| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Wisconsin sets one-day records: 3,279 coronavirus cases, 34 COVID-19 deaths, 147 hospitalizations → https://is.gd/1jMaBc | 00:03 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: Covid-19 clinical trials pauses at J&J and Eli Lilly could be bumps on a hard road — or mere blips → https://is.gd/H4MgdC | 00:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +8812 cases (now 38.4 million), +231 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 32 minutes ago — US: +1588 cases (now 8.1 million), +45 deaths (now 220739) since 32 minutes ago | 00:21 |
| LjL | tell me something, AstraZeneca's vaccine trial resumed in the US too by now, didn't it? | 00:30 |
| bin_bashtober | if you cant afford your vaccine, astrazeneca may be able to help | 00:31 |
| LjL | eh? | 00:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: First reported UK case of sudden permanent hearing loss linked to COVID-19: Although uncommon, sudden permanent hearing loss seems to be linked to COVID-19 infection in some people, warn doctors, reporting the first UK case in the journal BMJ Case Reports. → https://is.gd/gjQDAu | 00:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: HHS invests $480 million in Cue Health to boost manufacturing of rapid coronavirus test: "Cue's tests provide results in about 20 minutes with the kind of accuracy provided by lab tests that can take several days, adding to our dramatically expanding supply of rapid tests that can support safe reopening," HHS Secretary Alex Azar said. → https://is.gd/7GSGaM | 00:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +17723 cases (now 38.5 million), +449 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 47 minutes ago — US: +2684 cases (now 8.1 million), +30 deaths (now 220769) since 47 minutes ago | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Ex-CDC director: Pauses to coronavirus drug trials give 'reassurance' that corners aren't being cut: "It's kind of paradoxical, but actually it's reassuring" to see coronavirus drug trials paused when safety concerns arise, former CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden told CNBC. → https://is.gd/DqEbQk | 01:14 |
| ryouma | i just realized what incentive do mfrs have to make sure their products are safe? | 01:25 |
| ryouma | vaccines i mean | 01:28 |
| metreo | An unsafe vaccine would be prohibited from the market so the substantial R&D expense would be lost | 01:34 |
| metreo | As well as a damage to the companies reputation overall affecting investorss, hiring, PR, government relations | 01:35 |
| metreo | There is really no upside to releasing a harmful product in the market | 01:35 |
| ryouma | so it comes down to the fda? | 01:36 |
| metreo | No there would be broader consequences, in theory | 01:36 |
| ryouma | such as? | 01:36 |
| metreo | But yes the FDA would create probelms | 01:36 |
| ryouma | (note: i am not pushing an ideological view. i am genuinely asking.) | 01:36 |
| metreo | damage to the companies reputation overall affecting investorss, hiring, PR, government relations | 01:36 |
| metreo | It's not an ideological question... | 01:37 |
| ryouma | i'm not sure that companies get damaged by such things. some guy gets injured or killed and ... no consequences | 01:37 |
| metreo | I guess you could look at the history of some successfully fruadulent companies | 01:37 |
| metreo | Most don't continue once the schemes are made visible, like Enron | 01:38 |
| ryouma | at least in the usa i don't think there will be any consequences | 01:38 |
| metreo | Enron was running a huge accounting scandal for years, just nobody bothered to look | 01:38 |
| metreo | Once it was exposed the entire company disintegrated | 01:38 |
| metreo | No, there would be consequences | 01:38 |
| ryouma | for industries that make products that damage? including vaccines? | 01:39 |
| metreo | Of course | 01:39 |
| ryouma | what type of consequence? | 01:39 |
| metreo | lawsuits, damage to the companies reputation overall affecting investorss, hiring, PR, government relations | 01:39 |
| ryouma | i don't see the reputation hving been damaged in industries tha make products except in very very rare cases after many many years. radium girls as an example. | 01:40 |
| ryouma | also, vaccine manufacutrers do not get sued | 01:41 |
| ryouma | in the us at least | 01:41 |
| metreo | Their investors could sue | 01:41 |
| ryouma | why would they sue if there are no consequences to the stock price? | 01:41 |
| metreo | There would be? | 01:41 |
| ryouma | i don't think that has occurred historically, and if there is no possibility of major lawsuits i don't see that occurring. i can see it occurring if the fda fails to approve only. | 01:42 |
| metreo | They could also sue over reputation and brand tarnishment | 01:42 |
| ryouma | occurred much* or quickly* | 01:42 |
| metreo | It has happened before? | 01:42 |
| metreo | I'm not sure where you're getting your information from | 01:42 |
| metreo | Medical companies are sued all of the time, you need a waiver many pages think to recieve treatment by a local doctor in the US | 01:43 |
| metreo | thick* | 01:43 |
| ryouma | vaccines are different | 01:43 |
| metreo | But not entirely | 01:43 |
| ryouma | they can be sued? | 01:44 |
| metreo | Of course | 01:44 |
| ryouma | now i am getting confused | 01:44 |
| ryouma | i thought they cannot | 01:44 |
| metreo | Anyone can sue anyone | 01:45 |
| ryouma | really? | 01:45 |
| metreo | Yes | 01:45 |
| ryouma | and be liable? | 01:45 |
| metreo | Of course not | 01:45 |
| metreo | That's begging the question | 01:45 |
| ryouma | i don't understand | 01:46 |
| ryouma | why would it matter if you can be sued but not liable? who would sue if the copmany wer enot liable? | 01:46 |
| LjL | https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/05/vaccine-safety-program/589354/ might be relevant | 01:46 |
| metreo | Just because you're sued doesn't presume your responsible | 01:46 |
| ryouma | LjL: was just looking at that | 01:47 |
| LjL | you're welcome | 01:47 |
| ryouma | metreo: but if you are... | 01:47 |
| metreo | if you are whay? | 01:47 |
| metreo | what* | 01:47 |
| ryouma | i was looking at this: "No vaccine manufacturer shall be liable in a civil action for damages arising from a vaccine-related injury or death associated with the administration of a vaccine after October 1, 1988, if the injury or death resulted from side effects that were unavoidable even though the vaccine was properly prepared and was accompanied by proper directions and warnings." --- https://www.law.cornell.edu/u | 01:48 |
| ryouma | scode/text/42/300aa-22 | 01:48 |
| metreo | That is one of many possible consequences, you will most likely need to sign a waiver before taking anything which is typical, that doesn't mean drug makers are never held responsible it happens all the time | 01:49 |
| ryouma | if the fda is politicized, and the above applies (ianal so it might not) and if, as i believe, there is a long history of companies that don't face consequences or even suffer much public reputation damage in the 19th and 20th centuries, i was wondering what safety incentives. | 01:49 |
| metreo | I don't know what you mean by a long history, I think that the history is opposite of your suppositions | 01:50 |
| ryouma | hmm | 01:50 |
| metreo | There is a very low incidence of vaccines causing liable damanges, certain much less than simple medical malpractice | 01:50 |
| ryouma | if a vaccine is approved before election day, i'd want to know what incentives ther wer for safety | 01:51 |
| metreo | Vaccines are for the public health it is not influenced by politics | 01:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +11583 cases (now 38.5 million), +169 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 47 minutes ago — US: +1703 cases (now 8.1 million), +17 deaths (now 220786) since 47 minutes ago | 01:51 |
| LjL | 18<25metreo18> There is a very low incidence of vaccines causing liable damanges ← well, that's easy to accomplish if you make most damages NOT liable as in the snippet ryouma posted | 01:55 |
| LjL | and i agree about any vaccine approved at record speeds | 01:56 |
| LjL | i am not anti-vax by any means but these companies are not doing charity work and are most certainly not always clean | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid Sage documents: What was the evidence and what happened? → https://is.gd/fQKagU | 01:57 |
| metreo | Well we as a society have agreed there is societal benefits to vaccines which are potentially harmful but which prevent pandemics, etc. | 01:58 |
| metreo | This isn't the Ford Motor company manufacturing cars gas lines running through the rear bumper | 01:59 |
| LjL | we have a society have not agreed to the specifics of a vaccine that's much more rushed out than usual | 02:00 |
| heather | better than the front bumper | 02:00 |
| LjL | like on a scale to one year of development instead of ten | 02:00 |
| LjL | i sure haven't agreed to that, and i don't think you can speak for society at large either | 02:00 |
| LjL | and many scientists have warned against rushing out a vaccine just before the elections just because of the elections | 02:00 |
| metreo | we can't really say at this moment, I wouldn't believe any politican who says they can dictate the pace of scientific progress | 02:01 |
| LjL | so your "we as a society" argument is pretty weak here, nevermind that we have a society have not really quite agreed on the particulars of just how damaging a vaccine needs to be before we say "okay, enough of this, this shan't be used", based on the amount of anti-vax people. you can't wave those away either. | 02:01 |
| metreo | It will be a treatment not a vaccine | 02:01 |
| ryouma | we need both | 02:02 |
| LjL | will it? is it the thing that Washington has signed a half-a-billion deal with AstraZeneca for? | 02:02 |
| ryouma | and my q waws about vaccines | 02:02 |
| LjL | (note, that's half a billion dollars given by the government, not half a billion doses of the medicine) | 02:02 |
| metreo | Ljl, we have literally, actively, as a society, deciding to make it easier than ever for rushed vaccines to be produced | 02:03 |
| metreo | Canada has already spent hundreds of millions buying doses of multiple versions of vaccines from different companies | 02:03 |
| metreo | This is not controversial | 02:03 |
| LjL | this is controversial | 02:04 |
| LjL | i'm sorry, you're argument from noncontroversialness is shit | 02:04 |
| metreo | I don't see where it is being fought | 02:04 |
| metreo | Nobody is saying we shouldn't do this | 02:04 |
| LjL | you can't say something is not controversial when it's in the middle of one of the most controversially controversial events in recent history | 02:04 |
| metreo | The controversy is why we don't have rapid testing everywhere | 02:04 |
| LjL | red herring | 02:04 |
| LjL | that has nothing to do with the topic at hand | 02:04 |
| LjL | we're talking about vaccines | 02:05 |
| metreo | There is way more concern over that than the outcome of a vaccine we haven't even seen yet | 02:05 |
| metreo | There is no vaccine yet to be clear | 02:05 |
| metreo | And when there is it will be given to large numbers of people | 02:05 |
| LjL | look i'll just disengage since i really don't see what i have to gain from debating with someone who purports to tell me what "everyone" has agreed to | 02:05 |
| dTal | I got 5 minutes, what's the story | 02:06 |
| LjL | i can say that i've seen some things ryouma said be more factually accurate than some of the things you say, and will continue to point that out as needed | 02:06 |
| metreo | You don't think the eventual vaccine will be given to the vast majority? | 02:06 |
| metreo | That's not even a question right now? | 02:06 |
| LjL | dTal, i'm overreacting about the fact that a vaccine is not necessarily safe and it is not automatic that companies can successfully be sued out of the market for making an unsafe vaccine and we're protected from that eventuality | 02:06 |
| dTal | I dunno if that's "overreacting", you're certainly not alone in fretting about the risk from rushed vaccines | 02:07 |
| LjL | dTal, additionally, metreo has repeatedly said that they CAN be sued in the US while ryouma has said that they CAN'T, and i've googled and posted an article that suggests that ryouma is right | 02:07 |
| LjL | instead of explaining why that article and/or ryouma and/or me are wrong, metreo seems to be saying that he's right just because all of society agrees with him, obviously | 02:07 |
| LjL | it's just not obvious to me | 02:07 |
| LjL | but hey i'm dumb | 02:07 |
| metreo | Clearly there are many ways of being sued, and clearly hocking a rushed product with bad science behind it would be one of them | 02:08 |
| LjL | dTal, i'm overreacting in the sense that i shouldn't get worked up by one person being overconfident on the internet | 02:08 |
| metreo | This is the Ford example, vaccine makers are not that | 02:08 |
| dTal | If a company makes a vaccine and the government buys it and pushes it to everyone and it's bad, sure as dammit you're not gonna be allowed to class-action them | 02:08 |
| LjL | "For most drugs—actually, every type of drug other than vaccines—the manufacturer can be legally liable for harm that results from a product it sells. Vaccines are produced by privately held pharmaceutical companies, but they have a unique arrangement with the U.S. government: When a person reports harm that could feasibly be related to a vaccine, a government program—not a pharmaceutical company—pays compensation. | 02:09 |
| LjL | More Stories | 02:09 |
| LjL | Infectious Psychology | 02:09 |
| LjL | James Hamblin | 02:09 |
| LjL | Health and Human Services and the Religious-Liberty War | 02:09 |
| LjL | Emma Green | 02:09 |
| LjL | Vaccine Skepticism and 'Big Government' | 02:09 |
| dTal | that would just be wild | 02:09 |
| LjL | Julie Beck | 02:09 |
| LjL | " | 02:09 |
| LjL | gah i'm sorry for the surprise paste | 02:09 |
| LjL | stupid websites | 02:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Moderna Announces Initiation of Rolling Submission to Health Canada for mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) (82 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-initiation-rolling-submission-health-canada | https://redd.it/jalmza | 02:49 |
| rmonten[m] | I'm late to the party, but if (in the US) the government ends up paying for eventual injuries caused by vaccines, that's a good incentive for them to make sure the stage 3 safety tests are done rigorously, no? (Am I being too naive?) | 03:07 |
| rmonten[m] | Also, does any other country have this sort of regulation? | 03:07 |
| ryouma | rmonten[m]: unfortunately, politics has many means of shoving stuff, humans, and populations under the carpet, and many incentives for doing so | 03:14 |
| ryouma | rmonten[m]: europe might hasve something similar. you can try wading through this: https://law.emory.edu/elj/content/volume-67/issue-3/articles/liability-vaccine-injury-united-european-world.html | 03:15 |
| ryouma | for example, a politican could want to take credit for stopping the pandemic, but the consequences of the actions taken might not show up until the politician is out of ofcice. copmanies and industries and governments have widely varying incentives for similarly DTWT. | 03:17 |
| ryouma | (that was just an off the cuff answer though) | 03:17 |
| rmonten[m] | Yeah that scenario makes sense, but then at least the next government (or the first one to see credible evidence of harm done) is more likely to step in, I guess. | 03:18 |
| rmonten[m] | Also thanks for the link | 03:18 |
| ryouma | such problems can continue for the better part of a century, unfortunately. if htere are say 2-3 major political parties, all of them have diry hands ... and all of them don't want to face the problem. | 03:19 |
| ryouma | (example) | 03:19 |
| ryouma | kick the can down teh road | 03:20 |
| rmonten[m] | "In E.U. countries, an injured person has the right to seek compensation in civil court and to allege that a vaccine is unreasonably dangerous or defective. [...] some contend that this ECJ decision opens the floodgates to litigation, scholarly commentary disfavors this view. Empirical work indicates that leaving courthouse doors open elevates vaccine safety." - yeah that makes sense | 03:20 |
| rmonten[m] | Yeah I'm assuming some kind of democratic liability | 03:20 |
| ryouma | a well-functioning government might in principle work differently, of course. i do not consider uk and us to have well functioning goernments. | 03:20 |
| ryouma | empirically | 03:21 |
| ryouma | (for example) | 03:22 |
| rmonten[m] | That depends on your point of comparison :-) | 03:22 |
| ryouma | yes | 03:23 |
| ryouma | there are topics whose wrongness are not yet exposed to the public, and there are ones that are, but hte puiblic does not care, and so on | 03:24 |
| ryouma | big topic i can't handle now | 03:24 |
| rmonten[m] | true | 03:26 |
| LjL | "The U.S.-based Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and other major intergovernmental, governmental, and private-sector actors have joined together recently to create a vaccine fund to respond to potential epidemic disease threats on a global basis. The new fund, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), has stated that it seeks to create liability protection and compensation mechanisms based on the U.S. model for vaccine liability. | 03:30 |
| LjL | CEPI’s intent to export the U.S. model warrants serious consideration and caution." | 03:30 |
| LjL | so i guess this may be the ultimate thing behind some weird people's claims about Bill Gates and his efforts recently...? | 03:31 |
| metreo | The Gates Foundation has large investments in vaccine companies, no? | 03:31 |
| metreo | What other claims are there? | 03:31 |
| LjL | i don't know, it's a very long document and i've just skimmed the introduction | 03:32 |
| metreo | Hmm | 03:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: NIH paused Eli Lilly Covid-19 antibody trial because of safety concerns: It will be two weeks until there is news on a paused trial of Eli Lilly’s closely watched monoclonal antibody to treat Covid-19. → https://is.gd/I9W99D | 03:34 |
| rmonten[m] | LjL: worrisome. Do they mention which governments? Also what's the source? | 03:36 |
| rmonten[m] | nm | 03:38 |
| LjL | it's from https://law.emory.edu/elj/content/volume-67/issue-3/articles/liability-vaccine-injury-united-european-world.html | 03:42 |
| LjL | from ##science, although i think they might be cherrypicking the comparison countries a little bit: <CarlSagan> [NPR - Science] Americans Are Dying In The Pandemic At Rates Far Higher Than In Other Countries https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/13/923253681/americans-are-dying-in-the-pandemic-at-rates-far-higher-than-in-other-countries?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=science 2020-10-13T19:02:08 | 03:42 |
| rmonten[m] | Not saying that they're not doing bad, but this puts it into context: https://infographics.economist.com/2020/covid-19-excess-mortality-interactive/table.html | 03:44 |
| rmonten[m] | It's hard to compare countries though, because they're so different in size | 03:45 |
| ryouma | rmonten[m]: (just as postscript on your hope that govs eventually notice the problem and fix it and as an aside from a random note i had about 3 gov examples: occasionally the problems do come to light but basically always too late for the victims. um just as random examples (sellafield, camelford, muslomovo) although it is a small number of victims in these cases) | 03:48 |
| ryouma | which elaborated into a wall of text becomes (very sloppy notes from partial notes; there is context behind each one, which are usually worse than described, and the articles do not go into that): camelford in uk: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-502442/A-lethal-cover-Britains-worst-water-poisoning-scandal.html "turned away those who were suffering ill-effects, telling them "it is all in your mind" and paper | 03:50 |
| ryouma | s were written about it being mass hysteria and then used as references for attacking other populations, or sellafield in uk: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-11768944 or muslomovo in the ussr http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/medical_examiner/2013/04/nuclear_contamination_in_former_ussr_radioactivity_in_muslomovo_on_techa.html "Another boy had eyes on top of his head like a frog. During | 03:50 |
| ryouma | the examinations, doctors did not inform the villagers of their exposures or of diagnoses of radiation-related illness. -- where they were told they were drunks). | 03:50 |
| ryouma | the muslomovo article is well written | 03:51 |
| ryouma | (you might consider climate change kicking the can down the road too.) | 03:55 |
| ryouma | thanks for the comment about eu | 04:01 |
| ryouma | the us thing is not death rate per case then? | 04:03 |
| rmonten[m] | Yeah it's certainly too late for the victims. Thx for the refs | 04:10 |
| de-facto | thats weird, why would US citizens die faster than the rest of the world, they should have quite good medical system and now also good experience in treating it | 04:18 |
| de-facto | less testing or such? | 04:18 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Found: genes that sway the course of the coronavirus (83 votes) | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/found-genes-sway-course-coronavirus?utm_campaign=NewsfromScience&utm_source=Contractor&utm_medium=Twitter | https://redd.it/jakqv8 | 04:26 |
| LjL | de-facto, i don't think they're dying at faster rates, they've just never stopped dying, whereas in most other countries, and at least in europe, there was a "pause" around the summer | 04:34 |
| LjL | and we're still mostly in that pause, deaths-wise, although they're starting to go up again | 04:35 |
| de-facto | yet incidence is on the raise in Europe with both fatalities and case numbers currently crossing their US equivalents http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU;US&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 04:38 |
| de-facto | correction: incidence of Europe crossing US on exponential raise, fatalities currently Europe at half of those in the US | 04:41 |
| de-facto | in terms of time rates per citizens | 04:41 |
| de-facto | so when the raise in cases started with begin of July in Europe it seems fatalities began routhly a month later with the begin of August | 04:44 |
| de-facto | Damn we got +5132 new cases in Germany, we will definitely pass the all time record this week. FUCK :( | 04:53 |
| de-facto | hmm ok correction: all time record was something like 5.5k daily new cases, so if those current 5132 distribute over the last few days record is not completely reached yet but will be very soon unfortunately | 04:56 |
| de-facto | this is starting to become scary | 04:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK reports highest daily COVID death toll since June → https://is.gd/49swk0 | 05:11 |
| LjL | "starting" | 05:20 |
| ryouma | can't run offloop atm. are you saying eu cases worse than us? | 05:29 |
| ryouma | same but rising* | 05:29 |
| ryouma | my language is sloppy here | 05:31 |
| LjL | ryouma, europe has fewer cases than the US, but they are rising more sharply... the doubling time is 40 days right now, while it's 110 days in the US. as to deaths, Europe had more than the US until the mid of May, when the US kept rising, although slower than it was before, while Europe almost went flat. now, Europe is subtly on the rise again (still talking about deaths), with currently little more than half the deaths of the US, while the US is still | 05:36 |
| LjL | about as linear as always | 05:36 |
| LjL | (this is all normalized by population) | 05:36 |
| LjL | it's probably easier to understand it on the graph than by my words though :P | 05:37 |
| LjL | %cases US | 05:37 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In US, there have been 8.1 million confirmed cases (2.5% of the population) and 220873 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 18 minutes ago. 120.4 million tests were performed (6.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 05:37 |
| LjL | %cases EU | 05:37 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Reunion, there have been 4624 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 17 deaths (0.4% of cases) as of a day ago. 35419 tests were performed (13.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected) and less than 0.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Reunion for time series data. | 05:37 |
| LjL | ah right it doesn't support groups | 05:37 |
| LjL | anyway, Europe has had about 3.6 million confirmed case, and 150k deaths. i'm not a calculator but it sounds like as far as the confirmed cases go, Europe has had more deaths (higher CFR). the US has had higher mortality, though (deaths by population) | 05:40 |
| LjL | at a guess the problem with the US is that they're having so many cases, they're bound to also have many deaths. it's not that given a case, that person is more likely to die than they would be in Europe. of course, this is all complicated by how much testing is actually taking place. | 05:41 |
| de-facto | yeah i am not talking about accumulated cases but daily incidences for positive tests and fatalities | 05:41 |
| de-facto | normalized by population | 05:41 |
| de-facto | the problem is Europe is on exponential raise | 05:42 |
| ryouma | if europe were superimposed on north america keeping latitude the same, where would it be n-s? | 05:43 |
| de-facto | honestly with no sign of slow down even the opposite seems to be the case, for many countries R seems to raise and raise | 05:43 |
| LjL | de-facto, a rather scary thing is that if you smooth the daily incidence graph, *that* looks exponential too: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 05:45 |
| LjL | so it's not just the cumulative curve that's looking exponential but also the daily incidence curve | 05:45 |
| LjL | which means... the cumulative is a double exponential? i can't into maths, but something like that | 05:45 |
| ryouma | i think by url htat the same curve posted above | 05:46 |
| de-facto | LjL thats what i am talking about the whole time | 05:47 |
| de-facto | cumulative makes no sense to me at all | 05:47 |
| de-facto | i am only looking at daily incidence | 05:47 |
| LjL | well sorry but when people say cases are rising exponentially they're usually talking about cumulative | 05:47 |
| de-facto | ignore the last datapoint there it wont be smoothed due to boundary too close to today, but take the few before it and its a perfect exponential | 05:48 |
| LjL | you may have been talking about something the whole time but it was originally based on an article i posted, not on your own musings | 05:48 |
| LjL | i can have my own view of the situation too | 05:48 |
| de-facto | oh sorry, then i did not express myself precisely enough, i never look at cumulative, with cases i always mean daily new detected infecitons | 05:48 |
| de-facto | if one curve is an exponential every of its derivatives is also an exponential | 05:49 |
| de-facto | so if N(t) = N0 R^(t/tau) it means dN(t)/dt = Log(R)/tau N(t) | 05:50 |
| de-facto | so for time constant R and generation time tau it would just be a multiplication by a constant | 05:52 |
| de-facto | if there was a time dependence on R = R(t) it wold be dN(t)/dt = Log(R(t))/tau N(t) [ 1 + (t / R(t) Log(R(t))) dR(t)/dt ] | 05:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add Economist excess mortality infographic → https://is.gd/Fskw8Z | 05:54 |
| de-facto | LjL, if you want to get cumulative cases from daily incidence N(t) = N(0) R^(t/tau) it should just be an integration with time, hence the opposite of a time derivative (multiplication by Log(R) / tau) hence the integration would be a multiplication by tau / Log(R) | 05:58 |
| ryouma | iseurope getting worse north to south or is that irrelevant? | 05:59 |
| de-facto | something like cumulative cases(t) = tau / Log(R) N(t) with incidence N(t) | 05:59 |
| ryouma | https://matadornetwork.com/read/mapped-united-states-canada-latitudes-europe/ | 05:59 |
| LjL | i don't really understand these maths. but so if the daily incidence were rising linearly, the cumulative wouldn't be an exponential? | 05:59 |
| rmonten[m] | You gotta love exponentials (just hope for the right exponent) | 05:59 |
| de-facto | so its just the same exponential curve multiplied by tau / Log(R) | 05:59 |
| LjL | ryouma, Italy is delayed in getting worse, but Spain was pretty bad already together with France, while the UK also waited somewhat longer, so not sure | 05:59 |
| rmonten[m] | LjL: that would make the cumulative go quadratically | 05:59 |
| LjL | i see | 06:00 |
| rmonten[m] | it's supposed to be the integral, no? (assuming 1 day is infinitesimally short) | 06:00 |
| de-facto | yes exactly | 06:01 |
| ryouma | (i am unaware of eu climate other htn latitude and mediterranean being like norhtern ca and uk being rainy. i was trying to speculate whehter being indoors had anything to do with it.) | 06:01 |
| de-facto | if N(t) = const t cummulative should be C(t) = N(t) t/2 = const t^2 / 2 | 06:02 |
| de-facto | ryouma, Germany would be on ~N50 | 06:02 |
| de-facto | so probably something Canada? | 06:03 |
| ryouma | my monitor is too dim to tell but maybe around the us ca border? | 06:03 |
| de-facto | something in the center of Quebec or such | 06:03 |
| ryouma | spain and france are in the us definitely though | 06:04 |
| de-facto | but i am not sure you can compare climate like that because continental streams as well as ocean streams play a big role | 06:04 |
| ryouma | yeah | 06:04 |
| ryouma | it's probably a bad idea | 06:04 |
| de-facto | Spain ~N40, France ~N45 | 06:05 |
| ryouma | there are climate designations and those should be used at the least | 06:05 |
| ryouma | butculture would be a big deal too | 06:06 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Florida coach wanted 90,000 fans at his home stadium, but now his players have COVID (10103 votes) | https://www.newsweek.com/florida-coach-wanted-90000-fans-home-this-week-now-his-players-have-covid-1538880 | https://redd.it/jap9g6 | 06:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +38924 cases (now 38.5 million), +827 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 5 hours ago — France: +11935 cases (now 771723) since 9 hours ago — US: +2715 cases (now 8.1 million), +87 deaths (now 220873) since 5 hours ago — New Zealand: +2 cases (now 1874) since 23 hours ago | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Sorry sunshine, wrong place’: Watch as NZ’s deputy PM shuts down a coronavirus denier → https://is.gd/nzTBMs | 07:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'Sorry sunshine, wrong place' – Winston Peters shuts down American Covid-19 denier at campaign event → https://is.gd/YvtaGc | 07:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +5540 cases (now 777263), +20 deaths (now 32962) since 32 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +1394 cases (now 636314) since 14 hours ago | 07:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Preflight Covid-19 testing is on the rise — the question is whether it works: The airline industry hopes preflight testing will restore passenger confidence and reopen borders. Medical experts aren't as convinced that one test is enough. → https://is.gd/1vszw0 | 07:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New online research database set to boost battle against COVID-19: Researchers around the world can tap into a new inter-disciplinary online database of COVID-19 research—allowing them to search for new partners, resources and funding to boost the global battle against the virus. → https://is.gd/xU3Wdj | 08:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2983 cases (now 38.5 million), +44 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 2 hours ago | 09:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Possible safety issue spurs pause of COVID-19 antibody study: Independent monitors have paused enrollment in a study testing the COVID-19 antiviral drug remdesivir plus an experimental antibody therapy being developed by Eli Lilly that's similar to a treatment President Donald Trump recently received. → https://is.gd/wOx7z2 | 10:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2756 cases (now 38.5 million), +84 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago | 10:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Britain's Boris Johnson pressured to introduce 'circuit breaker' lockdown to stop the coronavirus → https://is.gd/GbUnTN | 10:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +28358 cases (now 38.6 million), +523 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 42 minutes ago | 10:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +7374 cases (now 38.6 million), +56 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago — US: +3347 cases (now 8.1 million), +27 deaths (now 220900) since 4 hours ago | 11:53 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 infects the brain choroid plexus and disrupts the blood-CSF-barrier in human brain organoids (80 votes) | https://www.cell.com/cell-stem-cell/fulltext/S1934-5909(20)30495-1 | https://redd.it/jaudta | 12:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Blackheads? Try this super easy DIY face mask → https://is.gd/6TJWZz | 12:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4016 cases (now 38.6 million), +66 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 24 minutes ago | 12:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Retraction Watch: The bizarre anti-vaccine paper a Florida professor has been trying to have retracted to no avail: Fly, meet elephant’s back. Robert Speth has spent the last 19 months trying to get two of the world’s largest medical publishers to retract an article he considers to be a “travesty” of pseudoscientific claims and overtly [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5D60t2 | 12:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1431 cases (now 38.6 million), +2 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 19 minutes ago | 12:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: David Oliver: Hospitals are not “half empty”: The pandemic has seen a recurring assertion in mainstream and social media that hospitals are empty. The implication is that earlier concerns about hospitals being overwhelmed were exaggerated or... → https://is.gd/FH3fIz | 12:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +9512 cases (now 38.6 million), +66 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 34 minutes ago | 12:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5626 cases (now 38.6 million), +281 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 35 minutes ago | 13:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Coronavirus pandemic fuels sharp increase in Japanese suicide rate → https://is.gd/0klJtW | 13:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1002 cases (now 38.6 million), +8 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 20 minutes ago — US: +976 cases (now 8.1 million), +4 deaths (now 220904) since an hour ago | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Dutch woman becomes first to die of Covid-19 reinfection → https://is.gd/g8bRlz | 14:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New coronavirus variant contributed to outbreak among coach passengers and their close contacts: On 22 September 2020, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health was notified of a person with confirmed COVID-19 among passengers on a coach trip in southern Norway. The coach party included 40 people including guide and driver. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/LJcEvm | 14:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Durga Puja 2020: For the ‘probashi Bangali’, a pujo in pandemic will be a painful experience → https://is.gd/rPO9oy | 15:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +13909 cases (now 38.6 million), +162 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago — US: +1108 cases (now 8.1 million), +44 deaths (now 220948) since an hour ago | 15:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New blood test predicts which COVID-19 patients will develop severe infection: Scientists have developed, for the first time, a score that can accurately predict which patients will develop a severe form of COVID-19. → https://is.gd/flS2bW | 15:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Coronavirus 'excess deaths': Why England and Wales have been hardest hit in Europe: To get through the COVID-19 pandemic, we need good information. One hugely important statistic is how many people have died from the disease in various countries. But it's notoriously difficult to compare deaths in this way—each nation reports [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/BZNbTt | 15:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Stress from COVID-19 has led to a surge in teeth grinding, dentists say: When Kate Faith was laid off in March at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, her stress levels skyrocketed. She worried about making ends meet as a single parent to her 1-year-old daughter and about her family and friends catching the virus. The [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Ops68N | 15:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Low risk of COVID-19 infection found among people with congenital heart disease: Results of a retrospective analysis suggest that people born with a heart defect who developed COVID-19 symptoms had a low risk of moderate or severe COVID-19 infection, according to a new article published today in the Journal of the American [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/P8sRTL | 16:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Study: Health systems, govt responses linked to virus tolls: Scientists say a comparison of 21 developed countries during the start of the coronavirus pandemic shows that those with early lockdowns and well-prepared national health systems avoided large numbers of additional deaths due to the outbreak. → https://is.gd/qWUL2l | 16:16 |
| snake | i did a covid risk assesment online. these are my results: You are in the highest risk band for catching COVID-19 | 16:17 |
| snake | , (over 60%) and risk of dying is You are in the middle risk band for dying from COVID-19 | 16:17 |
| snake | (0.062% risk of dying, The average is 0.418%) | 16:17 |
| Brainstorm | snake: At 2020-10-13 21:12:46 UTC, LjL told you: well good for you, but here flu vaccines won't be made available until november, and in lombardy there will barely be enough for the protected categories (which means people over 65, not even children) | 16:17 |
| snake | LjL, ah i see, sorry | 16:17 |
| snake | https://www.covid19survivalcalculator.com/en/calculator | 16:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Bill Gates: Vaccine conspiracies targeting Dr. Fauci and me are ‘unfortunate’ and hurt public trust: The philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder worries that anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories will prevent people from getting a coronavirus vaccine when one comes out. → https://is.gd/kvNNys | 16:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +18823 cases (now 38.6 million), +200 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago — US: +3929 cases (now 8.1 million), +64 deaths (now 221012) since an hour ago | 16:39 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 16:46 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 634920 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 45712 deaths (7.2% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 28.1 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 16:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: The Trump Administration Allowed Aviation Companies to Take Bailout Funds and Lay Off Workers, Says House Report: by Jeff Ernsthausen and Justin Elliott ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. In the spring, Congress created a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Ddwnkf | 16:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +11433 cases (now 38.6 million), +152 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 19 minutes ago — US: +937 cases (now 8.1 million), +26 deaths (now 221038) since 19 minutes ago | 16:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Covid-19 clinical trial pauses ‘show the system is working’: The clinical trial system was designed to put on the brakes when needed and give the green light when appropriate. That's what we are seeing with the pauses in Covid-19… → https://is.gd/yA6EzZ | 16:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +7332 cases (now 372799), +43 deaths (now 36289) since 23 hours ago — World: +8385 cases (now 38.6 million), +76 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 22 minutes ago — US: +3 cases (now 8.1 million) since 22 minutes ago | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Brain injury survivors and their caregivers can benefit from a resiliency program: An early resiliency intervention program for survivors of acute brain injury and their caregivers has shown clinically significant improvement in emotional distress, according to a study conducted at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH). [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/7bJh0V | 17:10 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Man Who Called COVID a ‘Hoax’ Feels Guilty After He and 13 Family Members Test Positive — and 2 Die: "The feeling that I have is kind of like what, I would say, a drunk driver would have if they killed their family," says Tony Green, who hosted the family gathering that led to their infections. (10828 votes) | https://people.com/health/man-called-covid-hoax-feels-guilty-14-family-members-test-positive- | 17:18 |
| CoronaBot | https://redd.it/jazf4e | 17:18 |
| Jigsy | 19K! | 17:18 |
| LjL | Quite a punch in the stomach for me today. 1800 in Lombardy of which 1000 in Milan, out of 7000ish countrywide | 17:22 |
| LjL | More than 6% tests positive | 17:25 |
| LjL | That won't do | 17:25 |
| LjL | We can expect a doubling every odd day from the looks of it | 17:26 |
| LjL | (Of new cases, not total thankfully!) | 17:26 |
| LjL | The new emergency law is wish washy | 17:29 |
| LjL | I was expecting new limitations for public transport, likely accompanied by some schooling becoming remote again to make it feasible, but nope | 17:30 |
| LjL | I was expecting an alcohol curfew, but nope, except pubs will have to close at midnight, and apparently some wanted them to close even later (I dunno, 6am?!) | 17:30 |
| LjL | I was expecting closure of regional borders although I wasn't very convinced by the usefulness of that, nope | 17:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Bill Gates: Vaccine conspiracies targeting Dr. Fauci and me are ‘unfortunate’ and hurt public trust → https://is.gd/kvNNys | 17:31 |
| genera | 7000 per 24 h ? | 17:32 |
| LjL | It's probably the most boringly repetitive yet devoid of actual content emergency decree I've read so far | 17:32 |
| LjL | genera: yes, but even though that's still less than other countries, the trend is extremely steep | 17:32 |
| LjL | Especially in Lombardy | 17:32 |
| LjL | There was a very sudden change of pace. One day we had 1500 and the next day it was 2500, and then it kinda melt going at 1000 more every day | 17:34 |
| LjL | The government (esp. the minister of education who is a bit of an idiot) keep insisting schools are not to blame, but they seem to be ignoring everything *around* schools, chiefly public transport | 17:35 |
| LjL | And with these numbers, I think very strongly that pubs and restaurants must close | 17:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +45766 cases (now 38.7 million), +443 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 36 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +18330 cases (now 654644) since 10 hours ago — US: +2883 cases (now 8.1 million), +64 deaths (now 221102) since 36 minutes ago | 17:39 |
| metreo | For us, with some places in a similar situation to what you're describing, I think my government here unable to further support the mainly economic fallout of another sweeping lockdown would create | 17:46 |
| metreo | Public transportation has been a HUGE liability for us, and the services are mostly running empty | 17:47 |
| metreo | Last spring they had entire train systems kept operational for a handful of people | 17:47 |
| metreo | Cost was many hundreds of millions due to lack of revenue | 17:47 |
| snake | yeah i think lockdowns are bad | 17:49 |
| metreo | Well we need one but can't afford it | 17:49 |
| metreo | We are worse than ever this week | 17:49 |
| snake | people should decide what they're willing to risk, and be polite, don't cough on each other, don't sneeze on someone, stay home if you're sick, wear a mask out in public, socially distance | 17:50 |
| snake | wash your hands, don't touch your face | 17:50 |
| metreo | That's not what's happening on the street unfortunately | 17:50 |
| metreo | Other people are the biggest risk | 17:50 |
| snake | i've never seen another person sneeze one someone | 17:50 |
| metreo | Only on uncaring person can still create havok | 17:50 |
| snake | actually my sister sneezed on my once | 17:50 |
| metreo | one* | 17:51 |
| snake | metreo, most people that get sick won't die | 17:51 |
| snake | if you're at-risk, certainly, stay home until there is a vaccine | 17:51 |
| metreo | Thanks, convince every last persion of that | 17:51 |
| snake | otherwise, decide for yourself if you're willing to risk sitting by a sister than sneezes on you | 17:51 |
| snake | i don't have to | 17:52 |
| snake | people already decide for themselves | 17:52 |
| metreo | Well I am comfortable at home today but the numbers are exponentially increasing again | 17:52 |
| metreo | Appointment for a flu shot next week | 17:52 |
| snake | yes i got my flu shot :> | 17:52 |
| snake | we're lucky, some people can't get it :< | 17:52 |
| metreo | Why not? | 17:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: As New Yorkers prepare to vote, COVID-19 stays top-of-mind: Nearly three quarters (72%) of New York City residents believe that it is likely or very likely that there will be another surge of COVID-19 cases similar to the height of the pandemic last April. Despite this somber expectation, most remain hopeful for the city's [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/kjiCQ9 | 17:53 |
| snake | metreo, not available until next month | 17:54 |
| metreo | Oh interesting it comes out tomorrow here | 17:55 |
| snake | LjL, told me here flu vaccines won't be made available until november, and in lombardy there will barely be enough for the protected categories (which means people over 65, not even children) | 17:55 |
| metreo | Curious | 17:55 |
| metreo | Someone said if it's a bad flu season we'd have a "twindemic" we're calling it | 17:56 |
| snake | i think 3/4 of americans surveyed are planning to get flu shot | 17:57 |
| snake | but i dont remember where i read that or if i'm recalling the number right | 17:57 |
| metreo | I'm still young but I *hate* the flu, I've had bad ones in the past, even gave me lasting tinnitus one year | 17:57 |
| snake | yeah i hate the flu too | 17:57 |
| metreo | The flu shot is very popular, we get the vaccination done at the grocery stores so it's easy | 17:58 |
| snake | driving to store to buy your own medicine is the worst :< | 17:58 |
| snake | yeah, here i was able to just walk in and get a flu shot | 17:58 |
| metreo | More people will this year, though it's not going to help with Covid but that's where people's mindsets are at the moment | 17:58 |
| metreo | I guess it feels better than doing nothing at this point | 17:59 |
| snake | its better than stocking up on toilet paper xD | 17:59 |
| LjL | at the grocery stores O.o | 17:59 |
| LjL | we need our GP to give us the flu shot | 17:59 |
| LjL | although this years they are arranging for pharmacies to do it too, not sure if that'll work out | 17:59 |
| snake | LjL, yes you can have it done by a pharmacist at the grocery store pharmacy | 18:00 |
| metreo | A few public health nurses come into basically all of the grocery stores for us | 18:00 |
| LjL | oh, well we can't have pharmacies inside grocery stores either :D after many years they finally allowed "parapharmacies", which can sell some OTC drugs | 18:00 |
| metreo | I'll get mine at Costco | 18:00 |
| metreo | Ljl, that's a interesting restriction | 18:01 |
| LjL | pharmacies are dedicated shops. i think they used to be partly run by the state | 18:04 |
| metreo | Yeah I would guess some kind of protectionism | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +16195 cases (now 38.7 million), +273 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 35 minutes ago — Spain: +11970 cases (now 937311), +209 deaths (now 33413) since 20 hours ago — US: +1926 cases (now 8.1 million), +40 deaths (now 221142) since 35 minutes ago | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Bill Gates: Vaccine conspiracies targeting Dr. Fauci and me are ‘unfortunate’ and hurt public trust → https://is.gd/kvNNys | 18:15 |
| jacklsw | covid cases keep increasing everywhere in the world? | 18:15 |
| jacklsw | even china has to test 9mil people for sudden spike | 18:15 |
| LjL | what sort sized spike? | 18:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +10550 cases (now 38.7 million), +179 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 25 minutes ago — US: +1849 cases (now 8.1 million), +27 deaths (now 221169) since 25 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +901 cases (now 227635), +5 deaths (now 5772) since a day ago | 18:24 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Less severe course of COVID-19 is associated with elevated levels of antibodies against seasonal human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 (HCoV OC43, HCoV HKU1) (84 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.12.20211599v1 | https://redd.it/jb0tyg | 18:30 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Moderna Receives Confirmation of Eligibility for Submission of Marketing Authorization Application to the European Medicines Agency for mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) (81 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-receives-confirmation-eligibility-submission-marketing | https://redd.it/jb0kf0 | 18:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Eli Lilly pauses antibody trial for safety reasons: The phase III trial of a leading candidate treatment for covid-19 has been put on hold for safety reasons after five days of treatment, and a week after its maker applied for a US emergency use... → https://is.gd/YrF84p | 18:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): CDC may not recommend the coronavirus vaccine for children at first → https://is.gd/kyGRvm | 18:47 |
| de-facto | Oh interesting @Moderna mRNA vaccine in EU | 18:48 |
| de-facto | the more choices we have the better | 18:50 |
| LjL | de-facto, especially since the AstraZeneca thing is becoming a bit muddied in my opinion | 18:52 |
| LjL | with them remaining blocked in the US, then being unblocked when they strook a deal for half a billion dollars to develop an antibody treatment/prophylactic | 18:52 |
| LjL | i don't feel great about all that | 18:52 |
| LjL | especially if that prophylactic is going to become Trump's touted November "vaccine" | 18:53 |
| LjL | (not really a vaccine, but they hope it can confer 6 months to 1 year of immunity, so, similar in effect) | 18:53 |
| de-facto | good point | 18:54 |
| de-facto | i hope the requirements are independent though, still probably same data | 18:55 |
| de-facto | probably going to have Pfizer/BioNTech and CureVac mRNA options too at some point | 18:55 |
| drytrumpet | Nice article in german about corona deniers: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/stil/leib-seele/ich-du-er-sie-es/wenn-man-mit-corona-leugnern-verwandt-ist-16985814.html | 19:00 |
| LjL | this is supposed to be a fabric made specifically to sew masks but look at those holes... i really don't think so! https://pic.infini.fr/gallery#6ColD2cf/tV1Y7N0F.jpg,oPDokcqQ/6JjGCQy0.jpg,fO99Yzjt/2TCsiJm2.jpg,9hefwQgE/02fDSMdS.jpg | 19:18 |
| LjL | (if you want to make similar assessment, i used a cheap USB microscope) | 19:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New study suggests crucial role for lymphocytes in asymptomatic COVID-19 infection: COVID-19 remains stubbornly inconsistent. More than a million people have died and 35 million have been diagnosed, but a large fraction of people infected with the coronavirus—about 45%, according to recent estimates—show no symptoms at all. → https://is.gd/RW0SQ6 | 19:20 |
| Arsanerit | I'm told such pauses are quite normal in vaccine trials. | 19:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +34287 cases (now 38.7 million), +447 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago — US: +1651 cases (now 8.1 million), +15 deaths (now 221184) since an hour ago | 19:24 |
| LjL | Macron will speak to the nation in half an hour or so | 19:29 |
| LjL | i'm going to have a walk, someone please find me a good stream before i come back! :P | 19:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Child hand sanitiser poisoning cases spike in Spain: The number of children treated in Spain for accidental poisonings after ingesting hand sanitising gels has soared during the pandemic, the government said Wednesday, urging parents to keep the products out of reach. → https://is.gd/E3Hvc4 | 19:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: (news): PRESIDENZA DEL CONSIGLIO DEI MINISTRI - IL COMMISSARIO STRAORDINARIO PER L'ATTUAZIONE E IL COORDINAMENTO DELLE MISURE DI CONTENIMENTO E CONTRASTO DELL'EMERGENZA EPIDEMIOLOGICA COVID-19 - ORDINANZA 8 ottobre 2020 → https://is.gd/mMScmJ | 19:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Flu and COVID-19 are bad enough, but they also can raise stroke risk: It's flu season. In the middle of a coronavirus pandemic. Is this any time to be thinking about your risk of stroke? → https://is.gd/MIgpaZ | 19:53 |
| saintpie | this is one of my biggest fears | 20:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Your blood type may predict your risk for severe COVID-19: (HealthDay)—There's more evidence that blood type may affect a person's risk for COVID-19 and severe illness from the disease. → https://is.gd/1LR1Wn | 20:14 |
| LjL | France will have a curfew in Paris and other big cities | 20:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +21085 cases (now 38.8 million), +214 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago — US: +4792 cases (now 8.1 million), +76 deaths (now 221260) since an hour ago — France: +1800 cases (now 779063), +95 deaths (now 33037) since 12 hours ago | 20:24 |
| LjL | Curfew from 9pm to 6am in Paris and 8 cities | 20:29 |
| LjL | €135 fine for violating it | 20:30 |
| de-facto | its about time their hospitals are filling | 20:30 |
| de-facto | Merkel is meeting with the presidents of the federal states in Germany today for more strict and unified measures to be taken, they are expected to give a statement for hours already, but still seem to be discussing, i really do hope they are not making stupid compromises but rather agree on strict measures with impact | 20:32 |
| blkshp | yeah cause it worked here :S | 20:33 |
| LjL | Yes, he said their hospitals and their ICUs are in a more worrying situation than back in March | 20:33 |
| LjL | he being Macron | 20:33 |
| blkshp | manu | 20:33 |
| blkshp | :D | 20:33 |
| de-facto | from the curves it looks like there is roughly one month delay between incidence raise and fatalities raise, so there is a considerable delay in used hospital capacities | 20:34 |
| de-facto | so even if they would manage to bring down incidence today hospital usage still would raise for quite some time | 20:34 |
| LjL | i'm really worried today, 1000 cases just in Milan is something that leaves me out of breath regardless of mask wearing | 20:35 |
| LjL | 1000 cases a day in an area of 3 million people... and rising, almost doubling every day | 20:35 |
| de-facto | 1000 cases for how many citizens? | 20:35 |
| de-facto | ah | 20:35 |
| blkshp | About the same as the entire uk by ratio | 20:37 |
| de-facto | so dividing that by 30 gives daily 33 cases per 100k citizens | 20:38 |
| de-facto | thats 233 per week, indeed thats quite a lot | 20:38 |
| LjL | i don't think it's the same as the UK...? isn't the UK having about 12k cases a day lately | 20:38 |
| blkshp | 19.5k today | 20:38 |
| LjL | ouch | 20:38 |
| de-facto | damn | 20:38 |
| LjL | is everywhere else also discussing the "new" antigenic tests lately? | 20:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2518 cases (now 38.8 million), +37 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 20 minutes ago — US: +2075 cases (now 8.1 million), +28 deaths (now 221288) since 20 minutes ago | 20:39 |
| de-facto | yes afaik they are trying to evaluate their quality | 20:39 |
| de-facto | to certify their usage | 20:39 |
| LjL | in Italy the current line is that they are almost as reliable as the regular tests, and that the faster speed more than makes up for the small loss of accuracy | 20:40 |
| de-facto | if their specificity is high enough to prevent false positives their cheap price, quick result and quantity can make up for their lower sensitivity in comparison to standardized RT-PCR tests, afaik they said something like their predictive value indicate current infectiousness (viral shedding) rather than being infected (as a negative test could miss low viral load below a threshold where infectiousness is not a big issue) | 20:43 |
| de-facto | but they have to be used frequently | 20:43 |
| de-facto | ie. a false negative may be for the status of being infected, but hopefully not for the status of currently shedding the virus | 20:44 |
| LjL | why is Brainstorm not saying anything about the French curfew, always lets me down :( | 20:44 |
| LjL | lots of barely interesting news, and then there's something fresh and it doesn't post it | 20:44 |
| de-facto | LjL do you have a website for Milan with time series for new infections? | 20:46 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_3 | 20:48 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's cumulative but at the bottom right of the graph there is a link for CSV data if you want | 20:48 |
| de-facto | thanks | 20:48 |
| LjL | i was also thinking of making a spreadsheet and graph of some of the data i usually look at daily at https://www.lombardianotizie.online/coronavirus-casi-lombardia/ | 20:49 |
| LjL | that one distinguishes between the province of Milan (aka "metropolitan city of Milan") and the city of Milan | 20:49 |
| LjL | the city currently has about half the cases, 500 out of 1000 | 20:50 |
| LjL | but the city has fewer residents than the rest of the province, roughly 1.3m vs 1.7m | 20:50 |
| LjL | so the city is worse currently | 20:50 |
| de-facto | yeah more contact rate probably | 20:50 |
| LjL | the province if Monza also looks rather scary, but it's not too surprising since it's basically a part of Milan (it used to be part of the Milan province, then they split, but the metro reaches there and sidewalks connect Milan to Monza without any interruption) | 20:51 |
| LjL | de-facto, although it's more the people who live outside of Milan proper who use commuter trains, which have an ancient problem of being late and overcrowded | 20:51 |
| de-facto | anything known about suspected main origins of incidence? | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Policy: White House informally endorses letting pandemic spread unchecked → https://is.gd/Fi5PW0 | 20:57 |
| de-facto | LjL made a quick plot of daily new cases from the cummulative csv for Milano | 21:06 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/BpW2IQi | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: Milano Daily Incidence - Album on Imgur | 21:06 |
| de-facto | So basically since begin of October there is that sharp raise | 21:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Watch Healthy Returns: The path forward with the FDA's Dr. Janet Woodcock: FDA Senior Advisor Dr. Janet Woodcock joins Meg Tirrell to talk monoclonal antibody treatments, Operation Warp Speed, and how to run better clinical trials. → https://is.gd/aPpxVh | 21:08 |
| Arsanerit | why is it rising so much more now than 2-3 months ago? or is it rising at the same rate, just more apparent due to the higher baseline? | 21:09 |
| de-facto | daily new infections is the rate for cumulative (total) cases to raise | 21:10 |
| de-facto | its the time derivative | 21:10 |
| Arsanerit | maybe R isn't increasing all that much actually | 21:12 |
| snake | https://www.covid19survivalcalculator.com/en/result/Anonymous_male/62/0.062 | 21:12 |
| snake | that's my risk of getting covid, and risk of dying | 21:12 |
| de-facto | Suppose the pairs: (Daily new cases as time function) => (Cumulative total number of infections) will be (zero) => (constant); (constant) => (linear increase with time); (linear increase with time) => (qudratic increase with time); (exponential increase with time) => (exponential increase with time) | 21:12 |
| metreo | Arsanerit, R has been revised upwards as high as 13 in a recent Royal Society publication | 21:13 |
| metreo | %papers R0 | 21:13 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, 306 papers: Basic reproduction number of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Major Endemic Areas of China: A latent profile analysis by Honglv Xu et al, published on 2020-04-17 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.13.20060228 [... want %more?] | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | In Germany R was around 1.1 in July and August (according to offloop.net), but is now around 1.4. | 21:13 |
| snake | i'm not out in public around hundreds of people but i am around more people than most | 21:13 |
| snake | because i live alone i choose to go into the office | 21:13 |
| metreo | %more | 21:13 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, [...] recovery and are committed to remaining here. These are key findings from a survey of public perceptions and experiences during the city's recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic conducted by the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health & Health Policy (CUNY SPH). One thousand New York City residents were polled from September 25-27, 2020. The [...] → https://paste.ee/p/0NQmk | 21:13 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, [...] Estimation of novel coronavirus (covid-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: a systematic review and meta-analysis by Tanvir Ahammed et al, published on 2020-09-30 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.09.30.20204644 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/gWHBc | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | How can the doubling time drop dramatically when R remains around the same? | 21:14 |
| metreo | It's circumstantial | 21:14 |
| snake | im around like 15 people each week | 21:14 |
| snake | on average | 21:14 |
| metreo | Early estimates from Chain suggested R in a 'state of nature' (i.e. no preventative measures) was 3, but it's since been raised | 21:14 |
| Arsanerit | running doubling time in The Netherlans dropped from 180 days early August to 22 days now, but R has been between 1 and 1.5 for most of this time. | 21:14 |
| metreo | %more | 21:14 |
| snake | %cases PA | 21:15 |
| Brainstorm | snake: In Pennsylvania, US, there have been 180622 confirmed cases (1.4% of the population) and 8486 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 1.4 million tests were performed (12.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 21:15 |
| metreo | %papers royal society r0 | 21:15 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, 0 papers: | 21:15 |
| metreo | %papers royal society | 21:15 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, 4 papers: Adjusting to Disrupted Assessments, Placements and Teaching (ADAPT): a snapshot of the early response by UK medical schools to COVID-19 by Anmol Arora et al, published on 2020-08-01 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.07.29.20163907 [... want %more?] | 21:15 |
| metreo | %more | 21:15 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, [...] SARS-CoV-2 genomics beyond the consensus sequence: evidence for circulating mixed viral populations by Katrina A Lythgoe et al, published on 2020-05-28 at http://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.28.118992 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/pS7P8 | 21:15 |
| Arsanerit | In Germany doubling time was 200 days on August 9 and 75 days on Oct 13. | 21:15 |
| snake | there's already more than one virus? | 21:16 |
| metreo | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.200786 | 21:16 |
| metreo | ^^ old fashion way | 21:16 |
| metreo | snake, literally yes but practically they are all very similar | 21:16 |
| metreo | I was wrong R0 of 13 is out of the expected range | 21:17 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, doubling time for what? if you mean doubling time for incidence (daily new cases N(t) = N0 R^(t/t_serial) ) it just would be solving for R in R^(t_double/t_serial) = 2 hence t_double = t_serial * Log[2] / Log[R] | 21:17 |
| metreo | That curve for Milan is SCARY | 21:17 |
| metreo | Milano* | 21:18 |
| metreo | %papers super-spreading events | 21:18 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, 19 papers: Characterizing super-spreading events and age-specific infectivity of COVID-19 transmission in Georgia, USA by Max SY Lau et al, published on 2020-06-22 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.20.20130476 [... want %more?] | 21:18 |
| metreo | %more | 21:18 |
| Brainstorm | metreo, [...] Wrong person, place and time: viral load and contact network structure predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events by Ashish Goyal et al, published on 2020-08-07 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.08.07.20169920 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/eJiNy | 21:18 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: doubling time for confirmed cases, you're right, therefore I can't explain the discrepancy on offloop.net. | 21:19 |
| Arsanerit | maybe it's an artefact over the period over which R is calculated vs. the doubling time is calculated. | 21:19 |
| de-facto | i think offloop uses it for cumulative cases but i am not sure | 21:19 |
| Arsanerit | it probably does or doubling time would be undefined when cases drop | 21:22 |
| Arsanerit | but I'm confusing that NL has the lowest doubling time but not the highest R. | 21:22 |
| de-facto | so assuming the worst case in Germany R=1.4 and a generation serial time of ~5.2 days it would be t_double = t_serial Log[2] / Log[R] = 5.2 Log[2] / Log[1.4] = 5.2 * 2.06 = 10.71 days time for doubling current daily new case numbers | 21:24 |
| de-facto | so hopefully R<1.4 | 21:25 |
| de-facto | im not quite sure about those t_serial = 5.2 days though, its just from memory, what is the current value agreed upon for that? | 21:26 |
| Arsanerit | offloop gives for Germany doubling time 57.8 days, R(eff) 1.36 | 21:27 |
| Arsanerit | For the UK it gives a doubling time of 25.7 days, R(eff) 0.97 | 21:28 |
| Arsanerit | For Belgium it gives a doubling time of 21.8 days, R(eff) 1.57 | 21:29 |
| de-facto | UK also should be R~1.5 or such | 21:29 |
| de-facto | maybe its periodicity | 21:30 |
| Arsanerit | for The Netherlands it gives doubling time of 18.7 days, R(eff) 1.3 | 21:30 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, the best site i know for Rt is http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 21:30 |
| Arsanerit | I don't understand how UK and Belgium can have similar doublign time but very different R(eff), or how Germany and Netherlands can have similar R(eff) but very different doubling time. | 21:31 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: thanks | 21:31 |
| Arsanerit | nice page (pity of the mercator projection) | 21:31 |
| de-facto | they use https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/EpiEstim/index.html | 21:31 |
| de-facto | there you can see for UK their current fluctuation of Rt is below its average (blue line) | 21:32 |
| Arsanerit | are the data behind metrics.covid19-analysis.org updated weekly? most data appears to date from Oct 8 | 21:33 |
| de-facto | hopefully they will be able to break that trend and bring the average for R down | 21:33 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, click at the "about" tab | 21:35 |
| de-facto | its Johns Hopkins data, but since R can only be calculated for the past the most recent value is delayed by the amount of days that are included in its calculation | 21:36 |
| de-facto | so i would assume its daily data to calculate the most recent R possible | 21:36 |
| Arsanerit | makes sense | 21:37 |
| Arsanerit | the Robert Koch Institut produces an R "nowcast", which is presumably some sort of extrapolation based on older data on what R might be for today | 21:37 |
| de-facto | yes they try to extrapolate trends to compensate for reporting delays etc | 21:38 |
| de-facto | i think its quite complicating | 21:38 |
| LjL | de-facto, thanks | 21:38 |
| LjL | de-facto, today's spike is still scary as fuck no matter how you turn it though :\ | 21:39 |
| de-facto | yes do you know if anything changed since Oct 1st in regards to testing strategies? | 21:39 |
| LjL | de-facto, testing has been ramped up, and i think today was the day with the most tests ever | 21:39 |
| LjL | but... if you look at the ratio, that's still not enough to justify such a spike | 21:39 |
| de-facto | well but that has to be taken into account then if they test more | 21:40 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6 has the black line showing cases/tests per day at the countrywide level, and if you click on "Trend persone testate" it filters out the tests that were done more than once on the same individual | 21:40 |
| de-facto | its always twofold, of course its scary to find new infections, but on the other hand its good they are not being allowed to spread the virus as unknown carriers | 21:41 |
| LjL | de-facto, sure, i take it into account, i look at the ratio every day | 21:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that people must stay indoors from 21:00 to 06:00 in Paris and eight other cities to control the rapid spread of coronavirus in the country. → https://is.gd/qnKij5 | 21:41 |
| LjL | de-facto, we're talking of going from <1% positive to >6% positive | 21:41 |
| LjL | i know the numbers, i keep them into account, it's still bad | 21:41 |
| LjL | click on "Trend persone testate", which is the meaningful one | 21:41 |
| LjL | it's creepy | 21:41 |
| LjL | it's as bad as April/May, which had many many fewer tests | 21:42 |
| de-facto | hmm thats indeed not good | 21:42 |
| LjL | 14 July: 0.47% | 21:42 |
| LjL | 26 April: 9.64% | 21:42 |
| LjL | today: 8.37% | 21:43 |
| de-facto | its hard to tell because it also depends on targeting, e.g. if they do screening or only try to focus limited test capacity on symptomatic cases etc | 21:43 |
| LjL | de-facto, you can tell some things by checking "trend persone testate" against "trend tamponi" though (tamponi meaning swabs). it shows there is a striking difference: if you look at "trend tamponi" you'd think it's not so bad now, but if you look at "trend persone testate", it tells you a story where they are basically giving up re-testing people who are known positive (example: the PM announced they will now consider people "recovered" after only one | 21:46 |
| LjL | test, not two) because they have a lot of actual new cases to test instead | 21:46 |
| LjL | also, i've seen news pieces where especially in Latium (Rome) and Campania (Naples) people are queuing for hours in their cars, like they go there at 4am, testing starts at 6am, and they're still there in the afternoon, for the drive-in tests | 21:47 |
| LjL | that includes people who have bad cancers, who need surgery, but to be eligible for surgery, they have to show a negative test result first | 21:47 |
| LjL | so that's an example of people being tested without any particular symptoms: they are just required to show a negative test before having something done on them | 21:47 |
| de-facto | wow | 21:48 |
| de-facto | that sounds like more testing capacity is needed or maybe offloaded some part of it to antigen quicktests or other alternatives | 21:49 |
| de-facto | its really hard to tell how much of the incidence in crease in Milano originates from more testing and how much is real increase, i would guess both effects play a role | 21:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Dutch Woman First to Die After COVID-19 Reinfection: Gene tests found slight differences in the makeup of the viruses that caused her first and second infections, suggesting she had caught COVID-19 twice. → https://is.gd/5XnTky | 22:13 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzP-Er7j5g0 | 22:15 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Corona-Beratungen: Pressekonferenz im Kanzleramt zu den künftigen Maßnahmen - YouTube | 22:15 |
| de-facto | Merkel Live in German to the meeting with the ministers today | 22:15 |
| de-facto | basically they lower the threshold for weekly incidence per 100k citizens from 50 to 35 and some minor changes | 22:26 |
| de-facto | since they assume impact to be visible no sooner than 10 days in the future they will look if measures are successful and if not implement additional measures | 22:27 |
| de-facto | i got a bit the feeling they did not come to an agreement about aggressive measures | 22:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Medical research: Design and test potential COVID-19 treatments from your phone → https://is.gd/jLSVFK | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Blood Type May Predict Your Risk For Severe COVID: Among the COVID-19 patients, there was a lower percentage of people with blood type O and higher percentages of those with with types A, B and AB. → https://is.gd/balnBo | 22:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Hard to Change Minds of 'Vaccine-Hesitant' Parents: Even though those parents are not "adamantly" opposed to vaccinations, it can still be hard for pediatricians to allay their concerns, said Jason Glanz, lead researcher on the study. → https://is.gd/JypMOa | 23:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +60150 cases (now 38.8 million), +1260 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 3 hours ago — US: +24527 cases (now 8.1 million), +429 deaths (now 221717) since 3 hours ago | 23:35 |
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