| kreyren_ | %cases USA | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | kreyren_: In US, there have been 2.3 million confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 120531 deaths (5.3% of cases) as of 13 minutes ago. 26.2 million tests were performed (8.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 11.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 00:01 |
| Arsanerit | %cases world | 00:07 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In World, there have been 8.6 million confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 455393 deaths (5.3% of cases) as of 14 minutes ago. 132.2 million tests were performed (6.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 9.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 00:07 |
| Arsanerit | %cases Navajo Nation | 00:08 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: Sorry, Navajo Nation not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 00:08 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Fauci says "anti-science bias" is a problem in the US (10818 votes) | https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-18-20-intl/h_fcadb4e9f7cc9f3461c4a20c8074596a | https://redd.it/hbhjig | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Oklahoma, US: +450 cases (now 9354), +2 deaths (now 366) since 23 hours ago — Hawaii, US: +18 cases (now 762) since 23 hours ago — Peru: +3480 cases (now 244388), +204 deaths (now 7461) since 23 hours ago — Colorado, US: +228 cases (now 29901), +7 deaths (now 1638) since 23 hours ago | 00:20 |
| ap4lmtree | hi | 00:38 |
| ap4lmtree | i dont want to see my doctor until i get a vaccien | 00:38 |
| ap4lmtree | but i need a refill on some of my blood pressure medication in october | 00:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nigeria: +745 cases (now 18480), +6 deaths (now 475) since a day ago — Brazil: +5217 cases (now 983359), +121 deaths (now 47869) since an hour ago — Gabon: +111 cases (now 4340), +2 deaths (now 32) since 22 hours ago — US: +1744 cases (now 2.3 million), +25 deaths (now 120567) since 48 minutes ago | 01:06 |
| bin_bash | ap4lmtree: call them and tell them you want to do the appointment over the phone or over video | 01:09 |
| dTal | October's a long time away | 01:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Colombia: +3171 cases (now 60217), +63 deaths (now 1950) since 6 hours ago — California, US: +1044 cases (now 166368), +36 deaths (now 5356) since an hour ago — US: +1205 cases (now 2.3 million), +37 deaths (now 120604) since 17 minutes ago — World: +4386 cases (now 8.6 million), +100 deaths (now 455661) since 17 minutes ago | 01:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Idaho, US: +111 cases (now 3743), +1 deaths (now 89) since a day ago — Nebraska, US: +189 cases (now 17415), +6 deaths (now 240) since 7 hours ago — US: +591 cases (now 2.3 million), +19 deaths (now 120623) since 17 minutes ago — California, US: +158 cases (now 166526), +1 deaths (now 5357) since 17 minutes ago | 01:36 |
| DianaSunny | hi | 01:44 |
| LjL | %title https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.punto-informatico.it%2Fuk-contact-tracing-decentralizzato%2F | 01:46 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From translate.google.com: Google Translate | 01:46 |
| LjL | that's a useful title as usual, thanks | 01:47 |
| LjL | DianaSunny, hi | 01:47 |
| nixonix | %date egypt | 01:47 |
| nixonix | %data egypt | 01:47 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: In Egypt, there have been 50437 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 1938 deaths (3.8% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 141002 tests were performed (35.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 12.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Egypt for time series data. | 01:47 |
| nixonix | they are arresting doctors who criticize govt response there, according to that cnn link above. i wonder whats going on there | 01:48 |
| nixonix | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/argentina-president-enters-voluntary-isolation-amid-coronavirus-surge | 01:51 |
| ryouma | new york, arizona, italy, egypt: http://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=Egypt;Italy;Arizona;New%20York&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Rate | 01:51 |
| nixonix | ^ ^ Argentina's president enters voluntary isolation amid coronavirus surge | 01:51 |
| LjL | nixonix, well in Russia they just fall from windows | 01:51 |
| ryouma | :/ | 01:52 |
| ryouma | what is up with that | 01:52 |
| LjL | a longstanding tradition | 01:52 |
| DianaSunny | he hides? | 01:52 |
| ryouma | how do they even get defestration squads into a room without being noticed? | 01:52 |
| ryouma | n* | 01:52 |
| ryouma | defenestration* | 01:52 |
| ryouma | even polonium seems more discreet | 01:53 |
| LjL | well if i knew i'd be either employed by them, or in the curb | 01:53 |
| nixonix | til a new word | 01:53 |
| DianaSunny | ljl sorry i don't know how to work this, it's my first day | 01:53 |
| LjL | DianaSunny, i didn't say anything | 01:54 |
| LjL | who hides though? | 01:54 |
| nixonix | of course, fönster/fenster | 01:54 |
| DianaSunny | i saw a bubble with my name on it ? | 01:54 |
| ryouma | latin fenestra maybe | 01:54 |
| nixonix | more likely yeah | 01:54 |
| DianaSunny | physics experts must be in here. | 01:55 |
| LjL | nixonix, fenestra in latin, i think the germanic words are loanwords from that | 01:55 |
| DianaSunny | =# | 01:56 |
| LjL | DianaSunny, i just said hi | 01:56 |
| LjL | you said hi, i said hi. that's not particularly specific to this! | 01:57 |
| DianaSunny | hi | 01:57 |
| DianaSunny | i think they kicked me out of physics? | 01:57 |
| DianaSunny | my words won't go on there, i don't know why | 01:58 |
| LjL | have no idea, i'm not in there | 01:58 |
| DianaSunny | ok | 01:58 |
| DianaSunny | i'm happy there are mods. | 01:58 |
| LjL | here's something we've known for a while now https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-antibody-tests-have-a-mathematical-pitfall/ but it comes with graphs that maybe help explaining it to others | 02:02 |
| nixonix | temporary muting perhaps there | 02:02 |
| DianaSunny | do u think there'll be a 2nd wave? | 02:02 |
| LjL | there has already been in some places | 02:02 |
| DianaSunny | i think they blew it out of proportion to shut down the cities. | 02:03 |
| LjL | chances are there will be in other places | 02:03 |
| LjL | "they"? | 02:03 |
| DianaSunny | the gov | 02:03 |
| LjL | %cases lombardy | 02:03 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Lombardy, Italy, there have been 92302 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 16480 deaths (17.9% of cases) as of 18 hours ago. 196302 tests were performed (47.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardy for time series data. | 02:03 |
| DianaSunny | around here they say everything is covid | 02:03 |
| LjL | this is where i live. 16480 deaths means we had as many deaths as a big earthquake, every single day, for weeks | 02:03 |
| DianaSunny | heart attack,, stroke etc | 02:03 |
| LjL | i suspect my gov isn't your gov | 02:03 |
| DianaSunny | n | 02:03 |
| LjL | no, they don't | 02:03 |
| DianaSunny | no | 02:03 |
| DianaSunny | yes they did | 02:04 |
| LjL | if anything the other way around | 02:04 |
| DianaSunny | here they did. | 02:04 |
| DianaSunny | that's why the # of the other diseases all went down | 02:04 |
| DianaSunny | drs even said it. | 02:04 |
| LjL | have you looked at excess mortality data? | 02:04 |
| DianaSunny | it's less than 1% mortality rate. | 02:04 |
| DianaSunny | nice talking to you, take care | 02:05 |
| LjL | i can't imagine why they've muted her in ##physics | 02:06 |
| nixonix | that made me curious, but then sudden quit | 02:06 |
| LjL | nixonix, "Between March 15th (the week New York passed 50 official fatalities) and May 23rd, the city recorded 21,300 official covid-19 deaths, according to the revised estimate. This figure is 84% as high as the 25,300 excess deaths from all causes registered in the same period." | 02:06 |
| LjL | https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries | 02:06 |
| LjL | so however you shuffle the death cases, NYC suffered many more deaths than normal | 02:06 |
| LjL | causes* | 02:07 |
| LjL | at least that was my guess as to the location | 02:07 |
| LjL | %wa cpe-24-193-166-40.nyc.res.rr.com | 02:07 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, failed to get any hits! | 02:08 |
| LjL | still a better guess than Brainstorm's | 02:08 |
| ryouma | LjL: what is up with this http://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardy;Arizona;New%20York&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Rate | 02:12 |
| LjL | ryouma, my guess is it doesn't have the population of lombardy available | 02:13 |
| LjL | i'll check | 02:14 |
| LjL | actually it does have it | 02:14 |
| LjL | but earlier tinwhiskers was discussing something about population having issues, not sure if this is related | 02:15 |
| tinwhiskers | Most countries don't have regional populations, but Italy is an exception. | 02:16 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, but it doesn't seem to work, with "by population" selected, Lombardy's graph is flat | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Argentina: +1958 cases (now 37510), +19 deaths (now 948) since 7 hours ago — Panama: +754 cases (now 23351), +5 deaths (now 475) since a day ago — North Carolina, US: +502 cases (now 48690), +54 deaths (now 1235) since 7 hours ago — Texas, US: +461 cases (now 102661), +2 deaths (now 2142) since 47 minutes ago | 02:21 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, also, two other inquiries: how do you compute R_eff (it seems to end up a fair bit higher than the way our authorities estimate it, since it's hovering below *and above* 1.0 in Italy now, while we're reassured it's staying well below), and secondly could you expose it in the data (current, or better yesterday's since current sometimes has quirks, would be enough, i don't need historical)? | 02:24 |
| Kyros | 54 deaths in 7 hours? | 02:24 |
| LjL | Kyros, they have been added to the tally in the past 7 hours, i have no way to determine that they *occurred* in the past 7 hours (they probably didn't) | 02:25 |
| Kyros | their daily number of cases is accelerating quite quickly | 02:26 |
| LjL | yes it's one of the states that's doing badly right now | 02:27 |
| LjL | together with South Carolina, Arizona, and others | 02:27 |
| Kyros | i live on the other side of the mountains from them in tn | 02:27 |
| LjL | California is steadily increasing but not quite exponential | 02:27 |
| LjL | uhm, India is doing *very* badly with deaths | 02:30 |
| LjL | the new cases are growing more than linearly but the deaths just spiked horribly in the past couple of days | 02:30 |
| Kyros | wow yeah | 02:30 |
| Kyros | i wonder if they changed the way they were reporting them | 02:31 |
| LjL | or in some state, healthcare collapsed completely | 02:31 |
| LjL | it's also possible some state has failed to report them for a while | 02:31 |
| LjL | and is reporting them all at a time now | 02:32 |
| LjL | http://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=Delhi&smooth=yes me no like | 02:32 |
| nixonix | whats the latest on temp and humidity correlating infections? that study they used for metropolitan areas could have used those too. in usa would be perfect, because filtering other factors is easier than between different countries (where also data can be incorrect in different ways) | 02:40 |
| LjL | nixonix, i was wondering about that, the only such study i saw was very coarse, taking a limited number of countries and not looking at regional units. there are countries now, especially in south america, that are being hit badly but where the weather conditions are likely to vary dramatically depending on the region (Brazil, Chile, Argentina) | 02:41 |
| ryouma | well arizona would be a countertrend for heat | 02:42 |
| LjL | in some parts of them it coule be fully winter while others may be mildly affected by seasons | 02:42 |
| LjL | i think now we should have data for enough countries to re-run some statistics on this | 02:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +5662 cases (now 165455), +667 deaths (now 19747) since a day ago — Guatemala: +617 cases (now 11868), +17 deaths (now 449) since a day ago — Jamaica: +12 cases (now 638) since 23 hours ago — World: +6625 cases (now 8.6 million), +688 deaths (now 456453) since an hour ago | 03:21 |
| nixonix | Tegnell said Tuesday that "a fair amount of the population is immune" to the coronavirus now, adding that a study on the level of immunity now seen in Sweden is due to be published in the next few days. He told CNBC back in April that the capital Stockholm was starting to "see the effects of herd immunity." | 03:59 |
| redlantern | nixonix: who is tegnell | 04:00 |
| redlantern | I heard antibodies are protective for 2 months | 04:00 |
| nixonix | swedens head epidemiologist anders tegnell: | 04:00 |
| nixonix | We are better prepared in many ways, health care is better prepared. We'd be up and running a bit more with contact tracing and we also have the immunity in the population which will make things a lot easier in a lot of ways," he told CNBC Tuesday. | 04:00 |
| nixonix | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/swedens-plan-if-theres-a-second-wave-of-coronavirus.html | 04:00 |
| ryouma | then consider the long term effects | 04:00 |
| redlantern | nixonix: aren't they still on the 1st wave? | 04:01 |
| redlantern | isn't everyone? | 04:01 |
| redlantern | except maybe new zealand | 04:02 |
| nixonix | if you look at offloop graph, it seems the second wave is starting in sweden now. so their herd immunity will be useful | 04:03 |
| LjL | no, there are places with a definite second peak | 04:03 |
| ryouma | ny is not on the first wave | 04:03 |
| ryouma | az is | 04:03 |
| ryouma | sweden and az look similar actually | 04:06 |
| nixonix | but you dont have herd immunity in az | 04:07 |
| ryouma | the ny rate of increase chart is interesting | 04:07 |
| ryouma | idk what the second wave will look like politically in theus | 04:07 |
| ryouma | i'm not sure americans know how to not be cantankerous | 04:07 |
| nixonix | they are doing antibody survey in the highest prevalence area in stockholm, that is rinkeby. maybe tegnells herd immunity study will be based on that | 04:10 |
| nixonix | i wonder how it goes, when later they find out, it was just pipe dreams. will tegnell say something like, it was supposed to be 70%, but we had a decimal point error in calculations | 04:12 |
| PlanckWalk | Sweden doesn't have anywhere near herd immunity | 04:17 |
| nixonix | a few days, and they will present the proof | 04:18 |
| PlanckWalk | It wouldn't surprise me if some particular localities had much higher infections than others | 04:35 |
| PlanckWalk | (and please, let this not be yet another antibody study with shit sampling methods) | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Myanmar: +23 cases (now 286) since 21 hours ago — Bolivia: +814 cases (now 21499), +18 deaths (now 697) since a day ago — Honduras: +440 cases (now 10739), +7 deaths (now 343) since a day ago — World: +1296 cases (now 8.6 million), +22 deaths (now 456475) since an hour ago | 04:37 |
| PlanckWalk | "Facebook recruits" or "supermarket volunteers" or "health system employees" with conclusions generalized to the whole population. | 04:37 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: the R(eff) is being calculated using a very crude approximation that I got from DocScrutinizer. It's basically uses a smoothing algorithm then gets the ratio of cases today over cases from 4 days ago. I'm surprised it works as well as it does but am looking for a better method. If you have/see/find any methods that don't rely on numbers we have no idea about please let me know! | 04:45 |
| tinwhiskers | as for exposing the data, I'm not quite sure what you mean. You can export the values to csv using the icon at the top right of the graph. | 04:46 |
| tinwhiskers | the only reliable methods for R(eff) I've seen require detailed case-specific data which we don't have. If nothing else you can use this R(eff) value as a comparative index between countries but you shouldn't consider it to be an accurate value. A value over 1 does mean *confirmed* cases are increasing so it has that going for it. | 04:49 |
| tinwhiskers | (or confirmed deaths if you choose that option) | 04:50 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, exposing i mean for he bot, in the data csv | 05:00 |
| LjL | exposing the R_eff | 05:00 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. ok. | 05:00 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i assume our authorities also are using "naive" R_eff estimation, naive as in based on the official data | 05:01 |
| tinwhiskers | they tend to have case tracking data that allows them to put a much more accurate figure on it | 05:02 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Arnold Schwarzenegger backs California face-mask order: ‘Anyone making it a political issue is an absolute moron’ (10952 votes) | https://www.marketwatch.com/story/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-to-wear-a-mask-anyone-making-it-a-political-issue-is-an-absolute-moron-2020-06-18 | https://redd.it/hbraa5 | 05:10 |
| Trippy72394 | I hear from friends in India that the lockdown is only in name, and that people are all going to work and are out and about. Does anyone know for sure? | 05:44 |
| ryouma | re the ca order, what is available now? surgical masks available now? n95 not yet? | 05:48 |
| ryouma | or are face masks a lower grade of surgical masks? or are they any face covering? | 05:48 |
| redlantern | ryouma: can wear bandana, won't be enforced much | 06:03 |
| redlantern | my area started this months ago, just goes to show you how totally stupid US is | 06:04 |
| ryouma | no i mean what are the most useful masks available. like actually certified surgical maskis? | 06:18 |
| ryouma | well it's nice to see public figures making sense every ocne in a while | 06:21 |
| ryouma | i was floored by cuomo making sense back when, and now floored by the clickbait above. is the current gov same party? | 06:21 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Challenges of “Return to Work” in an Ongoing Pandemic (80 votes) | https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMsr2019953?articleTools=true | https://redd.it/hbi4n8 | 06:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kyrgyzstan: +132 cases (now 2789), +1 deaths (now 32) since a day ago — Pakistan: +4944 cases (now 165062), +136 deaths (now 3229) since a day ago — Kazakhstan: +474 cases (now 16351), +5 deaths (now 105) since 12 hours ago — Haiti: +228 cases (now 4916), +2 deaths (now 84) since a day ago | 06:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ukraine: +770 cases (now 34833), +10 deaths (now 976) since 12 hours ago — Ontario, Canada: +192 cases (now 34574), +6 deaths (now 2613) since a day ago — Quebec, Canada: +120 cases (now 54383), +42 deaths (now 5340) since a day ago — Alberta, Canada: +49 cases (now 7579), +1 deaths (now 152) since a day ago | 07:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Norrbotten, Sweden: +66 cases (now 853), +1 deaths (now 60) since a day ago — Atlantico, Colombia: +804 cases (now 12228), +33 deaths (now 500) since a day ago — Goias, Brazil: +1068 cases (now 13304), +12 deaths (now 264) since a day ago — Parana, Brazil: +834 cases (now 11919), +20 deaths (now 406) since a day ago | 07:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cameroon: +774 cases (now 10638), +6 deaths (now 282) since 3 days ago — World: +1266 cases (now 8.6 million), +7 deaths (now 456649) since 31 minutes ago — India: +394 cases (now 381485), +1 deaths (now 12605) since 10 hours ago — Iowa, US: +98 cases (now 24959) since 6 hours ago | 08:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Slovakia: +14 cases (now 1576) since 15 hours ago — Russia: +7972 cases (now 569063), +181 deaths (now 7841) since 15 hours ago — Armenia: +459 cases (now 19157), +10 deaths (now 319) since 15 hours ago — World: +9111 cases (now 8.6 million), +201 deaths (now 456850) since 2 hours ago | 10:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | tinwhiskers: http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm still works :-) | 10:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | plus a new "faster" d/d-1 calculation | 10:46 |
| tinwhiskers | Hi DocScrutinizer05. I don't follow | 10:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | actually (d/d-1)^4 | 10:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | we had d(d-4 | 10:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >> [1d] is diff from yesterday to today ^4<< | 10:48 |
| tinwhiskers | ok. But I'm not sure what you're getting at | 10:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, https://i.imgur.com/D5kBzMD.png the light green curve is "faster response" to changes | 10:52 |
| tinwhiskers | well, I certainly don't disagree, but I' | 10:54 |
| tinwhiskers | m wondering what the relevance of the point you're making is, or what the topic is... | 10:54 |
| tinwhiskers | could you start at the beginning for me? | 10:54 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm assuming it's something to do with me mentioning earlier the R_eff method I'm using that I got from you, but I'm just not understanding where you're going with this sorry | 10:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | reply rto a highlight I noticed ;-) | 11:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>[19 Jun 2020 04:45:51] <tinwhiskers> LjL: the R(eff) is being calculated using a very crude approximation that I got from DocScrutinizer. It's basically uses a smoothing algorithm then gets the ratio of cases today over cases from 4 days ago. I'm surprised it works as well as it does but am looking for a better method. If you have/see/find any methods that don't rely on numbers we have no idea about please let me know!<< | 11:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I now adoped/developed a new R_eff algo | 11:01 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, ok. I guessed that part correctly then. :-) | 11:01 |
| tinwhiskers | so, what are you saying about it? Are you suggesting I should change the method? | 11:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | depends on the sensitivity to noise you want | 11:02 |
| tinwhiskers | ok. thanks for the heads-up. I'll check out that site and see if anything there looks better. | 11:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | (d[o]/d[-4])^1 is what RKI does as well, (d[0](d[-1])^4 is the faster equivalent | 11:04 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. ok | 11:04 |
| tinwhiskers | thanks. I'll play with that tomorrow. | 11:05 |
| tinwhiskers | How you been? Haven't seen you around for a while. | 11:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the pub lockdown caused complete true social isolation and I'm breeding a covid-alike cough since mid of November already, so... | 11:08 |
| tinwhiskers | :-( | 11:08 |
| tinwhiskers | why is there a ^1 in there? | 11:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | just to explain the systematic. 4 is the serial length as of RKI, you could also do a (d[0]/d[-2])^2 or (d[0](d[-8])^0.5 | 11:11 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, ok | 11:12 |
| tinwhiskers | Do you happen to have a reference to the RKI saying the generation time is 4 days? That seems low to me. I tried playing around with the sensitivity of that and it made very little difference, but it still seems worth getting right. | 11:15 |
| tinwhiskers | I would have expected the generation time to be something like 6-8 days (the average time until people start shedding virions) | 11:16 |
| PlanckWalk | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article | 11:18 |
| PlanckWalk | There was also a South Korean one reporting ~4 days | 11:18 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. thanks! | 11:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the reference... lemme see | 11:20 |
| PlanckWalk | However, mean serial intervals can be shortened by public health interventions | 11:20 |
| PlanckWalk | (By preventing transmissions later in the course of illness) | 11:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the generic formula I came up (verified by petschge[studied epidemiology]) anyway is (d[0]/d[4*N])^(1/N) | 11:23 |
| tinwhiskers | cool. What's N? | 11:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well -4 but you know what I mean | 11:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +206 cases (now 9280) since 13 hours ago — Bangladesh: +3243 cases (now 105535), +45 deaths (now 1388) since 16 hours ago — Philippines: +660 cases (now 28459), +14 deaths (now 1130) since 16 hours ago — Indonesia: +1041 cases (now 43803), +34 deaths (now 2373) since 16 hours ago | 11:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | N is an arbitrary factor to adjust the actual observed timespan and thus the applied "smoothing" | 11:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | RKI works with N=1 | 11:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I added a curve N=0.25 | 11:25 |
| tinwhiskers | Cool. Those are good things for me to look at tomorrow. And it's good to get some info about the basis for the equation, which reassures me a great deal. | 11:28 |
| tinwhiskers | That makes me fairly happy to keep using it I think. If you happen to find a ref to RKI using it that I could link to that would be even better | 11:29 |
| tinwhiskers | but it's bed time for me now. | 11:29 |
| tinwhiskers | thanks very much DocScrutinizer05 and PlanckWalk | 11:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | tinwhiskers: somewhere nearby https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-06-17-en.html - I'll try to find the spot where I once found it | 11:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | maybe https://www.rki.de/SharedDocs/FAQ/NCOV2019/FAQ_Liste_Epidemiologie.html#FAQId13985854 or actually https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-05-05-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile >> Die im Rahmen des Nowcastings geschätzte Anzahl der COVID-19-Neuerkrankungen wird als gleitendes 4-Tage-Mittel dargestellt, um Zufallseffekte einzelner Tage auszugleichen (Abbildung 8). Damit ergibt sich | 11:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | die Berechnung des Punktschätzers von R für einen bestimmten Tag als einfacher Quotient der Anzahl von Neuerkrankungen für diesen Tag geteilt durch die Anzahl von Neuerkrankungen 4 Tage davor<< | 11:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the last part says verbatim >>R_0 = d[0]/d[-4]<< | 11:43 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, cool. | 11:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there's always an english report as well, I hope it has same info | 11:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yep https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-06-17-en.html >> The sensitive R-value reported can be estimated by using a 4-day moving average of the number of new cases estimated by nowcasting. This 4-day value reflects the infection situation about one to two weeks ago. This value reacts sensitively to short-term changes in case numbers, such as those caused by individual outbreaks. This | 11:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | can lead to relatively large fluctuations, especially if the total number of new cases is small. The current estimate of the 4-day-R-value is 0.86 (95%-prediction interval: 0.73 – 1.02) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 17/06/2020, 12:00 AM.<< | 11:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | RKI due to nowcasting gets significantly different numbers than I do, for *today*, while for older values they converge with mine | 11:53 |
| tinwhiskers | thanks DocScrutinizer05. I'll check that out tomorrow. Appreciate the info. | 11:54 |
| tinwhiskers | Translated I get, "The number of COVID-19 new cases estimated as part of the nowcasting is shown as a 4-day moving average to compensate for the random effects of individual days (Figure 8), which means that the calculation of the point estimate of R for a specific day is a simple quotient of the number of new cases for this day divided by the number of new cases 4 days before. As of 06.05.20200: 00 o'clock, the number of reproductions | 11:56 |
| tinwhiskers | is estimated at R = 0.71 (95% prediction interval: 0.59-0.82)." which is very clear (and not repeated in the English version). | 11:56 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Remdesivir but not famotidine inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replication in human pluripotent stem cell-derived intestinal organoids (80 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.144816v1?rss=1 | https://redd.it/hbr3uu | 12:01 |
| tinwhiskers | ah, here's the english version that spells it out: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-05-05-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 12:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yeah in fact RKI does nowcasting -> 4day-average -> d[0]/d[-4]; I do 7day-average -> (d[0]/d[-4*N])^(1/N) | 12:01 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, I noticed that | 12:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no nowcasting | 12:01 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm currently following your method (7 day) | 12:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's an empirical method that yields good results | 12:02 |
| tinwhiskers | == 7 day moving average then d[0]/d[-4] | 12:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | a little "slow" but then the nowcasting seems rather arbitrary, that's why I deliberately refuse to use it | 12:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | actually it was the reason why I created http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 12:04 |
| tinwhiskers | ok. bed. thanks | 12:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | o/ yw | 12:04 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 (81 votes) | https://ncrc.jhsph.edu/research/identifying-airborne-transmission-as-the-dominant-route-for-the-spread-of-covid-19/ | https://redd.it/hbje78 | 12:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Qatar: +1021 cases (now 85462), +7 deaths (now 93) since 18 hours ago — Oman: +852 cases (now 27670), +6 deaths (now 125) since 18 hours ago — United Arab Emirates: +393 cases (now 44145), +2 deaths (now 300) since 18 hours ago — Romania: +320 cases (now 23400), +11 deaths (now 1484) since 18 hours ago | 12:39 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 specific neutralising antibodies in blood donors from the Lodi Red Zone in Lombardy, Italy, as at 06 April 2020 (81 votes) | https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.24.2001031?#abstract_content | https://redd.it/hbkiqg | 12:43 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: 39/2020 Study ISS on Wastewater, in Milan and Turin SARS-CoV-2 already present in December (84 votes) | https://www.iss.it/en/primo-piano/-/asset_publisher/o4oGR9qmvUz9/content/id/5422725 | https://redd.it/hbxwzh | 13:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ethiopia: +116 cases (now 4070), +7 deaths (now 72) since 20 hours ago — Kuwait: +604 cases (now 38678), +5 deaths (now 313) since 20 hours ago — Iran: +2615 cases (now 200262), +120 deaths (now 9392) since 20 hours ago — Belarus: +676 cases (now 57333), +6 deaths (now 337) since 20 hours ago | 14:40 |
| ubLIX | meta-9 /buffer *10 | 14:55 |
| blkshp | So I guess now the UK has lowered from '4' to '3' they will be reducing the 2metre rule. I wonder how much money has been spent on signs and painting "keep 2 metres" signage that's going to have to come down. I know this is not the most important thing but its just gone through my brain | 16:11 |
| pwr22 | <blkshp "So I guess now the UK has lowere"> It doesn't mean we didn't need those signs before so it's a sunk cost thing | 16:12 |
| blkshp | most of them went up last week | 16:12 |
| pwr22 | Infact, even if we didn't need the signs it'd still be a sunk cost 😁 | 16:12 |
| blkshp | I don't know what a "sunk cost" i | 16:13 |
| blkshp | os | 16:13 |
| blkshp | is | 16:13 |
| pwr22 | Ah, not been my experience | 16:13 |
| pwr22 | But I have avoided going out as much as possible so maybe there's a lot more around here now | 16:13 |
| blkshp | I am out of the city but there have not been many signs around here but since the relaxation of the shopping closures which happened monday, all the shopping centres and individual shops have put floor signs, lamp post signage, etc There was some before but nothing like what's appeared in the last 7 days | 16:14 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 16:16 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 300469 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 42288 deaths (14.1% of cases) as of 21 hours ago. 7.3 million tests were performed (4.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 16:16 |
| LjL | blkshp: 4 to 3 what? | 16:21 |
| blkshp | We have a US DEFCON style alert system | 16:21 |
| blkshp | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53106673 | 16:22 |
| LjL | blkshp: Italy has a better situation than the UK at the moment but masks are compulsory indoors (and outdoors in Lombardy, or wherever you can't keep the distance), and stores are still limiting the amount of people who can be inside at a time, with queues outside. Needless to say public transport also has and enforces all the signage. If the UK is smart (big if) they won't relax any of that | 16:23 |
| blkshp | So masks are now required on public transport and 2m rules still required everwhere else. definitely limiting the number of people inside shops, queues outside yes. | 16:24 |
| pwr22 | <blkshp "So masks are now required on pub"> There hasn't been any limiting in supermarkets where I am for a while :( | 16:33 |
| blkshp | Really :O | 16:33 |
| blkshp | I only shop and Sainsburys and Tesco, I'm not ure if it's managers discretion but there's still people filtering people | 16:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Botswana: +10 cases (now 89) since a day ago — Saudi Arabia: +4301 cases (now 150292), +45 deaths (now 1184) since 22 hours ago — Virginia, US: +555 cases (now 56793), +16 deaths (now 1602) since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1346 cases (now 301815), +173 deaths (now 42461) since 22 hours ago | 16:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nevada, US: +410 cases (now 12486) since 23 hours ago — Chile: +6290 cases (now 231393), +252 deaths (now 4093) since 22 hours ago — Alabama, US: +796 cases (now 29002), +12 deaths (now 822) since 23 hours ago — Portugal: +375 cases (now 38464), +3 deaths (now 1527) since 23 hours ago | 17:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Florida, US: +3822 cases (now 89748), +40 deaths (now 3104) since 23 hours ago — Czechia: +78 cases (now 10361), +1 deaths (now 335) since 7 hours ago — US: +3822 cases (now 2.3 million), +40 deaths (now 120778) since 16 minutes ago — World: +4235 cases (now 8.7 million), +51 deaths (now 457860) since 16 minutes ago | 17:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Arizona, US: +3246 cases (now 46689), +41 deaths (now 1312) since 23 hours ago — US: +4752 cases (now 2.3 million), +66 deaths (now 120844) since 17 minutes ago — Indiana, US: +308 cases (now 41746), +25 deaths (now 2516) since 23 hours ago — Ghana: +274 cases (now 13203), +4 deaths (now 70) since 23 hours ago | 18:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +438 cases (now 11767), +4 deaths (now 143) since 23 hours ago — Missouri, US: +498 cases (now 17683) since 17 hours ago — Minnesota, US: +356 cases (now 32031), +17 deaths (now 1393) since 23 hours ago — Rhode Island, US: +68 cases (now 16337), +9 deaths (now 894) since 23 hours ago | 18:21 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Detection of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein in both serum and saliva enhances detection of infection (80 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.16.20133025v1 | https://redd.it/hbiqfe | 18:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iraq: +1635 cases (now 27352), +69 deaths (now 925) since 23 hours ago — Benin: +53 cases (now 650) since a day ago — Oklahoma, US: +352 cases (now 9706), +1 deaths (now 367) since 18 hours ago — India: +2559 cases (now 387835), +69 deaths (now 12746) since 47 minutes ago | 18:36 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: American Airlines bans conservative activist who refused to wear a mask (10731 votes) | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/us/american-airlines-mask-brandon-straka.html | https://redd.it/hc0fw8 | 18:46 |
| LjL | quick note before i leave for a walk (!): today the new cases in Italy are going *down* in number, which may make some graphs funky (tinwhiskers), because apparently Sicily realized they had overcounted by some 300 cases | 18:56 |
| LjL | also, discuss: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_giugno_19%2Fcoronavirus-remuzzi-nuovi-positivi-non-sono-contagiosi-stop-paura-bf24c59c-b199-11ea-842e-6a88f68d3e0a.shtml (if the translated page loads because it doesn't for me) | 18:57 |
| nixonix | The results, confirmed in two different laboratories by two different methods, showed the presence of SARS-Cov-2 in samples taken in Milan and Turin on December 18th, 2019 and in Bologna on January 29th, 2020. Samples from October and November 2019 were negative, showing the virus had yet to arrive, La Rosa said. | 19:01 |
| nixonix | Meanwhile, in Spain, a study found the trace virus in the wastewater collected in mid-January in Barcelona, about 40 days before the first case was discovered. | 19:04 |
| nixonix | French scientists said tests on samples from drainage in May showed a patient treated for suspected pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus. | 19:04 |
| nixonix | The findings echo similar discoveries elsewhere in Europe suggesting the coronavirus was circulating globally well before Chinese authorities flagged the new infection on December 31. | 19:05 |
| nixonix | when were those strange pneumonia cases in italy? | 19:05 |
| xrogaan | Chinese authorities are still preventing any kind of foreign taskforce to enter and study the virus. | 19:14 |
| nixonix | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG | 19:14 |
| nixonix | %title | 19:14 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.reuters.com: Italian scientists investigate possible earlier emergence of coronavirus - Reuters | 19:14 |
| nixonix | it was from march, that news | 19:14 |
| nixonix | but it will take a while to spread, until it shows up in sewer samples | 19:15 |
| genera | how do they do those tests? | 19:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +333 cases (now 9613) since 8 hours ago — Brazil: +25384 cases (now 1.0 million), +530 deaths (now 48427) since 2 hours ago — World: +29427 cases (now 8.7 million), +667 deaths (now 458860) since 47 minutes ago — Dominican Rep.: +423 cases (now 25068), +12 deaths (now 647) since an hour ago | 19:21 |
| JoeLlama | EEEEPPP!!! | 19:29 |
| LjL | nixonix: not sure if same thing (I'm walking) but I heard today they analyzed sewage water dating from back in December, in Milan and in Turin (which they keep... for some reason), and they found covid RNA in it | 19:37 |
| LjL | Worth noting that as far as we knew until now, the Turin outbreak was "late" | 19:39 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Divergent SARS-CoV-2-specific T and B cell responses in severe but not mild COVID-19 (80 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.18.159202v1 | https://redd.it/hbq84o | 19:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Namibia: +5 cases (now 45) since 8 hours ago — New York, US: +687 cases (now 409113), +46 deaths (now 31138) since 16 hours ago — Ecuador: +634 cases (now 49731), +69 deaths (now 4156) since a day ago — India: +3896 cases (now 392536), +141 deaths (now 12904) since 31 minutes ago | 19:56 |
| user | . | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for French Guiana: +211 cases (now 1969) since a day ago — Liberia: +39 cases (now 581) since a day ago — Moldova: +450 cases (now 13556), +1 deaths (now 450) since 7 hours ago — Pakistan: +3502 cases (now 168564), +65 deaths (now 3294) since 13 hours ago | 20:06 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Genes, Blood Type Tied to Risk of Severe COVID-19. (81 votes) | https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/18/genes-blood-type-tied-to-covid-19-risk-of-severe-disease/ | https://redd.it/hbvt2x | 20:16 |
| LjL | <nixonix> when were those strange pneumonia cases in italy? ← "december", from what i remember, don't have details | 20:17 |
| User1231 | Not spam, need support. Please put "thumbs up": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUt6HIgfQgo | 20:20 |
| User1231 | Not spam, need support. Please put "thumbs up": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUt6HIgfQgo | 20:20 |
| nixonix | i linked an article from march (pneumonia) above. also quotes about these recent sewer findings | 20:22 |
| nixonix | "Adriano Decarli, an epidemiologist and medical statistics professor at the University of Milan, said there had been a “significant” increase in the number of people hospitalized for pneumonia and flu in the areas of Milan and Lodi between October and December last year. He told Reuters he could not give exact figures but “hundreds” more people than usual had been taken to hospital in the last three months of 2019 in those areas - | 20:22 |
| nixonix | two of Lombardy’s worst hit cities - with pneumonia and flu-like symptoms, and some of those had died." | 20:22 |
| Arsanerit | what I don't understand, if the virus was around much earlier and it's so contagious, why did we only see massive community spread in Europe in March? | 20:24 |
| LjL | nixonix, it's a bit handwavy, we really should have more specific who's and when's at this point :\ | 20:27 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, we "see" it because it is advertised as COVID, and because at some point it saturated Lombard hospitals completely. if it was taking place before January, doctors may have noticed there were "too many pneumonias" but evidently it wasn't investigated, or they found no clear answer, and so the media didn't get to know about it... | 20:28 |
| nixonix | it takes a while to spread. unless theres some super spreader or event early on. but it shows up, that trying to find the patient zero in italy was wasted effort, it was already in many places then | 20:29 |
| nixonix | -"up" | 20:29 |
| LjL | sometimes bureaucracy just stops things from happening in Italy. i can easily imagine doctors having duly filed "strange case" reports, and those subsequently having been thoroughly ignored or just sat in an inbox somewhere. | 20:29 |
| LjL | nixonix, well we already did know that the search for patient zero was wasted effort, it was already clear that there were multiple unrelated clusters | 20:30 |
| Arsanerit | but early on they were reporting doubling times of 3 or 4 days | 20:30 |
| LjL | the patient zero search didn't last *that* long | 20:30 |
| Arsanerit | that means that in a month it would increase by a factor 1000 | 20:30 |
| Arsanerit | where those doubling times not true to actual case doublings? | 20:31 |
| LjL | well the doubling time may have been lower. we are now often presuming that viral load has been going down... maybe back then it was lower too, then it surged due to weather or some other reason | 20:31 |
| LjL | but i'm just guessing, i don't know that we can do more than that right now | 20:31 |
| genera | might have been the flu? | 20:32 |
| nixonix | those pneumonia cases? maybe. or maybe sars-2 | 20:33 |
| genera | the ground glass inclusions should have been a warning sign | 20:34 |
| Arsanerit | or maybe it was a less contagious strain that was around earlier? | 20:34 |
| nixonix | or both. and other coronas etc. but i dont think hundreds pneumonia cases caused by sars-2 infection in december, otherwise the infection numbers would have been thousands in dec, tens of thousands in jan, or something like that. but some of them maybe was sars-2 | 20:35 |
| genera | but they have the RNA | 20:35 |
| genera | ok first time i hear a commercial advertizing the corona WARN app | 20:37 |
| genera | but then again i didnt have the radio on before | 20:37 |
| LjL | i don't know, there are still a LOT of uncertain and strange things about this virus | 20:41 |
| LjL | what annoys me is that whenever something is uncertain, many people will insist to take the "it's probably fine" view instead of a precautionary view | 20:41 |
| LjL | it's happened from the start, and it's been quite a disaster | 20:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Egypt: +1774 cases (now 52211), +79 deaths (now 2017) since 22 hours ago — Mauritania: +197 cases (now 2621), +5 deaths (now 102) since 22 hours ago — Louisiana, US: +506 cases (now 49140), +6 deaths (now 3090) since an hour ago — Ohio, US: +562 cases (now 43814), +34 deaths (now 2672) since 49 minutes ago | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia (US), US: +1097 cases (now 62009), +31 deaths (now 2636) since 23 hours ago — Wisconsin, US: +278 cases (now 24154), +11 deaths (now 730) since 23 hours ago — Texas, US: +367 cases (now 103528), +2 deaths (now 2147) since 17 minutes ago — US: +1160 cases (now 2.3 million), +39 deaths (now 121110) since 17 minutes ago | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Utah, US: +586 cases (now 16425), +3 deaths (now 155) since 23 hours ago — Costa Rica: +119 cases (now 2058) since 23 hours ago — US: +592 cases (now 2.3 million), +3 deaths (now 121113) since 17 minutes ago — S. Sudan: +34 cases (now 1864), +2 deaths (now 34) since 18 hours ago | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Tennessee, US: +1188 cases (now 34017), +6 deaths (now 515) since 23 hours ago — Illinois, US: +692 cases (now 135470), +43 deaths (now 6580) since 23 hours ago — US: +2229 cases (now 2.3 million), +55 deaths (now 121168) since 18 minutes ago — Kansas, US: +153 cases (now 12059), +1 deaths (now 254) since 18 minutes ago | 21:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ivory Coast: +430 cases (now 6874) since a day ago — South Africa: +3825 cases (now 87715), +94 deaths (now 1831) since a day ago — Oregon, US: +206 cases (now 6572), +1 deaths (now 188) since a day ago — US: +384 cases (now 2.3 million), +4 deaths (now 121172) since 18 minutes ago | 21:52 |
| Urchin[emacs] | %data croatia | 22:02 |
| Brainstorm | Urchin[emacs]: In Croatia, there have been 2280 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 107 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 71814 tests were performed (3.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data. | 22:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Carolina, US: +1083 cases (now 22631), +18 deaths (now 639) since 23 hours ago — Massachusetts, US: +228 cases (now 106650), +30 deaths (now 7800) since 23 hours ago — US: +1330 cases (now 2.3 million), +49 deaths (now 121221) since 18 minutes ago — World: +1359 cases (now 8.7 million), +49 deaths (now 459633) since 18 minutes ago | 22:07 |
| tinwhiskers | nixonix, LJL, anyone: do you know if we have someone here from Sweden? | 22:10 |
| tinwhiskers | I've been into a bit of a Swedish population rabbit hole. I updated my system to account for double-ups on place names only to find covidly doesn't actually have populations info for Swedish regions so that was all for nothing :-) | 22:11 |
| tinwhiskers | So I decided to plug them in manually but now I see covidly has doubled-up some of the places using different spellings and assigned some cases to each spelling. e.g. Vaesterbotten, Vasterbotten; Vaestmanland, Vasternorrland. | 22:13 |
| tinwhiskers | but anyway, I thought I'd get the population data in anyway, putting the same population down for the duplicates. However, I'm uncertain about "Jaemtland" and "Jaemtland Harjedalen". Are these really different places or just another duplication? | 22:14 |
| tinwhiskers | Also, is Sormland maybe another name for Soedermanland or Stockholm? I don't see a population for it. | 22:15 |
| tinwhiskers | So hoping a local might clarify | 22:15 |
| tinwhiskers | erm, the other duplicate was meant to be Vaesternorrland, Vasternorrland - these names all look like swedish to me :-) | 22:17 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, ugh, sounds like Covidly wants to be JHU 2.0 | 22:18 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 22:18 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 22:19 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, "Södermanland locally Sörmland, sometimes referred to under its Latin form Sudermannia..." | 22:19 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. thank | 22:19 |
| tinwhiskers | s | 22:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guinea-Bissau: +49 cases (now 1541), +2 deaths (now 17) since 3 days ago — Kentucky, US: +257 cases (now 13454), +2 deaths (now 522) since a day ago — Connecticut, US: +47 cases (now 45557), +12 deaths (now 4238) since 21 hours ago — Germany: +210 cases (now 190660), +8 deaths (now 8960) since an hour ago | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Namibia: +5 cases (now 45) since 18 minutes ago — Arkansas, US: +703 cases (now 14631), +6 deaths (now 214) since a day ago — US: +2303 cases (now 2.3 million), +42 deaths (now 121289) since 18 minutes ago — California, US: +693 cases (now 168041), +20 deaths (now 5382) since 4 hours ago | 22:52 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, wow, nice double standards r/covid19 seems to have (unless they delete the other message soon too): https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/hbihs5/formal_request_for_the_retraction_of_zhang_et_al/fvd1ntn/ | 22:58 |
| LjL | you see my message, then you see someone's response, but you don't see my response to their response, which was | 22:58 |
| LjL | Indeed, it has been rather unfair of them not to provide that reasoning to us, and instead, use blatant lies. I will note that masks have been hoarded anyway, and there is no evidence, let alone scientific evidence, that avoiding lies would have made it worse. | 22:58 |
| LjL | Even from a simple practical perspective, it undermines any credibility they had among people, now that the lie has become apparent. Good luck getting me (or many others) to have any trust in anything the WHO says from now on. A pretty short-sighted strategy. | 22:58 |
| LjL | apparently, mine was "off-topic or political", but somehow theirs wasn't | 22:58 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, lying is never going to work out well in the long run | 22:59 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, what about selectively delete posts that denounce lying | 23:00 |
| LjL | deleting* | 23:00 |
| tinwhiskers | well, yeah | 23:00 |
| tinwhiskers | that's not ideal :-) | 23:00 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Airborne SARS-CoV-2 is Rapidly Inactivated by Simulated Sunlight (82 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa334/5856149 | https://redd.it/hc789d | 23:05 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load Predicts COVID-19 Mortality (84 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128934v1 | https://redd.it/hc44ug | 23:05 |
| LjL | ↑ looks important | 23:06 |
| nixonix | we could really use good analysis between us states, with other factors filtered, than the climate | 23:08 |
| nixonix | and sun exposure | 23:08 |
| LjL | i was pointing at the viral load one | 23:09 |
| LjL | although it says "By the end of the study period, 807 werealive (70.5%; mean log10viral load 5.19+/-2.99 viral copies/mL) and338 had died (29.5%; mean log10viral load was 6.44 +/-2.66viral copies/mL)." | 23:09 |
| LjL | the two intervals overlap | 23:09 |
| nixonix | yeah i guessed you were | 23:10 |
| LjL | evidence that viral load matters is important because more and more rumors are accumulating in italy that current cases, aside from being fewer, are *milder* | 23:13 |
| LjL | it's not easy to ensure those rumors don't stem from bias, because, well, doctors are seeing milder cases now, but before, they simply wouldn't see the milder cases as they would have never been brought to hospital | 23:14 |
| LjL | so it's not easy to determine whether this general sensation that "cases are milder" is true or an illusion | 23:14 |
| LjL | but if viral load does matter, then it's likely that lowering viral load is causing this (masks, sunlight, the reason is also important to find of course) | 23:14 |
| nixonix | mild cases are more likely to just stay home, if the situation is bad in hospitals. also if they are not sure if its another ili or something, or sars-2, mild cases are not necessary willing to even go to test - if the risk of getting the actual sars-2 infection is high (in case they might have another ili) | 23:17 |
| nixonix | but viral load thing, naturally if immune response is more succesful in killing the virus, the viral load will be lower, and the outcome likely better. maybe that observation still has some value, i dont know.. | 23:18 |
| LjL | nixonix, if viral load is lower it's also plausible that viral shedding will be in lower amounts, which may both cause you to be less infectious, and if you do infect someone, they may *start* with a lower viral load, even before their immune system comes into play | 23:20 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, oh good god, a mod of the subreddit "invited me to chat" (after i reported that post saying it's at least as political as mine) | 23:21 |
| LjL | who thought realtime chat on reddit was a good idea? | 23:21 |
| LjL | this is why i'm on IRC, because *that* is where i want to chat | 23:21 |
| LjL | on reddit i want to do a different thing, sheesh | 23:21 |
| tinwhiskers | popcorn | 23:22 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, hm that went well, she told me that the second line of my post was the one that crossed the line, and if i edited it out she'd reinstate it | 23:27 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. boring :-p | 23:27 |
| LjL | i guess no matter how i phrase it, the remark that lying has long-term consequences on trust is political, not scientific (unless it's r/sociology) | 23:27 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 23:29 |
| tinwhiskers | sorry, bit distracted | 23:29 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, no problem, i just pointed this incident out to you because i know you uphold wearing masks with a bit of a passion :P | 23:30 |
| tinwhiskers | heh :-) | 23:30 |
| LjL | and have done so since well before the WHO conceded they were good | 23:30 |
| tinwhiskers | I understand the reasons they lied but never thought it was anything but a lie. | 23:31 |
| tinwhiskers | basically they thought people weren't capable of understanding the complexity of the truth so simplified it but in doing so lied. | 23:31 |
| ryouma | it took authorities months to say wear masks that are not medical grade | 23:32 |
| tinwhiskers | and they weren't wrong either | 23:32 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, "we don't have enough masks for everybody, and medical workers need them the most, also to protect all their patients, maybe one day you too" doesn't seem more complex than some of the public messages i've heard | 23:33 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't think in hindsight they made a good call but I'm not all anti-WHO about it either. | 23:33 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah | 23:34 |
| tinwhiskers | fair | 23:34 |
| LjL | granted, at the "maybe one day you too", any Italian would likely do a very specific hand gesture | 23:35 |
| LjL | actually, either one or the other | 23:35 |
| ryouma | stockpiles of masks would have been useful | 23:36 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 23:36 |
| LjL | well the WHO didn't even have the burden of thinking "whoops, but if we tell them that we have no masks, they'll think it's our fault" | 23:37 |
| LjL | since the WHO doesn't keep stocks of masks | 23:37 |
| LjL | ... and neither do governments, apparently, but people may think they should | 23:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Wyoming, US: +29 cases (now 1173), +2 deaths (now 20) since a day ago — Brazil: +23214 cases (now 1.0 million), +527 deaths (now 48954) since 4 hours ago — Peru: +3537 cases (now 247925), +199 deaths (now 7660) since 23 hours ago — Texas, US: +2028 cases (now 105641), +14 deaths (now 2161) since an hour ago | 23:37 |
| ryouma | the us did but gave up keeping it up to date and large enough | 23:38 |
| ryouma | taiwan did | 23:38 |
| LjL | it's almost too easy to posit a correlation between that, and the fact Taiwan is faring well with the epidemic | 23:38 |
| Arsanerit | and maybe having domestic production for such things makes sense too, rather than having everything made in china or even cheaper countries | 23:41 |
| LjL | it's not even a matter of cheap... it's a matter of... everything gets confiscated and it's every man^W country for its own | 23:42 |
| Arsanerit | I mean that the reason production was in China is because of cheap | 23:45 |
| tinwhiskers | I think it's fine to have them produced in China (aside from general ethical issues of supporting producing *anything* in China) provided they are stockpiled in sufficient quantities in each country. | 23:48 |
| Arsanerit | when bringing ethics in it becomes hard where to draw the line | 23:49 |
| tinwhiskers | yes, aside from that | 23:49 |
| Arsanerit | but you're right about stockpiles | 23:49 |
| tinwhiskers | the stockpiles need to be sufficient to carry you through until local production can be mobilised OR sufficient to cover an entire pandemic (which is probably too vast to be practical) | 23:50 |
| tinwhiskers | the former requires you maintain some degree of readiness for production but don't need to bear the full financial burden of keeping it running - e.g. planning to have retooling available in other industries or some such. | 23:53 |
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