libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2020-06-21

BrainstormUpdates for California, US: +3908 cases (now 174831), +61 deaths (now 5488) since 4 hours ago — Brazil: +24411 cases (now 1.1 million), +820 deaths (now 49976) since 4 hours ago — Peru: +3413 cases (now 251338), +201 deaths (now 7861) since a day ago — Texas, US: +2692 cases (now 110337), +18 deaths (now 2192) since 3 hours ago00:23
BrainstormUpdates for Idaho, US: +135 cases (now 4006) since 23 hours ago — Colombia: +2357 cases (now 65633), +80 deaths (now 2126) since 18 hours ago — Nigeria: +661 cases (now 19808), +19 deaths (now 506) since 23 hours ago — World: +3502 cases (now 8.9 million), +102 deaths (now 466330) since 50 minutes ago01:09
BrainstormUpdates for Cameroon: +972 cases (now 11610), +19 deaths (now 301) since a day ago — Panama: +948 cases (now 25222), +8 deaths (now 493) since 23 hours ago — Brazil: +2560 cases (now 1.1 million), +82 deaths (now 50058) since an hour ago — Texas, US: +418 cases (now 110884), +1 deaths (now 2193) since 38 minutes ago01:39
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Six campaign staffers working on Tulsa rally test positive for coronavirus (10485 votes) | https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/20/politics/trump-campaign-staffers/index.html | https://redd.it/hcr81m01:45
BrainstormUpdates for Guam: +22 cases (now 222) since 21 hours ago01:54
BrainstormUpdates for Venezuela: +198 cases (now 3789), +3 deaths (now 33) since 23 hours ago — World: +198 cases (now 9.0 million), +3 deaths (now 466468) since 35 minutes ago02:09
BrainstormUpdates for Bolivia: +1036 cases (now 23512), +25 deaths (now 740) since a day ago — Mexico: +4717 cases (now 175202), +387 deaths (now 20781) since a day ago — Argentina: +1634 cases (now 41204), +12 deaths (now 992) since 9 hours ago — World: +8645 cases (now 9.0 million), +465 deaths (now 466933) since an hour ago03:39
BrainstormUpdates for Honduras: +1048 cases (now 12306), +9 deaths (now 358) since 22 hours ago — World: +1081 cases (now 9.0 million), +9 deaths (now 466942) since an hour ago — Sao Tome and Principe: +5 cases (now 698) since a day ago — New Zealand: +2 cases (now 1511) since a day ago05:05
Jigsy%cases UK05:07
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 303110 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 42589 deaths (14.1% of cases) as of 12 hours ago. 7.7 million tests were performed (3.9% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.05:07
BrainstormUpdates for Gambia: +1 cases (now 37), +1 deaths (now 2) since 2 days ago — World: +1 cases (now 9.0 million), +1 deaths (now 466943) since 26 minutes ago05:20
BrainstormUpdates for Amapa, Brazil: +1652 cases (now 21574), +5 deaths (now 353) since 22 hours ago — Piaui, Brazil: +1246 cases (now 13813), +24 deaths (now 459) since 22 hours ago — O'Higgins, Chile: +514 cases (now 6622), +5 deaths (now 92) since 22 hours ago — Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: +826 cases (now 4990), +7 deaths (now 43) since 3 days ago05:50
Urchin[emacs]%data french guiana06:13
BrainstormUrchin[emacs]: In French Guiana, there have been 2163 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 5 deaths (0.2% of cases) as of 13 hours ago. 277 tests were performed (780.9% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=French%20Guiana for time series data.06:13
BrainstormUpdates for Daejeon, South Korea: +10 cases (now 82) since an hour ago — Pakistan: +4951 cases (now 176617), +119 deaths (now 3501) since 23 hours ago — World: +5519 cases (now 9.0 million), +120 deaths (now 467063) since an hour ago — Haiti: +97 cases (now 5077), +1 deaths (now 88) since 23 hours ago06:50
BrainstormUpdates for Ukraine: +790 cases (now 36615), +9 deaths (now 1004) since 18 hours ago — Victoria, Australia: +44 cases (now 1836) since 2 days ago — Ontario, Canada: +264 cases (now 35044), +25 deaths (now 2650) since a day ago — Quebec, Canada: +124 cases (now 54674), +33 deaths (now 5408) since a day ago07:05
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Trump says he asked for coronavirus testing to be slowed down because there were so many cases (10911 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-rally-speech-tonight-coronavirus-testing-tulsa-covid-19-a9577576.html | https://redd.it/hcxjok07:24
BrainstormUpdates for Ayacucho, Peru: +123 cases (now 1454), +2 deaths (now 13) since a day ago — Amazonas, Peru: +125 cases (now 1565), +2 deaths (now 33) since a day ago — Zakarpattia Oblast, Ukraine: +109 cases (now 2069), +1 deaths (now 54) since a day ago — Sucre, Colombia: +44 cases (now 448), +3 deaths (now 15) since a day ago07:51
tinwhiskersThe situation in the US is certainly interesting. Today's change in daily cases of 14759 isn't quite the largest daily change yet (18272 in April) but the acceleration in that change is way faster than back in April. It may just be that today's increase is noise but it sure looks bad. 09:00
tinwhiskersSee the bottom graph: http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Rate&period=709:01
tinwhiskersand, well, it is the most new cases in a single day now so I guess that is pretty significant itself :-)09:04
pwr22tinwhiskers: Did you hear that there are massively inflated pneumonia deaths in the US that aren't being recorded in the COVID rates?09:08
tinwhiskersno, I hadn't heard that09:09
pwr22I either heard it on here or on twitter09:09
pwr22I didn't have access to the raw data but didn't verify09:09
tinwhiskersit's ok. Trump has directed a reduction in testing so the figures will look better soon09:10
pwr22The gist was that there are > 10x the typical pneumonia deaths right now09:10
pwr22Oh dear09:10
pwr22The current spike there looks very bad09:10
pwr22Is this attributed to the rioting perhaps?09:10
tinwhiskerswell, the timing is about right for that explanation09:11
tinwhiskersthe next 2-3 days will be very telling09:12
tinwhiskersI haven't been on the edge of my seat with covid news for a while now so I'll get the popcorn09:12
pwr22There seems to be a slight upward inflection in the UK as well09:12
tinwhiskersyeah, and Germany09:13
pwr22My thinking was that anywhere that didn't reach herd immunity was going to be hit again this winter09:13
pwr22But I guess maybe it'll be sooner09:13
tinwhiskersnobody will reach herd immunity09:14
pwr22The effect of the pneumonia deaths was such that the US death was was ~400k btw09:14
pwr22That's a scary figure09:14
tinwhiskerswow09:14
tinwhiskersLooks like Sweden has decided it's better to not report their data :-/09:15
tinwhiskers(taking a leaf out of the Trump play-book)09:15
pwr22Ah fantastic09:15
rajrajrajsolar eclipse around 1 hour ago in india https://usercontent.irccloud-cdn.com/file/ttvFTqn5/IMG_20200621_114017.jpg09:16
tinwhiskersrajrajraj: cool. did you get/see totality?09:17
rajrajrajtinwhiskers:  not totally covered yet i guess 09:18
rajrajrajtinwhiskers:  sorry i missed it 09:19
tinwhiskersbummer09:20
BrainstormUpdates for Odisha, India: +304 cases (now 5160), +4 deaths (now 19) since 3 hours ago — Armenia: +560 cases (now 20268), +18 deaths (now 350) since a day ago — Afghanistan: +409 cases (now 28833), +12 deaths (now 581) since 21 hours ago — World: +1468 cases (now 9.0 million), +43 deaths (now 467148) since 2 hours ago09:21
pwr22I've not really touched Cov Bot for ages now, might be time to do some more development on it if this trend keeps up09:21
pwr22And heh, at least my investment of like ~£1k+ on a sweet home office setup seems less extravagant 09:22
pwr22And we do have a protocol for using steroids to improve mortality too so that's good09:22
pwr22I can literally hear way more of my neighbours coughing that would be normal in the summer09:23
tinwhiskersthe rate of ants emerging from my laptop is increasing alarmingly. I may need to invest in a new laptop soon.09:24
tinwhiskersI can't figure out where the buggers are coming from but sometimes my screen looks like I have an ant screensaver running09:25
tinwhiskersI don't hear the neighbours coughing at least09:26
PlanckWalkIf I could hear neighbours coughing I'd need to call an ambulance, since they're far enough away that they probably lost a lung coughing that loudly.09:32
tinwhiskers:-)09:32
pwr22Are they the type that like to eat electrical things?09:36
pwr22<PlanckWalk "If I could hear neighbours cough"> I live in a block of flats (or apartments) with an inner carpark / courtyard that my flat faces so noise propagates around in there09:36
pwr22https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/hbz85d/karen_cant_wear_a_mask_because_of_a_medical/10:12
pwr22I can't believe these people exist10:25
bonz060%cases KE10:32
Brainstormbonz060: In Kenya, there have been 4478 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 121 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 18 hours ago. 130498 tests were performed (3.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 7.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Kenya for time series data.10:32
PlanckWalkpwr22: 10x the usual number of pneumonia deaths would be completely insane.  There are usually a few thousand per week.10:37
PlanckWalk40k extra deaths would be hard to hide10:38
pwr22In the US? the number I saw was more like 400 a month being typical IIRC10:38
pwr22a few thousand a week under normal circumstances would be crazy for a first world country with modern healthcare I think?10:39
pwr22I may be totally wrong, still have no reliable fitures10:40
pwr22Beyond "In 2012, of the 28,952 deaths from pneumonia" in the UK10:40
pwr22Hmm, actually that would be "556" a week in the UK alone, which is actually higher than a few thousand a week10:42
pwr22Assuming US is comparable then it'd be about 3k a week10:42
pwr22So yeah, you're right there PlanckWalk 10:43
tinwhiskersThere should be some data on excess deaths for the US that will give you an idea of whether that's plausible. 10:51
PlanckWalkThe US has a great many people.  3-4k per week is a tiny fraction, and everyone dies of something in the end.10:53
BrainstormUpdates for Namibia: +9 cases (now 55) since 23 hours ago — Russia: +7728 cases (now 584680), +109 deaths (now 8111) since 23 hours ago — Oman: +905 cases (now 29471), +3 deaths (now 131) since 23 hours ago — Bangladesh: +3531 cases (now 112306), +39 deaths (now 1464) since 23 hours ago11:22
BrainstormUpdates for Malawi: +110 cases (now 730), +3 deaths (now 11) since a day ago — World: +235 cases (now 9.0 million), +3 deaths (now 467361) since 22 minutes ago — Morocco: +118 cases (now 9957) since 16 hours ago — Uganda: +7 cases (now 770) since 23 hours ago11:37
BrainstormUpdates for Puducherry, India: +28 cases (now 366), +1 deaths (now 8) since 6 hours ago — Haryana, India: +115 cases (now 10338), +1 deaths (now 150) since 6 hours ago — Syria: +6 cases (now 204) since 23 hours ago — World: +6 cases (now 9.0 million) since 18 minutes ago11:52
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Airborne SARS-CoV-2 Is Rapidly Inactivated by Simulated Sunlight (80 votes) | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32525979/ | https://redd.it/hd2kaw12:07
BrainstormUpdates for El Salvador: +151 cases (now 4626) since 3 hours ago — Burundi: +40 cases (now 144) since 4 days ago — Romania: +315 cases (now 24045), +12 deaths (now 1512) since a day ago — Philippines: +652 cases (now 30052), +19 deaths (now 1169) since 19 hours ago12:22
BrainstormUpdates for Madagascar: +93 cases (now 1596), +1 deaths (now 14) since 20 hours ago — World: +296 cases (now 9.0 million), +6 deaths (now 467399) since 19 minutes ago — Switzerland: +49 cases (now 31292) since 20 hours ago12:37
ArsaneritPositively surprised that we only had to ask three times before Condor fulfilled our request for reimbursement rather than voucher (after rejecting the initial voucher, they tried to bribe us with an extra bonus voucher).12:50
BrainstormUpdates for Benin: +115 cases (now 765), +2 deaths (now 13) since a day ago — Qatar: +881 cases (now 87369), +4 deaths (now 98) since 22 hours ago — Kuwait: +505 cases (now 39650), +7 deaths (now 326) since 22 hours ago — Iran: +2368 cases (now 204952), +116 deaths (now 9623) since 22 hours ago14:52
BrainstormUpdates for Tamil Nadu, India: +2532 cases (now 59377), +53 deaths (now 757) since 10 hours ago — Saudi Arabia: +3379 cases (now 157612), +37 deaths (now 1267) since 23 hours ago — Virginia, US: +551 cases (now 57994), +4 deaths (now 1611) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1221 cases (now 304331), +43 deaths (now 42632) since 23 hours ago15:52
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Invasive Aspergillosis as an Underrecognized Superinfection in COVID-19 (81 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofaa242/5859620#.Xuy9B-k7FXk.twitter | https://redd.it/hd0u9l16:03
BrainstormUpdates for Altay, Russia: +61 cases (now 397), +5 deaths (now 5) since 10 hours ago — Karachay-Cherkessia, Russia: +166 cases (now 2805), +19 deaths (now 28) since 10 hours ago — Altay Territory, Russia: +145 cases (now 3298), +3 deaths (now 27) since 10 hours ago — Komi-Permyak, Russia: +119 cases (now 2806), +36 deaths (now 64) since 10 hours ago16:22
BrainstormUpdates for Mozambique: +45 cases (now 733), +1 deaths (now 5) since a day ago — Goa, India: +64 cases (now 818) since 11 hours ago — Delhi, India: +3000 cases (now 59746), +63 deaths (now 2175) since 11 hours ago — Moldova: +247 cases (now 14200), +8 deaths (now 473) since 35 minutes ago16:52
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Severe COVID-19 in the young and healthy: monogenic inborn errors of immunity? (82 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0373-7 | https://redd.it/hd6b4317:04
BrainstormUpdates for Turks and Caicos: +2 cases (now 14) since a month ago — Arizona, US: +2592 cases (now 52390), +1 deaths (now 1339) since a day ago — Florida, US: +3494 cases (now 97291), +17 deaths (now 3164) since 22 hours ago — US: +7103 cases (now 2.3 million), +24 deaths (now 122045) since an hour ago17:52
LjL"Turks and Caicos"?17:55
LjL%wik Turks and Caicos17:55
BrainstormTypeError: argument of type 'NoneType' is not iterable (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/natlang.py", line 362, in langcode)17:55
LjLtinwhiskers, is Covidly literally inventing places17:55
LjLoh they're islands17:56
LjLa british overseas territory that uses the dollar, fun17:56
BrainstormUpdates for Azerbaijan: +491 cases (now 12729), +6 deaths (now 154) since a day ago — Iraq: +1646 cases (now 30868), +87 deaths (now 1100) since a day ago — Minnesota, US: +453 cases (now 32920), +8 deaths (now 1412) since a day ago — Indiana, US: +362 cases (now 42423), +4 deaths (now 2540) since a day ago18:07
BrainstormUpdates for Oklahoma, US: +478 cases (now 10515), +1 deaths (now 369) since a day ago — Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: +827 cases (now 16039), +108 deaths (now 693) since 4 days ago — South Carolina, US: +875 cases (now 24661), +9 deaths (now 653) since 23 hours ago — Dominican Rep.: +450 cases (now 26228), +4 deaths (now 659) since a day ago18:22
LjLlooks like the United States is having a nicely scary second peak now: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US&cumulative=no&smooth=yes18:32
nixonixTwo new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in New Zealand on Saturday, meaning there are now seven active infections in the country. All seven have been detected in the past week. New Zealand removed all domestic Covid-19 restrictions on June 8.18:36
BrainstormUpdates for Altay, Russia: +61 cases (now 397), +5 deaths (now 5) since 17 minutes ago — Puducherry, India: +28 cases (now 366), +1 deaths (now 8) since 17 minutes ago — Karachay-Cherkessia, Russia: +166 cases (now 2805), +19 deaths (now 28) since 17 minutes ago — Altay Territory, Russia: +145 cases (now 3298), +3 deaths (now 27) since 17 minutes ago18:38
nixonixthe total elimination strategy didnt seem to work, even for an island country18:38
nixonixand i just checked, didnt work for iceland either (not sure what their strategy is though)18:39
ThomCat[m]<LjL "looks like the United States is "> Peak?  Heh, not even close.  18:48
BrainstormUpdates for French Guiana: +278 cases (now 2441), +1 deaths (now 6) since a day ago — Kenya: +260 cases (now 4738), +2 deaths (now 123) since a day ago — Sierra Leone: +18 cases (now 1327), +2 deaths (now 55) since a day ago — World: +670 cases (now 9.0 million), +10 deaths (now 468309) since 20 minutes ago18:53
pwr22LjL: Yes it does look somewhat alarming18:58
BrainstormUpdates for Telangana, India: +730 cases (now 7802), +7 deaths (now 210) since 13 hours ago — Louisiana, US: +319 cases (now 50065), +1 deaths (now 3110) since 18 hours ago — US: +412 cases (now 2.3 million), +1 deaths (now 122069) since 23 minutes ago — World: +439 cases (now 9.0 million), +1 deaths (now 468310) since 23 minutes ago19:08
BrainstormUpdates for Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: +827 cases (now 16039), +108 deaths (now 693) since 48 minutes ago — Delaware, US: +94 cases (now 10775), +1 deaths (now 435) since a day ago — New Jersey, US: +194 cases (now 171981), +9 deaths (now 12994) since 15 hours ago — US: +299 cases (now 2.3 million), +10 deaths (now 122079) since 19 minutes ago19:23
BrainstormUpdates for Altay, Russia: +61 cases (now 397), +5 deaths (now 5) since 18 minutes ago — Telangana, India: +730 cases (now 7802), +7 deaths (now 210) since 18 minutes ago — Puducherry, India: +28 cases (now 366), +1 deaths (now 8) since 18 minutes ago — Karachay-Cherkessia, Russia: +166 cases (now 2805), +19 deaths (now 28) since 18 minutes ago19:38
thedotconnector[Seeking further intel and insights on this: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/19:58
LjLthedotconnector[, here's a study on how many remain symptom-free and how many get serious https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471 which seems to decidedly contradict the statement that "Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. Over 95% of all persons develop at most moderate symptoms."20:08
LjLthedotconnector[, and here's a comparison to average seasonal influenza https://rpubs.com/tonynick/covidinfoecd which makes "the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% and thus in the range of a strong seasonal influenza (flu)" sound very dubious20:08
LjL"Up to 60% of all persons may already have a certain cellular background immunity to Covid19 due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses)." is potentially true, it's been found by a recent study to be between 40 and 60% and to provide some degree of immunity to COVID too20:09
thedotconnector[Thanks LjL. I'm an analyst with several pandemic response groups and am currently conducting an investigation, so I appreciate the assist.20:09
LjL"The median or average age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions." is basically a litany now the way it keeps being repeated, but what is meant by "serious" conditions should be thoroughly investigated, because which 80 year old (or even 70) doesn't have some high blood pressure or some other conditions? those are typically included20:10
LjLthedotconnector[, the studies i gave you are taken from my evolving list of resources at https://covid19.specops.network/ so you may find other interesting studies or information there20:10
thedotconnector[Cheers. I'll be sure to accredit you where appropriate. 20:11
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Europe suppressed the coronavirus. The U.S. has not. (10151 votes) | https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/europe-suppressed-the-coronavirus-the-u-s-has-not-85485125688 | https://redd.it/hd778s20:11
LjL"Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital." this is probably true, only as a hunch, but i doubt that "lockdown" changed much. if people are afraid to go to the hospital, they are afraid lockdown or no lockdown. i'd count *these* as 20:12
LjLCOVID-related deaths if anything, even if not directly caused by COVID20:12
LjLthedotconnector[, one interesting thing to look at is excess mortality, which some countries provides, with various degrees of granularity. that way, since COVID numbers are always dubious in every country, you can see just how many more people died so far compared to normal deaths during this period of the year20:12
LjL"Strong increases in regional mortality can occur if there is a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick as a result of infection or panic" makes me start to be annoyed at the repeated mention of "panic". ICU beds getting filled up and triage being necessary has nothing to do with "panic".20:14
LjLi live in Lombardy by the way, so i may have strong feelings about this... doesn't mean they are incorrect feelings though: until february everybody here was like "no need to worry, it won't come, it's a Chinese thing, it'll be like SARS at worst"20:15
LjLnow that we have found there IS a lot of reason to worry, some people still stretch things to try and convince the rest of us that we're worrying needlessly. i'm pretty sure the mortality data i've seen give no indication of *needless* worry.20:16
LjL"Sweden was even praised by the WHO" ← lol, this seems like a good reason to avoid Sweden's approach. the WHO are the ones who have insisted for way too long that masks shouldn't be worn.20:18
thedotconnector[I appreciate this. A lot of the language being used suggests to me that this is a disinformation nest masquerading as a legitimate study. There is too much bias and too little neutrality where there ought to be, as well as some serious gaps in the data as one continues reading.20:18
LjL"At no time was there a medical reason for the closure of schools, as the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low." ← that's not the only reason to close schools. schools involve a lot of *adults* moving around (parents) and having contacts with one another (teachers), so while it's certainly an arguable decision, whether children are directly affected is not the only factor in the decision20:20
LjLthedotconnector[, well it's full of links to actual studies, it probably would be interesting to read them with a critical eye and see if the conclusions reached by the articles are actually supported by the studies shown20:21
bin_bashthe WHO is a joke20:21
genevinoLjL: "no need to worry, it won't come, it's a Chinese thing, it'll be like SARS at worst"20:22
thedotconnector[I have to wonder whether or not the authors simply grabbed a whole ton of studies, compiled them and then started writing commentary.20:22
genevinoLjL: it was exactly like that in germany, too, from what i noticed20:22
LjLspeaking of the WHO, if "A 2019 WHO study on public health measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”", then i wonder why the WHO director general vehemently recommended relentless testing and contact tracing for like a month every single day in their press confs20:23
genevinobin_bash: so is the RKI20:23
bin_bashLjL: yeah...20:23
bin_bashgenevino: less so than the WHO though but I haven't been keeping up too much witht hem20:24
genevinoLjL: i heard that "no need to worry, it won't come" thing probably a hundred times here in frankfurt before it came20:24
genevinobin_bash: yea true20:24
LjLgenevino, it's easier to deny terrifying things than to stop and think and end up terrified20:25
bin_bashyep20:25
LjLall this said, yes, it will also have a dramatic impact on economy, people will die indirectly due to all that, and that's not something to be discounted at all. but the 1918 flu itself showed that countries what managed the pandemic better also ended up with better economy. right now, Sweden's economy is not going well at all.20:26
genevinoi guess trump is still in denial20:26
bin_bashLjL: yeah and that's why it's esp bad that the US does not have a leader20:28
bin_bashand i really hope trump is not re-elected in november and whomever wins takes a real lead from science 20:28
LjLthedotconnector[, also, some cherry picking in that choice of studies/things:20:29
LjLthe study linked in the "A 2019 WHO study on public health measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”." statement20:29
genevinobin_bash: i can well think of the americans to be stupid enough to re-elect him20:30
LjL1) it is specifically talking about *influenza* pandemics, where the WHO believes they simply can't be stopped, and said so repeatedly in the press conference, UNLIKE this virus, which they believed could be stopped, hence recommending contact tracing20:30
bin_bashgenevino: unfortunately same20:30
LjL2) the same study, on the same page they link, says that when the level of risk is "high", then "face masks for public" ARE recommended20:31
LjLthat is at odds with the article's statement that "There is also no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of face masks in healthy or asymptomatic individuals"20:31
LjL(although i could believe that the WHO recommends them without evidence, just as, in reality, they have ended up recommending *against* them without any evidence, just because there was a shortage)20:31
LjLso they are linking a bunch of different things that contradict each other, at least if you don't consider the fact that the WHO paper is just about influenza and so doesn't apply to COVID in the first place20:32
tinwhiskersnixonix: the elimination strategy did work as in we cleared all cases but then we imported new cases from overseas. The major screwup was allowing two people in quarantine to leave early on compassionate grounds who then turned out to be infected. The other cases are people arriving from overseas as well and the cases have been detected while still in quarantine. Other than that screwup the country has had no cases internally.20:46
tinwhiskersLet's just hope today screwup hasn't let to more community spread but if so we've already demonstrated our contact tracing is capable of clearing it. i.e. the strategy can work.20:48
tinwhiskers*let's just hope that screwup20:48
thedotconnector[The Tulsa Rally last night reportedly drew just over 6,000 individuals into the stadium, but the crowds outside (which also included protestors) was quite large. We're obviously very concerned about this. It's not an ideal situation when leadership is basically not aware of what we are or, most likely, chooses politics over public safety. That said, one thing we're investigating from an interesting POV is how a20:51
thedotconnector[sizeable number of folks using TikTok helped to spread the idea of buying tickets and then not showing up to slow the spread.20:51
thedotconnector[I have my own feelings on TikTok due to its connections to the PRC and would prefer it not be used by anyone lol, but it's fascinating how that went viral and I'm wondering if it can be engineered in similar ways for awareness campaigns and other actions.20:51
thedotconnector[and genevino, I apologize on behalf of the bumpkins who unfortunately happen to be my countrymen 🥴20:52
BrainstormUpdates for Zimbabwe: +10 cases (now 489), +2 deaths (now 6) since 2 days ago — Maharashtra, India: +3870 cases (now 132075), +186 deaths (now 6170) since 15 hours ago — India: +3870 cases (now 426473), +186 deaths (now 13695) since an hour ago — US: +1353 cases (now 2.3 million), +3 deaths (now 122130) since an hour ago20:53
tinwhiskersLjL: I was just looking into making R available in the bot data but have a conundrum that'll you'll need to decide.21:08
tinwhiskersMy R data is time-series R values so the problem with bleeding edge covidly data isn't really a huge problem, but since you want only the latest R value that comes into play. I either need some way to resolve that issue properly, you live with faulty R values or use the legacy data in which case the range of locations with R values will be limited.21:10
LjLtinwhiskers, legacy could be okay enough, it's just an additional bit of info i thought the bot could provide without too many side effects, if it can't provide it for every single region it's probably okay, the more regional you get the coarser the graphs become and the less reliable these values anyway21:12
tinwhiskersok21:13
tinwhiskerstrue21:13
LjLit's going to have US states anyway which is probably what people would mostly complain about if they weren't there21:13
tinwhiskersyes21:13
LjLnow we have radio news O.o21:14
riot_ju[m]<riot_ju[m] "2020-06-21 02-11-22p. m."> Is an spanish audio .. covid in colombia.riot_ju:  buena tarde21:16
LjLhi riot_ju[m]21:17
LjLi mostly understood what you said21:17
LjLthere was a special license to sell without taxes?21:17
LjLresulting in crowds in markets and malls?21:17
riot_ju[m]así es. se hizo una excelente labor de cuarentena se hizo distanciamiento social se cerraron comercios pero en la reapertura se estimuló el comercio descontando impuestos y eso hizo que todos los habitantes fueron en masa a formar conglomeraciones en los centros comerciales fue un suceso inesperado muchos gobernantes de los diferentes departamentos declararon toque de queda el problema es que para Julio están pensand21:22
riot_ju[m]hacer algo parecido es muy similar a lo del black friday21:22
LjLriot_ju[m], en muchos paises se estan haciendo "reapertura" y no siempre de manera ponderata y con bastante atención a que no se pierdan todos los efectos beneficos del "lockdown". parece que si antes todos estaban concentrados en el COVID, ahora todos sólo piensan a la economía21:25
LjLnecesita una solución intermedia21:25
ubLIXsome are optimistic about expanding the use of disinfecting UV-C devices: https://www.biospace.com/article/uv-c-light-kills-sars-cov-2-triggering-novel-lighting-options-for-public-spaces/22:05
ubLIXnoted the article i just posted in -19 mentioned UVC as possible cause of conjuntivitis; but since looking at wikipedia, UVC related conjunctivitis seems to take a different form, and requires prolonged exposure (welders and such)22:09
tinwhiskersyeah, I'm sceptical that UVC in quantities not sufficient to harm a person will do much to a virus either. UVC sterilising units use high intensity light and you should not look inside them. Seems like wishful thinking.22:11
tinwhiskers"UV-C light splits the bonds that keep DNA intact, forming free radicals and inactivating the organism" - this is really not what we want in areas we are exposed to for long periods of time22:14
tinwhiskersThis seems akin to saying we should drink bleach because bleach is effective at killing the virus.22:15
ubLIX"and one lighting fixture manufacturer is incorporating the lamps into conventional light fittings" - yikes22:18
tinwhiskersUV-C won't even give us a tan or produce vitamin D :-(22:23
tinwhiskers"UVC is not an issue for terrestrial solar UVR because it is completely absorbed by the ozone layer. In any case, UVC is strongly attenuated by chromophores in the upper epidermis (Young, 1997) and UVC-induced DNA damage in the dividing basal layer of human epidermis is not readily detected (Campbell et al, 1993; Chadwick et al, 1995) which may explain why the dose response curve for UVC erythema in human skin is very much less steep 22:26
tinwhiskersthan for UVB (Diffey and Farr, 1991). It is unlikely that UVC from artificial sources presents an acute or long-term hazard to human skin. However, UVC is likely to cause acute photokeratitis"22:26
tinwhiskersMaybe it's not so bad22:26
Urchin[emacs]%data croatia22:38
BrainstormUrchin[emacs]: In Croatia, there have been 2317 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 107 deaths (4.6% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 72478 tests were performed (3.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data.22:38
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality during an outbreak investigation in a skilled nursing facility (81 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa763/5858271 | https://redd.it/hd6s4i22:55
tinwhiskers%cases USA23:27
Brainstormtinwhiskers: In US, there have been 2.4 million confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 122224 deaths (5.2% of cases) as of 9 minutes ago. 28.0 million tests were performed (8.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 11.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.23:27

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