| LjL | "In one horrific incident in San Francisco, a special officer for the board of health shot a man who refused to wear a mask as well as two bystanders." (in 1918) | 00:15 |
|---|---|---|
| bin_bash | HA | 00:20 |
| bin_bash | that's what they should be doing now | 00:20 |
| LjL | nixonix, de-facto: don't know how true, but a comment on Lowe's page says "The monitoring board stopped the dexamethasone trial as the number of patients and statistics were robust enough to show efficacy. I’ve not seen any other trial stopped in this manner thus far." so maybe we (me, and at least one of you anyway) had the wrong impression that the trial was allowed to run its course | 00:29 |
| ryouma | early hiv trials were stopped in the us so taht the placebo group could get them | 00:42 |
| de-facto | hmm is Dexamethasone still licenced by some company? | 00:42 |
| ryouma | how long do patents go? | 00:43 |
| nixonix | yeah i figured they stopped it early, but when the results had probably been highly significant for ventilator patients for some time already before it, maybe they should have done it earlier, like a few weeks ago or something | 00:44 |
| nixonix | publish the results so far, then continue, with or without placebo arm. they do continue trials anyway after publishing early results, phase 1/2 results etc | 00:46 |
| LjL | nixonix, well how "highly"? i was under the understanding it had not been stopped early at all. if it has, then honestly i'm in no position to guess the best time to do it | 00:46 |
| de-facto | are you sure the trial, or just published promising preliminary results? | 00:47 |
| nixonix | stopped or not, its the publishing i was interested in (but i read somewhere that it was stopped too) | 00:47 |
| nixonix | they said it was "highly significant" non-ventilator extra oxygen patients. and more significant for ventilator patients -> so it must have been highly significant for ventilator patients earlier | 00:49 |
| de-facto | so why would they stop it (if there were no medical reasons to prevent harm)? | 00:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Goias, Brazil: +972 cases (now 12236), +6 deaths (now 252) since 8 hours ago — Ivory Coast: +384 cases (now 6063), +2 deaths (now 48) since 8 hours ago — Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: +379 cases (now 4164) since 8 hours ago — Ceara, Brazil: +3678 cases (now 84967), +212 deaths (now 5282) since 8 hours ago | 00:51 |
| nixonix | i dont know whats the practice, other than quoting somebody roughly "trials are stopped when results are significant enough, for benefits, or enough envidence of no benefits - compared to side effects or harm | 00:52 |
| nixonix | follow-up phase is another thing ofc | 00:54 |
| de-facto | still why not continue the trial to risk bulletproof results? | 00:55 |
| nixonix | maybe its because that knowledge of supposed benefits affects selection of patients (even if the placebo group would be dropped). and for placebo groub, could they deny the supposedly effective treatment from then now? | 00:57 |
| nixonix | not sure how they do that selection, when its done in random. do they ask, do you want to participate (without knowledge, which of the drugs or placebo they will get) until enough has been recruited, or do they have some kind of randomising in use for patients meeting the criteria, even before they are asked | 01:00 |
| de-facto | hmm possibly, yet i would have liked to see a bulletproof result | 01:01 |
| de-facto | i guess both | 01:01 |
| de-facto | they probably have some criteria for patients qualifying for participating in a study then ask if they (or their representative in law) would agree to participate in a double blinded study or such, unblinding should not be done until full data analysis was completed so no bias would be included | 01:03 |
| de-facto | problem could be if the trial substance may have significant and visible side effects so e.g. personal could see some titers dropping or such then it would be unblinded by that | 01:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Idaho, US: +92 cases (now 3632) since 9 hours ago — Nebraska, US: +195 cases (now 17226), +3 deaths (now 234) since 9 hours ago — New Hampshire, US: +72 cases (now 5436), +4 deaths (now 330) since 9 hours ago — Sudan: +280 cases (now 8020), +10 deaths (now 487) since 9 hours ago | 01:06 |
| nixonix | if the trial is small, in randomized the doctors cant decide who gets to participate. so i guess they have a list of patients meeting the criteria, then randomly picked people who are asked. and then picked more until enough participants | 01:08 |
| nixonix | now this wasnt small at all, but i guess similar method was still used | 01:08 |
| nixonix | otherwise the selection made by doctor might affect the results, even if the placebo and drug arms were randomized | 01:09 |
| nixonix | we could easily read about this instead of guessing, though.. | 01:09 |
| nixonix | short version: https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=39532 | 01:10 |
| de-facto | afaik only one non-directly involved pharmacist or such as source for trial substance or placebo should know until full analysis was finished then correlate the unblinded cases with the analysis results | 01:13 |
| de-facto | but then again, what if Dexamethasone got a visible side effect (which it is known to cause since its not a new substance), e.g. some titer dropping significantly in some routine tests, so doctors would immediately recognize when looking at such routine blood checks? | 01:15 |
| nixonix | this wasnt blinded, but open-label trial | 01:17 |
| de-facto | ah ok | 01:18 |
| nixonix | also there are variations, like zelen's design (for getting the consent, in this case) | 01:18 |
| de-facto | how do they make relative statements then? comparing to similar cases before using the trial substance? | 01:20 |
| LjL | there is a placebo arm, it's just known | 01:20 |
| de-facto | hmm | 01:20 |
| LjL | in a study like this you aren't focusing incredibly much on side effects and "perceived benefits", but on death or not | 01:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Venezuela: +236 cases (now 3386), +1 deaths (now 28) since 9 hours ago — Brazil: +4932 cases (now 960309), +155 deaths (now 46665) since 47 minutes ago — World: +5242 cases (now 8.4 million), +157 deaths (now 450582) since 16 minutes ago — California, US: +50 cases (now 162866), +1 deaths (now 5282) since 16 minutes ago | 01:21 |
| LjL | and i don't believe the placebo effect has been shown to cause or prevent death just yet! | 01:21 |
| nixonix | they do appreciate results got from single-blind or double-blind trials more. but i guess in this case it would have been impratical, unethical, or both | 01:22 |
| de-facto | so its like "we do everything we can to safe any life" comparing fatality of cases with the help of dexamethasone with such who get rejected to use it | 01:22 |
| de-facto | so if it was unethical to deny the usage of dexamethasone due to its first results being so significant, we now for sure should see a broad usage of it then | 01:24 |
| nixonix | wiki: "In 2008 a study concluded that the results of unblinded RCTs tended to be biased toward beneficial effects only if the RCTs' outcomes were subjective as opposed to objective" | 01:24 |
| nixonix | i suppose death or not isnt subjective, thus open-label was ok | 01:25 |
| LjL | anyway i didn't know about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelen%27s_design but it seems to me that it is "open-label" only to an extent, at least depending on the implementation specifics | 01:26 |
| LjL | it basically says that those receiving standard care (i.e. the placebo or control arm) may not even be aware that there is a trial going on with something "potentially better" | 01:26 |
| ryouma | did this oxymetazoline stuff ever lead anywhere? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1347861319311764 | 01:29 |
| nixonix | "Stories abound of investigators holding up sealed envelopes to lights or ransacking offices to determine group assignments in order to dictate the assignment of their next patient." | 01:29 |
| nixonix | new to me, oxymetazoline's possible benefits. i happen to have otrivin right now (the dual version) | 01:36 |
| ryouma | have not heard of either. but it could be just another paper that went nowhere. | 01:37 |
| nixonix | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128694/ | 01:38 |
| nixonix | %title | 01:39 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Oxymetazoline Inhibits and Resolves Inflammatory Reactions in Human Neutrophils | 01:39 |
| ryouma | anyway it was claimed in some press releases to address teh common cold and coronaviruses | 01:40 |
| nixonix | but would that be beneficial or detrimental in the phase with no highly elevated IL-6, no cytokine storm, no need for extra oxygen and so on? and a great or not idea to self-medicate with sniffles spray, when sars-2 | 01:40 |
| nixonix | could you find the link? | 01:40 |
| ryouma | lookign | 01:41 |
| ryouma | (btw claimed back then, not anythign recent) | 01:41 |
| nixonix | ah it was the same paper i linked, thought it was another | 01:43 |
| ryouma | all i am finding is rhinoviruses and influenza, not coronaviruses | 01:46 |
| ryouma | although i thought i saw coronaviruses there someplace | 01:47 |
| ryouma | (i'm getting stuffy nose and forgot whtever it was i did to reduce years of stuffy nose so i can breathe at night through nose and not get teeth dry. it wasn't oxymetazoline that stopped it but i just ran across that article. and apparently stuffy nose is a covid early symptom (although seems unlikely to be the case in my case as it has only been 2d).) | 01:47 |
| LjL | yikes, this group made (or designed) an app and suite of tools, mainly for the Spanish government, although it's not officially adopted by anyone yet i believe: https://github.com/open-coronavirus/open-coronavirus and it's nice, it's open, it's decentralized... well actually if you look beyond that, it looks very much like the Chinese approach, with QR codes shown on your screen that "app-police" can scan for information on your health and quarantine status | 01:49 |
| nixonix | Tüttenberg et al. (18) showed that the anti-inflam-matory action of OMZ is partially mediated by theinhibition of pro-inflammatory cytokines (interleukin-1β, tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-6, and inter-leukin-8) as well as reduced T-cell stimulatory capacityof dendritic cells, resulting in a repressed stimulation ofT cells. | 01:51 |
| nixonix | there are other stuff anti-inflammatory effects too, so it seems its pretty wide spectrum and could possibly be beneficial in cytokine storm phase | 01:54 |
| nixonix | to me it seems like this is like DEX, thats isnt well understood with all mechanisms of action. sounds good on paper, and perhaps potential. great find | 01:56 |
| nixonix | its a vasoconstrictor though | 01:58 |
| LjL | https://opencoronavirus.app/ ← scroll down to "Códigos QR"... China should sue :P | 02:00 |
| nixonix | https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/709224 | 02:01 |
| nixonix | %title | 02:01 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medscape.com: Nasal Spray May Reduce Viral Shedding and Rhinovirus Transmission | 02:01 |
| nixonix | Dr. Winther said the nasal spray might help in treating severe colds by preventing intranasal spreading of the virus or by preventing spread to the sinuses or lungs. | 02:01 |
| nixonix | the word antiviral was used in the article, hmm | 02:02 |
| nixonix | https://europepmc.org/article/med/17286808?javascript_support=no | 02:04 |
| nixonix | %title | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix, the URL could not be loaded | 02:04 |
| nixonix | Oxymetazoline modulates proinflammatory cytokines and the T-cell stimulatory capacity of dendritic cells | 02:04 |
| LjL | %title https://europepmc.org/article/med/17286808 | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, the URL could not be loaded | 02:04 |
| LjL | websites hate me | 02:05 |
| nixonix | OMZ: No in vitro effects were detected against enveloped RNA viruses, Parainfluenza Virus and Respiratory Syncytial Virus and against Adenovirus, a non-enveloped DNA-virus. In contrast, OMZ showed a specific inhibition of Human Rhinovirus (HRV) | 02:07 |
| nixonix | and sars-cov-2 is a lipid enveloped rna virus | 02:08 |
| nixonix | so im guessing here, this would be efficient enough for sars-2 cytokine storm phase, thus there are no texts found anybody even suggesting it. but we could speculate, if this would be beneficial in the phase when its only in nasopharynx, and would it prevent it spreading, especially in lungs | 02:10 |
| ryouma | i'm not following. you're saying phase 1 buyt only in nasopharyngeal area? | 02:13 |
| nixonix | this would not* be efficient enough ^ | 02:13 |
| ryouma | ok | 02:13 |
| ryouma | so phase 2 but only in that area | 02:14 |
| nixonix | maybe during the first symptoms, but that would be only trusting dr winthers words there, without additional research | 02:14 |
| nixonix | but most likely not for cytokine storm (because i would have found something about it, i think), although its immunosuppressing effects seem potentially beneficial | 02:15 |
| nixonix | %title https://www.pccarx.com/Blog/coronavirus-update-hand-washing-nasal-sprays-and-masks-what-research-is-saying | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.pccarx.com: THE PCCA BLOG | Coronavirus Update: Hand-Washing, Nasal Sprays an | 02:19 |
| nixonix | So far, there is no evidence supporting any type of nasal spray to effectively protect people from SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, in theory, it transmits by attaching to the epithelial lining of the nasal cavity or mucous membrane of the mouth or eyes, replicating there and further traveling down to the lungs. | 02:19 |
| nixonix | Nasally delivered antiviral therapy may be an option to prevent COVID-19 at the early onset of infection, especially for health care workers who are at risk of exposure. | 02:20 |
| nixonix | Researchers in the UK have recently proposed povidone iodine nasal spray as a prophylactic treatment for health care workers during COVID-19.14 There is strong evidence in vitro to support the efficacy of povidone iodine against SARS-CoV-2 and its safety in nasal application.15 Nasodine, a povidone-iodine nasal spray developed for treating URTIs by an Australian company, is currently in a phase III clinical trial. | 02:20 |
| nixonix | https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04347954 | 02:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Suriname: +19 cases (now 261) since an hour ago — Tolima, Colombia: +2 deaths (now 15) since a day ago — Panama: +635 cases (now 22597), +13 deaths (now 470) since 10 hours ago — Argentina: +1393 cases (now 35552), +27 deaths (now 913) since 10 hours ago | 02:21 |
| ryouma | what about spraying a surfactant? | 02:23 |
| ryouma | or is it already attached? | 02:23 |
| LjL | probably unpleasant? | 02:23 |
| ryouma | i already spray sorbic acid, dunno if that would make it worse | 02:23 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 02:48 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 299251 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 42153 deaths (14.1% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 7.1 million tests were performed (4.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 02:48 |
| Jigsy | Soon! | 02:48 |
| Jigsy | I wonder if being excited that's going to hit 300,000 makes me a bad person. | 02:49 |
| LjL | uh, let's say it probably doesn't contribute to making you a good person | 02:56 |
| PlanckWalk | That's either a death rate vastly higher than most other places, or testing that is worse than a random sample. | 03:17 |
| PlanckWalk | If the IFR was 1.4% in the UK (pretty close to the upper bounds found so far), then at least 5% of the population were infected. But only 4.2% tests were positive. | 03:20 |
| ryouma | Jigsy: are you in .jp? | 03:20 |
| Jigsy | Ｎｏ． | 03:20 |
| Jigsy | No.* | 03:20 |
| LjL | how appropriate to use fullwidth chars for that answer | 03:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guatemala: +545 cases (now 11251), +14 deaths (now 432) since 11 hours ago — Mexico: +4930 cases (now 159793), +770 deaths (now 19080) since 11 hours ago — World: +6138 cases (now 8.4 million), +784 deaths (now 451421) since an hour ago — US: +615 cases (now 2.2 million) since an hour ago | 03:21 |
| ryouma | my guess is he tried answering cleverly and gave up partway through :) | 03:21 |
| LjL | PlanckWalk, upper bounds found so far, as in... taking numbers from countries where we think there's been a lot of testing, and then adding some anyway? | 03:22 |
| PlanckWalk | Yes, that and a few other things | 03:23 |
| LjL | well except there may be a correlation (maybe!) between places that can test extensively, and places that can treat and avoid death in many cases | 03:23 |
| LjL | i don't think 1.4% is a reasonable upper bound for places like the UK or Italy | 03:23 |
| LjL | or at least hard-hit areas within those | 03:24 |
| LjL | it's *possible* the death rate will turn out to be lower than 1.4%, for sure, but i don't think a higher death rate can be ruled out | 03:24 |
| Jigsy | LjL: Sorry, was talking to someone on a Japanese chatroom. | 03:24 |
| Jigsy | Forgot to unset IME. | 03:24 |
| Jigsy | Totally not deliberate! | 03:25 |
| PlanckWalk | Yes, I suppose it could be higher if hospitals are turning away patients | 03:26 |
| ryouma | Jigsy: the only freenode ja- or jp-related chatroom i know was not a kind or pleasant place. i hope there are more? | 03:26 |
| Jigsy | It's not on IRC. | 03:26 |
| ryouma | ah | 03:26 |
| Jigsy | One of those ye old websites from yesteryear. | 03:26 |
| Jigsy | olde* | 03:26 |
| LjL | PlanckWalk, well, hospitals have, in practice, albeit anecdotically, turned away patients in both the UK and Italy, if you watch... interviews with patients, and sometimes with doctors. it's not acknowledged very openly by official sources but is that surprising? | 03:27 |
| PlanckWalk | No, not very surprising | 03:27 |
| LjL | chances are a *substantial* number of patients have been told to "just stay home" when they actually needed hospitalization | 03:27 |
| PlanckWalk | I did hear a great amount of that in New York | 03:28 |
| PlanckWalk | As in, read articles about it | 03:28 |
| PlanckWalk | Even so, the testing positive % is very much lower than I would expect given the likely prevalence. | 03:33 |
| PlanckWalk | Hmm, I guess it's a time-dependent thing. | 03:34 |
| PlanckWalk | When most of the active cases were about, they had not enough tests. Now that they have more tests, there are fewer active cases. | 03:34 |
| de-facto | also keep in mind that tests may not be sensitive enough (antibody fades of exponentially with time, antigen may be not present in pharynx anymore) to find older cases or not specific enough to separate low prevalence SARS-CoV-2 from other CoVs (antibodies) or false positives (e.g. contamination with antigens) | 03:36 |
| de-facto | so every entity got some error bars strongly depending on the real prevalence in the sampling set | 03:37 |
| LjL | de-facto, we're talking PCR tests, that's what the bot posts | 03:39 |
| LjL | PlanckWalk, so the truth is somewhere in the middle, but we still don't know where | 03:39 |
| LjL | i mean | 03:39 |
| LjL | %cases Lombardy | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Lombardy, Italy, there have been 92060 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 16466 deaths (17.9% of cases) as of 11 hours ago. 196302 tests were performed (46.9% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardy for time series data. | 03:39 |
| LjL | okay maybe not Lombardy | 03:39 |
| LjL | %cases Italy | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there have been 237828 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 34448 deaths (14.5% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 6.8 million tests were performed (3.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 4.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 16.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 03:39 |
| LjL | 3.5% positive is due to tests in recent times being largely negative (less than 1% positive) | 03:40 |
| LjL | but it touched 30% or so, from memory | 03:40 |
| LjL | also i think the Lombardy data are not *that* scary, it's just Covidly having bad data, surely Lombardy hasn't run just 200k tests if Italy has run 7 million | 03:41 |
| de-facto | PCR tests strongly depend on the sampling method, e.g. pharyngeal or nasal swap already may be negative while lower respiratory secrets may (e.g. from lungs) may be still positive or even later faeces may test positive in PCR | 03:42 |
| LjL | PlanckWalk, https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/#box_6 shows we touched 46% positive although that was probably a statistical anomaly, but we definitely passed 30%. and consider those are *total* tests, not tests just on separate individuals, so they include repeated tests (you can click on "Trend persone testate" to exclude repeat tests, but that figure was only made available later, so it's a shorter graph) | 03:44 |
| de-facto | also PCR tests have a (quite low i guess) false positive rate (contamination in the process?) so if real prevalence in a sampling set would become comparable (e.g. due to including lots of negative cases) to that false positive rate their predictive value would become unreliable | 03:45 |
| de-facto | have they ever "tested" the PCR tests with a double blinded hidden test set in the routine tests to compare how well labs can avoid contamination with their procedures? then it could be compared to the ratio of positive tests to give the test procedure a reliance value (independent of the error by where/when probes were taken) | 03:56 |
| de-facto | i am curious which kind of differences there are between different testing procedures or countries or labs | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Honduras: +643 cases (now 10299), +6 deaths (now 336) since 12 hours ago — Bolivia: +802 cases (now 20685), +20 deaths (now 679) since 12 hours ago — World: +1510 cases (now 8.4 million), +27 deaths (now 451448) since an hour ago — S. Sudan: +19 cases (now 1795), +1 deaths (now 31) since 12 hours ago | 04:21 |
| jolenne | so in 2 weeks if Florida new cases going to be 4000/day? | 04:52 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Arizona Sheriff Who Refused to Enforce Lockdown Restrictions Has COVID-19 (10743 votes) | https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/arizona-sheriff-wouldnt-enforce-lockdown-has-covid-19-mark-lamb-pinal-county-11476330 | https://redd.it/hb3v90 | 05:23 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection (81 votes) | https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471 | https://redd.it/hb2fio | 05:23 |
| LjL | and again | 05:29 |
| LjL | that's an Italian study that suggests that asymptomatic individuals may be around 50% or so, not things like 10x as many as symptomatic ones as often touted | 05:29 |
| LjL | 4,326 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 69.1% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 66.7-71.4%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.9% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk. | 05:29 |
| ryouma | testosterone goes down with age. has that factor beenr emoved? | 05:33 |
| ryouma | how long were they asymptomatic? | 05:33 |
| ryouma | 1/2 are asymptomatic at any given time? that's still huge. | 05:35 |
| LjL | ryouma, why would it be removed? | 05:35 |
| LjL | asymptomatic throughout the course of their illness | 05:35 |
| LjL | and it's 36.1%, i was just using 50% as a round figure, since the Vo' study, also in Italy, but conducted differently, concluded 43% | 05:36 |
| LjL | i believe these numbers much more than i believe "10x, 100x" numbers | 05:36 |
| LjL | which are usually based on serological studies with unclear specificity of the antibody tests used | 05:36 |
| LjL | and headlines, like in NYC | 05:37 |
| LjL | anyway 1/2 asymptomatic is only "huge" in terms of there being many who can infect | 05:37 |
| LjL | it's definitely not "huge" in terms of "oh, almost everybody has likely been infected already and we're approaching herd immunity" that some circles propound | 05:37 |
| ryouma | i was asking about infection risk | 05:39 |
| LjL | the study is not at all about infection risk | 05:39 |
| LjL | the study looks at those who have been infected, and asks the question "once you've been infected, what are the chances you're asymptomatic the whole time, what are the chances you get symptoms, and what are the chances you get serious disease?" | 05:40 |
| ryouma | i merely meant, what degree does t play in the age factor for men | 05:40 |
| ryouma | ok | 05:40 |
| LjL | i don't know because the study does not look at this and i think no study can look at this because we have no idea how many people are infected in general | 05:40 |
| LjL | this study shows that the age factor plays a fundamental role *in those infected* | 05:41 |
| LjL | so my hunch would be that chances of infection don't change much with age (but it's just a hunch, and probably wrong with children), but severity of infection does | 05:41 |
| LjL | (and that's not a hunch, that's what the study shows) | 05:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ukraine: +752 cases (now 33986), +10 deaths (now 953) since 15 hours ago — Chile: +36179 cases (now 220628) since 6 hours ago — World: +43886 cases (now 8.5 million), +167 deaths (now 451615) since 3 hours ago — Pakistan: +5358 cases (now 160118), +118 deaths (now 3093) since 15 hours ago | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Metropolitana, Chile: +32230 cases (now 180532), +180 deaths (now 3114) since 15 hours ago — Choco, Colombia: +108 cases (now 823), +1 deaths (now 22) since 5 hours ago — Sucre, Colombia: +32 cases (now 272), +1 deaths (now 12) since 5 hours ago — Norrbotten, Sweden: +56 cases (now 787), +3 deaths (now 59) since 15 hours ago | 07:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Afghanistan: +463 cases (now 27337), +42 deaths (now 546) since 16 hours ago — World: +576 cases (now 8.5 million), +42 deaths (now 451657) since 39 minutes ago — Israel: +111 cases (now 19894) since 7 hours ago — Cambodia: +1 cases (now 129) since 3 days ago | 08:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Slovenia: +8 cases (now 1511) since 19 hours ago — Russia: +7790 cases (now 561091), +182 deaths (now 7660) since 19 hours ago — Armenia: +665 cases (now 18698), +7 deaths (now 309) since 19 hours ago — Oman: +739 cases (now 26818), +3 deaths (now 119) since 19 hours ago | 11:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +1331 cases (now 42762), +63 deaths (now 2339) since 19 hours ago — Iowa, US: +154 cases (now 24616), +2 deaths (now 677) since 10 hours ago — World: +1530 cases (now 8.5 million), +65 deaths (now 452026) since 20 minutes ago — US: +154 cases (now 2.2 million), +2 deaths (now 119943) since 20 minutes ago | 11:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for El Salvador: +134 cases (now 4200) since 5 hours ago — Romania: +320 cases (now 23080), +22 deaths (now 1473) since 20 hours ago — Dem. Rep. Congo: +92 cases (now 5192), +1 deaths (now 116) since 11 hours ago — World: +701 cases (now 8.5 million), +23 deaths (now 452049) since 40 minutes ago | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Martinique: +19 cases (now 221) since 12 days ago — Kuwait: +541 cases (now 38074), +2 deaths (now 308) since 21 hours ago — Iran: +2596 cases (now 197647), +87 deaths (now 9272) since 21 hours ago — Belarus: +625 cases (now 56657), +7 deaths (now 331) since 21 hours ago | 13:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +671 cases (now 7848), +2 deaths (now 22) since 21 hours ago — Denmark: +40 cases (now 12334), +2 deaths (now 600) since 21 hours ago — Austria: +20 cases (now 17223), +1 deaths (now 688) since 21 hours ago — World: +731 cases (now 8.5 million), +5 deaths (now 452166) since 20 minutes ago | 13:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Benin: +25 cases (now 597), +2 deaths (now 11) since 22 hours ago — Saudi Arabia: +4757 cases (now 145991), +48 deaths (now 1139) since 22 hours ago — Sweden: +1481 cases (now 56043), +12 deaths (now 5053) since 22 hours ago — Portugal: +417 cases (now 38089), +1 deaths (now 1524) since 22 hours ago | 14:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +213 cases (now 4257), +10 deaths (now 117) since 15 hours ago — Qatar: +1267 cases (now 84441), +4 deaths (now 86) since 23 hours ago — Virginia, US: +463 cases (now 56238), +3 deaths (now 1586) since 23 hours ago — North Macedonia: +182 cases (now 4664), +6 deaths (now 216) since 23 hours ago | 15:50 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 16:55 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 300469 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 42288 deaths (14.1% of cases) as of 6 minutes ago. 7.1 million tests were performed (4.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 16:55 |
| Jigsy | Hey, we did it. | 16:55 |
| Jigsy | And yet the UK still feels the need to remove restrictions... | 16:55 |
| Urchin[emacs] | %cases croatia | 16:56 |
| Brainstorm | Urchin[emacs]: In Croatia, there have been 2269 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 107 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 70712 tests were performed (3.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data. | 16:56 |
| Jigsy | Though I guess herd immunity was the long term goal. | 17:00 |
| LjL | Jigsy, when Italy lifted the restrictions the situation wasn't much different. we do have to keep in mind that while we don't want people to get ill, they should not starve either. but then, in Italy there are still rules on masks and amount of people in public places, while i hear in the UK it's a bit of a free for all... | 17:00 |
| Jigsy | The UK had shopping during lockdown anyway. | 17:00 |
| Jigsy | Which was fine. | 17:00 |
| Jigsy | But now they're reopening non-essential stores, people can meet, they want to get rid of the 2m rule. | 17:01 |
| LjL | as if anyone cares about the 2m rule | 17:01 |
| pwr22 | Local club is looking forward to re-opening on the 4th | 17:02 |
| pwr22 | Of July | 17:02 |
| Jigsy | LjL: I do. | 17:03 |
| Jigsy | But that's only because I hate people... | 17:03 |
| Jigsy | ...and wish they'd keep their distance. | 17:03 |
| Jigsy | :D | 17:03 |
| Urchin[emacs] | well, looks like I should stop bragging with my country's results | 17:05 |
| Urchin[emacs] | 11 new cases in a day, 3 new cases yesterday | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Florida, US: +3207 cases (now 85926), +40 deaths (now 3061) since 16 hours ago — French Guiana: +204 cases (now 1758) since a day ago — Moldova: +374 cases (now 13106), +6 deaths (now 444) since 5 hours ago — US: +3581 cases (now 2.2 million), +65 deaths (now 120020) since an hour ago | 17:06 |
| LjL | Jigsy, right, you're probably not going to *stop* respecting it just because they "cancel" it, so it doesn't count | 17:06 |
| LjL | the 1m/2m rule makes sense as a matter of policy to decide how public transport and other open to the public spaces should be arranged | 17:06 |
| LjL | assuming they shouldn't just be closed | 17:06 |
| LjL | i don't think it makes a lot of sense as a rule for the people to follow, because they won't | 17:06 |
| LjL | if anything, a portion of them will perceive the need to dodge others some more, but they'll probably do it regardless of the rule being present | 17:07 |
| Jigsy | %cases World | 17:11 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In World, there have been 8.5 million confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 452590 deaths (5.3% of cases) as of 8 minutes ago. 131.8 million tests were performed (6.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 9.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 17:11 |
| Urchin[emacs] | #cases french guiana | 17:11 |
| Urchin[emacs] | %cases french guiana | 17:11 |
| Brainstorm | Urchin[emacs]: In French Guiana, there have been 1758 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 5 deaths (0.3% of cases) as of 8 minutes ago. 277 tests were performed (634.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=French%20Guiana for time series data. | 17:11 |
| Urchin[emacs] | I thought French Guiana was fine, they relaxed the measures there | 17:14 |
| nb_ | %cases indiana | 17:15 |
| Brainstorm | nb_: In Indiana, US, there have been 41013 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 2475 deaths (6.0% of cases) as of 16 hours ago. 371182 tests were performed (11.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 17:15 |
| LjL | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2MmX2U2V3c | 17:28 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: YouTube | 17:28 |
| LjL | sigh. "Fauci ADMITS LIVE government lied about masks to preserve supplies" | 17:28 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, ↑ | 17:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Arizona, US: +2519 cases (now 43443), +32 deaths (now 1271) since 17 hours ago — Alabama, US: +894 cases (now 28206), +20 deaths (now 810) since 17 hours ago — US: +3651 cases (now 2.2 million), +55 deaths (now 120075) since 33 minutes ago — Nevada, US: +234 cases (now 12076), +2 deaths (now 475) since 17 hours ago | 17:36 |
| nixonix | it seems offloop is missing most finland's identified cases. finnish health institute THL announces wrong numbers that miss most of new cases, so perhaps they are used, and then those that were missed, are never added from backlogs? | 17:49 |
| LjL | nixonix, i don't think previous days are ever updated, but it should still show up on new days, if only as jumps... but, "most"? do you mean there's a lot more than 7000 total? | 17:51 |
| LjL | nixonix, de-facto: there's a new study out from lombardy that i think is interesting, it established how many infected are asymptomatic, and the number, while much lower than many estimates from (dubious?) antibody tests, it consistent with the 43% from the Vo' study https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471 | 17:52 |
| nixonix | it shows row of 4,4,5 from the last few days, when i know there were more cases couple of days ago | 17:54 |
| nixonix | i try to find real numbers somewhere and compare, if some of those will never be added in the data thats used... | 17:55 |
| LjL | well i don't know, the numbers shown are similar even if you add &legacy=yes which gets the data from JHU+Worldometers instead of Covidly, so if anything multiple sites are getting it wrong | 17:55 |
| nixonix | i guess what means, if the total numbers are close enough. that would show if those missed will be added later, unless the problem is very recent | 17:56 |
| nixonix | means=matters (we usually use one word here for both, so err in translation is common) | 17:57 |
| LjL | 66 dead in Italy today, they keep going up | 17:59 |
| LjL | and the positives aren't going down either | 17:59 |
| nixonix | ok, it seems backlogs are added. offloop only misses 2 from total that our THL says | 18:00 |
| nixonix | so the problem seems to be only with delay, that is lately been bad, and therefore media reports "0 new cases", "only 4 new cases" | 18:02 |
| nixonix | is=has (again, the same word often used here) | 18:02 |
| nixonix | they allowed buffets now | 18:03 |
| nixonix | town in northern sweden: https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-06-17-g%C3%A4llivare-infectious-disease-doctor--%22at-par-with-stockholm-when-it-was-worst%22.HkZXbaPDaU.html | 18:05 |
| nixonix | ^ Gällivare infectious disease doctor: "At par with Stockholm when it was worst" | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Montana, US: +25 cases (now 655) since 17 hours ago — Indiana, US: +425 cases (now 41438), +16 deaths (now 2491) since 17 hours ago — Dominican Rep.: +270 cases (now 24375), +1 deaths (now 634) since 17 hours ago — Canada: +293 cases (now 100146), +45 deaths (now 8299) since 17 hours ago | 18:06 |
| nixonix | they are trying to stop all bus traffic to Gällivare/Jällivaara now | 18:07 |
| nixonix | something never seen in sweden is going on there now | 18:07 |
| Alex1138[m] | is sweden still really bad? | 18:09 |
| nixonix | its spiralling currently | 18:09 |
| nixonix | used to be stable R_eff for a while, but not anymore https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Germany;France;Belgium;Sweden;Netherlands;Austria;Denmark;Finland;Greece&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 18:12 |
| nixonix | i wonder if stockholm is still stable (city or county), and is it only other areas, that around gothenburg, that do it | 18:14 |
| nixonix | like* around | 18:14 |
| nixonix | ooh, deaths started to spike too in sweden now. as expected, when the stable period stopped around end of may. spike also in denmark, new cases, but may be backlogs added | 18:16 |
| nixonix | i mean germany (denmark also been a bit in rise though) | 18:16 |
| nixonix | i guess it helps when the west has one country like sweden to show us what not to do | 18:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for China: +1092 cases (now 84385), +4 deaths (now 4638) since 15 hours ago — Georgia (US), US: +224 cases (now 60254), +12 deaths (now 2587) since 17 hours ago — Wisconsin, US: +2 cases (now 23456), +1 deaths (now 713) since 17 hours ago — Canada: +236 cases (now 100382) since 20 minutes ago | 18:21 |
| nixonix | %data stockholm | 18:23 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: In Stockholm, Sweden, there have been 16492 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 2251 deaths (13.6% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Stockholm for time series data. | 18:23 |
| nixonix | offloop seems to miss populations of swedish regions, so we cant use "By population". could they be added tinwhiskers because the attention is turning now to sweden fast | 18:26 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Deep mutational scanning of SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain reveals constraints on folding and ACE2 binding (82 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.17.157982v1 | https://redd.it/hbbl7w | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mayotte: +157 cases (now 2383), +1 deaths (now 29) since 16 minutes ago — New York, US: +21225 cases (now 406367), +107 deaths (now 31046) since 16 minutes ago — US: +82278 cases (now 2.2 million), +2443 deaths (now 120160) since 11 hours ago — World: +402004 cases (now 8.6 million), +17447 deaths (now 453184) since 11 hours ago | 18:36 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Kamada Announces Availability of its Plasma-Derived Hyperimmune IgG Therapy for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) for Compassionate Use Treatment in Israel (80 votes) | https://www.kamada.com/news/kamada-announces-availability-of-its-plasma-derived-hyperimmune-igg-therapy-for-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-for-compassionate-use-treatment-in-israel/ | https://redd.it/hb3ei9 | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iraq: +1463 cases (now 25717), +83 deaths (now 856) since 18 hours ago — Chile: +4475 cases (now 225103), +226 deaths (now 3841) since 12 hours ago — Ecuador: +607 cases (now 49097), +80 deaths (now 4087) since 18 hours ago — New York, US: +563 cases (now 406930), +37 deaths (now 31083) since 32 minutes ago | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malawi: +20 cases (now 592), +2 deaths (now 8) since 17 hours ago — Ireland: +14 cases (now 25355), +4 deaths (now 1714) since 18 hours ago — Pennsylvania, US: +12 cases (now 84669), +1 deaths (now 6423) since 16 minutes ago — US: +67 cases (now 2.2 million), +7 deaths (now 120230) since 16 minutes ago | 19:21 |
| LjL | for the first time in a long while today, the number of ICU patients in Italy went up instead of down | 19:22 |
| bin_bash | :( | 19:23 |
| de-facto | hmm but daily new cases/deaths still look quite low in Italy | 19:28 |
| LjL | de-facto, deaths have gone up quite a bit today, and new cases are increasingly concentrated in Lombardy | 19:29 |
| LjL | and the graph no longer looks like it's flattening, but instead it looks like it has settled on some (admittedly lowish) linearity | 19:29 |
| de-facto | in regards to the ICUs: maybe they just utilize ICU beds for other (more routine) cases again? | 19:29 |
| LjL | in some other places where that happened, there was a second spike later | 19:29 |
| LjL | de-facto, i'm talking about *COVID* patients in ICU, not general ICU bed occupation | 19:30 |
| de-facto | oh ok just wanted to make sure | 19:30 |
| LjL | anyway we're talking single digits | 19:30 |
| LjL | that might be the least concerning thing | 19:30 |
| LjL | but we have more deaths than we should, look at spain | 19:30 |
| Haley[mt][m] | %cases usa | 19:30 |
| Brainstorm | Haley[mt][m]: In US, there have been 2.2 million confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 120230 deaths (5.4% of cases) as of 11 minutes ago. 26.2 million tests were performed (8.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 11.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 19:30 |
| de-facto | in Germany too, spike due to that slaughterhouse cluster they uncovered | 19:32 |
| genevino | are you referring to the demonstrations? | 19:34 |
| genera | no | 19:35 |
| genera | one slaughterhouse with 400 workers | 19:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Eritrea: +11 cases (now 142) since 19 hours ago — North Dakota, US: +27 cases (now 3193), +1 deaths (now 75) since 19 hours ago — Pennsylvania, US: +44 cases (now 84713), +4 deaths (now 6427) since 17 minutes ago — US: +166 cases (now 2.2 million), +8 deaths (now 120238) since 18 minutes ago | 19:37 |
| de-facto | tönnies slaughterhouse in gütersloh which had a big cluster of 657 cases in their employees | 19:38 |
| de-facto | 7000+ quarantined | 19:38 |
| LjL | it's confusing | 19:39 |
| LjL | there are these clusters where "everyone" gets infected from one cases | 19:39 |
| LjL | and then there's thing like that hairdresser who turned out positive, but didn't infect a single customer | 19:39 |
| LjL | but again on the other hand, that choir where pretty much everyone got infected from a single case | 19:39 |
| LjL | yes, you can explain it in various ways, in the choir they were breathing a lot, while the hairdresser might have worn a mask and rarely faced his customers | 19:40 |
| LjL | but it's still a bit... in extremes | 19:40 |
| de-facto | yes indeed circumstances seem to matter quite a lot | 19:40 |
| genera | and it is unclear what the choirs did besides singing | 19:42 |
| de-facto | possibly even weather may matter due to people behaving differently, e.g. spending time outdoors in the sun or meeting indoors etc | 19:42 |
| genera | did we have positive hairdressers in .de ? | 19:43 |
| genera | or any EU | 19:43 |
| de-facto | i guess before the lift of the lockdown for hairdressers their prevalence would be similar to comparable demographic group | 19:45 |
| de-facto | if their hygiene concepts were effective that should not have changed much, yet if not they possibly may be overexposed in prevalence due to being one central spot where people visit frequently | 19:46 |
| de-facto | not sure if there is data available explicitly for those, but in principle it should be the same mechanism for all groups for which restrictions where lifted, e.g. children with schools reopening etc | 19:47 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: GLUCOCOVID: A controlled trial of methylprednisolone in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia (80 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.17.20133579v1 | https://redd.it/hbcj40 | 19:47 |
| de-facto | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20076687v1 | 19:56 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Wear a mask! Houston Mayor plans to mandate face masks as COVID-19 case surge (10138 votes) | https://thenewsspan.in/wear-a-mask-houston-mayor-plans-to-mandate-face-masks-as-covid-19-case-surge/ | https://redd.it/hbditj | 20:05 |
| ubLIX | LjL: i think the hairdresser story involved 2 hairdressers, both of whom were infected, and both of whom wore masks; failed to infect 140 customers | 20:08 |
| ubLIX | :buffer 14 | 20:08 |
| ubLIX | oop | 20:08 |
| LjL | well either masks are *very* effective, or there's something we miss about transmission | 20:08 |
| LjL | ubLIX, also, good to know that "Fauci ADMITS LIVE government lied about masks to preserve supplies" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2MmX2U2V3c | 20:09 |
| de-facto | i would suspect that aerosol transmission will turn out to contribute more than we initially thought, e.g. that air exchange/hygiene indoors may matter more than we thought | 20:18 |
| tinwhiskers | nixonix: yeah, I'll revisit the population data thing soon. | 20:29 |
| nixonix | nice | 20:30 |
| tinwhiskers | I have a bit of a fundamental design flaw in that regard but I can make it a bit better anyway | 20:30 |
| nixonix | there are not many swedish regions that currently offer regional cases data it seems, but its still better than nothing, especially if those areas are currently rising in new cases | 20:32 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, what's wrong with it? | 20:34 |
| LjL | mostly what's wrong with your site in my view currently is that Covidly data can be REALLY bad, unfortunately | 20:34 |
| nixonix | lisbon seems to miss population too. i think it was deep red in subnational new cases map, so would be interesting to follow | 20:35 |
| tinwhiskers | well, I only store the populations using a single name (I was only doing countries initially), so anywhere there is a clash between country name and region name or two countries with the same region name that now causes a problem. Georgia was the first example I struck and I worked around it by disambiguating the name of one. | 20:35 |
| LjL | ah | 20:36 |
| tinwhiskers | but I don't know to what extent I'll have that problem if I do all the regions. I'll see | 20:36 |
| LjL | Georgia is a pain | 20:36 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Genome-wide CRISPR screen reveals host genes that regulate SARS-CoV-2 infection (80 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.16.155101v1 | https://redd.it/hbcs98 | 20:36 |
| nixonix | identified cases in portugal has been rising since may 12 | 20:36 |
| LjL | Spain is reopening borders with all of the EU shortly... except Portugal | 20:37 |
| nixonix | also often there are both cities and counties/regions with similar name. something to consider, if city data will be added | 20:38 |
| Arsanerit | %cases north macedonia | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In North Macedonia, there have been 4664 confirmed cases (0.2% of the population) and 216 deaths (4.6% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 47793 tests were performed (9.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 10.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=North%20Macedonia for time series data. | 20:38 |
| Arsanerit | %cases eswatini | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In Eswatini, there have been 586 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 4 deaths (0.7% of cases) as of 4 minutes ago. 6551 tests were performed (8.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 1.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Eswatini for time series data. | 20:38 |
| Arsanerit | %cases brazil | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In Brazil, there have been 965512 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 46842 deaths (4.9% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 10.7 million tests were performed (9.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 8.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil for time series data. | 20:38 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: I've been considering changing the default data back to the original JHU hybrid data. Do you think that would be better? | 20:38 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, not quite, because we'd lose most of the regions... | 20:39 |
| tinwhiskers | (what you currently see with the legacy=yes option turned on) | 20:39 |
| LjL | but then again, many of the regions are unusably jumpy in the Covidly dataset :\ | 20:39 |
| LjL | we'd also lose the amount of tests i think | 20:40 |
| tinwhiskers | I was meaning to put at link at the top of the page to the alternate data set so it's a but more accessible. I'll do that for a start | 20:40 |
| tinwhiskers | ah, yes. true about tests | 20:40 |
| nixonix | sweden: The Foreign Ministry announced on Wednesday that it is raising travel advice to 10 countries in Europe, including Greece, Italy, Croatia and Spain. The decision is welcomed by the travel industry. | 20:40 |
| nixonix | finland isnt on the list. i saw the full list somewhere... | 20:41 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, you could just use "whichever is higher" from the two data sets, although in some cases i've also seen Covidly jump far too high and stay there... i'm not sure if that happens in realtime, or it's past data that get mangled | 20:41 |
| Arsanerit | raising meaning what? | 20:41 |
| Arsanerit | lifting the trave warning, or raising it to a higher level? | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | LJL: yeah, they are wildly apart sometimes. | 20:41 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, one heuristic i was thinking about was "if two datapoints for two consecutive day have delta=0, then use the OTHER data set for those" | 20:42 |
| tinwhiskers | that's a fine idea... | 20:42 |
| tinwhiskers | ugh | 20:43 |
| tinwhiskers | LJL: btw, how come I can only see LjL-Matrix in the user list and can only tab complete to that? | 20:43 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, no idea, it's your client, i'm definitely here :P | 20:44 |
| tinwhiskers | phew | 20:44 |
| LjL | but i'll get highlighted even if you highlight LjL-Matrix anyway | 20:44 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, better? | 20:44 |
| tinwhiskers | you're there now :-) | 20:44 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, there are 383 users here. if you see much less than that then it may be a good idea to cycle the channel :P | 20:45 |
| nixonix | the full list of countries (for swedish to travel now, so are removed from the list of recommendation of not to travel to): belgium, croatia, france, greece, iceland, italy, luxembourg, portugal, spain, switzerland | 20:45 |
| de-facto | tinwhiskers, btw what do you think about https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data ? | 20:46 |
| LjL | nixonix, that seems to include countries at risk, so maybe they're actually being "good to you" by saying, hey, Finland doesn't have many cases yet, let's not go there and infect them...? | 20:46 |
| nixonix | not sure how its affecting flight routes, package holidays etc | 20:46 |
| LjL | yeah a lot of economy is involved in ways i don't know any details of, for sure | 20:47 |
| nixonix | the situation in greece is similar than in finland (and was even better couple weeks ago) | 20:47 |
| LjL | Greece may have a bit of a catastrophe if they infected by tourists, but at the same time, Greece absolutely needs tourists | 20:47 |
| tinwhiskers | de-facto: I remember it looked really good but I never watched it perform over time, which is really the telling thing to see. I don't recall what regional detail it had now. | 20:47 |
| LjL | if they get* | 20:48 |
| nixonix | yeah, i was wondering if all those other countries are very dependent on tourists too. not as much anyways | 20:48 |
| LjL | not as much as Greece, but in Italy that's an obvious reason why we're reopening for the summer | 20:48 |
| tinwhiskers | JHU seem to have finally got their shit together anyway so their data is not bad now | 20:48 |
| LjL | nixonix, by the way, Italians going to Greece will have to take a PCR test, and if they're found positive they'll be quarantined, surprisingly at the expense of the Greek government | 20:49 |
| LjL | not sure if that's true of some other countries too | 20:49 |
| LjL | quite possibly Spain | 20:49 |
| de-facto | tinwhiskers, i also dont know how detailed it is or the regional granularity, i just thought it looked interesting and they seem to use reliable sources | 20:49 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Coronavirus: Using European supercomputing, EU-funded research project demonstrates promising results for potential treatment (80 votes) | https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_890 | https://redd.it/hbhuol | 20:54 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I've just been informed that today is Friday. I thought it was Thursday. That means I'm off to town, so I porobably won't get to look at the population data today after all. | 20:54 |
| de-facto | hmm but their data looks weird e.g. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/spain?country=~ESP <-- no update since May 27th? | 20:55 |
| nixonix | those travel recommendations, and sometimes perhaps restrictions, are based on dual agreements i think. like denmark and norway asked finland also, but i read "finland refused so that swedes wouldnt lose their face" (and made bilateral agreement with norway, and i think with iceland and denmark too) | 20:55 |
| nixonix | something like that i saw in spanish article, they planned to do with french | 20:55 |
| LjL | yes they are often based on reciprocity, just like visa waiver agreements | 20:56 |
| LjL | you do it for me i do it for you | 20:56 |
| nixonix | but nobody controls flight routes? its only up to norwegian to reopen those routes to arlanda? | 20:57 |
| LjL | this article just popped up, although i can't read it except for the headline and sub-headline https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/health/coronavirus-antibodies.html | 20:57 |
| LjL | if borders are closed surely so are flight routes. if borders are open then i guess whether flight routes are reopened is up to the airlines... | 20:57 |
| nixonix | you cant read that? i dont have scripts allowed in noscript and it opens fine (if not, use archive.is or web.archive.org) | 20:58 |
| LjL | yeah i've done the latter | 20:59 |
| LjL | it references this study | 20:59 |
| LjL | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6 | 20:59 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.nature.com: Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections | Nature Medicine | 21:00 |
| tinwhiskers | de-facto: covidly.com had problem with spain from around that time too and has never fully corrected. | 21:00 |
| de-facto | hmm that glitch seems to be in most of the datasets for Spain to some extend though, e.g. offloop both Covidly and JHU | 21:00 |
| LjL | in most cases i don't feel i can be bothered with disabling js and what-have-you just to read something that i can probably find elsewhere less restrictive | 21:00 |
| de-facto | yeah | 21:00 |
| nixonix | they have been saying here "we cant refuse people to traven in sweden if they want". and then come back, with only recommendation to self-quarantine (with not any judicial power). and i dont think even swedish citizens are required to take a pcr test or self-quarantine, only recommended | 21:01 |
| de-facto | one flattening on fatalities other on daily new cases | 21:02 |
| de-facto | so probably glitch in upstream somewhere | 21:02 |
| LjL | nixonix, i don't see why they "can't", given other european countries have done this and much more. they don't want to, is another thing | 21:02 |
| LjL | nixonix, there's been the Nordic Passport Union for like 70 years, well before Schengen, but when the immigrant crisis happened, Denmark and Sweden seemed to have no problem suspending it | 21:03 |
| nixonix | the laws are still different. and then they are interpreted the way, that some people or instances think they should be interpreted | 21:03 |
| nixonix | but finns kept the borders open for swedes to pass them over here. maybe that policy they want to maintain, is in the background of the current practice too, not sure | 21:04 |
| LjL | The risk goes up with sustained contact — during face-to-face conversation, for example, or by sharing the same air space for a prolonged time. In addition to its confusing stance on masks, “the W.H.O. has been saying aerosol transmission doesn’t occur, which is also perplexing,” Dr. Cowling said, adding, “I think both are actually wrong.” | 21:18 |
| LjL | https://archive.is/226RF | 21:18 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Formal request for the retraction of Zhang et al., 2020 (82 votes) | https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820 | https://redd.it/hbihs5 | 21:18 |
| de-facto | oh btw covidly seems to merge Johns Hopkins CSV (Daily reports), Johns Hopkins Dashboard (Daily and real-time data), WHO Situation Data (Daily reports), Worldometer (Daily reports, real-time, and testing data), Wikipedia (Daily reports, real-time, and testing data), Our World In Data (Testing data) https://covidly.com/faq | 21:19 |
| LjL | oh that retraction request was sort of expected if it's the paper i'm thinking of | 21:19 |
| LjL | de-facto, then maybe it's errors and/or lack of attention to a particular region's numbers on Wikipedia that's mostly causing the quirks | 21:20 |
| LjL | although Google chose Wikipedia as its sole source | 21:20 |
| de-facto | interesting | 21:20 |
| de-facto | I am curious about temporal dynamics of lifting restrictions, are there any studies about the the duration from lifting of a particular restriction and the effect it had on prevalence? | 21:26 |
| de-facto | probably also depends on the base prevalence in the cohort in question, e.g. if overdispersion plays a significant role etc | 21:27 |
| de-facto | e.g. some administrations assumed a separation of 14 days already could allow to distinguish causes for effects, though imho I would suspect much more delay time to be more realistic | 21:29 |
| de-facto | a single or a few serial times probably are not enough for the temporal dynamics to really unfold saturating a new equilibrium against the updated restrictions, e.g. more generations would be required for self amplifying effects to become significant contributions | 21:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zimbabwe: +62 cases (now 463) since 21 hours ago — South Africa: +3478 cases (now 83890), +63 deaths (now 1737) since 21 hours ago — Utah, US: +495 cases (now 15839), +3 deaths (now 152) since 21 hours ago — Georgia (US), US: +882 cases (now 60912), +30 deaths (now 2605) since 3 hours ago | 21:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Carolina, US: +992 cases (now 21548), +4 deaths (now 621) since 22 hours ago — California, US: +1299 cases (now 164840), +24 deaths (now 5310) since 4 hours ago — US: +3084 cases (now 2.3 million), +85 deaths (now 120494) since 46 minutes ago — Egypt: +1218 cases (now 50437), +88 deaths (now 1938) since 22 hours ago | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mauritania: +201 cases (now 2424), +2 deaths (now 97) since 22 hours ago — US: +229 cases (now 2.3 million), +4 deaths (now 120498) since 17 minutes ago — New Jersey, US: +27 cases (now 170982), +5 deaths (now 12926) since an hour ago — World: +452 cases (now 8.6 million), +6 deaths (now 454244) since 17 minutes ago | 22:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Wyoming, US: +30 cases (now 1144) since 22 hours ago — Brazil: +12630 cases (now 978142), +906 deaths (now 47748) since 4 hours ago — Texas, US: +1130 cases (now 101191), +15 deaths (now 2138) since 47 minutes ago — World: +14384 cases (now 8.6 million), +922 deaths (now 455166) since 31 minutes ago | 23:20 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: How deadly is the coronavirus? Scientists are close to an answer (82 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2 | https://redd.it/hbic8s | 23:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bulgaria: +132 cases (now 3674), +6 deaths (now 190) since 23 hours ago — Texas, US: +602 cases (now 101793), +2 deaths (now 2140) since 16 minutes ago — US: +752 cases (now 2.3 million), +6 deaths (now 120520) since 16 minutes ago — Ohio, US: +91 cases (now 43236), +4 deaths (now 2637) since an hour ago | 23:35 |
| nixonix | and like in spain, they use official fatality numbers to calculate IFR? | 23:42 |
| nixonix | i havent checked the difference in spain, but in the west 50% more to official numbers is a good starting point (in uk the difference was bigger i think, in stockholm and new york city smaller) | 23:43 |
| nixonix | and calculated from spanish antibody survey, for the whole spain i think IFR was a bit over 1.1% using official fatality numbers (so maybe around 1.65% if the difference was 50% there) | 23:45 |
| nixonix | but they should use antibody survey results only from high prevalence areas, like madrid, lombardy, new york city etc. otherwise the results are too tainted by false positives | 23:46 |
| nixonix | sorry i seem to repeat some stuff ive written before a few times... | 23:46 |
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