libera/##covid-19/ Tuesday, 2020-10-27

de-facto	are there any estimates for which part of infected children develops antibodies? is that even possible to predict somehow?	00:04
de-facto	or asked the other way around: are there European countries with spikes that never opened schools?	00:06
de-facto	how certain can be be about the role of schools in all of this?	00:06
LjL	i don't know :(	00:07
LjL	%papers children antibodies	00:07
Brainstorm	LjL, 35 papers: Prior infection by seasonal coronaviruses does not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in children by isabelle sermet et al, published on 2020-06-30 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.29.20142596 [... want %more?]	00:07
LjL	%more	00:07
Brainstorm	LjL, [...] Ludwig-Kraus, Frank Bernhard Kraus, Karin H. Greiser, Rafael Mikolajczyk Aims Single measurements of higher levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor I (sTNF-R1) have been shown to be associated with increased risk of mortality. However, up to date, little is known about the underlying temporal dynamics of sTNF-R1 concentrations and their relation [...] → https://paste.ee/p/mCw4m	00:07
Brainstorm	LjL, [...] Serology in Children with Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (MIS-C) associated with COVID-19 by Christina A. Rostad et al, published on 2020-07-11 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.07.10.20150755 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/HnZ5o	00:07
LjL	i know i've read things about children but right now i can't remember a thing	00:08
de-facto	all the studies in schools that i have seen were done with seroprevalence, assuming each infection would result in antibodies, but maybe some significant part of the children fight it off with another immune reaction not necessarily developing antibodies? (thats complete speculation and may be wrong)	00:10
LjL	de-facto, they should do a seroprevalence survey in Vo', if they already haven't... of the entire population... since they originally PCR'd the entire population (or close enough)	00:10
LjL	the original study included some comments about children	00:11
LjL	but none of it was about serology, we didn't have antibody tests yet	00:11
LjL	but anyway they should go back to people who are known to have had it, and give them antibody tests	00:11
LjL	but obviously right now we're scrambling to keep up with patients. again.	00:11
LjL	so no time to do these surveys. all this stuff should have been gotten ready during the summer	00:12
de-facto	i am just asking myself what exactly we are doing wrong currently that leads to such a crazy fast exponential raise	00:12
LjL	instead "hey it has gone away, let's all party"	00:12
LjL	de-facto, it's hard to tell because several factors get changed at (nearly) the same time	00:12
LjL	de-facto, for example, Italy opened school and had elections, at the same time	00:12
de-facto	yeah exacty	00:12
LjL	was it the schools? was it the elections?	00:12
LjL	de-facto, i'm a terrible programmer but as someone who is half a programmer, i know that you should change one variable at a time if you want to have a chance of your debugging finding the issue	00:13
de-facto	its hard to distinguish, but since we obviously have to change something it would be good to know more about contributions originating from separately target-able parts of containment such as schools etc	00:14
de-facto	yeah good analogy, i think its accurate	00:14
de-facto	unfortunately we dont have a version control system for containment	00:15
LjL	well if we did i'd definitely want to revert to at least 1/1/2020 ;(	00:15
LjL	or maybe just keep in the 90s please	00:15
de-facto	also in Israel, what lead to their big spike? surely it was not the weather	00:15
LjL	well about the weather...	00:16
LjL	i don't remember if it was you or who else saying yesterday... probably DocScrutinizer05 maybe? saying, in spring and summer things will get better, we won't stay this way until 2022	00:16
LjL	but	00:16
LjL	Arizona had its spike in the middle of its (presumably pretty hot?) summer	00:16
LjL	and then i'm told droplets are most likely to fall to the ground quickly if there is high humidity	00:17
de-facto	yeah it was DocS	00:17
LjL	so certain types of hot weather may make things worse for all i know	00:17
de-facto	still it does not exclude seasonal effects, both are not mutually exclusive	00:17
LjL	no it doesn't but they could be very complex seasonal effects	00:17
de-facto	possibly also that yeah	00:17
LjL	involving temperature and humidity in complex ways	00:17
LjL	and behavior	00:17
de-facto	and peoples behaviour	00:17
de-facto	yep	00:17
LjL	"seasonal effects" also cause people to open windows, use A/C, or conversely close everything and use heating	00:18
LjL	and that may have effects too	00:18
LjL	so even if you look just at weather, you still have too many variables, too many confounding factors	00:18
LjL	ugh	00:18
de-facto	so Israels second peak started ~27th Aug, then peaked at ~27 Sept and now is down again	00:19
LjL	de-facto, i believe their schools opened very early, as in, early August	00:20
LjL	very early for my standards at least	00:20
de-facto	first raise was begin of July or such but plateaued then	00:21
de-facto	but their annual average temp is Jun 28, Jul 30, Aug 30, Sept 30, Oct 26, Nov 17	00:22
de-facto	so they peaked in the summer at 30 °C	00:23
de-facto	so either weather has a reverse role or it was some other cause there	00:23
de-facto	like for example opening things (maybe also schools?)	00:24
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +1476 cases (now 220213) since 34 minutes ago — US: +5524 cases (now 9.0 million), +34 deaths (now 230990) since 35 minutes ago	00:24
de-facto	maybe opening schools is not so harmfull in low prevalence situations, but as soon as prevalence goes above a certain threshold (relative to the group size of classes) schools may serve as multiplicator?	00:25
de-facto	it does not necessarily have to be a linear effect, it most likely is non-linear	00:25
de-facto	again i dont know that	00:26
LjL	de-facto, if i had a minimum of motivation... i'd set temperatures aside for a moment, and try to correlate things with humidity	00:26
LjL	NOAA has longish-term weather data for like every airport in the world somewhere	00:26
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: we can't calculate what next june will look like, but we have an example that ran a pretty comprehensive simulation factoring in _all_ variables: real life. When we see basically same development in basically all european countries then odds are the trigger is time of year and it will somewhat repeat next year, unless we changed some parameters so drastically that it gets even worse than last year (I don't see the latter)	00:27
de-facto	yes that would make sense to look at that	00:27
LjL	de-facto, my very personal opinion is still that children are not huge drivers, but schools can still be huge drivers... and that is compatible with your idea that it may happen in combination with prevalence already rising: if, already, too many people are using public transport, add schools, and it become just many enough for many superspreading events	00:27
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, but the time of the year had completely different effects in places like Arizona and Israel... and i don't know about Arizona but Israel is a mediterranean country like mine, and i suspect it's pretty darned hot	00:28
de-facto	there definitely are some threshold effects at work, by looking at the curves, one EU country after the other took off with prevalence	00:28
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, so in my opinion it's also possible Europe tapered off simply because many countries did successful lockdowns	00:28
LjL	then, in time, it got worse again	00:29
de-facto	maybe its like DocScrutinizer05 said and the common denominator may be the weather	00:29
LjL	i'm saying it's possible, not that it is the ultimate truth, ftr	00:29
de-facto	but also maybe it could possibly be contributions from things we may be able to control	00:29
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: but there are no 100% Italians living and acting like they do, in Israel	00:29
de-facto	such as for example schools, events, party locations, etc	00:29
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, but also everyone changed the ways they lived and acted	00:29
LjL	and will probably change them again	00:29
LjL	in ways that are not so easy to predict	00:30
de-facto	it would be crucial to know more about how all this works together	00:30
de-facto	and how to preak the amplification feedback loops	00:30
de-facto	*break	00:30
LjL	de-facto, well i think those are contributions but now that "events" and "parties" are verboten in italy... it's way too late for just that to help	00:30
LjL	so we go back to governments thinking meek measures can work, when it's too late	00:30
LjL	worst case we're going to keep doing lockdowns (economic damage) then everyone thinks it's over (lack of enough care) followed by huge surges (pain and death) and repeat the process until we have enough vaccines	00:31
LjL	well, i shouldn't say "worst case" since reality always proves it can be worse than what i think :\	00:31
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: still, there's no reason whatsoever to assume nextg June will be worse than last June, given we manage to bring down incidences next May to the same level we had last May	00:32
de-facto	i just think if we find out later that main reproduction originated from something that we easily could have controlled it would be embarrassing not to have asked the crucial questions at time. If its weather, fine we will have to deal with it, but if its something like schools we should know	00:33
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, well i doubt we will manage it as long as our government(s) keep insisting that a full lockdown is out of the question	00:33
LjL	since i happen to think a full lockdown is the only thing that could still work at this point	00:34
DocScrutinizer05	the problem is to bring down incidences again during the winter so next spring and summer will be _better_ than last	00:34
LjL	de-facto, sure you're right, but i just have no idea how to isolate a factor from the others. you're the one who seems to understand statistics, go ahead and figure it out :P	00:34
DocScrutinizer05	((lockdown) 100% agree	00:35
de-facto	i think the plan already was like lockdown then open one thing after the other to distinguish, but that was at such low prevalence that it might not be comparable anymore	00:36
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, well, our PM initially kept saying there would be no second lockdown; now he's been saying "we have to avoid a second lockdown"; so maybe he was now prepared to have one, but in the meanwhile, all these violent riots are starting about just the semi-lockdown we have now, so i'm afraid if the government goes for a full lockdown, all hell will break loose	00:36
de-facto	to be honest i dont really know a way other than trying it out	00:36
de-facto	i just have the vague feeling there is something we possibly might overlook that amplifies to such a huge spike	00:37
LjL	de-facto, well, assuming each country did things a bit differently and at different times, i think you could "isolate the variables" by basically treating all countries as a system of equations. if you have enough countries compared to the variables you need to figure out, i understand logically that you should be able to do that. how to do that in practice i have no idea. but then also, you have the usual confounding stuff like "how is each country	00:37
LjL	measuring cases" etc	00:37
de-facto	something all those countries have in common that experience that threshold effect	00:37
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: yes, it's difficult times. And what we need least are idiots thinking they could ignore the virus or chase it away with shouting and signs	00:38
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1020 cases (now 9.0 million), +26 deaths (now 231016) since 20 minutes ago	00:39
de-facto	yeah but then at first a very accurate model for each country would have to be made reflecting the situation as well as possible (somehow verifiable?) and then such a comparison could possibly be made, yet since so many things were done chaotically and not in sane order with delays in between it may be quite difficult still	00:39
de-facto	indeed diversity of cultures may be an advantage here in finding the common denominator for amplification	00:41
DocScrutinizer05	My suggestion about evaluating measures was to do different measures in each city. One city with schools re-opened, one with no more mandatory home office, one with concerts and one with football games or whatever. You get the idea. But for a number of reasons this isn't really feasible it seems	00:41
de-facto	yeah that would have made a lot of sense (and still does) if documented accurately so there will be high quality data after a while	00:42
de-facto	but then every city wants to be "better" than the others, how to make them stick to such protocols?	00:42
ryouma	the offloop for az fl tx is radically different between regular and alternative data sources	00:44
ryouma	(for example in one data source, the summer peaks of fl and tx are higher than az. in the other, fl is the same as az except shifted. and the summer peak of tx is lower than az.)	00:45
ryouma	http://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=Arizona;Florida;Texas&byPopulation=yes&testsRate=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&miscPeriod=7&miscSource=Deaths&legacy=no	00:45
ryouma	http://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=Florida;Texas;Arizona&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff	00:46
LjL	eh, i don't see it	00:46
LjL	ryouma, you realize colors change randomly each time, right?	00:46
LjL	the numbers are different, that's true	00:47
de-facto	ryouma, check "by population" on both	00:47
LjL	but overall, i see the same shapes	00:47
LjL	mainly i see a difference in the total case number for Texas	00:48
LjL	862k v 892k	00:48
ryouma	the shapes are the same	00:48
LjL	well they also cross each other in the same ways for me	00:49
LjL	the scale is different, for some reason: max 900k vs 1m	00:49
LjL	so unless you check "by population", they look different because of the different scale	00:49
ryouma	in one the summer peak is lowest in tx and az and fl are about hte same. in the other, fl is worse than tx which is worse than az.	00:49
LjL	are you talking with "by population" selected, or not? because WITHOUT it, arizona is much lower than either texas or florida, all along (in both sources)	00:51
ryouma	i had by population unchecked for one of them. now the patterns are the same. az and fl about hte same and bad. tx lower. all three bunching up in both data sources at the right but idk what to do to zoom.	00:51
ryouma	i have tx the lowest at the summer peak for both	00:51
de-facto	click and scroll	00:52
de-facto	click and pan	00:52
de-facto	double click to reset	00:52
LjL	with "by population" selected, the graphs look very similar to me, except that legacy starts sooner (2 jan vs 23 jan) so it's more compressed horizontally	00:52
de-facto	correction: click and hold to pan	00:52
LjL	as to zooming i could never get it right, it might be harder since i use a touchpad. but it helps to use "left trim" and "right trim" to zoom horizontally by dates	00:53
ryouma	az worst fl best on both but that could be moving average effect	00:53
ryouma	i panned then scroll wheel	00:53
de-facto	btw hovering over the axis and scrolling only would zoom for that axis, neat :)	00:54
de-facto	same for click and hold, panning only one axis	00:55
de-facto	it only has to be activated once for each graph by a single click into it	00:56
DocScrutinizer05	there are two facts that I consider obvious but alas are mostly missing at least in German political debate: 1) higher total number of incidences per day also drives a higher R_eff, at least when reaching tripping points like when traceback and quarantine orders by health offices isn't possible anymore for each single incidence 2) literally any measure taken will take effect at least 14 days later the earliest. For ECU counts it's	00:56
DocScrutinizer05	rather 4 weeks or more	00:56
de-facto	yes there are many threshold effects, also that of prevalence "soaking" a population of susceptible to be fully saturated or resources such as tracing or group sizes or other characteristic thresholds of common everyday life	01:00
de-facto	the question indeed is how to determine which of those are the "main pathways" for amplification in order to interrupt reproduction as efficiently as possible	01:01
de-facto	and that has to be distinguishable by temporal separation somehow ideally in a plateau "artificial equilibrium" situation	01:02
de-facto	not sure if it even could be done in such a steep exponential gain phase like we experience it right now	01:03
de-facto	i think we need to hammer it down with a lockdown then reopen VERY carefully one by one	01:03
de-facto	indeed maybe in parallel e.g. allow one city to open schools, another to open gyms, allow a third to reopen bars and have standardized studies accompany the trajectories	01:04
de-facto	preferable comparable cities in demographics and size, culture etc	01:04
de-facto	unfortunately right now we are far from any equilibrium state	01:05
de-facto	its pretty clear that 1) current measures dont work => need to change 2) we dont know the exact origin of the majority of incidence => need to prevent all of potential sources 3) only after long time we will see if measures were enough to contain it => much stricter containment than estimated required is necessary 4) if there is an equilibrium state optimize containment => try to "wiggle" on the containment measures by lifting separable	01:12
de-facto	features and distinguish their impact by time, possibly in parallel in compartmentalized comparable scenarios	01:12
DocScrutinizer05	thereis no equilibrum state, that's the whole point. pandemic dynamics are a runaway situation in both directions	01:13
de-facto	well in the summer it was long time like dancing around R ~ 1	01:13
de-facto	what i mean is that there may be many factors contributing to amplification, so all of them have to be "switched off" (by a lockdown until at least R~1) and only then "switching on" one after the other may show their individual effects	01:15
de-facto	at that prevalence level	01:15
de-facto	but then they also could play hand in hand	01:15
DocScrutinizer05	nah, actually in Germany we reached a minimum of R_eff at one point then re-opened one by one situations and R_eff was basically all the time on its way up - then it reached 1.4 and exponential frowth accelerated accordingly all the time	01:15
DocScrutinizer05	growth*	01:16
de-facto	like one factor only having impact in combination with another enabled too, so there would have to be smart concepts about testing scenarios	01:16
DocScrutinizer05	yeah, quite possible	01:17
DocScrutinizer05	with locally differentiated randomized measures steady for a 4 weeks we could learn nevertheless	01:17
de-facto	ok you are correct there never really was a plateau probably because of the potential dynamic in the reproduction (almost everyone is susceptible)	01:18
DocScrutinizer05	but now we first need a new lockdown unless next 3 days show a srastic change in trends	01:18
de-facto	yes unfortunately, i agree we need to hit it with a hammer, dancing time is over, the tiger won for now	01:19
de-facto	i hope they will come to the same conclusion when meeting with Merkel	01:20
de-facto	the ministers i mean	01:20
de-facto	just remember everyone was shocked when Merkel said 19200 daily at Xmas, well now we may hit that next week	01:22
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1463 cases (now 9.0 million), +17 deaths (now 231033) since 50 minutes ago — Netherlands: +17 deaths (now 7090) since 11 hours ago — Canada: +6 deaths (now 9985) since an hour ago	01:24
de-facto	that was just end of September	01:25
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: After Victoria's long and difficult coronavirus lockdown, it's now the envy of the world → https://is.gd/8lcAGc	01:29
DocScrutinizer05	((remember)) sure, been "laughing" at that since weejs	01:32
DocScrutinizer05	weeks*	01:33
ryouma	do politicians need to be told the story of the inventor of chess? (exponentials)	01:35
DocScrutinizer05	ready (3rd of Sep) steady, (5th of Oct) GO	01:38
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Victoria, Australia records another day of no new coronavirus cases and no deaths → https://is.gd/9IwZ1A	01:38
LjL	well so a lockdown, no more cases. here's one variable that seems to get more definite the more we observe it	01:39
LjL	i wonder if it could suggest a course of action!	01:40
DocScrutinizer05	actually (15th of July) ready (3rd of Sep) steady, (5th of Oct) GO	01:40
DocScrutinizer05	IOW politicians _ought_ to have reverted some end-of-measure around 2020-08-15 or the week after	01:42
DocScrutinizer05	2020-05-15*	01:42
DocScrutinizer05	damn. I give up. 2020-07-15	01:43
LjL	i no longer know what you're saying, but i give up too, i need alcohol instead	01:43
DocScrutinizer05	I say german politicians lost track of pandemia management around mid of july when it became obvious we were going R_eff>1	01:44
LjL	in italy there was no way they'd keep a lockdown going during the summer	01:45
LjL	they wanted some money from tourism and they wanted people to have holidays and not explode	01:45
DocScrutinizer05	no need for keeping a lockdown. Just don't revert _all_ measures without checking the effects	01:50
LjL	well technically they didn't revert all measures here...	01:52
LjL	let me see if i remember	01:52
LjL	public transport could never run with full amount of passengers (although there's nobody enforcing that), and you were always supposed to wear a mask there (although lately there has been no one enforcing that, either)	01:52
LjL	if i'm not too mistaken, masks were always kept mandatory in stores shops etc	01:53
DocScrutinizer05	when R_eff turns >1 you hotto ponder >>what the heck did we do last 2 weeks, maybe some of that wasn't a bright idea<<	01:53
LjL	there were limitations on the number of spectators at sporting events	01:53
LjL	and that's probably about it	01:53
DocScrutinizer05	gotta*	01:53
LjL	but maybe these measures are why Italy lagged a bit and other countries jumped up first?	01:53
LjL	i haven't really followed other countries' measures (or lack thereof) so much, everything overlaps a bit in my memory now	01:54
DocScrutinizer05	yeah, keeping an accurate history is one of the most tedious and difficult tasks	01:58
DocScrutinizer05	https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2895-3	02:02
DocScrutinizer05	>>Spike mutation D614G alters SARS-CoV-2 fitness<< https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320861345051365376 _maybe_	02:03
Brainstorm	New from Virology.ws: TWiV 675: Forget what you’ve herd about immunity: Daniel Griffin provides a clinical report on COVID-19, then we discuss Bill Foege’s letter to CDC director Robert Redfield, the false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19, secret blueprints for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trials released, and neuropilin-1 as a possible entry protein [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/kzML5J	02:14
de-facto	%title https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.28.317685 DocScrutinizer05, was also addresses in one of Drostens Podcasts	02:22
Brainstorm	de-facto: From doi.org: SARS-CoV-2 D614G Variant Exhibits Enhanced Replication ex vivo and Earlier Transmission in vivo \| bioRxiv	02:22
de-facto	https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=gt-S_614	02:24
de-facto	hmm those papers look quite similar, interesting	02:28
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: yep, that's how we came to talk about it. user Petschge gave it to me as a follow-up info to me mentioning this Drosten podcast and my conclusions. Also %title https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2930820-5	02:28
DocScrutinizer05	Tracking Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike: Evidence that D614G Increases Infectivity of the COVID- 19 Virus	02:29
DocScrutinizer05	%title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1 even	02:31
Brainstorm	DocScrutinizer05: From www.biorxiv.org: Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2 \| bioRxiv	02:31
de-facto	but afaik D614G is long time around already even the first 19a clade sequenced in Germany was a D614G	02:31
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Gatherings in private homes restricted, after B.C. announces record high 817 new cases over the weekend → https://is.gd/J1QIqr	02:31
de-facto	that was on 2020-01-28	02:32
DocScrutinizer05	my naive conclusion was a reduced serial time of 2 instead 4 times	02:32
DocScrutinizer05	see the link I posted 2 above, it has a nice diagram of distribution G/D over time	02:33
de-facto	oh indeed the cell one	02:33
DocScrutinizer05	there's nothing new in all this, just confirmed stuff already expected or anticipated for quite a while	02:34
de-facto	so is it excluded that the new spike is due to a new unknown similar mutation?	02:34
de-facto	if that was the case, shouldnt we know by now?	02:34
DocScrutinizer05	yes, pretty much excluded	02:35
DocScrutinizer05	no hint or clue of any mutation causing any of the recent changes in situation, neither the 614G nor a new one	02:37
DocScrutinizer05	virus mutates all the time, but this particular one surprisingly low rate compared to other similar type of virus, and no relevant mutation seen so far, neither for a drastic change in speed of spread nor in disease symptoms	02:40
de-facto	i just wonder because of that "threshold like" effect, that could be a hint to such a mutation (well not D614G itself but something alike), yet again i would assume they constantly collect sequences and should be able to catch that, right?	02:41
de-facto	do they have constant screening on the newest sequences for such mutations running (i.e. in an automated way)?	02:42
de-facto	(tbh i have no idea)	02:43
de-facto	i would assume it would make sense to do such a thing, but i also have to admit i dont know if they actually do that	02:44
DocScrutinizer05	right, that would've been noticed	02:45
DocScrutinizer05	yes, afaik they do regular periodic sequencing	02:45
DocScrutinizer05	and did from beginning, to track mutations	02:46
DocScrutinizer05	I even think it's mainly Drosten's team doing that	02:47
de-facto	yes the sequencing is done of course (see the nextstrain link)	02:50
de-facto	i mean the monitoring worldwide when the sequences become available in digital form	02:51
de-facto	%title https://nextstrain.org/ncov/europe?c=gt-S_614&dmin=2020-06-01 1273 other possible positions to look at in the s-protein	02:54
Brainstorm	de-facto: From nextstrain.org: auspice	02:54
DocScrutinizer05	you lost me. They do worldwide sequencing from RNA to binary and then make those binaries available to scientific community and compare them for mutations. No?	02:55
DocScrutinizer05	I'd call that monitoring	02:55
de-facto	yes thats exactly the content of that link nextstrain	02:57
de-facto	the sequences obtained worldwide from SARS-CoV-2	02:57
de-facto	so the question would be: is there an automated (constant) screening on that dataset that would have found D614G if it was not already known by now and also similar other variants	02:59
de-facto	i assume the answer should be yes, but i would like to be sure	03:02
de-facto	i mean it would be a hell of a lost paper if that dataset would not constantly be screened for such mutations	03:03
de-facto	and there are quite some mutations going on with the s-protein, about ~23 per year	03:06
DocScrutinizer05	a third time: I think they do this constantly on a regular schedule, maybe weejly	03:09
DocScrutinizer05	I said >>no relevant mutation<<	03:10
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Dr Fauci says the US is still in the first wave of Covid (10027 votes) \| https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/anthony-fauci-cdc-covid19-pandemic-first-wave-case-numbers-b1349492.html \| https://redd.it/jilfni	03:37
DocScrutinizer05	at very least you see in nextstrain that they have a few hundred data points per week during the last few weeks, no?	03:43
Brainstorm	New from BMJ Open: Hospitalised COVID-19 patients of the Mount Sinai Health System: a retrospective observational study using the electronic medical records: Objective To assess association of clinical features on COVID-19 patient outcomes. Design Retrospective observational study using electronic medical record data. Setting Five member hospitals from [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/GVHvbl	03:43
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Wave of new Covid-19 cases crashes across US and Europe as winter looms → https://is.gd/4xFRJU	04:27
metreo	.cases Ireland	04:46
Brainstorm	metreo: In Ireland, there have been 58067 confirmed cases (1.2% of the population) and 1885 deaths (3.2% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 1.5 million tests were performed (3.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 7.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Ireland for time series data.	04:46
metreo	.cases Finland	04:47
Brainstorm	metreo: In Finland, there have been 14970 confirmed cases (0.3% of the population) and 355 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 17 hours ago. 1.4 million tests were performed (1.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data.	04:47
metreo	.cases Scotland	04:47
Brainstorm	metreo: In Scotland, United Kingdom, there have been 56752 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 2700 deaths (4.8% of cases) as of 22 hours ago. 31114 tests were performed (182.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Scotland for time series data.	04:47
metreo	.cases Belgium	04:47
Brainstorm	metreo: In Belgium, there have been 321031 confirmed cases (2.8% of the population) and 10810 deaths (3.4% of cases) as of 22 hours ago. 4.6 million tests were performed (7.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Belgium for time series data.	04:47
Brainstorm	New from EurekAlert!: Swiss fatalism protects against negative feelings in the pandemic: Trust or disappointment in government crisis management is an important factor for the general mood, shows a study by the University of Zurich based on surveys in Israel and Switzerland. At the end of April, Israelis were twice as disappointed with their government [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/2Z86GS	05:30
IndoAnon	ay LMAO LjL >Italians have been advised against trips to other European countries because of surging SARS2 cases	05:38
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid Antibodies 'Fall Rapidly After Infection' → https://is.gd/dZhqT9	05:38
LjL	IndoAnon: what's funny? Many of our neighbors are having many more cases than us (especially France) but even aside from that there's been a plea to avoid even leaving your town if at all possible. They just don't want to make it mandatory for now, like last time	05:40
IndoAnon	Because your country doesn't fell in the same pothole(yet) like iran	05:41
IndoAnon	If the majority of the people make conscious decision, then that's good. No more uncontrollable spread.	05:42
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +7476 cases (now 1.2 million) since 9 hours ago — US: +2749 cases (now 9.0 million), +12 deaths (now 231045) since 4 hours ago — Netherlands: +525 cases (now 302122), +7 deaths (now 7097) since 4 hours ago — Canada: +355 cases (now 220568), +7 deaths (now 9992) since 4 hours ago	06:06
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Dr. Fauci says: ‘If people are not wearing masks, then maybe we should be mandating,’ as new U.S. COVID-19 cases hit 85,000 → https://is.gd/CUkNvM	06:23
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +14568 cases (now 1.2 million), +16 deaths (now 35034) since an hour ago — Lombardy, Italy: +3570 cases (now 157933), +17 deaths (now 17252) since a day ago — Netherlands: +2591 cases (now 304713), +6 deaths (now 7103) since 46 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +1524 cases (now 896214) since 12 hours ago	06:51
Brainstorm	New preprint: Is increased mortality by multiple exposures to COVID-19 an overseen factor when aiming for herd immunity? by Kristina Barbara Helle et al, published on 2020-10-26 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.22.20217638 [... want %more?]	07:16
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: How the pandemic popularised DIY skin and hair care → https://is.gd/FqeABq	07:16
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +12687 cases (now 333718), +89 deaths (now 10899) since a day ago	08:21
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: Protests in Italy over new pandemic crackdown turn violent → https://is.gd/hheCQj	08:37
Haley[m]	%cases world	08:48
Brainstorm	Haley[m]: In World, there have been 44.0 million confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 1.2 million deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 38 minutes ago. 789.5 million tests were performed (5.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data.	08:48
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Vaping epidemic puts adolescents at risk for potentially fatal lung disease: Adolescent use of e-cigarettes and vaping products is at epidemic proportions, yet the adverse health effects are understudied, with almost no data on younger patients. The problem is sizable as children start vaping at a younger and younger age. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ewYMDQ	09:13
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: Can I celebrate Halloween during the pandemic? → https://is.gd/Ah4Oak	09:22
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: At the top of her field, a Covid-19 researcher fights back against a different kind of virus: sexism and power imbalances in science: During the Covid-19 pandemic, virologist and immunologist Akiko Iwasaki has seen her influence soar. And for decades, she has tirelessly fought against sexism, power imbalance, and toxic behavior in academia. → https://is.gd/vYcbUj	09:40
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Ultrasounds show impact of COVID-19 on the heart: Cardiac ultrasounds (also known as echocardiograms) are providing a view of the heart and the impact of the COVID-19 virus on patients. A new study by researchers at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai identifies different types of cardiac structural damage experienced by [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/PtCHbB	09:49
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Air pollution linked with 15 per cent COVID-19 deaths worldwide: Study → https://is.gd/AOnybz	09:58
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Covid-19 cases continue to mount around the country: NBC's Gabe Gutierrez reports on the growing number of Covid-19 cases in South Dakota and the difficulty the state is having in its attempts to deal with it. → https://is.gd/Up4ubV	10:33
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: RECENTI SVILUPPI DELLA PANDEMIA COVID-19 NEL MONDO (NOTA DELLA BANCA D'ITALIA) → https://is.gd/pewOg9	10:42
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Long-term immunity in doubt as UK study finds COVID-19 antibodies fall rapidly → https://is.gd/M6VMmU	10:51
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Russia tightens virus restrictions as cases spike: Russia on Tuesday tightened anti-coronavirus restrictions including mask-wearing in public spaces after registering a record daily spike in virus deaths. → https://is.gd/JKZjOB	11:01
metreo	.cases russia	11:06
Brainstorm	metreo: In Russia, there have been 1.5 million confirmed cases (1.1% of the population) and 26589 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 16 minutes ago. 58.2 million tests were performed (2.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Russia for time series data.	11:06
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): Global COVID Cases For 27OCT20: Summary As Of: 27OCT20 @ 09:31 GMT Countries 215 + 2 Cases 43,825,904 Deaths 1,165,300 Recovered 32,207,594 Active Cases 10,453,010 w/Active cases w/No Active cases w/All cases rcvrd Cntry’s 206 2 7 Cases 43,825,904 84 113 Deaths 1,165,300 2 0 Rcvrd 32,207,594 82 113 Daily totals of new: cases, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/oGg1ie	11:10
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: La Cina è tornata alla normalità, gli Stati Uniti e l’Europa no. Ecco come ci è riuscita → https://is.gd/2mXvBe	11:19
Brainstorm	New from BMJ: Helen Salisbury: Postponing death: A newspaper columnist recently suggested on social media that responding to the pandemic with a lockdown does not prevent deaths but merely postpones them. Unsurprisingly, there was pushback. Until... → https://is.gd/yBE0Ul	11:29
Brainstorm	New from BMJ: National data on suicide must include ethnicity: The murder of George Floyd and the higher death rates from covid-19 in black and Asian groups in the UK have focused attention on the varying determinants of physical and mental health. Suicide... → https://is.gd/2tkwHL	11:38
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Lithuania to ban spectators in professional sports as coronavirus cases rise \| 27OCT20 → https://is.gd/QoFfZo	11:47
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): nCoV: ‘We’re in Hell’: Russia’s Second Wave of Covid-19 Is Catching the Regions Off Guard \| 27OCT20 → https://is.gd/FBybnx	11:55
Brainstorm	New from Scientific American: Health: How Indigenous Communities in Canada Organized an Exemplary COVID Public Health Response → https://is.gd/4AlBpu	12:05
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Pfizer's late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial is near complete enrollment with 42,000 volunteers → https://is.gd/azEHkC	12:14
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +5949 cases (now 127042), +1 deaths (now 2146) since a day ago	12:53
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Spook Your Friends and Neighbors: Having Fun During Coronavirus → https://is.gd/v899VK	12:59
cmpx[m]	<Brainstorm "Updates for US: +9878 cases (now"> So there's the million cases in 10 days I was referring to, October 16 - 26 the US jumped from 8 to 9 million 😢	13:00
cmpx[m]	I wonder why JHU data is 300k cases behind	13:05
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +884 cases (now 9.0 million), +9 deaths (now 231054) since 7 hours ago	13:08
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Paper suggesting vitamin D might protect against COVID-19 earns an expression of concern (82 votes) \| https://retractionwatch.com/2020/10/26/paper-suggesting-vitamin-d-might-protect-against-covid-19-earns-an-expression-of-concern/#more-120747 \| https://redd.it/jiy2s9	13:11
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Coronavirus: France faces lockdown amid surging cases → https://is.gd/JMMhgd	13:18
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: 3M’s profit fell as expenses grew and demand for products serving industries affected by the pandemic continued to decline → https://is.gd/EgJlvt	13:46
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Countries are trying a new way to get people who have been exposed to the coronavirus to quarantine, by asking them to do it for shorter periods → https://is.gd/GRkaAb	13:55
Brainstorm	New from NIH Director's blog: Protein Mapping Study Reveals Valuable Clues for COVID-19 Drug Development: One way to fight COVID-19 is with drugs that directly target SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes the disease. That’s the strategy employed by remdesivir, the only antiviral drug currently authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/fxtgwF	14:04
Brainstorm	New from In The Pipeline: More Antibody Data: Unfortunately, we’re getting a dose these days of “That’s why you run clinical trials”. Word came Monday evening (Peter Loftus in the WSJ, and a Lilly statement) that the ACTIV-3 trial being run by the NIH has shown lack of efficacy for the combination of the Eli Lilly/AbCellera anti-coronavirus [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/BfRyer	14:22
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus antibodies decline after infection, study finds, raising questions about herd immunity → https://is.gd/6m0Rg3	14:32
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Eli Lilly still confident in benefits of Covid antibody treatment despite end to hospital study → https://is.gd/PuedPR	14:42
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: No news on Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine is good news — and bad news: Pfizer revealed that researchers have not yet conducted an analysis of the efficacy of the vaccine it is developing against Covid-19. The announcement is both good news and bad news. → https://is.gd/nMYW0e	14:51
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +7176 cases (now 311889), +47 deaths (now 7142) since 8 hours ago — US: +2914 cases (now 9.0 million), +120 deaths (now 231174) since an hour ago — Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 2147) since 2 hours ago	14:53
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Sewage surveillance: How scientists track and identify diseases like COVID-19 before they spread: The COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in wastewater surveillance, where sewage systems are monitored for the presence of viruses, bacteria and other pathogens. Non-infective fragments of the virus's genetic material have [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/O4PC3X	15:00
drytrumpet	anybody an idea how far china is with vaccination?	15:17
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Death rates among people with severe COVID-19 drop by a half in England: Death rates from people with severe COVID-19 in hospital have dropped to around a half of the rate at the peak of the pandemic, new research has revealed. → https://is.gd/BYWfGA	15:18
metreo	drytrumpet, probably about the same as everyone else, so like phase 3 with promising candidates emerging	15:24
metreo	I lost track of the Russian vaccine, I think it had adverse effects in the end	15:25
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: CDC Warns of Listeria Outbreak: The outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes has been reported in three states. All 10 infected people were hospitalized and one death was reported in Florida. → https://is.gd/KpvmCR	15:27
metreo	faster probably isn't better when it comes down to it	15:28
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1531 cases (now 9.0 million), +19 deaths (now 231193) since an hour ago	16:09
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Crucial Covid vaccine data expected from Pfizer this week now unlikely to come before U.S. election → https://is.gd/jz3l4h	16:13
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Iran's virus deaths exceed 33,000 with new records: Iran's official novel coronavirus fatalities crossed the 33,000 mark on Tuesday, the health ministry said, as the country set new records in both daily deaths and infection cases. → https://is.gd/IjhRgo	16:22
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1868 cases (now 9.0 million), +20 deaths (now 231213) since 22 minutes ago	16:24
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: Psoriasis Meds Don't Raise Risk of Severe COVID-19: Moderate-to-severe cases of psoriasis are treated with drugs that suppress the immune system. This analysis of the international PsoProtect registry found that more than 90% of psoriasis patients survive infection with the new coronavirus. → https://is.gd/ybc3ZN	16:31
Urchin[emacs]	%cases croatia	16:40
Brainstorm	Urchin[emacs]: In Croatia, there have been 38621 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 470 deaths (1.2% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 457726 tests were performed (8.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data.	16:40
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: [Crosspost AMA in r/AskScience] We are experts here to answer your questions on shortages of laboratory testing supplies for COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. AUA! → https://is.gd/uxaM1I	16:49
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +6455 cases (now 9.0 million), +95 deaths (now 231308) since 52 minutes ago — Canada: +411 cases (now 222004), +19 deaths (now 9996) since an hour ago	17:09
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): Tuesday 27 October Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/C2FWy60	17:16
Brainstorm	Updates for Italy: +21989 cases (now 564778), +221 deaths (now 37700) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +21361 cases (now 917575) since 10 hours ago	17:39
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): States will need billions to distribute the Covid vaccine as federal funding falls short → https://is.gd/ewne8k	17:53
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Good mental health and better sleep for the physically active: In the middle of the pandemic this spring, researchers at NTNU conducted a survey among members of Kondis, a Norwegian fitness training organization. → https://is.gd/CMWBWV	18:02
metreo	.cases Canada	18:06
Brainstorm	metreo: In Canada, there have been 222004 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 9996 deaths (4.5% of cases) as of an hour ago. 9.7 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 5.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data.	18:06
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: COVID’s cognitive costs? Some patients’ brains may age 10 years → https://is.gd/Y80J94	18:11
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: hmmm https://i.imgur.com/CahUygY.png	18:15
de-facto	interesting, but im not sure if that is already a trend (hopefully), because otherwise we might end up 16k this Thursday and 20k next Thursday	18:20
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Europe's daily deaths rise by nearly 40% compared with last week - WHO → https://is.gd/razNaS	18:20
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: yeah, just saying I seen that, let's wait if it solidifies or not	18:21
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: 3M is making more N95 masks than ever as global Covid cases rise, CEO says: "We are bringing capacity on. We are making more N95 respirators than ever, and we'll continue to add some capacity as we go into the end of the year, into next year," 3M CEO Mike Roman told CNBC. → https://is.gd/Ey3zEC	18:30
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: People with Down syndrome face higher risk of severe COVID-19: (HealthDay)—When adults with Down syndrome contract COVID-19, their risk of dying is much higher than the norm, a large, new study finds. → https://is.gd/aZuweg	18:39
Brainstorm	New from Ars Technica: Science: Trump admin’s pandemic surrender draws impassioned response from WHO → https://is.gd/JfTTP5	18:48
Brainstorm	Updates for Spain: +18418 cases (now 1.2 million), +267 deaths (now 35298) since 21 hours ago — US: +3914 cases (now 9.0 million), +36 deaths (now 231344) since an hour ago — Arizona, US: +1158 cases (now 240122), +16 deaths (now 5891) since 21 hours ago	18:54
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: >>20k next Thursday<< that's even optimistic, might be 25 as well	18:56
de-facto	yes indeed	18:57
DocScrutinizer05	today's Drosten and today's NANO is both interesting	18:58
DocScrutinizer05	TIL: circuit breaker lockdown	18:59
de-facto	yes we urgently need this	19:00
de-facto	as strict as possible	19:01
DocScrutinizer05	I agree on that. What I don't agree with is our MP Laschet >>the measures taken obviously don't suffice<< Those measures are not in effect long enough to tell if they take effect. And _that_ is the reason we need a circuit breaker now	19:08
DocScrutinizer05	re-post:: there are two facts that I consider obvious but alas are mostly missing at least in German political debate: 1) higher total number of incidences per day also drives a higher R_eff, at least when reaching tripping points like when traceback and quarantine orders by health offices isn't possible anymore for each single incidence 2) literally any measure taken will take effect at least 14 days later the earliest. For ECU	19:11
DocScrutinizer05	counts it's rather 4 weeks or more	19:11
tinwhiskers	they're in place long enough to do most of the economic harm but not long enough to reap the benefits. That has made people shy of taking further such measures. If only they had stuck at it they would now be far better off both economically and in terms of prevalence.	19:11
DocScrutinizer05	yep	19:12
DocScrutinizer05	I suggest everybody (again?) reads https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 https://medium.com/tomas-pueyo/coronavirus-der-hammer-und-der-tanz-abf9015cb2af	19:15
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: Loss of Smell More Common in COVID-19 Than Thought: In fact, about 77% of COVID-19 patients who were directly measured had smell loss, but only 44% said they did, researchers found. → https://is.gd/Loms7P	19:33
de-facto	yeah we need a hell of a hammer, that would prevent most harm	19:37
de-facto	compromises hurt health and economy	19:37
de-facto	strict effective measures shorten the suffering and regain control	19:38
IndoAnon	de-facto: What's needed is optimal strategy, not suboptimal shit we got	19:42
de-facto	its largely out of control currently in all of Europe	19:44
IndoAnon	Now, I know most of parents unable to maintain their kids at home; mainly asking them to study and do workouts	19:44
IndoAnon	Greece is fucked lol... 2-3 months ago, one of anon said that they're lucky enough to be spared... now, they're riding with the rest of mainland EU	19:47
IndoAnon	Every time a region went hard lockdown, I always thought, "Didn't they knew the risk? They could've prevented this."	19:50
de-facto	we need compartmentalization, closed borders, strict travel restrictions with 14 days quarantine, hard lockdowns to hammer it down in every country	19:54
DocScrutinizer05	https://twitter.com/iingwen/status/1240555498581012480 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e	19:55
IndoAnon	i don't think 14 days is enough	19:58
IndoAnon	Symptom manifestation doesn't occur after weeks for pre-symptomatic	19:59
DocScrutinizer05	closed borders are (mostly) useless when situation is same on both sides of border. better is a general mobility restriction no matter if crossing a border or not. But even that is not the key, the key is reducing number of physical contacts of everybody	19:59
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: Patients With Worst COVID May Be Key Plasma Donors: Plasma trials are continuing, but doctors are unsure how to select COVID-19 survivors who are most likely to have strong antibody responses. → https://is.gd/6nFKf6	20:00
DocScrutinizer05	make a froup of 10 persons and for 3 weeks none of that group may get closer than 10m to anybody outside of that peer group	20:01
DocScrutinizer05	s/f/g/	20:01
de-facto	since all countries are in a different prevalence and timeline, have their separate administrations and measures implemented i think closing borders for travel makes sense	20:06
DocScrutinizer05	closing borders is ineffective and highly problematic. general restrictions to travel cover border crossing travel as well - completely sufficient. Borders don't need special measures	20:14
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +24044 cases (now 9.0 million), +327 deaths (now 231671) since an hour ago — France: +11373 cases (now 1.2 million), +523 deaths (now 35541) since 13 hours ago	20:20
de-facto	whatever it takes to make traveling along prevalence gradients impossible	20:23
de-facto	its no time for party, no time for holidays or traveling just for fun, thats how it all started	20:24
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Not wearing a mask linked to antisocial traits, study finds. Those who don’t comply with Covid-19 containment measures were found to be more callous, hostile and deceitful (10043 votes) \| https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/mask-wearing-anti-social-personality-traits-study-brazil-b1347252.html?amp \| https://redd.it/jj00ct	20:31
DocScrutinizer05	exactly	20:35
DocScrutinizer05	simply 3 weeks DONT MEET PEOPLE	20:36
DocScrutinizer05	well, except your peer group which has to be the same as for every peer in the group	20:36
tinwhiskers	a 2-week mandatory managed quarantine followed by one week of self-isolation after leaving the facility seems like a reasonable period to me.	20:39
LjL	IndoAnon: if 14 days is not enough go tell he politicians and scientists who are wanting to reduce it to 10 days (see France) or less. It's still barely tenable to keep it at 14 days with the way people don't get paid properly when they are self-isolating and they don't get tested quickly	20:40
LjL	So please, sure let's put more restrictions on people if warranted, but let's also have a system that's not utter bollocks or they'll get angry and riot (see: here)	20:41
tinwhiskers	and the managed quarantine really does benefit from being fully-funded so people have less reason to try to avoid it. That cost is significant but can swallowed considering the benefits.	20:41
LjL	It's like from one or the other side, no one has a touch with reality. And I say that while having little touch with reality. Sheesh	20:41
LjL	"Managed quarantine"? As in putting people in a dedicated place? Where do we put them? Set up a huge colony on the moon? We don't have space even for those actively sick!	20:43
tinwhiskers	I'm talking about border quarantine	20:43
tinwhiskers	not internal case-based quarantine	20:43
IndoAnon	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine#Etymology_and_terminology	20:43
tinwhiskers	(regarding what de-facto was saying about travel)	20:44
tinwhiskers	There's no reason managed border quarantine can't scale by population and GDP to be done in the same manner as New Zealand does.	20:45
IndoAnon	If traveling to other region/place is sooo important for you; One should afford the price for doing so	20:46
tinwhiskers	IndoAnon: yes, if you leave then you pay when you return, but if you are already overseas and returning to your home country the country can pay.	20:46
de-facto	IndoAnon, its all about probabilities, if you catch 95% (as example) with 14 days quarantine its sufficient when there still are cases in a country	20:47
tinwhiskers	if you travel to a country you are not a citizen of then yes, you pay.	20:47
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: New York City mayor asks residents to avoid traveling out of state during the holidays: Travelers arriving at New York City-area airports will be encouraged to get tested for Covid-19 immediately, Mayor Bill de Blasio said. → https://is.gd/qxPpsP	20:47
de-facto	if it came down to near zero its another thing though	20:47
tinwhiskers	you actually catch far more than 95% with a 14 day quarantine	20:47
tinwhiskers	but your point still stands	20:48
de-facto	yeah 95% was pulled out of thin air as an example	20:48
IndoAnon	it's all about max-min	20:48
de-facto	its also about resources, there are no Hilberts hotels in reality :D	20:49
IndoAnon	Maximize [health]-minimize interference to [economy]	20:49
de-facto	yes	20:49
de-facto	but its not either OR its an AND relationship, investment needs safety and healthy population happy to participate in economy, so 1) fix the health issue 2) secure its stability with absolute strict measures 3) economy will recover from itself	20:51
IndoAnon	Without correct prophylaxis and working """vaccine"""... Solution to this problem is preventing spreading.	20:53
de-facto	yes and it gets harder with raising prevalence, a lot harder	20:54
de-facto	yet prevalence is raising exponentially with time, so we need to break this trend with a hammer	20:54
IndoAnon	The reason prevalence goes unchecked is because lack of random testing	20:55
IndoAnon	There's tons of loose thread; unbeknownst to people, they're """asymptomatic""" and contagious	20:56
de-facto	yes i still think a small constant part of testing should be dedicated to random representative sampling, e.g. 1% or such	20:56
DocScrutinizer05	tinwhiskers: in which paradise do you live so you hope for closing borders will avoid infections in your country? Is your numbver of local seeders really that low that this makes sense?	20:56
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Health care workers in Michigan criticize Trump's rally amid record Covid cases → https://is.gd/CLpoCW	20:56
tinwhiskers	yes. New Zealand. But the same applies in Australia, Vietname, Thailand, Cambodia, several pacific islands... China.	20:57
IndoAnon	In homogeneous society, without language barrier, i think it's probable.	20:57
DocScrutinizer05	aah ok, yes then I agree	20:57
tinwhiskers	*Vietnam	20:57
tinwhiskers	(something about my keyboard muscle memory always seems to put an e at the end of Vietnam)	20:58
IndoAnon	lol	20:58
IndoAnon	Ironically, the travel """bubble""" eventually will propagate new strains to other countr6	21:01
tinwhiskers	Thailand is now issuing special tourist visas to help the economy but you have to really want to go as the barrier to entry is quite high: negative test 72 hours prior to arrival, COVID-19 testing upon arrival as well as an initial 14-day quarantine (paid for by tourist), health insurance coverage of at least US$100,000, and a service fee of about US$400. You also have to pay for a share on a chartered flight. The total "covid-tax" if	21:05
tinwhiskers	you really want to go there is about US$3000.	21:05
Brainstorm	New from PLOS ONE: Full-dose hepatitis B virus vaccination coverage and associated factors among health care workers in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis: by Nefsu Awoke, Henok Mulgeta, Tsegaye Lolaso, Tiwabwork Tekalign, Serawit Samuel, Mohammed Suleiman Obsa, Robera Olana Introduction The hepatitis B vaccine is the backbone of hepatitis [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cp1cuw	21:05
tinwhiskers	Mind you, you can stay for about 9 months in total so it's not terrible.	21:07
tinwhiskers	err, the $3000 doesn't include the cost of the chartered flight either!	21:08
DocScrutinizer05	>>eventually will propagate new strains<< that would be correct if there were any relevant new strains. There's only one so far and it's 99.9% dominating since end of March, globally	21:15
DocScrutinizer05	tinwhiskers: you read the Taiwan story in https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e ?	21:18
tinwhiskers	you mean how they didn't have any real lockdown?	21:23
tinwhiskers	certainly in some countries (mostly those who have experienced pandemics in recent history) the people are more likely to behave correctly without enforcing lockdowns, but most places need to enforce them because such a large number of people will otherwise ignore them.	21:26
qzurw[m]	what do guys think should be done about people getting pandemic/covid fatigued?	21:27
tinwhiskers	err, I mean s/ignore them/behave badly/	21:27
tinwhiskers	qzurw[m]: it's a good question. What do you think?	21:32
tinwhiskers	we need to get communities to come together (not physically), support each other and the healthcare workers, encourage and sympathise. The city-wide clapping for healthcare workers was the sort of thing that lifts people's spirits. As for other ways to do it, I don't know. Leadership and their communication is critical.	21:34
tinwhiskers	great "wartime" leaders can lift morale.	21:35
tinwhiskers	obviously you can pretty much look at the US for all the examples of what not to do.	21:35
tinwhiskers	(new yorkers clapping healthcare workers being an exception, and noting it's not just the US that has done things wrong, but they cover all the bases)	21:37
DocScrutinizer05	the peer group concept may go a long way regarding avoidance of "covid fatigue"	21:37
tinwhiskers	"bubbles"?	21:37
DocScrutinizer05	call them bubbles if you like that better. I don't know if and what the established english term for it	21:38
DocScrutinizer05	a group of 10 or 20 people which may meet as often an long as they wish, but _none_ of them may meet _any_ other person outside the group	21:38
DocScrutinizer05	not even temporarily	21:39
tinwhiskers	yeah, although I would set the bubble size a bit lower given the extent of the problem right now. More like 8-10 imo.	21:39
tinwhiskers	maybe only 5 until things improve a bit.	21:39
tinwhiskers	5 close friends is enough to raise your spirits and give you something to look forward to.	21:40
DocScrutinizer05	doesn't matter much as long as the complete group strictly isolates grom any other people	21:40
DocScrutinizer05	from*	21:40
tinwhiskers	there's always leaks and you want to minimise the damage when there is a leak.	21:40
DocScrutinizer05	after 3 weeks you have a few groups of size 5 10 50 whatever that are completely infected and a 99.99% which erradicated the virus	21:41
DocScrutinizer05	the infected groups stay quarantined until they are not infectious anymore - "done"	21:42
tinwhiskers	yeah. the bubble thing was clearly communicated and modified over time in NZ. It was one of the really winning strategies. When we were in level 4 it was families only, then after a few weeks when we went to level 3 it was families and about 3 other people, then it went to about 5 people at the next level, then 10, and now we have no bubbles.	21:43
DocScrutinizer05	the mission critical thing is to eliminate leaks, not group size	21:43
tinwhiskers	but if/when outbreaks occur bubbles come back into effect in those locations.	21:44
tinwhiskers	I don't think it's possible to eliminate leaks so size is important	21:44
tinwhiskers	people still do shopping, etc.	21:44
DocScrutinizer05	and eliminate leaks obviously means the group MUST NOT change members	21:45
tinwhiskers	yes, but even if they strictly adhere to that (and not all will) there will be leaks.	21:45
tinwhiskers	if you have groups of 99 it's almost certain someone will let the group down either though bad luck or bad actions.	21:45
tinwhiskers	erm 100... 99??	21:46
tinwhiskers	obviously if you had groups of 1000 it would be a disaster, so size does factor in.	21:48
DocScrutinizer05	100 is obviously too large a group. you're right group size shouldn't be too large but 10 or 20 doesn't make that much of a difference yet. The larger the group the more important every single member of that group strictly follows "leakage avoidance"	21:48
tinwhiskers	exactly what the sweet spot is, I couldn't say, but the smaller the better. The intent to to prevent covid-fatigue so it doesn't need to be very big to allow you to have access to close friends.	21:48
tinwhiskers	yeah	21:49
tinwhiskers	and of course bubble size is allowed to change as risk changes.	21:49
DocScrutinizer05	I think we need those bubbles for a 3 weeks, for circuit breaker	21:50
tinwhiskers	that requires clear and consistent communication.	21:50
tinwhiskers	I agree	21:50
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +15078 cases (now 9.0 million), +176 deaths (now 231847) since an hour ago — Canada: +915 cases (now 222919), +19 deaths (now 10015) since 4 hours ago	21:50
DocScrutinizer05	during which they shouldn't change	21:50
tinwhiskers	right	21:50
tinwhiskers	they can be reassessed every few weeks.	21:51
qzurw[m]	how does this prevent covid fatigue?	22:12
tinwhiskers	you get to maintain social interactions through social bubbles.	22:12
tinwhiskers	I honestly don't think it's too late for many of these countries who have lost control to turn it around. They have been pussyfooting around for months watching the problem grow steadily worse for fear of the economic hit which has come anyway. A concerted program involving border closures and border quarantine as discussed, social bubbles, financial assistance with "wartime" levels of investment for 3-4 weeks, followed by extensive	22:13
tinwhiskers	contact tracing can be effective for countries of any size.	22:13
tinwhiskers	I just hope one country bites the economic bullet and shows the others it can be turned around for the medium term economic benefit.	22:14
tinwhiskers	and the short term health benefits.	22:14
tinwhiskers	qzurw[m]: social interaction and support is probably the most important thing to help reduce covid-fatigue. Morale-building leaders are also needed, not divisive leaders.	22:16
tinwhiskers	the people need to be rallied to bring them together to fight the common cause.	22:16
tinwhiskers	*fight for the common cause	22:17
tinwhiskers	another thing we did in NZ was travel restrictions even within your own region. For example, you were not allowed to travel for than 25km from your home during level 4 lockdown. That was increased as we got the problem under control and now we can travel anywhere within the country again, and local tourism is doing quite well again.	22:22
tinwhiskers	*travel more than 25km	22:22
tinwhiskers	police were randomly stopping people to enforce this restriction and issuing fines.	22:23
tinwhiskers	Mostly people were let off with a warning because the whole system worked so well we actually came out of level 4 lockdown before police really needed to get serious about it.	22:25
tinwhiskers	although a couple of prominent politicians resigned after being caught breaking the 25km rule.	22:25
tinwhiskers	one of them was actually on the covid taskforce :-/	22:27
tinwhiskers	oh, I didn't mean to suggest the financial assistance would only last 3-4 weeks. That's the initial lockdown, which would be eased, and assistance would continue for much longer than that, but after 3-4 months the virus will likely be under control.	22:33
tinwhiskers	unfortunately, having done this wrong the first time round these countries really have no way to avoid another economic hit now, but it's best to make it count for something.	22:35
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: What is the role of T cells in COVID-19 infection? Why immunity is about more than antibodies (80 votes) \| https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-is-the-role-of-t-cells-in-covid-19-infection-why-immunity-is-about-more-than-antibodies/ \| https://redd.it/jj5bn1	22:45
qzurw[m]	any new word on reinfections?	23:11
tinwhiskers	qzurw[m]: not much recently that I've heard other than the few confirmed (by genetic sequence) reinfections and some hints that at least some people are having more severe symptoms second time round.	23:19
tinwhiskers	at this stage we can't say if the more sever symptoms were just due to getting a higher initial dose of virus, or if some type of antibody dependent enhancement is occurring. Could go either way.	23:20
qzurw[m]	i heard about that	23:21
tinwhiskers	ok	23:21
qzurw[m]	i read today that antibody levels are dropping in some countries	23:21
qzurw[m]	but afaik dropping antibody levels are normal	23:21
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Saudi govt to grant 133,000 USD to families of health workers who died from COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Ot0Wmg	23:21
tinwhiskers	not entirely sure what you mean by "in some countries".	23:22
tinwhiskers	antibodies will decline in patients over time after they recover	23:22
qzurw[m]	ljl are you online yet?	23:23
tinwhiskers	actually they may increase briefly after recovery depending how long it took the person to recover, but then they will decline, usually lasting something like 3-6 months (maybe a bit more).	23:25
tinwhiskers	that doesn't necessarily mean they no longer have T-cell immunity though.	23:25
qzurw[m]	tinwhiskers: are you having anti lockdown protests in your country?	23:26
tinwhiskers	qzurw[m]: no. we don't have any lockdowns any more.	23:26
tinwhiskers	no community cases any more - just regular positive cases in quarantine.	23:27
tinwhiskers	i.e. people coming into the country from overseas.	23:27
tinwhiskers	we've had three community outbreaks now but stomped them all out.	23:27
qzurw[m]	<tinwhiskers "not entirely sure what you mean "> I think the headline I read said that UK antibodies were dropping, but I don't remember for sure	23:27
qzurw[m]	<tinwhiskers "antibodies will decline in patie"> if they get sick, does this count as reinfection?	23:28
tinwhiskers	hrm. antibodies drop everywhere. Probably a bad headline.	23:28
tinwhiskers	try finding the original paper it refrs to	23:29
tinwhiskers	if they sick a second time and it's shown to be a different "strain" of the virus then it counts as a reinfection.	23:29
tinwhiskers	even if they don't get sick but are confirmed with a different strain it's still a reinfection, but we're unlikely to spot many of those.	23:30
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus antibodies decline after infection, study finds, raising questions about herd immunity → https://is.gd/rY1ely	23:30
tinwhiskers	heh. Is that the link you're referring to ^	23:31
tinwhiskers	we've known for a long time that the antibodies fade after recovery. This virus doesn't seem to be much different to other coronaviruses in that regard.	23:32
qzurw[m]	your tonga right?	23:32
tinwhiskers	this is just one of many studies quantifying that, but the headline is trying to make it sound more dramatic I think.	23:32
tinwhiskers	yeah, in Tonga. Heading home to New Zealand in January.	23:32
qzurw[m]	lmao that might be the link	23:33
qzurw[m]	assuming tim gets strain X. He recovers and has temp immunity	23:34
tinwhiskers	we do like to see more studies quantifying how long antibodies last since at this point only six months have really passed so we won't really know the maximum time they last for some time yet.	23:34
qzurw[m]	like 3 months later, his antibodies fade and he gets a NEW dose of X	23:34
tinwhiskers	yes, but even after his antibodies fade he may still have immunity	23:34
tinwhiskers	via T-Cell "memory"	23:35
qzurw[m]	since X isn't re emerging, does that not count as a reinfection?	23:35
qzurw[m]	(not that anybody would be able to tell that X dose one cleared up and that X dose two is different)	23:35
tinwhiskers	i.e. the body already knows how to make more of those antibodies so it can mount a more quick offensive attack than if it were naive, albeit more slowly than if antibodies are still actively circulating.	23:36
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +11294 cases (now 9.0 million), +116 deaths (now 231963) since an hour ago	23:36
tinwhiskers	qzurw[m]: the confirmed reinfections have used genetic sequencing to demonstrate a second infection, as opposed to merely relapsing.	23:36
LjL	qzurw[m]: I think I'm on leave today unless it's an emergency, my brain is melting	23:38
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Over 10,000 people in Canada have died from coronavirus → https://is.gd/3UI4EU	23:39
qzurw[m]	tinwhiskers: hmm okay	23:40
tinwhiskers	the chance of getting a reinfection with exactly the same genetic sequence is basically zero.	23:40
qzurw[m]	LjL: have some ice cream to give yourself a brain freeze, maybe the melt and freeze will cancel eacj other out lmao	23:41
qzurw[m]	<tinwhiskers "the chance of getting a reinfect"> do you know why?	23:41
tinwhiskers	because it is constantly changing in subtle ways.	23:42
tinwhiskers	when they do tracing of the virus through sequencing there's frequent single changes going on, but they are similar enough to group together. By the time you recovered from a first infection it's basically impossible that you will come across another instance of the virus without any changes, so you can pretty much always tell a reinfection from a relapse if you happen to have a sequence of both.	23:45
qzurw[m]	tinwhiskers: ok makes sense	23:46
ryouma	are reinfections low due to immunity or do we not know?	23:55
ryouma	the changes are not epitopes (immune system recognizes them) right?	23:55
Brainstorm	New from Ars Technica: Science: No pre-election glimpse of COVID-19 vaccine data, frontrunner suggests → https://is.gd/CJgrOn	23:57
jacklsw	we got some herd immunity already?	23:59

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