| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Native Americans being left out of US coronavirus data and labelled as 'other' (10015 votes) | https://redd.it/g76gft | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| mefistofeles | ↑ heh | 00:00 |
| Sinovac | antibody do not last long | 00:01 |
| mefistofeles | Sinovac: we still don't know, it can happen that they don't last too long, indeed | 00:01 |
| LjL | pfft Guardian is getting a TAD misleading with its headlines too. i understand they don't love the US adminsitration, neither do i, but... | 00:01 |
| LjL | the article doesn't say they are "left out" of the data | 00:01 |
| mefistofeles | was that Guardian? | 00:01 |
| LjL | yeah | 00:01 |
| mefistofeles | Guardian is getting worse and worse | 00:02 |
| nixonix | LjL: did you get information on italian md's, share of males? | 00:02 |
| LjL | yeah, i saw some article earlier (that i didn't repost here) that was a bit of stretch, but i forget now | 00:02 |
| LjL | nixonix, oh yeah i forgot you had highlighted me about that... but no, not really | 00:02 |
| LjL | i'll have another go at searching | 00:02 |
| nixonix | that study i linked above had 90%. so maybe that 95% claim was true then | 00:03 |
| Sinovac | actually you don't need antibody to get immunity | 00:03 |
| mefistofeles | Sinovac: btw, that's why antibodies studies will continue for a year | 00:03 |
| mefistofeles | Sinovac: that's still not known | 00:04 |
| Sinovac | antibody is only issued if covid is detected | 00:04 |
| mefistofeles | Sinovac: what? | 00:04 |
| Sinovac | by the body | 00:04 |
| Sinovac | yes taht | 00:04 |
| Sinovac | that | 00:04 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | LjL: i'm only personally familiar with the hopkins dataset, sorry. | 00:05 |
| Sinovac | actually you don't need antibody to get immunity | 00:05 |
| mefistofeles | ah yes, there are even cases of the younger people not showing any antibodies after having positively tested for covid | 00:05 |
| ecks | all the covid irc channels should be renamed ##babbysfirstimmunology | 00:05 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | ^^ | 00:05 |
| mefistofeles | so this suggest other mechanisms, but still nothing conclusive | 00:05 |
| Sinovac | antibody shows you got covid recently | 00:05 |
| rager | antibody shows that your body created antibodies for covid-19 | 00:06 |
| rager | which is correlated with having cleared illness | 00:06 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | sars-cov-2 is the virus. covid-19 is the respiratory illness it can cause. | 00:06 |
| LjL | and they're likely to lasts at least for some months, based on what we know on other coronaviruses | 00:06 |
| rager | okay, okay | 00:06 |
| LjL | clearly we can't predict the future with this one | 00:06 |
| rager | for sars-cov-2 or 2019-ncove | 00:07 |
| rager | or whatever | 00:07 |
| nb | NoImNotNineVolt, hmm. so is it possible someone could get sars-cov-2 and only be a carrier and never get covid-19 i guess? | 00:07 |
| rager | when there's a 1:1 mapping on virus and diseases, the words are interchangeable, NoImNotNineVolt | 00:07 |
| LjL | nb, well what's the technical difference between that, and someone who has it asymptomatically? | 00:07 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | nb: it's estimated that 60% of sars-cov-2 carriers never develop any symptoms at all, let alone covid-19. | 00:07 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: still, many things behave like other things we know, it's not as if anything is possible and we are left out in the dark | 00:07 |
| rager | at what point are you an asymptomatic carrier vs having been exposed an not gotten ill? | 00:08 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | rager: i'm okay with being called pedantic, but i really prefer if we're precise with our words around complex subjects. | 00:08 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | rager: i don't see a difference. | 00:08 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, well, that's my point, we can mostly assume that they last for some months, which in reference to the studies in NY and Germany, to me, shows that if 15% of the population have antibodies, it is unlikely that MORE than 15% had COVID, nevermind a majority | 00:08 |
| LjL | it isn't an absolute certainty but we can assume it for now | 00:08 |
| ecks | maybe the antibodies were practicing social distancing and thus were not part of the blood drawn for the test | 00:09 |
| rager | NoImNotNineVolt: maybe there's a non-linearity somewhere in the relationship between viral load and infectiousness | 00:09 |
| rager | transmissivity, whatever | 00:10 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: it's a bit tricky | 00:10 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: there's a significant amount of people not showing antibodies, but let me get the exact numbers | 00:10 |
| rager | if there are some threshold conditions that make cases distinct, it's interesting, right? | 00:10 |
| mefistofeles | and let me rephrase that | 00:10 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, ah, yes, that part should be considered | 00:11 |
| rager | mefistofeles: 30% is the number i saw bandied about | 00:11 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | rager: there seems to be a clear discrepancy between patients regarding the relationship between viral load and presentation of symptoms. | 00:11 |
| LjL | rager, that was within a certain age range though, lower in general (6%?) | 00:11 |
| rager | but that was in the 20-50 age range in particular | 00:11 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: there's a significant amount of people not developing detectable loads of antibodies after being infected by covid and having recovered | 00:11 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | nonlinearity aside :P | 00:11 |
| mefistofeles | there :P | 00:11 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, make my point more... we have no reason to think the current antibody tests are missing people who have *already lost* antibodies despite initially having them. that said, yes, they should still be "corrected" for the amount of people who simply don't get antibodies | 00:11 |
| rager | NoImNotNineVolt: definitely - people seem to get worse symptoms from a worse initial exposure (and possibly a faster ramp-up of viral load?) | 00:12 |
| rager | does anybody here actually immune system? | 00:12 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | we don't have sufficient data regarding persistence of antibodies or persistence of immuninity. | 00:12 |
| rager | like... does concentration of antibodies in serum correlate with the body's capacity to make said antibodies? | 00:13 |
| berndj | rager, i wondered about that ramp-up | 00:13 |
| berndj | what's the eclipse period anyway? | 00:13 |
| rager | I don't know these kinds of things. | 00:13 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | to clarify, i don't immunity. i'm a bioinformatics student. | 00:14 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i doubt there's any clinicians on irc at a time like this, though :P | 00:14 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: ah right, yes | 00:16 |
| mefistofeles | I've read that up to 30% in an study didn't show a high antibody count, some didn't show any antibodies at all | 00:16 |
| mefistofeles | how low? not sure, and whether antibodies test can detect those, ni idea | 00:16 |
| mefistofeles | no* | 00:17 |
| friedbat | yes, several studies show low titers in a good amount of recovered patients | 00:17 |
| rager | might be lucky enough to get grad students in that kinda stuff | 00:18 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, again though i think the 30% was just in young patients, rager said in the 20-50 range | 00:22 |
| LjL | in total it might have been 6% | 00:22 |
| LjL | i mean among all people | 00:23 |
| LjL | still relevant, of course | 00:23 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: that 30% is for all, but yes, they are the younger patients | 00:24 |
| ubLIX | speaking of the Guardian being somewhat anti-American, how about the Associated Press view of the US right now: https://apnews.com/1283d176484e133f31080227bb15c5d1 | 00:24 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, oh, 30% in total? i have to reread it then, as i wouldn't know what the 6% number was then | 00:25 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: well, it literally says "30% of the entire cohort" | 00:25 |
| mefistofeles | so I assume it means all of them | 00:25 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/08/covid-19-antibody-update-for-april-8 fwiw | 00:25 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, if you're already re-reading it do you have linkie handy? | 00:25 |
| LjL | thanks | 00:25 |
| rager | these people have some numbers for seroconversion: https://www.assaygenie.com/antibody-seroconversion-response-in-covid19 | 00:26 |
| mefistofeles | rager: interesting | 00:30 |
| mefistofeles | maybe the paper cited in the blog I posted didn't waited enough? they say 10-15 days | 00:31 |
| rager | they're only seeing 93.1% seroconversion rates | 00:31 |
| mefistofeles | while that other says up to 39days, and that 50% was achieved in day 11 | 00:31 |
| rager | which is way better than 70%, at least | 00:31 |
| mefistofeles | rager: what does that mean? | 00:31 |
| mefistofeles | the seroconveration rate | 00:32 |
| mefistofeles | conversion | 00:32 |
| mefistofeles | oh man, I really need to get some rest xD x | 00:32 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, not entirely sure which hat i got 6% from. i guess it might be the amount of patients with NO measurable antibodies but i'm not even sure | 00:32 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: yes | 00:32 |
| mefistofeles | 10 out of 175 | 00:32 |
| rager | that's the hit-rate for antibodies in testing | 00:32 |
| mefistofeles | rager: like accuracy? | 00:33 |
| LjL | oh okay, at least i can't read and i can't remember where i read things, but i'm not making them up completely | 00:33 |
| rager | so 6.9% of participants in that study did not exhibit either igm or igg antibodies over the course of the experiment | 00:33 |
| mefistofeles | rager: ah ok, so similar numbers | 00:33 |
| mefistofeles | interesting | 00:33 |
| mefistofeles | they also have a very similar sample size | 00:33 |
| LjL | which means... only about 1% or so of people who register ANY antibodies at ANY point during the disease, subsequently lose them? | 00:33 |
| mefistofeles | only time varies | 00:33 |
| LjL | or is that too much of a leap | 00:33 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: wait? how? | 00:34 |
| rager | that's a leap | 00:34 |
| rager | since no study follows survivors for that long | 00:34 |
| rager | because it hasn't been that long | 00:34 |
| LjL | okay, yeah, i expressed myself incorrectly again | 00:34 |
| LjL | we don't know if antibodies last forever, or even for long | 00:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:30 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: Anzac Day dawn services marked in isolation – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 00:35 |
| LjL | but, 10/175 is about 5.7%, but unless i imsunderstood, you're saying 6.9% did not exhibit any antibodies ever | 00:35 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: but where does that 1% come from? | 00:35 |
| LjL | so, 1.2% exhibited them at some point, but then they didn't...? | 00:35 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: those are two different studies | 00:35 |
| mefistofeles | now I see the 1% :P | 00:36 |
| LjL | oh | 00:36 |
| LjL | okay i'm sorry, i don't actively try to fail to read things, it just happens | 00:36 |
| mefistofeles | so, it's around 6.3% xD | 00:37 |
| rager | uhh... sorry for long link | 00:37 |
| rager | https://www.mdlinx.com/journal-summaries/viral-infections-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome/2020/03/31/7635124/ gets there eventually | 00:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6755 cases (now 922293), +369 deaths (now 52061) since an hour ago — Massachusetts, US: +4946 cases (now 50969), +196 deaths (now 2556) since a day ago — Canada: +1304 cases (now 44856) since an hour ago | 00:39 |
| rager | so past studies could have not followed people long enough | 00:39 |
| rager | to quote: "The cumulative seroconversion curve showed that the rate for Ab and IgM reached 100% around 1-month after onset" | 00:39 |
| rager | methodology: | 00:41 |
| rager | "A total of 173 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled. Their serial plasma samples (n=535) collected during the hospitalization were tested for total antibodies (Ab), IgM and IgG against SARS-CoV-2. The dynamics of antibodies with the disease progress was analyzed. | 00:41 |
| tinwhiskers | Thanks rager. That's interesting | 00:41 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v2 the other one is this, fwiw | 00:41 |
| rager | but "total antibodies" sounds like "we couldn't find knon sars-cov-2 specific antibodies" | 00:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic at 22:38 UTC: Why It’s Important Not to Drink Bleach: One of the few definitive things that can be said about reopening the U.S. economy is that any plan will involve aggressive hygiene and sanitizing. Because the coronavirus can live on surfaces for several days, it seems to spread more often via something you touched than [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Or1j6E | 00:42 |
| ytlyv8 | https://www.mdlinx.com/internal-medicine/top-medical-news/article/2020/03/30/7635117 | 00:42 |
| mefistofeles | LOL | 00:42 |
| mefistofeles | "why it's important not to drink bleach" | 00:42 |
| pyna | best possible future | 00:42 |
| mefistofeles | fucking trump xD | 00:42 |
| ytlyv8 | vote for trumpp you will get a cure lol | 00:44 |
| bin_bash | https://i.imgur.com/xTCg9Cn.jpg | 00:44 |
| mefistofeles | haha | 00:44 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 00:45 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Miami goes seven weeks without a homicide for first time since 1957 (10078 votes) | https://redd.it/g7egky | 00:48 |
| mefistofeles | oh that's right, crime rates should be really low in many places | 00:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:39 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: Anzac Day dawn services marked in isolation – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 00:49 |
| livebrain | here someone tried to rob an atm machine by drinving into it | 00:50 |
| livebrain | and they engaged the police | 00:50 |
| livebrain | one criminal was shot | 00:50 |
| rager | gonna have a lot less "stochastic crime" as the pressure of the operating fluid is far lower | 00:51 |
| rager | by driving into them? | 00:51 |
| pyna | huh, pretty good https://developer.aylien.com/text-api-demo?run=1&input=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fhealth%2Farchive%2F2020%2F04%2Ftrump-bleach-coronavirus%2F610690%2F&language=en&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fhealth%2Farchive%2F2020%2F04%2Ftrump-bleach-coronavirus%2F610690%2F&&tab=concepts | 00:51 |
| Sinovac | i hope life never goes back to normal | 00:51 |
| Sinovac | its so peaceful right now | 00:51 |
| livebrain | well i wouldnt mind a vaccine | 00:52 |
| ytlyv8 | kill the weaklings | 00:52 |
| livebrain | i have to go out for work | 00:52 |
| livebrain | and i freak out everytime i ear someone coughing | 00:52 |
| livebrain | and everytime i cough i think im gone | 00:53 |
| ytlyv8 | licks live | 00:53 |
| Sinovac | use perfume | 00:53 |
| Sinovac | lots of it | 00:53 |
| livebrain | that will attrack alot of women :( | 00:53 |
| livebrain | i cant | 00:53 |
| Sinovac | keeps people away | 00:53 |
| livebrain | social distanting | 00:53 |
| Sinovac | and kill virus | 00:54 |
| Sinovac | its totality legal form of chemicalwarfare | 00:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 22:52 UTC: nCoV: Bored At Home | Tips For What To Do When You’re Bored in Quarantine (3 BENEFITS!) | 24APR20 → https://is.gd/gHQs2a | 00:56 |
| friedbat | 21 minute press briefing so i guess they figured out that making dumb comments about disinfectants isn't the best thing to do | 00:56 |
| Sinovac | might attract bees thou | 00:57 |
| Sinovac | just dumb? | 00:57 |
| tinwhiskers | wow. that must be about a record, friedbat | 00:58 |
| ytlyv8 | coat all infected areas with honey | 00:58 |
| Sinovac | if i made such claims in here i would get kicked | 00:58 |
| hirogen | I've realised that since covid started | 00:59 |
| friedbat | tinwhiskers: i think so, 21 minutes is very short. they're usually hours. | 00:59 |
| hirogen | there's this bird which I've never heard before at night make strange sounds | 00:59 |
| hirogen | never ever | 00:59 |
| hirogen | so even as a kid in the 80's in a green location it must have never come so close to civilisation dunno why though, maybe everyones feeding birds who know or the lack of pollution is my guess | 01:00 |
| Sinovac | coroninghale? | 01:00 |
| Sinovac | its just like the legend movie | 01:01 |
| Sinovac | with will smith | 01:01 |
| LjL | hirogen, not sure, but you're not the first report of this kind that i hear | 01:01 |
| LjL | animals are probably taking some of their spaces back, to some limited extent | 01:02 |
| mefistofeles | yes, that has been seen and quantified iirc | 01:02 |
| tinwhiskers | also people taking time to smell the roses, less road noise, less pollution, etc | 01:02 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: what? how does that roses thing is pertinent? haha | 01:03 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet at 00:00 UTC: [Perspectives] Modelling can only tell us so much: politics explains the rest: I've been self-isolating with my family because we developed fevers. Whether this is any illness or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is hard to say given the UK Government's position on community testing. How this infection started, how [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/AJLM2y | 01:03 |
| mefistofeles | today I got my "terrorist" mask :P | 01:04 |
| tinwhiskers | "time to smell the roses" means taking time to be more aware of your surroundings | 01:04 |
| Sinovac | time for a bat invasion movie | 01:04 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: photos? | 01:04 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i understand, i'm just not sure the cops will | 01:04 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: :-) | 01:05 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: maybe monday, we will be raiding a supermarket with some friends, all wearing these masks | 01:05 |
| LjL | lucky enough though we have some roses in the yard | 01:05 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: home made? | 01:05 |
| LjL | i think i am allowed to linger in our yard for a bit | 01:05 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: no, amazon | 01:05 |
| tinwhiskers | link? | 01:05 |
| LjL | not in the building halls, but at least the yard | 01:05 |
| ytlyv8 | you have your mask report to your new job bank guard | 01:06 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: I didn't buy them, but let me see if there's some name of brand or something | 01:06 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. ok | 01:06 |
| mefistofeles | it just says, face mask, made in china XD | 01:06 |
| LjL | we buy too much bottled water... i wanted to buy one of these filter jugs but it won't fit in the fridge, and from what i understand it's not exceedingly safe to keep it unrefrigerated | 01:06 |
| Sinovac | roses don't smell like much | 01:07 |
| tinwhiskers | erm. yeah, it's an idiom or some such, not intended literally. | 01:07 |
| friedbat | i don't know about you all, but i've noticed more vibrant wildlife | 01:08 |
| friedbat | since this worldwide quarantine | 01:08 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | LjL: i've been keeping one unrefrigerated for years with no known adverse effects. | 01:08 |
| friedbat | we're the virus | 01:08 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | it's just water. | 01:08 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: http://i.ebayimg.com/images/i/221969287894-0-1/s-l1000.jpg similar to that one | 01:09 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | people have been storing water unrefrigerated since the invention of pottery, and they didn't even have the benefit of chlorine or carbon filters. | 01:09 |
| LjL | NoImNotNineVolt, how often do you change the cartridges? the thing is, tap water is chlorinated for safety... these jugs remove the chlorine, because that's like 75% of their point as people don't like the taste. but then you have water that's sitting there and *without* its usual disinfectant in it | 01:09 |
| tinwhiskers | my water sits in a tank out in the sun, often for six mnonths. it's fine even with a bit of bat poop in it. | 01:09 |
| LjL | NoImNotNineVolt, people have also gotten all sorts of foodborne diseases, though | 01:09 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: ninja! | 01:09 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | fair enough. | 01:09 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: yeah | 01:09 |
| LjL | i don't think just "people have done it for millennia" is a good enough reassurance :P | 01:10 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i mean, i haven't gotten dysentery once :P | 01:10 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i'm but an anecdote, but still. | 01:10 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, maybe you'll be the first COVID-19 case on the island and it won't be even human-to-human. ain't that exciting? | 01:10 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 01:10 |
| tinwhiskers | there's all sorts of things that could grow in water sitting around, such as toxic algae, so it could go bad for sure. | 01:11 |
| ytlyv8 | little bleach in the water your good | 01:11 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i don't think filtering chlorinated water some more before storing it in a clean receptacle is a significant risk to my health. | 01:11 |
| tinwhiskers | NoImNotNineVolt: no | 01:11 |
| LjL | ytlyv8, if i'm using a jug to get rid of the chlorine i'll probably not be adding bleach back | 01:11 |
| ytlyv8 | try moonshine | 01:11 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: better inject yourself with bleach | 01:12 |
| LjL | NoImNotNineVolt, probably not, but the cartridges in these things have already been known to harbor some bacteria, so my concern is it may have more bacteria than it does out of the tap, *and* no chlorine to keep them in check | 01:12 |
| ytlyv8 | vinger for cleaning | 01:12 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, grabbing the needle | 01:12 |
| Sinovac | moonshine kills covid | 01:12 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | at least not any more of a risk than would otherwise be posed by tainting the purity of my precious bodily fluids with foreign substances | 01:12 |
| tinwhiskers | Sinovac: that's the sort of comment that spreads confusion | 01:12 |
| mefistofeles | Sinovac: yes, just stop the nonsense | 01:13 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | covid is a respiratory disease and cannot be killed :P | 01:13 |
| LjL | NoImNotNineVolt, this time i'm almost not rolling my eye at your distinguishing between COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 | 01:13 |
| LjL | which, by the way, is annoyingly annoying to type | 01:13 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | ncov works too. | 01:13 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: if there are no human or living being to get a disease is it still a disease? | 01:13 |
| mefistofeles | phylosophical question | 01:14 |
| mefistofeles | ;) | 01:14 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | mefistofeles: a good question, and the corrolary: is death an effective preventative treatment for this pandemic? | 01:14 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: we need to start trials | 01:14 |
| Sinovac | preventative no | 01:14 |
| Sinovac | it might mitigate it | 01:15 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | no? r0>1 for dead people? | 01:15 |
| mefistofeles | heh | 01:15 |
| mefistofeles | anyways, nite o/ | 01:15 |
| tinwhiskers | Sinovac: no | 01:15 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | it's 5oclock somewhere, happy friday. | 01:16 |
| friedbat | what are the latest best estimates for R₀ given strong mitigation (stay at home, closed non-essential business, closed schools)? | 01:16 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | w/ error bars pls | 01:16 |
| tinwhiskers | Sinovac: if you had enough alcohol in your system to have any effect whatsoever you'd be dead. That's exactly the sort of nonsense Trump was spreading and it does harm as it confuses people. Don't speculate on medical advice as if it's a fact | 01:17 |
| Sinovac | alcohol in your system? | 01:17 |
| Nsvsonido | people from USA, what we get in Europe about your country is that there are demonstrations against lock down, and calling all this a HOAX... please tell me that is not true and what we see is minioritary | 01:17 |
| tinwhiskers | moonshine | 01:17 |
| friedbat | i recall that initially they were discussing R₀ between 2 and 3, or therabouts | 01:18 |
| friedbat | and that was without mitigation | 01:18 |
| Sinovac | i mean your throat | 01:18 |
| Sinovac | the virus dies off | 01:18 |
| friedbat | does strong mitigation get us far below the threshhold 1.0? | 01:18 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | consumption of alcohol is correlated with suppressed immune response. | 01:18 |
| Nsvsonido | https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1241803403619172359?s=20 | 01:18 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | clinically effective concentrations of alcohol are fatal. | 01:18 |
| Sinovac | before infectin g you | 01:19 |
| tinwhiskers | Sinovac: that's crazy. even russians don't drink 100% of the time. It's not going to do anything for the viruses that are already in you | 01:19 |
| Sinovac | It's not going to do anything for the viruses that are already in you | 01:19 |
| tinwhiskers | You said "preventative no, it might mitigate". Don't say that sort of thing here. please. | 01:19 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Nsvsonido: it's true to various degrees. | 01:19 |
| Sinovac | that waht i said | 01:19 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Nsvsonido: a very small minority of people are involved in protests. | 01:20 |
| Sinovac | mitigate? | 01:20 |
| Sinovac | do i need a lawayer to chat in here? | 01:20 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Nsvsonido: a significantly larger minority of people are calling it a hoax. | 01:21 |
| Sinovac | wtf are you all stupid? | 01:21 |
| friedbat | new sympoms added by u.s. cdc: chills, shaking with chills, sore throat, loss of taste, loss of smell | 01:21 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Sinovac: it doesn't mitigate it. it worsens it. | 01:21 |
| LjL | friedbat, "far below?" i don't know, Lombardy is still being sort of linear from what i can see | 01:21 |
| LjL | and the lockdown is as strong as it can get in Italiland | 01:21 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Sinovac: clinically effective concentrations of alcohol are fatal. lesser concentrations simply suppress immune response. | 01:21 |
| Sinovac | before infecting you | 01:22 |
| friedbat | when did lombardy lock down? | 01:22 |
| LjL | friedbat, hard to say exactly... technically, March 8, but the flavor of lockdown changed a few time since | 01:22 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Sinovac: "before infecting you"? | 01:22 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | clinically effective concentrations of alcohol are fatal both before infection by ncov, during, and after. | 01:23 |
| Nsvsonido | all the American people I see interviewed seem to suffer of this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance and they will die because of it | 01:23 |
| Sinovac | NoImNotNineVolt im not even goin there so go chat with trunk on twiter | 01:23 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | similarly, lesser concentrations of alcohol simply suppress immune response, both before, during, and after ncov infection. | 01:23 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Sinovac: i don't know who trunk is nor do i have a twitter account. i was just responding to your statements here. | 01:24 |
| Sinovac | ok if you get covid and die dont say i didnt told you so | 01:24 |
| ytlyv8 | 50 says Sinovac dead first | 01:25 |
| tinwhiskers | Sinovac: again, you're pushing this alcohol thing as if you'd be foolish to ignore this advice. That's not acceptable here. It is not good advice. | 01:25 |
| LjL | Sinovac, ytlyv8: neither of that is funny | 01:25 |
| Sinovac | its funny | 01:26 |
| LjL | okay, fair enough, you can decide for yourself whether it's funny. but i get to decide whether you can say it here, so i'm telling you, don't | 01:27 |
| Sinovac | yes sir | 01:28 |
| Sinovac | at least we got #covid-19 the real covid channel | 01:29 |
| LjL | okay, have fun there then | 01:30 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | so far, that channel is little more than a reddit integration bot and a handful of people spreading misinformation. | 01:30 |
| LjL | mentioning it once was more than enough, using it as a spam keyword every time i tell them not to do something is another matter | 01:31 |
| ytlyv8 | anmd saying that when there gone is a waste of time | 01:32 |
| tinwhiskers | o.O | 01:32 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Sinovac: welcome back. | 01:33 |
| LjL | i clearly cannot type | 01:34 |
| LjL | ytlyv8 also has basically only come here periodically to be annoying but only for brief enough period that they never got banned | 01:35 |
| LjL | ideally they would all make their own channel somewhere with a name that doesn't clash with this one, but things are seldom ideal | 01:35 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | ytlyv8 also left the channel immediately after sharing their observation. | 01:38 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, strange rageComment | 01:38 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | making a statement like that immediately prior to parting the channel might be described as a waste of time. | 01:38 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 01:38 |
| LjL | well, they were also pointing out that it was a waste of time for me to state something about someone i had banned | 01:39 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i thought it was a pretty balanced exercise in moderation. | 01:39 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | then again, it doesn't matter what i think. | 01:39 |
| LjL | but i don't exactly feel that way since there's like 633 users, and probably about as many as 20 people here, who may care about what i say about banned people (or not, but potentially) | 01:39 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | irc channels are small fiefdoms. | 01:39 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | and you have the danish. | 01:39 |
| pyna | DOWN PERISCOPE | 01:41 |
| LjL | i believe... that was a silent torpedo launch? | 01:44 |
| Urchin | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mtLigCACyQ | 01:51 |
| LjL | %title | 02:00 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: YouTube | 02:00 |
| LjL | how useful, Brainstorm | 02:00 |
| LjL | Mars confinement tips by the ESA | 02:00 |
| LjL | don't thank me | 02:00 |
| Urchin | might help someone | 02:01 |
| Nsvsonido | https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1241803403619172359?s=20 | 02:09 |
| tinwhiskers | ✓@C4Dispatches (Channel 4 Dispatches): “If you are irresponsible enough to think that you don’t mind if you get the flu, remember it’s not about you - it’s about everybody else.” Intensive care specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery explains why this coronavirus is different from the ordinary flu. https://t.co/h9sQorHQUv (1 month and 3 days ago) | 02:10 |
| tinwhiskers | I have my bot hat on | 02:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:12 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: Anzac Day dawn services marked in isolation – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 02:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 00:12 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 02:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 00:33 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: California launches meal delivery program for seniors, US death toll tops 50,000 → https://is.gd/voAMk1 | 02:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2109 cases (now 924402), +107 deaths (now 52168) since 2 hours ago — Washington, US: +423 cases (now 13176) since 23 hours ago — Texas, US: +364 cases (now 23170) since 8 hours ago | 02:50 |
| berndj | where are my italian and spanish oracles? what is public transport like there? is it the dominant mode of transport during normal times? | 03:03 |
| berndj | just scanning through https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf and it seems like the home and transport are where infections happen, and everything else is lost in the noise | 03:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:12 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man, 90, in Tasmania dies – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 03:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:45 UTC: (news): California launches meal delivery program for seniors, US coronavirus death toll tops 50,000 → https://is.gd/voAMk1 | 03:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 01:52 UTC: ljl-covid: Add Chemical & Engineering News' COVID-19 portal → https://is.gd/7EVAUm | 03:54 |
| PlanckWalk | There was a Danish(?) study classifying transmission. Most were in homes, followed by workplaces, social gatherings, then transport but a very large proportion just "unknown". | 04:04 |
| PlanckWalk | (This is after removing "imported" cases) | 04:05 |
| PlanckWalk | Note that workplaces included hospitals, though. | 04:06 |
| PlanckWalk | Also IIRC homes included nursing homes. | 04:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:52 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man, 90, in Tasmania dies – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 04:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews at 02:16 UTC: worldnews: Coronavirus - The world needs a Chinese investigation, and it's 'owed it': NZ Deputy PM → https://is.gd/xpQ1YW | 04:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 02:41 UTC: ljl-covid: Add EuroMomo, thought I already had it, but hey → https://is.gd/5bblMW | 04:44 |
| LjL | nixonix, i notice now that the preprint saying 90% of dead doctors they found were male was about, well, doctors. the stuff i've always looked at in italy (while not finding the information you were after, but still, that sort of thing about healthcare workers in Italy) tended to include nurses and other workers. i suspect there's a larger prevalence of women there while there's a prevalence of men among hospital doctors | 04:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 02:45 UTC: Covid2019: Nurses who got coronavirus fear they will get sick again - Chicago Tribune → https://is.gd/TmsSg6 | 04:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 02:56 UTC: ljl-covid: Add studies on antibody production → https://is.gd/a49of3 | 04:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 03:01 UTC: ljl-covid: Remove duplicate article → https://is.gd/wPDNU4 | 05:06 |
| Tramtrist | This seems quite an organized channel | 05:06 |
| LjL | i gets more hectic when it's not yet night in europe | 05:07 |
| LjL | right now it's just me adding links to link lists | 05:07 |
| Tramtrist | This is the first ive seen this offloop.net chart | 05:09 |
| Tramtrist | Pretty good | 05:09 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm not sure if this has been posted before so apologies if it has, but it calls into question the Santa Clara antibody testing results. I'm not casting judgement but I know quite a few people have been talking about those results so it's worth knowing about I guess: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-surveys-suggesting-vast-undercount-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable# | 05:09 |
| tinwhiskers | Tramtrist: why thank you :-) | 05:09 |
| Tramtrist | I wish we could get antibody testing in the midwest | 05:11 |
| Tramtrist | This isnt what I think is true at all .. but i feel the coasts got most of the attention (deservedly) while we in the midwest will be on the tail end of the support | 05:12 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, it can't come soon enough but things are happening at lightening speed really so we just need to eat some more ramen and wait. | 05:12 |
| Tramtrist | Its just a feeling reading all about the coasts.. when there seems to be little happening except everything being shut down | 05:12 |
| Tramtrist | Cali has all these tests.. NYC .. I'm sure it's not true but it just feels that way | 05:13 |
| tinwhiskers | fair | 05:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:05 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man, 90, in Tasmania dies – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 05:13 |
| tinwhiskers | (I really wouldn't know - not in US) | 05:13 |
| Tramtrist | I just moved back | 05:13 |
| Tramtrist | What a time to come back... | 05:13 |
| tinwhiskers | great timing :-) | 05:13 |
| tinwhiskers | where did you come from? | 05:14 |
| Tramtrist | japan | 05:14 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. very nice. It ain't all roses there now either though I guess | 05:14 |
| Tramtrist | i dunno.. | 05:14 |
| Tramtrist | family says nothings different | 05:14 |
| tinwhiskers | you'd prefer to be there still? | 05:14 |
| Tramtrist | no | 05:14 |
| Tramtrist | medical stuff is still scary when its not your native tongue | 05:15 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I hear ya there! | 05:15 |
| Tramtrist | also haircuts | 05:15 |
| tinwhiskers | lol. so true | 05:15 |
| tinwhiskers | I can't speak a word to the hairdresser I go to. I have to mime things. | 05:15 |
| tinwhiskers | But we both find it very funny | 05:15 |
| tinwhiskers | At the hospital all the signs are in a language I don't speak a word of and I have no idea where to even go. | 05:16 |
| Tramtrist | I found the best thing was going to the same person over and over | 05:17 |
| Tramtrist | eventually you just walk in and they start cutting | 05:17 |
| tinwhiskers | I just stand around looking like a stupid palangi until someone takes pity on me and points me in some direction | 05:17 |
| Tramtrist | in silence | 05:17 |
| tinwhiskers | ha ha | 05:17 |
| Tramtrist | i moved twice in japan | 05:17 |
| Tramtrist | it eventually happened | 05:17 |
| Tramtrist | both times | 05:17 |
| tinwhiskers | So you're not in one of the hot spots in the US then at least? | 05:17 |
| Tramtrist | not at all | 05:18 |
| Tramtrist | cinci area | 05:18 |
| Tramtrist | kentucky | 05:18 |
| tinwhiskers | Time is probably the best thing in our favour right now | 05:18 |
| Tramtrist | thing is.. i know at least 4 people who were very sick had all the symptoms but were denied tests | 05:18 |
| Tramtrist | governor has done a good job | 05:18 |
| Tramtrist | but | 05:18 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. yeah. we certainly hear a lot of that. | 05:19 |
| Tramtrist | i cant understand why they had to be 'presumed' | 05:19 |
| Tramtrist | very strange | 05:19 |
| tinwhiskers | how do you mean, presumed? | 05:19 |
| Tramtrist | they officially had this 'assumed' or 'presumed' with covid? | 05:19 |
| Tramtrist | some line they were getting from the medical people | 05:20 |
| Tramtrist | its an unofficial official way of saying sorry we wont test you but you probably have it | 05:20 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. so sent home to quarantine but without a test? | 05:20 |
| Tramtrist | yes | 05:20 |
| Tramtrist | always refused a test | 05:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 03:13 UTC: ljl-covid: Add Cell article about vaccines → https://is.gd/kys27k | 05:20 |
| tinwhiskers | I can only assume it was due to limited supply of test kits | 05:20 |
| tinwhiskers | I doubt there was any malice... It doesn't make sense. What do you think? | 05:21 |
| Tramtrist | yeah i hope so | 05:21 |
| Tramtrist | problem was at the same time or weeks before tigers and celebs were getting tests | 05:21 |
| Tramtrist | it did not help | 05:21 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. right | 05:22 |
| Tramtrist | in the end i think they were given anxiety pills and told to go home | 05:22 |
| Tramtrist | i heard that from multiple people | 05:22 |
| Tramtrist | its my anecdote of the night | 05:22 |
| tinwhiskers | if they had been tested positive they still would have been given that same treatment I guess | 05:22 |
| Tramtrist | right | 05:22 |
| Tramtrist | thats true | 05:22 |
| tinwhiskers | knowing would be nice though, for sure | 05:23 |
| Tramtrist | its the piece of mind knowing its under control that really helps in the end | 05:23 |
| Tramtrist | knowing someone did something other than say .. whatever | 05:23 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 05:23 |
| LjL | "Recruiting through Facebook likely attracted people with COVID-19–like symptoms who wanted to be tested, boosting the apparent positive rate." | 05:26 |
| LjL | this is why random sample needs to mean random sample | 05:26 |
| LjL | not even the NY study was random since people going to supermarkets aren't random | 05:26 |
| LjL | but at least it wasn't clearly biased in favor of people with symptoms | 05:26 |
| LjL | i don't know whether or not to hope the study made in Italy is compulsory for selected people to participate | 05:26 |
| LjL | if it's not compulsory, people with symptoms will self-select | 05:26 |
| LjL | i don't feel great about "we have to take your blood, whether you want it or not", especially when being anywhere near a hospital is a risk at this time | 05:27 |
| LjL | but i don't know if this can be evaluated properly otherwise | 05:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 03:23 UTC: "Tack on" press articles on mortality to the EuroMoMo entry: They aren't really scientific papers or articles but they fit, and it would not make much sense to have them as "news" → https://is.gd/RuREHt | 05:27 |
| stinkpot | shouldn't it be geographically random? or is that not 'random' either? | 05:27 |
| Tramtrist | do any of you feel theres a consensus on when an antibody test will be ready for everyone at any time? | 05:28 |
| Tramtrist | how many months? | 05:28 |
| Tramtrist | or years? | 05:28 |
| tinwhiskers | it should clearly be inside the management unit of interest, but then randomly spread geographically. | 05:29 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm, actually not necessarily randomly spread geographically. | 05:29 |
| Tramtrist | if theres an excess of tests available it doesnt need to be random at all | 05:30 |
| tinwhiskers | It should be sampled randomly, which should give a representative sample of all regions | 05:30 |
| Tramtrist | we have to hit that at some point | 05:30 |
| stinkpot | does that mean throw names into a hat and randomly pull them out? | 05:30 |
| stinkpot | i think there should be some geographical nature to it | 05:30 |
| Tramtrist | didnt iceland use the phonebook? | 05:31 |
| tinwhiskers | stinkpot: yeah, that would be better than drawing people by location | 05:31 |
| Tramtrist | read that somewhere | 05:31 |
| stinkpot | like 'within this 1 square kilometer, we'll randomly select 10% of the population living within this area' | 05:31 |
| tinwhiskers | stinkpot: that's likely to cause a bias | 05:32 |
| stinkpot | that's what i was trying to figure out | 05:32 |
| tinwhiskers | unless the 10% you mention is calculated based on density of that area | 05:32 |
| LjL | stinkpot, tinwhiskers: i'd say the wider the test, the more geographical areas it should cover, while keeping them distinct in results. for my country, i can repeat that the intention is to sample 150000 people all over Italy, which is a rather large sample, and the sampling choice will be determined by ISTAT based on age groups, gender, occupation and geographical location | 05:32 |
| LjL | and this should happen "soon"™ | 05:33 |
| tinwhiskers | asap | 05:33 |
| LjL | or at least they should be announcing soon that they have selected which antibody tests to use | 05:33 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I see | 05:33 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, well it won't have happened before we "re-open" on may 4 for sure | 05:33 |
| tinwhiskers | obviously sampling from the phone book has it's own issues considering how many people aren't in the phone book, and that may be an age-related bias. | 05:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 03:31 UTC: ljl-covid: Add ScienceMag article critical of antibody tests and their possible … → https://is.gd/sWnFks | 05:34 |
| Tramtrist | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/ | 05:35 |
| Tramtrist | ya was the phone book i guess | 05:35 |
| tinwhiskers | truly random samples are tricky to get | 05:36 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, ISTAT is the entity that makes official census in italy, so they probably won't need the phone book necessarily | 05:36 |
| LjL | %wik ISTAT | 05:36 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, from Italian Wikipedia: L'Istituto nazionale di statistica (Istat o ISTAT) è un ente pubblico di ricerca italiano che si occupa dei censimenti generali della popolazione, dei servizi e dell'industria, e dell'agricoltura, di indagini campionarie sulle famiglie e di indagini economiche generali a livello nazionale. → https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istituto_nazionale_di_statistica | 05:36 |
| LjL | %wik :en ISTAT | 05:36 |
| Tramtrist | ya if you've got census data.... theres your best bet | 05:36 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, specify one of the following: Abbott Laboratories — International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading — National Institute of Statistics (Italy) | 05:37 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, if you have a complete list of residents in some database that's perfect but I wonder if they include minors | 05:37 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, ya. census should have minors too. | 05:37 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i think they do, and also census is definitely compulsory, if you get called you must answer or there are fines | 05:37 |
| LjL | %wik :en National Institute of Statistics (Italy) | 05:37 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, from English Wikipedia: The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Italian: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica; Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy. Its activities include the census of population, economic censuses and a number of social, economic and environmental surveys and [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_National_Institute_of_Statistics | 05:37 |
| tinwhiskers | I did get hold of our national census data under NDA one year for a survey we did and of course held on to it afterwards :-/ | 05:38 |
| LjL | naughty | 05:38 |
| tinwhiskers | shhh | 05:38 |
| LjL | anyway i'd pay close attention to the italian results when they come out... maybe it'll be 2021 and everyone else has preceded us, but if i try hard to be less cynical about my country, this should be one of the first really large really random sample antibody study with validated tests | 05:39 |
| tinwhiskers | that was like back in the late 90's I think. If I recall it took two 1.44MB floppies and caused a problem for all our database software to get arandom sample from, which was the problem I was solving. | 05:39 |
| tinwhiskers | the solution was trivial of course | 05:40 |
| LjL | put it on a hard drive instead of two floppies? :P | 05:40 |
| stinkpot | is 150000 a big enough sample size in a country of 60-70 million? | 05:40 |
| tinwhiskers | well, I mean everyone wanted to load the whole thing into memory but no software we had there would load it all. | 05:40 |
| LjL | stinkpot, i would say so | 05:40 |
| stinkpot | i don't see what use it has if it doesn't happen till 2021 | 05:41 |
| tinwhiskers | it was just a case of running through it twice off disk, once to count, generate random numbers, then run through again to spit out those numbered records. | 05:41 |
| LjL | ugh i did not say it won't happen till 2021 | 05:41 |
| stinkpot | ok sorry | 05:42 |
| stinkpot | i never said you said that either | 05:42 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, clearly you needed a better mmap() | 05:42 |
| tinwhiskers | :-) | 05:42 |
| LjL | stinkpot, it was a hyperbole to say that i hope they won't be late as usual | 05:42 |
| LjL | it is almost definitely happening in 2020 | 05:42 |
| LjL | hopefully soon | 05:42 |
| stinkpot | whenever i hear you say 'ugh' i sense deep disappoint | 05:43 |
| stinkpot | disappointment | 05:43 |
| LjL | it's just that sometimes it's so hard to say something without being misinterpreted | 05:43 |
| LjL | i'm sure it's at least 50% my fault | 05:43 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, did you get any earthquake notification btw? some 6-ish in the tonga region | 05:44 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: there was an earthquake a couple of days ago here but I didn't get an alert. It was only about a 5-ish I think though. | 05:48 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, no i mean like in the past hour | 05:48 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh. no. | 05:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:39 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man, 90, in Tasmania dies – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 05:49 |
| stinkpot | tinwhiskers: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us60009c06/executive | 05:49 |
| LjL | closer to Solomon | 05:49 |
| tinwhiskers | PTWC didn't send me anything either | 05:49 |
| LjL | also pretty shallow | 05:50 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, well me neither, but it's barely M6 | 05:50 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 05:50 |
| stinkpot | tonga wouldn't feel much at that distance | 05:50 |
| tinwhiskers | No. didn't feel anything. We felt the one a couple of days ago though. | 05:51 |
| LjL | i just saw "Tonga region", didn't look at map | 05:51 |
| tinwhiskers | k | 05:51 |
| LjL | thought it was easier to ask :P | 05:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network * at 03:47 UTC: ljl-covid: Correct typo → https://is.gd/ptMGhd | 05:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:02 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Japan discovers 60 more cases on Italian cruise ship: Japan has confirmed 60 more coronavirus cases among crew members on an Italian cruise ship currently docked in the western Japanese city of Nagasaki for repairs. → https://is.gd/salfAX | 06:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:24 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 06:31 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Wonder what we can learn from Diamond Princess. 700 corona infected healthy 70-80 year old humans locked up for 17 days and 6 of them died... | 06:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 04:53 UTC: nCoV: UChicago Medicine doctors see 'truly remarkable' success using ventilator alternatives to treat COVID-19 → https://is.gd/BR7TAq | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 05:06 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Japan discovers 60 more cases on Italian cruise ship; India eases some lockdown measures → https://is.gd/salfAX | 07:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:08 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 07:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 05:37 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Japan discovers 60 more cases on Italian cruise ship; India eases some lockdown measures → https://is.gd/salfAX | 07:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:44 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 08:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 06:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test website to reopen for bookings after 'significant demand' → https://is.gd/N1GvNb | 08:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:15 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Japan discovers 60 more cases on Italian cruise ship; India eases some lockdown measures → https://is.gd/salfAX | 08:18 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Italy, a 23 years old girl has still tested positive for covid19 after 60 days and 6 tests. (10310 votes) | https://redd.it/g7ios5 | 08:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:29 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 08:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 06:52 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 09:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:53 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 09:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 07:14 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 09:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 07:24 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test website reopens for bookings after 'significant demand' → https://is.gd/N1GvNb | 09:29 |
| truthr | it takes about 100 miligrams of covid 19 to infect every human on earth | 09:30 |
| mefistofeles | hah, yes, that's a lot of virus | 09:31 |
| truthr | 1 particle for each human i think | 09:31 |
| truthr | or you can start with 1 particle and go from there | 09:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 07:32 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Japan discovers 60 more cases on Italian cruise ship; India eases some lockdown measures → https://is.gd/salfAX | 09:36 |
| aradesh | truthr: surely less than that | 09:38 |
| aradesh | 7.5 billion virus particles surely way less than 100mg | 09:39 |
| aradesh | weigh* | 09:39 |
| tinwhiskers | Arguably you only need one viral particle to infect every human on Earth... For small values of "arguably". | 09:42 |
| aradesh | most viruses have a diameter between 20 and 300nm, so let's go with the overestimation of 1000nm, which is 1 micrometer, or 10^(-4)cm. so each virus has volume bounded above by 10^(-12) cm^3. thus 10 billion of them has volume 0.01cm^3 which, assuming the density of water, would only be 10mg | 09:43 |
| aradesh | tinwhiskers: yes, assuming that the human then infects everyone else | 09:44 |
| aradesh | so i guess 100mg you could give each human at least 10 virus particularl.. probably more like 100 or 1000 due to my over estimations :D | 09:44 |
| aradesh | particles* | 09:44 |
| truthr | aradesh: very possible..what does a typical virus particle weight? | 09:47 |
| truthr | interesting approach you used to reach the mass | 09:48 |
| aradesh | certainly less than 10^(-12)g | 09:48 |
| truthr | same density as water good guess | 09:48 |
| truthr | so in your estimate it would take 10 mg? | 09:48 |
| aradesh | yeah, as an upperbound | 09:48 |
| truthr | wow..damn | 09:49 |
| aradesh | likely less | 09:49 |
| truthr | that is one potent potential weapon of mass destruction | 09:49 |
| aradesh | but as tinwhiskers says, you only technically need a single virus particle! | 09:49 |
| truthr | indeed | 09:49 |
| truthr | just slower a bit | 09:49 |
| aradesh | infect one person with coronavirus, and the body starts producing billions of them | 09:49 |
| truthr | so a highly infected person could have more than 10 mg of covid 19 in their body? | 09:50 |
| aradesh | wikipedia says that vaccina virus, which is a "large virus" weighs 10^(-17) kg, which is 10^(-15)g | 09:51 |
| aradesh | truthr: not sure | 09:51 |
| aradesh | sorry | 09:51 |
| aradesh | 10^(-14)g | 09:51 |
| aradesh | so seems my very rough estimate was in the right ball park | 09:51 |
| mefistofeles | not bad heh | 09:52 |
| truthr | nice work | 09:52 |
| aradesh | covid19 seems to be an established inhabitant of planet earth now | 09:55 |
| aradesh | impressive how something so tiny has caused so much disruption | 09:55 |
| mefistofeles | aradesh: indeed, though we have plenty already, one more is always a good possibility | 10:00 |
| mefistofeles | and expect more to come | 10:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 07:58 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Buona festa della Liberazione. Mentre eravate via → https://is.gd/GhevSK | 10:05 |
| mefistofeles | https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ | 10:10 |
| mefistofeles | one that stanford controversial study | 10:10 |
| mefistofeles | on* | 10:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:04 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 10:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 08:23 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 10:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:50 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 10:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 08:53 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Japan discovers 60 more cases on Italian cruise ship; India eases some lockdown measures → https://is.gd/salfAX | 11:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 09:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test website slots booked up within hour of site reopening → https://is.gd/4LjVjP | 11:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 09:12 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: L'Oms lancia un'alleanza internazionale per il vaccino (Ma senza USA e CINA) → https://is.gd/tEXP3F | 11:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 09:14 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test website slots booked up within hour of site reopening → https://is.gd/4LjVjP | 11:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:16 UTC: Anzac Day: Australia coronavirus update latest: death toll reaches 80 after man dies in Tasmania – live news → https://is.gd/6NmdeZ | 11:30 |
| mefistofeles | %cases Australia | 11:32 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In all areas, Australia, there are 6695 cases (0.0% of the population) and 80 deaths (1.2% of cases) as of 15 minutes ago. 487000 tests were performed (1.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 1.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia for time series data. | 11:32 |
| mefistofeles | nice testing for australia | 11:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Public urged to observe lockdown despite weekend sunshine → https://is.gd/nwLDur | 11:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 09:50 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Mattarella oggi all'Altare della Patria. → https://is.gd/kIp4CK | 11:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:53 UTC: Brazil: Coronavirus live news: Greece prepares to end lockdown as Brazil’s health system nears collapse → https://is.gd/l1n5s2 | 11:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 10:15 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Japan discovers 60 more cases on Italian cruise ship; Brazil becoming virus hot spot → https://is.gd/salfAX | 12:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +5966 cases (now 74588), +66 deaths (now 681) since a day ago — US: +1356 cases (now 925758) since 9 hours ago — Mexico: +1239 cases (now 12872), +152 deaths (now 1221) since a day ago | 12:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 10:20 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 12:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:25 UTC: Brazil: Coronavirus live news: Greece prepares to end lockdown as Brazil’s health system nears collapse → https://is.gd/l1n5s2 | 12:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 10:37 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test online slots booked up within hour of site reopening → https://is.gd/4LjVjP | 12:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 10:41 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 12:48 |
| xrogaan | Masks are highly recommended in Belgium, but not enforced. They are planning to "reopen" to country too. | 12:52 |
| xrogaan | They want to provide each citizen with at least one regulated canvas mask. | 12:53 |
| xrogaan | Employers will have to provide protective equipment to the workers. | 12:54 |
| xrogaan | They're banking on civilian responsibility. If I take my father as an average, it'll fail. | 12:55 |
| friedbat | is kim jong-un in a coma? | 12:57 |
| Nsvsonido | https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/nyc-poison-control-center-records-jump-in-lysol-and-bleach-cases-after-trumps-remarks/ really? | 13:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:52 UTC: Brazil: Coronavirus live news: Greece prepares to end lockdown as Brazil’s health system nears collapse → https://is.gd/l1n5s2 | 13:02 |
| friedbat | it's all fake news, expect a few more "lysol is selling out" or "calls into poison control centers on the rise" | 13:04 |
| friedbat | cause you know, drumpf told people to drink bleach or sammitz | 13:05 |
| friedbat | the guy's been in office for 3 years now, and some people have only one routine: orange man bad | 13:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 11:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test online slots booked up within hour of site reopening → https://is.gd/4LjVjP | 13:09 |
| friedbat | anyone know what's up with belgium? why is their death count so high? | 13:15 |
| friedbat | per capita they're even worse than italy and spain | 13:15 |
| xrogaan | small country | 13:16 |
| xrogaan | also depend on how you count. Belgium is very open and count suspected cases. | 13:16 |
| xrogaan | Other countries not so much. | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:10 UTC: Brazil: Coronavirus live news: Greece prepares to end lockdown as Brazil’s health system nears collapse → https://is.gd/l1n5s2 | 13:16 |
| friedbat | the size issue should be taken into account when we do per capita right? | 13:17 |
| xrogaan | We take into account non-confirmed cases, other countries does not. | 13:18 |
| xrogaan | UK's covid-19 death rate is far higher than what the numbers tells. All you have to do is look at the average mortality per week of the last years and compare it to this year, you'll get a figure thousands above average. | 13:19 |
| friedbat | i'm not taking about cases | 13:20 |
| friedbat | i'm talking about deaths | 13:20 |
| xrogaan | The resolution of a case can be death too. | 13:21 |
| friedbat | i'm not talking about cases | 13:21 |
| friedbat | i'm talking about deaths | 13:21 |
| xrogaan | https://d34j62pglfm3rr.cloudfront.net/downloads/news/Grafiek_oversterfte.png | 13:23 |
| friedbat | i can understand some differentiation between counties on under or over reporting deaths (classifying them as covid or non-covid) | 13:23 |
| friedbat | but that can't explain the huge differences we see | 13:23 |
| friedbat | belgium is at 597 deaths per million. germany at 69 deaths per million | 13:23 |
| xrogaan | and new yorkers are drinking bleach. | 13:24 |
| friedbat | this almost 9 times difference can't be due to reporing | 13:24 |
| friedbat | reporting | 13:24 |
| friedbat | something else is going on | 13:24 |
| friedbat | are belgian hospitals overwhelmed? | 13:24 |
| xrogaan | Small country, disease speading fast. Big country, spread less quickly. | 13:24 |
| friedbat | wikipedia says netherlands has higher population density than belgium | 13:25 |
| friedbat | and netherlands is only at 250 deaths per million | 13:26 |
| friedbat | less than half the belgian rate | 13:26 |
| xrogaan | Does the netherlands has big commercial ports? | 13:26 |
| friedbat | you keep changing the story | 13:26 |
| friedbat | reporting differences -> size -> ports | 13:26 |
| xrogaan | Do you understand how a disease spread? | 13:27 |
| xrogaan | Numbers means nothing if they are not put in context. You come here saying "but look at the numbers", without looking at the geopolitical data. | 13:27 |
| xrogaan | Death per capital is a derivative of whatever numbers gets reported, did you look further than the graphs being show? What did they use to get to the conclusion? | 13:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 11:51 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Immunologia → https://is.gd/S9tddC | 13:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 11:58 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - Atlanta → https://is.gd/4vA0eY | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 12:13 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Intrattenimento → https://is.gd/IZAedk | 14:13 |
| mefistofeles | I think it's a bunch of different things contributing for the belgium case | 14:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 12:16 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 14:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 12:29 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test online slots booked up within hour of site reopening → https://is.gd/4LjVjP | 14:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:37 UTC: Coronavirus: Brazil becoming hot spot; WHO warns on reinfection: "There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected," said the WHO. → https://is.gd/salfAX | 14:42 |
| Tramtrist | How depressing.. We'll all just keep getting re-infected until we're all gone | 14:45 |
| Urchin | %data croatia | 14:48 |
| Brainstorm | Urchin: In all areas, Croatia, there are 2016 cases (0.0% of the population) and 54 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 16 minutes ago. 30213 tests were performed (6.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 5.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data. | 14:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:45 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus UK: test slots run out for second day running – latest updates → https://is.gd/HzkPWF | 14:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns about reinfection, US cases top 900,000 → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 15:03 |
| mefistofeles | :o reinfection from WHO, interesting | 15:04 |
| dTal | um so if it's possible for an infection to just go around and around until everyone's dead, why are we still here | 15:05 |
| dTal | is it because society wasn't so connected, and plagues could burn out locally? | 15:05 |
| mefistofeles | dTal: no, that's not what it means | 15:05 |
| dTal | how so? | 15:06 |
| dTal | If you can get reinfected, and with ADE it gets worse every time, what's the end game? | 15:07 |
| dTal | It evolves to be less deadly? | 15:07 |
| shomalon | survival of the fittest happens until vaccine | 15:07 |
| mefistofeles | dTal: they just say that it's not clear that having antibodies makes you immune, specially when the antibodies count varies so much from these tests, since not everybody who had the virus has the same antibodies count | 15:07 |
| mefistofeles | read the source | 15:08 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19 | 15:08 |
| mefistofeles | so it is in the context of giving these immunity passports, it's not enough to apss the antibodies test to guarantee immunity, basically | 15:08 |
| mefistofeles | *pass | 15:08 |
| dTal | mefistofeles, although my comment was sparked by that, I wasn't commenting on it directly | 15:09 |
| dTal | there doesn't appear to be 100% consensus that infection = immunity | 15:09 |
| ubLIX | how could there be? far too soon for a well defined answer to that question | 15:10 |
| mefistofeles | dTal: yes, more studies are needed | 15:10 |
| mefistofeles | there's a famous one in macaques that showed no possibility of reinfection | 15:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:08 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Belgio → https://is.gd/bFeTER | 15:10 |
| dTal | so, in the scenario where infection != immunity, what happens? | 15:10 |
| shomalon | reinfection | 15:10 |
| mefistofeles | dTal: depends on wht the mechanism actually is that allows reinfection and how the body cleared the virus in the first place | 15:11 |
| mefistofeles | shomalon: no | 15:11 |
| mefistofeles | not necessarily | 15:11 |
| dTal | ...I thought that was definitionally what immunity was? can't be reinfected? | 15:11 |
| mefistofeles | it's subtle, but yeah, if we take that as a definition, then sure, it means reinfections if there are no immunities, by your definition | 15:12 |
| shomalon | But if an individual is exposed to the virus again and has lost the temporary immunity or never had immunity, then the chances of them being reinfected are far higher than if they had immunity | 15:12 |
| mefistofeles | shomalon: true | 15:12 |
| shomalon | Hence reinfection is likely considering the current spread of the virus. This is why mitigation techniques are essential | 15:13 |
| dTal | mefistofeles: sorry, what's the actual definition then? I'm a bit confused | 15:14 |
| mefistofeles | dTal: there are many levels | 15:14 |
| mefistofeles | In biology, immunity is the balanced state of multicellular organisms having adequate biological defenses to fight infection, disease, or other unwanted biological invasion, while having adequate tolerance to avoid allergy, and autoimmune diseases. | 15:14 |
| mefistofeles | from wikipedia | 15:14 |
| mefistofeles | so you can see it involves already many different things | 15:14 |
| dTal | in practical terms, what does it mean to say that someone is not immune, but it's not necessarily true they can get reinfected? | 15:16 |
| dTal | can you give an example? | 15:17 |
| mefistofeles | yes, but again, that's a simiplification | 15:17 |
| Streaker | if you can't get infected you are immune | 15:17 |
| Streaker | by definition | 15:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 13:12 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 15:17 |
| dTal | Streaker: I already said that but mefistofeles says there's more subtlety to it | 15:18 |
| dTal | but I'm having trouble getting him to expand on that | 15:18 |
| mefistofeles | dTal: nevermind, it's not needed to go into details | 15:19 |
| Streaker | if something cannot be explained, then it isn't true | 15:20 |
| mefistofeles | heh | 15:20 |
| shomalon | Streaker yes, but the immunity in this case has an expiration date | 15:20 |
| Streaker | immunity always has an expiration date | 15:20 |
| dTal | Er, okay. So returning to my original question, if infection doesn't confer immunity, then what stops the virus going in circles forever until we're all dead? Particularly if each infection is worse than the last, due to ADE | 15:21 |
| mefistofeles | anyways, immunity is not guaranteed by antibodies, as far as it's known | 15:21 |
| Streaker | Covid-19 is not something special. The vaccines you got as a child will not give you immunity forever. | 15:21 |
| mefistofeles | for this disease | 15:21 |
| Streaker | famously, measles has the ability to "erase" your memory of other viruses, so getting measles means you lose immunity to a bunch of other diseases | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus UK: test slots run out for second day running – latest updates → https://is.gd/HzkPWF | 15:24 |
| mefistofeles | %cases UK | 15:25 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 143464 cases (0.2% of the population) and 19506 deaths (13.6% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 612031 tests were performed (23.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 15:25 |
| mefistofeles | I wonder how the WHO asses these things? do they have experts everywhere working for them and getting paid for validating/studying all these sources of information? | 15:28 |
| mefistofeles | seems like a really complicated thing to manage | 15:28 |
| ubLIX | didn't read WHO on this point. was there anything of substance in their pronouncement other than "please bear in mind 'absence of evidence'"? | 15:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 13:27 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Plea for public to get medical care when they need it → https://is.gd/KoOBgC | 15:31 |
| mefistofeles | ubLIX: no, not really | 15:32 |
| mefistofeles | ubLIX: but once they make these pronunciations commonly means that these rumors and preliminary studies are gaining support and building up evidence | 15:32 |
| mefistofeles | so it's something too look up, if you haven't already | 15:33 |
| ubLIX | hugely naive question, but given gathering suppositions that versions of sars-cov-2 have been widespread everywhere longer than previously thought, is it plausible to conceive of the severe forms of covid-19 appearing since january as an ADE second wave? | 15:43 |
| ubLIX | not an original thought, i assume | 15:44 |
| mefistofeles | ubLIX: what do you mean by versions? like showing difference genome? | 15:48 |
| mefistofeles | *different | 15:48 |
| ubLIX | just extra hand-waving wiggle room to allow for sars2 to be older than thought; flu seasons for the last three years have been unusually bad. but it's rare (isn't it?) to have species of infection assayed during flu illness; rather, it's just "stay home, rest, antibiotics for secondary infection maybe" | 15:52 |
| kreyren | According to wiki covid-19 in severe conditions has a symptom of confusion, any more info on that? | 15:52 |
| kreyren | i.e confusion caused by fever or? | 15:52 |
| kreyren | also apparently coughing up blood.. from what? | 15:53 |
| mefistofeles | ubLIX: for humans? Not likely tbh | 15:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:46 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/h6aBhI | 15:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +3995 cases (now 223759), +378 deaths (now 22902) since a day ago — Saudi Arabia: +1197 cases (now 16299) since a day ago — Iran: +1134 cases (now 89328), +76 deaths (now 5650) since a day ago | 15:54 |
| mefistofeles | ubLIX: I mean, how could you explain not being detected before? | 15:55 |
| ubLIX | yes, highly unlikely, i agree | 15:56 |
| ubLIX | but i suppose the thoughts would be: flu like illness, not very severe, test for known flu viruses comes back negative, oh well it wasn't that severe anyway, no further enquiry made | 15:57 |
| ubLIX | wrt to heightened flu seasons 2017-2019 | 15:58 |
| oriba | LjL: You once asked, why covid-19 mortality is so low in germany. Did you find answers? | 15:59 |
| ubLIX | and assuming earlier versions/mutations/pre-ADE weren't severe enough to warrant unusual intervention (usual being stay home and rest) | 16:00 |
| mefistofeles | ubLIX: ok, yes, but having a big jump all of a sudden and stopping just there is not really something that happens, as far as biology goes | 16:00 |
| ubLIX | yep. anyway, just idle naive speculation | 16:00 |
| mefistofeles | ubLIX: yeah, I get it | 16:01 |
| genera | what is ADE? | 16:01 |
| ubLIX | genera: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement | 16:02 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: you asked LjL , but the common explanation is a set of different factors, the one with more impact is probably extensive testing | 16:02 |
| genera | tnx | 16:02 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: also that it exploded in Germany in rather younger people instead of elderly as in Italy... but also probably because Italy has many many more cases and deaths exploded just when it hit elderly, but it was already spreading in the community for weeks... antibodies tests data are suggesting such scenarios in many countries already | 16:04 |
| Nick01 | Hey guys... | 16:05 |
| Nick01 | Anyone around? | 16:06 |
| mefistofeles | Nick01: sure | 16:06 |
| Nick01 | Where you from? | 16:07 |
| Nick01 | <---- USA | 16:07 |
| Nick01 | Wondering when the gov is going to open back up | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica at 14:00 UTC: Gaming & Culture: Games getting us through COVID-19—blocks, roguelites, whatever Death Stranding is → https://is.gd/iOQXwP | 16:07 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: I have three things: 1) different age profile in infections. 2) good ICU doctors, 3) germany has no efficient good working reporting on the deaths. The last one is the reason why EUROMOMO z-score looks good in germany, and bad in UK. | 16:08 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: only Berlin and Hessen do good reporting - but the most cases are in NRW | 16:08 |
| oriba | (and bavaria also has many cases I think) | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:05 UTC: Farmers turn to homegrown force to bring in the harvest: With Covid-19 keeping eastern Europeans away, furloughed British workers are signing up to fill seasonal vacancies – but will there be enough of them? → https://is.gd/qXjRb4 | 16:14 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: yes, Euromomo only has Berlin and Hesse, that doesn't mean other's are not reporting | 16:15 |
| mefistofeles | they just don't report to Euromomo | 16:15 |
| mefistofeles | but data is there, you can check the RKI bulletins and the dashboard | 16:15 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: yes, the ICU thing also helps, specially comparing to countries where hospitals got filled | 16:16 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: ok, they don't report to euromomo and thats why it looks good there. | 16:17 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: possibly, when the infection goes to higher ages, situation will become worse | 16:17 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: depends, in terms of numbers? sure, but the infection is already passed a peak | 16:18 |
| mefistofeles | unless people become massively careless and don't obey the distancing measures, it should be ok | 16:19 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: and that already happened, that'swhy the case fatality rate steadly increased for days/weeks for Germany, from 0.1 to 2% or so | 16:19 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: if other age will become infected, more deaths will occur | 16:19 |
| mefistofeles | now, what I'm not sure is whether Germany is extensively testing post-mortem | 16:20 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: we will see, what will happen, when the soft lockdown will become even softer - but masks will be used, this may help | 16:20 |
| mefistofeles | and how many deaths outside hospitals it had, but I don't think it would be that significant, since hospitals weren't even filled to being with | 16:20 |
| oriba | a lot of people avoided going to hospital | 16:21 |
| oriba | maybe they die not because of covid, but because they didn't went to hospital with their heart-diseases etc | 16:22 |
| mefistofeles | maybe, but if it were that crucial that would be considered in the baseline | 16:23 |
| mefistofeles | so not really an excess of deaths | 16:23 |
| mefistofeles | I mean, no that high, as seen by other countries | 16:23 |
| mefistofeles | not* | 16:23 |
| mefistofeles | and that's why it's also important to relax distancing lockdown, many people are not getting treated because of these things | 16:24 |
| mefistofeles | I even have a room mate already having some troubles because of it | 16:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 14:24 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Regno Unito → https://is.gd/b5pwKS | 16:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 14:33 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Top 10 Countries in Europe by Coronavirus Deaths (March 15 - April 24) → https://is.gd/ICAGdO | 16:36 |
| LjL | oriba, i was skeptical that extensive testing alone did it, but i may need to revise that position given some recent antibody tests... but anyway, i still think it's a combination of factors: more testing but also many more ICU beds available. also, at first it had a *really* low rate... not it is at least exceeding the 1% that was predicted initially (at least apparently) | 16:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +4913 cases (now 148377), +813 deaths (now 20319) since 23 hours ago — US: +496 cases (now 927026) since 52 minutes ago — Florida, US: +306 cases (now 30839) since 16 hours ago | 16:39 |
| xrogaan | %title https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g7ios5/italy_a_23_years_old_girl_has_still_tested/ | 16:40 |
| Brainstorm | xrogaan, the URL could not be loaded | 16:40 |
| xrogaan | dTal: ^ | 16:40 |
| xrogaan | I don't speak Italian, so I trust the english commentator of that thread. | 16:41 |
| LjL | maybe i should fake my useragent for %title, eh | 16:41 |
| LjL | also i can read italian but i'd say deepl looks like it did a decent job :P | 16:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:37 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns about reinfection, US cases top 900,000 → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 16:43 |
| xrogaan | :) | 16:45 |
| xrogaan | It really annoys me that politics use white lies about the pandemic. | 16:46 |
| LjL | too bad DeepL doesn't seem to do website translations the way google does | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 14:45 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test online slots booked up within hour of site reopening → https://is.gd/4LjVjP | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:45 UTC: World leaders agree to cooperate on coronavirus vaccine, but US does not take part – video: Global leaders have pledged to accelerate cooperation on a Covid-19 vaccine and to share research, treatment and medicines around the globe as part of a World Health Organization initiative. → https://is.gd/t0S5qR | 16:57 |
| LjL | %title https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-trump-treatment-disinfectant-bleach-new-york-a9483786.html | 16:57 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, the URL could not be loaded | 16:57 |
| Spec | why would US lead the world in anything? that's boring | 16:58 |
| LjL | > The city’s Poison Control Centre managed 30 cases from Thursday evening until Friday afternoon, a spokesperson told New York Daily News – more than double the number of cases the centre dealt with over the same period last year. | 16:58 |
| LjL | Spec, yeah it's gotten kind of old | 16:58 |
| mefistofeles | Spec: not only boring but dangerous :P | 16:58 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: San Francisco mayor says city's PPE orders have been diverted, confiscated: It 'blows my mind' (10104 votes) | https://redd.it/g7nbp3 | 17:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 15:03 UTC: /u/slakmehl: No evidence that recovered COVID-19 patients cannot be reinfected: WHO - Reuters → https://is.gd/duc1AM | 17:04 |
| mefistofeles | I don't really know how goverments joining forces means for a vaccine... | 17:05 |
| mefistofeles | s/means/works | 17:05 |
| LjL | well maybe it'll mean the first country that finds a vaccine won't confiscate all the supply for itself | 17:05 |
| mefistofeles | but that's up to the company developing it, isn't it? | 17:06 |
| LjL | like *some* countries were expected to do after *some* allegedly attempted buyouts of *some* companies in other countries | 17:06 |
| LjL | not really, if the government confiscates it... | 17:06 |
| mefistofeles | though maybe it helps in that way that CHina is more advanced, asince most (every?) companies are state owned | 17:06 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: is that common? I don't see that happening in many countries, tbh | 17:08 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, there was one big incidents that i know of, that was it afaik | 17:09 |
| mefistofeles | ok | 17:10 |
| mefistofeles | that may be enough, this one is big | 17:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:05 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NY nursing home sees a burst in Covid-19 infections, US cases top 900,000 → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 17:11 |
| LjL | %cases uk | 17:12 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 148377 cases (0.2% of the population) and 20319 deaths (13.7% of cases) as of 14 minutes ago. 640792 tests were performed (23.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:12 |
| LjL | more cases and more deaths today i think | 17:12 |
| livebrain | so uk seems to be undertesting | 17:13 |
| LjL | "seems" | 17:14 |
| Spec | oh, we're boutta break 1 milly | 17:16 |
| Spec | 100k in 3 days, oh my | 17:16 |
| mefistofeles | livebrain: yes, pretty undertested there | 17:16 |
| livebrain | %data portugal | 17:18 |
| Brainstorm | livebrain: In all areas, Portugal, there are 23392 cases (0.2% of the population) and 880 deaths (3.8% of cases) as of 20 minutes ago. 330512 tests were performed (7.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Portugal for time series data. | 17:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2002 cases (now 929028), +107 deaths (now 52371) since 51 minutes ago — Maryland, US: +1150 cases (now 17766), +77 deaths (now 875) since a day ago — Chile: +552 cases (now 12858) since 23 hours ago | 17:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:17 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump team mulls briefing changes in wake of disinfectant row → https://is.gd/w1kAAn | 17:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:27 UTC: 'Science will come through': Doctor who pioneered HIV treatment discusses potential Covid-19 drugs: Dr. David Ho's lab pioneered treatment approaches to HIV. Now, his focus is Covid-19, or, more specifically, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. → https://is.gd/MY17M7 | 17:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:37 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA → https://is.gd/8U5np1 | 17:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:38 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NY nursing home sees a burst in Covid-19 infections, UK death toll tops 20,000 → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 17:47 |
| Butterfly^ | https://i.imgur.com/aleQqSH.jpg Trump killing people, again | 17:51 |
| intranut | is the covid-19 mutating? | 17:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:53 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: AGGIORNAMENTO 25/04/2020 ORE 17.00 POSITIVI AL nCov Regione ess INCREMENTO Terapia coe pecepuri| casiToTAaLi | CAS! TOTAL! | tamponi | casi TESTATI inten attualmente | GUARITI (rispetto al giomo intensiva a precedente) Lombardia 8.489 724 25.260 34.473 Piemonte 2.937 238 12.327 15.502 93.325 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/iTwu5R | 17:54 |
| LjL | intranut, all the time | 17:54 |
| mefistofeles | Butterfly^: how can people be so stupid? :/ | 17:59 |
| Butterfly^ | Trump became POTUS, i think that alone explains enough | 18:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:56 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: '21 days of hell': NY gov on state's death rate, UK fatalities top 20,000 → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 18:01 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 18:02 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 192994 cases (0.3% of the population) and 25969 deaths (13.5% of cases) as of 14 minutes ago. 1.6 million tests were performed (11.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 18:02 |
| rmonten[m] | <intranut "is the covid-19 mutating?"> Yes, this website gives a cool overview of detected mutations: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global | 18:02 |
| LjL | so WHY NO UPDATE | 18:02 |
| LjL | geeee | 18:02 |
| l0ndoner | o/..... | 18:02 |
| sternenmusik[m] | I dont feel well. | 18:05 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <sternenmusik[m] "I dont feel well. "> Again. This attacks come and go. | 18:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 16:04 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Statistica → https://is.gd/bkvJAb | 18:08 |
| Raf[m] | > > <@freenode_intranut:matrix.org> is the covid-19 mutating? | 18:10 |
| Raf[m] | > Yes, this website gives a cool overview of detected mutations: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global | 18:10 |
| Raf[m] | 3604 genomes. Does this imply there are 3604 mutations at least? | 18:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +2357 cases (now 195351), +415 deaths (now 26384) since 23 hours ago — US: +813 cases (now 929841), +472 deaths (now 52843) since 53 minutes ago — New York, US: +437 deaths (now 21728) since 5 hours ago | 18:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:05 UTC: Coronavirus live news: ‘No evidence’ you can’t get Covid-19 twice, says WHO: Greece prepares to end lockdown; Bill Gates vows to fund vaccine production; Australia and New Zealand mark Anzac Day from driveways → https://is.gd/l1n5s2 | 18:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 16:28 UTC: Aggiornamento 25/04: submitted by /u/maikk_ to r/CoronaVirus_ITALIA → https://is.gd/ZTqs5h | 18:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +2861 cases (now 107773), +106 deaths (now 2706) since a day ago — US: +385 cases (now 930226) since 34 minutes ago — Minnesota, US: +261 cases (now 3446) since a day ago | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: '21 days of hell': NY gov on state's death rate, UK fatalities top 20,000 → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 18:37 |
| l0ndoner | LjL: does Italy count nursing home deaths in the figures? | 18:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:32 UTC: Coronavirus UK: no date for ending lockdown, says Priti Patel – video: Priti Patel has said removing coronavirus restrictions in the UK will not be a binary choice and the government would not give a date for the end of lockdown. The home secretary added that five tests will have to be met before schools can reopen [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xnSv3N | 18:44 |
| LjL | l0ndoner, mostly no | 18:45 |
| LjL | l0ndoner, only if they were tested, which is, in most cases, no | 18:45 |
| LjL | it does include deaths at home, though, again if they were tested (which is... in some cases), unlike the UK | 18:46 |
| l0ndoner | happy liberation day my friend | 18:47 |
| LjL | oh, right | 18:48 |
| LjL | i think yesterday's Corriere came with a free italian flag | 18:49 |
| livebrain | %data new york | 18:49 |
| Brainstorm | livebrain: In New York, US, there are 277445 cases (1.4% of the population) and 21728 deaths (7.8% of cases) as of 15 minutes ago. 730656 tests were performed (38.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=New%20York for time series data. | 18:49 |
| LjL | uhm | 18:49 |
| LjL | if that's 1.4% of the population | 18:49 |
| LjL | but in reality they found that 14% or so had antibodies | 18:49 |
| LjL | then it means the IFR is 0.78% instead of 7.8% | 18:50 |
| LjL | i mean, i know these kinds of considerations have already been made, but i hadn't looked at the numbers recently | 18:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 16:51 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Immunologia → https://is.gd/iOWc25 | 18:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:55 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NY Gov. Cuomo on '21 days of hell,' UK fatalities top 20,000 → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 18:59 |
| nixonix | oriba: if you know euromomo better, howcome austria has significantly less deaths than average? maybe the last week has missing data, but also the previous week | 19:06 |
| LjL | try not to use the reply feature in too much layers on Matrix please... it just gets impossible to read on IRC | 19:07 |
| Raf[m] | My bad | 19:07 |
| rmonten[m] | sry | 19:07 |
| LjL | it's okay, just saying | 19:08 |
| oriba | nixonix: I don't know details about austria. I just have heard the information that germany does not report properly to Euromomo, which may be the reason that germany looks good there. Only two federal states of germany report regularly and quick to Euromomo, and those two have comparingly less problems. So those fed. states with high numbers are not shown there. Not sure if this will be | 19:11 |
| oriba | corrected later, or if there are corrections somehow. Euromomo should show more details on the reporting, I think. | 19:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:07 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Beaches reopen around the US, NY Gov. Cuomo says state has seen '21 days of hell' → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 19:13 |
| rmonten[m] | Does anyone know how reliable the latest couple of weeks reported by euromomo are? Week 16 shows a decline in mortality, but is this likely to be corrected later? | 19:16 |
| nixonix | oriba: is the german mortality data available anywhere? (exp berlin and hesse, that euromomo has) especially the very recent, from april | 19:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +11252 cases (now 941478), +78 deaths (now 52948) since 46 minutes ago — New York, US: +9800 cases (now 287245) since an hour ago — Brazil: +1181 cases (now 55224), +58 deaths (now 3762) since 7 hours ago | 19:20 |
| oriba | nixonix: I don't know | 19:21 |
| oriba | nixonix: maybe RKI-dashboard? | 19:21 |
| LjL | rmonten[m], probably not very reliable, i'm not sure if they still show this on their new site layout but they had a "delay-corrected mortality" line or some other similar term before, and i didn't quite understand what that was, but it was clearly *some* kind of extrapolation from missing data | 19:21 |
| oriba | nixonix: from time to time they add some new stuff here: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4 | 19:22 |
| rmonten[m] | I see, thanks | 19:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 17:35 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Tecnologia → https://is.gd/4TTKl7 | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3771 cases (now 945249), +295 deaths (now 53243) since 19 minutes ago — New Jersey, US: +3327 cases (now 105523), +246 deaths (now 5863) since 22 hours ago — Louisiana, US: +372 cases (now 26512) since 16 hours ago | 19:35 |
| ketas | !risk 115 | 19:38 |
| ketas | oh no | 19:38 |
| CovBot | The risk model only handles ages between 0 and 110. | 19:38 |
| ketas | !risk 110 | 19:38 |
| ketas | oh indeed | 19:38 |
| CovBot | I estimate a 110 year old patient sick with COVID-19 has a 42.2% chance of survival, a 61.8% likelihood of needing to go to hospital, a 24.7% risk of needing intensive care there and a 57.8% chance of death. | 19:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:39 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Beaches reopen around the US, NY to expand testing after '21 days of hell' → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 19:42 |
| Atque | !risk 450 | 19:45 |
| CovBot | The risk model only handles ages between 0 and 110. | 19:45 |
| Atque | Damn | 19:45 |
| l0ndoner | A bit off track I've been asked to download zoom .deb is it a security risk and feeding data to china? | 19:53 |
| Butterfly^ | https://twitter.com/rickygervais/status/706465063599808512?lang=en tweet from 2016 !!! | 19:56 |
| genera | yes | 19:59 |
| AimHere | I'm under the impression that it's a security risk because random dweebs will jump in your Zoom calls and spam you with Nazi Hentai or worse | 20:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:00 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Germania - Berlino → https://is.gd/YVLrix | 20:04 |
| tinwhiskers | I thought zoom immediately added an option to address that particular concern | 20:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:03 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 20:11 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: If you look for another idea for your graphs: what about cases per density of population?! | 20:23 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: the population option is there if you tick "by population" but I don't have any population density data. | 20:24 |
| tinwhiskers | That would be kinda interesting though | 20:24 |
| oriba | yes, interesting... thats why I mention it. I had no time to start my own analysis. Just downloading data atm. | 20:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:23 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/o7WDBM | 20:25 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: https://rcolyer.net/covid19/ | 20:29 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: if you get a decent density dataset together point me at it and I'll add it in | 20:29 |
| mefistofeles | maybe you find it useful | 20:29 |
| tinwhiskers | Ah | 20:29 |
| mefistofeles | I mean, it just get the population and divides | 20:30 |
| mefistofeles | population data from 2018, it seems | 20:30 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: we have it by population already. oriba is referring to population density as opposed to population | 20:31 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: ah! sorry, misread | 20:31 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: Wikipedia? Wikidata? | 20:33 |
| oriba | for the datasets | 20:33 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: nice graphs, but not vs. pop. density | 20:34 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, the population data came from Wikipedia so happy to have density data from the same. | 20:34 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: so, you will add it? | 20:35 |
| tinwhiskers | It may not be the most accurate but it only needs to be about right, and to be fair Wikipedia was still very good compared to most | 20:35 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: I'll do a quick test in dev where I replace popn with density and we can take a look at that and see if it merits its own option | 20:36 |
| oriba | nice | 20:37 |
| tinwhiskers | My brain is struggling with some minor details... We report the population figures per 100,000 population... What would that be when using density? | 20:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:37 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 20:40 |
| friedbat | how do you mean density? | 20:40 |
| friedbat | population/area ? | 20:41 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: We regret to inform you that your inflatable T. rex costume is not virus-proof (10044 votes) | https://redd.it/g7tche | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | cases per 100,000 popn per km² | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | Hrm | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: yeah | 20:42 |
| friedbat | i don't think that makes sense | 20:42 |
| tinwhiskers | No | 20:42 |
| friedbat | but you might want to plot deaths vs pop/area | 20:42 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: that's the same thing | 20:43 |
| tinwhiskers | (except deaths instead of cases) | 20:43 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, sorry. I see | 20:43 |
| tinwhiskers | So oriba, we just need land area since we already have population | 20:44 |
| tinwhiskers | I... May already have that | 20:44 |
| sternenmusik[m] | There is something terrible wrong about disease x. | 20:46 |
| friedbat | if you have deaths per 100k, call it dpk. and you want death/(pop/area) you would do dpk*(area/100000) | 20:46 |
| tinwhiskers | Ok. Thanks friedbat | 20:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 18:38 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global death toll passes 200,000: Greece prepares to end lockdown; Bill Gates vows to fund vaccine production; Australia and New Zealand mark Anzac Day from driveways → https://is.gd/l1n5s2 | 20:47 |
| friedbat | but i don't think deaths/(pop/area) tells you anything | 20:47 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <friedbat "but i don't think deaths/(pop/ar"> What? | 20:48 |
| tinwhiskers | No, but cases by density would be interesting | 20:49 |
| sternenmusik[m] | You are political motivated human bots. | 20:49 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Ignoring the truth. | 20:49 |
| friedbat | yes, i agree, i would plot deaths per capita (y axis) versus density (x-axis) | 20:49 |
| tinwhiskers | Ah.... Yes | 20:49 |
| friedbat | i would expect a positively sloped line of best fit | 20:49 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: hold on a sec | 20:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Peru: +3683 cases (now 25331), +66 deaths (now 700) since 23 hours ago — France: +1660 cases (now 161488), +369 deaths (now 22614) since a day ago — Canada: +652 cases (now 45016), +106 deaths (now 2456) since an hour ago | 20:51 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Hello? You completely ignore what is actually happening and keep on doing your statistics? | 20:51 |
| tinwhiskers | sternenmusik[m]: what are we ignoring? | 20:52 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Thanks for listening. | 20:53 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh you wanted some attention. Sorry. | 20:53 |
| sternenmusik[m] | No. | 20:53 |
| tinwhiskers | What are you doing here sternenmusik[m] instead of solving the problem? It's like you're just ignoring it. | 20:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:50 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 20:54 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: if I would have some more experience with sparql, I would lookup datasets on Wikidata. But it's a while ago that I played with it, and never was that deep into it. It should be easy to get the data there (if not otherwise scraping wikipedia-pages). | 20:56 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: I'm not exactly sure what you want from these plots. | 20:56 |
| tinwhiskers | I was imagining a scaling factor like with population, but not sure that's sensible. | 20:57 |
| friedbat | what is the risk model doing with age? | 20:57 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: just an idea. if it's too much work, ignore it ;-) But higher population density means people are closer together... | 20:57 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: yeah | 20:58 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Doesnt make any difference. | 20:59 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: someone who seems to believe the covid-thing is rather a fake, asked: why only industrial ("first world" countries have high infections and death rates, and poorer countries not. My idea: higher pop. density might be a reason (plus. so called lifestyle diseases). | 20:59 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: when I get out of bed I'll have a look on a computer and try to think about it better | 20:59 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Check how many old peoples homes are infected and you get closer to the truth. | 21:00 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: ah, you want to go to bed now? | 21:00 |
| friedbat | but keep in mind density has a weird dimension. so you could have a town with population 1200 and a density of 3 people/km^2 and a city of 1,000,000 also with population 3 people/km^2 and you would expect different *levels* of cases or deaths in each | 21:00 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: don't go to any effort in the meantime though | 21:00 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: no I've just woken up | 21:00 |
| friedbat | therefore you're have to plot density vs. things like cases/100k and deaths/100k or so | 21:01 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: ah, ok. | 21:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:55 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Francia → https://is.gd/6moMCq | 21:01 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: yeah. Cheers | 21:03 |
| friedbat | i said population up there for the city and meant density | 21:04 |
| oriba | pop. density, just three countries: germany: 233 people per (km)^2, Japan: 335.8, Kenia: 82. | 21:04 |
| storge | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/24/usda-let-poultry-plants-move-faster-crowd-lines-covid-coronavirus-spread-meat-packing-workers/3013615001/ | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brazil: +2158 cases (now 57382), +156 deaths (now 3918) since an hour ago — US: +564 cases (now 946397), +189 deaths (now 53455) since 18 minutes ago — Michigan, US: +562 cases (now 37203), +189 deaths (now 3274) since a day ago | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 19:03 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: OMS → https://is.gd/nNneBn | 21:09 |
| LjL | i wanted to do something with population density in Brainstorm but honestly i don't know what | 21:11 |
| LjL | aside from just it mentioning it | 21:11 |
| LjL | in charts, it may work, for correlations or whatnot | 21:11 |
| LjL | but other than that not sure what i could use it for | 21:11 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah so for comparing totals between countries on two axes as friedbat describes I agree. But as a drop in scaling factor like population over time series data like I was originally thinking, my brain is struggling to process right now. | 21:14 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, no i'm not sure that makes sense, but "comparing totals between countries on two axes" is basically a correlation chart, so yeah that one does make sense to me | 21:15 |
| LjL | although you could do it with a number of other things too | 21:15 |
| LjL | temperature | 21:15 |
| LjL | i know we don't really believe in temperature affecting this | 21:15 |
| LjL | but one could do it | 21:15 |
| tinwhiskers | Still if you just applied those example density numbers oriba just gave as a scaling factor it might *look* interesting | 21:16 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah | 21:16 |
| friedbat | the one issue i see with correlation graphs comparing countries (per capita deaths vs. density, for example) is that countries might be at different stages of the virus curve | 21:16 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: yeah, there's less of an issue when looking at time series data | 21:18 |
| friedbat | so you'd have to account for that. maybe by taking the numbers at a certain time (say 30 days since they hit 1 death per million) | 21:18 |
| friedbat | or something | 21:18 |
| tinwhiskers | If you're just comparing totals that's certainly a problem | 21:18 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: I have the pop density by countrie | 21:19 |
| mefistofeles | country* | 21:19 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: the graphs already have the option to align based on some arbitrary case count | 21:19 |
| mefistofeles | in a CSV file | 21:19 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: oh. Well... Sweet | 21:19 |
| mefistofeles | would that work? | 21:19 |
| friedbat | tinwhiskers: but case count won't help | 21:20 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, worth chucking it in and seeing what happens. | 21:20 |
| friedbat | that's the correlation you're after anyways | 21:20 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: I'm talking about time series data though, not correlations | 21:20 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm also very confused though | 21:20 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: giving you the link in private msg | 21:21 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: thanks | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:20 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 21:23 |
| friedbat | so i'm reading about re-infection from WHO (though it's the WHO so who knows if it's bullshit or not) | 21:23 |
| friedbat | but then i'm also reading studies done on monkeys showing re-infection doesn't occur | 21:23 |
| friedbat | here's a recent "no re-infection" paper https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1 | 21:24 |
| tinwhiskers | the WHO announcement is some sort of half-truth that is horribly confusing for people | 21:25 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, tinwhiskers already has the population density by country, actually | 21:26 |
| tinwhiskers | Of course some people are getting protection for some period of time | 21:26 |
| LjL | not sure if he realizes but he does :P | 21:26 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yep. I just got that | 21:26 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: ah well, xD | 21:26 |
| friedbat | tinwhiskers: what is up with the who's incompetence? | 21:27 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm not sure it's incompetence. It's the natural outcome from a large committee | 21:28 |
| user____ | friedbat: that rabbit hole again ? | 21:28 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, the macaques study is a famouse one, never made it to peer reviewed journal though, I think | 21:29 |
| friedbat | the peer review process takes time | 21:29 |
| friedbat | that's why people are reading preprints | 21:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 19:25 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Vaccino → https://is.gd/hbJ2N4 | 21:30 |
| friedbat | it has to be submitted to a journal, an editor has to assign it to reviewers, the reviewers must read, analyze and comment, the comments sent back to authors, the authors respond to comments in 2nd submission, those get reviewed again, etc etc | 21:31 |
| friedbat | by then, covid is over | 21:31 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, it varies I know | 21:31 |
| Arsanerit | I was invited to peer review a covid-19 related paper (about reduced air pollution in China measured with satellites) | 21:31 |
| friedbat | so "it's not made it to peer review" can be said about most things | 21:31 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: I'm very familiar with that | 21:31 |
| Arsanerit | friedbat: no, it doesn't need to be over by then | 21:32 |
| friedbat | just like "the therapeutic hasn't been part of a clinical trial" | 21:32 |
| mefistofeles | but there are many papers being published really fast now, for covid-19 | 21:32 |
| Arsanerit | friedbat: for the paper I was invited to review, I had 5 days to complete the review, then the authors have 2 weeks to submit their revision, then the reviewers have 3 days for the next round of review | 21:32 |
| mefistofeles | and that one has there weeks now, maybe more than a month | 21:32 |
| mefistofeles | iirc | 21:32 |
| mefistofeles | oh yeah march 14 | 21:32 |
| LjL | friedbat, well, with therapeutics, i'd really be careful, because the way it's turning out, many that "seemed" useful aren't proving useful in actual clinical trial, or are even being shown to be harmful | 21:32 |
| Arsanerit | friedbat: peer review can be done in a month or less for a fast journal | 21:32 |
| LjL | placebo effect can be strong, and stronger when doctors are experiencing it and turning it into bias | 21:32 |
| friedbat | LjL: i agree, we do need to be careful | 21:32 |
| Arsanerit | with only 2 weeks to review it means there won't be the chance to redo the experiments, so in that case the paper would be rejected | 21:33 |
| mefistofeles | I remember the first one with CryoEM structure for RBD and receptor... was really a draft, but made it to Science in a week | 21:33 |
| friedbat | i am just saying, if you're only going to accept peer-reviewed papers, you're not going to get much information for a while | 21:33 |
| LjL | agreed | 21:33 |
| Arsanerit | yes, the situation necessitates decisions based on unsure information | 21:33 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: sure, nobody is saying that, though | 21:33 |
| LjL | but there are crap preprints i guess, they should each be judged on merits | 21:33 |
| Arsanerit | and there is a risk of major decisions made on incorrect information | 21:33 |
| friedbat | yes, peer review adds another "seal of approval" and we're going to have to do without that. so the SNR is higher. | 21:34 |
| Arsanerit | I'm still confused about Sweden. | 21:34 |
| friedbat | but that's life | 21:34 |
| friedbat | covid-19 isn't a patient virus | 21:34 |
| friedbat | it won't wait | 21:34 |
| friedbat | for us to peer review everything | 21:34 |
| mefistofeles | but anyways, what give the best reasonable doubt for reinfection is the fact that not all recovered people are not developing antibodies | 21:34 |
| mefistofeles | so of course, raising questions about actual immunity is reasonable | 21:34 |
| friedbat | in 2 years, after all the trials are done and we have tons of data and expirements, we can publish the most beautiful and wonderful peer reviewed articles in JAMA or Nature or whatever. | 21:35 |
| mefistofeles | s/not developing/developing | 21:35 |
| friedbat | yes, i heard that too. that not all recovered patients have high titers of antibodies. | 21:36 |
| Arsanerit | If Sweden can indeed manage without overwhelming its healthcare system does that mean other countries should act more like Sweden (lesser impact on society)? | 21:36 |
| friedbat | Arsanerit: a good argument can be made that yes. | 21:36 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: some of them don't have at all, according to one study from Shanghai | 21:36 |
| mefistofeles | (preprint :P) | 21:36 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: i am not too keen on studies out of china | 21:36 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: well, those are the most commonly cited for this | 21:37 |
| friedbat | i'm aware. but they don't have a free scientific community | 21:37 |
| Arsanerit | But why is Stockholm so different from Bergamo, New York City, or Guayaquil? Why isn't it seeing mass graves? | 21:37 |
| mefistofeles | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/08/covid-19-antibody-update-for-april-8 for example that one | 21:37 |
| friedbat | people who say the wrong things get disappeared, and ccp censors review all studies | 21:37 |
| mefistofeles | and we all know that guy Derek does a really good job reviewing literature | 21:37 |
| friedbat | so that's even worse than pre-prints | 21:38 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, i'm more worried/scared about the virus never really *going away*, but that might just be me being biased by my own fears... | 21:38 |
| user____ | friedbat: you have some references for that? | 21:38 |
| LjL | and yet, there are a few signs | 21:38 |
| user____ | that aren't Radio Free Asia | 21:38 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: I see, I'm actually expecting we'll have to live with this for life | 21:38 |
| Arsanerit | yearly corona shot? | 21:38 |
| mefistofeles | actually since that first TWIV podcast I linked months ago | 21:38 |
| mefistofeles | where they agreed on that suspicion | 21:38 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, and that doesn't freak you out? luck you | 21:39 |
| LjL | lucky | 21:39 |
| storge | LjL: i believe your fears are sober and grounded. like mefistofeles i think it's just become an endemic part of life. | 21:39 |
| Arsanerit | be happy it's not airborne HIV | 21:39 |
| mefistofeles | lol | 21:39 |
| friedbat | if coronavirus doesn't go away, there might be enough money/interest for a universal vaccine | 21:39 |
| Arsanerit | what if HIV, SARS-cov-2 and Ebola cross? | 21:39 |
| LjL | well, endemic like what, endemic like herpes, except that instead of periodically getting cold sore, we'll periodically get life-threatening pneumonias? | 21:40 |
| LjL | because that would be... not ideal | 21:40 |
| storge | friedbat: if a vaccine is even possible | 21:40 |
| friedbat | yes, that's true | 21:40 |
| mefistofeles | depends, and if a treatment doesn't come first, and many factors | 21:40 |
| storge | LjL: like the seasonal cold constantly rolling around, but it has a certain level of lethality. | 21:40 |
| Arsanerit | I hope it's easier to develop a covid vaccine than a HIV/AIDS vaccine | 21:40 |
| mefistofeles | Arsanerit: it should be | 21:41 |
| friedbat | it's an easier virus than hiv, no? | 21:41 |
| storge | "easier"? | 21:41 |
| friedbat | in that it's a more simple entry into cells | 21:41 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, friedbat: anyway i added studies/links to my list without reading them carefully enough yesterday, but, as we were discussing them, there were at least two studies on antibodies linked... one is the chinese one but there was another one indicating higher rates of immunity. i hope i've linked the right one, they are in the "immunology and vaccines" section of the thing | 21:41 |
| Arsanerit | mefistofeles: apparently, although I have zero expertise to understand why | 21:41 |
| mefistofeles | since commony when virus have these "violent" symptoms the vaccine targets are easier to get | 21:41 |
| storge | mefistofeles: can you elaborate on that? | 21:42 |
| friedbat | LjL: is the link https://covid19.specops.network ? | 21:42 |
| Arsanerit | I imagine it may take a bit more than someone on IRC to elaborate on that. Such as 5 years of medicine studies. | 21:43 |
| Arsanerit | if not 8 years | 21:43 |
| mefistofeles | storge: not really, just something I read | 21:43 |
| mefistofeles | but one reason is that they have S proteins | 21:43 |
| mefistofeles | I guess | 21:43 |
| friedbat | well, all viruses have proteins | 21:44 |
| friedbat | the point is the S-protein is not mutating in a significant way and is very similar to SARS1 and is also thought to be (though this is not changing) the only method of cell entry | 21:44 |
| friedbat | now changing* | 21:44 |
| LjL | friedbat, yeah | 21:45 |
| friedbat | by that i mean, some studies are theorizing that S-spike to ACE2 is not the only way it can infect | 21:45 |
| friedbat | which is scary shit | 21:45 |
| LjL | friedbat, oh damn i did a stupid | 21:45 |
| LjL | linked the same study twice -.- | 21:45 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: I'm back from supermarket. You have interesting results?! | 21:45 |
| LjL | friedbat, also the study in question is ALSO chinese anyway, but still, this one https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32221519 | 21:46 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: well, of course all virus have proteins, but, still viral *spike* proteins for all? | 21:46 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: the pop.dens-data would be interesting for me too... | 21:47 |
| mefistofeles | ah right | 21:47 |
| mefistofeles | yes, let me put that here | 21:48 |
| user____ | Hemaglutein spikes | 21:48 |
| mefistofeles | https://bpaste.net/TEVQ | 21:48 |
| friedbat | LjL: i'm quite skeptical of chinese sources and also of the notion that one can recover without antibody titers. maybe "recovery" in these very small-sample chinese studies are false negatives on tests. or bad sero-conversion testing. | 21:48 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: pop density in pp/km² | 21:48 |
| mefistofeles | pop* | 21:48 |
| LjL | friedbat, you may be right, honestly i know too little about the immune system's working to have a valid opinion | 21:49 |
| friedbat | that one study is 173 patients. in a country of 1+ billion with who knows how many hundreds of thousands of cases, that's the best they can do? | 21:49 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: person/km² (what is pp? pperson?) | 21:49 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: typo for "pop" | 21:49 |
| oriba | ok | 21:49 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: but yeah, habitants/km² | 21:49 |
| friedbat | LjL: i'm not saying it can't be true...just that i'm not ready to give it much weight yet. i think we need some other countries to find similar. | 21:50 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: nice, have the data ... where did you get it from? | 21:50 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: world bank | 21:50 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: shortly :-) | 21:50 |
| LjL | friedbat, well, 173 may be too little compared of what they could be doing, but then, apparently other countries haven't done any preprints on this at all, so :P | 21:50 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: nice. scraped? Or just downloaded? | 21:51 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: downloaded and filtered with python | 21:51 |
| friedbat | LjL: yeah, other countries aren't far enough along to do much with recovered patients yet. though i imagine soon. | 21:51 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: nice :-) | 21:51 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: ok, forget wikipedia ;-) | 21:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:48 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 21:51 |
| friedbat | LjL: i hope it's not true. that would suck. | 21:52 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: I cross-checked some with wikipedia, just to check I wasn't messing it up... it fits | 21:52 |
| oriba | mefistofeles: ok. :-) But it just goes into my archive... for later use... then I will check it. Thanks anyway. | 21:52 |
| mefistofeles | oriba: I may do some tool to download this automatically from world bank... maybe | 21:53 |
| mefistofeles | I mean, this and other type of data | 21:53 |
| mefistofeles | they have a pretty decent API, it seems | 21:53 |
| oriba | good to know | 21:53 |
| friedbat | Oh this might interest some of you and other like LjL more specifically. some folks in italy are finding covid-19 genetic traces in air pollution particles. | 21:55 |
| friedbat | and they theorize covid-19 could spread over large distances via this air pollution | 21:56 |
| stinkpot | wow | 21:56 |
| stinkpot | this is something i didn't consider | 21:56 |
| stinkpot | hitching a ride on an air pollutant... | 21:56 |
| friedbat | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20065995v2 | 21:57 |
| oriba | virologists say, if the virus dries out, it is no longer able to infect people. So, if it travells with dust, it will be dried out... | 21:57 |
| stinkpot | well the lipid bilayer can take a few days to destruct via 'drying out' | 21:57 |
| oriba | but add uv-light | 21:58 |
| stinkpot | destruct => disintegrate | 21:58 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: interesting | 22:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 19:59 UTC: (news): Coronavirus test online slots booked up within hour of site reopening → https://is.gd/4LjVjP | 22:06 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: well, I've done it but it's utterly meaningless at this point :-) | 22:06 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: heh, well, negative results are results | 22:09 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: ah ok. Good to know :-) Thanks for your effort! | 22:10 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: now we know more ... a little bid ;-) | 22:11 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: well, all is not lost... pm? | 22:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica at 20:00 UTC: Cars: What does COVID-19 mean for car design? We ask Jaguar’s Julian Thomson → https://is.gd/qCzGVg | 22:13 |
| oriba | Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252 | 22:14 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: pm, if you wish | 22:15 |
| mefistofeles | oh sad... they are seeing more perforated appendices from fear of going to hospitals | 22:18 |
| l0ndoner | hospital is the last place I would want to be right now | 22:18 |
| l0ndoner | 60% more chance of catching cov-19 than staying and dieing at home | 22:18 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: well, if you take a look as it stands using 1/density as a scaling factor for the time series data it's just very uninteresting. http://offloop.net/covid19/dev.pl (turn on "by population" - the labels have not been changed so make no sense). If you can think of a way of making the density a useful scaling factor maybe it's useful. | 22:18 |
| mefistofeles | l0ndoner: yes, but covid is not that fatal, staying at home with an appendicitis is | 22:19 |
| mefistofeles | or a stroke or whatever | 22:19 |
| stinkpot | mefistofeles++ | 22:19 |
| l0ndoner | pfffft the NHS told us all to stay away.... Now moaning that we did | 22:20 |
| l0ndoner | go figure | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6598 cases (now 952995), +290 deaths (now 53745) since an hour ago — Massachusetts, US: +2379 cases (now 53348), +174 deaths (now 2730) since 21 hours ago — Illinois, US: +2119 cases (now 41777), +79 deaths (now 1874) since a day ago | 22:21 |
| mefistofeles | ah, nice, steroids help apparently... and keep people out of ventilators | 22:22 |
| l0ndoner | chewing on raw ginger helps | 22:22 |
| tinwhiskers | l0ndoner: ?? | 22:23 |
| tinwhiskers | let's just be clear that there is ZERO evidence for that | 22:23 |
| l0ndoner | that stuff clears the airways like no ones business | 22:23 |
| tinwhiskers | opening up your sinuses is not clearing your lungs | 22:24 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: I don't know what you mean ... the rank of countries does change. So it has influence. Maybe start with a smaller selection of countries might make sense? Or grouping countries by pop.dens.? Maybe cluster analysis would be fitting better? hmhh not sure | 22:24 |
| l0ndoner | had a slight tickly cough... Chewed some ginger boom it went | 22:24 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: Yeah, well I'll leave it there for you to explore and if you see if you can find any meaning in it | 22:25 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: or let me know if you need a change made | 22:25 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: I removed the two with moset cases before plaing around. | 22:25 |
| tinwhiskers | l0ndoner: don't get me wrong. I actually eat ginger to aid reflux and I'm moderately confident it helps so I'm not entirely scoffing at herbal remedies but... ginger for covid.... that's misinformation. | 22:26 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: reload the url (dev.pl) then remove USA then remove Spain. then click on "by population". Canada jumps to 1st place! | 22:28 |
| l0ndoner | tinwhiskers: on a serious point.... More people seem to be congregating here now... I.E roads are busier and people don't seem to be social distancing as much as before I.E earlier in month and yet the stats and the R seem to be tailing offeBut the stats are declining | 22:28 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: would need more investigation if that makes sense. But if it would, his would mean canada performs bad regarding pop.density. | 22:29 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: or my scaling is backwards? | 22:29 |
| tinwhiskers | or something else :-) | 22:29 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: don't know. | 22:29 |
| oriba | hehe | 22:29 |
| oriba | something else is a good answer :-) | 22:30 |
| oriba | something has happened - we know it for sure | 22:30 |
| oriba | it was the one reason or the other | 22:30 |
| oriba | or something else | 22:30 |
| oriba | we know that for sure! | 22:30 |
| l0ndoner | I think Swedens model was right and everyone over reacted | 22:31 |
| tinwhiskers | oriba: well, I've copied it to http://offloop.net/covid19/density.pl (before it gets overwritten with some other change) and it'll stay there for the foreseeable future. If you have any ideas let me know :-) | 22:31 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: or maybe it just looks unusual and we expect to see the usual. Maybe so it's better than we think? | 22:31 |
| tinwhiskers | need to sit down and do some numbers in a spreadsheet to see what makes sense. | 22:32 |
| oriba | tinwhiskers: ok. I should start my own investigation. But I have invested much too much time into the pandemy topic, that other things start to drag behind. | 22:32 |
| tinwhiskers | heh. ok. Cheers | 22:33 |
| oriba | need to go learn things... should leave irc for now, otherwise I'm distracted too much... | 22:34 |
| oriba | so until next time. | 22:34 |
| tinwhiskers | o/ | 22:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:24 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: 'What you're doing is saving lives': Cuomo calls quarantining this generation's challenge → https://is.gd/w1kAAn | 22:34 |
| mefistofeles | ah interesting, there are some negative pressure ventilators, old and deprecated, but apparently the new modern ones with positive pressure are actually producing more inflammation... but the old ones are technically harder to use | 22:39 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: yeah, I heard mention that the old iron lung was a better approach here | 22:40 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: yes, indeed... but it gives less access so it depends | 22:41 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: some places are using vents less frequently. preferring to use o2 masks rather than invasive vents which seem to be causing both alveolar damage and increased inflammation | 22:41 |
| tinwhiskers | mmm | 22:41 |
| mefistofeles | I wonder how many people could've been saved by not putting them in ventilators too soon, which is a honest mistake of course | 22:41 |
| friedbat | some places did that on purpose | 22:41 |
| friedbat | they thought early intubation helped increase survival chances | 22:41 |
| tinwhiskers | oops | 22:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 20:38 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 22:42 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yeah, but that's honest mistake | 22:42 |
| mefistofeles | thinking it would benefit the patients | 22:42 |
| tinwhiskers | we're sure going to learn a lot from this anyway | 22:42 |
| tinwhiskers | I hope we retain some of the learnings | 22:42 |
| mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: save ##covid-19 logs!! | 22:43 |
| mefistofeles | xD | 22:43 |
| mefistofeles | in magnetic tape | 22:43 |
| tinwhiskers | obviously some are specific to this virus and may not be very useful but there's a whole lot of general stuff too | 22:43 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: lol | 22:43 |
| friedbat | a lot of things were done in a reactive manner. nationwide shutdowns when people were suggesting 3-5% overall fatality rates, vents when the pulmonary distress might be secondary, etc. | 22:44 |
| friedbat | now we know the fatality rate is closer to 0.5% than to 5% | 22:44 |
| LjL | i was wondering a bit about that earlier | 22:45 |
| friedbat | and we also know that vents aren't necessarily the best approach | 22:45 |
| LjL | we do see to have early evidence from these antibody studies that the death rate is not SO high | 22:45 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm hesitant to agree to the 0.5 but it's not far off | 22:45 |
| LjL | however when i hear about high-profile cases, and by that i don't mean "rich people" but like, "patient one" in italy | 22:45 |
| LjL | his father died of COVID | 22:45 |
| LjL | and he definitely nearly died | 22:46 |
| friedbat | LjL: yeah, the numbers suggest an order of magnitude difference from what experts believed in february | 22:46 |
| LjL | there seem to be entire families that don't just get infected as you would expect from living together. they all DIE | 22:46 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 22:46 |
| LjL | it's anecdotal but i find it hard to reconcile | 22:46 |
| friedbat | LjL: that might be a genetic issue | 22:46 |
| dinkoarun | <l0ndoner "I think Swedens model was right "> Exactly. There is no escaping this virus. All we are doing is trying to slow it down at the expense of the economy. Better to face it head on and then move on. | 22:46 |
| friedbat | they might all be obese, or asthmatic, or all type A blood, or all live in a highly pollutated area, etc. | 22:46 |
| friedbat | some traits are familial and others are geographic. a family unit checks both those boxes. | 22:47 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, my bet is on 0.4 | 22:47 |
| LjL | well if simply being one of these things makes you very likely to die, then the death rate would not be 0.5% | 22:47 |
| tinwhiskers | or just got unlucky due to chance when dealing with vast numbers | 22:47 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: i wouldn't be surprised by 0.4%. i expect it's probably 3-8 times more deadly than flu which is about 0.1% | 22:48 |
| friedbat | so i would expect something in 0.3% to 0.8% range | 22:48 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: indeed | 22:48 |
| LjL | i don't know, i'd like to see data on the families of patients who died | 22:48 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: seems fair | 22:48 |
| LjL | but that's most likely not publicly available for reasons some of of which are obvious | 22:48 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles / tinwhiskers, so far all the antibody studies (except that crazy stanford one) put it in the 0.4% vicinity (give or take) | 22:49 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: exactly, yes | 22:49 |
| LjL | i added one other article yesterday | 22:49 |
| LjL | you will find it opinionated | 22:49 |
| mefistofeles | I find opinionated that you add things without asking | 22:50 |
| mefistofeles | :P | 22:50 |
| LjL | if i linked right to *at least* this one | 22:50 |
| tinwhiskers | yes, but the antibody tests are a little suspect at this stage (notwithstanding the crazy ones) | 22:50 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, ? | 22:50 |
| LjL | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-surveys-suggesting-vast-undercount-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable | 22:50 |
| tinwhiskers | friedbat: but, yeah, your range stacks up to me | 22:50 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, this article details its finding them suspect | 22:51 |
| LjL | fwiw | 22:51 |
| l0ndoner | So we screwed the worlds economy for a death rate that is far less than the FLU | 22:51 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: just joking, though I don't really know how things get added there, if it's just your personal opinion what counts ir if there's anything else | 22:51 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah, that's referring to the Santa Cruz and NY studies, which are to be ignored | 22:52 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, NY is that bad? | 22:52 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: but yes, that's the reason I'm hesitant | 22:52 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, pretty much my personal opinion tbh, and also whether or not i remember to add something when i see it and still find it later, and i often ask yuriwho | 22:52 |
| mefistofeles | ok | 22:53 |
| friedbat | i wasn't aware the ny study was being heavily doubted | 22:53 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: not *as* bad. We've got a few studies from other countries that tend to put it squarely below 1% anyway | 22:53 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: NY? where? | 22:54 |
| friedbat | the stanford one seems like a bunch of bad things put together. possibly junky tests, selection bias, and then some weird agenda of one of the lead researchers | 22:54 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: tinwhiskers said the ny serology study was bad | 22:54 |
| nixonix | and that new york antibody survey on top of those | 22:54 |
| mefistofeles | l0ndoner[m]: no, it's larger than that of the FLU, even possibly 10x larger | 22:55 |
| friedbat | also, the issue with the lockdowns wasn't just because of a higher mortality rate but because of the high infectioneness. the worry was that suddenly you'd have way more very sick people than hospital beds. | 22:55 |
| mefistofeles | I have not seen results from that NY test, though | 22:56 |
| friedbat | too many sick all at once, in other words | 22:56 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: i think they found overall like 13% seroprevalence | 22:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 20:54 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: A domani → https://is.gd/J81ZJj | 22:56 |
| friedbat | but i might be mis-remembering. | 22:56 |
| tinwhiskers | Erm, I meant Santa Clara | 22:57 |
| friedbat | oh yeah, santa clara looks like crap | 22:57 |
| friedbat | that's the stanford folks | 22:57 |
| mefistofeles | ah yeah, thee Stanford/Santa Clara one is really half-baked to say the least | 22:57 |
| mefistofeles | *the | 22:57 |
| mefistofeles | I linked this earlier, but just in case https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ | 22:58 |
| tinwhiskers | that one was hilarious | 22:58 |
| friedbat | i think one thing we have proven (once again) is that we're really bad with the unknown. we get into fear mode and make poor decisions. | 22:59 |
| friedbat | we being humans. | 22:59 |
| friedbat | and even people like epidemiologists, who spend their entire lives using logic and reason, end up making fear-based policy calls. | 23:00 |
| tinwhiskers | indeed | 23:00 |
| tinwhiskers | that's why I dislike the blame politics so much. mistakes don't need to be punished. | 23:00 |
| tinwhiskers | you can still poke fun at the really silly things that happen though | 23:01 |
| friedbat | i agree. honest mistakes should be learned from not punished. intentional negligence should be held to account though. | 23:01 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 23:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 20:58 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 23:03 |
| CovBot | I now have regional case data on the UK again thanks to changes contributed by Rob Hallam. Plus this now includes not just England but Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland! | 23:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:11 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global death toll passes 200,000: Greece prepares to end lockdown; Bill Gates vows to fund vaccine production; Australia and New Zealand mark Anzac Day from driveways → https://is.gd/l1n5s2 | 23:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:26 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths cross 200,000, US beaches reopen, NY expands testing → https://is.gd/fxCyay | 23:32 |
| Atque | Hey. Can everyone pray, so God intervenes and stops the COVID-19 pandemic? | 23:33 |
| mefistofeles | Atque: heh | 23:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:46 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: 'What you're doing is saving lives': Cuomo calls quarantining this generation's challenge → https://is.gd/w1kAAn | 23:53 |
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