libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2020-02-28

LjLcontingo, so much for "no exponential growth" really https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy/0/d52da948489fe757a16324951ea1aceff2807c71.png00:14
LjLi mean yeah it does look kinda linear before today00:15
LjLso let's change the criteria to make it linear again, eh?00:15
RougeRRhey00:16
RougeRRhows it goin?00:16
RougeRRthought you guys might be interested to hear, my cousin is in the Tenerife hotel00:16
contingojust use log-log00:16
RougeRRim also prepping a bit00:16
contingointeresting, what's his info from the inside? is it consistent with reports?00:17
RougeRRhes not too worried for himself, very hit and healthy. late 30s00:17
contingoI heard 50 had been released00:17
RougeRRemmm00:17
RougeRRhe says the staff are actually very good and doing the best they can00:17
RougeRRand agrees the containment is a joke internally00:18
RougeRRhes trying to avoid contact where possible00:18
RougeRRhes on his own, i feel for him. only went for 4 days00:18
RougeRRthe thing is, the containment is very inconsistent. staff seem to come/go. and those who arrived after a certain date can be released?00:19
RougeRRyet theyve all been mingling together00:19
RougeRRhe has been told that if any test positive that they could be further quarantined again, and if he comes back to UK he will quite likely face further 14 day quarantine. hes lucky he can afford to be off work00:20
RougeRRIm in a weird/unique situation too00:20
RougeRRI live in a small 5 mile island off the coast of france00:21
RougeRRour supply chain is very susceptible to disruption, lot of london air travel, elderly population and my dad is on immunosupressants00:21
contingoare you in the channel islands?00:22
contingothanks for all the info00:22
contingoRougeRR00:23
contingoI have family in Alderney00:23
RougeRRcontingo,00:23
RougeRRyes00:23
RougeRRim jersey00:23
contingofor some generations00:23
RougeRRahh cool00:23
RougeRRthats interesting00:23
contingoso they're even more isolated00:23
RougeRRyeah i originally moved here as a kid in 2001, but was living in uk for past 2 years00:24
contingoin fact my great aunt there is 10500:24
RougeRRcame back to see my folks and study a bit before deciding how to deal with the brexit mess00:24
RougeRRwow00:24
RougeRRthats pretty cool, and pretty old00:24
RougeRRalderny is actually the only channel island ive not been too00:24
LjLTenerife hotel is the one lock down because of my fellow citymen?00:25
RougeRRyeah00:25
RougeRRmy cousin lives london, got stuck there00:25
RougeRRlast few days i've started being a bit more 'worried'. I'm fairly rational and always looked at this rationally00:26
RougeRRim going to stock up at the supermarket tommorrow on tinned goods for a month or so, as well as basic meds for me and my dad00:26
LjLeventually everyone becomes like me when it gets bad enough00:26
LjLi'll content myself with that00:26
contingowell Jersey is the island out of all those to be stuck on, right XD00:26
RougeRRill quit my part time job if it hits the channel islands00:26
RougeRRhaha contingo yeah one of better ones00:27
RougeRRwe live rurally too(ish)00:27
RougeRRif the infection hits here, im going to just hunker down00:27
contingomy aunt too, remarkable she is still independent00:27
contingoI live in London zone 2, and I'm not sure what I'm doing yet00:28
contingoI have a lot of rice, lemsips, and flashlights00:28
RougeRRlimit social interaction. my parents are retired, im just working part time00:29
RougeRR2 secs brb00:29
LjLyou're in Jersey and you're able of limiting interaction, what the hell should i do here in Milan living with parents who seem to find it perfectly fine to keep going to supermarkets and pharmacies and GP offices repeatedly on a daily basis :(00:31
RougeRRcontingo, i dont think food is a big issue london00:32
LjLhe's got prepper genes i believe00:32
contingoi had the rice anyway00:32
RougeRRits okay, i mean nothing wrong with it :p00:33
contingoit's Italian actually00:33
LjLi'd rather have some more prepper genes currently00:33
RougeRRim only buying food here. because if the boats are cancelled. then 2-3 days later, the supermarket shelves are starting show gaps/.00:33
LjLcontingo, in that case, it's from *northern* Italy, because that's where our rice is produced00:33
LjLyou better hope the virus doesn't reproduce in rice cells!00:33
LjLwhich does seem to be a bit of a stretch00:34
RougeRRbut yeah, if you are healthy. you are likely to be fine00:34
RougeRRits the secondary and tertiary impacts00:34
RougeRRand  people like my dad or the elderly00:34
contingodo you still have a big cattle/dairy industry there?00:34
RougeRRaye yeah00:34
RougeRRlots of cows00:34
LjLmy parents... if even i manage to convince them they've been under-reacting so far, what does that achieve? make them panic?00:34
LjLmeh00:34
RougeRRour crops suffered this year so far. the rain waterlogged the fields00:35
RougeRRLjL, how old are they?00:35
LjL70 and 75, the latter a smoker00:35
contingothey might let you buy more cool medical gadgets00:35
LjLcontingo, that's... a decent point00:35
RougeRReh yeah id probably say they should limit social interaction00:35
RougeRRlike yes. the younger gen have to go to work00:35
RougeRRand keep going00:35
LjLi've tried, they get mad. maybe i've not tried mildly enough, but i get mad easily too.00:36
contingohopefully it doesn't come to people lassoing cows00:37
RougeRRi mean its not as bad if they avoid sick people and practice good hygine00:37
LjLRougeRR, yeah you'd figure they'd do that. tell the 75 year old smoker with a stubborn head00:37
RougeRRcontingo, if we have to slaughter the cows we are fuucked already ;)00:37
RougeRRLjL, aye i know the type00:37
RougeRRagain, i dont think we should all panic00:37
LjLi panic for much less, i'm actually being calm and rational, you should see me when i'm freaking out00:38
RougeRRi think limit movement where possible, practice good hygiene, buy 2-3 months long term food, basic medication supplies, long term meds for those who need00:38
RougeRRand try to limi social interaction for most vulnerable00:39
LjLcheck, check, check, check, check... "check" means "nope, gotta work on that", right? not a native speaker here00:39
RougeRRhehe00:39
RougeRRnot quite ;)00:39
LjLyeah, well, let's say my dad has *probably* been convinced to wash his hands by now. with soap. which is an important detail.00:40
LjLthat's something, but we're a bit late on the training00:40
RougeRRtbh ive only started being bettet last few days00:40
RougeRRlol i have a sniffle atm00:40
contingoI have an achey cold00:40
RougeRRfreaked out then realised, its a rare symptom lol00:40
LjLyeah i have no idea how to "avoid ever touching my face", maybe i could train myself to act like that, but not in a day00:40
RougeRRLjL, they say thats actually the biggest beneift of face masks lol00:41
LjLyeah00:41
RougeRRyeah i dont think face masks are worth having00:41
LjLexcept face masks are nowhere to be found, except the black market00:41
RougeRRid rather not buy them up00:41
RougeRRsave them for healthcare pros00:41
RougeRRits not airboune00:41
LjLwe had three, i tried one the other day, was an ugh experience00:41
contingomy aunt did quite a lot of research into Alderney cows, a breed that was dispersed during WWII, apparently they had even higher fat content milk than Jersey00:41
LjLwe don't know it's not airborne tbh00:42
RougeRRcontingo, mmm dat fat00:42
RougeRRLjL, pretty sure00:42
LjLi believe that's one thing that's sometimes being said without really any evidence it's true00:42
RougeRRlook at the size00:42
contingomust've been amazing00:42
RougeRRof the molecules00:42
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 23:34 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Dow Jones suffers biggest-ever points fall, Australian market plummets: US share index tumbles 1,190 points, the Netherlands confirms its first case and 50 Britons are allowed to leave Tenerife hotel. Follow the latest news [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/r0BZhN00:42
RougeRRits going to stay on surfaces for few hours tops00:42
LjLto be fair contingo asked me about the size of the virus about ten times00:42
LjLand i didn't look it up still00:42
contingoI didn't00:42
LjLokay, once00:42
LjLwe exaggerate here00:42
LjLwe actually have 65 sick, not 65000:42
RougeRRwhats the crack in in italy then00:43
RougeRRworse than they say?00:43
LjLthe "crack in"?00:43
RougeRRwe will know true fatality rates when it gets outside of china a bit more. but also given mildest cases often wont report. those wont count to stats00:43
RougeRRLjL, the story00:43
LjLare you asking what the situation's like or what's the crack like00:43
RougeRRsorry brittish idiom00:43
RougeRRyeah00:44
RougeRRwhats the sit00:44
contingoI just mentioned it to raise the point, even if you know the size of the individual virions, you still have to find out the agglomeration properties and other factors to model how it disperses00:44
LjLwell i'm not in a quarantined area, that must not be fun00:44
RougeRRLjL, mmm i imagine00:44
LjLbut in milan, it's... we're tense, and supermarkets have to keep restocking fast00:44
RougeRRare people freaking out or?00:44
LjLi'm freaking out, not sure i count as people00:44
RougeRRpanic buying?00:44
LjLyes00:44
RougeRRhmmm00:44
RougeRRlol okay yeah im defo stocking up00:44
LjLbut then you go outside, and everything seems fairly normal, people smiling in the park00:44
RougeRRwe have a 2-3 days supply chain00:44
LjLbut those are kind of self-selecting00:45
LjLyou don't see the ones who are not smiling and not in the park00:45
RougeRRand storms will fuck us and have been last 4 weeks00:45
LjLi took the metro, it wasn't empty as flaunted, but it was decidedly less crowded than usual00:45
LjL(that's when i wore the mask)00:45
RougeRRyeah00:45
RougeRRmetro worst place to be00:45
LjLof the few people that remained, i'd say 25% had a mask, 25% covered their mouths/noses with a scarf, and the remaining 50% didn't seem to care00:45
LjLbut that's a 50% of a much smaller number than normal metro takers, so...00:46
RougeRRcovering your mouth is for others tbh more so00:46
RougeRRand masks00:46
contingothe coronavirus patient who reported to the hospital walking distance from me got an Uber there, so00:46
LjLRougeRR, i was encouraged to take the metro when i heard from other people that it was practically empty on monday. everyone else who took it on tuesday must have thought the same.00:46
RougeRRmmm00:46
RougeRRwahh00:46
RougeRRim not smoking weed any more. cant get it here. or id stock up on that00:46
contingoand then I think PHE said the driver was not a contact of interest, the ride was too short00:46
LjLwe're a bit of a walking joke sometimes00:46
RougeRRbut im guna stock up on booze00:46
RougeRRthis island has one of the highest alcohol consumption rates in europe00:47
RougeRRthese fuckers would drink the place dry in a week00:47
RougeRRi work 8 hours a week in a bar, work software normally00:47
contingoI have quite interesting stocks of things because I have unusual amounts of storage space for a little zone 2 flat00:48
RougeRRbut yeah, we could easily isolate. both parents dont work. i can just quit on spot with no issues. and we have loads of fields next tous00:48
RougeRRto walk and get outside in00:48
RougeRRwe have a boat to if shit really hit the fan00:48
RougeRRand a camper00:48
RougeRRbut weather aint that bad00:48
RougeRRweather is bad*00:49
RougeRRcontingo, mmm i can imagine00:49
tinwhiskersHere's a time-series graph for by country I put together for anyone interested: http://offloop.net/covid19/00:49
RougeRRthats the key tbh. in china they are not running out of food. its "luxuries"00:49
contingodo you have munitions XD00:49
LjLtinwhiskers, that's good thanks00:50
RougeRRtinwhiskers, nice00:50
LjLi'll add it to the topic list00:50
RougeRRanything i can do. im a backend dev00:50
RougeRRbeen thinking of a corona project00:50
tinwhiskersI just couldn't find anything that did this on a per-country basis, so thought I'd do something. The other stuff I want is already available on other web sites00:50
LjLi mean, that's bad really, for me, but good for... knowing00:50
contingonice tinwhiskers00:51
LjLtinwhiskers, yeah i also hadn't found anything that would let me compare countries sensibly without squeezing them all to the bottom with china roaring up00:51
RougeRRtinwhiskers, what do you use for graphing?00:51
RougeRRtinwhiskers, i had thought of setting up some kind of self-reported thing00:51
RougeRRbut be very difficult00:51
tinwhiskersThis is using flot. It has a few issues00:51
contingoLjL did you delve any more into the ACE2 receptor blockers availability in Italy00:52
RougeRRthe UK is a bit fucked00:52
RougeRRtories cut healthcare to the bone00:52
RougeRRNHS is under winter strain00:52
tinwhiskersFrance and Germany look like they've lost a grip now00:52
RougeRRnot heard anything on france?00:52
LjLcontingo, eh not really, it's all prescription for sure, so what can i do, you know i'm not leaning towards visiting the darker sides of the web for that00:52
RougeRRagain, its the secondary effects00:52
LjLtinwhiskers, they'll blame it all on us ;(00:52
tinwhiskersesp. if you include the latest data with the checkbox below the graph00:52
contingomy fam is enquiring in the far east00:53
RougeRRwe all have relatives and some us might have health issues00:53
tinwhiskersKuwait is screwed too00:53
RougeRRbut the big issues is how this affects society and economy and supply chain00:53
tinwhiskersbut then... it's kuwait, so...00:53
LjLtinwhiskers, any clue where to programmatively get the "interim" data? because the bot also suffers from very late updates00:53
RougeRRtinwhiskers, france seems ok so far00:53
RougeRRmy parents are meant to go over there in 2weeks see my aunt n uncle00:53
tinwhiskersI'm scraping it but didn't mention the source because of copyright worries :-/00:53
RougeRRthey will decide then00:53
LjLtinwhiskers, ah :(00:54
RougeRRthey are going by ferry/campervan00:54
RougeRRso as it goes. they are better than most00:54
RougeRRmy brother is up in french alps00:54
RougeRRlol00:54
RougeRRother cousins in cardiff n scotland00:54
RougeRRwe spread out00:54
tinwhiskersRougeRR: according to the latest data France is not looking ok to my eye00:54
LjLtinwhiskers, you'd figure this stuff would all be made freely available in such a messy situation... and also, that countries wouldn't all rely on JHU for their data (maybe they don't, but they sure do at our civil protection HQ unless that's all theater)00:54
RougeRRi was in bristol00:54
RougeRRtinwhiskers, aye. but what makes you say so00:54
RougeRRim not disagreeing00:55
tinwhiskersI mean the total is not high but the rate is alarming00:55
LjLtinwhiskers, to be fair though, any increase from flatline can look like the start of a progression00:55
RougeRRi just havnt seen much, i should know.00:55
LjLand then just be... a couple more cases00:55
RougeRRim only 14 miles from france, i can see it from my window lol!00:55
LjLwe'll see tomorrow i guess00:55
tinwhiskersheh00:55
RougeRRhttps://www.thelocal.fr/20200227/latest-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-in-france-including-man-recently-returned-from-italy00:55
RougeRRyeah i see what you mean00:56
RougeRRtinwhiskers, im based on a small island00:56
tinwhiskersme too!00:56
RougeRRah cool00:56
RougeRRwhere bouts if you dont mind me asking00:56
tinwhiskersmy island has a population of 600:56
tinwhiskersit's in Tonga00:56
RougeRRlol tinwhiskers00:57
RougeRR6?00:57
RougeRRya pretty safe00:57
RougeRRmines 100k00:57
RougeRR9miles x 5miles00:57
tinwhiskerswell, it's not very big :-/00:57
LjLhe's lying, but it's not his fault, it's the fever00:57
tinwhiskers25 acres in total00:57
RougeRR6...00:57
RougeRRtinwhiskers, is there anyone doing graphing00:57
RougeRRof reports by area00:57
tinwhiskersthat link I posted does the regions as well00:58
RougeRRah ty00:58
tinwhiskersoh, area as in km^2?00:58
RougeRRlol i also asked my cousin if he can receive post00:58
RougeRRhes in that tenerife hotel if you didnt see00:59
RougeRRi feel bad for him, but he will be fine00:59
tinwhiskersNo, I didn't00:59
RougeRRim thinking of sending him a care package of food, books etc...but also an "enjoy your holiday!" card and a pandemic board game00:59
tinwhiskersReally if you're under 45 you're very unlikely to die. The high death rate is biased due to old people being extremely susceptible01:00
RougeRRyeah01:00
RougeRRhes very fit and 3901:00
RougeRRhe said its okay there01:00
RougeRRbut the containment is a joke01:00
RougeRReveryone mingles with each other, nothing is logical because they all mingle yet some get released based on date arrived01:00
tinwhiskersthe containment is just about impossible with that incubation period01:00
RougeRRstaff can go/come if they have masks01:01
RougeRRtinwhiskers, agreed01:01
tinwhiskersheh01:01
contingois he using the pool?01:01
RougeRRim just saying its inconsistant01:01
RougeRRnah01:01
tinwhiskersah, right01:01
RougeRRhes staying clear where he can01:01
RougeRRlike if any of them test positive they will extend quarantine01:01
RougeRRand he might get quarantined again in uk01:01
LjLtinwhiskers, the containment should have a goal of slowing down to the extent of allowing the healthcare system and other core things to operate01:01
LjLit's obvious it can't be "stopped"01:02
RougeRRyes01:02
tinwhiskersright. fair01:02
RougeRRif we can stagger the growth01:02
RougeRRand get to april/may01:02
LjLbut now Italy seems to be going the dangerous route of appeasing the public's "meh, we aren't containing this anyway, may as well relax the quarantine"01:02
RougeRRthe strain from other seasonal illness will be less01:02
tinwhiskerswell, it's summer here for me, so may it not something to look forward to for those of us in the southern hemisphere01:02
RougeRRand it stands more chance of dying off a bit01:02
RougeRRtinwhiskers, mmm01:03
RougeRRbut your winter01:03
RougeRRis as cold as our summer often01:03
RougeRRlol01:03
RougeRRsurely australia should be a good metric to see how it copes in warmer weather?01:03
wwinfo[m]<tinwhiskers "the containment is just about im"> put everyone into 1-person nice room, with bathroom, and sterilized food delivered at the start lasting 45 days, ez01:04
contingothe whole of the UK only has 15 beds currently available for artificial lung treatment, apparently01:04
LjLRougeRR, that thing too about dying off a bit... MERS stays the same or gets kinda worse, so isn't it a bit just wishful thinking? the flu gets better, but this isnät the flu01:04
LjLcontingo, you really want to make me buy oxygen01:04
RougeRRwwinfo[m], ?01:04
RougeRRLjL, potentially01:04
RougeRRbut we wont have other winter strain to compete with01:04
contingothat would be your last bet if you had end stage pneumonia with acute respiratory failure that an O2 supply to your lungs couldn't address01:04
RougeRRand people are less likely to be in close proximity inside01:04
RougeRRcontingo, yeah im a bit worried for my dad as he is on immunosupressants for colitus01:05
LjLRougeRR, fair about other winter bugs01:05
RougeRRwe will isolate if it hits the island01:05
RougeRRthats the plan for nwo01:05
RougeRRnow01:05
LjLcontingo, yes, not much of a bet i guess, since i doubt lung transplants would be forecoming...?01:05
LjLforthcoming01:05
RougeRRno chance01:06
LjLmaybe i should prep01:06
tinwhiskersDoes anyone know someone who has had the virus yet?01:06
RougeRRother than my cousin possibly01:06
RougeRRno01:06
LjLi don't01:06
RougeRRim currently chugging red wine to get my immune system up (/s)01:06
tinwhiskersheh01:06
wwinfo[m]"Italy has now relaxed its testing criteria: contacts linked to confirmed cases or recent travelers to outbreak areas will not be tested anymore, unless they show symptoms. [source] See: comparison with other countries. "01:07
LjLi've done an experiment to see if limoncello is a viable treatment01:07
wwinfo[m]are they insane?01:07
LjLwwinfo[m], it may actually be worse than that01:07
RougeRRLjL, i think we have to just keep going through different alcohol01:07
RougeRRif we dont try01:07
RougeRRwe dont know01:07
LjLwwinfo[m], but to be fair, THAT relaxation is being mandated by the european center for disease blah blah01:08
wwinfo[m]geat, maybe all incompetent nations will half-die. Oh Darwin.01:08
RougeRRwwinfo[m], they probably cant test01:08
LjLthe rest, if they really do it... is not01:08
LjLwwinfo[m], will you kindly shut the fuck up with that sort of cynicism?01:08
LjLif you want me to die, do it in your own channel01:08
LjLokay?01:08
contingoLjL it's a treatment while your lungs don't work at all, one can recover to breathe independently from that stage, albeit with a high chance of quite fucked lungs01:08
RougeRRim interested in hpow the stats say travel bans wont help01:08
tinwhiskersThis may well help the superannuation budgets for many countries since quite a few old people will probably die :-/01:08
wwinfo[m]if I would be the king, I would quarantine everyone suspected of being in contact with suspected cases, plus everyone ingoing to country. 40 days, 1-person room with bathroom, food supply included01:08
tinwhiskers(pension, that is)01:08
RougeRRbut i dont understand how restricting non essential travel wont01:08
RougeRRespecially for the UK01:09
RougeRRor for me in jersey01:09
LjLcontingo, The Dow Jones index of leading US shares has suffered its biggest points fall in history amid the coronavirus crisis, closing down 1,190.95 in New York.01:09
tinwhiskersexcellent01:10
contingoyes01:10
contingoI'm gonna ask my mate also in Jersey what's afoot round his01:10
tinwhiskersI was just thinking of getting into some stocks01:10
RougeRRcontingo, nothing yet01:10
RougeRRlol01:10
RougeRRpeople think its overblown01:10
RougeRRor they over react01:10
RougeRRnot much middle ground01:10
contingomy commodities index fund thing still isn't doing spectacularly01:10
tinwhiskersthere's a storm a-comin'01:10
RougeRRidk if i should quit my pub job01:10
RougeRRi dont need it01:10
RougeRRi only do 8 hours a week01:11
RougeRRim not worried about myself, just infecting my dad01:11
RougeRRbecause other than that, its easy to limit contact01:11
RougeRRi wonder if b&q will have mashs here01:11
RougeRRmasks01:11
RougeRRon the bright side, the tory party are all old as fuck01:12
tinwhiskerslol01:12
contingosource a robot hand and you can serve drinks remotely01:12
RougeRRand boris is pretty overweight. got my fingers crossed01:12
wwinfo[m]"Israel’s Ministry of Health is mandating a 14-day quarantine for all travelers who have visited Italy in the past 14 days. "01:12
RougeRRcontingo, ill likely get some goves n make use of alcohol soap01:12
wwinfo[m]as usuall, Jews are the only group that takes care about themselves and doesn't give a flying F. what everyone else think about it01:12
RougeRRwwinfo[m], its the economy issue mate01:13
RougeRRif you isolate them all, then ALL the parents will have too01:13
LjLalso i should do that on Matrix i guess01:13
RougeRRand then you begin crippling the economy01:13
RougeRRin the UK SSP is £95 a week01:13
RougeRRits a balancing act01:14
LjLgood thing Riot.im doesn't start as usual01:14
RougeRRyeh01:14
RougeRRbut yeah a non-essential travel ban01:14
RougeRRi dont understand why that wouldnt help01:14
RougeRRthey say it would cause illegal access01:14
contingothat's one thing I'm annoyed at running out of I can't easily restock, my pure ethanol01:14
RougeRRand the experts say it doesnt work01:14
tinwhiskersIn any decent sized country this is not going to be over quickly. isolation may not be practical and in fact may just prolong things.01:14
RougeRRtinwhiskers, thats what they say01:15
LjLtinwhiskers, but prolonging thing is good if less of the population is sick at the same time01:15
RougeRR^01:15
RougeRRthis is the worst time for it to hit europe01:15
tinwhiskersAnd it seems people can be infected a second time, so it may come through in waves.01:15
RougeRRhold off 2 more months01:15
RougeRRi am curius if they would ever release a vaccine on a condensed less tested time scale01:15
tinwhiskersthat will be interesting to see for sure.01:16
RougeRRyeah, i think it depends on the vaccine type01:16
LjLtinwhiskers, there is no hard evidence of second infections i believe01:16
LjLit appears it *may* be possible, or, people just both test positive and then negative and then positive01:16
LjLwhich isn't a stretch given this test has given inconsistent results before01:16
tinwhiskersmaybe01:16
RougeRRtinwhiskers, vaccine for flu is like 1 type is weakened virus (cant be taken by immunosupressed), other is antibodies or some shit01:17
RougeRRthe first is oral, 2nd is injection01:17
RougeRRiirc01:17
RougeRRi might be wrong01:17
tinwhiskersI was reading something about a protective mechanism in the lungs that doesn't last long01:17
RougeRRLjL, or they get release early yeah01:17
LjLi mean, it's possible they get infected twice01:17
RougeRRi read about RUMOURs on infertility in men (mild)01:17
LjLbut i see way too much jumping at conclusions in this whole matter01:17
RougeRRglad idgaf, i had a vasectomy at 2101:17
LjLwhen the perhaps sad reality is that the answer to most questions is "we don't know yet"01:18
RougeRRLjL, yep01:18
tinwhiskersyes, too early to say. *may* is still interesting though.01:18
RougeRRas i said01:18
RougeRRif its in your area: stock up on basic supplies, isolate vulnerable, avoid non-essential gatherings and travel01:18
LjLyes, it is, as long as it's stated as such, and i just seem to see the "mays" turning into "will" quickly at this game of chinese whispers01:18
RougeRRif you can work from home do01:18
RougeRRif not and you arnt exposing the at risk01:19
RougeRRkeep working01:19
tinwhiskersLjL: yes, fair01:19
RougeRRi feel that what ive said is most sensible01:19
RougeRRon the bright side, at least china took the brunt01:19
RougeRRsort of....01:19
LjLRougeRR, i was sighing for myself01:19
tinwhiskerserm, well it's a bit early to say that too01:19
RougeRRall of our supply chains are reliant on them01:19
RougeRRtinwhiskers, true01:20
contingothis is potentially just the beginning, that's why you're prepping01:20
contingoand quitting the pub01:20
tinwhiskersAnother two weeks and we'll know a LOT more01:20
RougeRRi think ill probably quit the pub work if we get confirmed cases on island01:20
RougeRRwe are isolated here somewhat01:20
RougeRRim still considering it01:21
tinwhiskersyeah, that would be wise. A pub would nt be a good place to be01:21
RougeRRill be upping my hygene measure01:21
RougeRRits a quiet village pub01:21
tinwhiskersI'm sure the pub would close if you get cases anyway, wouldn't it?01:21
RougeRRtinwhiskers, ehhhh01:21
RougeRRyoud think so01:21
tinwhiskersheh01:21
RougeRRbut people here are stubborn01:21
contingoyeah there's no definitive evidence for reinfection yet, at best though there's an extended period of post-symptom viral shedding / infectivity that isn't caught by some clearance tests, in some hopefully small fraction of cases01:21
RougeRRgovernment is dumb01:21
RougeRRwe have independant government01:21
RougeRRnot under direct UK juristiction01:22
RougeRRthey couldn't organize a fucking piss up in a brewery01:22
LjLcontingo, encouraging01:22
contingo(extended to an unusual and concerning duration)01:22
LjLeven more encouraging01:22
RougeRRas i said. if you are healthy. you will likely be okay01:22
contingoI'm just being transparent01:22
RougeRRits sick or elderly relatives01:22
LjLfair01:22
LjLyes, i know.01:22
RougeRRor at risk from other meds01:22
LjLquite01:23
RougeRRim on medication, i cant get it in bulk01:23
tinwhiskersRight now I has a minor case of pneumonia and have been on antibiotics for a couple of days.01:23
RougeRRbut i wont die if i dont get it01:23
RougeRRill just feel a bit shit and have withdrawals01:23
tinwhiskershopefully I'll be over that before covid arrives here (unless it already has)01:23
LjLRougeRR, not you will freak out and have panic attacks and end up in an ER where you'll catch the virus worse?01:24
RougeRRLjL, nah01:24
LjLgo you then01:24
RougeRRim on vyanese (lisdexampfetamine)01:24
tinwhiskerswe did have lunch with a person who just returned from Italy a few days before I got ill, but I've not heard of anyone else getting ill01:24
RougeRRill get mild to moderate withdrawals for a few weeks n be cranky01:24
LjLthose are just random letters01:24
RougeRRLjL, its like slow-release adderall01:24
LjLoh01:24
RougeRRive been on anti-depressant before01:24
LjLwait can you explain that again?01:24
LjLi missed the first part01:24
RougeRRand gone cold turky off them01:24
RougeRRLjL, i cant get them in bulk01:25
contingowhat if catching it now would provide you with immunity from a much more lethal mutated strain next winter? (not a question to be answered, just my what ifs leaking out)01:25
RougeRRone month at a time shipped from uk01:25
LjLno i know01:25
LjLi was being silly01:25
RougeRRhaha01:25
RougeRRsorry01:25
RougeRRbut yeah ill just be cranky01:25
RougeRRmy dad is on essential meds01:25
RougeRRbut he can get longer term supplies01:25
tinwhiskerscontingo: yeah, I've wondered that. There's also a case for getting it early before hospital services become overloaded.01:25
RougeRRits unlikely to mutate they think01:25
RougeRR*unlikely*01:26
RougeRRand if it does01:26
LjLcontingo, but then there is also the "what if" the second time is worse. yeah i know, it's a rumor and it's likely baseless, but so was reinfection until recently...01:26
tinwhiskersit's unlike to mutate *as fast as the common cold*01:26
contingotinwhiskers yeah, LjL and I have mulled that one over a fair bit01:26
RougeRRtinwhiskers, or flyu01:26
RougeRRflu01:26
tinwhiskersyeah01:26
RougeRRwana know th real worry LjL01:26
RougeRReven if it doesnt mutate (assume it wont)01:26
RougeRRthe vaccine timeline is over a year01:26
LjLtinwhiskers, contingo, right but this time you pretty much said "it's possible it's not possible to be reinfected, but let's be real, it's happening"01:26
RougeRRwe will have another year of this if it becomes endemic01:27
RougeRRanother winter01:27
LjLRougeRR, well hopefully then it *does* mutate, to a milder variant...01:27
RougeRRaye01:27
RougeRRLjL, i mean01:27
RougeRRlol its kind of funky01:27
RougeRRif it got MUCH worse01:27
RougeRRthat would kinda be better01:27
LjLbut, for sure, i don't think i can live with more than a year of... this01:27
RougeRRit would die out01:27
RougeRRright?01:27
RougeRRb01:27
LjLRougeRR, that's why it won't happen01:28
RougeRRLjL, my advice is to avoid media a bit01:28
LjLthere's already a strain that's not that stupid!01:28
LjLso that one will live on01:28
RougeRRits not good for your mental health01:28
RougeRRlimit it to once a day01:28
RougeRRnothing will change that quick01:28
RougeRRdo what you can01:28
RougeRRprep in a reasonabkle way01:28
LjLRougeRR, my parents are at risk, we are not following the very advice you just repeatedly gave, i am conscious that puts them at even more risk. another close relative is on immunosuppressant. i don't want to explain my situation in the exact detail, and why we're not following advice, but... yeah01:29
contingoit already has mutated in terms of there being de novo genetic diversity amongst samples since the initial transmission event (the ultimate patient zero), but the mutations aren't correlated with any new traits in terms of the epidemiology01:29
contingoso far as we know at this point01:29
RougeRRLjL, i understand that01:29
RougeRRyeah01:29
RougeRRits stressful01:29
RougeRRdont take my word as bible though01:29
RougeRRi might be overreacting01:29
LjLRougeRR, you just said things i already thought were necessary01:29
RougeRRim still making my mind up01:29
RougeRRi know01:29
LjLbut that i can't convince my parents of, without making a stressful situation worse01:29
tinwhiskersAlthough I'm no conspiracy nutter, I think the data we're seeing come from China is a load of bullshit. I don't think they have a handle on it like their data shows.01:29
RougeRRim just saying, im just an anxious man on the internet01:29
contingois there a physical withdrawal syndrome with vyanese?01:29
RougeRRtinwhiskers, im unsure either way01:30
LjLtinwhiskers, why not? when they were full-on exponential, they showed it01:30
RougeRRi dont think they have a handle on it01:30
LjLwhy lie now01:30
RougeRRbut i also think there could be lots of infected with minimal symptoms01:30
LjLRougeRR, and that's a double edged sword01:30
RougeRRwhich could mean a lower death rate01:30
RougeRRofc01:30
LjLbut higher infection rate01:30
tinwhiskersI'm not sure, but maybe because they saw the harm that was happening and decided a little less truth might be beneficial01:30
RougeRRtinwhiskers, i agree01:30
tinwhiskers*economic harm01:30
RougeRRimpossible to tell though01:30
RougeRRas i said01:30
RougeRRfor all in this channel01:30
LjLtinwhiskers, sounds like italy rn01:31
RougeRRmental health is important, do what you can. but dont panic01:31
tinwhiskerswell, if you look at the regional time-series data for china it looks far too perfect to me.01:31
RougeRRgo to work if you can01:31
contingowider scale community testing in korea and singapore tend not to support the view there's a large population of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers01:31
contingobut that's just there01:31
RougeRRtinwhisk01:31
tinwhiskers(not including hubei of course)01:31
contingoother countries (USA) have done a fraction of the testing01:31
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 00:17 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US stocks suffer biggest one-day fall, Australian market dives: Ireland and Netherlands report first cases as US officials monitor thousands getting off domestic flights for symptoms. Follow live news — from The Guardian at 00:17: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/f3p9hS01:31
LjLtinwhiskers, well i've got to give you that you've probably looked at it most than more people since most people didn't make that site01:31
RougeRRtbf one advantage of a totalitarianesq state is control of population01:31
LjLBrainstorm, stop saying that, i got it the... second time01:31
LjLcontingo, what about the testing in italy?01:32
LjLwe're allegedly testing a lot01:32
RougeRRcan we all hope that some good comes of this01:32
RougeRRand trump dies01:32
RougeRRslowly01:32
LjLfor now, anyway, maybe that'll all change tomorrow01:32
RougeRRfrom ncov01:32
RougeRRand we offer him ebola vaccine01:32
contingoncovfefe01:32
RougeRRLOL01:33
LjLRougeRR, well, an ebola drug kinda works...01:33
RougeRRreally lol01:33
LjLnot the vaccine, though01:33
LjLi don't think anyway, let me check again01:33
RougeRRi see this01:34
RougeRRhttps://www.theverge.com/2020/2/26/21154220/coronavirus-experimental-treatment-remdesivir-trials-us-china-ebola01:34
LjLRougeRR, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Management second paragraph for the ebola, then i'm linking to the whole thing because it mentions other potentially effective things01:35
RougeRRseems promising01:35
RougeRRi see it01:35
LjLwell yeah01:35
LjLi think some of those things have been used in italy already, so if any of us gets it... maybe we'll have a chance at useful treatment01:36
LjLbut if it actually does work very well (that, or the HIV ones), how soon before nobody has any left?01:36
RougeRRholy fuck01:37
RougeRRThe incubation period ranges from 1 to 14 days with an estimated median incubation period of 5 to 6 days according to the World Health Organization.[32][33] A study found rare cases where the incubation period was as long as 27 days.[34][35]01:37
RougeRRmedian 6 days01:37
RougeRRmax 27!01:37
LjLRougeRR, people are mad enough about the 14 days, there have been rumors about extending it to 21 days in italy (they've died down, i'm afraid there's a bit of a u-turn on everything from the government now :\) but if you tell people they have to stay in quarantine for longer than a months you'll find them all in tenerife01:38
RougeRRLjL, its not that they are mad01:38
LjLcontingo, you see me doing that S thing?01:38
RougeRRits that they cannot afford it01:38
RougeRRthey wont be paid01:38
RougeRRrent will be due01:38
RougeRRthey have bills to pay01:38
RougeRRsick pay wont be available to many, and even those who can often wont be eligbe long term quarantine01:39
LjLRougeRR, yes, okay, i'm not pointing fingers at anyone anyway. i live in an individualistic society, i am an individualism, i'll flee to your island if can and i think that saves me, tbqh01:39
RougeRRi know01:39
RougeRRits okay01:39
LjL> i am an individualism01:39
LjLlol01:39
RougeRRim just saying this is partly why01:39
RougeRRi saw coronvirus warnings in the tax office today suprisingly01:40
RougeRRidk what it will be like somewhere like here01:40
LjLwe have tv things that tell you to wash your hands, that's about it01:40
RougeRRsmall island, they could quarantine whole place01:40
RougeRRshut down airport and ships01:40
RougeRRidk if they would01:40
LjLyou should do that now01:40
RougeRR" we are prepared "01:41
LjLas cases in italy started soaring, at first the government assured everyone that we were NOT closing the borders, because some wanted to01:41
RougeRRLjL, yeah its true that it doesnt work long term01:41
LjLand i was like01:41
LjLwut01:41
RougeRRand in places with land borders01:41
RougeRRbut small island like this with limit resources01:41
RougeRRlimiting non-essential travel would work01:41
RougeRRjust keep the goods coming in01:41
LjLRougeRR, that's what i'm saying, do it yourselves, now, before you have cases01:42
LjLnot that you are the government01:42
RougeRRyeah i know01:42
LjLbut you are a bigger part of your government than i am of mine, numerically speaking :P01:42
RougeRRand yeah alas we dont have acoice01:42
RougeRRgovernement here is corrupt and useless01:42
RougeRRi do agree in europe and uk stopping travel wont work and its already here internally01:42
RougeRRbut in jersey, we could01:43
LjLjust the funny thing is that people were discussing whether *we* should close the borders. obviously if anything, the other countries would be01:43
RougeRRwe have a big eledely population too01:43
LjLi guess the first day or two, people (including politicians) weren't quite... getting it01:43
RougeRRLjL, its not worth doing in europe01:43
RougeRRending schengen would mean that people just take illegal ways round borders anyway01:44
LjLeither way, if we're the ones with a huge cluster of cases, we should be discussing other things, not whether to close borders01:44
RougeRRits better to treat mainland europe as one country01:44
RougeRRand contain per town/coty01:44
RougeRRUK could do it01:44
RougeRRpotentially01:44
LjLRougeRR, treating the EU as one country, what a novel concept, someone should have thought about that01:44
LjLa novel concept01:44
LjLan nCon...01:44
LjLand also half an acyclovir because i can feeeeel the stress01:45
RougeRRkeke01:46
RougeRRi should sleep01:46
RougeRRi should also order another few months minoxodil01:47
contingomy Jersey buddy isn't replying on whatsapp01:47
RougeRRnothing worse than going bald AND ill01:47
RougeRRgot finasteride for 3 months01:47
contingoso maybe that end of town is fallen already01:47
LjLdang it01:47
contingolol01:47
RougeRRcontingo, which jersey01:47
RougeRRmine lol01:48
contingoRougeRR that stuff really worked for me01:48
RougeRRcontingo, finasteride works to stop loss generally01:48
RougeRRminox is hit n miss01:48
contingoyours yes01:48
RougeRRahh we dont even have towns really01:48
RougeRRits also 1am here01:48
RougeRRthere is one large town01:48
RougeRRand smaller villages01:48
RougeRRwhole place is 9x5miles01:48
contingoI've just used minox, only had minor thinning but it's reversed. Read up on finasteride and felt wary01:48
contingoyes, I know XD01:49
contingoso you've not been to Alderney?01:49
LjLi read up, felt wary, read up more, wanted to try a weird combination of things, read up more, never touched any of it01:49
RougeRRyeah fin can have side effects01:49
RougeRRbut its rare01:49
RougeRRfin will stop hair loss though01:49
RougeRRminox regrows but rairly stops01:49
RougeRRcontingo, never no. buy dad has sailed there. my mum flew once01:49
RougeRRbeen to all the other islands by plane or boat01:50
RougeRRterrible weather though01:50
contingomy aunt's place has a ruined German fortress offshore, accessible at some low tides, would make a really uncomfortable hideaway I guess01:50
RougeRRyeah we have lots of those01:50
RougeRRwe have a big house here mind01:51
RougeRRand fields next to us01:51
RougeRRif one of us 3 got ill and somehow others didnt01:51
RougeRRwe could isolate with 1 floor each lol!01:51
contingoare the fields paddocks? or a crop01:51
RougeRRnothing in them currently01:51
RougeRRsometimes cows, sometimes potatoe crops01:51
RougeRRwe have a small estate opposite us now01:51
RougeRRand a few houses down the road01:52
contingomy family place... pile... is up in northamptonshire01:52
contingoI really don't want to retreat to there01:52
RougeRRfucking estate, this place was so quiet. they fucking put 30 houses in opposite us01:52
RougeRRi hate real estate developers01:52
RougeRRup north01:52
RougeRRi dont blame ya!01:52
RougeRRyou said you are in london though?01:53
contingooh same with ours, we had an unbroken view of field and spinneys to the horizon01:53
contingobut then they put an entire new build village right in the middle of the view01:53
RougeRRyeah it sucks01:53
RougeRRthis luckilyu didnt spoil our view01:53
contingoLondon yeah01:53
RougeRRcontingo,01:54
RougeRRill be safe01:54
RougeRR;)01:54
RougeRRhttps://www.jerseytravel.com/images/hotels/mont-orgueil-castle/mont-orgueil-castle-02.jpg01:54
RougeRRgot a castle in line of sight01:54
contingonice01:55
contingocould you put me up in the cowshed01:55
RougeRRaye, german bunkers on top01:55
RougeRRaye, we'll have to isolate ya first01:55
RougeRR;)01:55
contingolol01:56
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 00:47 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: First case Nigeria — from The Guardian at 00:47: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/j9E0C901:56
contingodo those Aurigny trislanders fly to Jersey too01:56
contingothat's how I get to Alderney01:56
RougeRRyeah01:56
RougeRRor blue island01:56
contingocosy lil aircraft01:57
RougeRRbetter off alderny id think01:57
RougeRRif you got supplies01:57
RougeRRi should sleep01:57
RougeRRno point worrying01:57
contingome too01:58
contingokeep us posted01:58
RougeRRwill do :)02:00
RougeRRwill see what my cousin comes back with02:00
RougeRRthis make sit seem like jersey would shut down a bit02:00
RougeRRhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-latest-updates-who-mission-director-warns-world-is-simply-not-ready02:00
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 00:54 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US stocks suffer biggest one-day fall, Australian market dives: Ireland and Netherlands report first cases as US officials monitor thousands getting off domestic flights for symptoms. Follow live news — from The Guardian at 00:54: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/f3p9hS02:08
BrainstormLjL: Do as you wish!02:11
LjLRougeRR, if we're so not ready and this virus decimates us and kills the economy maybe that's going to be good for the planet02:12
LjLthat's one possible viewpoint at least02:12
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 01:15 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 318 new cases and 41 new deaths in Hubei province — from The Guardian at 01:15: Covid-19: what we know and do not know about the coronavirus → https://is.gd/SvGqfr02:20
LjLthat's not useful news stormer02:33
LjLi'm looking at https://offloop.net/covid19/ with both china and south korea turned off02:41
LjLdoesn't it kinda seem that apart from some slight oddities like vietnam which seems remarkably able to contain it (?), and various countries that are basically stable, Japan is the only "worrisome" country that's actually managing to make that thing look linear02:41
LjLi mean, they were flat, then they spiked, but it doesn't look exponential like korea and italy sort of do02:42
LjLand iran went like blam02:42
tinwhiskersKuwait looks a bit dodgy but the numbers are still very low so it doesn't mean much yet02:53
contingoi shall have a look tomorrow02:54
contingorest and revivify02:54
tinwhiskersIf you clear everything and turn on France and Germany, and also check the "Include latest non-authoritative data" checkbox I'd say there is some concern for those two, but again, the numbers are low.02:54
LjLtinwhiskers, but being real, france and germany are going to spike02:55
LjLregardless of the graphs02:56
tinwhiskershow do you mean?02:56
LjLtinwhiskers, open borders with italy, the fact that there is no particular reason for italy to have spiked alone in the middle of central europe02:56
tinwhiskersoh. right. yeah02:56
tinwhiskersIt looks like that might be beginning is all02:57
LjLtinwhiskers, though if i include the non-auth data it just looks a little weird02:58
tinwhiskersoh. does it?02:58
LjLtinwhiskers, well... France is just the same as without, and Germany is very mildly spiking compared to yesterday?02:58
LjLmaybe the unofficial have become official since you last checked?02:59
tinwhiskersOh. I see. I was looking at old data.02:59
tinwhiskersYes, new official data now.02:59
LjLso yeah they're spiking02:59
LjLwe have a really cruel saying in italian02:59
tinwhiskersYes, no use in turning that on now02:59
LjL%tr <it Mal comune, mezzo gaudio.02:59
BrainstormLjL, Italian to English: Two in distress make sorrow less. (MateCat) — Badly common, half joy. (Google) — *Mal Common, half *gaudio. (Apertium)02:59
tinwhiskers:-)03:00
LjLBrainstorm, thanks i didn't know that english one03:00
LjLit's literally shared harm, half joy03:00
LjLbut really the shared harm was already there, at least when we're all equally visibly exponential, i won't feel like i'm in the middle of plaguetown03:01
tinwhiskersheh.03:02
tinwhiskersAnother week will be very telling03:02
LjLyeah, how do i make suicide pills just in case?03:03
LjLand this is a note for the mental health services: i'm just kidding03:03
tinwhiskersexit bag ftw03:04
LjLdoesn't that require somewhat prominent bottles of gas03:05
LjLokay actually i should be sticking to the "i'm kidding"03:05
tinwhiskerswell, one bottle of gas. You might have one of those for party balloons or a mig/tig wielder.03:06
tinwhiskersyes... I'm just kidding...03:06
LjL[the other, i assume] "room is based on facts IMO (the other room run by some kike LjL is about feelings). as for "white male" I state this for medical purposes (in case if I, like, kick the bucket xd) LjL"03:08
tinwhiskerslol03:08
tinwhiskerswhat is the other "room"?03:08
LjLtinwhiskers, it's on Matrix, so "room" is actually the proper term03:09
tinwhiskersoh. ok03:09
LjL*this* channel is bridged with Matrix03:09
tinwhiskersoohhhh03:09
LjL%tell contingo: "Oh, and by the way, over r/wuhan_flu, a biologist claims that comparing wuhan flu to native americans vs smallpox is a better comparison, with similar R0 and incubation periods, that ended up killing 25-50% of people."03:09
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around.03:09
LjLtinwhiskers, that person was basically sounding happy if people died because their governments acted badly, and you might see how that potentially rubs me the wrong way. but i restrained myself. then he got Jews into the pot, and i felt entitled to op up03:10
tinwhiskersI didn't think you were being too unreasonable.03:12
tinwhiskersyou could have given them a little more rope I guess03:12
LjLtinwhiskers, they had been a bit like that before you joined too03:13
LjLi think03:13
LjL%tell contingo: which i assume is https://np.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/comments/faklo2/biologist_here_covid19_is_much_worse_than_the/ although i see that subreddit is probably(?) meant as a joke, but this post might not be03:14
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around.03:14
tinwhiskersAh, I see03:14
LjLtinwhiskers, anyway him just going ahead and calling me a "kike" in the other room honestly gives me enough feedback to feel okay with my decision03:14
LjLi am not sure whether i should read that reddit post without someone competent holding my hand03:16
LjLand when i am not sure about this sort of potentially panic inducing things, it usually means "no"03:16
LjLand i usually do it anyway03:16
tinwhiskersI chose "No Thank You"03:16
LjLtinwhiskers, but really that post looks serious. if you just didn't want to see hoaxes, you may choose to rethink that. if you just don't want to get scared, you may want to not rethink it.03:18
LjLi'm going to save it and read it tomorrow when i'm not about to go to bed03:18
LjLsleepless night would make my immunes bad03:18
LjLwell, worse03:19
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 02:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australian doctors warn of overwhelmed public health system in event of coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/N4vzjz03:27
LjL"I guess the silver lining is that these things if natural tend to be eugenic assuming it doesn't just kill everyone" can i underline again how my decision appears to be the correct one tinwhiskers?03:33
tinwhiskersheh03:33
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 02:33 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US stocks suffer biggest one-day fall, Australian market dives: Ireland and Netherlands report first cases as US officials monitor thousands getting off domestic flights for symptoms. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS03:40
LjL%tr Bollettino coronavirus, dati discrepanti. Angelo Borrelli conteggia 528 casi positivi. Secondo Walter Ricciardi i casi sono solo 282 e così replica: "Un errore fare i tamponi agli asintomatici, si considerano positivi solo i test accertati dall'ISS".03:47
BrainstormLjL, Italian to English: Coronavirus bulletin, discrepant data. Angelo Borrelli counts 528 positive cases. According to Walter Ricciardi there are only 282 cases and he replies: "It is a mistake to swab asymptomatics, only the tests ascertained by the ISS are considered positive". (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?]03:47
LjLGuardian *could* stop posting that with an updated timestamp...03:47
LjL%tell contingo: So, this is what we'll get with the new way of counting, apparently: "Coronavirus bulletin, discrepant data. Angelo Borrelli counts 528 positive cases. According to Walter Ricciardi there are only 282 cases and he replies: "It is a mistake to swab asymptomatics, only the tests ascertained by the ISS are considered positive"." (GT)03:48
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around.03:48
LjLtotal cheating03:49
LjLof course they won't suddenly bring it down to 282 because that would be "suspicious203:49
LjLthey'll just start counting differently from now on03:49
LjLand magically, we'll have a tapering03:49
LjLdisconnected from reality03:49
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 02:47 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: first case detected in sub-Saharan Africa as stock market dives again → https://is.gd/f3p9hS04:04
pwr22<LjL "[the other, i assume] "room is b"> Not a nice thing to post 😟. I'm glad they did though because it prompted me to find this room / channel05:11
pwr22I'm here from the land of matrix, sunshine and rainbows 🙂05:12
pwr22The other room has become increasingly 4chan esque recently - I can't say I'm a fan05:12
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 05:30 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus found in sub-Saharan Africa as WHO says spread could 'get out of control' → https://is.gd/bLP6FU06:44
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 05:31 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: first case detected in New Zealand as stock markets fall further → https://is.gd/f3p9hS06:57
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 05:53 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case → https://is.gd/f3p9hS07:09
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:00 UTC: World Bank's $500m coronavirus push 'too late' for poor countries, experts say: Bank accused of ‘waiting for people to die’ as bonds designed to provide fast funding for pandemics are censured as ‘obscene’ → https://is.gd/6i0cB108:10
Tobi[m]Do we want to set this world wide overview statistic as room widget? https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd09:21
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 08:21 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS09:32
AlbrightTobi[m]: That seems to be poorly made. It only works in Chrome.09:36
Tobi[m]hm... I'm using Safari, working well09:37
tinwhiskersworks ok in firefox for me09:39
AlbrightHuh. Both Firefox and Safari are stuck on the bouncing blue bars on my end.09:40
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 08:40 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: FTSE tumbles as world stock markets are hit by global spread of disease – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS09:51
AlbrightBuying opportunity. I wish I could afford to invest.09:52
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 09:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Msc Meraviglia sbarcata in Messico. Contagi al minimo in Cina. British Airways cancella altri voli per l'Italia - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/odFrn710:10
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 09:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: FTSE tumbles as world stock markets are hit by global spread of disease – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS10:22
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 09:35 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, primi casi di contagio in Nigeria, Olanda e Bielorussia - Rai News → https://is.gd/4U56NL10:48
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 09:45 UTC: What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?: What are the symptoms caused by the virus from Wuhan in China, how does it spread, and should you call a doctor? → https://is.gd/8MiqWh10:54
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 09:57 UTC: Switzerland: Swiss government bans large events on back of coronavirus crisis → https://is.gd/oNf8Hr11:06
RougeRRmorning campers11:23
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:19 UTC: Newcastle ban handshakes at training ground over coronavirus fears: Players and staff usually shake hands in morning ritual ‘We’ve stopped that on the advice of the doctor,’ says Steve Bruce Newcastle have introduced a training-ground handshake ban in an attempt to guard against the spread of the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/9XFLdE11:25
AlbrightMornin'11:26
RougeRRhey11:26
RougeRRim off today to get supplies11:26
AlbrightThe Swiss government banning large events… I'd hope that our first amendment (which guarantees right of assembly) would prevent that. But our constitution is constantly violated to the point that it barely exists anymore, so who knows.11:27
RougeRRAlbright, is it a bad idea?11:28
RougeRRusually health trumps other rights11:28
AlbrightRougeRR: That's literally the government doing things "for your own good." IMO personal civil rights need to trump everything.11:29
RougeRRAlbright, im not sure where i stand on that11:29
RougeRRbut i respect your opinion to disagree either way11:29
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 10:23 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, primi casi di contagio in Nigeria, Olanda e Bielorussia - Rai News → https://is.gd/4U56NL11:32
RougeRRsomewhat concerning11:36
RougeRRhttps://nypost.com/2020/02/28/dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-low-level-of-coronavirus/11:36
RougeRRearly days11:36
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: first case in Wales as two further cases in England take UK total to 19 – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS11:38
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:00 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: 'It's no worse than the flu': busting the coronavirus myths → https://is.gd/NdHgAj12:09
RougeRRhand sanitizer has run out here12:27
RougeRRguna DIY it12:27
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 11:22 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, annullato il Salone dell'auto di Ginevra. Contagi in Nigeria e in Europa, legati all'Italia - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj12:28
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 11:26 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, i contagiati aumentano in Europa - Corriere della Sera → https://is.gd/fBajDh12:35
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: first case in Wales as two further cases in England take UK total to 19 – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS12:41
BrainstormNew from Google News at 11:49 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj12:54
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:54 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus cases rise 46% as fears of global crisis grow → https://is.gd/MS3iwM13:00
BrainstormNew from Google News at 11:56 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Nigeria confirms first coronavirus case: All the latest updates Al Jazeera English Nigeria [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj13:06
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 12:09 UTC: Coronavirus: Boris Johnson to hold Cobra meeting as UK cases rise to 19 – latest updates: First case in Wales; Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania also report first cases as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS13:19
BrainstormNew from Google News at 12:22 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 disease reaches 52 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj13:25
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 12:36 UTC: Coronavirus: Boris Johnson to hold Cobra meeting as UK cases rise to 19 – latest updates: First case in Wales; Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania also report first cases as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS13:50
LjL%tell contingo: I suspect this doesn't say anything we didn't already know, but just in case it does... It's about virus viability on surfaces https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463/13:56
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around.13:56
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 12:53 UTC: Coronavirus: Cobra meeting to be held on Monday as UK cases rise to 19 – latest updates: First case in Wales; Nigeria, New Zealand and Lithuania also report first cases as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS14:03
BrainstormNew from Google News at 13:11 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 now in more than 50 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News: Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 now in more than 50 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa CBS News Coronavirus: world stock markets in freefall as Nigeria records first case – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zM8eQj14:16
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 13:29 UTC: Coronavirus: British man on Diamond Princess cruise ship dies, Japanese media report – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus, local media report, as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS14:34
BrainstormNew from Google News at 13:50 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise becomes first Briton to die from illness – latest updates - The Guardian → https://is.gd/CtQxHY14:53
AlbrightInteresting article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak15:03
AlbrightOf course Wikipedia itself is often a misinformation vector, but…15:03
LjLless so than most15:07
LjLand often just because stupid newspapers cause circular references15:07
AlbrightObligatory relevant XKCD link: https://xkcd.com/978/15:12
AlbrightThough I'd argue that false or biased news articles can be the origin of misinformation just as much as Wikipedia itself. There's a bad habit of treating "published" articles as legitimate sources regardless of the truthfulness of them.15:14
LjLAlbright, yes, but wikipedia does have intricate, somewhat long, but often productive processes of weeding out even seemingly okay sources15:19
LjLit has to be taken as a work in progress, always, but that's never hidden15:19
LjLnothing is perfect, but it's hard enough to find things that are *decent*15:21
BrainstormNew from Google News at 14:31 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise becomes first Briton to die from illness – latest updates - The Guardian → https://is.gd/CtQxHY15:34
LjL%cases italy15:44
BrainstormLjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 655 cases, 17 deaths (2.6% of cases), 45 recoveries as of 2020-02-27T23:23:02.15:44
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 27.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries).15:44
LjLat least we also have recoveries now...15:44
LjLexcept the cases will artifically "taper off" if the malice i'm seeing is actually enacted15:44
pwr22%cases japan15:50
Brainstormpwr22: In all areas, Japan, there are 214 cases, 4 deaths (1.9% of cases), 22 recoveries as of 2020-02-27T23:33:02.15:50
Brainstormpwr22: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 15.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries).15:50
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 14:49 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, l'andamento del contagio nel mondo - Rai News → https://is.gd/SvZXxl15:58
LjLpwr22, i say this when i see new people using the bot, do look at the timestamp, because unfortunately my data can't be very up to date. if you want the latest data, the topic has a few links to maps/graphs16:00
LjLoh you're on matrix so you see the wrong topic16:00
LjLthere16:01
pwr22Thanks16:02
pwr22I have a friend in Japan ATM16:02
LjLso do i, although priorities command that i'm freaking out about myself first :(16:03
sneepI have myself in Japan ATM16:04
LjLyou're all money16:04
LjLyou're in ATMs16:04
pwr22😆16:05
pwr22Does anyone know of a tracker that actually displays well on mobile?16:05
pwr22Most I've found don't work well16:05
sneepget a real computer16:05
pwr22😜16:06
LjLpwr22, hmm i have only tried JHU's on mobile and indeed it worked badly16:06
LjLso i don't have an answer right now16:07
LjLbut i'll make a sublist for mobile-friendly ones when i can, seems like a good idea16:07
pwr22Awesome, I'll let you know if I find any16:08
pwr22https://youtu.be/YX0H3O_Uiec16:08
pwr22WHO press conference live16:08
sneephttps://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 does this display okay on mobile?16:08
sneepi think i opened this on my phone once16:08
sneepbut don't remember how much it sucked16:08
pwr22Not good in portrait16:10
pwr22None of these things seem to use responsive frameworks 😭16:10
pwr22It's almost sort of passable in landscape16:10
LjLyeah it's barely usable in landscape16:11
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 15:00 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise becomes first Briton to die from illness – latest updates → https://is.gd/f3p9hS16:11
LjLpwr22, they haven't started talking yet or is my audio bad16:11
pwr22Same here16:12
AlbrightYeah, they're not talking yet.16:12
LjLin general if you have links that you feel are important and not already in the pastebin in the topic, please do suggest16:13
AlbrightStock market is crapping out again.16:21
AlbrightWHO meeting is starting.16:22
BrainstormNew from Google News at 15:12 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: COVID-19 now in more than 50 countries, including 1st in sub-Saharan Africa - CBS News → https://is.gd/zM8eQj16:23
LjLit is subtitled this time thankfully16:24
LjLi understand the director general but i don't understand pretty much anybody else16:25
LjLthey expect early results from "therapeutics" in a few weeks16:27
LjLno reason right now to think the virus acts differently in different climates16:34
LjLcontainment proper, to stop the virus, is still recommended, even though we see it usually doesn't succeed in containing, but does reduce the impact; mitigation strategies to reduce the impact should also be employed, but we should not accept containment is just not a viable option16:36
pwr22<Albright "Stock market is crapping out aga"> I just bought some S&P 500 😭16:36
AlbrightCCTV reporter trying to get the WHO to say the virus isn't from China…?16:36
LjL(i am summarizing what i hear in the press conference, i'm not stating my own ideas)16:36
Albrightpwr22: If you can' buy more.16:36
Albrights/'/,16:36
BrainstormAlbright meant to say: pwr22: If you can, buy more.16:36
pwr22☺️16:37
LjLso far no hard evidence of the virus in Wuhan animals, so we still need to find the intermediate hosts and understand the very earliest cases16:38
LjLdiseases can arise anywhere and be a global phenomenon so we should not ascribe blame to specific geographies16:38
LjL(said before) if you're over 60 you may want to take additional steps to keep away from potentially sick people, as you are at higher risk16:40
LjLsomething about the UAE that i missed16:45
LjLForbes asks: in terms of the continued spread and growth, how much is it a pandemic vs an epidemic16:46
LjLa pandemic means believing everyone one the planet will eventually get infected. if it were influenza they'd have called it a pandemic. but instead it's being shown the course can be significantly stopped or altered. declaring a pandemic is unhelpful since we're still trying to contain it. pandemic may seem descriptive, but if you accept it's a pandemic, you accept, as said above, you're giving up containment and only doing mitigation16:47
LjLthey want to move beyond colloquial terms, they don't current accept based on the data that everyone will be infected, and China has shown it can be avoided16:47
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 15:40 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS16:48
contingoLjL a bit of ebay hilarity for you before I delve: https://bpaste.net/PK3A16:48
LjLif we don't prepare properly though, it could definitely become a pandemic16:48
LjLcontingo, weird stories are generally a hallmark of needing to block and ignore16:49
LjLagain this is just r/ebay general opinion16:49
contingoI think I'll just send him some free coins16:49
LjLas to protective equipment, the primary concern is frontline health workers are protected, so when they talk about PPE they're talking only about specialized material needed. it's inappropriate for that material to be used by the general public. the countries where many people are wearing surgical masks, the WHO has been clear in the past, it doesn't protect YOU. the most important things to do is the usual hygiene measures that keep being mentioned16:50
LjLalthough they are not criticizing people wearing masks, but they stress NOT having a mask doesn't reasonably increase your chances of catching it16:51
LjLthey're disappointed they can't guarantee PPE for all health workers and are working with governments to change that16:51
AlbrightWonder what exactly "weakly positive" means16:51
LjLin HK there was a dog that tested *weakly* positive for COVID-19 so they are working with HK authorities to understand the results16:51
LjLAlbright, :\16:51
LjLthey want to understand whether potentially dogs can contaminate surfaces16:51
LjLshe wants them to explain when they think WHO would say "containment isn't working, let's do mitigation" because it's a huge tasks to try to block every transmission16:52
LjLanswer: there's always a tradeoff. we've had the same issue with Ebola: "they're no point in containment and contact tracing now". it's a rational question to ask and a decision to be made collectively16:53
LjLbut countries that have focused on containment have achieved much, and that's clear16:53
LjLplus, containment is at least slowing the virus16:53
LjLeven in "sophisticated" countries there have been rapid raise of cases16:53
LjLsome places are just not ready16:53
LjLso containment is also an attempt to slow down the virus16:54
LjL(so is it really mitigation? this is my own question)16:54
LjL(they're playing with words a lot aren't they)16:54
LjLpeople need to take a reality check now: they need to understand we maybe need to stop asking ourselves semantic questions, and instead, it's time to act16:54
LjL(i agree!)16:55
LjLwe do have examples where containment *has* worked, it's important to remember we've seen very positive trends in China, which has been incredibly aggressive with management16:55
LjLalso look at Singapore, they are now seeing a rapid decline in cases16:55
LjLsee also Nepal and Vietname, they are all examples of countries being successful in containment16:55
LjLthe earlier we act and how robustly will determ whether you'll be dealing with clusters, or hundreds or thousands16:56
LjL(good thing she didn't mention Italy :\)16:56
LjLthere are now 46 countries with cases. 8 of them have not reported for the last 2 weeks, so exclude them. 23 of the remaining only reported 1 case. others less than 10 cases. how can you tell these countries "abandon containment"?16:56
LjLso it's not one size fits all. it varies by country16:57
LjLif you abandon containment you're undermining something you can do when containment is possible16:57
LjLwe don't need an either/or dichotomy, we need to trigger all strategies: aggressive containment while preparing for every other eventuality16:57
LjLit'd be a BIG mistake16:57
LjLoutside China, we're still talking about an extremely tiny part of the population infected16:58
LjLwhy would we suggest to surrender there?16:58
LjLbut he's not saying this disease is not serious! it's serious and dangerous but there is still a narrowing window of opportunity where all strategies can still work16:58
pwr22UK seems to have been able to trace and contain all the cases that have popped up here too16:59
pwr22I'm actually impressed by it16:59
LjLpwr22, though Italy seemed the same, with 3 cases for a long time, then boom16:59
LjLbottom line: don't abandon the "blended" comprehensive approach, and use containment in every country17:00
LjLthey increased the global risk from HIGH to VERY HIGH though, because the situation is very serious17:00
LjLjust a couple of minutes left17:00
LjLfinancial times asks: what practical implications (if any) raising the level from HIGH to VERY HIGH globally has? you mentioned it a couple of times but didn't say if it makes any practical difference or it's just a symbolic statement. what should people do in reaction?17:01
LjLanswer: it doesn't make a legal difference in how each state behaves, but they hope it's consistent with the risks being rising, and more countries being involved and struggling with containment17:02
LjLit's also an internal process to present the epidemiologic level, which is not explained to management, instead they just tell them about it the same way they are telling us now17:02
LjL(great!)17:03
LjLthe process is so we don't become complacent with ourselves17:03
LjLthe window of opportunity is closing, so that's why the risk assessment changes17:03
LjLReuters: Nigeria is one important case. what is your assessment in their capacity to detect and isolate? are you working with them?17:04
LjLyes, there has been a confirmed case there. a doctor of theirs joined them to discuss, and he's now back in Nigeria with information on what to do17:04
LjLNigeria CDC has been established, and the country has fought measles, cholera etc17:05
LjLthey have already done things requiring identification and isolation, they have already tested the mechanisms for that17:05
LjLthey invested in labs in Nigeria which can now convert from diagnosing say influenza, to diagnosing this17:06
LjLthe country does have many vulnerable people though esp. in the north but the disease is a single importation for now, confirmed and isolated quickly17:06
LjLthe fundamentals of response: identification, diagnosis, it applies everywhere on the planet, so the Nigerian doctor who was in China has certainly learned many lessons on how to deal with it17:08
LjLquestion: going back to the VERY HIGH level declaration: is that the highest possible level? you don't officially use the word "pandemic"? what about people reclared "recovered" and then they have the virus?17:08
LjL*** does it give immunity?17:08
LjLyes, this is the highest level in terms of spread and impact17:09
LjLbut it's not to scare or alarm. it's to get countries to understand that it's in their control to contain17:09
LjLto governments: "wake up, get ready, this virus may be on its way and you need to be ready"17:09
LjL"we can avoid the worst of it but the level of concern is at its highest"17:09
LjLyes, we have had case reports of individuals who have recovered, tested neg, but then gone on to test positive17:10
LjLthis requires further study17:10
LjLdoes testing positive actually mean they are shedding virus?17:10
LjLthey do not know this yet17:10
LjLcontingo, ı17:10
LjLthey(?) are following people prospectively for days or weeks to see what the profile actually looks like. but the fact so many people have recovered is a positive fact. but they do need to follow those individuals17:11
LjLwith regards to immunity17:11
LjLthere are serological essays being developed17:11
LjLwhat scientists are doing is looking at antibody response in people who have had it, to see if there are neutralizing antibodies17:11
LjLas we have more and more recoveries, we'll have more evidence to give an answer on that17:11
contingoone sec17:11
LjLcontingo, i'm just markinng these lines to you17:12
LjLlast question, from canada: what expectation does the WHO in drug supply disruption because of the situation in China?17:12
LjLthey do believe with the decreasing incidents in China, many companies who produce needed thigns are opening again, and everything is going back to running again17:13
LjLmany people around the world rely on them for medicines17:13
LjLthey hope those industries in China in particular who are producing these particular products come back online asap17:13
LjL---17:13
contingook17:17
LjLcontingo, i think i went from summarizing the salient point to basically transcribing17:17
LjLat least that means i get better with english17:17
LjLbut those lines about reinfections17:17
LjLperhaps the rest is not so important17:17
LjLthey just say it's pretty damned bad, but don't want to call it a pandemic or that'd be giving up17:18
LjLthey gave a number of positive examples of countries succeding, basically everyone but Italy17:18
contingothe subreddit you linked is now quarantined (haha) for being a suspected hoax community17:19
contingodid they highlight singapore when it comes to countries succeeding?17:20
LjLcontingo, it already was like that yesterday, i think the sub *is* mostly to lighten up, but that particular post... please read it17:21
LjLcontingo, yes they did17:21
LjL20<LjL>30 we do have examples where containment *has* worked, it's important to remember we've seen very positive trends in China, which has been incredibly aggressive with management17:22
LjL20<LjL>30 also look at Singapore, they are now seeing a rapid decline in cases17:22
LjL20<LjL>30 see also Nepal and Vietname, they are all examples of countries being successful in containment17:22
contingotalking about weakly positive results, idk the technicalities here, but I've done various PCR tests for various things in labs and ended up with some fluorescing band in a gel where you or a machine is like, hmm is this band really there or is it an anomaly / contaminant  / random brightness fluctuation17:24
BrainstormNew from Google News at 16:14 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Coronavirus risk upgraded to "very high" by World Health Organization as death toll mounts - CBS News → https://is.gd/zM8eQj17:25
contingoI think with Singapore, they're a centre of global trade and travel so you'd expect containment to be very hard, but not only do they have good preparedness, containment measures, excellent infrastructure to do contact tracking, extremely highly obedient population, willingness to do above-and-beyond community testing17:26
LjLcontingo, well i assume they can readily test the same dog again17:27
contingothey're also tropical island, lots of bright sunlight, hot and humid, "fresh air" effect (see: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029470-700-fresh-air-and-sunshine-the-forgotten-antibiotics/ )17:27
LjLcontingo, yes okay fly me to Singapore and then bribe people to keep me from being sent into the dungeons17:27
LjLit's counterintuitive to me that humid is good, but i've heard it before17:28
contingobribing people will get you thrown in dungeons in Singapore17:28
contingoit's the rare example of a single-party state with low corruption index17:28
LjLcontingo, oh lord is that the experiment that was done in the US and the UK with supposedly harmless bacteria which may have actually harmed a ton of people?17:29
LjLcontingo, okay then don't bribe them *in order to* keep me good, should be even easier17:29
contingooh sorry, paywall17:29
LjLyep17:30
LjLso spoilers, does the open air effect exist and do we know what it's actually caused by17:30
LjLalso, let's say fresh air and sunshine is effective, what's the balance between getting fresh air and sunshine while at the same time that means you expose yourself to people17:32
contingoyes it does, and it's partly attributed to free hydroxyl radicals17:33
contingowell if the weather is sunny and warm and breezy then people are tending not to huddle together at the margins of buildings, under canopies, in the vicinity of outdoor heating (patio infrareds are very common here)17:34
contingoor in/under the tiny shelters they provide at outdoor train and tube stations here17:37
contingopeople are more dispersed17:37
contingoit's really down to that17:37
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 16:25 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS17:37
contingoand that people leave their windows open and providing someone isn't coughing virus through the window, the effect prevails17:37
contingoit must be very difficult to model in detail17:38
LjLcontingo, then i guess i should have a walk outside right now, though, my mom fell asleep from... i hope just exhaustion17:38
contingoyou can find some recent papers on it w.r.t. hospital airflow and design17:38
LjL"just". it's dangerous too17:38
LjLthe WHO director specifically said that >60yo should, to paraphrase, stay the hell at home17:38
LjLbut my parents are doing all the opposite17:38
contingoif not sunny and warm the less the effect I think17:39
LjLcontingo, it's sunny and warm for... this time of the year17:39
LjLand milan17:39
LjLso i guess not very sunny or warm, but sorta17:39
contingoit's horrible here17:40
LjLcontingo, https://www.milanocam.it/   https://www.milanocam.it/ParcoVergani/ is basically where i live17:40
LjLthese are realtime17:40
LjLalso i probably shouldn't be saying where i live in detail in a public channel17:40
LjLcontingo, https://www.milanocam.it/CityLife_1/ has a lot of sunshine17:40
LjLlol17:40
LjLhttps://www.milanocam.it/ParcoSempione_1/ has mountains in the background, a rare sight17:41
LjLhumidity is VERY low...17:41
LjLhow does one even have 13% humidity17:41
contingowe had a little peek of sun yesterday afternoon and I couldn't remember when I last saw it17:41
LjLcontingo, it says 30% on my weather station indoors, should i start the humidifer17:42
LjLand if i do should i enable the ion thing17:42
LjLi never know whether that's any use at all17:42
LjLall i know is lots of red stuff develops inside the humidifers17:42
LjLhumidifier17:42
LjLand is hard to clean17:42
LjLlooks like humidity fell drastically from 60% to 20% in the span of an hour during early morning17:43
contingohumidifiers are generally bacteria incubators unless you become a devoted humidifier technician17:43
contingoLjL, you have done all prepping on the basis you'll still have reliable electricity and water supplies, as they do in Wuhan, right?17:46
LjLcontingo, yes but considering we've done basically no prepping...17:46
LjLcontingo, yeah, that's kind of what i thought about humidifiers :\ but then again this is no bacterium17:46
contingoI thought your parents were spending days going from supermarket to supermarket17:46
LjLcontingo, well, they do that all the time, they've probably done it more than usual... more in terms of "going events" than actual important stuff they've bought17:47
LjLlike i mean, today my dad went to get fixed shoes17:47
LjLthey do a lot of things that seem unnecessary17:47
contingowhat are you missing in terms of basic prep?17:47
LjLcontingo, my parents staying at home and trying to avoid getting infected, mainly. we have "sort of" enough medicines and food for a few days... we have disinfectants... we don't have face masks but you know how that is17:48
LjLbut really, we are about as prepared as ever. we always have a ton of medicines and a ton of food17:48
LjLbut that's probably not the "ton" preppers mean17:49
LjLand my sister probably goes outside too, i bet17:49
contingobut  just food for a few days?17:49
LjLcontingo, i'm afraid so, not months17:49
LjLcontingo, i don't think they have focused on durable food either17:49
LjLi just can't get them to do anything unusual really17:49
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 16:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, morto un britannico: era sulla Diamond Princess. Oms: "Rischio ora è molto alto" - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/odFrn717:49
LjLcontingo, now when my mom was asleep, my dad came home, i *looked* at my mom, said nothing, and he muttered "leave her alone"17:50
LjLso i can't even look worried at a sleeping person without being hushed17:50
contingodo you have a remaining eBay budget for antique gadgets and batteries you could instead devote to a bag of rice or pasta17:50
contingolarge bags17:51
LjLcontingo, i guess. the problem is always if i buy things and that creates distress with my family. like the oxygen thing. do you really think it's likely to become that bad? and electricity and water and stuff eventually failing also?17:52
contingoalso tinned goods, vitamins17:52
LjLi know you don't want me to panic but i also need to adjust my reaction to... somewhere between my parents' "doing nothing special", and whatever is required in a harsh case17:53
LjLi am in a position where i don't generally decide anything about how things are run17:54
LjLbut i could override that, with frictions and yelling, if required17:54
LjLi.e. i could order stuff online17:54
LjLi can't stop them from going outside i'm afraid17:54
contingoI have no idea! I just have this stuff as a matter of course.  if I'm prepping I'm prepping and if I'm not, I'm not. I don't have the situation of dependency where my decisions are controlled by others and I feel responsible for the decisions of others. If the virus situation does eventually resolve then lessons about that situation are what I would take time to address17:56
contingoI have no idea! <- if things are likely to become that bad17:57
pwr22LjL: thanks for transcribing all of that and your English is great!18:00
LjLpwr22, i ended up understanding more than i thought i would18:00
LjLcontingo, well you see from my point of view, preppers are some "extreme" people. they may well be the ones who survive, but they don't represent the norm. does that matter? it does to my parents, because if i tell them "contingo told me to stock up on meds", maybe they'll say "yeah, fair, i'm going to get a prescription". if i tell them "contingo told me to stock up on meds and buy flashlights for when the power grid fails" they'll say "your friend is 18:02
LjLcrazy"18:02
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 16:46 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS18:02
LjLso you see my conundrum, i need to... do just the right amount to avoid the reaction being counterproductive18:02
LjLmy goal is staying alive and my family also staying alive and well, for an otherwise expected amount of time...18:03
LjLsounds simple18:03
contingoit's not really that I"m telling you or anyone to do anything. What I say is more like, if one were to decide to prepare for some set of circumstances, then here is the list of things that should be covered and should be considered18:10
contingoif someone comes to me and says, I want to prepare to the level that we have no electricity for months and the water supply becomes unreliable / unsafe, then I don't make a value judgment, I can just give a list of helpful things18:12
LjLcontingo, well i guess you as most people don't want the responsibility of "telling me what to do" and then it turns out it's the wrong thing. but, IRL, i talk to my dad, he just sighs at me... i talk to my mom, she's only able to respond in monosyllables... i won't even attempt to talk to my sister, haven't in years... we're all going crazy here, but i'm possibly the only one who can steer things in a "not just doing the usual things" direction - but it's 18:13
LjLincredibly hard to figure out what to do18:13
LjLhypochondriacs get sick too, and they are also sometimes right, is what i feel and my parents seemingly don't18:14
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 17:03 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. A Lodi emergenza ricoveri. Primi due casi in Umbria - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj18:14
contingowell be sure to take some time away from the process of trying to figure things out18:14
LjLthat's right, *me* having a panic attack would also be very much an issue18:14
LjLor even just snapping with my parents18:14
LjLeven when trying to be extremely cautious there's a constantly latent snapping about to occur (from both sides)18:15
pwr22So far even if it spreads a lot, the risk to an otherwise healthy individual is pretty low18:16
pwr22Sure, it's not as low as seasonal flu but it's not like ebola level18:16
pwr22I'm more worried about people in my family who are at risk ☹︎18:16
LjLpwr22, yes, same18:17
LjLwho are at risk and who don't seem to get the risk18:17
pwr22Yeah, I can imagine it's certainly more scary for you being in Italy18:17
pwr22I hope everything works out ok and simmers down there!18:17
LjLpwr22, i'm not even just in Italy, i'm just 50km short of the epicenter18:18
pwr22☹︎18:18
pwr22The WHO advice seems sensible to me at least 👍️18:21
LjLwell they keep saying the same things18:25
LjLi've only really hated the part where "packages from china are okay because the virus only lasts on surfaces for a couple hours"18:25
LjLit's NOT TRUE that we know that18:25
LjLeconomy is important, getting packages is important, they may contain medicines18:25
LjLbut i can't agree with just flatly telling lies18:26
pwr22It may be the virus usually doesn't survive that long? I don't remember the specific details of where that "up to 9 days" figure came from18:30
LjLpwr22, it's a recent review study, and it's not about this virus but other, older, known coronaviruses (SARS etc)18:31
LjLthe reality is we don't know18:32
LjLbut it is *possible* it survives up to 9 days18:32
LjLor maybe just two minutes18:32
LjLbut we don't know18:32
LjLsaying that we KNOW it only survives a few hours, so packages are safe18:32
LjLis a lie18:32
pwr22I would have thought they would have looked into this before making those kinds of statements?18:33
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 17:29 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS18:35
LjLpwr22, from their point of view (at least as i imagine it), it's like... if it *really* survives 9 days, and we tell people that, 1) they won't even bother cleaning anything because they'll assume it's impossible to keep it from all surfaces, 2) the economy will take a huge hit as people are scared to touch anything shipped18:39
LjLso from this point of view it may seem reasonable to lie about it, because no good will come from people knowing it18:39
LjLbut i counter, *some* people, like me, will figure out it's a lie, and see it as FUD, and get even more panicky than they'd otherwise have been, and not knowing what to believe18:40
LjLthe economy isn't everything18:40
RougeRheya18:41
LjLpwr22, anyway this is what the "up to 9 days" comes from to my knowledge https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463/18:42
LjLhi RougeR18:42
pwr22Yeah, I see the logic but I think that if there was any reasonable risk they wouldn't prioritise the economy over containment since it will inevitably fuck everything18:42
RougeRLjL,18:42
RougeRhey18:42
RougeRLjL, welp. did some stockups today18:42
LjLpwr22, i have no such optimism18:42
RougeRoats n pasta18:42
RougeRmy dad is fucking awful to shop with18:42
LjLRougeR, i am still pondering whether i should do that, against the fact my family will get mad at me for doing it18:42
RougeRim going on my own tommorow to get tinned goods18:42
RougeRits so expensive here!18:43
RougeRLjL, hand sanitizer sold out here18:43
RougeRi grabbed sterlising fluid 2L and some antisceptic 2L18:43
LjLRougeR, yes, same here, but we have a reasonable amount. it can also be made from alcohol and other things. my pharmacy are now making their own, we bought a jar of it, it seems okay to me18:43
RougeRthe sterlilising fluid can also be used to create clean drinking water18:43
RougeRLjL, yeah thing is18:43
RougeRwe have ANOTHER storm coming in18:44
RougeRso we cant resupply18:44
LjL%tr <it Le disgrazie non vengono mai sole.18:44
BrainstormLjL, Italian to English: Misfortunes never come alone. (Google) — The misfortunes do not come ever alone. (Apertium)18:44
BrainstormNew from Google News at 17:39 UTC: Coronavirus spreads to more countries as markets take historic tumble - CNN International: Coronavirus spreads to more countries as markets take historic tumble CNN International Live updates: Coronavirus pummels financial markets; Japanese island declares state of emergency The Washington Post WHO Raises Risk [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/MXk7GI18:47
LjLdoes anyone mind if i remove Google News tentatively? i have other feeds that are barely showing up, and the google feed just posts a lot of the same18:48
pwr22I wonder if sales of huel / soylent / saturo have gone up?18:48
LjLno idea18:49
pwr22LjL:  I don't mind18:49
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 17:42 UTC: Coronavirus: man from Diamond Princess cruise first Briton to die from illness – latest updates: Man quarantined on cruise ship in Japan becomes first Briton to die from coronavirus as WHO says epidemic could get ‘out of control’. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS19:00
pwr22Does the same news article keep getting reposted due to edits or something? I'm sure I've seen this a few times19:01
LjLpwr22, yes, that's one reason they get reposted, another is i sometimes restart the bot to change thing, and another is i'm a bad programmer19:02
LjLthings19:03
pwr22😅19:03
LjLlike now i just restarted it to remove google news19:04
LjLleft in google news for italy, hopefully less spammy, and the reddit live thread for worldnews and for italy, plus the guardian, and things that don't post often like the cdc19:04
LjLnot everyone who has decent live updates has rss feeds unfortunately, they've fallen a bit out of favor19:04
LjLand the matrix fell19:21
LjL... or not, since i'm seeing my own message on it19:22
python476hello doomers19:24
python476(jk)19:24
LjLeasy to be doomers when we're doomed19:25
python476thank covid our lord for only he could stop human consumption and pollution19:26
LjLcontingo, comments from other places19:27
LjLDrosten thinks the real case mortaliy rate will be below 0.5%, although that's much guesswork, leaving out numbers from countries where you think that there are many unreported cases and so on. I personally think that's better than just using the numbers although you already know they aren't good, but it's disputable, of course. Anyway, that would be comparable to severe (!) seasonal flu.19:27
LjLBut still, that's only the rate of those who die once infected. Many more people will probably be infected than in a seasonal flu. Although those viruses change a bit every year, the immune system is still used to the kind, while that's not the case for SARS-CoV-2.19:27
LjLEven if you only get a little cough, the number of viruses you cough out will be much higher than in a seasonal flu case.19:27
python476it's almost funny a microscopic organism is disrupting a planet19:27
contingowith only 16 genes19:28
LjLcontingo, that's loads more than 319:28
contingoebola has 7? or 919:28
python476so few ?19:28
contingoERVs tend to have 319:28
contingoI have 25,000 and fail to have any impact at all19:29
LjLhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_retrovirus19:29
python476crazy.. that's a small combinatorial space19:29
contingoI think 3 is the theoretical minimum19:29
contingofor a virion19:30
contingo%w megavirus19:31
Brainstormcontingo, megavirus  — noun: 1. Certain viruses significantly larger than other known viruses, 2. Any virus of the family Mimiviridae, 3. Any virus of the proposed family Megaviridae, genus Megavirus, represented by the newly discovered species Megavirus chilensis → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/megavirus19:31
contingoa virus with over 1K genes19:31
contingothat infects amoebas. be interesting if they evolved to infect human amoeboid cell types19:33
LjLthat's not my concept of "interesting" at this time but i suppose19:34
python476COVID ONLY 3 GENES (TUMORAL CELLS HAT'EM)19:35
LjLO.o19:35
tinwhiskersMorning folks. What's new?19:37
contingowhat's for breakfast in Tonga?19:37
python476LjL: nevermind my humor19:37
tinwhiskersPapaya and weetbix19:37
contingoI used to live near the weetabix factory19:38
tinwhiskersI have dozens of papaya trees so can live off those if I have to hunker down for a while19:38
tinwhiskersAnd coconuts of course19:38
tinwhiskersI may look like a prepper, running off solar, rain water, fish, etc., but that's just a happy coincidence19:39
python476anybody knows why plague.com is lacking graph data ?19:40
python476or alternative source19:40
tinwhiskershttp://offloop.net/covid19/19:40
python476aww hanks19:41
tinwhiskersDepends what data you want I guess. There is a link to the John Hopkins raw data on that page too.19:41
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 18:33 UTC: UCI stands by decision to halt UAE Tour over coronavirus uncertainty: Denmark’s Michael Morkov in solitary confinement Froome and Cavendish among riders tested for coronavirus Cycling’s governing body is closely monitoring developments in Abu Dhabi and Berlin after Chris Froome was among those tested for the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mIrY4h19:42
python476haha, I was wondering where other countries were, then I unchecked mainland china19:42
python476thanks tinwhiskers19:42
tinwhiskersYeah, it kinda stands out on its own still :-)19:42
python476economists kept warning us about china's wake19:43
LjLyes it's a useful site but not everything is clear immediately19:43
LjLi guess that's why people study UI/UX19:43
LjLi failed to see some of the obvious buttons19:43
LjLretrospectively obvious buttons19:43
tinwhiskersYeah, it's a bit non-intuitive. My apologies.19:44
LjLtinwhiskers, don't apologize, i'm criticizing because you made a useful thing in the first place, otherwise i wouldn't be criticizing19:44
tinwhiskersAlso, the right-click to select children thing is weird but the only way I could come up with at the time19:45
python476retrospectively obvious should be a book title19:48
python476tinwhiskers: you made it ?19:48
tinwhiskersYah19:48
python476good job then19:48
python476I discovered vuejs/front last november, I realized how fun my ergonomics skills were19:48
tinwhiskersThanks :-)19:48
python476as an ex GUI fanatics, being on the other side of the stage was a revelation19:49
LjLurgh19:52
LjLlooks like the pastebin is down19:52
LjLi get 502 bad gateway19:52
LjL%title https://bpaste.net/62LA19:52
BrainstormLjL, the URL could not be loaded19:52
tinwhiskersWhat's on the pastebin?19:52
tinwhiskers*was19:53
LjLtinwhiskers, a list of relevant links picked by me, including your site19:53
LjLi probably have the last version before adding your site saved locally19:53
LjLi guess no one reads the topic anyway19:53
tinwhiskersOh, right. The one in the/topic19:53
tinwhiskersLol19:53
LjLcontingo, did you read the "quarantined subreddit" post eventually?19:53
LjLpaste.ee is what i was using to begin with, i always use that, but apparently it's blocked by some networks19:55
LjLfor now it'll have to do19:55
LjLat least posts there can last longer than a week19:55
LjLnow Brainstorm isn't posting Google News stuff repeatedly but it also isn't posting much of anything else19:58
tinwhiskersdpaste.org is good19:58
tinwhiskersOh, you've already done it. Nice19:58
LjLi'll post on both so i have an instant backup19:59
tinwhiskersGood plan batman19:59
LjLaside from my text editor which will invariably have unsaved stuff when my computer crashes you know19:59
LjLtinwhiskers, ah well dpaste actually parses markdown and displays it as intended, which makes it different from paste.ee... since apparently i'm not turning that thing into a wiki like i originally intended, quick markdown is the next best thing probably20:01
tinwhiskersFair20:01
contingoLjL post was deleted20:05
LjLcontingo, ah but you can't get away with that! https://dpaste.org/U9Qh20:06
LjLit's just plain text though, original post may have had links and definitely had bold20:06
contingoi'm gonna pass on reading that20:09
tinwhiskersLinks would be nice (bit tedious on a phone).20:09
contingothe opening paragraphs try to establish premises that annoy me20:10
LjLcontingo, i didn't read it all because i was about to go to sleep and didn't want to get scared, but the gist is he's saying it's wrong to compare it to things like the Spanish flu even if they potentially looked scarier because the R0 and incubation periods (and i suppose maybe other things) make it more similar to the smallpox that killed 25%-50% of native american populations somewhere20:14
tinwhiskersI thought that saying covid-19 compares best to smallpox several times was over-reacting since the mortality is vastly different20:15
tinwhiskersBut I agree that covid-19 is likely to become endemic and just another one of the coronaviruses that we collectively call the common cold (also along with the rhinoviruses).20:16
LjLtinwhiskers, do we have any remotely solid figure on the mortality though? and the fact it seems almost clear no you can be reinfected... (but who knows with what frequency - damn, i just realized i wanted to click on a link that supposedly had a study on that, now it must be somehwere in my 100 browser tabs)20:17
LjLtinwhiskers, well i think contingo would agree with THAT. but here he's dramatically saying it'll kill a good portion of us20:17
LjLnot sure if as a hoax, given the subreddit is supposedly devoted to hoaxes20:17
LjLbut it's a very long hoax with scientific terms so i kind of caught my interest20:18
tinwhiskersWell the first few sweeps through the population will kill some people but after that it'll be fairly benign.20:18
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 19:03 UTC: Boris Johnson will not hold coronavirus crisis meeting until Monday: Prime minister criticised from all sides over delay in holding Cobra meeting and for lack of public appearances → https://is.gd/j4iT8d20:19
LjLwhat is "some people" though? the only study (unpublished, not reviewed) i've seen that doesn't just give a stupidly derived number says 4.8%20:19
LjLthanks Guardian i couldn't live without knowing that20:19
tinwhiskersI'm being intentionally vague because I don't know that20:19
tinwhiskersBut probably around 2-3%20:20
tinwhiskersHitting old people much harder though20:20
contingoalso at least you can recover from a severe case of it and still look pretty on the outside20:20
tinwhiskersAnd young people much less, but 2-3% on average.20:20
tinwhiskersIn the worst case with badly overloaded hospitals it could go 6-8% but that's still miles off the 30% of smallpox.20:23
LjLtinwhiskers, 2-3% is still a lot when you consider the optimist (majority?) view though. that view says, it's 2% or 3% *in Wuhan/Hubei*, but everywhere else, including China, it's more like <1%20:24
LjLbut right now in Italy it's much higher than 1%20:24
LjLbut then they say, that's because of not having spotted patient zero so there are probably loads of asymptomatic cases or simply people not reporting20:24
LjLbut then contingo was feeling dubious about asymptomatic cases being so pervasive20:24
LjLdubitant?20:24
tinwhiskers¯\_(ツ)_/¯20:25
tinwhiskersI've heard arguments both ways about a lot or a few asymptomatic cases.20:26
tinwhiskersBut we know there are some at least20:26
LjLsome, sure20:26
LjLthere's some of anything20:26
tinwhiskers:-)20:26
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 19:10 UTC: Ted Cruz tried to mock AOC's scientific knowledge – it didn't end well: The Texas senator tried to pick a fight after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called out Mike Pence’s coronavirus credentials → https://is.gd/SVyqxX20:31
LjLokay i think i'm going to re-add google news and remove Guardian now20:34
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 19:33 UTC: Coronavirus: 20th case of Covid-19 in UK confirmed – latest updates: Boris Johnson says coronavirus is UK government’s top priority as more deaths and cases are reported around the world. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS20:43
BrainstormNew from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana at 20:00 UTC: MINISTERO DELL'INTERNO - DECRETO 28 febbraio 2020: Ulteriore differimento del termine per la deliberazione del  bilanciodi previsione 2020/2022 degli enti locali dal 31  marzo  2020  al  30aprile 2020. (20A01352) → https://is.gd/Eby4ld21:08
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 20:21 UTC: Coronavirus: 20th case of Covid-19 in UK confirmed – latest updates: Boris Johnson says coronavirus is UK government’s top priority as more deaths and cases are reported around the world. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS21:32
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 20:46 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. In Italia 822 malati, si decide sulla riapertura delle scuole - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj21:57
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 20:53 UTC: Coronavirus: 20th case of Covid-19 in UK confirmed – latest updates: Boris Johnson says coronavirus is UK government’s top priority as more deaths and cases are reported around the world. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS22:09
LjLcontingo, a passage from the ACE2 hypothesis response22:33
LjL" An unpublished observation by one of us (MP) is that people using Losartan or Telmisartan tablets as antihypertensives get lesser attacks of cold & flu like illnesses. Both these drugs also do not produce cough as the side effect so commonly seen with ACE inhibitors."22:33
LjLthis makes it sound like they think it's those two drugs specifically and others may be even counterproductive, or am i reading it wrong22:33
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 21:18 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 21 as UK confirms 20th case – live updates: Italian civil protection chief confirms 820 cases in the country while Boris Johnson says Covid-19 is UK government’s top priority. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS22:33
LjLugh 21, so the percentage is still going to be terrible22:34
LjL%cases italy22:34
BrainstormLjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 655 cases, 17 deaths (2.6% of cases), 45 recoveries as of 2020-02-27T23:23:02.22:34
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 27.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries).22:34
LjLi was going to make the list into markdown...22:34
contingoLjL how are you interpreting that way? the letter is to advocate for ACE2 receptor blockers22:34
contingooh22:35
LjLcontingo, well i also don't understand why *other* flu/cold-like illnesses are relevant. do they all relate to ACE2 somehow?22:35
LjLit otherwise seemed like a specific trait of this one22:36
contingosome colds are caused by other coronaviruses, that might also bind to ACE receptors. Influenzas don't bind to ACE receptors but the metabolic systems ACE is involved in have some complicated role in affecting the severity of the illness, so blockers are still implicated somehow, i don't know the details22:41
contingothe sentence about the cough is about side effects amongst ACE2 receptor blockers, does the one you're mom's on list cough as a side effect?22:42
LjLcontingo, yes, as "not common"22:46
LjLor uncommon i guess22:46
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 21:36 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. In Italia 822 malati, si decide sulla riapertura delle scuole - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj22:46
LjLup to 1%22:46
LjL822 -.-22:46
contingoLjL sounds like Olmesartan is among the ACE blockers that are less likely to cause cough22:46
LjLcontingo, well, it's listed. anyway it's not a concern, she's been taking it for a long time - i just wonder why they mention it in that statement... do you think it's because people with COVID-19 already have a cough so ACE2 inhibitors that may cause it would be contraindicated as worsening it? or are they making some reasoning about the mechanisms involved22:47
theglasshi contingo22:47
theglasswhat's an ACE blocker?22:47
LjLtheglass, lol, i've no idea and i think contingo couldn't make me understand it even if he tried hard right now... wikipedia it up :P22:47
LjLthey're mainly medications acting against high blood pressure22:48
LjLbut the ACE2 receptors seem to be involved in COVID-1922:48
theglassuhm I know22:48
LjLso these medications may interact with the disease22:48
LjLin a good or a bad way, possibly, maybe22:48
LjLthe virus seems to bind to this receptor, the drugs inhibit this receptor (by binding to it? i'm not sure)22:49
theglassah ok22:49
LjLcontingo, i still have to find the prescription where she was given something else that she decided against starting. this thing is the one she was already taking. with any luck the new one might be one of those specifically proposed in the letter22:50
theglassIirc the Sartans are a whole class of substances22:51
contingoI have to do some work sadly22:52
LjLcontingo, yes i'm sorry22:54
pwr22<LjL "contingo, well i also don't unde"> ACE inhibitors main side effect is a persistent dry cough. ACE receptor blockers are usually given if you get that side effect. I took ramipril and it gave me some persistent flu like symptoms so I had to change to candesartan23:08
pwr22<theglass "Iirc the Sartans are a whole cla"> Yup, ARBs23:11
LjLpwr22, ah, so wait, may a key difference (for COVID purposes) be between inhibitors, and blockers? like in this case, inhibitors wouldn't help, but blockers would bind to ACE2, stopping the virus from doing that? (contingo also, but only when you're on a break)23:15
theglassYeah I was reading about them23:15
pwr22<LjL "pwr22, ah, so wait, may a key di"> Yeah potentially. ARBs tie up the ACE-2 receptors but ACE inhibitors work by preventing the conversion of ACE-1 to ACE-2 which would then bind those receptors but will not stop something else like the virus binding them23:19
theglasshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin_II_receptor_blocker23:21
theglasshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin_II_receptor_blocker#AT1_affinity_vs_AT223:22
LjLso, for utter clarity (i have personal interest in this), Olmesartan would be an ARB, not an ACE inhibitor, and as such, it is *potentially* suited for blocking the virus from binding?23:22
theglassis AT1/ACE1?23:22
LjLright, also, 2 vs whatever else23:23
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 22:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, In Iran almeno 210 morti. Oms: "Rischio ora è molto alto" - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/odFrn723:35
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 22:44 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, Oms: 'Livello minaccia mondiale virus ora molto alta'. In Italia 822 malati, si decide sulla riapertura delle scuole - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/sVSQIj23:47
theglassseems so23:49
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 22:46 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 21 as UK confirms 20th case – live updates: Italian civil protection chief confirms 820 cases in the country while Boris Johnson says Covid-19 is UK government’s top priority. Follow live news → https://is.gd/f3p9hS23:59

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