libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2020-11-04

LjL	ubLIX[m], why doesn't Il Presidente Conte, like, churn out the next decree real quick instead of meeting irrelevant people	00:15
LjL	err	00:15
LjL	i didn't mean to challenge you specifically on that, i had your highlight already typed for other reasons -.-	00:15
de-facto	actually i think Merkel did understand the situation pretty well, she uses a scientific committee briefing her, but i also can understand frustration about that potentially there is not done enough (as I am of that opinion myself too)	00:17
LjL	you can take the brighest minds on the planet	00:17
LjL	the top scientists, the ones with a vision projected a thousand years from now	00:17
LjL	then you put them into a committee	00:18
LjL	they'll suddenly act like a bunch of rocks	00:18
ubLIX[m]	again, not up to date on Germany, but how much are the federal states currently fighting Merkel on lock down stringency?	00:19
de-facto	i am not sure about that because that is something that is happening behind the scenes, at least they do not fight publicly	00:20
LjL	local vs national governments does seem like a constant that's being highlighted in most countries during this extenuating circumstance	00:20
LjL	ubLIX[m], it's our PM, the feed said he went to talk to an aide of the pope's	00:21
LjL	(and someone from the main majority party)	00:21
de-facto	so for example schools are administered by the federal states while other things like lockdown and compensations, healthcare strategies etc are federal administered	00:21
LjL	a key factor in how things panned out in italy is that healthcare is regionally administrated	00:21
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +8553 cases (now 9.7 million), +92 deaths (now 238062) since 33 minutes ago	00:22
LjL	even though Italy isn't federal in the first place, but regions have obtained most of the power wrt healthcare	00:22
de-facto	it was an advantage when the situation was still somewhat heterogeneous but now its raising like crazy everywhere, so it does not make too much sense to not participate in strict measures because eventually it will just diffuse into every region	00:23
de-facto	it started in the west and south but now spread also into the east and north	00:24
de-facto	maybe because of population density (at some point incidence per citizen looked like a population density map)	00:25
de-facto	but maybe also because of open borders to other high incidence countries (	00:25
de-facto	or travel returnees etc	00:25
LjL	de-facto, i think it was never an advantage in italy to be honest, mainly because the worst affected region handled it horribly... but anyway, i expect from the next decree (unless they change their minds, they were still talking to parliament and the regions) that there will be a "tier" system similar to the UK, so every region will be handled differently, but in a centralized way: if some parameters get over some thresholds, some specific restrictions	00:26
LjL	automatically take place. so at least regional governors will no longer be the ones to haphazardly decide on their favorite restrictions	00:26
LjL	it has also been announced that there will be no freedom of movement between tier 2 and tier 3 regions	00:26
LjL	so i guess that effectively, we'll be closing borders	00:26
drytrumpet	seems, that Israel is doing well now.	00:26
LjL	did they close schools?	00:27
LjL	i recall they started doing very badly a bit after opening them	00:27
de-facto	i mean we had such thresholds for automatic restrictions at weekly 35/100k and another at 50/100k	00:27
LjL	de-facto, oh we don't like such simple things, so instead, they are using a model with 21 (!) parameters	00:27
de-facto	i am not sure how well that worked, apparently it could not contain it (though how to know how much worse it would have been without those?)	00:28
de-facto	in some locations they had a "traffic light" system (i think Berlin but also Austria) both have crazy high incidence now	00:28
de-facto	not sure if that is causative though	00:29
de-facto	also such automatic systems lead to resistances when approaching a threshold, local governments wanting to avoid or postpone reaching threshold because of fear about economic impact etc	00:29
de-facto	though if that would be any different without automatic systems remains unknown, probably even less containment then because they cant argue like "its out of our hands, we had to implement this and that because of the automatic restrictions"	00:30
de-facto	i think its very important to improve such systems because thats exactly that will remain post pandemic	00:31
de-facto	an optimized containment system that is approved by reality and not just a theoretic plan in some drawer	00:32
de-facto	to be honest i am a fan of simplicity because then people have a chance to understand it transparently	00:34
ubLIX[m]	simplicity lends itself to enforcement, too, i suppose	00:35
de-facto	it may be important that people understand and can verify things because it may improve trust into a system that restricts fundamental rights of freedom temporarily	00:35
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +33023 cases (now 9.7 million), +501 deaths (now 238563) since 18 minutes ago	00:37
Brainstorm	New from ProPublica: Robocalls Told at Least 800,000 Swing State Residents to “Stay Home” on Election Day. The FBI Is Investigating.: by Jack Gillum , ProPublica, and Jeremy B. Merrill for ProPublica ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. Having [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/2v2QSJ	00:40
ubLIX[m]	improving trust in political process. that seems like something that should be handled BEFORE pandemic	00:41
de-facto	indeed yet here we are and have to make the best out of it now	00:42
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Montenegrins mourn firebrand Bishop Amfilohije - Mourners in Montenegro defied anti-coronavirus restrictions at the funeral of the powerful pro-Serbia bishop Amfilohije. The cleric had died after developing pneumonia as a consequence of a coronavirus infection. → https://is.gd/3cufLZ	00:49
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1057 cases (now 9.7 million), +18 deaths (now 238581) since 34 minutes ago	01:07
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus: France reports 854 COVID-19 deaths, 36,330 new infections → https://is.gd/ufUT3N	01:07
LjL	so uhm, Israel is gradually leaving lockdown now (or something), and according to the NYT the lockdown was widely ignored but it worked anyway and experts think it's because of more widespread use of masks than during their first lockdown	01:14
LjL	if true, that might be good news for European countries entering lockdown now. if they do.	01:14
LjL	but, importantly for de-facto at least, Israel's second lockdown did involve closing schools again. google says they're gradually reopening the first grades just now	01:15
de-facto	yeah and their first opening lead to a huge spike, but they opened everything at same time afaik also schools so its hard to distinguish ratios of contributions to incidence	01:16
LjL	as usual	01:16
DocScrutinizer05	yeah :-/	01:17
de-facto	also having schools open may be different for different population densities, prevalence and group sizes as well as degree of consequently implemented containment measures such as air hygiene, strict separation of static group sizes, desynchronizing arrival and departure, mandatory masks etc pp	01:18
LjL	you'd do good devising our 21 parameters :P	01:20
de-facto	i dont have data to confirm, but somehow i have a bad feeling about that they always seem to emphasize that schools must stay open until very last moment	01:20
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +2649 cases (now 9.7 million), +35 deaths (now 238616) since 22 minutes ago	01:22
LjL	de-facto, i think there is some degree of EU-wide direction about these decisions that isn't really made public, because i see too many parallels between countries that i don't think would necessarily be there "naturally"	01:22
de-facto	for example right now i sit here in isolation because of waiting for a test result of a working colleges kid where they had an outbreak in class	01:22
LjL	so schools are the very last thing to close in Germany and in Italy... why? because it makes sense? because Italy likes to mimick Germany, or vice versa? or because they actually agreed on that?	01:23
de-facto	yeah it really looks like they do synchronize some things behind the scenes	01:23
de-facto	also that now many countries went into some sort of containment calling it "lockdown"	01:23
LjL	at the same time though there is a lot of disagreements between regions and such (here, at least; you said in Germany they keep any disagreement more behind the scenes)	01:24
LjL	they specifically didn't call it "lockdown" in italy, though. i guess that's true of France, Germany and the UK	01:24
de-facto	it makes sense to some degree, but on the other hand having heterogeneous concepts may also "test" strategies in parallel as in if a region closing schools would do MUCH better other regions may learn from that	01:24
LjL	but for France, that's a real lockdown, so that leaves Germany and the UK	01:24
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.S. CDC reports 230,893 deaths from coronavirus → https://is.gd/vACeS5	01:24
LjL	just so you know, i'm going to change the reddit criteria for showing r/worldnews from "rising" to "hot". it just tends to show way too many little-voted-on posts that may or may not carry any information (in the past two cases, very little)	01:26
LjL	but that may not work very well either, so if you see it misbehaving but differently, that'll be why	01:27
de-facto	and Brainstorm did report 854 covid fatalities for France thats a LOT way above their average of maybe 350 or such	01:27
LjL	oh	01:28
LjL	350 is surprisingly little (i mean, i know, not to the victims, but you know what i mean) though, given their numbers. we had about 350 today...	01:29
de-facto	yeah those are little spikes, afaik Italy would be ~225 on average	01:30
de-facto	but still those are exponentials too as the cause is of that nature	01:31
LjL	de-facto, well, i see from the graphs that France has had peaks of 550 before, mainly because they don't deport deaths on weekends, same as with cases. it's still a lot, but perhaps shouldn't be taken as an actual daily number	01:31
de-facto	yeah still they are on the raise, what i wanted to say is that its utterly necessary that they enter hard lockdown	01:32
LjL	they have, afaik, except for... schools	01:32
LjL	everything else is "can't go out unless essential"	01:33
de-facto	and their incidence does not look well at all	01:33
LjL	actually wait	01:34
LjL	i'm not sure if they stopped non-essential jobs...	01:34
LjL	one type of site we haven't really come across (unless i missed it, but i'm sure i've asked before) is one that details the restrictions in place in each country in a more granular way than just "lockdown" / "no lockdown"	01:35
LjL	and ideally with a timeline	01:35
de-facto	yes and that would be very important to link to incidence	01:35
LjL	there are some tracker sites that have a timeline of news, from there you can sometimes extract information about lockdowns, but it's not great	01:36
de-facto	like have time markers of specific category on the graphs or such	01:36
LjL	yeah	01:36
de-facto	oh btw the politicians also talk about those 3 generations for measures to become visible	01:36
LjL	3 generations meaning... 5+5+5 days?	01:37
de-facto	so what we derived a few days ago in the channel seems to be seen by them aswell	01:37
de-facto	year or roughtly 14 days	01:37
LjL	15 is roughly 14	01:37
de-facto	probably because of group size of compartmentalized cohorts in containment locked down or such (e.g. household sizes?)	01:38
LjL	these are the reasons allowed in France for leaving your home. doesn't tell me a whole lot though because "work" (travail) is listed, but does it have to be essential?	01:38
LjL	de-facto, but shouldn't they also consider the delays between getting it and being tested and then test to notification?	01:39
LjL	i forget about this 3 generation thing. i always assumed 15 days was a rough measure of those delays	01:39
LjL	(or 14 days)	01:39
de-facto	so first generation being infected directly at the instant measures take effect, second generation passing it inside isolated cohort, third generation incubation time until symptomatic for testing (basically like 2 serial times and one incubation time, roughly 3 serial times then), plus testing and reporting	01:42
de-facto	so assuming the shortest serial times of 4 days it would be 3*4 days = 12 days plus maybe 2-3 days for reporting, seems somewhat reasonable i guess	01:43
de-facto	*testing and reporting	01:44
de-facto	then it seems it runs into a dead end because of separation of cohorts (the goal of lockdowns)	01:44
de-facto	at least for a significant large part of such groups	01:45
de-facto	i wonder if they could see a correlation of family size and lockdown delayed effects in israel	01:45
de-facto	afaik some of their families are quite large	01:45
de-facto	but yeah you are somewhat correct, i also have a median serial time of 5.2 days in my head	01:47
LjL	de-facto, i think the 5.2 number probably comes from that study which determined when on average you were most contagious after getting it	01:48
LjL	maybe, perhaps	01:48
de-facto	%title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5	01:49
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nature.com: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 \| Nature Medicine	01:49
de-facto	old paper though	01:49
LjL	well i don't remember seeing newer papers with more refined figures	01:50
de-facto	"Separately, based on 77 transmission pairs obtained from publicly available sources within and outside mainland China (Fig. 1b and Supplementary Table 2), the serial interval was estimated to have a mean of 5.8 days (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.8–6.8 days) and a median of 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.1–6.4 days) based on a fitted gamma distribution, with 7.6% negative serial intervals (Fig. 1c)"	01:50
LjL	but there are so many papers	01:50
de-facto	what i like about this paper is transparency they published all their data and code on github	01:51
LjL	anyway, during out first lockdown, i think it took much longer than 14 days to see an effect. however, it's possible that our testing efforts were much more delayed than they can be now (not so sure, since we've exceeded testing capacity basically)	01:51
de-facto	and they also corrected bugs	01:51
LjL	de-facto, transparency? from china? impossible! (said a lot of people i've seen around here)	01:51
LjL	the question still remains, China in particular and East Asia in general are mostly keeping this under some degree of control. how can we be SO much worse	01:52
de-facto	https://github.com/ehylau/COVID-19	01:52
de-facto	yes obviously we are, since people are dying from it here not there	01:52
LjL	well my question is how, as in why	01:53
LjL	sure, China took incredibly strict measures	01:53
LjL	but they are also keeping what they've gained, they've barely ever slipped back	01:53
LjL	sometimes, some outbreaks, but they always controlled them quickly	01:53
LjL	and then even countries that aren't nearly as strict as China haven't had terrible situations, take Japan and SKorea	01:54
LjL	South Korea seemed pretty terrible, though... until Italy got worse, and then, MUCH worse	01:54
de-facto	i also think its somewhat a cultural thing, in many Asian countries it was considered respectless to not wear a mask e.g. in public transport, now look how much discussion and opposition it was in our cultures	01:54
de-facto	just as one example about attitude	01:54
LjL	de-facto, yeah but with all good things that can be said about masks, they have been compulsory indoors for a long time now in Italy, and yet we're still falling into the death spiral again	01:55
LjL	(although i'm told that on the Milan metro they aren't checking people for masks much anymore, and there are definitely people who don't wear them, and nobody has the guts to call them out)	01:55
de-facto	yeah i meant it just as example about the attitude independent of their value as transmissibility mitigation	01:56
LjL	fair enough	01:58
de-facto	if that is a generic attitude it may manifest on other containment efforts aswell, and that definitely makes a difference on a distributed basis where infections happen	01:58
de-facto	yet i also have to admit i am still puzzled about the threshold effect going off in most EU countries	02:00
Guest2347	y aqui que pedos ?	02:01
LjL	and some randomly abusive spanish for good measure	02:02
de-facto	maybe its because of exceeding capacities for centralized resources (e.g. tracing, testing, etc) and for real scaling more decentralized resources should be employed (such as all people contributing to containment without relying on others to do it in their place)	02:03
de-facto	some sort of crowdsourcing approach for controlling containment, doing testing even, helping with tracing and warning contacts, employing purely technical scalable solutions not relying on limited human resources (e.g. apps etc)	02:05
LjL	de-facto, well i can say that the narrative i heard from my country (not that i heard much) was, until some point, that most of the infections were of a known origin i.e. tracing worked, even backward tracing i guess... but then at some point when numbers were soaring, more than 30% of new infections were of unknown origin. so testing/tracing capacity plausibly does play a role	02:05
LjL	yeah if only we had some sort of distributed contact tracing app - if it simply existed, surely everyone would download it!	02:05
de-facto	right now they always cite that for germany 3 of 4 infections are of unknown origin	02:05
de-facto	e.g, 75%	02:06
de-facto	so the majority is not traceable then	02:06
de-facto	even our health minister Jens Spahn did infect himself somewhere and could not determine the origin (fortunately he recovered already)	02:07
de-facto	so only 30% unknown origin sounds fantastic, i wish they could trace that well here too	02:09
LjL	30% was already a bit of time ago	02:10
de-facto	yet it always depends on incidence those 75% unknown origin are the latest numbers cited yesterday	02:10
de-facto	yeah	02:10
LjL	i don't remember how long ago	02:10
LjL	i assume now it's basically 100% since they've practically admitted giving up on tracing	02:10
de-facto	well they should continue and optimize	02:10
de-facto	thats one thing we need to use the expensive time in lockdown: raise tracing capacity because incidence wont come down easily	02:11
de-facto	it will be a hard fight for sure	02:11
LjL	but instead they're allocating rapid tests (when they come, which should be "shortly") to GPs, which is completely unrealistic	02:11
LjL	GPs have neither the ability nor the willingness to set up a COVID testing facility	02:12
de-facto	so tracing capacity and efficiency need to be improved, somehow unknown origins have to be reduced also by restricting circumstances	02:12
de-facto	GPs?	02:12
LjL	%tr <en >de general practitioners	02:13
Brainstorm	LjL, English to German: Hausärzte (MateCat, Google) — Allgemeinmediziner (MateCat) — Hausarzt (Wikipedia) — Pauschale Praktiker (Apertium)	02:13
de-facto	aah yeah	02:13
de-facto	they handle 9 in 10 infections here they said	02:13
LjL	in Lombardy at least, they mostly operate from apartments they have to rent with part of their wage	02:14
LjL	i can barely imagine what would happen if i had a GP operating in my building and they started taking in people for COVID testing	02:14
LjL	the whole building would start a war	02:14
LjL	and that doctor would lose the rest of their patients, who would not come to get checked knowing the same place has been visited by an unknown number of COVID positive people	02:15
de-facto	yeah they are in normal buildings here too, sometimes i had to wait outdoors (in the first wave) now its not like that anymore (actually i dont know why), yet i never go without tight FFP3 to them	02:15
LjL	where is it you said you buy FFP3s again? :P	02:15
de-facto	others are sitting indoors with only cotton mask and until very recently they even had windows closed, i refused to go in there and insisted that i waited outdoors, they reacted a bit annoyed by that, but now air exchange is mandatory	02:16
LjL	de-facto, this has often been cited as a failure of Lombardy anyway. in Veneto (and other regions, but Veneto is the best-known example because initially it seemed to be at as high risk as Lombardy) they operate from small centers where several GPs operate, and they also have "simple" equipment like EKG and ultrasound machines... a dream, for here	02:16
LjL	and that means they can have secretaries who answer the phone, instead of interrupting their visits ten times in a row to answer the phone	02:17
LjL	or alternatively, having tiny timeslots where they answer calls, and then not answering them for the rest of the day	02:18
LjL	neither of which seems ideal	02:18
Brainstorm	New from ProPublica: (news): You Can Vote Curbside if COVID Positive in Douglas County, Commissioner Says → https://is.gd/4GUOb1	02:18
de-facto	yeah they have secretaries here too always	02:19
de-facto	or medical helpers even	02:19
de-facto	its a good thing if they can handle 9 in 10 cases decentralized so they never have to gather and hit centralized hospital sites	02:22
de-facto	basically they are treated and isolated at home	02:22
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +967 cases (now 243335), +4 deaths (now 10265) since 2 hours ago — US: +761 cases (now 9.7 million), +21 deaths (now 238637) since an hour ago	02:22
de-facto	same for testing	02:22
de-facto	usually they try to separate that though	02:23
de-facto	like if one GP got two places one is dedicated for testing or an isolated part of their rooms or such	02:23
LjL	de-facto, but, you know, when you call 112 for a presumed COVID cases, the paramedics come in full suits. your GP sees you with a surgical mask at best... whatever the state will give them	02:24
de-facto	i have even seen them doing that out of windows so people never have to enter indoors	02:24
LjL	yikes	02:24
LjL	we have a few "drive-through" testing places now, but, too little, too late	02:25
de-facto	when i went for testing it was like i had to wait outdoors, then enter with mask on straight line into a special room, the GP was in full protection suit with professional mask, gloves and face shield	02:25
LjL	plus, i think drive-through is a nice concept, but unfortunately it advantages the wealthy against the poor, for a change	02:25
de-facto	yeah those drive through testing sites are quite common here too	02:25
LjL	don't have a car? wait in a room full of people who may have COVID. have a car? sit in your car (for hours, but still).	02:25
de-facto	they are a really good concept imho	02:25
de-facto	yep indeed wealthy vs poor	02:26
LjL	de-facto, they became "quite common" in South Korea just weeks after their first outbreaks. it only took several months to have them here too	02:26
ghost_rider[m]	One can use trash/waste bags with tape and cheap full head protection cheap. NATO mask's, new, cost around 70 euros were average smartphone cost more.	02:33
LjL	err	02:34
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +1600 cases (now 244935), +14 deaths (now 10279) since 17 minutes ago — US: +335 cases (now 9.7 million) since 18 minutes ago	02:37
LjL	https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-lungs-int-idUSKBN27K00X?taid=5fa1fe3d260cc00001042429 related to long COVID but really just COVID in general... from an Italian autopsies study although they don't link the study	02:37
LjL	basically, they found extensive lung damage that was not just viral infection or inflammation, but more like scar tissue	02:39
de-facto	well how would it look like if a micro thrombosis blocks some volume of tissue and that would die off then?	02:40
de-facto	hmm thats just my imagination though probably also other causes contribute	02:41
de-facto	%title https://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/mauro-giacca	02:45
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.kcl.ac.uk: Professor Mauro Giacca	02:45
LjL	One was that patients had extensive blood clotting of the lung arteries and veins. Another was that some lung cells were abnormally large and had many nuclei - a result of the fusion of different cells into single large cells in a process known as syncytia.	02:46
LjL	from what i remember reading before, multi-nuclei cells are sometimes a result of viral processes	02:47
de-facto	%title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30480-1/fulltext is it this here?	02:47
LjL	so that may point more to the virus directly doing it than to it being a byproduct of clotting	02:47
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Persistence of viral RNA, pneumocyte syncytia and thrombosis are hallmarks of advanced COVID-19 pathology - EBioMedicine	02:47
LjL	from the looks of it, i'd say yeah	02:47
LjL	%papers by Mauro Giacca	02:47
Brainstorm	LjL: An error occurred while searching.	02:47
LjL	figures	02:48
LjL	yes, 41 patients, it's that study	02:48
LjL	well, bodies	02:48
de-facto	yuck those lung pictures :(	02:48
de-facto	i hate reuters for always hiding their sources as in implying they are the primary source	02:49
de-facto	thats very unprofessional imho	02:49
LjL	eh a lot of news sites seem to fail to cite the studies	02:52
LjL	"[We] emonstrate in a large patient cohort that SARS-CoV-2 infection largely occurs in the lung, with minor involve-ment of other organs (we did not detect signs compatiblewith myocarditis, nephritis, hepatitis or encephalitis in anyof the analyzed patients)."	02:53
LjL	that is a bit at odds with what the Reuters article says	02:53
LjL	de-facto, this study makes sort of the reverse hypothesis from the one you made about thrombi: it says, these cells we see are fused together because the spike protein of the virus cases that. might that be why thrombi form?	02:56
ryouma	my gf/carer had agreed with me to stay 15-20ft from others. today without telling me arbitrarily went to polling place unecessarily (had alredy voted early) having said whill just take a walk. talked there. said was plenty distance. maybe even as much as 6ft. i.e. arbutgrarily chnged the 15-20. it was probably more like 3ft given her sense of distance. and crowds. we have been self-isolating for the diration	02:56
ryouma	with a shopper as i am especially vulnerable and the stress risks even more risk of permanent damage to my health from leaving house to go to dentist. and if infection then no dentist hence pain. and my doctor said i would die from covid anyway.	02:56
ryouma	the whole point of her voting early was to not do that	02:57
ryouma	more significantly existential risks that betrayed agreement	03:00
ryouma	she had previously stated if i get so sick i cannot get to bathroom she is kicking me out, whch she knows in practice means death also. that sounds like exaggeration doesn('t it. it isnt.	03:01
LjL	well it doesn't really sound like you don't have much bargaining power there, despite any purported agreements	03:03
LjL	"In several instances, these [multi-nuclei dysmorphic] cells clustered to form areas of squamous metaplasia" doesn't that mean that if the same happens in patients who survive, chance of developing lung cancer becomes pretty high	03:13
LjL	"It has been suggested that COVID-19 follows a biphasic course, with an initial phase characterized by viral replication, also detectable by positivity at the RT-PCR-based swab test, followed by second phase in which viral replication might become less relevant, characterized by hyperinflammation. While the clinical manifestations of the disease remain different during disease progression, our data challenge the notion that viral replication has ceased in	03:19
LjL	patients with advanced disease."	03:19
de-facto	interesting that sounds quite nasty though	03:25
de-facto	idk about cancer though, is it mutagen to some degree? I thought it being an ssRNA virus would leave the DNA in the cell alone	03:26
de-facto	i guessed the micro thrombi because if its scar tissue that has some macroscopic dimension it would have to die off due to some very localized effect such as blocking supply or centers of some self amplifying effect or such	03:31
de-facto	leading to macroscopic granularity	03:31
LjL	de-facto, they also found macroscopic thrombi in the lungs of several patients	03:32
LjL	as to cancer, wikipedia goes	03:32
LjL	"Today, metaplastic changes are usually considered to be an early phase of carcinogenesis, specifically for those with a history of cancers or who are known to be susceptible to carcinogenic changes. Metaplastic change is thus often viewed as a premalignant condition that requires immediate intervention, either surgical or medical, lest it lead to cancer via malignant transformation."	03:32
LjL	so i'm just basing it on that, metaplasia meaning heightened cancer risk. but maybe it only applies when it's caused by carcinogenic-type changes	03:32
LjL	i dunno	03:32
de-facto	ugh that does not sound good at all indeed	03:33
LjL-Matrix	Meanwhile, have a microscope picture of these ridiculous masks that are supposed to be type II surgical and composed of three layers:	03:34
LjL	they have these... holes... about 1mm or so diameter i guess. that's a picture of one of those holes. they are not actual holes, there is still fabric within them, it looks like they're parts that have been pressed down. but really, it also looks like there's a LOT of empty space in there...	03:35
de-facto	wtf is that, did they melt a hole into the fabric?	03:35
LjL	and i also see no sign of it having distinct layers	03:35
LjL	yeah, pretty much	03:35
LjL	i'll show you a regular picture too	03:35
de-facto	i have read about KN95 having that problem too, they are all heat pressed together but if pressure or temp is not calibrated correctly the "welding" transforms into punch through holes	03:36
de-facto	maybe because many new factories are producing now, i read some that produced smartphones before now do PPE	03:37
LjL	de-facto, yeah i think i've had KN95 masks which had such dubious-looking features... like even the KN95 logo itself being pressed so much as to make it super thin. but also, KN95 masks are meant to be just one layer, i believe. surgicals are supposed to have three layers, one meltblown, one hydrorepellent, and one something	03:37
LjL	de-facto, yes that's the case in Italy, from what i understand they gave everyone authorization to make so called type I and II masks (not FFPanything, though) with no external checks at all. they are just supposed to self-certify them	03:38
LjL	it's scary, and as a matter of fact since FFP2s are expensive, rare to come by, and actually maybe-dubious KN95, in reality what i use all the time is hand-sewn masks from two or three cotton layers	03:39
LjL	do you see the picture? it's not a great picture, but the mask has basically a grid of what looks like just holes if you don't look carefully and realize there is after all a thiiiin layer of material in (most of?) them	03:40
de-facto	yeah maybe one could even combine them, e.g. put a an extra filter inside a stable well fitting cotton mask	03:40
de-facto	yeah i am looking at it i think its that issue, non calibrated pressure/heat/time correctly	03:40
de-facto	not sure why those holes go all the way over the tissue, maybe the want to stick the layers together?	03:41
LjL	de-facto, yeah, that's been tried, and there are tutorials for that on the net... although the filter we've put inside is a random type of "non-woven fabric" (like meltblown is, but meltblown is a specific type of that), and if you just put it into a "pocket" and make it removable, it doesn't fit snugly at all, while if you sew it in and make it fixed, you can no longer wash the masks without destroying the filter	03:41
LjL	de-facto, maybe they are to stick the layers together, although again, i don't really see layers, it all looks the same to me including under my cheap but useful microscope	03:42
de-facto	weird indeed	03:43
LjL	de-facto, something that worries me about cotton masks is no matter how you shape them, it's almost impossible to keep them away from your mouth. now, REAL surgical masks touch your mouth, but they also contain one water-repellent layer. N95 masks and similar don't have any such layer, but on the other hand, they are shaped so that they don't touch your mouth. but with cotton masks, you don't have that layer AND your mouth is touching the mask, and	03:45
LjL	moistening it, all the time... so i'm not sure how much any pathogens are going to stay outside if there's moisture and your mouth keeps rubbing into it	03:45
de-facto	oh btw just found a good method to repair a snapped off cord: use a stampler with metal clamp	03:45
LjL	won't your skin hate you?	03:45
de-facto	havent tried that yet, i just was on rush at one morning snapped off 3 cords of perfectly fine masks :P	03:46
de-facto	hmm not sure about the moisture thing, surely they wont filter when soaked	03:48
de-facto	at least i read that they should be replaced before such things happen	03:48
de-facto	havent noticed that problem with surgical masks though	03:48
de-facto	maybe my nose is big so it does not touch my mouth?	03:49
LjL	i don't know, but again, (real) surgical masks have water-repellent properties	03:51
de-facto	about those holes: i am not sure how tight such surgical masks sit anyhow, so if its just a few it may be insignificant compared to the airflow that bypasses the mask in its sides anyhow and for ballistic droplets those holes are also just a small part of the surface area, so sure a bit more will come through but still most of them will hit the fabric (well unless they are guided by the airflow into the holes, yet still air pressure	03:52
de-facto	behind such masks is not that big)	03:52
LjL	with cotton masks, if the fit is tight (which is a good thing in itself!), the mask just sticks to your skin when you inhale	03:52
de-facto	those masks are more about blocking the passage of ballistic droplets while speaking their filtering of aerosol is not good so only for those that have more filter capacity and air resistance (e.g. FFP2/3 (K)N95) due to capability of filtering aerosol the air tight fit becomes more important	03:55
de-facto	afaik the fit is even part of their certification (if done correctly)	03:55
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: The coronavirus, raging in battleground states, looms over election day → https://is.gd/bNXkM4	04:04
LjL	de-facto, the fit is part of KN95 certification but not N95 (don't remember about FFP)	04:04
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Just recovered from COVID-19? Now get your health back with these easy yoga practices → https://is.gd/hwCRkH	04:49
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: US Election 2020 Results: Trump, Biden voters differ on pandemic, economy → https://is.gd/t7grb4	05:07
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +5186 cases (now 452541), +268 deaths (now 12126) since 22 hours ago — US: +1440 cases (now 9.7 million), +4 deaths (now 238641) since 3 hours ago — Netherlands: +1326 cases (now 377216), +4 deaths (now 7580) since 14 hours ago — New Zealand: +3 cases (now 1971) since 22 hours ago	05:53
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Twitter bans David Icke over Covid misinformation → https://is.gd/MR6AIU	06:01
Brainstorm	New from EurekAlert!: Different outcomes by race/ethnicity among patients with COVID-19 and rheumatic disease: Among US patients with rheumatic disease and COVID-19, racial/ethnic minorities had higher risks of needing to be hospitalized and put on ventilators. The findings come from an analysis published in Arthritis & Rheumatology. → https://is.gd/nd4nMv	06:29
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Exit polls showed the choice came down to the pandemic versus the economy → https://is.gd/tLQHIb	06:37
Brainstorm	New preprint: Real-life performances of a novel antigen detection test on nasopharyngeal specimens for SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosis: a prospective study by Laura Courtellemont et al, published on 2020-11-03 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.28.20220657 [... want %more?]	07:23
Brainstorm	Updates for Lombardy, Italy: +6804 cases (now 216433), +117 deaths (now 17752) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +1944 cases (now 379160), +28 deaths (now 7608) since an hour ago — United Kingdom: +1609 cases (now 1.1 million), +45 deaths (now 47295) since 7 hours ago — Canada: +753 cases (now 245688), +18 deaths (now 10300) since an hour ago	07:23
metreo	.more	07:50
Brainstorm	metreo, [...] Effect of control measure on the development of new COVID-19 cases through SIR model simulation by Fei Liu et al, published on 2020-11-03 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.27.20220590 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/SIdJ9	07:50
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1104 cases (now 9.7 million), +2796 deaths (now 238656) since 2 hours ago	08:09
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Italy fears 'tsunami' of coronavirus patients – as it happened → https://is.gd/BQBA8t	08:51
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: New opportunities for detecting osteoporosis: Osteoporosis can be detected through low dose computed tomography (LDCT) imaging tests performed for lung cancer screening or other purposes. A study published in the Journal of Bone and Mineral Research found that such tests can identify large numbers of adults with low bone [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V2efLx	09:18
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 lung damage caused by persistence of 'abnormal cells': Investigations of deceased COVID-19 patients have shed light on possible lung damage caused by the virus. → https://is.gd/bPtNjE	09:27
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Finland: Europe's quiet success in COVID-19 fight: As millions across Europe face new lockdown measures to tackle the resurging coronavirus, Finland is bucking the trend: infection rates are falling, while attitudes to restrictions remain the most positive on the continent. → https://is.gd/9FcM1c	09:54
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +544 cases (now 9.7 million) since 2 hours ago	10:24
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: COVID-19 Is 10 Times Deadlier Than Flu and 20 Percent of NYC Have Been Infected: Study (10045 votes) \| https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-is-10-times-deadlier-than-flu-and-20-percent-of-nyc-have-been-infected-study/2701435/ \| https://redd.it/jnkdxl	10:36
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hungary's foreign minister tests positive for coronavirus → https://is.gd/s43vtz	10:38
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid: MPs to vote on England's one-month lockdown: It comes as the head of NHS England says nearly 11,000 patients with Covid are now in hospital. → https://is.gd/eUgM8Z	10:47
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Italy to impose anti-virus night curfew: Italy's prime minister has signed a decree to enforce a nationwide night curfew from 10 pm on Thursday as he tries to halt the resurgence of coronavirus, media reported. → https://is.gd/bRYZCB	11:14
Brainstorm	New from BMJ: Uncertain evolution of untreated coronary syndromes during covid-19 pandemic: Hayek and colleagues found that cardiac arrest is common and associated with poor survival in patients critically ill with covid-19.1The sharp decline in admissions for coronary syndromes during the... → https://is.gd/K6GVLS	11:40
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +10073 cases (now 192376), +21 deaths (now 2492) since 12 hours ago	12:05
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Palantir is reportedly in talks to help Britain with its beleaguered Covid contact tracing: The U.K. government is considering using software from U.S. data analytics firm Palantir for coronavirus contact tracing in England, according to reports. → https://is.gd/6gcd8V	12:07
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +769 cases (now 453310) since 7 hours ago	12:50
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Risk for severe disease up for pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2: (HealthDay)—Pregnant women with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have increased risks for severe COVID-19-associated illness, according to research published in the Nov. 2 early-release issue of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/CluCyO	12:53
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid: The NHS will not collapse, health leaders say: But without lockdown there will be major disruption because of the rising number of virus cases. → https://is.gd/r3FCMg	13:55
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Scientists identify synthetic mini-antibody to combat COVID-19: The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to infect cells depends on interactions between the viral spike protein and the human cell surface protein ACE2. To enable the virus to hook onto the cell surface, the spike protein binds ACE2 using three finger-like protrusions, called [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/X86D7O	14:05
darsie	Synthetic antibodies. I thought about that, but didn't think it's feasible.	14:07
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: UK's Johnson insists new lockdown will end on Dec 2: A second coronavirus lockdown in England will end on December 2, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday, despite suggestions it could be extended if it fails to cut infections. → https://is.gd/Y7V7Yh	14:14
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Persistence of viral RNA, pneumocyte syncytia and thrombosis are hallmarks of advanced COVID-19 pathology (86 votes) \| https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30480-1/fulltext \| https://redd.it/jntkvc	14:19
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Italy agrees curfew as Europe tries to stem virus surge: Italian officials agreed on Wednesday to impose a night-time curfew, joining a slew of European nations in ramping up restrictions in the face of a dramatic surge in coronavirus cases. → https://is.gd/f7a3wp	14:22
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Russia virus infections hit new record: Russia announced a record daily number of coronavirus infections on Wednesday, with 19,768 new cases adding to pressure on the government only days after President Vladimir Putin said there were no plans for a lockdown. → https://is.gd/YKaJGb	14:32
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Extremely vulnerable advised not to go to work from Thursday → https://is.gd/xVvJNh	14:41
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Machu Picchu in Peru opens up for tourists after eight months of lockdown → https://is.gd/iPoI5y	14:50
rpifan	hm	14:52
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Nasal spray could mean needle-free COVID-19 vaccine: As the world eagerly awaits the debut of a COVID-19 vaccine, many of us imagine that receiving the immunization will be similar to getting the flu shot: We'll head to the clinic, roll up our sleeve and feel a quick prick to the arm. → https://is.gd/TZnVzw	14:59
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Q&A: A COVID-19 DNA nanoswitch—a new kind of test for a new kind of virus: When the COVID-19 pandemic shut down research laboratories across the country, several labs at Boston Children's Hospital geared up, including that of Wesley Wong, Ph.D. He and his team responded to the threat by developing a new, easy diagnostic test [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Ivhy4z	15:08
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: System wirelessly captures data from pulse oximeters: Automating the collection and presentation of healthcare data is crucial in the fight against COVID-19. It adds capacity to screening efforts by automating routine tasks, thereby allowing frontline staff such as dormitory operators and healthcare workers in community care [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JLR03i	15:17
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +4363 cases (now 383523), +82 deaths (now 7682) since 8 hours ago — US: +1999 cases (now 9.7 million), +21 deaths (now 238677) since 5 hours ago — Switzerland: +8 deaths (now 2500) since 3 hours ago	15:21
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Oxford hopes to have late-stage Covid-19 vaccine results this year; wholesalers may pay $21 billion in opioid settlement → https://is.gd/mxiVLZ	15:35
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): France, Germany and England impose new lockdowns as pandemic fatigue seeps in across Europe and Covid cases soar → https://is.gd/O3B32z	16:03
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Delirium could be an early marker of COVID-19: Delirium accompanied by fever could be an early symptom of COVID-19. This is the main conclusion drawn by a scientific research review carried out by researchers from the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) and published in Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy, which highlights [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Xhs55N	16:12
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +3197 cases (now 9.7 million), +24 deaths (now 238701) since an hour ago	16:21
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +2346 cases (now 9.7 million), +32 deaths (now 238733) since 17 minutes ago	16:36
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Swiss drafts army as virus cases spike: The Swiss government said Wednesday it will deploy troops in cantons where under-pressure health services require support as coronavirus cases spike. → https://is.gd/GQGq7F	16:39
Jigsy	500 deaths.	17:17
Brainstorm	Updates for Italy: +30548 cases (now 790377), +352 deaths (now 39764) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +23568 cases (now 1.1 million), +492 deaths (now 47742) since 10 hours ago — US: +766 cases (now 9.7 million), +13 deaths (now 238746) since 52 minutes ago	17:21
metreo	jigsy: Top fatalities today: Mexico: #1 (493) UK: #2 (492) Iran: #3 (419) Russia: #4 (389) Poland: #5 (373) Italy: #6 (352) India: #7 (305) Belgium: #8 (268) Ukraine: #9 (199) Romania: #10 (146)	17:24
Jigsy	Yup.	17:25
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Understanding the spread of infectious diseases: Scientists worldwide have been working feverishly on research into infectious diseases in the wake of the global outbreak of the COVID-19 disease, caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. This concerns not only virologists, but also physicists, who are developing mathematical [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/AclmKt	17:25
metreo	are you in ##CoV	17:25
Jigsy	And people are still whining about going into lockdown.	17:28
Jigsy	"BUT R IS DROPPING!"	17:28
metreo	Top ten infected countries today: India: #1 (39,571) Italy: #2 (30,550) UK: #3 (25,177) Poland: #4 (24,692) Russia: #5 (19,768) Switzerland: #6 (10,073) USA: #7 (9,956) Ukraine: #8 (9,524) Romania: #9 (8,651) Iran: #10 (8,452)	17:29
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. reports second-highest daily number of Covid cases on Election Day as scientists warn of a dangerous winter → https://is.gd/Elen3g	17:34
metreo	Total cases: 48,129,129 (+286,288), deaths: 1,224,506 (+4,772), recovered: 34,500,140. Active cases: 12,404,483, 12,315,870 are in a mild condition, 88,613 are in a serious condition. Mortality: 2.54%, case fatality rate: 3.43%. Case rate: 487,615/24h, death rate: 8,192/24h. Last update: 16m ago.	17:35
Brainstorm	Updates for Arizona, US: +815 cases (now 250633), +39 deaths (now 6059) since 23 hours ago — US: +815 cases (now 9.7 million), +39 deaths (now 238785) since 19 minutes ago	17:37
LjL	Just wondering, who else finds the concept of a periodic post with "top ten" fatalities and infected countries a little bit tacky?	17:41
metreo	what do you mean by tacky?	17:46
metreo	are statistics tacky?	17:47
ubLIX[m]	a form of presentation can be, of course	17:49
ubLIX[m]	s/Top ten infected countries:/Outbreak trends:/ and give exponents for the 10 most steeply case counts	17:49
ubLIX[m]	*steeply rising	17:49
LjL	metreo: they can be, yes. Especially when they are not very meaningful, like in that case you are listing absolute numbers without reference to the populations involved, so like why would I want to know about the US or another big country more than I want to know about say Switzerland even those the latter has more deaths or cases per capita?	17:49
metreo	if it's for clickbait then yes	17:49
metreo	Ljl, no I don't think that level of analysis is always warranted	17:50
LjL	Plus we have had pains and drama with what bots were to be allowed before. You are not a bot but I'm not sure this is effectively different from a bot post	17:51
LjL	That's not a level of analysis, that's the basics...	17:51
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +1268 cases (now 246956), +32 deaths (now 10328) since 10 hours ago	17:52
metreo	Ljl, are you asking me not to post lists	17:58
LjL	metreo: I'm not sure, hence I was asking for other opinions. For now I would ask to change you the "top" and "top ten" wording which us what I find tackiest, and also misleading since it's not per capita. "Countries with most cases/deaths" seems neutral enough for example	18:03
LjL	And I'd also remove the ordinals, which add nothing but gore gossip	18:03
LjL	"We are #2! No #1 now!"	18:04
snake	yeah i agree tacky	18:04
metreo	Ljl, sure I can refrain from adding tacky posts to your channel	18:04
metreo	apologies to all	18:06
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1114 cases (now 9.7 million), +12 deaths (now 238797) since 33 minutes ago	18:07
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Covid-19: NHS in England moves to highest alert level \| 04NOV20 → https://is.gd/fu5pLE	18:11
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): nCoV: New strategy to combat COVID-19 pandemic announced; infection rate slowing \| 03NOV20 → https://is.gd/zIRlP7	18:29
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: How contagious are kids with COVID? Short answer: We don't know: Are children a major source of contagion for COVID-19? Ten months into a pandemic that has claimed 1.2 million lives experts are still divided on the question, even as governments must decide whether to keep classrooms open or shut. → https://is.gd/1AKwrC	18:47
LjL	quick news about Italy: the tiered lockdown decree was signed, the tl;dr is that "least risk" regions will keep current limitations plus a 22-to-5 curfew; "medium risk" regions will completely close bars, pubs and restaurants; "high risk" regions will still mostly go to work and schools until grade corresponding to age 11, but other than that and necessities, leaving your home won't be allowed	18:48
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Case study details leukemia patient who shed infectious SARS-CoV-2 for at least 70 days: The majority of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 appear to actively shed infectious virus for about 8 days, but there is a wide range of variability from person to person. Understanding how long people can remain actively infected is [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RzbXrR	18:56
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Coronavirus cases, hospitalizations keep climbing: (HealthDay)—On the heels of days of staggering coronavirus case counts, more than 90,000 new infections were reported among Americans on Election Day. → https://is.gd/ANon6V	19:06
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +2425 cases (now 9.7 million), +50 deaths (now 238847) since an hour ago	19:07
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Denmark: Mutated coronavirus from mink is a threat to humans (10206 votes) \| https://www.bt.dk/politik/nye-restriktioner-paa-vej-muteret-coronavirus-fra-mink-er-en-trussel-for-mennesker \| https://redd.it/jnwx9x	19:09
metreo	.papers mink	19:19
Brainstorm	metreo, 7 papers: Jumping back and forth: anthropozoonotic and zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on mink farms by Bas B. Oude Munnink et al, published on 2020-09-01 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.09.01.277152 [... want %more?]	19:19
metreo	.more	19:19
Brainstorm	metreo, [...] SARS-CoV2 infection in farmed mink, Netherlands, April 2020 by Nadia Oreshkova et al, published on 2020-05-18 at http://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.18.101493 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/qy5Xg	19:19
LjL	That says Italy's PM will hold a press conference at 20:20 CET with the new measures (regional lockdowns) to be enforced from tomorroe	19:19
LjL	.papers mink mutation	19:20
Brainstorm	LjL: An error occurred while searching.	19:20
LjL	I tried	19:20
metreo	.papers mink\ mutation	19:21
Brainstorm	metreo: An error occurred while searching.	19:21
metreo	Denmark will announce new restrictions on Thursday	19:21
metreo	207 mink herds infected since summer	19:22
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Q And A: COVID-19 testing for children: DEAR MAYO CLINIC: I have two children under 10 who just returned to school in person. The school announced updated requirements that when children return to school from being sick, they will need to have a negative COVID-19 test. Since my daughters are not good patients, I'm concerned [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/eVyEJp	19:24
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Much of Portugal enters new partial lockdown: Large parts of Portugal went into partial lockdown on Wednesday, but the government warned it might have to impose even tighter measures to rein in a second wave of the coronavirus infections. → https://is.gd/FubKY9	19:32
rpifan	sad	19:33
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +3026 cases (now 9.7 million), +60 deaths (now 238907) since 38 minutes ago	19:37
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Care homes advised to allow visitors in England during lockdown → https://is.gd/qkn5ts	19:42
ghost_rider[m]	Portugal will enter again the state of emergency, maybe next week.	19:46
Brainstorm	New from Ars Technica: Science: Mink variant of coronavirus spreads to humans in Denmark; full cull planned → https://is.gd/ikvEMA	20:00
xrogaan	Apparently, the Danemark will slaughter around 17 millions of mink because SARS-COV2 mutated?	20:00
xrogaan	ah, just as Brainstorm report the news.	20:01
Brainstorm	Updates for Spain: +25042 cases (now 1.4 million), +1623 deaths (now 38118) since a day ago — US: +3053 cases (now 9.7 million), +32 deaths (now 238939) since 37 minutes ago	20:07
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: New research points to potential link between pollution levels and Covid-19 death risk: Researchers used a machine learning approach to analyze whether air pollution levels are associated with Covid-19 death tolls in more than 3,000 U.S. counties. → https://is.gd/QE7jFG	20:09
LjL	this time i'll be taking notes of (or transcribing, depending on how interesting it sounds) our PM's press conference in ##covid-press and keep this channel free of it, since it's probably just a long-winded way to state the tl;dr i gave earlier, so anyone who wants to follow can join there, or read it later when i post it on github	20:19
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +4071 cases (now 9.7 million), +42 deaths (now 238981) since 28 minutes ago	20:22
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Telemedicine out of reach for those who can't get online: (HealthDay)—As the COVID-19 pandemic spread throughout the United States, many people changed the way they live: As shopping, education and work shifted online, so did routine health care appointments. → https://is.gd/CH1xs7	20:27
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +4895 cases (now 9.7 million), +38 deaths (now 239019) since 23 minutes ago	20:37
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +12680 cases (now 9.7 million), +111 deaths (now 239130) since 18 minutes ago — Canada: +377 cases (now 247333), +2 deaths (now 10330) since 3 hours ago	20:52
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: The impact of lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic on mental and social health of children and adolescents (80 votes) \| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224667v1 \| https://redd.it/jnyiaf	21:03
LjL	tinwhiskers, yes but it's going to show up in github in a moment	21:14
tinwhiskers	ok	21:14
LjL	i wasn't in top transcribing shape	21:15
tinwhiskers	heh. I'm sure it'll be just fine even if it's less than the usual perfect.	21:16
LjL	i just missed some questions entirely, but they were about economy and political stuff mostly, which may be of interest to me but maybe not so much to you	21:17
LjL	i also failed to list the regions that are part of one or another "area"	21:17
LjL	but the bad thing about that is that Lombardy is a red area, that much is clear, but then there are almost no "orange" areas, almost everything else is "yellow" (which was originally "green" then they thought that sounded too good)	21:18
LjL	but there are regions like Campania and Latium that are in about as bad a state as Lombardy. if they aren't ending up as red or at least orange areas, it means these parameters don't work	21:18
tinwhiskers	That seems like a pretty effective lockdown in the red areas. What concerns do you have? I'm assuming you have at least some :-)	21:19
LjL	tinwhiskers, well, it falls short of the spring lockdown, in mainly two areas: schools are staying partly open (but i sort of agree with that, since it's elementary and only the first year of middle school, i.e. ~11), and work being mostly allowed in any form, except for shops and stores. i think work MUST happen remotely whenever possible, it can't just be a recommendation	21:20
tinwhiskers	ok. yeah.	21:21
LjL	tinwhiskers, my aunt got COVID because her employer stubbornly refused to let them work remotely even though it's a desk job	21:21
LjL	you can't just rely on goodwill	21:22
tinwhiskers	yeah, that is silly	21:22
tinwhiskers	she ok?	21:22
LjL	yeah, afaik	21:22
tinwhiskers	oh. just recently?	21:22
LjL	i'm not sure how long it has been by now. she's had fever and aches for a week, but then afaik she's been okay, unless she preferred to avoid mentioning any lingering issues	21:23
tinwhiskers	ok.	21:23
Brainstorm	New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELL'INTERNO - DECRETO 19 ottobre 2020: Misure urgenti in materia di salute, sostegno al lavoro eall'economia, nonche' di politiche sociali connesse all'emergenzaepidemiologica da COVID-19. (20A05957) → https://is.gd/hSPtVm	21:23
LjL	tinwhiskers, she tested positive on october 23	21:23
LjL	(test done privately because healthcare doctor declined to order a test)	21:24
tinwhiskers	ah. ok. quite recent then	21:24
tinwhiskers	dang	21:24
LjL	yes but after she tested positive she basically got better within a day or two	21:24
LjL	her daughter probably also caught it, but she only had fever for a day or two, and wasn't tested (except for antibodies, which she didn't have, which was silly)	21:24
tinwhiskers	ah, so out of the woods but dealing with the common lingering effects?	21:24
LjL	my aunt's husband was a worry because of potential co-morbidities but apparently he didn't catch it	21:25
LjL	tinwhiskers, no i don't know, she may be just fine. to the best of my knowledge she's just fine. i just know her as someone who may not mention it if she has some lingering thing that she's worried but unsure about	21:25
tinwhiskers	it surprises me how many people manage to elude it even living with an infected person.	21:26
LjL	tinwhiskers, fwiw they wore masks at home when they knew she was positive, and tried to avoid being in the same room	21:26
LjL	but their apartment isn't huge. it does have two bathrooms	21:26
tinwhiskers	ah. nice	21:26
tinwhiskers	that's good work then. thank god some people in the world still have some sense.	21:27
LjL	yeah, wait until it happens to my other aunt and her children ;( (hopefully won't, but chances aren't great)	21:27
tinwhiskers	heh	21:28
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Mink and COVID-19 (83 votes) \| https://coronasmitte.dk/mink \| https://redd.it/jo2muy	21:28
ketas	wait, wearing masks in home?	21:29
ketas	wtf	21:29
LjL	exactly what is "wtf" about it?	21:29
tinwhiskers	one person tested positive and doesn't want to spread it to their husband with co-morbidities? Of course you should wear a mask in that situation.	21:29
LjL	especially considering that, because of that or whatever it was, her husband didn't get it	21:29
LjL	seems to me like it was a good idea what they did	21:30
tinwhiskers	probably a dose of good luck too	21:30
LjL	sure	21:30
LjL	but still with all due respect if you go "wtf" at the idea i go "wtf" at you	21:30
tinwhiskers	"thank god some people in the world still have some sense."	21:30
ketas	might as well leave or move out completely if you have to do that with partner	21:32
ketas	suuure, benefits, etc	21:33
tinwhiskers	it's not like she was going to remain infected for life. Wearing a mask for a week or so at home to keep your loved-ones safe is not a big ask. Temporarily moving out might be another depending on circumstances, but wearing a mask is the least you would do.	21:34
xrogaan	Have you addressed the mink while I was absent?	21:35
tinwhiskers	xrogaan: nope	21:35
xrogaan	ok	21:35
ketas	it would be damn suffering for benefits, maybe good idea but still wtf	21:39
LjL	ketas: sure, move out, houses and money grow on trees. Nevermind that they aren't LEGALLY ALLOWED to move out while they are in self-isolation!	21:43
ketas	pretty bad rules if they don't allow protecting others	21:44
tinwhiskers	xrogaan: what aspect of the mink news was on your mind?	21:57
ketas	now, imagine precondition to that situation described earlier... should be less wtf-inducing, maybe... people live together, since you don't really know who catches and spreads as there might be no signs and daily testing is not possible, whay are other options, apply compulsory social distancing in home? even if some are in risk? making stress worse, therefore compromising health, leading to... wait!	22:00
Brainstorm	New from PLOS ONE: Clinical characteristics of re-positive COVID-19 patients in Huangshi, China: A retrospective cohort study: by Ji Zhou, Jingying Zhang, Juan Zhou, Honggang Yi, Zichen Lin, Yu Liu, Min Zhu, Hongyu Wang, Wei Zhang, Hai Xu, Hangping Jiang, Zhengzhong Xiang, Ze Qu, Yuemei Yang, Linjuan Lu, Shuai Guo, Heng Fu, Ian M. Adcock, Yu Wei, Xin [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/bLaDwZ	22:01
xrogaan	tinwhiskers: they say specifically that it is a variant of SARS-COV2? Not another coronavirus.	22:02
xrogaan	So which way did it go?	22:02
tinwhiskers	human -> mink -> human	22:02
ketas	that goes on for years...	22:03
xrogaan	that's scary	22:03
ketas	:/	22:03
xrogaan	If the minks can get it, what about the pigs?	22:03
xrogaan	Also, why minks?	22:03
tinwhiskers	apparently there have been something like 200 mink farms that this has occurred on so they are particularly susceptible	22:04
tinwhiskers	because luck	22:04
ketas	because cuteness	22:04
xrogaan	Yeah, mutation and all that. But how many industry requires minks farming vs chickens?	22:04
tinwhiskers	not sure what you mean	22:04
xrogaan	How likely is it to mutate to infect minks, and how likely is it to mutate and get into an animal that is much more critical for our society?	22:05
tinwhiskers	it doesn't seem like it needs to mutate at all to infect minks	22:05
de-facto	why are mink farms essential? how about closing them down permanently?	22:06
tinwhiskers	but some ongoing mutation will occur while in the minks, as it does while in humans	22:06
xrogaan	So, the variant happens to be cross-specie?	22:06
tinwhiskers	yes	22:06
xrogaan	It's like a super virus.	22:07
tinwhiskers	it's like virus	22:07
tinwhiskers	*a	22:07
xrogaan	IIRC, for MERS the reservoir is the camel. Here it can be the mink?	22:09
tinwhiskers	yeah	22:09
de-facto	didnt MERS emerge from bats infecting camels?	22:09
tinwhiskers	many mammals will have varying degrees of susceptibility. We've seen it in big cats as well, for example.	22:09
xrogaan	de-facto: are you trolling? Please stop the nonsense.	22:11
tinwhiskers	o.O	22:11
xrogaan	oh no, you're not.	22:11
xrogaan	> "The origins of the virus are not fully understood but, according to the analysis of different virus genomes, it is believed that it may have originated in bats and was transmitted to camels sometime in the distant past."	22:12
xrogaan	what do they mean by "distant past"?	22:13
xrogaan	is the scale in decades or centuries?	22:13
tinwhiskers	you might need to go to primary sources to get that info	22:13
de-facto	ok seems in currently its found in camels but there is a very similar virus HKU4 in bats, most Coronaviridae have as natural reservoir the bats and then infect other mammals or birds or such	22:14
tinwhiskers	if they found sufficient similarities to a bat virus to link it they probably estimated how long ago it happened based on typical mutation rates or something like that.	22:15
tinwhiskers	or at least put some vague bounds on it	22:16
de-facto	%title https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/nih-halted-study-unveils-its-massive-analysis-bat-coronaviruses	22:19
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.sciencemag.org: NIH-halted study unveils its massive analysis of bat coronaviruses \| Science \| AAAS	22:19
de-facto	Daszak says. “We are looking at maybe 10,000 to 15,000 bat coronaviruses that are out there.”	22:19
de-facto	hence i guess that most of them at some time originate from that natural reservoir, but indeed may have spend quite some time in another host already	22:20
de-facto	%title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.116061v1	22:22
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Origin and cross-species transmission of bat coronaviruses in China \| bioRxiv	22:22
LjL	xrogaan: I'm sure de-facto has thick skin and doesn't mind but for the potential benefit of any thinner-skinned people around... Please don't attack people saying they're saying nonsense and trolling before at least doing a basic fact check on what they are saying. I see you did it afterwards, but it would have been ideal to do it beforehand	22:24
LjL	tinwhiskers, ubLIX[m]: well, correction, I asked now, I had previously assumed lack of news meant good news... My aunt still has cough, a sore throat, headache, and general weakness. Her doctor told her not to get re-tested until these symptoms go away (before, while testing was still widely available, I know other people were tested even several times...) and so her family are still self-isolating and also trying to isolate from each other :/	22:34
tinwhiskers	bummer	22:35
LjL	I find headache concerning as a neurological symptom	22:35
tinwhiskers	that's gotta be quite an additional strain	22:35
tinwhiskers	as long as the sore throat continues (probably meaning active infection) I wouldn't read too much into the headaches.	22:35
LjL	:/	22:36
LjL	So it's been about 25 days I think	22:36
tinwhiskers	ouch	22:36
LjL	Well, she tested positive on October 23 I think I said... but she had already had a fever for several days (it's just her doctor didn't prescribe a test)	22:37
tinwhiskers	yeah	22:37
tinwhiskers	wow	22:37
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +40558 cases (now 1.5 million), +385 deaths (now 38674) since 22 hours ago — US: +32456 cases (now 9.8 million), +276 deaths (now 239406) since an hour ago — Canada: +35 cases (now 247368) since an hour ago	22:38
tinwhiskers	I'm really not looking forward to going into 2-week quarantine with infected people when I return to NZ in Jan from a clear country. That really sucks.	22:40
tinwhiskers	a few more community cases in NZ too I see, so hopefully they'll get on top of those again.	22:41
LjL	tinwhiskers: have you decided you're going back, or is it a visa matter?	22:41
tinwhiskers	wife decided to :-)	22:42
LjL	I feel you're safer where you are...	22:42
tinwhiskers	yeah, but sooner or later I think it will arrive here and they, unlike NZ, won't have the ability to get on top of it.	22:42
tinwhiskers	maybe it'll arrive here before I leave and I'll feel a lot better about leaving :-/	22:43
ubLIX[m]	idk. yep, NZ is better resourced, which is a better place to be, once you get through quarantine	22:43
ubLIX[m]	sorry to hear about your aunt, LjL	22:43
LjL	ubLIX[m]: seems like a more common course than anyone would wish it to be	22:44
LjL	And at this point it still counts as "short" covid so I can only imagine	22:45
tinwhiskers	sheesh	22:45
ubLIX[m]	25 days sounds good in the sense that a worse course might have heralded its arrival by now, but Oct 23 plus a week plus 4 days of Nov sounds like a more delicate time	22:47
ghost_rider[m]	My village have to much transmission, schools keep open, restaurants and old people go walk and talk not stopping to local Intermarché...	22:54
LjL	ubLIX[m]: I may not be able to count	22:54
ghost_rider[m]	s/stopping/shopping/g	22:54
ghost_rider[m]	Crazy in my opinion...	22:55
LjL	tinwhiskers, the thing with mink though is, if today's article isn't telling lies, that the ones in Denmark (which went back to infect humans) contain a mutation that dodges certain antibodies, so it could jeopardize vaccines, potentially	23:17
LjL	i'd say that's the creepy news of the day	23:17
LjL	hopefully it'll boil down to not much, except for a lot of dead mink	23:17
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +11126 cases (now 9.8 million), +201 deaths (now 239607) since 53 minutes ago	23:23
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1855 cases (now 9.8 million), +15 deaths (now 239622) since 19 minutes ago — Switzerland: +55 deaths (now 2555) since 8 hours ago	23:38
de-facto	%cases Spain	23:42
Brainstorm	de-facto: In Spain, there have been 1.4 million confirmed cases (2.9% of the population) and 38118 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 18.1 million tests were performed (7.5% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data.	23:42
de-facto	+1623 deaths in Spain, another reporting bug?	23:43
de-facto	+25042 infections for Spain	23:44
DocScrutinizer05	https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US;Germany&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=222 leftTrim is getting ignored. Bug?	23:45
DocScrutinizer05	the URL is c&p of the addr box of firefox after manually setting 222 to the trim left field on webpage	23:46
ghost_rider[m]	Number in Portugal is due to a lab that failed to report in October so now they added to last 24h,	23:47
LjL	de-facto, both of tinwhiskers's sources report 38118, while the graph (i.e. previous day) is at 36495, so if there's a glitch, it's upstream of both me and tinwhiskers as far as i can tell	23:50
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, the URL ignores leftTrim for me, but then if i input 222 manually, that works	23:52
LjL	i'm not sure how that is possible, but it seems to be what's happening O.o	23:52
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: yes, exactly. and - weird enough -for rightTrim it works	23:52
DocScrutinizer05	https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US;Germany&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=222&rightTrim=1	23:52
de-facto	yeah something about upstream is weird there, normally Spain would have ~170 daily fatalities	23:52
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, but i mean, leftTrim does work for me if i input it myself instead of pasting your URL	23:53

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