| ryouma | what is the upshot on the recent fomites paper that said (under lab conditions) 28 days (i forgot for which surfaces)? is it meaningful? what are good numbers of days for various surfaces given this information? | 00:09 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | i think it's an important study | 00:09 |
| LjL | but as to giving numbers to use in everyday life, i think it falls short of that | 00:09 |
| ryouma | has anybody tried to translate it into everyday life numbers? | 00:10 |
| LjL | it tells us that the virus can, under some conditions (artificial but not so much), last longer than we generally thought so far | 00:10 |
| LjL | ryouma, i think the main issue is that while they tried to simulate the amount of virions that a patient may release, they cannot know how many virions need to be on a surface for someone to get infected | 00:10 |
| LjL | that's a lot harder to test without willfully exposing people to COVID | 00:11 |
| ryouma | i supposed i'd want to ask the researchers what they do in their lives then | 00:16 |
| ryouma | i used to think ok, to be on the safe side, 2d for cardboard, 4d plastic | 00:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +10960 cases (now 38.8 million), +210 deaths (now 1.1 million) since 46 minutes ago — US: +4478 cases (now 8.1 million), +38 deaths (now 221755) since 46 minutes ago | 00:20 |
| ryouma | i can get that even all the patient reports in the world aren't enough with sophisticated record keeping, plus the likely many studies where they inoculate volunteers with colds (but idk which genus), to get even a vague bayesian sense of that, but wish it were. (e.g. "i was self-isolating and eating canned beef stroganoff for 14d and i got a delivery with cardboard packaging from a warehouse that recently got infe | 00:20 |
| ryouma | cted and wore gloves and a mask to open it and touched the inner cardboard/plastic container with bare hands and used a nose spray without thinking, thus maybe getting it in my nose from that, and got tested n days after, and please combine that with all the other reports into a sophisticated model kthxbye."). | 00:20 |
| ryouma | (there used to be a lab where they would infect volunteers. apparently some marriages resulted in the subject pool.) | 00:21 |
| LjL | that's a different kind of infection | 00:25 |
| LjL | i believe it's called sexual reproduction | 00:25 |
| ryouma | the two are unconnected except that they lived in a dorm :) | 00:26 |
| ryouma | the subjects that is | 00:27 |
| LjL | that sure can cause some "cross" effects within your subject pool... | 00:27 |
| ryouma | well the marriages occurred after their participation in the experiment, most likely | 00:27 |
| ryouma | that research unit is where coronaviruses were isolated | 00:30 |
| ryouma | "When Veronica felt her worst, she watched television. For the rest of the time, she said, she and her roommate carried on ''a sort of correspondence with some of our neighbors. We wrote them letters and left them at their door and then ran away. They sent us gifts and we sent them horrible things in return.''" then the male neighbors sent a plant and then... marriage | 00:32 |
| ryouma | but idk if they studied inoculation dose | 00:32 |
| ryouma | um, i got that marriage thing slithly wrong but whatever | 00:33 |
| ryouma | nope i was wrong: "One famous experiment was designed to see how long it would take for colds to be transmitted to a group of volunteers who had been isolated all summer on an island in the Hebrides. Since no one came or went for weeks, it was assumed there would be no colds among the group by the end of the summer. Then Dr. Andrewes beached a wave of boats carrying infected volunteers." | 00:34 |
| ryouma | "The invaders handled the colonists' cutlery and coughed at them for hours from behind a blanket partition. Not one sniffle developed. In panic, the team recruited a garrulous crofter from a nearby island with a well-developed wild cold. After a few hours of listening to him spin yarns around the fire, three out of eight finally got sick." | 00:35 |
| LjL | strange things, those colds. they're so easy to get when you don't actually want to. | 00:36 |
| ryouma | they couldn't transmit by getting volunteers to kiss | 00:39 |
| ryouma | n=18,000 | 00:40 |
| ryouma | (i.e. volunteers at that one center) | 00:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Spain reports first confirmed case of COVID-19 reinfection; patient is a healthy, 62-year-old man who suffered life-threatening pneumonia the second time → https://is.gd/2p6Vzo | 00:45 |
| de-facto | second time :/ | 00:45 |
| de-facto | interesting they have a collection of reinfection cases there https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ | 00:47 |
| LjL | i think more than second | 00:47 |
| LjL | unless you men second in spain | 00:47 |
| LjL | there was news of a few patients with a worse second time than the first | 00:47 |
| LjL | whoops | 00:48 |
| de-facto | i meant that second infection is more severe than first | 00:48 |
| LjL | "BNONews'" became "NBONew's" in my sloppy writing, i see now, months after writing it | 00:48 |
| de-facto | i dont know anything about that site just the link for above | 00:48 |
| LjL | de-facto, i had it in my list before because of https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ | 00:49 |
| LjL | i think the special thing about that tracker compared to others it has "serious and critical" cases | 00:49 |
| LjL | other than that, it's a tracker | 00:50 |
| de-facto | from the Netherlands Tilburg | 00:51 |
| de-facto | yes does not look too bad | 00:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add BNONews re-infection tracker → https://is.gd/QjBG4h | 00:56 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Immunity and Re-Infection (82 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection | https://redd.it/jb30hp | 00:56 |
| de-facto | from their list of reinfections at https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/: 23 reinfection cases, 1 death 22 re-recoveries, cases symptoms: 10 increased, 5 equal, 3 decreased, 5 unknown | 00:57 |
| de-facto | so not representative but majority of known symtoms increased | 00:57 |
| de-facto | thats not so good | 00:57 |
| LjL | de-facto, yeah, that's why i said it was not just the second case | 00:58 |
| LjL | someone, i'm sorry i forget who right now, was telling me the other day the majority of cases are actually worse | 00:58 |
| LjL | of second cases | 00:59 |
| ryouma | hypothesis? | 00:59 |
| ryouma | for why | 00:59 |
| de-facto | so hopefully its a biasing effect, e.g. symptomatic reinfections detection probability raises or such | 00:59 |
| LjL | i don't know | 01:00 |
| LjL | de-facto, but it could be symptomatic-less-bad still | 01:00 |
| LjL | that should be caught anyway, shouldn't it? | 01:00 |
| de-facto | indeed | 01:00 |
| de-facto | what i meant is that symptomatic reinfections are really hard to detect | 01:00 |
| de-facto | *asymptomatic | 01:00 |
| LjL | right | 01:01 |
| LjL | well for now we can still hope re-infections in general are rare | 01:01 |
| de-facto | yes still they are possible and not guaranteed to be milder | 01:02 |
| LjL | although i've long had a feeling that we're just "ignoring" it or chalking them off as "they never really stopped having COVID, some intermediate test was probably just a false negative". now finally they're starting to sequence the virus in them and see it's two different strains | 01:02 |
| de-facto | yep | 01:02 |
| LjL | de-facto, it is a well-known scientific fact that the only guaranteed things are death and taxes | 01:02 |
| de-facto | I think studies tracking previously detected cases just accompanying them through their life should be done, to get a representative picture for long lasting symptoms and effects, reinfections, immunity, antibody decay and all that | 01:04 |
| LjL | de-facto, did you see that study about hearing impairment or loss and tinnitus? it said, "most of these patients are currently awaiting an ENT visit, which has not been available yet because of COVID" | 01:06 |
| LjL | the very COVID patients who are developing further symptoms are not being seen because of... COVID | 01:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: First Ebola therapy approved by the FDA: For the first time, an Ebola therapy has been approved for use. The FDA on Wednesday approved Inmazeb, an antibody cocktail made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. → https://is.gd/XQQ28s | 01:07 |
| LjL | so let's keep our expectations pretty low | 01:07 |
| LjL | because low is realistic | 01:07 |
| de-facto | maybe there are also effects like the cases recovered from first infection assumed proudly to be immune due to incomplete understanding of it and them behaving not careful anymore in their everyday lifes, risking very high second infection doses (e.g. by not wearing masks or such) | 01:08 |
| de-facto | then if they have higher second infection dose and their immunity already faded the viral replication could start ad high infection dose level freaking their immune system out when recognizing the big problem developing in their bodies? | 01:09 |
| ryouma | is it in the virus's interest to mutate worse symptoms | 01:09 |
| de-facto | (thats speculation though) | 01:09 |
| LjL | de-facto, this seems a little far-fetched to me, but if you're right, well, we should see more of that now, since Trump gave the good example | 01:10 |
| LjL | see also for kicks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5C76XMCJCVs | 01:10 |
| LjL | ryouma, i don't think there's necessarily mutations at play here | 01:10 |
| de-facto | ryouma, nope actually the opposite because carriers with worse symptoms dont walk around infecting others without knowing about the infectious status (e.g. from severe symptoms) | 01:10 |
| LjL | don't get me wrong, we don't know | 01:10 |
| LjL | but i suspect it might be more that the immune system causes worse issues the second time | 01:11 |
| LjL | or, really, just that it can be either better or worse | 01:11 |
| LjL | after all so far it seems all pretty mixed, some people have it better, some have it worse... | 01:11 |
| ryouma | so different strains means probably no differences phenotypically? | 01:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, the timing of the symptoms also matters though | 01:11 |
| de-facto | yes of course | 01:12 |
| LjL | if you're infectious for 7 days and then you get symptoms but also stop being infectious, it doesn't matter to the virus how serious it is for you after those 7 days | 01:12 |
| LjL | ryouma, so far there's only been one strain that seems to have a phenotypical difference. and even that one is not exactly clear | 01:12 |
| LjL | the rest is all speculation and media feeling the need to report "new strain found!" every once in a while | 01:12 |
| de-facto | but best cases for the virus are the stealth spreaders staying asymptomatic all the time, they wont test positive due to developing symptoms hence wont warn their contacts and it can just spread without restrictions | 01:13 |
| LjL | de-facto, i know a certain virus that can stay latent and asymptomatic for about 20 years, and then it's invariably deadly (without intervention) | 01:13 |
| LjL | i'm sure you can guess which virus. imagine an airborne version of it | 01:14 |
| de-facto | HI= | 01:15 |
| de-facto | HIV? | 01:15 |
| LjL | yeah | 01:15 |
| LjL | i don't see any particular reason why a virus like that, but airborne, couldn't exist in theory | 01:15 |
| de-facto | in theory... how to verify without 20 years time? | 01:16 |
| semitones | maybe the airborne ones are smaller | 01:17 |
| LjL | de-facto, i hope we never have to verify | 01:17 |
| semitones | and the big boyz like ebola are the ones that do big damage | 01:17 |
| semitones | i didn't read any of the discussion | 01:17 |
| LjL | i'm just making an extreme example to show that it's not necessarily the case that a virus "wants" to become less lethal | 01:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Healthy young people might not be able to get the coronavirus vaccine until 2022, WHO says: "People tend to think that on the first of January or the first of April, I'm going to get the vaccine, and then things will be back to normal," Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, WHO's chief scientist, said. "It's not going to work like that." → https://is.gd/NzoeAE | 01:18 |
| LjL | semitones, no... airborne virus can do a lot of damage. the thing with HIV is that you are infectious for a very long time (years), without showing any symptoms, BUT then you invariably die (at least before we had decent antivirals) | 01:18 |
| de-facto | yes but symptoms alert carriers to get tested and warn their contacts, thats definitely not in the "interest" of the virus indenting to spread without much resistance in its population | 01:18 |
| LjL | semitones, so the point is that it's an extremely serious virus, and yet, it propagates very efficiently, because for most of the time you have it, you are alive and well | 01:18 |
| LjL | but if symptoms happen after 20 years, what does the virus care? | 01:19 |
| LjL | the virus has time to infect plenty people in all that time | 01:19 |
| LjL | and that's what happens with HIV, in the wild | 01:19 |
| de-facto | yes thank god its not airborne transmission for that one | 01:19 |
| LjL | my point | 01:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +22327 cases (now 38.9 million), +454 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago — US: +1643 cases (now 8.1 million), +46 deaths (now 221801) since an hour ago | 01:20 |
| ryouma | if they can be distributed, there exist tests and treatments however | 01:21 |
| LjL | do you ever stop and look at the amounts of people Brainstorm churns out for "World" since an hour ago, two hours ago, twenty minutes ago... | 01:21 |
| LjL | ryouma, it took a pretty long while before good treatments were devised | 01:21 |
| LjL | not sure about tests | 01:21 |
| LjL | but many people are refractory from getting tested anyway | 01:21 |
| ryouma | i thought you were referring to the specific virus, not the idea of one that is like it. my bad if not. | 01:22 |
| de-facto | how much do we know about excluding SARS-CoV-2 hiding dormant in some sort of long lasting cells? | 01:22 |
| ryouma | by refractory you mean don't want to get tested? as opposed to tests not working? | 01:22 |
| de-facto | i think i remember it was considered to be improbable or such, but then i heard in some podcast that it would be more common than initially thought, patients becomming immuno-suppressive developing viral diseases they had years ago and long being considered to have complete recoveries | 01:24 |
| LjL | ryouma, i am saying that a virus like that could exist, except airborne. nothing theoretically prevents it | 01:24 |
| LjL | ryouma, yes i mean they don't want to get tested | 01:24 |
| LjL | this is ridiculous https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.punto-informatico.it%2Fimmuni-8-6-milioni-download-veneto%2F | 01:24 |
| LjL | de-facto, we know it has effects on the nervous system. i don't think we know *for sure* whether those effects are from a secondary factor, or from the virus itself invading the nervous system. i'm not an optimist on this matter, but i think by now you know that i don't tend to be | 01:25 |
| LjL | what about that doctor who had Ebola "dormant" in *his eye* | 01:25 |
| LjL | not very dormant, he risked going blind, but in theory, according to doctors, he had cleared his infection | 01:25 |
| LjL | COVID is not Ebola, but as i said before about the people who had loss of hearing, not much follow-up is being done | 01:26 |
| LjL | and in autopsies, SARS-COV-2 was found in the middle ear and mastoid bone | 01:26 |
| LjL | those are not great places to find it | 01:26 |
| de-facto | yes afaik there are places where immune system would not have too much impact and maybe also cells that are very inefficient or slow at replicating the viral RNA, i guess DNA viruses woudl be much more stable so maybe RNA decays with time if not replicated often enough? | 01:27 |
| de-facto | or could RNA hide as DNA in some cells? | 01:28 |
| LjL | well, we know it doesn't behave like HIV (it's not a retrovirus, thankfully), and it probably doesn't behave like herpes (because other coronaviruses don't, and because herpes is quite special in that) | 01:28 |
| LjL | but i'm not sure that excludes all possibilities | 01:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Long covid could be four different syndromes, review suggests: Long covid, the name commonly used to explain lasting effects of covid-19, may actually be four different syndromes, according to a review by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).1A team... → https://is.gd/R1znzE | 01:28 |
| LjL | ryouma, syndromes! | 01:28 |
| LjL | oh boo paywalled | 01:29 |
| de-facto | good point | 01:29 |
| metreo | https://ph.news.yahoo.com/long-covid-coronavirus-cause-230107326.html | 01:30 |
| LjL | post-intensive care; post-viral fatigue; long-term COVID; and permanent organ damage | 01:30 |
| ryouma | paywalled | 01:30 |
| metreo | yahoo.com is paywalled?! | 01:30 |
| LjL | no, BMJ | 01:31 |
| metreo | possibly degenration of mental health especially if you've been isolated in ICU | 01:31 |
| LjL | yahoo is just reporting on the news, it's not the same as reading the actual paper | 01:31 |
| LjL | metreo, many of the symptoms are not consistent with "simply" mental health issues, and it's also dangerous to brush things off as that before being very sure | 01:32 |
| ryouma | media that implies that long covid is nonexistent or not serious has been out for a few months now but is up until now in the media overwhelmed by the articles that do not do that. but it could change at any time. those whose entire careers are based on psychologizing non-psychological are gearing up. and post covid centers in the uk follow them. | 01:32 |
| metreo | I sometimes prefer reading the review | 01:32 |
| LjL | there's already more than enough tendency to brush off misunderstood symptoms as mental ones | 01:32 |
| metreo | I think it shouldn't not be considered | 01:32 |
| metreo | fatigue is consistent with mental health degenration | 01:33 |
| metreo | There was speculation that mental distress early during the course of an infection was a possible symptom | 01:33 |
| ryouma | it would be a bad idea for me to engage on this | 01:33 |
| ryouma | but let me tell you: it needs engaging with | 01:34 |
| de-facto | their DOI is broken hmm | 01:34 |
| LjL | metreo, one thing that's not speculated but simply ascertained is that neurological symptoms do happen because of COVID, ranging from simple symptoms as headaches, to much more worrying things. those are not mental symptoms, those are neurological symptoms. mental distress could also be neurological. | 01:34 |
| de-facto | probably due to multiple causes ranging from inflammation or imbalances/fever/headaches to more severe such as infections and possibly even long lasting neurological damages | 01:37 |
| LjL | de-facto, but why don't we also consider that they just get a little stressed over having COVID, and it continues after six months just because they're mentally feeble people?!? | 01:37 |
| LjL | sorry if i make the point a bit bluntly | 01:38 |
| de-facto | of course thats also an option, it already applies to non-infected people aswell | 01:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Coronavirus: Are some soaps better than others?: With so many different soaps to choose from, Dr Michelle Wong explains why all soaps are effective against coronavirus. → https://is.gd/ZRMje8 | 01:39 |
| de-facto | but there are also organic causes such as direct infections | 01:39 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.09.20207464v1 | 01:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: SARS-CoV-2 infects brain astrocytes of COVID-19 patients and impairs neuronal viability | medRxiv | 01:39 |
| LjL | de-facto, i was sarcastic. maybe we could run a study and i think we'd notice that the mental symptoms experienced by non-infected people due to fear of COVID are quite different from the persistent bold symptoms that people with "long COVID" experience | 01:39 |
| LjL | scientists may be surprised by this (actually not) but most people are actually able to determine if they're just a bit stressed, or if they have a disease that is persisting | 01:40 |
| LjL | sometimes doctors should listen more carefully to when people tell them that something's just not right with them, and they feel it, because our bodies does have the ability to give this kind of signals in many cases (of course there are also cases where you're terminal yet feel absolutely no warning sign) | 01:41 |
| LjL | so, do i watch Virus or Contagion tonight? | 01:42 |
| LjL | or maybe some comedy flick | 01:42 |
| de-facto | yes but then how to help them? actually i think since so many mechanisms are still unknown long lasting symptoms may be a good hint for new studies if they tend to cluster together for a significant part of COVID recoveries | 01:43 |
| de-facto | so maybe they could uncover new mechanisms hence improve our knowledge about how the virus behaves and help understand more and possibly derive new therapy targets etc | 01:44 |
| metreo | I thought Contagion was very well done, of course I only saw it since the pandemic started | 01:44 |
| de-facto | something like an autopsy on recoveries just by their symptoms and lab values or samples | 01:45 |
| LjL | de-facto, i think for now, indeed, the best way to help them is 1) recognize their existence, without downplaying their symptoms and 2) studying them and following up long-term | 01:45 |
| LjL | we need to do that, instead of trying to chalk it up to mental health | 01:45 |
| de-facto | yes i think so too, there is more to it than just mental causes | 01:46 |
| LjL | metreo, Virus is about an outbreak of a really really scary virus (definitely worse than COVID, potentially) in India, that they managed to contain after "only" a few thousands had been contained | 01:46 |
| LjL | it's an indian movie | 01:46 |
| LjL | malayalam, i think | 01:46 |
| metreo | never headr of it tbh | 01:46 |
| metreo | headr* | 01:46 |
| LjL | well, you should read about the actual story at least | 01:47 |
| metreo | heard* | 01:47 |
| LjL | it's an interesting case of a well-contained outbreak that could have become a pandemic | 01:47 |
| LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Nipah_virus_outbreak_in_Kerala | 01:47 |
| metreo | I've read some fiction centered on the bubonic plague | 01:47 |
| metreo | The Doomsday Book | 01:48 |
| metreo | part of a series, all are good | 01:48 |
| network76[m] | Illusion of disease pdf ufile.io/eerk5ndw | 01:51 |
| LjL | okay | 01:51 |
| LjL | i'm not going to download that and i don't know what it is | 01:51 |
| LjL | please don't join a room just to spam a URL :\ | 01:51 |
| LjL | if you have something to say and an argument to make and it involves a PDF, make the rest of the argument first | 01:52 |
| network76[m] | Written by Mike Adams | 01:53 |
| de-facto | yuck what a nasty Nipah virus that is, another one from bats, but it seems contact required for infection, so hopefully not nearly as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 but with 50-70% lethality instead then | 01:53 |
| LjL | that was very informative | 01:55 |
| LjL | de-facto, yeah, slightly less infectious, much more lethal... still infectious enough that it could have gone out of control, though | 01:56 |
| de-facto | we definitely need to use this opportunity to improve global biosafety, there are much worse pathogens out there just waiting to happen to humanity | 01:57 |
| LjL | de-facto, SARS and avian flu did a lot of bad by being overhyped and then barely affecting us | 01:58 |
| LjL | evidently we need things that actually affect us a lot, to (barely) get the point ;( | 01:58 |
| metreo | I'm a little surprised there wasn't more emergency planning ready | 01:59 |
| metreo | It's like nobody thought about it | 01:59 |
| de-facto | there was planing in every detail but it ended up in the drawers because of costs etc | 01:59 |
| metreo | We couldn't even get recommendations on masks right | 01:59 |
| de-facto | there were hundreds of pages written about pandemic plans etc, but politicians ignored them because they did not want to spend money and resources on things that may happen out of their legislature period | 02:01 |
| de-facto | now there is the chance to get money invested in biosafety, people will understand right now the importance and agree with such investments in their safety | 02:02 |
| de-facto | for example: implement sane and safe air hygiene concepts in schools and working places | 02:04 |
| de-facto | or all those logistical challenges about resources, testing and reporting | 02:04 |
| de-facto | hospital capacities and healthcare resources | 02:05 |
| de-facto | supply chain issues | 02:05 |
| de-facto | and of course traveling and testing, compartmentalization and localized containment | 02:06 |
| de-facto | list could go on forever | 02:06 |
| metreo | Hopefully there are some significant changes to the political order coming after all this | 02:08 |
| metreo | What a truly disgusting business | 02:08 |
| de-facto | indeed | 02:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT Plus: Hundreds of advocacy groups urge WTO to waive IP rights to Covid-19 drugs and vaccines: Hundreds of advocacy groups are urging the World Trade Organization to waive some IP rules to make it easier for low-income countries to obtain Covid-19 treatments and vaccines. → https://is.gd/Zmu97o | 02:12 |
| LjL | good luck with that | 02:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +9399 cases (now 788462) since 6 hours ago — World: +6269 cases (now 38.9 million), +143 deaths (now 1.1 million) since an hour ago — US: +1876 cases (now 8.1 million), +22 deaths (now 221823) since an hour ago | 02:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Coronavirus: 'Long Covid could be four different syndromes': People with long-lasting effects of coronavirus infection are not being believed or treated, a review says. → https://is.gd/yrOZQV | 02:22 |
| LjL | i'm going to remove "World" from Brainstorm's list of places it draws its numbers from (which are currently just a few) | 02:23 |
| LjL | if anyone is against that, say it | 02:24 |
| LjL | and also if anyone wants some specific place reported, say that too | 02:24 |
| metreo | LGTM! | 02:24 |
| metreo | Thanks for doing all this by the way | 02:25 |
| LjL | this is the (pretty short) list right now: "US", "Italy", "France", "Spain", "United Kingdom", "Arizona, US", "Tonga", "New Zealand" | 02:25 |
| metreo | Ooh add Canada | 02:25 |
| LjL | okay | 02:25 |
| ryouma | ooh thanks | 02:25 |
| LjL | i'll also add Belgium and Dutchland as they are having bad spikes | 02:26 |
| ryouma | although i think my memory won't work to make a mental visual out of it or give it context | 02:26 |
| LjL | ryouma, i am aware it has shortcoming, but i have not yet really figured out a better way to present "ticker-type" changes | 02:27 |
| LjL | without adding too many numbers | 02:27 |
| LjL | i want them to be posted as soon as the data are available so i don't want to wait 24 hours to gave daily normalized totals | 02:27 |
| LjL | but that means i also can't provide a comparison with the previous update, because they may not be comparable | 02:28 |
| LjL | you know though if you see the number in bold, either it's very large compared to the population, or it's the biggest surge recorded so far | 02:28 |
| LjL | otherwise it's not in bold | 02:29 |
| ryouma | maybe you can find unicode to show the slope with a set of arrows | 02:29 |
| ryouma | or a number for the slope or something | 02:29 |
| ryouma | (just a brainstorm, no pun intended) | 02:29 |
| de-facto | yet it would be neat to have latest daily totaly e.g. ... yesterday 1234 new infecitons meaning 12 per 100k citizens ... or something like that | 02:31 |
| de-facto | because then it would be comparable each day and between countires | 02:32 |
| de-facto | *countries | 02:32 |
| LjL | de-facto, it seems easy to say "daily" but it's actually a bit tricky for me to implement something that makes sense as "daily" | 02:32 |
| LjL | some countries report daily, at a certain time | 02:32 |
| LjL | other reports multiple times a day more randomly | 02:33 |
| LjL | what do i do? report everyone at 0 UTC? | 02:33 |
| de-facto | can you somehow detect when a daily total is full or complete? | 02:33 |
| LjL | that normalizes it in a way, but 1) i don't get to report data as soon as they are out, and 2) i end up giving different numbers from the official daily numbers because i consider a different thing as the "day" | 02:33 |
| LjL | de-facto, there really is no way of doing that that isn't fuzzy or just a guess | 02:34 |
| LjL | Spec, do you have ideas | 02:34 |
| LjL | relevant to this | 02:34 |
| de-facto | its just for example i am interested in comparing the daily incidence, e.g. how many more cases appeared compared to the same duration (one day) before | 02:34 |
| Spec | hmm? | 02:35 |
| LjL | Spec, read the backscroll from "<LjL> ryouma, i am aware it has shortcoming" (lack of plural unintentional) | 02:35 |
| ryouma | can it report in proportion of population instead? | 02:35 |
| de-facto | that gives me a feeling for where we stand, and if it would be normalized per 100k citizens also between country borders, e.g. in Netherlands its X times more cases than in France or such | 02:35 |
| de-facto | per 100k citizens | 02:35 |
| LjL | ryouma, it could do that, although it might make the numbers even messier | 02:35 |
| LjL | it already takes the population into account in the *sorting* | 02:36 |
| LjL | it won't show the US first just because it has the most cases, for instance | 02:36 |
| LjL | if Belgium has comparatively many more cases, it will show Belgium first | 02:36 |
| Spec | LjL: oh i see, math is hard | 02:36 |
| Spec | i would personally give normalized delayed metrics because i'm lazy | 02:36 |
| LjL | Spec, not math per se, just deciding how to present these data, and exactly what data | 02:36 |
| LjL | but | 02:37 |
| LjL | that's basically what offloop already does | 02:37 |
| Spec | all this stuff makes little sense out of the greater context | 02:37 |
| LjL | i'm not sure it makes sense to duplicate offloop except in text mode | 02:37 |
| Spec | as it's all rolled up from smaller geographic zones | 02:37 |
| LjL | what are the "pros" of having it on IRC? you can send information immediately. so i think it's important to be able to post the data asap | 02:37 |
| LjL | offloop can't tell you "hey, there's an update!" (unless it implements desktop notifications, i doubt tinwhiskers is up for that :P) | 02:38 |
| de-facto | i would report a) latest complete daily totals (to compare for same duration e.g. previous day, yes i admit that may be difficult depending on upstream) b) normalized daily totals (e.g. per 100k cizitens, to compare different countries with various population sizes) and c) same for tests if that would be available e.g. daily total and daily total per 100k citizens | 02:38 |
| LjL | i guess i *could* provide "trend" arrows, like ryouma suggests, based on the current update and the previous update. however, if the current update is, say, just concerning the past 3 hours, and the previous update concerns the past 5, well, i can normalize them by time, but they're probably going to be a bit silly anyway | 02:39 |
| de-facto | thats quite difficult i guess, but in my opinion would give the clearest (most comparable) view | 02:39 |
| LjL | but again you can get all that from offloop | 02:39 |
| LjL | and also you can get some information by calling %cases directly, although the daily information you mention is not available | 02:40 |
| LjL | one thing i have considered is keeping the updates that happened during the past 24h, whatever they are, in memory, in a rolling fashion | 02:40 |
| LjL | and then %cases could give you "whatever happened within the past 24 hours" | 02:40 |
| LjL | but that would still be %cases. the automatically posted updates wouldn't be suited for that, maybe | 02:40 |
| LjL | or maybe they would | 02:40 |
| ryouma | arrows are probably muych sillier than slope or r of some type or something. like is it bad. should i leave the house. is it getting worse. has the second wave hit. or whatever | 02:40 |
| LjL | the automatic updates are, or should be, mainly a way to be able to say "okay, there's an update about place X. is it a bad update? is it big compared to what we'd expect?" | 02:41 |
| de-facto | LjL, interesting idea about the rolling expiring buffers, but would those not be expected to have quite some jitter then? what if a country releases all cases in a big drop and sometimes an hour earlier, other times two hours later? | 02:42 |
| LjL | i guess where it says "Updates for France: +9399 cases (now 788462)" i could certainly make it "Updates for France: +9399 cases (now x% of the population)" | 02:42 |
| de-facto | whats the upstream for those anyhow? | 02:43 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes, they would have jitter. but again every country publishes data at different times and some are daily, some are not, so since i don't have a crystal ball, i can't give it to my bot either. the solution of looking at what each country specifically does, and writing different code for each country, is not on the table ;P | 02:43 |
| LjL | de-facto, the upstream is offloop, from both of its sources (i take whichever is higher) | 02:43 |
| LjL | offloop no longer offers a "live" view but the "live" data are still in it | 02:44 |
| de-facto | from the html? | 02:44 |
| LjL | no | 02:45 |
| LjL | i have CSV sources, i think tinwhiskers is okay if i divulge them, but i'm not entirely sure so i'll PM them | 02:45 |
| de-facto | ok | 02:46 |
| LjL | i do have another source that i would like to tap into | 02:48 |
| LjL | but motivation has been low so far | 02:48 |
| de-facto | i understand thats not so easy indeed, it has that LastUpdated but still what about the jitter then | 02:51 |
| LjL | LastUpdated is tricky, also | 02:52 |
| LjL | sometimes it changes even though the numbers didn't | 02:53 |
| LjL | so i actually don't update my internal timestamp if the numbers haven't changed | 02:53 |
| LjL | then, sometimes the deaths change, but the cases don't | 02:53 |
| LjL | but later they do | 02:53 |
| LjL | so i end up posting "+3000 new cases since 10 minutes ago" | 02:53 |
| LjL | but in reality the 10 minutes ago was a deaths update | 02:53 |
| de-facto | hmm so would have to remember a timestamp for the time a number first appeared and have that expire in a rolling sum or such | 02:56 |
| de-facto | uff :| | 02:56 |
| LjL | yeah, it's trickier than it looks at first. besides, if i wanted to do something clean, i would rewrite the whole thing, because at first it was a hurried script-hack to get numbers while the epidemic was surging | 02:58 |
| LjL | now it's... long ugly hack, without even a single class declared | 02:58 |
| de-facto | i know what you mean i did a small website for my local city here to give to some friends, later added one for germany but never revealed the link because i could not motivate myself to finish it to a state where i was satisfied with it | 03:00 |
| LjL | yeah Brainstorm isn't open source mainly because i'm ashamed of much of it | 03:01 |
| LjL | ... | 03:01 |
| LjL | case in point | 03:01 |
| de-facto | also in a hurry at start because there were not time graphs for incidence of my city | 03:01 |
| LjL | de-facto, say something like that again with spaces around Brainstorm :P | 03:04 |
| de-facto | lol | 03:05 |
| de-facto | good bot :) | 03:06 |
| LjL | it uses a (pretty bad) sentiment analysis module to try to react positively or negatively in an appropriate way :P | 03:06 |
| LjL | rainbows! | 03:06 |
| de-facto | LMAO | 03:06 |
| LjL | sometimes he gets ungrammatical | 03:06 |
| de-facto | omg | 03:06 |
| LjL | bacteroides :o | 03:06 |
| de-facto | whoa | 03:07 |
| LjL | but you see, he went negative because i did | 03:07 |
| de-facto | quite a fun module though :) | 03:10 |
| LjL | i also have the classic Markov stuff but it's disabled for this channel =) | 03:13 |
| de-facto | hehe yeah it would cause too much confusion and noise (because it may be fun to some) | 03:14 |
| LjL | it does have a thing where if you call it too often it tells you off ;) | 03:16 |
| LjL | that compromise worked for some channels | 03:17 |
| LjL | %papers long covid | 03:18 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, 890 papers: Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States by Donghai Liang et al, published on 2020-05-07 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.04.20090746 [... want %more?] | 03:18 |
| LjL | %papers "long covid" | 03:19 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, 1 papers: How high and long will the COVID-19 wave be? A data-driven approach to model and predict the COVID-19 epidemic and the required capacity for the German health system by Thomas Klabunde et al, published on 2020-04-17 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.14.20064790 | 03:19 |
| LjL | hmm | 03:19 |
| ryouma | us is higher by population than its constituents for some reason http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US-Democratic;US-Republican;US%20swing%20states;US%20non-swing%20states;US&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Rate&leftTrim=169 | 03:22 |
| LjL | ryouma, perhaps because there are things that aren't states | 03:24 |
| LjL | puerto rico, etc | 03:24 |
| ryouma | oh | 03:25 |
| LjL | but uhm | 03:25 |
| de-facto | huh i dont get it, its in between some states are higher others are lower | 03:25 |
| LjL | in that graph, "US" is sort of in the middle | 03:25 |
| ryouma | in my graph it is higher | 03:25 |
| de-facto | isnt that how it would expected to be? | 03:25 |
| LjL | maybe your colors are off ryouma | 03:25 |
| ryouma | i don't think so | 03:25 |
| de-facto | with by population ticked? | 03:25 |
| ryouma | not by population --- 18:25 <de-facto> isnt that how it would expected to be? | 03:25 |
| LjL | the highest for me is consistently US-Republican | 03:26 |
| LjL | and the lowest US-Democratic but not initially | 03:26 |
| LjL | well actually US-Republican isn't the highest initially either | 03:26 |
| LjL | let's say the latter half of the graph | 03:26 |
| de-facto | it its by population it averages in between the states, if its not by population of course its on top of every state as its the total of them | 03:26 |
| ryouma | i am talking about the very rightmost numbers, but not the last number. it could be a moving average thing. | 03:26 |
| ryouma | by population for me it is on top | 03:27 |
| LjL | the very last number for me has a "jump" but is still in the middle | 03:27 |
| LjL | but yeah the moving average causes artifacts at the rightmost side | 03:27 |
| ryouma | it's hard to pick out but 13.51 is the top 1-2 points to the l of the r edge | 03:27 |
| ryouma | it is in the middle as you would expect in the hump | 03:28 |
| de-facto | for me its below rep and swing and above dem and last also non-swing | 03:29 |
| LjL | to hopefully reduce the confusion... this is my graph https://pic.infini.fr/sJnaZ1tj/RCLP8ZI1.png | 03:29 |
| de-facto | i cant see anything not plausible there, but maybe i am too tired | 03:30 |
| ryouma | idk what to do to zoom in on r | 03:30 |
| LjL | oh i know | 03:30 |
| LjL | he's looking at deaths | 03:30 |
| LjL | in deaths, the very latest number has a jump where US makes it (barely) the highest number | 03:30 |
| ryouma | mine looks different | 03:30 |
| LjL | that's definitely moving average artifacts | 03:31 |
| ryouma | no not deaths | 03:31 |
| ryouma | top chart | 03:31 |
| de-facto | i think double click, mouse wheel and click and pan or such | 03:31 |
| LjL | well... i clicked on the exact URL you posted | 03:31 |
| LjL | can you take a screenshot? maybe tinwhiskers would like to know | 03:31 |
| ryouma | tell me what to do on debian | 03:32 |
| de-facto | press print screen | 03:32 |
| de-facto | on keyboard | 03:32 |
| de-facto | probably stores it in ~/Pictures or such | 03:33 |
| ryouma | do you have a program you prefer? it is dark and idk if it would work even if i found it and idk the modal setting to get it to work. | 03:33 |
| de-facto | you have gnome? | 03:34 |
| ryouma | i refreshed (because doing zooming made it slip to the left for some reason) and now the us is not on top | 03:34 |
| LjL | ryouma, i use the Screenshot program in GNOME but the end result just needs to be a screenshot | 03:34 |
| ryouma | i just use a wm. but it is moot now. | 03:35 |
| LjL | well it might have been a fluke. the moving average does have issues at the right side | 03:35 |
| ryouma | i am guessing that is the case | 03:35 |
| de-facto | its not so easy to do that moving average on the edges, i tried to play with that too, basically for a symmetric algo at the right edge half of the values are missing (the days in the future) | 03:36 |
| de-facto | so either one have to shrink down the window size (hence not averaging out the values) or do some fancy extrapolation (thats quite a lot of work to get it right) | 03:37 |
| ryouma | so eu is looking increasingly bad | 03:37 |
| LjL | it sure is :( | 03:37 |
| de-facto | yeah :/ | 03:37 |
| LjL | France declared a curfew between 9pm and 6am in all major cities, in case you missed it | 03:38 |
| LjL | Italy's decisions were very tame yesterday | 03:38 |
| LjL | i am pretty sure they'll have to ramp the restrictions up a lot in the coming days | 03:38 |
| de-facto | germany also did not change much (yet) | 03:38 |
| LjL | but they should already have done it | 03:38 |
| de-facto | but i think Netherlands did close all places for eating and drinking | 03:38 |
| LjL | de-facto, but Germany isn't quite in Italy's situation yet. we aren't that far behind from France's situation | 03:38 |
| de-facto | so that may have quite some impact | 03:38 |
| LjL | i think that should be done | 03:38 |
| LjL | we are closing them at midnight | 03:39 |
| LjL | dramatic change! | 03:39 |
| LjL | although in theory the ones that don't have seated space must close at 21 | 03:39 |
| de-facto | closing them at midnight? | 03:39 |
| LjL | i bet that won't be respected | 03:39 |
| LjL | de-facto, yeah. the "dramatic change!" was sarcasm though | 03:39 |
| LjL | the normally close at like i dunno, 1:30 or 2:30, it was 2:30 when i was younger and went to pubs | 03:39 |
| LjL | and someone on TV, i forget who, actually dared say that he thought it was TOO EARLY to close them at midnight | 03:40 |
| de-facto | yeah they should completely close them in my opinion | 03:40 |
| LjL | i think they could be left open for lunch | 03:40 |
| de-facto | i feel sorry for the owners, but then they should get paid by the government for this year or such | 03:40 |
| LjL | people working still need to eat, unless we lockdown entirely and stop all nonessential work again | 03:40 |
| LjL | but dinner, nope | 03:40 |
| de-facto | oh i think they allow on the go selling in netherlands still (e.g. for food) | 03:41 |
| LjL | de-facto, i picked up on French TV earlier, after Macron spoke, that they had considered calling it a "nightly lockdown" (confinement nocturne) but then they decided for "curfew" to make more of a psychological impact | 03:42 |
| de-facto | so people can go buy food but outdoors probably (i guess, someone from Netherlands probably knows better) | 03:42 |
| de-facto | yeah people DO need a bit of a punch | 03:42 |
| LjL | de-facto, people who are working though, i want to try to be understanding, they are in a bad situation, winter is coming, are we really having them eat in the middle of a cold street? if it comes to that, then let's just do a full lockdown again, really | 03:43 |
| de-facto | we need a change cant continue like that | 03:43 |
| LjL | also, places where it's possible to do remote working are still only "encouraged" by law to make remote working possible | 03:44 |
| de-facto | well what would be the problem for them to go for their favorite food and eat it indoors at their own place or in working place with their usual group to prevent anonymous mixing indoors? | 03:44 |
| LjL | they don't have to. they should have to. | 03:44 |
| ryouma | regular and alternatifve data sources look very very different for az | 03:44 |
| ryouma | on r | 03:44 |
| de-facto | to be honest i am still wondering about the current main difference between US and EU, how come in EU the incidence is raising like crazy while in US it stays or only has slight increase? | 03:46 |
| ryouma | the us has variation | 03:46 |
| de-facto | EU currently crossing even the rep states in US | 03:46 |
| ryouma | like ms is better now and the best r according to some site but mt is bad | 03:46 |
| ryouma | hmm yeah | 03:46 |
| ryouma | but there are a bunch of bad states that might be both | 03:47 |
| ryouma | r meaning r_something not republican or rhs | 03:48 |
| de-facto | i dont get it | 03:48 |
| ryouma | https://rt.live/ | 03:49 |
| ryouma | although offloop says it is worse than composite r | 03:50 |
| de-facto | oh neat :) | 03:50 |
| ryouma | az is 1.07 but idk what that means | 03:51 |
| ryouma | other than bad | 03:51 |
| ryouma | 0.86 for ms | 03:52 |
| de-facto | it means that 100 carriers infect 107 susceptible each serial time of ~5.2 days or such | 03:52 |
| ryouma | which was quite bad recently | 03:52 |
| ryouma | so it is a reflection of measures and behavior and such? | 03:53 |
| de-facto | in many European countries its a lot more currently like R~1.5 or such | 03:53 |
| ryouma | r_t | 03:53 |
| de-facto | yes its the pathogen reproduction from one generation to the successor generation | 03:53 |
| de-facto | its something like R ~ Transmissibility * ContactRate * SpreadDuration | 03:54 |
| ryouma | the cases graph for non-alternative az on offloop suggests az is possibly getting better | 03:54 |
| ryouma | so idk if that r_t is supposed to predict what will occur in the next few weeks or what | 03:55 |
| ryouma | it is possible in principle as there are snowbirds who move for the winter to az and could have brought virus. idk when they do that. it is still hot during day. | 03:56 |
| de-facto | ryouma, basically if you assume an exponential for incidence N(t) = N0 R^(t/t_serial) it would be R = ( N(t) / N0 ) ^ (t_serial / t ) hence R = N(t_serial) / N(0) or the ratio of the infections between two successive generations separated by one t_serial | 03:56 |
| ryouma | and that serial is time from exposure to contagiousness or something? | 03:57 |
| de-facto | so assume N(0) = 100 carriers, for an R=1.07 it would infect N(5.2 days) = 107 susceptible in the next generation | 03:58 |
| ryouma | which would predict offloop will go up (already is in the alternative data source but not in the other) | 03:58 |
| ryouma | i got the parenthetical reversed | 03:58 |
| de-facto | the serial time is the average duration for two consecutive generations in an infection chain, e.g. duration between infecitons or symptom onset or such | 03:59 |
| de-facto | ryouma, basically it describes the character of the time derivative (incidence or daily new cases) for cumulative total cases: when R=1 its an endemic situation, daily new cases are a constant (hence cumulative total cases increase linear with time), if R>1 incidence increases exponentially with time (hence cumulative cases also increase exponentually) and finally for R<1 daily incidence decays exponentially (hence contributions to | 04:03 |
| de-facto | totals also fade off so it saturates against all time asymptotic limit), with R=0 there are no new cases anymore and totals finally stay constant, no pathogen around anymore | 04:03 |
| de-facto | well R=0 does not really make sense because there are no cases or generations of infecitons anymore then | 04:05 |
| de-facto | but with R<1 it will end at one last case at some time and if that case does not have a successor its the end | 04:06 |
| de-facto | that would pretty much be the desired outcome a time reversal of patient zero, yet unfortunately quite unrealistic right now | 04:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nigeria may shut down internet as #EndSARS protests continue → https://is.gd/1hCKRH | 04:11 |
| de-facto | ryouma, where is it cold right now in US? | 04:11 |
| de-facto | the states on border to Canada i guess? | 04:13 |
| de-facto | WA, MT, ND, MN, WI, MI, PA, NY, VT, ME? | 04:15 |
| de-facto | R<1 WA, ME, and R>1 MT, ND, MN, WI, Mi, PA, NY, VT, | 04:20 |
| de-facto | hmm but not really all on top of R>1 | 04:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Donald Trump’s son Barron tests positive for Covid-19 → https://is.gd/3FjDBG | 04:21 |
| de-facto | oh another Trump | 04:22 |
| DoomerBoomer | If trump had Covid psychosis would we notice? | 04:25 |
| ryouma | de-facto: idk but i would guess most border states, with maybe wa being less cold. there are climate designation maps, where e.g. ma is one climate and vt is the next climate up. | 04:36 |
| de-facto | i was just curious because of your Rt website if there was a strong correlation with the temp or such | 04:37 |
| ryouma | idk if ocean ameliorates the coasts of me or not | 04:37 |
| de-facto | that rt.live site | 04:37 |
| ryouma | yeah i wondered that too but i think climate zones would be more accurate than altitutde. and also culture. like in az or fl you might get those who think 70f is cold, but in the northeast everybody takes pride in saying it's warm when it is like 0f or someghing. | 04:38 |
| ryouma | and so gatherings indoors might be according to that | 04:38 |
| ryouma | also, rain -- wa is rainy | 04:38 |
| ryouma | also old buildings vs. new wrt hvac and so on | 04:39 |
| ryouma | latitude* | 04:39 |
| ryouma | but idk | 04:39 |
| de-facto | basically I am curious if its just about to spike in US too in the winter just like in EU or if there are other reasons than weather that have more impact | 04:42 |
| ryouma | articles are saying it is definitely spikiing in the us | 04:42 |
| ryouma | like 22 states | 04:42 |
| ryouma | and fauci says the us will be very bad | 04:43 |
| de-facto | but not as dramatic as in EU right now | 04:43 |
| ryouma | eu is lokoing really bad | 04:43 |
| de-facto | hopefully not, but potentially could be indeed, hence my curiosity about if US is just behind EU in terms of seasonal changes | 04:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Donald Trump no longer coronavirus contagious, says Anthony Fauci → https://is.gd/HNoioM | 04:44 |
| de-facto | yeah but in EU it already started in begin of August, was not really cold there by then | 04:44 |
| ryouma | well it could be that the average is taken down by some of the southern states like ms that are hot but not so hot that gatherings will be indoors | 04:44 |
| de-facto | maybe traveling had more impact not sure | 04:44 |
| ryouma | but i had the impression the eu had maybe a few more less-stupid places | 04:46 |
| de-facto | and to be honest i am also curious about if there already is some effect due to seroprevalence at work in US, like incidence behaving a bit less dynamic or such | 04:46 |
| ryouma | but hta tmight not be tru | 04:46 |
| ryouma | does it work like htat? | 04:46 |
| de-facto | i think so, if a carrier has a transmission event to spread the virus, what is the probability that the other party is not susceptible anymore? | 04:47 |
| ryouma | but wasn't the immunity speculated to be only like 12% or something in the hardest hit places? | 04:48 |
| ryouma | of course idk if that can be measured accurately | 04:48 |
| de-facto | lets make it extreme, say we got a HUGE recent spike and a lot of recoveries, so 20% fresh seroprevalence, one in five transmission events will fail because of immunity then | 04:48 |
| de-facto | yeah could be that its only ~10% in hardest hit areas and also fading away | 04:49 |
| ryouma | then mississippi would do better (which it is). the math could show that by now if you look at us states. you have 50 data points or maybe counties. | 04:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +8271 cases (now 181511), +34 deaths (now 10278) since 21 hours ago — France: +5647 cases (now 794109) since 2 hours ago — US: +1790 cases (now 8.2 million), +20 deaths (now 221843) since 2 hours ago — Netherlands: +1049 cases (now 197212), +8 deaths (now 6684) since 2 hours ago | 04:51 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Dr. Fauci says his kids aren't coming home for Thanksgiving as Americans 'sacrifice' holiday gatherings to stay safe from coronavirus (10267 votes) | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/dr-fauci-says-his-kids-arent-coming-home-for-thanksgiving-to-stay-safe-from-coronavirus.html | https://redd.it/jb9zmt | 04:51 |
| de-facto | im not sure if that is correct but if reproduction R ~ transmissibility * contact_rate * spread_duration would it not be reduced by (1-seroprevalence) then e.g. that portion of contacts not able to contribute to reproduction because of not being susceptible right now? | 04:52 |
| ryouma | what do you mean by spread | 04:52 |
| de-facto | spread_duration would be the duration of an infected carrier to have the ability to pass the pathogen by infecting others | 04:53 |
| ryouma | ok | 04:53 |
| ryouma | transmission duration is synonym? | 04:53 |
| de-facto | yeah | 04:54 |
| ryouma | oic it is to avoid ambiguity event vs. case | 04:54 |
| ryouma | so the idea is that r_t would be reduced by, say, recent area under curve, weighted so as to de-emphasize older data points? | 04:54 |
| ryouma | you'd think you could test that hypothesis pretty quickly against the rt.live data | 04:54 |
| ryouma | altohugh idk if this is circular reasoning (if rt.live is based partly on the same data) | 04:55 |
| de-facto | i thought much simpler: of one 1 in 10 contacts is not susceptible anymore that this one contact could be seen as it did not happen at all | 04:55 |
| ryouma | what would you do to test that? | 04:56 |
| de-facto | so (1-seroprevalence) = (1-0.1) = 0.9 | 04:56 |
| de-facto | if that simple idea would hold it would be R = R0 (1-seroprevalence) then right? | 04:56 |
| de-facto | so for example if R0 = 1.2 in a fully susceptible population spread would behave like it was only R = 1.2 (1-0.1) = 1.08 or such | 04:58 |
| de-facto | i am not sure if that is correct though, just a thought | 04:58 |
| de-facto | yeah of course its correct, its the classic herd immunity math | 05:01 |
| de-facto | LOL | 05:01 |
| de-facto | i am too tired | 05:01 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity | 05:01 |
| de-facto | for herd immunity they write R0 (1 - p) = 1 (as thats the endemic point) with p being the proportion of immune population | 05:03 |
| de-facto | hence they get p = 1 - 1/R0 = (R0 - 1) / R0 for the endemic seroprevalence | 05:05 |
| de-facto | but still at ~10% seroprevalence it would only have a minor impact, e.g. equivalent to 10% contact rate reduction or 10% transmissibility reduction (i guess duration for spread is more or less constant without medication or mutation) | 05:07 |
| ryouma | the herd immunity math is what i was thinking but i am too hazy on all the different versions of r to feel like i could mention it | 05:09 |
| ryouma | and i'd want to test stuff if possible | 05:10 |
| de-facto | yeah but how to test that? | 05:10 |
| ryouma | dunno | 05:11 |
| de-facto | you would need to different universes one with immunity and another without to compare :D | 05:11 |
| ryouma | well i am really ignorant. f or example, the r_t numbers are per state. but where are the transmissions occurring? in big superspreader events? | 05:13 |
| de-facto | do you know if bars, party locations and clubs are open in US and filled with customers? | 05:13 |
| ryouma | idk | 05:14 |
| de-facto | thats a really good question, where are the transmissions occurring? | 05:15 |
| de-facto | i think thats even the best question to ask | 05:15 |
| ryouma | the us is approximately the most individualistic place in the known universe. the jurisdictions do vary. e.g. nyc has automatic lockdown numbers. | 05:15 |
| ryouma | but most places don't care and i really fear that when lockdowns are needed they will not be imposed and they will not be obeyed. | 05:16 |
| ryouma | (and other measures) | 05:16 |
| de-facto | to be honest i fear the same for EU, we already had protests with barely ANY measures in place | 05:16 |
| de-facto | no majorities but stupid minorities | 05:17 |
| ryouma | btw i thought superspreader referred to typhoid marys, not to events. maybe it is used for both. | 05:18 |
| de-facto | i think there might be something about those, it began in party locations such as Barcelona and other metropolitan areas with the young party folks | 05:20 |
| de-facto | probably as super spread events mixed with holiday guests and travelers drinking alcohol doing party and not caring about mandatory containment measures | 05:21 |
| de-facto | then from those locations it became mobile by them traveling home and seeding new infection chains | 05:21 |
| de-facto | i think that is how prevalence began to increase in the young party folks in the big cities and it spread over all of Europe again in August and September | 05:22 |
| de-facto | now it probably is distributed in the population again, diffusing through age groups and also reaching elderly (isolated) groups because there is a gradient in prevalence motivating diffusion into low prevalence regions and age groups | 05:23 |
| ryouma | s/motivating/moving ? | 05:24 |
| de-facto | yeah | 05:24 |
| ryouma | in the us you see the d states (mostly ny though) have the first hump then the r got bad. this could be due to some of the d states having the big urban areas. and so maybe rural takes a while to get to. which i suppose would mean maybe rural places do not rub shoulders as much as urban or take public transport and so on. | 05:25 |
| de-facto | so now it exploded in regions where cluster spreads still are possible, in the cities with nightlife and party locations frequented by those who dont care about containment | 05:25 |
| ryouma | i want to say use contact tracing and shut the worst places all down but there is likely politics | 05:26 |
| de-facto | well probably my view is a bit too simple but i think thats one of the mechanisms at work | 05:27 |
| de-facto | yes unfortunately contact tracing becomes less effective at some point when an onslaught of incidence piles up at their desks | 05:28 |
| de-facto | its a limited resource in capability to trace cases, so they should target to find clusters imho in those high incidence regions | 05:29 |
| de-facto | then yeah shutting down all those potential cluster scenarios would be absolutely required in my opinion still as you say politics tries to compromise with the virus that only cares about one thing at all: reproduction | 05:29 |
| ryouma | (i could be wrong about the d states' urban areas. r states are often rural, but idk which of the urban staes are d.) | 05:31 |
| de-facto | and then they make one big mistake: assuming its health vs economy because then they place the wealthy influence (economy) in favor of the viral reproduction, that of course increases reproduction leads to lockdowns and long term struggle of the population with the pandemic | 05:34 |
| rmonten[m] | My 2 cents on the comparison between US and EU: I'm convinced that the evolution we're seeing is mostly psychological. Right now in California people seem to be way more rigorous with their masks and social distancing than a month ago in France. It's probably because 1) the situation was never really under control here (it's starting to be, with ~3% test positivity rates), and 2) good old US overreacting to "the other | 05:35 |
| rmonten[m] | side" who downplay the virus and don't want to wear masks. On the other hand in Europe the situation was good during the summer and people got ever more bold and lax about restrictions, until just now everyone is panicking again. | 05:35 |
| de-facto | if they instead would think of it like economy only possible for healthy workers without impact from pandemic they would target an eradication scenario such as some asian countries or oceania and i think impact for them is much less | 05:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: sky-high COVID-19 levels in sewage → https://is.gd/3jGp0t | 05:38 |
| de-facto | yes thats a good point that was made in Sweden too: they wanted to avoid pandemic fatigue hence never imposed a lockdown (at least thats what they say now) | 05:38 |
| de-facto | so they got used to live with the constant contagion thread and found some sort of equilibrium with it | 05:39 |
| ryouma | rmonten[m]: i would like to believe that instead of thinking of eu as a harbinger of the future case curve in the us, but i am not sure i do | 05:39 |
| de-facto | well we will see if that will change in the winter though | 05:39 |
| ryouma | that sounds like an after the fact rationalization in sweden butg what do i know | 05:40 |
| de-facto | maybe indeed, i just read it today because someone posted a link | 05:41 |
| ryouma | if it is true then i tip my hat to them for that while at the same time saying it is not ok that they are sacrificing vulnerables and courting a long covid long-term disaster | 05:41 |
| rmonten[m] | Yeah idk what the future will bring, but I got convinced that people's mindsets are more important than the weather for predicting this virus. I'm not gonna bet on anything though. | 05:41 |
| ryouma | i agree about teh countries that have the pandemic under control -- BECAUSE they took it seriously -- will rule the world (metaphorically; i don't expect the king of tonga to dictate terms to russia) | 05:42 |
| ryouma | (and tinwhiskers says it was mostly luck in that place but taiwan etc. get credit) | 05:42 |
| de-facto | yes i think peoples attitude and conviction about the requirement for effective containment plays a big role | 05:42 |
| de-facto | yeah or Vietnam, or China | 05:43 |
| rmonten[m] | It's pretty remarkable how Germany seems to have things under better control than other EU countries again | 05:43 |
| de-facto | not really anymore unfortunately | 05:44 |
| rmonten[m] | not like they're not seeing any increase, but their numbers are way lower than others. | 05:44 |
| ryouma | rmonten[m]: i am really glad to hear about ca taking it srsly though | 05:44 |
| ryouma | northern or southern? | 05:44 |
| de-facto | i think its just a delay in time, unfortunately numbers are on the raise here in Germany too, and i got furious about Merkel not getting consensus about new containment measures yesterday when she met with ministers | 05:45 |
| ryouma | like, is orange county taking it seriously? bay area? | 05:45 |
| rmonten[m] | ryouma: yeah it obviously depends where you go, but that's my general impression. | 05:45 |
| rmonten[m] | socal | 05:45 |
| ryouma | is ca d or r? | 05:46 |
| ryouma | newsom right? | 05:46 |
| rmonten[m] | Haven't been to orange county though :-) | 05:46 |
| ryouma | ah d | 05:46 |
| rmonten[m] | de-facto: I understand your frustration, obviously everyone has made mistakes during this pandemic, but I still feel like your leaders are doing pretty well | 05:47 |
| rmonten[m] | the other aspect is the people, it's a stereotype that Germans are more disciplined than let's say the Italians ;-) seems compatible with the numbers | 05:48 |
| de-facto | i really do hope so but i am not convinced that it will end well yet, every day numbers are raising and its scary tbh | 05:48 |
| rmonten[m] | Yeah | 05:49 |
| de-facto | i wish that was true, but thats a stereotype, the party people dont care here too | 05:49 |
| ryouma | if i could trust social science AT ALL i would want to see correlation of "individualism" "cooperativeness" etc. of jurisdictions against pandemic variables | 05:49 |
| de-facto | damn, +6638 another new record | 05:50 |
| de-facto | thats a LOT | 05:50 |
| ryouma | %cases germany | 05:50 |
| Brainstorm | ryouma: In Germany, there have been 341742 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 9771 deaths (2.9% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 19.3 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 05:50 |
| rmonten[m] | yeah, you're probably right that it's just a stereotype, but putting people in boxes is what we do best. | 05:51 |
| rmonten[m] | that's a lot, but less than Belgium which is way smaller... | 05:52 |
| de-facto | Belgium, Netherlands Czechia and France are above EU average http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU;France;Italy;Germany;Netherlands;Belgium;Poland;Czechia;Switzerland;Austria;Denmark;Luxembourg&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 05:54 |
| de-facto | but for Germany 6638 is extremely bad value | 05:55 |
| de-facto | its not doing well at all anymore :( | 05:56 |
| de-facto | hopefully there will be lockdowns without discussion | 05:56 |
| de-facto | i doubt it though | 05:57 |
| de-facto | they always find reasons to avoid them with some exceptions or such | 05:57 |
| de-facto | basically all red regions should be required to go into lockdown https://corona.rki.de/ | 05:57 |
| rmonten[m] | yes, it's been very frustrating to plead for new lockdown measures lately, but I think at some point enough people will panic so the tone will change | 05:58 |
| de-facto | its interesting that so many of those high prevalence regions are on the border to the netherlands or belgium | 05:58 |
| rmonten[m] | it's a matter of when people panic though | 05:58 |
| de-facto | or czechia | 05:58 |
| rmonten[m] | interesting map! But that looks like a 1/1 correlation with population density, no? | 05:59 |
| de-facto | i think its not about panic, its a natural consequence of people being careless and allowing incidence to raise | 05:59 |
| de-facto | the color is weekly new infections per 100k people | 05:59 |
| de-facto | so if it reaches 50 new infections per 100k citizens in one week local lockdown is required | 06:00 |
| de-facto | yesterday they introduces a new limit of 35 yet not sure what exactly that will mean in terms of containment requirements | 06:00 |
| de-facto | yes there is some correlation with population density indeed | 06:01 |
| rmonten[m] | what does local lockdown entail in this case? | 06:01 |
| rmonten[m] | as in how far do they go, closing schools, non-essential businesses etc? | 06:01 |
| de-facto | restrictions in terms of group sizes and contacts, event sizes and probably also closing bars sooner, i dont think closing businesses (other than events) and schools should remain open (unless they have outbreaks) | 06:03 |
| de-facto | i am not quite sure about the complete list since it was not required in my city here | 06:03 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: “Herd Immunity” is Not an Answer to a Pandemic (85 votes) | https://www.idsociety.org/news--publications-new/articles/2020/herd-immunity-is-not-an-answer-to-a-pandemic/ | https://redd.it/jbdffa | 06:04 |
| rmonten[m] | ok | 06:04 |
| rmonten[m] | hopefully that'll suffice, if not they'll probably declare some other thresholds for more stringent restrictions? | 06:05 |
| de-facto | yes they said yesterday that if measures dont show impact in 10 days (e.g. 24 oct) they will require more contaiment | 06:06 |
| de-facto | but that was completely in-transparent what they meant by that | 06:06 |
| de-facto | i think we will be beyond 10k daily by then | 06:07 |
| rmonten[m] | sounds plausible | 06:07 |
| rmonten[m] | that's the scary part: nothing you can do now will have any effect until much later | 06:08 |
| de-facto | yes thats why i get furious about the feeling that not enough is done to contain it | 06:08 |
| de-facto | then we see in 10 days barely an impact at all and then? even with a complete lockdown cases will raise for another 10 days from then (and i really doubt that would do any lockdown again) | 06:09 |
| de-facto | it easily could mean hospital capacity may get saturated as soon as December this year already for many locations in Germany | 06:10 |
| de-facto | that would be a simple exponential extrapolation of current raises in hospitalizations | 06:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 672: Black in Microbiology with Ari Kozik and Kishana Taylor: Ari and Kishana, two of the founders of Black in Microbiology, join TWiV to discuss the goals of the organization, then we review pauses of J&J and Lilly COVID-19 vaccine trials, preclinical studies of Regeneron's SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody cocktail, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/DZPqkU | 06:11 |
| ryouma | i would call this hearsy and not repeat it if i did not know the german source who told me: i have heard that the head of the german medical association has connections with a certain party that was in power in the 20th century, and that some states within germany are very much sentimentally like htat. triage is a concern. | 06:12 |
| rmonten[m] | only in December? That's really good news :-D | 06:12 |
| de-facto | of course that would be the worst case scenario but i think we have to take that into consideration when we want to prevent it from becoming reality | 06:12 |
| rmonten[m] | that's an eternity in these uncertain times | 06:13 |
| rmonten[m] | plenty of places in Europe are already at half capacity | 06:13 |
| rmonten[m] | s/places/hospitals | 06:13 |
| ryouma | i envy japan's hospital beds by population | 06:13 |
| rmonten[m] | I'm not saying don't act to prevent it, don't get me wrong | 06:13 |
| de-facto | yeah actually i feel bad about complaining, its just scary to see raising numbers | 06:14 |
| rmonten[m] | don't want to make you feel bad, I'm totally on your side! | 06:15 |
| de-facto | i really do hope all countries get in under control again, especially the ones where it reproduction is on fast raise | 06:16 |
| rmonten[m] | yes, let's hope so | 06:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +195 cases (now 190279) since 2 hours ago | 07:06 |
| de-facto | !canada | 07:08 |
| CoronaBot | Top ten infected provinces: Quebec: #1 (88,994), Ontario: #2 (61,413), Alberta: #3 (21,199), British Columbia: #4 (10,892), Manitoba: #5 (2,925), Saskatchewan: #6 (2,199), Nova Scotia: #7 (1,092), New Brunswick: #8 (292), Newfoundland and Labrador: #9 (283), Prince Edward Island: #10 (65) | 07:08 |
| ryouma | %cases az | 07:11 |
| jacklsw | !malaysia | 07:13 |
| jacklsw | %cases my | 07:13 |
| Brainstorm | jacklsw: In St. Barthelemy, there have been 67 confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 0 deaths (0.0% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 2668 tests were performed (2.5% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=St.%20Barthelemy for time series data. | 07:13 |
| jacklsw | %cases malaysia | 07:13 |
| Brainstorm | jacklsw: In Malaysia, there have been 17540 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 167 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 18 hours ago. 1.8 million tests were performed (1.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Malaysia for time series data. | 07:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: No, China Didn’t ‘Stall’ Critical Covid Information at Outbreak’s Start → https://is.gd/V2a6Lf | 07:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lombardy, Italy: +1844 cases (now 116644), +17 deaths (now 17011) since 23 hours ago — France: +5530 cases (now 799639), +10 deaths (now 33047) since 2 hours ago — Netherlands: +1838 cases (now 199050), +8 deaths (now 6692) since 2 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1407 cases (now 656051) since 13 hours ago | 07:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Countries Rush to Hoard Food as Prices Rise and Covid Worsens → https://is.gd/MXf8Qk | 07:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Research finds that blue-light glasses improve sleep and workday productivity: During the pandemic, the amount of screen time for many people working and learning from home as well as binge-watching TV has sharply increased. New research finds that wearing blue-light glasses just before sleeping can lead to a better night's [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/btU3ks | 08:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Herd immunity approaches to COVID-19 control are a 'dangerous fallacy': A group of 80 researchers warn that a so-called herd immunity approach to managing COVID-19 by allowing immunity to develop in low-risk populations while protecting the most vulnerable is "a dangerous fallacy unsupported by the scientific evidence". → https://is.gd/aHoKIc | 09:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Talks continue over new restrictions for parts of England → https://is.gd/FR72H2 | 10:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +340 cases (now 8.2 million), +7 deaths (now 221850) since 5 hours ago | 10:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: Governments across the WHO European Region contribute over US$ 749 million to the COVID-19 global response: Governments from across the WHO European Region have donated and pledged over US$ 749 million (€630.7 million) to help fund the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic around the world through the COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/OM0uLv | 10:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): 'Out of control': European leaders scramble to control the second wave, with a state of emergency and lockdowns → https://is.gd/YQwtb1 | 10:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Twitter verified our medical expertise, but we are powerless to stop Covid-19 misinformation: On social media, experts who try to correct Covid-19 misinformation by replying or quoting it may unwittingly amplify it. This strategy has essentially amounted to watering the garden without pulling… → https://is.gd/tJRDLS | 10:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: ‘Roller coaster of symptoms’: Melania Trump opens up about her struggle with Covid-19 → https://is.gd/DWuZ0y | 11:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Talks continue over new restrictions for parts of England → https://is.gd/FR72H2 | 11:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): 'Out of control': European leaders scramble to control the second wave, with a state of emergency and lockdowns → https://is.gd/YQwtb1 | 11:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Hong Kong, Singapore agree 'travel bubble': Hong Kong and Singapore on Thursday said they had agreed "in principle" to set up a bubble allowing residents to travel freely between the two financial hubs as long as they test negative for the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/vNsFKc | 11:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): 'Out of control': European leaders scramble to control the second wave, with a state of emergency and lockdowns → https://is.gd/YQwtb1 | 11:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO fears spike in deaths after global Covid-19 surge → https://is.gd/1gWucT | 12:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3357 cases (now 8.2 million), +22 deaths (now 221872) since 2 hours ago | 12:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): British government announces tougher coronavirus restrictions for London; indoor gatherings banned → https://is.gd/OL0cBR | 12:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Full lockdowns should be a 'very, very last resort' and can be avoided, WHO's Europe chief says: As Europe introduces more and more restrictive measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus, full-scale lockdowns should be a "very, very last resort." → https://is.gd/gGl0I5 | 13:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +4904 cases (now 203954), +8 deaths (now 6692) since 7 hours ago — US: +887 cases (now 8.2 million), +16 deaths (now 221888) since an hour ago | 14:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: CDC may not recommend coronavirus vaccine for children at first: The CDC said most of the drugmakers working on a potential coronavirus vaccine have tested only nonpregnant, healthy adults. → https://is.gd/kyGRvm | 14:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Malaika Arora shares one-ingredient remedy for post-covid hair loss → https://is.gd/CyzLdn | 14:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from NIH Director's blog: Building Resilience During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dating back to our earliest times, humankind has experienced the psychological impact of a wide range of catastrophes, including famines, floods, earthquakes, wildfires, windstorms, wars, and, last but certainly not least, outbreaks of potentially deadly infectious [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Kf6w6s | 15:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: Until a coronavirus vaccine is ready, pneumonia vaccines may reduce deaths from COVID-19 → https://is.gd/eVo8TE | 15:14 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Early approval of a COVID-19 vaccine could stymie the hunt for better ones (82 votes) | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/early-approval-covid-19-vaccine-could-stymie-hunt-better-ones | https://redd.it/jbeqn0 | 15:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Superspreading events could help make COVID-19 endemic: The COVID-19 coronavirus is not your average virus. During the pandemic, it has become increasingly clear that averages do not apply in understanding the paths the virus takes or when or where it attacks. What some scientists and specialists in infectious diseases may say [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/vZDL6C | 15:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1497 cases (now 8.2 million), +7 deaths (now 221895) since an hour ago | 15:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Dr. Fauci says letting the coronavirus spread to achieve herd immunity is 'nonsense' and 'dangerous' → https://is.gd/n5xzLB | 15:36 |
| metreo | %cases Canada | 15:44 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: In Canada, there have been 190341 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 9686 deaths (5.1% of cases) as of 8 hours ago. 8.4 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 5.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. | 15:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Watch Healthy Returns: The path forward with the FDA's Dr. Janet Woodcock: FDA Senior Advisor Dr. Janet Woodcock joins Meg Tirrell to talk monoclonal antibody treatments, Operation Warp Speed, and how to run better clinical trials. → https://is.gd/aPpxVh | 15:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 15 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/l4vtmV | 15:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: UN calls Europe's virus restrictions 'absolutely necessary': The head of the World Health Organization's Europe office said the exponential surge of coronavirus cases across the continent has warranted the restrictive measures being taken across the continent, calling them "absolutely necessary" to stop the pandemic. → https://is.gd/JOkZgd | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Americans might need to pass on thanksgiving gatherings: fauci: (HealthDay)—The nation's top infectious diseases expert warned Wednesday that Americans need to consider canceling family gatherings for Thanksgiving because coronavirus cases are now surging in 37 states. → https://is.gd/UFMUCx | 16:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: New study highlights risks associated with the sequential infection of influenza followed by COVID-19 → https://is.gd/FLCoDo | 16:30 |
| snake | %cases pa | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | snake: In Castile La Mancha, Spain, there have been 18120 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 3025 deaths (16.7% of cases) as of 3 months ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Castile%20La%20Mancha for time series data. | 16:36 |
| snake | %cases PA | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | snake: In Castile La Mancha, Spain, there have been 18120 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 3025 deaths (16.7% of cases) as of 3 months ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Castile%20La%20Mancha for time series data. | 16:36 |
| snake | %cases Pennsylvania | 16:37 |
| Brainstorm | snake: In Pennsylvania, US, there have been 180956 confirmed cases (1.4% of the population) and 8487 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of 17 hours ago. 1.4 million tests were performed (12.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 16:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Dr. Anthony Fauci says Trump campaign ad took his comments out of context: The 30-second ad from Trump's reelection campaign praises the president's response to the coronavirus pandemic and includes a clip of Fauci saying, "I can't imagine that anybody could be doing more." → https://is.gd/UBl2U5 | 16:42 |
| snake | i hate when there is an article about a video, about a thing that was taken out of context.. link to neither video | 16:48 |
| snake | like come on, sources? that's a source | 16:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6395 cases (now 8.2 million), +160 deaths (now 222055) since an hour ago | 16:50 |
| snake | https://www.factcheck.org/2020/10/trump-ad-lifts-fauci-praise-out-of-context/ | 16:50 |
| snake | that is how you link the video and the original context in your article | 16:50 |
| snake | i don't know that the context really makes any difference. he is saying the administration is doing an impressive job | 16:52 |
| snake | strange | 16:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Global study identifies common vulnerabilities across SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses: There are common vulnerabilities among three lethal coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV, such as frequently hijacked cellular pathways, that could lead to promising targets for broad coronavirus inhibition, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/OgxqYS | 16:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +14 cases (now 8.2 million), +5 deaths (now 222060) since 16 minutes ago | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +8803 cases (now 381602), +83 deaths (now 36372) since a day ago — US: +1309 cases (now 8.2 million), +15 deaths (now 222075) since 16 minutes ago | 17:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Report finds COVID-19 rate among dentists is less than one percent: Although assumed to be at high risk for COVID-19, fewer than one percent of dentists nationwide were found to be COVID-19 positive, according to a first-of-its-kind report in the U.S. based on data collected in June 2020. The result is far below that of other [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/y6ptmb | 17:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: FDA approves first treatment for Ebola, a Regeneron antibody cocktail → https://is.gd/PbW6lT | 17:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1165 cases (now 8.2 million), +17 deaths (now 222092) since 39 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +1113 cases (now 228748), +17 deaths (now 5789) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +558 cases (now 191137), +11 deaths (now 9697) since 10 hours ago | 17:50 |
| LjL | ryouma, see above from Medical Xpress (i know you're scared of other patients, but if dentists don't get infected they must be doing something right) | 17:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): NJ governor hopes to use a 'scalpel' to deal with coronavirus hot spots not another broad shutdown → https://is.gd/HNj676 | 17:58 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: White House economic advisers warned investors about pandemic, but not American public (10108 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/white-house-economy-coronavirus-pandemic-stocks-b1046091.html | https://redd.it/jbmpu9 | 17:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +17571 cases (now 673622) since 10 hours ago — US: +2532 cases (now 8.2 million), +18 deaths (now 222110) since 16 minutes ago | 18:05 |
| LjL | snake, you referring to the CNBC article? I keep toying with the idea of removing CNBC... it provides a substantial portion of Brainstorm's news, but i find them low-quality and too US-centered | 18:06 |
| snake | LjL, yeah | 18:07 |
| LjL | %cases NY | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Kenya, there have been 43143 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 805 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 607241 tests were performed (7.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Kenya for time series data. | 18:08 |
| LjL | okay clearly i've broken something about the US state letter abbreviations | 18:08 |
| LjL | oh i know what, too | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Predicting influenza epidemics: Researchers at Linköping University, Sweden, have developed a unique method to predict influenza epidemics by combining several sources of data. The forecasts can be used, for example, when planning healthcare provision, such that resources can be redistributed in the best possible manner and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/DtGTcZ | 18:09 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, reload covid | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: <module 'covid' from '/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py'> (version: 2020-10-15 16:09:23) | 18:09 |
| LjL | %cases PA | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Pennsylvania, US, there have been 182265 confirmed cases (1.4% of the population) and 8502 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of 58 minutes ago. 1.4 million tests were performed (12.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1459 cases (now 8.2 million), +52 deaths (now 222162) since 16 minutes ago | 18:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus testing lab 'chaotic and dangerous', scientist claims → https://is.gd/C6SpkO | 18:20 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Vitamin D and survival in COVID-19 patients: A quasi-experimental study (80 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007602030296X | https://redd.it/jbnbmt | 18:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Personality traits affect shelter at home compliance: A worldwide survey conducted during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic found that people with certain common personality traits were less likely to shelter at home when government policies were less restrictive, according to research published by the American [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/9MVdQ5 | 18:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Public health experts fear devastating impact of flu and COVID-19 on vulnerable adults: The National Foundation for Infectious Diseases (NFID) issued a new Call to Action report detailing the risks of co-infection with influenza (flu) and COVID-19 in adults with chronic health conditions, and the importance of flu vaccination [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/X5Oo2q | 18:52 |
| Arsanerit | "hoarding can cost lives", what if I hoard poison (alcohol, tobacco) to prevent others from consuming it? then hoarding can save lives? | 19:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +35647 cases (now 972958), +140 deaths (now 33553) since a day ago — US: +797 cases (now 8.2 million), +13 deaths (now 222175) since an hour ago | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Dr. Anthony Fauci says Trump campaign ad took his comments out of context: The 30-second ad from Trump's reelection campaign praises the president's response to the coronavirus pandemic and includes a clip of Fauci saying, "I can't imagine that anybody could be doing more." → https://is.gd/UBl2U5 | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +10045 cases (now 809684), +88 deaths (now 33125) since 12 hours ago — US: +1278 cases (now 8.2 million), +13 deaths (now 222188) since 17 minutes ago | 19:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +5101 cases (now 8.2 million), +64 deaths (now 222252) since 16 minutes ago | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Tourists return to Hawaii amid ever-changing pandemic rules: Coronavirus weary residents and struggling business owners in Hawaii will be watching closely as tourists begin to return to the islands on Thursday without being required to self-quarantine upon arrival. → https://is.gd/Umu8dj | 20:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6913 cases (now 8.2 million), +70 deaths (now 222322) since 16 minutes ago | 20:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, for some reason i've been refractory to look at the ISS's information for a while... but without even needing to grab numbers and put them in a spreadsheet, look at https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_6-ottobre-2020.pdf page 15, it has a time series of the median ages of diagnosed cases | 20:35 |
| LjL | strangely enough it's been going up but now slightly down again | 20:36 |
| LjL | although the data are not *very* up to date, the last data point is end of september :\ | 20:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Dr. Fauci says letting the coronavirus spread to achieve herd immunity is 'nonsense' and 'dangerous' → https://is.gd/n5xzLB | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7473 cases (now 8.2 million), +58 deaths (now 222380) since 49 minutes ago — Canada: +173 cases (now 191310), +1 deaths (now 9698) since 3 hours ago | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Coronavirus reinfections are real. Here's what that means for controlling the pandemic: The first confirmed case of an American who got COVID-19 twice adds to scant but mounting evidence that people can be reinfected with the coronavirus—and get sicker than during the initial bout. → https://is.gd/maoH0G | 21:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6245 cases (now 8.2 million), +72 deaths (now 222452) since 19 minutes ago — Canada: +638 cases (now 191948), +17 deaths (now 9715) since 19 minutes ago | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT Plus: Vast majority of air cargo companies are unprepared to transport Covid-19 vaccines → https://is.gd/zb340d | 21:23 |
| de-facto | LjL thats interesting, so the median age for detected COVID cases went down from 6.4. ~68 -> 17.8. ~28 then starting to raise again | 21:42 |
| de-facto | to probably the risk groups where so shocked that they protected themselves better than the young with high mobility? | 21:43 |
| de-facto | maybe the young then brought it home from holidays and now since mid of August it starts to diffuse into family cohorts again so the median age of infections begins to raise again? | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: WHO warns Europe virus surge of 'great concern': European countries have unveiled tough new measures to try to curb a surge in coronavirus infections which the World Health Organization warned Thursday is of "great concern". → https://is.gd/rupkpq | 21:45 |
| de-facto | btw nice report, i wish i could understand more of Italian language :D | 21:45 |
| de-facto | seems there is a LOT of info in there | 21:46 |
| de-facto | weird the incidence curves for Italy look a LOT like the ones for Germany | 21:51 |
| de-facto | Page 16 is even more interesting the incidence per age group | 21:53 |
| de-facto | majority seems to originate from the young and working age of 19-50 although the increase seems to be even steeper in the young 0-18 | 21:54 |
| de-facto | probably some correlation with opening of schools for 0-18? | 21:54 |
| de-facto | the 51-70 age group seems to be better protected and the >70 even more | 21:55 |
| de-facto | hence there is a gradient in prevalence falling with age | 21:55 |
| de-facto | so diffusion will be from young to old, hence probably the new raise of median age i would guess | 21:56 |
| de-facto | also seems the males incidence is ahead of females, are males more mobile and less careful? | 21:57 |
| de-facto | Figure 16 also interesting during low incidence period cases from non italian origin increased (seeding new chains?), then inner Italian cases start to increase sharply | 22:02 |
| de-facto | also a lot of asymptomatic cases seem to make up the majority, probably correlating with the median age? | 22:04 |
| de-facto | also most of them in home quarantine and not in intensive care it seems | 22:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from PLOS: Time trends and prescribing patterns of opioid drugs in UK primary care patients with non-cancer pain: A retrospective cohort study: by Meghna Jani, Belay Birlie Yimer, Therese Sheppard, Mark Lunt, William G. Dixon Background The US opioid epidemic has led to similar concerns about prescribed opioids in the UK. In new users, initiation [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/h8pb6b | 22:07 |
| de-facto | hopefully the old and vulnerable can be shielded now so that does not change too much | 22:07 |
| de-facto | Table 7 seems to show the fatality risk quite well 60-69 1.5%, 70-79 7.7%, ... | 22:09 |
| de-facto | those have to be protected | 22:11 |
| de-facto | nice report btw quite detailed analysis of the data :) | 22:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6243 cases (now 8.2 million), +111 deaths (now 222563) since an hour ago — Canada: +68 cases (now 192016) since an hour ago | 22:20 |
| LjL | <de-facto> to probably the risk groups where so shocked that they protected themselves better than the young with high mobility? ← the easy explanation is younger people have more holidays, and mingle more during them (aside from cruises for older people, but *maybe* they haven't done much of that this year for some reason) | 22:28 |
| LjL | <de-facto> btw nice report, i wish i could understand more of Italian language :D ← you can try feeding it to google translate, it does do PDF. they also have shorter reports that are bilingual | 22:29 |
| LjL | oh it's only about the deaths. i remember different-looking ones | 22:30 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_4_ottobre.pdf weekly average age of deaths ("Età media decessi per settimana") looks a bit scary for september :\ only comparable to the bad parts of the spring outbreak | 22:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's not the same as the italian version but this should be of interest https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_4_october_2020.pdf | 22:34 |
| LjL | (in english) | 22:34 |
| de-facto | yes i know that one already, long time ago there was a MD from italy here posting a link to that report | 22:39 |
| de-facto | yuri also liked it :) | 22:39 |
| de-facto | so average age of death is ~80 | 22:44 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes, i knew that already, but it went down more towards 75 in september like it did at the start of the outbreak | 22:51 |
| LjL | doesn't look like a great sign | 22:51 |
| de-facto | well in sept there was the begin of the raise probably diffusion from travelers? | 22:53 |
| de-facto | so not unplausible i guess | 22:53 |
| LjL | de-facto, but it's the deaths, not the cases. i'd expect the deaths to be dominated by older people, they keep saying on tv that 93% of the current cases are asymptomatic, so who's dying at <80 | 22:54 |
| de-facto | exponentially less but still if the majority of incidence is there... | 22:55 |
| LjL | de-facto, hmm, in the past month, almost half the patients have been between 20 and 50 | 23:03 |
| LjL | https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard | 23:03 |
| de-facto | nice board :) | 23:08 |
| de-facto | ooh neat they use plotly.js i love it :) | 23:11 |
| de-facto | interesting 3.3% healthcare workers in cases | 23:12 |
| de-facto | probably tested more often though | 23:12 |
| de-facto | median age 42 years | 23:12 |
| de-facto | so its the young mostly then | 23:13 |
| de-facto | yet 11.1% with age > 70 | 23:13 |
| de-facto | so if IFR(age) = Exp[Log[2] age / 5.75] / 1862 in percent, it would be IFR[60] = 0.74%, IFR[70] = 2.48%, IFR[80] = 8.28%, IFR[90] = 27.65% | 23:18 |
| de-facto | how many shots would russian revolvers have? if it was 6 shots IFR[85.8] ~ 1/6 so a SARS-CoV-2 infection with an age of ~86 years is equivalent to russian roulette | 23:20 |
| LjL | pffft, it's just a flu | 23:22 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 <-- IFR borrowed from their sophisticated data analysis | 23:23 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: ASSESSING THE AGE SPECIFICITY OF INFECTION FATALITY RATES FOR COVID-19: SYSTEMATIC REVIEW, META-ANALYSIS, AND PUBLIC POLICY IMPLICATIONS | medRxiv | 23:23 |
| de-facto | the probability for a SARS-CoV-2 infection having a fatal end doubles with each increase of age by ~5.75 years | 23:24 |
| de-facto | IFR[42]=0.085% or 1/1178 | 23:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +5114 cases (now 8.2 million), +88 deaths (now 222651) since an hour ago — Canada: +25 cases (now 192041), +1 deaths (now 9716) since an hour ago | 23:50 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!
