IronY | Scarecr0w: A College in Ottawa, there not making the course content open to the public :/ | 00:00 |
---|---|---|
Scarecr0w | IronY: Oh, lol, Ottawa is in Canada, I think. I'm shitty with Geography. I thought you had it somewhere like Udemy or something. | 00:01 |
Nokaji | Coronavirus was born in China among the bloody guts of disembowelled bats, snakes, poultry and wildlife peddled in Wuhan’s infamous “wet markets”. | 00:02 |
Nokaji | I luv me some poetry | 00:02 |
Nokaji | NY says all to wear face mask when outside | 00:03 |
BobCat | FINALLY! | 00:03 |
BobCat | I have been telling everyone for a month | 00:03 |
IronY | yeay, I was write 4 weeks ago | 00:03 |
IronY | all it cost was lives to prove it | 00:03 |
IronY | bitter fucking sweet right there | 00:03 |
IronY | BobCat: exactly | 00:03 |
IronY | s/write/right | 00:03 |
Nokaji | apparently, any nation that has got a grip on this thing, has done the following ... endless testing, quarantine, tracing and face masks | 00:04 |
Nokaji | we've been drowned out by this double-speak - https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/1233725785283932160 | 00:04 |
BobCat | I was at the grocery before the "shelter in place" declaration, hundreds of people jammed up at the registers, no one wearing a mask | 00:05 |
BobCat | except for me | 00:05 |
bin_bash | BobCat: same | 00:05 |
IronY | BobCat: I faked a 2 week flu | 00:05 |
IronY | to work from home | 00:05 |
IronY | 2 weeks before we were allowed to work from home :P | 00:05 |
Nokaji | Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk! | 00:05 |
IronY | Nokaji: Yep, that is a tweet from the Surgeon general | 00:05 |
IronY | I generally won the argument of 'you should wear a masks' with the following sentence | 00:06 |
IronY | Ahemm | 00:06 |
bin_bash | the hospitals shouldve already been stocked up tbh but they didnt learn from the ebola scare so i doubt they ever will | 00:06 |
IronY | "Masks are ineffective and preventing the COVID19 disease, please donate all your masks to prevent front line health care from getting the covid19 disease" | 00:06 |
Nokaji | the thing about lies is you need to have a good memory, he had obv' forgotten his lie before even finishing his sentence | 00:06 |
IronY | If you give someone that above sentence | 00:06 |
IronY | there brain will race a little bit until they get it by themselves | 00:07 |
Nokaji | it's about the same as DG said | 00:07 |
Nokaji | double-speak | 00:07 |
IronY | if u guys get bored, give this a watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkJELpndAOs | 00:08 |
BobCat | The youtuber "Tech Ingredients" said the same thing IronY | 00:08 |
Nokaji | it's troubling that folk can be so gullible | 00:08 |
IronY | now just to be 100% clear | 00:09 |
IronY | if you have a mask | 00:09 |
IronY | if you are one of those lucky fucks that have a mask | 00:09 |
IronY | and you did not put a whole 5 mins into learning how to use it properly before going out with it | 00:09 |
IronY | I hate you | 00:09 |
IronY | :D | 00:09 |
bin_bash | i have a bunch of different masks | 00:09 |
Nokaji | similar double-speak in uk with Bojo's mainteined policy of herd immunity - everyone swears blind he is no longer doing that | 00:09 |
Nokaji | can't believe their own lying eyes | 00:10 |
dunnp | US Briefing: 27M surgival masks 19.5M N95 masks have been pushed out to hospitals. 22.4M pairs of gloves 5.2M faceshields. 7600 ventilators | 00:12 |
BobCat | my 3m n95 masks have instructions on the wrapper, no excuse for failing | 00:13 |
dunnp | est 100k vetilators provided by the end of June | 00:13 |
nixonix | invite gonzobot? | 00:13 |
nixonix | maybe ill just try.. | 00:13 |
euod[m] | ventilators are sort of a weird thing to focus on. if you're at that point your chance of survival is extremely slim. | 00:13 |
nixonix | nope, must be op | 00:14 |
IronY | nixonix: you also need to ask an op to bring a bot in | 00:14 |
IronY | nixonix: there are already 4 bots in here, what were u looking for | 00:14 |
mefistofeles | euod[m]: why weird? it directly saves lives, regardless | 00:14 |
dunnp | euod[m]: 50% survival | 00:14 |
dunnp | versus 0% without | 00:14 |
IronY | i think its 20% | 00:15 |
nixonix | i thought a bot showing titles for links | 00:15 |
IronY | nixonix: we have two of those, they do not want that feature turned on | 00:15 |
IronY | you can do this though | 00:15 |
IronY | %title http:/www.google.com | 00:15 |
Brainstorm | IronY: From www.google.com: http:/www.google.com | 00:15 |
euod[m] | dunnp: from a purely logical point of view, if you're on a ventilator you're past economic recovery. while that doesn't jive well with people's sense of what is right or wrong. | 00:16 |
dunnp | talking all about supply chains right now | 00:16 |
dunnp | no euod[m] that is an artificial definition | 00:16 |
IronY | dunnp: actually it is a thing called 'reasonable losses' | 00:17 |
IronY | and it is used in the military all the time | 00:17 |
dunnp | DPA being implemented through the supply chain to focus on increased production | 00:18 |
dunnp | IronY: not sure about that | 00:18 |
euod[m] | dunnp: like I said, it doesn't fit with morality very well, but it's still not a great thing to focus on from a totally logical standpoint. even if there was literally hundreds of thousands of the things, I doubt we have the medical staff to man them. | 00:18 |
IronY | dunnp: google it? | 00:18 |
IronY | 'acceptable loss' | 00:19 |
dunnp | I don't think anyone is an acceptable loss | 00:19 |
euod[m] | NY is already moving to this. cardiac arrest is no longer something that results in being taken to hospital. | 00:19 |
IronY | dunnp: what you think is irrelevant though, thats how it works | 00:20 |
dunnp | if we can church out more ventilators it doesn't matter what it costs | 00:20 |
dunnp | which is what we are doing | 00:20 |
LjL | euod[m], uh, my understanding was they weren't resuscitating *COVID patients* | 00:20 |
euod[m] | yes, so to reduce losses, you have to focus on saving people that can be saved. | 00:20 |
mefistofeles | euod[m]: source? | 00:20 |
IronY | 'triage' | 00:20 |
euod[m] | reference: https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-nyc-emts-stop-taking-cardiac-arrest-patients-to-hospitals/ | 00:20 |
euod[m] | "Cardiac arrest victims whose hearts cannot be restarted at the scene are now being left there — rather than being brought to coronavirus-strained hospitals for further revival attempts, according to a new guidance for medical responders." | 00:20 |
mefistofeles | ah ok | 00:20 |
mefistofeles | yes | 00:20 |
AimHere | Those aren't Covid patients, LjL, those are just any patients outside hospital who would ordinarily be passed to the ER for resuscitation | 00:21 |
LjL | well that's not great | 00:21 |
euod[m] | yep. triage. | 00:22 |
AimHere | Indeed not | 00:22 |
dunnp | euod[m]: not sure how spending a few thousand per ventilator isn't worth it to save lives | 00:22 |
mefistofeles | yes, triage indeed | 00:22 |
LjL | you aren't responsible for this. however, i hope while shrugging and saying "triage", you also keep in mind that China, Italy, ..., have given the US plenty of advance warning of what would happen, and time to prepare | 00:22 |
mefistofeles | dunnp: I heard ICUs ventilators can be up to 200k USD | 00:22 |
LjL | and instead... people are being left to die? that's not right. | 00:22 |
mefistofeles | each one | 00:22 |
Brainstorm | New bulletins for World: +614 cases (now 1010668), +16 deaths (now 52882), +137 recoveries (now 212015) since data from an hour ago — Alabama, US: +49 cases (now 1251) since data from an hour ago — Albania: +9 recoveries (now 76) since data from an hour ago | 00:23 |
mefistofeles | LjL: not much you can do, the preparation wasn'tenough, and the situation is what it is | 00:23 |
euod[m] | dunnp: look at it like this. if you can save 5 people with the amount of care it would take to put on a ventilator, that's obviously what should happen. the number of actual ventilators is irrelevant at this scale. | 00:23 |
dunnp | mefistofeles: thats cheap enough also | 00:23 |
mefistofeles | dunnp: ok, just saying | 00:24 |
dunnp | euod[m]: how is it irrelevant | 00:24 |
mefistofeles | but, you know, USA in a press conference said that non-ICUs ventilators only need a firmware update to become ICUs ones | 00:24 |
mefistofeles | so... :/ | 00:24 |
pyna | depend on where you are and what form of social insanity you have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life#Estimates_of_the_value_of_life | 00:24 |
euod[m] | dunnp: there's other limiting factors, like having actual medical staff. from what I understand of them they're not really a set and forget sort of situation, you have to have people basically sedated while doing it, if you screw up you explode people's lungs. | 00:25 |
LjL | mefistofeles, well there are laws against changing protected firmware without due authorization, i certainly wouldn't want hospitals to be held liable to the DMCA for doing something as foolish as trying to upgrade a ventilator in a non-approved manner! | 00:25 |
mefistofeles | LjL: hehe | 00:26 |
mefistofeles | they also said they were allowing that, iirc | 00:26 |
dunnp | ford & GM have repurposed factories to push out more ventilators | 00:26 |
LjL | mefistofeles, yeah, except they realized... late. | 00:26 |
LjL | mefistofeles, it didn't sound like companies were overeager to make them aware of this fact | 00:27 |
mefistofeles | dunnp: yeah, but that's not coming soon enough | 00:27 |
mefistofeles | Tesla noticed that, and bought 1200 chinese ventilators (ironic I know) | 00:27 |
dunnp | us govt has put in supply chain controls to push parts to those factories | 00:27 |
dunnp | euod[m]: staff isnt a limitation on the current ventilator use | 00:27 |
euod[m] | dunnp if you had more it would be, for sure. | 00:28 |
mefistofeles | dunnp: I think it is (in some countries, not sure NYC/USA) | 00:28 |
mefistofeles | these commonly need internists | 00:28 |
dunnp | sorry i'm half quoting the current white house briefing | 00:28 |
euod[m] | dunnp: my point was, even if you could magic 100k of the things tomorrow, there's other bottlenecks. it's never going to be enough, and even if it was, you only end up with a 50% (or whatever) survival rate. | 00:28 |
dunnp | 50% is a lot better than 0% | 00:29 |
mefistofeles | euod[m]: I don't think so | 00:29 |
mefistofeles | but it does depend on many other things | 00:29 |
mefistofeles | at least for regions with low ICUs ventilators numbers, it really helps to have more and also work on automated fast decision making software/algorithms | 00:30 |
LjL | dunnp, if we assume those are the patients who actually die (making the somewhat daring assumptions that those who can survive if you just give them oxygen and a bit of care, will), then that makes the death rate become twice. i am not much of a mathematician but i do believe that 100% is twice as much as 50% | 00:30 |
mefistofeles | triage algorithm are kinda standardized, and you can think of implementing them in some kind of software that non-experts can use to make decisions | 00:31 |
mefistofeles | *algorithms | 00:31 |
dunnp | LjL: yes but assuming that putting someone on a ventilator doesn't mean someone else can't have oxygen | 00:32 |
euod[m] | nothing scarier than being at the front of triage. | 00:32 |
dunnp | NYC is not at full on triage | 00:32 |
mefistofeles | Madrid kinda is, though | 00:32 |
LibertyAlways | This corona virus is about these people in freenode censoring you and having more control over you | 00:32 |
LibertyAlways | It's not only the virus | 00:32 |
LjL | dunnp, i guess that's sort of the argument the others are making. but... i dunno, i believe here at least, the big shortage is on ICU beds, not normal beds... yet, anyway. like, they're using CPAP hoods as a substitute for ventilators in some cases, but not as a substitute for simple oxygen | 00:33 |
LibertyAlways | There's going to be a mass slave system | 00:33 |
euod[m] | never had a bigger rush than realising I was triaged in front of someone who had literal limbs coming off. | 00:33 |
mefistofeles | LibertyAlways: stop that | 00:33 |
LibertyAlways | These people are going to try to prostitute your children here and on discrod | 00:33 |
LibertyAlways | discord | 00:33 |
LjL | i guess that's positive proof in their view | 00:33 |
euod[m] | LjL: hopefully staying at home means less of the normal hospital visits at least. | 00:34 |
euod[m] | less car accidents, getting knifed at a tesco, that sort of thing. | 00:34 |
dunnp | WH: Using opportunity to pass law to deregulate and push only domestic manufacturing of healthcare components | 00:34 |
dunnp | ughhhh | 00:34 |
LjL | euod[m], the few cars i see are going pretty darned fast, though | 00:34 |
euod[m] | LjL: oh yeah there's people around here doing 160km+. | 00:35 |
Brainstorm | New bulletins for World: +1051 cases (now 1011719), +16 deaths (now 52898) since 20 minutes ago — US: +998 cases (now 241658), +16 deaths (now 5827) since 20 minutes ago — Florida, US: +998 cases (now 9008), +16 deaths (now 144) since 20 minutes ago | 00:35 |
dunnp | trump: we could have stopped ventilators from going to Italy and Spain but we let it go | 00:35 |
euod[m] | LjL: good news is at that speed nobody goes to hospital. | 00:35 |
LjL | euod[m], except for the car going at 40km/h coming the other way ;( | 00:36 |
LjL | well, or, they also don't | 00:36 |
dunnp | trump: 151 countries are ordering from us | 00:36 |
dunnp | hah | 00:36 |
LjL | dunnp, which ones, the several million nothings that the US gave us? | 00:36 |
dunnp | trump: soon ventilators will be worth $5 | 00:36 |
dunnp | there ya go | 00:36 |
mefistofeles | heh | 00:37 |
LjL | oh i'll buy one then, where can i make an order | 00:37 |
dunnp | probably LjL - just quoting the press conference | 00:37 |
mefistofeles | they will be much cheaper, that's for sure | 00:37 |
LjL | dunnp, yeah yeah i get it. is it live now? | 00:37 |
dunnp | yea | 00:37 |
dunnp | https://www.cnn.com/specials/live-video-1 | 00:37 |
dunnp | realistically the US has an awful lot of resources that can move around rapidly but the leadership has really f'ed it up | 00:38 |
dunnp | NYC could have far more cases and still avoid the need to triage patients | 00:38 |
dunnp | trump is now promoting the small business relief.. | 00:39 |
LjL | asking the government for thousands ventilators?! unheard of! | 00:39 |
LjL | but also, COVID-19, unheard of, just saying | 00:39 |
dunnp | trump: better than healthcare - here is $1200 | 00:39 |
dunnp | euod[m]: if it would cost $5M to save someone's life, but it would work, would you spend it? | 00:40 |
LjL | it's the states' fault for not buying things because they think COVID wouldn't have reached them | 00:41 |
LjL | ... unlike Trump, who always thought COVID was a huge deal? | 00:41 |
mefistofeles | nobody bought many ventilators, there just weren't many | 00:41 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:27 UTC: Coronavirus US live: Trump again tests negative for illness, White House says: DNC confirms nominating convention postponed 6.65 million filed for US unemployment last week US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars See all our coronavirus coverage [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/HG3MG8 | 00:41 |
mefistofeles | and if anything, USA bought more than most others | 00:42 |
oriba | Corona-Ausbruch in Potsdamer Klinikum https://www.rbb-online.de/rbb24/videos/20200401_2145/aufnahmestopp-potsdamer-klinikum.html | 00:42 |
LjL | dTal, it makes the output a little longer (back again from shortening to the first 4 countries/regions) but now Brainstorm gives a fuzzy indication of how long ago the previous update was, so it's not completely x-axis-less anymore... although it's still in jumps however they happen from the sources | 00:49 |
Brainstorm | New bulletins for World: +1369 cases (now 1013088), +47 deaths (now 52945) since 16 minutes ago — US: +1241 cases (now 242899), +38 deaths (now 5865) since 16 minutes ago — California, US: +820 cases (now 10838), +19 deaths (now 234) since 35 minutes ago | 00:50 |
euod[m] | dunnp: you don't seem to understand. this isn't a question of cost. | 00:50 |
dTal | well that sounds like an improvement | 00:50 |
dTal | say, how often are they testing Trump | 00:50 |
euod[m] | dunnp: there's a limited capaciticy. money is already not a consideration. | 00:51 |
euod[m] | money can't make nurses appear. | 00:51 |
dunnp | euod[m]: we are no where close to the limit of capacity in the US | 00:51 |
euod[m] | dunnp: in NY it's been exceeded for a while already. | 00:51 |
dunnp | don't think so euod[m] | 00:52 |
dunnp | especially not capacity for people on ventilators | 00:52 |
euod[m] | they literally aren't taking people to hospitals they otherwise would. | 00:52 |
dunnp | well yes, our hospital is redirecting patients away from the main hospital already also | 00:55 |
dunnp | all the non-covid patients | 00:56 |
dunnp | but we have other places for them to go | 00:56 |
LjL | Spec, looks like the FDA is being ridiculous in more than one way https://reason.com/2020/04/02/the-fda-is-making-it-much-much-harder-for-distilleries-to-produce-hand-sanitizer/ | 00:57 |
mefistofeles | is it just me or this doctor doesn't seem to understand the math concepts ? | 00:59 |
mefistofeles | seems too vague when talking about these things | 00:59 |
Birosso | %cases | 01:02 |
Brainstorm | Birosso: In all areas, World, there are 1013088 cases, 52945 deaths (5.2% of cases), 212015 recoveries as of 15 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 20.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:02 |
pwr22 | LjL: My homeserver now does URL previews 😁 | 01:02 |
LjL | pwr22, let's hope you don't end up loading many naughty urls | 01:03 |
pwr22 | ha ha yeah | 01:03 |
graphine | hi | 01:03 |
pwr22 | Hi | 01:03 |
mefistofeles | pwr22: I don't get it, what are you doing exactly? | 01:04 |
LjL | Matrix things | 01:04 |
pwr22 | mefistofeles: eh? | 01:04 |
Birosso | Is anyone watching Trump's press conference right now? | 01:04 |
Birosso | It's very entertaining. | 01:04 |
mefistofeles | Birosso: I am | 01:04 |
pwr22 | Got a link? | 01:04 |
mefistofeles | it's so vague | 01:04 |
Birosso | Did you see the bit about the banS? | 01:04 |
mefistofeles | https://edition.cnn.com/specials/live-video-1 | 01:05 |
euod[m] | better or worse than his My Piellow one? | 01:05 |
Birosso | Hod mu dn stdchusp | 01:05 |
mefistofeles | Birosso: what? | 01:05 |
graphine | novelle vague | 01:05 |
Birosso | mefistofeles: Sometimes I don't place my hands properly on the keyboard. | 01:05 |
Brainstorm | New bulletins for World: +536 cases (now 1013624), +43 deaths (now 52988) since 18 minutes ago — Alabama, US: +10 cases (now 1261) since 50 minutes ago — Argentina: +2 deaths (now 36) since 50 minutes ago | 01:05 |
mefistofeles | Birosso: haha yeah | 01:05 |
Birosso | mefistofeles: I was trying to say: Had me in stitches. | 01:05 |
LjL | pwr22, also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isosHlzEG0g if that fails (failed for me) | 01:05 |
pwr22 | Birosso: I've missed hours of it 😭 | 01:05 |
Birosso | euod[m]: I don't know which one you're talking about. Looks like I missed out. | 01:06 |
euod[m] | Birosso: for one of them he brought out the dude who made My Pillow who rambled on about how god will save us. | 01:06 |
mefistofeles | wtf is this press conference? | 01:06 |
pwr22 | Has Trump made any more comments about NYC hospitals stealing masks? | 01:07 |
euod[m] | man trump looks like a fucking joke. | 01:07 |
euod[m] | he looks even older and worse tanned than usual. | 01:07 |
pwr22 | Iran loves america? | 01:07 |
Birosso | "The Iranians love America. They'd love to have some of the things we have." | 01:08 |
pwr22 | A long time ago but not so long ago. | 01:08 |
Birosso | What happened to "They hate us for our freedoms"? | 01:08 |
LjL | Birosso, they'd love to have their freedoms, duh | 01:08 |
pwr22 | And has he started attacking any journalists yet for not being nice to him? | 01:08 |
pwr22 | I want to know if I should stay up till 2am watching the bits I've missed 😁 | 01:09 |
LjL | god no | 01:09 |
pwr22 | The last one I watched was fantastically entertaining | 01:10 |
pwr22 | Much better than any reality TV | 01:10 |
LjL | that's a loooooow bar | 01:11 |
euod[m] | I find it painful. it has about the same vibe as a crack addict trying to say that they didn't steal your watch. | 01:11 |
euod[m] | they'll say anything to get more crack. | 01:11 |
Birosso | WHoever is speaking right now looks like he's about to burst into tears. | 01:11 |
euod[m] | that's his son in law. | 01:11 |
LjL | listen for this i guess | 01:13 |
LjL | <CarlSagan_> [NYT - Science] Trump Administration Expected to Recommend All Americans Wear Cloth Masks in Public https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/masks-coronavirus-cdc.html 2020-04-02T22:52:20 | 01:13 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:00 UTC: Coronavirus US live: Trump blames states for lack of supplies: DNC confirms nominating convention postponed 6.65 million filed for US unemployment last week US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars See all our coronavirus coverage [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/HG3MG8 | 01:13 |
LjL | going to be a bit of a long shot from "nothing below N95 is useful and not even those unless you know the magic tricks" | 01:13 |
LjL | who'd've thought all those people wearing masks in Korea could be correlated with the fact they're controlling it better | 01:14 |
Birosso | Is the Guardian being needlessly sensational and exaggerating there? | 01:14 |
Birosso | The bit about the food. | 01:14 |
LjL | Birosso, i can't see well, is there a suspicious "as" in the headline? | 01:14 |
LjL | if so, then yes | 01:14 |
Birosso | "US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars " | 01:15 |
LjL | Birosso, it sure shows you're young and have great eyesight | 01:15 |
Birosso | Indeed, indeed! | 01:17 |
Birosso | %cases us | 01:20 |
Brainstorm | New bulletins for World: +687 cases (now 1014311) since 16 minutes ago — US: +1071 cases (now 243970), +18 deaths (now 5883) since 33 minutes ago — New York, US: +672 cases (now 93053) since 33 minutes ago | 01:20 |
Brainstorm | Birosso: In all areas, US, there are 243970 cases, 5883 deaths (2.4% of cases), 10400 recoveries as of 4 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:20 |
bin_bash | lmfao https://www.rt.com/news/484723-us-france-face-masks/?fbclid=IwAR39vwsgLS2X-mlVqHJQHdY-BtYoyAc9u5aTJa66sg_A_yiDOlqd0c8cvNI | 01:21 |
Birosso | His attempts at twisting the doctor's (?) words are hilarious. | 01:23 |
mefistofeles | when Trump has to explain the rates and comparisons and curves with other countries, you are not doing a good job as an expert | 01:23 |
mefistofeles | Birosso: the doctor is really bad at communicating, imho | 01:23 |
Birosso | mefistofeles: I haven't been paying attention to what they've been saying, but her freaking out a moment ago when he suggested an interpretaiton of what she said is what caught my attention. | 01:24 |
Birosso | Indeed. He seems obsessed with comparisons. | 01:24 |
mefistofeles | Birosso: you can see how insecure she is, always looking at others :/ | 01:25 |
mefistofeles | that's bad | 01:25 |
nixonix | so these 70% sensitivity tests, and masks made of t-shirts. all for some sense of security? | 01:25 |
mefistofeles | also, maybe she is forced to say something ? | 01:25 |
PlanckWalk | nixonix: They're still better than nothing | 01:27 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:19 UTC: Australia news: Australia coronavirus live updates: Queenslanders wake up to stricter border controls as Australian cases surpass 5,100 - latest news — from r/WorldNews at 23:19: (UK) Surgeon who was kicked out by his landlady over coronavirus infection fears sets up successful website matching vacant rooms with NHS workers in need → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 01:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | wait what? >> US: +1071 cases (now 243970), +18 deaths (now 5883) ***since 33 minutes ago***<< ARRRGH | 01:29 |
mefistofeles | this doesn't add up for me, of course you will have only a minority of states having worse situation, I mean, it's not like every state has a NYC or LA or Chicago, etc. | 01:30 |
mefistofeles | r a Mardi Gras | 01:30 |
mefistofeles | *or | 01:30 |
mefistofeles | this press conference is really weird, it's all so fuzzy | 01:30 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Putin seeking to create new world order with ‘rogue states’ amid coronavirus crisis, report claims (10187 votes) | https://redd.it/ftowec | 01:31 |
mefistofeles | I don't know if they are actually making a good effort on being transparent and let people realize they don't really know many (most?) things, or they are just badly prepared | 01:31 |
graphine | lol nixonix | 01:32 |
graphine | next time they should just ask you guys | 01:32 |
graphine | you seem to know it all | 01:33 |
nixonix | Mike Lozano, a Tampa, Fla.,-based executive at Envision Healthcare Corp., a medical group that contracts to provide care at hospitals. Dr. Lozano said he estimates that the sensitivity of the tests is in the neighborhood of 70%, meaning nearly one in three positive patients walks away with a reassuring negative result. | 01:33 |
Birosso | Oh my gawd, this story time. | 01:33 |
Birosso | I love it. | 01:33 |
mefistofeles | Birosso: wtf is this | 01:33 |
mefistofeles | haha | 01:33 |
nixonix | Chris Smalley, a primary-care doctor at Louisville, Ky.,-based Norton Healthcare, said the 70% estimate was gaining traction with doctors finding out how well the tests work in the real world, absent better data. | 01:33 |
Birosso | I know, right? | 01:33 |
Birosso | :D | 01:33 |
nixonix | Dr. Smalley said a negative result is more likely to be accurate in places like Louisville where the prevalence is low, but could be virtually useless in New York, where it is high. | 01:34 |
nixonix | its not totally useless, if they make several them per suspected case. but do they? | 01:35 |
nixonix | maybe the same with t-shirt masks, if you put several them on top of each other... | 01:36 |
graphine | try gas mak | 01:37 |
casa_ | I am from Argentina, I would like to know what you think of the policies your leaders are taking | 01:37 |
graphine | hi casa_ | 01:38 |
casa_ | hi excuse me | 01:38 |
graphine | i do not think i should follower our leader | 01:39 |
graphine | follow | 01:39 |
Birosso | casa_: I'm from Egypt. I'm not physically in the country right now, but from what I've been hearing and from my experiences from the past two decades: It's not looking good. | 01:40 |
mefistofeles | most countries are implementing similar measures, imho | 01:40 |
Birosso | LjL: Remember when I told you that as an Egyption national I can be flown from Germany to Egypt through the embassy? | 01:40 |
Birosso | Turns out there's a catch. | 01:40 |
mefistofeles | at least, theoretically | 01:40 |
graphine | you are better off with getting opinion from scientists than from political leaders | 01:40 |
Birosso | When you land you're forced into a 14-day quarantine THAT YOU PAY FOR YOURSELF | 01:40 |
Birosso | IN A FIVE-STAR HOTEL! | 01:41 |
mefistofeles | the "how" and obedience of people is what varies a lot | 01:41 |
LjL | Birosso, lol | 01:41 |
LjL | Birosso, hotel owner coincidentally the PM's brother? | 01:41 |
Birosso | No doubt someone from the inner circle. | 01:41 |
graphine | should be pretty secure in southern argentina | 01:41 |
graphine | very far south | 01:41 |
graphine | not many people there | 01:42 |
mefistofeles | the hotel idea is great if you didn't have to pay it yourself, though | 01:42 |
graphine | but also pretty cold | 01:42 |
nixonix | WSJ Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry http://archive.is/zLjjt | 01:42 |
casa_ | here there are states that are thinking of applying that whoever wants to enter has to pay their test | 01:43 |
graphine | how do they control their borders | 01:43 |
graphine | do they expect people to only enter a country at the customs? | 01:44 |
graphine | pretty much green border everywhere | 01:44 |
LjL | Birosso, at least the good news for you here is your stay would likely not be in a hotel, although it would be longer | 01:46 |
mefistofeles | casa_: that's not a bad idea, Korea did that, afaik | 01:46 |
mefistofeles | as long as it actually means that more tests will be made, of course | 01:46 |
casa_ | in theory they are closed with gendarmerie control is the closest thing to a military man, but today a group of immigrants from bolivia and venezuela was arrested in buenos aires | 01:47 |
graphine | trump still stings a wall will help | 01:47 |
graphine | maybe a wall like between east and west germany | 01:47 |
Xeon3D | Heh, here we're not even testing all of the medical staff that are working on the hospitals, so we're probably infecting more people when they are attended by a physician... | 01:47 |
graphine | with automated guns | 01:47 |
penny_ | the hospitals are death traps | 01:48 |
Xeon3D | And we can't still buy alcohol or hand sanitizer cause shops still haven't got them. | 01:48 |
graphine | you better drink the stuff Xeon3D | 01:48 |
graphine | at least have some fun | 01:48 |
mefistofeles | Xeon3D: health workers are expected to get inected indeed, the common protocols for that is that you should act as if you were infected as a health worker, I think | 01:48 |
mefistofeles | so, wearing PPE, distancing as possible, etc. | 01:49 |
Xeon3D | Heh, I've stopped doing that around 20 years ago. :) | 01:49 |
graphine | no booze anymore Xeon3D | 01:49 |
Xeon3D | well, we can't buy most PPE gear... | 01:49 |
Xeon3D | and the masks we can rarely find are the type that only protects the other person, not the wearer... | 01:49 |
graphine | forget the masks | 01:50 |
LjL | oh that protects both to a smaller extent | 01:50 |
LjL | which seems not unlikely to me | 01:50 |
graphine | how old are you Xeon3D | 01:50 |
Xeon3D | what does? | 01:50 |
Xeon3D | 36. :) | 01:50 |
Xeon3D | and counting. | 01:50 |
Brainstorm | New bulletins for World: +587 cases (now 1014898), +7 deaths (now 52995), +3 recoveries (now 212018) since 34 minutes ago — Alabama, US: +10 cases (now 1261) since an hour ago — Argentina: +132 cases (now 1265), +2 deaths (now 36) since an hour ago | 01:50 |
graphine | you will survive it | 01:50 |
LjL | Xeon3D, surgical masks. the idea they don't protect the wearer seems to be... wearing out. | 01:50 |
Xeon3D | graphine, I surely hope so. | 01:51 |
graphine | i do know so | 01:51 |
Xeon3D | LjL I had the impression that that depends on the type of mask | 01:51 |
graphine | maybe become seriously sick | 01:51 |
graphine | but not that badly | 01:51 |
graphine | pretty much maths | 01:52 |
penny_ | they must reduce the viral dose at least a little bit | 01:52 |
Xeon3D | I don't plan on getting sick at all... | 01:52 |
graphine | that can be hard | 01:52 |
graphine | but good idea | 01:52 |
graphine | if you have the virus already at the wrong side you will get it even more | 01:53 |
LjL | Xeon3D, yes, surgical masks definitely don't give the wearer any *guarantee* of any sorts, while N95 and FFP2 (similar but different standards) do provide a guarantee, although it's still probabilistic. however, the jump was quickly made from that to "surgical masks don't protect the wearer at all". well, there is no actual evidence for that, while there's starting to be a more widespread belief that they do, and the main reason they were recommended | 01:53 |
LjL | against was that there is a worldwide shortage, and healthcare workers need them the most | 01:53 |
penny_ | yeah it was basically propaganda | 01:53 |
graphine | those mask do not sit well | 01:53 |
rajrajraj | tinwhiskers: what should an indian citizen do | 01:53 |
graphine | did you guys ever have worn such a mask at work? | 01:53 |
Xeon3D | I do. | 01:54 |
graphine | they get easily wet | 01:54 |
Xeon3D | Indeed. | 01:54 |
graphine | and than they suck | 01:54 |
graphine | every craftsman knows that | 01:54 |
penny_ | i wore an n95 a lot during a recent wildfire | 01:54 |
graphine | IT guys do not seem to know that | 01:54 |
LjL | well then isn't it even odder that they would be reserved to *healthcare workers*? | 01:54 |
graphine | you have to change them very often than | 01:54 |
LjL | yeah, healthcare workers tell me that doesn't happen in practice | 01:55 |
graphine | because air goes everywhere than comes through the sides and all | 01:55 |
mefistofeles | Cloth (e.g. cotton or gauze) masks are not recommended | 01:55 |
mefistofeles | under any circumstances | 01:55 |
graphine | right Xeon3D | 01:55 |
graphine | ? | 01:55 |
bin_bash | mefistofeles: source | 01:55 |
Xeon3D | I only use them whenever I'm out of my van... (I do ATM maintenance) | 01:55 |
LjL | mefistofeles, are there studies saying they are worse than nothing? because it's sometimes stated, but the few studies i've seen seemed to say the some E. Coli, at least, was stopped more effectively by anything than by nothing | 01:56 |
Xeon3D | and service has been scarce nowadays | 01:56 |
graphine | if you have real protection like air masks with real filters | 01:56 |
oxalis | LjL: just popping in to express my appreciation and gratitude for what you’re doing in #Covid-19. It’s a lot of work and you seem to *always* be in here to answer questions. Thank you. | 01:56 |
mefistofeles | bin_bash: that's the WHO official mask thing | 01:56 |
LjL | oxalis, i'm definitely not always here, i sleep too much lately (at weird hours, but still too much). but appreciated | 01:56 |
bin_bash | ok can you post the link please mefistofeles | 01:56 |
mefistofeles | one sec | 01:56 |
mefistofeles | https://www.who.int/publications-detail/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak | 01:56 |
tinwhiskers | rajrajraj: what is your government telling you to do? | 01:57 |
mefistofeles | btw, since march 19 | 01:57 |
graphine | we should prepare for mefistofeles | 01:58 |
graphine | haha | 01:58 |
graphine | maybe we will see him soon | 01:58 |
LjL | yeah, official WHO advice counts as less authoritative than even a preliminary study in my book after this whole shitshow, sorry :\ it's not like they even give a reason for that in the document | 01:58 |
mefistofeles | graphine: haha | 01:58 |
graphine | i better stay nice | 01:58 |
rajrajraj | tinwhiskers: they just telling us to stay home until 14th April | 01:58 |
graphine | i like it cooler | 01:58 |
tinwhiskers | rajrajraj: that sounds like a good plan | 01:59 |
graphine | in germany they tell to stay home until april 19 | 01:59 |
graphine | 20th of april was hitlers bday | 01:59 |
graphine | weird! | 01:59 |
graphine | just facts | 01:59 |
graphine | i leave the conclusion up to you ... | 01:59 |
jiffe | 19th is a sunday | 01:59 |
Xeon3D | we're now aproaching (sp) 10k cases :/ | 02:00 |
Xeon3D | and we've been "quarantined" since march 20th or so. | 02:00 |
Birosso | jiffe, plausable but improbable. | 02:00 |
graphine | i wont celebrate anyware | 02:00 |
Birosso | I'm more inclined to believe the Hitler thing. | 02:00 |
mefistofeles | graphine: when did they say until 19th april? | 02:00 |
graphine | anyway | 02:00 |
mefistofeles | graphine: do you have the source? | 02:00 |
bin_bash | mefistofeles: thx | 02:00 |
LjL | mefistofeles, it may be a bit of a DIY paper, but still bearing the Stanford logo... https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fstanfordmedicine.box.com%2Fv%2Fcovid19-PPE-1-1 they measure that just about anything, including cotton, filters more than a scarf (which also presumably filters better than nothing, given the figures) | 02:00 |
Birosso | mefistofeles: I'm in Germany and my university and all other people I know in other universities were told it's until the 19th. | 02:00 |
graphine | merkel said i think on the radio too | 02:00 |
Birosso | But that was two weeks ago. | 02:00 |
graphine | at least | 02:01 |
LjL | (page 4) | 02:01 |
graphine | but of course they will than make it longer | 02:01 |
graphine | just want to give ppl at least a little something to look up to | 02:01 |
Birosso | The more-recent emails from my university suggest an extension. | 02:02 |
Birosso | In fact everything is going digital here. | 02:02 |
graphine | fine with me starts to drive me nuts to stay at home but if it protect the elderly i will do so | 02:02 |
graphine | old people are fun! | 02:02 |
Birosso | Find a hobby. | 02:02 |
Birosso | Buy a musical instrument. | 02:02 |
Birosso | It does wonders. | 02:02 |
graphine | where? | 02:02 |
Birosso | Where what? Where to find a hobby? | 02:02 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:48 UTC: Coronavirus US live: Trump blames states for lack of supplies: DNC confirms nominating convention postponed 6.65 million filed for US unemployment last week US facing hunger crisis as demand for food banks soars See all our coronavirus coverage [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/HG3MG8 | 02:02 |
graphine | where are oyu Birosso | 02:02 |
Birosso | Germany. | 02:03 |
casa_ | us from March 14 to April 13 | 02:03 |
graphine | oh | 02:03 |
graphine | na dann | 02:03 |
Birosso | Huch! | 02:03 |
Birosso | Germans everywhere. | 02:03 |
graphine | yeah | 02:03 |
LjL | Birosso, was ist nun das Preoblem hier? | 02:03 |
graphine | was bored most chats suck | 02:03 |
graphine | is irc okay? | 02:03 |
Birosso | Was ist denn ein Preoblem? | 02:04 |
mefistofeles | LjL: that document doesn't really address the point in question | 02:04 |
mefistofeles | they are just testing disinfecting methods for suggesting re-use of masks | 02:04 |
graphine | i just like company thats all | 02:04 |
graphine | hobby alone naaa not my thing | 02:04 |
Birosso | graphine: Music can keep you company. | 02:05 |
graphine | my internet line sucks | 02:05 |
mefistofeles | graphine: Birosso why arent you sleeping? xD | 02:05 |
graphine | so i cant to stuff like youtube well | 02:05 |
Birosso | Well, online interactions should help then. | 02:05 |
LjL | mefistofeles, it has an "Effectiveness comparison of homeless masks" by percentage of E. Coli filtered, including masks in cotton etc. what is the actual point in question, if not that? | 02:05 |
Birosso | graphine: Do you play video games? | 02:05 |
graphine | not very tired | 02:05 |
Brainstorm | New bulletins for Quebec, Canada: +907 cases (now 5518), +3 deaths (now 36) since 21 hours ago — Alabama, US: +10 cases (now 1261) since an hour ago — Argentina: +132 cases (now 1265), +2 deaths (now 36) since an hour ago | 02:05 |
graphine | i used to | 02:05 |
casa_ | ask what is happening in the jails of your countries | 02:05 |
Birosso | Passive stuff isn't sufficient. | 02:05 |
Birosso | This is a great time for online games. | 02:05 |
graphine | as i said i can only go online via cell phone | 02:06 |
Birosso | It'll help with your socialisation needs. | 02:06 |
penny_ | as a NEET my life hasnt really changed | 02:06 |
Birosso | graphine: I didn't notice. Why can you only go online htrough a cell phone? | 02:06 |
graphine | no internet at home | 02:06 |
Birosso | Why not? :O | 02:06 |
graphine | lol just do not have it# | 02:06 |
Birosso | What's a NEET? | 02:06 |
Birosso | WHY DO YOU NOT HAVE INTERNET AT HOME? | 02:06 |
penny_ | not in education employment or training | 02:07 |
Birosso | It's VERY useful~! | 02:07 |
graphine | lol | 02:07 |
Butterfly^ | !covid | 02:07 |
CoronaBot | Total cases: 1,014,296 (+79,100), deaths: 52,982 (+5,790), recovered: 212,018. Active cases: 749,296, 711,598 are in a mild condition, 37,698 are in a serious condition. Mortality: 5.22%, case fatality rate: 19.99%. Case rate: 76,836/day, death rate: 4,883/day. Last update: 9m ago. | 02:07 |
penny_ | i like it graphine very minimalist | 02:07 |
Birosso | penny_: I was in all three. | 02:07 |
graphine | lol penny_ | 02:07 |
Birosso | Now everything is screwed. | 02:07 |
penny_ | dang | 02:07 |
graphine | a penny for your thoughts penny | 02:07 |
graphine | :-) | 02:07 |
penny_ | :) | 02:07 |
Birosso | C: | 02:07 |
Birosso | @.@ | 02:08 |
Birosso | e.e | 02:08 |
Birosso | o.o | 02:08 |
graphine | i started to sketch / draw some years ago | 02:08 |
Birosso | Okay, I'll stop now. | 02:08 |
graphine | i am waiting for my wacom thing to come | 02:08 |
graphine | hej penny_ where are you from? | 02:09 |
mefistofeles | LjL: I see, they do it with bacteria, so I guess that's assuming the virus enters with a bacteria as a host? | 02:09 |
graphine | what instrument do you play Birosso | 02:09 |
LjL | mefistofeles, they do it with bacteria because they do not have safety protocols to do it with viruses without risk. that may be suboptimal, but so is the WHO just saying they aren't recommended without citing anything to back that up | 02:10 |
mefistofeles | LjL: they sure have some citing, and there are plenty of studies on that as well (as there are on the opposite maybe) | 02:10 |
graphine | brb need to look how mom is doing | 02:10 |
mefistofeles | LjL: I mean, not in that document, but they are not making that up, for sure | 02:11 |
mefistofeles | that document doesn't have any citing other than who itself, which I guess is on purpose, because it's not a technical document | 02:11 |
LjL | yeah, sorry but i just don't believe the WHO anymore. i could believe what they cite, if it makes a decent argument, but the organization itself, after recent event, i only see as a political entity with zero medical relevancy | 02:13 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Germany marks first ever quarter with more than 50 percent renewable electricity (10742 votes) | https://redd.it/ftqwbc | 02:13 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu shared a fake video from the Hallmark series 'Pandemic' and claimed it as evidence that Iran was covering up its coronavirus deaths (10049 votes) | https://redd.it/ftljer | 02:13 |
mefistofeles | not sure if you remember that chinese study on the bus? that was then taken down and authors retracted and such, one of the claims they made was that only people not wearing masks were infected, apparently that wasn't the case | 02:13 |
LjL | earthquake right now in southern (and central? they say felt in Rome) italy | 02:14 |
mefistofeles | so yeah, I guess it's still not known, and if you are taking a risk because you have a mask, I suggest you just reconsider and avoid taking it if you wouldn't have taken it without a mask | 02:14 |
graphine | back | 02:15 |
mefistofeles | these homemad masks can also easily become vectors of transmission, that's another issue that people don't address, there's a reason why medical things are not porous... because you cannot really disinfect things with pores | 02:16 |
mefistofeles | well, I mean, that easily | 02:16 |
graphine | is there any good chat website left | 02:16 |
penny_ | https://webchat.freenode.net/ | 02:17 |
penny_ | graphine im from oakland california | 02:17 |
graphine | oakland As | 02:17 |
Xeon3D | 0.1% of our population is already infected. One would think that's a low figure. Thing is... only 0.67% of the population has been tested. | 02:17 |
graphine | wow california | 02:17 |
penny_ | go a's! | 02:17 |
LjL | mefistofeles, well the same document is also about methods of disinfection, probably not a coincidence they combined the two, in their thinking. anyway sure, if you can avoid taking a risk, taking it just because you have a cotton mask is foolish... but unfortunately there are things most people have to do | 02:17 |
graphine | now how cool is that | 02:17 |
penny_ | u think? | 02:17 |
mefistofeles | also materials in them may be more suited for the virus to stay longer, specially if they get wet or something | 02:17 |
graphine | yes | 02:17 |
penny_ | its a unique spot true | 02:18 |
graphine | california is like a dream | 02:18 |
penny_ | um | 02:18 |
graphine | thats in bay area oakland | 02:18 |
graphine | north of frisco i think | 02:18 |
penny_ | yes across the bay from san francisc | 02:18 |
mefistofeles | LjL: yes, but they basically say in that same document that no home disinfectant method works | 02:18 |
penny_ | east | 02:18 |
graphine | oki | 02:18 |
mefistofeles | LjL: for the masks, that is | 02:18 |
graphine | computer whizz ha penny_ | 02:18 |
mefistofeles | anyways, gotta sleep :/haha | 02:19 |
penny_ | not me not compared to people in here | 02:19 |
penny_ | programming is wayyy to tedious for me | 02:19 |
graphine | sleep well mefistofeles | 02:19 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i thought they said heating at 70° in an oven seemed pretty good | 02:19 |
graphine | what are you penny_ | 02:19 |
graphine | like professionally | 02:19 |
mefistofeles | LjL: specifically said "not your home oven" | 02:19 |
mefistofeles | haha | 02:19 |
LjL | mefistofeles, yes, specifically covering their asses | 02:19 |
mefistofeles | (yeah, I found that curious as well) | 02:19 |
penny_ | literally a neet im not kidding | 02:19 |
LjL | but what's the actual difference between my home oven and... an oven? | 02:20 |
graphine | i need to look neet up in urban dictionary lol | 02:20 |
penny_ | not in education employment or training | 02:20 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i mean, that's a reasonable thing of them to say in case my house catches fire from their method and i sue them. but medically? | 02:20 |
mefistofeles | LjL: virus load on them? :P | 02:20 |
LjL | mefistofeles, if 70° kills most of it, it kills most of it | 02:20 |
penny_ | in japan they call them hikkikihori graphine | 02:20 |
LjL | mefistofeles, there may be bacterial load if anything | 02:20 |
graphine | hm | 02:20 |
mefistofeles | if the oven kills X% but you have a huge load, and you don't disinfect the oven, etc. | 02:21 |
penny_ | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikikomori | 02:21 |
penny_ | Hikikomori i mean | 02:21 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:02 UTC: Coronavirus live news: WHO sees 'worrying spike' in Middle East as global cases pass one million: Donald Trump tests negative; 6.7m more Americans sign up for unemployment benefits; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 02:21 |
mefistofeles | I think it's still pretty controversial, to say the least | 02:21 |
graphine | you are like that penny_ ? | 02:22 |
penny_ | i go outside but im close to that | 02:22 |
LjL | mefistofeles, virus foodborne infections are *very* rare, the WHO says so! (no really, i read a WHO document saying that to reassure people about food deliveries). they say most of them are bacterial. i assume that's partly because viruses can't just go replicating in my oven, while bacteria potentially cold. but still, an oven is a pretty life-hostile environment, although sure, some living beings will survive just about anything | 02:22 |
graphine | interesting penny_ | 02:22 |
penny_ | im not just in my room all day but i basically just leave the house to go for a walk or get groceries | 02:22 |
graphine | just like it that way? | 02:22 |
penny_ | i... have problems with work and school | 02:23 |
graphine | psychologically? | 02:23 |
penny_ | i dont mind it but it's not fair to my parents | 02:23 |
mefistofeles | LjL: sure, but still, they don't recommend your home oven... and you couldn't just take only the recommendations they made that suits your point :) | 02:23 |
penny_ | i can never keep a job or finish a semester i get overwhelmed | 02:24 |
graphine | you mean because they pay your life penny_ ? | 02:24 |
penny_ | yeah mainly and the strain on their relationship | 02:24 |
graphine | they created you so i guess they can deal with that | 02:24 |
penny_ | its not so bad they can afford it | 02:25 |
penny_ | i live very simply | 02:25 |
LjL | mefistofeles, actually for the purpose of deciding what to do, i'm definitely going to distinguish between an ass-covering disclaimer and authorities making statements that have proven contradictory at the very least. as to giving others advice... many of them will reuse masks without even *attempting* to disinfect them, so i really don't see a need to go further than stating what i think is more likely. | 02:25 |
graphine | there you go penny_ | 02:25 |
penny_ | ur so understanding graphine ! | 02:25 |
graphine | i just try to at least view things from a different angle | 02:25 |
penny_ | a good way to be | 02:26 |
LjL | pepee, got any solid references on homemade masks (the right kinds, at least) being at least better than no masks? | 02:26 |
Dan[m]1 | !covid USA | 02:26 |
CoronaBot | USA: Global rank: #1, cases: 244,433 (+29,430), fatalities: 6,063 (+961), active cases: 227,967, total recovered: 10,403, in a serious condition: 5,421. Mortality: 2.48%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 738.0, deaths/1M: 18.0. Case rate: 26,473/day, death rate: 1,049/day, 1st case: -. | 02:26 |
graphine | how old are you penny_ | 02:26 |
penny_ | 27 | 02:26 |
graphine | man than you seriously dont have to worry | 02:26 |
mefistofeles | if people are not wearing the masks properly (as many empirical data suggests) I think they do more harm than good, so maybe not recommending them is a good thing (?) | 02:27 |
Xeon3D | !covid Portugal | 02:27 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: I saw some great mask instructions the other day. I'll see if I can dig it up | 02:27 |
CoronaBot | Portugal: Global rank: #16, cases: 9,034 (+783), fatalities: 209 (+22), active cases: 8,757, total recovered: 68, in a serious condition: 230. Mortality: 2.31%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 886.0, deaths/1M: 20.0. Case rate: 808/day, death rate: 27/day, 1st case: -. | 02:27 |
graphine | what do you like to do penny_ ? | 02:27 |
penny_ | i think my parents would mind more if the house hadn't increased in value 5x over the last 20 years | 02:27 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, well, not instructions per se (although yes, i could use them) but actual papers/studies trying to show that masks are better than no masks, against viruses in general or even better coronaviruses in particular | 02:27 |
penny_ | we got super lucky it's nuts | 02:27 |
tinwhiskers | ooohhhhh | 02:28 |
penny_ | oh well i like to hike and read news articles and other stuff and irc and watch youtube vids i guess | 02:28 |
penny_ | do some simple cooking | 02:28 |
graphine | thats lots | 02:28 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, in particular, pepee could probably use instructions, though. he's putting together a lot of material on that | 02:28 |
penny_ | its not a bad life | 02:29 |
graphine | some older people here spend halfof the day reading the newspaper in the public library if it is open | 02:29 |
graphine | i guess if you really want to read the washington post or so you will need the whole day | 02:30 |
penny_ | i live like a retired 27 year old | 02:30 |
graphine | some people have that wish | 02:30 |
graphine | you already do | 02:31 |
graphine | GR8! | 02:31 |
tinwhiskers | pepee: well, I liked these instructions, seemed really simple and ended up looking pretty stylin'. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUasSmReIVo | 02:31 |
penny_ | it's only because of the tension with my parents that it's a problem and the guilt i feel | 02:31 |
tinwhiskers | Now I feel I must go fishing in the rain. | 02:31 |
penny_ | otherwise im not complaining | 02:31 |
graphine | what guilt in which way penny_ ? | 02:31 |
penny_ | i think ive said enough for this channel ok | 02:32 |
graphine | ok | 02:32 |
graphine | too private | 02:32 |
penny_ | and way off topic people are here for corona news | 02:32 |
graphine | as far as what i have heard just stop feeling guilty | 02:33 |
graphine | ok | 02:33 |
tinwhiskers | Penelope, is that you? Get off the computer and go to your room! | 02:33 |
graphine | i am quiet now too than | 02:33 |
penny_ | xD | 02:33 |
Dan[m]1 | Where does coronabot get its stats from? | 02:34 |
tinwhiskers | Dan[m]1: they come from offloop.net/covid19h/unconfirmed.csv, which is compiled from several aggregators | 02:35 |
ThomCat[m] | <Dan[m]1 "Where does coronabot get its sta"> https://offloop.net/covid19/ | 02:35 |
tinwhiskers | oh, wait. CoronaBot might not use those ones. I lose track of bots. | 02:35 |
marchelzo | riddle me this | 02:44 |
marchelzo | assuming the IFR is roughly the same in every developed country | 02:45 |
marchelzo | the relationship between deaths/day and current # of infected should be as well | 02:45 |
marchelzo | actually not current # of infected, # of infected ~2 weeks ago | 02:48 |
marchelzo | but anyway | 02:48 |
marchelzo | SK had 9 deaths in one day, and 2 weeks earlier they had 7100 infected | 02:50 |
marchelzo | yesterday the US had ~1k deaths; that would suggest that two weeks ago, they had 793,650 infected | 02:51 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:51 UTC: Australia news: Australia coronavirus live updates: Queenslanders wake up to stricter border controls as Australian cases surpass 5,100 - latest news — from r/WorldNews at 00:51: "Shoot them dead": Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte orders police and military to kill citizens who defy coronavirus lockdown → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 02:55 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Trudeau: Supplies for Canada diverted to U.S. (10255 votes) | https://redd.it/ftr99i | 02:55 |
LjL | marchelzo, the IFR is not going to be the same every "developed" country i'm afraid, because the word "developed" doesn't automatically result in respirators. but i suspect you may not be wrong about the US having many, many more infected than officially recorded. their curve is so steep it looks like they have a lot to catch up with. | 02:58 |
LjL | s/respirators/ventilators/ | 02:58 |
marchelzo | they haven't run out of ventilators yet so there's no reason to suspect the IFR will be significantly higher currently | 02:58 |
LjL | marchelzo, but as to the former point, South Korea has around 12 hospital beds per 1k people, while the US has less than 3... and counting... downwards. | 02:59 |
marchelzo | afaik USA has the most ICU beds per capita in the world | 02:59 |
LjL | marchelzo, NYC is applying protocols that are already very out of the ordinary. i don't think Korea ever decided they wouldn't resuscitate patients. | 02:59 |
LjL | i don't have data on ICU beds outside of Europe | 02:59 |
twomoon | ljl i really thought we had the best medical system in the world, until this virus thing happened | 03:00 |
LjL | but there are many patients in non-ICU beds who die without proper assistance, anyway | 03:00 |
twomoon | i guess we were all brainwashed | 03:00 |
marchelzo | nobody in the US has died because of lack of medical resources yet | 03:00 |
LjL | twomoon, uh, well, if you really thought that... yes, you most definitely were, because any European i know would laugh at that claim. unless we are brainwashed ;) | 03:00 |
twomoon | ventilators actually aren't doing much btw. it's the gov's way of providing a metric of success, albeit kind of a twisted one. it's easier to manufacture ventilators at this point than test kits, which is what we really need. once you're on a ventilator you only have a 30% chance of survival | 03:01 |
LjL | marchelzo, if you say so. earlier it was stated that it is now policy in NYC not to send people who have cardiac arrest to hospital unless they can be resuscitated in place by paramedics. maybe this policy is in *anticipation* of lack of resources, and not current lack, but there's no reason for people not to have already died due to it | 03:01 |
LjL | it's easier to manufacture ventilators at this point than test kits ← this... no. just no. | 03:02 |
sYN4P515 | Dan[m]1 CoronaBot uses https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ | 03:02 |
twomoon | is it bullshit ljl? | 03:02 |
LjL | twomoon, yes, most definitely. tests are widely available, although the CDC messing up the original tests certainly slowed them down in the US. that doesn't mean they're difficult to makw now | 03:03 |
twomoon | marchelzo: i think you are wrong. we have seen deaths due to lack of test kits. that's a medical resource, albeit kind of a long tail one | 03:03 |
LjL | twomoon, as to ventilators being useless, you have a 50% chance of survival, roughly, the 30% figure being projected longer-term survival, which i would be more wary on... anyway, this is basically 30% of the bulk of the people who would otherwise die (the "critical" patients), so if you're actually trying to save anyone at all, well, those are the ones to try saving. | 03:03 |
marchelzo | twomoon: how do you figure? | 03:04 |
penny_ | 0.2% death rate for 20-40 year olds https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ | 03:04 |
Dan[m]1 | sYN4P515: Thankyou! | 03:04 |
marchelzo | penny_: >last updated february 29 >uses naive CFR calculation | 03:05 |
twomoon | that's a good point ljl | 03:05 |
twomoon | nevermind marchelzo | 03:05 |
penny_ | shit | 03:05 |
twomoon | your question is too short to bait me into a debate | 03:05 |
twomoon | you seem like an apathetic debater | 03:05 |
marchelzo | i'm not trying to debate i'm just curious why you think anybody died due to a lack of tests | 03:06 |
marchelzo | if you can't breathe, you go to the hospital. doesn't matter if it's from covid-19 or bacterial pneumonia. | 03:06 |
twomoon | if they had been able to test more i think we wouldn't have seen those early deaths in seattle for example | 03:07 |
LjL | testing is diagnostic, and a correct diagnosis is the first step toward treatment. it seems very clear from the extremely steep case curve in the US that testing is/was extremely lacking during the initial few weeks, and is barely catching up now. it is widely accepted that if you can't diagnose someone, chances they'll die will be higher | 03:07 |
twomoon | i mean they would have screened more people at airports etc | 03:07 |
twomoon | then they would have started screening randomly in cities with international airports | 03:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +560 cases (now 1015727), +1 deaths (now 53186), +17 recoveries (now 212035) since 36 minutes ago — Bolivia: +9 cases (now 132), +1 deaths (now 9) since 36 minutes ago — Haiti: +2 cases (now 18) since 36 minutes ago | 03:08 |
twomoon | it all boils down to a lack of test kits | 03:08 |
marchelzo | that's not a lack of test kits, it's a lack of foresight | 03:08 |
LjL | and yes, of course there is that, too, testing and contact tracing: it has proven effective in other countries, and there is reason to believe it would have been effective in any country, had it been pursued aggressively enough, and *early* enough | 03:08 |
LjL | marchelzo, well, they also didn't have test kits, though. if your argument is "it's not the lack of test kits, it's the fact they didn't think of making test kits in time"... well, okay, i'll take it. | 03:09 |
marchelzo | no, i mean they could have prevented those deaths without test kits | 03:09 |
marchelzo | we could have had a warehouse full of test kits at that time and they still would have let people into nursing homes and let people into the country without quarantine | 03:10 |
marchelzo | without test kits you can still quarantine people for a few days, take their temperature, do a chest CT, test for influenza to rule that out, etc. | 03:10 |
dzho | who is going to do this? | 03:11 |
dzho | and who is going to stand for that without tests to back it up? | 03:11 |
PlanckWalk | The focus on PCR confirmed cases is very dangerous. | 03:11 |
LjL | marchelzo, okay, well, what is your objection to my diagnosis argument? | 03:11 |
dzho | before the breakout, that is | 03:11 |
marchelzo | LjL: there's no covid-19 specific treatment anyway, i really don't think a diagnosis helps very much even though in general in medicine making a diagnosis is very important | 03:13 |
marchelzo | especially back in jan/feb when we were even more confused about how to treat covid-19 | 03:13 |
twomoon | we don't know what some governmental organization would have done if they had had more test kits. my thought is they still would have avoided testing people at airports because it's too slow. but they probably would have started randomly testing people in cities much earlier | 03:13 |
LjL | there are COVID-19 specific treatments, a few of them, even though few of them have passed rigorous clinical trials yet. but they are being used in the honest belief they may be helpful. | 03:14 |
marchelzo | they weren't being used in the US back when they had no tests | 03:14 |
twomoon | what is PCR PlanckWalk ? | 03:15 |
PlanckWalk | Polymerase chain reaction, the basis of these test kits you hear about on news | 03:15 |
marchelzo | also, the chinese diagnosed a large proportion of their cases clinically without ever doing a PCR test, it's not very hard if they're symptomatic | 03:15 |
twomoon | hmm....testing for coronavirus by ruling influenza (and other viruses). that's actually pretty smart i didn't think of that | 03:16 |
PlanckWalk | The main benefit of PCR test is detecting before people are symptomatic. | 03:16 |
PlanckWalk | But nearly everywhere in the world, they limit tests only to people who are symptomatic (and lots of other conditions as well) | 03:17 |
twomoon | what do you call that...testing by elimination? | 03:17 |
PlanckWalk | There's some benefit in hospitals for treating severe cases too | 03:17 |
twomoon | yes it's unfortunate that the entire world kinda had this bottleneck of testing | 03:18 |
jacklsw | %data malaysia | 03:18 |
Brainstorm | jacklsw: In all areas, Malaysia, there are 3116 cases, 50 deaths (1.6% of cases), 767 recoveries as of 18 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Malaysia for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 6.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 03:18 |
twomoon | south korea probably had a testing bottleneck but they made their limited test kits go farther with contact tracing | 03:18 |
marchelzo | i read somewhere that china set up screening clinics all over the place in wuhan where you would go and get tested for influenza, and then if negative they'd do a chest CT. if it showed ground-glass opacities in line w/ other covid-19 patients, then they would do an actual PCR test | 03:18 |
marchelzo | to save test kits | 03:18 |
twomoon | that's pretty smart because CT scans are cheap | 03:19 |
twomoon | and also rapid | 03:19 |
LjL | twomoon, if Korea of all places had a testing bottleneck, then man, everyone else must have had *a heck* of a testing bottleneck. | 03:19 |
graphine | take good care guys | 03:19 |
graphine | i am off | 03:19 |
graphine | stay healthy | 03:19 |
LjL | twomoon, Korea is the country that did the most test per capita in the world, i believe | 03:19 |
twomoon | i don't know of South Korea had a bottleneck, but they acted as if they did. in my mind, contact tracing is independently helpful, but you can't deny that it helps your test kits go farther if you have that bottleneck | 03:20 |
LjL | well, correction, apparently that's Italy now | 03:21 |
twomoon | wow, italy did well | 03:21 |
LjL | twomoon, what makes you say they acted as if they did? they had drive-through testing that anyone could get, even without symptoms | 03:21 |
twomoon | i feel like emigrating there now | 03:21 |
twomoon | oh ok i'm sorry i forgot about that factoid ljl | 03:22 |
LjL | twomoon, no, Italy didn't do well, Italy tested tons of people because Italy has tons of cases. Korea was testing many more until, you know, they kind of stopped having a slew of new cases | 03:22 |
LjL | Korea was arguably *the* country that tested most aggressively, perhaps excluding some much smaller countries | 03:22 |
LjL | the fact that they have done fewer tests in total *by now* is mainly due to them having it seemingly under control by now | 03:22 |
twomoon | you can argue they used contact tracing in order to have a reason to utilize more test kits | 03:22 |
twomoon | so my argument is already up in smoke | 03:23 |
LjL | twomoon, i don't know what made you make that argument in the first place, since South Korea has been widely praised for testing a lot :P | 03:23 |
twomoon | i was just trying to hard to explain to people my belief that contact tracing can save test kits by using them more judiciously | 03:24 |
twomoon | but i guess my argument is vaporized already | 03:24 |
LjL | twomoon, anyway, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-million shows that (apart from that obviously sketchy three-point graph for France) Italy only passed South Korea in number of tests per capita on 29 March, i.e. when Italy was at some... well... VERY MANY cases (i'll check), while South Korea was slowly rising from 7000 to 9000 or so | 03:24 |
PlanckWalk | It's true, but you need very widespread screening as well | 03:24 |
LjL | twomoon, contact tracing is very important but not really to save testing kits. it's important because it's important, it lets you be one step ahead of the virus, ideally, instead of one step behind. that's how you stop epidemics if you can do it early enough and aggressively enough | 03:25 |
PlanckWalk | You need to catch cases that slip through the tracign net | 03:25 |
twomoon | i like the idea of testing for influenza and then giving a CT scan | 03:25 |
twomoon | that's actually pretty smart | 03:25 |
LjL | i'm pretty sure unless you're very short of tests because you're already in full-blown Italy phase, a PCR test is cheaper than a CT scan | 03:26 |
twomoon | CT scans don't have the lag though | 03:26 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:06 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths top 52,800 as infection numbers cross a million — from r/WorldNews at 01:06: Trial drug, which can significantly block early stages of COVID-19 in engineered human tissues, found at University of British Columbia Lab → https://is.gd/LHfprb | 03:26 |
twomoon | and i also doubt CT scans are expensive except in the US where they upcharge like crazy | 03:26 |
LjL | twomoon, CT scans have to be interpreted by a competent person too | 03:27 |
twomoon | yeah but i suspect that wouldn't be much of a bottleneck | 03:27 |
LjL | i suspect there would be | 03:27 |
twomoon | (assuming they got their shit together) | 03:27 |
LjL | i mean, China has done that for a reason, but i don't think the reason was "they don't have a bottleneck"... the reason was "they do have a bottleneck, but hey, our PCR testing has already hit a bottleneck, so we can pursue an alternative road at the same time, to have two parallel bottlenecks instead of one" | 03:28 |
LjL | which still results in more people somehow tested, which is good. but that doesn't mean a CT scan is preferable to a PCR test per se | 03:28 |
twomoon | what's the false positive or false negative rate of PCR testing | 03:30 |
LjL | i think both are generally pretty low, but testing quality varies widely with this thing... in the US, the CDC was insisting on doing all the testing at first, but since tons of labs are doing them now, i doubt there is much of a standard | 03:33 |
twomoon | is it better to do PCR on blood or on mucus? | 03:34 |
LjL | for SARS-COV-2 the test is generally done at the back of your throat, through your nose, in an unpleasant place that has a high concentration of the virus | 03:37 |
LjL | i'm not sure if blood may contain even more, but probably not, and in any case if no one has seen any reason so far to use blood, i guess the throat swab is fine | 03:37 |
LjL | antibody tests on the other hand will have to be done on blood, but those, while being used in some places, haven't been really validated yet | 03:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +633 cases (now 245066), +5 deaths (now 6075) since an hour ago — Bolivia: +9 cases (now 132), +1 deaths (now 9) since an hour ago — California, US: +189 cases (now 11027), +5 deaths (now 239) since an hour ago | 03:38 |
LjL | dTal, clearly i do need to sort these numbers. i took the lazy was because most of the time (?) they seemed to come out in order of amounts of new cases on their own | 03:38 |
jbjllk | https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/ | 03:40 |
twomoon | have you heard anything about gargling several times a day to kill the virus if it is spawning in the throat most readily? | 03:40 |
LjL | twomoon, i've heard of it. i've also read about it being debunked, but that didn't particularly surprise me. | 03:42 |
twomoon | have you started any routines like gargling ljl? | 03:42 |
twomoon | anything at all that you are doing differently to improve hygiene/health | 03:43 |
twomoon | aside from vitamins and diet | 03:43 |
marchelzo | u wanna prevent covid-19 infection? | 03:43 |
marchelzo | consider this | 03:44 |
LjL | twomoon, no, because i have no reason to think any of those things have any effectiveness | 03:44 |
marchelzo | a cohort of 2500 cancer patients in france being treated with methylene blue has had zero covid-19 infections. the probability of that just happening by chance is less than 1% | 03:45 |
marchelzo | 75mg tid | 03:45 |
LjL | on the other hand, i'm staying at home and going out with an FFP2 mask (or best i can find, anyway) when i do need to go out | 03:45 |
LjL | i'm pretty sure that works better than gargling :P | 03:45 |
marchelzo | i think gargling would work if you use like 80% alcohol, mouthwash wouldn't destroy the virus afaik | 03:45 |
LjL | i'm not really sure you will reach all the parts of your throat where the virus thrives unless you're like a gargling pro or something | 03:46 |
twomoon | is methylene blue a common chemotherapy med? | 03:46 |
jbjllk | moonshine | 03:46 |
twomoon | ljl are you isolating from the rest of your family? | 03:47 |
LjL | marchelzo, where can i read this methylene blue paper/report? | 03:47 |
LjL | twomoon, no, i live with them, that would be rather unfeasible. | 03:47 |
twomoon | i'm very interested in this report marchelzo | 03:47 |
marchelzo | https://riviste.fupress.net/index.php/subs/article/view/888/548 | 03:47 |
jacklsw | gargling with 80% alcohol, hmm TIL | 03:47 |
pepee | LjL, tinwhiskers regarding masks: the studies I've seen assume the masks are being worn correctly, i.e., well sealed | 03:47 |
pepee | studies related to materials... | 03:48 |
twomoon | ljl try to limit sodium to reduce your BP | 03:48 |
marchelzo | CQ and HCQ are derivatives of methylene blue; I imagine they're equally effective but they key thing is that these people were already taking this daily before the outbreak | 03:49 |
pepee | I've got a surgical mask that has a small piece of metallic wire so that it fits well in the nose | 03:49 |
marchelzo | antivirals are legit if you start them immediately | 03:49 |
pepee | https://academic.oup.com/annweh/article/54/7/789/202744 mentions scarfs as good alternatives | 03:50 |
jbjllk | moonshine kills germs | 03:50 |
LjL | marchelzo, however, i think those things are quite dangerous to take... worth the risk if you have COVID-19, but unless you also had some other thing that required them, using them prophylactically could be a little... non-risk/benefit-worthy? | 03:50 |
jbjllk | no cases here | 03:50 |
pepee | a 100% polyester scarf... from walmart >The filtration performance of the towels (Aquis, Pinzon, and Pem America) and one scarf (Walmart) against <100 nm size monodisperse aerosol particles was relatively better than the other fabric materials. | 03:50 |
marchelzo | also that french guy who did the original HCQ trial has been keeping stats updated on his hospital's website. of the 1677 patients who received HCQ + Z-pack for ≥ 3 days, 2 died. | 03:51 |
marchelzo | LjL: i think the safety profiles differ for each one. afaik methylene blue just causes discolored urine/feces and eyes or something | 03:52 |
marchelzo | and tons of people take HCQ daily for lupus | 03:52 |
twomoon | what is hcq | 03:53 |
marchelzo | hydroxychloroquine | 03:53 |
twomoon | never heard of this chemo drug | 03:53 |
twomoon | oh | 03:53 |
LjL | marchelzo, well, it's suggestive. although trials about CQ and HCQ so far have been a bit inconclusive i think | 03:53 |
LjL | i mean, some have had positive results, but others showed no benefit. but i should read that review better... or at all, instead of just skimming through it | 03:53 |
marchelzo | because they don't work at all for severe patients | 03:54 |
marchelzo | it's all about timing | 03:54 |
pepee | you guys talking about the methylene blue study? | 03:54 |
marchelzo | yes | 03:54 |
pepee | aha | 03:54 |
pepee | seems really interesting, though I'm not one to say much about that | 03:55 |
marchelzo | personally i'd take a moderate-high dose of hcq every 5 days or so and at the first sign of any symptoms i'd start taking it daily | 03:57 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:43 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Wuhan risk remains high, says party chief, as Trump blasts states: Donald Trump tests negative; 6.7m more Americans sign up for unemployment benefits; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 03:57 |
marchelzo | i'd rather get the disease and give my immune system enough time to produce antibodies and just use antivirals to avoid having it get out of control | 03:58 |
marchelzo | instead of preventing infection out right | 03:58 |
jbjllk | Artificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal | 04:05 |
LjL | jbjllk, what? | 04:06 |
pyna | in deep impact president morgan freeman had million people caves ready before the press conference | 04:07 |
pyna | at least reality is still at least slightly more plausible than the core | 04:10 |
AimHere | The movies do seem to overestimate the disaster response of America's government | 04:10 |
LjL | it's almost as if they are partly propaganda movies for the US, both internal and foreign western market... | 04:10 |
AimHere | I dunno. That's the military movies. I suspect that Hollywood disaster movies are more naive about organization rather than propaganda tools | 04:11 |
pyna | contact even built a whole other N billion dollar secret volcano base in case some dude with a pipe bomb | 04:14 |
twomoon | marchelzo lemme know when you find an appropriate prophylactic | 04:16 |
marchelzo | u can buy hcq and methylene blue at pet stores lol | 04:16 |
twomoon | probably low grade | 04:17 |
marchelzo | mb is pretty uncontrolled. a bunch of those nootropic/supplement sites claim to sell it but idk what the quality would be like | 04:19 |
pyna | forsythia? | 04:20 |
cOrOnICk[20] | a friend tells me that people that died from vaping actually had covid19 | 04:22 |
bin_bash | no | 04:22 |
cOrOnICk[20] | yes | 04:23 |
bin_bash | no, it's not true. | 04:23 |
cOrOnICk[20] | says who? | 04:23 |
bin_bash | WHO, CDC, FDA | 04:23 |
cOrOnICk[20] | were?= | 04:24 |
yuriwho | cOrOnICk[20]: stop your CT trolling pls | 04:24 |
cOrOnICk[20] | trolling? | 04:25 |
bin_bash | https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2019/p1028-first-analysis-lung-injury-deaths.html | 04:25 |
bin_bash | https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/lung-injuries-associated-use-vaping-products | 04:25 |
bin_bash | https://www.yalemedicine.org/conditions/evali/ | 04:25 |
jbjllk | vaping kills by it self | 04:26 |
cOrOnICk[20] | they didnt test for covid | 04:27 |
bin_bash | 0/10 | 04:27 |
cOrOnICk[20] | “I screen all of my patients, any child over age 12, since [vaping] can exacerbate underlying conditions like asthma,” | 04:29 |
BobCat | those vaping deaths were caused by vitamin e in the bootleg thc carts | 04:30 |
yuriwho | vitamin E acetate | 04:30 |
BobCat | yes | 04:30 |
BobCat | and these idiot 12 year olds pass around their Juuls and infect their whole crew | 04:31 |
yuriwho | never thought about that | 04:31 |
aeth | I'm so glad that I was incredibly uncool at 12 years old. The only thing I was doing was IRC. | 04:31 |
BobCat | I was considering taking one away from a kid and his gang even before all this | 04:32 |
BobCat | addicted tweens are no fun | 04:32 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:22 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: cruise ships on their way as Australian cases surpass 5,100 – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 02:22: China reports new swine fever cases in Gansu province → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 04:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Trinidad and Tobago: +3 cases (now 97), +1 deaths (now 6) since an hour ago — Cambodia: +4 cases (now 114), +1 recoveries (now 35) since an hour ago — El Salvador: +5 cases (now 46) since 2 hours ago | 04:50 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:34 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: Scott Morrison to give update as death toll rises to 26 – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 04:50 |
LjL | err, obviously i should sort high-to-low, not low-to-high *sigh* | 04:50 |
LjL | yuriwho, have a laugh https://www.longdom.org/open-access/sunspot-cycle-minima-and-pandemics-the-case-for-vigilance-2332-2519-1000159.pdf | 04:52 |
yuriwho | heh, one of the authors is from the Institute for the Study of Panspermia and Astroeconomics, Gifu, Japan | 05:02 |
yuriwho | I'm gonna watch some mindless youtube videos, I've been always-on for a month. Need a break | 05:04 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Coronavirus cases pass 1 million worldwide. Doubling in less than a week. (10674 votes) | https://redd.it/ftt3gi | 05:07 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:09 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: Scott Morrison gives update as death toll rises to 27 – latest updates — from r/WorldNews at 03:09: Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro suggests a day of fasting and prayer to get rid of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 05:26 |
JoinMe | #data USA | 05:30 |
JoinMe | %data USA | 05:30 |
Brainstorm | JoinMe: In all areas, US, there are 245088 cases, 6075 deaths (2.5% of cases), 10403 recoveries as of 12 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 05:30 |
jbjllk | Artificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal | 05:33 |
Amsterdam | hey | 05:37 |
Amsterdam | someone of colombia? | 05:38 |
dunnp | colombia | 05:39 |
Amsterdam | hey dunnp, whereŕe you from? | 05:41 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Twitter deletes 20,000 fake accounts linked to Saudi, Serbian and Egyptian governments (10055 votes) | https://redd.it/ftrg80 | 05:41 |
dunnp | USA | 05:41 |
Amsterdam | how are you with this situation? | 05:42 |
Amsterdam | COVID-19 | 05:42 |
Amsterdam | in USA | 05:42 |
dunnp | not great clearly | 05:43 |
jbjllk | Artificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal | 05:43 |
dunnp | jbjllk: what? | 05:44 |
Amsterdam | there is a theory that this virus is a biological weapon | 05:45 |
jbjllk | COVID-19 | 05:45 |
Amsterdam | yes | 05:45 |
Amsterdam | ... maybe | 05:45 |
dunnp | this channel is not very welcoming to conspiracy theories | 05:45 |
Amsterdam | itś true, because it's the opinion or idea of jdjllk | 05:46 |
dunnp | activated by an external signal - thats wild | 05:48 |
jacklsw | or maybe it's work of god to cleanse the world | 05:48 |
jacklsw | humans get too proud so god wants us to know our places | 05:48 |
Amsterdam | can you explain this jdjllk | 05:48 |
Amsterdam | please | 05:48 |
jacklsw | like the tower of babel | 05:48 |
jacklsw | haha | 05:49 |
dunnp | jacklsw: \s | 05:49 |
jacklsw | ok let's get back to covid-19 chat | 05:49 |
dunnp | LjL: fwiw that is a fake journal | 05:50 |
berndj | it isn't deadly enough to meaningfully "cleanse the world" | 05:50 |
jacklsw | then they will say god still loves us | 05:50 |
vaak | https://foldingathome.org | 05:51 |
jacklsw | worst cleansing was noah's time, only kept a pair (male-female) of each species | 05:51 |
jacklsw | :D | 05:51 |
berndj | LjL, haha, i've always found panspermia an intriguing hypothesis but i find that instance of it a bit too anthropomorphized | 05:51 |
berndj | like panspermic viruses wouldn't single out humans for pandemics | 05:52 |
jbjllk | Artificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal | 05:52 |
berndj | we'd need to compare data with the cat-WHO dog-CDC and bat-NHS | 05:52 |
dunnp | jbjllk: are you a bot? | 05:53 |
Amsterdam | It seems | 05:53 |
jbjllk | are you | 05:53 |
dunnp | you've pasted the same line multiple times now | 05:54 |
dunnp | I for one welcome our remote control virus overlords | 05:54 |
Amsterdam | I think it's better to ignore it | 05:54 |
jbjllk | https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/ | 05:54 |
Amsterdam | hahahaah | 05:55 |
Amsterdam | bot detected | 05:55 |
jbjllk | better | 05:55 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: (UK) Surgeon who was kicked out by his landlady over coronavirus infection fears sets up successful website matching vacant rooms with NHS workers in need (10604 votes) | https://redd.it/ftvmf6 | 05:59 |
IronY | Masks have been in the mail over two weeks | 06:09 |
IronY | but you know, my Hydro(Electric) bill | 06:09 |
IronY | that thing didnt even miss a day | 06:10 |
IronY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozmh40wwAGc | 06:11 |
berndj | gotta keep the economy moving! | 06:11 |
berndj | i'm beginning to wonder if my country (south africa) is going to be the next "what's up with germany?" story | 06:24 |
berndj | ~1500 cases, 5 deaths, 50 recoveries | 06:25 |
tinwhiskers | that's impressive alright | 06:25 |
berndj | most other countries (especially in the ramp-up period) seem to have more deaths than recoveries | 06:25 |
PlanckWalk | Recovery criteria are all over the place | 06:26 |
IronY | all our numbers are bullshit | 06:26 |
IronY | watched how we are counting dead today | 06:26 |
IronY | well, some countries | 06:26 |
tinwhiskers | finland is no that dissimilar to SA | 06:26 |
berndj | i *think* ours are "you test negative twice in a row after having been positive" | 06:26 |
IronY | spoiler alert, if you die of anything with covid 19, u died of covid 19 | 06:26 |
IronY | if you die of a heart attack and u had covid 19 for 10 mins | 06:27 |
IronY | u died of covid19 | 06:27 |
IronY | berndj: Our is 14 days after first symptom or 24 hours after last symptom which ever is greatest | 06:27 |
IronY | No test required! | 06:27 |
berndj | we did have a case who died apparently primarily due to a comorbidity, who happened to have covid19 too, she got tallied as a "covid19 death" iirc | 06:28 |
tinwhiskers | wow | 06:28 |
IronY | the tldr is none of the numbers are probably correct | 06:28 |
IronY | and even more incorrect when compared to other countries numbers | 06:28 |
berndj | but surely they're at least internally consistent within a country? | 06:29 |
PlanckWalk | Nope :( | 06:29 |
berndj | oh, criteria changing over time too? | 06:29 |
IronY | ^ | 06:29 |
IronY | It is a moving target | 06:29 |
berndj | oh well that sucks | 06:29 |
PlanckWalk | That, as well as states/provinces/regions having different criteria | 06:29 |
berndj | so we really can't learn much from those covid19 maps can we? | 06:29 |
PlanckWalk | (And varying access to tests) | 06:29 |
berndj | yeah we're relatively limited in testing throughput | 06:30 |
berndj | only 3000 tests/day or so, which is better than 300 tests/day sure, but not a 500k/week like germany | 06:31 |
tinwhiskers | berndj: are you in lockdown? Your numbers seem to be tailing off. | 06:31 |
berndj | tinwhiskers, yeah, lockdown started a week ago | 06:31 |
tinwhiskers | only a week ago... weird | 06:31 |
berndj | my guess is that the tailing off has more to do with no more infected travelers returning from overseas than with the lockdown | 06:32 |
tinwhiskers | oh. that might make sense. | 06:32 |
tinwhiskers | You started looking very exponential but then suddenly tailed off just before your lockdown started | 06:33 |
PlanckWalk | Our numbers (Australia) are also slowing due to reduced travellers. | 06:33 |
berndj | yeah, the numbers were completely dominated by returning travelers | 06:33 |
tinwhiskers | but yeah, 5 days of lots of returning people could have done it | 06:34 |
PlanckWalk | One of the testing criteria is having arrived from overseas within past 14 days | 06:34 |
PlanckWalk | That's where most of the tests have been going. | 06:34 |
marchelzo | imo a lot of countries just aren't reporting accurate data at all | 06:35 |
berndj | at what point does it start making sense to do random sampling? it doesn't seem very cost-effective to do when only 0.000001% of your population is infected | 06:35 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: in my opinion the overwhelming majority are honestly reporting, although there may be some systematic problems. | 06:35 |
PlanckWalk | I'd say devoting some fraction to at least symptomatic people negative for cold/flu virus is always worthwhile | 06:35 |
berndj | marchelzo, yeah, i think there's an irony in that countries with much higher numbers than their regional neighbours might actually have fewer infected people but are just testing more | 06:36 |
marchelzo | hong kong has been getting new cases consistently since january and they haven't had a single death in 3 weeks? | 06:36 |
tinwhiskers | similar to germany | 06:36 |
tinwhiskers | (at one point in time) | 06:36 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:23 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus live news Australia: Scott Morrison says lower trajectory of coronavirus infection rate is 'encouraging' – latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 06:37 |
CyberManifest | Since the Coronavirus can *live* on a surface for up to 3 days; wouldn't cigarette smoke kill the virus in the lungs? | 06:40 |
CyberManifest | I mean what kills the virus at room temperature after 3 days? Wouldn't cigarette smoke be caustic enough to kill the virus or at least weaken it for the immune system to take hold? | 06:40 |
tinwhiskers | wishful thinking? | 06:40 |
berndj | CyberManifest, i imagine desiccation is what kills it | 06:40 |
berndj | and/or just random oxidation from the air | 06:41 |
dunnp | CyberManifest: why would smoke kill it? | 06:41 |
CyberManifest | cause it's caustic | 06:41 |
berndj | a virus isn't neatly "alive" in the first place | 06:41 |
CyberManifest | why would oxidation kill it? | 06:41 |
tinwhiskers | there were some hints that smokers might have some prophylactic benefit but if a smoker does get infected the outcome is much worse. | 06:41 |
dunnp | its not particularly caustic | 06:41 |
marchelzo | actually cigarette smoking seems to be associated with both reduced chance of infection and better outcome if you look at the data | 06:42 |
dunnp | otherwise you'd lose your lungs pretty quickly | 06:42 |
berndj | CyberManifest, oxidation eventually breaks the molecules apart | 06:42 |
IronY | marchelzo: yeah, I also read that | 06:42 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: yeah, but if a non smoker suddenly smoked once after being infected could it help | 06:42 |
dunnp | is there a paper that shows this? | 06:42 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: which data is that? | 06:42 |
dunnp | would like to see that | 06:42 |
IronY | marchelzo: but from what I understand in the order of things u wanna be: Non Smoker -> Current Smoker -> Ex Smoker | 06:42 |
IronY | ex smokers have healed lung tissue that is higher in ACE2 | 06:42 |
tinwhiskers | CyberManifest: most likely that will do more harm than good | 06:43 |
CyberManifest | berndj, so why couldn't caustic smoke break the molecules apart? | 06:43 |
tinwhiskers | casutic? | 06:43 |
tinwhiskers | caustic? | 06:43 |
tinwhiskers | why wouldn't it break apart your cells then? | 06:43 |
berndj | CyberManifest, i imagine it could. base-catalysed hydrolysis is a thing after all | 06:44 |
marchelzo | IronY: yes. but imagine what the average years spent smoking is for current smokers. i'm curious how somebody who started a week before contracting the virus would fare | 06:44 |
berndj | your cells might not be as alkaline | 06:44 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers AFAIK it does | 06:44 |
CovidfefeRoey | oh hi | 06:44 |
berndj | if that's what CyberManifest means by "caustic" | 06:44 |
dunnp | marchelzo: link to this data? | 06:44 |
dunnp | I really don't think there would be meaningful destruction of the virus from smoke | 06:45 |
tinwhiskers | I agree | 06:45 |
CyberManifest | berndj: so if I'm infected and I don't usually smoke, hitting a pipe or cigarette once wouldn't help by weakening the virus at all? | 06:45 |
tinwhiskers | that's a huge gamble | 06:46 |
berndj | CyberManifest, i have no idea. in the absence of more solid data my default would be "smoking just makes things worse, especially starting to smoke" | 06:46 |
CyberManifest | I didn't realize oxygen was detriment to it, so should I avoid antioxidants | 06:46 |
marchelzo | tobacco supposedly has antiviral compounds in it | 06:46 |
marchelzo | https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/faluhv/an_exhaustive_lit_search_shows_that_only_585_sars/ | 06:46 |
marchelzo | this guy compiled a list of a bunch of random SARS / COVID-19 data showing that smokers are highly underrepresented | 06:47 |
berndj | CyberManifest, i offered oxidation as a possible killing mechanism for virus on dry surfaces. that might not be the dominant kill mechanism in vivo | 06:47 |
CyberManifest | berndj: yeah, I had assumed that oxygen fed it | 06:47 |
marchelzo | whatever smoking does in the long term makes outcomes worse, and whatever it does in the short term makes outcomes better it seems | 06:48 |
berndj | no, a virus doesn't actually *do* anything outside a host cell, it just sits there and exists. oxygen can only harm it | 06:48 |
marchelzo | long term is probably just COPD + changes in ACE2 expression | 06:48 |
tinwhiskers | so maybe vaping is the soltution | 06:48 |
tinwhiskers | I now have a new conspiracy theory | 06:48 |
berndj | covid19 is a Big Tobacco plot? | 06:49 |
marchelzo | well if it's the antivirals in the tobacco then no | 06:49 |
tinwhiskers | the anitvirals are in the nicotine | 06:49 |
CyberManifest | berndj: so like oxygen doesn't add to it's molecular structure while it's infecting or anything like that? | 06:49 |
tinwhiskers | smokers paradox | 06:49 |
dunnp | marchelzo: i dont see where you can conclude that it makes things better | 06:49 |
marchelzo | dunnp: look at ex-smokers vs. current smokers | 06:50 |
tinwhiskers | only 6.4% of patients were smokers but the general population it's more like 25% | 06:50 |
dunnp | very small numbers | 06:50 |
marchelzo | this is a pretty well known thing, people have been talking about it since SARS | 06:50 |
marchelzo | the underrepresentation, that is | 06:51 |
dunnp | 42% and 21% of ex and current smokers had severe symptomvs vs 14% non | 06:51 |
berndj | CyberManifest, not really. oxygen is bad for *any* biomolecule. it's a pretty reactive substance, so whatever you have is not going to stay unchanged for long in the presence of oxygen unless you're actively repairing / renewing the damage | 06:51 |
tinwhiskers | I'm pretty suspicious that this isn't a cherrypicked study by smokers to make themselves feel better | 06:51 |
CyberManifest | berndj: so do I need to avoid antioxidants like blueberries and green tea? | 06:52 |
marchelzo | yes but consider that the vast majority of current smokers are also ex-smokers. "i used to smoke. i still do, but i used to too" | 06:52 |
marchelzo | dunnp: | 06:52 |
marchelzo | rip mitch | 06:52 |
berndj | CyberManifest, no i don't think so. it isn't going to meaningfully change the oxidation potential in your lungs | 06:52 |
marchelzo | i would conjecture that if you started smoking cigarettes the day you were exposed to the virus you would be improving your prognosis | 06:53 |
tinwhiskers | The higher death rate in males in China was attributed to 50%of males smoking and only 2% of females | 06:53 |
berndj | i think that would be a bad idea. adding more new crap to your lungs they're not used to dealing with doesn't sound smart | 06:53 |
CyberManifest | marchelzo: that's what I was wondering, and then once the Immune system weakened it enough I could quit smoking, right? | 06:53 |
marchelzo | right | 06:54 |
tinwhiskers | this is a terrible idea | 06:54 |
dunnp | this seems like a horrible idea | 06:54 |
marchelzo | it's basically just a shitty OTC antiviral | 06:54 |
dunnp | up your inflamation when you have an infection? | 06:54 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: but that was existing smokers right, like smokers that had already done damage before contraction | 06:54 |
tinwhiskers | this is dangerous advice | 06:54 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: why do you think so? | 06:55 |
berndj | "i just contracted a virus. now i'm going to add smoke inhalation to my lungs' woes" | 06:56 |
tinwhiskers | the numbers you reported don't stack up with the numbers I've seen, where smokers have a higher death rate. | 06:56 |
tinwhiskers | something is fishy, and making a leap that taking up smoking will be beneficial is bad advice | 06:56 |
marchelzo | you realize that medication is also "adding more crap" right? | 06:57 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: smokers do have a higher death rate than non-smokers | 06:57 |
marchelzo | the thread i linked doesn't dispute that | 06:58 |
tinwhiskers | but the numbers you reported showed there were less patients who were smokers | 06:58 |
marchelzo | less patients, yes. but worse outcomes. | 06:58 |
berndj | medication isn't usually smoke particles lodging in your lungs | 06:58 |
CyberManifest | marchelzo: but that's because of existing damage though right? | 06:58 |
marchelzo | i would think so | 06:58 |
tinwhiskers | so there were less patients because many people in china just took up smoking? | 06:58 |
marchelzo | long term smoking and COPD go hand in hand | 06:58 |
tinwhiskers | Why weren't there more infected smokers in line with other data | 06:58 |
dunnp | you cant really make conclusions that they were underrepreseneted from that small study | 06:59 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: i don't follow. smokers being underrepresented has been a thing in pretty much all of the data, even SARS data | 06:59 |
jbjllk | Artificial “disease” agents that can rest harmlessly in victims’ bodies until activated by an external signal | 06:59 |
dunnp | the first report of this only had 140 people | 06:59 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: not in covid-19 data | 07:00 |
berndj | maybe smokers just drop dead in the street and never make it to the hospital | 07:01 |
CyberManifest | berndj: so with oxidation, does temperature matter? I mean would breathing warm air be better than breathing cold air; cause I think I saw data showing that heat seemed to be impactful, i suppose this is why we get a fever, but it also makes sense breaking down the protein shell. So wouldn't warm oxygen be better than cool oxygen? | 07:01 |
dunnp | maybe they lie, maybe smokers died faster | 07:01 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 07:01 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: yes | 07:01 |
tinwhiskers | Where is all the data then? | 07:01 |
marchelzo | dunnp: that thread has links to dozens of reports showing the same thing | 07:01 |
berndj | CyberManifest, yes, higher temperature makes all reaction mechanisms faster. things can slow down if catalysts get deactivated by the higher temperature though | 07:01 |
tinwhiskers | I've only seen things contradicting what you claim, except for that one small study | 07:01 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: which thread? | 07:02 |
berndj | CyberManifest, and i don't believe the air in your lungs is ever substantially different from body temperature | 07:02 |
CyberManifest | berndj: I'm not really following, I just wanna know if I should crank up the thermostat or open my window to let in the cool night air. | 07:03 |
tinwhiskers | CyberManifest: no | 07:03 |
tinwhiskers | open the window if you live with other people | 07:03 |
berndj | CyberManifest, i don't know how all these things interact | 07:03 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: I live alone | 07:03 |
tinwhiskers | then it doesn't really matter | 07:03 |
PlanckWalk | Do whatever keeps the temperature in your room more comfortable | 07:04 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: the reddit thread | 07:04 |
CyberManifest | berndj: well, simply based on logic, from existing findings, it would make sense to turn up the heat instead of open a window | 07:04 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: ah, yeah, realised that. looking | 07:04 |
tinwhiskers | CyberManifest: what do you think raising the temperature will do? | 07:05 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: "Shoot them dead": Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte orders police and military to kill citizens who defy coronavirus lockdown (10499 votes) | https://redd.it/ftx5kg | 07:05 |
sYN4P515 | wow, that's pretty extreme | 07:06 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: weaken it a minuscule amount more than it otherwise would have | 07:06 |
marchelzo | of 7162 COVID-19 patients in the U.S. 165 were ex-smokers, and 96 were current smokers. that's 1.3% of the patients who were current smokers despite 13.7% of adults in the U.S. being current smokers | 07:07 |
marchelzo | that one is pretty irrefutable | 07:07 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: I see a conclusion that says: The calculated RR showed that current smokers were 1.45 times more likely [95% CI: 1.03-2.04] to have severe complications compared to former and never smokers. Current smokers also had a higher mortality rate of 38.5%. | 07:08 |
tinwhiskers | Yet a claim this paper says smoking is beneficial | 07:08 |
marchelzo | yes that's what i've been saying | 07:08 |
dunnp | marchelzo: still need to look at demographics - the early cases were people that traveled a lot and/or were on a cruise ship | 07:08 |
dunnp | which I imagine involves much fewer smokers | 07:08 |
marchelzo | lmao you're really reaching here. it's the same in the chinese data. it's the same everywhere. | 07:09 |
dunnp | I don't think there is a conclusive result | 07:09 |
dunnp | otherwise someone would have published it | 07:09 |
marchelzo | they excluded diamond princess cases and people who flew back to the U.S. from wuhan in that 7162 study | 07:09 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: the claim that only 96 were current smokers out of 7162 patients directly contradicts what I just posted and is so extreme as to be totally ridiculous | 07:10 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: what does it contradict? | 07:11 |
berndj | CyberManifest, it would be my guess too; not because it changes what happens in your lungs, but because it might degrade viruses sitting on countertops etc a little bit faster. but i know nothing about the temperature sensitivity of residence times | 07:11 |
PlanckWalk | marchelzo: Which thread? | 07:12 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: I live alone, and have been pretty much isolated for 4 years, never traveled recently, I ordered a package on the internet, where I think I contracted the virus, or from someone of the once a week times me and my father went to a restaurant to eat. I didn't contract it by traveling; now I'm doing what I can to fight it, boosting my immune system as much as I can by diet, and trying to dete | 07:12 |
CyberManifest | rmine ideas like smoking once or increasing the heat in my apartment to help weaken the virus | 07:12 |
berndj | CyberManifest, i do know that copper kills virus faster than other more inert (for this particular reaction) surfaces like plastic or stainless steel | 07:12 |
CyberManifest | berndj, if it on countertops it should have died / deactivated days ago, I've been issolating myself for like 3 weeks now. | 07:13 |
marchelzo | PlanckWalk: https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/faluhv/an_exhaustive_lit_search_shows_that_only_585_sars/ | 07:13 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews at 04:56 UTC: worldnews: “Coronavirus means that we must now treat China like a hostile state” → https://is.gd/eCy42R | 07:13 |
CyberManifest | berndj: yeah copper is antimicrobial | 07:13 |
tinwhiskers | CyberManifest: do you have a positive test? | 07:13 |
berndj | a virus isn't a microbe though | 07:14 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: I was trying to contribute to flattening the curve, also haven't had a primary Dr. in years and don't have the funds to see one, also with my infection week, I don't want to risk infecting others, especially the health workers on the front lines | 07:14 |
berndj | CyberManifest, you're not going to infect yourself. you could spit on everything in your apartment all day, then touch that and rub it in your eyes and you wouldn't get infected, at least not because of your spit | 07:15 |
CyberManifest | my symptoms aren't severe so I'm staying home as it's been advised | 07:15 |
berndj | what "infection week"? | 07:15 |
CyberManifest | my infection is week not strong | 07:16 |
dunnp | weak | 07:16 |
CyberManifest | yeah that | 07:16 |
CyberManifest | weak* | 07:16 |
berndj | you mean your immune system? | 07:16 |
CyberManifest | no my infection | 07:17 |
CyberManifest | my immune system seems to be mildly strong | 07:17 |
berndj | oh! infected with what? | 07:17 |
CyberManifest | COVID-19 | 07:17 |
berndj | oh? test-confirmed or self-diagnosed? | 07:17 |
jbjllk | have you been yested | 07:17 |
jbjllk | testes | 07:17 |
jbjllk | tested | 07:17 |
berndj | almost! | 07:17 |
CyberManifest | berndj: self-diagnosed, I already explained I was flattening the curve as reccomended | 07:18 |
CovidfefeRoey | Trump got tested again btw | 07:18 |
jbjllk | trump and the cia started this | 07:18 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: history of smoking reduces your chance of contracting COVID-19. if you *do* get COVID-19 your case is more likely to be severe. current smokers have significantly better outcomes than ex-smokers, which suggests that the short-term effects of smoking are actually beneficial. | 07:18 |
CyberManifest | berndj: my symptoms aren't severe enough to be tested | 07:18 |
CovidfefeRoey | CyberManifest: hey you're the first covid-19 infectee I'm interacting with | 07:18 |
CovidfefeRoey | nice to meetcha | 07:18 |
CovidfefeRoey | I am glad that you are feeling better | 07:19 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: where do you think i'm making a mistake? | 07:19 |
CovidfefeRoey | or t least, not bad | 07:19 |
CovidfefeRoey | tinwhiskers: o/ | 07:19 |
jbjllk | cyber started this | 07:19 |
berndj | CyberManifest, if you're a hermit like i am then as long as you stay home i don't think you're a danger to anyone, regardless whether you copen the windows or run an ozone generator inside your apartment | 07:19 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: that thread shows ex-smokers also have better outcomes than the average population (albeit poorer than current smokers) | 07:19 |
marchelzo | where? | 07:20 |
CyberManifest | berndj: yeah I know, but I'm worried about my own health and getting better, sometimes the symptoms come back more pronounced after going away a bit | 07:20 |
CyberManifest | berndj: seems worse at night | 07:20 |
dunnp | CyberManifest: 3 weeks? | 07:21 |
IronY | tinwhiskers: if ur reading the study I read, that is incorrect | 07:21 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: I think I contracted it around the 18th of last month | 07:21 |
IronY | non smokers -> Smokers -> ex smokers | 07:21 |
IronY | in that order | 07:21 |
dunnp | doesn't last that long, does it? | 07:21 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: it's a virus, without a vaccine it can replicate itself indefinitely until antibodies and your immune system can eliminate it. | 07:22 |
tinwhiskers | IronY: I read that in one of the links | 07:23 |
tinwhiskers | Not sure which one now | 07:23 |
dunnp | but people are tending to be better in about 2 weeks | 07:23 |
tinwhiskers | I'll have a better read | 07:23 |
IronY | This is my guess, But I assume has a smoker | 07:23 |
IronY | you have an added barrier of mucas | 07:24 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: perhaps symptoms, they can become a-symptomatic and still spread it, and it would very person to person due to underlaying conditions | 07:24 |
IronY | making it someone likely you can catch a droplet in that, caugh it up, and swallow it into the digestive track | 07:24 |
IronY | somewhat* | 07:24 |
CyberManifest | IronY: Milk would be good for that then | 07:24 |
IronY | CyberManifest: Milk does not coat ur lungs :P | 07:25 |
CyberManifest | IronY: I know, but milk helps produce mucus | 07:25 |
marchelzo | intriguing hypothesis. most people seem to bring up the fact that smoking reduces ACE2 expression and the virus needs to bind to ACE2 to enter a cell | 07:25 |
IronY | yeah its a attack vector decrease | 07:26 |
IronY | basically | 07:26 |
CyberManifest | IronY: plus the added benefit of Vitamin D | 07:26 |
IronY | wait | 07:26 |
IronY | oh shit i thought u just said smoking gave u vit d | 07:26 |
IronY | lol | 07:26 |
CyberManifest | no, milk | 07:26 |
IronY | yeah I caught that lol | 07:26 |
berndj | is it the smoke per se that reduces ACE2 expression or the nicotine? | 07:28 |
CyberManifest | berndj: opening a window helps me feel I can breath better, but the stiffness in my back and rib cage doesn't go away, but warm air seems to shorten breath but help reduce the stiffness and soreness in rib cage and back and such | 07:28 |
IronY | marchelzo: My hypothesis is based on two things, 1: A smokers cough is a productive cough 2: The recent talk around a 'gastrointestinal' strain that seems to be milder | 07:30 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:15 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases could be five to 10 million, says Australia's medical chief: Brendan Murphy says lack of testing means reported figures likely inaccurate; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 07:31 |
CyberManifest | my cough has almost entirely gone away but breathing seems to get shorter off and on through each passing day | 07:32 |
vaak | its the the iceberg | 07:32 |
berndj | CyberManifest, do you mean every day it's shorter than the day before? or just varying throughout the day? | 07:32 |
IronY | CyberManifest: fever? | 07:33 |
CyberManifest | berndj: it's hard to explain, like there is pressure, but sometimes not as much but it returns at night | 07:33 |
IronY | CyberManifest: try lying on ur side | 07:33 |
CyberManifest | IronY: may have had a very very mild fever one night | 07:33 |
CyberManifest | IronY: I have | 07:34 |
CyberManifest | IronY: laying any which way doesn't aleve the shortness of breath | 07:34 |
CyberManifest | er breathing capacity | 07:34 |
CyberManifest | I don't know how to explain it | 07:35 |
IronY | lung capacity | 07:35 |
CyberManifest | it feels like it | 07:35 |
rajrajraj | https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/national/bengaluru-specialist-cured-prince-charles-of-covid-19-ayush-minister-820546.html | 07:35 |
IronY | have you ever had bronchitis/pneumonia? | 07:35 |
CyberManifest | IronY: nope, I used to have asthma when I was young, probably still do but not to the severity of it needing treatment in my older years | 07:36 |
IronY | CyberManifest: Might be worth calling ur GP and getting an inhaler | 07:37 |
CyberManifest | used to take medicine for it as a small child | 07:37 |
CyberManifest | IronY: I don't have a GP | 07:37 |
IronY | no one days, thats the new term for 'call what ever clinic u can call' lol | 07:37 |
IronY | s/days/does | 07:37 |
CyberManifest | IronY: also I don't trust any synthetics while my immune system is attempting to fight off this virus | 07:37 |
IronY | CyberManifest: I would leave that to a doctor | 07:38 |
Painter | Are you in the USA? | 07:38 |
CyberManifest | yes | 07:38 |
vaak | vac tester dude got anti-bodies cnn | 07:38 |
Painter | If you are, you're allowed to get free testing for COVID-19 if you suspect that you have it, if they deem that you require a test (lots of community transmission where you are, or you've traveled) | 07:39 |
marchelzo | CyberManifest: when did symptoms start and how old are you? | 07:39 |
CyberManifest | marchelzo: started around the 18th of last month and I'm 38 | 07:39 |
Painter | If you've had symptoms for that long, chances are that it's something other than COVID, I would guess | 07:39 |
IronY | ^ | 07:40 |
Painter | Usually the symptoms are sudden onset | 07:40 |
CyberManifest | Painter: doubtful, I haven't been sick in years and I've been mostly in isolation for 4 years | 07:40 |
berndj | we still have "family doctors" here, but they don't come to your house anymore | 07:40 |
IronY | berndj: doctors have never come to your house in my entire lifetime | 07:40 |
CyberManifest | Painter: the symptoms were sudden onset | 07:40 |
IronY | lol | 07:40 |
Painter | You could have it in your system for many days before you get symptoms, but once symptoms appear, it's generally a quick onset | 07:41 |
marchelzo | how bad is the shortness of breath? | 07:41 |
Painter | Nor in mine, IR0NMAN | 07:41 |
Painter | oops. I mean IronY | 07:41 |
berndj | IronY, when i was a kid the doctor would routinely come to our house to check me out. old times (1980s) | 07:41 |
jbjllk | http://www.onlinenewspapers.com | 07:41 |
berndj | routinely as in when i was sick, not just for the lulz | 07:42 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: I'm struggling to reconcile that 58% of patients were male among 1099 cases, and that this is attributed to smoking, with the idea that smoking provides and prophylactic benefit. I'm not currently disputing it because there does seem to be evidence to support it, but these two findings don't seem compatible. What am I missing? | 07:42 |
Painter | If you suspect that it's COVID and are having difficulty breathing, call the hospital to ask what you should do | 07:42 |
berndj | IronY, and we're in a time warp, we're 10 years (used to be more) behind the developed world | 07:42 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: i don't think the male prevalence should be attributed to smoking | 07:43 |
CyberManifest | Painter: I never had fever really except mildly once, never had diarrhea, but developed dry cough and significant shortness of breath or diminished lung capacity and had fatigue never got chills though. | 07:43 |
rajrajraj | Did you see my post | 07:43 |
berndj | tinwhiskers, not that i believe this, but it could be that the "natural" affinity is for 80% of patients being male | 07:43 |
tinwhiskers | marchelzo: well, that might explain it. | 07:43 |
IronY | rajrajraj: India did not save prince charles with magical herbs and spices my dude | 07:43 |
CyberManifest | Painter: they have enough on their plate, I think I'll be alright as long as I keep my immune system up | 07:43 |
IronY | rajrajraj: its a nice thought though | 07:43 |
marchelzo | i think there's some other reason why it affects males and elderly more | 07:43 |
marchelzo | i mean the fatality rate among men is crazy compared to women | 07:44 |
rajrajraj | IronY: its in thw news. What do you think cured it | 07:44 |
tinwhiskers | more men are smokers... | 07:44 |
IronY | rajrajraj: Its on a shitty news website | 07:44 |
Painter | Fever doesn't have to be present, though it usually is. Diarrhea is rare with covid. It can happen, but it's not a determining factor in COVID. | 07:44 |
IronY | tinwhiskers: Out here I would say its equal | 07:44 |
IronY | I know just has many female smokers as male smokers | 07:44 |
IronY | eqality and all that | 07:44 |
tinwhiskers | we don't disagree that the outcome for smokers once infected are worse | 07:44 |
rajrajraj | IronY: its on almost every news websites | 07:44 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: yes but so few patients are smokers anyway, it wouldn't make a big enough difference | 07:44 |
tinwhiskers | 52% of males being smokers? You're not talking about China then? | 07:45 |
rajrajraj | IronY: https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/04/03/ayurvedic-formulation-cured-prince-charles-coronavirus-minister-shripad-naik.amp.html | 07:45 |
IronY | rajrajraj: Yes, notice the domain | 07:45 |
IronY | rajrajraj: go find a .uk domain running that story | 07:45 |
rajrajraj | It has to be indian domain | 07:45 |
rajrajraj | Indian news | 07:45 |
IronY | rajrajraj: stop believing someone was cured by herbs and spices | 07:45 |
rajrajraj | Ok wait | 07:45 |
marchelzo | tinwhiskers: the male fatality rate is significantly higher in every country i've seen gender data for | 07:45 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 07:46 |
IronY | marchelzo: tinwhiskers that one is kinda obvious | 07:46 |
CyberManifest | Painter: actually I think I may have had very mild chills one night, but otherwise just cough, diminished breathing/lung capacity, occasional runny nose, and fatigue | 07:46 |
IronY | males work in jobs that already generate respitory issues var more than females | 07:46 |
IronY | I come from a mining city | 07:46 |
IronY | the ladies at behind the desks, the males are breathing in exhaust 2k under the ground | 07:46 |
IronY | of course the males are going to fair worse | 07:46 |
IronY | the same would go with china | 07:46 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 07:46 |
Painter | Regardless of any other symptoms, if you're having difficulty in breathing, you should be seen by a physician. | 07:47 |
marchelzo | i read a rat study that showed that ACE2 expression declines with age. but it declines more in male rats than in female rats. (like 86% reduction vs 74% reduction or something) | 07:47 |
CyberManifest | Painter: and with my diet I thought I had it mostly warded off, until the soreness came back and the breathing was reduced again and like I said it's been since the 18th of last month so it's been a fight | 07:47 |
IronY | not to mention my previous point | 07:47 |
Painter | If it's not COVID, it could be something else. Somebody that I know did travel, and did become very ill. (5 of them actually). They told one in particular that it was pneumonia. | 07:48 |
IronY | ALL people in most countries who die, while being infected with covid, 'died of covid' | 07:48 |
CyberManifest | Painter: they're suggesting I "Flatten the Curve" my symptoms aren't severe enough | 07:48 |
Painter | Double Pneumonia (affecting both lungs) is a huge indicator for COVID-19 | 07:48 |
IronY | Ladies have a longer life span already | 07:48 |
IronY | thus the death count would have more males then females in it by default | 07:48 |
CyberManifest | Painter: my breathing isn't so bad it's unmaniageble *yet* | 07:48 |
rajrajraj | IronY: ok seems fake news | 07:49 |
rajrajraj | Thanks | 07:49 |
rajrajraj | .uk saying india promoting fake news | 07:49 |
rajrajraj | How sad | 07:49 |
IronY | rajrajraj: I mean this by no offence, but at least it is business as usual in India :P | 07:49 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:45 UTC: Coronavirus live news: UK to open temporary Covid-19 hospital as Wuhan warned to be vigilant: Australia’s medical chief global virus cases could be 5-10 million; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000/day by end April. Follow the latest updates [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 07:50 |
Painter | Well, of course. If you don't need to go anywhere, don't go. That's flattening the curve. If you can't breathe, you're only flattening your own curve by staying home. If you have significant trouble with breathing, it's best to get checked. | 07:50 |
rajrajraj | IronY: how is it a usual business | 07:50 |
IronY | rajrajraj: the rest of the world normally associated most scams with your country | 07:50 |
CyberManifest | Painter: what is odd to me though is they mention soreness of joints but honestly it's only my back, neck and rib cage that are sore not any other joints | 07:50 |
Painter | Flattening the curve means that you avoid public places as much as possible. That means getting your grocery list together and shopping for two weeks at a time, rather than every third day or so. | 07:51 |
IronY | CyberManifest: you just identified the places ur lungs sit | 07:51 |
marchelzo | IronY: i wouldnt be so fast to assume that | 07:51 |
Painter | Rib cage is likely from coughing so much | 07:51 |
IronY | marchelzo: assume what? Sorry this is 3 convos at once atm | 07:51 |
rajrajraj | IronY: i have a bigger question now | 07:52 |
marchelzo | fatality rate for other respiratory illnesses like influenza doesn't have the same gender disparity | 07:52 |
CyberManifest | Painter: my cough hasn't been sever and has almost entirely gone away so I think it's something else | 07:52 |
CyberManifest | Painter: they almost feel bruised | 07:52 |
Painter | Flattening the curve means that when you do go shopping, you don't take your entire family out. It's not a "get out of the house day". It's a 1 person trip. 1 person (as much as possible) should be going into the store to limit exposure. | 07:53 |
IronY | marchelzo: limit the scope of data to heavy industrial regions and not the world as a whole | 07:53 |
rajrajraj | IronY: i have a bigger question now | 07:53 |
rajrajraj | IronY: what good qualities can you possibly find out in a scammer? | 07:53 |
IronY | marchelzo: It is a moot convo anyway, our numbers are all bogus | 07:53 |
CyberManifest | Painter: they say to flatten the curve so more at risk patiences and medical staff are protected so the hospitals aren't overwhelmed especially with mild cases | 07:54 |
Painter | Flattening the curve means that you don't go meet with friends and sit around in cars in a parking lot in your cars with windows down so you can yell at each other. That's not social distancing. | 07:54 |
marchelzo | IronY: i think our data on fatalities is decent | 07:54 |
IronY | we have a moving target on confirmed, different countries using different definitions on recovered, and everyone who dies in most places that is covid+ died of covid | 07:54 |
IronY | marchelzo: it is not | 07:54 |
rajrajraj | IronY: if you had to hire a scammer what position would you put him in and what work would he be responsible for | 07:54 |
marchelzo | IronY: why not? | 07:54 |
CyberManifest | Painter: no worries there, I don't even have a car, and I live alone | 07:54 |
IronY | marchelzo: because we are just saying everyone who died, died of covid | 07:54 |
Painter | Right, exactly. Stay out of public places so that you don't get sick, so that staff in hospitals will have more time to be with the patients that they currently have | 07:54 |
IronY | marchelzo: we are actually not even following the standard set by the WHO in testing deaths | 07:54 |
IronY | marchelzo: As an example, did you read about the baby who 'died of covid' | 07:55 |
marchelzo | i've read of several cases where they initially reported a "young healthy person dying of covid-19" and then later put out another article saying it was actually something else | 07:55 |
IronY | marchelzo: yeah that baby was in the hospital for 4 weeks, had complete intestinal blockage | 07:56 |
IronY | it was always going to die, it had a very low chance of recovery | 07:56 |
IronY | but it contracted covid while in the hospital already | 07:56 |
IronY | thus it died of covid | 07:56 |
Painter | Doing all of those social distancing things is what helps to flatten the curve, so that the peak of the curve doesn't happen as quickly, so that when people are in need of ventilators that one will be available. | 07:56 |
IronY | and this is how are counting these numbers | 07:56 |
marchelzo | i think cases like that are rare enough and uniform enough to not make the 50k+ deaths data useless | 07:56 |
CyberManifest | Painter: right, so it helps that I don't seek medical treatment and let more severe cases go instead | 07:57 |
IronY | its all guestimates, the only sane way to interpret the data is on a country by country basis, and even then, with the redefining of recovered/infected/death on a regular basis, even that is flawed | 07:57 |
CyberManifest | Painter: same for being tested | 07:58 |
Painter | If you begin having moderate breathing difficulties, it's best to go get seen before they become severe. They may be able to start you on medications to stop it from becoming severe. | 07:58 |
marchelzo | it means we can't trust the CFR in the 0-30 age bracket because the media and seemingly some governments have a huge boner for reporting that covid-19 is just as deadly for young people as anyone else | 07:58 |
marchelzo | "nobody is safe!!! this attacks the whole spectrum!!! x% if ICU paitnes are 10-44!!" | 07:59 |
IronY | marchelzo: it is a productive | 07:59 |
IronY | 'lie' | 07:59 |
marchelzo | patients* | 07:59 |
IronY | just like: 'You do not need masks' | 07:59 |
IronY | was a productive lie | 07:59 |
CyberManifest | Painter: yeah, I'm trying to monitor that, sometimes it feels like I can't tell, because I don't know if my breaths are shorter or if I'm just sore from my back and rib cage and *think* my breaths are shorter | 07:59 |
marchelzo | except they're not productive, they erode people's trust in the so-called experts | 07:59 |
IronY | marchelzo: If the 10-44 years wanna not trust the gov when this is done, thats cool, but for now i want them scared enough to stay home | 08:00 |
IronY | on the masks, if i told all of canada right now they need masks to go outside, there are no masks available, that does nothing but cause panic | 08:00 |
IronY | might even cause robberies | 08:00 |
marchelzo | they should have promoted homemade mask use | 08:01 |
IronY | they wanted to delay the run on all PPE until they had PPE for people keeping the hospitals open, lights on, and food moving | 08:01 |
IronY | which makes sense | 08:01 |
IronY | sucks | 08:01 |
IronY | but it makes sense | 08:01 |
CyberManifest | IronY: I was wondering about that; one town here in Texas has made it mandatory to wear a mask in public with a fine up to $1000; so I wondered what if you can't get access to a mask or none are available or are too costly how are you supposed to avoid being fined $1000 ? | 08:02 |
IronY | sometimes you have to lie to the general public, the majority of the general public is not that intelligent, they live simple lives with simple routines, and spoon feeding them the truth slowly is better thenr ipping the corn | 08:02 |
IronY | CyberManifest: Not leave your house basically | 08:02 |
IronY | ripping the cord* | 08:02 |
CyberManifest | IronY: but grocery shopping | 08:02 |
IronY | Look at our school systems out here | 08:02 |
IronY | First they said: We are extending the march break by 2 weeks | 08:03 |
IronY | then they said: we are extending it until may 4rth | 08:03 |
IronY | on may fourth they will say: schools out for the year | 08:03 |
IronY | this gives people the ability to adjust slowly to a new normal | 08:03 |
IronY | if they had said in the begining of march school is done for ever | 08:03 |
dunnp | our hospital has abour 10% of cases being 20-29 | 08:03 |
dunnp | its not none | 08:03 |
IronY | there would of been un-needed breakdowns | 08:03 |
dunnp | 40% of cases are under the age of 50 | 08:04 |
dunnp | abotu 10% of the deaths | 08:04 |
IronY | the concept is basically the same thing has institutionalization | 08:04 |
IronY | when you get put into a inpatient/jail | 08:04 |
IronY | it is a shock to your system | 08:04 |
IronY | if you stay long enough | 08:04 |
IronY | leaving is a shock to your system | 08:04 |
CyberManifest | IronY: just another reason I don't wish to seek medical treatment | 08:05 |
berndj | IronY, the problem with eroding trust is that then people stop believing not just the things that are false, but also things that are true, like that it's important that you stay home | 08:06 |
CyberManifest | berndj: containment helps the overall picture, but yeah I know what you mean and agree | 08:08 |
IronY | berndj: in most countries we are already well past 'eroding trust' in the government to be fair | 08:08 |
berndj | you can always make things worse | 08:08 |
IronY | The Media is just has much to blame has the government for the fails of the states in planning | 08:08 |
IronY | they spent the last 5 years telling everyone to not trust the government | 08:08 |
IronY | this is what you get | 08:08 |
IronY | choices have actions | 08:08 |
PlanckWalk | Well, they were right | 08:10 |
IronY | *facepalm* | 08:10 |
PlanckWalk | But yes, that has consequences | 08:10 |
IronY | Right or wrong, neither entity was trustworthy, it was all for ad revenue, no one cared about anyone | 08:10 |
IronY | but here we are | 08:11 |
IronY | the one thing this is going to do for humanity is end the fake political correctness | 08:12 |
berndj | man i hope it does | 08:12 |
CyberManifest | sensationalization; not to down play the virus by any means, but we only now hit 1 million with the world Population at 7+ Billion, and there are only 53,000+ deaths overall and only 245,559 US cases with 6,000+ deaths compared to a population of 300 million+ ; the sensationalization and panic seems worse than the pandemic given the stock market and hoarding and public panic | 08:12 |
IronY | berndj: all the rich white people who had no problems thus took other peoples problems on as their problems to the extent they made the problems worse will have other things to worry about for a few years | 08:13 |
PlanckWalk | CyberManifest: The actual number of cases is at least 10x the confirmed cases, probably quite a bit more than 10x. | 08:13 |
IronY | For example, when fake claims of gender equality come up in lets say next year | 08:14 |
berndj | haha did you see the titania mcgrath tweet about that? | 08:14 |
CyberManifest | PlanckWalk: yeah, but even still marginal to the populations and the give stats of daily death from other causes | 08:14 |
IronY | Feminist: We need more more roar!, Society: You did not get killed at the same rate as your male counterparts, thus biological inequality worked to your benefit, shut up | 08:14 |
CyberManifest | given* | 08:14 |
IronY | berndj: link to the tweet? | 08:15 |
berndj | IronY, yeah, that depends on the "adults in the room" standing up and telling the kids to shut up. i really hope they do wake up to their responsibility to do that | 08:15 |
dunnp | CyberManifest: what has > 9k deaths per day in the US? | 08:15 |
PlanckWalk | The current situation, if it was frozen, isn't worth panicking over. | 08:15 |
berndj | IronY: https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1245065686424203265 | 08:16 |
PlanckWalk | However, it's going to get a lot worse. | 08:16 |
IronY | berndj: I am kinda hoping it because no longer impolite to tell people their idiots | 08:16 |
IronY | berndj: if we can get through this with less a tolerance on ignorance as an excuse, ill take it | 08:16 |
PlanckWalk | If there was no massive economic disruption, it would already be a lot worse and getting worse still. | 08:16 |
IronY | LOOOL at that tweet | 08:16 |
IronY | HAHAHAHAHAHA | 08:16 |
berndj | IronY, you do know who titania is right? | 08:17 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: first thats not sustained we don't have 9k deaths every single day; but if you wish... suicides, drug overdoses, gun violence to name a few | 08:17 |
dunnp | my hope is that this puts a lot more emphasis and respect toward science | 08:17 |
IronY | berndj: I do not, But I will make a point to lol | 08:17 |
CyberManifest | IronY: https://imgur.com/TkMbYXp | 08:17 |
IronY | The comment section on this tweet is gold | 08:17 |
IronY | "Either this pie chart is bigoted or the virus itself is. Either way this is problematic." | 08:17 |
CovidfefeRoey | hello, a close friend of mine put this tool out for measuring coronvairus: https://emscimprovement.center/domains/preparedness/covid-19-coronavirus/domainspreparednesscoronavirus-covid-19ppe/ | 08:18 |
berndj | IronY: spoiler in rot13: gvgnavn vf n cnebql nppbhag | 08:19 |
CyberManifest | https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 | 08:19 |
dunnp | CyberManifest: meant 1-2k deaths but the point still stands | 08:19 |
IronY | berndj: message received | 08:19 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: as does mine | 08:19 |
IronY | V svtherq | 08:20 |
berndj | it isn't always obvious if one isn't familiar with them! poe's law holds | 08:20 |
dunnp | 123 suicides per day on average | 08:20 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: *reported* and that's not for the entire nation | 08:21 |
dunnp | 130 drug overdosses | 08:21 |
CyberManifest | again, *reported* and not for the entire nation | 08:21 |
IronY | 3000 people get killed a day by car accidents | 08:21 |
IronY | globally | 08:21 |
dunnp | its is for the entire nation... | 08:21 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: your source? | 08:22 |
dunnp | https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/prescription-drug-overdose/index.html | 08:22 |
CyberManifest | lol, cdc | 08:22 |
CyberManifest | they're not going to have all the statistics | 08:22 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: most of that is all under reported anyways | 08:24 |
dunnp | is it? | 08:24 |
PlanckWalk | Under-reported? So is COVID! ;-) | 08:25 |
dunnp | forgot that they don't bother to hire epidemiologists to study these things | 08:25 |
PlanckWalk | (By a great deal more) | 08:25 |
IronY | PlanckWalk: It is technically both under reported and over reported | 08:25 |
IronY | lol | 08:25 |
IronY | so there is that | 08:25 |
CyberManifest | dunnp: go take a walk down skid row in L.A. on most any night | 08:25 |
IronY | There is only 1 universal undisputable truth right now | 08:28 |
IronY | Carole Baskins killed her husband and fed him to a tiger | 08:28 |
PlanckWalk | COVID-19 probably won't be as bad as spanish flu was, but it's a lot worse than most media are reporting. | 08:28 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:15 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia live news: chief medical officer says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 06:15: Boris Johnson ignored expert evidence over stopping pandemic, says ex-chief scientific adviser → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 08:29 |
CyberManifest | PlanckWalk: worse how? by deaths or by infections or coverage or what? | 08:30 |
tinwhiskers | The US saying they will only get 220k deaths seems optimistic | 08:31 |
CyberManifest | PlanckWalk: and I think the coverage is enticing panic and exasperating things like shortage of supplies | 08:31 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: you mean over all or in the short term? | 08:31 |
IronY | My province is announcing their projections tomorrow | 08:31 |
IronY | there using terms like grim and sobering | 08:31 |
tinwhiskers | CyberManifest: overall | 08:31 |
IronY | my federal government is not ready to release a federal model | 08:31 |
dunnp | the ICL report estiamted 1.1-2 million deaths in the US | 08:32 |
IronY | ^ | 08:32 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: yeah, aren't they still taking measures of the ebola ? | 08:32 |
IronY | no one estimated 220k | 08:32 |
marchelzo | PlanckWalk: worse than most media are reporting? lol | 08:32 |
tinwhiskers | dunnp: that seems much more reasonable | 08:32 |
IronY | dunnps estimates are the most recent | 08:32 |
IronY | %data canada | 08:32 |
Brainstorm | IronY: In all areas, Canada, there are 11283 cases, 173 deaths (1.5% of cases), 1979 recoveries as of 13 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 8.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 08:32 |
tinwhiskers | IronY: well, doctor what's-his-face that does the press conferences with Trump was saying 200k\ | 08:32 |
CyberManifest | dunnp, is that with or without people staying home? | 08:33 |
berndj | dr fauci, who must have sacrificed 300 virgins to look like he's still 55 | 08:33 |
marchelzo | the true IFR is likely less than 0.5% | 08:34 |
tinwhiskers | 2 days ago - The White House projected the U.S. could face 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, as President Trump warned ... | 08:34 |
tinwhiskers | https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coronavirus-count-excluded-infected-people-with-no-symptoms-11585650226 | 08:34 |
tinwhiskers | 100-220 K deaths | 08:34 |
berndj | "could face 200k deaths if we do nothing" does now equal "predicting 200k deaths" | 08:35 |
tinwhiskers | erm. not that link | 08:35 |
berndj | does not* equal | 08:35 |
dunnp | CyberManifest: that is unmitigated | 08:36 |
marchelzo | hcq + z-pack and rhACE2 will bring the IFR down to flu levels | 08:36 |
tinwhiskers | unmitigated should be millions. Even with mitigation 220KL is extremely optimistic | 08:36 |
IronY | the fact of the matter is | 08:36 |
IronY | we cannot trust any predictions from any government that is not willing to share their model (code) | 08:36 |
IronY | for coming up with those predictions | 08:36 |
IronY | that is not how science works | 08:37 |
berndj | tinwhiskers, why though? even italy seems to be leveling off somewhere in the 20k region, no? | 08:37 |
IronY | you do not trust something that cannot be verified by multiple sources | 08:37 |
tinwhiskers | agreed. That number is stark-raving mad | 08:37 |
IronY | SO until some government goes a does a git push on how they are even coming up with their magic sauce numbers | 08:37 |
IronY | they are magic sauce numbers | 08:37 |
dunnp | marchelzo: hcq is dangerous | 08:37 |
marchelzo | lmao | 08:38 |
IronY | dunnp: Weird, it has been used for decades | 08:38 |
IronY | dunnp: fructose is dangerous :P | 08:38 |
tinwhiskers | berndj: that's only a stalling tactic. see https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b | 08:38 |
IronY | I just imagine somewhere out there there is someone injecting themselves with heroine, snorting some coke, and talking about how HCQ is dangerous ;) | 08:39 |
berndj | tinwhiskers, what's a stalling tactic? | 08:39 |
tinwhiskers | once Italy lifts restrictions the number will increase again | 08:39 |
berndj | ah. you'd think restrictions wouldn't be completely lifted, only till R0 is around 0.99999, rather than back to the way things were at 2.5 | 08:40 |
tinwhiskers | you can defer (stall) the number but unless you plan on lockdown for 18 months there's going to be another spike | 08:40 |
IronY | tinwhiskers: yeah but in the case of italy, they will have sadly bruned through their most vulnerable at that point | 08:40 |
marchelzo | if 50% of the US population gets infected and the IFR is 0.1% with early intervention that's 150k deaths | 08:40 |
tinwhiskers | 0,1% seems optimistic, no? | 08:41 |
IronY | no | 08:41 |
tinwhiskers | 0.1 | 08:41 |
marchelzo | i don't think so | 08:41 |
berndj | 50% getting infected seems pessimistic | 08:41 |
IronY | this is not a overly deadly pathogen | 08:41 |
IronY | compared to previous pandemics | 08:41 |
IronY | it would of been easier if it had a 80% fatality rate to be honest | 08:41 |
IronY | people would of died, but it would of been a short run | 08:41 |
tinwhiskers | the case fatality rate is more like 2% until the hospitals are overloaded then it goes up to 5-10% | 08:42 |
dunnp | ICL model estimated 81% of pop would get it | 08:42 |
berndj | if you did nothing | 08:42 |
marchelzo | the IFR is nowhere near 2% | 08:42 |
IronY | dunnp: that contradicts most science guestimating heard immunity is at around 65% | 08:42 |
IronY | hurd* | 08:42 |
tinwhiskers | herd | 08:42 |
berndj | gnu hurd immunity! | 08:42 |
IronY | yeah huerd | 08:42 |
dunnp | IronY: well thats what they model gave | 08:43 |
IronY | dunnp: and all the models are bullshit | 08:43 |
IronY | were back at the start :D | 08:43 |
dunnp | no | 08:43 |
IronY | yes | 08:43 |
CyberManifest | dunnp, you think things will ease up by May or June like they seem to be implying ? Or is it just a front, while this will continue for a while longer ? | 08:43 |
CyberManifest | I mean if people stay home, they'll have to come out eventually, right? | 08:43 |
IronY | dunnp: GO take a look on how to make a actual mathematical model | 08:43 |
IronY | u will find that there is not enough data | 08:43 |
dunnp | there oges my hope that people might respect scientists more... | 08:43 |
IronY | for a reliablemodel | 08:43 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 08:43 |
CyberManifest | I guess by then they'll have a vaccine though | 08:43 |
berndj | isn't the herd immunity level just 1-(1/R0) or something like that? | 08:43 |
IronY | dunnp: I respect science, ur not understanding science | 08:43 |
IronY | dunnp: you will have ur reliable models in a few months | 08:44 |
marchelzo | if you assume the IFR in SK is the same as the USA and extrapolate from their data (more exhaustive testing than most countries), the USA had ~900k infected 3 weeks ago | 08:44 |
dunnp | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf | 08:44 |
IronY | awesome | 08:44 |
IronY | cool link bro! lol | 08:44 |
tinwhiskers | IronY: so what is your understanding about the expected death toll in the US? | 08:44 |
IronY | I can paste u about 20 additional PDFS from different countries that will have conflicting information | 08:44 |
IronY | tinwhiskers: Oh I am not gonna make any guesses on peoples deaths, thats where I draw the line | 08:44 |
dunnp | IronY: glad to know that these people who do this for a living are just totally wrong | 08:45 |
berndj | what are obesity rates like in south korea? | 08:45 |
dunnp | great insight from some random person on irc | 08:45 |
kreyren | Czech republic is distributing more coin machines on protection gear and desinfection. | 08:45 |
IronY | dunnp: You ever worked for the federal government | 08:45 |
tinwhiskers | mmm | 08:45 |
IronY | I have | 08:45 |
IronY | in the department that does this ;) | 08:45 |
tinwhiskers | IronY: what did you do there? | 08:45 |
dunnp | yea well I'm the head of the NIH | 08:45 |
dunnp | oh wait | 08:45 |
marchelzo | that corresponds to an upper bound of 0.55% for the IFR | 08:46 |
IronY | tinwhiskers: Software engineer, there were two projects, the other project in the company was literally pandemic modeling | 08:46 |
marchelzo | widespread early intervention should easily bring that down to 0.1% | 08:46 |
tinwhiskers | and your project? | 08:46 |
IronY | the company being a 'federal department' or stakeholder | 08:46 |
IronY | tinwhiskers: Aviation security | 08:46 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:32 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: South Korea cases top 10,000, Singapore reports fifth death: South Korea reported 86 new coronavirus cases, taking the country's tally to 10,062, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/LHfprb | 08:47 |
IronY | dunnp: go read ur own governments time line with a memory of more then 24 hours and you can see that they themselves admit their full of shit mostly by contradicting themselves on a daily or bi-daily basis, but then again, there telling you 'Things change daily, this is a daily discussion', ur just not listening because numbers comfort you, which is cool | 08:47 |
IronY | u do not have enough numbers to be comfortable | 08:47 |
dunnp | think that the chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the imperial college london understands less about modeling than you? | 08:48 |
IronY | dunnp: Are you defending the country that almost just started with the heard immunity plan? | 08:48 |
dunnp | ^ being the senior author of that study | 08:48 |
IronY | lol | 08:48 |
dunnp | it is a study by a university, not a government plan | 08:48 |
IronY | i am not going to continue you arguing with you, keep listening to what the people tell you to do | 08:48 |
dunnp | smh | 08:49 |
IronY | the quicker you stop cherry picking ur data based on imaginary borders, the better off the advice you are following is going to get, take all countries advice, find the average, stay safe ;) | 08:49 |
CyberManifest | don't y'all agree panic is exasperating things though? | 08:49 |
marchelzo | yes | 08:50 |
berndj | as bad as this whole thing is, i see a silver lining: with all the testing capacity around the world now we'd make mincemeat of the next wannabe pandemic | 08:50 |
tinwhiskers | exacerbating? | 08:50 |
dunnp | this is not cherry picking... this is the most clearly defined model out there right now | 08:50 |
IronY | dunnp: that is what everyone is saying about every model that is coming out | 08:50 |
CyberManifest | tinwhiskers: sure that too :P | 08:50 |
IronY | yet no one is sharing the model | 08:50 |
dunnp | their model is in that paper | 08:51 |
dunnp | I havent seen any other models | 08:51 |
berndj | they're "refactoring" it before they publish it | 08:51 |
IronY | berndj: I would imagine the code would look like | 08:51 |
berndj | because it's apparently thousands of lines of undocumented C | 08:51 |
IronY | / Declare a variable for deaths, FUck, is this happening, we are all gonna die, FUCK FUCK FUCK | 08:51 |
berndj | and the way i've seen day-job-scientists write code, that could be real bad | 08:52 |
IronY | ^ | 08:52 |
IronY | I assume most countries have their models backed by Microsoft Excel / Access | 08:52 |
CyberManifest | IronY: no reason ML and AI aren't involved | 08:53 |
IronY | CyberManifest: governments are notorious for not being recent on technology | 08:53 |
berndj | it'll be like i++; /* increment counter */ and then half a page down a line of code spanning 5 lines on screen with every letter in the alphabet as a variable, with at best a comment like /* calculate output */ | 08:53 |
IronY | CyberManifest: I would assume private industry is throwing all ML and AI at this | 08:53 |
CyberManifest | IronY: except AI isn't that recent | 08:53 |
IronY | CyberManifest: governments are still mostly running windows 7 | 08:53 |
IronY | they recently upgraded from xp | 08:53 |
berndj | CyberManifest, this model was from the early 2000s era, before ML / AI became big | 08:54 |
IronY | CyberManifest: I had to go through a 5 step sign off to switch from office 2003 to 2010 | 08:54 |
CyberManifest | berndj: oh, I missed the model | 08:54 |
CyberManifest | IronY: I don't doubt it | 08:54 |
jbjllk | https://imgur.com/gallery/TMtbxyC | 08:55 |
IronY | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_pay_system | 08:55 |
IronY | "Instead of saving $70 million a year as planned, the report said that the cost to taxpayers to fix Phoenix's problems could reach a total of $2.2 billion by 2023." | 08:55 |
IronY | our gov cannot even get a payroll system launched | 08:56 |
berndj | CyberManifest, https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713 | 08:57 |
CyberManifest | berndj: yeah it'll be interesting to see how that compares with what AI/ML comes up with | 08:59 |
marchelzo | how would you apply ML here | 09:02 |
IronY | in before someone tells me we will be cured by block chain | 09:02 |
marchelzo | we don't have enough data from actual pandemics for a model to learn from | 09:03 |
marchelzo | not to mention every pandemic is different | 09:03 |
CyberManifest | marchelzo: it could learn the rates of the existing data we have of COVID-19, like https://www.bing.com/covid | 09:04 |
IronY | Thats just a reporting dashboard | 09:04 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:01 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia live news: chief medical officer says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 07:01: Boris Johnson ignored expert evidence over stopping pandemic, says ex-chief scientific adviser → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 09:05 |
CyberManifest | o facilitate the production of data visualizations and dashboards of the pandemic, Tableau has created a COVID-19 Data Hub with a COVID-19 Starter Workbook. And Tirthajyoti Sarkar has published a Python script to illustrate how one could extract data from the New York Times’s COVID-19 dataset to create data visualizations of the progression of the infection. Amanda Makulec calls for responsible | 09:05 |
CyberManifest | visualization of COVID-19 data, listing “Ten Considerations when Visualizing COVID-19 Data”. | 09:05 |
IronY | those are just reports | 09:06 |
CyberManifest | IronY: it uses AI | 09:06 |
IronY | that offer some additional speculation | 09:06 |
IronY | that will change daily | 09:06 |
IronY | as new data is made available | 09:06 |
CyberManifest | https://towardsdatascience.com/artificial-intelligence-against-covid-19-an-early-review-92a8360edaba | 09:06 |
marchelzo | where is the AI part | 09:06 |
IronY | lol yes man | 09:06 |
CyberManifest | marchelzo: see link | 09:07 |
IronY | just because u throw AI/Ml/blockchain/Hypeterm | 09:07 |
IronY | at a problem | 09:07 |
IronY | means nothing | 09:07 |
CyberManifest | IronY: seems like a pretty revealing site to me | 09:07 |
IronY | CyberManifest: It is just information to consume, it does not help stop the pandemic | 09:07 |
IronY | and since we are not getting reliable case data / blood tests / random sample data | 09:08 |
IronY | not much of use can be extrapolated | 09:08 |
CyberManifest | IronY: the information that is consumed is taken into consideration to help mitigate and stop the pandemic | 09:08 |
IronY | "people are sick, more people are going to be sick tomorrow" | 09:08 |
IronY | CyberManifest: that ship sailed, it was called confinement | 09:09 |
IronY | the only way to stop the pandemic is to lock everyone in their house for a few months, or a vaccine | 09:09 |
IronY | CyberManifest: You realize hiv/aids is still a thing right? | 09:09 |
IronY | So is H1N1 (Spanish Flu) | 09:09 |
CyberManifest | https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/ | 09:10 |
IronY | Yes, there are about 100000 of those links | 09:10 |
marchelzo | im not seeing how AI is used on this bing thing | 09:10 |
IronY | they said the same thing in the 80s | 09:10 |
IronY | about aids | 09:10 |
IronY | :P | 09:10 |
CyberManifest | IronY: no, you didn't look at it | 09:10 |
IronY | I dont have to look at it | 09:10 |
CyberManifest | IronY: oh, so you know everything | 09:10 |
IronY | we have Zero vaccines in all of human history for corona viruses | 09:10 |
IronY | zero | 09:11 |
IronY | not one | 09:11 |
IronY | *sigh*, I wont continue and you can keep your false sense of security | 09:11 |
IronY | btw, the nypost is a tabloid | 09:12 |
IronY | which is why I do not need to click ur link | 09:12 |
CyberManifest | IronY: so you need another source of the SAME story? | 09:13 |
IronY | ur other sources are going to include the sun, a few other uk publications, and a few australian publications | 09:13 |
IronY | they are all owned by the same parent company | 09:13 |
IronY | they are called tabloids | 09:13 |
IronY | they are not new | 09:13 |
CyberManifest | IronY: so what would you deem acceptable? | 09:13 |
jbjllk | real medical report | 09:14 |
IronY | Nothing, because no one who is qualified to d this would ever give you a straight answer because the answer is there are currently no answers | 09:14 |
jbjllk | and the cure alvalible | 09:14 |
jbjllk | out | 09:15 |
CyberManifest | IronY: alright, good luck with that, for me, I'm gonna get me one of those tabloid vaccines when they become available and cure myself | 09:15 |
IronY | CyberManifest: no you wont, but if it helps you feel better, sure | 09:15 |
jbjllk | or die trying | 09:15 |
CyberManifest | Or fight it off myself with my own immune system | 09:16 |
jbjllk | which is how most will live | 09:16 |
vaak | https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/04/03/entire-april-2-coronavirus-town-hall-part-3-sot-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/entire-cnn-april-2-coronavirus-town-hall/ | 09:17 |
CyberManifest | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/johnson-johnson-to-begin-clinical-trials-on-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate.html | 09:17 |
dunnp | here's the source paper for what CyberManifest's article was talking about: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30118-3/fulltext | 09:17 |
berndj | IronY, coronaviruses are a pretty new virus family though | 09:18 |
dunnp | seemed to work in mice but clearly a lot more work to do | 09:18 |
IronY | no argument there berndj | 09:18 |
IronY | but it does not change the fact if you think a vaccine is a for sure thing | 09:18 |
vaak | he said that test + for anti bodies | 09:18 |
berndj | i don't see any reason to believe, a priori, that a vaccine for this one (or any other coronavirus) should be any harder to make than for random other viruses | 09:18 |
IronY | berndj: We have a 100 years or so head start on flu vaccines | 09:19 |
IronY | our last h1n1 thing was what 2009? | 09:19 |
berndj | flu vaccines are hard to do because the virus mutates fast | 09:19 |
berndj | not because making vaccines is inherently hard | 09:19 |
IronY | berndj: we are currently operating that this virus is slow mutating | 09:20 |
IronY | but again, that could change | 09:20 |
berndj | it's hard when the virus attacks the immune system itself, as in HIV | 09:20 |
berndj | i thought i saw somewhere it's mutating around 8 times slower than the influenza virus | 09:20 |
IronY | someone told me 10 times slower | 09:20 |
IronY | so lets split the difference and say 9 for the sake of conversation | 09:20 |
berndj | close enough. maybe i'm misremembering the 8. it was about an order of magnitude | 09:21 |
IronY | mutates 9 times slower, is incredibly more contagious how ever, so has a significantly larger amount of attempts to mutate | 09:21 |
berndj | and i don't see an a priori reason for believing that this thing will suddenly radically change its mutation behaviour | 09:21 |
IronY | berndj: thats our hope at the moment | 09:22 |
berndj | it isn't an unreasonable hope | 09:22 |
aradesh | what's that? coronaviruses in general? | 09:22 |
berndj | it's basically a sane default assumption | 09:22 |
IronY | berndj: There is not enough data for a sane default assumption | 09:22 |
berndj | aradesh, not for now, just this one in particular | 09:22 |
IronY | there - is - not enough data | 09:22 |
aradesh | surely we don't know much about its mutation data yet | 09:22 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:11 UTC: Stocks slip as data shows China's economy still hurting from Covid-19 - business live: Stocks dropped overnight as Chinese services data showed the economic recovery from the Covid-19 outbreak may take longer than hoped — from r/WorldNews at 07:11: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War Two → https://is.gd/SfTBF4 | 09:22 |
berndj | IronY, we have experience with LOTS of other viruses | 09:22 |
IronY | berndj: Every virus is different, that means literally nothing | 09:23 |
aradesh | the problem is if africa and india become reservoirs for 100's of millions of cases of covid-19, there will be ample opportunities for new mutations | 09:23 |
berndj | this doesn't fall into some weird category like "attacks the very system that's meant to kill viruses", so (again, a priori only) there's no reason to go around with a "sky is falling" mentality | 09:23 |
vaak | virus are parsits | 09:23 |
IronY | berndj: not yet, but there is also no reason to expect this to be finished anytime soon without accepting as a society on acceptable losses | 09:24 |
CyberManifest | IronY: you remind me of the AI in The Last Question by Isaac Asimov "INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER" | 09:24 |
berndj | IronY, every virus is "different" but they follow some patterns | 09:24 |
vaak | lets hope thay dont want to kill the host | 09:24 |
IronY | berndj: there is NOT ENOUGH DATA to find any meaningful patterns | 09:24 |
IronY | everything ur saying, the answer is, there is not enough data for it to be a reliable answer yet | 09:24 |
berndj | it isn't reasonable to think that this new virus we know relatively little about is automatically going to be 100x harder to vaccinate against | 09:24 |
IronY | and no one giving you these answers will tell you any different | 09:25 |
aradesh | USA had over 1100 deaths yesterday... | 09:25 |
IronY | people are trying their best, no argument, there is just not enough data... | 09:25 |
vaak | USA 1st | 09:25 |
CyberManifest | IronY: so let's just give up cause there is never gonna be "ENOUGH DATA" | 09:25 |
berndj | sure, but "not enough data" does not equal "it's going to be the worst-case scenario" | 09:25 |
IronY | we are not even blood sapling ppl ffs | 09:25 |
aradesh | we'll certainly have a lot of data in a year or two | 09:26 |
vaak | i dont think that what trump meant | 09:26 |
aradesh | lol | 09:26 |
berndj | CyberManifest, lol i was thinking exactly the same | 09:26 |
IronY | CyberManifest: the thing with not enough data, is there is more and more data each day, this time in itself, will provide, you guessed it, more data, no one told you to give up | 09:26 |
aradesh | it's not just data, it's time too | 09:26 |
IronY | you can keep talking about random bullshit you feel is true though, and that changes nothing | 09:26 |
aradesh | we've not had much time to study it | 09:26 |
ubLIX | progress succeeds in the attempt | 09:26 |
IronY | ffs this is how science has always worked | 09:26 |
aradesh | a lot of these studies aren't quick things | 09:26 |
CyberManifest | IronY: you remind me of the AI in The Last Question by Isaac Asimov "INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER" | 09:26 |
berndj | IronY, basically, if our immune systems are able to defeat this virus, then in principle a vaccine is possible to develop. it's the same mechanism | 09:26 |
berndj | the only real question is "for how long will a vaccine be protective?" | 09:27 |
IronY | berndj: yes, you can make antibody vaccines, there hard to scale though | 09:27 |
CyberManifest | IronY: they asked day by day, same answer: Insufficient data for a meaningful answer | 09:27 |
IronY | berndj: You would not be able to scale an antibody vaccine to the needed level for quite some time | 09:27 |
vaak | with in year there will be vacine for the last years virus | 09:27 |
IronY | berndj: and by that time, more and more people would have natural antibodies anyway | 09:27 |
berndj | IronY, no, i'm not talking about monoclonal antibodies | 09:27 |
CyberManifest | data after data... "Insufficient data for a meaningful answer." | 09:27 |
berndj | i'm talking about the *mechanism* by which your immune system makes antibodies and clears the virus | 09:28 |
berndj | IronY, it isn't a coincidence that people can't clear HIV and that an HIV vaccine is elusive | 09:28 |
IronY | berndj: I mean, Listen lets just agree you go help people make vaccines and maybe you pull off a never done in history before small miracle | 09:28 |
IronY | dont waste ur time debating it on the internet, you clearly know what your talking about | 09:28 |
IronY | go get it done, we need ur help | 09:28 |
vaak | covid is closer to flu that to HIV? | 09:29 |
berndj | the miracle would only be in how quickly we get one widely available, not in developing one that works at all | 09:29 |
CyberManifest | berndj: problem... https://www.foxnews.com/health/up-to-10-percent-of-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-report-says | 09:29 |
IronY | *sigh* | 09:29 |
ubLIX | IronY: isn't it about time you went to bed? | 09:29 |
berndj | CyberManifest, what's the base rate? what % of recovered flu patients get that same flu strain again? | 09:30 |
IronY | ubLIX: I think its time I drop this channel soon tbh, it used to be intelligent discussions in the am, maybe I will go make a vaccine | 09:30 |
vaak | i thought its was called corona cause its cronic illness? | 09:30 |
berndj | no, it's because of its physical shape | 09:30 |
berndj | it has a "crown" (corona) of spike proteins | 09:30 |
vaak | okay | 09:31 |
vaak | dont they all? | 09:31 |
berndj | no | 09:31 |
CyberManifest | berndj: I don't know, I've seen mixed reports, some in China say the antibodies are effective there are even clinical trials underway for testing antibodies infused from recovered patience, but then I see other reports like that one where recovered patiences are positive again. | 09:31 |
berndj | CyberManifest, these are different kinds of treatments | 09:32 |
berndj | injecting a recovered person's antibodies helps clear the virus, but it doesn't actually confer immunity | 09:32 |
berndj | you need the memory cells to have immunity | 09:32 |
vaak | if you catch cold the virus become active again | 09:33 |
CyberManifest | berndj: yes I know | 09:33 |
berndj | and to get the memory cells, your immune system has to learn to recognize the virus, which it does by mutating antibody genes like crazy and finding the ones that happen to match | 09:33 |
berndj | and it's the same mechanism that a) makes vaccines work, and b) lets you clear the virus naturally | 09:34 |
berndj | so if humans can clear an infection at all, it's a strong hint that a vaccine is possible | 09:34 |
berndj | vaak, which virus? | 09:35 |
vaak | probably you never get rid if the virus it just goes dormant till you catch cold | 09:36 |
CyberManifest | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html | 09:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1022 cases (now 1018062), +11 deaths (now 53268), +85 recoveries (now 213217) since an hour ago — Sri Lanka: +1 recoveries (now 22) since an hour ago — Russia: +601 cases (now 4149), +4 deaths (now 34), +46 recoveries (now 281) since an hour ago | 09:36 |
vaak | like flu | 09:36 |
vaak | dont you think? | 09:37 |
CyberManifest | https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/plasma-donations-from-recovered-covid-19-patients.html | 09:37 |
berndj | vaak, the common cold is just caused by a virus that mutates crazily fast, so any immunity to one strain going around only helps for like 3 months until the circulating virus has mutated out of recognition | 09:37 |
vaak | it makes lots of sense to me | 09:38 |
vaak | so the virus mutated | 09:38 |
vaak | so the virus mutates faster cause of cold ? | 09:38 |
berndj | i don't understand your question. which virus? | 09:39 |
vaak | respiratory virus | 09:39 |
vaak | flu like virus | 09:39 |
berndj | there are many. the common cold is caused by one of them | 09:39 |
berndj | the common cold is not caused by the influenza virus | 09:40 |
ubLIX | s/one/a bunch/ | 09:40 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:30 UTC: Coronavirus live news: UK to open temporary Covid-19 hospital as Wuhan warned to be vigilant: Australia’s medical chief says global virus cases could be five to 10 million; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000 a day by end April [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 09:40 |
vaak | i mean cold like in temprature | 09:40 |
berndj | yeah true, although i think it's typically rhinovirus | 09:40 |
vaak | why do you get flu in winter ? | 09:41 |
berndj | oh, cold temperature. yeah i dunno. i think each virus has its own "personality" | 09:41 |
vaak | all flu virus are like this | 09:41 |
vaak | so the virus mutates faster cause of cold ? | 09:42 |
vaak | ?? | 09:42 |
berndj | maybe because the virus is more fragile in warmer temperatures; maybe because in winter humans behave differently, and in a way that helps the virus spread | 09:42 |
blkshp | reduced immune response in the winter due to less sunlight. viruses transmit faster in the cold. | 09:42 |
jbjllk | https://imgur.com/gallery/mGeVNng | 09:42 |
berndj | like we huddle together more in winter than in summer, that lets the virus spread faster | 09:43 |
vaak | reduced immune response in the winter trigers the virus | 09:43 |
vaak | that who it is | 09:43 |
vaak | how | 09:43 |
blkshp | is that a question? | 09:44 |
CyberManifest | berndj: here's one of the ones I was talking about: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075438/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-rise-after-chinese-scientists-find | 09:44 |
berndj | in winter we close windows etc., keeping the pathogens in, so they have more opportunity to get into someone's respiratory system | 09:44 |
berndj | vaak, it doesn't "trigger" the virus | 09:44 |
ubLIX | vaak: well, sure, the immune system is more challenged in winter, but it doesn't necessarily follow that the infections you're thinking of are re-activation of dormant infections; it could just be that in a well-ordered summer immune system that the virus would never get a toehold in the first place | 09:45 |
vaak | the virus is dormant and reduced immune response in the winter due to cold trigger the virus to start reproducing | 09:45 |
ubLIX | in an over-challenged immune system, more infections are going to succeed | 09:45 |
vaak | thats what it is | 09:45 |
vaak | nailed iut | 09:46 |
vaak | itr | 09:46 |
berndj | CyberManifest, oh right i heard about those rhesus monkeys | 09:46 |
vaak | just like flowers in spring | 09:47 |
CyberManifest | https://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-infects-cells.html | 09:47 |
ubLIX | vaak: consider that unless you a hermit, you are ceaselessly exposed to all sorts of virus, and that in winter more of these translate into symptomatic infection | 09:48 |
CyberManifest | berndj: then I see reports like this: https://www.womenshealthmag.com/health/a31680268/can-you-get-coronavirus-twice/ | 09:48 |
pwr22 | Morning everyone | 09:48 |
aldwich | hi all | 09:48 |
CyberManifest | irony[m]: You were asking how AI could play a role... https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-intelligence-composes-new-proteins-the-building-blocks-of-life-as-musical-scores/ Maybe with the protein of the Virus shell | 09:50 |
berndj | CyberManifest, with any disease there will be people who get reinfected. because they have a broken immune system, or because of some other idiosyncrasy of either their bodies, the particular virus they had, or the antibodies they happened to make the first time | 09:50 |
CyberManifest | berndj: or missassesment of recovery ;) | 09:51 |
berndj | another possibility is that one of the times the patient didn't really have a sars-cov-2 infection; maybe they just had a flu and the test yielded a false positive, one of the times | 09:51 |
vaak | herps is the same you never get rid of it | 09:51 |
vaak | its just goes dromant | 09:51 |
berndj | because it hides where the immune system can't get at it | 09:51 |
ubLIX | vaak: why do you think the common cold viruses cannot be cleared by a normal immune system? | 09:52 |
vaak | yes | 09:52 |
vaak | it surely hides | 09:52 |
ubLIX | why do you think so? | 09:52 |
vaak | cause the cold triggers it | 09:53 |
ubLIX | ok then | 09:53 |
berndj | non sequitur | 09:53 |
ubLIX | berndj: eject eject eject | 09:53 |
vaak | its just waiting for the right conditions to start reproducing | 09:54 |
berndj | argument by assertion | 09:54 |
CyberManifest | berndj: stuff happens like this happens because the government does this...https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html && https://fortune.com/2020/03/10/gilead-coronavirus-treatment-remdesivir-being-used-washington-cdc/ | 09:54 |
vaak | lots hope they are smart enough not to kill the host | 09:54 |
vaak | like any good parasite | 09:55 |
berndj | those sites have a habit of breaking my computer; TL;DR version? | 09:55 |
vaak | wich its what they are | 09:55 |
vaak | celular parasits | 09:55 |
CyberManifest | nucleic acid instruction sets wrapped in a protein shell | 09:57 |
berndj | CyberManifest, if only 0.1-1% of patients get reinfected, that's basically irrelevant | 09:58 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:44 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens today as Hancock says 'money is no object' — from r/WorldNews at 07:44: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War II → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 09:58 |
berndj | it sucks for those people, but it doesn't at all diminish the herd immunity effect of a widely used vaccine | 09:58 |
aldwich | "money of no object"? that was not exactly gov't policy the past decade wrt the NHS ... | 09:59 |
vaak | sounds like an alien bio weapon CyberManifest | 09:59 |
CyberManifest | https://youtu.be/h0xTKxbIElU | 10:00 |
ubLIX | what is your native language, vaak? | 10:00 |
berndj | vaak: https://www.longdom.org/open-access/sunspot-cycle-minima-and-pandemics-the-case-for-vigilance-2332-2519-1000159.pdf | 10:00 |
CyberManifest | berndj: yeah | 10:00 |
vaak | mabe its gods pest control baked into the fabric of life | 10:00 |
ubLIX | vaak: can I persuade you to keep that flavour of idea to yourself? | 10:01 |
CyberManifest | vaak, you saying we weaponized our DNA on other intergalactic species ? | 10:01 |
ubLIX | CyberManifest: I would say same to you/don't encourage them | 10:03 |
CyberManifest | ubLIX: fair enough | 10:03 |
CyberManifest | So why don't we use CRISPER to make a Virus to attack the Coronavirus ? | 10:05 |
CyberManifest | kinda like how hackers used good computer viruses to eradicate bad viruses ? | 10:06 |
n9nes | this is actually how its often done when you get a vaccinate | 10:07 |
ubLIX | the attack would have to be indirect, would it not? | 10:07 |
CyberManifest | n9nes I thought vaccinations just induce the body to activate it's immune system | 10:08 |
vaak | why not make the antibody instead? | 10:08 |
n9nes | ok, then it was my fault I guess - I think yes, this is more likely correct. | 10:09 |
CyberManifest | ubLIX I don't see why, I mean surely it could be coded to hunt | 10:09 |
CyberManifest | vaak, use CRISPER to make antibodies? | 10:09 |
n9nes | But I remember it maybe different depending on if this vaccination viruses is 'alive' or not | 10:09 |
CyberManifest | viruses aren't alive | 10:10 |
n9nes | yes they are not | 10:10 |
vaak | yes | 10:10 |
n9nes | but in virus terminology there is a difference between living and dead vaccination | 10:10 |
vaak | use CRISPER to make cells that produce antibodies | 10:10 |
ubLIX | CyberManifest: "viruses aren't alive" seems to be the nail in the coffin of your idea of using them to 'attack' something | 10:11 |
CyberManifest | ubLIX: when I say hunt I mean bind to certain types of proteins | 10:11 |
ubLIX | CyberManifest: kinda reminds of this cartoon: http://i.imgur.com/S7KWqlx.png | 10:12 |
n9nes | ubLIX, I dont think so. The term "viruses" are not alive is often used because of the fact that viruses dont have their own metabolism and that you can freeze them for thousands of years, but what you can do, is to destroy their chemical substance | 10:12 |
CyberManifest | uBLIX T-Cells aren't alive either | 10:12 |
n9nes | but I'm no expert, just my cents | 10:13 |
marchelzo | i just had a genius idea | 10:14 |
vaak | dont think vacine think cure | 10:14 |
CyberManifest | CRISPER mutate Corona | 10:14 |
vaak | use CRISPER to make cells that produce antibodies inject antibodies in patient = cure | 10:15 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:59 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia live news: chief medical officer says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – latest update — from r/WorldNews at 07:59: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War II → https://is.gd/qMKt9G | 10:16 |
genera | not only crisp, but crisper | 10:16 |
vaak | use a bioreactor | 10:16 |
CyberManifest | so UV would weaken the virus, even if it weakens our cells too, right? | 10:17 |
marchelzo | imagine if every time a PCR test was performed on somebody, the result was sent to Google and they use your test result + all of their information they've gathered about you + your temperature, presence of cough, oxygen saturation, bp, hr, etc. as a training example for a ML model | 10:17 |
CyberManifest | UV would maybe help mitigate contamination right? | 10:17 |
genera | they use the UV on inanimate material | 10:17 |
marchelzo | by the time 300,000 tests had been done worldwide we'd have a pretty good model and then people could literally test themselves with their phone | 10:18 |
marchelzo | instantly | 10:18 |
vaak | UV good for disinfecting hospital rooms | 10:18 |
marchelzo | imagine wearing an apple watch and you literally get notified: it looks like you have covid-19. you should go get tested | 10:18 |
vaak | i suppose | 10:18 |
CyberManifest | genera: right but they could use UV like on hands and such to decrease spread, or like people walk through a UV kinda like airport security | 10:18 |
aldwich | tests over mobile phones? what about privacy concerns etc? | 10:18 |
genera | nope | 10:19 |
marchelzo | privacy concerns temporarily stop mattering when we're trying to prevent millions of deaths | 10:19 |
vaak | CyberManifest rave on | 10:19 |
genera | the dose of UV that you need to have effect on the virus is .. high | 10:19 |
marchelzo | imagine automated contact tracing and symptom monitoring | 10:20 |
aldwich | marchelzo: i agree with you on that. just saying. my concern would only be what happens to the data afterwards. will they get anonymised for research purposes? | 10:21 |
vaak | UV would be good for disinfecting hospital rooms | 10:21 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +713 cases (now 1018775), +2 deaths (now 53270), +1 recoveries (now 213218) since 47 minutes ago — Denmark: +286 cases (now 3672) since 2 hours ago — Romania: +1 deaths (now 116) since 2 hours ago | 10:21 |
marchelzo | idk i'm not the one putting the policies in place i'm just suggesting an idea | 10:21 |
marchelzo | lol | 10:21 |
CyberManifest | vaak, and grocery stores ? | 10:21 |
vaak | i guess | 10:21 |
CyberManifest | vaak, and most business, airports etc | 10:22 |
vaak | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionization_chamber | 10:23 |
CyberManifest | we're all going to end up with UV poisoning | 10:23 |
vaak | UV poisoning? | 10:23 |
vaak | LOL | 10:23 |
marchelzo | Google could notice that you took 14% longer to walk to work one day and that your HR increased more than usual and that you're coughing a lot. combine that with everything it knows about you (age, race, interests, web browsing tendencies, screen time, etc.) and the prevalence of the disease in your surrounding area / time spent near known infected patients in the past week, etc. | 10:24 |
CyberManifest | vaak: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diving_chamber#Hyperbaric_chamber | 10:24 |
marchelzo | and determine that you have covid-19 several days before you would ever have even thought to get tested | 10:24 |
CyberManifest | vaak UV could lead to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acute_radiation_syndrome | 10:25 |
vaak | UV is Ionizating radiation | 10:25 |
aldwich | bit like google search trends predicting outbreaks of common flu/colds | 10:25 |
vaak | it kill everything | 10:25 |
mefistofeles | marchelzo: I don't think it's "several days", maybe just some hours, and still that would give a lot of false positives, imho... unless they train it somehow with a really large dataset, which is non-existent | 10:25 |
marchelzo | exactly | 10:25 |
marchelzo | mefistofeles: you would seed it with data from the first 300,000 PCR tests or something. i'm mostly thinking for future epidemics | 10:26 |
mefistofeles | marchelzo: still, you would be overfitting for this | 10:26 |
aldwich | now picture this: these data come with your name and social security number, next thing you know, you not only get spam in gmail about flu medicine but your insurance premium might go up if these data are shared with third part, ie your health insurer ... | 10:26 |
marchelzo | mefistofeles: what? i didn't even suggest a particular ML model and somehow you know i'll be overfitting? | 10:27 |
marchelzo | aldwich: you think google doesn't already know about your health conditions? | 10:27 |
mefistofeles | marchelzo: you would be training your model with the data from this epidemic, therefore it can be really not suited for future ones | 10:27 |
aldwich | almost like in getting your personalised QR code that prevents you from swiping into the metro/public transport. technically v interesting, as long as this does not get into the wrong hnds | 10:27 |
vaak | they use it in food to kill microrganism in food for extend shelf life | 10:28 |
mefistofeles | and again, you will end up with many false positives or negatives and a bad accuracy overall | 10:28 |
marchelzo | mefistofeles: no, i mean next time there's an epidemic, start doing this right away | 10:28 |
marchelzo | it could be like an online model or whatever | 10:28 |
aldwich | marchelzo: possibly, becoming the new facebook ... | 10:28 |
marchelzo | every PCR test will make the model better | 10:28 |
mefistofeles | marchelzo: ok, but it would take many days or even weeks to get a suitable training data set and even then Iç m not that sure it would work | 10:29 |
CyberManifest | I'm gonna try to sleep now, good night everyone. Take Care | 10:29 |
mefistofeles | but it's something to think about | 10:29 |
vaak | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_irradiation | 10:29 |
mefistofeles | I think the approach SIngapore and EU are trying is much more effective in that regard | 10:29 |
ubLIX | marchelzo: wouldn't you be afraid that the best it could do would be to identify patients whose symptoms were consistent but not diagnostic? | 10:30 |
marchelzo | why? | 10:30 |
vaak | https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/0c/Radura_international.svg/1024px-Radura_international.svg.png | 10:31 |
ubLIX | well covi-19 symptoms as seen by the sensor suite on a typical smartphone don't strike me as being promisingly specific | 10:31 |
marchelzo | yeah the actual physiological data is missing. you'd need to manually take your temperature and blood pressure and oxygen saturation etc. but i'm wondering if somehow your behavior could be a very early indicator | 10:33 |
ubLIX | to differentiate between covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses? | 10:33 |
ubLIX | and other illnesses generally | 10:33 |
vaak | after covid19 all babies are coming out of a tube | 10:34 |
ubLIX | vaak: shoosh | 10:34 |
marchelzo | probably not very well, but that's why it adjusts by using health data about curent influenza incidence, nearby confirmed infections of covid-19, etc. | 10:34 |
vaak | cause social isolation lwas | 10:34 |
vaak | laws | 10:34 |
ubLIX | marchelzo: and data on the prior condition of the patient in question, i suppose | 10:34 |
marchelzo | yeah | 10:35 |
aldwich | not sure whether a phone based app can be accurate. the sensor might take your temperature but cannot do a blood test | 10:35 |
marchelzo | given enough information you could probably get very close to an accurate diagnosis without actually detecting virus RNA | 10:35 |
aldwich | i think phone apps would be better to for tracing and tracking known positives | 10:35 |
marchelzo | but anyway it's not meant to be a test. it's more like "isolate yourself from everybody and get tested as soon as possible" kind of thing | 10:35 |
vaak | the phone listens to you coffing and flags you has a + | 10:36 |
marchelzo | or yeah it could alert health authorities that you're a suspected case and they could go test you | 10:36 |
aldwich | that would make sense. plus with gps data in the background, contact tracing should be a breeze. and then send messages to your physical contacts whos phone was within close proximity of you. | 10:37 |
marchelzo | the main point is that there's a lot of room for innovation in this area that should be considered in preparation for future epidemics | 10:37 |
vaak | yes | 10:37 |
vaak | also a self destruct optin | 10:38 |
aldwich | i think we'll see a lot more pandemics in the next few decades. so now is the time to get busy. gov'ts are typically busy or ignoring these dangers till it's too late. like on the BBC last night. former health secretary admitted they should have done their research and put policy measures in placea decade ago. very helpful. the usual lack of momentum in quiet times | 10:39 |
vaak | like a needle in your smartwatch | 10:40 |
vaak | with cyanide | 10:40 |
code-glitch | Yeah I'd like to see wearables have more health monitoring functionality - then tracking would be made easier | 10:41 |
code-glitch | There are privacy issues with this though | 10:41 |
marchelzo | the other option is to put literal microscopes on phones and use ultra high resolution photos of sputum samples or something as the training set | 10:41 |
marchelzo | like how people use classifiers to make diagnoses from CT scans and MRIs and shit | 10:41 |
marchelzo | and they're better than humans | 10:41 |
vaak | who needs humans ? | 10:42 |
ubLIX | vaak.. | 10:42 |
aldwich | we need a training set of good data actually. is idiotic the UK gov did not want to go down the route of testing. the more data the better! | 10:42 |
vaak | just aliability | 10:42 |
code-glitch | aldwich : Testing doesn't stop the spread though? I'm not convinced it would help that much. | 10:43 |
marchelzo | the problem is you can't just test. you need to measure all sorts of other things at the time of the test so you can see what correlates with positive/negative results | 10:43 |
Butterfly^ | it could help reduce the spread | 10:43 |
Butterfly^ | how many people are spreading it while they have no clue? with testing, every person that knows, is able to actually isolate for 2-3 weeks | 10:44 |
aldwich | code-glitch: no it doesn't you're right. it's to study for future pandemics. now we're just racing playing catch-up | 10:44 |
code-glitch | Butterfly^ : true - didn't think of that | 10:44 |
Nokaji | ,[If te UK did testing, it woulda been easier to accuse them of still going down the Herd Immunity route (which incidentally, doesn't require so much testing) | 10:45 |
Butterfly^ | lots of people have no symptoms at all | 10:45 |
marchelzo | off topic but do you guys think the reason healthcare workers seem to have worse outcomes than the age-adjusted general population is because when they're wearing a mask they can't shed virus? like they breathe it out or cough it out into the mask but then they breathe it right back in | 10:46 |
Nokaji | marchelzo: I think, mask aside ... that it is bcz they get a larger dose, which overwhelms them | 10:47 |
code-glitch | marchelzo : My understanding is that its the volume of viruses they are exposed to. Like a non-medical person might be exposed to 1000 viruses - but then a medic would be exposed to 10x that number | 10:47 |
code-glitch | (numbers made up) | 10:47 |
aldwich | marchelzo: my hypothesis is they're more prone simply they're exposed directly and much more than anyone else. | 10:47 |
code-glitch | It overwelmes their immune system | 10:47 |
marchelzo | yes we're all in agreement that viral load correlates with severity | 10:48 |
aldwich | plus add all the other viruses that make their round in a hospital, their exposure is constantly higher, plus add the stress level, your immune system goes down, so their outcomes might be worse on average | 10:48 |
marchelzo | but once they're infected they keep wearing the mask and breathing their own virus in, exacerbating the problem | 10:49 |
ubLIX | long shifts.. sleep deprivation | 10:49 |
code-glitch | No outside exposure (being outside int the sun increases Vitamin D producetion = increased immunity) | 10:49 |
adventurer | That's interesting marchelzo is there studies on it? | 10:49 |
code-glitch | *production | 10:49 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:35 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA — from r/WorldNews at 08:35: Australia will impose huge fines for illegally exporting medical supplies amid coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/CXnlVs | 10:50 |
marchelzo | none that i've seen but it seems logical. it's literally how you infect other people except the other person is now yourself | 10:50 |
code-glitch | marchelzo - interesting... | 10:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +813 cases (now 1019588), +41 deaths (now 53311), +307 recoveries (now 213525) since 42 minutes ago — Philippines: +385 cases (now 3018), +29 deaths (now 136), +1 recoveries (now 52) since 2 hours ago — Denmark: +286 cases (now 3672) since 2 hours ago | 10:51 |
marchelzo | but idk what percentage of virus shedding happens from breathing/talking/coughing vs how much is from antibodies killing it | 10:51 |
marchelzo | could be negligible | 10:51 |
adventurer | I had the thought about spitting flem...obviously gross and was illegal in spanish flu but maybe some people naturally want to spit out that virus filled and maybe secondarily bacterially infected flem out rather than it staying in their bodies. I am not advocating people to spit maybe down the sink only. people don't ordinarly feel like spitting unless they have flem or a bad tastein their mouth....from say virus infected flem they coughed | 10:52 |
adventurer | up...maybe better to spit it down the sick than swallow it down and hope your body takes care of it | 10:52 |
Nokaji | carry a packet of disposable tissues | 10:53 |
adventurer | sorry very gross | 10:53 |
adventurer | i also had the thought of mask not letitng you be ventilated yourself | 10:53 |
Nokaji | or spit down a drain if absolutely necessary (which it never is) | 10:53 |
adventurer | oh | 10:54 |
ubLIX | marchelzo: i don't know, seems if you're shedding at all, the ratio of shedding to internal viral count would be infinitesimal | 10:54 |
Nokaji | I still recall seeing someone walking along a road, waiting until he passed a footpath and then spitting on that footpath where everyone will walk | 10:54 |
adventurer | well i am not sick but i was thinking like marchelzo about the only downside of the mask being not ventilated stuffy breating back in the same bad air | 10:54 |
adventurer | a little | 10:55 |
adventurer | I wonder if anyone did a study if it made a difference how sick someone was if they spat all the flem vs swallowed it back down. sorry that is very gross | 10:56 |
adventurer | i doubt anyone else had that thought before | 10:56 |
adventurer | sorry | 10:56 |
adventurer | eww | 10:56 |
Codsworth | question, who invented this virus, surely it cannot be natual of orgin with such timing of it being released | 10:57 |
adventurer | they can't really test on humans like that | 10:57 |
Codsworth | natural* | 10:57 |
Codsworth | origin ^^&* | 10:57 |
berndj | marchelzo, i think it's more likely healthcare workers have a bad time because they get larger initial doses of virus | 10:57 |
berndj | so they're "ahead of the curve" relative to the rest of us | 10:58 |
berndj | it makes me wonder if initial dose is also part of the explanation for differences in disease severity among non-medical staff | 10:59 |
marchelzo | almost certainly | 10:59 |
adventurer | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/coronavirus-stroke-seizures-confusion.html?smid=fb-nytimes&fbclid=IwAR21GAzqOlIjfEOJRCKfU-qaNIxxJU30mQrHXdX44uKaZrouFq-3RejReOc | 10:59 |
marchelzo | it also is in line with the study showing that stronger antibody response is associated with more severe illness | 11:00 |
marchelzo | because they start with more virus, by the time their acquired immune response kicks in they have orders of magnitude more | 11:00 |
berndj | marchelzo, like maybe we should teach people not only to wash hands, but to be slack-jawed mouth-breathers? or maybe teach them to be sophisticated nose-breathers? | 11:01 |
berndj | yeah, it's like a microcosm of the global pandemic | 11:01 |
Codsworth | but "nobody" knows where the virus came from huh | 11:01 |
Codsworth | "natural origins" | 11:01 |
mefistofeles | no need for quotes | 11:02 |
berndj | natural origins is a perfectly plausible explanation. it's also the most parsimonious one i've heard so far | 11:02 |
marchelzo | Codsworth: what's so special about the timing? | 11:03 |
Codsworth | I had breathing problems since early dec, cant even go to the doc to get checked | 11:03 |
ubLIX | have you had telephone appointment with a doctor? | 11:05 |
ubLIX | because if you're been having breathing problems for three months, and this is not normal for you, then you should speak to a doctor on the telephone | 11:05 |
Codsworth | I would but I don't feel like being quarantined over something like Ashma | 11:06 |
Codsworth | so instead, I just "hunger for air" all day | 11:06 |
adventurer | Do you have Ventolin? | 11:06 |
Codsworth | and lay down when I had a bad breathing issue | 11:06 |
adventurer | Do you have Asthma? | 11:06 |
Codsworth | I never been diagnosed with ashma but my dad has it | 11:06 |
Codsworth | i just assume thats it | 11:07 |
adventurer | Do you have a fever? | 11:07 |
Codsworth | normal feeling other than hunger for air sometimes | 11:07 |
adventurer | Do you have a thermometer? | 11:07 |
Codsworth | almost as if i cant take a breath deep enough to satasify | 11:07 |
mefistofeles | call a doctor | 11:07 |
mefistofeles | :P | 11:07 |
mefistofeles | don't get medical advice here | 11:07 |
ubLIX | for three months? | 11:07 |
adventurer | yes mefistofeles gives good advice | 11:07 |
ubLIX | call a doctor | 11:07 |
Codsworth | yea, least 3 months closer to 4 | 11:07 |
ubLIX | call a doctor 2 months ago | 11:08 |
Codsworth | I always seek medical advice on IRC | 11:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:50 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens today as Hancock says 'money is no object' — from r/WorldNews at 08:50: Australia will impose huge fines for illegally exporting medical supplies amid coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 11:08 |
Codsworth | no medical bills that way | 11:08 |
adventurer | What country are you in? | 11:08 |
Codsworth | The orange king is my leader | 11:08 |
Codsworth | I pay my taxes in cheetos | 11:08 |
ubLIX | well spend some of your cheetos on a salbutamol inhaler | 11:09 |
Codsworth | does what I descibe, sound like ashma? | 11:09 |
Codsworth | my dad has inhalers, should I borrow and try it to see if it helps | 11:10 |
ubLIX | if you really insist on avoiding a professional opinion | 11:10 |
ubLIX | jfc | 11:10 |
Codsworth | professional opinion = virus contraction | 11:10 |
adventurer | https://www.hhs.gov/answers/health-care/where-can-i-find-free-or-low-cost-health-care/index.html | 11:12 |
Timvde | I don't know if it has been posted yet, but: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ | 11:13 |
adventurer | thanks Timvde that's interesting to know | 11:15 |
adventurer | you need to breath to live Codsworth i think you should try to see a doctor | 11:15 |
Nokaji | didn't trump announce free covid treatment for all? | 11:16 |
Codsworth | I hope to as soon as I can without fear or dying, breathing problems + corona = death | 11:16 |
Codsworth | so I dont want to mix the two | 11:17 |
adventurer | you can try a phone appointment | 11:19 |
adventurer | with a doctor | 11:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2073 cases (now 1021661), +165 deaths (now 53476), +1270 recoveries (now 214795) since 32 minutes ago — Bhutan: +1 recoveries (now 2) since 3 hours ago — Belgium: +1422 cases (now 16770), +132 deaths (now 1143), +377 recoveries (now 2872) since 3 hours ago | 11:21 |
ubLIX | Codsworth: have your occasional breathing difficulties been worsening or improving over the last month? | 11:22 |
Biep[m] | <BobCat "Is there anyone in this channel "> I am not. Still visiting super markets, and haven't seen a person with a mask yet. | 11:22 |
mefistofeles | Biep[m]: where? | 11:24 |
aldwich | plenty of masks here in UK. supermarkets have queuing systems in place, with 2m distance, 1 customer out, 1 in, tills have plastic glass separators and staff wear gloves | 11:24 |
Biep[m] | Dutch/German border. Either side. | 11:25 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:20 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global confirmed cases pass 1 million as Wuhan warned to be vigilant: Australia’s medical chief says true global cases could be five to 10 million; Trump tests negative; UK vows to test 100,000 a day by end April [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 11:26 |
Biep[m] | Shopping carts are obligatory now - that is the distancing technique they use here. In Germany there are queuing spacing lines on the floor, and check-out personnel wears gloves. | 11:26 |
aldwich | floor markings here too, and shelves are getting replenished. the end of toiletroll-gate | 11:27 |
twomoon | what does 'positive in sense' mean? | 11:29 |
BobCat | Alert- NPR has just stated for the second time this hour that 1 million people have died from covid19 | 11:31 |
BobCat | I thought they would correct that after a half hgour but NOOOO | 11:32 |
BobCat | LA and NYC have asked people to cover faces with scarfs now | 11:33 |
BobCat | When Trump said that, they laughed | 11:33 |
twomoon | trump said that? | 11:34 |
BobCat | a stopped click is right twice a day | 11:34 |
BobCat | yep 2 days ago | 11:34 |
genera | twomoon, context? | 11:34 |
BobCat | Dr Fauci was saying it days ago just not officially | 11:34 |
twomoon | genera i can't remember | 11:35 |
twomoon | saw it in some paper | 11:35 |
BobCat | Dr Birx is still being an idiot and saying masks make people think they are safe | 11:35 |
genera | positive sense single strand RNA ? | 11:35 |
twomoon | is birx the hot doctor? | 11:36 |
BobCat | Hero doctor woman | 11:36 |
twomoon | yes genera | 11:36 |
mefistofeles | twomoon: wtf? | 11:36 |
twomoon | now i know what to look for thanks genera | 11:36 |
aldwich | Bobcat: reg LA and NYC, to cover one's face when outside or when in shops? | 11:36 |
genera | gud | 11:36 |
BobCat | aldwich not required, just strongly suggested | 11:37 |
BobCat | you can't really force people to do things in the USA in public places | 11:37 |
BobCat | but stores etc can refuse to let people in | 11:38 |
aldwich | BobCat: gotcha, i think masks have now become compulsory in Germany | 11:38 |
aldwich | when shopping | 11:38 |
mefistofeles | twomoon: positive sense is just the sequence that gets transcripted and eventually translated into a real protein | 11:38 |
mefistofeles | twomoon: not even, hmm, hard to phrase it... more like the sequence that corresponds directly to the translated protein, rather | 11:39 |
mefistofeles | aldwich: really? when? | 11:40 |
mefistofeles | aldwich: link? | 11:40 |
genera | mef: only in certain states afaik | 11:41 |
mefistofeles | genera: ok | 11:41 |
mefistofeles | I need to buy some groceries today | 11:41 |
dTal | ouch, good luck | 11:42 |
mefistofeles | dTal: it should be ok | 11:43 |
aldwich | mefistofeles: i beg your pardon, it was Austria that introduced that requirement, not Germany: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjhncbv-8voAhU7QRUIHUI5DnAQFjADegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Faustria-coronavirus-facemasks-mandatory-update-cases-a9438616.html&usg=AOvVaw37Lyuj0Q9d77qiyr5Po7Gx | 11:43 |
mefistofeles | aldwich: ah ok | 11:43 |
adventurer | The pessimist in me says the government wants everyone on a payment so they can then add conditions aka control everyone like carrot and stick method...we gave you money so now here is a mutual obligation we didn't mention when you first signed up | 11:45 |
BobCat | ok but how much do I get? | 11:45 |
adventurer | or maybe they are really good and taking care of everyone trying to | 11:46 |
adventurer | I don't know BobCat | 11:46 |
adventurer | in AU it it starting to sound like everyone | 11:46 |
adventurer | nearly | 11:46 |
Albright | %title https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241723786.html#storylink=bignews_related | 11:46 |
Albright | "Idaho’s Blaine County has more coronavirus cases per capita than Italy and New York City" | 11:48 |
adventurer | even if you are still working you get a payment or something | 11:48 |
Nokaji | adventurer: I think it is a reasonable assumption that the govt will be even more in our lives after (& during) this Verona Crisis thing | 11:48 |
adventurer | it's not like any government went crazy and couldn't be trusted *cough* | 11:48 |
adventurer | naa they seem like they are trying everything to help | 11:48 |
adventurer | hopefully we all get through this | 11:49 |
Albright | please don't cough in here | 11:49 |
adventurer | oh sorry | 11:49 |
adventurer | I didn't think of it like that | 11:49 |
BobCat | again wear a face mask you dumbos | 11:49 |
darsie | aldwich: mefistofeles: Yes, Austria did that. | 11:49 |
darsie | Not sure when it becomes effective. | 11:49 |
BobCat | I have been telling everyone I see for a month | 11:50 |
darsie | These days. | 11:50 |
BobCat | "oh bobcat is that weirdo with the mask..." | 11:50 |
Albright | It kills me as an ancap but I'm probably going to go ahead and file for unemployment insurance at this rate. I guess I can just view it as filing a legal claim to property which has been stolen from me. | 11:50 |
BobCat | Albright even though I think ancap is dumb, what is dumber is refusing free stuff | 11:51 |
aldwich | maybe it's more psychological, to raise everyone's awareness above all else, to make ppl more concious decisions what not to touch, to wash their hands etc. | 11:51 |
AimHere | Albright, perhaps you're living in a situation which anarchocapitalism is unable to deal with | 11:51 |
Albright | BobCat: If I steal a car from your neighbor and give it to you at no cost, do you think, "hey, cool, a free car?" | 11:52 |
BobCat | Sriracha hand sanitizer, you'll never touch your face again | 11:52 |
pwr22 | Yesterday a neighbour came by and gave me some free eggs from their cafe that is now closes | 11:52 |
pwr22 | Was nice of them, and nice to chat (at 2 meters distance) | 11:52 |
Albright | Ooh, that's brilliant, though. | 11:52 |
Albright | AimHere: Considering I'd still have at least one of my jobs if it weren't for government intervention, not quite. | 11:52 |
ecks | Spain has just passed Italy in confirmed cases | 11:52 |
BobCat | Albright having had several cars stolen from me by people who are not ancaps, does it matter? | 11:53 |
AimHere | Albright, what was the job and the government intervention? | 11:53 |
Albright | AimHere: Working in the front end of a restaurant. | 11:53 |
mefistofeles | ecks: indeed, Italy and Germany are slowing down "faster" than pain | 11:53 |
mefistofeles | spain | 11:53 |
BobCat | I'm not opposed to Anarchy though, I'm better artmed than most people | 11:54 |
BobCat | armed | 11:54 |
BobCat | and art med too | 11:54 |
AimHere | Albright, when everyone who gathers in a restaurant is swinging their fist in all of society's face, by spreading a potentially lethal disease, perhaps the non-aggression principle would warrant shutting restaurants down | 11:54 |
BobCat | AimHere has a point | 11:54 |
Albright | Oh my gosh, did you just make the fist-swinging argument? Next ask me who will build the roads. | 11:55 |
BobCat | Who will build the roads? | 11:55 |
Albright | WHOEVER WANTS A ROAD BUILT but anyway | 11:55 |
BobCat | Are you actually a capital L Libertarian? | 11:55 |
mefistofeles | Who will pick the strawberries? | 11:55 |
AimHere | Albright, I made the fist-swinging argument in what is a novel situation where economic activity - the type that ancaps like - IS the swinging fist | 11:56 |
Albright | BobCat: If by that you mean a member of a Libertarian party, no. | 11:56 |
AimHere | You're moaning about the government stopping you spreading a plague | 11:56 |
BobCat | Oh some guy on NPR is defending the PRC over this | 11:57 |
AimHere | What's the ancap solution to this pandemic? Let the plague kill whoever it will? | 11:58 |
BobCat | Well, do we really need those 70 million brown people? | 11:59 |
BobCat | might be 350M though, stats look bad in the 1st world so far | 12:00 |
Albright | AimHere: Give people the choice to stay home if they want. If they choose to risk getting sick, and they get sick, well, that is the consequence of their choice. | 12:00 |
BobCat | so maybe 70 million white, 120Mbrown, 120M black | 12:01 |
AimHere | But people need to work to survived, do they not? | 12:01 |
AimHere | At least in ancap-world | 12:01 |
Albright | If that was in response to me, yes, of course. | 12:01 |
AimHere | And the upshot is that their choice is work, and risk getting plague, or not work, and starve | 12:01 |
BobCat | NPR has just said .25M diagnosed in USA | 12:01 |
blkshp | 80% pay from the gov if you can't work here. | 12:01 |
AimHere | Famine or Pestilence, two of the horsemen. That's your choice | 12:02 |
blkshp | Plus you can also go and get another job if you want to and get that pay too! | 12:02 |
BobCat | Comes a Pale Rider... | 12:02 |
Albright | Exactly. Currently, famine is being forced upon me. | 12:02 |
AimHere | Albright, you're being paid by the government to not work | 12:02 |
BobCat | I have over a month of food left | 12:03 |
Albright | Not yet. | 12:03 |
BobCat | $200 worth | 12:03 |
aldwich | AimHere: if we view this pandemic as one massive negative externality, gov should step in. it would be a perverse situation when ppl are forced to work thus exposing themselves not only but also risking infecting others as well. that cannot in in public interest | 12:03 |
AimHere | Albright, maybe there's a bureaucratic hassle, but it's far more of an answer than the anarchocapitalist 'solution' | 12:03 |
Albright | AimHere: Or maybe it's the government offering a solution to a problem they created. | 12:03 |
AimHere | Albright, the problem they created being the pandemic? | 12:04 |
Albright | No. Making people not work. | 12:04 |
AimHere | Making people not work is the solution to the problem of every form of social contact being potentially lethal for millions of people | 12:04 |
python476 | o/ | 12:04 |
mefistofeles | hey python476 | 12:05 |
python476 | hey mefisto | 12:05 |
aldwich | agreed. and it be very costly to implement that swiftly and comprehensively | 12:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2766 cases (now 1030122), +135 deaths (now 54199), +13 recoveries (now 218586) since 23 minutes ago — Latvia: +1 deaths (now 1) since 23 minutes ago — Iran: +2715 cases (now 53183), +134 deaths (now 3294) since 23 minutes ago | 12:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:03 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens today as Hancock says 'money is no object' — from r/WorldNews at 10:03: Coronavirus re-emerges in county in China → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 12:10 |
adventurer | Singapore seems to be doing well | 12:16 |
adventurer | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore | 12:16 |
mefistofeles | yes | 12:17 |
Mumuks[m] | What is the opinion about hydroxy chloroquine here? | 12:18 |
python476 | wait n see ? | 12:19 |
aldwich | Singapore is a stickler for hygiene. the whole place spotless, plus given the size of it, much easier to manage even at micro/household level | 12:19 |
python476 | people say singapore climate helped too | 12:20 |
aldwich | I think they learned from and planned post SARS, so they were prepared for that and had measures in place. | 12:22 |
mefistofeles | Mumuks[m]: "might do nothing, might do some good" | 12:22 |
mefistofeles | aldwich: they were also prepared for this since last sars | 12:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +727 cases (now 1030849), +14 deaths (now 54213), +1224 recoveries (now 219810) since 19 minutes ago — Romania: +445 cases (now 3183) since 19 minutes ago — Iran: +1224 recoveries (now 17935) since 19 minutes ago | 12:23 |
mefistofeles | aldwich: ah you said that already, srry | 12:23 |
Mumuks[m] | <aldwich "I think they learned from and pl"> Same as Vietnam, Asians were hit very hard by SARS and learnt the lesson | 12:23 |
python476 | aldwich: that too yeah | 12:24 |
mefistofeles | that's the main thing, tbh | 12:24 |
aldwich | nw, the question thus is, why was the west so complacent about this? i remember back in Dec/Jan when the Wuhan story emerged, it was a side story in the news outlets and no apparent gov planning/preparing for the worst. | 12:25 |
mefistofeles | aldwich: there was no time, no way you could prepare for this even since first case in Wuhan | 12:25 |
mefistofeles | I mean, most of them did what they could, imho | 12:26 |
mefistofeles | ok, some of them | 12:26 |
aldwich | the UK did not. they played it down. then came up with the idea of "herd immunity" while numbers were starting to increase in Italy | 12:26 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:17 UTC: Covid-19 lockdown causes record fall in eurozone business activity - business live: Composite PMI data showed the Eurozone suffered its largest ever monthly drop in business activity in March, as the Covid-19 outbreak gained pace [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SfTBF4 | 12:26 |
aldwich | Germany prepared, albeit a bit late, but their infrastructure is quite good. 3 times as many ICUs than in UK. UK again did nothig, suggested washing hands and singing "happy birthday" twice. | 12:27 |
aldwich | Brainstorm: let's wait till US non-farm payrolls in a few hours. i expect carnage. US claimant count doubled for March. that's pretty unprecedented. | 12:29 |
Mumuks[m] | <aldwich "nw, the question thus is, why wa"> Because they believed the information from China and that was a big mistake | 12:29 |
Mumuks[m] | I think the west has learned the lesson of not trusting China when it comes to medical situations. The rest of Asia knew what was up and ignored what China was saying | 12:29 |
aldwich | there is an element of truth in that. their economic data were always a bit "dressed up" to put it mildly. we only have to look at the way they treated the whistleblower GP | 12:31 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:38 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll as Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 10:38: Asian cardinal says Chinese Communist Party to blame for covering up COVID-19 → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 12:42 |
adventurer | wikipedia is so stupid people spend all this time referencing state data for some other people to just delete their references and change the numbers | 12:47 |
aldwich | FT wrote: "The IHS Markit UK purchasing managers’ index for services, which account for 80 per cent of the economy, crashed to 34.5 in March, down from 53.2 in February, marking the lowest reading since records began in 1996." - https://www.ft.com/content/e8c47f34-32b7-44b3-8e8a-102f9d6c2ae6 | 12:47 |
adventurer | my faith in random humans operating an encyclopedia has been diminished | 12:47 |
adventurer | oh well | 12:48 |
Urchin | the paradoxical thing about epidemics is that they end up not serious if you really take them seriously from the start | 12:51 |
aldwich | We should start adding up the total economic emergency measures taken right across the planet, this thing is bigger than the 08/09 financial crisis. | 12:54 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:50 UTC: Coronavirus map of the US: latest cases state by state: Coronavirus: world map of deaths and cases C oronavirus – latest global updates See all our coronavirus coverage The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 continues to grow in the US. Mike Pence, the vice-president, is overseeing the US response to the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/R3xYSu | 12:58 |
aldwich | UK health minister Matt Hancock called it a once in a century event. He is most likely wrong. Black swan events like that are more frequent than we think/hope. So gov't and businesses need to prepare for that. a great deal to be learned from this one in the yars to come. but then it should not be about pointing fingers but get a global task force to combat future occurrences | 12:58 |
Nokaji | he's almost right, it's only the third one this century | 13:06 |
Nokaji | or is it the fourth? ... so many I'm losing count | 13:07 |
Nokaji | bird flu, pig flu, sars, mers, covid | 13:07 |
flux1 | Nokaji: what do you consider an event? covid certainly overshadows them all, perhaps putting it into a category of its own? | 13:12 |
berndj | i'd say it's still below the "spanish" flu | 13:13 |
berndj | perhaps only because we're more able to manage it; if this had happened in 1918 it might have been as bad or worse | 13:13 |
Nokaji | flux1: well, I guess it depends what your definition of "it" is (boy, that sounds familiar) | 13:13 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll as Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 11:05: Brazil has determined that a woman who died on January 23 was infected with coronavirus, more than a month before South America's first confirmed case → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 13:14 |
adventurer | I guess mosst people are just stupid that's why wiki is stupid I include myself, it's just stupid to see people do all thi work that gets reversed and changed with no new references in it though | 13:15 |
adventurer | oh well | 13:15 |
Nokaji | the bulk of these are coming from china since it opened its doors to the world, iirc - I'd suspect that trend barring any change, is set to continue | 13:15 |
Nokaji | plus, some suggest covid will be knocking on our doors again next season and every year thereafter | 13:16 |
aldwich | maybe we had a 10-yar dry spell and were just lucky. I agree regarding frequency, pandemics are here to stay and we should not discount them as 1 in a million extraordinary events. | 13:19 |
Nokaji | the odds of the next one striking before we've finished paying for this one, are extraordinarily high I'd say | 13:27 |
yuriwho | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE39Ixulg64 | 13:28 |
yuriwho | %t | 13:28 |
Brainstorm | yuriwho: From www.youtube.com: 'Stigmatised': India's coronavirus 'heroes' come under attack - YouTube | 13:28 |
berndj | what's different about now than 20 years ago? | 13:28 |
flux1 | interesting visualization: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Norway&location=South+Korea&location=Sweden | 13:28 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:23 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens as Prince Charles hails 'extraordinary collaboration' — from r/WorldNews at 11:23: Brazil has determined that a woman who died on January 23 was infected with coronavirus, more than a month before South America's first confirmed case → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 13:30 |
Nokaji | berndj: two possibles are possibly china (trade) & weather & austerity (oh, that's three) | 13:31 |
berndj | we traded 20 years ago too. maybe not so much with china but there's 6 billion of us non-chinese | 13:32 |
berndj | i don't think the world has been disconnected enough to prevent regional epidemics from becoming global pandemics in 100 years or so | 13:33 |
berndj | the only difference the incremental connection makes is that a disease reaches further a little bit faster, but it doesn't make it more infectious | 13:34 |
Nokaji | okay, china didn't have a Level 4 Bio Lab 20 yrs ago | 13:34 |
berndj | hah, that too, but i think the more parsimonious explanation is just a zoonosis from that gross market | 13:35 |
Nokaji | the hygiene levels in UK alone in past 20yrs, has dropped significantly | 13:40 |
aldwich | in general or in hospitals? | 13:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:34 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll as Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 11:34: Brazil has determined that a woman who died on January 23 was infected with coronavirus, more than a month before South America's first confirmed case → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 13:46 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Coronavirus could trigger biggest fall in carbon emissions since World War Two (10167 votes) | https://redd.it/fu35l5 | 13:48 |
oriba | RKI says in press conference: we have more than 100 mio cases... but it's about 1.03 mio cases. | 13:53 |
berndj | the air in my city is visibly clearer | 13:54 |
farn | oriba: NPR said that we've had a million deaths | 13:55 |
python476 | not if you don't count them | 13:58 |
Nokaji | aldwich: in general, ppl not only spit everywhere but they eject contents of their nasal passages by pressing one finger to block one, then blowing out the other onto the street ... plus so much more | 13:59 |
Biep[m] | <oriba "RKI says in press conference: we"> I think the 100,000,000 is a good guess. At least 1% of the world population has been infected, I guess. | 14:00 |
Nokaji | aldwich: and ... in shops ... it used to be a requirement that bought food got packaged in food-grade bags at the till, now everyone brings their re-sued, bateria-ridden filth-bags and wipes them all over the conveyor belts and counters ... food that used to be kept separate (dairy and meat) all goes in same bag etc | 14:01 |
aldwich | Nokaji: I see what you mean. But there's one thing I noticed over the past decade. Less and less chewing gum (=spitting) is on the pavement. Guess is down to the overall reduction of smoking cigarettes. oh, and btw, I would never ever touch beet nuts ... | 14:01 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:54 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: emergency Nightingale hospital opens as Prince Charles hails 'extraordinary collaboration' [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 14:02 |
Nokaji | true - hadn't thought about gum but we do have a fair number of streets covered in dog poop plus at itmes it is impossible to navigate a street without passing everyone refuse bin | 14:03 |
aldwich | even basic things like washing hands used to be "optional" even in office environments. I do remember many times when guys left the gents, zipped up and left, and no hand washing in between, next thing you know those same hands were in the communcal fruit bowl. yikes^2 | 14:04 |
aldwich | then we had a case of food poisoning in the office and ever since this stopped, now everyone washes their hands. but that's a sample size of one office... | 14:05 |
Nokaji | yes, hand-washing crossed my mind ... it has also been only recently where, for a while, you could go in a shop and the staff literally stank from lack of hygiene ... and they are handling food in some of these shops | 14:05 |
Nokaji | seems that was clamped done on but it was a thing not so far back | 14:06 |
Nokaji | down* | 14:06 |
Nokaji | I said at the time when they stopped providing free carrier bags, that the potential cost to out health services in disease, for the sake of a penny bag, could prove immense | 14:07 |
Nokaji | our* | 14:07 |
Nokaji | and lost work hours | 14:07 |
aradesh | just went to the shop - i saw a take away open, and a car washing place open, with a group of about 6 or 7 of the car washers all standing together in a group outside with no customers | 14:08 |
aradesh | very good adherance to the rules from our migrant community here. | 14:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1845 cases (now 1032694), +99 deaths (now 54312), +201 recoveries (now 220011) since an hour ago — Portugal: +852 cases (now 9886), +37 deaths (now 246) since an hour ago — Sweden: +510 cases (now 6078), +25 deaths (now 333) since an hour ago | 14:08 |
aldwich | but are reusable bags a threat? a virus might survive on the surface for a while. but that these bags might contribute towards the spreading? not sure tbh | 14:08 |
Nokaji | the bags are no longer food-grade, some ppl have atrocious habits and the meat and dairy has no longer been kept inside an additional bag, inside that carrier ... food will break off and decay, mould & bacteria form and get dropped/wiped on food counter belts and packing areas | 14:10 |
Nokaji | they've measured time a virus can survive on plastic, and it is more than long enough to cause a problem and be recirculated to others via a shop vector | 14:12 |
Nokaji | it doesn't have to happen too frequently, one person infected is more than enoough | 14:12 |
Nokaji | you have hundreds of ppl per hour going through each till | 14:13 |
Nokaji | last few times I hit a food shop, most of the staff had symptoms of illness | 14:13 |
Nokaji | it's false economy | 14:14 |
aldwich | tills are a hot zone in my opinion. was in the supermarket 2 weeks back. the cashier had a running nose. she had a tissue with her whch she used but afterwards did not use hand sanitizer. so when i was back home, i wiped down all (!) packaging top to bottom with wipes and called the store manager to address this. that really peeved me off | 14:15 |
blkshp | yay for scan and go | 14:17 |
aldwich | second that. now the contactless card limits have been increased. that helps a great deal. was GBP30, now GBP45 | 14:17 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:09 UTC: Recession looms as UK business activity hits record low - business live: Composite PMI data shows UK business activity sunk to a record low in March following the Covid-19 lockdown [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SfTBF4 | 14:18 |
code-glitch | aradesh UK? | 14:20 |
Nokaji | oh ... shout-out for waitrose ... was in their car park when I saw a staff member use a food trolley when emptying the bins ... he put/collected the plastic rubbish bags in the trolley | 14:22 |
blkshp | oh lovely | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Zambia: +2 recoveries (now 2) since 12 hours ago — World: +2059 cases (now 1034753), +165 deaths (now 54477), +12 recoveries (now 220023) since 19 minutes ago — Japan: +42 recoveries (now 514) since 2 hours ago | 14:23 |
aldwich | blkshp: i use my physical bank card not the phone. the phone i leave at home not to accidentally touch the surface. my wallet is in the hot zone so to speak. whenever i touched it, i wash my hands. | 14:25 |
blkshp | I'm not being quite that careful if im honest | 14:25 |
code-glitch | Me neither :\ | 14:26 |
aldwich | maybe i am overdoing this, quite possible. the numbers in my area are low and my neighbours are generally all adhering to the rules. so the risk is minimal. yet, residual | 14:27 |
blkshp | MY wallet doesn't touch anything and 90% of the time these days sits in the house, if im going out for a walk i don't take it and don't even take my keys, just a single key in a running thing i have for my wrist. | 14:27 |
blkshp | aldwich: if you feel comfortable doing it that way it's not overdoing it | 14:27 |
aldwich | blkshp: it does feel unnatural but keeps me on my toes. the biggest threat was having to take public transport to work, that luckily stopped. that is germ-central | 14:29 |
Nokaji | it's hard todo enough in a shop ... if you assume everything you touch is infected, you hve to pack it all and then unpack it when you get home etc ... even your bottle of hand gel is gonna get contaminated | 14:29 |
Nokaji | as is wherever you keep the bottle | 14:29 |
aldwich | if food packaging would be contaminated, that'd be an issue. one way around that would be to wipe all off before unpacking. i saw the supermarket staff using all blue gloves. as long as they don't touch their face - assuming again they'd be infected - that should be less of an issue. but 100% safety does not exist, maybe in a research lab where they work on the virus | 14:33 |
berndj | aldwich, the main thing is to adopt habits so that your (averaged over many people acting the same way) personal R0 is less than 1. ideally zero, but 0.1 is okay too, and it's better than 0.2 which is better than 0.99 which is still better than 2.5 | 14:34 |
berndj | that final "still better" should read: "still A LOT better" | 14:35 |
aldwich | berndj: absolutely agree. if we could only fast-forward in time, very curious to see whether the social distancing measures will have made an impact in 1-2 week's time. i am quite optimistic on that actually | 14:37 |
berndj | aldwich, i used to be optimistic but i'm not so sure anymore; it seems like italy battled mightily to get things under control (have they even turned the corner now? i think so, but am not sure or up to date on things) | 14:38 |
berndj | i'm really getting behind the idea of masks being all but mandatory to squash this thing, despite "ordinary plebs don't need to wear masks" messaging | 14:40 |
aldwich | well, I had my hopes up 2 days ago when the WHO numbers for Europe seemed to slow, then the jump in Spain and France. | 14:40 |
Nokaji | they wear the same gloves all day - prolly empty the bins with them etc | 14:40 |
berndj | yeah spain looks like it's Italy 2.0 at this point | 14:40 |
AimHere | Belgium and Holland are playing their part | 14:41 |
AimHere | Pro-rated by population, they're as bad as Spain/Italy | 14:41 |
AimHere | Or nearly, at least | 14:41 |
Nokaji | no way I'd go into a supermarket etc without full battle gear | 14:42 |
aldwich | they should hurry up and get comprehensive testing in place for all NHS battlefront staff. otherwise it'll be Italy all over again | 14:42 |
AimHere | inb4 Trump swoops in and buys up all the test kits everywhere | 14:43 |
AimHere | You can bet that policy of intercepting PPE shipments was reported straight to him | 14:44 |
aldwich | haha. he tried that with a German manufacturer/lab that is doing medical research to find a cure. they hold olde Donny on yer bike. no chance US will get a monopoly or first dips on any antidote | 14:44 |
AimHere | Yeah, but he's succeeding with mask shipments | 14:44 |
AimHere | Crates are being bought off at 3x market rates, while on the runaways | 14:45 |
aldwich | are we talking here ordinary surgical masks or the specific type made my M3 with filter and all? | 14:46 |
AimHere | Don't read German, but it seems to be FFP2/FFP3 standard - the European equivalent | 14:47 |
AimHere | to the N25 | 14:47 |
aldwich | then i know which ones you mean. these are the ones with filter. | 14:47 |
berndj | did iran just stop counting or did they actually get this under control? | 14:47 |
aradesh | code-glitch: yeah, UK | 14:48 |
AimHere | berndj, good question. It's been a linear increase for weeks now. It does look odd. | 14:49 |
AimHere | It doesn't look like either to me. A bottleneck in death reporting would be my guess | 14:49 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson forced to self-isolate for longer; London's emergency Nightingale hospital opens — from r/WorldNews at 12:39: NHS Trusts 'Are Sending Swabs To Germany For Coronavirus Checks Because The Results Are Quicker' → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 14:50 |
genera | hrhr | 14:50 |
aldwich | totally missed that. US unemployment rate now at 4.4% for March. was 3.5% in feb., their labour market is cr*pping out | 14:51 |
aldwich | US: 700k jobs lost in early March | 14:52 |
aldwich | source: https://www.ft.com/content/ba60772b-0bd3-3fdd-9b77-20dd8fcdcbef | 14:52 |
Nokaji | P2 is equiv to N95 etc, P3 is more akin to N99/100 | 14:52 |
Nokaji | NIOSH | 14:52 |
python476 | still no call from city hall | 14:59 |
python476 | should call them again | 15:00 |
Nokaji | there's also a popular mask that takes a disposable PM2.5 filter | 15:02 |
prathux[m] | How to add that covid bot to other groups ? | 15:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American at 13:00 UTC: Health: Coronavirus Disrupts Vital Field Research--Including Disease Transmission Work — from r/WorldNews at 13:00: NHS Trusts 'Are Sending Swabs To Germany For Coronavirus Checks Because The Results Are Quicker' → https://is.gd/eWpcd1 | 15:06 |
X-Scale | https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/04/02/why-you-should-flush-with-the-lid-down-virologist-warns-of-fecal-oral-transmission-of-covid-19/ | 15:07 |
aradesh | 684 today in the UK... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/03/uk-coronavirus-live-emergency-nightingale-hospital-opens-today-matt-hancock-covid-19-latest-updates?page=with:block-5e86e5708f08532a0e66726c | 15:15 |
aradesh | >900 for spain | 15:16 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:10 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll reaches 3,605, a record daily rise of 684 — from r/WorldNews at 13:10: YouTube profits from videos promoting unproven Covid-19 treatments - New report finds company is running ads on videos pushing herbs and potentially unsafe over-the-counter treatments for virus → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 15:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5073 cases (now 1039826), +705 deaths (now 55182), +66 recoveries (now 220089) since an hour ago — United Kingdom: +4450 cases (now 38168), +684 deaths (now 3605) since an hour ago — Serbia: +305 cases (now 1476), +8 deaths (now 39) since an hour ago | 15:23 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:27 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll in four days; Wuhan residents told to stay indoors [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 15:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | germany: R(0)=1 | 15:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | \o/ | 15:37 |
LjL | For some Chinese definition of "told"? | 15:38 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05: how do you figure that? Or was it announced? | 15:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +764 cases (now 1040590), +7 deaths (now 55189), +16 recoveries (now 220105) since 19 minutes ago — Germany: +764 cases (now 86667), +7 deaths (now 1129) since an hour ago — Singapore: +16 recoveries (now 282) since an hour ago | 15:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | official | 15:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I already figured it since 3 days | 15:38 |
LjL | I wonder why lockdowns work so well anywhere that isn't Italy | 15:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | platteau at ~7k/d | 15:39 |
aldwich | RKI? | 15:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yep | 15:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, ARD/ZDF | 15:40 |
aldwich | thanks ;-) thats good enough | 15:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | RKI it's obvious: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/ | 15:40 |
LjL | And my puter ran out of battery despite being plugged in, bleh | 15:40 |
sYN4P515 | !corona eu | 15:41 |
CoronaBot | Europe: Global rank: #-, cases: 537,540 (+18,654), fatalities: 39,797 (+1,735), active cases: 400,783, total recovered: 96,960, in a serious condition: 25,796. Mortality: 7.40%, case fatality rate: 29.10%, cases/1M: 900.6, deaths/1M: 66.7. Case rate: 32,608/24h, death rate: 4,375/24h, 1st case: -. | 15:41 |
jacklsw | !corona my | 15:43 |
CoronaBot | Malaysia: Global rank: #27, cases: 3,333 (+217), fatalities: 53 (+3), active cases: 2,453, total recovered: 827, in a serious condition: 108. Mortality: 1.59%, case fatality rate: 6.02%, cases/1M: 103.0, deaths/1M: 2.0. Case rate: 208/24h, death rate: 5/24h, 1st case: -. | 15:43 |
LjL | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-president-coronavirus-lockdown-shoot-people-dead/ he does seem to be a bit of a one-solution-for-every-problem kind of person | 15:43 |
jacklsw | duterte - following kim jong un? | 15:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | shoot people down to protect them from fatality by virus. Makes so much sense | 15:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | what's next? fuck for virginity? | 15:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | war against war? | 15:49 |
bin_bash | those things already happen | 15:49 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll reaches 3,605, a record daily rise of 684 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 15:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Austria: +145 cases (now 11383), +10 deaths (now 168) since 4 hours ago — Denmark: +16 deaths (now 139), +104 recoveries (now 1193) since 4 hours ago — Croatia: +68 cases (now 1079), +1 deaths (now 8), +4 recoveries (now 92) since 4 hours ago | 15:53 |
aradesh | LjL: i don't think they're working well here | 15:56 |
aradesh | LjL: as i said, i went out today and saw a take-away open, and a hand-car wash place open | 15:57 |
LjL | :\ | 15:57 |
LjL | also why the hell did the bot send the above update... pff | 15:57 |
LjL | yuriwho, https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200331/p2a/00m/0na/021000c "But why is it necessary for people to stop smoking as part of efforts to prevent both the spread of the virus to others and to reduce their own risk of heavy symptoms?" ← nice way to spin that paper in a way it was not meant to, while interviewing a doctor who "offers online treatment to quit smoking" | 16:07 |
Nokaji | Bojo says he's served his seven days in solitary confinement however still has a high temp, so continues to isolate ... to put that another way ... seven days isolation isn't sufficient | 16:08 |
LjL | that's a way to put it that's not what i believe the UK government is doing | 16:10 |
LjL | seven days, *and then* seven more days if you develop symptoms, iirc | 16:10 |
LjL | most countries just use 14 days | 16:10 |
Nokaji | That could be, I'm just reporting what he has said personally, as interpretted in part by the radio | 16:11 |
Nokaji | apparently bonnie prince charles was wondering about all over the place after his seven days but now seems to be back to self-incarceration | 16:12 |
LjL | people who don't develop symptoms, or develop them late, do seem to be a problem with a 7+7 day policy | 16:12 |
yuriwho | LjL: anything that reduces lung function is a risk factor, smoking adds several other risks | 16:13 |
LjL | yuriwho, sure, but the paper specifically hinted that quitting smoking makes things worse | 16:13 |
Nokaji | both Bojo & Charlie would have staff waiting on them hand and foot and thus qualify under the '14 day for family' thing | 16:13 |
yuriwho | thats unknown | 16:14 |
Nokaji | they were recommending to quit (I forget who) | 16:14 |
yuriwho | not enough data on the smoker/former smoker to say anything concrete yet, I would still advise to stop smoking at this point | 16:15 |
Nokaji | or at the very least, cut down | 16:16 |
Nokaji | Chinese numbers!- china regularly reports circa 140 flu deaths per year, chinese statisticians put this as more likely to be circa 80,000+ - https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml | 16:16 |
Nokaji | ^ make that 'flu-related' deaths, to be pedantic | 16:20 |
Butterfly^ | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/ | 16:24 |
Butterfly^ | y'all need a title bot | 16:25 |
Butterfly^ | ^ title bot | 16:26 |
Butterfly^ | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/ | 16:26 |
TinaS | Title: Bodies pile up on streets in Ecuador as coronavirus spreads - CBS News (at www.cbsnews.com) | 16:26 |
LjL | i don't think we do, i prefer people to either describe what they're posting, instead of just dropping URLs, or else use %title manually if they think it warranted | 16:27 |
Debbie-Tester | !corona US | 16:28 |
CoronaBot | USA: Global rank: #1, cases: 245,442 (+565), fatalities: 6,099 (+29), active cases: 228,932, total recovered: 10,411, in a serious condition: 5,421. Mortality: 2.48%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 742.0, deaths/1M: 18.0. Case rate: 29,874/24h, death rate: 968/24h, 1st case: -. | 16:28 |
Butterfly^ | !corona UK | 16:30 |
CoronaBot | UK: Global rank: #8, cases: 38,168 (+4,450), fatalities: 3,605 (+684), active cases: 34,428, total recovered: 135, in a serious condition: 163. Mortality: 9.45%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 562.0, deaths/1M: 53.0. Case rate: 4,244/24h, death rate: 569/24h, 1st case: -. | 16:30 |
Butterfly^ | !corona spain | 16:30 |
CoronaBot | Spain: Global rank: #2, cases: 117,710 (+5,645), fatalities: 10,935 (+587), active cases: 76,262, total recovered: 30,513, in a serious condition: 6,416. Mortality: 9.29%, case fatality rate: 26.38%, cases/1M: 2518.0, deaths/1M: 234.0. Case rate: 7,947/24h, death rate: 961/24h, 1st case: -. | 16:30 |
Butterfly^ | auch | 16:30 |
Butterfly^ | !corona italy | 16:30 |
CoronaBot | Italy: Global rank: #3, cases: 115,242, fatalities: 13,915, active cases: 83,049, total recovered: 18,278, in a serious condition: 4,053. Mortality: 12.07%, case fatality rate: 43.22%, cases/1M: 1906.0, deaths/1M: 230.0. Case rate: 4,668/24h, death rate: 760/24h, 1st case: -. | 16:30 |
Butterfly^ | mortality rates at 10% | 16:30 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:14 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll in four days; Wuhan residents told to stay indoors — from r/WorldNews at 14:14: Bill Gates funding the construction of factories for 7 different vaccines to fight coronavirus → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 16:31 |
TinaS | Title: Coronavirus live news: Spain records first drop in daily death toll in four days; Wuhan residents told to stay indoors | World news | The Guardian (at is.gd) | 16:31 |
Shock | !corona Netherlands | 16:32 |
ecks | finally a bot that says exactly the same thing as another bot | 16:32 |
CoronaBot | The Netherlands: Global rank: #12, cases: 15,723 (+1,026), fatalities: 1,487 (+148), active cases: 13,986, total recovered: 250, in a serious condition: 1,182. Mortality: 9.46%, case fatality rate: 85.61%, cases/1M: 918.0, deaths/1M: 87.0. Case rate: 1,083/24h, death rate: 166/24h, 1st case: -. | 16:32 |
LjL | Butterfly^, please part the bot, i got the point, but we already have that available if we want it... which tbh, i don't | 16:32 |
LjL | we're already having an excess proliferation of bots | 16:32 |
Butterfly^ | hmm, ok | 16:32 |
Butterfly^ | the one bot i find most useful in any channel, is a title bot :) it freaking sucks having to click links to find out what it was about | 16:33 |
Butterfly^ | but ok, gimme a few minutes, i'll remove it again | 16:33 |
LjL | yes, that's why people should make it part of a discussion, not just drop it there. i see it as a suboptimal technical solution to a social problem (suboptimal because in many cases it *is* clear that the url is, and then it just spams the channel) | 16:34 |
LjL | plus, Matrix users would have to ignore it as they already have a built-in method to preview URLs, and most users are on Matrix in this channel | 16:34 |
Butterfly^ | half the time URLs aren't really that descriptive | 16:35 |
Albright | %title http://schools.nyc.gov/freemeals | 16:36 |
Brainstorm | Albright: From schools.nyc.gov: Free Meals | 16:36 |
TinaS | Title: Free Meals (at schools.nyc.gov) | 16:36 |
LjL | your client can describe them, and if it can't, you may consider another client. i really don't see this as something that shoule be done on the channel side. anyway, we all have different preferences, and last time there was a discussion about what bots should do, there were many *incompatible* suggestions. so at the end of the day, i decide. | 16:36 |
Albright | NYC is going to give three free meals a day to all citizens. No word on when the circuses start. | 16:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +578 cases (now 1041774), +18 deaths (now 55222), +92 recoveries (now 222332) since 35 minutes ago — Chile: +333 cases (now 3737), +4 deaths (now 22), +92 recoveries (now 427) since 35 minutes ago — Dominican Republic: +108 cases (now 1488), +8 deaths (now 68) since 35 minutes ago | 16:38 |
Fitbin | % | 16:39 |
aldwich | just heard Singapore is planning for a full shut-down, all biz to close, only essentials to stay open. any info? | 16:44 |
LjL | aldwich, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore#April_2020 | 16:46 |
LjL | "The authorities will no longer dissuade the general public from using masks and will distribute reusable masks to every household" | 16:46 |
LjL | sigh. i wonder how long the tail of people still "dissuading" others from using masks will be, while slowly every government starts encouraging them after dissuading from them. | 16:47 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:29 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: hospital death toll reaches 3,605, a record daily rise of 684 — from r/WorldNews at 14:29: Bill Gates funding the construction of factories for 7 different vaccines to fight coronavirus → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 16:47 |
blkshp | still gon't get the point of the masks unless you are infected or by someone else who is | 16:48 |
aldwich | LjL: thanks | 16:48 |
ketas | Seismometers Worldwide Detect Decrease in Human Activity Amid Coronavirus Lockdowns | 16:49 |
ketas | that's fun | 16:49 |
LjL | blkshp, well the point is that i find it very likely (and so do some studies) that any type of masks protects you to some degree, even the ones that aren't really made for that, like surgical ones. | 16:49 |
blkshp | but how | 16:50 |
blkshp | it's not airborne | 16:50 |
blkshp | and unless you're in the path of someone coughing or you need it to stop licking furniture, i dont get it | 16:50 |
LjL | we have no idea it's not airborne | 16:51 |
LjL | if anything we have studies suggesting it may well be, at least in some circumstances | 16:51 |
LjL | i am yet to see a study that *shows* it's *not* airborne | 16:51 |
blkshp | I think we do and if it were, the lockdown's probably a little pointless | 16:51 |
LjL | and WHO's guesses don't count as studies | 16:51 |
aldwich | but can't droplets travel up to 7 meters or so? remember some footage on BBC last night i think it was. | 16:51 |
LjL | sure they can | 16:51 |
blkshp | hmm, and maybe you're more likely to pick that up if you are wearing a paper mask that's become moist because you've worn it all day | 16:52 |
LjL | https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52126735 even the WHO is "reopening discussion" on the matter | 16:52 |
aldwich | so these masks may actually work. the problem i see is that ppl don't use them correctly and by handling them with little care might inadvertedly infect themselves | 16:52 |
ketas | i don't wear respiratory or eye protection nor do i disinfect my hands, clothing or grocery... easy to fail there | 16:53 |
blkshp | I disinfect my hands of course because there's a proven benefit and there's clearly no negative. | 16:54 |
ketas | errr wearing that virus collector on your nose for days! | 16:54 |
blkshp | precisely | 16:54 |
ketas | oh of course there is benefit | 16:54 |
LjL | blkshp, actually washing or disinfecting your hands too often can lead to dryness, which in turn can allow pathogens to proliferate on their surfaces. now, as far as COVID-19 is concerned, i'm pretty sure it's best to wash your hands, but there *are* negatives. | 16:55 |
ketas | don't dry them out | 16:55 |
blkshp | YEs and that's why i use a moisturising soap | 16:55 |
ketas | and lotions | 16:55 |
blkshp | no lotions | 16:55 |
blkshp | Though that's not a bad cal. | 16:56 |
ketas | but at time you need lotions it's way too much washing | 16:56 |
ketas | meh alcohol is good solvent | 16:56 |
blkshp | i did notice a bit of cracking on my right hand nuckles that;s why i switched soap! :) | 16:57 |
ketas | damn hard to be sterile | 16:58 |
blkshp | This is why i don't wash my hair everyday | 16:58 |
ketas | how often? | 16:58 |
LjL | blkshp, anyway, maybe wearing masks helps, making in some cases not (like if they become wet). even under the assumption there are studies hinting towards both directions (honestly i only remember seeing ones in the direction of using masks, while on the other side, i've mostly just seen arguments by authorities), there is also the objective fact that the countries that are seemingly getting the pandemic under some control are the ones where people tend to | 16:58 |
LjL | consistently wear masks. now correlation is not causation, but when you have studies pointing both ways, and it is a rather pressing matter to decide what to do, i'd say this kind of correlation should definitely be considered. | 16:58 |
blkshp | usually every other, sometimes 3 but i also have that dry stuff for on the run emergency days lol | 16:59 |
LjL | s/making/maybe/ | 16:59 |
ketas | i don't like showers | 16:59 |
blkshp | considered, yes | 17:00 |
penny_ | i like showering too much | 17:01 |
blkshp | Don't use the computer in the shower :D | 17:01 |
LjL | yeah, like, considered *and* not dismissed. | 17:02 |
LjL | the null hypothesis really isn't "masks don't help" here. | 17:02 |
blkshp | It is of my opinion that the wearing of masks does not make sufficient contribution during todays restructions that I will advocate the wearing of them. I do not say "they don't work" i say "I think they dont work or cause more harm" and only in a venue where people will not take my suggestion as gospel. | 17:04 |
blkshp | Just to be clear. People make up your own minds. | 17:05 |
blkshp | And another thing.... | 17:06 |
blkshp | Lactose free milk does not froth for a cappuccino. :D | 17:07 |
ketas | you should not adjust or take mask off and put back on | 17:07 |
CovidfefeRoey | blkshp why are you always causing trouble in all your channels?? | 17:08 |
ketas | hell knows how much it helps usual people without any medical knowledge | 17:08 |
CovidfefeRoey | pffffft joking joking | 17:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3104 cases (now 1044878), +108 deaths (now 55330) since 39 minutes ago — Germany: +1564 cases (now 88808), +55 deaths (now 1193) since an hour ago — US: +1477 cases (now 246919), +54 deaths (now 6152) since an hour ago | 17:08 |
blkshp | :O | 17:08 |
ketas | how to cause blkshp lose what little self esteem he had | 17:09 |
penny_ | i use some petroleum jelly after washing my hands works very well to keep the skin from cracking | 17:09 |
Mumuks[m] | Masks are somehow useful, they are not the end all but help. The reason they are saying not to wear a mask is because everybody starts wearing a masks, medical personal won't have enough, that's it, that's the reason for all this stupid controversy | 17:09 |
Nokaji | there is a correlation between nations wearing masks and those who have best controlled the virus | 17:09 |
penny_ | Mumuks[m] yes so it was wrong for them to lie to us do you agree? | 17:10 |
penny_ | they should have just admitted we needed to ration them | 17:10 |
ketas | it was norm in japan before any corona for sick person to wear mask | 17:10 |
blkshp | There's also a correlation of ice cream consumption and murders | 17:11 |
ketas | noone does that elsewhere much | 17:11 |
LjL | Mumuks[m], well, a few governments are (or are rumored to be) moving towards *no longer* recommending against masks, or even recommending *to* wear them (or in some cases, mandating them). that may be due to mask production slowly get up to speed with demand. anyhow, it's all been a political decision: from the start i've maintained that lying to the public just in order to obtain the desired result (even when it's a good result like letting medical | 17:11 |
LjL | personnel have them) won't pay off. | 17:11 |
penny_ | ^ | 17:11 |
LjL | governments, WHO, Health Ministers, et: tell people A, then tell people not-A later. they won't believe a word from you anymore. and then you'll blame them for reading "fake news" on the internet. but it's YOUR fault. | 17:11 |
bin_bash | the WHO should resign | 17:11 |
bin_bash | all fo them | 17:11 |
LjL | not that any of these entities are listening. | 17:11 |
AimHere | blkshp, of course, but the ice cream/murders thing was definitely causative at some times/places: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Ice_Cream_Wars | 17:12 |
python476 | o/ | 17:12 |
LjL | hi python476 | 17:12 |
Fitbin | You ever watch anyone who's not used to wearing a face covering during their first couple of days wearing a mask? | 17:12 |
blkshp | it's glasgow, i don't need to open it :D! | 17:12 |
penny_ | a democratic government, a government of the people, should not be lying to their own people! | 17:12 |
penny_ | the government works for us! | 17:12 |
LjL | Fitbin, covering as in? | 17:12 |
AimHere | penny_, the democratic governments are the ones MOST in need of lying to the people. If you're a dictator, you can just say 'I don't care about your opinion, do what I say or I kill you' | 17:13 |
blkshp | also, i would add, isn't the lockdown to 'flatten the curve' and not ultimately to prevent everyone getting sick, just to prevent them getting sick all at once. | 17:13 |
AimHere | It's the countries where the politicians have to get you to like them every 4 years that need to lie to you | 17:13 |
python476 | hi LjL | 17:13 |
penny_ | yes but then theyre not really democratic are they? | 17:13 |
AimHere | penny_, well which governments ARE, then? | 17:14 |
penny_ | and dictators lie all the time my dood | 17:14 |
penny_ | none i would say | 17:14 |
LjL | blkshp, that depends on the type of lockdown. there is a difference between aiming for containment, and aiming for mitigation, although in some cases the difference may seem subtle in that the lockdowns are all "stay at home except". but for instance, the UK lockdown where people are, generally, still going to work is quite different from one where all non-essential work activities are stopped. | 17:16 |
Nokaji | penny_: indeed, it is still a barrier of sorts | 17:18 |
Nokaji | even if not the best mask for the purpose | 17:18 |
penny_ | it has to be marginally helpful | 17:18 |
Nokaji | it has gaps around the sides | 17:18 |
penny_ | better than nothing | 17:19 |
Nokaji | so better protection from direct spray than from aerosols | 17:19 |
penny_ | ya | 17:19 |
Fitbin | The premier advatage of something in the nature of a surgical mask is psychological. which is *ahem* not to be sneezed at. | 17:20 |
AimHere | Plot twist, it's ONE single really defective n95 mask. | 17:20 |
bin_bash | lol | 17:21 |
penny_ | preventing asymptomatics from spreading is important too Fitbin | 17:21 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:15 UTC: US news: US coronavirus live: Fauci says 'I don't understand' why every state has not issued stay-home order → https://is.gd/mjLxxn | 17:22 |
penny_ | money | 17:22 |
penny_ | also just bc its unpopular | 17:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +10969 cases (now 1055847), +420 deaths (now 55750), +1554 recoveries (now 223886) since 20 minutes ago — US: +10460 cases (now 257379), +406 deaths (now 6558), +1530 recoveries (now 11941) since 20 minutes ago — New York, US: +9810 cases (now 102863), +397 deaths (now 2935) since 20 minutes ago | 17:23 |
blkshp | CovidfefeRoey: hehe thanks.. | 17:25 |
bin_bash | i have to go pickup some prescriptions tomorrow and im not looking forward to it | 17:26 |
blkshp | Got a motorcycle helmet?! :) | 17:26 |
bin_bash | oh i have masks | 17:27 |
bin_bash | i have a couple n95 disposables and a half-face respirator with p100 filters | 17:28 |
bin_bash | im just... not looking forward to going out in public | 17:28 |
bin_bash | i actually may end up wearing goggles over my glasses idk though | 17:28 |
Nokaji | it's one time where a burkha would come in handy | 17:30 |
Fitbin | I have an Avon S10 and I'm unlikely to mask until the point at wearing that is acceptable. | 17:30 |
Acheron | looks like Covid-19 is making it into the Middle East | 17:30 |
bin_bash | Acheron: it's been there for months, what are you talking about | 17:30 |
Acheron | i mean other parts other than Iran | 17:31 |
bin_bash | so do i | 17:31 |
Acheron | don't get all jumpy at me | 17:31 |
CovidfefeRoey | Acheron: it's been there and it will be hideous in the next two weeks, outside of Iran. | 17:31 |
Nokaji | I will not be appeasing ppl who think dying is more acceptable than wearing a mask - I paid good money for that kit, I'm wearing it | 17:31 |
CovidfefeRoey | I dunno how the Hamas terrorist government in Gaza will handle this. | 17:32 |
pyna | i have TOO MANY FLASHLIGHTS | 17:32 |
Acheron | yeah, its going to get nasty | 17:32 |
bin_bash | CovidfefeRoey: they wont | 17:32 |
bin_bash | or theyll blame israel lol | 17:32 |
bin_bash | or both! | 17:32 |
CovidfefeRoey | Israel is helping Hamas (how ironic) with it, I read today | 17:32 |
bin_bash | israel is always willing to offer an olive branch - much to its own detriment | 17:33 |
CovidfefeRoey | everyone in my family in Israel is reacting to on FB to being locked down | 17:33 |
CovidfefeRoey | bin_bash: aye | 17:33 |
mefistofeles | DO you know anything about this french town with no cases? | 17:33 |
CovidfefeRoey | oh, fancy meeting you here, btw | 17:33 |
CovidfefeRoey | bin_bash: ^ | 17:33 |
bin_bash | protip though: don't get into conversations about israel with germans | 17:33 |
CovidfefeRoey | heh | 17:33 |
bin_bash | ive been here since the inception basically lol | 17:33 |
CovidfefeRoey | oh I see. How long have ##covid-19, ##coronavirus, ##coronavirus-vox and ##CoV been around?? | 17:34 |
penny_ | Nokaji sacrifice yourself for the cause like a good citizen ;) | 17:34 |
bin_bash | awhile | 17:34 |
CovidfefeRoey | and why are there four differnet chanenls all about the same topic | 17:34 |
aradesh | hmm. maybe i should get some disposable gloves. while washing hands is important, not touching things with the virus on in the first place is just as important | 17:34 |
mefistofeles | CovidfefeRoey: this one since last october | 17:34 |
CovidfefeRoey | mefistofeles: aye, ok | 17:34 |
mefistofeles | ;) | 17:34 |
bin_bash | oh then i havent been here since the inception, i take it back | 17:34 |
CovidfefeRoey | mefistofeles: I'm trying to determine which is the officialest channel | 17:34 |
bin_bash | ive been here like 2 months maybe | 17:34 |
mefistofeles | CovidfefeRoey: haha, I was joking btw | 17:34 |
CovidfefeRoey | bin_bash: I joined a couple daysaog | 17:34 |
CovidfefeRoey | ago * | 17:34 |
Albright | Last October? Wasn't the disease named "COVID-19" in February? | 17:34 |
mefistofeles | Albright: ;) | 17:35 |
CovidfefeRoey | yeah before that it was Kung-Flu | 17:35 |
Albright | IHBT. | 17:35 |
bin_bash | oh derp, this is ##covid-19 i thought this was ##coronavirus | 17:35 |
mefistofeles | CovidfefeRoey: there has been many other names so it'snot really easy to track | 17:35 |
penny_ | just as in wartime citizens can be drafted, you have been drafted into not wearing a mask during this war against corona ;) | 17:35 |
bin_bash | i wouldve believed ##coronavirus was arround since november run by the ccp propoganda team :P | 17:35 |
mefistofeles | CovidfefeRoey: I wouldn't trust as the oldest one being the official, tbh | 17:35 |
CovidfefeRoey | oh hey again penny_ | 17:35 |
penny_ | hiya | 17:35 |
bin_bash | there's ntohing official about any of it | 17:36 |
CovidfefeRoey | mefistofeles: I mean.. not "official" then.. I just wonder why there are four chanels about the same thing | 17:36 |
mefistofeles | also that | 17:36 |
CovidfefeRoey | I mean, ##coronavirus-vox is about discussion of treatments | 17:36 |
CovidfefeRoey | but the othe rthree? Why not just combine them? | 17:36 |
Albright | Why "vox?" | 17:36 |
Nokaji | penny_: I've actually put some thought into my PPE and go fairly stylish, making a fashion statement so that ppl could even envy rather than object to it | 17:36 |
mefistofeles | CovidfefeRoey: differences in admin is one reason | 17:36 |
penny_ | neato | 17:36 |
CovidfefeRoey | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Everyone knows Vox is a trusted news source | 17:36 |
CovidfefeRoey | mefistofeles: sure | 17:36 |
LjL | CovidfefeRoey, because combining channels often goes very wrong, and while i am in a decent relationship with the people running the other channels, that sounds like a perfect way to ruin it | 17:36 |
Albright | lolololo | 17:36 |
bin_bash | i dont think it's related to vox media | 17:36 |
mefistofeles | also there are some that are just a proxy for 4chan and conspiracy theorists etc. | 17:37 |
CovidfefeRoey | bin_bash: oh! ok, thank you very much for cluing me in to that | 17:37 |
mefistofeles | and all in between | 17:37 |
CovidfefeRoey | LjL: fine, fine. | 17:37 |
penny_ | its good to have different channels. if everyone was in one channel it would go too fast | 17:37 |
Nokaji | CCP Virus | 17:37 |
LjL | also while you were talking about channels did you notice the US just had a +10000 update | 17:37 |
CovidfefeRoey | penny_: true | 17:37 |
CovidfefeRoey | ljL: wha-- | 17:37 |
LjL | well the bot posted it | 17:37 |
CovidfefeRoey | oh my god | 17:38 |
mefistofeles | the antibody tests are coming, they would probably show that these Imperial COllege models are somewhat right, I think | 17:38 |
CovidfefeRoey | USA +12,502 | 17:38 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:29 UTC: US economy sheds jobs for first time since 2010 as coronavirus hits – business live: Live coverage as American payrolls data shows big rise in unemployment, after composite PMI data shows UK business activity sunk to a record low in March following the Covid-19 lockdown [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SfTBF4 | 17:38 |
CovidfefeRoey | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ | 17:38 |
mefistofeles | millions of infected people already | 17:38 |
ecks | sure hope so | 17:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +759 cases (now 1056606), +10 deaths (now 55760), +5 recoveries (now 223891) since 19 minutes ago — Canada: +464 cases (now 11747) since an hour ago — Maryland, US: +427 cases (now 2758), +6 deaths (now 42) since 35 minutes ago | 17:38 |
dTal | "sure hope so"? | 17:38 |
ecks | for sure | 17:39 |
mefistofeles | dTal: yes, its good | 17:39 |
ecks | that would mean most people are asymptomatic | 17:39 |
CovidfefeRoey | Brainstorm: I just got a letter from my employer saying that we're all a family (yeah, choke on a dick) and how they are identifying workers to furlough "temporarily" even though they say they don't know when they would take them back | 17:39 |
mefistofeles | and that the death rate is way way lower | 17:39 |
dTal | mmm I see | 17:39 |
aradesh | ecks: unless they're going to become symptomatic later after having it for about 2 weeks | 17:39 |
CovidfefeRoey | dTal: o/ | 17:39 |
CovidfefeRoey | dTal: haven't seen you in a while | 17:39 |
ecks | sounds unlikely | 17:40 |
dTal | \o but I don't recognize you | 17:40 |
Fitbin | Bottom line is until we get, more or less, universal testing we're not gonna know. | 17:40 |
CovidfefeRoey | dTal: yeah probably so.. I don't remmeber where I saw you first on IRC | 17:40 |
CovidfefeRoey | either. | 17:40 |
dTal | I'm going to assume it's before you assumed a covid-related nick | 17:40 |
CovidfefeRoey | "Roey" | 17:40 |
CovidfefeRoey | dTal: maybe I was thinking of this famous chess player Mikhail Tal | 17:42 |
LjL | ecks, actually it doesn't sound unlikely... in the few studies that have been made on asymptomatic people (we definitely need more, antibody tests will hopefully give us a hand in figuring it out), eventually the vast majority of them *did* develop symptoms | 17:42 |
CovidfefeRoey | ljl: ahh | 17:42 |
penny_ | wow interesting | 17:42 |
ecks | well, as long as they're developing mild symptoms. the median is something like 5 days, right? seems unlikely that these millions of infected would all decide to wait until 14 days to develop symptoms | 17:42 |
penny_ | maybe the symptoms are just sooo mild that people dont even realize theyre symptoms? | 17:44 |
LjL | ecks, well they wouldn't necessarily take 14 days, but i don't think that was a core part of aradesh's argument... i don't know whether those "caught" asymptomatic tend to develop mild or strong symptoms, but if they do develop symptoms that are milder than average, for all i know they may take longer to develop them too | 17:44 |
Butterfly^ | https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/feverish-boris-johnson-will-continue-isolate-covid-19-symptoms-worsen %title | 17:44 |
Butterfly^ | itle: A Feverish Boris Johnson Will Continue To Isolate As COVID-19 Symptoms Worsen | Zero Hedge (at www.zerohedge.com) | 17:45 |
LjL | penny_, that definitely happens, and was found to be one of the major drivers of transmission, as people are most infectious when they are just starting to get symptoms | 17:45 |
penny_ | hm | 17:45 |
ecks | "But with UK and European stocks already in the red, the video did nothing to lift investor confidence, as Johnson, pale as a sheet and shiny with sweat, appears to be extremely ill." lol wtf | 17:46 |
LjL | anyway this is from the WHO-China joint report, for those who believe anything the WHO says: "Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on todevelop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission." | 17:46 |
ecks | he looks like me during this morning's Zoom meeting, nothing more | 17:46 |
penny_ | has this already been posted? https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understand-about-asymptomatic-carriers-if-were-going-to-beat-coronavirus | 17:46 |
LjL | "relatively rare" though means quite possibly 50% according to a more recent study | 17:46 |
LjL | penny_, well i don't know, but it cites the report i just cited | 17:47 |
penny_ | ah | 17:47 |
LjL | which is available at https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf if you want a long boring read | 17:47 |
penny_ | :) | 17:47 |
Jigsy | I see the UK recovery stats has been removed from Wikipedia. | 17:52 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 17:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +643 cases (now 1057249), +39 deaths (now 55799), +116 recoveries (now 224007) since 18 minutes ago — Germany: +643 cases (now 89451), +15 deaths (now 1208) since 49 minutes ago — Canada: +464 cases (now 11747) since an hour ago | 17:52 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 38168 cases, 3605 deaths (9.4% of cases), 135 recoveries as of 3 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:52 |
LjL | Jigsy, page? | 17:53 |
Jigsy | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic | 17:53 |
Jigsy | That one. | 17:53 |
Jigsy | Now it's just: - | 17:53 |
CovidfefeRoey | bin_bash: https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Coronavirus-Israel-must-help-Hamas-without-creating-a-security-threat-623409 <-- this is the article I saw | 17:53 |
CovidfefeRoey | %cases US | 17:54 |
Brainstorm | CovidfefeRoey: In all areas, US, there are 257379 cases, 6558 deaths (2.5% of cases), 11941 recoveries as of 5 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 17:54 |
CovidfefeRoey | %cases Israel | 17:54 |
Brainstorm | CovidfefeRoey: In all areas, Israel, there are 7030 cases, 39 deaths (0.6% of cases), 338 recoveries as of 5 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data. | 17:54 |
LjL | Lombardy has +1455 positives and +351 dead today | 17:55 |
nixonix | the reason for -vox channel was, that the main channel coronavirus got flooded with too much off-topic discussion, so it was hard to follow stuff that was about virology, epidemiology and events related closely to epidemic. there also was a survey, where people were asked, if two separate chans was a good idea. when i answered, the side supporting it was clearly winning | 17:55 |
CovidfefeRoey | nixonix: thank you | 17:56 |
CovidfefeRoey | for clarifying that. | 17:56 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:45 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: US coronavirus live: Cuomo to seize ventilators from owners to give to hospitals in need — from r/WorldNews at 15:45: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' → https://is.gd/mjLxxn | 17:56 |
CovidfefeRoey | ^ this is autocracy. | 17:56 |
LjL | Jigsy, that page already listed N/A recoveries in the UK back before the end of March... the source for the data (which is Public Health England) just doesn't include it | 17:57 |
LjL | not a huge loss really, since recoveries are all over the place in pretty much every country | 17:58 |
aradesh | LjL, ecks: what i meant is while there will be millions of infected around the world, the majority of them will be in the early stage of infection | 18:02 |
LjL | Lombardy has 163 more new positives than yesterday | 18:03 |
LjL | yet government calls it "comforting" | 18:03 |
LjL | the deaths have gone down a little | 18:03 |
Nokaji | UK Govt LIVE - https://youtu.be/1yGfb_J2NjI | 18:03 |
aradesh | once the amount of new cases each day is becoming fewer than the previosu day, it's good news | 18:04 |
aradesh | because it means fewer peolpe are being infected each day, which hopefully means its on the way out | 18:04 |
LjL | aradesh, yes, and that is only tentatively happening in Italy, while in Lombardy in particular, Milan and Turin look like they're rising | 18:05 |
Fitbin | Lombardy has been on "lockdown" since 08/03 | 18:07 |
penny_ | you would think there would have been a drop in the daily infections by now | 18:07 |
LjL | penny_, it's always "in the next few days" if you listen to the press conferences | 18:08 |
penny_ | certainly in a week or two they wont be able to say that anymore | 18:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5656 cases (now 1062905), +790 deaths (now 56589), +1596 recoveries (now 225603) since 19 minutes ago — Italy: +4585 cases (now 119827), +766 deaths (now 14681), +1480 recoveries (now 19758) since 19 minutes ago — Lombardia, Italy: +1455 cases (now 47520), +351 deaths (now 8311), +791 recoveries (now 13020) since a day ago | 18:08 |
LjL | Fitbin, while at the same time, Veneto has managed to keep the numbers down, and they tested much more aggressively than Lombardy, despite the central government disapproving of their methods | 18:08 |
LjL | penny_, they've already said for a couple of weeks, so | 18:09 |
penny_ | oh right testing.... | 18:09 |
penny_ | it could just be more testing tho? | 18:09 |
LjL | no | 18:09 |
penny_ | similar testing rate all along? | 18:10 |
LjL | Veneto has tested more than Lombardy and found fewer positives, while Lombardy has had a rather high 25%-ish positives on their tests | 18:10 |
LjL | not all along, but while they've tested more in the past few days, they've also found a lower percentage of positives | 18:10 |
penny_ | i got u | 18:10 |
nixonix | testing, testing right people, and infection chain tracking makes the difference | 18:11 |
penny_ | well ok even if the lockdown is having a significant effect the infection rate could still be going up. maybe without the lockdown it would be going up that much more | 18:11 |
LjL | nixonix, the official line is that Lombardy is just not in the condition to do that now | 18:11 |
LjL | penny_, that was not the expectation, though | 18:12 |
penny_ | not at all | 18:12 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:00 UTC: NHS: Two young nurses die as NHS braces for more coronavirus losses — from r/WorldNews at 16:00: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' → https://is.gd/OOTsyX | 18:12 |
LjL | maybe COVID-19 travels in the air from one apartment to the next... but that was, like, definitely not the expectation, and right now I've just seen the ISS's president repeat once again that long-lived airborne transmission is unlikely | 18:12 |
nixonix | also, that when those with flu-like symptoms - even when not confirmed sars-2 - self-quarantine, the whole household should self-quarantine (according to american infection models, this is very important) | 18:12 |
penny_ | maybe the (fake?) chinese numbers gave people false hope | 18:13 |
LjL | well, Korean numbers are probably not fake, and they have not done much of a lockdown, but they did track and trace aggressively | 18:13 |
penny_ | yes | 18:13 |
LjL | i am still in favor of lockdowns, but clearly unless they do them the Wuhan way, there is still something missing | 18:13 |
Fitbin | I'm convinced the Chinese figures are relatively accurate | 18:13 |
penny_ | italy might have just been so overwhelmed with virus that by the time the lockdown happened it was too late | 18:14 |
LjL | penny_, wouldn't the same be true for China (Hubei/Wuhan)? | 18:14 |
Fitbin | Totalitarian government, obedient population, large numbers of deploayble military and medical staff. Does the trick. | 18:14 |
penny_ | their lockdown was stricter | 18:14 |
LjL | well, western countries are more like Italy and less like China, so they should look carefully at Italy's outcome. however, Italy's lockdown was pretty relaxed until last week | 18:15 |
LjL | incidentally, Italy's numbers for today are out, even though the press conference hasn't even started yet | 18:16 |
penny_ | if we had started the lockdown sooner we could have afforded a less strict one | 18:16 |
LjL | doubtful. if R>1, it is, and the thing keeps spreading exponentially, albeit maybe with a lower exponent | 18:17 |
IndoAnon | >Chinese figures are relatively accurate < Mainland china is totally not accurate, while Hongkong China should be really accurate, and even more Republic of China | 18:18 |
Nokaji | penny_: indeed, you have to go in fast and you have to go in hard - requires far less resources, too | 18:19 |
Nokaji | contain | 18:19 |
linext | china was not counting people who have coronavirus with no symptoms as being infected | 18:19 |
LjL | Italy's daily Civil Protection press conference is starting now at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjo5-2Cwwsw and I will take notes as usual | 18:20 |
Nokaji | or with co-morbidities that died | 18:20 |
sneep | linext: Yeah, I only read that like last week I think | 18:20 |
LjL | Total active positive: 85388, +2339 since yesterday | 18:21 |
penny_ | wut that's important linext | 18:21 |
LjL | 4068 are in ICU, 28741 are in hospital with symptoms, while 52572 are self-isolating at home (62%) | 18:21 |
LjL | +766 fatalities | 18:21 |
LjL | +1480 recoveries | 18:21 |
LjL | As of today, 61849 tests have been made, +80000 in the past couple of days | 18:22 |
LjL | 114 patients have been transferred from Lombardy to other places, +9 since yesterday | 18:22 |
LjL | 38 patients were transferred to Germany | 18:22 |
LjL | 16798 volunteers are working. | 18:22 |
LjL | There are 792 pre-triage tents outside hospitals, and 151 in prisons. | 18:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1696 cases (now 1064601), +49 deaths (now 56638), +19 recoveries (now 225622) since 22 minutes ago — US: +1453 cases (now 259565), +22 deaths (now 6594), +19 recoveries (now 11960) since 22 minutes ago — Pennsylvania, US: +1156 cases (now 8420), +12 deaths (now 102) since 22 minutes ago | 18:23 |
LjL | 11.5 million euro have been spent as of today for PPEs and ventilators from the amount donated to the Civil Protection, around 10.5 million | 18:23 |
LjL | For the time being, "phase 2" is scheduled to start on April 13, and today there was some misunderstanding of Borrelli's words, he claims, because he clearly said the measures to be adopted would be determined as things occur. He's sorry his reasoning was turned into a headline not reflecting his thoughts. | 18:25 |
LjL | Something about scams occurring and unauthorized interviews | 18:26 |
LjL | Some data about ICU: on Monday a re port about 1310 ICU patients will be published on JAMA, which will show the great majority had comorbidities. 90% were put under invasive ventilation. Mortality in this sample has been around 15%, mostly between 65 and 90 years of age. Data on my particular hospital are that we've had 150 patients in ICU in the past few weeks. 63% came from ER, and others from other departments. So patients don't end up in ICU all | 18:28 |
LjL | immediately, sometimes they are hospitalized but deteriorate until they need to be taken into ICU. Anyhow, the age group also includes 45-64 years of age. Lastly, average stay in ICU is 10 days, and often extends to 15-20 days, so the impact is not only from the severity of the disease, but also due to the long times taken for recovery. | 18:28 |
LjL | Questions now. | 18:29 |
dividediff[m] | Guys! Member of parliament got back to me and wanted some sources on how masks 4 all could reduce asymptomatic spread. Anyone got a favorite scientific source? | 18:30 |
LjL | Q: On "phase 2", aside from dates, it will happen sooner or later. You're telling Italians to stay home, and Italians are doing it, but they also need to be able to imagine what will happen afterwards. We know there will be a middle ground between "now" and "afterwards"... how do you imagine this transition? By steps, by geographical zones, by age groups, by activity...? Please don't tell me you're only "working on it"! | 18:30 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:14 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live: Matt Hancock warns people will die if social distancing is ignored over weekend — from r/WorldNews at 16:14: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' → https://is.gd/XTcPze | 18:30 |
dividediff[m] | Just got of the phone with them. Need to email them a source in like the next 10mins | 18:30 |
LjL | dividediff[m], i posted a few new links about masks at https://covid19.specops.network/ in their own section - ask also pepee | 18:30 |
LjL | A: I will be able to provide my opinion when the scientific committee is done evaluating the situation. I really cannot afford to predict things I do not know. | 18:31 |
LjL | Q: But how do YOU imagine it? You must know what you think about it. | 18:31 |
dividediff[m] | Nice to hear from you again Ljl, it's been a few days! thanks | 18:31 |
Fitbin | One UK source suggesting that quarantine measures may have to continue for 18 months. I'm afraid I'll be asking my MP to lobby for assisted euthanasia if that's even close to being true | 18:31 |
LjL | A: Without scientific elements, I cannot say anything about it to you now. | 18:31 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Bill Gates funding the construction of factories for 7 different vaccines to fight coronavirus (10323 votes) | https://redd.it/fu8nwx | 18:31 |
LjL | (Doctor) There is no clear and certain answer to your question until scientific evaluations are completely; for now we can only notice there is a decrease in virus transmission, and it appears we're just repeating the same things over and over, but it's clear containment measures have been useful, which has also reflected in ICU pressure; but it's hard to give a specific answer to your question. | 18:32 |
LjL | Q: But you must give people some hope? It's important. | 18:32 |
LjL | A: Certainly. | 18:32 |
dividediff[m] | LjL: your top link is broken https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20 | 18:33 |
AimHere | Fitbin, lockdown for 18 months won't happen. Some sort of measures may have to remain for a long time though | 18:33 |
LjL | Q: You often say experts must give the answers. We then go to the experts and they say we must go elsewhere still. We need clear and timely communication. This country has been wounded by grief and suffering, and maybe this is the place where experts should give actual numbers and answer our questions. Anyhow, do you think during "phase 2" it will be mandatory to wear masks? | 18:34 |
LjL | A: I am happy to have all the experts we need on my site during these press conferences. Today we have an authoritative person from the scientific committee, but I wish there will be many other scientific committee representatives at this table. | 18:34 |
pepee | interesting, people are making youtube videos of tests of different cloths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcytGGAJPB0 | 18:34 |
pepee | using paint or even deodorant to emulate virus particles and sneezes | 18:35 |
LjL | As to masks, I think it will be more important to increase our social distancing measures: as you see, I'm not wearing a mask, and it's not because I think it's useless, but I simply try to respect the distances instead. So, again, I cannot tell you anything about masks in the present moment, since we don't know about the evolution of things and whether it will be needed or not to wear masks. Today, whoever is able to respect the distancing doesn't need to | 18:35 |
LjL | wear them. | 18:35 |
dunnp | wow NYC about to have more cases than Italy and Spain | 18:36 |
yuriwho | major ontario canada press conf right now: https://www.cbc.ca/news | 18:37 |
LjL | Q: Back to the question of adequate protection for healthcare workers, since hospitals are the place with the most risks... you told us how 6000 masks from China were delivered to doctors but turned out not to be adequate as they weren't FFP2. I'd like to know how other deliveries are going, as there have been several rumors on subpar masks, and someone in Hong Kong says all masks being made in China are not adequate. Another thing, too many PPEs get to | 18:37 |
LjL | doctors without being certified, and they don't know whether or not to use them. What's your answer to them? | 18:37 |
LjL | A: As I said before, there was a logistics problem with the masks that were delivered the other day. We deliver masks to healthcare workers but also to the public, and just yesterday we distributed nearly 5 million masks. In the next few days, we'll be sending replacements for those masks which were not adequate. We control the quality of masks, together with the Red Cross. I am convinced we won't have future difficulties. | 18:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3385 cases (now 1067986), +109 deaths (now 56747), +407 recoveries (now 226029) since 19 minutes ago — Turkey: +2786 cases (now 20921), +69 deaths (now 425), +69 recoveries (now 484) since 19 minutes ago — Canada: +464 cases (now 11747) since 2 hours ago | 18:38 |
LjL | As to PPE use in general, we all verify them, and unlike that batch of masks, I'm not aware of any critical issues with them. | 18:38 |
LjL | (Doctor) We optimize resource use in hospital depending on the type of thing the personnel must be doing: if I need to be in the COVID ward but not visit patients, I will wear a mask; but if I have to make a procedure like intubation, then I need further protection. The WHO itself has a very clear table indicating how to use the various PPEs. Knowing how problematic the lack of these resources can be, we do try to optimize, and for example, people tend to | 18:40 |
LjL | keep wearing PPEs throughout their turn, even though this is fatiguing. | 18:40 |
pepee | and apparently spray paint is better for testing than paint.. oddly enough, they give different results | 18:40 |
LjL | Q: We are witnessing an apparent decrease in ICU use, but this does not match the number of new infections. So are we doing more tests, finding more asymptomatic cases, or relatives of sick people who are less critical...? | 18:40 |
LjL | A: It's not easy to give you a very certain answer. You must consider the peak has not ended yet, and while there is a slight decreasing trend, it's the fruit of what we did during the past three weeks... so it's hard to evaluate new cases. | 18:41 |
pepee | %title https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293012508_Particle_Sizes_of_Aerosols_Produced_by_Nine_Indoor_Perfumes_and_Deodorants | 18:41 |
Brainstorm | pepee: From www.researchgate.net: (PDF) Particle Sizes of Aerosols Produced by Nine Indoor Perfumes and Deodorants | 18:41 |
LjL | Q: Another question about ICU, and what stage are experimentations on new treatments at? And could these treatments reduce the need to use ICU beds, allowing people to be treated in normal hospital beds? | 18:42 |
LjL | A: The answer is dual: first, there is not currently a scientifically proven therapy, and there are, both at an Italian level through AIFA and internationally, a set of very serious studies ongoing. If one of these therapies turned out to be useful to prevent ICU access, that's not something we can say now, but the reasoning is sound that it could happen. | 18:43 |
aradesh | official on tv now saying, "there is no evidence that general wearing of face mask by the general populace reduces the spread of a pandemic" | 18:43 |
LjL | aradesh, note it for later, when they'll be saying the opposite | 18:43 |
Nokaji | Geezer from UK govt just said the following (approx)on live tv: No evidence that general wearing by the public (of face masks) that is well, affects the spread across our society. We do not recommend face masks. | 18:44 |
LjL | Q: I think you must "unify" communication. During the past week, we had to listen to Dr Arcuri at noon, then Prof. Brusaferri, then again to your press conference at 18. I won't even ask you about the deceased in immigrant camps etc because no one knows the answer. Do you think you can discuss with the Minister the addition to the committee of other professional figures? A psychologist, a statistician... | 18:44 |
LjL | A: The way it's been created, the scientific committee can be integrated with new professional roles. Psychologically, our volunteers are working on psychological issues and they have psychologists, and I will try to request further information. | 18:45 |
LjL | Follow up: I would like to add, from the frontline, which I belong to, that hospitals highly value people like psychologists, not only to provide support to people who are sick, but also for the personnel themselves. In our "critical area" in particular, the stress we are subjected to is very strong. Having support available helps. | 18:46 |
aradesh | Nokaji: yup. he said it is the same advice as the WHO | 18:46 |
Nokaji | aradesh: well, both can go rot | 18:47 |
aradesh | why do they keep calling their plan to increase their testing capacity as a "5 pillar plan" ? have they all converted to islam or something? | 18:47 |
dividediff[m] | In case anyone is interested, gfs sore throat resolved like a while ago, she suggested just dehydration. | 18:47 |
Nokaji | 5 is an occult number of protection | 18:47 |
Nokaji | 5, 55, 555 | 18:47 |
LjL | Q: Since this crisis began, there have been a continuing conflict between the central government and individual regions. So I'd like to ask, first, I get at this is a technical question and not political, but do you think there should be more centralization? Secondly, do you wish new regional ordnances will be in line with the central government's stance, especially during "phase 2" where there may be more localized clusters? | 18:47 |
Nokaji | pillars have obvious symbolism, too | 18:48 |
dividediff[m] | aradesh: "why do they keep calling their plan to increase their testing capacity as a "5 pillar plan" ? have they all converted to islam or something?" - Aradesh 2020 jajaja | 18:48 |
LjL | A: I think I can answer both questions with our intervention model in the Civil Protection. The matter is preeminently regional, but when there is a national emergency, we are all united in managing it under Civil Protection handling. Since this is a health emergency, it has been handled differently from disasters where the Civil Protection intervenes. When I had a meeting with Lombardy's government, I said the Civil Protection was to work next to the | 18:49 |
LjL | regional healthcare system. Our capabilities are tested, and in full synergy for teamwork. | 18:49 |
aradesh | Nokaji: well there are the "5 pillars of islam" | 18:49 |
LjL | About regional laws, we wish to avoid dissonant decisions; it's my wish but also a technical and common sense wish. | 18:49 |
LjL | We have concluded. Good evening. | 18:49 |
LjL | --- end | 18:49 |
Nokaji | aradesh: fair comment | 18:49 |
dividediff[m] | remember to sanitize your phones when you return from an outing folks, pce | 18:50 |
Nokaji | it is a coinkydink,indeed | 18:50 |
Nokaji | I spray IPA | 18:50 |
Nokaji | The Five Pillars of Islam are some basic acts in Islam, considered mandatory by believers, and are the foundation of Muslim life. They are summarized in the famous hadith of Gabriel. The Sunni and Shia agree on the essential details for the performance and practice of these acts, but the Shia do not refer to them by the same name. They make up Muslim life, prayer, concern for the needy, self-purification, and the pilgrimage, if one is able. | 18:52 |
Nokaji | there is a correlation | 18:53 |
ubLIX | between what and what? | 18:53 |
Nokaji | islam's five pillars and UK's, such as in how this is overarching governance of how we must conduct all aspets of ur lifes, (religiously even) | 18:54 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:48 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans so far, Dr. Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 16:48: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/JTDGR1 | 18:54 |
ubLIX | s/correlation/coincidence/ | 18:55 |
Nokaji | a coinciding correlation | 18:56 |
ubLIX | coincidentally both notions have landed on a plausible number for the capacity of human working memory | 18:57 |
jacklsw | i wonder how is boris johnson now | 18:59 |
jacklsw | prince charles has recovered | 18:59 |
Nokaji | high temp still | 18:59 |
Nokaji | Fitbin: are you suggesting nobody in govt has ever heard of islam? | 19:00 |
Nokaji | charlie appears to have re-continued his self-isolation including back to putting his own toothpaste on his brush | 19:01 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:04 UTC: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo says state saw its biggest single-day increase in coronavirus deaths on Thursday — from r/WorldNews at 17:04: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/OV4lRw | 19:07 |
ketas | Nokaji: hahaha | 19:08 |
ketas | Nokaji: but still has hired asswiper? | 19:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5588 cases (now 1073574), +187 deaths (now 56934), +23 recoveries (now 226052) since 35 minutes ago — US: +4409 cases (now 264159), +111 deaths (now 6714), +11 recoveries (now 11983) since 35 minutes ago — New Jersey, US: +4305 cases (now 29895), +109 deaths (now 646) since an hour ago | 19:08 |
Nokaji | ketas: groom of the stool? - quite possibly | 19:09 |
ketas | stoolgroomer! | 19:09 |
LjL | Brainstorm just keeps churning out big updates for the US. bit scary. | 19:09 |
LjL | so far, more than 25000 new cases in the US today I reckon, compared to the roughly 240k offloop has for yesterday...? yikes | 19:10 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:06 UTC: (news): 'The Hot Zone' author warns the next pandemic could 'balloon faster' than the coronavirus — from r/WorldNews at 17:06: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/eWX3rG | 19:13 |
python476 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1DK_1DthyM | 19:15 |
python476 | painting copper solution on mask | 19:15 |
python476 | copper being said to also be antiviral to a point | 19:15 |
LjL | python476, and safe to inhale? | 19:16 |
Nokaji | as is brass r silver | 19:16 |
Nokaji | or* | 19:16 |
python476 | LjL: free copper supplements | 19:16 |
python476 | no idea if those would leave the fiber or not | 19:16 |
python476 | feel free to try and report #cdc | 19:16 |
LjL | python476, ingestion is not inhalation though, ask all those people who died from inhaling vit. E from their vapes | 19:17 |
python476 | true | 19:17 |
Fitbin | Meh. Seriously considering just going out and licking door knobs. I mean, I'm probably going to get iut at some point anyway. Might as well get it over with. | 19:18 |
ketas | hah | 19:18 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:12 UTC: (news): WHO says countries that rush to lift coronavirus containment risk 'more severe and prolonged' damage to economy — from r/WorldNews at 17:12: Cuban docs fighting coronavirus around world, defying US → https://is.gd/u5QNxh | 19:19 |
ketas | it might hurt like losing virginity | 19:19 |
LjL | Fitbin, i think you're a bit late for that. if you wanted to get it when hospitals were not under pressure, that was... several weeks ago. i suspect you might do better waiting and hoping there's some decent treatment before you get it... | 19:19 |
Nokaji | python476: I'd be concerned that there could be uninteded consequences, plus iirc the mask he uses is below the standard recommended for covid protection | 19:19 |
python476 | Nokaji: about that | 19:20 |
python476 | wouldn't subpar masks help shields part of aerosols ? | 19:21 |
python476 | bigger droplets > 1micron | 19:21 |
python476 | even if the virus itself could fit through these masks | 19:21 |
LjL | python476, if you ask the WHO, no [citation needed]. if you ask me, yes [citation not needed because i'm here saying it] | 19:21 |
Nokaji | python476: they could indeed fall into the 'better than nothing' camp (pre-modification) | 19:21 |
ketas | Fitbin: i think you actually do it anyway... if you grab knob and then put hand around mouth or nose for some reason, you already got whatever was on that | 19:21 |
Nokaji | it's still a direct barrier | 19:21 |
Fitbin | If you're talking about the healthcare environment, at least part of the problem is litigation. | 19:22 |
LjL | ketas, not quite the same in terms of how much virus you get... which may matter a lot | 19:22 |
pale_moon22k[m] | Has anyone here any papers on COVID-19 effect on atheletes? Even personal experiences would be fine | 19:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1374 cases (now 1074948), +72 deaths (now 57006), +9 recoveries (now 226061) since 19 minutes ago — US: +1347 cases (now 265506), +72 deaths (now 6786) since 19 minutes ago — Louisiana, US: +1147 cases (now 10297), +60 deaths (now 370) since an hour ago | 19:23 |
jacklsw | WHO last year: video games are bad for your health | 19:24 |
jacklsw | WHO 2020: video games are good for your health in quarantine | 19:24 |
jacklsw | :D | 19:24 |
python476 | Nokaji: LjL: dank us | 19:26 |
Fitbin | It actually makes sense in context though. | 19:26 |
LjL | python476, anyway i've added a "Masks" section to my list of things nobody reads | 19:26 |
LjL | it is rather minimal for now, but it has some things | 19:26 |
ketas | LjL: maybe, but exposure and transfer from touch surfaces to phone to clothing to wallet to food package to food to fingers to mouth seems quite much... no? | 19:26 |
ketas | never read about that actually | 19:27 |
Nokaji | LjL: You might wann check out: https://www.n95decon.org/ - A scientific consortium for data-driven study of N95 decontamination | 19:27 |
LjL | ketas, probabilistically unlikely, but if we want to minimize probabilities then we'd want to minimize those behaviors anyway, since things add up | 19:27 |
pale_moon22k[m] | Anyone here living semi off grid? | 19:28 |
LjL | Nokaji, cool, i'll add that to my list | 19:28 |
ketas | LjL: i wish it would be possibls to see it with eyes | 19:28 |
LjL | that's a bit much to ask :P | 19:28 |
ketas | but common sense says that it adds up fast | 19:29 |
ketas | as seen on tv - spreads well despite measures | 19:30 |
aradesh | i wonder what the chance would be of getting infected, if you swallowed a single covid-19 virus? | 19:30 |
ThomCat[m] | LjL: Is BrainstormBot proprietary or do you have a clone-able git repo somewhere? | 19:30 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Remains of 90 million-year-old rainforest discovered under Antarctic ice (10004 votes) | https://redd.it/ftr0gr | 19:32 |
ketas | aradesh: no, it will die in loneliness and depression, it doesn't like social distancing | 19:32 |
ketas | :P | 19:32 |
LjL | ThomCat[m], semi-proprietary, because some of my crappy modules are quite intertwined together, and also i don't really do git. but you can get the source to the part that does COVID stuff | 19:33 |
LjL | %source covid | 19:33 |
Brainstorm | LjL, source code for module 'covid' can be found at https://paste.ee/p/rmkk7 | 19:33 |
ketas | paste.ee wtf | 19:34 |
ThomCat[m] | Beautiful, thanks! | 19:34 |
LjL | python476, also i've just been pointed to https://www.n95decon.org/ (and added it, but the bot won't report it because i restarted it) which seems relevant if you're meddling with masks | 19:35 |
Atque | Does recovering from COVID-19 confer long lasting immunity? | 19:41 |
pyna | unknown | 19:42 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:39 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 17:39: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/JTDGR1 | 19:43 |
LjL | Atque, it does seem to last a certain amount of time in most people. whether it lasts "long", as in, for a large portion of your life, will probably not be fully known until that amount of time has passed... | 19:45 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 17:45 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Stasera, incontro Conte con le regioni — from r/WorldNews at 17:45: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/KmNom7 | 19:47 |
BruntLIVE | With the CornonaVIrus we are paying the price for impeaching Trump and not showing unconditional love to him. Our deaths are in vain. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/read-trumps-letter-blaming-coronavirus-in-ny-on-impeachment.html | 19:50 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:47 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 17:47: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/JTDGR1 | 19:51 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 17:51 UTC: Coronavirus: Staying home this weekend 'not a request', UK told: People are told to stay at home this weekend in honour of two nurses who died with coronavirus. — from r/WorldNews at 17:51: 'Mask wars': US faces more accusations of Covid-19 outbidding as demand soars → https://is.gd/yrb9Db | 19:55 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:55 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Small businesses see $875 million in relief loans, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 17:55: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/JTDGR1 | 19:59 |
Jigsy | >Staying home this weekend 'not a request' | 20:00 |
Jigsy | So, what, we're not allowed to buy food on Saturday and Sunday now? | 20:00 |
oxalis | learn to bake | 20:01 |
Jigsy | What if I need ingredients, oxalis? | 20:01 |
oxalis | get them today | 20:02 |
AimHere | Good luck getting strong bread flour | 20:02 |
Jigsy | I have coeliac disease, so... | 20:03 |
Fitbin | Sort of considering packing a bag and going "innawoods" for a week or so. | 20:07 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:04 UTC: Coronavirus pandemic economic fallout 'way worse than the global financial crisis,' IMF chief says: "Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill," said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, during a press conference on the pandemic. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/FNh6MV | 20:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5688 cases (now 1080646), +1123 deaths (now 58129), +1606 recoveries (now 227668) since 45 minutes ago — France: +5233 cases (now 64338), +1120 deaths (now 6507), +1580 recoveries (now 14008) since 45 minutes ago — United Arab Emirates: +240 cases (now 1264), +1 deaths (now 9), +12 recoveries (now 108) since 45 minutes ago | 20:08 |
rajrajraj | but its aaaaaaaaaaaaaall right, sometimes you gotta be strong | 20:14 |
LjL | python476, any idea what's going on with France? huge death spike yesterday, which was attributed to nursing homes reporting data, but worse spike today | 20:20 |
aldwich | Jigsy: the way the BBC wrote the article, I think we're still allowed for essential food shopping, but it's more of an appeal not to take liberties when going for daily walk/exercise, to get carried away and then suddnely finding oneself doing a picnic in the local park with a glass of rose ... | 20:21 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 18:15 UTC: ljl-covid: Add Models section with IHME and Ontario — from r/WorldNews at 18:15: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/TMO4Cj | 20:21 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, there seems to be a problem with the graphs... apart from the fact many are not updated with today's data despite the data being on the CSV, right now if i select New York, i see 20817 deaths in a very scary graph, but the real data are | 20:24 |
LjL | %cases NY | 20:24 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In New York, US, there are 102863 cases, 2935 deaths (2.9% of cases), 0 recoveries as of 18 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 20:24 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:21 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Airlines ordered to give customers refunds, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 18:21: World leaders have failed to identify a single coronavirus antibody test which is accurate enough for use → https://is.gd/JTDGR1 | 20:28 |
aradesh | woah... almost 3000 deaths in new york alone | 20:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | when you look at this obvious ~7 sine pattern in https://corona.rki.de/, is this representing a pattern in behavior of the recorded subjects - like "infection during work time at office, no infections on weekend" - or do you think it's a meaningless "artifact" from procedures in health care? | 20:28 |
LjL | should be interesting to compare weekly patterns in case counts in countries where non-essential work is still allowed vs the ones where it isn't | 20:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, also countries where work is done on different weekdays, like free day = friday or saturday | 20:33 |
oriba | more plots: http://www.dkriesel.com/corona | 20:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | vs the western free day = sunday | 20:34 |
genera | more like on Sunday the Gesundheitsamt doesnt collect and send reports to rki | 20:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | genera: but the RKI sorts reports to the day they been registered, not the day they arrive - see yellow bars | 20:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1179 cases (now 1081825), +18 deaths (now 58147), +51 recoveries (now 227719) since 33 minutes ago — US: +753 cases (now 266259), +17 deaths (now 6803) since 33 minutes ago — Ohio, US: +410 cases (now 3312), +10 deaths (now 91) since 33 minutes ago | 20:37 |
rajrajraj | una rosa | 20:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the minima are on err... Mondays | 20:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | if it was for officials not working on weekends you'd expect the minima on weekends then | 20:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | unless there's an unknown factor introducing delay | 20:39 |
Nokaji | so, ... if this thing did come from bats - does this mean it can remain in cooked food AND infect us via our intestinal gut? | 20:40 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:35 UTC: Coronavirus pandemic economic fallout 'way worse than the global financial crisis,' IMF chief says: "Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy come to a standstill," said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, during a press conference on the pandemic. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/FNh6MV | 20:40 |
Nokaji | if I had a third Q, it would be: Who the heck eats bat without first gutting the thing? | 20:43 |
AimHere | Nokaji, Ozzy Osbourne? | 20:44 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:43 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Airlines ordered to give customers refunds, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 18:43: World leaders have failed to identify a single coronavirus antibody test which is accurate enough for use → https://is.gd/JTDGR1 | 20:46 |
Nokaji | AimHere: true that ... possibly | 20:47 |
Nokaji | p'haps Bojo is not fairing so well bcz he's carrying a few extra lbs | 20:49 |
Nokaji | he's not looking well, apparently | 20:49 |
AimHere | It would be a funny way to go for him | 20:50 |
AimHere | https://preview.redd.it/fvm298owemq41.jpg?width=768&auto=webp&s=4416858afd16295bdc5b24118324530fcde30b16 <- Coronavirus-related kidnapping in Edinburgh | 20:51 |
xrogaan | The US as a perfect exponential line. The best line. | 20:56 |
AimHere | Deaths is; cases is slightly subexponential | 20:56 |
LjL | Nokaji, i don't believe your implied assumptions are though to be correct. it "comes from" bat in that it's similar enough to a bat virus to make that most likely, but an intermediate host is believed to have been responsible, not a bat. also, it almost certainly didn't come from cooked food, but interaction with live animals or raw meat. | 20:57 |
Nokaji | LjL: I'm not saying it came from bat ... my Q was an "if", I'm saying others say it came from bat, with lots of references to bat soup but I appreciate your response nonetheless | 20:59 |
Nokaji | if that were the case, it would raise questions of transmission paths and susceptibility to high temps | 21:00 |
IronY | Ontario released its "Dire and sobering death predictions, with mitigation included" | 21:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Nokaji: the virus supposed to decay at 80°C or less. So the bat has to be medium rare too | 21:01 |
IronY | 0.1 to 1.0% of the population | 21:01 |
IronY | is their "worst case scenario" | 21:01 |
Nokaji | DocScrutinizer05: yup, I heard 59C ... or on a face mask cooked at 70C | 21:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | that's why I said 80° | 21:01 |
LjL | nalkri, well, bat soup isn't even a Chinese food, and a lot of claims that it came from people eating bats or bat soup were based on videos that have been flatly debunked | 21:01 |
LjL | videos/images | 21:02 |
Nokaji | 70C was for half hour | 21:02 |
Nokaji | LjL: fair enough ... they didn't seem to do more than pick at the wings in those vids | 21:02 |
LjL | IronY, 1% mortality rate, on the whole population? | 21:02 |
IronY | LjL: year there upper bounds is 100,000 on a 14.96 million people population | 21:03 |
nalkri | LjL: I don't think I said anything about bats or soup | 21:03 |
IronY | lower bounds being 3000 | 21:03 |
IronY | seems a bit optimistic | 21:03 |
IronY | sorruy 15,000 upper bounds | 21:03 |
IronY | Nokaji: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575 | 21:04 |
IronY | oops lgl: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575 | 21:04 |
IronY | Population of ontario as of 2019: 14.57 million | 21:04 |
IronY | " COVID-19 could kill 3,000 to 15,000 people in the province over the course of the pandemic, the ramifications of which could last up to two years. | 21:04 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>0.1 to 1.0% of the population<< sounds like the bitter truth | 21:04 |
IronY | DocScrutinizer05: My argument is that seems fairly low for a upper bounds | 21:05 |
LjL | ah yeah, it's the model i added to https://covid19.specops.network/#models a short while ago | 21:05 |
IronY | oh sweet ur tracking models | 21:05 |
IronY | +1 | 21:05 |
LjL | IronY, the 100k is the prediction if no interventions are made | 21:05 |
LjL | well i just started | 21:05 |
IronY | LjL: Quite a nice bit of information for just starting, good job | 21:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: >>Robert Koch-Institut's COVID-19-Dashboard for Germany<< is https://corona.rki.de, the garbled URL is to testify their fubar website/web management | 21:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1766 cases (now 1083746), +11 deaths (now 58168) since 19 minutes ago — Germany: +1126 cases (now 90964), +4 deaths (now 1234) since 19 minutes ago — Canada: +628 cases (now 12375), +5 deaths (now 178) since 19 minutes ago | 21:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I just an hour ago looked it up since I felt it sucked | 21:08 |
BobCat | anagram for "corona virus" is "carnivorous" | 21:08 |
BobCat | also racoon virus | 21:08 |
Nokaji | indeed ... peta are already on to that one | 21:09 |
IronY | Racoon virus, pepsi can, bottle cap, racoon city, half life 3 confirmed? | 21:09 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:00 UTC: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo says state saw its biggest single-day increase in coronavirus deaths on Thursday — from r/WorldNews at 19:00: WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus → https://is.gd/OV4lRw | 21:09 |
BobCat | My friends who worked at valve said half life 3 was being worked on by unicorns | 21:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: I don't know if a similar URL mess applies to https://sites.google.com/view/covid19-intel/europe/germany | 21:11 |
BobCat | Gabe kept complaining no one was making hl3 "Why is no one doiong that, I could make a billion dollars" | 21:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: ^^^ last one is quite useful afaict | 21:13 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: thanks. fixed. Since adding in the new csv data source for the states I've just been using fixed column numbers for the data and the format changed so it broke. I'll get around to using column names shortly. | 21:14 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 19:14 UTC: ljl-covid: Change RKI to official URL — from r/WorldNews at 19:14: WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus → https://is.gd/WhNLKj | 21:18 |
Nokaji | Brainstorm: I heard that if you look at corona patients in a hospital, there are just as many young ppl as old - can't confirm that myself and it could be from a sample of just one hospital | 21:22 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:31 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Field hospitals set up around the world, Fauci warns about 'knockout drug' — from r/WorldNews at 19:31: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/JTDGR1 | 21:34 |
Timvde | Nokaji: Brainstorm is a bot | 21:39 |
Nokaji | Timvde: it crossed my mind, was looking to see if someone had called it .. thx for the clarif. | 21:40 |
Nokaji | I'm typing with one hand and rescuing a burning plane with the other, so my attention isn't always 100% | 21:41 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, I find the same thing when rescuing a burning plane | 21:42 |
tinwhiskers | o.O | 21:42 |
BobCat | gamers... | 21:43 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Trump orders medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada (10184 votes) | https://redd.it/fu95vz | 21:50 |
Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica at 19:45 UTC: Features: Should you wear a face mask? Here’s all the data we have — from r/WorldNews at 19:45: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/2zo5mi | 21:50 |
phantomcircuit | Nokaji, there are generally many more young people in the world, so 50/50 means it's vastly more dangerous for elderly people | 21:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4230 cases (now 1087976), +160 deaths (now 58328), +254 recoveries (now 227989) since 54 minutes ago — US: +3717 cases (now 269996), +121 deaths (now 6924), +32 recoveries (now 12015) since 54 minutes ago — Michigan, US: +1953 cases (now 12744), +62 deaths (now 479) since 54 minutes ago | 21:54 |
Nokaji | phantomcircuit: quite possibly but it speaks to the claim that young ppl are somehow immune | 21:57 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:54 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: US coronavirus live: Pelosi calls for another stimulus bill amid soaring job losses — from r/WorldNews at 19:54: COVID-19: German official accuses US of ‘modern piracy → https://is.gd/mjLxxn | 21:58 |
Pici | I can only speak for my hospital (in NJ), but the biggest group of positive patients are in the 50-80 age range | 21:59 |
ubLIX | ofc that group is at the end of the spectrum most likely to take the infection and convert it into a need for hospitalisation | 22:01 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:05 UTC: Covid-19: De Blasio urges US enlistment program for doctors and nurses: Mayor calls for medics to be moved to places in greatest need New York City prepares for surge in coronavirus cases New York City mayor Bill de Blasio has called for a national enlistment program for doctors and nurses to handle an expected surge [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/jYoYhH | 22:15 |
aradesh | ouch... over 1000 again in france | 22:18 |
Acheron | US suffers worst daily death toll in the world at nearly 1,200 | 22:19 |
Acheron | and here its just getting started | 22:19 |
nixonix | the older they are, the more previous medical conditions. but whats the share of younger age groups? (in that hospital) and for all patients, and ICU | 22:19 |
Acheron | https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/coronavirus-signal-capitalism-200330092216678.html | 22:20 |
ecks | sweden has kind of sobering numbers from the ICU | 22:21 |
ecks | median age 62 | 22:22 |
Shock | !cases sweden | 22:22 |
Acheron | most counties/states are keeping the numbers anonymous so its hard to tell exactly how each age group 20-30, 30-40, 40-50 and so on are responding | 22:23 |
Acheron | the numbers are quite fuzzy, especially here in the US | 22:23 |
CovBot | In Sweden there have been a total of 6,131 cases as of 2020-04-03 20:19:00 UTC. Of these 5,568 (90.8%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 205 (3.3%) have definitely recovered and 358 (5.8%) have died. | 22:23 |
Guest80520 | https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/ | 22:24 |
Pici | Acheron: here in the US we just got requests from the federal government to submit detailed data on our patients | 22:24 |
Acheron | Guest80520, right but that does not show any age breakdown | 22:25 |
Pici | at my hospital we've been spending a lot of time providing data for internal use, and haven't even gotten to the external report requests | 22:25 |
Acheron | and testing is still hard to come by | 22:26 |
Pici | its gotten better | 22:26 |
Acheron | if more people were tested, the mortality rate would drop | 22:26 |
Pici | but we still don't test people who aren't showing symptoms | 22:26 |
Acheron | those are the main spreaders here, younger people with no symptoms | 22:27 |
ecks | same in finland, we are apparently not even maxing capacity... | 22:27 |
Shock | %cases netherlands | 22:27 |
Brainstorm | Shock: In all areas, Netherlands, there are 15723 cases, 1487 deaths (9.5% of cases), 250 recoveries as of 8 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data. | 22:27 |
LjL | there are clues that asymptomatic people may be around 50%. make it even 100% for margin... the death rates are still unsettling | 22:27 |
Nokaji | Acheron: USA doesn't look quite so bad if you make a direct comparison against europe as a whole | 22:27 |
ecks | USA is well on its way | 22:28 |
Nokaji | nixonix: iirc, 80% of deaths 'was' over 60's | 22:28 |
Shock | where's the bot that also gave info on case fatality rate? | 22:28 |
Pici | as a whole maybe... but normalized by population only Spain has a higher infection count | 22:28 |
Acheron | and it hasn't yet gotten into areas where a lot of people don't have health insurance, its there but wait a couple more weaks | 22:28 |
Acheron | weeks | 22:28 |
Pici | (well italy too, but not at the same number of days in) | 22:28 |
Nokaji | Acheron: this has a breakdown for likelihood of death based upon age - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus | 22:29 |
Acheron | US Deaths 6,898 ↑ 20% (+1132 past 24hr) | 22:29 |
LjL | Nokaji, take https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US;EU and align it to 100 cases, as is often done (although i personally have some perplexities over the arbitrary alignment). if we take this as a reasonable method of comparison, deaths in the US are tracking the ones in the EU, while cases are rising faster (possibly due to wider testing...? doubtful somehow) | 22:29 |
LjL | sam Pici | 22:30 |
LjL | same* | 22:30 |
LjL | not calling you Sam | 22:30 |
Nokaji | didn't usa say any corona treatment would be free, regardless | 22:30 |
Pici | Nokaji: the president may have said that, but he didn't actually mean it. | 22:31 |
Acheron | usa say any corona treatment would be free, regardless NO WAY | 22:31 |
Pici | LjL: I know :P | 22:31 |
Acheron | no way its happening here | 22:31 |
CoronaBot | /r/worldnews: Coronavirus: face masks bound for Canada and Germany diverted to US - Germany's interior minister deplores 'act of modern piracy' (10081 votes) | https://redd.it/fua4yw | 22:32 |
Nokaji | LjL: U govt aligned at 50 in their speech earlier today .... interesting comparison nonetheless, tells a whole 'nuther story -thx | 22:33 |
LjL | Nokaji, yes, i do have to admit if you change the alignment point things don't quite look the same | 22:33 |
Nokaji | UK govt** | 22:33 |
Pici | anyway, I'm supposed to be figuring out how many hours I spent working on COVID-19 related stuff this week, and I don't think hanging out in here counts. | 22:34 |
LjL | Nokaji, https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ (or the "Growth trajectory" graph at https://covidly.com/graph) show a different kind of comparison that doesn't need an arbitrary alignment point | 22:35 |
LjL | i don't know of a website that provides that graph for the EU as a whole though | 22:35 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1886 cases (now 1090147), +34 deaths (now 58486) since 17 minutes ago — US: +1090 cases (now 271152), +19 deaths (now 6946) since 17 minutes ago — Connecticut, US: +1090 cases (now 4914), +19 deaths (now 131) since 17 minutes ago | 22:36 |
LjL | Pici, yes can you make this figure above stop growing by 1000 every ten minutes or so please? | 22:36 |
nixonix | Pici: did they look similar to this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says | 22:36 |
Nokaji | I guess they need to align at a bigger enough number to remove any random factors but then if the result keeps changinf as the alignment changes, I guess we are down to different modalities based on perceived risk/situation and that these keep changing every revision ... I can see how that might be problematic, maybe more useful inbetween each revision | 22:36 |
Nokaji | not sure that even made any sense but good luck with interpreting it :) | 22:37 |
Pici | Nokaji: I don't have the in front of me to investigate that. Age is the easiest thing to pull out of the data that I have on hand. | 22:37 |
Nokaji | i.o.w. regardless of alignment number,the curve will change every time they change their M.O. | 22:37 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/worldnews: 3M refused Trump’s demand to divert 10 million N95 masks produced in Singapore to the US. The masks are produced in Singapore and exported to countries in Asia. (11209 votes) | https://redd.it/fubxup | 22:38 |
Nokaji | Pici: By 'your' hospital, did you mean you are staff? | 22:38 |
Pici | Nokaji: I work in IT | 22:39 |
Nokaji | okay, I'll assume not hospital IT then | 22:39 |
Pici | But this past week I've been partly responsibe for coming up for the COVID-19 reports for our internal infection control team. | 22:39 |
Nokaji | I don't recall anyone saying they are hospital staff in any chat room, now I think about it | 22:39 |
Nokaji | oh ... right | 22:40 |
Nokaji | or supermarket staff, for that matter | 22:40 |
Nokaji | or any shop staff | 22:41 |
KpaHucTTa | Pici I think every single person here on irc works in IT. | 22:41 |
ecks | thankfully not | 22:41 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: I don't think there is any reason to align to 100. You should adjust that number until you get the best alignment. 100 is often not the best number, particularly for large countries. | 22:41 |
tinwhiskers | that's why you can set it after all | 22:41 |
LjL | hospital workers have most definitely been here. they may not necessarily want to advertise their status as such | 22:41 |
Pici | KpaHucTTa, Nokaji: I mean that I work for a hospital's IT department. | 22:42 |
Nokaji | Pici: Yes, that dawned on me when you described your project | 22:42 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah but if i set it differently i can seem to get a different alignment, as in, a different story being told. so while that type of graph is widely used i'm not sure how really meaningful it is | 22:42 |
ecks | i don't work in a hospital but i do hang around a hospital a lot | 22:42 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: agreed | 22:42 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, to be fair even if i'm right about that, it's the existence of your site and the fact you made it adjustable that made me realize it... | 22:43 |
LjL | Pici, may you never drop your tables or null your pointers | 22:43 |
tinwhiskers | If nothing else, adjusting the number you align at tells you how sensitive that is to change the story it tells. For many countries, adjusting that doesn't change the story so you can take it with a little less salt. | 22:46 |
tinwhiskers | * for many comparisons | 22:46 |
term99 | %data us | 22:46 |
Brainstorm | term99: In all areas, US, there are 271152 cases, 6946 deaths (2.6% of cases), 12015 recoveries as of 16 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 22:46 |
tinwhiskers | I find a number more like 500 is better than 100 because things happen so slowly around 100 | 22:47 |
oriba | LjL: did you know the Italy dashboard? Has some details, you likely will not find so easy: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/4f74fc222b7041cd9cc3c52e62af1b8c | 22:48 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 20:45 UTC: US airlines must apply soon for coronavirus relief grants — then comes the hard part: U.S. airline executives face a test to see which sacrifices they are willing to make in exchange for federal aid that would allow them to continue paying their employees during the coronavirus pandemic. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/KeEStM | 22:50 |
LjL | oriba, actually, i did... and didn't... it *is* listed at https://covid19.specops.network/ but i guess i hadn't looked at it enough before to notice it has ICU admissions and hospital vs self-isolation. i need to check those numbers though... i thought ICU was higher than 3.4%, although i know it's been going down | 22:50 |
oriba | maybe they added the data later. RKI also has very local data now, which they did not had before. | 22:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1462 cases (now 1091609), +42 deaths (now 58528) since 21 minutes ago — US: +1462 cases (now 272614), +42 deaths (now 6988) since 21 minutes ago — Massachusetts, US: +1436 cases (now 10402), +38 deaths (now 192) since 21 minutes ago | 22:51 |
LjL | oriba, Il Sole 24 Ore remains the best source for Italy, though. it's different because it's much less of a map, but the numbers are the most detailed you can get unless you hunt the websites of single municipalities | 22:53 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 20:48 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Notes on the worst outbreaks at various levels, as reflected in the NYT trackers. — from r/WorldNews at 20:48: Sailors cheer for aircraft carrier commander who was removed after issuing coronavirus warning → https://is.gd/7HBxM0 | 22:54 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 20:58 UTC: ljl-covid: Fix spelling of Il Sole 24 Ore — from r/WorldNews at 20:58: Sailors cheer for aircraft carrier commander who was removed after issuing coronavirus warning → https://is.gd/P6UIx1 | 23:03 |
Xeon3D | %data Portugal | 23:03 |
Brainstorm | Xeon3D: In all areas, Portugal, there are 9886 cases, 246 deaths (2.5% of cases), 68 recoveries as of 15 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Portugal for time series data. | 23:03 |
Nokaji | NEWS: St Johns Ambulance UK warns of likely collapse if no help rec'd - is costing it £1.5M a week to fight the corona | 23:05 |
LjL | %data Romania | 23:11 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Romania, there are 3183 cases, 133 deaths (4.2% of cases), 283 recoveries as of 8 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Romania for time series data. | 23:11 |
LjL | an article about Romania says its medical workers are very disproportionately affected | 23:11 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:13 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Lydia Nusbaum su Twitter: "BREAKING: @GovernorKayIvey mandates a stay-at-home order for the entire state." — from r/WorldNews at 21:13: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/h4t0eu | 23:16 |
python476 | simulations of microdroplets in Japan https://youtu.be/H2azcn7MqOU?t=151 | 23:16 |
stinkpot | hi LjL | 23:16 |
python476 | based on the potential non big-droplet based infection | 23:16 |
stinkpot | romania has had a worsening healthcare system for sometime now ljl | 23:17 |
stinkpot | i'm not too sure of the details but i remember reading a lengthy article about it | 23:17 |
LjL | yes | 23:17 |
synaps3 | %data serbia | 23:18 |
Brainstorm | synaps3: In all areas, Serbia, there are 1476 cases, 39 deaths (2.6% of cases), 54 recoveries as of 15 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Serbia for time series data. | 23:18 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:15 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Updates from the NYT tracker for death trajectories. — from r/WorldNews at 21:15: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/uBuR0n | 23:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2046 cases (now 1093655), +218 deaths (now 58746), +33 recoveries (now 228038) since 33 minutes ago — Spain: +1489 cases (now 119199), +189 deaths (now 11198) since 33 minutes ago — Brazil: +795 cases (now 9056), +15 deaths (now 359) since an hour ago | 23:21 |
Akash[m] | %data India | 23:21 |
Brainstorm | Akash[m]: In all areas, India, there are 2567 cases, 72 deaths (2.8% of cases), 192 recoveries as of 2 minutes ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 23:21 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:19 UTC: (news): More than 1 million people tested for coronavirus in US, but access varies from state to state — from r/WorldNews at 21:19: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/cPjgSs | 23:24 |
ubLIX | might find some interest here; hand waving description: project for network theoretic approach to drug design via viral-host protein mapping: https://covid.barabasilab.com/ | 23:27 |
LjL | ubLIX, "Interestingly, we also predict that the virus may invade multiple brain tissues, which may help explain to the loss of taste and smell in infected individuals." eeek :( | 23:30 |
tinwhiskers | o.O | 23:31 |
tinwhiskers | Video showing how much a mask stops an infected person spreading droplets: https://twitter.com/DrJonnys/status/1245744488548532224 | 23:32 |
CoJaBo | LjL: Isn't that also true of the flu tho? | 23:32 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:25 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Italy records 766 more deaths but infection rate continues to slow — from r/WorldNews at 21:25: NYC Landlord Who Owns 80 Apartments Cancels April Rent Due to Coronavirus → https://is.gd/rMZtOW | 23:33 |
LjL | CoJaBo, the flu gets into the brain? | 23:33 |
CoJaBo | LjL: Not AFAIK, but it still results in "the loss of taste and smell in infected individuals" | 23:33 |
CoJaBo | So trying to claim that based on that seems weak :P | 23:33 |
tinwhiskers | CoJaBo: you do lose some sense of taste due to being congested (smell is a big part of taste). You sure it's not just that? | 23:34 |
LjL | CoJaBo, well they're not predicting brain damage *based* on the loss of taste and smell; they are predicting it with their own methods, and they *suggest* it may explain that. there are other papers that suggest CNS involvement, anyway. | 23:34 |
Nokaji | smell does recover in some if not all cases | 23:36 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:34 UTC: Watch live: Coronavirus task force holds briefing after Pelosi calls for more spending: Members of the coronavirus task force hold a press briefing Friday hours after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for another bill expanding on the $2 trillion package Congress passed last week. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/KvhQwJ | 23:37 |
stinkpot | the loss of smell and taste is an ultra-common symptom of 'colds' going back hundreds of years | 23:37 |
bin_bash | yeah i was about to ay | 23:39 |
bin_bash | say** | 23:39 |
lf94 | lol | 23:39 |
Nokaji | anosmia | 23:39 |
bin_bash | that happens with any URI | 23:39 |
ubLIX | LjL: my gloss was that it was academic research highly removed from observational evidence; not at all yet appropriate to take it as justification for fearing the degree of CNS invasion its suggestions are consistent with | 23:39 |
tinwhiskers | The flu can damage your sense of smell. Fortunately, this is usually not permanent, though it may take it a while to return. Often, whether or not you regain your sense of smell depends upon the underlying cause. (first link) still reading | 23:39 |
Nokaji | it can happen as an only symptom | 23:40 |
ubLIX | although, i have bookmarked that page | 23:40 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 21:38 UTC: ljl-covid: Add study about taste/olfactory alterations — from r/WorldNews at 21:38: Nikki Haley accuses WHO of taking 'China's word' on coronavirus transmission → https://is.gd/Uiwpt1 | 23:41 |
oriba | Fraunhofer.de: germany: https://gisweb.iao.fraunhofer.de/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/7bdce1b92fbd4a79ab45e3d581a7ebc4 | 23:41 |
oriba | Fraunhofer.de: europe: https://gisweb.iao.fraunhofer.de/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/def030d5b8a7454b9d461d92294340ad | 23:42 |
LjL | i realize there is no certainty of this. but whenever i see something suggesting CNS involvement and/or other potentially permanent issues (including of course the virus itself remaining around), i get the creeps, what can i do. there's never "enough" evidence of it... until there is. | 23:42 |
oriba | Fraunhofer.de: global: https://gisweb.iao.fraunhofer.de/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/e8e59b5517b64d378fd13729d5db5ac7 | 23:42 |
Nokaji | they went way beyond just taking china's word .. they formulated policy that best served china, they even refused to recognise taiwan | 23:42 |
Nokaji | they carried china's water | 23:42 |
aradesh | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8cKzQuGqEE (Coronavirus update Apr 3: Will $2 TRILLION be enough?) | 23:43 |
Nokaji | every little bit helps | 23:43 |
wser | LjL: yeah MIC needs an enemy | 23:44 |
LjL | oriba, i'm tempted to add the Europe map since it has subnational units. does the Germany map offer anything additional to RKI to your knowledge? or the global one? | 23:44 |
Nokaji | UK says there will be an investigation into the handling of this and that WHO will be at the top | 23:44 |
Nokaji | wheter they meant WHO is prime culprit or WHO will be leading the investigation, remains to be seen - I suspect the latter | 23:45 |
ubLIX | me: *post thing with a variety of interesting angles, but also with some small mention of CNS invasion* | 23:45 |
ubLIX | LjL: *aaaaaaaaaah* | 23:45 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:42 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Trump: CDC recommends cloth face covering to protect against coronavirus — from r/WorldNews at 21:42: Nikki Haley accuses WHO of taking 'China's word' on coronavirus transmission → https://is.gd/pxYBbA | 23:45 |
tinwhiskers | they were in a slightly difficult position, because you need to kowtow to be allowed to keep a presence in China and keeping a presence was important, but they may well have gone too far. | 23:46 |
oriba | LjL: as far as I can see, the RKI has higher resolution than the Fraunhofer for germany. | 23:46 |
oriba | LjL: the global map from Fraunhofer looks interesting. But loading the data is massively | 23:46 |
oriba | LjL: at least the script is slow, Firefoy asks me to stop it... | 23:47 |
oriba | but interesting. | 23:47 |
oriba | Need a bigger screen for that | 23:47 |
aradesh | the WHO isn't to blame. all of the governments were surrounded by experts who would have told them, "we don't know for sure. but there is a real risk this could be very bad, and come to our countries, and many die" | 23:47 |
oriba | and maybe faster computer hehe | 23:47 |
aradesh | what's to blame is the culture of saving GDP at all costs, and it lead all of the western governments to leave taking actions to slow the spread to the last possible minute | 23:48 |
aradesh | they gambled with the lives of their people, so that didn't have to be the first ones to take the economic hit of imposing restrictions, until eventually forced to by events. | 23:49 |
Timvde | aradesh: That, and now the economic hit is probably harder | 23:49 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1129 cases (now 1094784), +39 deaths (now 58785), +71 recoveries (now 228109) since 32 minutes ago — US: +1059 cases (now 273984), +36 deaths (now 7040) since 32 minutes ago — Brazil: +795 cases (now 9056), +15 deaths (now 359) since an hour ago | 23:51 |
aradesh | politicians like trump or johnson don't need the WHO to tell them what the risks are, they have whole committees who were probably telling them the exact risks, and they took the decisions to take the actions that they did. | 23:51 |
aradesh | they rpobably always said, "we don't know for sure" which is what the politicians want to hear ^^ | 23:52 |
tinwhiskers | yes, but they can use advisories or lack thereof as an excuse for doing nothing. The WHO was gun shy and held back far too long. | 23:53 |
tinwhiskers | they got in a lot of trouble for announcing a previous pandemic that turned out to be more of an epidemic (MERS was it?) | 23:54 |
tinwhiskers | we're still being harmed by their advice that face masks do not help. | 23:55 |
tinwhiskers | the motivation may have been good, by keeping masks for health workers instead of the general population but it was handled wrong. | 23:55 |
spybert | The quality of the political leadership is sorely lacking | 23:55 |
aradesh | heh... up until yesterday, florida still didn't have a stay-at-home order | 23:56 |
tinwhiskers | As for the WHO accepting the Chinese at their word about the cases, I don't see what else they could have usefully done unless they had proof otherwise. They would have been kicked out of China for such an accusation. | 23:57 |
Nokaji | WHO were instructing nations to NOT stop flights or take any economic action that might harm china | 23:57 |
bin_bash | yeah the WHO should resign tbh | 23:57 |
tinwhiskers | I don't think that was just for the benefit of China | 23:58 |
bin_bash | all the WHO cares about is not upsetting poor widdle autocwats | 23:59 |
Nokaji | I'm not convinced that reserving masks for healthworkers is even such a grand idea ... I hear it can take hundreds of masks per dya to treat a single patient (unverified) or that a nurse can get through over 100 masks a day ... on that basis, a 100 masks could prevent more than one person ever falling ill ... prevention being better than cure | 23:59 |
Nokaji | plus UK has masks but won't distribute them | 23:59 |
tinwhiskers | Nokaji: fair | 23:59 |
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