LjL | contingo, so much for "no exponential growth" really https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy/0/d52da948489fe757a16324951ea1aceff2807c71.png | 00:14 |
---|---|---|
LjL | i mean yeah it does look kinda linear before today | 00:15 |
LjL | so let's change the criteria to make it linear again, eh? | 00:15 |
RougeRR | hey | 00:16 |
RougeRR | hows it goin? | 00:16 |
RougeRR | thought you guys might be interested to hear, my cousin is in the Tenerife hotel | 00:16 |
contingo | just use log-log | 00:16 |
RougeRR | im also prepping a bit | 00:16 |
contingo | interesting, what's his info from the inside? is it consistent with reports? | 00:17 |
RougeRR | hes not too worried for himself, very hit and healthy. late 30s | 00:17 |
contingo | I heard 50 had been released | 00:17 |
RougeRR | emmm | 00:17 |
RougeRR | he says the staff are actually very good and doing the best they can | 00:17 |
RougeRR | and agrees the containment is a joke internally | 00:18 |
RougeRR | hes trying to avoid contact where possible | 00:18 |
RougeRR | hes on his own, i feel for him. only went for 4 days | 00:18 |
RougeRR | the thing is, the containment is very inconsistent. staff seem to come/go. and those who arrived after a certain date can be released? | 00:19 |
RougeRR | yet theyve all been mingling together | 00:19 |
RougeRR | he has been told that if any test positive that they could be further quarantined again, and if he comes back to UK he will quite likely face further 14 day quarantine. hes lucky he can afford to be off work | 00:20 |
RougeRR | Im in a weird/unique situation too | 00:20 |
RougeRR | I live in a small 5 mile island off the coast of france | 00:21 |
RougeRR | our supply chain is very susceptible to disruption, lot of london air travel, elderly population and my dad is on immunosupressants | 00:21 |
contingo | are you in the channel islands? | 00:22 |
contingo | thanks for all the info | 00:22 |
contingo | RougeRR | 00:23 |
contingo | I have family in Alderney | 00:23 |
RougeRR | contingo, | 00:23 |
RougeRR | yes | 00:23 |
RougeRR | im jersey | 00:23 |
contingo | for some generations | 00:23 |
RougeRR | ahh cool | 00:23 |
RougeRR | thats interesting | 00:23 |
contingo | so they're even more isolated | 00:23 |
RougeRR | yeah i originally moved here as a kid in 2001, but was living in uk for past 2 years | 00:24 |
contingo | in fact my great aunt there is 105 | 00:24 |
RougeRR | came back to see my folks and study a bit before deciding how to deal with the brexit mess | 00:24 |
RougeRR | wow | 00:24 |
RougeRR | thats pretty cool, and pretty old | 00:24 |
RougeRR | alderny is actually the only channel island ive not been too | 00:24 |
LjL | Tenerife hotel is the one lock down because of my fellow citymen? | 00:25 |
RougeRR | yeah | 00:25 |
RougeRR | my cousin lives london, got stuck there | 00:25 |
RougeRR | last few days i've started being a bit more 'worried'. I'm fairly rational and always looked at this rationally | 00:26 |
RougeRR | im going to stock up at the supermarket tommorrow on tinned goods for a month or so, as well as basic meds for me and my dad | 00:26 |
LjL | eventually everyone becomes like me when it gets bad enough | 00:26 |
LjL | i'll content myself with that | 00:26 |
contingo | well Jersey is the island out of all those to be stuck on, right XD | 00:26 |
RougeRR | ill quit my part time job if it hits the channel islands | 00:26 |
RougeRR | haha contingo yeah one of better ones | 00:27 |
RougeRR | we live rurally too(ish) | 00:27 |
RougeRR | if the infection hits here, im going to just hunker down | 00:27 |
contingo | my aunt too, remarkable she is still independent | 00:27 |
contingo | I live in London zone 2, and I'm not sure what I'm doing yet | 00:28 |
contingo | I have a lot of rice, lemsips, and flashlights | 00:28 |
RougeRR | limit social interaction. my parents are retired, im just working part time | 00:29 |
RougeRR | 2 secs brb | 00:29 |
LjL | you're in Jersey and you're able of limiting interaction, what the hell should i do here in Milan living with parents who seem to find it perfectly fine to keep going to supermarkets and pharmacies and GP offices repeatedly on a daily basis :( | 00:31 |
RougeRR | contingo, i dont think food is a big issue london | 00:32 |
LjL | he's got prepper genes i believe | 00:32 |
contingo | i had the rice anyway | 00:32 |
RougeRR | its okay, i mean nothing wrong with it :p | 00:33 |
contingo | it's Italian actually | 00:33 |
LjL | i'd rather have some more prepper genes currently | 00:33 |
RougeRR | im only buying food here. because if the boats are cancelled. then 2-3 days later, the supermarket shelves are starting show gaps/. | 00:33 |
LjL | contingo, in that case, it's from *northern* Italy, because that's where our rice is produced | 00:33 |
LjL | you better hope the virus doesn't reproduce in rice cells! | 00:33 |
LjL | which does seem to be a bit of a stretch | 00:34 |
RougeRR | but yeah, if you are healthy. you are likely to be fine | 00:34 |
RougeRR | its the secondary and tertiary impacts | 00:34 |
RougeRR | and people like my dad or the elderly | 00:34 |
contingo | do you still have a big cattle/dairy industry there? | 00:34 |
RougeRR | aye yeah | 00:34 |
RougeRR | lots of cows | 00:34 |
LjL | my parents... if even i manage to convince them they've been under-reacting so far, what does that achieve? make them panic? | 00:34 |
LjL | meh | 00:34 |
RougeRR | our crops suffered this year so far. the rain waterlogged the fields | 00:35 |
RougeRR | LjL, how old are they? | 00:35 |
LjL | 70 and 75, the latter a smoker | 00:35 |
contingo | they might let you buy more cool medical gadgets | 00:35 |
LjL | contingo, that's... a decent point | 00:35 |
RougeRR | eh yeah id probably say they should limit social interaction | 00:35 |
RougeRR | like yes. the younger gen have to go to work | 00:35 |
RougeRR | and keep going | 00:35 |
LjL | i've tried, they get mad. maybe i've not tried mildly enough, but i get mad easily too. | 00:36 |
contingo | hopefully it doesn't come to people lassoing cows | 00:37 |
RougeRR | i mean its not as bad if they avoid sick people and practice good hygine | 00:37 |
LjL | RougeRR, yeah you'd figure they'd do that. tell the 75 year old smoker with a stubborn head | 00:37 |
RougeRR | contingo, if we have to slaughter the cows we are fuucked already ;) | 00:37 |
RougeRR | LjL, aye i know the type | 00:37 |
RougeRR | again, i dont think we should all panic | 00:37 |
LjL | i panic for much less, i'm actually being calm and rational, you should see me when i'm freaking out | 00:38 |
RougeRR | i think limit movement where possible, practice good hygiene, buy 2-3 months long term food, basic medication supplies, long term meds for those who need | 00:38 |
RougeRR | and try to limi social interaction for most vulnerable | 00:39 |
LjL | check, check, check, check, check... "check" means "nope, gotta work on that", right? not a native speaker here | 00:39 |
RougeRR | hehe | 00:39 |
RougeRR | not quite ;) | 00:39 |
LjL | yeah, well, let's say my dad has *probably* been convinced to wash his hands by now. with soap. which is an important detail. | 00:40 |
LjL | that's something, but we're a bit late on the training | 00:40 |
RougeRR | tbh ive only started being bettet last few days | 00:40 |
RougeRR | lol i have a sniffle atm | 00:40 |
contingo | I have an achey cold | 00:40 |
RougeRR | freaked out then realised, its a rare symptom lol | 00:40 |
LjL | yeah i have no idea how to "avoid ever touching my face", maybe i could train myself to act like that, but not in a day | 00:40 |
RougeRR | LjL, they say thats actually the biggest beneift of face masks lol | 00:41 |
LjL | yeah | 00:41 |
RougeRR | yeah i dont think face masks are worth having | 00:41 |
LjL | except face masks are nowhere to be found, except the black market | 00:41 |
RougeRR | id rather not buy them up | 00:41 |
RougeRR | save them for healthcare pros | 00:41 |
RougeRR | its not airboune | 00:41 |
LjL | we had three, i tried one the other day, was an ugh experience | 00:41 |
contingo | my aunt did quite a lot of research into Alderney cows, a breed that was dispersed during WWII, apparently they had even higher fat content milk than Jersey | 00:41 |
LjL | we don't know it's not airborne tbh | 00:42 |
RougeRR | contingo, mmm dat fat | 00:42 |
RougeRR | LjL, pretty sure | 00:42 |
LjL | i believe that's one thing that's sometimes being said without really any evidence it's true | 00:42 |
RougeRR | look at the size | 00:42 |
contingo | must've been amazing | 00:42 |
RougeRR | of the molecules | 00:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:34 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Dow Jones suffers biggest-ever points fall, Australian market plummets: US share index tumbles 1,190 points, the Netherlands confirms its first case and 50 Britons are allowed to leave Tenerife hotel. Follow the latest news [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/r0BZhN | 00:42 |
RougeRR | its going to stay on surfaces for few hours tops | 00:42 |
LjL | to be fair contingo asked me about the size of the virus about ten times | 00:42 |
LjL | and i didn't look it up still | 00:42 |
contingo | I didn't | 00:42 |
LjL | okay, once | 00:42 |
LjL | we exaggerate here | 00:42 |
LjL | we actually have 65 sick, not 650 | 00:42 |
RougeRR | whats the crack in in italy then | 00:43 |
RougeRR | worse than they say? | 00:43 |
LjL | the "crack in"? | 00:43 |
RougeRR | we will know true fatality rates when it gets outside of china a bit more. but also given mildest cases often wont report. those wont count to stats | 00:43 |
RougeRR | LjL, the story | 00:43 |
LjL | are you asking what the situation's like or what's the crack like | 00:43 |
RougeRR | sorry brittish idiom | 00:43 |
RougeRR | yeah | 00:44 |
RougeRR | whats the sit | 00:44 |
contingo | I just mentioned it to raise the point, even if you know the size of the individual virions, you still have to find out the agglomeration properties and other factors to model how it disperses | 00:44 |
LjL | well i'm not in a quarantined area, that must not be fun | 00:44 |
RougeRR | LjL, mmm i imagine | 00:44 |
LjL | but in milan, it's... we're tense, and supermarkets have to keep restocking fast | 00:44 |
RougeRR | are people freaking out or? | 00:44 |
LjL | i'm freaking out, not sure i count as people | 00:44 |
RougeRR | panic buying? | 00:44 |
LjL | yes | 00:44 |
RougeRR | hmmm | 00:44 |
RougeRR | lol okay yeah im defo stocking up | 00:44 |
LjL | but then you go outside, and everything seems fairly normal, people smiling in the park | 00:44 |
RougeRR | we have a 2-3 days supply chain | 00:44 |
LjL | but those are kind of self-selecting | 00:45 |
LjL | you don't see the ones who are not smiling and not in the park | 00:45 |
RougeRR | and storms will fuck us and have been last 4 weeks | 00:45 |
LjL | i took the metro, it wasn't empty as flaunted, but it was decidedly less crowded than usual | 00:45 |
LjL | (that's when i wore the mask) | 00:45 |
RougeRR | yeah | 00:45 |
RougeRR | metro worst place to be | 00:45 |
LjL | of the few people that remained, i'd say 25% had a mask, 25% covered their mouths/noses with a scarf, and the remaining 50% didn't seem to care | 00:45 |
LjL | but that's a 50% of a much smaller number than normal metro takers, so... | 00:46 |
RougeRR | covering your mouth is for others tbh more so | 00:46 |
RougeRR | and masks | 00:46 |
contingo | the coronavirus patient who reported to the hospital walking distance from me got an Uber there, so | 00:46 |
LjL | RougeRR, i was encouraged to take the metro when i heard from other people that it was practically empty on monday. everyone else who took it on tuesday must have thought the same. | 00:46 |
RougeRR | mmm | 00:46 |
RougeRR | wahh | 00:46 |
RougeRR | im not smoking weed any more. cant get it here. or id stock up on that | 00:46 |
contingo | and then I think PHE said the driver was not a contact of interest, the ride was too short | 00:46 |
LjL | we're a bit of a walking joke sometimes | 00:46 |
RougeRR | but im guna stock up on booze | 00:46 |
RougeRR | this island has one of the highest alcohol consumption rates in europe | 00:47 |
RougeRR | these fuckers would drink the place dry in a week | 00:47 |
RougeRR | i work 8 hours a week in a bar, work software normally | 00:47 |
contingo | I have quite interesting stocks of things because I have unusual amounts of storage space for a little zone 2 flat | 00:48 |
RougeRR | but yeah, we could easily isolate. both parents dont work. i can just quit on spot with no issues. and we have loads of fields next tous | 00:48 |
RougeRR | to walk and get outside in | 00:48 |
RougeRR | we have a boat to if shit really hit the fan | 00:48 |
RougeRR | and a camper | 00:48 |
RougeRR | but weather aint that bad | 00:48 |
RougeRR | weather is bad* | 00:49 |
RougeRR | contingo, mmm i can imagine | 00:49 |
tinwhiskers | Here's a time-series graph for by country I put together for anyone interested: http://offloop.net/covid19/ | 00:49 |
RougeRR | thats the key tbh. in china they are not running out of food. its "luxuries" | 00:49 |
contingo | do you have munitions XD | 00:49 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, that's good thanks | 00:50 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, nice | 00:50 |
LjL | i'll add it to the topic list | 00:50 |
RougeRR | anything i can do. im a backend dev | 00:50 |
RougeRR | been thinking of a corona project | 00:50 |
tinwhiskers | I just couldn't find anything that did this on a per-country basis, so thought I'd do something. The other stuff I want is already available on other web sites | 00:50 |
LjL | i mean, that's bad really, for me, but good for... knowing | 00:50 |
contingo | nice tinwhiskers | 00:51 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah i also hadn't found anything that would let me compare countries sensibly without squeezing them all to the bottom with china roaring up | 00:51 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, what do you use for graphing? | 00:51 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, i had thought of setting up some kind of self-reported thing | 00:51 |
RougeRR | but be very difficult | 00:51 |
tinwhiskers | This is using flot. It has a few issues | 00:51 |
contingo | LjL did you delve any more into the ACE2 receptor blockers availability in Italy | 00:52 |
RougeRR | the UK is a bit fucked | 00:52 |
RougeRR | tories cut healthcare to the bone | 00:52 |
RougeRR | NHS is under winter strain | 00:52 |
tinwhiskers | France and Germany look like they've lost a grip now | 00:52 |
RougeRR | not heard anything on france? | 00:52 |
LjL | contingo, eh not really, it's all prescription for sure, so what can i do, you know i'm not leaning towards visiting the darker sides of the web for that | 00:52 |
RougeRR | again, its the secondary effects | 00:52 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, they'll blame it all on us ;( | 00:52 |
tinwhiskers | esp. if you include the latest data with the checkbox below the graph | 00:52 |
contingo | my fam is enquiring in the far east | 00:53 |
RougeRR | we all have relatives and some us might have health issues | 00:53 |
tinwhiskers | Kuwait is screwed too | 00:53 |
RougeRR | but the big issues is how this affects society and economy and supply chain | 00:53 |
tinwhiskers | but then... it's kuwait, so... | 00:53 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, any clue where to programmatively get the "interim" data? because the bot also suffers from very late updates | 00:53 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, france seems ok so far | 00:53 |
RougeRR | my parents are meant to go over there in 2weeks see my aunt n uncle | 00:53 |
tinwhiskers | I'm scraping it but didn't mention the source because of copyright worries :-/ | 00:53 |
RougeRR | they will decide then | 00:53 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, ah :( | 00:54 |
RougeRR | they are going by ferry/campervan | 00:54 |
RougeRR | so as it goes. they are better than most | 00:54 |
RougeRR | my brother is up in french alps | 00:54 |
RougeRR | lol | 00:54 |
RougeRR | other cousins in cardiff n scotland | 00:54 |
RougeRR | we spread out | 00:54 |
tinwhiskers | RougeRR: according to the latest data France is not looking ok to my eye | 00:54 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, you'd figure this stuff would all be made freely available in such a messy situation... and also, that countries wouldn't all rely on JHU for their data (maybe they don't, but they sure do at our civil protection HQ unless that's all theater) | 00:54 |
RougeRR | i was in bristol | 00:54 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, aye. but what makes you say so | 00:54 |
RougeRR | im not disagreeing | 00:55 |
tinwhiskers | I mean the total is not high but the rate is alarming | 00:55 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, to be fair though, any increase from flatline can look like the start of a progression | 00:55 |
RougeRR | i just havnt seen much, i should know. | 00:55 |
LjL | and then just be... a couple more cases | 00:55 |
RougeRR | im only 14 miles from france, i can see it from my window lol! | 00:55 |
LjL | we'll see tomorrow i guess | 00:55 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 00:55 |
RougeRR | https://www.thelocal.fr/20200227/latest-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-in-france-including-man-recently-returned-from-italy | 00:55 |
RougeRR | yeah i see what you mean | 00:56 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, im based on a small island | 00:56 |
tinwhiskers | me too! | 00:56 |
RougeRR | ah cool | 00:56 |
RougeRR | where bouts if you dont mind me asking | 00:56 |
tinwhiskers | my island has a population of 6 | 00:56 |
tinwhiskers | it's in Tonga | 00:56 |
RougeRR | lol tinwhiskers | 00:57 |
RougeRR | 6? | 00:57 |
RougeRR | ya pretty safe | 00:57 |
RougeRR | mines 100k | 00:57 |
RougeRR | 9miles x 5miles | 00:57 |
tinwhiskers | well, it's not very big :-/ | 00:57 |
LjL | he's lying, but it's not his fault, it's the fever | 00:57 |
tinwhiskers | 25 acres in total | 00:57 |
RougeRR | 6... | 00:57 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, is there anyone doing graphing | 00:57 |
RougeRR | of reports by area | 00:57 |
tinwhiskers | that link I posted does the regions as well | 00:58 |
RougeRR | ah ty | 00:58 |
tinwhiskers | oh, area as in km^2? | 00:58 |
RougeRR | lol i also asked my cousin if he can receive post | 00:58 |
RougeRR | hes in that tenerife hotel if you didnt see | 00:59 |
RougeRR | i feel bad for him, but he will be fine | 00:59 |
tinwhiskers | No, I didn't | 00:59 |
RougeRR | im thinking of sending him a care package of food, books etc...but also an "enjoy your holiday!" card and a pandemic board game | 00:59 |
tinwhiskers | Really if you're under 45 you're very unlikely to die. The high death rate is biased due to old people being extremely susceptible | 01:00 |
RougeRR | yeah | 01:00 |
RougeRR | hes very fit and 39 | 01:00 |
RougeRR | he said its okay there | 01:00 |
RougeRR | but the containment is a joke | 01:00 |
RougeRR | everyone mingles with each other, nothing is logical because they all mingle yet some get released based on date arrived | 01:00 |
tinwhiskers | the containment is just about impossible with that incubation period | 01:00 |
RougeRR | staff can go/come if they have masks | 01:01 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, agreed | 01:01 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 01:01 |
contingo | is he using the pool? | 01:01 |
RougeRR | im just saying its inconsistant | 01:01 |
RougeRR | nah | 01:01 |
tinwhiskers | ah, right | 01:01 |
RougeRR | hes staying clear where he can | 01:01 |
RougeRR | like if any of them test positive they will extend quarantine | 01:01 |
RougeRR | and he might get quarantined again in uk | 01:01 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, the containment should have a goal of slowing down to the extent of allowing the healthcare system and other core things to operate | 01:01 |
LjL | it's obvious it can't be "stopped" | 01:02 |
RougeRR | yes | 01:02 |
tinwhiskers | right. fair | 01:02 |
RougeRR | if we can stagger the growth | 01:02 |
RougeRR | and get to april/may | 01:02 |
LjL | but now Italy seems to be going the dangerous route of appeasing the public's "meh, we aren't containing this anyway, may as well relax the quarantine" | 01:02 |
RougeRR | the strain from other seasonal illness will be less | 01:02 |
tinwhiskers | well, it's summer here for me, so may it not something to look forward to for those of us in the southern hemisphere | 01:02 |
RougeRR | and it stands more chance of dying off a bit | 01:02 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, mmm | 01:03 |
RougeRR | but your winter | 01:03 |
RougeRR | is as cold as our summer often | 01:03 |
RougeRR | lol | 01:03 |
RougeRR | surely australia should be a good metric to see how it copes in warmer weather? | 01:03 |
wwinfo[m] | <tinwhiskers "the containment is just about im"> put everyone into 1-person nice room, with bathroom, and sterilized food delivered at the start lasting 45 days, ez | 01:04 |
contingo | the whole of the UK only has 15 beds currently available for artificial lung treatment, apparently | 01:04 |
LjL | RougeRR, that thing too about dying off a bit... MERS stays the same or gets kinda worse, so isn't it a bit just wishful thinking? the flu gets better, but this isnät the flu | 01:04 |
LjL | contingo, you really want to make me buy oxygen | 01:04 |
RougeRR | wwinfo[m], ? | 01:04 |
RougeRR | LjL, potentially | 01:04 |
RougeRR | but we wont have other winter strain to compete with | 01:04 |
contingo | that would be your last bet if you had end stage pneumonia with acute respiratory failure that an O2 supply to your lungs couldn't address | 01:04 |
RougeRR | and people are less likely to be in close proximity inside | 01:04 |
RougeRR | contingo, yeah im a bit worried for my dad as he is on immunosupressants for colitus | 01:05 |
LjL | RougeRR, fair about other winter bugs | 01:05 |
RougeRR | we will isolate if it hits the island | 01:05 |
RougeRR | thats the plan for nwo | 01:05 |
RougeRR | now | 01:05 |
LjL | contingo, yes, not much of a bet i guess, since i doubt lung transplants would be forecoming...? | 01:05 |
LjL | forthcoming | 01:05 |
RougeRR | no chance | 01:06 |
LjL | maybe i should prep | 01:06 |
tinwhiskers | Does anyone know someone who has had the virus yet? | 01:06 |
RougeRR | other than my cousin possibly | 01:06 |
RougeRR | no | 01:06 |
LjL | i don't | 01:06 |
RougeRR | im currently chugging red wine to get my immune system up (/s) | 01:06 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 01:06 |
wwinfo[m] | "Italy has now relaxed its testing criteria: contacts linked to confirmed cases or recent travelers to outbreak areas will not be tested anymore, unless they show symptoms. [source] See: comparison with other countries. " | 01:07 |
LjL | i've done an experiment to see if limoncello is a viable treatment | 01:07 |
wwinfo[m] | are they insane? | 01:07 |
LjL | wwinfo[m], it may actually be worse than that | 01:07 |
RougeRR | LjL, i think we have to just keep going through different alcohol | 01:07 |
RougeRR | if we dont try | 01:07 |
RougeRR | we dont know | 01:07 |
LjL | wwinfo[m], but to be fair, THAT relaxation is being mandated by the european center for disease blah blah | 01:08 |
wwinfo[m] | geat, maybe all incompetent nations will half-die. Oh Darwin. | 01:08 |
RougeRR | wwinfo[m], they probably cant test | 01:08 |
LjL | the rest, if they really do it... is not | 01:08 |
LjL | wwinfo[m], will you kindly shut the fuck up with that sort of cynicism? | 01:08 |
LjL | if you want me to die, do it in your own channel | 01:08 |
LjL | okay? | 01:08 |
contingo | LjL it's a treatment while your lungs don't work at all, one can recover to breathe independently from that stage, albeit with a high chance of quite fucked lungs | 01:08 |
RougeRR | im interested in hpow the stats say travel bans wont help | 01:08 |
tinwhiskers | This may well help the superannuation budgets for many countries since quite a few old people will probably die :-/ | 01:08 |
wwinfo[m] | if I would be the king, I would quarantine everyone suspected of being in contact with suspected cases, plus everyone ingoing to country. 40 days, 1-person room with bathroom, food supply included | 01:08 |
tinwhiskers | (pension, that is) | 01:08 |
RougeRR | but i dont understand how restricting non essential travel wont | 01:08 |
RougeRR | especially for the UK | 01:09 |
RougeRR | or for me in jersey | 01:09 |
LjL | contingo, The Dow Jones index of leading US shares has suffered its biggest points fall in history amid the coronavirus crisis, closing down 1,190.95 in New York. | 01:09 |
tinwhiskers | excellent | 01:10 |
contingo | yes | 01:10 |
contingo | I'm gonna ask my mate also in Jersey what's afoot round his | 01:10 |
tinwhiskers | I was just thinking of getting into some stocks | 01:10 |
RougeRR | contingo, nothing yet | 01:10 |
RougeRR | lol | 01:10 |
RougeRR | people think its overblown | 01:10 |
RougeRR | or they over react | 01:10 |
RougeRR | not much middle ground | 01:10 |
contingo | my commodities index fund thing still isn't doing spectacularly | 01:10 |
tinwhiskers | there's a storm a-comin' | 01:10 |
RougeRR | idk if i should quit my pub job | 01:10 |
RougeRR | i dont need it | 01:10 |
RougeRR | i only do 8 hours a week | 01:11 |
RougeRR | im not worried about myself, just infecting my dad | 01:11 |
RougeRR | because other than that, its easy to limit contact | 01:11 |
RougeRR | i wonder if b&q will have mashs here | 01:11 |
RougeRR | masks | 01:11 |
RougeRR | on the bright side, the tory party are all old as fuck | 01:12 |
tinwhiskers | lol | 01:12 |
contingo | source a robot hand and you can serve drinks remotely | 01:12 |
RougeRR | and boris is pretty overweight. got my fingers crossed | 01:12 |
wwinfo[m] | "Israel’s Ministry of Health is mandating a 14-day quarantine for all travelers who have visited Italy in the past 14 days. " | 01:12 |
RougeRR | contingo, ill likely get some goves n make use of alcohol soap | 01:12 |
wwinfo[m] | as usuall, Jews are the only group that takes care about themselves and doesn't give a flying F. what everyone else think about it | 01:12 |
RougeRR | wwinfo[m], its the economy issue mate | 01:13 |
RougeRR | if you isolate them all, then ALL the parents will have too | 01:13 |
LjL | also i should do that on Matrix i guess | 01:13 |
RougeRR | and then you begin crippling the economy | 01:13 |
RougeRR | in the UK SSP is £95 a week | 01:13 |
RougeRR | its a balancing act | 01:14 |
LjL | good thing Riot.im doesn't start as usual | 01:14 |
RougeRR | yeh | 01:14 |
RougeRR | but yeah a non-essential travel ban | 01:14 |
RougeRR | i dont understand why that wouldnt help | 01:14 |
RougeRR | they say it would cause illegal access | 01:14 |
contingo | that's one thing I'm annoyed at running out of I can't easily restock, my pure ethanol | 01:14 |
RougeRR | and the experts say it doesnt work | 01:14 |
tinwhiskers | In any decent sized country this is not going to be over quickly. isolation may not be practical and in fact may just prolong things. | 01:14 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, thats what they say | 01:15 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but prolonging thing is good if less of the population is sick at the same time | 01:15 |
RougeRR | ^ | 01:15 |
RougeRR | this is the worst time for it to hit europe | 01:15 |
tinwhiskers | And it seems people can be infected a second time, so it may come through in waves. | 01:15 |
RougeRR | hold off 2 more months | 01:15 |
RougeRR | i am curius if they would ever release a vaccine on a condensed less tested time scale | 01:15 |
tinwhiskers | that will be interesting to see for sure. | 01:16 |
RougeRR | yeah, i think it depends on the vaccine type | 01:16 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, there is no hard evidence of second infections i believe | 01:16 |
LjL | it appears it *may* be possible, or, people just both test positive and then negative and then positive | 01:16 |
LjL | which isn't a stretch given this test has given inconsistent results before | 01:16 |
tinwhiskers | maybe | 01:16 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, vaccine for flu is like 1 type is weakened virus (cant be taken by immunosupressed), other is antibodies or some shit | 01:17 |
RougeRR | the first is oral, 2nd is injection | 01:17 |
RougeRR | iirc | 01:17 |
RougeRR | i might be wrong | 01:17 |
tinwhiskers | I was reading something about a protective mechanism in the lungs that doesn't last long | 01:17 |
RougeRR | LjL, or they get release early yeah | 01:17 |
LjL | i mean, it's possible they get infected twice | 01:17 |
RougeRR | i read about RUMOURs on infertility in men (mild) | 01:17 |
LjL | but i see way too much jumping at conclusions in this whole matter | 01:17 |
RougeRR | glad idgaf, i had a vasectomy at 21 | 01:17 |
LjL | when the perhaps sad reality is that the answer to most questions is "we don't know yet" | 01:18 |
RougeRR | LjL, yep | 01:18 |
tinwhiskers | yes, too early to say. *may* is still interesting though. | 01:18 |
RougeRR | as i said | 01:18 |
RougeRR | if its in your area: stock up on basic supplies, isolate vulnerable, avoid non-essential gatherings and travel | 01:18 |
LjL | yes, it is, as long as it's stated as such, and i just seem to see the "mays" turning into "will" quickly at this game of chinese whispers | 01:18 |
RougeRR | if you can work from home do | 01:18 |
RougeRR | if not and you arnt exposing the at risk | 01:19 |
RougeRR | keep working | 01:19 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: yes, fair | 01:19 |
RougeRR | i feel that what ive said is most sensible | 01:19 |
RougeRR | on the bright side, at least china took the brunt | 01:19 |
RougeRR | sort of.... | 01:19 |
LjL | RougeRR, i was sighing for myself | 01:19 |
tinwhiskers | erm, well it's a bit early to say that too | 01:19 |
RougeRR | all of our supply chains are reliant on them | 01:19 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, true | 01:20 |
contingo | this is potentially just the beginning, that's why you're prepping | 01:20 |
contingo | and quitting the pub | 01:20 |
tinwhiskers | Another two weeks and we'll know a LOT more | 01:20 |
RougeRR | i think ill probably quit the pub work if we get confirmed cases on island | 01:20 |
RougeRR | we are isolated here somewhat | 01:20 |
RougeRR | im still considering it | 01:21 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, that would be wise. A pub would nt be a good place to be | 01:21 |
RougeRR | ill be upping my hygene measure | 01:21 |
RougeRR | its a quiet village pub | 01:21 |
tinwhiskers | I'm sure the pub would close if you get cases anyway, wouldn't it? | 01:21 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, ehhhh | 01:21 |
RougeRR | youd think so | 01:21 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 01:21 |
RougeRR | but people here are stubborn | 01:21 |
contingo | yeah there's no definitive evidence for reinfection yet, at best though there's an extended period of post-symptom viral shedding / infectivity that isn't caught by some clearance tests, in some hopefully small fraction of cases | 01:21 |
RougeRR | government is dumb | 01:21 |
RougeRR | we have independant government | 01:21 |
RougeRR | not under direct UK juristiction | 01:22 |
RougeRR | they couldn't organize a fucking piss up in a brewery | 01:22 |
LjL | contingo, encouraging | 01:22 |
contingo | (extended to an unusual and concerning duration) | 01:22 |
LjL | even more encouraging | 01:22 |
RougeRR | as i said. if you are healthy. you will likely be okay | 01:22 |
contingo | I'm just being transparent | 01:22 |
RougeRR | its sick or elderly relatives | 01:22 |
LjL | fair | 01:22 |
LjL | yes, i know. | 01:22 |
RougeRR | or at risk from other meds | 01:22 |
LjL | quite | 01:23 |
RougeRR | im on medication, i cant get it in bulk | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | Right now I has a minor case of pneumonia and have been on antibiotics for a couple of days. | 01:23 |
RougeRR | but i wont die if i dont get it | 01:23 |
RougeRR | ill just feel a bit shit and have withdrawals | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | hopefully I'll be over that before covid arrives here (unless it already has) | 01:23 |
LjL | RougeRR, not you will freak out and have panic attacks and end up in an ER where you'll catch the virus worse? | 01:24 |
RougeRR | LjL, nah | 01:24 |
LjL | go you then | 01:24 |
RougeRR | im on vyanese (lisdexampfetamine) | 01:24 |
tinwhiskers | we did have lunch with a person who just returned from Italy a few days before I got ill, but I've not heard of anyone else getting ill | 01:24 |
RougeRR | ill get mild to moderate withdrawals for a few weeks n be cranky | 01:24 |
LjL | those are just random letters | 01:24 |
RougeRR | LjL, its like slow-release adderall | 01:24 |
LjL | oh | 01:24 |
RougeRR | ive been on anti-depressant before | 01:24 |
LjL | wait can you explain that again? | 01:24 |
LjL | i missed the first part | 01:24 |
RougeRR | and gone cold turky off them | 01:24 |
RougeRR | LjL, i cant get them in bulk | 01:25 |
contingo | what if catching it now would provide you with immunity from a much more lethal mutated strain next winter? (not a question to be answered, just my what ifs leaking out) | 01:25 |
RougeRR | one month at a time shipped from uk | 01:25 |
LjL | no i know | 01:25 |
LjL | i was being silly | 01:25 |
RougeRR | haha | 01:25 |
RougeRR | sorry | 01:25 |
RougeRR | but yeah ill just be cranky | 01:25 |
RougeRR | my dad is on essential meds | 01:25 |
RougeRR | but he can get longer term supplies | 01:25 |
tinwhiskers | contingo: yeah, I've wondered that. There's also a case for getting it early before hospital services become overloaded. | 01:25 |
RougeRR | its unlikely to mutate they think | 01:25 |
RougeRR | *unlikely* | 01:26 |
RougeRR | and if it does | 01:26 |
LjL | contingo, but then there is also the "what if" the second time is worse. yeah i know, it's a rumor and it's likely baseless, but so was reinfection until recently... | 01:26 |
tinwhiskers | it's unlike to mutate *as fast as the common cold* | 01:26 |
contingo | tinwhiskers yeah, LjL and I have mulled that one over a fair bit | 01:26 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, or flyu | 01:26 |
RougeRR | flu | 01:26 |
tinwhiskers | yeah | 01:26 |
RougeRR | wana know th real worry LjL | 01:26 |
RougeRR | even if it doesnt mutate (assume it wont) | 01:26 |
RougeRR | the vaccine timeline is over a year | 01:26 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, contingo, right but this time you pretty much said "it's possible it's not possible to be reinfected, but let's be real, it's happening" | 01:26 |
RougeRR | we will have another year of this if it becomes endemic | 01:27 |
RougeRR | another winter | 01:27 |
LjL | RougeRR, well hopefully then it *does* mutate, to a milder variant... | 01:27 |
RougeRR | aye | 01:27 |
RougeRR | LjL, i mean | 01:27 |
RougeRR | lol its kind of funky | 01:27 |
RougeRR | if it got MUCH worse | 01:27 |
RougeRR | that would kinda be better | 01:27 |
LjL | but, for sure, i don't think i can live with more than a year of... this | 01:27 |
RougeRR | it would die out | 01:27 |
RougeRR | right? | 01:27 |
RougeRR | b | 01:27 |
LjL | RougeRR, that's why it won't happen | 01:28 |
RougeRR | LjL, my advice is to avoid media a bit | 01:28 |
LjL | there's already a strain that's not that stupid! | 01:28 |
LjL | so that one will live on | 01:28 |
RougeRR | its not good for your mental health | 01:28 |
RougeRR | limit it to once a day | 01:28 |
RougeRR | nothing will change that quick | 01:28 |
RougeRR | do what you can | 01:28 |
RougeRR | prep in a reasonabkle way | 01:28 |
LjL | RougeRR, my parents are at risk, we are not following the very advice you just repeatedly gave, i am conscious that puts them at even more risk. another close relative is on immunosuppressant. i don't want to explain my situation in the exact detail, and why we're not following advice, but... yeah | 01:29 |
contingo | it already has mutated in terms of there being de novo genetic diversity amongst samples since the initial transmission event (the ultimate patient zero), but the mutations aren't correlated with any new traits in terms of the epidemiology | 01:29 |
contingo | so far as we know at this point | 01:29 |
RougeRR | LjL, i understand that | 01:29 |
RougeRR | yeah | 01:29 |
RougeRR | its stressful | 01:29 |
RougeRR | dont take my word as bible though | 01:29 |
RougeRR | i might be overreacting | 01:29 |
LjL | RougeRR, you just said things i already thought were necessary | 01:29 |
RougeRR | im still making my mind up | 01:29 |
RougeRR | i know | 01:29 |
LjL | but that i can't convince my parents of, without making a stressful situation worse | 01:29 |
tinwhiskers | Although I'm no conspiracy nutter, I think the data we're seeing come from China is a load of bullshit. I don't think they have a handle on it like their data shows. | 01:29 |
RougeRR | im just saying, im just an anxious man on the internet | 01:29 |
contingo | is there a physical withdrawal syndrome with vyanese? | 01:29 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, im unsure either way | 01:30 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, why not? when they were full-on exponential, they showed it | 01:30 |
RougeRR | i dont think they have a handle on it | 01:30 |
LjL | why lie now | 01:30 |
RougeRR | but i also think there could be lots of infected with minimal symptoms | 01:30 |
LjL | RougeRR, and that's a double edged sword | 01:30 |
RougeRR | which could mean a lower death rate | 01:30 |
RougeRR | ofc | 01:30 |
LjL | but higher infection rate | 01:30 |
tinwhiskers | I'm not sure, but maybe because they saw the harm that was happening and decided a little less truth might be beneficial | 01:30 |
RougeRR | tinwhiskers, i agree | 01:30 |
tinwhiskers | *economic harm | 01:30 |
RougeRR | impossible to tell though | 01:30 |
RougeRR | as i said | 01:30 |
RougeRR | for all in this channel | 01:30 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, sounds like italy rn | 01:31 |
RougeRR | mental health is important, do what you can. but dont panic | 01:31 |
tinwhiskers | well, if you look at the regional time-series data for china it looks far too perfect to me. | 01:31 |
RougeRR | go to work if you can | 01:31 |
contingo | wider scale community testing in korea and singapore tend not to support the view there's a large population of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers | 01:31 |
contingo | but that's just there | 01:31 |
RougeRR | tinwhisk | 01:31 |
tinwhiskers | (not including hubei of course) | 01:31 |
contingo | other countries (USA) have done a fraction of the testing | 01:31 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:17 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US stocks suffer biggest one-day fall, Australian market dives: Ireland and Netherlands report first cases as US officials monitor thousands getting off domestic flights for symptoms. Follow live news — from The Guardian at 00:17: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 01:31 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, well i've got to give you that you've probably looked at it most than more people since most people didn't make that site | 01:31 |
RougeRR | tbf one advantage of a totalitarianesq state is control of population | 01:31 |
LjL | Brainstorm, stop saying that, i got it the... second time | 01:31 |
LjL | contingo, what about the testing in italy? | 01:32 |
LjL | we're allegedly testing a lot | 01:32 |
RougeRR | can we all hope that some good comes of this | 01:32 |
RougeRR | and trump dies | 01:32 |
RougeRR | slowly | 01:32 |
LjL | for now, anyway, maybe that'll all change tomorrow | 01:32 |
RougeRR | from ncov | 01:32 |
RougeRR | and we offer him ebola vaccine | 01:32 |
contingo | ncovfefe | 01:32 |
RougeRR | LOL | 01:33 |
LjL | RougeRR, well, an ebola drug kinda works... | 01:33 |
RougeRR | really lol | 01:33 |
LjL | not the vaccine, though | 01:33 |
LjL | i don't think anyway, let me check again | 01:33 |
RougeRR | i see this | 01:34 |
RougeRR | https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/26/21154220/coronavirus-experimental-treatment-remdesivir-trials-us-china-ebola | 01:34 |
LjL | RougeRR, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Management second paragraph for the ebola, then i'm linking to the whole thing because it mentions other potentially effective things | 01:35 |
RougeRR | seems promising | 01:35 |
RougeRR | i see it | 01:35 |
LjL | well yeah | 01:35 |
LjL | i think some of those things have been used in italy already, so if any of us gets it... maybe we'll have a chance at useful treatment | 01:36 |
LjL | but if it actually does work very well (that, or the HIV ones), how soon before nobody has any left? | 01:36 |
RougeRR | holy fuck | 01:37 |
RougeRR | The incubation period ranges from 1 to 14 days with an estimated median incubation period of 5 to 6 days according to the World Health Organization.[32][33] A study found rare cases where the incubation period was as long as 27 days.[34][35] | 01:37 |
RougeRR | median 6 days | 01:37 |
RougeRR | max 27! | 01:37 |
LjL | RougeRR, people are mad enough about the 14 days, there have been rumors about extending it to 21 days in italy (they've died down, i'm afraid there's a bit of a u-turn on everything from the government now :\) but if you tell people they have to stay in quarantine for longer than a months you'll find them all in tenerife | 01:38 |
RougeRR | LjL, its not that they are mad | 01:38 |
LjL | contingo, you see me doing that S thing? | 01:38 |
RougeRR | its that they cannot afford it | 01:38 |
RougeRR | they wont be paid | 01:38 |
RougeRR | rent will be due | 01:38 |
RougeRR | they have bills to pay | 01:38 |
RougeRR | sick pay wont be available to many, and even those who can often wont be eligbe long term quarantine | 01:39 |
LjL | RougeRR, yes, okay, i'm not pointing fingers at anyone anyway. i live in an individualistic society, i am an individualism, i'll flee to your island if can and i think that saves me, tbqh | 01:39 |
RougeRR | i know | 01:39 |
RougeRR | its okay | 01:39 |
LjL | > i am an individualism | 01:39 |
LjL | lol | 01:39 |
RougeRR | im just saying this is partly why | 01:39 |
RougeRR | i saw coronvirus warnings in the tax office today suprisingly | 01:40 |
RougeRR | idk what it will be like somewhere like here | 01:40 |
LjL | we have tv things that tell you to wash your hands, that's about it | 01:40 |
RougeRR | small island, they could quarantine whole place | 01:40 |
RougeRR | shut down airport and ships | 01:40 |
RougeRR | idk if they would | 01:40 |
LjL | you should do that now | 01:40 |
RougeRR | " we are prepared " | 01:41 |
LjL | as cases in italy started soaring, at first the government assured everyone that we were NOT closing the borders, because some wanted to | 01:41 |
RougeRR | LjL, yeah its true that it doesnt work long term | 01:41 |
LjL | and i was like | 01:41 |
LjL | wut | 01:41 |
RougeRR | and in places with land borders | 01:41 |
RougeRR | but small island like this with limit resources | 01:41 |
RougeRR | limiting non-essential travel would work | 01:41 |
RougeRR | just keep the goods coming in | 01:41 |
LjL | RougeRR, that's what i'm saying, do it yourselves, now, before you have cases | 01:42 |
LjL | not that you are the government | 01:42 |
RougeRR | yeah i know | 01:42 |
LjL | but you are a bigger part of your government than i am of mine, numerically speaking :P | 01:42 |
RougeRR | and yeah alas we dont have acoice | 01:42 |
RougeRR | governement here is corrupt and useless | 01:42 |
RougeRR | i do agree in europe and uk stopping travel wont work and its already here internally | 01:42 |
RougeRR | but in jersey, we could | 01:43 |
LjL | just the funny thing is that people were discussing whether *we* should close the borders. obviously if anything, the other countries would be | 01:43 |
RougeRR | we have a big eledely population too | 01:43 |
LjL | i guess the first day or two, people (including politicians) weren't quite... getting it | 01:43 |
RougeRR | LjL, its not worth doing in europe | 01:43 |
RougeRR | ending schengen would mean that people just take illegal ways round borders anyway | 01:44 |
LjL | either way, if we're the ones with a huge cluster of cases, we should be discussing other things, not whether to close borders | 01:44 |
RougeRR | its better to treat mainland europe as one country | 01:44 |
RougeRR | and contain per town/coty | 01:44 |
RougeRR | UK could do it | 01:44 |
RougeRR | potentially | 01:44 |
LjL | RougeRR, treating the EU as one country, what a novel concept, someone should have thought about that | 01:44 |
LjL | a novel concept | 01:44 |
LjL | an nCon... | 01:44 |
LjL | and also half an acyclovir because i can feeeeel the stress | 01:45 |
RougeRR | keke | 01:46 |
RougeRR | i should sleep | 01:46 |
RougeRR | i should also order another few months minoxodil | 01:47 |
contingo | my Jersey buddy isn't replying on whatsapp | 01:47 |
RougeRR | nothing worse than going bald AND ill | 01:47 |
RougeRR | got finasteride for 3 months | 01:47 |
contingo | so maybe that end of town is fallen already | 01:47 |
LjL | dang it | 01:47 |
contingo | lol | 01:47 |
RougeRR | contingo, which jersey | 01:47 |
RougeRR | mine lol | 01:48 |
contingo | RougeRR that stuff really worked for me | 01:48 |
RougeRR | contingo, finasteride works to stop loss generally | 01:48 |
RougeRR | minox is hit n miss | 01:48 |
contingo | yours yes | 01:48 |
RougeRR | ahh we dont even have towns really | 01:48 |
RougeRR | its also 1am here | 01:48 |
RougeRR | there is one large town | 01:48 |
RougeRR | and smaller villages | 01:48 |
RougeRR | whole place is 9x5miles | 01:48 |
contingo | I've just used minox, only had minor thinning but it's reversed. Read up on finasteride and felt wary | 01:48 |
contingo | yes, I know XD | 01:49 |
contingo | so you've not been to Alderney? | 01:49 |
LjL | i read up, felt wary, read up more, wanted to try a weird combination of things, read up more, never touched any of it | 01:49 |
RougeRR | yeah fin can have side effects | 01:49 |
RougeRR | but its rare | 01:49 |
RougeRR | fin will stop hair loss though | 01:49 |
RougeRR | minox regrows but rairly stops | 01:49 |
RougeRR | contingo, never no. buy dad has sailed there. my mum flew once | 01:49 |
RougeRR | been to all the other islands by plane or boat | 01:50 |
RougeRR | terrible weather though | 01:50 |
contingo | my aunt's place has a ruined German fortress offshore, accessible at some low tides, would make a really uncomfortable hideaway I guess | 01:50 |
RougeRR | yeah we have lots of those | 01:50 |
RougeRR | we have a big house here mind | 01:51 |
RougeRR | and fields next to us | 01:51 |
RougeRR | if one of us 3 got ill and somehow others didnt | 01:51 |
RougeRR | we could isolate with 1 floor each lol! | 01:51 |
contingo | are the fields paddocks? or a crop | 01:51 |
RougeRR | nothing in them currently | 01:51 |
RougeRR | sometimes cows, sometimes potatoe crops | 01:51 |
RougeRR | we have a small estate opposite us now | 01:51 |
RougeRR | and a few houses down the road | 01:52 |
contingo | my family place... pile... is up in northamptonshire | 01:52 |
contingo | I really don't want to retreat to there | 01:52 |
RougeRR | fucking estate, this place was so quiet. they fucking put 30 houses in opposite us | 01:52 |
RougeRR | i hate real estate developers | 01:52 |
RougeRR | up north | 01:52 |
RougeRR | i dont blame ya! | 01:52 |
RougeRR | you said you are in london though? | 01:53 |
contingo | oh same with ours, we had an unbroken view of field and spinneys to the horizon | 01:53 |
contingo | but then they put an entire new build village right in the middle of the view | 01:53 |
RougeRR | yeah it sucks | 01:53 |
RougeRR | this luckilyu didnt spoil our view | 01:53 |
contingo | London yeah | 01:53 |
RougeRR | contingo, | 01:54 |
RougeRR | ill be safe | 01:54 |
RougeRR | ;) | 01:54 |
RougeRR | https://www.jerseytravel.com/images/hotels/mont-orgueil-castle/mont-orgueil-castle-02.jpg | 01:54 |
RougeRR | got a castle in line of sight | 01:54 |
contingo | nice | 01:55 |
contingo | could you put me up in the cowshed | 01:55 |
RougeRR | aye, german bunkers on top | 01:55 |
RougeRR | aye, we'll have to isolate ya first | 01:55 |
RougeRR | ;) | 01:55 |
contingo | lol | 01:56 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 00:47 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: First case Nigeria — from The Guardian at 00:47: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/j9E0C9 | 01:56 |
contingo | do those Aurigny trislanders fly to Jersey too | 01:56 |
contingo | that's how I get to Alderney | 01:56 |
RougeRR | yeah | 01:56 |
RougeRR | or blue island | 01:56 |
contingo | cosy lil aircraft | 01:57 |
RougeRR | better off alderny id think | 01:57 |
RougeRR | if you got supplies | 01:57 |
RougeRR | i should sleep | 01:57 |
RougeRR | no point worrying | 01:57 |
contingo | me too | 01:58 |
contingo | keep us posted | 01:58 |
RougeRR | will do :) | 02:00 |
RougeRR | will see what my cousin comes back with | 02:00 |
RougeRR | this make sit seem like jersey would shut down a bit | 02:00 |
RougeRR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-latest-updates-who-mission-director-warns-world-is-simply-not-ready | 02:00 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:54 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US stocks suffer biggest one-day fall, Australian market dives: Ireland and Netherlands report first cases as US officials monitor thousands getting off domestic flights for symptoms. Follow live news — from The Guardian at 00:54: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 02:08 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Do as you wish! | 02:11 |
LjL | RougeRR, if we're so not ready and this virus decimates us and kills the economy maybe that's going to be good for the planet | 02:12 |
LjL | that's one possible viewpoint at least | 02:12 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 01:15 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 318 new cases and 41 new deaths in Hubei province — from The Guardian at 01:15: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/SvGqfr | 02:20 |
LjL | that's not useful news stormer | 02:33 |
LjL | i'm looking at https://offloop.net/covid19/ with both china and south korea turned off | 02:41 |
LjL | doesn't it kinda seem that apart from some slight oddities like vietnam which seems remarkably able to contain it (?), and various countries that are basically stable, Japan is the only "worrisome" country that's actually managing to make that thing look linear | 02:41 |
LjL | i mean, they were flat, then they spiked, but it doesn't look exponential like korea and italy sort of do | 02:42 |
LjL | and iran went like blam | 02:42 |
tinwhiskers | Kuwait looks a bit dodgy but the numbers are still very low so it doesn't mean much yet | 02:53 |
contingo | i shall have a look tomorrow | 02:54 |
contingo | rest and revivify | 02:54 |
tinwhiskers | If you clear everything and turn on France and Germany, and also check the "Include latest non-authoritative data" checkbox I'd say there is some concern for those two, but again, the numbers are low. | 02:54 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but being real, france and germany are going to spike | 02:55 |
LjL | regardless of the graphs | 02:56 |
tinwhiskers | how do you mean? | 02:56 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, open borders with italy, the fact that there is no particular reason for italy to have spiked alone in the middle of central europe | 02:56 |
tinwhiskers | oh. right. yeah | 02:56 |
tinwhiskers | It looks like that might be beginning is all | 02:57 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, though if i include the non-auth data it just looks a little weird | 02:58 |
tinwhiskers | oh. does it? | 02:58 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, well... France is just the same as without, and Germany is very mildly spiking compared to yesterday? | 02:58 |
LjL | maybe the unofficial have become official since you last checked? | 02:59 |
tinwhiskers | Oh. I see. I was looking at old data. | 02:59 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, new official data now. | 02:59 |
LjL | so yeah they're spiking | 02:59 |
LjL | we have a really cruel saying in italian | 02:59 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, no use in turning that on now | 02:59 |
LjL | %tr <it Mal comune, mezzo gaudio. | 02:59 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: Two in distress make sorrow less. (MateCat) — Badly common, half joy. (Google) — *Mal Common, half *gaudio. (Apertium) | 02:59 |
tinwhiskers | :-) | 03:00 |
LjL | Brainstorm, thanks i didn't know that english one | 03:00 |
LjL | it's literally shared harm, half joy | 03:00 |
LjL | but really the shared harm was already there, at least when we're all equally visibly exponential, i won't feel like i'm in the middle of plaguetown | 03:01 |
tinwhiskers | heh. | 03:02 |
tinwhiskers | Another week will be very telling | 03:02 |
LjL | yeah, how do i make suicide pills just in case? | 03:03 |
LjL | and this is a note for the mental health services: i'm just kidding | 03:03 |
tinwhiskers | exit bag ftw | 03:04 |
LjL | doesn't that require somewhat prominent bottles of gas | 03:05 |
LjL | okay actually i should be sticking to the "i'm kidding" | 03:05 |
tinwhiskers | well, one bottle of gas. You might have one of those for party balloons or a mig/tig wielder. | 03:06 |
tinwhiskers | yes... I'm just kidding... | 03:06 |
LjL | [the other, i assume] "room is based on facts IMO (the other room run by some kike LjL is about feelings). as for "white male" I state this for medical purposes (in case if I, like, kick the bucket xd) LjL" | 03:08 |
tinwhiskers | lol | 03:08 |
tinwhiskers | what is the other "room"? | 03:08 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, it's on Matrix, so "room" is actually the proper term | 03:09 |
tinwhiskers | oh. ok | 03:09 |
LjL | *this* channel is bridged with Matrix | 03:09 |
tinwhiskers | oohhhh | 03:09 |
LjL | %tell contingo: "Oh, and by the way, over r/wuhan_flu, a biologist claims that comparing wuhan flu to native americans vs smallpox is a better comparison, with similar R0 and incubation periods, that ended up killing 25-50% of people." | 03:09 |
Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around. | 03:09 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, that person was basically sounding happy if people died because their governments acted badly, and you might see how that potentially rubs me the wrong way. but i restrained myself. then he got Jews into the pot, and i felt entitled to op up | 03:10 |
tinwhiskers | I didn't think you were being too unreasonable. | 03:12 |
tinwhiskers | you could have given them a little more rope I guess | 03:12 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, they had been a bit like that before you joined too | 03:13 |
LjL | i think | 03:13 |
LjL | %tell contingo: which i assume is https://np.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/comments/faklo2/biologist_here_covid19_is_much_worse_than_the/ although i see that subreddit is probably(?) meant as a joke, but this post might not be | 03:14 |
Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around. | 03:14 |
tinwhiskers | Ah, I see | 03:14 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, anyway him just going ahead and calling me a "kike" in the other room honestly gives me enough feedback to feel okay with my decision | 03:14 |
LjL | i am not sure whether i should read that reddit post without someone competent holding my hand | 03:16 |
LjL | and when i am not sure about this sort of potentially panic inducing things, it usually means "no" | 03:16 |
LjL | and i usually do it anyway | 03:16 |
tinwhiskers | I chose "No Thank You" | 03:16 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but really that post looks serious. if you just didn't want to see hoaxes, you may choose to rethink that. if you just don't want to get scared, you may want to not rethink it. | 03:18 |
LjL | i'm going to save it and read it tomorrow when i'm not about to go to bed | 03:18 |
LjL | sleepless night would make my immunes bad | 03:18 |
LjL | well, worse | 03:19 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australian doctors warn of overwhelmed public health system in event of coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/N4vzjz | 03:27 |
LjL | "I guess the silver lining is that these things if natural tend to be eugenic assuming it doesn't just kill everyone" can i underline again how my decision appears to be the correct one tinwhiskers? | 03:33 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 03:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:33 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US stocks suffer biggest one-day fall, Australian market dives: Ireland and Netherlands report first cases as US officials monitor thousands getting off domestic flights for symptoms. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 03:40 |
LjL | %tr Bollettino coronavirus, dati discrepanti. Angelo Borrelli conteggia 528 casi positivi. Secondo Walter Ricciardi i casi sono solo 282 e così replica: "Un errore fare i tamponi agli asintomatici, si considerano positivi solo i test accertati dall'ISS". | 03:47 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: Coronavirus bulletin, discrepant data. Angelo Borrelli counts 528 positive cases. According to Walter Ricciardi there are only 282 cases and he replies: "It is a mistake to swab asymptomatics, only the tests ascertained by the ISS are considered positive". (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 03:47 |
LjL | Guardian *could* stop posting that with an updated timestamp... | 03:47 |
LjL | %tell contingo: So, this is what we'll get with the new way of counting, apparently: "Coronavirus bulletin, discrepant data. Angelo Borrelli counts 528 positive cases. According to Walter Ricciardi there are only 282 cases and he replies: "It is a mistake to swab asymptomatics, only the tests ascertained by the ISS are considered positive"." (GT) | 03:48 |
Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around. | 03:48 |
LjL | total cheating | 03:49 |
LjL | of course they won't suddenly bring it down to 282 because that would be "suspicious2 | 03:49 |
LjL | they'll just start counting differently from now on | 03:49 |
LjL | and magically, we'll have a tapering | 03:49 |
LjL | disconnected from reality | 03:49 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:47 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: first case detected in sub-Saharan Africa as stock market dives again → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 04:04 |
pwr22 | <LjL "[the other, i assume] "room is b"> Not a nice thing to post 😟. I'm glad they did though because it prompted me to find this room / channel | 05:11 |
pwr22 | I'm here from the land of matrix, sunshine and rainbows 🙂 | 05:12 |
pwr22 | The other room has become increasingly 4chan esque recently - I can't say I'm a fan | 05:12 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:30 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus found in sub-Saharan Africa as WHO says spread could 'get out of control' → https://is.gd/bLP6FU | 06:44 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:31 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: first case detected in New Zealand as stock markets fall further → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 06:57 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:53 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 07:09 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:00 UTC: World Bank's $500m coronavirus push 'too late' for poor countries, experts say: Bank accused of ‘waiting for people to die’ as bonds designed to provide fast funding for pandemics are censured as ‘obscene’ → https://is.gd/6i0cB1 | 08:10 |
Tobi[m] | Do we want to set this world wide overview statistic as room widget? https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd | 09:21 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:21 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 09:32 |
Albright | Tobi[m]: That seems to be poorly made. It only works in Chrome. | 09:36 |
Tobi[m] | hm... I'm using Safari, working well | 09:37 |
tinwhiskers | works ok in firefox for me | 09:39 |
Albright | Huh. Both Firefox and Safari are stuck on the bouncing blue bars on my end. | 09:40 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:40 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: FTSE tumbles as world stock markets are hit by global spread of disease – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 09:51 |
Albright | Buying opportunity. I wish I could afford to invest. | 09:52 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 09:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Msc Meraviglia sbarcata in Messico. Contagi al minimo in Cina. British Airways cancella altri voli per l'Italia - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/odFrn7 | 10:10 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: FTSE tumbles as world stock markets are hit by global spread of disease – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 10:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 09:35 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, primi casi di contagio in Nigeria, Olanda e Bielorussia - Rai News → https://is.gd/4U56NL | 10:48 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:45 UTC: What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?: What are the symptoms caused by the virus from Wuhan in China, how does it spread, and should you call a doctor? → https://is.gd/8MiqWh | 10:54 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:57 UTC: Switzerland: Swiss government bans large events on back of coronavirus crisis → https://is.gd/oNf8Hr | 11:06 |
RougeRR | morning campers | 11:23 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:19 UTC: Newcastle ban handshakes at training ground over coronavirus fears: Players and staff usually shake hands in morning ritual ‘We’ve stopped that on the advice of the doctor,’ says Steve Bruce Newcastle have introduced a training-ground handshake ban in an attempt to guard against the spread of the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/9XFLdE | 11:25 |
Albright | Mornin' | 11:26 |
RougeRR | hey | 11:26 |
RougeRR | im off today to get supplies | 11:26 |
Albright | The Swiss government banning large events… I'd hope that our first amendment (which guarantees right of assembly) would prevent that. But our constitution is constantly violated to the point that it barely exists anymore, so who knows. | 11:27 |
RougeRR | Albright, is it a bad idea? | 11:28 |
RougeRR | usually health trumps other rights | 11:28 |
Albright | RougeRR: That's literally the government doing things "for your own good." IMO personal civil rights need to trump everything. | 11:29 |
RougeRR | Albright, im not sure where i stand on that | 11:29 |
RougeRR | but i respect your opinion to disagree either way | 11:29 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 10:23 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, primi casi di contagio in Nigeria, Olanda e Bielorussia - Rai News → https://is.gd/4U56NL | 11:32 |
RougeRR | somewhat concerning | 11:36 |
RougeRR | https://nypost.com/2020/02/28/dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-low-level-of-coronavirus/ | 11:36 |
RougeRR | early days | 11:36 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: first case in Wales as two further cases in England take UK total to 19 – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 11:38 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:00 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: 'It's no worse than the flu': busting the coronavirus myths → https://is.gd/NdHgAj | 12:09 |
RougeRR | hand sanitizer has run out here | 12:27 |
RougeRR | guna DIY it | 12:27 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 11:22 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, annullato il Salone dell'auto di Ginevra. Contagi in Nigeria e in Europa, legati all'Italia - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj | 12:28 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 11:26 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, i contagiati aumentano in Europa - Corriere della Sera → https://is.gd/fBajDh | 12:35 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: first case in Wales as two further cases in England take UK total to 19 – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 12:41 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 11:49 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj | 12:54 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:54 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus cases rise 46% as fears of global crisis grow → https://is.gd/MS3iwM | 13:00 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 11:56 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Nigeria confirms first coronavirus case: All the latest updates Al Jazeera English Nigeria [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj | 13:06 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:09 UTC: Coronavirus: Boris Johnson to hold Cobra meeting as UK cases rise to 19 – latest updates: First case in Wales; Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania also report first cases as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 13:19 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 12:22 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj | 13:25 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:36 UTC: Coronavirus: Boris Johnson to hold Cobra meeting as UK cases rise to 19 – latest updates: First case in Wales; Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania also report first cases as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 13:50 |
LjL | %tell contingo: I suspect this doesn't say anything we didn't already know, but just in case it does... It's about virus viability on surfaces https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463/ | 13:56 |
Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around. | 13:56 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:53 UTC: Coronavirus: Cobra meeting to be held on Monday as UK cases rise to 19 – latest updates: First case in Wales; Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania also report first cases as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 14:03 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 13:11 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 now in more than 50 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 now in more than 50 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj | 14:16 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:29 UTC: Coronavirus: British man on Diamond Princess cruise ship dies, Japanese media report – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus, local media report, as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 14:34 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 13:50 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise becomes first Briton to die from illness – latest updates - The Guardian → https://is.gd/CtQxHY | 14:53 |
Albright | Interesting article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak | 15:03 |
Albright | Of course Wikipedia itself is often a misinformation vector, but… | 15:03 |
LjL | less so than most | 15:07 |
LjL | and often just because stupid newspapers cause circular references | 15:07 |
Albright | Obligatory relevant XKCD link: https://xkcd.com/978/ | 15:12 |
Albright | Though I'd argue that false or biased news articles can be the origin of misinformation just as much as Wikipedia itself. There's a bad habit of treating "published" articles as legitimate sources regardless of the truthfulness of them. | 15:14 |
LjL | Albright, yes, but wikipedia does have intricate, somewhat long, but often productive processes of weeding out even seemingly okay sources | 15:19 |
LjL | it has to be taken as a work in progress, always, but that's never hidden | 15:19 |
LjL | nothing is perfect, but it's hard enough to find things that are *decent* | 15:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 14:31 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise becomes first Briton to die from illness – latest updates - The Guardian → https://is.gd/CtQxHY | 15:34 |
LjL | %cases italy | 15:44 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 655 cases, 17 deaths (2.6% of cases), 45 recoveries as of 2020-02-27T23:23:02. | 15:44 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 27.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 15:44 |
LjL | at least we also have recoveries now... | 15:44 |
LjL | except the cases will artifically "taper off" if the malice i'm seeing is actually enacted | 15:44 |
pwr22 | %cases japan | 15:50 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: In all areas, Japan, there are 214 cases, 4 deaths (1.9% of cases), 22 recoveries as of 2020-02-27T23:33:02. | 15:50 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 15.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 15:50 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 14:49 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, l'andamento del contagio nel mondo - Rai News → https://is.gd/SvZXxl | 15:58 |
LjL | pwr22, i say this when i see new people using the bot, do look at the timestamp, because unfortunately my data can't be very up to date. if you want the latest data, the topic has a few links to maps/graphs | 16:00 |
LjL | oh you're on matrix so you see the wrong topic | 16:00 |
LjL | there | 16:01 |
pwr22 | Thanks | 16:02 |
pwr22 | I have a friend in Japan ATM | 16:02 |
LjL | so do i, although priorities command that i'm freaking out about myself first :( | 16:03 |
sneep | I have myself in Japan ATM | 16:04 |
LjL | you're all money | 16:04 |
LjL | you're in ATMs | 16:04 |
pwr22 | 😆 | 16:05 |
pwr22 | Does anyone know of a tracker that actually displays well on mobile? | 16:05 |
pwr22 | Most I've found don't work well | 16:05 |
sneep | get a real computer | 16:05 |
pwr22 | 😜 | 16:06 |
LjL | pwr22, hmm i have only tried JHU's on mobile and indeed it worked badly | 16:06 |
LjL | so i don't have an answer right now | 16:07 |
LjL | but i'll make a sublist for mobile-friendly ones when i can, seems like a good idea | 16:07 |
pwr22 | Awesome, I'll let you know if I find any | 16:08 |
pwr22 | https://youtu.be/YX0H3O_Uiec | 16:08 |
pwr22 | WHO press conference live | 16:08 |
sneep | https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 does this display okay on mobile? | 16:08 |
sneep | i think i opened this on my phone once | 16:08 |
sneep | but don't remember how much it sucked | 16:08 |
pwr22 | Not good in portrait | 16:10 |
pwr22 | None of these things seem to use responsive frameworks 😭 | 16:10 |
pwr22 | It's almost sort of passable in landscape | 16:10 |
LjL | yeah it's barely usable in landscape | 16:11 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:00 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise becomes first Briton to die from illness – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 16:11 |
LjL | pwr22, they haven't started talking yet or is my audio bad | 16:11 |
pwr22 | Same here | 16:12 |
Albright | Yeah, they're not talking yet. | 16:12 |
LjL | in general if you have links that you feel are important and not already in the pastebin in the topic, please do suggest | 16:13 |
Albright | Stock market is crapping out again. | 16:21 |
Albright | WHO meeting is starting. | 16:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 15:12 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 now in more than 50 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News → https://is.gd/zM8eQj | 16:23 |
LjL | it is subtitled this time thankfully | 16:24 |
LjL | i understand the director general but i don't understand pretty much anybody else | 16:25 |
LjL | they expect early results from "therapeutics" in a few weeks | 16:27 |
LjL | no reason right now to think the virus acts differently in different climates | 16:34 |
LjL | containment proper, to stop the virus, is still recommended, even though we see it usually doesn't succeed in containing, but does reduce the impact; mitigation strategies to reduce the impact should also be employed, but we should not accept containment is just not a viable option | 16:36 |
pwr22 | <Albright "Stock market is crapping out aga"> I just bought some S&P 500 😭 | 16:36 |
Albright | CCTV reporter trying to get the WHO to say the virus isn't from China…? | 16:36 |
LjL | (i am summarizing what i hear in the press conference, i'm not stating my own ideas) | 16:36 |
Albright | pwr22: If you can' buy more. | 16:36 |
Albright | s/'/, | 16:36 |
Brainstorm | Albright meant to say: pwr22: If you can, buy more. | 16:36 |
pwr22 | ☺️ | 16:37 |
LjL | so far no hard evidence of the virus in Wuhan animals, so we still need to find the intermediate hosts and understand the very earliest cases | 16:38 |
LjL | diseases can arise anywhere and be a global phenomenon so we should not ascribe blame to specific geographies | 16:38 |
LjL | (said before) if you're over 60 you may want to take additional steps to keep away from potentially sick people, as you are at higher risk | 16:40 |
LjL | something about the UAE that i missed | 16:45 |
LjL | Forbes asks: in terms of the continued spread and growth, how much is it a pandemic vs an epidemic | 16:46 |
LjL | a pandemic means believing everyone one the planet will eventually get infected. if it were influenza they'd have called it a pandemic. but instead it's being shown the course can be significantly stopped or altered. declaring a pandemic is unhelpful since we're still trying to contain it. pandemic may seem descriptive, but if you accept it's a pandemic, you accept, as said above, you're giving up containment and only doing mitigation | 16:47 |
LjL | they want to move beyond colloquial terms, they don't current accept based on the data that everyone will be infected, and China has shown it can be avoided | 16:47 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:40 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 16:48 |
contingo | LjL a bit of ebay hilarity for you before I delve: https://bpaste.net/PK3A | 16:48 |
LjL | if we don't prepare properly though, it could definitely become a pandemic | 16:48 |
LjL | contingo, weird stories are generally a hallmark of needing to block and ignore | 16:49 |
LjL | again this is just r/ebay general opinion | 16:49 |
contingo | I think I'll just send him some free coins | 16:49 |
LjL | as to protective equipment, the primary concern is frontline health workers are protected, so when they talk about PPE they're talking only about specialized material needed. it's inappropriate for that material to be used by the general public. the countries where many people are wearing surgical masks, the WHO has been clear in the past, it doesn't protect YOU. the most important things to do is the usual hygiene measures that keep being mentioned | 16:50 |
LjL | although they are not criticizing people wearing masks, but they stress NOT having a mask doesn't reasonably increase your chances of catching it | 16:51 |
LjL | they're disappointed they can't guarantee PPE for all health workers and are working with governments to change that | 16:51 |
Albright | Wonder what exactly "weakly positive" means | 16:51 |
LjL | in HK there was a dog that tested *weakly* positive for COVID-19 so they are working with HK authorities to understand the results | 16:51 |
LjL | Albright, :\ | 16:51 |
LjL | they want to understand whether potentially dogs can contaminate surfaces | 16:51 |
LjL | she wants them to explain when they think WHO would say "containment isn't working, let's do mitigation" because it's a huge tasks to try to block every transmission | 16:52 |
LjL | answer: there's always a tradeoff. we've had the same issue with Ebola: "they're no point in containment and contact tracing now". it's a rational question to ask and a decision to be made collectively | 16:53 |
LjL | but countries that have focused on containment have achieved much, and that's clear | 16:53 |
LjL | plus, containment is at least slowing the virus | 16:53 |
LjL | even in "sophisticated" countries there have been rapid raise of cases | 16:53 |
LjL | some places are just not ready | 16:53 |
LjL | so containment is also an attempt to slow down the virus | 16:54 |
LjL | (so is it really mitigation? this is my own question) | 16:54 |
LjL | (they're playing with words a lot aren't they) | 16:54 |
LjL | people need to take a reality check now: they need to understand we maybe need to stop asking ourselves semantic questions, and instead, it's time to act | 16:54 |
LjL | (i agree!) | 16:55 |
LjL | we do have examples where containment *has* worked, it's important to remember we've seen very positive trends in China, which has been incredibly aggressive with management | 16:55 |
LjL | also look at Singapore, they are now seeing a rapid decline in cases | 16:55 |
LjL | see also Nepal and Vietname, they are all examples of countries being successful in containment | 16:55 |
LjL | the earlier we act and how robustly will determ whether you'll be dealing with clusters, or hundreds or thousands | 16:56 |
LjL | (good thing she didn't mention Italy :\) | 16:56 |
LjL | there are now 46 countries with cases. 8 of them have not reported for the last 2 weeks, so exclude them. 23 of the remaining only reported 1 case. others less than 10 cases. how can you tell these countries "abandon containment"? | 16:56 |
LjL | so it's not one size fits all. it varies by country | 16:57 |
LjL | if you abandon containment you're undermining something you can do when containment is possible | 16:57 |
LjL | we don't need an either/or dichotomy, we need to trigger all strategies: aggressive containment while preparing for every other eventuality | 16:57 |
LjL | it'd be a BIG mistake | 16:57 |
LjL | outside China, we're still talking about an extremely tiny part of the population infected | 16:58 |
LjL | why would we suggest to surrender there? | 16:58 |
LjL | but he's not saying this disease is not serious! it's serious and dangerous but there is still a narrowing window of opportunity where all strategies can still work | 16:58 |
pwr22 | UK seems to have been able to trace and contain all the cases that have popped up here too | 16:59 |
pwr22 | I'm actually impressed by it | 16:59 |
LjL | pwr22, though Italy seemed the same, with 3 cases for a long time, then boom | 16:59 |
LjL | bottom line: don't abandon the "blended" comprehensive approach, and use containment in every country | 17:00 |
LjL | they increased the global risk from HIGH to VERY HIGH though, because the situation is very serious | 17:00 |
LjL | just a couple of minutes left | 17:00 |
LjL | financial times asks: what practical implications (if any) raising the level from HIGH to VERY HIGH globally has? you mentioned it a couple of times but didn't say if it makes any practical difference or it's just a symbolic statement. what should people do in reaction? | 17:01 |
LjL | answer: it doesn't make a legal difference in how each state behaves, but they hope it's consistent with the risks being rising, and more countries being involved and struggling with containment | 17:02 |
LjL | it's also an internal process to present the epidemiologic level, which is not explained to management, instead they just tell them about it the same way they are telling us now | 17:02 |
LjL | (great!) | 17:03 |
LjL | the process is so we don't become complacent with ourselves | 17:03 |
LjL | the window of opportunity is closing, so that's why the risk assessment changes | 17:03 |
LjL | Reuters: Nigeria is one important case. what is your assessment in their capacity to detect and isolate? are you working with them? | 17:04 |
LjL | yes, there has been a confirmed case there. a doctor of theirs joined them to discuss, and he's now back in Nigeria with information on what to do | 17:04 |
LjL | Nigeria CDC has been established, and the country has fought measles, cholera etc | 17:05 |
LjL | they have already done things requiring identification and isolation, they have already tested the mechanisms for that | 17:05 |
LjL | they invested in labs in Nigeria which can now convert from diagnosing say influenza, to diagnosing this | 17:06 |
LjL | the country does have many vulnerable people though esp. in the north but the disease is a single importation for now, confirmed and isolated quickly | 17:06 |
LjL | the fundamentals of response: identification, diagnosis, it applies everywhere on the planet, so the Nigerian doctor who was in China has certainly learned many lessons on how to deal with it | 17:08 |
LjL | question: going back to the VERY HIGH level declaration: is that the highest possible level? you don't officially use the word "pandemic"? what about people reclared "recovered" and then they have the virus? | 17:08 |
LjL | *** does it give immunity? | 17:08 |
LjL | yes, this is the highest level in terms of spread and impact | 17:09 |
LjL | but it's not to scare or alarm. it's to get countries to understand that it's in their control to contain | 17:09 |
LjL | to governments: "wake up, get ready, this virus may be on its way and you need to be ready" | 17:09 |
LjL | "we can avoid the worst of it but the level of concern is at its highest" | 17:09 |
LjL | yes, we have had case reports of individuals who have recovered, tested neg, but then gone on to test positive | 17:10 |
LjL | this requires further study | 17:10 |
LjL | does testing positive actually mean they are shedding virus? | 17:10 |
LjL | they do not know this yet | 17:10 |
LjL | contingo, ı | 17:10 |
LjL | they(?) are following people prospectively for days or weeks to see what the profile actually looks like. but the fact so many people have recovered is a positive fact. but they do need to follow those individuals | 17:11 |
LjL | with regards to immunity | 17:11 |
LjL | there are serological essays being developed | 17:11 |
LjL | what scientists are doing is looking at antibody response in people who have had it, to see if there are neutralizing antibodies | 17:11 |
LjL | as we have more and more recoveries, we'll have more evidence to give an answer on that | 17:11 |
contingo | one sec | 17:11 |
LjL | contingo, i'm just markinng these lines to you | 17:12 |
LjL | last question, from canada: what expectation does the WHO in drug supply disruption because of the situation in China? | 17:12 |
LjL | they do believe with the decreasing incidents in China, many companies who produce needed thigns are opening again, and everything is going back to running again | 17:13 |
LjL | many people around the world rely on them for medicines | 17:13 |
LjL | they hope those industries in China in particular who are producing these particular products come back online asap | 17:13 |
LjL | --- | 17:13 |
contingo | ok | 17:17 |
LjL | contingo, i think i went from summarizing the salient point to basically transcribing | 17:17 |
LjL | at least that means i get better with english | 17:17 |
LjL | but those lines about reinfections | 17:17 |
LjL | perhaps the rest is not so important | 17:17 |
LjL | they just say it's pretty damned bad, but don't want to call it a pandemic or that'd be giving up | 17:18 |
LjL | they gave a number of positive examples of countries succeding, basically everyone but Italy | 17:18 |
contingo | the subreddit you linked is now quarantined (haha) for being a suspected hoax community | 17:19 |
contingo | did they highlight singapore when it comes to countries succeeding? | 17:20 |
LjL | contingo, it already was like that yesterday, i think the sub *is* mostly to lighten up, but that particular post... please read it | 17:21 |
LjL | contingo, yes they did | 17:21 |
LjL | 20<LjL>30 we do have examples where containment *has* worked, it's important to remember we've seen very positive trends in China, which has been incredibly aggressive with management | 17:22 |
LjL | 20<LjL>30 also look at Singapore, they are now seeing a rapid decline in cases | 17:22 |
LjL | 20<LjL>30 see also Nepal and Vietname, they are all examples of countries being successful in containment | 17:22 |
contingo | talking about weakly positive results, idk the technicalities here, but I've done various PCR tests for various things in labs and ended up with some fluorescing band in a gel where you or a machine is like, hmm is this band really there or is it an anomaly / contaminant / random brightness fluctuation | 17:24 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 16:14 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Coronavirus risk upgraded to "very high" by World Health Organization as death toll mounts - CBS News → https://is.gd/zM8eQj | 17:25 |
contingo | I think with Singapore, they're a centre of global trade and travel so you'd expect containment to be very hard, but not only do they have good preparedness, containment measures, excellent infrastructure to do contact tracking, extremely highly obedient population, willingness to do above-and-beyond community testing | 17:26 |
LjL | contingo, well i assume they can readily test the same dog again | 17:27 |
contingo | they're also tropical island, lots of bright sunlight, hot and humid, "fresh air" effect (see: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029470-700-fresh-air-and-sunshine-the-forgotten-antibiotics/ ) | 17:27 |
LjL | contingo, yes okay fly me to Singapore and then bribe people to keep me from being sent into the dungeons | 17:27 |
LjL | it's counterintuitive to me that humid is good, but i've heard it before | 17:28 |
contingo | bribing people will get you thrown in dungeons in Singapore | 17:28 |
contingo | it's the rare example of a single-party state with low corruption index | 17:28 |
LjL | contingo, oh lord is that the experiment that was done in the US and the UK with supposedly harmless bacteria which may have actually harmed a ton of people? | 17:29 |
LjL | contingo, okay then don't bribe them *in order to* keep me good, should be even easier | 17:29 |
contingo | oh sorry, paywall | 17:29 |
LjL | yep | 17:30 |
LjL | so spoilers, does the open air effect exist and do we know what it's actually caused by | 17:30 |
LjL | also, let's say fresh air and sunshine is effective, what's the balance between getting fresh air and sunshine while at the same time that means you expose yourself to people | 17:32 |
contingo | yes it does, and it's partly attributed to free hydroxyl radicals | 17:33 |
contingo | well if the weather is sunny and warm and breezy then people are tending not to huddle together at the margins of buildings, under canopies, in the vicinity of outdoor heating (patio infrareds are very common here) | 17:34 |
contingo | or in/under the tiny shelters they provide at outdoor train and tube stations here | 17:37 |
contingo | people are more dispersed | 17:37 |
contingo | it's really down to that | 17:37 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:25 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 17:37 |
contingo | and that people leave their windows open and providing someone isn't coughing virus through the window, the effect prevails | 17:37 |
contingo | it must be very difficult to model in detail | 17:38 |
LjL | contingo, then i guess i should have a walk outside right now, though, my mom fell asleep from... i hope just exhaustion | 17:38 |
contingo | you can find some recent papers on it w.r.t. hospital airflow and design | 17:38 |
LjL | "just". it's dangerous too | 17:38 |
LjL | the WHO director specifically said that >60yo should, to paraphrase, stay the hell at home | 17:38 |
LjL | but my parents are doing all the opposite | 17:38 |
contingo | if not sunny and warm the less the effect I think | 17:39 |
LjL | contingo, it's sunny and warm for... this time of the year | 17:39 |
LjL | and milan | 17:39 |
LjL | so i guess not very sunny or warm, but sorta | 17:39 |
contingo | it's horrible here | 17:40 |
LjL | contingo, https://www.milanocam.it/ https://www.milanocam.it/ParcoVergani/ is basically where i live | 17:40 |
LjL | these are realtime | 17:40 |
LjL | also i probably shouldn't be saying where i live in detail in a public channel | 17:40 |
LjL | contingo, https://www.milanocam.it/CityLife_1/ has a lot of sunshine | 17:40 |
LjL | lol | 17:40 |
LjL | https://www.milanocam.it/ParcoSempione_1/ has mountains in the background, a rare sight | 17:41 |
LjL | humidity is VERY low... | 17:41 |
LjL | how does one even have 13% humidity | 17:41 |
contingo | we had a little peek of sun yesterday afternoon and I couldn't remember when I last saw it | 17:41 |
LjL | contingo, it says 30% on my weather station indoors, should i start the humidifer | 17:42 |
LjL | and if i do should i enable the ion thing | 17:42 |
LjL | i never know whether that's any use at all | 17:42 |
LjL | all i know is lots of red stuff develops inside the humidifers | 17:42 |
LjL | humidifier | 17:42 |
LjL | and is hard to clean | 17:42 |
LjL | looks like humidity fell drastically from 60% to 20% in the span of an hour during early morning | 17:43 |
contingo | humidifiers are generally bacteria incubators unless you become a devoted humidifier technician | 17:43 |
contingo | LjL, you have done all prepping on the basis you'll still have reliable electricity and water supplies, as they do in Wuhan, right? | 17:46 |
LjL | contingo, yes but considering we've done basically no prepping... | 17:46 |
LjL | contingo, yeah, that's kind of what i thought about humidifiers :\ but then again this is no bacterium | 17:46 |
contingo | I thought your parents were spending days going from supermarket to supermarket | 17:46 |
LjL | contingo, well, they do that all the time, they've probably done it more than usual... more in terms of "going events" than actual important stuff they've bought | 17:47 |
LjL | like i mean, today my dad went to get fixed shoes | 17:47 |
LjL | they do a lot of things that seem unnecessary | 17:47 |
contingo | what are you missing in terms of basic prep? | 17:47 |
LjL | contingo, my parents staying at home and trying to avoid getting infected, mainly. we have "sort of" enough medicines and food for a few days... we have disinfectants... we don't have face masks but you know how that is | 17:48 |
LjL | but really, we are about as prepared as ever. we always have a ton of medicines and a ton of food | 17:48 |
LjL | but that's probably not the "ton" preppers mean | 17:49 |
LjL | and my sister probably goes outside too, i bet | 17:49 |
contingo | but just food for a few days? | 17:49 |
LjL | contingo, i'm afraid so, not months | 17:49 |
LjL | contingo, i don't think they have focused on durable food either | 17:49 |
LjL | i just can't get them to do anything unusual really | 17:49 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 16:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, morto un britannico: era sulla Diamond Princess. Oms: "Rischio ora è molto alto" - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/odFrn7 | 17:49 |
LjL | contingo, now when my mom was asleep, my dad came home, i *looked* at my mom, said nothing, and he muttered "leave her alone" | 17:50 |
LjL | so i can't even look worried at a sleeping person without being hushed | 17:50 |
contingo | do you have a remaining eBay budget for antique gadgets and batteries you could instead devote to a bag of rice or pasta | 17:50 |
contingo | large bags | 17:51 |
LjL | contingo, i guess. the problem is always if i buy things and that creates distress with my family. like the oxygen thing. do you really think it's likely to become that bad? and electricity and water and stuff eventually failing also? | 17:52 |
contingo | also tinned goods, vitamins | 17:52 |
LjL | i know you don't want me to panic but i also need to adjust my reaction to... somewhere between my parents' "doing nothing special", and whatever is required in a harsh case | 17:53 |
LjL | i am in a position where i don't generally decide anything about how things are run | 17:54 |
LjL | but i could override that, with frictions and yelling, if required | 17:54 |
LjL | i.e. i could order stuff online | 17:54 |
LjL | i can't stop them from going outside i'm afraid | 17:54 |
contingo | I have no idea! I just have this stuff as a matter of course. if I'm prepping I'm prepping and if I'm not, I'm not. I don't have the situation of dependency where my decisions are controlled by others and I feel responsible for the decisions of others. If the virus situation does eventually resolve then lessons about that situation are what I would take time to address | 17:56 |
contingo | I have no idea! <- if things are likely to become that bad | 17:57 |
pwr22 | LjL: thanks for transcribing all of that and your English is great! | 18:00 |
LjL | pwr22, i ended up understanding more than i thought i would | 18:00 |
LjL | contingo, well you see from my point of view, preppers are some "extreme" people. they may well be the ones who survive, but they don't represent the norm. does that matter? it does to my parents, because if i tell them "contingo told me to stock up on meds", maybe they'll say "yeah, fair, i'm going to get a prescription". if i tell them "contingo told me to stock up on meds and buy flashlights for when the power grid fails" they'll say "your friend is | 18:02 |
LjL | crazy" | 18:02 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:46 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 18:02 |
LjL | so you see my conundrum, i need to... do just the right amount to avoid the reaction being counterproductive | 18:02 |
LjL | my goal is staying alive and my family also staying alive and well, for an otherwise expected amount of time... | 18:03 |
LjL | sounds simple | 18:03 |
contingo | it's not really that I"m telling you or anyone to do anything. What I say is more like, if one were to decide to prepare for some set of circumstances, then here is the list of things that should be covered and should be considered | 18:10 |
contingo | if someone comes to me and says, I want to prepare to the level that we have no electricity for months and the water supply becomes unreliable / unsafe, then I don't make a value judgment, I can just give a list of helpful things | 18:12 |
LjL | contingo, well i guess you as most people don't want the responsibility of "telling me what to do" and then it turns out it's the wrong thing. but, IRL, i talk to my dad, he just sighs at me... i talk to my mom, she's only able to respond in monosyllables... i won't even attempt to talk to my sister, haven't in years... we're all going crazy here, but i'm possibly the only one who can steer things in a "not just doing the usual things" direction - but it's | 18:13 |
LjL | incredibly hard to figure out what to do | 18:13 |
LjL | hypochondriacs get sick too, and they are also sometimes right, is what i feel and my parents seemingly don't | 18:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 17:03 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. A Lodi emergenza ricoveri. Primi due casi in Umbria - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj | 18:14 |
contingo | well be sure to take some time away from the process of trying to figure things out | 18:14 |
LjL | that's right, *me* having a panic attack would also be very much an issue | 18:14 |
LjL | or even just snapping with my parents | 18:14 |
LjL | even when trying to be extremely cautious there's a constantly latent snapping about to occur (from both sides) | 18:15 |
pwr22 | So far even if it spreads a lot, the risk to an otherwise healthy individual is pretty low | 18:16 |
pwr22 | Sure, it's not as low as seasonal flu but it's not like ebola level | 18:16 |
pwr22 | I'm more worried about people in my family who are at risk ☹︎ | 18:16 |
LjL | pwr22, yes, same | 18:17 |
LjL | who are at risk and who don't seem to get the risk | 18:17 |
pwr22 | Yeah, I can imagine it's certainly more scary for you being in Italy | 18:17 |
pwr22 | I hope everything works out ok and simmers down there! | 18:17 |
LjL | pwr22, i'm not even just in Italy, i'm just 50km short of the epicenter | 18:18 |
pwr22 | ☹︎ | 18:18 |
pwr22 | The WHO advice seems sensible to me at least 👍️ | 18:21 |
LjL | well they keep saying the same things | 18:25 |
LjL | i've only really hated the part where "packages from china are okay because the virus only lasts on surfaces for a couple hours" | 18:25 |
LjL | it's NOT TRUE that we know that | 18:25 |
LjL | economy is important, getting packages is important, they may contain medicines | 18:25 |
LjL | but i can't agree with just flatly telling lies | 18:26 |
pwr22 | It may be the virus usually doesn't survive that long? I don't remember the specific details of where that "up to 9 days" figure came from | 18:30 |
LjL | pwr22, it's a recent review study, and it's not about this virus but other, older, known coronaviruses (SARS etc) | 18:31 |
LjL | the reality is we don't know | 18:32 |
LjL | but it is *possible* it survives up to 9 days | 18:32 |
LjL | or maybe just two minutes | 18:32 |
LjL | but we don't know | 18:32 |
LjL | saying that we KNOW it only survives a few hours, so packages are safe | 18:32 |
LjL | is a lie | 18:32 |
pwr22 | I would have thought they would have looked into this before making those kinds of statements? | 18:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:29 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 18:35 |
LjL | pwr22, from their point of view (at least as i imagine it), it's like... if it *really* survives 9 days, and we tell people that, 1) they won't even bother cleaning anything because they'll assume it's impossible to keep it from all surfaces, 2) the economy will take a huge hit as people are scared to touch anything shipped | 18:39 |
LjL | so from this point of view it may seem reasonable to lie about it, because no good will come from people knowing it | 18:39 |
LjL | but i counter, *some* people, like me, will figure out it's a lie, and see it as FUD, and get even more panicky than they'd otherwise have been, and not knowing what to believe | 18:40 |
LjL | the economy isn't everything | 18:40 |
RougeR | heya | 18:41 |
LjL | pwr22, anyway this is what the "up to 9 days" comes from to my knowledge https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463/ | 18:42 |
LjL | hi RougeR | 18:42 |
pwr22 | Yeah, I see the logic but I think that if there was any reasonable risk they wouldn't prioritise the economy over containment since it will inevitably fuck everything | 18:42 |
RougeR | LjL, | 18:42 |
RougeR | hey | 18:42 |
RougeR | LjL, welp. did some stockups today | 18:42 |
LjL | pwr22, i have no such optimism | 18:42 |
RougeR | oats n pasta | 18:42 |
RougeR | my dad is fucking awful to shop with | 18:42 |
LjL | RougeR, i am still pondering whether i should do that, against the fact my family will get mad at me for doing it | 18:42 |
RougeR | im going on my own tommorow to get tinned goods | 18:42 |
RougeR | its so expensive here! | 18:43 |
RougeR | LjL, hand sanitizer sold out here | 18:43 |
RougeR | i grabbed sterlising fluid 2L and some antisceptic 2L | 18:43 |
LjL | RougeR, yes, same here, but we have a reasonable amount. it can also be made from alcohol and other things. my pharmacy are now making their own, we bought a jar of it, it seems okay to me | 18:43 |
RougeR | the sterlilising fluid can also be used to create clean drinking water | 18:43 |
RougeR | LjL, yeah thing is | 18:43 |
RougeR | we have ANOTHER storm coming in | 18:44 |
RougeR | so we cant resupply | 18:44 |
LjL | %tr <it Le disgrazie non vengono mai sole. | 18:44 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: Misfortunes never come alone. (Google) — The misfortunes do not come ever alone. (Apertium) | 18:44 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News at 17:39 UTC: Coronavirus spreads to more countries as markets take historic tumble - CNN International: Coronavirus spreads to more countries as markets take historic tumble CNN International Live updates: Coronavirus pummels financial markets; Japanese island declares state of emergency The Washington Post WHO Raises Risk [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/MXk7GI | 18:47 |
LjL | does anyone mind if i remove Google News tentatively? i have other feeds that are barely showing up, and the google feed just posts a lot of the same | 18:48 |
pwr22 | I wonder if sales of huel / soylent / saturo have gone up? | 18:48 |
LjL | no idea | 18:49 |
pwr22 | LjL: I don't mind | 18:49 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:42 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 19:00 |
pwr22 | Does the same news article keep getting reposted due to edits or something? I'm sure I've seen this a few times | 19:01 |
LjL | pwr22, yes, that's one reason they get reposted, another is i sometimes restart the bot to change thing, and another is i'm a bad programmer | 19:02 |
LjL | things | 19:03 |
pwr22 | 😅 | 19:03 |
LjL | like now i just restarted it to remove google news | 19:04 |
LjL | left in google news for italy, hopefully less spammy, and the reddit live thread for worldnews and for italy, plus the guardian, and things that don't post often like the cdc | 19:04 |
LjL | not everyone who has decent live updates has rss feeds unfortunately, they've fallen a bit out of favor | 19:04 |
LjL | and the matrix fell | 19:21 |
LjL | ... or not, since i'm seeing my own message on it | 19:22 |
python476 | hello doomers | 19:24 |
python476 | (jk) | 19:24 |
LjL | easy to be doomers when we're doomed | 19:25 |
python476 | thank covid our lord for only he could stop human consumption and pollution | 19:26 |
LjL | contingo, comments from other places | 19:27 |
LjL | Drosten thinks the real case mortaliy rate will be below 0.5%, although that's much guesswork, leaving out numbers from countries where you think that there are many unreported cases and so on. I personally think that's better than just using the numbers although you already know they aren't good, but it's disputable, of course. Anyway, that would be comparable to severe (!) seasonal flu. | 19:27 |
LjL | But still, that's only the rate of those who die once infected. Many more people will probably be infected than in a seasonal flu. Although those viruses change a bit every year, the immune system is still used to the kind, while that's not the case for SARS-CoV-2. | 19:27 |
LjL | Even if you only get a little cough, the number of viruses you cough out will be much higher than in a seasonal flu case. | 19:27 |
python476 | it's almost funny a microscopic organism is disrupting a planet | 19:27 |
contingo | with only 16 genes | 19:28 |
LjL | contingo, that's loads more than 3 | 19:28 |
contingo | ebola has 7? or 9 | 19:28 |
python476 | so few ? | 19:28 |
contingo | ERVs tend to have 3 | 19:28 |
contingo | I have 25,000 and fail to have any impact at all | 19:29 |
LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_retrovirus | 19:29 |
python476 | crazy.. that's a small combinatorial space | 19:29 |
contingo | I think 3 is the theoretical minimum | 19:29 |
contingo | for a virion | 19:30 |
contingo | %w megavirus | 19:31 |
Brainstorm | contingo, megavirus — noun: 1. Certain viruses significantly larger than other known viruses, 2. Any virus of the family Mimiviridae, 3. Any virus of the proposed family Megaviridae, genus Megavirus, represented by the newly discovered species Megavirus chilensis → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/megavirus | 19:31 |
contingo | a virus with over 1K genes | 19:31 |
contingo | that infects amoebas. be interesting if they evolved to infect human amoeboid cell types | 19:33 |
LjL | that's not my concept of "interesting" at this time but i suppose | 19:34 |
python476 | COVID ONLY 3 GENES (TUMORAL CELLS HAT'EM) | 19:35 |
LjL | O.o | 19:35 |
tinwhiskers | Morning folks. What's new? | 19:37 |
contingo | what's for breakfast in Tonga? | 19:37 |
python476 | LjL: nevermind my humor | 19:37 |
tinwhiskers | Papaya and weetbix | 19:37 |
contingo | I used to live near the weetabix factory | 19:38 |
tinwhiskers | I have dozens of papaya trees so can live off those if I have to hunker down for a while | 19:38 |
tinwhiskers | And coconuts of course | 19:38 |
tinwhiskers | I may look like a prepper, running off solar, rain water, fish, etc., but that's just a happy coincidence | 19:39 |
python476 | anybody knows why plague.com is lacking graph data ? | 19:40 |
python476 | or alternative source | 19:40 |
tinwhiskers | http://offloop.net/covid19/ | 19:40 |
python476 | aww hanks | 19:41 |
tinwhiskers | Depends what data you want I guess. There is a link to the John Hopkins raw data on that page too. | 19:41 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 18:33 UTC: UCI stands by decision to halt UAE Tour over coronavirus uncertainty: Denmark’s Michael Morkov in solitary confinement Froome and Cavendish among riders tested for coronavirus Cycling’s governing body is closely monitoring developments in Abu Dhabi and Berlin after Chris Froome was among those tested for the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mIrY4h | 19:42 |
python476 | haha, I was wondering where other countries were, then I unchecked mainland china | 19:42 |
python476 | thanks tinwhiskers | 19:42 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, it kinda stands out on its own still :-) | 19:42 |
python476 | economists kept warning us about china's wake | 19:43 |
LjL | yes it's a useful site but not everything is clear immediately | 19:43 |
LjL | i guess that's why people study UI/UX | 19:43 |
LjL | i failed to see some of the obvious buttons | 19:43 |
LjL | retrospectively obvious buttons | 19:43 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, it's a bit non-intuitive. My apologies. | 19:44 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, don't apologize, i'm criticizing because you made a useful thing in the first place, otherwise i wouldn't be criticizing | 19:44 |
tinwhiskers | Also, the right-click to select children thing is weird but the only way I could come up with at the time | 19:45 |
python476 | retrospectively obvious should be a book title | 19:48 |
python476 | tinwhiskers: you made it ? | 19:48 |
tinwhiskers | Yah | 19:48 |
python476 | good job then | 19:48 |
python476 | I discovered vuejs/front last november, I realized how fun my ergonomics skills were | 19:48 |
tinwhiskers | Thanks :-) | 19:48 |
python476 | as an ex GUI fanatics, being on the other side of the stage was a revelation | 19:49 |
LjL | urgh | 19:52 |
LjL | looks like the pastebin is down | 19:52 |
LjL | i get 502 bad gateway | 19:52 |
LjL | %title https://bpaste.net/62LA | 19:52 |
Brainstorm | LjL, the URL could not be loaded | 19:52 |
tinwhiskers | What's on the pastebin? | 19:52 |
tinwhiskers | *was | 19:53 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, a list of relevant links picked by me, including your site | 19:53 |
LjL | i probably have the last version before adding your site saved locally | 19:53 |
LjL | i guess no one reads the topic anyway | 19:53 |
tinwhiskers | Oh, right. The one in the/topic | 19:53 |
tinwhiskers | Lol | 19:53 |
LjL | contingo, did you read the "quarantined subreddit" post eventually? | 19:53 |
LjL | paste.ee is what i was using to begin with, i always use that, but apparently it's blocked by some networks | 19:55 |
LjL | for now it'll have to do | 19:55 |
LjL | at least posts there can last longer than a week | 19:55 |
LjL | now Brainstorm isn't posting Google News stuff repeatedly but it also isn't posting much of anything else | 19:58 |
tinwhiskers | dpaste.org is good | 19:58 |
tinwhiskers | Oh, you've already done it. Nice | 19:58 |
LjL | i'll post on both so i have an instant backup | 19:59 |
tinwhiskers | Good plan batman | 19:59 |
LjL | aside from my text editor which will invariably have unsaved stuff when my computer crashes you know | 19:59 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, ah well dpaste actually parses markdown and displays it as intended, which makes it different from paste.ee... since apparently i'm not turning that thing into a wiki like i originally intended, quick markdown is the next best thing probably | 20:01 |
tinwhiskers | Fair | 20:01 |
contingo | LjL post was deleted | 20:05 |
LjL | contingo, ah but you can't get away with that! https://dpaste.org/U9Qh | 20:06 |
LjL | it's just plain text though, original post may have had links and definitely had bold | 20:06 |
contingo | i'm gonna pass on reading that | 20:09 |
tinwhiskers | Links would be nice (bit tedious on a phone). | 20:09 |
contingo | the opening paragraphs try to establish premises that annoy me | 20:10 |
LjL | contingo, i didn't read it all because i was about to go to sleep and didn't want to get scared, but the gist is he's saying it's wrong to compare it to things like the Spanish flu even if they potentially looked scarier because the R0 and incubation periods (and i suppose maybe other things) make it more similar to the smallpox that killed 25%-50% of native american populations somewhere | 20:14 |
tinwhiskers | I thought that saying covid-19 compares best to smallpox several times was over-reacting since the mortality is vastly different | 20:15 |
tinwhiskers | But I agree that covid-19 is likely to become endemic and just another one of the coronaviruses that we collectively call the common cold (also along with the rhinoviruses). | 20:16 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, do we have any remotely solid figure on the mortality though? and the fact it seems almost clear no you can be reinfected... (but who knows with what frequency - damn, i just realized i wanted to click on a link that supposedly had a study on that, now it must be somehwere in my 100 browser tabs) | 20:17 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, well i think contingo would agree with THAT. but here he's dramatically saying it'll kill a good portion of us | 20:17 |
LjL | not sure if as a hoax, given the subreddit is supposedly devoted to hoaxes | 20:17 |
LjL | but it's a very long hoax with scientific terms so i kind of caught my interest | 20:18 |
tinwhiskers | Well the first few sweeps through the population will kill some people but after that it'll be fairly benign. | 20:18 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:03 UTC: Boris Johnson will not hold coronavirus crisis meeting until Monday: Prime minister criticised from all sides over delay in holding Cobra meeting and for lack of public appearances → https://is.gd/j4iT8d | 20:19 |
LjL | what is "some people" though? the only study (unpublished, not reviewed) i've seen that doesn't just give a stupidly derived number says 4.8% | 20:19 |
LjL | thanks Guardian i couldn't live without knowing that | 20:19 |
tinwhiskers | I'm being intentionally vague because I don't know that | 20:19 |
tinwhiskers | But probably around 2-3% | 20:20 |
tinwhiskers | Hitting old people much harder though | 20:20 |
contingo | also at least you can recover from a severe case of it and still look pretty on the outside | 20:20 |
tinwhiskers | And young people much less, but 2-3% on average. | 20:20 |
tinwhiskers | In the worst case with badly overloaded hospitals it could go 6-8% but that's still miles off the 30% of smallpox. | 20:23 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, 2-3% is still a lot when you consider the optimist (majority?) view though. that view says, it's 2% or 3% *in Wuhan/Hubei*, but everywhere else, including China, it's more like <1% | 20:24 |
LjL | but right now in Italy it's much higher than 1% | 20:24 |
LjL | but then they say, that's because of not having spotted patient zero so there are probably loads of asymptomatic cases or simply people not reporting | 20:24 |
LjL | but then contingo was feeling dubious about asymptomatic cases being so pervasive | 20:24 |
LjL | dubitant? | 20:24 |
tinwhiskers | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ | 20:25 |
tinwhiskers | I've heard arguments both ways about a lot or a few asymptomatic cases. | 20:26 |
tinwhiskers | But we know there are some at least | 20:26 |
LjL | some, sure | 20:26 |
LjL | there's some of anything | 20:26 |
tinwhiskers | :-) | 20:26 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:10 UTC: Ted Cruz tried to mock AOC's scientific knowledge – it didn't end well: The Texas senator tried to pick a fight after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called out Mike Pence’s coronavirus credentials → https://is.gd/SVyqxX | 20:31 |
LjL | okay i think i'm going to re-add google news and remove Guardian now | 20:34 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:33 UTC: Coronavirus: 20th case of Covid-19 in UK confirmed – latest updates: Boris Johnson says coronavirus is UK government’s top priority as more deaths and cases are reported around the world. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 20:43 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana at 20:00 UTC: MINISTERO DELL'INTERNO - DECRETO 28 febbraio 2020: Ulteriore differimento del termine per la deliberazione del bilanciodi previsione 2020/2022 degli enti locali dal 31 marzo 2020 al 30aprile 2020. (20A01352) → https://is.gd/Eby4ld | 21:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:21 UTC: Coronavirus: 20th case of Covid-19 in UK confirmed – latest updates: Boris Johnson says coronavirus is UK government’s top priority as more deaths and cases are reported around the world. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 21:32 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 20:46 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. In Italia 822 malati, si decide sulla riapertura delle scuole - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj | 21:57 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:53 UTC: Coronavirus: 20th case of Covid-19 in UK confirmed – latest updates: Boris Johnson says coronavirus is UK government’s top priority as more deaths and cases are reported around the world. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 22:09 |
LjL | contingo, a passage from the ACE2 hypothesis response | 22:33 |
LjL | " An unpublished observation by one of us (MP) is that people using Losartan or Telmisartan tablets as antihypertensives get lesser attacks of cold & flu like illnesses. Both these drugs also do not produce cough as the side effect so commonly seen with ACE inhibitors." | 22:33 |
LjL | this makes it sound like they think it's those two drugs specifically and others may be even counterproductive, or am i reading it wrong | 22:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:18 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 21 as UK confirms 20th case – live updates: Italian civil protection chief confirms 820 cases in the country while Boris Johnson says Covid-19 is UK government’s top priority. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 22:33 |
LjL | ugh 21, so the percentage is still going to be terrible | 22:34 |
LjL | %cases italy | 22:34 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 655 cases, 17 deaths (2.6% of cases), 45 recoveries as of 2020-02-27T23:23:02. | 22:34 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 27.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 22:34 |
LjL | i was going to make the list into markdown... | 22:34 |
contingo | LjL how are you interpreting that way? the letter is to advocate for ACE2 receptor blockers | 22:34 |
contingo | oh | 22:35 |
LjL | contingo, well i also don't understand why *other* flu/cold-like illnesses are relevant. do they all relate to ACE2 somehow? | 22:35 |
LjL | it otherwise seemed like a specific trait of this one | 22:36 |
contingo | some colds are caused by other coronaviruses, that might also bind to ACE receptors. Influenzas don't bind to ACE receptors but the metabolic systems ACE is involved in have some complicated role in affecting the severity of the illness, so blockers are still implicated somehow, i don't know the details | 22:41 |
contingo | the sentence about the cough is about side effects amongst ACE2 receptor blockers, does the one you're mom's on list cough as a side effect? | 22:42 |
LjL | contingo, yes, as "not common" | 22:46 |
LjL | or uncommon i guess | 22:46 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 21:36 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. In Italia 822 malati, si decide sulla riapertura delle scuole - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj | 22:46 |
LjL | up to 1% | 22:46 |
LjL | 822 -.- | 22:46 |
contingo | LjL sounds like Olmesartan is among the ACE blockers that are less likely to cause cough | 22:46 |
LjL | contingo, well, it's listed. anyway it's not a concern, she's been taking it for a long time - i just wonder why they mention it in that statement... do you think it's because people with COVID-19 already have a cough so ACE2 inhibitors that may cause it would be contraindicated as worsening it? or are they making some reasoning about the mechanisms involved | 22:47 |
theglass | hi contingo | 22:47 |
theglass | what's an ACE blocker? | 22:47 |
LjL | theglass, lol, i've no idea and i think contingo couldn't make me understand it even if he tried hard right now... wikipedia it up :P | 22:47 |
LjL | they're mainly medications acting against high blood pressure | 22:48 |
LjL | but the ACE2 receptors seem to be involved in COVID-19 | 22:48 |
theglass | uhm I know | 22:48 |
LjL | so these medications may interact with the disease | 22:48 |
LjL | in a good or a bad way, possibly, maybe | 22:48 |
LjL | the virus seems to bind to this receptor, the drugs inhibit this receptor (by binding to it? i'm not sure) | 22:49 |
theglass | ah ok | 22:49 |
LjL | contingo, i still have to find the prescription where she was given something else that she decided against starting. this thing is the one she was already taking. with any luck the new one might be one of those specifically proposed in the letter | 22:50 |
theglass | Iirc the Sartans are a whole class of substances | 22:51 |
contingo | I have to do some work sadly | 22:52 |
LjL | contingo, yes i'm sorry | 22:54 |
pwr22 | <LjL "contingo, well i also don't unde"> ACE inhibitors main side effect is a persistent dry cough. ACE receptor blockers are usually given if you get that side effect. I took ramipril and it gave me some persistent flu like symptoms so I had to change to candesartan | 23:08 |
pwr22 | <theglass "Iirc the Sartans are a whole cla"> Yup, ARBs | 23:11 |
LjL | pwr22, ah, so wait, may a key difference (for COVID purposes) be between inhibitors, and blockers? like in this case, inhibitors wouldn't help, but blockers would bind to ACE2, stopping the virus from doing that? (contingo also, but only when you're on a break) | 23:15 |
theglass | Yeah I was reading about them | 23:15 |
pwr22 | <LjL "pwr22, ah, so wait, may a key di"> Yeah potentially. ARBs tie up the ACE-2 receptors but ACE inhibitors work by preventing the conversion of ACE-1 to ACE-2 which would then bind those receptors but will not stop something else like the virus binding them | 23:19 |
theglass | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin_II_receptor_blocker | 23:21 |
theglass | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin_II_receptor_blocker#AT1_affinity_vs_AT2 | 23:22 |
LjL | so, for utter clarity (i have personal interest in this), Olmesartan would be an ARB, not an ACE inhibitor, and as such, it is *potentially* suited for blocking the virus from binding? | 23:22 |
theglass | is AT1/ACE1? | 23:22 |
LjL | right, also, 2 vs whatever else | 23:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 22:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, In Iran almeno 210 morti. Oms: "Rischio ora è molto alto" - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/odFrn7 | 23:35 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 22:44 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. In Italia 822 malati, si decide sulla riapertura delle scuole - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj | 23:47 |
theglass | seems so | 23:49 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:46 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 21 as UK confirms 20th case – live updates: Italian civil protection chief confirms 820 cases in the country while Boris Johnson says Covid-19 is UK government’s top priority. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS | 23:59 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!