LjL | ubLXI, that video may be of interest | 00:01 |
---|---|---|
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Coronavirus homeschooling: 77 percent of parents agree teachers should be paid more after teaching own kids (10029 votes) | https://redd.it/gbldq9 | 00:01 |
ubLXI | *clicking in progress* | 00:01 |
LjL | it'll mostly say things you know i guess, but still i have nothing to criticize about it, which for a 10 minute video is something | 00:02 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 22:00 UTC: Trump's tendency to deny his past statements has become more glaring during coronavirus: Trump walked back two statements about the U.S. response to coronavirus — one on testing and one on the use of disinfectants as treatment — in the past week alone. → https://is.gd/R5LKas | 00:07 |
pyna | there's an ice cream truck driving around my neighborhood | 00:17 |
Birosso | Nice. | 00:17 |
Birosso | I don't get any ice cream trucks here. :/ | 00:17 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2668 cases (now 1126432), +141 deaths (now 65598) since an hour ago — California, US: +1250 cases (now 51775), +59 deaths (now 2111) since 2 hours ago — Pennsylvania, US: +745 cases (now 49642) since an hour ago | 00:21 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:05 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Kim Jong-un reportedly appears in public: North Korean leader had not been seen for three weeks; Ireland and India both extend lockdowns, while global markets fall due to threat of US-China trade war → https://is.gd/FqesId | 00:21 |
pyna | just as well, the ice cream trucks around here sell disgusting "ice cream" | 00:22 |
pyna | even the popsicles are awful | 00:22 |
Birosso | Oh. :/ | 00:22 |
pyna | one thing im mildly optimistic about is that i've cut my amazon ordering by a whole lot | 00:27 |
bin_bash | you have? | 00:27 |
pyna | they're so slow now, that smaller sellers have a chance, and they're doing well | 00:27 |
pyna | before covid, i could get so much from amazon in under 24 hours, reliably and frictionlessly | 00:28 |
Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica at 22:20 UTC: Science: NIH cuts coronavirus funding amid Trump comments and conspiracy theories → https://is.gd/441t5F | 00:28 |
pyna | so why would i order direct, where i usually pay shipping, sometimes have to pay with a credit card, maybe don't ship as fast | 00:29 |
pyna | except for feeling bad that im supporting an increasingly monopolistic borg | 00:30 |
pyna | i can't believe im dumb enough to keep paying for Prime | 00:31 |
pyna | well, i can, but boy am i dumb | 00:32 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 22:28 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Nate Silver su Twitter: "US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly-reported deaths Today: 1,793 Yesterday: 2,041 One week ago (4/24): 1,866 Newly-reported cases T: 35K Y: 28K 4/24: 35K Newly-reported tests T: 321K* Y: 205K 4/24: 232K Positive test rate T: 11% Y: 14% 4/24: 15% * New record" → https://is.gd/dMhHW8 | 00:36 |
ubLXI | where are you from, pyna? | 00:36 |
pyna | im in philadelphia usa | 00:37 |
ubLXI | oh. well. this is UK centric, but has a buncha thoughts on avoiding amazon if that's your mojo | 00:39 |
ubLXI | %title https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/apr/27/how-to-avoid-amazon-the-definitive-guide-to-online-shopping-without-the-retail-titan | 00:39 |
Brainstorm | ubLXI: From www.theguardian.com: How to avoid Amazon: the definitive guide to online shopping – without the retail titan | Technology | The Guardian | 00:39 |
pyna | it was depressingly disconcerting at first | 00:39 |
ubLXI | haven't read it myself tbh | 00:39 |
pyna | but for instance i am now pro enough to order a drum machine from a geographically nearby mail-order-friendly music shop yesterday, so it's coming tomorrow | 00:41 |
pyna | according to amazon they can get me one right away in a couple of weeks | 00:43 |
pyna | i was using them instead of going to the hardware store, the grocery store, clothes shopping, it was all getting subsumed into the borg | 00:44 |
pyna | one thing i'll say ubLXI is when i started thinking about it in terms of avoiding amazon i expected there to be a bunch of good resources like that and i didn't find much that wasn't just "generated content" | 00:47 |
LjL | ubLXI, i share a sense of uneasiness with amazon in the long run, but looking at the article, although i understand it's mostly focused on the current situation | 00:47 |
LjL | "You can often cut out the middleman if you are buying electronics. For computers, phones and TVs, Dell, Apple and Samsung are all offering free delivery on their products" | 00:48 |
LjL | "Currys PC World is taking orders and has a sale on some of the equipment that you might be looking for at the moment, including printers, wifi extenders and coffee machines." | 00:48 |
LjL | yes... all true things | 00:48 |
LjL | however, there's an important thing i know | 00:48 |
ubLXI | a lot of places fulfil orders using amazon? | 00:48 |
pyna | sad thing about US is how we just can't have any discussion about problems of unregulated capitalism without being a communist | 00:48 |
LjL | if i buy something from Amazon and it doesn't work, my worst problem will be making the Amazon rep stop profusely apologizing to me and reassuring them that i'll be happy with a replacement, and also will give them a good rating | 00:48 |
LjL | if i buy something from, say, Apple, they will arbitrarily decide that even though i'm in the EU, i only have one year of warranty | 00:49 |
LjL | and if i buy from (the local equivalent of) Curry's PC World, they'll often laugh at the concept of me having a warranty with THEM | 00:49 |
rager | Amazon rep? | 00:49 |
rager | they just hand out refunds until you're detected as "abusive" by the AI | 00:49 |
pyna | nation of merchants | 00:49 |
LjL | rager, not here, not automatically, i call them | 00:50 |
rager | with local shops, it really depends | 00:50 |
rager | I just sent back 3 hdd's | 00:50 |
rager | they're just in the foil bags | 00:50 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:45 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus UK: over 70% of critical care patients are men → https://is.gd/kgAcaU | 00:50 |
LjL | rager, ah well, actually refunds, yeah | 00:50 |
LjL | but that indeed... if you just ask for a refund when things are *not working* | 00:50 |
rager | one of them popped | 00:50 |
LjL | then eventually you'll see yourself banned | 00:50 |
rager | I just dropped the bags off at the UPS store | 00:50 |
rager | and the refund landed as soon as UPS scanned the code I handed them | 00:50 |
LjL | much better idea to make an actual warranty claim on the phone IMO | 00:50 |
pyna | amazon prime used to have a 2 day guarantee, now it's just a 2 day assertion | 00:50 |
rager | I got the refund because the item was not as described | 00:51 |
LjL | pyna, they make no such assertion anymore here, there is a somewhat length statement on every product talking about delays | 00:51 |
rager | because I bought one disk from that page a few years ago | 00:51 |
rager | and then bought 3 more and got an SMR disk unusable | 00:51 |
pyna | they stopped giving a shit about on-time meaning anything | 00:51 |
pyna | they used to give you a 5 dollar credit | 00:51 |
LjL | at this time that wouldn't even seem something i'd expect tbh | 00:52 |
pyna | well, in general i wouldn't either unless i was led to expect it, with language like "guarantee" and compacts like "paying for this guarantee" | 00:53 |
LjL | %tr Tempi di consegna più lunghi: poiché ci concentriamo sulla salute e la sicurezza dei nostri dipendenti, alcuni tempi di consegna potrebbero essere più lunghi del normale. Le date di consegna stimate tengono conto di possibili ritardi. | 00:53 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: Longer delivery times: Since we focus on the health and safety of our employees, some delivery times may be longer than normal. Estimated delivery dates take into account possible delays. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 00:53 |
pyna | to be fair, the language has shifted, the price has gone up, but furtively | 00:53 |
LjL | this particular (random) "Prime" product i click on to show the above notice | 00:53 |
LjL | it says i can get it by May 24 | 00:53 |
LjL | which sounds like it comes from elsewhere in the EU, which was perfectly normal and typically didn't change shipping times (beyond maybe making it 2-day instead of 1-day prime), but now it kinda does | 00:54 |
pyna | as they worry about competition less, they're not as concerned about it | 00:54 |
LjL | heh yes | 00:54 |
pyna | or, put another way, they recognize SAIT that once 'Prime' is a brand, the meaning can be handled by marketing and no longer has to have any basis in reality | 00:57 |
ubLXI | no basis in reality other than 'extract the value from the brand' | 00:59 |
pyna | and they're right, since amazon is unrecognizably broken for about 2 months so far, and i haven't stopped paying them a subscription fee for the privelege yet | 00:59 |
pyna | i've been continiung to pay the cleaners i hired years ago for the last two months as if they are actually coming and cleaning | 01:01 |
pyna | but im certainly not paying amazon out of a sense of civic duty | 01:02 |
Brainstorm | New from The Lancet at 00:00 UTC: [Obituary] Gita Ramjee: HIV researcher who specialised in HIV prevention for women. Born on April 8, 1956, in Kampala, Uganda, she died of complications from COVID-19 on March 31, 2020, outside Durban, South Africa, aged 63 years. → https://is.gd/YmvPLj | 01:04 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2607 cases (now 1129039), +113 deaths (now 65711) since 51 minutes ago — Texas, US: +649 cases (now 29893) since 51 minutes ago — Nebraska, US: +557 cases (now 4838) since 23 hours ago | 01:08 |
pyna | huh apparently it took "15 minutes" between when the new US press secretary promised never to lie, in the first formal press briefing in over a year, and when she told her first lie | 01:21 |
LjL | pyna, technically i think if you think about it, you'll find it took 0 minutes | 01:22 |
pyna | first of all, i want to know exact minutes and seconds cause it was fucking hilarious she said it, second, that's orders of magnitude longer than i expected | 01:22 |
pyna | LjL: technically correct, which is the best kind of correct. | 01:24 |
friedbat | isn't politics shuffled off to -vox? | 01:24 |
pyna | lol | 01:25 |
LjL | :) | 01:26 |
LjL | friedbat, not really, you're getting confused with the other place! | 01:26 |
LjL | and also sometimes with these place when other ops than myself are looking | 01:26 |
LjL | but for me, politics is okay as long as it's not politics i definitely disagree with, you see | 01:27 |
bildramer | so what did she say | 01:27 |
friedbat | she was fine | 01:28 |
pyna | oh, you are arguing that there we're no lies? | 01:28 |
bildramer | no I'm asking because I'm not going to bother looking up the video | 01:29 |
friedbat | pyna: maybe you can help us understand by pointing out some of the lies. | 01:29 |
pyna | yeah, but maybe you can help me by pointing out how you know "she was fine" | 01:30 |
friedbat | well, it was you who accused her of lying. usually that requires one to back up the accusation. | 01:30 |
ubLXI | maybe y'all can help this poor immortal scroll by civilly arguing in good faith | 01:31 |
bildramer | hasn't been the case for years now | 01:31 |
bildramer | unless it's biden | 01:31 |
bildramer | oh this is very civil. no bombs are flying | 01:32 |
pyna | we're in a state of quantum superposition where she had both told a lie and not told a lie, if you believe the copenhagen interpretation | 01:34 |
pyna | this is what the random article asserting "15 minutes" used as their evidence: “I think it was a grave miscarriage of justice with what happened with Justice Brett Kavanaugh. There’s no need for me to bring up the salacious, awful, and verifiably false allegations that were made against Justice Kavanaugh,” | 01:37 |
LjL | well technically that means she thought there was no need and yet she did it anyway, not that she lied about doing it | 01:39 |
LjL | but you probably mean something else! | 01:39 |
pyna | the assertion being that verifiably false fulfils a common sense definition of "lie" | 01:39 |
ubLXI | ah | 01:39 |
friedbat | there were some verifiably false accusations against kavanaugh | 01:39 |
pyna | saying that trump not being removed from office by impeachment means that the allegations against him were verifiably false would also be a lie | 01:40 |
friedbat | Ms. Judy Munro-Leighton admitted to investigators her accusation was false. | 01:40 |
pyna | the same kind of lie too | 01:41 |
friedbat | this is common knowledge | 01:41 |
LjL | now i will go play a game and completely ignore what happens in this channel for the next couple of hours, including potentially any ops with a different view on politics than i have | 01:41 |
LjL | just saying | 01:41 |
bildramer | "lie" is usually about intent to mislead | 01:43 |
friedbat | I would like to say, if there is an op who would like a certain topic to stop being discussed, please let us know rather than banning us or quieting us. | 01:43 |
pyna | in these times, what you consider a lie is between you and your own personal reality. | 01:43 |
bildramer | I suppose "the [...] verifiably false allegations" implies that all of them were verifiably false, which is wrong, and she knows this, so it's a lie | 01:45 |
bildramer | they are just false, not verifiably | 01:45 |
pyna | but if you believe there's even a chance that you can read the transcript of the whole press conference and not identify a single instance of something you would personally consider a lie | 01:46 |
bildramer | but given "haha omg she lied within the first 15 minutes" I expected a bit more of a juicier gotcha. I'm sure there are more if you extend to 30 minutes | 01:47 |
friedbat | there were verifiably false allegations made. this is not a lie. | 01:47 |
pyna | the omg i was expressing is that it took that long, according to anyone | 01:48 |
friedbat | like i said, you can google Munro-Leighton | 01:48 |
pyna | there must've been a lot of filler | 01:48 |
ubLXI | pyna: 'verifiably false fulfils a common sense definition of "lie"' - in your original quote, it is not a lie so long as there were several allegations, at least two of which were verifiably false | 01:48 |
friedbat | saying there were verifiably false allegations doesn't mean that all allegations by all people were verifiably false. | 01:48 |
pyna | this is why i would never try to argue that that quote is the first lie, that's between you and your pastor | 01:49 |
ubLXI | ...which is not to say she did not law in spirit of intention to mislead | 01:49 |
ubLXI | s/law/lie/ | 01:49 |
pyna | until i read the transcript, i am not inclined to defend or disagree with the assertion, on the grounds that i may find one i like more, earlier. | 01:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2623 cases (now 3401484), +54 deaths (now 239489) since 52 minutes ago — US: +1812 cases (now 1130851) since 52 minutes ago — New York, US: +904 cases (now 315222) since 52 minutes ago | 01:54 |
friedbat | wow, brazil 509 deaths today | 01:55 |
friedbat | this suggests to me that their case totals are severely under-reported (limited testing) | 01:55 |
friedbat | poor folks. they have these overcrowded favelas in rio with very poor living conditions. seems like the kind of place where covid can spread like wildfire | 01:58 |
pyna | actually, the overcrowded favelas are purple monkey dishwasher | 02:01 |
ketas | finally way to get rid of favelas? :) | 02:01 |
ketas | sadly it would also spread out | 02:02 |
ubLXI | pyna: wut | 02:03 |
ubLXI | ketas: wtf | 02:03 |
pyna | i don't have to defend my assertion, because it is in response to a first assertion | 02:03 |
friedbat | pyna: you don't believe overcrowded favelas exist in rio? | 02:04 |
pyna | so until the original assertion is dealt with, i can say whatever i want. by the rules of friedbatdebate | 02:05 |
ketas | asseetion failed | 02:05 |
pyna | i didn't say that, but you sure need to back up your original statement to the satisfaction of me and pastor, before we can even begin to discuss the legitimacy of purple monkey dishwasher | 02:07 |
mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, Brazil is barely testing | 02:08 |
friedbat | mefistofeles: that's my hunch too, their numbers must be sky high for a daily death toll of 500 | 02:08 |
pyna | and let's just say me and my pastor aren't sure. after all, we've never been to Brazil, and my pastor is one of my two cats | 02:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:04 UTC: Coronavirus Australia live news: two more staff members at Newmarch House test positive – latest updates: PM says federal lockdown rules will be reviewed in a week as some states ease restrictions slightly. Total of 6,767 Covid-19 cases recorded in Australia after 14 new cases on Friday: 1,022 are still active. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/o8js33 | 02:08 |
mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, they are seeing the curve now | 02:09 |
mefistofeles | next latin american countries will follow, maybe mexico | 02:09 |
mefistofeles | %cases mexico | 02:09 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In all areas, Mexico, there are 19224 total cases (0.0% of the population) and 1859 deaths (9.7% of cases) as of 5 minutes ago. 81912 tests were performed (23.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 3.2% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 14.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Mexico for time series data. | 02:09 |
mefistofeles | %cases Brazil | 02:10 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In all areas, Brazil, there are 92109 total cases (0.0% of the population) and 6410 deaths (7.0% of cases) as of 6 minutes ago. 339552 tests were performed (27.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 14.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil for time series data. | 02:10 |
LjL | these are pretty high positive rates | 02:11 |
mefistofeles | yes, heavy undertesting | 02:12 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, make me a correlation chart of tests that turn out positives, and either positives per capita, or deaths per capita (but in the latter case they need to be adjusted by average days after testing) | 02:12 |
mefistofeles | the better is to use the same trick as the visualization I always refer to :) | 02:13 |
mefistofeles | so new test vs total test | 02:13 |
mefistofeles | we can also link new tests vs other variables, new cases or new deaths I guess | 02:14 |
LjL | well that tells me something about whether things seem to be improving | 02:14 |
LjL | but i'm aiming more somewhere in the vague vicinity of "how many are the true positive" | 02:14 |
friedbat | for the true positive i generally infer from death rates | 02:14 |
LjL | also i meant this across countries, not just one country | 02:15 |
Julius5 | Hello | 02:15 |
friedbat | sure, mortality varies by country (hospital quality differences, icu quantity, etc) | 02:15 |
friedbat | but not *that* much | 02:15 |
LjL | friedbat, well that would be nice and dandy (except for the dead) if it weren't that we have no idea what the real IFR is | 02:15 |
friedbat | we're getting an idea that it's in some 0.5% - 1% range | 02:15 |
LjL | which is kinda what many of us are concerned with knowing, and sometimes hotly debating! | 02:15 |
Julius5 | The interent traffic is logged by intelligence agencies? What a surprise, I'm shocked | 02:16 |
friedbat | so using that, we can get a range for infections | 02:16 |
LjL | friedbat, except now there are sometimes claims of 0.3% or even down to 0.1% based on some antibody test or other | 02:16 |
LjL | Julius5, and hello to you | 02:16 |
friedbat | those 0.1% studies are faulty | 02:16 |
Julius5 | I bet it's below 0.1% | 02:16 |
LjL | friedbat, i can agree that those studies seem faulty but i don't think i can agree with your general feeling of certainty about this parameter | 02:17 |
friedbat | i would be surprised if it weren't in 0.4% - 1.2% range | 02:17 |
LjL | friedbat, even if that were the case, that's not a small range | 02:17 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: so you want (confirmed / totalTests) / population? | 02:18 |
Julius5 | Even Italy "confessed" 94% (or 96%, can't remember exactly) of their early Covid-19 deaths weren't actually BY Covid-19 | 02:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, no | 02:18 |
ketas | seem like this is not really the cinematic killer virus | 02:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, confirmed/totalTests on the x, and confirmed/population on the y | 02:18 |
ketas | :/ | 02:18 |
tinwhiskers | oh | 02:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, for all countries and all times ever | 02:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i want to find out if there seems to be a somewhat reliable correlation between how many people test positive among the ones tested, and the number of positive people that a country reports in general | 02:19 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 02:19 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but i wasn't serious about wanting you to do this, i can do it in a spreadsheet too if i find it so important :P | 02:19 |
tinwhiskers | ok... spreadsheet sounds good :-) | 02:19 |
Julius5 | ketas, in Germany the average life expectency measured from 2016 to 2019 was 80.64 years. The average age of people who are claimed to have died from Covid-19 in Germany is about 82 years | 02:19 |
tinwhiskers | if you think it's useful I can add it though | 02:20 |
Julius5 | LjL, the relationship you are looking for is called linearity. 3 times more tests, 3 times more positive tests (which isn't the number of infections, even though the media always calles it that) | 02:22 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, no, i think it's useful to check if it leads me anywhere, but i don't think it's useful as something for people just to look up in general (not unless the former results in something interesting anyway) | 02:23 |
friedbat | ok, just a back of envelope. today they had 509 deaths. assuming a 0.5% ifr gives me about 1.6 million current infections | 02:23 |
ketas | Julius5: unsure how to take those averages? | 02:23 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 02:23 |
LjL | Julius5, no, what i'm looking for is called correlation. it may turn out to be linear, or it may turn out to be another function | 02:23 |
ketas | Julius5: with grain of salt, calmly? | 02:24 |
LjL | or it may turn out to be junk | 02:24 |
ketas | :) | 02:24 |
LjL | <Julius5> Even Italy "confessed" 94% (or 96%, can't remember exactly) of their early Covid-19 deaths weren't actually BY Covid-19 ← evidence please. i'm italian, first time i hear of this. | 02:24 |
ketas | hello cousin luigi | 02:25 |
Julius5 | ketas, it means, statistically speaking there are only a few possibilities: Either you live longer with Covid-19 in Germany, or they measured the wrong kind of people (e.g. a lot of people who actually didn't die from Covid-19) or the average life expectency in Germany increased a bit since 2016-2019 and Covid-19 isn't that dangerous. I would say the last sounds most plausible | 02:25 |
ketas | certainly overflowing icu was new thing | 02:26 |
ketas | otherwise, hmm | 02:27 |
Julius5 | LjL, why would you expect to NOT get 3 times more positive tests when you test 3 times as many people? Makes no sense to me | 02:27 |
LjL | Julius5, i said nothing as to what i do or do not expect | 02:28 |
covidman | bombshell : https://x0.at/_TV.jpeg | 02:28 |
Julius5 | ketas, on average, they are pretty empty. It's more like a logistic problem, being to stupid to move patients somewhere else (where it's not overflowing) | 02:28 |
covidman | wow! | 02:28 |
covidman | its all true ! | 02:28 |
Julius5 | LjL, I never said you said, I asked | 02:28 |
ketas | Julius5: here was news here... 1500 people died in one month, 15 from covid | 02:29 |
ketas | i might want to check numbers | 02:29 |
covidman | and this one: bombshell : https://x0.at/_TV.jpeg | 02:29 |
covidman | Jimmy Hoffa after all ! | 02:29 |
Julius5 | ketas, in the US, about 8000 people die every day without Covid-19. In the winter months probably even more | 02:30 |
covidman | /join #May_1st. "worker’s day" | 02:30 |
ketas | why winter? | 02:30 |
covidman | Jimmy Hoffa after all ! | 02:30 |
covidman | /join #May_1st. "worker’s day" | 02:30 |
ketas | largest cause was cardiovascular | 02:30 |
LjL | Julius5, well, first, the reason i'd normally look at a correlation chart is because i expect there to be some kind of correlation, quite possibly linear, but i'm not entirely sure whether or which; secondly, no, i would not actually expect to simply get 3 times more positives if i test 3 times as many, for the very obvious (if you've followed testing in any of the worst-hit countries) reason that when testing abilities are limited, a lot more people who | 02:30 |
LjL | are positive end up tested. for instance, Italy's testing numbers include the two negative tests that are required to declare someone "recovered"; however, those didn't actually get performed very much when testing was lesser, and hospitals were overflowing | 02:30 |
ketas | it has always been | 02:31 |
Julius5 | I don't know the current numbers, but 1-2 weeks ago the Us government expected up to 62'000 deaths by flu this season | 02:31 |
covidman | how much money is in the Covid game ? | 02:31 |
LjL | Julius5, i think if you have a look at https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/#box_6 you will find that notion confirmed | 02:31 |
covidman | OK, but how much money is in the Covid game ? | 02:31 |
ketas | Julius5: people see to forget that people actually die | 02:32 |
ketas | seem | 02:32 |
LjL | Julius5, as to what you're discussing with ketas, i have three websites i would suggest looking at: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://web.archive.org/web/20200423005306/https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://web.archive.org/web/20200424161633/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html | 02:33 |
covidman | how much money is in the Covid game ? | 02:33 |
LjL | i think you will find that what is going on doesn't simply get hidden in the normal deaths from winter, cold, flu, and so on. | 02:33 |
Julius5 | LjL, even in Italy on average the hospitals where never overflowing. And I don't see why you'd not expect 3 times as many postitive tests. I mean if you test 30000 times more, yes, it might be not linear. But 3 time more makes little difference | 02:33 |
Julius5 | LjL, something was going on? Statistics didn't even notice much | 02:34 |
LjL | Julius5, those websites i posted ARE statistics | 02:34 |
LjL | the first one is THE website for statistics on mortality in Europe | 02:34 |
LjL | have you considered clicking before refuting? | 02:35 |
Julius5 | LjL, yes, and most websites are still too dumb for correct statistics or they do it on purpose | 02:35 |
Julius5 | LjL, I will not check a bunch of websites. I don't post 20 websites either and tell you to check them | 02:35 |
LjL | Julius5, okay, this may not be the channel for you then | 02:36 |
Julius5 | LjL, or you | 02:36 |
LjL | i just said that the first site is posted is very much not "most websites" | 02:36 |
LjL | i beg to differ | 02:36 |
ketas | statistics seem like religion | 02:41 |
bildramer | I wish they had confession | 02:41 |
ketas | hah | 02:41 |
LjL | ketas, except in this case, he has NO faith in them depite being ABLE to verify them? | 02:42 |
LjL | so like, the opposite of religion | 02:42 |
LjL | i'm sure you will be more sensible than him and at least have a glance at those links, because really, they matter | 02:43 |
LjL | and they aren't even 20 | 02:43 |
bildramer | wow that's a bad fit | 02:44 |
bildramer | is it just sin()? why not sin(x) + sin(3x) | 02:45 |
bildramer | can I get the data somewhere | 02:45 |
ketas | LjL: not really as i've got bored of whole thing really | 02:46 |
ketas | restrictions getting lifted already too | 02:47 |
LjL | bildramer, whether it is a bad fit, i don't have the expertise to say, however your more specific question... makes no sense at all? the fit is obviously based on a yearly pattern, because that's what seasonality does | 02:48 |
LjL | and no, sadly you can't get the data as they are provided by the member states on a proprietary basis | 02:49 |
LjL | which is a "great" thing about EU members | 02:49 |
LjL | if there's one thing i like about the US, and it's pretty much just that one, is the default public domain status of government data | 02:49 |
bildramer | well as you can plainly see with eyeballs on the graph, the seasonality is a bit spikier than just sin() | 02:51 |
bildramer | adding more harmonics might let you capture that trend. 3 and maybe 5. 7+ would be overkill | 02:51 |
LjL | well, clearly they believe those spikes are deviation from the norm, which i can believe when i look at how different the spikes have been in the past few years | 02:52 |
bildramer | as for the physical meaning of such a thing, something something sunlight. | 02:52 |
LjL | the graphs don't go back many years but i'm sure they *have* data from many years, directly or inferred | 02:52 |
bildramer | I think it's just the seasonal flu, part of the norm, and that's why it's confusing | 02:52 |
LjL | well, if you disagree with their baseline you can just ignore it and still look at the sheer magnitude of this year's spike. admittedly it appears to be a *short-lived* spike in many countries, but, consider that the most recent data are extrapolated and tend towards the norm (saw that before in prior graphs), and that the sudden "cutoff" can easily be attributed to lockdowns | 02:53 |
bildramer | time to do the "gutsy bicep2 physicist" trick: reverse engineer the data from the graph lines | 02:54 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2018 cases (now 3403502), +167 deaths (now 239656) since an hour ago — Mexico: +1515 cases (now 20739), +113 deaths (now 1972) since 17 hours ago — Japan: +217 cases (now 14305) since 17 hours ago | 02:54 |
ketas | LjL: i'm so dissappointed that world just doesn't seem to end, although i prepared for it | 02:54 |
bildramer | or wait. it's all javascript, it should be on the page | 02:54 |
LjL | bildramer, but as to their baseline, if you scroll down to graphs of individual countries, you'll find a few countries, during a few years, did *not* deviate from "their norm" | 02:54 |
LjL | so either they magically didn't get the flu or... it was simply a non-unusual flu | 02:55 |
bildramer | it looks that way but that might just be imprecision | 02:55 |
LjL | ketas, well with any luck Russia might still invade you | 02:55 |
bildramer | I don't think "for some reason these 3 years, the only years this dataset includes, have a weird winter bump, and for the entire past it was sinusoidal" is a plausible explanation | 02:56 |
ketas | LjL: much more likely, yes | 02:56 |
bildramer | after adjusting for it you should get a more sensible estimate for the coronavirus death z-score | 02:56 |
ketas | there are also side-effects of covid | 02:57 |
bildramer | I don't think you can just subtract bump z-score from total z-score | 02:57 |
bildramer | ah fuck time to relearn R | 03:02 |
ketas | LjL: you know i still wonder why russia has not become world superpower but rather is perceived as local man who sometimes likes to drink and start pub fights from boredom | 03:07 |
pyna | amen break gets so much more press than soul pride break, so sad | 03:08 |
iz | ketas: i think that's intentional so no one does anything when they annex crimea or whatever... just a drunk ruskie wandering around, nothing to worry about | 03:10 |
pyna | look at their respective wikipedias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amen_break https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soul_Pride | 03:10 |
pyna | fair enough "amen brother" redirects to "amen break" and doesn't even have a page | 03:11 |
ketas | iz: crimea was fun too, just like don't have enough land or something | 03:12 |
ketas | i have blue ribbon and yellow ribbon attached to my backpack which i promised myself to get rid of when all of the land is given back | 03:14 |
friedbat | tie a yellow ribbon round the old oak tree... | 03:14 |
ketas | that is good song | 03:16 |
friedbat | *nod* | 03:16 |
ketas | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxG9XFqHSFw | 03:17 |
pyna | the great 20th century philosopher Montgomery Burns, when complimented on his achievement of extreme wealth, humbly observed "oh yes, but I'd trade it all for a little more" | 03:18 |
ketas | pyna: hahaha | 03:20 |
ketas | i wish i could have some money | 03:20 |
pyna | do you have some goods or services? | 03:22 |
ketas | but it woulf get boring quick | 03:22 |
ketas | pyna: i do | 03:23 |
ketas | kind of | 03:23 |
pyna | can you solder? | 03:24 |
pyna | actually, let me rephrase | 03:25 |
pyna | do you enjoy soldering | 03:25 |
pyna | cause, you know, out of the many two types of people, there's the people that like to solder and the people that would prefer not to solder | 03:26 |
pyna | i recognize, in myself, a desire for the result of soldering that vastly exceeds my desire to solder | 03:27 |
pyna | and of course, as a citizen of a nation of merchants, i would never be so impolite as to mention this without the means to pay meagerly for the right soldering peon | 03:30 |
ketas | pyna: yes, among many things i also enjoy that | 03:34 |
pyna | any good at it? | 03:40 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:30 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Malaysia to ease partial lockdown on Monday; Mexico reports 1,515 new cases: Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said that the country is losing about 2.4 billion Malaysian ringgit ($558.5 million) a day during the partial lockdown. → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 03:41 |
Nsvsonido | WTF? https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/01/trump-team-blocks-anthony-fauci-testifying-before-congress/3070048001/ | 03:41 |
ketas | pyna: yes, but no social skills | 03:45 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:31 UTC: Coronavirus Australia live news: two more staff members at Newmarch House test positive – latest updates: PM says federal lockdown rules will be reviewed in a week as some states ease restrictions slightly. Total of 6,767 Covid-19 cases recorded in Australia after 14 new cases on Friday: 1,022 are still active. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/o8js33 | 03:48 |
pyna | ketas: SMD? | 03:49 |
ketas | pyna: have done soics, i can't see why this would be much problem | 03:52 |
ketas | of a | 03:52 |
pyna | not trying to grill you but i been thinking about this a bit and if i got into it i can barely through-hole | 03:53 |
pyna | and like, this https://www.tindie.com/products/makersbox/smd-challenge/ | 03:53 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:52 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Malaysia to ease partial lockdown on Monday; China reports 1 new case: Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said that the country is losing about 2.4 billion Malaysian ringgit ($558.5 million) a day during the partial lockdown. → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 03:55 |
ketas | pyna: just tell her you're inexperienced | 03:57 |
pyna | until i knew that existed i wasnt aware that all those levels of heck even existed | 03:57 |
pyna | lol | 03:58 |
ketas | that is like grain of sand | 03:59 |
ketas | i love the board | 04:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | updated http://maemo.cloud-7.de/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 04:00 |
pyna | i'm working on figuring out where on the board people still end up unemployed due to collapse | 04:02 |
tinwhiskers | %cases france | 04:03 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas, France, there are 167346 total cases (0.2% of the population) and 24594 deaths (14.7% of cases) as of 26 minutes ago. 1.1 million tests were performed (15.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 04:03 |
bildramer | LjL: I give up, R is a bitch to work with | 04:11 |
bildramer | https://rnotebook.io/anon/765884ea02b9f424/notebooks/Welcome.ipynb | 04:11 |
bildramer | here's a plot with a better residual | 04:11 |
bildramer | I can't do the confidence intervals though | 04:11 |
bildramer | as you can see a 30000ish death spike is very apparent | 04:12 |
bildramer | and judging the variance by eye (lmao), that's a z-score of 4 or so | 04:12 |
qkall | :( | 04:24 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 02:25 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Malaysia says partial lockdown costs over $550 million a day; China reports 1 new case → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 04:31 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 03:04 UTC: /u/slakmehl: In a continuation of late night purges of Inspectors General deemed disloyal that began in early April , President Trump moves to replace the acting Health and Human Services IG who documented medical equipment shortages that have worsened the coronavirus response. → https://is.gd/FieMwl | 05:07 |
pyna | haha two days in the data source i have this script hooked up to are identical cases and deaths. if i was a genius that trusted my own automatiom, i would run as fast as i can to report how flat the curve just got | 05:08 |
pyna | Thu 04/30 14468 607 | 05:11 |
pyna | Wed 04/29 13445 516 | 05:11 |
pyna | Tue 04/28 13445 516 | 05:11 |
pyna | Mon 04/27 12868 484 | 05:11 |
LjL | wuut | 05:12 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 03:09 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Anthony Fauci blocked from testifying at House coronavirus hearing → https://is.gd/zK3ndm | 05:14 |
pyna | either there were no results on wednesday or a magical event happened | 05:14 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Mitt Romney proposes ‘patriot pay’ boost of $12 more per hour for frontline workers (10760 votes) | https://redd.it/gbs0n9 | 05:16 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 03:14 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Malaysia says partial lockdown costs over $550 million a day; China reports 1 new case → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 05:21 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:19 UTC: Coronavirus Australia live news: two more staff members at Newmarch House test positive – latest updates: PM says federal lockdown rules will be reviewed in a week as some states ease restrictions slightly. Total of 6,767 Covid-19 cases recorded in Australia after 14 new cases on Friday: 1,022 are still active. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/o8js33 | 05:35 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 03:35 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Germany reports fewer than 1,000 new cases; India extends nationwide lockdown: Germany's confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease, or Covid-19, rose by 945 to a total of 161,703, according to the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases. → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 05:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:54 UTC: Coronavirus Australia live news: two more staff members at Newmarch House test positive – latest updates: PM says federal lockdown rules will be reviewed in a week as some states ease restrictions slightly. Total of 6,767 Covid-19 cases recorded in Australia after 14 new cases on Friday: 1,022 are still active. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/o8js33 | 06:04 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:02 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: Germany reports fewer than 1,000 new cases; India extends nationwide lockdown: Germany's confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease, or Covid-19, rose by 945 to a total of 161,703, according to the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases. → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 06:11 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:03 UTC: Coronavirus Australia live news: AMA warns against starting NRL season too soon – latest updates: Peak medical body says all sporting codes should wait until medical experts say it is safe. Total of 6,767 Covid-19 cases recorded in Australia after 14 new cases on Friday: 1,022 are still active. Follow live → https://is.gd/o8js33 | 06:18 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:36 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Germany reports fewer than 1,000 new cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 06:39 |
de-facto | cases have demographic and vulnerability distributions in their social circles, e.g. if there was an initial "seed" on a ski-sport event deathrate might be lower since its young and sporty people and their friends, if it was in a hospital or in places with lots of older vulnerable people and their contacts death rates will be much higher | 06:44 |
de-facto | hence comparison on fatality counts might be difficult when comparing apples with pears | 06:45 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 04:41 UTC: CoronaVirusInfo: Coronavirus NSW: Dossier lays out case against China bat virus program → https://is.gd/iCwMAN | 06:46 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:48 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Germany reports fewer than 1,000 new cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 06:54 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 04:59 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Scott Gottlieb, MD su Twitter: "THREAD: Nationwide new covid19 cases and hospitalizations, excluding data from New York tristate area, continue to rise. Once declines in the New York area are added to recent trends, we still see a persistent, multi-week plateau at about 30,000 new cases a day and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ZF4EMV | 07:01 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:11 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Singapore to ease restrictions as second wave of cases subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 07:22 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:22 UTC: Coronavirus Australia live news: AMA warns against starting NRL season too soon – latest updates: Peak medical body says all sporting codes should wait until medical experts say it is safe. Total of 6,767 Covid-19 cases recorded in Australia after 14 new cases on Friday: 1,022 are still active. Follow live → https://is.gd/o8js33 | 07:36 |
Albright | Debunking some "make your own hand sanitizer/disinfectant spray"-type viral videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMHySlDqpUw | 07:54 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus* at 05:39 UTC: Coronavirus: Michigan GOP Senator, majority leader condems armed protesters in Capitol, calls them 'bunch of jackasses' → https://is.gd/ZcWXdM | 08:05 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:00 UTC: Health policy: UK seeks access to EU health cooperation in light of coronavirus → https://is.gd/SMdais | 08:12 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:07 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Singapore to ease restrictions as second wave of cases subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 08:26 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2058 cases (now 3405560), +52 deaths (now 239708) since 5 hours ago — Quebec, Canada: +1106 cases (now 28656), +163 deaths (now 2022) since a day ago — Ukraine: +550 cases (now 11411) since 22 hours ago | 08:36 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:30 UTC: Coronavirus Australia live news: AMA warns against starting NRL season too soon – latest updates: Peak medical body says all sporting codes should wait until medical experts say it is safe. Total of 6,767 Covid-19 cases recorded in Australia after 14 new cases on Friday: 1,022 are still active. Follow live → https://is.gd/o8js33 | 08:40 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:39 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Germany reports fewer than 1,000 new cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 08:48 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:49 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Singapore to ease restrictions as second wave of cases subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 08:55 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 07:20 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Germany reports fewer than 1,000 new cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 09:23 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 07:34 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Buongiorno a tutti, mentre eravate via → https://is.gd/EYmA3E | 09:37 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:40 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Singapore to ease restrictions as second wave of cases subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 09:44 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 07:50 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - Scienza → https://is.gd/E99Maz | 09:52 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 07:54 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA → https://is.gd/Ksf7mu | 09:59 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:00 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Brasile → https://is.gd/cVmidv | 10:06 |
i_ | how's everybody's 5g working out? | 10:12 |
mefistofeles | i_: what? | 10:13 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:11 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Francia → https://is.gd/3QAR3N | 10:13 |
i_ | should rename the channel to 5gates | 10:14 |
mefistofeles | i_: thanks for the suggestion, but no | 10:14 |
i_ | why? it would be more accurate, better than perpetuating an evil agenda | 10:16 |
mefistofeles | i_: no, and please stop the nonsense | 10:16 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:26 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Singapore → https://is.gd/zsunU3 | 10:27 |
aradesh | 5g magically creates coronaviruses, lol. | 10:36 |
mefistofeles | aradesh: hey, how is it going? | 10:46 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:44 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Unione Europea → https://is.gd/KqxE8b | 10:49 |
ketas | aradesh: yes, and 6g will get you pregnant if you don't wear foil cup "there" | 10:52 |
mefistofeles | lol | 10:53 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:49 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Irlanda → https://is.gd/Rd9e25 | 10:56 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 09:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Russia reports highest daily rise in cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 11:03 |
Urchin | %data russia | 11:03 |
Brainstorm | Urchin: In all areas, Russia, there are 114431 total cases (0.1% of the population) and 1169 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 14 minutes ago. 3.7 million tests were performed (3.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 8.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Russia for time series data. | 11:03 |
Urchin | well, they're ****** | 11:04 |
Urchin | %data usa | 11:04 |
Brainstorm | Urchin: Sorry, usa not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 11:04 |
mefistofeles | they are testing pretty extensively, apparently | 11:04 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +11151 cases (now 3416711), +89 deaths (now 239797) since 2 hours ago — Russia: +9623 cases (now 124054), +53 deaths (now 1222) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +552 cases (now 8790) since 19 hours ago | 11:07 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 09:10 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Spagna → https://is.gd/lu6roD | 11:17 |
aradesh | mefistofeles: not bad thanks! UK hit pretty hard with the virus now... | 11:19 |
aradesh | mefistofeles: only a matter of time until we become the country with the most coronavirus fatalities outside of USA | 11:20 |
mefistofeles | aradesh: so it seems, last two days were exponential growth again | 11:20 |
mefistofeles | it was showing some slowdown | 11:20 |
aradesh | yep. our slow-down looks slow, or non-existent | 11:21 |
aradesh | like the USA | 11:21 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 09:18 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - Italia → https://is.gd/JuvMka | 11:24 |
Arsanerit | 2020-05-01 21:45:16##covid-19: < mefistofeles> Arsanerit: what do you mean by live cases? But anyhow, what Brainstorm shows is total cumulated confirmed cases | 11:36 |
Arsanerit | mefistofeles: By live cases, I mean cases people who are currently sick, as opposed to people who have either recovered or died. | 11:37 |
Arsanerit | total cases = live cases + deaths + recoveries | 11:37 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:22 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Singapore to ease restrictions as second wave of cases subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 11:38 |
mefistofeles | Arsanerit: ok, yes, that's active cases | 11:43 |
mefistofeles | youñ d find that name more commonly | 11:43 |
mefistofeles | *you'd | 11:44 |
Arsanerit | mefistofeles: Ah, ok. | 11:45 |
mefistofeles | brb | 11:45 |
IndoAnon | mfw sg want a third wave | 11:45 |
d0mp1zl3_3 | is there a vaccine for covid19 | 11:47 |
IndoAnon | not yet... but, there's no commercial available vaccine for SARS ( 2019-NCoV/covid-19 is SARS-2) | 11:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2068 cases (now 3418779), +112 deaths (now 239909) since 54 minutes ago — Belarus: +911 cases (now 15828) since 19 hours ago — Belgium: +485 cases (now 49517), +62 deaths (now 7765) since 19 hours ago | 11:52 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 09:50 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: OMS → https://is.gd/JiHRtU | 11:53 |
d0mp1zl3_3 | So when a vaccine is finally available, who controls the fair/equal distribution of the vaccine? | 11:54 |
Arsanerit | that would depend on the country | 11:54 |
d0mp1zl3_3 | so lets say China discovers the vaccine first, who regulates the distribution to other nations | 11:56 |
mefistofeles | d0mp1zl3_3: it's a common offer/demand trade, so basically the pharmaceutical will have to see if they can cover the demand, if not then they can make deals with other big pharmaceuticals to cover the demands in other places, and such | 11:59 |
mefistofeles | Pfizer has partnered with some Chinese pharmaceutical for a covid-19 vaccine | 12:00 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 09:54 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/wOOSwZ | 12:00 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:00 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 12:07 |
mefistofeles | related https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-where-profit-and-public-health-collide/a-53301729 | 12:08 |
peterx[m] | %cases india | 12:18 |
Brainstorm | peterx[m]: In all areas, India, there are 37336 total cases (0.0% of the population) and 1223 deaths (3.3% of cases) as of 15 minutes ago. 976363 tests were performed (3.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 10.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 12:18 |
Biep[m] | <NoImNotNineVolt "anyone speak lojban? :P"> My lojban is about as good as my Volapük. | 12:25 |
Arsanerit | my lojban is also as good as my volapük :) | 12:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:28 UTC: UK coronavirus live: government insists it met 100,000 daily test target: Follow all the day’s developments in the UK’s Covid-19 crisis, including reports of how lockdown may be eased → https://is.gd/ZsgxoX | 12:35 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 10:41 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/nE0JKY | 12:43 |
pwr22 | I see we had a fan of Alex Jones 5G / Bill Gates Illuminati theories in here earlier? | 12:48 |
pwr22 | Did they get banned? | 12:48 |
tinwhiskers | %cases nowhere | 12:50 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: Sorry, nowhere not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 12:50 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:42 UTC: UK coronavirus live: government insists it met 100,000 daily test target: Follow all the day’s developments in the UK’s Covid-19 crisis, including reports of how lockdown may be eased → https://is.gd/ZsgxoX | 12:57 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 11:03 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Somalia → https://is.gd/LAIN5U | 13:04 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2372 cases (now 3421151), +77 deaths (now 239986) since an hour ago — Iran: +802 cases (now 96448), +65 deaths (now 6156) since 21 hours ago — Qatar: +776 cases (now 14872) since 21 hours ago | 13:07 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 11:04 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/yDhZHQ | 13:11 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 11:18 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - Irlanda → https://is.gd/cC67D6 | 13:18 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 11:23 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Russia reports highest daily rise in cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 13:25 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:34 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 13:40 |
d0mp1zl3_3 | https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1256539458473734144 "A new clinical study is investigating whether prayer might make a difference in the outcomes of COVID-19 patients who require intensive care. “We all believe in science, and we also believe in faith,” says the principal investigator." | 13:40 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 11:40 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Russia reports highest daily rise in cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 13:47 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3623 cases (now 3424774), +322 deaths (now 240308) since 50 minutes ago — Spain: +2579 cases (now 245567), +276 deaths (now 25100) since 19 hours ago — Brazil: +428 cases (now 92630) since 5 hours ago | 13:53 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 11:52 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: il livethread fa una pausa per pranzo. → https://is.gd/U6HTnv | 13:54 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus* at 11:53 UTC: Coronavirus: 101-year-old woman survived the Spanish flu and cancer – now beats coronavirus → https://is.gd/zZaqZR | 14:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:59 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 14:15 |
mefistofeles | d0mp1zl3_3: hah | 14:21 |
ubLXI | UK academic dwells on convolution and effect of Chinese censorship: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/05/harmoniously-denied-the-wider-implications-of-chinas-censorship-on-covid-19.html | 14:25 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 12:28 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/YajlT2 | 14:30 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:31 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Russia reports highest daily rise in cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 14:37 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 12:43 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Europa - Turismo → https://is.gd/HBFCXh | 14:44 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 12:45 UTC: Covid2019: Climate crisis: Coronavirus causing collapse in demand for fossil fuels while renewables make major gains, according to major global report | The Independent → https://is.gd/jbRX0q | 14:51 |
mefistofeles | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/489 nice to see some numbers in this. ~86% cases were undocummented, explaining why it spread so widely. Nothing unexpected, but with actual figures and statistics | 14:53 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:50 UTC: (news): Russia reports highest daily rise in coronavirus cases; Singapore prepares to ease partial lockdown → https://is.gd/NcjLeb | 14:58 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:04 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/GEyT6P | 15:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2827 cases (now 3427601), +154 deaths (now 240462) since an hour ago — Saudi Arabia: +1362 cases (now 25459) since 23 hours ago — Sweden: +562 cases (now 22082) since 23 hours ago | 15:08 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:16 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Malesia → https://is.gd/6R7OqU | 15:20 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:22 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA → https://is.gd/qCbRC3 | 15:27 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:43 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/yBJ9rN | 15:48 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:50 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: US cases top 1.1 million as hospitals increase safety measures to reassure patients → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 15:56 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:59 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Economia → https://is.gd/lpXwHg | 16:03 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:03 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Protesters demand states reopen businesses and ease restrictions as US cases top 1.1 million → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 16:10 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 14:17 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Spagna → https://is.gd/LwIF7e | 16:17 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2395 cases (now 3429996), +109 deaths (now 240571) since an hour ago — US: +2021 cases (now 1134059), +103 deaths (now 65886) since an hour ago — Maryland, US: +1001 cases (now 24473), +59 deaths (now 1251) since 23 hours ago | 16:24 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:25 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump hails Senate return and says Pelosi 'crazy' for not reopening House → https://is.gd/J7p8UW | 16:31 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:30 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Protesters demand states reopen businesses and ease restrictions as US cases top 1.1 million → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 16:39 |
LjL | many countries are preparing to "re-open" now, to limited extents maybe, but they're mostly all doing it at the same time in Europe, likely part of it is not getting left behind economy-wise... | 16:43 |
LjL | but the UK which never had a full lockdown, on the flipside, they are not having a re-opening either, aiui | 16:43 |
mefistofeles | hah | 16:43 |
LjL | and their data are not nearly as comforting as in other countries | 16:43 |
mefistofeles | many didn'thave full lockdown, but from those probably the UK was the most hit | 16:44 |
LjL | well, i'm thinking about the highly populated countries. i guess Germany hasn't had one either, but Germany has also been "special"... in a good way, for a change | 16:44 |
mefistofeles | yes | 16:45 |
LjL | to be fair it's not like it's exponential in the UK either, just linear without a hint of getting less than linear | 16:45 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:31 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 16:46 |
LjL | i am definitely wondering if distancing or "soft lockdown" measures are thwarting the exponential curve, or there really is also something about this virus, like some seasonality | 16:46 |
LjL | i know seasonality claims are dubious, i was never much of a believer in them | 16:46 |
sookie | they make sense to me | 16:46 |
LjL | but after seeing that many countries' curves are changing at roughly the same time, despite the lockdowns starting at different times, i wonder | 16:46 |
sookie | there is documented evidence that uv exposure and heat+humidity reduce the virus's half-life. these all increase in summertime. | 16:47 |
LjL | sookie, well there have been countries hit that are already very hot, like Singapore, and they kept it under control for a while but it's actually exponential *now* (or was until recently) | 16:47 |
mefistofeles | yes, imho the peak happened weeks before the social distancing measures, and these didn't really make much of a difference, tbh | 16:47 |
sookie | yeah, it doesn't mean you can't have covid in summer, seasonality is more about intensity | 16:47 |
mefistofeles | for most highly populated european countries | 16:47 |
LjL | sookie, there is also evidence that poor air circulation aids it... which would mean that things improve *now* because people keep windows open, but later when instead of "warm" it'll be "hot", windows will be closed again and people will use A/C | 16:48 |
LjL | and that could be far from good | 16:48 |
mefistofeles | there are some well-known prestigious politicians criticizing German government because of that | 16:48 |
LjL | sookie, in the case of things like flu, though, seasonality means "it nearly goes away and stays around just enough to avoid dying off completely", and some people used to claim we could expect a similar effect | 16:48 |
mefistofeles | flu seems to mutate more, also | 16:49 |
sookie | flu's r0 is near 1, reducing it a bit for summertime means r_eff could fall below 1 causing that die-out | 16:49 |
sookie | covid r0 is thought to be in the 2-2.5 vicinity | 16:49 |
sookie | say summer reduces to 1.5 or so, no natural die-out | 16:50 |
sookie | i don't see a contradiction | 16:50 |
genera | who is critizising germany? | 16:50 |
genera | and for waht. the lokdown? | 16:51 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Protesters demand US states ease restrictions; Spain opens after seven-week lockdown → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 16:53 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I think mere testing capacity is limiting the capabilities to reveal any exponential growth, after cases/d hit a certain threshold | 16:56 |
sookie | LjL: your point on open windows vs. a/c is a good one. | 16:56 |
sookie | which might mean a small bump up | 16:56 |
sookie | but winter vs. summer in some places means closed windows in both cases. with the winter months meaning heating (warm drier air) and summer months meaning air conditioned cooling (cooler more humid) | 16:57 |
sookie | i believe these respiratory particles stay suspended in air longer in drier air | 16:58 |
nenadandric[m] | What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations | 16:59 |
nenadandric[m] | https://ncase.me/covid-19/ | 16:59 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:56 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Spain opens after seven-week lockdown; protesters demand US states ease restrictions → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 17:00 |
sookie | also, i forget where i heard it but aside from the drier air meaning flu droplets stay in the air longer, i seem to recall some people suggesting the drier air makes our mucous membranes (nose and mouth) more susceptible to infection | 17:02 |
sookie | wonder if that holds for coronaviruses too | 17:03 |
sookie | it seems to be true for rhinoviruses (more people seem to get the common cold in winter than in summer) | 17:03 |
LjL | there are all sorts of theories on seasonality, it's probably a combination of factors | 17:05 |
sookie | if places are on the downswing in northern hemisphere countries and if the 20-30% infection rates are true, then we're clearly far from herd immunity (if such thing is even possible). meaning next winter we'll get another round of this crap. | 17:06 |
sookie | and as fast as they would like to work on a vaccine, we're not going to have one by september. no way. | 17:08 |
sookie | so our only hope to not repeating this fiasco in round #2 is better testing/contact-tracing and possibly available therapeutics (remdesivir seems promising) | 17:09 |
sookie | oh, and there will be another issue. this year covid actually came after the flu. on the tail-end. if it comes back in september, you might get both flu and covid curves coinciding. nightmare! | 17:11 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:11 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - New York → https://is.gd/oLW6ec | 17:14 |
LjL | remdesivir seems promising only by virtue of everything else seeming very much not promising | 17:16 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:17 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Francia → https://is.gd/RpkwxX | 17:21 |
synux | sookie, That would be a catastrophe! I remember there has been a quite severe flu season in Spain that relaxed a few weeks before the coronavirus started its spread. There is still a lot of time left until we get a vaccine. The most hit countries should start as soon as possible preparing for the probable second wave. | 17:21 |
sookie | synux: i agree. having flu and covid coincide is bad news. | 17:27 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 15:25 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Efficacia nelle prime fasi di ricerca, capacita' di produzione, agenzie internazionali e grandi aziende farmaceutiche saranno tutti fattori che determineranno chi, come, e quando un vaccino per SARS-CoV-19 sara' disponibile → https://is.gd/dPb66v | 17:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3602 cases (now 3.4 million), +170 deaths (now 240741) since an hour ago — US: +1925 cases (now 1.1 million), +74 deaths (now 65960) since an hour ago — Florida, US: +735 cases (now 35463) since a day ago | 17:36 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:32 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: At least 14 states begin first phase of reopening this weekend → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 17:36 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:39 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: At least 15 states begin first phase of reopening this weekend → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 17:43 |
calbasi_matrix | <sookie "if places are on the downswing i"> What about to look for the herd inmmunity where is possible? | 17:45 |
calbasi_matrix | Let me explain... | 17:45 |
calbasi_matrix | There are some countries, like Germany, maybe Sweden, with a good health system, with high number of UCI per capita... | 17:47 |
calbasi_matrix | There you could just set the minimum bans to prevend the health system will be overflowed... | 17:48 |
calbasi_matrix | It's the Sweeden way. | 17:48 |
calbasi_matrix | If, for example, Norway is going to have the same FINAL death rate, but more spaced in time, has more sense try to not stop the covid19 IF YOUR HEALTH SYSTEM has not risk to be surpassed, obviously. | 17:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:48 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Aggiornamento numero di contagi in Italia 2 Maggio → https://is.gd/BYCRCk | 17:50 |
calbasi_matrix | In fact, the new movements in most european countries are opening a bit their restrictions... Then coronavirus spread more than now, the R factor increase a bit (they hope), but not enough to surpass health system... | 17:52 |
calbasi_matrix | So in 2-4 weeks all these countries could have a situation/restrictions like Sweden | 17:53 |
calbasi_matrix | It's not the same arribe Setptember/October with a 40% people who had coronavirus (most assimptomatically) than just 20%. With a high number of people "inmune", better R rates you'll get on the second wave | 17:55 |
d0mp1zl3_3 | help pls..what is R factor? | 17:56 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:55 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: AGGIORNAMENTO 02/05/2020 ORE 17.00 POSITIVI AL nCoV oad i i i Totale DIMESS!/ | pecepuri| CASITOTALI cst Tora TAMPONI | CASI TESTATI ome fee, | scent antmene | ev ree positivi Lombardia 6529 545 29.593 36.667 | __77.002 | | 243.383 | Piemonte 2.550 178 12.991 15.719 | 27.179 | 118.814 Emilia [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XzVMRt | 17:57 |
ubLXI | calbasi_matrix: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden;Denmark;Norway;Finland;Iceland - looking at the graph for deaths, how do you convince yourself Norway might ultimately have same number of deaths as Sweden? | 18:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2477 cases (now 3.4 million), +333 deaths (now 241074) since 32 minutes ago — Chile: +1427 cases (now 18435) since 23 hours ago — India: +440 cases (now 37776) since 9 hours ago | 18:06 |
calbasi_matrix | <ubLXI "calbasi: https://offloop.net/cov"> Because if you have not the health system surpassed, people who, receiving the "usual" medical assistance, could not be avoided. | 18:11 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:03 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: At least 15 states begin first phase of reopening this weekend → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 18:12 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: TRANSLATION: In Malta, once the vaccine for COVID-19 is found, it will be given for free to everyone. (10367 votes) | https://redd.it/gc3rig | 18:12 |
calbasi_matrix | Then, how to avoid a virus kill this people: just avoiding people reach these people... But it's not possible in virus like flu or coronavirus (except with an impossible to keep forever lockdown) | 18:12 |
calbasi_matrix | This premises are not "the true", and can be discussed, obviously... but let me follow... | 18:13 |
LjL | calbasi_matrix, unless it has changed in recent years, unlikely, Germany, Sweden does NOT have a high number of ICU per capita at all: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8/figures/1 it's one of the lowest | 18:14 |
ubLXI | I am having trouble understanding your English | 18:14 |
calbasi_matrix | Norway is just avoiding virus spread with a lockdown. Fine. But it's not possible to keep lockdown forever, like here in Spain. Then? Here we are "opening" this lockdown (for example today is fist day in spain to practice individual sports, etc.) | 18:14 |
LjL | calbasi_matrix, the idea is to restart the economy while SLOWLY "re-opening" things and watching careful for ICU occupation, while also doing much better (hopefully) contact tracing than before | 18:15 |
calbasi_matrix | <ubLXI "I am having trouble understandin"> It's not the best, but I suppose you can understand at all my Catalan or Spanish. Just ask me what you don't understand :-p | 18:15 |
LjL | yo creo entender tu español pero ubLXI probablemente no | 18:16 |
ubLXI | your English is better than my Spanish and Catalan, no question | 18:16 |
LjL | ubLXI, de veritat, el teu ingles es millor que el teu català? | 18:16 |
LjL | meanwhile in Italy, we have pretty awful numbers today | 18:17 |
synux | De veres catalans ací? Haha | 18:17 |
LjL | jo no sóc molt "ver" | 18:17 |
ubLXI | LjL: Això espero | 18:18 |
calbasi_matrix | <LjL "calbasi, unless it has changed i"> Yes, but it's not the only factor. The important data is % of UCI empty... If you can have a 20% ? 30% ? empty, you are OK. Maybe in a country with few people / km2 it's easier then, for example, in HonkHong or even in Franckfurt or Berlin... | 18:18 |
LjL | ubLXI, that probably doesn't mean "i expect so" if you were expecting that | 18:18 |
calbasi_matrix | <LjL "yo creo entender tu español pero"> No hay problema, continuo en mi mla inglés :-) | 18:18 |
ubLXI | i was hoping | 18:18 |
calbasi_matrix | <synux "De veres catalans ací? Haha"> SDom una plaga :-p | 18:19 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:14 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 18:19 |
LjL | calbasi_matrix, ICU number is ICU number, if it's low, you have a much lower margin to deal with | 18:20 |
LjL | and since you there is "lag" (delay) in monitoring, that's not a good thing | 18:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3126 cases (now 3.4 million), +493 deaths (now 241567) since 18 minutes ago — Italy: +1900 cases (now 209328), +474 deaths (now 28710) since a day ago — US: +1160 cases (now 1.1 million) since 18 minutes ago | 18:21 |
genera | are there reports on how long in ICU the COVID patients stayed? in UK, in .de, in it ? | 18:21 |
calbasi_matrix | What I try to explain it's not possible use the Sweden way here in Spain, because our health system has been surpassed (I think we have 260% UCI filled up, the normal UCI and a 160% more, provisional). Then just lockdown is possible... Maybe it's the only way when you have the virus spreading on Barcelona or Madrid... | 18:21 |
calbasi_matrix | But Germany has 3 times more UCI per capita than Spain, so they have more capacity to manage the situation, the un-lockdown, even the herd inmunity than Spain or USA | 18:22 |
synux | LjL, that may be the reason why Greeks were extremely cautious and took action extremely soon in order to avoid the Italian or Spanish situation. | 18:22 |
calbasi_matrix | <LjL "and since you there is "lag" (de"> You are right. It's not an easy exercise. And not only UCI. I've read here that you can not "buy" nurses (medical personal). That's the problem, for example, in a rich country with a poor (public) health system. Not the German situation. | 18:24 |
calbasi_matrix | <synux "LjL, that may be the reason why "> That's a wisdom behavior | 18:25 |
LjL | synux, the whole of eastern europe was largely spared, i am not sure how much it has to do with early lockdowns. i mean it's possible, but they haven't all behaved the same | 18:26 |
synux | genera, I recall hearing that ICU patients are the longest to stay in hospital, I think 3 weeks or so, not sure though. | 18:26 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 16:24 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Medicina → https://is.gd/jdwZLE | 18:26 |
LjL | genera, reports as to ICU durations, i have no detailed numbers, but i've kept hearing they stay a long time, with 2 weeks often mentioned (which is a very long time compared to average ICU stays before COVID) | 18:27 |
LjL | well, ICU with ventilator | 18:27 |
LjL | yeah, 2-3 weeks, it's very long | 18:27 |
genera | yes i read of even 4 weeks. but would be curious if that is the case in .de too | 18:27 |
calbasi_matrix | But I just trying to say: I think people critizying Swedish strategy (herd inmunity, in a country with, de facto, lot of people self-locked at homes: carrot model, not beat model) looking Swedish death rate are not understanding they are not looking having the same death rate thant Denmak NOW, but they are looking have a similar death rate when all this nightmare finish... | 18:27 |
LjL | genera, not sure, i've had a quick search for preprints but i'm only finding papers from china | 18:28 |
genera | tnx | 18:29 |
LjL | i'm seeing papers that *assume* a hospital stay of 12 days on average | 18:30 |
LjL | but that might just be a guesstimate to make their models | 18:30 |
ubLXI | calbasi_matrix: maybe that is Sweden's thinking, but you can't get herd immunity without a vaccine (the virus will just keep circulating), hence the strategy of spread-limiting tactics until a vaccine is available | 18:30 |
calbasi_matrix | <ubLXI "calbasi: maybe that is Sweden's "> I don't think so. Herd inmunity stops Spanish flu, doesn't it? | 18:31 |
LjL | ubLXI, you can get herd immunity (assuming reasonable duration of immunity)... it just results in many deaths | 18:32 |
LjL | if duration of immune response turns out to be very short, though, then no | 18:32 |
calbasi_matrix | When virus reach all the people: they kill most weak for its caracteristics, like annual flu, or even "viruela" (I don't remember English word) | 18:32 |
LjL | the mortality profile is nothing like annual flu | 18:33 |
ubLXI | *you can't get herd immunity without a vaccine unless you infect the large majority of the population, with multiple waves, and kill a very large number of people | 18:33 |
calbasi_matrix | All others are: | 18:34 |
calbasi_matrix | - inmunizied | 18:34 |
calbasi_matrix | - are not suitable, in their present health situation, for the virus (I can not die today, but in two years, suffering another patology, with my inmunologic system altered, die) | 18:34 |
synux | <LjL "the whole of eastern europe was largely spared"> That is interesting. I'm looking at a map right now and there seems to be a surprising difference between eastern and western Europe. I don't know if it may be due to a different weather, different control policies or just because there is less tourism. | 18:34 |
LjL | ubLXI, i'm pretty sure it will have to happen to some extent. the vaccine won't miraculously come before a year at minimum, and it's becoming clearer and clearer than the economy, and many people, won't accept a lockdown for much longer unless you bring in the army and start shooting | 18:35 |
genera | viruela = variola ? | 18:35 |
LjL | synux, "less tourism" (or less movement in general) was the explanation i've heard most often, but... Greece? tons of tourism to Greece | 18:35 |
LjL | %w vieruela | 18:35 |
Brainstorm | LjL, I haven't loaded the spellchecker yet, I'll tell you in a minute! | 18:35 |
Brainstorm | LjL, English spelling suggestions: clavier (myspell/en*) — virile, viral, verily, virtual (aspell/en*) | 18:35 |
LjL | %w viruela | 18:35 |
Brainstorm | LjL, viruela — noun: 1. (pathology, uncountable) smallpox, 2. (pathology) Any of the fluid-filled blisters caused by smallpox → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/viruela | 18:35 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5166 cases (now 3.4 million), +631 deaths (now 242198) since 20 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +4806 cases (now 182260), +621 deaths (now 28131) since a day ago — US: +350 cases (now 1.1 million) since 20 minutes ago | 18:36 |
calbasi_matrix | <ubLXI "*you can't get herd immunity wit"> That's true. Which is the death rate of flu? Maybe 0,1% And coronavirus? Maybe 3 times more? I'm not talking about the death rate between people who suffer strong sympthoms, I'm talking about the hole population... Every year lot of people has the flu virus inside, but they don't realize, for example most of the children and young people. | 18:36 |
calbasi_matrix | <LjL "ubLXI, i'm pretty sure it will h"> Not just the people: capitalism can support this ;-) That's why europeans, and some USA states are having progressive reopen policies just now. | 18:38 |
calbasi_matrix | <genera "viruela = variola ?"> Maybe, the disease that today is just in laboratories on USA and Russia :-p | 18:39 |
synux | LjL, "tons of tourism to Greece" true, even being the 12th most visited country, it is a lot. Maybe not so much people visit Greece in winter. That could be the only reason I can think of right now. | 18:39 |
ubLXI | well we do have to open up at least some things, otherwise we will all starve to death in a few months | 18:39 |
calbasi_matrix | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox | 18:40 |
calbasi_matrix | %w smallpox | 18:40 |
Brainstorm | calbasi_matrix, smallpox — noun: 1. (medicine) An acute, highly infectious often fatal disease caused by Variola virus of the family Poxviridae. It was completely eradicated in the 1970s. Those who survived were left with pockmarks → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/smallpox | 18:40 |
LjL | synux, maybe | 18:41 |
LjL | ubLXI, well you haven't even *closed* most of those things i'm thinking of, unlike italy/spain | 18:41 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 16:45 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - New York → https://is.gd/H86EVu | 18:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4588 cases (now 3.4 million), +471 deaths (now 242669) since 18 minutes ago — Turkey: +1983 cases (now 124375), +78 deaths (now 3336) since a day ago — Ecuador: +1128 cases (now 27464), +308 deaths (now 1371) since a day ago | 18:51 |
LjL | genera, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_29_april_2020.pdf has average number of days from hospitalization (including ICU) to death, on the last page. those are short durations, but i believe ICU stay for patients who *survive* is a lot longer | 18:55 |
genera | *nod* | 18:56 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:52 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Antibody study estimates 12% of New Yorkers have had virus, Cuomo says → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 18:56 |
LjL | genera, but still, the ICU-to-death number is 8. so you can safely assume that in italy, the average ICU stay is *at least* 8 days | 18:56 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 17:09 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/HAzWbh | 19:10 |
LjL | all Intercity and high speed trains in Italy will require wearing a face mask and buying a ticket (for a specific seat) with your ID starting tomorrow | 19:14 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:13 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Antibody study estimates 12% of New Yorkers have had virus, Cuomo says → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 19:18 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4472 cases (now 3.5 million), +296 deaths (now 242965) since 31 minutes ago — US: +3961 cases (now 1.1 million), +275 deaths (now 66618) since 31 minutes ago — New Jersey, US: +2527 cases (now 123717), +204 deaths (now 7742) since a day ago | 19:21 |
aradesh | 621 deaths today in the UK. our numbers are really reluctant to start reducing. | 19:32 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:25 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 19:39 |
LjL | aradesh, i think that's lower than yesterday which was 800 something | 19:40 |
LjL | anyway our deaths went back up by a fair amount today | 19:40 |
LjL | may include previous uncounted deaths though | 19:40 |
aradesh | yup. | 19:42 |
synux | Daily new cases in the UK seem to have stabilized, although they don't show a clear decline, like in the USA | 19:43 |
aradesh | synux: yeah, that's what i meant. not really going down | 19:44 |
aradesh | USA stuck at about 2000/day, UK at about 700/day | 19:44 |
aradesh | there's still a definite sense here of people not really taking it seriously | 19:45 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 17:39 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Intrattenimento → https://is.gd/D7bSAd | 19:47 |
synux | aradesh: And seeing other countries starting to de-confine may give the population a false sense of improvement in the UK. | 19:48 |
aradesh | yeah, there's a sense of, "oh. it must be nearly over now." | 19:49 |
LjL | i call that being an idiot | 19:50 |
aradesh | people haven't got it into their heads that no, we can't go back to normal because, we have not been good enough at doing lockdown. | 19:52 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:43 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump hails Senate return and says Pelosi 'crazy' for not reopening House → https://is.gd/J7p8UW | 19:54 |
oriba | some weeks longer, and things might be more or less easy to control. Opening now and it will come back in waves. So, those who are impatient will male things worse for them, because the next lockdown might be necessary, and maybe even more strict. | 19:54 |
synux | exactly that | 19:55 |
oriba | you can't fool the exponential function. math is mercyless. | 19:57 |
oriba | s/mercyless/mercisless/ | 19:57 |
oriba | s/mercyless/merciless/ | 19:57 |
Birosso | Test | 20:00 |
Birosso | s/Test/bleach | 20:00 |
Birosso | :O | 20:00 |
oriba | Birosso: there was a time, when there was a bot correcting... | 20:02 |
LjL | i disabled that bot feature | 20:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5897 cases (now 3.5 million), +126 deaths (now 243091) since 47 minutes ago — US: +4244 cases (now 1.1 million) since 47 minutes ago — New York, US: +3991 cases (now 319213) since 2 hours ago | 20:06 |
LjL | it was criticized based on details, and honestly, i feel it adds unnecessary lines mostly | 20:07 |
LjL | Matrix edits from the IRC bridge are bad enough | 20:07 |
bin_bash | sed replace > matrix | 20:07 |
Birosso | [<{( [20:07:26] <LjL> Matrix edits from the IRC bridge are bad enough )}>] And the way it quotes text. | 20:08 |
LjL | yes, but the edits are worse | 20:08 |
LjL | people assume (correctly, from a Matrix perspective) they can just correct their message as many times as they want. but EACH of those generates a whole new message on IRC, and sometimes, the message is long enough to span TWO messages on IRC | 20:09 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:04 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/fBwHbz | 20:09 |
LjL | when that happens it's just a lot of fun | 20:09 |
bin_bash | and there's no way to get rid of edits? | 20:11 |
LjL | no, i wish there was because aside from the IRC bridge, i'm opposed to edits as a matter of principle | 20:12 |
LjL | i feel there should be a way to disable them in my room. however, the way they are implemented is basically just a whole new message, with a tag to make clients recognize it as an edit | 20:13 |
bin_bash | thats lame | 20:13 |
LjL | so "disabling" it would be problematic from a protocol point of view | 20:13 |
bin_bash | if it were me i'd just scrap the bridge but apparently thats an unpopular opinion :( | 20:13 |
LjL | it's one you're certainly entitled to, but *most* people in this channel are connecting from Matrix (although that may be an unfair comparison because they do not need bouncers to stay connected), so it would be a big change, to say the least | 20:15 |
Birosso | Edits are a terrible idea. I've trolled many people on Discord by editing messages after the conversation was over. :/ | 20:15 |
LjL | Birosso, exactly. | 20:16 |
LjL | Birosso, i think without history, they're a bad idea even on Reddit... nevermind on a realtime chat | 20:16 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:09 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - Medicina → https://is.gd/paRWWr | 20:16 |
LjL | Birosso, Matrix had message deleting abilities before. i found that was more than enough to comply with the GDPR and let people remove messages they didn't feel comfortable with | 20:16 |
Birosso | I agree they're bad if you can edit the original, but not if you can add something to it, which many people do with EDIT: ... | 20:16 |
Birosso | Would be better of course if it was mandatory. | 20:16 |
LjL | although i already contested the fact that their protocol description MANDATES respecting deletions by clients | 20:16 |
LjL | Birosso, i edit my Reddit messages often, like for instance to make many of the things i state into hyperlinks to pages substantiating them. i think it's useful. but it's silly that the reason for editing has to be stated inline instead of there being an out-of-band place to state it, and there should be history just like on wikipedia. | 20:18 |
Birosso | Wait, there is no history on Reddit? | 20:18 |
LjL | nope, it's considered good manners to state what you've changed, and it shows an * if you edit after more than 3 minutes from writing the message, but no history | 20:19 |
LjL | i don't even *do* those things that are considered good manners, because i feel it makes posts look silly and annoying | 20:20 |
LjL | if they want me to do that there should be a dedicated edit summary and history | 20:20 |
LjL | imagine having Wikipedia articles with edit summaries interspersed in the article itself | 20:20 |
Birosso | But why are we comparing Reddit comments to Wikipedia articles? | 20:21 |
Birosso | Or are you talking about editing posts and not comments? | 20:21 |
LjL | Birosso, i'm not claiming they're the same thing but sometimes reddit posts *and* comments are long and complex enough to both warrant editing, and to make "inline" edit summaries look very silly | 20:22 |
LjL | and i'm saying on realtime chat it's even worse to have edits like that | 20:22 |
LjL | (or at all) | 20:22 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 18:17 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 20:23 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:21 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Antibody study estimates 12% of New Yorkers have had virus, Cuomo says → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 20:30 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:36 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: New York → https://is.gd/q5PlN9 | 20:38 |
oriba | invent a git-based chat, then edits are possible... and the original is accessible. edits via pull-requests ;-) | 20:41 |
oriba | or use a typo-edit branch... | 20:42 |
bin_bash | ew | 20:42 |
oriba | or even normal messages via pull requests, heheh | 20:43 |
bin_bash | just stop | 20:44 |
bin_bash | i might die | 20:44 |
bin_bash | :P | 20:44 |
oriba | we could also write letters again | 20:44 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:43 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Scienza → https://is.gd/wVuwl3 | 20:45 |
oriba | telepathy? | 20:45 |
oriba | I edit your thoughts, you got from me via telepathy. | 20:47 |
oriba | via push | 20:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2153 cases (now 3.5 million), +200 deaths (now 243291) since 48 minutes ago — France: +1050 cases (now 168396), +166 deaths (now 24760) since a day ago — US: +822 cases (now 1.1 million) since 48 minutes ago | 20:51 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 18:48 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump hails Senate return and says Pelosi 'crazy' for not reopening House → https://is.gd/J7p8UW | 20:52 |
oriba | corona crisis is over, I see it here on irc. no traffic, so anything is fine. Even LjL calmed down. | 20:52 |
genera | they are all dead | 20:53 |
oriba | ah, ok. | 20:54 |
oriba | should we die too? | 20:55 |
genera | no | 20:56 |
genera | we are the nerd immunity | 20:56 |
oriba | so we save the others | 20:57 |
oriba | but where were we, when they died? | 20:58 |
genera | i suspect The Matrix, but we are not allowed to talk :-) | 20:59 |
genera | back to listening to John Campbell | 20:59 |
oriba | our daily Campbell give us ... | 21:00 |
oriba | last video 8 hours old. already saw it, while doing the dishes... | 21:00 |
sookie | if i stop talking for more than 2 days, i'm dead | 21:05 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:59 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Antibody study estimates 12% of New Yorkers have had virus, Cuomo says → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 21:06 |
oriba | sookie: you work in a callcenter? | 21:06 |
sookie | i don't think so | 21:07 |
oriba | lockdown is great. I can use much garlic for the spaghetti then, and nobody get's a crisis from the smell... | 21:10 |
LjL | oriba, no better way to un-calm me down than saying things like that | 21:11 |
LjL | like many other people i have, incredibly, bouts of being tired of obsessing over it | 21:11 |
LjL | but that doesn't mean things are better | 21:11 |
oriba | LjL: don't know what you are talking about, and what drives you crazy. | 21:13 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:02 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 21:13 |
mefistofeles | haha | 21:14 |
mefistofeles | things are way better, without a doubt | 21:14 |
lanikai | https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/government-researchers-changed-metric-to-measure-coronavirus-drug-remdesivir-during-clinical-trial/ar-BB13ui2k?ocid=st2 | 21:14 |
oriba | lanikai: it's called the trump-metric I guess | 21:15 |
lanikai | oriba: no sharpie this time | 21:15 |
mefistofeles | lanikai: they did change | 21:17 |
mefistofeles | https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT04280705?A=10&B=16&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop | 21:18 |
mefistofeles | clinical trials are a complicated thing | 21:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4252 cases (now 3.5 million), +259 deaths (now 243550) since 33 minutes ago — India: +1923 cases (now 39699) since 3 hours ago — US: +1413 cases (now 1.1 million), +164 deaths (now 66814) since 33 minutes ago | 21:22 |
lanikai | fauci appears to have a few toes in Jonestown | 21:24 |
xrogaan | nothing is ever too simple, is it? | 21:26 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:34 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Antibody study estimates 12% of New Yorkers have had virus, Cuomo says → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 21:42 |
johnn | but of course they added Tamiflu in the Millions to the National Stockpile pre-Jonestown so | 21:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5413 cases (now 3.5 million), +284 deaths (now 243834) since 33 minutes ago — US: +3327 cases (now 1.2 million), +107 deaths (now 66921) since 33 minutes ago — Illinois, US: +2450 cases (now 58505), +102 deaths (now 2559) since a day ago | 21:52 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:53 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Texas posts third straight day of 1,000 new cases as state reopens → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 21:56 |
mefistofeles | %cases Germany | 21:57 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In all areas, Germany, there are 164602 total cases (0.2% of the population) and 6755 deaths (4.1% of cases) as of 9 minutes ago. 2.5 million tests were performed (6.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 5.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 21:57 |
johnn | https://www.teenvogue.com/story/nurses-dont-want-to-be-called-heroes?utm_social-type=owned&utm_medium=social&utm_brand=tv&utm_source=twitter&mbid=social_twitter | 22:03 |
johnn | https://www.teenvogue.com/story/nurses-dont-want-to-be-called-heroes sorry | 22:04 |
HeroRN | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/us/politics/trump-health-department-watchdog.html jonestown | 22:11 |
HeroRN | https://www.salon.com/2020/05/02/more-than-70-of-jobless-americans-did-not-receive-march-unemployment-benefits-study/ i'll move to -vox | 22:19 |
LjL | okay i need to reiterate... -vox is not a dumping ground, as far as i know, especially not for just anything political | 22:20 |
LjL | on the other hand, politics related to the coronavirus are okay in *this* channel, as long as policies are discussed instead of just namecalling politicians (or each other) | 22:20 |
IndoAnon | whoops wrong chan, sorry | 22:29 |
ytlyv9 | pancakes | 22:31 |
Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:23 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Malaysia rounds up migrants as UN warns of crackdown on vulnerable: Somalia reports rapid rise in Covid-19 deaths; 98 people die in one New York nursing home; Singapore eases restrictions as second wave subsides → https://is.gd/srQPVW | 22:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2581 cases (now 3.5 million), +194 deaths (now 244028) since 49 minutes ago — US: +2342 cases (now 1.2 million), +154 deaths (now 67075) since 49 minutes ago — Massachusetts, US: +1952 cases (now 66263), +130 deaths (now 3846) since a day ago | 22:37 |
HeroRN | As bad as the testing rates are in some of the state prisons mentioned here, they pale in comparison to California, where prison officials have tested just over 1400 of the state's 118,000 people in prisons. | 22:42 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:01 UTC: Trump looks to replace HHS watchdog who identified crucial hospital supply shortages: The White House late Friday moved to oust an inspector general at the Department of Health and Human Services weeks after the official presented President Donald Trump with a report showing that hospitals responding to the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/iRCP7A | 23:07 |
YYZ | https://media.8kun.top/file_store/9d9b4432528df1481446bedebbfa54ac4514c226b662c56c861a561cce369bfe.jpg | 23:11 |
oriba | ?what?? (preprint) Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1 | 23:16 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:16 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Texas posts third straight day of 1,000 new cases as state reopens → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 23:22 |
HeroRN | https://reason.com/2020/05/01/covid-19-modeling-how-many-coronavirus-deaths-by-the-end-of-summer/ 175k US Deaths by 01/08 | 23:23 |
LjL | HeroRN, that is well above the upper confidence limit of https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america | 23:24 |
HeroRN | from what I am seeing by way of covid deniers, i'd bet on the upper interval | 23:30 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:31 UTC: /u/slakmehl: What Is ‘Covid Toe’? Maybe a Strange Sign of Coronavirus Infection - The New York Times → https://is.gd/Lf9AzK | 23:36 |
ubLXI | oriba: have you read through the paper? any sense in it? | 23:41 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: New York, New Jersey and Michigan saw 20,000 more deaths than average in March and April. These were on top of the deaths already accounted for by COVID-19 death counts. This leads researchers to believe the COVID-19 death count is actually much higher than is being reported. (10228 votes) | https://redd.it/gc9qol | 23:49 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 21:45 UTC: Covid2019: China deliberately destroyed evidence about start of coronavirus, report says | The Independent → https://is.gd/UBtJcX | 23:50 |
oriba | ubLXI: no did not read it, just skimmed through it and looked at some graphics. It just compares 4 countries( france, italy, spain, UK). Not sure if that makes sense. | 23:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2061 cases (now 3.5 million), +145 deaths (now 244173) since an hour ago — US: +1643 cases (now 1.2 million), +131 deaths (now 67206) since an hour ago — Pennsylvania, US: +1273 cases (now 50915), +125 deaths (now 2776) since 23 hours ago | 23:53 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:53 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Texas posts third straight day of 1,000 new cases as state reopens → https://is.gd/uFyovJ | 23:57 |
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