| fructose | https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642 | 00:28 |
|---|---|---|
| fructose | Washington State analysis, but possibly reflects similar spread elsewhere | 00:28 |
| LjL-Phone | But really the 10mbps fiber was better. At least the physical fiber wasn't so thin it breaks just by the building vibrating when a train passes, probably | 00:56 |
| LjL-Phone | How... | 00:56 |
| LjL-Phone | How the hell is Brainstorm back here | 00:56 |
| LjL-Phone | I didn't turn my router back on | 00:56 |
| LjL-Phone | Or, well, actually I did | 00:56 |
| LjL-Phone | Whoops | 00:56 |
| LjL-Phone | Bye! | 00:56 |
| ubLX | phew | 00:57 |
| ubLX | for a second there i thought the singularity was here | 00:57 |
| LjL | and hello | 00:57 |
| LjL | ubLX, yeah it was uncanny at first | 00:57 |
| LjL | then it wasn't | 00:57 |
| LjL | then when i realized my memory can't go back 60 seconds | 00:57 |
| Brainstorm | ubLX: At 2020-03-02 21:52:35 UTC, LjL told you: dangerous but a necessity | 00:57 |
| LjL | it was somewhat uncanny again | 00:57 |
| python476 | I think my DSL tops at 10Mbps too | 00:58 |
| python476 | anyway | 00:58 |
| python476 | virus spread faster than bits around me #rimshot | 00:59 |
| LjL | sudo apt install clamav-daemon | 00:59 |
| python476 | sudo apt update covid-19-git | 01:00 |
| LjL | that's not even a real command | 01:01 |
| python476 | LjL it is | 01:01 |
| python476 | 01:01 | |
| python476 | 1,501 Iran update on plague.com | 01:01 |
| LjL | update doesn't take parameters | 01:01 |
| LjL | oh i forgot i had heard of this plague.com and then never checked it | 01:01 |
| LjL | also now i don't remember what i was looking up on google before my router crashed | 01:01 |
| LjL | or whatever happened | 01:01 |
| LjL | i rebooted all the things before i had internet again | 01:02 |
| LjL | computer, router, modem | 01:02 |
| LjL | even a desk lamp | 01:02 |
| LjL | oh it's just the JHU map | 01:02 |
| LjL | must admit this url is easier to remember | 01:02 |
| python476 | plague.com === arcgis | 01:03 |
| python476 | just easier to type | 01:03 |
| python476 | yeah | 01:03 |
| python476 | it's a bit too dark humor.. but really easier | 01:03 |
| LjL | well the actual link is a bit longer than "arcgis" anyway | 01:04 |
| LjL | %covid iran | 01:04 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Iran, there are 1501 cases, 66 deaths (4.4% of cases), 291 recoveries as of March 02, 2020, 23:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran for time series data. | 01:04 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 18.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:04 |
| LjL | 4.4% nice, is that what we'll get when our healthcare goes all italian | 01:04 |
| LjL | or iranian, not sure it makes a difference | 01:04 |
| LjL | %covid italy | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 2036 cases, 52 deaths (2.6% of cases), 149 recoveries as of March 02, 2020, 23:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 25.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:05 |
| python476 | %covid france | 01:08 |
| Brainstorm | python476: In France, there are 191 cases, 3 deaths (1.6% of cases), 12 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 00:03 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 01:08 |
| Brainstorm | python476: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 20.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:08 |
| LjL | so | 01:12 |
| LjL | who is it that DOES still have masks | 01:12 |
| LjL | i can pay for them in nature | 01:12 |
| python476 | you mean ferraris ? | 01:12 |
| LjL | not infected, you can swab me | 01:12 |
| python476 | I don't want your tomato sauce | 01:12 |
| LjL | who would | 01:13 |
| LjL | it tastes better than dutch tomatoes | 01:13 |
| LjL | but that's because dead bodies contain many nutrients for the plants | 01:13 |
| python476 | is there anything dutch that tastes good ? | 01:13 |
| LjL | i had some very good gouda once | 01:13 |
| LjL | i bought it in italy though, might have been counterfeited | 01:14 |
| LjL | maybe it was really really aged parmesan | 01:14 |
| python476 | heh | 01:14 |
| python476 | now I'm hungry | 01:14 |
| python476 | damn you italian ! | 01:14 |
| LjL | python476, oh i know the trick to stop the hunger | 01:14 |
| LjL | just think of french food | 01:14 |
| python476 | instructions unclear, I'm now opening a restaurant | 01:15 |
| LjL | okay, i'll send the local mob to break your legs in case you don't pay the pizzo | 01:15 |
| LjL | i think that's the official procedure for it | 01:16 |
| LjL | don't thank me | 01:16 |
| LjL | ubLX, my herbal tea tastes... different... since i've stopped squeezing the bag with my fingers to push all the water back into the cup and make it darker | 01:16 |
| LjL | this virus is basically destroying my habits! | 01:16 |
| LjL | it's like just half a cup now | 01:17 |
| ubLX | is it barbaric to just leave the (herbal) tea bag in the cup - they're never as strong as black tea | 01:17 |
| ubLX | come to think of it, don't some of the herbals explicitly say to leave the bag in? | 01:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:15 UTC: Coronavirus: Trump weighs new travel limits after sixth death in Washington: More than 100 confirmed cases in US Outbreak at nursing home near Seattle linked to four deaths WHO says world in ‘unchartered territory’ Donald Trump signaled on Monday afternoon that he is considering additional travel restrictions [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XBRvDn | 01:20 |
| ubLX | is the ‘unchartered territory’ aspect just referring to inept governance or some clinical aspect | 01:21 |
| LjL | ubLX, what would be surpremely annoying, getting my face bagged all the time | 01:21 |
| LjL | wait... can teabags being sewed into makeshift face masks | 01:21 |
| LjL | ubLX, i think they mean to convey the P-word without saying the P-word | 01:22 |
| ubLX | Pandemonium? | 01:22 |
| LjL | similar | 01:23 |
| LjL | also someone is going all neurotic at me about the fact the CDC is allegedly not testing people, and now hiding the number of tests they perform | 01:24 |
| LjL | but i cannot really try to follow tweets with alleged information in them | 01:24 |
| ubLX | i clicked through | 01:24 |
| ubLX | The WHO boss, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has warned that the world has “never seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can be contained with the right measures”. He said containment must be the top priority for all countries and that there is “no one-size fits all approach”. | 01:24 |
| contingo | what herbs are you drinking? | 01:24 |
| LjL | but if they really have changed their website this way, it's a bit shoddy https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1234536619270688768 | 01:24 |
| LjL | contingo, eh just a supermarket mixture of "sleep-helping" herbs, you wouldn't even stop to pick one up for free | 01:25 |
| contingo | fair enough | 01:27 |
| ubLX | idk what he could mean by "contain" though. aren't we past containment at this point? or does he mean bringing R below 1 is top priority? | 01:28 |
| LjL | ubLX, there's doublespeak, i think i mentioned this about that one press conference i actually listened to and transcribed | 01:29 |
| LjL | he basically says countries should do containment and think about it as if they're really doing containment, because that helps | 01:29 |
| LjL | but the result will ultimately just be mitigation | 01:29 |
| LjL | but ssssh | 01:29 |
| LjL | but it's okay, he's right i think, it's just a little counterintuitive | 01:30 |
| LjL | and this drips down to what they tell people [not] to do | 01:30 |
| LjL | which is more of an issue | 01:30 |
| LjL | because when people hear seemingly conflicting information, they start to panic, or assume conspiracies, or things like that | 01:30 |
| LjL | "masks do nothing!" "N95 masks work, the others do nothing!" "actually all masks work!" | 01:31 |
| LjL | not helpful | 01:31 |
| contingo | should I cancel going to my photography equipment extravaganza convention thing then :( | 01:31 |
| ubLX | well, "flatting the curve" (spreading out new cases over time) will obviously help mitigate medical shortages, which is also containment of a sort, i suppose | 01:31 |
| LjL | contingo, where? | 01:32 |
| LjL | ubLX, the real epidemic here is semantics | 01:32 |
| contingo | at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham, https://www.photographyshow.com/ | 01:33 |
| LjL | ubLX, but yes. some countries are almost keeping the cases where they are. most are failing at that, but look at Japan and Singapore... the numbers are important, but growing linearly | 01:33 |
| LjL | if they have 1000 hospital bed, they'll keep them busy with 1000 people, and that's hard but doable | 01:33 |
| ubLX | that there are two meanings of containment? precluding pandemic, and subduing pandemic? | 01:33 |
| LjL | not if they double every day like italy | 01:33 |
| LjL | ubLX, no, containment is precluding it (using WHO terminology), while subduing it would be "mitigation" | 01:34 |
| LjL | but the WHO still insists we must do both | 01:34 |
| LjL | and while containment will probably fail, we must act as if it didn't | 01:34 |
| LjL | because at least in some parts of the world it's not failing | 01:34 |
| LjL | and that will help... mitigate things | 01:34 |
| LjL | but if you jump the gun and call that mitigation, governments won't do the same things | 01:34 |
| LjL | i mean don't shoot the messenger, i'm just parroting the WHO director with the very unrememberable name | 01:35 |
| ubLX | oh just checked plot of germany and italy at offloop - both plots hinting at a summit? | 01:38 |
| ubLX | for confirmed new cases | 01:38 |
| LjL | %cases germany | 01:39 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Germany, there are 165 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 00:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 01:39 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 01:39 |
| LjL | ubLX, i wouldn't feel excited too soon, sometimes china published diminishing numbers but then it was just a day's fluke | 01:39 |
| LjL | ubLX, also look at the italy graph alone, it looks like the last day, new cases are reducing, but then the day before, cases grew *more* than exponentially compared to the previous parts of the graph | 01:40 |
| LjL | so it sort of even outs really | 01:40 |
| LjL | more like the second dot from the right being a bit out of place than anything | 01:41 |
| LjL | germany, i'd say it's still a bit too early to look at the shape of the graph | 01:41 |
| ubLX | hmm | 01:43 |
| LjL | ubLX, here are some of the Graphs of the Virtuous https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan,Singapore,Vietnam,Hong%20Kong,Taiwan | 01:43 |
| LjL | they don't look like italy or germany | 01:44 |
| LjL | even Japan, worrying as it looks, is as linear as a Japanese train's timetable | 01:44 |
| contingo | "so you take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that would have an impact, or much of an impact on corona?" | 01:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:30 UTC: Australian politics: Australians can be detained under coronavirus biosecurity laws, attorney general says – politics live → https://is.gd/itzmoF | 01:45 |
| contingo | (-Trump) | 01:47 |
| ubLX | 'Fauci’s understated reply came quickly: “Probably not.”' | 01:50 |
| contingo | a private charter jet from here to Singapore would be around £100K | 01:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:45 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: WHO says world in 'uncharted territory': UK draws up ‘feed the nation’ contingency plans as Australia considers banning mass gatherings and Italy records 52 deaths. Follow live news → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 01:51 |
| Timvde | contingo: Is Trump somehow claiming that a flu vaccine would work? | 01:52 |
| LjL | contingo, well that's not too bad from Trump, i wouldn't expect him to understand that | 01:53 |
| contingo | no, he asked a panel of advisors if it would work in what seemed for him to be an innocent spirit of enquiry | 01:53 |
| LjL | contingo, i'm being linked to https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04264533 and http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n12.shtml in places that i'm usually very wary of (see: same person just telling me that Wuhan has worse mortality because they're "poor people eating bats and rats") | 01:54 |
| Timvde | Oh, if it was an honest question, that does seem less bad than I'm used from him :P | 01:54 |
| contingo | like, maybe you experts hadn't thought to use the really solid flu vaccines? | 01:54 |
| LjL | but, well, they're studies, they try gigantic doses of vitamin C, they say they kinda work when the pneumonia is bad | 01:54 |
| contingo | they said no and he did the pursed lips nod head thing | 01:54 |
| LjL | contingo, that's the classic Hollywood sign of a solid decision-maker getting the data from his advisors | 01:55 |
| LjL | i'm sure he can imitate it well | 01:55 |
| LjL | <nickname> im not saying they got this virus because they eat rats and bats, this isnt somthing that really needs citation. And yes its racist to not eat chinease food because you think they are trying to pass Garfield for chicken. | 01:58 |
| LjL | <nickname> they got the virus because they had the virus in research just a block away from a major food market. | 01:58 |
| LjL | <nickname> it leaked in the worst place possible and infected many rapidly. | 01:58 |
| LjL | <nickname> in a market that also happened to be selling live rats and bats for use as food. | 01:58 |
| LjL | <LjL> you know none of this is conclusively proven, right? | 01:58 |
| LjL | <LjL> i am aware of the connections, but they are mainly that | 01:58 |
| contingo | how are you stopping people like that from joining here? | 02:23 |
| LjL | contingo, sometimes i fail at that, but mainly, i don't mention this channel anywhere to anyone | 02:26 |
| LjL | i've broken the rule a couple of times | 02:26 |
| LjL | it's resulted in annoyances both times | 02:26 |
| contingo | so i shouldn't broadcast it? | 02:27 |
| LjL | contingo, you do what you want, it's not a secret cabal | 02:27 |
| LjL | i presume the moderate but consistent amount of people in it so far haven't all joined by sheer chance | 02:27 |
| LjL | i'm just saying it often works badly for me | 02:28 |
| LjL | also, if *i* get people in here, and then i have to kick them, it generally gets unpleasant | 02:28 |
| LjL | while if they're just here for reasons that i have no awareness of... | 02:28 |
| contingo | I've only felt moved to exercise authority a few times | 02:30 |
| sneep | I haven't been kicked yet \o/ | 02:34 |
| protectess | Hi. I'm sick. Am I supposed to go outside and cough as much as I can on children? | 02:35 |
| contingo | the guy I'd be staying with in Birmingham is a hospital doctor | 02:36 |
| contingo | so I will attend or not attend the gearfest according to his guidance | 02:36 |
| protectess | contingo: lick on children, that might help | 02:36 |
| contingo | but then maybe I'm at more risk from him than anyone | 02:36 |
| contingo | is licking on children procedurally different from just licking children? | 02:37 |
| LjL | sneep, nor run over! | 02:37 |
| protectess | contingo: the latter might mean something dirty. | 02:37 |
| LjL | protectess, usually jokes on repeat are best reserved for when you haven't just joined a channel ten seconds ago | 02:37 |
| contingo | So too the former. | 02:38 |
| protectess | LjL: that's subjective | 02:38 |
| LjL | yeah | 02:39 |
| protectess | LjL: we got no statistics on that statement | 02:39 |
| protectess | btw, should I inject my blood into all living things as a method of vaccination when I'm sick? | 02:39 |
| LjL | well, the hard data should be based on how likely people exhibiting that behavior are to be removed from the channel where the behavior occurs | 02:39 |
| protectess | oh, don't be an ass. Go ahead and remove me, thank you, excellent op. First thing the op does: seeks conflict. What an ASS. | 02:40 |
| LjL | gee now you've made me feel bad | 02:40 |
| protectess | Actually, I won't give you the pleasure, cunt. Go and fuck yourself. | 02:40 |
| LjL | without even k | 02:40 |
| LjL | ubLX, see? this is why i'm a better op when i'm not an op | 02:41 |
| LjL | anyone could have done that | 02:41 |
| LjL | especially when the access list is private | 02:41 |
| ggz | hi | 02:42 |
| contingo | do not be alarmed, yuriwho | 02:42 |
| contingo | that incident was not representative | 02:42 |
| contingo | hi ggz | 02:42 |
| ns0s[m] | Is this a political room or something designed for OSINIT around COVID-19? | 02:42 |
| yuriwho | lol | 02:42 |
| LjL | the answer is... no? | 02:42 |
| LjL | it's a room about COVID-19. i guess as long as it stays within reasonable lines of non-absurdity, it's all good | 02:43 |
| LjL | it's mainly a place where people calm me down when i panic really | 02:43 |
| LjL | based on precedents | 02:43 |
| contingo | some well-informed people with various degrees of relevant professional experience contribute here and there | 02:45 |
| ns0s[m] | I popped in just to see what sort of info on Corona was being spread but so far it seems sparse. Not sure why you need calming down but I'm glad you found a place for it with precedent. So, I'll hang out for a bit and see what comes out of it. | 02:45 |
| LjL | ns0s[m], cool | 02:46 |
| LjL | ns0s[m], there's not a whole lot of info really that's coming in just yet, it would be nice if there were a little more | 02:46 |
| ns0s[m] | Oregon's third presumptive case of COVID-19 coronavirus: Person works at Wildhorse Resort & Casino. | 02:46 |
| LjL | we have numeric data but at some point those only tell you so much | 02:46 |
| LjL | %cases US | 02:46 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In US, there are 102 cases, 6 deaths (5.9% of cases), 9 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 01:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 02:46 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: It's too early to even try to estimate mortality in this area. | 02:46 |
| LjL | %cases Oregon | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Sorry, Oregon not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 02:47 |
| LjL | (really, /me stares at USgov) | 02:47 |
| ns0s[m] | What about things like this? | 02:47 |
| LjL | i don't have something like that. but the room topic does have a number of interesting link | 02:48 |
| LjL | some are interesting at any rate | 02:48 |
| LjL | there's the CMMID links with simulations of spread | 02:48 |
| LjL | that's sort of cool | 02:48 |
| ubLX | couple of links before i sign off for the night: | 02:49 |
| ubLX | propublica goes into somewhat great depth in a narrative way on a variety of subjects (American focus): https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test | 02:49 |
| LjL | ns0s[m], the human coronavirus certainly don't seem to be very popular in our noses | 02:49 |
| ubLX | and another inviting contributions from healthcare workers for a followup article: https://www.propublica.org/getinvolved/we-want-to-talk-to-people-working-or-living-on-the-front-lines-of-coronavirus-help-us-report | 02:50 |
| tinwhiskers | %cases Portland, OR | 02:50 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: Sorry, Portland, OR not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 02:50 |
| tinwhiskers | :-( | 02:50 |
| ns0s[m] | Sorry, don't know where my link for that went. Give me a few. | 02:51 |
| ns0s[m] | https://twitter.com/fox12oregon/status/1234594336744071173?s=21 | 02:51 |
| LjL | hm, i think ubLX's second link is worth of adding to the main list | 02:53 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i have found a think you might be jealous of | 02:53 |
| LjL | well, envious | 02:53 |
| LjL | i know people use that wrong, i shouldn't | 02:53 |
| tinwhiskers | o.O | 02:53 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, https://covid19.health/ | 02:54 |
| LjL | it's not very up to date but it's like FANCY | 02:54 |
| tinwhiskers | Ah. Nice | 02:54 |
| tinwhiskers | You also can't compare countries though | 02:55 |
| tinwhiskers | But it is very fancy | 02:55 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, you can see transmissions | 02:55 |
| LjL | animated! | 02:55 |
| LjL | by which i mean... | 02:56 |
| LjL | you can see that China started it, but WE made it worldwide | 02:56 |
| LjL | Spec, ↑ | 02:56 |
| tinwhiskers | Snazzy | 02:57 |
| swift110 | hey all | 02:57 |
| tinwhiskers | hey swift110 | 02:59 |
| LjL | also sort of one of a kind... though terrible colors... https://covid19info.live/ | 03:01 |
| LjL | China is basically at zero new infections, isn't it | 03:02 |
| LjL | where zero is probably still a pretty large number, just not for China | 03:02 |
| ggz | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw | 03:07 |
| pwr22 | These recent links finally work well on mobile 🤯 | 03:11 |
| contingo | at this stage someone might be able to do mapping of mortality and R0 traits on that phylogeny of all fully sequenced samples and test for correlated genetic changes | 03:12 |
| ggz | there is now a case in senegal, do you think africa will be totally infected ? | 03:13 |
| LjL | contingo, spoilers: Italy has high mortality and an evilly mutated strain | 03:17 |
| yuriwho | not a bad idea contingo, I know Toronto is sequencing all +ve's here | 03:17 |
| contingo | I think I don't know | 03:17 |
| swift110 | hey tinwhiskers how are you | 03:18 |
| swift110 | oh wow | 03:18 |
| LjL | ggz, seem that youtube before, but is it actually more "live" (in terms of data freshness) than the freshest of the normal sites? if not, i guess it's good for a huge monitor if you're a civil protection agency or something, but not great for people's laptops | 03:18 |
| swift110 | why are these people constantly travelling when there is an epidemic going on | 03:18 |
| LjL | swift110, why were my parents still going to all supermarkets they could find until they were finally told not to by someone who wasn't me | 03:19 |
| LjL | viruses are fast, people are slow | 03:19 |
| swift110 | goodness | 03:19 |
| LjL | and have a penchant for assuming normality will continue, because that's what they've seen before | 03:19 |
| swift110 | quarantine is best | 03:19 |
| ggz | LjL: i have no idea which is the freshest | 03:20 |
| swift110 | spreading it all over the world is insane | 03:20 |
| LjL | ggz, fair enough, i'll add it to the list anyway | 03:21 |
| ggz | LjL: i spend most of my day watching this video :p | 03:21 |
| LjL | i spend most of my day failing to make my bot work the way i want | 03:22 |
| ggz | LjL: what langage ? | 03:22 |
| LjL | python | 03:23 |
| LjL | 2 | 03:23 |
| ggz | is it supybot ? | 03:23 |
| LjL | no, jenni fork of phenny | 03:23 |
| LjL | it's kinda legacy, i've played with it for years | 03:23 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 03:23 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 2036 cases, 52 deaths (2.6% of cases), 149 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 02:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 03:23 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 25.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 03:23 |
| LjL | mainly now i'm fighting with my terrible rss feed module | 03:24 |
| swift110 | oh wow | 03:25 |
| fructose | https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/crowds-americans-stockpiling-prepare-coronavirus-covid-19 | 03:27 |
| LjL | fructose, yeah i guess i'm a bit late for asking american friends to send me over masks | 03:27 |
| LjL | too bad | 03:27 |
| LjL | before i was like "naah" | 03:27 |
| fructose | I'm just amused that half of those look like normal Costco shoppers | 03:28 |
| LjL | what else would they look like | 03:29 |
| contingo | %w zoonose | 03:30 |
| Brainstorm | contingo, zoonose — noun: 1. Alternative form of zoonosis → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/zoonose | 03:30 |
| contingo | %w zoonoses | 03:30 |
| Brainstorm | contingo, zoonoses — noun: 1. plural of zoonosis, 2. plural of zoonose → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/zoonoses | 03:30 |
| contingo | %w zoonosis | 03:30 |
| Brainstorm | contingo, zoonosis — noun: 1. An animal disease, such as rabies or anthrax, that can be transmitted to humans → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/zoonosis | 03:30 |
| fructose | LjL: Something unusual, according to that article | 03:34 |
| LjL | hmm, unlikely apparently the US, Italy still publishes the total number of tests aside from the positives | 03:37 |
| LjL | no idea where, since gov.it sites are impossible to navigate | 03:37 |
| LjL | but i'm seeing them in a paper | 03:37 |
| LjL | i'm thinking... positives / total may give an idea of just how infectious this is? | 03:37 |
| LjL | not quite an R0, but, swabs are done on people suspected to be positive for some reason (usually contacts) | 03:37 |
| LjL | so like in Lombardy | 03:38 |
| LjL | %wa 1254 / 7925 | 03:38 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (1254/7925): Decimal approximation: 0.158233438485804416403785488958990536277602523659305993690... → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1254+%2F+7925 | 03:38 |
| LjL | but then in Piedmont | 03:38 |
| LjL | no, Veneto | 03:38 |
| LjL | %wa 273 / 9782 | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (273/9782): Decimal approximation: 0.027908403189531793089347781639746473113882641586587609895... → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=273+%2F+9782 | 03:39 |
| LjL | these are... different, to say the least | 03:39 |
| LjL | also why in the world would they do more tests in Veneto than in Lombardy? now perhaps i get the whole "we're testing too much" thing, if that's how it started | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:34 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: WHO says world in 'uncharted territory': UK draws up ‘feed the nation’ contingency plans as Australia considers banning mass gatherings and Italy records 52 deaths. Follow live news → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 03:44 |
| ns0s[m] | <LjL "contingo, spoilers: Italy has hi"> I thought viruses mutated to less lethal? | 03:48 |
| LjL | ns0s[m], i don't think virus mutate "to" anything... they just mutate. if a mutation causes the virus to be more lethal, then natural selection will in time determine whether that's a good or a bad thing for the virus. if it determines it's a bad thing, eventually that strain will go away, presumably... but we're weeks into this, not even really months | 03:49 |
| LjL | uhm, a country i haven't really had on my radar | 03:54 |
| LjL | %cases Philippines | 03:54 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Philippines, there are 3 cases, 1 deaths (33.3% of cases), 2 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 02:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Philippines for time series data. | 03:54 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 11.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 33.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 03:54 |
| LjL | no it can't, bot, i need some saner boundaries on this | 03:54 |
| fructose | ns0s[m]: Where is that idea coming from? | 03:54 |
| LjL | fructose, eventually many do seem to, but really, aiui, what they're striving for is a balance between how much they reproduce within an organism (at the potential cost of killing it quickly) vs how many other hosts they can infect (ending up in reproducing and spreading further, but maybe having to spare the host) | 03:55 |
| ns0s[m] | RUMINT likley or my ass on a best case scenario yet how LjL explained it seems to make more sense than what I've understood. | 03:56 |
| fructose | LjL: I don't know what data you're referring to in "many seem to do so" | 03:56 |
| yuriwho | that was a bot being dumb with data | 03:57 |
| ns0s[m] | I just need to do some real reading into it and thought perhaps someone here had some knowledge on it | 03:57 |
| LjL | yuriwho, separate thing. fructose has a bit of a thing for wanting a citation for every english statement made, sometimes. | 03:57 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, reload covid | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: <module 'covid' from '/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py'> (version: 2020-03-03 02:56:26) | 03:57 |
| LjL | %covid Philippines | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Philippines, there are 3 cases, 1 deaths (33.3% of cases), 2 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 02:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Philippines for time series data. | 03:57 |
| LjL | %covid Italy | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 2036 cases, 52 deaths (2.6% of cases), 149 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 02:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 25.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 03:58 |
| yuriwho | viruses purely optimize for maximum self replication & transmission. Flu is near optimal. Spread far and wide killing few hosts | 03:59 |
| yuriwho | also Covid does not mutate in the same way or at the same rate as Flu does | 04:01 |
| fructose | yuriwho: That's not really true either. They just replicate or not, transmit or not. The ones that do are more likely to continue doing so. | 04:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:54 UTC: PM calls on banks to 'show up' for Australia during coronavirus impact on economy – politics live: With the first human transmission of coronavirus recorded in Australia, the government is beefing up biosecurity laws and urging people to go about their lives ‘in the normal way’. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/itzmoF | 04:01 |
| yuriwho | fructose: I am referring to endemic pathogens generally | 04:02 |
| fructose | yuriwho: And? | 04:02 |
| yuriwho | I don't know what you are driving at | 04:03 |
| fructose | Viruses do not "purely optimize for maximum self replication and transmission" | 04:08 |
| LjL | can you get any more fruitless semantics oriented? | 04:08 |
| LjL | it would be ironic given you're called fructose | 04:08 |
| fructose | I'm truth oriented and anti-bullshit. | 04:08 |
| LjL | okay then i know someone is running ##truth, you might like that | 04:09 |
| fructose | They're doing a bad job | 04:09 |
| LjL | figures | 04:09 |
| LjL | that you'd know, that is | 04:09 |
| yuriwho | lol | 04:10 |
| yuriwho | Have you read "The Selfish Gene" by Richard Dawkins? | 04:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:08 UTC: PM calls on banks to 'show up' for Australia during coronavirus impact on economy – question time live: With the first human transmission of coronavirus recorded in Australia, the government is beefing up biosecurity laws and urging people to go about their lives ‘in the normal way’. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/itzmoF | 04:13 |
| LjL | yuriwho, it's been around the top of my "to read" list for the past... since i've heard of it. i still do like a lot to tell people about its contents which i do not really know | 04:14 |
| LjL | but it's true, viruses don't strive to do anything. even their genes (or ours) don't strive to do anything. even evolution doesn't really, really if you analyze the meaning of the sentence, "operate" in a way so as to make viruses do this and that. in reality, we see some chemical-physical phenomena happening that we attempt to describe and model by evolution and related theories | 04:15 |
| LjL | after this disclaimer can we say that viruses optimize for this and that, as shorthand, or should the disclaimer always accompany the rest of the statement | 04:16 |
| LjL | 'cause IRC has a 512 character length limit | 04:16 |
| yuriwho | in essence, success for any self replicating system is measured in the total population that can be population achieved over a long period of time | 04:17 |
| yuriwho | s/ remove second 'population' | 04:17 |
| yuriwho | your description is quite accurate | 04:18 |
| tinwhiskers | novel viruses that are extremely lethal tend to become less lethal as the more lethal ones don't persist, but with something like the current virus it could go either way really. | 04:20 |
| LjL | yuriwho, that measure of success is decent and i assume the one actually used in biology, but i think other metrics could be used too. it's all complicated by the fact that the self-replicating system doesn't actually replicate *itself* but often/sometimes a modified copy of itself... which if you see as an individual occurrence, is just a failure to replicate, but when you have many of those things, it's actually an asset because it can undergo evolution. | 04:21 |
| LjL | but now there is a compromise between "staying the same", and "mutating to maintain or increase viability". but then now by talking about a compromise i'm already giving the entity and/or evolution a human voice again | 04:21 |
| LjL | anyway, putting aside the question of "when does it still count as the same organism after it's mutated a fair bit", i could also propose to measure success as how long an organism manages to stay around, even if sheer numbers aren't too impressive. niche organism can stay around for very long times | 04:22 |
| fructose | LjL: Yes, this much anthropomorphizing seems to give people strange ideas how about viruses behave | 04:24 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, the current virus seems somewhat good at spreading asymptomatically, no matter how much doctors interviewed by the media are still being all like "weeeeell, we don't really know, but mostly it likely spreads symptomatically", so that feels like a bit of a threat about them being able to do away with their host, after they've managed to infect enough other hosts anyway | 04:24 |
| yuriwho | these are self replicating machines, they achieve adaptability by diversity through mutation during replication | 04:24 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: true | 04:24 |
| LjL | fructose, it is extremely difficult though to have a sustained discussion of their collective behavior in time without slipping to the... uh, i wouldn't even go as far as anthropomorphizing, pretty sure cats have goals too | 04:25 |
| fructose | LjL: Sure, but there have been things said that cross that line into simply false. | 04:25 |
| LjL | okay, then correct them, instead of just keeping asking for citations. this is not wikipedia and it doesn't work as well as on a wikipedia talk page (under the very tentative assumption that it does work well there) | 04:26 |
| yuriwho | absolute purity in explanations prevents sharing of general concepts | 04:27 |
| fructose | LjL: I'm not omniscient. If you say viruses seem to be one way or another, you may have data or evidence that I have not seen. That is why I asked. | 04:27 |
| yuriwho | if I was talking with my fellow Ph.D. scientists I would use different language and we would not be having this discussion in the first place | 04:28 |
| LjL | uuuh somehow i feel this channel is just the right size | 04:40 |
| LjL | like let's not replicate more users just to have a larger reservoir | 04:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:39 UTC: Reserve Bank cuts interest rates to new record low of 0.5% – question time live: Question time goes straight into sports rorts, while earlier the government beefs up biosecurity laws and urges calm following Australia’s first recorded transmission of coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/itzmoF | 04:49 |
| swift110 | ok | 05:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:29 UTC: Reserve Bank cuts interest rates to new record low of 0.5% – politics live: Labor renews pursuit of PM over sports rorts during question time, while earlier the government beefs up biosecurity laws and urges calm around coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/itzmoF | 05:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:54 UTC: Scott Morrison admits his office put forward Hillsong leader's name for White House dinner – politics live: Labor renews pursuit of PM over sports rorts, parties express regret at AAP news wire closing, and the government beefs up biosecurity laws and urges calm around coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/itzmoF | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:37 UTC: Donald Trump tweets on Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates cut – politics live: Scott Morrison confirms ‘gossip’ around 2019 White House dinner, while Labor renews pursuit over sports rorts and the government urges calm on coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/itzmoF | 07:53 |
| Albright | LjL: That previous Brainstorm post seems to be mostly unrelated to COVID-19. ^ | 07:57 |
| pwr22 | Morning everyone | 08:37 |
| twomoon | hi | 08:43 |
| Albright | %stats japan | 09:11 |
| Brainstorm | Most used commands: xatan (66), watch_for_join (66), joins (66), watch_for_privmsg (60), watch_for_messages (60), watch_for_backlog (60), science (60), responds (60), quup (60), police (60) | 09:11 |
| Albright | %cases japan | 09:12 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: In Japan, there are 274 cases, 6 deaths (2.2% of cases), 43 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 08:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan for time series data. | 09:12 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 12.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 09:12 |
| Albright | Hmm, Japan has only had six deaths despite having far more cases than the US, which has also had six deaths. | 09:13 |
| Timvde | %cases us | 09:19 |
| Brainstorm | Timvde: In US, there are 105 cases, 6 deaths (5.7% of cases), 9 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 08:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 09:19 |
| Timvde | %cases belgium | 09:19 |
| Brainstorm | Timvde: In Belgium, there are 8 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 08:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Belgium for time series data. | 09:19 |
| greyman | %cases turkey | 09:55 |
| Brainstorm | greyman: Sorry, turkey not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 09:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:00 UTC: Why conspiracy theories spread faster than coronavirus | Scott Radnitz: Did the virus originate in a US weapons lab, or is it a plot to destabilise Iran? The ‘infection’ of social media by these stories is a deliberate strategy As coronavirus continues to spread and scientists project how many people are likely [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rDivqH | 10:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:07 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: South Korea cases approach 5,000 as WHO says world in 'uncharted territory' → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 10:23 |
| mefistofeles | hey | 10:27 |
| mefistofeles | %data Germany | 10:27 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Germany, there are 165 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 09:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 10:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:30 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Covid-19: government advises UK public to carry on as normal → https://is.gd/N1XE6h | 10:48 |
| Albright | Keep calm and carry on, huh? | 10:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:50 UTC: Politics: Labour facing one of worst local elections in recent history in 2020, leaked party report suggests - live news → https://is.gd/d2s5XG | 11:00 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: hey, how are things going? | 11:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:55 UTC: Explained: UK's coronavirus action plan: What the government’s measures to fight the spread of Covid-19 mean in practice → https://is.gd/OqiaXT | 12:01 |
| RougeRR | mrn | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | LjL, | 12:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:10 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: fifth of UK workforce could be absent from work at peak of epidemic, government warns → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 12:26 |
| sneep | %cases korea | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | sneep: In South Korea, there are 5186 cases, 28 deaths (0.5% of cases), 34 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 11:33 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South Korea for time series data. | 12:56 |
| sneep | :{ | 12:56 |
| sneep | > In February 2016, Diamond Princess experienced a gastroenteritis ("gastro") outbreak caused by norovirus sickening 158 passengers and crew on board, as confirmed after arrival in Sydney by NSW Health.[14][15] | 12:59 |
| sneep | That ship appears to be good at spreading viruses | 12:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:00 UTC: Social care: We crumblies are less afraid of the coronavirus than living in a country without care | Stewart Dakers → https://is.gd/cNiiza | 13:03 |
| python476 | good coughing everybody | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: fifth of UK workforce could be absent from work at peak of epidemic, government warns → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 13:27 |
| ubLIX | Scott Alexander finally ventures a blog response to covid-19 - https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-links-speculation-open-thread/ | 13:48 |
| ubLIX | one highlight: | 13:48 |
| ubLIX | "Less good but cooler ways to avoid infection include putting copper tape over everything in your house (copper kills viruses on touch)." | 13:48 |
| ubLIX | "For best results, use a combination of copper, iron, and silver tape to be protected from coronavirus, fae, and werewolves simultaneously." | 13:49 |
| adventurer | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpXoY_1EG8Y&fbclid=IwAR25hplh4Id_25FP_pZOeaD9pRIgzqinNHkbq5yUGRR4XUDIks_yX3H1trI | 13:50 |
| Xip | ubLIX, Not sure if anyone really recovers at all. It may seem like they got the virus again from someone else, but that seems unlikely to me for some reason since it has been reported so many times now. So that is the most concerning to me. | 14:14 |
| Xip | If this is a bioweapon that escaped from a lab, say it is, that is exactly what they would design it to do. So people would just wander off and infect people again. | 14:15 |
| ubLIX | sure but many credible sources are coming out pretty harshly against the idea that covid-19 is an escaped bioweapon | 14:17 |
| ubLIX | bit too early to tell how reinfection will work out on a large scale. we can at least hope that infection will confer some lasting immunity | 14:17 |
| Xip | We need to wait another month and see what happens outside China. | 14:18 |
| pwr22 | Imo there's no compelling evidence that it's a bioweapon 🤔 | 14:28 |
| pwr22 | People's imaginations are likely running wild | 14:28 |
| Xip | https://www.google.com/search?q=Wuhan+Institute+of+Virology&tbm=nws | 14:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:19 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: confirmed UK cases now at 51, says health minister: Rise in cases comes as UK sets out emergency plans Hong Kong charters plane to bring 500 people back from Wuhan as China infections and deaths drop → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 14:28 |
| Xip | Sorry, it is a Google News listing of anyone mentioning the lab there, might be useful to see if something shows up later | 14:29 |
| Xip | If it is a bioweapon it is not exactly like they are going to tell you that right now | 14:29 |
| pwr22 | Conversely, if it isn't a bioweapon then they also wouldn't be going to say it's a bioweapon either | 14:32 |
| pwr22 | I'm not convinced by the proximity of the lab in and of itself | 14:33 |
| pwr22 | Here we go with more cases in the UK 😭 | 14:34 |
| ubLIX | LjL: someone with more statistical sophistication than me might comment on whether this crowd-sourcing prediction-engine might be worth adding to the channel topic sources-list: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/ | 14:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:34 UTC: Uefa's Ceferin warns against fixating on 'dark scenarios' over coronavirus threat: ‘Let’s try to be optimistic’ says Uefa president Scotland manager Clarke misses Nations League draw The president of Uefa, Aleksander Ceferin, has warned against fixating on “dark scenarios” over the spread of coronavirus, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/WUFHmF | 14:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:45 UTC: Politics: Hancock tells MPs 7-day limit on sickness self-certification could be relaxed in light of coronavirus - live news → https://is.gd/d2s5XG | 14:53 |
| LjL | afternoon | 15:01 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i totally went to bed at half past midnight | 15:02 |
| LjL | Bangladesh time | 15:02 |
| ubLIX | congrats! | 15:02 |
| ubLIX | now you just need to move to Bangladesh | 15:02 |
| LjL | i don't know, it's sort of damp and they are awaiting a massive earthquake | 15:03 |
| LjL | ubLIX, is that page basically just asking me to make my prediction based on whatever factors i decide, and it'll average it with everybody else's? | 15:03 |
| ubLIX | pretty much | 15:04 |
| LjL | we've just had a bit of frantic searching in da house | 15:04 |
| LjL | i had misplaced the pharmacy-made hand sanitizer | 15:04 |
| LjL | i absent-mindedly put things in improbable places a lot | 15:04 |
| ubLIX | the reported aggregate-estimate is a moving average too, so it's a bit (a lot?) too sticky (underestimate) | 15:05 |
| LjL | ubLIX, that's pretty much "in a year" so Campbell would say... 30% of 8 billion? | 15:06 |
| ubLIX | *underground bunker-complex digging intensifies* | 15:07 |
| LjL | some of our cassettes don't play anymore and i think they're exhibiting something i forget the technical name of, but basically sticky tape syndrome. unbonding of the metal sheet from the plastic below, which initially just makes the tape squeak... now for this one, it's already making it fail to play at a constant speed, and rewind | 15:07 |
| LjL | viruses everywhere even in tapes | 15:07 |
| python476 | entropidemia | 15:09 |
| LjL | add that to wiktionary, it's almost as good as my "devastatic" | 15:11 |
| LjL | although it should be entropidemic in english i guess | 15:11 |
| python476 | noun vs adjective, debate | 15:11 |
| LjL | no, it's a noun in english | 15:12 |
| LjL | %w epidemic | 15:12 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, epidemic — noun: 1. A widespread disease that affects many individuals in a population, 2. (epidemiology) An occurrence of a disease or disorder in a population at a frequency higher than that expected in a given time period — adjective: 1. Like or having to do with an epidemic; widespread → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/epidemic | 15:12 |
| python476 | really | 15:12 |
| python476 | then what's the english adjective .. | 15:12 |
| python476 | epidemical ? | 15:12 |
| python476 | :D | 15:12 |
| LjL | %w epidemical | 15:12 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, epidemical — adjective: 1. (obsolete) Alternative form of epidemic → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/epidemical | 15:12 |
| python476 | hah | 15:12 |
| LjL | i guess it's both a noun and an adjective | 15:12 |
| python476 | hoomans, so easy | 15:12 |
| LjL | english likes to just word words, you know | 15:12 |
| python476 | man I need to escape my toxic parents, thus I need a job, but I'm too down to get one, fuck me | 15:13 |
| LjL | python476, are you me? | 15:13 |
| python476 | LjL: true, that's why I liked english in the first place | 15:13 |
| python476 | you can just string things and 80% of the time it will make sense | 15:13 |
| python476 | 20% of the time you will face prison | 15:13 |
| python476 | LjL: confusedly happy to know I'm not alone | 15:13 |
| LjL | python476, that's about the same odds as when they say "most people only experience mild symptoms" | 15:13 |
| LjL | so i guess it's alright | 15:14 |
| python476 | I'm going to some small supermarkets to see if they need part time employees | 15:14 |
| LjL | oh that's unlike me | 15:14 |
| LjL | also, worst job to get at the moment... after nurse, maybe | 15:14 |
| python476 | heh | 15:14 |
| python476 | I plan to build a hazmat suit with ionizing arc sanitizer around me | 15:14 |
| python476 | so I can safely put rice bags on shelves | 15:14 |
| LjL | death by electrocution is probably better/faster than death by covid | 15:15 |
| python476 | a risky trader would say that's a good time to get hired with a bonus since people are hiding at home | 15:15 |
| ubLIX | if you succeed with that, just set up business selling the ionizing arc sanitizer suits and skip the job part | 15:15 |
| LjL | ↑ | 15:15 |
| python476 | that's real trader mindset | 15:16 |
| python476 | not risky noob trader | 15:16 |
| python476 | who has the safest job right now ? | 15:16 |
| python476 | submarine operators ? | 15:16 |
| LjL | lighthouse guards? | 15:16 |
| LjL | (if they still exist) | 15:17 |
| python476 | unless you were missioned in china bay | 15:17 |
| python476 | LjL: that works too | 15:17 |
| LjL | damn i still have Lighthouse to watch | 15:17 |
| LjL | and also other things | 15:17 |
| python476 | i can picture the lazy lighthouse guards that slept without radio for the last week and now read the news | 15:17 |
| python476 | LjL: watch lists are becoming a new medical condition | 15:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:04 UTC: Politics: Hancock tells MPs rule on workers needing GP's sick note could be relaxed in light of coronavirus - live news → https://is.gd/d2s5XG | 15:17 |
| LjL | python476, oh for me they have long been | 15:19 |
| LjL | both literally as movie watch lists, and as ebay watchlists | 15:19 |
| LjL | also amazon | 15:19 |
| python476 | brb, have some covid to inhale | 15:21 |
| LjL | gl;hf | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:18 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: 51 cases confirmed in UK as emergency plans set out → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 15:30 |
| Xip | I am not going outside for 30 days, I don't care what people say. I am a prepper, maybe shit does not hit the fan, I still won't. | 15:32 |
| Xip | Besides I got a terrible addiction to drugs still, I had not heard about this virus until I got out from rehab. First thing I did was get drugs and get manic. So it is a good excuse to do another 30 days. | 15:34 |
| Xip | Maybe this addiction does me good for once. | 15:34 |
| ubLIX | if you are able isolate yourself, it is a justifiable option. consider yourself lucky if you are able and so well prepared. if i could do that, i'd seriously consider it | 15:36 |
| ubLIX | Xip: now seems like as good a time as any to be clear headed. just saying | 15:36 |
| contingo | why 30 days? | 15:47 |
| Xip | Because it seems it takes 30 day:ish before it shows up. All these infections are the first. | 15:47 |
| LjL | it takes much less than that except in like... 2 recorded cases so far? | 15:48 |
| Xip | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-may-have-been-in-italy-for-weeks-before-it-was-detected | 15:52 |
| Xip | I have luckily been in rehab, so I got basically straight to home, I can not be infected. I am fine. 30 days is a made up number. | 15:54 |
| contingo | you went home via your dealer's? | 15:55 |
| Xip | It was what I had at this location | 15:56 |
| Xip | That's why I did the instant relapse | 15:56 |
| Xip | I thought I was in the clear, I am not actually at my say "bunker" | 15:57 |
| Xip | It's too far now | 15:57 |
| contingo | mightn't succumbing to addiction for 30 days put your system in a much weaker position to fight off the virus, when in 30 days' time you, re-emerge into a potentially even worse scenario in terms of spread, that might go on for months and months | 15:57 |
| Xip | I am not infected | 15:58 |
| Xip | Not sure if you know how good rehab works but they treat it as a disease, so nothing is transferred | 15:59 |
| Xip | The only reason I relapsed was because I found some shit at this location, that is all. Nothing else. | 16:01 |
| contingo | no, I'm talking about after | 16:03 |
| Xip | After what? | 16:03 |
| Xip | Oh okay.. | 16:04 |
| Xip | I can stay here for 6 months in theory | 16:04 |
| contingo | fair enough | 16:05 |
| Xip | There are a few beers here, so I can even get a bit chill if I like to, I won't have to relapse | 16:05 |
| Xip | If I'd get the anxiety to get something I mean, just get a beer | 16:06 |
| Xip | I wasn't addicted to downers though, it's more like cocaine etc. just to add to it. It's more that itch I still have to kick. | 16:07 |
| Xip | Actually this place is pretty alright, I could live here for a half year, I got downloaded movies, Wikipedia is downloaded, I got millions of books downloaded. There is stored water for 2 weeks. | 16:08 |
| Xip | But it's not exactly like the system will collapse right now =) | 16:09 |
| Xip | In fact I am struggling if I am paranoid still after my manic episode since yesterday. | 16:09 |
| Xip | Not sure if you know how these drugs work but, and even alcohol can do it in some degree, the day after, once your body tries to get back to reality, it is weak and will see anything as a threat. That is why when you are hangover, and did nothing wrong, still got some kind of anxiety. | 16:12 |
| Xip | So of course I went online and saw this virus, plus, joined IRC for the first time for like months, maybe a half year. Just reconnecting with old friends (most are not here anymore) | 16:12 |
| Xip | At rehab I just read books | 16:13 |
| ubLIX | coming out of rehab and discovering covid-19 must have been a bit of a shock | 16:13 |
| Xip | Plus I found cocaine right away and I got fucked up, then this is today. This is the "paranoid" day. | 16:14 |
| Xip | So maybe tommorow I got a more clear perspective. | 16:15 |
| Xip | ubLIX, What is your take on this? Is this even a thing to care about really? | 16:16 |
| ubLIX | what? drug-induced paranoia or covid-19? | 16:16 |
| Xip | ubLIX, stick to the channel, I mean covid-19 of course | 16:16 |
| Xip | This should be treated as a special channel I think | 16:17 |
| ubLIX | i also wonder whether your drug use is related to an underlying current of anxiety, but, sticking to corona | 16:17 |
| Xip | ubLIX, You can PM me if you want to discuss that, it's the proper thing I think | 16:18 |
| Xip | Or well, I guess that might relate to people in general. I am not that afraid of things in general, so maybe it's good to be paranoid. | 16:18 |
| Xip | Mass psychosis is a real thing since a lot of people are weak minded, trusting the government, media etc. so if they hear this over and over, the economy could be hurt. It's actually also a risk factor, maybe the biggest one. | 16:20 |
| ubLIX | covid-19 is absolutely to be taken seriously, on a medical level, and on an economic-fallout level. as for setting personal anxiety, evidence seems to indicate that if you are in young and in good health, you will not die if infected. it is the old and those with pre-existing health problems who are most at risk. but youth and good health is small comfort if you have elderly relatives. | 16:20 |
| ubLIX | Xip: this post might suit your interest in particular: https://putanumonit.com/2020/02/27/seeing-the-smoke/ | 16:22 |
| spybert | Regarding the virus, if you can isolate yourself without serious consequences that would be the way to go. | 16:25 |
| spybert | But my wife is a nurse, and I have a child in elementary school, so there is no way that I will not be exposed to covid-19 :-( | 16:26 |
| spybert | Just like the seasonal flu that ripped through here 2-3 weeks ago, infecting people regardless of whether or not they had their flu vaccinations | 16:28 |
| spybert | for all we know it might have been covid-19. No test kits to find out. | 16:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:25 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: Iran to mobilise 300,000 soldiers and volunteers as 23 MPs infected - latest news → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 16:36 |
| LjL | %cases Italy | 16:55 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 2036 cases, 52 deaths (2.6% of cases), 149 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 15:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 16:55 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 25.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 16:55 |
| python476 | dammit even lidl stores don't have jobs | 17:12 |
| LjL | someone just reminded me to be scared | 17:19 |
| LjL | about 0.002% of people in China are infected | 17:19 |
| LjL | but about 0.003% of people in Italy are | 17:19 |
| LjL | both small fractions, sure, but. | 17:19 |
| LjL | also i should add that figure to the bot, where do i find an easy csv with populations for all the things | 17:20 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers! | 17:20 |
| python476 | LjL: are there suspicion about China stats ? | 17:24 |
| LjL | sure | 17:24 |
| python476 | JHU hints that they're flat | 17:24 |
| LjL | but i have no opinion on the matter | 17:25 |
| python476 | just like their eyes | 17:25 |
| LjL | my guts instinct tells me they are "honest" (although that doesn't necessarily mean "correct") | 17:25 |
| LjL | but other people have said there's no way those are true | 17:25 |
| LjL | so i dunno | 17:25 |
| python476 | well go investigate | 17:26 |
| python476 | it's first road on the right | 17:27 |
| LjL | python476, i don't mind silly jokes but fyi the thing with Asian eyes being "slanted" or "flat" is considered a somewhat serious slur left of the Atlantic, for some reason | 17:27 |
| LjL | i mention that because it's just a thing we say here and nobody considers it bad | 17:27 |
| python476 | sorry I didn't mean to insult yellow aliens | 17:30 |
| python476 | im just kidding | 17:30 |
| LjL | contingo, someone: "a study about mutation in sars-cov-2, that makes it to differ from other human infecting coronaviruses like sars-1 and ebola, so that it binds to furin enzyme instead of ACE2 (healthy people dont have much ACE2), making it hugely more infectious" | 17:30 |
| python476 | I like to be an ass at times but I dont mean it | 17:30 |
| python476 | actually I was shocked that there was asian racism in paris | 17:30 |
| LjL | contingo, this being the study http://chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00004 although...... | 17:31 |
| LjL | python476, i know you didn't mean it, just americans have different sensibilities (shooting you is okay, calling you a slanted eyes is terrible) | 17:31 |
| LjL | contingo, also i guess this https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say is the english layman explanation of that study | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:30 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Fear about the coronoavirus is normal, but don’t let the fear control you | Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz → https://is.gd/kfctpt | 17:37 |
| contingo | that explanation doesn't make sense to me | 17:38 |
| LjL | contingo: do you think it would be a Very Bad Idea to pour isopropyl on the one mask I have (which is sadly just fpp1 anyway) and re-use after it dries? | 17:42 |
| LjL | Oh god I'm actually getting into the middle of some event, with TV vans and cameras | 17:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: Iran to mobilise 300,000 soldiers and volunteers as 23 MPs infected - latest news → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 17:49 |
| LjL | I wanted to call this one "Sunset in the desert" but I guess that's not really accurate after all https://framapic.org/XN7eaccdgfFB/fyy6kHV7ubTd | 17:50 |
| LjL | Also... | 17:51 |
| LjL | Here is how people are isolating, apparently https://framapic.org/nBk8nuqMNN2i/cIj4oTRkv6l5 | 17:51 |
| contingo | LjL are you diluting your isopropyl to the right percentage | 17:52 |
| LjL | contingo: so far I haven't, mainly because I've only used it for surfaces (still have actual hand gel) | 17:53 |
| contingo | but it still needs to be at the right percentage for surfaces | 17:55 |
| contingo | otherwise it evaporates too quickly to be sufficiently disinfecting | 17:55 |
| LjL | Such quarantine really https://framapic.org/wc7wxe243upI/CbzossAY1QUq | 17:55 |
| LjL | contingo: ah will keep that in mind. What about the mask? Will it destroy any filtering properties it had if any? | 17:56 |
| contingo | I think it should be OK to do that until you see some physical deterioration | 17:59 |
| contingo | "Disposable masks and respirators do not lend themselves to reuse because they work by trapping harmful particles inside the mesh of fibers of which they are made. This hazardous buildup cannot be cleaned out or disinfected without damaging the fibers or other components of the device such as the straps or nose clip, the committee found. Moreover, the committee could not identify any simple modifications to the manufacturing of the devices that | 18:00 |
| contingo | would permit reuse, or any changes that would dispense with the need to test the fit of respirators to ensure a wearer is fully protected" | 18:00 |
| contingo | http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=11637 | 18:00 |
| contingo | that would be a no | 18:01 |
| contingo | this would be a yes | 18:01 |
| contingo | https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202002020012 | 18:01 |
| contingo | LjL I think the sentence "that it binds to furin enzyme instead of ACE2" is misinformation | 18:02 |
| contingo | but I'm not sure. the virus spike protein has several functional domains. This may be explaining how once attaching to ACE2, a furin cleavage motif in the spike protein expedites cell entry | 18:05 |
| LjL | Spec: Good to know despite the almost-quarantine that no one respects, our infrastructure is working as good as ever https://framapic.org/yZk6AxBV8bUu/wg8fxVyu9rSf | 18:26 |
| LjL | No frenchie comments on this thanks! | 18:26 |
| jcay | hello people | 18:26 |
| LjL | Aw just a moment too soon for jcay to tell me how much this would never happen in his country | 18:27 |
| jcay | what? | 18:27 |
| ggz | wtf i look at map today and all countries that where safe are now re-infected :'( | 18:29 |
| python476 | LjL: what's this pic ? | 18:32 |
| LjL | python476: we call it street art but I believe you call it la poubelle | 18:38 |
| LjL | Mais c'est pas trop belle | 18:38 |
| python476 | LjL: depends how much beer we had | 18:38 |
| python476 | piu bella poubelle | 18:38 |
| twomoon | who started this channel? | 18:41 |
| mefistofeles | technically I did | 18:41 |
| mefistofeles | twomoon: ↑ | 18:41 |
| twomoon | you da man | 18:41 |
| LjL | Okay I think my phone is now telling me, stop taking pictures and keep walking, since it's only taking black pics now | 18:41 |
| python476 | aen't you ashamed ? | 18:41 |
| python476 | jk | 18:41 |
| LjL | Technically! | 18:41 |
| mefistofeles | but it's basically wned by LjL | 18:41 |
| mefistofeles | owned* | 18:41 |
| twomoon | pwned by ljl* | 18:42 |
| LjL | Well I started it but it was called ##2019-ncov then when they gave it the new name he was faster than me | 18:42 |
| LjL | But also a gentleman | 18:42 |
| twomoon | lol | 18:42 |
| jcay | LjL: are your parents still healthy? | 18:43 |
| LjL | jcay: we're fine, except mentally a bit | 18:45 |
| jcay | nice to hear that | 18:45 |
| LjL | And I'm having a walk since it's the first time there's decent weather in a few days | 18:45 |
| twomoon | get a respirator mask yet? | 18:45 |
| LjL | No | 18:45 |
| LjL | I'm just hoping no one breathes on me | 18:46 |
| jcay | not sure they help anything, twomoon | 18:46 |
| LjL | Although this city is a lot fuller than I was expecting | 18:46 |
| LjL | I'll assemble a selection of pics later since instead of acuslly walking I'm taking pics of things | 18:46 |
| jcay | well, unless the good ones | 18:47 |
| jcay | LjL: enjoy ^^ | 18:47 |
| LjL | jcay: can't find good ones can't find even bad ones unless you break into a hospital and even then they're running out | 18:47 |
| jcay | twomoon: probably they do help if you sneeze or something.. | 18:48 |
| LjL | In general there is higher chances of an Italian being infected than a Chinese now | 18:48 |
| LjL | If you trust our and their numbers | 18:48 |
| twomoon | they at least stop you from touching your face so mcuh | 18:48 |
| twomoon | most humans instinctively touch their face three times a minute | 18:48 |
| jcay | LjL: well, yeah, their peak is over (or so it seems) | 18:49 |
| twomoon | lol ljl that statistic | 18:49 |
| twomoon | that's a tough pill to swallow | 18:49 |
| LjL | Yes I think any mask is sort of useful if replaced frequently enough | 18:49 |
| jcay | I think the peak in the worse 2 countries should be this or at latest next week | 18:50 |
| LjL | twomoon: also considering the chances HERE in particular are much higher... | 18:50 |
| jcay | 3* | 18:50 |
| LjL | jcay: Korea and Italy? Or are we battling it with Iran | 18:50 |
| LjL | %cases iran | 18:50 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Iran, there are 2336 cases, 77 deaths (3.3% of cases), 435 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 17:40 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran for time series data. | 18:50 |
| jcay | with Iran too | 18:50 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 15.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 18:50 |
| LjL | Yikes | 18:50 |
| LjL | Iran sure seems to be stealing our mojo | 18:51 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 2502 cases, 79 deaths (3.2% of cases), 160 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 17:40 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 33.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 18:51 |
| LjL | ... | 18:51 |
| LjL | Seriously back to more than 3% mortality? What the hell | 18:51 |
| LjL | Great someone just coughed next to me | 18:53 |
| jcay | oops | 18:53 |
| ggz | i read somewhere that the epidemy will rise to 50% of mondial population before it decrease, is it true ? | 18:56 |
| twomoon | epidemic will rise to 50% of world population before it decreases* | 18:57 |
| LjL | Meanwhile plants don't seem to realize it's actually still winter https://framapic.org/gallery#vLT3m8L39W0N/QJsvfH9eDFXe,KnVWtiKm01qR/jZ936k9EMcFN,gj2Yw49VbYuc/K7GUn2zVgZg1,NwTWPb0ac44L/W5HwInXLsJh8, | 18:57 |
| jcay | why winter? it's March | 18:58 |
| twomoon | yo framapic is annoying | 18:59 |
| LjL | It works nicer when it is just one pic | 19:02 |
| LjL | jcay, twomoon: just though "earthquake" then remembered there's a metro station beneath this street | 19:04 |
| jcay | LjL: oh | 19:04 |
| LjL | 9,99Brainstorm:99,99 New99,99 from r/WorldNews at 16:01 UTC:99,99 I’m Thomas Bollyky, the director of the Global Health program at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of “Plagues and the Paradox of Progress.” I’m here to answer your questions about the coronavirus and infectious diseases. AMA.: I’m Thomas Bollyky, director of the global health program at the Council on [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/2mGPn4 | 19:05 |
| LjL | So good, bot refuses to post relevant news here but posts them elsewhere instead | 19:06 |
| LjL | At least I get to see them | 19:06 |
| LjL | Stupid dog | 19:07 |
| LjL | Keep it on a leash if it gets angry at everybody yoy morons | 19:07 |
| jcay | latest M3 earthquake in Europe was in Macedonia on 1st March | 19:08 |
| LjL | Yes that was definitely a train | 19:11 |
| LjL | Also I get paged if there's even an M3 in Italy :p | 19:12 |
| jcay | in Tyrol they are very frequent, but they are M2.4 at most, not even noteceable | 19:12 |
| spybert | LjL: Those N95 respirator masks weren't designed to filter virus particles, so some of them would get through | 19:13 |
| LjL | But we should get an earthquake then the Vesuvius should erupt a couple of dams should fail catastrophically and... damn we don't have any active nuclear plants, maybe python476 can help with that | 19:13 |
| LjL | spybert: some could get through anything, everything about this epidemic is a matter of pro abilities | 19:14 |
| LjL | B also | 19:14 |
| twomoon | hehe ljl don't trigger brainstorm with a tweet | 19:14 |
| jcay | LjL: a tsunami is missing for that ^^ | 19:16 |
| LjL | Oh right | 19:16 |
| LjL | https://framapic.org/6TuAXPnp3hgQ/qa18p71KsTnu this is the mast where the Milan section or RAI broadcast all their shows with no longer any studio audiences, or, mostly, in-person guests anymore from https://framapic.org/6TuAXPnp3hgQ/qa18p71KsTnu | 19:24 |
| LjL | One would have been enough but yeah | 19:24 |
| LjL | One would have been enough but yeah | 19:25 |
| LjL | (Sorry) | 19:25 |
| twomoon | lol the message that you repeated twice happens to be 'one would have been enough' | 19:26 |
| LjL | No way | 19:28 |
| jcay | happens to the best of us | 19:28 |
| LjL | Earlier today on TV I saw yet another scene (dunno which country) of fully suited operators washing or disinfecting a street surface with strong jets | 19:29 |
| LjL | I really would like to understand what is up with that | 19:29 |
| LjL | It's NEVER explained | 19:29 |
| LjL | Just shown as chilling | 19:29 |
| jcay | I have read somewhere in Iran they desinfect the metro daily | 19:30 |
| LjL | But who licks streets? | 19:30 |
| jcay | in morning rush hour you better have a desinfected train, trust me | 19:31 |
| LjL | Now I'm kinda paranoid about getting home with shoes on, even though I take them off just after | 19:31 |
| LjL | jcay: train, sure, fair | 19:31 |
| LjL | But I keep seeing these scenes in streets of various affected countries | 19:31 |
| jcay | yeah, trains.. and maybe stations | 19:31 |
| twomoon | nice, ljl went full on anime with his indoor shoe policy | 19:32 |
| LjL | Milan is also upping train disinfection *supposedly*, I never believe anything Trenord says... certainly not their timetables | 19:32 |
| LjL | twomoon: it's just dirty | 19:32 |
| twomoon | yeah we started taking off our shoes a few years back too | 19:32 |
| LjL | Cultures are whatever they are but aspects can be changed if they're just not good ideas | 19:32 |
| twomoon | japanese people make a lot of sense | 19:32 |
| jcay | you need less cleaning | 19:33 |
| jcay | >by shoe off | 19:33 |
| LjL | Oh you distracted me and I took the elevator without thinking, someone else had just come out of it | 19:33 |
| LjL | I intended to take the stairs and instead now I'm dead thank you | 19:34 |
| jcay | maybe the stairs were infected and not elevator | 19:34 |
| twomoon | oh no, argentina looks like it got its first case of covid19 | 19:36 |
| jcay | well, but let's not panic yet, it's still at most 1:1000 chance to get sick by this virus in your contry | 19:36 |
| jcay | twomoon: are you from there? | 19:37 |
| twomoon | Confirmaron el primer caso de coronavirus en la Argentina | 19:37 |
| twomoon | Se trata de un hombre de 40 años que está internado en una clínica de la ciudad de Buenos Aires. Llegó el domingo desde Milán y había estado en Barcelona. El ministro de Salud dará una conferencia de prensa | 19:37 |
| jcay | ;/ | 19:37 |
| twomoon | jcay , no i'm from the US | 19:37 |
| jcay | looking on the bright side, it's gonna help the Earth a little bit, people fly less, people don't buy goods from China -> less polution | 19:39 |
| jcay | anyhow, time to go home... LjL, are you at home already? Wash your hands and face very very well, literally half minute at least | 19:43 |
| jcay | wish soap and stuff | 19:43 |
| LjL | jcay, i'm at home, i washed them for like 20 seconds but i also used alcohol rub first | 19:45 |
| jcay | very good | 19:45 |
| LjL | jcay, but have you noticed how much they've been insisting that goods/packages from China are safe? | 19:45 |
| LjL | at least, our official guidelines from the gov have | 19:45 |
| LjL | it's one of the "ten points" | 19:45 |
| jcay | do you mean they are not safe? | 19:46 |
| LjL | and it's blatantly false IMO, because we don't know that they are safe, we don't really know how the thing behaves on surfaces | 19:46 |
| LjL | i mean that they cannot claim that because they do not yet know that | 19:46 |
| LjL | but i guess claiming that helps the economy | 19:46 |
| LjL | i don't know that they're wrong either | 19:46 |
| LjL | but anyone can guess | 19:46 |
| LjL | guessing should be clearly different from stating | 19:46 |
| jcay | for what I know IMHO, most viruses can't survive long without human (if they infect humans) | 19:47 |
| LjL | a "ten points" things of things that people SHOULD do shouldn't contain guesses stated as truths | 19:47 |
| LjL | jcay, preliminary study shows coronaviruses (not this one in particular) can survive for like 12h on many types of surfaces, and in rare cases even days | 19:47 |
| twomoon | one of the ten points is to keep buying shit from china? | 19:48 |
| LjL | dunno if i remembered to put that one into the topic but i should | 19:48 |
| LjL | twomoon, well they don't exactly state it like that, but yes, they stress that things from china are safe | 19:48 |
| twomoon | this is bizarre | 19:48 |
| LjL | twomoon, just google "packages from china", you'll get a first page full of hits about this | 19:48 |
| twomoon | maybe they want you to get your respirators from China so you don't get ripped off by local sellers | 19:48 |
| LjL | and only this | 19:48 |
| LjL | at least the WHO states this in a "low risk" sense, not in a "no risk" sense (now, not sure it's always been this way) | 19:49 |
| LjL | Is it safe to receive a package from any area where COVID-19 has been reported? | 19:49 |
| LjL | Yes. The likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low. | 19:49 |
| LjL | https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses | 19:50 |
| LjL | and they changed the "from China" | 19:50 |
| LjL | since clearly now people need to keep buying from Italy too :P | 19:50 |
| fructose | LjL: You might want to put keywords in the topic if you want people to find this channel | 19:50 |
| LjL | fructose, people find channels from topic keywords? | 19:50 |
| fructose | LjL: Via alis, yes | 19:50 |
| jcay | I think they know enough about viruses in general, doesn't have to be this species, but yeah, you can be sceptical and paranoical, more the threat IMO is somewhere near your destination who is sick and delivering your package | 19:51 |
| LjL | i know that's possible, didn't imagine it was common | 19:51 |
| LjL | okay | 19:51 |
| jcay | LjL: you never know who is the guy in your town delivering your packages, maybe he is infected | 19:53 |
| jcay | anyway, I should really go, laterz | 19:54 |
| LjL | who is "they" jcay? the study i read is from "they" | 19:54 |
| LjL | from Chinese doctors trying to quickly study this | 19:54 |
| LjL | releasing preliminary info | 19:55 |
| LjL | because they just didn't really know | 19:55 |
| LjL | if "they" is God then maybe "they" know but they haven't told actual doctors yet | 19:55 |
| LjL | how inconsiderate of them | 19:55 |
| LjL | %tell jcay this is the study, peruse https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463/ | 19:56 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass jcay your message when they are around. | 19:56 |
| LjL | added to topic list too | 19:58 |
| LjL | (i was wrong about it being chinese doctor, that was another study) | 19:59 |
| LjL | the same paper also discusses how effective various agents are at destroying the virions btw | 19:59 |
| LjL | and how long it takes them | 20:00 |
| LjL | contingo, maybe you showed this to me in the first place, if not, it may be of interest, sorry i forget | 20:00 |
| fructose | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/coronavirus-south-korea-declares-war-on-outbreak-as-who-experts-arrive-in-iran | 20:02 |
| fructose | Best declaration of war I can remember | 20:02 |
| twomoon | Apple sent care packages containing iPads, hand sanitizer, and food to China employees on lockdown | 20:05 |
| LjL | markdown list improved and reshuffled a bit | 20:06 |
| LjL | <nickname> building huge hospitals was massive move, somebody bet his career on this or it was a no-brainer given existing knowledge | 20:09 |
| LjL | <nickname> which makes me think somebody somewhere knew quite a lot at that time | 20:09 |
| LjL | <nickname> you don't go to "the King" and say "i think I will build a few hospitals in the field just to see if they might come useful" I need 5000 people and few gorillions of Yuans | 20:09 |
| contingo | I did see that LjL but not sure if I shared | 20:10 |
| fructose | That person is an idiot | 20:10 |
| LjL | fructose, good that they're a +F then lol | 20:11 |
| LjL | to be fair i'm probably more of an idiot so it works out | 20:11 |
| LjL | also italy kept saying "we only have so many cases because we test more than anyone else, really other EU countries are probably as bad as us" | 20:28 |
| LjL | but now the UK has swabbed nearly 14000, which is nearly as much as Lombardy+Veneto combined | 20:28 |
| LjL | and sure they have found like 50 infected | 20:28 |
| LjL | but not 5000 | 20:28 |
| LjL | i don't know how many more... not even lies, but "facts" based on thin air we need to listen to from government/media before we guillotine them all and make tinwhiskers the new PM | 20:29 |
| fructose | What's strange to me is why these different countries are working independently | 20:29 |
| LjL | fructose, you'll be minister of citations needed | 20:29 |
| fructose | Evidence needed | 20:29 |
| LjL | fair, you get to decide the exact name | 20:29 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 2502 cases, 79 deaths (3.2% of cases), 160 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 19:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 33.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 20:30 |
| LjL | %cases iran | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Iran, there are 2336 cases, 77 deaths (3.3% of cases), 435 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 19:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran for time series data. | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 15.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 20:30 |
| LjL | tell me this isn't right | 20:30 |
| LjL | and why does Iran have the recoveries curve starting much earlier than ours even though the cases curve started later | 20:31 |
| fructose | LjL: It's not, those are just documented cases. | 20:32 |
| LjL | true, but that doesn't help :\ they're "just" documented cases in all other countries too, but they somehow don't have 3.2% mortality, and supposedly we swabbed more than most, so if anything we should have more mild cases, instead we have 40% in the hospital (even though hospitalized isn't a figure that floats around like the others, but i know that's about the amount) | 20:33 |
| LjL | %cases Korea | 20:33 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In South Korea, there are 5186 cases, 34 deaths (0.7% of cases), 34 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 19:00 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South Korea for time series data. | 20:33 |
| LjL | why don't we have 0.7% deaths | 20:33 |
| LjL | they had 0.7% death even when they had 2500 cases | 20:33 |
| twomoon | asians are more immune to these types of viruses? | 20:34 |
| LjL | 0.7% is pretty much the average mortality rate outside of Hubei | 20:34 |
| LjL | twomoon, no, Wuhan has 3%ish | 20:34 |
| twomoon | i doubt it | 20:34 |
| twomoon | i think the case totals in china are much higher in reality | 20:34 |
| twomoon | but ok i can't speculate here lol | 20:34 |
| LjL | and many think the same about their death reports | 20:34 |
| LjL | considering they tend to report people who had other conditions as having died from those instead | 20:35 |
| LjL | anyway, even though the data is early, i don't think other western countries are having established 3% rates either | 20:35 |
| LjL | %cases germany | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Germany, there are 196 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 19:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 20:35 |
| LjL | %cases france | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In France, there are 204 cases, 4 deaths (2.0% of cases), 12 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 19:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 25.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 20:35 |
| LjL | admittedly these are subject to a lot of noise for now | 20:35 |
| ubLIX | LjL: why are cases (in China) outside Wuhan much less severe and frequent than in Wuhan? Could the warning effect of Wuhan have improved response elsewhere? Likewise, Italy for Europe? | 20:37 |
| LjL | ubLIX, well, obviously it hasn't for Italy. but i'd explain Wuhan simply as the result of many cases that need hospitalization not managing to get hospitalization because they are too many | 20:37 |
| LjL | ubLIX, but in Lombardy they've said for now they have beds for everyone who needs a bed (although that won't last for long) | 20:38 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i think it's true as someone said that when our government kept said China had gifted us time to "prepare", the only things they prepared were their press reports | 20:38 |
| twomoon | geez | 20:38 |
| LjL | i just heard that Macron has ordered all France-produced face masks requisitioned ( python476 ) | 20:39 |
| LjL | why didn't we do the same? we were *already* out of masks two weeks before it started in Italy | 20:39 |
| LjL | (because of Chinatown people sending them back home) | 20:39 |
| LjL | whatever we had in production, why didn't we seize it | 20:39 |
| LjL | that's preparing | 20:39 |
| LjL | building makeshift hospitals is preparing | 20:39 |
| LjL | and they're building some now, but building them AFTER the epidemic starts is not "preparing" | 20:39 |
| LjL | %w postparing | 20:40 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I haven't loaded the spellchecker yet, I'll tell you in a minute! | 20:40 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Norwegian Bokmål spelling suggestions: post paring, post-paring, postering, pistring (aspell/nb) | 20:40 |
| LjL | see? that's not even a thing | 20:40 |
| fructose | "My mom’s friend’s mom just passed away and tested positive for the virus (however the CDC isn’t counting it because the “official” cause of death was heart failure)... so just thinking about the ADDITIONAL cases that aren’t being counted..." | 20:40 |
| fructose | Friend of mine | 20:40 |
| twomoon | c'mon you really think it was the chinese folks sending em home | 20:40 |
| LjL | fructose, i'm sorry | 20:40 |
| LjL | twomoon, why not? there's nothing wrong with that | 20:40 |
| LjL | everyone wants to protect their families | 20:40 |
| LjL | but that meant... pharmacies were out | 20:40 |
| LjL | it didn't mean the *production lines* were out | 20:41 |
| LjL | so, seize them | 20:41 |
| twomoon | it's just that it's very expensive i don't think that was done on a large scale | 20:41 |
| LjL | what's very expensive? surgical masks? i mean, now, sure. | 20:41 |
| twomoon | the shipping cost i mean | 20:41 |
| LjL | shipping stuff to china isn't expensive | 20:41 |
| LjL | dinnertime | 20:41 |
| twomoon | for me it was because i found out that stuck gets stuck in customs indefinitely unless you pay for extra insurance and signature confirmation and stuff like that | 20:42 |
| contingo | LjL have you looked into regional age distributons? | 20:48 |
| contingo | are affected areas in Italy more full of old people than those in South Korea etc | 20:49 |
| LjL | contingo: we have one of the highest life expectancies in the world that's true, more so in the north I think | 20:50 |
| LjL | But | 20:50 |
| LjL | I haven't been able to find any info from the gov about ages, sex and residence of those infected/dead | 20:50 |
| LjL | That also annoys me about the govnerment | 20:50 |
| LjL | Also, Japan has probably at least as high an average age as us | 20:51 |
| LjL | %wa median age in Italy | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Italy | median age): Result: 45.9 years (world rank: 2nd) (2015 estimate) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=median+age+in+Italy | 20:51 |
| LjL | %wa median age in Japan | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Japan | median age): Result: 46.3 years (world rank: 1st) (2015 estimate) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=median+age+in+Japan | 20:51 |
| LjL | %wa life expectancies in Italy, Japan | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Italy Japan | life expectancy): Results: Italy | 82.5 years Japan | 84 years → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=life+expectancies+in+Italy%2C+Japan | 20:51 |
| LjL | See? | 20:51 |
| LjL | But Japan is like | 20:51 |
| LjL | %cases japan | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Japan, there are 293 cases, 6 deaths (2.0% of cases), 43 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 19:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan for time series data. | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 12.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 20:52 |
| LjL | Well I thought lower rate, but still | 20:52 |
| Marvin85 | %cases brazil | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | Marvin85: In Brazil, there are 2 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 03, 2020, 19:30 GMT. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil for time series data. | 20:52 |
| twomoon | wow the average age in Italy is 46 ??? | 20:52 |
| twomoon | what the hell happened | 20:52 |
| contingo | “Italy is a country of old people” – Prof Massimo Galli | 20:53 |
| contingo | first sighting of face masks in my neighborhood | 20:54 |
| contingo | LjL, I've been trying to find an old New Scientist or Scientific American feature article (2012ish?) on theoretical future pandemics. They had some nickname for the strategy of a purely self-interested individual in a low-risk group intentionally trying to catch the virus, before healthcare services are overwhelmed, and assessed it in some detail | 21:02 |
| contingo | I just want to read it again | 21:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:52 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Boris fails to convince with sanitised take on coronavirus | John Crace → https://is.gd/TmRtTz | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:14 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: Iran to mobilise 300,000 soldiers and volunteers as 23 MPs infected - latest news → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 21:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:23 UTC: Ninth person with coronavirus dies in Washington as New York sees second case: CDC confirms 60 positive or presumed-positive cases nationwide Man in his 50s becomes New York’s second confirmed case Live updates: 51 cases confirmed in UK as plans set out Tensions over how to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/8YBMpz | 21:42 |
| pwr22 | %cases uk | 22:02 |
| Brainstorm | pwr22: Sorry, uk not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 22:02 |
| Albright | contingo: That sounds like an interesting read. Please ping me if you find it. | 22:06 |
| fructose | https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/ | 22:17 |
| LjL | contingo: I did think about the "get sick first" idea, not to the point of actively trying to catch it, but at least calming down about the measures my parents weren't taking; it was actually a bit of a useful strategy for me to avoid some of the panic... But then that's why I got so panicky when I started to hear you could well get re-infected | 22:19 |
| LjL | i usually have the bad habit of tapping during dinner but now i don't touch the phone while i'm having dinner for obvious reasons, hence the delay :P | 22:20 |
| contingo | yeah, also if you were to go past that point, then as someone co-habiting, many tricky considerations | 22:22 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: I've found the location to JH's latest data and will be changing the format of that file you are using | 22:22 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, hey don't break my toys | 22:22 |
| tinwhiskers | You can download it it directly from JH (arcgis) as json if you like, otherwise carry on using that file but the format will change at some point. | 22:24 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, it's okay, let me know (about the change, and/or about the direct download). i was *thinking* that maybe i wanted time series data to make more calculations automatically, but i'm not really sure i want the added complications of that | 22:25 |
| tinwhiskers | https://services1.arcgis.com/0MSEUqKaxRlEPj5g/arcgis/rest/services/ncov_cases/FeatureServer/1/query?f=json&where=(Confirmed%20%3E%200)%20AND%20(Recovered%3C%3E0)&returnGeometry=false&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&outFields=*&orderByFields=Recovered%20desc%2CCountry_Region%20asc%2CProvince_State%20asc&resultOffset=0&resultRecordCount=250&cacheHint=true | 22:25 |
| LjL | that's a mouthful | 22:25 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, it has individualized "last updates", cool | 22:26 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 22:26 |
| LjL | i have post-dinner exhaustion though, i will probably change the code later | 22:28 |
| LjL | i can always fall back on the old official data for a while if you change things in the meanwhile | 22:28 |
| tinwhiskers | No worries. I'll leave the other file intact for now | 22:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:12 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus: Iran to mobilise 300,000 soldiers and volunteers as 23 MPs infected - latest news → https://is.gd/m5NUub | 22:31 |
| LjL | 23 | 22:32 |
| LjL | i'm just letting that number float in my head | 22:32 |
| LjL | those are the people who have the means to get the most protected | 22:32 |
| LjL | and possibly some advance knowledge | 22:32 |
| LjL | %cases iran | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | KeyError: 'Name' (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 42, in data) | 22:33 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, HEY! | 22:33 |
| tinwhiskers | oops | 22:33 |
| LjL | :P | 22:33 |
| tinwhiskers | umm | 22:33 |
| LjL | it's okay do what you need to | 22:33 |
| LjL | i'll just get scared if i see more of these numbers anyway | 22:34 |
| tinwhiskers | OK, I've gone ahead and updated to the new format since I screwed up anyway | 22:35 |
| tinwhiskers | so it's semi-colon delimited now (depsite being a .csv filename). The content is otherwise obvious | 22:35 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, wait. that will break my site too :-( | 22:37 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 22:37 |
| tinwhiskers | ah well, I'll just fix it | 22:37 |
| LjL | don't sweat it, when i piling mistakes on Brainstorm's code i better just stop it for a bit | 22:45 |
| LjL | https://framapic.org/nnKQN9siF9jK/8FWSaX1fbDPY.png here's a pretty creepy graph for anyone who's not that young (and also those who are, really) | 23:16 |
| BruntLIVE | umm | 23:33 |
| LjL | muu | 23:34 |
| BruntLIVE | wanna hold my hand? | 23:34 |
| LjL | sure, i'm probably more likely to be infected than you are | 23:35 |
| BruntLIVE | The first presumptive case of the novel coronavirus in North Carolina is linked to a Seattle-area nursing home facility where five residents were sick and later died, authorities in the Tar Heel state said Tuesday. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-case-washington/index.html | 23:49 |
| LjL | unfortunately when it hits hospitals, nursing homes, or things like that, i've noticed it tends to be... bad | 23:50 |
| BruntLIVE | i see entire nursing homes lost | 23:50 |
| pwr22 | This is five minutes walk from me... | 23:52 |
| fructose | LjL: This might be a good resource for your list... https://promedmail.org/coronavirus/ | 23:59 |
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