libera/##covid-19/ Monday, 2020-10-26

de-facto"COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Germany since 2020-09-17: Hospitalizations[t] = 223 + 39 Exp[ Log[2] t / 8.2] ]" https://imgur.com/a/BujwvAc https://i.imgur.com/BKSD2IQ.png00:04
de-factoLooks like there is a base offset of ~223 Hospitalizations (over the whole summer already) but now we also have a FAST growing exponential component doubling each 8.2 days00:05
de-factothis is really bad :(00:05
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, ^^00:06
lenawachs[m]Now Merkel has to pay. https://www.corona-schadensersatzklage.de/exklusiv-billionen-klage-gegen-drosten-rechtsanwalt-dr-reiner-fuellmich-vom-corona-ausschuss/00:07
de-factowhut?00:09
de-factowe need to regain control not waste any time with saboteurs00:10
de-factoWe need more containment urgently00:12
de-factothis "lawyer" did not understand anything about PCR tests, completely incompetent.00:17
drytrumpetalso ultra right00:17
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany warns against 'vaccine nationalism' - "Nations must work in a spirit of cooperation rather than selfishness in the fight against coronavirus", German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier stressed. His appeal came at the start of the World Health Summit in Berlin. → https://is.gd/TeFVU900:18
de-factoplease do not share such bullshit, we need cohesion in order to have successful containment not conspiracies00:19
de-factoRT-PCR tests are extremely accurate tests for many pathogens, the one for SARS-CoV-2 made extremely specific (hence no false positives) and very sensitive (hence in the correct time window no false negatives), it reacts to fragments of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA so in order to those being detected the original SARS-CoV-2 virus had to be present. Its the test with best predictive value available today.00:26
de-factoMeaning: If a SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test is positive its certain that the pathogen is present, if the carrier is still (or will be soon) infectious to other people depends on the development of the detected infection00:29
de-factoIf the test is negative it may either mean that the virus concentration is too low to detect (e.g. too early after the infection moment, or too late so its already elsewhere in the body, hence a second test with about one incubation time delay may make sense) or that the virus really is absent00:32
de-factoeither way a positive test implying isolation in quarantine makes sense.00:32
de-factoWe have hospitalizations on exponential raise and they doubt the PCR test that could prevent further infections when isolating carriers, unbelievable!00:34
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: expected, yeah00:47
de-factofirst i tried to fit a pure exponential without start offset but it just did not fit the data points from https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister tab "Zeitreihen"00:48
de-factoso then i thought ok well maybe the ground load ~ 223 (during the summer) is just the same and we have an additional exponential component on top of that00:49
de-factothis seems to be the case with the  39 Exp[ Log[2] t / 8.2] ] component doubling each 8.2 days, thats crazy fast00:50
BrainstormUpdates for US: +6648 cases (now 8.9 million), +33 deaths (now 230507) since 3 hours ago — Canada: +924 cases (now 216968) since 3 hours ago00:50
de-factothe additional exponential component seems to start around 17th of Sept00:50
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, any idea why the exponential component doubles that fast?00:52
DocScrutinizer05it doubles roughly same rate as infections did a week or two before00:54
de-factoit seems it doubles in shorter amount of time than infections do00:56
DocScrutinizer05with an R_eff around 1.4 we see doubling in infections withing ~10 days as well00:56
de-factomaybe its diffusion of prevalence into the previously shielded vulnerable groups, i.e. faster increase than in over all population average?00:57
DocScrutinizer05slightly, yes. possible00:57
LjLde-facto, is the PCR test really so accurate? honest question, i don't know what's the nonsense that was shared, but i heard a fair amount of times that many of the PCR tests that are around are not so great... in particular in sensitivity, since i understand unless there's a messup, specificity should be fine. this is all from hearsay from other people here, as, strangely enough perhaps, i've never really researched the tests... but the main thing is i 00:58
LjLunderstood there were a *lot* of different people making them due to the whole haphazard nature of what's happening so not so much control. or does that only apply to antibody tests?00:58
DocScrutinizer05the PCR tests as done in Germany are very accurate, the problem rather being they are too sensitive so after 40th polymerase chain reaction multiplication cycle you find the virus but this may be based on actually too low amount of virus in individuum to make it spread the desease - anymore, or yet01:00
de-factothe thing is that if a PCR test is positive it means the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen is present01:01
DocScrutinizer05yes01:01
DocScrutinizer05defintely01:01
de-factojust look at Australia 2628 tests per detected positive carrier https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-per-confirmed-case-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=~AUS01:01
DocScrutinizer05they are highly selective and won't shield false positives on other virii or whatever01:02
de-factohence its not inaccurate in terms of false positives, so any "lawyer" stating the opposite is just incompetent about the nature of the tests01:02
LjLplease don't say virii it makes my head hurt01:02
LjLthe latin plural of the word isn't know, but it can't *possibly* have been virii01:03
DocScrutinizer05virussen01:03
de-factofalse negatives can occur of course, already due to bad sample taking or such01:03
LjLviruses is fine01:03
de-factobtw labs are validated for their testing procedures continuously so its ensured they deliver accurate results01:04
LjLde-facto, sorry as i said i have nothing to do with that lawyer or anything related to that, i was just wondering. also maybe PCR tests used in other countries could be a bit more hectic. i think i have a page (that you gave me, possibly) where they were trying to evaluate antibody tests and also PCR tests, but at the time i checked it they only had a list, and an assay for 4 tests01:04
LjLde-facto, this guy https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/sarscov2-eval-molecular/molecular-eval-results/01:06
LjLto be fair it seems to say 100% specificity for all of them01:06
de-factoRT-PCR tests are extremely sensitive afaik nothing has such a high exponential amplification, so i really do think they are the tests for detecting the presence of the pathogen01:06
DocScrutinizer05some antibody tests are validated now, they are a lot less selective and sensitive01:06
LjLurgh, the page about the anitbody test has disappeared (probably changed address), annoying01:08
de-factoof course they have to be done correctly, starting from taking a proper sample in the correct window of time, then clean processing in the lab without contamination, a positive result double checked (they really do that despite the very good test because they know the implications of such a result)01:08
de-factothe challenge with them is to scale them to the needs of current exponential pathogen reproduction, logistics and also delivery of results01:10
de-factohence the test itself is still the gold standard, but the antigen quicktests will fill some gaps in terms of scalability and prompt results despite their lower sensitivity01:10
LjLif you go to https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/sarscov2-eval/ and then select either antigen or antibody, does anything load for you? (it seems to only load for me if i select molecular)01:14
LjLi guess they're also evaluating antigen tests now, which is nice, but it would be nicer if it loaded01:14
LjLoh, it loaded antibody now, just took forever01:15
LjLokay nevermind, they all load except noooot soooo faast01:18
de-factoyeah weird >21s response time, maybe they update their server or such01:25
DocScrutinizer05I noticed a huge delay on biorxiv too. I wonder if the usual suspects already run large scale DoS attacks against our mission critical infra01:25
de-factofor me biorxiv is fast though, maybe only when hitting a problem backend worker or such?01:28
LjLno idea, i only know about https://downdetector.com/ to check that kind of thing but it looks at much more popular sites. sometimes when things are down i'd like to see a tool that gives me an "easy" view of what's going on with the internet worldwide, but i can't even define exactly what i'd like from it, tbh01:29
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Update Finddx links (test list and evaluations) and reword → https://is.gd/41yniA01:29
DocScrutinizer05downforeveryoneorjustme.com01:29
LjLeh, that's even more limited01:30
DocScrutinizer05yeah, only site01:31
LjLi'm talking about trying to determine whether wider portions of the internet (including important sites, but also backbones, what have you) are experiencing trouble. imagine big worldmap with lines representing trunks and colors showing trouble01:31
LjLvery handwavy, i know01:31
DocScrutinizer05seen such maps for attacks01:43
DocScrutinizer05https://www.digitalattackmap.com/01:44
LjLthat's many wires!01:48
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: ‘Mini-lungs’ reveal early stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection (82 votes) | https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/mini-lungs-reveal-early-stages-of-sars-cov-2-infection | https://redd.it/jhwr1b01:54
LjLryouma, since you're back, you missed it earlier, i enabled . for Brainstorm commands fyi01:55
LjL% will also still work, presumably01:55
ryoumathansk you01:55
ryouma.cases az01:55
Brainstormryouma: In Arizona, US, there have been 238163 confirmed cases (3.5% of the population) and 5874 deaths (2.5% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 1.3 million tests were performed (18.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.01:55
ryouma.cases italy01:56
Brainstormryouma: In Italy, there have been 525782 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 37338 deaths (7.1% of cases) as of 8 hours ago. 14.7 million tests were performed (3.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 12.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.01:56
ryouma.cases ny01:57
Brainstormryouma: In New York, US, there have been 531648 confirmed cases (2.7% of the population) and 33565 deaths (6.3% of cases) as of an hour ago. 6.9 million tests were performed (7.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.01:57
DocScrutinizer05LjL: you know linux tool mtr, right?01:58
DocScrutinizer05https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTR_(software)01:59
LjLDocScrutinizer05, err, i vaguely know of its existence. in practice i use ping and traceroute or tracepath or whatever tab-completes "trace" on a given system :P02:05
LjLi'll try to keep in mind it's more powerful02:06
LjLbut my memory is volatile02:06
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid nurse: 'I thought I wasn't going to make it': Devi Nurjandoa survived Covid but is now having to adjust to a new way of life. → https://is.gd/kdnLcI02:13
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'We blame Eat Out To Help Out for our tragedy': Covid's second wave has hit one part of south Bradford badly, and residents have an idea where the problem began. → https://is.gd/OTvGPf02:22
LjL%title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-402:33
BrainstormLjL: From www.nature.com: The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-1902:33
LjLin case you need some long read for people who believe in herd immunity as a strategy02:33
LjLthey may go "okay okay you're right as long as i don't have to read that"02:33
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/i1ogbhJ 02:39
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Incidence and Hospitalizations in Germany since 2020-09-17 - Album on Imgur02:39
de-factoCOVID-19 in Germany since 2020-09-17: Incidence[t] = 920 + 422 Exp[ Log[2] t / 8.95] ]  and Hospitalizations[t] = 223 + 39 Exp[ Log[2] t / 8.2] ] 02:40
de-factoSo daily new cases double each ~9 days while hospitalizations double each ~8 days since 17th of Sept in Germany02:41
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, ^^02:41
de-factoLog[2] = 0.6931... is the natural logarithm of two02:42
ryoumaLjL: is there a tldr?02:51
LjLnot really ryouma, it's a summary of what we know about herd immunity and some of the misconceptions about it, with examples involving Manaus, Sweden...02:51
LjLi can make you a tl;dr: "tackling COVID by letting the population achieve herd immunity naturally is foolish and will kill and harm people"02:52
ryoumaduh02:52
LjLwell i know you know we know that02:52
ryoumabut i guess duh is not a strong argument02:52
LjLindeed, hence i propose it as an article to slam people with when they start babbling about herd immunity02:53
LjLthere are many other articles like that but hey this one is on Nature02:53
ryoumai could tell you stories about that journal but never mind...02:54
LjLeeeeh02:54
LjLis there a journal where you don't have bad stories to tell02:54
ryoumathere are journals i ahve never heard of ergo yes02:54
LjL:P02:54
de-factoWith a generation serial time of either 4 days or 5.2 days the doubling time of 8.2 days would mean R = 1.4 or R=1.6 and a doubling time of 8.95 days would mean an R = 1.36 or R = 1.502:56
ryoumathe formula i understand is doubling-time = t-serial/log2(rt) so like 02:58
ryoumathe formula i understand is doubling-time = t-serial/log2(rt)*02:58
ryoumapretend to understand*03:00
de-factoFrom the Incidence N(t) = N0 R^(t/t_serial) the exponential gives the doubling time by solving R^(t_double / t_serial) = 2 hence t_double = t_serial Log[2] / Log[R]03:00
de-factoi.e. N(t_double) / N0 = 203:01
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: surprise ;-) http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm has exactly those R values you mentioned for R[4d]03:11
de-factoryouma, correct since 1 / Log2[x] = Log[2] / Log[x] when Log[...] is the natural logarithm03:12
ryoumai think your fraction works for any usual log base03:12
ryoumabut it confuses me enough to see any formula that i prefer just saying log2 as programming languages can usually provide it03:13
ryoumadirectly03:13
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, so indeed the doubling times for hospitalizations (~8 days) are just one day less than the doubling times for incidence (~9 days), here even without time delay03:14
DocScrutinizer05or you do "1.4 * 1.4 =" assuming that 1.4 is the factor the values grow within 4 days. And so you see after 8 days you're at 1.96 aka doubling03:14
ryoumaincidence means what again?03:14
de-factodaily new infections03:14
LjL<ubLIX[m]> can you suggest an image sharing site that doesn't need an sign-in account?  ←  i'd once have recommended framapic.org but they're no longer operating, but the software they use is open and other sites are using it. i've sometimes used https://pic.infini.fr/ but search for "Lutim" as that's the serverside software03:16
tinwhiskersimgur doesn't need a logon03:16
de-factoyep two times a multiplication by 1.4 requiring 4 days gives 1.4^2 = 1.96 ~ 2 in 8 days03:16
de-factohere is just the picture itself from "COVID-19 Incidence and Hospitalizations in Germany since 2020-09-17" https://i.imgur.com/5eEgJZ2.png 03:17
LjLtinwhiskers, i kind of assumed imgur was out of the question for some reason because he'd be bound to know about it, plus i strongly suspect he appreciates a site that uses free software on the server side03:18
de-factoSo we are in an exponential growth phase with extremely short doubling times, this has to change, it just cant continue like that :|03:18
tinwhiskersfair enough03:18
LjLde-facto, you tell me, here, where out education minister just said hey we did work a lot in the summer to make this... UTTER SHIT THAT'S HAPPENING NOW... possible03:19
LjLat least they finally ordered restaurants/bars/pubs/etc closed after 18:00 now03:21
LjLi think03:21
LjLunless they're a loophole i missed03:21
LjLi didn't actually listen to the PM speech this time, i was sort of sleeping03:21
LjLi wonder if with the doubling time going down, the doubling time for PM speeches will go down accordingly03:21
LjLat this pace he'll be done two a day03:21
de-factoyeah i feel furiously the same, yet we need to calm and work together on this, it only can work when the majority participates03:22
DocScrutinizer05I know recommendations not a great idea at large here, nevertheless I suggest everybody who can may get FFP2 or even FFP3 masks. They really help and right now are available in stores so no shortage03:25
DocScrutinizer05in Germany that is03:25
LjLwell, KN95s that are re-certified as FFP2 are available here in Italy, and i've seen no FFP3. the problem with the former is that there are some indications that some of them just suck03:26
de-factoim telling this people for months already, most are stubborn and would not care03:26
LjLalso, these cheap ones that come folded in two, i feel their fitting is just worse than the hand sewn ones we have03:26
LjLwhat is better, a mask with a serious filter but which lets air in all over the place, or a mask with decent fit but that's just three layers of cloth?03:27
LjLi honestly don't know and i'm not sure anyone really does03:27
tinwhiskersyes, sadly we are doomed to see this out the long way03:27
tinwhiskersthis will be a sad chapter in history03:28
tinwhiskersif nothing else we will serve as an example of how not to do things03:28
LjLmonths ago, these almost-FFP2 were around €10 each here. a bit of an expense to buy one per day. now they are €2.50 at the local pharmacy03:28
LjLand on Amazon, from what i've seen it's really a bit of a roulette what you'll be getting03:28
de-factoLjL, it depends on leakage and filter performance i guess: if  leakage_n95 * 1.0 + (1 - leakage_n95) * (1 - 0.95) < leakage_community * 1.0 + (1 - leakage_community) * (1 - filter_community) then the n95 masks are better 03:32
de-factoI have no idea for values about the unknowns there though03:34
cmpx[m]Such a complex issue with no perfect answers. In the US the focus has been on "if you get it the mask will stop you from spreading it" no N95/KN95 push. Given how Americans reacted, it was moot because the ones who don't want to wear them don't and "feel fine". On the other hand you have the "wear a proper mask so you don't get it, and don't spread it" which works if you don't have antimaskers. We've failed pretty much03:34
cmpx[m]across the board in both cases in the western world.03:34
LjLwell everyone is wearing at least a pseudo-surgical here, except for some stubborn idiots, which are not so common03:35
LjLand they are definitely called out if they do that inside a store03:35
LjLso while it kind of sucks everywhere, i don't think you can equate the US with the western world at large :P03:35
cmpx[m]Well, there's riots over lockdown and mask mandates in parts of Europe this week so 🤷‍♂️03:36
cmpx[m]US was there months ago and look at us now 😢03:37
tinwhiskersGod, we suck, so badly.03:37
tinwhiskersif that sounded sarcastic, it wasn't.03:37
de-factowe need coherent solutions immediately, everything that divides opinions works in favor of the virus reproduction03:38
tinwhiskersyep03:38
tinwhiskershowever, I'm convinced that possible now with it having become so politically divided03:39
cmpx[m]We'll never get over the dividing issue in the US, not with the current political situation. I hate every day that it's about politics here.03:40
bin_bashim assuming you mean not possible, and if so i agree03:40
tinwhiskersThis anti-science, anti-intellectual movement that has been steadily growing likely means there is nothing even a coherent plans can achieve because you also need the hearts of the people.03:40
de-factoits quite simple: someone not participating in combined efforts to contain the spread actively promotes viral reproduction just with participating in society 03:40
tinwhiskersbin_bash: yeah... not sure what I wrote there :-/03:40
tinwhiskersI'm not convinced that's possible now03:41
cmpx[m]<de-facto "its quite simple: someone not pa"> Now enforce it...that's 99% of the problem.03:41
tinwhiskersde-facto: right, so tough laws could do it03:41
tinwhiskersin some places03:42
LjLto me here in Italy, 99% of the problem seems to me to be what is *decided*, then whether it gets enforced is a problem, but a secondary one. sure, there were riots in Naples, let them riot for a night03:42
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Curfew imposed in El Paso County in Texas as all hospitals and ICUs hit 100% capacity → https://is.gd/HtCRfo03:42
LjLbut we should be in full lockdown already with the doubling time we've got03:42
tinwhiskersyeah03:42
LjLinstead the government slugs away with meek measures03:42
LjLpeople are wearing masks, at least in this city. that's not the problem.03:42
tinwhiskersthe politicians seem far too reluctant to do what is needed03:42
de-factosomehow people have to be integrated into participating, if not by convincing them against those saboteurs and conspiracy theorists, then it must be enforced by law and sanctions with the danger of driving some even more deep into opposition03:43
bin_bashtinwhiskers: yeah it makes me very sad, especially being in the US seeing how dumb people behave03:43
de-factothe ideal solution would be to convince people to be integrated into the containment and shut down conspiracy theorists and saboteurs03:43
tinwhiskersyeah. QAnon has a lot to answer for. I have a very low tolerance for those people.03:44
tinwhiskers(not just them)03:44
cmpx[m]That breeds more conspiracy theorists...it's an unwinnable game03:44
tinwhiskersthey really are killing people.03:45
tinwhiskerstaking away the soapbox slows the spread of the nonsense at least.03:45
de-factoits unbelievable how much harm such conspiracy theorists can impose on simple minded individuals in society03:45
LjLabout the riots in Naples: Naples is a "complicated" city, but consider that it started as a protest by shopkeepers and such against the partial lockdown that was about to be imposed (which is kind of their right to do, although we can reply "tough luck, health is more important"), then when it turned violent, a portion of the original protest broke off and went away because they weren't on board with anything violent. so keep in mind in these situations 03:45
LjLthere can be "higher powers" involved (in this case likely mafia, specifically camorra, and far-right groups)03:45
tinwhiskersThere's no convincing those people - they are like a religion. The best you can do is shut them down.03:45
LuxInterior50% of americans aren't masking, nor distancing or so 03:45
cmpx[m]<de-facto "its unbelievable how much harm s"> It's not when you consider they have a president that sympathises with them.03:46
LjLLuxInterior, well, it's barely being mandated, and their president has been strongly indicating he thinks people who wear masks are losers03:46
LjLso yeah, blame the people03:46
LjLbut mainly for electing people like that in the first place03:46
tinwhiskerscmpx[m]: yeah03:46
LuxInteriortrue, it's not so simple as 2 bad choices, the indoctrination starts early03:48
cmpx[m]I was trying to stay non political here, I will shut up now. 03:48
LuxInterioronce you start seeing it, it is everywhere03:48
tinwhiskersI know LjL has said it before, but if the world had acted on what transpires in this channel we would be in a far, far better position, and that's not just hubris.03:49
DocScrutinizer05it seems modern achievents like internet and social media enabled quite a number of folks to deliberately use those to go back in time to a dark ages mindset03:50
de-factoactually its two pandemics the one from the biological virus and another by those saboteurs and misinformation campaigns and conspiracy theorists aiming to divide society, sabotage containment, promoting biological virus replication and destroying democracy and freedom of speech. This attack can not be allowed to proceed, they have to be stopped with harming our health, economy and freedom. 03:50
tinwhiskersindeed03:51
tinwhiskerswe do seem to be entering a new age of unenlightenment03:51
tinwhiskersbut they honestly think they hold the "truth" so... tricky.03:52
cmpx[m]Facts show they hold nothing of truth...we need to stop coddling them03:53
de-factothe problem is that its hard to shut them down without promoting further division of society, we need to somehow integrate them into a combined containment effort 03:54
tinwhiskersfacts slide off their backs like water off a duck's back. there's no convincing most of them and the effort to convince those that can be saved may not be worth the time compared to the benefits of just shutting them down.03:54
cmpx[m]Then you are trying to control them...see also "lose lose situation"03:54
metreoor conundrum03:55
metreochoice between two bad outcomes03:55
DocScrutinizer05>>I don't know it, I decided to believe it<<   >>I believe in Putin [now Trump or whatever you like] being right. I don't care whether he's telling the truth or not<<03:55
de-factoi just dont get how people can ignore that hospital ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 double each 8 days, this should be alarming to anyone with half a brain cell alive03:56
cmpx[m]I think a better approach is to educate everyone else about them, which is starting to happen. Eventually they run out of people to convince, and run into opposition03:57
cmpx[m]But that's a concerted effort03:57
de-factowe cant let them into opposition, unfortunately as long as they are part of society they _have_ to be integrated into any successful containment strategy03:58
cmpx[m]<de-facto "i just dont get how people can i"> It's old people, who had conditions already...that's their response03:58
DocScrutinizer05let darvin deal with it03:58
metreocruel03:59
de-factoactually i think the majority of people would participate but the management has to make the call for strict lockdown03:59
metreolockdowns were stupid03:59
tinwhiskersr'oh roh03:59
metreoat least at the start, we need them now04:00
de-factowhy would lockdowns be stupid if they brought the reproduction under control in many many countries again?04:00
tinwhiskerswell managed lockdowns at the start would have prevented needing them now04:00
tinwhiskersthat they were done poorly does not mean they are bad per se04:00
metreobut our economy is in tatters from the sudden abrupt decision made at the bottom of the 1st inning04:00
tinwhiskerslook at Vietnam, New Zealand, Thailand, etc. Their economies are rebounding and people are relatively unconstrained because they did it right early on.04:01
metreowe were told 2 week of lockdown was necessary in May we haven't really come out of it since04:01
de-factoexcept Chinas economy, they had very aggressive containment and they have +5% economic growth now buying all the nearly insolvent western companies04:01
metreowho did China buy?04:01
metreowell they were also welding people into buildings04:01
tinwhiskerswhat NZ learned is that most economic harm occurs in the first lockdown and subsequent ones are far less damaging but so many politicians won't go near a second lockdown.04:02
metreonothing can be worse than that first lockdown04:02
ryoumado you have a source? --- 19:45 <LuxInterior> 50% of americans aren't masking, nor distancing or so 04:02
de-factounfortunately we need a second lockdown, the sooner the better04:02
tinwhiskersand it needs to be *more* strict than the first04:02
de-factoeach day hesitating is exponentially more expensive because it prolongs the required lockdown04:03
cmpx[m]<metreo "nothing can be worse than that f"> No lockdown? And your employees and customer die en masse seems worse.04:03
de-factoi really dont get it why politicians dont understand this04:03
metreoI don't either04:03
metreoit's really surprising how unprepared our experts continue to be04:04
tinwhiskerspolitical fallout from those opposed to doing what is necessary04:04
metreoriots are spreading04:04
tinwhiskersthe experts are prepared. They are not being listened to04:04
tinwhiskerswell, ok. the WHO hasn't done so well :-/04:04
metreomaybe we have lots of problems with contradictionary information04:04
metreoand we had a disaster of a lockdown04:05
tinwhiskersindeed04:05
cmpx[m]Def contradictory info, but on the other side, an issue with not accepting bad news.04:05
tinwhiskersif you really want to get on top of things you lock down for 3-4 weeks and just cough up the dough to make it happen right04:06
metreoI don't get the sense anyone planned for any of this04:06
cmpx[m]They go hand in hand and feed off each other...04:06
de-factoyes people seem to act like little children when being told something that is bad news for them04:06
de-factohence maybe people have to be treated like they act04:07
tinwhiskersmmm04:07
de-factowe all sit in one boat with this, people have to understand the only successful containment is one where everyone participates without exceptions04:09
metreoin China they had to weld people into their buildings04:09
tinwhiskersmetreo: that's probably a bit of an exaggeration04:10
metreono it's been documented04:10
tinwhiskersyes, I read it on the internet04:10
metreothere is video04:10
tinwhiskersyes, there was welding done04:10
ryoumai think we should consider also that there are indications of possible foreign power influence e.g. by amplifying social media nuts, and that religion plays a role, and that education plays a role04:10
ryoumain the case of the us at least it seems also to be intolerance and stubbornns and polarization and willingness to risk breaking the system just to gain advantage for the in-group --- <tinwhiskers> This anti-science, anti-intellectual movement that has been steadily growing likely means there is nothing even a coherent plans can achieve because you also need the hearts of the people.04:11
tinwhiskersso you have apartment blocks with multiple entrances and you want to restrict goods and people to a single entrance. what do you do? you weild up some entrances.04:11
ryoumabut i agree -- overall we appear to be entering an anti-age-of-reason age.  when the next generations get into political power it could be worse.04:11
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: NEW: El Paso, Texas, issues stay-at-home order due to surge in COVID cases, says "all area hospitals have reached capacity" (10878 votes) | https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320508825045213185?s=19 | https://redd.it/ji3sdn04:12
metreotinwhiskers, thereby restricting the flow?04:12
metreowe just had elections in a football stadium and it was the best thing to do04:13
ryoumatexas needs to lock down immediately and even if it does they are in real trouble04:13
metreolots of room for people to get in and out04:13
tinwhiskersright. all food and shopping was delivered to a single managed entrance in all chinese apartment blocks.04:13
ryoumafun fact: there are 4 guns per (citizen, resident, person, not sure) in texas04:13
metreowhat about those videos of people screaming at night in China04:14
metreoare those legitimate?04:14
tinwhiskersthey had people deliver goods to the booth at the front of each building from where it was distributed. Nobody was allowed to leave without going through the managed control point.04:14
tinwhiskersif people were actually welded into their rooms (which I doubt) then why only those people? It wasn't everyone after all. There must have been a reason, unknown to us, why those particular people were welded in. 04:14
tinwhiskersThere's plenty of videos also showing how food deliveries, etc. were done. Those welding stories smell like click bait to me.04:15
metreoit's strange to be sure, I wouldn't expect it to work in North America04:15
tinwhiskersexpats living in china reported no such thing04:15
metreohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zp3jH6iYrnw04:16
tinwhiskersthe lockdowns were arguably too strict however they were very effective.04:16
tinwhiskerswell, sure some people are going to react badly to being restricted to their apartment. There's no doubt that was done.04:16
de-factoi am sorry to say this but I am convinced we do need more aggressive and strict containment in a combined effort where everyone participates. everything else is a waste of time, health and wealth.04:17
tinwhiskersif you cherry pick the right videos you can make whatever narrative you like, but to me it doesn't quite stack up but feeds very nicely into the anti-chinese blame game that has been going on.04:17
metreothere was clapping in NYC04:18
tinwhiskersyeah, no doubt :-)04:19
metreohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfRkcydCAFY04:19
cmpx[m]<CoronaBot "/r/coronavirus: NEW: El Paso, Te"> I am very surprised by this one. I wonder if it's much worse than they are letting on, because TX has been defiant all along.04:19
de-factoIn the first lockdown here people were playing instruments at open windows, they were "echoing" the melodies from street to street and also applauding the healthcare workers at particular time in the evening04:20
tinwhiskersoh, that clapping. That sort of community solidarity is exactly the sort of thing that we need. not the divisive politics.04:20
de-factoyep04:21
DocScrutinizer05Germany had a fake lockdown and managed to get incidences down to a really manageable amount. Then we spoiled it since everybody was tired of no-party policy and every day "corona" in TV. Now we're in a second wave and I really hope whatever will be the result zo be seen this week of measures taken ~2 weeks ago, I really really hope politicians will act accordingly04:21
tinwhiskersI hope for you too04:22
DocScrutinizer05swome smart politician already said we need a scheduled 2 week lockdown in November04:24
ryouma.cases sweden04:24
Brainstormryouma: In Sweden, there have been 110594 confirmed cases (1.1% of the population) and 5933 deaths (5.4% of cases) as of 2 days ago. 2.1 million tests were performed (5.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data.04:24
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, the meeting you refer to was at 2020-10-14 and 10 days later (2020-10-24) they wanted to evaluate the impact of their measures yet we were above 14k daily new infections on 2020-10-24, i did HOPE for a lockdown out of that but nothing happened except a few words from the chancellor 04:24
DocScrutinizer05everybody cried >>WAAH HE SAID THE L-WORD!<<04:25
de-factomaybe they should not call it lockdown then, but it has to be substancial, strict and agressive enough to wrestle incidence down04:26
de-factothe stricter the better and the more cost effective04:26
ryoumawhere does the contact tracer workforce come from?04:26
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Spain announces new state of emergency as COVID infections soar → https://is.gd/MpEyUj04:27
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: 100% agree04:27
metreooof hate it but have to agree04:27
tinwhiskersryouma: the general population?04:27
de-factoryouma, public healthcare system workers, military and helpers (such as students etc)04:27
tinwhiskersI mean you could recruit people who have had the disease already. It's likely, but not certain, that they present less of a risk.04:27
metreoI think Australia used cab drivers04:27
cmpx[m]In the US it's hired folks just for the purpose of tracing.04:28
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: ((10 days after)) that's why I said >>results to be seen next week<<04:28
tinwhiskersthe majority of the contact tracing force in NZ is regular citizens who were trained in the first couple of months04:28
ryoumamaybe they could hire those who would otherwise be protesting, provided that they get the whole ppe concept and are only protesting because they have a bar04:28
tinwhiskersthe majority of those work by phone04:28
de-factoyes we will see what happens, i really really hope for some extremely strict measures, i even think most people would agree with that 04:28
ryoumaah04:28
DocScrutinizer05today is roughly the first day we'd notice _anything_ of the measures taken 2020-10-1404:29
de-factonormally it would be like 2-3 weeks even but still i think the measures were not nearly enough to contain it04:29
de-factohalf of Germany is in dark red (hence should be in lockdown) with weekly accumulated incidence over 50/100k citizens 04:30
DocScrutinizer05I *still* hope we notice a rapid drop of R_eff to <1. Then no stricter measures needed04:30
de-factoaveraged over whole of population we should be in lockdown since last sunday (a week ago) already04:31
DocScrutinizer05I am afraid it's a delusional hope04:31
de-factobecause thats where we passed 50/100k weekly new infections on average04:31
LjLwhich is daily in France04:31
metreoany area with R0 > 1 should be on lockdowns04:31
LjL(and soon enough in Italy)04:31
de-factometreo, fully agree with that04:31
de-factoR>1 means its out of control04:32
de-factosimple as that.04:32
tinwhiskersmetreo: yep, preferably at a regional level04:32
tinwhiskerswith restrictions on movement between regions04:32
LjLtinwhiskers, but then you need to prohibit movement between regions which is problematic in its own set of ways04:32
LjLalthough i predict Italy will be virtually all under full lockdown, except the government will save face for saying they wouldn't do that, by making all the regions do it instead04:32
tinwhiskersyeah, but it doesn't matter if there is a little flow between regions (unless those regions are totally clear already)04:33
DocScrutinizer05what really makes me fetch the M134D is >>600 on fetisch party in Berlin<< - YESTERDAY!04:33
tinwhiskerswell, country-wide lockdown seems ok now too in many european countries.04:34
tinwhiskersbut if/when they get it under control it should be continued as-necessary at a regional level because that reduces economic harm for the country.04:34
LjLthe WHO thinks we'll need masks and social distancing until 2022 (don't remember if until its start or until its end). i suspect if that's true, then it will also mean on-and-off regional lockdowns. i don't know about you all, but i don't know if i won't go completely insane before this is over. to be fair, i'm already on my way04:38
de-factoits a division point, control or destruction both will have their own dynamic momentum04:38
LjLi'm not saying we shouldn't do it, i'm just saying i can't see myself retaining a minimum of sanity in this situation *until 2022*04:39
de-factowe need a Europe wide coordinated lockdown and containment effort to bring incidence down, then have strict social distancing during the winter04:42
LjLwe can't even coordinate at the country level04:43
de-factothen hopefully some vaccines or antibody therapies become ready next year on large scale to raise immunity in the population making it much less dynamic04:43
LjLmonoclonal antibodies may be great but their price needs to go down *a lot* for using them at scale04:43
de-factoyes indeed04:44
LjLand i don't know if that is possible, the current methods for producing them are just hard04:44
LjLif the price went down enough, some antibodies could be used prophylactically in people at risk04:45
LjLat least healthcare workers, they deserve it04:45
de-factoi dont know that either, yet i did not see any convincing hard argument why their production should not be scalable04:45
metreoby 2022 covid will be as controllable as the flu04:51
DocScrutinizer05LjL: we'll see next spring and summer incidences going down just like they did this year. It's the winter we need to not give in. So no, you don't need to cope with the _current_ situation and perspective for another 2 years04:55
ryoumasunbelt us peaks were in summer (possibly hvac)04:56
DocScrutinizer05WHO are pretty inexplicably clueless at times04:57
DocScrutinizer05but I tend to agree we'll need masks and distancing for another year, despite I'm sure thing will get better again in 5 months the latest and we'll prolly not see lockdowns next spring and onwards04:59
de-factoi just hope we can come through this winter without division of society amplifying to a fatal level its a real possibility unfortunately if things are allowed to progress as they do right now05:00
LjLde-facto, especially depending on what happens with the US elections (if shit happens, it will have repercussions on all of us i presume)05:01
LjLand by "shit" i don't mean someone getting elected, i mean specifically fights over who actually won05:02
de-factoi think its in all of our own hands, we need to work against division of society and integrate every group back into a consensus so we can contain damage05:03
ryoumai want to see it spelled out what the different trajectories are for both05:03
ryoumain the us that's a tall order05:03
ryoumaidk about europe05:03
de-factoworst case if division continues could be something like civil war i guess05:05
ryoumahave you stated wher eyou are?  germany?  us?05:05
de-factoim in Germany05:06
ryoumais there large division there?05:06
de-factonot as large as in other places but yet its here too, demonstrations actively promoting virus spread by refusing to distance or wear masks even advertising such behavior banners, ultra nationalist movements etc05:07
ryoumaare nationalist movements notably expansionist anyplace?05:08
de-factoit may expand when people get pressured from the impact of the pandemic when opinions divide and understanding the opposition declines05:08
ryoumain europe05:08
de-factothere are nationalist movements in many European countries for years already05:09
ryoumai mean by expansionist, invading neighbors and such05:09
de-factonope05:09
de-factonot that but separating nations blaming the European project for everything bad that happens to people individually05:10
ryoumabasque separatists, who else?05:11
ryoumadropping of varioous treaties i guess?05:11
de-factoi think those groups perfected their strategies of dividing opinions in society, its all they really are good at, so they try the same on the pandemic too05:11
de-factoyet now we need cohesion and working together on containment and also show solidarity for each others05:13
de-factoso even if people participate in such movements or go into opposition to containment we need to somehow take them on board with a combined strategy05:14
de-factothey simply are part of the equation too05:14
de-factoand actually i think right now the majority still would participate in combined containment, help with integrating them, show solidarity on working together05:15
de-factoif management only could decide for more strict containment efforts, people finally could release their pressure into participation (rather than wasting it in opposition), in success with bringing down reproduction of the common enemy (the pathogen)05:17
de-factoi think it can be dynamic in both directions, we should work together on utilizing the pressure steering it into momentum of combined containment 05:19
de-factoits a bit like a ball on the hill, it needs a kick into the desired direction and then continues to gain momentum on itself05:20
de-factoI wonder what the impact of the Antigen-Quicktests will be05:28
de-factoif they would be available on large scale there may be quite an impact from them05:28
de-factoat least they will come before any high impact therapy05:29
de-factoor vaccination05:29
DocScrutinizer05>>we need to work against division of society and integrate every group<< lost case for USA, this will probably take a civil war and 2 or 3 decades05:37
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US Elections 2020 Live updates: Over 7 million people vote early in Texas; Mike Pence’s staff hit by Covid → https://is.gd/Ent0Ii05:38
DocScrutinizer05>>is there large division there<< not even same universe like USA05:38
de-factoBtw new numbers available: + 8,685 new infections for Germany05:39
de-factousually low on mondays because of the weekend05:40
de-factoi think its 1.9x the value of last week05:40
DocScrutinizer05quicktests are too expensive still, I think that and the still too complex probing are major obstacles. Otherwise they'd allow for a massive chill down of stress in society05:47
de-factoif everyone could buy a 10 pack in the supermarket for 10 Euros, have a pictured instruction to not eat 2h, then gargle with provided saline solution and spit it into a tube, put in a testing paper stripe and look for control (some small molecule that ensures sample concentration is high enough) and test stripe (detecting sars-cov-2) it could really have impact05:50
DocScrutinizer05just for reference [german lang] https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/ministerium/meldungen/2020/faq-antigen-schnelltests.html05:50
de-factonot sure how far they are with this, it should be technically possible05:51
de-factoit has to work without additional personal, e.g. by gargling instead of sample taking with stick05:52
DocScrutinizer05well, there you already got the problems: no eating? who's controlling this?05:53
de-facto%tr  Alle zurzeit auf dem Markt befindlichen Antigen-Schnelltests müssen von medizinischem Personal durchgeführt werden.05:53
DocScrutinizer05who's obeying this?05:53
Brainstormde-facto, English to English: Alle zurzeit auf dem Markt befindlichen Antigen-Schnelltests müssen von medizinischem Personal durchgeführt werden. (Google)05:53
de-facto%tr de Alle zurzeit auf dem Markt befindlichen Antigen-Schnelltests müssen von medizinischem Personal durchgeführt werden.05:53
Brainstormde-facto, English to English: de Alle zurzeit auf dem Markt befindlichen Antigen-Schnelltests müssen von medizinischem Personal durchgeführt werden. (Google)05:53
DocScrutinizer05%tr <de Alle zurzeit auf dem Markt befindlichen Antigen-Schnelltests müssen von medizinischem Personal durchgeführt werden.05:53
BrainstormDocScrutinizer05, German to English: All antigen rapid tests currently on the market must be carried out by medical personnel. (MyMemory) — All rapid antigen tests currently on the market must be performed by medical personnel. (Google) — #All currently at the market situated *Antigen-*Schnelltests must #carry from medical #personnel will. (Apertium)05:53
de-factoah like that thanks :)05:54
DocScrutinizer05*nix redir05:55
DocScrutinizer05<from >to05:55
de-factoyeah i know that, did not know the syntax of that translator though05:55
de-factoso it requires personal, thats a problem there05:56
de-factomaybe just at first though to gain experience05:56
de-factoto really have impact they would have to be scaled massively05:56
DocScrutinizer05yep05:59
de-factoheh thats an interesting list of antigen quicktests https://antigentest.bfarm.de/ords/antigen/r/antigentests-auf-sars-cov-2/liste-der-antigentests05:59
de-facto%tr <de Die Liste wird kontinuierlich aktualisiert und beinhaltet die entsprechenden Tests zur professionellen Anwendung, die sich nach aktueller Kenntnis des BfArM in Deutschland in Verkehr befinden und laut den Herstellerangaben die durch das Paul-Ehrlich-Institut (PEI) in Abstimmung mit der Robert Koch-Institut (RKI) festgelegten Mindestkriterien für Antigen-Tests erfüllen.05:59
Brainstormde-facto, German to English: The list is continuously updated and includes the corresponding tests for professional application, which are on the market in Germany according to the current knowledge of the BfArM and, according to the manufacturer's specifications, meet the minimum criteria for antigen tests defined by the Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI) in coordination with the [... want %more?]06:00
de-facto%more06:01
Brainstormde-facto, [...] Robert Koch Institute (RKI). (MyMemory) → https://paste.ee/p/zuJTC06:01
DocScrutinizer05I hope they eventually will develop electronic virus tests that work with for example a MEMS tuning fork covered with antigen for virus to stick to and detune it. Instant operation and only needs same procedure like an electronix alc test06:02
DocScrutinizer05not that I heard of such a thing already. Maybe it's completely impossible06:03
de-factoyeah or some with two wavelengths of laser diodes and perpendicular readout by photodiode of a fluorescence marker one for small molecule testing sample concentration and the other for the sars-cov-2 antigen06:04
de-factothen maybe the only disposable would be the testing fluid and batteries06:04
de-factocould help scale production if disposables are reduced to a bare minimum06:04
de-factojust like elon musk does for space travel06:05
DocScrutinizer05or simply finally train your otherwise useless dogs to detect covid virus everybody ;-D06:05
de-factohaha i doubt that would be reliable enough though :P06:05
DocScrutinizer05it seems to work with professionally trained dogs06:05
ryoumait is not the dogs whose reliability i would doubt06:06
DocScrutinizer05dogs are incredible, they smell cancer, diabetes, whatever, and covid06:06
DocScrutinizer05ryouma: hehe yeah06:06
de-factoi think optical readout fluorescence tests may even be a bit more sensitive hence able to detect infection earlier in the initial exponential replication phase of the pathogen, so buying a larger window in time until actual virus shedding on the environment may reach a critical infectiousness threshold06:06
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +15622 cases (now 321031), +73 deaths (now 10810) since a day ago — US: +983 cases (now 8.9 million), +3 deaths (now 230510) since 5 hours ago — Netherlands: +546 cases (now 291800), +2 deaths (now 7075) since 14 hours ago — New Zealand: +5 cases (now 1940) since a day ago06:07
de-factoso maybe if they could have a metric for the sample concentration they may be able to translate a testing sensitivity into a time window until reaching the infectiousness status may be unlikely (they never can guarantee it though)06:08
de-factoso if sensitive enough to guarantee a working day of 8h absense of infectiousness, if cheap enough and available enough that everyone could afford and buy them (e.g. <1€ per test) and if quick enough that they can be done before brushing the teeth in the morning they may really be a large help06:10
DocScrutinizer05right now they cost 90 bucks, take 15 minutes for the test and need to be done by qualified personal to assert a certain useful detection rate06:15
DocScrutinizer05s/rate/reliability/06:15
DocScrutinizer05at least that's what they told06:16
de-factowhoa 90 € per test?06:18
de-factothats probably even more than PCR06:18
de-factoit should be 90 Cents 06:18
de-factoa pregnancy test may be a cheap as ~3 € per test afaik06:22
BrainstormUpdates for Lombardy, Italy: +5762 cases (now 154363), +25 deaths (now 17235) since a day ago — Netherlands: +2559 cases (now 294359), +7 deaths (now 7082) since 17 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +1520 cases (now 875320) since 10 hours ago — Canada: +521 cases (now 217489), +6 deaths (now 9970) since 17 minutes ago06:22
DocScrutinizer05just "for fun": <ou noticed the links in rightmost col in https://antigentest.bfarm.de/ords/antigen/r/antigentests-auf-sars-cov-2/liste-der-antigentests?session=6144724833579&tz=1:00 ?06:31
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Italy toughens coronavirus measures amid second wave surge → https://is.gd/50D1wt06:32
de-factoyep quite interesting indeed06:36
de-factoall from the manufacturers themselves though06:36
de-factothose antigen quicktests have on average a sensitivity ~92.76% ~ 1 / 13.81 and a specificity ~99.29% ~ 1 / 140.8406:48
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: METFORMIN USE IS ASSOCIATED WITH REDUCED MORTALITY IN A DIVERSE POPULATION WITH COVID-19 AND DIABETES (85 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.29.20164020v1 | https://redd.it/ji600706:50
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US sees highest number of new COVID-19 cases in past two days → https://is.gd/VYcWkT06:50
BrainstormNew preprint: The papain-like protease of coronaviruses cleaves ULK1 to disrupt host autophagy by Yasir Mohamud et al, published on 2020-10-25 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.23.353219 [... want %more?]07:17
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Boots to offer 12-minute Covid nasal swab test: The £120 nasal swab test will be available to people not showing any symptoms. → https://is.gd/5WC0pR07:17
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US Election Wrap, October 26: Coronavirus continues to be in focus as race for White House enters last leg → https://is.gd/lzDIKP07:34
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Singapore temporarily halts use of two flu vaccines after South Korea deaths → https://is.gd/8KISBe08:10
BrainstormUpdates for US: +4 cases (now 8.9 million) since 2 hours ago08:52
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Italy closes gyms, shuts eateries early to fight COVID-19: Italy's leader imposed at least a month of new restrictions across the country Sunday to fight rising coronavirus infections, shutting down gyms, pools and movie theaters, putting an early curfew on cafes and restaurants and mandating that people keep wearing masks outdoors. → https://is.gd/XKmvA808:55
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Israel says to trial COVID-19 vaccine from next month: Israel will begin its first clinical trials of a novel coronavirus vaccine next month, authorities said Sunday, as the country grapples with a second wave of infections. → https://is.gd/YMRRb409:04
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Fear and anxiety spike in virus hot spots across US: Preslie Paur breaks down in tears when she thinks of her state's refusal to mandate face masks. → https://is.gd/WaMhM209:13
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Watch: mRNA vaccines face their first test in the fight against Covid-19. How do they work?: Messenger RNA is having a moment. This crucial intermediary in the protein-making process is now being harnessed by scientists to to try to protect us from disease — including Covid-19. → https://is.gd/OSx3B709:58
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: U.S. may be entering its 'most dangerous time' in the pandemic as winter approaches: The U.S. may be entering a more dangerous period in the coronavirus crisis as the country heads into colder weather, warns Andy Slavitt, former acting administrator at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. → https://is.gd/VFUi2b10:07
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Needed: a national coalition to coordinate Covid-19 clinical trials: Forming a national, nonprofit clinical trials coalition will help ensure that Covid-19 research leads to rigorous, generalizable, and definitive results, and will also set the stage for future research priorities… → https://is.gd/IoyrIR10:15
BrainstormNew from Retraction Watch: Paper suggesting vitamin D might protect against COVID-19 earns an expression of concern: PLOS ONE has issued an expression of concern for a paper it published last month suggesting that vitamin D might protect against severe COVID-19.  Central to the concerns is that the authors seem to have been too far out over their skis [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/tUh3mL11:01
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine reportedly triggers immune response among adults → https://is.gd/xL5LZJ11:19
BrainstormUpdates for US: +394 cases (now 8.9 million) since 2 hours ago11:23
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 26OCT20 → https://is.gd/t2roA011:28
hstlsup, homiez. My muscles hurt, my temp is 37,4 C, i am weak. You feel dat too, aint ya?12:03
hstlthroat is ok cause i did some medical thing12:04
hstlWho is ill too?12:04
BrainstormNew from BMJ: What can the UK learn from the southern hemisphere winter?: As the UK’s winter draws in, the southern hemisphere is enjoying spring. Despite dire predictions, it appears to have experienced a welcome side effect of covid-19: lower transmission of respiratory... → https://is.gd/hjYFVD12:13
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +17440 cases (now 121093) since 2 days ago12:39
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): White House chief Meadows says ‘we're not going to control the pandemic’ after coronavirus cases hit record high → https://is.gd/EXbph512:39
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Covid-19: China tests entire city of Kashgar in Xinjiang | 26OCT20 → https://is.gd/0UxWb912:48
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Iran reports Covid-19 death every five minutes, hospitals struggle | 26OCT20 → https://is.gd/U8wf9i12:57
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: How to prevent the spread of tumor cells via the lymph vessels: What role do the lymphatic vessels play in the metastasis of cancer cells? Scientists from the German Cancer Research Center and the Mannheim Medical Faculty of the University of Heidelberg developed a method to investigate this question in mice. The aim of the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/O4WRp913:33
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Dr. Scott Gottlieb: U.S. at Covid 'tipping point' but can still prevent new 'exponential spread': Implementing targeted restrictions right now could "potentially forestall" an even worse coronavirus outbreak during the fall and winter months, the former FDA chief told CNBC on Monday. → https://is.gd/mmWQkA13:51
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: In the pandemic, my fashion has become simpler: Aparshakti Khurana → https://is.gd/SUGSoO14:01
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Covid, esauriti i posti all'ospedale San Leonardo di Castellammare: chiuso il pronto soccorso → https://is.gd/TvgOLJ14:19
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +7238 cases (now 301597) since 8 hours ago — US: +904 cases (now 8.9 million), +2 deaths (now 230512) since 3 hours ago14:24
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Average daily new coronavirus cases in U.S. hit all-time high as health officials warn 'exponential spread' is coming → https://is.gd/nlMKUy14:36
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Domestic violence and COVID-19: When it's dangerous to be stuck at home: October is Domestic Violence Awareness Month, but the pandemic has overshadowed the national conversation about intimate partner violence. This is unfortunate, particularly because COVID-19 has increased the severity of domestic abuse. Barbara Paradiso, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/hvrcjG14:46
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Possibility of magnesium supplementation for supportive treatment in patients with COVID-19 (80 votes) | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7486870/ | https://redd.it/jhvgfi14:54
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 26 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/leTcva14:55
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Real-time opioid overdose tracking system helps show rise after COVID-19's arrival: COVID-19 may dominate the headlines. But another epidemic that was already raging before it arrived has flared up in recent months, too, according to new University of Michigan data. → https://is.gd/EEIYXG15:59
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 containment shaped by strength, duration of natural, vaccine-induced immunity: "Much of the discussion so far related to the future trajectory of COVID-19 has rightly been focused on the effects of seasonality and non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs], such as mask-wearing and physical distancing," said co-first [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/f8UTI416:08
BrainstormUpdates for US: +6633 cases (now 8.9 million), +30 deaths (now 230542) since an hour ago16:10
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: T-cells from recovered COVID-19 patients show promise to protect vulnerable patients from infection: T-cells taken from the blood of people who recovered from a COVID-19 infection can be successfully multiplied in the lab and maintain the ability to effectively target proteins that are key to the virus's function, according to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/t4bsKG16:17
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Trump claims the worsening U.S. coronavirus outbreak is a 'Fake News Media Conspiracy' even as hospitalizations rise → https://is.gd/F3pjGa16:44
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Watch live: The World Health Organization holds a press briefing on the coronavirus as pandemic worsens in the U.S. → https://is.gd/N8LmsV16:53
cmpx[m]🤦‍♂️16:54
BrainstormUpdates for US: +1296 cases (now 8.9 million), +14 deaths (now 230556) since an hour ago — Canada: +274 cases (now 217763), +10 deaths (now 9962) since an hour ago17:05
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +17007 cases (now 542789), +141 deaths (now 37479) since a day ago17:20
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Sixty seconds on . . . sewage: The latest target in the fight against covid-19?Spot on. Though it’s not that new. Scientists have been collecting wastewater to check for RNA from SARS-CoV-2 in sewage since the start of the... → https://is.gd/zuCPwN17:21
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Can 'circuit-breaker' lockdowns save Europe from a second coronavirus wave? → https://is.gd/hikMD917:48
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Prevention and Treatment With Calcifediol of COVID-19 Induced Acute Respiratory Syndrome (80 votes) | https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04366908 | https://redd.it/jhw0ev18:02
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Longitudinal observation and decline of neutralizing antibody responses in the three months following SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans (81 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00813-8 | https://redd.it/jiem9d18:14
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Lo sfogo della specializzanda: "Ho visto giovani ricoverati, figli terrorizzati, colleghi già stremati. Oggi, non a marzo" → https://is.gd/ADrSd118:26
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Factors ID'd for strong antibody response in COVID-19: (HealthDay)—Sex, age, and severity of disease can predict increased antibody response in COVID-19 survivors, according to a study published recently in the Journal of Clinical Investigation. → https://is.gd/ukw4Oe18:36
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Dramatic Clinical Improvement in Nine Consecutive Acutely Ill Elderly COVID-19 Patients Treated with a Nicotinamide Mononucleotide Cocktail: A Case Series (80 votes) | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3677428 | https://redd.it/ji82c518:39
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: COVID-19-related death up for adults with Down syndrome: (HealthDay)—Adults with Down syndrome have an increased risk for COVID-19-related death, according to a research letter published online Oct. 21 in the Annals of Internal Medicine. → https://is.gd/iW2UiZ18:46
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: The mortality due to COVID-19 in different nations is associated with the demographic character of nations and the prevalence of autoimmunity (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.31.20165696v2.full | https://redd.it/jif37618:50
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +19370 cases (now 894690) since 12 hours ago — US: +7744 cases (now 8.9 million), +53 deaths (now 230609) since an hour ago — Canada: +696 cases (now 218459) since an hour ago18:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Coronavirus deaths are rising again in the US, as feared: Deaths per day from the coronavirus in the U.S. are on the rise again, just as health experts had feared, and cases are climbing in nearly every state, despite assurances from President Donald Trump over the weekend that "we're rounding the turn, we're doing great." → https://is.gd/iHcGCm18:55
BrainstormUpdates for US: +1298 cases (now 8.9 million), +22 deaths (now 230631) since 16 minutes ago19:05
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Dangerous COVID-19 syndrome first seen in kids also strikes adults: (HealthDay)—When the new coronavirus pandemic first began, respiratory distress immediately became the hallmark of severe COVID-19 illness. News reports focused on the inability to breathe, low oxygen saturation levels and the alarming need for ventilators. → https://is.gd/xtmrAg19:14
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: US health official says pandemic clearly can be controlled: A day after White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said "we're not going to control the pandemic," a top Trump administration health official said Monday that Americans have already proven they can do that through basic safeguards shown to work. → https://is.gd/FknZMp19:33
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: France braces for tougher restrictions as virus cases soar: France could announce tougher measures later this week to bring the coronavirus under control after the number of daily cases topped 50,000 for the first time, government sources suggested on Monday. → https://is.gd/PQYU2y19:43
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Localized vaccination surveillance could help prevent measles outbreaks: Access to more localized data on childhood vaccination coverage, such as at the school or neighborhood levels, could help better predict and prevent measles outbreaks in the United States, according to a new University of Michigan study. → https://is.gd/TrYej920:02
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Poland: There are no places in the hospital, the patients are lying in the entrance hall for ambulances. "We had no choice" (10158 votes) | https://tvn24.pl/poznan/gorzow-wlkp-pacjenci-z-koronawirusem-w-hali-wjazdowej-dla-karetek-4731027 | https://redd.it/jiep1c20:27
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: WHO says getting the worsening Covid outbreak under control may require 'sacrifice for many, many people': As new cases accelerate in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, some countries may need to impose stricter virus measures again, the WHO said. → https://is.gd/Vzybmt20:40
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Coronavirus Disease 2019 and the Athletic Heart (80 votes) | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2772399 | https://redd.it/jig8ma20:46
BrainstormNew from StatNews: WHO warns giving up on efforts to control virus would be ‘dangerous’: The WHO warned countries against giving up on efforts to control the coronavirus pandemic, with the head of the agency saying doing so would be “dangerous.” → https://is.gd/GpZwog20:59
LjLi don't really understand why cases per capita are still increasing so slowly in Germany compared to Italy, France, Spain, the UK... yes, i realize it's not "slowly" in absolute term as it's exponential increase, but relatively speaking, why are they still so much below? i'm not aware of much harsher restrictions in Germany. is it going to be just because those other countries still had more cases from the first wave, so the second wave had more fuel to 20:59
LjLits fire?20:59
de-factoLjL, yes i think so Germany was a few weeks behind other countries in terms of the pathogen reproduction, now the gap is consumed fast though, its getting worse quickly here too like everywhere else in Europe21:05
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +46126 cases (now 1.2 million), +279 deaths (now 35031) since 3 days ago — France: +26771 cases (now 1.2 million), +257 deaths (now 35018) since a day ago — US: +21165 cases (now 8.9 million), +148 deaths (now 230779) since 2 hours ago — Canada: +156 cases (now 218615), +16 deaths (now 9978) since 2 hours ago21:06
BrainstormNew from PLOS ONE: The association between change of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor R1 (sTNF-R1) measurements and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality—Results from the population-based (Cardiovascular Disease, Living and Ageing in Halle) CARLA study 2002–2016: by Lamiaa Hassan, Daniel Medenwald, Daniel Tiller, Alexander Kluttig, Beatrice [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/dIXt7A21:08
Jigsy%cases UK21:10
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 894690 confirmed cases (1.3% of the population) and 45712 deaths (5.1% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 32.2 million tests were performed (2.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.21:11
JigsyAlmost 900,00021:11
Jigsy+ .21:11
BrainstormUpdates for US: +6105 cases (now 8.9 million), +50 deaths (now 230829) since 18 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +801 cases (now 238964), +1 deaths (now 5875) since a day ago21:21
de-factoFitting an exponential on COVID-19 Fatalities for EU since 2020-09-17 while allowing for an offset gives Fatalities[t] = 164 + 94 Exp[ Log[2] t / 12 ]21:31
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/FlkXylw21:31
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Fatalities in EU since 2020-09-17 - Album on Imgur21:31
de-factoso it seems that Fatalities doubled each ~12 days for the exponential on top of that ground level of 164 offset21:33
de-factoExtrapolating that it would mean daily 4418 fatalities in EU on 2020-12-31, summing up to an additional total of 85201 fatalities till the end of the year 2020 hence an additional 52% on top of current 164347 fatalities21:44
de-factonot to speak of next year21:44
de-factooh correction: that was summed up from 2020-09-1721:46
de-factoThe extrapolation was completely wrong before correction:21:57
de-factoExtrapolating with that function fatalities[t] = 164 + 94 Exp[Log[2] t / 12] since 2020-09-17 from yesterday 2020-10-25 (40 days after 2020-09-17) to 2020-12-31 (40+67 after 2020-09-17), it would increase daily new fatalities from fatalities[40] ~ 1111 to fatalities[40+67] ~ 45591 on 2020-12-31 summing up to 804594 additional fatalities thats +490% on top of current 16434721:57
de-factoso 45k daily and 800k accumulated till end of the year that would be scary21:58
de-factohopefully we can prevent that by slowing it down and forcing R<121:58
BrainstormUpdates for US: +7427 cases (now 8.9 million), +59 deaths (now 230888) since an hour ago — Canada: +24 cases (now 218639) since an hour ago22:21
cmpx[m]%cases US22:22
Brainstormcmpx[m]: In US, there have been 8.9 million confirmed cases (2.7% of the population) and 230888 deaths (2.6% of cases) as of 2 minutes ago. 133.2 million tests were performed (6.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.22:22
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Giving up on virus control 'dangerous': WHO chief: The World Health Organization chief warned Monday that abandoning efforts to control the coronavirus pandemic, as suggested by a top US official, was "dangerous", urging countries not to "give up". → https://is.gd/lentu322:23
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: A large national outbreak of COVID-19 linked to air travel, Ireland, summer 2020 (81 votes) | https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624#html_fulltext | https://redd.it/jijujn22:23
metreo1.cases canada23:05
Brainstormmetreo1: In Canada, there have been 218639 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 9978 deaths (4.6% of cases) as of 45 minutes ago. 9.6 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 5.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data.23:05
LjLriots in Milan now23:05
metreo1Milan?? Is that common?23:05
LjLwhat do you mean "common", it's not common in general, curfews are not common23:05
LjLthere have been riot in other cities with the curfew as an excuse23:06
LjLinitially Naples23:06
LjLhttps://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/topnews/2020/10/26/covid-proteste-milano-lancio-molotov_3179a98d-c91a-4d58-9f6d-2b2b1ef9a419.html23:06
metreo1I can't remember ever hearing about riots in Milan before covid23:06
LjLin Naples it started being the shopkeepers protesting, but then later they left the protest because violent people started doing violence. later shopkeepers tried to clarify they were not those people23:06
de-factoany particular reason that initiated the riot in Milan? was it the curfew?23:07
metreo1I think so yes23:07
metreo1.cases Milan23:08
Brainstormmetreo1: Sorry, Milan not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.23:08
metreo1.cases Italy23:08
Brainstormmetreo1: In Italy, there have been 542789 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 37479 deaths (6.9% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 14.8 million tests were performed (3.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 12.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data.23:08
LjLde-facto, yes, same as in the other cities, at least that was the excuse23:09
de-factoits crazy i really do wish for a curfew here, but other people dont seem to agree23:10
metreo1throwing bombs won't change laws23:11
de-factoI am curious, in Milan the curfew is at what time in the evening?23:11
LjL2323:12
LjLi.e. 12 minutes ago23:12
LjLbut the new decree also says that you can't serve food or drinks after 1823:12
LjLthat is the part that made everybody mad, at least on the surface23:12
LjLi mean, it's possible that at first it was just shopkeepers (and restaurants, pubs etc) who wanted to protest against that23:13
LjLbut you know23:13
LjLthese people are breaking shops23:13
LjLso it's *somewhat* unlikely it's them23:13
de-factook but thats a very mild restriction to freedom, i can imagine restaurant and bar owners will have quite some loss from that though, still i think its a good idea to have such restrictions23:13
LjLde-facto, rumor has it that far-right groups organized via social media / SMS to make violent protests. again, if it were actually the bar and restaurant owners protesting, they wouldn't destroy the dehors of bars and restaurants23:15
LjLit's natural that they would protest, but they weren't going to throw bombs and break shit23:16
at worst they would violate the curfew for a night while holding up their phones with the flashlight on, that's how it started in Naples, then "people" started throwing stuff at police and everything went to shit23:17
Brainstorm!23:17
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: 85% of Russian Coronavirus Vaccine Volunteers See No Side Effects – Developer | 26OCT20 → https://is.gd/ugmZay23:22
LjL`https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fmilano.repubblica.it%2Fcronaca%2F2020%2F10%2F26%2Fnews%2Fproteste_milano_molotov-271965025%2F%3Fref%3DRHTP-BH-I271771718-P1-S1-T223:22
de-factoi have no idea how, but those somehow have to be re-integrated into society and be part of a combined containment concept23:26
LjLi mean, the "i have no idea how" part is a pretty big hurdle to that concept23:27
de-factoyes 23:27
LjLthey are literally boycotting containment, you said we should have *stricter* containment and maybe everyone would get excited and take part23:27
LjLthat seems... unlikely?23:27
LjLmaybe i'm misrepresenting your words, i skimmed yesterday23:27
de-factoi think that there is a lot of pressure from the tense situation the pandemic loads onto peoples minds, they have the feeling something has to change, they want to do something about it, thats what i meant with momentum23:28
de-factoif people could collaborate on containment until they see some early signs of success they may see a hope that their actions are useful and momentum may develop into that direction23:29
LjLbut some of these don't even believe the pandemic is a real thing23:29
de-factobut maybe it also can go into the opposite direction23:29
LjLthey think containment efforts are just their to take away their freedom and the pandemic is an excuse23:30
de-factoyeah its surreal23:30
LjLon an unrelated note, today i learned we're not even "western"23:31
LjLA small 2018 study of truck drivers found those who ate diets rich in vegetables and fats from foods like olive oil and dairy tended to experience less post-meal sleepiness than those eating “Western” diets heavy in processed meat, fast food and soft drinks. 23:31
LjLhence: med diet ain't western23:32
LjLthanks, i guess we stop eating pigs too23:32
LjL( https://time.com/5515553/sleepy-after-eating/ )23:32
de-factoi thought mediterranean diet is one of the healthiest ways to eat23:33
LjLmaybe it it, but that's got nothing to do with the point :P23:33
LjLit's says that "western" diets are heavy in blha blah unlike those "rich in vegetables and ... olive oil and dairy", which pretty much describes the med diet23:34
LjL> it's says23:34
de-factoah i see23:34
LjLergo, it's saying that the mediterranean diet is not "western"23:34
de-factoprobably written by an american?23:34
LjLeither that, or maybe they are among the ranks of those who want us to make a med union with greece and spain and portugal and fuck off of the EU23:35
de-factoDetroit23:35
LjLmaybe americans should say "American" when they mean american23:36
LjLi'm pretty cranky today. maybe i should get on the street and throw some molotov cocktails23:37
LjLrelease some tension, spend a night in jail23:37
ubLIX[m]take it as a compliment, to be excluded from the 'western diet'23:41
de-factoI feel it too, i get furious at many things lately, feeling the urge to do something, especially because politics are not acting according to the incidence raise, yet i would not want to do harm23:42
de-factothats why i envy countries implementing containment measures, it would be a big relief for me if i knew something with potential impact was decided and implemented23:46
de-factoi really do hope they come to that conclusion here too, better sooner than later23:46
LjLde-facto, well as you can see it's not completely trouble-free and it's not actually achieving anything just yet (yes i know the graphs are delayed)23:46
LjLbut also i would have gone with a full lockdown23:46
LjLthese curfews etc... they give too much wiggle room, including for riots23:46
LjL"it's not right that X can and Y can't"23:47
LjLde-facto, Conte said something to justify the "slow" reaction that i find silly: "it's not that we're behind the virus, it's the virus that's running very fast"23:50
LjLbut we can see how fast it's running, and we can fit an exponential and extrapolate23:50
LjLso if you're making a new decree every three days because by the time you make one, it's already not enough...23:50
LjLyou are simply not using the science we have that can predict where things will be in a few days23:50
LjLthere are WAY too many things we can't predict about this virus, but if we don't even use the little we CAN predict... good luck to us, then we really need metreo's prayesr23:51
BrainstormUpdates for US: +9878 cases (now 9.0 million), +68 deaths (now 230956) since an hour ago — Canada: +98 cases (now 218737), +1 deaths (now 9979) since an hour ago23:54
de-factoyes i would agree, the stricter and more aggressive the containment the better if it happens to be too strict it can be relieved piece by piece hence in the best case impact of different measures could be distinguished 23:54
de-factoand also what you say about the mass psychology makes sense, fighting for every piece of containment drives people into opposition23:55

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