libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2020-03-01

AlbrightI'm sure by some standards he's not wrong. We've got a lot more government now than we did back during Spanish flu.00:14
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 22:58 UTC: Washington state officials confirm man in his 50s has died from coronavirus: Officials confirm patient who died was man – not a woman, as Donald Trump mistakenly said – who suffered from chronic illness → https://is.gd/80fGAb00:23
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 23:32 UTC: Trump fends off criticism of 'hoax' remark after first US coronavirus death: Man dies in Washington state as president says he used word hoax ‘with regard to Democrats and what they were saying’ → https://is.gd/PwKfdC00:48
tinwhiskers%data france00:49
Brainstormtinwhiskers: In all areas, France, there are 57 cases, 2 deaths (3.5% of cases), 11 recoveries as of 2020-02-28T20:13:09.00:49
Brainstormtinwhiskers: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 15.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries).00:49
tinwhiskers%data germany00:51
Brainstormtinwhiskers: In all areas, Germany, there are 48 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of 2020-02-28T00:13:18.00:51
Brainstormtinwhiskers: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.00:51
LjLtinwhiskers, do i read the think you said is a clusterfuck, or will it give me panic00:54
tinwhiskersNothing you don't already know00:54
LjLthat isn't necessarily related to the panic triggers00:54
LjLbut you wouldn't know my panic triggers00:55
LjLit's a bit silly to ask others to vet links for me, but hey00:55
tinwhiskersit's not ideal00:55
LjLthe whole situation is a tad less than ideal00:55
LjLfrom the point of view of humans anyway00:56
LjLrest of planet might be sighing in relief00:56
tinwhiskersfair00:56
LjLtinwhiskers, hey you already did a lot, but do you think it would be feasible to add fatalities and recoveries to the graphs00:57
tinwhiskersI just did deaths. I guess I could add recoveries00:57
LjL(and hospitalizations would be nice too, but no data source seems to aggregate that...)00:58
LjLtinwhiskers, ah, "cool"00:58
LjLi looked but only a couple hours ago00:58
LjLseriously what's the deal with italy and iran00:58
LjLaside from starting with i, why are we all dying00:59
LjLi'm a bit concerned by that00:59
tinwhiskersYeah. They don't look too good.00:59
LjLKorea isn't doing the same curve00:59
LjLand how is Japan managing to stay linear?01:00
tinwhiskersyeah, treatment seems to be better there??01:00
tinwhiskersall very interesting questions01:00
LjLtinwhiskers, well our system is not *yet* overwhelmed from what i hear, so if this is when we're doing good...01:00
spybertJapan is divided into islands, easy to isolate01:00
LjLbut have they done that? i haven't heard of them doing it01:00
LjLalso, Italy's cases are still mostly staying in Lombardy01:00
LjLbut going creepily exponential anyway01:01
LjL(to be fair Lombardy is about 10 million people, i.e. Sweden)01:01
LjLrest of country is 5001:01
LjL()01:01
tinwhiskersIt sure looks exponential at this stage, but then China looked that way and got things under control.01:03
LjLtinwhiskers, yeah, i'm just wondering how are other countries (mainly Japan) keeping it linear. when you look at countries where it's mostly *flat*, i'm like okay, they're keeping their cases all under control, and no new cases are sprouting up01:04
LjLbut japan is getting a serious increase01:04
tinwhiskersAlthough to be fair, the speed at which Italy is increasing is waaaay faster than in China01:04
LjLoh don't be fair01:04
LjLlie to me if you have to01:04
tinwhiskersYes, I've always wondered what's different about Japan. If I was to guess I'd say they are keeping it under control and most new cases are from people bringing into the country but it is not yet spreading through the population.01:05
LjLtinwhiskers, are their borders still wide open?01:07
LjL250 is not just a few cases01:07
LjLthat's not counting the ship, right?01:07
LjLthat would make it a lot more01:07
tinwhiskersI really have no idea. That's why I'm just guessing01:07
tinwhiskersyeah, pretty sure "Japan" no longer includes any of the Diamond Princess cases.01:08
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 23:44 UTC: Washington state officials confirm man in his 50s has died from coronavirus: Officials confirm patient who died was man – not a woman, as Donald Trump mistakenly said – who suffered from chronic illness → https://is.gd/80fGAb01:12
LjLBrainstorm still posts news? who knew01:14
LjLit's almost like it misses most of the feeds and just posts some randomly01:14
LjLyeah the italian dead too are all >80yo suffering from chronic illnesses01:14
LjL... if you listen to italian news. i'm scared to verify01:14
tinwhiskersah01:16
tinwhiskersbtw, if you want recent totals for Brainstorm you can grab them from http://offloop.net/covid19h/unconfirmed.csv01:16
tinwhiskersThey are updated every 30 minutes.01:17
LjLBrainstorm, reload covid01:18
BrainstormSyntaxError: invalid syntax (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 43)01:18
LjLoh right, that thing01:18
LjL%cases Italy01:20
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries.01:20
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).01:21
LjLtinwhiskers, you had to make me change Country/Region and Provice/Area into just "Name", and remove the last update time!01:21
LjLunacceptable01:21
LjLby which i mean, thanks01:21
tinwhiskersah, yes. It's very flat.01:21
LjLthe duality was actually giving me iffy problem earlier01:22
LjLiffy meaning i wrote an if statement that looked reeeaaal bad01:22
tinwhiskersyou can get the time it was updated at http://offloop.net/covid19h/lastupdate.txt but the format is pretty goofy01:22
LjLuh yeah that looks a little weird01:23
tinwhiskersI should really fix that01:23
LjLbut i'll solve that using people's human eyes01:23
tinwhiskersgive me a sec01:23
tinwhiskersis that any better?01:24
tinwhiskersThat's still kinda weird01:25
LjLi was going to just use the second line01:25
LjLit's unambiguous01:25
tinwhiskersok01:25
LjL%cases italy01:26
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 00:20 GMT.01:26
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).01:26
LjLis this a new one01:37
Spec%source covid01:54
BrainstormSpec, source code for module 'covid' can be found at https://paste.ee/p/mdj5B01:54
Speci knew it was manufactured01:54
tinwhiskersheh01:55
Spectinwhiskers: hello01:56
tinwhiskersLjL: ok, I added in the recoveries graph as well01:56
tinwhiskersHi Spec01:56
Speci saw your map01:56
Specit's very mappy01:56
tinwhiskersmap?01:56
tinwhiskersYes, I know the graphs look like the came from the 80's but that how I like my graphs :-)01:58
tinwhiskersAnd, no, there isn't a dark theme :-/01:58
LjLhello good peoples01:59
LjLi already talked to each of you independently but hello as a group01:59
Specman, i hate so many people02:02
Spechttps://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/27/us-workers-without-protective-gear-assisted-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/02:02
Spechilarious, "they weren't showing any symptoms so it's not a problem"02:03
LjLSpec, some people, many people, seem to be in denial STILL about symptomless transmission02:03
LjLall the general denial is worrying... from my family, zoom out to the whole planet02:04
LjLstill same level of general denial02:04
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 01:20 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: US state declares emergency as Australia records second Iran-linked case → https://is.gd/sRlm0602:26
Spec> Coronavirus prompts France to ban gatherings of more than 5,00002:36
Specis france still having them yellow vest protests?02:36
LjL5000, lol02:37
LjLlet's organize protests of 4999 people02:37
LjLeach in one square in paris02:37
contingoLjL, do you know the number of cases in Milan itself?02:42
LjLcontingo, theoretically... near zero?02:42
contingobut nonzero, right?02:42
LjLexcluding all the people in the hospitals, which is pretty much everyone02:42
LjLcontingo, well i'm not going to pretend 50k people in commuter suburbs haven't spread it into milan02:42
LjLthat seems... unlikely02:42
LjLbut02:43
LjLreally i don't know the official numbers02:43
LjLthey are probably trying to avoid saying it02:43
contingono I wasn't implying anything I was just wondering about confirmed cases02:43
LjLthey are never mentioning numbers in more detail than "Lombardy"02:43
LjLand Lombardy is about... i don't know, 500 last i heard, but now it's already >1000 in total, so probably 750 or so02:43
contingohmmph02:43
LjLbut they never say "Milan"02:44
LjLi feel it would be bad for morale if they said "Milan" ;(02:44
LjLit's already pretty bad for morale to watch TV shows without audiences02:44
LjLempty studios, just the main people and then they interview guests via the internet02:44
LjLpretty chilling02:44
LjL(many RAI programmes are broadcast from Milan, though most are from Rome)02:44
LjLschool closed in all of Lombardy+Veneto for at least another week02:45
LjLi know i'm not even close to answering your question02:45
Specseems like i should invest in more hand sanitizer02:45
LjLbut it might give you hints as to what they THINK is occurring02:45
LjLSpec, or make it. we bought some that our pharmacy started making, it seems kosher02:46
LjLSpec, isopropyl (thanks contingo), water, glicerol02:46
LjLmaybe something else02:46
fructoseSpec: You'd better hurry. I'm hundreds of miles from the nearest case and hand sanitizer is sold out even at Costco02:46
LjLyeah02:46
LjLface masks were sold out here weeks before the first cases even appeared02:46
fructoseI managed to get some and now that they're unavailable everywhere, people are trying to say they are ineffective02:47
Specfructose: i just noticed it's quite expensive on amazon02:47
Specisopropyl and glycerin?02:48
fructoseAnd eBay02:48
LjLuh well the surgical ones are ineffective depending on what one means by being uneffective02:48
contingoethanol sanitizer is better for skin contact but that will be the kind sold out02:48
fructoseLjL: Yes, I have N95s02:48
Speci have a few bottles of isopropyl02:48
LjLfructose, i don't think anyone is seriously saying N95s are "ineffective"02:48
LjLif anything, they say they are clearly not 100% effective on their own, and they need to be used correctly02:48
LjLwhich i'm sure you already know02:48
SpecN95s are effective if used and fitted properly02:48
fructoseLjL: https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/123372578528393216002:49
contingothat's a very telling tweet02:49
LjLfructose, eh, okay, but i think those warnings kind of assume surgical masks, because they are intended for a public who doesn't have a clue02:49
fructoseLjL: No, those warnings are just wrong.02:50
LjLand, true about doctors needing them02:50
LjLnot for themselves02:50
fructoseWhich is extra nice, given it's coming from the operational head of public health in the US02:50
LjLwell i think it's just... yes, technically inaccurate, but not "wrong"02:51
LjLi mean, people have broken in a hospital here to steal surgical masks and sanitizer02:51
LjLand i say "a" because that's the one i know about02:51
LjLdoctors and nurses definitely need to have access to these things02:51
LjLif they're sold out, or stolen out, it's tragedy for everyone02:51
LjLthey protect *patients*02:51
contingothe office of surgeon general is a political appointment who is now reduced to opening tweets with "Seriously people-"02:52
Spec$90 for 2 liters of hand sanitizer02:52
Specis that ok?02:52
Specseems like it's 300% more expensive than normal02:52
fructoseLjL: That's why it's wrong, because it's an obvious lie.02:54
fructoseIt's more likely to make people panic than reassure them02:54
fructose"Why is the surgeon general saying they don't work and that hospitals need them?"02:54
LjLthat's a reasonable argument02:55
LjLi have some similar perplexities02:55
Speccontingo: gimme dat sweet recipe02:55
contingoI haven't perfected it, I'm experimenting with various hydrocolloids XD02:56
Speci should just mix some glycerin into isopropyl until it is okay in texture right?02:56
Speconline recipes are full of aloe vera instead of glycerin02:57
contingoyeah but I'm concerned about even using isopropyl a lot as a skin sanitizer02:57
Spectea tree, cinnamon oil, etc02:58
Spec:(02:58
Specwell, depends on what "a lot" is02:58
Speccontingo: you're worried of drying out your hands?02:58
contingoyeah the literature is vague on that point so far02:58
Speci also have a large quantity of mineral spirits and acetone02:59
Specbut those are probably worse than isopropyl or witch hazel02:59
Spec:)02:59
contingoisopropyl is toxic in ways ethanol isn't02:59
contingoyes, they would be02:59
contingohttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1067008002:59
Speccontingo: yes but i touch mineral spirits directly with my hands...regularly02:59
Spec:(02:59
contingoso this lady was basically soaking herself in towels of isopropanol for six months but then was fine after three days03:00
contingoof stopping doing that03:00
Speccontingo: well shit.03:00
Specthat's a lot tho03:01
Speci assumed isoprop is safer than acetone03:01
Speccontingo: well, of all things, i don't have any ethanol, lol.03:02
contingoI think it's significantly safer and less of a skin irritant than acetone. all my conventional gel sanitizer is ethanol, but I have limited quantity03:02
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 01:50 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: Australia and US record first deaths: Australian man in his 70s was passenger on Diamond Princess cruise ship; France and Italy restrict public events as cases spread. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0603:03
Speccontingo: i can probably buy ethanol tho.03:03
contingooh, can you?03:03
Spec1 liter of $1603:03
Speclab grade, $23 for half liter03:03
contingo99% or?03:03
Spec200 proof03:03
Specso 99% ya03:04
Spec5 gallons for $10003:04
SpecHigh quality ethanol, 100 percent purity (denatured: 90 percent ethanol, 4.5 percent ipa, 5 percent np acetate)03:04
Speclol03:04
Speci thought it said "cannot be used for combustion" and i was like 'LIKE HELL IT CANT BRO"03:04
contingodo you not have to be a lab to order it?  I only amassed my reserve of ethanol when I was working in labs a lot03:04
Speccontingo: > Thank you, your order has been placed.03:05
Specguess not03:05
Speci can always use ethanol in my array of BasementChemicals :)03:05
Speccontingo: ok, i'll get it in 2 days, then i make secret recipe03:06
contingowell done03:06
contingoI can't find any info on the legality there03:07
contingomaybe I can get it03:08
Specwhy wouldn't it be legal?03:08
Specit's just ethanol03:09
Specand it's denatured03:09
contingooh denatured03:09
Specthat'll be fine for hand sanitizer :P03:10
Speci think you do have to be a lab to get non-denatured ethanol03:10
contingowhat is it denatured with?03:10
contingolike, it might not be preferable to propanol depending on the denaturing ingredients03:11
AlbrightYouTuber Mister Metokur has done some good streams ever since the epidemic started covering news, rumors, etc. He tends to highlight some of the more incredulous rumors sometimes, so take them with a grain of salt, but they're pretty entertaining outside of that. Here's the one he did today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbab5Z7jaII03:11
LjLnot done yet watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rOTz9duXwo but it seems like a reasonable exposition of a doctor's stance at least...03:13
LjL%title03:13
BrainstormLjL: From www.youtube.com: COVID-19 Sat 29 Feb - YouTube03:13
AlbrightI'll queue that one up.03:13
LjLSpec, contingo, have you settled on a recipe? i'm not caught up03:13
contingoI was spoiled with a supply of 99.99% pure reagent ethanol until recently so never really looked into denatured alcohol. My thinking was at least the isopropanol I buy is reagent grade. But there might be denatured ethanols that are more suitable, or less suitable03:14
contingono, sorry03:15
Speccontingo: isopropyl :P03:15
LjLcontingo, about isopropyl toxicity, isn't soaking your hands in it a bit different from using gels meant to evaporate almost instantly?03:15
Speccontingo: and n-propyl acetate03:16
contingoyes03:16
Specso what you'd expect to find in hand sanitizer anyways03:16
Spec> Alcohol-based versions typically contain some combination of isopropyl alcohol, ethanol (ethyl alcohol), or n-propanol03:17
contingoI'm just a pure ethanol snob03:17
Specyeah :P03:17
Speci'm not a lab! :P03:17
Speccontingo: i guess i could go to my friend's fathers' house and use their still :P03:17
contingoalso I have soaked my hands in it before by mistake a few times03:18
SpecThe Diamond Princess sounds like a nightmare dystopian science experiment tbh03:18
Speccontingo: it's not so bad, it evaporates quickly03:19
contingoand I'm A-OK03:19
Speci think lady that was soaking it in towels to keep contact is amoron03:19
Specthe badfor you solvents are the ones that dont' evap quickly and sink into/through your skin, as i understand it03:19
Specpretty sure air-drying with isoprop or ethanol will be fine, as long as you do so sparingly and not constantly, and be careful about ingesting any03:20
Specand open cuts/etc03:20
contingoI also have quite a lot of this product and haven't really investigated the thing that's in it: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B012O6V35S03:21
Speccontingo: what is ACE203:22
Spechuh, Contains water, salt and hypochlorous only.03:22
contingoangiotensin converting enzyme (version 2)03:23
Specwhat's it do?03:24
LjLcontingo, ugh, complicatedness03:25
LjLIn their comment there is an evident mistake, and, as Akamatsu stated in another comment [2], ARBs act on Angiotensin 2 receptors (AT2), which are not the same as ACE receptors. Akamatsu suggests then the possible use of ACE-inhibitors as potentially effective drugs to prevent COVID-2019 infection, although this class of drugs may worsen respiratory symptoms like cough.03:25
LjLBut even this statement is incorrect, since the ACE2 receptor, which is different from the ACE receptor and was discovered in the 2000s, is insensitive to classical ACE inhibitors [3].03:25
LjLthis is one of the rapid responses to the rapid response...03:25
contingoI also have a lot of iodine dressing pads03:25
LjLthere are a bunch of letters complaining about the suggestion of ACE2 inhibitors / ARBs03:26
LjLscan through https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m406/rapid-responses03:26
LjLThe authors seem to have made an obvious mistake. They misinterpreted ACE2 with angiotensin II receptor which are totally different molecular entities. The putative receptor for the new coronavirus (Covid-19) is ACE2, but NOT angiotensin II receptor. Therefore, it is unlikely that ARBs such as telmisaltan and losartan will be effective in inhibiting the binding of Covid-19 to ACE2. Instead, however, ACE inhibitors such as perindopril erbumine may be 03:26
LjLeffective as a preventive measure, while we must be aware that ACE inhibitors in class may cause dry cough as an adverse side effect that may make it difficult to distinguish the cough caused by the lung infection.03:26
Speccontingo: i think i have a bottle of iodine, but i'm not 100% on that03:27
Speci ought to though!03:27
contingoscanning03:27
contingoLjL that is an interesting range of informed responses that I will have to read properly after my thing tomorrow03:30
contingoas you say, complicatedness03:31
LjLindeed03:32
LjLcontingo, the gist of why they think the virus comes from bats is because something in bats is very similar and because bats have been shown to be a reservoir of cov before, right?03:33
contingoyes03:33
contingoit's just phylogenetics, sequence homology03:33
LjLSpec, i have a pinched nerve from too much typing these past few days :(03:33
LjLwell not pinched nerve, i don't know what it is03:33
LjLmaybe a pinched nerve03:33
contingosome sources say the reservoir species is a bat species but the transmission event may have been via a pangolin03:35
LjLSpec, he suspects cases in Iran are "underreported to put it mildly"03:36
LjLcontingo, yeah i've heard of that03:36
LjLi don't know why they think that though03:36
Speccontingo: a pangolin03:39
Spechow do they taste03:39
contingolike red herrings03:39
LjLheh03:40
contingothe pangolin report was due to a miscommunication where one lab thought another had determined >99% similarity between The Virus and a pangolin virus, putting it closer than the closest known bat coronavirus03:40
LjLcontingo, apparently the UK is about to swab everybody who comes in "with breathing difficulties", no matter anything else, contacts with China etc03:41
contingobut it was just 99% similarity at a small, highly conserved stretch of genome (coding for the receptor binding domain), not the overall genome03:41
LjLthat will probably test the theory there are a lot of mild cases everywhere...03:41
contingohttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w03:42
Speccontingo: ah, so no proof of origination yet?03:42
Specpangolins do look a little murderous03:43
contingothe closest match to SARS (the original) was from a civet cat, I didn't know that03:43
contingothey're adorable03:43
contingoSpec, if you're into eating threatened southeast asian wildlife, mousedeer have some of the tastiest meat on the planet, but please don't be03:44
contingohttps://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6f/Mouse-deer_Singapore_Zoo_2012.JPG03:45
LjLaw03:45
Speccontingo: lol03:46
Specthe cuter the tastier03:46
LjL;(03:46
Speccontingo: do you think this is realistic03:46
Specspread from animal?03:46
Speci guess it's the simplest explanation03:47
contingothat is the established thing that happens03:47
contingoHIV, ebola, swine flu, bird flu03:48
Speccontingo: how come this feels scarier than swine or bird flus03:49
contingogenerally these things have much lower mortality in their reservoir species03:49
Specwhy is there a higher emotional reaction03:49
contingowell first because the world health / virology community was poised for the emergence of a new SARS, which had a 10% mortality rate I think03:50
contingoso it's in that class of scary emergent viruses03:51
contingosecond, although turning out to be more like 2% lethal than 10%, this one has a higher transmissibility and could infect the whole planet quite quickly03:53
LjLcontingo, and 15% need hospitalization, or death rate may get much worse03:53
LjLi'm very worried about that part03:54
LjLespecially if it "infects the whole planet"03:54
contingoyes and then all those pandemic scenarios play out where you get more and more deaths cos healthcare and other public services are completely overloaded03:54
LjLand here they are by default03:56
LjLmaybe that puts us at an advantage, nothing to lose ;(03:56
Speccontingo: what sort of pandemic scenario do you envision03:58
Specshould i be stocking up on gasoline and guns?04:00
LjLSpec, you can't buy guns! just like you can't buy ethanol04:02
LjLand like all of us, soon, probably won't be able to buy gasoline04:02
LjLand yet, when i asked my dad if we had fully fueled our car...04:02
LjLhe was like "are you insane"04:02
LjLbut gas stations were closed pretty quickly in Wuhan04:02
Speci can still buy guns :P04:03
Specand, like, gas04:03
LjLSpec, do you "buy" your gas with guns04:05
LjLif not, will you soon04:05
Specyes04:05
Specor, at the least, we trade bullets04:05
LjL"oh you've got THAT bullet? i'm missing just the one!"04:06
LjL*BANG*04:06
contingoI don't really envision Spec04:09
contingobut having prepper stuff is fun anyway04:09
contingoyou'll need some small denomination silver and gold for when the barter economy converges back on standard mediums of exchange after the apocalypse04:10
LjLso... wait... my bitcents won't work?04:11
contingolots of bleach and batteries04:11
contingolol04:11
contingonot beyond the thunderdome04:13
Speca google employee tested positive?!04:16
Specnot even google is safe?!!!!04:16
contingomy friend at google is an extra fastidious hand washer04:32
contingothere must be some mistake04:32
tinwhiskersLjL: oh, my comment earlier about the rate of increase in Italy compared to China was wrong. Thankfully it's a bit slower in Italy than at the same time in China.04:45
LjLtinwhiskers, but it looks very similar to Korea if you toggle it on and off04:46
LjLexcept for the deaths :(04:46
tinwhiskersThat's what I thought too, but looking more closely in excel South Korea is a bit slower than China was also.04:48
LjLtinwhiskers, if you find any good or even vaguely decent news for italy, i could use them, i'm a bit short04:49
LjLalso masks04:49
tinwhiskersheh. roger that04:49
tinwhiskersthat *was* my good news04:50
tinwhiskershey, it's not as bad as China was!!! :-)04:50
LjLfair04:50
LjLSpec, i'm watching this one now https://youtu.be/TpXoY_1EG8Y some unpleasant toilet truth at the start04:50
fructosetinwhiskers: China tried to suppress information about infections, so I'm not sure it's good to base models off their data04:55
tinwhiskerswell, that may be true. I can only compare to the data available.04:56
LjLSpec, also he keeps coughing ;(04:56
tinwhiskersItaly is progressing more slowly than the *reported* data from China so if anything that casts Italy in an even better light.04:57
fructosetinwhiskers: I'm just more interested in Italy and South Korea as a result. One thing to hope for is that China's suppression actually contributed to its infection rate04:58
tinwhiskersNot sure what you mean04:59
fructoseMore public information about the disease could lead to more people taking precautions and effectively lowering the transmission rate to something managable05:00
fructoseNot that I'm actually optimistic about that, but one can hope05:00
tinwhiskersah. I see05:01
tinwhiskersActually I think given the authoritarian nature of the Chinese government we'll find we're not able to control the spread as well as the Chinese appear to have done.05:10
LjLi wouldn't be optimistic about that at all wrt italy05:10
LjLwe don't have anything like an authoritarian culture of obedience05:10
LjLand people won't know they are in danger until it hits them in the head05:11
LjLhell i took the metro three days ago05:11
LjLand i'm here saying this05:11
LjLimagine others05:11
tinwhiskersI heard a piece from a British doctor saying currently in Hubei one person is allowed to leave each household for 2 hours, once every 2 weeks. People breaking the rule are imprisoned (or worse?). I doubt we'll have such good control elsewhere.05:11
fructosetinwhiskers: I share that suspicion, but it may be a combination... the suppression of information exacerbated it, but the centralized response is more than most of the world can expect05:12
Spectbf china's numbers are low compared to total pop and is stabilizing05:12
tinwhiskersyes, for sure. Denial didn't help... USA anyone?05:12
LjLi'm not even sure italy is being completely transparent with the numbers05:12
LjLi read some concerning things05:12
LjLunclear, albeit concerning05:12
LjLSpec, China is taking these draconian measures though, are you? are you ever going to?05:13
LjLthose are hard questions to answer05:13
Specyeah05:13
LjLwell the first one is easy05:13
LjLthe second one depends on how close to apocalypse we get05:13
Speclooooool05:15
Specu-rey-nulls05:15
Specu-rye-nulls*05:15
LjLyou're a null05:15
tinwhiskersAlthough it might not be obvious by looking, Italy is increasing faster than South Korea. It's just a few extra days behind.05:19
spybertYou can be sure that mortuaries in the US will take advantage of the situation and charge double.05:21
spybertcremation will become more popular than ever05:21
tinwhiskersno doubt. The price gauging is already starting... free market... supply and demand... greed. Take your pick.05:22
tinwhiskerserr. gouging?05:22
spybertA traditional funeral and burial is now about $30k05:22
spybertThey will pop it to 60+, no doubt05:23
tinwhiskersouch05:23
Specthat's crazy expensive05:24
twomoonwow i was just thinking about cemetary plots05:27
spybertThe numbers of dead I see now, even in China, don't require mass burials05:30
LjLi think they're being burned05:31
LjLcremated, sorry05:31
spybertsure, less than 300005:32
Specwhen does an infected person become no longer contagious?05:34
pwr22When they are no longer detectably infected?05:35
fructoseSpec: I don't think that's well-understood. There are cases of re-infection too.05:38
Specare there, though?05:40
fructoseYes. There may be something else going on, but those are cases described publicly.05:44
tinwhiskersI don't thin kit's known. It could be a reinfection. There is some sort of protective mechanism that the lungs provides that only lasts about 30 days. But it could also just be that those patients relapsed after getting well enough to test negative or they had several false negative tests.05:55
Spechmm06:21
tinwhiskers"The Chinese have reported 14% of their recovered cases as being reinfected or starting the second phase of a biphasic disease. They have stated they are monitoring all recovered patients. (Just as Japan has reported one patient who is reinfected) The WHO said in their press conference yesterday that they do not know if it is biphasic or if after you have the disease there is little immunity generated." - source not stated06:46
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 05:33 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand record first deaths: Australian man in late 70s was passenger on Diamond Princess; two more doctors have die in China. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0606:48
tinwhiskers%cases iran06:54
Brainstormtinwhiskers: In Iran, there are 593 cases, 43 deaths (7.3% of cases), 123 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 05:30 GMT.06:54
Brainstormtinwhiskers: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.4% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 25.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries).06:54
tinwhiskers%cases italy06:54
Brainstormtinwhiskers: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 05:30 GMT.06:54
Brainstormtinwhiskers: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).06:54
pwr22%cases uk07:36
Brainstormpwr22: In UK, there are 23 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 8 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 06:30 GMT.07:36
Brainstormpwr22: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.07:36
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test) at 07:10 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: "Lecca la reliquia challenge" In Iran impazza una nuova sfida → https://is.gd/XApIrY08:26
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:25 UTC: Sunak must rethink budget to deal with coronavirus threat, say experts: Former advisers and ministers say outbreak makes job for chancellor harder Chancellor Rishi Sunak will have to rethink key parts of the budget next week because of growing fears that the spread of the coronavirus will trigger a global economic [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RzQYaU08:38
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:33 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: the key scientific questions answered: What are the statistics on surviving Covid-19? When might a vaccine be ready? Find out here Coronavirus Covid-19 has now spread to six continents – only Antarctica is currently free of infections – and has triggered more than 85,000 cases of respiratory [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/bOEySy08:50
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:49 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand record first deaths: Australian man in late 70s was passenger on Diamond Princess; two more doctors have died in China. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0609:03
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 09:34 UTC: What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?: What are the symptoms caused by the virus from Wuhan in China, how does it spread, and should you call a doctor? → https://is.gd/r6LI2A10:41
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 09:43 UTC: Coronavirus: Matt Hancock considering 'all options' for containing virus in UK – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0610:53
theglass<Brainstorm> New from Reddit (test) at 07:10 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: "Lecca la reliquia challenge" In Iran impazza una nuova sfida → https://is.gd/XApIrY11:02
theglassplease tell me this is not true11:02
mefistofelestheglass: it's Iran, what can you say... religious fanatics all over11:04
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 09:52 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, l'assessore lombardo al Welfare: "Richiameremo in servizio infermieri e medici in pensione" - TGCOM → https://is.gd/69gnjE11:05
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:32 UTC: Coronavirus: Hancock says shutting down cities may become necessary – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0611:42
Timvde%data Belgium12:06
BrainstormTimvde: In Belgium, there are 1 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 11:00 GMT.12:06
BrainstormTimvde: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.12:06
TimvdeHey, that's wrong, we've got a second case12:06
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:52 UTC: Coronavirus: Matt Hancock says shutting down UK cities may become necessary – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0612:06
petersjt014[m]%help12:07
Brainstormpetersjt014[m]: Hi, I am LjL's bot! Say %modules or %commands to me in private to see my features.12:07
petersjt014[m]%commands12:07
Brainstormpetersjt014[m], all exposed commands: act, anagrams, ask, bible, book, bug, commands, count, dick, echo, evaluate, geo, grammar, greet, help, language_code, language_identify, languages, last, link_get, link_put, lojban, modules, morphology, onelook, phonology_change, ping, pronunciation, search, seen, spell, spell2, stock [... want %more?] (try %help <command>, or %modules for a directory)12:07
petersjt014[m]%dick12:08
BrainstormAttributeError: 'NoneType' object has no attribute 'rstrip' (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/dick.py", line 85, in dick)12:08
petersjt014[m]oh dear12:08
Timvde%dick foo12:09
BrainstormTimvde, Korean: foo - 1. (혐오를 나타내어) 체, 제기랄!; (통신상에서 말을 걸 때) 실례합니다.2. 푸(프로그램 예(例) 따위에서 제1의 변수에 상투적으로 쓰는 이름; 제2 이하는 bar, baz 따위). // foo-foo 미국·영국 [fú:fù:] - 바보, 멍청이 // foo yong 미국식 [ˈjɔːŋ] play 영국식 [ˌfuːˈjɒŋ] - 부이용(중국식 [... want %more?]12:09
Timvdebut yea, that could use a None check :P12:10
petersjt014[m]With. None/null/nil, the million dollar mistake. >:(12:10
petersjt014[m]*Eugh12:11
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:22 UTC: Matt Hancock: ministers to publish coronavirus 'battle plan' for UK: Health secretary says options from closing schools, banning large gatherings and isolating cities being considered → https://is.gd/RxCgJu12:31
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:39 UTC: Coronavirus: Matt Hancock says shutting down UK cities may become necessary – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0612:55
theglass%data italy13:28
Brainstormtheglass: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 12:00 GMT.13:28
Brainstormtheglass: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 38.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).13:28
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 12:35 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, ultime notizie: nuova vittima a Piacenza, i morti salgono a 30. Oltre 1100 i contagi. Il sindaco di Codogno: «Dal governo schiaffo immeritato» - Open → https://is.gd/Hps8gG13:44
LjLhi13:48
LjLi see y'all've been playing with the bot13:48
LjLTimvde, what are you doing here, go back to not worry about this13:49
LjLor worry sensibly13:49
TimvdeLjL: Second case here13:49
TimvdeWe're officially in phase 213:49
LjLTimvde, oh, welcome then, not much of a party, but here, have some cookies, barely coughed on13:54
Timvde... thanks? :P13:55
LjLTimvde, i am a worrier, are you a worrier13:55
LjL(not the same as warrior)13:55
TimvdeNah, not really13:56
LjLcool, you'll be better off13:56
LjLtake some precautions though before it's late13:56
LjLwithout worrying13:56
LjLsome things are almost impossible to buy now here13:56
python476hi again14:01
LjLAmerican Airlines suspend all flight with Milan14:01
python476when doom over ?14:01
python476y'all seen this map https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967 ?14:03
python476pollution changes since covid popped14:03
LjLHah14:08
LjLScarygood14:09
python476covid will cool the planet14:09
python476between deaths and reduced economic activity14:09
LjLYes the planet will benefit14:11
LjLBut selfish as it is, I still don't want to die14:11
python476how surprising14:12
python476LjL: do you have a weak immune system ?14:13
LjLpython476, kinda14:13
LjLbut my family has worse chances14:13
python476oh ok14:13
LjLsister is on immunosuppressants, parents are elderly, dad smokes14:14
python476where do youlive ?14:14
LjLMilan14:14
python476so I can notify covid not to visit you14:14
LjLheh14:14
python476he's very polite14:14
LjLbit too late14:14
python476hi neighbor14:14
LjLsalut14:14
python476<= francese14:14
LjLi saw the IP14:14
python476oh you knew !14:14
LjLhow about...14:14
python476hehe14:14
python476francese is spanish ?14:14
LjLfrancese is italian14:15
LjLfrances is spanish (with an accent perhaps)14:15
python476ha right14:15
python476anyway14:15
python476how are things near you14:15
LjLbut, like, you've annoyed us a lot at Ventimiglia with sending refugees back to us and suspending Schengen for the perennial etat d'urgence14:15
LjLand NOW you say you're keeping it all open?14:15
LjLyou're a bit backwards14:15
LjLclose the borders ffs14:15
LjLpython476, i'm good and so is my family for now, just not psychologically14:16
LjLwe're not quarantined, but we're about 50km from the quarantined area14:16
python476I have no idea what you're talking about14:16
LjLand it's obvious there must be undetected cases in Milan14:16
LjLpython476, not following EU politics much then i guess?14:16
python476LjL: could say that14:16
LjLfair14:16
LjLit just makes people annoyed anyway14:16
LjLi do it because i'm sort of a masochist i think14:17
python476are there a lot of people coming from france since covid ?14:17
LjLno14:17
LjLit's the other way around14:17
LjLpeople are leaving Italy and infecting people in other countries already14:17
LjLi am usually all for keeping Schengen open, always14:17
LjLbut... this is a very unusual situation14:17
python476yeah totally14:17
LjL"very unusual" is an understatement i feel14:18
python476unforeseen effect of european union freedom of movement14:18
LjLpython476, well, i mean - 50000 people near me are quarantined. they can't leave.14:18
LjLthis is scary, if i were one of them, i'd be very scared14:18
python476"good for the economy and the infection !" -- some minister in 195014:18
LjLbut it's necessary14:18
python476true14:18
LjLso if we can "lock" people into towns *within* italy... surely other countries wouldn't be crazy to close their borders with us, either14:18
python476do you have enough food around ?14:18
LjLyes, people hoard supermarkets because people are stupid... but they are restocking14:19
python476LjL: i can't speak for the borders but news in france are talking about more and more lockdowns14:19
LjLwhat we can't buy are face masks, sanitizers... and i guess some other things14:19
LjLpython476, in italy we are sort of not adding new lockdowns, for now14:19
LjLactually they have relaxed the rules in Lombardy a little14:19
LjLwhich i disagree with14:19
LjLthey've reopened pubs & clubs14:19
LjLfor a week they kept them closed after 18:0014:20
LjLbut "the economy must run"14:20
LjLMilanese aperitivo is important, clearly, but also... a huge source of infection :\14:20
LjLpython476, have you had a look at the links in the channel topic by any chance?14:20
python476no14:20
python476only one14:21
python476offloop.net/covid19/14:21
LjLgood, that's the one i wanted you to look at14:21
LjLhave you played with the buttons?14:21
LjLdisable china, then enable/disable Korea repeatedly14:21
LjLand look at how nearly-identical italy looks14:21
LjLunfortunately, with more deaths14:21
LjL%cases france14:22
BrainstormLjL: In France, there are 104 cases, 2 deaths (1.9% of cases), 12 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 13:00 GMT.14:22
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 14.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries).14:22
LjLoh well shit.14:22
LjLyesterday there were like... only a very few cases?14:22
LjL%cases germany14:23
BrainstormLjL: In Germany, there are 117 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 13:00 GMT.14:23
BrainstormLjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.14:23
LjLGermans don't die o.o14:23
LjLgood for them14:23
python476I'm a dev, I don't click buttons14:23
LjLlol okay14:23
python476I read the page source directly !:D14:23
LjLpython476, well the page is made by a member of this channel14:23
LjLso maybe talk to them if you have ideas14:23
python476i think it's fine as it is14:24
python476only need is to show it to more people14:24
python476because plague.com is broken 50% of the time14:24
LjLwell some of the other links in the topic are good14:24
LjLbut some are in chinese14:24
LjLthey have *many* graphs, they'd probably be interesting14:24
python476Brainstorm: any idea about India "real" count ?14:24
LjLbut i have no idea what they say, especially because a lot of the characters are part of images, so google won't translate them14:25
LjLpython476, no one does :\14:25
python476which is a problem14:25
python476LjL: it might be a a bad idea but right now I'd like a google map with house of infected people :D14:25
LjLlol14:25
python476or a covid variant of tinder14:25
LjLSpec, i bet America may do that14:25
python476"13 infected hot girls near you, swipe left, swipe left fast"14:26
LjLwell i don't even use apps because i'm fixated with privacy and open source14:26
LjLso i don't have a girlfriend or a boyfriend or even a cat14:26
python476there's an app to date cats ?14:26
LjLi'm sure if i could think of one, someone made one14:27
python476true14:27
LjLdo you have any opinion on Brassens14:28
LjLi might start a Brassens playlist on youtube14:28
LjLjust for a cynicism infusion14:28
python476Brassens lol14:28
python476accidental IRC Frenchness14:28
python476I don't know much, the few songs I know I like14:29
LjLpython476, there are many songs of his translated into Milanese by Nanni Svampa (you won't know him), and some into Italian by Fabrizio De André (i think everyone ought to know him, but alas)14:29
LjLBrassens said the Svampa translations are some of the ones he liked best14:30
LjL(there have been Brassens translations in many languages)14:30
python476I recently heard about an italian guy who had a 40 year long career and sold millions of albums, apparently all italy loves him .. and I never heard of him until last month14:30
python476surprising how music markets can be14:30
python476Fashion tips for 2020: https://imgur.com/a/aI65p4o14:31
LjLyeah... but Italian pop music was very popular for a time, and translated into many languages. but today, some of those translated songs are famous in their respective countries, but few people know they came from Italy14:31
LjLthose are not great songs though, they were just "hits" in the 60s/70s14:31
LjLpython476, in a TV show last night, with nearly-empty studioes because it was broadcast from Milan and the rules say there can't be an audience and they can't invite people from other cities now... an actor recited a piece of https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Betrothed_(Manzoni)/Chapter_3114:32
LjL%title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QiXvQ98aJw14:32
BrainstormLjL: From www.youtube.com: The Best of Georges Brassens (full album) - YouTube14:33
python476wow14:33
LjLah no, i wanted the specific song14:33
python476internet is gonna love covid14:33
LjL%title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQRgym8IDGM14:33
python476facetime use +300%14:33
BrainstormLjL: From www.youtube.com: Georges Brassens - La mauvaise réputation - YouTube14:33
LjLhis R is funny14:34
python476"L'auvergnat" is one of the nicest14:34
LjLoh yes14:34
LjLbut i don't want to get all sad yet14:34
python476LjL: these R are a lost art nowadays14:34
python476"everybody points their finger at me, except the crippled obviously"14:35
LjL:)14:35
LjLpython476, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IEnEDeJUjI you won't understand this but please listen anyway... the lyrics are here https://www.musixmatch.com/it/testo/Nanni-Svampa/Canzon-per-el-rotamatt if you want to give it a try14:36
python476aight14:37
python476what does 'el rotamatt' means ?14:38
LjLpython476, it is a word for someone who deals with broken things14:40
LjLfixes them, uses them, gets them from people14:40
LjLnot really something that exists anymore as such14:41
LjL%w auvergnat14:41
BrainstormLjL, auvergnat  — adjective: 1. Of, from or pertaining to the region of Auvergne; Auvergnese — noun: 1. A dialect of the Occitan language, spoken in Auvergne → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/auvergnat14:41
LjLhm14:41
LjL%w rotamatt14:41
BrainstormLjL, Norwegian Bokmål spelling suggestions: ro tamatt, ro-tamatt, rota matt, rota-matt (aspell/nb)14:41
LjLi think there's an equivalent italian word but i can't remember it14:41
python476oh like fixing people's problem I suppose14:42
LjLalso unfortunately i'm not fluent in Milanese. my parents are only fluent in understanding it but they don't speak it, and my grandparents (aside from being dead) were "ashamed" to speak it to their children, or me14:42
LjLbut i understand the song14:42
LjLsometimes there are words i don't quite get14:42
LjLpython476, another i like (translated or original) is la mauvaise herbe14:43
LjL%w erba matta14:43
python476https://twitter.com/search?q=%23covid14:43
BrainstormLjL, Italian spelling suggestions: erba matta (aspell/it)14:43
LjLlots of american tweets for me there14:44
python476yes14:44
python476panic at the mall14:44
LjLah :\14:44
LjLas i said yesterday, cultures level down to a minimum common denominator in these cases14:45
LjLeven people in Japan are emptying supermarkets14:45
LjLand those are... Japanese14:45
python476yes there's not enough wise people14:45
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 13:30 UTC: Coronavirus: confirmed case in Shenzhen 'had been working in UK' – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0614:46
python476survival instincts is not much social14:46
python476LjL: a little surprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMrDJLPlq2014:46
LjLnot quite similar to Brassens14:47
python476you're exagerating14:47
LjLjust joking14:47
python476;)14:47
python476LjL: the producers of this band are italian14:48
python476I so thought this was full american disco/rnb14:48
python476but no.14:48
LjLyeah... i do have a very disco song in mind lately though14:48
LjL%yt forever young alphaville14:48
pwr22Twelve more positive cases in the UK14:48
BrainstormLjL, t1TcDHrkQYg: Forever Young by Alphaville! Official video~ Best quality~ → https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1TcDHrkQYg14:48
python476pwr22: stop bragging14:48
LjLhi pwr2214:48
pwr22BBC News - Twelve more coronavirus cases confirmed in England14:49
pwr22https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5169799114:49
pwr22Hi14:49
LjLpwr22, apparently france and germany are really spiking now14:49
pwr22<Brainstorm "LjL, t1TcDHrkQYg: Forever Young "> A good song14:49
LjLpwr22, i don't think i asked you where you're from14:49
pwr22UK14:49
LjLah14:49
LjLwell, it'll spike everywhere14:49
LjLprepare, whatever, i cannot say much14:49
pwr22My family are coming to visit me next weekend but that may have to get postponed14:50
python476next: P Lion14:50
LjLpwr22, if you have elderly, keep them the hell at home if you can14:50
LjLi can't with mine14:50
python476pwr22: all visits will now take place at prison glass-split booth14:50
pwr22My dad has health problems that mean I'd rather he not get sick, yeah14:52
python476same, my father would probably get close to death if it gets there14:53
pwr22I read yesterday that the NHS were going to start screening anyone with any possible symptoms no matter how minor14:54
pwr22That that could be behind the surge here today14:54
python476stats are swinging14:55
python476states are either ignoring or overscanning14:56
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 13:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: American Airlines sospende i voli su Milano. Violazione della 'zona rossa', 18 denunciati - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/kTbacq14:58
LjL pwr22 that might be an overstatement, what i read is they'll swab if they have shortness of breath specifically14:59
LjLbut things are fluid right now14:59
LjLugh14:59
LjL%tr  Violazione della 'zona rossa', 18 denunciati15:00
BrainstormLjL, Italian to English: Violation of the 'red zone', 18 reported (MyMemory, Google) — Breach of the '#red zone', 18 denounced (Apertium)15:00
LjLhere's a song about unthinkable events happening and people just carrying on ignoring them https://lyricstranslate.com/en/les-7-i-quart-quarter-past-seven.html15:04
LjLat least that's how i interpret it, they are a bit cryptic as a band15:04
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 14:02 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0615:10
LjLFrance, Germany and Britain are losing it now15:11
LjLBrainstor, reload covid15:13
LjLBrainstorm, reload covid15:14
BrainstormLjL: <module 'covid' from '/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py'> (version: 2020-03-01 14:13:52)15:14
LjL%cases Italy15:14
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 14:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.15:14
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).15:14
python476who wrote Brainstorm ?15:14
python476tinwhiskers ?15:14
LjLthe core is jenni, a fork of phenny, but i wrote the various modules15:14
LjLand i run it15:14
LjLi'm getting the data above from tinwhiskers's kindly provided CSV though15:14
LjLi was getting them from JHU before, but they are never up to date15:15
LjLso i just added an automatic mention of his site, seems fair15:15
LjLalthough it's also in the topic's list15:15
LjLbut who reads topics15:15
python476topics: who are they, what are they here for15:16
LjLthat's for ##philosophy :P15:16
python476philoso.py15:19
LjLha15:21
LjLhttps://lyricstranslate.com/en/blaumut-massa-tard-lyrics.html15:29
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 14:36 UTC: Coronavirus: Pence defends Trump Jr claim Democrats want 'millions' to die: Vice-President is leading White House taskforce on outbreak Republicans are only ‘pushing back’, Pence claims Robert Reich: Trump’s cuts have made the danger far worse When Donald Trump Jr said Democrats hope coronavirus “kills [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5siArL15:48
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 14:55 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0615:59
LjLstop schools, stop night clubs16:08
LjLokay don't stop transport if that's critical16:08
LjLbut stop most things, really16:08
LjLhonestly i would still stop metros... keep transport on the surface, with open windows16:08
LjLbut you people aren't governments16:09
LjLbut i can't talk to governments16:09
python476maybe have indirect grocery delivery16:09
python476so people don't amass to stores16:09
LjLyeah, although those poor "riders" as we call them here, the delivery workers, are already SO overworked16:10
LjLand in danger of being run over by a car all the time16:10
LjL%cases spain16:13
BrainstormLjL: In Spain, there are 73 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 2 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 15:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.16:13
BrainstormLjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.16:13
LjLoh gee, spain is spiking too? i thought they were sort of okay16:13
LjLtinwhiskers, could i tax you with a "Select all EU" option16:14
LjLi can provide the list of countries16:14
LjLwell "Select all Schengen" may be more appropriate, i dunno16:15
LjLor maybe just make EU countries regions of "EU"16:18
LjLthat way we get the totals too16:18
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 15:20 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: UK fears  of undetected cases grow as 12 more test positive → https://is.gd/usqOjz16:36
LjLconsidering their new testing policy, 12 doesn't seem like a lot16:37
Timvde%cases Belgium16:38
BrainstormTimvde: In Belgium, there are 2 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 15:35 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.16:38
BrainstormTimvde: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.16:38
LjLtinwhiskers, also, i think it would be reasonable to enable "non-authoritative" data by default16:41
LjLthey're pretty authoritative really16:41
LjLand people miss that box16:41
python476where do you scrape the data btw ?16:48
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 15:35 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0616:48
LjLpython476, there is a github run by someone at JHU that uploads data on a daily basis. but since "daily" isn't so quick, i get the data from tinwhiskers, who gets them... somehow16:49
LjLbefore, i got them from the github16:49
LjLhis data are reliable anyway, just more up to date than some others16:50
tinwhiskersYeah, but due to the timing of the data they can make slope of the curve incorrect and therefore misleading16:51
LjLtrue that16:55
tinwhiskerspython476: it comes from a couple of sources which all kind of leap-frog each other in terms of who is most up to date, so I take the highest values between them. You probably already know these sources.16:56
LjLyeah, i have found no single source that beats them all16:56
LjLReddit (one of the subs dedicated to this, i've lost track) has a cool map16:56
LjLbut it's a bit of a different thing16:56
tinwhiskersOne has a nice tidy json data set but tends to be a bit slower and the other one is scraped16:56
LjLanyway it's in the links16:56
LjLtinwhiskers, you aren't in europe so i guess you don't have to care about database rights16:56
LjLscraping may still violate some ToS but what the hell, this virus is violating us a lot more16:57
tinwhiskersYeah, I'll stop if asked by the rights holder16:58
python476tinwhiskers: data races 2.017:11
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 16:05 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, ultime notizie: nuova vittima a Piacenza, i morti salgono a 30. Oltre 1100 i contagi. Il sindaco di Codogno: «Dal governo schiaffo immeritato» - Open → https://is.gd/Hps8gG17:13
LjL30... just one more than yesterday for now, but how many cases17:14
LjL%cases italy17:14
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 16:05 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.17:14
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).17:14
LjLwell, it says 29 and not 30 so the cases must also be lower than latest estimate17:15
tinwhiskersLjL: as for, a "select all EU" do you just want to select them or have a subtotal?17:16
LjLtinwhiskers, well, subtotal would be nice, as i said, you could make EU a "country" and have regions within it. but if that's a hassle, being able to select them all would also be nice17:16
tinwhiskersHrm17:17
tinwhiskersI'll have a look in the morning17:18
LjLtinwhiskers, the Schengen area is a free movement area so it makes logical sense too17:18
tinwhiskersIs there a good place to get a list of countries in the EU?17:18
LjLtinwhiskers, i'll provide a list of EU countries as well as a list of Schengen countries, then you can choose. a few some Schengen borders are "temporarily" closed, so the theory is different from the practice in some ways17:19
LjLprovide you *with*?17:19
tinwhiskersIt might make sense to have various subtotals you can select like "EU", "Schengen", "World outside China" rather than making artificial groupings of the checkboxes.17:21
|daryl|https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#the-27-member-countries-of-the-eu17:21
fructosehttps://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=703717917:24
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 16:14 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0617:25
LjLtinwhiskers, i hope i've done it correctly https://paste.ee/p/VtyIa17:28
LjLtinwhiskers, yeah well the EU is like... there's the EU proper but then there's a lot of subsets because there's always SOME treat that SOME countries aren't in17:29
LjLbut viruses don't read treaties, so i would take an "EU+" view here17:29
tinwhiskersSure17:29
tinwhiskersOk, no problem. It would be good to have "South America" "Africa" and others as well. Subtotals and buttons to select the individual series. Open to suggestions for other regions.17:32
LjLtinwhiskers, yeah, regions that are separate either geographically or politically (in terms of who can come and go) are probably useful17:32
LjLtinwhiskers, but Africa doesn't have real data, mostly17:33
tinwhiskersNot yet17:33
LjLi mean... i'm pretty sure they have cases, they're just not counting them17:33
tinwhiskersAnd yeah, but whatever the agencies publish17:33
tinwhiskersFair17:33
LjLtinwhiskers, maybe "Hindustan" is another region of interest, although that may create arguments i guess maybe17:33
LjLi mean India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, the Fiji... not sure if i'm forgetting someone17:34
LjLSri Lanka17:34
LjLsorry Sri17:34
tinwhiskersFiji?17:34
tinwhiskersOh. Right17:34
LjLislands, they have lots of Hindus/Indians17:34
LjLHindi is an official language17:34
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 16:44 UTC: Mike Bloomberg to address US in TV ad on coronavirus and Trump’s response: Trump tweets: ‘Mini Mike Bloomberg’s consultants and so-called advisors (how did that advice work out? Don’t ask!)’ Pence defends Trump Jr claim Democrats want ‘millions’ to die Mike Bloomberg has bought three minutes of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/c0MOk717:50
tinwhiskersYes, I'm right next to Fiji. I just hadn't really thought of it as Hindu, but yeah, there's lots of Indians there.17:51
LjLtinwhiskers, my bot does earthquakes, so i often see the warning for Fiji, which automatically includes Hindi because i use a library for languages-to-region18:01
LjLwell, languages-to-country actually. region would be better18:01
LjLit's silly to give a warning in Catalan... to Granada18:01
LjLbut right now i do it anyway18:01
mefistofeles%data germany18:04
Brainstormmefistofeles: In Germany, there are 129 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 16:35 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.18:04
Brainstormmefistofeles: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.18:05
mefistofelesLjL: so, how are things going?18:05
LjLmefistofeles, *deep sigh*18:07
LjLwe're okay18:07
Specwe are all goooood18:08
mefistofelesLjL: good to hear18:08
Speci have been learning about cells18:10
mefistofelesInteresting how the new cases curves between countries like Italy, Iran or Germany are compared to those from Singapore or Hong Kong18:10
Speci am in AWE about the number of mechanical actions the protein MACHINES do in our cells18:10
LjLmefistofeles, more than interesting it's terrifying18:10
Speci didn't realize how...mechanical and life-like everything is on the nanoscale18:10
LjLbut i guess it's interesting if you aren't in one of those18:10
mefistofelesLjL: not really, the normal expected curves are the one from Italy, Iran or similar18:11
mefistofeleseve Korea shows it18:11
mefistofeleseven*18:11
LjLSpec, everything is a continuum. i have to finish a conversation about that with someone, who foolishly thinks that maybe dolphins or apes share a consciousness with us, but other animals don't - arbitrarily18:11
LjLmost things are continuums18:11
Spechmm18:12
LjLmefistofeles, well they are expected and dangerous. those other countries are... somehow managing to contain it18:12
LjLwe need to do whatever they're doing18:12
mefistofelesso the abnormal ones are the others, which would make me thing they either got very few people infected and were noticed early, or they have a lot of infected people without diagnose18:12
mefistofeless/thing/think18:12
Brainstormmefistofeles meant to say: so the abnormal ones are the others, which would make me think they either got very few people infected and were noticed early, or they have a lot of infected people without diagnose18:12
LjLmefistofeles, or they are succeeding at containment. that's the WHO's view so far18:12
LjLfrom the day before yesterday's press conference18:12
LjLi didn't hear today's one, or yesterday's one18:12
mefistofelesyeah, same here, I'm basically just watching series nowadays xD18:14
mefistofelesnow, have you heard something about the R0 thing?18:14
mefistofelesdo we have a better estimate yet?18:14
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 16:55 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0618:14
LjLmefistofeles, no, no idea, last i heard was 2.2 minimum, up to 3, but it was just a video from a person18:15
LjLi am disappointed my bot is so useless with news18:15
mefistofelessome scientists said it was up to 6.6 or something like that, but that was weeks ago18:15
LjLmefistofeles, let's hope it's just not18:15
LjLwe may as well give up if it's that18:15
Spec6.6 r0?18:16
mefistofelesI guess it should be easy to fit the curves and check it ourselves18:16
Specthat's some significant spreadiness18:16
LjLmefistofeles, tinwhiskers apparently knows how to use excel18:16
LjLi'll let him do that18:16
LjLthough he's probably busy adding the EU to the site :P18:17
Specso do the numbers we see from other countries line up with what china was producing?18:17
mefistofeleswell, excel is kinda crappy for this, tbh xD but any will do18:17
mefistofelesI could make something in python... maybe...18:17
tinwhiskersThe R0 changes depending on human behaviour so you can't really give a single value and different countries will be different. You can give an average but that's not all that useful anyway.18:19
tinwhiskersAnd we don't have enough data to say anything useful outside most of China anyway18:19
Specyeah18:20
Spechandwashings is important, eh18:20
LjLtinwhiskers, if you can automagically deduce an R0 for each country, that'd be interesting in itself18:21
Speci suspect i will inevitable get it 'cause i've got children18:21
LjLit shows how much they're containing it, in a different way from the curves18:21
LjLSpec, i HOPE when countries see this is becoming pervasive, schools will be closed18:21
tinwhiskersIn epidemiology, in theory R0 is "without management" but you can't remove management from the equation when dealing with human outbreaks.18:21
LjL(they're closed here, but only in the most affected regions)18:21
LjLi know most parents aren't happy with that thought18:21
SpecLjL: "affected regions"18:21
LjLbut it's kind of important18:21
LjLSpec, Lombardy and Veneto18:21
Speclol18:21
tinwhiskersYes, doing the R0 for each country would be great18:21
SpecLjL: i keep thinking 14 days no symptoms :P18:21
LjLSpec, 14 since what18:22
Specnot usual, 7 days.18:22
SpecLjL: you can be an asymptomatic spreader for 2-14 days, right?18:22
LjLyes, rarely more18:22
LjLbut sometimes more18:22
Specso "affected areas" is a joke to me18:22
LjLeeeeh i know18:22
Specall areas could be affected and it's just chance18:22
mefistofelesI mean, for China, the R is already less than 1, I'd say18:22
LjLbut at least they are reacting18:22
LjLa bit18:22
mefistofelesthe interesting thing is getting it for Italy or Germany or such18:22
SpecLjL: i looked into a crystal ball and i forsee a case in my  area in the next fortnight :P18:22
LjLSpec, for now the exponential growth is still just in Lombardy and Veneto18:22
LjLthe known exponential growths18:23
LjLcases elsewhere have been isolated18:23
Speci see18:23
Specso community-to-community only in lombardy and veneto?18:23
LjLSpec, likely elsewhere too18:23
LjLi said, known18:23
LjLbut if it gets BAD, they'll notice18:23
Specyou mean when people are dying18:23
Spec3 weeks after community2community spreading has taken root?18:23
LjLwhen people have concerning symptoms18:23
LjLi hope that's a bit before dying18:23
Speci think it is 1-2 weeks before dying18:24
LjLyeah, okay, then that18:24
LjLSpec, it's hard enough to convince my parents that doing or not doing something *within a week* (or less) can make a difference18:24
LjLthey're old, they just don't seem to be able to comprehend that this thing is moving fast18:24
LjLevery day, twice the sick18:24
Specexponential curves are quite exponential18:24
LjLand 70yo people are used to normality18:25
LjLand their brains are adjusted for slow reaction18:25
Specwhat are the chances this thing is already far more widespread than thought, but many people have very mild/low reactions?18:26
Specwe wont' really know until we screen every patient at GPs right?18:26
LjLSpec, the UK has started doing swabs for everyone with certain symptoms (shortness of breath), even if they're sort of mild18:26
LjLso that'll be one interesting experiment18:27
LjLSpec, i think some people have gone from thinking that widespread asymptomatic disease was probably the case, to... probably not18:27
LjLcontingo probably thinks that18:27
Specto probably not?18:27
Speci don't know which would even be better, honestly18:27
mefistofeleswe can surely say the numbers we get are less than the actual numbers18:28
LjLSpec, i'm not sure, it would lower mortality, but does it matter? it's still the same people dying, and it's still the same amount of people requiring hospitalization, and that'll be the real problem18:28
LjLmefistofeles, yes, but significantly?18:28
mefistofeleshow off? That depends on many things, but they are surely under the real actual numbers18:28
mefistofelesI mean, I bet it's already in South America and such, but it's probably just a "flu" there and people don't even bother18:29
SpecLjL: lowering mortality would mean the curve won't continue to be sharp rise, though18:29
Specmefistofeles: right18:29
LjLSpec, but the curves are important to see what happens to the people - not the other way around18:30
Specyeah18:30
mefistofelesLjL: which curves?18:30
mefistofelesand how?18:30
LjLmefistofeles, this is worse than a flu. when 15-20% have hospitalization symptoms, some alarm bells should trigger (maybe not in Africa)18:30
mefistofelesLjL: again, hospitalization criteria varies A LOT18:30
LjLmefistofeles, i mean in general, if knowing something makes a curve look less bad, it doesn't necessarily make it less bad for people. so if Spec is just like "hey the mortality curve will look less scary if we have more mild cases", i think unless there's a reason to think many mild cases are good news... well, the curve itself isn't the reason18:31
mefistofelesyou can get a fever and cough and difficulty breathing, and people would still not go to the doctor in South America, for example18:31
LjLi don't know, i guess18:31
LjLi think people kind of become more equal when under distress18:31
LjLJapanese are hoarding toilet paper18:32
LjLi don't usually imagine Japan that way18:32
mefistofelesI do18:32
LjLand i couldn't have imagined Italian locking up 50k people under threat of jailtime, two weeks ago18:32
LjLi'd have said "that's China, we don't do that"18:32
mefistofelesI imagine developed countries to be more in the panic side of things18:32
LjLbut now i'm even like "well... we had to"18:32
mefistofelesJapan falls into that18:32
mefistofeleseven if it could be worse in "developing" countries, paradoxically18:33
SpecLjL: but did you HAVE to burn them all?18:34
LjLSpec, wait what18:34
Specjokes18:35
LjLidgi though18:35
mefistofelesanyways, it may be a good opportunity to bring my old python code back18:35
Specabout the slippery slope to accepting authoritarianism in trade of safety18:35
LjLa section from https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Betrothed_(Manzoni)/Chapter_31 was recited on TV a day or two ago18:35
LjLit felt very creepy18:35
mefistofelesactually... I think I left it back in my desktop pc xD18:36
LjLSpec, look at those curves. the authoritarian countries are doing well, we are doing terribly (exclude Iran, they're fucked up)18:36
LjLthat isn't an endorsement of authoritarianism18:36
LjLbut if we're all dead we can't be a democracy anymore18:36
mefistofeleswait, what=18:37
mefistofelesfirst, what do you mean by "authoritarian countries"?18:37
SpecLjL: why don't you vote about it instead18:38
Spec:D18:38
mefistofelesLjL: why are you even talking about "all being dead", wtf?18:39
LjLsec18:40
Specmefistofeles: he fears the collapse of society due to inability to cope with worldwide pandemic18:40
Speconce you get to the large numbers and you oversaturate your healthcare system18:40
mefistofelesSpec: that's... very unlikely, to say the least18:41
mefistofelesactually, not even18:41
mefistofelesthat's just ridiculous18:41
LjLokay i'm sorry i made a hyperbole18:41
LjLbut look18:41
LjLpredictions not from me, but from expert, say that between 30% and 60% of the population is likely to get this virus within one year18:41
mefistofelescitation needed18:41
LjL15-20% of those who get it need a hospital eventually, or they risk a lot more18:42
LjLokay nevermind18:42
LjLthis is not wikipedia18:42
LjLyou are just wanting to say i'm wrong18:42
mefistofelesyes, it's worse18:42
LjLi'm wrong18:42
LjLyou give better data18:42
mefistofelesI mean, you cannot say "not from me, from expert" without citing18:42
mefistofelesbut still, you can continue, I was just saying that a citation is pretty much handy in this case18:43
mefistofeleshttps://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 so now the data I used before is in this repository, that's better18:48
LjLmefistofeles, citations are the handiest, but i have like 150 browser tabs open, many more that i have closed but were about COVID-19, and my brain is barely still in one piece... i need to avoid feeling overwhelmed18:50
theglassAll Leads to the Same Dashboard.18:51
mefistofelestheglass: I've always used the John Hopkins Dashboard, if that's what you mean18:52
theglassThat's precisely what I mean18:52
mefistofelesI found it to be the more easy to deal with and reproduce18:52
LjLmefistofeles, what i can say is from the WHO press conference of i think 28 february, they are *not* calling it a pandemic for precisely one reason: *some* countries are actually succeeding at containing it, and so even though other countries aren't and it seems unlikely it'll succeed globally, we have to keep trying. if we try, at least it will result in mitigation (although we also have to take direct mitigation actions, but without giving up on 18:52
LjLcontainment). the point of it all being, IF we call it a pandemic, that means we accept "everyone" will be infected. he didn't say a percentage in that one, he just said everyone for simplicity... and that's the WHO direct18:52
LjLmefistofeles, https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 is the repository Brainstorm used18:53
mefistofelesok18:53
LjLbut it's not always actually up to date with the JHU map18:53
LjLthey upload once a day or so18:53
mefistofelesalso flu season is finishing, that should help18:54
LjLat least to distinguish18:54
mefistofelesyeah, also helps to not flooding the hospitals with other diseases/cases18:56
mefistofelesand also should to denature the virus as wlel18:57
mefistofeleswell*18:57
LjLThe Ministry of Health announced new guidelines for reporting cases on 27 February in response to the previous blanket testing that caused case numbers to surge and inflamed public panic.[332] It would no longer report asymptomatic cases (swabs taken from patients which tested positive but were not showing symptoms) which counted as 40 to 50% of all reported cases at the time. These people would undergo isolation at home and would be followed up with new 18:59
LjLtests until they were negative.[333][334]18:59
LjLso - beware of Italy seeming to "go back to linear", mefistofeles / tinwhiskers18:59
LjLif you do any projections18:59
Speclol19:00
LjLalso Spec, i guess this answers, at least for italy, how many just don't have anything?19:00
Specasymptomatic cases no longer being reported19:00
Specso good19:00
LjLyes Spec my country is awful. to be fair, yours is arguably worse19:00
Speci mean, CURRENTLY19:00
Specit seems that way19:00
Speci should have taken pictures of the sun today19:01
mefistofeleswait, this is all expected19:01
mefistofelesprojections should still work19:01
mefistofelesasymptomatic cases are not commonly reported, the fact that Italy tested subjects without symptoms is actually an unexpected good thing19:02
LjLmefistofeles, even if you don't account for the criteria changing suddenly? look at that spike in China (in tinwhiskers's graphs, but also any of the other graphs). you can see it's an artifact, because they counted more cases using CT... but when you automatically calculate numbers from that, it may make them go haywire, no?19:02
mefistofelesthat cannot be said for China or others, fwiw19:02
mefistofelesnow they just cannot keep testing everyone that wants a test, also expected19:02
LjLanyway, considering in China they have included MORE cases by adding CT scan confirmed cases, i really cannot get behind my government's decision to count FEWER cases19:02
LjLmefistofeles, i have no idea how a CT scan manages to be easier to do that a swab test, but China is using that to augment the data19:03
LjLapparently around 95% of patients have abnormal CT scans, even with mild symptoms19:03
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 17:50 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0619:03
mefistofelesLjL: I don't think it's easier, it just another way when they don'thave enough kits19:04
python476are we dead yet ?19:04
python476aww no19:04
mefistofelespython476: lol19:04
LjLmefistofeles, i guess. two corridors is wider than one19:04
Specso CT scan is how they confirm? to see the lesions?19:04
mefistofelesLjL: also, that only works for severe/critical cases19:04
LjLSpec, they don't use it to confirm, they're now using it as an alternative test that's considered conclusive19:04
LjLSpec, so if you have the expected symptoms AND an abnormal CT scan, you are a COVID-19 case, even if you don't get a swab test19:04
Specyeah, i thought lesions only showed up in crit+19:05
LjLhmm i don't know about that19:05
LjLi read a preliminary paper... let me find it19:05
mefistofeleswell, last time I heard it was, sever/critical, not sure about things showing up in mild cases19:05
mefistofelessevere*19:05
Speci was trying to understand the mechanism of viral action19:05
Specand i found a whole world of fascinating micro machines :P19:05
Specif only contingo told me about them before19:06
fructosehttps://twitter.com/trvrb19:06
fructose"This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks."19:06
Speccryptic?19:07
contingohide-n-seek style19:08
Spec> It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China.19:08
LjLmefistofeles, i've found https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 but i'm not really sure it's the paper i had in mind. in this one, the relevant passage is "Of 975 CT scans that were performed at the time of admission, 86.2% revealed abnormal results." but that's admittedly a much milder claim, because 1) 86% < 95% and 2) of the CT scans *that were performed*19:08
Specdoes that mean this virus is not completely stable?19:08
Specwhat does the p-value represent?19:09
LjLthe virus's genome keeps changing, if that's what you're asking19:09
LjLmostly in ways that don't matter, probably19:09
LjLbut it's an RNA virus so it mutates a lot19:09
Specoh19:09
mefistofelesyeah, mutations have already been reported19:10
Speci thought that dr said reinfection was low because it was stable19:10
fructoseAnd "Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections."19:10
Specmutations mean reinfection chances increase, right?19:10
mefistofelesSpec: mutations doesn't directly mean reinfection19:10
Specoh19:10
Specit has to mutate in the right manner for our antibodies to not recognize?19:10
LjLSpec, yes19:10
LjLit has to change a protein19:10
LjLthe antigen19:10
mefistofelesif the mutations are missense mutations, it may be, but even then, it may even just "kill" the virus eventually.. who knows19:10
LjLin ways that makes your antibody fail to recognize it19:11
mefistofelessomething similar happened to SARS, kinda disappeared all of a sudden19:11
Speci see19:11
LjLmefistofeles, if only19:11
Specso it can accidentally evolve itself away?19:11
mefistofelesSpec: yes19:11
Specdoesn't seem like a very darwinian approach19:11
LjL*all* strains would do that?19:11
LjLseems unlikely to me intuitively19:11
mefistofelesI mean, viruses are not alive19:11
SpecLjL: maybe pray about it19:11
Specmefistofeles: i'm not clear on that19:11
LjLeh what does it matter whether they're by definition alive or not19:11
Specthis fascinating world of micromachines makes me question things19:11
LjLthey certainly undergo evolution19:11
mefistofelesthey are not choosing their own mechanisms to try to stay alive, they depend on the hosts19:12
contingoin some viruses that have been in the human population a long time (in evolutionary terms), strains have diverged to an extent you get complicated cross-immunity shit going down like infection by one strain is made a lot worse by having been previously infected with another strain19:12
mefistofelesso yes, they can change in a way that it makes it less prone to reproduce and eventually "die"19:12
LjLwe are not choosing our own mechanisms, mostly, evolution is19:12
SpecLjL: an RNA virus meaning it injects rna directly into host cells which then go to TheMachines which Produce proteins, and gets them to produce more virus?19:12
fructosemefistofeles: No19:12
fructosemefistofeles: Please stop spreading misinformation19:12
contingowith the present virus they are talking more about "biphasic illness" than reinfections I think19:12
LjLSpec, i am not going to pretend i know the mechanisms. i just know an RNA virus has more chances of mutation than a DNA virus19:13
contingobut I'm not cutting edge on this since I didn't read the news since last night19:13
Speccontingo: so it's not really gone when it's gone19:13
SpecLjL: the physical mechanisms of action at this level is actually far more intersting than any biology lesson i've ever had, ever19:13
Speci watched this -> https://www.ted.com/talks/drew_berry_animations_of_unseeable_biology19:13
Specand then 3 hours of university lectures about kinesin motor proteins :P19:14
python476who is in medicine / biology /19:17
python476?19:17
mefistofeleskinesin are nice indeed19:17
LjLSpec, i just tend to assume i can't possibly understand the intricate details of these things, because when i look at them, oh my god the complexity19:17
LjLi like to think i can understand many things at least at a high level19:18
LjLbut low level, tbh, python is hard enough19:18
SpecLjL: but when you look at them at this low level, it's not complex19:18
Specthe complexity is in the intermediate layers19:18
Specthe sum aggregate function of these simple things19:18
python476it's all about interaction combinatorial explosion ?19:18
Specbut to think...when people say "a protein" they mean a fucking lego block19:18
Specand we just make lego blocks all the time19:19
mefistofelesfructose: for RNA viruses and coronaviruses specially, the genome size puts some real limitations on evolution, regardless of the mutation rate and adaptability they have19:19
LjLSpec, :)19:19
Specand RNA are instructions to make complex physical lego blocks19:19
Specsome lego blocks have electromechanical properties, others are like, literally a special shape19:19
Specjust a shape19:19
python476ever heard of spiroligomers ?19:19
Specnooope19:19
Specpython476: i read wikipedia page and still have no idea19:21
mefistofelesSpec: that's a very simplified way of looking at them but sure, at some level that's a way to see them19:21
tinwhiskersLjL: btw, for Brainstorm to refer to a time series you can do, e.g. http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=france,italy19:21
Specmefistofeles: it's the BEST way to see them :)19:22
python476Spec: researcher use the spiroligomers as scaffold to craft proteins19:22
Specat least, a cursory understanding at that level of abstraction helps understand more complex layers19:22
python476the dude said it was like printing legos19:22
Specpython476: aah, that makes sense19:22
mefistofelesSpec: not really, proteins are far from lego blocks in many senses... so, it depends :)19:23
Specmefistofeles: well, more like custom fit' parts19:23
Specmefistofeles: my previous mental model was just "goop" and "random interaction" you see19:23
contingoI was drawn to working in viral genetics because they were so "neat" in the sense of genetic and structural concision, compared to everything else19:23
Specto see COMPONENTS that interact *in very physical ways*, with *specific movement/motors* is ridiculous19:23
contingobut of course they interact with those things in horribly complicated ways19:23
mefistofelesSpec: ok, I'd just call them proteins, having to find a easy analogy that works for every case is pointless... so just use the analogy for the case you want to show19:24
Specmefistofeles: yes, but calling them proteins didn't ever help me19:24
mefistofelesok19:24
Speclike, beef is proteins19:24
contingoso then I moved on to working on the messiest organisms I could find19:24
mefistofelesSpec: just mind that19:24
mefistofelesthey are not simple, at all19:24
Specmefistofeles: of course they aren't :P19:24
contingoI've heard of the lego block analogy to describe amino acids19:24
Specyes, but that's at an even lower level19:24
mefistofelescontingo: yes, that one is more likely19:24
Specand probably more accurate19:24
python476contingo: de Grey (SENS) often shows the "current biomedical systemic diagram"19:25
python476it's insane19:25
contingothan are then assembled into totally specified lego structures, the structures being proteins19:25
contingoor polypeptides19:25
Specyes, 'lego structures'19:25
Specis what i more meant :P19:25
contingobut then when you get into protein folding and primary to quaternary structure hierarchy and multiple-protein subunit biomolecules19:26
contingoyou have to have funky lego pieces19:26
python476duplo then19:26
Speclike this machine -> https://youtu.be/X_tYrnv_o6A?t=7619:26
Specis that just one protein, or a collection of proteins?19:27
Specthe dna-splitter-combiner thing19:27
LjLtinwhiskers, thanks, that's better than linking and telling people what to click19:27
contingothose are multiple proteins19:28
Specwhat i find awe-inspiring about that is it's just a little machine doing a thing19:28
contingoacting as a functional complex19:28
Specyeah, so RNA codes for various proteins out of that ...whatever that machine is19:28
Specand somehow they  combine to make that machine?19:28
mefistofelesSpec: you mean the DNA synthetase?19:28
Specmefistofeles: you gotta use smaller words when speaking to me19:28
SpecEIL519:28
mefistofelesthat's a complex of a several proteins19:28
Spechow do they get together?19:29
python476contingo: I was thinking of this https://www.sigmaaldrich.com/technical-documents/articles/biology/interactive-metabolic-pathways-map.html19:29
python476direct link http://www.metabolic-pathway.com/fullMap.html19:29
mefistofelesSpec: there are many ways, either electrostatics interactions, chemical bonds forming, allosteric interactions, etc.19:30
Specmefistofeles: well that's how they stick together19:30
python476what's allosteric ?19:30
Specmefistofeles: how do they GET together? is it bump-up-in-soup-and-match, or is it a purposeful action19:30
Spec%w allosteric19:30
BrainstormSpec, allosteric  — adjective: 1. (biochemistry,&#32;of an enzyme) That binds a compound on an inactive site and thus changes conformation in order to become either active or inactive — noun: 1. (biochemistry) An allosteric modulator → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/allosteric19:30
mefistofelesah yes, mostly it is random encounters19:31
mefistofelesSpec: but not always19:31
python476thanks19:31
Specso random encounters in soup by things that "want" to bind based on whatever binding mechanisms they have19:31
Specin contrast to the motors that purposefully ... move shit from place A to place B for reason C19:31
LjLSpec, have you found a lego-simplified explanation of how immune system gets to realize intruders are bad intruders in the first place, since at first, it doesn't recognize them at all19:31
Specsomeone should have showed me this video when i was very young :(19:31
LjLbut then it does19:31
LjL(sometimes too late)19:31
Speci would have gone into bio instead of IT :P19:32
LjLlol19:32
Speccell division/mitosis via microscope never interested me in the slightest19:32
contingometabolic pathways are tortuous19:32
Specmicromachines tho, wtf19:32
Speccontingo: haha, i have seen some maps19:32
mefistofelesSpec: I don't think that video were even possible back then xD19:32
contingopython476 just linked some19:32
python476Spec: aubrey de gray was a ~programmer at first19:32
Specmefistofeles: no, they are recent from being able to mark genes w/ fluorescents19:32
Specour understanding at this level at any rate19:32
LjLgood god19:33
contingoif you want to see ridiculously complicated systems in pure genetics I can give examples19:33
LjL"tortuous"19:33
LjLis not a word that describes that19:33
Speccontingo: ohh yeah, jeeze, impossible for me to undersatnd :P19:33
LjL(also why does that site want to know my LOCATION?)19:33
LjLi mean https://www.sigmaaldrich.com/technical-documents/articles/biology/interactive-metabolic-pathways-map.html19:33
SpecLjL: it uses google maps19:33
Specoh19:33
contingolike genetics of fungal mating type systems were designed to weed out genetics students of inferior ability or dedication XD19:34
LjLSpec, so after they broke the old google maps for most sites, including governmental ones, now they have a NEW google maps that always tries to access your location? :|19:34
Speccontingo: so like, zoom into this map, i look at a thing. this is just a molecule phase of a thing19:34
Speccontingo: is that a protein?19:34
Spec"P-Ribosylformimino 5-aminoimidazole-carboxamide-R P" - i assume it's a protein?19:34
python476or an insult19:34
Spechaha19:35
Speci recognize some of these words19:35
contingono...19:35
Spec:P19:35
Speccontingo: so just amino acid chain of some variety?19:35
Specwait, this is our FULL metabolic pathway system? all the things?19:36
Specso it includes the citric acid cycle somewhere in here?19:36
contingono, like there will be amino acids and proteins there probably, but it's mostly showing the pathways whereby chemicals are converted stepwise into other chemicals, by proteins and protein-like things, with energy inputs and outputs and stuff19:37
python476Spec: not sure, probably an approximation that can fit onto a websit19:37
Speccontingo: i see19:37
contingoI'm just guessing cos I don't want to look at a metabolic pathway map rn19:37
Spechahahaha19:37
Specthis is a neat fucking map19:37
Speci would watch a lecture of someone walking through the pathways :P19:37
mefistofeleslol, that's from merck19:38
contingothey probably have very inspiring visualizations of some of the core cycles now. then maps were cool but then it became a painfully dry subject for me as a student when I had to memorize details19:39
python476Spec: that would make a nice and long video series19:39
Specpython476: as long as it had pretty animations and kept it simple :)19:40
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 18:22 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, superati i 1500 contagi. Scuole chiuse anche in Friuli Venezia Giulia e a Pesaro - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/bfkaW919:40
Speccontingo: yes, memorizing details is not what i want out of that sort of thing19:40
Speci just like learning about complex systems and how they interact19:40
Speci don't care about the specifics :P19:40
mefistofelesit all depends on how detailed and meso/macroscopic you want to go, I guess19:42
mefistofelesSpec: if you like these machines, you will really like the ATP-syntetase19:46
mefistofelessynthase*19:47
Specmefistofeles: did you have a good animation about it? i did realize that was important to uhh, the motors19:48
Specthey take the ...something protein and break energy out of it on a regular basis, in order to step forward19:49
Specor something..like that19:49
mefistofelesSpec: sure, one sec..19:49
SpecI didn't quite understand how the "ATP" represents energy, or transfers it19:49
LjLSpec, it's just a bitcoin, come on19:49
contingoit's all in the bond19:49
Specadenosine?19:49
Specso it just Unbonds it and Gets...electrical potential from that action?19:50
LjLi should probably be reading this all instead of just interjecting jokes19:50
Spectbf, all this is very off topic :P19:50
mefistofelesSpec: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXpzp4RDGJI I guess this one should be good enough19:50
Specbut what i really wanted to see was the MECHANICAL ACTION of the covid virus and what it does :P19:50
Specmefistofeles: perfect19:50
Specugly little machine19:50
Specand people have mutations for these machines that are benign, or make them more efficient, etc19:51
LjL%cases greece19:51
BrainstormLjL: In Greece, there are 7 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 18:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.19:51
BrainstormLjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.19:51
Specmefistofeles: is my understanding that each one of these colored components are an individual protein?19:52
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 18:33 UTC: Coronavirus in Italia, le ultime notizie nel mondo - Corriere della Sera: Coronavirus in Italia, le ultime notizie nel mondo Corriere della Sera Coronavirus, in Italia superati i mille contagi (29 i morti) Corriere della Sera I casi di coronavirus in Italia sono più di mille Il Post Coronavirus in Italia: [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gXhzpo19:52
LjLevening ubLIX19:53
ubLIXhello19:53
LjLgoogle news news could be more newsy19:53
LjLthey aren't very newsy19:53
Specso ATP is just this phosphate + A Thingy That Gets Attached?19:54
ubLIXidk if i have ever actually tried google news19:54
mefistofelesSpec: those are the subunits which are commonly complexes19:55
contingotwo masks spotted in central London today19:55
LjLcontingo, fructose, you were asking about specifics of cases in Milan i think... i still don't have that, but this article https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_marzo_01/coronavirus-italia-positivi-sono-1577-34-morti-83-guariti-dati-1-marzo-215bf998-5be0-11ea-ae74-e93752023e91.shtml has it broken down by region at least19:56
contingoone worn draped around the neck19:56
LjLmaybe i'll find better19:56
contingothe other worn correctly19:56
Speccontingo: :P19:56
Specmefistofeles: so like, i sorta get it, this produces the ATP, but i don't understand why the rotating thing is rotating, what does the rotation serve? is that the mechanical energy required to catalyze the phosphate into atp?19:57
LjLhttps://www.corriere.it/salute/20_febbraio_25/coronavirus-mappa-contagio-italia-6ed25c54-57e3-11ea-a2d7-f1bec9902bd3.shtml may be helpful too (it's a map), but still by region only19:59
mefistofelesSpec: the rotation helps changing the conformation of the different subunits to bind the things it needs in the sequence it needs them, I guess... now, why does it have only 3 conformations/states, I don't really know... not sure if there's an answer for that20:00
mefistofeleswhy not 2? why not more than 3? maybe 3 is the most efficient way20:00
LjLbut i see some southern regions are already getting out of control with dozens of cases :\20:00
LjLwhy are bytes 8 bits? they weren't always, but the computers that used 8-bit bytes prevailed20:01
LjLsomehow20:01
LjLmaybe partly by chance20:01
Specmefistofeles: what does conformation mean in that context20:02
ubLIXLjL: survival of the bittist20:02
Spec^20:02
Specfor sure20:02
mefistofelesSpec: things like open/close or active/inactive20:02
ubLIX(I'll see myself out)20:02
SpecWORD20:02
LjLubLIX, :)20:02
Specmefistofeles: i see, so it does help set them up in whatever way they need to do the thing20:03
LjLfructose, contingo: oh, i found *it*: https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/ this is by province. now "Milan" proper is just a part of its province, but... it's pretty close20:03
LjLactually the province of Milan has been renamed to Milan Metropolitan Area20:03
contingoSpec there's a (fairly crude) visualization halfway through this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omzHESciaWg20:03
LjLjust to make it longer to write, but also, it's a more accurate description20:03
Specmefistofeles: and where exactly are these things located? ... in the mitochondria?20:03
LjLblack are single cases, red are multiple cases20:04
LjLwait no sorry20:04
LjLblack are deaths :(20:04
LjLif you scroll down there's also a graph of new cases per day20:04
contingoI'm sure there are higher production value ones somewhere20:04
BrainstormNew from Google News Italia at 18:52 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, la diretta – I contagiati sono oltre 1500, 41 le vittime di cui 31 in Lombardia - Il Fatto Quotidiano → https://is.gd/XpFZby20:05
LjLthere's also tables, where it says "In attesa di aggiornamento" that literally means "Waiting for updates", i believe it's basically cases that have not yet been reported by location20:05
LjLand there's a graph that shows MANY more than 20% are hospitalized20:05
mefistofelesSpec: yes, in mithocondria for eukaryotes20:05
LjLit's like... 45% hospitalized, 45% at home, 10% in ICU20:05
mefistofelesmitochondria*20:06
LjL(for Lombardy)20:06
LjLLombardy seems to have many more people hospitalized than Veneto, in proportion20:06
mefistofelesLjL: many more being hospitalized doesn't mean they have to, only that they can afford it20:06
LjLi hope that's just because we have more beds...20:06
mefistofelesjust like Korea can afford testing thousands without symptoms20:06
LjLmefistofeles, true, Lombardy is the "best" region in terms of healthcare20:07
LjLmefistofeles, we were also testing asymptomatic people, now... i think we still are, but not publishing them as part of the case numbers20:07
LjLi guess it's lucky it started in Lombardy and not in some region with terrible healthcare20:07
LjLsort of20:07
Spec%w eukaryotes20:07
BrainstormSpec, eukaryotes  — noun: 1. plural of eukaryote → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/eukaryotes20:07
Spec%w eukaryote20:07
BrainstormSpec, eukaryote  — noun: 1. Any of the single-celled or multicellular organisms of the taxonomic domain Eukaryota, whose cells contain at least one distinct nucleus → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/eukaryote20:07
Specam i a eukaryota20:07
contingoyes you is20:08
Specexcellent20:08
contingowhat are the worst regions in Italy for healthcare?20:08
Specso ATP itself just floats around inside the cell in which it is made?20:08
Specuntil it's consumed by a thing that needs its energy to do a thing20:08
contingoa lot of these energy producing cycles and pathways are "membrane-bound", i.e., all the reacting things are organized and transported on the surface of lipid membrances20:10
LjLcontingo, i'm going to say Calabria because there have been some pretty bad healthcare-related events there, but i'm betting also Campania and many other southern regions. theglass?20:11
LjLLatium is probably not great overall, either, but it has some very important hospitals like Spallanzani20:11
theglasswhat?20:11
LjLi doubt they have as many beds though20:11
LjLtheglass, your opinion on best/worst regions for healthcare20:11
LjLoh right, they were supposed to do that20:12
contingoin general the interior of a cell isn't quite just a soup where everything's floating around, cytoplasmic "space" in between obvious organelles is still quite structured by membranes, cytoskeleton fibres of various kinds, things and stuff20:12
Speccontingo: lipid membrane is just fancy fat bubbles?20:12
theglassI know just one20:12
LjLgood thing i was just about to use chanserv20:12
theglassand it's under a loat of pressure20:12
theglasslot*20:12
Speccontingo: yes, i am gathering that more and more...there's less soup and more structure, but still some soup20:13
theglassah haven't read contingo's question20:13
theglasswell it's hard to say which are the worst20:14
theglassusually you can tell what's best20:14
theglassbut anyway, south regions are known to be not so up-to-date20:15
theglassso to speak20:15
theglasswith severa exceptions btw20:15
theglassseveral*20:15
mefistofelesoh hell, it's raining...20:17
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 19:09 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0620:17
LjL34 :|20:17
LjLit still just said 29!20:17
LjLnot just the bot, these other numbers too20:17
contingoSpec yes but more in folded sheet than bubble form20:18
Specmefistofeles: but how does RAIN impact distribution and spread of COVID-1920:18
Speccontingo: ah, okay, yeah, i've seen some depictions like that20:18
contingoidk if topologically they overall all unfold into bubbles20:18
Speccontingo: i was also looking up RNA world theory because of ljl20:18
Specand a bit of that is speculation around these lipids20:18
LjLSpec, he loathes abiogenesis things!20:18
contingoah as LjL will tell you20:19
contingolol20:19
Specwelcome back ChanServ20:19
Speccontingo: :P20:19
python476Spec: I more concerned about IRAN than RAIN20:19
python476#rimshot20:19
Speciran doesn't seem like its in a great situation20:19
mefistofeleslol20:19
contingoI mostly like studying extant diversity and what happened once things already started getting going20:20
contingopost-LUCA stuff20:20
SpecLUCA?20:20
python476Toto shall release a new song called Irun20:20
Speccontingo: my interest, i think, is in MACHINES, hahaha20:20
python476"I bless the rains down in Irania"20:20
contingolast universal common ancestor20:20
Specand to find out it's just a whole world of micro machines :P20:20
Speccontingo: oh, have we identified such a thing?20:21
Speccontingo: and did that change with that recent discovery or an organism without mitochondria (is that the recent thing we found?)20:21
LjLtheglass, oh... on february 24 they upped the checkpoints around the red zone by bringing in the army, did you know that20:21
contingoyeah20:21
LjLand still... i believe 18 people tried to flee20:21
contingono20:21
LjL(and someone made a video and was arrested)20:21
LjL(these days everyone self-incriminates by video)20:21
ubLIXthat Dr Campbell youtube fellow said that at various shrines, in Iran, they have this habit of rubbing their hands all over a "blessing wall", then rubbing their faces to transfer the blessing - I think by now they must finally have stopped doing this20:22
contingono prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) have mitchondria anyway so I'm not sure what you mean20:22
contingooh, you mean the myxozoan... it's just the first animal showing secondary loss of mitochondria20:23
contingothere are other exceptional eukaryotes without mitochondria20:24
LjL%wa 34/169420:24
BrainstormLjL, Wolfram|Alpha (34/1694): Decimal approximation: 0.020070838252656434474616292798110979929161747343565525383... → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=34%2F169420:24
theglassI read about it, LjL20:24
LjLthat's... less than 3%, even less than 2.5%, good news maybe?20:24
LjLubLIX, i saw that, i wouldn't bet on it20:25
Speccontingo: oh right, it showed a LOSS of it20:25
LjLubLIX, he's not a doctor in medicine by the way, he's a retired nurse, says so in the about page. nothing wrong with that, but, just saying, i assumed MD when reading his name and the subject matter20:25
contingothe LUCA is ancestral to all those groups20:25
fructosehttps://nextstrain.org/ncov20:25
Speccontingo: is LUCA ancestral to virus?20:26
LjLcontingo, just am i wrong in remembering that some of the earliest organisms we know about, or infer the existence of, probably already had a cell and DNA inside it, about as long ago as the earth has existed?20:26
SpecWKFO20:26
LjLfructose, ok, that definitely goes into the topic list20:27
ubLIXinteresting, LjL. i hadn't bothered to look at the about page20:27
LjLalthough i am not sure i have a clue how to interpret it20:27
Specthese things are strains that have been sequenced and show mutations of some sort?20:27
contingodifferent groups of viruses have independent origins, some of them might predate the LUCA20:27
Specindependent origins!20:28
mefistofelesthat's a nice visualization indeed20:28
contingooh that's rad20:29
LjLfructose, * [Nextstrain philogeny](https://nextstrain.org/ncov) of the virus strains by area and various other criteria20:29
LjLsound good as a description of that?20:30
Speccontingo: what is your Concern about this covid business?20:30
Specshould I assume covid is outside my doorstep if i live in LittleKorea in USA?20:30
WKFOi'm sorry, wanted to say something to me Spec?20:31
SpecWKFO: i did not, i only wanted to exclaim your name20:31
fructoseLjL: No20:31
LjLfructose, just in time, i was changing the topic20:31
LjLcan you provide something better?20:32
SpecWKFO: you're an astronomer?20:32
twomoonhi ljl , is it okay to use betadine mouth rinse five times a day?20:32
WKFOSpec: amateur20:32
LjLtwomoon, uh, i've no idea20:32
SpecWKFO: me too!20:32
twomoonany have experience with this? someone recommended betadine as a way to kill bacteria and viruses20:32
LjLtwomoon, does it contain alcohol? or chlorexidine?20:32
WKFOgreat20:32
fructoseLjL: "Strain" is too strong of a word. There are variations that are helpful in tracing it, but aren't a distinct strain20:32
twomoonit contains iodine, neither alcohol nor chlorhexidine20:32
SpecWKFO: can i pm you like, 5 images :P20:33
LjLfructose, better if i just change it to "variants" then?20:33
twomooni was thinking i could get an iodine overdose by using it too much20:33
WKFOSpec: of course go ahead20:33
LjLtwomoon, it should probably be okay, but respect whatever the label says20:33
LjLif it says twice a day, use twice a day20:33
twomoonok20:33
fructoseLjL: I'd just say "genomic epidemiology"20:33
LjLfructose, i feel that's a bit cryptic for laymen, but then, so is the site, so okay20:34
fructoseLjL: As it should be20:34
mefistofelesfructose: what's the x-axis distance in that dendogram?20:34
mefistofelesoh I see, time20:35
mefistofelesso not actual phylogenetic distance20:35
LjLfructose, well, this channel is not exactly a "let only those in the know know" kind of place20:35
fructoseLjL: No, but simplifying it for laypeople has more risks than benefits20:36
LjLfair20:36
LjLfructose, do you know of any preliminary studies on any phenotype difference in this variations yet? (namely why are we dying more)20:36
LjLi guess i should look at whether the italian variant is anything like the iranian variant20:37
ubLIXwhy derange your microbiome's natural homeostasis at all, though (twomoon), unless told to do so by a doctor?20:37
LjLbut... which italian variant are they calling italian?20:37
LjLthe initial three cases in rome, or the actual clusters now20:37
mefistofeleshmm interesting20:37
twomoonyeah good point ublix20:37
mefistofelesthe Italy one has a missense variation20:37
twomoonbut mouthwashes are pretty common aren't they? they don't affect gut microbiome afaik20:37
LjLmefistofeles, a what20:37
fructoseLjL: No. My first guess would be differences in testing and data transparency, rather than changes in the virus.20:37
mefistofelesLjL: a variation that changes the amino acid20:38
LjLalso it places the circle in Rome... while for France, it places it in specific places i tihink20:38
ubLIXthey affect your mouth and throat's microbiome though20:38
twomoonhe means missense mutation20:38
fructoseLjL: Though changes can happen20:38
LjLmefistofeles, ugh, does it? that gives me bad vibes20:38
LjLfructose, what about what mefistofeles just said?20:38
ubLIXand you will inevitably swallow some small quantity20:38
LjLmefistofeles, also are you saying it based  on that page or20:38
mefistofelesLjL: in that page fructose pasted, yes20:38
LjLIran hasn't isolated the genome?20:39
fructoseLjL: A single amino acid substitution isn't enough to make those kinds of guesses20:39
LjLwell, has it happened in other "variations"?20:40
contingoSpec, idk, as I said before it's fun to prep anyway, you can buy loads of long-life Korean stir fry kits20:40
mefistofelesLjL: yes, it has20:40
twomoonmissense variation could be within the accepted level of error of the dna sequencing system. is this true mefistofeles ?20:41
LjLmefistofeles, i'm sorry i am unable to figure out how you figured that out from the page20:41
mefistofelestwomoon: depends on how they sequenced it, not sure if this is curated or just raw data20:41
Speccontingo: :)20:42
mefistofelesbut I'd think these should use some NGS with high depth, so a single variation should be solved20:42
mefistofelesI mean, even considering errors20:42
mefistofelesI mean, the genome size is fairly small, so you should have a nice coverage and depth for this20:43
tinwhiskerscool. ok20:45
twomoonok thx mefistofeles keep teaching me20:47
mefistofeleswell, gtg20:50
twomoonstay safe20:50
mefistofelessure20:50
Tobi[m]What’s the room alias?20:52
Tobi[m]Can’t set an custom alias20:53
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 19:37 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: UK fears of undetected cases grow as 12 more test positive → https://is.gd/usqOjz20:54
pwr22So apparently the person who left the UK for Shenzhen and then tested positive - they were working in Bristol20:56
pwr22Which is where I live 🤦‍♂️20:56
Specbristol!20:56
Tobi[m]<Tobi[m] "What’s the room alias?"> ???20:59
Tobi[m]Give me a link pls20:59
contingoBristol, nice21:00
contingoI don't know what the room alias link would be21:00
Tobi[m]#something :Matrix.org I guess. Admins should see it as they didn’t allow custom alias names.... for whatever reason21:01
contingothis is ##covid-19 on freenode, an IRC network. I don't know how it connects to matrix21:02
contingobut I'm sure LjL will tell you after dinner21:02
Specoh, ljl probably connects them21:03
Specvia magic21:03
petersjt014[m]I think it's relayed thru @appservice-irc:matrix.org21:03
twomoonshould i get an ultraviolet sterilizing light bulb?21:04
twomooni'm just trying to think of things i can get that have a lot of bang for the buck21:04
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 19:56 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0621:06
Tobi[m]twomoon: not helping with the virus21:07
Spectwomoon: i was wondering about that21:09
SpecTobi[m]: no?21:09
pwr22Tobi #covid-19:matrix.org21:09
Spec%data USA21:09
BrainstormSpec: Sorry, USA not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.21:09
petersjt014[m]%date United States21:10
Spec%data United States21:10
BrainstormSpec: Sorry, United States not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.21:10
Spec%data The United States of America21:10
BrainstormSpec: Sorry, The United States of America not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.21:10
petersjt014[m]%data United States21:10
Brainstormpetersjt014[m]: Sorry, United States not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.21:10
Spechaha21:10
Tobi[m]<Spec "Tobi: no?"> I’ve copies some of the WHO advises: https://kabi.tk/2019-ncov/21:10
Tobi[m]Also about the light21:11
pwr22%data us21:11
Brainstormpwr22: In Australia, there are 26 cases, 1 deaths (3.8% of cases), 15 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 20:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.21:11
Brainstormpwr22: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 6.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries).21:11
pwr22Lol21:11
Specerrrr21:11
Specthis says "UV lamps should not be used to sterilize hands or other areas of skin as UV radiation can cause skin irritation"21:12
Specso UV lamps can sterilize our doors/things we touch inside the house, etc21:12
Spec?21:12
pwr22%data uk21:12
Brainstormpwr22: In UK, there are 36 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 8 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 20:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.21:12
Brainstormpwr22: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area.21:12
Specwhat's the fancy word for surfaces that spread virus21:12
ubLIXfomites?21:12
Specfomite21:12
Specsurely we can sterilize the fomites w/ UV lamps? or does UV not break down the virus?21:12
Specthis page does not clear tha tup21:13
twomoonhi Spec21:13
Spechello twomoon, would you like me to share with you a picture i have of our one moon?21:13
Tobi[m]Just copied from WHO, let’s investigate that21:13
twomoonUV LED lamps (or flourescent ones) take forever to kill bacteria but i suspect they kill viruses much faster21:13
Specwhat?21:14
ubLIXsterilising surfaces with UV lamps sounds a lot more labour intensive than just using 70% alcohol or bleach solutions21:14
Spectwomoon: i thought UV was fast and used in "real time" water purification systems21:14
twomoondepends on the intensity21:14
SpecubLIX: well, spraying alcohol everywhere is worse for your lungs than waving a light around :P :P21:14
twomoonthe low power UV purification systems don't kill all the bacteria and they still take several minutes to work21:15
ubLIXsure, but you don't need to spray it21:15
Spectwomoon: i see21:15
twomoonthey just reduce the bacteria below an acceptable treshold21:15
Tobi[m]Afaik for bacteria but not viruses21:15
SpecubLIX: yeah, i guess21:15
Speci'm mostly thinking in a disinfect a house sort of situation21:15
petersjt014[m]Fun fact: you can kill viruses with mechanical/crushing force.21:15
petersjt014[m]It's extremely hard.21:16
twomoonhah21:17
Specpetersjt014[m]: lol21:17
ubLIXyou may have three wishes21:17
Specalright, thanks for entertaining my basic level questions, i'll be back with more later!21:19
petersjt014[m]> * Spec rubs his house21:20
petersjt014[m]Soooo remember the part where I said 'hard'?21:20
petersjt014[m]Yeah ur house not gonna be there anymore21:20
ubLIXLjL: interesting take: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article21:43
ubLIXspecifically: "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."21:51
twomoonhi mefistofeles21:58
mefistofeleshey twomoon21:58
RougeRhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2020/mar/01/ben-jennings-uk-response-coronavirus-outbreak-cartoon#img-122:20
python4762022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-7O-fIYSsY22:45
LjLbleh i wanted to read the sciency discussion above but i closed the tab so now it means all the nicks are non-colored making it much harder to read22:51
LjLanyone have a post-hoc nick colorer for logs ;(22:52
LjLtinwhiskers, looks like you had higher (unofficial) numbers before but now they've went back to lower22:56
LjLlike: 7 cases greece, now back to 422:56
LjL(italy also, but much higher numbers so i don't remember exactly, but we are at 1700ish according to TV)22:56
tinwhiskersah. interesting22:56
LjL41 dead in italy going by the TV22:56
LjL%cases Italy22:56
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 21:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data.22:56
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 38.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).22:56
LjL29 dead was yesterday's number, we were at 34 (or 36?) before it jumped to 4122:57
LjLwhile... no new recoveries :(22:57
LjLi am *straining* not to think of a bad reason for these facts22:57
LjLif you know what i mean by strain22:57
tinwhiskershrm. Looks like my server has been banned from connecting to the better of the sources :-(22:57
LjL...22:58
tinwhiskersItaly shows as 1694 there22:58
LjLthat matches22:58
LjLhow often were you polling?22:58
tinwhiskersevery 30 mins22:58
LjLwow22:58
LjLthey're a bit... i dunno22:58
LjLnot nice22:58
LjLtinwhiskers, did you send an identifiable useragent?22:59
python476we're going back to 1694 population levels ?22:59
tinwhiskersoh, no. I can get it via wget still. Must be something about my request header22:59
LjLtinwhiskers, but does the wget have the same useragent22:59
tinwhiskersI'll need to look into it23:00
LjLtinwhiskers, i can offer alternative ip addresses for the polling, potentially, although we'd have to figure out how to set that up23:01
tinwhiskersNah, this is fixable23:01
LjLwell if they are not actively hindering you, i suppose23:01
LjLi want to hope they aren't because this is not about proprietary weather forecasts or something23:02
tinwhiskersWell, they've changed something that is now refusing my connection, but it doesn't refuse a standard wget request so they're blocking something that they weren't previously. I just need to figure out why my user agent looks different to wget.23:06
tinwhiskersbut it's more likely they are watching so they may take further action23:06
LjLtinwhiskers, what are you using to scrape? python=23:09
LjLin wget you can pass --user-agent=blah23:09
LjLbut obviously you need to know what your original useragent is23:09
tinwhiskersok, that's going again... for now.23:15
twomoonwhat were you trying to scrape?23:16
LjLtinwhiskers, have you established the aetiology?23:18
LjLiow what was the issue23:18
python476let's make the web page realtime websocket based with xml-rpc messages exchanges through reverse proxy application servers23:19
python476sorry, my cat walked on my laptop23:19
LjLmhm that was the idea23:19
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 22:19 UTC: What happens if coronavirus spreads in Australia?: Covid-19 is spreading around the globe but Australia has not yet had a case of community transmission. That is likely to change → https://is.gd/HPXFFP23:30
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 22:26 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm0623:43
fructosepython476: My cat frequently pukes after eating. Not as gross as XML, but I sympathize.23:46
python476puke-schema.org23:49
python476i swear if I do a language, Ill call the prototype pukelang23:49
ubLIXhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/ER31t2_WoAAIL45?format=jpg&name=small23:59
LjLgroan23:59

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