libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2020-10-30

BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Remote Marshall Islands Record First Confirmed Coronavirus Cases → https://is.gd/03cIMb00:18
LjLryouma, btw in my wikipedia meddling i found there is a dedicated article on long covid (short, for now)00:20
tinwhiskersRE: Marshal Islands: "We can assure the public that these are strictly border cases and were discovered while these people were in quarantine, where they remain until this time," the government said. 00:20
LjLhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Covid  not sure how soon in 3 2 1 they will try a rename00:20
LjLtinwhiskers, "They totally weren't spotted by local boaters"00:20
tinwhiskerslol00:20
tinwhiskersI guess they are allowing travellers. Good to know.00:21
tinwhiskersThe pair — a woman, 35, and a man, 46 — arrived on a military flight Tuesday from Hawaii. The government said the two did not interact with members of the community, and both were asymptomatic when they tested positive. 00:21
tinwhiskersMaybe allowed as experts or something, and not tourism.00:21
tinwhiskers*essential workers00:21
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: The ‘very, very bad look’ of remdesivir, the first FDA-approved COVID-19 drug (80 votes) | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/very-very-bad-look-remdesivir-first-fda-approved-covid-19-drug | https://redd.it/jkhev400:29
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2831 cases (now 9.2 million), +28 deaths (now 234100) since an hour ago — Canada: +737 cases (now 229043), +16 deaths (now 10089) since an hour ago00:35
ryoumaLjL: can't read but definitely will need to be watched for meddling of hte evil variety00:36
ryoumadoes not mention pem.  should.00:37
LjLpostit: look at getting an RSS feed of the Long COVID (and maybe COVID-19 if it's not too spammy) wikipedia article into the bot00:37
ryoumaintersting00:37
LjLryouma, it's just a reminder for myself. you can get Atom feeds (not RSS technically but my bot handles bot) of article histories. i need to see if i can weed out minor edits though, i can't have every single typo correction posted here00:40
LjLhandles both*00:41
LjLbot handles bot00:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A new coronavirus variant is seen spreading across Europe, research says → https://is.gd/TEptZ101:22
LjLBrainstorm, let it not be the SAME USUAL VARIANT again or i'm punching you01:35
ryoumai'd prefer it be01:36
ryoumabut i know what you meant and agree there too01:36
LjLyeah01:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK government admits training Nigeria’s ‘brutal’ SARS police unit → https://is.gd/NMbF1501:40
ryoumaugh01:44
LjLryouma, that's a name coincidence, nothing to do with SARS the disease01:49
LjL(didn't click, but saw it mentioned before01:49
LjL)01:49
ryoumai know01:50
BrainstormUpdates for US: +8111 cases (now 9.2 million), +77 deaths (now 234177) since an hour ago — Canada: +157 cases (now 229200) since an hour ago — Netherlands: +4 deaths (now 7262) since 11 hours ago01:50
ryoumai was ughing at the uk which has too good of a repuation01:50
ryoumawrt human rights01:51
ryoumai.e. general public inside and outside uk has no clue01:51
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Protecting nature is vital to escape 'era of pandemics’ – report | Wildlife → https://is.gd/F79g3001:58
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Spain enters six-month state of emergency to tackle pandemic → https://is.gd/5IYPOa02:07
LjLhadn't spain's supreme court said state of emergency had to end?02:21
de-factoDoubling times in Germany: Incidence 7 days, Hospitalizations 9 days, Ventilated 10 days on 2020-10-28 according to Merkel 02:31
LjL"Far-right party Vox said it would challenge the extension in the Spanish court, as the Constitution stipulates that the parliament must renew a state of emergency every 15 days." found at https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-extends-state-of-emergency-amid-record-surge/202390502:34
LjLi don't see how they expect the courts not to overturn this if they overturned it before02:34
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Exclusive: Majority of Americans want a national mask mandate, new poll finds (10038 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-mask-poll-trump-biden-2020-election-fauci-mandate-b1424002.html | https://redd.it/jkc99w02:35
de-factoGood summary of the Lockdown decision from 2020-10-28 with english subtitles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1asJHJ2_hM02:37
de-facto"Angela Merkel outlines new coronavirus restrictions for Germany"02:37
LjLtinwhiskers, your country wants cannabis to stay illegal, boo (but at least they voted in favor of euthanasia)03:04
tinwhiskersoh. the results are out. ok. Yeah, no surprises there.03:05
LjLi learned about Milan being rioting a li'l bit from IRC03:07
LjLat least you have the excuse you're elsewhere in a godforsaken island03:08
de-factoI am wondering about the 4 weeks Lockdown in Germany: if it really would show first containment effects (hopefully decline of incidence) no sooner than 2 weeks into the lockdown and if the curve would be more or less symmetric, would that mean we will end up at the same point on 30th Nov where we entered it on 2nd Nov?03:11
de-factoAnd that already is (overly?) optimistic assuming the decline would be realizable with those containment measures and that it would be as fast as the current exponential increase03:12
de-factomore realistic would be that we end up with higher incidence than when we entered the lockdown and it just buys us expensive time, so we need to use that time03:13
de-factoit seems they want to make a mid term bilance 2 weeks into the lockdown about its effectiveness03:14
de-factoso probably they will see that its not enough (unless citizens REALLY go far beyond the mandatory containment measures)03:15
de-factoif we only have this one try of buying expensive time, why not make the MAXIMUM out of it and also close schools?03:18
de-facto75% of infection sources are unknown03:18
de-factohopefully they will make it a LOT more strict 2 weeks into the lockdown03:18
de-factothey said that more than 75% contact reduction would be absolutely necessary to achieve some significant containment03:18
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: Antiviral antibodies in COVID-19 patients: In infectious disease world, the term “correlate of protection” refers to something that can be measured – antibodies or T cells – which indicates that a person is protected against infection or disease. The correlates of protection for SARS-CoV-2 infection of humans are not yet [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/yEOqZf03:19
LjLde-facto, your lockdown seems a bit wishy washy (but no, i haven't watched the video). still, i think you're very right on that what lockdowns give you is *time*. it's obvious, yet Italy and other countries haven't really taken advantage of that time.03:26
LjLthey don't magically solve anything, they just buy you time to brace for impact better03:26
LjLi guess with the current anti-lockdown attitudes around the EU, and with the long lag before cases show up and go down later, it's unlikely we'll get on-again-off-again lockdowns as was proposed by the Imperial paper03:27
LjLi mean, we may end up with a form of that, but in a haphazard manner, not planned out to actually stay below hospital capacity :\03:27
de-factoIf i am as optimistic as possible i would assume that the lockdown only will buy us one month time, it prevents a further increase of incidence for that one month (by going up then down again), so in best case will take us back with incidence to where we entered the lockdown03:34
de-factoso the real question would be: what do we need to do with that expensive time? what is its best usage?03:34
LjLwhat's stopping working in italy now is testing, contact tracing, and family doctors03:35
LjLgermany may have different weak spots though03:35
LjLpeople should also get their flu shot if they haven't already. here, we probably won't get any of that03:36
de-factoMerkel said the goal would be to come back to an incidence where it can be controlled by tracing, well that obviously was not even the case before since we ended up in lockdown now03:36
de-factothat would be on weekly 50/100k or cumulative 6k per day03:36
LjLi don't think it can be *controlled* at this stage but i don't think it's useless either03:36
de-factoyes agreed03:36
ryoumawhat about family doctors is stopping working03:37
de-factoramp up testing capacity, yes i would agree that is necessary 03:37
de-factoalso tracing capacity and healthcare capacity03:38
LjLryouma, from reports i hear, some are just no longer answering the phone. they're supposed to give people their flu shots, and now they're even supposed to be the ones testing them with antigen tests ("rapid" tests). but in Lombardy, they aren't given decent PPE, they don't have a paid secretary to answer phone calls, when their stupid special-printer-for-prescriptions-only breaks they have to call someone at their expense03:39
de-factoi mean we cant be in lockdown the whole winter, so we need to use resources (and that includes compliance of citizens aswell) as effective as possible03:39
LjLthey are basically freelancers, renting apartments to practice in, except technically they're state employees03:39
LjLit's beyond ridiculious, and it's not so ridiculous in other regions of italy, namely Veneto03:39
LjLwhich is probably part of what made a big difference between Lombardy and Veneto in the first wave03:40
LjLin Veneto they have clinics where multiple GPs practice and they can also have things like an ultrasound machine, an EKG, and people to run them03:40
LjLwhich i think is similar to the case in other civilized parts of Europe03:41
LjLbut in Lombardy, it's just an overworked doctor in a makeshift apartment03:41
de-factohmm but they also have ICU beds in Lombardy, right?03:41
LjLand the bottom line is - they're scared. they don't want to see a billion patients just because the state says they must. at this point they'd rather just retire03:41
de-factothats a real problem 03:42
LjLde-facto, yes, before COVID, Lombardy tended to be praised as an example of *good* healthcare. but we realize now that it might be true of the hospitals, some of them at least, having prominent hospitals that employ modern techniques is good, but day-to-day healthcare isn't just that03:43
LjLbut of course there's more money in hospitals than in making sure GPs can do their job03:43
LjL</cynical>03:43
LjLde-facto, and anyway, we still have fewer ICU beds in Lombardy than the German average, iirc :P03:44
de-factostill they exist, acutally ICU capacity also only is worth a certain amount of time in expoential increase, when they are full they are full03:45
de-factojust imagine, if hospitalizations double in just 9 days then a half used capacity is worth 9 days03:46
de-facto*half free capacity03:46
LjLde-facto, yeah, but what appears to have happened in Veneto was that many more patients could be effectively managed at home, overseen by their GPs03:46
LjLin Lombardy, more people ended up in hospitals, and those at home were neglected, so that when they reached hospitals, they might need ICU immediately03:46
de-factoany distributed approach will be worth a LOT in such times03:46
LjLso since as you said, no matter how many ICU beds you have, they'll soon run out if you have an exponential increase03:47
LjLwe best make sure as few ICU beds are possible are ever needed03:47
LjLwhich i'm sure patients will appreciate, too03:47
de-factoyes full ack03:47
de-factoprevention is the key to a distributed problem03:47
LjLand prevention means lockdowns inevitably imo, but it also means, if possible, not getting patients sick enough that they must rush into ICU03:48
de-factothe solution must be distributed to solve the problem at its cause, everything else is just reacting and buying time03:48
LjLso in spring when we *had* a full lockdown, Veneto recovered, Lombardy didn't03:48
LjLde-facto, well, we probably can't create new "distributed" ICU beds at an exponential rate, i'm afraid :P so the problem still has no clear solution, but it will help if we distribute the care of patients who aren't yet in need of ICU03:49
LjL%cases lombardy03:50
BrainstormLjL: In Lombardy, Italy, there have been 170526 confirmed cases (1.7% of the population) and 17357 deaths (10.2% of cases) as of 21 hours ago. 196302 tests were performed (86.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 15.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardy for time series data.03:50
LjLstill lower prevalence than belgium03:50
de-factoas you said the distributed approach somehow must prevent that disease trajectories end up in a state that occupies ICU beds03:50
LjL(confirmed prevalence, at least)03:50
LjLde-facto, well, i don't know if that's possible. but there's the still-plausible (i think?) hypothesis that less viral load = milder disease, so mask wearing is important03:51
de-factoin doubt prevent infection to vulnerable by both bringing down incidence and raising up shielding with testing and other non-pharmaceutical measures03:51
LjLdistancing also i guess, but i see distancing as a less controllable thing unless you just impose a lockdown and people must distance by staying at home period03:51
de-factoyes of course03:51
de-factoall of that, the question is more how to know what will be enough to ensure always to have some emergency reserve of free ICU beds03:52
de-factohere already there are outbreaks again in elderly homes03:52
LjLde-facto, one smart thing in the german lockdown compared to our current set of emergency law (although i didn't check out the last one) is that it said your stores / public places must have no more than 1 person per 1m². that's much better than our "people must be able to keep 1m distance from each other" not only because it's a lot more space, but because it's *measurable*. take the store size, divide by 10, and you know how many people are allowable03:53
de-factomost of them will end up in hospitals occupying capacity for very long times, many will also die from it03:53
LjLin italy the store keeper can always say "it seemed people were distanced enough", for all i know03:53
LjLsome supermarkets are going back to the good ol' "queue outside" status, but i think they're basically doing it of their own accord03:54
de-factooh its much more square meters per persion afaik03:54
LjLde-facto, it's either 10 or 25, i heard those numbers03:54
LjL25 is a lot03:54
LjLanyway, i'd take 1003:54
de-factoyeah something like that i am not sure but much more than 103:54
LjLit still means fewer people than saying "just keep everyone distanced 1m"03:54
LjLde-facto, 1 is italy03:55
LjLbut also it's not ², it's just 1m from each other03:55
LjLthat's the important difference imo03:55
LjLif you state a distance that people must keep, that's almost impossible to measure in terms of "how many people can be inside?"03:55
LjLinstead if you say each person must have x m², that's very easy to measure, you have the place's size, divide, done03:55
de-factoi dont think stores are such a big source of infections though03:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: Record traffic out of Paris as second French lockdown begins → https://is.gd/5ur6oL03:56
LjLwhy not?03:56
LjLi think there are all the conditions, especially in supermarkets03:56
de-factoat least from my own experience people in stores act very careful keep distance, wear masks and sanitize hands03:56
LjLyou have dubious HVAC taking air everywhere; if there's important fomite transmission, well, it's full of fomites and people touch everything03:56
de-factorestaurants i am not so sure actually, people sit on small tables facing each others while eating without masks an talking03:57
de-factobars definitely are not better03:57
LjLthere are "cold sections" in supermarkets where the virus can probably survive for a very long time03:57
LjLi agree bars and restaurants are probably worse03:58
LjLi'm still thinking in terms of the spring lockdown i guess03:58
LjLall those things were closed, no question03:58
LjLbut supermarkets needed to stay open, because deliveries weren't working well enough03:58
LjLand i kept saying: close supermarkets, close public transport03:58
LjLyou can improve home delivery capacity by means of all the people who're losing their jobs03:59
de-factoyeah supermarkets will stay open and i think its fine for now03:59
LjLbut now we're not even doing a full lockdown like in spring, so we'll never know if i was right about that :P03:59
LjLi know that in wuhan they limited people's ability to get groceries a lot04:00
LjLsome people had everything delivered04:00
LjLother people could only go to the supermarket once a week04:00
LjLand at least from the official number, you know, china is doing good04:00
kreyrenAre there any non-infected people in USA at this point?04:00
LjLwe can disbelieve their numbers, or we can start looking into their methods04:00
LjLkreyren, uh, yes04:00
de-factoit always depends on prevalence04:01
de-factoas you said if fomites transmission are a driver, how many infected people enter on average to a supermarket? how much air exchange volume rate does their ventilation system support?04:01
LjLde-facto, yes well we've reached a point that they didn't because they managed to stop it much sooner. which means maybe we can't use their methods directly, but i would still look at them04:02
kreyrenLjL, dunno the amount of tests taken in relation to sensitivity and specificity seems to follow the infected ratio + i guess that some trump supporters doing the test would be probably more then willing to make the tests look better04:02
de-factoyes of course consider all of them, but i think some of them may not work anymore for high prevalence and others maybe were unnecessary 04:03
LjLkreyren, even the hardest hit areas in europe hadn't passed 15% or so, except now Belgium is crazy and apparently Liège has 40% prevalence... also a city in Brazil, based on antibody tests i don't know the validity of04:03
LjLbut no matter how they're playing with the test, i *very* strongly believe there are non-infected people in the USA and they are actually the majority04:04
kreyrenLjL, why do you believe that?04:04
LjLde-facto, sure, let's not weld people inside their homes, that's inhumane. let's just weld their mouths and noses shut if they aren't wearing a mask :P04:04
de-factoyet in Manaus cases are raising again https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb04:05
LjLkreyren, do i really need to waste time explaining the obvious?04:05
LjLyour question is extreme04:05
kreyrenLjL, point taken~04:05
LjLobviously there is at least one non-infected person in the US04:05
LjLand as to the majority not being infected, as i said, since it's not the case even in the worst hit places taken as individual cities, i see NO reason for the US to be any worse04:06
kreyreni would argue the validity of the non-infected person as it seems that people are just staying home/ going to work even though they are clearly infected O.o04:06
LjLplus, people become symptomatic all the time in the US04:06
LjLwhich means new infections are taking place04:06
LjLwhich means those people were not previously infected, unless everyone is getting re-infected en masse04:06
LjLwhich i really hope is not the case04:07
LjLkreyren, and you say that based on what data?04:07
LjLand even if it's true how does it prove your concept that everybody is infected?04:07
LjLthe US has a very high proportion of infections, compared to many other countries, even according to the official numbers. they may test less to find fewer positives perhaps (Trump said as much), but that doesn't mean those positives they find are fake and were already infected. that would be ridiculous04:08
kreyrenLjL, None data other the observation was curious if the hypothesis could be disproven to the reasonable degree04:08
de-factoassuming everyone in USA has had it (its nonsense of course), why are there any new infections occuring then? it either would mean there is absolutely no immunity whatsoever and scientists did miss that completely (very unlikely, immunity even can be measured with seroprevalence of antibodies) or that the assumption is wrong and the majority is susceptible because completely naive (and not immune)04:08
LjLin fact, if they *had* already been infected, their test would turn out negative, and we'd have *fewer* positive cases found04:08
LjLi don't know what you mean by "reasonable". the hypothesis seems ludicrous to me, i don't mean to offend but i just find it makes very little sense04:09
LjLi need to wind down, drink some booze, watch a movie and get to bed, or i'll be as screaming-prone tomorrow as i was today and yesterday04:10
kreyrenLjL, I meant based on the amount of used tests in relation to specificity, sensitivity and some known data about false positives + people ignoring the symptoms and choosing to prevent that they are fine even though they obviously have covid seems in my mind close to the number of which we can reasonably believe are the taken valid tests on a quick look 04:11
kreyrenLjL, you are cute when you are screaming-prone though~04:11
LjLwhy thanks, but it makes me feel very bad04:11
kreyreni like honesty in people and usually when they are enraged about  something they behave as themself instead of what is appropriate in said environment for lack of better words~04:12
kreyreni like to believe that i can from that assume what kind of person that is to assume what i can expect from em04:12
kreyrenwhich is usually a good reason to deduce the trust~04:13
de-factopersonally i believe its a combination of both, fading immunity and completely naive susceptible, i think herd immunity only can be reached by vaccination because that may provoke a longer lasting immunization than mild infections04:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's Bolsonaro says fresh COVID lockdown measures are 'crazy' → https://is.gd/olvnGI04:14
LjLde-facto, let's hope so. the fading immunity is very worrisome to me. i hope vaccines can provide better immunity, but... why would they?04:14
de-factobecause they are designed to specifically induce that04:15
de-factothe pathogen itself selects for the opposite04:15
kreyrende-facto, like if we are going for herd immunity and if my case with covid can be trusted as a safe way to get antibodies (which is probably shoudn't) then i would assume that we would need to ensure that invidual's immune system is stronger then the virus particles to which said invidual was exposed to, but i don't see how to do that safely in relation to invidual's health 04:16
LjLbut are they? i understand what you say in the generic sense (the pathogen wants to keep immune defenses low), but this is just the first round of vaccines - were they really designed with an eye to "this should provide longer immunity than the virus" when they didn't even know about the immunity provided by the virus yet?04:16
LjLkreyren, herd immunity has always been used in the context of vaccinations. most researchers with a clue find the idea of reaching herd immunity just "naturally" both absurd and unethical. herd immunity just means that you don't necessarily have to vaccinate the *whole* population: if there are people who can't be vaccinated for various reasons, they'll still be protected by the fact almost everyone else is vaccinated04:17
LjLgaining herd immunity "naturally" is something that was only come up with after COVID, and it was very confusing and misleading all along04:18
de-factokreyren, its not clear yet if mild infections even will introduce long lasting immunity, there are documented cases or reinfection (and we dont know how many will occur in reality), fading of antibody levels and some even had infection but did not develop antibodies afaik04:18
kreyrende-facto, true i guess04:19
kreyrenaldo why can't we just do anti-body test to everyone and take plasma of infected people and redistribute that prior to controlled exposure04:19
de-factoLjL, well vaccines are designed to generate immunity, the longer the better, so i would assume a better vaccine would be able to produce longer lasting immunity. If first generation already is at that level? i dont know to be honest04:21
LjLde-facto, in theory, you can say, okay, we'll wait for the second generation, and just give booster shots with the first. but think of the logistics... it will already be an immense effort to try to vaccinate "everyone" *once*04:21
de-factokreyren, its much to risky you never know how full original pathogen infection will develop in a carrier prior to infection04:22
LjL04:22
LjLif anything, we should nebulize a virus that causes no disease but still gives rise to the same immune response04:22
kreyrende-facto, why does that matter assuming that the invidual would have the anti-bodies in a blood to attack the virus04:22
LjLbut evolution is better than us at doing that :P04:22
LjLit would take us... a while, probably04:22
kreyreno.o04:23
LjLkreyren, injecting plasma with antibodies from another person is a very dangerous procedure04:23
de-factokreyren, but your idea is not completely off track, to mimic an infection with the original as close as possible, e.g. by nasal spraying some attenuated version of SARS-CoV-2 targeting exactly the same cells, provoking the same immune reaction etc04:23
LjLit's done in severe cases of COVID, and even then, i don't think it's yet proven to be very effective04:23
LjLwhat you propose is not doable04:23
de-factothats beyond our currrent capabilities afaik though04:23
kreyrenLjL, thus why i said controlled environment and injecting the plasma slowly?04:23
LjLde-facto, no that was MY idea! :P04:23
LjLkreyren, what does it matter if it's injected "slowly"?04:24
LjLit's not dangerous as in the person will explode if you inject it fast04:24
kreyrenLjL, i.e. 200ml of solution injected to the person at 1ml per minute simmilar to how clinical trials are performed to stop in case it's causing an unwanted reaction04:24
de-factothere already are nasal spray vaccines in the pipeline, but none of them with something like attenuated SARS-CoV-2, all of them used some other viral vector or such04:24
kreyrenalso SARS-CoV-2 is allegedly an evolution or SARS-CoV-1 so why can't we use CoV-1 which seems to be less lethal and we seems to have a vaccine?04:25
de-factothink of a solution that can be applied in the field, e.g. in the remote areas of Africa or such04:25
de-factowe need to vaccinate everyone human not only a few rich kids in their young years04:26
LjLde-facto, what would be interesting (pure theory, i don't think we're even close to being able to do this safely) is an attenuated virus *that still reproduces and infects others*. that way, you solve the logistics. people get infected with a very mild form, and infect other people. but even if we could do that, it's still very risky because the attenuated virus could mutate back to a bad form04:26
LjLkreyren, SARS-CoV-2 is not an evolution of SARS-CoV-104:26
LjLthey are related04:26
de-factokreyren, btw you can see the current vaccine pipelines on https://covidvax.org/04:26
LjLalso, SARS-CoV-1 is *more* lethal by far04:26
kreyrenLjL, ah i see04:26
LjLit's around 10% fatality if i'm not mistaken, right de-facto?04:27
de-factoyep04:27
de-factoand less transmittable04:27
de-factoas is MERS04:27
LjLMERS is even more lethal and even less transmissible (thankfully)04:27
LjLi think around 30% lethality with treatment04:27
de-factoyes04:28
kreyreni see O.o04:28
de-factoSARS-CoV-2 is so infectious because it replicates in the UPPER respiratory tracts very efficiently and the current variant with D614G mutation even more so04:28
de-factothe evil distant cousins SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV seem to infect the LOWER respiratory tracts more (hence more lethal) but also less infectious04:29
kreyrenSo assuming this being the most efficient solution can we make SARS-CoV-2 to be less lethal somehow?04:29
de-factowell that may be a bit over simplified but still the principle applies i guess04:29
de-factowell less lethal and also stable in that property, e.g. ensuring it cant snap back to full lethality by some excape mutation04:30
de-factonot too easy i guess04:30
LjLoh that reminds me i didn't actually click on that ominous link that suggested YET ANOTHER important mutation (although so far they've all turned out to be bollocks except for D614G)04:30
LjLde-facto, uhm, basically, a new variant is spreading and close to becoming dominant that probably originated in Spain, but the study has no idea whether it actually spreads more efficiently or anything https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v104:34
LjLbut it does involve differences in the spike protein04:34
de-factough04:35
LjLbut you suggested it anyway04:36
de-factothat does not work because obviously they are not separated (just observe how currently prevalence from party people diffuses into families and the social circles of vulnerable and elderly)04:37
de-factowe all sit in one boat with this04:38
LjLkreyren, you had COVID, right? did you follow safety precautions? yes? then with an "as lethal as possible" variant, you'd be dead now04:38
LjLis your optimal outcome your own death?04:38
kreyrenLjL, like i have yet to see a decent human being that is chosing to not follow the safety procautions O.o04:38
tinwhiskersso you could just go out and shoot anyone not wearing a mask as well?04:38
LjLkreyren, the safety precautions do NOT make you immune from getting it, they just lessen the probabilities. so you'd still be killing tons of people who ARE following the precautions04:39
LjLhonestly you are giving a series of suggestions and hypothesis that don't make the slightest bit of sense. i think you're doing it in good faith but it's a bit... :(04:39
kreyrenLjL, Like in czechia these precautions were followed and we had very few cases in Q1 until these measures were removed and people doing things like mass celebration and orgies O.o04:40
kreyrenso i would assume me following these + wearing a gas mask makes it basically impossible to get infected?04:40
tinwhiskersyou'd assume wrong04:41
LjLgod i'm closing irc04:41
kreyrenx.x04:41
kreyrentinwhiskers, how so04:41
kreyrenLjL, sorry x.x04:41
kreyrenLjL, yep doing that in good faith 04:42
kreyrenat least i like to believe that i do~04:42
tinwhiskersit's certainly not "basically impossible" to get infected even if you wear a mask and socially distance. Do you really think all of the 45 million people in the world who have been confirmed as infected only did so because they didn't wear a mask and socially distance?04:43
kreyrentinwhiskers, like i know that i didn't until i went full retard and kissed with the infected O.o04:43
tinwhiskersoh, well that proves it. lol04:44
tinwhiskersyour risk goes down if you are careful, for sure.04:44
kreyren... and walked around that drunk guy that was smoking and caughing while wearing respirator x.x04:44
de-factoits all about lowering probabilities of infection for a specific environment with specific infection sources and virion concentration: just think about the experts, the medical personal protecting themselves with the best equipment available to them and still they have a raised probability of infection due to their working environment04:45
kreyrentinwhiskers, like in that gas mask i once sit for 5 min in a burning building and i was fine after that... and i used have nasty astma at that time04:45
de-factothere is no perfect solution other than to prevent contamination of an environment with the infectious pathogen04:45
kreyrende-facto, which is why ventilation and doing things like taking school exam outside are a thing?04:46
de-factoeverything else is just an appropriate lowering of infection probability by good using equipment04:46
de-factoyes outdoors infection probability by aerosol is much lower, just think about how your clothes would smell when being in the same room with a smoker and how that relates to outdoors04:47
tinwhiskersthe mask doesn't stop all virions (it may reduce severity) and you can also get infected through surface contamination. It's certainly quite possible to become infected even if you are careful though.04:47
de-facto(smoke being an analogue to imagine infectious aerosol particles from virus carriers)04:47
kreyrende-facto, outdoor with social distancing seems sane to me? And i have my clothes washed in a solution that makes it bacteria resistent for 8 hours so i would think something alike would help too O.o04:48
tinwhiskersyes, that helps04:48
tinwhiskersbut it doesn't make infection "basically impossible"04:48
de-factosurface contamination is a thing for sure, but when i remember correctly there were studies that suggested VERY strict hand hygiene only was able to reduce infections by something like 16% or such04:49
kreyreno.o04:49
de-factoit can stay infectious on smooth surfaces for several weeks though04:49
kreyrenryouma, just me being alleged psychopath~04:50
de-factoquite surprisingly long but also depending on contamination dose of course since it will decay exponentially with time04:50
kreyrende-facto, i see o.o aldo i would argue the probability, but i don't have good data to prove that x.x04:50
de-factoand outdoors when you stand together as a group and dont wear mask and talk to each other tiny droplets of spit may fly on straight trajectories out of the mouth to land on each others faces or such04:52
de-factoimagine any human without mask as some kind of "spray bottle"04:52
de-factoespecially when talking or breathing heavily, the most extreme of being sneezing or coughing04:52
kreyrende-facto, which was the main motivation for me to suggest making the virus more lethal as i feel like i am walking in a field of people pointing a gun at me atm..04:53
de-factothen even the air exchange by wind outdoors does not help anymore because those droplets are so big that they basically will fly on "ballistic" trajectories04:53
kreyrenwhere it seems that following the precautions seems to practically stop the spread O.o04:53
de-factoquite disgusting, actually we are spitting at each others all the time but now in the time of the pandemic it really is a serious problem04:54
de-factoyes the precautions actually make a lot of sense04:54
de-factothe problem is that everyone must follow them without exceptions04:55
kreyrenor like i got few of those white suits that virologists are using and protective shield so i guess that would make it impossible to get infected through clothes and skin?04:55
tinwhiskerskreyren: you could just make a law to require them and fine people instead of kill them.04:56
de-factoother than having a full hazard suits (those plastic bags around people) with positive air pressure inside of them there is no protection that comes close to 100%04:56
kreyrentinwhiskers, which would spread through law enforcers probably depending on the way that it would be handled04:56
tinwhiskershuh?04:56
de-factolike those they use in S4 labs or such04:56
kreyrende-facto, what is 100% then? space suit?04:56
de-factoyeah04:57
kreyreno.o04:57
de-factopositive pressure completely sealed suit04:57
de-factoyou blow air inside of them so any leakage would have air flowing out of it to block invasion of pathogen04:57
tinwhiskersde-facto: not sure if you're talking about kreyren's suggestion: "kreyren 's only logical solution in his mind is to make the virus as lethal as possible to let natural selection to handle those that doesn't care about safety procautions so that the rest can starve it in the wild, but he's too afraid to suggest it because people say he's psychopath... which he probably is"04:57
kreyrenthat seems probable assuming making it from that cheap plasticy layer that is recyclable if needed 04:57
de-factoits possible in those S4 labs but surely not in everyday life04:58
de-factothe only way is to prevent it at the source of the virion production itself, make people unable to become virion factories by giving them immunity to the infection by vaccination04:59
kreyrende-facto, like people are known to wear weirder things i would think that adapting it to look somewhat trendy and paying someone famous to wear it would make it socially acceptable, but i don't see it being a viable solution to ensure that the pathogen starves in the environment04:59
de-factonoone is stopping you from walking around in a plastic bag, i doubt it would be trendy though because its impractical05:00
de-factoyeah 05:00
kreyrenor i guess just locking everyone at home while making sure they have food and water for 14 days o.o05:01
de-factoi only mentioned it to demonstrate that the technical possibility to reach near 100% protection is there, just impractical in everyday life05:01
kreyrenbut that seems dictatorshipy~05:01
tinwhiskersthat seems a little less dramatic and less likely to kill lots of innocent people who are acting appropriately.05:01
tinwhiskersoh, so engineering a virus to kill people is ok though?05:01
tinwhiskersstrange priorities05:02
kreyrentinwhiskers, my argument was that i have yet to see a decent human being that is refusing to follow safety precautions05:02
de-factowell China did things that come close to that and it seems it worked to some degree, but impossible in our western world i guess05:02
de-factoweld people into their homes and stuff like that05:02
tinwhiskersthat's an exaggeration05:02
tinwhiskersChina returned to growth of over 5% a few months ago now05:03
tinwhiskers(back to pre-covid rates)05:03
LjLryouma, i know that one, it's an autoclesis05:03
LjL%wik autoclesis05:03
de-factowell they did nail doors and things like that (at least there are videos in the internet about that), not sure how often they did that though05:03
BrainstormLjL, no such article found on the English Wikipedia 05:03
kreyrenlike assuming that we can stop spread from people to people that would starve the virus and seems to be as the most practical assuming current vaccine development.. Logically thinking i would be convinced to believe that minor discomfort wouldn't be a solution 05:03
LjLBrainstorm, your mom didn't find it!05:03
kreyrenLjL, don't scream at him you were the one creating it on python05:04
de-factopoint being: regardless of the details, China did a much more aggressive containment and was successful with it it seems05:04
kreyrenyou monster!05:04
LjLkreyren, yes and he's never grateful05:04
kreyrenLjL, Why would he be grateful when you made him disabled~05:04
LjLryouma, http://changingminds.org/techniques/language/figures_speech/autoclesis.htm05:04
LjLkreyren, :(05:05
LjLthat would be new05:08
de-factoaaaw :)05:08
de-factoLOL05:08
kreyrenFINALLY SOMEONE WHO CAN SPELL MY FUCKING NAME RIGHT05:09
kreyrenBrainstorm, <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 05:09
LjLwell instead of a movie, since it's too late, i watched a Trump interview. clearly i'm a masochist05:10
kreyrenLjL, I also enjoy wathing retarded people on television~ 05:10
kreyrenespecially from far away land called europe~05:10
kreyrengood thing he can't swim05:10
LjLwe have enough dumb politicians in europe too05:10
ryoumadon't be so certain that america won't go out and grab you05:11
kreyrenLjL, I like dumb politicians~ Are usually easily influenced to respect my view instead of sociopathic psychopath with nuke codes ^-^05:11
LjLsociopath and psychopath is basically the same thing, by the way05:12
kreyreno.o05:12
kreyrendoes that mean that i am also sociopath then~05:12
LjLwell you labelled yourself a psychopath. i'm afraid unless you're a psychiatrist you are not qualified to make that diagnosis05:13
de-factoand some of them had COVID, still unknown how the long term neurological effects will turn out to be05:13
kreyrenLjL, i see 05:13
Zalyssasanerey: do people not spell your name correctly?05:14
Zalyssawith tab complete, idk how that happens05:14
sanereyZalyssa, never do and it's triggerring me05:14
LjLwell, benzodiazepine and alcohol certainly do seem to have a mutually reinforcing effect05:14
sanereyalways keyren05:14
sanereyor kayren05:15
sanereyor something alike05:15
sanerey-.-05:15
Zalyssaburn them05:15
kreyreni wish~05:15
kreyrenbut that's too drastical and i hate killing~ chemical burn caused agony seems as more acceptable option though05:16
ryoumaso alcohol makes benzos effects stronger and benzos make you more drunk on the same amt of alcohol?05:16
LjLryouma, well, for now i can notice the "more drunk" thing. i wish it also made me sleepy but it's not doing that05:17
LjLi haven't really found something that makes me sleepy and makes me want to sleep, in the same simple way that, say, a large dinner does05:17
ryouma:(05:17
LjLit would be nice to have because otherwise i always go to be too late, increasingly late05:18
LjLright now i'm just dizzy and clumsy05:18
kreyrenLjL, Sex seems to have that affect though~05:18
Zalyssadoes ljl know what sex is05:18
ryoumamelatonin, cetirizine, fexofenadine, not talking about pandemic05:18
LjLi think i'm familiar with the term05:18
LjLryouma, lol at the last one05:19
kreyrenLjL, can i educate ya~ :305:19
LjLmelatonin can be crossed off the list, it had bad effects on me05:19
LjLprobably haven't tried the other ones05:19
LjLkreyren, there's enough porn on the internet05:19
ryoumai need to find a low dose melatonin.  last i tried was 1mg and it was rough on esophagus.05:19
kreyrenLjL, i feel better though~05:19
de-factoceterizine works to some degree (i have house dust allergy), but not really well when i use the computer i still am awake late05:20
LjLryouma, find drops. they exist05:20
ryoumatoo fiddly05:20
LjLryouma, with drops you can calibrate the amount you need05:20
ryoumagood in theory05:20
LjLoh, cetirizine is Zyrtec05:21
LjLit used to work for me05:21
ryoumai am taking 2mg clonazepam and 180mg fexofenadine and sometimes 40mg cetirizine for alloergy and sleep05:21
LjLalthough in theory it's a 2nd-gen antihistamine and shouldn't cause much sleepiness05:21
LjLbut for a while it gave me the best sleep05:21
de-factowow05:21
LjLlately it doesn't have that effect anymore though05:21
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +23921 cases (now 392258), +138 deaths (now 11308) since a day ago — France: +10632 cases (now 1.3 million) since 9 hours ago — Netherlands: +598 cases (now 330853), +14 deaths (now 7276) since 3 hours ago — US: +207 cases (now 9.2 million) since 3 hours ago05:21
ryoumai am in a dangerously dusty and moldy place and was mold injured previously05:22
LjLi have mold in the shower, it's hard to get rid of05:22
ryouma2nd generation still induces sleep they just /say/ it doesn't05:22
de-factodamn Belgium again so high05:22
kreyreno.o05:22
ryoumabut only a little05:22
LjLryouma, too bad i guess nobody would prescribe me a 1st gen05:23
ryoumabenadryl is first gen05:23
ryoumanot otc?05:23
de-factoLjL, use chlorine bleach but only on keramics not on the wall paint (it makes it unstick)05:23
de-factothe one they sell in the supermarket it works perfectly05:23
ryoumait is an anticholinergic like clonazepam though05:23
LjLryouma, not sure. but what sense does it make to have 1st gen (more dangerous) be OTC, but 2nd and 3rd gen prescription-only?05:23
ryoumathe latter are newer.  but they are otc here.  have not heard of 3rd gen.05:24
ryoumathey were not otc in 90s05:24
LjLryouma, so being OTC is not based on the risk profile, just on how old they are?05:24
ryoumawho knows05:25
ryoumapolitics05:25
LjLfor a change05:25
de-factooh btw what do you guys think about ceterizine, would it influence the initial "innate" immune response when exposed to pathogens like SARS-CoV-2 aerosols or such?05:25
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Hospital floors are hotspot for bacteria, creating route of transfer to patients: The floors of hospital rooms are frequently contaminated with antibiotic-resistant bacteria within hours of patient admission, creating a route of transfer of potentially dangerous organisms to patients, according to a study published today as part [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/tjvk7k05:26
de-factoi asked my doctor and she said nope it only prevents inflammation (histamine), yet i am not sure how accurate that is05:26
ryoumai wondered that too but authorities say "leep taking your medicine" which does not convince me05:26
LjLde-facto, i don't know, but i know at least one antihistamine was in the list of repurposed drugs being tested05:26
ryoumaoh positive05:26
de-factoyeah but in what stage of the disease? 05:26
ryoumain first phase?05:26
LjLyes that's the important question i guess05:27
LjLi don't know, it was just a list and which phase trial they were in05:27
de-factoi mean at later stage where inflammation is a problem it may make sense to prevent that, but what about the earlier stages where viral replication must be prevented?05:27
LjLit's somewhere in the links list05:27
LjL9y05:27
LjLoh*05:27
LjLi was sent something about a drug (supplement?) that was completely off my radar05:28
LjLat first i assumed it was just one of those italian "discoveries" but there's international papers about it as far as i could see05:28
ryoumafamotidine at very high doses was considered at one time and that is an h2 blocker or something.  does nothign for allergies but is for heartburn.05:29
LjLlactoferrin05:29
LjL%wik lactoferrin05:29
LjL%papers lactoferrin05:29
BrainstormLjL, from English Wikipedia: 2PMS, 1B0L, 1BKA, 1CB6, 1DSN, 1EH3, 1FCK, 1H43, 1H44, 1H45, 1HSE, 1L5T, 1LCF, 1LCT, 1LFG, 1LFH, 1LFI, 1LGB, 1N76, 1SQY, 1U62, 1VFD, 1VFE, 1XV4, 1XV7, 1Z6V, 1Z6W, 2BJJ, 2DP4, 2GMC, 2GMD, 2HD4 [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lactoferrin05:29
BrainstormLjL, 7 papers: Molecular mechanisms behind anti SARS-CoV-2 action of lactoferrin by Mattia Miotto et al, published on 2020-07-14 at [u'http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.07341v1', u'http://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.07341v1'] [... want %more?]05:29
ryoumabut those with mcas use h2 blockers05:29
de-factoryouma, was that the one trump was subscribed?05:29
ryoumathere are things i try not to think about or be exposed to05:30
LjLbut this lactoferrin leaves me perplexed, at least as a prophylactic, because i understand it sequesters iron for the body. that might be good to hinder the virus, but it's not too good if you end up with an iron deficiency05:30
ryoumahmm05:31
ryoumawhat would htat do to hinder virus.  iron sequestration is some kind of thing the body does aginst bacteria or such i thought.  i wonder if then a chronic viral or bacterial infection will cause you to have iron deficiency.05:32
LjLi haven't read the paper05:32
LjLand i won't, not tonight05:33
LjLi'm still glad i bought an oxygen concentrator. i tested it again recently, after my relatives got covid05:33
LjLit brings my sat to 99% which is otherwise rare unless i hyperventilate05:33
LjLso it works to an extent05:33
LjLcan't say much more than that since it's just a chinese "not for medical use" device05:33
de-factointeresting Green Tea also causes iron deficiency, probably the cause of my slightly low hemoglobin level05:40
de-factonever thought about hat before05:40
de-factostarted to drink a lof of it since the pandemic because of its benefits 05:41
de-factoyet my oxygenation SpO2 went from ~93% to 97-98% since stopped smoking05:43
de-factoliver is excellent but a slight anemia that really may be because of the Green Tea05:44
de-factoanyhow i think i will continue to drink it, maybe a bit less of it05:45
ryoumai wonder if i shoul dask my doctor about my 91-92 percent05:45
ryoumaperhaps that is low normal05:46
de-factoafaik everyone has an individual "base line" and changes relative to that indicate lung function05:47
LjLde-facto: in the mountains my saturation was low, sometimes it touched 91, confused me a little since from what I'd read, it should be lower for just a few days but then you adapt. Not its usually 97 or 98 although 96 and 95 sometimes happen, but I guess that's okay also considering the error range of the instrument05:48
LjLNow*05:49
de-factoyeah those cheap Chinese devices probably are not that accurate05:49
de-factothats why i said evaluation relative to "individual" baseline makes more sense05:50
de-factoi dont even know if mine is calibrated or such05:50
LjLde-facto:  I checked it against a different (still Chinese, but completely different software) one and they mostly matched. Also this one is Contec which while Chinese I think they make half decent devices, the one I have has memory and can dump data to USB which I can analyze using the free software OSCAR05:51
de-factooh neat, i bought mine in the supermarket it was very cheap05:52
LjLOnly thing is it was €30 when i got it, now it's certainly more than 5005:52
LjLBought it on amazon05:52
de-factoit can do nothing other than display pulse and oxygenation05:52
ryoumaat some point i want one that i can use overnight05:53
LjLde-facto: not even alarms? Have you tried long-pressing the button?05:53
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 30OCT20 → https://is.gd/s40mut05:53
de-factoOLED brightness level, ok neat05:53
LjLryouma: you can use the one I have overnight but it's uncomfortable. They also have models where you wear the bulk of it around your wrist so it doesn't weigh on your finger05:53
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: El Paso, Texas, orders shutdown of all non-essential services due to coronavirus (10179 votes) | https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1321956364101521410?s=21 | https://redd.it/jklegg05:54
LjLryouma: google "sleepyheads" it's a forum of mostly people with sleep apnea. They know all the devices05:55
LjLde-facto: mine can be set to beep if pulse or sats exceed settable limits05:55
ryoumai really most likely need cpap/apap/bipap with oxygen but have many other priorities and it is a bureacucratic nightmare most likely that i cannot do05:55
LjLContec CMS50D+ (from memory)05:56
de-factoyeah i think i dont need that, i only want to know my oxygenation level sometimes thats all05:56
LjLI've sometimes kept it on overnight... on my toe, since it turns out it's more comfortable then on a finger :p and wear a sock and it won't fall off05:58
LjLIn those measurements while i sleep what seems to happen sometimes is that the pulse goes sharply up but at the same the saturation goes down to 93-9205:59
de-factoi still wonder if those devices can be made so cheap, why not also one that could test for SARS-CoV-2 antigens with two wavelengths?05:59
ryoumathat sounds like apnea except the limit in the us for apnea is lower06:00
de-factolike gargle, spit in a tube, mix with indicator fluorescense fluid marking a concentration test marker and another marker for the antigen, put it into device and have it display a level06:00
ryoumathey do use 2 lasers or some such06:01
de-factoyeah06:01
LjLryouma: maybe very mild "physiological" sleep apnea. I imagine everyone periodically ends up in suboptimal positions for sleeping06:04
ryoumacould be06:04
LjLI was a smoker but I quit about seven years ago06:04
ryoumaafk06:05
de-factoor LEDs one 660 nm (red) another 940nm (infrared) because oxygenated hemoglobin absorbs more infrared and is more transparent to red while the opposite is the case with deoxygenated hemoglobin06:07
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): New Zealand Quarantine Camps: submitted by /u/Yorkshire80 to r/Covid2019 → https://is.gd/MLCZ3c06:10
de-factothey are pulsed with alternating phases to distinguish about 40 Hz, one can even see that when waving it around while its measuring, the red blinking causes the light to look like a "dashed" line on moving it fast06:10
tinwhiskersGreen Party co-leader James Shaw has called claims by a Fox News commentator in the US that New Zealand was running "quarantine camps" for those with coronavirus "complete nonsense".06:23
tinwhiskersThat clickbait headline from reddit is only coming from sources like naturalnews, thewatcherstower, etc. "That's sort of being fanned up by Fox News which doesn't really warrant the phrase 'news outlet'." 06:24
tinwhiskerscomplete load of right-wing nutjob fantasy06:25
tinwhiskersyes, NZ has enforced border quarantine and those who refuse to take a test have to stay in a managed facility for longer, but there are no "camps". They are hotels.06:25
tinwhiskersFrom our customs dept: "All people entering New Zealand must go immediately into managed isolation or quarantine facilities. They will remain there for at least 14 days and must test negative for COVID-19 before they can go into the community." If you refuse to be tested you may be required to stay for up to 28 days. You may also be required to pay for the extra 14 days stay. Why the hell anyone would refuse a test is beyond me. They 06:33
tinwhiskersshould not be allowed to arrive at all unless they agree to be tested!06:33
BrainstormUpdates for France: +11910 cases (now 1.3 million), +19 deaths (now 36039) since an hour ago — Lombardy, Italy: +7339 cases (now 177865), +57 deaths (now 17414) since a day ago — Netherlands: +2580 cases (now 333433), +14 deaths (now 7290) since an hour ago — United Kingdom: +1558 cases (now 966898), +45 deaths (now 46000) since 13 hours ago06:37
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: As of Sunday, not wearing a face mask in Nuevo León could land you in jail | 29OCT20 → https://is.gd/CXm23I06:37
BrainstormNew preprint: How Emergency Care Congestion Increases Covid-19 Mortality: Evidence from Lombardy, Italy by Gabriele Ciminelli et al, published on 2020-10-29 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.27.20221085 [... want %more?]07:22
de-factoGermany on 2020-10-30 new daily infections +18681 (499694 total), +77 fatalities (10349 total)07:22
de-factothat is a big increase :(07:23
tinwhiskersMelbourne, the second-most populous city in Australia, ended its 111-day lockdown on Wednesday. The state of Victoria, where Melbourne is located, eased restrictions after recording zero new coronavirus cases on Monday — for the first time since June. "Now is the time to open up," Daniel Andrews, the state's top official, said during a media briefing. "Now is the time to congratulate every single Victorian for staying the course."07:24
tinwhiskersCongratulations are in order I think. Well done, them.07:24
de-factoyeah well done, i wish i lived there instead of Europe :(((07:25
tinwhiskersCar horns honked in the streets and declarations echoed that people could “get back on the beers”, as residents of Melbourne in the Australian state of Victoria celebrated.07:26
de-factoat least they demonstrate its possible to catch an outbreak, regain control and wrestle it down to kill it07:26
tinwhiskersyeah07:26
de-factothey open up already a few days after zero new cases?07:27
de-factowhy not wait a little bit longer just to be sure?07:27
tinwhiskersyeah. seems a little bold to not hold off at least a few more days.07:27
de-factoi wish for them it really was their last case they registered there07:28
tinwhiskersmaybe they figure contact tracing can deal with the mop up07:28
de-factoprobably if it is not asymptomatic07:28
tinwhiskerscontact tracing has been effective at containing asymptomatic cases in NZ in with clusters of symptomatic cases.07:30
de-factoyeah it can be done when incidence is really low07:30
tinwhiskersyeah07:30
de-factoin Europe currently no chance to contain it with tracing though it makes sense to continue with it in parallel to lockdown07:31
de-factoat some point it may be able to wrestle it below endemic hopefully07:32
tinwhiskersno, sure. contact tracing will only really be useful after a *proper* lockdown, which it doesn't look like any of the European countries are going to do anyway.07:32
de-factoyeah its only buying expensive time, but then using that time for what exactly?07:32
tinwhiskersyeah07:33
de-factoi mean they intend to drive it below tracing threshold but incidence was not catch-able with tracing since we ended in the lockdown anyhow07:34
tinwhiskersit seems pretty clear that when we come to look back at this all the countries that locked down hard had economies that recovered quickly, and those that were too afraid of economic harm ended up with more harm anyway.07:34
de-factoso basically i expect in best case to end up at 20k or such where we enter lockdown so a symmetric upside down U shape during Nov in Germany07:34
de-factoworst case, it wont even have a maximum and just slows down increase07:35
tinwhiskerswell, it's better than nothing I guess.07:35
de-factoyeah07:35
de-factostill not optimistic about it to be honest07:35
tinwhiskersno. I think it's going to be a largely fruitless strategy... and costly nevertheless.07:36
de-factoim curious what was the time in Australia from start of lockdown until first effect could be seen and how long till peak of incidence?07:43
tinwhiskerswell, pretty much the only cases in Australia were in Victoria during that period, so go back 111 days from the 26th and you're looking at the Victoria data.07:44
tinwhiskersThe other states all stayed open.07:44
tinwhiskersOh, I forgot that offloop has Australian state-data anyway07:47
tinwhiskersof course that includes quarantine data too, but it's pretty close to the picture of what happened. Peaked at 700 cases per day.07:48
tinwhiskersI guess lockdown started on 7 July07:49
tinwhiskersSo they locked down at about 150 cases per day, number continued to climb up to 700, about 3 weeks after lockdown began, then it took another 12 weeks to eliminate after the peak.07:53
tinwhiskersso if say, France continues to climb for another 3 weeks now in a similar sort of pattern as Australia did they might be looking at 100,000 cases per day (or a bit more) before things start to drop off again.07:56
tinwhiskersHowever, since the lockdown in Melbourne much much stricter than what France is doing, it may go even worse. yipes.07:56
tinwhiskersHonestly, it could fairly easily go as bad as 200,000 cases a day before things start to drop off again. jfc.07:57
de-factothats exactly the reason i asked 08:01
de-factoso if its really 3 weeks until maximum it may mean lockdowns in EU must be MUCH longer than initially planned to bring it below the value where it started08:02
tinwhiskersyes, true08:02
de-factothe lockdown in Victoria was quite strict also08:02
tinwhiskersyeah, very strict.08:02
de-factonot really comparable to Germany for example08:02
de-factoso impact of our "lockdown light" might be almost fucking nothing then :(08:03
tinwhiskersyeah08:03
de-factoalso their incidence was very much lower than ours here08:03
tinwhiskersit'll be interesting to see how this plays out. That may sound all a bit glib, but coming from a place where we never even got a single case you'll have to excuse my degree of detachment from the whole thing. It seems a world away.08:07
de-factoyou still did not return to NZ?08:08
tinwhiskersnot until January08:09
de-factonice, i must admit i envy you a bit for being there :)08:09
tinwhiskerswell, sure. I feel sorry for people over your way. It's pretty dire.08:09
de-factoits gonna be a tough winter but we will survive and recover from it, i hope that will be the case for all countries and also solidarity and Europe etc08:14
tinwhiskersyeah. It's gonna be tough keeping spirits up in the coming months. All the best.08:15
de-factomaybe we will earn a thing or two and some improvements and innovations or collaborations will come out of it in the long term08:15
de-factomaybe we will learn08:15
de-factolol08:15
tinwhiskersyeah, maybe we'll also forget them again before we get the next one.08:15
tinwhiskersI mean one of the take-home messages from the spanish flu was that the places that locked down early and hard recovered the quickest economically, but here we are.08:17
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: ICE detention centers saw sustained outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases, says study: More than a dozen U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention centers experienced large, repeated outbreaks of vaccine-preventable illnesses in the last three years, according to a new study by researchers at UC San Francisco. → https://is.gd/KMJSJB08:25
tinwhiskersSo we finally managed to book into the 14 day managed quarantine for January. It's good to know our place is secure and required to confirm our flights, however quarantine in NZ is by far the most dangerous place to be. There's usually 2-3 cases a day arriving into the country, and we're coming from a country with no cases put us at a relatively huge risk. I hope they have organised a lower-risk hotel for those people coming from lower 08:28
tinwhiskersrisk places. It's a bit scary.08:28
tinwhiskersI mean, puts us at a relatively huge risk compared to what we're used to (none).08:29
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Hospital floors are hotspot for bacteria, creating route of transfer to patients: The floors of hospital rooms are quickly and frequently contaminated with antibiotic-resistant bacteria within hours of patient admission, creating a route of transfer of potentially dangerous organisms to patients, according to a study published [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qaEmRO08:33
tinwhiskersHaving been isolated on an island for two years I don't see being isolated in a hotel room for two weeks being a major deal - it'll be luxurious quite frankly, but I sure won't be venturing outside the room if I can avoid it.08:34
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: France back in coronavirus lockdown as US surges to daily record: France headed into a second lockdown on Friday as the resurgent coronavirus pandemic hit new heights in the United States with a daily record of more than 90,000 cases, just five days before the presidential election. → https://is.gd/GPMomN09:17
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: US tops 90,000 coronavirus cases in 24 hours for first time: The United States notched a record number of new coronavirus cases on Thursday, for the first time topping 90,000 diagnoses in 24 hours, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University. → https://is.gd/i1bkcw09:26
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: New York, northeast US try to hold off second virus wave: New York and other parts of the northeastern United States, which have kept the coronavirus outbreak under control after being an early epicenter in the country, are now seeing a worrying rise in infections. → https://is.gd/6HwLOr09:34
BrainstormUpdates for US: +1678 cases (now 9.2 million), +9 deaths (now 234186) since 4 hours ago09:38
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Ashish Jha on Covid-19, pandemic fatigue, and when we’re getting back to normal: >@ashishkjha is particularly helpful at cutting through the noise about the Covid-19 pandemic. So he joined STAT's podcast, "The Readout LOUD," to explain what's happening now. → https://is.gd/1ud7JH09:43
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: The ever-expanding role of the chief medical officer: The pandemic has driven home the message that, in one sense or another, every company is now in the business of health. → https://is.gd/IVLT5k09:52
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: The challenge of winter during COVID-19 for poor families: This winter will present the unprecedented public health challenge of having to face the COVID-19 pandemic and the flu season at the same time. The colder months bring challenges for less affluent households to heat their homes adequately, thus increasing their exposure to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ki4ZnL10:10
BrainstormUpdates for US: +549 cases (now 9.2 million), +15 deaths (now 234201) since 51 minutes ago10:23
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Millions more face virus restrictions in northern England: Millions more people in northern England face stricter coronavirus rules next week, the government said Friday as it perseveres with a localised response to surging case rates. → https://is.gd/oRZYqv11:31
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid-19: Ministers striving to avoid blanket rules - Raab: It comes amid calls from some scientists to introduce a strict national lockdown in England. → https://is.gd/MzbMNi12:07
BrainstormUpdates for US: +1083 cases (now 9.2 million), +6 deaths (now 234207) since an hour ago12:08
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +9207 cases (now 154251), +29 deaths (now 2229) since 21 hours ago12:24
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US election: Trump, Biden face off in Florida over coronavirus’ → https://is.gd/62hIeM12:26
BrainstormNew from The Atlantic: The Best Time to Get COVID-19: During the first COVID-19 surge of the spring, the mantra was “Flatten to curve”—to buy time, using every tool available. → https://is.gd/5XwOFT12:35
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: More infections than reported: New study demonstrates importance of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 antibody screenings: A new study lead by Helmholtz Zentrum München indicates a six-fold higher SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate among children in Bavaria, Germany, than reported cases. This highlights the value of population-based antibody [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RX4wgZ12:44
BrainstormUpdates for US: +239 cases (now 9.2 million), +11 deaths (now 234218) since an hour ago — Switzerland: +3 deaths (now 2232) since an hour ago13:39
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: As coronavirus surges again, researchers find mortality rates are highest in rural counties: In parts of the country where COVID-19 is surging, residents of rural counties are dying from coronavirus at higher rates than those in urban areas, according to a new health policy brief by the University of Cincinnati. → https://is.gd/i3srGw14:06
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Vaccination: Indonesia is set to become the hub for Chinese vaccines in Southeast Asia. How does the country benefit? → https://is.gd/Q1wAVU14:16
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: 'Very confident': NYC hospitals prepare for virus resurgence: Like battle-hardened veterans, New York City hospitals and nursing homes are bracing for a potential resurgence of coronavirus patients, drawing on lessons learned in the spring when the outbreak brought the nation's largest city to its knees. → https://is.gd/NV3SXy14:25
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Aged care isn't working, but we can create neighborhoods to support healthy ageing in place: In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has exposed issues and inequities across society. How we plan for aging populations and older people is one critical  issue that has been neglected for decades. Fresher-faced youth and families have [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/hMPDZO14:34
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +7941 cases (now 341374), +87 deaths (now 7345) since 8 hours ago — US: +1644 cases (now 9.2 million), +7 deaths (now 234225) since an hour ago14:39
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Health: COVID-19 slashed healthcare use by more than one-third across the globe—but the news isn't all bad → https://is.gd/tBxFww14:43
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Harnessing a forgotten plague: Mathematical models suggest vaccine control of TB in hard hit countries: It has been a pandemic since at least biblical times, and unless effective strategies harness the global tuberculosis scourge, the disease will remain problematic and pervasive—an unending plague throughout many regions of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/l266II14:52
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 30 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/xueDIO15:01
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Testing Sewage Can Provide an Early Warning of COVID-19 Outbreaks (82 votes) | https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/testing-sewage-can-provide-an-early-warning-of-covid-19-outbreaks | https://redd.it/jkr51215:10
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): 'Remain vigilant' — Dr. Scott Gottlieb urges people not to throw away months of Covid sacrifice → https://is.gd/ESx7O315:20
BrainstormUpdates for US: +1190 cases (now 9.2 million), +11 deaths (now 234236) since 50 minutes ago — Switzerland: +10 deaths (now 2242) since an hour ago15:24
BrainstormUpdates for US: +524 cases (now 9.2 million), +8 deaths (now 234244) since 22 minutes ago15:39
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: US logs nearly 90,000 new coronavirus cases Thursday, 1 new case per second → https://is.gd/ECw7tY15:48
BrainstormUpdates for US: +754 cases (now 9.2 million), +18 deaths (now 234262) since 22 minutes ago — Switzerland: +7 deaths (now 2249) since 37 minutes ago15:54
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: How Planet Fitness could survive Covid-19 while other gyms go bankrupt: Gyms were forced to shut down in March 2020 to try to curb the spread of Covid-19, crippling the fitness industry, which is a $32 billion market in the U.S. → https://is.gd/JXVOP315:57
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Resourcing primary care to tackle covid-19: cooperation, not competition: Coombes is absolutely right to point out that “GPs are in pole position to care for those who survive initial infection but are left with longlasting mental and physical effects” of covid-19.1 This... → https://is.gd/1atmJx16:05
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2759 cases (now 9.2 million), +88 deaths (now 234350) since 39 minutes ago16:25
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Durable SARS-CoV-2 B cell immunity after mild or severe disease (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.28.20220996v1 | https://redd.it/jkw3dp16:34
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Oxford to trial new COVID-19 test for individuals without symptoms: The University of Oxford will take part in a new pilot scheme to assess the use of Lateral Flow Tests (LFTs), a new COVID-19 test designed to identify asymptomatic individuals with the virus. → https://is.gd/nFejnA16:42
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Parisians flee, sidewalks empty as France enters lockdown: Parisians fleeing for the countryside jammed the roads ahead of France's lockdown to slow the spread of resurgent coronavirus infections, and there was only a sprinkling of people hurrying along city sidewalks Friday as the nationwide restrictions went into effect. → https://is.gd/p7i64416:51
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Regeneron suspends COVID-19 antibody trial among sickest patients: US biotech firm Regeneron on Friday said it was suspending enrollment for a study of its COVID-19 antibody treatment among the sickest patients who require high-flow oxygen or are on ventilators. → https://is.gd/UJTKNj17:00
BrainstormUpdates for US: +3371 cases (now 9.2 million), +55 deaths (now 234405) since 47 minutes ago — Canada: +801 cases (now 230547), +17 deaths (now 10100) since 47 minutes ago17:05
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Peru facing rural COVID-19 disaster: A disaster is looming in Peru caused by COVID-19 as thousands return to their rural homes where there are limited resources and facilities, according to research carried out at the University of St Andrews. → https://is.gd/xQRey517:09
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Coronavirus: Europe still virus epicentre this week: The number of people infected by the coronavirus continued to surge in Europe over the past week, keeping the continent at the epicentre of the pandemic. → https://is.gd/KX6xYt17:19
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +31079 cases (now 647674), +199 deaths (now 38321) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +22847 cases (now 989745), +274 deaths (now 46229) since 10 hours ago — US: +4456 cases (now 9.2 million), +39 deaths (now 234444) since 17 minutes ago17:20
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: U.S. records more than 90,000 Covid-19 cases in one day for the first time The record also came after the U.S. logged more than 9 million total Covid-19 cases Thursday, only hours after reporting a single-day record crossing 80,000 cases for the first time. → https://is.gd/PqTxHS17:28
BrainstormUpdates for US: +6450 cases (now 9.2 million), +55 deaths (now 234499) since 16 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +1565 cases (now 244045), +16 deaths (now 5934) since 23 hours ago17:35
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Supersreaders Spur Record New U.S. COVID Cases: The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center reported that 88,521 new coronavirus cases were recorded Thursday in the United States -- the most in a single day since the start of the pandemic. → https://is.gd/1bmWRd17:37
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +25595 cases (now 1.3 million), +239 deaths (now 35878) since 22 hours ago — US: +4044 cases (now 9.2 million), +78 deaths (now 234577) since 48 minutes ago18:20
Jigsy%cases UK18:22
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 989745 confirmed cases (1.5% of the population) and 46229 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of an hour ago. 33.5 million tests were performed (3.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.18:22
JigsyWell, the UK should reach 1,000,000 by tomorrow?18:22
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show → https://is.gd/iT00mx18:23
metreojigsy, Top ten infected countries today: Italy: #1 (31,084) USA: #2 (27,196) Spain: #3 (25,595) UK: #4 (24,405) Belgium: #5 (23,921) Poland: #6 (21,629) Russia: #7 (18,283) Germany: #8 (14,794) The Netherlands: #9 (11,119) Switzerland: #10 (9,207)18:25
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Italians snap up baby-milk supplements after virus claim: Italian pharmacists are facing a huge upsurge in demand for a niche product usually marketed as an immune system booster for babies—weeks after a viral video suggested it could protect against coronavirus. → https://is.gd/PkZQQp18:32
metreoThere has been hoarding reported throughout the US as well18:33
metreohttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Hits-5-Month-Lows-As-COVID-Cases-Surge.html18:33
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2178 cases (now 9.2 million), +21 deaths (now 234598) since 16 minutes ago18:35
BrainstormNew from New Scientist: Covid-19 news: UK government under pressure to impose England lockdown: The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic → https://is.gd/oC8Ccw19:08
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Cruise stocks rise as CDC eases Covid sailing restrictions on industry → https://is.gd/S7CG6B19:17
BrainstormUpdates for US: +3785 cases (now 9.2 million) since 49 minutes ago19:20
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: A new coronavirus variant is seen spreading across Europe, research says: A new variant of the coronavirus, identified as 20A.EU1 by researchers from Switzerland and Spain, was first observed in Spain in June. → https://is.gd/fwqj3919:26
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Lies Spread on Social Media Hamper Vaccinations: Every 1 point increase in the effort to discredit vaccines is linked to an average 2% drop in annual vaccine coverage around the world, and a 15% increase in negative tweets about vaccination, researchers found. → https://is.gd/wQTBB319:45
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Shorter incubation period is associated with severe disease progression in patients with COVID-19 (81 votes) | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21505594.2020.1836894 | https://redd.it/jkykmh19:47
tinwhiskersYou have to start wondering if inoculation using a similar method as cow pox isn't going to be a good way to go. A very low dose in a way that avoids the throat and lungs. Dose seems to be pretty important for how severe the disease is.19:51
tinwhiskersif it's spreading like wildfire in your country that may be safer than risking catching a high dose from droplets or aerosols.19:52
LjLthis thread... https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322237884569714688 such confusion over a thing that really should be (and is) easily determinable from data/graphs... but it doesn't help that on twitter everything comes with not-enough-context, and confusion ensues20:08
LjLtinwhisker, that sounds like a very dangerous thing to do, we've seen it affects other organs too and in ways we're not yet sure of. wearing masks is already a way to likely end up with a smaller does (if it's so widespread where one is that avoiding it becomes less and less likely) without actively doing potential harm...20:09
DocScrutinizer05%tr <de Er rechnet mit ersten Wirksamkeitsdaten für Anfang November. "Wir sind optimistisch", sagte Sahin und fügte hinzu, dass bei positiven Daten Mitte November ein Antrag auf Notfallgenehmigung bei der US-amerikanischen Food and Drug Administration (FDA) eingereicht werden könnte20:12
BrainstormDocScrutinizer05, German to English: He expects the first effectiveness data for the beginning of November. "We are optimistic," said Sahin, adding that if the data is positive, an application for emergency approval could be filed with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in mid-November (MyMemory) [... want %more?]20:13
DocScrutinizer05%title https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/biontech-chef-will-in-zwei-wochen-zulassung-fuer-impfstoff-beantragen-a-e93de7ea-165b-42e0-af58-150ebdc5d0bb20:14
BrainstormDocScrutinizer05: From www.spiegel.de: Corona: Biontech-Chef plant, in zwei Wochen Zulassung für Impfstoff zu beantragen - DER SPIEGEL20:14
BrainstormUpdates for US: +11080 cases (now 9.3 million), +160 deaths (now 234758) since an hour ago — Canada: +347 cases (now 230894), +11 deaths (now 10111) since 3 hours ago20:21
tinwhiskerLjL: I agree. It's madness really, but if it's looking likely you're going to get it anyway, and "long covid" is a risk no matter how you get it, but cardio vascular failure is more likely with airborne infection then you have to start weighing up options. I'm not suggesting anyone is at that point and I'm only 10% serious, but it may be something to consider if things continue to degrade.20:21
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Belgium imposes 'more severe' lockdown rules: Belgium, the country with by some measures the world's worst coronavirus outbreak, will impose tighter lockdown rules from Monday, closing non-essential businesses and restricting household visits. → https://is.gd/8nG1Js20:22
tinwhiskerlose dose by inoculated scratch may be safer than low dose by mask.20:22
tinwhiskers/lose/low/20:23
tinwhiskerlet's hope we have a vaccine widely available before things deteriorate to that point but it's rapidly getting worse in some places.20:26
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: First international, Chinese expert meeting on virus origin: WHO: The World Health Organization said Friday that international experts had held their first meeting, albeit virtually, with their Chinese counterparts in order to investigate the animal origins of the novel coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/Um3xov20:32
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Idaho lieutenant governor appears in video that claims pandemic ‘may or may not be occurring’ (10099 votes) | https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/30/idaho-covid-lieutenant-governor/ | https://redd.it/jkvhl120:35
DocScrutinizer05one thing's for sure: next 4 weeks get "interesting"20:40
rmonten[m]DocScrutinizer05: does that mean they have phase 3 data?20:47
DocScrutinizer05they hope for efficiency data on monday. No idea if that's "phase 3" but it is the result from phase2/3 that they hope for21:01
DocScrutinizer05might be "US level emergency approval" not fit for EU regulations yet. I don't know21:02
DocScrutinizer05I'm pretty sure anyway that it's way better evaluated than sputnik-V21:05
BrainstormUpdates for US: +5820 cases (now 9.3 million), +16 deaths (now 234774) since 48 minutes ago — Canada: +269 cases (now 231163), +1 deaths (now 10112) since 46 minutes ago21:06
DocScrutinizer05and I'm also sure there has been no regular phase3 testing as this takes years21:06
rmonten[m]Right, so they might combine efficiency data from phase 1/2 with preliminary data for phase 3 then?21:08
DocScrutinizer05aiui they merge phase2 and phase3 and expedite it by lowering the requirements21:08
rmonten[m]Seems like a good strategy to be the first to apply for permission, lot's of pressure on politicians to act asap21:08
BrainstormNew from PLOS ONE: Serum miRNAs associated with tumor-promoting cytokines in non-small cell lung cancer: by Pichitpon Chaniad, Keson Trakunran, Sarayut Lucien Geater, Warangkana Keeratichananont, Paramee Thongsuksai, Pritsana Raungrut Tumor-promoting cytokines are a cause of tumor progression; therefore, identifying key regulatory microRNAs (miRNAs) [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/P5hiz921:08
xrogaanSeveral family members got the virus. However whether they truly have it is a bit hazy. The testing facilities is unable to cope with the amount of people getting sick. As such, GP can declare somebody to have contracted SARS-COV2 if the patient shows enough symptoms.21:09
rmonten[m]but I thought WHO wanted "proof" of 50% efficacy, right? Do you think they'll be able to show anything like that with a reasonable p value?21:09
DocScrutinizer05then they run an extended "productive phase3"21:10
DocScrutinizer05after emergency approval21:10
rmonten[m]xrogaan: I'm sorry to hear that. I hope they're not too sick and recover quickly!21:10
rmonten[m]They can't even test people with symptoms?21:11
DocScrutinizer05labs collapse under the load21:12
rmonten[m]DocScrutinizer05: yeah that makes sense, the work isn't done. 21:12
xrogaanMy niece got it, pretty bad apparently. My sister's and her fiancé have it. Fiancé is sick, sister's following. Those two idiots went to my father house less than a week ago, didn't weak masks.21:12
DocScrutinizer05"productive phase3" probably means you already vaccinate those who need it most and you closely monitor the results21:13
xrogaanThat's how it spread, people not taking it seriously and not taking precautions.21:13
rmonten[m]DocScrutinizer05: but can they track that many people? 30k/60k is nice and all but now we're talking about millions probably21:14
rmonten[m]xrogaan: yes, for some weird psychological reason we all think family won't be infected so it's way harder to wear masks and keep distance around them.21:14
DocScrutinizer05there won'z be millions of vaccinations next few weeks or months, I suppose21:14
xrogaanEven if there were vaccinations shots available, you'd need the logistic to vaccinate people.21:15
xrogaanMeaning fridges.21:15
rmonten[m]surely after half a year of preparation and with the existing infrastructure in the US/EU we can vaccinate a million people in a month?21:16
DocScrutinizer05I guess they will 'outsource' a lot of monitoring of vaccinated medical personal to self-monitoring. At least that's what I would do21:16
rmonten[m](this may be me with my naive optimism again)21:17
DocScrutinizer05yeah, what xrogaan says - many of those vaccines need to get stored at -170°C or somesuch21:17
DocScrutinizer05I honestly don't know. A million per month is probably possible21:18
xrogaanso heh, I'll see this week if I got infected.21:18
DocScrutinizer05to vaccinate. No idea about monitoring21:18
rmonten[m]Right but the biontech one needs just -70 I though21:18
rmonten[m]*thought21:18
rmonten[m](getting that from Derek Lowe's blog post of a couple of weeks ago)21:19
DocScrutinizer05sorry I don't know21:19
DocScrutinizer05anyway the Doc Smith office doesn't have that either, nor the pharmacy at your corner21:20
rmonten[m]I mean, -70 is still a lot! Don't get me wrong, but it's also worth a lot to roll it out asap, so I imagine lots of money available for it21:20
DocScrutinizer05sure21:20
DocScrutinizer05vaccination plans are a science of its own21:21
BrainstormUpdates for France: +26673 cases (now 1.3 million), +256 deaths (now 36276) since 14 hours ago — US: +10705 cases (now 9.3 million), +30 deaths (now 234804) since 17 minutes ago21:21
rmonten[m]Maybe it's a good idea to turn the drive-through testing sites to drive-through vaccination sites (when applicable)21:21
rmonten[m]yeah, makes sense21:22
DocScrutinizer05you might try to virtually compartmentalize the virus into groups, by vaccinating the linking persons between those groups, etc pp21:22
xrogaanIt'll probably take the good part of a year to vaccinate everybody, if not more.21:23
DocScrutinizer05I learned a bit about virology last 12 months, I have pretty much no idea about vaccination planning21:23
xrogaanthere is a TWIv episode that explain the difficulties.21:24
DocScrutinizer05one year seems reasonable. BUT... new ibfection counts will dwindle long before that21:24
DocScrutinizer05buzzword herd immunity and R_eff21:25
de-factoi guess first in line would be high contact rate susceptible and workers in high risk environment such as medical personal or elderly care home personal and inhabitants21:25
rmonten[m]Right, a friend of mine used to do research on network theory. He told me some of these things (years ago so not applied to covid) and indeed it seemed to be a lot more powerful to vaccinate "hubs" first21:25
rmonten[m]meaning people who are in contact with lots of people21:25
DocScrutinizer05yes, exactly21:26
de-factotargeting the high contact rate people would give the most R_eff for each vaccination dose21:26
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: fair guess21:26
rmonten[m]in theory very similar to resilience of internet grids and spreading of ideas, I thought it was very interesting21:27
de-factolets hope infectiousness status is mitigated as well as severe disease progressions21:30
DocScrutinizer05btw it seems to me this is first time I know og that I heard a correct info from Trump's limps - just saying as I bashed him for "we will have a vaccine within weeks"21:36
DocScrutinizer05</politics>21:36
DocScrutinizer05lips*21:37
de-factoyeah lets wait for it and its results, before that i wont get excited about it21:37
DocScrutinizer05yes, very reasonable approach21:37
DocScrutinizer05just some good news to share that there's real hope - we got so few good news so far21:39
de-factohonestly i would even go so far to assume vaccines wont rescue us until they do, e.g. assume we will have to live with the virus and find ways to control it21:39
DocScrutinizer05that's a fundamental truth anyway21:40
DocScrutinizer05no vaccine will change that21:40
rmonten[m]Well another option would have been that we'd find an effective treatment, but that search has been nothing but disappointments21:43
de-factobut of course its interesting to follow the developments and also read into every detail of them, i think its crucial that everyone is reached by fully transparent and high quality digestible information in order to be able to find a well informed decision21:43
DocScrutinizer05an end of the annoying lack of answers to the ubiquitous question >>how long until... $corona-related-issue<< finally seems in vicinity21:46
ryoumahttps://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-mental-health-revolution/202010/halloween-nightmare-the-long-hauler-tragedy21:56
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, what do you think, is there possibly a first shy sign of decline in R_eff for Germany or is it too early still?21:59
DocScrutinizer05I don't see any yet21:59
de-facto$tr <de Die berichteten R-Werte lagen seit Anfang Oktober stabil deutlich über 1. Seit Anfang22:00
de-factodieser Woche ist ein leichter Abwärtstrend zu verzeichnen.22:00
de-factolol fail22:00
xrogaande-facto: Spread is mostly community driven, especially when people don't pay enough attention.22:00
DocScrutinizer05nothing more than a hickup22:00
de-facto%tr <de RKI "Die berichteten R-Werte lagen seit Anfang Oktober stabil deutlich über 1. Seit Anfang dieser Woche ist ein leichter Abwärtstrend zu verzeichnen."22:00
Brainstormde-facto, German to English: RKI "The reported R-values have been stable well above 1 since the beginning of October. There has been a slight downward trend since the beginning of this week." (MyMemory) [... want %more?]22:01
xrogaanGet a group of fifty with one contagious individual, like a burial, and boom.22:01
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, yeah i think too it may be too early to tell22:01
xrogaanI'm currently listening to the latest TWIV. There is a story of a immuno-suppressed man who had the same virus changes within his body and wreak havok.22:02
xrogaanHe got over the disease at one point, but he still got sick afterward.22:03
DocScrutinizer05https://i.imgur.com/fENlhHY.png http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm  my stats are not really swift. nothing "interesting" in there. Any trend I might notice from pattern of raw incidences (pink) is just within static noise22:03
xrogaanAnd on the point of vaccines: it's not a magic bullet. All it does is to raise the immunity of the herd. Meaning that if you get enough people vaccinated, the disease will have a harder time spreading to the people who are not immune. It's not a inherent protection though.22:04
xrogaanAnd it protects you so long the pathogen doesn't change.22:05
xrogaan(or doesn't change too much)22:05
DocScrutinizer05yep22:05
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, probably they mean this here https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/Nowcasting_Zahlen_csv.csv?__blob=publicationFile22:06
BrainstormUpdates for US: +5285 cases (now 9.3 million), +39 deaths (now 234843) since 47 minutes ago — Canada: +370 cases (now 231533), +6 deaths (now 10118) since an hour ago22:06
xrogaanAnd so, what we're worried about is an enhanced disease developing in vaccinated people.22:08
xrogaanWhich is why we have to wait and see.22:10
ryoumafwiw while you seem to be referring to mutations, something different has been speculated (possibly non-mainstream; iceland is typically used as an example) to have occurred with the polio vaccine.  specifically, out of (some number, just guessing for example's sake) 23 polioviruses, vaccine(s) only covered 22, leaving one and changing viral ecology which then spread differently and unnoticed.22:13
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/gRpe4Zj https://i.imgur.com/SC5EGSJ.png22:22
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: Germany COVID-19 RKI R till 2020-10-30 - Album on Imgur22:22
ryoumawell it doesn't seem to be species (supposedly only 3 wild types, 2 eradicated) but perhaps strains or so in the speculation22:22
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, ^^22:22
de-factoyet it always falls off ant the edge, so hmm ...22:23
de-factoi did not find out how to plot date with LO, it seems to be quite limited22:28
BrainstormUpdates for US: +17510 cases (now 9.3 million), +129 deaths (now 234972) since 48 minutes ago — France: +289 deaths (now 36565) since an hour ago — Canada: +281 cases (now 231814), +2 deaths (now 10120) since 46 minutes ago22:52
BrainstormUpdates for US: +4062 cases (now 9.3 million), +26 deaths (now 234998) since 19 minutes ago23:07
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Trials of Oxford coronavirus vaccine begin in Kenya (83 votes) | https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-10-30-trials-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-begin-kenya | https://redd.it/jl0n3323:18
ryoumaswing states worst.  also eu has crossed us and looking much worse for cases.23:21
BrainstormNew from ProPublica: ProPublica Responds to the Center for Voter Information: by Ryan McCarthy ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up for ProPublica’s User’s Guide to Democracy , a series of personalized emails that help you understand the upcoming election, from who’s on your ballot to how to cast your [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YVIxzK23:25
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2603 cases (now 9.3 million), +94 deaths (now 235092) since 34 minutes ago23:37

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