libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2020-03-06

contingotinwhiskers I could explore that option, over the coming... indefinite period of time00:01
contingoa town in Sabah, Malaysia named Kota Kinabalu used to be my go-to escape destination, because it was really cheap, but good healthcare, food, social stuff, right next to great coral reefs and primary rainforest00:03
contingobut not so ideal now00:03
tinwhiskersI have vietnam in my sights next. Amazing how they have not had any cases for ages considering they share a border with China.00:04
twomoonthat is bizarre. even indonesia finally reported some cases00:04
twomoonare there still tigers in malaysian forests?00:05
philhttps://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/832616259598610432?s=1900:05
philThis was pretty spot on00:05
BrainstormAustralia: +5 confirmed (now 60), +1 recoveries (now 22). Japan: +3 confirmed (now 364). US: +6 confirmed (now 221). Santa Clara, CA, US: +6 confirmed (now 20). World: +14 confirmed (now 98126), +1 recoveries (now 53950)00:06
contingotwomoon yes! In West Malaysia, in the remotest regions of the largest national park00:07
contingoapparently there might be other sites, but that's best known one00:12
twomooni suppose hanging durians falling on you are more of a threat than tigers these days00:14
contingoat the field stations I've been to I think #1 cause of injury was people hacking their own limbs with parangs/machetes when trying to clear vegatation00:18
LjLurgh00:18
contingobut windfall of branches is a big deal00:18
LjLSanta Clara, CA!00:19
contingoelephants are dangerous and do cause problems, wild boar too...00:20
LjLwild boar cause problems in Rome, for that matter00:21
LjLlike, not quite the city center, but almost00:21
contingosun bears can be scary but I don't know of any actual attacks00:21
LjLItaly in general is going wild with boars for some reason00:21
twomoonwild boar scare me00:24
twomooni've seen them in Hong Kong00:24
BruntLIVEYEAH yeah00:30
python476hi back00:34
python476whats up on your front00:35
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Chongqing, Mainland China: +10 recoveries (now 512)00:36
LjLcontingo, i was submitted this supposed piece of advice for "verification" (originally in italian, so obviously by my parents)... https://paste.ee/r/4xztf/0  the advice about drinking frequently seems just like something that's at least not harmful, but what about fibrosis tending to be present before other symptoms, and this peculiar "test" of holding your breath for 10 seconds? completely made up, or kernel of truth?00:37
LjL%data italy00:42
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar  5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.00:42
contingouh00:42
LjLoh lord why does the mortality rate keep getting worse00:42
phil%data Japan00:43
Brainstormphil: In Japan, there are 364 cases, 6 deaths (1.6% of cases), 43 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 00:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan for time series data.00:43
LjLbit different mortality eh... but Japan's sample is small. how about00:44
LjL%data Korea00:44
BrainstormLjL: In South Korea, there are 6088 cases, 40 deaths (0.7% of cases), 135 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 00:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Korea for time series data.00:44
contingoI would say if you can't hold your breath for ten seconds without issues then yeah, you have some issue00:44
contingothat's all I'd say00:44
LjLcontingo, heh, okay00:44
contingoif you can hold it, it doesn't mean you aren't infected00:45
contingoI'd say this is pretty much solid gibberish00:46
TDCPure FUD Dr. Francis Boyle Full Interview: Coronavirus Is An Offensive Bioweapon  bitchute.com/video/tkiC9POPQYdC/00:46
tinwhiskersno, that's FUD ^00:47
LjLcontingo, yeah i thought so. i do have a little more concern about the fibrosis though, in terms of like, is it there even when nearly asymptomatic, and does it actually go away even if you get only "mild" pneumonia... i guess we have no answers to these things, but when you consider this is likely to become an actual pandemic (as in, most people infected), if we're all going to have a virus that makes our lungs worse, it's not exactly great news00:47
tinwhiskersoh, I'm confused.... never mind :-/00:47
LjLTDC, i thought you had left over finding yourself in a channel with people whose ideas you didn't share00:47
tinwhiskersTDC, you are correct. That is complete FUD.00:48
TDCLjL huh? i went lookin at the mushroom boards for a bit, little happenin in Georgia yet00:49
LjLTDC, fair enough. i need to warn you though that the kind of statement you left this channel with isn't particularly welcome00:49
python476because your cars design are too good not to be from evil00:50
TDCbout the urine ?00:50
LjLTDC, well, that sounded a bit out-there, but then you went full "yet you let a dr inject aborted baby fetus cells into your brain?  theres logic 4 ya" and that's when if you hadn't left yourself i'd have probably given you a hand, is all00:51
TDCcars design ? oh tdc .... I run my car on vapor....00:51
TDC70mpg00:51
TDCohhh, ya... i usually get kikd speakin what i determinne ''hard truth'''  i dont Like getin 3D bans00:53
tinwhiskersYou could try not speaking nonsense...00:53
TDCcoming from tinhat wearer.more irony 4ya00:54
tinwhiskersoh, that's *much* better00:54
TDCif logic trumps personal belief, geathers will get russell'd huh ?00:55
TDCFeathers00:55
tinwhiskersagreed. Now you just need to bring some logic to the table.00:55
TDCI'll go bak to a bible thumper chan than... I'm sure you will all breathe a sigh of reluef then. ?00:56
tinwhiskersok00:56
tinwhiskersheh00:56
LjLokay speaking of hats, let's look at some italy-like numbers drawn out of a hat00:57
LjL%data iran00:57
BrainstormLjL: In Iran, there are 3513 cases, 108 deaths (3.1% of cases), 739 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 00:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran for time series data.00:57
LjLwell looking at their numbers they're actually evolving a lot better than us00:57
LjLhttps://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran;Italy  uncannily close, really00:58
tinwhiskersyes. Quite surprising the outcomes for people seem to better there than Italy.00:58
LjLwell, not if you make a temporary assumption that their numbers are from thin air00:59
tinwhiskersgood point00:59
LjLwhich seems to be what most people i've heard believe00:59
LjLbut that still doesn't make Italy's numbers any good00:59
philI would think Japan's mortality rate would be high given their population demographics00:59
tinwhiskersJapan is another interesting case. Very linear infection trajectory.00:59
LjLphil, right, that was given to me as a possible explanation for Italy being that bad. but i looked at the statistics: Lombardy is pretty old but not any older than Italy as a whole, and Italy as a whole is actually a bit younger than Japan01:00
LjLtinwhiskers, yes, they seem to be managing it almost incredibly well. it keeps increasing, keeps increasing... but stays linear01:00
LjLbut they're not the only ones, only the ones with the biggest numbers01:00
LjL(that are linear)01:00
tinwhiskersIt kinda looks like it's very slowly picking up, but they seem to be managing very well.01:00
LjL(also compared to some others, they're *very* exactly linear)01:00
LjLomg, Japan is light yellow on white now01:01
LjLdo you just hate my eyes01:01
tinwhiskersyeah... Maybe I should drop yellow from the pallette01:01
LjLhere are the virtuous https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan;Singapore;Vietnam;Hong%20Kong;Taiwan01:01
tinwhiskerscoming up with a good palette proved more difficult than I expected01:02
twomoonjesus 3.8% morticity rate now....that's impossible01:02
LjLtinwhiskers, so do it all over again and make the background black :P01:02
LjL> morticity01:02
LjLi'm afraid it's not very impossible01:03
LjL%data World01:03
BrainstormLjL: In World, there are 98126 cases, 3356 deaths (3.4% of cases), 53950 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 00:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data.01:03
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with โ…” of cases undetected), and less than 5.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries).01:03
twomooni'm praying for tokyo right now01:03
LjLnow, my bot's "mortality range" estimates have been quite harshly criticized, but when you look at a large sample (such as the world's), you see that 5.9%, which is not *that* much higher from what you might expect if things get quite out of control, like in Wuhan01:03
LjL(although Wuhan's theoretically better)01:03
LjL%data Wuhan01:03
BrainstormLjL: Sorry, Wuhan not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.01:03
LjL%data Hubei01:04
BrainstormLjL: In Hubei, Mainland China, there are 67466 cases, 2902 deaths (4.3% of cases), 40592 recoveries as of Thu Mar  5 15:53:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Hubei for time series data.01:04
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming deaths/cases with โ…” of cases undetected), and less than 6.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries).01:04
twomoonthat's a much tighter range now, yeah01:04
LjLwell, so, if Italy can't treat patients somewhat successfully, at least 4.3% seems quite possible01:04
twomoondidn't wuhan get the worse strain of the two?01:04
twomoonlet's just assume that italy got the less deadly strain01:04
LjLnot really, also, these "two strains" theory was rebuffed01:04
twomoonahh ok01:05
twomoonwasn't paying attention to latest news01:05
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Argentina: +1 confirmed (now 2). ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +3 recoveries (now 52266). ๐Ÿ”ธ Inner Mongolia, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 65). ๐Ÿ”ธ Switzerland: +1 confirmed (now 119). ๐Ÿ”ธ U.A.E.: +2 confirmed (now 29). ๐Ÿ”ธ United Arab Emirates: +1 confirmed (now 29). ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +5 confirmed (now 98131), +3 recoveries (now 53953)01:06
LjLtwomoon, you shouldn't take a preliminary study as established "news" in the first place. we talk about them, but they're just what they are01:06
LjLstudies get peer-reviewed for a reason01:06
twomoonyeah that's true01:07
tinwhiskersLjL: where are you getting the stats updates from?01:14
LjLtinwhiskers, you01:15
tinwhiskersoh :-)01:15
tinwhiskershow often are you polling for changes?01:16
LjLtinwhiskers, every 0.5 seconds01:17
LjLno every... i don't remember01:18
tinwhiskershaha01:18
LjLfive minutes01:18
tinwhiskersok01:18
LjLtinwhiskers, keep in mind every time someone calls the command it polls your server anyway, because i do like to do things efficiently and conserving bandwidth01:22
tinwhiskersfwiw, mine only update every 30 minutes at xx:05:00 and xx:35:0001:22
tinwhiskersyeah01:22
tinwhiskersno worries about that01:22
LjLwell but it's hard to hardcode those two particular times so i'll just keep polling blind ;(01:23
tinwhiskersbut I don't care that you're polling every 5 minutes. That's entirely reasonable.01:23
LjLalso, make it more often, we want to see the victims practically as they drop dead01:23
tinwhiskerslol01:23
Hail_Satanvictims are just statistics01:23
python476statistics are victims too01:24
tinwhiskersok, every 15 mins now01:24
LjL80% of statistics are victims01:24
LjLyay01:24
LjLtinwhiskers, it also helps my code turnover time because now i don't have to wait 30 minutes to see what i did wrong in the code!01:25
tinwhiskersheh01:25
LjLdamn01:26
LjLthere are practically no oxygen concentrators left on Prime :(01:26
LjLi knew i should have ignored what my parents said and bought one anyway01:26
LjLalso by "practically" i mean ""01:26
tinwhiskersI didn't know of such a thing01:26
tinwhiskershow does it work?01:27
LjLtinwhiskers, there was one that was "just" โ‚ฌ130... it would probably burst into flames but anyway, there were only 3 left, and by the time i was uncertain on whether to get it, it was gone. but there were more for between โ‚ฌ250 and โ‚ฌ300. now most look over โ‚ฌ300 and they are not Prime so they may as well not exist01:27
tinwhiskersdoes it chemically extract some of the other gases?01:27
LjLtinwhiskers, Wikipedia says there are two methods of operations01:27
LjLbut i didn't understand the first thing about either01:27
tinwhiskersok01:28
tinwhiskersit uses expendable cartridges?01:28
LjLanyway i understand they provide something like 50% oxygen-rich air01:28
LjLdon't think so01:28
tinwhiskerswow. neat01:28
LjLmy dad's old, and a smoker01:28
LjLit is like... in case he gets bad pneumonia from this, and the healthcare system is gone01:28
tinwhiskersyeah. that sounds like a great idea01:29
LjLwell, was like, when they still had them01:29
tinwhiskers:-(01:29
LjLtinwhiskers, but i discussed it with my mom (pretty sure my dad would have been just mad) and she was... almost mad. i tried to make it sound reasonable but she was like "no"01:29
LjLi mean, technically i could do it anyway01:29
tinwhiskershmm01:29
LjLbut it's not great to create more tensions when we're all stuck inside a home and can barely go out01:29
tinwhiskersgetting to say "I told you so" will be a somewhat hollow victory.01:30
LjLtinwhiskers, they didn't even outright admit it last time they realized it (which was when i was telling them that the elderly should stay at home, and they ignored that, and three days later the head of government said it, and then they were like oh, okay)01:30
tinwhiskersyeah, you mentioned that :-p01:30
LjLi guess i'll have "I TOLD YOV SO" embossed on his grave01:31
LjLthat should solve it01:31
tinwhiskersheh01:31
contingoIn Loving Memory but HE SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO HIS SON01:32
LjLweird though, .co.uk still has a bunch on Prime... they have increased in price but they are there01:33
LjL%tr >de oxygen concentrator01:33
BrainstormLjL, English to German: SAUERSTOFFKONZENTRIERER (MateCat) โ€” Sauerstoff-Konzentrator (Google) โ€” Sauerstoffkonzentrator (Wikipedia) โ€” Sauerstoff #Konzentrator (Apertium)01:33
tinwhiskerssounds tasty01:34
LjLokay german, i get it you're german01:34
LjL.de has barely any left in stock01:34
LjLor... none, since the one i'm seeing is really some other thing01:34
tinwhiskerswell, TIL, oxygen concentrators... I always assumed they used tanks of o2 in hospitals.01:35
LjLtinwhiskers, they do01:35
LjLif you need to deliver *a lot* of oxygen a concentrator won't do, i guess01:35
tinwhiskers*solely01:35
LjLtinwhiskers, i think concentrators are more used by people with COPD that's not advanced enough they need *a lot* of oxygen, since they're easier to stuff into a backpack than a super-heavy oxygen bottle01:36
tinwhiskersok, these are more for home use. right.01:36
LjLmeh i'm pissed off :(01:36
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 52304) ๐Ÿ”ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 278) ๐Ÿ”ธ Guangxi, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 217) ๐Ÿ”ธ Heilongjiang, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 380) ๐Ÿ”ธ Shandong, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 602) ๐Ÿ”ธ US: +{value} cases (now 229) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +{value} cases (now 98139), +{value} recoveries (now 53991)01:36
LjLpartly at myself01:36
LjLsee01:36
LjLthis is an example where i can do faster code turnover01:36
tinwhiskers:-)01:36
tinwhiskersHow much do the oxygen concentrators you're looking at cost?01:37
LjLtinwhiskers, โ‚ฌ300 and above now, pretty much... but they were โ‚ฌ250 and above before, except for that one oddball โ‚ฌ130 one, so it's not like they've skyrocketed. the big thing is they aren't sold on Prime, though, which means... well, i'm not buying a โ‚ฌ300 item from some random seller and their shipping01:38
tinwhiskersnot bad01:38
Hail_Satan %tr >de flamethrower01:39
LjLtinwhiskers, this is the one that used to be โ‚ฌ130 (on amazon.it though, no idea on co.uk before) https://www.amazon.co.uk/ETE-ETMATE-Portable-Concentrator-Generators/dp/B07RSZ6BKN/ref=sr_1_11?keywords=oxygen+concentrator&qid=1583455123&sr=8-1101:39
LjLHail_Satan, won't work with a leading space01:39
Hail_Satan%tr >de flamethrower01:39
BrainstormHail_Satan, English to German: Flammenwerfer (Apertium, MateCat, MateCat, Google, Wikipedia)01:39
LjLat least they all agree01:39
LjLMateCat doubly so01:39
Hail_Satanhow dare MateCat agree with MateCat :D01:39
LjLthat's a bit weird of cats, yeah01:40
LjLthey usually don't01:40
contingothe main way I have yet to prep now01:41
contingois to stop being sick in the first place01:41
contingowhatever bug I have, it's really annoying01:43
contingoanything on top of this would definitely be a doubly whammy01:43
LjLcontingo, i'm taking a B vitamin complex. because they have been supposed to boost your immune system since time immemorial, they were probably taking them in babylonia. however, the only effect i can verify is my pee becoming *very* yellow01:43
contingoare you drinking plenty of water?01:44
LjLcontingo, i could do better... but i don't mean as in very dense, it doesn't look dense, just... kinda fluorescent01:45
LjLmaybe it's a B vitamin complex plus some radioactive boost01:45
python476I went to Paris today01:45
python476for interviews01:45
python476bro, a woman came in the train01:45
python476coughing like crazy01:45
python476heavy breathing, 5 minutes 01:45
python476I almost fell laughing01:46
LjLif you expect not to get sick in Paris, you obviously have wrong expectations from Paris01:46
Hail_Satanshe gonna die01:46
python476LjL: traditional Paris pest killed covid01:46
LjLah, clever01:46
python476if one wants to cause a panic in a train, she did it perfectly01:46
python476I think one lady ran away01:46
python476in any case I had my hand sanitizer so I took it out, and all hot girl nearby started having wild sex with me, I was the alpha male01:47
python476(warning: absurd joke inserted somewhere above)01:47
LjLif i went on the train with an N95 mask i'd probably get stabbed01:48
LjLand not even by a hot girl01:48
LjLoh, i was mistaken on amazon.co.uk still having o2 concentrators on Prime... i had simply failed to click on the Prime box correctly. or rather, Amazon failed at UI, since the checkmark was there but the page hadn't reloaded evidently01:49
python476heh01:49
python476that's a book story01:49
LjLwell, this is encouraging. i mean, it makes me think that if everyone else bought them, then my idea must not have been *completely* stupid01:49
LjLalthough to be fair, there's a lot of things everybody does that are *completely* stupid01:49
mandiblegripcontingo: Can confirm the yellow pee from the B vitamin complex01:51
contingoOK I didn't know it was a thing01:52
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +10 recoveries (now 52314) ๐Ÿ”ธ Beijing, Mainland China: +4 cases (now 422), +1 recoveries (now 298) ๐Ÿ”ธ US: +1 cases (now 230) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 cases (now 98140), +10 recoveries (now 54001)01:52
contingothey're out of ECMO machines too01:55
LjLcontingo, that doesn't sound like a typical Prime product01:55
contingomy Lemsip stockpile will have to suffice01:56
LjLcontingo, how COVID-like are your symptoms at present? :P01:56
contingono cough, no sore throat01:58
contingofatigue, aches, bedtime sneezing01:58
contingofor nearly two weeks01:58
contingono sinus congestion01:59
contingoit feels like when you just start to come down with a proper flu, all the aches and ughness02:00
contingobut it refuses to develop into anything concrete, or to go away02:01
LjLargh02:01
LjLso here's the mysterious reason why my rss feed parser isn't really working02:01
tinwhiskerscontingo: I've had a persistent hard breathing, "heavy" lungs and pain when I inhale, and lethargy. Similarly, no sinus congestion.02:01
LjLmaybe i should have thought about looking at the obvious thing02:01
contingoyou know me, I usually run or work out every day and have copious energy for side projects02:02
LjLhttps://paste.ee/r/qObbo/002:02
contingothe system is definitely down with something02:02
contingotinwhiskers hmm, I have also felt slightly short of breath, and a few twinges...02:03
contingo%cases Tonga02:03
Brainstormcontingo: Sorry, Tonga not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.02:03
LjLcontingo, i have that sort of thing periodically and it lasts a couple of days and comes back pretty often... no sneezing, but fatigue mainly and that sensation like i'm about to get flu02:03
contingohow long for, tinwhiskers?02:03
contingoI might "challenge" it in a few days, if it's the same. Make myself do some exercise and not nap. And see if that provokes anything02:05
tinwhiskersgah. Bloody third world internet.... 3-4 weeks now. I've had two courses of antibiotics so it's probably not bacterial.02:06
tinwhiskersAlthough I have had pneumonia before and it takes weeks to clear up after the infection is knocked on the head, so I guess it's possible.02:07
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +46 recoveries (now 52360) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +46 recoveries (now 54047)02:07
tinwhiskersThe doctor couldn't hear any lung gurgling this time though so I'm really uncertain.02:07
Hail_Satanits on its way out02:08
contingomy mother had severe mycoplasma pneumonia several years ago (which has left her with some lung damage, LjL), and it took half a year to resolve02:08
tinwhiskersmmm02:08
LjL:(02:08
Hail_Satanyeah I believe I had a SARS variant in 2004-5 and coronavirus this year02:09
Hail_Satanboth times, lungs seem permanently affected02:09
contingoshe reminded me today that I was hospitalized for four days when I was 14, with pleurisy02:09
contingoso all our lungs are suspect02:09
tinwhiskersoh. neat02:10
Hail_Satanat least it wasn't dropsy02:10
LjLnow i'm feeling a *lot* better about missing the window of opportunity for the o2 concentrator02:10
contingoHi, Hail_Satan 02:10
Hail_Satano/02:10
tinwhiskersInteresting...pleurisy.02:10
contingothat's the name of my home network02:11
Hail_Satanwhat, "Pleurisy" or "Hail_Satan?"02:11
contingowell actually "Satan is Lord"02:11
contingo(I live next to a small evangelical church)02:12
Hail_Satanoh nice02:12
Hail_Satanhave you seen the movie???02:12
contingoyeah so it's really edgy02:12
contingono02:12
Hail_Satanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8k2e7BXpsc02:12
Hail_SatanI highly recommend it02:12
Hail_SatanI joined the Satanic Temple after watching this02:13
tinwhiskerscontingo: we have a suspected case here but no labs to test so no confirmed cases in Tonga :-)02:13
tinwhiskersignorance is bliss02:14
contingogood horns on those guys02:14
Hail_SatanEveryone I showed this to howled with delight02:15
Hail_SatanAt first a few hippies were like "not cool, I'm not into actual evil maaan"02:15
Hail_Satantook em a second02:15
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Canada: +8 cases (now 45) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +7 recoveries (now 52367) ๐Ÿ”ธ Switzerland: +1 cases (now 120) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +9 cases (now 98149), +7 recoveries (now 54054)02:22
izman, cruise ship quarantine seems like the worst idea02:32
izi guess it's better than just letting everyone onto the mainland02:33
izbut it's like.. turning a few cases into hundreds02:33
Hail_Satantrue, but on the other hand, there's nothing anyone can do to stop the spread02:34
Hail_Satannothing works02:34
izyet another reason to never go on cruises02:34
LjLiz, i guess while aerosol transmission wasn't very ascertained, they maybe thought that as long as they kept everyone quarantined into their cabins except for necessities, it would be manageable02:36
LjLbut then if there's aerosol transmission it gets all into the air ducts, plus now we know it's all over toilets02:37
LjL%u ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ02:39
izyeah, just that many ppl that close together is a recipie for transmission02:39
izthe one off the coast of japan caused many of the others to get it02:39
izand they are doing another one off the coast of california right now02:40
LjLwhat the heck are those two characters Brainstorm posted at the end O.o02:40
izprob a chinese multi-byte character that is just being printed as 2 bytes of ascii02:40
izor wait, it's not all chinese02:41
izmaybe some unicode character that is multibyte?02:41
LjLi just have no idea why it'd post that since it's not in the code02:44
LjLanyway, it appears that Reddit hates me a bit too much even when i'm not *actually* hammering it with RSS requests so much02:46
LjLso i'm going to cycle my router to get a new IP and hopefully mend it02:46
LjLsee you on the other side02:47
sneepLjL: This happens when lines get cut off at IRC's limit of 512 chars and a unicode symbol and the cut off happens in the middle of a unicode symbol02:49
sneep-and a unicode symbol02:50
LjLoh02:50
LjLi guess i can send it from Matrix instead02:50
LjLor, uhm, just use the existing provisions i have for long lines, maybe02:50
LjLtootlestime02:52
LjLProfessor Jonathan Shewhuk of UC Berkeley has this to say about COVID-19 in a lengthy, informative, and concerned email to his students:03:01
LjL    "An estimated 20% of cases require hospitalization (allegedly 50% in Italy), with a mean hospital stay of 10 days, usually with pneumonia symptoms. And although the virus is deadliest among the old and sick, some young, healthy people have died. Your odds of survival are very high, but if you have a severe case, it might be the worst experience of your life. Many patients need to be intubated and kept on ventilators. Moreover, if there are too many 03:01
LjLcases at once, then like in Wuhan, there won't be enough ventilators."03:01
dunnp:(03:04
LjLi'm angry, i'm angry at my parents for not letting me do what i thought was appropriate given the information i had (and now think even MORE appropriate given the information i have now)03:05
LjLi'm angry at myself for not doing it anyway03:05
LjLand i'm angry at all the speculators who as soon as they here "people will want X" buy all of the X's03:06
LjLalso i'm angry at the government and WHO who have been sending mixed signals of all sorts all along03:06
dunnpwhat would you have done?03:06
LjLbought an o2 concentrator03:06
LjLand also why are 50% of patients hospitalized in Italy? we can get to hear endless hours of TV programmes most of which now concern the coronavirus03:07
LjLyet nobody tells us anything about the basic data03:07
LjLor even the fact our basic data are so different from other countries03:07
LjLSpec, โ†‘03:07
LjLthis is going to be a year (at least?) of basically never leaving home, which will probably bring us to yell at each other all day, with every time one of us leaves home coming with the risk my parents will get deadly pneumonia and clearly there won't be enough ventilators to deal with them, unless they get it early03:08
LjL(and i'm not even sure it's "early" enough yet)03:08
skyofdustDon't panic, and don't be angry at yourself, that will only go in circles and it's not helpful to yourself or your loved ones.03:13
skyofdustWhat can you do now?03:13
LjLvent about it on IRC03:13
LjLand keep watching in case an o2 concentrator pops up on prime03:14
LjLwhich seems unlikely03:14
LjLand also, learn for the future that if i think something and i feel pretty convinced of it, yet people near me look at me like i'm crazy, i'm probably right anyway03:14
LjLassuming there's a future to speak of03:15
skyofdustWhat about furin inhibitors? They could act as profilaxis03:18
LjLi haven't understood a thing about that whole thing. ACE1, ACE2, AT1, furin, and does it need to be blockers or inhibitors... if contingo can't make sense of that then i'm pretty sure neither can i03:19
LjLadditionally, those are prescription medications. either my parents are already on the "right" ones, or they aren't, and i can't do much about that03:19
skyofdustProbably more and more research will come with the coming days, for now just ask your folks not to leave the house03:20
LjLi'm almost in disbelief that when i searched "concentratore ossigeno" on amazon three days ago, there were like a dozen, and now there's only... books about them03:20
skyofdustWhoa :/03:21
LjLskyofdust, me leaving the house will be just as bad, though, since they'll almost ceertainly get it from me03:21
dunnpare o2 concentrators for people with sleep apnea?03:21
LjLno, that's CPAP machines03:21
LjLCPAP machines maintain a positive pressure of air so that your throat doesn't fold onto itself, but it's normal air, with the normal 20%ish oxygen03:21
skyofdustWell then there's not much we can do to take control of the situation03:21
LjLo2 concentrators make you breathe air with more oxygen03:22
skyofdustMy Dad is 65 and is a smoker, if the virus gets near our hometown I'm sure I'll go mad03:24
skyofdustIf I fly there it'll be worse because I'll have to get to an airport and travel throught 2 cities and that wouldn't be good.03:25
skyofdustMan I hadn't given it much thought.03:26
skyofdustI really hope the virus doesn't spread to my town, I haven't seen dad in a year and the thought of having seen him for the last time is ...weird.03:27
fructoseskyofdust: Containment does not seem realistic at the moment.03:28
LjLmy dad is 75, a smoker, and i'm in one of the currently worst outbreak areas... so yeah it does seem like i can't do much at this point, but it's hard not to feel angry about the previous ability to do something having been hindered in various ways03:28
LjLanyone know of any site that makes periodic searches on amazon and tells me if something matching my search shows up?03:29
skyofdustYeah I'm sorry of how I said it, we can't help that03:29
LjLi have that for ebay, but no idea about amazon03:29
MikeJoel%data US03:31
LjLBrainstorm!03:32
BrainstormLjL!03:32
LjL%data US03:32
LjL%covid US03:32
MikeJoelUsually the most effected area with a fever is the head03:32
LjLgroan03:32
MikeJoel:D03:32
LjL%data US03:35
BrainstormLjL: In US, there are 233 cases, 12 deaths (5.2% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 03:30:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.03:35
MikeJoel12? I don't recall of hearing of another03:35
dunnpso why do you need the oxygen? when you have trouble breathing?03:36
dunnpMikeJoel: there was on on a cruise ship03:37
dunnpin SF03:37
LjLdunnp, when you have pneumonia with fibrosis due to a serious case of COVID-1903:38
MikeJoeldunnp: because if on has trouble breathing - they are given oxygen to make up for the smaller amount of air they can take in03:38
dunnpwhat do they normally sell for LjL? $400 on amazon03:38
LjLconsidering that patients like my dad have a 15% chance of dying from COVID, if they get it at all, then "a serious case" is pretty much a given03:38
MikeJoeldunnp: The cruise ship death was the 1 in california (bring the total to 11)03:38
LjLdunnp, the cheapest one was โ‚ฌ130, that sold out fast, then between โ‚ฌ250 and โ‚ฌ300, but now all over โ‚ฌ300, and more importantly not Prime, can't rely on that03:39
MikeJoelcaution should be used of course since breathing pure oxygen has risks.03:40
izdon't smoke03:40
LjLthey do not supply pure oxygen03:40
LjLiz, you mean "don't have smoked five years ago"03:40
LjLbecause stopping smoking *now* isn't going to do a thing03:40
izwell, i meant if you were breathing pure oxygen03:41
MikeJoelLjL: actually studies show that stopping smoking at any point will show improvements within a week03:41
LjLah, well, that ought to be obvious, but breathing pure oxygen *is* dangerous in other ways too03:41
LjLMikeJoel, "improvements" that make the prognosis on COVID-19 better?03:42
LjLif anything you'll start coughing more mucus03:42
LjLwhich may not be helpful at such a particular time03:42
izyeah, i think it's useful to think of the human body as like a standing wave pattern over rocks in a stream.. your cells keep replacing themselves and just your pattern persists03:42
contingoI can make sense of it LjL 03:43
contingoas in i'm intellectually capable of digesting the literature on it and forming a view on the state of play at the moment03:45
contingoit just keeps getting put off03:45
MikeJoelLjL: within a week or so the blood increases its abillity to carry oxygen - which is good in whatever condition your in03:47
contingoorder-update@amazon.co.uk: Hello, We are pleased to report that the following item will dispatch sooner than expected: [lots of gels]03:48
LjLwell, at any rate, if i couldn't even convince my mom we should spend a moderate amount of money on buying this thing, i know one thing for sure, i'm not convincing my dad to quit smoking now03:48
pwr22<LjL "anyone know of any site that mak"> Something like https://camelcamelcamel.com/ ?03:48
LjLpwr22, probably not... i do use that one a lot, but that track prices of items. what i need now is to find something that tells me whether a certain type of item becomes available again (on Prime)03:49
MikeJoelI thought Prime already did that kind of thing?03:49
LjLuh?03:50
LjLlike how03:50
MikeJoelIsn't there like a wish list or something like that - I haven't been to amazon for a while03:51
LjLthere are lists... you can put existing items into them, you can't put items that aren't there, and they don't warn you of anything03:51
pwr22LjL: and on the angiotensin related stuff. What I've recently learnt from this is that even medical professionals struggle to correctly understand that system to the extent there are literally "wrong" papers published on it03:52
LjLpwr22, well that seems to be pretty much what happened with some of the "rapid response" posts i've seen on the BMJ03:53
pwr22For instance people seem to confuse a lot ACE (an enzyme that converts angiotensin-1 to angiotensin-2) for the receptors that angiotensin-2 binds to03:53
MikeJoel%data US03:54
BrainstormMikeJoel: In US, there are 233 cases, 12 deaths (5.2% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 03:30:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.03:54
pwr22ACE-2 is enzyme that converts angtiotensin-2 to angiotensin-103:54
pwr22I may be wrong in my understanding of this even - maybe contingo can correct me if so?03:54
MikeJoel%data New York03:55
BrainstormMikeJoel: In World, there are 23 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 03:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.03:55
MikeJoelWOW! I curred it all!03:55
MikeJoelI AM THE MAN!03:55
MikeJoel%data NY03:55
BrainstormMikeJoel: In World, there are 23 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 03:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.03:55
MikeJoelwhatever03:55
MikeJoel%data Maine03:56
BrainstormMikeJoel: Sorry, Maine not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.03:56
contingoare there full peer-reviewed studies that are confused at that level?? or just stuff in the urgent letters / quick response correspondence section of journals. I think more the latter03:56
pwr22Yeah the latter03:57
pwr22But they're getting cited a lot right now and articles being written up on them which have even more inaccuracies than the underlying articles03:58
contingoI'm going to sleep but I will attempt authoritative mastery of viral ACE2 ACE1 binder receptor conversion enzyme blocker subdomain antagonist moieties tomorrow03:58
pwr22LjL:  ACE inhibitors work by reducing the amount of angiotensin-1 converted to angiotensin-2 which means there's less angiotensin-2 which means less binding to it's receptor sites (the same ones used by corona viruses usually) which means less contraction of blood vessels and so lower blood pressure03:59
MikeJoelIm thinking soon we will be seeing that use death to cases ration drop drastically. There is some talk that within a week 400,000 people will be tested. Likely a lot of people have had it and didn't even realize it.03:59
contingonitey nite03:59
pwr22So there's no mechanism there which should affect the virus03:59
contingowell03:59
pwr22contingo: night03:59
contingowait a sec03:59
LjLMikeJoel, i think that's a red herring, but we'll see03:59
pwr22ARBs are different though04:00
Hail_SatanMikeJoel, I am pretty sure I've already had it.04:00
Hail_Satanlive in rural USA04:00
LjLyou been swabbed?04:00
pwr22Since they are competitive inhibitors of the angiotensin-2 receptors (I think)04:00
contingoinhibitors and blockers can affect the various aspects of the illness therapeutically not just by interfering with viral binding 04:00
contingoanyway 04:01
contingoand so to bed04:01
Hail_SatanLjL - there are no tests available for most of the USA04:01
LjLnight04:01
pwr22Yeah but inhibitors actually are associated with increased respiratory issues as a side effect04:01
Hail_Satanand when I was actually sick, there was no such thing as a "test"04:01
LjLHail_Satan, then you aren't pretty sure you had it04:01
pwr22Which is when blockers are considered04:01
MikeJoelMy brother thinks he's had it. Like a cold but congestion - now he is over it but still getting the congestion out.04:01
Hail_SatanLjL - yes I am, based on the experience of living in my body for about 50 years.04:01
LjLthis has symptoms mostly similar to a flu and other common diseases. it takes a test to have reasonable certainty04:01
LjLHail_Satan, oh, and you've had this virus before in those 50 years?04:02
pwr22Citation: I was moved from ACE inhibitors to ARBs after having persistent flu symptoms for many many months04:02
Hail_Satanyeah I've had the flu dozens of times.  Not once did I have arrhythmia or dyspnea.  Not once.04:02
Hail_SatanI had something similar... in 2004-5, when SARS was going around.04:02
LjLarrhythmia, is that even a symptom of it?04:02
pwr22Ramipril -> candersarten04:02
Hail_SatanMost people in our little town had 1 month long lung infections04:02
Hail_Satanwe locally referred to it as "the crud"04:02
LjLCT scanned as lung infection?04:03
Hail_Satanand I had permanent lung damage afterward.  Ever since 2005, I can produce sputum from my lungs any time of the day or night.04:03
Hail_Satannever before04:03
pwr22<contingo "inhibitors and blockers can affe"> I don't recall reading anything about that so far but happy to be pointed towards something04:03
MikeJoelLjL: actually since most cases so far are people who were sick and so were tested (because they were down bad [again all appeared to have had "previous" health issues]) then it only makes sense that many more would have had it without ever being tested because they weren't bad enough to go to a doctor.... statistically is it pretty sure04:03
Hail_SatanI was xrayed, because I asked for an xray04:03
LjLwell in that case i must have had it like... a year ago, since i just coughed up some sputum now, and this has been like that for months04:04
Hail_SatanYou might be aware that health care in the US is prohibitively expensive04:04
Hail_SatanLjL - Have you ever been afraid to go to sleep, because your heart was beating erratically and you couldn't catch your breath?04:04
Hail_Satanworried you'd die asleep?04:04
Hail_SatanNever happened before I got sick in January.04:05
LjLMikeJoel, sure, except the UK extended testing to anyone presenting with shortness of breath, even mild, regardless of ties with China, and they didn't find any big number of unexpected cases surfacing. also, the Veneto region in Italy swabbed about 7000 people last i checked, and just 250 were positive. such wide testing would reveal more cases if they were hidden04:05
Hail_Satanand those were onset symptoms, major ones baed on correlation between mild and severe cases04:05
Hail_Satandyspnea and cardiac arrhythmia04:05
Hail_SatanI'm not overweight and have "okay" cardio04:05
LjLHail_Satan, i have indeed, because i have been a hypochondriac before04:05
Hail_Satanoh04:06
pwr22Me too but that was when I was a kid04:06
LjLand i have enough anxiety that my heart does skip the odd beat04:06
Hail_Satanwell let me tell you, this was my first time04:06
Hail_Satanand it had nothing to do with anxiety04:06
pwr22I had heart palpatations, panic attacks etc04:06
Hail_Satanmy friends and I had a great time.  They left, and I got the crud04:06
pwr22I've had many ecgs though (for blood pressure) and things all seem fine04:06
Hail_SatanLjL - I realize what I'm saying has no proof04:07
Hail_SatanHowever, after telling all my friends this "conspiracy theory"04:07
Hail_Satanone of them mentioned they had hosted a group from Beijing at their Uni 2 weeks prior to all of us getting sick.04:07
MikeJoelmany things that are accepted scientifically have very little evidence so...04:07
Hail_Satanยฏ\_(ใƒ„)_/ยฏ04:07
Hail_SatanShe said "My husband told me not to tell you, but..."04:08
LjLthat was nice of him04:08
Hail_Satanall 3 of us were pretty raw ill with new symptoms we had never gotten from flu or cold04:08
Hail_SatanI lost hearing in one ear04:08
Hail_Satan(temporarily)04:08
LjLanyway, you should be able to get an antibody test and verify this. if not not (because testing is in early stages and they're probably at full capacity), maybe later.04:08
LjLmeanwhile keep in mind that there are many health issues that remain mysteries04:09
Hail_Satanweird shit like that.  He got some strange trigger for his own set of genetic illnesses that lay dormant.  And she was practically drowning in sputum04:09
Hail_Satanso, that's why I say: it's already been around the world.  04:09
Hail_SatanThe first cases had no contact with the Wet Market.04:09
Hail_SatanThat right there means there probably were two original clades.04:09
LjLWet Market?04:10
pwr22There are a lot of respiratory illnesses out there that can be severe04:10
Hail_Satanyeah, the Chinese market which was originally tagged as the source04:10
pwr22No reason to believe something was SARS-COV-2 over anything else04:10
Hail_SatanHuanan or whatever04:10
Hail_Satanpwr22 not a lot being triggered in communities04:10
LjLsorry but are you listening to yourself? you are asserting things about virus clades based on... having had respiratory issues after someone probably met some people from Bejing04:11
Hail_SatanI'm a 3-day flu guy, every time I get it, which is not every year.04:11
Hail_SatanI'm telling you my opinion04:11
LjLif scientists could do phylogeny of viruses based on this, they'd need no labs and RNA requencing04:11
Hail_Satanbased on my personal experience04:11
LjLthat's not an opinion, and it's not based on personal experience04:11
pwr22There are different strains of flu04:11
Hail_SatanAnd I'm neither lying nor attempting to foment panic04:11
LjLpersonal experience doesn't tell you how many clades of a virus there are04:11
MikeJoelLjL: wet market is a type of country open food market in China.... something that no 1st world country would allow04:11
pwr22I don't think you're doing either but I don't think there's much factual to what you're saying04:12
LjLMikeJoel, "wet" meaning what?04:12
Hail_SatanNo, facts do04:12
MikeJoellive animals being offered as meat products04:12
pwr22IMO04:12
Hail_Satanand that part is a fact04:12
pwr22Our brains are geared to look for patterns: but we are very bad at working out which patterns are good and which are bad04:12
Hail_SatanThe initial coronavirus patients from China had no known connection to the supposed source of the outbreak.  THAT means there's at least two, or the wet market is a red herring designed to keep us away from scrutinizing China's wider behavior04:12
LjL<Hail_Satan> Huanan or whatever โ† do you mean Wuhan?04:12
MikeJoel"wet" as in perishable04:13
Hail_Satan... LjL have you not heard?04:13
Hail_SatanI'll get you some links.04:13
MikeJoelas appossed to dry goods04:13
LjLheard of WHAT04:13
LjLHuanan is not a thing04:13
MikeJoelsnakes, fish, etc.,etc...  04:13
pwr22That's why we have the empirical scientific method - which often disagrees with intuitive human thinking (though not always)04:13
LjLmy brain is also very bad at knowing when to stop a pointless debate, too04:14
MikeJoel"scientific method" in theory - not in reality04:14
MikeJoelll04:14
LjLor at least at actually doing it04:14
Hail_Satanhttps://www.anorak.co.uk/460262/keyposts/28-animals-you-can-eat-at-chinas-wuhan-market.html04:14
Hail_Satanhttps://news.yahoo.com/menu-china-virus-market-rats-live-wolf-pups-111650959.html04:15
Hail_SatanThis one has since been revised, read for headline only:  https://nypost.com/2020/01/27/coronavirus-origin-traced-to-animal-market-in-wuhan-tests-confirm/04:15
MikeJoelas I said - not something your going to legally find in the UK or US etc.04:15
Hail_Satanhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-20/china-s-food-markets-can-be-breeding-grounds-for-deadly-viruses04:15
LjLokay, so that tells us... the virus came from animals04:15
LjLwe knew that already, for like two months, though, right?04:16
LjLwe also know it's probably got a reservoir in bats04:16
LjLpoint being?04:16
Hail_Satanhttps://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally04:16
MikeJoelLjL: you asked what a wet market was04:16
LjLi simply didn't know the term04:17
Hail_SatanLjL - the point being, it was spreading before anyone was blaming "the wet market"04:17
LjLi'm aware of the live animal trade at Wuhan's seafood market04:17
Hail_SatanThe name of that market was Huanan04:17
LjLHail_Satan, and your evidence is that you "had" it before the market thing happened?04:17
pwr22<Hail_Satan "LjL - the point being, it was sp"> So far I've not seen any good evidence of that04:17
Hail_SatanLjL no, I had it after it was identified as a novel coronavirus04:18
Hail_Satanbut before any US cases04:18
pwr22Based on evidence I've seen published so far, it looks like this strain began spreading in December04:18
MikeJoelI'll take two bats (with ebola), one snake (with covid-19).... maybe a couple of eels (with who knows what)04:18
LjLHail_Satan, are you in the US? did you have the virus?04:18
Hail_SatanRemember, the US wasn't testing anyone, and still isn't, unless they like show up at a major hospital04:18
Hail_SatanYes, and maybe.04:18
LjLso there were US cases, just untested ones, under your theory. how does that disprove its origin at that market?04:18
Hail_SatanI was ill for about 2 weeks04:18
dunnpHail_Satan: in rural US?04:18
Hail_Satanyes, dunnp04:18
dunnphow would it get there04:19
Hail_SatanLike I said, from my friend's Beijing group she hosted.04:19
Hail_Satanabout 90% of the people at the banquet she attended had flown over from China.04:19
dunnpwhat part of US?04:19
Hail_SatanNC04:19
MikeJoelthe dry part04:19
pwr22Or you got a strain of flu from a different country that you didn't have good immunity too so it hit you harder which compounds with your lung damage04:20
Hail_SatanWhich flu conveys the symptoms I described?04:20
almostCORONAVIRUS: Anti-viral herbs and minerals  bitchute.com/video/USgD10ImDeOq/04:20
almostmike adams04:20
MikeJoelviruses can effect the heart04:20
dunnpthey are testing in NC now..04:20
dunnpjust a case in raleigh04:20
Hail_Satandyspnea is like the #1 symptom for most assessments from mild-->intensive care patients04:20
LjLalmost, pseudoscience not particularly welcome04:21
Hail_SatanI can source that04:21
pwr22LjL: want me to delete on the matrix side?04:21
Hail_Satanit was a TWiV link04:21
LjLpwr22, doesn't even really cross my mind due to being used to irc, but sure04:21
LjLbut i am on matrix too, i can do it04:22
pwr22K04:22
LjL... if i find the riot.im tab04:22
pwr22Hail_Satan: when abouts was your illness?04:22
pwr22And anyhow, you are free to believe whatever you want ๐Ÿ™‚04:22
LjLpwr22, also do whatever you see fit, i don't want to run this channel in a very hierarchical way although i may end up doing it anyway, since i am a bit too deep into the issue (but who isn't, or won't be shortly, i guess?) to guarantee i can act rationally04:23
Hail_Satanpwr22 mid to late January, with lots of lung sputum surprises into 2nd week of Feb.04:24
Hail_SatanI'd be lecturing, and suddenly hack up a golf ball lougie.  That NEVER happens04:24
pwr22I don't think COVID-19 usually includes a productive cough?04:24
MikeJoelThere are only two options - 1) There are a lot of cases going undetected and so the 3.5% is not a real number -or- 2) Americans are so healthy that (like chickens) they only go down if they are so sick they are near death.... take my word #2 is not going to be true :D04:24
Hail_SatanI'll find that sympomatic analysis04:24
pwr22But I could believe you could contract something outside China at that time, just don't think it would be super likely but maybe I'm wrong?04:25
Hail_Satanmeanwhile, this is a great link, and I especially recommend it for LjL.  Scroll down far enough and SCMP talks about the wet market. 04:25
Hail_Satanhttps://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html04:25
LjLif anything i'd say a *dry* cough is the only real hallmark symptom of COVID-19 that i've seen... i mean, there's also fever and other concerning things like shortness of breath, but they're all things that a number of illnesses could bring. so is dry cough, really, but at least you can distinguish it from productive cough04:25
Hail_Satanpwr2, the subtext of my theory is "I think my whole town got SARS back then too, it's just that nobody tests for it"04:25
LjLHail_Satan, i am well aware of that link since it's one of the links that the paste in the channel's topic mentions as important ;)04:26
MikeJoeldry cough also can link to many things.... 04:26
Hail_SatanBTW:  Extreme yikes at the photo of the wetmarket operations04:26
LjLMikeJoel, yes, i'm certainly not saying that if you have a dry cough then you have COVID, that would be ridiculous. just that if you have a *productive* cough, then it's kind of less likely to be COVID04:26
Hail_Satanctrl-F "Trussed live chicken"04:26
MikeJoelYou know - the reality is that cold symptoms are easily connected to many other problems04:26
Hail_SatanSee Table 1:  https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930183-504:28
MikeJoellike so many things - you can have all the symptoms and be suffering something completely different. If your worried get tested - of course there is a % of false positives as well04:28
almostDehydrtation causes most illness to start04:28
Hail_Satanthere's a non pdf version of the above link, if needed:  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext04:28
LjLalmost, no, pathogens or haywire cells in your body cause most illness to start04:29
LjLalmost, i would appreciate if you didn't spout random pseudoscience that's not even related to the conversation that's going on04:29
MikeJoelUS is up to about 18,000 deaths from the flu so far in 2020 so - so far the flu is much more a thing to worry over right now04:29
Hail_Satanlow hydration may contribute to susceptibility to some illnesses.  04:29
pwr22<almost "Dehydrtation causes most illness"> Hydration is certainly most important but it won't be causative directly04:29
LjLMikeJoel, "so far", maybe, but luckily we can also look at trends, exponential trends in particular04:29
Hail_SatanMikeJoel, definitely.  Unless the US decides it wants to try China's containment methods.04:30
Hail_Satanpwr22 I like your style :)04:30
MikeJoelLjL: not really. To compare the US to china, korea, iran, or even italy (sorry) isn't a very equal comparison.04:31
LjL...04:31
pwr22If it's already spreading everywhere I guess closing off cities isn't really gonna help?04:31
LjLdo elaborate04:31
LjLis this American exceptionalism at work or is there a less hideous explanation to your statement04:32
MikeJoelwell for 1 - US health system is way ahead (an opinion) of china, iran, and most of the others. 2) US has a lot more "room" meaning while the cities are packed we do have a lot of country - meaning people aren't so tight together. 3) summer is about to hit and viruses like corona tend not to spread easily in summer04:33
LjL1) the US health system is a joke in many respects, and Korea and Italy have top-notch healthcare systems according to most official statistics 2) true enough 3) there is absolutely no evidence of that being true of this virus, whereas for instance the MERS coronavirus gets worse in the summer04:34
LjLChina also has plenty of "free space" despite having clusters of huge cities... not unlike the US in your point 2)04:35
MikeJoelLjL: If #1 is a joke then why do people try to get into America for medical proceedures from those "great" health care countries?04:35
LjLin the US, in addition, the most crowded parts of cities are the actual city centers where more vulnerable (poorer, etc) people tend to live, unlike for instance Europe04:36
MikeJoelLjL: Uh? I think the climate is a bit different... 04:36
MikeJoelLjL: how many times have you been to the US?04:36
LjLhow many times have you been to Korea and Italy and China?04:36
LjLyou don't seem to know the difference between "an opinion" that's basically a hunch and something you can actually base an argument on04:38
MikeJoelWhat I said didn't require my personal travel to their countries - the fact is that people in China try to come to the US for medical proceedures. your descriptions of America and its cities seems to be hyped up anti-american news stories :D04:38
LjLso i think i'll go to bed and force myself to get out of this rather embarrassing conversation04:38
LjLwhere the ones who ought to be embarrassed isn't me04:38
LjLMikeJoel, so why did what *i* say require me going to the US?04:38
LjLyou are sounding like the very worst kind of American exceptionalist04:38
LjLshame on you and your stupid arrogance04:38
LjLthe end04:39
MikeJoelLjL: you described US cities which isn't reality04:39
MikeJoelthere are poor areas but what you described does not apply to every city and also not going to be the city center04:39
spybertMikeJoel: If you are wealthy then the best health care is available in the US.  If you are a citizen with the median income level, then it is not so good04:39
MikeJoelLjL: LOL!04:39
MikeJoelLjL: You realize you just lost your own argument04:40
LjLno, really, no04:40
spybertLjL: Don't rgue with Trump supporters, it is hopeless :-)04:40
MikeJoelLOL04:40
LjLyeah, you're right04:40
LjLlet's make this simpler04:40
LjLMikeJoel, are you a Trump supporter?04:40
tinwhiskerswell, that's just embarrassing04:41
MikeJoelArrogance and Ignorance are two symptoms that can be treated - unless the exist at the same time... then there is no treatment.04:41
tinwhiskersindeed04:41
MikeJoelI don't know I would describe myself as a Trump supporter - I would rather see him in office than the options available on the market04:42
tinwhiskersheh04:42
Hail_SatanYeah, I'm going to safely disregard your opinion.04:42
LjLMikeJoel, you may find yourself in better company in a different channel04:42
LjLi was this close to banning you, but then yes, then you would have won04:42
LjLinstead you're just a moron04:42
LjLgoodnight04:42
spybertLjL: He probably doesn't like Trump people saying that Trump didn't do a good job in handling the epidemic04:43
fructoseMikeJoel: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/04:44
MikeJoelSNOPES !! LOL04:44
MikeJoelOh no! I heard all about that - like usual a bunch of unrelated and slanted items strung together to present a biased opinion to be consumed by those in the market for it04:45
Hail_SatanMikeJoel, please, you don't have to do this04:46
Hail_SatanIt seems like we're all adults here.04:46
almostsnopes ???  a couple and their dog and a previous cocaine conviction telling peeps whats true BAWAWAWA04:46
Hail_Satanonly you can prevent the spread of ipv604:46
fructoseTry reading04:46
pwr22MikeJoeland LjL no need for things to get so heated - lets just agree to disagree on this and move on please?04:46
pwr22<Hail_Satan "only you can prevent the spread "> I've been infected for years04:47
MikeJoelpwr22: maybe you should re-examine the conversation.... the "hateful" "trump supporter" didn't call anyone a name or slander anyone... it was the "open minded" "scientific thinking" individuals that did04:48
Hail_Satanyou said "your descriptions of America and its cities seems to be hyped up anti-american news stories :D"04:49
MikeJoelso?04:49
Hail_Satanand claimed that US was the destination for the rest of the world for procedures04:49
MikeJoelhis description was04:49
pwr22Sure but you did engage in a heated argument which is what I'm talking about dropping ๐Ÿ™‚04:49
MikeJoelNo I didn't. I stated the fact that many people in China and many other countries seek to come to the US for medical treatments04:49
LjLnevermind the snide remark "or even Italy (sorry)" that was about as patronising as anything could possibly be... but sure, it isn't a direct insult so it's fine in your mind04:50
pwr22Now you're trying to get into an argument with me - I'm not interested04:50
fructosepwr22: There's no reason to stop pointing out bullshit04:50
MikeJoelhuh? So your saying europeans do not seek to come to the US for fast medical treatment?04:50
Hail_SatanThe top 10 countries most visited by medical tourists for their accredited hospitals, quality and affordable healthcare are:  Thailand, India,    Brazil,     Malaysia,     Turkey,     Mexico,     Costa Rica,    Taiwan,     South Korea,     Singapore04:51
LjLi'm sure some do. i'm sure also some americans do the opposite04:51
fructoseMikeJoel: Stop bullshitting please.04:51
Hail_Satanhttps://wotmed.com/blog-10-best-countries-for-medical-tourism/04:51
pwr22%data uk04:51
Brainstormpwr22: In UK, there are 116 cases, 1 deaths (0.9% of cases), 18 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 04:45:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=UK for time series data.04:51
Brainstormpwr22: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming deaths/cases with โ…” of cases undetected), and less than 5.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries).04:51
tinwhiskersThe US is not a popular destination for medical tourism04:51
pwr22%data us04:51
Brainstormpwr22: In US, there are 233 cases, 13 deaths (5.6% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 04:45:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.04:51
tinwhiskersWhile it's true there is a lot of good, cutting-edge research coming out of the states, the medical system is a shambles.04:52
Hail_Satan"Despite the high price of treatment, between 600,000 and 800,000 foreign patients opted for U.S.-based treatment last year, according to Patients Beyond Borders. "04:52
Hail_SatanThat's not many04:52
MikeJoelThe US only has like what 1000x more people than the UK? And like the same amount of international travel?04:52
tinwhiskers??04:52
Hail_SatanWhy does this feel like jousting at windmills04:52
Hail_Satanis it a chatbot04:52
Hail_SatanRussia, if you're listening04:52
LjL1000x... what even04:52
LjLenough04:53
pwr22Hail_Satan: never heard that turn before ๐Ÿ˜04:53
pwr22MikeJoel: like 6x the people04:53
Hail_SatanI am approving of LjL's moderatin04:53
pwr22Well we've been a bit off topic in this room ๐Ÿคฃ04:54
tinwhiskersHoney, I'm going to be late to bed. Someone on the internet is wrong!04:55
LjLtinwhiskers, same here04:55
LjLriling people up with nonsense is neither fun nor something i want to tolerate04:55
pwr22Yeah feels like one of those04:55
tinwhiskersdude, in your case it's true. go to bed!04:55
pwr22I used to be a lot like that myself back when I was much younger โ˜น๏ธŽ04:56
LjLoh it's only 5am and i could have been sleeping one hour ago at least if 04:56
LjLyou know04:56
LjLkeJoel> Why is it when a leftist can't win an argument they kick you out of a room or mute you? Must be the fascism in them. Have your fun.04:57
LjLif this isn't an indication that i made the right choice i don't know what is04:57
LjLwhen did i even state i was a "leftist", only he knows04:57
LjLmaybe that applies to anyone who doesn't worship the US as the best place on earth04:58
Hail_Satanman, he's really mad online04:58
Hail_SatanI thought he could act like an adult, but no04:58
pwr22It's 4am here, I've already been to sleep and got up again though so I'm good04:58
Hail_SatanI'm catching the /msgs04:58
pwr22He's IMing me04:58
Hail_Satango to BED, LjL!04:58
LjLokay04:59
LjLchances are they don't know they do, but yes04:59
pwr22I can probably do things (at least on the matrix side)05:01
pwr22Not sure if I show as having ops on the IRC side05:02
tinwhiskersI was wondering what happens if someone is quieted on the irc side but not matrix, or do those modes make it through the gateway somehow too?05:02
pwr22Well matrix doesn't have the same concept of voice so I didn't see anything change from my perspective but as they are an IRC user I'm not seeing any of their messages05:05
pwr22I didn't see any kick message either, I did see the user leave and join the room immediately though05:05
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53757) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55477)05:05
pwr22woo05:06
tinwhiskersthey were quieted at this end and I guess they thought leaving and rejoining would help somehow.05:06
pwr22On the matrix side, there are very granular permissions you can set. Every user has a power level and you can set various powers at various levels05:09
pwr22So you have a sort of tiered approach05:09
tinwhiskersok05:10
Hail_SatanAttenuation of replication by a 29 nucleotide deletion in SARS-coronavirus acquired during the early stages of human-to-human transmission: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33487-805:15
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 04:12 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: 6 Marzo โ†’ https://is.gd/lCDWBr05:15
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 53759) ๐Ÿ”ธ Philippines: +2 cases (now 5) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +2 cases (now 98464), +2 recoveries (now 55479)05:20
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test) at 04:18 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Servizio Piazzapulita dentro il reparto di terapia intensiva dell Asst di Cremona โ†’ https://is.gd/P1sZ9P05:31
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ New South Wales, Australia: +1 cases (now 26) ๐Ÿ”ธ South Australia, Australia: +2 cases (now 7) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53760) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55480)05:35
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ British Columbia, Canada: +8 cases (now 21) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53761) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 cases (now 98465), +1 recoveries (now 55481)05:50
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 05:02 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: JHU reports 29 new cases in Switzerland, total 119 confirmed cases โ†’ https://is.gd/HItQSs06:04
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ New South Wales, Australia: +1 cases (now 26)06:05
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 05:07 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Coronavirus e Xenophobia, Un analisi (Articolo in Inglese) โ†’ https://is.gd/670GQ706:20
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53762) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55482)06:20
Hail_SatanMikeJohn / MMJ99 is a chatbot.06:26
Hail_Satan* MikeJoel06:26
pwr22What makes you think that?06:27
Hail_Satanit failed several yes/no's06:33
Hail_Satanit turned into a whiny Karen bot06:34
Hail_Satanhttps://i.redd.it/t3u918d6vkf41.jpg06:34
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53763) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55483)06:35
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 05:27 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Coronavirus : problemi nella capienza del sistema sanitario, rischi di collasso. โ†’ https://is.gd/gM3laS06:36
pwr22Well I'm pretty sure they pass my turing test ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ06:39
twomoonhi tinwhiskers why do u think the medical system in the US is in shambles?06:40
greyman%data turkey06:42
Brainstormgreyman: Sorry, turkey not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.06:42
fructosehttps://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/why-we-should-be-more-concerned-about-the-flu-than-coronavirus/291-d5cfaf75-8cc0-400f-8c62-c0a484be716206:48
fructoseIn case anyone wants to see the virulence of that bullshit06:48
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Canada: +2 cases (now 48) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53764) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +2 cases (now 98467), +1 recoveries (now 55484)06:50
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +3 cases (now 80555) ๐Ÿ”ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1210) ๐Ÿ”ธ Hunan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 952) ๐Ÿ”ธ Shanghai, Mainland China: +3 cases (now 342) ๐Ÿ”ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 429) ๐Ÿ”ธ Xinjiang, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 71) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +3 cases (now 98470)07:05
fructoseThere's hope for Iceland. They've already confirmed more cases than India.07:10
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ US: +1 deaths (now 14) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 deaths (now 3387)07:20
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 06:10 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Invito chi puรฒ aiutare di considerare/continuare a donare sangue solo se si รจ in condizioni sani (Irrelevante se รจ il coronavirus o altre malattie). Il sangue รจ sempre una neccessitร  per molti pazienti che hanno bisogno di terapie trasfusionali. โ†’ https://is.gd/retv3u07:25
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ Mainland China: +16 recoveries (now 53780) ๐Ÿ”ธ Henan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1242) ๐Ÿ”ถ Shandong, Mainland China: +15 recoveries (now 617) ๐Ÿ”ธ Zhejiang, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1142) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +16 recoveries (now 55500)08:20
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 07:28 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: In Francia: * Il numero totale dei casi sale a 423 โ†’ https://is.gd/dAeyae08:30
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 53782) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +2 recoveries (now 55502)08:35
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 92) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 cases (now 98471)08:51
BubuIIC1%data Germany08:58
BrainstormBubuIIC1: In Germany, there are 545 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 17 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 08:35:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data.08:58
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53783) ๐Ÿ”ธ Hunan, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 954) ๐Ÿ”ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 430) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +3 cases (now 95) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +3 cases (now 98474), +1 recoveries (now 55503)09:06
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 08:20 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Gli sintomi del coronavirus : Il primo paziente inglese racconta la sua esperienza con COVID-19 โ†’ https://is.gd/yAjhOz09:35
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Croatia: +1 cases (now 11) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53784) ๐Ÿ”ถ South Korea: +309 cases (now 6593) ๐Ÿ”ธ Switzerland: +1 cases (now 121) ๐Ÿ”ธ Thailand: +1 cases (now 48) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +312 cases (now 98786), +1 recoveries (now 55504)09:36
Albright%title https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3065187/coronavirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives09:46
BrainstormAlbright: Couldn't load page from www.scmp.com (416: Requested Range Not Satisfiable).09:46
Albright"Coronavirus: South Koreaโ€™s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate"09:46
AlbrightSCMP is based in Hong Kong and therefore slightly more trustworthy than mainland China news sources.09:46
AlbrightSo the RoK is reporting a fatality rate of only 0.65%.09:50
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 96) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 cases (now 98787)09:51
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 08:36 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Le borse in forte ribasso per le incertezze economiche causate dal COVID-19 โ†’ https://is.gd/x2Lqsv09:51
AlbrightI think RoK has a demographically younger population than Japan and China, which might be skewing the numbers. Certainly one of the reasons the death rate is proportionally high in the US was the breakout at a senior care home.09:51
philalso testing is incredibly prevalent 10:05
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 cases (now 80556), +1 recoveries (now 53785) ๐Ÿ”ธ South Korea: +2 deaths (now 42) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +1 cases (now 98788), +2 deaths (now 3389), +1 recoveries (now 55505)10:06
animistic1%data Finland10:10
Brainstormanimistic1: In Finland, there are 12 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of Thu Mar  5 14:53:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data.10:10
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Germany: +10 cases (now 555) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +2 cases (now 80558) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +12 cases (now 98800)10:21
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Finland: +3 cases (now 15) ๐Ÿ”ธ India: +1 cases (now 31) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +1 cases (now 80559), +2 recoveries (now 53787) ๐Ÿ”ธ Pakistan: +1 cases (now 6) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +6 cases (now 98806), +2 recoveries (now 55507)10:36
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test) at 08:47 UTC: Advice for UK university students: Closures, exams, etc.: I'm a lecturer/researcher at a large UK university. I've noticed that a lot of uni students have questions and concerns about university closures, exams, etc. Also, I've been shocked by how badly some universities have communicated with their staff and [... want %more?] โ†’ https://is.gd/I27Lz510:39
mefistofeles%more10:42
Brainstormmefistofeles, [...] students. Here, I'll share what I know from the staff side of things (though things at your uni may differ) - I don't think hiding information from students is helpful. โ†’ Internal Server Error10:42
mefistofeleslol10:42
mefistofelesyeah, it makes sense using Korea's data to estimate a better death rate, tbh10:44
mefistofelesand this is expected, to be lower than previously reported, since we all knew there were many undiagnosed cases... going back to that discussion we had a couple of days before10:44
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ Mainland China: +29 recoveries (now 53816) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +1 deaths (now 1) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +1 deaths (now 3390), +29 recoveries (now 55536)10:51
Albrightmefistofeles: Are you saying more diagnoses mean that there will be more "non-deaths" since less severe cases with recovery might be going undiagnosed in China or other countries? I guess that makes sense.10:52
mefistofelesAlbright: yes10:53
mefistofelesthat's also basically why the death rate is expected to be lower once more is known, from the WHO10:53
mefistofelesit will have peaks when it enters new regions/countries, of course10:55
mefistofelesbut taking a single new region/country data is wrong10:55
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Iraq: +4 cases (now 40) ๐Ÿ”ถ Mainland China: +111 recoveries (now 53927) ๐Ÿ”ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +1 cases (now 1352) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +4 cases (now 100) ๐Ÿ”ธ Switzerland: +1 cases (now 122) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +9 cases (now 98815), +111 recoveries (now 55647)11:06
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +4 cases (now 47) ๐Ÿ”ถ Japan: +17 cases (now 381) ๐Ÿ”ธ Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 53929) ๐Ÿ”ธ Netherlands: +1 deaths (now 1) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 101), +1 recoveries (now 1) ๐Ÿ”ถ Spain: +47 cases (now 329) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +69 cases (now 98884), +3 recoveries (now 55650)11:21
mefistofelesLjL: do we really need the bot to update that frequently? or what's the idea behind that?11:22
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Indonesia: +2 cases (now 4) ๐Ÿ”ธ Macau, Macau: +1 recoveries (now 10) ๐Ÿ”ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 280) ๐Ÿ”ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 1212) ๐Ÿ”ธ Henan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1243) ๐Ÿ”ธ Jiangsu, Mainland China: +6 recoveries (now 594) ๐Ÿ”ธ Jilin, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 90) ๐Ÿ”ธ Shaanxi, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 226) ๐Ÿ”ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +5 recoverie11:36
mefistofeles%data Chile11:40
Brainstormmefistofeles: In Chile, there are 4 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Thu Mar  5 19:13:04 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Chile for time series data.11:40
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Estonia: +5 cases (now 10) ๐Ÿ”ธ Romania: +1 cases (now 7), +2 recoveries (now 3) ๐Ÿ”ธ Switzerland: +10 cases (now 132) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +16 cases (now 98909), +2 recoveries (now 55653)11:51
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ Germany: +22 cases (now 577) ๐Ÿ”ธ Iceland: +2 cases (now 37) ๐Ÿ”ถ Iran: +1234 cases (now 4747), +16 deaths (now 124) ๐Ÿ”ธ Chongqing, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 513) ๐Ÿ”ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 282) ๐Ÿ”ธ Heilongjiang, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 381) ๐Ÿ”ถ Hubei, Mainland China: +22 recoveries (now 41988) ๐Ÿ”ธ Hunan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 955) ๐Ÿ”ธ Shandong, Mainland China: +1 12:06
Albright%title https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/05/apple-cracking-down-coronavirus-apps/12:12
BrainstormAlbright: From www.macrumors.com: Apple Rejecting Coronavirus Apps Not From Health or Government Organizations - MacRumors12:12
mefistofelesAlbright: makes sense, right?12:21
Albrightmefistofeles: I have a problem with Apple deciding what news sources I should trust. But the web browser still works. For now.12:21
mefistofelesAlbright: well, yes, but that's another issue. I agree, though12:28
fructosehttps://twitter.com/sanchak74/status/123342541771904204812:30
mefistofelesfructose: hmm, interesting12:31
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 11:29 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Primo caso nel Vaticano โ†’ https://is.gd/mvObAH12:33
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ Belgium: +59 cases (now 109) ๐Ÿ”ธ Hong Kong, Hong Kong: +1 cases (now 106) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +4 cases (now 105) ๐Ÿ”ถ Spain: +16 cases (now 345), +2 deaths (now 5) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +80 cases (now 100275), +2 deaths (now 3408)12:36
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ Iran: +174 recoveries (now 913) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +174 recoveries (now 55827)12:51
RougeRRim beginning to lose patience with my mother/father13:10
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ Egypt: +12 cases (now 15) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 106) ๐Ÿ”ธ Romania: +1 cases (now 8), +2 recoveries (now 5) ๐Ÿ”ถ Spain: +15 cases (now 360) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +29 cases (now 100304), +2 recoveries (now 55829)13:21
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test) at 12:19 UTC: CoronavirusGLOBAL: It's possible to donate computing power to COVID19 research by allowing researchers to use your computer to run protein folding simulations. โ†’ https://is.gd/ivs8O513:22
mefistofeles%data india13:35
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ Greece: +14 cases (now 45) ๐Ÿ”ธ Switzerland: +6 cases (now 138) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +20 cases (now 100324)13:35
Brainstormmefistofeles: In India, there are 31 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 3 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 13:24:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data.13:35
mefistofelesgoing back to https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/03/science.abb2762.full13:42
mefistofelesit's amazing (almost unbelievable) they could have the protein structure with CryoEM that fast!!13:42
python476hoi back13:42
python476100k figure reached on plague.com JHU13:42
mefistofelespython476: yeah, pretty much that's the case, nothing really special about it, fwiw13:43
python476mefistofeles: hey, leave my primate cerebellum be will ya13:44
python476mefistofeles: what do you think about the management of this outbreak ?13:48
python476to me, even with the big amount of fog, I feel it's been nicely coordinated and monitored13:48
python476not perfect but nothing is13:48
mefistofelespython476: yeah, I think a good job has been done overall13:49
chuckd[m]It depends on the country13:49
python476chuckd[m]: meaning iran and the likes ?13:49
mefistofelesI mean, not even in China is that significant, compared to the total amount of population there,  which s truly amazing13:49
python476if stats are to be believed they tamed the beast quite rapidly13:49
chuckd[m]In the US they're not taking many tests and therefore the confirmed cases are way lower than in reality13:50
python476chuckd[m]: yeah good point, US could have picked a better strategy13:50
mefistofelesI think China will probably become the one with better containment/mitigation in the long run, per capita13:50
python476hopefully the US gov will get a little Iranian gov future ...13:50
chuckd[m]<mefistofeles "I think China will probably beco"> Totally agree13:50
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Denmark: +3 cases (now 23) ๐Ÿ”ธ Henan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1244) ๐Ÿ”ถ Singapore: +13 cases (now 130) ๐Ÿ”ธ Taiwan, Taiwan: +1 cases (now 45) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +19 cases (now 100343)13:51
mefistofelesyeah, the thing is that US cannot afford as much testing as Korea can, or similar13:51
mefistofelessame for Italy and Iran even more13:51
mefistofelesKorea is becoming the nicest lab region to get better stats, actually13:52
mefistofelesthere was some news about this already13:52
python476US doesn't manufacture tests ?13:52
python476I'm surprised. Naively I'd think they're loaded with cash and can buy out a pharma company stock in 48H13:53
mefistofelesUS heath care system is pretty much fucked up, and Trump is blaming it on Obama's administration (shocking!!)13:54
mefistofeleshehe13:54
mefistofeleshealth*13:54
mefistofeleshttps://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/04/get-real this one kinda sums it up pretty well for the US situation13:55
python476I'm fantasizing of a group of rogue rebels infecting themselves with covid and getting hired as security officers to infect the POTUS13:56
mefistofeleslol13:57
python476ncovfefe13:57
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Brazil: +1 cases (now 9) ๐Ÿ”ธ Beijing, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 299) ๐Ÿ”ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 284) ๐Ÿ”ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +4 recoveries (now 1216) ๐Ÿ”ธ Heilongjiang, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 383) ๐Ÿ”ธ Ningxia, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 71) ๐Ÿ”ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +7 recoveries (now 442) ๐Ÿ”ธ San Marino: +2 cases (now 23) ๐Ÿ”ธ King County, WA, US: +2 deaths (now 12)14:07
mefistofeles%data United States of America14:13
Brainstormmefistofeles: Sorry, United States of America not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.14:13
mefistofeles%data USA14:13
Brainstormmefistofeles: Sorry, USA not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.14:13
mefistofeles%data US14:13
mefistofeles%data US14:13
Brainstormmefistofeles: In US, there are 233 cases, 14 deaths (6.0% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 14:02:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.14:13
mefistofeleswoah, many deaths 14:13
mefistofelesinteresting14:13
chuckd[m]Careful with the recoveries, some of them relapse14:16
mefistofeleschuckd[m]: link?14:20
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Toronto, ON, Canada: +2 cases (now 23) ๐Ÿ”ธ Japan: +3 recoveries (now 46) ๐Ÿ”ถ Netherlands: +46 cases (now 128) ๐Ÿ”ถ Spain: +22 cases (now 382) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +68 cases (now 100416), +3 recoveries (now 55832)14:22
mefistofeles%data Germany14:23
Brainstormmefistofeles: In Germany, there are 577 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 17 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 14:17:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data.14:23
mefistofeles%data Italy14:23
Brainstormmefistofeles: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar  5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.14:23
mefistofeles%data Spain14:23
Brainstormmefistofeles: In Spain, there are 382 cases, 5 deaths (1.3% of cases), 3 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 14:17:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data.14:23
mefistofelesinteresting14:23
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 13:12 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Giochi Olimpici 2020 : Le opzioni (Articolo in Inglese) โ†’ https://is.gd/GwCRpQ14:24
LjLmefistofeles, i do want to learn about new cases in Italy (ideally by region, but global data are what they are and clearly we aren't the US...) as soon as possible, and also people call %data very often when the channel is active so it may actually be less spammy if it just posts updates whenever there are some... but i guess i can make it poll less often if it bothers everyone so much14:34
LjLat least now it looks like the reddit RSS is working, only took me about two weeks to figure out what was wrong (and it was trivially just Reddit rejecting my polls because i was doing it too often, but actually looking at the http response evidently was too sophisticated for me)14:35
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Switzerland: +4 cases (now 142) ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +4 cases (now 100420)14:37
LjLi think i could also add a feature to tell people in PM when there are new cases in their area (or whatever areas they select, anyway)14:38
LjLif anyone would like that, then state it14:38
mefistofelesthat would be better, indeed14:39
mefistofelesor just a link to the feed less frequently, but that feed updated as frequent as it can14:39
mefistofeleswell, imho14:40
mefistofelesLjL: also, where is the bot getting the new reported stats from?14:40
LjLthe updates don't seem so awfully frequent to me though, looking at the backscroll... when there's actually chat, they should be pretty unobtrusive. and if there is no chat they may as well be posted. i feel the same as i felt about the Big Bot Argument in ##science, basically14:40
LjLmefistofeles, tinwhiskers's data as usual, he's using a good job of merging sources to get the most up to date stuff14:41
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 13:25 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Coronavirus e le problematica delle Crociere : una serie di incidenti di quarantena delle navi, dal Diamond Princess in Giappone alla Grand Princess ed ora la Costa Fortuna in Phuket. Ecco degli articoli riguardo : โ†’ https://is.gd/cGjKnB14:41
mefistofelesLjL: any ideas where is tinwhiskers getting them from?14:41
mefistofelestinwhiskers: โ†‘14:41
LjLmefistofeles, if anything, i am more bothered by the bot's updates from The Guardian (the other bot) since mine would post periodically while this one just seems to post like five articles at a time, very verbosely14:41
LjLbut i can change that now that Brainstorm *seems* to have proper RSS support again14:42
LjLalso i could remove Guardian entirely since they mostly seem to be about economy and stuff like that, even though it's the COVID feed :\14:42
mefistofelesit varies, but it does have a significant amount of those14:43
LjLmefistofeles, tinwhiskers is mainly getting them from the JHU (the best-known map), but he augments them from other sources, but i don't know what those are14:43
mefistofelesI see14:43
LjLmefistofeles, would it help if i just removed the orange bullet points, is that a source of annoyance? also, would it be better if i made them NOTICEs coming from Matrix instead of PRIVMSGs? or is it just their existence regardless of details14:44
mefistofelesactually, I like the bullet points, makes it readable14:45
LjLthe bullet points are meant to show *big* increases in cases at a glance. gives a big bullet if >1014:45
LjLokay14:45
mefistofelesI just thought getting any change from any region/country in separate lines/objects just doesn't help much14:45
LjLmefistofeles, well i'll make the poll frequency a bit lower for now14:45
mefistofelesok sure, thanks14:45
LjLi think i have an idea14:47
mefistofelesthe thing is that I fear that adding all those new cases the bot puts here won't add up to the cases in the following report from JHU14:48
mefistofelesI mean, they would probably add up to a larger value (redundancy)14:49
mefistofelesbut if the data is well curated, which tinwhiskers is probably doing fine, then that's not a problem14:49
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ธ Bahrain: +1 cases (now 56) ๐Ÿ”ธ Dominican Republic: +1 cases (now 2) ๐Ÿ”ถ France: +154 cases (now 577), +2 deaths (now 9) ๐Ÿ”ธ Germany: +1 cases (now 578) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 108) ๐Ÿ”ธ Russia: +9 cases (now 13) ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +168 cases (now 100588), +2 deaths (now 3410)14:52
LjLout TV just said a Chinese study shows children are indeed much less affected by the virus, but they do get it at the same rate as everyone else, it's just much milder... hence they are good spreaders14:53
LjLmefistofeles, well i'm relying on tinwhiskers to do the data thing since he's been ahead of me for a while with that, and his site is one of the most valuable among many COVID trackers i know14:54
LjLthe bot used to use JHU data directly, but JHU only update the CSV data on a daily basis, which is not great14:54
mefistofelesLjL: what's his site?14:54
LjLmefistofeles, https://offloop.net/covid19/14:54
mefistofeleswell, depends, I guess hourly or similar have much more noise/error14:55
mefistofelesah ok14:55
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test) at 13:44 UTC: CoronavirusGLOBAL: Timeline and Spread of COVID-19 โ†’ https://is.gd/UO6eMU14:57
mefistofelesthey will probably cancel my events here :( that's going to be sad15:01
LjLmefistofeles, what events?15:04
LjLmefistofeles, it will probably not work as first as my code never does... but i've changed it so that only the big-bullet updates (i.e. +>10 increases) get posted as soon as the bot gets them. the small-bullet updates will be added to the end of the *next* big-bullet report. that should make them less frequent, while still reporting big changes immediately...15:05
mefistofelesLjL: some academics events I was planning to go to15:06
mefistofelesLjL: yeah, that should be better, thanks15:06
Timvde%cases Belgium15:11
BrainstormTimvde: In Belgium, there are 109 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 13:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Belgium for time series data.15:11
LjLTimvde, Belgians never die... they're just reborn into Walloons or Fleming depending on how much they sinned during life15:12
Timvde%cases Netherlands15:13
BrainstormTimvde: In Netherlands, there are 128 cases, 1 deaths (0.8% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 14:23:06 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data.15:13
mefistofelesxD15:13
TimvdeWeaklings.15:13
Timvde:P15:13
Timvde(Sorry, I guess I shouldn't joke about that)15:13
mefistofeleswas it a joke?15:14
mefistofeles%data brazil15:14
Brainstormmefistofeles: In Brazil, there are 9 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 15:02:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil for time series data.15:14
Albright%data japan15:35
BrainstormUnboundLocalError: local variable 'backlog' referenced before assignment (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 83, in data)15:35
AlbrightLjL: ^^^15:35
mefistofeles oops15:36
LjLoh15:36
LjLwell, yeah, i sort of expected issues15:36
LjLlet's see15:36
LjLoh right, i forgot in python i need to declare globals inside each function15:37
mefistofelesLjL: is the bot's source code publicly available?15:43
LjLmefistofeles, in a way15:44
LjL%source covid15:44
BrainstormLjL, source code for module 'covid' can be found at https://paste.ee/p/GATjh 15:44
LjLthat command's currently restricted to me though15:44
LjLalso15:45
LjL%cases italy15:45
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar  5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.15:45
LjLyay no error, maybe it's actually working15:45
Albright%data japan15:56
BrainstormAttributeError: 'list' object has no attribute 'backlog' (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 81, in data)15:56
Albright%cases japan15:57
BrainstormAttributeError: 'list' object has no attribute 'backlog' (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 81, in data)15:57
AlbrightLjL: ^^^15:57
AlbrightMaybe it just doesn't like me in particular?15:57
LjLwell that's what i get for using the same name for a function as for a local variable15:58
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 14:51 UTC: /u/lessico_: Coronavirus: le misure per fermare l'epidemia funzionano? Cosa dice la scienza โ†’ https://is.gd/h2m9BT15:58
LjL%cases japan15:59
BrainstormLjL: In Japan, there are 381 cases, 6 deaths (1.6% of cases), 46 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 15:46:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan for time series data.15:59
LjLhttps://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/two-british-airways-baggage-handlers-1787682715:59
Albright%title16:00
BrainstormAlbright: From www.birminghammail.co.uk: Two British Airways baggage handlers test positive for coronavirus - Birmingham Live16:00
LjLthis is sort of a potential issue given the virus can stay on surfaces for possibly a long time16:00
ubLIXsome quite detailed analyses (pre-print) of sample data in Shenzhen: "Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts" - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1 (abstract) and direct link for full paper pdf: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf16:48
mefistofelesinteresting17:01
mefistofelesthanks for sharing ubLIX 17:01
ubLIXyw. i'm still reading it but it does have some interesting details17:11
mefistofelesubLIX: feel free to share, not sure I'd have the time to read it :/17:12
ubLIXmefistofeles: it paints a nuanced picture. I'll finish reading it before attempting to post representative excerpts.17:18
mefistofelesubLIX: sure, thanks.17:29
tinwhiskersmefistofeles: the data comes from the John Hopkins data on github and that is updated from the John Hopkins arcgis dashboard, worldometers and covid19info.live for any newer figures. They all appear to use the same sources because they generally agree with each other except with timing differences.17:30
tinwhiskersi.e. you don't see one publish numbers that are later wrong17:31
mefistofelestinwhiskers: ah thanks17:31
mefistofeles%data argentina17:32
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ World: +30 cases (now 100762), +8 recoveries (now 55838), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iraq: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Pakistan: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ 17:32
Brainstormmefistofeles: In Argentina, there are 2 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 02:29:39 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Argentina for time series data.17:32
mefistofelesLjL: so, it's working better now, imho. But it's repeating countries :)17:33
tinwhiskers%data Italy17:46
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ World: +50 cases (now 100812), ๐Ÿ”ถ Japan: +39 cases (now 420), ๐Ÿ”ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ Poland: +4 cases (now 5), ๐Ÿ”ธ US: +1 cases (now 239), ๐Ÿ”ถ Japan: +39 cases (now 420), ๐Ÿ”ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ Poland: +4 cases (now 5), ๐Ÿ”ธ New York City, NY, US: +1 cases (now 5), ๐Ÿ”ถ Japan: +39 cases (now 420),17:46
Brainstormtinwhiskers: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar  5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.17:46
mefistofelesthey surely have more cases than reported, something similar to what's happening in the US17:48
tinwhiskersYeah. This is only confirmed cases.17:49
tinwhiskersNot testing is the best way to not get confirmed cases. *cough* China *cough*17:49
mefistofeleshaha17:49
mefistofelesactually China had to invent new ways of testing, tbh17:50
mefistofeless/invent/try17:50
Brainstormmefistofeles meant to say: actually China had to try new ways of testing, tbh17:50
tinwhiskersYes, they've done some really good stuff but their numbers look wonky to me17:50
mefistofelesI think they look pretty reasonable, at least the behaviour17:51
mefistofelesnot sure about the magnitude, though17:51
tinwhiskersI think the behaviour looks suspect17:52
mefistofelestinwhiskers: why?17:53
tinwhiskersThey have done an amazing job if quarantining in hubei by basically locking people in their houses, but they don't do that in other provides. However if you look at all the provincial time series there is none of the minor (or major) outbreaks occurring despite some very minor increases indicating the presence. They look too perfect. 17:55
tinwhiskersThey look like if you said "model what our data should look like if things went perfectly, then add a little noise and report those numbers".17:55
mefistofeleswell, I don't know, this seems very reasonable for me, but I guess we'll never know for sure :P17:56
tinwhiskersThey just look implausibly good17:57
mefistofelestinwhiskers: mind sharing what exactly of them look "too good"? I'm honestly interested17:57
mefistofelesI have to run, but I keep my client connected, so hilight me if possible 17:57
mefistofelestalk to you later17:57
tinwhiskersOk17:58
tinwhiskersIf you plot all the provincial time-series I think you'll see what I mean.17:58
tinwhiskersi.e. go to http://offloop.net/covid19/, click "clear all", right-click on "Mainland China" to select all the regions then deselect "Mainland China" and Hubei province.18:01
philList N: Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2 | Pesticide Registration | US EPA (https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2)18:07
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test) at 16:36 UTC: CoronavirusGLOBAL: Hospitals overcapacity amidst Iranโ€™s novel coronavirus crisis โ†’ https://is.gd/QgB7d518:13
tinwhiskersmefistofeles: those infection trajectories (as described above) tell a story where either the virus has basically infected everyone it can or is totally under control due to quarantine or something like a vaccine. The virus spread very quickly to all provinces but then just stopped spreading and petered out despite no quarantine measures.18:19
tinwhiskersIt's incredibly surprising to me that there were no community outbreaks where you see periods of exponential growth like we do almost everywhere else.18:21
tinwhiskersThere was one correction but that was a single day, and nothing like you would expect from a minor outbreak. No outbreaks over all of China even though there are many places the virus could move into and no strict measures to prevent that... Nah.18:22
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 17:22 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Aggiornamento numero di casi โ†’ https://is.gd/v884ZB18:29
tinwhiskersAll those infection curves just simultaneously topping out around feb 15 looks incredibly artificial to me.18:34
tinwhiskersOf course I don't know they are faked for sure by my spidey senses are tingling and I'm very skeptical.18:37
izdoesn't have to be fake, could just be other factors18:37
izlike they ran out of test kits or something18:37
tinwhiskersYeah, like no testing18:37
izyeah18:37
tinwhiskersYeah, that's what originally got me on to the topic18:37
izah, word.. just catching up on scrollback in reverse order now18:38
tinwhiskers[05:49:48] <b39775tinwhiskers> Not testing is the best way to not get confirmed cases. *cough* China *cough*18:38
izthe usa too18:38
tinwhiskersTrue18:38
contingomaybe you could do some Benford's Law testing stuff on suspect figures18:41
contingoidk18:41
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 17:43 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 2 new cases in Bosnia, total confirmed 3 โ†’ https://is.gd/66d9uV18:45
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 17:58 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Currently, outside of China, there are 18,300 active cases, along with 2,135 recovered cases and 416 deaths, for a total case number of 20,851. The recovery rate is 10% and the Case Fatality Rate is almost exactly 2 percent. โ†’ https://is.gd/KyK5Fq19:01
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 18:09 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 11 new cases in New York, state total 33 and national total confirmed cases 248 โ†’ https://is.gd/v5MVxR19:17
Specnot testing is a great strategy19:27
Spechas WHO announced  pandemic yet or are they waiting until the sky starts falling19:27
lapsangI don't think this virus warrants a pandemic claim19:30
Specoh19:30
contingoSpec it's not clear they ever would... Something about declaring a pandemic formally meaning automatically triggering protocols designed to deal with a flu pandemic not a SARS type pandemic or something19:31
contingohttps://www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/19:31
lapsangyeah this isn't something with a high mortality rate19:32
lapsangAnd at this point, everyone assumes that everyone will catch it, eventually19:33
lapsangsort of takes all the magic and mystery out of the thing19:33
Speccontingo: i see, makes sense19:35
Speclapsang: ;(19:35
Specis it reasonable to practice isolation19:35
lapsangpersonally I don't think so19:37
lapsangeveryone's going to catch this eventually.19:37
lapsangthe isolation is in the hopes that someone will develop a vaccine before everyone comes out again.  That isn't happening19:37
Specunless it dies off in 8 months for inexplicable reasons?19:38
lapsangit could die off, but it would still be "out there"19:38
Speclapsang: i thought isolation was in the hopes of defraying the burden on healthcare system19:38
lapsanghm, maybe so19:38
contingoyes Spec, self-quarantine is in the general spirit of helping to slow community spread, along with taking precautions generally, so that healthcare and particularly critical care services are not completely overwhelmed all at once19:38
contingobut it depends on what degree of isolation you mean by isolation19:39
Speci mean, i stopped going to work, we don't visit my parents (old)19:39
lapsangI wonder how you "scale out" of isolation tho19:39
Spec(i work remotely)19:39
Specwe have supplies for some time, but like, my wife just went to the store19:39
lapsangIf that's the notion (slow the rate of disease spread), then they'd have to selectively de-quarantine parts of China19:39
Specso we're not in full quarantine mode or anything, but we've limited our interactions with outside world severely19:40
Specexcept my kid goes to school <319:40
contingohah19:40
contingomaybe outsource parenting for awhile19:40
Spechahaha19:40
Speccontingo: my wife and i have been sick for 7-8 days19:40
contingowhat with?19:41
Specno more fevers, but my wife has been tired/exhausted so she's still recovering19:41
Specdon't know, flu like symptoms19:41
contingome too19:41
Speci'm not sleepy tho19:41
Specmy wife had 103f19:41
Speci had 100.3f max :P19:41
Specmy son was vomiting when he was sick a week prior19:41
Speci have...slight congestion/post nasal drip, and wet coughs, no shortness of breathing, was sneezing a ton but that's stopped19:42
lapsangoh you've already had it maybe19:42
Speclapsang: it's not confirmed in my area, but i wouldn't be surprised...i'd put it at 50/5019:42
Specconsidering my area19:42
lapsangYou're in the US, right?19:42
twomoonsspec are you in italy?19:42
Specno19:42
Spec"not confirmed in my area"19:42
Speci live in a heavily korean area near DC19:43
lapsanghighly likely you could have caught it, then.19:43
Speclapsang: i believe 50/50, sure19:43
Specsymptoms don't quite line up19:43
lapsangApparently one of the vectors in Korea is that hospitals there let people check themselve out19:43
Specno sore throats, no dry coughs19:43
lapsangtemporarily19:43
Speccould just be normal flu, too19:43
lapsangso people with covid-19 would, in a hospital gown with IV caddy still hooked up to them, go down the street to church service19:44
Specthe thing that makes me wonder is - we all had three different sets of symptoms, really.19:44
Specmy wife and son way more similar than me19:44
lapsangdifferent immune profiles would explain that19:44
Specyeah, and that's something seen with covid19:44
Specso if we did have it and we're on day 10, what should we expect? it seems like we both are in mild/recovery phase and won't need any services?19:45
lapsang50% of mild cases had dyspnea, but something like 98% of ICU patients had it.19:45
Specwtf is that19:45
lapsangshortness of breath19:45
Specoh19:45
Specwe all never had that19:45
Specnice19:45
lapsangyour lungs are infected, so your red blood cells don't get enough oxygen19:45
lapsangthere's a secondary infection that happens too, bacterial19:45
lapsangI was once very angry that these ppl were given antibiotics, but now I know why19:46
Specso you think we're pretty much a-ok?19:46
contingoI have no fever, no cough, but bad body aches, malaise and sleepiness, and short episodes of intense sneezing, for 10 days19:46
Speccontingo: my wife had bad body aches, malaise and sleepiness, no intense sneezing.19:46
lapsangI am not a doctor19:46
contingoslight shortness of breath if I try to do exerting things that are usually trivial19:46
Speccontingo: her legs hurt and were sore, and her feet, until i put heat pad on them -- after that, permanently ok19:46
lapsangI entertain conspiracy theories which seem probable to me.  One is that covid19 has already traversed the globe19:47
lapsangI got raging ill mid Jan-early Feb19:47
Speclapsang: yeah, i said that 2 weeks ago for my area19:47
lapsangw/pretty much covid19 symptoms19:47
Speclapsang: just the sheer number of flights into DC and washington19:47
Speclapsang: too bad testing isn't super widespread and accessible19:47
lapsangSpec, in the US, we're not testing anyone unless they are in hospital ICU19:47
contingowell it clearly has even in terms of officially confirmed cases, not just conspiracy theories19:47
Specif i could confirm it, i would quarantine for a month19:47
lapsangnobody coming back from Lombardy on flights to JFK gets tested, for instance.19:47
Spec3 week recovery or so and 9 days until it dies on surfaces/etc19:48
Specyeah, jfk is 4 hours away from me or so19:48
lapsangYou're in DC.  There's a parade of internationals thru there.19:48
Spectrue story19:48
lapsangconstantly19:48
Speclapsang: not a single confirmed case19:48
Specas of like two days ago, we had the capability to test 25 people a day19:48
Spec(LOOOL)19:48
lapsangwe only just started testing.19:48
lapsangsomething like six days ago, only 500 Americans total had been tested19:48
python476lapsang: what other theories 19:48
Specso bad19:48
lapsangand CDC takes 3-5 days to give test results19:48
Specso very bad19:49
contingoif I don't get tested I won't break the quantum superposition of this being or not being corona19:49
Specyeah19:49
lapsangpython476 - ?  just that I probably had it 5 weeks ago, and so did my friends... And since we are rural east coast, it's highly likely this spread in many more areas before anyone really got tested19:50
Speci mean it could just be normal flu *shrug819:50
Specwhich is another reason i'm isolating myself for a bit19:50
Speci wouldn't want multiple complications19:50
Speclapsang: where ya at?19:50
lapsangSpec, in your experience, does the flu take 2 weeks to heal?19:50
python476lapsang: just asking, you said "one .. " as if you had more theories to tell us19:50
lapsangNC/VA state line19:50
Speclapsang: yeah, last time i had flu i was REALLY FUCKING FLOORED, way more than i have been with my curent ailment19:50
lapsangpython476 no, others are off topic 19:50
Spechad to go to hospital for IV, couldn't keep fluids19:51
lapsangoh wow19:51
Specthis was many years ago, flu fucked me up19:51
Specmaybe 10-1519:51
Speclapsang: ah cool, a neighbourish :)19:51
contingothe full on flus I've had have been completely debilitating, for the main phase of it I wouldn't be sitting up chatting on here, I'd be rolling around in a delirium or throwing up19:51
lapsangLast time I had one of those was the mid 1990s... since then, I usually just get 3 day sick19:52
contingowhat I have now is annoying, it just won't clear up19:52
contingoyeah, I think the last bad flu I had was 200919:53
tinwhiskers[07:47:04] <17b339lapsang> I entertain conspiracy theories which seem probable to me.  One is that covid19 has already traversed the globe19:53
tinwhiskers^ this is silly nonsense19:53
SpecYELLOW19:53
contingolol19:54
python476contingo: do you have frail health or a particular condition ?19:54
Spectinwhiskers: i think it's unlikely too, since we'd see more deaths earlier19:54
Speclikely just a different bug is also going around having fun19:54
python476some people on HN said they took vitamin supps to restore health and immune system19:54
tinwhiskersYes, the case timing makes that ludicrous19:54
contingopython476 no I have good 10km run times and nice abs19:55
Spectinwhiskers: in my case, i feel like it's 50/50 though19:55
Specwe'll know in ... about 2 weeks19:55
tinwhiskersMaybe19:55
tinwhiskersYeah19:55
contingoand an abundance of energy for life generally19:55
Specwell, the probability will go up at any rate19:55
Specwe won't "know" since i won't be tested19:55
contingojust, not now19:55
lapsangtinwhiskers my friend hosted a group from Beijing in early January.  She, her husband and I got together for drinks and bonghits.  Within about 10 days, all 3 of us were raging ill with new symptoms.  It's not that far fetched.19:56
lapsangFirst cases in China were in December, hence the "19"19:56
python476contingo: good to hear although, PE and strength is not necessarily immune strength19:56
python476where did you get the bad flu you talked about btw ?19:57
tinwhiskersYou do realise that there are other diseases. If it had already spread around the world we wouldn't be seeing sudden localised increases in cases like we are19:57
tinwhiskersThat's utterly ridiculous19:57
tinwhiskersYou got a cold19:57
python476tinwhiskers: do you think there could be silent epidemias going ?19:57
python476or would pharma labs and health orgs catch it ?19:57
lapsang"sudden localised increases in cases" How would you know the difference between pneumonia and covid19 iwthout a test?  LOL19:57
tinwhiskersIf that was happening we wouldn't see such localised areas showing symptoms. It would be more generalised19:58
lapsangbased on what?19:58
tinwhiskerslapsang: pneumonia is just a symptom of covid-19 and other things like bacteria, fungus. It's not a disease19:59
contingoit's quite rare I get ill with anything python476, and I travel widely. I got that '09 flu in Northamptonshire, England. During the swine flu outbreak. But I didn't get tested19:59
lapsangRIGHT!19:59
lapsangPeople die of pneumonia all the time, and without a test, it's assumed it was flu related or old age related19:59
tinwhiskersYou're claiming the virus might be widespread. If that was the case we would see widespread symptoms, not point outbreaks of symptoms19:59
lapsangI think you place way too much faith in stats when the generation of those stats is faulty in and of itself19:59
lapsang~ how would you know the difference without a test ~20:00
Speci think the sudden deaths is an obvious thing20:00
tinwhiskersPeople dying20:00
lapsang~ only 500 Americans total were tested at the start of this week ~20:00
tinwhiskersFfs. Grow a brain20:00
Specthe flu strain killing people would have launched investigation20:00
lapsangThis disease has low mortality, primarily affecting the elderly and immunocompromised20:00
lapsangbrin: grown20:01
Spechaha20:01
lapsangSpec - about 22,000 deaths from the flu this year, I think20:02
LjLis the bot doing okay? i was away from the computer, i think i'm not seeing much of anything from the bot in the backscroll20:02
Speci saw some 20:02
tinwhiskersLjL: did you see the repeated output thing?20:02
SpecRSSBot did the thing20:02
lapsanghttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm20:02
contingosomething about a man saying he was unable to breathe20:02
lapsang20K-52K deaths20:02
LjLtinwhiskers, nope20:03
Spec> The 25-year-old said the disease started with a common cold before progressing to pneumonia, where it got so bad he was waking up at night unable to breathe20:03
Specwhat is the timeline on that20:03
contingowhich he must not have been unable to do for that long20:03
Speci have common cold symptoms now (and for 7 days or so)20:03
contingough20:03
lapsangoh wow it just started dumping snow here... was sunny a moment ago20:03
Speclapsang: oh snaaaap really?20:03
LjLtinwhiskers, hmm i see mostly just reddit posts, then two big +update posts, but they are different20:03
contingoso we all already have it then, I've decided20:03
Speccontingo: :P20:04
tinwhiskerslapsang: yes, but not in clusters like we're seeing. You do realise that places outside the US are actually testing as well, right?20:04
lapsangyeah it might be in your 4cast20:04
Speclapsang: but it's 50f outside? 20:04
tinwhiskersClearly the cases are increasing exponentially in clusters. You would not be seeing that if it was already widespread.20:04
Speci do see snow on the map, exciting20:05
Speclapsang: i agree with tinwhiskers 20:05
lapsangtinwhiskers yes I do20:05
contingoI have recrudescent and gradually worsening symptoms. About this time every day, I feel fine and that I'm over it, but each bedtime feels slightly worse than the previous. For nearly two weeks. I'm going to start a log now20:05
lapsangwhy would that preclude it being widespread?  Where tests aren't conducted, there are no cases.  20:06
contingoThe first London case reported a week or two back was from my neighborhood20:06
lapsangcontingo hope you get better20:06
contingothank you20:06
fructosetinwhiskers: I'd only point out that "widespread" is relative. It is completely plausible there are an order of magnitude more cases than are currently confirmed.20:06
tinwhiskersfructose: yes, that's quite possible, but that's not what lapsang is referring to. 20:07
Speccontingo: i see, so you're at a 60/40, eh.20:07
contingothere has been wide community testing done in e.g. Singapore, South Korea,and the results don't support the view that there is a large unreported infected population or asymptomatic population in those places20:07
tinwhiskerscontingo: exactly20:07
contingo%8ball Do I have The Virus?20:09
Brainstormcontingo, As I see it yes 20:09
contingoOK20:09
lapsanghttps://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-testing-united-states-broken-149074720:09
SpecLjL: is there a travel ban outside of milan yet?20:10
Speccontingo: sounds legit20:10
fructosecontingo: Keep in mind that we do not know the reliability of testing20:10
LjLSpec, there are no travel bans except about leaving the two quarantine areas20:10
lapsanghttps://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/07/tourism-flows-and-death-rates-suggest-covid-19-is-being-under-reported20:10
lapsangSeems that some experts agree with me20:10
fructosee.g. https://sanchakblog.wordpress.com/2020/02/28/data-wisconsin-illumina-nanopore-sequences-merging-wuhan-coronavirus-and-bacteria-16s/20:10
LjLSpec, schengen isn't even closed, i could go to france and probably just be gratuitously harassed by the police at the first french toll booth, as per normal schengen customs20:11
contingoi'm going to start throwing completely unsubstantiated and hopefully not counterproductive herbal supplements at this thing20:11
LjLcustoms as in customs, not as in Customs20:11
tinwhiskerslapsang: being under-reported is not agreeing about it already being widespread around the world20:11
fructosecontingo: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209549642030015720:11
contingooh cool fructose 20:12
contingoI probably have most of those in a cupboard somewhere20:12
LjLcontingo, i think this "it's fully of asymptomatic people" thing is one of many myths that are created out of initially cautious scientific statement, that gets turned by laymen into a perpetuated certainty, even after the scientists have long changed their minds, and had never said to be sure to begin with20:12
LjLand this is a problem overall with the way people are reacting to this virus20:13
LjLfull*20:13
fructoseLjL: There is good evidence that there are many more cases in Washington State than have been confirmed20:13
contingoin terms of a global picture, I think we're more or less seeing its progress in spreading around the world according to the actual reported figures, except yeah there's a small lead time of spread before reporting catches up, and some areas are not reporting accurately20:13
contingobut generally, we can see, there are now cases in every continent, in new countries every day, and some clear megahotspots20:14
LjLfructose, i certainly find it possible that in specific places, testing has not yet been deployed enough to find most of the cases... i just object to the perpetuated idea that there's a HUGE asymptomatic population everywhere20:14
tinwhiskersIn the US a horrible failure to provide testing means that underreporting is far worse there, but that's not the case everywhere20:14
fructoseIt's more than that.20:15
LjLwhat i'm scared of personally is that Italy has an extremely high mortality rate *despite* evidence that we've tested a lot20:15
Spec> Around this time, the CDC said it would start what is known as surveillance testing in potentially at-risk cities of New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, where flu patients would be tested for the new coronavirus in an attempt to spot the bug among those with no known contact with a hotspot or infected individual.20:15
Speclol20:15
SpecDC ain't on that list for some reason20:15
LjLSpec, ain't even a state20:15
lapsangWhy are South Koreans so prone to religious cults?20:15
lapsanghttps://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/04/South-Korea-authorizes-raid-of-Shincheonji-amid-COVID-19-outbreak/5871583330375/20:15
LjLSpec, they can probably quarantine DC without even changing the constitution, unlike everywhere else!20:15
contingoLjL you and lapsang should have a convo about mortality rates and what the words low and high mean20:15
lapsangThey had to kick out a Prime Minister a few years ago for weird ass cult involvement20:16
LjLcontingo, they are somewhat subjective terms, granted... to me it means it's much higher than what was expected/projected weeks ago *of the outside-of-Hubei world* before the Italy hotspot happened20:16
tinwhiskersfructose: yes, there are some people who may not show any symptoms but the current evidence suggests that most asymptomatic people do end up with symptoms. Yes, there are many cases that go unreported. This is far worse in the US than other places. No, the virus is not already widespread around the planet. It is clearly showing patterns of new outbreaks.20:17
LjLtinwhiskers, can you elaborate on what you think went wrong with the bot reports you referred to? i see two suspiciously large reports but i'm not actually sure if there's something wrong with them20:17
tinwhiskers[05:32:32] <@b39775Brainstorm> ๐Ÿ”ถ World: +30 cases (now 100762), +8 recoveries (now 55838), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iraq: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Pakistan: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐Ÿ”ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐Ÿ”ธ 20:17
tinwhiskersAustria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐Ÿ”ธ 20:17
LjLtinwhiskers, oh wait... repeated as in, i see Japan twice in this one for instance...20:18
Speclapsang: US has quite a few cults, too20:18
tinwhiskersCountries are duplicate20:18
tinwhiskersd20:18
LjLthrice20:18
LjLokay i get it :P20:18
LjLbut also why have there been no reports since? have the data not changed for hours?20:18
tinwhiskersHrm20:19
tinwhiskersI'll get out of bed then20:19
LjLsorry :P i'm looking at the bot's logs too and i'm confused because the numbers i see don't really match the numbers it posted20:20
LjLand wow we just passed 100k cases worldwide20:20
contingolol @ TCM category names20:20
contingo100k we did it folks20:22
lapsanglol did we just cross it?20:22
lapsangWHOO!!!!20:22
lapsang4 101,58720:22
LjLit wasn't exactly a happy wow, but i'm glad you're excited20:23
lapsangNice, confirmed cases in Chatham and Wake counties20:23
Speclapsang: party time20:24
LjLtinwhiskers, there was a very obvious thing that was missing in the bot causing it to carry on duplicate entries forever20:24
LjLaside from that one, though, i'm not sure the logic is proper20:24
LjLnext time there is an update, also, it should post it from *both* IRC and Matrix20:24
LjLbear with that, it won't do it forever, i just want to make sure posting from Matrix works20:24
lapsang"As with all currently available tests, itโ€™s not yet clear how long a person needs to be infected before testing positive, or whether someone who's infected could be identified by the test before displaying symptoms." - Stanford Medicine20:26
Speci almost didn't pay my bills :P20:26
Speci had no idea it was already march20:26
lapsang"As of this morning, more than 160 people in the United States have been diagnosed; experts expect the actual number of cases nationwide is much larger. Washington and Northern California are currently most heavily affected, but cases have been diagnosed in several states."20:26
LjLlapsang, that's good to know given i've just talked extensively to a person who's just tested negative BUT who got tested because of getting in contact with a positive patient recently!20:27
contingo%tell RougeRR How is your contact who was trapped in the hotel doing?20:28
Brainstormcontingo, I'll pass RougeRR aka RougeR your message when they are around. 20:28
tinwhiskerslapsang: all these things you're saying are true but not evidence of the virus already being globally widespread.20:30
lapsangRight, because there can be no such evidence20:30
tinwhiskersno, just because they are not evidence of that20:30
lapsangTo have that evidence, you'd have to have been testing large swaths of ill people20:30
lapsangwhich the US isn't doing20:31
tinwhiskerswhich is happening outside the US and shows no such thing20:31
lapsanglike South Korea?20:31
tinwhiskersSeveral places20:31
LjLcontingo, there was also some German here briefly who was in Iran and only had a flight booked for two weeks from now... good luck with that20:31
lapsangGive an example with test numbers, then?20:32
tinwhiskersYou're really pushing fud at this point lapsang20:32
lapsangNo, I'm pretty sure I introduced this as a "conspiracy theory"20:32
lapsangMeanwhile, can you provide #s of negative tests correlated to region to support your conclusion20:32
tinwhiskersmost countries are only just starting to see people showing up with symptoms and they are in clusters. 20:33
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 19:30 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 3 new cases in California, USA. State total 54, national total 252 confirmed cases (with about ten waiting for confirmation) โ†’ https://is.gd/Sn5drT20:33
twomoonscrap, on the front page today where i live. someone came back from italy and didn't self quarantine 20:34
twomoonsworks at a store about 3 miles from my house20:34
lapsanghttps://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-super-spreader20:34
tinwhiskersyes, super-spreaders may exist too. But that STILL doesn't support the notion that the virus is globally widespread20:35
tinwhiskerswe are seeing CLUSTERS of outbreaks. if the virus was already widespread you would not see clusters20:35
tinwhiskersstop spreading FUD20:35
lapsangyou're describing community infection20:35
lapsangthat doesn't mean it hasn't already spread widely20:36
tinwhiskersyes, which is the virus was widespread wouldn't happen in clusters as it would be happening generally20:36
tinwhiskers*if20:36
lapsangclusters are only detected by positive test results20:36
lapsangso where are the negative test results reinforcing this conclusion?20:36
Speci don't think we're going to get anywhere with this line of convo20:37
Specwe can just patiently wait until testing becomes thorough :)20:37
tinwhiskersthey are appearing as unusual clusters of people getting symptoms and dying20:37
Specget it, patient-ly20:37
tinwhiskersregardless of testing or lack thereof20:37
LjLlapsang, i can provide data (and possibly a source, but it might be hard to look at browser history) that in Veneto, the region next to me and third most affected, for some reason they ran many more tests in proportion than here, and out of 7000 tests, they only had 250 positive. here where the worse cluster is, it was 1500 positives out of 9000. so i think veneto shows that even if you look at a lot of people, if there doesn't appear to be a BIG cluster, 20:37
LjLthere isn't a BIG cluster - as opposed to it just being hidden in asymptomatic patients20:37
tinwhiskerscommunity spread is when people in the community get the disease from an unknown source and an outbreak occurs (i.e. a cluster). You don't get community spread if the virus is already widespread because the community already has it! 20:40
contingolapsang, for example for example, in Scotland, 1525 tests have been conducted, 11 postive. South Korea is testing about 10K people per day and increasing capacity. I had stats for Singapore too somewhere20:40
contingominus one instance of "for example"20:40
LjLi would like to encourage everyone who has good stats to save them somewhere and keep in mind i do want to have a good collection of links in the topic! :P20:42
Specwhat's china's testing look  like?20:42
Specwill they be ramped up to provide surplus tests to the world?20:42
tinwhiskershard to say. possibly non-existent20:42
Spectinwhiskers: what?20:42
tinwhiskerssomething looks wrong with the data coming out of china to me. Either they are not testing, not releasing data, or they have a magic solution they are not telling us about.20:43
tinwhiskers(I'm not entirely seriosu but it looks wonky)20:43
lapsanglol tinwhiskers is getting on my FUD train20:44
tinwhiskersheh20:44
lapsangunless YOUR speculations are merely that20:44
lapsangbut MINE are FUD20:44
Spectinwhiskers: now there's the sort of conspiracy theories that'll make you wear a tinfoil hat20:44
Specthe purposeful actions of china :P20:44
tinwhiskersheh20:44
twomoonswhere was the multi-strain theory rebuffed?20:44
Spechas it been?20:44
tinwhiskersI'll walk you through the data and my reasoning if you like20:44
lapsangA bunch of Chinese citizens were complaining at the onset of the outbreak that their deceased loved ones didn't have anything about covid-19 on the death certs, just pneumonia20:44
Spectinwhiskers: pls do20:44
lapsangmy previous post was anecdotal, and probably came from one of those hysteria-filled "angry chinese health worker" vids20:45
yuriwhoI think it's clear that we cannot trust the 'official' chinese data20:45
Speclapsang: lame20:46
Speclapsang: rains begin20:46
tinwhiskerswell, if you go to http://offloop.net/covid19/, click "clear all", then right-click on "Mainland China" to select all the provinces, then deselect "Mainland China" and hubei you'll maybe see what I mean.20:46
Specyuriwho: s/chinese/a few countries/20:46
BrainstormSpec thinks yuriwho meant to say: I think it's clear that we cannot trust the 'official' a few countries data20:46
Specthat wasn't a good substitution at all20:46
contingolapsang, "as of 9am on 6 March 2020, 20,338 people have been tested in the UK, of which 20,175 were confirmed negative and 163 positive"20:46
yuriwhotrue Spec 20:46
lapsangcontingo thanks, that's very useful20:47
yuriwhoI think most authoritarian countries cannot be trusted20:47
lapsangseems to confirm this virus isn't as savage as some initially feared20:47
Spectinwhiskers: you mean because the curves dont' seem right?20:47
Specoh, the deaths chart looks fake20:48
lapsangFrance expecting an epidemic now, closing secondary schools in affected regions20:48
LjLtinwhiskers, "or they have a magic solution they are not telling us about." โ† i've actually thought of this in some of my conspiracy theorizing moments... what if they've figured it out, and now they know the rest of the world will have a really tough time, and they want to be the next clear world leaders by letting that happen20:48
tinwhiskersthey seem too good. Most provinces only had small outbreaks and there were large areas where the virus has not been. They don't have the lockdown quarantine they had in Hubei. There are plenty of places the virus could go and break out, yet not a single case of even a small outbreak has occurred. 20:49
Specso is wuhan gonna be permanently shutdown? are they all just dead?20:49
LjLSpec, they are very shutdown20:49
LjLmostly not dead afaik20:49
Specfood ?20:49
lapsangWuhan is a horror movie right now20:49
LjLSpec, did i show you the Russian guy's video?20:49
LjLSpec, it's a bit long but he does crazy things20:49
tinwhiskersI don't believe the Chinese quarantine can be so perfect that they prevent every single case of even a small outbreak occurring 20:49
LjLand you see crazy China20:49
SpecLjL: no20:50
tinwhiskersand all the curves tapered off at almost exactly the same time20:50
Spectinwhiskers: you think, what, instead? they are hiding it?20:50
tinwhiskersI don't know. It just doesn't look right20:50
Specwell a universal procedural solution would explain that, right?20:50
contingoI have the same reaction tinwhiskers 20:50
Specor the discovery of an effective drug20:50
tinwhiskersit looks exactly like of someone modelled an ideal situation, added a little noise and used those numbers for reporting.20:50
yuriwhosadly, Wuhan is also the center for most pharmaceutical chemistry which much of the world relies upon for chemical intermediates20:50
Specof course I guess if it was a purposeful chinese military action, well. *tinfoilhat*20:51
LjLSpec, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1yXTlvTB08 there are some salient timestamps i could link (since i linked them to before and have them in logs)... but honestly it's decent enough to watch it all20:51
LjLSpec, some of it will be things you do already know, but meh20:51
tinwhiskersthere are many explanations and motivations for why China might not report correctly. I'm not about to guess, but the data looks wrong.20:51
lapsangNothing about covid-19 looks "intentional"20:51
tinwhiskerserr, no20:52
LjLnot intentional i agree, but advantage could be taken of20:52
lapsangit's an equal-opportunity damager20:52
tinwhiskerswho said intentional?20:52
LjLlike people here did with hoarding masks/sanitizer and then reselling them for huge margins20:52
Spectinwhiskers: i did, above, right before i put on my foil hat20:52
LjLmove that to an international scale...20:52
tinwhiskersoh20:52
Guest24500Its Modified, intentional is the word20:52
SpecLjL: for medicine, yeah, they could definitely exploit world markets20:52
SpecGuest24500: what do you mean20:53
tinwhiskersSpec: Oh, I assumed you meant the purposeful action was misreporting20:53
Spectinwhiskers: ah, well, that could be something, too20:53
Guest24500The Wuhan-400 facility, built decades ago, told about in a Dean Koontz Book20:53
Specprobably purposefully misreporting to halt global economic downturn tho20:53
tinwhiskersyes, that's certainly a good explanation20:54
Guest24500Remember Plum Island And the Lyme?20:54
tinwhiskersbut one of many20:54
yuriwhoit's a zoonotic disease from animal sources20:54
contingoI could ask my relatives dotted around China, if where they are is also secretly an unreported horror story, or if they've been given a secret cure20:54
contingobut I don't like talking to them much20:54
Guest24500Most All Of these Germs Are Patented20:54
Speccontingo: :doit:20:54
tinwhiskersplease do it!20:54
LjLugh. every time i "fix" the bot, i am meant to stare at the logs and make sure my code is actually loading and not erroring out... and instead, i always end up chatting and forgetting about it until i'm like "wait, why isn't the bot saying anything" -.-20:55
yuriwho /ignore Guest24500 20:55
SpecLjL: :)20:55
contingoOK then20:55
Specno harm in inquiring20:55
tinwhiskersLjL: oh, my end seems to be updating correctly.20:55
Guest245008>20:55
Specmaybe they'll tell you the secret is chicken noodle soup20:55
LjLGuest24500, let's talk some sense shall we?20:55
Guest24500Want Patent #'s ?20:56
Guest24500look them up20:56
contingowell my one aunt has a bird's nest soup empire so she'll definitely tell me to take that20:56
LjLGuest24500, no, i stated what i want20:56
Speci don't think there's a patent on chicken noodle soup20:56
Speccontingo: nice :)20:56
contingoI won't get immediate responses anyway20:56
Guest24500Stay hydrated, eat well, The Strong Will Survive20:56
Specselecting for strong immune systems is probably not ideal for our current society and infrastructures20:57
Specbut ok then20:57
LjLGuest24500, i don't know about survival, but i know about survival in an irc channel: it generally takes engaging in discussion in a coherent way, providing explanations and motivations, and not just spouting sentences for effect20:57
contingomost of them are dotted around Guangdong20:57
tinwhiskersI tried to look up the patent number for covid-19 but failed. You've already looked it up have you Guest24500? Care to post a link?20:58
tinwhiskersidiot20:58
LjLtinwhiskers, it was fine without the "idiot" part, don't let it get to you, i did that yesterday and it just made me sleep late and not well20:58
Guest24500let me boot up my other rtig , hold on20:59
tinwhiskers:-/20:59
contingohow about "ya wee daftie"20:59
LjLthat's kinda funny20:59
tinwhiskersheh21:00
contingosee I studied hostage de-escalation psychology21:00
LjLanyway if you google "Dean Koontz covid-19", just for fun, you will immediately find plenty of hits explaining why he did NOT predict this... but to someone who believes it, i guess, that's just evidence that someone really wants to cover it up very badly. sometimes you just can't win21:01
contingoOK facebook messages sent21:01
Speccontingo: ya wee daftie <321:01
tinwhiskerscontingo: nice21:01
tinwhiskershopefully they don't get arrested for speaking out21:01
twomoonshow's the internet in Tonga tinwhiskers ?21:01
LjLi assume they're good at VPNs21:01
twomoonsi'm assuming you're on satellite internet21:01
SpecLjL: i took the day off but like, shit clouds :(21:02
Specjust depressing news21:02
LjLSpec, okayish day here today, yeah except for the news21:02
LjL%covid italy21:02
BrainstormLjL: In Italy, there are 4636 cases, 197 deaths (4.2% of cases), 523 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 18:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.21:02
LjL... okay i didn't even have THESE news yet21:03
Specdamn21:03
twomoonswow....the damn mort rate keeps going up21:03
LjLthe mortality just21:03
Tobi[m]can we make a group map with our locations, just the country?21:03
LjLyes, that21:03
twomoonshow the fuk is that possible21:03
tinwhiskerstwomoons: it comes and goes a bit, mostly due to poor management. There is a cell tower on another island about 3 km from here. I mostly get an HSPA but sometimes HSPA+. On a good day I can get about 500Kb/s21:03
Spectinwhiskers: where are you?21:03
LjLTobi[m], if you want (and others want)... i would prefer to have it somewhere that uses openstreetmaps, though, just nothing google21:03
tinwhiskerssorry, 500KB/s21:03
Tobi[m]because of the italian cases added to the statistics21:03
twomoonsahh ok, pretty slow for you probably21:03
SpecLjL: maybe italy is undertesting still so mort rate is not representative of reality?21:04
tinwhiskersi.e. 1 MB in 2 seconds. it's not too shabby.21:04
LjLSpec, but italy is overtesting is my understanding21:04
Specruhroh.21:04
twomoonsthe mort rate just cannot be 4.2% that's just absurd21:04
LjLi'm afraid you cannot tell viruses what to do, twomoons21:04
twomoonsi bet it's more like 0.5-1.5% in reality21:04
SpecLjL: omg21:04
LjLthey just figure it out on their own21:05
SpecLjL: all of the honey had settled at the bottom of my tea21:05
LjLtwomoons, well, that's true in Korea. if you can figure out why it doesn't seem to hold true in Italy, you may make a ton of Italians happy21:05
LjL(especially if you can also figure out how to change it)21:05
Guest24500us patent for some others 1st -  #5,604,903   5,189,022    5,242,82021:05
SpecLjL: oh, just stop dying21:05
LjLoh i didn't think of that21:05
SpecLjL: much like how we encourage the poor to end their suffering, here, stop being poor21:05
Guest24500JHK virus in CFIDS > 5,827,75021:06
LjLSpec, the poor and the old will die the most from this virus. we did need less poverty and we did have an uncomfortably aging population, didn't we? ;(21:06
tinwhiskersGuest24500: link please21:06
Specwhat is JHK21:06
tinwhiskersGuest24500: just to covid-19 though21:06
LjLi eat21:06
Guest24500cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid21:07
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ World: +16 cases (now 101873), +1 deaths (now 3462), ๐Ÿ”ถ Spain: +13 cases (now 400), +1 deaths (now 6), ๐Ÿ”ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3), ๐Ÿ”ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3), ๐Ÿ”ธ UK: +1 cases (now 164) ๐Ÿ”ถ Spain: +13 cases (now 400), +1 deaths (now 6), ๐Ÿ”ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3) ๐Ÿ”ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3) ๐Ÿ”ธ UK: +1 cases (now 164)21:07
twomoonsi'd love to move to italy to lower the average age 21:09
twomoonsoh wait i'm close to 40 already21:09
Guest24500adapted virus from monkeys patentstorm.us/patents/6117667/description.html21:10
Guest24500All this found at places like whale.to21:10
Guest24500I dont play favs21:10
Guest24500tinmam21:10
tinwhiskersMaybe check your links. they're all broken. either put up your evidence that covid-19 is patented or shut up21:11
Guest24500not my fault they're rebuiling there website, i saved  all these pages yrs ago on ext hdd. as long as i know wats up. I'm satisfied21:12
tinwhiskersevidence for *covid-19* being patented21:13
tinwhiskersdid you get that evidence years ago?21:13
Guest24500heres one for hpv that aint broke  whale.to/cancer/Creating-an-HPV-Industry.pdf21:14
tinwhiskersThat's about a patent on a vaccine, not the virus isn't it?21:15
Guest24500If You dont know how to find this stuff, try a different search engine, Or #Lern2Surf21:16
tinwhiskersAlthough there are patents on viruses so that's not in question. You're claiming covid-19 is patented though so you'd need to provide some evidence for that assertion.21:16
tinwhiskersoh.21:17
Spectinwhiskers: oh?21:19
Specah, he left21:19
Speca lot of broken links and claims21:20
Specgone, but not done spreading fud21:20
Spec15:19 <+Guest24500> Every Election Yr, nother Modified Patented ZGerm Is Released....hmnnn21:20
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ World: +18 cases (now 101891), ๐Ÿ”ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +5 cases (now 125), ๐Ÿ”ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ US: +8 cases (now 267), ๐Ÿ”ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +5 cases (now 125), ๐Ÿ”ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18) ๐Ÿ”ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18) ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +5 cases (now 125), ๐Ÿ”ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18) ๐Ÿ”ธ US: +8 cases (now 267), ๐Ÿ”ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +5 21:21
tinwhiskerssheesh21:21
Speci think the repeat bug is still there21:21
tinwhiskersLjL: ^21:21
BrainstormNew from Reddit Italy live at 20:23 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Riassunto per il 6 Marzo โ†’ https://is.gd/klAAWE21:23
LjLOkay21:24
LjLHaving dinner now though, will have to see later21:24
tinwhiskersI know I keep saying covid-19 is a virus, when that is actually the name for the group of symptoms caused by the 2019-nCoV, but lets just have a rule that we accept covid-19 as a colloquial alternative name for the virus too :-)21:28
tinwhiskersI should try harder on that really. I guess it could be an important distinction.21:28
Spectinwhiskers: we must make small sacrifices for greater understanding and communication21:28
Specryouma: welcome, check paste in topic for data sources21:28
Specoffloop.net is data aggregation/mapping provided by tinwhiskers 21:29
ryoumaSpec: thank you.  can teh bot be queried without troubling the channel?21:30
Specno, but no one will be troubled21:31
Specwait, i mean yes of course, you can PM it21:31
Spec%data italy21:31
BrainstormSpec: In Italy, there are 4636 cases, 197 deaths (4.2% of cases), 523 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 18:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.21:31
twomoons4.2% is nuts man21:31
twomoonsscary shit21:31
ryoumadon't you need a bot name to pm it?21:32
Specryouma: /msg brainstorm %data italy21:33
ryoumagreat, thanks21:33
ryoumamy hazy understanding of the sars epidemic was that it was part of the immune response to the virus that did its victims in.  this virus seems age-correlated?  does that mean that the same thing does not apply?  which parts of the immune system are most useful against this virus, and which might be harmful to the victim?21:36
ryouma(e.g. innate response / nk cells, igg)21:37
tinwhiskersryouma: yeah, cytokine storm21:40
ryoumaugh.  i have extremely high il-8 and il-6 and proably more alraedy.21:41
tinwhiskersthe same applies in that regard as with SARS21:41
LjLtinwhiskers: actually the virus is called SARS-COV-2, keep up :p21:42
tinwhiskersoh. crap21:43
ryoumai should have said sars proper or sars per se21:43
ryoumaor somethign21:44
tinwhiskersryouma: it's ok. I think everyone knew what you meant there21:44
tinwhiskersSARS = SARS-CoV. Covid-19=SARS-COV-221:44
tinwhiskersfantastic21:44
tinwhiskersI guess they didn't want to call it 2019-nCov because it would tarnish the reputation of 2019. :-/21:45
LjLtinwhiskers: well the disease is still covid-1921:46
LjLEven though we'll probably remember 2020 the most21:46
tinwhiskersyes, there is still that :-)21:46
LjLUnless I'm too much of an optimist and we'll mostly remember 202121:46
tinwhiskersYou're too much of an optimist. I may only remember the first 6 months of 202021:47
LjLThere is that too21:47
tinwhiskerslol21:47
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 20:43 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 1 new case in California, 7 new cases in Washington USA, national total confirmed 260 โ†’ https://is.gd/qJ7ejA21:48
ryoumathe offloop map seems extraordinary.  the delay in uptick in the non-china countries seems large.  so containment /of/ china seems like it delayed21:48
ryoumasuccessfully21:48
tinwhiskersI guess21:48
tinwhiskersthere was quite a delay it seems, but they didn't even try containment until weeks after community spread began, so I'm not sure you can say it was good managemenbt or just luck.21:49
LjLcontingo, Spec... Do you have an opinion about the concept of getting some spray disinfectant to just quickly spray all over delivered groceries, since I'm pretty sure my parents aren't going to just disinfect each package individually? Would that be useful with the right kind of spray?21:53
tinwhiskersLockdown in Wuhan was on Jan 23 and we were already seeing cases outside China by then21:53
tinwhiskersAlthough there may have been other strategies used prior to that that may have helped too.21:54
LjLtinwhiskers: also they announced the lockdown in advance which is what you'd expect of a smart country like Italy (and expectedly yes we also did)21:56
tinwhiskersLjL: so what's the deal with your quarantine rules at present?21:57
LjLtinwhiskers: we don't really have quarantine outside of the original two small cluster areas, we're talking less than 60k people. The rest of us, some activities are restricted, but I'd say that the only really big one is schools being closed, and that's countrywide21:59
ryoumai'd like to know about the groceries thing too whether delivery or not.  also, has it been nailed down the lifespan of the virus on surfaces?  i have seen hours -> 9d -> 28d "for veterinary coronaviruses"21:59
tinwhiskersryouma: I just really don't know yet so it's all speculation21:59
LjLryouma: yes unfortunately we have no idea. There is a link in the topic resources to a preliminary study of how long other coronaviruses last on various types of surfaces21:59
tinwhiskers*WE21:59
tinwhiskers:-/22:00
ryoumai am bedridden with an unhygienic, stressful, face-touching, convenience-oriented carer, so such questions are useful22:00
LjLtinwhiskers: there was talk of adding a third quarantine area in a place where cases were seeming to sprout, but I think that's been dropped, maybe they finally realized talking about it in advance would make it somewhat pointless22:01
Brainstorm๐Ÿ”ถ World: +17 cases (now 101910), ๐Ÿ”ถ Austria: +11 cases (now 66), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +2 cases (now 101893), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐Ÿ”ธ Argentina: +1 cases (now 3), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +2 cases (now 101893), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐Ÿ”ธ World: +2 cases (now 101893), ๐Ÿ”ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐Ÿ”ธ Argentina: +1 cases (no22:01
LjLThat's a lot of norways22:01
LjLAnd I am developing a sore throat :(22:01
tinwhiskersoh, no22:01
LjLI talked a lot today... But I think it's getting a little too strong to be just that22:02
tinwhiskersI was thinking I would get an entire box of certain foods so they are still in their original box. Then you open the box with gloves and empty the contents out such that the individual packets should be uncontaminated. But that sort of scale doesn't work for some foods.22:03
ryoumai got a definite nasopharynx/run-down symptom like a cold or flu is starting last night.  zinc lozenges and gargled salt, less bad now.22:03
tinwhiskerse.g. Ramen noodles would work for me22:03
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 21:03 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 1 new case in Romania, total confirmed 9 โ†’ https://www.reddit.com/live/14d816ty1ylvo/updates/0039b4be-5fee-11ea-b448-0e4f5fa4d1dd22:04
LjLtinwhiskers: there's no way I am convincing my parents to go full prepper style... Although they are finally kinda worried22:05
contingoI don't really know what would be most effective for that LjL22:09
contingodo you like swimming pool / chlorine smells?22:09
tinwhiskersLeaving stuff out in the direct sunlight may be effective and certainly wouldn't hurt for most things if that's an option22:10
LjLcontingo: I don't care but my mom is super sensitive to smells. Anyway I'd prioritize whatever works and isn't toxic to spray around over smell22:10
LjLtinwhiskers: not really, we just have a tiny balcony on the mostly not sunny side :(22:10
tinwhiskers:-(22:11
LjLThis apartment is a bit lacking on the balcony side22:11
LjLWe have a stupidly large bow window though22:11
yuriwhotinwhiskers: you will probably be that person alive given where you live22:11
LjL(Where other apartments have a balcony, alternate floors)22:11
yuriwhos/that/the last22:12
Brainstormyuriwho meant to say: tinwhiskers: you will probably be the last person alive given where you live22:12
tinwhiskersyuriwho: I hope you're right, but I think being remote will only delay the inevitable and I have a lung condition right now so I'm just hoping the delay is long enough to get better.22:13
ubLIXLjL: did you read the paper I linked at 16:49?22:13
LjLNo, going to get the laptop22:14
tinwhiskersI saw one doctor saying it was questionable whether you should take paracetamol and ibuprofen to reduce your fever, since a fever is part of your body's way of fighting off virues.22:14
tinwhiskersthey should be used if your fever gets dangerously high though22:14
tinwhiskersotherwise you should just live with the fever22:15
yuriwhoagreed tinwhiskers 22:15
LjLtinwhiskers, i don't have a fever though, i just have a sore throat. paracetamol kinda works for me as a painkiller that isn't hard on the stomach22:15
tinwhiskersoh, I see. 22:15
LjLit's hard on the liver but i believe that's only if you use it a lot and for long times22:15
ubLIXLjL: about a study of data for cases in Shenzhen between 14 Jan and 12 Feb, 391 cases and considering 1286 close contacts; in their data, they found R=0.4, which they attribute to symptom surveillance and contact tracing, emphasising contact tracing. 0.4!22:16
LjLi see it22:17
tinwhiskerswow. That's extremely low22:17
ubLIXLjL: would be curious to see data/discussion of Italy's efforts on contact tracing front22:17
tinwhiskerstoo low to make much sense22:17
LjLubLIX, i would be curious to see data of Italy's22:17
LjLin general22:17
LjLbecause i don't see much22:17
LjLalso site doesn't load, ugh, what's with my name resolving all the time22:17
tinwhiskersubLIX: You do mean R0 I take it?22:18
ubLIXtinwhiskers: well the authors use R (at the point I took that number from) but I believe so, yes22:18
LjLremind me, what percentage of cases present with a sore throat first? :P22:18
tinwhiskersah. ok. That's crazy low.22:19
yuriwhofever and dry cough are ~90% of first symptoms22:19
yuriwhoif you have a runny nose, it's not covid22:20
LjLthis is annoying but kinda funny-looking... https://framapic.org/o9SlbUsrUnGS/99dFnsyVkLsJ.png22:20
LjLyuriwho, no runny nose, i'm just developing annoyingly stronger throat pain. chances are is because i talked too much today, but it hurts22:20
contingolol Dean Koontz22:21
yuriwhowell, covid is a lower respiratory tract infection, not upper22:21
contingowell if hypochlorous spray really works, I recommend it for that22:21
contingoif it doesn't really work, then I don't recommend it22:21
contingo:P22:21
ubLIXtinwhiskers: in Shenzhen, though. Contact-tracing based no-ifs, no-buts preemptive isolation; release conditional on negative PCR. Must be easier to drive down R when citizens don't get to even think about saying no, never mind actually saying no22:22
yuriwholooks like pension funds were re-balancing again at the end of the day friday in the US markets22:23
tinwhiskersheh. I guess22:23
LjLcontingo, i might buy some tautologous spray :P22:23
tinwhiskershttps://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-222:23
twomoonshow can you tell that yuriwho ?22:24
LjLubLIX, tinwhiskers: in the Russian guy's video, where he shows the apartment he rented (and the crazy checkpoint measures to enter his own home), he also shows there are sign posted on all buildings saying that you are required by law not only to report if you have a fever or other suspicious symptoms, but also if you notice it on any neighbor. don't remember which place that was, though22:24
LjLbut he was originally based on Shanghai22:25
yuriwhosurge at the end of the day friday is often institutional investors22:25
python476what's RougeRR ?22:25
LjLi just got this in my Access Now newsletter about China censoring COVID things https://citizenlab.ca/2020/03/censored-contagion-how-information-on-the-coronavirus-is-managed-on-chinese-social-media/22:26
twomoonsahh ok yuri22:26
ubLIXLjL: anyway, the reason I mentioned it is you've been struggling for explanation of Italy's numbers; perhaps the aforelinked paper contains a sketch of everything your authorities comparatively didn't do22:27
ubLIXnot that that's news; we all know practically nowhere in the western world can match China's measures22:27
yuriwhotwomoons: it's also rebalancing season22:28
LjLubLIX, well my main concern isn't about how quickly it's spreading (although it definitely is... but i kinda of just assumed that was inevitable), but how comparatively deadly it is, and perhaps even more importantly how comparatively, uhm, hospitalizable that is. apparently up to 50% of cases are ending up hospitalized. that used to be 15-20% elsewhere22:28
LjLand the mortality rate goes up every time there's a data update now :\22:28
tinwhiskersweird22:28
ubLIXLjL: you're talking specifically Italy, here?22:29
contingothat percentage will go down as available hospital beds dry up22:29
LjLubLIX, yes, we are quite comparable to Korea, except 4.3% mortality rate in Italy, 0.7% in Korea22:29
LjLcontingo, yes, but i don't believe other countries hospitalized that much in the first place22:29
yuriwhoLjL: if we had age demographics data for hospitalized that would be meaningful in interpreting the data22:30
LjLcontingo, it also matches with a 10%ish ICU rate vs 5% general22:30
LjLyuriwho, yes, if i had age data for patients and/or dead that would indeed be very helpful22:30
ubLIXLjL: is your healthcare system already seeing worsening of care quality due to over demand?22:30
LjLyuriwho, but instead TV just keeps us reassuring, as a mantra, that all dead were elderly and with other conditions22:30
contingothere is something anomalous about the Italy stats22:30
LjLubLIX, yes22:30
LjLcontingo, what do you see?22:31
tinwhiskersIf the death rate has been consistently rising that makes me wonder if the method for calculating it is at fault, realted to the case:death delay thing.22:31
contingono I mean, I just agree with you, with your general stance of "why Italy"22:31
LjLah22:31
LjLtinwhiskers, at first it was 3% then it went down to 2.5% then back up to 3%, and then... upwards22:32
LjLbut admittedly that was pretty early, that dip22:32
tinwhiskersah22:32
LjLanyway i am not resolving a few names, including the medxriv one, so i need to reboot the router now22:32
LjLsee you in a minute22:32
contingoif this was the ectoplasm in Ghostbusters II then I'd have a theory22:33
contingohuh?22:47
LjLwell that was longer than a minute22:47
LjLand only solved by using google's stinking nameserver's, eww22:47
tinwhiskers80+ years old 14.8%; 70-79 years old 8.0%; 60-69 years old 3.6%; 50-59 years old 1.3%; 40-49 years old 0.4%; 30-39 years old 0.2%; 20-29 years old 0.2%; 10-19 years old 0.2%22:47
Tobi[m]children aren't affected here but can spread the virus22:47
tinwhiskersthen they have it22:47
LjLany interesting data posted while i was slightly gone?22:48
Tobi[m]<tinwhiskers "80+ years old 14.8%; 70-79 years"> yeah and if we see increasing numbers in 30-39 y/o then it will be worse22:48
ubLIXchildren have less severe illness, or show no symptoms at all. but they are just as likely to become infected (reference available)22:48
tinwhiskersthat's what a motality rate means. Of people who have the virus, how many people die. In children, of those who get the virus, death is vanishly low.22:48
yuriwhoalso, Italian families are close knit and the WHO says close contacts are most at risk22:49
ubLIXLjL: did you get the paper?22:49
tinwhiskers*vanishingly22:49
thebopeHas a single child even died yet?22:49
LjLit looks like OpenNIC changed the way their nameservers works... and, their nameservers, at least the ones i was using22:49
LjLubLIX, yes, finally22:49
thebopeIf a single child hasn't what about a married one?22:49
contingogroan22:50
ubLIXLjL: yanno, i could have just sent you paper if you'd asked :p22:50
thebopelol22:50
contingoquick, marry off all the kids22:50
LjLubLIX, that wouldn't have solved the fact my nameservers weren't working... i'm sure you are aware they're an important part of having a working internet :P22:50
ubLIXwhat is this internet you speak of?22:50
thebopeKnowing Pence he'll embrace that policy22:50
LjLubLIX, i bet with all your paranoia, you're using google nameservers!22:51
ubLIXisp's, or opendns, depending on mood22:51
ubLIXsometimes opendns is faster than isp, and sometimes reaches things isp refuses to find22:52
LjLactually... OpenNIC's anycast servers are what i was using, and they still do have the same IPs, so why wouldn't they be working >:22:52
LjLubLIX, i think when i researched opendns, i found it was slightly sketchy22:53
LjLbut i forget the details22:53
ubLIXhmm, same. i too forget the details22:53
joatds[m]<thebope "If a single child hasn't what ab"> thebope: as se know it, no child died from covid22:53
thebopeYea that was my understanding too22:53
joatds[m]I quoted wrong, sorry22:53
thebopeno worries22:54
tinwhiskersTobi[m]: I took the liberty of graphing the mortality in case it helps you to visualise it: https://imgur.com/a/QVeGSpJ22:54
tinwhiskersThat is not a U22:54
thebopeIt's like the brim of an asteroid bearing down on earth22:55
LjLubLIX, OpenNIC seems more actually... open... but it's not the first time i've had problems with some of their servers22:55
ubLIXLjL: you'll notice in some of the data that paradoxically some metrics improve after age 70, eg attack rate22:56
Tobi[m]I know, as kids aren't effected much as they can spread it but don't build symptoms. Still, it's a U or part of a U. If we see a W, like the middle old ones 30-45 are effected that would mean the virus spread via multipe non-symptomatic vectors such as kids and others and that would be worst than the situation now22:57
contingooh my days22:57
tinwhiskersjust no22:57
ubLIXLjL: which i can't fathom. i'll be reading this paper long after covid-19 is a memory trying to understand all of it22:58
Tobi[m]As in a matter of fact, the elderly people die anyways in if it's because of corona or 3 months later because of some other disease is not really in the statistics so if it keeps that U-way, we won't recognise the effect much22:58
tinwhiskersIt's part of a U as in just the right-hand half of a U...22:58
Tobi[m]not that much as if it's like W22:58
ubLIX*if i'm still alive, that is22:58
tinwhiskersTobi[m]: stop the bullshit please. "die anyway in 3 months"22:59
Tobi[m]<tinwhiskers "It's part of a U as in just the "> yeah that's what I meant. The death cases would be much more intense if we see people between 30-40 dying as much as elderly people, but that is in no way the case right now. We saw that with the spanish influenza in eht 20s and later I guess 78/79 with another influenza like pandemy 23:00
Tobi[m]but not with Vorona, at least not yet23:00
Tobi[m] * but not with Corona, at least not yet23:00
contingoI'm not tackling this one23:01
ryoumai wonder if there is an index of public companies thought to correlate negatively or positively witht he outlook of the virus that we could track23:01
contingoyou'll find lots of that stuff on trading forums and chats23:02
tinwhiskersryouma: yes, this might be a good time for a new investor to get into the market. I was thinking of moving to shares.23:02
Tobi[m]<tinwhiskers "Tobi: stop the bullshit please. "> it's about maths and statistics and not about single cases which are bad in any case of course. Just speacing from a mathmatical side23:02
tinwhiskers:-p23:03
ryoumai meant for prediction23:03
tinwhiskersyeah, if you find something let me know :-)23:03
tinwhiskersoh. I see23:03
LjL"Further, in this group, 20% were asymptomatic at the time of first clinicalassessment and nearly 30% did not have fever. This is consistent with a reasonably high rate ofasymptomatic carriage, but less than suggested by some modeling studiesโ€‹18โ€‹, though PCR hasimperfect sensitivityโ€‹20โ€‹."23:03
tinwhiskerssorry, I understand now23:03
LjLmaybe there is a middle ground between "no asymptomatics" and "there's asymptomatics ALL OVER THE PLACE"23:04
contingomaybe!23:04
thebopeThe cough is dry from corona virus though right?23:05
thebopeCause I've got a productive cough, so I'm convinced I have no covid23:05
tinwhiskersLjL: yes, but they do say that asymptomatic people mostly do end up being symptomatic at some stage (albeit possibly relatively minor symptoms)23:05
LjLubLIX, i also cannot understand much of the paper. but i've got to say, having read a few papers, i probably *really* should figure out what a simple convention that shows up all the time means... like "(OR=2.5, 95% CI 1.1, 6.1)", maybe it's not always this, but, lots of this. i assume 95% CI just means 95% confidence interval i.e. the standard but that's where my understanding ends23:05
ubLIXtinwhiskers: the asymptomatics in LjL's quote were so because they were found by contact-tracing; they went on to develop a normal covid-19 course23:07
tinwhiskersah. I see23:07
ryoumaodds ratio23:07
ubLIXOR=odds ratio23:07
ubLIXCI=confidence interval23:07
LjLso in that case "being male" OR=2.5 means if you're male, you are 2.5 more likely to whatever than if you're female, and... what is 1.1 and 6.1?23:08
ryoumaa dry cough means no sputum upon coughing?  true/false23:08
LjLryouma, that's how i understand it23:08
tinwhiskersto me a dry cough implies a kind of wheezy cough as well as being unproductive23:09
LjLi've long had a "dry" cough where i have some very limited amount of sputum that actually needs to be you know... controlled, or else it actually gets the features that the latin word "sputum" entails23:10
LjLbut i've had this for much longer than COVID has been around23:10
ubLIXa month ago i had an irresistible dry cough, fever, and general malaise that put my o2 sats down towards 90% for about a week23:11
ubLIXi really wish this had been covid (i struggle to believe some immunity is not conferred)23:11
tinwhiskers:-(23:11
ubLIXbut since the median recovery time for my age group is >30 days, i sadly suspect it was just a really bad cold or flu or something23:12
LjLubLIX, lol they call the virus different things at different times in the paper, unless i'm missing something... among which SAR-COV-3 and SARS-COV-1923:12
ubLIXlol, didn't notive23:13
ubLIX*notice23:13
tinwhiskersThat seems very sloppy. Is this a peer reviewed paper?23:14
LjLtinwhiskers, no, preprint, preliminary23:14
tinwhiskersah. ok23:14
LjLnot much time to peer review things yet23:14
tinwhiskersfair23:14
LjLwhoever thinks the Guardian feed is useful, raise your hands23:17
LjL<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews at 20:39 UTC: worldnews: The U.S. has the world's highest coronavirus death rate at more than 5% - a number that reflects the country's lack of testing โ€” from r/WorldNews at 20:39: Livethread: Global COVID-19 outbreak โ†’ https://is.gd/ehHrUL23:19
aradeshdunno23:19
aradeshdoes anyone know people who have got coronavirus yet?23:19
LjL... also it reflects the fact they just started having (tested) cases at all?23:19
LjLaradesh, i know someone who has met someone who had coronavirus23:19
LjLaradesh, luckily she's negative, considering she's also met me23:20
aradeshah23:20
tinwhiskersaradesh: I haven't heard of anyone here with it yet23:20
tinwhiskersa few people have some similar symptoms though23:20
LjLokay maybe i can give another go at why the heck the bot's posting random numbers now23:20
contingoit's straightforward... OR=2.5, 95% CI 1.1, 6.1. Informally, OR=2.5 means the investigated outcome / effect is 2.5 times more likely than the control/placebo/untreated/contrasted treatment or whatever. 95% CI 1.1, 6.1 means that, assuming some probability distribution with params estimated from the data, it's 95% likely the true value of OR lies between 1.1 and 6.1 23:21
aradeshwhat's the command for victim counts?23:21
LjL%covid UK23:21
BrainstormLjL: In UK, there are 164 cases, 2 deaths (1.2% of cases), 18 recoveries as of Fri Mar  6 22:49:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=UK for time series data.23:21
BrainstormLjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming deaths/cases with โ…” of cases undetected), and less than 9.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries).23:21
aradeshi bet a lot of people don't identify themselves as being sick23:22
LjLcontingo, ah, got it23:22
LjLaradesh, hey are you telling people what they need to identify as23:22
aradesh:P23:22
BruntLIVEfarting can spread corona? is that true, ass air?23:23
tinwhiskersaradesh: apparently most people with the virus will get some symptoms but they could be fairly minor; just like a dry cold, so yeah, you're probably right.23:24
ryoumathe problem presumably being that those who are in the less vulnerable group will congregate more, care less, and spread tot hose who are more vulnerable.23:24
tinwhiskersyeah, that seems fair. bloody teens23:25
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 22:25 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: First case in Oklahoma, USA. National confirmed cases, 275 โ†’ https://is.gd/k1NHnK23:25
aradeshguy sat next to me on the train today, and he was sniffling the whole time -.-23:26
ryoumathat is a not a symptom i've seen listed23:27
tinwhiskersaradesh: that's more likely to just be a cold23:27
contingocati would've sprayed him down just to be sure23:28
tinwhiskerscovid-19 common symptoms: cough (usually dry), shortness of breath, breathing difficulties, fever.23:28
aradeshtinwhiskers: why's that?23:28
aradeshokay23:28
tinwhiskersrunny nose isn't a common symptom23:28
aradeshphew.23:29
aradeshi'm probably gonna get it at some point though aren't i? :/ being a regular train commuter.23:29
tinwhiskersyeah, probably23:29
tinwhiskersyou really want to work hard at delaying that as long as possible though so don't give in just because it may be inevitable.23:30
thebopeYea I gots a cold23:30
aradeshtinwhiskers: how can i do that?23:30
contingocataradesh are you fit and healthy right now?23:31
aradeshare there any decent masks?23:31
thebopeWash your hands, don't touch your face is your best bet aradesh23:31
aradeshcontingocat: yes23:31
thebopeMasks aren't helpful for the healthy really23:31
thebopeDon't buy them unless you get sick23:31
aradeshi have been washing my hands a lot23:31
contingocatseems the majority of people in here have at least a cold23:31
aradeshand trying not to touch my face23:31
thebopelol contingocat23:31
contingocatso you are already doing well23:31
thebopeWe're like warming up for covid23:32
tinwhiskersit's important for the community in general that you avoid getting it even if you're in an age group that is likely to suffer few severe symptoms23:32
thebopeYea exactly23:32
thebopeBeing a spreader is a shit thing23:32
aradeshso just wash my hands thoroughly, and never touch my face?23:32
LjLokay i'm actually giving up with fixing the bot for the time being... i know there's some glaring logic issue with the way i'm handling "non-priority" updates, but it's one of those times when the more i look at my for loops the more i get almost a sense of vertigo in my stomach. i wish my brain worked.23:32
thebopeDon't want to end up killing Grandma who's also on the train23:32
aradeshthat'll help? :)23:32
thebopeThat will help a lot23:32
aradeshi thought mostly you got these things from the air23:32
aradeshpeople sneezing and such23:32
LjLi think for now i'm making it back into just, post updates whenever they come23:32
LjLsorry mefistofeles ;(23:32
thebopeOh yea, move away from people coughing23:32
thebopeThat's another big thing you can do aradesh23:33
tinwhiskersLjL: well, I could just reduce my updates to every 30 mins again23:33
aradeshso run away from coughing people 23:33
thebopeIt requires actual molecules to like land on your face and more porous areas23:33
LjLtinwhiskers, nah it's not that23:33
thebopearadesh: Run is a stroung word I think 6 ft is recommended23:33
thebopeBut can't infect you by landing on your skin23:33
aradeshthose muslim women in their hijab's are gonna be laughing at us23:34
LjLtinwhiskers, actually keep them frequent please, or trying to fix this later will be hopeless, if i have to wait 30 minutes to confirm it's doing what i think it should be doing23:34
aradeshi've been washing my hands so much, the skin is getting kind of raw...23:34
contingocatvirions to land on your mucosa23:34
tinwhiskersLjL: ok23:34
tinwhiskersaradesh: that is doing you more harm than good then. If you damage your skin you *may* get it from hand contact alone.23:35
aradeshit's the combination of the cold weather, and washing the moisture off my hands23:36
LjLtinwhiskers, if it gets in through the hand will it actually reach your respiratory system though?23:36
contingocatyou can moisturize afterwards23:36
tinwhiskersyou should try to fix that somehow. moisturiser?23:36
LjLaradesh, get aloe gel or some other thing like that, use it often23:36
ryouma15:31 <thebope> Don't buy them unless you get sick --- i'd add to this that if you get sick, you want surgical or non-valve masks.  the n95 with valve is goign to directly sohot the virus out23:36
aradeshi've got some nivea creame23:36
aradeshcream23:37
aradeshsomewhere...23:37
aradeshand some calamine lotion23:37
tinwhiskersLjL: that's a good point. If it gets to your eye you will become infected. The virus still infects you systemically but the symptoms show up in the lungs, is what I understood.23:37
LjLaradesh, i think the idea that you "mostly" get it from people sneezing and such is flawed, and is at this point more of a way to encourage people to keep distance and hygiene than anything. i suspect aerosol and surface contacts are very important vectors. that said i'm not a doctor or a researcher, but i've actually seen (preliminary, not-yet-peer-reviewed, what-have-you) studies that say these things...23:38
ryoumawhat was the price of a box of 10 n95 before all this occurred?23:38
LjLtinwhiskers, that makes me feel very good about the hypothetical continued presence of the virus in the body even after "recovery"... even outside of the issue of lung fibroris alone.23:38
tinwhiskersI mentioned the skin damage thing because I read it somewhere that damaged skin could allow infection but i can't be sure that was specifically for  covid-1923:39
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 22:37 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 8 new cases and 1 new death in Iraq, total 40 confirmed cases and 4 deaths โ†’ https://is.gd/q4W0ON23:39
LjLryouma, i know i could buy ten of them for โ‚ฌ30-40 on eBay while this was occurring, but not yet *this* bad. now it's โ‚ฌ130 at my pharmacy, and they're the few who have some23:39
ryoumaLjL: idgi.  you say sneezing and such and then you say aerosol.  what is the difference?23:39
tinwhiskerserr... SARS-COV-223:39
aradeshi have this habit of covering my mouth/nose with my hand while i'm thinking23:39
aradeshi need to get out of that habit :p23:39
LjLryouma, sneezing and such are droplets that fall down to the ground within about 2 meters. aerosol is when stuff lingers around in the air for an indefinite amount of time (also, potentially gets into air circulation systems)23:40
ryoumawhat causes aerosol?23:40
LjLair, and water23:40
LjLwhat causes *viruses* to be viable in aerosol, i don't know23:40
LjLbut some can be23:40
tinwhiskersaerosol is just very small droplets23:40
LjLaradesh, i've seen a couple of articles with "tips" on how to teach yourself not to touch your face. not sure if great tips though.23:40
LjLaradesh, you'll find some if you google23:41
LjLaradesh, honestly i think in hindsight we should have started practicing new hygiene techniques that are aren't very used to as soon as the outbreak started looking big in China23:41
LjLit's not easy to learn new habits quickly *and* while distressed23:41
tinwhiskersthe problem is it's really hard to stop old habits without some sort of replacement. I suggest touching your balls instead. It's worked for me.23:42
aradeshlol23:42
LjLtinwhiskers, what if i already do that *and* touch my face too23:43
tinwhiskersI wish it were that easy... I've come to realise just how much I touch my face.23:43
aradeshi'm not sure that would go down well at work23:43
tinwhiskersheh23:43
LjLaradesh, what do you mean by "down well"23:43
aradeshxD23:43
contingocati'm sure there's an arudino solution to this. Rings, proximity sensors, electric shock reinforcement23:44
aradeshdoes the same logic apply for avoiding catchingg ordinary colds too?23:44
thebopeYes23:44
thebopeWashing your hands and not touching your face is associated with a five times decrease in respiratory illnesses I believe23:45
aradeshinteresting23:45
LjLcontingocat, or you could devise something that gives you a very bad disease if you ever touch your face. that ought to be a strong dissuasive system... more than electric shocks, some people are into that23:45
aradeshlol23:45
aradeshLjL: i hear he was working on something like that in a lab in china23:45
LjLaradesh, i heard similar, except the lab was near some snacks machine somewhere in England23:46
tinwhiskersThere is a desktop application that tells you off when you touch your face23:46
LjLtinwhiskers, now that's a Novel idea23:46
LjLdoes it have a Linux version23:46
contingocatwell just a neutral thing23:46
aradeshi'm worried if my dad gets it. he has breathing problems already from having had pulmonary embolisms in the past23:47
LjLaradesh, yeah, that makes... a few of us, so far as i've gathered23:47
tinwhiskersI don't know. I was just on my phone when I went to the page and it told me to use a desktop instead so I didn't actually see anything more about it23:47
aradeshLjL: with parents with breathing issues?23:47
LjLaradesh, is your dad stubborn as hell too and won't follow any of the "stay home for christ's sake" advice you're going to give him?23:47
aradeshLjL: totally23:47
LjLaradesh, yes, or just elderly and otherwise at risk23:47
aradeshhe's a nightmare23:47
LjLaradesh, okay, here's your card, you're a full member23:48
aradesh^^23:48
contingocatI'm lucky, my mother followed my advice and didn't take her plane flight into the English winter23:48
LjLaradesh, my parents started taking a *bit* more seriously instead of "good lord this silly hypochondriac will both annoy and scare the hell out of us for no reason" when i told them that the WHO had said people older than 60 should stay home, and they ignored me, and then three days later our government told them the same thing23:49
LjLi'm not saying they had a full "okay you told us so" moment but the closest imaginable23:49
aradeshhehe23:49
LjLone thing of note in my opinion: allegedly (i.e. based on the Russian guy's video), in China elevators are considered some of the places most at risk. that's put down to all the button pressing, so they now provide tissues, or, apparently, toothpicks for the purpose23:50
LjLbut what if the main issue with elevators is virus-laden aerosol never really dispersing?23:50
tinwhiskersLjL: do you the link to that video?23:51
tinwhiskers+have23:52
LjLtinwhiskers, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1yXTlvTB0823:52
tinwhiskersta23:52
ryoumaso they ignore the who but listen to their gov?23:52
tinwhiskersOh, right. I saw a bit of that already.23:53
LjLtinwhiskers, you'll find the elevator part here https://youtu.be/A1yXTlvTB08?t=68223:53
tinwhiskersAh, yes. I stopped it when the overly dramatic music came on23:53
LjLhehe23:54
LjLwell he's a vlogger23:54
BrainstormNew from Reddit WorldNews Live at 22:42 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: First non cruise liner case in Nebraska, USA, national total 276 โ†’ https://is.gd/Ht2hQl23:55
LjLryouma, no they just ignore *me* i believe... i mean, i'm guessing here, but i suspect if they just saw the director of the WHO on TV saying it, they'd have heeded it. only problem there is the language barrier23:55
contingocatgood grief23:56
ryoumathere's a problem with human being where authority matters more than anything else23:56
ryoumaa generic problem23:56
contingocatthat is full on apocalypse music23:56
lapsangryouma nah that's humanity as we evolved.23:56
ryoumathat is what i am saying23:56
LjLcontingocat, it's a bit dramatic, but i guess that's the point23:56
lapsangThose of us who transcend Authoritarian worship are in the minority23:57
contingocatit leaves no room for when things get into full swing23:57
lapsangtechnically speaking, WE are the problem.23:57
python476so very true23:57
lapsanghttps://www.theauthoritarians.org/23:57
python476fractally so lapsang 23:58
ryoumalapsang: yeah i like that book.  i don't trust social science to know what it is doing, but it seems like it describes real differences.23:58
lapsangsurely you're aware that neurology agrees23:59
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