| mefistofeles | so, lot of testing, tracking citizens, ventilators, etc. | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| dividediff[m] | ryouma: he's some sci dude who thinks he knows about other fileds wo needing to do a basic search for it. The problem is, randos think ppl like elon actually know sometihngs about corona | 00:02 |
| dividediff[m] | mefistofeles: sars hppened in 2003, ppl didn't even all have cell phones back then (i think), so they must have been adding new features | 00:03 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: for sure | 00:03 |
| mefistofeles | but these drive-thru testing things were already being built back then, if I'm not mistaken | 00:04 |
| dividediff[m] | mefistofeles: impressive health care. In canada, if someone was doing that 4 yrs after, public would be like 'sars was 4 yrs ago, the next pandemic is too far way, these taxes r too high' and just like that it'd be cancelled | 00:09 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: as most parts of the world, because they really didn't feel what an epidemy like SARS could do | 00:10 |
| dividediff[m] | I heard that surgical masks expire... not sure what exactly expires unless like silverfish eat it | 00:11 |
| dividediff[m] | mefistofeles: was korea badly affected by sars? | 00:11 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: I don't know, but these articles/studies seem to suggest so | 00:11 |
| ubLIX | "Seattle Intensivist 1 pager on covid" AKA much more than the layperson wanted to know about COVID-19: https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/1239640226319884288/photo/1 from https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/1239640226319884288 from https://old.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/fkpjjh/hello_i_am_an_anesthesiologist_icu_physician_and/ | 00:12 |
| ryouma | can you tell if you ahve a fever without a thermometer? | 00:12 |
| dividediff[m] | ill look up sars | 00:12 |
| ryouma | we hacve none i think | 00:12 |
| dividediff[m] | ryouma: do you have mercury anywhere? | 00:13 |
| ryouma | i don't think we have mercury thermometers or electronic ones | 00:13 |
| ryouma | we have no loose mercury | 00:13 |
| LjL | ryouma, many people will "feel" a fever but you can't really be sure without measuring it | 00:13 |
| ubLIX | but if you feel a fever and also have malaise, which is settled with paracetamol, isn't that quite diagnostic of a fever? | 00:14 |
| dividediff[m] | ryouma: crazy idea, not practical, but home thermometers that control your rooms temperature have mercury and if ur desperate with an internet connection... | 00:14 |
| dividediff[m] | ubLIX: what country r u in again? | 00:15 |
| ubLIX | UK | 00:15 |
| ryouma | dividediff[m]: i have no idea what voodoo you are thinking of but it would be above our physical or cognitive or tehnological capacity. thanks though. | 00:15 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30528-6/fulltext another article on Singapore | 00:15 |
| dividediff[m] | ubLIX: no thermometer? How do you control your heating/cooling? | 00:15 |
| ubLIX | i said thermometer, dividediff[m], not thermostat | 00:16 |
| dividediff[m] | oophs | 00:16 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i often feel malaise without any fever that goes away with paracetamol | 00:16 |
| LjL | ubLIX, without measuring my temperature i wouldn't know i had no fever | 00:16 |
| dividediff[m] | Is paracetamol a brand name? | 00:17 |
| LjL | no | 00:17 |
| ryouma | tylenol | 00:17 |
| LjL | but the active substance is named acetaminophen in the US | 00:17 |
| LjL | for some reason | 00:17 |
| mefistofeles | a real thermostat has to measure temperature, fwiw | 00:17 |
| mefistofeles | :P | 00:17 |
| ubLIX | oh ok | 00:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:05 UTC: US coronavirus live: Senate votes to expand free testing and paid leave: US and Canada to close border to non-essential traffic Sanders reassesses campaign after Biden builds formidable lead Coronavirus US: how many have been tested and is there a shortage? Support the Guardian’s independent journalism. Make a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/bxuXg8 | 00:17 |
| M_[m]4 | oops | 00:17 |
| LjL | <dividediff[m]> ryouma: crazy idea, not practical, but home thermometers that control your rooms temperature have mercury and if ur desperate with an internet connection... ← yep, i agree on the crazy | 00:18 |
| dividediff[m] | yeah thats voodoo i was suggesting basically | 00:18 |
| ubLIX | LjL: i just have no experience of anything that would drive a malaise except running a bit of a temperature | 00:18 |
| ryouma | LjL: maybe musk would do that | 00:18 |
| darsie | ryouma: Healthy ppl may feel you're hot. | 00:19 |
| dividediff[m] | mefistofeles: thought so! Canada had 251 cases due to SARS, (many being drs due to inadequac protection) which makes us the 4th worst affected country | 00:20 |
| darsie | 36.95. That's more than usual. | 00:20 |
| Timvde | ubLIX: I literally bought a thermometer 2 days ago :P | 00:20 |
| ubLIX | i'm quite late to the party as far as supplies are concerned | 00:21 |
| dividediff[m] | mefistofeles: korea only had 3 cases of SARS. | 00:22 |
| dividediff[m] | Where you thinking of korea and h1n1? | 00:22 |
| LjL | darsie, first time i see a digital(?) thermometer with a second decimal digit | 00:22 |
| darsie | LjL: No, you don't. I use a galinstan thermometer and am estimating the second digit. | 00:22 |
| LjL | i see | 00:22 |
| darsie | decimal* | 00:22 |
| dividediff[m] | darsie: i thought humans are usual 37C | 00:22 |
| darsie | I'm usually 36.8. | 00:22 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], that's somehow the typical statement in America. these things are a bit arbitrary. here in Italy, 37°C is usually considered the point *above which* you have a fever. so normally you'd expect between 36 and 37. | 00:23 |
| LjL | it does vary by person, and it might be a good idea to get a baseline of your normal temperature nowadays | 00:24 |
| LjL | so that you know when it's becoming unusual (but don't obsess... take it from me, i obsess) | 00:24 |
| dividediff[m] | Has anyone seen the movie contagion? | 00:25 |
| darsie | My nose felt hot sometimes when exhaling the last few days. | 00:26 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: seen it | 00:26 |
| python476 | it's also trending on torrents websites | 00:27 |
| python476 | also House MD is trending on youtube | 00:27 |
| python476 | covid is gonna turn the planet into a smug swamp | 00:27 |
| M_[m]4 | dividediff: of course | 00:27 |
| HeXiLeD | whoever sneezes or coughs, gets it | 00:27 |
| HeXiLeD | :P | 00:27 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: Aside from entertainment, does it have any value in terms of covid? | 00:27 |
| M_[m]4 | <python476 "also House MD is trending on you"> >it's never covid | 00:28 |
| osomatsu_kun | Day by day, the number of members in this channel increases... 297 now... | 00:28 |
| python476 | M_[m]4: heh | 00:28 |
| python476 | lupus-19 | 00:28 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: probably zero | 00:28 |
| osomatsu_kun | When I joined this channel, it was only 19 or more... | 00:28 |
| python476 | it's just a movie. | 00:28 |
| python476 | osomatsu_kun: are you calling us viruses ? | 00:28 |
| M_[m]4 | <osomatsu_kun "When I joined this channel, it w"> hipster | 00:28 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: i figured, darn tho. I heard that the martian was reasonably scientifically accurate | 00:28 |
| osomatsu_kun | python476: hehe | 00:29 |
| python476 | more and more news of economic blunders | 00:29 |
| python476 | boeing, s&p | 00:29 |
| python476 | finance ministers are probably calling weed dealers 24/7 | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:20 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live: Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights and stand down 20,000 employees – latest updates — from WHO at 23:20: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 00:30 |
| python476 | also news report of China kicking out journalists | 00:30 |
| python476 | givse a hint about their reported stats | 00:30 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: say what about china and journalists | 00:30 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: you mean like in january? | 00:31 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: hold on | 00:31 |
| LjL | i've taken a quick and dirty video of my TV with RAI airing a piece on the enforcement of lockdown checks, for those who were asking... it doesn't clarify much, especially if you don't understand the (low) italian audio, but it's better than what i can show since i can't go outside to show much https://outcasts.win/coronavirus-checks-italy.mp4 | 00:31 |
| python476 | I think we should stop caring about stats, and focus on pragmatic monitoring. primordial stocks, tools, free manpower, potential symptom easers, potential therapies | 00:31 |
| python476 | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/china-expels-more-us-journalists-amid-tit-for-tat-battle.html?recirc=taboolainternal <= dividediff[m] | 00:32 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: oh snap, china vs corona round 2 then | 00:33 |
| LjL | python476, i hope those things are being investigated, but in a channel like this, or at least myself, i can do little aside from discussing numbers | 00:34 |
| M_[m]4 | <python476 "I think we should stop caring ab"> pragmatic | 00:34 |
| python476 | LjL: we all are in no position to do much on this chan I believe | 00:34 |
| python476 | I didn't mean to criticize people here | 00:34 |
| M_[m]4 | <dividediff[m] "python476: oh snap, china vs cor"> round 2? it's still round 1 | 00:34 |
| python476 | just commenting on global strategies | 00:34 |
| M_[m]4 | I'm with python476, the numbers mean fuck all | 00:36 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: this channel is great, the support group function is very helpful. As well as all my friends don't believe corona is a big deal so it's nice to be able to talk about it with ppl wo seemingly delusional! | 00:37 |
| M_[m]4 | potential symptom easers, therapies, monitoring, etc mean a lot | 00:37 |
| python476 | are you trained in any way related to medical care ? | 00:38 |
| python476 | paramedic, nurse, or even secretary | 00:38 |
| dividediff[m] | Like i just got invited to come hang out at mcdonalds or smthg | 00:38 |
| ubLIX | dividediff[m]: anyone who thinks this is nothing to worry about is probably worth avoiding, even if they are your friends. No worry = incautious behaviour; you can help them out with advice once they realise what's going on | 00:38 |
| pagetelegram | davidediff, thank you for your resources. I have passed them on to the facility that houses the mentally ill and they have made immediate actions for lockdown | 00:39 |
| pagetelegram | * and to the others here too. This channel has been very resourceful | 00:39 |
| ubLIX | dividediff[m]: or try to convince them now while standing upwind and several feet away from them | 00:39 |
| M_[m]4 | lol | 00:39 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: who me? No | 00:40 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: you and others | 00:40 |
| python476 | basically I'd like to help if possible | 00:40 |
| pagetelegram | I have been broadcasting CSPAN locally in 100+ residents that have radios. They all listening. I'd like ideas what other audio sources I should plug...there is a lot of online print and visual media, a stark shortage of live audio. | 00:41 |
| dividediff[m] | pagetelegram: np. Uhh what resources did i do? | 00:41 |
| dividediff[m] | ahh | 00:42 |
| pagetelegram | David, you mentioned the online stat site that aggregates the stats better I think than the John Hopkins site | 00:42 |
| ubLIX | this is interesting, but also belongs to the Much More Than You Wanted To Know category: https://emcrit.org/ibcc/covid19/ | 00:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 23:39 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart becomes first member of Congress to test positive for coronavirus - CNNPolitics — from WHO at 23:39: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/vckbHG | 00:42 |
| ubLIX | ^ "Internet Book of Critical Care" COVID-19 section | 00:42 |
| pagetelegram | Thank you....it is apolitical I hope? Dont want shit like Fox or CNN bs. | 00:42 |
| pagetelegram | One slants and spins and the other takes out of context | 00:43 |
| dividediff[m] | pagetelegram: I found this article noteable https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca | 00:43 |
| dividediff[m] | pagetelegram: Youre a ham radio operator? (i think thats the term) | 00:44 |
| pagetelegram | Just SDR, no license...at the looks of it all non-license I suspect will be exempt in an emergency. I am getting HAM radio next week, if shipping allows then. | 00:44 |
| hugues_ | %data france | 00:46 |
| Brainstorm | hugues_: In all areas, France, there are 9134 cases, 264 deaths (2.9% of cases), 602 recoveries as of March 18, 23:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 00:46 |
| LjL | pagetelegram, there are diverging opinions on whether non-licensed people are okay to transmit in an emergency. in particular, don't expect to transmit with impunity unless you are, yourself or people near you, in immediate distress (at least if you are in the US) | 00:47 |
| pagetelegram | LjL: exactly. I will just listen; colleague and I been talking about getting lic for 10 years now....never got to it. | 00:51 |
| Albright | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xICj4dZZT8 | 00:51 |
| pagetelegram | Also a HAM operator I know said it's been dead mostly. I think that may change in times coming up. | 00:52 |
| pagetelegram | I have observed faxes sent over RF, HF and UHF on my SDR and some Morse Code as well, nothing specific to this, just observation. | 00:53 |
| LjL | pagetelegram, i think there's a lot of digital modes being used | 00:53 |
| pagetelegram | I know what modem sounds like :P and yes that too and nearby transformers | 00:53 |
| LjL | there's digital modes on shortwave that you can't pick up with the RTL-SDR (unless it's modded for shortwave, and even then) | 00:53 |
| pagetelegram | Good call, I forgot about SW for a moment in all this. Thank you. | 00:54 |
| tinwhiskers | pagetelegram: infrastructure is unlikely to be affected during this event so it's unlikely HAM is going to be need this time round, but keep up the great hobby; we might need you next time. | 00:56 |
| pagetelegram | Thank you for the assurrence. I'm more conerned of mandates this may lead too. Not as a natural dissaster. | 00:56 |
| oriba | Albright: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU5hjBtDkjE | 00:59 |
| Albright | oriba: HALLELUJAH. Why were his fingers shiny? | 01:01 |
| oriba | Albright: shiny? oily I think... | 01:03 |
| oriba | Albright: desinfectant? (because he is not sure about what he's talking about...?) | 01:04 |
| oriba | preaching for the others, and chemicals for the own hands... | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:50 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live: Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights and stand down 20,000 employees – latest updates — from WHO at 23:50: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 01:06 |
| tinwhiskers | I know it's early days but I'd like to see people who have recovered from the virus and are no longer infectious wearing something (a badge/armband) to let people know they are safe to deal with, and I hope these people will also volunteer to give those that are still at risk some respite. | 01:08 |
| LjL | uuuh i've already heard of people envisioning future scenarios where you have classes based on "previously infected status". i am not sure the idea of a badge or armband can't avoid triggering my... you know, european ww2 instincts | 01:09 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, there is that | 01:09 |
| pwr22 | By popular demand, Cov Bot now (probably) understands country codes | 01:13 |
| pwr22 | !cases nl | 01:13 |
| pwr22 | !cases de | 01:14 |
| pwr22 | etc | 01:14 |
| LjL | whose demand! nobody asked ME! :P | 01:14 |
| pwr22 | I'm sorry LjL 😭 | 01:14 |
| LjL | now i'll do... | 01:14 |
| LjL | i'll do postal codes | 01:14 |
| LjL | nah that makes no sense | 01:14 |
| pwr22 | ha ha, I told someone it now knows multiple ways of saying US and they immediately tried `!cases burgerland` | 01:15 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 01:15 |
| LjL | surely that should be in my synonyms list | 01:15 |
| darsie | !cases Burgenland | 01:16 |
| pagetelegram | !cases Chicago | 01:16 |
| tinwhiskers | %data chicago | 01:17 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: Sorry, chicago not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 01:17 |
| pagetelegram | If using JH data set it is IL not specific cities | 01:17 |
| pagetelegram | !cases Illinois | 01:18 |
| LjL | pagetelegram, yeah, JHU did counties but only for a brief period | 01:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 00:12 UTC: New York state likely has 'tens of thousands' of coronavirus cases, Gov. Cuomo says: The recent spike in cases in New York state is due to testing "revealing more cases," Cuomo says. "I think it is much more widespread than any of these numbers suggest." [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/pCyYbc | 01:19 |
| pwr22 | !cases chicago | 01:20 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: lol | 01:21 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: the data's all fuuuuuked up | 01:21 |
| Spec | USA states became territories under south korea! new world order! | 01:21 |
| tinwhiskers | róh roh | 01:21 |
| LjL | lol | 01:23 |
| tinwhiskers | well, that's neat. I was going to blame JH, but that seems premature. | 01:24 |
| LjL | Spec, at least it's not NORTH korea... or tinwhiskers might be swiftly carried away by a couple of people with sunglasses | 01:25 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 01:25 |
| ryouma | %data ct | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | ryouma: In Connecticut, US, there are 68 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:27 |
| ryouma | %data ny | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | ryouma: In New York, US, there are 2495 cases, 16 deaths (0.6% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:27 |
| ryouma | %data az | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | ryouma: In Arizona, US, there are 27 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:27 |
| ryouma | %data tx | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | ryouma: In Texas, US, there are 173 cases, 3 deaths (1.7% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:27 |
| pagetelegram | !cases NorthKorea | 01:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:25 UTC: US coronavirus live: Senate votes to expand free testing and paid leave: US and Canada to close border to non-essential traffic Sanders reassesses campaign after Biden builds formidable lead Coronavirus US: how many have been tested and is there a shortage? Support the Guardian’s independent journalism. Make a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/bxuXg8 | 01:31 |
| pwr22 | !cases korea | 01:31 |
| KindOne | %data ga | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | KindOne: In all areas, Bulgaria, there are 92 cases, 2 deaths (2.2% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 18, 15:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Bulgaria for time series data. | 01:32 |
| KindOne | %data ga-us | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | KindOne: Sorry, ga-us not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 01:32 |
| KindOne | %data georgia | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | KindOne: In all areas, Georgia, there are 38 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 18, 11:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Georgia for time series data. | 01:32 |
| pwr22 | <KindOne "%data ga-us"> I can potentially add support for stats specified like this if you're interested? | 01:34 |
| yn | %data ohio | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | yn: In Ohio, US, there are 86 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:35 |
| yn | it's actually at 88, https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/ | 01:35 |
| KindOne | how do you specific the specific state? | 01:35 |
| yn | specifically | 01:36 |
| yn | :p | 01:36 |
| KindOne | yn: fake news! | 01:36 |
| yn | lol | 01:37 |
| pwr22 | !cases Georgia (US), United States | 01:38 |
| LjL | KindOne, "ga" should work if it's actually the abbreviation for georgia... at least it should in the sense that it would if i didn't break that again | 01:38 |
| LjL | but anyway you can also do | 01:38 |
| LjL | %cases Georgia, US | 01:38 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Sorry, Georgia, US not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 01:38 |
| LjL | or not | 01:38 |
| LjL | %cases ny | 01:38 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In New York, US, there are 2495 cases, 16 deaths (0.6% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:38 |
| LjL | well if ny still works then i guess ga isn't georgia :P | 01:39 |
| KindOne | some silly country stole our name... after it was named a state. | 01:39 |
| pwr22 | %cases Georgia, (US) | 01:39 |
| Brainstorm | pwr22: Sorry, Georgia, (US) not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 01:39 |
| LjL | pwr22, no it won't work actually, i don't even know why i thought it would, it only searches in the country and province separately | 01:39 |
| LjL | %wa state abbreviation for georgia | 01:40 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Georgia | abbreviation): Result: GA → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=state+abbreviation+for+georgia | 01:40 |
| LjL | dang it! | 01:40 |
| MrBrave | https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public | 01:40 |
| pwr22 | <pwr22 "!cases Georgia (US), United Stat"> LjL: I'm surprised this works, I was fairly certain my implementation of searching the full name was broken | 01:40 |
| LjL | pwr22, probably hadn't crossed my mind to search for the full name at all until now :P | 01:41 |
| pwr22 | <KindOne "how do you specific the specific"> With covbot you can usually just say the name of the state | 01:41 |
| pwr22 | !cases washington | 01:41 |
| LjL | same with Brainstorm, or the abbreviation... unless it's Georgia! :P | 01:41 |
| LjL | actually more of them may be broken, i dunno | 01:41 |
| LjL | %cases va | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Virginia, US, there are 77 cases, 2 deaths (2.6% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:41 |
| LjL | hm | 01:41 |
| pwr22 | People ask Cov Bot things in every possible way you could imagine 😭 | 01:41 |
| xionbox[m] | %cases colorado | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | xionbox[m]: In Colorado, US, there are 184 cases, 2 deaths (1.1% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 00:20Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:41 |
| MrBrave | 0 recovery | 01:42 |
| KindOne | !cases goergia | 01:42 |
| yn | 03>goergia | 01:42 |
| KindOne | er | 01:42 |
| KindOne | !cases georgia | 01:42 |
| yn | 🤷 | 01:42 |
| LjL | MrBrave, recoveries are counted in many ways, i wouldn't pay a lot of attention to that | 01:42 |
| KindOne | um.... that is totally wrong.... its going by the country, not the US State. | 01:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic at 00:28 UTC: Social Distance : “Dear Therapist” on Staying Sane: On The Atlantic ’s new daily(-ish) podcast, Lori Gottlieb of “Dear Therapist” has guidance for Dr. James Hamblin and Katherine Wells on how to stay sane. She gives tips on managing anxiety and talking to family members about the crisis. Recorded at 2 p.m. ET [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qtYkUp | 01:43 |
| pwr22 | Yes, country > US state | 01:43 |
| LjL | KindOne, why would that be *wrong*? O.o | 01:43 |
| MrBrave | Hmm ljl :) I understand your poiny | 01:43 |
| pwr22 | !cases Georgie (US), United States | 01:43 |
| pwr22 | * !cases Georgia (US), United States | 01:43 |
| KindOne | Georgia (state) has over 100 cases and a few deaths ... | 01:43 |
| pwr22 | KindOne: see above | 01:43 |
| KindOne | k | 01:43 |
| KindOne | yn: dont blame me. i blame the keyboard | 01:44 |
| pwr22 | I'll improve that situation eventually but it's an edge case so not a massive priority | 01:44 |
| LjL | okay, well, i'm not running a US-specific bot myself, so countries take precedence for me, but i'll try to make it possible to search GA or "Georgia, US" | 01:44 |
| pwr22 | <LjL "okay, well, i'm not running a US"> Same here | 01:44 |
| dividediff[m] | Japanese flu drug 'clearly effective' in treating coronavirus, says China | 01:47 |
| dividediff[m] | Toronto distillery producing hand sanitizer during coronavirus outbreak | 01:47 |
| LjL | which drug is this? | 01:48 |
| dunnp | favipiravir | 01:48 |
| dunnp | fujifilm! | 01:48 |
| LjL | hmm, definitely not a name that rings a bell, so i guess it's not among the group that i already knew about, although it's not like i can actually remember the names of those either | 01:49 |
| LjL | dunnp, nice, can it fix my cameras that have a lazy shutter too? | 01:49 |
| dunnp | well film companies are really chemistry companies | 01:50 |
| LjL | i kinda wanted to buy second pulse oxymeter because my current one, i have some doubts about it... but they're all gone from Prime. there were so many that i thought they'd mostly stay, but nope | 01:51 |
| dividediff[m] | Saskatchewan, BC, Declares State of Emergency. Ontario declared yest | 01:51 |
| LjL | Ontario is now a yest? what does that entail | 01:52 |
| dividediff[m] | Effective Thursday, only Bolivian citizens and residents may enter the country, the statement said. | 01:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 00:48 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore records 47 new cases, Qantas to suspend international flights — from WHO at 00:48: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Z5Exkx | 01:55 |
| dividediff[m] | Canada and the United States have agreed to restrict non-essential travel across the border | 01:55 |
| xionbox[m] | Idk if this was posted yet, but the US government plans the pandemic to last 18 months | 01:56 |
| xionbox[m] | U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages https://nyti.ms/2WliQGB | 01:56 |
| LjL | i'm not sure they're going as far as planning it | 01:56 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: havent seen that yet. | 01:56 |
| LjL | 18-month is sometimes expected to be the time it takes for a vaccine, though, so it makes sense | 01:56 |
| dividediff[m] | if its 18 months in usa, will it 18 months globally? | 01:57 |
| LjL | who knows | 01:58 |
| LjL | also i really wouldn't start my stopwatch now | 01:58 |
| LjL | if it's 17 or 19 months, i don't think that will change US plans | 01:58 |
| LjL | sometimes headlines are just misleading, too, but i dunno since i can't read the NYT article without registering ;( | 01:59 |
| dividediff[m] | $82-billion aid package to help Canadians and businesses cope. income supports, wage subsidies and tax deferrals. | 02:01 |
| dividediff[m] | Huh! Cana'da's emergencies act was last used by pierre trudeau. It might get used by justin trudeau. | 02:03 |
| dividediff[m] | A new rumor will emerge, if a trudeau is in power a calamity will follow ha | 02:03 |
| LjL | poor Trudeau, he even got it | 02:04 |
| LjL | (probably) | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:51 UTC: Australia coronavirus live: Peter Dutton says he will 'come after' profiteering hoarders – latest updates: Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights and stand down 20,000 employees, as RBA expected to make significant intervention as economic fallout from Covid-19 continues. Follow all the latest news, live [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 02:07 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], the NYT article says "18 months or longer"... which basically means, either the minimum time it takes to create a vaccine, or if it can't be made that quickly... longer. | 02:08 |
| berndj | does anyone know what's going on in north korea? | 02:09 |
| pagetelegram | There is no vaccine for the common cold; impossible imo to create a vaccine for this 'bird' virus;\ | 02:09 |
| dividediff[m] | berndj: I've heard that they have cases in n korea, ive heard that they don't have resources to deal with it, but russia is helping. S korea provided intel that n korea has cases | 02:10 |
| dividediff[m] | berndj: Thats basically literally evything i know about n korea | 02:10 |
| dividediff[m] | Trudeau thinks that corona will continue for minimum weeks or maximum months | 02:11 |
| berndj | at least they don't have much communication with the outside world, so they're behind everyone else's curve i guess? | 02:11 |
| LjL | berndj, i know that South Korea has made a claim that they know about at least 200 NK soldiers who died from COVID | 02:11 |
| LjL | but that was already a while ago | 02:11 |
| LjL | and i have no idea what basis the claim has | 02:11 |
| berndj | i think i saw that claim here | 02:11 |
| dividediff[m] | pagetelegram: the common cold represents ~100 of different of species. Covid-19 is from 1 species | 02:11 |
| LjL | pagetelegram, also, "bird" virus? | 02:12 |
| LjL | this is not the avian flu | 02:12 |
| LjL | oh, corvid, i get it | 02:12 |
| dividediff[m] | berndj: thats a good point. I doubt they have enough ventilators by a long shot tho | 02:12 |
| ubLIX | pagetelegram: there is no vaccine for the common cold because it is not an illness severe enough to motivate the effort (of justify the expense) to develop vaccines for the plethora of mutating viruses that cause common colds | 02:12 |
| ubLIX | *of>or | 02:13 |
| pagetelegram | divid: multation track: https://nextstrain.org/ncov | 02:13 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i wouldn't say that... the common cold is often said to cost pretty enormous amounts in lost working hours. i think it's more about the amount of pathogens and mutations and all that | 02:13 |
| dividediff[m] | Since corona is from bats (i think), we should have called it the batman flu | 02:13 |
| danielp3344 | lol | 02:13 |
| berndj | even if you could, that cold vaccine would only be effective for like 4 weeks as the rhinovirus mutates away from your targeted antigens | 02:13 |
| dividediff[m] | berndj: i would think to vaccine the common cold, the vaccine would have to contain a vaccine for each species of common cold | 02:14 |
| ubLIX | LjL: you're probably right; was just taking a stab at countering pagetelegram's conflation of the common cold with sars-cov-2 | 02:14 |
| berndj | i thought pangolins? they have a delightful name here in afrikaans: ietermago[g] (final g is variable) | 02:14 |
| pagetelegram | https://nextstrain.org/ncov | 02:15 |
| LjL | berndj, a pangolin was postulated as the intermediate host (i.e. the guy who got it from bats to humans) but i don't think that was ever confirmed | 02:15 |
| dividediff[m] | Pic of a common cold vaccine: | 02:15 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], if it's something i'm going to remove, don't post it... oh well. | 02:15 |
| LjL | i'll leave it, i'll use it to threaten people who post meds | 02:16 |
| LjL | err | 02:16 |
| LjL | memes | 02:16 |
| ubLIX | LjL: as a frivolous aside, i can imagine a thousand years from now we will be genetically modified to adapt instantly to any mutation of the common cold viruses | 02:17 |
| ubLIX | *if we're still here in a thousand years | 02:17 |
| LjL | ubLIX, you can imagine a thousand years from now we're still around? | 02:17 |
| LjL | almost quicker | 02:17 |
| ubLIX | the collective 'we' | 02:17 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: i moved 90% of my memes to corona-vox. Vox is a wild place ha | 02:18 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], if it's so wild try not to catch viruses from wild game! | 02:18 |
| berndj | ubLIX, not really, unless the common cold exerts more selective pressure than it does now | 02:21 |
| LjL | berndj, i suspect he was thinking of engineered modification | 02:21 |
| ubLIX | berndj: oh ye of little faith :D | 02:21 |
| berndj | our immune systems basically ARE that "genetic modification to adapt instantly to any mutation of random pathogens" (for some value of "instantly") | 02:22 |
| ubLIX | berndj: ofc i have no realistic idea | 02:22 |
| ubLIX | but 1000 years is a very long time for computational power to advance | 02:23 |
| berndj | creationists always go for the eye as an example of "irreducible complexity", but if i were to make such an argument, i'd pick the immune system as my example | 02:23 |
| LjL | well you know, maybe at some point we could just download new RNA every 4 weeks (if that's how long it takes for a rhinovirus to mutate) | 02:23 |
| LjL | and then a household appliance will actually synthesize that for us | 02:23 |
| LjL | and we inject it with a small needle, or perhaps just breathe it in | 02:23 |
| LjL | and it works as a virus that reprograms us to preemtively know about the next rhinovirus | 02:23 |
| dividediff[m] | Did anyone else just lose connection to this chat? | 02:23 |
| LjL | basically like A-GPS except having nothing to do with GPS | 02:24 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], not here | 02:24 |
| ubLIX | wild imaginings: by then (1000 years) every human body could have implanted the protein-folding computing power of every GPU currently on earth | 02:24 |
| tinwhiskers | Goddamnit John Hopkins! Why must you screw up the data every day! | 02:24 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: i thought their data was good? | 02:24 |
| tinwhiskers | no, it's terrible | 02:25 |
| LjL | ubLIX, wild imaginings: in 1000 years we'll just be starting again to have large metropolitan areas with advanced services such as power grids and computer networks, after the 1000-year old dark age precipitated by COVID and resulting in endless wars and catastrophes | 02:25 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: Hows the internet been in italy? I've had 2 disconnects so far and i don't usually have disconnections | 02:25 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], it's fine, i had one disconnection yesterday because my totally legal torrent went a tad too fast | 02:25 |
| ubLIX | LjL: oh ye of little faith | 02:25 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: Italy has shutdown all non-essential services right? | 02:26 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], not quite | 02:26 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: whats bad about it? | 02:27 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: Does internet count as an essential service? | 02:27 |
| LjL | it has closed down a number of shops, but work activities continue as long as safety can be ensured (which is measured by the ability of employees to be 1m apart from each other OR wearing masks) | 02:27 |
| tinwhiskers | They screw it up every day, renaming, adding duplicate entries with different data, missing data, etc. | 02:27 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], moot question, because the internet is completely not within the realm of any of the things the government has shut down | 02:27 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: IF the gov shuts down all non-essentials, do you think internet will be included? | 02:28 |
| LjL | no | 02:29 |
| LjL | if the internet stops working, if anything, it'll be because too many people are streaming movies since they have to stay home | 02:29 |
| LjL | not saying that's even likely, but it's definitely more likely than the government "shutting it down" | 02:29 |
| dividediff[m] | makes sense internet probably helps ppl not wander off cause of boredom | 02:29 |
| LjL | it also helps, you know, pretty much everything to keep working, like the power grid, communications of all kinds... | 02:30 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: power grids need internet? | 02:30 |
| LjL | no | 02:30 |
| LjL | but power grids need continuous regulation | 02:30 |
| LjL | and once upon a time, that was done manually and via telephone | 02:31 |
| LjL | these days i suspect without an IP network up, it won't work very well | 02:31 |
| dividediff[m] | til | 02:32 |
| dividediff[m] | <LjL "it has closed down a number of s"> I thought 2m apart was the minimum? And i thought wearing masks don't prevent acquision of new infections? | 02:32 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], i am making no scientific claims, i'm telling you the legal requirements the government of Italy set | 02:34 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: i hope italy is following science and that i'm wrong | 02:35 |
| LjL | Italy is following realism | 02:35 |
| LjL | we have no masks, we produce no masks | 02:35 |
| LjL | we make contacts for masks, and they get scrapped | 02:35 |
| xionbox[m] | <LjL "sometimes headlines are just mis"> In the article, they specifically say 18 months is the expected time based on several reoccurances of the virus and several pandemics of the same virus, until a vaccine is developed | 02:35 |
| Albright | If you're interested in the mandatory quarantine/shelter-in-place order vs liberty debate, there's gonna be a debate along those lines on the Killstream (a popular edgi boi online radio show/podcast) tonight. The show just started but they probably won't have the debaters on until a bit later. I'll ping back once the debate starts. | 02:38 |
| xionbox[m] | I dont' know if this was mentioned here yet, but I think there's a bug in the US dataset: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US . This now shows one case | 02:38 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: hmm, a full shutdown of non-essential would help curb the new cases, but im not sure about teh economic dmg. I'm not sure which is more economically dmging for italy: new cases or full non-essential shutdown | 02:38 |
| LjL | xionbox[m], i don't see that in the article, but maybe i'm a bit tired and i'm missing it | 02:38 |
| LjL | xionbox[m], i think tinwhiskers is dealing presently with JHU changing their data format again | 02:39 |
| xionbox[m] | Oh ok | 02:39 |
| tinwhiskers | :-( | 02:39 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], that's the million dollar question. but anyway, even if you limit everything to "essential", you quickly find that a number of things turn out to be essential, or at least essential to other things that are essential... | 02:40 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: true | 02:41 |
| dividediff[m] | offloop is pretty good | 02:41 |
| xionbox[m] | Just took this screenshot form the NYT article LjL | 02:41 |
| dividediff[m] | I hope next pandemic more countries decides to actually contain it... anyone else get the feeling they're not gonna contain the next one either? | 02:42 |
| LjL | xionbox[m], i mean... i certainly saw that part, but it does specifically says "or longer" in that very sentence | 02:43 |
| xionbox[m] | Oh I see, I thought you were disagreeing with the "multiple waves" | 02:43 |
| xionbox[m] | And I agree that the "or longer" is concerning | 02:43 |
| LjL | not at all, multiple waves are a plausible scenario, especially if it kind of fades down in the summer (which i doubt, but it's still possible) | 02:44 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: Have usa annouced when they'll use their war act? | 02:45 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: I believe they did today, yes | 02:45 |
| xionbox[m] | I'm not sure what that allows them to do though | 02:45 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: it says in the pic you posted here just now? | 02:45 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: the ramp up production part | 02:46 |
| xionbox[m] | You're right, ha, thanks | 02:46 |
| xionbox[m] | Wasn't there a ventilator company which said that they could ramp up production 500x but were waiting on purchase orders or something? | 02:47 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: i remeber 5x, but maybe thats a tp company | 02:47 |
| danielp3344 | even more important :P | 02:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:44 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: China reports 34 new cases but none in epicenter Hubei: China's National Health Commission said there were 34 new cases, which it attributed to travelers returning from abroad. — from WHO at 01:44: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Z5Exkx | 02:49 |
| LjL | about the NYT article, can i get a link to "the 100-page plan", which i cannot easily reach from here? | 02:49 |
| LjL | %title https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/18/818026613/advice-from-france-to-avoid-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-leaves-experts-baffled?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=science | 02:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.npr.org: NPR Choice page | 02:51 |
| LjL | gah | 02:51 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: Ventilator Maker: We Can Ramp Up Production Five-Fold - Forbes | 02:51 |
| LjL | "Advice From France To Avoid Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Leaves Experts Baffled" | 02:52 |
| LjL | wanna bet that they told people to avoid ibuprofen because that's one of the drugs they expect a shortage of? :P | 02:52 |
| dividediff[m] | 5 fold = 5x right? | 02:53 |
| xionbox[m] | Yes, that's what El Goog says "five times as great or as numerous." | 02:53 |
| xionbox[m] | LjL: WHO seemed to agree France's report: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/ibuprofen-covid-19-novel-coronavirus-1.5501496 | 02:54 |
| xrogaan | LjL: there are reports of young individual getting worse after taking ibuprofen in the early stages of the disease. | 02:55 |
| xrogaan | LjL: IIRC most younger individuals were just fine, and the common point between those who got in severe/critical condition are ibuprofen. | 02:55 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: during ww1/ww2, i've heard that companies like volkswagon switched from making cars to making volkstanks. Ford is american right? And they make mustangs? I wonder if we'll get mus-tlators | 02:55 |
| ryouma | is ramping up a small amount going to make hospitals not be overwhelmed? | 02:56 |
| LjL | well *this* NPR article says The World Health Organization is looking into the matter, says spokesperson Christian Lindmeier, "but after a rapid review of the literature, [the WHO] is not aware of published clinical or population-based data on this topic." | 02:56 |
| LjL | so don't shoot the messenger, i'm just linking to the article :P | 02:56 |
| xionbox[m] | Oh interesting ! | 02:56 |
| xrogaan | So it seems that anti-inflammatory may make the disease worse. | 02:56 |
| dividediff[m] | ryouma: depends on the country | 02:56 |
| LjL | at this point i wouldn't be particularly surprised if we figured out that the WHO holds multiple positions at once | 02:56 |
| xionbox[m] | It also seems like the conversation around this anti-inflammatory is inflammatory | 02:57 |
| xionbox[m] | :fire: | 02:57 |
| xrogaan | let me get the flamethrower. | 02:57 |
| xrogaan | 🔥🔥🔥 | 02:57 |
| dividediff[m] | I thought xionbox and xrogan were the same user. Both of u have the same profile pic! | 02:58 |
| ubLIX | LjL: just based on the view that asthmatics are advised to avoid all NSAIDs, because in some asthmatics they can induce rapid-onset inflammation, it seems at least plausible that a comparable mechanism could feature in the prodrome of cytokine storm | 02:59 |
| xionbox[m] | Oh yeah, I have never set mine, let me fix that asap | 02:59 |
| xrogaan | I don't have a profile, I'm a IRC man. | 02:59 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: are you using riot? You can see my emojis reactions! :O | 02:59 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: I am yes! Aren't emojis available everywhere on Matrix? | 02:59 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i am not too concerned about this particular diatribe since i only ever take paracetamol anyway :P | 03:00 |
| dividediff[m] | Most ppl here use IRC and it has less features | 03:00 |
| LjL | but i thought this apparent rebuttal was relevant | 03:00 |
| LjL | sometimes less is more | 03:00 |
| xrogaan | LjL: afebryl for me, my sister told me the other day "I take one afebryl in the morning just to be safe.". She's a bit scared :P | 03:00 |
| tinwhiskers | xionbox[m]: ok, I think that should be right now. JH had added a new row for US that looked like it should be a total (they didn't previously have a US total) but it was all zeros except for today, which was 1. ffs. | 03:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 01:59 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Younger Adults Comprise Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S. - The New York Times — from WHO at 01:59: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/eIqJKr | 03:01 |
| LjL | i can see emoji, just not emoji *reactions*, but i already find them to offensively and excessively stand out compared to the *text* which is what i am mainly here for. | 03:01 |
| ubLIX | LjL: everyone seems to have jumped on the 'just use paracetamol' bandwagon for caution's sake. even the NHS has added the note on its coronavirus guidance webpage. | 03:01 |
| xrogaan | emoji are part of the unicode standard. Reactions is some matrix nonsense. | 03:01 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: All this time i've been reacting to ppls msgs and snickering about how clever it was to myself, but now i can share my emoji reactions lool | 03:01 |
| Albright | That aforementioned debate is starting soon. Listen in at https://dlive.tv/theralphretort | 03:01 |
| LjL | ubLIX, that might not be a good thing because aside from other speculations, paracetamol is *already* believe to be one of the drugs we'll have shortages of :\ | 03:01 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: I should have a new profile pic now ... | 03:01 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: the vault guy from fallout! | 03:02 |
| LjL | "New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people." ← this seems to match Netherlands data somewhat | 03:02 |
| ubLIX | LjL: you ain't wrong. i can't find paracetamol in shops anywhere | 03:02 |
| ryouma | well yeah i'd like data on that --- 18:56 <dividediff[m]> ryouma: depends on the country | 03:03 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: Fitting for this time period. Yall are missing out on the fact that xion has the vault guy as his profile pic :p | 03:03 |
| xionbox[m] | Yet another reason to use Matrix/Riot | 03:04 |
| ryouma | one source said the ibuprofen thing was a hoax (true story but spun or something). why anybody would hoax idk. | 03:04 |
| xrogaan | is there non-browser/electron clients for matrix/riot? | 03:04 |
| ryouma | i have no need for emojis. i can use ascii or unicode emojis if i really need to. 😺 | 03:05 |
| xrogaan | ryouma: well, it's not verified so we don't know. | 03:05 |
| LjL | xrogaan, yes, there is a weechat plugin for it | 03:05 |
| LjL | (for example) | 03:05 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: riot.im shows the options they have on their main page. | 03:05 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: I'm not sure what electron is | 03:05 |
| xrogaan | don't worry about it. | 03:06 |
| ryouma | xrogaan: yeah just the information uncertainty is a bit disturbing on a matter of medical knowledge (medical uncertainty is one thing; outright truth or falsity differences in reporting are another kind of thing | 03:06 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], uh, that is just... Riot. he was asking about clients other than Riot, basically. | 03:06 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: it can bbridge with a lot of things but it's more difficult than plug and play | 03:06 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: oh | 03:06 |
| LjL | xrogaan, https://matrix.org/clients | 03:06 |
| xrogaan | most of them are written in some javascript nonsense though. | 03:07 |
| LjL | the clients page used to be much more extensive though | 03:07 |
| LjL | xrogaan, well i'm pretty sure the weechat thing isn't going to be written in "some javascript nonsense" | 03:07 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: how do you know so much about matrix/riot even though you don't use them? | 03:07 |
| LjL | also it specifically mentions clients written in C++, Rust, and others | 03:07 |
| ryouma | so riot is open source? | 03:08 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], who said i don't use them? weren't you the one who asked why i have multiple accounts on this channel? did you notice two of them are actually Matrix accounts? | 03:08 |
| LjL | ryouma, yes | 03:08 |
| xrogaan | LjL: Sure, but I could use a bitlbee plugin instead. | 03:08 |
| LjL | xrogaan, https://wiki.bitlbee.org/HowtoMatrix | 03:08 |
| xrogaan | I'm woefully uninterested in matrix ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ | 03:09 |
| LjL | uh, talk about moving goalposts. | 03:09 |
| LjL | okay. | 03:09 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: til! | 03:09 |
| dividediff[m] | I've heard rumors that the reason countries said healthies shouldnt use masks is bc there weren't enough for health care staff b4 corona even reached western countries. The rumor continues that masks are beneficial for all since you don't know who is sick and who isn't | 03:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:59 UTC: Australia coronavirus live: NSW now has 307 confirmed cases, up 40 since yesterday – latest updates: Peter Dutton says he will ‘come after’ profiteering hoarders, and Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights and stand down 20,000 employees, as economic fallout from Covid-19 continues. Follow all the latest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 03:13 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: I was told that by my friend who works in health care in Colorado (she's at the organizational level, specifically dispatching equipment throughout 57 clinics) | 03:13 |
| LjL | i am pretty convinced everyone wearing surgical masks would be beneficial, IF we had enough supplies for everyone | 03:13 |
| LjL | and i feel it's pretty clear to me at this point that official advice against wearing them mostly stems from the unavailability of them | 03:14 |
| LjL | where they have been available, everyone uses them: China, Japan, Korea, you see everyone wearing masks, although they're a prized good now even there | 03:14 |
| ubLIX | seems that way | 03:14 |
| LjL | and those are coincidentally also places where the virus is somewhat under control | 03:14 |
| dividediff[m] | Canada bought like 55 million masks for sars but apparently they all expired. They should hand them out or ship them to other countries that are out! | 03:14 |
| LjL | i feel there's absolutely nothing wrong with prioritizing healthcare workers and other people at risk if there isn't enough production. however, i personally disapprove of lying about the reason why we shouldn't use them. | 03:15 |
| dividediff[m] | I assume expired masks are bettr than no mask. | 03:15 |
| dividediff[m] | Does anyone know how a mask expires? | 03:15 |
| LjL | i guess almost every material degrades with times. but i also suspect at this point, expired masks would be better than nothing | 03:16 |
| LjL | but i also suspect Canada will keep them to itself in case they are hit hard... just like every other country is now doing, except possibly China | 03:17 |
| dividediff[m] | Plan to ramp up ventilator production 'unrealistic' https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51914490 | 03:17 |
| dividediff[m] | I was very disappointed canada waited til like yester to donate 50 mill to help other countries wi corona. They should have donated it to like italy or smthg at the first sign of major trouble their | 03:18 |
| pwr22 | Cov Bot is on WhatsApp now | 03:18 |
| LjL | ew | 03:18 |
| xrogaan | LjL: did you wanted data on people's age and stuff? | 03:19 |
| xrogaan | https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html | 03:19 |
| xrogaan | in the "enhanced surveillance data" tab, there is a section about age. | 03:19 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: what is shortestpath.dev? | 03:19 |
| pwr22 | <LjL "ew"> I'd rather people on all the platforms have access to the awesomness we have on matrix and IRC | 03:19 |
| xrogaan | you can filter per continent/country. | 03:19 |
| pwr22 | <dividediff[m] "Peter Roberts: what is shortestp"> My domain | 03:19 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: you connected to this chat somehow using your own website? | 03:20 |
| pwr22 | There's a homeserver running at shortestpath.dev | 03:20 |
| pwr22 | This is probably a chat better done in #matrix:matrix.org | 03:21 |
| pagetelegram | Report from the CDC today: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6912e2-H.pdf | 03:21 |
| pwr22 | TL;DR: matrix is decentralized and federated | 03:21 |
| LjL | xrogaan, hmm, that *could* be good, but the "enhanced" data looks horribly outdated, at least for many countries | 03:22 |
| xrogaan | it is. | 03:22 |
| xrogaan | 2 days behind apparently. | 03:22 |
| xionbox[m] | "CDC COVID-19 Response Team" that's a big claim ... the CDC has done fuck all until this week | 03:22 |
| LjL | <dividediff[m]> Peter Roberts: you connected to this chat somehow using your own website? ← using his own Matrix homeserver, which is the way Matrix is envisioned: many interconnected, federated servers. pretty interesting that i know this, and you don't, even though you're telling me to just use Matrix instead of being on IRC, eh? ;) | 03:23 |
| LjL | xrogaan, look at Italy. that's definitely not 2 days ;( | 03:23 |
| xrogaan | ah ah | 03:23 |
| LjL | also France for that matter, or the UK | 03:24 |
| LjL | or Spain, really, i'm not sure anyone but Germany is reporting ;( | 03:24 |
| xrogaan | there is an email in the introduction, might worth contacting them. | 03:24 |
| LjL | Germany is like "hey guys let's all play together and have a CDC like the US? No? Okay... well, I'll start, you can join me later... no? Okay, well, I can wait..." | 03:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:17 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Hubei records no new cases for first time as WHO calls Covid-19 'enemy against humanity' — from WHO at 02:17: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 03:24 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: i don't believe i said you should use matrix/riot over irc. I prob said riot if you want reaction emojis | 03:25 |
| LjL | xrogaan, i'm pretty sure they must be aware of their main information page about the hugest outbreak in modern history is out of date | 03:25 |
| LjL | it's just going to be because of countries failing to report in the manner they expect | 03:25 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: let me know if im wrong however | 03:26 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], okay, to be fair, what you actually said was <dividediff[m]> why not just use maxtrix? | 03:26 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: Your in usa right? | 03:26 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: yes, Colorado. You? | 03:26 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: i don't know how you guys search so fast, riot lags when i search it | 03:27 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], oh it's a thing we can do when we use irc... we have logs, and we can search them very fast, if we know how. | 03:28 |
| pwr22 | I can search riot logs very fast | 03:28 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: canada. | 03:28 |
| pwr22 | It's probably because matrix.org is so overloaded | 03:28 |
| LjL | to be fair, i could only search fast because i knew it was in 2020 and this channel hasn't existed for long. you should see me searching for things that may have been said anywhere, at any time in the past ten years... | 03:29 |
| xrogaan | LjL: at the same time, european institution do *not* publicly share their data. I tried finding open data about the weather, but it's hidden behind walls of bureaucracy. | 03:29 |
| xrogaan | I just wanted to write a tool to aggregate weather info for myself, to not be reliant on US-based data (which is open). | 03:30 |
| LjL | xrogaan, yes, it's pretty awful. MeteoAlarm comes with ridiculous ToS for sharing even their dumb RSS feeds that aren't even worth much | 03:30 |
| LjL | xrogaan, US data are open by law, and that's a good thing about US law, although it does have small text | 03:30 |
| LjL | and for me to say something's good about the US, it better be good | 03:30 |
| xrogaan | Yeah, it's considered a public service. | 03:31 |
| xrogaan | Was designed that way a long time ago though, in an less crazy era. | 03:31 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: maybe i'll use irc one day for the search | 03:32 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: from what i understand, UK's plan is the 4 stage plan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak | 03:33 |
| dividediff[m] | and USA's plan is only slightly better. is that right? | 03:33 |
| LjL | xrogaan, i don't mean just weather data... *all* government data, unless it's classified (or, sadly, unless it's partly produced by commercial partners, which is an even bigger deal breaker) has to be under the public domain. so for example, the USGS has all of its earthquake modelling stuff on github. the EMSC and various European agencies are all possessive about theirs. | 03:33 |
| dividediff[m] | kungflu: thats a stellar username | 03:34 |
| xrogaan | LjL: there is this alert map: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php | 03:34 |
| xrogaan | the data has to be easily accessible in some form. | 03:34 |
| kungflu | dividediff[m]: :) | 03:34 |
| LjL | xrogaan, i'm aware, their RSS feed is posted in my channel ##alerts ;) but actually, their most parseable data, the CAP feeds, are behind a wall iirc | 03:35 |
| LjL | xrogaan, Brainstorm is primarily an earthquake warning bot, so it does tap into a lot of related sources | 03:36 |
| LjL | fresh example, just got it! | 03:36 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> 🌒 Aftershock? Earthquake? Likely moderate tremor, with 3 reports, 2 early, possibly occurred 1 minute ago (02:34:21 UTC), with a crescent moon, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America (40.75, -111.9) ± 2 km likely felt 130 km away (Twitter) | 03:36 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: that is satire, you realize that. The reality is a lot less smart. | 03:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:27 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Hubei reports no new cases for first time as WHO calls Covid-19 'enemy against humanity' — from WHO at 02:27: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 03:37 |
| LjL | WHO declares war on COVID, news at 11 | 03:37 |
| dividediff[m] | Canada: "A new Emergency Care Benefit of up to $900 biweekly" | 03:37 |
| dividediff[m] | I looked up what biweekly means, "a periodical that appears every two weeks or twice a wk" | 03:37 |
| dividediff[m] | Uhh so what do you guys think biweekly means? | 03:37 |
| kungflu | probably every 2 weeks | 03:38 |
| tinwhiskers | fortnightly | 03:38 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], it can mean both, which is unfortunate | 03:38 |
| tinwhiskers | agreed | 03:38 |
| kungflu | i doubt they'll be giving you 7200/month | 03:38 |
| kungflu | 1800/month much more likely | 03:38 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: blimey | 03:39 |
| tinwhiskers | unfortunately "fortnight" has dropped out of vogue | 03:39 |
| dividediff[m] | kungflu: blimeyt you're right | 03:39 |
| dividediff[m] | probably right** | 03:39 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: fornite video game killed fortnight | 03:40 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm | 03:40 |
| xrogaan | Trump wants to stock markets to not collapse and is a sociopath. Johnson wants to remain PM as long as possible, and is a sociopath. | 03:40 |
| tinwhiskers | I think it was dead before then | 03:40 |
| LjL | yay [m]-less bot | 03:40 |
| kungflu | less politics dumbshits | 03:41 |
| LjL | kungflu, uhm... less namecalling, fuckwit? | 03:42 |
| LjL | that's a game for at least two | 03:42 |
| kungflu | does it hurt to be that stupid? | 03:42 |
| xionbox[m] | About that CDC report, the data is shockingly vague. They only know the age of less than half of the confirmed cases (wtf?). Then, they break down the number of cases by age group, further break it down by hospitalizations, then by ICU admissions, and finally by deaths. To be honest, they currently have so little data that I'm not really sure it's a representative sample. The report was published today based on data | 03:43 |
| xionbox[m] | from 16 March, at like half-day. The official number of cases on March 16 in the US is higher than what they say in the CDC report | 03:43 |
| pagetelegram | I agree we need real time data from CDC/ they should hire some programmers to use the JHU apis and augment it in their reports. | 03:45 |
| derpadmin | from their website, I gather they are not keeping track of all cases and that is done by states | 03:46 |
| xrogaan | the US CDC? | 03:46 |
| derpadmin | if my understanding is correct | 03:46 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: cover up or incompetence? | 03:46 |
| derpadmin | yes, the US CDC | 03:46 |
| pagetelegram | Yes | 03:46 |
| xrogaan | Didn't they get their funding cut 2 years ago? | 03:46 |
| yuriwho | here’s an article describing the JHU data that is publically accessible. I’d love to see a City Lvl GIS map for my country (Canada). The data is all there: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30120-1/fulltext] | 03:46 |
| yuriwho | %T | 03:46 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: neither, I think they were just rushed to publish something, anything | 03:46 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: i thought only us has a cdc | 03:47 |
| xrogaan | I don't believe it is incompetence, rather a lack of resources. | 03:47 |
| pagetelegram | I know that the epdemic response team was cut from CDC under this administration. I beg he reconsider. | 03:47 |
| xrogaan | Nah, there are CDC all over the world. | 03:47 |
| xionbox[m] | xrogaan: yes, the new WH administration slashed their budget and, actually disbanded entirely the pandemic response team (oh, the irony) | 03:47 |
| derpadmin | federal numbers in canada are slow to update (like every 24 hours) but they are there | 03:47 |
| derpadmin | I don't the CDC does something similar | 03:47 |
| xrogaan | (not always called CDC, because CDC is an english name) | 03:48 |
| yuriwho | derpadmin:I’d like to see a map with region & city lvl data | 03:48 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: Doesn't that mean incompetence then :p | 03:48 |
| pagetelegram | I've faxed a lot of recommendations to the white house in the past; I do not think I need to fax congress about re-establishing the response team...that is very obvious thing to do. Yet no bleep in congress on CSPAN | 03:48 |
| xionbox[m] | Slightly haha | 03:49 |
| pagetelegram | *white house I mean Congress. | 03:49 |
| derpadmin | yuriwho : I don't have the grnularity of the data your asking from official sources | 03:49 |
| derpadmin | *granularity | 03:49 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: i heard they got funding cut too | 03:49 |
| xrogaan | I'm very cynical about the current WH administration. I can't expect anything good from Mike "pray disease away" Pence. | 03:50 |
| pagetelegram | I am considering firing up my fax modem, asaik the House is not in session as of today. Anything we need to fax congress on what points I am eyes right now. I have a simple fax script I can provide to anyone interested. I also have a script that batches a google python script to scrape net of fax numbers from a csv file. | 03:51 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: I mean i thought only US's cdc has that acronym. Like in canada we have... uhh something that isn't called cdc | 03:52 |
| xrogaan | LjL: So, only for Belgium we have half a dozen of organism needed in order to put this website up: https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/ | 03:52 |
| LjL | i am not sure we can condone of, uhm, fax-spamming? | 03:52 |
| xrogaan | Different teams, they need to coordinate in order to aggregate and publish informations. Imagine that at the scale of Europe. | 03:52 |
| LjL | xrogaan, well that's something, our organisms haven't agreed yet to have *one* coronavirus website, so there's like four, although each of them link to every other | 03:53 |
| xrogaan | And Belgium is super small. | 03:53 |
| pagetelegram | It is not spamming if it s to congress. their fax numbers are public and as long as it is public interest I do not see how it is spamming. Black faxing yes. not recommended | 03:53 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: fax spamming? | 03:53 |
| xionbox[m] | pagetelegram: does faxing work better than email or calling? I've tried both several times and have never ever received a response | 03:53 |
| xionbox[m] | And what's black faxing? | 03:53 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: Center for Disease Control. | 03:53 |
| xrogaan | it's pretty universal. | 03:53 |
| yuriwho | you need to donate big $$, then they will answer the phone | 03:53 |
| dividediff[m] | Sorry, my msgs aren't going through properly and they're getting desync or something | 03:54 |
| LjL | "1. Avoid shaking hands, kissing or cuddling the persons you meet" ← damn i just cuddled some randomer on the subway today, am i done? :\ | 03:54 |
| pagetelegram | I never get a personal response. I started with this admin with the NK scare and explained to congress the dynamic of the military industrial complex. a week later he's friends with the dictator. Lot of exampels of this in seeing in the administration my recommendations. | 03:54 |
| dividediff[m] | (Thats why i'm removing them bc they're arriving out of place) | 03:54 |
| twomoon | hi xionbox[m] was that pandemic response team really important or was it more like just a bullshit group that wasn't necessary? i mean wasn't the CDC already handling that ? | 03:55 |
| pagetelegram | Two things I faxed that I did not see repsonse was on using technological examples from India's contract with Russia concering their wall and to learn from that example and on food health in this nation past 60 years. | 03:55 |
| twomoon | ljl you didn't actually cuddle some random person did you | 03:56 |
| xionbox[m] | twomoon: I frankly have no idea | 03:56 |
| dividediff[m] | pagetelegram: can they block faxs? | 03:56 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: what's the pandemix response team? | 03:56 |
| pagetelegram | Actually I wonder if the establishment of FEMA replaces some of the CDC response team capacities | 03:56 |
| pagetelegram | Yes faxes can be blocked. I get verification reports in the logs | 03:57 |
| pagetelegram | efax and efix command to mend a header. | 03:57 |
| pagetelegram | I don't have any blocks. If it does not go through bc it is usually busy or offline fax. | 03:57 |
| xrogaan | LjL: https://files.catbox.moe/8mardw.png | 03:58 |
| xionbox[m] | (oops sorry for the disconnect) | 03:58 |
| LjL | xrogaan, i wonder if japanese could just write everything in fake-english-katakana since that's basically what it does a lot of the time anyway | 03:58 |
| pagetelegram | it is actually part of my business to fax congress on behalf of concerned parties....and also FOIA requests and I've done a few FOIPAs too | 03:59 |
| pagetelegram | pagetelegram.com | 03:59 |
| dividediff[m] | pagetelegram: so they'll nvr block you then ha | 03:59 |
| pagetelegram | As long as we play cordial :P | 04:00 |
| xionbox[m] | twomoon, dividediff it seems from this Snopes article (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/) that funding was indeed reduced by 80%. It seems like the team was designed to help other countries deal with potential epidemics (I guess to avoid those from becoming pandemics). Then there's a quote which is odd: "And as the CDC told FactCheck.org, the cuts were ultimately avoided because Congress | 04:00 |
| xionbox[m] | provided other funding." So Snopes says that the funding was indeed gutted under the oversight of the new WH (claim is marked as "true"), but then I guess the funding still made its way to the CDC? I don't understand | 04:00 |
| pagetelegram | xionbox: black faxing is sending black pages to fax machines using up all their toner/ink | 04:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 02:55 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: China reports 34 new cases but none in epicenter Hubei: China's National Health Commission said there were 34 new cases, which it attributed to travelers returning from abroad. — from WHO at 02:55: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Z5Exkx | 04:01 |
| pagetelegram | that will get you blocked and reported to FCC | 04:01 |
| xionbox[m] | Oh, interesting | 04:01 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: i don't understand either | 04:02 |
| pagetelegram | Anyone have information or legistlation on the current boundaries of the Stafford Act? This is only document that I found: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11229 | 04:05 |
| pagetelegram | * Stafford Act as it is today to address this I mean | 04:06 |
| dividediff[m] | bolivia is doing great, 12 cases but they still closed the boarder anyway | 04:10 |
| dividediff[m] | How do you guys think central+south america are gonna do in the coming storm? | 04:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Hubei reports no new cases for first time as WHO calls Covid-19 'enemy against humanity' — from WHO at 03:05: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 04:13 |
| yuriwho | here’s a preprint analyzing medical outcomes from 882 children 16 and under tested (~9% +ve) in China: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036319v1 | 04:13 |
| dividediff[m] | italian death toll nearly as much as china's | 04:15 |
| xionbox[m] | Damn | 04:15 |
| twomoon | my god | 04:15 |
| dividediff[m] | china 3245 | 04:17 |
| dividediff[m] | italy 2978 | 04:17 |
| dividediff[m] | cases / 1 mill pop: | 04:17 |
| dividediff[m] | china 56 | 04:17 |
| dividediff[m] | italy 591 | 04:17 |
| dividediff[m] | around 0.06% of italian have contracted corona | 04:21 |
| LjL | yuriwho, that paper kinda confuses me. claims children are overlooked because of the symptoms being mild, but in the end, some 10% of the positives were critical anyway. none died, which is... well, consistent with what we already knew, although it's strange that if 5-10% of the children who test positive actually need ICU, we end up with no deaths. i mean, good for them, but slightly confusing. | 04:22 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], have a look at Lombardy, that's going to be a much more fun data point. | 04:22 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: what tool shows just lombardy? | 04:22 |
| LjL | %cases Lombardia | 04:22 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Lombardia, Italy, there are 17713 cases, 1959 deaths (11.1% of cases), 3488 recoveries as of March 18, 16:00Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardia for time series data. | 04:22 |
| LjL | you may be familiar with this bot from... this channel, also, offloop.net from the same source | 04:22 |
| LjL | %wa population of Lombardy | 04:23 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Lombardy, Italy | population): Result: 10.02 million people (17% of total for Italy) (Friday, June 30, 2017) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+of+Lombardy | 04:23 |
| LjL | i'll let you do the math | 04:23 |
| yuriwho | LjL: kids get sick too, but they can be saved | 04:23 |
| LjL | yuriwho, doesn't ICU mean they can be saved... barely, though? | 04:24 |
| yuriwho | yes, some will have lung scarring... implications unknown | 04:24 |
| LjL | i suspect life expectancy is going to be somewhat lower for most people in the near and medium term future. | 04:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:20 UTC: Australia coronavirus live: NSW now has 307 confirmed cases, up 40 since yesterday – latest updates: Peter Dutton says he will ‘come after’ profiteering hoarders, and Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights and stand down 20,000 employees, as economic fallout from Covid-19 continues. Follow all the latest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 04:25 |
| LjL | (that's obviously an understatement) | 04:25 |
| twomoon | oh god Lombardia breached the 10% barrier | 04:26 |
| twomoon | i did not see that coming | 04:26 |
| yuriwho | this pandemic is far worse than most people think | 04:26 |
| twomoon | it seems like still business as usual here in san diego | 04:26 |
| twomoon | i see people out walking around, biking, laughing, hiking | 04:27 |
| twomoon | talking to each other not wearing masks etc | 04:27 |
| dividediff[m] | The bot doesn't work for me but i found 0.1% of lombardies | 04:27 |
| dividediff[m] | have contracted | 04:27 |
| LjL | there is only one lombardy. you probably mean lombards | 04:27 |
| dividediff[m] | yea | 04:28 |
| LjL | twomoon, if it weren't for the lockdowns and stuff, it would be "business as usual" in milan, too. until the circle starts closing and the ones around you all get sick. | 04:28 |
| LjL | then the circle closes before you can be like "wait a mi-" | 04:28 |
| dividediff[m] | twomoon: 10% barrier? | 04:28 |
| LjL | that is what i see in my future anyway | 04:28 |
| derpadmin | twomoon : I am a bit upset at my friends having a friendly dinner tonight and making fun of me for being scare to catch it (I am more socially responsible than scared) | 04:29 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: i think you mean: "wait a milan" | 04:29 |
| LjL | ... | 04:29 |
| dividediff[m] | to #coronavirus-vox ! | 04:30 |
| twomoon | the circle closing around you analogy is freaky man | 04:30 |
| twomoon | you should write a stephen king novel | 04:30 |
| twomoon | market yourself as the italian steven king | 04:31 |
| dividediff[m] | yuriwho: i think all of us in this room at least realize this thing is badd | 04:31 |
| twomoon | where do u live derpadmin | 04:31 |
| derpadmin | canada, so far so good | 04:32 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], if i had realized how bad it was weeks ago (and i was thinking it was worse than most people around me thought), i'd have acted differently, so there is that | 04:32 |
| derpadmin | Canada: %infected:0.00164538 %maybe_infected:0.00009273 %not_infected:99.99835462 | 04:32 |
| derpadmin | 2 days ago we were at the same percentage than the US | 04:32 |
| derpadmin | United States: %infected:0.00243623 %not_infected:99.99756377 | 04:33 |
| derpadmin | now, us rose | 04:33 |
| dividediff[m] | derpadmin: me too! | 04:33 |
| derpadmin | dividediff[m] : province? | 04:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 03:26 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: China reports 34 new cases but none in epicenter Hubei: China's National Health Commission said there were 34 new cases, which it attributed to travelers returning from abroad. — from WHO at 03:26: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Z5Exkx | 04:37 |
| IronY | derpadmin: Going through backlog | 04:39 |
| IronY | canada numbers update at like 10:30 est and 4:30 est | 04:39 |
| derpadmin | IronY : thanks for the info | 04:40 |
| dividediff[m] | whats up with their being 2 updates a day? Worldometer doesn't combine them and it looks like we have small increases per day | 04:40 |
| IronY | I do not really overly trust world meter because I have no idea where world meter is getting their info | 04:41 |
| IronY | that and the 1000 embedded advertisements | 04:41 |
| IronY | For canada your best bet is to follow ctv news or cbs news, they also release case details | 04:42 |
| IronY | for example, 1 infected in ottawa today, (more then likely the NHL Player although they wont confirm) | 04:42 |
| IronY | (20 year old with travel from the states is what is listed, which is a safe assumption it is the NHL player) | 04:42 |
| tinwhiskers | IronY: they actually list the source for all their information. If you take the time to check out the sources you'll find even more reason not to trust them. However, they end up being not far from correct. They do sometimes double-count though. | 04:46 |
| rajrajraj | IronY and tinwhiskers hi | 04:46 |
| pwr22 | St Patrick's Day revellers ignore coronavirus calls to avoid pubs in Bristol - Bristol Live https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/whats-on/st-patricks-day-revellers-ignore-3960739 | 04:47 |
| pwr22 | 🤦♂️ | 04:47 |
| rajrajraj | pwr22: r u 22 | 04:48 |
| IronY | tinwhiskers: JHO is about 30 mins delayed from my govs numbers | 04:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 03:46 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Jeffrey Goldberg su Twitter: "The potential consequences here are huge: @TheAtlantic is reporting that an Amazon worker in Queens has tested positive for coronavirus: https://t.co/O7IDh2kFc0" — from WHO at 03:46: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/pZBMPZ | 04:49 |
| IronY | (has been plotting it for a few days now) | 04:49 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. ok | 04:49 |
| twomoon | omg i hope amazon doesn't have to shut down | 04:49 |
| tinwhiskers | they are not that current for many places | 04:49 |
| IronY | twomoon: there have already been 2 in washington state | 04:50 |
| rajrajraj | twomoon: they won't | 04:50 |
| IronY | when u get a package, remove it from the cardboard, throw the cardboard out | 04:50 |
| IronY | if it has outer packaging on the product, eject that aswell | 04:50 |
| IronY | disinfect said products, then wash ur hands | 04:50 |
| IronY | assume anything in the mail is infected (not because it necessarily is, it is just a good precaution) | 04:51 |
| twomoon | i just hope the mail systems don't shut down | 04:51 |
| twomoon | and of course amazon | 04:51 |
| euod[m] | you can expect it. | 04:54 |
| euod[m] | canada post is already not delivering items that require signature at all. | 04:54 |
| twomoon | omg | 04:54 |
| twomoon | that would be very bad for some people | 04:54 |
| twomoon | a lot of medications arrive by mail now | 04:55 |
| euod[m] | well it means you can't get weed by mail. | 04:55 |
| david594 | I think it was fedex who annouced it today they would no longer be requiring signatures | 04:55 |
| euod[m] | but yes, that puts a lot of restrictions on people. you can go pick up canada post things at a store, but who wants to do that. | 04:55 |
| rajrajraj | euod[m]: david594 twomoon hi | 04:55 |
| twomoon | hi | 04:55 |
| IronY | euod[m]: umm | 04:56 |
| IronY | euod[m]: incorrect | 04:56 |
| IronY | "To help minimize points of close contact in our communities, we will no longer be requesting signatures for any deliveries to the door. This will eliminate the need for scanners and stylus pens to be passed back and forth during the delivery process of these items." | 04:56 |
| IronY | https://www.canadapost.ca/cpc/en/our-company/news-and-media/corporate-news/closures-and-service-interruptions-details.page?article=2020/03/15/public_update_covid_&cattype=announcements&cat=updates | 04:56 |
| IronY | there just not requiring signatures | 04:56 |
| IronY | and I can confirm that, since I had a package requiring signature today dropped off with a door nock only | 04:57 |
| euod[m] | IronY: huh, there was an incorrect news article about that then. | 04:57 |
| IronY | euod[m]: I have no doubt that was the case | 04:57 |
| IronY | rest assured mail is still good in Canada :D | 04:57 |
| euod[m] | "To receive the following items only: Registered, Xpresspost Certified, Proof of Identity, Proof of Age, COD (collect on delivery) and items where custom fees are due, please know that we cannot release these items unless a signature is provided." | 04:57 |
| euod[m] | IronY: not totally incorrect. | 04:57 |
| euod[m] | "You will receive a notice card indicating the post office where you can pick up your items by showing proof of identity and signing. If you are sick or under self-isolation, please arrange for someone to pick up these items in your place." | 04:58 |
| IronY | euod[m]: wanna read the rest of that paragraph | 04:58 |
| IronY | there u go :P | 04:58 |
| euod[m] | so weed by mail is still disrupted. | 04:58 |
| yuriwho | IronY: you mean community mailboxes | 04:58 |
| IronY | yuriwho: I do? | 04:59 |
| yuriwho | well, thats my contact point with Canada post | 04:59 |
| IronY | ohhh | 04:59 |
| IronY | fair enough | 04:59 |
| IronY | I have it good :/ | 04:59 |
| HeXiLeD | given that a lot of people are still going out side to have parties and all (miami spring breakers is one example), i dont think that even one month shutdown will solve this problem | 04:59 |
| euod[m] | heh | 04:59 |
| IronY | yuriwho: I get to the door, and my pickup location should I need it is like 1 mins away | 04:59 |
| euod[m] | you know the "one month" or "two weeks" bit is to placate people right? | 05:00 |
| IronY | euod[m]: btw, do you live in a larger canadian city | 05:00 |
| euod[m] | yes. | 05:00 |
| IronY | euod[m]: you do not need to order weed online from OCS, and check out the weedmap app | 05:00 |
| IronY | I orderd weed through an app at 2:30 am last saturday | 05:00 |
| IronY | it was cheaper and better then ocs lol | 05:00 |
| IronY | probably not the legalst thing, but illegality is on their end | 05:00 |
| euod[m] | IronY: oh I know. it's got much better now that OCS is out of the picture. | 05:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 03:53 UTC: /u/slakmehl: "and the entire State legislature is now self-isolating" — from WHO at 03:53: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/GMQkgm | 05:01 |
| IronY | euod[m]: The only thing I can tell you for sure, in canada, the one thing I am not worried about is running out of weed lol | 05:01 |
| yuriwho | or toilet paper | 05:01 |
| IronY | yuriwho: Should do a run on rolling papers | 05:01 |
| yuriwho | had not thought of that | 05:01 |
| IronY | the year was 2021, a pre roll joint cost 100 dollars,10 dollars for the weed, 90 dollars for the rolling papers, | 05:02 |
| twomoon | lol | 05:02 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 05:03 |
| euod[m] | more on topically, I was interested to see that Fingolimod is a candidate for treatment. | 05:03 |
| euod[m] | https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280588 | 05:03 |
| IronY | Last time I got a legit registered letter (not sign but legally registered) was when a Union took 80 dollars from me for miscalculation | 05:03 |
| euod[m] | once people get to the point of their lungs filling with white blood cells, pump them full of an immunosupressing drug. | 05:04 |
| euod[m] | not a nice drug at all though. | 05:05 |
| twomoon | or a sclerosing agent | 05:05 |
| euod[m] | headaches, diarrhea, nausea, abdominal pain, macular edema. | 05:05 |
| yuriwho | interesting... I guess Fingolimod modulate prostaglandins | 05:05 |
| yuriwho | I need to read up on that one | 05:06 |
| euod[m] | I'll be interested to see how that one works out. | 05:06 |
| euod[m] | it's cheap, if no other reason for using it. | 05:07 |
| yuriwho | it appears to modulate white blood cell migration | 05:07 |
| yuriwho | stopping inflammation | 05:08 |
| yuriwho | looks like it’s probably for use in severe cases | 05:08 |
| euod[m] | which a lot of the cases today are. | 05:09 |
| euod[m] | a rather absurd portion of people are going to need hospitalization. | 05:09 |
| euod[m] | the pertinent word there being "need". | 05:09 |
| euod[m] | https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/amazon-warehouse-employee-has-coronavirus/608341/ | 05:12 |
| euod[m] | so, yeah, amazon is going to be disrupted. | 05:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:03 UTC: Australia coronavirus live: Reserve Bank cuts interest rates to record low of 0.25% – latest updates: NSW now has 307 confirmed cases, up 40 since yesterday, Peter Dutton says he will ‘come after’ profiteering hoarders, and Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights and stand down 20,000 employees, as [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 05:13 |
| twomoon | amazon cannot go down | 05:14 |
| twomoon | all hell will break loose | 05:14 |
| twomoon | so many ppl have become dependent on ordering groceries from them already | 05:14 |
| twomoon | the ppl that used to deliver groceries to my aunt were put out of business by amazon | 05:15 |
| rajrajraj | twomoon: heaven too | 05:15 |
| twomoon | now she depends on amazon | 05:15 |
| twomoon | if amazon goes everyone will suffer | 05:15 |
| dunnp | dont panic twomoon | 05:16 |
| dunnp | no reason why amazon would go down | 05:16 |
| euod[m] | I mean. | 05:17 |
| euod[m] | they're already obviously struggling to keep up with demand given their current workforce, which is clearly set to be reduced. | 05:17 |
| dunnp | how are they clearly struggling? | 05:18 |
| rajrajraj | Clearly | 05:18 |
| BruntLIVE | You think it's over? CORONAVIRUS never sleeps, she needs your eyes, nose and mouth to live. Will you let her in? | 05:18 |
| euod[m] | https://sellercentral.amazon.com/gp/help/external/help.html?itemID=GF37V7QBB8WSVF43&tag=bisafetynet2-20& | 05:18 |
| euod[m] | they already deny any "non essential" items coming into their warehouse. | 05:19 |
| xionbox[m] | Important to note that the US announced its first case the same day that South Korea did. But South Korea contained the situation extremely well, whereas the US fucked up completely. It's a systematic failure of the government, the FDA and the CDC | 05:21 |
| xionbox[m] | https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2153BW | 05:21 |
| euod[m] | the US and Canada should have closed their borders literally a month ago. | 05:22 |
| euod[m] | everybody was too chicken to admit it might have economic impact. | 05:22 |
| BruntLIVE | Canada is white, they dont carry viruses unlike those shifty brown people down south. | 05:23 |
| BruntLIVE | God is teaching us | 05:23 |
| BruntLIVE | slowly | 05:23 |
| HeXiLeD | lol | 05:23 |
| BruntLIVE | We think we are so bad | 05:23 |
| HeXiLeD | euod[m]: agreed | 05:23 |
| david594 | xionbox[m] you need to get your facts straight. I listen to Trump every day. And the US had no issues until today when we suddenly found out the US had the Corona Pandemic all along! | 05:23 |
| BruntLIVE | got us locked at home | 05:23 |
| BruntLIVE | lol | 05:23 |
| euod[m] | the US is such a shitty place the president announced a "day of prayer" to combat a pandemic. | 05:24 |
| xionbox[m] | Haha my mistake! | 05:24 |
| HeXiLeD | trump downplayed it just like Bolsonaro in brazil | 05:24 |
| tinwhiskers | %cases fiji | 05:24 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas, Fiji, there are 1 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 04:09Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Fiji for time series data. | 05:24 |
| david594 | Prayer is how Pence cured HIV | 05:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:18 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: China reports 34 new cases but none in epicenter Hubei: China's National Health Commission said there were 34 new cases, which it attributed to travelers returning from abroad. — from WHO at 04:18: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Z5Exkx | 05:25 |
| dunnp | euod[m]: this just says that they are priotizing household staples in their fulfillment centers.. | 05:25 |
| dunnp | probably because of all the people price gouging | 05:25 |
| dunnp | my shipments still come normally | 05:25 |
| euod[m] | <dunnp "euod: this just says that they a"> yes? that means they're struggling to deal with the load. there's no other way of reading that. | 05:25 |
| dunnp | for fulfillment centers | 05:25 |
| dunnp | thats for people selling stuff on amazon | 05:26 |
| dividediff[m] | Has anyone figured out how his numbers work? | 05:26 |
| dividediff[m] | https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca | 05:26 |
| rajrajraj | dividediff[m]: i tell you all about it when I see you again | 05:28 |
| dividediff[m] | "That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6))" | 05:28 |
| dividediff[m] | Why 8? Running that math it's 7 | 05:28 |
| dividediff[m] | "Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today" | 05:30 |
| dividediff[m] | Now sure how he got that numbe reither | 05:30 |
| dunnp | honestly not sure why you'd care what some guy with a blog thinks when there are epidmioloigcal models being published now... | 05:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 04:32 UTC: /u/mmm_toasty: COVID-19 cases being reported in every US state. 7000 new confirmed cases in the past week. — from WHO at 04:32: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/ok847D | 05:37 |
| X-Scale | https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/0232245/what-happens-if-the-us-does-absolutely-nothing-to-combat-covid-19 | 05:38 |
| euod[m] | that's dire. | 05:42 |
| X-Scale | the report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf | 05:42 |
| euod[m] | it almost certainly leads to a baby boom too, a little horribly. | 05:42 |
| HeXiLeD | https://youtu.be/uT3RvQ426zA | 05:43 |
| tinwhiskers | It should be noted that the "USA does nothing" scenario is the worst-case and not the reality, since they are doing some management of the disease. | 05:45 |
| euod[m] | I'm not really convinced that matters much. | 05:45 |
| pagetelegram | https://hand.is/corona/2020-03-18_shelter_in_place_order.pdf ....near Chicago, Oak Park Illinois is now ordered "Shelter" ... the PDF off my server bc the Oak Park website cannot take the load it is getting these last five hours. | 05:45 |
| euod[m] | the practical limitations of what they can do are very, very low. | 05:45 |
| tinwhiskers | it's always good to model the worst-case scenario but don't expect reality to be quite that bad. | 05:46 |
| dividediff[m] | dunnp: any easy to use epidemiological models that are easy nuff for me to use? | 05:46 |
| pagetelegram | Illinois may go into "Shelter Order" tomorrow | 05:46 |
| pagetelegram | Gov considers tonight; tomorrow most likely. | 05:46 |
| tinwhiskers | unfortunately without seeing the more moderate forecasts we don't get a feel for how much the management is likely to reduce the deaths. | 05:47 |
| dunnp | dividediff[m]: the imperial college model | 05:47 |
| dunnp | linked above | 05:47 |
| dividediff[m] | dunnp: Do i have to read all 20 pgs? | 05:48 |
| pagetelegram | Google Home is playing music from Spamolot and Gilliam,, I did not ask for their take on "Alway look on the bright side of life." I just asked "play music!" | 05:48 |
| tinwhiskers | euod[m]: social distancing "flattens the curve" meaning that instead of all severe cases dying more will be saved | 05:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 04:47 UTC: /u/EggCouncilCreeper: Guard working at Brisbane hotel housing refugees and asylum seekers tests positive for COVID-19 | SBS News — from WHO at 04:47: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/aLLowg | 05:49 |
| tinwhiskers | the more you can slow the disease the more lives you save, and any management helps to some extent | 05:49 |
| dividediff[m] | i've been considering requesting my local stations play that 'let the bodies hit the floor ' song to try to raise a lil more awareness | 05:49 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 05:50 |
| pagetelegram | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep9Vzb6R_58 | 05:51 |
| tinwhiskers | %title | 05:51 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: From www.youtube.com: Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life - HD 1080p - Monty Python Life of Brian - YouTube | 05:51 |
| tinwhiskers | :-) | 05:51 |
| dividediff[m] | Random media articles smtm say italy was hit bad due to have lots of elderly. Japan has more elderly and did much bettr | 05:55 |
| tinwhiskers | Italians do far more kissing than Japanese? | 05:56 |
| euod[m] | you have to wonder what's going to happen in africa. | 05:56 |
| rajrajraj | euod[m]: Netflix and chill | 05:56 |
| euod[m] | <tinwhiskers "Italians do far more kissing tha"> japan is already super into single use things, over packaging, and not coming into contact with people. | 05:56 |
| rajrajraj | They dark they won't suffer | 05:56 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: if only it were social distancing | 05:57 |
| euod[m] | rajrajraj: I'm fine. last contact I had with anybody was flipping off someone 2 weeks ago. | 05:58 |
| tinwhiskers | euod[m]: I think there's nothing to the rumours of the coronavirus doing poorly in hot climates. Africa will see something close to the worst-case scenario. | 05:58 |
| euod[m] | THE HOA AGREED YOU WOULDN'T PARK HERE | 05:58 |
| euod[m] | yeah swivel on it, bitch. there's one place to load a truck. | 05:58 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: madagascar has closed it's cruise ports already with 0 cases so it's they're off to a good start | 05:59 |
| euod[m] | <dividediff[m] "euod: madagascar has closed it's"> so is greenland. | 05:59 |
| euod[m] | 1 case. total. | 05:59 |
| tinwhiskers | So is New Zealand. 18 cases but all incoming travellers and no sign of community spread *yet*. | 06:00 |
| yuriwho | Greenland is probably the safest place to be | 06:00 |
| tinwhiskers | err. 28 cases | 06:00 |
| euod[m] | yeah lets all travel to greenland where it's safe! | 06:00 |
| ryouma | what specifically can a pulse oximeter do for you for covid-19? can you pretty much say, if o2sat is below a number, then you should get ready to go to hospital or be insistent to doctor? also, can you use it to calibrate a cannula-delivered oxygen flow? | 06:00 |
| yuriwho | but it’s not very green | 06:00 |
| dividediff[m] | i would think that countries with low population densities would be more okay cause it's more like social distancing | 06:00 |
| tinwhiskers | We also have no cases here in Tonga :-) | 06:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:55 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Hubei reports no new cases for first time as WHO calls Covid-19 'enemy against humanity' — from WHO at 04:55: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 06:00 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: there's 5 people on the island I live on. Does that count as social distancing? | 06:01 |
| yuriwho | heh | 06:01 |
| ryouma | depends on island size | 06:01 |
| tinwhiskers | 25 acres | 06:01 |
| yuriwho | depends on the 5 | 06:01 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: i had to look up tonga, are u actually from there | 06:01 |
| dividediff[m] | ? | 06:01 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: don't shake their hands!!! | 06:01 |
| tinwhiskers | I live in Tonga but not *from* here | 06:02 |
| xionbox[m] | tinwhiskers: is there more room? And how reliable is the internet there? | 06:02 |
| ryouma | do you have an inernet cable going to the island? | 06:02 |
| tinwhiskers | the internet is a bit sucky | 06:02 |
| euod[m] | tinder on an island with 5 people must be very limited. | 06:02 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 06:02 |
| tinwhiskers | There's a 3G tower on a nearby island | 06:02 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: r u just there to avoid covid? | 06:03 |
| euod[m] | ah water, the perfect ground plane, ironically. | 06:03 |
| xionbox[m] | Ah dang, it's in Tonga so not US soil, shite... I can't work remotely from there by law :-( | 06:03 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: no, just living here anyway. Our country (NZ) is telling everyone to go home, but I think we've decided to weather the storm here | 06:03 |
| orgg | %data hong kong | 06:03 |
| Brainstorm | orgg: In all areas, Hong Kong, there are 193 cases, 4 deaths (2.1% of cases), 95 recoveries as of March 19, 04:37Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Hong%20Kong for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 4.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 06:03 |
| yuriwho | for seeing the pandemic, tinwhiskers settles down on an isolated island for a decade before he was vindicated | 06:04 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 06:04 |
| ryouma | i find that don't flatten the curve stop it article to be meaningful. does anybody else? tkae a look at the modified chart shown in it. | 06:04 |
| orgg | %data chicago | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | orgg: Sorry, chicago not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 06:05 |
| orgg | %data chicago il | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | orgg: Sorry, chicago il not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 06:05 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: so after the corona passes, the west might need help rebuilding, you and your 5 will come out unscathed, so we're counting on the 5 of you! | 06:05 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: if you stop it then it'll likely just outbreak again anyway | 06:05 |
| orgg | %data Chicago, IL | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | orgg: Sorry, Chicago, IL not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 06:05 |
| orgg | heh | 06:05 |
| orgg | oh well | 06:05 |
| xrogaan | %data US | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | xrogaan: In all areas, US, there are 9464 cases, 155 deaths (1.6% of cases), 108 recoveries as of March 19, 05:04Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 06:05 |
| orgg | sorry for the spam | 06:05 |
| ryouma | tonga is that place where ther was an island just under water nearby right? | 06:05 |
| orgg | Yeah, was looking for a quick breakdown in IL cases - but I didn't want to move my mouse. I can do that | 06:05 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: I don't know about that | 06:06 |
| ryouma | i mean there are a bunch of such places probably but that one was taken over bu a guy who put sand there | 06:06 |
| tinwhiskers | I didn't hear about that one | 06:06 |
| xrogaan | orgg: there is a Kane, IL | 06:06 |
| ryouma | and then the king or whoever sent out some canoes and said hist territoriy was being violated | 06:06 |
| ryouma | and the sand washed away like ozymandias | 06:06 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm | 06:06 |
| tinwhiskers | maybe. I dunno | 06:06 |
| xrogaan | %data Illinois | 06:07 |
| Brainstorm | xrogaan: In Illinois, US, there are 290 cases, 1 deaths (0.3% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 02:35Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 06:07 |
| ryouma | 1970s or so | 06:07 |
| ryouma | they had a party on the island declared a new nation | 06:08 |
| ryouma | or something | 06:08 |
| tinwhiskers | there is a sand island near here that only emerges at low tide. It's right out in the middle of the ocean and is pretty awe inspiring to stand on. | 06:08 |
| ryouma | for don't flatten teh curve i am referring to this: https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 | 06:09 |
| ryouma | tinwhiskers: maybe that one dunno | 06:09 |
| orgg | Just odd that Illinois has more cases than hong kong. | 06:10 |
| dividediff[m] | Do we think china is reporting it's new cases accurately? | 06:11 |
| twomoon | are polyclonal antibodies better than monoclonal? | 06:11 |
| dunnp | no | 06:12 |
| dunnp | opposite | 06:12 |
| kreyren | Czech republic developed a a new method to test covid-19 which is simpler and cheaper compared to CDC test, apparently now adapted in US, switzerland and new zeland apparently instead of using three reactions to get the result (CDC tests) you can use only one https://youtu.be/gG7oEmuVrH0?t=105 , accuracy is so far unknown | 06:12 |
| dividediff[m] | dunnp: answering twomoon or me? | 06:12 |
| dunnp | ah twomoon | 06:12 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: they are. | 06:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 05:02 UTC: /u/EggCouncilCreeper: LIVE NOW: Australian Prime Minister holding press conference on toughened travel bans — from WHO at 05:02: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Uksc3q | 06:12 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: interesting | 06:12 |
| twomoon | why do they say you get polyclonal antibodies if you get serum from another person? | 06:12 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: existing data should be time 10 or 20 though. | 06:13 |
| twomoon | shouldn't it be monoclonal? | 06:13 |
| dunnp | twomoon: it is describing the antibodies themselves | 06:13 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: how could they have so few caaes outside of hubei? | 06:13 |
| dunnp | more than one or a single one | 06:13 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: because they were very agressive in containing the pathogen. | 06:13 |
| twomoon | i'm lost | 06:13 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: of course at worst you only need to draw out the curve until vaccines are available so the 3000 days is not such a problem | 06:13 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: and also not everybody show symptoms. | 06:13 |
| ryouma | tinwhiskers: the chart he shows with an enormous curve and a low line is really really disturbing | 06:14 |
| tinwhiskers | it is | 06:14 |
| xionbox[m] | <kreyren "Czech republic developed a a new"> What is she saying? Is there a transcript somewhere (could pass that through Google Translate) | 06:14 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: it soome doesn't spread back into china from like iran or some other hot spot? | 06:14 |
| kreyren | xionbox[m], found https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fjixx2/czech_private_diagnostic_laboratory_with_head/ | 06:14 |
| ryouma | tinwhiskers: and think of uk policy and us non-policy policy | 06:14 |
| dunnp | twomoon: B cells secrete antibodies - if there are different versions of the b cells with different antibodies, that is polyclonal | 06:14 |
| xionbox[m] | kreyren: thanks | 06:15 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: yes, it's apparently what is happening. But they can't lift the confinement as the epidemic would simply restart. | 06:15 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: i thought the confinement in only hubei? | 06:15 |
| twomoon | so polyclonal just means having more than one B cell variant | 06:16 |
| xrogaan | huh, no, multiple cities are confined. | 06:16 |
| ryouma | what is the probability of a 4mo or so lockdown in the us? | 06:16 |
| ryouma | (or in anyplace in the us) | 06:16 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: maybe i'm confused, but i thought hubei is the province | 06:16 |
| dunnp | more than one antibody variant - it recognizes different epitopes or the same epitope differently | 06:16 |
| xrogaan | Hubei is the province yes, Wuhan is the city being confined. | 06:17 |
| dunnp | polyclonal has a higher chance of cross reactivity and batch to batch variability | 06:17 |
| dunnp | monoclonal is more reliable | 06:17 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: anywhere they found a case got quarantined. | 06:17 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: city, village, you name it. | 06:18 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: say for something like hong kong, why has it Not run rampant there? | 06:18 |
| xrogaan | Including their capital: Beijing. | 06:18 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: afaik since hk isn't quarantine | 06:18 |
| xrogaan | Hong Kong closed its border to China very early on, so people couldn't percolate in. | 06:18 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: all of beijing? | 06:19 |
| xrogaan | (most sane countries bordering China did) | 06:19 |
| xrogaan | yeah, all of beijing. | 06:19 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: w 21mill possible hosts in bejing, why didn't it go italy in there? | 06:19 |
| xrogaan | maybe they lifted the lockdown on Beijing, I don't know. | 06:19 |
| xrogaan | Very agressive approach: you stay in your home or you get shot/beaten. | 06:20 |
| xionbox[m] | xrogaan: concerning the lifting of the quarantine, could you explain why the following would _not_ work: quarantine people for 15 days (incubation period is up to 14 IIRC). Everyone who develops symptoms is then quarantined in the hospital. Only visitors allowed are people who have recovered from the disease. Once almost all patients have recovered, then lift the quarantine. During this process, also quarantine any | 06:20 |
| xionbox[m] | medical personnel who is tested positive, with the same procedure as above | 06:20 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: where did you learn this? I didn't even hear about beijing | 06:21 |
| xionbox[m] | <dividediff[m] "xrogaan: afaik since hk isn't qu"> Didn't HK also track down people in contact with the confirmed cases, like what South Korea did? | 06:21 |
| xionbox[m] | <xrogaan "Very agressive approach: you sta"> Fun times abound! | 06:21 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: how big are your hospitals? How do you detect asymptomatic cases (as they appear). Children are asymptomatic. | 06:22 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: TIL! | 06:22 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: following since January. | 06:22 |
| xrogaan | yes, HK did contact tracing and all that stuff. Same thing for Taiwan and Singapore. | 06:23 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: ahh you're basically a prophet ha. Did you know since then that the west was toast? | 06:23 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: actually i thought evy country did contract tracing? | 06:23 |
| xrogaan | No, it's stunning how fast it developed. | 06:23 |
| xionbox[m] | xrogaan: tracking in the same way that ROK did, through an app. Say a given household has a single case, then everyone is in quarantine until that case has recovered/has been transported to a facility, plus 14 days (incubation time) of the last case detected in that household. Everyone in contact with any infected case for the 14 days prior is also quarantined and tested | 06:24 |
| xrogaan | Exponential growth isn't easy for our brains to understand. | 06:24 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: in jan, where did you think italy would have been in mid-march | 06:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 05:16 UTC: /u/EggCouncilCreeper: Woolworths Australia CEO urging people not to panic buy: "we do not have a supply issue" — from WHO at 05:16: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Vau3Ar | 06:24 |
| xionbox[m] | Let me reexplain this because I'm not being clear | 06:24 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: ROK has an app. I'll find you the excellent interview (in English) with their minister of foreign affairs | 06:25 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: ty | 06:25 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: still, you need to test everybody for that approach to work. It isn't feasible, not enough test kit or personal. | 06:25 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: The minister of foreign affairs of South Korea said three days ago that the way they have reduced the number of cases is not only through extensive testing but also with an app which warns people if they have been in contact with someone who turned out to be infected. The whole six minute interview is worth listening to: Coronavirus: South Korea seeing a 'stabilising trend' - BBC News | 06:25 |
| xionbox[m] | https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51897979/coronavirus-south-korea-seeing-a-stabilising-trend | 06:25 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: in jan, where did you think italy would have been in mid-march ?** edit | 06:26 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: this guy is a bit of a "doomsayer", but he's been right on the nail the entire time https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom/videos | 06:26 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: That's impossible to know. | 06:27 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: holyyy i'll read thru the whole in a bit, but evy country needs that app! | 06:27 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: all you know is that the disease **will** spread, where and how is unknown. | 06:27 |
| xrogaan | What happened is that the disease got seeded around the world by Chinese people cheating the temperature checks at airports. We know that because those idiot went on social media to brag about it. | 06:28 |
| xrogaan | At that point, nobody really had any idea of how bad the disease is. Italy got struck first, and we still have no real idea of how. | 06:29 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: huh, any idea how they cheated a scanner? I thought china used IR scanners and that those work thru clothes | 06:29 |
| xionbox[m] | xrogaan: here's the idea, hopefully I can explain it better. Start by a full quarantine of the location, and anyone who was in contact with anyone from that location in the previous 14 days (tracing those people might be hard). Tell people that they should avoid going to ER even if they have symptoms and instead dispatch doctors to give them anti-viral drugs only in the extreme case that they are in dire need. If they | 06:29 |
| xionbox[m] | get to the point of requiring hospitalization (I suspect that can be screened through a video conversion with a doc), that person is evacuated to a hospital. Everyone else in the household is quarantined for a minimum of 14 days _after the last known case in that household has either recovered or has been transported out of that place_. | 06:29 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: paracetamol. | 06:29 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: Holy duck, that easy, wow crazy | 06:30 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: i thought it was gonna at least involve some james bond stuff | 06:30 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: how do you filter and screen 50 millions people? As I said, some people don't show symptoms. | 06:30 |
| xionbox[m] | <xrogaan "What happened is that the diseas"> Holy shit I did not know that! I thought it was spread by Italian tourists first who came back to Italy | 06:30 |
| xionbox[m] | But that was an assumption I didn't look it up!! | 06:30 |
| xionbox[m] | <xrogaan "xionbox: how do you filter and s"> You don't. You just assume that everyone has it for the duration of the quarantine plus 14 days after the last known case has left that household. | 06:31 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: a Chinese "tourist" went in France and checked in to a local GP. The GP 2 weeks later was tested positive. | 06:31 |
| xionbox[m] | Wow | 06:31 |
| xionbox[m] | That GP must have infected many many people | 06:32 |
| xrogaan | Yeah. | 06:32 |
| tinwhiskers | xrogaan: by putting "tourist"in quotes are you suggesting they went there with the intent of spreading the disease and were not actually a tourist? | 06:32 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: my question exactly | 06:32 |
| tinwhiskers | xenophobia | 06:32 |
| xrogaan | Other news in stupid: after the "lockdown" orders in our various democracy, the French people massed themselves in trains to flee the urban center. Probably seeding the disease all around the country. | 06:32 |
| xrogaan | tinwhiskers: they went there knowing they were sick, coming from a zone at risk and bragged on social media about it. | 06:33 |
| xrogaan | let me get you a source | 06:34 |
| tinwhiskers | I believe that. I just question the way you're spinning it | 06:34 |
| tinwhiskers | you're implying intent and/or malice, where ignorance is more likely. | 06:34 |
| xrogaan | No, no. They knew full well what they were doing. | 06:35 |
| dividediff[m] | i thought back then, nobody knew it was bad? | 06:35 |
| xrogaan | They didn't intent to "spread" the disease, just escape the quarantine while being sick. | 06:35 |
| tinwhiskers | they knew they were at risk. they didn't know they had the disease | 06:35 |
| xrogaan | No, they knew. | 06:35 |
| xionbox[m] | I've also heard about what xrogaan is saying that a very few number of people are deliberately spreading it. There was a recent case in Seattle | 06:35 |
| tinwhiskers | ah | 06:36 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: source please | 06:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:24 UTC: Australia coronavirus live updates: Scott Morrison to respond to RBA interest rates cut – latest: Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg to respond to RBA announcement, NSW now has 307 confirmed cases, up 40 since yesterday, Peter Dutton says he will ‘come after’ profiteering hoarders, and Qantas and Jetstar cancel [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 06:36 |
| xrogaan | > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkF4qYdNU9Y | 06:36 |
| xrogaan | South African man expat in China. | 06:37 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: my mistake, it wasn't Seattle: https://gizmodo.com/japanese-man-who-threatened-to-intentionally-spread-cov-1842391869 | 06:37 |
| xionbox[m] | Oh also | 06:37 |
| tinwhiskers | This is more like people trying to avoid the social distancing rules in Italy. Suggesting they were knowingly and intentionally spreading the disease still seems disingenuous to me. | 06:37 |
| xionbox[m] | Or, let me totally retract what I said | 06:37 |
| xionbox[m] | He threatened to spread it | 06:37 |
| xionbox[m] | Apologies | 06:37 |
| xrogaan | tinwhiskers: dude, you have no idea how resistant to change people are. My dad needed to see the effect of the empty shelves in the stores to take this problem seriously. | 06:38 |
| tinwhiskers | I just don't believe they were intentionally setting out to infect people | 06:39 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: thanks for requesting a source from me on that; I should have had a solid source before even echoing the idea | 06:39 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: oh man that guy really deserved to die | 06:39 |
| HeXiLeD | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/generation-has-died-italian-province-struggles-bury-coronavirus-dead | 06:39 |
| xrogaan | tinwhiskers: well, of course not, they're not evil. | 06:39 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: not that it's good that he died, but like "not cool man" | 06:40 |
| xrogaan | tinwhiskers: don't assume evil. | 06:40 |
| tinwhiskers | xrogaan: but you were implying it was them intentionally spreading the disease | 06:40 |
| dividediff[m] | dividediff: no worries on source, we're not like a peer reviewed journal ha | 06:40 |
| xrogaan | The spreading occured because the individuals were individualistic assholes. | 06:40 |
| tinwhiskers | that I agree with | 06:40 |
| HeXiLeD | only draconian measures will put a stop to the spread. This is what china did. | 06:41 |
| xrogaan | They *knew* they were sick, they bragged about hiding symptoms to enter foreign countries, and they were found carrying the disease. | 06:41 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: japan, korea, singapore (not sure about singa) are doing well without draconian | 06:41 |
| tinwhiskers | xrogaan: yes, that's horrible | 06:42 |
| tinwhiskers | well, unforgivable | 06:42 |
| xrogaan | That's what happened: they spread the disease, whether they wanted to or not. | 06:42 |
| dividediff[m] | Surely the 'tourist' didn't know it lead to such a high chance of daeth? | 06:42 |
| xrogaan | it's irrelevant. | 06:42 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: like all my friends here think 'it's just a flu' and go hangout | 06:42 |
| HeXiLeD | dividediff[m]:didnt those already had sars in the past? | 06:42 |
| tinwhiskers | that's the sort of thing that should get you put up on charges of manslaughter | 06:42 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: what do you mean? | 06:43 |
| HeXiLeD | i mean that this is round 2 for them and therefore they learned from the past and are better prepared | 06:44 |
| Zalyssa | I wouldn't take HeXiLeD very seriously | 06:44 |
| xionbox[m] | tinwhiskers: actually, I was wondering about those charges of manslaughter: since people sue everyone all the time in the US, should we expect class action lawsuit against the US gov for its butchered response by survivors and relatives of the deceased? The Trump admin repeated until a mere days ago that it was a total hoax and undercontrol | 06:44 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: anyhow, your suggestion would have worked if it were in effect early on. Too late now. | 06:44 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: i believe canada had the 5th most sars cases but canada is woefully underprepared and only reacting, not using pre-emptive plans | 06:45 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: about lawsuits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXaBhnug_RQ | 06:45 |
| HeXiLeD | agreed on underprepared | 06:45 |
| sandro_ | %data germany | 06:45 |
| Brainstorm | sandro_: In all areas, Germany, there are 12327 cases, 28 deaths (0.2% of cases), 105 recoveries as of March 18, 19:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 06:45 |
| xionbox[m] | xrogaan: you may be right. In the BBC interview, the MFAT of ROK says that they stopped the spread by tracking everyone immediately. And, as I posted earlier, this Reuters article showed that the South Korea and the US announced their first case the same day! | 06:45 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak#Outbreak_by_country_and_territory | 06:46 |
| twomoon | omg SK and USA had first case on same day....crazy | 06:47 |
| twomoon | how the hell was SK's response so swift | 06:47 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: canada had the 4th most cases and korea had the 19th most cases of sars | 06:47 |
| yuriwho | testing and contact tracing | 06:47 |
| twomoon | how the hell could canada have that many | 06:48 |
| dividediff[m] | twomoon: sars? | 06:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 05:43 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Josh Marshall su Twitter: "It looked like Italy’s wave might be starting to crest, and maybe it still will. But Wednesday wasn’t kind to that theory.… https://t.co/FBMpIPddP7" — from WHO at 05:43: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/TbjymC | 06:48 |
| xionbox[m] | xrogaan: interesting that they are suing the cruise company. That makes sense somewhat. But I would assume that the massive downplay of the virus by the government would be grounds for a lawsuit in itself. Heck maybe can the cruise lines use the quotes by the POTUS to say "we didn't know, we thought it was just a flu" | 06:48 |
| yuriwho | super spreader in a hospital in Toronto iirc for SARS | 06:48 |
| HeXiLeD | how many cases in toronto ? any stats? | 06:49 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: So i think sars wasn't the reason korea was so ready. I think it helped, but it's something else and i'm not sure what | 06:49 |
| yuriwho | Ontario has 214 cases, majority in the GTA | 06:50 |
| yuriwho | GTA = greater Toronto area | 06:50 |
| dividediff[m] | yuriwho: from what i remember i think yuriwho is right | 06:50 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: | 06:50 |
| HeXiLeD | yuriwho: where do you get those numbers? | 06:51 |
| HeXiLeD | dividediff[m]: that was an empty line | 06:51 |
| xrogaan | Honestly, people are underestimating how far the CPP will go to protect itself and its country. The early videos from China are terrifying. | 06:51 |
| twomoon | i have a feeling that south korea uses their 'national guard' or whatever more frequently | 06:51 |
| yuriwho | HeXiLeD:https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en | 06:51 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: sry, from what i remember i think yuriwho is right | 06:51 |
| twomoon | they have mandatory military service and they always have some ppl training | 06:51 |
| twomoon | and maybe they just take things way more seriously | 06:52 |
| xrogaan | twomoon: nothing like a deranged neighbor with missiles pointed at your capital to build a strong character. | 06:52 |
| HeXiLeD | yuriwho: i only see the US there | 06:52 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: i'm looking around for a toronto sars source, but nothing is popping up as the first link | 06:52 |
| twomoon | lol | 06:53 |
| HeXiLeD | oh sorry | 06:53 |
| HeXiLeD | found it . | 06:53 |
| HeXiLeD | browser was not rendering properly | 06:53 |
| xrogaan | twomoon: literally, NK could easily bomb Seoul. The threat is ever present. | 06:53 |
| twomoon | i always forget about that. but japan is threatened too | 06:53 |
| yuriwho | also, SK ramped up testing early because of that cult. They were never short of test kits and RNA isolation kits. North America is currently short on the RNA isolation kits as other outbreaks bought up the global supply | 06:54 |
| twomoon | and japan isn't taking this very seriously yet | 06:54 |
| xrogaan | not as much, artillery doesn't reach that far. | 06:54 |
| twomoon | oh ok | 06:54 |
| xrogaan | they need missiles, and those can be detected. Japan is pretty advanced too. | 06:54 |
| twomoon | they were eager to pin the blame on the cult probably | 06:54 |
| twomoon | why isn't japan deploying more testing at random | 06:54 |
| twomoon | that's the big question | 06:55 |
| twomoon | they seem to be a country that takes this sort of thing very seriously, and even moreso with the olympics on the way | 06:55 |
| twomoon | it's bizarre their response so far | 06:55 |
| xrogaan | They're an island too, so that helps. Limited vectors of entry. | 06:56 |
| dividediff[m] | twomoon: no way is the olympics gonna happen. | 06:56 |
| dividediff[m] | twomoon: Looking here, it doesn look like japan is accelerating | 06:57 |
| dividediff[m] | https://covid19tracker.cc/ | 06:57 |
| dunnp | yuriwho: the rna isolation kit story is just embarassing | 06:57 |
| dividediff[m] | sorry, does** look like | 06:57 |
| dunnp | you dont need kits to isolate rna | 06:58 |
| dunnp | it is easy to do | 06:58 |
| yuriwho | yea, public health labs borrowing kits from research universities | 06:58 |
| dunnp | stanford is having people volunteer to do rna preps for the health dept | 06:58 |
| dunnp | with trizol | 06:58 |
| dunnp | much cheaper than a kit | 06:59 |
| dividediff[m] | japan has only had 29 deaths despite getting covid early on | 06:59 |
| yuriwho | back when I was a grad student, we made our own reagents, kits were a new thing during my days in grad school | 06:59 |
| dunnp | kits are for people that don't really know what they are doing... like the health dept... | 06:59 |
| xrogaan | covid-19 isn't the black plague. You can easily avoid getting it, but it requires consistent behavior. | 06:59 |
| dunnp | phenol chloroform done | 07:00 |
| xrogaan | Japan also, as a culture, do not shake hand. | 07:00 |
| xrogaan | Nor do hugs. | 07:00 |
| yuriwho | yea, it’s helps being a chemist as well as a molecular biologist so you understand how everything works | 07:00 |
| dividediff[m] | Can any of the bots here get r0? | 07:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 05:50 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: China reports 34 new cases but none in epicenter Hubei: China's National Health Commission said there were 34 new cases, which it attributed to travelers returning from abroad. — from WHO at 05:50: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Z5Exkx | 07:00 |
| dividediff[m] | How much difference do we think not shaking hands makes? | 07:00 |
| xrogaan | They are doing social distancing by default, so to speak. | 07:00 |
| dunnp | the health dept people dont know how to do it but they are way to slow to ask for help | 07:01 |
| dunnp | first thing they asked for was all the rna isolation kits | 07:01 |
| dunnp | instead of help | 07:01 |
| xrogaan | You need to clean your home, door knob and all whenever you or somebody from the household comes back from the outside. | 07:01 |
| Albright | Two US legislators have tested positive. | 07:02 |
| dividediff[m] | Whats the R0 for the black plague? | 07:03 |
| xrogaan | Albright: more to follow | 07:03 |
| Albright | One from the party of dipshits and one from the party of assholes. | 07:03 |
| Albright | I'll let you decide which one is which (you won't be wrong). | 07:03 |
| xionbox[m] | Albright: do we know if they were sitting in proximity to each other? | 07:03 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: 200 millions death. | 07:03 |
| dividediff[m] | I mean the basic reproduction number? | 07:03 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: 4 times as much as spanish flu. | 07:03 |
| dividediff[m] | sry, ? = . | 07:04 |
| yuriwho | sad really, the lack of preparedness seems obvious now, but I guess no one convinced the gvmt’s to prepare for what a fast spreading epidemic could do | 07:04 |
| Albright | xionbox[m]: Separate parties, so probably not sitting near each other on the floor. That doesn't mean they didn't gladhand or sit together at a bar or lunch table or something. | 07:04 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: right now, the plague is under 1 | 07:04 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: when it was a problem, err, I don't want to think about it. | 07:05 |
| xionbox[m] | Albright: good point, I'm getting tired so that didn't compute | 07:05 |
| yuriwho | “bring out your dead” | 07:05 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: Best i found is "According to the estimates, the basic reproduction number, R0, was on the order of 2.8 to 3.5," | 07:05 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: " in Mukden, China (1946), and Madagascar (1957)." | 07:06 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: is the R0 the number of people that one person infects, right ? | 07:06 |
| yuriwho | I need to watch those Monty Python movies again.... you always find new humour each time you watch them | 07:06 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: i believe so | 07:06 |
| xionbox[m] | k | 07:06 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: it depends on what society do to prevent the disease spread and/or cure it. | 07:06 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: covid is 1.4–3.9. | 07:07 |
| dividediff[m] | So black plague is easier to get, but not by leaps and bounds | 07:07 |
| dividediff[m] | from eye balling the numbers | 07:08 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: we don't have a vaccine, so yeah. | 07:08 |
| xrogaan | but the black plague do kill you, covid may not. | 07:08 |
| dividediff[m] | yea fatality like ++ | 07:08 |
| xionbox[m] | Interesting | 07:09 |
| yuriwho | there’s no vaccine for black plague (Yersinia pestis) I am aware of. | 07:09 |
| yuriwho | easily treated with antibiotics though | 07:09 |
| tinwhiskers | 10% mortality with treatment, 30-90% if untreated | 07:10 |
| xrogaan | and we can't cure the corona thingy through antibiotics apparently? | 07:10 |
| tinwhiskers | xrogaan: it's a virus | 07:10 |
| xrogaan | It's a virus, not a bacteria. | 07:11 |
| yuriwho | I think this continues until we have vaccines broadly available | 07:11 |
| tinwhiskers | I think so | 07:11 |
| dividediff[m] | yuriwho: antiviral miracle could work too | 07:12 |
| xrogaan | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Death_toll | 07:12 |
| tinwhiskers | Although we will probably have treatments that will reduce the fatality rate | 07:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:54 UTC: Australia coronavirus live updates: Scott Morrison to respond to RBA interest rates cut – latest: PM announces new travel restrictions and responds to RBA interest rates cut; NSW cases spike to 307; and Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights as economic fallout from Covid-19 continues. Follow all the latest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 07:12 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: it's more than not shaking hands, the Japanese people don't touch each other as frequently as we do. | 07:12 |
| tinwhiskers | I think there will be a lot of pressure to fast-track the vaccine testing | 07:12 |
| rundmc | good morning | 07:13 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: Here's an info graphic of plagues some1 posted earlier in this room | 07:13 |
| dividediff[m] | https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/WPKbLAwMJYOmSnPbFoskdqzn | 07:13 |
| yuriwho | yes, we will have neutralizing antibodies from either recovered people or from mice with human immune systems available soon but it will take a vaccine to get back to ‘normal’ | 07:13 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: so as long as they keep your surrounding clean, they'll be fine. A little less sociable than normal. | 07:13 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: what touching do we do thats more than them? | 07:14 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: what country r u from? | 07:14 |
| xrogaan | they also have a serious societal issue where young people refuse(?) to be in couple. | 07:15 |
| yuriwho | handshakes vs bowing etc. | 07:15 |
| xrogaan | their birth rate are plummeting. | 07:15 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: oh that couple thing true | 07:15 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: well, the french do 2 to 5 kisses when they meet. The japanese people don't do any kisses. | 07:15 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: i believe it's more common for them to live with parents for longer, so that should transmit more illness to parents i'd think | 07:16 |
| xrogaan | cheek kisses means heads being close, so spreading is easy. | 07:16 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: true, but that kissing doesn't happen in usa | 07:16 |
| xrogaan | They don't shake hands, meaning they don't often touch each other in any kind of way. | 07:16 |
| xrogaan | Their problem is the overcrowded public transport, which can be easily solved. | 07:17 |
| dividediff[m] | I'm still wondering if there is more to the vast differences in case totals than handshaking compared to usa | 07:17 |
| xrogaan | They're generally more reserved, don't show public form of affection, that kind of stuff. | 07:18 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: did they do a korea stlye phone app tracing? | 07:18 |
| xrogaan | how would I know? | 07:18 |
| dividediff[m] | rhetorical question right? | 07:20 |
| Albright | %data idaho | 07:23 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: In Idaho, US, there are 11 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 02:35Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 07:23 |
| dividediff[m] | diamond princess still stationed at japan? | 07:23 |
| HeXiLeD | dividediff[m]: what server are you using in the matrix? | 07:25 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: the default one, | 07:25 |
| dividediff[m] | im not sure how to check, but i'm using riot.im | 07:26 |
| dividediff[m] | japan quickly introduced forced quarantines | 07:26 |
| HeXiLeD | phone? | 07:26 |
| dividediff[m] | * japan quickly introduced forced quarantines of the sick | 07:26 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: yea | 07:26 |
| HeXiLeD | thats a lot of typing on such small piece of real estate | 07:26 |
| dividediff[m] | i have a comp too, but much is on ph | 07:27 |
| dividediff[m] | it's why i typo like a beast | 07:27 |
| HeXiLeD | any cases in your area? | 07:27 |
| dividediff[m] | canada ~729 i believe | 07:28 |
| HeXiLeD | yah but your area | 07:28 |
| dividediff[m] | ~6 | 07:29 |
| dividediff[m] | you? | 07:29 |
| HeXiLeD | nothing that i know. | 07:29 |
| dividediff[m] | what country? | 07:29 |
| HeXiLeD | .ca | 07:30 |
| dividediff[m] | oh another canadian! did we talk about this already? | 07:30 |
| HeXiLeD | nop | 07:31 |
| HeXiLeD | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E9vIUtXa9ug | 07:31 |
| dividediff[m] | there wer a few of us online tdy | 07:31 |
| HeXiLeD | just got this from a friend in manitoba | 07:31 |
| HeXiLeD | ya i know | 07:31 |
| kungflu | is there an intelligent explanation for why germany's mortality rate is apparently lower than everyone else's? | 07:33 |
| twomoon | it just has so far hit a healthy group of people? | 07:33 |
| twomoon | the non-smoker neighborhood | 07:33 |
| HeXiLeD | i was going to give one but was not intelligent | 07:33 |
| dividediff[m] | Japan has had community spread since like feb 5th. So community spread is controlable | 07:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 06:33 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Australia coronavirus live updates: Scott Morrison to respond to RBA interest rates cut – latest | World news | The Guardian — from WHO at 06:33: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/p3Mm3M | 07:36 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: better healthcare. | 07:38 |
| dividediff[m] | they had testing centers set up from ~feb 1 | 07:38 |
| kungflu | not if you got by LE | 07:42 |
| kungflu | https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5522a6.htm | 07:42 |
| xionbox[m] | xrogaan: Healthcare in France is better than that in Germany, both in terms of accessibility and outcomes (and price). I would guess that it's cultural: Germans aren't are "touchy" as Latins (French, Spanish, Italian); they also tend to follow the rules (whereas in France a common idiom is that "rules are meant to be broken"). So if there was an announcement saying "yo, this is dangerous, isolate yourself", the Germans | 07:43 |
| xionbox[m] | would tend to follow it, whereas the French would not | 07:43 |
| xrogaan | The French kisses 2 to 5 TIMES! | 07:44 |
| rajrajraj | Ew | 07:44 |
| xrogaan | "hello!" *smooch left* *smooch right* *smooch left* *smooch right* *smooch left* | 07:44 |
| xrogaan | so, social distancing then? | 07:45 |
| xrogaan | Seems to be the golden rule. | 07:45 |
| HeXiLeD | 2 times only | 07:46 |
| HeXiLeD | most western europe does the same | 07:46 |
| HeXiLeD | well.. was doing the same | 07:46 |
| rajrajraj | xrogaan: HeXiLeD hi | 07:47 |
| xrogaan | I'm Belgian and I only kiss once. But only if I know you. | 07:48 |
| HeXiLeD | 5 times makes no sense. no one does that | 07:48 |
| xrogaan | THE FRENCH DO! | 07:48 |
| HeXiLeD | i dated a french chick and have french relatives | 07:49 |
| HeXiLeD | 2 times | 07:49 |
| twomoon | eww | 07:49 |
| rajrajraj | Ew | 07:49 |
| xrogaan | HeXiLeD: alright, so, it depend on the subculture. | 07:50 |
| HeXiLeD | that has to be a weird one. | 07:50 |
| rajrajraj | HeXiLeD: does french ppl kiss on same gender | 07:50 |
| xrogaan | "French" isn't one uniform culture, you have multiple people under that umbrella. | 07:50 |
| HeXiLeD | regular greeting no. who the heck does that | 07:50 |
| HeXiLeD | i never really liked most greetings. I am a fan of the japanese bow | 07:51 |
| HeXiLeD | smart thing tho | 07:51 |
| xrogaan | Historically, the French language was the one of the latin nobility who ruled over multiple different cultures. After the rebellion and establishment of the republic, the power that be at the time needed national unity: so French became a national language taught to all. | 07:52 |
| xrogaan | You can see notable remnant of previous cultures in Brittany and Alsace. | 07:52 |
| xrogaan | The French language comes from the Roman occupation. | 07:54 |
| xionbox[m] | <rajrajraj "HeXiLeD: does french ppl kiss on"> Yes, if they're friends. Women also tend to kiss other women when they meet, and men when they meet. But I would say that calling it "a kiss" gives the wrong impression to people who haven't lived in such cultures. It isn't really a kiss, your cheek touches the other person's cheek and you make a sound. Lips don't touch anyone's skin. And the noise is everything, you can't | 07:56 |
| xionbox[m] | get that wrong or it's weird (source: I'm also French) | 07:56 |
| HeXiLeD | kiss on the face yes. I understood it as lips | 07:57 |
| HeXiLeD | but men tend to do it to relatives that are close | 07:57 |
| HeXiLeD | abut i never seen any of that with those men i met. | 07:58 |
| HeXiLeD | or relatives | 07:58 |
| xrogaan | yeah, no lips are involved. | 08:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 06:49 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Clarifying one point that has caused a lot of confusion re: testing. — from WHO at 06:49: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/2ricZ8 | 08:00 |
| xrogaan | but your head get close to somebody else, which spread diseases like covid. | 08:00 |
| HeXiLeD | i am wondering when all this ends, how his the world look at china | 08:01 |
| HeXiLeD | *is | 08:01 |
| HeXiLeD | some info seems to point out at 'issues' with a corona lab nearby the wet market | 08:01 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: how do you translate "bisoux" to people foreign to the principle? | 08:02 |
| HeXiLeD | kiss | 08:02 |
| xionbox[m] | Yes, the literal translation is a kiss, I agree | 08:02 |
| xionbox[m] | But when you tell that to Americans, they often think it's like a teenage crush kiss where one's lips touch the other person's cheek | 08:03 |
| pwr22 | !cases | 08:03 |
| CovBot | In World there have been a total of 219,600 cases as of 2020-03-19 06:30:00 UTC. Of these 124,964 (56.9%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 85,659 (39.0%) have definitely recovered and 8,977 (4.1%) have died. | 08:03 |
| HeXiLeD | ya and is not. | 08:03 |
| xrogaan | They think about joe biden kissing his grand daughter? | 08:03 |
| xionbox[m] | Haha maybe I haven't seen that video | 08:04 |
| pwr22 | !cases china | 08:04 |
| CovBot | In China there have been a total of 81,138 cases as of 2020-03-11 02:18:14 UTC. Of these 7,363 (9.1%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 70,526 (86.9%) have definitely recovered and 3,249 (4.0%) have died. | 08:04 |
| xrogaan | xionbox[m]: https://nytimespost.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Joe-Biden-kisses-granddaughter-on-lips-during-Iowa-rally.jpg | 08:04 |
| xrogaan | creeps me out, and I know many French people who like kisses. | 08:05 |
| xionbox[m] | Holy wow, damn | 08:05 |
| HeXiLeD | yah that was weird. | 08:05 |
| xionbox[m] | Creepy Biden | 08:06 |
| HeXiLeD | in europe there is no lips kiss at least to my experience. xionbox[m] feedback? | 08:06 |
| xionbox[m] | HeXiLeD: not between friends, correct. Between couples, yes, of course | 08:06 |
| HeXiLeD | yes. | 08:07 |
| HeXiLeD | and not between family member except spouses afaik | 08:07 |
| dividediff[m] | "South Korean media outlets have also compared the number of samples tested and the number of confirmed cases between Japan and South Korea, leading them to believe that there are more cases of the virus in Japan. This has led to speculations in South Korea that the decision not to increase the number of samples tested was influenced by the country's plans to host the 2020 Summer Olympics" | 08:08 |
| dividediff[m] | Basically, seems like japan was largely more prepared for covid than western countries. built in social distancing prob helped. But they didn't do any radical to stem the tide. | 08:10 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: understandable. Most countries are very afraid about the economic fallout of this disease. | 08:10 |
| xrogaan | It's actually pretty common, USA leading the lot. | 08:10 |
| twomoon | what they don't understand is if all countries fall in unison it's okay | 08:12 |
| dividediff[m] | Anyone have any thought about the japanese formula of: after case of local transmission, peak 3 months afterwards | 08:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: some tube stations close, Australia bans foreign arrivals and Hubei reports no new cases — from WHO at 07:05: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 08:12 |
| dividediff[m] | AFAIK usa's local spread started like mar 1, so their peak might happen at like may | 08:14 |
| xrogaan | nonsense | 08:14 |
| xrogaan | usa never tested, it started in February. | 08:15 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: they had local spread in feb? | 08:15 |
| xrogaan | Testing is a political decision, which came very late in the US. | 08:15 |
| xrogaan | Yes | 08:15 |
| xrogaan | !! | 08:15 |
| xrogaan | asymptomatic spread. That's why it's hard to track. | 08:16 |
| dividediff[m] | Well thats good, it means their peak is 2 months away rather than 3 if formula holds up | 08:16 |
| dividediff[m] | i have a feeling the formula isn't right tho | 08:16 |
| xrogaan | it's not good, it means a lot more people will be affected than necessary. | 08:17 |
| xrogaan | don't conflate authorities doing nothing with absence of disease. | 08:17 |
| dividediff[m] | if they reached peak in 3 months from now, it'd be a much higher peak than their peak in 2 months. | 08:18 |
| xrogaan | Based on how the virus spread, how quickly it does, and of badly the population gets affected, the US has no hopes of containing it at this point. | 08:19 |
| xrogaan | The majority of people didn't get the heads up soon enough, and they are getting sick left and right. | 08:20 |
| HeXiLeD | i agree | 08:20 |
| HeXiLeD | and many people in the US dont care | 08:20 |
| HeXiLeD | look at spring breakers | 08:20 |
| xrogaan | People going in the supermarket to stock up, and mobbing the toilet paper are more likely to get sick, as they get too close to each other. | 08:21 |
| dividediff[m] | "A 54-year-old man in the Japanese city of Kiryu was also arrested on Monday after he threatened people on a train and told them he had covid-19. It turns out he was just drunk." | 08:22 |
| xrogaan | You need to understand: stay away from other people (by staying at home). Be cordial when you need to, but do not get close. | 08:22 |
| HeXiLeD | yup | 08:22 |
| dividediff[m] | basically saying you have covid like like saying 'i have a bombo strapped to my chest' | 08:23 |
| Maximxxx100 | all grocery stores are fucked in US right now | 08:23 |
| HeXiLeD | Maximxxx100: are you in the US ? | 08:23 |
| kungflu | He had SAKE-19 | 08:23 |
| xrogaan | That's nothing. > https://www.brusselstimes.com/brussels/99472/footage-of-man-smearing-saliva-on-brussels-metro-pole-goes-viral-stib-drunk/ | 08:23 |
| dividediff[m] | Japan is only conducting an average of 1,190 tests for covid-19 per day, roughly a sixth of the nation’s capacity, | 08:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:18 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Essential service? Call for Crown casinos and pokie venues to be shut during coronavirus outbreak — from WHO at 07:18: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/7h4WE9 | 08:24 |
| Maximxxx100 | it's crazy, every single grocery store near me is out of: Toilet Paper, water, meat, dairy, milk, bread, and many meds are gone | 08:24 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: where are you from? | 08:24 |
| Maximxxx100 | West Coast, US | 08:24 |
| Maximxxx100 | You cant get tested at all in many states | 08:25 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: canada | 08:25 |
| xrogaan | Maximxxx100: thanks your president. | 08:25 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: focus on canada. Fuck the Japanese. | 08:25 |
| HeXiLeD | eheh | 08:25 |
| Maximxxx100 | doctors tell you to stay home, and say they cant do anything. | 08:25 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: you? | 08:25 |
| Maximxxx100 | People cant get tested | 08:25 |
| HeXiLeD | and they are correct Maximxxx100 | 08:25 |
| xrogaan | I said it already, I'm from Belgium. | 08:25 |
| HeXiLeD | get ready for the same or similar fate as italy | 08:25 |
| HeXiLeD | @ Maximxxx100 | 08:26 |
| xrogaan | HeXiLeD: I expect worse than Italy for the US. | 08:26 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: sorry, missed it | 08:26 |
| Maximxxx100 | almost every restaurant, gym, and store is closed in my entire state | 08:26 |
| HeXiLeD | xrogaan:.... mmmm... possible | 08:26 |
| xrogaan | HeXiLeD: they got seeded around the same time, except that the US got their heads in their butthole the whole time where as italy got their act together. | 08:27 |
| Maximxxx100 | going around it's like a ghost town, no cars on the road, no people | 08:27 |
| HeXiLeD | true | 08:27 |
| dividediff[m] | How long til usa looks like present day italy? do you guys think | 08:27 |
| HeXiLeD | probably here too. not sure. i have not been out regardless of the situation | 08:27 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: never, because the US is as big as Europe. | 08:27 |
| HeXiLeD | dividediff[m]:2 months | 08:27 |
| HeXiLeD | maybe less | 08:27 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: so it is on a state by state basis. | 08:28 |
| kungflu | so far the states hardest hit voted for hillary | 08:28 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: i expect ppl will do a france/italy and flee from state to state to avoid lockdowns, so i think it'll be even spread across the states | 08:28 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: unless the gov sets up blockades first, then announces lockdown | 08:29 |
| kungflu | dividediff[m]: people can't just flee. they have homes, family, relatives. | 08:29 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: that is to be expected, yeah. Or simply go back in rural area with their old folks. | 08:29 |
| kungflu | where do they go, a hotel? | 08:29 |
| dividediff[m] | what happened in italy? Were blockades set up first then announcements came after? | 08:29 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: a car? | 08:29 |
| kungflu | dividediff[m]: they did both at once | 08:30 |
| kungflu | so there was a 1-day scramble to leave northern italy | 08:30 |
| kungflu | and then things were shut down | 08:30 |
| xrogaan | no blockade that I know off. | 08:30 |
| xrogaan | People are understanding and mainly stay at home. There are still liberties allowed, like walking the dog, going for groceries and all that. | 08:31 |
| xrogaan | It's just that you can't go to the local pub anymore. | 08:31 |
| kungflu | where is this? | 08:31 |
| xrogaan | nor theater, nor anything that isn't needed. | 08:31 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: Italy? | 08:32 |
| dividediff[m] | huh, not even lombardy? | 08:32 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: also Belgium. Probably France too. | 08:32 |
| kungflu | xrogaan: you seem to be an expert. are you in italy? | 08:32 |
| kungflu | dividediff[m]: yes, they locked down lombardy | 08:32 |
| xrogaan | I'm not an expert, I just keep track of the news. | 08:32 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: dividediff[m]: the whole of Italy is in lock down. | 08:33 |
| xrogaan | Belgium is in lockdown too. | 08:33 |
| dividediff[m] | yea, us on the room are basically a news aggregation machine | 08:33 |
| kungflu | dividediff[m]: they locked down about a third of their population. they didn't allow in/out of certain provinces in lombardy. then they extended to all of italy | 08:33 |
| HeXiLeD | i think spain too ion lockdown and portugal just announced state of emergency | 08:33 |
| kungflu | but by then it was too late | 08:33 |
| kungflu | italy fucked up. and now unfortunately they are paying a very high price. | 08:34 |
| xrogaan | IDK about spain. I heard about Catalogne being quarantined, but I don't pay attention to that country. | 08:34 |
| dividediff[m] | Italy might blockade lombardy later, | 08:34 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: in Belgium, the medical personal are floating the idea that they might need to decide who to put in respiratory aid: younger or older folks. | 08:35 |
| kungflu | the u.s. it trying to avoid an italian fate. but it's hard. the millenial spring breakers (again who mostly voted for hillary) are ignoring the guidelines from health officials. | 08:36 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: that is nonsense. Italy as a whole is closed. | 08:36 |
| dividediff[m] | 0.1% of lombardys have contracted | 08:36 |
| kungflu | we don't know how many in lombardy are infected | 08:36 |
| kungflu | they're not testing everyone | 08:36 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: it's not hard, all it takes is a president to not call a pandemic the "Democrat HOAX". | 08:36 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: i mean a more extreme lockdown, like not being allowed to walk your dog etc | 08:36 |
| dividediff[m] | watch trump get a 2nd impeachment ha | 08:37 |
| kungflu | italy has a president who called it a democrat hoax? | 08:37 |
| kungflu | didn't know | 08:37 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: familiar with https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_18marzo%20ENG.pdf ? | 08:37 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: the US president. | 08:37 |
| kungflu | in the u.s. the places spreading the virus are democrat strongholds | 08:37 |
| kungflu | it's a democrat virus in the u.s. it seems | 08:38 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: no, see, you're incorrect. The reason you're incorrect is because the testing only started to being in the US. | 08:38 |
| xrogaan | It's lagging behind. | 08:38 |
| kungflu | no i'm right. go by death counts. | 08:38 |
| xrogaan | You'll need to wait about a week in order to get the full idea about the spread of the disease in the US. | 08:39 |
| kungflu | sure, eventually it'll spread even to republican strongholds | 08:39 |
| dividediff[m] | <xrogaan "kungflu: in Belgium, the medical"> Woah, when did this happen? | 08:39 |
| xrogaan | Why a week? Because there isn't enough health kit and you can't test that much at one time. | 08:39 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: today | 08:40 |
| kungflu | why is this news? | 08:40 |
| kungflu | emergency rooms do this every day for everything. it's called triage. | 08:40 |
| xrogaan | Not on this scale. | 08:41 |
| kungflu | doesn't matter | 08:41 |
| kungflu | the concept that you prioritize medical resources is not new | 08:41 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: The hospitals are full already? but you guys are only at 1500 cases! | 08:41 |
| xrogaan | It's very asocial of you. The medical corps can't cope with the amount of sick people, which will increase coming weeks. It's dramatic. | 08:42 |
| dividediff[m] | italy; "A shortage of coffins as providers struggle to keep up with demand" | 08:44 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: it depends on the amount of people who needs to be hospitalized. | 08:44 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: They don't test everybody in Belgium, only those who definitively have the thing. Sick people are advised to stay at home. | 08:45 |
| xrogaan | Meaning, the number of cases is much higher than 1800 | 08:45 |
| Maximxxx100 | there's like no testing in the US, in my area, and everyone I know cant even get tested. So they are just shutting down everything | 08:45 |
| kungflu | if they definitely have it then testing wouldn't be needed | 08:45 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: basically, the number of cases reported by Belgium are those who are in need of medical aid. | 08:45 |
| kungflu | Maximxxx100: yes, testing is lagging a lot. but they're supposedly ramping up quickly. | 08:45 |
| kungflu | however, at this point, does testing matter? | 08:46 |
| kungflu | maybe a bit, but not that much | 08:46 |
| kungflu | if you're sort of ill, you stay home and take paracetamol | 08:46 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: 1800 are the amount of people who are very sick. There isn't as much ICU beds around. | 08:46 |
| Maximxxx100 | How are the majority of the collage 20-30 going to survive financially if everything is closed down. A lot of the lower income people are just screwed for the indefinite future. | 08:47 |
| kungflu | if you have respiratory distress you go to the hospiral | 08:47 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: oh piss | 08:47 |
| kungflu | with or without a test | 08:47 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: usa must have launched a huge corona social assistance program right? or is about to | 08:47 |
| dividediff[m] | "Adding to the torment is the fact that relatives cannot visit their loved ones in hospital, or give them proper funerals." | 08:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: some tube stations close, Australia bans foreign arrivals and Hubei reports no new cases — from WHO at 07:35: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 08:48 |
| xrogaan | yeah, Iran is using the mass grave tactic. | 08:48 |
| dividediff[m] | "He’d had a fever for a few days. There was no way to call an ambulance because the line was always busy. He died alone in his room." | 08:48 |
| xrogaan | Other chose to incinerate. | 08:48 |
| kungflu | testing seems to be valuable early on, so you can quickly identify the few cases and isolate them and their contacts. | 08:48 |
| Maximxxx100 | With more tests, we can see if people are actually infected, and they can go to work, while people that are can self-quarantine. Making EVERYONE stay home jobless is not the answer. | 08:48 |
| kungflu | later on, once you have community spread, testing seems to be more about informing the statisticians than in helping with any concrete epidemic mitigation | 08:49 |
| kungflu | once it's spread you just need to shut things down all over | 08:49 |
| xrogaan | yeah, later on testing is pointless. You know the disease is around and spreading. So you need societal measures instead. | 08:49 |
| Maximxxx100 | dividediff[m], possibly, they are working fast to bring it out, but a big problem is that it only will be for people that did their taxes last year. And a lot that are affected that wont apply to. People that are in college, or didn't file last year ect. | 08:50 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: whats the situation with testing kits over there? Do the gov not have the resource to like convert a idk... something into a test kit preparing factory? | 08:51 |
| emanllufruoy[m] | <Maximxxx100 "there's like no testing in the U"> here too | 08:52 |
| xrogaan | kungflu: question about the US: do patients need to pay for the test and/or treatment (ICU bed and all)? | 08:53 |
| dividediff[m] | i have no idea how difficult is to build a test kit or somethign. But i heard in ww2/ww1 volkswagon was converted into volkstank | 08:53 |
| Maximxxx100 | dividediff[m], practically no testing in the USA... my state they are ""testing"" 120 people a day... With several cities in the millions of population that's useless | 08:53 |
| Maximxxx100 | The Hospital system is in shatters, hospitals are over flooded with panicked people thinking they have the Corona and it's just causing huge problems | 08:54 |
| Maximxxx100 | My best friend's father is a doctor in one of the larger hospitals in the state and what he's saying is "There is a nationwide shortage of PPE which is required to administer the swabs as the virus aerosolizes and is easily inhaled , you have to have disposable gowns and eye protection" | 08:55 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: i was wondering for a long time, since america is so wealthy, why not build more hospitals like china? | 08:55 |
| Maximxxx100 | and with all the people going in when they shouldn't with the panic, it's using up all the materials that should be in use for real patients | 08:56 |
| xionbox[m] | <xrogaan "kungflu: question about the US: "> Yes 100% | 08:57 |
| xionbox[m] | By that I mean that you need to pay | 08:57 |
| Maximxxx100 | dividediff[m], political problems- there is always a battle between whether we should use private or public health services (just my guess) | 08:57 |
| xionbox[m] | But insurance may cover some part of it; you usually still walk out with several thousands of dollars | 08:58 |
| dividediff[m] | xionbox: i was wondering for a long time, since america is so wealthy, why not build more hospitals like china? | 08:58 |
| Maximxxx100 | But china is mostly making just temporary hold facilities? | 08:58 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: "freedom" | 08:59 |
| xionbox[m] | dividediff: who knows? Lots of people mistrust the government in general, and think that private companies always do a better job, so maybe that's why? I don't know | 08:59 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: people can build hospital, that's not the job of the government. | 08:59 |
| xrogaan | It's a stupid concept, but that's the US for you. | 08:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 07:52 UTC: Italy's coronavirus death toll spikes yet again as hospitals at the epicenter struggle to cope: Hospitals in Italy's Lombardy are reaching a point where they might not be able to treat any new cases of the virus, as Italy's death toll rises at a record rate. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YUuO9O | 09:00 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: from the looks of this vid, it looks pretty premanent | 09:00 |
| dividediff[m] | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Sh7hghljuQ | 09:00 |
| dividediff[m] | i hope usa gets a better health care system one day! | 09:00 |
| twomoon | can anyone give me anything optimistic | 09:01 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: refraining has failed? :p | 09:01 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: yeah, so, the story about China's hospital... They were leaking. Not the roof, but the piping. | 09:01 |
| twomoon | i didn't know this till now but usa ranks below italy in terms of ICU beds per capita | 09:01 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: you can't build hospitals in 14 days and do a good job. | 09:01 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: insert made in china joke | 09:02 |
| Maximxxx100 | dividediff[m], can you give me a time stamp? | 09:02 |
| dividediff[m] | twomoon: i have good news for you, but you won't like it | 09:02 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: 1 s | 09:02 |
| twomoon | uhhh | 09:03 |
| twomoon | i just checked my BP it's 118/78 | 09:03 |
| twomoon | pulse 81. i'm nervous | 09:03 |
| twomoon | i checked again and it was 123/76 | 09:03 |
| twomoon | same pulse | 09:04 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: https://youtu.be/3Sh7hghljuQ?t=449 you'll get the idea within a minute | 09:04 |
| xrogaan | the US count of ICU bed are way high. But most of the ICU bed in the US wouldn't reach the standard of what a ICU bed needs to be in Europe. | 09:04 |
| euod[m] | <twomoon "same pulse"> checking your pulse will raise it. | 09:05 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: (i attached a timestamp to new url) | 09:05 |
| euod[m] | just be aware of that. | 09:05 |
| Maximxxx100 | dividediff[m], interesting... I guess it's because china has a government run healthcare system that needs factory workers to keep it's economy going | 09:05 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: ooo thats a good one! | 09:06 |
| Maximxxx100 | so they are putting a lot of money into new hospitals | 09:06 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: their construction crew is so huge too, low minimum wage, hire dozen and dozen ha | 09:06 |
| Maximxxx100 | >had tv crews on sight | 09:07 |
| xionbox[m] | <xrogaan "the US count of ICU bed are way "> Really? | 09:07 |
| Maximxxx100 | it was also apart of their propaganda to keep people from panicking | 09:07 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: tho xrogaan said that at least 1 of them did bust a leak. But if you can build a hospital in 12 days, you can prob renovate it in less | 09:07 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: 100% propaganda too | 09:07 |
| Maximxxx100 | yes, 100% propaganda | 09:07 |
| xrogaan | You don't need an economy to make things run. That's a capitalistic concept. To have a healthcare system run, you need doctors, nurses and other personal. So the government needs to take care of those people. | 09:08 |
| Maximxxx100 | actually funny fact | 09:08 |
| dividediff[m] | propachina | 09:08 |
| xrogaan | Governments can just print money, it's not a problem for them. | 09:08 |
| xrogaan | We don't have an economy anymore, or a very limited one. | 09:08 |
| Maximxxx100 | china was able to keep their economy better afloat because of the constant propaganda in the last few weeks | 09:08 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: this is true comrade | 09:08 |
| twomoon | euod[m], if i wear a motorcycle helmet everywhere (or a Power Ranger suit) will that help more than a N95 mask? | 09:09 |
| Maximxxx100 | saying to believe in the national pride, don't panic, don't sell | 09:09 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: afaik only wuhan province was badly affected. Their other provinces are doing pretty usual | 09:09 |
| Maximxxx100 | vs the US were all investors lost all hope and kept on selling and selling... | 09:09 |
| euod[m] | <twomoon "euod, if i wear a motorcycle hel"> I doubt anybody knows really. it seems to have very long life on surfaces and in the air. | 09:09 |
| dividediff[m] | twomoon: did you like my good news? :p | 09:09 |
| xrogaan | The ECB (European Central Bank) announced having "unlocked" billions to buy back debts amid the crisis. | 09:09 |
| twomoon | euod[m], do you rinse off your container of milk and your eggs after you come home? | 09:10 |
| xrogaan | that means they just created money out of thin air. | 09:10 |
| azy | money printers go BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR | 09:10 |
| Maximxxx100 | BRRRRRR -- good meme | 09:10 |
| euod[m] | <twomoon "euod, do you rinse off your cont"> I've not left my property in weeks, I haven't bought anything from outside. so, no. | 09:10 |
| twomoon | i didn't get your good news dividediff[m] | 09:10 |
| azy | https://brrr.money/ | 09:10 |
| xrogaan | > https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/economy/ecb-bailout/index.html | 09:10 |
| xionbox[m] | Ha, and quantitative easing | 09:10 |
| twomoon | wow you were prepared euod[m] | 09:10 |
| azy | qUaNtiTATiVe EAsInG | 09:11 |
| euod[m] | pre-existing condition of not liking people in general. | 09:11 |
| dividediff[m] | azy: check out ##coronavirus-vox, the place was made for you ha | 09:11 |
| azy | bant ;( | 09:11 |
| euod[m] | if it came down to it, due to some purchasing mistakes I could definitely live off ring pops. | 09:11 |
| dividediff[m] | twomoon: like you didn't understand it or that you didn't receive it? :p | 09:11 |
| twomoon | nevermind i get the joke | 09:12 |
| euod[m] | didn't pay attention and ended up with hundreds of the stupid things. | 09:12 |
| xrogaan | The problem isn't the economy or money. The problem is keeping the people in charge of making food active. | 09:12 |
| xrogaan | and hoping doctors to not get sick. | 09:12 |
| euod[m] | yeah. there's things like farms where everything dies if there's not someone in control. | 09:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: some tube stations close, Australia bans foreign arrivals and Hubei reports no new cases — from WHO at 08:05: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 09:12 |
| euod[m] | <xrogaan "and hoping doctors to not get si"> what's the quote? enjoy having a IV placed by a gynecologiest. | 09:13 |
| xrogaan | Doctors and nurses, in this situation, are like special forces. If they go out of commission, you can't replace them. | 09:13 |
| pwr22 | Breaking new: my local starbucks in the UK has started refusing cash payments and is removing all the seating and becoming takeaway only | 09:14 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: canada too a few days ago. I'm glad uk is stepping it up finally! | 09:14 |
| xrogaan | oh, the UK. Another doomed country. | 09:14 |
| azy | royal mail stopped having people sign for packages | 09:14 |
| aeth | pwr22: I saw photos of Starbucks doing that two days ago | 09:14 |
| azy | 14th mar | 09:14 |
| aeth | I guess it's worldwide... | 09:15 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: uk schools are closed this coming friday? | 09:15 |
| Maximxxx100 | lucky, everything in my area is closed. Cant even get a starbucks. | 09:15 |
| xrogaan | Yeah, Belgium too. | 09:15 |
| azy | yes dividediff[m] | 09:15 |
| azy | i.e. last day today | 09:15 |
| Maximxxx100 | Schools in my area are closed ""indefinitely"" moving to online classes or closed outright. | 09:15 |
| pwr22 | <dividediff[m] "Peter Roberts: uk schools are cl"> Tomorrow yeah | 09:15 |
| pwr22 | My friends a teacher, chatting to her atm | 09:15 |
| xrogaan | "online classes" still need teachers | 09:16 |
| Maximxxx100 | I've heard a few schools in the east coast, **are going to be closed for the rest of the year** | 09:16 |
| xrogaan | wow, I'm getting super negative as I get drunk. | 09:16 |
| dividediff[m] | azy: Peter Roberts 2626 cases in the school closing is late, but bettr late then nvr | 09:17 |
| dividediff[m] | * azy: Peter Roberts 2626 cases. the school closing is late, but bettr late then nvr | 09:17 |
| azy | pubs still open, was packed last night again | 09:17 |
| pwr22 | Yeah people going to pubs is stupid | 09:17 |
| azy | working class dont give a fuuuuck and will not be controlled | 09:18 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: I was wondering what was going on with you! Yea you've been getting more negative for like 2 hrs or something now | 09:18 |
| Maximxxx100 | I don't what is going to happen, if everyone cant go to work, how will a heavy capitalism system like the US keep on going? | 09:18 |
| pwr22 | I'm convinced we'll see rioting in the UK before this thing is done | 09:18 |
| pwr22 | UK loves to riot | 09:18 |
| Maximxxx100 | Not everything can work from home over the internet | 09:18 |
| pwr22 | Any opportunity to steal tvs | 09:18 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: but that involves crowds! | 09:18 |
| pwr22 | If there's a "free" TV up for grabs UK people won't care | 09:19 |
| Maximxxx100 | People are saying, "oh things will just reopen in two weeks" but what makes you think Corona will be any better by then? | 09:19 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: thats rough | 09:19 |
| pwr22 | <Maximxxx100 "People are saying, "oh things wi"> I don't think anyone who understands what's going on can be thinking that | 09:20 |
| Maximxxx100 | that's the thing | 09:20 |
| dividediff[m] | Outside of like reddit and this room, nobody gets it :( | 09:20 |
| Maximxxx100 | the media is SCREWED, it's like constant negative propaganda | 09:20 |
| Maximxxx100 | making people panic, more than they should, causing more problems | 09:21 |
| pwr22 | In starbucks another customer commented "it's getting serious now, isn't it?" | 09:21 |
| pwr22 | In my head I'm like "it's always been serious" | 09:21 |
| Maximxxx100 | the media just wants to make more money, say whatever they need to get more views | 09:21 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: you should have given him one of those starbucks stars. Like an 'A for effort' kind of thing ha | 09:22 |
| Maximxxx100 | the state of panic wouldn't be nearly as bad if the media didn't kept on twisting facts and news. | 09:22 |
| Maximxxx100 | I can post pictures of my local grocery stores, the shelves are cleaned off | 09:22 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: who did you vote for? don't answer if you don't want | 09:22 |
| pwr22 | Maximxxx100: yeah, news is always skewed towards the negative and panic | 09:23 |
| Maximxxx100 | I'm serious, the news and media has made the situation a x100 worse | 09:23 |
| azy | 'the media' makes everything worse | 09:25 |
| azy | theyre not here to make things better, theyre here to make cash | 09:25 |
| Maximxxx100 | https://ibb.co/Cbcdzy1 | 09:25 |
| azy | so is panic buying worse than ever? | 09:25 |
| Maximxxx100 | https://ibb.co/2jKPD8d | 09:26 |
| HeXiLeD | i have doubts in 2 weeks | 09:26 |
| dividediff[m] | "More than 70% of those who have died were men." Is this a thing? | 09:27 |
| Maximxxx100 | no paper products, no meat, no bread, no dairy, no milk, no bottled water, and barely any meds left. Panic buying is real | 09:27 |
| HeXiLeD | yes it is a thing | 09:27 |
| HeXiLeD | men are less relevant for the continuation of humans. | 09:28 |
| Maximxxx100 | I was trying to be a normal decent human, and not succumb to the panic buying. But now I'm out of food and left for the scraps of the panic buyers | 09:28 |
| HeXiLeD | one man, 50 women and the world continues | 09:28 |
| HeXiLeD | Maximxxx100: self preservation | 09:28 |
| HeXiLeD | we were all built with it. | 09:28 |
| Maximxxx100 | actually you would need a few thousand people left to repopulate due to genetics | 09:29 |
| HeXiLeD | should make use of it and less political correctness | 09:29 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: huh i wonder how the mechanism works. Like it's not like corona targets prostate or smthg | 09:29 |
| Maximxxx100 | too much inbreeding and people start not coming out right | 09:29 |
| HeXiLeD | that was just one example Maximxxx100 | 09:29 |
| HeXiLeD | dividediff[m]: it is nature balancing things. men are less needed. | 09:30 |
| Birosso | %cases germany | 09:30 |
| Brainstorm | Birosso: In all areas, Germany, there are 12327 cases, 28 deaths (0.2% of cases), 105 recoveries as of March 18, 19:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 09:30 |
| Maximxxx100 | sorry, just a bit irritated over the current conditions of my area | 09:30 |
| HeXiLeD | Maximxxx100: it is normal. | 09:30 |
| Birosso | %cases italy | 09:30 |
| Brainstorm | Birosso: In all areas, Italy, there are 35713 cases, 2978 deaths (8.3% of cases), 4025 recoveries as of March 18, 17:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 09:30 |
| Birosso | O.O | 09:30 |
| dividediff[m] | Maximxxx100: xrogaan went for walk around the room/block it seems, give that a try too? | 09:30 |
| HeXiLeD | i just went outside. | 09:31 |
| Maximxxx100 | haha, probably | 09:31 |
| HeXiLeD | no one around. great | 09:31 |
| dividediff[m] | Birosso: china deaths ~= italy deaths | 09:31 |
| Maximxxx100 | Driving has been fun, no people out driving, and no cops to be found | 09:32 |
| Maximxxx100 | vroom vroom, time to break some traffic laws | 09:32 |
| HeXiLeD | corona rhapsody https://twitter.com/danajaybein/status/1240307541491494912 | 09:33 |
| xrogaan | what? | 09:35 |
| python476 | o/ | 09:35 |
| python476 | usa passed france | 09:36 |
| python476 | our mission is done | 09:36 |
| aradesh | :( | 09:38 |
| xrogaan | python476: ah ah ah | 09:38 |
| python476 | xrogaan: sorry, trump in my system | 09:40 |
| xrogaan | "The French are cowards, they don't get sick fast enough." | 09:43 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: ha ha thats the spirit :p | 09:44 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: feeling better? | 09:44 |
| xrogaan | I don't feel bad, I just get angry. | 09:45 |
| python476 | we're sicker than you ! we're the sickest ! | 09:45 |
| aradesh | is this sketch the reason that loo rolls are in so high demand? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co_DNpTMKXk | 09:45 |
| python476 | #trumpetition | 09:45 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: by better and meant for all emotions, so less angry too :) | 09:45 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: python is on a roll guys, watch out | 09:46 |
| dividediff[m] | :p | 09:46 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: isn't it late in america? that update their cases at this time? | 09:47 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: no idea about the update schedule, I'm just watching JHU | 09:48 |
| python476 | aradesh: nice sketch | 09:48 |
| python476 | aradesh: my bet is on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-mWK_kcZMs&t=1226s | 09:48 |
| python476 | some chinese dude made a tutorial to turn SMS fabric into filtering mask | 09:48 |
| xrogaan | dividediff[m]: no, I'm worried. I have a father, he is at risk and seeing the US being suck a dumb duck irritates me. | 09:51 |
| aradesh | same with my father | 09:51 |
| aradesh | he is also very stubborn and going to ignore advice | 09:51 |
| aradesh | my dad's risk factors: in his 60's, lifetime smoker, has breathing problems caused by pulmonary embolisms in the past, and has high blood pressure | 09:52 |
| xrogaan | This behavior in not acceptable: https://i.redd.it/umx3hbdexzm41.jpg | 09:53 |
| aradesh | yup | 09:53 |
| aradesh | it annoyed me a lot a couple of weeks ago when people were saying, "imagine how many more people will die from the economic problems caused if we take draconian measures" | 09:54 |
| aradesh | now we are taking the draconian measures (in most places) just with several weeks delay | 09:54 |
| aradesh | so it just compounded the problems | 09:54 |
| xrogaan | Anyhow, there is a perfectly sensible reason why there are empty shelves in stores: people run out of reserves. As they stock up several time per week, it's usually not a problem. But now it is, as we need to limit our exposition. | 09:57 |
| xrogaan | So people buy a lot more stuff. | 09:57 |
| xrogaan | Depending on the density of people in a area and the amount of stores available, shelves gets emptied pretty quickly. | 09:57 |
| aradesh | next update in italy death toll is almost certainly going to surpass china's for the first time | 09:58 |
| Jigsy | I think it did, actually. | 09:58 |
| xrogaan | aradesh: I read 500th in on day | 09:58 |
| aradesh | ah, they've already had the update? | 09:58 |
| Jigsy | Oh, I'm thinking dead in one dau. | 09:59 |
| Jigsy | day.* | 09:59 |
| Jigsy | As opposed to total dead. | 09:59 |
| python476 | GM is starting making medical devices | 09:59 |
| xrogaan | my mistake 475 death | 09:59 |
| aradesh | yeah, i think their official death toll is still slightly below the chinese | 09:59 |
| aradesh | so next update will almost certainly pass it | 09:59 |
| astraliam[m] | %data italy | 09:59 |
| Brainstorm | astraliam[m]: In all areas, Italy, there are 35713 cases, 2978 deaths (8.3% of cases), 4025 recoveries as of March 18, 17:33Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 09:59 |
| Jigsy | %data China | 10:00 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In all areas, China, there are 81139 cases, 3249 deaths (4.0% of cases), 70529 recoveries as of March 11, 02:18Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=China for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 4.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 10:00 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: source? | 10:03 |
| xrogaan | Spain :14,769 | 10:03 |
| xrogaan | that doesn't look good. | 10:03 |
| xrogaan | %data spain | 10:03 |
| Brainstorm | xrogaan: In all areas, Spain, there are 14769 cases, 638 deaths (4.3% of cases), 1081 recoveries as of March 19, 01:03Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data. | 10:03 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/kudlow-says-gm-ceo-offered-to-make-ventilators-for-outbreak | 10:03 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: heck yes! | 10:05 |
| dividediff[m] | Volkswagon was volkstank in ww2/1. finally we will have general ventilator and tesliators | 10:05 |
| dividediff[m] | jaguar and toyota too | 10:06 |
| python476 | volkstilator | 10:07 |
| xrogaan | Good news: https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1240279081293352964 | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:51 UTC: Australia coronavirus live updates: Scott Morrison to respond to RBA interest rates cut – latest: PM announces new travel restrictions and responds to RBA interest rates cut; NSW cases spike to 307; and Qantas and Jetstar cancel international flights as economic fallout from Covid-19 continues. Follow all the latest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V3JCYW | 10:09 |
| pwr22 | Hmm, there's quite a big of lag through the matrix IRC bridge | 10:10 |
| pwr22 | Tempted to run my own | 10:10 |
| xrogaan | just connect to IRC. | 10:12 |
| dividediff[m] | Guys if you look at indias testing rate compared to the number of confirmed cases, india is 1. gonna get wrecked or 2. actually has no cases | 10:14 |
| dividediff[m] | https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing | 10:14 |
| dividediff[m] | "Some people require more than one test because of false-negative outcomes" | 10:15 |
| euod[m] | the graph of that page tells it pretty well | 10:16 |
| euod[m] | more testing equals more cases. | 10:16 |
| pwr22 | <xrogaan "just connect to IRC."> I don't want to | 10:16 |
| euod[m] | we should stop testing to reduce the number of cases we cause. | 10:16 |
| euod[m] | also damn it, these are log scales. | 10:17 |
| pwr22 | !cases india | 10:17 |
| CovBot | In India there have been a total of 174 cases as of 2020-03-19 09:02:00 UTC. Of these 156 (89.7%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 15 (8.6%) have definitely recovered and 3 (1.7%) have died. | 10:17 |
| euod[m] | they used a log scale for the number of confirmed. | 10:17 |
| xrogaan | euod[m]: that was Trump's tactic. | 10:17 |
| mefistofeles | euod[m]: what? testing is key, and more testing means more cases being detected, not more cases being causes | 10:20 |
| mefistofeles | caused* | 10:20 |
| euod[m] | mefistofeles: | 10:20 |
| euod[m] | sarcasm. | 10:20 |
| pwr22 | I mean if you're gonna plot an exponential a log scale is actually appropriate but I guess quite misleading to the general public | 10:20 |
| dividediff[m] | Peter Roberts: i was mislead ha | 10:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 09:10 UTC: Abu Dhabi acts to cushion the blow of coronavirus on UAE companies: The UAE government is putting its development plans "on steroids" despite low oil prices and the global coronavirus outbreak, said Mohammed Ali al-Shorafa of the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/LqTaPO | 10:21 |
| mefistofeles | euod[m]: ah ok, sorry | 10:21 |
| euod[m] | that was again, trumps idea. | 10:22 |
| euod[m] | don't test them because it'll make us look weak. | 10:22 |
| dividediff[m] | why is trudeau not sick? His wife is sick. Is he just immune to corona? | 10:22 |
| dividediff[m] | assuming he's not in the incubbation/asymptomatic period | 10:22 |
| xrogaan | maybe not have met his wife since she got sick. | 10:23 |
| pwr22 | Crack perhaps? I hear that's a prophylactic 🙄 | 10:23 |
| HeXiLeD | ah. she has not kissed him. i was having hopes | 10:23 |
| HeXiLeD | one less politician | 10:23 |
| xrogaan | https://twitter.com/peterattiamd/status/1240293938684018688?s=21 | 10:24 |
| dividediff[m] | true, maybe she found out she was sick before they met up | 10:24 |
| dividediff[m] | xrogaan: oh no | 10:25 |
| dividediff[m] | Anybody have idea what the odds are of being natually immune to corona? | 10:25 |
| euod[m] | basically zero. | 10:26 |
| euod[m] | the point of it being "novel" is that nobody has any defense against it. | 10:26 |
| euod[m] | from the literature it seems some blood types a lot more easily affected. | 10:27 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: i saw that blood type thing and thought it was fake. I'm used to seeing those blood type horoscope things. | 10:27 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: is there actually science behind blood types? | 10:27 |
| dividediff[m] | and corona resistance? | 10:27 |
| python476 | https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf | 10:28 |
| python476 | pdf manual | 10:28 |
| euod[m] | it's almost certainly not bullshit. | 10:28 |
| euod[m] | maybe misguided, but not random supersistion. | 10:28 |
| dividediff[m] | "countries including the UK and the Netherlands had been pursuing a “herd immunity” strategy," | 10:29 |
| euod[m] | their outcome was that type A was far more at risk an O. | 10:29 |
| euod[m] | and that's about it. | 10:29 |
| euod[m] | now if that's true, the US and Canada, and most of western europe are majority A type. | 10:30 |
| euod[m] | china is in the order of 20-30% type A. | 10:30 |
| ubLIX | euod[m]: may I ask how you know this? | 10:31 |
| ubLIX | (western majority type and china disposition) | 10:31 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: i'm looking through the manual, but i didn't see anything about blood type | 10:32 |
| euod[m] | source of blood type by country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_type_distribution_by_country | 10:32 |
| euod[m] | source of blood type argument: https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/blood-type-a-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus/ | 10:32 |
| ubLIX | ty | 10:32 |
| dividediff[m] | nice | 10:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:24 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: some London tube stations shut down while Hubei reports no new cases — from WHO at 09:24: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 10:33 |
| euod[m] | united states is around 40%, canada 42%, france and italy at 36% | 10:34 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: there are 2 blood type A, + and -. Does that make a difference? | 10:34 |
| euod[m] | er 42% for the last two. I forgot to include A-. | 10:34 |
| euod[m] | dividediff: it wasn't called out in the original article other than the ABOgroup, not the Rh | 10:35 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: yea i didn't see it either | 10:35 |
| euod[m] | almost everbody is negative anyway. | 10:36 |
| euod[m] | if you're saudi, moroccan, or somewhere in europe it might crack 10%. | 10:36 |
| mefistofeles | woah no new cases in Hubei | 10:36 |
| euod[m] | (for positive types overall) | 10:36 |
| dividediff[m] | 85.5% O in chile woah | 10:37 |
| dividediff[m] | a bunch of south american countries hit high numbers, same with some african countries. Maybe they'll be okay after all! | 10:38 |
| python476 | mefistofeles: still no alternate source of data for chinese areas | 10:42 |
| dividediff[m] | Spring breakers still going ham it seems | 10:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 09:32 UTC: Italy's lockdown will be prolonged, prime minister says, as death toll spikes and hospitals struggle: Italy's lockdown is set to be extended beyond current end-date of April 3, the country's prime minister has said as Italy's death toll rises at a record rate. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YUuO9O | 10:45 |
| xrogaan | https://twitter.com/brhodes/status/1240414144504856577 | 10:45 |
| dividediff[m] | "as many as 96 million people could be infected in coming months, and 480,000 could die" | 10:51 |
| euod[m] | this is why the US goverment has fields filled with cheap, plastic graves | 10:52 |
| euod[m] | or maybe that was a rumor :) | 10:53 |
| euod[m] | a hoax, if you will. | 10:53 |
| kungflu | ben rhodes is an ass | 10:56 |
| ubLIX | how did he get that number as low as 96 million? | 10:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:42 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: some London tube stations shut down while Hubei reports no new cases — from WHO at 09:42: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 10:57 |
| kungflu | ben rhodes worked for obama and admitted to creating a fake narrative that he got the media to repeat in order to pass the horrible iran deal | 10:57 |
| kungflu | ben rhodes also was part of the administration that added so much red tape to the fda that it was impossible to get private business to create covid tests in the us quickly | 10:58 |
| ubLIX | i mean, only 1 in 3? is the geographical layout of the US supposed to limit spread to only 1 in 3? | 10:58 |
| euod[m] | lots of people living in caves and texas :) | 10:59 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: not just a hoax | 11:03 |
| dividediff[m] | a democrat hoax | 11:03 |
| kungflu | countries that are lagged in the evolution of the virus are lucky | 11:04 |
| kungflu | it seems like we'll have good therapeutics soon | 11:04 |
| euod[m] | really? | 11:04 |
| Jigsy | http://www.rfi.fr/en/science-and-technology/20200316-trump-s-attempt-to-get-exclusive-rights-on-coronavirus-vaccine-backfires | 11:04 |
| Jigsy | %title | 11:04 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy, the URL could not be loaded | 11:04 |
| euod[m] | you're looking at a year or more for any sort of scale drug production. | 11:04 |
| kungflu | Jigsy: that's fake news | 11:05 |
| Jigsy | Is it? | 11:05 |
| kungflu | germany confirmed it was fake ass shit | 11:05 |
| euod[m] | kungflu: source? | 11:05 |
| kungflu | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/16/german-company-curevac-says-no-offer-trump-coronavirus-vaccine/5062072002/ | 11:05 |
| ubLIX | not exactly a credible rebuttal | 11:07 |
| kungflu | the company itself said no offer was made | 11:08 |
| kungflu | but sure, believe twitter rumors because orange man bad | 11:08 |
| iz | lol | 11:08 |
| ubLIX | that specifically is not exactly a credible rebuttal | 11:08 |
| kungflu | trump bad trump bad, wah wah wah | 11:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:57 UTC: Business: Stock markets stabilise as ECB launches €750bn coronavirus stimulus – business live — from WHO at 09:57: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/dE37V1 | 11:09 |
| dividediff[m] | euod: i'm joking, i thought trump said corona was a democrat hoax | 11:11 |
| euod[m] | <dividediff[m] "euod: i'm joking, i thought tru"> he literally did | 11:11 |
| Biep[m] | <LjL "mefistofeles, Italy has one of t"> Unless it is like Greece.. | 11:11 |
| ubLIX | kungflu: "CureVac issued a news release on March 3 announcing that its CEO, Daniel Menichella, was invited to the White House to discuss vaccine development with Trump and members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, together with other companies working on vaccines. Menichella left the company abruptly five days ago. A CureVac news release gave no reason for his departure." | 11:12 |
| ubLIX | ^ from your source | 11:12 |
| kungflu | yes and? | 11:12 |
| kungflu | play some spooky music | 11:12 |
| kungflu | conspiracy? | 11:12 |
| euod[m] | it's hard to see that as unrelated | 11:12 |
| kungflu | yes, trump invited top vaccine developers for a conversation. it was televised. | 11:13 |
| kungflu | euod[m]: you're right, let's make up our own version of events. | 11:14 |
| kungflu | the guy met with trump and now he's gone from the company so the only possible conclusion is that trump had tried to get the company to only sell its vaccine to the u.s. | 11:14 |
| euod[m] | <kungflu "euod: you're right, let's make u"> alright, lets ignore a strange coincidence that happened directly after an event that everybody denies happened. | 11:14 |
| kungflu | also putin was there. because you know, russia. | 11:14 |
| euod[m] | there's obviously missing information here. | 11:14 |
| Biep[m] | <ryouma "can you tell if you ahve a fever"> The social way: put your forehead against someone else's. If yours is not warmer and the other person has no fever, they you haven't either. Significant others are good for this. | 11:15 |
| kungflu | have doctors determined where the most accurate temperature check is yet? | 11:16 |
| kungflu | anus, ballsack, or armpit? | 11:16 |
| kungflu | guys seriously, there's tons of bad shit going on, all over the planet, and also some reasons to be optimistic, good therapeutics might be around the corner. | 11:17 |
| kungflu | try to leave your "orange man bad" bs somewhere else. it's boring and doesn't help solve the problem. | 11:17 |
| iz | or at least use a common sense filter that checks that a bit | 11:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Williamson refuses to rule out government putting London in lockdown by weekend — from WHO at 10:15: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/pNYtBr | 11:21 |
| Jigsy | I still believe the UK could have solved this crisis by making the Coronavirus illegal. | 11:27 |
| Jigsy | (Tongue in cheek.) | 11:27 |
| aradesh | michel barnier has tested positive for COVID19 | 11:30 |
| ubLIX | a natural interpretation of the mooted US buyout of a German pharmaceutical company and subsequent downplaying, is that after the removal of the company's CEO, everyone concerned felt it was diplomatically sensible to frame the whole thing as "all a misunderstanding" | 11:33 |
| python476 | Tesla Joins GM in Offer to Make Ventilators | 11:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:30 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: some London tube stations to close while Hubei reports no new cases — from WHO at 10:30: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 11:45 |
| travelling_sales | I find India's 170 ish cases to be ridiculous | 11:50 |
| travelling_sales | what do you guys think | 11:50 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: it's not entirely implausible | 11:54 |
| travelling_sales | Also they have the lowest testing rates per million | 11:54 |
| tinwhiskers | There's always a few oddities when looking at a lot of countries. The no deaths in Germany thing for so long was surprising | 11:55 |
| travelling_sales | @timw | 11:55 |
| travelling_sales | tinwhiskers: Probably due to their lower average age | 11:56 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: it looks like the early cases were all imports and were contained, and they've only had community spread for two weeks now. The numbers are climbing but haven't taken off. | 11:56 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: nah | 11:56 |
| adventurer | https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/18/does-germany-have-low-coronavirus-death-rate/ | 11:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:50 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Williamson refuses to rule out government putting London in lockdown by weekend — from WHO at 10:50: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/pNYtBr | 11:57 |
| adventurer | damn it says log in to continue reading | 11:57 |
| adventurer | one thing someone from Germany said is they test anyone | 11:58 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: it might be that lack of testing or reporting accounts for the reasonably low numbers in India but I don't see anything to be too suspicious of | 11:58 |
| adventurer | helps to know if you have it to know to stay the heck away from everyone | 11:58 |
| travelling_sales | Nah I dont have symptoms | 11:59 |
| tinwhiskers | Abandoned: yeah, that could explain it | 11:59 |
| tinwhiskers | Erm, adventurer | 11:59 |
| Abandoned | tinwhiskers i just logged in. what are you talking about? | 12:00 |
| tinwhiskers | If you're testing everyone you'll get minor cases as well so proportionally less deaths | 12:00 |
| tinwhiskers | Abandoned: i meant that for adventurer | 12:00 |
| Birosso | Abandoned: Seriously? You're going to be like that? | 12:00 |
| Birosso | Oh, we're not trolling Abandoned? Okay. | 12:00 |
| Birosso | Sorry. I misread the room. | 12:01 |
| travelling_sales | https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/coronavirus-india-preps-for-long-haul-orders-1-million-covid-19-test-kits-from-germany/story-uzbIBigBGQYMy61AOTkIzN.html | 12:01 |
| travelling_sales | Also due to this true cases might be found | 12:01 |
| Abandoned | alrighty then | 12:01 |
| adventurer | that is good news travelling_sales | 12:02 |
| adventurer | sort of | 12:03 |
| adventurer | 1 million isn't a lot when you really think of it though is it | 12:03 |
| doublejay[m] | and germany will just ship tem ? | 12:03 |
| doublejay[m] | them | 12:03 |
| adventurer | i hope they will be ok in India | 12:04 |
| tinwhiskers | Seems like they won't be very well off | 12:05 |
| tinwhiskers | High population density, relatively poor health services. Ouch | 12:05 |
| adventurer | yes I think you are right | 12:06 |
| adventurer | It's a concern | 12:06 |
| adventurer | so many people there | 12:06 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 12:06 |
| adventurer | 1.339 Billion | 12:06 |
| tinwhiskers | Damn. You might expect 10% fatalities without medical care, more or less, if they can manage it. | 12:07 |
| tinwhiskers | *can't manage it | 12:08 |
| travelling_sales | yeah we hope community spread doesn't happen | 12:09 |
| Biep[m] | *Trade wars with China are easy to win* - until they come with a new export product.. | 12:09 |
| Biep[m] | But Trump already goth the US to produce it in their own country too. 👏 | 12:09 |
| tinwhiskers | 70% of Indians are smokers as well! | 12:09 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: community spread has already started | 12:09 |
| travelling_sales | in India ? | 12:10 |
| travelling_sales | source ? | 12:10 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 12:10 |
| contingo | good morning :) | 12:10 |
| tinwhiskers | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India | 12:10 |
| travelling_sales | https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/results-in-no-community-spread-so-far/articleshow/74701355.cms | 12:10 |
| travelling_sales | tinwhiskers | 12:10 |
| python476 | contingo: o/ | 12:11 |
| tinwhiskers | That's a clear picture of community spread | 12:11 |
| tinwhiskers | Hi contingo | 12:11 |
| contingo | are you discussing the covid mega-extravaganza planned in india shortly | 12:11 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah :-/ | 12:11 |
| travelling_sales | what do you mean | 12:11 |
| contingo | the religious festival with 1m+ attendees | 12:12 |
| travelling_sales | I hope they cancel it | 12:12 |
| tinwhiskers | They are so screwed | 12:13 |
| contingo | https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/coronavirus-ayodhya-to-hold-ram-navami-mela-despite-covid-19-fears-814613.html | 12:13 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: I'm extremely sceptical that India doesn't have community spread looking at the time series data. I think it's far more likely they failed to test properly and got all negatives. That data shows community spread. | 12:15 |
| travelling_sales | are you refering to this http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India | 12:16 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 12:16 |
| tinwhiskers | I mean, it's possible that's just very regular imports but that smells fishy | 12:17 |
| travelling_sales | yeah exactly | 12:17 |
| travelling_sales | that's why even I'm worried | 12:17 |
| doublejay[m] | https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/6e54ec836ea04bbab870972472c8099a/?draft=true | 12:19 |
| travelling_sales | but again from this article - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca | 12:19 |
| travelling_sales | "This is an issue: You only know the official cases, not the true ones. But you need to know the true ones. How can you estimate the true ones? It turns out, there’s a couple of ways. And I have a model for both, so you can play with the numbers too (direct link to copy of the model). | 12:19 |
| travelling_sales | First, through deaths. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days)." | 12:19 |
| doublejay[m] | global dash board | 12:19 |
| doublejay[m] | avec bell and whistles | 12:19 |
| doublejay[m] | 176 reported in inda so far | 12:19 |
| travelling_sales | yeah which we are very sceptical of | 12:20 |
| travelling_sales | also there have been cases of failed quaratines | 12:20 |
| doublejay[m] | as of 10:13 | 12:20 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm not skeptical of that | 12:20 |
| doublejay[m] | agree. | 12:20 |
| travelling_sales | like people just running away | 12:20 |
| doublejay[m] | the scale means its difficult to collate and report | 12:20 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm skeptical they say they have no community spread given those figures | 12:20 |
| doublejay[m] | plus, that number could add 2 zeros in no time | 12:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 11:14 UTC: Coronavirus: What next in the UK coronavirus fight?: The UK's plan to tackle coronavirus has been changing. What's the latest and what's happening next? — from WHO at 11:14: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/lke5gu | 12:21 |
| travelling_sales | By sceptical I meant that the true numbers are far higher than the reported ones, because | 12:21 |
| travelling_sales | a) we are not testing enough | 12:21 |
| travelling_sales | b) a lot of people are asymptomatic and they dont get tested | 12:21 |
| doublejay[m] | there was that articles of people spotted with hand stamps IIRC | 12:21 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't think that applies more to India than elsewhere | 12:22 |
| tinwhiskers | Yet | 12:22 |
| tinwhiskers | The numbers are too low for insufficient testing to be a cause | 12:22 |
| Abandoned49 | highest numer of deaths yesterday 973 | 12:23 |
| travelling_sales | https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/india/coronavirus-why-are-people-running-away-from-quarantine-in-india-1.1584360825814 | 12:23 |
| pagetelegram | Where is the study for this? https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/TBWYXOEKWJSyKEXsOmhcBUOD | 12:23 |
| tinwhiskers | I think the India data looks entirely plausible when you look at deaths as well, but I think it's implausible that there is no community spread looking at the curve | 12:24 |
| tinwhiskers | They are about to blow out | 12:24 |
| travelling_sales | yeah I am prepping | 12:24 |
| travelling_sales | any tips ? | 12:24 |
| tinwhiskers | Nothing you haven't heard. Social distancing, wash your hands | 12:25 |
| contingo | where are you based, travelling_sales? | 12:25 |
| travelling_sales | TN | 12:25 |
| travelling_sales | @tin | 12:26 |
| tinwhiskers | Looks like I'm going to take my government's advice and scuttle off home from Tonga asap. Sad really to give up the island. | 12:26 |
| contingo | how are your local supermarkets, pharmacies etc. looking? | 12:27 |
| contingo | sorry to hear, tinwhiskers | 12:27 |
| tinwhiskers | :-( | 12:27 |
| Biep[m] | <contingo "where are you based, travelling_"> He is travelling. | 12:27 |
| travelling_sales | tinwhiskers: I meant buying important stuff before everyone starts panicking | 12:27 |
| tinwhiskers | Just gotta get the dog booked on a flight | 12:27 |
| doublejay[m] | I think China's own data is a bit sketchy too | 12:27 |
| tinwhiskers | He will have two weeks quarantine like us when we return to NZ | 12:27 |
| contingo | maybe it can be temporary | 12:27 |
| tinwhiskers | There's no return | 12:28 |
| doublejay[m] | althought we may not know the full brutality of the lockdown | 12:28 |
| ubLIX | tinwhiskers: there's no return? | 12:28 |
| contingo | I recall as a kid (a very itinerant kid due to my dad working in big oil) pet quarantine in many places was 3 months, 6 months. Some of our cats seemed to spend most of their lives in quarantine | 12:29 |
| tinwhiskers | We can come back for a holiday but my wife won't move back to Tonga to live again, so this is goodbye to the island really | 12:29 |
| contingo | do you own the property there? | 12:29 |
| tinwhiskers | Just a ten year lease | 12:30 |
| ubLIX | sorry to hear that, tinwhiskers | 12:30 |
| tinwhiskers | We won't have a chance to sell everything so I'll come back briefly when this all blows over to sell our stuff (boats, etc) and say goodbye | 12:31 |
| tinwhiskers | Bummer | 12:31 |
| travelling_sales | any predictions on when all this will end ? | 12:31 |
| ubLIX | how brave are you? how far is it from Tonga to NZ? | 12:31 |
| ubLIX | by boat, i mean | 12:32 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, you can sail here in about a week | 12:32 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: about 4-6 months for the "flatten the curve" scenario and much longer for the "suppress" strategy | 12:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:20 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Williamson refuses to rule out government putting London in lockdown by weekend — from WHO at 11:20: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/pNYtBr | 12:33 |
| tinwhiskers | The second strategy just calls for waiting until a vaccine is ready | 12:33 |
| travelling_sales | And most experts say it would take 12 to 18 months | 12:34 |
| tinwhiskers | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/ | 12:34 |
| tinwhiskers | travelling_sales: yeah | 12:34 |
| bigfoot[m] | <travelling_sales "any predictions on when all this"> Spreading of infection will reduce when 67% was infected and got immun. | 12:34 |
| travelling_sales | a la "herd immunity" ? | 12:35 |
| tinwhiskers | The link to the full report is inside that link. See the pdf. This is our best estimates to date. | 12:35 |
| contingo | tinwhiskers have you read this brief critique of that report (i'm at imperial) https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions | 12:35 |
| bigfoot[m] | yeah. SARS-CoV-2 har and spreadrate R0 around 3. Reduce will haben if R0 is lower than 1. | 12:36 |
| bigfoot[m] | haben=happen | 12:36 |
| tinwhiskers | I was thinking of waiting it out here in Tonga but this country could fall to pieces by then | 12:36 |
| tinwhiskers | contingo: no. Thanks | 12:36 |
| travelling_sales | contingo: you mean you study there or are you a researcher ? | 12:37 |
| kreyren_ | as of 20.03.2020 czech republic made it mandatory for it's citizens to wear masks at public places, TV representatives i.e news are also wearing masks to encourage the citizens | 12:37 |
| contingo | I await a formal response to this response but some of my colleagues say it holds merit. I'm not in epidemiology or public health | 12:37 |
| bigfoot[m] | <kreyren_ "as of 20.03.2020 czech republic "> Where should the people buy these mandatory items ? | 12:38 |
| bigfoot[m] | Nearly non available | 12:38 |
| tinwhiskers | contingo: i doubt there will be no resurgence but if border controls remain tight I guess it's possible | 12:39 |
| contingo | I'm researcher in evolutionary genetics, I haven't worked on any viruses since 2006 or so though | 12:39 |
| tinwhiskers | That would be rather nice | 12:39 |
| kreyren_ | bigfoot[m], governments supplies them, czech citizens with vietnamese origin are making them for free and there are tutorials from government to make these masks from common house hold items (minister of health was wearing a mask made out of baby diper for example) | 12:40 |
| tinwhiskers | I guess we'll see how China goes first | 12:40 |
| contingo | basically, every country would have to do that, and remain closed to any country not doing that | 12:40 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 12:40 |
| contingo | if that augmented model is indeed reliable | 12:40 |
| travelling_sales | contingo: what do you think about the condition in India ? | 12:40 |
| tinwhiskers | Makes sense, but I don't think we have our shit together enough to pull it off | 12:41 |
| contingo | we as in globally, or NZ? | 12:41 |
| tinwhiskers | contingo: globally | 12:41 |
| darsie | 36.4. Back to my atypically low temps these days. | 12:42 |
| python476 | anybody here got symptoms btw ? | 12:42 |
| python476 | or are y'all ok ? | 12:42 |
| python476 | I thought I had fever last night but nope | 12:42 |
| tinwhiskers | There will certainly be hotspots until the vaccine is available but perhaps some countries could be quite normal before too long | 12:42 |
| contingo | I'm not sure travelling_sales, but I'm quite aligned with what tinwhiskers was saying | 12:42 |
| darsie | The skin on my knuckles started to fail. I guess due to hand washing. | 12:42 |
| darsie | Got cracks with serum seeping out. | 12:43 |
| darsie | plasma? | 12:43 |
| light | lick it | 12:43 |
| darsie | no | 12:43 |
| light | that was a test, you passed | 12:43 |
| travelling_sales | contingo: sure, thanks ! | 12:43 |
| darsie | :) | 12:43 |
| contingo | I've nursed a nasty cold type sickness this whole month, with no fever, cough or sore throat ¯\_(⊙︿⊙)_/¯ | 12:46 |
| contingo | I'd like a test anyway. I could get one privately for £375 | 12:46 |
| tinwhiskers | Ouch | 12:47 |
| Jigsy | I caught a cold, followed by a chest infection. | 12:47 |
| Jigsy | So if I get COVID, I'm fucked. | 12:47 |
| tinwhiskers | Jigsy: same | 12:47 |
| darsie | I had yellow bacterial slime in my lungs recently. | 12:47 |
| tinwhiskers | It's surprising how many people here are in that situation | 12:47 |
| MrBrave | I am too | 12:48 |
| darsie | I guess that might me staphylococcus aureus. It's aureus, like gold, because of the yellow slime. | 12:48 |
| tinwhiskers | Perhaps it's all the people with underlying health issues that are worried and coming here | 12:48 |
| MrBrave | Yes | 12:48 |
| ubLIX | contingo: the optimistic note in that critique seems to rely on good performance in governance, eg 'simulating their effects is less helpful than the advice to “go all out” and refine the effort over time with improved tracing, testing, and other protocols.'; it is not obvious that there has been anything refined about the majority of the global response. A theoretical path to optimism is valuable and welcome, though. | 12:48 |
| contingo | ubLIX that is how I'd summarize it too yes | 12:49 |
| contingo | waiting to see if Chris Whitty acknowledges it | 12:51 |
| yn | neat, https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/18/sling-tv-rolls-out-free-streaming-to-u-s-consumers-stuck-at-home/ | 12:52 |
| travelling_sales | %data India | 12:52 |
| travelling_sales | is there a bot ? | 12:53 |
| Atque | Jigsy: Stay at home. | 12:56 |
| ubLIX | it's tempting to believe that one trouble with any of Taleb's prosocial expositions is that his statistical sophistication is way of the heads of pretty much everyone. way over mine, anyway. that critique seems pretty tame for something Taleb has touched, compared to his usual fare. | 12:56 |
| Jigsy | For the most part, I do anyway. | 12:56 |
| travelling_sales | <ubLIX "it's tempting to believe that on"> what are you refering to ? | 12:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:50 UTC: Coronavirus live news: EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier tests positive: Hubei reports no new cases while Australia and New Zealand announce border closures and Japan’s deputy PM calls Olympics ‘cursed’ — from WHO at 11:50: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 12:57 |
| Atque | Jigsy: I hope you're okay. | 12:57 |
| Jigsy | I do have to pop out later though. | 12:57 |
| travelling_sales | Jigsy: where are you from | 12:58 |
| Jigsy | The UK. | 12:58 |
| dividediff[m] | Canadians expecting corona will last months https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTxwDaYFO6k&feature=youtu.be&t=3960 | 12:58 |
| ubLIX | travelling_sales: for a correspondence that Taleb has had a hand in, this note (linked by contingo) is argued in a remarkably simple way - https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions | 12:59 |
| dividediff[m] | Even now, i still see tons of posts on reddit of people not understanding corona. Rampant things like ppl saying 'no point in testing now' lots of support for boris's herd immunity approach | 13:00 |
| mefistofeles | hey | 13:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:01 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Italy to extend lockdown, US labor market reels: As of Thursday, more than 219,427 cases of coronavirus have been reported, resulting in at least 8,946 deaths. — from WHO at 12:01: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 13:09 |
| contingo | most of the statistical arguments there all seem within reach, although it might be not be within reach for me to get an authoritative view on the critique of the choice of the "general class of SIR differential equations" | 13:09 |
| contingo | it's just not my field | 13:11 |
| Jigsy | https://www.successlifelounge.com/wheres-waldo-coronavirus-edition-captures-the-essence-of-social-distancing/ | 13:12 |
| contingo | I struggle enough getting an authoritative view of some niche analysis methods I developed myself as a postdoc, that are still used :) | 13:12 |
| ubLIX | a version of code you wrote last year might as well have been written by someone else? | 13:13 |
| contingo | kind of thing | 13:14 |
| contingo | except it was 15 years ago | 13:14 |
| ubLIX | you've probably forgotten more maths than i ever learned | 13:15 |
| Strantrickt[m] | https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw | 13:15 |
| mefistofeles | %title | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: From youtu.be: [LIVE] Coronavirus Pandemic: Real Time Counter, World Map, News - YouTube | 13:16 |
| Strantrickt[m] | %data Turkey | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | Strantrickt[m]: In all areas, Turkey, there are 191 cases, 2 deaths (1.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 01:03Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey for time series data. | 13:16 |
| mefistofeles | contingo: while the SIR model can be useful, it's pretty linear so it doesn't take into account many things, I guess | 13:17 |
| contingo | well ubLIX Newton's Annus Mirabilis was due to him quarantining from plague for a long stretch... maybe we can all have equivalents XD | 13:17 |
| mefistofeles | nah haha | 13:18 |
| mefistofeles | also, boring | 13:18 |
| contingo | lol | 13:18 |
| travelling_sales | Lol even I have to write my thesis | 13:18 |
| mefistofeles | travelling_sales: I am doing the same | 13:19 |
| travelling_sales | on ? | 13:19 |
| mefistofeles | travelling_sales: computational biophysics | 13:19 |
| contingo | I'll probably just end up playing lots of piano, postprocessing past holiday photos, and going slowly more insane | 13:19 |
| mefistofeles | contingo: piano, cool | 13:20 |
| mefistofeles | I have a guitar here that I should start playing eventually, I guess | 13:20 |
| travelling_sales | mefistofeles: sounds very inter-disciplinary ! | 13:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 12:18 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Tra poco Fontana terrà una conferenza stampa sulla Regione Lombardia. — from WHO at 12:18: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/HaCnKx | 13:21 |
| dividediff[m] | Urban dictionary; A virus that does not last very long because it was made in China. | 13:24 |
| Atque | %data Australia | 13:24 |
| Brainstorm | Atque: In all areas, Australia, there are 709 cases, 6 deaths (0.8% of cases), 46 recoveries as of March 19, 12:14Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia for time series data. | 13:24 |
| dividediff[m] | "The 2020 disease that is supposed to make us scared of getting sick but makes us jokingly cough on each other and say" Corona"" | 13:25 |
| dividediff[m] | I'm not saying corona lol | 13:26 |
| dividediff[m] | Urban dictionary says corona can dmg kidneys. It doesn't right? | 13:26 |
| Atque | dividediff[m]: Temporarily for most people I believe. If people have certain medical conditions, it can be long-term. The same goes for lungs. | 13:27 |
| Atque | dividediff[m]: A cold damages the throat, but it heals. The same goes for CORVID-19, but people's responses can vary. | 13:28 |
| dividediff[m] | Atque: what about kidneys? | 13:29 |
| Atque | dividediff[m]: Same goes for most tissues I believe. | 13:30 |
| Atque | dividediff[m]: The message is be careful, but it is unlikely to be permanent in most people (even old people). | 13:30 |
| dividediff[m] | ty. doesn't last very long except in cases of death, then it's permanent | 13:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 12:30 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: In sintesi: La croce rossa cinese è stupita dal numero di persone che sono ancora in giro, sui trasporti e andando al lavoro. Serve una arresto economico totale per fermare il virus, e la gente deve assolutamente rimanere a casa. — from WHO at 12:30: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/lbufRk | 13:33 |
| Atque | dividediff[m]: Death is not an event in life. We do not live to experience death. | 13:38 |
| yn | https://foldingathome.org/2020/03/10/covid19-update/ | 13:39 |
| dividediff[m] | "Boris Johnson has asked Ford, Honda, Rolls Royce and other manufacturers to make ventilators and other health-care equipment." | 13:43 |
| dividediff[m] | "similar moves elsewhere, including in France, where conglomerate LVMH is producing hand sanitizer for hospitals on production lines that previously made Dior and Givenchy luxury perfumes. | 13:44 |
| dividediff[m] | "Dillon’s Small Batch Distiller, a producer of spirits such as rye whisky and gin, started making small bottles of hand sanitizer " | 13:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:41 UTC: Airbnb hosts are upset that the company is refunding travelers but not covering hosts' costs: Airbnb hosts are beginning to feel the impact of the coronavirus pandemic following a change by the company to its cancelation policy that has allowed guests traveling over the next month to receive full refunds on their bookings. → https://is.gd/UjBhhN | 13:45 |
| astraliam[m] | %cases netherlands | 13:48 |
| Brainstorm | astraliam[m]: In all areas, Netherlands, there are 2051 cases, 58 deaths (2.8% of cases), 2 recoveries as of March 19, 12:34Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data. | 13:48 |
| Poon_ | %data vietnam | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | Poon_: In all areas, Vietnam, there are 76 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 19, 10:53Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Vietnam for time series data. | 13:59 |
| Poon_ | %data sweden | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | Poon_: In all areas, Sweden, there are 1331 cases, 10 deaths (0.8% of cases), 16 recoveries as of March 19, 12:48Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 13:59 |
| Poon_ | %data hungary | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | Poon_: In all areas, Hungary, there are 73 cases, 1 deaths (1.4% of cases), 2 recoveries as of March 19, 10:53Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Hungary for time series data. | 13:59 |
| python476 | o/ | 14:00 |
| python476 | Poonhub is free now | 14:00 |
| pagetelegram | third bill passed the senate and house just now. | 14:06 |
| pagetelegram | next sesson 11:30am Monday | 14:06 |
| pagetelegram | https://hackaday.com/2020/03/12/ultimate-medical-hackathon-how-fast-can-we-design-and-deploy-an-open-source-ventilator/ | 14:11 |
| python476 | :) | 14:11 |
| Poon_ | @python476: hmm | 14:14 |
| dividediff[m] | Gamers: perfecting "social distancing" BEFORE it was cool | 14:14 |
| python476 | Poon_: sorry stupid joke :) | 14:16 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: heh | 14:16 |
| dividediff[m] | pagetelegram: nice find | 14:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:10 UTC: 'Community infections could happen any time': Kenya prepares for Covid-19: Africa is one of the last places to be hit by coronavirus, and experts are worried it doesn’t have the resources to cope — from WHO at 13:10: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/gweO7E | 14:21 |
| Poon_ | python476: No problem | 14:24 |
| pagetelegram | Anyone know of a phone app that pings my server and tells me when server becomes unreachable https? I am getting DDOS three times yesterday and I need to keep my server up during this period for resource sharing. | 14:30 |
| EricGrahamMacEac | Victoria, BC, Canada here. I'm not sick, but I'm entering quarantine on the 30th of March, 2020. The situation in Washington State is totally out of control. ☣️ | 14:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:31 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Italy to extend lockdown, US labor market reels: As of Thursday, more than 219,400 cases of coronavirus have been reported, resulting in at least 8,946 deaths. — from WHO at 13:31: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 14:33 |
| AimHere | I took a walk. Edinburgh still have people eating in cafes, restaurants, pubs. Only happy exception was a noodle place that switched to takeout only. Tourists still milling around taking pictures and being tourists. Britain is fucked | 14:36 |
| bin_bash | rip | 14:40 |
| azy | weak people are fucked* | 14:41 |
| Jigsy | Doesn't Edinburgh have a Heroin epidemic? | 14:42 |
| azy | if it does it'll likely be microscopic compared with the unhealthy food epidemic | 14:43 |
| Jigsy | I might be thinking of Glasgow. | 14:43 |
| Jigsy | I'm not sure. | 14:43 |
| Jigsy | I know Scotland has a heroin problem, though. | 14:43 |
| Jigsy | ... | 14:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:42 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: In Iran a person dies every 10 minutes, US unemployment spikes — from WHO at 13:42: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 14:45 |
| pagetelegram | I wrote to congress about the food health issue these last 60+ fucking years | 14:45 |
| pagetelegram | ^ azy | 14:45 |
| pagetelegram | I can send you or anyone interest what I faxed them about the food health; sent about two months ago | 14:46 |
| pagetelegram | * 4 months...hard to keep track of time | 14:46 |
| python476 | the year is 2020 | 14:46 |
| python476 | worldwide pandemic hitting us hard | 14:46 |
| python476 | all the technologies at our hands | 14:47 |
| python476 | the solution: print a piece of paper and write your name on it so we don't fine you | 14:47 |
| azy | yeah im interested by that pagetelegram | 14:47 |
| python476 | o/ | 14:47 |
| azy | glasgow is the place full of wasters Jigsy, Edinburgh is infinitely nicer, and more touristy | 14:48 |
| azy | ppl are dying due to heroin!! it's ruining lives!! brb cant run, hearts gonna give out decades early, giving myself obesity related issues + diseases | 14:49 |
| pagetelegram | azy, et al...https://hand.is/congress/USdisabled.pdf | 14:52 |
| AimHere | Jigsy, Edinburgh used to have a major heroin problem in the eighties and nineties. Hence 'Trainspotting'. Now it's a bit more gentrified, although there was always the gentrified bits | 14:53 |
| Cherenkov | Portuguese Government declared State of Emergency yesterday and, looking from the window, lots of old people still try to go to the coffee and for a walk. Last week, with state of alert, tourists were still overcrowding the night scene in Lisbon | 14:54 |
| bin_bash | wow they're really way too late | 14:55 |
| bin_bash | europe has been the epicenter for weeks. very sad for the elderly in portugal | 14:55 |
| Cherenkov | Old people tend to be stubborn. Europe is the epicenter for weeks, despite we only had 3 confirms deaths until now, next week the numbers will be way higher for sure. | 14:56 |
| python476 | bin_bash: at this point why feel sad. | 14:57 |
| python476 | the whole planet is talking about it | 14:57 |
| AimHere | Today's the day that Italy becomes the world leader in Coronavirus deaths. Go Italy! | 14:58 |
| python476 | AimHere: wait for leaks from china revealing the actual figures | 14:58 |
| AimHere | I suspect China's on the level right now. Germany is my primary suspect for fudged death figures | 14:59 |
| mefistofeles | yes, probably | 15:00 |
| bin_bash | python476: i dont feel sad. the state of things is sad | 15:00 |
| python476 | bin_bash: yeah, just like love | 15:00 |
| bin_bash | wat | 15:00 |
| python476 | nevermind, just joking | 15:00 |
| pagetelegram | My go bags are *ready* on standby | 15:00 |
| mefistofeles | what is Iran doing? they are showing some slowdown | 15:00 |
| python476 | AimHere: I wanted to believe but since China is expelling journalists I really don't think they're not fluffing the data | 15:00 |
| ubLIX | pagetelegram: what are you waiting for? | 15:01 |
| pagetelegram | FEMA evaculations....just in case | 15:01 |
| pagetelegram | I'm in a nursing home and they staff dropping like flies | 15:01 |
| pagetelegram | The package stimulus will encourage the staff to stay quarintined. | 15:02 |
| pagetelegram | Gotta put the big picture together. I have | 15:02 |
| ubLIX | good luck, pagetelegram | 15:03 |
| pagetelegram | Thank you | 15:03 |
| dTal | My theory with China is that they were forced to lift quarantine because food was running out | 15:10 |
| dTal | and inevitably, infection rates pick back up with that | 15:11 |
| dTal | but that will spoil their narrative of "everything under control" | 15:11 |
| Cherenkov | Read somewhere that there were some Chinese people without food at all due to the quarantine. | 15:12 |
| dTal | I fear we will encounter the same Hobson's choice in the West | 15:13 |
| Jigsy | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/zero-prospect-of-london-lockdown-involving-movement-limits-says-no-10 | 15:15 |
| Jigsy | %title | 15:15 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: From www.theguardian.com: 'Zero prospect' of London lockdown involving movement limits, says No 10 | UK news | The Guardian | 15:15 |
| Jigsy | Even though London is the worst effected area in the UK. | 15:15 |
| Jigsy | ... | 15:15 |
| Jigsy | Are The Guardian mining bitcoins or something? | 15:16 |
| Jigsy | Every time I view their website, my CPU spikes up to like, 100%. | 15:16 |
| dunnp | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v1 | 15:17 |
| dunnp | hmm | 15:17 |
| rahiakherajot[m] | %title | 15:18 |
| Brainstorm | rahiakherajot[m]: From www.medrxiv.org: Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility | medRxiv | 15:18 |
| dunnp | "Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility." Group O=protective; Group A=high risk. Thus, COVID19 deaths likely higher in Europe (more A), but less so in Asia/India (more B) or Latin Americans (more O). | 15:19 |
| dunnp | higher OR for A for both getting it and for dying | 15:22 |
| dunnp | and opposite for type O | 15:22 |
| bin_bash | yeah... my mom is A+ which makes me worry. | 15:29 |
| Strantrickt[m] | %data | 15:30 |
| Brainstorm | Strantrickt[m]: Sorry, yeah... my mom is A+ which makes me worry. not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 15:30 |
| bin_bash | lol | 15:30 |
| bin_bash | what | 15:30 |
| Strantrickt[m] | %data Turkey | 15:30 |
| Brainstorm | Strantrickt[m]: In all areas, Turkey, there are 192 cases, 3 deaths (1.6% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 14:18Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey for time series data. | 15:30 |
| Strantrickt[m] | 3 ooopps | 15:30 |
| bin_bash | oh it takes the previous message as the argument | 15:30 |
| bin_bash | %data venezuela | 15:30 |
| Brainstorm | bin_bash: In all areas, Venezuela, there are 36 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of March 19, 02:35Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Venezuela for time series data. | 15:30 |
| bin_bash | lol bullshit | 15:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 14:31 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Matea Gold su Twitter: "NEW: CDC, the top U.S. public health agency, is sidelined during coronavirus pandemic. Until yesterday, no appearances at WH by top CDC folks. No CDC briefings for more than a week. @bylenasun https://t.co/duZTot2DL4" [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/l5OU0I | 15:33 |
| bin_bash | but... the CDC was part of the press conference yesterdat | 15:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:35 UTC: (news): Watch live: New York Gov. Cuomo holds a press conference on the coronavirus outbreak — from WHO at 14:35: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/s73LtB | 15:45 |
| mefistofeles | why is Brainstorm feed so poor now? :P I only see the same CNBC news | 15:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:50 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: police and public health officials to have powers to detain potentially infected people — from WHO at 14:50: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/pNYtBr | 15:57 |
| LjL | The doctors that China sent us have apparently made a tour of Milan and been like "No, this won't do. People mist actually stay home." | 16:03 |
| bin_bash | people in milan are not staying home? | 16:04 |
| LjL | Not enough | 16:06 |
| bin_bash | damn thats not good | 16:07 |
| mefistofeles | you know, west freedom xD | 16:07 |
| mefistofeles | but yeah, not good | 16:07 |
| bin_bash | yeah it's a problem in the US too. i've been trying so hard to convince my mom to stop going out | 16:07 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: do you have a source on that? | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:05 UTC: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo orders 75% of non-essential workforce to stay home as cases surge to 4,152 — from WHO at 15:05: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/KFFApi | 16:09 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: no, tbh, it was reported to me likely from TV but I haven't watched TV news yet | 16:09 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: ok, no problem | 16:10 |
| LjL | Anyway on April 3 the laws are to expire. That'll likely be when they renew it with possible stricter details, although they might hasten that if the Chinese doctors sound worried enough about the present situation I guess | 16:11 |
| LjL | But we've got to eat. The longest queues are outside supermarkets (and they get pretty damned long), we try to order groceries online but the site is nonfunctional most of the day, last time I managed to order only at 3am, and then it was a 15 day delivery time | 16:12 |
| LjL | Either we go full Wuhan with ALL work activities stopping except for the very essentials (a concept that may be interpreted in multiple ways) and we're simply brought standard food packages on a weekly basis... | 16:13 |
| LjL | Or I don't know really, I'm not even sure even a full Wuhan approach can stop it at this point | 16:13 |
| LjL | We are probably going to pass the number of deaths in China today | 16:13 |
| LjL | But the population is only you know, slightly less | 16:14 |
| bin_bash | LjL: youre in italy right | 16:14 |
| mefistofeles | yeah, actually, numbers per population (per 100k or 1M people or so) could be more meaningful now | 16:14 |
| mefistofeles | Italy is around 600 cases per 1M | 16:15 |
| LjL | More than one out of 1k lombards are sick now, and that's with the official numbers which are bound do be an underestimate, sometimes claimed to be 10x or so (I do have a paper for that) | 16:15 |
| mefistofeles | China is around 30 or something around that, if I recall correctly | 16:15 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: yes, data from China claims to be up to 10x more, but we don't really know if China was testing more or less than Italy, so there'salso that big variable | 16:16 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: probably more meaningful to compare Hubei with Lombardy, because in both countries those are still by far the area with the most concentration of disease, despite both countries having it elsewhere too (except under control in China but not in Italy) | 16:16 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: the paper is specifically about Italy | 16:16 |
| LjL | i mean, in a sense if there's 10x the cases, it's good news, it means many people have already gained immunity (hopefully) without also dying | 16:17 |
| LjL | %tr In sintesi: La croce rossa cinese è stupita dal numero di persone che sono ancora in giro, sui trasporti e andando al lavoro. Serve una arresto economico totale per fermare il virus, e la gente deve assolutamente rimanere a casa. | 16:18 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: In summary: The Chinese red cross is amazed by the number of people who are still around, on transport and going to work. A total economic shutdown is needed to stop the virus, and people absolutely have to stay at home. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 16:18 |
| LjL | this is from reddit r/italy's live thread posted earlier | 16:18 |
| LjL | not quite a source maybe | 16:18 |
| LjL | %tr Fontana apre invitando la croce rossa Cinese, che sono sorpresi che ci sono ancora persone in giro e senza maschere. 'Quello che sta succedendo in Italia è quello che è successo a Wuhan 2 mesi fa' | 16:19 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: Fontana opens by inviting the Chinese red cross, who are surprised that there are still people around and without masks. 'What is happening in Italy is what happened in Wuhan 2 months ago' (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 16:19 |
| LjL | "without masks"... if only anyone but China sold us masks. since we don't produce masks. | 16:19 |
| LjL | and also if the WHO hadn't told us masks are useless all along. | 16:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 15:19 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Ryan Struyk su Twitter: "CNN: More than 10,000 people in the United States have tested positive for coronavirus." — from WHO at 15:19: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/lxDIn1 | 16:21 |
| yuriwho | masks are useful for reducing spread from infectious people, respirators should be for front line medical use | 16:21 |
| LjL | also i see this was announced | 16:22 |
| LjL | Italy's lockdown will be prolonged, prime minister says, as death toll spikes and hospitals struggle: Italy's lockdown is set to be extended beyond current end-date of April 3, the country's prime minister has said as Italy's death toll rises at a record rate. | 16:22 |
| LjL | yuriwho, we don't have those *surgical* masks. we just don't. | 16:22 |
| Spec | and front line critical workers who interface with the public to keep them supplied with essentials | 16:22 |
| LjL | we barely have enough of those for frontline medical use, nevermind respirators | 16:22 |
| Spec | but yeah, sad global supply issues | 16:23 |
| yuriwho | LjL: same here in North America | 16:23 |
| LjL | yuriwho, and we don't know who "infectious people" are, and coincidentally, countries where *everyone* is using surgical are having better results. not saying it's just because of that, but they're doing that, and they are surprised we aren't. empirically that means something to me | 16:23 |
| yuriwho | my wife is gonna make some from dense cotton | 16:23 |
| yuriwho | she has a sewing machine and fabrics | 16:24 |
| sneep | So you aren't supposed to re-use masks... But do you think it's okay to re-use them after bathing them in midday sunlight for a while? | 16:25 |
| LjL | yuriwho, my mom has done that already according to some instructions. now whether that'll be useful for anything, i don't know... some of those instructions she found involve "waterproofing" the masks by... adding material in front of the cotton that makes the mask waterproof, but also air-proof. i can see a problem with that. | 16:25 |
| LjL | sneep, it's... an idea, i guess. i'm reusing masks. not much of a choice. | 16:26 |
| LjL | sneep, washing or otherwise disinfecting with liquid seems to be out of the question if you want to keep the filter structure. baking at low temperatures has also been suggested here earlier, but it was just a brainstorming kind of thing | 16:26 |
| LjL | sun sounds like it shouldn't damage the mask at least | 16:27 |
| yuriwho | I’m thinking use 3 layers of cotton fabrics and have a very dilute bleach solution to sterilize them before washing for re-use | 16:27 |
| Spec | yuriwho: for...protection or prevention of spread? | 16:29 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, here's your source on the Chinese doctors thing: https://youtu.be/VV0RC-vOYKM?t=116 you should be able to follow it from translated closed captions at least. the initial speaker is governor Fontana of Lombardy | 16:29 |
| yuriwho | Spec: the latter | 16:29 |
| sneep | Japan's currently got a supply of 600,000,000 masks per month, of which 70% are made in Japan according to a news article I just read | 16:29 |
| Spec | yuriwho: got any wax? | 16:30 |
| yuriwho | I do | 16:30 |
| Spec | i bet a wax/cloth barrier would be more effective than not at stopping the big particles from spreading if you cough/etc | 16:30 |
| LjL | also includes a statement that the doctors are astonished so few people wear masks | 16:30 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: thanks | 16:30 |
| sneep | I know somebody who works at a company that makes the raw material for masks | 16:30 |
| yuriwho | good idea Spec | 16:30 |
| Spec | but yeah, not very effective at spreading | 16:30 |
| Spec | err | 16:30 |
| Spec | at protection* | 16:31 |
| sneep | But unfortunately they just do the filter and have it "assembled" at a different company | 16:31 |
| Spec | it's the sort of thing that everyone has to do though | 16:31 |
| Spec | sneep: nice, what materials? | 16:31 |
| LjL | god, translation from chinese to english and the Fontana translates into italian | 16:31 |
| LjL | ridiculous | 16:31 |
| Spec | i bet tyvek can also be used as a layer for impromptu anti-spread masks | 16:31 |
| LjL | they can't find a chinese to italian translator... IN MILAN? | 16:31 |
| LjL | okay maybe they can | 16:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 15:21 UTC: /u/slakmehl: This is a 10x increase in 9 days. However, it should be noted that much of this growth is likely attributable testing capacity which has only ramped up significantly in the last week. — from WHO at 15:21: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Nx4krT | 16:33 |
| LjL | so many phones ringing lol -.- | 16:33 |
| Spec | woooooo testing | 16:34 |
| LjL | i think he's saying we should door-to-door checking of temperatures (indirectly) | 16:34 |
| Spec | i can't wait until my country joins the first world countries and starts random sample testing | 16:34 |
| LjL | Spec, who is doing random sample testnig so far? | 16:35 |
| Spec | is anyone? | 16:36 |
| Spec | south korea isn't quite doing it yet afaik | 16:36 |
| Spec | LjL: maybe no one is first world country yet | 16:36 |
| slash_ | most first world countries have a huge lack of tests atm | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | slash_: At 2020-03-18 03:46:51 UTC, LjL told you: i guess it's totally fine now https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20200317IPR75103/positive-from-euco-europe-shows-it-is-united-and-ready-to-act | 16:36 |
| sneep | Iceland did random testing | 16:36 |
| AimHere | %data uk | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | AimHere: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 2692 cases, 137 deaths (5.1% of cases), 65 recoveries as of March 19, 15:26Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 16:36 |
| LjL | "I find here in the city of Milan, which is the hardest-hit are, and you are NOT having very strict local policy of the city, because the public transportation is still working, and people are still moving around, and are still having like dinners and parties in the hotels, and you are NOT wearing masks." | 16:37 |
| slash_ | huh well maybe EU can coordinate it.. not sure | 16:37 |
| AimHere | Oh, doesn't say the new cases. Currently, UK measured 66 new cases today, according to worldometers. I'm assuming they've stopped testing | 16:37 |
| sneep | https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15/first-results-of-general-population-screening-about-1-of-icelanders-with-coronavirus/ | 16:37 |
| LjL | slash_, you still believe that? someone showed the ECDC page with "detailed" data yesterday... it's like two months behind | 16:37 |
| slash_ | netherlands only testing hospitalized people, theyre trying to find dutch companies that can produce tests, universities also working on other methods. not gonna be solved soon | 16:38 |
| slash_ | LjL what do you mean? | 16:38 |
| slash_ | LjL lack of tests? | 16:38 |
| LjL | slash_, no, i mean lack of cooperation between countries and the EU, and also probably lack of any real action by the EU | 16:39 |
| LjL | slash_, EU countries are stopping our contracts for masks. China is sending us masks. Italy is going to do what China says now, not what the EU says, that much seems clear | 16:39 |
| LjL | i might like the EU better than China but staying alive has priority | 16:39 |
| slash_ | LjL yeah that isnt good, China is using this to gain a lot of influence in the world | 16:40 |
| slash_ | true | 16:40 |
| slash_ | ofc the help is good I mean, but China does not do "true" charity | 16:40 |
| LjL | well, they are sending us masks, and telling us that *everyone* should wear them, while the WHO is (still?) insisting masks aren't useful for most people | 16:40 |
| AimHere | Who does? | 16:40 |
| LjL | slash_, of course China doesn't. but i'd rather be alive and indebted with China than just dead. | 16:40 |
| Spec | "..., and you are NOT wearing masks." | 16:41 |
| AimHere | Even Mother Theresa used charity as a tool for religious proselytising | 16:41 |
| Spec | but WHO said you didn't need em | 16:41 |
| LjL | slash_, so if for the next few decades Italy (and most likely not just Italy) is going to be a "province of China", i think the EU is certainly a body to blame for that. | 16:41 |
| slash_ | I think they only advise against wearing masks due to simply not enough available | 16:41 |
| slash_ | LjL EU has no authority about healthcare though | 16:41 |
| LjL | slash_, most EU countries have closed their borders, but the EU website doesn't even list any new Schengen suspensions. it's basically like they've given up on the whole thing. | 16:41 |
| LjL | slash_, "authority" is not the only thing that matters. China also doesn't have any "authority" over healthcare in Italy | 16:42 |
| slash_ | LjL whole schengen is closed for outsiders | 16:42 |
| slash_ | but China is a country, EU isnt | 16:42 |
| LjL | slash_, i'm not talking about outsiders, i'm talking about the internal borders | 16:42 |
| slash_ | EU doesnt have stockpiles | 16:42 |
| LjL | yes, those certainly seem like they are problems now. | 16:42 |
| slash_ | they cant send anything | 16:42 |
| mefistofeles | latin american countries already suspending all international flights | 16:42 |
| Spec | slash_: the thing about WHO is governments listen to them | 16:42 |
| LjL | slash_, sure they can | 16:42 |
| Spec | slash_: so if masks are needed and we have a shortage, ALL businesses that are REMOTELY capable of shifting production should seek to do so | 16:43 |
| Spec | instead of saying things like, we don't really need them | 16:43 |
| sneep | I guess this shows that the EU isn't something like the United States of Europe | 16:43 |
| Spec | can't make good decisions with shit info | 16:43 |
| AimHere | Spec, well howahbout shifting production *as well as* saying 'we don't really need them | 16:43 |
| Spec | AimHere: i'm not a fan of lies | 16:43 |
| LjL | slash_, the EU could make a directive that states cannot requisition their production of masks or other things, but instead there must be EU-concerted prioritization, but they aren't doing it. to be fair, if they WERE doing it, countries would likely just ignore the EU at this point. but that is what i'm saying, the EU has become completely irrelevant now. | 16:43 |
| slash_ | EU is just the individual nations, it's not an entity that can demand things like that | 16:43 |
| Spec | AimHere: people *without* masks should know the seriousness of not having a mask and stay the fuck home | 16:43 |
| sneep | The EU government mostly just unifies laws and stuff | 16:44 |
| slash_ | LjL the EU can only do that as a collective, so all nation states, it does not have any means otherwise | 16:44 |
| LjL | slash_, okay, either way, it is not doing it. | 16:44 |
| LjL | the EU was mostly failing before this, now in my eyes, it *has* failed. | 16:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:41 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Impatto ambientale del coronavirus — from WHO at 15:41: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Szbafs | 16:45 |
| LjL | slash_, look at this https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html#tab2 ridiculous | 16:45 |
| LjL | this ought to be the detailed data at an EU level. | 16:45 |
| sneep | The US has lots of variation in state law and political views but it's definitely a single country | 16:45 |
| LjL | true also. | 16:45 |
| LjL | the EU is "a country" in many ways that even the US is not, even though the reverse is obviously also true. and yet, now, it's definitely not behaving line one. | 16:46 |
| Spec | beehaving | 16:46 |
| slash_ | maybe after this the EU will create an functional EU CDC | 16:46 |
| slash_ | right now that does not exist | 16:46 |
| LjL | also, bad news from South Korea | 16:46 |
| LjL | slash_, after this the EU won't meaningfully exist, in my opinion. we'll see though (unless we won't). | 16:47 |
| bin_bash | LjL: yeah agreed, it's sad | 16:47 |
| bin_bash | i honestly wish there was more i could do | 16:47 |
| sneep | One thing that anybody can do is 1) get informed 2) help stop the spread of misinformation 3) encourage people to stay at home | 16:49 |
| slash_ | it's also a bit too easy to blame "the EU", the EU is the nations, so it's a collective failure | 16:49 |
| slash_ | why do the other nations not want to help Italy? | 16:49 |
| mefistofeles | also the EU has always been more about economics than social care or health | 16:49 |
| Spec | LjL: what's the bad news from south korea? | 16:49 |
| LjL | Spec, just look at the non-authoritative graph for today | 16:50 |
| slash_ | Spec they're getting more cases again | 16:50 |
| mefistofeles | they were starting to see some clusters in SK, but yeah LjL , what about it? | 16:50 |
| Spec | oh | 16:50 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, they were on a downward trend. now they're not. | 16:50 |
| Spec | it swang back up | 16:50 |
| LjL | the spike is quite clear | 16:50 |
| Spec | swunged? | 16:50 |
| Spec | :) | 16:50 |
| slash_ | at this rate countries are going to have to be in lockdown for years... | 16:51 |
| slash_ | or until a vaccine | 16:51 |
| Spec | slash_: yes | 16:51 |
| slash_ | we are only at the start globally | 16:51 |
| Spec | seems likely | 16:51 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: I don t think they were, tbh, the cases graph shows that there were a lots of people they weren't testing and were positive, looking at the jump in March 10 | 16:51 |
| LjL | Spec, i think we should stock up for real now... (a bit late, i know) but based on what the governor is saying, after this Chinese doctor talked, i think Lombardy will go its own way even if the central government disagrees | 16:51 |
| mefistofeles | they are still somehow controlling it, mostly linear spread, so far | 16:52 |
| mefistofeles | also, imho | 16:52 |
| AimHere | This doctor's just said he's talking to us the same way he's talking to terminal cancer patients. | 16:52 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, if they're failing to test in SK, with all the widespread drive-through testing, then what's even left to hope for the rest of us i wonder | 16:52 |
| slash_ | it's possible to control, but you basically have to lockdown the entire economy and severely restrict people's movement | 16:52 |
| slash_ | for a very long time | 16:52 |
| sneep | I wonder how well immunity works. Would it work well enough to treat infected people without wearing a bunny suit? | 16:52 |
| bin_bash | i think the jury is still out on immunity | 16:53 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: I mean, they did warned about this, they were seeing some clusters and maybe people were just staying at home and not getting tested (maybe because they already had symptoms?), but they did warn about it a couple of days ago | 16:53 |
| mefistofeles | I hope they can still control it, or else, yeah, very bad news for the rest | 16:53 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, i am a bit more focused about Italy-local news, so sorry if this is really "old news", but i can see it in the graph *now* | 16:53 |
| slash_ | sneep theyre doing lots of bloodtesting in the Netherlands to see if people can build immunity and how much | 16:54 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: no, it's not that, I was just saying that this may jsut be a consequence of what they were already suspecting | 16:54 |
| mefistofeles | no probs | 16:54 |
| mefistofeles | man, it is really hard to do any kind of work like this, tbh | 16:54 |
| slash_ | sneep right now it points to at least short term immunity, but it's unclear how many become immune and how long it lasts | 16:54 |
| sneep | There was another South Korean church in the news a couple days ago, where the pastor(?) held the mistaken belief that salt water clears out the coronavirus, and one of the churchgoers happened to be infected... | 16:55 |
| slash_ | no i think that was from the same organisation | 16:55 |
| slash_ | but still batshit crazy | 16:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:53 UTC: Coronavirus map of the US: latest cases state by state: Coronavirus – live updates What scientists know about how each age group spreads Covid-19 Full coronavirus coverage The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 continues to grow in the US. Mike Pence, the vice-president, is overseeing the US response to the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/reLBRC | 16:57 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, this is the paper about italy estimating many more positives than the official numbers https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.20036103v1 | 17:00 |
| Jigsy | I think the Guardian is going nuts. | 17:05 |
| Jigsy | >400 new updates | 17:05 |
| einka[m] | I think the whole world is going nuts | 17:05 |
| LjL | JulHer[m], updates of the covid thread? | 17:05 |
| LjL | Jigsy, even | 17:06 |
| Jigsy | Was looking at this: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/19/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-london-lockdown-williamson-refuses-to-rule-out-government-putting-london-in-lockdown-by-weekend | 17:06 |
| Jigsy | The number just keeps going up. | 17:06 |
| Jigsy | Ah, it's stuck in a loop. | 17:06 |
| Jigsy | That's why. | 17:06 |
| sneep | > Fast-food chain Leon will turn its restaurants into mini-supermarkets in a bid to ease food concerns caused by panic-buying in the UK, PA Media reports. <-- Good | 17:07 |
| Cherenkov | speaking about south korea, did you read the article about the patient #31? | 17:08 |
| sneep | I'd assume that most people here have | 17:08 |
| RougeR | contingo, | 17:08 |
| sneep | Well, maybe not "the" article but "an" article | 17:08 |
| RougeR | we are up to 8 cases | 17:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:04 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Expert says virus could kill millions, seniors get special shopping hours — from WHO at 16:04: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 17:09 |
| RougeR | ive emailed lots of politicians and healthcare pros, ive posted and created a stir on social media which then got deleted due to "fearmongering" | 17:09 |
| slash_ | patient 31 tl;dr infected bitch doesnt isolate and infects a fuckton of people | 17:09 |
| sneep | Jigsy: "Ipsos MORI says this is the the first positive net rating for a government since July 2010." Lol | 17:09 |
| Cherenkov | Was this one, if I'm not mistaken: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html | 17:11 |
| sneep | Hmm, what if North Korea uses this opportunity to attack | 17:12 |
| Cherenkov | Risky move, they can get the virus but nobody would expect it so, it's a great opportunity | 17:15 |
| sneep | Cherenkov: Pretty good article, I only read about this when the issue was new | 17:16 |
| sneep | I'd* | 17:16 |
| RougeR | why will people not fucking listen | 17:16 |
| RougeR | https://twitter.com/ITVChannelTV/status/1240669072980918272 | 17:16 |
| slash_ | sneep North Korea actually stated that they do not have the virus under control today.. it's pretty unprecedented for them to publicly admit they are failing at something | 17:19 |
| Cherenkov | "let me grab a taxi and go lunch with someone else... and then go to the church before returning to the hospital" | 17:19 |
| sneep | They have the virus? | 17:19 |
| slash_ | yes | 17:19 |
| sneep | Where'd they get it? | 17:19 |
| slash_ | NK sends a lot of workers in their border regions to work in China | 17:19 |
| Cherenkov | Would bet some visitor from China | 17:19 |
| slash_ | so probably from China | 17:20 |
| mefistofeles | there's plenty of traffic between NK and CHina and SK, I'd think | 17:20 |
| sneep | https://www.businessinsider.com/almost-200-north-korean-soldiers-died-coronavirus-2020-3 | 17:20 |
| AimHere | mefistofeles, next to no NK/SK traffic., But China, yes | 17:20 |
| Jigsy | What happens if you're unemployed during this time? | 17:20 |
| slash_ | also lots of illegal smuggling between China/NK | 17:20 |
| Jigsy | People who're employed are getting some kind of magic money, but what about unemployed people? | 17:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:18 UTC: Trump directs FDA to examine whether malaria drug can be used for coronavirus: The novel coronavirus, which is believed to have originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has rapidly spread around the world, infecting more than 219,000 people and killing at least 8,900. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/txSojJ | 17:21 |
| slash_ | NK also seems to have suspended all military movements | 17:21 |
| sneep | Damn, if they have the coronavirus they're in huge trouble | 17:21 |
| Jigsy | Who, NK? | 17:21 |
| slash_ | yeah they are, they even stated they have "failed" in their national newspaper, which is pretty crazy | 17:22 |
| sneep | Yeah. They won't be able to get much help | 17:22 |
| slash_ | failed in containment that is | 17:22 |
| slash_ | sneep usually they do get help with things like lack of food and stuff.. but now the whole world is in trouble, so this time NK might not get any help yeah | 17:23 |
| slash_ | maybe from China, but idk | 17:23 |
| LjL | well North Korea were already severely restricting people's movements all along | 17:23 |
| LjL | so if they've "failed" at keeping them home, not sure how we possibly can | 17:24 |
| Cherenkov | Maybe from China since they already sent help to Italy | 17:24 |
| Tavis_ | Anyone hearing anymore on the Bird flu outbreak thats recently been identified also? | 17:24 |
| Cherenkov | and NK and China have some kind of friendly relation | 17:24 |
| LjL | slash_, i'm hearing now that the Dutch health minister resigned...? | 17:24 |
| slash_ | LjL well only the capital is severely restricted usually, the rest is not that bad | 17:24 |
| sneep | Maybe China's going to help in exchange for Kim literally giving North Korea to China | 17:24 |
| einka[m] | World population: 7.8 billion --COVIOD deaths: 9,000 or 0.000115 percent. So we should lock down the world.... | 17:24 |
| einka[m] | * World population: 7.8 billion --COVID deaths: 9,000 or 0.000115 percent. So we should lock down the world.... | 17:24 |
| slash_ | LjL ohh yes I just read | 17:24 |
| slash_ | LjL yesterday he collapsed due to extreme exhaustion during a 10 hour debate (which is retarded to have in such a time imho) | 17:25 |
| sneep | einka[m]: Unclear what you're trying to say | 17:25 |
| LjL | :( | 17:25 |
| AimHere | einka[m] - 9000 so far. But with a fatality rate of, say, 1% which is conservative, that's 78 million people dying | 17:25 |
| slash_ | LjL also we have 2 health ministers, they each handle different parts of healthcare | 17:25 |
| slash_ | LjL he was responsible for infectious disease control | 17:26 |
| sneep | 10 hour debate... My brother would be the man for the job | 17:26 |
| LjL | slash_, so more like the head of the CDC equivalent, than a health inistry? | 17:26 |
| AimHere | einka[m], The idea is to cut it down to 10 million or so with the lockdowns. | 17:26 |
| einka[m] | What is unlear? Those numbers are fact. Quite clear | 17:27 |
| slash_ | LjL I watched the debate, I felt really bad for him tbh, stupid fucking opposition taking their sweet time to critize his every move. we're in a crisis goddammit, stop wasting time | 17:27 |
| sneep | einka[m]: Well, an uncharitable interpretation of what you said: "We shouldn't lock down because only 0.000115 percent of the world have died" | 17:27 |
| AimHere | einka[m], is it your contention that we wait until 100,000 people die, or 1,000,000 or 10,000,000 people die before stopping people dying? | 17:28 |
| einka[m] | yearly deaths due to TB: over 1.5 million | 17:28 |
| AimHere | einka[m], this is many times the TB death rate, and it's going to swamp hospitals. | 17:29 |
| sneep | Tuberculosis is curable | 17:29 |
| AimHere | In fact it *is* swamping hospitals | 17:29 |
| einka[m] | Fear | 17:29 |
| slash_ | LjL no the equivalent of the CDC would be the RIVM, which is not a ministry. It's 2 ministers in 1 ministry, but they both manage specific parts of it, it's a bit odd | 17:30 |
| slash_ | LjL he does the actual healthcare side, so hospitals, infectious disease etc. the Dutch CDC (RIVM) gives advise on what to do and the minister can implement it | 17:31 |
| sneep | einka[m]: You might have observed that many countries have 0 tuberculosis deaths, because they have put in an effort to control the disease | 17:31 |
| einka[m] | Many times the TB death rate? 1.5 million versus 9,000? Basic math dictates otherwise | 17:32 |
| AimHere | I had a TB vaccination when I was young. I don't have a Covid-19 vaccination | 17:32 |
| slash_ | LjL I didn't even know about how this was all setup before this tbh :P it's a bit confusing | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:26 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: New York cases surge, Trump asks FDA to test malaria drug — from WHO at 16:26: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 17:32 |
| sneep | einka[m]: I've met a couple people like you over the last few days | 17:33 |
| sneep | on IRC/Matrix | 17:33 |
| einka[m] | So there are people who have some brain cells remaining? Dood to know | 17:33 |
| einka[m] | * So there are people who have some brain cells remaining? Good to know | 17:33 |
| LjL | einka[m], this has been studied to some extent by now. even though the percentage of infected may be low at this time, it *will* reach the majority of the population, and it is now clear that you will have a *much* higher death rate than just 1% as soon as your hospitals are overwhelmed. in Italy that's being around 10%, which makes sense partly due to the aging population, but also based on the fact that 10% is the usual number of patients that absolutely | 17:33 |
| LjL | require hospitalization, and likely won't survive without. so, what is 10% of, say, 70%? | 17:33 |
| sneep | einka[m]: I was wondering if you lack an understanding of basic maths actually | 17:34 |
| LjL | a small fraction is sick *now*. we have the ability to predict that a much, much larger fraction will be sick *later* without lockdowns. i think as humanity, we should use this ability to predict that we have. | 17:34 |
| LjL | einka[m], also, absolutely don't start putting in terms like "people who have brain cells remaining". | 17:35 |
| einka[m] | It's clear that basic logic and facts don't have any impact when FEAR is the underlying emotion that drives people. Enjoy the lockdown and dont't think it won't last when this is over.... | 17:35 |
| LjL | this is not a type of discussion i'm going to have. | 17:35 |
| AimHere | "logic and facts". | 17:35 |
| einka[m] | Me either...enjoy your FEAR. | 17:35 |
| LjL | good thing about this channel is many people like that seem to leave of their own accord. makes it easier for me | 17:36 |
| sneep | Wonder if there's a good rebuttal somewhere that I could link to | 17:37 |
| derpadmin | I am not living in fear, but I definitely live at home now | 17:41 |
| bin_bash | idiotic people are idiotic | 17:41 |
| bin_bash | cant fix stupid, sadly | 17:42 |
| Cherenkov | I'm not living in fear but fear for those that are at risk | 17:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:41 UTC: Airbnb hosts are upset that the company is refunding travelers but not covering hosts' costs: Airbnb hosts are beginning to feel the impact of the coronavirus pandemic following a change by the company to its cancelation policy that has allowed guests traveling over the next month to receive full refunds on their bookings. → https://is.gd/UjBhhN | 17:44 |
| yuriwho | Cherenkov: same, my risk is relatively low but I could need hospital support, which may not be available. However, I have close relatives at very high risk. | 17:53 |
| yuriwho | it’s worth taking all precautions to delay getting infected as long as possible to allow the hospitals to deal with the overwhelming influx and for medical treatment to improve as we discover more wrt treatment. | 17:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:53 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: New York cases surge, Trump asks FDA to test malaria drug — from WHO at 16:53: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 17:56 |
| mefistofeles | this is also another reason why researching for not so widespread diseases (such as malaria) can really pay off, of course, other than considering it actually kills thousands of people each year | 18:00 |
| bin_bash | just take a shitload of quinine | 18:01 |
| bin_bash | but malaria is a parasite, so thats interesting actually | 18:01 |
| yuriwho | bin_bash: terrible advice | 18:01 |
| bin_bash | yuriwho: you cant stop me drinking my gin and tonics! | 18:02 |
| LjL | sneep, the link list in the topic has my own rant on how it's "not just a flu". if you can add to it, i can add to it | 18:02 |
| LjL | bin_bash, i can't stop you from doing things but that doesn't mean i can't stop you from giving random medical advice :P let's be careful with that, some people take things at face value | 18:03 |
| bin_bash | wat | 18:03 |
| bin_bash | i was not giving any medical advice at all | 18:03 |
| aradesh | uk deaths up to 137 from 71 in one day! :( | 18:04 |
| LjL | %cases uk | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 2692 cases, 137 deaths (5.1% of cases), 65 recoveries as of March 19, 16:46Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 18:05 |
| LjL | death rate going up? | 18:05 |
| sneep | aradesh: Are there any cases in your county? | 18:06 |
| yuriwho | yea, like everyone will be taking chloroquine now because of Trumps presser. Early data says it may be harmful if used early in the progression of COVID-19 but that clinical data on chloroquine is all anecdotal right now since we have no controlled trial data yet | 18:06 |
| aradesh | sneep: yes i think so | 18:06 |
| sneep | Take care then | 18:06 |
| bin_bash | LjL: my quinine comment was regarding malaria infection, it's still prescribed for that if you're stricken but not as a prophylactic | 18:07 |
| LjL | yuriwho, yeah never underestimate how people may just swallow whatever shit they read "is helpful" without qualifying it | 18:07 |
| python476 | us crossed 10k | 18:07 |
| aradesh | apparently just 7 confirmed cases in my county | 18:07 |
| LjL | bin_bash, fair enough | 18:07 |
| sneep | aradesh: Better be careful anyway | 18:08 |
| sneep | If you need a bag of rice let me know | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:06 UTC: Michael Dell tells spring break video coronavirus skeptics not to apply to work at his companies: Dell was responding to a video from CBS News, which showed a slew of spring breakers who brushed off concerns of COVID-19 and traveled to Florida despite health officials urging people to stay home. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/KPVzKZ | 18:08 |
| sneep | (* That's a joke, I don't think you'll run out of food) | 18:09 |
| aradesh | i have lots of food in my cupboards | 18:09 |
| aradesh | enough for at least 2 or 3 weeks i reckon, though it would be boring. | 18:09 |
| aradesh | maybe not quite that long... but yeah. at least 1-2 weeks | 18:09 |
| sneep | Michael Dell <3 | 18:10 |
| LjL | press conference now | 18:12 |
| LjL | transcribing | 18:12 |
| LjL | Thanks to prof. Villani, the president of the Italian Pediatrics Society | 18:12 |
| LjL | who will focus on coronavirus and children. | 18:12 |
| LjL | We've had questions on that in the past few days, and he'll answer that. | 18:12 |
| LjL | Today we have +415, 4450 recovered | 18:13 |
| LjL | +4380(?) new positives | 18:13 |
| LjL | 2498 of them are in ICU, 8% of the total | 18:13 |
| LjL | we also unfortunately register +427 deaths | 18:13 |
| LjL | We have 5905 volunteers, +1432 compared to yesterday | 18:13 |
| LjL | This is witness to the extraordinary effort of our civil society, I want to thank all the volunteers, and the hospital personnel and the armed and police forces. | 18:14 |
| LjL | We have a total of 655 pre-triage tents, +12 compared to yesterday, those are installed at the entrance of hospitals to avoid contagion inside | 18:14 |
| LjL | 122 tends in the prisons | 18:14 |
| LjL | The "cross" system to transfer patients between regions, today we have 59 transfered, for a total of 22 coronavirus patients and 37 "ordinary" patients. | 18:15 |
| LjL | A couple of pieces of information: about younger people, who are coming back from Erasmus projects mainly to the Fiumicino airport | 18:15 |
| LjL | those will be allowed to move on the national territory | 18:15 |
| KindOne | a | 18:15 |
| LjL | Only ONE relative will be allowed to get them from the airport | 18:15 |
| LjL | They will have to immediately go home to enter self-isolation. | 18:15 |
| LjL | I also want to say that I signed an ordnance a short while ago, which allows having medical prescriptions to simply come in the form of a code, so that citizens won't need to go to their GP to get their prescriptions. | 18:16 |
| LjL | I'll conclude with a request: from many sides we gather that many pets are being abandoned, especially dogs, and this is despicable. There is no transmission being shown possible between dogs and people. | 18:16 |
| LjL | We know the virus can be present in dogs, but that's not a reason to abandon them(?). | 18:17 |
| LjL | I'll now let Prof. Villani speak. | 18:17 |
| LjL | Good evening. Thanks for this opportunity to talk about children: the positive children are just dozens, 300 in the whole of Italy, and for Italian cases the international scenario is confirmed, i.e. there are no fatalities or very serious cases within children. | 18:17 |
| LjL | In managing children at this particular time, we must know this is not a pediatric issue. When and if a child show symptoms, if they are mild, after consulting with the pediatrician, you should decide what to do, but the criterion to worry is the same as before we had coronavirus: if a child shows important problems, they must be brought to the hospital, but otherwise, there is no reason to worry. | 18:18 |
| LjL | Now we'll take questions. | 18:18 |
| Biep[m] | <LjL "slash_, most EU countries have c"> The Dutch-German border is open. I live a few hundred meters from it, and cross it almost daily. | 18:18 |
| LjL | Meanwhile, thanks to our sign language translator. | 18:19 |
| LjL | Question: [inaudible] | 18:19 |
| slash_ | Biep[m] Dutch government only closed border for outside EU connections | 18:19 |
| LjL | ... I wonder if this is seen as a defeat, and despite the heroism of the healthcare system, we've been caught off guard, or is it the age of the Italian population? | 18:19 |
| LjL | Second question, today we have many more new cases: is this a sign the measures didn't work? | 18:19 |
| slash_ | stricter measures are very likely to come soon | 18:19 |
| Biep[m] | <slash_ "Biep Dutch government only close"> True, but I understand Germany closed borders with Poland, France, and a series of other countries. | 18:20 |
| slash_ | LjL might be significantly worse otherwise | 18:20 |
| LjL | Answer: thanks for the question, which lets me highlight how good the healthcare system is here: there is a definition of cause of death that lets us diagnose accurately. It's also well known, as a positive fact in our healthcare system, that we can obtain some data that few other countries have available. It's also a matter of diagnostic accuracy: this is a serious virus that concerns mainly vulnerable people. | 18:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:15 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: New York cases surge, Trump leans toward banning buybacks for bailouts — from WHO at 17:15: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 18:21 |
| LjL | In this period we do our best to determine whether a fatality was positive or not to the virus. | 18:21 |
| slash_ | Biep[m] yes that is correct, we need to close here very soon, Luxemburg as well (they have a lot of cases for their pop) | 18:21 |
| LjL | Look, internationally, everybody is imitating our model. After initial perplexities, all the countries are getting oriented towards "the Italian model", and we can be proud of that. | 18:21 |
| slash_ | Biep[m] only goods should pass through border imho, no people at all | 18:22 |
| LjL | About the peak... there's certainly a curve, thanks to the ISS which I think, that we monitor very well. Clearly we have data that lets us be up to date; they are important data that we observe, and we need time to evaluate the peak. What we can say with certainty is that the measures taken guarantee obtaining the results we wish for, as long as citizens strictly respect the rules. | 18:22 |
| LjL | Not leaving home except for important reasons, respect distance, wash your hands... Italy will get past this challenge. | 18:22 |
| LjL | Question: I'd like to ask Dr Borrelli, which measures for healthcare are being taken in the centers that gather migrants? Many of those realities are very crowded. | 18:23 |
| LjL | Borrelli answers: they are much less crowded currently than at other times previously. The Immigration Department had a prevention attitude from the start: there are measures that guarantee social distancing, with a set of cautionary rules, I was talking about it just yesterday with the head of the department. | 18:24 |
| LjL | Question: so there have been no clusters or emergencies in those places? | 18:24 |
| LjL | Answer: no, I have no knowledge of such cases. | 18:24 |
| LjL | Question: What about the migrants outside of those centers, there are about 50k people estimated to be homeless. There are many police reports for people who leave their homes, but what about them? What solutions are being adopted? | 18:25 |
| LjL | Borrelli answers: places for homeless people must be created, I said this from the start. They must be created by the municipalities and by the regions, I've talked about it with the mayor of Rome, Raggi, and they are working with the social services to find places to host those people, especially those who need self-isolation. | 18:25 |
| LjL | We can also requisition or simply acquire hotel structures from local realities, which will be reimbursed later. | 18:26 |
| LjL | We definitely must plan for assistance to these people. | 18:26 |
| AimHere | For tourist zones, all those buy-to-let properties could be commandeered, now that tourists are staying away and AirBnB properietors are desperate | 18:26 |
| LjL | Question: About technical equipment, and gloves in particular, can you clarify, since there was a statement today: doctors say that protection by gloves isn't practically helpful, as gloves get reused and they end up using dirty gloves. | 18:27 |
| LjL | Answer: Let me be clear on all of the PPEs, gloves and not. Everyone has understood we are living an extraordinary time of emergency, and we beg the population to only use PPEs when really necessary. They must be prioritized towards doctors and nurses, and you all know how hard they are to acquire. | 18:27 |
| LjL | First, keep them to people who need them. | 18:28 |
| LjL | Second, use them as required: reusing gloves is stupid, and using masks when not needed also. | 18:28 |
| LjL | We are all making efforts to obtain materials which are extremely hard to obtain, so it must be used intelligently. | 18:28 |
| LjL | Question: About the statements by Fontana, who asks for doctors from less burdened regions than Lombardy...? | 18:29 |
| LjL | Answer: we are making plans to support Lombardy, and you will see there will be developments in the coming hours, which will be communicated to you soon. | 18:29 |
| LjL | Question: Zaia, in Veneto, had a private printer "print" some tens of thousands masks, which come with "Veneto" written on them. Are these masks actual PPEs, really useful and protective, or since they are printed by a private printer, which usually prints books, are they to be considered unhelpful? | 18:30 |
| LjL | Where are we with masks? The decree has been signed, but many loads of them are stuck at Customs. | 18:30 |
| LjL | There is a distinction to be made between surgical masks and FFP2/3 masks, which must be used by healthcare workers. | 18:30 |
| LjL | Then there are other types of masks, which are useful to avoid droplet diffusion... the decree that was signed the other day allows for producing and using masks that limit droplet diffusion, but are not fit for the purposes of healthcare workers. They are usable by the general public, but if they are, distance must still be respected. It's just a small addition compared to wearing nothing. | 18:31 |
| LjL | [inaudible] | 18:32 |
| Spec | nice | 18:32 |
| LjL | Yes, I am in contact with the head of Customs about this: if we find masks that are stuck at Customs, obviously they cannot remain there. If they have to go to hospitals or nursing homes, they must be sent there immediately. | 18:32 |
| Spec | did they try bribing customs? | 18:32 |
| LjL | If they are for other uses, then they will be evaluated on a case by case basis, and if necessary, we will requisition them. | 18:32 |
| LjL | Some lots have already been requisitioned, especially for Lombard hospitals. | 18:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:30 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson says country can 'turn the tide' in 12 weeks — from WHO at 17:30: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/pNYtBr | 18:33 |
| LjL | Question: On tests, prof. Rezza said some days ago that some regions are undertesting: can the civil protection department, with the "cross" system, help the regions that are having difficulties with this? | 18:33 |
| LjL | Yes, we bought 390000 tests that are being distributed to all regions. | 18:34 |
| LjL | We'll buy more if they prove to be needed. | 18:34 |
| LjL | Question: I'd like to ask a question about shortages on drugs, which AIFA also reported: are you aware whether hospitals are starting to lack medicine stocks, and if so, how can that be remedied? | 18:34 |
| LjL | Answer: we don't have any explicit data on this, but it's undeniably a complex emergency, and COVID is not the only disease around, clearly people still get sick from other diseases. We have the utmost attention and are doing what we can. | 18:35 |
| LjL | Question: [inaudible] | 18:35 |
| LjL | Sure, the AIFA website is witness to the fact this issue is being cared about, individually and as a whole. | 18:35 |
| LjL | It goes the same as for PPEs: they must be used carefully and with the utmost care, only when needed. The guidelines must be followed, including protocols for assisting COVID patients, what we must attempt to do is to follow AIFA directions. | 18:35 |
| LjL | Question: In particular, since we had a go-ahead on experimenting the anti-rheumatoid medication on 130 patients, and now this experimentation is also taking place in Spallanzani, but they are complaining that they cannot start experimenting if they do not HAVE the drug. | 18:36 |
| LjL | Answer: look, clearly there are times to solve this, we hope they will be the shortest possbile. | 18:36 |
| LjL | Before ending the press conference, let me thank all of the pediatricians who assist children. | 18:37 |
| LjL | Thanks | 18:37 |
| LjL | --- end | 18:37 |
| LjL | they're getting more and more flippant about "we do what we can, what the hell" | 18:37 |
| LjL | and my translations are getting more literal | 18:37 |
| LjL | also i think i got disconnected for a fair amount of time while transcribing | 18:37 |
| LjL | okay, this is the full transcription https://dpaste.org/ba08 | 18:39 |
| yuriwho | ty LjL | 18:40 |
| oxalis | So no ibuprofen? | 18:42 |
| aradesh | italy's death toll has now passed china's. | 18:43 |
| LjL | hurray. | 18:43 |
| aradesh | 3,405 :/ | 18:43 |
| Spec | U.S. infected zombies went to over 9000 | 18:44 |
| bin_bash | china's reported numbers***** | 18:44 |
| bin_bash | there are likely hundreds (maybe thousands) more than were not attributed correctly | 18:44 |
| AimHere | Spec, 11350 is what I'm seeing | 18:44 |
| derpadmin | if 70% to 90% are asymptomatic, it is much worst, yes | 18:44 |
| tobiasheldt[m] | Sources please | 18:44 |
| oxalis | What are US Infected zombies? | 18:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:41 UTC: US coronavirus cases surpass 10,000, doubling in two days: The number of confirmed U.S. COVID-19 cases surpassed 10,000, doubling over two days as states ramp up testing and the coronavirus sweeps across the country. — from WHO at 17:41: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/phEoMv | 18:45 |
| AimHere | derpadmin, the silver lining with that kind of incidence if asymptomatic folks is that it means the death rate is lower than current estimates | 18:45 |
| oxalis | Question: considered how badly the current US administration has botched this thing, can the CDC even be trusted? | 18:46 |
| zirpu[m] | yes, because they are trained for this. the administration is not trained for much of anything other than grasping at the perception of power. | 18:47 |
| derpadmin | AimHere : true, but it also means the propagation could be much worst | 18:48 |
| AimHere | derpadmin, yeah. That's the cloud! | 18:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | wait | 18:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | this one is different from #coronavirus? | 18:48 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 18:48 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 41035 cases, 3405 deaths (8.3% of cases), 4440 recoveries as of March 19, 17:34Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 18:48 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], no, it's a different name for the same channel but in a parallel dimension | 18:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | KindOne, this shit yours? | 18:49 |
| KindOne | [itchyjunk]: no. | 18:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | whose is it? | 18:49 |
| LjL | i run this channel | 18:49 |
| LjL | what's the issue? | 18:49 |
| AimHere | #coronavirus is in the '#' namespace? Is that the official channel of the viral central command? | 18:49 |
| docwon | speak ye not the name of the heretic channel [itchyjunk] | 18:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | damn, this channel is infested with physicists i see | 18:50 |
| LjL | I don't usually mention other channels here, or this channel elsewhere, unless it's clearly relevant, FWIW. | 18:50 |
| docwon | AimHere, yeah it's run by the bats that engineered the virus | 18:50 |
| [itchyjunk] | docwon, has LHC put the virus in partical accelerator and what not? | 18:51 |
| [itchyjunk] | would it work? | 18:51 |
| mefistofeles | AimHere: it's not an official channel and it'sclearly in the wrong namespace, this was already noticed to freenode staff, fwiw | 18:51 |
| docwon | [itchyjunk], the accelerators complex has been shut down since december 2018 | 18:51 |
| [itchyjunk] | oh | 18:51 |
| [itchyjunk] | what happened? | 18:51 |
| docwon | long shutdown 2 | 18:52 |
| mefistofeles | [itchyjunk]: I think that these experiemnts are actually shut down | 18:52 |
| AimHere | Firing a particle accelerator at a covid-19 molecule would kill the virus, but it's not a practical therapeutic remedy | 18:52 |
| bin_bash | lol what would even be the poinf | 18:52 |
| docwon | the restart is meant to be next year, but it's definitely going to be postponed | 18:52 |
| bin_bash | just waste billions of dollars | 18:52 |
| pagetelegram | My post on another very important issue that people too stupid to consider: https://i.imgur.com/bWZZvpJ.png | 18:52 |
| [itchyjunk] | produce new particles by colliding viruses | 18:52 |
| docwon | you can probably study protein structure using synchrotron light, idk | 18:53 |
| [itchyjunk] | bin_bash, rather shoot viruses in particle accelerator than bail out boeing with $60B | 18:53 |
| bin_bash | how about neither | 18:53 |
| bin_bash | imo to bailout boeing would require huge restructuring and a requirement to not outsource, but that would never happen sadly. too much cronyism | 18:53 |
| mefistofeles | Colombia entering in health emergency mode, with only 100 cases | 18:53 |
| mefistofeles | "only" | 18:54 |
| docwon | [itchyjunk], there was a "internal press conference" type thing at CERN on tuesday where they announce they had moved to "stage 3" and are shutting down | 18:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | :O whats stage 3? | 18:54 |
| LjL | docwon, for the avoidance of doubt, i have nothing against that channel. but i'd say common courtesy dictates you don't storm in and say "is this different from ##XYZ?!?", just that | 18:54 |
| mefistofeles | lol | 18:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.988345v1 | 18:55 |
| mefistofeles | %title | 18:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | looks like CoV-2 attaches to other receptors | 18:55 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: From www.biorxiv.org: SARS-CoV-2 invades host cells via a novel route: CD147-spike protein | bioRxiv | 18:55 |
| mefistofeles | oooh, interesting | 18:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | might have some impact in vaccines | 18:55 |
| docwon | [itchyjunk], stage 3 is only keeping essential personnel on site (fire brigade, security etc) | 18:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | because they are all focusing on spike proteins binding with ACE-2 | 18:55 |
| docwon | it is triggered by "Stage 3 - The virus circulates widely in the area in which CERN is located, including at CERN itself" | 18:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | ah, fire the physicists and keep the fire brigade and securit | 18:56 |
| docwon | no one is fired | 18:56 |
| docwon | but everyone has to work from home | 18:56 |
| [itchyjunk] | ah | 18:56 |
| Spec | [itchyjunk]: if true, that's a decent discovery | 18:56 |
| [itchyjunk] | fire brigade is that important | 18:56 |
| [itchyjunk] | ? | 18:56 |
| [itchyjunk] | how often does the stuff catch fire? | 18:56 |
| docwon | eh, once in a while | 18:56 |
| [itchyjunk] | Spec, its really important yes | 18:56 |
| [itchyjunk] | because ACE-2 is found all over the body | 18:57 |
| [itchyjunk] | like my testis | 18:57 |
| Spec | fire brigades respond to many different types of emergencies | 18:57 |
| [itchyjunk] | i dont want a vaccine clogging up my testis | 18:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:52 UTC: Italy's death toll from the coronavirus overtakes China's: The number of people who have died from the coronavirus in Italy has hit 3,405, according to Reuters. — from WHO at 17:52: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/93zGOJ | 18:57 |
| docwon | they're trained in radiation safety and stuff which the local fire brigade are not | 18:57 |
| [itchyjunk] | like what type of emergency? | 18:57 |
| [itchyjunk] | oh its a special fire bridget then | 18:57 |
| docwon | yes | 18:57 |
| [itchyjunk] | I hear bat soup can cure c19. | 18:58 |
| docwon | this is from about a year ago https://i.imgur.com/L9txyh2.jpg | 18:58 |
| [itchyjunk] | Total new cases in Italy is going down though right? | 18:58 |
| [itchyjunk] | oh ohh | 18:59 |
| AimHere | Hell no | 18:59 |
| azy | you mean not going up as fast | 18:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | azy, means the same thing. | 18:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | AimHere, it's not? i heard it was. | 18:59 |
| AimHere | +5k | 18:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | New cases in China is supposidly single digits now | 18:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | oh its +5k a day still? I heard wrong then | 19:00 |
| bin_bash | that's not at all the same thing... the number of cases are still going up, just not going up as rapidly. | 19:00 |
| [itchyjunk] | okay, the "rate" is decreasing. | 19:00 |
| docwon | it's tending towards linear rather than exponential | 19:00 |
| docwon | the inflection point of the S-curve | 19:00 |
| [itchyjunk] | oh going way down then | 19:01 |
| AimHere | It's not the biggest new cases rise in Italy, but the previous one was where almost no new cases were reported one day, and so they played catchup the next | 19:01 |
| [itchyjunk] | ah | 19:01 |
| azy | https://youtu.be/C-0Es0RKiU4 | 19:01 |
| azy | dr john campbell 19th march video | 19:01 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], the rate in Italy is not decreasing. today and yesterday there was an increasing trend. today the *deaths* are decreasing, if that counts for anything. | 19:01 |
| [itchyjunk] | so how long will china have to stay vigilant for back infection ? | 19:01 |
| AimHere | Doctor Campbell is my new youtube guru | 19:01 |
| [itchyjunk] | till there is vaccine? | 19:01 |
| LjL | yes, i'd say till there is a vaccine | 19:02 |
| [itchyjunk] | well, docwon claims a sigmoid curve | 19:02 |
| [itchyjunk] | instead of exponential | 19:02 |
| docwon | if you have a lockdown yes | 19:02 |
| oxalis | How easy is it to reacquire the disease? | 19:02 |
| AimHere | oxalis, it's not clear it's possible at all yet | 19:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | define reacquire | 19:03 |
| oxalis | Are no antibodies created in the body during infec? | 19:03 |
| python476 | a little thread from a guy in Hubei https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fl3zv6/wuhan_will_need_14_days_without_new_cases_to/fkxy00m/?context=3 | 19:03 |
| AimHere | There are reported cases, but there's scepticism | 19:03 |
| docwon | [itchyjunk], it will also be sigmoid if you have uncontrolled growth... just it will plateau near 100% infection rate | 19:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | but it would decay at that point | 19:03 |
| oxalis | Getting covad19 twice. | 19:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | at some point, there just isn't enough humans to keep it exponential | 19:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | oxalis, herpes can cause chicken pox once and shingles later on | 19:04 |
| [itchyjunk] | is that no re infection then? | 19:04 |
| [itchyjunk] | same virus , different disease. | 19:04 |
| LjL | oxalis, yes, antibodies are created, although there are reports of possible re-infection anyway | 19:04 |
| [itchyjunk] | since covid-19 is the name of the disease. | 19:04 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], it's not reinfection in those cases, it's the virus re-activating, afaik, but those are virus that never get completely out of your system. so far we have no clear indication that this virus does that | 19:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | that's called reinfection, though. | 19:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | if your body supresses it so you show a negative in a test and later is surges up, thats also called reinfection | 19:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | its an umbrella term and captures a lot of concepts | 19:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | if it mutates enough that your previously aquired immunity doesn't work against it, its not a reinfection | 19:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | its said that you have been infected by a new strain of the same virus | 19:06 |
| oxalis | This is too anxiety inducing. | 19:07 |
| sandro_ | %data germany | 19:07 |
| Brainstorm | sandro_: In all areas, Germany, there are 14544 cases, 43 deaths (0.3% of cases), 113 recoveries as of March 19, 18:00Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 19:07 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], i call it a relapse, i've never heard it being called a reinfection | 19:07 |
| [itchyjunk] | oxalis, don't worry. if it gets too bad, they will bail you out. | 19:07 |
| LjL | but it's a matter of definitions i guess. | 19:07 |
| Spec | oxalis: take a deeeeep breath and carry on | 19:07 |
| [itchyjunk] | relapse is generally used for the disease | 19:07 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], reactivation then | 19:09 |
| LjL | "reinfection" just carries a strong connotation of the virus entering your body *again*, for me | 19:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | not how its used in virology as far as i can tell | 19:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | but i am no virologist. | 19:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | reactivation might be lytic cycle | 19:10 |
| [itchyjunk] | dormancy might be lysogenic cycle | 19:10 |
| python476 | hey [itchyjunk] | 19:11 |
| bin_bash | is there any new data about reinfection? | 19:11 |
| bin_bash | last i saw it was only out of china and that couldve been caused by testing issues early on | 19:12 |
| [itchyjunk] | hello python476 | 19:12 |
| [itchyjunk] | Only rumors. | 19:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | Few from Japan, few from China. | 19:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | But hard to tell. | 19:13 |
| LjL | %cases Lombardia | 19:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Lombardia, Italy, there are 19884 cases, 2168 deaths (10.9% of cases), 3778 recoveries as of March 19, 16:00Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardia for time series data. | 19:13 |
| LjL | %cases Italy | 19:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 41035 cases, 3405 deaths (8.3% of cases), 4440 recoveries as of March 19, 17:43Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 19:13 |
| LjL | Spec, so, we have about half the cases in the country, now let me grab the paper | 19:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | Like the cross infection from human to dog seems to check out. | 19:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:11 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Italy death toll overtakes China's, 25 million jobs at risk — from WHO at 18:11: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 19:14 |
| LjL | Spec, okay the paper is actually by region, and it estimates a minimum of 38000 infections in Lombardy and a maximum of 50000, this being like two days ago | 19:14 |
| LjL | Lombardy has 10 million people | 19:15 |
| LjL | %wa 45000/10000000 | 19:15 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (45000/10000000): Decimal form: 0.0045 → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=45000%2F10000000 | 19:15 |
| LjL | this is the mean | 19:15 |
| Spec | not so bad yet | 19:15 |
| LjL | Spec, well it means 4 out of 1000 people have it. now the chance of getting it, i have no idea, the R0 could be all over the place, i still personally think you're going to get it just fine by airborne transmission | 19:16 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/quarantine-cat-disinfect-dog-latest-advice-about-coronavirus-and-your-pets | 19:16 |
| Spec | LjL: i think outdoors it's less risky by far, but indoors w/ an infected person i've seen ~3 hour reports | 19:17 |
| Spec | LjL: so first at the store in the morning assuming the crew workign isn't sick is lowest risk | 19:17 |
| Spec | good for elderly | 19:17 |
| LjL | Spec, yes, stores re the risky places, and also, if someone in our building gets it, well... we get it, i think | 19:17 |
| Spec | no | 19:17 |
| Spec | do you have shared ventillation? | 19:17 |
| AimHere | They'll have shared door access | 19:18 |
| Spec | keep some windows open, getoutside air in | 19:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | they do that alreay here in some stores. 7-9 am for 60+ only | 19:18 |
| LjL | Spec, no, but i'm again assuming airborne transmission with stuff staying around in the air for hours | 19:18 |
| Spec | LjL: yeah, for hours | 19:18 |
| AimHere | It's probably not airborne access, unless you're indoor in a poorly ventilated place | 19:18 |
| Spec | LjL: but as it floats away it dissipitates in viral load/etc, and if you mix in outside air... | 19:18 |
| LjL | Spec, well, we don't take the elevator anymore, but i'm not sure that is enough to help | 19:18 |
| AimHere | *airborne transmission | 19:18 |
| Spec | yeah, what AimHere says | 19:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | well, its mostly in droplets | 19:18 |
| LjL | AimHere, indoors in a poorly ventilated place... like a building's hall, or pianerottolo? | 19:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | if the droplets dry out, the load is way less. | 19:19 |
| LjL | which i can't even translate properly to an english word | 19:19 |
| contingo | a "landing" | 19:19 |
| Spec | LjL: when you leave your apartment...on the way down...yeah, there will be some risk without respirator | 19:19 |
| Spec | sick people need to be identified and isolated w/ other sick people in hotels/camps/etc, i suspect | 19:20 |
| LjL | contingo, right, i've heard of that word now you remind me. but i think apartment buildings in the US tend to look very different, with corridors and several apartment entrance doors at each floor. we have just a squareish landing room with 3 or 4 apartments at most, usually | 19:20 |
| Spec | LjL: i don't think it's super high though, depending on the actions of your neighbours | 19:20 |
| LjL | Spec, want an example of our neighbors? last time i went out, there was definitely a strong smell of chlorine in the hall, and i was thankful for that. but someone else, instead, went to the doorkeeper to complain the smell was too strong. now the doorkeeper's using alcohol instead | 19:21 |
| AimHere | LjL, landings here in the UK tend to be more like what LjL is describing, so 'landing' would work | 19:21 |
| Spec | LjL: well, alcohol and chlorine are both good, :) | 19:21 |
| LjL | Spec, yes, hopefully alcohol will do, but i am pointing out the general idiocy. | 19:21 |
| docwon | aren't landings only at the tops of staircases? | 19:22 |
| LjL | docwon, i find a lot of this "building" terminology changes a LOT among the various english-speaking places | 19:22 |
| AimHere | docwon, well I tend to think of them as the 'midpoints' of staircases. Where there's stairs leading both up and down from them | 19:22 |
| docwon | yeah, you never hear "tenement" outside of scotland | 19:23 |
| pwr22 | <docwon "aren't landings only at the tops"> I think so | 19:23 |
| sneep | or when you listen to the sound of silence | 19:24 |
| tinwhiskers | You don't hear "Whit's fur ye'll no go past ye" outside Scotland much either, fwiw. | 19:25 |
| LjL | sneep, heh | 19:25 |
| yuriwho | awck aye | 19:26 |
| kungflu | italy now has more confirmed covid deaths than china | 19:26 |
| tinwhiskers | Ouch | 19:26 |
| kungflu | poor italy, they're being devastated. | 19:26 |
| pwr22 | !cases italy | 19:26 |
| CovBot | In Italy there have been a total of 41,035 cases as of 2020-03-19 17:43:03 UTC. Of these 33,190 (80.9%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 4,440 (10.8%) have definitely recovered and 3,405 (8.3%) have died. | 19:26 |
| pwr22 | !cases china | 19:26 |
| CovBot | In China there have been a total of 81,155 cases as of 2020-03-11 02:18:14 UTC. Of these 7,371 (9.1%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 70,535 (86.9%) have definitely recovered and 3,249 (4.0%) have died. | 19:26 |
| pwr22 | ☹︎ | 19:26 |
| Cherenkov | !cases spain | 19:27 |
| docwon | "outwith" was a word i'd never heard before moving to scotland | 19:27 |
| CovBot | In Spain there have been a total of 17,395 cases as of 2020-03-19 14:53:05 UTC. Of these 15,485 (89.0%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 1,107 (6.4%) have definitely recovered and 803 (4.6%) have died. | 19:27 |
| docwon | it's the opposite of "within", but "without" already means something else | 19:27 |
| Cherenkov | !cases portugal | 19:27 |
| CovBot | In Portugal there have been a total of 785 cases as of 2020-03-19 18:00:00 UTC. Of these 778 (99.1%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 4 (0.5%) have definitely recovered and 3 (0.4%) have died. | 19:27 |
| Cherenkov | !cases UK | 19:29 |
| CovBot | In United Kingdom there have been a total of 2,692 cases as of 2020-03-19 18:00:00 UTC. Of these 2,490 (92.5%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 65 (2.4%) have definitely recovered and 137 (5.1%) have died. | 19:29 |
| Cherenkov | !cases italy | 19:29 |
| CovBot | In Italy there have been a total of 41,035 cases as of 2020-03-19 17:43:03 UTC. Of these 33,190 (80.9%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 4,440 (10.8%) have definitely recovered and 3,405 (8.3%) have died. | 19:29 |
| pwr22 | Cherenkov: might be better to direct message the bot if you want to query a lot of places to avoid flooding the channel 🙂 | 19:30 |
| LjL | Cherenkov, please don't use it so often, if you want to compare, use offloop.net (see topic) | 19:30 |
| LjL | r that | 19:30 |
| LjL | or* | 19:30 |
| Cherenkov | Sorry about that, will do it from now on | 19:30 |
| LjL | pwr22, could you maybe add a link to the site? or just "see topic for comparisons", something like that? | 19:31 |
| Cherenkov | And thanks for all the information :) | 19:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:26 UTC: (news): Boris Johnson says the UK can turn the tide against coronavirus within 12 weeks — from WHO at 18:26: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/40LCFW | 19:31 |
| LjL | also i should most likely update the matrix topic | 19:31 |
| LjL | bit of a pain that the bridge doesn't... bridge it | 19:31 |
| python476 | jhu placed italy #1.. yay.. | 19:32 |
| pwr22 | <LjL "bit of a pain that the bridge do"> I heard somewhere it won't bridge kicks either | 19:33 |
| pwr22 | I've been meaning to test that | 19:33 |
| LjL | python476, Spec: ITALY #1! ITALY #1! | 19:33 |
| python476 | rai uno rai uno | 19:33 |
| LjL | pwr22, i kicked someone and it bridged it, but i don't remember in which direction. i muted someone on IRC and nothing showed up on Matrix, but i think they were effectively muted anyway | 19:33 |
| pwr22 | <LjL "Peter Roberts, could you maybe a"> Yeah I can add that to the help and source commands | 19:33 |
| pwr22 | I'm going to implement rate limiting per room in the bot too | 19:33 |
| LjL | pwr22, maybe the rate limiting can have a message to refer to trackers before it goes silent then | 19:34 |
| pwr22 | Yep | 19:35 |
| pwr22 | The reason it doesn't put a link in each message is on matrix it can expand for every message | 19:35 |
| pwr22 | Also planning to add a comparison command at some point | 19:36 |
| LjL | do you think any cheap UV flashlight/torch will be able to highlight droplets of the kind we'd want to clean before touching something? | 19:38 |
| LjL | pwr22, ah, i didn't think about that with Matrix. there are a number of issues with bridging, really. multiple people on IRC have asked me to make Brainstorm automatically post URL titles, but aside from the fact i'm not a fan of that in general, it would immediately make Matrix people complain who have that functionality already enabled in their client | 19:39 |
| LjL | pwr22, i think it would be sort of nice to have syntax in Matrix to specifically *not* expand/preview urls in a given message | 19:39 |
| pwr22 | <LjL "Peter Roberts, i think it would "> I personally don't have it turned on but someone complained about it | 19:41 |
| pwr22 | I'm not sure what matrix doesn't expand because of that | 19:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:40 UTC: (news): Trump directs FDA to examine whether malaria drug can be used for coronavirus — from WHO at 18:40: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/txSojJ | 19:44 |
| python476 | who bought uvc leds ? | 19:45 |
| pwr22 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51968302 | 19:46 |
| pwr22 | Nooooo | 19:46 |
| LjL | python476, i am about to, *if* i figure out that they do highlight droplets... | 19:46 |
| LjL | python476, and also if you don't snitch them all from amazon before i can buy one | 19:47 |
| LjL | python476, oh wait, UVC, is that the one that actually disinfects? | 19:48 |
| Cherenkov | pwr22: closed at home with bad quality for netflix | 19:48 |
| pwr22 | But I have a 4k UHD HDR tv :( | 19:49 |
| kungflu | link to benefit of uv-c leds? | 19:53 |
| Cherenkov | If we all watch in smartphones, we won't notice :D | 19:53 |
| python476 | LjL yes I was asking for cleaning | 19:53 |
| python476 | so far noone has spoke about detection with uv | 19:54 |
| kungflu | uvc is used to sterilize medical equipment and stuff | 19:54 |
| LjL | python476, i considered that option briefly, until i realized it's incredibly dangerous to be exposed to such a light, even briefly | 19:54 |
| python476 | yes | 19:54 |
| kungflu | but i am not sure leds have the needed power output, usually it's incandescent lamps | 19:54 |
| LjL | python476, so if you're extremely careful and have a remote control, it's an option, i guess | 19:54 |
| python476 | aliexpress has some from 10-50 | 19:54 |
| python476 | LjL good point about the remote | 19:54 |
| LjL | python476, look at it directly, and your cornea is gone, is my understanding (skin will also be unhappy) | 19:55 |
| python476 | LjL I thought it was UV(non-C) | 19:55 |
| LjL | you can buy those lamps on amazon (well, used to, anyway) and some of them even screw into standard sockets. but standard lightbulbs typically don't make you blind | 19:55 |
| truths33k3r[m] | !cases us | 19:55 |
| CovBot | In United States there have been a total of 11,355 cases as of 2020-03-19 18:47:00 UTC. Of these 11,076 (97.5%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 108 (1.0%) have definitely recovered and 171 (1.5%) have died. | 19:55 |
| LjL | python476, honestly i don't know the various classifications, but whatever works to disinfect surfaces for real, will also have these dangers | 19:56 |
| LjL | python476, when you see "sterilization boxes" that seem to just have a transparent lid and you see through, in reality the lid is filtering UV. so you just see some innocuous violet light. there is an interlock so the moment you open the lid, the light goes off. | 19:57 |
| [itchyjunk] | Can the bot do history? | 19:58 |
| [itchyjunk] | case us -1 to see yesterdays number? | 19:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:56 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Italy death toll overtakes China's, 25 million jobs at risk — from WHO at 18:56: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 20:01 |
| python476 | "The eye is most sensitive to damage by UV in the lower UVC band at 265–275 nm. " | 20:01 |
| python476 | :cough: | 20:01 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html | 20:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | I heard similar story in netherland/france. | 20:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | Haven't seen official reports though. | 20:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/03/19/coronavirus-trump-says-carnival-offered-cruise-ships-use-crisis/2876304001/ | 20:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | if you're in the ship, might as well take it for a spin? | 20:07 |
| AimHere | They want to use cruise ships for non-Coronavirus cases? Wouldn't that be the exact opposite of the sensible plan. We know that if covid gets on a ship, it riffles through everybody | 20:08 |
| AimHere | Use it for the coronavirus cases. | 20:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Not really. One of the princess ships only got %20 of people infected | 20:09 |
| xionbox[m] | still a good amount ... | 20:09 |
| bin_bash | i dont think they tested everyone, just people with symptoms right | 20:10 |
| xionbox[m] | <[itchyjunk] "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/"> Is this based on yesterday's CDC report? If so, I would not trust this interpretation, it's a garbage report. dividediff and I were talking about it twelve/thirteen hours ago | 20:10 |
| [itchyjunk] | it is based on yesterdays report | 20:11 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, if that's the Grand Princess, isn't it because 66% of the passengers refused to be tested? https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Most-Grand-Princess-passengers-not-tested-for-15141731.php | 20:11 |
| tinwhiskers | Ah. Ok | 20:11 |
| bin_bash | tbh they shouldnt be allowed to refuse | 20:12 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], no, the bot only looks at the present snapshot. but the data on offloop.net covers history so i don't see a compelling need to add history to the bot... it does usually provide updates sort of in realtime, but today it's not doing it for some reason and i forgot to look at what's broken | 20:12 |
| LjL | so i'll look no | 20:12 |
| LjL | w | 20:12 |
| xionbox[m] | <AimHere "tinwhiskers, if that's the Grand"> Oh wow | 20:12 |
| xionbox[m] | <xionbox[m] "About that CDC report, the data "> Here's what I had to write about that CDC report last night | 20:14 |
| HeXiLeD | https://www.rt.com/sport/483262-spanish-coach-dies-coronavirus [itchyjunk] | 20:15 |
| HeXiLeD | the 'boomer remover' does not care about feelings | 20:15 |
| [itchyjunk] | HeXiLeD, not sure what you're getting at. | 20:15 |
| HeXiLeD | you said that you have not seem many cases of young people | 20:16 |
| [itchyjunk] | when did i say that? | 20:16 |
| HeXiLeD | there is this wave of young people just ignoring the problem | 20:16 |
| HeXiLeD | maybe i misread | 20:16 |
| HeXiLeD | let me see | 20:16 |
| HeXiLeD | [itchyjunk] | Haven't seen official reports though. and i assumed you are talking about the link you posted coronavirus-young-people.htm | 20:17 |
| bin_bash | HeXiLeD: tbf that's not the best example since the dude had undiagnosed cancer | 20:17 |
| yuriwho | preliminary data from drug treatments: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/19/coronavirus-some-clinical-trial-data | 20:17 |
| HeXiLeD | well, still a 21y o | 20:17 |
| bin_bash | but yes, young people are being impacted | 20:17 |
| [itchyjunk] | leukemia | 20:17 |
| bin_bash | yes well a 21 year old with cancer | 20:17 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Somebody knows where to find model of growth and predictions for upcoming months? | 20:17 |
| bin_bash | not a healthy 21 year old | 20:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | Official data from France/Netherlands. | 20:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | They also reported higher number for under 50 than italy | 20:18 |
| HeXiLeD | basically it is now about age. the virus is taking down anyone with weak health | 20:18 |
| HeXiLeD | it is nature, leveling things | 20:18 |
| LjL | yuriwho, damn, i thought the HIV cocktail was empirically shown to be somewhat effective :( | 20:18 |
| HeXiLeD | ensuring that only the healthier stick around | 20:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | There is some association with age. | 20:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | Not sure what you've read to claim age is not a factor. | 20:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | But the number of ACE-2 receptors is a function of age. | 20:19 |
| HeXiLeD | [itchyjunk]: yah italy is done. Well with age health becomes weaker too | 20:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | And since the virus seem to primarely bind to it, there will be some relation there. | 20:20 |
| HeXiLeD | so yah. age is a factor but not exclusive | 20:20 |
| HeXiLeD | sure. as we age, we get weaker immune system | 20:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | That is not what I said. | 20:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | I am talking about ACE-2 receptors. | 20:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | Not immune system. | 20:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:16 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Amazon suspends Pantry delivery, France and the UK report 40% death toll jumps — from WHO at 19:16: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 20:20 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Current websites getting updates everyday but im wondering if there some resources where can see some exponential growth model of the coronavirus like a prediction for upcoming monhts | 20:21 |
| HeXiLeD | ya i see. i gave the example of the immune system | 20:21 |
| CrystalMath | hi all, i wonder why eurovision was delayed, considering it was in May | 20:21 |
| CrystalMath | it seems a little early to delay it now | 20:21 |
| HeXiLeD | whatever the factor is ( and we can debate about it) those who are naturally less strong, will be taken down. | 20:21 |
| HeXiLeD | this has happened in the past. | 20:22 |
| HeXiLeD | will happen again. | 20:22 |
| AimHere | CrystalMath, you might be under the impression this virus thing is going to be over in May. It won't be. | 20:22 |
| CrystalMath | AimHere: we don't know that yet | 20:22 |
| CrystalMath | it seems a little rash and panicky to me | 20:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | We know that. | 20:23 |
| darsie | Men are naturally less strong. | 20:23 |
| python476 | AimHere: what are you thoughts ? 6 months ? more ? | 20:23 |
| [itchyjunk] | I don't know who the "we" that doesn't know it is. | 20:23 |
| python476 | I had a feeling that confinement would show taming in a month | 20:23 |
| python476 | with efforts to ramp up device production and medicines accelerating the ease out | 20:23 |
| AimHere | CrystalMath, Since February, when it was more or less confined to China, it's in pretty much every country in the world. It's starting to overload major Western Health services. The main strategy is to suspend social movement so that the uptake is slow enough that the health systems can cope. We know it | 20:24 |
| [itchyjunk] | python476, at the current rate of spread, to have over 50% population develop immunity would be at the very least 3 months? | 20:24 |
| [itchyjunk] | hard to tell because all the lockdowns might be slowing it but can't tell right now | 20:24 |
| python476 | yeah ok | 20:24 |
| AimHere | Also if you get that 50% immunity in 3 months, that's close to a WORST case scenario | 20:24 |
| LjL | CrystalMath, nobody with a clue expects this to be over in May | 20:24 |
| CrystalMath | AimHere: i think the epidemic will peak a lot earlier | 20:24 |
| AimHere | CrystalMath, if it does, you won't care about Eurovision, because we're talking mass graves | 20:25 |
| [itchyjunk] | Based on what? | 20:25 |
| Jigsy | Sources: Dude trust me | 20:25 |
| CrystalMath | mass graves, don't be ridiculous | 20:25 |
| LjL | nothing ridiculous about mass graves | 20:25 |
| CrystalMath | so far COVID-19 loses from the seasonal flu by death count | 20:25 |
| LjL | oh good GRIEF | 20:25 |
| HeXiLeD | agreed LjL | 20:25 |
| [itchyjunk] | I dont see it ending before May even with a r_0 ~5 | 20:25 |
| AimHere | CrystalMath, https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-army-called-in-to-carry-away-corpses-as-citys-crematorium-is-overwhelmed-11959994 | 20:25 |
| [itchyjunk] | .. What? | 20:25 |
| LjL | CrystalMath, are some humans really that blind not to understand that the GROWTH pattern of something MATTERS? | 20:26 |
| AimHere | They're calling in the Italian army because they can't cope with the death toll | 20:26 |
| LjL | it hasn't killed everyone off now | 20:26 |
| LjL | so let's do Eurovision, sure | 20:26 |
| LjL | we all like songs | 20:26 |
| LjL | jesus christ | 20:26 |
| AimHere | That's right now. We're *far* from the peak | 20:26 |
| CrystalMath | LjL: oh it will grow, it will infect everyone | 20:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | Mortality rate for flu is lower. | 20:26 |
| CrystalMath | it has probably infected most people already | 20:26 |
| HeXiLeD | of a country or region gets overwhelmed, mass graves are only natural | 20:26 |
| CrystalMath | most people don't know | 20:26 |
| LjL | nonsense | 20:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | Probably not. | 20:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | You should probably do some basic reading on it. | 20:26 |
| AimHere | CrystalMath, it's obvious that the reported cases figures we're seeing are a mass underestimate, but the current thinking is that it's 10 or 20 times underestimate, | 20:27 |
| CrystalMath | many cases in teens and younger are asymptomatic, and they are carriers | 20:27 |
| xionbox[m] | <JsonJuri[m] "Somebody knows where to find mod"> Doesn't Imperial College publish their models? | 20:27 |
| CrystalMath | AimHere: yeah i'd agree | 20:27 |
| python476 | i just heard a nurse saying their so overwhelmed and untested she cannot take numbers seriously (france again) | 20:27 |
| [itchyjunk] | That's a lie too. | 20:27 |
| CrystalMath | AimHere: and you don't think that our case growth * 10 is so high everyone will get it soon? | 20:27 |
| [itchyjunk] | < 10% overall cases are estimated to be asymptomatic. | 20:27 |
| AimHere | If 'most' people already have it, then you'd be looking at a MASSIVE load on health services | 20:27 |
| v0idkr4ft[m] | I feel like I'm in 12 monkeys | 20:27 |
| [itchyjunk] | So "most cases" in teens are not that. | 20:27 |
| CrystalMath | many cases are unreported, as well | 20:28 |
| python476 | v0idkr4ft[m]: free movie binging, courtesy of mother natureflix | 20:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | CrystalMath, soon is 5-10 months. | 20:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | Maybe 20% cases are unreported. | 20:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | 500k+20% of 500k isn't 8 billion. | 20:28 |
| CrystalMath | knowing people, i'd say 50%+ is unreported | 20:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | So i doubt most people are already infected it. | 20:28 |
| CrystalMath | nobody wants to go to quarantine | 20:29 |
| [itchyjunk] | ok, 60% | 20:29 |
| HeXiLeD | CrystalMath:makes sense | 20:29 |
| [itchyjunk] | 500k+60% of x isn't 7 billion. | 20:29 |
| [itchyjunk] | So i doubt most people are already infected it. | 20:29 |
| v0idkr4ft[m] | Apparently syfy turned it into a series | 20:29 |
| CrystalMath | [itchyjunk]: well not yet but this spreads fast | 20:29 |
| [itchyjunk] | Yes, so in several months, it might hit 1/3rd to 2/3rd of population. | 20:30 |
| HeXiLeD | the way it spreads is the worse. | 20:30 |
| HeXiLeD | [itchyjunk]: agreed | 20:30 |
| CrystalMath | yeah sounds about right | 20:30 |
| HeXiLeD | could possible | 20:30 |
| CrystalMath | 12 Monkeys was an amazing movie | 20:31 |
| [itchyjunk] | So it won't be over by may. | 20:31 |
| [itchyjunk] | Example: Assume India is reporting the correct numbers, it's several weeks behind USA. | 20:31 |
| CrystalMath | [itchyjunk]: unless heat affects it | 20:31 |
| [itchyjunk] | Which itself is behind Italy. | 20:32 |
| tinwhiskers | Heat probably doesn't affect it | 20:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | CrystalMath, r_0 < 3 currently. | 20:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | even with r_0 ~ 5, it won't be over by may. | 20:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | So whereever you read the it might be over by may, i'd fact check the numbers. | 20:32 |
| kungflu | depends what "over" means | 20:32 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Kijk 'Exponentiële groei en epidemieën' op YouTube | 20:33 |
| JsonJuri[m] | https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg | 20:33 |
| HeXiLeD | https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/coronavirus-age-victims/index.html | 20:33 |
| [itchyjunk] | over 50% population has immunity | 20:33 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Like this I meant | 20:33 |
| kungflu | the first wave seems to sweep through in 2-3 months | 20:33 |
| [itchyjunk] | is what we're calling over for this conversation. | 20:33 |
| CrystalMath | may is pretty soon, i'm afraid you might be right | 20:33 |
| CrystalMath | there won't be eurovision :( | 20:33 |
| HeXiLeD | havent they canceled it already CrystalMath ? | 20:33 |
| CrystalMath | yeah | 20:33 |
| [itchyjunk] | There won't be positive GDP for a lot of countries. | 20:34 |
| CrystalMath | but even in the parallel universe where they're still thinking about it, it will be cancelled :P | 20:34 |
| JsonJuri[m] | Wehttps://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg | 20:34 |
| AimHere | At the rate of doubling, and assuming the real figure is 10-20 times the reported infection figure, you're talking about hitting 1 billion infections in about 100 days. That's long past May | 20:34 |
| tinwhiskers | The imperial college modeling suggests about four months with the type of management we're seeing from most countries | 20:34 |
| kungflu | so "over by may" is dependent on what country. south america lags north america by 1-2 weeks. north america lags europe by 2 weeks, eu lags china by 2 weeks | 20:34 |
| JsonJuri[m] | https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg | 20:34 |
| kungflu | i think imperial college was biased towards worst case scenarios | 20:34 |
| AimHere | And infections tend to slow as they pass through the population, even without human measures to slow them down | 20:34 |
| kungflu | they projected 2.2 million dead in the u.s. w/o mitigants | 20:35 |
| tinwhiskers | They had several scenarios | 20:35 |
| kungflu | that seems excessive | 20:35 |
| CrystalMath | eh, i don't think it'll be over in europe in two weeks | 20:35 |
| tinwhiskers | Well, two main scenarios | 20:35 |
| [itchyjunk] | kungflu, sounds about right for 2/3rd infected | 20:35 |
| [itchyjunk] | population of 300+ mil | 20:35 |
| AimHere | kungflu, that's a 1% death rate, give or take. About the same as Spanish Flu | 20:35 |
| AimHere | Seems like a reasonable worst case estimate | 20:35 |
| [itchyjunk] | i think its 3% or so | 20:35 |
| CrystalMath | pretty sad that we'll now have to get used to another RNA virus bothering people | 20:36 |
| tinwhiskers | Under the suppression strategy (South Korea, China) it would go on indefinitely until a vaccine is produced | 20:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | since they assume 80% of pop gets infected | 20:36 |
| CrystalMath | as if the current ones weren't enough | 20:36 |
| AimHere | The death rate is hard to tell because obviously the current infection rate figure is unknown | 20:36 |
| kungflu | even if you assume 2/3 of the population gets it (which seems too high) the avg mortality of 0.6% gives 1.3M tops | 20:36 |
| kungflu | 2.2 is way out there | 20:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | CrystalMath, we'll have more in near future probably | 20:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | 2/3rd isn't too high | 20:36 |
| CrystalMath | [itchyjunk]: what makes you think so? | 20:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | it's an upper bound. | 20:36 |
| kungflu | like i said, it seems closer to worst-case than best-case | 20:36 |
| xionbox[m] | CrystalMath: why not? If the quarantine is respected, we should have a great idea of the true number of cases in Western Europe in the next two weeks. Peak of new daily cases could happen by like Sunday/Tuesday in my guess (no source to back this up, and I'M generally an optimist). | 20:36 |
| kungflu | imperial wanted a headline | 20:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | CrystalMath, china has been studying coronaviradea pretty extensively. we see that they can bind to humans in some cases without intermediates. | 20:37 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, the ICL strategies were based around a managed suppression + occasional lack of suppression, tactic, designed to let the virus spread slowly | 20:37 |
| Jigsy | 12 months until a Vaccine apparently. | 20:37 |
| tinwhiskers | It's likely going to be 6-19% death rate anywhere that the virus isn't suppressed because it will overwhelm healthcare | 20:37 |
| Jigsy | >FDA chief: Vaccine expected in 12 months | 20:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | so there is a lot of viruses out there and decent number needs a tiny luck to jump to humans | 20:37 |
| tinwhiskers | AimHere: yeah | 20:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | and you just need 1 or 2 of them to have some good r_0 numbers and low mortality rate | 20:38 |
| CrystalMath | [itchyjunk]: but there have always been | 20:38 |
| tinwhiskers | *6-10% (typo) | 20:38 |
| CrystalMath | Sarbecovirus is not new | 20:38 |
| [itchyjunk] | CrystalMath, there have been 7+b humans exactly once | 20:38 |
| [itchyjunk] | now. | 20:38 |
| [itchyjunk] | there are lots of corona viruses. | 20:38 |
| [itchyjunk] | 4-5 genres depending on how you classify them. | 20:39 |
| [itchyjunk] | but it's not even about just them. | 20:39 |
| CrystalMath | yeah... dammit people stop making so many babies | 20:39 |
| tinwhiskers | If hospitals are overwhelmed most people with severe symptoms will die, so you're looking at more than 3% of infected people dying in the US given the current strategy | 20:39 |
| xionbox[m] | Jigsy: is this a current presser? I thoguth est. was 18 months | 20:39 |
| [itchyjunk] | as we better understand viruses in general, we see that the cross domain jumps are a lot more common. | 20:39 |
| kungflu | i don't think we're discussing whether 2/3 infection rate is possible. it is possible. what we're discussing is if imperial's projection was closer to worst than best case. and i think it was. | 20:39 |
| Jigsy | I just saw it on The Guardian. | 20:39 |
| kungflu | they assumed particularly negative things | 20:39 |
| tinwhiskers | kungflu: such as? | 20:39 |
| astraliam[m] | %data italy | 20:40 |
| Brainstorm | astraliam[m]: In all areas, Italy, there are 41035 cases, 3405 deaths (8.3% of cases), 4440 recoveries as of March 19, 17:43Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 20:40 |
| [itchyjunk] | kungflu, i think the say it in the paper that they are addrissing upper bounds. | 20:40 |
| [itchyjunk] | so there isn't much of a debate. | 20:40 |
| kungflu | such as a high R0 and high mortality rate | 20:40 |
| kungflu | there is a debate | 20:40 |
| tinwhiskers | kungflu: do you know what figures they used for those? | 20:40 |
| AimHere | The ICL studies had analyses on the R0 from 2.2 upwards | 20:40 |
| [itchyjunk] | Not sure who is debating. the paper is pretty explisit about the numbers they use | 20:40 |
| kungflu | many are debating it | 20:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | they used r_0 and mortality rate from WHO i think | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | Ok | 20:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | ~3.4 % mortality rate i think? | 20:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | and they used upper bounds for number of people infected | 20:41 |
| AimHere | R0=2, the ICL suggested 400k deaths in the UK | 20:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | 81% from their models | 20:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | lower bound was 1/3rd | 20:41 |
| AimHere | R0-2.6, the death rate was 550k | 20:41 |
| kungflu | uk was doing nothing, they were following some experts who said a "herd immunity" approach was best. so imperial wrote a worst-case dramatic paper to get boris to change his mind. | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | That's reasonable or even low under the "flatten the curve" model but probably a bit high under suppression | 20:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 19:36 UTC: /u/slakmehl: US State Department raises international travel advisory to it's maximum. "Level 4: Do Not Travel" — from WHO at 19:36: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/23ArwF | 20:42 |
| kungflu | lots of headline-grabbing right now among some people | 20:42 |
| tinwhiskers | AimHere: 550k isn't a death rate | 20:42 |
| AimHere | kungflu, what was 'worst case' about it? | 20:42 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, projected deaths then, sorry | 20:42 |
| tinwhiskers | That means nothing to me | 20:42 |
| kungflu | and the uk isn't alone. about a week ago the head of ohio's public health fabricated a 100,000 number. | 20:42 |
| LjL | what about that paper that tries to guess Italy's true numbers (it's in the topic links)? if you take Lombardy, whose healthcare system is already very much overwhelmed, you might get a decent figure for the death rate under bad conditions, at least a range | 20:43 |
| [itchyjunk] | "hear immunity" is cheapest in the long run according to some model. But you trade people for some GDP in that case. | 20:43 |
| CrystalMath | i would say the death rate is about 0.7%, looking at China and the Diamond Princess | 20:43 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, What it means is that their calculation of unmitigated deaths in the UK due to covid-19 was 550,000 if the R0 was 2.6 | 20:43 |
| CrystalMath | the Diamond Princess is great for analysis | 20:43 |
| [itchyjunk] | I disagree. | 20:43 |
| [itchyjunk] | The death rate in S Korea was 0.9% and china said the death rate with proper medical care is about 1.2% | 20:43 |
| LjL | the death rate may well be about 0.7% or so *if you can attend to all critical and serious cases* | 20:43 |
| tinwhiskers | AimHere: that assumes i know what the population is to be meaningful. The rate is far more useful | 20:43 |
| CrystalMath | yeah 0.7% assumes infinite respirators | 20:44 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, the total UK population is 70 million | 20:44 |
| kungflu | death rate isn't static | 20:44 |
| tinwhiskers | That's still not useful | 20:44 |
| [itchyjunk] | but it's impossible to "guarantee" proper medical care | 20:44 |
| tinwhiskers | The rate is useful | 20:44 |
| [itchyjunk] | so those lower bounds don't apply | 20:44 |
| kungflu | as therapeutics roll out and best practices get adopted from countries that already went through it, death rate drops | 20:44 |
| kungflu | similar to r0, it's not static either | 20:44 |
| [itchyjunk] | it drops sure. | 20:44 |
| kungflu | it's a function of things like societal behavior modification | 20:45 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, 55000000/70000000 = | 20:45 |
| [itchyjunk] | But it won't hit best case scenerio anytime soon. | 20:45 |
| [itchyjunk] | The number of ventilators won't magically go up. | 20:45 |
| tinwhiskers | AimHere: so why not just give the rate? | 20:45 |
| CrystalMath | what do you think about remdesivir? | 20:45 |
| [itchyjunk] | It's made by a niche industry thats not build to scale at time of crisis. | 20:45 |
| [itchyjunk] | Whats a remdesivir? | 20:45 |
| kungflu | so it is deadly serious sure. you can just look around and realize that. you don't need to hype it. it's already bad on its own. | 20:45 |
| CrystalMath | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir | 20:45 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, why don't you just calculate it yourself? | 20:45 |
| [itchyjunk] | It is true and someone repeates it, its not hyping. | 20:46 |
| tinwhiskers | AimHere: i asked if anything new the rate. Stop wasting time | 20:46 |
| LjL | are you seriously arguing about who is going to do a calculation with numbers that were stated? | 20:46 |
| LjL | %wa 55000000/70000000 | 20:46 |
| kungflu | it's a projection, it's neither true not false | 20:46 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (55000000/70000000): Decimal approximation: 0.785714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285... → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=55000000%2F70000000 | 20:46 |
| LjL | here you go, that's the number | 20:46 |
| LjL | sheesh | 20:46 |
| tinwhiskers | *if anyone knew the rate | 20:46 |
| [itchyjunk] | We live in a society where $40B for NIH is considered overspending but $60B to bail boeing is fine. | 20:46 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, I wasn't informing anyone of the projected death rate, I was pointing out to some other user that the ICL folks used a fairly conservative R0 figure | 20:47 |
| kungflu | [itchyjunk]: let me explain what a projection is. you take a set of assumptions (one hopes grounded in some realities) and you extrapolate out. | 20:47 |
| AimHere | tinwhiskers, and a range of figures, at that | 20:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | kungflu, i'll skip on your attitude, thanks. | 20:47 |
| kungflu | these forward looking forecasts are neither "true" nor "false" | 20:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | bunch of people in this room study math for a living, so you can get less cocky any time you want. | 20:47 |
| kungflu | they may turn out to be accurate or miss the mark, bu you only find out once it's realized | 20:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | it you already have some data, you projections are different | 20:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | than wild projections | 20:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | from the time you had different data | 20:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:45 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Amazon suspends Pantry delivery, France and the UK report 40% death toll jumps — from WHO at 19:45: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zDhE63 | 20:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | so just saying "let me explain what projection in general is" doesn't mean there isn't a quality associated to it | 20:49 |
| kungflu | also, you might have already realized this but projections are often highly dependent on assumption, you change one number a little bit and your 3-month out number changes a lot. especially if the underlying process is exponential. | 20:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | yes, sure. assumptions and such varies projections. | 20:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | if someone comes in and says "i project the death rate is 100%" no one buys that. | 20:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | we have rough idea of what it is | 20:50 |
| kungflu | ok, i am sorry to other for repeating myself | 20:50 |
| kungflu | the death rate isn't statiuc | 20:50 |
| aeth | 'these ____ are neither "true" nor "false"' can pretty much apply to anything other than deductive systems | 20:50 |
| aeth | and so it's contentless other than perhaps saying "this is not a mathematical system" | 20:50 |
| kungflu | so the death rate when the world first learned of covid is different from when the spike protein is fully understood and lots of therapeutics have been tested | 20:50 |
| kungflu | think of it not as a "the" death rate but the current failure rate, as a function of time | 20:51 |
| kungflu | it'll help your analysis if you think of it this way. static analysis is not good for a highly dynamic system. | 20:51 |
| LjL | but we don't really know if and when good therapeutics are found... i mean, you're projecting so of course you have to assume some things, but assumptions like (to make stuff up) "we'll have a cure with 95% success rate by July" would make things *very* different | 20:54 |
| LjL | but i suppose the fact small changes in assumptions may cause big effects in the model has been mentioned... | 20:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 19:48 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Amy Spiro su Twitter: "Netanyahu in live primetime address: The people of Israel are now ordered to stay in their homes. This is not a suggestion. This is not a recommendation. It is now a command." — from WHO at 19:48: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/AVoh58 | 20:55 |
| kungflu | Imperial had an agenda. it was to change the then-current UK policy of letting people continue with their lives hoping herd immunity was the right approach. | 20:56 |
| LjL | %cases israel | 20:56 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Israel, there are 573 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 14 recoveries as of March 19, 19:45Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data. | 20:56 |
| LjL | uh is Israel the new Germany | 20:56 |
| kungflu | their goal was best achieved by paiting a bleak picture of the herd immunity approach | 20:56 |
| LjL | ... inappropriate comparison maybe, but i meant. | 20:56 |
| kungflu | you see this often in science. when agendas taint the methodology. it's pervasive in climate "science" as an example. | 20:57 |
| CrystalMath | i agree that climate-related science is blowing up the problem | 20:58 |
| [itchyjunk] | They might have been optimizing for something else. | 21:00 |
| tinwhiskers | Ok, for those interested the imperial college modeling used a range of R0 values from 2.0-2.6. 4.4% of cases require hospitalisation, and 30% of those require critical care, and an infection fatality rate of 0.9 | 21:00 |
| [itchyjunk] | Maybe if your goal is to minimize the time till 50% population gets immunity, you get a "heard immunity" model. | 21:00 |
| [itchyjunk] | It's not clear why any decision is specifically being made. | 21:00 |
| kungflu | for example, imperial assumed R0 of 2.4, doubling rate of 5 days, certain hospitalization rates, etc etc | 21:01 |
| kungflu | each of those, if tweaked even by small decimal amounts, will change your overall dead number by a lot | 21:01 |
| [itchyjunk] | We've cloned sheeps and developed "AI" to win the game of Go and the best they have is "wash your hand" | 21:01 |
| kungflu | when this happens, we say the result is *not* robust to assumptions | 21:01 |
| AimHere | Imperial tweaked the R0 from 2.0 to 2.6 | 21:01 |
| AimHere | It didn't change the projected death tolls by that much, they were still well within an order of magnitude | 21:01 |
| kungflu | their baseline model was 2.4 | 21:02 |
| AimHere | the range was 410k-550k | 21:02 |
| AimHere | Sure | 21:02 |
| Biep[m] | So the Wuhan region has reached herd immunity now? | 21:02 |
| tinwhiskers | Biep[m]: no | 21:02 |
| kungflu | and with social mitigations the empirical r0 is a lot lower than 2.4 now | 21:02 |
| [itchyjunk] | no | 21:02 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], no. They stopped people getting infected with lockdown and distancing | 21:02 |
| [itchyjunk] | it was "contained" not let to spread through the population. | 21:02 |
| [itchyjunk] | hence, china still needs to "isolate" itself from rest of the sick countries | 21:03 |
| AimHere | kungflu, yes. Imperial was testing the effect of social mitigations. That's literally what they were modelling | 21:03 |
| kungflu | was imperial within the realm of possibility? yes. was it on the bleak end of the spectrum? yes. they wanted to be. they were looking to effect UK policy. | 21:03 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't see how it's on the bleak side | 21:03 |
| kungflu | yes, by painting the alternative to mitigations as being very bleak | 21:03 |
| tinwhiskers | 0.9% fatality rate is low if anything | 21:04 |
| kungflu | i have a better chance of convincing you to pick A if i make B look very bad | 21:04 |
| tinwhiskers | R0 of 2.4 is moderate | 21:04 |
| Biep[m] | China as a whole is still very contagiable, of course - but are the Wuhan people still each of them in a bubble? | 21:04 |
| AimHere | That doesn't make sense. You're saying that they fucked up by setting R0 to be 2.4 without mitigations and then showed that mitigating it was an improvement - and then criticising the R0 because it's a figure they arrived at without mitigations | 21:04 |
| [itchyjunk] | What do you mean in a bubble? | 21:04 |
| int21 | hi all, someone have some real information about hidroxicloroquina? | 21:04 |
| docwon | [itchyjunk], they all bought zorbs | 21:04 |
| [itchyjunk] | They have strict internal restriction and such | 21:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | whats a zorb? | 21:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | int21, its a real drug. | 21:05 |
| docwon | like a hamster ball for people | 21:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | idk what "real infroamtion" you want | 21:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | docwon, oh those heh | 21:05 |
| docwon | https://i.imgur.com/SBFiLwT.jpg | 21:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | docwon, why can't viruses quantum tunnel ? | 21:05 |
| [itchyjunk] | they aren't small enough? | 21:05 |
| docwon | idk | 21:05 |
| int21 | we have access easly in Brazil, but I don't know if is true | 21:06 |
| docwon | what do you think i am, some kind of physicist? | 21:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | int21, if what is true? | 21:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | docwon, ex-physicist | 21:06 |
| docwon | wo | 21:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | since LHC is out of business | 21:06 |
| kungflu | we have two equally bad camps, the ones who say "just another flu" and the ones who model it as the apocalypse | 21:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | for now :s | 21:06 |
| docwon | it's not like we get fired during long shutdowns | 21:06 |
| docwon | most of our job is analysing data | 21:07 |
| docwon | which takes a long time | 21:07 |
| docwon | and can be done when we're not taking data | 21:07 |
| kungflu | but i guess it's to be expected. it's a novel thing and humans are scared of things they don't understand. | 21:07 |
| [itchyjunk] | you'll run out of data at some point | 21:07 |
| LjL | int21, https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/19/coronavirus-some-clinical-trial-data talks about that drug in some detail, whatever detail we have available so far anyway. | 21:07 |
| docwon | people are still analysing data from experiments that stopped 10+ years ago | 21:07 |
| docwon | LHC data will still be used into the 2050s | 21:07 |
| kungflu | docwon: doctors are still going back and forth on whether butter or margarine is healthier | 21:07 |
| [itchyjunk] | anti malerials have been claimed to help with thereputics. | 21:07 |
| docwon | anyway once global society collapses, those who follow the way of the zorb will be the new ruling classes | 21:08 |
| Biep[m] | <[itchyjunk] "What do you mean in a bubble?"> There are new cases in China, but not in that region. AimHere said that was because of rigorous social distancing - so each Wuhan'er should be on her or his own, otherwise there would still be new infections. | 21:08 |
| [itchyjunk] | But the recommendation dose that came out of china is kinda high | 21:08 |
| docwon | i for one welcome our new overzorbs | 21:08 |
| [itchyjunk] | Biep[m], if no oen in the region has it and no one with the virus is comminng in or out, they can all be in the same room and not spread it | 21:08 |
| kungflu | it's probably safe to say that the more certain someone sounds about their projections, the less you should believe them | 21:08 |
| [itchyjunk] | Biep[m], "essential industries" are already up and running there | 21:08 |
| kungflu | the smart ones are the ones being honest and saying, we don't know enough about this yet to make very precise claims | 21:09 |
| Biep[m] | But lots of people in the region have it! Wuhan.. | 21:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | but can't viruses quantum tunnel for real though? | 21:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | would make for a nice sci-fi book | 21:09 |
| tinwhiskers | kungflu: it's also a good idea to go with what is currently the best model we have despite the issues | 21:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | who needs ACE-2 receptors when you can teleport | 21:09 |
| tinwhiskers | kungflu: the alternative is guessing | 21:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | Biep[m], not that make, globally speaking. | 21:10 |
| kungflu | no, you can look at models, but keep in mind that's all they are | 21:10 |
| [itchyjunk] | the oen who have it are isolated and majority of cases are already resolved | 21:10 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], the point is that the social distancing has been in place long enough that people are recovering from it or they're in hospital or they've not got it at all | 21:10 |
| [itchyjunk] | either dead or developed immunity | 21:10 |
| tinwhiskers | kungflu: of course | 21:10 |
| AimHere | The instances of the virus in the wild are very much reduced | 21:10 |
| Biep[m] | ?? | 21:10 |
| tinwhiskers | But you said the more certain we are about a model the less we should believe it? | 21:11 |
| kungflu | no | 21:11 |
| kungflu | i said the more certain the modeler is about his model | 21:11 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], if you isolatge people for long enough, the ones who have the virus are dead or recovered and not contagious. The ones who never had it are safe because there's nobody left to catch it from | 21:11 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], Wuhan is probably somewhere around this state now | 21:11 |
| [itchyjunk] | for now | 21:11 |
| AimHere | But at some point, there might be another flareup | 21:11 |
| ubLIX | Res ipsa loquitur | 21:11 |
| [itchyjunk] | that one infected guy who have a gf in wuhan who sneaks in | 21:12 |
| AimHere | Yes. But with disease surveillance, they can probably reimpose measures quickly, now that they know the problem and take it seirously | 21:12 |
| Biep[m] | AimHere: So they have been able to separate *all* infected people from *all* non-infected ones there? | 21:12 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 21:12 |
| [itchyjunk] | That's their claim | 21:12 |
| [itchyjunk] | based on the number they release | 21:12 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], they separate everybody from everybody, more or less. That's what social distancing is | 21:12 |
| tinwhiskers | Contact tracing may be enough to avoid another complete lockdown | 21:12 |
| [itchyjunk] | i haven't gone there to check myself | 21:12 |
| Biep[m] | Given the incubation time, and the symptomless cases. that sounds incredibly unlikely | 21:12 |
| kungflu | the good news is that countries are ramping up their testing capability. so assuming this first wave goes through, it'll be ready to do a singapore or hong kong the next time | 21:12 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], they put the distancing in place weeks ago | 21:13 |
| kungflu | quick testing, isolation, contact tracgin | 21:13 |
| Biep[m] | OK, so as I wrote - each person in her own bubble. | 21:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | Biep[m], they have been dealing with it for 3 months. | 21:13 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], yeah, that's more or less the idea | 21:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | not the 10 days most countries have under their belt | 21:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | each person `was` in their own bubble. | 21:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | now that there is no case of spreading, they have turned back some of the industries. | 21:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | Any country can only tank so much economic losss before collapse | 21:14 |
| Biep[m] | For once, the Chinese government has been able to implement a strategy. No Party members claiming exemptions for themselves or their wives, no corruption interfering.. Just Wow! | 21:14 |
| [itchyjunk] | Biep[m], experience. | 21:14 |
| [itchyjunk] | SARS-CoV, H1N1 | 21:15 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], that corruption might well have happened too | 21:15 |
| [itchyjunk] | what else? | 21:15 |
| AimHere | Biep[m], but it's happening elsewhere. Sports teams and politicians getting their hands on testing long before everyone else | 21:15 |
| [itchyjunk] | when there is a pandemic in your country every few years, you get good at dealing with it. | 21:15 |
| Biep[m] | Well, my experience from living there is different in general - but I wasn't there during a potential pandemic. | 21:16 |
| [itchyjunk] | It's always a potential pandemic there. | 21:16 |
| tinwhiskers | Heh | 21:17 |
| Biep[m] | Things get forbidden - except for Party members with a vested interest in doing them anyway. Of for those who pay. | 21:17 |
| kungflu | they need to start cracking down on this illegal wild animal trading and terribly unsanitary practies | 21:17 |
| kungflu | and no more bat soup, ffs | 21:17 |
| Biep[m] | OK, then I have lived through three years of potential pandemic.. | 21:17 |
| tinwhiskers | That's just xenophobic bullshit | 21:17 |
| kungflu | the bat soup was a joke not xenophobia, relax sjw. | 21:18 |
| kungflu | the other things were accurate | 21:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | Biep[m], china has measures in place to report flu like symptoms after SARS-CoV or early 2000s | 21:18 |
| kungflu | they have a wild animal trade that is unregulated and the sanitary condition of some of those markets is deplorable. | 21:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | and some dedicated resaerchers in wuhan institute of virology were gathering bat shit and stuff to study viruses | 21:18 |
| tinwhiskers | Wherever people live and move into new areas with wild animals this can occur. The wetmarket is not responsible for the emergence of the disease. | 21:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | that all gave them a leg up this time | 21:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | it really paid off | 21:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | meanwhile the west thought "wash hand" was all they needed | 21:19 |
| Biep[m] | Yes - they have driver's licences too - but no driving schools, because it is cheaper to buy them. | 21:19 |
| tinwhiskers | Spanish flu originated in the US... | 21:19 |
| kungflu | also the "that's racist" bs is dumb and doesn't help | 21:19 |
| Biep[m] | Anyway - kudos for them. | 21:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | it experience for sure though. | 21:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | not just china. | 21:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | all the ones that go scared shitless with SARS-CoV and stuff | 21:20 |
| tinwhiskers | Eating bats is done all over the world. Picking on that just because it is different to your cultural norms is xenophobic. | 21:20 |
| kungflu | there's a reason china is a net exporter of pandemics | 21:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | tiwan, S korea, hongkong | 21:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | they were all better prepared | 21:20 |
| pale_moon22kk | %cases finland | 21:20 |
| Brainstorm | pale_moon22kk: In all areas, Finland, there are 400 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 10 recoveries as of March 19, 16:13Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data. | 21:20 |
| tinwhiskers | kungflu: yes, they have lots of populations of wild animals | 21:20 |
| pale_moon22kk | %data finland | 21:20 |
| Brainstorm | pale_moon22kk: In all areas, Finland, there are 400 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 10 recoveries as of March 19, 16:13Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data. | 21:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | %cases world | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | [itchyjunk]: In all areas, World, there are 242180 cases, 9995 deaths (4.1% of cases), 86609 recoveries as of March 19, 20:18Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 21:21 |
| pale_moon22kk | %data norway | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | pale_moon22kk: In all areas, Norway, there are 1784 cases, 7 deaths (0.4% of cases), 1 recoveries as of March 19, 20:18Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Norway for time series data. | 21:21 |
| kungflu | the worst part of it isn't the bat soup and pangolin dumplings | 21:21 |
| kungflu | it's that they delayed the release of information | 21:21 |
| tinwhiskers | Agreed | 21:21 |
| LjL | pale_moon22kk, if you want to do this for several places, please either do it in a PM with the bot, or use the offloop.net site | 21:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | Not like they waited years. | 21:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | They gave all the into to WHO and CDC by first week of jan. | 21:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | They knew about it december. | 21:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | At worst they held info for 2 weeks or so till they were sure. | 21:22 |
| kungflu | by then a shitton of wuhanians in EU had travelled back to wuhan for the lunar new year and back | 21:22 |
| kungflu | also, in exponential dynamics, days matter | 21:23 |
| kungflu | i can explain that too if you'd like | 21:23 |
| IronY | welp u lost complete control of this channel lol | 21:23 |
| tinwhiskers | Local officials may have been as much to blame as well because they don't like to rock the boat, so it may not have even been a huge cover up by central government. | 21:23 |
| [itchyjunk] | yes it was a chain all the way to the top | 21:23 |
| [itchyjunk] | no one delayed it too much. everyone wanted to make sure before they went up the chain | 21:23 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 21:24 |
| [itchyjunk] | if the virus had started in washington DC, i dont think it would have been any better response | 21:24 |
| [itchyjunk] | Maybe much worse. | 21:24 |
| tinwhiskers | If it had emerged in the US i doubt the result would have been much different | 21:24 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh. Right :-) | 21:24 |
| tinwhiskers | *snap* | 21:24 |
| kungflu | /part ##chinese-apologists | 21:24 |
| [itchyjunk] | sounds like you have some china-issues. | 21:25 |
| kungflu | sounds like you have some US issues | 21:25 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't see why there is such a need to play the blame game | 21:25 |
| kungflu | we do know there were delays in china, so we can discuss thatg | 21:25 |
| [itchyjunk] | Sure, i have issue with every country. | 21:25 |
| [itchyjunk] | I just dont have a need to single out China. | 21:26 |
| tinwhiskers | Agreed | 21:26 |
| kungflu | you saying it would've been worse in washington dc is an assumption based on your bias | 21:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | What delays exactly? | 21:26 |
| kungflu | it's not grounded in reality | 21:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | They handed in samples 3 days after they sequenced it and knew it was novel. | 21:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | The data supression happened domestically in wuhan, sure. | 21:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | but international community had the same time as china to respond. | 21:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | and the best WHO did was "wash hands" | 21:26 |
| [itchyjunk] | Its not pendemic yet guys, lets wait a month | 21:27 |
| kungflu | so we have two people here who immediately claimed, without any basis in fact, that in the hypothetical case that the wuflu had begin in washignont that response would've been worse | 21:27 |
| [itchyjunk] | Lockdowns don't works guys, it's only a world health crisis | 21:27 |
| kungflu | that's an example of cognitive bias | 21:27 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: that's not true. the int'l community has had less time simply because china hid it for months | 21:27 |
| kungflu | people with such severe cognitive bias cannot be expected to have objective opinions overall | 21:27 |
| [itchyjunk] | bin_bash, what? | 21:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | WHO knew about it in Jan. | 21:28 |
| bin_bash | yes, and it was spreading since november | 21:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | Citaiton? | 21:28 |
| bin_bash | and china knew that | 21:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | Citaiton? | 21:28 |
| kungflu | so immediately we know [itchyjunk] and tinwhiskers's opinions on most everything covid-related should be taken with a grain of salt | 21:28 |
| kungflu | this effect is also seen among professional modelers | 21:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | Unlike yours. | 21:28 |
| [itchyjunk] | Unbiased. | 21:29 |
| tinwhiskers | Well that's just silly kungflu | 21:29 |
| kungflu | where their biases taint their results | 21:29 |
| [itchyjunk] | Atleast they can model stuff. | 21:29 |
| [itchyjunk] | Instead of blaming china for everything. | 21:29 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm merely pointing out that you are in too much of a rush to blame China. It doesn't help and shows your biases. | 21:30 |
| [itchyjunk] | S korea responded well beyond WHO's guidelines. | 21:30 |
| LjL | kungflu, if you think you're talking to people who have too strong cognitive biases to have a discussion with, then please just drop the discussion | 21:30 |
| kungflu | i am not that radical | 21:30 |
| [itchyjunk] | And WHO said those types of measures might be too "draconian" | 21:30 |
| kungflu | i don't think they should not be debated with, just that you need to discount their opinions. | 21:30 |
| LjL | the WHO has said a lot of things that have proven less than ideal to say IMO | 21:31 |
| [itchyjunk] | Yes | 21:31 |
| tinwhiskers | [09:17:39] <58afb3kungflu> they need to start cracking down on this illegal wild animal trading and terribly unsanitary practies. -- this is what kicked it off. | 21:31 |
| bin_bash | https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back | 21:31 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: ^^ | 21:31 |
| LjL | kungflu, what sense does it make to debate with someone while consistently discounting what they say (since that's ultimately what their opinions are)? | 21:31 |
| tinwhiskers | That's just knee-jerk stuff | 21:31 |
| [itchyjunk] | bin_bash, i;ve actually read that more than once. | 21:31 |
| [itchyjunk] | They say they first knew about the case in december | 21:31 |
| [itchyjunk] | which implies it might have been spreading since november | 21:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | which in itself is a guess but even given that, nothing says they knew about it in november. | 21:32 |
| kungflu | LjL: the hope is that by pointing out the deficiency in their argument that you change views | 21:32 |
| LjL | There have been statement by doctors here in Italy that the suspect it was *in Italy* already back in November, fwiw | 21:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | so can you point me to exact line that says they knew it in november? | 21:32 |
| bin_bash | early december too, and it was covered up. if it hadnt been covered up and if the government hadnt been pushing people to continue with the lunar new year crap then it wouldn't have spread as badly | 21:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | Covered up locally. | 21:32 |
| bin_bash | excuse me, i meant they knew about it early december, not november i did misspeak the first time | 21:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | They sequenced it end of december | 21:32 |
| bin_bash | locally if you mean china | 21:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | and informed it to WHO and CDC first week of jan | 21:33 |
| bin_bash | the chinese government covered it up to cover their own asses | 21:33 |
| Timvde | kungflu: there's research that says that if you contradict people by stating facts, they will just go in defense mode and double up on their views | 21:33 |
| [itchyjunk] | cover their asses from whom exactly? | 21:33 |
| kungflu | Timvde: uh oh! :) | 21:33 |
| Timvde | Note: I totally didn't follow the discussion | 21:34 |
| Timvde | Just read that one line :P | 21:34 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: from the ccp | 21:34 |
| tinwhiskers | Given how the US government also denied it was a problem I don't think we need to be unnecessarily casting stones at China | 21:34 |
| bin_bash | do you not understand how their top-down system works? | 21:34 |
| bin_bash | tinwhiskers: oh absolutely. | 21:34 |
| bin_bash | the cdc's response has been abysmal | 21:34 |
| slash_ | well china started this whole thing by supressing their own medical professionals | 21:34 |
| bin_bash | but partially that's because the pandemic response team was disbanded | 21:34 |
| [itchyjunk] | slash_, sure they suppressed their own media | 21:34 |
| bin_bash | they suppressed their own doctors | 21:35 |
| slash_ | and doctors who warned of the virus | 21:35 |
| bin_bash | they arrestyed them | 21:35 |
| [itchyjunk] | but cdc knew about this in Jan. their own official site has that data. | 21:35 |
| kungflu | they even killed one | 21:35 |
| [itchyjunk] | How did USA have less time than China to deal with this? | 21:35 |
| bin_bash | it was spreading for over a month unchecked | 21:35 |
| kungflu | li was kidnapped and then infected | 21:35 |
| slash_ | China knew about this early december? | 21:35 |
| bin_bash | oh and china encouraged people to continue with lunar new year celebrations | 21:35 |
| slash_ | maybe if they hadnt surpressed their medical professionals we couldve dealt with this such as SARS | 21:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | China knew about r_0 back then? | 21:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | China knew there was a new virus out. | 21:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | New viruses are discovered in humans every so often. | 21:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | Doesn't magically imply pandemic. | 21:36 |
| slash_ | yes, and then you take measures to suppress it, you dont silence medical professionals | 21:36 |
| bin_bash | when new viruses are discoverd the doctors arent arrested for informing people about it | 21:36 |
| bin_bash | except they were in china | 21:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | Unlike some experts here, they couldn't magically tell what would happen. | 21:37 |
| bin_bash | because that's how things are run there | 21:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | Oh? | 21:37 |
| bin_bash | why are you defending the ccp so hard [itchyjunk] | 21:37 |
| slash_ | if the Chinese government had acted quickly this would barely be in the news | 21:37 |
| bin_bash | it's really weird | 21:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | doctors have not been arrested anywhere else in the world? | 21:37 |
| kungflu | it is weird | 21:37 |
| bin_bash | and hnestly i think you might be a ccp plant | 21:37 |
| kungflu | probably a ccp bot | 21:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 20:32 UTC: Here's why Trump and Elon Musk see potential in a drug called chloroquine to treat coronavirus: The drug is known to be relatively safe and has been used to treat malaria since the 1940s. Can it be used to help people infected with the coronavirus? — from WHO at 20:32: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/1CwKAK | 21:37 |
| kungflu | they have them on twitter too | 21:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | Ah yes, i say what i know and its "hur dur why you defending them" | 21:37 |
| kungflu | the ccp pays people to repeat the party line | 21:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | and you do the same for other countries and its not defending. | 21:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | Nice double standards. | 21:37 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: please show me where else in modern times doctors have been arrested for alerting people to new diseases? | 21:37 |
| bin_bash | i'll wait | 21:37 |
| slash_ | yeah really? Chinese CCP failed, they let the virus spread, 3000+ Chinese people are dead because of that | 21:38 |
| rajrajraj | We argued a lot and I told her she is a chameleon who changes colour. The only purpose she has is to ruin nights. She said she wanna go back to her home | 21:38 |
| slash_ | fact is that it is extremely irresponsible of the Chinese government to disregard professional medical advice | 21:39 |
| kungflu | it is destroying economies, families, and communities globally | 21:39 |
| Bluebird | Guys, I have to go. C U tomorrow. Bye | 21:39 |
| kungflu | it is way beyond "extremely irresponsible" | 21:39 |
| slash_ | the CCP now has the blood of thousands accross the world on their hands | 21:39 |
| Brainstorm | I am a bot. Don't call other users bot. I'll get cross. | 21:39 |
| kungflu | it is criminal | 21:39 |
| kungflu | maybe the entire west should agree to cease all imports from china immediately | 21:40 |
| kungflu | until china pays reparations | 21:40 |
| slash_ | if only we could | 21:40 |
| slash_ | the west literally relies on China for medical materials atm | 21:41 |
| kungflu | yeah, most APIs from china or india | 21:41 |
| slash_ | it's a disgrace tbh | 21:41 |
| kungflu | that's got to be reversed asap | 21:41 |
| python476 | slash_: doesn't mean an orange president wont float the idea | 21:41 |
| tinwhiskers | There's been shoddy efforts by governments all around the world. This is a pointless discussion. | 21:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | Suddenly, #anti-china channel. | 21:41 |
| python476 | wait | 21:41 |
| python476 | it wasnt anti china from start ? Y U NO TELL ME | 21:42 |
| [itchyjunk] | <slash_> the CCP now has the blood of thousands accross the world on their hands | 21:42 |
| python476 | \s | 21:42 |
| slash_ | orange presidents dont concern me python476, I am from Europe, but we have failed here as well | 21:42 |
| kungflu | countries should not rely on others for critical medical supplies. this makes clear medical supply chains are national security concerns. | 21:42 |
| python476 | slash_: yeah | 21:42 |
| python476 | asking China to pay would be so subtle it's borderline impossible | 21:42 |
| [itchyjunk] | Yes, everyone make their own drugs so its more expensive. | 21:42 |
| slash_ | more expensive, yes | 21:42 |
| kungflu | cheap drugs or expensive pandemic | 21:42 |
| slash_ | it also saves lives in these situations | 21:42 |
| kungflu | the choice | 21:42 |
| ubLIX | Let's take a voluntary pause from this subject. | 21:43 |
| [itchyjunk] | Which drug would have saved lives here? | 21:43 |
| ubLIX | [itchyjunk]: that means you, too | 21:43 |
| slash_ | well for example [itchyjunk] we can't even make bloody paracetamol without resources from China, a BASIC painkiller | 21:44 |
| slash_ | it's disgusting | 21:44 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: i'm still waiting for the link showing where doctors have been arrested for talking about a new virus | 21:44 |
| bin_bash | or a new bacteria or parasite or anything | 21:44 |
| kungflu | you'll be waiting for a long time | 21:44 |
| slash_ | additionally many oncologic drugs also rely on resources from China, which are used to treat cancers | 21:44 |
| kungflu | heavy on opinion, light on fact | 21:44 |
| [itchyjunk] | bin_bash, "for talkign about new virus". i'm waiting for a link where china knew about it in november. | 21:45 |
| HeXiLeD | kungflu: china is now blaming the US for the source of virus | 21:45 |
| [itchyjunk] | sounds like we're even. | 21:45 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: i already corrected my statement and said it was december and i misspoke | 21:45 |
| HeXiLeD | anyone from portugal here? @ figuinhas https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal portuguese map very detailed. | 21:46 |
| slash_ | [itchyjunk] why do you insist on defending an authoritarian regime? We do not hate the Chinese people, only the government | 21:46 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: in case you missed it: <bin_bash> excuse me, i meant they knew about it early december, not november i did misspeak the first time | 21:46 |
| ubLIX | slash_ bin_bash : drop the subject | 21:46 |
| slash_ | ubLIX why? | 21:46 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-infects-cells.html | 21:46 |
| slash_ | [itchyjunk] 3,245 Chinese people have died due to the CCP's neglect | 21:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | "Zhou and his team used a tool called cryo electron microscopy, which employs deeply frozen samples and electron beams to image the tiniest structures of biological molecules. " | 21:47 |
| bin_bash | ubLIX: which part exactly do i need to drop? | 21:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | apparently, you can see the stuff at atom level | 21:48 |
| bin_bash | the entire covid discussion or what | 21:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | pretty impressive. | 21:48 |
| bin_bash | i'm just unclear on what ive done wrong | 21:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20567988 | 21:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:39 UTC: New York health workers raise concern over advice to work after virus exposure: City guidelines call on staffers to monitor their health but not self-quarantine after ‘high-risk’ contact with patients — from WHO at 20:39: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/k4LxJC | 21:49 |
| bin_bash | [itchyjunk]: yep electron microscopes are neat | 21:49 |
| ubLIX | I'd like it if we could stop throwing international blame around; it is making the channel too noisy. | 21:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | Bats have ACE-2 receptors too. so in theory, you don't need intermidiate species for the virus to go from bats to human | 21:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | so being in contact `might` be enough. "this week on virology" podcast touched on this. blaming the wetmarkets might not be enough | 21:50 |
| bin_bash | ubLIX: it's relevant to the epidemiology but ok | 21:50 |
| ryouma | small correction in* virology (twiv) | 21:52 |
| tinwhiskers | if the podcast is called "Virology" then on is fine. This week, on "Virology". | 21:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | oh, he's right. the podcasts calls themselves twiv. so it must be in. | 21:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | I just realized what you corrected | 21:55 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh. I see | 21:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | Does anyone have any followup on this pre-print? https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.988345v1 | 21:56 |
| [itchyjunk] | I can't find any other information about SARS-CoV-2 with respect to CD147 receptors. | 21:57 |
| dividediff[m] | Can only testing ppl who: have known exposure to someone with the virus, or have travelled to hotspots | 21:59 |
| dividediff[m] | as of March 19, 2020 | 21:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | Looks like they were studying it in context of SARS-CoV but then nothing | 21:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15688292 | 21:59 |
| dividediff[m] | * CAN only testing ppl who: have known exposure to someone with the virus, or have travelled to hotspots | 21:59 |
| dividediff[m] | as of March 19, 2020 | 21:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | ah canada | 22:00 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: not ah canada, o canada :p (antheme) | 22:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:53 UTC: US state department warns against all Americans leaving country amid pandemic – live: Advisory says US citizens living abroad should avoid international travel Trump sows confusion with claim drug will be ready soon Coronavirus – latest global updates See all our coronavirus coverage Support the Guardian’s [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/2triVA | 22:01 |
| [itchyjunk] | I don't think we've ever had the need to such large scale sequencing so it's a bottleneck resource in early phase. | 22:02 |
| [itchyjunk] | Sequencing is probably gonna get cheaper after all this is over. | 22:02 |
| dividediff[m] | When are peak hrs in grocery stores now that evyone tries to avoid peak hrs? | 22:02 |
| ryouma | because there are lots of variants? | 22:02 |
| ryouma | somebody pinged me in the last 12h or so but my log does not show it | 22:02 |
| [itchyjunk] | variants of what? | 22:03 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], depends on stores locations. | 22:03 |
| flux1 | dividediff: try checking google maps data on the store? | 22:04 |
| python476 | who thinks outdoor cinema with employees checking only one person per car would be a great idea ? | 22:06 |
| [itchyjunk] | It might also depends on when the store re-stocks and how publicly available that data is. | 22:07 |
| [itchyjunk] | I've noticed toilet paper restocking time is a peak traffic for a lot of store. | 22:07 |
| pwr22 | > Super weird, there is only a cleaner and myself on the platform at bath for the past 10 mins. And constant announcements about the virus. It's like one of those post apocalyptic movies or games. | 22:07 |
| pwr22 | Finally UK seems to be behaving appropriately | 22:07 |
| dividediff[m] | ty | 22:08 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: as long as the employee is wearing like a hazmat suit. There is also the bathroom problems, esp for women | 22:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | What is the bathroom problem? | 22:09 |
| python476 | having some | 22:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | Do public restrooms have toilet papers? Some got stolen, I assume. | 22:10 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: if a dude needs to pee, he could find a bush, which means minimal touching and easy to pick a diff bush than another dude. | 22:11 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: if a woman needs to pee, it's harder for her to avoid people in the bathroom since all women have to go to said location at a venue basically | 22:11 |
| python476 | bonus point, there's no handles when there's no toilet | 22:11 |
| dividediff[m] | Apparently lots of ppl are upset with pornhub for giving italy free access. Bc it's 'porn hub trying to profit of a crisis'. Can someone explain whats wrong with pornhub trying to make ppl stay inside? | 22:13 |
| X-Scale | *it's just a common flu*, say the useful idiots -> https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/19/army-trucks-filled-bodies-overflowing-morgues-drive-streets-italy-12423685/ | 22:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | Hm, burial plot is a limited resource in some parts of the world. Europe in general might be such a place. | 22:19 |
| bin_bash | uesless idiots imo | 22:19 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], the issue as i understood it on local news was that the local crematorium was outpaced. | 22:19 |
| bin_bash | apparently you can see the mass iranian graves from space | 22:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | Oh, they are using crematorium mostly? | 22:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | I am not sure what parts of the worlds prefer burial, tbh. | 22:20 |
| tinwhiskers | You can see most individual graves from space | 22:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | I assumes it's linked with religion. | 22:20 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], we generally prefer burial, but i'm not sure a choice is being presented at this time | 22:21 |
| tinwhiskers | But there was video footage at the Iranian Mass grave showing 80 bodies when the official death toll was around 40, so that's a bit more damning | 22:21 |
| [itchyjunk] | It seems to only take an hour to 3 to cremate 1 body. ~6 a day / machine maybe? | 22:21 |
| bin_bash | tinwhiskers: in retrospect, youre right, with satellite imagery you can see pretty much anything from space | 22:22 |
| LjL | not a subject i'm eager to investigate, tbh | 22:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | It would probably be up to the family to choose to bury or cremate? | 22:22 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], normally it would be, but normally we have a constitutional right to free movement, too | 22:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | Hm, I don't think they would take that choice away from you already but I might be wrong. | 22:23 |
| LjL | cremation is frowned upon by the catholic church, and so i assume by many italians. but i don't think it's considered a really huge insult to the deceased the way it can be in the islamic world | 22:23 |
| [itchyjunk] | Do Italians pre-purchase plots to be buried in? | 22:24 |
| [itchyjunk] | I know it's a big thing in USA. | 22:24 |
| LjL | not exactly, not plots, partly because our cemeteries rarely look like large grass fields. but families can purchase or rent a chapel | 22:25 |
| LjL | i think it's always a rental in reality | 22:25 |
| slash_ | 25k+ cases today worldwide... we are starting to enter a global exponential phase | 22:25 |
| slash_ | so many countries increasing rapidly | 22:25 |
| bin_bash | because testing really | 22:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:21 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Deaths cross 10,000 worldwide — from WHO at 21:21: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/mcepxG | 22:26 |
| LjL | when testing is "bootstrapped" and many cases were around before testing was, you can sometimes see it in the graphs | 22:26 |
| slash_ | not sure, testing is really bad in most of western Europe at | 22:26 |
| slash_ | atm | 22:26 |
| LjL | i think if the graph looks more like a "clean" exponential, then chances are it is | 22:26 |
| LjL | of course you have to look at the individual countries to make this distinction | 22:26 |
| slash_ | we have 2460 cases, but it is "estimated" at 6x that by official government agencies (so around 14760) | 22:27 |
| slash_ | we only test people admitted to hospital atm | 22:27 |
| HeXiLeD | we ? | 22:28 |
| HeXiLeD | who is we? | 22:28 |
| slash_ | sorry, I meant Netherlands | 22:28 |
| HeXiLeD | ah | 22:29 |
| slash_ | but it's all guesses unless we properly test ofc | 22:29 |
| LjL | don't hold your breath for "proper" testing anywhere... | 22:29 |
| LjL | which would involve random sampling over wide areas | 22:29 |
| LjL | i mean, maybe do hold your breath, as there are many countries, and some are bound to do it | 22:30 |
| LjL | but i wouldn't expect it from many | 22:30 |
| slash_ | LjL I don't, unless we somehow manage to produce them ourselves, our buy a lot from other countries | 22:30 |
| slash_ | LjL but buying isnt seeming to work atm | 22:30 |
| LjL | slash_, we sent 500k test kits to the US yesterday, and yet we are also only testing serious hospitalized cases, so i guess in our cases at least, it's more about personnel than physical test kits | 22:31 |
| LjL | either that, or US dollars are worth more than tested italians | 22:31 |
| HeXiLeD | LjL: who is we in that case? | 22:31 |
| LjL | HeXiLeD, italy. | 22:31 |
| HeXiLeD | ah | 22:31 |
| slash_ | LjL at least Italy has enough tests then | 22:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | It wasn't test kits, was it? | 22:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | It was test swabs. | 22:32 |
| HeXiLeD | and italy has enough to be sending to the US ? | 22:32 |
| bin_bash | nobody has enough tests | 22:32 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], i'm really not sure | 22:32 |
| HeXiLeD | bin_bash: that is what i think | 22:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/us-air-force-flew-half-million-coronavirus-test-kits-italy-tennessee/163879/ | 22:32 |
| [itchyjunk] | Swabs, it seems. | 22:32 |
| HeXiLeD | italy should not be sending anything to anyone. | 22:32 |
| HeXiLeD | specially to the US. they shit on everyone | 22:33 |
| slash_ | US is going to be a major outbreak location though | 22:33 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], fair enough | 22:33 |
| [itchyjunk] | CDC was sending entire kits early on to bunch of countries. | 22:33 |
| [itchyjunk] | So not sure what you mean by "shit on everyone". | 22:33 |
| LjL | HeXiLeD, let's not go back to who shits on whom, i've seen enough of this kind of discussion for today | 22:33 |
| slash_ | it is in all our interest that we know how affected the US is I think | 22:33 |
| HeXiLeD | priorities and triage | 22:34 |
| HeXiLeD | italy needs more help than the rest now | 22:34 |
| bin_bash | we give the most foreign aid of any country so please don't start with that shit HeXiLeD. | 22:34 |
| slash_ | [itchyjunk] CDC was sending out tests? really? | 22:34 |
| bin_bash | oops i was scrollled up | 22:34 |
| LjL | HeXiLeD, well, Italy is getting most of the help from China at this point, at least in public perception. i think other countries should decide whether they want to keep all the help for themselves and brace for impact, and live in a world where Italy is a province of China later, or... not. i could probably understand either decision. | 22:35 |
| slash_ | [itchyjunk] didn't the US had faulty tests at first? and that is why they are so lacking in tests atm | 22:35 |
| HeXiLeD | LjL: agree | 22:36 |
| tinwhiskers | It's always puzzled me why they always refer to kits, because it's really about quantities of reagents, then last night one of our medical experts says the same. We're not limited by any number of tests per se here, but I guess some places get it in kit forms. Seems terribly inefficient. | 22:36 |
| HeXiLeD | bin_bash: the rest of the world prefers not. anyway this is another topic. should not be here. | 22:36 |
| HeXiLeD | how many times can one use a test? | 22:37 |
| tinwhiskers | Once | 22:37 |
| HeXiLeD | or a kit? | 22:37 |
| HeXiLeD | very limited. not really effective if one does not isolate | 22:37 |
| tinwhiskers | I guess they just come packaged with all the correct quantities of reagents to make it simple | 22:37 |
| HeXiLeD | are there any prices for these kits? | 22:37 |
| bin_bash | except some of the ones the cdc sent out to the states lol | 22:37 |
| slash_ | LjL we are looking for domestic production of masks and tests atm :S we've outsourced so much, it's a huge issue | 22:37 |
| tinwhiskers | bin_bash: lol | 22:38 |
| bin_bash | theyve been fucking this up so badly it's embarrassing | 22:38 |
| LjL | yes, i think so too. it might be inefficient but human resources are perhaps more critical, so, you may need to make even people who are not perfectly trained, and may take a longer time to do stuff, do these tests. kits make sense then | 22:38 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 22:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:35 UTC: /u/slakmehl: US Senator Richard Burr, who as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee had access to the nation's mostly highly classified secrets, appears to have sold off a significant percentage of his stock holdings (and of his entire reported net worth) at the same time he was publicly lauding US [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/wECQoS | 22:38 |
| LjL | slash_, so are we. the problem is only in the past few days we "have been looking" for that, meaning making laws facilitating it. i feel it's just a tad late | 22:38 |
| slash_ | LjL we're all late! So damn late... our governments should have never allowed critical care supplies to be outsourced | 22:39 |
| LjL | https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israel-takes-step-monitoring-phones-virus-patients-69611060 i think Lombardy has sort of done this, sort of quietly, but more population-wise | 22:40 |
| LjL | slash_, sure, we're all late, but there's degrees of late. i'm sure you're up to date with our numbers | 22:40 |
| slash_ | LjL but complaining about the past does not help either I suppose, so we must now do what we can to start up these productions | 22:40 |
| tinwhiskers | Right | 22:40 |
| slash_ | LjL my government seems even more late than yours... and we had advance warning :X | 22:41 |
| LjL | so did we, so did everyone but china | 22:41 |
| slash_ | yeah | 22:42 |
| slash_ | but, to stop the virus like they did in Wuhan, it requires such a massive lockdown for so long | 22:43 |
| HeXiLeD | slash_: yes | 22:43 |
| LjL | yes it's not a lot of fun. but neither is dying | 22:43 |
| HeXiLeD | needs to be done all over | 22:43 |
| slash_ | but can we? | 22:44 |
| slash_ | the only way for it to succeed is for it to be done GLOBALLY | 22:44 |
| HeXiLeD | this thing letting humans think about it what is best to do and political correctness, will only lead to more infected | 22:44 |
| ryouma | LjL: province of china? | 22:44 |
| HeXiLeD | yes | 22:44 |
| LjL | ryouma, as a figure of speech | 22:44 |
| tinwhiskers | I think some people value their "right to freedom" too much and will go against the rules on principle | 22:44 |
| ryouma | LjL: for? | 22:45 |
| tinwhiskers | *misguided principle | 22:45 |
| slash_ | I really do not think it is feasible at all for all the world to enter a sort of lockdown such as in Wuhan at the same time | 22:45 |
| HeXiLeD | tinwhiskers:indeed. | 22:45 |
| LjL | i think this "right to freedom" is quite damned valuable, and when i heard today someone belittling it on TV i was unhappy. it's just that in this particular, unusual circumstances, it gets deprioritized. which IS a big deal. | 22:45 |
| LjL | ryouma, it should be put in context of the rest of what i was saying, i believe. you're just interjecting now after several minutes... | 22:46 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yes, we don't want to erode it but it's critical we don't play political games when it's this important right now | 22:46 |
| ryouma | LjL: sorry, just caught my eye amid abunch of unrelated political stuff | 22:46 |
| ryouma | because said by you | 22:46 |
| tinwhiskers | Some countries are more at risk of erosion than others | 22:46 |
| HeXiLeD | what people do not seem to understand is that the freedom of one person ends where the freedom of another starts. So if the freedom of person A ends by killing person B, then person A loses that right. | 22:46 |
| LjL | well surprise, i have nothing against discussing this from a political viewpoint, because a lot of what's happening is political | 22:46 |
| ryouma | (caught my eye becauyse said by yuo) | 22:46 |
| LjL | that doesn't mean i liked the prior discussion, which i left before dinner | 22:47 |
| HeXiLeD | western europe may be finished in the .eu | 22:47 |
| LjL | the discussion was going at a pace that basically made anything a third party may say almost certainly not even be noticed (i kind of checked). now an animated discussion can be a good thing, but it was also filled with allegations of people being pro or against this or that, and that was pretty ugly. i looked at it happen for a while and honestly i didn't know how to react, if at all, but i knew it looked ugly. | 22:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | So I assume each country it want to restrict exports of good that they deem necessary. | 22:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | So naturally, you'ed expect a squeeze. | 22:48 |
| HeXiLeD | this is a good time to get self driving commercial vehicles and machinery to take care of exports as much as possible | 22:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | Questions is, what all would experience the squeeze? | 22:49 |
| LjL | ryouma, but the thing if you want to me elaborate is simple, if all the help comes from China, well, it's not going to be "free" help, they aren't donating anything. it comes with both contracts, with money specified in them, and with a public perception that will now be more favorable towards china, making *more* future contracts even easier on the one hand, as the public will accept them, and almost unavoidable on the other, as the debt we'll have with | 22:49 |
| LjL | china may be so great we may not have much other choice. | 22:49 |
| dividediff[m] | About companies having corona sales, some ppl like: "Turning a global problem into a disgust marketing ploy! 🤮" | 22:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | We're not at that point with self driving. | 22:49 |
| slash_ | what annoys me a bit, is the people who treat this as a national issue, this is not a national issue, this literally affects all nations on earth | 22:49 |
| HeXiLeD | [itchyjunk]: true. needs to be sped up | 22:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | Nations act as an organism. | 22:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | Ergo, self preservation is formost for them. | 22:50 |
| [itchyjunk] | Example, baling out industries early on. | 22:50 |
| HeXiLeD | but some places could do it at borders to have trucks passing the border and be picked up by a new driver on the other side | 22:50 |
| slash_ | [itchyjunk] but in this case self-preservation is harmful | 22:50 |
| LjL | slash_, no, but the borders are enforced mostly at a national level, and requisitions happen at a national level, if they do. it's unavoidable that there will be country specificity | 22:50 |
| slash_ | who are you going to trade with if no one else is left? | 22:50 |
| tinwhiskers | That's a bit of a leap | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:40 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Italy death toll rises to 3,405, overtaking China — from WHO at 21:40: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/domI8y | 22:51 |
| [itchyjunk] | slash_, not sure. | 22:51 |
| [itchyjunk] | May or maynot be true. | 22:51 |
| LjL | trading partners who are at a disadvantage are usually good trading partners to have, if you are exploitative | 22:51 |
| slash_ | LjL no I am referring to the international nature of the virus | 22:51 |
| slash_ | LjL no border stops it | 22:51 |
| LjL | slash_, and yet, we are proposing lockdowns to stop it. lockdowns partly involve having borders, actually many more borders than even at the worst of times | 22:52 |
| [itchyjunk] | We know for sure nations will exist. | 22:52 |
| ryouma | what is kind of amazing politically is that covering up, or failing to contain, does not work. and this was predictable. in tons of countries nobody making decisions seems to have understood that. | 22:52 |
| [itchyjunk] | Even if 10% of infected died, there would still be a country left. | 22:52 |
| tinwhiskers | This is not some sort of civilisation-ending event | 22:52 |
| [itchyjunk] | Right. | 22:52 |
| LjL | ryouma, "failing to contain does not work" seems to be a bit of a truism... | 22:52 |
| [itchyjunk] | This is a -GDP event as far as the economic body of a nation is concerned. | 22:53 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, it could certainly be a civilization-changing even though, actually i'd say it's almost certain to be | 22:53 |
| tinwhiskers | Sure | 22:53 |
| [itchyjunk] | Sure | 22:53 |
| LjL | Sure | 22:53 |
| slash_ | LjL well lockdowns help to reduce spread of course, but for how long? You cannot end a lockdown if the virus is still spreading in other parts of thw world | 22:53 |
| twomoon | agree with ljl | 22:53 |
| [itchyjunk] | But that hardly changes what I said about how a nation would react if we consider a nation a self preserving entity. | 22:53 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: you can end a lockdown within your borders | 22:54 |
| aradesh | LjL: what kind of changes could you imagine coming out of it? | 22:54 |
| LjL | slash_, which is why China is now having a bit of a problem with "return virus". however, tight borders do help against it... partly depending on geography of course. an island can protect borders better than a landlocked state surrounded by plains | 22:54 |
| slash_ | tinwhiskers you mean without opening outside borders? | 22:54 |
| tinwhiskers | People can move around again until/unless you get another peak, but you need to keep your borders closed to many/most countries until a vaccine is ready | 22:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | China has infrastructures to track foreign visitors within the country though. | 22:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | Maybe the west has it too but they have never acknowladged it openly. | 22:55 |
| slash_ | LjL yes of course borders help | 22:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | But back to my original question, what exact items do you think will be scarce in comming months? | 22:55 |
| ryouma | covering up + containing requires actions that will be visible. so why did they try to cover up. failing to contain will be visible. | 22:56 |
| LjL | aradesh, i think i'll mostly go as far as expecting radical changes, but stop short of predicting what they will be, because i have no crystal ball. but do you want guesses, with the understanding it's just guesses and not strong beliefs of mine? surveillance will become much more commonplace and accepted (as this event will endorse it as a positive thing, if it helps stop the virus), China will have a very powerful influence on Europe, and Italy in | 22:56 |
| LjL | particular. Africa will lose what little political structure it has. borders, national but possibly even within nations, will be strictly enforced for a long time, and free travel will no longer be taken for granted even within your own country. | 22:56 |
| ryouma | it seems moronic to make the decision to cover up | 22:56 |
| ryouma | early on | 22:56 |
| LjL | aradesh, i believe more than being true or false, these guesses are going to be very limited compared to the changes we'll really see. my imagination is limited. | 22:56 |
| slash_ | LjL but I mean, we cannot return to normalcy, it will spread the virus across the globe in no time again, if we want to lift nationwide lockdowns we must have extremely strict border control between nations | 22:57 |
| python476 | how many people would die if some low grade president get feverish and triggers nukes ? | 22:57 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, for about 12-18 months | 22:57 |
| aradesh | LjL: i agree with you | 22:57 |
| LjL | slash_, yes... that's pretty much what i'm saying, although there is always the chance we find a vaccine and deploy it widely. | 22:57 |
| aradesh | hard to predict exactly what | 22:57 |
| oriba | have fun with Corona: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETeCGU1XQAAX0Yf?format=jpg | 22:58 |
| python476 | oriba: few days earlier paris was also not following confinement | 22:58 |
| LjL | oriba, that's a Paris with too many cars going around, if you ask me (and if you ask the Chinese doctors delegation here) | 22:58 |
| [itchyjunk] | Example: India is the largest exporter of rice. Say India decides they want to not export it but store it during the crisis. | 22:59 |
| slash_ | LjL yes we agree :p sorry, I am not very good at making my points in English always. | 22:59 |
| python476 | meanwhile there are absolutely no cars on the Florida photo ! | 22:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | What other items do you think will be horded by nations? | 22:59 |
| python476 | TP | 22:59 |
| python476 | jkl | 22:59 |
| LjL | [itchyjunk], also, they are the largest exporter of generic medicines. say they... wait, they already have. | 22:59 |
| [itchyjunk] | They also export percursers. | 23:00 |
| slash_ | Lj: also, yes, a vaccine will help us all a lot | 23:00 |
| python476 | but honestly not fully kidding.. since people hoarded just about anything.. I believe nations will also grab anything | 23:00 |
| [itchyjunk] | But no point hording those unless you have use for it. | 23:00 |
| aradesh | apparently people have decided it's now a good time to start looting shops in london https://streamable.com/vf1yl | 23:00 |
| dividediff[m] | "Iran’s minister of communication gives each citizen a free 100GB internet to encourage people stay in their homes." | 23:00 |
| [itchyjunk] | So while I think some specific medications might be scarce, I don't think all of them will be. | 23:00 |
| slash_ | LjL a vaccine might be a way to return to our previous normalcy | 23:00 |
| [itchyjunk] | 100GB internet. So they can update their xBox once. | 23:00 |
| LjL | slash_, but as the little attept at an underhanded deal between Trump and that German firm showed, there is interested in vaccinating one's own population *first*. that doesn't mean leaving the others to die, but when resources are limited, you want to have a lead, grim as it is in this case | 23:01 |
| tinwhiskers | slash_: people have short memories but not *that* short | 23:01 |
| dividediff[m] | aradesh: whats the date vid was recorded? | 23:01 |
| python476 | aradesh: bro | 23:01 |
| python476 | surreal | 23:01 |
| Spitfire | aradesh, got an actual source for that? | 23:01 |
| Spitfire | aradesh, could easily be a video from the 2011 riots | 23:01 |
| ryouma | the good news is that there is a big biomedical effort to deal with a particular disease. that is rare. | 23:01 |
| aradesh | i guess it could be | 23:02 |
| aradesh | let's see if i can find out | 23:02 |
| python476 | yeah let's journalist | 23:02 |
| LjL | slash_, only if you assume that normalcy is attained by just "this virus going away". this virus may go away, but i think there will be profound changes to our world situation. just think of the amount of deaths this virus will case in specific age groups. that will mean sweeping political changes (for better or worse, i'll leave that to guesses and opinions; i'm just saying sweeping changes will occur) | 23:02 |
| dividediff[m] | Spitfire: i was wary of that too. Russian gov apparently will do things like that | 23:02 |
| slash_ | LjL yeah... it is disgusting but it's true | 23:02 |
| slash_ | LjL I meant as to what previously was considered normal | 23:03 |
| ryouma | memory of the past might go a little bit if so | 23:03 |
| romare | is soar throat a common symptom? | 23:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:00 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus Australia: medical certificate needed for childcare subsidy if children kept home — from WHO at 22:00: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/yJWYO7 | 23:03 |
| aradesh | Spitfire: yeah sounds like you're right | 23:03 |
| ryouma | is pharygitis sore throat? 2%. | 23:03 |
| slash_ | Ljl personally, I disagree with a globalised economy, we are simply not ready for this and this crisis shows that we sure as hell cannot handle it because we as nations are too damn divided | 23:03 |
| aradesh | Spitfire: 2011 | 23:03 |
| ryouma | is pharygitis sore throat? 2% for that or tonsil enlargement. | 23:03 |
| python476 | aradesh: heh | 23:04 |
| ryouma | or is sorea throat laryngitis? | 23:04 |
| Spitfire | aradesh, rgr, looked familiar | 23:04 |
| aradesh | good spot | 23:04 |
| romare | ryouma: I don't know the difference | 23:04 |
| slash_ | LjL we can have a globalised economy maybe in the future, but right now, it damages us all | 23:04 |
| LjL | romare, if you don't have fever or cough or shortness of breath, you probably shouldn't jump to any conclusions | 23:04 |
| romare | ok | 23:05 |
| romare | I feel like I have fever but it could be my anxiety too | 23:05 |
| LjL | slash_, well, if the "afterwards" comes with a *non*-globalized economy, that will, in itself, be a huge change from what we're now used to. it won't be normalcy. | 23:05 |
| LjL | romare, do you have a thermometer? please have a thermometer. | 23:05 |
| python476 | Spitfire: allow to rant about <young consumerist generations with no real taste in music> | 23:05 |
| romare | LjL: I don't | 23:05 |
| LjL | seriously why has everyone hoarded toilet paper but then people here turn out to not even own a thermometer? | 23:05 |
| ryouma | are thermometers even available anyplace? | 23:06 |
| slash_ | romare just try to get a long night of rest and see how you feel :) | 23:06 |
| ubLIX | ryouma: pharyngitis is pretty much sore throat; could include enlarged tonsils; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharyngitis | 23:06 |
| romare | slash_: ok | 23:06 |
| tinwhiskers | I got a thermometer last week. I only read 36.9C but my wife measures 37.4. I may be a lizard | 23:06 |
| LjL | ryouma, maybe not anymore, but i feel we've had more than enough time to buy thermometers while this unfolded | 23:06 |
| dunnp | does everyone not already have a thermometer? | 23:07 |
| [itchyjunk] | I don't. | 23:07 |
| LjL | dunnp, apparently not | 23:07 |
| LjL | anyway, i can still buy thermometers on Prime, fwiw, so... | 23:07 |
| python476 | LjL: let's write all this down | 23:07 |
| dunnp | what do you do when you get sick? | 23:07 |
| LjL | python476, write what down | 23:07 |
| dividediff[m] | i have 2 thermometers. 1 for meat 1 for flu. They both have about teh same accuracy | 23:07 |
| dunnp | I have maybe 12 for meat | 23:07 |
| python476 | in times of crisis most people have no focus on the actual matter and will panic hoard and hide | 23:07 |
| dunnp | heh | 23:08 |
| [itchyjunk] | Crawl into a fetal position and dry. | 23:08 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: average body temp of humans has decreased over the last some decades | 23:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh | 23:08 |
| [itchyjunk] | I don't have cooking thermometer either. | 23:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Nifty | 23:08 |
| python476 | so we need some minister to direct them into doing useful steps | 23:08 |
| LjL | python476, do you think telling them they should act differently will make any difference? i admire your optimism. but also, it's probably late now for telling people what to buy and what not to buy | 23:08 |
| dividediff[m] | dunnp: do you check ur temp evy time you get sick? | 23:08 |
| slash_ | LjL with normalcy I mean the current globalized system! | 23:08 |
| dunnp | dividediff[m]: when my kids do.. | 23:08 |
| python476 | LjL: 100% of the population no, 50% maybe | 23:08 |
| dunnp | or when i feel feverish | 23:08 |
| LjL | slash_, so... we won't get back to it? | 23:08 |
| dunnp | [itchyjunk]: gotta get into BBQ | 23:08 |
| python476 | also society is a tissue, when 30% does something the rest copy a bit more | 23:09 |
| tinwhiskers | So if my baseline temperature is 36.9 and it goes up to 37.5 then I have a minor fever but the hospital would say I'm still normal | 23:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | dunnp, i wing it. | 23:09 |
| dunnp | you cant wing BBQ | 23:09 |
| dunnp | I assume you mean grilling | 23:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | Not with that attitude. | 23:09 |
| LjL | 37.5 is considered a mild fever for most people over here | 23:09 |
| oriba | yesterday I also had the impressionof too high body temp. But I feel fine today... hmhh it's abit cold... ok, switch on heater... | 23:09 |
| slash_ | LjL well I don't know! I do not prefer it, it is the system that made this virus spread globally basically | 23:09 |
| [itchyjunk] | Nope, I wing BBQ. | 23:09 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: oh really? | 23:09 |
| dunnp | you can you wing 195F for a nice butt | 23:09 |
| dunnp | 200 and its ruined | 23:09 |
| romare | now I want BBQ... | 23:10 |
| dividediff[m] | dunnp: just in case it's severe basically? I've only used mine once, i had a bad fever | 23:10 |
| [itchyjunk] | anywhere between 170 and 220 is fine for me. | 23:10 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, it really depends on the person, and the dividing lines are arbitrary, but yes, typically >37 is considered at least a mild fever here. the government directives say you SHOULD stay home (not yet MUST) if you are over 37.5 | 23:10 |
| X-Scale | https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland | 23:10 |
| slash_ | LjL we're all still very divided, we are not a global country by any stretch of the imagination | 23:10 |
| dunnp | dividediff[m]: I can't feel how bad they feel so it is a good proxy | 23:10 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: I see. Thanks | 23:10 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, but really, not only does it depend on the person, it depends on where you measure it too, so it's all pretty arbitrary. if people had thermometers and used them sometimes, they'd probably know what's normal for them ;P | 23:11 |
| romare | slash_: which country? | 23:11 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: see here (also has a link to the scientific study) https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-human-body-temperatures-cooling-down/ | 23:11 |
| dividediff[m] | dunnp: huh, i'll keep that in mind if i have kds thanks | 23:11 |
| dunnp | [itchyjunk]: 170 is raw.. | 23:11 |
| dunnp | no rendered fat | 23:11 |
| [itchyjunk] | I would say "its not cooked" | 23:11 |
| slash_ | romare I mean all of them... | 23:11 |
| [itchyjunk] | but i wouldn't saw "raw" | 23:11 |
| LjL | slash_, and Europe is showing it is very divided within it, and that the EU is practically nonexistent when push comes to shove... i'm not really sure we're saying different things here | 23:11 |
| dunnp | hmm | 23:12 |
| dividediff[m] | dunnp: oh and you sound like a good parent! | 23:12 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], how about you keep it in mind anyway, and get a thermometer? | 23:12 |
| dunnp | lol dividediff[m] my kids watched youtube all day :/ | 23:12 |
| LjL | really ffs, fever is *the* symptom that should make people stay at home, aside from cough. HAVE THERMOMETERS | 23:12 |
| LjL | not ten of them, one of them will be enough. then you can buy ten toilet paper rolls if you really must. | 23:12 |
| [itchyjunk] | dunnp, and fat renders at 140+ F | 23:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | just not fully | 23:13 |
| HeXiLeD | speaking of thermometers. I have been dwelling on non contact gun type. The doubt is from medical and industrial. ($$ also counts) i had this in mind https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01DR066WU/?coliid=I3QZPU4ZEYLUXV&colid=37CHBSBH3XX44&psc=0&ref_=lv_ov_lig_dp_it any feedback? i wonder about the accuracy. | 23:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://cooking.stackexchange.com/questions/36638/at-what-temperature-will-the-fats-on-meat-render | 23:13 |
| slash_ | LjL I am not disagreeing with you on this, I am only saying we need to be more united as a world | 23:13 |
| LjL | HeXiLeD, i suspect the ones that can measure very high temperatures may not be great for distinguishing between shades of 37° | 23:13 |
| slash_ | LjL but I ofc have absolutely no clue whatsoever how to achieve this :( | 23:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | Depends on how you measure it as well. | 23:13 |
| [itchyjunk] | How do you measure it? | 23:13 |
| dunnp | right [itchyjunk] for sous vide but it has to sit there a while | 23:13 |
| HeXiLeD | LjL: yah that is what i wonder too. | 23:13 |
| dunnp | but good point | 23:14 |
| [itchyjunk] | Inside mouth? inside arm pit? inside .. ? | 23:14 |
| slash_ | LjL maybe this virus brings us all a bit close together because it's a common enemy? idk, only time will tell | 23:14 |
| dunnp | im ready for some bbq now | 23:14 |
| LjL | slash_, we'll figure out something when this is over if we survive, i guess | 23:14 |
| HeXiLeD | seems armpit is not the most accurate | 23:14 |
| dunnp | I got a pork butt since it was some of the only meat left in the store | 23:14 |
| dividediff[m] | Can't ppl always feel when they have a fever? Whenever i have a fever it's obvious? | 23:14 |
| LjL | HeXiLeD, armpit is okay imo but you have to let it sit for a good 5 minutes at least, DON'T rely on digital thermometers beeping. most of them are dumb. | 23:15 |
| slash_ | LjL I mean this is not a threat just a nation, this virus is a threat to all humans on this planet | 23:15 |
| [itchyjunk] | I can't tell if its tiny fever. | 23:15 |
| [itchyjunk] | I knew i had it when it was 40 C | 23:15 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: are tiny fevers a problem in general? | 23:15 |
| LjL | i wouldn't know anything if i had 40°C fever | 23:15 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], all fevers are symptoms, imho. | 23:15 |
| slash_ | LjL let us just hope that all this misery at least has some positive outcome at the end | 23:16 |
| [itchyjunk] | Its your body turning up the heat to help kill pathogens possibly | 23:16 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], what sort of question is that? a fever means you have an infection or some other health issue. it is an indication. then in some cases it may just mean you stay home and have a cup of hot tea. | 23:16 |
| [itchyjunk] | but i am not a researcher in the field like dunnp, so ask her. | 23:16 |
| dividediff[m] | Do fevers ever occur without other symptoms if someone has an infection? | 23:16 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], with COVID-19, if you're running a mild fever, you are actually likely to be pretty infectious, so yeah, if you have 38°C and you don't realize it because you haven't bought a thermometer, and you walk around anyway, you're only just short of murdering people at this time. | 23:16 |
| dunnp | I'm not an MD - I dono either :) | 23:17 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], yes | 23:17 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], yes | 23:17 |
| dividediff[m] | Like when i have flus/colds, i get cough/runny nose first, fever a few days later | 23:17 |
| [itchyjunk] | dunnp, but you are a D | 23:17 |
| [itchyjunk] | some kind of a D | 23:17 |
| dunnp | PhD | 23:17 |
| [itchyjunk] | yes, that D | 23:17 |
| slash_ | LjL they say that to unite humanity we need something that threatens all of humanity | 23:17 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], well, COVID-19 doesn't give you a runny nose. it can give you cough, but fever is actually more common than cough, so there will be infectious people with a fever but no cold. | 23:17 |
| dunnp | but so is python476 | 23:17 |
| LjL | err, cough. | 23:17 |
| [itchyjunk] | oh is he? | 23:17 |
| LjL | slash_, i am not convinced, but we'll see | 23:17 |
| [itchyjunk] | python476, what kind of a D are you? | 23:18 |
| dividediff[m] | TIL ty | 23:18 |
| Biep[m] | <bin_bash "do you not understand how their "> You are so right-on. That is also why I can't believe they really managed containment. Their society simply doesn't work that way. | 23:18 |
| [itchyjunk] | acidic? basic? neutral? | 23:18 |
| LjL | i want to say what kind of D python476 is but... | 23:18 |
| dunnp | heh | 23:18 |
| slash_ | LjL neither am I... but I like to hope for the future :) | 23:18 |
| slash_ | we will see | 23:18 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], everyone is different, but sometimes i'm not sure whether i'm just feeling very tired, or i actually have something. then i check my temperature. if it's normal, i'm quite possibly just tired. if it's not normal, then that's a good indication i can infect others with whatever i have (regardless of COVID) | 23:19 |
| dunnp | I think the idea is that even a mild fever is a good indicator - even if you can't feel it yourself | 23:19 |
| dividediff[m] | How do i establish my temperature baseline w a thermometer? Like do i check my temperature first thing in the morning, or after eating, etc. | 23:19 |
| [itchyjunk] | I think warm blooded animals should have same temperature before and after breakfast | 23:20 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], either check it always at the same time of the day, or spent some time to establish a baseline at various times. it definitely does change between morning and evening, and before and after meals, etc | 23:20 |
| pagetelegram | Help folks address their emotional/mental health by sharing this: https://tricare.mil/CoveredServices/BenefitUpdates/Archives/3_19_2020_addressing_emotional_response_coronavirus | 23:20 |
| [itchyjunk] | unless you're a lizard, in that case, ignore me. | 23:20 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], so you establish a baseline like you'd do with anything else: either standardize on measuring in a specific situation, or measure all-round | 23:20 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: I think living in the tropics it's harder to tell when you have a fever than in cool climates. I've often felt like a have a fever here. | 23:21 |
| python476 | who wants my D ? | 23:21 |
| dividediff[m] | Best area to put a thermometer in to take temp? | 23:21 |
| [itchyjunk] | python476, jsut curious about it. dont want it | 23:21 |
| python476 | =___= | 23:21 |
| [itchyjunk] | python476, whats your doctorate in? | 23:21 |
| python476 | I'm quite flattered | 23:22 |
| python476 | but I'm no D | 23:22 |
| python476 | not even LSD | 23:22 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: rectal or vaginal if by best you mean most accurate | 23:22 |
| Biep[m] | Am I right to assume that as long as I have no swollen lymph glands under my chin I don't have Covid-19 symptoms? | 23:22 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], armpit and mouth are popular choice. ideally not in this order if you want to try both. then there are ear thermometers (i have one but it's terrible) and infrared thermometers mostly used on your forehead (i have no opinion, never used one) | 23:22 |
| dunnp | thought you said you had a phd python476 - my bad | 23:22 |
| [itchyjunk] | Biep[m], nope. | 23:22 |
| python476 | dunnp: nah that's a total fantasy on your part :D | 23:23 |
| dividediff[m] | ty | 23:23 |
| python476 | I like to sound academic but that's it | 23:23 |
| LjL | Biep[m], i do not believe swollen lymph nodes are even considered a COVID symptom anywhere i've seen | 23:23 |
| [itchyjunk] | I like to taste academic. | 23:23 |
| python476 | I prefer monadic flavours | 23:23 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: i have a sneaking suspicious you're trying to play me lol | 23:23 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: well, if you're sharing the thermometer then best might be armpit and not anal :-/ | 23:24 |
| Biep[m] | Hmm. It's just because I never before met a serious respiratory disease that didn't have swollen lymph nodes as one of its effects.. | 23:24 |
| tinwhiskers | At least not a combination of anal and oral, ideally. | 23:25 |
| mefistofeles | xD | 23:25 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: you really have to specify that? xD | 23:25 |
| python476 | tinwhiskers: I was tempted to make bags of supply (towels etc) to isolate further more | 23:25 |
| tinwhiskers | Lol | 23:25 |
| dividediff[m] | tinwhiskers: ty | 23:25 |
| python476 | mefistofeles: part of the pornhub free month I suppose | 23:25 |
| LjL | hey guys here, as an italian i can already get a free subscription to pornhub, you really don't have to entertain me | 23:26 |
| python476 | I didn't check but I've read it's been extended | 23:26 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: towels? | 23:26 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: yeah towels, forks etc | 23:26 |
| LjL | python476, i presume it's going to last as long as the lockdown does | 23:27 |
| ubLIX | thx for that pagetelegram. you keeping well today? | 23:27 |
| python476 | on a very different topic some people made this here covidaire.fr/ | 23:27 |
| LjL | python476, but i am not very interested considering getting a subscription would entail more tracking than i'm willing to put up with | 23:27 |
| dunnp | oh that was penguin42 not python476. you can understand my confusion - I appologize python476 ;) | 23:27 |
| LjL | %seen penguin42 | 23:27 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: I don't remember seeing penguin42. | 23:27 |
| python476 | dunnp: vastly different animals my dear | 23:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 22:25 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Reuters su Twitter: "U.N. chief warns global recession due to coronavirus 'a near certainty' https://t.co/3qOM9OCRXf… " — from WHO at 22:25: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/CK7gOE | 23:27 |
| LjL | it's another number penguin i think | 23:27 |
| dunnp | in science Ljl | 23:27 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: oh ic. I thought you were saying that towles had smthg to do w pornhub | 23:27 |
| LjL | but i haven't seen him around in a bit | 23:27 |
| LjL | dunnp, oh he didn't join here? fair enough | 23:28 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: nah, let's drop the pH low | 23:28 |
| python476 | covidaire.fr/ : a tiny map for ads to help people who are stuck and need some | 23:28 |
| dunnp | was the chat that got me in here so thats why I'm thinking of him | 23:28 |
| dividediff[m] | Has italys deaths passed chinas? I was about to yest | 23:28 |
| dividediff[m] | it** | 23:29 |
| tinwhiskers | It has | 23:29 |
| python476 | JHU said so earlier today | 23:29 |
| tinwhiskers | That's some crazy shit | 23:29 |
| python476 | so a few american companies are starting to rewire their production | 23:29 |
| python476 | GM, Tesla, Razer | 23:29 |
| python476 | all making medical devices | 23:29 |
| python476 | or health related | 23:30 |
| python476 | bayer donated chloroquine but beside that I don't recall european companies going into war effort | 23:30 |
| python476 | did I miss something ? | 23:30 |
| dividediff[m] | Some1 said yest usa has past france in cases | 23:30 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: plague.com has all this data | 23:30 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: uk has some companies mobailized | 23:30 |
| python476 | cool | 23:30 |
| python476 | i believe that, beside long term mats, hospitals are (duh) the most important sector to focus on | 23:31 |
| dunnp | so I'm the only big D here I guess | 23:31 |
| python476 | it's distressing hearing nurses saying their risking their lives and have not enough everything | 23:32 |
| python476 | dunnp: you're a D ? | 23:32 |
| python476 | I thought mefistofeles and ubLIX were Ds too | 23:32 |
| astraliam[m] | %data italy | 23:32 |
| Brainstorm | astraliam[m]: In all areas, Italy, there are 41035 cases, 3405 deaths (8.3% of cases), 4440 recoveries as of March 19, 17:43Z. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 23:32 |
| dunnp | I am python476 | 23:32 |
| dividediff[m] | jaguar and toyota too has/is about to move into ventilators too | 23:32 |
| python476 | %data 2021 | 23:32 |
| Brainstorm | python476: Sorry, 2021 not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 23:32 |
| python476 | I knew it, there's no 2021 | 23:32 |
| LjL | python476, about https://covidaire.fr/ in our list of links there is also a map with "help networks" all over the globe | 23:32 |
| python476 | LjL oh good then | 23:33 |
| mefistofeles | python476: what's a D? | 23:33 |
| mefistofeles | :/ | 23:33 |
| python476 | Doctor | 23:33 |
| LjL | python476, this one may obviusly be more detailed for france, though | 23:33 |
| mefistofeles | oh no | 23:33 |
| python476 | LjL yeah it's nation-scoped | 23:33 |
| python476 | but it's cool there are others | 23:33 |
| python476 | that's why I brought the topic | 23:33 |
| python476 | just gathering useful stuff (but you did already) | 23:33 |
| python476 | mefistofeles: MD or PhD | 23:34 |
| dividediff[m] | plague.com is a misnomer, covid can't be a plague cause it's viral (i think) | 23:34 |
| LjL | python476, the other one is mostly US and UK i'm seeing https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=fa2668225f6c46408ec4016fd6cd5b09&extent=-136.6103,8.3024,35.6553,66.7501 | 23:34 |
| LjL | dividediff[m], i think we all know full well that COVID isn't literally plague, and so did the ones who registered plague.com... | 23:34 |
| ubLIX | python476: i'm not a D, i'm just prolix | 23:34 |
| dividediff[m] | Have any medications been approved for treament of covid? | 23:35 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: Trump said chloroquine was approved, but that may not be the case :-/ | 23:35 |
| dunnp | FDA immediately said it wasn't | 23:36 |
| tinwhiskers | However if he says it is you can argue that it is | 23:36 |
| tinwhiskers | Ah, ok | 23:36 |
| mefistofeles | python476: sure, none of those, I'm pre PhD I guess xD | 23:36 |
| [itchyjunk] | "I am Trump and I approve this medication." | 23:37 |
| python476 | aww you're a preprint | 23:37 |
| dunnp | is everyone without a PhD pre-PhD? | 23:37 |
| dividediff[m] | "possible positive effect, remdesivir, was also cited by Trump as being very “near” approval for use by the FDA. " | 23:37 |
| LjL | python476, added to links | 23:37 |
| [itchyjunk] | python476, freenode has a very high density of D's. | 23:38 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: hmm interesting | 23:38 |
| mefistofeles | they were also testing the malaria one, chloroquine I think it's called | 23:38 |
| [itchyjunk] | Sideeffect of anti malerials include blindness though. | 23:38 |
| dividediff[m] | yea malaria is chloroquine | 23:38 |
| [itchyjunk] | there are other anti malarial ones being tested. | 23:39 |
| mefistofeles | interesting | 23:39 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: any idea how likely that side effect is? | 23:39 |
| dividediff[m] | TIL that malaria is a virus | 23:39 |
| mefistofeles | is chloroquine the one of the nobel prize for this china female doctor? | 23:39 |
| mefistofeles | that would be interesting | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Our COVID links at 22:37 UTC: ljl-covid: Add Covidaire, move the other map next to it — from WHO at 22:37: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/5XUN2a | 23:39 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: chloroquine is also used for some other things. I don't think it's too dangerous. | 23:40 |
| dividediff[m] | Im only finding chloroquine and american research, but it looks like other countries have done more work on it. Has china not figured it out yet? | 23:40 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], 200 mg for several months has been know to cause blindness | 23:41 |
| tinwhiskers | dividediff[m]: China first noted or | 23:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | good news is, we would only use it for a week or so | 23:41 |
| tinwhiskers | It | 23:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | bad news it, recommended dose is 1000 mg a day (chinese recommendation i think) | 23:41 |
| pagetelegram | ub: yes going to take a nap, maybe fall asleep. 4 hour sleep nights for 8 days now. | 23:41 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], china already looked at it i think | 23:41 |
| tinwhiskers | [itchyjunk]: 500 | 23:42 |
| dividediff[m] | Does the world agree that chloroquine is benefifical in fighting corona? | 23:42 |
| dTal | Max cumulative dose around 30+ grams, so you're okay for a typical run of corona | 23:42 |
| python476 | dividediff[m]: not yet | 23:42 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, yes, 500, twice a day. You're right | 23:42 |
| [itchyjunk] | tinwhiskers, 500 twice a day. | 23:43 |
| dTal | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-bayer/bayer-donates-three-million-malaria-tablets-to-us-for-potential-use-against-coronavirus-idUSKBN21637E | 23:43 |
| python476 | french dude made a small study, not the best protocol, not reviewed | 23:43 |
| [itchyjunk] | <dividediff[m]> Does the world agree that chloroquine is benefifical in fighting corona? | 23:43 |
| [itchyjunk] | no. | 23:43 |
| [itchyjunk] | sample size it like 30 for some of the studies. | 23:43 |
| dividediff[m] | python476: darn. I was gonna say, if they know it works, they should start using it on ppl who would normally die from corona | 23:43 |
| dTal | sorry, meant to share the Hacker News discussion thread which is wise as always https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22631213 | 23:43 |
| LjL | dTal, may i have a word? | 23:44 |
| dividediff[m] | Why is bayer donating 3m pills if it's not established if it helps? | 23:44 |
| dTal | LjL: of course | 23:44 |
| docwon | some old stock they needed shifting | 23:44 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: they have no use for them | 23:44 |
| tinwhiskers | Chloroquine may also have a prophylactic effect so you may take it for longer than two weeks | 23:44 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/lifestyle/health/5005913-Preventing-coronavirus-U-of-M-seeks-1500-volunteers-to-try-anti-malarial-drug | 23:45 |
| tinwhiskers | Presumably in a lower dose | 23:45 |
| dividediff[m] | docwon: i've heard that grocery stores do this for food banks. Garbage is expensive, but donating old food is free | 23:45 |
| dividediff[m] | nce link! | 23:45 |
| [itchyjunk] | there is all sorts of crazy side effects associated with chloroquine. | 23:46 |
| [itchyjunk] | Malaria affected regions of Africa has had people using this for quite some time. | 23:46 |
| dividediff[m] | When china figured out corona's rna, was that difficult? | 23:46 |
| [itchyjunk] | So we know a lot about side effects than we do about its effects on coronavirus. | 23:46 |
| [itchyjunk] | the recommendations was for edge case patients who might die in few hours in your ICU wards. | 23:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | Not a blanket "use for everyone " type thing. | 23:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], what do you mean? | 23:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | they sequenced patients samples | 23:47 |
| [itchyjunk] | then tried to match is it other known pathogens | 23:47 |
| dividediff[m] | Since corona emerged in china, china must have been the one to sequence it's dna/rna. Is that a difficult process? | 23:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | it didn't match. then they tried to match with partial sequence of bat viruses | 23:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], full sequence is "resource intensive" | 23:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | 20 years ago, would have taken months to do possibly. | 23:48 |
| dividediff[m] | wow i'm surprised that had bat virus samples lying around. Great news for ppl with pet bats ha | 23:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | Now, $10k equipments in most unis might be able to handle it. | 23:48 |
| [itchyjunk] | again, i defer it to dunnp though. | 23:48 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: China was the first country of course, but it has been sequenced multiple times now in many different countries | 23:49 |
| dividediff[m] | Ahh so not crazy difficult, just expensive | 23:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | I am curious if you'ed agree or disagree, dunnp | 23:49 |
| mefistofeles | the nextstrain.org thing has the links to the sequences and all that | 23:49 |
| mefistofeles | it should be in the resources link in the topic | 23:49 |
| dividediff[m] | well at least they started doing something right after their initial cover up | 23:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | the sequencing was doing by researchers | 23:49 |
| [itchyjunk] | and coverup different branch of the gov | 23:50 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: to be honest, I'd think any government would've probably acted in a similar way in the beginning of the outbreak | 23:50 |
| [itchyjunk] | i would not lump it all as "chinese" | 23:50 |
| [itchyjunk] | Researchers from wuhan institute of virology did great work | 23:50 |
| [itchyjunk] | they have been collecting bad viruses for years | 23:50 |
| dividediff[m] | bat you mean? | 23:51 |
| [itchyjunk] | bat yes | 23:51 |
| dividediff[m] | Why bat viruses? Just in case it became a problem? Or bc someone had like a pet bat? | 23:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 22:49 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Argentina declares full in home quarantine from the 24th to the 31st — from WHO at 22:49: Every country needs to take boldest actions to stop COVID-19 → https://is.gd/OYZpAy | 23:51 |
| dividediff[m] | like why were they collecting it | 23:52 |
| Albright | %title https://www.thecut.com/2020/03/what-its-like-to-be-poly-in-coronavirus-isolation.html | 23:52 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: From www.thecut.com: What It’s Like to Be Poly In Coronavirus Isolation | 23:52 |
| xionbox[m] | Holy shit! US at 13k cases! On the 18th (yesterday), there were 7736 confirmed cases. That's a ~77% increase day to day! Doubling rate was 2.7 on the 18th, but that was based on previous data. Seems like we're close to 1.3 now! https://covid19tracker.cc/ | 23:53 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], after SARS-CoV, china decided to collect it. | 23:53 |
| [itchyjunk] | They wanted to prepare for next pandemic | 23:53 |
| xionbox[m] | *Holy molly | 23:53 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: oh yea, cause that was also a bat cave thing | 23:53 |
| [itchyjunk] | xionbox[m], FDA approved some testing methods yestertday i think | 23:54 |
| HeXiLeD | https://pagesix.com/2020/03/19/evangeline-lilly-wont-self-quarantine-values-freedom-over-her-life | 23:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | Large machines that can do 4k a day tests "automated" | 23:54 |
| HeXiLeD | some people ... need to leave the planet | 23:54 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: i wonder if humans have like a sample of evy virus they've found just in case | 23:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | i think we try to | 23:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | china, for example only had done partial sequence of those viruses | 23:54 |
| AimHere | xionbox[m], hard to tell whether that's greater incidence of the virus, or just a difference in testing regime. Probably a bit of both | 23:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | it was too costly back in early 2000's to do full | 23:54 |
| [itchyjunk] | but when they thought they had a match, they went back and did full sequence | 23:55 |
| xionbox[m] | [itchyjunk]: interesting. Are those tests from other countries? | 23:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | and boom, it was 96% similar | 23:55 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: How much more screwed would humans be if we didn't have that bat virus sampled already? | 23:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | dividediff[m], china's quarentine would be a few weeks to a few month late | 23:55 |
| xionbox[m] | AimHere: yes probably both, but that's similar to how it's been in Western Europe where they didn't have a good testing system in place for a few days (just took an extra ten days in the US or whatever) | 23:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | beyond that, i can't predict | 23:55 |
| mefistofeles | HeXiLeD: I would try avoiding putting those links here, they don't add anything to the discussion :/ | 23:55 |
| [itchyjunk] | xionbox[m], which test ? the usa test? | 23:56 |
| xionbox[m] | [itchyjunk]: yes | 23:56 |
| dividediff[m] | mefistofeles: HeXiLeD for the record i don't mind those kind of links | 23:56 |
| dividediff[m] | [itchyjunk]: oh man all of china would be italy. Uhh, so good thing sars got them prepared i guess? | 23:57 |
| HeXiLeD | well.. some mind, some dont mind. so... what to do? | 23:57 |
| HeXiLeD | arent those links related to the topic? | 23:58 |
| mefistofeles | dividediff[m]: ok sure, but I wouldn't think discussing what random or stupid popular people do as a response for the coronavirus is something we want in this channel | 23:58 |
| [itchyjunk] | https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#collapsedcovid19abbott | 23:58 |
| mefistofeles | HeXiLeD: sure, they are related | 23:58 |
| HeXiLeD | some popular opinion from some well known people tend do influence the masses. | 23:58 |
| HeXiLeD | my opinion does not matter. but someone with a millions of followers is different | 23:59 |
| dividediff[m] | mefistofeles: HeXiLeD i would not be oppose to having another channel for rando's responses | 23:59 |
| mefistofeles | HeXiLeD: sure, we already know that, you are, if anything, contributing to that :P | 23:59 |
| dunnp | [itchyjunk]: yea 10k was probably about what it cost for the first sequence because of how they did it but it can really be <$100 using more modern methods | 23:59 |
| HeXiLeD | mefistofeles: to what? | 23:59 |
| mefistofeles | HeXiLeD: to make it more visible | 23:59 |
| dunnp | we are gearing up to sequence a bunch of covid-19 strains for a few dollars each | 23:59 |
| dividediff[m] | HeXiLeD: the gov should tell Evangeline Lilly to self isolate or get isolated in jail. I think thats the right play? | 23:59 |
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