| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: White House coronavirus adviser Dr Birx boycotting Covid task force over misinformation → https://is.gd/jDQGSK | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| rpifan | hi | 00:10 |
| dTal | hello | 00:12 |
| rpifan | is this the EU covid chan lol | 00:12 |
| dTal | rpifan I always wondered what rpi you're a fan of | 00:12 |
| rpifan | only one rpi | 00:12 |
| dTal | is it raspberry pi, or Rennselaer Polytechnic Institute? | 00:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: >>how to plot date with LO<< you need a col (row) with dates, format "date", fill in start date then pull range | 00:14 |
| rpifan | pi | 00:15 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, yeah it does not parse dates correctly it seems, set format to date and correct syntax etc, yet its offtopic anyhow | 00:16 |
| ryouma | ,lo | 00:38 |
| LjL | Almost 9000 just in Lombardy today... Practically a third of Italy's positives | 00:39 |
| LjL | (Testing comparable to previous days) | 00:39 |
| ryouma | does this suggest new victims or loss of immunity? | 00:40 |
| ryouma | i guess new victims if anythning | 00:40 |
| LjL | And this whole thing where they want GPs to give people antigen tests is ridiculous, they would need resources (separate space for covid tests from normal patients, ability to sanitize the whole environment) they don't have, hell they don't even have PPEs beyond the same shitty mask I get for 50 cents | 00:41 |
| LjL | ryouma: I am assuming the vast majority are new | 00:41 |
| ghost_rider[m] | If I'm not wrong in Azores few people that was already negative are again positive. | 00:41 |
| LjL | Despite everything, antibodies were found in only 7% or so of Lombard's after the first wave | 00:41 |
| LjL | Although with the current pace, were going at 0.1% per day in Milan, growing quickly, so even if it weren't growing, in just 10 days you add another percent | 00:42 |
| LjL | When I think like that I kinda start thinking again that we'll inevitably get it | 00:43 |
| metreo | the vaccines will start soon | 00:43 |
| metreo | sometime this winter | 00:43 |
| LjL | ghost_rider[m]: I don't know about the Azores, but I know there are some cases. Not many verified cases yet though (but verification is difficult, you need to sequence both viruses) | 00:43 |
| ghost_rider[m] | I keep thinking is a question of time to get itLjL | 00:43 |
| ghost_rider[m] | LjL: yha, | 00:44 |
| LjL | metreo: the vaccine will *start* sometime this winter, but start being the keyword... And also, with the pace it's growing here, it all depends on what "sometime" is. If it comes in December with the current growth, we'll already all have it | 00:45 |
| metreo | even if only health care workers are vaccinated that will help boost ICU capacity | 00:46 |
| LjL | ghost_rider[m]: there is also evidence that immunity wanes (from the UK) so I suspect we'll eventually learn reinfection is pretty common and just seems rare for now because we can't verify it most of the time | 00:46 |
| LjL | But it's just my impression | 00:46 |
| metreo | coronavirus is literally a common cold, there has never been a vaccine for that.... | 00:46 |
| ryouma | musk has entered the room | 00:47 |
| LjL | metreo: in some places healthcare workers are being told to go to work even if they already have COVID as long as they are asymptomatic :/ | 00:47 |
| LjL | It's not "literally" a common cold | 00:47 |
| metreo | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus | 00:48 |
| LjL | Most common colds are not caused by coronaviruses, and most coronaviruses are not common cold viruses. The main ones in humans are | 00:48 |
| LjL | Oh geez | 00:48 |
| metreo | "Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARS, MERS, and COVID-19." | 00:48 |
| metreo | It's all related | 00:48 |
| LjL | Yes it's related | 00:48 |
| LjL | That's a far cry from saying it's literally a common cold | 00:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: keep in mind (just for scientific correfctness) that with increasing percentage of infected (and recovered) people, the R_eff sinks and finally incidences taper off to a few dozen per day when reaching herd immunity level | 00:48 |
| LjL | That is wrong and when someone who's wrong just throws a wp article at me I get a little annoyed | 00:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | IOW when 50% caught it, the other 50% may take quite a while to catch it too | 00:49 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05: well, that means instead of "we'll certainly get it" it's more like "we'll get it at the toss of a coin" ;( | 00:49 |
| LjL | Right | 00:50 |
| LjL | Marginally better I guess | 00:50 |
| de-facto | nope herd immunity is the point where it becomes endemic R=1 with constant incidence | 00:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | as I said, just for correctness, not that it helps mitigate the perspective | 00:50 |
| metreo | Not to derail you here de-facto but herd immunity for this has been disproven | 00:51 |
| LjL | de-facto: I assume it's asymptotic | 00:51 |
| LjL | No it hasn't | 00:51 |
| LjL | Sigh | 00:51 |
| metreo | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4 | 00:51 |
| LjL | Herd immunity *as a strategy without a vaccine* is asinine | 00:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: ok I been slightly wrong, it tapers off when _exceeding_ percentage of herd immunity | 00:51 |
| LjL | But that doesn't mean the concept of herd immunity isn't a thing for this disease | 00:51 |
| de-facto | yes exactly | 00:52 |
| LjL | And I posted that fucking article and added it to the links list | 00:52 |
| LjL | So you go ahead and post it back at me | 00:52 |
| LjL | Without having understood the nuance of what you said or lack thereof | 00:52 |
| LjL | Think longer before you type please | 00:52 |
| ghost_rider[m] | I'm not from this field, I was thinking humanity was more developed in genetics / health / etc. :/ | 00:54 |
| LjL | ghost_rider[m]: we are not developed in the basics of common sense of handling things. The science is racing but governments have been failing at obvious foresight | 00:55 |
| ghost_rider[m] | I mean, I was thinking this kind of problems wold be easy to solve. | 00:55 |
| ryouma | if it were developed in politics including citizen participation it would be less of an issue that it is not that advanced | 00:55 |
| LjL | Obvious for most of the people in here at least, clearly not for them | 00:55 |
| de-facto | removing a part p from the susceptible s = 1 - p and assuming the reproduction reduces by that factor for an endemic threshold R s = R (1 -p) = 1 yields 1 - p = 1 / R hence p = 1 - 1 / R = (R - 1) / R yet that is assuming p does not expire | 00:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | metreo: sars-cov2 has been proven to mutate very slowly compared to your "common cold" | 00:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I think we can assume it doesn't expire, for at least a few months | 01:02 |
| de-facto | "But sequencing data suggest that coronaviruses change more slowly than most other RNA viruses, probably because of a ‘proofreading’ enzyme that corrects potentially fatal copying mistakes. A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV, says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the Universi | 01:04 |
| de-facto | ty of Basel, Switzerland." | 01:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I even think, usually for almost a year at least as that's how long we know sars-cov2 and we would have heard of >>massive drop of immunity found after 10 months in 90% of sars-cov2 reconvalescents<< | 01:05 |
| ryouma | reconvalescents? | 01:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I found reconvalescence in my dictionary so I thought this (latin?) term for the reconvalescent individual must exist in english too? | 01:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | recovered persons | 01:11 |
| metreo | convalescent is english | 01:12 |
| metreo | it means care home or facility | 01:12 |
| metreo | usually related to nuns iirc | 01:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | prolly also a tad incorrect usage since you're out of reconvalescence when you're completely recovered | 01:12 |
| metreo | my Aunt is a nun and we refer to where she works as a convalescent | 01:13 |
| metreo | I've never heard of a reconvalescent | 01:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | my dict has >>Rekonvaleszenz {f}; Genesung {f}; Erholung {f} [med.] convalescence; reconvalescence<< | 01:14 |
| metreo | that's just in Canada though it could be different elsewhere | 01:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Chambers%27s_Twentieth_Century_Dictionary_1908/Rave_Reed >>Reconvalescence, rē-kon-val-es′ens, n. restoration to health. << | 01:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | funny enough https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Search?search=reconvalescence&go=Go&ns0=1 only finds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Switzerland | 01:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | prolly an obsolete term in english | 01:19 |
| ghost_rider[m] | DocScrutinizer05: valid in my language, a mutation of Latin | 01:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: U.S. only at 'the beginning of the steep part' of the coronavirus pandemic, Dr. Scott Gottlieb says: Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that the United States is only "at the beginning of the steep part of the epidemic" as the number of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations across the country break grim records. → https://is.gd/XYOkmT | 01:23 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Brainstorm: the only country breaking records ? | 01:25 |
| ghost_rider[m] | s/country/corporation/g | 01:25 |
| ryouma | the term i am familiar with is convalescence, meaning period of getting better. the re- was new to me. --- 17:19 <DocScrutinizer05> prolly an obsolete term in english | 01:30 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Italy > 30k, Spain > 25k ... That's something... And Africa ? How they will handle there ? | 01:32 |
| ryouma | if us is less organized than eu yet eu is steep now, it suggests the possibility that the us will be even worse at some point | 01:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | very loosely related sidenote: I was aware of, but didn't actively think in terms of "immunity vs sterile immunity". Not all vaccines mean you don't get infected at all, so the virus doesn't replicate at all once you catch it. "normal" immunity only means you don't develop symptoms | 01:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | seems most people take "immunity" for "sterile immunity" | 01:36 |
| ryouma | immunity can still be contagious? O.o | 01:37 |
| ryouma | can immunity still be contagious? O.o | 01:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's largely unclear yet if any of the vaccines in development are causing sterile immunity | 01:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ryouma: well, that's a question of the term's definition | 01:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the virus replicating a little until it gets killed for good by your immune system doesn't automatically mean you can spread the virus during that period of time. It however also doesn't rule it out | 01:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | those are the tiny but significant details getting evaluated during phase3 | 01:41 |
| metreo | ghost_rider: Top ten infected countries today: USA: #1 (101,024) France: #2 (49,215) India: #3 (48,120) Italy: #4 (31,084) Spain: #5 (25,595) UK: #6 (24,405) Belgium: #7 (23,921) Brazil: #8 (23,126) Poland: #9 (21,629) Germany: #10 (19,367) | 01:41 |
| ghost_rider[m] | metreo: cool, so some people can use it for political reasons | 01:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | last I heard was: it's a tad difficult to bring the immune response to the nasal mucous membrane when the vaccine gets applied hypodermically | 01:43 |
| ryouma | are there nasal vaccines? | 01:44 |
| ryouma | or inhaled? | 01:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's where sprays to inhale come in, they bring the vaccine directly to mucous membrane | 01:44 |
| LjL | booo i thought i still had some cetirizine around to give it another try for calming/sleeping potential but apparently not | 01:45 |
| LjL | ryouma, there are nasal flu vaccines, i think they're sort of popular now | 01:45 |
| LjL | ryouma, i believe some of the covid vaccines in development are also nasal sprays | 01:45 |
| LjL | uhm i'm not sure if it's just me but it looks like Brainstorm has posted unusually little stuff today | 01:48 |
| LjL | i guess i can check | 01:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, some are, using a "trojan horse" vector virus. They are far from entering phase 2 yet | 01:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | afai | 01:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | k | 01:49 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, i haven't followed them, but they could be an interesting line of defense if it turns out that just having antibodies in the blood doesn't really stop the upper respiratory part of the infection (which may make you healthy-ish but still infectious) | 01:50 |
| ryouma | what about lungs? | 01:50 |
| LjL | if "blood vaccines" don't protect lungs then we're in trouble and a doubt a nasal spray would change much ;( | 01:51 |
| ryouma | i guess lungs get lots of blood by design | 01:52 |
| ryouma | though i have learned that blood at different locations can be different (and of course lung blood is a different circulation mechanism) | 01:52 |
| LjL | ryouma, well it's the place where blood exchanges with air so although i don't know any details i assume there is a barrier of some kind to pathogens, which could also mean a barrier of some kind to immune defenses | 01:54 |
| metreo | there are little hairs or scilia I think | 01:54 |
| LjL | but i'm just being optimistic that at least the vaccines in more advanced stages have been tested on animals enough they create immunity in the lungs! | 01:54 |
| metreo | the issue with the lings is there is lots of tiny pockets which can fill with phlem | 01:55 |
| metreo | lungs* | 01:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: >>but they could be an interesting line..<< absolutely, for all of your statement | 01:55 |
| ryouma | yeah, dunno | 01:56 |
| LjL | nice, "you're essentially right, but, here, get downvoted" (paraphrase) https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/jkm94e/spain_enters_sixmonth_state_of_emergency_to/gajysqg/ | 01:57 |
| LjL | eh | 01:57 |
| LjL | i meant to change the links to np. not old. ;( | 01:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: the labs developing those sprays are claiming exactly this goal you mentioned | 01:57 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, do you know how they're progressing? i know they exist but i haven't really followed | 01:58 |
| LjL | "I haven't really followed" is becoming a recurring line of mine... it may be good to unplug for a while but now it's about to hit us very hard and i am not really up to speed with information... maybe it doesn't matter anyway :\ | 01:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I heard today of an university project in germany that doesn't even get funded by government - >>low priority<< idiots | 01:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ho figure how easy it would be to just deploy nasal spray via all phafrmacies | 02:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | go* | 02:01 |
| ghost_rider[m] | EU have billion dollars agreement's with specific suppliers. | 02:01 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Take this as example; "The first shipment of vaccines should arrive in December or January, and Hungary will be able to “declare victory over the pandemic” by next spring, Orban said Friday in a radio interview." | 02:01 |
| ghost_rider[m] | EU said to citing lack of quality standards | 02:02 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Yet "Johnson & Johnson had paused its trials in mid-October, citing an “unexplained illness” in one of the participants. AstraZeneca had also halted their trials over a UK volunteer experiencing complications, but restarted them even after a Brazilian volunteer died on October 20." | 02:03 |
| ghost_rider[m] | *said no | 02:03 |
| metreo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF0gHl8VBzg | 02:04 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Clearly Gov's are in some psychopathic state not allowing a global real united effort and thinking some will make money out of it | 02:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | luckily scientists won't join that "game" | 02:06 |
| LjL | maybe | 02:07 |
| LjL | AstraZeneca seemed part of a little game in the US to my eyes | 02:07 |
| LjL | the trial was on hold for longer than in the UK, then they made an agreement for another things they're developing (a monoclonal antibody), got $500 million for it from the US government, and then their trial also restartted | 02:08 |
| ghost_rider[m] | DocScrutinizer05: I don't think they are even allowed to talk what they can or not do/share. | 02:10 |
| ghost_rider[m] | They think this is a race to make the first atomic bomb and make billions in the precess. And don't forget the ego... | 02:12 |
| metreo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IYHZX8kWpM | 02:17 |
| dTal | well it might well be | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +11669 cases (now 9.3 million), +64 deaths (now 235156) since 2 hours ago — Canada: +867 cases (now 232681), +22 deaths (now 10126) since 3 hours ago — Switzerland: +28 deaths (now 2277) since 10 hours ago | 02:23 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Artificial intelligence model detects asymptomatic Covid-19 infections through cellphone-recorded coughs (82 votes) | https://news.mit.edu/2020/covid-19-cough-cellphone-detection-1029 | https://redd.it/jl76cs | 02:31 |
| LjL | that's a little scary | 03:00 |
| LjL | (also they're not asymptomatic if they're coughing) | 03:00 |
| metreo | they are compelled to cough | 03:00 |
| LjL | fair enough, maybe i should read beyond the headline | 03:01 |
| metreo | or to making a coughing sound... | 03:01 |
| metreo | there isn't much detail | 03:01 |
| LjL | the accuracy numbers they claim seem... a bit too stunning | 03:02 |
| metreo | that's typical for this kind of research | 03:02 |
| LjL | %papers asymptomatic cough | 03:02 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, 98 papers: Clinical Characteristics of 24 Asymptomatic Infections with COVID-19 Screened among Close Contacts in Nanjing, China by Zhiliang Hu et al, published on 2020-02-23 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.02.20.20025619 [... want %more?] | 03:02 |
| LjL | %papers asymptomatic cough artificial intelligence | 03:03 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Medical Imaging and Computational Image Analysis in COVID-19 Diagnosis: A Review by Shahabedin Nabavi et al, published on 2020-10-01 at [u'http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.02154v1', u'http://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.02154v1'] | 03:03 |
| LjL | no dice | 03:03 |
| metreo | how this works is they start with all the data | 03:03 |
| metreo | then they randomly split it maybe once maybe hundreds of different ways | 03:03 |
| LjL | the paper is here https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9208795 but no full text available without registering | 03:03 |
| LjL | no sorry i'm wrong, there is access | 03:04 |
| metreo | then they train a random assotrment of models against it and select the best one | 03:04 |
| metreo | assortment* | 03:04 |
| metreo | I can guarantee that none of the researchers has any indication why the selected model works better than the others | 03:05 |
| LjL | well that's okay, if it really works | 03:05 |
| LjL | i won't be picky | 03:05 |
| metreo | it works on the test data like the majority of AI research | 03:05 |
| LjL | although i'll be a bit concerned about privacy implication when this is delivered in proprietary app form, as usual | 03:05 |
| metreo | unfortunately this research rarely makes it into production | 03:06 |
| metreo | or rather "research like this" I should say | 03:06 |
| ghost_rider[m] | LjL: privacy ? What cpu and os are you using ? | 03:06 |
| LjL | oh i'm not having that debate | 03:06 |
| ghost_rider[m] | ;p | 03:07 |
| LjL | i'm using some random intel core m3 cpu and fedora, though | 03:07 |
| metreo | fedora is nice | 03:07 |
| LjL | fedora is annoying me. i have regressions on this stupid laplet every time i update | 03:07 |
| LjL | this time's good news is that my touchpad resets itself to the default settings whenever i undock the keyboard | 03:08 |
| LjL | (this thing has a separable keyboard+touchpad) | 03:08 |
| LjL | so every time i disconnect it even by moving it a bit too abruptly, i need to re-enable tap-to-click and a decent speed | 03:08 |
| LjL | and my touchscreen doesn't even work at all unless i suspend the computer first, but it *used* to | 03:09 |
| LjL | i don't know if these various issues are Fedora or GNOME to be honest, but, Fedora and GNOME are pretty tightly coupled anyway | 03:09 |
| LjL | i guess one of these days i'll upgrade to Fedora 33 in the hope it fixes some of these regressions, and learn that it adds more instead | 03:09 |
| metreo | I think GNOME is lagging lately tbh | 03:10 |
| xrogaan | is gnome a tablet environment now? | 03:11 |
| xrogaan | explain why the interface is garbage on desktop. | 03:11 |
| ghost_rider[m] | I'm away from computers for two weeks, feeling like a drug addict... I'm on a Chinese phone with Android, so... | 03:11 |
| metreo | lol | 03:11 |
| ghost_rider[m] | 😀 | 03:11 |
| metreo | I dislike GNOME as well from a personal preference | 03:12 |
| ghost_rider[m] | I exchange gnome for mate and then for spectrwm | 03:12 |
| LjL | xrogaan, it's annoying. it has been made to *look* a lot like it's a tablet interface of sorts... but since i actually have a semi-tablet... i can assure you it's horrendously bad to use *as* a tablet. i've ended up not using the touchscreen and just using the touchpad, even though i hate touchpads and like touchscreens | 03:12 |
| LjL | xrogaan, last i checked, KDE looked much more like a standard computer environment and yet had subtle but partly better support for touch | 03:13 |
| LjL | but i ditched KDE after version 3, since 4 and 5 made me rather mad | 03:13 |
| metreo | 5.20 is fresh | 03:13 |
| xrogaan | the less interface I have, the better I feel. | 03:14 |
| LjL | anyway, metreo, why would this sort of thing work on the test data but not on later real-world data? i am assuming the test data weren't part of the *training* data, that would just be cheating | 03:14 |
| ghost_rider[m] | xrogaan: #meto | 03:14 |
| LjL | #meeto | 03:14 |
| xrogaan | two o, not two e | 03:14 |
| metreo | you would think but because it's "science" they collect all the data first | 03:14 |
| xrogaan | like, "i love you too" | 03:14 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Thanks for patching that | 03:15 |
| LjL | xrogaan, groan, i'm aware, it was a jab at ghost_rider[m]'s typo | 03:15 |
| tinwhisker | xrogaan: you love them both? | 03:16 |
| metreo | this is a hot take but AI in academia is a pretty huge scam by and large | 03:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | who did ask? Biontec vaccine aboutto finish *phase3* with 44k "guinea pigs" | 03:17 |
| LjL | i'm reading rumors (i won't even link, bad papers) that Boris Johnson is considering either "tier 4" measures for various places, or a new national lockdown, to be announced on Monday | 03:18 |
| tinwhisker | metreo: yes and no. I've seen academics think that AI will solve all sorts of problems that they fail to do in the real world, but on the other hand academic research into AI such as GPT-3 is making huge strides forward at certain tasks. | 03:19 |
| tinwhisker | it's not a huge scam but there are some unrealistic expectations. | 03:19 |
| metreo | not only expectations but promises as well | 03:20 |
| tinwhisker | but if you will only be happy with "strong" AI, we haven't the vaguest clue about that yet. | 03:20 |
| metreo | Look at the paper Ljl shared, it states: "Practical use cases could be for daily screening of students, workers, and public as schools, jobs, and transport reopen, or for pool testing..." | 03:20 |
| ryouma | i will make the pedantic claim that if you can detect a difference in your cough when you try coughing hten you are not asymtpomatic. but if you cannot then it is a sign not a symptom. | 03:21 |
| metreo | on a black-box model which hasn't been used on anything other than the same data as the training set! | 03:21 |
| tinwhisker | oh, yeah, that does seem like a bit of a load of twaddle | 03:21 |
| metreo | don't forget GPT-3 has like a billion parameters | 03:22 |
| ryouma | same data as training set should be immediate grounds for disqualification | 03:22 |
| tinwhisker | we did some work with identifying buttercups in paddocks using drones and "AI" and the lab tests were good but it just failed miserably in the real world. | 03:22 |
| metreo | it's a freaking dictionary not an AI | 03:22 |
| metreo | there is nothing impressive about a billion parameter model other than the software engineering | 03:22 |
| ryouma | that is similar to the multiple comparisons issue | 03:23 |
| metreo | ryouma, I mean from the same data collection as the training set | 03:23 |
| ryouma | the cornell food researcher guy who got fired deserved to be for fishing for correlations in a large data set. and he did not even seem to think it was a problem. | 03:23 |
| ryouma | and his graduate student wasn't even sure if she shouold think it was a problem | 03:24 |
| metreo | yeah I followed that | 03:24 |
| ghost_rider[m] | I really need A.I. since I lack real intelligence. | 03:24 |
| LjL | heh | 03:24 |
| metreo | look at the reproducibility crisis in social sciences, it's the exact same thing AI researchers using models to do | 03:25 |
| metreo | https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2010/12/study-looks-brains-ability-see-future | 03:27 |
| metreo | ^that's not fake | 03:27 |
| metreo | https://peerj.com/preprints/2748/ | 03:28 |
| ryouma | this early article on wansink was mind blowing https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/brian-wansink-cornell-p-hacking | 03:30 |
| ryouma | ghost_rider[m]: we all do imo | 03:30 |
| metreo | he gave zero shits and knew what he was doing | 03:30 |
| metreo | and GPT-3 has ~175 billion parameters fwiw | 03:31 |
| ryouma | cross validation in machine learning has known in theory to do n>1/e untrained data or some such thing for forever. so if anybody is not doing it that is a problem. | 03:32 |
| ryouma | i just have no respect for social science until proven otherwise | 03:32 |
| ryouma | not that hard sciences don't have enormous huge issues | 03:33 |
| ryouma | "More than three years later, Wansink would publicly praise Siğirci for being “the grad student who never said ‘no.’” The unpaid visiting scholar from Turkey was dogged, Wansink wrote on his blog in November 2016. Initially given a “failed study” with “null results,” Siğirci analyzed the data over and over until she began “discovering solutions that held up,” he wrote. Her tenacity ultimately t | 03:37 |
| ryouma | urned the buffet experiment into four published studies about pizza eating, all cowritten with Wansink and widely covered in the press." | 03:37 |
| ryouma | mind blowing, but not surprising | 03:38 |
| metreo | the bold faced ignorance of it I do find surprising, if he were a politician maybe.. | 03:39 |
| ghost_rider[m] | For me geneva convention should had verboten mixing pineapple with pizza | 03:42 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: U.S. reports 97,000 new coronavirus cases, biggest one-day increase on record (10048 votes) | https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1322313748267307008?s=21 | https://redd.it/jl7cr7 | 03:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Disney World to lay off more than 11,000 workers amid pandemic → https://is.gd/1d0otk | 03:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | lol, Sputnik-V (supposedly approved russian vaccine) is at beginning of phase3. nevertheless selling it to other countries already | 03:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | compare Biontec vaccine about to finish *phase3* with 44k "guinea pigs" this week | 03:57 |
| tinwhisker | I think you'll find sputnik is well ahead on numbers. Sure, they've changed how we define phase 3 a bit. People are still people and face the same risks regardless of where you pull them from and how you define phases, but they do have the numbers. Provided they are monitoring the results closely you might argue they are already well into phase 3 trials. | 04:01 |
| ryouma | i keep clicking on reddit by mistake and losing my place | 04:01 |
| ryouma | whatever popup thing | 04:02 |
| tinwhisker | I think the whole adenovirus approach is flawed but then the Oxford vaccine has the same problem. I guess it might give us some breathing room. | 04:02 |
| tinwhisker | Sure it has some trust and credibility issues with such a gratuitously Russian approach, but there's a bunch of third-world countries queuing up to get it so let's hope for their sake it pans out. | 04:13 |
| tinwhisker | I'm not sure, even if they had followed "standard protocol" (if such a thing exists in these times) that we'd really trust it much more given the huge propaganda machine behind it so this may not be such a terrible approach. | 04:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | tinwhisker: >>you might argue they are already well into phase 3 trials<< yeah, but biontec has finished pjase3 and awaits the final results next week, with 44k test persons while russia has 40k of which not all received their 2nd vaccination yet | 04:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | my point being they declared it appoved just to brag they're first | 04:48 |
| tinwhisker | oh, yeah. they probably did have that motivation :-) | 04:48 |
| tinwhisker | My impression was that sputnik was more widely used than in that 40k trial, but I can't find any details. | 04:49 |
| tinwhisker | If it indeed hasn't gone beyond the 40k trial then how exactly is it rushed and reckless as is widely reported in the media? | 04:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | they sell to Venezuela and don't know whom else | 04:55 |
| tinwhisker | ok | 04:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | meanwhile running double blind 40k study at home | 04:57 |
| tinwhisker | So Venezuela is participating in phase 3 trials | 04:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | facing the same skyrocketing incidences like virtually whole world, they now either admit they didn't vaccinate as much as they pretended they did or they cope with doubts about heir sputnik being completely ineffektive | 04:59 |
| tinwhisker | right | 05:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | aiui venezuela just buys the vaccine. Dunno but don't think they participate in the phase3 study | 05:00 |
| tinwhisker | Venezuela will be the first Latin American nation to participate in clinical trials of the Russian Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine.Vice President Delcy Rodriguez made the announcement upon the arrival of the medical cargo on Friday, and informed that the vaccine's phase 3 clinical trials will begin this month with 2,000 citizens from Caracas... | 05:01 |
| tinwhisker | that's probably just code for giving it to rich people :-/ | 05:01 |
| tinwhisker | (as also happened in Russia) | 05:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hehe definitely, also in russia they use a ... selected group of people | 05:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | putin: >>oh, so you just received your second vaccination?<< minister: >>yes<< putin: >>and how do you feel?<< minister: >>like I just caught corona which I probably did. But then I suspect I'm in the control group getting just vitamines<< | 05:04 |
| cmpx[m] | RIP Prime Minister Nobödez Herdøff | 05:09 |
| tinwhisker | cmpx[m]: who is that? (forgive my ignorance) | 05:09 |
| cmpx[m] | It was a bad joke on Docs comment | 05:10 |
| Jigsy | 3>Boris Johnson has bowed to pressure from his scientific advisers for new national lockdown restrictions, which are expected to be announced early next week, the Guardian has been told. | 05:10 |
| tinwhisker | oh. lol | 05:10 |
| Jigsy | Guess that means a rule of five and the pubs close at 21:45 now. | 05:10 |
| tinwhisker | Jigsy: that's great news | 05:10 |
| cmpx[m] | tinwhisker: remember when Vladimir had proof of a vaccine by giving it to his daughter | 05:12 |
| tinwhisker | he did do that, right? | 05:12 |
| Jigsy | Knowing how useless the UK is, it's probably going to be Tier 4 restrictions. | 05:13 |
| tinwhisker | I mean I don't remember that being offered as proof but I do recall someone saying Putin's daughter had received it. | 05:13 |
| tinwhisker | presumably they already had at least some confidence in it by then | 05:14 |
| tinwhisker | or he doesn't value or his daughter very much | 05:14 |
| tinwhisker | Jigsy: where I come from level 4 is the maximum restriction. Is Tier 4 the least restrictive in the UK? | 05:15 |
| Jigsy | It doesn't exist. | 05:16 |
| Jigsy | It's just 1-3. | 05:16 |
| tinwhisker | heh | 05:16 |
| Jigsy | They're throwing around the idea of Tier 4 afaik, though. | 05:16 |
| cmpx[m] | Not sure if it was propaganda or not, but he claims one of his daughters took it | 05:16 |
| cmpx[m] | https://www.coronavirustoday.com/2020/08/11/president-putins-daughter-tested-covid-19-vaccine-candidate | 05:16 |
| Jigsy | Then it'll be Tier 5, 6... | 05:16 |
| tinwhisker | Hopefully they'll look to Melbourne's success by doing a hard lockdown and come away significantly better off, but I doubt it :-( | 05:18 |
| g2` | Happy Halloween 🎃 | 05:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | trick or treat | 05:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia to spend $500 million on COVID-19 vaccines for Southeast Asian and Pacific neighbours → https://is.gd/pwlRFN | 05:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +20056 cases (now 412314), +144 deaths (now 11452) since a day ago — France: +10308 cases (now 1.3 million) since 7 hours ago — Netherlands: +416 cases (now 341790), +10 deaths (now 7355) since 15 hours ago — US: +92 cases (now 9.3 million), +3 deaths (now 235159) since 3 hours ago | 06:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Parisians flee, sidewalks empty as France enters lockdown → https://is.gd/yHOvhq | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lombardy, Italy: +8960 cases (now 186825), +48 deaths (now 17462) since 23 hours ago — France: +12374 cases (now 1.4 million), +20 deaths (now 36585) since 19 minutes ago — Netherlands: +2793 cases (now 344583), +22 deaths (now 7377) since 19 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +1565 cases (now 991310), +45 deaths (now 46274) since 13 hours ago | 06:24 |
| kara[m] | hi | 06:55 |
| kara[m] | anyone know about czech? | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: With election looming, US faces record surge of coronavirus cases → https://is.gd/MFGkRt | 07:09 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Understanding and addressing challenges for Advance Care Planning in the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis of the UK CovPall survey data from specialist palliative care services. by Andy Bradshaw et al, published on 2020-10-30 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.28.20200725 [... want %more?] | 07:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: J&J plans to test its COVID-19 vaccine in ages 12-18 soon → https://is.gd/AjCCn9 | 07:45 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: United States Breaks 100,000 Cases in a 24 hour Period (10018 votes) | http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/# | https://redd.it/jl8q73 | 08:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Schools open during proposed next lockdown → https://is.gd/gxyw78 | 09:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.S. reports world record of more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases in single day → https://is.gd/GArBev | 09:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US Election Wrap, 31 October: With Covid-19 at its centre, fight moves to Midwest → https://is.gd/cwCwcD | 09:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 31OCT20 → https://is.gd/Q0M1WF | 09:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1746 cases (now 9.3 million), +21 deaths (now 235180) since 5 hours ago | 10:20 |
| pwr22 | UK is gonna lockdown again | 10:37 |
| pwr22 | looks like | 10:37 |
| darsie | Austria, too. | 10:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Britain may impose new national lockdown from Wednesday – Report → https://is.gd/ixXqpD | 11:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Coronavirus digest: Infections soar in US, Europe | 31OCT20 → https://is.gd/LpZK3D | 11:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Britain may impose new national lockdown next week amid Covid-19 surge | 31OCT20 → https://is.gd/jQtLU5 | 11:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Italian nurse on coronavirus duty sees the nightmare return: A 54-year-old nurse became convinced the coronavirus "hated" her during the first seven months of Italy's outbreaks. Those are Cristina Settembrese's words for it. → https://is.gd/C2HYTo | 11:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Slovakia begins mass virus testing in global first: Slovakia on Saturday begins a programme to screen its entire population for coronavirus with antigen tests in what would be a global first, but critics have said the plan is poorly thought out. → https://is.gd/nPzSZZ | 11:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Greek PM declares partial coronavirus lockdown: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Saturday declared a one-month partial coronavirus lockdown, shutting down restaurants and other leisure activities in Athens and other major cities from Tuesday. → https://is.gd/3xdAnE | 12:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Canada extends international travellers ban: Canada on Friday extended a restriction on non-essential international entries until the end of November as COVID-19 cases rise, while easing quarantine rules for some cut-off Canada-US border communities. → https://is.gd/RhSX0V | 12:14 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Portugal we can't go out without valid reason or go no another village/city until Thursday. New measures are being thought right now. | 12:19 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Hospitals ICU at 80% capacity and personal exhausted. | 12:20 |
| dtrum | ghost_rider[m]: as I know, the travel ban into next village is only in specific areas | 12:31 |
| tiny | Hi. Anyone here asking why we need all this measures for a virus that has IFR of 0.05% for people aged less then 70? | 12:35 |
| dtrum | tiny: Oh my?? | 12:39 |
| tiny | It's an understatement to call world response to this virus a fuck up of the century. | 12:41 |
| rpifan | tiny, my answer look at the united states | 12:45 |
| rpifan | if you like to die | 12:45 |
| rpifan | have fun | 12:45 |
| rpifan | but dont infect others thats all | 12:45 |
| tiny | rpifan: what should I look at? Number of postiives from PCR test? | 12:46 |
| rpifan | number of tests | 12:46 |
| tiny | I mainly look at number of people in ICUs and number of deaths. | 12:47 |
| tiny | And when I look at NewYork stats I feel great. At least for now. | 12:48 |
| tiny | Also Sweden. | 12:50 |
| tiny | Brasil, looks like they are on a way to some sort of natural immunity. | 12:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +610 cases (now 9.3 million), +2 deaths (now 235182) since 2 hours ago | 12:50 |
| dtrum | rpifan: sprichst du auch deutsch? | 12:54 |
| rpifan | ja | 12:54 |
| dtrum | schön, fühl ich mich gleich weniger einsam | 12:56 |
| ghost_rider[m] | dtrum: all country, before was only where was more infection's. Reason is to not collapse the health system. All lives matter for us. | 12:57 |
| rpifan | wo wohnst du | 12:58 |
| dtrum | ghost_rider[m]: All right, sorry but this covid deniers like tiny are making me sick. | 13:02 |
| tiny | covid deiners? | 13:03 |
| tiny | lol | 13:03 |
| tiny | All lifes matter? | 13:03 |
| tiny | Really? | 13:03 |
| tiny | What a crock of shit! | 13:03 |
| tiny | https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20190716-1 <--- noone cares about people dying of cancer and diseases of circulatory systems | 13:04 |
| rpifan | not this shit again | 13:04 |
| rpifan | dude | 13:04 |
| rpifan | if there was a vaccine or a mask you could wear to stop this then we'd do it | 13:04 |
| rpifan | but you cant | 13:04 |
| rpifan | that requires huge complex changes and even when we have strategies people dont implement them | 13:04 |
| tiny | 200 billions will be spent in EU now for damages to economy. | 13:05 |
| tiny | Imagine this money flowing into "all life matter" politics. | 13:05 |
| rpifan | oh you like saving lives fine | 13:05 |
| rpifan | then how about the ammount of people | 13:05 |
| rpifan | that will be saved from car accidents | 13:05 |
| rpifan | when there is a lockdown and there is almost no traffic | 13:06 |
| tiny | Of course! But we need to get the perspective ffs | 13:06 |
| rpifan | millions of lives are saved | 13:06 |
| rpifan | or when we shut down the factories | 13:06 |
| tiny | millions? | 13:06 |
| rpifan | all over the world yes | 13:06 |
| tiny | millions? | 13:06 |
| rpifan | car accidents are a leading cause of death | 13:06 |
| rpifan | orr | 13:06 |
| rpifan | how about the millions of people | 13:06 |
| rpifan | that wont die from lung cancer when we shut down factories and reduce pollution | 13:06 |
| rpifan | think about the massive benefits | 13:06 |
| rpifan | when you are saying is you care more about money then people | 13:07 |
| rpifan | you are disgusting | 13:07 |
| tiny | hahaha | 13:07 |
| tiny | idiots in here also | 13:07 |
| rpifan | oh | 13:07 |
| tiny | have fun in lockdowns | 13:07 |
| rpifan | yes i do actually | 13:07 |
| rpifan | lots of social benefits | 13:07 |
| tiny | of course | 13:07 |
| tiny | you probably work @ gov | 13:08 |
| rpifan | how do you respond to the lives we are saving even if there was no covid | 13:08 |
| tiny | not in private sector | 13:08 |
| rpifan | think about the benefits | 13:08 |
| tiny | bye idiots | 13:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Retraction Watch: Weekend reads: A peer review murder mystery for Halloween; learning from #medbikini; inside the publishing ring that linked COVID-19 and 5G: Before we present this week’s Weekend Reads, a question: Do you enjoy our weekly roundup? If so, we could really use your help. Would you consider a tax-deductible donation to support [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ehQY15 | 13:08 |
| rpifan | its funny i developed this line of reasonsing when i talked to a covid denier and its surprisingly effective | 13:08 |
| rpifan | since there are a lot of benefits to a lockdown besides just covid cases | 13:09 |
| rpifan | wearing a mask how also lower flu / cold rates | 13:09 |
| rpifan | which is super | 13:09 |
| dtrum | in the first three month of the pandemic died more people on covid then on traffic accidents , covididiot | 13:09 |
| dtrum | worldwide! | 13:10 |
| ghost_rider[m] | dtrum: he is not even aware of the true costs, I wonder what's more important than well being of people. If everyone get sick not sure how the economy would work, maybe the robots working and exporting to imaginary beings on Mars. | 13:14 |
| ghost_rider[m] | 80% of the work can be automated with technology available ond shelves (source Darpa) 60% of the work is artificial just to keep this society model (source talk at CCC Germany) | 13:15 |
| ghost_rider[m] | So, the problem is not sars is a psychopathic society. | 13:16 |
| dtrum | ghost_rider[m] almost agree | 13:30 |
| dtrum | Wondering, why Belgium | 13:34 |
| dtrum | is doing so bad | 13:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia's Labor Party on track to win Queensland vote in COVID-dominated race → https://is.gd/GPjTXd | 13:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): PM to hold news conference as lockdown considered → https://is.gd/cuLj8T | 13:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: Deliberate Efforts to Achieve Herd Immunity to COVID Are Dangerous → https://is.gd/dBIf3e | 14:03 |
| rpifan | ah so this chan is full of europeans | 14:03 |
| rpifan | nice | 14:03 |
| rpifan | have yal seen ##coronavirus as well | 14:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus Mutation May Have Made It More Contagious → https://is.gd/wTXDw1 | 14:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 31 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/3IoRuA | 14:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +6595 cases (now 351178), +27 deaths (now 7395) since 8 hours ago — US: +4621 cases (now 9.3 million), +66 deaths (now 235248) since 2 hours ago — Switzerland: +9 deaths (now 2286) since 12 hours ago | 15:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. reports record 99,321 new coronavirus cases as scientists warn latest surge just beginning → https://is.gd/ZfrS5q | 15:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | dtrum: ((belgium)) done too little, too late? | 15:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | rpifan_: have you een /zopic? | 15:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | /topic even | 15:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1559 cases (now 9.3 million), +16 deaths (now 235264) since 47 minutes ago | 15:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | USA is 3 times German population? anyway covid cases are 23 times | 15:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | they got half the fatalities we got cases here | 15:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | in Germany | 15:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, 23 times the fatalities of Germany | 15:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Post-2020 election, Covid vaccine is biggest disinformation threat on the internet: Former Facebook security chief → https://is.gd/MZIXA2 | 15:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | if USA opts for 4 more years of this, they gotta be damn masochists | 15:45 |
| spybert | DocScrutinizer05: It's the power of propaganda. The people voting for another 4 years of this don't really understand what they are doing. | 15:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also known as >>there's proof and counterproof for literally everything, I don't know anything so I deviced to believe the least scary version<< | 16:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | decided* | 16:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1018 cases (now 9.3 million), +39 deaths (now 235303) since 56 minutes ago | 16:21 |
| jacklsw | how many covid variations are there? | 16:32 |
| jacklsw | some looks like mild cases | 16:32 |
| metreo | at least one or several dozens? | 16:32 |
| metreo | I think there would be degrees of variantion | 16:33 |
| jacklsw | some super spreader | 16:33 |
| metreo | Realistically we don't even know those characteristics for the original Covid-19 much less an emerging major variant | 16:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Policy: Someone leaked the COVID hospitalization data taken from the CDC → https://is.gd/Y2EP6r | 16:45 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7107 cases (now 9.3 million), +117 deaths (now 235420) since 39 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +1901 cases (now 245946), +45 deaths (now 5979) since 23 hours ago | 16:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: NJ governor on coronavirus lockdown: 'If we have to shut the whole place down we will' → https://is.gd/DNS64m | 17:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +20350 cases (now 1.0 million), +326 deaths (now 46555) since 11 hours ago — US: +3115 cases (now 9.3 million), +33 deaths (now 235453) since 34 minutes ago | 17:22 |
| Jigsy | We did it! | 17:28 |
| robert2 | what did you do? | 17:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Trump campaign rallies led to more than 30,000 coronavirus cases, Stanford researchers say → https://is.gd/6x2mK8 | 17:30 |
| tinwhisker | Jigsy: oh dear. Congratulations :-( | 17:31 |
| Jigsy | 3>United Kingdom: +20350 cases (now 1.0 million) | 17:31 |
| Jigsy | It was under half a million like, two months ago? | 17:31 |
| robert2 | I think here in Belgium we are the best of the best in Europe... | 17:33 |
| robert2 | 21448+ in 24h ... | 17:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +31756 cases (now 679430), +297 deaths (now 38618) since a day ago | 17:37 |
| robert2 | :( | 17:37 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2 (83 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR0Tk_BvdLZTjFkcrAii0wBsd5s8d6g-KtyKSnLhHY1Tem5r5EK2IyPhU2M | https://redd.it/jlj522 | 17:42 |
| metreo | Top ten infected countries today: India: #1 (42,479) UK: #2 (21,915) Poland: #3 (21,897) Belgium: #4 (20,056) USA: #5 (19,776) Russia: #6 (18,140) The Netherlands: #7 (9,804) Ukraine: #8 (8,752) Iran: #9 (7,820) Mexico: #10 (6,000) | 17:42 |
| Arsanerit | Germany appears to be missing in that top-10 | 17:44 |
| Arsanerit | as does Italy | 17:44 |
| metreo | day is not over yet | 17:44 |
| ubLIX[m] | The Telegraph link for Boris UK press conference scheduled for 5pm (in ~15 minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_Q5-2aRQHc | 17:44 |
| tinwhisker | robert2: France is getting over 50k cases per day | 17:44 |
| metreo | plus it's saturday | 17:44 |
| ubLIX[m] | not seeing any other live links | 17:45 |
| tinwhisker | Thanks ubLIX[m] | 17:45 |
| jacklsw | looks like covid affects everyone in the world except china now | 17:45 |
| Arsanerit | DocScrutinizer05: Berlusconi was re-elected plenty. | 17:45 |
| Arsanerit | jacklsw: There are some districts in Estonia that haven't reported new cases in the past fortnight. | 17:46 |
| tinwhisker | jacklsw: there's several countries in that boat | 17:46 |
| Arsanerit | Oh, just one district now. | 17:46 |
| Arsanerit | Germany's only neighbour that isn't much worse than Germany is Denmark. | 17:47 |
| tinwhisker | Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Cambodia, Australia, new Zealand, Tonga, several other Pacific island nations are pretty much business as normal | 17:47 |
| jacklsw | how big is estonia? | 17:47 |
| jacklsw | business as usual for those affected as well | 17:47 |
| jacklsw | due to capitalist model, they can't sustain lockdown | 17:48 |
| tinwhisker | Of course tourism is not back to normal | 17:48 |
| tinwhisker | jacklsw: you said it looks like covid affects everyone in the world except China. I was just pointing out there are other countries in a similar situation as China. They are not alone in that. | 17:51 |
| jacklsw | yea those stricter in law and more secluded countries | 17:53 |
| jacklsw | vietnam taiwan north korea | 17:53 |
| tinwhisker | Whatever the reasons, China is not the only country. | 17:54 |
| Arsanerit | jacklsw: Estonia is small. | 17:56 |
| Arsanerit | Estonia as a whole has 56.9 new cases per 100k inhabitants reported in the past 14 days. | 17:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: The ‘Hunger Hero’: Indian-origin chef in Australia feeding needy during coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/aqtZ0H | 17:57 |
| Arsanerit | apparently no new cases reported in Järva county | 17:57 |
| Arsanerit | Järva county has 30k inhabitants | 17:59 |
| aradesh | is there an announcement shortly in the UK about lockdown rules? | 17:59 |
| tinwhisker | aradesh: right now | 17:59 |
| Arsanerit | according to https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea EE-51 is the only subnational entity in the EU/EEA/UK with no new cases reported in the past 14 days. | 18:00 |
| tinwhisker | ubLIX[m]: posted a link a few minutes back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_Q5-2aRQHc | 18:00 |
| ubLIX[m] | doesn't seem to be broadcasting just yet though :| | 18:01 |
| aradesh | tinwhisker: he's not on the TV yet | 18:01 |
| ubLIX[m] | might just be my computer | 18:01 |
| tinwhisker | No, I'm getting the same. What I meant is it's due right now. | 18:02 |
| aradesh | some bloke on the news instead | 18:04 |
| ubLIX[m] | seeing a Daily Mirror live link too. Telegraph says scheduled for 5pm; Mirror says scheduled for 6pm | 18:05 |
| jacklsw | somebody forgot the daylight saving adjustment? | 18:06 |
| jacklsw | haha | 18:06 |
| Arsanerit | maybe someone has outsourced their broadcasting to romania | 18:06 |
| ubLIX[m] | Daily Mirror link in case it ends up coming on first: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdisl_SYq7o | 18:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: PM set to announce month-long England lockdown: The announcement of a second national lockdown comes as the UK passes one million Covid-19 cases. → https://is.gd/2hDPv8 | 18:06 |
| aradesh | i wonder how these rumours lake | 18:09 |
| aradesh | yesterday it was rumoured that the government would announce a new lockdown soon | 18:09 |
| dejasenti | @aradesh lots of ways for info to leak... some people get paid to leak, others get off on leaking, and some just leak | 18:12 |
| aradesh | i think if i were prime minister i'd be very angry about leaking | 18:21 |
| aradesh | i'd be like... right. no one uses phones. no one uses the internet. | 18:21 |
| aradesh | :P | 18:21 |
| dejasenti | @aradesh alright, everyone off reddit... the Cabinet is still in session for lord's sake! *** one hour later *** Cabinet members emerge to find UK has forgotten who they were | 18:25 |
| LjL | Hi aradesh | 18:27 |
| LjL | I don't think he can do that outside maybe if when they're actually in the cabinet | 18:27 |
| LjL | But these rumors were already posted yesterday | 18:27 |
| Arsanerit | UK announcements always leak. | 18:33 |
| Arsanerit | "The PM will say x, the PM will say y" typical UK news | 18:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2410 cases (now 9.3 million), +10 deaths (now 235463) since an hour ago — Canada: +839 cases (now 234084), +4 deaths (now 10134) since an hour ago | 18:37 |
| Arsanerit | interesting that Liechtenstein included with ECDC but not Switzerland, usually Liechtenstein does what Switzerland does | 18:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo ends coronavirus quarantine list, requires travelers to get tested instead → https://is.gd/mMOpGT | 18:52 |
| aradesh | still no announcement | 19:00 |
| ubLIX[m] | telegraph link now saying scheduled for 6.30pm | 19:09 |
| Jigsy | ... | 19:28 |
| Jigsy | Downing Street's postponed it until 18:45 now. | 19:28 |
| Jigsy | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7B1sBUdQeio | 19:28 |
| rpifan | they gotta have dinner first | 19:29 |
| Birosso | Dinner at 6? | 19:29 |
| Birosso | So British. | 19:29 |
| blkshp | As opposed to? | 19:30 |
| Birosso | At eight. | 19:30 |
| blkshp | rediculously late. | 19:30 |
| ubLIX[m] | "I come to you this evening to announce that on Monday.. there will be an announcement." | 19:30 |
| Birosso | No, late is 10 PM. | 19:31 |
| Birosso | 8 PM dinner is fine. | 19:31 |
| blkshp | If you notice this notice you'll notice this notice is not worth noticing. | 19:31 |
| blkshp | What if you have to get up at 5? | 19:31 |
| Birosso | Eat at 8, go to bed at 10. | 19:31 |
| blkshp | terrible idea :P | 19:31 |
| rpifan | you know the spanish have dinner at 10 or 11 | 19:32 |
| blkshp | When do you have lunch? | 19:32 |
| rpifan | blkshp, what r u doing in here | 19:32 |
| blkshp | rpifan: go away. | 19:32 |
| Birosso | Whenever I feel like it, really. | 19:32 |
| blkshp | on average? | 19:32 |
| Birosso | 5 PM | 19:32 |
| rpifan | lol blkshp | 19:32 |
| blkshp | you eat lunch at 5pm? | 19:32 |
| Birosso | Yes. | 19:32 |
| tinwhisker | o.O | 19:32 |
| blkshp | Birosso: where is this where you eat like heathens? :P | 19:33 |
| Birosso | On a mountaintop in the middle of nowhere in Germany. | 19:33 |
| tinwhisker | perhaps "lunch" and "dinner" has just become confused in translation. | 19:33 |
| rpifan | abendessen | 19:33 |
| rpifan | mittagsessen | 19:33 |
| blkshp | Breakfast, Lunch, Dinner. | 19:33 |
| Birosso | Abendessen um 20:00 Uhr | 19:33 |
| tinwhisker | 6:00am, 12:00pm, 6:00pm like any civilised place | 19:34 |
| blkshp | If i have breakfast it's usually about 8, lunch at 1300ish and dinner about 1900 | 19:34 |
| rpifan | lol | 19:34 |
| rpifan | i have offten had lunch at 3 or 4 pm | 19:34 |
| rpifan | often | 19:34 |
| Birosso | At twenty hundred öclock. | 19:35 |
| blkshp | though i don't frequently have breakfast of lunch so i have brunch at 11 | 19:35 |
| rpifan | you need the o clock when you use the 24 hour clock | 19:35 |
| rpifan | its a common german error | 19:35 |
| Birosso | öclock | 19:35 |
| blkshp | Still as mad as ever i see. | 19:35 |
| rpifan | germans are the großest error | 19:36 |
| rpifan | but we cant fix that leider | 19:36 |
| Birosso | They also make the Wurst jokes. | 19:36 |
| Jigsy | Oh. | 19:36 |
| Jigsy | It's starting. | 19:36 |
| rpifan | yea | 19:37 |
| rpifan | the germans are taking over again | 19:37 |
| Jigsy | Everytime he says "COVID" or "Corona," drink! | 19:37 |
| Birosso | Wait, did they delay it AGAIN? | 19:37 |
| tinwhisker | I just see "Starting shortly". | 19:38 |
| Birosso | Says 17 minutes left on my end. | 19:38 |
| tinwhisker | ooohhh | 19:38 |
| tinwhisker | ahhh, no | 19:38 |
| Jigsy | How do I fast forward? :P | 19:38 |
| rpifan | wait 17 minutes | 19:38 |
| LjL | Birosso, have you hidden in the mountains | 19:48 |
| Jigsy | Ooh. | 19:48 |
| Jigsy | Starting. | 19:48 |
| aradesh | finally now | 19:48 |
| LjL | Boris? | 19:50 |
| ubLIX[m] | mhm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7B1sBUdQeio | 19:52 |
| ubLIX[m] | well, scientific advisor talking just now | 19:52 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], how does this work, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df1GrBjx5kQ has the person talking, the one you linked has a huge graph and someone going sign language | 19:53 |
| Jigsy | "If we do nothing..." | 19:53 |
| Jigsy | lol, that's rich. | 19:53 |
| LjL | he does say "next sign please" so i guess i'm supposed to watch the one with signs | 19:54 |
| Jigsy | You've done nothing for weeks. | 19:54 |
| ubLIX[m] | idk. i'm sure both streams will move over to boris is a mo | 19:54 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 Spike Proteins Disrupt the Blood-Brain Barrier, Potentially Raising Risk of Neurological Damage in COVID-19 Patients (80 votes) | https://www.templehealth.org/about/news/sars-cov-2-spike-proteins-disrupt-the-blood-brain-barrier-potentially-raising-risk-of-neurological-damage-in-covid-19-patients | https://redd.it/jlhub4 | 19:55 |
| LjL | sign language person is very uh expressive | 19:55 |
| Jigsy | R doesn't mean shit. | 19:56 |
| Jigsy | The fact they continually change it to suit their agenda. | 19:56 |
| metreo | R < 1 mean reopen | 19:56 |
| aradesh | live here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0FSHji5M-I | 19:57 |
| metreo | this graph alone indicates there will be lockdowns coming | 19:57 |
| metreo | I prefer the sign language interpreter to the politicians anyday :P | 19:58 |
| Jigsy | He's right. Too bad he isn't one. | 20:01 |
| metreo | I actually like Boris fwiw | 20:03 |
| metreo | jesus | 20:03 |
| LjL | he's saying if they don't stop the growth there will have to be triaging | 20:04 |
| Jigsy | [19:03:03] <metreo> I actually like Boris | 20:05 |
| Jigsy | You should leave. :< | 20:05 |
| metreo | lol | 20:05 |
| aradesh | the channel or the country? | 20:05 |
| LjL | and that some regions don't have terrible data yet but the projections doom them too | 20:05 |
| Jigsy | The planet. | 20:05 |
| LjL | let's keep down the heat please | 20:05 |
| Jigsy | LjL: I'm just joking. :P | 20:06 |
| Birosso | Aside from Italy and the UK, who else has lockdowns in Europe right now? | 20:06 |
| Birosso | If any. | 20:06 |
| Jigsy | France, I think? | 20:06 |
| aradesh | france right? | 20:06 |
| tinwhiskers | France | 20:06 |
| LjL | italy doesn't have a lockdown currently | 20:06 |
| LjL | france does have a full lockdown | 20:06 |
| Birosso | I meant to say France and the UK, sorry. | 20:06 |
| LjL | germany has an italy-like thing | 20:06 |
| aradesh | czechia | 20:06 |
| Jigsy | Spain? | 20:06 |
| aradesh | czechia has 9pm curfew | 20:06 |
| Birosso | Fun times ahead. | 20:06 |
| LjL | spain has a state of emergency but each autonomous community has its own rules | 20:06 |
| Jigsy | Yup, another lockdown. | 20:06 |
| Jigsy | The economy was fucked either way. | 20:07 |
| Jigsy | I was due for a haircut on Thursday, as well. | 20:07 |
| Jigsy | Oh well. | 20:07 |
| LjL | what did he say before pubs and restaurants closing? | 20:07 |
| Birosso | I need an internship to graduate, and the industry is in shambles. | 20:07 |
| aradesh | so are many other country's | 20:07 |
| Jigsy | LjL: To be fair, I zoned out. | 20:07 |
| Jigsy | So I don't know. | 20:08 |
| LjL | yeah well he "encourages" people not to go to work if they're vulnerable... and they get fired? | 20:08 |
| ubLIX[m] | LjL: to close. only places that can deliver food to stay open | 20:08 |
| metreo | extended furlows | 20:08 |
| aradesh | schools and universities remaining open | 20:08 |
| aradesh | must keep brainwashing institutes going | 20:09 |
| Jigsy | Schools still open? | 20:10 |
| aradesh | yup | 20:10 |
| Jigsy | So nothing changes. | 20:10 |
| Jigsy | People will still be getting infected out the wazoo. | 20:10 |
| Jigsy | Unless schools do the right thing and shut. | 20:10 |
| aradesh | never know, they might change their mind in like 2 weeks | 20:10 |
| LjL | two weeks is a long time | 20:11 |
| Jigsy | Funny thing is, people won't follow this shit. | 20:11 |
| Jigsy | They don't care. | 20:12 |
| metreo | we are getting rapid tests this week as well | 20:12 |
| Jigsy | They're quite self-absorbed. | 20:12 |
| Jigsy | I needed to go to the bank and withdraw some money. :S | 20:12 |
| Jigsy | Oh, so it's a lockdown in name. | 20:13 |
| LjL | the message is the same but the measures are not | 20:13 |
| LjL | okay | 20:13 |
| Birosso | lol | 20:14 |
| Birosso | That question. | 20:14 |
| Jigsy | And what about mature students? | 20:15 |
| metreo | they using kickstarter to support students :D | 20:15 |
| metreo | I forgot that the poppy campaign started yesterday | 20:16 |
| tinwhiskers | for some reason this youtube stream only has audio on the left channel and the rain is pouring down so hard here I can barely hear it. | 20:16 |
| Birosso | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdisl_SYq7o | 20:17 |
| Birosso | is fine on my end. | 20:17 |
| tinwhiskers | ah, that's better. thanks. | 20:17 |
| Jigsy | When's this lockdown from? | 20:18 |
| Jigsy | Friday? | 20:18 |
| metreo | Thursday | 20:19 |
| Jigsy | Hmmm... | 20:19 |
| Jigsy | I might need to call my uncle. | 20:19 |
| Jigsy | Find out what'll happen about my haircut. | 20:20 |
| metreo | haircut == non-essential | 20:20 |
| LjL | What was the deal with younger vs older than 16 students? He said something but I was too distracted too follow | 20:20 |
| aradesh | Jigsy: uncle = hairdresser? | 20:20 |
| Jigsy | aradesh: No. | 20:20 |
| Jigsy | Friend of the family comes over and cuts our hair. | 20:20 |
| Jigsy | He's a barber, though. | 20:21 |
| aradesh | LjL: don't remember | 20:21 |
| metreo | they are using kickstarter to help 16-24 y.o's find employment | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +29140 cases (now 9.4 million), +234 deaths (now 235697) since an hour ago — Canada: +349 cases (now 234433), +2 deaths (now 10136) since an hour ago | 20:23 |
| ubLIX[m] | missed that. you're joking, surely | 20:23 |
| metreo | he may have said kickstart but I heard kickstarter :) | 20:23 |
| metreo | he's referring to this obviously: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/thevinelab/wallace-and-gromit-a-close-shave-collectors-model | 20:24 |
| metreo | :P | 20:24 |
| metreo | probably ordered 20 :D | 20:24 |
| Jigsy | I also like how this lockdown is so important, they're waiting until Thursday. | 20:25 |
| Jigsy | lol. | 20:25 |
| Jigsy | What's another 100,000 people being infected before then? :P | 20:25 |
| LjL | Yeah I get he has to go through parliament but it seems a bit of an absurd wait | 20:26 |
| Birosso | They're giving people a chance to hoard toilet paper. | 20:26 |
| metreo | better not to slam the brakes | 20:26 |
| Jigsy | I think Mom went shopping today. | 20:26 |
| Jigsy | Since I told her this at about seven this morning before I went to bed. | 20:26 |
| metreo | otherwise people will panic buy plastic forks or some other sutpidity | 20:26 |
| Jigsy | There's now a few bags of emergency supplies in the kitchen. | 20:26 |
| Birosso | I wanted to go shopping today but forgot it's a holiday. I didn't go shopping yesterday. | 20:27 |
| Jigsy | Holiday? | 20:27 |
| Birosso | Reformation day | 20:27 |
| Jigsy | Halloween = Major deal? | 20:27 |
| Jigsy | Oh. | 20:27 |
| Jigsy | I love how people are also pinning their hopes on a vaccine. | 20:27 |
| Jigsy | Completely forgetting that it needs to be manufactured. | 20:27 |
| Jigsy | And distributed. | 20:28 |
| Jigsy | Which is completely unrealistic in the span of a month. | 20:28 |
| metreo | even if we only get enough for healthcare workers that would boost ICU capacity | 20:28 |
| tinwhiskers | they're not saying the vaccine will be ready in a month | 20:28 |
| tinwhiskers | the lockdown period is not related to that | 20:28 |
| ubLIX[m] | Boris said "realistic chance of a vaccine in the first quarter of next year" | 20:29 |
| Birosso | Are they limiting it to one month to avoid upsetting people during the holiday season, or because they think it would be enough to stem the current wave? | 20:29 |
| Jigsy | So, Spring? | 20:29 |
| Jigsy | First quarter would be January 1st, but that's too optimistic. | 20:29 |
| tinwhiskers | in 4 weeks time the numbers will still be well above what they are at today | 20:30 |
| Jigsy | Oh, wait, no. | 20:30 |
| Jigsy | That's January 1st until March 31st. | 20:30 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m]: and then it depends what he means by "having" the vaccine. Who has it? What percent of the population can be covered by spring? | 20:30 |
| tinwhiskers | it will continue to rise for about 3 weeks after the lockdown starts and will not decline much at all in the following week. | 20:30 |
| Jigsy | I'm still on the belief that people won't obey this shit. | 20:30 |
| Jigsy | They haven't since August(ish). | 20:30 |
| Jigsy | So... | 20:31 |
| LjL | What's there to be obeyed in the end? Closing eating and drinking venues and...? | 20:31 |
| metreo | non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues | 20:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | breakfast >><tinwhisker> 6:00am like any civilised place<< WUT?? o.O | 20:32 |
| tinwhiskers | :-) | 20:32 |
| LjL | Ah all non-essential shop | 20:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: CoronaBot changed to resolve /r/ redirects? great! | 20:40 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05: I didn't notice changes but I didn't really pay attention, it's not my bot | 20:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I see BJ is even worse than our german gvmt at explaining stuff | 20:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Johnson indeed performs great ... as comedian | 20:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | how could anybody _not_ like him | 20:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ;-) | 20:45 |
| ubLIX[m] | not sure how much those details will be mirrored in scottish restrictions | 20:46 |
| ubLIX[m] | hopefully they just close the border | 20:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: >> [31 Oct 2020 19:55:06] <CoronaBot> /r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 Spike Proteins Disrupt the Blood-Brain Barrier, Potentially Raising Risk of Neurological Damage in COVID-19 Patients (80 votes) | https://www.templehealth.org/about/news/sars-cov-2-spike-proteins-disrupt-the-blood-brain-barrier-potentially-raising-risk-of-neurological-damage-in-covid-19-patients | https://redd.it/jlhub4 << | 20:46 |
| LjL | I thought it always did that | 20:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: sorry yes, you're right. I confused that >>[29 Oct 2020 04:38:42] <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A country on lockdown with no cases of the coronavirus, has the first two cases brought by the United States. → https://is.gd/TpxD8o<< | 20:48 |
| LjL | I'm having a quick walk, possibly the last I'm allowed to have for a while... Slightly foggy and almost no one around, it reminds me of the day when I had a brief evening walk during the first lockdown | 20:48 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05: Brainstorm has no idea those are reddit links, it's just RSS to it | 20:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I see | 20:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | some aspect I didn't notice getting mentioned in any announcement incl rationale of current 1 month lockdowns everywhere: you'll inevitably see number of new cases *rise* for another 10 to 14 days until thoselockdowns *start* taking effect. For german lockdown assuming a R_eff=1.17 (quite unrealistic value from some "official" site, prolly daily unsmoothed weejend value) now and a very optimistic R_eff=0.6 after lockdown takes effect, | 21:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I calculated | 21:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ; 18000 * (1.17^(10/4)) = 26652 (2020-11-10) | 21:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ; 26650 * (0.6^(18/4)) = 2675 (2020-11-28) | 21:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | more realistic values for R_eff, you get 18000 * (1.30^(10/4)) * (0.8^(18/4)) = ~12707 | 21:04 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, i think its more than 10 days, i would assume at least 14-21 days into the lockdown until effect takes place | 21:16 |
| de-facto | so right now we are about to see the effect from mid of Oct | 21:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I deliberately used 'optimistic' values | 21:16 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, Melbourne's much harder lockdown took 3 week until it had an effect | 21:16 |
| tinwhiskers | *weeks | 21:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | tinwhiskers: that's good valuable data. thanks | 21:17 |
| tinwhiskers | daily case numbers were 5 times higher than at the start of the lockdown when it peaked, 22 days later. | 21:19 |
| de-facto | if i remember correctly i saw a graph for UK where an arrow marked start of lockdown and it was about ~2 weeks until peak, the graph was about symptoms afaik | 21:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ; 18000 * (1.17^(21/4)) 41043.8677214322414909 ; 18000 * (1.30^(21/4)) 71363.32959817452203694 | 21:22 |
| de-facto | yeah here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219725v1.full.pdf page 23 | 21:22 |
| tinwhiskers | daily cases will be at about 30k in the UK when the lockdown comes into effect so they may be looking at 150k per day by the time it peaks :-( | 21:23 |
| de-facto | idk if R in Germany really is as low as 1.17 i would assume more like 1.25-1.35 | 21:25 |
| de-facto | it might just be a fluctuation too early for a trend imho | 21:25 |
| tinwhiskers | if the UK lockdown ends in 4 weeks they will still be looking at about 80k cases per day when it ends, significantly worse than what it is today, so do not expect the lockdown to end that soon. | 21:27 |
| tinwhiskers | In Melbourne after 46 days the numbers had declined back to the same level as when the lockdown began, so maybe 6-7 weeks in the UK to return to *current* numbers. | 21:30 |
| de-facto | so lets be optimistic and assume R=1.25 @ 20k on Monday then we might have a peak of 20k * 1.25^(14/4) = 20k * 2.18 = 43.7k for serial time of 4 days or 20k * 1.25^(14^5.2) = 20k * 1.82 = 36.7k for serial time of 5.2 days | 21:31 |
| de-facto | for Germany | 21:31 |
| de-facto | it it is like 3 weeks it would be 20k * 1.25^(21/4) = 20k * 3.22 = 64.5k for 4 days serial time or 20k * 1.25^(21/5.2) = 20k * 2.46 = 49.2k | 21:33 |
| de-facto | yet that means we will have higher numbers at the end of October than at its start because incidence never decays as fast as it raised | 21:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Right. Who didn't stay alert? → https://is.gd/mgbdJD | 21:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | what's the purpose to assume different serial times? the R factor you assume or calculated already has taken this into account | 21:37 |
| de-facto | the serial time for calculating R established as 4 days, but i read papers that state its more like 5.2 days | 21:38 |
| de-facto | but yeah you are correct, i should use the one corresponding to the R i used | 21:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | then the R calculated would be a different one too | 21:39 |
| de-facto | so its 4 days then | 21:39 |
| de-facto | yes correct | 21:39 |
| de-facto | so with a constant R=1.25 entering with 20k the incidence would be 43.7k-64.5k for a peak of 14-21 days into the lockdown | 21:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | actually for using R to forecast incidence values it doesn't matter if it's based on 2 or 4 or 10 days. You just use the serial length this R value is defined for and you always get the same result from same raw input data | 21:41 |
| de-facto | yes exactly | 21:41 |
| de-facto | hmm well it does depend on serial time | 21:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no. You can calculate R for arbitrary serial time from a dataset like 1000, 1200 1440 and you'll always get 1728 as next value using that R value for forecast | 21:44 |
| de-facto | assuming n(t) = n(t0) * Reff(t) ^ ((t - t0) / tau) solves for Reff(t) = (n(t) / n(t0)) ^ (tau / (t - t0)) so it depends on tau | 21:44 |
| de-facto | but as you said its the same tau in both equations | 21:45 |
| tinwhiskers | The other good lockdown case study we have is Vietnam, and it's vastly different from Melbourne. They peaked merely 5 days after the lockdown began at only 1.8* the starting daily rate and had returned to pre-lockdown rates again only 9 days later! | 21:45 |
| tinwhiskers | wow | 21:45 |
| de-facto | thats impressive | 21:45 |
| de-facto | maybe they already changed behavior in advance? | 21:46 |
| tinwhiskers | hmmm. yeah | 21:46 |
| de-facto | but i guess it may be possible peak at one serial time into the lockdown, that would be the shortest time that is possible | 21:47 |
| de-facto | so maybe they are just that good? | 21:47 |
| tinwhiskers | that's astonishing | 21:47 |
| de-facto | completely different culture though, i doubt western countries could perform like that | 21:48 |
| de-facto | and also completely different incidence | 21:48 |
| tinwhiskers | Of course we also have Hubei. They peaked 19 days after lockdown began at 8.4* the starting daily rate and returned to pre-lockdown rates again 30 days after lockdown began. | 21:51 |
| de-facto | interesting, but they probably had very strict containment | 21:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US sets world record for coronavirus cases in 24 hours → https://is.gd/6rM3Gj | 21:53 |
| tinwhiskers | point of clarification on Veitnam. They returned to pre-lockdown rates 14 days after lockdown began | 21:53 |
| tinwhiskers | (9 days after peak) | 21:53 |
| de-facto | Vietnam is really impressive they just control it | 21:55 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 21:55 |
| de-facto | btw another question: any idea about the "serial time" for virion production? how long is the average duration between one virion infecting a cell and its "children" being released from the cell infecting another cell? | 22:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | good question | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Crossposto che su r/Italy mi hanno rimosso il post. Vorrebbero tutto nel megathread. → https://is.gd/Mz1jeT | 22:29 |
| LjL | It is happening to workers in the Healthcare for which part-time quarantine is introduced : it means that after contact with a positive person, you are required to remain in quarantine during your free time, but you must continue to work. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https://sanita.usb.it/leggi-notizia/usb-introdotta-la-quarantena-part-time-il-personale-sanitario-diventa-carne-da-macello-il-9-novembre-presidio-al-ministero-della-sal | 22:39 |
| LjL | ute-1451-1-1.html | 22:39 |
| LjL | good idea, so you can infect other doctors too | 22:39 |
| ryouma | is it naive to say that you are unlikely to infect anybody not already infected? | 22:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2.0/html/tileshop_pmc/tileshop_pmc_inline.html?title=Click on image to zoom&p=PMC3&id=7224694_elife-57309-fig1.jpg 10h | 22:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7224694/ | 22:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://i.imgur.com/8SfIhJq.png | 22:46 |
| de-facto | wow thanks | 22:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yw | 22:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Tra le grandi contraddizioni del nostro bel paese: Il medico della mutua che dà solo due giorni di permesso all'insegnante con sintomi da COVID → https://is.gd/NB9ulb | 22:47 |
| de-facto | so its like R=1000 with "serial time" of 10h, e.g. N(t) = N(t0) * 1000^(t/10h) ? | 22:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | err yes, if you want to write it like that, seems about right | 22:49 |
| de-facto | well 10h plus some time to find another cell i guess | 22:50 |
| de-facto | but that might be its direct neighbor so probably quite fast | 22:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | according to ^^^ 10 minutes to ebter cell, maybe minutes to get to a new cell | 22:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | enter* | 22:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also this is data not derived from tracking one virus with a camera. Also in biological data like this an error/noise of even factor 2 is not unusual. So the time to get from one cell to another is probably already implied in this, and it'S really two magnitudes too small to be of any relevance | 23:02 |
| de-facto | yeah so its more or less those 10 h generation time then | 23:04 |
| LjL | ryouma, i don't know if it's naive, but it is inaccurate if one is to believe the antibody survey that was done after the first wave in italy. healthcare personnel wasn't "endemically" infected, they had a similar percentage to the rest of the population | 23:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | what's slightly odd with your formula above: it ready as if it wants to imply that each 2nd generation virus finds its way to a new cell. That's definitely not true, so R!=1000 | 23:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | reads* | 23:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +30238 cases (now 9.4 million), +360 deaths (now 236057) since 2 hours ago — France: +12959 cases (now 1.4 million), +223 deaths (now 36788) since 16 hours ago — Canada: +756 cases (now 235189) since 2 hours ago | 23:09 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, why each second generation? | 23:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ech virus of 2nd generation, sorry for ambiguous wording | 23:19 |
| de-facto | i am not sure i follow what you say, if each lifetime cycle generates 1000 virions from one that would be the reproduction number right? | 23:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no, for being R it would require *each* of those 1000 wiruses find a new cell. Only then the cycle defining R is complete for all 1000 | 23:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | in other words after 2* 10h you don't get 1000^2 | 23:28 |
| de-facto | oh yes thats correct | 23:30 |
| de-facto | hmm so how many infections would occur on average from that one cell production cycle then? | 23:32 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, actually thats interesting, transfered back to case incidence there also would be quite some "dead ends" for infection chains, so cummulative numbers might be quite wrong if that is a significant part | 23:38 |
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