| nixonix | i wonder how correct is this map (may 29 - june 5): https://innovationorigins.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/casesweek29050506-01-01-01-2048x2048.png | 00:03 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | nixonix: At 2020-06-12 00:11:56 UTC, LjL told you: I *have* found Bergamo city (and province, if you want to add all the municipalities up) mortality data up to 30 April, I showed you, it's among the data given at https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/240401 and specifically https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/03/Tavola-riepilogativa-e-tracciato-record-30aprile.zip has a spreadsheet with all of the italian municipalities (Bergamo is a munic | 00:03 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: At 2020-06-12 00:12:49 UTC, LjL told you: province you need to look up the municipalities it's made of) - or alternatively there are "interactive graphs" at https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/241428 where you can compare with 2015-2019 mortality, again with the data ending April 30 | 00:03 |
| pyna | "As one poll in Pennsylvania found, nearly nine out of 10 Republicans trusted “the information you hear about coronavirus from medical experts” back in April. Now just about one in three does." https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/virus-will-win/612946/ | 01:11 |
| lagl95[m] | %cases mexico | 01:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for California, US: +3204 cases (now 146737), +38 deaths (now 4981) since 4 hours ago — Arkansas, US: +731 cases (now 11547), +5 deaths (now 176) since a day ago — South Africa: +3359 cases (now 61927), +70 deaths (now 1354) since a day ago — South Carolina, US: +729 cases (now 17170), +5 deaths (now 593) since a day ago | 01:14 |
| Brainstorm | lagl95[m]: In Mexico, there have been 133974 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 15944 deaths (11.9% of cases) as of 21 hours ago. 344375 tests were performed (38.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 4.0% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 14.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Mexico for time series data. | 01:14 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: By the end of this weekend more Americans will have died from COVID-19 than were killed in combat during World War One. (10909 votes) | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties | https://redd.it/h7s70f | 02:20 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Serology-informed estimates of SARS-COV-2 infection fatality risk in Geneva, Switzerland (80 votes) | https://osf.io/wdbpe/ | https://redd.it/h7kip6 | 02:50 |
| LjL | ↑ gives a pretty high IFR for 65+ olds | 03:51 |
| LjL | This may be a little silly but I miss a metro or tram ride | 05:27 |
| tinwhiskers | maybe you should go out an do some rioting under the guise of righteousness like other people who have been cooped up too long. | 05:29 |
| tinwhiskers | at least rioting is an outdoor activity :-/ | 05:31 |
| OuluBox | that or scare some fascists | 05:32 |
| RadioActive | %cases usa | 05:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Metropolitana, Chile: +11999 cases (now 124135), +323 deaths (now 2273) since 3 days ago — Assam, India: +1012 cases (now 3694), +4 deaths (now 8) since 5 days ago — Vaestra Goetaland, Sweden: +1624 cases (now 9752), +45 deaths (now 647) since 3 days ago — Lisbon, Portugal: +1887 cases (now 13222), +40 deaths (now 403) since 8 days ago | 05:37 |
| Brainstorm | RadioActive: In US, there have been 2.1 million confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 116825 deaths (5.5% of cases) as of 4 minutes ago. 25.5 million tests were performed (8.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 12.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 05:37 |
| OuluBox | https://officialblackwallstreet.com/black-wall-street-story/ | 05:39 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Influence of conflicts of interest on public positions in the COVID-19 era, the case of Gilead Sciences (80 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300627 | https://redd.it/h7gjht | 06:40 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Pre exposure Hydroxychloroquine use is associated with reduced COVID19 risk in healthcare workers (82 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.09.20116806v1 | https://redd.it/h7r53l | 06:46 |
| addmayo | ugh cases for my home state are increasing quickly. was 100-250 a day. now over 700 today alone. i feel like too many people here have sort of just... accepting the fact that the virus is here and they're just going to live with it regardless of the consequenses of more infections | 07:13 |
| addmayo | south carolina | 07:13 |
| ryouma | :( | 07:14 |
| addmayo | terrible social distacing and PPE habits here | 07:14 |
| stinkpot | where are you addmayo | 07:14 |
| addmayo | south carolina USA | 07:14 |
| stinkpot | addmayo i noticed a disturbing trend among relatives | 07:15 |
| stinkpot | when relatives pop over they seem to think they don't need to wear a mask | 07:15 |
| stinkpot | bias that family is somehow safer than general public | 07:15 |
| addmayo | my brother and his family are like that | 07:15 |
| stinkpot | enclosed spaces very dangerous | 07:15 |
| addmayo | every time they've visited they've never wore masks | 07:15 |
| stinkpot | it's some sort of bias. i wish i knew the official name of such bias | 07:16 |
| addmayo | and they've two kids, one 4 and one less than a year | 07:16 |
| ryouma | the us seems different from the rest of the world | 07:16 |
| stinkpot | yah addmayo i got several family members with young kids /babies | 07:16 |
| addmayo | yeah well we didn't get to be number one in infections because we followed scientists and doctors that's for sure | 07:16 |
| stinkpot | and recently they've visited the doctor office | 07:17 |
| addmayo | we listened to a tangerine | 07:17 |
| stinkpot | and they bring the kids over and they aren't wearing a mask | 07:17 |
| stinkpot | and i try to suggest to wear a mask and they shoot me down | 07:17 |
| addmayo | i know | 07:17 |
| stinkpot | and i don't wanna piss off family | 07:17 |
| stinkpot | it's tough | 07:17 |
| stinkpot | this must be going on all over USA | 07:18 |
| stinkpot | family bias | 07:18 |
| addmayo | i can relate. i dont have/plan on having children so my neice and nephew mean a lot to me | 07:18 |
| stinkpot | my family is cleaner than the general public kinda bias | 07:18 |
| ryouma | there shouldb e squirt guns with indelible ink that mean: you didn't wear a mask | 07:18 |
| addmayo | so i'm worried about them | 07:18 |
| ryouma | perhaps you can hand them out at the door | 07:18 |
| stinkpot | meanwhile i see in vietnam even babies are wearing masks | 07:19 |
| stinkpot | why can't usa be more disciplined like that | 07:19 |
| addmayo | because freedom | 07:19 |
| addmayo | and murica | 07:19 |
| addmayo | read; patriotic nonsense | 07:19 |
| addmayo | for some reason too many still think we're better than the rest of the world | 07:20 |
| addmayo | and we can do things our way and it's better | 07:20 |
| addmayo | backwards thinking shit | 07:20 |
| stinkpot | one of my relatives was using a mask before when he came over but now he said "we're past that" | 07:21 |
| stinkpot | i believe muricans also get manipulated by the news too much | 07:21 |
| addmayo | my father and i run our own business and fortunately ive been able to convince him to wear a mask at work around customers | 07:22 |
| stinkpot | they hear enough reopening themed new cycles and they think we're past the virus already | 07:22 |
| stinkpot | news cycles* | 07:22 |
| addmayo | its a business that gets pretty low foot traffic with the public so it isn't bad | 07:22 |
| addmayo | stinkpot i'm sure that has an impact | 07:23 |
| stinkpot | i noticed my father didn't start wearing a mask until it was recommended by politicians to do so. i started wearing one earlier and he didn't want to until a big org like the CDC recommended it | 07:23 |
| stinkpot | => too much belief in big institutions | 07:23 |
| addmayo | i started wearing one any time i had to go out since lockdowns started | 07:23 |
| addmayo | so early march maybe | 07:23 |
| stinkpot | i started wearing one before lockdowns started | 07:23 |
| addmayo | turns out i may have been infected, i need to get an antibody test | 07:24 |
| stinkpot | some ppl said they were scared to wear one because it would attract attention | 07:24 |
| addmayo | yeah its rediculous that some people think less of others if they wear a mask | 07:25 |
| addmayo | it's the dumbest shit | 07:25 |
| stinkpot | some ppl think they're gonna get jumped for wearing a mask | 07:37 |
| stinkpot | i mean back in february they did | 07:37 |
| addmayo | %cases South Carolina | 07:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Moscow, Russia: +1714 cases (now 22901), +49 deaths (now 3187) since 2 hours ago — Pakistan: +6472 cases (now 132405), +88 deaths (now 2551) since a day ago — Ukraine: +662 cases (now 30415), +10 deaths (now 880) since 21 hours ago — Metropolitana, Chile: +5559 cases (now 129694), +195 deaths (now 2468) since 2 hours ago | 07:48 |
| Brainstorm | addmayo: In South Carolina, US, there have been 17170 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 593 deaths (3.5% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 272128 tests were performed (6.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 07:48 |
| tinwhiskers | unfortunately mask wearing has become a partisan political issue with republicans refusing to wear them because it's part of the democrat hoax - all driven by a highly divisive president acting against the best interests of the people to his own advantage. | 07:53 |
| swift110 | hdy | 07:58 |
| tinwhiskers | hey swift110 | 07:58 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Mutated coronavirus shows significant boost in infectivity (81 votes) | https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200612-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html | https://redd.it/h81fvr | 09:17 |
| DroidY | %cases de | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | DroidY: In Delaware, US, there have been 10173 confirmed cases (1.1% of the population) and 414 deaths (4.1% of cases) as of 16 hours ago. 77694 tests were performed (13.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 10:09 |
| DroidY | %cases germany | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | DroidY: In Germany, there have been 187251 confirmed cases (0.2% of the population) and 8863 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 4.7 million tests were performed (4.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 10:09 |
| DroidY | %cases russia | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | DroidY: In Russia, there have been 520129 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 6829 deaths (1.3% of cases) as of 6 minutes ago. 14.2 million tests were performed (3.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 2.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Russia for time series data. | 10:09 |
| DroidY | %cases ukraine | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | DroidY: In Ukraine, there have been 30506 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 880 deaths (2.9% of cases) as of 6 minutes ago. 468172 tests were performed (6.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 5.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Ukraine for time series data. | 10:09 |
| DroidY | %cases china | 10:10 |
| Brainstorm | DroidY: In China, there have been 83075 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 4634 deaths (5.6% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 5.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=China for time series data. | 10:10 |
| DroidY | %cases spain | 10:12 |
| Brainstorm | DroidY: In Spain, there have been 290289 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 27136 deaths (9.3% of cases) as of 15 hours ago. 4.5 million tests were performed (6.5% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data. | 10:12 |
| DroidY | %cases italy | 10:12 |
| Brainstorm | DroidY: In Italy, there have been 236305 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 34223 deaths (14.5% of cases) as of 15 hours ago. 6.8 million tests were performed (3.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 4.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 16.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 10:12 |
| rplasmid | %cases australia | 10:32 |
| Brainstorm | rplasmid: In Australia, there have been 7294 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 102 deaths (1.4% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 1.8 million tests were performed (0.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 1.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia for time series data. | 10:32 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: 'She was always there’: A nurse who brightened the hospital ward died alone, stricken by covid | Lisa Ewald, 53, told friends she wasn’t allowed to wear a mask at the Detroit hospital where she worked (10202 votes) | https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/12/lisa-ewald-dead-coronavirus/ | https://redd.it/h7ysoa | 15:33 |
| SpearRaven | wasn’t allowed to wear a mask?!! .. how can that be?. Sorry but that has 'triggered' me | 15:38 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for North Macedonia: +194 cases (now 3895), +8 deaths (now 179) since a day ago — Poland: +440 cases (now 29017), +15 deaths (now 1237) since a day ago — Ethiopia: +251 cases (now 3166), +8 deaths (now 55) since a day ago — Pskov, Russia: +100 cases (now 1635), +3 deaths (now 19) since 10 hours ago | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 292950 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 41481 deaths (14.2% of cases) as of 22 hours ago. 6.4 million tests were performed (4.6% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 15:38 |
| oxalis | welcome to Texas... where we're basically fucked. | 17:35 |
| oxalis | our governer has this "damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!" approach to the pandemic. | 17:35 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: The D614G mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein reduces S1 Shedding and Increases Infectivity (80 votes) | https://www.scripps.edu/_files/pdfs/news-and-events/The%20D614G%20mutation%20in%20the%20SARS-CoV-2%20spike%20protein%20reduces%20S1.pdf | https://redd.it/h7zpo6 | 18:10 |
| josechullec | Chile, breaking news | 18:17 |
| josechullec | Change of government minister | 18:17 |
| LjL | minister for what? | 18:18 |
| josechullec | Preliminarily, the departure of the Health Minister Jaime Mañalich is confirmed, after it was detected that he reported a higher figure to the WOSM, against the one delivered in Chile, which would be extremely serious | 18:19 |
| josechullec | This way he avoids a constitutional accusation, a very serious crime and even jail for manipulating official figures | 18:19 |
| LjL | he reported a *higher* figure? what's this trend? Brazil is also no longer publishing figures because they claim state governments reported higher figures than real | 18:20 |
| josechullec | What happens in Chile is very serious, the press does not show it. Collapsed hospitals. Jaime Mañalich a few months ago pointed out that Chile has the best health system on the planet, when in reality it is not | 18:20 |
| josechullec | Sorry my Google Translate jeje | 18:20 |
| LjL | sure and Italy has the second best on the planet... after France... according to WHO data from some years ago | 18:20 |
| LjL | and look at Lombardy now, which incidentally was supposed to be the place with the best healthcare system *within* Italy | 18:21 |
| josechullec | I understand that in Chile, they report a much lower figure than that given to WHO, which would exceed 5,000 deaths | 18:21 |
| josechullec | Chile had many months to prepare in a better way. Unfortunately, only the communes on the political side of the government have been quarantined and have received more aid. The largest cities in the country only now have a sanitary cord! | 18:22 |
| josechullec | Consider that winter is just coming to the country. They lied and hid that the dead had other underlying diseases | 18:23 |
| josechullec | Today, politically is serious. The government lost total credibility | 18:23 |
| josechullec | In Chile it says "Save yourself who can" | 18:24 |
| LjL | if it is seasonal, winter coming will be an... "issue" | 18:25 |
| LjL | i kind of hope it isn't seasonal, because even in the northern hemisphere, i think if it "stops" during the summer, people will just get complacent and assume it's "over" | 18:26 |
| aradesh | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/three-big-studies-dim-hopes-hydroxychloroquine-can-treat-or-prevent-covid-19 | 18:54 |
| aradesh | how come all over europe, we're relaxing our lockdown measures, but we're not getting new spikes? | 18:57 |
| aradesh | it's a bit weird | 18:57 |
| swift110 | hmm | 18:57 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Seattle coronavirus survivor gets a $1.1 million, 181-page hospital bill | The Seattle Times (10724 votes) | https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/inspiring-story-of-seattle-mans-coronavirus-survival-comes-with-a-1-1-million-dollar-hospital-bill/ | https://redd.it/h86dja | 18:58 |
| nixonix | https://www.helsinki.fi/en/news/life-science-news/the-furin-cleavage-mystery-of-sars-cov-2-solved-we-discovered-an-alternative-receptor | 18:59 |
| nixonix | %title | 18:59 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.helsinki.fi: The furin-cleavage mystery of SARS-CoV-2 solved: we discovered an alternative receptor! | University of Helsinki | 18:59 |
| nixonix | %title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.07.137802v1 | 18:59 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: Neuropilin-1 facilitates SARS-CoV-2 cell entry and provides a possible pathway into the central nervous system | bioRxiv | 18:59 |
| nixonix | (not confirmed that ace2 wouldnt be necessary on cell surface, imo. but possibly) | 19:00 |
| nixonix | %title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.05.134114v1 | 19:00 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: Neuropilin-1 is a host factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection | bioRxiv | 19:01 |
| nixonix | %title https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/12/us/12reuters-health-coronavirus-science-graphic.html | 19:01 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nytimes.com: Virus Has Multiple Pathways Into Cells, Moderna Vaccine Clears Safety Hurdle in Mouse Study - The New York Times | 19:01 |
| LjL | aradesh, may be seasonality, may be mask use increasing (although i'm told masks are not really being used in the UK), may be the most densely populated places have already reached some degree of herd immunity, if the thing where immunity to *other* coronaviruses translates to some degree of immunity to this one is true | 19:02 |
| LjL | i hope it's not seasonality, but i suspect it is mostly seasonality | 19:02 |
| LjL | as josechullec was saying earlier for instance, Chile (where winter is coming now) is not doing well *at all* | 19:02 |
| LjL | the curve is one of the scariest you can see these days, and the amount of infections by population also, although i'm not sure about this thing by which they are either over or underreported (but i guess there's been scandals for both alleged things virtually anywhere) | 19:03 |
| LjL | aradesh, by the way the numbers in Italy (and in Lombardy in particular) the past couple of days are not reassuring at all, and *could* be the sign of a second spike coming, although it's honestly early to tell, but the government has already delayed some re-openings due to it | 19:04 |
| aradesh | there are definitely some people using masks in the UK | 19:04 |
| aradesh | maybe it's the big events being shut? like concerts, football matches | 19:06 |
| LjL | aradesh, i find it unlikely that would be enough. but in italy, indoors activities are still heavily restricted: you *have* to wear a mask, and they are still only letting people in stores in small numbers at a time | 19:08 |
| LjL | aradesh, but yeah i see your point, there are few places seeing a really obvious second spike despite re-opening a while ago. but for that matter, if you look at the global US curve, it's sort of very linear... why is it linear? exponential is bad but expected if things are going badly... flattening is good and expected if measures are working... but what gives us exactly linear? | 19:09 |
| LjL | aradesh, there's a recent "study" (and i use quotes because in my opinion there's not a lot of scientific substance in it) that sounds surprised at that, and i'm glad it does so i'm not alone | 19:09 |
| LjL | but my browser lost its tabs so maybe i'll get back to you with it in a month or so | 19:09 |
| LjL | aradesh, i was a pessimist, here it is https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117 | 19:11 |
| LjL | "Remarkably, the recent trends in the numbers of infections and fatalities in the world and in the United States exhibit striking linearity since the beginning of April (Fig. 1C)." | 19:11 |
| LjL | this study basically points at the masks as for the reason things got better | 19:11 |
| LjL | there is a lot of talk about masks being very useful in general | 19:11 |
| LjL | but why i think they *are* useful, again, i find this study has little substance | 19:12 |
| LjL | but it gave me pointers to older studies that i had neglected but that struck me now, like https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935120306472?via%3Dihub | 19:12 |
| LjL | %title | 19:12 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.sciencedirect.com: SARS-Cov-2RNA found on particulate matter of Bergamo in Northern Italy: First evidence - ScienceDirect | 19:12 |
| aradesh | interesting | 19:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Louisiana, US: +1288 cases (now 46283), +2 deaths (now 3004) since a day ago — Florida, US: +2625 cases (now 73596), +47 deaths (now 2928) since a day ago — North Carolina, US: +1428 cases (now 42844), +6 deaths (now 1127) since a day ago — Alabama, US: +891 cases (now 24601), +4 deaths (now 773) since 23 hours ago | 20:03 |
| LjL | Italy's numbers are bad again | 20:05 |
| LjL | more deaths, and more cases than yesterday while less than the day before | 20:05 |
| LjL | Italy: +346 cases (now 236651), +78 deaths (now 34301) since a day ago | 20:05 |
| LjL | now to see how many of those are Lombardy | 20:05 |
| LjL | few tests, too | 20:06 |
| LjL | Milan is picking up, almost 100 | 20:06 |
| LjL | aradesh, so much for now second peak ;( if it continues this way here | 20:07 |
| LjL | aradesh, you can already see it in Milan's graph, that it doesn't look like just *one* fluke https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/#box_3 | 20:08 |
| nixonix | looks like a small blip | 20:20 |
| LjL | to me it looks like it has picked up for the past three days, but the graph isn't great to read | 20:25 |
| nixonix | hard to say for sure. just some better infection chain tracing or a trend from some reopenings, like 1-2 weeks ago | 20:35 |
| nixonix | churchs opened there? | 20:37 |
| nixonix | it looked odd. churches seems to be the plural | 20:37 |
| LjL | nixonix, churches... i think they are open with social distancing rules too. "bouncer" is probably the only profession that is not at risk these days | 20:38 |
| LjL | i saw on TV some churches literally hired bouncers | 20:38 |
| nixonix | oh its that wild there | 20:39 |
| LjL | when the church is full you pray outside, or perhaps just chastise yourself for coming late, not sure | 20:39 |
| LjL | also they are having football matches again now, but without spectator (at least that) | 20:39 |
| nixonix | imo copy the current measures from finland and even sweden, that seems to have R_eff around 1. or if its going to start rising soon, then copy the measures used in may when it didnt | 20:45 |
| nixonix | to avoid all the unnecessary hassle. some adjustment might be needed for different local circumstances | 20:47 |
| LjL | nixonix, you think it's better to keep R around 1 than *below* 1? | 20:48 |
| nixonix | well in sweden its been rising in june, so if copying them, then copy may sweden not current... but prob the reason is, its spreading at other areas now, that have had more relaxed attitude | 20:49 |
| nixonix | i said even from sweden (if 1 is enough - it might be, if its better for economy - money is life too). in finland it has been around 0.7-0.85 for quite some time (according to officials), and anyways numbers been slowly lowering | 20:51 |
| nixonix | but who knows what will happen now when people are relaxing more, bars open with some limitations etc | 20:51 |
| nixonix | according to our health institute R_eff here is currently 0,70 – 0,80 - 2 days ago. but those are estimates, and their models are unrealistic, and it shouldnt be given for the whole country anyway, but by outbreak areas | 20:59 |
| nixonix | R_0, whats the use for it other than as a base for infection models? i thought about it after some recent discussion, although it wasnt exactly the same in different societies and areas, it also tells about what level of infections or vaccination coverage is needed for herd immunity | 21:01 |
| nixonix | and theres difference if the people dont care about the risk of infections at all (like they never knew theres a new epidemic), and in the situation where we are mostly back to normal, but still aware and careful. even situation before this epidemic and 5 or 10 years afterwards might be different | 21:02 |
| nixonix | at flu season many people are more careful than at other times. yeah difference between summer and wintertime behavior too, but prob also when theres a serious flu A epidemic at winter vs mild flu epidemic, behavior is at least somewhat different | 21:04 |
| nixonix | any subnational new infections map, that would be updated as regularly as possible? | 21:16 |
| nixonix | like here, but more up to date https://innovationorigins.com/is-europe-finally-free-of-corona-the-first-wave-seems-to-be-over/ | 21:16 |
| nixonix | for the whole europe, usa, and other areas too possibly (subnational, that is) | 21:17 |
| LjL | nixonix, wow, Sweden is really a different level from the rest of europe post-lockdown | 21:24 |
| LjL | anyway Covidly is still the source with most subnational things i know of, but the updates aren't great at all as you probably know. the map does have both total cases and new cases (for any given day, not on average), though | 21:27 |
| nixonix | from the map it looks like that. but their R_eff seemed to be around 1 till end of may, and the map isnt up to date, and it looks more gloomy than the situation (then), imo. because their active infections hadnt got close to zero, as in other countries mostly, and the numbers just remained the same | 21:28 |
| LjL | nixonix, well, their doubling rate is going down which isn't good, anyway if i showed most people that particular map i'd guess they conclude the lockdowns "worked" | 21:29 |
| nixonix | still imo showed that the measures and peoples behaving at stockholm area were enough to prevent growth. so just a little more would have been enough to reduce them - except the summer might have changed behavior | 21:29 |
| LjL | sweden was linear but now it's worse than linear, what happened? | 21:29 |
| nixonix | and then theres the other areas, where it has been in rise in sweden | 21:29 |
| nixonix | summer i think. and more relaxed news from the rest of the west, so people arent as careful anymore. not sure if theres been reduction of measures recently or not | 21:30 |
| LjL | well summer seems to be *helping* elsewhere (i.e. no obvious new spikes despite widespread re-openings) | 21:31 |
| LjL | if it's not helping, and it's just that the effects will be seen with a longer delay... then ouch. | 21:31 |
| nixonix | and the other areas effect in rise. the worst used to be stockholm city, then stochkholm county and some other regions in central sweden. now its rising most at gothenburg area it seems, but maybe somewhat on other areas too, not sure | 21:31 |
| ryouma | temperatures go to 115F+ here (with low humidity) and that does not seem to be stopping anything at all | 21:53 |
| ryouma | 46.1C | 21:54 |
| nixonix | high humidity with those temps, and people start dying | 21:59 |
| tinwhiskers | I still see nothing to suggest summer temperatures will have any noticeable effect. Far more likely imo is the more widespread use of masks since the first wave. | 21:59 |
| nixonix | An example of the threshold at which the human body is no longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat is a humidity level of 50% and a high heat of 46 °C (115 °F), as this would indicate a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F). | 22:00 |
| nixonix | humidity has meaning, droplets and aerosolized particles drop in ground faster (on surface humidity helps the virus last longer, though) | 22:01 |
| nixonix | but if the surface infections are just a small share, high temperature or even sun shouldnt help much | 22:01 |
| tinwhiskers | Surface contamination is unlikely to be a major source of spread compared to aerosols. Temperature and humidity are not important. | 22:02 |
| tinwhiskers | There's still the behavioral changes in people brought about by summer that may have some influence, but I don't believe the temperature aspect is anything more than a very minor factor. | 22:09 |
| tinwhiskers | *inconsequential factor | 22:11 |
| nixonix | influenza: In addition to the finding that low RH enhances aerosol influenza transmission, there is another common thread found throughout the diverse animal models: that aerosol viral infection rate drops under intermediate RH atmosphere. | 22:18 |
| nixonix | In this study, the morbidity of mice exposed to virus-containing atmosphere under various RHs at ∼22–24°C was examined. At intermediate RH (∼40–60%), 77.5% of subjected mice survived, even though they were exposed to atomized virus suspension enough to kill all subjected mice at 23% RH. Therefore, an ideal humidity for preventing aerosol respiratory viral transmission at room temperature appears to be between 40% and 60% RH | 22:19 |
| nixonix | in a table there, in tropical conditions (60% humidity or more), predominant transmission was direct and indirect contact - not airborne | 22:22 |
| nixonix | then there are those droplet studies showing they dont stay airborne as long with with high humidity | 22:22 |
| nixonix | so to me it seems strongly high humidity is good, unless it also increases contacts somehow (surface or direct human-to-human) | 22:23 |
| nixonix | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32196426/ | 22:24 |
| nixonix | https://www.pnas.org/content/117/22/11875 | 22:25 |
| nixonix | https://www.tu.berlin/en/research/themenportal-forschen/2020/mai/the-risk-of-infection-is-in-the-air/ | 22:25 |
| nixonix | %title | 22:25 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.tu.berlin: The Risk of Infection is in the Air | 22:25 |
| nixonix | The results indicate a striking correlation of the stability of winter viruses at low RH (20–50%), while the stability of summer or all-year viruses enhanced at higher RH (80%) | 22:28 |
| nixonix | btw by possible summer effect in sweden i thought people are more willing to go out, not temperature or humidity | 22:31 |
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