LjL | contingo, but what happens to you if you become infected enough to be a threat to others? i might need to reword that slightly to make the point exactly, but that's the general fear i have with authoritarian regimes, and also the conundrum: they tend to favor the community over the individual, which scares me as an individual. but at the same time, being somewhere where the individual is favored over the community may mean that the whole thing gets handled | 00:01 |
---|---|---|
LjL | disastrously. | 00:01 |
contingo | yeah, well that's where I have the unfair advantages I alluded to earlier | 00:01 |
LjL | contingo, also, they've interviewed three virologists here, and they've said three different things and started arguing with one another on the screen. one could debate both the merits and the choreography of something like that | 00:02 |
contingo | I would expect that, because they're scientists... virology is a hard science insofar as the biology is concerned, and consensus is easier on that bit, but public health policy and what to actually do, is at best a soft social science and at worst a total mess of irreconcilable interests | 00:07 |
contingo | I would expect the UK to be very badly prepared and under-resourced in dealing with this | 00:08 |
contingo | whereas Singapore is obsessed with planning and preparedness, has huge national stockpiles of everything, a very obedient population, and was already being praised by world health academics long before this as being the only nation to really learn the lessons of SARS and get ready for "disease X" | 00:09 |
contingo | this is only the beginning of the list of reasons in favor of my staying there, but yeah | 00:10 |
twomoon | by contemplating air travel you're putting yourself in exactly the demographic that is most susceptible to this disease | 00:11 |
contingo | wow, a mere act of contemplation puts me at higher risk eh? XD | 00:12 |
twomoon | sure | 00:12 |
contingo | OK, noted, how much did my risk just go up by? | 00:13 |
LjL | twomoon: I don't think that's how probability works | 00:13 |
LjL | If anything you may *infer* a probability from his statement | 00:14 |
LjL | But his actual chances aren't changing an iota | 00:14 |
LjL | They'll change if and when he actually does fly | 00:14 |
twomoon | that is how probability works. your mindset changes your probability of doing shit | 00:15 |
LjL | If anything then that's how psychology workd | 00:16 |
twomoon | this isn't a time for being pedantic ljl =/ | 00:16 |
contingo | your mindset is putting you in the demographic of people whose level of stress significantly compounds whatever illness they get | 00:16 |
LjL | But I'd say that by NOT contemplating, or more specifically, by refusing to even contemplate some of the available options, you'd be putting yourself in the dangerous position of those who don't make a choice based on all the options | 00:17 |
contingo | the demographic most susceptible to this disease are people 70+ years old | 00:17 |
contingo | are you claiming act of contemplating taking a plane flight increases my susceptibility to the virus to the extent of having aged by thirty years? | 00:18 |
twomoon | lol | 00:19 |
LjL | contingo: trust me, it takes at least thirty years of obsessively contemplating too much to age an additional thirty years from it | 00:20 |
twomoon | i suspect that when it's all said and done the demographic most susceptible are those who live near international airports. of course among that crowd, age will be a factor in the final mortality figures | 00:21 |
LjL | contingo: also the virus will probably card you before entering | 00:21 |
twomoon | will be those* | 00:21 |
LjL | The mortality is *much* higher in older people though, so it'd take infection rates to be *much* higher in those places to skew that | 00:22 |
twomoon | well the point is that i'm just talking about catching the virus, not dying from it | 00:22 |
LjL | But catching it is all around irrelevant especially in a long term scenario where around 50% of everyone catches it | 00:23 |
twomoon | oh ok good point | 00:23 |
LjL | Catching it may not even give you discernible symptoms in most cases, for all we know | 00:24 |
contingo | the spanish flu had nearly complete global penetration, even to the most remote pacific islands, in an era before widespread plane travel for tourism and so forth, with rural areas reporting infection rates comparable to urban centres | 00:24 |
contingo | so I suspect you are wrong | 00:25 |
contingo | that graphic at the top of one of the cornavirus subreddits yesterday was interesting though | 00:25 |
LjL | contingo: remind me what sort of thing it was | 00:25 |
contingo | CDC official guidance on the location of plane passengers around an infected individual that it should be policy to track down | 00:26 |
LjL | Also Brainstorm, post news ffs | 00:26 |
LjL | Oh :D | 00:26 |
contingo | versus a map of an actual plane flight seating where someone had SARS | 00:26 |
LjL | I don't think I saw that | 00:26 |
LjL | contingo: did they match? | 00:26 |
contingo | no, they were a comi-tragic mismatch XD | 00:27 |
contingo | let me find it | 00:27 |
contingo | here https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/eyu8vs/cdcs_plane_seating_diagram_versus_reality_sars/ | 00:28 |
LjL | contingo: err I'm missing something, it says 2 row and it's 2, rows in the real-scenario graph, but it looks center plus side rows in the guidance graph | 00:31 |
LjL | contingo: anyway I have no clear idea why they'd even think there's a proximity function when air in an airplane is circulating all over the place... | 00:32 |
LjL | Are we still believing the "only direct droplets carry it" fable? ;( | 00:32 |
contingo | i'm sure they'll be forthcoming if you ring them for clarification | 00:33 |
LjL | :p | 00:33 |
LjL | hi | 00:46 |
jcay | hi | 00:46 |
jcay | cool | 00:46 |
LjL | now that you're here, fix my bot, it isn't doing its workings | 00:46 |
jcay | you made the bot to post statistics | 00:46 |
jcay | ah | 00:47 |
LjL | not yet no | 00:47 |
Albright | There has been a confirmed case in the rural northern California county where I grew up and where my parents still live. Kind of surprising because it's a pretty rural place. | 00:47 |
LjL | the bot *should* be posting news from RSS feeds but it's being stubborn again | 00:47 |
LjL | i did have in mind to add "%cases <country>" type statistics though | 00:47 |
jcay | Albright: probably somebody travelled there | 00:47 |
LjL | but first things first | 00:47 |
jcay | Albright: sorry to hear that ;/ | 00:47 |
Albright | jcay: Apparently the… victim? did return from a trip to China. A little surprising since there's effectively no Chinese immigrant population there, but who knows. | 00:48 |
LjL | patient | 00:48 |
LjL | let's keep them alive for now | 00:48 |
Albright | There's no direct flights from the airport there. The person must have taken a puddlejumper from Seattle or SF or LA. | 00:49 |
Albright | Patient. Yes. That's a better word. | 00:49 |
jcay | it seems death rate is 9% | 00:49 |
LjL | woah there now | 00:49 |
LjL | death rate isn't 9% | 00:49 |
twomoon | where Albright? | 00:49 |
jcay | isn't? | 00:49 |
LjL | death rate is mostly a bit unknown, but probably less than 9% | 00:50 |
LjL | big* unknown | 00:50 |
Albright | twomoon: Humboldt county, California. | 00:50 |
twomoon | are you talking about Humbolt? | 00:50 |
LjL | where did you hear 9%? | 00:50 |
jcay | LjL: ah, I get it | 00:50 |
Albright | Yes. | 00:50 |
jcay | LjL: here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ | 00:50 |
twomoon | i didn't know how to spellt Humboldt | 00:50 |
sneep | jcay: you need to read the fineprint | 00:50 |
LjL | jcay, okay that's one of the sites i have in the topic, the actual data are fine, but there's more than one way to divide something by something | 00:51 |
jcay | LjL: well, yeah | 00:51 |
jcay | but for numbers we have | 00:51 |
LjL | jcay, most of the time, the figure you'll hear is deaths/cases, which ends up being 2 or 3% for Wuhan, and less than 1% for the rest of the world. now, that division works *after* a pandemic, but *during* it, it's probably underestimating (but there are other factors that may cause an overestimate!) - or, you can do deaths/(deaths+recovered), which gives you a much scarier 10% or so, BUT you have to consider that the graph of recoveries is growing much | 00:52 |
LjL | faster than the graph of deaths, so this figure is getting lower over time | 00:52 |
jcay | LjL: alright | 00:53 |
LjL | jcay, the other thing to consider is that there are pretty strong indications that many of the infections are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and don't actually end up in the case list, and that would make the rate lower | 00:53 |
jcay | does that mean the carrier doesn't get sick? | 00:53 |
LjL | personally i expect the final figure to be around 2-4% anyway. but that's a guess, based on gut feeling. the truth is that based on the data, we don't know. 2% and 10% are two possible numbers we get from the data, but they don't mean much | 00:53 |
LjL | jcay, yes, or they get sick so mildly they mistake it for a cold | 00:54 |
jcay | LjL: ah | 00:54 |
LjL | jcay, the big discriminator is fever / no fever, since authorities are using this as the deciding factor on whether to isolate you (at least in China, but mostly everywhere) | 00:54 |
LjL | if you don't get a fever but are still infected, you probably won't be a "case" | 00:54 |
LjL | it's posited that >90% of infected get a fever, but i dunno really | 00:54 |
jcay | yeah, very unlikely | 00:55 |
LjL | many things are just "posited" so far | 00:55 |
jcay | LjL: any ideas about the incubation period? | 00:55 |
jcay | it said it's very big range | 00:56 |
LjL | jcay, do you want me to confirm what you already know, i.e. that we don't know, or do you want me to try fixing the bot so it gives us more data? | 00:56 |
LjL | nah i'm kidding | 00:56 |
LjL | but really, yes, it's a big range | 00:56 |
LjL | i don't have better info | 00:56 |
jcay | yeah, sorry for asking | 00:56 |
LjL | nah | 00:56 |
LjL | i was just trying to lighten it up | 00:56 |
contingo | careful, lightening up will put you in the most susceptible demographic | 00:57 |
jcay | nah, I am about to watch some movies and head into bed | 00:57 |
Albright | So… are we prepping? I was shopping butane camping stoves on Amazon earlier. | 00:58 |
jcay | nobody knows I guess | 00:58 |
LjL | okay, bot restarted, let's see | 00:58 |
contingo | yeah we are prepping | 00:58 |
LjL | i'm not prepping, i missed my time window | 00:58 |
twomoon | i feel bad ljl | 00:59 |
LjL | jcay, if you are the kind of person who frets, that's probably the best idea (though clearly i'm not doing it, and clearly i fret) | 00:59 |
twomoon | if i had only told you a week prior | 00:59 |
LjL | twomoon, i knew a week prior. i knew a month prior | 00:59 |
LjL | i just didn't want to antagonize my parents | 00:59 |
LjL | and/or worry too much | 00:59 |
LjL | but i pay for it by worrying more now | 00:59 |
twomoon | you could have gotten fifty kilos of pasta and beans | 00:59 |
jcay | LjL: nah, I know in your contry it's much worse now ;/ | 00:59 |
LjL | jcay, well, in my area specifically ;( | 00:59 |
jcay | :( | 00:59 |
LjL | twomoon, i am still hopeful that food isn't going to be a primary problem | 01:00 |
twomoon | i could have convinced you based on my modeling | 01:00 |
contingo | btw ##flashlight generally has very good advice about camping / outdoors and related supplies that may be relevant | 01:00 |
twomoon | i could have overruled your parents | 01:00 |
contingo | in addition to flashlights | 01:00 |
LjL | twomoon, Wuhan still has enough electricity, gas, water and food to serve its residents | 01:00 |
LjL | contingo, does it still have a ryaxnb? | 01:00 |
LjL | i assume not, since he's not spoken to me in ages | 01:00 |
twomoon | yes that's true i just hope the italian gov stocked up on flour | 01:00 |
LjL | lol | 01:00 |
LjL | we are physically able to eat other things you know | 01:00 |
twomoon | ok yes | 01:01 |
contingo | no LjL, it jumps from plum to SammysHP | 01:02 |
LjL | i'm afraid (or glad?) i don't know those | 01:03 |
sneep | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1 here's an article (not peer-reviewed yet) i saw yesterday that puts the figure at 4.8% | 01:03 |
sneep | Fever 90.9%, cough 70.8%, muscle fatigue 41%, ARDS 14.8%, abnormal chest CT 95.6% | 01:05 |
LjL | sneep, i guess the last one is the reason the Chinese government changed protocols to allow an abormal CT to count as a positive test | 01:06 |
LjL | 4.8% sounds like a plausible figure... plausibly uncomfortable :\ | 01:06 |
jcay | it said 0.2% if you are younger than 40 | 01:08 |
LjL | yeah, my parents are older than 70 though | 01:08 |
jcay | mine too | 01:09 |
sneep | I wonder if the 4.4% without the abnormal chest CT have any of the other symptoms | 01:11 |
LjL | sneep, at a guess, maybe, if the virus unusually infects the higher respiratory trait, making it behave more like a cold | 01:13 |
contingo | interesting leading graphic: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-latest-updates-who-mission-director-warns-world-is-simply-not-ready | 01:15 |
LjL | contingo, do you think the WHO could possibly stop swinging from "stay calm everybody, it's no huge deal" to "we aren't ready we're all gonna die"? | 01:16 |
contingo | I will put in a request | 01:16 |
LjL | like you know, being the WHO, they could use some kind of sliding window where they average their sentiments on the matter | 01:16 |
Albright | I think you might be getting answers depending on how corrupt the official who is speaking is. | 01:17 |
LjL | contingo, so if it starts "severe" it's about a cointoss | 01:18 |
LjL | Albright, and whom by? | 01:18 |
Albright | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwFTZawOc9k - Coronavirus: How WHO Corruption Helped It Spread | 01:18 |
LjL | i think contingo is corrupting everyone to make people stay away from Singapore so he can fly there and be alone | 01:18 |
contingo | my family friend who advised the WHO on swine flu antivirals got paralyzed after a surfing accident last year | 01:18 |
contingo | but I could still ask him his opinion of the current leadership | 01:19 |
Albright | LjL: Yeah, exactly. If you take that vid at face value, the WHO leader has some definite conflicts of interest re the CCP. | 01:19 |
LjL | :\ | 01:20 |
LjL | at both | 01:20 |
LjL | to the new joiners: the topic has a list of links i found encompassing and useful. feel free to propose more. i'm thinking i'll add that only slightly scary non peer reviewed study sneep provided for now | 01:21 |
Albright | LjL: Just gave it a click and got a 404. | 01:22 |
LjL | Albright, that's the wrong error | 01:22 |
LjL | what's the code for "LjL is an idiot"? | 01:22 |
LjL | i'll /topic it hopefully correctly in a minute | 01:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 00:16 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Americans are warned coronavirus spread is not a matter of if, but when - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: Americans are warned coronavirus spread is not a matter of if, but when CBS News C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S. The New York Times CDC outlines what closing [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cbSZ66 | 01:27 |
LjL | hurray, a working bot (maybe) | 01:27 |
LjL | (actually i don't think so, it's probably a fluke) | 01:27 |
Albright | %more | 01:28 |
Brainstorm | Albright, [...] schools, businesses would look like in a pandemic CNBC Coronavirus could turn into global pandemic, officials say | ABC News ABC News Coronavirus and what needs to be done to get in front of global pandemics | TheHill The Hill View Full Coverage on Google News → https://paste.ee/p/3rhbU | 01:28 |
LjL | the Google News feed is a bit hard on the eye | 01:28 |
jcay | LjL: don't forget to get some sleep | 01:28 |
jcay | don't code the bot the whole night :) | 01:28 |
LjL | yeah i have a bit of a headache too, i'll try not to stay awake as long as last night | 01:28 |
contingo | I'm gonna go play my disinfected piano | 01:29 |
LjL | jcay, no i posted on the twitter page for it that i'm in an affected area and may not be able to maintain it, so i'll just say screw it if there are other impending matters | 01:29 |
LjL | contingo, are you serious on the adjective | 01:29 |
jcay | LjL: nods | 01:29 |
contingo | well I guess so, but it's just incidental. It was time to clean it anyway | 01:30 |
LjL | ah | 01:30 |
LjL | bot playetit | 01:30 |
LjL | bon | 01:30 |
LjL | i ruined it | 01:30 |
jcay | I wash my hands every half an hour or so :DD but I have had this custom since long time | 01:31 |
Albright | https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-latest-updates-who-mission-director-warns-world-is-simply-not-ready?page=with:block-5e55b48b8f0811db2fafe8e9#block-5e55b48b8f0811db2fafe8e9 - May have a patient in Brazil now. Would be the first in South America. | 01:31 |
LjL | jcay, that may be a bit harsh on your skin in general if you aren't touching anything in particular... i mean, at this particular time, wash them every five minutes for what i'm concerned, but in general... | 01:31 |
jcay | LjL: I've got a good soap | 01:32 |
jcay | it dries the skin, but not so badly | 01:32 |
LjL | what do you think is different between Italy and the rest of Europe? for a while, we officially only had a couple of isolated cases, and so did the other countries. then suddenly we had TONS. is it really, as some say, that we're running a lot more tests, and other countries aren't, or did something just go wrong? (although i'm convinced it's a matter of time for everywhere) | 01:33 |
LjL | jcay, water itself kinda dries the skin though, as counterintuitive as that be | 01:33 |
LjL | anyway, let's have this discussion again when there's not a possibly deadly new virus around :P | 01:34 |
sneep | maybe the virus spreads better in sunny italian weather | 01:34 |
LjL | that would be a pretty big issue | 01:34 |
LjL | many are counting (or at least hoping) on it *dying down* a bit with warmer weather | 01:34 |
LjL | although personally i don't know what evidence they're on | 01:35 |
LjL | if instead it gets worse, like MERS... ugh | 01:35 |
jcay | ok, I am off now, watching a few videos until I sleep :) | 01:35 |
LjL | but anyway, under that thesis, southern italy should have been hit first... although admittedly i haven't been following the weather :P it's been sunny up here | 01:36 |
LjL | jcay, goodnight | 01:36 |
sneep | maybe italian people hug each other more | 01:37 |
LjL | if anything we spit more at each other in the process of yelling | 01:37 |
sneep | lol | 01:38 |
LjL | my jaw is tense as fuck | 01:38 |
wwinfo[m] | here's a question - if everyone is prepping by buying pasta, what do Italians do 🤔 | 01:39 |
sneep | sars went away in may or june | 01:39 |
sneep | singapore has pretty hot weather and they aren't seeing much spread at the moment | 01:40 |
wwinfo[m] | <sneep "singapore has pretty hot weather"> instead of that 1 prostitute infecting like 11 customers? | 01:40 |
LjL | i'm still not convinced Brainstorm is working, so i'm restarting it again, bear with me if it posts the same bit of news again repeatedly please | 01:41 |
LjL | wwinfo[m], we're prepping by buying all sorts of fresh produce for no discernible reason, as far as i can gather | 01:42 |
LjL | sneep, these days it's around 15 to 18°C tops here, not sure about the lows | 01:42 |
LjL | %wa high and low temperature in milan | 01:43 |
LjL | inbefore: no hits | 01:43 |
LjL | also inbefore the bot isn't actually running | 01:43 |
LjL | Brainstorm! | 01:43 |
Brainstorm | LjL! | 01:43 |
Brainstorm | LjL, failed to get any hits! | 01:43 |
LjL | right on the first | 01:43 |
LjL | https://milanocam.it will have a better answer anyway | 01:43 |
LjL | hmm, a bit of fog is nice for epidemic ambience | 01:44 |
LjL | well... still 11°C at 2am ought to mean we're safe, right? | 01:44 |
sneep | i have a friend who works at prada japan | 01:45 |
sneep | 11C is pretty cold | 01:45 |
LjL | for the middle of the night, in february? | 01:45 |
LjL | also look at that pressure going down yikes | 01:45 |
LjL | i get now why they're forecasting high winds for tomorrow | 01:45 |
sneep | i don't think the virus cares about the time of day :p | 01:45 |
LjL | well i mean, it touched 19.6°C high yesterday https://www.milanocam.it/Weather/aab_images/vws1771.jpg that's pretty high in my book, unless it's July... | 01:46 |
LjL | admittedly that's a bit of an outlier compared to the other days | 01:47 |
sneep | it's officially warm when it doesn't get below 25 at night | 01:48 |
sneep | singapore qualifies! | 01:48 |
LjL | that's officially too freaking hot :P | 01:50 |
LjL | well, if it does make the virus go away, sign me in, though | 01:50 |
LjL | we have already one here rooting for singapore as the place of choice to flee the virus so maybe you'll be right in the end | 01:51 |
sneep | The reason influenza is seasonal is: "Flu viruses are more stable in cold air, and low humidity also helps the virus particles remain in the air. That is because the viruses float in the air in little respiratory droplets, Dr. Palese said. When the air is humid, those droplets pick up water, grow larger and fall to the ground." | 01:52 |
Albright | Singapore might get too crowded. Will the Philippines work? :) | 01:52 |
sneep | It seems possible that the first SARS outbreak ended in the same way, so I personally have hope that the current outbreak will be gone in a couple months | 01:55 |
sneep | (I didn't research this into terrible detail) | 01:56 |
LjL | sneep, could be, but what i researched into shallow detail is that MERS, while also being a coronavirus, started in the summer and is slightly worse in the summer | 01:56 |
sneep | i never really looked into mers | 02:13 |
sneep | I was near Hong Kong in spring of 2003 though | 02:13 |
sneep | Man that's 17 years ago | 02:14 |
sneep | o-o | 02:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 01:06 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 169 new cases in South Korea, making a national total of 1,146 — from The Guardian at 01:06: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/GCkbPC | 02:22 |
LjL | sneep, MERS is pretty scary but only if you're in a hospital | 02:28 |
LjL | nearly only, anyway | 02:29 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 01:17 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, la mappa interattiva dei contagi: nuovi casi in Toscana, Liguria e Sicilia - Il Fatto Quotidiano — from The Guardian at 01:17: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/SRjzeN | 02:47 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 01:39 UTC: (news): Live updates: Spread of coronavirus in U.S. appears inevitable, health officials warn; U.S. financial markets drop sharply - The Washington Post — from The Guardian at 01:39: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/LRZ4FD | 02:59 |
LjL | Spec, want to make me an "is it the apocalypse yet" module? | 03:01 |
LjL | i'm busy doing the one to parse morbidity data | 03:02 |
LjL | sneep, do you have a take on humidifiers? i have one, i don't love to use it because it gets really filled with this reddish slimey thing which i can only presume is bacteria, and it's hard to clean. but if our supposition above is true, it might help with the virus. i don't suppose, like bacteria, viruses can reproduce in plastic... | 03:05 |
LjL | this still feels a bit surreal at times | 03:11 |
LjL | my mood keeps moving places | 03:11 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 02:18 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, la mappa interattiva dei contagi: nuovi casi in Toscana, Liguria e Sicilia - Il Fatto Quotidiano — from The Guardian at 02:18: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/SRjzeN | 03:24 |
LjL | %data Italy | 03:53 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 322 cases, 10 deaths, 1 recoveries as of ['Last Update'] | 03:53 |
LjL | %data Italy | 03:54 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 322 cases, 10 deaths, 1 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T18:55:32 | 03:54 |
LjL | that'll do | 03:54 |
LjL | %data China | 03:54 |
Brainstorm | LjL: China not found, try a country name. | 03:54 |
LjL | well... | 03:54 |
LjL | %data Hubei | 03:54 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Hubei, Mainland China, there are 64786 cases, 2563 deaths, 18971 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T15:23:04 | 03:54 |
LjL | %data China | 03:54 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Hubei, Mainland China, there are 64786 cases, 2563 deaths, 18971 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T15:23:04 | 03:54 |
LjL | %data Beijing | 03:55 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Beijing, Mainland China, there are 400 cases, 4 deaths, 215 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T01:33:02 | 03:55 |
Albright | %data Mainland China | 04:21 |
Brainstorm | Albright: In Hubei, Mainland China, there are 64786 cases, 2563 deaths, 18971 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T15:23:04 | 04:21 |
Albright | %data Shanghai | 04:21 |
Brainstorm | Albright: In Shanghai, Mainland China, there are 336 cases, 3 deaths, 268 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T06:33:02 | 04:21 |
Albright | %data Tainan | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | Albright: Tainan not found, try a country name. | 04:23 |
Albright | %data Taipei | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | Albright: Taipei not found, try a country name. | 04:23 |
Albright | %data Taiwan | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | Albright: In Taiwan, Taiwan, there are 31 cases, 1 deaths, 5 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T06:53:02 | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 03:43 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Americans are warned coronavirus spread is not a matter of if, but when - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: Americans are warned coronavirus spread is not a matter of if, but when CBS News C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S. The New York Times CDC official warns [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cbSZ66 | 04:50 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 04:07 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Vietnam, which had 16 cases, now has no active cases after all 16 are released from hospital with no deaths. Source: JHU CSSE — from The Guardian at 04:07: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/80inMw | 05:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 04:19 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Imgur: The magic of the Internet — from The Guardian at 04:19: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/86PEDQ | 05:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 04:51 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Coronavirus infects US soldier for first time, military says | Fox News — from The Guardian at 04:51: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/lhrWEI | 05:51 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 04:51 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: All elementary and junior high schools closed until further notice in Hokkaido, Japan — from The Guardian at 04:51: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/QkzbP6 | 06:03 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 05:11 UTC: SF Mayor London Breed Declares Local Emergency Amid Coronavirus Outbreak - NBC Bay Area: SF Mayor London Breed Declares Local Emergency Amid Coronavirus Outbreak NBC Bay Area San Francisco declares state of emergency over coronavirus | TheHill The Hill San Francisco Declares State Of Emergency After CDC Predicts Spread [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rdYEa1 | 06:16 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 06:03 UTC: Live updates: Coronavirus fears push Asian markets lower as outbreak spreads - The Washington Post: Live updates: Coronavirus fears push Asian markets lower as outbreak spreads The Washington Post CDC outlines pandemic planning, as fears send stocks plunging for second day CNBC World battles coronavirus outbreak - BBC [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/X8MLwd | 07:05 |
sneep | LjL: Yeah, I use a humidifer | 07:22 |
sneep | LjL: Our company recommended that we use one, and I guess the reasoning is exactly that | 07:23 |
sneep | LjL: Mine isn't ultrasonic, it actually boils the water | 07:24 |
sneep | LjL: There are positive and negative aspects when choosing a humidifier. The boiler type obviously uses _way_ more energy, but that's okay IMO because I need my house heated anyway. | 07:26 |
sneep | LjL: With ultrasonic humidifiers you can get mold and (allegedly) you may end up with a fine coating of minerals on your stuff. With boiler humidifiers, the minerals end up inside the humidifier | 07:28 |
sneep | Depends on the water you use I guess | 07:28 |
sneep | LjL: Anyway, both need to be cleaned | 07:29 |
twomoon | what's a good humidifier of the boiler type | 07:32 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 06:51 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 3 new cases in Bahrain — from The Guardian at 06:51: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/Sh1P0p | 07:54 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 07:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, anche Mosca sconsiglia viaggi in Italia. Undici morti e 325 casi in 9 regioni - Il Messaggero — from The Guardian at 07:30: How to protect yourself from coronavirus → https://is.gd/l3MAQn | 08:44 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 07:52 UTC: Live updates: Coronavirus fears push Asian markets lower as outbreak spreads - The Washington Post: Live updates: Coronavirus fears push Asian markets lower as outbreak spreads The Washington Post CDC outlines pandemic planning, as fears send stocks plunging for second day CNBC Coronavirus: World must prepare for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/X8MLwd | 08:56 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 08:02 UTC: Live updates: Coronavirus fears push Asian markets lower as outbreak spreads - The Washington Post: Live updates: Coronavirus fears push Asian markets lower as outbreak spreads The Washington Post CDC outlines pandemic planning, as fears send stocks plunging for second day CNBC Coronavirus: World must prepare for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/X8MLwd | 09:05 |
contingo | I wonder if this channel size over time correlates with viral penetration over time | 11:46 |
theglass | very likely | 13:14 |
sneep | twomoon: dunno, i think they tend to be cheap | 13:44 |
LjL | %tell contingo: now i'll have to code that correlation into the bot, THANKS | 14:10 |
Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around. | 14:10 |
LjL | theglass, so today's rumor is that the government has exaggerated so they'll cancel all the draconian measures? just after they've seemingly started working (in terms of case growth being limited)? | 14:13 |
LjL | %wa 11/325 | 14:14 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (11/325): Decimal approximation: 0.033846153846153846153846153846153846153846153846153846153... → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=11%2F325 | 14:14 |
LjL | i can't into maths but that's high | 14:14 |
LjL | Wuhan-high, not restoftheworld-high | 14:14 |
LjL | okay the sample is still small | 14:14 |
LjL | ma proprio non darei il cessato allarme | 14:14 |
theglass | uhm | 14:14 |
theglass | non ho letto ancora sta cosa | 14:15 |
LjL | theglass, neanch'io direttamente, ho parlato con mio padre che segue più assiduamente di me (anche perché si spaventa di meno) | 14:15 |
LjL | %data Italy | 14:16 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 322 cases, 10 deaths, 1 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T18:55:32 | 14:16 |
LjL | 1 recoverIES! yay | 14:17 |
wwinfo[m] | yeap the bot was programmed with too much optimism in mind | 14:18 |
wwinfo[m] | - coronavirus: Chang, so how infectious should I be? - Yes. | 14:18 |
LjL | wwinfo[m], i finished writing that at 4am and now i'm all sore, if i had programmed it with singulars and plurals i'd probably be spiking a fever and being taken into quarantine now :P | 14:19 |
LjL | %data Korea | 15:02 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, South Korea, there are 977 cases, 10 deaths, 22 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T08:13:19 | 15:02 |
LjL | theglass, look at that, our death rate is pretty scary in comparison | 15:02 |
LjL | maybe we're just having a lot of bad luck, but still | 15:02 |
LjL | i should probably make the bot calculate percentages there | 15:03 |
wwinfo[m] | %data Poland | 15:09 |
Brainstorm | wwinfo[m]: Poland not found, try a country name. | 15:09 |
wwinfo[m] | ok there, Gobbels | 15:09 |
wwinfo[m] | * ok there, Goebbels | 15:09 |
LjL | sorry :P | 15:12 |
LjL | i assume there aren't cases | 15:12 |
LjL | i'll change the error message | 15:12 |
wwinfo[m] | it's obvious, and I'm jk :) | 15:13 |
LjL | well it's still a bad error message, anyway i'm already editing the module | 15:14 |
LjL | for other things | 15:14 |
LjL | %cases China | 15:17 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Hubei, Mainland China, there are 64786 cases, 2563 deaths (4.0% of cases), 18971 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T15:23:04. | 15:17 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can broadly be expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 11.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 15:17 |
LjL | i'd like to have a "mortality based on deaths/cases_from_10_days_ago" (10 being the average time from diagnosis to death, not sure it's still estimate at 10), but that requires time series data and instead i only have latest data... | 15:19 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 15:01 UTC: (news): Live updates: Coronavirus fears spook markets as outbreak spreads; Trump calls news conference, accuses media of ‘panicking markets’ - The Washington Post — from The Guardian at 15:01: Coronavirus map: how Covid-19 is spreading across the world → https://is.gd/X8MLwd | 16:04 |
LjL | Okay face masks are a bitch to wear | 18:15 |
LjL | Fyi | 18:15 |
LjL | Especially if you're also wearing glasses | 18:15 |
LjL | Probably depends on the type to be fair | 18:15 |
LjL | why does the bot not post news, christ can i do a single thing well | 19:44 |
LjL | %cases Italy | 20:00 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 322 cases, 10 deaths (3.1% of cases), 1 recoveries as of 2020-02-25T18:55:32. | 20:00 |
Brainstorm | LjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 20:00 |
LjL | i don't think it should be stuck at the 25th... | 20:00 |
LjL | yeah it's definitely behind. i thought i was getting the same JHU data JHU was using :\ | 20:01 |
LjL | contingo, i don't suppose random/common antivirals like acyclovir have the remotest chance to be any use for this, do they | 20:15 |
contingo | i really don't think so | 20:16 |
contingo | find people with high blood pressure and steal their angiotensin II blockers | 20:17 |
LjL | contingo, that would be my parents, but i'm afraid they're prescribed something else | 20:17 |
contingo | and maybe some HIV antiretrovirals, idk | 20:17 |
LjL | contingo, maybe i should find people with HIV and flight to the last blood to get their antiretrovirals | 20:17 |
contingo | oh I Know | 20:17 |
LjL | also fight* | 20:18 |
contingo | just get HIV | 20:18 |
LjL | ... | 20:18 |
LjL | that was sort of the joke | 20:18 |
contingo | yes but also get really stressed about it to the point you have chronic hypertension | 20:18 |
LjL | oh | 20:18 |
contingo | then you can get everything | 20:18 |
LjL | i do have my blood pressure graphed by my blood pressure meter which has a usb connection | 20:18 |
contingo | I was working with the joke | 20:18 |
LjL | maybe i can get a hypertension prescription real quick | 20:19 |
contingo | maybe I can get one from a Nurse Practitioner | 20:19 |
contingo | I find them highly suggestible | 20:20 |
LjL | they can prescribe? | 20:20 |
contingo | they have a limited range of prescription ability | 20:21 |
LjL | didn't know that | 20:21 |
contingo | but I've got all sorts off them before | 20:21 |
LjL | they probably don't here | 20:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 20:16 UTC: San Francisco declares state of emergency over coronavirus. Here's what that means - CNN: San Francisco declares state of emergency over coronavirus. Here's what that means CNN San Francisco declares state of emergency over coronavirus Fox News San Francisco Declares State Of Emergency After CDC Predicts Spread Of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SmtqvH | 21:27 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 20:37 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets CBS News Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases Rise in Italy and Iran, and Spread to Other Countries The New York [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/UoaxE6 | 21:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 20:56 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 1 new case in Spain, total 13 — from The Guardian at 20:56: Six Nations to Stormzy: which events could be cancelled by coronavirus? → https://is.gd/KKjaao | 22:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 21:18 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets CBS News Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases Rise in Italy and Iran, and Spread to Other Countries The New York [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/UoaxE6 | 22:28 |
LjL | %title http://www.ansa.it/canale_saluteebenessere/notizie/sanita/2020/02/25/coronavirus-italia-_cd6f6294-4a0d-4645-b087-6cc2049ecfff.html | 22:44 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Couldn't load page from www.ansa.it (416: Requested Range Not Satisfiable). | 22:44 |
LjL | get stuffed you and your 416 | 22:45 |
LjL | Lombardy's region HQs have been closed down because someone tested positive, and the governor "has put himself under self-isolation" | 22:45 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 21:47 UTC: (news): The best defense against coronavirus - CNN — from The Guardian at 21:47: Six Nations to Stormzy: which events could be cancelled by coronavirus? → https://is.gd/gSr0a4 | 23:05 |
LjL | a goo offense? | 23:06 |
LjL | or a good one even | 23:06 |
LjL | contingo, despite this article now, i feel the moderate success with ebola and/or HIV medications that i gather is being obtained isn't resonating much in the media. do you think that might be intentional to avoid hoarding and consequent price soaring? | 23:07 |
contingo | I don't have a view really | 23:11 |
contingo | has anything that you get if you go on PreP been hypothesized to be useful? | 23:12 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 22:03 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets CBS News Coronavirus Sparks Talk of Global Recession and 'Economic Pandemic' as Stock Markets Dive Newsweek [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/UoaxE6 | 23:18 |
LjL | contingo, no, it's two different antivirals i'm afraid | 23:18 |
LjL | As of 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends two drug combinations for the use as PrEP for HIV/AIDS: the combination of tenofovir/emtricitabine, for example, in the form of Truvada, which is the brand name of the Gilead Sciences, or the tenofovir/lamivudine combination. | 23:19 |
LjL | while | 23:19 |
LjL | The Beijing branch of China's National Health Commission suggested the use of lopinavir/ritonavir as part of treatment plans in the absence of an approved drug for this indication.[61] The lopinavir/ritonavir combination and interferon can now be claimed for via health insurance in some countries.[62] | 23:19 |
LjL | now there may be other less popular options, don't make your life depend on my wikipediaing :P | 23:19 |
contingo | which HIV meds are of most interest then? | 23:28 |
LjL | contingo, the latter is what's being used now for coronavirus, i've just heard they've used them in italy too, on the initial couple of patients in Rome | 23:29 |
LjL | lopinavir/ritonavir, i'll double check | 23:29 |
contingo | oh right | 23:29 |
contingo | I'll ask my fam about ACE2 blocker availability there | 23:29 |
LjL | Lopinavir/ritonavir has been studied for it's anti-coronavirus activity.[18][19][20] | 23:30 |
LjL | As such, in late January 2020, Chinese medical researchers stated to the media that in exploratory research considering a selection of 30 drug candidates, three of them, remdesivir, chloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir, seemed to have "fairly good inhibitory effects" on SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture. Requests to start clinical testing were then submitted.[21] | 23:30 |
LjL | so there are another couple that are promising | 23:30 |
LjL | but those are also not the ones in PreP | 23:30 |
LjL | chloroquine is for malaria though | 23:30 |
LjL | As well as its anti-malaria action, chloroquine appears to have some antiviral effects,[36] etc | 23:31 |
LjL | remdesivir is the ebola one | 23:31 |
contingo | are they supposed to be taken as prophylactic, or really... I'm wondering how late after symptom onset could they be taken to be effective? | 23:38 |
contingo | reflecting on my Tamiflu experiences | 23:39 |
LjL | CNN: Coronavirus has now spread to every continent except Antarctica | 23:39 |
LjL | WHO: No no no no, it's not a pandemic, you see, that causes fear | 23:40 |
LjL | contingo, i assume you mean for covid-19, not for HIV/ebola/malaria? they're being used for treatment now... | 23:40 |
LjL | basically on the desperate cases, i understand | 23:40 |
LjL | "The crisis pushed into areas seen as among the worst-equipped to deal with an outbreak as well as some of the world’s richest nations, including South Korea and Italy." | 23:41 |
LjL | WHICH IS WHICH | 23:41 |
wwinfo[m] | is the vaccine/cure 2 years away or like 2 weeks? I read jurnos saying they made a possible vaccine/cure right now, and they start some trials - but the trials will take 2 years? | 23:42 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 22:40 UTC: (news): Live updates: New coronavirus case confirmed in U.S. as outbreak spreads; Trump calls news conference, accuses media of ‘panicking markets’ - The Washington Post — from The Guardian at 22:40: Six Nations to Stormzy: which events could be cancelled by coronavirus? → https://is.gd/X8MLwd | 23:42 |
contingo | I meant per individual case, but nm I will read up | 23:42 |
LjL | wwinfo[m], definitely more like 2 years, unless you believe in miracles | 23:42 |
LjL | maybe one if they cut corners | 23:43 |
contingo | let me put a modest stake on the 15 months from now square, please | 23:43 |
LjL | if we all start dying, maybe they'll just give us whatever they've got even if it kills us more, i dunno | 23:43 |
LjL | contingo, let me write a bot module for... no, no. | 23:44 |
contingo | lol | 23:44 |
contingo | you just sign up for whatever trial at that point | 23:44 |
LjL | and stab the other contenders if there's a numeric limit | 23:44 |
LjL | with a coronavirus-tainted needle | 23:45 |
LjL | just to make sure they do have it | 23:45 |
LjL | okay back to less morbid | 23:45 |
contingo | my friend's mom had early stage alzheimer's and I encouraged them to consider her joining a certain drug trial, but they decided against | 23:46 |
LjL | contingo, i'm sorry because i know you are short tempered with lack of acumen but i have no idea what you mean by per individual case... what i know is they are all medicines that have a tentative antiviral effect on sars-cov-2, and so far they've only been used in diagnosed cases at late stages, never for prevention | 23:46 |
LjL | contingo, i don't suppose that trial's still around? | 23:47 |
contingo | and indeed that drug trial has had to be extended and extended because of very low recruitment | 23:47 |
LjL | why is that | 23:47 |
contingo | no one wants to go on the trial, probably their GP | 23:47 |
LjL | contingo, well i mean, are there some glaring side effects | 23:47 |
contingo | *GPs advise against it | 23:47 |
LjL | anyway is the trial still extendeded | 23:48 |
LjL | and would you still advise joining it | 23:48 |
contingo | no, but it's a monotherapy trial, so you have to go off all other meds | 23:48 |
LjL | ah | 23:48 |
contingo | yeah I would | 23:48 |
LjL | i may know someone who may benefit from it | 23:48 |
contingo | no other available med for alzheimers is disease-modifying anyway | 23:48 |
contingo | at least get on a trial for something that's is attempting for disease modifying status | 23:49 |
LjL | well i don't know anything about any trials, thankfully i don't have alzheimer's among my many ailments, yet | 23:49 |
contingo | yes, that particular trial is still open | 23:49 |
LjL | country? | 23:49 |
contingo | they are still short on numbers and still recruiting | 23:49 |
contingo | it's worldwide, I'll link you | 23:50 |
LjL | contingo, would you talk to the person involved after i clear with them that it's okay to disclose? i may come up with good-sounding reasons to join it based on what i read but you'd probably do better... | 23:50 |
contingo | there's a lot of negative press around it too, make your own judgments first | 23:51 |
contingo | also, I'm an investor | 23:51 |
LjL | oh | 23:53 |
LjL | well, link me | 23:53 |
LjL | ... please | 23:53 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 22:41 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: Outbreak spreads in South Korea and Italy as CDC warning rattles markets CBS News Coronavirus: More New Cases Are Now Reported Outside China Than Inside NPR Coronavirus live updates: [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/UoaxE6 | 23:55 |
contingo | before I link you | 23:55 |
contingo | I just want to get to the point of what I was saying | 23:56 |
LjL | sure | 23:56 |
contingo | which is complaining that that family is complaining to me that not enough is being done now in terms of alzheimer's research and why isthe potential date for that drug to be commercially available put back and back | 23:56 |
LjL | ... | 23:58 |
LjL | forgive them because they forget | 23:58 |
LjL | s/because/for/ | 23:59 |
Brainstorm | LjL meant to say: forgive them for they forget | 23:59 |
LjL | it's all more biblical with for | 23:59 |
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