| tinwhiskers | it'll probably take about 5-8 weeks after the lockdown begins just to get back to the same numbers as when it started. Maybe they'll choose to take a break over xmas to make people's lives a bit more pleasant, but then they'll be starting again from an even worse point than when they started this time round. | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| Jigsy | 3>Maybe they'll choose to take a break over xmas | 00:05 |
| Jigsy | Then back to square one. | 00:05 |
| LjL | so, to Brazil's government, COVID is nothing much and lockdowns are ridiculous, but mandatory vaccinations are fine | 00:09 |
| LjL | i can see the population being thrilled | 00:09 |
| LjL | oh, Bolsonaro doesn't want it mandatory, it's a local governor | 00:11 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 00:14 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 1.0 million confirmed cases (1.6% of the population) and 46717 deaths (4.5% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 33.5 million tests were performed (3.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 00:14 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 00:23 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there have been 709335 confirmed cases (1.2% of the population) and 38826 deaths (5.5% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 16.0 million tests were performed (4.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.5% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 11.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 00:23 |
| LjL | damn we're behind | 00:23 |
| LjL | %cases lombardy | 00:24 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Lombardy, Italy, there have been 195744 confirmed cases (1.9% of the population) and 17535 deaths (9.0% of cases) as of 18 hours ago. 196302 tests were performed (99.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 15.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lombardy for time series data. | 00:24 |
| LjL | sorry how many tests were positive?! | 00:24 |
| de-facto | prodormo[m], in regards to your question about mathematical models: Its like always in math, the predictions or statements are as good as the assumptions (or axioms) they are derived from, so in the case of COVID modeling some assumptions and parameters are well known, for other there are no exact values known and the best available are estimates. That means predictions of such models should be understood as: IF we can assume that | 00:33 |
| de-facto | <assumptions, parameters>, then to our best knowledge we can derive from our model this and that prediction... | 00:33 |
| de-facto | so they not a crystal ball that can predict the future, but they can help with projecting trends and developments to our best knowledge of the situation | 00:34 |
| de-facto | for extrapolating trends to very near future they might be quite accurate, but longterm predictions become increasingly challenging with time, actually quite similar to weather predictions accurate on short term but with large error bars in distant future | 00:37 |
| de-facto | that partly also comes from the fact that most parameters themselves are not constants but rather drift with time and small variations in starting values may potentially amplify exponentially with time or even may have threshold effects that lead to bifurcations (Y-splits in parameter trajectory space) | 00:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As COVID cases soar and second lockdown is announced, the UK government launches review into toilets. Yes, really → https://is.gd/nvNYhz | 00:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Prince William contracted Covid-19 in April at a similar time to his father Prince Charles, Kensington Palace sources tell BBC → https://is.gd/axokHp | 00:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Prince William ‘Struggled to Breathe,’ as He Secretly Battled Coronavirus → https://is.gd/MuS4mz | 01:08 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Association between SARS-CoV-2 infection, exposure risk and mental health among a cohort of essential retail workers in the USA (80 votes) | https://oem.bmj.com/content/early/2020/10/11/oemed-2020-106774 | https://redd.it/jm22hs | 01:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Boris Johnson accused of 'giving in to scientific advisers' as England heads for lockdown → https://is.gd/y8q5FD | 01:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: I asked for help by my epidemiologist master regarding correlation between weather and R. He helped me out with a few links and I found >>coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, also appears to be sensitive to the climate in laboratory settings<< on p.3 of https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.08.20190918v1.full.pdf I'd like somebody else to also study this paper further for more in-detailinfo in it or linked by it | 01:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | oops, truncated citation :-/ >>While the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, also appears to be sensitive to the climate in laboratory settings, case data has yet to reveal a clear environmentally-driven trend<< | 01:29 |
| de-facto | thats quite interesting, yet i guess in practice it will be difficult to distinguish between change in behavior of susceptible and change in transmissibility of the pathogen itself | 01:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | in practice those aspects get covered by the description and evaluation of the study | 01:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also, when neither / nor is visible, chances are both don't apply. No need to distinguish between them | 01:37 |
| de-facto | i have to read that paper with some time, i think it may deserve that | 01:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | my thinking :-) | 01:40 |
| LjL | Omg Boris Johnson gave in to SCIENTIFIC ADVISERS?! Treason! | 01:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | of course, as always "absence of proof is not proof of absence", but I still miss a plausible explanation how whole europe from south where I do christmas holidy in t-shirt to north where they never wear just a t-shirt and shorts even in summer, could start 2nd wave within a 2 week timespan | 01:43 |
| de-facto | good point | 01:46 |
| ryouma | migration? | 01:51 |
| ryouma | i fear snowbirds | 01:51 |
| ryouma | in az | 01:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's what I wondered a few hours ago while chatting with my epidemiologist - might it be true that whole germany has so high mobility that it performs like one huge mostly homogeneous and in-sync system that doesn't need an "external" *global* stimulus to change it's behaviour like start of 2nd wave? | 01:54 |
| cmpx[m] | <ryouma "i fear snowbirds"> Snowbirds from where that are worse than AZ? | 01:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | s/germany/europe/ ohmy | 01:55 |
| cmpx[m] | East coast Snowbirds are not going to their winter hideaways because the Northeast has been way better at response than Florida has. | 01:55 |
| ryouma | cmpx[m]: idk where is worse, if any, but assumed some are at this time (e.g. nd). i tried looking up sources but they seem to be from various places mostly in west and north i think. | 01:59 |
| ryouma | cmpx[m]: incidentally the curves are surprisingly similar http://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=Florida;Arizona&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff | 02:10 |
| ryouma | florida is of course notorious | 02:12 |
| cmpx[m] | ryouma: I meant that on the east coast, FL is the snowbird state, and their numbers are keeping New England snowbirds away | 02:14 |
| cmpx[m] | I was curious if your situation was opposite, that the snowbirds were at higher numbers. | 02:14 |
| ryouma | yes, i understood your meaning. it is interesting that the snowbirds are smart. | 02:14 |
| cmpx[m] | Most snowbirds are at risk people...and have money to play with in their travels. 😁 | 02:15 |
| ryouma | i have no data on snoburds | 02:15 |
| LjL | what's the problem with snowbirds? | 02:16 |
| ryouma | LjL: some places increase their populations by maybe a factor of 2 or so. some of the migrants might be coming from major hotspots. | 02:17 |
| cmpx[m] | I am not faulting them. Most on the east coast were hard working retirees who earned their snowbird status, not wealthy seasonal travelers | 02:17 |
| LjL | ryouma, these birds can carry COVID? | 02:17 |
| ryouma | LjL: humans | 02:17 |
| LjL | oh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowbird_(person) | 02:18 |
| ryouma | https://www.vacationsmadeeasy.com/TheBLT/30ThingsYouProbablyDidntKnowAboutSnowbirds.html | 02:18 |
| cmpx[m] | They are seasonal residents usually that try to stay in mild climates, like New England in the summer, Florida in the winter. | 02:18 |
| cmpx[m] | But to my prior point, East Coast US Snowbirds are not the wealthy, they are folks who worked their way into retirement and it's rewards | 02:19 |
| cmpx[m] | See also, vulnerable age for covid | 02:20 |
| ryouma | not sure why you state and then repeat that? i was not referring to anything about them, except that they might migrate from worse place. | 02:22 |
| ryouma | s | 02:22 |
| ryouma | even worse* | 02:22 |
| cmpx[m] | I was responding to LjL question | 02:23 |
| ryouma | alkso that specific spots in snowbird destinations will increase their population by a pretty large factor, thus possibly an issue for hospitals | 02:23 |
| ryouma | might* | 02:23 |
| cmpx[m] | My curiosity was more about the difference between snowbirds in one part of the US vs another. Here, snowbirds would be less of a risk and more at risk if they migrated...I was trying to understand what it would be like there. | 02:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I don't think we got many "snowbirds" in EU, however we got quite a few immigrant workers who, some of them, help with crop harvesting, in slaughterhouses etc and they travel home for visits frequently | 02:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Reform UK: Brexit party to rebrand as anti-lockdown voice → https://is.gd/yPd0br | 02:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | however if those were drivers, we would see hotspots where they work. We don't though in large scale, only an occasional one, while mosz of cases are unclear origin now but most certainly not related to slaughterhouses or harvesting | 02:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the major problem we got here in germany right now is: for 3/4 of cases we don't know at all where and how they caught it | 02:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so backtracking to sourceclusters is broken and this spoils the complete concept of tracking and quarantine | 02:34 |
| cmpx[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 "the major problem we got here in"> Contact tracing seems to have been abandoned, sadly. | 02:34 |
| cmpx[m] | That's across the board | 02:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | which in turn makes R_eff go up even further and so it's a 2nd order vicious circle | 02:35 |
| cmpx[m] | Seems it should be easy with cell phones and realtime data...not sure why it wasn't focused on. | 02:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | GDPR blabla | 02:37 |
| cmpx[m] | Opt in...and US has no excuse considering who runs the FCC | 02:37 |
| cmpx[m] | Ugh, I digress | 02:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also acceptance and compliance is already low for the corona warn app | 02:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Prince William tested Covid positive in April: Report → https://is.gd/Ky8rvi | 02:38 |
| ghost_rider[m] | cmpx: there is contact tracing/tracking just happen that's not public. | 02:39 |
| cmpx[m] | ghost_rider: elaborate | 02:40 |
| cmpx[m] | I am not disagreeing I am just curious about your experience | 02:41 |
| ghost_rider[m] | cmpx: I don't have experience just year's of following news, documentaries and so on. | 02:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there is no such thing like useful real time location tracing, which would be the only thing to base stealth contact tracing on | 03:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | at least not at large sacle | 03:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, actually that's not true anymore for smartphones that are "always online" and so do transmit (all sorts of data traffic) every few minutes | 03:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | still it's not really useful for contact tracking | 03:13 |
| cmpx[m] | You don't need realtime, you need historical tracking (14 days or so) and realtime alerts based on history. Ita not that difficult, and a false positive report is more important than no report at all IMHO | 03:13 |
| cmpx[m] | * You don't need realtime, you need historical tracking (14 days or so) and realtime alerts based on history. Its not that difficult, and a false positive report is more important than no report at all IMHO | 03:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, this doesn't exist unless you install an app for it | 03:14 |
| de-facto | btw the cell phone network providers have mobility data for their customers in real time | 03:14 |
| cmpx[m] | Behind the scenes, at least in the US, have shown they have this data | 03:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | recently iOS and android included the function into their core OS but you got to enable it deliberately via an app you install | 03:15 |
| de-facto | they even provided that data in anonymized form to institutions like RKI | 03:15 |
| de-facto | it does not depend on phone software, its a function of the cell towers and the GSM/UMTS/LTE/5G networks themselves | 03:16 |
| de-facto | they have to locate the customer devices in order to prepare tower handovers etc | 03:16 |
| de-facto | its done by signal strength and accurate to below 100m or such | 03:16 |
| de-facto | probably even below 10m | 03:17 |
| cmpx[m] | I get that, but will also say that early in the US restrictions, my experience on VZ and ATT was that they were running background location checke | 03:17 |
| cmpx[m] | * I get that, but will also say that early in the US restrictions, my experience on VZ and ATT was that they were running background location checks | 03:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: nope, not really. networks know the cell you're in, when you entered new and thus left the old cell. And they may locate you in the times in between those cell handovers when you start or receive a call or SMS, or transmit internet data | 03:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and the resulution per default is just cell size granularity | 03:18 |
| de-facto | they constantly track from all the reachable towers its not only cell size because they have to prepare and optimize with several towers and also its constantly updated because the device has to be reachable | 03:19 |
| cmpx[m] | DocScrutinizer05: you forget about cooperating hotspots. It's way smaller an area than you think | 03:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there is U-TDOA which is trilateration (see wiki) but that's _usually_ only done when needed for 911 calls or assisted GPS. It's very precise down to 5m or somesuch nowadays | 03:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | cmpx[m]: nope, I'm very aware and up to date of what they can do and usually will do | 03:20 |
| de-facto | i dont know the details but i think its like the device sends a list with reception strengths and the network localizes it with that and pushes it on the best tower or such | 03:21 |
| cmpx[m] | That's correct, your last comment matched what I was saying | 03:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also obviously trilateration needs the device to transmit and that's not done frequently, if only to save battery | 03:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Protests in Brazil support president in anti-vaccine stance → https://is.gd/G7ZpuI | 03:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | default network settings are to tzrack which cell you're in, to know where you are available for inbound calls. This only happens on cell handover and on T3212-timeout which happens usually every 6 hours | 03:25 |
| cmpx[m] | As I mentioned, both Verizon and ATT were using heavy location based tracking based on their baked in apps back in the early stages. I work across the street (about 300m) from a Verizon location and was considered essential during our lockdown. My phone triggered constantly for services I couldnt stop based on VZ | 03:26 |
| cmpx[m] | I'll find a SS give me a few | 03:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the network could reduce T3212 to maybe 20min, or send a silent SMS or the like every minute, to make the device transmit a reply that could get trilaterated, but that's pretty much the limit you could achieve, at the cost of leaching capacity from battery rapidly | 03:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | all this applies only if you're not booked in to "data" via a APN, this would allow to simply literally ping your phone | 03:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the network's NAT/firewall usually blocks pings from internet to device, since again.... battery | 03:33 |
| cmpx[m] | That narrows you down to a location based on triangulation and a VZ store or partner location | 03:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there's no doubt any app on your device may use location services | 03:35 |
| cmpx[m] | That's carrier specific, and was enforced when we were in lovkdown | 03:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's an immanent sevice of your device's OS, howver an app has to start it | 03:36 |
| cmpx[m] | * That's carrier specific, and was enforced when we were in lockdown | 03:36 |
| cmpx[m] | I agree and understand, I am just saying, they have the data to contract trace...by why haven't they | 03:36 |
| cmpx[m] | Everyone already read the fine print when they signed their cell phone agreement...right? 😂 | 03:37 |
| ghost_rider[m] | DocScrutinizer05: I don't think you need a SMS, call or what so ever. Cell from time to time do a sort of ping. | 03:39 |
| ghost_rider[m] | "But, in the city, all of the constantly pinging cell phone towers keep close track of our movements and where we are at any given time. If you’d like to refrain from being tracked entirely, you’ll have to shut that phone off. " | 03:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ghost_rider[m]: afaik not. http://gsm-optimization.blogspot.com/2012/04/t3212.html | 03:40 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Corporation is obey by law to keep records for 6 months, for example in some countries. | 03:41 |
| cmpx[m] | US I would say does not abide by this, FCC is in the telco pockets | 03:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | again, carriers want to provide an optimum service, which means long standby which means no frequent transmit activity of device | 03:41 |
| ghost_rider[m] | On top of that you have the famous 3 letter guys that... Their business... | 03:42 |
| LjL | with the newly-imposed lockdowns in multiple countries in Europe, don't forget to check https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ in a few days | 03:42 |
| ghost_rider[m] | https://www.lawtechnologytoday.org/2017/06/gps-tracking/ | 03:42 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, they go pretty quiet once they have established on a cell. If that connection drops out they start looking for new cells and that runs th ebattery down relatively quickly. | 03:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ^^^ | 03:43 |
| tinwhiskers | of course if you've got any apps using data and *they* periodically ping their server or whatnot then you may have some activity. | 03:44 |
| ghost_rider[m] | well, when using data then that's constantly, just run hostapd or other to see how much the device talks even without being used. | 03:45 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Afk | 03:46 |
| LjL | you debated a lot on cell tracking but any Android phone with the GApps and that has not opted out will be tracked and have a *cough* "private" location history accessible to the user (but stored on Google servers) | 03:46 |
| LjL | which i believe is what they use to aggregate the mobility reports i linked | 03:47 |
| tinwhiskers | heh. yeah | 03:47 |
| LjL | the granularity on that depends on how effective network location is in a given place (or becomes GPS accuracy if GPS is on) | 03:47 |
| LjL | in cities, it's accurate to the block *at least* | 03:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: the mobility reports are based on cell handover only | 03:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | at least the ones I know | 03:49 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, how would they know whether the customer is in a residential place, a grocery or pharmacy, parks, public transport stations... just based on cell handovers? | 03:49 |
| LjL | surely those things need wifi beacons to know about | 03:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK's Nigel Farage set to relaunch Brexit Party as anti-lockdown party → https://is.gd/ZkMVzy | 03:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I never seen mobility reports that were such finegrained | 03:50 |
| LjL | well then click on my link...? | 03:50 |
| LjL | and then select your favorite country and look at the PDFs, or if you feel fancy, get the CSV | 03:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ooh, google. Yeah obviously they wouldn'T even have access to cell handover metadata, they literally _need_ to use their own clients/users' deliberately shared-to-server location data | 03:52 |
| cmpx[m] | Anonaized data is the scapegoat | 03:52 |
| cmpx[m] | Err anonaized | 03:53 |
| cmpx[m] | Wtf autocarrot | 03:53 |
| LjL | uh well they have access to when the phone changes its cell as well | 03:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hmm, sort of, indirectly | 03:54 |
| tinwhiskers | The baseline is the median value, for thecorresponding day of the week, during the five-week period 3 Jan – 6 Feb 2020 - It's a shame the baseline data isn't from the same five week period, the year before, rather than all being based on Jan-Feb data. | 03:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | via their OS collected data from device, not from network metadata | 03:54 |
| LjL | yes | 03:54 |
| LjL | but i did mention that like multiple times | 03:54 |
| LjL | "any Android phone with the GApps and that has not opted out" | 03:55 |
| cmpx[m] | Any pnone | 03:55 |
| tinwhiskers | no | 03:55 |
| tinwhiskers | as LjL says. | 03:55 |
| LjL | not any phone for sure | 03:55 |
| cmpx[m] | Wifi location is a thing | 03:55 |
| LjL | i don't know what Apple does, but "any phone" is just wrong | 03:55 |
| LjL | cmpx[m], wifi location is a thing on the Nokia phone next to me that has NO wifi? | 03:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | my point however was that carriers do _not_ have any such finegrained in location and tiimeframe data of you | 03:56 |
| tinwhiskers | I doubt this google data includes Apple location data | 03:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | unless you run an app they provide | 03:56 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, it doesn't, but i guess the nitpicking that's being done on my statements is not based on the particular mobility data | 03:56 |
| cmpx[m] | Does it know what wifi APs are nearby despite it's wifi access? | 03:56 |
| tinwhiskers | how is that relevant? | 03:56 |
| LjL | cmpx[m], what? | 03:56 |
| cmpx[m] | Phones check for wifi access despite being connected | 03:57 |
| LjL | what do you mean "despite being connected" and "for wifi access" | 03:57 |
| LjL | and how does that related to a phone that has NO WIFI | 03:57 |
| tinwhiskers | phones may get their location from a variety of methods including wifi, GPS, etc. but this relies on them reporting to google, which they don't all do. | 03:57 |
| LjL | relate* | 03:58 |
| cmpx[m] | Knowing what wifi is around a phone ties it to a location | 03:58 |
| LjL | yes, and you don't know that if a phone has no wifi | 03:58 |
| tinwhiskers | only if the phone reports that info to someone and that someone uses it | 03:58 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, to be fair it can also be done the other way around if the phone isn't clever enough to change its MAC around when broadcasting wifi searches | 03:59 |
| cmpx[m] | See also, carrier rules and contract agreement | 03:59 |
| LjL | cmpx[m], see also, what you are saying does not make sense | 03:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | tzz, see schematic of any phone | 03:59 |
| LjL | oh good lord | 03:59 |
| LjL | you people are lumping together things that i'm clearly treating as separate | 03:59 |
| LjL | repeatedly talking about wifi being an issue on a phone that has no wifi | 04:00 |
| LjL | and not answering my questions about that | 04:00 |
| cmpx[m] | How so? If your phone opens wifi periodically to see what's around, it knows where you are | 04:00 |
| LjL | this is not funny | 04:00 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: oh, true. | 04:00 |
| LjL | cmpx[m], I AM TALKING | 04:00 |
| LjL | ABOUT A PHONE | 04:00 |
| LjL | WITH NO | 04:00 |
| LjL | WIFI | 04:00 |
| cmpx[m] | It has no wifi capabilities? | 04:00 |
| LjL | (and also, any Android phone without the GApps) | 04:00 |
| tinwhiskers | cmpx[m]: yes, but your phone knowing where it is is not the same as google knowing where it is unless you phone sends that data to google | 04:00 |
| LjL | cmpx[m], the fact i said it's a Nokia should have been a clue | 04:00 |
| LjL | but then so should have the fact i have repeated like ten times that it has NO WIFI | 04:01 |
| LjL | godfuckingdammit | 04:01 |
| cmpx[m] | Nokia not having wifi capabilities means it's 10 plus years old, else I am ignorant, which is 💯 possible | 04:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | cmpx[m]: would you mind listening to tinwhiskers ? | 04:03 |
| cmpx[m] | I'm listening but I am not understanding a current phone on current cell networks not being wifi capable | 04:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | cmpx[m]: you obviously don't or you would have noticed that tinwhiskers didn'T argue that at all | 04:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Lockdown in England could be extended, UK minister warns → https://is.gd/wGRZG3 | 04:08 |
| cmpx[m] | I'm at a loss...if you have a carrier that has control of your device above and beyond what safeguards you may put in place, they have your location, regardless of whether or not you enable wifi, gps info. I am not sure what I am missing, and I'm not trying to be antagonistic | 04:10 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Police break up two New York Halloween parties that drew nearly 1,000 people (10046 votes) | https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-halloween-new-york-0be377dc-ef40-47b7-ba95-da67678b78d4.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100 | https://redd.it/jmb3or | 04:11 |
| LjL | cmpx[m], you are missing the fact that we are not always talking about any and every location techniques. i talked SPECIFICALLY about Google's network location with the GApps installed, and you "corrected" that by saying "18<25cmpx[m]18> Any pnone". that's inaccurate on its face since, for starters, a non-Android phone wouldn't have the GApps... and indeed, when i mentioned a Nokia phone without wifi (remember? NO WIFI) i was talking about a rather | 04:14 |
| LjL | old phone. however, such phones are used by, for example, my parents, who are vulnerable people. guess who else uses those phones? other elderly people! there are also a ton of phones STILL sold on the market (especially for the elderly, but also some old-style Nokias) without wifi | 04:14 |
| LjL | even if those HAD wifi anyway, they wouldn't have Google machinery to network-locate you with it, since they are not... Google | 04:14 |
| LjL | *i* at a loss as to how this wasn't clear before but i hope it's clear now or i'll have to quiet myself for another ten minutes lest i slip into italian style... addressing... of people | 04:15 |
| ketas | LjL so attacky | 04:17 |
| LjL | ketas, i can only say "NO WIFI" so many times until my fingers get tired and i get annoyed | 04:17 |
| ketas | why was wifi needed? | 04:17 |
| LjL | oh lord | 04:17 |
| LjL | please i beg you, just read the scrollback | 04:18 |
| ketas | the backlog is looong | 04:18 |
| LjL | that's why i am tired | 04:18 |
| cmpx[m] | I wasn't thinking about legacy phones (trackphones in the US mostly) I was talking about the majority of phones, and their ability to track. I'm not looking for an argument, but an understanding. | 04:19 |
| LjL | well "any phone" is a different claim from "the majority of phones" | 04:19 |
| cmpx[m] | All phones meant Android and iPhones...the current majority | 04:19 |
| ketas | using wifi for corona purposes? | 04:19 |
| cmpx[m] | Not just Android | 04:20 |
| LjL | my ENTIRE point was really that even without carrier-based stuff, the MAJORITY of phones record people's locations by means of network location being fed into the GApps (and probably something similar for Apple phones), and this was specifically related to the Google mobility reports i linked | 04:20 |
| LjL | cmpx[m], well, then you know what | 04:20 |
| LjL | if you mean something you should say that instead of saying something else and then acting confused | 04:20 |
| LjL | especially when you are purporting to correct another person | 04:20 |
| ketas | network location works too | 04:20 |
| LjL | if your correction is technically and practically incorrect i'm gonna feel like you're just being annoyed | 04:20 |
| LjL | ketas, yeeeeeeeeees that's the whole thing i'm talking about | 04:21 |
| LjL | ogd | 04:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | of course when you install the VZ app to find next shop, then this app has access to the phone's location services which in turn use wifi | 04:37 |
| cmpx[m] | I don't use their app, I use the website. | 04:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and that's any difference? | 04:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | in times of webapps | 04:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | search for browser location API | 04:38 |
| cmpx[m] | Also the service I posted was enabled when my state started tracking locations of folks during lockdown | 04:39 |
| cmpx[m] | AFAIK websites don't trigger system services | 04:41 |
| ketas | there's location api | 04:41 |
| ketas | it sends it if you agree | 04:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, I feel tired, probably also about this conversation. I anyway seem to see now where you're coming from. Things are not as sinister as you seem to suspect they were | 04:42 |
| ketas | china? :O | 04:42 |
| ketas | :P | 04:42 |
| metreo | =-O | 04:43 |
| cmpx[m] | It's not that I am calling it sinister, I was simply trying to state that "they' already have better tracking/tracing ability than we are giving them credit for, and are not using it. | 04:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and I tried for a long time now to explain "No, They Dont!" | 04:45 |
| cmpx[m] | My state, which was a hotspot early, has no tracing apps, it's generally been abandoned across the board in the US. | 04:45 |
| LjL | well it barely does anything in Italy, not sure about the rest of the EU | 04:45 |
| cmpx[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 "and I tried for a long time now "> I will respectfully disagree | 04:45 |
| LjL | https://www.immuni.italia.it/dashboard.html this is a tiny percentage of the tracing that's going on | 04:46 |
| LjL | (despite the tracing being all sort of messed up right now) | 04:46 |
| LjL | and downloads are declining sharply without having reached 1/6 of the population | 04:46 |
| LjL | probably after we all learned that most regions were actually NOT heeeding requests to be marked as a positive because they didn't have (or want) the infrastructure to give positive people codes to upload their contacts on the app | 04:47 |
| cmpx[m] | It needed to be embraced from the getgo, IMHO we had the means, but motivation or drive, in the US anyway | 04:47 |
| metreo | 1/2 of people probably don't understand why they need an app | 04:48 |
| LjL | well that's why there should be a ton of PSA that are designed as well as possible to explain it effectively | 04:48 |
| metreo | I agree, but most people would rather limp along than do something to better their situation | 04:49 |
| cmpx[m] | Again, my state didn't even have a proper app despite being one of the first US states to spike...it's a bigger political issue, but a communication issue at it's base | 04:49 |
| LjL | hopefully Google and Apple hurry up with their "express" system | 04:50 |
| LjL | it may not be needed much in Europe anymore, we're at the stage where we need hard lockdowns, not apps | 04:51 |
| cmpx[m] | TBH they should have built the apps as well, relying on independent areas to create their own seems to have been a miss | 04:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: WHO chief goes into quarantine after contact tests positive for Covid-19 → https://is.gd/p65Vin | 04:53 |
| cmpx[m] | Leveraging the service was a good start, but searching the app stores, so few US states took advantage | 04:53 |
| metreo | Tedros is sheltering in place? | 04:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I just mention for a goodnight: apple and google cooperated on developing a proper contact traciing system. They opted for BT as the only measure they considered fit for accomplishing the task and despite massive bashing and pressure from governments which don't understand that fact, they keep stating that it can't get implemented for older phones that don't support BT LE. So much for "carriers or even governments have the means for | 04:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | contact tracing everybody without their knowledge" - NO THEY DONT | 04:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | o/ | 04:55 |
| ketas | what about network positioning? | 05:10 |
| ketas | pretty piss poor accuracy for corona though | 05:11 |
| ketas | wait for 5g | 05:11 |
| ryouma | not able to follow this but surely even a quarter mile could be useful if you have a hotspot there | 05:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | CONTACT tracing is not useful with a quarter mile resolution | 05:17 |
| ketas | compulsory brain chips which react to hugs | 05:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no idea how hotspots come in | 05:18 |
| ryouma | DocScrutinizer05: do you want to go downtown today? | 05:19 |
| ryouma | quarter mile could work there if there are enough users | 05:19 |
| ryouma | but perhaps i have the wrong end of the stick as i did not follow conv | 05:19 |
| ketas | well that data helps | 05:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | how would a quarter mile location service help track my contacts, when contact is defined as <1.5m distance between me and somebody else? | 05:26 |
| ryouma | i did not say it would | 05:27 |
| ryouma | 21:19 <ryouma> DocScrutinizer05: do you want to go downtown today? | 05:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry you lost me | 05:27 |
| ryouma | assuming privacy issues all solved etc. | 05:27 |
| ryouma | IN PRINCIPLE even a quarter mile resolution will provide data for where there are hotspots | 05:28 |
| ryouma | does downtown have a hotspot? | 05:28 |
| ryouma | maybe not worth going into | 05:28 |
| LjL | this discussion has become confused and tiring beyond belief | 05:29 |
| tinwhiskers | this conversation is extremely painful | 05:29 |
| tinwhiskers | umm *snap* | 05:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | are you talking about wifi hotspots or corona hotspots? zhe latter was no topic in public discussion ever, nor a subject of contact tracing | 05:29 |
| ryouma | i apologize for jumping in and making it even worse | 05:29 |
| ryouma | i was just saying it could be useful for a purpose other than contact tracing in principle. this appers to be me screwing up your conversation. please ignore everything i have ever said anywhere at any time. | 05:31 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, it's still useful for other things | 05:31 |
| ryouma | end of transmission | 05:31 |
| LjL | ryouma, the conversation was already terrible before you jumped in | 05:31 |
| cmpx[m] | 🙋♂️my fault | 05:32 |
| ryouma | box male box | 05:32 |
| cmpx[m] | Bridge translation 😂 | 05:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | btw re BT LE, they notice _now_ that this isn't always a reliable way to determine distance between two devices. I really wonder why they didn't implement optional ultrasonic time-of-flight distance measuring. They didn't consider it when I suggested it back when, and seems they still don't ponder it | 05:44 |
| LjL | they should just drop this "1.34324 meters for 15 minutes" thing, and catch most BLE contacts. the apps are already useless enough as it is, there's no need to make them artificially more useless. people can definitely catch COVID from brief contacts with people who are further away than 2 meters | 05:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Anti-Lockdown Protests Rage in Barcelona → https://is.gd/aAzlGQ | 05:46 |
| LjL | as to ultrasounds, i can only guess, but it seems like a bit of a software-intensive thing, also it may require very realtime audio that underlying firmware doesn't provide | 05:47 |
| LjL | protests everywhere | 05:47 |
| ghost_rider[m] | People rage for being at home, this is a signal to game industry that they suck | 05:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hehe | 05:48 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Hope this new era pushes UBI, ... wold be great for me, I asked at school if they had retired course, they don't | 05:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: More Republicans follow COVID guidelines when they're told it will protect themselves: According to new research from the UBC Sauder School of Business, a different approach to public health messaging related to COVID-19 could potentially save more lives. → https://is.gd/tXD4oo | 06:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As Coronavirus Surges, Chastened Dutch Wonder, ‘What Happened to Us?’ → https://is.gd/x0FkGA | 06:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +17859 cases (now 9.5 million), +122 deaths (now 236473) since 9 hours ago — Belgium: +11789 cases (now 441018), +112 deaths (now 11737) since a day ago — France: +10970 cases (now 1.4 million) since 9 hours ago — Netherlands: +1066 cases (now 360927), +22 deaths (now 7456) since 16 hours ago | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: The effect of eviction moratoriums on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Justin Sheen et al, published on 2020-11-01 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.27.20220897 [... want %more?] | 07:17 |
| ghost_rider[m] | WHO chief in quarantine after exposure to COVID-19 carrier | 07:31 |
| tinwhiskers | r'oh roh | 07:32 |
| ghost_rider[m] | He will be fine, WHO better than him to know how to deal with it ? | 07:33 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 07:34 |
| jacklsw | yes | 07:51 |
| jacklsw | let him show us how to deal with covid | 07:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +11572 cases (now 1.4 million), +19 deaths (now 37038) since 47 minutes ago — Lombardy, Italy: +8607 cases (now 204351), +54 deaths (now 17589) since a day ago — Netherlands: +2178 cases (now 363105), +10 deaths (now 7466) since 47 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +1570 cases (now 1.0 million), +40 deaths (now 46762) since 47 minutes ago | 07:52 |
| tinwhiskers | I hope you're just joking about that. | 08:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: PM warns of virus deaths 'twice as bad' as spring: Boris Johnson is expected to tell MPs there is "no alternative" to the four-week England lockdown. → https://is.gd/ahEhSI | 08:26 |
| ghost_rider[m] | tinwhiskers: He will be fine, he haz contacts. | 08:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan opens airport coronavirus test lab for departing travellers → https://is.gd/qYSlBc | 08:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: Kajal Aggarwal’s engagement sari was made in the ‘thick of the lockdown’; take a look → https://is.gd/ZPxny4 | 08:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Global coronavirus death toll tops 1.2 million: More than 1.2 million people have died of coronavirus around the globe, according to an AFP tally from official sources at 0745 GMT on Monday. → https://is.gd/kC8mQu | 09:37 |
| drytrumpet | nick dtrum | 09:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Europe imposes new virus curbs as exasperation, anger grows: Germany on Monday led a further tightening of coronavirus restrictions in Europe that have triggered anger and frustration across the continent, while the COVID-19 crisis in the United States deepened. → https://is.gd/qTUOS5 | 09:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US Elections 2020: A tough campaign under the shadow of a pandemic → https://is.gd/l51Iwm | 10:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Mourners ‘kiss’ coronavirus infected bishop at Montenegro funeral → https://is.gd/it1Flp | 10:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: HHS relaxed oversight of problematic Covid-19 tests despite being told of accuracy concerns: Top HHS officials reduced already-minimal oversight of laboratory developed tests for Covid-19 despite being informed that the tests were plagued with quality issues. → https://is.gd/zmSYuL | 10:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Spike in prescribing dexamethasone to Covid-19 patients may do more harm than good: It is difficult for clinicians not to intervene when fighting a dangerous disease like Covid-19. But that doesn't justify prescribing drugs that could easily do more harm than good. → https://is.gd/ch2M2s | 10:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +943 cases (now 9.5 million), +28 deaths (now 236501) since 4 hours ago | 11:08 |
| mniehus[m] | https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-10/eric-rubin-corona-usa-scheitern-donald-trump-us-wahl (interview in german) disussing article https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812?query=featured_coronavirus | 11:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: The concept of “fatigue” in tackling covid-19: The concept of fatigue has been used to describe a presumed tendency for people naturally to become tired of the rules and guidance they should follow to prevent the spread of covid-19.1 The idea... → https://is.gd/e2xjm8 | 11:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +21926 cases (now 176177), +22 deaths (now 2348) since 5 hours ago — US: +4 cases (now 9.5 million) since an hour ago | 12:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: PM warns of virus deaths 'twice as bad' as spring: Boris Johnson is expected to tell MPs there is "no alternative" to the four-week England lockdown. → https://is.gd/ahEhSI | 12:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: US cases soar as Fauci warns of tough times ahead: Covid-19 cases hit record levels in the US just days before the 3 November election, with 99 321 new cases on 30 October. President Donald Trump insisted the country was “rounding the turn” on the... → https://is.gd/bG107c | 12:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +3 deaths (now 2351) since 53 minutes ago | 12:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: No Small Plan: Amid pandemic, Australian consumer brand Thankyou is looking to tackle global poverty → https://is.gd/mXC6WN | 13:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: “There is no alternative,” says Johnson, announcing new restrictions for England: New national measures to try to stem the rising number of cases of covid-19 in England will come into force on 5 November, as the government conceded that the surge in cases and hospital admissions... → https://is.gd/0Cl9Fx | 13:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +80 cases (now 9.5 million) since an hour ago — Switzerland: +11 deaths (now 2362) since an hour ago | 13:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Stillbirth rise during pandemic leads to safety review: Pregnancy and childbirth experts say women may have delayed seeking care during lockdown. → https://is.gd/jrO1jr | 14:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 and public compliance: A new study, led by the University of St Andrews, sheds fresh light on the conditions under which people in groups follow the behavior of others, which can help understand human behavior in relation to COVID-19 restrictions. → https://is.gd/dZbwRr | 14:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 02 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/dsKeDb | 14:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Trump administration funds a plasma firm based in owner’s condo; Russian company seeks to sidestep remdesivir patents → https://is.gd/jlDCrm | 15:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Biomimicry control for COVID diagnostics: Containing the scourge of COVID-19 requires testing of individuals, and isolating those who test positive, together with recent contacts, so as to prevent further spread. It is therefore critical to ensure that testing is independently verified so as to assure its accuracy. → https://is.gd/bq25rQ | 15:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +5042 cases (now 368147), +5 deaths (now 7463) since 8 hours ago — US: +2550 cases (now 9.5 million), +4 deaths (now 236505) since 2 hours ago | 15:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Hospitals plan to meet urgent need for post COVID-19 rehabilitation: As more people survive COVID-19 hospitalization, the need for rehabilitation may become increasingly important, according to a new study by Harvard Medical School researchers published in PM&R . → https://is.gd/IDSagS | 15:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Focus on COVID-19 deaths in under-65s for better insights into infection rates across populations, say researchers: Simply comparing the total number of deaths across countries may provide a misleading representation of the underlying level of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, because of large [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/CQAWzq | 16:01 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 found at six months in non-hospitalised individuals (93 votes) | https://www.uk-cic.org/news/cellular-immunity-sars-cov-2-found-six-months-non-hospitalised-individuals | https://redd.it/jmnjfm | 16:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: In Spain’s Canary Islands, tourists must carry negative COVID-19 test results → https://is.gd/XT4pad | 16:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT+: Novartis move to defuse controversy over U.S. drug discount program is rebuffed: “To terminate 340B discounts to safety-net hospitals in the middle of the third wave of the pandemic is inexcusable," said Maureen Testoni of 340B Health. → https://is.gd/UpGYLX | 16:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: The Scientific Literature’s Own Pandemic: One side effect of the coronavirus has been an explosion of lower-quality publications in the scientific literature. This has come in several forms, some more excusable than others. In the former category are the papers that were rushed out earlier this year, observational studies [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/15RBQ5 | 16:46 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 16:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Watch live: The World Health Organization holds a press briefing on the coronavirus as cases surge: Last week, the WHO said some countries may need to shut down nonessential businesses again as a way to take the "heat" out of worsening coronavirus outbreaks. → https://is.gd/FK6tfO | 16:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Trump campaign rallies led to more than 30,000 coronavirus cases, Stanford researchers say → https://is.gd/6x2mK8 | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +22253 cases (now 731588), +233 deaths (now 39059) since 23 hours ago — US: +8666 cases (now 9.5 million), +59 deaths (now 236564) since an hour ago | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: ‘Black Swan’ author: Global coronavirus response a case study of government incompetence and denial: "If we had instant, systematic testing, we wouldn't be here. We wouldn't be talking now about the pandemic," said Nassim Taleb, author of "Black Swan." → https://is.gd/e7q6zy | 17:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): 'I make no apology': Boris Johnson defends decision to impose a second lockdown in England → https://is.gd/AFIWm6 | 17:42 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Covid lockdowns are cost of self-isolation failures, says WHO expert (10016 votes) | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/covid-lockdowns-are-cost-of-self-isolation-failures-says-who-expert | https://redd.it/jmm10j | 18:17 |
| ghost_rider[m] | In WWII soldiers carry a donkey on their back, not because they care about the donkey but because it could trigger a mine | 18:22 |
| ghost_rider[m] | We need to control retarded people. | 18:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Get your flu shot: It might shield you from severe COVID: (HealthDay)—The coronavirus and the flu are two entirely different viruses. But a new study suggests those who get a flu vaccine face a considerably lower risk for being hospitalized if and when they get COVID-19. → https://is.gd/AF4aZU | 18:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Study provides clues on curbing the aggressive nature of coronavirus: Recent study by Estonian researchers at the University of Tartu explains how coronavirus is activated before attacking cells and what could help to impede that. The study, published in Scientific Reports, takes us a step closer to understanding why the spread [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/x8e0EN | 18:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Europe may see 'several' waves of COVID-19: experts: Europe risks being hit with further waves of coronavirus infections next year, France's scientific council has warned, as the continent scrambles to cope with a second deadly spike in COVID-19 cases. → https://is.gd/PeM83u | 19:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Merkel urges Germans to heed curbs for virus 'turnaround': Chancellor Angela Merkel pleaded with Germans on Monday to comply with new restrictions to achieve a "turnaround" in the fight against the pandemic, and held out hope that families would be able to spend Christmas together. → https://is.gd/d2PjcG | 19:13 |
| rpifan | yea | 19:15 |
| rpifan | unlikely | 19:15 |
| genera | first time that i hear it | 19:16 |
| tinwhiskers | genera: first time you heard of what? | 19:20 |
| genera | that she adressed the germans, on monday. i think they mean today | 19:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Hospitals competing for nurses as US coronavirus cases surge: As the coronavirus pandemic surges across the nation and infections and hospitalizations rise, medical administrators are scrambling to find enough nursing help—especially in rural areas and at small hospitals. → https://is.gd/9wrP71 | 19:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +48570 cases (now 1.3 million), +379 deaths (now 36257) since 3 days ago — France: +29976 cases (now 1.5 million), +416 deaths (now 37435) since 12 hours ago — United Kingdom: +17380 cases (now 1.1 million), +136 deaths (now 46853) since 12 hours ago — US: +13773 cases (now 9.5 million), +55 deaths (now 236619) since 2 hours ago | 19:51 |
| rpifan | hm | 19:55 |
| rpifan | bad | 19:55 |
| rpifan | remmember the second wave of the spanish flu killed the most ppl | 19:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus lockdown: PM warns UK faces 'medical disaster' without action → https://is.gd/tgqBCC | 20:26 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Whuan having party, here talking 2022 will not be solved. | 20:32 |
| rpifan | yea | 20:38 |
| rpifan | wuhan? | 20:38 |
| rpifan | party? | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Texas records highest number of total COVID-19 cases in US: Texas has surpassed California in recording the highest number of positive coronavirus tests in the U.S. so far, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. → https://is.gd/ontDIO | 20:45 |
| ghost_rider[m] | rpifan: I searched the sauce of the video national channel just showed up and could not found. Must be a embarrassment so is shadow banned, also goes against the propaganda that there is no freedom or party hard there. | 20:51 |
| LjL | according to the PM's speech in Parliament today, although the details may change, Italy is going to have a 3-tier system at the regional level based on "automatic" risk calculations, starting tomorrow or the day after. nationwide i.e. "tier 1" there will be a curfew (rumors are from 9pm but he didn't say), reduction of public transport capacity, and fully remote high schools; then he didn't exactly specify what tier 2 and tier 3 will entail, but we won't | 20:58 |
| LjL | be able to move between regions unless they are tier 1 | 20:58 |
| iz | regions within italy? | 20:58 |
| iz | ah yeah, seems like it must be from context | 20:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT+: Gilead faces pressure to relinquish valuable FDA voucher awarded with remdesivir approval: “Gilead is already being handsomely compensated through remdesivir sales and is slated to recoup any investment it made," Public Citizen argues. → https://is.gd/1MJaNW | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +17902 cases (now 9.5 million), +118 deaths (now 236737) since an hour ago — Canada: +98 cases (now 238959) since an hour ago | 21:06 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Republic yada guy of Portugal will address the nation to justify "emergency state" so there could be "lock downs" and other XXI century life style measures | 21:11 |
| LjL | iz, yes | 21:14 |
| de-facto | LjL, actually having a granular containment makes a lot of sense when mobility is somewhat restricted, hopefully it does not lead to testing resistances or hesitations before thresholds | 21:14 |
| LjL | Italy is divided into 30 regions | 21:14 |
| LjL | de-facto, i need to hear what will actually be the limitations in tier 2 and 3 regions before saying whether i like this, though | 21:15 |
| LjL | anything short of a full lockdown in Lombardy i'm not going to call enough | 21:15 |
| de-facto | afaik a read some newsline here from a town in bavaria that pulled back from a kindergarden study because they were just below the 50 threshold (quite some time ago) | 21:15 |
| de-facto | yeah i feel the same, the sooner, the more and the stricter containment the better, but i suspect they cant do that because people may go into opposition, on the other hand if people see that incidence still is on the raise after 2 weeks or such their compliance may be much better | 21:18 |
| de-facto | lets hope for the opposite and that people will go beyond what is demanded by law and maybe we might see good impact after 2 weeks | 21:18 |
| LjL | de-facto, well there has been opposition and even violent riots anyway despite the measures taken being pretty mild | 21:19 |
| de-facto | its very hard to tell if its sufficient or not | 21:19 |
| LjL | i think it's worse if every week you come up with a new decree and new restrictions | 21:19 |
| LjL | they will enrage the people who get restricted, and other people will think it's still not enough | 21:19 |
| LjL | just do the proper thing once | 21:19 |
| LjL | i know it's not easy to know what "the proper thing" is, but i'm just saying that i don't think doing it incrementally is going to make protests/riots better | 21:20 |
| de-facto | yeah i would fully agree, not sure if most of citizens would agree with that too though | 21:20 |
| LjL | the thing is we don't have the luxury of waiting 15 days (minimum) to see the effects of the measures taken and determine if they are enough of we need more | 21:20 |
| LjL | within 15 days of now our ICUs are projected to be full | 21:20 |
| LjL | and sub-ICU beds are actually in a worse situation already | 21:21 |
| de-facto | well protests or riots probably are because they think its too much containment (i would not assume they want to promote viral spread), so if they see that containment is not sufficient to stop the increase they might admit that further containment is necessary | 21:21 |
| de-facto | yes unfortunately that really could be the case, i also think its a one shot thing | 21:22 |
| de-facto | in Germany they double each 9 days or such | 21:23 |
| de-facto | and they will continue to do that because even if incidence will go down as soon as 2 weeks (probably too optimistic) hospitalizations probably will need another additional 10 days or such? | 21:24 |
| de-facto | so then for ICU beds in the most optimistic scenario it may be like 24 days delay to containment measures effect to arrive | 21:25 |
| de-facto | and with doubling times of 10 days it may be like 2^(24/10) = 5.27-fold of the incidence when measures were implemented | 21:26 |
| de-facto | or occupancy of ICU beds rather | 21:27 |
| de-facto | so yeah you are correct, it very much looks like one shot only | 21:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Germany shuts down as new virus curbs spur anger and frustration: Despite sporadic popular protests, Germany on Monday led a tightening of coronavirus curbs in many parts of Europe while the COVID-19 crisis deepened in the United States on election eve. → https://is.gd/nO6SOl | 21:30 |
| de-facto | and ICU bed occupancy may be quite long for some, i heard something like 3 weeks or such, is that realistic? | 21:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, is 10 days the doubling time of ICU? case doubling time is around 24 days according to offloop, and 17 for Italy | 21:31 |
| Arsanerit | Why does it say that Germany "led" this? | 21:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, i also heard high numbers like that :( | 21:31 |
| Arsanerit | Germany is not in charge of Europe. | 21:31 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, to "lead" can simply mean to do before others | 21:32 |
| LjL | although France locked everything down before Germany locked things partially down, iirc... | 21:32 |
| de-facto | they said that for Germany each 10 days the occupied ICU beds did double, each 10 days the occupied ventilators and incidence even each 7 days | 21:32 |
| de-facto | i am not sure if offloop displaye doubling time for current incidence or accumulated | 21:33 |
| Arsanerit | But Germany didn't do so before others. | 21:33 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's accumulated, it can be set to cases or deaths, but that's it | 21:34 |
| de-facto | yeah so thats not incidence then | 21:34 |
| de-facto | so simply counting on incidence curve its less than 10 days for germany not 24 | 21:36 |
| de-facto | fucking crazy fast doubling, actually its quite scary | 21:36 |
| LjL | de-facto, but cumulative is what tells you when you reach enough to fill all beds (although you also have to count recoveries, but eh) | 21:37 |
| de-facto | hmm i dont think so if cumulative involves cases since beginning of the year | 21:38 |
| de-facto | i think doubling time for incidence is simple t_double = t_serial ln(2) / ln(R(t_serial)) so for example with t_serial = 4 days and R(4days) = 1.35 it would be t_double = 4 days * ln(2) / ln(1.35) = 9.23 days | 21:41 |
| de-facto | yup going 9 steps on incidence curve roughtly gives half the value so it seems thats the doubling time of current peak for Germany | 21:43 |
| de-facto | so since incidence is the "supply" or source for severe cases i would guess that with a delay of 10 days or such this doubling time also should be visible on new cases needing ICU beds | 21:44 |
| de-facto | if that doubles occupied ICU beds depends on how many are already in use of course | 21:45 |
| de-facto | hmm a doubling time for cumulative of 550k cases by 24 days beginning with 20k cases and a serial time of 4 days would imply a very low reproduction number of only R = 1.05 | 21:53 |
| de-facto | with the assumed R=1.28 it rather would be 1.15M new cases so 1.15M/550k + 1 = 2.1 + 1 = 3.1-fold of current cumulative | 21:56 |
| Arsanerit | health minister say they can still handle a tripling of hospital cases, but that two triplings reaches the limit (they have tripled in the past two weeks) | 21:56 |
| de-facto | in Germany? | 21:57 |
| de-facto | currently we have 2243 occupied with 7970 available, so if occupied raise to 3.5-fold we would be full when not further capacities could be mobilized | 22:00 |
| de-facto | if we really still would have R=1.35 with 4 days serial time that would only be equivalent to 16.7 days | 22:03 |
| de-facto | holy shit, i hope they have additional healthcare cap | 22:03 |
| de-facto | its this one shot lockdown, otherwise we will be in SERIOUS trouble | 22:04 |
| de-facto | i calculated a worst case scenario because that is what we need to avoid | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from PLOS ONE: Development of lipL32 real-time PCR combined with an internal and extraction control for pathogenic Leptospira detection: by Ahmed A. Ahmed, Marga G. A. Goris, Marije C. Meijer At least two real-time PCRs for the early diagnosis of leptospirosis have been described, evaluated and validated. However, at least one other report [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Of5iMl | 22:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +18002 cases (now 9.5 million), +120 deaths (now 236857) since an hour ago — Canada: +879 cases (now 239838), +10 deaths (now 10217) since an hour ago | 22:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +4652 cases (now 9.5 million), +16 deaths (now 236873) since 19 minutes ago | 22:37 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, that statement is accurate for Germany if (it would continue like that), i just calculated it too, it would mean mobilizing the emergency reserve so then we really simply run out of every available resources in regards of ICU beds | 22:48 |
| Arsanerit | the limiting factor in Germany is not beds though, it's staff | 22:48 |
| de-facto | so this lockdown really is a one shot, if it fails we run into a disaster | 22:48 |
| de-facto | yes true | 22:48 |
| Arsanerit | How far R does it need to go? I guess that if R stays at 1 Germany averts disaster, but also can't afford ending the lockdown in a month. | 22:49 |
| de-facto | with a serial time of 4 days we may reach the emergency reserve threshold of the last 20k beds fully occupied in 30d (so around 1st Advent) with R=1.35 or in 49d (so around Christmas) with R=1.2 | 22:51 |
| de-facto | so hopefully R will go below that | 22:52 |
| de-facto | I am not sure if people are aware this lockdown really is one shot | 22:53 |
| Arsanerit | R at 0.0 would be nice | 22:56 |
| de-facto | a consistent R<1 already would be sufficient because then it would be under control | 22:57 |
| de-facto | but with R>1 its out of control and in exponential growth for months already | 22:57 |
| de-facto | i really dont understand how this could be acceptable in any thinkable scenario yet its the reality, so here we are now | 22:58 |
| Arsanerit | in June we were told that temporary R=1.1 is not a major problem when the base infection rate is low (it was around 200 nationwide at the time) | 22:59 |
| Arsanerit | gn | 22:59 |
| de-facto | yeah it was utterly wrong of course | 23:00 |
| de-facto | it would have been cheap to control it then | 23:00 |
| de-facto | now its very expensive | 23:00 |
| de-facto | we have to make the best out of it now, its never too late to take action, but it needs to be effective at any costs | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7594 cases (now 9.5 million), +20 deaths (now 236893) since an hour ago — Canada: +145 cases (now 239983), +1 deaths (now 10218) since an hour ago — Switzerland: +16 deaths (now 2404) since 4 hours ago | 23:52 |
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