| python476 | i wish i was on a boat somewhere | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| tinwhiskers | I think they have an intern doing the data or something. it's shockingly bad | 00:00 |
| python476 | the ISS must be scratching their head | 00:00 |
| berndj | LjL, i facepalmed when i realized (after i'd left south tirol) that i could've just spoken german instead of tortured, broken italian :) | 00:00 |
| tinwhiskers | it'll probably be fixed in a day or so | 00:00 |
| berndj | don't astronauts go into quarantine before a trip? have there ever been pathogen-made illnesses in space? | 00:00 |
| tinwhiskers | berndj: I recall there was, yeah | 00:01 |
| slash_ | tortured italian is what they speak in the south of Italy I think | 00:01 |
| LjL | berndj, the locals would also have liked you better | 00:01 |
| berndj | tinwhiskers, i know recently someone had to be evacuated. but i thought it was more like "upset stomach" or something? | 00:01 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, that might be it | 00:01 |
| tinwhiskers | although that may well have been from a pathogen? | 00:02 |
| slash_ | this reminds me, you should watch the movie Contagion | 00:03 |
| slash_ | it's quite realistic, although ofc dramatized (it's a movie) | 00:03 |
| azbycx | k, ty. | 00:03 |
| slash_ | but they made the move with advice from actual pandemic experts | 00:03 |
| slash_ | movie* | 00:03 |
| tinwhiskers | it's a shame our governments didn't consult as well as the producers of that movie. | 00:04 |
| slash_ | also the disease in that movie is more severe than COVID-19 | 00:04 |
| slash_ | but it's probably the best movie about a pandemic | 00:05 |
| tinwhiskers | actually *my* government is doing a pretty good job afaict (New Zealand) | 00:05 |
| tinwhiskers | here in Tonga we're just trusting in God though. | 00:05 |
| slash_ | God is all powerful though | 00:05 |
| tinwhiskers | so they say | 00:06 |
| slash_ | but he is VERY lazy | 00:06 |
| mefistofeles | God has corona, though | 00:06 |
| tinwhiskers | I'd like to have a few words with him, frankly. | 00:06 |
| aeth | mefistofeles: and god is over 80 years old... :o | 00:06 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 00:06 |
| slash_ | god is currently in a resort on the other side of the galaxy | 00:07 |
| berndj | i'm a bit bummed that my local CDC-equivalent is so set on "known knowns", travel to risky places or contact with known-infected people: http://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/covid-19/ | 00:07 |
| slash_ | his return flight is in 239000 years | 00:07 |
| tinwhiskers | It's a good time of the galactic cycle over there. Why wouldn't you? | 00:07 |
| slash_ | 2020 has been so weird so far | 00:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet at 00:00 UTC: [Perspectives] Different ways of knowing: Mary is 90 years old, but still lives independently in sheltered accommodation. She likes living where she does, has friends, and goes out every day to the park or to the local shops. Her son is worried about her memory and persuades her to see her general practitioner (GP). [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qh03Fg | 00:08 |
| slash_ | if aliens show up in 2020, I wouldn't even be surprised tbh | 00:08 |
| berndj | like i don't want to be hypochondriac but i'm thinking, i almost never get sick, and now i have several of the signs of covid-19, although i haven't knowingly had contact with anyone who's infected | 00:08 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: well, that'd put things in perspective | 00:08 |
| mefistofeles | http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html | 00:08 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers "why are you killing the coronaviruses humans?? THOSE ARE OUR CHILDREN!!" | 00:09 |
| berndj | i'm guessing a developing-ish country doesn't have infinite resources and can't test everyone who would get tested in a wealthier place | 00:09 |
| slash_ | oh no | 00:09 |
| tinwhiskers | berndj: developing, like the US? | 00:09 |
| berndj | do we have anyone in this channel who's confirmed infected? | 00:09 |
| ryouma | i once was isolated for a couple of weeks or so, and caught a cold or flu. no idea what caused that. | 00:10 |
| slash_ | I've been infected with influenza once, AMA | 00:10 |
| ryouma | us is not doing much testing it seems | 00:10 |
| berndj | tinwhiskers, geez man, no that's just your national-hypochondria speaking, the US is not a "developing nation" like mine is | 00:10 |
| tinwhiskers | My neighbour's son-in-law is infected. That's as close as it comes for me. Mind you, she's in Switzerland. | 00:10 |
| tinwhiskers | err. he. she (daughter) is under quarantine) | 00:11 |
| slash_ | a friend of my sister has the virus | 00:11 |
| tinwhiskers | ah | 00:11 |
| Albright | %data idaho | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: Sorry, idaho not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 00:11 |
| Albright | Okay, so the governor just declared a state of emergency here despite there being NO CASES | 00:11 |
| slash_ | it's only a matter of time until we all know someone with the virus though | 00:11 |
| tinwhiskers | for sure | 00:11 |
| mefistofeles | Albright: that's the WHO recommendation, basically | 00:11 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm expecting LjL to get it soon :-/ | 00:11 |
| LjL | some say it's only a matter of time before we all know someone who died from the virus :( | 00:11 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, why thank you ;( | 00:12 |
| tinwhiskers | (stay safe LjL) | 00:12 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: I don't see that coming, tbh | 00:12 |
| slash_ | yes.. especially if you know elderly people | 00:12 |
| berndj | slash_, lol, yeah everyone keeps reassuring me that it's just a flu, but i don't know why i should privilege that explanation. it isn't really flu season here yet | 00:12 |
| mefistofeles | berndj: nobody is saying that | 00:12 |
| mefistofeles | at least no official institution | 00:12 |
| berndj | mefistofeles, i meant people IRL | 00:12 |
| mefistofeles | well, fuck'em :P | 00:12 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: that's not true. there are some idiots out there still sticking to that comparison. | 00:13 |
| slash_ | berndj you where from Zuid Afrika right? | 00:13 |
| berndj | whatever i have doesn't really feel like a flu. it just isn't severe enough, ironically | 00:13 |
| slash_ | berndj or idk what the proper name is for the nation tbh | 00:13 |
| LjL | my links list in the topic starts out with a rant on how it's not a flu in mostly any way, if that helps | 00:13 |
| berndj | normally if i catch a flu (which is rare), it knocks me well out. but i'm up and about(ish) | 00:13 |
| berndj | slash_, yes, .za | 00:13 |
| mefistofeles | now, objectively speaking, this looks more like influenza-A than SARS in some ways, as that Lancent article points out | 00:14 |
| mefistofeles | but that doesn't mean "it's just a bad flu" | 00:14 |
| LjL | berndj, there are many viruses that cause flu-like syndromes though... if it *is* covid, it is covid, and you'll probably find out at some point i guess. but if it isn't, and you seek to get tested or other hospital attention when you could reasonably avoid it... that kinda puts you at more risk for covid (at least in countries where cases are widespread, which may or may not be the case for yours, not sure how well they report) | 00:14 |
| mefistofeles | Lancet* | 00:15 |
| slash_ | berndj ah alright, I wasn't sure | 00:15 |
| berndj | LjL, yeah, though i'm not even talking about the minimizers who dismiss the disease as "just like a flu", i just have multiple people (IRL) telling me "it's probably just flu" | 00:15 |
| LjL | berndj, yes i got that, but at least here, lay people do call it "flu" regardless of whether it's actual influenza vs any of a number of other bugs | 00:15 |
| berndj | LjL, going by how mild my symptoms are, i'm actually hoping it is covid-19 | 00:16 |
| LjL | berndj, assuming it gives you immunity and no long term effects of note, yeah, i suppose | 00:16 |
| LjL | which seems like a reasonable assumption at this point | 00:16 |
| berndj | i think so too. i'm thinking that i might have to go get groceries for my mom/stepdad, so they can stay home, and it'd be relieving to know that i've already gone through the meat grinder | 00:17 |
| slash_ | berndj I'm Dutch, so we have quite some heritage in ZA, it is hard for me to judge how that is perceived | 00:18 |
| RougeR | ° | 00:18 |
| RougeR | anyone | 00:18 |
| RougeR | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI | 00:18 |
| RougeR | why has he done a 180 turn | 00:18 |
| RougeR | hes now toeing the government line.... | 00:18 |
| LjL | berndj, antibody tests are either available or quickly being developed. so at some point you should be able to know whether you have antibodies to it. when that will come to ZA... i have no idea | 00:18 |
| berndj | slash_, i'll pm you about that if you want | 00:18 |
| RougeR | John Campbell anyone | 00:18 |
| berndj | LjL, i'm thinking of freezing a sputum sample while i have <whatever>, because afaik we only have PCR testing here for now | 00:19 |
| romare | %data cyprus | 00:19 |
| Brainstorm | romare: In all areas, Cyprus, there are 19 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 13, 22:21Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Cyprus for time series data. | 00:19 |
| slash_ | berndj sure, I am actually quite interested, lot's of Dutch settlers went to ZA, but it's not like the Netherlands where the good guys in your nation | 00:19 |
| RougeR | anyone? | 00:20 |
| RougeR | this is huge | 00:20 |
| RougeR | one of the biggest independant sources has does a 180 overnight? | 00:20 |
| RougeR | and is now toeing UK gov line | 00:20 |
| adventurer | SARS stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome saying this because someone earlier thought it stood for South Asian Respiratory | 00:22 |
| LjL | RougeR, he's a nurse, he seems to have a grasp on what he's saying but i wouldn't take him as some kind of expert virologist or epidemiologist source (and even those are sometimes a bit contradictory) | 00:27 |
| RougeR | of course | 00:27 |
| RougeR | but its still very odd | 00:27 |
| RougeR | hes also a dr (not medical) | 00:28 |
| RougeR | its just odd he heavily criticised the uk gov. others are also criticising them | 00:30 |
| RougeR | and now as they give a big announcement | 00:30 |
| RougeR | he does a 180 | 00:30 |
| tinwhiskers | RougeR: what had he previously said that he has changed his mind on? | 00:36 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, he was heavily critical at the lack of UK gov containment measures and lack of social distancing | 00:36 |
| RougeR | he also praised countries testing heavily | 00:37 |
| tinwhiskers | Maybe the govt. has finally done the right thing for the current phase (it's now past containment phase) | 00:37 |
| RougeR | hey maybe | 00:37 |
| RougeR | but its a very odd change in tune | 00:37 |
| RougeR | and the uk gov is widely thought to be out of step | 00:37 |
| RougeR | so its an odd video from him | 00:37 |
| tinwhiskers | I had listened to one of his earlier videos and he is still saying the same things as far as I can tell | 00:37 |
| RougeR | if hes changed his mind, fine | 00:37 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, check the comments on the video for osme input | 00:37 |
| RougeR | its not just me thinking this | 00:37 |
| tinwhiskers | yes, they missed the containment phase | 00:38 |
| tinwhiskers | as did the US | 00:38 |
| RougeR | im not sure | 00:38 |
| RougeR | johnson did not advocate social distancing or cancelling larger events | 00:38 |
| RougeR | john has been VERY vocal about this | 00:38 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. ok | 00:39 |
| RougeR | yet he made no comments and endorsed gov strategy | 00:39 |
| RougeR | im not saying its wrong or right | 00:39 |
| RougeR | its just a very odd change in tune | 00:39 |
| RougeR | and he was ex NHS staff, i wonder if he has been asked to change his approach? | 00:39 |
| tinwhiskers | he did talk about slowing the progression though, which is what social distancing does | 00:39 |
| python476 | i need far uvc LEDs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fh4LfUc-AI | 00:39 |
| RougeR | bit tin foil perhaps | 00:39 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, yeah thats true | 00:39 |
| RougeR | mayube im wrong mate and he just came across wrong in this video | 00:39 |
| RougeR | but it just seems odd | 00:39 |
| tinwhiskers | fair enough | 00:40 |
| RougeR | he posts daily, lets see what he says tommorow | 00:40 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/europe/coronavirus-britain-boris-johnson.html woah | 00:40 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 00:40 |
| LjL | how can we all possibly have a sophisticated smartphone in our pockets and yet not even manage to give doctors face masks, nevermind other people, even just all doctors | 00:40 |
| RougeR | hes also praised school closures and seems very pro containmenrt | 00:40 |
| RougeR | idk | 00:40 |
| RougeR | lets wait n see | 00:40 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 Washington, US: +111 cases (now 568), +6 deaths (now 37) 🔸 Andorra: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 China: +2 recoveries (now 64196) 🔸 Chongqing, China: +2 recoveries (now 566) 🔸 Norway: +1 cases (now 996) 🔸 US: +10 recoveries (now 41) 🔸 California, US: +61 cases (now 282) 🔸 Illinois, US: +14 cases (now 46) 🔸 Massachusetts, US: +15 cases (now 123) 🔸 New York, US: +93 cases (now 421) 🔸 World: +12 cases (now | 00:41 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: maybe Campbell has only just now become convinced about the estimates of community spread (~10000 cases) and this is what it took for him to give up the idea of containment. I think he fundamentally wants to be useful, and harping about containment now, during rampant community spread is perhaps less useful than he might be. | 00:41 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, completly plausible | 00:41 |
| RougeR | but as i said, very different tune | 00:41 |
| RougeR | and out of step with other govs | 00:41 |
| RougeR | maybe he wants to toe gov line, even if he thinks its not on the mark | 00:42 |
| mefistofeles | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/10/my-coronavirus-comment-for-the-day haha | 00:42 |
| RougeR | because a coherent message is better than no message | 00:42 |
| ubLIX | yes, perhaps something like that | 00:42 |
| ubLIX | but the UK seemed not to have even tried containment. perhaps it's just taken Campbell this long to stop being angry about that, and move on to whatever other messages he thinks can be helpful | 00:43 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm not convinced Boris'plan is to just let the disease go until it you get the benefit of herd immunity cutting in. They are saying household containment will be necessary but that now is not the right time for that. I think the media might be jumping the gun a bit. | 00:43 |
| python476 | nice bet | 00:43 |
| tinwhiskers | They say if they introduce such measure too early people will get tired of complying and they will not get maximum effect in slowing the disease. | 00:44 |
| tinwhiskers | That seems reasonable to me | 00:44 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah i am not sure why everybody is assuming herd immunity is the UK's strategy. it may well be but i am not clear on how much that's just speculation | 00:44 |
| tinwhiskers | I found the reasoning for not closing schools a little suspect, but maybe that will also be done later, when they expect maximum effect from it. | 00:45 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | Easter holidays soon - so perhaps waiting until then to reduce the econmic impact? | 00:46 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, sometimes i hear it's "children don't get it" but i thought we were well past that understanding | 00:46 |
| LjL | namely they get it just fine, they just don't have symptoms | 00:46 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah, it was more about disruption to the parents work | 00:47 |
| ubLIX | i do think the economy looms large in the mind of the UK establishment | 00:47 |
| tinwhiskers | for example, people working in healthcare might have to stay home to care for children (true but pretty suspect). | 00:47 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | Makes sense - the economy pays for the NHS | 00:47 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, that's somewhat significant i guess actually. there *was* talk here in italy about the fact that if the parents just need to keep working, and can't afford a baby sitter (gonna be hard to even find one these days i bet...), the natural choice is the grandparents, but then you get the opposite of the desired effect | 00:48 |
| tinwhiskers | yes, they mentioned that too. The last thing you want to do is expose grandparents to children | 00:48 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, they just closed schools anyway and i don't think anyone is considering re-opening them now, just, it was a factor that was discussed | 00:48 |
| tinwhiskers | I didn't find the UK plan to be as bad as it's being portrayed anyway. They are delaying action though. | 00:49 |
| berndj | who was recommending Contagion, the film? the 2011 one or the 1987 one? | 00:49 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, based on what i'm seeing in Lombardy, aside from the subtleties of which message you want to send and just how flat you want to make the curve, and when, and to avoid an M-curve, and all that... the main thing is: build a lot of new ICU beds and do it fast | 00:50 |
| tinwhiskers | yes, absolutely | 00:50 |
| ryouma | it seems the choice during the containment phase in many places is (1) possibly contain, and economy tanks vs. (2) not contain in order to not make economy tank; economy tanks anyway and possibly more. they choose (1). i think (2) is where logic resides. | 00:51 |
| tinwhiskers | China really got in very early on doing that. 2 days after the lockdown (infections were at 1000), and had the first ready about 10 days after lockdown. | 00:51 |
| romare | berndj: who would recommend the 1987 one? | 00:52 |
| berndj | romare, i have no idea! it was only referred to by title here | 00:52 |
| tinwhiskers | They really seemed to have a good idea that the shit was going to hit the fan without the benefit of other countries to look to. We need to be getting more beds NOW | 00:52 |
| ryouma | hospital beds in japan are 7x those in the us | 00:53 |
| ryouma | per capita | 00:53 |
| romare | berndj, the 2011 one is quite relevant. you should watch it | 00:53 |
| LjL | ryouma, based on your own description, i don't understand why #2 would be preferable... | 00:54 |
| tinwhiskers | containment was largely about case and contact tracking (and a lot of testing), not total lockdown. That doesn't tank the economy. | 00:54 |
| ryouma | LjL: because economy tanks in both cases | 00:55 |
| Albright | Not yet sure if this is real or not: %title https://toiletpaper.website | 00:55 |
| tinwhiskers | now that we are past containment in many countries that's the time for lockdown to slow the community spread. | 00:55 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, when i told my parents we should be building makeshift hospitals right away, quickly, just as they had done in china, BEFORE the shit hit the fan in italy (before we had known cases), my parents were like "are you crazy? they can't do that". well, yeah, maybe not if they want to get re-elected within two months, but there weren't elections in two months *anyway*. they should have known it was coming. if i knew, they had enough experts to know | 00:55 |
| LjL | also. | 00:55 |
| tinwhiskers | right | 00:55 |
| ryouma | tinwhiskers: yeah but they seem to think recommending bannign large gatherings and so on is less preferable | 00:55 |
| LjL | ryouma, well since economy tanks, why choose the option where you never achieve containment? | 00:55 |
| LjL | at least with #1 you *possibly* achieve containment. | 00:56 |
| ryouma | LjL: oh i screwed up. i meant logic resides with (1) | 00:56 |
| ryouma | i was thinking you were insane | 00:56 |
| LjL | ah | 00:56 |
| LjL | well so i was i, except you :P | 00:56 |
| LjL | remove one i | 00:56 |
| LjL | make that I if you want to nitpick, too | 00:57 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: yeah, that's surprising. They said that people are better off outside at large gatherings than going to the pub instead. That's a bold call. I suppose if you can't get people to stay home then outside gatherings may not be so bad. | 00:57 |
| ryouma | my brain is not doing well | 00:57 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, call me repetitive, but i still don't have a convincing explanation for countries doing sanitizing of street surfaces and signs and the like, so i think i don't have the real picture of the issues "outside" | 00:58 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah. good point. maybe that's just precautionary. | 00:58 |
| ryouma | was the comment about th oil reserve a wink to the oil industry that they will get their purchases? | 00:58 |
| ryouma | or theater? | 00:59 |
| ryouma | "look at what we are doing" highly visible. | 00:59 |
| ryouma | without inconveniencing any industries | 00:59 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i bought the "it's for theater" explanation when china was doing it. then i was like "maybe they do it because they assume china knows something" when korea did it. but then iran has barely been doing anything constructive about it all, yet they are doing that. and finally now the mayor of milan said we're going to do it. maybe i should just @ask him why | 01:01 |
| tinwhiskers | I think they got a bunch of experts together and really thought hard about some of the less obvious consequences that arise from what other countries are doing and how people would behave in those situations, and then they made some tricky decisions that were likely not unanimous, but now they are showing a united front to those decisions. | 01:01 |
| tinwhiskers | such as children and grandparents, outside gathers vs. going to the pub. | 01:02 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, well the UK at least seems to be a voice slightly out of the choir | 01:02 |
| LjL | but then what's new | 01:02 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 01:02 |
| ubLIX | as theatre goes, hazmat-suited spray teams certainly would convince many to hurry home | 01:03 |
| ubLIX | and stay home | 01:03 |
| tinwhiskers | true | 01:04 |
| ubLIX | before i forget, tinwhiskers, thanks for offloop. i've tried only a few trackers and it's nice in offloop to have one that isn't a kaleidoscope of UI hell | 01:05 |
| tinwhiskers | thanks :-) | 01:05 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i could buy that explanation for Italy, maybe even for Korea, but from what i gathered, in Wuhan they had other at least equally as persuasive arguments to make you stay home | 01:07 |
| tinwhiskers | like small chinese women yelling at you if you are seen in the street with no good reason. | 01:07 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, heated arguments occurred here over whether taking the dog outside counted as a good reason or not | 01:08 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm | 01:08 |
| LjL | today, jokes abounded on Milan dogs being very tired from all the walking | 01:08 |
| LjL | (after police clarified that yes, it's permitted) | 01:08 |
| tinwhiskers | honestly, if you're outside and keeping your distance from other people it's probably just as safe as anywhere | 01:08 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | And take your Vitamin D :) | 01:09 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, well, that's only true if there aren't very many people around, and you *can* easily keep the distances. but if everyone goes outside then that assumption no longer holds. | 01:09 |
| tinwhiskers | lol. yeah. people with dogs will be pleased | 01:09 |
| tinwhiskers | right | 01:09 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, also "I had to have a walk to keep some sanity" is a tentatively acceptable thing to write on the form, but i'm sure at some point the constitutional court will decide on the matter | 01:10 |
| tinwhiskers | mmm | 01:10 |
| tinwhiskers | I guess if it becomes a problem they'll have to stop it | 01:10 |
| tinwhiskers | how's the mood there LjL? | 01:11 |
| LjL | i think the biggest problem is that they either don't have enough police to enforce these checks, or are using them way suboptimally | 01:11 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. right | 01:11 |
| tinwhiskers | they need armies of small chinese women | 01:11 |
| LjL | so as usual in italy, you mostly don't get stopped, ever | 01:11 |
| LjL | but if you *do* get stopped then maybe you'll have taking your dog out on your criminal record forever | 01:11 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 01:12 |
| berndj | imagine having to confess that on your resume under Criminal record: I walked my dog. when jobhunting | 01:12 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, the mood... i don't know in general, i pretty much only socialize on the internet, but my mood was far from great even before this started, so as long as i'm not screaming and banging my head against a wall, it's already a remarkable result | 01:12 |
| tinwhiskers | nice :-) | 01:13 |
| LjL | berndj, well someone lost his job after their employer (school) learned they had peed in a bush 11 years prior, and were arrested for it, but failed to disclose it. | 01:13 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, but maybe the general mood is even too good, since my sister went to the supermarket (ugh, why) and reported there's way too many people outside... and if *she* thinks too many people are being irresponsible, it's probably true | 01:14 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, man I can't come back to civilisation. I haven't *not* peed in a bush for nearly two years. | 01:14 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i honestly hadn't a clue it was a criminal act until i learned of that thing. | 01:15 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: I see | 01:15 |
| ubLIX | how are your lungs holding up, tinwhiskers? any nearer a travel or no decision? | 01:15 |
| tinwhiskers | I think I've improved slightly compared to a week ago, but it's still there. I haven't really thought about travel again yet. | 01:16 |
| berndj | tinwhiskers, what's up with your lungs? | 01:16 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't know | 01:16 |
| LjL | finding out is why he's tempted to travel | 01:16 |
| tinwhiskers | It feels like when I had pneumonia except for no gurgling | 01:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 00:11 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Poland closes borders to tourists and travelers. All incoming border crossers will be required to go into a 14 day quarantine. → https://is.gd/NRyNJk | 01:17 |
| ubLIX | does anyone know whether the interstitial pneumonia presents with wheeze/gurgle on auscultation? | 01:18 |
| tinwhiskers | So I think it's probably pleurisy. The last doctor I saw was useless but I have the name of a better doctor now so will try them out on Tuesday. | 01:18 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 01:18 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 17660 cases, 1266 deaths (7.2% of cases), 1439 recoveries as of March 13, 22:21Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 01:18 |
| LjL | every time i look i think i thought the numbers were different | 01:18 |
| LjL | it's hard to keep brain up to date | 01:19 |
| contingo | are you in pain, tinwhiskers | 01:19 |
| tinwhiskers | not much | 01:19 |
| tinwhiskers | heavy lungs, burning pain that moves around my chest a bit. No cough but feels like I have asthma. | 01:20 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | Can you hold your breath for 10 seconds? | 01:20 |
| contingo | for how long now? | 01:20 |
| tinwhiskers | c0d3glitch[m]: yeah, no problem holding my breath | 01:20 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | Then breath-out - do you cough/have-pain? | 01:21 |
| tinwhiskers | contingo: about a month | 01:21 |
| berndj | tinwhiskers, are you a maybe-case? | 01:21 |
| tinwhiskers | c0d3glitch[m]: not more pain than when breathing in or breathing normally. | 01:21 |
| tinwhiskers | berndj: no | 01:21 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | You'll be fine then :) | 01:21 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't think this will kill me but I want to be rid of it if/when covid-19 arrives or it might cause me problems. | 01:22 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | Are you dark skinned and live in a northern country? | 01:22 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | Take vitamin D if you are | 01:22 |
| tinwhiskers | You'd lose me on a snow field. | 01:23 |
| c0d3glitch[m] | hehe | 01:23 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm white living in the tropics and get a fair amount of sun | 01:23 |
| tinwhiskers | So after seeing a doctor next week I'll decide if I fly to New Zealand for testing (and risk running into a covid pandemic) or isolate myself on the island for a couple of months. | 01:25 |
| tinwhiskers | at least flights are cheap | 01:25 |
| contingo | sounds like a real nuisance. infections that drag on are no good | 01:26 |
| nt80 | when confirmed cases go to stationary isolation what meds are being given to those? | 01:27 |
| tinwhiskers | nt80: none | 01:27 |
| tinwhiskers | there's a few experimental things but there is no treatment other than a respirator for serious cases | 01:28 |
| tinwhiskers | drink plenty, don't take drugs to lower your temperature unless it gets extremely high. | 01:29 |
| tinwhiskers | (i.e. no paracetomol, etc) | 01:29 |
| tinwhiskers | if you feel hungry, eat. If you don't feel hungry, don't eat. | 01:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 00:28 UTC: (news): Google is making a coronavirus information site to help find testing as more kits become available → https://is.gd/REp9x5 | 01:31 |
| ubLIX | when i was ill a month ago with fever, cough, and somewhat low O2 sat, i took paracetamol only immediately before bed, for comfort to help sleep. i thought that was a reasonable compromise | 01:31 |
| ubLIX | although, there were a couple of days there when i was in and out of bed every 2 hours or so. not sure i can remember what i did on those days. more or less lost them | 01:33 |
| ubLIX | recovered in less than two weeks to didn't think covid-19 was a realistic possibility, but now i'm not so sure | 01:33 |
| ubLIX | *to>so | 01:34 |
| tinwhiskers | ubLIX: How long ago? | 01:34 |
| ubLIX | a month, month and a half maybe | 01:34 |
| tinwhiskers | is that plausible? | 01:35 |
| LjL | ubLIX, bought a pulse oxymeter yet? | 01:35 |
| ubLIX | not yet LjL | 01:35 |
| ubLIX | tinwhiskers: as time goes on and i get a more and more detailed picture of the illness, and of the length of time community spread could have been active, i find it easier and easier to think it's plausible | 01:36 |
| ubLIX | for the sake of possibly immunity, i kinda want it to have been covid-19, so that may be skewing my thoughts | 01:36 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i feel the more we learn, the more it'll seem like a realistic possibility. if the virus was already here in November as some doctors are suggesting now, i see no reason why it couldn't have been around for a good while in other countries too | 01:37 |
| LjL | ubLIX, yes, it would probably be a good thing, and you probably want to assume it wasn't unless you're very sure otherwise, in terms of mindset and behaviors | 01:37 |
| RougeR | LjL, | 01:37 |
| LjL | RougeR, | 01:37 |
| RougeR | so UK confirms its going heard immunity | 01:37 |
| RougeR | thats a 60% infection | 01:38 |
| RougeR | if 1% die | 01:38 |
| RougeR | thats 400,000 dead | 01:38 |
| RougeR | ... | 01:38 |
| LjL | i find it hard to believe 60% provides herd immunity in the first place | 01:38 |
| LjL | how did they confirm it anyway? | 01:38 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, I've heard a few epidemiologists saying 60-80% | 01:38 |
| RougeR | so its entirely focused on completly isolating vulnerable | 01:40 |
| RougeR | this is crazy | 01:40 |
| ubLIX | LjL: mhm. one other thing. i went 50% deaf in both ears at the time. not infection related (afaik); rather, such a forceful dry cough that my eardrums were bounced in and out for days to the point of deafness. and it took prednisolone to bring about a rapid resolution. but idk whether the impact of steroids points away from covid. | 01:40 |
| tinwhiskers | wow | 01:40 |
| LjL | yikes | 01:41 |
| LjL | ubLIX, well prednisone is what's always given for acute onset of deafness | 01:41 |
| LjL | always given, rarely works | 01:41 |
| ubLIX | lol | 01:41 |
| ubLIX | in my case it was given for 90% O2 sat | 01:41 |
| LjL | ubLIX, honestly at this point i have no idea whether having a "good" immune system is "good" with this virus | 01:42 |
| tinwhiskers | RougeR: That's not my interpretation of what the UK is doing. I think the media have it wrong. | 01:42 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, no? | 01:42 |
| RougeR | the chief medical officer is advocating 60% needed for heard immunity | 01:43 |
| RougeR | and they will *try* to isolate vulnerable | 01:43 |
| romare | %data greece | 01:43 |
| Brainstorm | romare: In all areas, Greece, there are 190 cases, 1 deaths (0.5% of cases), 2 recoveries as of March 14, 00:34Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Greece for time series data. | 01:43 |
| LjL | ubLIX, inflammation is definitely an issue with COVID, and i have no idea about prednisone specifically, i'm sure they're experimenting with all sorts of drugs on... well, mostly hopeless patients i guess. but i know of no reason why prednisone improving it makes it *not* likely it was COVID-19 | 01:43 |
| RougeR | so if they hit the 1% stat of 60% of uk pop | 01:43 |
| RougeR | 400,000 dead | 01:43 |
| tinwhiskers | while that's true they are not just going to let it run amok to get to 60%. They still intend to slow the progression to allow the health systems to cope. | 01:43 |
| RougeR | yeah | 01:43 |
| RougeR | again... | 01:43 |
| RougeR | every other country disagrees | 01:43 |
| RougeR | seems very risky | 01:44 |
| RougeR | im not saying its wrong | 01:44 |
| tinwhiskers | well, everywhere is pretty much going to reach that same point | 01:44 |
| RougeR | are they? | 01:44 |
| RougeR | its different peaks | 01:44 |
| tinwhiskers | containment is past now | 01:44 |
| RougeR | we can limit still | 01:44 |
| LjL | unless a vaccine is developed before we reach that 60% or whatever, yeah, everywhere will... | 01:44 |
| RougeR | south korea did it | 01:44 |
| RougeR | LjL, sure | 01:44 |
| tinwhiskers | all you can do is control the speed. the UK has not ruled out house isolation but say now is not the optimum time to do so. | 01:44 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, im very skeptical | 01:45 |
| RougeR | im noit saying wrong | 01:45 |
| RougeR | but skeptical | 01:45 |
| RougeR | again | 01:45 |
| RougeR | we have some of the worst social care and sick pay in europe | 01:45 |
| LjL | you should look at what happens with italy in a few days. for now we have had no time to see what the results, if any, of the lockdowns are. | 01:45 |
| RougeR | it strongly feels they want to deal with this quickly, have more deaths and take less of an economic punch | 01:45 |
| RougeR | it also fits government motives | 01:45 |
| LjL | when we see what happens with that, you can probably have a better guess of whether the UK is having a decent idea or being reckless | 01:45 |
| tinwhiskers | that's quite a different thing that what the media is saying. Everyone is suggesting the UK govt is just going to stand back and let it go wild. That's not the case any more than it is elsewhere, except they are intentionally delaying isolation. | 01:45 |
| LjL | although it may be late to change things by then | 01:45 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, yeah not because peopl will get bored though | 01:46 |
| RougeR | but because they want us to " take it on the chin " | 01:46 |
| LjL | if you ask *me*, we should have locked down harder and sooner and so should other countries while they still can. but i may have both mistaken assumptions and different hopes for different outcomes than you have. | 01:46 |
| RougeR | well lets hope uk is the one country who gets it right | 01:47 |
| tinwhiskers | I think that's a poor choice of words and/or a misrepresentation. The UK has accepted that they cannot contain it and are now switching to control the speed, while also protecting the most vulnerable. That's what they should be doing. | 01:47 |
| RougeR | and every other expert in the world iswrong | 01:47 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, so every other country is wrong? | 01:47 |
| RougeR | thats what im taking away | 01:47 |
| tinwhiskers | This is not contrary to what every expert is saying | 01:47 |
| RougeR | all of them | 01:48 |
| RougeR | i mean... | 01:48 |
| RougeR | it is | 01:48 |
| RougeR | every other country is containing | 01:48 |
| RougeR | we are accelerating somewhat | 01:48 |
| RougeR | no other country is advocating heard immunity | 01:48 |
| tinwhiskers | "herd immunity" is not a strategy. It's an outcome. | 01:48 |
| RougeR | i mean it is a stratergy | 01:49 |
| RougeR | we may get treatment or a vaccine in the next year | 01:49 |
| tinwhiskers | no, it's not. The strategy is to slow the speed until the population reaches levels of herd immunity. That's what *everyone* is doing. | 01:49 |
| RougeR | no other country is deliberatly increasing spread | 01:49 |
| RougeR | instead of halting it however they can | 01:49 |
| RougeR | im not saying its wrong | 01:49 |
| tinwhiskers | they are not deliberately increasing the speed | 01:49 |
| RougeR | but it is a lie to say its out of stem | 01:49 |
| RougeR | yes they are | 01:49 |
| RougeR | if they fully contained now, its spread would slow | 01:50 |
| RougeR | if social isolation and events were limited | 01:50 |
| RougeR | it would spread slower | 01:50 |
| RougeR | this is indirectly a foot on the accelerator | 01:50 |
| tinwhiskers | no. they have modelled this and think that delaying containment will reduce the speed more than doing it now. | 01:50 |
| RougeR | still a foot on accelerator | 01:50 |
| LjL | RougeR, every other country is not containing. Italy is most definitely not containing at this stage. | 01:50 |
| RougeR | it might be a delay | 01:50 |
| RougeR | but it is a speed up | 01:51 |
| RougeR | it might be better | 01:51 |
| tinwhiskers | if earlier was better then every country with a case should be doing full containment NOW, but they are not because that is not the best time. | 01:51 |
| RougeR | but again | 01:51 |
| tinwhiskers | the UK is doing what everyone else is doing. They are weighing up the best time to do it. | 01:51 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, they are social distancing and limiting spread | 01:51 |
| RougeR | uk is not | 01:51 |
| RougeR | hence | 01:51 |
| RougeR | acceleration | 01:51 |
| RougeR | its is at odds with global community | 01:51 |
| tinwhiskers | no, that's not advocating for acceleration | 01:51 |
| RougeR | it literally is | 01:51 |
| RougeR | even if its short term | 01:51 |
| RougeR | im not claiming one is better | 01:52 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: i agree with you it is very hard not to see "devil take the hindmost" in the Tory party's policies, but on face value, they WANT to delay the peak as long as possible, not speed it up. Ok, perhaps they are not doing enough to achieve the desired delay, but delay IS their avowed aim | 01:52 |
| LjL | i see like six messages from RougeR for each message from tinwhiskers. can you press the Enter key some more, tinwhiskers? | 01:52 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, i dont disagree | 01:52 |
| RougeR | bnut its very worrying | 01:52 |
| RougeR | why is every other expert in the world not advocating this revolutionary strategy, and we are? | 01:52 |
| RougeR | again, im not saying we are wrong....but im very worried for every country if we are right and they are wrong? | 01:52 |
| tinwhiskers | they aren't. Most countries are not doing full containment | 01:53 |
| RougeR | are their experts all idiots? | 01:53 |
| LjL | again, what is the huge difference between what you're doing and what we're doing? we're also trying to slow it down. we're doing it much more aggressively because our ICUs are exploding. | 01:53 |
| tinwhiskers | only once it advances to a certain point do you do full containment | 01:53 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, EVERY OTHER COUNTRY is limiting events and socially isolating | 01:53 |
| dTal | ubLIX: it does seem as if they are making excuses for not doing more. "Well actually, it would be bad if we contained it *too* well!", as if that were at all a risk right now. | 01:53 |
| RougeR | you can say the uk approach is better | 01:53 |
| RougeR | but it is out of step | 01:53 |
| RougeR | so why dont we do more to tell other countries to follow out advise if its so great | 01:53 |
| LjL | why didn't you convince the EU that your approach was better instead of leaving it? :P | 01:54 |
| LjL | okay, okay, nevermind that one | 01:54 |
| tinwhiskers | RougeR: maybe have a read of this: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/responsible-response-examining-uk-governments-covid-19-strategy | 01:56 |
| RougeR | > While not well enough communicated | 01:56 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: sports events have been cancelled indefinitely. Large gatherings have been forbidden. Consider that in the UK, schools will close within a fortnight (not official, but ask a teacher to guess). Our government doesn't want exploding ICUs, but maybe they won't do enough until it's obvious they have failed to flatten the curve. dTal, I don't know if they are half-arsing it, but everyone I've spoken with thinks they are not doing enough | 01:57 |
| ubLIX | soon enough. We'll find out, I suppose | 01:57 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, no | 01:57 |
| RougeR | they chose too | 01:57 |
| RougeR | the gov did not | 01:57 |
| RougeR | large gatherings have not | 01:57 |
| RougeR | cheltnenham fest is ongoing | 01:57 |
| ubLIX | Cheltenham is finished, no? | 01:58 |
| RougeR | today | 01:58 |
| tinwhiskers | they have argued based on the evidence they have the outdoor gatherings are not particularly risky | 01:58 |
| RougeR | there are no limits on public gatherings | 01:58 |
| RougeR | again tinwhiskers | 01:58 |
| RougeR | ever other country is wrong then? | 01:58 |
| ubLIX | and it is touted as the last large sporting event in who knows how long | 01:58 |
| RougeR | all of them | 01:58 |
| RougeR | theyve just stopped all large gatherings for a laugh? | 01:58 |
| dTal | They are more risky by far than staying home | 01:58 |
| RougeR | yuh know what | 01:58 |
| RougeR | all that sport money and tourism | 01:58 |
| RougeR | nahhh | 01:58 |
| RougeR | lets just cancel it | 01:58 |
| RougeR | just for a laffff | 01:59 |
| contingo | UK's approach is clearly highly changeable https://www.theguardian.com/uk | 01:59 |
| RougeR | ? | 01:59 |
| tinwhiskers | they've stopped all gatherings out of an abundance of caution. The UK experts are saying that they don't believe that is necessary | 01:59 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, and they are right, EVERY other country is wrong | 01:59 |
| RougeR | excuse me for being highly skeptical | 01:59 |
| RougeR | im not saying they are wrong | 01:59 |
| contingo | is that headline mistaken? | 01:59 |
| RougeR | but they will need to do a lot more | 01:59 |
| RougeR | to convinceme | 01:59 |
| tinwhiskers | well, actually they don't have to :-) | 01:59 |
| RougeR | hahahahahahahahah | 01:59 |
| RougeR | trheyve fucking u turned | 01:59 |
| RougeR | oh my fucking god | 01:59 |
| RougeR | you couldnt make it up | 02:00 |
| RougeR | SO WHICH IS IT | 02:00 |
| RougeR | fuck me | 02:00 |
| ubLIX | they could have done more, no question | 02:00 |
| RougeR | sooo | 02:00 |
| RougeR | all of what we have just been arguing about | 02:00 |
| RougeR | moot pint | 02:00 |
| RougeR | "Mass gatherings are to be banned across the UK from next weekend, the government has announced after Boris Johnson’s cautious approach to the coronavirus outbreak was overtaken by care homes, sporting bodies and even the Queen taking matters into their own hands." | 02:01 |
| ubLIX | pint sounds good. meet you down the pub? | 02:01 |
| RougeR | winchester | 02:01 |
| tinwhiskers | not all. they never advocated for deliberately increasing the speed. | 02:01 |
| LjL | backscroll sure looks a lot longer this way | 02:02 |
| skyofdust | Yeah, and my bot won't shut up because of all the short messages. | 02:02 |
| skyofdust | Make up your mind and them press return man. | 02:02 |
| Birosso | H | 02:03 |
| Birosso | m | 02:03 |
| Birosso | m | 02:03 |
| Birosso | m | 02:03 |
| Birosso | Sorry, couldn't resist. | 02:03 |
| skyofdust | Hahaha damn you | 02:03 |
| LjL | Birosso, you are... | 02:03 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: going back to Campbell (between pauses, I'm still only 2/3 through that vid), it seems to me that given the government's message re shift policy to delay, Campbell feels he has no choice now but to hammer home what delay means in terms of responsibility for the likes of you and me. How it comes across to me, anyway. | 02:04 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, i think that might be right | 02:04 |
| RougeR | i think he may not agree, but hes gritting his teeth and toeing the line to help | 02:05 |
| ubLIX | yes. he is still is angry self at moments, but now the anger is diverted to pressing home exactly how important it is that WE contribute to the 'delay' | 02:05 |
| slash_ | after drinking 9 beer, I have to to a very clear realization: | 02:05 |
| skyofdust | Ooh did we reach the Balmer peak? | 02:06 |
| RougeR | slash_, driink more | 02:06 |
| RougeR | skyofdust, nah that 2.5 drinks | 02:06 |
| RougeR | i went beyond the peak long ago | 02:06 |
| RougeR | im now on the covid peak | 02:06 |
| tinwhiskers | ahhhh | 02:06 |
| RougeR | did not flatten the curvbe | 02:06 |
| RougeR | tbf i stopped drinking an hour ago | 02:06 |
| RougeR | i did find it funny the shops were well stocked on booze | 02:07 |
| RougeR | reassuring | 02:07 |
| RougeR | no bog roll | 02:07 |
| RougeR | but lots of whisky n beer | 02:07 |
| skyofdust | Hmmm, I should self cultivate some weed, in the worst case scenario I don't know if it's going to be as available as it is now. | 02:08 |
| RougeR | "Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth welcomed the move in an interview on the programme, but urged the government to be "clear" about its plans. | 02:08 |
| RougeR | "If that means publishing the scientific modelling so that all the experts can analyse it and peer review it and stress test it, if that maintains public confidence, that's an important step," the Labour MP said." | 02:08 |
| ubLIX | what i don't yet understand is why the government here is saying that we should (on development of the symptoms) self-isolate for ONLY 7 DAYS?! | 02:09 |
| slash_ | RougeR I cant drink more, that was the last one | 02:09 |
| ubLIX | ok, the mean time to symptoms might only be ~4 days, but is it not established that it can be upto 14 days? or does that just not matter now; now that asymptomatic contagion is assumed | 02:10 |
| tinwhiskers | ubLIX: their modelling suggests that symptoms almost always appear by 5-7 days, so they are probably considering that after that there is a low risk, and that the economic value of remaining isloated is low. | 02:10 |
| tinwhiskers | they likely ran a bunch of models and found that that resulted in the best outcome based on both spread speed and economy. | 02:10 |
| tinwhiskers | that a few people take longer to get symptoms than that doesn't matter if the rate it happens at is low | 02:11 |
| ubLIX | hmm. i agree with the above MP that it'd be a fine thing if they published their detailed modelling. might be a political minefield, though | 02:11 |
| tinwhiskers | remember this is not containment now, it's management | 02:11 |
| ubLIX | yeah | 02:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 01:05 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Should people work from home, and other questions answered → https://is.gd/ecVXna | 02:12 |
| RougeR | slash_, i meaaaan | 02:13 |
| slash_ | why is that a question lol? | 02:13 |
| RougeR | have you tried hard ;) | 02:13 |
| RougeR | im off for another whisky sour | 02:13 |
| slash_ | working from home is the recommendation | 02:13 |
| RougeR | slash_, im doing my part! | 02:13 |
| slash_ | RougeR sounds good, get one for me! | 02:13 |
| RougeR | drinking from home! | 02:13 |
| RougeR | hahahaha | 02:13 |
| RougeR | mmm will doo | 02:13 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i don't think widespread asymptomatic contagion is *assumed* yet. i think it's more like, the virus shedding peaks around the early symptomatic stages. | 02:14 |
| LjL | ubLIX, when you have had it for longer than 10 days, you may not be significantly contagious anymore (although it'd be a bit of a bet based on early papers to just tell people they can leave home again after little more than one week) | 02:15 |
| tinwhiskers | the UK experts stated that in the UK they expected the asymptomatic contagion to be about 20 times the confirmed cases. | 02:15 |
| slash_ | there is no conclusive evidence on asymptomatic spread, but so far it seems that people are at least somewhat contagious when asymptomatic | 02:16 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, that sounds like a false dichotomy though... "confirmed" plus "asymptomatic" don't form the full set of positive people | 02:16 |
| tinwhiskers | read it again. | 02:16 |
| slash_ | no I read it | 02:17 |
| LjL | i'm still reading it the same way | 02:17 |
| tinwhiskers | when there are 4000 confirmed cases they expect about 80000 people in the community to have it | 02:17 |
| LjL | slash_, it may be a moot point. if it's established that people are *very* contagious *early* during the symptoms, then even if it's not fully asymptomatic, those people will be inevitably out and about. | 02:17 |
| slash_ | I am not arguing against you | 02:17 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, that doesn't mean 80000-4000 people are asymptomatic. it just means they weren't tested. | 02:17 |
| tinwhiskers | have not yet shown symptoms and have not ended up in hospital | 02:18 |
| slash_ | I was trying to state: just because there is no conclusive scientific evidence does not mean it does not exist | 02:18 |
| ubLIX | well, that 80000 will include mildly ill people who think they have a common cold | 02:18 |
| LjL | do they have a crystal ball to know that all those people don't have a slight fever but just aren't telling anyone? | 02:19 |
| tinwhiskers | ubLIX: oh, yes. right | 02:19 |
| LjL | yes, you see, that's what i was saying | 02:19 |
| tinwhiskers | they are just saying that if there are 4000 people confirmed there are about 80000 people unconfirmed with it | 02:19 |
| LjL | hence my false dichotomy claim | 02:19 |
| slash_ | there is NO conclusive scientific evidence on asymptomatic spread atm, so to be safe we must assume it exists | 02:20 |
| tinwhiskers | we no it exists | 02:20 |
| tinwhiskers | *we know it exists | 02:20 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers, from concrete evidence yes | 02:20 |
| tinwhiskers | people are well documented to be able to infect others several days before showing symptoms. that *is* asymptomatic spread. | 02:20 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers it is extremely likely it happens | 02:21 |
| tinwhiskers | it absolutely happens | 02:21 |
| LjL | we know it exists, but whether it's *significant* is not established. however, my main point is, who cares? if we know people are highly contagious when only very mildly symptomatic, it's the same for practical purposes. | 02:21 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +139 cases (now 145795), +4 deaths (now 5424), +22 recoveries (now 71036) 🔸 Andorra: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 Argentina: +3 cases (now 34) 🔸 Tasmania, Australia: +2 cases (now 5) 🔸 Bolivia: +7 cases (now 10) 🔸 Brazil: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 Bulgaria: +8 cases (now 31) 🔸 Canada: +19 cases (now 198) 🔸 Alberta, Canada: +6 cases (now 29) 🔸 British Columbia, Canada: +11 cases (now 64) 🔸 Manitoba, | 02:21 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers I am merely stating that there are no scientific studies yet that can confirm or deny. | 02:21 |
| tinwhiskers | I think you're wrong on that | 02:22 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers so must act as if it is true | 02:22 |
| tinwhiskers | There are some papers being published by now and plenty of evidence that people have been infected prior to contacts showing symptoms. | 02:22 |
| tinwhiskers | contact tracing demonstrates conclusively that it's been occurring | 02:23 |
| LjL | can we agree that while academically interesting, it's mostly irrelevant? | 02:23 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers yes I know, but not peer reviewed. The point I am trying to make is that some people DEMAND peer reviewed conclusive studies before considering measures. That is too late. | 02:24 |
| slash_ | those requirements are not feasible atm | 02:25 |
| tinwhiskers | I bet there already are some peer reviewed papers available by now that do demonstrate this | 02:25 |
| slash_ | when urgency is required | 02:25 |
| tinwhiskers | I think you're mixing things up | 02:25 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers I hope so | 02:25 |
| tinwhiskers | I think you're referring to the amount of people who spread the disease through the community without *ever* showing symptoms | 02:25 |
| tinwhiskers | that we don't know | 02:25 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers but my government today stated they are not there yet, which frustrates me | 02:25 |
| tinwhiskers | but we do have an idea of how many people spread the disease *and then* get symptoms | 02:26 |
| slash_ | I am not arguing against that | 02:27 |
| tinwhiskers | but just from epidemiological studies we can estimate both anyway, and that's how they came up with the figure of about 20 times the number of people are actually infected than what we are showing as confirmed cases. | 02:28 |
| slash_ | right, again, I am not arguing against that | 02:28 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. ok. | 02:28 |
| slash_ | I am arguing against governments waiting until there is "absolute certainty confirmed by peer reviewed scienc", which is not BAD, but it is too slow | 02:30 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I see. Sorry. Yes | 02:30 |
| slash_ | we are already 99% sure asymptomatic spread is a thing, no use waiting for 100% confirmation and act now | 02:30 |
| slash_ | no probs tinwhiskers | 02:31 |
| tinwhiskers | well, we're 100% sure... but ok | 02:31 |
| slash_ | well we are :p | 02:31 |
| slash_ | my government is not | 02:31 |
| tinwhiskers | right :-) | 02:31 |
| slash_ | I was sure weeks ago :P | 02:31 |
| slash_ | government was stating this week "no symptoms not possible to spread" | 02:32 |
| slash_ | sigh | 02:32 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't have a position on that myself. When I say "we" are sure, I mean the experts are sure. | 02:32 |
| slash_ | yeah, we collectively know, and experts know | 02:33 |
| tinwhiskers | there are numerous documented cases of people getting the disease from people who later developed symptoms. | 02:33 |
| slash_ | I know :( | 02:33 |
| tinwhiskers | ok :-) | 02:33 |
| slash_ | but the government here is like 2 months behind or something I don't know :S | 02:34 |
| tinwhiskers | I see | 02:34 |
| tinwhiskers | My government just listens to their experts | 02:34 |
| slash_ | they've kept repeating "asymptomatic spread is not a thing" | 02:34 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. I see | 02:34 |
| slash_ | mine claim to do the same thing | 02:34 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: what's happening with figures in offloop? btw | 02:35 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: oh. crud. that must have just happened | 02:36 |
| tinwhiskers | F'in John Hopkins | 02:36 |
| mefistofeles | yeah I guess they changed names | 02:36 |
| tinwhiskers | ffs | 02:36 |
| mefistofeles | now we have regions, I guess | 02:37 |
| RougeR | https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=12&v=piD0BiPeoXA&feature=emb_logo | 02:38 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +122 cases (now 145917), +1 deaths (now 5425), +205 recoveries (now 71241) 🔶 Korea, South: +107 cases (now 8086), +1 deaths (now 72), +204 recoveries (now 714) 🔸 Andorra: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 Argentina: +3 cases (now 34) 🔸 Tasmania, Australia: +2 cases (now 5) 🔸 Bolivia: +7 cases (now 10) 🔸 Brazil: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 Bulgaria: +8 cases (now 31) 🔸 Canada: +19 cases (now 198) 🔸 Alber | 02:41 |
| LjL | uh oh korea | 02:41 |
| LjL | %cases korea | 02:41 |
| RougeR | "Countries should find and test every case of coronavirus to stop the pandemic, the World Health Organization has said a day after the UK announced that only the most seriously ill will be tested. | 02:42 |
| RougeR | “You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is,” the WHO’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at a briefing on Friday. “Find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of Covid transmission. Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease.”" | 02:42 |
| RougeR | hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm | 02:42 |
| tinwhiskers | Jesus, their data management is shit | 02:42 |
| tinwhiskers | RougeR: that was when you were in the containment phase. that horse bolted and no longer applies | 02:42 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Korea, South, there are 8086 cases, 72 deaths (0.9% of cases), 714 recoveries as of March 14, 01:31Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Korea,%20South for time series data. | 02:42 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 9.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 02:42 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, your graphs are acting weird, the line doesn't reach to the rightmost side of the graph, and if i enable non-authoritative, it draws the dot but doesn't connect it to the previous dot | 02:44 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah. JH | 02:44 |
| tinwhiskers | just looking into it | 02:44 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, its on current articles | 02:45 |
| RougeR | and is current opinion of many | 02:45 |
| tinwhiskers | erm. have some coffee | 02:45 |
| RougeR | nah its 2am | 02:46 |
| ubLIX | oh, if i'd just listened another 30 seconds to the vid: "isolate 7 days, if symptoms occur whole household switches to 14 days" | 02:47 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, curious what my island will do | 02:47 |
| RougeR | considering we could actually isolate | 02:47 |
| tinwhiskers | ah | 02:47 |
| RougeR | vs heard immunity | 02:47 |
| RougeR | UK community spread is ongoing | 02:47 |
| tinwhiskers | again, herd immunity is not a strategy | 02:47 |
| contingo | midway through Contagion (2011). Strategies to consider so far. 1. take homeopathic preparations of Forsythia; 2. kidnap a WHO epidemiologist and hold her hostage to get the to front of the queue for a vaccine | 02:47 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, errrr | 02:47 |
| RougeR | "Around 60% of the population will need to contract coronavirus in order for the UK to enjoy "herd immunity" | 02:48 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, no i do | 02:48 |
| RougeR | the uk gov strategy is herd immunity | 02:49 |
| RougeR | its quite clear | 02:49 |
| RougeR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work | 02:49 |
| tinwhiskers | it is true that people in ALL countries will start getting the benefits of herd immunity at 60%. The *strategy* is to slow the spread UNTIL it reaches herd immunity. HERD IMMUNITY IS NOT A STRATEGY | 02:49 |
| LjL | you know The Guardian doesn't actually govern the UK, right? | 02:50 |
| RougeR | i feel it is | 02:50 |
| LjL | maybe the other way around... | 02:50 |
| RougeR | LjL, no fucing shit | 02:50 |
| RougeR | do you want me to get you the uk chief medical office saying that it is the strategy | 02:50 |
| LjL | you don't need to pepper every other word with a fuck tbh | 02:50 |
| RougeR | im brittish | 02:50 |
| RougeR | we do | 02:50 |
| LjL | sure, why not. unless you already have, in which case feel free to refer me to the backscroll | 02:50 |
| ubLIX | a strategy aims at an outcome; the desired outcome is herd immunity | 02:50 |
| RougeR | https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-13/uk-s-chief-scientific-adviser-tells-itv-news-he-hopes-government-s-approach-to-coronavirus-will-create-herd-immunity/ | 02:50 |
| ubLIX | the tactic chosen to implement the strategy is 'delay' | 02:51 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i'd say herd immunity is eventually going to happen regardless of strategy; the desired outcome is having herd immunity when the vulnerable people are mostly still alive | 02:51 |
| RougeR | sorry LjL | 02:51 |
| LjL | > Sir Patrick said it would depend on "what proportion of those who are asymptomatic and what proportion get very seriously ill" as to whether the UK had the resources to cope with 60% of the population being infected. | 02:55 |
| LjL | if only we had any data from other countries to make educated guesses on this... | 02:55 |
| RougeR | LjL, ugh im just | 02:56 |
| RougeR | im very reluctant to trust my government when they have spent the last 3 years lying to my face | 02:56 |
| RougeR | and every other government is doing the oppsoite | 02:56 |
| LjL | > "It doesn't mean we won't do it at some point and there may well be a time when you need to do it anyway for things like the resilience of the healthcare system and having to support events with ambulances which is why Scotland made the decision it made yesterday. | 02:57 |
| RougeR | that and we have incredibly poor social care systems and it feel these are economical rather than health based decisions | 02:57 |
| LjL | times when you have to test the resilience of the healthcare system... such as... one week from now? | 02:57 |
| RougeR | LjL, thats my point | 02:57 |
| RougeR | we are 1-2 weeks away from italy | 02:57 |
| RougeR | i cant see how getting there sooner is better | 02:57 |
| RougeR | hes estimating 60% infection | 02:58 |
| RougeR | thats 400k dead | 02:58 |
| RougeR | .... | 02:58 |
| LjL | > He said: "We're going to be asking people to be isolated for long periods of time. And that in itself comes with risks and hazards in terms of their own health from other things. "So doing this at the right time becomes quite important and you need to do it as the numbers increase and do it quickly and effectively at that point." | 02:58 |
| LjL | i can sort of buy this part, tbh | 02:58 |
| RougeR | LjL, i buy it | 02:58 |
| RougeR | but i also dont feel 1-2 weeks makes a difference | 02:59 |
| RougeR | but it does if they want more to be infected to get hear immunity | 02:59 |
| RougeR | heard | 02:59 |
| LjL | herd | 02:59 |
| Zalyssa | herd* | 02:59 |
| RougeR | that | 02:59 |
| RougeR | herd* | 02:59 |
| RougeR | sorry on my phone | 02:59 |
| LjL | but yeah, if he's thinking like, this will be done in a month or two | 02:59 |
| LjL | he's just mistaken on how the events are inevitably going to unfold | 02:59 |
| RougeR | LjL, honestly i dont know | 02:59 |
| RougeR | i just know its at odds with everyone else | 03:00 |
| RougeR | and i dont trust them | 03:00 |
| RougeR | if they release their modelling and show their reasoning i might begin too | 03:00 |
| RougeR | but this heard immunity news is new | 03:00 |
| LjL | i'll agree with you i am very skeptical with this view of herd immunity and achievement of it in time | 03:01 |
| RougeR | LjL, i hope im wrong | 03:01 |
| RougeR | well | 03:01 |
| RougeR | sort of | 03:01 |
| RougeR | because if im wrong...then all the other countries are wrong | 03:01 |
| RougeR | and more will die | 03:01 |
| RougeR | if im right, then the uk is wrong...and many in uk will die | 03:01 |
| LjL | well i'm in italy and our approach is being different, but i hope i'm wrong about being in italy, i hope tomorrow i wake up and realize i actually live in another country, because the situation here is pretty hopeless | 03:01 |
| tinwhiskers | ubLIX: OK, that kinda takes care of the graph problem. Thanks for letting me know. | 03:01 |
| LjL | my point being, it's not like Italy is being "right" | 03:02 |
| RougeR | LjL, true | 03:02 |
| LjL | and other countries are adopting, for now, blander approaches than Italy | 03:02 |
| RougeR | honestly time will tell | 03:02 |
| ubLIX | tinwhiskers: i believe it was LjL who pointed that out to you | 03:02 |
| LjL | with the exception of Spain, which is now ramping it up | 03:02 |
| RougeR | what is needed now is more transparency | 03:02 |
| tinwhiskers | oh | 03:02 |
| RougeR | the UK is very good at hiding its actions | 03:02 |
| tinwhiskers | oh yeah | 03:02 |
| RougeR | as i said, we have been lied to for 3 years+ | 03:02 |
| RougeR | excuse me for being a skeptic | 03:02 |
| RougeR | i have little to no faith in the government day to day | 03:03 |
| RougeR | but i hope they are right in this case | 03:03 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i'm probably a pain, but now the countries are no longer listed in an order that makes any sense to me | 03:04 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: to be fair, they are saying out loud that it is critical that the most vulnerable are isolated for safety while all this wunderherdimmunity is being cultivated | 03:05 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yes, that's why I said kinda. Just looking into that. JH has added a blank column, and the country sorting is done on the most recent value so it's outta whack. I need to put in a workaround for that | 03:05 |
| ubLIX | i guess they think this way they can eat their cake and yet still have it (protect the economy AND defeat the virus) | 03:05 |
| ubLIX | risky move, but we'll see | 03:05 |
| LjL | ubLIX, yes but you get people who are 70+ to understand they need to stay home without the government telling them they HAVE to by law (and even then) | 03:06 |
| LjL | ubLIX, it's also risky because i don't think it's to be taken so much for granted that younger people without risk factors will mostly just be fine after getting this | 03:07 |
| ubLIX | they are sailing three sheets to the wind | 03:07 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, the thing is | 03:07 |
| RougeR | its impractical | 03:07 |
| LjL | for now i'm just paranoid thinking of long-term effects that haven't been shown, but i was also paranoid when i was telling my parents we should prepare for a pandemic, apparently | 03:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 02:02 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: South Korea adds 107 new cases, Trump voices support for response deal → https://is.gd/P09YeY | 03:07 |
| RougeR | because of austerity much of the UK is in shared housing | 03:07 |
| RougeR | it works in theory not in practice | 03:07 |
| RougeR | im living with my parents again due to poor mental health care and a brutal housing market | 03:08 |
| RougeR | many people under 30 live with parents | 03:08 |
| RougeR | its something like 20% of under 30s | 03:08 |
| slash_ | smart | 03:09 |
| slash_ | but at the same time it's pretty bad it's necessary | 03:09 |
| ubLIX | yes, RougeR, relying on the incumbent tories understanding the true pitch of austerity's effects is a bit of a stretch | 03:09 |
| RougeR | exactly | 03:09 |
| RougeR | i agree this heard theory might work in theory | 03:09 |
| LjL | i bet that percentage is like... 60% in italy | 03:09 |
| RougeR | byut in practicer. its very difficult | 03:09 |
| ubLIX | although it is possible to argue the hardships are neglectful, or by design | 03:09 |
| LjL | Dec 18, 2018 - 67 percent of Italians aged between 18-34 live with their parents, the ... | 03:10 |
| LjL | i was close | 03:10 |
| RougeR | The ONS said 32% of all males aged 20-34 are now living with their parents, compared with 26% in 1999, with most of the increase occurring since the financial crisis in 2007-08. | 03:10 |
| slash_ | the only way out I see, is to save like crazy RougeR | 03:10 |
| RougeR | slash_, in what respect | 03:10 |
| RougeR | for a house? | 03:10 |
| slash_ | yeah also | 03:11 |
| slash_ | but in general | 03:11 |
| RougeR | i mean thats not my issue tbh | 03:11 |
| RougeR | so i work in tech | 03:11 |
| slash_ | can't rely on the government to change | 03:11 |
| RougeR | but i keep having to drop out for health | 03:11 |
| RougeR | im currently studying | 03:11 |
| RougeR | my parents are well off enough to give me most of a deposit | 03:11 |
| RougeR | but i dont want to buy in the uk due to brexit | 03:11 |
| RougeR | house prices are going to drop by 15% next year | 03:12 |
| slash_ | well | 03:12 |
| RougeR | im relatively lucky, but i try to not rely on my parents at all | 03:12 |
| RougeR | last year 1/5th of my salary went on medical bills | 03:12 |
| slash_ | do not focus on house price imo | 03:12 |
| RougeR | slash_, fair point | 03:12 |
| LjL | RougeR, ubLIX: seems relevant https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETCEoQLU0AA2S6x?format=png&name=900x900 | 03:12 |
| ubLIX | medical bills in the UK? | 03:13 |
| slash_ | if you have a place where you want to live longterm, it only matters if you can afford it and if you like it | 03:13 |
| RougeR | LjL, haha trolley problem super relevant right now | 03:13 |
| RougeR | slash_, i agree | 03:13 |
| RougeR | but the changes in the UK make me not want to live there | 03:13 |
| RougeR | ive lost my right to live and work in 28 countries | 03:13 |
| skyofdust | Whoa | 03:14 |
| RougeR | the economy will be fucked | 03:14 |
| slash_ | RougeR house price only matters when youre selling or buying | 03:14 |
| RougeR | slash_, i agree | 03:14 |
| LjL | all 28 are effecting changes that make people not want to live there, if it's any comfort | 03:14 |
| RougeR | and again ive thought it through | 03:14 |
| RougeR | but brexit is going to affect us for decades | 03:14 |
| ubLIX | LjL: hm | 03:14 |
| RougeR | if im going to buy | 03:14 |
| RougeR | ill buy after brexit | 03:14 |
| RougeR | because ill have a large cash sum | 03:14 |
| slash_ | RougeR yeah it's a shame.. | 03:14 |
| RougeR | i do get what you are saying honestly | 03:15 |
| RougeR | ive had to confront that im buying a home | 03:15 |
| RougeR | not a house | 03:15 |
| RougeR | i hope you understand partly why im so distrustful of this ncov herd immunity is because for 3-4 years my gov has lied to me | 03:15 |
| skyofdust | Good, the changes to my tts script so that consecutive messages don't get the nick and channel mentioned again worked. | 03:15 |
| slash_ | RougeR are interest rates low in the UK too atm? | 03:16 |
| RougeR | for 10 years they have destroyed our health servicer | 03:16 |
| RougeR | slash_, very | 03:16 |
| RougeR | 0.5% | 03:16 |
| RougeR | lowest of all time | 03:16 |
| LjL | skyofdust, that sounds like it should help, but if it's not enough let me know and i'll kick him until he stops pressing enter | 03:16 |
| slash_ | RougeR you can get like 30 year mortgage for 1.7% here, which is INSANE | 03:16 |
| RougeR | my parents are offering to help me buy with a lot of cash though from downsizing and i dont know where im moving to yet | 03:16 |
| RougeR | but yeah if you want a big mortgage best to get it before brexit | 03:17 |
| slash_ | 30 year fixed that is | 03:17 |
| RougeR | while interest is low | 03:17 |
| RougeR | if you are a large cash buyer, best to wait | 03:17 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: wow. where is that? | 03:17 |
| RougeR | slash_, where my parents live | 03:17 |
| RougeR | and where i was living | 03:17 |
| RougeR | average house/flat is £250k | 03:17 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers, netherlands, but most of western EU is like this | 03:17 |
| RougeR | rent £900 | 03:17 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: you can always buy nowish and rent it out when you move abroad later | 03:17 |
| RougeR | its insnae | 03:17 |
| tinwhiskers | I see. Nice | 03:17 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, true | 03:18 |
| RougeR | but honestly im not ready atm personally | 03:18 |
| RougeR | i appreciate the advice though | 03:18 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers in Denmark some older mortgages get negative interest rate lol | 03:18 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: ok, that should fix the country sorting now | 03:18 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: but if we're going to have a recession (we are, aren't we?) then perhaps wait for dip in prices | 03:18 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, well UK will no doubt | 03:18 |
| skyofdust | LjL, Yeah, it shoudn't be a problem, it now works just as I want it, thanks haha he seems pretty oblivious about it. | 03:18 |
| RougeR | brexit will destroy us | 03:19 |
| RougeR | add coronavirus | 03:19 |
| RougeR | .... | 03:19 |
| RougeR | it makes me want to move to Netherlands or canada | 03:19 |
| LjL | slash_, unrelated but simply triggered the though, have you not been thinking the eastern part of the EU has been deafeningly silent? like, do they even have cases? if not, why not? they've kind of all closed borders by now but with all the schengen, in theory, they should be full of cases already | 03:19 |
| RougeR | im skilled worker | 03:19 |
| slash_ | coronavirus will hit us all RougeR, so in that regard you won't be really worse off than the rest of us I think | 03:19 |
| RougeR | slash_, i agree | 03:19 |
| RougeR | but its the brexit, coronavirus double whammy | 03:20 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, for now i'm still afraid nope | 03:20 |
| slash_ | LjL yeah not sure... maybe they have less travel? But still the numbers seem very low I agree | 03:20 |
| tinwhiskers | Oops, never copied dev to prod. Try now. | 03:20 |
| RougeR | its super weird here | 03:20 |
| RougeR | im living in jersey again with folks | 03:20 |
| RougeR | was mainland uk | 03:20 |
| RougeR | so jersey and guernsey are two main island in channel islands | 03:21 |
| slash_ | RougeR it's gonna be a big recession for all of us | 03:21 |
| RougeR | independant govs | 03:21 |
| RougeR | guensey is advocating social distancing and advising against all non essential travel | 03:21 |
| slash_ | RougeR might not be a bad idea to invest in index funds long term atm | 03:21 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, yep, that put italy back to where it belongs, where it hasn't been since roman times: the top! now we only have to beat china, shouldn't take long | 03:21 |
| RougeR | jersey is saying carry on as normasl | 03:21 |
| RougeR | slash_, mmmm yeah maybe | 03:21 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 03:21 |
| RougeR | im just glad im in a recession proof industry | 03:21 |
| RougeR | LjL, italy will be ahead of the curve | 03:22 |
| slash_ | same for me | 03:22 |
| slash_ | but coronavirus hurts | 03:22 |
| RougeR | i mean 100000s dead | 03:22 |
| RougeR | but ahead! | 03:22 |
| slash_ | because we need advisor to client appointments | 03:22 |
| RougeR | imma watch its always sunnt | 03:22 |
| slash_ | and people are become very hesitant to that | 03:22 |
| RougeR | then bed | 03:22 |
| RougeR | maybe "the gang gets quarantined" | 03:23 |
| RougeR | its a good ep | 03:23 |
| RougeR | the gang realise they arnt ill, they are having alcohol withdrawals | 03:23 |
| RougeR | thats me and europe | 03:23 |
| slash_ | *the gang crashed the world economy after undercooking a bat* | 03:23 |
| RougeR | heheheheh | 03:23 |
| slash_ | but really | 03:23 |
| RougeR | hey guys, so i found this super neat bat meat me n frank are guna sell | 03:24 |
| slash_ | some animal transmitted this disease to 1 person | 03:24 |
| RougeR | chinese always sunny | 03:24 |
| slash_ | and now we are in a crisis | 03:24 |
| slash_ | what the fuck | 03:24 |
| RougeR | slash_, its worryuing | 03:24 |
| RougeR | you know how so many movies focus on a virus killing man kind | 03:24 |
| RougeR | nah | 03:24 |
| slash_ | RougeR one damn animal, and we are on our knees basically | 03:24 |
| RougeR | just get some slightly agressive cold/flu | 03:24 |
| RougeR | and release it | 03:24 |
| slash_ | makes you think | 03:24 |
| RougeR | doesnt need anthreax | 03:24 |
| RougeR | anthrax is baby shiot | 03:25 |
| RougeR | anthrax kills quick | 03:25 |
| slash_ | yeah | 03:25 |
| RougeR | you want slow and infectious | 03:25 |
| slash_ | quick killing viruses are better | 03:25 |
| RougeR | and a worrying hard to see death rate | 03:25 |
| RougeR | slash_, yep | 03:25 |
| RougeR | ...now if ncov19 mutated late into the gamer | 03:25 |
| slash_ | because you cant spread a disease that much if youre dead :x | 03:25 |
| RougeR | ...thats game over | 03:25 |
| RougeR | unlikely | 03:25 |
| RougeR | slash_, | 03:26 |
| slash_ | but really, 1 thing goes wrong in some unhygienic market in China, and now we have a global crisis | 03:26 |
| RougeR | http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history/2016/07/is_2016_the_worst_year_in_history.html?via=gdpr-consent | 03:26 |
| RougeR | ahahahahahaha | 03:26 |
| RougeR | > Is 2016 the Worst Year in History? | 03:26 |
| slash_ | the world economy is fragile as fuck | 03:26 |
| RougeR | china willcome out on top | 03:27 |
| RougeR | i reckon | 03:27 |
| LjL | that would have seemed like a bit of a stretch even in 2016 | 03:27 |
| RougeR | recover early | 03:27 |
| LjL | RougeR, we sure will owe them a whole lot of money | 03:27 |
| RougeR | https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/28/opinion/2016-worst-year-ever.html | 03:27 |
| spybert | RougeR: A lot of Americans think so. We got a president most of us voted against | 03:27 |
| slash_ | so far, 2020 feels so freaking long | 03:27 |
| RougeR | LjL, they can extort the fuck out of us | 03:27 |
| RougeR | spybert, same in uk | 03:27 |
| RougeR | soo when is trump postponign elctions | 03:28 |
| RougeR | when we calling it? | 03:28 |
| slash_ | iran shooting down a passenger plane seems like years ago... | 03:28 |
| LjL | slash_, and we don't even get to call it COVID-20 | 03:28 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 03:28 |
| RougeR | i wish it was covid 20 | 03:28 |
| RougeR | covid19 annoys me | 03:28 |
| RougeR | idk why | 03:28 |
| spybert | RougeR: prime number | 03:28 |
| RougeR | its odd | 03:28 |
| RougeR | huehue | 03:28 |
| RougeR | haha | 03:28 |
| LjL | RougeR, well you're lucky we can knock it out with alcohol | 03:28 |
| LjL | if i were COVID 21... | 03:28 |
| RougeR | you would be bust if you were covid 22 | 03:28 |
| RougeR | hahahahahaha | 03:28 |
| LjL | maybe they'd card it, but it'd come out unscathed | 03:28 |
| slash_ | LjL we are overdue for an influenza pandemic too... :P | 03:28 |
| RougeR | sorryu | 03:29 |
| RougeR | covid 22...bust | 03:29 |
| RougeR | get it | 03:29 |
| RougeR | no | 03:29 |
| RougeR | bad joke | 03:29 |
| LjL | well, yeah, no | 03:29 |
| RougeR | blackjack joke | 03:30 |
| LjL | slash_, i was asked to listen to a podcast that would reassure me, but it turns out somehow that a bottom line of "this isn't all that bad, really, it could eaasily be something with 60% mortality instead" isn't all that reassuring | 03:30 |
| tinwhiskers | :-/ | 03:30 |
| slash_ | LjL coronavirus is unexpected, influenza is still the biggest risk for a pandemic as it has always been | 03:30 |
| RougeR | LjL, i mean true | 03:30 |
| RougeR | but if it was | 03:30 |
| RougeR | surely people would die quickr n spread less | 03:30 |
| LjL | not necessarily | 03:30 |
| RougeR | yeah i know | 03:30 |
| RougeR | they are right | 03:30 |
| RougeR | it could be way higher mortality | 03:31 |
| RougeR | easier to spread | 03:31 |
| slash_ | LjL a virus with 60% mortality won't get that far usually | 03:31 |
| RougeR | or high mutation | 03:31 |
| RougeR | this will teach the world a lot | 03:31 |
| slash_ | LjL if the virus kills too fast it won't spread | 03:31 |
| RougeR | slash_, gotta go low mortality spread far | 03:31 |
| LjL | slash_, if it leaves you alive long enough to spread it a lot... | 03:31 |
| RougeR | then rapid mutate | 03:31 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: what about long incubation time, easily spreads, highly lethal? | 03:31 |
| LjL | ↑ | 03:31 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, promising | 03:31 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: Campbell quoted the official policy (in a tone of deference): "Social distancing around the vulnerable.. later, but not yet" but then went on to say "but I'm telling my parents to stay in and not have visitors now". It does actually seem there is something fucky about Campbell's tone today. | 03:31 |
| slash_ | LjL like ebola kills 90%, it's very bad, but it is very unlikely to become pandemic | 03:31 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, i agree | 03:32 |
| RougeR | im not being tinfoil on it | 03:32 |
| RougeR | it just seemed very at odds | 03:32 |
| RougeR | maybe he thinks the game has changed due to 10x infection numbers | 03:32 |
| RougeR | but it just didnt fit | 03:32 |
| LjL | slash_, it is also very much not contagious. i mean, it obviously is, but it isn't even comparable to this in ease of transmission | 03:32 |
| RougeR | im not blaming him | 03:32 |
| slash_ | LjL yeah, coronavirus does this well, spread far and the mortality rate is fairly low, it also takes a while for symptoms to get bad | 03:32 |
| RougeR | im not saying he is right or wrong | 03:32 |
| RougeR | but it just did not fit his narrative | 03:32 |
| ubLIX | hmm, RougeR, but the "later but not yet" idea is mystifying | 03:33 |
| LjL | slash_, well, it could be similar, except with the mortality rate being fairly high | 03:33 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, he also used first nmame terms for chief medical officers | 03:33 |
| RougeR | that might be me reading too much into it | 03:33 |
| slash_ | LjL ebola is very contagious, but you literally are in bed starting to die the next day | 03:33 |
| RougeR | but it seemed very personal | 03:33 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: "later but not yet" is just to say "go ahead and let your elders roll the dice with their CFR" | 03:33 |
| ubLIX | very odd | 03:33 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, mmm | 03:33 |
| RougeR | idk | 03:33 |
| RougeR | UK might be right | 03:34 |
| RougeR | but if they are | 03:34 |
| RougeR | then every other country is wrong | 03:34 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: is ebola took 2 weeks to incubate and you could spread it for the last week of incubation the high lethality wouldn't be selected against. | 03:34 |
| tinwhiskers | *if | 03:34 |
| RougeR | and wejust so happen to have awful social care systems | 03:34 |
| RougeR | ... | 03:34 |
| LjL | slash_, ebola puts health workers at risk, but | 03:34 |
| LjL | It is believed that between people, Ebola disease spreads only by direct contact with the blood or other body fluids of a person who has developed symptoms of the disease.[51][52][53] Body fluids that may contain Ebola viruses include saliva, mucus, vomit, feces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen.[4][38] The WHO states that only people who are very sick are able to spread Ebola disease in saliva | 03:34 |
| tinwhiskers | fortunately we haven't had the "perfect storm" disease yet. | 03:34 |
| RougeR | people in the UK cannot survive long periods self isolation | 03:34 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers slow incubation and high mortality is the killer combo | 03:34 |
| RougeR | finacially we will die | 03:34 |
| LjL | this doesn't sound "very contagious" in any way that SARS-COV-2 is | 03:34 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: remember he is a retired nurse. he might find it difficult to contradict the apogees of the medical profession | 03:35 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: it also needs to spread before symptoms | 03:35 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, i totally agree | 03:35 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers especially when it can spread before symptoms | 03:35 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 03:35 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers yes | 03:35 |
| RougeR | he might be toeing the line and feels one good message is better than 7 dispirate ones | 03:35 |
| RougeR | even if its not 100% right | 03:35 |
| RougeR | i dont blame hime | 03:35 |
| RougeR | but again, its an odd turn | 03:35 |
| RougeR | id like an explanation | 03:36 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: but on this point, on the personal level at least, he immediately disagreed with the "not yet" part | 03:36 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, mm | 03:36 |
| ubLIX | but with unusual deference | 03:36 |
| RougeR | thats true | 03:36 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers I am damn glad coronavirus is not this terrible! | 03:36 |
| RougeR | maybe i need to rewatch and read between the lines | 03:36 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah! | 03:36 |
| slash_ | that would be a nightmare | 03:36 |
| LjL | so are we taking bets on him having been threatened by government agents yet? | 03:36 |
| tinwhiskers | I'll bet on that. no | 03:37 |
| RougeR | Dr. Campbell - blink twice if Dominic Cummings is holding you hostage | 03:37 |
| LjL | okay who bets against tinwhiskers | 03:37 |
| ubLIX | LjL: threatened? i wouldn't be surprised if he'd been briefed | 03:37 |
| tinwhiskers | but he might have been threatened over his job | 03:37 |
| ubLIX | for some value of 'briefed' | 03:37 |
| RougeR | LjL, coercred | 03:37 |
| RougeR | or encouraged | 03:37 |
| RougeR | idk | 03:37 |
| RougeR | its just odd | 03:37 |
| LjL | ubLIX, "do what we say, or your remaining life will be brief" | 03:37 |
| ubLIX | 'asked to stay on message' | 03:37 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers viruses mutate, they can become worse, it is a neverending fight | 03:37 |
| RougeR | im no tinfoil | 03:37 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, exactly | 03:37 |
| RougeR | i really am not at all a tinfoil | 03:38 |
| RougeR | it just wasnt what i expected | 03:38 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers a new influenza, corona, whatever comes next, we will have to fight it | 03:38 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: yeah, although they tend to mutate into more benign forms | 03:38 |
| ubLIX | :p | 03:38 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, | 03:38 |
| slash_ | in general yeah, because those survive longer | 03:38 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 03:38 |
| RougeR | return (covid_19); | 03:38 |
| LjL | they tend to mutate into whatever makes them reproduce more. that's often more benign forms, but there are other local optima | 03:39 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yes | 03:39 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, ill be suprised what he puts out tommortow | 03:39 |
| RougeR | and if he puts a video out | 03:39 |
| slash_ | yeah but if they need a human host they will become generally less lethal, as it makes them spread more | 03:39 |
| tinwhiskers | generally but not always | 03:39 |
| slash_ | true | 03:39 |
| ubLIX | he said he wants to put out a video discussing the modelling for community spread numbers | 03:39 |
| slash_ | there is no guarantee | 03:39 |
| LjL | i am not at ease with nicknaming this "corona". what if we have a worse pandemic caused by *another* coronavirus? then naming will be a pain! | 03:40 |
| ubLIX | "but now now, i'll do that later", he said | 03:40 |
| slash_ | LjL this is already the third coronavirus epidemic :p | 03:40 |
| tinwhiskers | I wonder if it will hurt sales of Corona beer | 03:40 |
| slash_ | LjL SARS, MERS now COVID-19 | 03:40 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, there was something silly about them donating money to the WHO in exchange for it being called uuuh Someotherbeervirus | 03:40 |
| slash_ | coronavirus is a bad name, as it refers to a family of viruses | 03:41 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. heh | 03:41 |
| LjL | slash_, also whatever ended up being one common cold virus | 03:41 |
| RougeR | slash_, agreed | 03:41 |
| RougeR | i wish a better name had stuck | 03:41 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, it has | 03:41 |
| slash_ | LjL common cold is caused by influenza, rhinoviruses, other coronaviruses (none of the big ones), and a few others | 03:41 |
| slash_ | it's more of a set of symptoms | 03:42 |
| tinwhiskers | r'oh roh | 03:42 |
| RougeR | im good | 03:42 |
| LjL | slash_, yes, i'm referring to the coronavirus. i think it's just one anyway. | 03:42 |
| RougeR | had it for ages | 03:42 |
| RougeR | very mild | 03:42 |
| RougeR | im waiting for someone here to have it | 03:42 |
| RougeR | and live report it | 03:42 |
| LjL | slash_, it was not unlikely a somewhat serious (if unrecognized) pandemic at some point, and mutated to become a common cold virus over time | 03:42 |
| slash_ | LjL other coronaviruses already cause around 30% of all common colds, but those variants are very mild generally | 03:43 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, like spanish flu just became an annual flu | 03:43 |
| adventurer | https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/there-is-another-virus-we-have-to-deal-with-says-vaccine-expert-ian-frazer-20200312-p549a4.html | 03:43 |
| slash_ | H1N1 is also still circulating yearly | 03:43 |
| slash_ | causing up to 70% of severe flu cases every year | 03:44 |
| slash_ | but we have vaccines and antivirals | 03:44 |
| slash_ | for that one | 03:44 |
| RougeR | ^ | 03:44 |
| RougeR | "ItS JuSt ThE FlU | 03:45 |
| RougeR | " | 03:45 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, | 03:47 |
| LjL | adventurer, so he's saying that because it "only" creates little "challenges" for "the healthcare system and the aged care sector" (as in: Lombardy's entire hospital system being overhauled in a week and converted to almost exclusively treat an overwhelming amount of COVID patients, too many of which need ICU, and the elderly very disproportionately dying from it), we should inject ourselves with a dose of common sense and avoid locking down towns? | 03:47 |
| RougeR | rewatch the end of the video | 03:47 |
| RougeR | its very odd | 03:47 |
| LjL | i mean, he might be right, if we were psychopaths, i think | 03:47 |
| RougeR | i think he might be being caslled up | 03:47 |
| ubLIX | caslled? | 03:48 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah, I thought that was pretty unhelpful too | 03:48 |
| LjL | some of us are but probably the majority doesn't want to see half of the people above 70 dying, despite the fact hey they'd have died anyway at some point | 03:48 |
| RougeR | "50% of the population get it, 1% of that....50%...could err...could die" | 03:48 |
| RougeR | i wouldnt be surprised if its his lastr video and he is recalled to nsh | 03:49 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +22 cases (now 145939), +12 deaths (now 5437), +1327 recoveries (now 72568) 🔶 China: +17 cases (now 80962), +9 deaths (now 3189), +1349 recoveries (now 65543) 🔸 Andorra: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 Argentina: +3 cases (now 34) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +26 cases (now 91) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +15 cases (now 35) 🔸 South Australia, Australia: +7 cases (now 16), +1 recoveries (now 3) 🔸 Tasmania, Aus | 03:49 |
| RougeR | he just cuts | 03:49 |
| tinwhiskers | the other 50% will get it in subsequent years though but they may have a chance to get a vaccine | 03:49 |
| RougeR | no end of video | 03:49 |
| LjL | "and if you're 80, you'll like, almost certainly die, at least if the healthcare system is way to full to even try treating you" | 03:49 |
| RougeR | just cuts | 03:49 |
| ubLIX | ok but. ca oooh called up | 03:49 |
| RougeR | yeah they are recuiting retired nhs staff... | 03:49 |
| RougeR | i wonder if he got aphone call | 03:49 |
| RougeR | nothing sinister | 03:49 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: he cuts all his videos sharply like that | 03:49 |
| RougeR | but a phone call | 03:49 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, not really | 03:49 |
| RougeR | he often puts slides | 03:50 |
| RougeR | or says bye | 03:50 |
| RougeR | i might be wrong | 03:50 |
| RougeR | but looking at it again | 03:50 |
| RougeR | its abrupt | 03:50 |
| RougeR | and his language is....neutral | 03:50 |
| ubLIX | ok, not all. but a lot of them are like this | 03:50 |
| RougeR | his inflection elss so | 03:50 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, hey i might be wrong | 03:50 |
| RougeR | he puts out a video everyday | 03:50 |
| RougeR | if he doesnt put one out tommorow.... | 03:50 |
| RougeR | i am totally speculating | 03:51 |
| RougeR | im just very confused | 03:51 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, im glad the media has picked up on UKs plan | 03:51 |
| RougeR | and it will be scrutinized now im sure | 03:51 |
| adventurer | I don't know...didn't someone stab another person over hand sanitizer or toilet paper...in some places it seems to be getting a little crazy. | 03:52 |
| tinwhiskers | people be crazy | 03:53 |
| ubLIX | dude. RougeR. he is a nurse. reflecting on the fact that ~325,000 people are about to die. you don't get to say that out loud. as a natural nurse. without suppressing emotion to do it. | 03:53 |
| tinwhiskers | people have had bigger fights over my little pony | 03:53 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, i dont disagree | 03:53 |
| RougeR | sorry not being rude | 03:53 |
| RougeR | but what are you trying to say | 03:54 |
| RougeR | just that hes human> | 03:54 |
| LjL | adventurer, you think it wouldn't get crazy that way (as in: individuals acting like idiots or even criminals) if the state had taken an alternate approach? | 03:54 |
| RougeR | and we are seeing real emotion | 03:54 |
| RougeR | and a sober reality on his reaction | 03:54 |
| RougeR | thats totally reasonable | 03:54 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: just that it's odd that you find it odd that his tone is neutral | 03:54 |
| ubLIX | tone/language whatever | 03:55 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, i guess im so used to see him calm and somber | 03:55 |
| LjL | you know for every story about stabbings over hand sanitizers, there are about 100000 people just queuing and hoping they can get one bottle of hand saniizer too, and if they can't, they just shrug and go home and hope they have better luck next time | 03:55 |
| RougeR | i think i might be reading too much into it | 03:55 |
| RougeR | ubLIX, im just trying to work it out | 03:55 |
| RougeR | and i might be over analysing | 03:55 |
| RougeR | im not being callous | 03:55 |
| adventurer | yes true LjL | 03:55 |
| adventurer | that's what most people do | 03:55 |
| RougeR | we got 5 from a group buy thing | 03:56 |
| RougeR | luckily | 03:56 |
| RougeR | not seen a single bottle since | 03:56 |
| RougeR | trying to ration them between 3 of us for a few months | 03:56 |
| RougeR | handwashing wherever we can | 03:56 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: do you have any info on what is happening there with older folk and ventilators. There was some hint that old people would not get those once the health system was overloaded. How does that translate to a death rate in over 80's? | 03:56 |
| LjL | our pharmacies make hand sanitizer... they sometimes have trouble finding actual bottles for them, which is a bit mindboggling in itself, but they make it, and it works, and it's really not such a huge issue | 03:56 |
| RougeR | nice we dont have tat | 03:57 |
| contingo | do you still have returnable milk bottles | 03:57 |
| tinwhiskers | if the death rate in over 80's with ventilators is 15% then, what 30-40% of people over 80 who become infected will die once the hospitals are overloaded? | 03:57 |
| ubLIX | RougeR: remember that he is quite old. and he is english (sense of duty to understatement). remember that he apologised in a previous video for becoming emotional. i had to go back to the video in question to figure out what he was on about. took me ages to find a moment that could qualify as 'emotional'. habit of speech | 03:57 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, they are now releasing epidemiological data every tuesday and friday, and also simpler charts on a daily basis, which should include the age cohorts of those who die. it lags behind "realtime" case counts a bit. i haven't looked at today's report, partly because i kind of... don't want to... but i can probably point you to where to find them | 03:58 |
| tinwhiskers | ok | 03:58 |
| berndj | oh my god, i just realized, my city hosted a cycle race on 8 march that attracts a heavy contingent of cyclists from all over | 04:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 02:47 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: South Korea adds 107 new cases, China confirms 11 more infections → https://is.gd/P09YeY | 04:02 |
| LjL | Timvde, uhm, the daily infographic seems to be quite annoyingly overwritten on a daily basis. you can see it at https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19-infografica_eng.pdf but i think you could see it for the couple of days before at the very same URL... which really doesn't help with spotting trends | 04:03 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, even | 04:03 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i'll try to download it every day i guess | 04:03 |
| tinwhiskers | ooooh it's even in english | 04:04 |
| LjL | yes aren't we advanced | 04:04 |
| LjL | maybe one of these days we'll even have ventilators for sick people | 04:04 |
| tinwhiskers | Ouch. 30% of people in general are getting severe symptoms (which I understand to mean without hospital treatment they would probably die). So I guess we can wildly guess that in over 80's it's going to be something like 40-50%. If hospitals stop treating over 80's when they become overloaded that's pretty dire. | 04:08 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, there's been rumors of it being over 70's or even over 65's... while officially they keep stressing it's patients with comorbidities that are unlikely to get out of ICU alive anyway | 04:09 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. right | 04:09 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, it probably just varies by hospital, even within Lombardy there are areas much more severely affected. i understand they avoid moving patients around too much, and patients brought to *other* regions are practically none | 04:10 |
| LjL | if anything they've moved some non-COVID patients to other regions, but it's still small numbers | 04:10 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, also, about the amount of people with severe symptoms, you can get a glimpse of the issue with Lombardy from your own data | 04:11 |
| LjL | %cases Italy | 04:11 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 17660 cases, 1266 deaths (7.2% of cases), 1439 recoveries as of March 13, 22:21Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 04:11 |
| LjL | %cases Lombardy | 04:11 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Sorry, Lombardy not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 04:11 |
| LjL | %cases Lombardia | 04:11 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Lombardia, Italy, there are 9820 cases, 890 deaths (9.1% of cases), 1198 recoveries as of March 13, 16:00Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardia for time series data. | 04:11 |
| LjL | now 9.1% is higher than 7.2%, which is pretty high itself | 04:11 |
| LjL | but we can put that down to "not enough tested", as usual | 04:12 |
| LjL | but i have some more broken down data | 04:12 |
| RougeR | https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840 | 04:12 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/ "Terapie intensive e ricoveri" this shows the proportion of people hospitalized, in ICU, and in self-isolation at home | 04:12 |
| RougeR | yeah im fairly convinced at this point | 04:12 |
| RougeR | UK is fucking us | 04:13 |
| LjL | it is... i must say... better than it was in the previous days (in Lombardy), sort of | 04:13 |
| LjL | but still, the old tale of "80% only get mild symptoms" doesn't seem to be reflected by those numbers, unless they just put people with mild symptoms into hospitals for fun | 04:13 |
| LjL | and compare those ratios with Veneto for example | 04:14 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeR: can't really parse - UK is fucking USA or the plural first person pronoun? | 04:14 |
| LjL | Lombardy is just... not okay | 04:14 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, | 04:14 |
| RougeR | haha | 04:14 |
| RougeR | would be US fucking UK | 04:14 |
| RougeR | but no | 04:14 |
| RougeR | i mean; the UK is fucking its citizens | 04:14 |
| commandocrypto[m | i mean... both are kinda true if ur talking about this herd immunity malarky | 04:14 |
| commandocrypto[m | ah yes we are fucked according to the current plan | 04:15 |
| tinwhiskers | I think I'm going to add a doubling time graph onto offloop. fructose's graph was food for thought. | 04:15 |
| RougeR | oooooh | 04:16 |
| commandocrypto[m | i have access to some confidential information which was kinda passed from person to person to lowly me at some point over the last day or two - i won't say anything because it's not necessary - look at the response that trump gave to the Sky News journo | 04:16 |
| RougeR | just seen the G word tossed about | 04:16 |
| RougeR | thats a first | 04:16 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, ? | 04:16 |
| commandocrypto[m | she asked one question basically about how he had hinted that UK would be put on the naughty list | 04:17 |
| RougeR | im hearing Genocide | 04:17 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, yeah i saw that | 04:17 |
| RougeR | is UK, US going same strat? | 04:17 |
| commandocrypto[m | right so watch carefully his response | 04:17 |
| commandocrypto[m | you can work out what's been shared with me from that. basically ... *if* the COBRA meeting this week was as simple as "herd immunity, end of" - he wouldn't be playing along | 04:18 |
| commandocrypto[m | i know you've probably heard a lot of trust the plan bullshit but ... it's possible there is a plan and you won't have to wait more than a week to see what it is and also why this bait about herd immunity was used as a canard to stop the UK from melting down before we even get to the starting line | 04:19 |
| LjL | i sense a netsplit | 04:21 |
| commandocrypto[m | like now | 04:21 |
| commandocrypto[m | ??? | 04:21 |
| LjL | yes, you may not be fully aware of it from Matrix, but, yeah | 04:22 |
| commandocrypto[m | or in context of what i'm saying and UK+USA vs sino canatard alliance | 04:22 |
| LjL | RougeR / RougeRR probably didn't see what you've said | 04:22 |
| LjL | no, in the context of IRC being made of servers that sometimes get disconnected from one another, taking their users with them | 04:22 |
| commandocrypto[m | ah that makes sense | 04:22 |
| commandocrypto[m | i really struggle on IRC guis - freenode masked at least one of my handles because of crazy ddos problems back in the day .... copes in antiquated jargon | 04:25 |
| commandocrypto[m | LjL: can u help me out if there's a netsplit domestically (i'm in the same country as him) - this is something that (1) i should know about and (2) i can investigate and (3) can talk to good friends and colleagues who can definitely do something about it | 04:26 |
| LjL | you can't really do anything about freenode servers splitting... it just happens, for a variety of reasons | 04:26 |
| commandocrypto[m | oh! ya sorry | 04:27 |
| LjL | if you look at joins and parts, although Matrix consolidates them together, you'll be seeing there's a few joins, which often change nicknames shortly after joining | 04:27 |
| LjL | those are people who got disconnected | 04:27 |
| commandocrypto[m | fuck i'm on edge about like ... IP range netsplitting | 04:27 |
| LjL | here it goes | 04:29 |
| commandocrypto[m | been talking about it a lot with frens all over - china, wether or not they've opened the pandora's box with biowarfare, chimeric hybridized new species and the psyop of the millenium, have definately created a new era of internet fragmentation | 04:29 |
| commandocrypto[m | if they do end up the first to emerge from this, MANY will credit their ability to (completely fuck with the essential nature of the internet | control the narrative way better than anyone else ) | 04:30 |
| Brainstormie | 🔶 Hubei, China: +4 cases (now 67790), +13 deaths (now 3075), +1390 recoveries (now 52943) 🔸 Andorra: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 Argentina: +3 cases (now 34) 🔸 Australia: +1 cases (now 200) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +27 cases (now 92) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +15 cases (now 35) 🔸 South Australia, Australia: +7 cases (now 16), +1 recoveries (now 3) 🔸 Tasmania, Australia: +2 cases (now 5) 🔸 Victoria, Austra | 04:30 |
| commandocrypto[m | LjL: i'm just speculating a little with my herbal tea before going to bed if you want me to go off wait until an AM rant with some coffee and a fag | 04:31 |
| skyofdust | commandocrypto[m that happened since all major social media companies were bought, it's not new and been happening for a while, there are trollcenters where people push agendas through trending topics and facebook groups. | 04:32 |
| skyofdust | And they've been dividing people for a while. | 04:32 |
| commandocrypto[m | trust me i probably know way too much about that | 04:33 |
| commandocrypto[m | i guess i'm just saying ... watching the videos come out of china all through january and then just stop sometime in feburary | 04:34 |
| commandocrypto[m | sure blueshare might be really powerful. but nothing more powerful than a dam that can just be turned off instantly | 04:34 |
| commandocrypto[m | it's still fucking with my head | 04:34 |
| Poon_ | Hello, How's it going on your side? Everyone is fine? | 04:35 |
| commandocrypto[m | that recent video of them screening on the motorways ... it's actually the first fresh video to some out for weeks. it's obviously chinese. it scares the fuck outta me even tho i was trained to do exactly that kinda shit | 04:35 |
| commandocrypto[m | but when it's for like... how to black bag a really bad person.... human trafficker or whatnot | 04:36 |
| commandocrypto[m | but this is just them trying to avoid herd immunity. literally just terrified of the bug inside the person | 04:36 |
| commandocrypto[m | but if you speak up you're called a racist - that is perfect inversion | 04:36 |
| commandocrypto[m | Poon_: woah iz oldschool Poon? | 04:37 |
| skyofdust | Poon There are few documented cases in my country, home testing campaigns for people who think they're infected just started, in a few days we'll see how bad it is in mx | 04:38 |
| luke-jr | why don't they allow people who think they're not infected, to be tested? | 04:40 |
| commandocrypto[m | Poon_: we're kinda discussing the UK generally. was anyone here the night before the COBRA meeting? when google maps briefly showed all motorways were shut, completely closed (not lane closures) | 04:40 |
| commandocrypto[m | LjL: you were here (holy fuck is that the real lukejr in here? ) right? | 04:41 |
| commandocrypto[m | anyways if ur on matrix, have a screenie | 04:43 |
| commandocrypto[m | my theory is this. there were two plans. execute a lockdown immediately. google was ready, the military wasn't. so they went with plan "B" - keep most of the people calm most of the time until they could do a proper lockdown | 04:44 |
| commandocrypto[m | tbh it's a pretty human way to go about it | 04:44 |
| commandocrypto[m | watch this fresh little training video straight outta china to figure out why. this is probably a training/propaganda video for the chinese police and military. and it's still amateur as fuck. and scary (especially to civvies) | 04:47 |
| commandocrypto[m | this shit is not easy to get right. especially when the smartest minds in the world have not yet figured out how much of a psyop this is. | 04:47 |
| commandocrypto[m | blackbagging all ur citizens with a fever when they have reason to believe this is all a hoax to curtail our freedoms is something you want to do elegantly | 04:47 |
| commandocrypto[m | i know mister metokur has covered those neck pole things already but ... FUCK the west needs to win this it would be such an antipattern if a country that is SOO oblivious little professional details. it doesn't matter if it's a safe way to handle someone who is resisting - feelsbadman.jpg | 04:53 |
| commandocrypto[m | we don't even treat animals like that over here because *aesthetics matter* | 04:53 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeR ubLIX and LjL - don't overthink Campbell censorship. he's been *very* conservative since the beginning. partially due to his nature and a lot of other factors (including all the calls from the home office since his videos blew up) | 04:58 |
| commandocrypto[m | aren't you glad that he's in damage control mode? i mean if i was him i would be downplaying everything and playing it calm without threats or rewards from Mr. Cummings and fellow sociopaths | 04:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:14 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Pentagon halts domestic travel, South Korea reports 107 new cases → https://is.gd/P09YeY | 05:20 |
| commandocrypto[m | that was fast! | 05:23 |
| commandocrypto[m | Alex Jones literally predicted domestic flights halted on this morning's show - but he reckoned we had a week or so first | 05:24 |
| commandocrypto[m | ah sorry just military ppl and their families for now - that makes sense they are probably gonna be needed | 05:26 |
| commandocrypto[m | italy is running out of soldiers just to run the ventilator factories at night | 05:26 |
| sneep | if you watch alex jones you should be banned from the internet | 05:27 |
| sneep | 12:40 < luke-jr> why don't they allow people who think they're not infected, to be tested? <-- if you test everyone you will get a vastly inflated number of cases due to false positives | 05:45 |
| commandocrypto[m | sneep: there is no should. i've watched 1 episode for each of the 3 minor happenings in the last 2 decades and ya i thought i'd check out half of his stream for this seeing as it's the real one | 05:51 |
| commandocrypto[m | the banning is real - glad at least you're (somewhat) aware | 05:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:42 UTC: Coronavirus pandemic prompts the big 3 cruise companies to suspend operations: All three major publicly-traded cruise companies have now suspended at least some operations as the COVID-19 pandemic sends waves through the travel industry. → https://is.gd/mHySjs | 05:54 |
| xrogaan | luke-jr: testing broadly is pointless once you know the disease is endemic. You want to screen people in order to *contain* the virus, at this stage we need to delay it. | 06:00 |
| xrogaan | Means that each individual will have to play a role, limit social interactions and so on. | 06:01 |
| tinwhiskers | New Zealand introduces the toughest border regulations in the world. Every person entering NZ including residents and citizens will be required to enter a 14 day self-quarantine. No cruise ships will be allowed into the country. There is a temporary exemption for people from pacific islands. | 06:02 |
| xrogaan | A majority of people will get this thing, it's a given. We hope to build up a herd immunity before the amount of serious/critical patients overload the health care system. | 06:02 |
| tinwhiskers | now that's how you do it ^ | 06:02 |
| xrogaan | That's how some of the asian countries did it. | 06:03 |
| xrogaan | Singapore IIRC | 06:03 |
| xrogaan | Screened everybody, epidemic is under control there. | 06:04 |
| xrogaan | Hong Kong has very low numbers too, and they border China. | 06:04 |
| dlog | Hong Kong and Singapore did use a heavy-handed approach and their numbers are good. | 06:04 |
| dlog | you have to weigh that against other things though | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 04:55 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Manu Raju su Twitter: "363-40, House approves economic aid bill to provide relief from coronavirus outbreak. The 110-page bill, which was released right before midnight, would in part provide free testing, extend unemployment insurance and ensure paid leave for some workers. Justin Amash voted present" → https://is.gd/hSw7j4 | 06:08 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't even they required 14 day quarantine for *everyone* entering the country. | 06:08 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: eventually we'll get to a point where we can travel + quarantine for only 2 days + test -> proceed :) | 06:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 05:19 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: House passes relief bill, WH doctor says Trump was with guest who tested positive: President Donald Trump was at the same dinner table as a guest who later tested positive while hosting a Brazilian delegation at Mar-a-Lago, his physician Sean Conley said Friday. → https://is.gd/P09YeY | 06:22 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +185 cases (now 146312), +6 recoveries (now 72660) 🔶 US: +185 cases (now 2651) 🔸 Argentina: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 China: +5 recoveries (now 65634) 🔸 Hunan, China: +3 recoveries (now 1012) 🔸 Shandong, China: +1 recoveries (now 741) 🔸 Sichuan, China: +1 recoveries (now 511) | 06:29 |
| p_hpd[m] | what about Denmark ? | 06:30 |
| xrogaan | Wait a week or so. | 06:32 |
| dlog | Denmark is in trouble | 06:33 |
| p_hpd[m] | I know | 06:33 |
| dlog | pretty much if you're in continental europe right now, you've got a few really bad weeks ahead of you | 06:34 |
| p_hpd[m] | yes it does not look so good | 06:35 |
| p_hpd[m] | Denmark has gone into emergency mode now | 06:36 |
| dlog | are there any articles on how italy got it so wrong? what were their big mistakes? because that's what everyone needs to avoid now. | 06:44 |
| nick34348 | I heard they downplayed the severity of the virus in the beginning, so that led to people not self-quarntining and not social distancing | 06:45 |
| dlog | the government did? | 06:49 |
| nick34348 | No I think they just mean in general like people weren't as concerned about it. That's just what I heard though so take it with a grain of salt | 06:50 |
| nick34348 | Like supposedly people thought it was comparable to the flu | 06:50 |
| dlog | oh you mean the regular italians were like "meh" | 06:50 |
| dlog | but something else must have gone on too right? because they saw cases well before other european countries | 06:51 |
| dlog | did they have some huge group of wuhan tourists come in or something? | 06:52 |
| nick34348 | Well I remember hearing something about Northern Italy having a lot of Chinese migrant workers or something, which would make sense since a lot of the cases seem to be in Northern Italy | 06:52 |
| adventurer | They had people with it who came back from China or were some contact /friend of and they didn't test them | 06:52 |
| dlog | this is going to leave them with a huge trauma. i don't think they'll ever make this mistake (of not taking epidemics seriously) ever againb | 06:54 |
| petersjt014[m] | Weird that France hasn't seen as much. They're the highest volume tourist economy in the world, I'd expect their numbers to be closer. | 06:54 |
| dlog | what is amazing is that even after seeing weeks of italy go into flames, other eu countries were so slow to react. spain is now exploding and denmark too. uk also. | 06:55 |
| petersjt014[m] | %data france | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | petersjt014[m]: In all areas, France, there are 3661 cases, 79 deaths (2.2% of cases), 12 recoveries as of March 14, 05:50Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 06:55 |
| petersjt014[m] | %data italy | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | petersjt014[m]: In all areas, Italy, there are 17660 cases, 1266 deaths (7.2% of cases), 1439 recoveries as of March 13, 22:21Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 06:55 |
| nick34348 | %data uk | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | nick34348: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 798 cases, 11 deaths (1.4% of cases), 18 recoveries as of March 14, 05:50Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 06:55 |
| nick34348 | %data Germany | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | nick34348: In all areas, Germany, there are 3675 cases, 8 deaths (0.2% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 14, 01:13Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 06:55 |
| nick34348 | %data Spain Denmark | 06:56 |
| Brainstorm | nick34348: Sorry, Spain Denmark not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 06:56 |
| nick34348 | %data Spain | 06:56 |
| Brainstorm | nick34348: In all areas, Spain, there are 5232 cases, 133 deaths (2.5% of cases), 193 recoveries as of March 13, 23:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data. | 06:56 |
| dlog | do italians smoke more than other europeans? | 06:56 |
| petersjt014[m] | Looks like it. | 06:57 |
| petersjt014[m] | A quick google says ~23% | 06:57 |
| dlog | that is a very big number | 06:58 |
| petersjt014[m] | ... But France is 36%. Huh. | 06:58 |
| dlog | can that be true? | 06:59 |
| petersjt014[m] | That's just from 7 seconds of googling | 06:59 |
| petersjt014[m] | Here's more: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita | 06:59 |
| petersjt014[m] | Wait | 07:00 |
| petersjt014[m] | Since when do we have 182 countries? | 07:01 |
| nick34348 | Those are probably just the only countries they have data on | 07:01 |
| dlog | is that northern part of italy particularly bad in terms of air pollution? | 07:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 05:58 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Mass gatherings could be banned in UK from next week → https://is.gd/Gjxj8f | 07:03 |
| dlog | not saying social distancing didn't have an effect. but i would be curious about smoking rates, air quality, comorbidities like diabetes, copd, asthma, and hypertension | 07:03 |
| petersjt014[m] | Good luck if you're on mobile, this thing runs like ass: https://aqicn.org/map/italy/m/ | 07:04 |
| nick34348 | Well how could smoking rates and air quality affect the transmission rate? Obviously those can impact someone's chances of surviving Covid-19, but I don't see how those could affect transmission rates | 07:04 |
| dlog | because if the air quality sucks you probably have lots of athmatics and copd people | 07:04 |
| nick34348 | Yes, so how does that affect the transmission rate? | 07:05 |
| petersjt014[m] | Also, you seem to be onto something; this was the 2nd result: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-pollution/air-pollution-clears-in-northern-italy-after-coronavirus-lockdown-satellite-shows-idUSKBN2102X4 | 07:05 |
| nick34348 | In regards to that article, a similar affect was seen in China recently as well | 07:05 |
| nick34348 | *effect | 07:05 |
| dlog | i think the transmission rates are probably somewhat uniform across countries but the reason we see more "confirmed cases" in some is because you have more serious cases there | 07:06 |
| nick34348 | True | 07:06 |
| dlog | the mild to no-symptom cases go under-reported | 07:06 |
| twomoon | i wsa just reading some papers about mold. i suspect that italians are exposed to more mold because they eat so much cheese. damages the lungs more and leads to higher fatality rate | 07:06 |
| dlog | and if your population is all asthmatics you migth have higher percent of non-mild cases so the stats look worse | 07:07 |
| nick34348 | Now I see, so you're saying that all these European countries might have a similar number of cases, it's just that it seems like it's higher in e.g. Italy because air pollution and smoking lead to more severe cases? | 07:07 |
| dlog | a similar percentage | 07:07 |
| nick34348 | Yeah that's what I mean | 07:07 |
| dlog | yeah, that was my idea | 07:07 |
| nick34348 | Oh okay, now I understand | 07:07 |
| petersjt014[m] | It might be helpful to look at travel rates from China to Italy etc in the last ~4 months | 07:08 |
| dlog | just a theory...i am trying to come up with explanation for italy's much worse outcome | 07:08 |
| dlog | maybe they have an older population too. do we know if their % of 70 or older is higher than other EU countries? | 07:09 |
| petersjt014[m] | It's certainly going to be related, people who spread far more than average would be rare so I'd expect the transmission rates to be roughly the same given an identical number of people. | 07:09 |
| dlog | i think so too. assuming you don't have completely different social distancing profiles | 07:10 |
| dlog | like if one country is still having concerts, sporting events, etc and another country locks down all gathers | 07:10 |
| dlog | gatherings* | 07:11 |
| dlog | then i would expect a different transmission rate | 07:11 |
| dlog | it also seems like there's a climate aspect right? | 07:12 |
| dlog | the northern hemisphere (colder right now) is harder hit than the southern hemisphere of the planet | 07:12 |
| ryouma | does that mean that the northern hemisphere in summer wil still be a poblem? | 07:15 |
| dlog | i was thinking that might be some good news, that summer is approaching | 07:15 |
| tinwhiskers | Not so much for us in the southern hemisphere! | 07:16 |
| dlog | yeah, bad news for the southern hemisphere | 07:16 |
| ryouma | but the fact that the sh is bad at all is bad news for both hemispheres | 07:16 |
| twomoon | dlog it's mold dude | 07:27 |
| twomoon | italians are more exposed to mold | 07:27 |
| dlog | mold in the air? | 07:27 |
| twomoon | mold => lung damage => more susceptible to lung illnesses | 07:27 |
| twomoon | mold in air, in food | 07:27 |
| dlog | why? | 07:28 |
| twomoon | italians always use yeast and eat cheeses like blue cheese | 07:28 |
| dlog | that doesn't sound believable to me | 07:28 |
| twomoon | it's moist and italy is famous (along with france) for having weird molds in the air and in caves that produce good cheeses | 07:28 |
| dlog | cheese -> lung disease -> covid-19 death | 07:28 |
| twomoon | yeah true | 07:28 |
| dlog | i don't buy it | 07:28 |
| twomoon | i just have this theory rolling around in my mind | 07:28 |
| twomoon | some papers i read show early exposure to molds condition the lungs and make asthma and immune overreaction more likely | 07:29 |
| dlog | deaths of covid-19 aren't immune overreaction (the flu is though) | 07:29 |
| twomoon | no? | 07:30 |
| fructose | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext#back-bib33 | 07:30 |
| dlog | no. if it were immune overreaction you'd see it affecting healthy people more (like the flu) | 07:30 |
| dlog | here it's affecting people with weaker immune systems (and weaker immune responses) | 07:30 |
| dlog | the elderly | 07:30 |
| fructose | Not sure if that's been linked yet, but "The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days" | 07:30 |
| twomoon | the mold not only causes immune overreaction but also permanently damaged the lungs | 07:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:17 UTC: (news): Trump shared table with another Mar-a-Lago guest who tested positive for coronavirus: White House doctor → https://is.gd/1nxTmy | 07:31 |
| twomoon | oh god, trump could have it | 07:31 |
| fructose | And https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.974139v3.full.pdf (pre-print, not likely peer reviewed yet) argues for a natural origin of spike glycoprotein insertions | 07:31 |
| fructose | Which altogether might be reassuring for those of us still following worst-case threads | 07:32 |
| dlog | i heard about the 37-day figure. but i had also heard of fecal shedding. yet that was not a likely transmission route (forgot the details) | 07:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: House passes relief bill, WH doctor says Trump was with guest who tested positive → https://is.gd/P09YeY | 07:44 |
| sneep | twomoon: That sounds incredible far-fetched | 08:09 |
| sneep | e=y | 08:11 |
| twomoon | ask ljl if italians eat tons of cheese | 08:12 |
| ketas | finally found right channel | 08:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 07:51 UTC: Apple to close all stores outside of China until March 27 in response to coronavirus: Apple said it had learnt lessons from the China outbreak and "the most effective way" to minimize transmission is to maximize social distance. → https://is.gd/mGE4gY | 08:53 |
| azy | https://twitter.com/TransGirlBillie/status/1238613412193550337 | 09:26 |
| azy | https://twitter.com/SERDARGOKCE82/status/1238678427110182912 | 09:26 |
| azy | hold up | 09:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 08:13 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Iss. Si teme aumento di contagi al centro-sud a causa di comportamenti irresponsabili. → https://is.gd/UnNwpd | 09:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 08:35 UTC: (news): Trump shared table with another Mar-a-Lago guest who tested positive for coronavirus: White House doctor → https://is.gd/1nxTmy | 09:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 09:13 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Buongiorno a tutti, mentre eravate via → https://is.gd/cQDvez | 10:16 |
| sneep | http://news.mit.edu/2010/itw-ventilator-0715 (2010) | 10:23 |
| sneep | %title | 10:23 |
| Brainstorm | sneep: From news.mit.edu: In the World: Breath of life | MIT News | 10:23 |
| sneep | not a useful title | 10:23 |
| IronY | 10 year old link? | 10:23 |
| sneep | Low-cost portable ventilator could be a lifesaver for people in remote locations and for hospitals in the developing world. | 10:23 |
| sneep | yes | 10:23 |
| IronY | oh, fair enough, well played | 10:23 |
| RougeRR | morning | 10:42 |
| RougeRR | well | 10:42 |
| RougeRR | looks like its really played out now, its out of the bag and the WHO is condemming the UK | 10:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 09:41 UTC: (news): Trump shared table with another Mar-a-Lago guest who tested positive for coronavirus: White House doctor → https://is.gd/1nxTmy | 10:43 |
| pwr22 | Morning | 10:51 |
| pwr22 | The UK approach seems like it would be bad for other countries that don't close their border to us 😧 | 10:51 |
| pwr22 | In other news, is everyone here running folding@home on all their PCs / servers? | 10:51 |
| pwr22 | They've got coronavirus workloads on there now so we can give our idle computer reasources to help out | 10:51 |
| CatButtes[m] | Peter Roberts: the UK seem to be changing our approach. Possibly as a result of half the country going “this is fucking stupid. Let’s implement measures ourselves” | 10:53 |
| pwr22 | Yeah | 10:53 |
| CatButtes[m] | (And good morning) | 10:53 |
| pwr22 | I'm uncertain they'll close schools unless they decide to back out of the (make all the people who aren't high risk sick) line of thinking though | 10:53 |
| pwr22 | I was surprised to see a local nightclub open as usual yesterday | 10:54 |
| pwr22 | At the same time hundreds of people were ravaging asda | 10:54 |
| pwr22 | I felt like I was in a Game of Thrones battle | 10:54 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, ill stick it on when i rebuild my pc | 10:54 |
| CatButtes[m] | Yeah, I went to Tesco the other day and it was weird how many empty aisles there were | 10:54 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, why are you surprised? | 10:55 |
| pwr22 | There were actually more people at the club early in the evening than I've ever seen too | 10:55 |
| CatButtes[m] | Then I went to the local mccolls and all the stuff Tesco was missing was sat on shelves | 10:55 |
| RougeRR | the nightclub is prime superspreader territory | 10:55 |
| RougeRR | exactly what government wants | 10:55 |
| RougeRR | full of healthy people | 10:55 |
| pwr22 | Seems the young generation want to get wasted to deal with what's going on | 10:55 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, lol nothing new there | 10:55 |
| RougeRR | CatButtes[m], same no bog roll | 10:56 |
| CatButtes[m] | Yup, I can see why getting pissed and forgetting troubles might be attractive | 10:56 |
| pwr22 | RougeRR: More I meant I thought the club might be the "good guys" and not open | 10:56 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, but isnt the UK gov approach the good guy one? | 10:56 |
| CatButtes[m] | RougeRR: try your local corner shop | 10:56 |
| pwr22 | I tried getting pissed to deal with mental health problms | 10:56 |
| RougeRR | CatButtes[m], that was my thought | 10:56 |
| RougeRR | or maybe local portugese/polish shops | 10:56 |
| CatButtes[m] | Booze and mental health are not a good mix | 10:57 |
| RougeRR | nope | 10:57 |
| pwr22 | The problem was my issues were continuous and severe | 10:57 |
| RougeRR | ugh im in withdrawals | 10:57 |
| pwr22 | It did not go well | 10:57 |
| pwr22 | <RougeRR "Peter Roberts, but isnt the UK g"> Lets not go back into this again | 10:57 |
| pwr22 | Keep things non adversarial whilst I'm around 😉 | 10:57 |
| RougeRR | huh? | 10:57 |
| RougeRR | im being serious | 10:57 |
| RougeRR | you said they might do the right thing? | 10:58 |
| CatButtes[m] | RougeRR: the WHO are critical of the UK gov strategy. I think that’s all that needs saying right now | 10:58 |
| RougeRR | but isnt the right thing to increase the spread, if we follow UK gov advice | 10:58 |
| RougeRR | CatButtes[m], i agree | 10:58 |
| pwr22 | I don't generally think in a black and white sense - there isn't one correct solution - and that's as far as I'm going on this topic because I don't think you know how to drop a discussion - no offense meant here - just an observation | 10:58 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, i dont tbh haha | 10:58 |
| pwr22 | Just keep things friendly in your discussion and I won't kick you okay? No getting angry and calling people dipshits again | 10:59 |
| mefistofeles | Germany cases spiked from yesterday :/ | 10:59 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, fair enough | 10:59 |
| RougeRR | however | 10:59 |
| RougeRR | i will say that maybe publish channel rules and an op list | 11:00 |
| CatButtes[m] | I won’t carry it on beyond saying I’m concerned that we are so far out from what every other country is doing | 11:00 |
| pwr22 | Also maybe avoid mentioning me to try and bait me back into a discussion I've politely declined so many times if you wan't to avoid me spotting any misbehaviour 🤣 | 11:00 |
| Guest52502 | %data germany | 11:00 |
| Brainstorm | Guest52502: In all areas, Germany, there are 3675 cases, 8 deaths (0.2% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 14, 01:13Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 11:00 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, fair enough | 11:00 |
| RougeRR | honestly, ill let the news cycle digest this and see what happens | 11:00 |
| pwr22 | <RougeRR "i will say that maybe publish ch"> I'm just a mod on the matrix side but maybe LjL can take a look? I don't think there are any hard rules but just behave like the people you are talking to are other human beings with feelings too and in the same shitty situation, with a bit of empathy that maybe they are having a bad enough day already | 11:01 |
| pwr22 | That's basically my criteria | 11:02 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, thats fair. | 11:02 |
| RougeRR | Ive been on IRC a long time, it ussually works better with a basic rule list | 11:02 |
| RougeRR | and knowing who the ops are | 11:02 |
| pwr22 | <RougeRR "honestly, ill let the news cycle"> Yeah, I honestly wouldn't be suprised if within 2 weeks the policy is dramaticaly different in UK | 11:02 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, I wont discuss it with you | 11:03 |
| RougeRR | but i may still discuss it here reasonablly | 11:03 |
| RougeRR | if thats k | 11:03 |
| RougeRR | im less angry now the cats out the bag and the news is discussing it | 11:03 |
| pwr22 | Yeah np, just keep it civil - I'm not wanting to put down your opinions 👍️ | 11:04 |
| RougeRR | okie dokie | 11:04 |
| pwr22 | RougeRR: not sure about on IRC but from the matrix side it looks like LjL is admin with me and @bubu:bubu1.eu as mods | 11:06 |
| pwr22 | Though @bubu seems to be out of the room | 11:06 |
| RougeRR | ahh see im used to irc ops or a bot controlling i | 11:06 |
| RougeRR | you might be able to mirror matrix on irc side | 11:06 |
| pwr22 | I would expect there's some ops on IRC side that I can't see maybe, or maybe it's handled through the bots which are mods | 11:08 |
| Aooh | :) | 11:08 |
| RougeRR | there is a Brainstorm bot | 11:08 |
| RougeRR | no ops | 11:08 |
| pwr22 | I can kick or ban IRC users no problem, the bridge will propagate it | 11:08 |
| mefistofeles | actually, let me check something | 11:09 |
| mefistofeles | :) | 11:09 |
| RougeRR | better | 11:09 |
| RougeRR | if you dont want to keep ops opped | 11:09 |
| mefistofeles | I didn't even know, tbh | 11:09 |
| RougeRR | i recommend an oplist | 11:09 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +268 cases (now 146580), +5 deaths (now 5446), +24 recoveries (now 72684) 🔶 Switzerland: +220 cases (now 1359) 🔸 Afghanistan: +3 cases (now 10) 🔸 Algeria: +11 cases (now 37), +1 deaths (now 3) 🔸 Argentina: +1 recoveries (now 1) 🔸 Armenia: +7 cases (now 15) 🔸 Australia: +26 cases (now 226) 🔸 Austria: +98 cases (now 602) 🔸 Bangladesh: +1 recoveries (now 2) 🔸 Canada: +2 cases (now 200) 🔸 China | 11:09 |
| pwr22 | Do I show as having op's on the IRC side? I would think not as I think I go through the bot | 11:10 |
| RougeRR | pwr22, no | 11:10 |
| mefistofeles | pwr22: nope | 11:10 |
| pwr22 | @appservice-irc:matrix.org is the bridge | 11:11 |
| Aooh | :cat | 11:15 |
| pwr22 | Welcome flux | 11:27 |
| pwr22 | 🙂 | 11:27 |
| Biep[m] | Am I dreaming, or did the world figure just jump down from 149.xxx to 146.xxx?? | 11:31 |
| pwr22 | From the bot or from somewhere else? | 11:32 |
| awffafawf | Biep[m]: The miracles of modern medicine... | 11:32 |
| pwr22 | As far as I know tinwhiskers is still fighting the upstream data being in flux / wrong so it may be to do with that | 11:32 |
| JsonJuri[m] | 146,326 | 11:33 |
| tinwhiskers | Anything is possible! | 11:33 |
| Biep[m] | From Brainstorm. I thought a few hours ago: "Ah, we are reaching the 150.000 figure. And now we aren't yet.. | 11:33 |
| sneep | In a couple days there will be more cases outside China than in China | 11:34 |
| pwr22 | !cases china | 11:34 |
| Biep[m] | * From Brainstorm. I thought a few hours ago: "Ah, we are reaching the 150.000 figure. And now we aren't yet.. | 11:34 |
| CatButtes[m] | sneep: that’s not surprising given how hard china stamped on this thing early on. Now we just need other countries to do the same | 11:34 |
| adventurer | Do you think people assume the dirty peopel don't wash their hands that's why it spreads but really wash your hands all you like but someone sneezes next to you and ...oh oh | 11:35 |
| pwr22 | Today I'll implement country code handling for Cov Bot | 11:35 |
| Biep[m] | "Cases" includes recovered, doesn't it? | 11:35 |
| pwr22 | And aliases | 11:35 |
| pwr22 | Yes | 11:35 |
| awffafawf | Opinions: How bad is it to meet with 6 friends to play some boardgames in a coronavirus enriched area? | 11:35 |
| Biep[m] | Lots of people end up calling up the Ukraine data.. 🤣 | 11:36 |
| adventurer | anyway everyone will be washing their hands 100 times a day but i don't know...it might help a bit i hope | 11:36 |
| adventurer | or 50 times a day | 11:36 |
| awffafawf | adventurer: I'm just guessing here. I think the biggest issue is that people don't know how to wash their hands properly... | 11:37 |
| JsonJuri[m] | For those who like to listen podcasts this is interesting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw | 11:37 |
| adventurer | i remember a lady talking who lived through the spanish flu...talking on the radio. they had to wash their hands all the time..s.he said she washed them until her hands were raw | 11:38 |
| adventurer | was a nurse | 11:38 |
| Biep[m] | !cases world | 11:38 |
| sneep | https://foldingathome.org/2020/03/10/covid19-update/ | 11:39 |
| pwr22 | Yes, everyone fold! | 11:39 |
| pwr22 | <Biep[m] "Lots of people end up calling up"> Yeah this is quite a pain when JHU move from using a country code to the country name | 11:40 |
| pwr22 | Clearly the maintainers don't understand breaking changes | 11:41 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: I was quite taken by fructose's moving doubling time thing so have added that into the graphs. There is a slider underneath to adjust the number of days used for the moving regression. I've also added a checkbox to use a Log scale if you want. | 11:47 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, I mean pwr22. | 11:48 |
| JsonJuri[m] | !cases the netherlands | 11:48 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh. Umm. you probably don't know what I'm referring to. just ignore me | 11:48 |
| JsonJuri[m] | !cases netherlands | 11:48 |
| pwr22 | tinwhiskers: I don't but am now intrigued! | 11:49 |
| JsonJuri[m] | !cases taiwan | 11:49 |
| tinwhiskers | You probably only want to have one or two series turned on to look at the moving doubling time as it's a bit weird and wonderful. | 11:50 |
| adventurer | we probably breath it into our noses even if our hands are clean | 11:55 |
| adventurer | of course | 11:58 |
| adventurer | but still they tell us not to even wear a scarf over our noses...that's not socially acceptable even if someone is in front of us with a full on sickness | 11:59 |
| adventurer | bbl | 12:00 |
| adventurer | sorry talked to much | 12:00 |
| pwr22 | The virus is unlikely to be well impeded by a scarf | 12:02 |
| pwr22 | I mean it'd be better than nothing but unless you're in particularly cramped conditions (like a metro / tube train) I doubt it's much use | 12:03 |
| sneep | pwr22: Just added 3 physical (+3 hyper) cores | 12:06 |
| sneep | And finally got an actual coronavirus project | 12:07 |
| oxalis | Okay. I’ve literally been underground yesterday. What’s unfolded in the last 24? | 12:07 |
| oxalis | !cases Austin | 12:07 |
| RougeRR | oxalis, UK went hardcore | 12:07 |
| oxalis | ? | 12:07 |
| sneep | Trump declared a national emergency | 12:07 |
| sneep | !cases texas | 12:08 |
| oxalis | !cases Austin Texas USA | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | oxalis, UK going against who advise and advocating heard immunity | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | risky strategy | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | herd | 12:08 |
| pwr22 | 👍 | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | fuck me | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | why cant i say heard | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | heard herd | 12:08 |
| RougeRR | its not a word i have to say often | 12:08 |
| pwr22 | !cases austin | 12:08 |
| oxalis | So, what are they saying and what’s wrong? | 12:09 |
| RougeRR | or advice | 12:09 |
| light | oxalis: the WHO releases status update reports every day https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports | 12:09 |
| RougeRR | oxalis, ill post article | 12:09 |
| RougeRR | you can have a read | 12:09 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +1488 cases (now 148109), +99 deaths (now 5547), +16 recoveries (now 72698) 🔶 Iran: +1365 cases (now 12729), +97 deaths (now 611) 🔸 Bahrain: +1 cases (now 211), +16 recoveries (now 60) 🔸 Cyprus: +7 cases (now 21) 🔸 Germany: +83 cases (now 3758) 🔸 Norway: +1 cases (now 1003) 🔸 Sri Lanka: +1 cases (now 8) 🔸 Switzerland: +16 cases (now 1375), +2 deaths (now 13) 🔸 Thailand: +7 cases (now 82) 🔸 Tri | 12:09 |
| oxalis | pwr22: as far as i know, there are 4 cases in Austin last I checked. | 12:09 |
| RougeRR | its a bit contentious and no one quite agrees. | 12:09 |
| RougeRR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work | 12:09 |
| oxalis | Thanks. I’ll read | 12:09 |
| corecode | oh this is disappointingly empty | 12:09 |
| sneep | Hmm, CPU temperature is over 90C | 12:10 |
| pwr22 | sneep: I've got a 6700k overclocked and a 2080 super overclocked on it 👍 | 12:10 |
| pwr22 | Mines at 65c, but I've done things to make it pretty good | 12:10 |
| corecode | what's the [m] suffix? | 12:10 |
| light | corecode: matrix users | 12:10 |
| oxalis | Fuck, RougeRR , that’s gonna kill nanny | 12:11 |
| pwr22 | I can feel heat pouring out the machine | 12:11 |
| RougeRR | oxalis, thats the thinking of many... | 12:11 |
| RougeRR | wait | 12:11 |
| RougeRR | nanny | 12:11 |
| RougeRR | i read it as many | 12:11 |
| RougeRR | both | 12:11 |
| oxalis | I meant like “grandma” | 12:12 |
| RougeRR | i know now | 12:12 |
| RougeRR | yeh | 12:12 |
| corecode | so how can you differentially diagnose to other diseases, when in the early stages? | 12:13 |
| RougeRR | fever, dry cough, malaise, muscle ache | 12:13 |
| RougeRR | fatigue | 12:13 |
| RougeRR | It was striking that last night on my show when I asked Margaret Harris of the World Health Organisation to name a country that was adopting an optimal strategy she cited South Korea - which has a mass testing and quarantining programme that is on an utterly different scale from what prevails here. | 12:13 |
| RougeRR | https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/robert-peston-how-risky-is-boris-johnsons-maverick-coronavirus-strategy/ | 12:14 |
| corecode | RougeRR: unfortunately that almost covers symptoms of infections i've had in the past, so that's not differential enough | 12:14 |
| RougeRR | corecode, the dry lower resp cough is key | 12:15 |
| RougeRR | if you feel these symptoms you should behave as if you are infected | 12:15 |
| corecode | so until that develops, a person couldn't tell | 12:15 |
| RougeRR | its impossible to know though | 12:15 |
| RougeRR | corecode, pretty much | 12:15 |
| RougeRR | runny nose is not a common symptom nor is a 'wet cough' | 12:15 |
| RougeRR | so that is more likely to rule it out | 12:15 |
| contingo | %cases uk | 12:15 |
| Brainstorm | contingo: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 798 cases, 11 deaths (1.4% of cases), 18 recoveries as of March 14, 11:05Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 12:15 |
| RougeRR | ^ estimated 10x thart | 12:16 |
| dlog | 90% present with fever, so no fever probably means no covid | 12:16 |
| sneep | Well I'm glad I'm not in UK | 12:16 |
| corecode | why 10x? | 12:16 |
| RougeRR | corecode, thats the UK govs word | 12:16 |
| RougeRR | because they are untested or aymtpomatic | 12:16 |
| RougeRR | or low symptoms | 12:16 |
| corecode | okay | 12:16 |
| contingo | updates at 2pm was it? | 12:16 |
| RougeRR | contingo, yep | 12:16 |
| dlog | it's well more than 10x that | 12:17 |
| RougeRR | so | 12:17 |
| commandocrypto[m | only 39,999,202 more cases and the UK will reach herd immunity guys! | 12:17 |
| RougeRR | given the UK is going for herd immunity | 12:17 |
| RougeRR | wont the UK be on a global blacklist? | 12:17 |
| contingo | yay | 12:17 |
| RougeRR | travel ban wise | 12:17 |
| sneep | lol commandocrypto[m | 12:17 |
| corecode | what about those who were just infected and still incubating? | 12:17 |
| RougeRR | commandocrypto[m, hahaha | 12:17 |
| corecode | is that in the 10x? | 12:17 |
| corecode | or is there another 10x | 12:17 |
| RougeRR | apparently | 12:17 |
| RougeRR | but honestly its rough guesses | 12:18 |
| RougeRR | in some respects more cases is good | 12:18 |
| corecode | yea unless you're in south korea | 12:18 |
| RougeRR | it means the death rate is lower | 12:18 |
| dlog | you're always looking at the past | 12:18 |
| RougeRR | corecode, south korea is being held up as the model response by the WHO | 12:18 |
| contingo | purely in self-interest then, if that's the gov's strategy, wouldn't an optimal time to get it be around now | 12:18 |
| sneep | On the bright side -- if you don't like Boris Johnson and if too many people die as a result of this policy, he might get sacked | 12:18 |
| RougeRR | UK is being criticised heavily by the WHO | 12:19 |
| contingo | there are still beds and still expanding capacity for a little bit | 12:19 |
| RougeRR | sneep, that is not much of a bright side | 12:19 |
| RougeRR | and tbh | 12:19 |
| corecode | how is the UK especially bad? | 12:19 |
| RougeRR | corecode, we are advoacting herd immunity | 12:19 |
| corecode | oh, like, explicitly? | 12:19 |
| RougeRR | yes | 12:20 |
| corecode | oh wow | 12:20 |
| RougeRR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work | 12:20 |
| corecode | so what's the plan? | 12:20 |
| RougeRR | increase spread now | 12:20 |
| RougeRR | well | 12:20 |
| RougeRR | control it | 12:20 |
| corecode | peaken the curve? | 12:20 |
| RougeRR | but dont put in place heavy restrictions | 12:20 |
| RougeRR | steady controlled infection, while cocooning the vulnerable at a peak aimed for summer | 12:21 |
| corecode | that sounds like the US need to expand their travel bans | 12:21 |
| RougeRR | thats the "plan" | 12:21 |
| RougeRR | corecode, it could be very telling that they are not... | 12:21 |
| contingo | as of a few weeks ago, we were also especially bad in terms of being very low on the list on European countries ranked by numbers of critical care spaces and equipment | 12:21 |
| RougeRR | contingo, yes | 12:21 |
| commandocrypto[m | i'm kinda outta the loop but would it make sense to spread the word about COVID19 folding@home to gamer chans? PCmasterrace? | 12:21 |
| corecode | telling how? | 12:21 |
| RougeRR | and coincidentally we have the 2nd worst sick pay in europe and an especially bad social care/benefits system | 12:21 |
| RougeRR | this herd immunity tactic is thought to lessen the economic blow | 12:22 |
| contingo | RougeRR how are cases in the Channel Is., any more? | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | and rely less on these systems | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | contingo, 3 | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | 2 jersey | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | 1 guernsey | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | guernsey is going containmentr | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | jersey is saying carry on | 12:22 |
| contingo | right | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | the two islands are at odds | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | its crazy | 12:22 |
| RougeRR | totally different advice | 12:22 |
| oxalis | Few Virus Cases, but Austin Is Reeling ‘As If a Tornado Came Through’ - The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/austin-sxsw-carmel-fenves.html | 12:22 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +217 cases (now 148326), +1 deaths (now 5548) 🔶 Belgium: +130 cases (now 689), +1 deaths (now 4) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Bahrain: +1 cases (now 211), +16 recoveries (now 60) 🔸 Cyprus: +7 cases (now 21) 🔸 Finland: +59 cases (now 215) 🔸 Germany: +83 cases (now 3758) 🔸 India: +1 cases (now 84) 🔸 Israel: +3 cases (now 164) 🔸 Qatar: +17 cases (now 337) 🔸 Russia: +2 cases (now 47) | 12:22 |
| corecode | RougeRR: great AB test tho | 12:23 |
| commandocrypto[m | it's almost like the world is a petri dish RougeRR | 12:23 |
| RougeRR | corecode, yeah it is | 12:23 |
| contingo | my great aunt on Alderney is 109 | 12:23 |
| RougeRR | commandocrypto[m, it seems that way | 12:23 |
| RougeRR | contingo, alderny apparently are not closing borders | 12:23 |
| corecode | wow 109 | 12:23 |
| RougeRR | contingo, wow old | 12:23 |
| corecode | rock on | 12:23 |
| RougeRR | they dont want to be totally unimmune | 12:23 |
| oxalis | When Weird Austin loses it’s shit enough to get into the NYTimes..... | 12:24 |
| contingo | she lives independently, not even in St Anne | 12:24 |
| sneep | commandocrypto[m: Sure, why not? | 12:24 |
| Targodan | %cases germany | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | Targodan: In all areas, Germany, there are 3758 cases, 8 deaths (0.2% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 14, 11:18Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | %cases jersey | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | RougeRR: In New Jersey, US, there are 29 cases, 1 deaths (3.4% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 12, 21:39Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=New%20Jersey for time series data. | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | no | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | fix it | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | %cases guernsey | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | RougeRR: In all areas, Guernsey, there are 1 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 13, 22:22Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Guernsey for time series data. | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | no | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | wait | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | yes | 12:24 |
| RougeRR | thats correcrt | 12:24 |
| contingo | oh wait, 106 I think | 12:24 |
| corecode | not new guernsey? | 12:25 |
| contingo | https://twitter.com/BBCGuernsey/status/1068878398389448705 | 12:25 |
| oxalis | Let’s face it. We’re all just a bunch of apes who think we control things | 12:25 |
| corecode | (: | 12:25 |
| contingo | my gran's sister | 12:25 |
| corecode | well, south korea and china showed that we can control things | 12:25 |
| sneep | contingo: wow, does she remember the spanish flu? | 12:25 |
| contingo | no she was born in 1913 | 12:26 |
| pwr22 | I just accidentally hard reset my pc using a smart plugs 🤦♂️ | 12:26 |
| corecode | so what's the deal with the toilet paper runs? | 12:26 |
| corecode | do we have a solid explanation for that? | 12:26 |
| oxalis | :( | 12:26 |
| pwr22 | sneep | 12:26 |
| contingo | so ok 107 | 12:26 |
| dlog | why did merkel say 70% of germany will get it and china (with a population of 1 billion only has 80k cases and it has flattened out)? | 12:26 |
| contingo | RougeRR: https://gerontology.wikia.org/wiki/Felicity_Crump | 12:27 |
| oxalis | A newborn has tested positive | 12:27 |
| corecode | dlog: no containment vs containment | 12:27 |
| RougeRR | contingo, interesting | 12:27 |
| RougeRR | neat! | 12:27 |
| contingo | RougeRR: a letter she wrote at the age of 103: http://www.hwa.uk.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Felicity-Crump1.pdf | 12:27 |
| adventurer | Does anyone know any statistics on asthma and coronavirus? | 12:27 |
| corecode | adventurer: i have heard that china reported that they had a lower than population prevalence of hospitalized patients | 12:28 |
| corecode | but i don't have the reference right now | 12:28 |
| RougeRR | contingo, that is interest | 12:28 |
| RougeRR | she seems sharp | 12:28 |
| contingo | I hope I have her genes | 12:28 |
| RougeRR | well you have some! | 12:29 |
| adventurer | oh :) | 12:29 |
| adventurer | that seems strange | 12:29 |
| corecode | why? | 12:30 |
| adventurer | what you said sounded like if someone had asthma they had less of a chance to end up in hospital that is counter intuitive but perhaps you didn't mean that | 12:30 |
| corecode | i did mean that | 12:30 |
| corecode | but why is it counter intuitive | 12:31 |
| contingo | I'm also half Chinese, near-super-centenarians on that side too | 12:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 11:21 UTC: Routine surgery in Wales cancelled due to coronavirus: The health minister says beds need to be freed up, as the number of cases in Wales rises to 60. → https://is.gd/bLB2bH | 12:32 |
| contingo | but I can also pick examples from both sides of relatives who go rapidly downhill after 40 | 12:32 |
| commandocrypto[m | https://www.rt.com/uk/483076-coronavirus-mayoral-elections-postponed/ | 12:35 |
| commandocrypto[m | ok so ... are pandemic accelerationist is going for herd immunity but at the same time cancelling elections for CoVID-20 (or will that be COVID-20). good to see all the extreme caution being used in all the right places | 12:38 |
| corecode | say what? | 12:39 |
| commandocrypto[m | they can't even bother to cancel the morrisey concert which is on probably the only weekend that strongly matters but - get rid of elections well into 2021 | 12:39 |
| corecode | i'm sure somebody will challenge that in court | 12:40 |
| commandocrypto[m | meh if no one is even going to express autonomy about this whole "using the youth of britain as the greatest bioweapon 'science' (really sociology) experiment" decision... why would they challenge this? | 12:43 |
| corecode | lol good for him | 12:44 |
| corecode | well prepared | 12:45 |
| commandocrypto[m | maybe this guy will he seems to be comfy contradicting the public policy | 12:45 |
| commandocrypto[m | at what point will covering your face when late-night partiers are coofing at ur face on the train be considered "a threat to the public policy"? | 12:45 |
| commandocrypto[m | imagine we are just a few more million away from achieving herd immunity | 12:46 |
| commandocrypto[m | 57 million infected... we are sooo close | 12:46 |
| corecode | did they explain the math? | 12:46 |
| commandocrypto[m | > oi m8 u gotta loicense for that mask | 12:47 |
| awffafawf | can you prove that it's a bad idea? | 12:47 |
| corecode | i mean, in the end, you have to go for herd immunity in one way or another | 12:47 |
| corecode | maybe that's what they mean? | 12:48 |
| commandocrypto[m | i don't need to all the best real scientists in the country have said that it's gonna take 60-80% of the population being infected to even achieve such kinda herd immunity | 12:48 |
| commandocrypto[m | i mean what percentage got smallpox before we got herd immunity? | 12:48 |
| commandocrypto[m | it looks like the FX bois are betting that we are worse off than italy, germany, france and spain etc right now | 12:51 |
| corecode | uh hot damn | 12:52 |
| astraliam[m] | 911 was perfect getting public to accept wars in middle east and loss of civil liberties. It was justifiable in a sense that without new measure future terrorist would be able to do much more damage. COVID19 could become the perfect excuse for totalitarian control of all aspects of human life in the west. I should become the tipping point that helps us move to living in high tech decentralised eco-villages. Something | 12:52 |
| astraliam[m] | we needed anyway. To me this seems like potentially the knife edge humanity is on. | 12:52 |
| commandocrypto[m | always watch what the internationalism syndicates DO with their money, not what they tell u to do with urself | 12:52 |
| corecode | astraliam[m]: what do you suggest doing? | 12:53 |
| astraliam[m] | * 911 was perfect for getting public to accept wars in middle east and loss of civil liberties. It was justifiable in a sense that without new measure future terrorist would be able to do much more damage. COVID19 could become the perfect excuse for totalitarian control of all aspects of human life in the west. I should become the tipping point that helps us move to living in high tech decentralised eco-villages. | 12:53 |
| astraliam[m] | Something we needed anyway. To me this seems like potentially the knife edge humanity is on. | 12:53 |
| corecode | or not doing? | 12:53 |
| commandocrypto[m | astraliam: totally agree buddy - never has the possibility for shaping future been more clearly placed into the common man's hands | 12:53 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: the government policy is to not do anything - but that doesn't stop us from coming together in small groups all over the country | 12:54 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: doesn't your statement contradict what astraliam[m] said? | 12:54 |
| commandocrypto[m | just when these morons are busy shitting in their own kitchen and setting their own bins on fire is not a bad time to do it anyways | 12:55 |
| commandocrypto[m | no not at all | 12:55 |
| commandocrypto[m | but please explain what gap ur seeing from you're perspective and i can explain | 12:55 |
| corecode | the UK strategy seems to be not totalitarian? | 12:55 |
| pwr22 | !cases us | 12:56 |
| pwr22 | !cases uk | 12:56 |
| astraliam[m] | I think we should be developing the vision for replicable ecovillage models, turning marginal land into thriving sustainable communities at scale. Convince the public their choice is this or being chipped, tracked, and basically treated like cattle. We need to focus on the positive vision not the fear one though. | 12:56 |
| pwr22 | * !cases united kingdowm | 12:56 |
| pwr22 | * !cases united kingdom | 12:56 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: the strategy is accelerationist - but we dont' know what way they want to turn when it all goes to the wall (we do) | 12:57 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, whos? | 12:57 |
| commandocrypto[m | bojo's | 12:57 |
| RougeR | oh i got told off for saying they want it to accelerate | 12:58 |
| astraliam[m] | corecode: right now yes. I hope that continues, but it may swing when things get bad. I hope Britain remains liberal but enough fear and who knows. We seem very allied with the US and the story of the detroit water story turns my stomach and show what that nation has become. | 12:58 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: yes, but isn't that exactly opposite of totalitarian? | 12:58 |
| pwr22 | The stats show the UK to be doing better than the US so far which is interesting | 12:58 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, thing is | 12:58 |
| RougeR | i dont live under the UK government | 12:58 |
| astraliam[m] | in any case, the ecovillage solution was already much needed. | 12:59 |
| RougeR | I live under jersey government | 12:59 |
| RougeR | we can choose to make our own laws | 12:59 |
| RougeR | or could.... | 12:59 |
| commandocrypto[m | the point of accelerationsim (from the totalitarian/transhumanist strategy) is to increase debauchery and decadence and disease until we need more daddy government | 12:59 |
| JsonJuri[m] | https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793 | 12:59 |
| corecode | astraliam[m]: so you're advocating for some sort of separatism? | 12:59 |
| commandocrypto[m | Peter Roberts: the US test kits didn't arrive. and the ones that did, still aren't working | 12:59 |
| corecode | even if just internally? | 12:59 |
| RougeR | corecode, its an option | 13:00 |
| RougeR | but saying this | 13:00 |
| RougeR | if we do this, wont this scarper the uk gov plan? | 13:00 |
| RougeR | assuming ti would work | 13:00 |
| RougeR | its assuming we dont panic early and isolate | 13:00 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeR: well that's nice! you have an opportunity there with ur local government ... oh wait all elections have been canceled until 2021 lol | 13:00 |
| pwr22 | I guess it's time to add a `!herd` command that updates on the status of the herd 🤣 | 13:00 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, not here | 13:00 |
| RougeR | pwr22, haha | 13:01 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Im not sure herd is a good plan | 13:01 |
| RougeR | im waiting for the cow memes | 13:01 |
| RougeR | JsonJuri[m], you and the rest of the world | 13:01 |
| JsonJuri[m] | 🤯 | 13:01 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeR: yes it would scarper the plan. but so does anyone who wears a mask, or doesn't let a coofer coof in their mouth | 13:01 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, this is my point | 13:01 |
| RougeR | its relying on people not panicking and isolating early | 13:01 |
| RougeR | it would mean that it throws off their modelling | 13:01 |
| corecode | do you have a link on the herd immunity plan? | 13:01 |
| RougeR | and we could peak mid next winter | 13:01 |
| corecode | i can't find it | 13:01 |
| RougeR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work | 13:02 |
| commandocrypto[m | reported by that super slimey ITV politico | 13:02 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +49 cases (now 148375), +1 deaths (now 5549), +810 recoveries (now 73508) 🔶 Iran: +810 recoveries (now 4339) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Australia: +22 cases (now 248) 🔸 Bahrain: +1 cases (now 211), +16 recoveries (now 60) 🔸 Iraq: +1 deaths (now 10) 🔸 Norway: +27 cases (now 1030) | 13:03 |
| commandocrypto[m | https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/ | 13:03 |
| commandocrypto[m | Robert Peston | 13:03 |
| commandocrypto[m | does anyone ITT know say... empty, disused rural buildings in their area? you don't need to answer necessariliy | 13:04 |
| RougeR | commandocrypto[m, sure | 13:04 |
| RougeR | lots | 13:04 |
| RougeR | and bunkers | 13:04 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Germany and The Netherlands also announced 60% of the people might become infected are they all planning this "herd immunity" | 13:04 |
| commandocrypto[m | but that's one part of the grand astraliam plan | 13:04 |
| RougeR | JsonJuri[m], no | 13:04 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: the video doesn't show that plan | 13:04 |
| RougeR | they say they might | 13:04 |
| RougeR | not they want it | 13:04 |
| RougeR | herd immunity should happen naturally eventually | 13:05 |
| RougeR | the uk gov is trying to control it | 13:05 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: the plan was outlined by Bojo in the livestream midweek - you're right, Peston didn't really summarize it. no one really has | 13:05 |
| JsonJuri[m] | But they can stimulate it by not taking measures to stop it | 13:05 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeR: so just find ppl in ur area and LARP as a prepper in said buildings | 13:06 |
| commandocrypto[m | i'm pretty sure the demand for such things will drop quite precipitously if the herd immunity plan continues for much longer anyways | 13:06 |
| commandocrypto[m | just stock them with old fashioned hand tools and give these binfire youths a place to keep their hands busy and stay away from contagion as a bonus | 13:07 |
| commandocrypto[m | build a Rocket Mass Heater and get ur little merry band of LARPers to clean the surrounding woods of deadwood branches etc - make a pizza oven in the middle of the room | 13:08 |
| commandocrypto[m | that's a huge concern to me - ppl need more community in the coming years, not more isolation. and doing silly little things like i'm describing would go a long way | 13:10 |
| corecode | sorry, i can't find a proper statement that their plan is to go for herd immunity now | 13:11 |
| corecode | feels like fake news | 13:11 |
| sneep | https://twitter.com/NVIDIAGeForce/status/1238496311776653312 | 13:11 |
| sneep | %title | 13:11 |
| Brainstorm | sneep: From twitter.com: NVIDIA GeForce su Twitter: "PC Gamers, let’s put those GPUs to work. Join us and our friends at @OfficialPCMR in supporting folding@home and donating unused GPU computing power to fight against [...] | 13:11 |
| notkoos | it's not fake news https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0chs7bVQ8Y | 13:12 |
| mefistofeles | %title | 13:12 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: From www.youtube.com: Watch again: Boris Johnson makes coronavirus announcement after COBRA meeting - YouTube | 13:12 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: you're cottoning on | 13:13 |
| python476 | I feel sick | 13:13 |
| python476 | I got the flu | 13:13 |
| python476 | asthma is gonna quill me | 13:13 |
| Acoustic[m] | <Brainstorm "mefistofeles: From www.youtube.c"> commandocrypto: what you described is basically scouting | 13:13 |
| light | are you a hedgehog | 13:14 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: what is cottoning? | 13:14 |
| astraliam[m] | maybe soon they'll be handing out corona kits. 1 capsule, supply of food, box of tissues and 2 week subscription to netflix. | 13:14 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeR: if there is flowing (or even stagnant, but with elevation potential) water near the rural buildings, put in pipe and a peloton wheel and have a little raspberryPi with all the survival manual torrents downloaded onto it | 13:14 |
| Acoustic[m] | And scouting is pretty great idea, definitely organise community and train outdoors, alternative commucation techniques, survival, public service and first aid | 13:15 |
| python476 | hard to say if anxiety makes my lungs feel stuck or not | 13:15 |
| python476 | :/ | 13:15 |
| light | corecode: to cotton on is to begin to understand | 13:15 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: cluing in - figuring it out. basically it's not fake news but it will be soon. the mice area literally being buffeted from both sides. genius from a certain level of management | 13:15 |
| Acoustic[m] | commandocrypto: I meant to mention you. What you described is basically scouting | 13:15 |
| corecode | i don't understand any of these lyrical terms | 13:16 |
| commandocrypto[m | Acoustic: yes, basically scouting. we are pirate scouts | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +624 cases (now 148999), +3 deaths (now 5552), +324 recoveries (now 73832) 🔶 Spain: +521 cases (now 5753), +3 deaths (now 136), +324 recoveries (now 517) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Australia: +22 cases (now 248) 🔸 Bahrain: +1 cases (now 211), +16 recoveries (now 60) 🔸 Faroe Islands, Denmark: +6 cases (now 9) 🔸 Portugal: +57 cases (now 169) 🔸 Sweden: +46 cases (now 867) | 13:16 |
| commandocrypto[m | also consider there will be a shortage of scout leaders soon in britain since they're all catching this disease from their secret little meetings in Singapore | 13:17 |
| sneep | what does that even mean? | 13:17 |
| commandocrypto[m | at least the childless ones in their late 40s who work as a plumber in brighton ;) | 13:17 |
| corecode | what is going on? | 13:17 |
| corecode | none of your statements seem to make any sense | 13:18 |
| commandocrypto[m | are you aware of the first coronavirus pozz'd brit here in the UK? brighton man | 13:19 |
| corecode | i'm not in the UK, i don't know what is going on there | 13:19 |
| astraliam[m] | corecode: Seperatism? Maybe partially. our current system is known to be highly unsustainable and has been waiting for a black swan to take it down. Everyone in the population being able to take a 2 week holidays on the other side of the world 3 times a year... was always gonna be a disaster for many reasons. Cellular, organic approach to organising human life, with some cells (like the blood stream) being able to | 13:19 |
| astraliam[m] | travel makes much more sense. Much easier to deal with a viral outbreak but crucially is sustainable and can lead to happier humans, closer to nature, stronger communities. Can still be high tech, high education, with digitally connected (VR?) communities not limited by geography. | 13:19 |
| Acoustic[m] | This chat is a bit of a schizo central lol | 13:20 |
| corecode | lots of words, but i don't understand the plan | 13:20 |
| sneep | Gotta be careful not to look for too much meaning in the stuff that the people with [m] in their nicks say :p | 13:21 |
| corecode | :) | 13:21 |
| corecode | is this a matrix vs irc thing? | 13:21 |
| python476 | Acoustic[m]: how so | 13:22 |
| commandocrypto[m | ya. u guys dont' want me to pull out my old freenode nicks tho this place will get shilled to death in a matter of days if not hours | 13:22 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: don't worry about astraliam 's plan - we've got a good one. we're just trying to share ideas and are on standby with tools and shit that have been for years in full-time preparation for this crisis | 13:26 |
| python476 | do you know a time map of symptoms development ? | 13:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:18 UTC: (news): Italians are singing songs from their windows to boost morale during coronavirus lockdown → https://is.gd/nQ0CXq | 13:27 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | %data India | 13:27 |
| Brainstorm | rahiakherajot[m]: In all areas, India, there are 87 cases, 2 deaths (2.3% of cases), 10 recoveries as of March 14, 12:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 13:27 |
| Timvde | astraliam[m]: wait, what is the disaster according to you: that the rest of the world is able to take long holidays, or that people in your country aren't? | 13:27 |
| corecode | yea what up with india | 13:27 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | +12 cases, +1 death | 13:29 |
| corecode | how are there so few cases | 13:29 |
| jiffe | so WV is the only state without reported cases now.. I figured it would have been AK or MT | 13:33 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | <Mr_Pink "oh 52 labs + 57 testing faciliti"> Due to immediate action. | 13:34 |
| commandocrypto[m | Timvde: he's just saying that communities need restructuring. the part about every tom dick and harry jumping on discount fights to sit in all expenses paid compounds was just a bit of a tangent | 13:34 |
| python476 | corecode: probably bad statistics | 13:35 |
| python476 | corecode: the only argument for slow spread in india was the fact that they didn't like traveling to china | 13:36 |
| commandocrypto[m | and, officially, baths in cow dung | 13:36 |
| commandocrypto[m | s/officially/ostensibly/ | 13:37 |
| Brainstorm | commandocrypto[m meant to say: and, ostensibly, baths in cow dung | 13:37 |
| python476 | commandocrypto[m: I see, they're fighting infection with a high dose of earlydeath | 13:37 |
| corecode | python476: or something about heat or humidity? | 13:37 |
| python476 | corecode: true, forgot the climate factor | 13:37 |
| sneep | Also, India's pretty hot. If India doesn't see many cases, that's ground for optimism for the northern hemisphere | 13:37 |
| python476 | I was just asking about Africa, first reports there.. but maybe they'll have an easier time to heat | 13:38 |
| commandocrypto[m | it might be the winning strategy - some would say that china refused to quarantine before the lunar new year on purpose | 13:38 |
| python476 | sneep: northern ? | 13:38 |
| corecode | what is the chance that there is some natural immunity present due to similar existing circulating viruses? | 13:38 |
| python476 | by the time summer kicks in, patients will have contracted the disease fully, may stop the spread early but not help the sick | 13:38 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: on purpose why? | 13:39 |
| commandocrypto[m | same reason why COBRA is saying to spread it | 13:39 |
| python476 | corecode: well it wouldn't spread that much if there was 'inherited' immunity | 13:39 |
| corecode | yes that's what i am asking | 13:39 |
| python476 | I read CORBA | 13:39 |
| python476 | twice | 13:40 |
| corecode | what is COBRA? | 13:40 |
| python476 | the evil agency from GI JOE ? | 13:40 |
| commandocrypto[m | i mean make no mistake the whole "if you fight the virus, it wins" retardation actually makes sense if you're looking to create a sub-class of sub-human workers who are not too crippled to keep working | 13:40 |
| commandocrypto[m | and as a bonus have a much shorter life expectancy than humans | 13:40 |
| corecode | what? | 13:40 |
| commandocrypto[m | look at the age statistics for coronavirus - it's the wet dream of capital | 13:41 |
| corecode | am i missing part of the conversation? | 13:41 |
| RougeRR | corecode, | 13:41 |
| RougeRR | Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms | 13:41 |
| RougeRR | UK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_Office_Briefing_Rooms | 13:41 |
| RougeRR | > The Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms are a group of meeting rooms in the Cabinet Office at 70 Whitehall in London, often used for different committees which co-ordinate the actions of bodies within the Government of the United Kingdom | 13:41 |
| corecode | RougeRR: i can't find an official document that says that the UK is trying to get herd immunity as soon as possible | 13:42 |
| RougeRR | crisis rooms uk | 13:42 |
| RougeRR | corecode, the chief health minister said it | 13:42 |
| RougeRR | not as quick as possible | 13:42 |
| RougeRR | but before winter | 13:42 |
| corecode | is that sir patrick? | 13:42 |
| RougeRR | they are not doing everything to stop the spread | 13:42 |
| RougeRR | its a "controlled" spread | 13:42 |
| corecode | yea, flatten the curve | 13:43 |
| corecode | not contain | 13:43 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: https://archive.is/9fUUp | 13:43 |
| commandocrypto[m | if you're not in the UK, it's not gonna come up for you. it's likely that it's soon to be fake news | 13:43 |
| corecode | i think contain has passed | 13:43 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +275 cases (now 149274), +1 deaths (now 5553), +6 recoveries (now 73838) 🔶 Germany: +195 cases (now 3953) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Algeria: +2 recoveries (now 12) 🔸 Australia: +22 cases (now 248) 🔸 Bahrain: +1 cases (now 211), +16 recoveries (now 60) 🔸 Faroe Islands, Denmark: +6 cases (now 9) 🔸 India: +3 cases (now 87) 🔸 Indonesia: +1 deaths (now 5) 🔸 Japan: +16 cases (now 754) 🔸 Kuwa | 13:43 |
| python476 | so if my sneezing and lung weirdness is covid infection | 13:43 |
| python476 | it might be due to my recent interviews in Paris | 13:43 |
| corecode | sneezing unlikely | 13:43 |
| sneep | sneezing isn't a common symptom | 13:43 |
| RougeRR | https://www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5 | 13:43 |
| python476 | not common but not 0 | 13:44 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: correct, china has moved to erradicate | 13:44 |
| corecode | china, south korea, taiwan | 13:44 |
| corecode | at least | 13:44 |
| corecode | israel as well, i think | 13:44 |
| corecode | my guess is they are hoping for a vaccine | 13:44 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | %precautions | 13:45 |
| sneep | over here in japan we're sort of succeeding in keeping it flat | 13:45 |
| python476 | well if you dont see me online in the next few days | 13:45 |
| python476 | Ill be helping "allocating" beds in the nearest hospital | 13:45 |
| corecode | i can't find any primary source | 13:46 |
| python476 | any news about helpfulness of chloroquine to ease the disease ? | 13:46 |
| corecode | bloomberg reporting on sky news reporting | 13:46 |
| RougeRR | vaccine or some kind of treatment | 13:46 |
| corecode | it seems to me that this herd immunity plan is fake news | 13:47 |
| corecode | and probably best not spread | 13:47 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | %treatment | 13:47 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | %vaccine | 13:47 |
| azy | its not fake news for england is it? | 13:50 |
| sneep | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn | 13:51 |
| corecode | seems like it | 13:51 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: if what you're driving at is "immunity is fake news" - yes, you're right. there is lots of scientific evidence that there is as much aquired immunity for this virus as there is for say ... HIV | 13:51 |
| corecode | no, i'm saying the statement that the UK government is trying to get quickly to herd immunity seems to be wrong | 13:51 |
| corecode | i can't find any official statement | 13:51 |
| commandocrypto[m | if anyone has any evidence that it's possible to develop immunity to this disease, i'd love to hear it | 13:52 |
| RougeRR | wow | 13:52 |
| RougeRR | so jersey advice update | 13:52 |
| RougeRR | theyve changed their tune and are going against uk gov | 13:52 |
| RougeRR | advising against all but non essential travel | 13:52 |
| commandocrypto[m | holy shit u might be right corecode | 13:52 |
| RougeRR | large events cancelled | 13:52 |
| commandocrypto[m | explains the weird way in which bojo said it all | 13:52 |
| RougeRR | over 65s or vulnerable conditions to socially isolate | 13:52 |
| azy | my nan doesnt give a fuck. out partying last night | 13:53 |
| RougeRR | https://www.gov.je/News/2020/Pages/CoronavirusLatestAdvice.aspx | 13:53 |
| light | your nan goes out partying? | 13:53 |
| azy | more like in partying, but essentially ye | 13:53 |
| commandocrypto[m | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Peston | 13:54 |
| commandocrypto[m | save the face guys this is the only "official" spokesperson for the wholee herd immunity meme | 13:55 |
| azy | ill put him as my wallpaper | 13:55 |
| commandocrypto[m | oh sorry i should have sent maxres - i assumed most on here only willing to sacrifice 15kB of their shitty spinnydisk | 13:56 |
| commandocrypto[m | i feel bad for him mostly because his wikipedia page has him off by one error'd on his shirt buttons ☹️ and because regardless of if it's fake news, he is a shill for international elite pedos by virtue of his career | 13:58 |
| contingo | what's your parent's reaction RougeRR? | 13:58 |
| RougeRR | contingo, my mother is a bit unsure | 14:02 |
| RougeRR | partly supporting uk | 14:02 |
| RougeRR | partly worried | 14:02 |
| RougeRR | thinks we might be better off getting it earlier if its a long term thing | 14:02 |
| RougeRR | thinks she will be fine and my dad | 14:02 |
| RougeRR | even though both 60 | 14:02 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: so what is your conclusion so far? | 14:02 |
| corecode | the "uk is going for herd immunity now" is fake news? | 14:03 |
| RougeRR | corecode, holy fuck | 14:03 |
| corecode | pretty sure it is | 14:03 |
| RougeRR | the chief medical officer said it | 14:03 |
| RougeRR | not as quickly as possible | 14:03 |
| corecode | can you link his actual statement? | 14:03 |
| RougeRR | but before winter | 14:03 |
| RougeRR | yes let me find it | 14:03 |
| corecode | also not a single line quote | 14:03 |
| corecode | no context = not useful | 14:04 |
| corecode | and yea, what else? it's either herd immunity or perpetual endemic | 14:04 |
| RougeRR | think this is it | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-update-testing-news-herd-immunity-who-uk-cases-map-a9402051.html | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | corecode, well perpetual endemic is essentially herd immunity at a slower pace | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | and hoping for vaccine or treatment sooner | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | it will enable people to keep working | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | im not saying UK is wrong, but its not being put in place correctly | 14:05 |
| corecode | i don't think that's herd immunity | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | and its againt the advise of every other uk gov | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | corecode, it is | 14:05 |
| RougeRR | every news site | 14:06 |
| RougeRR | and the chief medical officer | 14:06 |
| corecode | i mean if you have a perpetual endemic | 14:06 |
| corecode | that's not herd immunity | 14:06 |
| RougeRR | well...it is | 14:06 |
| RougeRR | eventually | 14:06 |
| RougeRR | we will get a vacine | 14:06 |
| corecode | but then it is no longer endemic | 14:06 |
| RougeRR | or a treatment | 14:06 |
| corecode | so, it's one or the other? | 14:06 |
| RougeRR | no | 14:06 |
| corecode | ok | 14:07 |
| RougeRR | we can do slow controlled spread | 14:07 |
| RougeRR | hope for treatment | 14:07 |
| corecode | yes | 14:07 |
| corecode | sure | 14:07 |
| RougeRR | hold out for vaccine | 14:07 |
| corecode | yes | 14:07 |
| corecode | and then establish herd immunity | 14:07 |
| RougeRR | the uk is advocating an accelerated spread | 14:07 |
| corecode | no they are not | 14:07 |
| RougeRR | to get this to happen sooner than if they had in place social distancing etc | 14:07 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeRR: independent article doesn't have the herd immunity meme | 14:07 |
| RougeRR | contingo, literally are | 14:07 |
| corecode | no statement says "we're advocating accelerated spread" | 14:07 |
| corecode | they keep saying "we're trying to slow the spread" | 14:08 |
| corecode | or is that code for accelerated spread? | 14:08 |
| commandocrypto[m | https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-13/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-help-the-uk-beat-coronavirus/ | 14:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:54 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Florida cases increase, Apple shuts stores outside China → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 14:08 |
| corecode | they're saying that social distancing has more impact when done later | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | corecode, in order to allow accelerated spread now | 14:09 |
| corecode | accelerated how? | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | "But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician and former World Health Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases. He quoted Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, who said: “The idea that countries should shif | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | t from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”" | 14:09 |
| corecode | they keep saying stay home if you're sick | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | corecode, by not implemented social distancing | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | you are accelerating | 14:09 |
| corecode | no | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | yes | 14:09 |
| RougeRR | literally | 14:09 |
| corecode | no you're not | 14:10 |
| corecode | you're not slowing down as much | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | okay, so every other country is doing it for a laugh? | 14:10 |
| corecode | no | 14:10 |
| corecode | i'm just talking about meaning of words | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | ... | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | accelerating means to speed up | 14:10 |
| corecode | correct | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | it will speed up if we do nothing | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | in comparison to if we social distance | 14:10 |
| corecode | but that is not accelerating | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | and it will slow done | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | speed up | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | slow down | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | get quicker | 14:10 |
| corecode | it is not to slow down | 14:10 |
| RougeRR | go slower | 14:10 |
| commandocrypto[m | this whole news cycle was bongled by the AI. someone at Palantir is being shouted at in civil servant right now | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | okay, im not going to have this conversation. ive made my point. and im just going to get annoyed with you | 14:11 |
| corecode | okay | 14:11 |
| contingo | are they paying more attention to your viewpoints now RougeRR XD | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | contingo, yeah haha | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | still a bit stiff upper lip | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | but they are social distancing | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | lol | 14:11 |
| commandocrypto[m | (specifically the herd immunity news cycle. look at the wikipedia articles for those invovled and which articles are being scrubbed and what they're being replaced with) | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | "you shouldnt quit your job at the pub"...its not worth it | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | lol! | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | eat | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | their | 14:11 |
| RougeRR | words | 14:11 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: explain? | 14:12 |
| commandocrypto[m | no i said dig and im too in the middle of digging to explain | 14:12 |
| commandocrypto[m | archive.is everything | 14:12 |
| corecode | seems to me that most countries are going for delay, not contain | 14:13 |
| corecode | the UK is nothing special in that regard | 14:13 |
| RougeRR | yet UK is not delaying as they recommend? | 14:14 |
| corecode | they are not? | 14:14 |
| RougeRR | mate | 14:14 |
| RougeRR | just have a look online | 14:14 |
| RougeRR | its everywhere | 14:14 |
| corecode | no primary source = fake news | 14:14 |
| RougeRR | no school closures, no social distancing, only just stopping large events, | 14:14 |
| commandocrypto[m | RougeRR: you might be in a slight bubble | 14:14 |
| commandocrypto[m | https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/ | 14:14 |
| RougeRR | commandocrypto[m, its on every news site | 14:15 |
| sneep | The school closures will come in a couple days I think | 14:15 |
| corecode | seems their plan is to do school closures and social distancing later | 14:15 |
| commandocrypto[m | can anyone archive this?!? FUCK WHY is the internet getting slid so hard | 14:15 |
| RougeRR | corecode, which is exactly that | 14:15 |
| RougeRR | not implementing slow now will bubble out | 14:15 |
| python476 | talking about bubbles | 14:15 |
| python476 | how do you call plastic wrapped bedroom for immuneless persons ? | 14:15 |
| corecode | their point seems to be that if they implement it now, then people will become less compliant in a while, and then they can't use this measure again | 14:16 |
| corecode | python476: you referring to bubble boy? | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | " | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | https://www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5 | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | In another interview with the BBC, Sir Patrick said: “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time.” | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | He added: “Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.” | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | " | 14:16 |
| commandocrypto[m | python476: erm... ur future if u survive certain strains of coronavirus? | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | https://www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5 | 14:16 |
| RougeRR | > " “Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.” | 14:17 |
| RougeRR | UK chief medical officer | 14:17 |
| corecode | yes, flatten the curve | 14:17 |
| RougeRR | direct source | 14:17 |
| RougeRR | yes, but still not as much as they could | 14:17 |
| corecode | yes, not as much | 14:17 |
| commandocrypto[m | these talking heads need to roll once the dust settles | 14:17 |
| RougeRR | they want more of a peak to get more infected before winter | 14:17 |
| RougeRR | corecode, so exactly what ive been saying | 14:17 |
| corecode | i think they should close public transit everywhere if they wanted to contain | 14:17 |
| python476 | corecode: ~bubble boy~ yeah | 14:17 |
| RougeRR | they are not doing everything they should be to contain | 14:18 |
| python476 | commandocrypto[m: I don't understand | 14:18 |
| RougeRR | im not sure what else you want | 14:18 |
| corecode | but clearly containment has failed | 14:18 |
| RougeRR | the writing is on the wall | 14:18 |
| sneep | I think you're somewhat in agreement | 14:18 |
| RougeRR | corecode, clearly | 14:18 |
| corecode | i don't think they ever tried containment | 14:18 |
| python476 | since vaccines will take monthes | 14:18 |
| RougeRR | corecode, you seem to want to disagree on a technicality | 14:18 |
| corecode | outside china/korea/taiwan | 14:18 |
| commandocrypto[m | the honourable Robert Preston and Sir Patrick are just saying shit that can get ppl killed | 14:18 |
| sneep | More or less anyway, and I think corecode correctly pointed out that thing earlier as somewhat fake news | 14:18 |
| RougeRR | the UK is not containing spread as fast as it could | 14:18 |
| python476 | our only strategy would be finding things taming the symptoms ? | 14:19 |
| corecode | RougeRR: yes, they are not | 14:19 |
| python476 | and more cleaning devices | 14:19 |
| RougeRR | corecode, and south korea which is doing the opposite is hailed as doing the best by the WHO | 14:19 |
| corecode | RougeRR: nor are germany, france, switzerland, spain | 14:19 |
| RougeRR | whereas UK is being held up as worst | 14:19 |
| RougeRR | corecode, they are doing way more | 14:19 |
| commandocrypto[m | python476: riht? so --- they deserve to be held accountable for their speech at this point. even in america you can stand in court for yelling fire in a movie theatre | 14:19 |
| corecode | RougeRR: you mean regarding school closures? | 14:19 |
| corecode | i guess it is a difficult tradeoff | 14:20 |
| corecode | who takes care of the kids? | 14:20 |
| RougeRR | corecode, and social distancing | 14:20 |
| RougeRR | and large events | 14:20 |
| commandocrypto[m | how is telling people stuff that will get ppl ded within their right to free speech? | 14:20 |
| corecode | i think all events | 14:20 |
| corecode | people thought it was out of proportion to close the hackspace | 14:20 |
| RougeRR | corecode, this isnt my opinion | 14:20 |
| RougeRR | its everywhere | 14:20 |
| corecode | but fiven observed > 30% growth per day... | 14:20 |
| RougeRR | i dont need to convince you | 14:20 |
| corecode | given* | 14:20 |
| azy | you can just take your kid out of school if you dont want them there, no? | 14:20 |
| RougeRR | you need to look at what is being written about the handling in the UK | 14:20 |
| python476 | commandocrypto[m: you're confused with someone else ?, I don't know what you are talking about. | 14:20 |
| corecode | i think we agree on the measures that should be taken | 14:21 |
| corecode | but of course we don't know about the psychology of compliance | 14:21 |
| RougeRR | corecode, the government is speculating | 14:21 |
| corecode | if people can only comply for two weeks, when is the best time to ask people to do so? | 14:21 |
| sneep | Many people who talked to commandocrypto[m today ended up not knowing what they're talking about :p | 14:21 |
| RougeRR | " | 14:22 |
| RougeRR | The U.K.'s approach means many healthy people in the country have to get the disease—while keeping the fatality rate as low as possible. It's a marked break with the approach in much of the rest of the world, which is to stop people from getting coronavirus, period." | 14:22 |
| sneep | (No offense, just a suggestion to relax a little bit maybe) | 14:22 |
| commandocrypto[m | python476: you asked me a question | 14:22 |
| commandocrypto[m | can i take a second and ask that pople avoid one line responses for a little while until the chat slows down a bit. thank you! | 14:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:11 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Hospitals cancel elective surgeries, small businesses get pummeled → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 14:22 |
| RougeRR | ""I've been talking to other academics, science journalists, private companies, & gov't people all of today and still struggling to understand this," Devi Sridhar, Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh tweeted. "The gov't seems to be following flu playbook strategy. But this is not the flu. COVID-19 is much worse & health outcomes are sobering." | 14:22 |
| RougeRR | " | 14:22 |
| corecode | RougeRR: other governments might not say it, but it's clear that nobody is trying to prevent the spread | 14:22 |
| RougeRR | https://fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/ | 14:22 |
| RougeRR | corecode, k | 14:23 |
| corecode | which is concerning | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | "It's a strategy that relies heavily on mathematical modeling and a government behavioral insights team, known by the nickname the "nudge unit", for their use of a psychological theory to "nudge" people towards certain behaviors—like paying their taxes, or staying home when they feel sick. | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | But the announced new measures, which are far less strict than those other nations' have imposed, paired with the emphasis on herd immunity, also provoked staunch criticism from both well-known virologists and epidemiologists, and politicians, including Conservatives. | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | " | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | so everything i have said is confirmed herer | 14:23 |
| corecode | but i have food in storage | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | you can disagree | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | or think that uk s right | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | they might be | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | but they are allowing this to spread more than other countries | 14:23 |
| RougeRR | to move the peak | 14:24 |
| corecode | it's odd tho | 14:24 |
| corecode | how would they move the peak if they delay measures? | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | i really hope uk is right | 14:24 |
| corecode | that argument did not make sense to me | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | corecode, they would bring it forward | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | into summer | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | instead of winter | 14:24 |
| corecode | how? | 14:24 |
| corecode | ooooh | 14:24 |
| corecode | what? | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | by infecting more now | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | yes | 14:24 |
| corecode | noooo | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | that is the plan | 14:24 |
| phil | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41569-020-0360-5 | 14:24 |
| RougeRR | they want to level the curve off but not totally stop it | 14:25 |
| corecode | sure | 14:25 |
| RougeRR | so it peaks earlier and more have it earlier | 14:25 |
| corecode | that's where we are at | 14:25 |
| RougeRR | and they peak in summer | 14:25 |
| RougeRR | it is an acceleration aproach | 14:25 |
| RougeRR | in a controlled way | 14:25 |
| commandocrypto[m | phil: ya that's a good paper - note that most of your ACE2 receptors are in the testes | 14:25 |
| RougeRR | or less deceleration | 14:25 |
| corecode | then i must have misunderstood | 14:25 |
| python476 | commandocrypto[m: I don't remember asking you a question, what was it ? | 14:25 |
| python476 | I think the matrix bot has a bug | 14:25 |
| RougeRR | they are not slamming on the brakes they are easing off the accelerator | 14:25 |
| RougeRR | its being widely regarded as a risky strategy that goes against world health guidance | 14:26 |
| corecode | from their press conference, it sounded like that they want to delay now, but put in drastic measures in a while (some weeks?), when those measures have a higher impact | 14:26 |
| RougeRR | it might be the right approach | 14:26 |
| RougeRR | corecode, yep...because they seem to be lying a bit | 14:26 |
| corecode | i didn't get the winter part | 14:26 |
| RougeRR | or hiding the truth | 14:26 |
| corecode | i can't assume they are lying | 14:26 |
| RougeRR | not telling the full story | 14:26 |
| corecode | because then everything is questionable | 14:26 |
| corecode | i have a hunch tho | 14:27 |
| RougeRR | corecode, have you followed politics for last few years | 14:27 |
| RougeRR | ... | 14:27 |
| RougeRR | lying is their way | 14:27 |
| corecode | hang on | 14:27 |
| corecode | maybe i can chart it | 14:27 |
| RougeRR | they are likely not lying out right | 14:27 |
| corecode | if you're interested | 14:27 |
| CatButtes[m] | RougeRR: you have to consider incompetence combined with collective responsibility | 14:28 |
| RougeRR | im not sure what you mean | 14:28 |
| corecode | of course i'm hobbled by not being an epidemiologist | 14:28 |
| RougeRR | CatButtes[m], what do you mean? | 14:28 |
| RougeRR | i think you know | 14:28 |
| RougeRR | but just confirm | 14:28 |
| commandocrypto[m | python476: it wasn't a question actually. you said "i don't understand" to me directly. i assumed that this was in regards to my comment about these talking heads who are trying to convince the UK population that this is a good idea. and that's why i started talking to you about the limits of free speech | 14:28 |
| commandocrypto[m | namely that if you're gonna claim a "right honourable" position of respect, and you endanger many lives (actually no, you get ppl killed because they will die), then you should stand in court for it | 14:28 |
| phil | commandocrypto[m: source for that? Ace2 receptors are found more in women than in men | 14:28 |
| corecode | they are? | 14:29 |
| CatButtes[m] | The people at the top are incompetent and have made a bad call. But because of collective responsibility nobody involved can publicly call them out on it | 14:29 |
| corecode | because of the adipose tissue? | 14:29 |
| RougeRR | CatButtes[m], quite possible | 14:30 |
| RougeRR | but what about all the talk of herd immunity tactics | 14:30 |
| RougeRR | you think its a cover? | 14:30 |
| commandocrypto[m | @phil sorry i should have said testes and ovaries. I presimed ur gender | 14:30 |
| RougeRR | for their incompetence | 14:30 |
| python476 | commandocrypto[m: oh that was because you said this "python476: erm... ur future if u survive certain strains of coronavirus?" <= | 14:31 |
| phil | Any evidence of ovarian or testicular dysfunction is SARS or MERS? | 14:31 |
| dunnp | no | 14:32 |
| RougeRR | i feel the uk gov have let the cat out the bag | 14:32 |
| RougeRR | and this was not meant to happen for a while | 14:32 |
| dunnp | I dont think that there is an ovarian expression of ACE2 | 14:33 |
| commandocrypto[m | @freenode_python476:matrix.org: yes i was taking ur question about plastic rooms for immunodefficieny ppl as a thetorical question or a joke. And i answered seriously as many ppl are left in a compromised state after coronavirus | 14:33 |
| corecode | RougeRR: i think they just didn't put it in the bag yet | 14:34 |
| corecode | same for carnival in switzerland and germany | 14:34 |
| RougeRR | i meant their plan | 14:34 |
| corecode | ah | 14:34 |
| RougeRR | not the virus | 14:34 |
| corecode | can you contrast with some other european country's plan (except italy)? | 14:34 |
| dunnp | also not sure that ACE2 in testes is translated | 14:34 |
| corecode | i wish to see a good plan | 14:34 |
| dunnp | testes has high expression of lots of genes | 14:35 |
| dunnp | almsot all genes | 14:35 |
| RougeRR | is anyone very weirded out by thefact herd immunity is not on bbc | 14:35 |
| RougeRR | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk | 14:35 |
| corecode | no, because i interpret their statements differently | 14:35 |
| corecode | of course they're going for herd immunity in the long run | 14:35 |
| corecode | what else? | 14:35 |
| corecode | containment is impossible now | 14:35 |
| RougeRR | corecode, vaccine and wait for other treatments | 14:35 |
| RougeRR | or china | 14:36 |
| RougeRR | china contained | 14:36 |
| corecode | yes but vaccine is herd immunity | 14:36 |
| RougeRR | by a vaccine | 14:36 |
| corecode | yes correct | 14:36 |
| RougeRR | not by infection | 14:36 |
| corecode | we agree | 14:36 |
| commandocrypto[m | Anyone got source on more ace2 in women than men? It would get rid of all the incel conspiracy theories about the virus hitting chinese men harder (i think the numbers are explained by demograohics in hubei and china) | 14:36 |
| dunnp | starting to see more long-term lung damage potential in recovery cases | 14:36 |
| azy | there is no vaccine though | 14:36 |
| dunnp | if that is the case, we still have to stop spread | 14:36 |
| azy | and how long until there's a safe one? | 14:36 |
| RougeRR | azy, dont know | 14:36 |
| RougeRR | early next year | 14:36 |
| corecode | they say a year | 14:36 |
| RougeRR | maybe sooner | 14:36 |
| RougeRR | might have treatment before though | 14:37 |
| corecode | i don't want to get it, but the chances are slim | 14:37 |
| contingo | Forsythia | 14:37 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: another way of looking at it is: vaccine is the opposite of herd immunity. vaccines helped us erradicate many viruses - kinda the opposite of herd immunity (but i know what you mean - had this shower thought a few weeks ago lol) | 14:37 |
| azy | cant we just lock down the vulnerable people? via them self-isolating | 14:38 |
| azy | everyone else's body kicks this thing's ass, no? | 14:38 |
| corecode | commandocrypto[m: i don't see it that way. herd immunity means that the chain of spread is stopped by immunity, no matter how aquired | 14:39 |
| commandocrypto[m | azy: SARS1 vaccine took 18 years before they gave up - this virus is significantly more complicated and has already shown much more success in mutating so..... a few decades (assuming lots of economic grown and money to spend on it) | 14:39 |
| corecode | we mostly have herd immunity to measles, but by vaccination | 14:39 |
| corecode | azy: my mom is still going outside | 14:39 |
| azy | does she need the government to enforce good decisions for her? | 14:40 |
| corecode | evidently | 14:40 |
| commandocrypto[m | corecode: oh ya totally i agree - but in the sense of - is there any more smallpox in the wild after immunisation has elliminated and erradicated it? no | 14:41 |
| commandocrypto[m | the challenge that china is accepting is that of erradicating using soldiers, black bags, cattle prods and lots and lots of bleach spray in lieu of any vaccine forthcoming | 14:41 |
| corecode | does smallpox have an animal reservoir? | 14:41 |
| corecode | any diesase with animal reservoir can't be erradicated | 14:42 |
| sneep | SARS1 had less than 1000 cases and subsided after a couple months, I doubt people put significant resources into developing a vaccine | 14:42 |
| sneep | Ah sorry, about 8000 cases | 14:42 |
| python476 | what temperature is required to kill airborne pathogens ? | 14:43 |
| contingo | corecode: no it doesn't | 14:44 |
| darsie | my flat mate went by public transportation to meet friends in a park. I stayed home. | 14:44 |
| commandocrypto[m | sneep: there was a LOT of funding allocated for it initially. and that managed to keep work on it going for like i said almost 2 decades. but i agree that this will get more long-term funding than SARS - i am just trying to make it very clear that this whole "vaccine in 18 months" is a total swan song | 14:44 |
| commandocrypto[m | python476: MERS transmits in desert temperatures. the scientist who isolated it said that it remained viable up to 110 degrees (F) | 14:45 |
| dunnp | commandocrypto[m: this virus isnt more complicated than SARS1.. | 14:46 |
| dunnp | nor has it shown more mutations | 14:46 |
| python476 | commandocrypto[m: thanks, so an electric device heating a tiny air pipe to 200+ degC would sanitize | 14:47 |
| azy | joe rogan asked that guy about a 180deg sauna, and the guy was like 'your lungs would burn' | 14:49 |
| azy | i think joe was on F while the other guy was on C | 14:49 |
| phil | How much does body temp rise in a sauna? | 14:50 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +367 cases (now 149862), +53 deaths (now 5610), +3 recoveries (now 73840) 🔶 Netherlands: +155 cases (now 959), +2 deaths (now 12) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Algeria: +2 recoveries (now 12) 🔸 Australia: +24 cases (now 250), +1 recoveries (now 27) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +20 cases (now 112) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +11 cases (now 46) 🔸 South Australia, Australia: +3 cases (now 19) 🔸 Victo | 14:50 |
| python476 | azy: heh, unit | 14:50 |
| phil | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3218894 | 14:51 |
| phil | Says around 1C | 14:52 |
| python476 | 1C ? | 14:53 |
| python476 | 1degC only ? | 14:53 |
| python476 | I guess it cant rise much more .. | 14:53 |
| phil | Body temp is pretty highly regulated | 14:54 |
| python476 | yeah I didnt think hard | 14:54 |
| phil | And fevers *are* a response to pathogens | 14:54 |
| phil | Because of that example | 14:54 |
| phil | Another question is how high are bats' body temperature | 14:57 |
| corecode | higher, probably | 14:57 |
| phil | It's a fair deduction that if it can survive in bats with a higher body temp, it should be able to survive in humans with a higher body temp, right? | 14:58 |
| sneep | https://www.livescience.com/44870-bats-viruses-flight.html take w/ grain of salt | 14:58 |
| sneep | %title | 14:58 |
| Brainstorm | sneep: Couldn't load page from www.livescience.com (416: Requested Range Not Satisfiable). | 14:58 |
| Tangent-Man[m] | https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 | 14:59 |
| dunnp | yea phil I'd agree with that | 15:03 |
| contingo | %cases UK | 15:05 |
| Brainstorm | contingo: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 798 cases, 11 deaths (1.4% of cases), 18 recoveries as of March 14, 14:00Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 15:05 |
| LjL | :) | 15:06 |
| fujisan | LjL did you food hoard? | 15:06 |
| LjL | Not particularly | 15:06 |
| python476 | phil: I wouldn't draw a link that fast | 15:07 |
| python476 | maybe heat has different influences on our bodies and bats | 15:07 |
| python476 | different cells, proteins, enzymes | 15:07 |
| darsie | %data austria | 15:07 |
| Brainstorm | darsie: In all areas, Austria, there are 602 cases, 1 deaths (0.2% of cases), 6 recoveries as of March 14, 11:53Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Austria for time series data. | 15:07 |
| fujisan | i,m the roomowner of the 2009 pandemic | 15:09 |
| fujisan | swineflu | 15:09 |
| fujisan | anyone remember it | 15:09 |
| JtH | cool now all we need is patient zero ;-) | 15:10 |
| contingo | yes fondly | 15:11 |
| fujisan | ty contingo | 15:12 |
| fujisan | 2009 swineflu was worse than corona | 15:12 |
| python476 | not in terms of stats | 15:13 |
| fujisan | how do i wipe without toiletpaper? | 15:15 |
| darsie | 36.3 C. Something is wrong. My normal temperature is 36.8. | 15:16 |
| fujisan | it's all sold out | 15:16 |
| fujisan | darsie any clues | 15:16 |
| fujisan | how to wipe without tp | 15:16 |
| LjL | darsie: your normal temperature fluctuates during the day, and through different days | 15:16 |
| darsie | fujisan: Sit on the bathtub and shower your bum. Use your hand, too. | 15:16 |
| darsie | LjL: I'm not a woman. | 15:17 |
| LjL | darsie: okay...? | 15:17 |
| fujisan | if this continues the virus will mutate because people have no tp | 15:17 |
| LjL | Yes that does sound like a top priority | 15:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 14:14 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Spain bans all travel except getting food → https://is.gd/GmumIh | 15:18 |
| contingo | ah good so my trip to El Celler de Can Roca is unaffected | 15:19 |
| fujisan | if i run out of tp im going to poop in rich peoples gardens | 15:20 |
| fujisan | they hoard the most | 15:20 |
| fujisan | with their 10 bathrooms | 15:20 |
| corecode | oh darsie is in here | 15:22 |
| darsie | 3 | 15:22 |
| LjL | fujisan: stay classy | 15:22 |
| darsie | . | 15:22 |
| fujisan | LjL: i agree it;s a class thing | 15:22 |
| corecode | the rich have the bathrooms, the poor the toilet paper? | 15:23 |
| fujisan | the rich probably dont need tp | 15:23 |
| fujisan | because of bidets | 15:23 |
| fujisan | im going to poop where the dogs poo | 15:23 |
| fujisan | protest pooping will be a 2020s hype | 15:24 |
| LjL | How about you do it wherever you feel it appropriate but keep this channel less shitty | 15:24 |
| fujisan | can you sell me any tp? | 15:24 |
| corecode | i'm trying to model an epidemiological spread, with different interventions at different times | 15:25 |
| fujisan | dont try just do it | 15:25 |
| corecode | say, assuming people will comply with social distancing only for two weeks | 15:25 |
| corecode | i'm trying and not doing, because julia is crashing with a segfault when installing dataframes | 15:25 |
| dunnp | LjL: can I pm? | 15:25 |
| LjL | dunnp, go ahead | 15:26 |
| fujisan | LjL: sorry i will avoid the TP topic | 15:26 |
| fujisan | maybe we should all stop outsourcing production to china | 15:26 |
| corecode | some | 15:27 |
| corecode | what's the problem with outsourcing? | 15:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:29 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Hospitals cancel elective surgeries, small businesses get pummeled → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 15:31 |
| dunnp | we've actually got a ton of TP again. it was just a few days of empty shelves | 15:33 |
| python476 | fujisan: I'm typing this on a TP | 15:35 |
| python476 | TP 430i | 15:35 |
| fujisan | :'( | 15:35 |
| python476 | bidet sales went up | 15:36 |
| python476 | man the poor companies predictions | 15:36 |
| python476 | nothing is what people thought 2020 would be | 15:36 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +430 cases (now 150292), +11 deaths (now 5621), +10 recoveries (now 73850) 🔶 United Kingdom: +342 cases (now 1140), +10 deaths (now 21) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Algeria: +2 recoveries (now 12) 🔸 Australia: +24 cases (now 250), +1 recoveries (now 27) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +20 cases (now 112) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +11 cases (now 46) 🔸 South Australia, Australia: +3 cases (now 19) 🔸 | 15:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 14:42 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Nicholas Kristof su Twitter: "A hospital in Seattle area has sent out a note to staff, shared with me, suspending elective surgery and warning that "our local COVID-19 trajectory is likely to be similar to that of Northern Italy." The hospital is down to a four-day supply of gloves." → https://is.gd/HfTFk7 | 15:45 |
| ALT_F4 | Hi again all | 15:47 |
| ALT_F4 | Coronavirus specific GPU projects are now available at folding@home. CPU projects coming ASAP. Join us in fighting against Covid-19! - https://foldingathome.org/start-folding/ | 15:48 |
| dunnp | ALT_F4: can you tell us about what the project is? | 15:49 |
| python476 | crowdsourcing protein folding computation | 15:49 |
| mirsal | dunnp: afaik it's distributed protein folding computations | 15:49 |
| dunnp | right but I mean the goal | 15:50 |
| ALT_F4 | You can donate your unused GPU and CPU computing power to fight against Coronavirus (and several other illnesses, like Cancer, Parkinson's, etc). | 15:50 |
| python476 | dunnp: well help finding information about covid surface proteins probably | 15:50 |
| ALT_F4 | End goal is research to produce a vaccine. | 15:50 |
| ALT_F4 | There is a reddit post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/pcmasterrace/comments/fhb5e4/coronavirus_specific_gpu_projects_are_now/ | 15:50 |
| dunnp | so is it testing antibodies? | 15:50 |
| dunnp | k thanks | 15:50 |
| ALT_F4 | Current Corona specific projects: | 15:51 |
| ALT_F4 | 11741: Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 causing virus) receptor binding domain in complex with human receptor ACE2. | 15:51 |
| ALT_F4 | 11746: Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 causing virus) receptor binding domain in complex with human receptor ACE2 (alternative structure to 11741). | 15:51 |
| ALT_F4 | 11742: Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 causing virus) protease in complex with an inhibitor. | 15:51 |
| ALT_F4 | 11743: Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 causing virus) protease – potential drug target. | 15:51 |
| ALT_F4 | 11744: Coronavirus SARS-CoV (SARS causing virus) receptor binding domain trapped by a SARS-CoV S230 antibody. | 15:51 |
| ALT_F4 | 11745: Coronavirus SARS-CoV (SARS causing virus) receptor binding domain mutated to the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 causing virus) trapped by a SARS-CoV S230 antibody. | 15:51 |
| LjL | it's a project that has existed for a long time independent of coronavirus, but i understand now they've redirected all resources to coronavirus-related matters | 15:51 |
| ALT_F4 | Yes | 15:52 |
| ALT_F4 | Owned by Stanford University | 15:52 |
| dunnp | yep I am very familiar with the project but was interested in what they were trying to predict (answered above) | 15:53 |
| darsie | ALT_F4: I can't find coronavirus on boinc. | 15:56 |
| ALT_F4 | All info is in the subreddit | 15:57 |
| ALT_F4 | It only uses GPU at this point | 15:57 |
| berndj | are there examples of other diseases where herd immunity was achieved "naturally"? like maybe before the vaccine age | 15:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Hospitals cancel elective surgeries, small businesses get pummeled → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 15:59 |
| dunnp | ALT_F4: are you one of the researchers involved? | 15:59 |
| pwr22 | <ALT_F4 "Coronavirus specific GPU project"> There are more projects now including CPU 👍️ | 16:00 |
| skyofdust | berndj: waiting for herd immunity means "we won't do shit about the virus" | 16:00 |
| berndj | skyofdust, yes i know that, but that isn't an answer to my question | 16:00 |
| pwr22 | Humans have herd immunity to many strains of flu, but it mutates a lot because of that | 16:01 |
| dunnp | smallpox was herd immunity right? | 16:01 |
| berndj | i thought smallpox was vaccinated away | 16:01 |
| ALT_F4 | No, I'm not a researcher. | 16:01 |
| berndj | i'm asking for specifically non-vaccine examples | 16:01 |
| ALT_F4 | I joined the channel last night, I work in the NHS :) | 16:02 |
| Biep[m] | Vaccination creates herd immunity. | 16:02 |
| dunnp | it was but in europe there was herd immunity before the vaccine i think | 16:02 |
| ALT_F4 | More info in the git also: https://github.com/FoldingAtHome/coronavirus | 16:02 |
| berndj | Biep[m], yes i know, but again, that doesn't answer my question | 16:02 |
| python476 | berndj: IIRC it was vaccine+quarantine | 16:02 |
| python476 | one solid source of inspiration.. long and wide effort | 16:03 |
| python476 | and almost no buzz.. unlike today things | 16:03 |
| Biep[m] | The Pied Piper event: the second time the plague came around it only took the children born since. | 16:03 |
| Biep[m] | (Pied Piper = bubonic (pied) and lung (piper) plague.) | 16:03 |
| pwr22 | !cases | 16:03 |
| pwr22 | We've hit 150k now | 16:03 |
| dunnp | nope I'm wrong | 16:03 |
| Biep[m] | And it first took the rats out, of course. | 16:04 |
| Biep[m] | <pwr22 "We've hit 150k now"> Who is the lucky winner? | 16:04 |
| sneep | 23:26 < fujisan> maybe we should all stop outsourcing production to china <-- is toilet paper actually imported from china where you live? | 16:04 |
| pwr22 | Biep: I didn't know the pied piper story was based on reality | 16:04 |
| berndj | Biep[m], cool, thanks, that's a nice high-profile example | 16:04 |
| berndj | although, can we really call that *herd immunity*? | 16:05 |
| berndj | it still spread throughout the non-immune population | 16:05 |
| Biep[m] | Yes. There still is the *Bungelose gasse* in Hameln, where the children were carried to their grave - or in the story, where the Piper took them never to be seen again. The "no-music street". Even bridal processions will be silent there. | 16:05 |
| pwr22 | Just tried out the message pinning in matrix | 16:07 |
| dunnp | my TP says made in the USA on it | 16:07 |
| RougeR | contingo, | 16:07 |
| dunnp | from imported materials | 16:07 |
| RougeR | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Etlyvt9n_QE | 16:07 |
| RougeR | new John Campbell video | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:10 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Spain to impose nationwide lockdown, Trump attends meetings at White House → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 16:13 |
| python476 | any news on china reported cases ? | 16:13 |
| python476 | are they really that flat ? | 16:13 |
| RougeR | 8 | 16:14 |
| RougeR | so john campbell condemming UK gov | 16:15 |
| RougeR | WHO condemming uk gov | 16:15 |
| pwr22 | !cases china | 16:15 |
| pwr22 | recovery rate is coming up but whether or not we trust that is another thing | 16:15 |
| pwr22 | I'm inclined to myself | 16:15 |
| RougeR | I am too | 16:15 |
| python476 | no ! china is lying | 16:16 |
| RougeR | i think skepticism is healthy | 16:16 |
| dunnp | http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074988/coronavirus-some-recovered-patients-may-have | 16:16 |
| python476 | it's lying in bed with the trooth | 16:16 |
| dunnp | this news would be bad for a herd immunity plan | 16:16 |
| pwr22 | On the other hand, they've achieved it by preventing spread so they'll have to maintain lockdown till we have a vaccine and can immunise everyone or there's risk of resurgences | 16:16 |
| python476 | we have to invent a new economy where people can move | 16:16 |
| pwr22 | Especially when international travel starts up again | 16:16 |
| pwr22 | So not sure how they will handle that really | 16:16 |
| RougeR | also interesting | 16:17 |
| RougeR | sort of | 16:17 |
| RougeR | "Health authorities said the blood test for the world’s first dog thought to have contracted the virus came in negative, although its oral and nasal swabs continued to show “weak positive”. Blood tests for Covid-19 detect antibodies specific to the disease, thereby confirming an infection." | 16:17 |
| RougeR | pwr22, they need to maintain social distancing | 16:17 |
| RougeR | not lockdown | 16:17 |
| LjL | pwr22, i don't really look at recoveries because each country seems to be calculating them very differently, or not even very consistently at all. some graphs are all over the place. | 16:17 |
| pwr22 | Yeah, china seem to be actually recording them though | 16:19 |
| RougeR | "it is patently obvious that the advice from the UK government and the advice from the WHO are contradictory " | 16:19 |
| pwr22 | RougeR: in practice its too contagious to contain fully with that | 16:19 |
| pwr22 | And people will become lax over time, especially if they themselves are no longer at risk | 16:19 |
| RougeR | pwr22, buys us time | 16:19 |
| RougeR | the WHO recommends it | 16:20 |
| RougeR | south korea is doing it | 16:20 |
| RougeR | every other country in the world | 16:20 |
| RougeR | but the UK is special? | 16:20 |
| RougeR | i hope so | 16:20 |
| pwr22 | Yeah, I'm more thinking about what China is going to do when recoveries are 100% | 16:20 |
| LjL | between the WHO and the UK government, honestly, i wouldn't know whom to trust less at this point | 16:20 |
| RougeR | pwr22, they will need to keep on top of it | 16:20 |
| RougeR | LjL, UK gov | 16:20 |
| LjL | the WHO has hardly been super helpful | 16:20 |
| RougeR | no questions | 16:20 |
| RougeR | we need to stop the spread at least till we know more and can research further | 16:21 |
| RougeR | if we delay we get more chance of treatment options | 16:21 |
| RougeR | more time to prepare | 16:21 |
| RougeR | we are also hindering other countries by not containing | 16:21 |
| RougeR | and that is very selfish | 16:21 |
| RougeR | just because we want to go against the grain with a different approach, we have decided to scupper every other country? | 16:22 |
| pwr22 | I think the UK doing it if the whole rest of the world does manage containment will be bad for the UK because it'll be a potential source of resurgence | 16:22 |
| RougeR | this will result in UK travel bans imposed unilaterally i suspect | 16:22 |
| pwr22 | A reservoir | 16:22 |
| pwr22 | But I don't think there's a hope in hell of the rest of the world fully containing it now so I dunno which way things will go | 16:22 |
| azy | https://youtu.be/Etlyvt9n_QE | 16:22 |
| azy | i like this guy | 16:22 |
| RougeR | pwr22, we wont containe | 16:22 |
| RougeR | we will slow | 16:22 |
| RougeR | azy, yeah im watching his updates atm | 16:23 |
| RougeR | he got a lot of flack yesterday | 16:23 |
| pwr22 | I don't distrust the modelling that scientists we have are doing personally 🤷♂️ | 16:23 |
| berndj | i don't think the UK plan is wrong-in-principle, but i do think the parameters are wrong so it's gonna blow up in their faces | 16:23 |
| RougeR | pwr22, so you distrust every other countries modelling? | 16:23 |
| RougeR | have the UK scientists released there modelling for scrutiny? | 16:23 |
| pwr22 | No.... not every country is in the exact same position | 16:23 |
| RougeR | berndj, it could work in principle | 16:24 |
| pwr22 | Nor do I have any reason to believe there aren't multiple paths of mitigation | 16:24 |
| RougeR | pwr22, but we are stopping further mitigation | 16:24 |
| RougeR | unless we close borders | 16:24 |
| RougeR | we are going to spread to others | 16:24 |
| pwr22 | UK scientists have the best data on the UK and have fit a model that seems to agree so they recommend what they have | 16:24 |
| RougeR | this is about other countries | 16:24 |
| pwr22 | Other countries have done the exact same process | 16:24 |
| RougeR | pwr22, and the UK is unique why? | 16:24 |
| RougeR | what is different about us that makes the model different? | 16:25 |
| RougeR | could it be our lack of social care and support? | 16:25 |
| RougeR | could it be the dire state of the nHS? | 16:25 |
| pwr22 | That's like asking why two different people have different ideas | 16:25 |
| RougeR | pwr22, its not | 16:25 |
| RougeR | its asking to see the model | 16:25 |
| pwr22 | I'm not going to try and give a formal proof on that | 16:25 |
| RougeR | i think thats what they need to do | 16:25 |
| RougeR | they need to release all the data | 16:25 |
| pwr22 | Yeah IMO if everything was fully public it would be better | 16:26 |
| RougeR | its the only way imo | 16:26 |
| RougeR | you cant go against WHO advice and not release your modelling for scrutiny | 16:26 |
| corecode | clearly they can :) | 16:26 |
| pwr22 | Well I'm out of this convo again anyway, maybe I'll work on the bot some more | 16:26 |
| RougeR | yeah clearly./... | 16:26 |
| corecode | but it would be good if they did release their models | 16:26 |
| LjL | pwr22, i think it's a bit disingenuous to assume it's *purely* based on medical science... the UK approach seems to betray more concern for the economy than for keeping the most people alive. now a bad economy may itself kill more people in a sense, but when it comes to that, it's a political decision, not a scientific one | 16:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 15:14 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: US military bans all domestic US internal travel for servicemembers and their families → https://is.gd/xVMde3 | 16:27 |
| corecode | so i managed to plot an epidemic curve | 16:27 |
| corecode | but i don't know what the average recovery period is | 16:27 |
| pwr22 | <LjL "Peter Roberts, i think it's a bi"> I don't agree but I do think you're right that economic considerations were probably part of the modelling 👍️ | 16:28 |
| corecode | it seems they are concerned that the citizens won't comply with severe measures for a long time | 16:28 |
| corecode | and certainly not repeadedly | 16:28 |
| LjL | corecode, Italians aren't complying very well for now | 16:29 |
| corecode | they aren't? | 16:29 |
| RougeR | corecode, thats a cover | 16:29 |
| RougeR | and again | 16:29 |
| corecode | RougeR: do you have proof of that? | 16:29 |
| RougeR | corecode, | 16:29 |
| RougeR | watch | 16:29 |
| RougeR | this | 16:29 |
| RougeR | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Etlyvt9n_QE | 16:29 |
| pwr22 | We'll find out how it goes anyway - it's not like we have any ability to change this and I just want to have a little bit of faith that not every human being making decisions on the coronavirus management in the UK is a sociopath | 16:29 |
| RougeR | pwr22, well...you say that? | 16:29 |
| RougeR | we do | 16:29 |
| RougeR | we can write, we can protest | 16:29 |
| RougeR | we can go against advice | 16:29 |
| pwr22 | The first will be ignored | 16:30 |
| RougeR | i would not be suprised to see that start | 16:30 |
| LjL | corecode, not really. at first there was a rush to trains to flee Lombardy and go (back?) to other regions, when the first restrictions were limited to Lombardy and other parts of the north... and the Civil Protection says that they expect this to reflect in the numbers in the coming days, sadly: it'll spread it further. and now subjectively, here in Milan, i've seen too many people around, and so has my sister | 16:30 |
| pwr22 | the second would be doing the opposite of what you want and doing what the gov wants.... | 16:30 |
| pwr22 | the third would be good 👍️ | 16:30 |
| pwr22 | But IMO it's too early to get the pitchforks | 16:30 |
| RougeR | pwr22, protest does not have to be close quarters | 16:30 |
| RougeR | protest can take many forms | 16:30 |
| RougeR | the third could be setting up community hospitals | 16:31 |
| RougeR | isolating towns | 16:31 |
| RougeR | villages | 16:31 |
| RougeR | cities | 16:31 |
| RougeR | what will the gov do? | 16:31 |
| pwr22 | That we have the internet and communication channels like IRC and matrix are good too imo, it lets us honestly discuss things | 16:31 |
| RougeR | i agree | 16:31 |
| RougeR | ooh that could get dark | 16:31 |
| RougeR | imagine if/when a country pulls the plug | 16:31 |
| LjL | well i haven't been exchanging opinions with many people in China | 16:32 |
| pwr22 | Yeah sadly china / russia / a few others / have less ability to share | 16:33 |
| pwr22 | Matrix in china is an interesting thing, because it essentially means if there's a single route out of china then messages should still be possible to get through | 16:33 |
| LjL | many Russians on freenode though. but i don't think there is much perception of a danger in Russia for now | 16:35 |
| LjL | pwr22, even Tor is very very hard to access in China these days though, so i wouldn't necessarily count on even a single route being available :\ | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +134 cases (now 150426), +1 deaths (now 5622), +5 recoveries (now 73855) 🔸 Afghanistan: +1 cases (now 11) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Algeria: +2 recoveries (now 12) 🔸 Australia: +24 cases (now 250), +1 recoveries (now 27) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +20 cases (now 112) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +11 cases (now 46) 🔸 South Australia, Australia: +3 cases (now 19) 🔸 Victoria, Australia: +13 cases | 16:38 |
| sneep | Course, the Russians got vaccinated before releasing the virus ;) You saw it here first! | 16:44 |
| sneep | (notsureifthiskindofhumorisappropriate.gif) | 16:45 |
| LjL | sneep, long as no slidercrank around | 16:47 |
| sneep | hehe | 16:48 |
| berndj | what's the timeline of what tests are useful when? i'm ill with <something>, and it sorta matches what a mild case of covid-19, but if i only get a PCR test at the earliest sometime next week, would that even be useful? i don't know if serological tests are available in my country (and suspect they aren't, yet) | 16:48 |
| sneep | if you have symptoms, go into self isolation | 16:49 |
| berndj | i am | 16:49 |
| sneep | what do you mean by useful? | 16:49 |
| berndj | well it's no use doing a PCR test if i've eliminated the virus by then, is it? | 16:49 |
| python476 | sneep let's all be pilgrims to cernobyl for high rate sanitization | 16:51 |
| sneep | berndj: Most countries have strict requirements that have to be fulfilled to be eligible for a test | 16:53 |
| sneep | Best check what the requirements are in your country, and if you're eligible, take the test | 16:53 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: yo what does this last chart mean | 16:53 |
| berndj | sneep, yeah, in my country only people who, in addition to having symptoms, have traveled or have had contact with such people, get a free test | 16:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:53 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Regno Unito → https://is.gd/vXcErJ | 16:54 |
| berndj | but i think you can get tested at your own cost (i don't know if those at-cost tests are similarly prioritized) | 16:55 |
| fructose | berndj: Viral shedding has been observed in survivors for as long as 37 days | 16:55 |
| berndj | sneep, my question is about the nature of the test. specifically by the way i feel now, if this even is a sars-cov-2 infection, i'm "worried" it might not show up by the time i can get a test | 16:56 |
| fructose | berndj: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext | 16:56 |
| berndj | fructose, ah thanks, that's useful to know. but how common is that? | 16:56 |
| fructose | Presumably uncommon since that was the longest observed | 16:56 |
| berndj | just in case i spat into a test tube and put it in the freezer | 16:56 |
| berndj | closed, of course. and contained in another bottle with 90% ethanol in the space between layers of glass | 16:57 |
| pwr22 | berndj: future chemical weapon 😭 | 16:58 |
| sneep | berndj: Not sure if there is anything to worry about in your case | 17:00 |
| berndj | pwr22, hah. yeah, i'll kill it ded when this all blows over | 17:01 |
| berndj | sneep, you mean nothing to worry about as in getting a false negative result? | 17:02 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1600895 | 17:02 |
| sneep | If you've fought it off and test negative, that doesn't mean it's a false negative | 17:02 |
| pwr22 | It's like the intro to a movie - you kill it but a single viron remains - floats out and gets inhaled by a pidgeon - then a graphic of avian flu and sars-cov-2 intermingling - the music from contagion begins | 17:02 |
| sneep | I kind of want to watch that movie now | 17:03 |
| sneep | A false negative is when you have it but the test returns negative | 17:04 |
| berndj | sneep, i think i'm explaining a bit badly. i don't want to know whether i am NOW infected per se, but in say a month's time when i might be supporting aged parents with grocery shopping etc i want to know how much of a risk i am to them then | 17:04 |
| berndj | sneep, so what i'm hoping to avoid is to get tested, and it says, "no infection", but actually i did (past tense) have it | 17:05 |
| sneep | Why do you think you'd be a risk to them after having recovered? | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +440 cases (now 150866) 🔶 US: +159 cases (now 2499), +1 deaths (now 51), +8 recoveries (now 49) 🔶 Germany: +228 cases (now 4181) 🔸 Afghanistan: +1 cases (now 11) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Algeria: +2 recoveries (now 12) 🔸 Australia: +24 cases (now 250), +1 recoveries (now 27) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +20 cases (now 112) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +11 cases (now 46) 🔸 South Australia, | 17:05 |
| berndj | and yeah, "false negative" is a poor choice of term | 17:06 |
| berndj | sneep, if what i have now is just some other random thing like a flu, then it's trivially true that i can still be infected with sars-cov-2 and bring it home to them | 17:06 |
| RougeR | https://i.imgur.com/jhG2DY1.jpg | 17:07 |
| LjL | berndj, you can test positive even if you're towards resolution of symptoms. no guarantee, but it's not unlikely. | 17:07 |
| berndj | if what i have now is covid-19, then in a month or two from now, that's a slightly lower risk. the stuff i bring would still need attention, but at least me standing near them wouldn't be as much of an issue | 17:07 |
| sneep | So you're hoping that you have a mild case of covid? | 17:08 |
| sneep | To gain immunity? | 17:08 |
| sneep | Yah, I kinda hope I have that too! | 17:08 |
| berndj | basically, yeah | 17:09 |
| berndj | it's milder than other times i've had flu | 17:09 |
| sneep | I think it's pretty unlikely | 17:10 |
| berndj | but very definitely *something* | 17:10 |
| sneep | Not the common cold? | 17:10 |
| berndj | no, i have a fever | 17:10 |
| berndj | and no congested nose | 17:10 |
| sneep | How long have you had that fever? | 17:10 |
| python476 | someone told me covid doesnt cause cytokine storm | 17:10 |
| python476 | how solid is this | 17:10 |
| berndj | sneep, sore throat on wednesday, felt subjectively "feverish" by thursday (but unable to measure), 37.5°C by friday noon, and 37.9°C by midnight | 17:11 |
| berndj | python476, i (vaguely) recall someone saying that *sometimes* it does | 17:12 |
| python476 | berndj: ok, more an exception than the norm then | 17:14 |
| sneep | google brought up: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237259-why-dont-children-seem-to-get-very-ill-from-the-coronavirus/ | 17:15 |
| berndj | python476, i have no idea how to infer any distribution. just a vague "sometimes, sometimes not" | 17:15 |
| sneep | berndj: The recovery numbers tend to lag behind the infection numbers by weeks, so I don't think you'll have it fought off by sometime next week | 17:17 |
| sneep | (People are usually declared recovered after they test negative a couple times in a row) | 17:17 |
| sneep | (This might be different from country to country) | 17:18 |
| eviscerate | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hXCIuxQyd8 | 17:20 |
| eviscerate | live now | 17:20 |
| eviscerate | Members of the Coronavirus Task Force Hold a Press Briefing | 17:20 |
| berndj | thanks sneep. i guess i can also ask these questions of the testing lab | 17:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:19 UTC: New York confirms state's first death from coronavirus: An 82-year old New York woman with pre-existing health issues died after contracting the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/dQrVzp | 17:22 |
| python476 | %cases italy | 17:22 |
| Brainstorm | python476: In all areas, Italy, there are 17660 cases, 1266 deaths (7.2% of cases), 1439 recoveries as of March 13, 22:21Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 17:22 |
| berndj | how long has it been now since italy went full-lockdown? | 17:23 |
| mefistofeles | couple of days, maximum | 17:23 |
| mefistofeles | and according to LjL it's not much of a full lockdown, fwiw | 17:24 |
| LjL | more than a couple of days, at least if you consider it from the beginning when they locked down Lombardy... | 17:24 |
| LjL | they basically made one new decree every night for a bit | 17:24 |
| LjL | we *should* be seeing results shortly, but the results may actually be... bad... since the first lockdown resulted in many people successfully rushing away from Milan to other regions | 17:25 |
| berndj | are the new cases going down yet? | 17:25 |
| BruntLIVE | CoronaVirus...The Game. On Xbox, PS5 and GameBoy....kill the virus | 17:25 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: same happened in Wuhan | 17:25 |
| LjL | berndj, no, but deaths/cases keeps getting worse, which on the flipside may mean... cases are about to trends towards a better curve? i'm slightly grasping at straws here | 17:25 |
| mefistofeles | berndj: in Italy? Nope | 17:26 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, yeah | 17:26 |
| berndj | LjL, i'm wondering about the grey bar vs orange bar phenomenon like in this graph https://miro.medium.com/max/3584/1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.png (used in https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca ) | 17:29 |
| sneep | eviscerate: trump's sounding tired | 17:30 |
| CatButtes[m] | LjL: recovery will always lag deaths. Death is a pretty quick destination to arrive at while recovery takes weeks | 17:33 |
| LjL | CatButtes[m], i'm not looking at recoveries at all, i'm looking at cases. recoveries are calculated *very* inconsistently | 17:33 |
| CatButtes[m] | Ah gotcha. I was thinking that cases will go down as recoveries are removed from the count - but that is likely not that case? | 17:35 |
| X-Scale | https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-spanish-government-imposes-lockdown-of-entire-country-amid-spread-of-virus/ar-BB11bAyk?li=BBoPRmx | 17:35 |
| mefistofeles | CatButtes[m]: cases are independent of recovery, if that's what youa re asking | 17:36 |
| CatButtes[m] | Got it | 17:36 |
| berndj | CatButtes[m], is it relatively rare for people to hover around and then die after 2 weeks? | 17:38 |
| LjL | CatButtes[m], there is a case count that excludes recoveries, and lately, TV and media *are* reporting that number, instead of the total number... i have a vague suspicion they've been told to do so to minimize how bad it sounds | 17:39 |
| LjL | CatButtes[m], but i'm usually looking at the total case count. that's what the bots here and the graphs report anyway | 17:39 |
| berndj | i've seen that labeled as "active cases" | 17:40 |
| LjL | yeah | 17:40 |
| LjL | deaths/total_cases is going to underestimate the death rate, *if* you know about all cases, although it will likely overestimate it if you are missing many cases. on the other hand, deaths/(deaths+recoveries) is definitely going to overestimate it, but at least it can be somewhat solidly seen as an upper limit | 17:41 |
| LjL | when the epidemic is "over" (whenever that is, if ever) those should become the same thing i guess | 17:41 |
| LjL | but now, we can say the number is somewhere in between 0% and a lot | 17:42 |
| berndj | sneep, trump an pence look *tired* | 17:42 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: it's not necessarily to make it soud less bad, it makes sense to take the recovery rate into account. Not sure if you remember when I did one of the first plots on the recovery rate vs new cases rate or death rate, and how the recovery was catching up to new cases, and you can see how when it spikes then you (a couple of days later) start watching the slowdown, or things like that | 17:43 |
| mefistofeles | of course, Italy is not Wuhan, but still it gives information | 17:43 |
| berndj | ooh, UK and ireland locked out after all | 17:45 |
| mefistofeles | Now, my boss wants me to go back to my home country, but I'd need to do that through Spain... but Spain is considering a full-lockdown... so I don't know how would that work. | 17:45 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | <Brainstorm "🔶 World: +440 cases (now 150866"> It seems, the list isn't complete...? | 17:45 |
| mefistofeles | BravoEchoNovembe: what do you mean? | 17:45 |
| LjL | BravoEchoNovembe, no, there's only so much you can fit in an IRC message | 17:46 |
| mefistofeles | oh that? For sure | 17:46 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 New York, US: +103 cases (now 524), +1 deaths (now 1) 🔸 Afghanistan: +1 cases (now 11) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Algeria: +2 recoveries (now 12) 🔸 Australia: +24 cases (now 250), +1 recoveries (now 27) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +20 cases (now 112) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +11 cases (now 46) 🔸 South Australia, Australia: +3 cases (now 19) 🔸 Victoria, Australia: +13 cases (now 49) 🔸 Western Aust | 17:46 |
| LjL | i tried sending Matrix messages before, but that didn't work out very well, it spammed the channel *a lot* | 17:46 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | <LjL "BravoEchoNovember 🇩🇪, no, ther"> Understood. Thanks. | 17:46 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | <LjL "i tried sending Matrix messages "> Maybe you could post a textfile with the complete content? | 17:47 |
| LjL | BravoEchoNovembe, i probably could, but isn't it much better to just look at one of the trackers listed in the topic paste? | 17:48 |
| LjL | the bot is more about realtime(ish) updates | 17:48 |
| LjL | anyway, the bot has a feature to post things to a pastebin, which i'm simply not using for these updates at present. i could just use that. | 17:49 |
| LjL | it should be easy as far as i'm concerned | 17:49 |
| mefistofeles | Germany had this crazy spike | 17:49 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | <LjL "the bot is more about realtime(i"> Ok | 17:49 |
| mefistofeles | oh wait, that was Spain, sorry | 17:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana at 16:43 UTC: MINISTERO DELLO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO - DECRETO 25 febbraio 2020: Liquidazione coatta amministrativa della «Survey - soc. cooperativa aresponsabilita' limitata», in Pogliano Milanese e nomina delcommissario liquidatore. (20A01551) → https://is.gd/6jbjIf | 17:50 |
| darsie | Busy moment in our kitchen: http://bksys.at/bernhard/temp/IMG_3192-pixeleze.JPG | 17:50 |
| mefistofeles | darsie: haha | 17:51 |
| mefistofeles | darsie: what are you preparing? | 17:51 |
| darsie | Not me. Some food, dunno what. | 17:51 |
| azy | THATS TOO MANY PEOPLE | 17:51 |
| azy | SPREAD OUT | 17:51 |
| mefistofeles | lol | 17:51 |
| RougeR | https://sites.google.com/view/covidopenletter/home?fbclid=IwAR1qwG1H3SMy4HQSdAT-HTEt7M88pHbJhVFMneaPVTXmIZYYwVSotwoPVkk | 17:52 |
| RougeR | We are writing as behavioural scientists to express concern about the timing of UK delay measures involving social distancing. As is clear from the disaster unfolding in Italy, | 17:53 |
| CatButtes[m] | The uk is where Italy was on the 29th going by the off loop graphs. And Italy had been shut down for a week at that point... | 17:53 |
| isbvm[m] | where are these graphs? | 17:55 |
| Spec | RougeR: pfft, that's a lot of "doctors" and "professors" on that list, not real heroes -- our politicians. | 17:55 |
| mefistofeles | checck the topic | 17:55 |
| CatButtes[m] | %cases United Kingdom | 17:55 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | Is there a way to get a notice by post of a specific account. Otherwise automatic forwarding? 😅 | 17:55 |
| mefistofeles | not sure if you get it in the matrix channel, now that I think about it | 17:55 |
| Brainstorm | CatButtes[m]: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 1140 cases, 21 deaths (1.8% of cases), 18 recoveries as of March 14, 16:50Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:55 |
| mefistofeles | ↑ | 17:55 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | But I'm just using mobile client. | 17:55 |
| CatButtes[m] | Add Italy and the uk to that graph and set it to log scale | 17:56 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | %cases germany | 17:56 |
| Brainstorm | BravoEchoNovembe: In all areas, Germany, there are 4181 cases, 8 deaths (0.2% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 14, 16:50Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 17:56 |
| mefistofeles | CatButtes[m]: in any case, UK is really showing a different behaviour than Italy's, fwiw | 17:56 |
| CatButtes[m] | Yeah. We aren’t acting | 17:56 |
| mefistofeles | CatButtes[m]: I mean, better behaviour, fwiw | 17:56 |
| orgg | cause there's a mar-o-lago there | 17:56 |
| mefistofeles | way better | 17:56 |
| CatButtes[m] | Set the graph to log scale and it is very similar just time shifted | 17:57 |
| CatButtes[m] | Ignoring the duplicate entry on the uk one | 17:57 |
| astraliam[m] | Does it seem likely the UK plan is to lock down later and first to spread the virus? Theyre just not telling people their gonna lock down but wait til there's more appetite for that? | 17:57 |
| astraliam[m] | If so, I don't know why they don't instead start offering healthy people extra sick pay from printed money to get the virus in a controlled way. | 17:57 |
| mefistofeles | CatButtes[m]: no, that's not how it works | 17:57 |
| orgg | yeah, there's a trump resort there - can't fuck up travel. | 17:58 |
| RougeR | CatButtes[m], hundreds of thousands will die | 17:58 |
| RougeR | due to dominic cummings and his team of experts | 17:58 |
| RougeR | this has his grubby prints written all over it | 17:58 |
| mefistofeles | RougeR: that's not likely | 17:59 |
| RougeR | mefistofeles, very likely | 18:00 |
| RougeR | superforcasting | 18:00 |
| orgg | there will likely be millions by my estimte - but this just keeps getting worse. | 18:00 |
| berndj | astraliam[m], yes, in theory that would be implicit in the plan. but for it to work it would need rather accurate, prompt information, otherwise the system slips out of control | 18:00 |
| KindOne | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA4KS546rZo&feature=youtu.be | 18:01 |
| mefistofeles | in many years? surely, when this comes back, etc. | 18:01 |
| mefistofeles | but not in a time window that actually makes this worse than it already is | 18:01 |
| orgg | look at testing % in the US | 18:01 |
| mefistofeles | orgg: what about it? | 18:01 |
| orgg | it's nearly... nonexistant in a statistical state. | 18:02 |
| RougeR | astraliam[m], because that would be ridiculed as reckless | 18:02 |
| mefistofeles | orgg: that's not necessarily worse, I mean, of course more testing better numbers | 18:02 |
| mefistofeles | but that would just be that, better numbers | 18:02 |
| mefistofeles | because we already know many cases are not being detected at all | 18:02 |
| orgg | rather rely on numbers than trumps opinion | 18:03 |
| mefistofeles | and not only in the US, but worlwide | 18:03 |
| mefistofeles | *worldwide | 18:03 |
| orgg | absolutely. | 18:03 |
| orgg | you're 100% correct on that. | 18:03 |
| mefistofeles | so yeah, actually more testing will bring down the death rate, so probably even less deads than current estimates | 18:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 16:59 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Exclusive: U.S. to add Britain, Ireland to European travel ban - airline, U.S. officials - Reuters → https://is.gd/2J63KS | 18:03 |
| orgg | the outcome of more testing is completely unknown - that's the concern I have. | 18:04 |
| orgg | cause there isn't much | 18:04 |
| mefistofeles | no, it's not unknown | 18:04 |
| orgg | I'm not leading to best or worse - just period... | 18:04 |
| orgg | it's unknown. | 18:04 |
| mefistofeles | no, you know that with more testing the CFR is lower, just as in Korea | 18:05 |
| CatButtes[m] | mefistofeles: what did you mean by the uk showing better behaviour? | 18:05 |
| mefistofeles | CatButtes[m]: the exponent is lower (maybe the same now, but because Italy has improved) | 18:05 |
| CatButtes[m] | I’m guessing you don’t mean hoarding bog roll? | 18:05 |
| orgg | I disagree, but I also think matrix is crap - so take my opinion for what you will. | 18:05 |
| CatButtes[m] | mefistofeles: you could be right. I’m on mobile right now, so I’m stuck eyeballing it - but from the 23rd feb onwards they look very close | 18:07 |
| corecode | meh, i just don't understand epidemiology right | 18:07 |
| CatButtes[m] | I will be pulling it into a python notebook later to play with though | 18:08 |
| mefistofeles | CatButtes[m]: yes, but you cannot compare like that, since Italy had much more infected when the exponent was lowered to the same value as UK's | 18:08 |
| berndj | carson looks and sounds like he's been up 40 hours | 18:08 |
| mefistofeles | UK has mantained it somewhat constant since the 23 or so | 18:08 |
| CatButtes[m] | mefistofeles: I will accept you probably have a point there. I’m still going to play around a little once the kids are in bed - if nothing else it exercises my rusty brain cells! | 18:10 |
| mefistofeles | berndj: who's that? | 18:10 |
| berndj | mefistofeles, ben carson. i'm watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hXCIuxQyd8 (carson's just finished though) | 18:10 |
| orgg | Google's gonna fix it - really. | 18:11 |
| Spec | don't worry, google's got this in the bag | 18:11 |
| LjL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFJ6BjUmItE Italy's press confedence today (and i'm late for it as usual) | 18:11 |
| orgg | cause none of the data will be sold I'm sure | 18:11 |
| LjL | so they probably already gave the numbers | 18:11 |
| LjL | they are saying the measures government introduced will have a delayed effect | 18:11 |
| orgg | if they had anything in the first fucking place. | 18:11 |
| LjL | so i assume the numbers are bad | 18:12 |
| LjL | question: did anything change in the percentage of under-40s, under-50s affected? | 18:12 |
| orgg | over 1000 engineers - but google disagrees | 18:12 |
| orgg | lol | 18:12 |
| LjL | about the deaths below between 38-50, we're still talking about adults, not kids, so that's good news | 18:12 |
| LjL | (is it?) | 18:12 |
| LjL | but also we're still talking about people with comorbidities | 18:13 |
| LjL | so we should still analyze exactly the types of pathology and the actual cause of death | 18:13 |
| Spec | orgg: each engineer wrote one line of code, and then passed it to the next engineer w/ a handshake, as is custom. | 18:13 |
| LjL | i don't see any evidence right now that a younger age group is seeing more deaths | 18:13 |
| LjL | but the deaths in general have increased, so they have done so proportionally in those age groups too | 18:13 |
| orgg | Spec: funny joke, but it's not that way in reality. | 18:13 |
| LjL | i don't have exact data at this time | 18:13 |
| LjL | but anyway we're still seeing deaths coming from cases that occurred a week or two ago | 18:14 |
| LjL | we need to see how the case distribution changes in a few days, after the social distancing measures have an effect | 18:14 |
| orgg | LjL: left #coronavirus personally - ironic, 'eh? | 18:15 |
| LjL | question: how many files are missing? today Molise's government is mandating self-isolation for anyone who comes back from the red zones. since we can't stop people fleeing those areas, is this something that can be extended? | 18:15 |
| LjL | err, not files, obviously that was masks | 18:15 |
| LjL | we need about 90 million masks | 18:15 |
| LjL | we have signed contracts for over 55 million of them | 18:15 |
| LjL | at this time we delivered more than 5 million | 18:15 |
| LjL | we also have 20 million masks that we had a contract for but which were not delivering | 18:16 |
| Spec | orgg: as a systems engineer, i understand it's not that way. | 18:16 |
| LjL | the whole world is closing borders to exports | 18:16 |
| LjL | india, romania, russia | 18:16 |
| LjL | those were markets in which our providers were making PPEs, FPP2 and FPP3 masks, but they've closed borders to exports | 18:16 |
| LjL | so the work we're doing, and that the regions are doing, is a difficult job | 18:16 |
| LjL | you work until late night and then the following day you don't receive a confirmation for orders that were placed | 18:17 |
| LjL | it's not just an italian problem, but an international one | 18:17 |
| Spec | i have questions about masks | 18:17 |
| Spec | how are they made, and what is the limiting resources? | 18:17 |
| LjL | about Molise's measures against people coming back from the hotspots, there are measures the government dictated that are still fully in force | 18:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 17:09 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: AGGIORNAMENTO 14/03/2020 ORE 17.00 neci POSITIVI AL nCoV “vn Totale DIMES! | DeceouT: CAS! | taPoNt attualmente | GUARITI TOTAL positivi Lombardia 4898 732, 3429 9059 11685 | 37138 Emilia Romagna 1076 152 1121 2349 2644 10043, Veneto 366 119 1290 1775 1937 | _26980 Marche 449 93 321 863 a99 | [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gWmfE1 | 18:17 |
| Spec | ie; can you setup a mask factory in america within 30 days? | 18:17 |
| LjL | the option for region governors to adopt further restrictive measures exists | 18:18 |
| Spec | what are the lead times for such manufacturing | 18:18 |
| LjL | i think what's important is to hold faith in the individuals' behaviors | 18:18 |
| LjL | this is what i wish, but the possibility of more restrictive measures remains | 18:18 |
| LjL | we moved 4 patients today from Lombardy to elsewhere | 18:18 |
| LjL | (seriously? 4?) | 18:18 |
| LjL | question: about the deaths, does the very high number of today partly depend on very old people having been denied ICU? and also, i am still not clear on the distinction between deaths "from" and deaths "with" coronavirus: apart from terminal cases, how can you tell the cause of death is *not* coronavirus? do you have data on ICU, their growth, etc? | 18:19 |
| corecode | i don't think you can tell | 18:20 |
| corecode | also, what does it matter? | 18:20 |
| LjL | answer: about the high lethality in the elderly, i don't think it's a matter of lack of healthcare, or maybe only marginally; the main issue is there is an amount of people who simply aren't considered "cases" because they have mild symptoms, don't get access to testing, and aren't counted | 18:20 |
| LjL | this also means people who aren't feeling well really should stay at home, not even leave for grocery shopping, and call their doctors | 18:20 |
| mefistofeles | orgg: ↑↑ exactly what I was commenting earlier | 18:20 |
| LjL | about the other question, "with" or "from"? yes, it's very difficult to tell what the real cause is | 18:20 |
| LjL | we can't deny a coronavirus infection exists | 18:21 |
| LjL | but it's also clear the existing conditions of many people are hard to manage | 18:21 |
| RougeR | https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/filssf/reverseengineering_the_reasoning_behind_the/ | 18:21 |
| LjL | they are people who aren't well-compensated, they have clinical situations that a pneumonia like this can easily make critical, and fatal | 18:21 |
| corecode | you die because you had a car accident and you don't get an ICU, you're still dead | 18:21 |
| LjL | i would not say that the situation is particularly different from that in other countries | 18:21 |
| LjL | at least not in terms of severity of the disease | 18:21 |
| LjL | our only true reference is China, but they acted in a very different way from us | 18:21 |
| corecode | LjL: are you initaly? | 18:22 |
| LjL | we have yet to see what happens in other countries | 18:22 |
| LjL | corecode, yes | 18:22 |
| corecode | do you know how many people are being tested? | 18:22 |
| LjL | we don't know exactly how other countries act. these are our data, we don't think it's a matter of healthcare, but of virus circulation, which is probably higher than we can verify | 18:22 |
| Spec | LjL: can you get drive-through-tested yet? | 18:22 |
| corecode | or what the procedure of testing is? | 18:22 |
| LjL | corecode, i can tell you what the civil protection is telling me | 18:22 |
| LjL | Spec, no | 18:22 |
| mefistofeles | he's translating a press conference live right now | 18:22 |
| mefistofeles | btw | 18:22 |
| corecode | oh sorry | 18:23 |
| corecode | go on then | 18:23 |
| LjL | we must stress to people that even mild symptoms can be indicative of a COVID infection. they must not leave, they must not have contacts, they must follow the rules | 18:23 |
| Spec | LjL: :( | 18:23 |
| LjL | about the number of ICU beds in Lombardy, i don't have the data here, so let me get the data to you later | 18:23 |
| mefistofeles | what really? that's basic data | 18:23 |
| LjL | question: again about masks, the difficulties you're finding in securing them from international markets, are you considering converting industries to mask production? | 18:23 |
| LjL | answer: our commissioner is there for that, finding structures that can be converted, and create a national production. unfortunately we do NOT have any national production of PPEs now, perhaps because they have been considered low-margin for the economy so far, and now we pay the toll | 18:24 |
| LjL | --- end | 18:24 |
| mefistofeles | thanks LjL | 18:25 |
| LjL | usually this is a bit of a "no news" thing | 18:25 |
| corecode | i didn't mean to interrupt | 18:25 |
| LjL | this time it's more like "bad news" i feel | 18:25 |
| LjL | corecode, it's okay | 18:25 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: yeah, the feeling is not good | 18:25 |
| LjL | it feels odd to translate almost every sentence with an "about <xyz>," that's not how you phrase things in english usually. but apparently most of the time it is in these press conferences | 18:26 |
| corecode | what's that in italian? | 18:26 |
| LjL | orgg, i have nothing in particular against the channel, or its ops, at all. sometimes this channel gets a bit weird too | 18:27 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +3508 cases (now 154460), +179 deaths (now 5803), +530 recoveries (now 74393) 🔶 Veneto, Italy: +342 cases (now 1937), +13 deaths (now 55), +7 recoveries (now 107) 🔶 Toscana, Italy: +160 cases (now 630), +1 deaths (now 6) 🔶 Marche, Italy: +174 cases (now 899), +9 deaths (now 36) 🔶 Lombardia, Italy: +1865 cases (now 11685), +76 deaths (now 966), +462 recoveries (now 1660) 🔶 Liguria, Italy: +118 | 18:27 |
| corecode | i think rates would be better than absolute numbers | 18:28 |
| mefistofeles | %data Italy | 18:29 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In all areas, Italy, there are 21157 cases, 1441 deaths (6.8% of cases), 1966 recoveries as of March 14, 17:13Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 18:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 17:26 UTC: Coronavirus: UK deaths double in 24 hours: Ten more people have died after testing positive for the virus, NHS England says. → https://is.gd/GZscop | 18:31 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 18:31 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 21157 cases, 1441 deaths (6.8% of cases), 1966 recoveries as of March 14, 17:13Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 18:31 |
| LjL | whoops | 18:32 |
| LjL | was scrolled up | 18:32 |
| LjL | i guess... mortality actually went *down* a bit? unless the bot's numbers aren't the actual numbers the civil protection gave (which i didn't hear) | 18:32 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: you cannot tell because of that non-authoritative thing, tbh | 18:33 |
| mefistofeles | :P | 18:33 |
| LjL | it's still just getting them from JHU | 18:33 |
| LjL | it's as authoritative as the rest of JHU's data really | 18:33 |
| mefistofeles | oh really? | 18:33 |
| mefistofeles | ok | 18:34 |
| LjL | anyway, listening now to the first part of the press conference | 18:34 |
| LjL | i want to hear the specific numbers | 18:34 |
| LjL | i'll translate part of it again | 18:34 |
| mefistofeles | yep | 18:34 |
| LjL | recoveries today: +527, total 1966 | 18:34 |
| LjL | cases: +2795, 17750, of which, 7680 are in self-isolation at home, 1518 in ICU | 18:34 |
| LjL | so it's still 10% in ICU | 18:34 |
| LjL | deaths: +175 | 18:34 |
| LjL | we'll give you the detailed distribution report as usual | 18:35 |
| Biep[m] | <RougeR "have the UK scientists released "> I think the model is well-established. I learned about it (as a theoretical case) decades ago, in a chaos theory context: going to too small values would trigger a swing to huge values. | 18:35 |
| LjL | today i'd rather not give you the usual data about the forces being deployed | 18:35 |
| LjL | there are a few controversies, four of them, in less than 24 hours | 18:35 |
| LjL | let me state that the civil protection has worked 24/7 since the very beginning | 18:35 |
| LjL | and we've been looking for masks, ventilators, all materials for curing our sick | 18:35 |
| LjL | we are facing a very serious pandemic | 18:35 |
| LjL | the measures that have been asked of our citizens are important | 18:36 |
| LjL | so i'm sorry there are these controversies, which have no foundation | 18:36 |
| LjL | so i wish other institutions and emergency operators can work cohesively, without controversies | 18:36 |
| LjL | let me say that from deep inside my heart, coming from someone who's worked for 20 years to improve our country's response capacity | 18:36 |
| LjL | this is an emergency that was never seen before, and must be faced with the utmost cohesion | 18:36 |
| LjL | now i'll answer questions | 18:36 |
| LjL | we must turn on the microphone (lol) | 18:37 |
| LjL | question: first question, today a 118 operator from Bergamo became positive, without comorbidities...? apart from this case, from analysing the clinical files by ISS, was there a third case of a death in someone without comorbidities? | 18:37 |
| Spec | LjL: i assume PPE will never be considered low-margin ever again? at least not in our lives? hopefully. | 18:38 |
| LjL | answer: at this stage we're getting information about comorbidities, and so far we have only one case, but we still have to obtain information from the regions about a second case | 18:38 |
| python476 | do cat transmit viruses ? | 18:38 |
| python476 | cats* | 18:38 |
| LjL | health workers: a high number of health workers have been infected, and as i was saying, we must get deeper into these cases and see if the infection happened in the professional environment or not | 18:38 |
| python476 | cause I'm hungry and my neighbors cat looks yumme | 18:38 |
| LjL | question: (inaudible) | 18:38 |
| LjL | answer: i have no specific data about this person | 18:39 |
| LjL | if we calculated percentages correctly, the increase, though dramatic, in the number of deaths, today it has been the lowest since the start | 18:39 |
| LjL | in Lombardy it's 8.5% | 18:40 |
| LjL | it's not great to make numbers out of these tragedies, but in the past few days too, we could witness a small change in the curve, so there is some cautious optimism | 18:40 |
| LjL | also remember this is not about people who got sick today, but a week or two ago, so now we're seeing an outcome | 18:40 |
| LjL | it could be good news, it could mean we are offering adequate assistance to the sick, and also reduce the exposure of the most at-risk categories | 18:41 |
| RougeR | http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on_coronavirus_measures.pdf | 18:41 |
| LjL | you can see many people around with masks lately, so the message may have gotten through | 18:41 |
| Spec | LjL: but cdc said masks were unnecessary | 18:41 |
| LjL | question: seeing the Bergamo province data, and looking at the mortality rate in general, can we get back to the "third hotspot" theory? can this be it? | 18:41 |
| LjL | answer: it's hard to consider a hotspot like an origin now. it's now just a place with higher concentration. why it happened there may depend on the fact that real cases were just there a few days ago, or maybe we have problems with excess transmission despite the important measures the government has put in place, which do not have an immediate effect | 18:42 |
| Biep[m] | <LjL "i tried sending Matrix messages "> If the message were a clickable link to the full text, that would be great. The full text could be posted in a separate, dedicated room, and the message address used here. | 18:43 |
| LjL | question: did anything change compared to previous days, in the number of infection in under-40s or under-50s? any significant data that shows a variation? what is the percentage today? what is the death rate below 50? | 18:43 |
| LjL | --- i transcribed before from here on | 18:43 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: that part we had it | 18:43 |
| mefistofeles | yes | 18:43 |
| LjL | Biep[m], i have a bit of a technical problem with doing the thing i do with the pastebin in other cases with the bot. it usually works like this: the first message comes with a "type %more to see more" message, then if you do it, it fills another message, and adds a pastebin link to it (whether it's clickable or not depends on your client, but i'm pretty sure the Matrix bridge will make it clickable) | 18:44 |
| LjL | but again i'm not sure i can do this because it generally involves something i don't have, i.e. an "input" data structure representing a channel and related stuff | 18:45 |
| LjL | Spec, the WHO said they were unneccessary to, so our government said the same | 18:45 |
| LjL | Spec, maybe these days the civil protection is too frustrated to keep hiding facts | 18:45 |
| Spec | I'm firmly in the N95-for-healthcare-workers, surgical-masks-for-everyone camp | 18:46 |
| Spec | not to protect the individuals, but to halt the spread | 18:46 |
| Biep[m] | All right - I am talking about what I don't know, but *if* you have the whole message, posting it in a dedicated room shouldn't be hard. And that posted message does have an address (can be found by clicking on the time to the left; just assuming there is an API for it too). Then here you could post `"["+head(message)+"]("+address(message)+")"`. | 18:48 |
| LjL | python476, i don't think there is any evidence cats can get, nevermind pass on, the virus. one dog has been found "weakly positive" twice (initially and after a quarantine), but there's no data on the viability of the virus from the dog. but... i think potentially, cats and dogs being allowed outside can bring the virus inside just from the fact it may be on sidewalks and streets, and they walk on them barefooted and sniff around and stuff | 18:48 |
| LjL | but that's just my hunch | 18:48 |
| Bluebird2020 | What is really Covid\9 nd why is spreading o fast | 18:48 |
| python476 | LjL beside the joke I was genuinely curious | 18:49 |
| Biep[m] | * LjL: All right - I am talking about what I don't know, but _if_ you have the whole message, posting it in a dedicated room shouldn't be hard. And that posted message does have an address (can be found by clicking on the time to the left; just assuming there is an API for it too). Then here you could post `"["+head(message)+"]("+address(message)+")"`. | 18:49 |
| azy | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnHo3NjLLD0 | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +118 cases (now 154578), +1 recoveries (now 74394) 🔸 Afghanistan: +1 cases (now 11) 🔸 Albania: +5 cases (now 38) 🔸 Algeria: +2 recoveries (now 12) 🔸 Australia: +24 cases (now 250), +1 recoveries (now 27) 🔸 New South Wales, Australia: +20 cases (now 112) 🔸 Queensland, Australia: +11 cases (now 46) 🔸 South Australia, Australia: +3 cases (now 19) 🔸 Victoria, Australia: +13 cases (now 49) 🔸 Western | 18:52 |
| LjL | Bluebird2020, a coronavirus, and because it's quite contagious | 18:53 |
| LjL | Biep[m], i can post either on Matrix or on IRC, posting on both would make everything very confusing. but if you want i can make a dedicated Matrix room where it posts them as Matrix messsages only, which i believe would make them as long as needed | 18:54 |
| LjL | Spec, is it wishful thinking or does Lombardy, despite still being the worst in Italy, look a tiny bit encouraging? https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardia the case growth looks exponential but not incredibly so, and the deaths, though bad, almost looks linear now | 18:55 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: compared to what? | 18:56 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, whole of italy i guess | 18:56 |
| LjL | also, our ability to potentially stay alive, you know | 18:57 |
| sneep | Bluebird2020: That sounds like you're going to try to sell us on a conspiracy theory | 18:57 |
| LjL | that sort of thing | 18:57 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: hmm I don't think it's a good comparison if you are doing it just like directly from the graph | 18:57 |
| mefistofeles | in that case the log scale helps, for example | 18:58 |
| mefistofeles | you can see the slope is basically the same | 18:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 17:52 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Daniel Dale su Twitter: "California officials “were stunned” to see Trump team “present a graphic for a modest pilot program that California's been developing with Alphabet as if it were a Trump administration program that was a nationwide initiative and ready to go...” @b_fung: https://t.co/OZ0yazA6Sq" → https://is.gd/vmum87 | 18:59 |
| LjL | i guess so | 18:59 |
| Bluebird2020 | sneep: No. I'm just wondering why this dam virus is so contagious and why it had spreading so fast. | 18:59 |
| LjL | Bluebird2020, the question is "why not"? viruses can definitely do that, and some people have warned about the very concrete possibility of a virus like this (or even worse) appearing for years | 19:00 |
| LjL | then we had things like the avian flu that seemed potentially terrible (and is, if you actually catch it), but it didn't have sustained human-to-human transmission, so countries just spent a lot of money on vaccines they didn't use | 19:00 |
| LjL | i think that didn't help with getting public spending on these issues | 19:01 |
| Spec | LjL: security costs money, true | 19:01 |
| Bluebird2020 | the vaccine business is maybe one the reasons why governments had take so long to take measures but who knows. | 19:03 |
| eviscerate | I vote we rename covid19 to Wuhan Boogaloo | 19:05 |
| Biep[m] | <LjL "Biep, i can post either on Matri"> Yes, please. A ticker tape room. | 19:06 |
| LjL | Biep[m], okay, i can do that, then i can figure out the pastebin thing later | 19:07 |
| Biep[m] | Thanks! | 19:07 |
| tinwhiskers | Spec: the last chart is the doubling time for infections, the idea for which I stole from fructose. Normally you just have a single for doubling time, but this shows the last n days at any point in time. If you just want the current doubling time just look at the latest value, but it's interesting to see how the doubling time changes over time as that show changes in the rate of increase that are not obvious from the naked infection | 19:07 |
| tinwhiskers | chart. | 19:07 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: hmm | 19:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Spec: but also note you can now plot using a log scale which also gives a good idea of what the increase is doing. | 19:08 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: the doubling rate for US is 2.4 days? | 19:08 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: yeah i saw that, nice job on log scale :) | 19:08 |
| Bluebird2020 | Guys I have to go. Stay safe. Thanks.Bye | 19:10 |
| dunnp | tinwhiskers: where is this plot? | 19:10 |
| tinwhiskers | dunnp: just below the others | 19:11 |
| dunnp | I was also just pointed to this that has more US/Canada detail than other sites: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en | 19:11 |
| Biep[m] | dunnp: https://offloop.net/covid19/ | 19:11 |
| dunnp | thanks | 19:12 |
| LjL | Biep[m], the room is #covid-updates:matrix.org and the bot should join it as soon as there is an update to show, if all goes well | 19:13 |
| Biep[m] | Thank you! | 19:13 |
| RougeR | Catalan regional leader Quid Torra has said he wants to seal off the whole region, and has asked the authorities in Madrid to block access by air, rail and sea. | 19:14 |
| Biep[m] | Maybe require mod level to post? To avoid it becoming a bad copy of this room? | 19:14 |
| LjL | Biep[m], yes, doing that | 19:14 |
| Biep[m] | * LjL: Maybe require mod level to post? To avoid it becoming a bad copy of this room? | 19:14 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Most doctors and profs saying likely 60% of population will be getting infected, same gov of Germany and the Netherlands announced. But in China everything is "under control". Isn't that strange? I really wonder what's going on in China now not so many news anymore. | 19:15 |
| RougeR | JsonJuri[m], | 19:16 |
| RougeR | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51888936 | 19:16 |
| Biep[m] | For now, cut-off messages could end with "For more info, see #...". | 19:16 |
| RougeR | look at end of this news article | 19:16 |
| RougeR | "The overwhelming majority of China's cases were in one place, Hubei province, and those were largely concentrated in one city, Wuhan. | 19:16 |
| RougeR | The outbreak was dealt with by an authoritarian government that imposed the biggest quarantine in human history. | 19:16 |
| RougeR | While there are hotspots in Europe, this is an outbreak across a continent, and different countries are adopting very different strategies for dealing with coronavirus." | 19:16 |
| tinwhiskers | JsonJuri[m]: once China emerges from their extreme lockdown the spread will probably continue again. They may have gone too far and are just doing economic harm to themselves. | 19:17 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, tbf they were also trying to stop world wide spread then | 19:17 |
| RougeR | now its a pandemic | 19:17 |
| RougeR | so diff approaches | 19:17 |
| tinwhiskers | Well, they made claim to doing it for the world but you should take that with a grain of salt | 19:18 |
| tinwhiskers | It had already reached a number of other countries by the time the lockdown in wuhan happened | 19:19 |
| RougeR | In a lunchtime briefing at the White House, the president also confirmed he had taken a test for the virus himself, although the result was not yet available. | 19:19 |
| RougeR | “I decided I should,” he said. | 19:19 |
| Spec | haha | 19:21 |
| mefistofeles | lol | 19:21 |
| RougeR | norway shutting airports | 19:21 |
| RougeR | this is the part in the pandemic game when suddenly it all takes off. sorry not to be sound to be belittling | 19:22 |
| RougeR | but it all seems to have hit at once today | 19:22 |
| JsonJuri[m] | I've read it but it doesn't make sense had the Chinese New year with hundereds of millions Chinese traveling through China but there everting is under control but those Chinese who traveled all over the world infected many people. | 19:22 |
| corecode | the media storm did | 19:22 |
| Timvde | RougeR: But it's okay, as soon as we have the medicine, we won, regardless of the state of the board, right? | 19:24 |
| Timvde | Right? :( | 19:24 |
| RougeR | JsonJuri[m], that makes sense i think | 19:25 |
| RougeR | Timvde, we hope | 19:25 |
| JsonJuri[m] | https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw | 19:33 |
| astraliam[m] | JsonJuri: do we fully understand the lock down measurers the chinese used? the gov in Uk concludes they would never be accepted here, probably rightly. | 19:38 |
| tilikum | what are they planning for disabled people in hard hit areas of the us | 19:39 |
| tilikum | my brother lives alone in los angeles and his aides are already calling off shifts | 19:39 |
| tilikum | if nobody is able to feed or toilet or clean or water him, he'll die | 19:40 |
| python476 | tilikum: I assume you're far from there | 19:40 |
| tilikum | very far | 19:41 |
| tilikum | im northeast ohio | 19:41 |
| tilikum | and i cant lift him on my own | 19:41 |
| python476 | in France hospitals are thinking about reaching for recently retired professionals to add capacity | 19:41 |
| JsonJuri[m] | @astraliam:1312.media: true but it's more like I not really trust that it's really under control in China makes no sense when compare how it's going in the rest of the world | 19:41 |
| python476 | to provide replacement you know | 19:41 |
| python476 | are there similar ideas floating in the US ? | 19:41 |
| Spec | python476: i think our best idea is walmart parking lots are available for fema camps | 19:42 |
| python476 | fema meaning ? | 19:42 |
| Spec | and CVS receipts will provide toilet paper | 19:42 |
| Spec | python476: Federal Emergency Management Agency i believe | 19:42 |
| python476 | emergency care barracks ? | 19:42 |
| python476 | ok | 19:42 |
| Spec | https://www.fema.gov/ | 19:42 |
| tilikum | i might fly to la today | 19:43 |
| tinwhiskers | JsonJuri[m]: it makes sense when you consider how extreme the lockdown is compared to other places. Still, them not telling the truth is also plausible. | 19:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus* at 18:46 UTC: Coronavirus: Join our official User-Moderated Discord Server! :) → https://is.gd/olxEde | 19:54 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +588 cases (now 156107), +3 deaths (now 5819), +2 recoveries (now 74396) 🔶 Spain: +270 cases (now 6313), +2 deaths (now 193) 🔶 Germany: +258 cases (now 4525) 🔸 Ecuador: +5 cases (now 28) 🔸 Iraq: +9 cases (now 110), +2 recoveries (now 26) 🔸 Ireland: +39 cases (now 129), +1 deaths (now 2) 🔸 Norway: +1 cases (now 1056) 🔸 Reunion: +1 cases (now 6) 🔸 Romania: +4 cases (now 113) 🔸 US: +1 cases (no | 19:56 |
| eviscerate | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4hGSR5njZE | 19:56 |
| tinwhiskers | %title | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: From www.youtube.com: The Gourds - Gin and Juice - YouTube | 19:57 |
| corecode | i'm trying to model the epidemic, trying to match numbers | 20:03 |
| corecode | but hard numbers are quite difficult to find, i guess | 20:04 |
| python476 | france is going 80% lockdown | 20:04 |
| LjL | python476, so everything but the baguettes? | 20:06 |
| Spec | baguettes are a critical component of recovery | 20:08 |
| Spec | that and brie | 20:08 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: how are you tryng? or what about it are you trying to model? | 20:08 |
| mefistofeles | *trying | 20:09 |
| LjL | Spec, i'd definitely argue more towards brie | 20:09 |
| corecode | development of epidemic growth, severe cases, recovery, death | 20:09 |
| corecode | but i'm not an epidemiologist | 20:10 |
| corecode | so it's a complete shitshow :) | 20:10 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: I see, but the thing is getting a good source with labeled/classified data | 20:14 |
| berndj | how does this virus fare in water? | 20:14 |
| mefistofeles | that's the main issue, I'd presume | 20:14 |
| Spec | berndj: in soapy water -- not well, not well at all. ;) | 20:14 |
| berndj | if i spat in my city's dam, would somebody catch the disease? | 20:14 |
| corecode | yes it is | 20:14 |
| python476 | LjL and wine | 20:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 19:10 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Norway closes airports and seaports → https://is.gd/Nk0gzG | 20:14 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: if you find one out please let us know | 20:14 |
| python476 | "wash your hands with wine, Champagne if you're in a hurry" | 20:14 |
| corecode | i guess the best data is the progression of dead and severe, because they are registered | 20:15 |
| berndj | corecode, all the numbers are a bit of a shitshow, because they get recorded with different lags in different countries, and depending on outcome | 20:15 |
| corecode | yes | 20:16 |
| twomoon | Indonesian transportation minister tests positive...crap it's spreading | 20:16 |
| berndj | so each country has its own statistical "personality" | 20:16 |
| corecode | twomoon: are you surprised? | 20:16 |
| twomoon | nope | 20:16 |
| berndj | i find it interesting how many political leader types are getting infected | 20:16 |
| twomoon | i think when commoners see elites getting infected it's more panic inducing | 20:17 |
| corecode | berndj: yea, is it because they interact a lot with many different people, or is it because it's already spread way far, and so few people have been tested? | 20:17 |
| corecode | it would be great to have a random sample of 1000 people in some low infected country, and see what's up | 20:18 |
| berndj | corecode, i think a bit of both. because they're political leaders, they get tested regardless, unlike their broader populations | 20:18 |
| berndj | and they're always shaking hands and kissing babies | 20:19 |
| twomoon | man, random sampling is a great idea | 20:19 |
| twomoon | the ppl that get tested first generally are the wealthier ppl i assume in most countries | 20:19 |
| twomoon | but it would be crazy if the act of going to test ppl spreads the disease | 20:20 |
| twomoon | and with a highly infective virus that's a possibility | 20:20 |
| corecode | whatever numbers i put in, the dead are lagging so much that italy would have already 300k recovered and 200k mildly infected | 20:21 |
| berndj | there's also an optimization problem, i think. WHEN do you do the random sampling? it doesn't seem very useful to do when you're likely to get 100 negative results from a sample of 100 | 20:23 |
| corecode | the peak without interventions would be in 5 weeks, with 200k severe | 20:23 |
| corecode | clearly that won't happen | 20:23 |
| Spec | berndj: that's because political leaders have access to the tests | 20:24 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: 200K worldwide? | 20:24 |
| corecode | in italy | 20:24 |
| corecode | my model must be wrong | 20:24 |
| tinwhiskers | Ah | 20:24 |
| astraliam[m] | JsonJuri: thats possible. but also maybe a lock down in china is much more effective. if literally everyone took this seriously, took the right precautions, and we have the right organisation for eg distributing food then it would be over in a month. My experience of the chinese is they are way better at organising in situations like this. | 20:25 |
| berndj | Spec, maybe in a sense political leaders are a sort of natural experiment. but a biased one, because they probably have more contact than the general population | 20:25 |
| Spec | berndj: people who work retail have MAXIMUM CONTACT, but ok | 20:25 |
| berndj | Spec, i didn't say politicians have maximum contact. just that they biased towards more contact than the population average | 20:26 |
| astraliam[m] | maybe come cool for leader to say theyve got it (when they dont) just to reassure people that the virus isnt that bad | 20:26 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: 60 million people, %60 of which get infected, and 20% of those get severe symptoms = 7 million | 20:27 |
| berndj | astraliam[m], will adversarially positioned leaders try to take advantage of that though? | 20:27 |
| python476 | my nose isn't runny anymore | 20:27 |
| python476 | i haz immuniteh | 20:27 |
| python476 | against vintage cold | 20:27 |
| python476 | :doh | 20:27 |
| astraliam[m] | berndj: in what way? | 20:28 |
| berndj | astraliam[m], like let's say trump says he's infected; will Xi try to use that to extract more trade concessions? | 20:28 |
| Spec | python476: fight them rhinos | 20:28 |
| berndj | in an adversarial environment, you don't grant your adversary ANY information they don't absolutely need | 20:28 |
| python476 | runny rhinos ruining my runs | 20:28 |
| berndj | granted, it would be fake, but the adversary wouldn't know that, and might try extracting concessions anyway | 20:28 |
| python476 | i wonder if people will go hike more since social gatherings are forbidden | 20:29 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: I cannot esaily get data on severe/critical cases, fwiw | 20:29 |
| berndj | python476, and ironically result in a net positive public health effect? | 20:29 |
| mefistofeles | easily* | 20:29 |
| corecode | mefistofeles: i'm just lumping them | 20:30 |
| twomoon | have italian cases finally started leveling off? | 20:30 |
| mefistofeles | I think Italy has it, but it's hard translating it efficiently fwiw | 20:30 |
| corecode | why would they be leveling off? | 20:30 |
| mefistofeles | twomoon: there's a glimpse of hope there, but too soon to tell | 20:30 |
| python476 | 2020 be like https://youtu.be/4p0DsVPkyZg?t=110 | 20:30 |
| python476 | berndj: obv | 20:31 |
| mefistofeles | %title | 20:31 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: From youtu.be: Amazing Japanese Precision (posted by Sanitaryum | Clean Humor) - YouTube | 20:31 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: I couldn't find it for Germany, though | 20:31 |
| mefistofeles | they have age groups and sex at best | 20:32 |
| mefistofeles | s/sex/gender | 20:32 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles meant to say: they have age groups and gender at best | 20:32 |
| astraliam[m] | berndj: its already an info war. Chinese foreign minister already tweet US military may have brought it to china. no impact. main stream media contol what people talk about. | 20:32 |
| astraliam[m] | Apart from that, Trump thinks he super man, he'll just pretend to be a bit sick and then declare himself virus free. dont see china getting any concession out of US any time soon. | 20:32 |
| corecode | my model only has susceptible -> mild infected (spreading) -> recovered / mild -> severe -> dead / severe -> recovered | 20:33 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: how are you modelling? | 20:33 |
| astraliam[m] | !cases italy | 20:33 |
| astraliam[m] | I think Italy still accelerating no? | 20:33 |
| mefistofeles | astraliam[m]: sure, but death rate lowered a bit | 20:33 |
| tinwhiskers | astraliam[m]: yes | 20:33 |
| twomoon | have there been any cases in southern italy south of the midpoint line? | 20:33 |
| LjL | "midpoint line"? | 20:34 |
| mefistofeles | twomoon: check the figures, there's the info by region | 20:34 |
| LjL | there are cases in every region afaik | 20:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 19:31 UTC: CoronavirusGLOBAL: Check out the Shanghai coronavirus taxi shield → https://is.gd/EbBXo7 | 20:34 |
| corecode | mefistofeles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease#The_SIR_model | 20:34 |
| tinwhiskers | %cases italy | 20:34 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas, Italy, there are 21157 cases, 1441 deaths (6.8% of cases), 1966 recoveries as of March 14, 17:13Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 20:34 |
| astraliam[m] | mefistofeles: but new cases may take time to die. | 20:34 |
| berndj | astraliam[m], yes, i'm just asserting that for trump to say now that he's infected (before a full recovery) would just weaken him | 20:35 |
| twomoon | ljl Rome is like the midpoint of the Mediterranean | 20:35 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: I see, nice, if you have something that you can share that would be nice to see | 20:35 |
| berndj | nothing to do with pretending to be superman out of vanity | 20:35 |
| LjL | twomoon, not really, but if Rome is the midpoint, are you asking if cases are only in the northern part of Rome? :P | 20:35 |
| mefistofeles | astraliam[m]: sure, it's just saying that old cases are dying less than yesterday, basically | 20:35 |
| twomoon | lol stupid question by me | 20:36 |
| twomoon | i just meant all of Rome and what's south of it | 20:36 |
| LjL | twomoon, it's not completely up to date because they take a day or two to gather the details, but https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19-infografica_eng.pdf has cases per region among other things | 20:36 |
| LjL | as you see no region is covid-free | 20:37 |
| LjL | but there's definitely wide differences in numbers | 20:37 |
| twomoon | the website got hit hard | 20:40 |
| mefistofeles | ? | 20:41 |
| corecode | mefistofeles: https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/gist/corecode/6ba5876eb7769a8c53a39cc8c42ae410 | 20:41 |
| commandocrypto[m | > commandocrypto: thanks, so an electric device heating a tiny air pipe to 200+ degC would sanitize | 20:42 |
| commandocrypto[m | Its complicated to scale to cruise ship sizes, but ding ding ding | 20:42 |
| astraliam[m] | any got data on safe distances outdoors. 1.5m seems reasonable but i heard chinese decided on 4m. were they going OTT? | 20:42 |
| corecode | https://gist.github.com/corecode/6ba5876eb7769a8c53a39cc8c42ae410 ah this works too | 20:42 |
| corecode | or not | 20:42 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: what's language is that again? | 20:42 |
| mefistofeles | *what | 20:42 |
| corecode | julia | 20:42 |
| mefistofeles | ah ok | 20:42 |
| corecode | trying to train new languages | 20:42 |
| mefistofeles | but yeah, all these equations seem pretty linear... | 20:43 |
| mefistofeles | not really sure they could model it accurately | 20:43 |
| corecode | why? | 20:43 |
| corecode | i mean sure they're wrong :) | 20:44 |
| corecode | just how wrong | 20:44 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: well, you can measure that, with some MSE or something | 20:45 |
| mefistofeles | :P | 20:45 |
| corecode | how? | 20:45 |
| corecode | mild cases is totally unknown | 20:46 |
| corecode | except korea i guess | 20:46 |
| corecode | or maybe china? | 20:46 |
| mefistofeles | I would use Korea data, but yeah, still you will get underrepresentation of cases | 20:48 |
| tinwhiskers | the UK epidemiologists estimated unreported (mild, untested) cases to be about 20 times the confirmed cases. | 20:50 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: is N the total population? | 20:50 |
| corecode | yes | 20:51 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: link? or do you know how they estimated that? | 20:52 |
| corecode | tinwhiskers: i can't fudge the numbers | 20:52 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: just for sanity checking purposes | 20:53 |
| corecode | i get more 50x or 200x | 20:53 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: where did you get the 0.3 from? | 20:53 |
| mefistofeles | for the beta | 20:53 |
| corecode | doubling rate has been around 2-3 days | 20:53 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm. well, I don't know anything about what they did so can't really say | 20:53 |
| corecode | both in italy and south korea | 20:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:50 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: France closes most stores, Spain to impose lockdown, US restricts UK travel → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 20:54 |
| tinwhiskers | I show the doubling rate at 4.1 days now | 20:54 |
| tinwhiskers | it's been falling, as it has for most countries | 20:54 |
| tinwhiskers | https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy | 20:55 |
| corecode | yes, due to containment | 20:55 |
| tinwhiskers | sorry, I mean rising :-/ | 20:55 |
| corecode | but we only had containment for a few days | 20:55 |
| corecode | but please, modify the model | 20:56 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: sorry, I still don't get how you estimated 0.3 from the doubling times, can you explain? | 20:56 |
| corecode | one way is to calculate the increase in numbers from day to day | 20:56 |
| corecode | if you see 25% increase a day, i think, set it to 0.25 | 20:57 |
| corecode | if you have doubling every 4 days, that's 2^(1/4) | 20:57 |
| corecode | that would be 0.18 or so | 20:57 |
| corecode | good chance i'm way off | 20:58 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: wait, but that 25% increase is compared to the previous number of cases, right? | 20:58 |
| corecode | yes | 20:58 |
| corecode | i guess my numbers are say off? | 20:59 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: I think it's expected to follow a somewhat exponential growth, not just linear | 20:59 |
| corecode | yea, it is exponential | 21:00 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: oh for sure | 21:00 |
| corecode | ok 1.3^18 is 112, but in my chart it takes ~18 days to get 10x | 21:00 |
| corecode | what am i missing? | 21:01 |
| corecode | aaah | 21:01 |
| corecode | recovered | 21:01 |
| corecode | they grow at the same rate | 21:01 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: 1/12 for gamma taken from 12 days as mean infected period? | 21:03 |
| python476 | it's getting clear that COP21 officials engineered covid-19 | 21:05 |
| python476 | measuring the cost of deaths | 21:05 |
| python476 | vs the potential global slowdown | 21:05 |
| mefistofeles | I think that's a bit low for gamma, since I think the mean duration of infectiousness is around 7.5 days | 21:05 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: ↑ | 21:05 |
| corecode | mefistofeles: just fudged numbers until it looked right | 21:05 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: ok | 21:06 |
| corecode | ~1300 deaths and ~1500 critical | 21:06 |
| mefistofeles | python476: nonsense | 21:06 |
| mefistofeles | corecode: for 8million, which is what? | 21:06 |
| mefistofeles | what region/city/country? | 21:06 |
| corecode | oh that was switzerland | 21:06 |
| corecode | doesn't matter in the growth phase | 21:07 |
| mefistofeles | true | 21:07 |
| python476 | mefistofeles: sorry wrong chan | 21:10 |
| python476 | '/join tinfoil-19 | 21:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 20:09 UTC: Coronavirus: UK deaths double in 24 hours: Ten more people have died after testing positive for the virus, NHS England says. → https://is.gd/GZscop | 21:14 |
| astraliam[m] | !cases france | 21:14 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | %cases europe | 21:16 |
| Brainstorm | BravoEchoNovembe: Sorry, europe not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 21:16 |
| python476 | clearly italians have superpowers https://youtu.be/T1xnNfPE52k | 21:17 |
| BravoEchoNovembe | %cases Germany | 21:17 |
| Brainstorm | BravoEchoNovembe: In all areas, Germany, there are 4525 cases, 8 deaths (0.2% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 14, 20:00Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 21:17 |
| twomoon | we need more theories as to why italians have higher mortality rate | 21:18 |
| astraliam[m] | !cases united kingdom | 21:19 |
| Albright | %data idaho | 21:20 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +123 cases (now 156230), +35 recoveries (now 74431) 🔸 Bulgaria: +4 cases (now 41) 🔸 Ecuador: +5 cases (now 28) 🔸 Egypt: +16 cases (now 109) 🔸 Greece: +6 recoveries (now 8) 🔸 Guadeloupe: +2 cases (now 3) 🔸 Hong Kong: +4 cases (now 142), +3 recoveries (now 81) 🔸 Hungary: +5 cases (now 30) 🔸 Israel: +15 cases (now 193) 🔸 Japan: +22 recoveries (now 144) 🔸 Martinique: +1 cases (now 10) 🔸 Norway | 21:20 |
| Albright | !cases idaho | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: In Idaho, US, there are 1 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 14, 20:15Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 21:21 |
| Albright | And there it is. | 21:21 |
| Albright | I know it's in my county. Don't know if it's in the same city. | 21:21 |
| exoteric | !cases florida | 21:22 |
| Albright | Rumor is it's an HP employee. | 21:22 |
| corecode | mefistofeles: https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/gist.githubusercontent.com/corecode/6ba5876eb7769a8c53a39cc8c42ae410/raw/a03acc90c0d13e15e6f83a5d37958aee73c17bbe/covid.ipynb updated | 21:27 |
| astraliam[m] | first hand news from a doctor in France that anti inflamatories can be harmful | 21:29 |
| corecode | link? | 21:29 |
| python476 | astraliam[m]: saw these links too | 21:31 |
| astraliam[m] | verbal phone call with doctor | 21:31 |
| astraliam[m] | trying to conf with doctor in milan | 21:31 |
| python476 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9xqFpl2Wno | 21:31 |
| python476 | tiny video | 21:31 |
| python476 | reports of ibuprofen worsening the health of young patients | 21:31 |
| jiffe | lol I love how JHU lists "Cruise Ship" as its own reigion | 21:32 |
| python476 | corecode: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2213-2600%2820%2930116-8 | 21:33 |
| python476 | covid infects cells through ACE* | 21:33 |
| python476 | and ibuprofen (amongst other medicines) increases ACE | 21:33 |
| tinwhiskers | ACE-2 | 21:33 |
| python476 | *only 2 ? | 21:33 |
| corecode | huh? | 21:34 |
| corecode | you think ibuprofen upregulates ace-2 expression that quickly? | 21:34 |
| python476 | corecode: this pdf is probably the source for the anti inflammatory advice | 21:35 |
| python476 | corecode: I just read bits of the document | 21:35 |
| python476 | if people here have medical diplomas, go on to check | 21:35 |
| corecode | but that pdf talks about pepole getting ARBs | 21:35 |
| corecode | python476: where does the ibuprofen <> ACE information come from? | 21:37 |
| python476 | 2nd column, top | 21:38 |
| tinwhiskers | ibuprofen is an ARB | 21:38 |
| corecode | ah | 21:38 |
| python476 | ACE2 can also be increased by thiazolidinediones and ibuprofen. These data suggest that ACE2 expression is increased in diabetes and treatment with ACE inhibitors and ARBs increases ACE2 expression. Consequently, the increased expression of ACE2 would facilitate infection with COVID-19. | 21:38 |
| corecode | do we know how quickly ACE2 gets upregulated? | 21:39 |
| ubLIX | python476: can you paste the title of that paper? i can't get the link to work for some reason | 21:41 |
| ubLIX | or the DOI even | 21:41 |
| python476 | ubLIX: on my wai | 21:42 |
| python476 | DOI | 21:42 |
| python476 | here. | 21:42 |
| python476 | (bear my humor while the pdf reloads) | 21:42 |
| python476 | 10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30116-8 | 21:43 |
| python476 | https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30116-8 redundant but just in case | 21:43 |
| python476 | "Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection? Lei Fang, George Karakiulakis, Michael Roth" | 21:44 |
| ubLIX | *yoink succes* | 21:44 |
| ubLIX | ty | 21:44 |
| dunnp | Johns Hopkins closing all research starting Wednesday wow | 21:46 |
| python476 | why | 21:46 |
| dunnp | to stop spread I guess | 21:48 |
| dunnp | Duke also closed | 21:48 |
| python476 | well "all" research involves covid research too ? | 21:49 |
| python476 | that's why I'm surprised | 21:49 |
| tinwhiskers | oh no | 21:49 |
| dunnp | yep | 21:49 |
| tinwhiskers | what about our data?! | 21:49 |
| dunnp | tinwhiskers: that is probably someone already working remotely | 21:49 |
| dunnp | its all the wet lab research that has to shut down | 21:49 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, maybe | 21:49 |
| dunnp | python476: I hope that they can get special permission to continue | 21:50 |
| python476 | surely they made arrangements | 21:50 |
| dunnp | that gives too much credit to the administration hah | 21:50 |
| tinwhiskers | maybe they could hand it over to someone else who won't screw it up so badly as well | 21:50 |
| python476 | ^^ | 21:50 |
| dunnp | is JHU screwing up the research? | 21:51 |
| dunnp | sorry I meant JHU administration not the gov't | 21:51 |
| tinwhiskers | just the data | 21:51 |
| dunnp | dean's office just closed it all broadly - probably didn't think about specific projects | 21:51 |
| ryouma | i presume you mean the rate is falling meaning good news rather than the unit you posted as number of days to double --- 12:54 <tinwhiskers> it's been falling, as it has for most countries | 21:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 20:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: France closes most stores, Spain imposes lockdown, US restricts UK travel → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 21:53 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: I actually meant increasing :-/ | 21:53 |
| ryouma | um, so number of days to double has been decreasing? | 21:54 |
| ryouma | meaning acceleration? | 21:54 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: increasing is good though | 21:54 |
| ryouma | ok i am lost | 21:54 |
| tinwhiskers | The number of days for doubling has been *increasing*. | 21:55 |
| ryouma | ok. good. | 21:55 |
| python476 | increased span / decreased rate | 21:57 |
| corecode | i think this doubling numer is an artifact of the testing | 21:57 |
| corecode | and not of the infection | 21:57 |
| ubLIX | ¿porque no los dos | 21:58 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: yes, this is for confirmed (tested) cases | 21:58 |
| tinwhiskers | we can't do much with the untested data... :-) | 21:59 |
| LjL | i wonder if we could obtain a better estimate of... various things... by considering the total amount of tests performed (at least in countries where that's still disclosed, since apparently the US doesn't) | 22:02 |
| corecode | yea so i think that rate is not meaningful | 22:02 |
| LjL | but even then, you don't know *why* those tests were performed | 22:02 |
| corecode | that's why i've only been looking at the number of dead vs critical | 22:02 |
| LjL | testing random samples of the population will yield something very different from testing only symptomatic people, or contacts of known positives | 22:02 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: aren't the dead and critical only counted if they've been previously tested positive? | 22:03 |
| LjL | corecode, "critical" as released by italy, for example, is really just the number of ICU patients i'm afraid, which is limited by the availability of ICU beds | 22:03 |
| LjL | "deaths" are a somewhat more robust number, but a delayed one | 22:03 |
| LjL | so i'm not sure there's any ideal metric | 22:04 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i guess it's somewhat reasonable to assume that at least in most cases, if you die from a bad pneumonia, these days you're going to get tested for COVID-19, at least post-mortem, unless the shortage of tests is real bad | 22:04 |
| tinwhiskers | fair | 22:05 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: how did you get your doubling figure that you used to derive beta? | 22:07 |
| corecode | i looked at the number of days doubling | 22:07 |
| corecode | but now i've realized that it is complete bunk | 22:07 |
| corecode | because it has to do with testing, not with spread | 22:07 |
| tinwhiskers | ok | 22:07 |
| corecode | now i'm looking at doubling of deaths | 22:07 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. ok | 22:07 |
| corecode | which seems to be every 2 days? | 22:08 |
| tinwhiskers | goo dplan | 22:08 |
| tinwhiskers | I'll just switch mine over to deaths | 22:08 |
| corecode | what kind of model are you using? | 22:08 |
| tinwhiskers | no model. Just doing doubling. | 22:09 |
| corecode | do you publish your data somewhere? | 22:09 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, one sec | 22:10 |
| tinwhiskers | https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy see the bottom graph (still using infected, not deaths) | 22:10 |
| corecode | ah that's your page | 22:10 |
| corecode | thanks | 22:10 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, why is there a flat bit on the graph between yesterday and the day before, anyway? | 22:11 |
| LjL | not just for italy, but also not for every country | 22:12 |
| LjL | for instance spain has it, but iran doesn't | 22:12 |
| LjL | the "World" graph looks pretty scary now :( | 22:12 |
| LjL | for anyone who isn't in China | 22:12 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: I assumed that was in the JH data, but never actually checked | 22:13 |
| Birosso | Working the cash register today was a nightmare. | 22:13 |
| Birosso | We were the only store that had toilet paper left! | 22:13 |
| Birosso | AND WE HAD A LOT OF TOILET PAPER LEFT! | 22:13 |
| LjL | Birosso, congratulations for being in the second best possible line of work at this time | 22:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 20:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives' → https://is.gd/KuR0R6 | 22:13 |
| Birosso | LjL: As expected, I touched my face the entire day. | 22:14 |
| LjL | "risking"? pretty sure they know they're losing them | 22:14 |
| LjL | Birosso, :( did they give you masks | 22:14 |
| Birosso | I already sent my notice a week ago (Not related to Corona) but I still have to work until the end of the month as per the contract. | 22:14 |
| Birosso | No, no masks. | 22:14 |
| ryouma | i fear epecially in the uk policy might be inlfluenced by the fact that some might be influenced by the idea that old and disabled are dispensible and that in some respects they feel they are better off without them | 22:16 |
| corecode | neh | 22:16 |
| ryouma | also in other countries and in de facto hospital chain policies | 22:16 |
| corecode | i doubt | 22:16 |
| Birosso | Are we sure we're talking about the UK? | 22:16 |
| ryouma | the uk in particular, unfortunately. they have wonderful nhs, but they have dark policy stretching back 30y for chronic diseases they don't want to take seriously. | 22:17 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah, that step in the data is from the JH time-series data | 22:17 |
| corecode | argh, no matter how i tune my numbers, i get 200x mild vs severe | 22:17 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, too bad, it's pretty disruptive | 22:17 |
| corecode | which would mean we already have 100k recovered in italy and 300k currently mildly sick | 22:18 |
| corecode | i must be wrong | 22:18 |
| corecode | i must be missing something totally obvious to epidemiologists | 22:19 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: some people get very minor symptoms. it's possibly right? | 22:19 |
| LjL | Birosso, i can't imagine how you would *not* get infected if you keep doing that job for the next two weeks. maybe getting infected now wouldn't even be the worst thing, but i think it's something you should take into account as more than a remote possibility | 22:19 |
| corecode | possible, yes | 22:19 |
| corecode | but i question my crude and uninformed model | 22:19 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, but then if that outcome is not sensitive to changing your parameters that speaks well of it | 22:20 |
| tinwhiskers | or... not | 22:20 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm | 22:20 |
| dunnp | big clinic in Toronto is running out of swabs for testing.. because they are made in Italy | 22:20 |
| tinwhiskers | d'oh | 22:20 |
| dunnp | and not getting any more shipments | 22:20 |
| corecode | well, i keep tweaking parameters to match ~ number of critical and dead and rate of death | 22:20 |
| LjL | corecode, i don't know if you're right or wrong but i think when they tried to get to tbe bottom of it in China they did *not* find a huge swarm of people who were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. sure there are some, but if your model predicts an overwhelming majority, i think it's at odds with the little data we have on the matter | 22:21 |
| corecode | LjL: yes, but i don't know how to correct for that :) | 22:21 |
| LjL | dunnp, and Italy has ordered 50 million masks but most of those orders are getting cancelled because the countries where those are produced are requisitioning exports. and we produce *none* of our own. | 22:21 |
| dunnp | yea supply chains are very intertwined | 22:22 |
| astraliam[m] | https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/ | 22:23 |
| ubLIX | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22577132 and https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538 | 22:23 |
| adventurer | that's good to protect the elderly | 22:23 |
| ryouma | LjL: can any of your industrial mfrs retool to make them? | 22:23 |
| adventurer | well i better read the article | 22:23 |
| adventurer | before i say is good or not | 22:24 |
| adventurer | ahh can't behind an add/paywall | 22:24 |
| ryouma | quarantine on thec ruise ship did not work well | 22:24 |
| LjL | ryouma, they are now "working on that". i am not entirely sure what they were waiting for. | 22:24 |
| ubLIX | ^ government policy to allow rapid infection of young people for herd immunity? | 22:24 |
| corecode | LjL: how do you explain all these mystery political leaders/actors infections? | 22:26 |
| tinwhiskers | tall poppies | 22:26 |
| corecode | they get it from somebody who must be only mildly symptomatic | 22:26 |
| LjL | corecode, not sure, one possibility is that expose themselves to a lot of handshake and people coughing on them | 22:26 |
| ryouma | remember hurricane katrina | 22:26 |
| ryouma | without paying attention to old and disabled the policy will be a problem | 22:26 |
| tinwhiskers | It's no surprise that some actors are infected and they are just reported in the media, whereas joe from number 6 isn't. | 22:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:21 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: France closes most stores, Spain imposes lockdown, US restricts UK travel → https://is.gd/L2OfuA | 22:27 |
| LjL | "What keeps ministers and officials awake at night is the fear that if the epidemic becomes too great they would have to make appalling decisions, such as that the NHS would stop treating people over a certain age, such as 65." | 22:28 |
| tinwhiskers | :-/ | 22:28 |
| LjL | that seems a very specific number drawn directly from Italian indiscretions | 22:28 |
| tinwhiskers | it does | 22:28 |
| corecode | oh you better hope there are tons of so low symptom people that they are not being registered | 22:29 |
| LjL | how are they planning to quarantine the over-70 if they live with someone under 70? or does that somehow just not happen in the UK | 22:29 |
| corecode | rarely, i guess | 22:30 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: Does Boris look like he has covid-19 there? | 22:30 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm. the other ministers don't look great either, but I suppose they haven't had a lot of sleep | 22:31 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, don't think i can guess that from a still image... Trump didn't look too well in his speech imo, but really, i don't typically stare at Trump or Johnson long enough to know their baseline | 22:31 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 22:32 |
| commandocrypto[m | python476: s/ACE/ACE2/g | 22:33 |
| commandocrypto[m | !help | 22:34 |
| ryouma | !cases texas | 22:34 |
| ryouma | !cases arizona | 22:35 |
| ryouma | !cases utah | 22:35 |
| commandocrypto[m | %help | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | commandocrypto[m: Hi, I am LjL's bot! Say %modules or %commands to me in private to see my features. | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +164 cases (now 156394), +5 deaths (now 5824), +13 recoveries (now 74444) 🔸 Bulgaria: +4 cases (now 41) 🔸 Cyprus: +5 cases (now 26) 🔸 Ecuador: +5 cases (now 28) 🔸 Egypt: +16 cases (now 109) 🔸 Germany: +60 cases (now 4585), +1 deaths (now 9) 🔸 Greece: +6 recoveries (now 8) 🔸 Guadeloupe: +2 cases (now 3) 🔸 Hong Kong: +4 cases (now 142), +3 recoveries (now 81) 🔸 Hungary: +5 cases (now 30) 🔸 Indi | 22:36 |
| python476 | boris got covid after kissing donnie | 22:37 |
| dunnp | I think Texas is going to blow up | 22:38 |
| python476 | how so | 22:38 |
| python476 | it's large | 22:38 |
| dunnp | people are ignoring the idea of being isolated - students out partying since they don't have any more class | 22:39 |
| dunnp | kinda like LjL indicated Italy was early on | 22:40 |
| Birosso | %cases Germany | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | Birosso: In all areas, Germany, there are 4585 cases, 9 deaths (0.2% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 14, 21:34Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 22:40 |
| Birosso | Oh boy. | 22:40 |
| LjL | dunnp, i'm afraid still is | 22:40 |
| Birosso | On the pluse side, though, I got to ride the bus for free today! | 22:40 |
| dunnp | Germany seems to be doing really well | 22:40 |
| Birosso | Because they wanted to limit contact with the driver and crowding near the entrance (where you pay). | 22:40 |
| LjL | Birosso, so same as most italians on most days? | 22:40 |
| Birosso | So we just didn't pay. :D | 22:40 |
| Birosso | LjL: You're making me jealous now. :C | 22:41 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: so the lockdown may be increasing the rate of spread in Italy? | 22:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 21:37 UTC: Coronavirus: UK deaths double in 24 hours: Ten more people have died after testing positive for the virus, NHS England says. → https://is.gd/GZscop | 22:41 |
| LjL | Birosso, ticket collector was like "it's fine, we're all italians here, unlike all those immigrants without a ticket" and i thought "what, is he saying he won't fine me because i'm italian...?" but then he said "okay, it's €33 if you pay now" and i realized he simply meant that it was easier to make me pay than to chase people twice as tall as him | 22:42 |
| corecode | so that would be the reason why the UK doesn't put down social distancing yet | 22:43 |
| corecode | not enough death = people do not comply | 22:43 |
| contingo | %cases Denmark | 22:43 |
| Brainstorm | contingo: In all areas, Denmark, there are 827 cases, 1 deaths (0.1% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 14, 21:34Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Denmark for time series data. | 22:43 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: maybe | 22:44 |
| ryouma | the disturbing thing was the article that said that the distance thing was from some study in the 1940s that was dodgy so ti could be more | 22:44 |
| ryouma | i.e. you need to be farther apart from one another | 22:44 |
| ryouma | (for best results) | 22:44 |
| tinwhiskers | Chinese are aiming at 4m, right? | 22:45 |
| ryouma | but eh, that was a newspapaer article. maybe it was all figured out. | 22:45 |
| LjL | i'm pretty sure our "1m" law was put in place simply because making it more than 1m would just make people be like "seriously? that's ridiculous, we ain't gonna do that" | 22:45 |
| LjL | certainly not because 1m is "enough" | 22:45 |
| ryouma | i think doctors are all saying 6ft or 2m smoething like that? | 22:45 |
| tinwhiskers | Except I saw a few delivery people in China handing packages over instead of placing them on the ground, but mostly they didn't go near each other (in the video I saw). | 22:45 |
| LjL | ryouma, not in italy, at least not the ones who don't want to confuse us by saying different things from what the government does | 22:46 |
| ryouma | but if you have mask and gloves and do not get your mask contaminated, it can be quite close, a fwe inches presumably | 22:46 |
| ryouma | so health care workser are not concerned but thery need ppe | 22:46 |
| Birosso | LjL: Where would the police be in that situation? | 22:49 |
| LjL | contingo, the Denmark case graph looks a bit too suspiciously linear | 22:49 |
| LjL | Birosso, police usually play no role in ticket checking | 22:50 |
| LjL | Birosso, if you run, then i guess they may call the police on you, but unless it's a metro station and they're already ten meters away, good luck with that | 22:50 |
| LjL | the case graphs for Germany and France are almost a perfect match... unlike the deaths graphs | 22:56 |
| dunnp | Harvard is mothballing now | 22:56 |
| dunnp | damn | 22:56 |
| tinwhiskers | New York City's Department of Transportation announced on Wednesday that it's seen a 50 percent increase in bike traffic over the last week (due to concerns over using public transport). | 22:56 |
| Birosso | LjL: Do you know what else is trending on the news regarding Corona? Discussions about how we could ensure the continuation of "culture life," talking about plans for theaters to set up live streams and libraries to acquire licensing for digital versions of books for their members. | 22:58 |
| Birosso | This country... | 22:58 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, what's the increase of deaths from bicycle accidents? :P | 22:58 |
| Birosso | *cultural life | 22:58 |
| tinwhiskers | The coronavirus pandemic has also caused a 15 percent drop in rush-hour traffic this week compared to the same time last year. That means less pollution for cyclists to choke on and fewer chances of dangerous collisions. | 22:58 |
| LjL | Birosso, we have a website dedicated to the services we can get for free or for a nominal fee during these lockdown times, although i haven't really checked it since after they extended the lockdown from Lombardy to Everything | 22:59 |
| Birosso | Nice. | 22:59 |
| LjL | Birosso, i suspect it's ridiculously hard to prove your identity and actually get the freebies, and much easier to just torrent the freebies | 22:59 |
| LjL | haha | 23:00 |
| LjL | %tr A causa della grande risposta all'iniziativa sulla solidarietà digitale e alle centinaia di offerte che stanno arrivando in queste ore, l’istruttoria e la pubblicazione potrebbero richiedere qualche giorno. Ci scusiamo per l'attesa | 23:00 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: Due to the great response to the digital solidarity initiative and the hundreds of offers that are arriving in these hours, the investigation and publication may take a few days. We apologize for the wait (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 23:00 |
| LjL | Birosso, anyway, https://solidarietadigitale.agid.gov.it/#/ | 23:00 |
| LjL | "great" is not what they mean there | 23:00 |
| corecode | https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/gist.githubusercontent.com/corecode/6ba5876eb7769a8c53a39cc8c42ae410/raw/68f78536676d531d344721aa61e20753905e37da/covid.ipynb | 23:19 |
| corecode | updated, with some documentation | 23:19 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: why does rAlive end up at S[0]? | 23:24 |
| corecode | what is S[0]? | 23:25 |
| tinwhiskers | S at t=0 | 23:25 |
| corecode | oh, because it is logarithmic | 23:25 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. right | 23:25 |
| corecode | or i have a math error :) | 23:26 |
| corecode | i also have functions to do a simulation where beta changes over time | 23:26 |
| corecode | but i didn't plot that right now | 23:26 |
| tinwhiskers | is it possible to make the graph give hover-over values? | 23:29 |
| Brainstorm | 🔶 World: +129 cases (now 156523), +8 recoveries (now 74452) 🔶 US: +151 cases (now 2660) 🔸 Bulgaria: +4 cases (now 41) 🔸 Canada: +22 cases (now 247) 🔸 Costa Rica: +1 cases (now 27) 🔸 Cyprus: +5 cases (now 26) 🔸 Ecuador: +5 cases (now 28) 🔸 Egypt: +16 cases (now 109) 🔸 Finland: +8 recoveries (now 9) 🔸 Germany: +74 cases (now 4599), +1 deaths (now 9) 🔸 Greece: +6 recoveries (now 8) 🔸 Guadeloupe: +2 | 23:30 |
| corecode | tinwhiskers: didn't find a way, but if you figure it out, please fork and update | 23:31 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: could you plot it on a non-log scale for a sec? | 23:33 |
| corecode | i guess | 23:33 |
| corecode | you just need to remove the y_log scale | 23:33 |
| corecode | in the plot function | 23:33 |
| tinwhiskers | I can't be bothered forking just for that | 23:33 |
| corecode | the problem with linear scale is that you lose the detail | 23:34 |
| corecode | or you lose the top end | 23:34 |
| tinwhiskers | ok. nevermind | 23:34 |
| corecode | https://imgur.com/ETXP31k.png | 23:35 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. ok. that looks good. thanks | 23:36 |
| dunnp | what day is today corecode | 23:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 22:35 UTC: /u/Isentrope: Joe Bruno su Twitter: "Breaking- Governor Roy Cooper will announce a closure of all public schools in North Carolina for at least two weeks, per two sources @wsoctv" → https://is.gd/uoT8J5 | 23:37 |
| corecode | dunnp: on the chart? | 23:37 |
| dunnp | yes | 23:37 |
| corecode | around deaths/icu == 1000 | 23:37 |
| corecode | a bit later maybe | 23:37 |
| dunnp | I dont see deaths/icu on the plot | 23:38 |
| dunnp | maybe I'm looking at the wrong one | 23:38 |
| corecode | Isevere and Rdead | 23:38 |
| dunnp | no y-axis here | 23:39 |
| corecode | wut? | 23:39 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode: oh, actually I was interested in the "low severity rate, high # of undiagnosed cases" chart without the log scale. That one values for Ralive seem too high but I can't tell on a log scale. | 23:39 |
| corecode | what are you looking at? | 23:39 |
| dunnp | the imgur link you pasted | 23:40 |
| corecode | yea don't use that | 23:40 |
| corecode | shit is unreadable | 23:40 |
| corecode | on linear scale | 23:40 |
| carebot1[m] | https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ | 23:40 |
| tinwhiskers | dunnp: around day 28 | 23:41 |
| corecode | you really need to play with the numbers to get a feeling | 23:41 |
| corecode | but all is bad | 23:41 |
| python476 | carebot1[m]: nice | 23:42 |
| dunnp | tinwhiskers: on the imgur link? | 23:42 |
| corecode | https://imgur.com/sldeFz1.png | 23:42 |
| LjL | slash_, what do you make of this? https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fipavk/more_than_half_of_icu_patients_are_below_50yrs_of/ (i can't read the article, google translate fails) | 23:42 |
| tinwhiskers | well, on either, but as corecode says without the log scale you can't tell much at day 28 | 23:42 |
| dunnp | ah I see | 23:42 |
| dunnp | epidemiologist I just talked to thinks max in mid-April in the US so this seems to match up well if we are at day 28 | 23:43 |
| pieceofpeace1[m] | all people over 70 are advised to self isolate for 4 months late next week. https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR27IA-7B1WB4lTLh6IDLU7eDiptY89Saf6LTj90_osW4mSF2oBcNkfR6jw UK | 23:44 |
| tinwhiskers | mid-april seems very quick | 23:44 |
| dunnp | seems to match with corecode's model | 23:44 |
| tinwhiskers | if if goes that quick the healthcare system will collapse | 23:44 |
| dunnp | but maybe the isolation and closing of schools will slow it | 23:44 |
| dunnp | probably | 23:45 |
| corecode | hopefully | 23:45 |
| tinwhiskers | corecode's model is without mitigation. let's hope it takes more like 4 months | 23:45 |
| corecode | number of deaths is the same tho | 23:45 |
| corecode | if slow or fast | 23:45 |
| corecode | this model does not account for system overload | 23:45 |
| tinwhiskers | no | 23:45 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, right | 23:46 |
| corecode | i think we're seeing some weird artifact with that many deaths | 23:46 |
| tinwhiskers | in reality I mean, the deaths will be far lower if takes longer than one month | 23:46 |
| corecode | why would it be lower? | 23:46 |
| corecode | i mean, i agree | 23:46 |
| tinwhiskers | because health systems can cope better | 23:46 |
| corecode | if total case fatality rate is 1%, then we will get 1% | 23:47 |
| corecode | independent of flatness of curve | 23:47 |
| tinwhiskers | no | 23:47 |
| tinwhiskers | the fatality rate changes with different/no care | 23:47 |
| corecode | yes | 23:47 |
| corecode | but my model doesn't show that | 23:47 |
| corecode | unless the italian deaths have been affected by this from the beginning | 23:47 |
| tinwhiskers | right. As I said, "in reality" | 23:47 |
| corecode | in reality, it would be even worse than the model, yes | 23:48 |
| tinwhiskers | erm | 23:48 |
| corecode | but the model is wrong, of course | 23:48 |
| LjL | the italian death/cases ratio was not as bad as it looks today at the beginning, it kept getting higher | 23:48 |
| LjL | except today i guess, it got a tiny bit lower | 23:48 |
| corecode | LjL: deaths seem to be doubling every 2 days? | 23:48 |
| corecode | again, it could be an artifact of the tests | 23:49 |
| RougeR | https://www.dropbox.com/s/d5jqdmsxgwrjz6v/ICU_beds.pdf?dl=0 | 23:49 |
| LjL | corecode, i'm really not sure, i just thought i'd mention it hasn't stayed mostly constant | 23:50 |
| corecode | RougeR: fake news | 23:50 |
| RougeR | pardon | 23:50 |
| RougeR | i havnt even read it | 23:50 |
| corecode | ok | 23:50 |
| RougeR | im just posting it to get input | 23:50 |
| RougeR | dont just spam fake news | 23:50 |
| corecode | well i read the first paragraph | 23:50 |
| RougeR | like a dumb drumf supporter | 23:50 |
| LjL | also the thing i liked about the netherlands, if about half of the ICU admissions are under 50 (in a non-overwhelmed, non-triaging system), then the death among younger age groups would likely skyrocket when the system is *way* overwhelmed | 23:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 22:35 UTC: Coronavirus: UK deaths double in 24 hours: Ten more people have died after testing positive for the virus, NHS England says. → https://is.gd/GZscop | 23:51 |
| corecode | i'm still missing a primary source | 23:51 |
| RougeR | corecode, stop bothering me | 23:51 |
| LjL | what is happening here commandocrypto[m | 23:51 |
| corecode | ok | 23:51 |
| RougeR | ive given you plenty | 23:51 |
| RougeR | if you lack basic reading comprehension thats not on me | 23:51 |
| corecode | none of them said in clear terms what this article claims in the first paragraph | 23:51 |
| tinwhiskers | RougeR: isn't that based on the policy *before* the UK changed tack yesterday? | 23:52 |
| RougeR | www.reddit.co.uk/r/ukpolitics | 23:52 |
| corecode | of course, if that is the strategy, it is disastrous | 23:52 |
| RougeR | it is the policy. herd immunity | 23:52 |
| RougeR | tinwhiskers, how did they change tacks? | 23:52 |
| tinwhiskers | ffs. herd immunity is not a policy. please stop repeating that crap | 23:53 |
| RougeR | well then EVERY new site, the uk chief medical officer | 23:53 |
| LjL | commandocrypto[m, those videos look concerning, but with complete lack of context or verification, i think they'll just make people, well... concerned, and perhaps shocked, and i am not comfortable with keeping them posted | 23:53 |
| tinwhiskers | are you drunk again? | 23:53 |
| RougeR | and the uk immunologists society are wrong | 23:53 |
| RougeR | https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response | 23:53 |
| RougeR | https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response | 23:53 |
| RougeR | https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response | 23:53 |
| RougeR | The world faces a huge challenge in light of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. The UK’s public health strategy differs from many other countries, with an aim to build herd immunity to protect the population. Within the immunology community, we have significant questions about this strategy. The ultimate aim of herd immunity is to stop disease spread and protect the most vulnerable in society. However, this strategy only works to reduce serious diseas | 23:54 |
| RougeR | e if, when building that immunity, vulnerable individuals are protected from becoming ill, for example through social distancing. If not, the consequences could be severe. | 23:54 |
| RougeR | Yeah they are wrong? | 23:54 |
| tinwhiskers | ffs | 23:54 |
| LjL | woah | 23:54 |
| RougeR | dditionally, there are many unknowns in how the SARS-CoV-2 virus interacts with the human immune system and how this might play into current scenarios. For example, we don’t yet know if this novel virus will induce long-term immunity in those affected as other related viruses do not. Therefore, it would be prudent to prevent infection in the first place. More research is urgently needed on this front. | 23:54 |
| RougeR | The UK leads the world for the quality of our immunology research. Given our current lack of knowledge on SARS-CoV-2, our community of immunologists have two asks. Firstly, we feel more needs to be done to ensure social distancing to limit the number of COVID-19 cases in the short term, especially for vulnerable members of our communities. This will enable us to buy time until we understand the virus better and can begin to develop therapeutics. | 23:54 |
| RougeR | Secondly, to aid efforts, we call on the government to release their modelling data to allow scrutiny from the scientific community to better predict the course of this outbreak. | 23:54 |
| RougeR | We have a small window of opportunity to protect our nation, to learn about this new emerging virus and to deal with this unprecedented threat to global health. | 23:54 |
| RougeR | Professor Arne Akbar | 23:54 |
| RougeR | President, British Society for Immunology | 23:54 |
| RougeR | How is it not the policy? | 23:54 |
| Birosso | Mother of spam! | 23:55 |
| LjL | RougeR, you cannot just... do... that | 23:55 |
| RougeR | then put in place spam filters | 23:55 |
| corecode | i think RougeR wanted to cite this for me | 23:55 |
| LjL | pieceofpeace1[m], i just removed the identical videos. i'm not sure if you're the same person posting them, but i'm going to re-remove them | 23:55 |
| corecode | so i feel responsible for the spam | 23:55 |
| LjL | RougeR, i'm the spam filter at this time, hence i've muted you | 23:55 |
| RougeR | huh | 23:56 |
| tinwhiskers | no, he just rants a lot | 23:56 |
| eviscerate | Wuhan Boogaloo! | 23:56 |
| LjL | RougeR, my lacking spam filters is not somehow a justification for you spamming | 23:56 |
| RougeR | LjL, sorry but im annoyed at having to provide sources | 23:56 |
| RougeR | LjL, no its not | 23:56 |
| corecode | the problem is that this is not a primary source | 23:56 |
| corecode | but somebody claiming that the UK has this herd immunity plan | 23:56 |
| LjL | RougeR, you're annoyed at having to provide sources? | 23:56 |
| RougeR | LjL, ive provided dozens | 23:56 |
| corecode | which if it has, dear lord | 23:56 |
| RougeR | he wont accept them | 23:56 |
| corecode | well i want a primary source | 23:56 |
| corecode | something in a video or a government website | 23:57 |
| corecode | but don't worry about me | 23:57 |
| corecode | don't feel obliged | 23:57 |
| LjL | RougeR, okay, i've had people not accept my arguments despite me thinking they were compelling arguments, and that has often made me mad. but if i go on and spam in response, i don't end up feeling any less mad, i just end up banned | 23:58 |
| RougeR | LjL, its not an argument though | 23:58 |
| RougeR | its failing to accept sources which blatantly say this is what they are doing | 23:58 |
| pieceofpeace1[m] | why are they spam ? | 23:58 |
| tinwhiskers | the uk has no plans to just let the virus run amok until the population reaches herd immunity. All populations will likely reach herd immunity. The UK are planning mitigations to allow health services to cope just like everywhere else. | 23:58 |
| LjL | pieceofpeace1[m], i haven't said they are spam. the spam was another matter. i'll repeat what i've said before about them: | 23:58 |
| LjL | those videos look concerning, but with complete lack of context or verification, i think they'll just make people, well... concerned, and perhaps shocked, and i am not comfortable with keeping them posted | 23:59 |
| tinwhiskers | stop the bullshit about "herd immunity is a policy" | 23:59 |
| skyofdust | "waiting for herd immunity" = country not doing shit about the situation. | 23:59 |
| corecode | i think he bumbled in that sky news interview | 23:59 |
| RougeR | it is the policy | 23:59 |
| RougeR | prove me wrong | 23:59 |
| tinwhiskers | ffs | 23:59 |
| RougeR | ffs | 23:59 |
| corecode | i don't think that's how claims work | 23:59 |
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