libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2020-04-03

IronYScarecr0w: A College in Ottawa, there not making the course content open to the public :/00:00
Scarecr0wIronY: Oh, lol, Ottawa is in Canada, I think. I'm shitty with Geography. I thought you had it somewhere like Udemy or something.00:01
NokajiCoronavirus was born in China among the bloody guts of disembowelled bats, snakes, poultry and wildlife peddled in Wuhan’s infamous “wet markets”.00:02
NokajiI luv me some poetry00:02
NokajiNY says all to wear face mask when outside00:03
BobCatFINALLY!00:03
BobCatI have been telling everyone for a month00:03
IronYyeay, I was write 4 weeks ago00:03
IronYall it cost was lives to prove it00:03
IronYbitter fucking sweet right there00:03
IronYBobCat: exactly00:03
IronYs/write/right00:03
Nokajiapparently, any nation that has got a grip on this thing, has done the following ... endless testing, quarantine, tracing and face masks00:04
Nokajiwe've been drowned out by this double-speak - https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/123372578528393216000:04
BobCatI was at the grocery before the "shelter in place" declaration, hundreds of people jammed up at the registers, no one wearing a mask00:05
BobCatexcept for me00:05
bin_bashBobCat: same00:05
IronYBobCat: I faked a 2 week flu00:05
IronYto work from home00:05
IronY2 weeks before we were allowed to work from home :P00:05
NokajiSeriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!  They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!00:05
IronYNokaji: Yep, that is a tweet from the Surgeon general00:05
IronYI generally won the argument of 'you should wear a masks' with the following sentence00:06
IronYAhemm00:06
bin_bashthe hospitals shouldve already been stocked up tbh but they didnt learn from the ebola scare so i doubt they ever will00:06
IronY"Masks are ineffective and preventing the COVID19 disease, please donate all your masks to prevent front line health care from getting the covid19 disease"00:06
Nokajithe thing about lies is you need to have a good memory, he had obv' forgotten his lie before even finishing his sentence00:06
IronYIf you give someone that above sentence00:06
IronYthere brain will race a little bit until they get it by themselves00:07
Nokajiit's about the same as DG said00:07
Nokajidouble-speak00:07
IronYif u guys get bored, give this a watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkJELpndAOs00:08
BobCatThe youtuber  "Tech Ingredients" said the same thing IronY00:08
Nokajiit's troubling that folk can be so gullible00:08
IronYnow just to be 100% clear00:09
IronYif you have a mask00:09
IronYif you are one of those lucky fucks that have a mask00:09
IronYand you did not put a whole 5 mins into learning how to use it properly before going out with it00:09
IronYI hate you00:09
IronY:D00:09
bin_bashi have a bunch of different masks00:09
Nokajisimilar double-speak in uk with Bojo's mainteined policy of herd immunity - everyone swears blind he is no longer doing that00:09
Nokajican't believe their own lying eyes00:10
dunnpUS Briefing: 27M surgival masks 19.5M N95 masks have been pushed out to hospitals. 22.4M pairs of gloves 5.2M faceshields. 7600 ventilators00:12
BobCatmy 3m n95 masks have instructions on the wrapper, no excuse for failing00:13
dunnpest 100k vetilators provided by the end of June00:13
nixonixinvite gonzobot?00:13
nixonixmaybe ill just try..00:13
euod[m]ventilators are sort of a weird thing to focus on. if you're at that point your chance of survival is extremely slim.00:13
nixonixnope, must be op00:14
IronYnixonix: you also need to ask an op to bring a bot in00:14
IronYnixonix: there are already 4 bots in here, what were u looking for00:14
mefistofeleseuod[m]: why weird? it directly saves lives, regardless00:14
dunnpeuod[m]: 50% survival00:14
dunnpversus 0% without00:14
IronYi think its 20%00:15
nixonixi thought a bot showing titles for links00:15
IronYnixonix: we have two of those, they do not want that feature turned on00:15
IronYyou can do this though00:15
IronY%title http:/www.google.com00:15
BrainstormIronY: From www.google.com: http:/www.google.com00:15
euod[m]dunnp: from a purely logical point of view, if you're on a ventilator you're past economic recovery. while that doesn't jive well with people's sense of what is right or wrong.00:16
dunnptalking all about supply chains right now00:16
dunnpno euod[m] that is an artificial definition00:16
IronYdunnp: actually it is a thing called 'reasonable losses'00:17
IronYand it is used in the military all the time00:17
dunnpDPA being implemented through the supply chain to focus on increased production00:18
dunnpIronY: not sure about that00:18
euod[m]dunnp: like I said, it doesn't fit with morality very well, but it's still not a great thing to focus on from a totally logical standpoint. even if there was literally hundreds of thousands of the things, I doubt we have the medical staff to man them.00:18
IronYdunnp: google it?00:18
IronY'acceptable loss'00:19
dunnpI don't think anyone is an acceptable loss00:19
euod[m]NY is already moving to this. cardiac arrest is no longer something that results in being taken to hospital.00:19
IronYdunnp: what you think is irrelevant though, thats how it works00:20
dunnpif we can church out more ventilators it doesn't matter what it costs00:20
dunnpwhich is what we are doing00:20
LjLeuod[m], uh, my understanding was they weren't resuscitating *COVID patients*00:20
euod[m]yes, so to reduce losses, you have to focus on saving people that can be saved.00:20
mefistofeleseuod[m]: source?00:20
IronY'triage'00:20
euod[m]reference: https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-nyc-emts-stop-taking-cardiac-arrest-patients-to-hospitals/00:20
euod[m]"Cardiac arrest victims whose hearts cannot be restarted at the scene are now being left there — rather than being brought to coronavirus-strained hospitals for further revival attempts, according to a new guidance for medical responders."00:20
mefistofelesah ok00:20
mefistofelesyes00:20
AimHereThose aren't Covid patients, LjL, those are just any patients outside hospital who would ordinarily be passed to the ER for resuscitation00:21
LjLwell that's not great00:21
euod[m]yep. triage.00:22
AimHereIndeed not00:22
dunnpeuod[m]: not sure how spending a few thousand per ventilator isn't worth it to save lives00:22
mefistofelesyes, triage indeed00:22
LjLyou aren't responsible for this. however, i hope while shrugging and saying "triage", you also keep in mind that China, Italy, ..., have given the US plenty of advance warning of what would happen, and time to prepare00:22
mefistofelesdunnp: I heard ICUs ventilators can be up to 200k USD00:22
LjLand instead... people are being left to die? that's not right.00:22
mefistofeleseach one00:22
BrainstormNew bulletins for World: +614 cases (now 1010668), +16 deaths (now 52882), +137 recoveries (now 212015) since data from an hour ago — Alabama, US: +49 cases (now 1251) since data from an hour ago — Albania: +9 recoveries (now 76) since data from an hour ago00:23
mefistofelesLjL: not much you can do, the preparation wasn'tenough, and the situation is what it is00:23
euod[m]dunnp: look at it like this. if you can save 5 people with the amount of care it would take to put on a ventilator, that's obviously what should happen. the number of actual ventilators is irrelevant at this scale.00:23
dunnpmefistofeles: thats cheap enough also00:23
mefistofelesdunnp: ok, just saying00:24
dunnpeuod[m]: how is it irrelevant00:24
mefistofelesbut, you know, USA in a press conference said that non-ICUs ventilators only need a firmware update to become ICUs ones00:24
mefistofelesso... :/00:24
pynadepend on where you are and what form of social insanity you have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life#Estimates_of_the_value_of_life00:24
euod[m]dunnp: there's other limiting factors, like having actual medical staff. from what I understand of them they're not really a set and forget sort of situation, you have to have people basically sedated while doing it, if you screw up you explode people's lungs.00:25
LjLmefistofeles, well there are laws against changing protected firmware without due authorization, i certainly wouldn't want hospitals to be held liable to the DMCA for doing something as foolish as trying to upgrade a ventilator in a non-approved manner!00:25
mefistofelesLjL: hehe00:26
mefistofelesthey also said they were allowing that, iirc00:26
dunnpford & GM have repurposed factories to push out more ventilators00:26
LjLmefistofeles, yeah, except they realized... late.00:26
LjLmefistofeles, it didn't sound like companies were overeager to make them aware of this fact00:27
mefistofelesdunnp: yeah, but that's not coming soon enough00:27
mefistofelesTesla noticed that, and bought 1200 chinese ventilators (ironic I know)00:27
dunnpus govt has put in supply chain controls to push parts to those factories00:27
dunnpeuod[m]: staff isnt a limitation on the current ventilator use00:27
euod[m]dunnp if you had more it would be, for sure.00:28
mefistofelesdunnp: I think it is (in some countries, not sure NYC/USA)00:28
mefistofelesthese commonly need internists00:28
dunnpsorry i'm half quoting the current white house briefing00:28
euod[m]dunnp: my point was, even if you could magic 100k of the things tomorrow, there's other bottlenecks. it's never going to be enough, and even if it was, you only end up with a 50% (or whatever) survival rate.00:28
dunnp50% is a lot better than 0%00:29
mefistofeleseuod[m]: I don't think so00:29
mefistofelesbut it does depend on many other things00:29
mefistofelesat least for regions with low ICUs ventilators numbers, it really helps to have more and also work on automated fast decision making software/algorithms00:30
LjLdunnp, if we assume those are the patients who actually die (making the somewhat daring assumptions that those who can survive if you just give them oxygen and a bit of care, will), then that makes the death rate become twice. i am not much of a mathematician but i do believe that 100% is twice as much as 50%00:30
mefistofelestriage algorithm are kinda standardized, and you can think of implementing them in some kind of software that non-experts can use to make decisions00:31
mefistofeles*algorithms00:31
dunnpLjL: yes but assuming that putting someone on a ventilator doesn't mean someone else can't have oxygen00:32
euod[m]nothing scarier than being at the front of triage.00:32
dunnpNYC is not at full on triage00:32
mefistofelesMadrid kinda is, though00:32
LibertyAlwaysThis corona virus is about these people in freenode censoring you and having more control over you00:32
LibertyAlwaysIt's not only the virus00:32
LjLdunnp, i guess that's sort of the argument the others are making. but... i dunno, i believe here at least, the big shortage is on ICU beds, not normal beds... yet, anyway. like, they're using CPAP hoods as a substitute for ventilators in some cases, but not as a substitute for simple oxygen00:33
LibertyAlwaysThere's going to be a mass slave system00:33
euod[m]never had a bigger rush than realising I was triaged in front of someone who had literal limbs coming off.00:33
mefistofelesLibertyAlways: stop that00:33
LibertyAlwaysThese people are going to try to prostitute your children here and on discrod00:33
LibertyAlwaysdiscord00:33
LjLi guess that's positive proof in their view00:33
euod[m]LjL: hopefully staying at home means less of the normal hospital visits at least.00:34
euod[m]less car accidents, getting knifed at a tesco, that sort of thing.00:34
dunnpWH: Using opportunity to pass law to deregulate and push only domestic manufacturing of healthcare components00:34
dunnpughhhh00:34
LjLeuod[m], the few cars i see are going pretty darned fast, though00:34
euod[m]LjL: oh yeah there's people around here doing 160km+.00:35
BrainstormNew bulletins for World: +1051 cases (now 1011719), +16 deaths (now 52898) since 20 minutes ago — US: +998 cases (now 241658), +16 deaths (now 5827) since 20 minutes ago — Florida, US: +998 cases (now 9008), +16 deaths (now 144) since 20 minutes ago00:35
dunnptrump: we could have stopped ventilators from going to Italy and Spain but we let it go00:35
euod[m]LjL: good news is at that speed nobody goes to hospital.00:35
LjLeuod[m], except for the car going at 40km/h coming the other way ;(00:36
LjLwell, or, they also don't00:36
dunnptrump: 151 countries are ordering from us00:36
dunnphah00:36
LjLdunnp, which ones, the several million nothings that the US gave us?00:36
dunnptrump: soon ventilators will be worth $500:36
dunnpthere ya go00:36
mefistofelesheh00:37
LjLoh i'll buy one then, where can i make an order00:37
dunnpprobably LjL - just quoting the press conference00:37
mefistofelesthey will be much cheaper, that's for sure00:37
LjLdunnp, yeah yeah i get it. is it live now?00:37
dunnpyea00:37
dunnphttps://www.cnn.com/specials/live-video-100:37
dunnprealistically the US has an awful lot of resources that can move around rapidly but the leadership has really f'ed it up00:38
dunnpNYC could have far more cases and still avoid the need to triage patients00:38
dunnptrump is now promoting the small business relief..00:39
LjLasking the government for thousands ventilators?! unheard of!00:39
LjLbut also, COVID-19, unheard of, just saying00:39
dunnptrump: better than healthcare - here is $120000:39
dunnpeuod[m]: if it would cost $5M to save someone's life, but it would work, would you spend it?00:40
LjLit's the states' fault for not buying things because they think COVID wouldn't have reached them00:41
LjL... unlike Trump, who always thought COVID was a huge deal?00:41
mefistofelesnobody bought many ventilators, there just weren't many00:41
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 22:27 UTC: Coronavirus US live: Trump again tests negative for illness, White House says: DNC confirms nominating convention postponed 6.65 million filed for US unemployment last week US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars See all our coronavirus coverage [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/HG3MG800:41
mefistofelesand if anything, USA bought more than most others00:42
oribaCorona-Ausbruch in Potsdamer Klinikum    https://www.rbb-online.de/rbb24/videos/20200401_2145/aufnahmestopp-potsdamer-klinikum.html00:42
LjLdTal, it makes the output a little longer (back again from shortening to the first 4 countries/regions) but now Brainstorm gives a fuzzy indication of how long ago the previous update was, so it's not completely x-axis-less anymore... although it's still in jumps however they happen from the sources00:49
BrainstormNew bulletins for World: +1369 cases (now 1013088), +47 deaths (now 52945) since 16 minutes ago — US: +1241 cases (now 242899), +38 deaths (now 5865) since 16 minutes ago — California, US: +820 cases (now 10838), +19 deaths (now 234) since 35 minutes ago00:50
euod[m]dunnp: you don't seem to understand. this isn't a question of cost.00:50
dTalwell that sounds like an improvement00:50
dTalsay, how often are they testing Trump00:50
euod[m]dunnp: there's a limited capaciticy. money is already not a consideration.00:51
euod[m]money can't make nurses appear.00:51
dunnpeuod[m]: we are no where close to the limit of capacity in the US00:51
euod[m]dunnp: in NY it's been exceeded for a while already.00:51
dunnpdon't think so euod[m]00:52
dunnpespecially not capacity for people on ventilators00:52
euod[m]they literally aren't taking people to hospitals they otherwise would.00:52
dunnpwell yes, our hospital is redirecting patients away from the main hospital already also00:55
dunnpall the non-covid patients00:56
dunnpbut we have other places for them to go00:56
LjLSpec, looks like the FDA is being ridiculous in more than one way https://reason.com/2020/04/02/the-fda-is-making-it-much-much-harder-for-distilleries-to-produce-hand-sanitizer/00:57
mefistofelesis it just me or this doctor doesn't seem to understand the math concepts ?00:59
mefistofelesseems too vague when talking about these things00:59
Birosso%cases01:02
BrainstormBirosso: In all areas, World, there are 1013088 cases, 52945 deaths (5.2% of cases), 212015 recoveries as of 15 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 20.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries).01:02
pwr22LjL: My homeserver now does URL previews 😁01:02
LjLpwr22, let's hope you don't end up loading many naughty urls01:03
pwr22ha ha yeah01:03
graphinehi01:03
pwr22Hi01:03
mefistofelespwr22: I don't get it, what are you doing exactly?01:04
LjLMatrix things01:04
pwr22mefistofeles: eh?01:04
BirossoIs anyone watching Trump's press conference right now?01:04
BirossoIt's very entertaining.01:04
mefistofelesBirosso: I am01:04
pwr22Got a link?01:04
mefistofelesit's so vague01:04
BirossoDid you see the bit about the banS?01:04
mefistofeleshttps://edition.cnn.com/specials/live-video-101:05
euod[m]better or worse than his My Piellow one?01:05
BirossoHod mu dn stdchusp01:05
mefistofelesBirosso: what?01:05
graphinenovelle vague01:05
Birossomefistofeles: Sometimes I don't place my hands properly on the keyboard.01:05
BrainstormNew bulletins for World: +536 cases (now 1013624), +43 deaths (now 52988) since 18 minutes ago — Alabama, US: +10 cases (now 1261) since 50 minutes ago — Argentina: +2 deaths (now 36) since 50 minutes ago01:05
mefistofelesBirosso: haha yeah01:05
Birossomefistofeles: I was trying to say: Had me in stitches.01:05
LjLpwr22, also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isosHlzEG0g if that fails (failed for me)01:05
pwr22Birosso:  I've missed hours of it 😭01:05
Birossoeuod[m]: I don't know which one you're talking about. Looks like I missed out.01:06
euod[m]Birosso: for one of them he brought out the dude who made My Pillow who rambled on about how god will save us.01:06
mefistofeleswtf is this press conference?01:06
pwr22Has Trump made any more comments about NYC hospitals stealing masks?01:07
euod[m]man trump looks like a fucking joke.01:07
euod[m]he looks even older and worse tanned than usual.01:07
pwr22Iran loves america?01:07
Birosso"The Iranians love America. They'd love to have some of the things we have."01:08
pwr22A long time ago but not so long ago.01:08
BirossoWhat happened to "They hate us for our freedoms"?01:08
LjLBirosso, they'd love to have their freedoms, duh01:08
pwr22And has he started attacking any journalists yet for not being nice to him?01:08
pwr22I want to know if I should stay up till 2am watching the bits I've missed 😁01:09
LjLgod no01:09
pwr22The last one I watched was fantastically entertaining01:10
pwr22Much better than any reality TV01:10
LjLthat's a loooooow bar01:11
euod[m]I find it painful. it has about the same vibe as a crack addict trying to say that they didn't steal your watch.01:11
euod[m]they'll say anything to get more crack.01:11
BirossoWHoever is speaking right now looks like he's about to burst into tears.01:11
euod[m]that's his son in law.01:11
LjLlisten for this i guess01:13
LjL<CarlSagan_> [NYT - Science] Trump Administration Expected to Recommend All Americans Wear Cloth Masks in Public https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/masks-coronavirus-cdc.html 2020-04-02T22:52:2001:13
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 23:00 UTC: Coronavirus US live: Trump blames states for lack of supplies: DNC confirms nominating convention postponed 6.65 million filed for US unemployment last week US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars See all our coronavirus coverage [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/HG3MG801:13
LjLgoing to be a bit of a long shot from "nothing below N95 is useful and not even those unless you know the magic tricks"01:13
LjLwho'd've thought all those people wearing masks in Korea could be correlated with the fact they're controlling it better01:14
BirossoIs the Guardian being needlessly sensational and exaggerating there?01:14
BirossoThe bit about the food.01:14
LjLBirosso, i can't see well, is there a suspicious "as" in the headline?01:14
LjLif so, then yes01:14
Birosso"US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars "01:15
LjLBirosso, it sure shows you're young and have great eyesight01:15
BirossoIndeed, indeed!01:17
Birosso%cases us01:20
BrainstormNew bulletins for World: +687 cases (now 1014311) since 16 minutes ago — US: +1071 cases (now 243970), +18 deaths (now 5883) since 33 minutes ago — New York, US: +672 cases (now 93053) since 33 minutes ago01:20
BrainstormBirosso: In all areas, US, there are 243970 cases, 5883 deaths (2.4% of cases), 10400 recoveries as of 4 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.01:20
bin_bashlmfao https://www.rt.com/news/484723-us-france-face-masks/?fbclid=IwAR39vwsgLS2X-mlVqHJQHdY-BtYoyAc9u5aTJa66sg_A_yiDOlqd0c8cvNI01:21
BirossoHis attempts at twisting the doctor's (?) words are hilarious.01:23
mefistofeleswhen Trump has to explain the rates and comparisons and curves with other countries, you are not doing a good job as an expert01:23
mefistofelesBirosso: the doctor is really bad at communicating, imho01:23
Birossomefistofeles: I haven't been paying attention to what they've been saying, but her freaking out a moment ago when he suggested an interpretaiton of what she said is what caught my attention.01:24
BirossoIndeed. He seems obsessed with comparisons.01:24
mefistofeles Birosso: you can see how insecure she is, always looking at others :/01:25
mefistofelesthat's bad01:25
nixonixso these 70% sensitivity tests, and masks made of t-shirts. all for some sense of security?01:25
mefistofelesalso, maybe she is forced to say something ?01:25
PlanckWalknixonix: They're still better than nothing01:27
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 23:19 UTC: Australia news: Australia coronavirus live updates: Queenslanders wake up to stricter border controls as Australian cases surpass 5,100 - latest news — from r/WorldNews at 23:19: (UK) Surgeon who was kicked out by his landlady over coronavirus infection fears sets up successful website matching vacant rooms with NHS workers in need → https://is.gd/qMKt9G01:29
DocScrutinizer05wait what?  >> US: +1071 cases (now 243970), +18 deaths (now 5883) ***since 33 minutes ago***<<   ARRRGH01:29
mefistofelesthis doesn't add up for me, of course you will have only a minority of states having worse situation, I mean, it's not like every state has a NYC or LA or Chicago, etc.01:30
mefistofelesr a Mardi Gras01:30
mefistofeles*or01:30
mefistofelesthis press conference is really weird, it's all so fuzzy01:30
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Putin seeking to create new world order with ‘rogue states’ amid coronavirus crisis, report claims (10187 votes) | https://redd.it/ftowec01:31
mefistofelesI don't know if they are actually making a good effort on being transparent and let people realize they don't really know many (most?) things, or they are just badly prepared01:31
graphinelol nixonix01:32
graphinenext time they should just ask you guys01:32
graphineyou seem to know it all01:33
nixonixMike Lozano, a Tampa, Fla.,-based executive at Envision Healthcare Corp., a medical group that contracts to provide care at hospitals. Dr. Lozano said he estimates that the sensitivity of the tests is in the neighborhood of 70%, meaning nearly one in three positive patients walks away with a reassuring negative result.01:33
BirossoOh my gawd, this story time.01:33
BirossoI love it.01:33
mefistofelesBirosso: wtf is this01:33
mefistofeleshaha01:33
nixonixChris Smalley, a primary-care doctor at Louisville, Ky.,-based Norton Healthcare, said the 70% estimate was gaining traction with doctors finding out how well the tests work in the real world, absent better data.01:33
BirossoI know, right?01:33
Birosso:D01:33
nixonixDr. Smalley said a negative result is more likely to be accurate in places like Louisville where the prevalence is low, but could be virtually useless in New York, where it is high.01:34
nixonixits not totally useless, if they make several them per suspected case. but do they?01:35
nixonixmaybe the same with t-shirt masks, if you put several them on top of each other...01:36
graphinetry gas mak01:37
casa_I am from Argentina, I would like to know what you think of the policies your leaders are taking01:37
graphinehi casa_01:38
casa_hi excuse me01:38
graphinei do not think i should follower our leader01:39
graphinefollow01:39
Birossocasa_: I'm from Egypt. I'm not physically in the country right now, but from what I've been hearing and from my experiences from the past two decades: It's not looking good.01:40
mefistofelesmost countries are implementing similar measures, imho01:40
BirossoLjL: Remember when I told you that as an Egyption national I can be flown from Germany to Egypt through the embassy?01:40
BirossoTurns out there's a catch.01:40
mefistofelesat least, theoretically01:40
graphineyou are better off with getting opinion from scientists than from political leaders01:40
BirossoWhen you land you're forced into a 14-day quarantine THAT YOU PAY FOR YOURSELF01:40
BirossoIN A FIVE-STAR HOTEL!01:41
mefistofelesthe "how" and obedience of people is what varies a lot01:41
LjLBirosso, lol01:41
LjLBirosso, hotel owner coincidentally the PM's brother?01:41
BirossoNo doubt someone from the inner circle.01:41
graphineshould be pretty secure in southern argentina01:41
graphinevery far south01:41
graphinenot many people there01:42
mefistofelesthe hotel idea is great if you didn't have to pay it yourself, though01:42
graphinebut also pretty cold01:42
nixonixWSJ Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry  http://archive.is/zLjjt01:42
casa_here there are states that are thinking of applying that whoever wants to enter has to pay their test01:43
graphinehow do they control their borders01:43
graphinedo they expect people to only enter a country at the customs?01:44
graphinepretty much green border everywhere01:44
LjLBirosso, at least the good news for you here is your stay would likely not be in a hotel, although it would be longer01:46
mefistofelescasa_: that's not a bad idea, Korea did that, afaik01:46
mefistofelesas long as it actually means that more tests will be made, of course01:46
casa_in theory they are closed with gendarmerie control is the closest thing to a military man, but today a group of immigrants from bolivia and venezuela was arrested in buenos aires01:47
graphinetrump still stings a wall will help01:47
graphinemaybe a wall like between east and west germany01:47
Xeon3DHeh, here we're not even testing all of the medical staff that are working on the hospitals, so we're probably infecting more people when they are attended by a physician...01:47
graphinewith automated guns01:47
penny_the hospitals are death traps01:48
Xeon3DAnd we can't still buy alcohol or hand sanitizer cause shops still haven't got them.01:48
graphineyou better drink the stuff Xeon3D01:48
graphineat least have some fun01:48
mefistofelesXeon3D: health workers are expected to get inected indeed, the common protocols for that is that you should act as if you were infected as a health worker, I think01:48
mefistofelesso, wearing PPE, distancing as possible, etc.01:49
Xeon3DHeh, I've stopped doing that around 20 years ago. :)01:49
graphineno booze anymore Xeon3D01:49
Xeon3Dwell, we can't buy most PPE gear...01:49
Xeon3Dand the masks we can rarely find are the type that only protects the other person, not the wearer...01:49
graphineforget the masks01:50
LjLoh that protects both to a smaller extent01:50
LjLwhich seems not unlikely to me01:50
graphinehow old are you Xeon3D01:50
Xeon3Dwhat does?01:50
Xeon3D36. :)01:50
Xeon3Dand counting.01:50
BrainstormNew bulletins for World: +587 cases (now 1014898), +7 deaths (now 52995), +3 recoveries (now 212018) since 34 minutes ago — Alabama, US: +10 cases (now 1261) since an hour ago — Argentina: +132 cases (now 1265), +2 deaths (now 36) since an hour ago01:50
graphineyou will survive it01:50
LjLXeon3D, surgical masks. the idea they don't protect the wearer seems to be... wearing out.01:50
Xeon3Dgraphine, I surely hope so.01:51
graphinei do know so01:51
Xeon3DLjL I had the impression that that depends on the type of mask01:51
graphinemaybe become seriously sick01:51
graphinebut not that badly01:51
graphinepretty much maths01:52
penny_they must reduce the viral dose at least a little bit01:52
Xeon3DI don't plan on getting sick at all...01:52
graphinethat can be hard01:52
graphinebut good idea01:52
graphineif you have the virus already at the wrong side you will get it even more01:53
LjLXeon3D, yes, surgical masks definitely don't give the wearer any *guarantee* of any sorts, while N95 and FFP2 (similar but different standards) do provide a guarantee, although it's still probabilistic. however, the jump was quickly made from that to "surgical masks don't protect the wearer at all". well, there is no actual evidence for that, while there's starting to be a more widespread belief that they do, and the main reason they were recommended 01:53
LjLagainst was that there is a worldwide shortage, and healthcare workers need them the most01:53
penny_yeah it was basically propaganda01:53
graphinethose mask do not sit well01:53
rajrajrajtinwhiskers: what should an indian citizen do01:53
graphinedid you guys ever have worn such a mask at work?01:53
Xeon3DI do.01:54
graphinethey get easily wet01:54
Xeon3DIndeed.01:54
graphineand than they suck01:54
graphineevery craftsman knows that01:54
penny_i wore an n95 a lot during a recent wildfire01:54
graphineIT guys do not seem to know that01:54
LjLwell then isn't it even odder that they would be reserved to *healthcare workers*?01:54
graphineyou have to change them very often than01:54
LjLyeah, healthcare workers tell me that doesn't happen in practice01:55
graphinebecause air goes everywhere than comes through the sides and all01:55
mefistofelesCloth (e.g. cotton or gauze) masks are not recommended01:55
mefistofelesunder any circumstances01:55
graphineright Xeon3D01:55
graphine?01:55
bin_bashmefistofeles: source01:55
Xeon3DI only use them whenever I'm out of my van... (I do ATM maintenance)01:55
LjLmefistofeles, are there studies saying they are worse than nothing? because it's sometimes stated, but the few studies i've seen seemed to say the some E. Coli, at least, was stopped more effectively by anything than by nothing01:56
Xeon3Dand service has been scarce nowadays01:56
graphineif you have real protection like air masks with real filters01:56
oxalisLjL: just popping in to express my appreciation and gratitude for what you’re doing in #Covid-19. It’s a lot of work and you seem to *always* be in here to answer questions. Thank you.01:56
mefistofelesbin_bash: that's the WHO official mask thing01:56
LjLoxalis, i'm definitely not always here, i sleep too much lately (at weird hours, but still too much). but appreciated01:56
bin_bashok can you post the link please mefistofeles01:56
mefistofelesone sec01:56
mefistofeleshttps://www.who.int/publications-detail/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak01:56
tinwhiskersrajrajraj: what is your government telling you to do?01:57
mefistofelesbtw, since march 1901:57
graphinewe should prepare for mefistofeles01:58
graphinehaha01:58
graphinemaybe we will see him soon01:58
LjLyeah, official WHO advice counts as less authoritative than even a preliminary study in my book after this whole shitshow, sorry :\ it's not like they even give a reason for that in the document01:58
mefistofelesgraphine: haha01:58
graphinei better stay nice01:58
rajrajrajtinwhiskers: they just telling us to stay home until 14th April01:58
graphinei like it cooler01:58
tinwhiskersrajrajraj: that sounds like a good plan01:59
graphinein germany they tell to stay home until april 1901:59
graphine20th of april was hitlers bday01:59
graphineweird!01:59
graphinejust facts01:59
graphinei leave the conclusion up to you ...01:59
jiffe19th is a sunday01:59
Xeon3Dwe're now aproaching (sp) 10k cases :/02:00
Xeon3Dand we've been "quarantined" since march 20th or so.02:00
Birossojiffe, plausable but improbable.02:00
graphinei wont celebrate anyware02:00
BirossoI'm more inclined to believe the Hitler thing.02:00
mefistofelesgraphine: when did they say until 19th april?02:00
graphineanyway02:00
mefistofelesgraphine: do you have the source?02:00
bin_bashmefistofeles: thx02:00
LjLmefistofeles, it may be a bit of a DIY paper, but still bearing the Stanford logo... https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fstanfordmedicine.box.com%2Fv%2Fcovid19-PPE-1-1 they measure that just about anything, including cotton, filters more than a scarf (which also presumably filters better than nothing, given the figures)02:00
Birossomefistofeles: I'm in Germany and my university and all other people I know in other universities were told it's until the 19th.02:00
graphinemerkel said i think on the radio too02:00
BirossoBut that was two weeks ago.02:00
graphineat least02:01
LjL(page 4)02:01
graphinebut of course they will than make it longer02:01
graphinejust want to give ppl at least a little something to look up to02:01
BirossoThe more-recent emails from my university suggest an extension.02:02
BirossoIn fact everything is going digital here.02:02
graphinefine with me starts to drive me nuts to stay at home but if it protect the elderly i will do so02:02
graphineold people are fun!02:02
BirossoFind a hobby.02:02
BirossoBuy a musical instrument.02:02
BirossoIt does wonders.02:02
graphinewhere?02:02
BirossoWhere what? Where to find a hobby?02:02
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 23:48 UTC: Coronavirus US live: Trump blames states for lack of supplies: DNC confirms nominating convention postponed 6.65 million filed for US unemployment last week US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars See all our coronavirus coverage [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/HG3MG802:02
graphinewhere are oyu Birosso02:02
BirossoGermany.02:03
casa_us from March 14 to April 1302:03
graphineoh02:03
graphinena dann02:03
BirossoHuch!02:03
BirossoGermans everywhere.02:03
graphineyeah02:03
LjLBirosso, was ist nun das Preoblem hier?02:03
graphinewas bored most chats suck02:03
graphineis irc okay?02:03
BirossoWas ist denn ein Preoblem?02:04
mefistofelesLjL: that document doesn't really address the point in question02:04
mefistofelesthey are just testing disinfecting methods for suggesting re-use of masks02:04
graphinei just like company thats all02:04
graphinehobby alone naaa not my thing02:04
Birossographine: Music can keep you company.02:05
graphinemy internet line sucks02:05
mefistofelesgraphine: Birosso why arent you sleeping? xD02:05
graphineso i cant to stuff like youtube well02:05
BirossoWell, online interactions should help then.02:05
LjLmefistofeles, it has an "Effectiveness comparison of homeless masks" by percentage of E. Coli filtered, including masks in cotton etc. what is the actual point in question, if not that?02:05
Birossographine: Do you play video games?02:05
graphinenot very tired02:05
BrainstormNew bulletins for Quebec, Canada: +907 cases (now 5518), +3 deaths (now 36) since 21 hours ago — Alabama, US: +10 cases (now 1261) since an hour ago — Argentina: +132 cases (now 1265), +2 deaths (now 36) since an hour ago02:05
graphinei used to02:05
casa_ask what is happening in the jails of your countries02:05
BirossoPassive stuff isn't sufficient.02:05
BirossoThis is a great time for online games.02:05
graphineas i said i can only go online via cell phone02:06
BirossoIt'll help with your socialisation needs.02:06
penny_as a NEET my life hasnt really changed02:06
Birossographine: I didn't notice. Why can you only go online htrough a cell phone?02:06
graphineno internet at home02:06
BirossoWhy not? :O02:06
graphinelol just do not have it#02:06
BirossoWhat's a NEET?02:06
BirossoWHY DO YOU NOT HAVE INTERNET AT HOME?02:06
penny_not in education employment or training02:07
BirossoIt's VERY useful~!02:07
graphinelol02:07
Butterfly^!covid02:07
CoronaBotTotal cases: 1,014,296 (+79,100), deaths: 52,982 (+5,790), recovered: 212,018. Active cases: 749,296, 711,598 are in a mild condition, 37,698 are in a serious condition. Mortality: 5.22%, case fatality rate: 19.99%. Case rate: 76,836/day, death rate: 4,883/day. Last update: 9m ago.02:07
penny_i like it graphine very minimalist02:07
Birossopenny_: I was in all three.02:07
graphinelol penny_02:07
BirossoNow everything is screwed.02:07
penny_dang02:07
graphinea penny for your thoughts penny02:07
graphine:-)02:07
penny_:)02:07
Birosso C:02:07
Birosso@.@02:08
Birossoe.e02:08
Birossoo.o02:08
graphinei started to sketch / draw some years ago02:08
BirossoOkay, I'll stop now.02:08
graphinei am waiting for my wacom thing to come02:08
graphinehej penny_ where are you from?02:09
mefistofelesLjL: I see, they do it with bacteria, so I guess that's assuming the virus enters with a bacteria as a host?02:09
graphinewhat instrument do you play Birosso02:09
LjLmefistofeles, they do it with bacteria because they do not have safety protocols to do it with viruses without risk. that may be suboptimal, but so is the WHO just saying they aren't recommended without citing anything to back that up02:10
mefistofelesLjL: they sure have some citing, and there are plenty of studies on that as well (as there are on the opposite maybe)02:10
graphinebrb need to look how mom is doing02:10
mefistofelesLjL: I mean, not in that document, but they are not making that up, for sure02:11
mefistofelesthat document doesn't have any citing other than who itself, which I guess is on purpose, because it's not a technical document02:11
LjLyeah, sorry but i just don't believe the WHO anymore. i could believe what they cite, if it makes a decent argument, but the organization itself, after recent event, i only see as a political entity with zero medical relevancy02:13
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Germany marks first ever quarter with more than 50 percent renewable electricity (10742 votes) | https://redd.it/ftqwbc02:13
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu shared a fake video from the Hallmark series 'Pandemic' and claimed it as evidence that Iran was covering up its coronavirus deaths (10049 votes) | https://redd.it/ftljer02:13
mefistofelesnot sure if you remember that chinese study on the bus? that was then taken down and authors retracted and such, one of the claims they made was that only people not wearing masks were infected, apparently that wasn't the case02:13
LjLearthquake right now in southern (and central? they say felt in Rome) italy02:14
mefistofelesso yeah, I guess it's still not known, and if you are taking a risk because you have a mask, I suggest you just reconsider and avoid taking it if you wouldn't have taken it without a mask02:14
graphineback02:15
mefistofelesthese homemad masks can also easily become vectors of transmission, that's another issue that people don't address, there's a reason why medical things are not porous... because you cannot really disinfect things with pores02:16
mefistofeleswell, I mean, that easily02:16
graphineis there any good chat website left02:16
penny_https://webchat.freenode.net/02:17
penny_graphine im from oakland california02:17
graphineoakland As02:17
Xeon3D0.1% of our population is already infected. One would think that's a low figure. Thing is... only 0.67% of the population has been tested.02:17
graphinewow california02:17
penny_go a's!02:17
LjLmefistofeles, well the same document is also about methods of disinfection, probably not a coincidence they combined the two, in their thinking. anyway sure, if you can avoid taking a risk, taking it just because you have a cotton mask is foolish... but unfortunately there are things most people have to do02:17
graphinenow how cool is that02:17
penny_u think?02:17
mefistofelesalso materials in them may be more suited for the virus to stay longer, specially if they get wet or something02:17
graphineyes02:17
penny_its a unique spot true02:18
graphinecalifornia is like a dream02:18
penny_um02:18
graphinethats in bay area oakland02:18
graphinenorth of frisco i think02:18
penny_yes across the bay from san francisc02:18
mefistofelesLjL: yes, but they basically say in that same document that no home disinfectant method works02:18
penny_east02:18
graphineoki02:18
mefistofelesLjL: for the masks, that is02:18
graphinecomputer whizz ha penny_02:18
mefistofelesanyways, gotta sleep :/haha02:19
penny_not me not compared to people in here02:19
penny_programming is wayyy to tedious for me02:19
graphinesleep well mefistofeles02:19
LjLmefistofeles, i thought they said heating at 70° in an oven seemed pretty good02:19
graphinewhat are you penny_02:19
graphinelike professionally02:19
mefistofelesLjL: specifically said "not your home oven"02:19
mefistofeleshaha02:19
LjLmefistofeles, yes, specifically covering their asses02:19
mefistofeles(yeah, I found that curious as well)02:19
penny_literally a neet im not kidding02:19
LjLbut what's the actual difference between my home oven and... an oven?02:20
graphinei need to look neet up in urban dictionary lol02:20
penny_not in education employment or training02:20
LjLmefistofeles, i mean, that's a reasonable thing of them to say in case my house catches fire from their method and i sue them. but medically?02:20
mefistofelesLjL: virus load on them? :P02:20
LjLmefistofeles, if 70° kills most of it, it kills most of it02:20
penny_in japan they call them hikkikihori graphine02:20
LjLmefistofeles, there may be bacterial load if anything02:20
graphinehm02:20
mefistofelesif the oven kills X% but you have a huge load, and you don't disinfect the oven, etc.02:21
penny_https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikikomori02:21
penny_Hikikomori i mean02:21
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 00:02 UTC: Coronavirus live news: WHO sees 'worrying spike' in Middle East as global cases pass one million: Donald Trump tests negative; 6.7m more Americans sign up for unemployment benefits; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW02:21
mefistofelesI think it's still pretty controversial, to say the least02:21
graphineyou are like that penny_ ?02:22
penny_i go outside but im close to that02:22
LjLmefistofeles, virus foodborne infections are *very* rare, the WHO says so! (no really, i read a WHO document saying that to reassure people about food deliveries). they say most of them are bacterial. i assume that's partly because viruses can't just go replicating in my oven, while bacteria potentially cold. but still, an oven is a pretty life-hostile environment, although sure, some living beings will survive just about anything02:22
graphineinteresting penny_02:22
penny_im not just in my room all day but i basically just leave the house to go for a walk or get groceries02:22
graphinejust like it that way?02:22
penny_i... have problems with work and school02:23
graphinepsychologically?02:23
penny_i dont mind it but it's not fair to my parents02:23
mefistofelesLjL: sure, but still, they don't recommend your home oven... and you couldn't just take only the recommendations they made that suits your point :)02:23
penny_i can never keep a job or finish a semester i get overwhelmed02:24
graphineyou mean because they pay your life penny_ ?02:24
penny_yeah mainly and the strain on their relationship02:24
graphinethey created you so i guess they can deal with that02:24
penny_its not so bad they can afford it02:25
penny_i live very simply02:25
LjLmefistofeles, actually for the purpose of deciding what to do, i'm definitely going to distinguish between an ass-covering disclaimer and authorities making statements that have proven contradictory at the very least. as to giving others advice... many of them will reuse masks without even *attempting* to disinfect them, so i really don't see a need to go further than stating what i think is more likely.02:25
graphinethere you go penny_02:25
penny_ur so understanding graphine !02:25
graphinei just try to at least view things from a different angle02:25
penny_a good way to be02:26
LjLpepee, got any solid references on homemade masks (the right kinds, at least) being at least better than no masks?02:26
Dan[m]1!covid USA02:26
CoronaBotUSA: Global rank: #1, cases: 244,433 (+29,430), fatalities: 6,063 (+961), active cases: 227,967, total recovered: 10,403, in a serious condition: 5,421. Mortality: 2.48%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 738.0, deaths/1M: 18.0. Case rate: 26,473/day, death rate: 1,049/day, 1st case: -.02:26
graphinehow old are you penny_02:26
penny_2702:26
graphineman than you seriously dont have to worry02:26
mefistofelesif people are not wearing the masks properly (as many empirical data suggests) I think they do more harm than good, so maybe not recommending them is a good thing (?)02:27
Xeon3D!covid Portugal02:27
tinwhiskersLjL: I saw some great mask instructions the other day. I'll see if I can dig it up02:27
CoronaBotPortugal: Global rank: #16, cases: 9,034 (+783), fatalities: 209 (+22), active cases: 8,757, total recovered: 68, in a serious condition: 230. Mortality: 2.31%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 886.0, deaths/1M: 20.0. Case rate: 808/day, death rate: 27/day, 1st case: -.02:27
graphinewhat do you like to do penny_ ?02:27
penny_i think my parents would mind more if the house hadn't increased in value 5x over the last 20 years02:27
LjLtinwhiskers, well, not instructions per se (although yes, i could use them) but actual papers/studies trying to show that masks are better than no masks, against viruses in general or even better coronaviruses in particular02:27
penny_we got super lucky it's nuts02:27
tinwhiskersooohhhhh02:28
penny_oh well i like to hike and read news articles and other stuff and irc and watch youtube vids i guess02:28
penny_do some simple cooking02:28
graphinethats lots02:28
LjLtinwhiskers, in particular, pepee could probably use instructions, though. he's putting together a lot of material on that02:28
penny_its not a bad life02:29
graphinesome older people here spend halfof the day reading the newspaper in the public library if it is open02:29
graphinei guess if you really want to read the washington post or so you will need the whole day02:30
penny_i live like a retired 27 year old02:30
graphinesome people have that wish02:30
graphineyou already do02:31
graphineGR8!02:31
tinwhiskerspepee: well, I liked these instructions, seemed really simple and ended up looking pretty stylin'. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUasSmReIVo02:31
penny_it's only because of the tension with my parents that it's a problem and the guilt i feel02:31
tinwhiskersNow I feel I must go fishing in the rain.02:31
penny_otherwise im not complaining02:31
graphinewhat guilt in which way penny_ ?02:31
penny_i think ive said enough for this channel ok02:32
graphineok02:32
graphinetoo private02:32
penny_and way off topic people are here for corona news02:32
graphineas far as what i have heard just stop feeling guilty02:33
graphineok02:33
tinwhiskersPenelope, is that you? Get off the computer and go to your room!02:33
graphinei am quiet now too than02:33
penny_xD02:33
Dan[m]1Where does coronabot get its stats from?02:34
tinwhiskersDan[m]1: they come from offloop.net/covid19h/unconfirmed.csv, which is compiled from several aggregators02:35
ThomCat[m]<Dan[m]1 "Where does coronabot get its sta"> https://offloop.net/covid19/02:35
tinwhiskersoh, wait. CoronaBot might not use those ones. I lose track of bots.02:35
marchelzoriddle me this02:44
marchelzoassuming the IFR is roughly the same in every developed country02:45
marchelzothe relationship between deaths/day and current # of infected should be as well02:45
marchelzoactually not current # of infected, # of infected ~2 weeks ago02:48
marchelzobut anyway02:48
marchelzoSK had 9 deaths in one day, and 2 weeks earlier they had 7100 infected02:50
marchelzoyesterday the US had ~1k deaths; that would suggest that two weeks ago, they had 793,650 infected02:51
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 00:51 UTC: Australia news: Australia coronavirus live updates: Queenslanders wake up to stricter border controls as Australian cases surpass 5,100 - latest news — from r/WorldNews at 00:51: "Shoot them dead": Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte orders police and military to kill citizens who defy coronavirus lockdown → https://is.gd/qMKt9G02:55
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Trudeau: Supplies for Canada diverted to U.S. (10255 votes) | https://redd.it/ftr99i02:55
LjLmarchelzo, the IFR is not going to be the same every "developed" country i'm afraid, because the word "developed" doesn't automatically result in respirators. but i suspect you may not be wrong about the US having many, many more infected than officially recorded. their curve is so steep it looks like they have a lot to catch up with.02:58
LjLs/respirators/ventilators/02:58
marchelzothey haven't run out of ventilators yet so there's no reason to suspect the IFR will be significantly higher currently02:58
LjLmarchelzo, but as to the former point, South Korea has around 12 hospital beds per 1k people, while the US has less than 3... and counting... downwards.02:59
marchelzoafaik USA has the most ICU beds per capita in the world02:59
LjLmarchelzo, NYC is applying protocols that are already very out of the ordinary. i don't think Korea ever decided they wouldn't resuscitate patients.02:59
LjLi don't have data on ICU beds outside of Europe02:59
twomoonljl i really thought we had the best medical system in the world, until this virus thing happened03:00
LjLbut there are many patients in non-ICU beds who die without proper assistance, anyway03:00
twomooni guess we were all brainwashed03:00
marchelzonobody in the US has died because of lack of medical resources yet03:00
LjLtwomoon, uh, well, if you really thought that... yes, you most definitely were, because any European i know would laugh at that claim. unless we are brainwashed ;)03:00
twomoonventilators actually aren't doing much btw. it's the gov's way of providing a metric of success, albeit kind of a twisted one. it's easier to manufacture ventilators at this point than test kits, which is what we really need. once you're on a ventilator you only have a 30% chance of survival03:01
LjLmarchelzo, if you say so. earlier it was stated that it is now policy in NYC not to send people who have cardiac arrest to hospital unless they can be resuscitated in place by paramedics. maybe this policy is in *anticipation* of lack of resources, and not current lack, but there's no reason for people not to have already died due to it03:01
LjLit's easier to manufacture ventilators at this point than test kits ← this... no. just no.03:02
sYN4P515Dan[m]1 CoronaBot uses https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/03:02
twomoonis it bullshit ljl?03:02
LjLtwomoon, yes, most definitely. tests are widely available, although the CDC messing up the original tests certainly slowed them down in the US. that doesn't mean they're difficult to makw now03:03
twomoonmarchelzo: i think you are wrong. we have seen deaths due to lack of test kits. that's a medical resource, albeit kind of a long tail one03:03
LjLtwomoon, as to ventilators being useless, you have a 50% chance of survival, roughly, the 30% figure being projected longer-term survival, which i would be more wary on... anyway, this is basically 30% of the bulk of the people who would otherwise die (the "critical" patients), so if you're actually trying to save anyone at all, well, those are the ones to try saving.03:03
marchelzotwomoon: how do you figure?03:04
penny_0.2% death rate for 20-40 year olds https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/03:04
Dan[m]1sYN4P515: Thankyou!03:04
marchelzopenny_: >last updated february 29 >uses naive CFR calculation03:05
twomoonthat's a good point ljl03:05
twomoonnevermind marchelzo03:05
penny_shit03:05
twomoonyour question is too short to bait me into a debate03:05
twomoonyou seem like an apathetic debater03:05
marchelzoi'm not trying to debate i'm just curious why you think anybody died due to a lack of tests03:06
marchelzoif you can't breathe, you go to the hospital. doesn't matter if it's from covid-19 or bacterial pneumonia.03:06
twomoonif they had been able to test more i think we wouldn't have seen those early deaths in seattle for example03:07
LjLtesting is diagnostic, and a correct diagnosis is the first step toward treatment. it seems very clear from the extremely steep case curve in the US that testing is/was extremely lacking during the initial few weeks, and is barely catching up now. it is widely accepted that if you can't diagnose someone, chances they'll die will be higher03:07
twomooni mean they would have screened more people at airports etc03:07
twomoonthen they would have started screening randomly in cities with international airports03:07
BrainstormUpdates for World: +560 cases (now 1015727), +1 deaths (now 53186), +17 recoveries (now 212035) since 36 minutes ago — Bolivia: +9 cases (now 132), +1 deaths (now 9) since 36 minutes ago — Haiti: +2 cases (now 18) since 36 minutes ago03:08
twomoonit all boils down to a lack of test kits03:08
marchelzothat's not a lack of test kits, it's a lack of foresight03:08
LjLand yes, of course there is that, too, testing and contact tracing: it has proven effective in other countries, and there is reason to believe it would have been effective in any country, had it been pursued aggressively enough, and *early* enough03:08
LjLmarchelzo, well, they also didn't have test kits, though. if your argument is "it's not the lack of test kits, it's the fact they didn't think of making test kits in time"... well, okay, i'll take it.03:09
marchelzono, i mean they could have prevented those deaths without test kits03:09
marchelzowe could have had a warehouse full of test kits at that time and they still would have let people into nursing homes and let people into the country without quarantine03:10
marchelzowithout test kits you can still quarantine people for a few days, take their temperature, do a chest CT, test for influenza to rule that out, etc.03:10
dzhowho is going to do this?03:11
dzhoand who is going to stand for that without tests to back it up?03:11
PlanckWalkThe focus on PCR confirmed cases is very dangerous.03:11
LjLmarchelzo, okay, well, what is your objection to my diagnosis argument?03:11
dzhobefore the breakout, that is03:11
marchelzoLjL: there's no covid-19 specific treatment anyway, i really don't think a diagnosis helps very much even though in general in medicine making a diagnosis is very important03:13
marchelzoespecially back in jan/feb when we were even more confused about how to treat covid-1903:13
twomoonwe don't know what some governmental organization would have done if they had had more test kits. my thought is they still would have avoided testing people at airports because it's too slow. but they probably would have started randomly testing people in cities much earlier03:13
LjLthere are COVID-19 specific treatments, a few of them, even though few of them have passed rigorous clinical trials yet. but they are being used in the honest belief they may be helpful.03:14
marchelzothey weren't being used in the US back when they had no tests03:14
twomoonwhat is PCR PlanckWalk ?03:15
PlanckWalkPolymerase chain reaction, the basis of these test kits you hear about on news03:15
marchelzoalso, the chinese diagnosed a large proportion of their cases clinically without ever doing a PCR test, it's not very hard if they're symptomatic03:15
twomoonhmm....testing for coronavirus by ruling influenza (and other viruses). that's actually pretty smart i didn't think of that03:16
PlanckWalkThe main benefit of PCR test is detecting before people are symptomatic.03:16
PlanckWalkBut nearly everywhere in the world, they limit tests only to people who are symptomatic (and lots of other conditions as well)03:17
twomoonwhat do you call that...testing by elimination?03:17
PlanckWalkThere's some benefit in hospitals for treating severe cases too03:17
twomoonyes it's  unfortunate that the entire world kinda had this bottleneck of testing03:18
jacklsw%data malaysia03:18
Brainstormjacklsw: In all areas, Malaysia, there are 3116 cases, 50 deaths (1.6% of cases), 767 recoveries as of 18 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Malaysia for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 6.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries).03:18
twomoonsouth korea probably had a testing bottleneck but they made their limited test kits go farther with contact tracing03:18
marchelzoi read somewhere that china set up screening clinics all over the place in wuhan where you would go and get tested for influenza, and then if negative they'd do a chest CT. if it showed ground-glass opacities in line w/ other covid-19 patients, then they would do an actual PCR test03:18
marchelzoto save test kits03:18
twomoonthat's pretty smart because CT scans are cheap03:19
twomoonand also rapid03:19
LjLtwomoon, if Korea of all places had a testing bottleneck, then man, everyone else must have had *a heck* of a testing bottleneck.03:19
graphinetake good care guys03:19
graphinei am off03:19
graphinestay healthy03:19
LjLtwomoon, Korea is the country that did the most test per capita in the world, i believe03:19
twomooni don't know of South Korea had a bottleneck, but they acted as if they did. in my mind, contact tracing is independently helpful, but you can't deny that it helps your test kits go farther if you have that bottleneck03:20
LjLwell, correction, apparently that's Italy now03:21
twomoonwow, italy did well03:21
LjLtwomoon, what makes you say they acted as if they did? they had drive-through testing that anyone could get, even without symptoms03:21
twomooni feel like emigrating there now03:21
twomoonoh ok i'm sorry i forgot about that factoid ljl03:22
LjLtwomoon, no, Italy didn't do well, Italy tested tons of people because Italy has tons of cases. Korea was testing many more until, you know, they kind of stopped having a slew of new cases03:22
LjLKorea was arguably *the* country that tested most aggressively, perhaps excluding some much smaller countries03:22
LjLthe fact that they have done fewer tests in total *by now* is mainly due to them having it seemingly under control by now03:22
twomoonyou can argue they used contact tracing in order to have a reason to utilize more test kits03:22
twomoonso my argument is already up in smoke03:23
LjLtwomoon, i don't know what made you make that argument in the first place, since South Korea has been widely praised for testing a lot :P03:23
twomooni was just trying to hard to explain to people my belief that contact tracing can save test kits by using them more judiciously03:24
twomoonbut i guess my argument is vaporized already03:24
LjLtwomoon, anyway, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-million shows that (apart from that obviously sketchy three-point graph for France) Italy only passed South Korea in number of tests per capita on 29 March, i.e. when Italy was at some... well... VERY MANY cases (i'll check), while South Korea was slowly rising from 7000 to 9000 or so03:24
PlanckWalkIt's true, but you need very widespread screening as well03:24
LjLtwomoon, contact tracing is very important but not really to save testing kits. it's important because it's important, it lets you be one step ahead of the virus, ideally, instead of one step behind. that's how you stop epidemics if you can do it early enough and aggressively enough03:25
PlanckWalkYou need to catch cases that slip through the tracign net03:25
twomooni like the idea of testing for influenza and then giving a CT scan03:25
twomoonthat's actually pretty smart03:25
LjLi'm pretty sure unless you're very short of tests because you're already in full-blown Italy phase, a PCR test is cheaper than a CT scan03:26
twomoonCT scans don't have the lag though03:26
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 01:06 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths top 52,800 as infection numbers cross a million — from r/WorldNews at 01:06: Trial drug, which can significantly block early stages of COVID-19 in engineered human tissues, found at University of British Columbia Lab → https://is.gd/LHfprb03:26
twomoonand i also doubt CT scans are expensive except in the US where they upcharge like crazy03:26
LjLtwomoon, CT scans have to be interpreted by a competent person too03:27
twomoonyeah but i suspect that wouldn't be much of a bottleneck03:27
LjLi suspect there would be03:27
twomoon(assuming they got their shit together)03:27
LjLi mean, China has done that for a reason, but i don't think the reason was "they don't have a bottleneck"... the reason was "they do have a bottleneck, but hey, our PCR testing has already hit a bottleneck, so we can pursue an alternative road at the same time, to have two parallel bottlenecks instead of one"03:28
LjLwhich still results in more people somehow tested, which is good. but that doesn't mean a CT scan is preferable to a PCR test per se03:28
twomoonwhat's the false positive or false negative rate of PCR testing03:30
LjLi think both are generally pretty low, but testing quality varies widely with this thing... in the US, the CDC was insisting on doing all the testing at first, but since tons of labs are doing them now, i doubt there is much of a standard03:33
twomoonis it better to do PCR on blood or on mucus?03:34
LjLfor SARS-COV-2 the test is generally done at the back of your throat, through your nose, in an unpleasant place that has a high concentration of the virus03:37
LjLi'm not sure if blood may contain even more, but probably not, and in any case if no one has seen any reason so far to use blood, i guess the throat swab is fine03:37
LjLantibody tests on the other hand will have to be done on blood, but those, while being used in some places, haven't been really validated yet03:38
BrainstormUpdates for US: +633 cases (now 245066), +5 deaths (now 6075) since an hour ago — Bolivia: +9 cases (now 132), +1 deaths (now 9) since an hour ago — California, US: +189 cases (now 11027), +5 deaths (now 239) since an hour ago03:38
LjLdTal, clearly i do need to sort these numbers. i took the lazy was because most of the time (?) they seemed to come out in order of amounts of new cases on their own03:38
jbjllkhttps://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/03:40
twomoonhave you heard anything about gargling several times a day to kill the virus if it is spawning in the throat most readily?03:40
LjLtwomoon, i've heard of it. i've also read about it being debunked, but that didn't particularly surprise me.03:42
twomoonhave you started any routines like gargling ljl?03:42
twomoonanything at all that you are doing differently to improve hygiene/health03:43
twomoonaside from vitamins and diet03:43
marchelzou wanna prevent covid-19 infection?03:43
marchelzoconsider this03:44
LjLtwomoon, no, because i have no reason to think any of those things have any effectiveness03:44
marchelzoa cohort of 2500 cancer patients in france being treated with methylene blue has had zero covid-19 infections. the probability of that just happening by chance is less than 1%03:45
marchelzo75mg tid03:45
LjLon the other hand, i'm staying at home and going out with an FFP2 mask (or best i can find, anyway) when i do need to go out03:45
LjLi'm pretty sure that works better than gargling :P03:45
marchelzoi think gargling would work if you use like 80% alcohol, mouthwash wouldn't destroy the virus afaik03:45
LjLi'm not really sure you will reach all the parts of your throat where the virus thrives unless you're like a gargling pro or something03:46
twomoonis methylene blue a common chemotherapy med?03:46
jbjllkmoonshine03:46
twomoonljl are you isolating from the rest of your family?03:47
LjLmarchelzo, where can i read this methylene blue paper/report?03:47
LjLtwomoon, no, i live with them, that would be rather unfeasible.03:47
twomooni'm very interested in this report marchelzo03:47
marchelzohttps://riviste.fupress.net/index.php/subs/article/view/888/54803:47
jacklswgargling with 80% alcohol, hmm TIL03:47
pepeeLjL, tinwhiskers regarding masks: the studies I've seen assume the masks are being worn correctly, i.e., well sealed03:47
pepeestudies related to materials...03:48
twomoonljl try to limit sodium to reduce your BP03:48
marchelzoCQ and HCQ are derivatives of methylene blue; I imagine they're equally effective but they key thing is that these people were already taking this daily before the outbreak03:49
pepeeI've got a surgical mask that has a small piece of metallic wire so that it fits well in the nose03:49
marchelzoantivirals are legit if you start them immediately03:49
pepeehttps://academic.oup.com/annweh/article/54/7/789/202744  mentions scarfs as good alternatives03:50
jbjllkmoonshine kills germs03:50
LjLmarchelzo, however, i think those things are quite dangerous to take... worth the risk if you have COVID-19, but unless you also had some other thing that required them, using them prophylactically could be a little... non-risk/benefit-worthy?03:50
jbjllkno cases here03:50
pepeea 100% polyester scarf... from walmart >The filtration performance of the towels (Aquis, Pinzon, and Pem America) and one scarf (Walmart) against <100 nm size monodisperse aerosol particles was relatively better than the other fabric materials.03:50
marchelzoalso that french guy who did the original HCQ trial has been keeping stats updated on his hospital's website. of the 1677 patients who received HCQ + Z-pack for ≥ 3 days, 2 died.03:51
marchelzoLjL: i think the safety profiles differ for each one. afaik methylene blue just causes discolored urine/feces and eyes or something03:52
marchelzoand tons of people take HCQ daily for lupus03:52
twomoonwhat is hcq03:53
marchelzohydroxychloroquine03:53
twomoonnever heard of this chemo drug03:53
twomoonoh03:53
LjLmarchelzo, well, it's suggestive. although trials about CQ and HCQ so far have been a bit inconclusive i think03:53
LjLi mean, some have had positive results, but others showed no benefit. but i should read that review better... or at all, instead of just skimming through it03:53
marchelzobecause they don't work at all for severe patients03:54
marchelzoit's all about timing03:54
pepeeyou guys talking about the methylene blue study?03:54
marchelzoyes03:54
pepeeaha03:54
pepeeseems really interesting, though I'm not one to say much about that03:55
marchelzopersonally i'd take a moderate-high dose of hcq every 5 days or so and at the first sign of any symptoms i'd start taking it daily03:57
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 01:43 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Wuhan risk remains high, says party chief, as Trump blasts states: Donald Trump tests negative; 6.7m more Americans sign up for unemployment benefits; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW03:57
marchelzoi'd rather get the disease and give my immune system enough time to produce antibodies and just use antivirals to avoid having it get out of control03:58
marchelzoinstead of preventing infection out right03:58
jbjllkArtificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal04:05
LjLjbjllk, what?04:06
pynain deep impact president morgan freeman had million people caves ready before the press conference04:07
pynaat least reality is still at least slightly more plausible than the core04:10
AimHereThe movies do seem to overestimate the disaster response of America's government04:10
LjLit's almost as if they are partly propaganda movies for the US, both internal and foreign western market...04:10
AimHereI dunno. That's the military movies. I suspect that Hollywood disaster movies are more naive about organization rather than propaganda tools04:11
pynacontact even built a whole other N billion dollar secret volcano base in case some dude with a pipe bomb04:14
twomoonmarchelzo lemme know when you find an appropriate prophylactic04:16
marchelzou can buy hcq and methylene blue at pet stores lol04:16
twomoonprobably low grade04:17
marchelzomb is pretty uncontrolled. a bunch of those nootropic/supplement sites claim to sell it but idk what the quality would be like04:19
pynaforsythia?04:20
cOrOnICk[20]a friend tells me that people that died from vaping actually had covid1904:22
bin_bashno04:22
cOrOnICk[20]yes04:23
bin_bashno, it's not true.04:23
cOrOnICk[20]says who?04:23
bin_bashWHO, CDC, FDA04:23
cOrOnICk[20]were?=04:24
yuriwhocOrOnICk[20]: stop your CT trolling pls04:24
cOrOnICk[20]trolling?04:25
bin_bashhttps://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2019/p1028-first-analysis-lung-injury-deaths.html04:25
bin_bashhttps://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/lung-injuries-associated-use-vaping-products04:25
bin_bashhttps://www.yalemedicine.org/conditions/evali/04:25
jbjllkvaping kills by it self04:26
cOrOnICk[20]they didnt test for covid04:27
bin_bash0/1004:27
cOrOnICk[20]“I screen all of my patients, any child over age 12, since [vaping] can exacerbate underlying conditions like asthma,”04:29
BobCatthose vaping deaths were caused by vitamin e in the bootleg thc carts04:30
yuriwhovitamin E acetate04:30
BobCatyes04:30
BobCatand these idiot 12 year olds pass around their Juuls and infect their whole crew04:31
yuriwhonever thought about that04:31
aethI'm so glad that I was incredibly uncool at 12 years old. The only thing I was doing was IRC.04:31
BobCatI was considering taking one away from a kid and his gang even before all this04:32
BobCataddicted tweens are no fun04:32
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 02:22 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: cruise ships on their way as Australian cases surpass 5,100 – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 02:22: China reports new swine fever cases in Gansu province → https://is.gd/qMKt9G04:33
BrainstormUpdates for Trinidad and Tobago: +3 cases (now 97), +1 deaths (now 6) since an hour ago — Cambodia: +4 cases (now 114), +1 recoveries (now 35) since an hour ago — El Salvador: +5 cases (now 46) since 2 hours ago04:50
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 02:34 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: Scott Morrison to give update as death toll rises to 26 – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qMKt9G04:50
LjLerr, obviously i should sort high-to-low, not low-to-high *sigh*04:50
LjLyuriwho, have a laugh https://www.longdom.org/open-access/sunspot-cycle-minima-and-pandemics-the-case-for-vigilance-2332-2519-1000159.pdf04:52
yuriwhoheh, one of the authors is from the Institute for the Study of Panspermia and Astroeconomics, Gifu, Japan05:02
yuriwhoI'm gonna watch some mindless youtube videos, I've been always-on for a month. Need a break05:04
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Coronavirus cases pass 1 million worldwide. Doubling in less than a week. (10674 votes) | https://redd.it/ftt3gi05:07
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 03:09 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: Scott Morrison gives update as death toll rises to 27 – latest updates — from r/WorldNews at 03:09: Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro suggests a day of fasting and prayer to get rid of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/qMKt9G05:26
JoinMe#data USA05:30
JoinMe%data USA05:30
BrainstormJoinMe: In all areas, US, there are 245088 cases, 6075 deaths (2.5% of cases), 10403 recoveries as of 12 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.05:30
jbjllkArtificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal05:33
Amsterdamhey05:37
Amsterdamsomeone of colombia?05:38
dunnpcolombia05:39
Amsterdamhey dunnp, whereŕe you from?05:41
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Twitter deletes 20,000 fake accounts linked to Saudi, Serbian and Egyptian governments (10055 votes) | https://redd.it/ftrg8005:41
dunnpUSA05:41
Amsterdamhow are you with this situation?05:42
AmsterdamCOVID-1905:42
Amsterdamin USA05:42
dunnpnot great clearly05:43
jbjllkArtificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal05:43
dunnpjbjllk: what?05:44
Amsterdamthere is a theory that this virus is a biological weapon05:45
jbjllkCOVID-1905:45
Amsterdamyes05:45
Amsterdam... maybe05:45
dunnpthis channel is not very welcoming to conspiracy theories05:45
Amsterdamitś true, because it's the opinion or idea of jdjllk05:46
dunnpactivated by an external signal - thats wild05:48
jacklswor maybe it's work of god to cleanse the world05:48
jacklswhumans get too proud so god wants us to know our places05:48
Amsterdamcan you explain this jdjllk05:48
Amsterdamplease05:48
jacklswlike the tower of babel05:48
jacklswhaha05:49
dunnpjacklsw: \s05:49
jacklswok let's get back to covid-19 chat05:49
dunnpLjL: fwiw that is a fake journal05:50
berndjit isn't deadly enough to meaningfully "cleanse the world"05:50
jacklswthen they will say god still loves us05:50
vaakhttps://foldingathome.org05:51
jacklswworst cleansing was noah's time, only kept a pair (male-female) of each species05:51
jacklsw:D05:51
berndjLjL, haha, i've always found panspermia an intriguing hypothesis but i find that instance of it a bit too anthropomorphized05:51
berndjlike panspermic viruses wouldn't single out humans for pandemics05:52
jbjllkArtificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal05:52
berndjwe'd need to compare data with the cat-WHO dog-CDC and bat-NHS05:52
dunnpjbjllk: are you a bot?05:53
AmsterdamIt seems05:53
jbjllkare you05:53
dunnpyou've pasted the same line multiple times now05:54
dunnpI for one welcome our remote control virus overlords05:54
AmsterdamI think it's better to ignore it05:54
jbjllkhttps://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/05:54
Amsterdamhahahaah05:55
Amsterdambot detected05:55
jbjllkbetter05:55
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: (UK) Surgeon who was kicked out by his landlady over coronavirus infection fears sets up successful website matching vacant rooms with NHS workers in need (10604 votes) | https://redd.it/ftvmf605:59
IronYMasks have been in the mail over two weeks06:09
IronYbut you know, my Hydro(Electric) bill06:09
IronYthat thing didnt even miss a day06:10
IronYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozmh40wwAGc06:11
berndjgotta keep the economy moving!06:11
berndji'm beginning to wonder if my country (south africa) is going to be the next "what's up with germany?" story06:24
berndj~1500 cases, 5 deaths, 50 recoveries06:25
tinwhiskersthat's impressive alright06:25
berndjmost other countries (especially in the ramp-up period) seem to have more deaths than recoveries06:25
PlanckWalkRecovery criteria are all over the place06:26
IronYall our numbers are bullshit06:26
IronYwatched how we are counting dead today06:26
IronYwell, some countries06:26
tinwhiskersfinland is no that dissimilar to SA06:26
berndji *think* ours are "you test negative twice in a row after having been positive"06:26
IronYspoiler alert, if you die of anything with covid 19, u died of covid 1906:26
IronYif you die of a heart attack and u had covid 19 for 10 mins06:27
IronYu died of covid1906:27
IronYberndj: Our is 14 days after first symptom or 24 hours after last symptom which ever is greatest06:27
IronYNo test required!06:27
berndjwe did have a case who died apparently primarily due to a comorbidity, who happened to have covid19 too, she got tallied as a "covid19 death" iirc06:28
tinwhiskerswow06:28
IronYthe tldr is none of the numbers are probably correct06:28
IronYand even more incorrect when compared to other countries numbers06:28
berndjbut surely they're at least internally consistent within a country?06:29
PlanckWalkNope :(06:29
berndjoh, criteria changing over time too?06:29
IronY^06:29
IronYIt is a moving target06:29
berndjoh well that sucks06:29
PlanckWalkThat, as well as states/provinces/regions having different criteria06:29
berndjso we really can't learn much from those covid19 maps can we?06:29
PlanckWalk(And varying access to tests)06:29
berndjyeah we're relatively limited in testing throughput06:30
berndjonly 3000 tests/day or so, which is better than 300 tests/day sure, but not a 500k/week like germany06:31
tinwhiskersberndj: are you in lockdown? Your numbers seem to be tailing off.06:31
berndjtinwhiskers, yeah, lockdown started a week ago06:31
tinwhiskersonly a week ago... weird06:31
berndjmy guess is that the tailing off has more to do with no more infected travelers returning from overseas than with the lockdown06:32
tinwhiskersoh. that might make sense.06:32
tinwhiskersYou started looking very exponential but then suddenly tailed off just before your lockdown started06:33
PlanckWalkOur numbers (Australia) are also slowing due to reduced travellers.06:33
berndjyeah, the numbers were completely dominated by returning travelers06:33
tinwhiskersbut yeah, 5 days of lots of returning people could have done it06:34
PlanckWalkOne of the testing criteria is having arrived from overseas within past 14 days06:34
PlanckWalkThat's where most of the tests have been going.06:34
marchelzoimo a lot of countries just aren't reporting accurate data at all06:35
berndjat what point does it start making sense to do random sampling? it doesn't seem very cost-effective to do when only 0.000001% of your population is infected06:35
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: in my opinion the overwhelming majority are honestly reporting, although there may be some systematic problems.06:35
PlanckWalkI'd say devoting some fraction to at least symptomatic people negative for cold/flu virus is always worthwhile06:35
berndjmarchelzo, yeah, i think there's an irony in that countries with much higher numbers than their regional neighbours might actually have fewer infected people but are just testing more06:36
marchelzohong kong has been getting new cases consistently since january and they haven't had a single death in 3 weeks?06:36
tinwhiskerssimilar to germany06:36
tinwhiskers(at one point in time)06:36
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 04:23 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: Scott Morrison says lower trajectory of coronavirus infection rate is 'encouraging' – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qMKt9G06:37
CyberManifestSince the Coronavirus can *live* on a surface for up to 3 days; wouldn't cigarette smoke kill the virus in the lungs?06:40
CyberManifestI mean what kills the virus at room temperature after 3 days? Wouldn't cigarette smoke be caustic enough to kill the virus or at least weaken it for the immune system to take hold?06:40
tinwhiskerswishful thinking?06:40
berndjCyberManifest, i imagine desiccation is what kills it06:40
berndjand/or just random oxidation from the air06:41
dunnpCyberManifest: why would smoke kill it?06:41
CyberManifestcause it's caustic06:41
berndja virus isn't neatly "alive" in the first place06:41
CyberManifestwhy would oxidation kill it?06:41
tinwhiskersthere were some hints that smokers might have some prophylactic benefit but if a smoker does get infected the outcome is much worse.06:41
dunnpits not particularly caustic06:41
marchelzoactually cigarette smoking seems to be associated with both reduced chance of infection and better outcome if you look at the data06:42
dunnpotherwise you'd lose your lungs pretty quickly06:42
berndjCyberManifest, oxidation eventually breaks the molecules apart06:42
IronYmarchelzo: yeah, I also read that06:42
CyberManifesttinwhiskers: yeah, but if a non smoker suddenly smoked once after being infected could it help06:42
dunnpis there a paper that shows this?06:42
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: which data is that?06:42
dunnpwould like to see that06:42
IronYmarchelzo: but from what I understand in the order of things u wanna be: Non Smoker -> Current Smoker -> Ex Smoker06:42
IronYex smokers have healed lung tissue that is higher in ACE206:42
tinwhiskersCyberManifest: most likely that will do more harm than good06:43
CyberManifestberndj, so why couldn't caustic smoke break the molecules apart?06:43
tinwhiskerscasutic?06:43
tinwhiskerscaustic?06:43
tinwhiskerswhy wouldn't it break apart your cells then?06:43
berndjCyberManifest, i imagine it could. base-catalysed hydrolysis is a thing after all06:44
marchelzoIronY: yes. but imagine what the average years spent smoking is for current smokers. i'm curious how somebody who started a week before contracting the virus would fare06:44
berndjyour cells might not be as alkaline06:44
CyberManifesttinwhiskers AFAIK it does06:44
CovidfefeRoeyoh hi06:44
berndjif that's what CyberManifest means by "caustic"06:44
dunnpmarchelzo: link to this data?06:44
dunnpI really don't think there would be meaningful destruction of the virus from smoke06:45
tinwhiskersI agree06:45
CyberManifestberndj: so if I'm infected and I don't usually smoke, hitting a pipe or cigarette once wouldn't help by weakening the virus at all?06:45
tinwhiskersthat's a huge gamble06:46
berndjCyberManifest, i have no idea. in the absence of more solid data my default would be "smoking just makes things worse, especially starting to smoke"06:46
CyberManifestI didn't realize oxygen was detriment to it, so should I avoid antioxidants06:46
marchelzotobacco supposedly has antiviral compounds in it06:46
marchelzohttps://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/faluhv/an_exhaustive_lit_search_shows_that_only_585_sars/06:46
marchelzothis guy compiled a list of a bunch of random SARS / COVID-19 data showing that smokers are highly underrepresented06:47
berndjCyberManifest, i offered oxidation as a possible killing mechanism for virus on dry surfaces. that might not be the dominant kill mechanism in vivo06:47
CyberManifestberndj: yeah, I had assumed that oxygen fed it06:47
marchelzowhatever smoking does in the long term makes outcomes worse, and whatever it does in the short term makes outcomes better it seems06:48
berndjno, a virus doesn't actually *do* anything outside a host cell, it just sits there and exists. oxygen can only harm it06:48
marchelzolong term is probably just COPD + changes in ACE2 expression06:48
tinwhiskersso maybe vaping is the soltution06:48
tinwhiskersI now have a new conspiracy theory06:48
berndjcovid19 is a Big Tobacco plot?06:49
marchelzowell if it's the antivirals in the tobacco then no06:49
tinwhiskersthe anitvirals are in the nicotine06:49
CyberManifestberndj: so like oxygen doesn't add to it's molecular structure while it's infecting or anything like that?06:49
tinwhiskerssmokers paradox06:49
dunnpmarchelzo: i dont see where you can conclude that it makes things better06:49
marchelzodunnp: look at ex-smokers vs. current smokers06:50
tinwhiskersonly 6.4% of patients were smokers but the general population it's more like 25%06:50
dunnpvery small numbers06:50
marchelzothis is a pretty well known thing, people have been talking about it since SARS06:50
marchelzothe underrepresentation, that is06:51
dunnp42% and 21% of ex and current smokers had severe symptomvs vs 14% non06:51
berndjCyberManifest, not really. oxygen is bad for *any* biomolecule. it's a pretty reactive substance, so whatever you have is not going to stay unchanged for long in the presence of oxygen unless you're actively repairing / renewing the damage06:51
tinwhiskersI'm pretty suspicious that this isn't a cherrypicked study by smokers to make themselves feel better06:51
CyberManifestberndj: so do I need to avoid antioxidants like blueberries and green tea?06:52
marchelzoyes but consider that the vast majority of current smokers are also ex-smokers. "i used to smoke. i still do, but i used to too"06:52
marchelzodunnp:06:52
marchelzorip mitch06:52
berndjCyberManifest, no i don't think so. it isn't going to meaningfully change the oxidation potential in your lungs06:52
marchelzoi would conjecture that if you started smoking cigarettes the day you were exposed to the virus you would be improving your prognosis06:53
tinwhiskersThe higher death rate in males in China was attributed to 50%of males smoking and only 2% of females06:53
berndji think that would be a bad idea. adding more new crap to your lungs they're not used to dealing with doesn't sound smart06:53
CyberManifestmarchelzo: that's what I was wondering, and then once the Immune system weakened it enough I could quit smoking, right?06:53
marchelzoright06:54
tinwhiskersthis is a terrible idea06:54
dunnpthis seems like a horrible idea06:54
marchelzoit's basically just a shitty OTC antiviral06:54
dunnpup your inflamation when you have an infection?06:54
CyberManifesttinwhiskers: but that was existing smokers right, like smokers that had already done damage before contraction06:54
tinwhiskersthis is dangerous advice06:54
marchelzotinwhiskers: why do you think so?06:55
berndj"i just contracted a virus. now i'm going to add smoke inhalation to my lungs' woes"06:56
tinwhiskersthe numbers you reported don't stack up with the numbers I've seen, where smokers have a higher death rate.06:56
tinwhiskerssomething is fishy, and making a leap that taking up smoking will be beneficial is bad advice06:56
marchelzoyou realize that medication is also "adding more crap" right?06:57
marchelzotinwhiskers: smokers do have a higher death rate than non-smokers06:57
marchelzothe thread i linked doesn't dispute that06:58
tinwhiskersbut the numbers you reported showed there were less patients who were smokers06:58
marchelzoless patients, yes. but worse outcomes.06:58
berndjmedication isn't usually smoke particles lodging in your lungs06:58
CyberManifestmarchelzo: but that's because of existing damage though right?06:58
marchelzoi would think so06:58
tinwhiskersso there were less patients because many people in china just took up smoking?06:58
marchelzolong term smoking and COPD go hand in hand06:58
tinwhiskersWhy weren't there more infected smokers in line with other data06:58
dunnpyou cant really make conclusions that they were underrepreseneted from that small study06:59
marchelzotinwhiskers: i don't follow. smokers being underrepresented has been a thing in pretty much all of the data, even SARS data06:59
jbjllkArtificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal06:59
dunnpthe first report of this only had 140 people06:59
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: not in covid-19 data07:00
berndjmaybe smokers just drop dead in the street and never make it to the hospital07:01
CyberManifestberndj: so with oxidation, does temperature matter? I mean would breathing warm air be better than breathing cold air; cause I think I saw data showing that heat seemed to be impactful, i suppose this is why we get a fever, but it also makes sense breaking down the protein shell. So wouldn't warm oxygen be better than cool oxygen?07:01
dunnpmaybe they lie, maybe smokers died faster07:01
tinwhiskersheh07:01
marchelzotinwhiskers: yes07:01
tinwhiskersWhere is all the data then?07:01
marchelzodunnp: that thread has links to dozens of reports showing the same thing07:01
berndjCyberManifest, yes, higher temperature makes all reaction mechanisms faster. things can slow down if catalysts get deactivated by the higher temperature though07:01
tinwhiskersI've only seen things contradicting what you claim, except for that one small study07:01
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: which thread?07:02
berndjCyberManifest, and i don't believe the air in your lungs is ever substantially different from body temperature07:02
CyberManifestberndj: I'm not really following, I just wanna know if I should crank up the thermostat or open my window to let in the cool night air.07:03
tinwhiskersCyberManifest: no07:03
tinwhiskersopen the window if you live with other people07:03
berndjCyberManifest, i don't know how all these things interact07:03
CyberManifesttinwhiskers: I live alone07:03
tinwhiskersthen it doesn't really matter07:03
PlanckWalkDo whatever keeps the temperature in your room more comfortable07:04
marchelzotinwhiskers: the reddit thread07:04
CyberManifestberndj: well, simply based on logic, from existing findings, it would make sense to turn up the heat instead of open a window07:04
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: ah, yeah, realised that. looking07:04
tinwhiskersCyberManifest: what do you think raising the temperature will do?07:05
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: "Shoot them dead": Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte orders police and military to kill citizens who defy coronavirus lockdown (10499 votes) | https://redd.it/ftx5kg07:05
sYN4P515wow, that's pretty extreme07:06
CyberManifesttinwhiskers:  weaken it a minuscule amount more than it otherwise would have07:06
marchelzoof 7162 COVID-19 patients in the U.S. 165 were ex-smokers, and 96 were current smokers. that's 1.3% of the patients who were current smokers despite 13.7% of adults in the U.S. being current smokers07:07
marchelzothat one is pretty irrefutable07:07
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: I see a conclusion that says: The calculated RR showed that current smokers were 1.45 times more likely [95% CI: 1.03-2.04] to have severe complications compared to former and never smokers. Current smokers also had a higher mortality rate of 38.5%.07:08
tinwhiskersYet a claim this paper says smoking is beneficial07:08
marchelzoyes that's what i've been saying07:08
dunnpmarchelzo: still need to look at demographics - the early cases were people that traveled a lot and/or were on a cruise ship07:08
dunnpwhich I imagine involves much fewer smokers07:08
marchelzolmao you're really reaching here. it's the same in the chinese data. it's the same everywhere.07:09
dunnpI don't think there is a conclusive result07:09
dunnpotherwise someone would have published it07:09
marchelzothey excluded diamond princess cases and people who flew back to the U.S. from wuhan in that 7162 study07:09
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: the claim that only 96 were current smokers out of 7162 patients directly contradicts what I just posted and is so extreme as to be totally ridiculous07:10
marchelzotinwhiskers: what does it contradict?07:11
berndjCyberManifest, it would be my guess too; not because it changes what happens in your lungs, but because it might degrade viruses sitting on countertops etc a little bit faster. but i know nothing about the temperature sensitivity of residence times07:11
PlanckWalkmarchelzo: Which thread?07:12
CyberManifestdunnp: I live alone, and have been pretty much isolated for 4 years, never traveled recently, I ordered a package on the internet, where I think I contracted the virus, or from someone of the once a week times me and my father went to a restaurant to eat. I didn't contract it by traveling; now I'm doing what I can to fight it, boosting my immune system as much as I can by diet, and trying to dete07:12
CyberManifestrmine ideas like smoking once or increasing the heat in my apartment to help weaken the virus07:12
berndjCyberManifest, i do know that copper kills virus faster than other more inert (for this particular reaction) surfaces like plastic or stainless steel07:12
CyberManifestberndj, if it on countertops it should have died / deactivated days ago, I've been issolating myself for like 3 weeks now.07:13
marchelzoPlanckWalk: https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/faluhv/an_exhaustive_lit_search_shows_that_only_585_sars/07:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews at 04:56 UTC: worldnews: “Coronavirus means that we must now treat China like a hostile state” → https://is.gd/eCy42R07:13
CyberManifestberndj: yeah copper is antimicrobial07:13
tinwhiskersCyberManifest: do you have a positive test?07:13
berndja virus isn't a microbe though07:14
CyberManifesttinwhiskers: I was trying to contribute to flattening the curve, also haven't had a primary Dr. in years and don't have the funds to see one, also with my infection week, I don't want to risk infecting others, especially the health workers on the front lines07:14
berndjCyberManifest, you're not going to infect yourself. you could spit on everything in your apartment all day, then touch that and rub it in your eyes and you wouldn't get infected, at least not because of your spit07:15
CyberManifestmy symptoms aren't severe so I'm staying home as it's been advised07:15
berndjwhat "infection week"?07:15
CyberManifestmy infection is week not strong07:16
dunnpweak07:16
CyberManifestyeah that07:16
CyberManifestweak*07:16
berndjyou mean your immune system?07:16
CyberManifestno my infection07:17
CyberManifestmy immune system seems to be mildly strong07:17
berndjoh! infected with what?07:17
CyberManifestCOVID-1907:17
berndjoh? test-confirmed or self-diagnosed?07:17
jbjllkhave you been yested07:17
jbjllktestes07:17
jbjllktested07:17
berndjalmost!07:17
CyberManifestberndj: self-diagnosed, I already explained I was flattening the curve as reccomended07:18
CovidfefeRoeyTrump got tested again btw07:18
jbjllktrump and the cia started this07:18
marchelzotinwhiskers: history of smoking reduces your chance of contracting COVID-19. if you *do* get COVID-19 your case is more likely to be severe. current smokers have significantly better outcomes than ex-smokers, which suggests that the short-term effects of smoking are actually beneficial.07:18
CyberManifestberndj: my symptoms aren't severe enough to be tested07:18
CovidfefeRoeyCyberManifest: hey you're the first covid-19 infectee I'm interacting with07:18
CovidfefeRoeynice to meetcha07:18
CovidfefeRoeyI am glad that you are feeling better07:19
marchelzotinwhiskers: where do you think i'm making a mistake?07:19
CovidfefeRoeyor t least, not bad07:19
CovidfefeRoeytinwhiskers: o/07:19
jbjllkcyber started this07:19
berndjCyberManifest, if you're a hermit like i am then as long as you stay home i don't think you're a danger to anyone, regardless whether you copen the windows or run an ozone generator inside your apartment07:19
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: that thread shows ex-smokers also have better outcomes than the average population (albeit poorer than current smokers)07:19
marchelzowhere?07:20
CyberManifestberndj: yeah I know, but I'm worried about my own health and getting better, sometimes the symptoms come back more pronounced after going away a bit07:20
CyberManifestberndj: seems worse at night07:20
dunnpCyberManifest: 3 weeks?07:21
IronYtinwhiskers: if ur reading the study I read, that is incorrect07:21
CyberManifestdunnp: I think I contracted it around the 18th of last month07:21
IronYnon smokers -> Smokers -> ex smokers07:21
IronYin that order07:21
dunnpdoesn't last that long, does it?07:21
CyberManifestdunnp: it's a virus, without a vaccine it can replicate itself indefinitely until antibodies and your immune system can eliminate it.07:22
tinwhiskersIronY: I read that in one of the links07:23
tinwhiskersNot sure which one now07:23
dunnpbut people are tending to be better in about 2 weeks07:23
tinwhiskersI'll have a better read07:23
IronYThis is my guess, But I assume has a smoker07:23
IronYyou have an added barrier of mucas07:24
CyberManifestdunnp: perhaps symptoms, they can become a-symptomatic and still spread it, and it would very person to person due to underlaying conditions07:24
IronYmaking it someone likely you can catch a droplet in that, caugh it up, and swallow it into the digestive track07:24
IronYsomewhat*07:24
CyberManifestIronY: Milk would be good for that then07:24
IronYCyberManifest: Milk does not coat ur lungs :P07:25
CyberManifestIronY: I know, but milk helps produce mucus07:25
marchelzointriguing hypothesis. most people seem to bring up the fact that smoking reduces ACE2 expression and the virus needs to bind to ACE2 to enter a cell07:25
IronYyeah its a attack vector decrease07:26
IronYbasically07:26
CyberManifestIronY: plus the added benefit of Vitamin D07:26
IronYwait07:26
IronYoh shit i thought u just said smoking gave u vit d07:26
IronYlol07:26
CyberManifestno, milk07:26
IronYyeah I caught that lol07:26
berndjis it the smoke per se that reduces ACE2 expression or the nicotine?07:28
CyberManifestberndj: opening a window helps me feel I can breath better, but the stiffness in my back and rib cage doesn't go away, but warm air seems to shorten breath but help reduce the stiffness and soreness in rib cage and back and such07:28
IronYmarchelzo: My hypothesis is based on two things, 1: A smokers cough is a productive cough 2: The recent talk around a 'gastrointestinal' strain that seems to be milder07:30
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 05:15 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases could be five to 10 million, says Australia's medical chief: Brendan Murphy says lack of testing means reported figures likely inaccurate; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW07:31
CyberManifestmy cough has almost entirely gone away but breathing seems to get shorter off and on through each passing day07:32
vaakits the the iceberg07:32
berndjCyberManifest, do you mean every day it's shorter than the day before? or just varying throughout the day?07:32
IronYCyberManifest: fever?07:33
CyberManifestberndj: it's hard to explain, like there is pressure, but sometimes not as much but it returns at night07:33
IronYCyberManifest: try lying on ur side07:33
CyberManifestIronY: may have had a very very mild fever one night07:33
CyberManifestIronY: I have07:34
CyberManifestIronY: laying any which way doesn't aleve the shortness of breath07:34
CyberManifester breathing capacity07:34
CyberManifestI don't know how to explain it07:35
IronYlung capacity07:35
CyberManifestit feels like it07:35
rajrajrajhttps://www.deccanherald.com/amp/national/bengaluru-specialist-cured-prince-charles-of-covid-19-ayush-minister-820546.html07:35
IronYhave you ever had bronchitis/pneumonia?07:35
CyberManifestIronY: nope, I used to have asthma when I was young, probably still do but not to the severity of it needing treatment in my older years07:36
IronYCyberManifest: Might be worth calling ur GP and getting an inhaler07:37
CyberManifestused to take medicine for it as a small child07:37
CyberManifestIronY: I don't have a GP07:37
IronYno one days, thats the new term for 'call what ever clinic u can call' lol07:37
IronYs/days/does07:37
CyberManifestIronY: also I don't trust any synthetics while my immune system is attempting to fight off this virus07:37
IronYCyberManifest: I would leave that to a doctor07:38
PainterAre you in the USA?07:38
CyberManifestyes07:38
vaakvac tester dude got anti-bodies cnn07:38
PainterIf you are, you're allowed to get free testing for COVID-19 if you suspect that you have it, if they deem that you require a test (lots of community transmission where you are, or you've traveled)07:39
marchelzoCyberManifest: when did symptoms start and how old are you?07:39
CyberManifestmarchelzo: started around the 18th of last month and I'm 3807:39
PainterIf you've had symptoms for that long, chances are that it's something other than COVID, I would guess07:39
IronY^07:40
PainterUsually the symptoms are sudden onset07:40
CyberManifestPainter: doubtful, I haven't been sick in years and I've been mostly in isolation for 4 years07:40
berndjwe still have "family doctors" here, but they don't come to your house anymore07:40
IronYberndj: doctors have never come to your house in my entire lifetime07:40
CyberManifestPainter: the symptoms were sudden onset07:40
IronYlol07:40
PainterYou could have it in your system for many days before you get symptoms, but once symptoms appear, it's generally a quick onset07:41
marchelzohow bad is the shortness of breath?07:41
PainterNor in mine, IR0NMAN07:41
Painteroops. I mean IronY07:41
berndjIronY, when i was a kid the doctor would routinely come to our house to check me out. old times (1980s)07:41
jbjllkhttp://www.onlinenewspapers.com07:41
berndjroutinely as in when i was sick, not just for the lulz07:42
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: I'm struggling to reconcile that 58% of patients were male among 1099 cases, and that this is attributed to smoking, with the idea that smoking provides and prophylactic benefit. I'm not currently disputing it because there does seem to be evidence to support it, but these two findings don't seem compatible. What am I missing?07:42
PainterIf you suspect that it's COVID and are having difficulty breathing, call the hospital to ask what you should do07:42
berndjIronY, and we're in a time warp, we're 10 years (used to be more) behind the developed world07:42
marchelzotinwhiskers: i don't think the male prevalence should be attributed to smoking07:43
CyberManifestPainter: I never had fever really except mildly once, never had diarrhea, but developed dry cough and significant shortness of breath or diminished lung capacity and had fatigue never got chills though.07:43
rajrajrajDid you see my post07:43
berndjtinwhiskers, not that i believe this, but it could be that the "natural" affinity is for 80% of patients being male07:43
tinwhiskersmarchelzo: well, that might explain it.07:43
IronYrajrajraj: India did not save prince charles with magical herbs and spices my dude07:43
CyberManifestPainter: they have enough on their plate, I think I'll be alright as long as I keep my immune system up07:43
IronYrajrajraj: its a nice thought though07:43
marchelzoi think there's some other reason why it affects males and elderly more07:43
marchelzoi mean the fatality rate among men is crazy compared to women07:44
rajrajrajIronY: its in thw news. What do you think cured it07:44
tinwhiskersmore men are smokers...07:44
IronYrajrajraj: Its on a shitty news website07:44
PainterFever doesn't have to be present, though it usually is. Diarrhea is rare with covid. It can happen, but it's not a determining factor in COVID.07:44
IronYtinwhiskers: Out here I would say its equal07:44
IronYI know just has many female smokers as male smokers07:44
IronYeqality and all that07:44
tinwhiskerswe don't disagree that the outcome for smokers once infected are worse07:44
rajrajrajIronY: its on almost every news websites07:44
marchelzotinwhiskers: yes but so few patients are smokers anyway, it wouldn't make a big enough difference07:44
tinwhiskers52% of males being smokers? You're not talking about China then?07:45
rajrajrajIronY: https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/04/03/ayurvedic-formulation-cured-prince-charles-coronavirus-minister-shripad-naik.amp.html07:45
IronYrajrajraj: Yes, notice the domain07:45
IronYrajrajraj: go find a .uk domain running that story07:45
rajrajrajIt has to be indian domain07:45
rajrajrajIndian news07:45
IronYrajrajraj: stop believing someone was cured by herbs and spices07:45
rajrajrajOk wait07:45
marchelzotinwhiskers: the male fatality rate is significantly higher in every country i've seen gender data for07:45
tinwhiskersok07:46
IronYmarchelzo: tinwhiskers that one is kinda obvious07:46
CyberManifestPainter: actually I think I may have had very mild chills one night, but otherwise just cough, diminished breathing/lung capacity, occasional runny nose, and fatigue07:46
IronYmales work in jobs that already generate respitory issues var more than females07:46
IronYI come from a mining city07:46
IronYthe ladies at behind the desks, the males are breathing in exhaust 2k under the ground07:46
IronYof course the males are going to fair worse07:46
IronYthe same would go with china07:46
tinwhiskersok07:46
PainterRegardless of any other symptoms, if you're having difficulty in breathing, you should be seen by a physician.07:47
marchelzoi read a rat study that showed that ACE2 expression declines with age. but it declines more in male rats than in female rats. (like 86% reduction vs 74% reduction or something)07:47
CyberManifestPainter: and with my diet I thought I had it mostly warded off, until the soreness came back and the breathing was reduced again and like I said it's been since the 18th of last month so it's been a fight07:47
IronYnot to mention my previous point07:47
PainterIf it's not COVID, it could be something else. Somebody that I know did travel, and did become very ill. (5 of them actually). They told one in particular that it was pneumonia.07:48
IronYALL people in most countries who die, while being infected with covid, 'died of covid'07:48
CyberManifestPainter: they're suggesting I "Flatten the Curve" my symptoms aren't severe enough07:48
PainterDouble Pneumonia (affecting both lungs) is a huge indicator for COVID-1907:48
IronYLadies have a longer life span already07:48
IronYthus the death count would have more males then females in it by default07:48
CyberManifestPainter: my breathing isn't so bad it's unmaniageble *yet*07:48
rajrajrajIronY: ok seems fake news07:49
rajrajrajThanks07:49
rajrajraj.uk saying  india promoting fake news07:49
rajrajrajHow sad07:49
IronYrajrajraj: I mean this by no offence, but at least it is business as usual in India :P07:49
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 05:45 UTC: Coronavirus live news: UK to open temporary Covid-19 hospital as Wuhan warned to be vigilant: Australia’s medical chief global virus cases could be 5-10 million; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW07:50
PainterWell, of course. If you don't need to go anywhere, don't go. That's flattening the curve. If you can't breathe, you're only flattening your own curve by staying home. If you have significant trouble with breathing, it's best to get checked.07:50
rajrajrajIronY: how is it a usual business07:50
IronYrajrajraj: the rest of the world normally associated most scams with your country07:50
CyberManifestPainter: what is odd to me though is they mention soreness of joints but honestly it's only my back, neck and rib cage that are sore not any other joints07:50
PainterFlattening the curve means that you avoid public places as much as possible. That means getting your grocery list together and shopping for two weeks at a time, rather than every third day or so.07:51
IronYCyberManifest: you just identified the places ur lungs sit07:51
marchelzoIronY: i wouldnt be so fast to assume that07:51
PainterRib cage is likely from coughing so much07:51
IronYmarchelzo: assume what? Sorry this is 3 convos at once atm07:51
rajrajrajIronY: i have a bigger question now07:52
marchelzofatality rate for other respiratory illnesses like influenza doesn't have the same gender disparity07:52
CyberManifestPainter: my cough hasn't been sever and has almost entirely gone away so I think it's something else07:52
CyberManifestPainter: they almost feel bruised07:52
PainterFlattening the curve means that when you do go shopping, you don't take your entire family out. It's not a "get out of the house day". It's a 1 person trip. 1 person (as much as possible) should be going into the store to limit exposure.07:53
IronYmarchelzo: limit the scope of data to heavy industrial regions and not the world as a whole07:53
rajrajrajIronY: i have a bigger question now07:53
rajrajrajIronY: what good qualities can you possibly find out in a scammer?07:53
IronYmarchelzo: It is a moot convo anyway, our numbers are all bogus07:53
CyberManifestPainter: they say to flatten the curve so more at risk patiences and medical staff are protected so the hospitals aren't overwhelmed especially with mild cases07:54
PainterFlattening the curve means that you don't go meet with friends and sit around in cars in a parking lot in your cars with windows down so you can yell at each other. That's not social distancing.07:54
marchelzoIronY: i think our data on fatalities is decent07:54
IronYwe have a moving target on confirmed, different countries using different definitions on recovered, and everyone who dies in most places that is covid+ died of covid07:54
IronYmarchelzo: it is not07:54
rajrajrajIronY: if you had to hire a scammer what position would you put him in and what work would he be responsible for07:54
marchelzoIronY: why not?07:54
CyberManifestPainter: no worries there, I don't even have a car, and I live alone07:54
IronYmarchelzo: because we are just saying everyone who died, died of covid07:54
PainterRight, exactly. Stay out of public places so that you don't get sick, so that staff in hospitals will have more time to be with the patients that they currently have07:54
IronYmarchelzo: we are actually not even following the standard set by the WHO in testing deaths07:54
IronYmarchelzo: As an example, did you read about the baby who 'died of covid'07:55
marchelzoi've read of several cases where they initially reported a "young healthy person dying of covid-19" and then later put out another article saying it was actually something else07:55
IronYmarchelzo: yeah that baby was in the hospital for 4 weeks, had complete intestinal blockage07:56
IronYit was always going to die, it had a very low chance of recovery07:56
IronYbut it contracted covid while in the hospital already07:56
IronYthus it died of covid07:56
PainterDoing all of those social distancing things is what helps to flatten the curve, so that the peak of the curve doesn't happen as quickly, so that when people are in need of ventilators that one will be available.07:56
IronYand this is how are counting these numbers07:56
marchelzoi think cases like that are rare enough and uniform enough to not make the 50k+ deaths data useless07:56
CyberManifestPainter: right, so it helps that I don't seek medical treatment and let more severe cases go instead07:57
IronYits all guestimates, the only sane way to interpret the data is on a country by country basis, and even then, with the redefining of recovered/infected/death on a regular basis, even that is flawed07:57
CyberManifestPainter: same for being tested07:58
PainterIf you begin having moderate breathing difficulties, it's best to go get seen before they become severe. They may be able to start you on medications to stop it from becoming severe.07:58
marchelzoit means we can't trust the CFR in the 0-30 age bracket because the media and seemingly some governments have a huge boner for reporting that covid-19 is just as deadly for young people as anyone else07:58
marchelzo"nobody is safe!!! this attacks the whole spectrum!!! x% if ICU paitnes are 10-44!!"07:59
IronYmarchelzo: it is a productive07:59
IronY'lie'07:59
marchelzopatients*07:59
IronYjust like: 'You do not need masks'07:59
IronYwas a productive lie07:59
CyberManifestPainter: yeah, I'm trying to monitor that, sometimes it feels like I can't tell, because I don't know if my breaths are shorter or if I'm just sore from my back and rib cage and *think* my breaths are shorter07:59
marchelzoexcept they're not productive, they erode people's trust in the so-called experts07:59
IronYmarchelzo: If the 10-44 years wanna not trust the gov when this is done, thats cool, but for now i want them scared enough to stay home08:00
IronYon the masks, if i told all of canada right now they need masks to go outside, there are no masks available, that does nothing but cause panic08:00
IronYmight even cause robberies08:00
marchelzothey should have promoted homemade mask use08:01
IronYthey wanted to delay the run on all PPE until they had PPE for people keeping the hospitals open, lights on, and food moving08:01
IronYwhich makes sense08:01
IronYsucks08:01
IronYbut it makes sense08:01
CyberManifestIronY: I was wondering about that; one town here in Texas has made it mandatory to wear a mask in public with a fine up to $1000; so I wondered what if you can't get access to a mask or none are available or are too costly how are you supposed to avoid being fined $1000 ?08:02
IronYsometimes you have to lie to the general public, the majority of the general public is not that intelligent, they live simple lives with simple routines, and spoon feeding them the truth slowly is better thenr ipping the corn08:02
IronYCyberManifest: Not leave your house basically08:02
IronYripping the cord*08:02
CyberManifestIronY: but grocery shopping08:02
IronYLook at our school systems out here08:02
IronYFirst they said: We are extending the march break by 2 weeks08:03
IronYthen they said: we are extending it until may 4rth08:03
IronYon may fourth they will say: schools out for the year08:03
IronYthis gives people the ability to adjust slowly to a new normal08:03
IronYif they had said in the begining of march school is done for ever08:03
dunnpour hospital has abour 10% of cases being 20-2908:03
dunnpits not none08:03
IronYthere would of been un-needed breakdowns08:03
dunnp40% of cases are under the age of 5008:04
dunnpabotu 10% of the deaths08:04
IronYthe concept is basically the same thing has institutionalization08:04
IronYwhen you get put into a inpatient/jail08:04
IronYit is a shock to your system08:04
IronYif you stay long enough08:04
IronYleaving is a shock to your system08:04
CyberManifestIronY: just another reason I don't wish to seek medical treatment08:05
berndjIronY, the problem with eroding trust is that then people stop believing not just the things that are false, but also things that are true, like that it's important that you stay home08:06
CyberManifestberndj: containment helps the overall picture, but yeah I know what you mean and agree08:08
IronYberndj: in most countries we are already well past 'eroding trust' in the government to be fair08:08
berndjyou can always make things worse08:08
IronYThe Media is just has much to blame has the government for the fails of the states in planning08:08
IronYthey spent the last 5 years telling everyone to not trust the government08:08
IronYthis is what you get08:08
IronYchoices have actions08:08
PlanckWalkWell, they were right08:10
IronY*facepalm*08:10
PlanckWalkBut yes, that has consequences08:10
IronYRight or wrong, neither entity was trustworthy, it was all for ad revenue, no one cared about anyone08:10
IronYbut here we are08:11
IronYthe one thing this is going to do for humanity is end the fake political correctness08:12
berndjman i hope it does08:12
CyberManifestsensationalization; not to down play the virus by any means, but we only now hit 1 million with the world Population at 7+ Billion, and there are only 53,000+ deaths overall and only 245,559 US cases with 6,000+ deaths compared to a population of 300 million+ ; the sensationalization and panic seems worse than the pandemic given the stock market and hoarding and public panic08:12
IronYberndj: all the rich white people who had no problems thus took other peoples problems on as their problems to the extent they made the problems worse will have other things to worry about for a few years08:13
PlanckWalkCyberManifest: The actual number of cases is at least 10x the confirmed cases, probably quite a bit more than 10x.08:13
IronYFor example, when fake claims of gender equality come up in lets say next year08:14
berndjhaha did you see the titania mcgrath tweet about that?08:14
CyberManifestPlanckWalk: yeah, but even still marginal to the populations and the give stats of daily death from other causes08:14
IronYFeminist: We need more more roar!, Society: You did not get killed at the same rate as your male counterparts, thus biological inequality worked to your benefit, shut up08:14
CyberManifestgiven*08:14
IronYberndj: link to the tweet?08:15
berndjIronY, yeah, that depends on the "adults in the room" standing up and telling the kids to shut up. i really hope they do wake up to their responsibility to do that08:15
dunnpCyberManifest: what has > 9k deaths per day in the US?08:15
PlanckWalkThe current situation, if it was frozen, isn't worth panicking over.08:15
berndjIronY: https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/124506568642420326508:16
PlanckWalkHowever, it's going to get a lot worse.08:16
IronYberndj: I am kinda hoping it because no longer impolite to tell people their idiots08:16
IronYberndj: if we can get through this with less a tolerance on ignorance as an excuse, ill take it08:16
PlanckWalkIf there was no massive economic disruption, it would already be a lot worse and getting worse still.08:16
IronYLOOOL at that tweet08:16
IronYHAHAHAHAHAHA08:16
berndjIronY, you do know who titania is right?08:17
CyberManifestdunnp: first thats not sustained we don't have 9k deaths every single day; but if you wish... suicides, drug overdoses, gun violence to name a few08:17
dunnpmy hope is that this puts a lot more emphasis and respect toward science08:17
IronYberndj: I do not, But I will make a point to lol08:17
CyberManifestIronY: https://imgur.com/TkMbYXp08:17
IronYThe comment section on this tweet is gold08:17
IronY"Either this pie chart is bigoted or the virus itself is. Either way this is problematic."08:17
CovidfefeRoeyhello, a close friend of mine put this tool out for measuring coronvairus: https://emscimprovement.center/domains/preparedness/covid-19-coronavirus/domainspreparednesscoronavirus-covid-19ppe/08:18
berndjIronY: spoiler in rot13: gvgnavn vf n cnebql nppbhag08:19
CyberManifesthttps://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf608:19
dunnpCyberManifest: meant 1-2k deaths but the point still stands08:19
IronYberndj: message received08:19
CyberManifestdunnp: as does mine08:19
IronYV svtherq08:20
berndjit isn't always obvious if one isn't familiar with them! poe's law holds08:20
dunnp123 suicides per day on average08:20
CyberManifestdunnp: *reported* and that's not for the entire nation08:21
dunnp130 drug overdosses08:21
CyberManifestagain, *reported* and not for the entire nation08:21
IronY3000 people get killed a day by car accidents08:21
IronYglobally08:21
dunnpits is for the entire nation...08:21
CyberManifestdunnp: your source?08:22
dunnphttps://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/prescription-drug-overdose/index.html08:22
CyberManifestlol, cdc08:22
CyberManifestthey're not going to have all the statistics08:22
CyberManifestdunnp: most of that is all under reported anyways08:24
dunnpis it?08:24
PlanckWalkUnder-reported?  So is COVID! ;-)08:25
dunnpforgot that they don't bother to hire epidemiologists to study these things08:25
PlanckWalk(By a great deal more)08:25
IronYPlanckWalk: It is technically both under reported and over reported08:25
IronYlol08:25
IronYso there is that08:25
CyberManifestdunnp: go take a walk down skid row in L.A. on most any night08:25
IronYThere is only 1 universal undisputable truth right now08:28
IronYCarole Baskins killed her husband and fed him to a tiger08:28
PlanckWalkCOVID-19 probably won't be as bad as spanish flu was, but it's a lot worse than most media are reporting.08:28
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 06:15 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia live news: chief medical officer says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 06:15: Boris Johnson ignored expert evidence over stopping pandemic, says ex-chief scientific adviser → https://is.gd/qMKt9G08:29
CyberManifestPlanckWalk: worse how? by deaths or by infections or coverage or what?08:30
tinwhiskersThe US saying they will only get 220k deaths seems optimistic08:31
CyberManifestPlanckWalk: and I think the coverage is enticing panic and exasperating things like shortage of supplies08:31
CyberManifesttinwhiskers: you mean over all or in the short term?08:31
IronYMy province is announcing their projections tomorrow08:31
IronYthere using terms like grim and sobering08:31
tinwhiskersCyberManifest: overall08:31
IronYmy federal government is not ready to release a federal model08:31
dunnpthe ICL report estiamted 1.1-2 million deaths in the US08:32
IronY^08:32
CyberManifesttinwhiskers: yeah, aren't they still taking measures of the ebola ?08:32
IronYno one estimated 220k08:32
marchelzoPlanckWalk: worse than most media are reporting? lol08:32
tinwhiskersdunnp: that seems much more reasonable08:32
IronYdunnps estimates are the most recent08:32
IronY%data canada08:32
BrainstormIronY: In all areas, Canada, there are 11283 cases, 173 deaths (1.5% of cases), 1979 recoveries as of 13 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 8.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries).08:32
tinwhiskersIronY: well, doctor what's-his-face that does the press conferences with Trump was saying 200k\08:32
CyberManifestdunnp, is that with or without people staying home?08:33
berndjdr fauci, who must have sacrificed 300 virgins to look like he's still 5508:33
marchelzothe true IFR is likely less than 0.5%08:34
tinwhiskers2 days ago - The White House projected the U.S. could face 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, as President Trump warned ...08:34
tinwhiskershttps://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coronavirus-count-excluded-infected-people-with-no-symptoms-1158565022608:34
tinwhiskers100-220 K deaths08:34
berndj"could face 200k deaths if we do nothing" does now equal "predicting 200k deaths"08:35
tinwhiskerserm. not that link08:35
berndjdoes not* equal08:35
dunnpCyberManifest: that is unmitigated08:36
marchelzohcq + z-pack and rhACE2 will bring the IFR down to flu levels08:36
tinwhiskersunmitigated should be millions. Even with mitigation 220KL is extremely optimistic08:36
IronYthe fact of the matter is08:36
IronYwe cannot trust any predictions from any government that is not willing to share their model (code)08:36
IronYfor coming up with those predictions08:36
IronYthat is not how science works08:37
berndjtinwhiskers, why though? even italy seems to be leveling off somewhere in the 20k region, no?08:37
IronYyou do not trust something that cannot be verified by multiple sources08:37
tinwhiskersagreed. That number is stark-raving mad08:37
IronYSO until some government goes a does a git push on how they are even coming up with their magic sauce numbers08:37
IronYthey are magic sauce numbers08:37
dunnpmarchelzo: hcq is dangerous08:37
marchelzolmao08:38
IronYdunnp: Weird, it has been used for decades08:38
IronYdunnp: fructose is dangerous :P08:38
tinwhiskersberndj: that's only a stalling tactic. see https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b08:38
IronYI just imagine somewhere out there there is someone injecting themselves with heroine, snorting some coke, and talking about how HCQ is dangerous ;)08:39
berndjtinwhiskers, what's a stalling tactic?08:39
tinwhiskersonce Italy lifts restrictions the number will increase again08:39
berndjah. you'd think restrictions wouldn't be completely lifted, only till R0 is around 0.99999, rather than back to the way things were at 2.508:40
tinwhiskersyou can defer (stall) the number but unless you plan on lockdown for 18 months there's going to be another spike08:40
IronYtinwhiskers: yeah but in the case of italy, they will have sadly bruned through their most vulnerable at that point08:40
marchelzoif 50% of the US population gets infected and the IFR is 0.1% with early intervention that's 150k deaths08:40
tinwhiskers0,1% seems optimistic, no?08:41
IronYno08:41
tinwhiskers0.108:41
marchelzoi don't think so08:41
berndj50% getting infected seems pessimistic08:41
IronYthis is not a overly deadly pathogen08:41
IronYcompared to previous pandemics08:41
IronYit would of been easier if it had a 80% fatality rate to be honest08:41
IronYpeople would of died, but it would of been a short run08:41
tinwhiskersthe case fatality rate is more like 2% until the hospitals are overloaded then it goes up to 5-10%08:42
dunnpICL model estimated 81% of pop would get it08:42
berndjif you did nothing08:42
marchelzothe IFR is nowhere near 2%08:42
IronYdunnp: that contradicts most science guestimating heard immunity is at around 65%08:42
IronYhurd*08:42
tinwhiskersherd08:42
berndjgnu hurd immunity!08:42
IronYyeah huerd08:42
dunnpIronY: well thats what they model gave08:43
IronYdunnp: and all the models are bullshit08:43
IronYwere back at the start :D08:43
dunnpno08:43
IronYyes08:43
CyberManifestdunnp, you think things will ease up by May or June like they seem to be implying ? Or is it just a front, while this will continue for a while longer ?08:43
CyberManifestI mean if people stay home, they'll have to come out eventually, right?08:43
IronYdunnp: GO take a look on how to make a actual mathematical model08:43
IronYu will find that there is not enough data08:43
dunnpthere oges my hope that people might respect scientists more...08:43
IronYfor a reliablemodel08:43
tinwhiskersheh08:43
CyberManifestI guess by then they'll have a vaccine though08:43
berndjisn't the herd immunity level just 1-(1/R0) or something like that?08:43
IronYdunnp: I respect science, ur not understanding science08:43
IronYdunnp: you will have ur reliable models in a few months08:44
marchelzoif you assume the IFR in SK is the same as the USA and extrapolate from their data (more exhaustive testing than most countries), the USA had ~900k infected 3 weeks ago08:44
dunnphttps://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf08:44
IronYawesome08:44
IronYcool link bro! lol08:44
tinwhiskersIronY: so what is your understanding about the expected death toll in the US?08:44
IronYI can paste u about 20 additional PDFS from different countries that will have conflicting information08:44
IronYtinwhiskers: Oh I am not gonna make any guesses on peoples deaths, thats where I draw the line08:44
dunnpIronY: glad to know that these people who do this for a living are just totally wrong08:45
berndjwhat are obesity rates like in south korea?08:45
dunnpgreat insight from some random person on irc08:45
kreyrenCzech republic is distributing more coin machines on protection gear and desinfection.08:45
IronYdunnp: You ever worked for the federal government08:45
tinwhiskersmmm08:45
IronYI have08:45
IronYin the department that does this ;)08:45
tinwhiskersIronY: what did you do there?08:45
dunnpyea well I'm the head of the NIH08:45
dunnpoh wait08:45
marchelzothat corresponds to an upper bound of 0.55% for the IFR08:46
IronYtinwhiskers: Software engineer, there were two projects, the other project in the company was literally pandemic modeling08:46
marchelzowidespread early intervention should easily bring that down to 0.1%08:46
tinwhiskersand your project?08:46
IronYthe company being a 'federal department' or stakeholder08:46
IronYtinwhiskers: Aviation security08:46
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 06:32 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: South Korea cases top 10,000, Singapore reports fifth death: South Korea reported 86 new coronavirus cases, taking the country's tally to 10,062, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/LHfprb08:47
IronYdunnp: go read ur own governments time line with a memory of more then 24 hours and you can see that they themselves admit their full of shit mostly by contradicting themselves on a daily or bi-daily basis, but then again, there telling you 'Things change daily, this is a daily discussion', ur just not listening because numbers comfort you, which is cool08:47
IronYu do not have enough numbers to be comfortable08:47
dunnpthink that the chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the imperial college london understands less about modeling than you?08:48
IronYdunnp: Are you defending the country that almost just started with the heard immunity plan?08:48
dunnp^ being the senior author of that study08:48
IronYlol08:48
dunnpit is a study by a university, not a government plan08:48
IronYi am not going to continue you arguing with you, keep listening to what the people tell you to do08:48
dunnpsmh08:49
IronYthe quicker you stop cherry picking ur data based on imaginary borders, the better off the advice you are following is going to get, take all countries advice, find the average, stay safe ;)08:49
CyberManifestdon't y'all agree panic is exasperating things though?08:49
marchelzoyes08:50
berndjas bad as this whole thing is, i see a silver lining: with all the testing capacity around the world now we'd make mincemeat of the next wannabe pandemic08:50
tinwhiskersexacerbating?08:50
dunnpthis is not cherry picking... this is the most clearly defined model out there right now08:50
IronYdunnp: that is what everyone is saying about every model that is coming out08:50
CyberManifesttinwhiskers: sure that too :P08:50
IronYyet no one is sharing the model08:50
dunnptheir model is in that paper08:51
dunnpI havent seen any other models08:51
berndjthey're "refactoring" it before they publish it08:51
IronYberndj: I would imagine the code would look like08:51
berndjbecause it's apparently thousands of lines of undocumented C08:51
IronY/ Declare a variable for deaths, FUck, is this happening, we are all gonna die, FUCK FUCK FUCK08:51
berndjand the way i've seen day-job-scientists write code, that could be real bad08:52
IronY^08:52
IronYI assume most countries have their models backed by Microsoft Excel / Access08:52
CyberManifestIronY: no reason ML and AI aren't involved08:53
IronYCyberManifest: governments are notorious for not being recent on technology08:53
berndjit'll be like i++; /* increment counter */ and then half a page down a line of code spanning 5 lines on screen with every letter in the alphabet as a variable, with at best a comment like /* calculate output */08:53
IronYCyberManifest: I would assume private industry is throwing all ML and AI at this08:53
CyberManifestIronY: except AI isn't that recent08:53
IronYCyberManifest: governments are still mostly running windows 708:53
IronYthey recently upgraded from xp08:53
berndjCyberManifest, this model was from the early 2000s era, before ML / AI became big08:54
IronYCyberManifest: I had to go through a 5 step sign off to switch from office 2003 to 201008:54
CyberManifestberndj: oh, I missed the model08:54
CyberManifestIronY: I don't doubt it08:54
jbjllkhttps://imgur.com/gallery/TMtbxyC08:55
IronYhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_pay_system08:55
IronY"Instead of saving $70 million a year as planned, the report said that the cost to taxpayers to fix Phoenix's problems could reach a total of $2.2 billion by 2023."08:55
IronYour gov cannot even get a payroll system launched08:56
berndjCyberManifest, https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/124183545470769971308:57
CyberManifestberndj: yeah it'll be interesting to see how that compares with what AI/ML comes up with08:59
marchelzohow would you apply ML here09:02
IronYin before someone tells me we will be cured by block chain09:02
marchelzowe don't have enough data from actual pandemics for a model to learn from09:03
marchelzonot to mention every pandemic is different09:03
CyberManifestmarchelzo: it could learn the rates of the existing data we have of COVID-19, like https://www.bing.com/covid09:04
IronYThats just a reporting dashboard09:04
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:01 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia live news: chief medical officer says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 07:01: Boris Johnson ignored expert evidence over stopping pandemic, says ex-chief scientific adviser → https://is.gd/qMKt9G09:05
CyberManifesto facilitate the production of data visualizations and dashboards of the pandemic, Tableau has created a COVID-19 Data Hub with a COVID-19 Starter Workbook. And Tirthajyoti Sarkar has published a Python script to illustrate how one could extract data from the New York Times’s COVID-19 dataset to create data visualizations of the progression of the infection. Amanda Makulec calls for responsible09:05
CyberManifest visualization of COVID-19 data, listing “Ten Considerations when Visualizing COVID-19 Data”.09:05
IronYthose are just reports09:06
CyberManifestIronY: it uses AI09:06
IronYthat offer some additional speculation09:06
IronYthat will change daily09:06
IronYas new data is made available09:06
CyberManifesthttps://towardsdatascience.com/artificial-intelligence-against-covid-19-an-early-review-92a8360edaba09:06
marchelzowhere is the AI part09:06
IronYlol yes man09:06
CyberManifestmarchelzo: see link09:07
IronYjust because u throw AI/Ml/blockchain/Hypeterm09:07
IronYat a problem09:07
IronYmeans nothing09:07
CyberManifestIronY: seems like a pretty revealing site to me09:07
IronYCyberManifest: It is just information to consume, it does not help stop the pandemic09:07
IronYand since we are not getting reliable case data / blood tests / random sample data09:08
IronYnot much of use can be extrapolated09:08
CyberManifestIronY: the information that is consumed is taken into consideration to help mitigate and stop the pandemic09:08
IronY"people are sick, more people are going to be sick tomorrow"09:08
IronYCyberManifest: that ship sailed, it was called confinement09:09
IronYthe only way to stop the pandemic is to lock everyone in their house for a few months, or a vaccine09:09
IronYCyberManifest: You realize hiv/aids is still a thing right?09:09
IronYSo is H1N1 (Spanish Flu)09:09
CyberManifesthttps://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/09:10
IronYYes, there are about 100000 of those links09:10
marchelzoim not seeing how AI is used on this bing thing09:10
IronYthey said the same thing in the 80s09:10
IronYabout aids09:10
IronY:P09:10
CyberManifestIronY: no, you didn't look at it09:10
IronYI dont have to look at it09:10
CyberManifestIronY: oh, so you know everything09:10
IronYwe have Zero vaccines in all of human history for corona viruses09:10
IronYzero09:11
IronYnot one09:11
IronY*sigh*, I wont continue and you can keep your false sense of security09:11
IronYbtw, the nypost is a tabloid09:12
IronYwhich is why I do not need to click ur link09:12
CyberManifestIronY: so you need another source of the SAME story?09:13
IronYur other sources are going to include the sun, a few other uk publications, and a few australian publications09:13
IronYthey are all owned by the same parent company09:13
IronYthey are called tabloids09:13
IronYthey are not new09:13
CyberManifestIronY: so what would you deem acceptable?09:13
jbjllkreal medical report09:14
IronYNothing, because no one who is qualified to d this would ever give you a straight answer because the answer is there are currently no answers09:14
jbjllkand the cure alvalible09:14
jbjllkout09:15
CyberManifestIronY: alright, good luck with that, for me, I'm gonna get me one of those tabloid vaccines when they become available and cure myself09:15
IronYCyberManifest: no you wont, but if it helps you feel better, sure09:15
jbjllkor die trying09:15
CyberManifestOr fight it off myself with my own immune system09:16
jbjllkwhich is how most will live09:16
vaakhttps://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/04/03/entire-april-2-coronavirus-town-hall-part-3-sot-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/entire-cnn-april-2-coronavirus-town-hall/09:17
CyberManifesthttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/johnson-johnson-to-begin-clinical-trials-on-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate.html09:17
dunnphere's the source paper for what CyberManifest's article was talking about: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30118-3/fulltext09:17
berndjIronY, coronaviruses are a pretty new virus family though09:18
dunnpseemed to work in mice but clearly a lot more work to do09:18
IronYno argument there berndj09:18
IronYbut it does not change the fact if you think a vaccine is a for sure thing09:18
vaakhe said that test + for anti bodies09:18
berndji don't see any reason to believe, a priori, that a vaccine for this one (or any other coronavirus) should be any harder to make than for random other viruses09:18
IronYberndj: We have a 100 years or so head start on flu vaccines09:19
IronYour last h1n1 thing was what 2009?09:19
berndjflu vaccines are hard to do because the virus mutates fast09:19
berndjnot because making vaccines is inherently hard09:19
IronYberndj: we are currently operating that this virus is slow mutating09:20
IronYbut again, that could change09:20
berndjit's hard when the virus attacks the immune system itself, as in HIV09:20
berndji thought i saw somewhere it's mutating around 8 times slower than the influenza virus09:20
IronYsomeone told me 10 times slower09:20
IronYso lets split the difference and say 9 for the sake of conversation09:20
berndjclose enough. maybe i'm misremembering the 8. it was about an order of magnitude09:21
IronYmutates 9 times slower, is incredibly more contagious how ever, so has a significantly larger amount of attempts to mutate09:21
berndjand i don't see an a priori reason for believing that this thing will suddenly radically change its mutation behaviour09:21
IronYberndj: thats our hope at the moment09:22
berndjit isn't an unreasonable hope09:22
aradeshwhat's that? coronaviruses in general?09:22
berndjit's basically a sane default assumption09:22
IronYberndj: There is not enough data for a sane default assumption09:22
berndjaradesh, not for now, just this one in particular09:22
IronYthere - is - not enough data09:22
aradeshsurely we don't know much about its mutation data yet09:22
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:11 UTC: Stocks slip as data shows China's economy still hurting from Covid-19 - business live: Stocks dropped overnight as Chinese services data showed the economic recovery from the Covid-19 outbreak may take longer than hoped — from r/WorldNews at 07:11: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War Two → https://is.gd/SfTBF409:22
berndjIronY, we have experience with LOTS of other viruses09:22
IronYberndj: Every virus is different, that means literally nothing09:23
aradeshthe problem is if africa and india become reservoirs for 100's of millions of cases of covid-19, there will be ample opportunities for new mutations09:23
berndjthis doesn't fall into some weird category like "attacks the very system that's meant to kill viruses", so (again, a priori only) there's no reason to go around with a "sky is falling" mentality09:23
vaakvirus are parsits09:23
IronYberndj: not yet, but there is also no reason to expect this to be finished anytime soon without accepting as a society on acceptable losses09:24
CyberManifestIronY: you remind me of the AI in The Last Question by Isaac Asimov "INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER"09:24
berndjIronY, every virus is "different" but they follow some patterns09:24
vaaklets hope thay dont want to kill the host09:24
IronYberndj: there is NOT ENOUGH DATA to find any meaningful patterns09:24
IronYeverything ur saying, the answer is, there is not enough data for it to be a reliable answer yet09:24
berndjit isn't reasonable to think that this new virus we know relatively little about is automatically going to be 100x harder to vaccinate against09:24
IronYand no one giving you these answers will tell you any different09:25
aradeshUSA had over 1100 deaths yesterday...09:25
IronYpeople are trying their best, no argument, there is just not enough data...09:25
vaakUSA 1st09:25
CyberManifestIronY: so let's just give up cause there is never gonna be "ENOUGH DATA"09:25
berndjsure, but "not enough data" does not equal "it's going to be the worst-case scenario"09:25
IronYwe are not even blood sapling ppl ffs09:25
aradeshwe'll certainly have a lot of data in a year or two09:26
vaaki dont think that what trump meant09:26
aradeshlol09:26
berndjCyberManifest, lol i was thinking exactly the same09:26
IronYCyberManifest: the thing with not enough data, is there is more and more data each day, this time in itself, will provide, you guessed it, more data, no one told you to give up09:26
aradeshit's not just data, it's time too09:26
IronYyou can keep talking about random bullshit you feel is true though, and that changes nothing09:26
aradeshwe've not had much time to study it09:26
ubLIXprogress succeeds in the attempt09:26
IronYffs this is how science has always worked09:26
aradesha lot of these studies aren't quick things09:26
CyberManifestIronY: you remind me of the AI in The Last Question by Isaac Asimov "INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER"09:26
berndjIronY, basically, if our immune systems are able to defeat this virus, then in principle a vaccine is possible to develop. it's the same mechanism09:26
berndjthe only real question is "for how long will a vaccine be protective?"09:27
IronYberndj: yes, you can make antibody vaccines, there hard to scale though09:27
CyberManifestIronY: they asked day by day, same answer: Insufficient data for a meaningful answer09:27
IronYberndj: You would not be able to scale an antibody vaccine to the needed level for quite some time09:27
vaakwith in year there will be vacine for the last years virus09:27
IronYberndj: and by that time, more and more people would have natural antibodies anyway09:27
berndjIronY, no, i'm not talking about monoclonal antibodies09:27
CyberManifestdata after data... "Insufficient data for a meaningful answer."09:27
berndji'm talking about the *mechanism* by which your immune system makes antibodies and clears the virus09:28
berndjIronY, it isn't a coincidence that people can't clear HIV and that an HIV vaccine is elusive09:28
IronYberndj: I mean, Listen lets just agree you go help people make vaccines and maybe you pull off a never done in history before small miracle09:28
IronYdont waste ur time debating it on the internet, you clearly know what your talking about09:28
IronYgo get it done, we need ur help09:28
vaakcovid is closer to flu that to HIV?09:29
berndjthe miracle would only be in how quickly we get one widely available, not in developing one that works at all09:29
CyberManifestberndj: problem... https://www.foxnews.com/health/up-to-10-percent-of-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-report-says09:29
IronY*sigh*09:29
ubLIXIronY: isn't it about time you went to bed?09:29
berndjCyberManifest, what's the base rate? what % of recovered flu patients get that same flu strain again?09:30
IronYubLIX: I think its time I drop this channel soon tbh, it used to be intelligent discussions in the am, maybe I will go make a vaccine09:30
vaaki thought its was called corona cause its cronic illness?09:30
berndjno, it's because of its physical shape09:30
berndjit has a "crown" (corona) of spike proteins09:30
vaakokay09:31
vaakdont they all?09:31
berndjno09:31
CyberManifestberndj: I don't know, I've seen mixed reports, some in China say the antibodies are effective there are even clinical trials underway for testing antibodies infused from recovered patience, but then I see other reports like that one where recovered patiences are positive again.09:31
berndjCyberManifest, these are different kinds of treatments09:32
berndjinjecting a recovered person's antibodies helps clear the virus, but it doesn't actually confer immunity09:32
berndjyou need the memory cells to have immunity09:32
vaakif you catch cold the virus become active again09:33
CyberManifestberndj: yes I know09:33
berndjand to get the memory cells, your immune system has to learn to recognize the virus, which it does by mutating antibody genes like crazy and finding the ones that happen to match09:33
berndjand it's the same mechanism that a) makes vaccines work, and b) lets you clear the virus naturally09:34
berndjso if humans can clear an infection at all, it's a strong hint that a vaccine is possible09:34
berndjvaak, which virus?09:35
vaakprobably you never get rid if the virus it just goes dormant till you catch cold09:36
CyberManifesthttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html09:36
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1022 cases (now 1018062), +11 deaths (now 53268), +85 recoveries (now 213217) since an hour ago — Sri Lanka: +1 recoveries (now 22) since an hour ago — Russia: +601 cases (now 4149), +4 deaths (now 34), +46 recoveries (now 281) since an hour ago09:36
vaaklike flu09:36
vaakdont you think?09:37
CyberManifesthttps://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/plasma-donations-from-recovered-covid-19-patients.html09:37
berndjvaak, the common cold is just caused by a virus that mutates crazily fast, so any immunity to one strain going around only helps for like 3 months until the circulating virus has mutated out of recognition09:37
vaakit makes lots of sense to me09:38
vaakso the virus mutated09:38
vaakso the virus mutates faster cause of cold ?09:38
berndji don't understand your question. which virus?09:39
vaakrespiratory virus09:39
vaakflu like virus09:39
berndjthere are many. the common cold is caused by one of them09:39
berndjthe common cold is not caused by the influenza virus09:40
ubLIXs/one/a bunch/09:40
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:30 UTC: Coronavirus live news: UK to open temporary Covid-19 hospital as Wuhan warned to be vigilant: Australia’s medical chief says global virus cases could be five to 10 million; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000 a day by end April [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW09:40
vaaki mean cold like in temprature09:40
berndjyeah true, although i think it's typically rhinovirus09:40
vaakwhy do you get flu in winter ?09:41
berndjoh, cold temperature. yeah i dunno. i think each virus has its own "personality"09:41
vaakall flu virus are like this09:41
vaakso the virus mutates faster cause of cold ?09:42
vaak??09:42
berndjmaybe because the virus is more fragile in warmer temperatures; maybe because in winter humans behave differently, and in a way that helps the virus spread09:42
blkshpreduced immune response in the winter due to less sunlight. viruses transmit faster in the cold.09:42
jbjllkhttps://imgur.com/gallery/mGeVNng09:42
berndjlike we huddle together more in winter than in summer, that lets the virus spread faster09:43
vaakreduced immune response in the winter trigers the virus09:43
vaakthat who it is09:43
vaakhow09:43
blkshpis that a question?09:44
CyberManifestberndj: here's one of the ones I was talking about: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075438/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-rise-after-chinese-scientists-find09:44
berndjin winter we close windows etc., keeping the pathogens in, so they have more opportunity to get into someone's respiratory system09:44
berndjvaak, it doesn't "trigger" the virus09:44
ubLIXvaak: well, sure, the immune system is more challenged in winter, but it doesn't necessarily follow that the infections you're thinking of are re-activation of dormant infections; it could just be that in a well-ordered summer immune system that the virus would never get a toehold in the first place09:45
vaakthe virus is dormant and reduced immune response in the winter due to cold trigger the virus to start reproducing09:45
ubLIXin an over-challenged immune system, more infections are going to succeed09:45
vaakthats what it is09:45
vaaknailed iut09:46
vaakitr09:46
berndjCyberManifest, oh right i heard about those rhesus monkeys09:46
vaakjust like flowers in spring09:47
CyberManifesthttps://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-infects-cells.html09:47
ubLIXvaak: consider that unless you a hermit, you are ceaselessly exposed to all sorts of virus, and that in winter more of these translate into symptomatic infection09:48
CyberManifestberndj: then I see reports like this: https://www.womenshealthmag.com/health/a31680268/can-you-get-coronavirus-twice/09:48
pwr22Morning everyone09:48
aldwichhi all09:48
CyberManifestirony[m]: You were asking how AI could play a role... https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-intelligence-composes-new-proteins-the-building-blocks-of-life-as-musical-scores/ Maybe with the protein of the Virus shell09:50
berndjCyberManifest, with any disease there will be people who get reinfected. because they have a broken immune system, or because of some other idiosyncrasy of either their bodies, the particular virus they had, or the antibodies they happened to make the first time09:50
CyberManifestberndj: or missassesment of recovery ;)09:51
berndjanother possibility is that one of the times the patient didn't really have a sars-cov-2 infection; maybe they just had a flu and the test yielded a false positive, one of the times09:51
vaakherps is the same you never get rid of it09:51
vaakits just goes dromant09:51
berndjbecause it hides where the immune system can't get at it09:51
ubLIXvaak: why do you think the common cold viruses cannot be cleared by a normal immune system?09:52
vaakyes09:52
vaakit surely hides09:52
ubLIXwhy do you think so?09:52
vaakcause the cold triggers it09:53
ubLIXok then09:53
berndjnon sequitur09:53
ubLIXberndj: eject eject eject09:53
vaakits just waiting for the right conditions to start reproducing09:54
berndjargument by assertion09:54
CyberManifestberndj: stuff happens like this happens because the government does this...https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html  &&  https://fortune.com/2020/03/10/gilead-coronavirus-treatment-remdesivir-being-used-washington-cdc/09:54
vaaklots hope they are smart enough not to kill the host09:54
vaaklike any good parasite09:55
berndjthose sites have a habit of breaking my computer; TL;DR version?09:55
vaakwich its what they are09:55
vaakcelular parasits09:55
CyberManifestnucleic acid instruction sets wrapped in a protein shell09:57
berndjCyberManifest, if only 0.1-1% of patients get reinfected, that's basically irrelevant09:58
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:44 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens today as Hancock says 'money is no object' — from r/WorldNews at 07:44: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War II → https://is.gd/XTcPze09:58
berndjit sucks for those people, but it doesn't at all diminish the herd immunity effect of a widely used vaccine09:58
aldwich"money of no object"? that was not exactly gov't policy the past decade wrt the NHS ...09:59
vaaksounds like an alien bio weapon CyberManifest09:59
CyberManifesthttps://youtu.be/h0xTKxbIElU10:00
ubLIXwhat is your native language, vaak?10:00
berndjvaak: https://www.longdom.org/open-access/sunspot-cycle-minima-and-pandemics-the-case-for-vigilance-2332-2519-1000159.pdf10:00
CyberManifestberndj: yeah10:00
vaakmabe its gods pest control baked into the fabric of life10:00
ubLIXvaak: can I persuade you to keep that flavour of idea to yourself?10:01
CyberManifestvaak, you saying we weaponized our DNA on other intergalactic species ?10:01
ubLIXCyberManifest: I would say same to you/don't encourage them10:03
CyberManifestubLIX: fair enough10:03
CyberManifestSo why don't we use CRISPER to make a Virus to attack the Coronavirus ?10:05
CyberManifestkinda like how hackers used good computer viruses to eradicate bad viruses ?10:06
n9nesthis is actually how its often done when you get a vaccinate10:07
ubLIXthe attack would have to be indirect, would it not?10:07
CyberManifestn9nes I thought vaccinations just induce the body to activate it's immune system10:08
vaakwhy not make the antibody instead?10:08
n9nesok, then it was my fault I guess - I think yes, this is more likely correct.10:09
CyberManifestubLIX I don't see why, I mean surely it could be coded to hunt10:09
CyberManifestvaak, use CRISPER to make antibodies?10:09
n9nesBut I remember it maybe different depending on if this vaccination viruses is 'alive' or not10:09
CyberManifestviruses aren't alive10:10
n9nesyes they are not10:10
vaakyes10:10
n9nesbut in virus terminology there is a difference between living and dead vaccination10:10
vaakuse CRISPER to make cells that produce antibodies10:10
ubLIXCyberManifest: "viruses aren't alive" seems to be the nail in the coffin of your idea of using them to 'attack' something10:11
CyberManifestubLIX: when I say hunt I mean bind to certain types of proteins10:11
ubLIXCyberManifest: kinda reminds of this cartoon: http://i.imgur.com/S7KWqlx.png10:12
n9nesubLIX, I dont think so. The term "viruses" are not alive is often used because of the fact that viruses dont have their own metabolism and that you can freeze them for thousands of years, but what you can do, is to destroy their chemical substance10:12
CyberManifestuBLIX T-Cells aren't alive either10:12
n9nesbut I'm no expert, just my cents10:13
marchelzoi just had a genius idea10:14
vaakdont think vacine think cure10:14
CyberManifestCRISPER mutate Corona10:14
vaakuse CRISPER to make cells that produce antibodies inject antibodies in patient = cure10:15
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 07:59 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia live news: chief medical officer says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 07:59: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War II → https://is.gd/qMKt9G10:16
generanot only crisp, but crisper10:16
vaakuse a bioreactor10:16
CyberManifestso UV would weaken the virus, even if it weakens our cells too, right?10:17
marchelzoimagine if every time a PCR test was performed on somebody, the result was sent to Google and they use your test result + all of their information they've gathered about you + your temperature, presence of cough, oxygen saturation, bp, hr, etc. as a training example for a ML model10:17
CyberManifestUV would maybe help mitigate contamination right?10:17
generathey use the UV on inanimate material10:17
marchelzoby the time 300,000 tests had been done worldwide we'd have a pretty good model and then people could literally test themselves with their phone10:18
marchelzoinstantly10:18
vaakUV good for disinfecting hospital rooms10:18
marchelzoimagine wearing an apple watch and you literally get notified: it looks like you have covid-19. you should go get tested10:18
vaaki suppose10:18
CyberManifestgenera: right but they could use UV like on hands and such to decrease spread, or like people walk through a UV kinda like airport security10:18
aldwichtests over mobile phones? what about privacy concerns etc?10:18
generanope10:19
marchelzoprivacy concerns temporarily stop mattering when we're trying to prevent millions of deaths10:19
vaakCyberManifest rave on10:19
generathe dose of UV that you need to have effect on the virus is .. high10:19
marchelzoimagine automated contact tracing and symptom monitoring10:20
aldwichmarchelzo: i agree with you on that. just saying. my concern would only be what happens to the data afterwards. will they get anonymised for research purposes?10:21
vaakUV would be good for disinfecting hospital rooms10:21
BrainstormUpdates for World: +713 cases (now 1018775), +2 deaths (now 53270), +1 recoveries (now 213218) since 47 minutes ago — Denmark: +286 cases (now 3672) since 2 hours ago — Romania: +1 deaths (now 116) since 2 hours ago10:21
marchelzoidk i'm not the one putting the policies in place i'm just suggesting an idea10:21
marchelzolol10:21
CyberManifestvaak, and grocery stores ?10:21
vaaki guess10:21
CyberManifestvaak, and most business, airports etc10:22
vaakhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionization_chamber10:23
CyberManifestwe're all going to end up with UV poisoning10:23
vaakUV poisoning?10:23
vaakLOL10:23
marchelzoGoogle could notice that you took 14% longer to walk to work one day and that your HR increased more than usual and that you're coughing a lot. combine that with everything it knows about you (age, race, interests, web browsing tendencies, screen time, etc.) and the prevalence of the disease in your surrounding area / time spent near known infected patients in the past week, etc.10:24
CyberManifestvaak: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diving_chamber#Hyperbaric_chamber10:24
marchelzoand determine that you have covid-19 several days before you would ever have even thought to get tested10:24
CyberManifestvaak UV could lead to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acute_radiation_syndrome10:25
vaakUV is Ionizating radiation10:25
aldwichbit like google search trends predicting outbreaks of common flu/colds10:25
vaakit kill everything10:25
mefistofelesmarchelzo: I don't think it's "several days", maybe just some hours, and still that would give a lot of false positives, imho... unless they train it somehow with a really large dataset, which is non-existent10:25
marchelzoexactly10:25
marchelzomefistofeles: you would seed it with data from the first 300,000 PCR tests or something. i'm mostly thinking for future epidemics10:26
mefistofelesmarchelzo: still, you would be overfitting for this10:26
aldwichnow picture this: these data come with your name and social security number, next thing you know, you not only get spam in gmail about flu medicine but your insurance premium might go up if these data are shared with third part, ie your health insurer ...10:26
marchelzomefistofeles: what? i didn't even suggest a particular ML model and somehow you know i'll be overfitting?10:27
marchelzoaldwich: you think google doesn't already know about your health conditions?10:27
mefistofelesmarchelzo: you would be training your model with the data from this epidemic, therefore it can be really not suited for future ones10:27
aldwichalmost like in getting your personalised QR code that prevents you from swiping into the metro/public transport. technically v interesting, as long as this does not get into the wrong hnds10:27
vaakthey use it in food to kill microrganism in food for extend shelf life10:28
mefistofelesand again, you will end up with many false positives or negatives and a bad accuracy overall10:28
marchelzomefistofeles: no, i mean next time there's an epidemic, start doing this right away10:28
marchelzoit could be like an online model or whatever10:28
aldwichmarchelzo: possibly, becoming the new facebook ...10:28
marchelzoevery PCR test will make the model better10:28
mefistofelesmarchelzo: ok, but it would take many days or even weeks to get a suitable training data set and even then Iç m not that sure it would work10:29
CyberManifestI'm gonna try to sleep now, good night everyone. Take Care10:29
mefistofelesbut it's something to think about10:29
vaakhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_irradiation10:29
mefistofelesI think the approach SIngapore and EU are trying is much more effective in that regard10:29
ubLIXmarchelzo: wouldn't you be afraid that the best it could do would be to identify patients whose symptoms were consistent but not diagnostic?10:30
marchelzowhy?10:30
vaakhttps://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/0c/Radura_international.svg/1024px-Radura_international.svg.png10:31
ubLIXwell covi-19 symptoms as seen by the sensor suite on a typical smartphone don't strike me as being promisingly specific10:31
marchelzoyeah the actual physiological data is missing. you'd need to manually take your temperature and blood pressure and oxygen saturation etc. but i'm wondering if somehow your behavior could be a very early indicator10:33
ubLIXto differentiate between covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses?10:33
ubLIXand other illnesses generally10:33
vaakafter covid19 all babies are coming out of a tube10:34
ubLIXvaak: shoosh10:34
marchelzoprobably not very well, but that's why it adjusts by using health data about curent influenza incidence, nearby confirmed infections of covid-19, etc.10:34
vaakcause social isolation lwas10:34
vaaklaws10:34
ubLIXmarchelzo: and data on the prior condition of the patient in question, i suppose10:34
marchelzoyeah10:35
aldwichnot sure whether a phone based app can be accurate.  the sensor might take your temperature but cannot do a blood test10:35
marchelzogiven enough information you could probably get very close to an accurate diagnosis without actually detecting virus RNA10:35
aldwichi think phone apps would be better to for tracing and tracking known positives10:35
marchelzobut anyway it's not meant to be a test. it's more like "isolate yourself from everybody and get tested as soon as possible" kind of thing10:35
vaakthe phone listens to you coffing and flags you has a +10:36
marchelzoor yeah it could alert health authorities that you're a suspected case and they could go test you10:36
aldwichthat would make sense. plus with gps data in the background, contact tracing should be a breeze. and then send messages to your physical contacts whos phone was within close proximity of you.10:37
marchelzothe main point is that there's a lot of room for innovation in this area that should be considered in preparation for future epidemics10:37
vaakyes10:37
vaakalso a self destruct optin10:38
aldwichi think we'll see a lot more pandemics in the next few decades. so now is the time to get busy. gov'ts are typically busy or ignoring these dangers till it's too late. like on the BBC last night. former health secretary admitted they should have done their research and put policy measures in placea decade ago. very helpful. the usual lack of momentum in quiet times10:39
vaaklike a needle in your smartwatch10:40
vaakwith cyanide10:40
code-glitchYeah I'd like to see wearables have more health monitoring functionality - then tracking would be made easier10:41
code-glitchThere are privacy issues with this though10:41
marchelzothe other option is to put literal microscopes on phones and use ultra high resolution photos of sputum samples or something as the training set10:41
marchelzolike how people use classifiers to make diagnoses from CT scans and MRIs and shit10:41
marchelzoand they're better than humans10:41
vaakwho needs humans ?10:42
ubLIXvaak..10:42
aldwichwe need a training set of good data actually. is idiotic the UK gov did not want to go down the route of testing. the more data the better!10:42
vaakjust aliability10:42
code-glitchaldwich : Testing doesn't stop the spread though?  I'm not convinced it would help that much.10:43
marchelzothe problem is you can't just test. you need to measure all sorts of other things at the time of the test so you can see what correlates with positive/negative results10:43
Butterfly^it could help reduce the spread10:43
Butterfly^how many people are spreading it while they have no clue? with testing, every person that knows, is able to actually isolate for 2-3 weeks10:44
aldwichcode-glitch: no it doesn't you're right. it's to study for future pandemics. now we're just racing playing catch-up10:44
code-glitchButterfly^ : true - didn't think of that10:44
Nokaji,[If te UK did testing, it woulda been easier to accuse them of still going down the Herd Immunity route (which incidentally, doesn't require so much testing)10:45
Butterfly^lots of people have no symptoms at all10:45
marchelzooff topic but do you guys think the reason healthcare workers seem to have worse outcomes than the age-adjusted general population is because when they're wearing a mask they can't shed virus? like they breathe it out or cough it out into the mask but then they breathe it right back in10:46
Nokajimarchelzo: I think, mask aside ... that it is bcz they get a larger dose, which overwhelms them10:47
code-glitchmarchelzo : My understanding is that its the volume of viruses they are exposed to.  Like a non-medical person might be exposed to 1000 viruses - but then a medic would be exposed to 10x that number10:47
code-glitch(numbers made up)10:47
aldwichmarchelzo: my hypothesis is they're more prone simply they're exposed directly and much more than anyone else.10:47
code-glitchIt overwelmes their immune system10:47
marchelzoyes we're all in agreement that viral load correlates with severity10:48
aldwichplus add all the other viruses that make their round in a hospital, their exposure is constantly higher, plus add the stress level, your immune system goes down, so their outcomes might be worse on average10:48
marchelzobut once they're infected they keep wearing the mask and breathing their own virus in, exacerbating the problem10:49
ubLIXlong shifts.. sleep deprivation10:49
code-glitchNo outside exposure (being outside int the sun increases Vitamin D producetion = increased immunity)10:49
adventurerThat's interesting  marchelzo is  there studies on it?10:49
code-glitch*production10:49
BrainstormNew from r/Italy Live* at 08:35 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA — from r/WorldNews at 08:35: Australia will impose huge fines for illegally exporting medical supplies amid coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/CXnlVs10:50
marchelzonone that i've seen but it seems logical. it's literally how you infect other people except the other person is now yourself10:50
code-glitchmarchelzo - interesting...10:50
BrainstormUpdates for World: +813 cases (now 1019588), +41 deaths (now 53311), +307 recoveries (now 213525) since 42 minutes ago — Philippines: +385 cases (now 3018), +29 deaths (now 136), +1 recoveries (now 52) since 2 hours ago — Denmark: +286 cases (now 3672) since 2 hours ago10:51
marchelzobut idk what percentage of virus shedding happens from breathing/talking/coughing vs how much is from antibodies killing it10:51
marchelzocould be negligible10:51
adventurerI had the thought about spitting flem...obviously gross and was illegal in spanish flu but maybe some  people naturally want to spit out that virus filled and maybe secondarily bacterially infected flem  out  rather than it staying in their bodies. I  am not advocating people to spit maybe down the sink only.  people don't ordinarly feel like spitting unless they have  flem or a bad  tastein their  mouth....from say virus infected flem they coughed10:52
adventurerup...maybe better to spit it down the sick than swallow it down and hope your body takes care of it10:52
Nokajicarry a packet of disposable tissues10:53
adventurersorry very gross10:53
adventureri also had  the thought of mask not letitng you be ventilated yourself10:53
Nokajior spit down a drain if absolutely necessary (which it never is)10:53
adventureroh10:54
ubLIXmarchelzo: i don't know, seems if you're shedding at all, the ratio of shedding to internal viral count would be infinitesimal10:54
NokajiI still recall seeing someone walking along a road, waiting until he passed a footpath and then spitting on that footpath where everyone will walk10:54
adventurerwell i am not sick but i was thinking like marchelzo about the only downside  of the mask being not ventilated stuffy breating back  in the same bad air10:54
adventurera little10:55
adventurerI wonder if anyone did a study if it made a difference how sick someone was if they spat all the flem vs swallowed it back down. sorry that is very gross10:56
adventureri doubt anyone else had that thought before10:56
adventurersorry10:56
adventurereww10:56
Codsworthquestion, who invented this virus, surely it cannot be natual of orgin with such timing of it being released10:57
adventurerthey can't really test on humans like that10:57
Codsworthnatural*10:57
Codsworthorigin ^^&*10:57
berndjmarchelzo, i think it's more likely healthcare workers have a bad time because they get larger initial doses of virus10:57
berndjso they're "ahead of the curve" relative to the rest of us10:58
berndjit makes me wonder if initial dose is also part of the explanation for differences in disease severity among non-medical staff10:59
marchelzoalmost certainly10:59
adventurerhttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/coronavirus-stroke-seizures-confusion.html?smid=fb-nytimes&fbclid=IwAR21GAzqOlIjfEOJRCKfU-qaNIxxJU30mQrHXdX44uKaZrouFq-3RejReOc10:59
marchelzoit also is in line with the study showing that stronger antibody response is associated with more severe illness11:00
marchelzobecause they start with more virus, by the time their acquired immune response kicks in they have orders of magnitude more11:00
berndjmarchelzo, like maybe we should teach people not only to wash hands, but to be slack-jawed mouth-breathers? or maybe teach them to be sophisticated nose-breathers?11:01
berndjyeah, it's like a microcosm of the global pandemic11:01
Codsworthbut "nobody" knows where the virus came from huh11:01
Codsworth"natural origins"11:01
mefistofelesno need for quotes11:02
berndjnatural origins is a perfectly plausible explanation. it's also the most parsimonious one i've heard so far11:02
marchelzoCodsworth: what's so special about the timing?11:03
CodsworthI had breathing problems since early dec, cant even go to the doc to get checked11:03
ubLIXhave you had telephone appointment with a doctor?11:05
ubLIXbecause if you're been having breathing problems for three months, and this is not normal for you, then you should speak to a doctor on the telephone11:05
CodsworthI would but I don't feel like being quarantined over something like Ashma11:06
Codsworthso instead, I just "hunger for air" all day11:06
adventurerDo you have Ventolin?11:06
Codsworthand lay down when I had a bad breathing issue11:06
adventurerDo you have Asthma?11:06
CodsworthI never been diagnosed with ashma but my dad has it11:06
Codsworthi just assume thats it11:07
adventurerDo you have a fever?11:07
Codsworthnormal feeling other than hunger for air sometimes11:07
adventurerDo you have a thermometer?11:07
Codsworthalmost as if i cant take a breath deep enough to satasify11:07
mefistofelescall a doctor11:07
mefistofeles:P11:07
mefistofelesdon't get medical advice here11:07
ubLIXfor three months?11:07
adventureryes mefistofeles gives  good advice11:07
ubLIXcall a doctor11:07
Codsworthyea, least 3 months closer to 411:07
ubLIXcall a doctor 2 months ago11:08
CodsworthI always seek medical advice on IRC11:08
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 08:50 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens today as Hancock says 'money is no object' — from r/WorldNews at 08:50: Australia will impose huge fines for illegally exporting medical supplies amid coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/XTcPze11:08
Codsworthno medical bills that way11:08
adventurerWhat country are you in?11:08
CodsworthThe orange king is my leader11:08
CodsworthI pay my taxes in cheetos11:08
ubLIXwell spend some of your cheetos on a salbutamol inhaler11:09
Codsworthdoes what I descibe, sound like ashma?11:09
Codsworthmy dad has inhalers, should I borrow and try it to see if it helps11:10
ubLIXif you really insist on avoiding a professional opinion11:10
ubLIXjfc11:10
Codsworthprofessional opinion = virus contraction11:10
adventurerhttps://www.hhs.gov/answers/health-care/where-can-i-find-free-or-low-cost-health-care/index.html11:12
TimvdeI don't know if it has been posted yet, but: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/11:13
adventurerthanks Timvde that's interesting to know11:15
adventureryou need to breath to live Codsworth i think you should try to see a doctor11:15
Nokajididn't trump announce free covid treatment for all?11:16
CodsworthI hope to as soon as I can without fear or dying, breathing problems + corona = death11:16
Codsworthso I dont want to mix the two11:17
adventureryou can try a phone appointment11:19
adventurerwith a doctor11:19
BrainstormUpdates for World: +2073 cases (now 1021661), +165 deaths (now 53476), +1270 recoveries (now 214795) since 32 minutes ago — Bhutan: +1 recoveries (now 2) since 3 hours ago — Belgium: +1422 cases (now 16770), +132 deaths (now 1143), +377 recoveries (now 2872) since 3 hours ago11:21
ubLIXCodsworth: have your occasional breathing difficulties been worsening or improving over the last month?11:22
Biep[m]<BobCat "Is there anyone in this channel "> I am not.  Still visiting super markets, and haven't seen a person with a mask yet.11:22
mefistofelesBiep[m]: where?11:24
aldwichplenty of masks here in UK. supermarkets have queuing systems in place, with 2m distance, 1 customer out, 1 in, tills have plastic glass separators and staff wear gloves11:24
Biep[m]Dutch/German border.  Either side.11:25
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 09:20 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global confirmed cases pass 1 million as Wuhan warned to be vigilant: Australia’s medical chief says true global cases could be five to 10 million; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000 a day by end April [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW11:26
Biep[m]Shopping carts are obligatory now - that is the distancing technique they use here.  In Germany there are queuing spacing lines on the floor, and check-out personnel wears gloves.11:26
aldwichfloor markings here too, and shelves are getting replenished. the end of toiletroll-gate11:27
twomoonwhat does 'positive in sense' mean?11:29
BobCatAlert- NPR has just stated for the second time this hour that 1 million people have died from covid1911:31
BobCatI thought they would correct that after a half hgour but NOOOO11:32
BobCatLA and NYC have asked people to cover faces with scarfs now11:33
BobCatWhen Trump said that, they laughed11:33
twomoontrump said that?11:34
BobCata stopped click is right twice a day11:34
BobCatyep 2 days ago11:34
generatwomoon, context?11:34
BobCatDr Fauci was saying it days ago just not officially11:34
twomoongenera i can't remember11:35
twomoonsaw it in some paper11:35
BobCatDr Birx is still being an idiot and saying masks make people think they are safe11:35
generapositive sense single strand RNA ?11:35
twomoonis birx the hot doctor?11:36
BobCatHero doctor woman11:36
twomoonyes genera11:36
mefistofelestwomoon: wtf?11:36
twomoonnow i know what to look for thanks genera11:36
aldwichBobcat: reg LA and NYC, to cover one's face when outside or when in shops?11:36
generagud11:36
BobCataldwich not required, just strongly suggested11:37
BobCatyou can't really force people to do things in the USA in public places11:37
BobCatbut stores etc can refuse to let people in11:38
aldwichBobCat: gotcha, i think masks have now become compulsory in Germany11:38
aldwichwhen shopping11:38
mefistofelestwomoon: positive sense is just the sequence that gets transcripted and eventually translated into a real protein11:38
mefistofelestwomoon: not even, hmm, hard to phrase it... more like the sequence that corresponds directly to the translated protein, rather11:39
mefistofelesaldwich: really? when?11:40
mefistofelesaldwich: link?11:40
generamef: only in certain states afaik11:41
mefistofelesgenera: ok11:41
mefistofelesI need to buy some groceries today11:41
dTalouch, good luck11:42
mefistofelesdTal: it should be ok11:43
aldwichmefistofeles: i beg your pardon, it was Austria that introduced that requirement, not Germany: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjhncbv-8voAhU7QRUIHUI5DnAQFjADegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Faustria-coronavirus-facemasks-mandatory-update-cases-a9438616.html&usg=AOvVaw37Lyuj0Q9d77qiyr5Po7Gx11:43
mefistofelesaldwich: ah ok11:43
adventurerThe pessimist  in me says the  government wants everyone on a payment so they can then add conditions aka control everyone like carrot and stick method...we gave you money so now here is a mutual obligation we didn't mention when you first signed up11:45
BobCatok but how much do I get?11:45
adventureror maybe they are really good and taking care of everyone trying to11:46
adventurerI don't know BobCat11:46
adventurerin AU it it starting to sound like everyone11:46
adventurernearly11:46
Albright%title https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241723786.html#storylink=bignews_related11:46
Albright"Idaho’s Blaine County has more coronavirus cases per capita than Italy and New York City"11:48
adventurereven if you are still working you get a payment or something11:48
Nokajiadventurer: I think it is a reasonable assumption that the govt will be even more in our lives after (& during) this Verona Crisis thing11:48
adventurerit's not like any government went crazy and couldn't be trusted *cough*11:48
adventurernaa they seem like they are trying everything to help11:48
adventurerhopefully we all get through this11:49
Albrightplease don't cough in here11:49
adventureroh sorry11:49
adventurerI didn't think of  it like that11:49
BobCatagain wear a face mask you dumbos11:49
darsiealdwich: mefistofeles: Yes, Austria did that.11:49
darsieNot sure when it becomes effective.11:49
BobCatI have been telling everyone I see for a month11:50
darsieThese days.11:50
BobCat"oh bobcat is that weirdo with the mask..."11:50
AlbrightIt kills me as an ancap but I'm probably going to go ahead and file for unemployment insurance at this rate. I guess I can just view it as filing a legal claim to property which has been stolen from me.11:50
BobCatAlbright even though I think ancap is dumb, what is dumber is refusing free stuff11:51
aldwichmaybe it's more psychological, to raise everyone's awareness above all else, to make ppl more concious decisions what not to touch, to wash their hands etc.11:51
AimHereAlbright, perhaps you're living in a situation which anarchocapitalism is unable to deal with11:51
AlbrightBobCat: If I steal a car from your neighbor and give it to you at no cost, do you think, "hey, cool, a free car?"11:52
BobCatSriracha hand sanitizer, you'll never touch your face again11:52
pwr22Yesterday a neighbour came by and gave me some free eggs from their cafe that is now closes11:52
pwr22Was nice of them, and nice to chat (at 2 meters distance)11:52
AlbrightOoh, that's brilliant, though.11:52
AlbrightAimHere: Considering I'd still have at least one of my jobs if it weren't for government intervention, not quite.11:52
ecksSpain has just passed Italy in confirmed cases11:52
BobCatAlbright having had several cars stolen from me by people who are not ancaps, does it matter?11:53
AimHereAlbright, what was the job and the government intervention?11:53
AlbrightAimHere: Working in the front end of a restaurant.11:53
mefistofelesecks: indeed, Italy and Germany are slowing down "faster" than pain11:53
mefistofelesspain11:53
BobCatI'm not opposed to Anarchy though, I'm better artmed than most people11:54
BobCatarmed11:54
BobCatand art med too11:54
AimHereAlbright, when everyone who gathers in a restaurant is swinging their fist in all of society's face, by spreading a potentially lethal disease, perhaps the non-aggression principle would warrant shutting restaurants down11:54
BobCatAimHere has a point11:54
AlbrightOh my gosh, did you just make the fist-swinging argument? Next ask me who will build the roads.11:55
BobCatWho will build the roads?11:55
AlbrightWHOEVER WANTS A ROAD BUILT but anyway11:55
BobCatAre you actually a capital L Libertarian?11:55
mefistofelesWho will pick the strawberries?11:55
AimHereAlbright, I made the fist-swinging argument in what is a novel situation where economic activity - the type that ancaps like - IS the swinging fist11:56
AlbrightBobCat: If by that you mean a member of a Libertarian party, no.11:56
AimHereYou're moaning about the government stopping you spreading a plague11:56
BobCatOh some guy on NPR is defending the PRC over this11:57
AimHereWhat's the ancap solution to this pandemic? Let the plague kill whoever it will?11:58
BobCatWell, do we really need those 70 million brown people?11:59
BobCatmight be 350M though, stats look bad in the 1st world so far12:00
AlbrightAimHere: Give people the choice to stay home if they want. If they choose to risk getting sick, and they get sick, well, that is the consequence of their choice.12:00
BobCatso maybe 70 million white, 120Mbrown, 120M black12:01
AimHereBut people need to work to survived, do they not?12:01
AimHereAt least in ancap-world12:01
AlbrightIf that was in response to me, yes, of course.12:01
AimHereAnd the upshot is that their choice is work, and risk getting plague, or not work, and starve12:01
BobCatNPR has just said .25M diagnosed in USA12:01
blkshp80% pay from the gov if you can't work here.12:01
AimHereFamine or Pestilence, two of the horsemen. That's  your choice12:02
blkshpPlus you can also go and get another job if you want to and get that pay too!12:02
BobCatComes a Pale Rider...12:02
AlbrightExactly. Currently, famine is being forced upon me.12:02
AimHereAlbright, you're being paid by the government to not work12:02
BobCatI have over a month of food left12:03
AlbrightNot yet.12:03
BobCat$200 worth12:03
aldwichAimHere: if we view this pandemic as one massive negative externality, gov should step in. it  would be a perverse situation when ppl are forced to work thus exposing themselves not only but also risking infecting others as well. that cannot in in public interest12:03
AimHereAlbright, maybe there's a  bureaucratic hassle, but it's far more of an answer than the anarchocapitalist 'solution'12:03
AlbrightAimHere: Or maybe it's the government offering a solution to a problem they created.12:03
AimHereAlbright, the problem they created being the pandemic?12:04
AlbrightNo. Making people not work.12:04
AimHereMaking people not work is the solution to the problem of every form of social contact being potentially lethal for millions of people12:04
python476o/12:04
mefistofeleshey python47612:05
python476hey mefisto12:05
aldwichagreed. and it be very costly to implement that swiftly and comprehensively12:05
BrainstormUpdates for World: +2766 cases (now 1030122), +135 deaths (now 54199), +13 recoveries (now 218586) since 23 minutes ago — Latvia: +1 deaths (now 1) since 23 minutes ago — Iran: +2715 cases (now 53183), +134 deaths (now 3294) since 23 minutes ago12:08
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:03 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens today as Hancock says 'money is no object' — from r/WorldNews at 10:03: Coronavirus re-emerges in county in China → https://is.gd/XTcPze12:10
adventurerSingapore seems  to be  doing well12:16
adventurerhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore12:16
mefistofelesyes12:17
Mumuks[m]What is the opinion about hydroxy chloroquine here?12:18
python476wait n see ?12:19
aldwichSingapore is a stickler for hygiene. the whole place spotless, plus given the size of it, much easier to manage even at micro/household level12:19
python476people say singapore climate helped too12:20
aldwichI think they learned from and planned post SARS, so they were prepared for that and had measures in place.12:22
mefistofelesMumuks[m]: "might do nothing, might do some good"12:22
mefistofelesaldwich: they were also prepared for this since last sars12:23
BrainstormUpdates for World: +727 cases (now 1030849), +14 deaths (now 54213), +1224 recoveries (now 219810) since 19 minutes ago — Romania: +445 cases (now 3183) since 19 minutes ago — Iran: +1224 recoveries (now 17935) since 19 minutes ago12:23
mefistofelesaldwich: ah you said that already, srry12:23
Mumuks[m]<aldwich "I think they learned from and pl"> Same as Vietnam, Asians were hit very hard by SARS and learnt the lesson12:23
python476aldwich: that too yeah12:24
mefistofelesthat's the main thing, tbh12:24
aldwichnw, the question thus is, why was the west so complacent about this? i remember back in Dec/Jan when the Wuhan story emerged, it was a side story in the news outlets and no apparent gov planning/preparing for the worst.12:25
mefistofelesaldwich: there was no time, no way you could prepare for this even since first case in Wuhan12:25
mefistofelesI mean, most of them did what they could, imho12:26
mefistofelesok, some of them12:26
aldwichthe UK did not. they played it down. then came up with the idea of "herd immunity" while numbers were starting to increase in Italy12:26
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:17 UTC: Covid-19 lockdown causes record fall in eurozone business activity - business live: Composite PMI data showed the Eurozone suffered its largest ever monthly drop in business activity in March, as the Covid-19 outbreak gained pace [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SfTBF412:26
aldwichGermany prepared, albeit a bit late, but their infrastructure is quite good. 3 times as many ICUs than in UK. UK again did nothig, suggested washing hands and singing "happy birthday" twice.12:27
aldwichBrainstorm: let's wait till US non-farm payrolls in a few hours. i expect carnage. US claimant count doubled for March. that's pretty unprecedented.12:29
Mumuks[m]<aldwich "nw, the question thus is, why wa"> Because they believed the information from China and that was a big mistake12:29
Mumuks[m]I think the west has learned the lesson of not trusting China when it comes to medical situations. The rest of Asia knew what was up and ignored what China was saying12:29
aldwichthere is an element of truth in that. their economic data were always a bit "dressed up" to put it mildly. we only have to look at the way they treated the whistleblower GP12:31
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:38 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll as Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 10:38: Asian cardinal says Chinese Communist Party to blame for covering up COVID-19 → https://is.gd/rMZtOW12:42
adventurerwikipedia is so stupid people spend all this time referencing state data for  some other people to just delete their references and change the numbers12:47
aldwichFT wrote: "The IHS Markit UK purchasing managers’ index for services, which account for 80 per cent of the economy, crashed to 34.5 in March, down from 53.2 in February, marking the lowest reading since records began in 1996." - https://www.ft.com/content/e8c47f34-32b7-44b3-8e8a-102f9d6c2ae612:47
adventurermy faith in random humans operating an encyclopedia has been diminished12:47
adventureroh well12:48
Urchinthe paradoxical thing about epidemics is that they end up not serious if you really take them seriously from the start12:51
aldwichWe should start adding up the total economic emergency measures taken right across the planet, this thing is bigger than the 08/09 financial crisis.12:54
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 10:50 UTC: Coronavirus map of the US: latest cases state by state: Coronavirus: world map of deaths and cases C oronavirus – latest global updates See all our coronavirus coverage The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 continues to grow in the US. Mike Pence, the vice-president, is overseeing the US response to the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/R3xYSu12:58
aldwichUK health minister Matt Hancock called it a once in a century event. He is most likely wrong. Black swan events like that are more frequent than we think/hope. So gov't and businesses need to prepare for that. a great deal to be learned from this one in the yars to come. but then it should not be about pointing fingers but get a global task force to combat future occurrences12:58
Nokajihe's almost right, it's only the third one this century13:06
Nokajior is it the fourth? ... so many I'm losing count13:07
Nokajibird flu, pig flu, sars, mers, covid13:07
flux1Nokaji: what do you consider an event? covid certainly overshadows them all, perhaps putting it into a category of its own?13:12
berndji'd say it's still below the "spanish" flu13:13
berndjperhaps only because we're more able to manage it; if this had happened in 1918 it might have been as bad or worse13:13
Nokajiflux1: well, I guess it depends what your definition of "it" is (boy, that sounds familiar)13:13
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll as Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 11:05: Brazil has determined that a woman who died on January 23 was infected with coronavirus, more than a month before South America's first confirmed case → https://is.gd/rMZtOW13:14
adventurerI guess  mosst people are just stupid that's why wiki is stupid I include myself,  it's just stupid to see  people  do all thi work that gets reversed and changed  with no new references in it though13:15
adventureroh well13:15
Nokajithe bulk of these are coming from china since it opened its doors to the world, iirc - I'd suspect that trend barring any change, is set to continue13:15
Nokajiplus, some suggest covid will be knocking on our doors again next season and every year thereafter13:16
aldwichmaybe we had a 10-yar dry spell and were just lucky. I agree regarding frequency, pandemics are here to stay and we should not discount them as 1 in a million extraordinary events.13:19
Nokajithe odds of the next one striking before we've finished paying for this one, are extraordinarily high I'd say13:27
yuriwhohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE39Ixulg6413:28
yuriwho%t13:28
Brainstormyuriwho: From www.youtube.com: 'Stigmatised': India's coronavirus 'heroes' come under attack - YouTube13:28
berndjwhat's different about now than 20 years ago?13:28
flux1interesting visualization: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Norway&location=South+Korea&location=Sweden13:28
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:23 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens as Prince Charles hails 'extraordinary collaboration' — from r/WorldNews at 11:23: Brazil has determined that a woman who died on January 23 was infected with coronavirus, more than a month before South America's first confirmed case → https://is.gd/XTcPze13:30
Nokajiberndj: two possibles are possibly china (trade) & weather & austerity (oh, that's three)13:31
berndjwe traded 20 years ago too. maybe not so much with china but there's 6 billion of us non-chinese13:32
berndji don't think the world has been disconnected enough to prevent regional epidemics from becoming global pandemics in 100 years or so13:33
berndjthe only difference the incremental connection makes is that a disease reaches further a little bit faster, but it doesn't make it more infectious13:34
Nokaji okay, china didn't have a Level 4 Bio Lab 20 yrs ago13:34
berndjhah, that too, but i think the more parsimonious explanation is just a zoonosis from that gross market13:35
Nokajithe hygiene levels in UK alone in past 20yrs, has dropped significantly13:40
aldwichin general or in hospitals?13:42
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:34 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll as Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 11:34: Brazil has determined that a woman who died on January 23 was infected with coronavirus, more than a month before South America's first confirmed case → https://is.gd/rMZtOW13:46
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War Two (10167 votes) | https://redd.it/fu35l513:48
oribaRKI says in press conference: we have more than 100 mio cases... but it's about 1.03 mio cases.13:53
berndjthe air in my city is visibly clearer13:54
farnoriba: NPR said that we've had a million deaths13:55
python476not if you don't count them13:58
Nokajialdwich: in general, ppl not only spit everywhere but they eject contents of their nasal passages by pressing one finger to block one, then blowing out the other onto the street ... plus so much more13:59
Biep[m]<oriba "RKI says in press conference: we"> I think the 100,000,000 is a good guess.  At least 1% of the world population has been infected, I guess.14:00
Nokajialdwich: and ... in shops ... it used to be a requirement that bought food got packaged in food-grade bags at the till, now everyone brings their re-sued, bateria-ridden filth-bags and wipes them all over the conveyor belts and counters ... food that used to be kept separate (dairy and meat) all goes in same bag etc14:01
aldwichNokaji: I see what you mean. But there's one thing I noticed over the past decade. Less and less chewing gum (=spitting) is on the pavement. Guess is down to the overall reduction of smoking cigarettes. oh, and btw, I would never ever touch beet nuts ...14:01
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 11:54 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens as Prince Charles hails 'extraordinary collaboration' [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XTcPze14:02
Nokajitrue - hadn't thought about gum but we do have a fair number of streets covered in dog poop plus at itmes it is impossible to navigate a street without passing everyone refuse bin14:03
aldwicheven basic things like washing hands used to be "optional" even in office environments. I do remember many times when guys left the gents, zipped up and left, and no hand washing in between, next thing you know those same hands were in the communcal fruit bowl. yikes^214:04
aldwichthen we had a case of food poisoning in the office and ever since this stopped, now everyone washes their hands. but that's a sample size of one office...14:05
Nokajiyes, hand-washing crossed my mind ... it has also been only recently where, for a while, you could go in a shop and the staff literally stank from lack of hygiene ... and they are handling food in some of these shops14:05
Nokajiseems that was clamped done on but it was a thing not so far back14:06
Nokajidown*14:06
NokajiI said at the time when they stopped providing free carrier bags, that the potential cost to out health services in disease, for the sake of a penny bag, could prove immense14:07
Nokajiour*14:07
Nokajiand lost work hours14:07
aradeshjust went to the shop - i saw a take away open, and a car washing place open, with a group of about 6 or 7 of the car washers all standing together in a group outside with no customers14:08
aradeshvery good adherance to the rules from our migrant community here.14:08
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1845 cases (now 1032694), +99 deaths (now 54312), +201 recoveries (now 220011) since an hour ago — Portugal: +852 cases (now 9886), +37 deaths (now 246) since an hour ago — Sweden: +510 cases (now 6078), +25 deaths (now 333) since an hour ago14:08
aldwichbut are reusable bags a threat? a virus might survive on the surface for a while. but that these bags might contribute towards the spreading? not sure tbh14:08
Nokajithe bags are no longer food-grade, some ppl have atrocious habits and the meat and dairy has no longer been kept inside an additional bag, inside that carrier ... food will break off and decay, mould & bacteria form and get dropped/wiped on food counter belts and packing areas14:10
Nokajithey've measured time a virus can survive on plastic, and it is more than long enough to cause a problem and be recirculated to others via a shop vector14:12
Nokajiit doesn't have to happen too frequently, one person infected is more than enoough14:12
Nokajiyou have hundreds of ppl per hour going through each till14:13
Nokajilast few times I hit a food shop, most of the staff had symptoms of illness14:13
Nokajiit's false economy14:14
aldwichtills are a hot zone in my opinion. was in the supermarket 2 weeks back. the cashier had a running nose. she had a tissue with her whch she used but afterwards did not use hand sanitizer. so when i was back home, i wiped down all (!) packaging top to bottom with wipes and called the store manager to address this. that really peeved me off14:15
blkshpyay for scan and go14:17
aldwichsecond that. now the contactless card limits have been increased. that helps a great deal. was GBP30, now GBP4514:17
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 12:09 UTC: Recession looms as UK business activity hits record low - business live: Composite PMI data shows UK business activity sunk to a record low in March following the Covid-19 lockdown [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SfTBF414:18
code-glitcharadesh UK?14:20
Nokajioh ... shout-out for waitrose ... was in their car park when I saw a staff member use a food trolley when emptying the bins ... he put/collected the plastic rubbish bags in the trolley14:22
blkshpoh lovely14:23
BrainstormUpdates for Zambia: +2 recoveries (now 2) since 12 hours ago — World: +2059 cases (now 1034753), +165 deaths (now 54477), +12 recoveries (now 220023) since 19 minutes ago — Japan: +42 recoveries (now 514) since 2 hours ago14:23
aldwichblkshp: i use my physical bank card not the phone. the phone i leave at home not to accidentally touch the surface. my wallet is in the hot zone so to speak. whenever i touched it, i wash my hands.14:25
blkshpI'm not being quite that careful if im honest14:25
code-glitchMe neither :\14:26
aldwichmaybe i am overdoing this, quite possible. the numbers in my area are low and my neighbours are generally all adhering to the rules. so the risk is minimal. yet, residual14:27
blkshpMY wallet doesn't touch anything and 90% of the time these days sits in the house, if im going out for a walk i don't take it and don't even take my keys, just a single key in a running thing i have for my wrist.14:27
blkshpaldwich: if you feel comfortable doing it that way it's not overdoing it14:27
aldwichblkshp: it does feel unnatural but keeps me on my toes. the biggest threat was having to take public transport to work, that luckily stopped. that is germ-central14:29
Nokajiit's hard todo enough in a shop ... if you assume everything you touch is infected, you hve to pack it all and then unpack it when you get home etc ... even your bottle of hand gel is gonna get contaminated14:29
Nokajias is wherever you keep the bottle14:29
aldwichif food packaging would be contaminated, that'd be an issue. one way around that would be to wipe all off before unpacking. i saw the supermarket staff using all blue gloves. as long as they don't touch their face - assuming again they'd be infected - that should be less of an issue. but 100% safety does not exist, maybe in a research lab where they work on the virus14:33
berndjaldwich, the main thing is to adopt habits so that your (averaged over many people acting the same way) personal R0 is less than 1. ideally zero, but 0.1 is okay too, and it's better than 0.2 which is better than 0.99 which is still better than 2.514:34
berndjthat final "still better" should read: "still A LOT better"14:35
aldwichberndj: absolutely agree. if we could only fast-forward in time, very curious to see whether the social distancing measures will have made an impact in 1-2 week's time. i am quite optimistic on that actually14:37
berndjaldwich, i used to be optimistic but i'm not so sure anymore; it seems like italy battled mightily to get things under control (have they even turned the corner now? i think so, but am not sure or up to date on things)14:38
berndji'm really getting behind the idea of masks being all but mandatory to squash this thing, despite "ordinary plebs don't need to wear masks" messaging14:40
aldwichwell, I had my hopes up 2 days ago when the WHO numbers for Europe seemed to slow, then the jump in Spain and France.14:40
Nokaji they wear the same gloves all day - prolly empty the bins with them etc14:40
berndjyeah spain looks like it's Italy 2.0 at this point14:40
AimHereBelgium and Holland are playing their part14:41
AimHerePro-rated by population, they're as bad as Spain/Italy14:41
AimHereOr nearly, at least14:41
Nokajino way I'd go into a supermarket etc without full battle gear14:42
aldwichthey should hurry up and get comprehensive testing in place for all NHS battlefront staff. otherwise it'll be Italy all over again14:42
AimHereinb4 Trump swoops in and buys up all the test kits everywhere14:43
AimHereYou can bet that policy of intercepting PPE shipments was reported straight to him14:44
aldwichhaha. he tried that with a German manufacturer/lab that is doing medical research to find a cure. they hold olde Donny on yer bike. no chance US will get a monopoly or first dips on any antidote14:44
AimHereYeah, but he's succeeding with mask shipments14:44
AimHereCrates are being bought off at 3x market rates, while on the runaways14:45
aldwichare we talking here ordinary surgical masks or the specific type made my M3 with filter and all?14:46
AimHereDon't read German, but it seems to be FFP2/FFP3 standard - the European equivalent14:47
AimHereto the N2514:47
aldwichthen i know which ones you mean. these are the ones with filter.14:47
berndjdid iran just stop counting or did they actually get this under control?14:47
aradeshcode-glitch: yeah, UK14:48
AimHereberndj, good question. It's been a linear increase for weeks now. It does look odd.14:49
AimHereIt doesn't look like either to me. A bottleneck in death reporting would be my guess14:49
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 12:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson forced to self-isolate for longer; London's emergency Nightingale hospital opens — from r/WorldNews at 12:39: NHS Trusts 'Are Sending Swabs To Germany For Coronavirus Checks Because The Results Are Quicker' → https://is.gd/XTcPze14:50
generahrhr14:50
aldwichtotally missed that. US unemployment rate now at 4.4% for March. was 3.5% in feb., their labour market is cr*pping out14:51
aldwichUS: 700k jobs lost in early March14:52
aldwichsource: https://www.ft.com/content/ba60772b-0bd3-3fdd-9b77-20dd8fcdcbef14:52
NokajiP2 is equiv to N95 etc, P3 is more akin to N99/10014:52
NokajiNIOSH14:52
python476still no call from city hall14:59
python476should call them again15:00
Nokajithere's also a popular mask that takes a disposable PM2.5 filter15:02
prathux[m]How to add that covid bot to other groups ?15:04
BrainstormNew from Scientific American at 13:00 UTC: Health: Coronavirus Disrupts Vital Field Research--Including Disease Transmission Work — from r/WorldNews at 13:00: NHS Trusts 'Are Sending Swabs To Germany For Coronavirus Checks Because The Results Are Quicker' → https://is.gd/eWpcd115:06
X-Scalehttps://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/04/02/why-you-should-flush-with-the-lid-down-virologist-warns-of-fecal-oral-transmission-of-covid-19/15:07
aradesh684 today in the UK... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/03/uk-coronavirus-live-emergency-nightingale-hospital-opens-today-matt-hancock-covid-19-latest-updates?page=with:block-5e86e5708f08532a0e66726c15:15
aradesh>900 for spain15:16
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 13:10 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll reaches 3,605, a record daily rise of 684 — from r/WorldNews at 13:10: YouTube profits from videos promoting unproven Covid-19 treatments - New report finds company is running ads on videos pushing herbs and potentially unsafe over-the-counter treatments for virus → https://is.gd/XTcPze15:22
BrainstormUpdates for World: +5073 cases (now 1039826), +705 deaths (now 55182), +66 recoveries (now 220089) since an hour ago — United Kingdom: +4450 cases (now 38168), +684 deaths (now 3605) since an hour ago — Serbia: +305 cases (now 1476), +8 deaths (now 39) since an hour ago15:23
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 13:27 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll in four days; Wuhan residents told to stay indoors [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW15:36
DocScrutinizer05germany: R(0)=115:37
DocScrutinizer05\o/15:37
LjLFor some Chinese definition of "told"?15:38
LjLDocScrutinizer05: how do you figure that? Or was it announced?15:38
BrainstormUpdates for World: +764 cases (now 1040590), +7 deaths (now 55189), +16 recoveries (now 220105) since 19 minutes ago — Germany: +764 cases (now 86667), +7 deaths (now 1129) since an hour ago — Singapore: +16 recoveries (now 282) since an hour ago15:38
DocScrutinizer05official15:38
DocScrutinizer05I already figured it since 3 days15:38
LjLI wonder why lockdowns work so well anywhere that isn't Italy15:39
DocScrutinizer05platteau at ~7k/d15:39
aldwichRKI?15:39
DocScrutinizer05yep15:39
DocScrutinizer05well, ARD/ZDF15:40
aldwichthanks ;-) thats good enough15:40
DocScrutinizer05RKI it's obvious: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/15:40
LjLAnd my puter ran out of battery despite being plugged in, bleh15:40
sYN4P515!corona eu15:41
CoronaBotEurope: Global rank: #-, cases: 537,540 (+18,654), fatalities: 39,797 (+1,735), active cases: 400,783, total recovered: 96,960, in a serious condition: 25,796. Mortality: 7.40%, case fatality rate: 29.10%, cases/1M: 900.6, deaths/1M: 66.7. Case rate: 32,608/24h, death rate: 4,375/24h, 1st case: -.15:41
jacklsw!corona my15:43
CoronaBotMalaysia: Global rank: #27, cases: 3,333 (+217), fatalities: 53 (+3), active cases: 2,453, total recovered: 827, in a serious condition: 108. Mortality: 1.59%, case fatality rate: 6.02%, cases/1M: 103.0, deaths/1M: 2.0. Case rate: 208/24h, death rate: 5/24h, 1st case: -.15:43
LjLhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-president-coronavirus-lockdown-shoot-people-dead/  he does seem to be a bit of a one-solution-for-every-problem kind of person15:43
jacklswduterte - following kim jong un?15:43
DocScrutinizer05shoot people down to protect them from fatality by virus. Makes so much sense15:47
DocScrutinizer05what's next? fuck for virginity?15:48
DocScrutinizer05war against war?15:49
bin_bashthose things already happen15:49
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 13:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll reaches 3,605, a record daily rise of 684 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XTcPze15:52
BrainstormUpdates for Austria: +145 cases (now 11383), +10 deaths (now 168) since 4 hours ago — Denmark: +16 deaths (now 139), +104 recoveries (now 1193) since 4 hours ago — Croatia: +68 cases (now 1079), +1 deaths (now 8), +4 recoveries (now 92) since 4 hours ago15:53
aradeshLjL: i don't think they're working well here15:56
aradeshLjL: as i said, i went out today and saw a take-away open, and a hand-car wash place open15:57
LjL:\15:57
LjLalso why the hell did the bot send the above update... pff15:57
LjLyuriwho, https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200331/p2a/00m/0na/021000c  "But why is it necessary for people to stop smoking as part of efforts to prevent both the spread of the virus to others and to reduce their own risk of heavy symptoms?" ← nice way to spin that paper in a way it was not meant to, while interviewing a doctor who "offers online treatment to quit smoking"16:07
NokajiBojo says he's served his seven days in solitary confinement however still has a high temp, so continues to isolate ... to put that another way ... seven days isolation isn't sufficient16:08
LjLthat's a way to put it that's not what i believe the UK government is doing16:10
LjLseven days, *and then* seven more days if you develop symptoms, iirc16:10
LjLmost countries just use 14 days16:10
NokajiThat could be, I'm just reporting what he has said personally, as interpretted in part by the radio16:11
Nokajiapparently bonnie prince charles was wondering about all over the place after his seven days but now seems to be back to self-incarceration16:12
LjLpeople who don't develop symptoms, or develop them late, do seem to be a problem with a 7+7 day policy16:12
yuriwhoLjL: anything that reduces lung function is a risk factor, smoking adds several other risks16:13
LjLyuriwho, sure, but the paper specifically hinted that quitting smoking makes things worse16:13
Nokajiboth Bojo & Charlie would have staff waiting on them hand and foot and thus qualify under the '14 day for family' thing16:13
yuriwhothats unknown16:14
Nokajithey were recommending to quit (I forget who)16:14
yuriwhonot enough data on the smoker/former smoker to say anything concrete yet, I would still advise to stop smoking at this point16:15
Nokajior at the very least, cut down16:16
NokajiChinese numbers!- china regularly reports circa 140 flu deaths per year, chinese statisticians put this as more likely to be circa 80,000+ - https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml16:16
Nokaji^ make that 'flu-related' deaths, to be pedantic16:20
Butterfly^https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/16:24
Butterfly^y'all need a title bot16:25
Butterfly^^ title bot16:26
Butterfly^https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/16:26
TinaSTitle: Bodies pile up on streets in Ecuador as coronavirus spreads - CBS News (at www.cbsnews.com)16:26
LjLi don't think we do, i prefer people to either describe what they're posting, instead of just dropping URLs, or else use %title manually if they think it warranted16:27
Debbie-Tester!corona US16:28
CoronaBotUSA: Global rank: #1, cases: 245,442 (+565), fatalities: 6,099 (+29), active cases: 228,932, total recovered: 10,411, in a serious condition: 5,421. Mortality: 2.48%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 742.0, deaths/1M: 18.0. Case rate: 29,874/24h, death rate: 968/24h, 1st case: -.16:28
Butterfly^!corona UK16:30
CoronaBotUK: Global rank: #8, cases: 38,168 (+4,450), fatalities: 3,605 (+684), active cases: 34,428, total recovered: 135, in a serious condition: 163. Mortality: 9.45%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 562.0, deaths/1M: 53.0. Case rate: 4,244/24h, death rate: 569/24h, 1st case: -.16:30
Butterfly^!corona spain16:30
CoronaBotSpain: Global rank: #2, cases: 117,710 (+5,645), fatalities: 10,935 (+587), active cases: 76,262, total recovered: 30,513, in a serious condition: 6,416. Mortality: 9.29%, case fatality rate: 26.38%, cases/1M: 2518.0, deaths/1M: 234.0. Case rate: 7,947/24h, death rate: 961/24h, 1st case: -.16:30
Butterfly^auch16:30
Butterfly^!corona italy16:30
CoronaBotItaly: Global rank: #3, cases: 115,242, fatalities: 13,915, active cases: 83,049, total recovered: 18,278, in a serious condition: 4,053. Mortality: 12.07%, case fatality rate: 43.22%, cases/1M: 1906.0, deaths/1M: 230.0. Case rate: 4,668/24h, death rate: 760/24h, 1st case: -.16:30
Butterfly^mortality rates at 10%16:30
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 14:14 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll in four days; Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 14:14: Bill Gates funding the construction of factories for 7 different vaccines to fight coronavirus → https://is.gd/rMZtOW16:31
TinaSTitle: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll in four days; Wuhan residents told to stay indoors | World news | The Guardian (at is.gd)16:31
Shock!corona Netherlands16:32
ecksfinally a bot that says exactly the same thing as another bot16:32
CoronaBotThe Netherlands: Global rank: #12, cases: 15,723 (+1,026), fatalities: 1,487 (+148), active cases: 13,986, total recovered: 250, in a serious condition: 1,182. Mortality: 9.46%, case fatality rate: 85.61%, cases/1M: 918.0, deaths/1M: 87.0. Case rate: 1,083/24h, death rate: 166/24h, 1st case: -.16:32
LjLButterfly^, please part the bot, i got the point, but we already have that available if we want it... which tbh, i don't16:32
LjLwe're already having an excess proliferation of bots16:32
Butterfly^hmm, ok16:32
Butterfly^the one bot i find most useful in any channel, is a title bot :) it freaking sucks having to click links to find out what it was about16:33
Butterfly^but ok, gimme a few minutes, i'll remove it again16:33
LjLyes, that's why people should make it part of a discussion, not just drop it there. i see it as a suboptimal technical solution to a social problem (suboptimal because in many cases it *is* clear that the url is, and then it just spams the channel)16:34
LjLplus, Matrix users would have to ignore it as they already have a built-in method to preview URLs, and most users are on Matrix in this channel16:34
Butterfly^half the time URLs aren't really that descriptive16:35
Albright%title http://schools.nyc.gov/freemeals16:36
BrainstormAlbright: From schools.nyc.gov: Free Meals16:36
TinaSTitle: Free Meals (at schools.nyc.gov)16:36
LjLyour client can describe them, and if it can't, you may consider another client. i really don't see this as something that shoule be done on the channel side. anyway, we all have different preferences, and last time there was a discussion about what bots should do, there were many *incompatible* suggestions. so at the end of the day, i decide.16:36
AlbrightNYC is going to give three free meals a day to all citizens. No word on when the circuses start.16:37
BrainstormUpdates for World: +578 cases (now 1041774), +18 deaths (now 55222), +92 recoveries (now 222332) since 35 minutes ago — Chile: +333 cases (now 3737), +4 deaths (now 22), +92 recoveries (now 427) since 35 minutes ago — Dominican Republic: +108 cases (now 1488), +8 deaths (now 68) since 35 minutes ago16:38
Fitbin%16:39
aldwichjust heard Singapore is planning for a full shut-down, all biz to close, only essentials to stay open. any info?16:44
LjLaldwich, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore#April_202016:46
LjL"The authorities will no longer dissuade the general public from using masks and will distribute reusable masks to every household"16:46
LjLsigh. i wonder how long the tail of people still "dissuading" others from using masks will be, while slowly every government starts encouraging them after dissuading from them.16:47
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 14:29 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll reaches 3,605, a record daily rise of 684 — from r/WorldNews at 14:29: Bill Gates funding the construction of factories for 7 different vaccines to fight coronavirus → https://is.gd/XTcPze16:47
blkshpstill gon't get the point of the masks unless you are infected or by someone else who is16:48
aldwichLjL: thanks16:48
ketasSeismometers Worldwide Detect Decrease in Human Activity Amid Coronavirus Lockdowns16:49
ketasthat's fun16:49
LjLblkshp, well the point is that i find it very likely (and so do some studies) that any type of masks protects you to some degree, even the ones that aren't really made for that, like surgical ones.16:49
blkshpbut how16:50
blkshpit's not airborne16:50
blkshpand unless you're in the path of someone coughing or you need it to stop licking furniture, i dont get it16:50
LjLwe have no idea it's not airborne16:51
LjLif anything we have studies suggesting it may well be, at least in some circumstances16:51
LjLi am yet to see a study that *shows* it's *not* airborne16:51
blkshpI think we do and if it were, the lockdown's probably a little pointless16:51
LjLand WHO's guesses don't count as studies16:51
aldwichbut can't droplets travel up to 7 meters or so? remember some footage on BBC last night i think it was.16:51
LjLsure they can16:51
blkshphmm, and maybe you're more likely to pick that up if you are wearing a paper mask that's become moist because you've worn it all day16:52
LjLhttps://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52126735 even the WHO is "reopening discussion" on the matter16:52
aldwichso these masks may actually work. the problem i see is that ppl don't use them correctly and by handling them with little care might inadvertedly infect themselves16:52
ketasi don't wear respiratory or eye protection nor do i disinfect my hands, clothing or grocery... easy to fail there16:53
blkshpI disinfect my hands of course because there's a proven benefit and there's clearly no negative.16:54
ketaserrr wearing that virus collector on your nose for days!16:54
blkshpprecisely16:54
ketasoh of course there is benefit16:54
LjLblkshp, actually washing or disinfecting your hands too often can lead to dryness, which in turn can allow pathogens to proliferate on their surfaces. now, as far as COVID-19 is concerned, i'm pretty sure it's best to wash your hands, but there *are* negatives.16:55
ketasdon't dry them out16:55
blkshpYEs and that's why i use a moisturising soap16:55
ketasand lotions16:55
blkshpno lotions16:55
blkshpThough that's not a bad cal.16:56
ketasbut at time you need lotions it's way too much washing16:56
ketasmeh alcohol is good solvent16:56
blkshpi did notice a bit of cracking on my right hand nuckles that;s why i switched soap! :)16:57
ketasdamn hard to be sterile16:58
blkshpThis is why i don't wash my hair everyday16:58
ketashow often?16:58
LjLblkshp, anyway, maybe wearing masks helps, making in some cases not (like if they become wet). even under the assumption there are studies hinting towards both directions (honestly i only remember seeing ones in the direction of using masks, while on the other side, i've mostly just seen arguments by authorities), there is also the objective fact that the countries that are seemingly getting the pandemic under some control are the ones where people tend to 16:58
LjLconsistently wear masks. now correlation is not causation, but when you have studies pointing both ways, and it is a rather pressing matter to decide what to do, i'd say this kind of correlation should definitely be considered.16:58
blkshpusually every other, sometimes 3 but i also have that dry stuff for on the run emergency days lol16:59
LjLs/making/maybe/16:59
ketasi don't like showers16:59
blkshpconsidered, yes17:00
penny_i like showering too much17:01
blkshpDon't use the computer in the shower :D17:01
LjLyeah, like, considered *and* not dismissed.17:02
LjLthe null hypothesis really isn't "masks don't help" here.17:02
blkshpIt is of my opinion that the wearing of masks does not make sufficient contribution during todays restructions that I will advocate the wearing of them. I do not say "they don't work" i say "I think they dont work or cause more harm" and only in a venue where people will not take my suggestion as gospel.17:04
blkshpJust to be clear. People make up your own minds.17:05
blkshpAnd another thing....17:06
blkshpLactose free milk does not froth for a cappuccino. :D17:07
ketasyou should not adjust or take mask off and put back on17:07
CovidfefeRoeyblkshp why are you always causing trouble in all your channels??17:08
ketashell knows how much it helps usual people without any medical knowledge17:08
CovidfefeRoeypffffft joking joking17:08
BrainstormUpdates for World: +3104 cases (now 1044878), +108 deaths (now 55330) since 39 minutes ago — Germany: +1564 cases (now 88808), +55 deaths (now 1193) since an hour ago — US: +1477 cases (now 246919), +54 deaths (now 6152) since an hour ago17:08
blkshp:O17:08
ketashow to cause blkshp lose what little self esteem he had17:09
penny_i use some petroleum jelly after washing my hands works very well to keep the skin from cracking17:09
Mumuks[m]Masks are somehow useful, they are not the end all but help. The reason they are saying not to wear a mask is because everybody starts wearing a masks, medical personal won't have enough, that's it, that's the reason for all this stupid controversy17:09
Nokajithere is a correlation between nations wearing masks and those who have best controlled the virus17:09
penny_Mumuks[m] yes so it was wrong for them to lie to us do you agree?17:10
penny_they should have just admitted we needed to ration them17:10
ketasit was norm in japan before any corona for sick person to wear mask17:10
blkshpThere's also a correlation of ice cream consumption and murders17:11
ketasnoone does that elsewhere much17:11
LjLMumuks[m], well, a few governments are (or are rumored to be) moving towards *no longer* recommending against masks, or even recommending *to* wear them (or in some cases, mandating them). that may be due to mask production slowly get up to speed with demand. anyhow, it's all been a political decision: from the start i've maintained that lying to the public just in order to obtain the desired result (even when it's a good result like letting medical 17:11
LjLpersonnel have them) won't pay off.17:11
penny_^17:11
LjLgovernments, WHO, Health Ministers, et: tell people A, then tell people not-A later. they won't believe a word from you anymore. and then you'll blame them for reading "fake news" on the internet. but it's YOUR fault.17:11
bin_bashthe WHO should resign17:11
bin_bashall fo them17:11
LjLnot that any of these entities are listening.17:11
AimHereblkshp, of course, but the ice cream/murders thing was definitely causative at some times/places: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Ice_Cream_Wars17:12
python476o/17:12
LjLhi python47617:12
FitbinYou ever watch anyone who's not used to wearing a face covering during their first couple of days wearing a mask?17:12
blkshpit's glasgow, i don't need to open it :D!17:12
penny_a democratic government, a government of the people, should not be lying to their own people!17:12
penny_the government works for us!17:12
LjLFitbin, covering as in?17:12
AimHerepenny_, the democratic governments are the ones MOST in need of lying to the people. If you're a dictator, you can just say 'I don't care about your opinion, do what I say or I kill you'17:13
blkshpalso, i would add, isn't the lockdown to 'flatten the curve' and not ultimately to prevent everyone getting sick, just to prevent them getting sick all at once.17:13
AimHereIt's the countries where the politicians have to get you to like them every 4 years that need to lie to you17:13
python476hi LjL17:13
penny_yes but then theyre not really democratic are they?17:13
AimHerepenny_, well which governments ARE, then?17:14
penny_and dictators lie all the time my dood17:14
penny_none i would say17:14
LjLblkshp, that depends on the type of lockdown. there is a difference between aiming for containment, and aiming for mitigation, although in some cases the difference may seem subtle in that the lockdowns are all "stay at home except". but for instance, the UK lockdown where people are, generally, still going to work is quite different from one where all non-essential work activities are stopped.17:16
Nokajipenny_: indeed, it is still a barrier of sorts17:18
Nokajieven if not the best mask for the purpose17:18
penny_it has to be marginally helpful17:18
Nokajiit has gaps around the sides17:18
penny_better than nothing17:19
Nokajiso better protection from direct spray than from aerosols17:19
penny_ya17:19
FitbinThe premier advatage of something in the nature of a surgical mask is psychological. which is *ahem* not to be sneezed at.17:20
AimHerePlot twist, it's ONE single really defective n95 mask.17:20
bin_bashlol17:21
penny_preventing asymptomatics from spreading is important too Fitbin17:21
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 15:15 UTC: US news: US coronavirus live: Fauci says 'I don't understand' why every state has not issued stay-home order → https://is.gd/mjLxxn17:22
penny_money17:22
penny_also just bc its unpopular17:22
BrainstormUpdates for World: +10969 cases (now 1055847), +420 deaths (now 55750), +1554 recoveries (now 223886) since 20 minutes ago — US: +10460 cases (now 257379), +406 deaths (now 6558), +1530 recoveries (now 11941) since 20 minutes ago — New York, US: +9810 cases (now 102863), +397 deaths (now 2935) since 20 minutes ago17:23
blkshpCovidfefeRoey: hehe thanks..17:25
bin_bashi have to go pickup some prescriptions tomorrow and im not looking forward to it17:26
blkshpGot a motorcycle helmet?! :)17:26
bin_bashoh i have masks17:27
bin_bashi have a couple n95 disposables and a half-face respirator with p100 filters17:28
bin_bashim just... not looking forward to going out in public17:28
bin_bashi actually may end up wearing goggles over my glasses idk though17:28
Nokajiit's one time where a burkha would come in handy17:30
Fitbin I have an Avon S10 and I'm unlikely to mask until the point at wearing that is acceptable.17:30
Acheronlooks like Covid-19 is making it into the Middle East17:30
bin_bashAcheron: it's been there for months, what are you talking about17:30
Acheroni mean other parts other than Iran17:31
bin_bashso do i17:31
Acherondon't get all jumpy at me17:31
CovidfefeRoeyAcheron: it's been there and it will be hideous in the next two weeks, outside of Iran.17:31
NokajiI will not be appeasing ppl who think dying is more acceptable than wearing a mask - I paid good money for that kit, I'm wearing it17:31
CovidfefeRoeyI dunno how the Hamas terrorist government in Gaza will handle this.17:32
pynai have TOO MANY FLASHLIGHTS17:32
Acheronyeah, its going to get nasty17:32
bin_bashCovidfefeRoey: they wont17:32
bin_bashor theyll blame israel lol17:32
bin_bashor both!17:32
CovidfefeRoeyIsrael is helping Hamas (how ironic) with it, I read today17:32
bin_bashisrael is always willing to offer an olive branch - much to its own detriment17:33
CovidfefeRoeyeveryone in my family in Israel is reacting to on FB to being locked down17:33
CovidfefeRoeybin_bash: aye17:33
mefistofelesDO you know anything about this french town with no cases?17:33
CovidfefeRoeyoh, fancy meeting you here, btw17:33
CovidfefeRoeybin_bash: ^17:33
bin_bashprotip though: don't get into conversations about israel with germans17:33
CovidfefeRoeyheh17:33
bin_bashive been here since the inception basically lol17:33
CovidfefeRoeyoh I see.  How long have ##covid-19, ##coronavirus, ##coronavirus-vox and ##CoV been around??17:34
penny_Nokaji sacrifice yourself for the cause like a good citizen ;)17:34
bin_bashawhile17:34
CovidfefeRoeyand why are there four differnet chanenls all about the same topic17:34
aradeshhmm. maybe i should get some disposable gloves. while washing hands is important, not touching things with the virus on in the first place is just as important17:34
mefistofelesCovidfefeRoey: this one since last october17:34
CovidfefeRoeymefistofeles: aye, ok17:34
mefistofeles;)17:34
bin_bashoh then i havent been here since the inception, i take it back17:34
CovidfefeRoeymefistofeles: I'm trying to determine which is the officialest channel17:34
bin_bashive been here like 2 months maybe17:34
mefistofelesCovidfefeRoey: haha, I was joking btw17:34
CovidfefeRoeybin_bash: I joined a couple daysaog17:34
CovidfefeRoeyago *17:34
AlbrightLast October? Wasn't the disease named "COVID-19" in February?17:34
mefistofelesAlbright: ;)17:35
CovidfefeRoeyyeah before that it was Kung-Flu17:35
AlbrightIHBT.17:35
bin_bashoh derp, this is ##covid-19 i thought this was ##coronavirus17:35
mefistofelesCovidfefeRoey: there has been many other names so it'snot really easy to track17:35
penny_just as in wartime citizens can be drafted, you have been drafted into not wearing a mask during this war against corona ;)17:35
bin_bashi wouldve believed ##coronavirus was arround since november run by the ccp propoganda team :P17:35
mefistofelesCovidfefeRoey: I wouldn't trust as the oldest one being the official, tbh17:35
CovidfefeRoeyoh hey again penny_17:35
penny_hiya17:35
bin_bashthere's ntohing official about any of it17:36
CovidfefeRoeymefistofeles: I mean.. not "official" then.. I just wonder why there are four chanels about the same thing17:36
mefistofelesalso that17:36
CovidfefeRoeyI mean, ##coronavirus-vox is about discussion of treatments17:36
CovidfefeRoeybut the othe rthree?  Why not just combine them?17:36
AlbrightWhy "vox?"17:36
Nokajipenny_: I've actually put some thought into my PPE and go fairly stylish, making a fashion statement so that ppl could even envy rather than object to it17:36
mefistofelesCovidfefeRoey: differences in admin is one reason17:36
penny_neato17:36
CovidfefeRoey¯\_(ツ)_/¯   Everyone knows Vox is a trusted news source17:36
CovidfefeRoeymefistofeles: sure17:36
LjLCovidfefeRoey, because combining channels often goes very wrong, and while i am in a decent relationship with the people running the other channels, that sounds like a perfect way to ruin it17:36
Albrightlolololo17:36
bin_bashi dont think it's related to vox media17:36
mefistofelesalso there are some that are just a proxy for 4chan and conspiracy theorists etc.17:37
CovidfefeRoeybin_bash: oh! ok, thank you very much for cluing me in to that17:37
mefistofelesand all in between17:37
CovidfefeRoeyLjL: fine, fine.17:37
penny_its good to have different channels. if everyone was in one channel it would go too fast17:37
NokajiCCP Virus17:37
LjLalso while you were talking about channels did you notice the US just had a +10000 update17:37
CovidfefeRoeypenny_: true17:37
CovidfefeRoeyljL: wha--17:37
LjLwell the bot posted it17:37
CovidfefeRoeyoh my god17:38
mefistofelesthe antibody tests are coming, they would probably show that these Imperial COllege models are somewhat right, I think17:38
CovidfefeRoeyUSA +12,50217:38
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 15:29 UTC: US economy sheds jobs for first time since 2010 as coronavirus hits – business live: Live coverage as American payrolls data shows big rise in unemployment, after composite PMI data shows UK business activity sunk to a record low in March following the Covid-19 lockdown [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SfTBF417:38
CovidfefeRoeyhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/17:38
mefistofelesmillions of infected people already17:38
eckssure hope so17:38
BrainstormUpdates for World: +759 cases (now 1056606), +10 deaths (now 55760), +5 recoveries (now 223891) since 19 minutes ago — Canada: +464 cases (now 11747) since an hour ago — Maryland, US: +427 cases (now 2758), +6 deaths (now 42) since 35 minutes ago17:38
dTal"sure hope so"?17:38
ecksfor sure17:39
mefistofelesdTal: yes, its good17:39
ecksthat would mean most people are asymptomatic17:39
CovidfefeRoeyBrainstorm: I just got a letter from my employer saying that we're all a family (yeah, choke on a dick) and how they are identifying workers to furlough "temporarily" even though they say they don't know when they would take them back17:39
mefistofelesand that the death rate is way way lower17:39
dTalmmm I see17:39
aradeshecks: unless they're going to become symptomatic later after having it for about 2 weeks17:39
CovidfefeRoeydTal: o/17:39
CovidfefeRoeydTal: haven't seen you in a while17:39
eckssounds unlikely17:40
dTal\o but I don't recognize you17:40
FitbinBottom line is until we get, more or less, universal testing we're not gonna know.17:40
CovidfefeRoeydTal:  yeah probably so.. I don't remmeber where I saw you first on IRC17:40
CovidfefeRoeyeither.17:40
dTalI'm going to assume it's before you assumed a covid-related nick17:40
CovidfefeRoey"Roey"17:40
CovidfefeRoeydTal: maybe I was thinking of this famous chess player Mikhail Tal17:42
LjLecks, actually it doesn't sound unlikely... in the few studies that have been made on asymptomatic people (we definitely need more, antibody tests will hopefully give us a hand in figuring it out), eventually the vast majority of them *did* develop symptoms17:42
CovidfefeRoeyljl: ahh17:42
penny_wow interesting17:42
eckswell, as long as they're developing mild symptoms. the median is something like 5 days, right? seems unlikely that these millions of infected would all decide to wait until 14 days to develop symptoms17:42
penny_maybe the symptoms are just sooo mild that people dont even realize theyre symptoms?17:44
LjLecks, well they wouldn't necessarily take 14 days, but i don't think that was a core part of aradesh's argument... i don't know whether those "caught" asymptomatic tend to develop mild or strong symptoms, but if they do develop symptoms that are milder than average, for all i know they may take longer to develop them too17:44
Butterfly^https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/feverish-boris-johnson-will-continue-isolate-covid-19-symptoms-worsen %title17:44
Butterfly^itle: A Feverish Boris Johnson Will Continue To Isolate As COVID-19 Symptoms Worsen | Zero Hedge (at www.zerohedge.com)17:45
LjLpenny_, that definitely happens, and was found to be one of the major drivers of transmission, as people are most infectious when they are just starting to get symptoms17:45
penny_hm17:45
ecks"But with UK and European stocks already in the red, the video did nothing to lift investor confidence, as Johnson, pale as a sheet and shiny with sweat, appears to be extremely ill." lol wtf17:46
LjLanyway this is from the WHO-China joint report, for those who believe anything the WHO says: "Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on todevelop disease.  The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission."17:46
eckshe looks like me during this morning's Zoom meeting, nothing more17:46
penny_has this already been posted? https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understand-about-asymptomatic-carriers-if-were-going-to-beat-coronavirus17:46
LjL"relatively rare" though means quite possibly 50% according to a more recent study17:46
LjLpenny_, well i don't know, but it cites the report i just cited17:47
penny_ah17:47
LjLwhich is available at https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf if you want a long boring read17:47
penny_:)17:47
JigsyI see the UK recovery stats has been removed from Wikipedia.17:52
Jigsy%cases UK17:52
BrainstormUpdates for World: +643 cases (now 1057249), +39 deaths (now 55799), +116 recoveries (now 224007) since 18 minutes ago — Germany: +643 cases (now 89451), +15 deaths (now 1208) since 49 minutes ago — Canada: +464 cases (now 11747) since an hour ago17:52
BrainstormJigsy: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 38168 cases, 3605 deaths (9.4% of cases), 135 recoveries as of 3 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.17:52
LjLJigsy, page?17:53
Jigsyhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic17:53
JigsyThat one.17:53
JigsyNow it's just: -17:53
CovidfefeRoeybin_bash: https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Coronavirus-Israel-must-help-Hamas-without-creating-a-security-threat-623409  <-- this is the article I saw17:53
CovidfefeRoey%cases US17:54
BrainstormCovidfefeRoey: In all areas, US, there are 257379 cases, 6558 deaths (2.5% of cases), 11941 recoveries as of 5 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.17:54
CovidfefeRoey%cases Israel17:54
BrainstormCovidfefeRoey: In all areas, Israel, there are 7030 cases, 39 deaths (0.6% of cases), 338 recoveries as of 5 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data.17:54
LjLLombardy has +1455 positives and +351 dead today17:55
nixonixthe reason for -vox channel was, that the main channel coronavirus got flooded with too much off-topic discussion, so it was hard to follow stuff that was about virology, epidemiology and events related closely to epidemic. there also was a survey, where people were asked, if two separate chans was a good idea. when i answered, the side supporting it was clearly winning17:55
CovidfefeRoeynixonix: thank you17:56
CovidfefeRoeyfor clarifying that.17:56
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 15:45 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: US coronavirus live: Cuomo to seize ventilators from owners to give to hospitals in need — from r/WorldNews at 15:45: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' → https://is.gd/mjLxxn17:56
CovidfefeRoey^ this is autocracy.17:56
LjLJigsy, that page already listed N/A recoveries in the UK back before the end of March... the source for the data (which is Public Health England) just doesn't include it17:57
LjLnot a huge loss really, since recoveries are all over the place in pretty much every country17:58
aradeshLjL, ecks: what i meant is while there will be millions of infected around the world, the majority of them will be in the early stage of infection18:02
LjLLombardy has 163 more new positives than yesterday18:03
LjLyet government calls it "comforting"18:03
LjLthe deaths have gone down a little18:03
NokajiUK Govt LIVE - https://youtu.be/1yGfb_J2NjI18:03
aradeshonce the amount of new cases each day is becoming fewer than the previosu day, it's good news18:04
aradeshbecause it means fewer peolpe are being infected each day, which hopefully means its on the way out18:04
LjLaradesh, yes, and that is only tentatively happening in Italy, while in Lombardy in particular, Milan and Turin look like they're rising18:05
FitbinLombardy has been on "lockdown" since 08/0318:07
penny_you would think there would have been a drop in the daily infections by now18:07
LjLpenny_, it's always "in the next few days" if you listen to the press conferences18:08
penny_certainly in a week or two they wont be able to say that anymore18:08
BrainstormUpdates for World: +5656 cases (now 1062905), +790 deaths (now 56589), +1596 recoveries (now 225603) since 19 minutes ago — Italy: +4585 cases (now 119827), +766 deaths (now 14681), +1480 recoveries (now 19758) since 19 minutes ago — Lombardia, Italy: +1455 cases (now 47520), +351 deaths (now 8311), +791 recoveries (now 13020) since a day ago18:08
LjLFitbin, while at the same time, Veneto has managed to keep the numbers down, and they tested much more aggressively than Lombardy, despite the central government disapproving of their methods18:08
LjLpenny_, they've already said for a couple of weeks, so18:09
penny_oh right testing....18:09
penny_it could just be more testing tho?18:09
LjLno18:09
penny_similar testing rate all along?18:10
LjLVeneto has tested more than Lombardy and found fewer positives, while Lombardy has had a rather high 25%-ish positives on their tests18:10
LjLnot all along, but while they've tested more in the past few days, they've also found a lower percentage of positives18:10
penny_i got u18:10
nixonixtesting, testing right people, and infection chain tracking makes the difference18:11
penny_well ok even if the lockdown is having a significant effect the infection rate could still be going up. maybe without the lockdown it would be going up that much more18:11
LjLnixonix, the official line is that Lombardy is just not in the condition to do that now18:11
LjLpenny_, that was not the expectation, though18:12
penny_not at all18:12
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 16:00 UTC: NHS: Two young nurses die as NHS braces for more coronavirus losses — from r/WorldNews at 16:00: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' → https://is.gd/OOTsyX18:12
LjLmaybe COVID-19 travels in the air from one apartment to the next... but that was, like, definitely not the expectation, and right now I've just seen the ISS's president repeat once again that long-lived airborne transmission is unlikely18:12
nixonixalso, that when those with flu-like symptoms - even when not confirmed sars-2 - self-quarantine, the whole household should self-quarantine (according to american infection models, this is very important)18:12
penny_maybe the (fake?) chinese numbers gave people false hope18:13
LjLwell, Korean numbers are probably not fake, and they have not done much of a lockdown, but they did track and trace aggressively18:13
penny_yes18:13
LjLi am still in favor of lockdowns, but clearly unless they do them the Wuhan way, there is still something missing18:13
FitbinI'm convinced the Chinese figures are  relatively accurate18:13
penny_italy might have just been so overwhelmed with virus that by the time the lockdown happened it was too late18:14
LjLpenny_, wouldn't the same be true for China (Hubei/Wuhan)?18:14
FitbinTotalitarian government, obedient population, large numbers of deploayble military and medical staff.  Does the trick.18:14
penny_their lockdown was stricter18:14
LjLwell, western countries are more like Italy and less like China, so they should look carefully at Italy's outcome. however, Italy's lockdown was pretty relaxed until last week18:15
LjLincidentally, Italy's numbers for today are out, even though the press conference hasn't even started yet18:16
penny_if we had started the lockdown sooner we could have afforded a less strict one18:16
LjLdoubtful. if R>1, it is, and the thing keeps spreading exponentially, albeit maybe with a lower exponent18:17
IndoAnon>Chinese figures are  relatively accurate < Mainland china is totally not accurate,  while Hongkong China  should be really accurate, and even more Republic of China18:18
Nokajipenny_: indeed, you have to go in fast and you have to go in hard - requires far less resources, too18:19
Nokajicontain18:19
linextchina was not counting people who have coronavirus with no symptoms as being infected18:19
LjLItaly's daily Civil Protection press conference is starting now at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjo5-2Cwwsw and I will take notes as usual18:20
Nokajior with co-morbidities that died18:20
sneeplinext: Yeah, I only read that like last week I think18:20
LjLTotal active positive: 85388, +2339 since yesterday18:21
penny_wut that's important linext18:21
LjL4068 are in ICU, 28741 are in hospital with symptoms, while 52572 are self-isolating at home (62%)18:21
LjL+766 fatalities18:21
LjL+1480 recoveries18:21
LjLAs of today, 61849 tests have been made, +80000 in the past couple of days18:22
LjL114 patients have been transferred from Lombardy to other places, +9 since yesterday18:22
LjL38 patients were transferred to Germany18:22
LjL16798 volunteers are working.18:22
LjLThere are 792 pre-triage tents outside hospitals, and 151 in prisons.18:23
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1696 cases (now 1064601), +49 deaths (now 56638), +19 recoveries (now 225622) since 22 minutes ago — US: +1453 cases (now 259565), +22 deaths (now 6594), +19 recoveries (now 11960) since 22 minutes ago — Pennsylvania, US: +1156 cases (now 8420), +12 deaths (now 102) since 22 minutes ago18:23
LjL11.5 million euro have been spent as of today for PPEs and ventilators from the amount donated to the Civil Protection, around 10.5 million18:23
LjLFor the time being, "phase 2" is scheduled to start on April 13, and today there was some misunderstanding of Borrelli's words, he claims, because he clearly said the measures to be adopted would be determined as things occur. He's sorry his reasoning was turned into a headline not reflecting his thoughts.18:25
LjLSomething about scams occurring and unauthorized interviews18:26
LjLSome data about ICU: on Monday a re port about 1310 ICU patients will be published on JAMA, which will show the great majority had comorbidities. 90% were put under invasive ventilation. Mortality in this sample has been around 15%, mostly between 65 and 90 years of age. Data on my particular hospital are that we've had 150 patients in ICU in the past few weeks. 63% came from ER, and others from other departments. So patients don't end up in ICU all 18:28
LjLimmediately, sometimes they are hospitalized but deteriorate until they need to be taken into ICU. Anyhow, the age group also includes 45-64 years of age. Lastly, average stay in ICU is 10 days, and often extends to 15-20 days, so the impact is not only from the severity of the disease, but also due to the long times taken for recovery.18:28
LjLQuestions now.18:29
dividediff[m]Guys! Member of parliament got back to me and wanted some sources on how masks 4 all could reduce asymptomatic spread. Anyone got a favorite scientific source?18:30
LjLQ: On "phase 2", aside from dates, it will happen sooner or later. You're telling Italians to stay home, and Italians are doing it, but they also need to be able to imagine what will happen afterwards. We know there will be a middle ground between "now" and "afterwards"... how do you imagine this transition? By steps, by geographical zones, by age groups, by activity...? Please don't tell me you're only "working on it"!18:30
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 16:14 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Matt Hancock warns people will die if social distancing is ignored over weekend — from r/WorldNews at 16:14: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' → https://is.gd/XTcPze18:30
dividediff[m]Just got of the phone with them. Need to email them a source in like the next 10mins18:30
LjLdividediff[m], i posted a few new links about masks at https://covid19.specops.network/ in their own section - ask also pepee18:30
LjLA: I will be able to provide my opinion when the scientific committee is done evaluating the situation. I really cannot afford to predict things I do not know.18:31
LjLQ: But how do YOU imagine it? You must know what you think about it.18:31
dividediff[m]Nice to hear from you again Ljl, it's been a few days! thanks18:31
FitbinOne UK source suggesting that quarantine measures may have to continue for 18 months. I'm afraid I'll be asking my MP to lobby for assisted euthanasia if that's even close to being true18:31
LjLA: Without scientific elements, I cannot say anything about it to you now.18:31
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Bill Gates funding the construction of factories for 7 different vaccines to fight coronavirus (10323 votes) | https://redd.it/fu8nwx18:31
LjL(Doctor) There is no clear and certain answer to your question until scientific evaluations are completely; for now we can only notice there is a decrease in virus transmission, and it appears we're just repeating the same things over and over, but it's clear containment measures have been useful, which has also reflected in ICU pressure; but it's hard to give a specific answer to your question.18:32
LjLQ: But you must give people some hope? It's important.18:32
LjLA: Certainly.18:32
dividediff[m]LjL: your top link is broken https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(2018:33
AimHereFitbin, lockdown for 18 months won't happen. Some sort of measures may have to remain for a long time though18:33
LjLQ: You often say experts must give the answers. We then go to the experts and they say we must go elsewhere still. We need clear and timely communication. This country has been wounded by grief and suffering, and maybe this is the place where experts should give actual numbers and answer our questions. Anyhow, do you think during "phase 2" it will be mandatory to wear masks?18:34
LjLA: I am happy to have all the experts we need on my site during these press conferences. Today we have an authoritative person from the scientific committee, but I wish there will be many other scientific committee representatives at this table.18:34
pepeeinteresting, people are making youtube videos of tests of different cloths:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcytGGAJPB018:34
pepeeusing paint or even deodorant to emulate virus particles and sneezes18:35
LjLAs to masks, I think it will be more important to increase our social distancing measures: as you see, I'm not wearing a mask, and it's not because I think it's useless, but I simply try to respect the distances instead. So, again, I cannot tell you anything about masks in the present moment, since we don't know about the evolution of things and whether it will be needed or not to wear masks. Today, whoever is able to respect the distancing doesn't need to 18:35
LjLwear them.18:35
dunnpwow NYC about to have more cases than Italy and Spain18:36
yuriwhomajor ontario canada press conf right now: https://www.cbc.ca/news18:37
LjLQ: Back to the question of adequate protection for healthcare workers, since hospitals are the place with the most risks... you told us how 6000 masks from China were delivered to doctors but turned out not to be adequate as they weren't FFP2. I'd like to know how other deliveries are going, as there have been several rumors on subpar masks, and someone in Hong Kong says all masks being made in China are not adequate. Another thing, too many PPEs get to 18:37
LjLdoctors without being certified, and they don't know whether or not to use them. What's your answer to them?18:37
LjLA: As I said before, there was a logistics problem with the masks that were delivered the other day. We deliver masks to healthcare workers but also to the public, and just yesterday we distributed nearly 5 million masks. In the next few days, we'll be sending replacements for those masks which were not adequate. We control the quality of masks, together with the Red Cross. I am convinced we won't have future difficulties.18:38
BrainstormUpdates for World: +3385 cases (now 1067986), +109 deaths (now 56747), +407 recoveries (now 226029) since 19 minutes ago — Turkey: +2786 cases (now 20921), +69 deaths (now 425), +69 recoveries (now 484) since 19 minutes ago — Canada: +464 cases (now 11747) since 2 hours ago18:38
LjLAs to PPE use in general, we all verify them, and unlike that batch of masks, I'm not aware of any critical issues with them.18:38
LjL(Doctor) We optimize resource use in hospital depending on the type of thing the personnel must be doing: if I need to be in the COVID ward but not visit patients, I will wear a mask; but if I have to make a procedure like intubation, then I need further protection. The WHO itself has a very clear table indicating how to use the various PPEs. Knowing how problematic the lack of these resources can be, we do try to optimize, and for example, people tend to 18:40
LjLkeep wearing PPEs throughout their turn, even though this is fatiguing.18:40
pepeeand apparently spray paint is better for testing than paint.. oddly enough, they give different results18:40
LjLQ: We are witnessing an apparent decrease in ICU use, but this does not match the number of new infections. So are we doing more tests, finding more asymptomatic cases, or relatives of sick people who are less critical...?18:40
LjLA: It's not easy to give you a very certain answer. You must consider the peak has not ended yet, and while there is a slight decreasing trend, it's the fruit of what we did during the past three weeks... so it's hard to evaluate new cases.18:41
pepee%title https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293012508_Particle_Sizes_of_Aerosols_Produced_by_Nine_Indoor_Perfumes_and_Deodorants18:41
Brainstormpepee: From www.researchgate.net: (PDF) Particle Sizes of Aerosols Produced by Nine Indoor Perfumes and Deodorants18:41
LjLQ: Another question about ICU, and what stage are experimentations on new treatments at? And could these treatments reduce the need to use ICU beds, allowing people to be treated in normal hospital beds?18:42
LjLA: The answer is dual: first, there is not currently a scientifically proven therapy, and there are, both at an Italian level through AIFA and internationally, a set of very serious studies ongoing. If one of these therapies turned out to be useful to prevent ICU access, that's not something we can say now, but the reasoning is sound that it could happen.18:43
aradeshofficial on tv now saying, "there is no evidence that general wearing of face mask by the general populace reduces the spread of a pandemic"18:43
LjLaradesh, note it for later, when they'll be saying the opposite18:43
NokajiGeezer from UK govt just said the following (approx)on live tv: No evidence that general wearing by the public (of face masks) that is well, affects the spread across our society. We do not recommend face masks.18:44
LjLQ: I think you must "unify" communication. During the past week, we had to listen to Dr Arcuri at noon, then Prof. Brusaferri, then again to your press conference at 18. I won't even ask you about the deceased in immigrant camps etc because no one knows the answer. Do you think you can discuss with the Minister the addition to the committee of other professional figures? A psychologist, a statistician...18:44
LjLA: The way it's been created, the scientific committee can be integrated with new professional roles. Psychologically, our volunteers are working on psychological issues and they have psychologists, and I will try to request further information.18:45
LjLFollow up: I would like to add, from the frontline, which I belong to, that hospitals highly value people like psychologists, not only to provide support to people who are sick, but also for the personnel themselves. In our "critical area" in particular, the stress we are subjected to is very strong. Having support available helps.18:46
aradeshNokaji: yup. he said it is the same advice as the WHO18:46
Nokajiaradesh: well, both can go rot18:47
aradeshwhy do they keep calling their plan to increase their testing capacity as a "5 pillar plan" ? have they all converted to islam or something?18:47
dividediff[m]In case anyone is interested, gfs sore throat resolved like a while ago, she suggested just dehydration.18:47
Nokaji5 is an occult number of protection18:47
Nokaji5, 55, 55518:47
LjLQ: Since this crisis began, there have been a continuing conflict between the central government and individual regions. So I'd like to ask, first, I get at this is a technical question and not political, but do you think there should be more centralization? Secondly, do you wish new regional ordnances will be in line with the central government's stance, especially during "phase 2" where there may be more localized clusters?18:47
Nokajipillars have obvious symbolism, too18:48
dividediff[m]aradesh: "why do they keep calling their plan to increase their testing capacity as a "5 pillar plan" ? have they all converted to islam or something?" - Aradesh 2020 jajaja18:48
LjLA: I think I can answer both questions with our intervention model in the Civil Protection. The matter is preeminently regional, but when there is a national emergency, we are all united in managing it under Civil Protection handling. Since this is a health emergency, it has been handled differently from disasters where the Civil Protection intervenes. When I had a meeting with Lombardy's government, I said the Civil Protection was to work next to the 18:49
LjLregional healthcare system. Our capabilities are tested, and in full synergy for teamwork.18:49
aradeshNokaji: well there are the "5 pillars of islam"18:49
LjLAbout regional laws, we wish to avoid dissonant decisions; it's my wish but also a technical and common sense wish.18:49
LjLWe have concluded. Good evening.18:49
LjL--- end18:49
Nokajiaradesh: fair comment18:49
dividediff[m]remember to sanitize your phones when you return from an outing folks, pce18:50
Nokajiit is a coinkydink,indeed18:50
NokajiI spray IPA18:50
NokajiThe Five Pillars of Islam are some basic acts in Islam, considered mandatory by believers, and are the foundation of Muslim life. They are summarized in the famous hadith of Gabriel. The Sunni and Shia agree on the essential details for the performance and practice of these acts, but the Shia do not refer to them by the same name. They make up Muslim life, prayer, concern for the needy, self-purification, and the pilgrimage, if one is able.18:52
Nokajithere is a correlation18:53
ubLIXbetween what and what?18:53
Nokajiislam's five pillars and UK's, such as in how this is overarching governance of how we must conduct all aspets of ur lifes, (religiously even)18:54
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 16:48 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans so far, Dr. Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 16:48: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/JTDGR118:54
ubLIXs/correlation/coincidence/18:55
Nokajia coinciding correlation18:56
ubLIXcoincidentally both notions have landed on a plausible number for the capacity of human working memory18:57
jacklswi wonder how is boris johnson now18:59
jacklswprince charles has recovered18:59
Nokajihigh temp still18:59
NokajiFitbin: are you suggesting nobody in govt has ever heard of islam?19:00
Nokajicharlie appears to have re-continued his self-isolation including back to putting his own toothpaste on his brush19:01
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 17:04 UTC: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo says state saw its biggest single-day increase in coronavirus deaths on Thursday — from r/WorldNews at 17:04: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/OV4lRw19:07
ketasNokaji: hahaha19:08
ketasNokaji: but still has hired asswiper?19:08
BrainstormUpdates for World: +5588 cases (now 1073574), +187 deaths (now 56934), +23 recoveries (now 226052) since 35 minutes ago — US: +4409 cases (now 264159), +111 deaths (now 6714), +11 recoveries (now 11983) since 35 minutes ago — New Jersey, US: +4305 cases (now 29895), +109 deaths (now 646) since an hour ago19:08
Nokajiketas: groom of the stool? - quite possibly19:09
ketasstoolgroomer!19:09
LjLBrainstorm just keeps churning out big updates for the US. bit scary.19:09
LjLso far, more than 25000 new cases in the US today I reckon, compared to the roughly 240k offloop has for yesterday...? yikes19:10
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 17:06 UTC: (news): 'The Hot Zone' author warns the next pandemic could 'balloon faster' than the coronavirus — from r/WorldNews at 17:06: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/eWX3rG19:13
python476https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1DK_1DthyM19:15
python476painting copper solution on mask19:15
python476copper being said to also be antiviral to a point19:15
LjLpython476, and safe to inhale?19:16
Nokajias  is brass r silver19:16
Nokajior*19:16
python476LjL: free copper supplements19:16
python476no idea if those would leave the fiber or not19:16
python476feel free to try and report #cdc19:16
LjLpython476, ingestion is not inhalation though, ask all those people who died from inhaling vit. E from their vapes19:17
python476true19:17
FitbinMeh. Seriously considering just going out and licking door knobs. I mean, I'm probably going to get iut at some point anyway. Might as well get it over with.19:18
ketashah19:18
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 17:12 UTC: (news): WHO says countries that rush to lift coronavirus containment risk 'more severe and prolonged' damage to economy — from r/WorldNews at 17:12: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/u5QNxh19:19
ketasit might hurt like losing virginity19:19
LjLFitbin, i think you're a bit late for that. if you wanted to get it when hospitals were not under pressure, that was... several weeks ago. i suspect you might do better waiting and hoping there's some decent treatment before you get it...19:19
Nokajipython476: I'd be concerned that there could be uninteded consequences, plus iirc the mask he uses is below the standard recommended for covid protection19:19
python476Nokaji: about that19:20
python476wouldn't subpar masks help shields part of aerosols ?19:21
python476bigger droplets > 1micron19:21
python476even if the virus itself could fit through these masks19:21
LjLpython476, if you ask the WHO, no [citation needed]. if you ask me, yes [citation not needed because i'm here saying it]19:21
Nokajipython476: they could indeed fall into the 'better than nothing' camp (pre-modification)19:21
ketasFitbin: i think you actually do it anyway... if you grab knob and then put hand around mouth or nose for some reason, you already got whatever was on that19:21
Nokajiit's still a direct barrier19:21
FitbinIf you're talking about the healthcare environment, at least part of the problem is litigation.19:22
LjLketas, not quite the same in terms of how much virus you get... which may matter a lot19:22
pale_moon22k[m]Has anyone here any papers on COVID-19 effect on atheletes? Even personal experiences would be fine19:22
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1374 cases (now 1074948), +72 deaths (now 57006), +9 recoveries (now 226061) since 19 minutes ago — US: +1347 cases (now 265506), +72 deaths (now 6786) since 19 minutes ago — Louisiana, US: +1147 cases (now 10297), +60 deaths (now 370) since an hour ago19:23
jacklswWHO last year: video games are bad for your health19:24
jacklswWHO 2020: video games are good for your health in quarantine19:24
jacklsw:D19:24
python476Nokaji: LjL: dank us19:26
FitbinIt actually makes sense in context though.19:26
LjLpython476, anyway i've added a "Masks" section to my list of things nobody reads19:26
LjLit is rather minimal for now, but it has some things19:26
ketasLjL: maybe, but exposure and transfer from touch surfaces to phone to clothing to wallet to food package to food to fingers to mouth seems quite much... no?19:26
ketasnever read about that actually19:27
NokajiLjL: You might wann check out: https://www.n95decon.org/ - A scientific consortium for data-driven study of N95 decontamination19:27
LjLketas, probabilistically unlikely, but if we want to minimize probabilities then we'd want to minimize those behaviors anyway, since things add up19:27
pale_moon22k[m]Anyone here living semi off grid?19:28
LjLNokaji, cool, i'll add that to my list19:28
ketasLjL: i wish it would be possibls to see it with eyes19:28
LjLthat's a bit much to ask :P19:28
ketasbut common sense says that it adds up fast19:29
ketasas seen on tv - spreads well despite measures19:30
aradeshi wonder what the chance would be of getting infected, if you swallowed a single covid-19 virus?19:30
ThomCat[m]LjL: Is BrainstormBot proprietary or do you have a clone-able git repo somewhere?19:30
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Remains of 90 million-year-old rainforest discovered under Antarctic ice (10004 votes) | https://redd.it/ftr0gr19:32
ketasaradesh: no, it will die in loneliness and depression, it doesn't like social distancing19:32
ketas:P19:32
LjLThomCat[m], semi-proprietary, because some of my crappy modules are quite intertwined together, and also i don't really do git. but you can get the source to the part that does COVID stuff19:33
LjL%source covid19:33
BrainstormLjL, source code for module 'covid' can be found at https://paste.ee/p/rmkk719:33
ketaspaste.ee wtf19:34
ThomCat[m]Beautiful, thanks!19:34
LjLpython476, also i've just been pointed to https://www.n95decon.org/ (and added it, but the bot won't report it because i restarted it) which seems relevant if you're meddling with masks19:35
AtqueDoes recovering from COVID-19 confer long lasting immunity?19:41
pynaunknown19:42
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 17:39 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 17:39: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/JTDGR119:43
LjLAtque, it does seem to last a certain amount of time in most people. whether it lasts "long", as in, for a large portion of your life, will probably not be fully known until that amount of time has passed...19:45
BrainstormNew from r/Italy Live* at 17:45 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Stasera, incontro Conte con le regioni — from r/WorldNews at 17:45: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/KmNom719:47
BruntLIVEWith the CornonaVIrus we are paying the price for impeaching Trump and not showing unconditional love to him. Our deaths are in vain. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/read-trumps-letter-blaming-coronavirus-in-ny-on-impeachment.html19:50
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 17:47 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 17:47: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/JTDGR119:51
BrainstormNew from BBC Health at 17:51 UTC: Coronavirus: Staying home this weekend 'not a request', UK told: People are told to stay at home this weekend in honour of two nurses who died with coronavirus. — from r/WorldNews at 17:51: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/yrb9Db19:55
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 17:55 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 17:55: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/JTDGR119:59
Jigsy>Staying home this weekend 'not a request'20:00
JigsySo, what, we're not allowed to buy food on Saturday and Sunday now?20:00
oxalislearn to bake20:01
JigsyWhat if I need ingredients, oxalis?20:01
oxalisget them today20:02
AimHereGood luck getting strong bread flour20:02
JigsyI have coeliac disease, so...20:03
FitbinSort of considering packing a bag and going "innawoods" for a week or so.20:07
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 18:04 UTC: Coronavirus pandemic economic fallout 'way worse than the global financial crisis,' IMF chief says: "Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill," said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, during a press conference on the pandemic. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/FNh6MV20:07
BrainstormUpdates for World: +5688 cases (now 1080646), +1123 deaths (now 58129), +1606 recoveries (now 227668) since 45 minutes ago — France: +5233 cases (now 64338), +1120 deaths (now 6507), +1580 recoveries (now 14008) since 45 minutes ago — United Arab Emirates: +240 cases (now 1264), +1 deaths (now 9), +12 recoveries (now 108) since 45 minutes ago20:08
rajrajrajbut its aaaaaaaaaaaaaall right, sometimes you gotta be strong20:14
LjLpython476, any idea what's going on with France? huge death spike yesterday, which was attributed to nursing homes reporting data, but worse spike today20:20
aldwichJigsy: the way the BBC wrote the article, I think we're still allowed for essential food shopping, but it's more of an appeal not to take liberties when going for daily walk/exercise, to get carried away and then suddnely finding oneself doing a picnic in the local park with a glass of rose ...20:21
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network * at 18:15 UTC: ljl-covid: Add Models section with IHME and Ontario — from r/WorldNews at 18:15: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/TMO4Cj20:21
LjLtinwhiskers, there seems to be a problem with the graphs... apart from the fact many are not updated with today's data despite the data being on the CSV, right now if i select New York, i see 20817 deaths in a very scary graph, but the real data are20:24
LjL%cases NY20:24
BrainstormLjL: In New York, US, there are 102863 cases, 2935 deaths (2.9% of cases), 0 recoveries as of 18 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.20:24
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 18:21 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Airlines ordered to give customers refunds, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 18:21: World leaders have failed to identify a single coronavirus antibody test which is accurate enough for use → https://is.gd/JTDGR120:28
aradeshwoah... almost 3000 deaths in new york alone20:28
DocScrutinizer05when you look at this obvious ~7 sine pattern in https://corona.rki.de/, is this representing a pattern in behavior of the recorded subjects - like "infection during work time at office, no infections on weekend"  - or do you think it's a meaningless "artifact" from procedures in health care?20:28
LjLshould be interesting to compare weekly patterns in case counts in countries where non-essential work is still allowed vs the ones where it isn't20:32
DocScrutinizer05yes, also countries where work is done on different weekdays, like free day = friday or saturday20:33
oribamore plots: http://www.dkriesel.com/corona20:34
DocScrutinizer05vs the western free day = sunday20:34
generamore like on Sunday the Gesundheitsamt doesnt collect and send reports to rki20:35
DocScrutinizer05genera: but the RKI sorts reports to the day they been registered, not the day they arrive - see yellow bars20:36
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1179 cases (now 1081825), +18 deaths (now 58147), +51 recoveries (now 227719) since 33 minutes ago — US: +753 cases (now 266259), +17 deaths (now 6803) since 33 minutes ago — Ohio, US: +410 cases (now 3312), +10 deaths (now 91) since 33 minutes ago20:37
rajrajrajuna rosa20:37
DocScrutinizer05the minima are on err... Mondays20:37
DocScrutinizer05if it was for officials not working on weekends you'd expect the minima on weekends then20:38
DocScrutinizer05unless there's an unknown factor introducing delay20:39
Nokajiso, ... if this thing did come from bats - does this mean it can remain in cooked food AND infect us via our intestinal gut?20:40
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 18:35 UTC: Coronavirus pandemic economic fallout 'way worse than the global financial crisis,' IMF chief says: "Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill," said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, during a press conference on the pandemic. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/FNh6MV20:40
Nokajiif I had a third Q, it would be: Who the heck eats bat without first gutting the thing?20:43
AimHereNokaji, Ozzy Osbourne?20:44
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 18:43 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Airlines ordered to give customers refunds, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 18:43: World leaders have failed to identify a single coronavirus antibody test which is accurate enough for use → https://is.gd/JTDGR120:46
NokajiAimHere: true that ... possibly20:47
Nokajip'haps Bojo is not fairing so well bcz he's carrying a few extra lbs20:49
Nokajihe's not looking well, apparently20:49
AimHereIt would be a funny way to go for him20:50
AimHerehttps://preview.redd.it/fvm298owemq41.jpg?width=768&auto=webp&s=4416858afd16295bdc5b24118324530fcde30b16 <- Coronavirus-related kidnapping in Edinburgh20:51
xrogaanThe US as a perfect exponential line. The best line.20:56
AimHereDeaths is; cases is slightly subexponential20:56
LjLNokaji, i don't believe your implied assumptions are though to be correct. it "comes from" bat in that it's similar enough to a bat virus to make that most likely, but an intermediate host is believed to have been responsible, not a bat. also, it almost certainly didn't come from cooked food, but interaction with live animals or raw meat.20:57
NokajiLjL: I'm not saying it came from bat ... my Q was an "if", I'm saying others say it came from bat, with lots of references to bat soup but I appreciate your response nonetheless20:59
Nokajiif that were the case, it would raise questions of transmission paths and susceptibility to high temps21:00
IronYOntario released its "Dire and sobering death predictions, with mitigation included"21:01
DocScrutinizer05Nokaji: the virus supposed to decay at 80°C or less. So the bat has to be medium rare too21:01
IronY0.1 to 1.0% of the population21:01
IronYis their "worst case scenario"21:01
NokajiDocScrutinizer05: yup, I heard 59C ... or on a face mask cooked at 70C21:01
DocScrutinizer05that's why I said 80°21:01
LjLnalkri, well, bat soup isn't even a Chinese food, and a lot of claims that it came from people eating bats or bat soup were based on videos that have been flatly debunked21:01
LjLvideos/images21:02
Nokaji70C was for half hour21:02
NokajiLjL: fair enough ... they didn't seem to do more than pick at the wings in those vids21:02
LjLIronY, 1% mortality rate, on the whole population?21:02
IronYLjL: year there upper bounds is 100,000 on a 14.96 million people population21:03
nalkriLjL: I don't think I said anything about bats or soup21:03
IronYlower bounds being 300021:03
IronYseems a bit optimistic21:03
IronYsorruy 15,000 upper bounds21:03
IronYNokaji: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.551957521:04
IronYoops lgl: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.551957521:04
IronYPopulation of ontario as of 2019: 14.57 million21:04
IronY" COVID-19 could kill 3,000 to 15,000 people in the province over the course of the pandemic, the ramifications of which could last up to two years.21:04
DocScrutinizer05>>0.1 to 1.0% of the population<< sounds like the bitter truth21:04
IronYDocScrutinizer05: My argument is that seems fairly low for a upper bounds21:05
LjLah yeah, it's the model i added to https://covid19.specops.network/#models a short while ago21:05
IronYoh sweet ur tracking models21:05
IronY+121:05
LjLIronY, the 100k is the prediction if no interventions are made21:05
LjLwell i just started21:05
IronYLjL: Quite a nice bit of information for just starting, good job21:06
DocScrutinizer05LjL: >>Robert Koch-Institut's COVID-19-Dashboard for Germany<< is https://corona.rki.de, the garbled URL is to testify their fubar website/web management21:08
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1766 cases (now 1083746), +11 deaths (now 58168) since 19 minutes ago — Germany: +1126 cases (now 90964), +4 deaths (now 1234) since 19 minutes ago — Canada: +628 cases (now 12375), +5 deaths (now 178) since 19 minutes ago21:08
DocScrutinizer05I just an hour ago looked it up since I felt it sucked21:08
BobCatanagram for "corona virus" is "carnivorous"21:08
BobCatalso racoon virus21:08
Nokajiindeed ... peta are already on to that one21:09
IronYRacoon virus, pepsi can, bottle cap, racoon city, half life 3 confirmed?21:09
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 19:00 UTC: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo says state saw its biggest single-day increase in coronavirus deaths on Thursday — from r/WorldNews at 19:00: WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus → https://is.gd/OV4lRw21:09
BobCatMy friends who worked at valve said half life 3 was being worked on by unicorns21:09
DocScrutinizer05LjL: I don't know if a similar URL mess applies to https://sites.google.com/view/covid19-intel/europe/germany21:11
BobCatGabe kept complaining no one was making hl3 "Why is no one doiong that, I could make a billion dollars"21:11
DocScrutinizer05LjL: ^^^ last one is quite useful afaict21:13
tinwhiskersLjL: thanks. fixed. Since adding in the new csv data source for the states I've just been using fixed column numbers for the data and the format changed so it broke. I'll get around to using column names shortly.21:14
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network * at 19:14 UTC: ljl-covid: Change RKI to official URL — from r/WorldNews at 19:14: WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus → https://is.gd/WhNLKj21:18
NokajiBrainstorm: I heard that if you look at corona patients in a hospital, there are just as many young ppl as old - can't confirm that myself and it could be from a sample of just one hospital21:22
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 19:31 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Field hospitals set up around the world, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 19:31: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/JTDGR121:34
TimvdeNokaji: Brainstorm is a bot21:39
NokajiTimvde: it crossed my mind, was looking to see if someone had called it .. thx for the clarif.21:40
NokajiI'm typing with one hand and rescuing a burning plane with the other, so my attention isn't always 100%21:41
tinwhiskersyeah, I find the same thing when rescuing a burning plane21:42
tinwhiskerso.O21:42
BobCatgamers...21:43
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Trump orders medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada (10184 votes) | https://redd.it/fu95vz21:50
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica at 19:45 UTC: Features: Should you wear a face mask? Here’s all the data we have — from r/WorldNews at 19:45: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/2zo5mi21:50
phantomcircuitNokaji, there are generally many more young people in the world, so 50/50 means it's vastly more dangerous for elderly people21:52
BrainstormUpdates for World: +4230 cases (now 1087976), +160 deaths (now 58328), +254 recoveries (now 227989) since 54 minutes ago — US: +3717 cases (now 269996), +121 deaths (now 6924), +32 recoveries (now 12015) since 54 minutes ago — Michigan, US: +1953 cases (now 12744), +62 deaths (now 479) since 54 minutes ago21:54
Nokajiphantomcircuit: quite possibly but it speaks to the claim that young ppl are somehow immune21:57
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 19:54 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: US coronavirus live: Pelosi calls for another stimulus bill amid soaring job losses — from r/WorldNews at 19:54: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/mjLxxn21:58
PiciI can only speak for my hospital (in NJ), but the biggest group of positive patients are in the 50-80 age range21:59
ubLIXofc that group is at the end of the spectrum most likely to take the infection and convert it into a need for hospitalisation22:01
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 20:05 UTC: Covid-19: De Blasio urges US enlistment program for doctors and nurses: Mayor calls for medics to be moved to places in greatest need New York City prepares for surge in coronavirus cases New York City mayor Bill de Blasio has called for a national enlistment program for doctors and nurses to handle an expected surge [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/jYoYhH22:15
aradeshouch... over 1000 again in france22:18
AcheronUS suffers worst daily death toll in the world at nearly 1,20022:19
Acheronand here its just getting started22:19
nixonixthe older they are, the more previous medical conditions. but whats the share of younger age groups? (in that hospital) and for all patients, and ICU22:19
Acheronhttps://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/coronavirus-signal-capitalism-200330092216678.html22:20
eckssweden has kind of sobering numbers from the ICU22:21
ecksmedian age 6222:22
Shock!cases sweden22:22
Acheronmost counties/states are keeping the numbers anonymous so its hard to tell exactly how each age group 20-30, 30-40, 40-50 and so on are responding22:23
Acheronthe numbers are quite fuzzy, especially here in the US22:23
CovBotIn Sweden there have been a total of 6,131 cases as of 2020-04-03 20:19:00 UTC. Of these 5,568 (90.8%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 205 (3.3%) have definitely recovered and 358 (5.8%) have died.22:23
Guest80520https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/22:24
PiciAcheron: here in the US we just got requests from the federal government to submit detailed data on our patients22:24
AcheronGuest80520, right but that does not show any age breakdown22:25
Piciat my hospital we've been spending a lot of time providing data for internal use, and haven't even gotten to the external report requests22:25
Acheronand testing is still hard to come by22:26
Piciits gotten better22:26
Acheronif more people were tested, the mortality rate would drop22:26
Picibut we still don't test people who aren't showing symptoms22:26
Acheronthose are the main spreaders here, younger people with no symptoms22:27
eckssame in finland, we are apparently not even maxing capacity...22:27
Shock%cases netherlands22:27
BrainstormShock: In all areas, Netherlands, there are 15723 cases, 1487 deaths (9.5% of cases), 250 recoveries as of 8 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data.22:27
LjLthere are clues that asymptomatic people may be around 50%. make it even 100% for margin... the death rates are still unsettling22:27
NokajiAcheron: USA doesn't look quite so bad if you make a direct comparison against europe as a whole22:27
ecksUSA is well on its way22:28
Nokajinixonix: iirc, 80% of deaths 'was' over 60's22:28
Shockwhere's the bot that also gave info on case fatality rate?22:28
Picias a whole maybe... but normalized by population only Spain has a higher infection count22:28
Acheronand it hasn't yet gotten into areas where a lot of people don't have health insurance, its there but wait a couple more weaks22:28
Acheronweeks22:28
Pici(well italy too, but not at the same number of days in)22:28
NokajiAcheron: this has a breakdown for likelihood of death based upon age - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus22:29
AcheronUS Deaths 6,898 ↑ 20% (+1132 past 24hr)22:29
LjLNokaji, take https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US;EU and align it to 100 cases, as is often done (although i personally have some perplexities over the arbitrary alignment). if we take this as a reasonable method of comparison, deaths in the US are tracking the ones in the EU, while cases are rising faster (possibly due to wider testing...? doubtful somehow)22:29
LjLsam Pici22:30
LjLsame*22:30
LjLnot calling you Sam22:30
Nokajididn't usa say any corona treatment would be free, regardless22:30
PiciNokaji: the president may have said that, but he didn't actually mean it.22:31
Acheron usa say any corona treatment would be free, regardless  NO WAY22:31
PiciLjL: I know :P22:31
Acheronno way its happening here22:31
CoronaBot/r/worldnews: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' (10081 votes) | https://redd.it/fua4yw22:32
NokajiLjL: U govt aligned at 50 in their speech earlier today .... interesting comparison nonetheless, tells a whole 'nuther story -thx22:33
LjLNokaji, yes, i do have to admit if you change the alignment point things don't quite look the same22:33
NokajiUK govt**22:33
Picianyway, I'm supposed to be figuring out how many hours I spent working on COVID-19 related stuff this week, and I don't think hanging out in here counts.22:34
LjLNokaji, https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ (or the "Growth trajectory" graph at https://covidly.com/graph) show a different kind of comparison that doesn't need an arbitrary alignment point22:35
LjLi don't know of a website that provides that graph for the EU as a whole though22:35
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1886 cases (now 1090147), +34 deaths (now 58486) since 17 minutes ago — US: +1090 cases (now 271152), +19 deaths (now 6946) since 17 minutes ago — Connecticut, US: +1090 cases (now 4914), +19 deaths (now 131) since 17 minutes ago22:36
LjLPici, yes can you make this figure above stop growing by 1000 every ten minutes or so please?22:36
nixonixPici: did they look similar to this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says22:36
NokajiI guess they need to align at a bigger enough number to remove any random factors but then if the result keeps changinf as the alignment changes, I guess we are down to different modalities based on perceived risk/situation and that these keep changing every revision ... I can see how that might be problematic, maybe more useful inbetween each revision22:36
Nokajinot sure that even made any sense but good luck with interpreting it :)22:37
PiciNokaji: I don't have the in front of me to investigate that.  Age is the easiest thing to pull out of the data that I have on hand.22:37
Nokajii.o.w. regardless of alignment number,the curve will change every time they change their M.O.22:37
CoronaBot04/r/worldnews: 3M refused Trump’s demand to divert 10 million N95 masks produced in Singapore to the US. The masks are produced in Singapore and exported to countries in Asia. (11209 votes) | https://redd.it/fubxup22:38
NokajiPici: By 'your' hospital, did you mean you are staff?22:38
PiciNokaji: I work in IT22:39
Nokajiokay, I'll assume not hospital IT then22:39
PiciBut this past week I've been partly responsibe for coming up for the COVID-19 reports for our internal infection control team. 22:39
NokajiI don't recall anyone saying they are hospital staff in any chat room, now I think about it22:39
Nokajioh ... right22:40
Nokajior supermarket staff, for that matter22:40
Nokajior any shop staff22:41
KpaHucTTaPici I think every single person here on irc works in IT.22:41
ecksthankfully not22:41
tinwhiskersLjL: I don't think there is any reason to align to 100. You should adjust that number until you get the best alignment. 100 is often not the best number, particularly for large countries.22:41
tinwhiskersthat's why you can set it after all22:41
LjLhospital workers have most definitely been here. they may not necessarily want to advertise their status as such22:41
PiciKpaHucTTa, Nokaji: I mean that I work for a hospital's IT department. 22:42
NokajiPici: Yes, that dawned on me when you described your project22:42
LjLtinwhiskers, yeah but if i set it differently i can seem to get a different alignment, as in, a different story being told. so while that type of graph is widely used i'm not sure how really meaningful it is22:42
ecksi don't work in a hospital but i do hang around a hospital a lot22:42
tinwhiskersLjL: agreed22:42
LjLtinwhiskers, to be fair even if i'm right about that, it's the existence of your site and the fact you made it adjustable that made me realize it...22:43
LjLPici, may you never drop your tables or null your pointers22:43
tinwhiskersIf nothing else, adjusting the number you align at tells you how sensitive that is to change the story it tells. For many countries, adjusting that doesn't change the story so you can take it with a little less salt.22:46
tinwhiskers* for many comparisons22:46
term99%data us22:46
Brainstormterm99: In all areas, US, there are 271152 cases, 6946 deaths (2.6% of cases), 12015 recoveries as of 16 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.22:46
tinwhiskersI find a number more like 500 is better than 100 because things happen so slowly around 10022:47
oribaLjL: did you know the Italy dashboard? Has some details, you likely will not find so easy: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/4f74fc222b7041cd9cc3c52e62af1b8c22:48
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 20:45 UTC: US airlines must apply soon for coronavirus relief grants — then comes the hard part: U.S. airline executives face a test to see which sacrifices they are willing to make in exchange for federal aid that would allow them to continue paying their employees during the coronavirus pandemic. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/KeEStM22:50
LjLoriba, actually, i did... and didn't... it *is* listed at https://covid19.specops.network/ but i guess i hadn't looked at it enough before to notice it has ICU admissions and hospital vs self-isolation. i need to check those numbers though... i thought ICU was higher than 3.4%, although i know it's been going down22:50
oribamaybe they added the data later. RKI also has very local data now, which they did not had before.22:51
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1462 cases (now 1091609), +42 deaths (now 58528) since 21 minutes ago — US: +1462 cases (now 272614), +42 deaths (now 6988) since 21 minutes ago — Massachusetts, US: +1436 cases (now 10402), +38 deaths (now 192) since 21 minutes ago22:51
LjLoriba, Il Sole 24 Ore remains the best source for Italy, though. it's different because it's much less of a map, but the numbers are the most detailed you can get unless you hunt the websites of single municipalities22:53
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews Live* at 20:48 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Notes on the worst outbreaks at various levels, as reflected in the NYT trackers. — from r/WorldNews at 20:48: Sailors cheer for aircraft carrier commander who was removed after issuing coronavirus warning → https://is.gd/7HBxM022:54
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network * at 20:58 UTC: ljl-covid: Fix spelling of Il Sole 24 Ore — from r/WorldNews at 20:58: Sailors cheer for aircraft carrier commander who was removed after issuing coronavirus warning → https://is.gd/P6UIx123:03
Xeon3D%data Portugal23:03
BrainstormXeon3D: In all areas, Portugal, there are 9886 cases, 246 deaths (2.5% of cases), 68 recoveries as of 15 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Portugal for time series data.23:03
NokajiNEWS: St Johns Ambulance UK warns of likely collapse if no help rec'd - is costing it £1.5M a week to fight the corona23:05
LjL%data Romania23:11
BrainstormLjL: In all areas, Romania, there are 3183 cases, 133 deaths (4.2% of cases), 283 recoveries as of 8 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Romania for time series data.23:11
LjLan article about Romania says its medical workers are very disproportionately affected23:11
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:13 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Lydia Nusbaum su Twitter: "BREAKING: @GovernorKayIvey mandates a stay-at-home order for the entire state." — from r/WorldNews at 21:13: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/h4t0eu23:16
python476simulations of microdroplets in Japan https://youtu.be/H2azcn7MqOU?t=15123:16
stinkpothi LjL 23:16
python476based on the potential non big-droplet based infection23:16
stinkpotromania has had a worsening healthcare system for sometime now ljl23:17
stinkpoti'm not too sure of the details but i remember reading a lengthy article about it23:17
LjLyes23:17
synaps3%data serbia23:18
Brainstormsynaps3: In all areas, Serbia, there are 1476 cases, 39 deaths (2.6% of cases), 54 recoveries as of 15 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Serbia for time series data.23:18
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:15 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Updates from the NYT tracker for death trajectories. — from r/WorldNews at 21:15: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/uBuR0n23:20
BrainstormUpdates for World: +2046 cases (now 1093655), +218 deaths (now 58746), +33 recoveries (now 228038) since 33 minutes ago — Spain: +1489 cases (now 119199), +189 deaths (now 11198) since 33 minutes ago — Brazil: +795 cases (now 9056), +15 deaths (now 359) since an hour ago23:21
Akash[m]%data India23:21
BrainstormAkash[m]: In all areas, India, there are 2567 cases, 72 deaths (2.8% of cases), 192 recoveries as of 2 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data.23:21
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 21:19 UTC: (news): More than 1 million people tested for coronavirus in US, but access varies from state to state — from r/WorldNews at 21:19: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/cPjgSs23:24
ubLIXmight find some interest here; hand waving description: project for network theoretic approach to drug design via viral-host protein mapping: https://covid.barabasilab.com/23:27
LjLubLIX, "Interestingly, we also predict that the virus may invade multiple brain tissues, which may help explain to the loss of taste and smell in infected individuals." eeek :(23:30
tinwhiskerso.O23:31
tinwhiskersVideo showing how much a mask stops an infected person spreading droplets: https://twitter.com/DrJonnys/status/124574448854853222423:32
CoJaBoLjL: Isn't that also true of the flu tho?23:32
BrainstormNew from The Guardian at 21:25 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Italy records 766 more deaths but infection rate continues to slow — from r/WorldNews at 21:25: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/rMZtOW23:33
LjLCoJaBo, the flu gets into the brain?23:33
CoJaBoLjL: Not AFAIK, but it still results in "the loss of taste and smell in infected individuals"23:33
CoJaBoSo trying to claim that based on that seems weak :P23:33
tinwhiskersCoJaBo: you do lose some sense of taste due to being congested (smell is a big part of taste). You sure it's not just that?23:34
LjLCoJaBo, well they're not predicting brain damage *based* on the loss of taste and smell; they are predicting it with their own methods, and they *suggest* it may explain that. there are other papers that suggest CNS involvement, anyway.23:34
Nokajismell does recover in some if not all cases23:36
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health at 21:34 UTC: Watch live: Coronavirus task force holds briefing after Pelosi calls for more spending: Members of the coronavirus task force hold a press briefing Friday hours after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for another bill expanding on the $2 trillion package Congress passed last week. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/KvhQwJ23:37
stinkpotthe loss of smell and taste is an ultra-common symptom of 'colds' going back hundreds of years23:37
bin_bashyeah i was about to ay23:39
bin_bashsay**23:39
lf94lol23:39
Nokajianosmia23:39
bin_bashthat happens with any URI23:39
ubLIXLjL: my gloss was that it was academic research highly removed from observational evidence; not at all yet appropriate to take it as justification for fearing the degree of CNS invasion its suggestions are consistent with23:39
tinwhiskersThe flu can damage your sense of smell. Fortunately, this is usually not permanent, though it may take it a while to return. Often, whether or not you regain your sense of smell depends upon the underlying cause. (first link) still reading23:39
Nokajiit can happen as an only symptom23:40
ubLIXalthough, i have bookmarked that page23:40
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network * at 21:38 UTC: ljl-covid: Add study about taste/olfactory alterations — from r/WorldNews at 21:38: Nikki Haley accuses WHO of taking 'China's word' on coronavirus transmission → https://is.gd/Uiwpt123:41
oribaFraunhofer.de:  germany: https://gisweb.iao.fraunhofer.de/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/7bdce1b92fbd4a79ab45e3d581a7ebc423:41
oribaFraunhofer.de:  europe: https://gisweb.iao.fraunhofer.de/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/def030d5b8a7454b9d461d92294340ad23:42
LjLi realize there is no certainty of this. but whenever i see something suggesting CNS involvement and/or other potentially permanent issues (including of course the virus itself remaining around), i get the creeps, what can i do. there's never "enough" evidence of it... until there is.23:42
oribaFraunhofer.de:  global: https://gisweb.iao.fraunhofer.de/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/e8e59b5517b64d378fd13729d5db5ac723:42
Nokajithey went way beyond just taking china's word .. they formulated policy that best served china, they even refused to recognise taiwan23:42
Nokajithey carried china's water23:42
aradeshhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8cKzQuGqEE (Coronavirus update Apr 3: Will $2 TRILLION be enough?)23:43
Nokajievery little bit helps23:43
wserLjL: yeah MIC  needs an enemy 23:44
LjLoriba, i'm tempted to add the Europe map since it has subnational units. does the Germany map offer anything additional to RKI to your knowledge? or the global one?23:44
NokajiUK says there will be an investigation into the handling of this and that WHO will be at the top23:44
Nokajiwheter they meant WHO is prime culprit or WHO will be leading the investigation, remains to be seen - I suspect the latter23:45
ubLIXme: *post thing with a variety of interesting angles, but also with some small mention of CNS invasion*23:45
ubLIXLjL: *aaaaaaaaaah*23:45
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:42 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Trump: CDC recommends cloth face covering to protect against coronavirus — from r/WorldNews at 21:42: Nikki Haley accuses WHO of taking 'China's word' on coronavirus transmission → https://is.gd/pxYBbA23:45
tinwhiskersthey were in a slightly difficult position, because you need to kowtow to be allowed to keep a presence in China and keeping a presence was important, but they may well have gone too far.23:46
oribaLjL: as far as I can see, the RKI has higher resolution than the Fraunhofer for germany.23:46
oribaLjL: the global map from Fraunhofer looks interesting. But loading the data is massively23:46
oribaLjL: at least the script is slow, Firefoy asks me to stop it...23:47
oribabut interesting.23:47
oribaNeed a bigger screen for that23:47
aradeshthe WHO isn't to blame. all of the governments were surrounded by experts who would have told them, "we don't know for sure. but there is a real risk this could be very bad, and come to our countries, and many die"23:47
oribaand maybe faster computer hehe23:47
aradeshwhat's to blame is the culture of saving GDP at all costs, and it lead all of the western governments to leave taking actions to slow the spread to the last possible minute23:48
aradeshthey gambled with the lives of their people, so that didn't have to be the first ones to take the economic hit of imposing restrictions, until eventually forced to by events.23:49
Timvdearadesh: That, and now the economic hit is probably harder23:49
BrainstormUpdates for World: +1129 cases (now 1094784), +39 deaths (now 58785), +71 recoveries (now 228109) since 32 minutes ago — US: +1059 cases (now 273984), +36 deaths (now 7040) since 32 minutes ago — Brazil: +795 cases (now 9056), +15 deaths (now 359) since an hour ago23:51
aradeshpoliticians like trump or johnson don't need the WHO to tell them what the risks are, they have whole committees who were probably telling them the exact risks, and they took the decisions to take the actions that they did.23:51
aradeshthey rpobably always said, "we don't know for sure" which is what the politicians want to hear ^^23:52
tinwhiskersyes, but they can use advisories or lack thereof as an excuse for doing nothing. The WHO was gun shy and held back far too long.23:53
tinwhiskersthey got in a lot of trouble for announcing a previous pandemic that turned out to be more of an epidemic (MERS was it?)23:54
tinwhiskerswe're still being harmed by their advice that face masks do not help.23:55
tinwhiskersthe motivation may have been good, by keeping masks for health workers instead of the general population but it was handled wrong.23:55
spybertThe quality of the political leadership is sorely lacking23:55
aradeshheh... up until yesterday, florida still didn't have a stay-at-home order23:56
tinwhiskersAs for the WHO accepting the Chinese at their word about the cases, I don't see what else they could have usefully done unless they had proof otherwise. They would have been kicked out of China for such an accusation.23:57
NokajiWHO were instructing nations to NOT stop flights or take any economic action that might harm china23:57
bin_bashyeah the WHO should resign tbh23:57
tinwhiskersI don't think that was just for the benefit of China23:58
bin_bashall the WHO cares about is not upsetting poor widdle autocwats23:59
NokajiI'm not convinced that reserving masks for healthworkers is even such a grand idea ... I hear it can take hundreds of masks per dya to treat a single patient (unverified) or that a nurse can get through over 100 masks a day ... on that basis, a 100 masks could prevent more than one person ever falling ill ... prevention being better than cure23:59
Nokajiplus UK has masks but won't distribute them23:59
tinwhiskersNokaji: fair23:59
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