Albright | I'm sure by some standards he's not wrong. We've got a lot more government now than we did back during Spanish flu. | 00:14 |
---|---|---|
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:58 UTC: Washington state officials confirm man in his 50s has died from coronavirus: Officials confirm patient who died was man – not a woman, as Donald Trump mistakenly said – who suffered from chronic illness → https://is.gd/80fGAb | 00:23 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:32 UTC: Trump fends off criticism of 'hoax' remark after first US coronavirus death: Man dies in Washington state as president says he used word hoax ‘with regard to Democrats and what they were saying’ → https://is.gd/PwKfdC | 00:48 |
tinwhiskers | %data france | 00:49 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas, France, there are 57 cases, 2 deaths (3.5% of cases), 11 recoveries as of 2020-02-28T20:13:09. | 00:49 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 15.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 00:49 |
tinwhiskers | %data germany | 00:51 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas, Germany, there are 48 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of 2020-02-28T00:13:18. | 00:51 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 00:51 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, do i read the think you said is a clusterfuck, or will it give me panic | 00:54 |
tinwhiskers | Nothing you don't already know | 00:54 |
LjL | that isn't necessarily related to the panic triggers | 00:54 |
LjL | but you wouldn't know my panic triggers | 00:55 |
LjL | it's a bit silly to ask others to vet links for me, but hey | 00:55 |
tinwhiskers | it's not ideal | 00:55 |
LjL | the whole situation is a tad less than ideal | 00:55 |
LjL | from the point of view of humans anyway | 00:56 |
LjL | rest of planet might be sighing in relief | 00:56 |
tinwhiskers | fair | 00:56 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, hey you already did a lot, but do you think it would be feasible to add fatalities and recoveries to the graphs | 00:57 |
tinwhiskers | I just did deaths. I guess I could add recoveries | 00:57 |
LjL | (and hospitalizations would be nice too, but no data source seems to aggregate that...) | 00:58 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, ah, "cool" | 00:58 |
LjL | i looked but only a couple hours ago | 00:58 |
LjL | seriously what's the deal with italy and iran | 00:58 |
LjL | aside from starting with i, why are we all dying | 00:59 |
LjL | i'm a bit concerned by that | 00:59 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah. They don't look too good. | 00:59 |
LjL | Korea isn't doing the same curve | 00:59 |
LjL | and how is Japan managing to stay linear? | 01:00 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, treatment seems to be better there?? | 01:00 |
tinwhiskers | all very interesting questions | 01:00 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, well our system is not *yet* overwhelmed from what i hear, so if this is when we're doing good... | 01:00 |
spybert | Japan is divided into islands, easy to isolate | 01:00 |
LjL | but have they done that? i haven't heard of them doing it | 01:00 |
LjL | also, Italy's cases are still mostly staying in Lombardy | 01:00 |
LjL | but going creepily exponential anyway | 01:01 |
LjL | (to be fair Lombardy is about 10 million people, i.e. Sweden) | 01:01 |
LjL | rest of country is 50 | 01:01 |
LjL | () | 01:01 |
tinwhiskers | It sure looks exponential at this stage, but then China looked that way and got things under control. | 01:03 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah, i'm just wondering how are other countries (mainly Japan) keeping it linear. when you look at countries where it's mostly *flat*, i'm like okay, they're keeping their cases all under control, and no new cases are sprouting up | 01:04 |
LjL | but japan is getting a serious increase | 01:04 |
tinwhiskers | Although to be fair, the speed at which Italy is increasing is waaaay faster than in China | 01:04 |
LjL | oh don't be fair | 01:04 |
LjL | lie to me if you have to | 01:04 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, I've always wondered what's different about Japan. If I was to guess I'd say they are keeping it under control and most new cases are from people bringing into the country but it is not yet spreading through the population. | 01:05 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, are their borders still wide open? | 01:07 |
LjL | 250 is not just a few cases | 01:07 |
LjL | that's not counting the ship, right? | 01:07 |
LjL | that would make it a lot more | 01:07 |
tinwhiskers | I really have no idea. That's why I'm just guessing | 01:07 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, pretty sure "Japan" no longer includes any of the Diamond Princess cases. | 01:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:44 UTC: Washington state officials confirm man in his 50s has died from coronavirus: Officials confirm patient who died was man – not a woman, as Donald Trump mistakenly said – who suffered from chronic illness → https://is.gd/80fGAb | 01:12 |
LjL | Brainstorm still posts news? who knew | 01:14 |
LjL | it's almost like it misses most of the feeds and just posts some randomly | 01:14 |
LjL | yeah the italian dead too are all >80yo suffering from chronic illnesses | 01:14 |
LjL | ... if you listen to italian news. i'm scared to verify | 01:14 |
tinwhiskers | ah | 01:16 |
tinwhiskers | btw, if you want recent totals for Brainstorm you can grab them from http://offloop.net/covid19h/unconfirmed.csv | 01:16 |
tinwhiskers | They are updated every 30 minutes. | 01:17 |
LjL | Brainstorm, reload covid | 01:18 |
Brainstorm | SyntaxError: invalid syntax (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 43) | 01:18 |
LjL | oh right, that thing | 01:18 |
LjL | %cases Italy | 01:20 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries. | 01:20 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:21 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, you had to make me change Country/Region and Provice/Area into just "Name", and remove the last update time! | 01:21 |
LjL | unacceptable | 01:21 |
LjL | by which i mean, thanks | 01:21 |
tinwhiskers | ah, yes. It's very flat. | 01:21 |
LjL | the duality was actually giving me iffy problem earlier | 01:22 |
LjL | iffy meaning i wrote an if statement that looked reeeaaal bad | 01:22 |
tinwhiskers | you can get the time it was updated at http://offloop.net/covid19h/lastupdate.txt but the format is pretty goofy | 01:22 |
LjL | uh yeah that looks a little weird | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | I should really fix that | 01:23 |
LjL | but i'll solve that using people's human eyes | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | give me a sec | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | is that any better? | 01:24 |
tinwhiskers | That's still kinda weird | 01:25 |
LjL | i was going to just use the second line | 01:25 |
LjL | it's unambiguous | 01:25 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 01:25 |
LjL | %cases italy | 01:26 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 00:20 GMT. | 01:26 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:26 |
LjL | is this a new one | 01:37 |
Spec | %source covid | 01:54 |
Brainstorm | Spec, source code for module 'covid' can be found at https://paste.ee/p/mdj5B | 01:54 |
Spec | i knew it was manufactured | 01:54 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 01:55 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: hello | 01:56 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: ok, I added in the recoveries graph as well | 01:56 |
tinwhiskers | Hi Spec | 01:56 |
Spec | i saw your map | 01:56 |
Spec | it's very mappy | 01:56 |
tinwhiskers | map? | 01:56 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, I know the graphs look like the came from the 80's but that how I like my graphs :-) | 01:58 |
tinwhiskers | And, no, there isn't a dark theme :-/ | 01:58 |
LjL | hello good peoples | 01:59 |
LjL | i already talked to each of you independently but hello as a group | 01:59 |
Spec | man, i hate so many people | 02:02 |
Spec | https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/27/us-workers-without-protective-gear-assisted-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/ | 02:02 |
Spec | hilarious, "they weren't showing any symptoms so it's not a problem" | 02:03 |
LjL | Spec, some people, many people, seem to be in denial STILL about symptomless transmission | 02:03 |
LjL | all the general denial is worrying... from my family, zoom out to the whole planet | 02:04 |
LjL | still same level of general denial | 02:04 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:20 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus latest updates: US state declares emergency as Australia records second Iran-linked case → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 02:26 |
Spec | > Coronavirus prompts France to ban gatherings of more than 5,000 | 02:36 |
Spec | is france still having them yellow vest protests? | 02:36 |
LjL | 5000, lol | 02:37 |
LjL | let's organize protests of 4999 people | 02:37 |
LjL | each in one square in paris | 02:37 |
contingo | LjL, do you know the number of cases in Milan itself? | 02:42 |
LjL | contingo, theoretically... near zero? | 02:42 |
contingo | but nonzero, right? | 02:42 |
LjL | excluding all the people in the hospitals, which is pretty much everyone | 02:42 |
LjL | contingo, well i'm not going to pretend 50k people in commuter suburbs haven't spread it into milan | 02:42 |
LjL | that seems... unlikely | 02:42 |
LjL | but | 02:43 |
LjL | really i don't know the official numbers | 02:43 |
LjL | they are probably trying to avoid saying it | 02:43 |
contingo | no I wasn't implying anything I was just wondering about confirmed cases | 02:43 |
LjL | they are never mentioning numbers in more detail than "Lombardy" | 02:43 |
LjL | and Lombardy is about... i don't know, 500 last i heard, but now it's already >1000 in total, so probably 750 or so | 02:43 |
contingo | hmmph | 02:43 |
LjL | but they never say "Milan" | 02:44 |
LjL | i feel it would be bad for morale if they said "Milan" ;( | 02:44 |
LjL | it's already pretty bad for morale to watch TV shows without audiences | 02:44 |
LjL | empty studios, just the main people and then they interview guests via the internet | 02:44 |
LjL | pretty chilling | 02:44 |
LjL | (many RAI programmes are broadcast from Milan, though most are from Rome) | 02:44 |
LjL | school closed in all of Lombardy+Veneto for at least another week | 02:45 |
LjL | i know i'm not even close to answering your question | 02:45 |
Spec | seems like i should invest in more hand sanitizer | 02:45 |
LjL | but it might give you hints as to what they THINK is occurring | 02:45 |
LjL | Spec, or make it. we bought some that our pharmacy started making, it seems kosher | 02:46 |
LjL | Spec, isopropyl (thanks contingo), water, glicerol | 02:46 |
LjL | maybe something else | 02:46 |
fructose | Spec: You'd better hurry. I'm hundreds of miles from the nearest case and hand sanitizer is sold out even at Costco | 02:46 |
LjL | yeah | 02:46 |
LjL | face masks were sold out here weeks before the first cases even appeared | 02:46 |
fructose | I managed to get some and now that they're unavailable everywhere, people are trying to say they are ineffective | 02:47 |
Spec | fructose: i just noticed it's quite expensive on amazon | 02:47 |
Spec | isopropyl and glycerin? | 02:48 |
fructose | And eBay | 02:48 |
LjL | uh well the surgical ones are ineffective depending on what one means by being uneffective | 02:48 |
contingo | ethanol sanitizer is better for skin contact but that will be the kind sold out | 02:48 |
fructose | LjL: Yes, I have N95s | 02:48 |
Spec | i have a few bottles of isopropyl | 02:48 |
LjL | fructose, i don't think anyone is seriously saying N95s are "ineffective" | 02:48 |
LjL | if anything, they say they are clearly not 100% effective on their own, and they need to be used correctly | 02:48 |
LjL | which i'm sure you already know | 02:48 |
Spec | N95s are effective if used and fitted properly | 02:48 |
fructose | LjL: https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/1233725785283932160 | 02:49 |
contingo | that's a very telling tweet | 02:49 |
LjL | fructose, eh, okay, but i think those warnings kind of assume surgical masks, because they are intended for a public who doesn't have a clue | 02:49 |
fructose | LjL: No, those warnings are just wrong. | 02:50 |
LjL | and, true about doctors needing them | 02:50 |
LjL | not for themselves | 02:50 |
fructose | Which is extra nice, given it's coming from the operational head of public health in the US | 02:50 |
LjL | well i think it's just... yes, technically inaccurate, but not "wrong" | 02:51 |
LjL | i mean, people have broken in a hospital here to steal surgical masks and sanitizer | 02:51 |
LjL | and i say "a" because that's the one i know about | 02:51 |
LjL | doctors and nurses definitely need to have access to these things | 02:51 |
LjL | if they're sold out, or stolen out, it's tragedy for everyone | 02:51 |
LjL | they protect *patients* | 02:51 |
contingo | the office of surgeon general is a political appointment who is now reduced to opening tweets with "Seriously people-" | 02:52 |
Spec | $90 for 2 liters of hand sanitizer | 02:52 |
Spec | is that ok? | 02:52 |
Spec | seems like it's 300% more expensive than normal | 02:52 |
fructose | LjL: That's why it's wrong, because it's an obvious lie. | 02:54 |
fructose | It's more likely to make people panic than reassure them | 02:54 |
fructose | "Why is the surgeon general saying they don't work and that hospitals need them?" | 02:54 |
LjL | that's a reasonable argument | 02:55 |
LjL | i have some similar perplexities | 02:55 |
Spec | contingo: gimme dat sweet recipe | 02:55 |
contingo | I haven't perfected it, I'm experimenting with various hydrocolloids XD | 02:56 |
Spec | i should just mix some glycerin into isopropyl until it is okay in texture right? | 02:56 |
Spec | online recipes are full of aloe vera instead of glycerin | 02:57 |
contingo | yeah but I'm concerned about even using isopropyl a lot as a skin sanitizer | 02:57 |
Spec | tea tree, cinnamon oil, etc | 02:58 |
Spec | :( | 02:58 |
Spec | well, depends on what "a lot" is | 02:58 |
Spec | contingo: you're worried of drying out your hands? | 02:58 |
contingo | yeah the literature is vague on that point so far | 02:58 |
Spec | i also have a large quantity of mineral spirits and acetone | 02:59 |
Spec | but those are probably worse than isopropyl or witch hazel | 02:59 |
Spec | :) | 02:59 |
contingo | isopropyl is toxic in ways ethanol isn't | 02:59 |
contingo | yes, they would be | 02:59 |
contingo | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10670080 | 02:59 |
Spec | contingo: yes but i touch mineral spirits directly with my hands...regularly | 02:59 |
Spec | :( | 02:59 |
contingo | so this lady was basically soaking herself in towels of isopropanol for six months but then was fine after three days | 03:00 |
contingo | of stopping doing that | 03:00 |
Spec | contingo: well shit. | 03:00 |
Spec | that's a lot tho | 03:01 |
Spec | i assumed isoprop is safer than acetone | 03:01 |
Spec | contingo: well, of all things, i don't have any ethanol, lol. | 03:02 |
contingo | I think it's significantly safer and less of a skin irritant than acetone. all my conventional gel sanitizer is ethanol, but I have limited quantity | 03:02 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:50 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: Australia and US record first deaths: Australian man in his 70s was passenger on Diamond Princess cruise ship; France and Italy restrict public events as cases spread. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 03:03 |
Spec | contingo: i can probably buy ethanol tho. | 03:03 |
contingo | oh, can you? | 03:03 |
Spec | 1 liter of $16 | 03:03 |
Spec | lab grade, $23 for half liter | 03:03 |
contingo | 99% or? | 03:03 |
Spec | 200 proof | 03:03 |
Spec | so 99% ya | 03:04 |
Spec | 5 gallons for $100 | 03:04 |
Spec | High quality ethanol, 100 percent purity (denatured: 90 percent ethanol, 4.5 percent ipa, 5 percent np acetate) | 03:04 |
Spec | lol | 03:04 |
Spec | i thought it said "cannot be used for combustion" and i was like 'LIKE HELL IT CANT BRO" | 03:04 |
contingo | do you not have to be a lab to order it? I only amassed my reserve of ethanol when I was working in labs a lot | 03:04 |
Spec | contingo: > Thank you, your order has been placed. | 03:05 |
Spec | guess not | 03:05 |
Spec | i can always use ethanol in my array of BasementChemicals :) | 03:05 |
Spec | contingo: ok, i'll get it in 2 days, then i make secret recipe | 03:06 |
contingo | well done | 03:06 |
contingo | I can't find any info on the legality there | 03:07 |
contingo | maybe I can get it | 03:08 |
Spec | why wouldn't it be legal? | 03:08 |
Spec | it's just ethanol | 03:09 |
Spec | and it's denatured | 03:09 |
contingo | oh denatured | 03:09 |
Spec | that'll be fine for hand sanitizer :P | 03:10 |
Spec | i think you do have to be a lab to get non-denatured ethanol | 03:10 |
contingo | what is it denatured with? | 03:10 |
contingo | like, it might not be preferable to propanol depending on the denaturing ingredients | 03:11 |
Albright | YouTuber Mister Metokur has done some good streams ever since the epidemic started covering news, rumors, etc. He tends to highlight some of the more incredulous rumors sometimes, so take them with a grain of salt, but they're pretty entertaining outside of that. Here's the one he did today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbab5Z7jaII | 03:11 |
LjL | not done yet watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rOTz9duXwo but it seems like a reasonable exposition of a doctor's stance at least... | 03:13 |
LjL | %title | 03:13 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: COVID-19 Sat 29 Feb - YouTube | 03:13 |
Albright | I'll queue that one up. | 03:13 |
LjL | Spec, contingo, have you settled on a recipe? i'm not caught up | 03:13 |
contingo | I was spoiled with a supply of 99.99% pure reagent ethanol until recently so never really looked into denatured alcohol. My thinking was at least the isopropanol I buy is reagent grade. But there might be denatured ethanols that are more suitable, or less suitable | 03:14 |
contingo | no, sorry | 03:15 |
Spec | contingo: isopropyl :P | 03:15 |
LjL | contingo, about isopropyl toxicity, isn't soaking your hands in it a bit different from using gels meant to evaporate almost instantly? | 03:15 |
Spec | contingo: and n-propyl acetate | 03:16 |
contingo | yes | 03:16 |
Spec | so what you'd expect to find in hand sanitizer anyways | 03:16 |
Spec | > Alcohol-based versions typically contain some combination of isopropyl alcohol, ethanol (ethyl alcohol), or n-propanol | 03:17 |
contingo | I'm just a pure ethanol snob | 03:17 |
Spec | yeah :P | 03:17 |
Spec | i'm not a lab! :P | 03:17 |
Spec | contingo: i guess i could go to my friend's fathers' house and use their still :P | 03:17 |
contingo | also I have soaked my hands in it before by mistake a few times | 03:18 |
Spec | The Diamond Princess sounds like a nightmare dystopian science experiment tbh | 03:18 |
Spec | contingo: it's not so bad, it evaporates quickly | 03:19 |
contingo | and I'm A-OK | 03:19 |
Spec | i think lady that was soaking it in towels to keep contact is amoron | 03:19 |
Spec | the badfor you solvents are the ones that dont' evap quickly and sink into/through your skin, as i understand it | 03:19 |
Spec | pretty sure air-drying with isoprop or ethanol will be fine, as long as you do so sparingly and not constantly, and be careful about ingesting any | 03:20 |
Spec | and open cuts/etc | 03:20 |
contingo | I also have quite a lot of this product and haven't really investigated the thing that's in it: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B012O6V35S | 03:21 |
Spec | contingo: what is ACE2 | 03:22 |
Spec | huh, Contains water, salt and hypochlorous only. | 03:22 |
contingo | angiotensin converting enzyme (version 2) | 03:23 |
Spec | what's it do? | 03:24 |
LjL | contingo, ugh, complicatedness | 03:25 |
LjL | In their comment there is an evident mistake, and, as Akamatsu stated in another comment [2], ARBs act on Angiotensin 2 receptors (AT2), which are not the same as ACE receptors. Akamatsu suggests then the possible use of ACE-inhibitors as potentially effective drugs to prevent COVID-2019 infection, although this class of drugs may worsen respiratory symptoms like cough. | 03:25 |
LjL | But even this statement is incorrect, since the ACE2 receptor, which is different from the ACE receptor and was discovered in the 2000s, is insensitive to classical ACE inhibitors [3]. | 03:25 |
LjL | this is one of the rapid responses to the rapid response... | 03:25 |
contingo | I also have a lot of iodine dressing pads | 03:25 |
LjL | there are a bunch of letters complaining about the suggestion of ACE2 inhibitors / ARBs | 03:26 |
LjL | scan through https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m406/rapid-responses | 03:26 |
LjL | The authors seem to have made an obvious mistake. They misinterpreted ACE2 with angiotensin II receptor which are totally different molecular entities. The putative receptor for the new coronavirus (Covid-19) is ACE2, but NOT angiotensin II receptor. Therefore, it is unlikely that ARBs such as telmisaltan and losartan will be effective in inhibiting the binding of Covid-19 to ACE2. Instead, however, ACE inhibitors such as perindopril erbumine may be | 03:26 |
LjL | effective as a preventive measure, while we must be aware that ACE inhibitors in class may cause dry cough as an adverse side effect that may make it difficult to distinguish the cough caused by the lung infection. | 03:26 |
Spec | contingo: i think i have a bottle of iodine, but i'm not 100% on that | 03:27 |
Spec | i ought to though! | 03:27 |
contingo | scanning | 03:27 |
contingo | LjL that is an interesting range of informed responses that I will have to read properly after my thing tomorrow | 03:30 |
contingo | as you say, complicatedness | 03:31 |
LjL | indeed | 03:32 |
LjL | contingo, the gist of why they think the virus comes from bats is because something in bats is very similar and because bats have been shown to be a reservoir of cov before, right? | 03:33 |
contingo | yes | 03:33 |
contingo | it's just phylogenetics, sequence homology | 03:33 |
LjL | Spec, i have a pinched nerve from too much typing these past few days :( | 03:33 |
LjL | well not pinched nerve, i don't know what it is | 03:33 |
LjL | maybe a pinched nerve | 03:33 |
contingo | some sources say the reservoir species is a bat species but the transmission event may have been via a pangolin | 03:35 |
LjL | Spec, he suspects cases in Iran are "underreported to put it mildly" | 03:36 |
LjL | contingo, yeah i've heard of that | 03:36 |
LjL | i don't know why they think that though | 03:36 |
Spec | contingo: a pangolin | 03:39 |
Spec | how do they taste | 03:39 |
contingo | like red herrings | 03:39 |
LjL | heh | 03:40 |
contingo | the pangolin report was due to a miscommunication where one lab thought another had determined >99% similarity between The Virus and a pangolin virus, putting it closer than the closest known bat coronavirus | 03:40 |
LjL | contingo, apparently the UK is about to swab everybody who comes in "with breathing difficulties", no matter anything else, contacts with China etc | 03:41 |
contingo | but it was just 99% similarity at a small, highly conserved stretch of genome (coding for the receptor binding domain), not the overall genome | 03:41 |
LjL | that will probably test the theory there are a lot of mild cases everywhere... | 03:41 |
contingo | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w | 03:42 |
Spec | contingo: ah, so no proof of origination yet? | 03:42 |
Spec | pangolins do look a little murderous | 03:43 |
contingo | the closest match to SARS (the original) was from a civet cat, I didn't know that | 03:43 |
contingo | they're adorable | 03:43 |
contingo | Spec, if you're into eating threatened southeast asian wildlife, mousedeer have some of the tastiest meat on the planet, but please don't be | 03:44 |
contingo | https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6f/Mouse-deer_Singapore_Zoo_2012.JPG | 03:45 |
LjL | aw | 03:45 |
Spec | contingo: lol | 03:46 |
Spec | the cuter the tastier | 03:46 |
LjL | ;( | 03:46 |
Spec | contingo: do you think this is realistic | 03:46 |
Spec | spread from animal? | 03:46 |
Spec | i guess it's the simplest explanation | 03:47 |
contingo | that is the established thing that happens | 03:47 |
contingo | HIV, ebola, swine flu, bird flu | 03:48 |
Spec | contingo: how come this feels scarier than swine or bird flus | 03:49 |
contingo | generally these things have much lower mortality in their reservoir species | 03:49 |
Spec | why is there a higher emotional reaction | 03:49 |
contingo | well first because the world health / virology community was poised for the emergence of a new SARS, which had a 10% mortality rate I think | 03:50 |
contingo | so it's in that class of scary emergent viruses | 03:51 |
contingo | second, although turning out to be more like 2% lethal than 10%, this one has a higher transmissibility and could infect the whole planet quite quickly | 03:53 |
LjL | contingo, and 15% need hospitalization, or death rate may get much worse | 03:53 |
LjL | i'm very worried about that part | 03:54 |
LjL | especially if it "infects the whole planet" | 03:54 |
contingo | yes and then all those pandemic scenarios play out where you get more and more deaths cos healthcare and other public services are completely overloaded | 03:54 |
LjL | and here they are by default | 03:56 |
LjL | maybe that puts us at an advantage, nothing to lose ;( | 03:56 |
Spec | contingo: what sort of pandemic scenario do you envision | 03:58 |
Spec | should i be stocking up on gasoline and guns? | 04:00 |
LjL | Spec, you can't buy guns! just like you can't buy ethanol | 04:02 |
LjL | and like all of us, soon, probably won't be able to buy gasoline | 04:02 |
LjL | and yet, when i asked my dad if we had fully fueled our car... | 04:02 |
LjL | he was like "are you insane" | 04:02 |
LjL | but gas stations were closed pretty quickly in Wuhan | 04:02 |
Spec | i can still buy guns :P | 04:03 |
Spec | and, like, gas | 04:03 |
LjL | Spec, do you "buy" your gas with guns | 04:05 |
LjL | if not, will you soon | 04:05 |
Spec | yes | 04:05 |
Spec | or, at the least, we trade bullets | 04:05 |
LjL | "oh you've got THAT bullet? i'm missing just the one!" | 04:06 |
LjL | *BANG* | 04:06 |
contingo | I don't really envision Spec | 04:09 |
contingo | but having prepper stuff is fun anyway | 04:09 |
contingo | you'll need some small denomination silver and gold for when the barter economy converges back on standard mediums of exchange after the apocalypse | 04:10 |
LjL | so... wait... my bitcents won't work? | 04:11 |
contingo | lots of bleach and batteries | 04:11 |
contingo | lol | 04:11 |
contingo | not beyond the thunderdome | 04:13 |
Spec | a google employee tested positive?! | 04:16 |
Spec | not even google is safe?!!!! | 04:16 |
contingo | my friend at google is an extra fastidious hand washer | 04:32 |
contingo | there must be some mistake | 04:32 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: oh, my comment earlier about the rate of increase in Italy compared to China was wrong. Thankfully it's a bit slower in Italy than at the same time in China. | 04:45 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but it looks very similar to Korea if you toggle it on and off | 04:46 |
LjL | except for the deaths :( | 04:46 |
tinwhiskers | That's what I thought too, but looking more closely in excel South Korea is a bit slower than China was also. | 04:48 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, if you find any good or even vaguely decent news for italy, i could use them, i'm a bit short | 04:49 |
LjL | also masks | 04:49 |
tinwhiskers | heh. roger that | 04:49 |
tinwhiskers | that *was* my good news | 04:50 |
tinwhiskers | hey, it's not as bad as China was!!! :-) | 04:50 |
LjL | fair | 04:50 |
LjL | Spec, i'm watching this one now https://youtu.be/TpXoY_1EG8Y some unpleasant toilet truth at the start | 04:50 |
fructose | tinwhiskers: China tried to suppress information about infections, so I'm not sure it's good to base models off their data | 04:55 |
tinwhiskers | well, that may be true. I can only compare to the data available. | 04:56 |
LjL | Spec, also he keeps coughing ;( | 04:56 |
tinwhiskers | Italy is progressing more slowly than the *reported* data from China so if anything that casts Italy in an even better light. | 04:57 |
fructose | tinwhiskers: I'm just more interested in Italy and South Korea as a result. One thing to hope for is that China's suppression actually contributed to its infection rate | 04:58 |
tinwhiskers | Not sure what you mean | 04:59 |
fructose | More public information about the disease could lead to more people taking precautions and effectively lowering the transmission rate to something managable | 05:00 |
fructose | Not that I'm actually optimistic about that, but one can hope | 05:00 |
tinwhiskers | ah. I see | 05:01 |
tinwhiskers | Actually I think given the authoritarian nature of the Chinese government we'll find we're not able to control the spread as well as the Chinese appear to have done. | 05:10 |
LjL | i wouldn't be optimistic about that at all wrt italy | 05:10 |
LjL | we don't have anything like an authoritarian culture of obedience | 05:10 |
LjL | and people won't know they are in danger until it hits them in the head | 05:11 |
LjL | hell i took the metro three days ago | 05:11 |
LjL | and i'm here saying this | 05:11 |
LjL | imagine others | 05:11 |
tinwhiskers | I heard a piece from a British doctor saying currently in Hubei one person is allowed to leave each household for 2 hours, once every 2 weeks. People breaking the rule are imprisoned (or worse?). I doubt we'll have such good control elsewhere. | 05:11 |
fructose | tinwhiskers: I share that suspicion, but it may be a combination... the suppression of information exacerbated it, but the centralized response is more than most of the world can expect | 05:12 |
Spec | tbf china's numbers are low compared to total pop and is stabilizing | 05:12 |
tinwhiskers | yes, for sure. Denial didn't help... USA anyone? | 05:12 |
LjL | i'm not even sure italy is being completely transparent with the numbers | 05:12 |
LjL | i read some concerning things | 05:12 |
LjL | unclear, albeit concerning | 05:12 |
LjL | Spec, China is taking these draconian measures though, are you? are you ever going to? | 05:13 |
LjL | those are hard questions to answer | 05:13 |
Spec | yeah | 05:13 |
LjL | well the first one is easy | 05:13 |
LjL | the second one depends on how close to apocalypse we get | 05:13 |
Spec | looooool | 05:15 |
Spec | u-rey-nulls | 05:15 |
Spec | u-rye-nulls* | 05:15 |
LjL | you're a null | 05:15 |
tinwhiskers | Although it might not be obvious by looking, Italy is increasing faster than South Korea. It's just a few extra days behind. | 05:19 |
spybert | You can be sure that mortuaries in the US will take advantage of the situation and charge double. | 05:21 |
spybert | cremation will become more popular than ever | 05:21 |
tinwhiskers | no doubt. The price gauging is already starting... free market... supply and demand... greed. Take your pick. | 05:22 |
tinwhiskers | err. gouging? | 05:22 |
spybert | A traditional funeral and burial is now about $30k | 05:22 |
spybert | They will pop it to 60+, no doubt | 05:23 |
tinwhiskers | ouch | 05:23 |
Spec | that's crazy expensive | 05:24 |
twomoon | wow i was just thinking about cemetary plots | 05:27 |
spybert | The numbers of dead I see now, even in China, don't require mass burials | 05:30 |
LjL | i think they're being burned | 05:31 |
LjL | cremated, sorry | 05:31 |
spybert | sure, less than 3000 | 05:32 |
Spec | when does an infected person become no longer contagious? | 05:34 |
pwr22 | When they are no longer detectably infected? | 05:35 |
fructose | Spec: I don't think that's well-understood. There are cases of re-infection too. | 05:38 |
Spec | are there, though? | 05:40 |
fructose | Yes. There may be something else going on, but those are cases described publicly. | 05:44 |
tinwhiskers | I don't thin kit's known. It could be a reinfection. There is some sort of protective mechanism that the lungs provides that only lasts about 30 days. But it could also just be that those patients relapsed after getting well enough to test negative or they had several false negative tests. | 05:55 |
Spec | hmm | 06:21 |
tinwhiskers | "The Chinese have reported 14% of their recovered cases as being reinfected or starting the second phase of a biphasic disease. They have stated they are monitoring all recovered patients. (Just as Japan has reported one patient who is reinfected) The WHO said in their press conference yesterday that they do not know if it is biphasic or if after you have the disease there is little immunity generated." - source not stated | 06:46 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:33 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand record first deaths: Australian man in late 70s was passenger on Diamond Princess; two more doctors have die in China. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 06:48 |
tinwhiskers | %cases iran | 06:54 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In Iran, there are 593 cases, 43 deaths (7.3% of cases), 123 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 05:30 GMT. | 06:54 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.4% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 25.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 06:54 |
tinwhiskers | %cases italy | 06:54 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 05:30 GMT. | 06:54 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 06:54 |
pwr22 | %cases uk | 07:36 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: In UK, there are 23 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 8 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 06:30 GMT. | 07:36 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 07:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 07:10 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: "Lecca la reliquia challenge" In Iran impazza una nuova sfida → https://is.gd/XApIrY | 08:26 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:25 UTC: Sunak must rethink budget to deal with coronavirus threat, say experts: Former advisers and ministers say outbreak makes job for chancellor harder Chancellor Rishi Sunak will have to rethink key parts of the budget next week because of growing fears that the spread of the coronavirus will trigger a global economic [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RzQYaU | 08:38 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:33 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: the key scientific questions answered: What are the statistics on surviving Covid-19? When might a vaccine be ready? Find out here Coronavirus Covid-19 has now spread to six continents – only Antarctica is currently free of infections – and has triggered more than 85,000 cases of respiratory [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/bOEySy | 08:50 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:49 UTC: Coronavirus latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand record first deaths: Australian man in late 70s was passenger on Diamond Princess; two more doctors have died in China. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 09:03 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:34 UTC: What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?: What are the symptoms caused by the virus from Wuhan in China, how does it spread, and should you call a doctor? → https://is.gd/r6LI2A | 10:41 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:43 UTC: Coronavirus: Matt Hancock considering 'all options' for containing virus in UK – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 10:53 |
theglass | <Brainstorm> New from Reddit (test) at 07:10 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: "Lecca la reliquia challenge" In Iran impazza una nuova sfida → https://is.gd/XApIrY | 11:02 |
theglass | please tell me this is not true | 11:02 |
mefistofeles | theglass: it's Iran, what can you say... religious fanatics all over | 11:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 09:52 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, l'assessore lombardo al Welfare: "Richiameremo in servizio infermieri e medici in pensione" - TGCOM → https://is.gd/69gnjE | 11:05 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:32 UTC: Coronavirus: Hancock says shutting down cities may become necessary – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 11:42 |
Timvde | %data Belgium | 12:06 |
Brainstorm | Timvde: In Belgium, there are 1 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 11:00 GMT. | 12:06 |
Brainstorm | Timvde: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 12:06 |
Timvde | Hey, that's wrong, we've got a second case | 12:06 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:52 UTC: Coronavirus: Matt Hancock says shutting down UK cities may become necessary – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 12:06 |
petersjt014[m] | %help | 12:07 |
Brainstorm | petersjt014[m]: Hi, I am LjL's bot! Say %modules or %commands to me in private to see my features. | 12:07 |
petersjt014[m] | %commands | 12:07 |
Brainstorm | petersjt014[m], all exposed commands: act, anagrams, ask, bible, book, bug, commands, count, dick, echo, evaluate, geo, grammar, greet, help, language_code, language_identify, languages, last, link_get, link_put, lojban, modules, morphology, onelook, phonology_change, ping, pronunciation, search, seen, spell, spell2, stock [... want %more?] (try %help <command>, or %modules for a directory) | 12:07 |
petersjt014[m] | %dick | 12:08 |
Brainstorm | AttributeError: 'NoneType' object has no attribute 'rstrip' (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/dick.py", line 85, in dick) | 12:08 |
petersjt014[m] | oh dear | 12:08 |
Timvde | %dick foo | 12:09 |
Brainstorm | Timvde, Korean: foo - 1. (혐오를 나타내어) 체, 제기랄!; (통신상에서 말을 걸 때) 실례합니다.2. 푸(프로그램 예(例) 따위에서 제1의 변수에 상투적으로 쓰는 이름; 제2 이하는 bar, baz 따위). // foo-foo 미국·영국 [fú:fù:] - 바보, 멍청이 // foo yong 미국식 [ˈjɔːŋ] play 영국식 [ˌfuːˈjɒŋ] - 부이용(중국식 [... want %more?] | 12:09 |
Timvde | but yea, that could use a None check :P | 12:10 |
petersjt014[m] | With. None/null/nil, the million dollar mistake. >:( | 12:10 |
petersjt014[m] | *Eugh | 12:11 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:22 UTC: Matt Hancock: ministers to publish coronavirus 'battle plan' for UK: Health secretary says options from closing schools, banning large gatherings and isolating cities being considered → https://is.gd/RxCgJu | 12:31 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:39 UTC: Coronavirus: Matt Hancock says shutting down UK cities may become necessary – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 12:55 |
theglass | %data italy | 13:28 |
Brainstorm | theglass: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 12:00 GMT. | 13:28 |
Brainstorm | theglass: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 38.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 13:28 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 12:35 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, ultime notizie: nuova vittima a Piacenza, i morti salgono a 30. Oltre 1100 i contagi. Il sindaco di Codogno: «Dal governo schiaffo immeritato» - Open → https://is.gd/Hps8gG | 13:44 |
LjL | hi | 13:48 |
LjL | i see y'all've been playing with the bot | 13:48 |
LjL | Timvde, what are you doing here, go back to not worry about this | 13:49 |
LjL | or worry sensibly | 13:49 |
Timvde | LjL: Second case here | 13:49 |
Timvde | We're officially in phase 2 | 13:49 |
LjL | Timvde, oh, welcome then, not much of a party, but here, have some cookies, barely coughed on | 13:54 |
Timvde | ... thanks? :P | 13:55 |
LjL | Timvde, i am a worrier, are you a worrier | 13:55 |
LjL | (not the same as warrior) | 13:55 |
Timvde | Nah, not really | 13:56 |
LjL | cool, you'll be better off | 13:56 |
LjL | take some precautions though before it's late | 13:56 |
LjL | without worrying | 13:56 |
LjL | some things are almost impossible to buy now here | 13:56 |
python476 | hi again | 14:01 |
LjL | American Airlines suspend all flight with Milan | 14:01 |
python476 | when doom over ? | 14:01 |
python476 | y'all seen this map https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967 ? | 14:03 |
python476 | pollution changes since covid popped | 14:03 |
LjL | Hah | 14:08 |
LjL | Scarygood | 14:09 |
python476 | covid will cool the planet | 14:09 |
python476 | between deaths and reduced economic activity | 14:09 |
LjL | Yes the planet will benefit | 14:11 |
LjL | But selfish as it is, I still don't want to die | 14:11 |
python476 | how surprising | 14:12 |
python476 | LjL: do you have a weak immune system ? | 14:13 |
LjL | python476, kinda | 14:13 |
LjL | but my family has worse chances | 14:13 |
python476 | oh ok | 14:13 |
LjL | sister is on immunosuppressants, parents are elderly, dad smokes | 14:14 |
python476 | where do youlive ? | 14:14 |
LjL | Milan | 14:14 |
python476 | so I can notify covid not to visit you | 14:14 |
LjL | heh | 14:14 |
python476 | he's very polite | 14:14 |
LjL | bit too late | 14:14 |
python476 | hi neighbor | 14:14 |
LjL | salut | 14:14 |
python476 | <= francese | 14:14 |
LjL | i saw the IP | 14:14 |
python476 | oh you knew ! | 14:14 |
LjL | how about... | 14:14 |
python476 | hehe | 14:14 |
python476 | francese is spanish ? | 14:14 |
LjL | francese is italian | 14:15 |
LjL | frances is spanish (with an accent perhaps) | 14:15 |
python476 | ha right | 14:15 |
python476 | anyway | 14:15 |
python476 | how are things near you | 14:15 |
LjL | but, like, you've annoyed us a lot at Ventimiglia with sending refugees back to us and suspending Schengen for the perennial etat d'urgence | 14:15 |
LjL | and NOW you say you're keeping it all open? | 14:15 |
LjL | you're a bit backwards | 14:15 |
LjL | close the borders ffs | 14:15 |
LjL | python476, i'm good and so is my family for now, just not psychologically | 14:16 |
LjL | we're not quarantined, but we're about 50km from the quarantined area | 14:16 |
python476 | I have no idea what you're talking about | 14:16 |
LjL | and it's obvious there must be undetected cases in Milan | 14:16 |
LjL | python476, not following EU politics much then i guess? | 14:16 |
python476 | LjL: could say that | 14:16 |
LjL | fair | 14:16 |
LjL | it just makes people annoyed anyway | 14:16 |
LjL | i do it because i'm sort of a masochist i think | 14:17 |
python476 | are there a lot of people coming from france since covid ? | 14:17 |
LjL | no | 14:17 |
LjL | it's the other way around | 14:17 |
LjL | people are leaving Italy and infecting people in other countries already | 14:17 |
LjL | i am usually all for keeping Schengen open, always | 14:17 |
LjL | but... this is a very unusual situation | 14:17 |
python476 | yeah totally | 14:17 |
LjL | "very unusual" is an understatement i feel | 14:18 |
python476 | unforeseen effect of european union freedom of movement | 14:18 |
LjL | python476, well, i mean - 50000 people near me are quarantined. they can't leave. | 14:18 |
LjL | this is scary, if i were one of them, i'd be very scared | 14:18 |
python476 | "good for the economy and the infection !" -- some minister in 1950 | 14:18 |
LjL | but it's necessary | 14:18 |
python476 | true | 14:18 |
LjL | so if we can "lock" people into towns *within* italy... surely other countries wouldn't be crazy to close their borders with us, either | 14:18 |
python476 | do you have enough food around ? | 14:18 |
LjL | yes, people hoard supermarkets because people are stupid... but they are restocking | 14:19 |
python476 | LjL: i can't speak for the borders but news in france are talking about more and more lockdowns | 14:19 |
LjL | what we can't buy are face masks, sanitizers... and i guess some other things | 14:19 |
LjL | python476, in italy we are sort of not adding new lockdowns, for now | 14:19 |
LjL | actually they have relaxed the rules in Lombardy a little | 14:19 |
LjL | which i disagree with | 14:19 |
LjL | they've reopened pubs & clubs | 14:19 |
LjL | for a week they kept them closed after 18:00 | 14:20 |
LjL | but "the economy must run" | 14:20 |
LjL | Milanese aperitivo is important, clearly, but also... a huge source of infection :\ | 14:20 |
LjL | python476, have you had a look at the links in the channel topic by any chance? | 14:20 |
python476 | no | 14:20 |
python476 | only one | 14:21 |
python476 | offloop.net/covid19/ | 14:21 |
LjL | good, that's the one i wanted you to look at | 14:21 |
LjL | have you played with the buttons? | 14:21 |
LjL | disable china, then enable/disable Korea repeatedly | 14:21 |
LjL | and look at how nearly-identical italy looks | 14:21 |
LjL | unfortunately, with more deaths | 14:21 |
LjL | %cases france | 14:22 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In France, there are 104 cases, 2 deaths (1.9% of cases), 12 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 13:00 GMT. | 14:22 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 14.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 14:22 |
LjL | oh well shit. | 14:22 |
LjL | yesterday there were like... only a very few cases? | 14:22 |
LjL | %cases germany | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Germany, there are 117 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 13:00 GMT. | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | LjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 14:23 |
LjL | Germans don't die o.o | 14:23 |
LjL | good for them | 14:23 |
python476 | I'm a dev, I don't click buttons | 14:23 |
LjL | lol okay | 14:23 |
python476 | I read the page source directly !:D | 14:23 |
LjL | python476, well the page is made by a member of this channel | 14:23 |
LjL | so maybe talk to them if you have ideas | 14:23 |
python476 | i think it's fine as it is | 14:24 |
python476 | only need is to show it to more people | 14:24 |
python476 | because plague.com is broken 50% of the time | 14:24 |
LjL | well some of the other links in the topic are good | 14:24 |
LjL | but some are in chinese | 14:24 |
LjL | they have *many* graphs, they'd probably be interesting | 14:24 |
python476 | Brainstorm: any idea about India "real" count ? | 14:24 |
LjL | but i have no idea what they say, especially because a lot of the characters are part of images, so google won't translate them | 14:25 |
LjL | python476, no one does :\ | 14:25 |
python476 | which is a problem | 14:25 |
python476 | LjL: it might be a a bad idea but right now I'd like a google map with house of infected people :D | 14:25 |
LjL | lol | 14:25 |
python476 | or a covid variant of tinder | 14:25 |
LjL | Spec, i bet America may do that | 14:25 |
python476 | "13 infected hot girls near you, swipe left, swipe left fast" | 14:26 |
LjL | well i don't even use apps because i'm fixated with privacy and open source | 14:26 |
LjL | so i don't have a girlfriend or a boyfriend or even a cat | 14:26 |
python476 | there's an app to date cats ? | 14:26 |
LjL | i'm sure if i could think of one, someone made one | 14:27 |
python476 | true | 14:27 |
LjL | do you have any opinion on Brassens | 14:28 |
LjL | i might start a Brassens playlist on youtube | 14:28 |
LjL | just for a cynicism infusion | 14:28 |
python476 | Brassens lol | 14:28 |
python476 | accidental IRC Frenchness | 14:28 |
python476 | I don't know much, the few songs I know I like | 14:29 |
LjL | python476, there are many songs of his translated into Milanese by Nanni Svampa (you won't know him), and some into Italian by Fabrizio De André (i think everyone ought to know him, but alas) | 14:29 |
LjL | Brassens said the Svampa translations are some of the ones he liked best | 14:30 |
LjL | (there have been Brassens translations in many languages) | 14:30 |
python476 | I recently heard about an italian guy who had a 40 year long career and sold millions of albums, apparently all italy loves him .. and I never heard of him until last month | 14:30 |
python476 | surprising how music markets can be | 14:30 |
python476 | Fashion tips for 2020: https://imgur.com/a/aI65p4o | 14:31 |
LjL | yeah... but Italian pop music was very popular for a time, and translated into many languages. but today, some of those translated songs are famous in their respective countries, but few people know they came from Italy | 14:31 |
LjL | those are not great songs though, they were just "hits" in the 60s/70s | 14:31 |
LjL | python476, in a TV show last night, with nearly-empty studioes because it was broadcast from Milan and the rules say there can't be an audience and they can't invite people from other cities now... an actor recited a piece of https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Betrothed_(Manzoni)/Chapter_31 | 14:32 |
LjL | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QiXvQ98aJw | 14:32 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: The Best of Georges Brassens (full album) - YouTube | 14:33 |
python476 | wow | 14:33 |
LjL | ah no, i wanted the specific song | 14:33 |
python476 | internet is gonna love covid | 14:33 |
LjL | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQRgym8IDGM | 14:33 |
python476 | facetime use +300% | 14:33 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: Georges Brassens - La mauvaise réputation - YouTube | 14:33 |
LjL | his R is funny | 14:34 |
python476 | "L'auvergnat" is one of the nicest | 14:34 |
LjL | oh yes | 14:34 |
LjL | but i don't want to get all sad yet | 14:34 |
python476 | LjL: these R are a lost art nowadays | 14:34 |
python476 | "everybody points their finger at me, except the crippled obviously" | 14:35 |
LjL | :) | 14:35 |
LjL | python476, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IEnEDeJUjI you won't understand this but please listen anyway... the lyrics are here https://www.musixmatch.com/it/testo/Nanni-Svampa/Canzon-per-el-rotamatt if you want to give it a try | 14:36 |
python476 | aight | 14:37 |
python476 | what does 'el rotamatt' means ? | 14:38 |
LjL | python476, it is a word for someone who deals with broken things | 14:40 |
LjL | fixes them, uses them, gets them from people | 14:40 |
LjL | not really something that exists anymore as such | 14:41 |
LjL | %w auvergnat | 14:41 |
Brainstorm | LjL, auvergnat — adjective: 1. Of, from or pertaining to the region of Auvergne; Auvergnese — noun: 1. A dialect of the Occitan language, spoken in Auvergne → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/auvergnat | 14:41 |
LjL | hm | 14:41 |
LjL | %w rotamatt | 14:41 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Norwegian Bokmål spelling suggestions: ro tamatt, ro-tamatt, rota matt, rota-matt (aspell/nb) | 14:41 |
LjL | i think there's an equivalent italian word but i can't remember it | 14:41 |
python476 | oh like fixing people's problem I suppose | 14:42 |
LjL | also unfortunately i'm not fluent in Milanese. my parents are only fluent in understanding it but they don't speak it, and my grandparents (aside from being dead) were "ashamed" to speak it to their children, or me | 14:42 |
LjL | but i understand the song | 14:42 |
LjL | sometimes there are words i don't quite get | 14:42 |
LjL | python476, another i like (translated or original) is la mauvaise herbe | 14:43 |
LjL | %w erba matta | 14:43 |
python476 | https://twitter.com/search?q=%23covid | 14:43 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Italian spelling suggestions: erba matta (aspell/it) | 14:43 |
LjL | lots of american tweets for me there | 14:44 |
python476 | yes | 14:44 |
python476 | panic at the mall | 14:44 |
LjL | ah :\ | 14:44 |
LjL | as i said yesterday, cultures level down to a minimum common denominator in these cases | 14:45 |
LjL | even people in Japan are emptying supermarkets | 14:45 |
LjL | and those are... Japanese | 14:45 |
python476 | yes there's not enough wise people | 14:45 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:30 UTC: Coronavirus: confirmed case in Shenzhen 'had been working in UK' – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand report first deaths from coronavirus as two frontline doctors in China die and bans are put in place on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 14:46 |
python476 | survival instincts is not much social | 14:46 |
python476 | LjL: a little surprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMrDJLPlq20 | 14:46 |
LjL | not quite similar to Brassens | 14:47 |
python476 | you're exagerating | 14:47 |
LjL | just joking | 14:47 |
python476 | ;) | 14:47 |
python476 | LjL: the producers of this band are italian | 14:48 |
python476 | I so thought this was full american disco/rnb | 14:48 |
python476 | but no. | 14:48 |
LjL | yeah... i do have a very disco song in mind lately though | 14:48 |
LjL | %yt forever young alphaville | 14:48 |
pwr22 | Twelve more positive cases in the UK | 14:48 |
Brainstorm | LjL, t1TcDHrkQYg: Forever Young by Alphaville! Official video~ Best quality~ → https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1TcDHrkQYg | 14:48 |
python476 | pwr22: stop bragging | 14:48 |
LjL | hi pwr22 | 14:48 |
pwr22 | BBC News - Twelve more coronavirus cases confirmed in England | 14:49 |
pwr22 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991 | 14:49 |
pwr22 | Hi | 14:49 |
LjL | pwr22, apparently france and germany are really spiking now | 14:49 |
pwr22 | <Brainstorm "LjL, t1TcDHrkQYg: Forever Young "> A good song | 14:49 |
LjL | pwr22, i don't think i asked you where you're from | 14:49 |
pwr22 | UK | 14:49 |
LjL | ah | 14:49 |
LjL | well, it'll spike everywhere | 14:49 |
LjL | prepare, whatever, i cannot say much | 14:49 |
pwr22 | My family are coming to visit me next weekend but that may have to get postponed | 14:50 |
python476 | next: P Lion | 14:50 |
LjL | pwr22, if you have elderly, keep them the hell at home if you can | 14:50 |
LjL | i can't with mine | 14:50 |
python476 | pwr22: all visits will now take place at prison glass-split booth | 14:50 |
pwr22 | My dad has health problems that mean I'd rather he not get sick, yeah | 14:52 |
python476 | same, my father would probably get close to death if it gets there | 14:53 |
pwr22 | I read yesterday that the NHS were going to start screening anyone with any possible symptoms no matter how minor | 14:54 |
pwr22 | That that could be behind the surge here today | 14:54 |
python476 | stats are swinging | 14:55 |
python476 | states are either ignoring or overscanning | 14:56 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 13:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: American Airlines sospende i voli su Milano. Violazione della 'zona rossa', 18 denunciati - Salute & Benessere - Agenzia ANSA → https://is.gd/kTbacq | 14:58 |
LjL | pwr22 that might be an overstatement, what i read is they'll swab if they have shortness of breath specifically | 14:59 |
LjL | but things are fluid right now | 14:59 |
LjL | ugh | 14:59 |
LjL | %tr Violazione della 'zona rossa', 18 denunciati | 15:00 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: Violation of the 'red zone', 18 reported (MyMemory, Google) — Breach of the '#red zone', 18 denounced (Apertium) | 15:00 |
LjL | here's a song about unthinkable events happening and people just carrying on ignoring them https://lyricstranslate.com/en/les-7-i-quart-quarter-past-seven.html | 15:04 |
LjL | at least that's how i interpret it, they are a bit cryptic as a band | 15:04 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:02 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 15:10 |
LjL | France, Germany and Britain are losing it now | 15:11 |
LjL | Brainstor, reload covid | 15:13 |
LjL | Brainstorm, reload covid | 15:14 |
Brainstorm | LjL: <module 'covid' from '/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py'> (version: 2020-03-01 14:13:52) | 15:14 |
LjL | %cases Italy | 15:14 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 14:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 15:14 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 15:14 |
python476 | who wrote Brainstorm ? | 15:14 |
python476 | tinwhiskers ? | 15:14 |
LjL | the core is jenni, a fork of phenny, but i wrote the various modules | 15:14 |
LjL | and i run it | 15:14 |
LjL | i'm getting the data above from tinwhiskers's kindly provided CSV though | 15:14 |
LjL | i was getting them from JHU before, but they are never up to date | 15:15 |
LjL | so i just added an automatic mention of his site, seems fair | 15:15 |
LjL | although it's also in the topic's list | 15:15 |
LjL | but who reads topics | 15:15 |
python476 | topics: who are they, what are they here for | 15:16 |
LjL | that's for ##philosophy :P | 15:16 |
python476 | philoso.py | 15:19 |
LjL | ha | 15:21 |
LjL | https://lyricstranslate.com/en/blaumut-massa-tard-lyrics.html | 15:29 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:36 UTC: Coronavirus: Pence defends Trump Jr claim Democrats want 'millions' to die: Vice-President is leading White House taskforce on outbreak Republicans are only ‘pushing back’, Pence claims Robert Reich: Trump’s cuts have made the danger far worse When Donald Trump Jr said Democrats hope coronavirus “kills [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5siArL | 15:48 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:55 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 15:59 |
LjL | stop schools, stop night clubs | 16:08 |
LjL | okay don't stop transport if that's critical | 16:08 |
LjL | but stop most things, really | 16:08 |
LjL | honestly i would still stop metros... keep transport on the surface, with open windows | 16:08 |
LjL | but you people aren't governments | 16:09 |
LjL | but i can't talk to governments | 16:09 |
python476 | maybe have indirect grocery delivery | 16:09 |
python476 | so people don't amass to stores | 16:09 |
LjL | yeah, although those poor "riders" as we call them here, the delivery workers, are already SO overworked | 16:10 |
LjL | and in danger of being run over by a car all the time | 16:10 |
LjL | %cases spain | 16:13 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Spain, there are 73 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 2 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 15:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 16:13 |
Brainstorm | LjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 16:13 |
LjL | oh gee, spain is spiking too? i thought they were sort of okay | 16:13 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, could i tax you with a "Select all EU" option | 16:14 |
LjL | i can provide the list of countries | 16:14 |
LjL | well "Select all Schengen" may be more appropriate, i dunno | 16:15 |
LjL | or maybe just make EU countries regions of "EU" | 16:18 |
LjL | that way we get the totals too | 16:18 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:20 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: UK fears of undetected cases grow as 12 more test positive → https://is.gd/usqOjz | 16:36 |
LjL | considering their new testing policy, 12 doesn't seem like a lot | 16:37 |
Timvde | %cases Belgium | 16:38 |
Brainstorm | Timvde: In Belgium, there are 2 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 15:35 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 16:38 |
Brainstorm | Timvde: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 16:38 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, also, i think it would be reasonable to enable "non-authoritative" data by default | 16:41 |
LjL | they're pretty authoritative really | 16:41 |
LjL | and people miss that box | 16:41 |
python476 | where do you scrape the data btw ? | 16:48 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:35 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 16:48 |
LjL | python476, there is a github run by someone at JHU that uploads data on a daily basis. but since "daily" isn't so quick, i get the data from tinwhiskers, who gets them... somehow | 16:49 |
LjL | before, i got them from the github | 16:49 |
LjL | his data are reliable anyway, just more up to date than some others | 16:50 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, but due to the timing of the data they can make slope of the curve incorrect and therefore misleading | 16:51 |
LjL | true that | 16:55 |
tinwhiskers | python476: it comes from a couple of sources which all kind of leap-frog each other in terms of who is most up to date, so I take the highest values between them. You probably already know these sources. | 16:56 |
LjL | yeah, i have found no single source that beats them all | 16:56 |
LjL | Reddit (one of the subs dedicated to this, i've lost track) has a cool map | 16:56 |
LjL | but it's a bit of a different thing | 16:56 |
tinwhiskers | One has a nice tidy json data set but tends to be a bit slower and the other one is scraped | 16:56 |
LjL | anyway it's in the links | 16:56 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, you aren't in europe so i guess you don't have to care about database rights | 16:56 |
LjL | scraping may still violate some ToS but what the hell, this virus is violating us a lot more | 16:57 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, I'll stop if asked by the rights holder | 16:58 |
python476 | tinwhiskers: data races 2.0 | 17:11 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 16:05 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, ultime notizie: nuova vittima a Piacenza, i morti salgono a 30. Oltre 1100 i contagi. Il sindaco di Codogno: «Dal governo schiaffo immeritato» - Open → https://is.gd/Hps8gG | 17:13 |
LjL | 30... just one more than yesterday for now, but how many cases | 17:14 |
LjL | %cases italy | 17:14 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 50 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 16:05 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 17:14 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 36.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 17:14 |
LjL | well, it says 29 and not 30 so the cases must also be lower than latest estimate | 17:15 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: as for, a "select all EU" do you just want to select them or have a subtotal? | 17:16 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, well, subtotal would be nice, as i said, you could make EU a "country" and have regions within it. but if that's a hassle, being able to select them all would also be nice | 17:16 |
tinwhiskers | Hrm | 17:17 |
tinwhiskers | I'll have a look in the morning | 17:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, the Schengen area is a free movement area so it makes logical sense too | 17:18 |
tinwhiskers | Is there a good place to get a list of countries in the EU? | 17:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i'll provide a list of EU countries as well as a list of Schengen countries, then you can choose. a few some Schengen borders are "temporarily" closed, so the theory is different from the practice in some ways | 17:19 |
LjL | provide you *with*? | 17:19 |
tinwhiskers | It might make sense to have various subtotals you can select like "EU", "Schengen", "World outside China" rather than making artificial groupings of the checkboxes. | 17:21 |
|daryl| | https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#the-27-member-countries-of-the-eu | 17:21 |
fructose | https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=7037179 | 17:24 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:14 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 17:25 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i hope i've done it correctly https://paste.ee/p/VtyIa | 17:28 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah well the EU is like... there's the EU proper but then there's a lot of subsets because there's always SOME treat that SOME countries aren't in | 17:29 |
LjL | but viruses don't read treaties, so i would take an "EU+" view here | 17:29 |
tinwhiskers | Sure | 17:29 |
tinwhiskers | Ok, no problem. It would be good to have "South America" "Africa" and others as well. Subtotals and buttons to select the individual series. Open to suggestions for other regions. | 17:32 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah, regions that are separate either geographically or politically (in terms of who can come and go) are probably useful | 17:32 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but Africa doesn't have real data, mostly | 17:33 |
tinwhiskers | Not yet | 17:33 |
LjL | i mean... i'm pretty sure they have cases, they're just not counting them | 17:33 |
tinwhiskers | And yeah, but whatever the agencies publish | 17:33 |
tinwhiskers | Fair | 17:33 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, maybe "Hindustan" is another region of interest, although that may create arguments i guess maybe | 17:33 |
LjL | i mean India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, the Fiji... not sure if i'm forgetting someone | 17:34 |
LjL | Sri Lanka | 17:34 |
LjL | sorry Sri | 17:34 |
tinwhiskers | Fiji? | 17:34 |
tinwhiskers | Oh. Right | 17:34 |
LjL | islands, they have lots of Hindus/Indians | 17:34 |
LjL | Hindi is an official language | 17:34 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:44 UTC: Mike Bloomberg to address US in TV ad on coronavirus and Trump’s response: Trump tweets: ‘Mini Mike Bloomberg’s consultants and so-called advisors (how did that advice work out? Don’t ask!)’ Pence defends Trump Jr claim Democrats want ‘millions’ to die Mike Bloomberg has bought three minutes of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/c0MOk7 | 17:50 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, I'm right next to Fiji. I just hadn't really thought of it as Hindu, but yeah, there's lots of Indians there. | 17:51 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, my bot does earthquakes, so i often see the warning for Fiji, which automatically includes Hindi because i use a library for languages-to-region | 18:01 |
LjL | well, languages-to-country actually. region would be better | 18:01 |
LjL | it's silly to give a warning in Catalan... to Granada | 18:01 |
LjL | but right now i do it anyway | 18:01 |
mefistofeles | %data germany | 18:04 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Germany, there are 129 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 16:35 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 18:04 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 18:05 |
mefistofeles | LjL: so, how are things going? | 18:05 |
LjL | mefistofeles, *deep sigh* | 18:07 |
LjL | we're okay | 18:07 |
Spec | we are all goooood | 18:08 |
mefistofeles | LjL: good to hear | 18:08 |
Spec | i have been learning about cells | 18:10 |
mefistofeles | Interesting how the new cases curves between countries like Italy, Iran or Germany are compared to those from Singapore or Hong Kong | 18:10 |
Spec | i am in AWE about the number of mechanical actions the protein MACHINES do in our cells | 18:10 |
LjL | mefistofeles, more than interesting it's terrifying | 18:10 |
Spec | i didn't realize how...mechanical and life-like everything is on the nanoscale | 18:10 |
LjL | but i guess it's interesting if you aren't in one of those | 18:10 |
mefistofeles | LjL: not really, the normal expected curves are the one from Italy, Iran or similar | 18:11 |
mefistofeles | eve Korea shows it | 18:11 |
mefistofeles | even* | 18:11 |
LjL | Spec, everything is a continuum. i have to finish a conversation about that with someone, who foolishly thinks that maybe dolphins or apes share a consciousness with us, but other animals don't - arbitrarily | 18:11 |
LjL | most things are continuums | 18:11 |
Spec | hmm | 18:12 |
LjL | mefistofeles, well they are expected and dangerous. those other countries are... somehow managing to contain it | 18:12 |
LjL | we need to do whatever they're doing | 18:12 |
mefistofeles | so the abnormal ones are the others, which would make me thing they either got very few people infected and were noticed early, or they have a lot of infected people without diagnose | 18:12 |
mefistofeles | s/thing/think | 18:12 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles meant to say: so the abnormal ones are the others, which would make me think they either got very few people infected and were noticed early, or they have a lot of infected people without diagnose | 18:12 |
LjL | mefistofeles, or they are succeeding at containment. that's the WHO's view so far | 18:12 |
LjL | from the day before yesterday's press conference | 18:12 |
LjL | i didn't hear today's one, or yesterday's one | 18:12 |
mefistofeles | yeah, same here, I'm basically just watching series nowadays xD | 18:14 |
mefistofeles | now, have you heard something about the R0 thing? | 18:14 |
mefistofeles | do we have a better estimate yet? | 18:14 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:55 UTC: Coronavirus: 12 more cases confirmed in UK, taking total in Britain to 35 – latest updates: USA, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus as bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 18:14 |
LjL | mefistofeles, no, no idea, last i heard was 2.2 minimum, up to 3, but it was just a video from a person | 18:15 |
LjL | i am disappointed my bot is so useless with news | 18:15 |
mefistofeles | some scientists said it was up to 6.6 or something like that, but that was weeks ago | 18:15 |
LjL | mefistofeles, let's hope it's just not | 18:15 |
LjL | we may as well give up if it's that | 18:15 |
Spec | 6.6 r0? | 18:16 |
mefistofeles | I guess it should be easy to fit the curves and check it ourselves | 18:16 |
Spec | that's some significant spreadiness | 18:16 |
LjL | mefistofeles, tinwhiskers apparently knows how to use excel | 18:16 |
LjL | i'll let him do that | 18:16 |
LjL | though he's probably busy adding the EU to the site :P | 18:17 |
Spec | so do the numbers we see from other countries line up with what china was producing? | 18:17 |
mefistofeles | well, excel is kinda crappy for this, tbh xD but any will do | 18:17 |
mefistofeles | I could make something in python... maybe... | 18:17 |
tinwhiskers | The R0 changes depending on human behaviour so you can't really give a single value and different countries will be different. You can give an average but that's not all that useful anyway. | 18:19 |
tinwhiskers | And we don't have enough data to say anything useful outside most of China anyway | 18:19 |
Spec | yeah | 18:20 |
Spec | handwashings is important, eh | 18:20 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, if you can automagically deduce an R0 for each country, that'd be interesting in itself | 18:21 |
Spec | i suspect i will inevitable get it 'cause i've got children | 18:21 |
LjL | it shows how much they're containing it, in a different way from the curves | 18:21 |
LjL | Spec, i HOPE when countries see this is becoming pervasive, schools will be closed | 18:21 |
tinwhiskers | In epidemiology, in theory R0 is "without management" but you can't remove management from the equation when dealing with human outbreaks. | 18:21 |
LjL | (they're closed here, but only in the most affected regions) | 18:21 |
LjL | i know most parents aren't happy with that thought | 18:21 |
Spec | LjL: "affected regions" | 18:21 |
LjL | but it's kind of important | 18:21 |
LjL | Spec, Lombardy and Veneto | 18:21 |
Spec | lol | 18:21 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, doing the R0 for each country would be great | 18:21 |
Spec | LjL: i keep thinking 14 days no symptoms :P | 18:21 |
LjL | Spec, 14 since what | 18:22 |
Spec | not usual, 7 days. | 18:22 |
Spec | LjL: you can be an asymptomatic spreader for 2-14 days, right? | 18:22 |
LjL | yes, rarely more | 18:22 |
LjL | but sometimes more | 18:22 |
Spec | so "affected areas" is a joke to me | 18:22 |
LjL | eeeeh i know | 18:22 |
Spec | all areas could be affected and it's just chance | 18:22 |
mefistofeles | I mean, for China, the R is already less than 1, I'd say | 18:22 |
LjL | but at least they are reacting | 18:22 |
LjL | a bit | 18:22 |
mefistofeles | the interesting thing is getting it for Italy or Germany or such | 18:22 |
Spec | LjL: i looked into a crystal ball and i forsee a case in my area in the next fortnight :P | 18:22 |
LjL | Spec, for now the exponential growth is still just in Lombardy and Veneto | 18:22 |
LjL | the known exponential growths | 18:23 |
LjL | cases elsewhere have been isolated | 18:23 |
Spec | i see | 18:23 |
Spec | so community-to-community only in lombardy and veneto? | 18:23 |
LjL | Spec, likely elsewhere too | 18:23 |
LjL | i said, known | 18:23 |
LjL | but if it gets BAD, they'll notice | 18:23 |
Spec | you mean when people are dying | 18:23 |
Spec | 3 weeks after community2community spreading has taken root? | 18:23 |
LjL | when people have concerning symptoms | 18:23 |
LjL | i hope that's a bit before dying | 18:23 |
Spec | i think it is 1-2 weeks before dying | 18:24 |
LjL | yeah, okay, then that | 18:24 |
LjL | Spec, it's hard enough to convince my parents that doing or not doing something *within a week* (or less) can make a difference | 18:24 |
LjL | they're old, they just don't seem to be able to comprehend that this thing is moving fast | 18:24 |
LjL | every day, twice the sick | 18:24 |
Spec | exponential curves are quite exponential | 18:24 |
LjL | and 70yo people are used to normality | 18:25 |
LjL | and their brains are adjusted for slow reaction | 18:25 |
Spec | what are the chances this thing is already far more widespread than thought, but many people have very mild/low reactions? | 18:26 |
Spec | we wont' really know until we screen every patient at GPs right? | 18:26 |
LjL | Spec, the UK has started doing swabs for everyone with certain symptoms (shortness of breath), even if they're sort of mild | 18:26 |
LjL | so that'll be one interesting experiment | 18:27 |
LjL | Spec, i think some people have gone from thinking that widespread asymptomatic disease was probably the case, to... probably not | 18:27 |
LjL | contingo probably thinks that | 18:27 |
Spec | to probably not? | 18:27 |
Spec | i don't know which would even be better, honestly | 18:27 |
mefistofeles | we can surely say the numbers we get are less than the actual numbers | 18:28 |
LjL | Spec, i'm not sure, it would lower mortality, but does it matter? it's still the same people dying, and it's still the same amount of people requiring hospitalization, and that'll be the real problem | 18:28 |
LjL | mefistofeles, yes, but significantly? | 18:28 |
mefistofeles | how off? That depends on many things, but they are surely under the real actual numbers | 18:28 |
mefistofeles | I mean, I bet it's already in South America and such, but it's probably just a "flu" there and people don't even bother | 18:29 |
Spec | LjL: lowering mortality would mean the curve won't continue to be sharp rise, though | 18:29 |
Spec | mefistofeles: right | 18:29 |
LjL | Spec, but the curves are important to see what happens to the people - not the other way around | 18:30 |
Spec | yeah | 18:30 |
mefistofeles | LjL: which curves? | 18:30 |
mefistofeles | and how? | 18:30 |
LjL | mefistofeles, this is worse than a flu. when 15-20% have hospitalization symptoms, some alarm bells should trigger (maybe not in Africa) | 18:30 |
mefistofeles | LjL: again, hospitalization criteria varies A LOT | 18:30 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i mean in general, if knowing something makes a curve look less bad, it doesn't necessarily make it less bad for people. so if Spec is just like "hey the mortality curve will look less scary if we have more mild cases", i think unless there's a reason to think many mild cases are good news... well, the curve itself isn't the reason | 18:31 |
mefistofeles | you can get a fever and cough and difficulty breathing, and people would still not go to the doctor in South America, for example | 18:31 |
LjL | i don't know, i guess | 18:31 |
LjL | i think people kind of become more equal when under distress | 18:31 |
LjL | Japanese are hoarding toilet paper | 18:32 |
LjL | i don't usually imagine Japan that way | 18:32 |
mefistofeles | I do | 18:32 |
LjL | and i couldn't have imagined Italian locking up 50k people under threat of jailtime, two weeks ago | 18:32 |
LjL | i'd have said "that's China, we don't do that" | 18:32 |
mefistofeles | I imagine developed countries to be more in the panic side of things | 18:32 |
LjL | but now i'm even like "well... we had to" | 18:32 |
mefistofeles | Japan falls into that | 18:32 |
mefistofeles | even if it could be worse in "developing" countries, paradoxically | 18:33 |
Spec | LjL: but did you HAVE to burn them all? | 18:34 |
LjL | Spec, wait what | 18:34 |
Spec | jokes | 18:35 |
LjL | idgi though | 18:35 |
mefistofeles | anyways, it may be a good opportunity to bring my old python code back | 18:35 |
Spec | about the slippery slope to accepting authoritarianism in trade of safety | 18:35 |
LjL | a section from https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Betrothed_(Manzoni)/Chapter_31 was recited on TV a day or two ago | 18:35 |
LjL | it felt very creepy | 18:35 |
mefistofeles | actually... I think I left it back in my desktop pc xD | 18:36 |
LjL | Spec, look at those curves. the authoritarian countries are doing well, we are doing terribly (exclude Iran, they're fucked up) | 18:36 |
LjL | that isn't an endorsement of authoritarianism | 18:36 |
LjL | but if we're all dead we can't be a democracy anymore | 18:36 |
mefistofeles | wait, what= | 18:37 |
mefistofeles | first, what do you mean by "authoritarian countries"? | 18:37 |
Spec | LjL: why don't you vote about it instead | 18:38 |
Spec | :D | 18:38 |
mefistofeles | LjL: why are you even talking about "all being dead", wtf? | 18:39 |
LjL | sec | 18:40 |
Spec | mefistofeles: he fears the collapse of society due to inability to cope with worldwide pandemic | 18:40 |
Spec | once you get to the large numbers and you oversaturate your healthcare system | 18:40 |
mefistofeles | Spec: that's... very unlikely, to say the least | 18:41 |
mefistofeles | actually, not even | 18:41 |
mefistofeles | that's just ridiculous | 18:41 |
LjL | okay i'm sorry i made a hyperbole | 18:41 |
LjL | but look | 18:41 |
LjL | predictions not from me, but from expert, say that between 30% and 60% of the population is likely to get this virus within one year | 18:41 |
mefistofeles | citation needed | 18:41 |
LjL | 15-20% of those who get it need a hospital eventually, or they risk a lot more | 18:42 |
LjL | okay nevermind | 18:42 |
LjL | this is not wikipedia | 18:42 |
LjL | you are just wanting to say i'm wrong | 18:42 |
mefistofeles | yes, it's worse | 18:42 |
LjL | i'm wrong | 18:42 |
LjL | you give better data | 18:42 |
mefistofeles | I mean, you cannot say "not from me, from expert" without citing | 18:42 |
mefistofeles | but still, you can continue, I was just saying that a citation is pretty much handy in this case | 18:43 |
mefistofeles | https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 so now the data I used before is in this repository, that's better | 18:48 |
LjL | mefistofeles, citations are the handiest, but i have like 150 browser tabs open, many more that i have closed but were about COVID-19, and my brain is barely still in one piece... i need to avoid feeling overwhelmed | 18:50 |
theglass | All Leads to the Same Dashboard. | 18:51 |
mefistofeles | theglass: I've always used the John Hopkins Dashboard, if that's what you mean | 18:52 |
theglass | That's precisely what I mean | 18:52 |
mefistofeles | I found it to be the more easy to deal with and reproduce | 18:52 |
LjL | mefistofeles, what i can say is from the WHO press conference of i think 28 february, they are *not* calling it a pandemic for precisely one reason: *some* countries are actually succeeding at containing it, and so even though other countries aren't and it seems unlikely it'll succeed globally, we have to keep trying. if we try, at least it will result in mitigation (although we also have to take direct mitigation actions, but without giving up on | 18:52 |
LjL | containment). the point of it all being, IF we call it a pandemic, that means we accept "everyone" will be infected. he didn't say a percentage in that one, he just said everyone for simplicity... and that's the WHO direct | 18:52 |
LjL | mefistofeles, https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 is the repository Brainstorm used | 18:53 |
mefistofeles | ok | 18:53 |
LjL | but it's not always actually up to date with the JHU map | 18:53 |
LjL | they upload once a day or so | 18:53 |
mefistofeles | also flu season is finishing, that should help | 18:54 |
LjL | at least to distinguish | 18:54 |
mefistofeles | yeah, also helps to not flooding the hospitals with other diseases/cases | 18:56 |
mefistofeles | and also should to denature the virus as wlel | 18:57 |
mefistofeles | well* | 18:57 |
LjL | The Ministry of Health announced new guidelines for reporting cases on 27 February in response to the previous blanket testing that caused case numbers to surge and inflamed public panic.[332] It would no longer report asymptomatic cases (swabs taken from patients which tested positive but were not showing symptoms) which counted as 40 to 50% of all reported cases at the time. These people would undergo isolation at home and would be followed up with new | 18:59 |
LjL | tests until they were negative.[333][334] | 18:59 |
LjL | so - beware of Italy seeming to "go back to linear", mefistofeles / tinwhiskers | 18:59 |
LjL | if you do any projections | 18:59 |
Spec | lol | 19:00 |
LjL | also Spec, i guess this answers, at least for italy, how many just don't have anything? | 19:00 |
Spec | asymptomatic cases no longer being reported | 19:00 |
Spec | so good | 19:00 |
LjL | yes Spec my country is awful. to be fair, yours is arguably worse | 19:00 |
Spec | i mean, CURRENTLY | 19:00 |
Spec | it seems that way | 19:00 |
Spec | i should have taken pictures of the sun today | 19:01 |
mefistofeles | wait, this is all expected | 19:01 |
mefistofeles | projections should still work | 19:01 |
mefistofeles | asymptomatic cases are not commonly reported, the fact that Italy tested subjects without symptoms is actually an unexpected good thing | 19:02 |
LjL | mefistofeles, even if you don't account for the criteria changing suddenly? look at that spike in China (in tinwhiskers's graphs, but also any of the other graphs). you can see it's an artifact, because they counted more cases using CT... but when you automatically calculate numbers from that, it may make them go haywire, no? | 19:02 |
mefistofeles | that cannot be said for China or others, fwiw | 19:02 |
mefistofeles | now they just cannot keep testing everyone that wants a test, also expected | 19:02 |
LjL | anyway, considering in China they have included MORE cases by adding CT scan confirmed cases, i really cannot get behind my government's decision to count FEWER cases | 19:02 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i have no idea how a CT scan manages to be easier to do that a swab test, but China is using that to augment the data | 19:03 |
LjL | apparently around 95% of patients have abnormal CT scans, even with mild symptoms | 19:03 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:50 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 19:03 |
mefistofeles | LjL: I don't think it's easier, it just another way when they don'thave enough kits | 19:04 |
python476 | are we dead yet ? | 19:04 |
python476 | aww no | 19:04 |
mefistofeles | python476: lol | 19:04 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i guess. two corridors is wider than one | 19:04 |
Spec | so CT scan is how they confirm? to see the lesions? | 19:04 |
mefistofeles | LjL: also, that only works for severe/critical cases | 19:04 |
LjL | Spec, they don't use it to confirm, they're now using it as an alternative test that's considered conclusive | 19:04 |
LjL | Spec, so if you have the expected symptoms AND an abnormal CT scan, you are a COVID-19 case, even if you don't get a swab test | 19:04 |
Spec | yeah, i thought lesions only showed up in crit+ | 19:05 |
LjL | hmm i don't know about that | 19:05 |
LjL | i read a preliminary paper... let me find it | 19:05 |
mefistofeles | well, last time I heard it was, sever/critical, not sure about things showing up in mild cases | 19:05 |
mefistofeles | severe* | 19:05 |
Spec | i was trying to understand the mechanism of viral action | 19:05 |
Spec | and i found a whole world of fascinating micro machines :P | 19:05 |
Spec | if only contingo told me about them before | 19:06 |
fructose | https://twitter.com/trvrb | 19:06 |
fructose | "This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks." | 19:06 |
Spec | cryptic? | 19:07 |
contingo | hide-n-seek style | 19:08 |
Spec | > It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China. | 19:08 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i've found https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 but i'm not really sure it's the paper i had in mind. in this one, the relevant passage is "Of 975 CT scans that were performed at the time of admission, 86.2% revealed abnormal results." but that's admittedly a much milder claim, because 1) 86% < 95% and 2) of the CT scans *that were performed* | 19:08 |
Spec | does that mean this virus is not completely stable? | 19:08 |
Spec | what does the p-value represent? | 19:09 |
LjL | the virus's genome keeps changing, if that's what you're asking | 19:09 |
LjL | mostly in ways that don't matter, probably | 19:09 |
LjL | but it's an RNA virus so it mutates a lot | 19:09 |
Spec | oh | 19:09 |
mefistofeles | yeah, mutations have already been reported | 19:10 |
Spec | i thought that dr said reinfection was low because it was stable | 19:10 |
fructose | And "Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections." | 19:10 |
Spec | mutations mean reinfection chances increase, right? | 19:10 |
mefistofeles | Spec: mutations doesn't directly mean reinfection | 19:10 |
Spec | oh | 19:10 |
Spec | it has to mutate in the right manner for our antibodies to not recognize? | 19:10 |
LjL | Spec, yes | 19:10 |
LjL | it has to change a protein | 19:10 |
LjL | the antigen | 19:10 |
mefistofeles | if the mutations are missense mutations, it may be, but even then, it may even just "kill" the virus eventually.. who knows | 19:10 |
LjL | in ways that makes your antibody fail to recognize it | 19:11 |
mefistofeles | something similar happened to SARS, kinda disappeared all of a sudden | 19:11 |
Spec | i see | 19:11 |
LjL | mefistofeles, if only | 19:11 |
Spec | so it can accidentally evolve itself away? | 19:11 |
mefistofeles | Spec: yes | 19:11 |
Spec | doesn't seem like a very darwinian approach | 19:11 |
LjL | *all* strains would do that? | 19:11 |
LjL | seems unlikely to me intuitively | 19:11 |
mefistofeles | I mean, viruses are not alive | 19:11 |
Spec | LjL: maybe pray about it | 19:11 |
Spec | mefistofeles: i'm not clear on that | 19:11 |
LjL | eh what does it matter whether they're by definition alive or not | 19:11 |
Spec | this fascinating world of micromachines makes me question things | 19:11 |
LjL | they certainly undergo evolution | 19:11 |
mefistofeles | they are not choosing their own mechanisms to try to stay alive, they depend on the hosts | 19:12 |
contingo | in some viruses that have been in the human population a long time (in evolutionary terms), strains have diverged to an extent you get complicated cross-immunity shit going down like infection by one strain is made a lot worse by having been previously infected with another strain | 19:12 |
mefistofeles | so yes, they can change in a way that it makes it less prone to reproduce and eventually "die" | 19:12 |
LjL | we are not choosing our own mechanisms, mostly, evolution is | 19:12 |
Spec | LjL: an RNA virus meaning it injects rna directly into host cells which then go to TheMachines which Produce proteins, and gets them to produce more virus? | 19:12 |
fructose | mefistofeles: No | 19:12 |
fructose | mefistofeles: Please stop spreading misinformation | 19:12 |
contingo | with the present virus they are talking more about "biphasic illness" than reinfections I think | 19:12 |
LjL | Spec, i am not going to pretend i know the mechanisms. i just know an RNA virus has more chances of mutation than a DNA virus | 19:13 |
contingo | but I'm not cutting edge on this since I didn't read the news since last night | 19:13 |
Spec | contingo: so it's not really gone when it's gone | 19:13 |
Spec | LjL: the physical mechanisms of action at this level is actually far more intersting than any biology lesson i've ever had, ever | 19:13 |
Spec | i watched this -> https://www.ted.com/talks/drew_berry_animations_of_unseeable_biology | 19:13 |
Spec | and then 3 hours of university lectures about kinesin motor proteins :P | 19:14 |
python476 | who is in medicine / biology / | 19:17 |
python476 | ? | 19:17 |
mefistofeles | kinesin are nice indeed | 19:17 |
LjL | Spec, i just tend to assume i can't possibly understand the intricate details of these things, because when i look at them, oh my god the complexity | 19:17 |
LjL | i like to think i can understand many things at least at a high level | 19:18 |
LjL | but low level, tbh, python is hard enough | 19:18 |
Spec | LjL: but when you look at them at this low level, it's not complex | 19:18 |
Spec | the complexity is in the intermediate layers | 19:18 |
Spec | the sum aggregate function of these simple things | 19:18 |
python476 | it's all about interaction combinatorial explosion ? | 19:18 |
Spec | but to think...when people say "a protein" they mean a fucking lego block | 19:18 |
Spec | and we just make lego blocks all the time | 19:19 |
mefistofeles | fructose: for RNA viruses and coronaviruses specially, the genome size puts some real limitations on evolution, regardless of the mutation rate and adaptability they have | 19:19 |
LjL | Spec, :) | 19:19 |
Spec | and RNA are instructions to make complex physical lego blocks | 19:19 |
Spec | some lego blocks have electromechanical properties, others are like, literally a special shape | 19:19 |
Spec | just a shape | 19:19 |
python476 | ever heard of spiroligomers ? | 19:19 |
Spec | nooope | 19:19 |
Spec | python476: i read wikipedia page and still have no idea | 19:21 |
mefistofeles | Spec: that's a very simplified way of looking at them but sure, at some level that's a way to see them | 19:21 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: btw, for Brainstorm to refer to a time series you can do, e.g. http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=france,italy | 19:21 |
Spec | mefistofeles: it's the BEST way to see them :) | 19:22 |
python476 | Spec: researcher use the spiroligomers as scaffold to craft proteins | 19:22 |
Spec | at least, a cursory understanding at that level of abstraction helps understand more complex layers | 19:22 |
python476 | the dude said it was like printing legos | 19:22 |
Spec | python476: aah, that makes sense | 19:22 |
mefistofeles | Spec: not really, proteins are far from lego blocks in many senses... so, it depends :) | 19:23 |
Spec | mefistofeles: well, more like custom fit' parts | 19:23 |
Spec | mefistofeles: my previous mental model was just "goop" and "random interaction" you see | 19:23 |
contingo | I was drawn to working in viral genetics because they were so "neat" in the sense of genetic and structural concision, compared to everything else | 19:23 |
Spec | to see COMPONENTS that interact *in very physical ways*, with *specific movement/motors* is ridiculous | 19:23 |
contingo | but of course they interact with those things in horribly complicated ways | 19:23 |
mefistofeles | Spec: ok, I'd just call them proteins, having to find a easy analogy that works for every case is pointless... so just use the analogy for the case you want to show | 19:24 |
Spec | mefistofeles: yes, but calling them proteins didn't ever help me | 19:24 |
mefistofeles | ok | 19:24 |
Spec | like, beef is proteins | 19:24 |
contingo | so then I moved on to working on the messiest organisms I could find | 19:24 |
mefistofeles | Spec: just mind that | 19:24 |
mefistofeles | they are not simple, at all | 19:24 |
Spec | mefistofeles: of course they aren't :P | 19:24 |
contingo | I've heard of the lego block analogy to describe amino acids | 19:24 |
Spec | yes, but that's at an even lower level | 19:24 |
mefistofeles | contingo: yes, that one is more likely | 19:24 |
Spec | and probably more accurate | 19:24 |
python476 | contingo: de Grey (SENS) often shows the "current biomedical systemic diagram" | 19:25 |
python476 | it's insane | 19:25 |
contingo | than are then assembled into totally specified lego structures, the structures being proteins | 19:25 |
contingo | or polypeptides | 19:25 |
Spec | yes, 'lego structures' | 19:25 |
Spec | is what i more meant :P | 19:25 |
contingo | but then when you get into protein folding and primary to quaternary structure hierarchy and multiple-protein subunit biomolecules | 19:26 |
contingo | you have to have funky lego pieces | 19:26 |
python476 | duplo then | 19:26 |
Spec | like this machine -> https://youtu.be/X_tYrnv_o6A?t=76 | 19:26 |
Spec | is that just one protein, or a collection of proteins? | 19:27 |
Spec | the dna-splitter-combiner thing | 19:27 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, thanks, that's better than linking and telling people what to click | 19:27 |
contingo | those are multiple proteins | 19:28 |
Spec | what i find awe-inspiring about that is it's just a little machine doing a thing | 19:28 |
contingo | acting as a functional complex | 19:28 |
Spec | yeah, so RNA codes for various proteins out of that ...whatever that machine is | 19:28 |
Spec | and somehow they combine to make that machine? | 19:28 |
mefistofeles | Spec: you mean the DNA synthetase? | 19:28 |
Spec | mefistofeles: you gotta use smaller words when speaking to me | 19:28 |
Spec | EIL5 | 19:28 |
mefistofeles | that's a complex of a several proteins | 19:28 |
Spec | how do they get together? | 19:29 |
python476 | contingo: I was thinking of this https://www.sigmaaldrich.com/technical-documents/articles/biology/interactive-metabolic-pathways-map.html | 19:29 |
python476 | direct link http://www.metabolic-pathway.com/fullMap.html | 19:29 |
mefistofeles | Spec: there are many ways, either electrostatics interactions, chemical bonds forming, allosteric interactions, etc. | 19:30 |
Spec | mefistofeles: well that's how they stick together | 19:30 |
python476 | what's allosteric ? | 19:30 |
Spec | mefistofeles: how do they GET together? is it bump-up-in-soup-and-match, or is it a purposeful action | 19:30 |
Spec | %w allosteric | 19:30 |
Brainstorm | Spec, allosteric — adjective: 1. (biochemistry, of an enzyme) That binds a compound on an inactive site and thus changes conformation in order to become either active or inactive — noun: 1. (biochemistry) An allosteric modulator → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/allosteric | 19:30 |
mefistofeles | ah yes, mostly it is random encounters | 19:31 |
mefistofeles | Spec: but not always | 19:31 |
python476 | thanks | 19:31 |
Spec | so random encounters in soup by things that "want" to bind based on whatever binding mechanisms they have | 19:31 |
Spec | in contrast to the motors that purposefully ... move shit from place A to place B for reason C | 19:31 |
LjL | Spec, have you found a lego-simplified explanation of how immune system gets to realize intruders are bad intruders in the first place, since at first, it doesn't recognize them at all | 19:31 |
Spec | someone should have showed me this video when i was very young :( | 19:31 |
LjL | but then it does | 19:31 |
LjL | (sometimes too late) | 19:31 |
Spec | i would have gone into bio instead of IT :P | 19:32 |
LjL | lol | 19:32 |
Spec | cell division/mitosis via microscope never interested me in the slightest | 19:32 |
contingo | metabolic pathways are tortuous | 19:32 |
Spec | micromachines tho, wtf | 19:32 |
Spec | contingo: haha, i have seen some maps | 19:32 |
mefistofeles | Spec: I don't think that video were even possible back then xD | 19:32 |
contingo | python476 just linked some | 19:32 |
python476 | Spec: aubrey de gray was a ~programmer at first | 19:32 |
Spec | mefistofeles: no, they are recent from being able to mark genes w/ fluorescents | 19:32 |
Spec | our understanding at this level at any rate | 19:32 |
LjL | good god | 19:33 |
contingo | if you want to see ridiculously complicated systems in pure genetics I can give examples | 19:33 |
LjL | "tortuous" | 19:33 |
LjL | is not a word that describes that | 19:33 |
Spec | contingo: ohh yeah, jeeze, impossible for me to undersatnd :P | 19:33 |
LjL | (also why does that site want to know my LOCATION?) | 19:33 |
LjL | i mean https://www.sigmaaldrich.com/technical-documents/articles/biology/interactive-metabolic-pathways-map.html | 19:33 |
Spec | LjL: it uses google maps | 19:33 |
Spec | oh | 19:33 |
contingo | like genetics of fungal mating type systems were designed to weed out genetics students of inferior ability or dedication XD | 19:34 |
LjL | Spec, so after they broke the old google maps for most sites, including governmental ones, now they have a NEW google maps that always tries to access your location? :| | 19:34 |
Spec | contingo: so like, zoom into this map, i look at a thing. this is just a molecule phase of a thing | 19:34 |
Spec | contingo: is that a protein? | 19:34 |
Spec | "P-Ribosylformimino 5-aminoimidazole-carboxamide-R P" - i assume it's a protein? | 19:34 |
python476 | or an insult | 19:34 |
Spec | haha | 19:35 |
Spec | i recognize some of these words | 19:35 |
contingo | no... | 19:35 |
Spec | :P | 19:35 |
Spec | contingo: so just amino acid chain of some variety? | 19:35 |
Spec | wait, this is our FULL metabolic pathway system? all the things? | 19:36 |
Spec | so it includes the citric acid cycle somewhere in here? | 19:36 |
contingo | no, like there will be amino acids and proteins there probably, but it's mostly showing the pathways whereby chemicals are converted stepwise into other chemicals, by proteins and protein-like things, with energy inputs and outputs and stuff | 19:37 |
python476 | Spec: not sure, probably an approximation that can fit onto a websit | 19:37 |
Spec | contingo: i see | 19:37 |
contingo | I'm just guessing cos I don't want to look at a metabolic pathway map rn | 19:37 |
Spec | hahahaha | 19:37 |
Spec | this is a neat fucking map | 19:37 |
Spec | i would watch a lecture of someone walking through the pathways :P | 19:37 |
mefistofeles | lol, that's from merck | 19:38 |
contingo | they probably have very inspiring visualizations of some of the core cycles now. then maps were cool but then it became a painfully dry subject for me as a student when I had to memorize details | 19:39 |
python476 | Spec: that would make a nice and long video series | 19:39 |
Spec | python476: as long as it had pretty animations and kept it simple :) | 19:40 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 18:22 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, superati i 1500 contagi. Scuole chiuse anche in Friuli Venezia Giulia e a Pesaro - La Repubblica → https://is.gd/bfkaW9 | 19:40 |
Spec | contingo: yes, memorizing details is not what i want out of that sort of thing | 19:40 |
Spec | i just like learning about complex systems and how they interact | 19:40 |
Spec | i don't care about the specifics :P | 19:40 |
mefistofeles | it all depends on how detailed and meso/macroscopic you want to go, I guess | 19:42 |
mefistofeles | Spec: if you like these machines, you will really like the ATP-syntetase | 19:46 |
mefistofeles | synthase* | 19:47 |
Spec | mefistofeles: did you have a good animation about it? i did realize that was important to uhh, the motors | 19:48 |
Spec | they take the ...something protein and break energy out of it on a regular basis, in order to step forward | 19:49 |
Spec | or something..like that | 19:49 |
mefistofeles | Spec: sure, one sec.. | 19:49 |
Spec | I didn't quite understand how the "ATP" represents energy, or transfers it | 19:49 |
LjL | Spec, it's just a bitcoin, come on | 19:49 |
contingo | it's all in the bond | 19:49 |
Spec | adenosine? | 19:49 |
Spec | so it just Unbonds it and Gets...electrical potential from that action? | 19:50 |
LjL | i should probably be reading this all instead of just interjecting jokes | 19:50 |
Spec | tbf, all this is very off topic :P | 19:50 |
mefistofeles | Spec: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXpzp4RDGJI I guess this one should be good enough | 19:50 |
Spec | but what i really wanted to see was the MECHANICAL ACTION of the covid virus and what it does :P | 19:50 |
Spec | mefistofeles: perfect | 19:50 |
Spec | ugly little machine | 19:50 |
Spec | and people have mutations for these machines that are benign, or make them more efficient, etc | 19:51 |
LjL | %cases greece | 19:51 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Greece, there are 7 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 18:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 19:51 |
Brainstorm | LjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 19:51 |
Spec | mefistofeles: is my understanding that each one of these colored components are an individual protein? | 19:52 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 18:33 UTC: Coronavirus in Italia, le ultime notizie nel mondo - Corriere della Sera: Coronavirus in Italia, le ultime notizie nel mondo Corriere della Sera Coronavirus, in Italia superati i mille contagi (29 i morti) Corriere della Sera I casi di coronavirus in Italia sono più di mille Il Post Coronavirus in Italia: [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gXhzpo | 19:52 |
LjL | evening ubLIX | 19:53 |
ubLIX | hello | 19:53 |
LjL | google news news could be more newsy | 19:53 |
LjL | they aren't very newsy | 19:53 |
Spec | so ATP is just this phosphate + A Thingy That Gets Attached? | 19:54 |
ubLIX | idk if i have ever actually tried google news | 19:54 |
mefistofeles | Spec: those are the subunits which are commonly complexes | 19:55 |
contingo | two masks spotted in central London today | 19:55 |
LjL | contingo, fructose, you were asking about specifics of cases in Milan i think... i still don't have that, but this article https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_marzo_01/coronavirus-italia-positivi-sono-1577-34-morti-83-guariti-dati-1-marzo-215bf998-5be0-11ea-ae74-e93752023e91.shtml has it broken down by region at least | 19:56 |
contingo | one worn draped around the neck | 19:56 |
LjL | maybe i'll find better | 19:56 |
contingo | the other worn correctly | 19:56 |
Spec | contingo: :P | 19:56 |
Spec | mefistofeles: so like, i sorta get it, this produces the ATP, but i don't understand why the rotating thing is rotating, what does the rotation serve? is that the mechanical energy required to catalyze the phosphate into atp? | 19:57 |
LjL | https://www.corriere.it/salute/20_febbraio_25/coronavirus-mappa-contagio-italia-6ed25c54-57e3-11ea-a2d7-f1bec9902bd3.shtml may be helpful too (it's a map), but still by region only | 19:59 |
mefistofeles | Spec: the rotation helps changing the conformation of the different subunits to bind the things it needs in the sequence it needs them, I guess... now, why does it have only 3 conformations/states, I don't really know... not sure if there's an answer for that | 20:00 |
mefistofeles | why not 2? why not more than 3? maybe 3 is the most efficient way | 20:00 |
LjL | but i see some southern regions are already getting out of control with dozens of cases :\ | 20:00 |
LjL | why are bytes 8 bits? they weren't always, but the computers that used 8-bit bytes prevailed | 20:01 |
LjL | somehow | 20:01 |
LjL | maybe partly by chance | 20:01 |
Spec | mefistofeles: what does conformation mean in that context | 20:02 |
ubLIX | LjL: survival of the bittist | 20:02 |
Spec | ^ | 20:02 |
Spec | for sure | 20:02 |
mefistofeles | Spec: things like open/close or active/inactive | 20:02 |
ubLIX | (I'll see myself out) | 20:02 |
Spec | WORD | 20:02 |
LjL | ubLIX, :) | 20:02 |
Spec | mefistofeles: i see, so it does help set them up in whatever way they need to do the thing | 20:03 |
LjL | fructose, contingo: oh, i found *it*: https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/ this is by province. now "Milan" proper is just a part of its province, but... it's pretty close | 20:03 |
LjL | actually the province of Milan has been renamed to Milan Metropolitan Area | 20:03 |
contingo | Spec there's a (fairly crude) visualization halfway through this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omzHESciaWg | 20:03 |
LjL | just to make it longer to write, but also, it's a more accurate description | 20:03 |
Spec | mefistofeles: and where exactly are these things located? ... in the mitochondria? | 20:03 |
LjL | black are single cases, red are multiple cases | 20:04 |
LjL | wait no sorry | 20:04 |
LjL | black are deaths :( | 20:04 |
LjL | if you scroll down there's also a graph of new cases per day | 20:04 |
contingo | I'm sure there are higher production value ones somewhere | 20:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Google News Italia at 18:52 UTC: (news): Coronavirus, la diretta – I contagiati sono oltre 1500, 41 le vittime di cui 31 in Lombardia - Il Fatto Quotidiano → https://is.gd/XpFZby | 20:05 |
LjL | there's also tables, where it says "In attesa di aggiornamento" that literally means "Waiting for updates", i believe it's basically cases that have not yet been reported by location | 20:05 |
LjL | and there's a graph that shows MANY more than 20% are hospitalized | 20:05 |
mefistofeles | Spec: yes, in mithocondria for eukaryotes | 20:05 |
LjL | it's like... 45% hospitalized, 45% at home, 10% in ICU | 20:05 |
mefistofeles | mitochondria* | 20:06 |
LjL | (for Lombardy) | 20:06 |
LjL | Lombardy seems to have many more people hospitalized than Veneto, in proportion | 20:06 |
mefistofeles | LjL: many more being hospitalized doesn't mean they have to, only that they can afford it | 20:06 |
LjL | i hope that's just because we have more beds... | 20:06 |
mefistofeles | just like Korea can afford testing thousands without symptoms | 20:06 |
LjL | mefistofeles, true, Lombardy is the "best" region in terms of healthcare | 20:07 |
LjL | mefistofeles, we were also testing asymptomatic people, now... i think we still are, but not publishing them as part of the case numbers | 20:07 |
LjL | i guess it's lucky it started in Lombardy and not in some region with terrible healthcare | 20:07 |
LjL | sort of | 20:07 |
Spec | %w eukaryotes | 20:07 |
Brainstorm | Spec, eukaryotes — noun: 1. plural of eukaryote → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/eukaryotes | 20:07 |
Spec | %w eukaryote | 20:07 |
Brainstorm | Spec, eukaryote — noun: 1. Any of the single-celled or multicellular organisms of the taxonomic domain Eukaryota, whose cells contain at least one distinct nucleus → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/eukaryote | 20:07 |
Spec | am i a eukaryota | 20:07 |
contingo | yes you is | 20:08 |
Spec | excellent | 20:08 |
contingo | what are the worst regions in Italy for healthcare? | 20:08 |
Spec | so ATP itself just floats around inside the cell in which it is made? | 20:08 |
Spec | until it's consumed by a thing that needs its energy to do a thing | 20:08 |
contingo | a lot of these energy producing cycles and pathways are "membrane-bound", i.e., all the reacting things are organized and transported on the surface of lipid membrances | 20:10 |
LjL | contingo, i'm going to say Calabria because there have been some pretty bad healthcare-related events there, but i'm betting also Campania and many other southern regions. theglass? | 20:11 |
LjL | Latium is probably not great overall, either, but it has some very important hospitals like Spallanzani | 20:11 |
theglass | what? | 20:11 |
LjL | i doubt they have as many beds though | 20:11 |
LjL | theglass, your opinion on best/worst regions for healthcare | 20:11 |
LjL | oh right, they were supposed to do that | 20:12 |
contingo | in general the interior of a cell isn't quite just a soup where everything's floating around, cytoplasmic "space" in between obvious organelles is still quite structured by membranes, cytoskeleton fibres of various kinds, things and stuff | 20:12 |
Spec | contingo: lipid membrane is just fancy fat bubbles? | 20:12 |
theglass | I know just one | 20:12 |
LjL | good thing i was just about to use chanserv | 20:12 |
theglass | and it's under a loat of pressure | 20:12 |
theglass | lot* | 20:12 |
Spec | contingo: yes, i am gathering that more and more...there's less soup and more structure, but still some soup | 20:13 |
theglass | ah haven't read contingo's question | 20:13 |
theglass | well it's hard to say which are the worst | 20:14 |
theglass | usually you can tell what's best | 20:14 |
theglass | but anyway, south regions are known to be not so up-to-date | 20:15 |
theglass | so to speak | 20:15 |
theglass | with severa exceptions btw | 20:15 |
theglass | several* | 20:15 |
mefistofeles | oh hell, it's raining... | 20:17 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:09 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 20:17 |
LjL | 34 :| | 20:17 |
LjL | it still just said 29! | 20:17 |
LjL | not just the bot, these other numbers too | 20:17 |
contingo | Spec yes but more in folded sheet than bubble form | 20:18 |
Spec | mefistofeles: but how does RAIN impact distribution and spread of COVID-19 | 20:18 |
Spec | contingo: ah, okay, yeah, i've seen some depictions like that | 20:18 |
contingo | idk if topologically they overall all unfold into bubbles | 20:18 |
Spec | contingo: i was also looking up RNA world theory because of ljl | 20:18 |
Spec | and a bit of that is speculation around these lipids | 20:18 |
LjL | Spec, he loathes abiogenesis things! | 20:18 |
contingo | ah as LjL will tell you | 20:19 |
contingo | lol | 20:19 |
Spec | welcome back ChanServ | 20:19 |
Spec | contingo: :P | 20:19 |
python476 | Spec: I more concerned about IRAN than RAIN | 20:19 |
python476 | #rimshot | 20:19 |
Spec | iran doesn't seem like its in a great situation | 20:19 |
mefistofeles | lol | 20:19 |
contingo | I mostly like studying extant diversity and what happened once things already started getting going | 20:20 |
contingo | post-LUCA stuff | 20:20 |
Spec | LUCA? | 20:20 |
python476 | Toto shall release a new song called Irun | 20:20 |
Spec | contingo: my interest, i think, is in MACHINES, hahaha | 20:20 |
python476 | "I bless the rains down in Irania" | 20:20 |
contingo | last universal common ancestor | 20:20 |
Spec | and to find out it's just a whole world of micro machines :P | 20:20 |
Spec | contingo: oh, have we identified such a thing? | 20:21 |
Spec | contingo: and did that change with that recent discovery or an organism without mitochondria (is that the recent thing we found?) | 20:21 |
LjL | theglass, oh... on february 24 they upped the checkpoints around the red zone by bringing in the army, did you know that | 20:21 |
contingo | yeah | 20:21 |
LjL | and still... i believe 18 people tried to flee | 20:21 |
contingo | no | 20:21 |
LjL | (and someone made a video and was arrested) | 20:21 |
LjL | (these days everyone self-incriminates by video) | 20:21 |
ubLIX | that Dr Campbell youtube fellow said that at various shrines, in Iran, they have this habit of rubbing their hands all over a "blessing wall", then rubbing their faces to transfer the blessing - I think by now they must finally have stopped doing this | 20:22 |
contingo | no prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) have mitchondria anyway so I'm not sure what you mean | 20:22 |
contingo | oh, you mean the myxozoan... it's just the first animal showing secondary loss of mitochondria | 20:23 |
contingo | there are other exceptional eukaryotes without mitochondria | 20:24 |
LjL | %wa 34/1694 | 20:24 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (34/1694): Decimal approximation: 0.020070838252656434474616292798110979929161747343565525383... → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=34%2F1694 | 20:24 |
theglass | I read about it, LjL | 20:24 |
LjL | that's... less than 3%, even less than 2.5%, good news maybe? | 20:24 |
LjL | ubLIX, i saw that, i wouldn't bet on it | 20:25 |
Spec | contingo: oh right, it showed a LOSS of it | 20:25 |
LjL | ubLIX, he's not a doctor in medicine by the way, he's a retired nurse, says so in the about page. nothing wrong with that, but, just saying, i assumed MD when reading his name and the subject matter | 20:25 |
contingo | the LUCA is ancestral to all those groups | 20:25 |
fructose | https://nextstrain.org/ncov | 20:25 |
Spec | contingo: is LUCA ancestral to virus? | 20:26 |
LjL | contingo, just am i wrong in remembering that some of the earliest organisms we know about, or infer the existence of, probably already had a cell and DNA inside it, about as long ago as the earth has existed? | 20:26 |
Spec | WKFO | 20:26 |
LjL | fructose, ok, that definitely goes into the topic list | 20:27 |
ubLIX | interesting, LjL. i hadn't bothered to look at the about page | 20:27 |
LjL | although i am not sure i have a clue how to interpret it | 20:27 |
Spec | these things are strains that have been sequenced and show mutations of some sort? | 20:27 |
contingo | different groups of viruses have independent origins, some of them might predate the LUCA | 20:27 |
Spec | independent origins! | 20:28 |
mefistofeles | that's a nice visualization indeed | 20:28 |
contingo | oh that's rad | 20:29 |
LjL | fructose, * [Nextstrain philogeny](https://nextstrain.org/ncov) of the virus strains by area and various other criteria | 20:29 |
LjL | sound good as a description of that? | 20:30 |
Spec | contingo: what is your Concern about this covid business? | 20:30 |
Spec | should I assume covid is outside my doorstep if i live in LittleKorea in USA? | 20:30 |
WKFO | i'm sorry, wanted to say something to me Spec? | 20:31 |
Spec | WKFO: i did not, i only wanted to exclaim your name | 20:31 |
fructose | LjL: No | 20:31 |
LjL | fructose, just in time, i was changing the topic | 20:31 |
LjL | can you provide something better? | 20:32 |
Spec | WKFO: you're an astronomer? | 20:32 |
twomoon | hi ljl , is it okay to use betadine mouth rinse five times a day? | 20:32 |
WKFO | Spec: amateur | 20:32 |
LjL | twomoon, uh, i've no idea | 20:32 |
Spec | WKFO: me too! | 20:32 |
twomoon | any have experience with this? someone recommended betadine as a way to kill bacteria and viruses | 20:32 |
LjL | twomoon, does it contain alcohol? or chlorexidine? | 20:32 |
WKFO | great | 20:32 |
fructose | LjL: "Strain" is too strong of a word. There are variations that are helpful in tracing it, but aren't a distinct strain | 20:32 |
twomoon | it contains iodine, neither alcohol nor chlorhexidine | 20:32 |
Spec | WKFO: can i pm you like, 5 images :P | 20:33 |
LjL | fructose, better if i just change it to "variants" then? | 20:33 |
twomoon | i was thinking i could get an iodine overdose by using it too much | 20:33 |
WKFO | Spec: of course go ahead | 20:33 |
LjL | twomoon, it should probably be okay, but respect whatever the label says | 20:33 |
LjL | if it says twice a day, use twice a day | 20:33 |
twomoon | ok | 20:33 |
fructose | LjL: I'd just say "genomic epidemiology" | 20:33 |
LjL | fructose, i feel that's a bit cryptic for laymen, but then, so is the site, so okay | 20:34 |
fructose | LjL: As it should be | 20:34 |
mefistofeles | fructose: what's the x-axis distance in that dendogram? | 20:34 |
mefistofeles | oh I see, time | 20:35 |
mefistofeles | so not actual phylogenetic distance | 20:35 |
LjL | fructose, well, this channel is not exactly a "let only those in the know know" kind of place | 20:35 |
fructose | LjL: No, but simplifying it for laypeople has more risks than benefits | 20:36 |
LjL | fair | 20:36 |
LjL | fructose, do you know of any preliminary studies on any phenotype difference in this variations yet? (namely why are we dying more) | 20:36 |
LjL | i guess i should look at whether the italian variant is anything like the iranian variant | 20:37 |
ubLIX | why derange your microbiome's natural homeostasis at all, though (twomoon), unless told to do so by a doctor? | 20:37 |
LjL | but... which italian variant are they calling italian? | 20:37 |
LjL | the initial three cases in rome, or the actual clusters now | 20:37 |
mefistofeles | hmm interesting | 20:37 |
twomoon | yeah good point ublix | 20:37 |
mefistofeles | the Italy one has a missense variation | 20:37 |
twomoon | but mouthwashes are pretty common aren't they? they don't affect gut microbiome afaik | 20:37 |
LjL | mefistofeles, a what | 20:37 |
fructose | LjL: No. My first guess would be differences in testing and data transparency, rather than changes in the virus. | 20:37 |
mefistofeles | LjL: a variation that changes the amino acid | 20:38 |
LjL | also it places the circle in Rome... while for France, it places it in specific places i tihink | 20:38 |
ubLIX | they affect your mouth and throat's microbiome though | 20:38 |
twomoon | he means missense mutation | 20:38 |
fructose | LjL: Though changes can happen | 20:38 |
LjL | mefistofeles, ugh, does it? that gives me bad vibes | 20:38 |
LjL | fructose, what about what mefistofeles just said? | 20:38 |
ubLIX | and you will inevitably swallow some small quantity | 20:38 |
LjL | mefistofeles, also are you saying it based on that page or | 20:38 |
mefistofeles | LjL: in that page fructose pasted, yes | 20:38 |
LjL | Iran hasn't isolated the genome? | 20:39 |
fructose | LjL: A single amino acid substitution isn't enough to make those kinds of guesses | 20:39 |
LjL | well, has it happened in other "variations"? | 20:40 |
contingo | Spec, idk, as I said before it's fun to prep anyway, you can buy loads of long-life Korean stir fry kits | 20:40 |
mefistofeles | LjL: yes, it has | 20:40 |
twomoon | missense variation could be within the accepted level of error of the dna sequencing system. is this true mefistofeles ? | 20:41 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i'm sorry i am unable to figure out how you figured that out from the page | 20:41 |
mefistofeles | twomoon: depends on how they sequenced it, not sure if this is curated or just raw data | 20:41 |
Spec | contingo: :) | 20:42 |
mefistofeles | but I'd think these should use some NGS with high depth, so a single variation should be solved | 20:42 |
mefistofeles | I mean, even considering errors | 20:42 |
mefistofeles | I mean, the genome size is fairly small, so you should have a nice coverage and depth for this | 20:43 |
tinwhiskers | cool. ok | 20:45 |
twomoon | ok thx mefistofeles keep teaching me | 20:47 |
mefistofeles | well, gtg | 20:50 |
twomoon | stay safe | 20:50 |
mefistofeles | sure | 20:50 |
Tobi[m] | What’s the room alias? | 20:52 |
Tobi[m] | Can’t set an custom alias | 20:53 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:37 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: UK fears of undetected cases grow as 12 more test positive → https://is.gd/usqOjz | 20:54 |
pwr22 | So apparently the person who left the UK for Shenzhen and then tested positive - they were working in Bristol | 20:56 |
pwr22 | Which is where I live 🤦♂️ | 20:56 |
Spec | bristol! | 20:56 |
Tobi[m] | <Tobi[m] "What’s the room alias?"> ??? | 20:59 |
Tobi[m] | Give me a link pls | 20:59 |
contingo | Bristol, nice | 21:00 |
contingo | I don't know what the room alias link would be | 21:00 |
Tobi[m] | #something :Matrix.org I guess. Admins should see it as they didn’t allow custom alias names.... for whatever reason | 21:01 |
contingo | this is ##covid-19 on freenode, an IRC network. I don't know how it connects to matrix | 21:02 |
contingo | but I'm sure LjL will tell you after dinner | 21:02 |
Spec | oh, ljl probably connects them | 21:03 |
Spec | via magic | 21:03 |
petersjt014[m] | I think it's relayed thru @appservice-irc:matrix.org | 21:03 |
twomoon | should i get an ultraviolet sterilizing light bulb? | 21:04 |
twomoon | i'm just trying to think of things i can get that have a lot of bang for the buck | 21:04 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:56 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 21:06 |
Tobi[m] | twomoon: not helping with the virus | 21:07 |
Spec | twomoon: i was wondering about that | 21:09 |
Spec | Tobi[m]: no? | 21:09 |
pwr22 | Tobi #covid-19:matrix.org | 21:09 |
Spec | %data USA | 21:09 |
Brainstorm | Spec: Sorry, USA not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 21:09 |
petersjt014[m] | %date United States | 21:10 |
Spec | %data United States | 21:10 |
Brainstorm | Spec: Sorry, United States not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 21:10 |
Spec | %data The United States of America | 21:10 |
Brainstorm | Spec: Sorry, The United States of America not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 21:10 |
petersjt014[m] | %data United States | 21:10 |
Brainstorm | petersjt014[m]: Sorry, United States not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 21:10 |
Spec | haha | 21:10 |
Tobi[m] | <Spec "Tobi: no?"> I’ve copies some of the WHO advises: https://kabi.tk/2019-ncov/ | 21:10 |
Tobi[m] | Also about the light | 21:11 |
pwr22 | %data us | 21:11 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: In Australia, there are 26 cases, 1 deaths (3.8% of cases), 15 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 20:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 21:11 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 6.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 21:11 |
pwr22 | Lol | 21:11 |
Spec | errrr | 21:11 |
Spec | this says "UV lamps should not be used to sterilize hands or other areas of skin as UV radiation can cause skin irritation" | 21:12 |
Spec | so UV lamps can sterilize our doors/things we touch inside the house, etc | 21:12 |
Spec | ? | 21:12 |
pwr22 | %data uk | 21:12 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: In UK, there are 36 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 8 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 20:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 21:12 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 21:12 |
Spec | what's the fancy word for surfaces that spread virus | 21:12 |
ubLIX | fomites? | 21:12 |
Spec | fomite | 21:12 |
Spec | surely we can sterilize the fomites w/ UV lamps? or does UV not break down the virus? | 21:12 |
Spec | this page does not clear tha tup | 21:13 |
twomoon | hi Spec | 21:13 |
Spec | hello twomoon, would you like me to share with you a picture i have of our one moon? | 21:13 |
Tobi[m] | Just copied from WHO, let’s investigate that | 21:13 |
twomoon | UV LED lamps (or flourescent ones) take forever to kill bacteria but i suspect they kill viruses much faster | 21:13 |
Spec | what? | 21:14 |
ubLIX | sterilising surfaces with UV lamps sounds a lot more labour intensive than just using 70% alcohol or bleach solutions | 21:14 |
Spec | twomoon: i thought UV was fast and used in "real time" water purification systems | 21:14 |
twomoon | depends on the intensity | 21:14 |
Spec | ubLIX: well, spraying alcohol everywhere is worse for your lungs than waving a light around :P :P | 21:14 |
twomoon | the low power UV purification systems don't kill all the bacteria and they still take several minutes to work | 21:15 |
ubLIX | sure, but you don't need to spray it | 21:15 |
Spec | twomoon: i see | 21:15 |
twomoon | they just reduce the bacteria below an acceptable treshold | 21:15 |
Tobi[m] | Afaik for bacteria but not viruses | 21:15 |
Spec | ubLIX: yeah, i guess | 21:15 |
Spec | i'm mostly thinking in a disinfect a house sort of situation | 21:15 |
petersjt014[m] | Fun fact: you can kill viruses with mechanical/crushing force. | 21:15 |
petersjt014[m] | It's extremely hard. | 21:16 |
twomoon | hah | 21:17 |
Spec | petersjt014[m]: lol | 21:17 |
ubLIX | you may have three wishes | 21:17 |
Spec | alright, thanks for entertaining my basic level questions, i'll be back with more later! | 21:19 |
petersjt014[m] | > * Spec rubs his house | 21:20 |
petersjt014[m] | Soooo remember the part where I said 'hard'? | 21:20 |
petersjt014[m] | Yeah ur house not gonna be there anymore | 21:20 |
ubLIX | LjL: interesting take: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article | 21:43 |
ubLIX | specifically: "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively." | 21:51 |
twomoon | hi mefistofeles | 21:58 |
mefistofeles | hey twomoon | 21:58 |
RougeR | https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2020/mar/01/ben-jennings-uk-response-coronavirus-outbreak-cartoon#img-1 | 22:20 |
python476 | 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-7O-fIYSsY | 22:45 |
LjL | bleh i wanted to read the sciency discussion above but i closed the tab so now it means all the nicks are non-colored making it much harder to read | 22:51 |
LjL | anyone have a post-hoc nick colorer for logs ;( | 22:52 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, looks like you had higher (unofficial) numbers before but now they've went back to lower | 22:56 |
LjL | like: 7 cases greece, now back to 4 | 22:56 |
LjL | (italy also, but much higher numbers so i don't remember exactly, but we are at 1700ish according to TV) | 22:56 |
tinwhiskers | ah. interesting | 22:56 |
LjL | 41 dead in italy going by the TV | 22:56 |
LjL | %cases Italy | 22:56 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 1128 cases, 29 deaths (2.6% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 01, 2020, 21:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/ for time series data. | 22:56 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 38.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 22:56 |
LjL | 29 dead was yesterday's number, we were at 34 (or 36?) before it jumped to 41 | 22:57 |
LjL | while... no new recoveries :( | 22:57 |
LjL | i am *straining* not to think of a bad reason for these facts | 22:57 |
LjL | if you know what i mean by strain | 22:57 |
tinwhiskers | hrm. Looks like my server has been banned from connecting to the better of the sources :-( | 22:57 |
LjL | ... | 22:58 |
tinwhiskers | Italy shows as 1694 there | 22:58 |
LjL | that matches | 22:58 |
LjL | how often were you polling? | 22:58 |
tinwhiskers | every 30 mins | 22:58 |
LjL | wow | 22:58 |
LjL | they're a bit... i dunno | 22:58 |
LjL | not nice | 22:58 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, did you send an identifiable useragent? | 22:59 |
python476 | we're going back to 1694 population levels ? | 22:59 |
tinwhiskers | oh, no. I can get it via wget still. Must be something about my request header | 22:59 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but does the wget have the same useragent | 22:59 |
tinwhiskers | I'll need to look into it | 23:00 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i can offer alternative ip addresses for the polling, potentially, although we'd have to figure out how to set that up | 23:01 |
tinwhiskers | Nah, this is fixable | 23:01 |
LjL | well if they are not actively hindering you, i suppose | 23:01 |
LjL | i want to hope they aren't because this is not about proprietary weather forecasts or something | 23:02 |
tinwhiskers | Well, they've changed something that is now refusing my connection, but it doesn't refuse a standard wget request so they're blocking something that they weren't previously. I just need to figure out why my user agent looks different to wget. | 23:06 |
tinwhiskers | but it's more likely they are watching so they may take further action | 23:06 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, what are you using to scrape? python= | 23:09 |
LjL | in wget you can pass --user-agent=blah | 23:09 |
LjL | but obviously you need to know what your original useragent is | 23:09 |
tinwhiskers | ok, that's going again... for now. | 23:15 |
twomoon | what were you trying to scrape? | 23:16 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, have you established the aetiology? | 23:18 |
LjL | iow what was the issue | 23:18 |
python476 | let's make the web page realtime websocket based with xml-rpc messages exchanges through reverse proxy application servers | 23:19 |
python476 | sorry, my cat walked on my laptop | 23:19 |
LjL | mhm that was the idea | 23:19 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:19 UTC: What happens if coronavirus spreads in Australia?: Covid-19 is spreading around the globe but Australia has not yet had a case of community transmission. That is likely to change → https://is.gd/HPXFFP | 23:30 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:26 UTC: Coronavirus: Italy death toll rises to 34 as Dominican Republic reports first case – latest updates: US, Australia and Thailand also report first deaths from coronavirus while bans are put in place around the world on large gatherings. Follow live news → https://is.gd/sRlm06 | 23:43 |
fructose | python476: My cat frequently pukes after eating. Not as gross as XML, but I sympathize. | 23:46 |
python476 | puke-schema.org | 23:49 |
python476 | i swear if I do a language, Ill call the prototype pukelang | 23:49 |
ubLIX | https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ER31t2_WoAAIL45?format=jpg&name=small | 23:59 |
LjL | groan | 23:59 |
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