| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +12245 cases (now 25.0 million), +402 deaths (now 841264) since 32 minutes ago — Colombia: +8498 cases (now 590520), +299 deaths (now 18767) since 22 hours ago — US: +3165 cases (now 6.1 million), +80 deaths (now 185787) since 32 minutes ago — St. Martin: +15 cases (now 213) since 2 days ago | 00:20 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Alabama updates COVID numbers, more than 1,000 students positive since return → https://is.gd/ZW9yJg | 00:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: CDC warns vaccine supply could be limited at first; Dow recovers 2020 losses → https://is.gd/PzoSAl | 00:49 |
| ryouma | what about the broader indexes | 00:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Abbott is testing its rapid coronavirus test on asymptomatic people in hopes of expanding FDA authorization → https://is.gd/pBCzy9 | 00:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Argentina: +11717 cases (now 392009), +142 deaths (now 8271) since 8 hours ago — World: +13671 cases (now 25.0 million), +199 deaths (now 841463) since 47 minutes ago — Fr. Polynesia: +67 cases (now 482) since a day ago — US: +810 cases (now 6.1 million), +37 deaths (now 185824) since 47 minutes ago | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet: [Correspondence] Health and medicine cannot solve COVID-19: Richard Horton argues that combination prevention and global health collaboration are required to address the COVID-19 pandemic.1 We agree and suggest this should incorporate further measures. Thinking closely in terms of medical solutions could create false public [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/vznpO6 | 01:09 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/health/iowa-coronavirus-cases-covid-19-positivity-rate-antigen-results-20200828 | 01:10 |
| LjL | quick tests can be useful, or, a mess. devil in the details i guess | 01:10 |
| de-facto | hmm interesting | 01:11 |
| de-facto | another example on how much the positive rate depends on testing strategies... | 01:12 |
| de-facto | well they speak of "antigen tests" whatever they mean by those | 01:13 |
| de-facto | i guess results may differ wildly across the market | 01:13 |
| LjL | well you've seen yourself how many different tests there are | 01:16 |
| LjL | i think "antigen tests" can be taken as "anything that's not PCR but detects viral features (so not antibodies)" right now | 01:16 |
| LjL | i guess the general idea is if you can highlight the fact that some antigen binds to things that are supposedly specific to viral proteins, then you get a result, with no need to amplify any RNA | 01:17 |
| de-facto | yeah possibly specificity may be not so good for some of those | 01:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1603 cases (now 25.0 million), +54 deaths (now 841517) since 17 minutes ago — Panama: +642 cases (now 90624), +18 deaths (now 1966) since 23 hours ago — US: +473 cases (now 6.1 million), +13 deaths (now 185837) since 17 minutes ago — British Virgin Islands: +9 cases (now 35) since 2 days ago | 01:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, well going by the article, technicians were basically "forced" to assign previously-"inconclusive" tests as either positive or negative | 01:21 |
| de-facto | i find it highly unlikely that they would get a real increase in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence when they widen their testing with a less than RT-PCR sensitive test unless they get loads of false positives due to much lower specificity | 01:21 |
| LjL | there's probably a reason they had called them inconclusive in the first plae | 01:21 |
| de-facto | lower sensitivity would be fine when tests would be seen as time local predictor for infectiousness state rather than testing for being infected, yet they always have to be specific enough, otherwise their predictive ability is of little help | 01:23 |
| Haley[mt][m] | %cases Brazil | 01:58 |
| Brainstorm | Haley[mt][m]: In Brazil, there have been 3.8 million confirmed cases (1.8% of the population) and 119594 deaths (3.1% of cases) as of 39 minutes ago. 14.2 million tests were performed (26.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil for time series data. | 01:58 |
| ryouma | one of these days i will be as immediately familiar with sensitivity and selectivity as with false pos/neg; until then i have to puzzle it out for a second | 01:59 |
| LjL | ryouma, yeah, took me a while. but "specific" means it doesn't catch other things, and "sensitive" means it does readily catch the thing | 02:00 |
| david594_ | ryouma SPIN and SNOUT | 02:00 |
| david594_ | Sensitivity is Snout - Sensitivyt rules it out | 02:01 |
| david594_ | SPIN - specificity rules it in | 02:01 |
| ryouma | ah good | 02:01 |
| ryouma | and then ther eis type 1 and type 2 errors | 02:02 |
| LjL | okay those i just have to look up | 02:02 |
| david594_ | those have more to do with inadequacy of the dataset | 02:02 |
| david594_ | if you want a good mindfuck, go read about positive predictive value and negative predictives values | 02:02 |
| david594_ | which is just a reflection of sensitivity and specificity when you factor in disease prevalence within the population. | 02:03 |
| ryouma | which you should do presumably | 02:03 |
| ryouma | but then you need gold standard of some type which you don't always have i guess | 02:04 |
| david594_ | LjL your understanding is fairly correct for specific, but a very sensitive testive just means that your negative test is truely negative and you are not missing possitive cases | 02:04 |
| david594_ | ryouma - you always have a gold standard | 02:04 |
| david594_ | think about it, doesnt mean its perfect, just means its the best available | 02:05 |
| LjL | david594_, that's compatible with what i said... if the thing is there, it catches it. hence if it turns out negative, the thing isn't there. | 02:05 |
| david594_ | No, your not quite correct, you can have a test that is very sensitive IE- no false negatives but could have a super high number of false positives | 02:06 |
| LjL | which means if the thing is there, it catches it (turns out positive) | 02:07 |
| david594_ | A very sensitive test is desirable for a screening test because you dont want to miss cases, and depending on the disese process would likely require follow-up testing with a more specific test to insure the diagnosis is correct | 02:07 |
| david594_ | No, senstive tests just mean you can trust a negative, says nothing about positive results being accurate | 02:07 |
| LjL | and neither have i | 02:07 |
| LjL | by "it catches it" i mean that it turns out positive, as clarified | 02:08 |
| david594_ | "> which means if the thing is there, it catches it (turns out positive)" | 02:08 |
| LjL | a very sensitive COVID test, if you have COVID, will say "positive". which, in turn, means that if it says "negative", you're very unlikely to have COVID | 02:08 |
| david594_ | ... you might be right.... | 02:08 |
| LjL | nothing in this implies that it will NOT say "positive" if you do NOT have COVID | 02:09 |
| LjL | it may say "positive" 100% of the time | 02:09 |
| LjL | that'd be a very sensitive test | 02:09 |
| LjL | (and also useless, of course) | 02:09 |
| david594_ | sensitive tests are just meant for screening | 02:09 |
| david594_ | negative, go on with life and dont worry about it | 02:09 |
| LjL | you're thinking in terms of what they're meant for | 02:09 |
| david594_ | why else do we test? | 02:10 |
| LjL | i'm talking in terms of what it means for a test to be sensitive, regardless of usefulness | 02:10 |
| LjL | i've never asked or answered the question "why do we test" | 02:10 |
| david594_ | fair | 02:10 |
| david594_ | You won the internet for this argument | 02:11 |
| LjL | great | 02:11 |
| LjL | %addpoint LjL | 02:11 |
| Brainstorm | ljl: +3/-1, 2 | 02:11 |
| david594_ | Id buy you a beer... but its the internet | 02:11 |
| LjL | plus i wouldn't go to a pub currently | 02:12 |
| LjL | so i'd rather just drink my lonesome limoncello while i play a lonesome game of 0AD | 02:12 |
| david594_ | heck no, socially distanced | 02:12 |
| david594_ | OAD? | 02:12 |
| LjL | just an open source strategy game at which the AI consistently beats me | 02:12 |
| david594_ | Sounds depressing. Cant you just play minesweeper and feel equally bad? | 02:13 |
| ryouma | i have tried that one | 02:13 |
| ryouma | in one game i didn't realize the whole ally thing and started a battle with my ally | 02:13 |
| LjL | david594_, slightly less RSI in this one | 02:13 |
| LjL | ryouma, lol, you can set this one up so that it's physically impossible | 02:13 |
| stick | try battle chess or lazer chess | 02:13 |
| david594_ | cant we all just play fortnite and get along? | 02:14 |
| LjL | also i was playing it with a human adversary until reently when i made them mad by being argumentative in a way... | 02:14 |
| LjL | well, sort of like i just was | 02:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for N. Cyprus: +99 cases (now 311) since 11 days ago — World: +1537 cases (now 25.0 million), +36 deaths (now 841553) since an hour ago — US: +1219 cases (now 6.1 million), +33 deaths (now 185870) since an hour ago — France: +699 cases (now 282302) since 6 hours ago | 02:20 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Millions of Americans could lose their electricity as COVID-19 shutoff moratoriums expire (10026 votes) | https://carbonswitch.co/energy-insecurity-and-covid-19 | https://redd.it/iiawsh | 03:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Woman may have caught coronavirus in airplane toilet, researchers say → https://is.gd/LAtNyV | 03:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus*: Coronavirus: School closures had positive effects on some teenagers' mental health, our new research suggests → https://is.gd/qVC2UP | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Leaders in Iowa's biggest cities and counties say they don't trust the state's coronavirus numbers → https://is.gd/kiPuLL | 04:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: ‘End of the Line’: School Bus Industry in Crisis Because of the Coronavirus → https://is.gd/mQu8mC | 04:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: University of Alabama now has more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases -- with nearly 500 in the past three days → https://is.gd/0wjHE9 | 04:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +18630 cases (now 25.0 million), +862 deaths (now 842415) since 2 hours ago — Peru: +7964 cases (now 629961), +194 deaths (now 28471) since a day ago — Jamaica: +141 cases (now 2011) since a day ago — Mexico: +5824 cases (now 585738), +552 deaths (now 63146) since a day ago | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Northwestern University announces it won’t have freshmen and sophomores on campus and will close fraternity and sorority houses because of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/B7zi1F | 04:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Honduras: +1141 cases (now 58810), +24 deaths (now 1827) since a day ago — World: +1748 cases (now 25.0 million), +26 deaths (now 842441) since 18 minutes ago — Belgium: +452 cases (now 83952) since 21 hours ago — Curacao: +5 cases (now 62) since 5 hours ago | 04:51 |
| JacobBlake | A 1-year-old boy has died from Covid-19 in Georgia, the state health department says. He is the youngest reported victim in the state | 05:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: White House suggests $1.3 trillion coronavirus aid bill; Pelosi says not enough → https://is.gd/K8tSiU | 05:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: [China] Update on COVID-19 Pandemic Situation as of 24:00 28/08/2020 → https://is.gd/UPHGTR | 05:59 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 06:20 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 332399 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 45712 deaths (13.8% of cases) as of an hour ago. 18.3 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 06:21 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: New measures to support development of safe COVID-19 vaccines for UK (80 votes) | https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-measures-to-support-development-of-safe-covid-19-vaccines-for-uk | https://redd.it/iiasik | 06:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 80% Covid patients in India are asymptomatic, health ministry analysis finds → https://is.gd/iEJqhp | 06:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: any mask is better than no masks n95decon.org shows the effectiveness of different masks types and reusing them they have now updated their site with more research → https://is.gd/XqGWER | 06:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +13744 cases (now 25.0 million), +79 deaths (now 842520) since 2 hours ago — France: +4508 cases (now 288655) since 2 hours ago — India: +2732 cases (now 3.5 million) since 9 hours ago — Ukraine: +1965 cases (now 117172), +36 deaths (now 2499) since 2 hours ago | 07:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of 821 Older Patients with SARS-Cov-2 Infection Admitted to Acute Care Geriatric Wards → https://is.gd/FcZ5rY | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Children's role in spread puzzles scientists → https://is.gd/BLQJCL | 07:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Feelings: No gatherings, little fun, a low-key sadhya: Malayalis’ Onam plans amid the pandemic → https://is.gd/53ZIWd | 07:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Odisha, India: +3682 cases (now 94668), +8 deaths (now 456) since a day ago — Illinois, US: +2436 cases (now 231186), +20 deaths (now 8206) since a day ago — Puducherry, India: +590 cases (now 13024), +9 deaths (now 199) since a day ago — Murcia, Spain: +370 cases (now 5455), +1 deaths (now 156) since a day ago | 07:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: AC can boost COVID-19's spread indoors → https://is.gd/mueL8Q | 07:56 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Diagnosing COVID-19 infection: the danger of over-reliance on positive test results (80 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080911v3 | https://redd.it/iifz08 | 08:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Richmond mayor credits proactive Chinese population for keeping COVID-19 cases down → https://is.gd/8cgnG9 | 08:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Art and Culture: Mozart meets COVID-19: Finnish opera adapts classic piece → https://is.gd/vft7YC | 08:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Secondary schools to move to rota system if virus cases rise → https://is.gd/1Iwokz | 08:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Coronavirus Global Updates, 29 August: Wuhan to reopen schools this week; Argentina relaxes curbs despite record single day case spike → https://is.gd/eqT0gx | 09:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Rival themes emerge as race enters final weeks: Covid vs. Law and Order → https://is.gd/U03F7V | 09:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +10254 cases (now 25.0 million), +221 deaths (now 842743) since 2 hours ago — Hungary: +158 cases (now 5669) since a day ago — Russia: +4941 cases (now 985346), +111 deaths (now 17025) since 23 hours ago — India: +4300 cases (now 3.5 million), +37 deaths (now 62750) since 2 hours ago | 09:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Secondary schools to move to rota system if virus cases rise → https://is.gd/1Iwokz | 09:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +3308 cases (now 169195), +92 deaths (now 7261) since a day ago — Austria: +395 cases (now 26985) since 21 hours ago — World: +7468 cases (now 25.0 million), +189 deaths (now 842932) since 49 minutes ago — Philippines: +3587 cases (now 213131), +94 deaths (now 3419) since a day ago | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: New York City tenants say they were tricked into appearing in RNC video → https://is.gd/2HYdpg | 11:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US regulators allow remdesivir for hospitalised → https://is.gd/u2XL59 | 11:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: France records 'exponential' increase in Covid-19 cases → https://is.gd/PfZBIw | 12:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Children can carry coronavirus in their noses for up to three weeks, according to a study from South Korea. → https://is.gd/KJRQoN | 12:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELL'INTERNO - COMUNICATO: Incorporazione con effetto estintivo della Confraternita S. GiuseppePatriarca nella Confraternita S. Biagio e Santa Filomena, in Lecce.(20A04626) → https://is.gd/STfZJT | 12:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Secondary schools to move to rota system if virus cases rise → https://is.gd/1Iwokz | 13:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Kutztown University professor regrets telling students to seek out COVID-19, 'get it over with' — Dr. Victor Massad says he's mulling retirement after 'huge lapse of judgment' → https://is.gd/HIcao9 | 13:26 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Pregnant teacher dies of coronavirus three days after surprise baby shower (10014 votes) | https://www.newsweek.com/pregnant-woman-dies-coronavirus-three-days-after-surprise-baby-shower-1528271 | https://redd.it/iiif94 | 13:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Children with no COVID-19 symptoms may shed virus for weeks: Study → https://is.gd/46XjL2 | 13:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Schools could go part-time and year-group bubbles be sent home → https://is.gd/1Iwokz | 14:04 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, do you know what is going on with RKI data? I played around a bit with it and it looks like their reported recoveries went down to nearly 0 on Aug 15-16 (which is a bit unbelievable), Is this the new official way (not reporting recoveries) or a bug in their data pipeline? I would like to estimate active = cases - recoveries, so that makes it pretty much impossible then... | 14:32 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, the curves for daily new recoveries from the RKI data (same download as you are using) look like this: https://imgur.com/a/THyVBx1 <-- note the sharp edge to 0 around Aug 15-16 | 14:48 |
| de-facto | I wonder if this is a bug in their data pipeline and if i should contact them about this | 14:49 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Lung ultrasound predicts clinical course and outcomes in COVID-19 patients (85 votes) | https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s00134-020-06212-1 | https://redd.it/iipfim | 14:53 |
| de-facto | the data is the current CSV from the endpoint https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/f10774f1c63e40168479a1feb6c7ca74/data | 14:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: recoverie always been a synthesized (guessed) value | 15:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I think it's like active cases = sigma(new cases[14d]) - sigma(fatalities[14d]) | 15:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | maybe 30d | 15:08 |
| de-facto | oh so they just stopped estimating those for some (official) reason or is this unintentional (which i suspect since there are some very low numbers like 1-2 for NW or such even after Aug 15-16) | 15:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | unknown, at least to me | 15:08 |
| de-facto | interesting, what is that sigma in your estimate? | 15:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the accumulated number over time | 15:10 |
| de-facto | ah you meant like a mathematical sum function | 15:10 |
| de-facto | but active cases mainly are the new cases with removed recoveries, fortunately the contributions of fatalities are insignificantly low | 15:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | when 4 weeks ago 1000 new cases and 50 fatalities then now 4 weeks later 950 are considered "recoveries" | 15:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you get the picture | 15:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and 950 active cases from that day plus all for the time since then, every day, summed up | 15:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, so active cases are basically sigma of new cases during last 4(?) weeks | 15:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | after 4 weeks you are considered recovered | 15:14 |
| de-facto | ah now i get what you mean: taking the difference of the two accumulated cases sums with a "mean recovery" delay of 14 days between them and remove the fatalities from those | 15:14 |
| de-facto | or 4 weeks or such | 15:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I have no real idea what timespan they apply for recovery calculations, but that's the basic scheme | 15:15 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 15:15 |
| de-facto | what I did for the local cases of my city (which publishes recoveries) adding a "timeslot" of 1 contribution to active cases for each daily new reported case and summing those active cases for two groups: 85% "fast" recoveries contributing ~14d and 15% "slow" recoveries ~30d or such (dont remember the exact numbers anymore) | 15:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the fundamental statement is: there's no reporting of recoveries whatsoever, never been established. The number of recoveries always been calculated from new cases and fatalities numbers which _are_ reported | 15:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no ideas why they don't calculate it anymore,maybe it's not that relevant | 15:19 |
| de-facto | yes those are reported indeed | 15:19 |
| de-facto | cases and fatalities | 15:19 |
| de-facto | without gaps | 15:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 'Without evidence': Once again, FDA expands use of COVID-19 treatment without research to back it up - USA Today, August 28, 2020 → https://is.gd/u2wKBg | 15:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | logically the total (timespan whole event) number of recoveries aproaches the total number of infections minus total number of fatalities. From that figure you may calculate the daily revoery rate by (value_today - value_yesterday) | 15:23 |
| de-facto | cases are raising https://imgur.com/a/bDoUGUE but fortunately fatalities (still?) stay very low https://imgur.com/a/Ue1RvL7 | 15:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | where "recover" is a very fuzzy misleading term, which doesn'T account for all the permanent injuries and disabilities the infected persons are suffering even after officially having "recovered" | 15:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | maybe that's why they stopped reporting that number | 15:25 |
| de-facto | well but it not total stop like all countries strictly 0 or such, just single numbers or 0 | 15:27 |
| de-facto | the problem with the estimate is that one would have to take the age groups into consideration, e.g. have a average "recovery time" for the young that is lower than for elderly which may have a bigger portion requiring hospitalization for recoveries | 15:29 |
| de-facto | all those parameters would be in time flow | 15:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Florida : 487 APD clients have COVID-19, another 47 dead → https://is.gd/dodw6c | 15:32 |
| de-facto | so the contributions "time slots" to active cases may vary for slow, median and fast recovery sub-groups | 15:32 |
| de-facto | or even more groups | 15:32 |
| de-facto | maybe a better estimator could employ the "Altersgruppe" column in their data? | 15:33 |
| de-facto | (Altersgruppe = age_group) | 15:33 |
| de-facto | at least one could try to "recreate" their estimation for the duration they published properly looking recoveries and use that to extrapolate their data beyond 15-16 Aug | 15:35 |
| de-facto | basically i want recoveries to have active cases per citizen to have a number of how many "infectious" individuals currently are among the population which would give an estimate for current probability of infection when meeting people | 15:39 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5 <-- maybe one could estimate "recoveries from infectious status" from their time patterns | 15:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 | Nature Medicine | 15:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: >>all those parameters would be in time flow<< and completely arbitrary. After all what is the meaning of "active cases"and what conclusions could you base on that number? | 15:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | a fact is: every reported new case is an active case for a timespan between 5 and 60 days, after that timespan expired you *call* that case "recovered" (unless they died) But that is useless "info" generated by arbitrary definition | 15:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | a mere semantics issue | 15:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no decision will base on "active cases" ever | 15:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Sinovac's coronavirus vaccine candidate approved for emergency use in China- source → https://is.gd/r2rtHx | 15:51 |
| de-facto | yes thats true, from a epidemiological perspective an "active case" would be the association with the ability of spreading the pathogen to susceptible for a specific timeslot of infectiousness for that sub-group (maybe young spread the pathogen for shorter times than vulnerable or elderly struggling with recoveries?) | 15:54 |
| de-facto | and that would also be the "active cases" entity of most interest to the population asking themselves what the current probability of getting infected would be | 15:54 |
| de-facto | like when i have N contacts per day, how high is the probability that one of those currently is an asymptomatic spreader of the pathogen | 15:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, but "infectious" doesn't really correlate to the "active cases" number and even the used definition | 16:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +27580 cases (now 25.1 million), +500 deaths (now 843432) since 5 hours ago — India: +8978 cases (now 3.5 million), +87 deaths (now 62837) since 6 hours ago — Iraq: +3834 cases (now 227446), +77 deaths (now 6891) since 21 hours ago — Myanmar: +77 cases (now 733) since 5 hours ago | 16:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's known that the incubation time from infection to first relevant effects (I don't call it symptoms since the first effect is the start of spreading the virus some 2 days _before_ 'symptoms' start, if any) is variable between 4 and 10 days or somesuch, and that the virus spreading has peak a maybe 24h _before_ first symtoms sysmtoms and dwindles into irrelevance very shortly after start of symptoms. Quarantine of 14d is already | 16:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | considered "too long", last I heard a 10d would suffice if you extend quarantine when on day10 symptoms get reported. All that subject to fact check, my memory may be fuzzy for the exact timespans. But it shows that for epidemiological considerations the "active cases" as reported in statistics are inappropriate and you need to base those considerations on count of new cases and value in all that I said before | 16:12 |
| de-facto | yes thats described in the paper i linked, especially their Figure 1C | 16:15 |
| de-facto | afaik this is the second version of that paper after some corrections to their R code | 16:15 |
| de-facto | they even publish their full dataset and R code in the "Supplementary information" which makes their statements more trustworthy imho | 16:17 |
| de-facto | their statements are pretty much similar to the timespans you mentioned | 16:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Children with no COVID-19 symptoms may shed virus for weeks → https://is.gd/pIo8aP | 16:20 |
| de-facto | Id guess current number of infectious spreaders per capita (and their trend since data has delay) would be the most useful information to people informing themselves about the daily new numbers | 16:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Berlin Police Disband Protest Against Coronavirus Curbs → https://is.gd/UttQUi | 16:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Governor says Kansas can’t let college students become COVID-19 ‘super-spreaders’ → https://is.gd/1COic2 | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazilian island set to reopen, but only for tourists who have already had Covid-19 → https://is.gd/UB3hDW | 17:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus updates: CDC warns vaccine supply could be limited at first; Dow recovers 2020 losses → https://is.gd/PzoSAl | 18:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus cases climb in the Midwest as more states report growing outbreaks → https://is.gd/oJLoYm | 18:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +1549 cases (now 267064), +39 deaths (now 6284) since a day ago — World: +66921 cases (now 25.1 million), +967 deaths (now 844399) since 2 hours ago — India: +41871 cases (now 3.5 million), +473 deaths (now 63310) since 2 hours ago — US: +16435 cases (now 6.1 million), +328 deaths (now 186314) since 2 hours ago | 18:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Vaccine could be ready for Christmas, says UK health minister → https://is.gd/avxGTW | 19:24 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Vitamin C levels in patients with SARS-CoV-2-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (82 votes) | https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-03249-y | https://redd.it/iiqs3k | 19:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Antiviral used to treat cat coronavirus also works against SARS-CoV-2 → https://is.gd/HqFfSF | 19:43 |
| de-facto | Are the costs for COVID-19 treatment covered by government in USA? e.g. for uninsured in need or would those have the risk to pay huge bills when going to hospital hence be hesitant to get treatment? | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The WHO went to China to open its coronavirus origin investigation – and didn’t even visit Wuhan once → https://is.gd/MT3z9z | 21:04 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Children with no COVID-19 symptoms may shed virus for weeks (83 votes) | https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-08/cnh-cwn081920.php | https://redd.it/iit89l | 21:07 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: A history of the medical mask and the rise of throwaway culture (80 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31207-1/fulltext | https://redd.it/iiqukg | 21:07 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: A single immunization with spike-functionalized ferritin vaccines elicits neutralizing antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 in mice (80 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.28.272518v1 | https://redd.it/iis7q0 | 21:13 |
| Raf[m] | No covid costs are not covered by the government any more so than other medical treatment as far as I know. | 21:17 |
| Raf[m] | There are programs for uninsured to help get coverage especially if low income or elderly | 21:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: His father survived the 1918 flu pandemic. At 94, he survived COVID-19. → https://is.gd/g0XKKZ | 21:24 |
| de-facto | wow so people really are thinking if they could afford treatment in USA even when having symptoms of COVID-19? | 21:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: New MIT course streaming free to the public Tuesdays from Sep. 1 through Dec. 8: "COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic", with guest speakers including Anthony Fauci, David Baltimore, Britt Glaunsinger, Bruce Walker, Eric Lander, Michel Nussenzweig, Akiko Iwasaki, Arlene Sharpe, Kizzmekia Corbett → https://is.gd/wvS9kQ | 21:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Costa Rica: +1214 cases (now 39699), +11 deaths (now 418) since 23 hours ago — World: +46878 cases (now 25.2 million), +1279 deaths (now 845678) since 3 hours ago — India: +20591 cases (now 3.5 million), +347 deaths (now 63657) since 3 hours ago — US: +11709 cases (now 6.1 million), +387 deaths (now 186701) since 3 hours ago | 21:54 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Kutztown University professor regrets telling students to seek out COVID-19, 'get it over with' — Dr. Victor Massad says he's mulling retirement after 'huge lapse of judgment' (10016 votes) | https://www.phillyvoice.com/kutztown-university-covid-19-professor-victor-massad-students-coronavirus/ | https://redd.it/iiqm5e | 22:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: NC reports highest single-day total of new COVID-19 cases → https://is.gd/vJfx6d | 22:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Portugal to make Covid vaccine free, universal and perhaps even mandatory. → https://is.gd/oNUOXo | 22:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Iowa governor says cities, counties can't require masks; highlights 'concerning' COVID-19 increase → https://is.gd/uAK3te | 23:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 10,000 anti-lockdown protesters gather in London to claim coronavirus is ‘a hoax’ → https://is.gd/PKGyrr | 23:21 |
| ryouma | they do theat there too? | 23:24 |
| LjL | oh sure | 23:24 |
| LjL | they had one in Madrid a few days ago, pretty large | 23:24 |
| LjL | and something in Germany | 23:24 |
| LjL | not *just* Americans are dumb | 23:24 |
| tinwhiskers | "More than 40,000 people have now died with the virus in UK, but one man’s sign said it was ‘fake science’ and comparable to a ‘bad flu.’" - well it is comparable to a *bad* flu... a really bad one, like Spanish flu. | 23:25 |
| LjL | but it's also not comparable because it's very different | 23:26 |
| LjL | the comparisons with the flu are just annoyingly flawed no matter how they're put | 23:26 |
| tinwhiskers | true | 23:26 |
| LjL | besides, those who are intent on calling it "fake" etc will selectively decide whether or not to include the Spanish flu depending on what you're saying | 23:27 |
| tinwhiskers | of course you can compare it legitimately, but that's not what they mean. | 23:27 |
| ryouma | my sense is that it is likely that for a variety of reasons, including the fact that special progams tend to be extremely narrowly targeted or have amny exceptions, many many many citizens are likely to be hesitant --- 11:24 <de-facto> Are the costs for COVID-19 treatment covered by government in USA? e.g. for uninsured in need or would those have the risk to pay huge bills when going to hospital hence be hesitant t | 23:29 |
| ryouma | o get treatment? | 23:29 |
| ryouma | what are the flawed comparisons? (just want a bullet point or two) | 23:30 |
| tinwhiskers | when they say that they are saying "it's no worse than the [seasonal] flu". | 23:31 |
| tinwhiskers | It's a broad statement that really has no meaning. | 23:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: China's Wuhan says all schools to reopen on Tuesday → https://is.gd/iwmklj | 23:31 |
| tinwhiskers | if anything they are referring to the mortality rate, which is clearly untrue. | 23:31 |
| de-facto | ryouma, thanks for clarifying, i thought COVID-19 treatment was covered by government as exception during the pandemic did not know people would have to pay for their own treatment in regards with COVID-19 hence be hesitant to seek medical care or even try to hide their infectious status | 23:34 |
| Raf[m] | <de-facto "wow so people really are thinkin"> welcome to America | 23:35 |
| ryouma | de-facto: it's extremely complex. the complexity alone could make many hesitate. | 23:39 |
| de-facto | well thats the fatal net effect then | 23:39 |
| ryouma | i am speaking in general terms | 23:39 |
| de-facto | for economy it probably would be cheaper to have a simple plan covering COVID-19 treatment costs and make it clear enough to everyone so people actually are not hesitant to get their infectious status fixed quickly instead of thinking about if/how/when they need help | 23:41 |
| Arsanerit | Why are cases going up much but hospitalisations barely and what does that observation imply for a balanced public policy? | 23:42 |
| tinwhiskers | Arsanerit: treatment is improving so less people end up in needing hospitalisation and stays are shorter. There's some hints that the virus may be less deadly in some places too but I think that's still fairly speculative. | 23:45 |
| ryouma | de-facto: there would be interest groups who oppose such measures | 23:45 |
| ryouma | would | 23:47 |
| de-facto | hmm unfortunate because almost all interest groups would profit from having case numbers under control hence could plan for investing into the future, yet that would be limited to interest groups inside the country in question | 23:47 |
| ryouma | internal disputes alone would be an obstacle to your plan | 23:50 |
| ryouma | most likely | 23:51 |
| ryouma | not sure what you mean by outside the country though | 23:52 |
| de-facto | i mean its hard to imagine which interest groups inside a country could profit from creating a scenario where people are hesitant to get their infectious status fixed promptly hence contribute to reproducing the pathogen | 23:54 |
| de-facto | whatever that means, i dont want to get into details, i am furious enough already about what is going on in Berlin. | 23:55 |
| ryouma | it's not only profit, but perception of profit, concern about precedent, allegiance, etc. | 23:55 |
| ryouma | insurance companies don't want to pay or to have competition; private hospitals want reimbursement | 23:56 |
| de-facto | yeah but what about the bigger picture? how will this be seen from a perspective a decade into the future? | 23:58 |
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