libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2020-11-13

BrainstormNew from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: 2A02:1812:2D06:9500:48F5:EE05:455C:BD9C: Reference to ECDC: 'Rapid Risk Assessment: Detection of new SARS-CoV-2 variants related to mink': Reference to ECDC: 'Rapid Risk Assessment: Detection of new SARS-CoV-2 variants related to mink' ← Previous revision Revision as of 23:13, 12 November 2020 Line 5: Line 5: ==Name [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF00:17
LjLwho touched my edit00:18
LjLoh they added some references, that's okay then00:18
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: Passengers locked-down at sea as COVID hits first Caribbean cruise → https://is.gd/C9ucQk00:26
ryoumalet me guess, because florida?00:32
BrainstormUpdates for US: +12562 cases (now 10.9 million), +81 deaths (now 248484) since 48 minutes ago00:35
BrainstormNew from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: 2A02:1812:2D06:9500:48F5:EE05:455C:BD9C: Standardized mutation notation.: Standardized mutation notation. ← Previous revision Revision as of 23:31, 12 November 2020 Line 5: Line 5: ==Name and mutations== ==Name and mutations== − In Denmark there have been five [[Gene cluster|clusters]] of mink variants of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF00:36
BrainstormUpdates for Uruguay: +95 cases (now 3795) since a day ago — Canada: +1990 cases (now 282577), +14 deaths (now 10768) since 3 hours ago — US: +13295 cases (now 10.9 million), +84 deaths (now 248487) since an hour ago00:51
LjL"Passengers were required to test negative several days before boarding, the day of boarding, and a few days after boarding. However, it appeared that the cruise was using a rapid test by Abbott—the same test used at the White House."01:02
LjLhttps://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/passengers-locked-down-at-sea-as-covid-hits-first-caribbean-cruise/01:02
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Government buried negative data on its favoured antibody test: The UK government delayed the findings of a Public Health England (PHE) study that question the accuracy of a leading covid antibody test just as it was about to announce that it had spent £75m... → https://is.gd/R0MGft01:04
BrainstormUpdates for US: +13702 cases (now 10.9 million), +85 deaths (now 248488) since an hour ago01:06
BrainstormUpdates for US: +19431 cases (now 10.9 million), +110 deaths (now 248513) since an hour ago — Netherlands: +632 cases (now 431085) since 10 hours ago01:21
BrainstormNew from NPR: Eric Westervelt: Pandemic's Deadly Toll Behind Bars Spurs Calls For Change In U.S. Jails And Prisons → https://is.gd/SmmNS201:32
BrainstormUpdates for US: +19947 cases (now 10.9 million), +112 deaths (now 248515) since an hour ago01:35
BrainstormUpdates for US: +21998 cases (now 10.9 million), +133 deaths (now 248536) since 2 hours ago01:50
ryoumait was stated someplace that 80something percent of covid deaths in jails were never convicted of any crime01:58
BrainstormUpdates for US: +22442 cases (now 10.9 million), +142 deaths (now 248545) since 2 hours ago02:05
BrainstormUpdates for US: +23378 cases (now 10.9 million), +150 deaths (now 248553) since 2 hours ago — Canada: +2357 cases (now 282944), +31 deaths (now 10785) since 5 hours ago02:21
LjLryouma, well the most crammed prisons in italy are... perhaps what you'd call jails? pre-trial detainment02:26
LjLi don't suppose it's much different in the US with the biggest prison population of any country02:27
ryoumai think jail is ambiguous in english.  sometimes it means, per se, pre-trial.  sometimes it is used as a synonym for "prison, jail, whatever".  idk if they share facilities.  something must account for the rest of the 100%.  but yes there is unease in the us about the size of the population, the private industry, corruption, mistreatment, disparities in convictions, conditions, etc.02:31
ryoumait might vary at state level02:32
LjLconditions in italy are pretty awful with way more prisoners than the nominal capacity02:32
LjLand yet we still have a waaaay lower percentage of population in prison than the US02:32
ryoumajapan is probably less bad.  but then there is unease over there about the unrealistically high conviction rate02:32
LjLso before or after solving "let's get more prisons" in the US you should also solve "why the hell are so many Americans in prison"02:32
ryoumaoh, war on drugs is another unease02:33
LjLryouma, japan is pretty bad as treatment of convicts in the death row goes, i know that much02:33
ryoumawith sometime3s some racial aspects too, victimless crime aspects, comparison to prohibition, etc.02:33
LjLthey get literally chained down, and they don't get to know the day of their execution, they just get woken up and "hey it's your turn"02:33
ryoumahmm02:33
LjLand families only get notified after the event02:33
ryoumaonly a few countries even have death penalty02:34
LjLyeah, not having the death penalty is a precondition for being in the EU02:34
ryoumaprobably japan and us are the only major developed ones?  not sure.02:34
LjLdepends on what you mean by developed02:34
LjLChina definitely has the death penalty and uses it a LOT02:34
LjLbut even in Europe, like in France and the UK, polls periodically show a majority are *for* the death penalty02:35
LjLthat surprised me when i learned that02:35
LjLit gets drilled down into us at school, civic education, history classes, what have you, that the death penalty is Bad02:35
jacklswmost asian countries still have death penalty02:35
ryoumaoh right singapore is known for its death penalty02:36
LjLryouma, i love this particular airport welcome sign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment#/media/File:CKS_Airport_drugs_sign.JPG02:36
BrainstormUpdates for US: +23424 cases (now 10.9 million), +155 deaths (now 248558) since 2 hours ago02:36
jacklswwe're still very much into an eye for an eye kind of culture02:36
jacklswasians were full of hate and vengence02:36
jacklswnot sure bout now02:37
ryoumaidk what constitutes developed02:38
LjLit seems to me that there is no shortage of hate and vengeance anywhere02:38
LjLand i can't count the times i've heard (or said myself) "oh i wish we had the death penalty" after knowing of certain facts02:39
ryoumathere was that movie fahrenheit 911 where they showed some nordic prison tha twas practically like a resort02:39
LjLbut i think that's okay, it's a knee-jerk reaction02:39
LjLryouma, one thing is that actually ending up in prison happens in italy for very serious offences. i think unless they've changed the law again, lately you would not go to prison if your sentence was any less than 5 years (used to be 2 years before)02:41
LjLso there's a bit of a... disconnect, i don't know, a big step up02:41
LjLbelow 5 years, you get a harsh trial and probably a harsh financial fine, maybe you have to stay in home arrest for a while, or whatever02:41
LjLbut above 5 years, you go to a place where most regular people are likely to, uh, find themselves slightly uncomfortable02:41
ryoumaoh, social class concerns are another unease i guess02:42
LjLnow in the nordic countries, i don't know if this reflects reality but at the start of the Millennium trilogy (the "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" books) this journalist is sentenced to prison for 3 months02:42
LjLit's not a "resort" but he has his own cell which is a small room without scary bars or anything, where he can use his computer and stuff02:42
LjLi don't think that's too bad. there are crimes that are serious enough in my opinion to deserve more than a financial fine, but at the same time, they don't deserve having you thrown into a place you may not even come out of, if you are a regular person02:43
LjLalso, many countries, particularly nodic countries and south american countries, are abolishing life in prison, and replacing it with sentences between 20 and 30 years, sometimes renewable but not automatically02:44
ryoumai really don't know much about the topic02:45
LjLthe constitution of italy says the primary purpose of detention is rehabilitation, but that's honestly just on paper here02:46
LjLexcept for a small number of small prisons02:46
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: TWiV 680: Long-term COVID and ME/CFS: Mady Hornig, Fiona Lowenstein, and David Tulles join TWiV to discuss patients with long-term COVID and similarities and differences with ME/CFS. Click arrow to playDownload TWiV 680 (67 MB .mp3, 112 min)Subscribe (free): iTunes, Google Podcasts, RSS, email Become a patron of TWiV! Show [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/E49oBu02:47
LjLthis one might interest you ryouma (but you may want to wait for the transcript, i dunno)02:48
ryoumathere will be a transcript?02:48
ryoumathat could be a good one in principle02:49
LjLryouma, i think so02:49
LjLbut not immediately, they publish them with a bit of a delay02:49
ryoumayes i'd like to see the transcript.  health cannot withstand  right now.02:49
LjLi don't really listen to podcasts, i could health-wise, but i don't know, it's psychological02:50
LjLi have to "pay attention"02:50
LjLof course i have to pay attention to writing too if i want to make any sense of it, but i dunno, it feels different02:50
ryoumayeah02:50
ryoumaidk fiona lowenstein.  hornig researches m.e.  she got covid i think and maybe some type of long covid.  tuller is an investigative reporter and public health person who writes about m.e. and similarly-persecuted diseases.02:51
BrainstormUpdates for US: +23595 cases (now 10.9 million) since 3 hours ago02:51
ryoumahe is at berkeley; she is or was at columbia with lipkin02:52
ryoumaapropos of nothing i think hornig and lipkin did an early pandas / ocd / tic autoimmune paper02:54
ryoumawhich was kind of famous02:54
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: First efficacy results of a COVID-19 vaccine candidate: Results on efficacy of the first of the SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines has been announced by Pfizer this week. The company states that the viral spike-encoding mRNA vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. This announcement is good [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/TKuZkK02:56
ryoumatuller helped in the takedown of hte bad guys enough to turn the pace trial into a morbid laughingstock all of which helped get canada to apologize and cdc to start to change and so on, and the recent nice draft guideline change, all of which will doa  lot of good for those who have loong covid in principle02:57
BrainstormUpdates for US: +26397 cases (now 10.9 million), +182 deaths (now 248585) since 3 hours ago — New Zealand: +4 cases (now 1995) since a day ago03:05
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Billionaire Trump donors Liz and Dick Uihlein test positive for coronavirus: Liz Uihlein, who with her husband is a prominent backer of President Trump, has been critical of government restrictions issued in response to the pandemic. → https://is.gd/59igdH03:06
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: I actually think, more interesting than the blue avg_7d curve is the red foldedphase curve which has no latency at all basically, and the dashed-red R_eff_fp4d based on the solid red curve03:06
DocScrutinizer05the red fp should suffer some overshooting/recoil in theory03:08
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Why Wisconsin is in ‘crisis mode’ amid surging coronavirus cases: Wisconsin Doctor Paul Casey said, “all hospitals across the state are either at or nearing capacity,” as it hits a record number of coronavirus cases. → https://is.gd/3UHwwO03:15
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, does it leave the tönnies peak alone while compensating only for periodicity?03:22
de-factosmoothing by averaging just flattens every peak regardless if its from weekly periodicity or a cluster03:24
BrainstormUpdates for France: +8195 cases (now 1.9 million) since 8 hours ago — Netherlands: +2041 cases (now 432494), +13 deaths (now 8317) since 13 hours ago — Canada: +2733 cases (now 283320), +33 deaths (now 10787) since 6 hours ago03:51
yuriwhoLjL: there was an article published in Science this week that may elevate D614G from mutant to strain status https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/11/science.abe849904:01
ryoumatönnies?04:04
LjLryouma, was?04:05
ryoumawhat is tönnies peak?04:06
LjLa mountain, apparently04:07
LjLwell a hill04:07
de-factolol i meant the cluster outbreak in the tönnies meat processing plant, it was a huge cluster so a peak in incidence04:09
ryoumaok04:10
de-factoits a sharp peak during low incidence time and is not caused by weekly periodicity (e.g. reporting delay) but by a real event04:10
de-factoa smoothing algo targeting only periodic changes should ideally leave that real incidence peak alone04:11
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: I don't know when toennies peak should be seen04:13
DocScrutinizer052020/06/04? 2020/06/18? 2020/06/29?04:15
DocScrutinizer05those are peaks I see04:15
de-factoaround 2020-06-17 or such04:18
DocScrutinizer05I'm uploading new and slightly beautified number format version, wait 5 minutes04:30
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Divide and Conquer Could Be Good COVID Strategy: COVID might be fought efficiently with fewer shutdowns by restricting activities only in a particular area with a population up to 200,000 when its case rate rises above a chosen threshold. -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/oHeiQp04:30
metacomethttps://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a5.htm04:38
DocScrutinizer05>>fewer shutdowns by restricting activities only in a particular area<< wow, quite a new concept </sarcasm>04:46
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: new version uploaded to http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm04:47
de-factook whats the difference?04:48
DocScrutinizer05one datapoint more and truncated decimals to make numbers legible04:50
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +5002 cases (now 520393), +133 deaths (now 13891) since 23 hours ago04:50
de-factonice04:52
de-factowhy do you hide the phase thingy on the wide timespan graph?04:53
DocScrutinizer05the hugest spike in R_eff_fp dashed_red 4 days of foldedphase is around 2020/06/1804:53
DocScrutinizer05I think it gets illegible with 04:54
de-factoyes but where is that foldedphase?04:59
DocScrutinizer052nd from right col, starting 55, 100, 65...05:03
DocScrutinizer05you're scrolling down, are you?05:05
de-facto"of not shown foldedphase"05:09
de-factothe second graph does not go over the tönnies peak05:10
DocScrutinizer05yes#05:10
DocScrutinizer05we had that, no? [13 Nov 2020 04:54:15] <DocScrutinizer05> I think it gets illegible with 05:10
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Migrant smugglers see boost from U.S. pandemic border policy → https://is.gd/y3H8Yq05:26
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: more chrome, hope you find it ueful05:56
DocScrutinizer05particularly, I added headlines for cols and cell borders05:57
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Japan has worst day of Covid cases yet amid fears of winter wave → https://is.gd/xAD9rV06:13
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: on requet of users, now with foldedphase in 1st chart :-)06:59
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +13194 cases (now 762832) since 7 hours ago — Ukraine: +11332 cases (now 515755), +208 deaths (now 9422) since a day ago — British Columbia, Canada: +1130 cases (now 20369), +4 deaths (now 288) since 2 days ago — St Martin, France: +51 cases (now 655) since 7 days ago07:06
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Ethnic minorities disproportionately affected by coronavirus -The Lancet → https://is.gd/aOgjRK07:11
DocScrutinizer05>>Ethnic minority groups were more likely to be employed as essential workers, and hence less able to work from home, the study said<<  wow¡07:13
BrainstormNew preprint: Detection of COVID-19 Disease from Chest X-Ray Images: A Deep Transfer Learning Framework by Shadman Sakib et al, published on 2020-11-12 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.11.08.20227819 [... want %more?]07:21
DocScrutinizer05%more07:38
BrainstormDocScrutinizer05, [...] Host genetic liability for severe COVID-19 overlaps with alcohol drinking behavior and diabetic outcomes and in over 1 million participants by Frank R Wendt et al, published on 2020-11-12 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.11.08.20227884 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/gsxZE07:38
BrainstormDocScrutinizer05, [...] news, but in itself does not signal the end of the pandemic. […] → https://paste.ee/p/MqIcw07:38
DocScrutinizer05umm what?07:40
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: U.S. reports 150,000 new coronavirus cases, setting world record for 3rd day in a row (10027 votes) | https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1327032993031069701 | https://redd.it/jt61n407:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australian COVID-19 vaccine candidate produces antibody response in early tests → https://is.gd/XAWQUn08:28
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid Cull Threat For Gibraltar's Barbary Monkeys → https://is.gd/wsgkCz08:47
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in pets from COVID-19+ households (80 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420302937 | https://redd.it/jt3vcz08:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Clinical trial finds inhaled immune response protein increases odds of recovery for hospitalised COVID-19 patients: Hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the UK who received an inhaled form of interferon beta-1a (SNG001) were more likely to recover and less likely to develop severe symptoms than patients who received a placebo, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/svZ7bJ09:26
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Some allergens that cause contact dermatitis are found in masks that prevent COVID-19: Throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, those able to wear a face mask have been encouraged to do so to prevent transmission of the virus. For some people with skin allergies, wearing a mask can cause further problems. A medically [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/BFYVSE09:36
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Obstetrics & gynaecology: In-utero exposure to coronavirus pandemic could cause developmental difficulties, accelerated aging in the century ahead → https://is.gd/FZqSbA09:47
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Safety and efficacy of inhaled nebulised interferon beta-1a (SNG001) for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial (80 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30511-7/fulltext | https://redd.it/jt66dv10:15
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: U.K. has biggest 1-day jump in confirmed coronavirus cases: The United Kingdom posted its biggest one-day jump in laboratory-confirmed coronavirus infections Thursday as the government reported 33,470 new cases. → https://is.gd/Kqnr1G10:16
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Coronavirus deaths surpass 10,000 in hard-hit Massachusetts: Once a coronavirus hot spot, Massachusetts was seen as a model for infection control this summer as coronavirus cases and deaths dwindled. Now, experts are warning the state could be headed for a bleak winter as its cases climb once again and confirmed deaths surpass 10,000. → https://is.gd/BsgbiG10:28
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Bulgaria's ageing medics struggle on virus front line: With just one doctor and three nurses for every 55 seriously-ill coronavirus patients, staff in the hospital in the eastern Bulgarian city of Shumen say they are at the end of their tether. → https://is.gd/rsal1210:38
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Portugal puts more regions under virus restrictions: Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa said Thursday that coronavirus restrictions already in force in most of the country, including a state of emergency and curfews, would be extended to new regions from Monday. → https://is.gd/7RhvwD10:49
BrainstormNew from BMJ: (news): Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score → https://is.gd/T2txeg11:32
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, nice thanks :)11:42
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine alliance raises $2 billion to buy COVID shots for poor nations → https://is.gd/pNcowA12:13
BrainstormNew from The Atlantic: The Third Surge Is Breaking Health-Care Workers: Editor’s Note: The Atlantic is making vital coverage of the coronavirus available to all readers. Find the collection here . → https://is.gd/qMGm7R13:11
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Ultrasound Imaging Findings of Acute Testicular Infection in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (83 votes) | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jum.15558 | https://redd.it/jtdawi13:22
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Using antibiotics wisely for respiratory tract infection in the era of covid-19: What you need to knowMost acute respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are viral and can be managed through virtual careFor patients with RTI symptoms who test negative for covid-19, a diagnosis of... → https://is.gd/AWMyWw13:30
de-factough13:36
de-factothat does not sound good CoronaBot :(13:36
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Many Pacific Island nations which did not notice any Covid-19 case since the beginning of the pandemic suddenly started reporting their first cases → https://is.gd/bNLHVF14:28
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: No, a hug isn't COVID-safe. But if you have to do it, here's what to keep in mind: In the time of COVID, greetings are no longer by handshakes, hugs or kisses on the cheek. An "elbow bump" is the preferred pandemic greeting. → https://is.gd/gYkf8z14:38
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: New epidemic modelling facilitates assessment of pandemic strategies: The NordicMathCovid project aims to model corona and future epidemics more extensively than has been previously attempted. It also builds towards long-term cooperation in mathematical modeling and extensive collection of health data. → https://is.gd/moNeUI14:48
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Naples primed for new virus curbs as hospitals overwhelmed: The southern Italian city of Naples was braced Friday for further coronavirus restrictions as hospitals risked becoming overwhelmed by new cases, with medics forced to treat patients in their cars. → https://is.gd/BnCkMY14:57
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: German school finds DIY answer to anti-virus ventilation: Keeping the windows open to combat COVID-19 is easier said than done as winter approaches. One German school believes it has found a cheap and simple solution with a DIY ventilation system designed by a teacher's scientist husband. → https://is.gd/1S2RoU15:07
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Dr. Fauci says it appears Covid strain from Danish mink farms won't be a problem for vaccines → https://is.gd/BcvDxt15:16
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Poorer nations face vaccine wait as West locks down supply: Hailed this week as a pandemic game-changer, the new COVID-19 vaccine offered countries that had pre-ordered doses a potential escape from a cycle of lockdowns and new waves of sickness and death. → https://is.gd/vs97hw15:26
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Vaccine roll-out is still months away: How can we avoid more lockdowns in the meantime?: The news of a potentially viable vaccine for COVID-19 is exciting, but even once we start administering an effective jab it will take a long time to halt the spread of the virus. Many countries are still trying to contain dangerous [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/56ww2o15:36
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Q&A: Finding meaning and resilience six months into the pandemic: After passing the six-month mark of coronavirus shutdowns, many people are still struggling to find hope and a sense of meaning in their lives. Much about the virus and how to control it remains uncertain; consequently, rates of depression, anxiety, suicidality [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/t1vPqy15:45
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: New COVID-19 vaccine must be kept ultra-cold; will require novel distribution network: The cold, hard fact is: Pfizer blazed a trail in creating a touted COVID-19 vaccine, but now it must help to equally pioneer an unprecedented way to distribute the drug across the United States and the globe, says a supply chain expert at [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cD99Cu15:55
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Vaccine news great, but COVID-19 therapeutics may have a faster effect, expert says: Fresh COVID-19 vaccine progress is "fantastic" news, but it will take time to implement a vaccine in New Zealand, a University of Otago expert says. → https://is.gd/oYgEd116:05
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. reports record 153,400 new Covid cases as Dr. Fauci urges Americans to be careful: 'It is not futile' → https://is.gd/jSASF316:15
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Tesla's Elon Musk tests positive—and negative—for virus: Tesla founder Elon Musk says he has tested positive for the novel coronavirus while also testing negative, offering a skeptical view of the validity of the procedures. → https://is.gd/fPY1K516:24
rpifannice16:25
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Hydroxychloroquine does not help patients hospitalized with COVID-19: study: Findings from a national study published today in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) "do not support" the use of hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19. → https://is.gd/LyburC16:34
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Chad reports new cases of vaccine-derived polio: Dozens of polio cases have been detected in Chad just months after the UN declared the disease eradicated in Africa, but the government and World Health Organization said Friday that the infections were a vaccine-derived strain. → https://is.gd/bb2B9Y17:02
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Reduced traffic from the world's busiest airports is a tool against future waves of COVID-19: COVID-19 can be fought with interventions aimed at reducing community transmission and international travel by 80% for eight weeks, according to a new report. → https://is.gd/lYGse117:21
kara[m]hi17:26
jacklswhey kara[m] 17:29
jacklswhope you are doing fine there17:29
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: President-elect Joe Biden's Covid advisors nix idea of U.S. lockdown to curb pandemic: "I think of this as a dimmer switch, not an on-and-off light switch," said Dr. Celine Gounder, a coronavirus advisor to President-elect Joe Biden. → https://is.gd/MUy2aM17:31
kara[m]jacklsw: i've been good, you?17:39
jacklswi'm ok here17:39
jacklswmy country got into semi lockdown17:39
kara[m]what country?17:40
jacklswmalaysia17:40
jacklswwhere are you from?17:40
BrainstormNew from StatNews: STAT+: Concerns linger over Cytokinetics, Amgen heart failure drug despite improved study results: Cytokinetics and Amgen presented updated data on a novel drug designed to increase the tension within the muscles of the heart, thereby improving its ability to pump blood. → https://is.gd/AaLQXA17:40
kara[m]have not heard much about them during the pandemic17:40
kara[m]usa17:40
kara[m]malaysia's deaths / Million = 9.4817:41
kara[m]which is pretty good17:41
kara[m]usa = 735.517:42
jacklswya we're just a small country17:45
jacklswbut have similar flag with usa 17:45
jacklswhaha17:45
kara[m]are malaysia's numbers trustworthy?17:45
jacklswi suppose so17:46
jacklswno benefit to hide the real numbers17:46
jacklswjust that we are kinda slow with the testing17:46
jacklswwhich is why the numbers kinda rising in the 3rd wave17:47
kara[m]wow that's like the muslim version of usa's flag!17:47
kara[m]i looked up malaysia's gdp per capita, like 10 000$ usd, makes sense on testing being a bit slow17:48
kara[m]both malaysia and usa are classified as flawed democracies17:48
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Dr. Fauci says it appears Covid strain from Danish mink farms won't be a problem for vaccines (10342 votes) | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/covid-dr-fauci-says-it-appears-outbreak-in-minks-wont-be-a-problem-for-vaccines.html | https://redd.it/jtgb8i17:49
kara[m]does your prime minister take  covid srsly?17:49
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: Lilly’s Monoclonal EUA: I’ve been meaning to write about what has to be called a regulatory mystery. Eli Lilly obtained an Emergency Use Authorization for its monoclonal antibody (bamlanivimab) against SARS-Cov-2, but (as detailed in this post) the dosage that they applied for was 700mg. Which is one-quarter of the dose [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/n1isZ717:50
kara[m]<jacklsw "which is why the numbers kinda r"> 3rd wave? i see 2 waves17:51
jacklswthere a small wave some months ago17:52
jacklswbrought back by somebody who went to india17:52
jacklsw3rd wave started because we proceeded to have state elections and everyone brought back virus to other parts of malaysia17:53
kara[m]very small i guess compared to usa's 2nd wave lol17:53
kara[m]does your prime minister take covid more srsly than trump?17:54
jacklswyep17:56
jacklswyou're glad that he's defeated now? xD17:56
robs_second_choimeet17:58
robs_second_choibye17:58
kara[m]how did u guys manage to have so few cases compared to western countries?17:59
jacklswdiscipline i guess17:59
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): A Phase 2 Clinical Trial of MW33 Injection to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety in Patients With COVID-19 → https://is.gd/yMgrZu17:59
jacklswand most asians scared of dying18:00
kara[m]<jacklsw "you're glad that he's defeated n"> yea lol18:07
kara[m]<jacklsw "and most asians scared of dying"> i think most humans are scared of this18:07
kara[m]is there a mask mandate?18:07
jacklswwe make it a must18:08
jacklswbut not that strong enforcement though18:08
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Microsoft: Russian, North Korean hackers target vaccine work → https://is.gd/zxUD7t18:09
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Swissmedic Begins Rolling Review of Moderna’s mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) (80 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/swissmedic-begins-rolling-review-modernas-mrna-vaccine-against/ | https://redd.it/jtg2k318:13
kara[m]since the beginning of the pandemic?18:16
kara[m]i'm thinking thats the secret to like hk, taiwan, korea, japan having few cases+deaths18:16
jacklswabout mid march time18:18
jacklswwhen we started enforcing lockdown18:18
kara[m]hmm'18:20
jacklswbut most politicians don't wear them 18:21
jacklswthey thought they are immune18:22
jacklswlol18:22
jacklswthey were campaigning without masks during the state elections months ago18:22
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Dental antibiotics up 25% during pandemic: study: The amount of antibiotics prescribed by dentists in Britain has soared by a quarter since COVID-19 struck, according to research published Friday highlighting the risk of a "slow-motion" pandemic of antibiotic resistance. → https://is.gd/F6TyrQ18:29
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Pneumonia kills 140,000 children each year in Nigeria: Pneumonia kills around 143,000 children under the age of five each year in Nigeria, the government said Thursday, with the coronavirus pandemic hampering access to life-saving treatment. → https://is.gd/04cduc18:39
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: E. coli outbreak may be linked to recalled romaine lettuce: A link between an Escherichia coli outbreak that has sickened 12 people in six states and recalled romaine lettuce sold by Tanimura & Antle is being investigated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. → https://is.gd/fYFRIW18:48
kara[m]anyone know about czechia?18:50
tinwhiskerskara[m]: why? has something happened there?18:53
tinwhiskersThey kinda became the poster children for inspiring mask wearing in the west (the east were quietly going about that anyway), and they claimed masks were the reason they were doing so well, but in fact they never really did any better than elsewhere and have continued go from bad to worse, much in time with the rest of Europe, but unlike some places in Europe have not managed to make any impact yet.19:00
tinwhiskersI think they're back in full lockdown now but we're yet to see any results of that.19:00
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: CureVac’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, CVnCoV, Suitable for Standard Fridge Temperature Logistics (82 votes) | https://www.curevac.com/en/2020/11/12/curevacs-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-cvncov-suitable-for-standard-fridge-temperature-logistics/ | https://redd.it/jthpvx19:01
tinwhiskersI have this (completely speculative) idea that they became so fixated on their mask coup that they became complacent to other measures and it got away from them.19:02
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Dissecting the immune characteristics of severe COVID-19 responses: A team of immunology experts from research organisations in Belgium and the UK have come together to apply their pioneering research methods to put individuals' COVID-19 response under the microscope. Published today in the journal Clinical and Translational [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ewaUL919:07
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Benefits of high-dose blood thinners in COVID-19 patients remain unclear: While COVID-19 infected patients should be treated with standard anticoagulation therapies, such as blood thinning medication, a new study by researchers at the George Washington University (GW) shows that anticoagulating patients at higher doses, without [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zRNmV319:17
kara[m]no, but i have questions about them19:20
tinwhiskersprobably best to ask your question then19:21
kara[m]well nothing besides high deaths/cases19:21
kara[m]deaths and* cases19:21
tinwhiskersYeah, so that's what I meant with my "speculative idea".19:24
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Ingredients in flu vaccine won't hurt you—two pharmacists explain why: Misunderstandings about flu vaccines have existed for decades, leading to vaccine mistrust and lower-than-ideal vaccination rates. Now that a coronavirus vaccine appears to be close, experts are concerned that the lack of trust and understanding about flu [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/3WiR7Z19:27
LjLmy aunt who was positive... is still positive after a second test19:27
LjLstill has symptoms, but mild19:27
LjLcough, fatigue and headaches19:27
tinwhiskersBy population Czechia are the second worst in Europe for new cases (after Belgium) and they have the fastest growing death rate. The fast growing death rate may indicate hospitals are at or nearing capacity(??).19:28
tinwhiskersLjL: how long between the two tests?19:28
LjLi was wondering, i guess the easiest way to know is checking my irc logs :P19:28
tinwhiskers:-)19:29
LjLokay the previous test was probably on 24 October19:29
LjLor 23 or so19:29
tinwhiskersouch19:29
LjLshe's self-isolating and also isolating from her husband, together with her daughter who also had a couple of days of fever, because the husband has nothing but is more at risk19:30
tinwhiskersThat must be becoming quite a chore by now19:30
LjLi bet19:30
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Health: Dating During the Pandemic: Can You Trust an 'Antibody Positive' Claim? → https://is.gd/RHvH6G19:36
Jigsy%cases UK19:40
BrainstormTypeError: argument of type 'NoneType' is not iterable (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 162, in covid)19:41
Jigsy...19:41
JigsyHelpful.19:41
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: California, Oregon and Washington issue Covid travel advisory urging 14-day quarantine: The West Coast states issued a joint coronavirus travel advisory on Friday urging people arriving to their states to self-quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. → https://is.gd/EsUost19:46
LjL:(19:47
tinwhiskersoh. I know who's going to get the blame...19:48
LjLnah i've messed up the code horribly last night19:49
LjLand i'm not reasonable enough to have it versioned19:49
tinwhiskersoh. ok19:49
LjLJigsy, i'll let you know when it's fixed19:50
scorpion2185[m]https://www.stopworldcontrol.com/proof#19:52
scorpion2185[m]https://www.stopworldcontrol.com/planned/19:52
tinwhiskersscorpion2185[m]: you won't find a receptive audience to that bullshit here.19:52
tinwhiskersno more19:53
scorpion2185[m]Do not be so certain.19:53
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Why does COVID-19 seem to spare children? New study offers an answer: Researchers at Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) and their colleagues have determined a key factor as to why COVID-19 appears to infect and sicken adults and older people preferentially while seeming to spare younger children. → https://is.gd/XUDpC719:55
LjLscorpion2185[m], certain of what? this is not a room for propaganda, so, either you don't do that anymore, or you leave20:00
de-factocurrently we got a serious problem that affects everyone, so please think about the consequences of your actions, we all are in one boat with this and need solidarity and cohesion20:03
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Children more likely to be infected in second wave → https://is.gd/f1282o20:14
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +40902 cases (now 1.1 million), +550 deaths (now 44139) since a day ago — Russia: +21983 cases (now 1.9 million), +411 deaths (now 32443) since a day ago — Illinois, US: +15415 cases (now 551957), +45 deaths (now 10891) since a day ago — Austria: +9586 cases (now 191228), +53 deaths (now 1661) since a day ago20:16
LjL%cases UK20:19
BrainstormLjL: In United Kingdom, there have been 1.3 million confirmed cases (2.0% of the population) and 51304 deaths (3.9% of cases) as of 14 minutes ago. 37.9 million tests were performed (3.5% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.20:19
LjLJigsy, it's slower than it needs to be when responding, but it works again20:19
BrainstormUpdates for Ohio, US: +8071 cases (now 282528), +44 deaths (now 5736) since 23 hours ago — US: +85168 cases (now 10.9 million), +527 deaths (now 248930) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +17499 cases (now 767137), +168 deaths (now 12444) since 20 hours ago20:21
BrainstormUpdates for Delaware, US: +470 cases (now 28016), +2 deaths (now 734) since 23 hours ago — US: +99782 cases (now 10.9 million), +652 deaths (now 249055) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +18593 cases (now 768231), +170 deaths (now 12446) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +5557 cases (now 286144), +77 deaths (now 10831) since 23 hours ago20:36
BrainstormUpdates for US: +125977 cases (now 11.0 million), +750 deaths (now 249153) since 21 hours ago20:50
BrainstormUpdates for US: +136924 cases (now 11.0 million), +886 deaths (now 249289) since 21 hours ago21:05
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Health: Coronavirus News Roundup, November 7-November 13 → https://is.gd/EUhlij21:12
scorpion2185[m]<LjL "scorpion2185, certain of what? t"> propaganda of what? 21:18
BrainstormUpdates for US: +144274 cases (now 11.0 million), +982 deaths (now 249385) since 21 hours ago — Germany: +21444 cases (now 771082), +212 deaths (now 12488) since 21 hours ago — Switzerland: +99 deaths (now 3315) since 21 hours ago21:20
LjLscorpion2185[m], ultimately it's what the room moderators consider propaganda. off the top of my head, denial of the virus's existence or importance, as well as theories that the virus was put there for world domination and similar, are not really subjects of discussions here. i'm sure there are places where those theories can be discussed, but this is a place where people have respect for the victims of this virus as well as for the measures that are put 21:21
LjLin place to stop it (not entirely devoid of criticism of course, but on the specifics, not on the general concept of having measures)21:21
LjLbut anyway as a rule of thumb, if someone i've never seen before randomly posts a link or two with something concerning conspiracies and plans, that's not going to go down well21:22
scorpion2185[m]they say that  hydroxychloroquine is a ggod cure, countries that used it don' t have covid problem anymore21:25
tinwhiskersno, all the evidence shows it has little, if any, effect and a moderate chance of causing harm. It does more harm than good. Get your head out of the sand with this conspiracy nonsense. No more of this crap. Last warning.21:27
kara[m]tinwhiskers: "they never really did any better than elsewhere" really? i thought in beginning they were doing better than other westerners21:27
kara[m]LjL: your aunt has been contagious for a few weeks? i thought 2 weeks contagiousnesss was the max21:28
LjLkara[m], a positive PCR doesn't imply you are contagious21:29
LjLscorpion2185[m], who is "they"? certainly not peer-reviewed science, which says pretty much the opposite of that.21:29
kara[m]"A polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, which is used to diagnose COVID-19 by swabbing the throat or nose, can help determine if a person is still carrying the virus but it doesn’t always tell us if they’re still contagious. "21:33
rpifani need to take a pcr test21:33
rpifanto travel21:33
kara[m]LjL: "Though some people may potentially shed small amounts of virus weeks after being diagnosed, others who continue to test positive may be carrying noninfectious viral remains in their body, according to Heinz."21:34
LjLyes21:34
LjLhowever a positive PCR test implies you must continue self-isolating, as a cautionary measure, although i think in italy now there is a new rule that lets you leave self-isolation with a positive test if you've had no symptoms for a while21:35
LjLbut i don't know the details21:35
BrainstormUpdates for Arkansas, US: +2312 cases (now 130318), +4 deaths (now 2148) since 23 hours ago — US: +155535 cases (now 11.0 million), +1029 deaths (now 249432) since 21 hours ago21:36
kara[m]"A limited number of persons with severe illness may produce replication-competent virus beyond 10 days that may warrant extending duration of isolation and precautions for up to 20"21:37
kara[m]LjL: so i guess your aunt doesn't have to isolate after 20 days?21:37
LjLkara[m], she must continue isolating for now21:37
LjLpartly as she has symptoms, i guess21:37
LjLthis is down to laws in individual places21:37
kara[m]it's been 20 days i think21:38
kara[m]rpifan: did not know countries require pcr to travel21:39
tinwhiskerskara[m]: by population they were in the lower third of the EU (behind the likes of Greece, Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia, Lativa, Poland, Slovenia, Cyprus) mostly just because they didn't get hit early like some of the larger countries. Nothing changed around the time they made fame for the #Masks4All campaign, and they have only got relatively worse since then. They claimed success but really don't have any reason to.21:39
rpifanyea21:39
tinwhiskersYet, all credit to them for helping the world take the mask message to heart. 21:40
tinwhiskersthey did a great job in that regard.21:40
kara[m]duckduckgo: "guiness world record for longest time with coronavirus symptoms"21:43
kara[m]no world record easily findable21:44
kara[m]for those ppl who are hospitalized with covid for like 3 months, are they contagious for like all 3 months?21:44
tinwhiskersno21:45
kara[m]tinwhiskers: good thing the antimaskers nvr heard that czechia had nothing to show lmao!!21:45
tinwhiskerswell, some may be but it would be a small minority21:45
tinwhiskerskara[m]: lol21:45
kara[m]rpifan: how does pcr for travel work? Is your host country requiring it to leave or is the destination country requiring it to enter?21:48
kara[m]by the time covid19 is defeated, we will have at least 1 person who is hospitalized for a yr21:49
rpifandestination21:50
kara[m]imo host and destination countries should do a covid test21:51
BrainstormUpdates for US: +158879 cases (now 11.0 million), +1042 deaths (now 249445) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +5729 cases (now 286316) since a day ago21:51
kara[m]rpifan: what happens if the destination finds that ur sick?21:52
rpifanwell21:52
rpifanyou need a negative pcr before yo uenter21:52
rpifanand in the case o germany21:52
rpifanwhen u come back you gotta take it21:52
rpifanand go into quarantine for 4 days21:52
kara[m]germany is the destination?21:53
rpifanno21:55
rpifanthats where im coming fro21:55
kara[m]negative pcr to enter the destination right? if someone is positive, will they like be deported?21:57
rpifanwell i imagine theyd send you back on the plane21:59
scorpion2185[m]<LjL "scorpion2185, who is "they"? cer"> Professor Didier Raoult is considered the world expert on infectious diseases. He has his own ‘army’ of scientific researchers and has led a hundred medical theses and university doctorates. His opinion has influenced world leaders and his voice carries great international authority.22:00
rpifanmy only problem atm is figuring out ow to time the pcr test22:00
rpifanyou have 72 hours from when you took the test to enter22:00
rpifanbut it takes at least 24 hours to get the results22:00
kara[m]rpifan:  and bill the the traveller, that would sux for them lol. I think it's a good idea overall tho22:00
kara[m]threading the needle lol, thats like a minor IQ test to enter22:01
scorpion2185[m]> <@freenode_LjL:matrix.org> scorpion2185, who is "they"? certainly not peer-reviewed science, which says pretty much the opposite of that.22:01
scorpion2185[m] * Professor Didier Raoult is considered the world expert on infectious diseases. He has his own ‘army’ of scientific researchers and has led a hundred medical theses and university doctorates. His opinion has influenced world leaders and his voice carries great international authority.22:01
scorpion2185[m]At the beginning of the pandemic, professor Raoult started treating covid patients with a medicine that has been around for over sixty years and is famous for its safety and efficiency in defeating coronaviruses: hydroxychloroquine. https://www.stopworldcontrol.com/cures/22:01
rpifanpretty much22:01
BrainstormNew from PLOS ONE: Quantitative risk assessment of haemolytic uremic syndrome associated with beef consumption in Argentina: by Victoria Brusa, Magdalena Costa, Nora L. Padola, Analía Etcheverría, Fernando Sampedro, Pablo S. Fernandez, Gerardo A. Leotta, Marcelo L. Signorini We developed a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Dg6ZAC22:04
kara[m]tinwhiskers: tonga right? 22:06
BrainstormUpdates for Kansas, US: +6047 cases (now 116858), +41 deaths (now 1256) since 22 hours ago — US: +171220 cases (now 11.0 million), +1105 deaths (now 249508) since 22 hours ago22:06
kara[m]%cases tonga22:06
Brainstormkara[m]: Sorry, tonga not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.22:06
kara[m]tinwhiskers: i can't find tonga in offloop either22:07
BrainstormUpdates for US: +173222 cases (now 11.0 million), +1146 deaths (now 249549) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +4869 cases (now 286317) since 22 hours ago22:20
LjLscorpion2185[m], who is the "world expert" on anything is not relevant here. HCQ had some initial promise as a treatment for COVID-19, then reliable papers were published showing it has no benefit and may cause harm. science is about figuring things out, especially when we're dealing with something new. a horrible mistake is just sticking to what some specific "expert" said before good science was done on the subject.22:20
LjLkara[m], because it has no cases22:20
kara[m]thxs, tinwhiskers: is the person who made offloop? maybe add tonga and have it list 0 cases22:26
LjLi don't know how his code works, but he gets data from upstream sources and if those don't include some countries then those won't be included in offloop either. he could separately source a full list of countries but i suspect it would add complication for little gain. that's just my thoughts on it though22:28
kara[m]LjL: i could be interpreting this wrong, but i suspect scorpion is some kind of rightwinger + covid denier. If i'm reading the situation correctly, scopion could not be convinced with science/liberal facts or logic. Scorpion would need a rightwing appeal. If scorpion is merican, that'd be like an appeal to god or smthg22:28
LjLwe shall seeeee22:29
kara[m]any idea why italy increased so much in deaths + cases? like are ppl not social distancing?22:31
LjLkara[m], it's increasing in cases less than exponentially now22:32
LjLthe deaths are just an obvious consequence of the prior case surge22:32
LjLso far it has still surged less than say France22:32
LjLand France is on a national lockdown, Italy is only on a regional lockdown22:32
kara[m]before the regional lockdown, were ppl still social distancing?22:33
LjLsome were, some weren't22:34
LjLthere were definitely issues (like in all of europe) with nightlife22:34
LjLwhich is why much of europe implemented curfews22:34
kara[m]if i remember correctly,22:34
LjLitaly implemented a curfew in Lombardy but now all of Italy has a curfew, but only parts have a lockdown22:34
LjLtoday's numbers are higher than yesterday's BUT the ratio between cases and tests is actually lower22:35
kara[m]i think during the great lockdown - where evyone was locked down hard in the beginning - ppl were scared and not pandemic fatigued and were pretty good about social dist22:35
BrainstormUpdates for Kentucky, US: +3164 cases (now 132844), +25 deaths (now 1647) since a day ago — US: +176708 cases (now 11.0 million), +1171 deaths (now 249574) since 22 hours ago22:35
LjLpeople who are not idiots are still scared. or scared again.22:35
kara[m]after the great lockdown, were a lot of ppl not social distancing?22:36
LjLkara[m], during the summer there was a lot of carelessness22:36
LjLpartly encouraged by the state, to say it all22:37
kara[m]i suspect some countries largely abandon contact tracing after the apps didn't pick up22:37
LjLto foster tourism to make up for lost GDP22:37
LjLkara[m], contact tracing was taking place before any app even existed22:37
LjLthe app can never be the only source of contact tracing22:37
LjLkara[m], anyway have a look at this graph https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6 and if it doesn't link you to a graph go to "Tamponi giornalieri e contagiati". you can use the bar at the bottom to zoom to a specific time period (the end, namely). gray is the amount of tests, red is the amount of cases, and the black line is the ratio of the two. i think you can see there was scary exponential growth but now it's high but somewhat static22:38
kara[m]it seems a lot like masks + not social distance isn't enough to prevent hospitals from overflowing22:39
LjLthat was always considered true22:39
LjLthat's why there was concern with people becoming "complacent" with masks22:40
LjLi thought masks were useful, but the concern was legitimate22:40
LjLi just thought it was silly to turn the concern into "let's not wear masks then". instead it should be turned into "how do we make people not complacent"22:40
kara[m]i've nevr seen a graph with the ratio.22:41
LjLkara[m], compared to our neighboring countries, i think Italy's numbers are actually updated reasonably well. for some countries such a graph would make no sense. just look at how ridiculously stepwise the graphs in France and Spain are...22:42
LjLwe test *less* in the weekends, they don't report cases *at all* in the weekends. that's a bit radical22:43
LjLmeanwhile22:43
LjL%title https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-herd-immunity-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-hospitalisations-surge-2020-1122:43
BrainstormLjL: From www.businessinsider.com: Sweden's herd immunity hopes dashed by second coronavirus wave - Business Insider22:43
LjL"So it seems to follow this pattern that if you had a lot of cases during the spring you also see a lot of cases now... We don't know why this is."22:44
LjLthis is an interesting observation, de-facto22:44
LjLi highlight you because of your perplexities with things happening at around the same time continent-wide22:44
kara[m]what exactly does the ratio demonstrate? Like why is it valuable?22:44
LjLkara[m], because the number of positives found is largely a function of the number of tests made22:46
LjLif you test 100 people and find 10 positives, do you think that if you tested 200 people instead, you'd still find 10 positives?22:46
LjLgiven a large enough population and a testing strategy that verges enough on "random" (which is the case when you can't track and trace very well anymore), your expectation is more like 2022:47
LjLso the ratio of cases to tests is a much better view of how the actual curve is changing, although it's not perfect either22:47
de-factowell some immanent structure in society e.g. cities etc seems to be the backbone for pathogen reproduction, if it repeats all over it probably means that the relevant structured did not change similar mechanisms are at work for similar dynamics (relative to each others)22:48
LjLkara[m], look at the data for the US here: http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US&legacy=no   it has recently picked up pace, around what day would you say the curve started changing slope and going up again?22:48
LjLde-facto, during the first wave in Italy, cities were relatively spared, it was mostly small towns and villages that were hit hard. not so this time22:49
kara[m]"cities were relatively spared, it was mostly small towns and villages that were hit hard."  wow nevr expect that!22:50
BrainstormUpdates for US: +181386 cases (now 11.0 million), +1189 deaths (now 249592) since 23 hours ago22:50
kara[m]LjL: the american graph has to be switched to day-by-day as oppose to cumulative22:50
kara[m]it looks like usa started entering the current wave around the 2nd oct22:51
kara[m]around oct 2**22:51
LjLkara[m], well Bergamo is not exactly the biggest city in Italy, and even there, it was various towns in its province that were hit hardest, not the city itself22:51
de-factohmm interesting, so maybe prevalence of active infections did not reach the critical "threshold" value in the cities in the first wave? i mean at least two things would have to come together: 1) the pathogen itself would have to be present and 2) the behavior of the people would have to allow for replication22:52
kara[m]wow spain's graph without smooth really is a staircase22:52
LjLkara[m], yes feel free to switch the graph to non-cumulative, then go down to Tests, since the legacy data has that. after the first half of october some funny things seem to happen to the amount of testing22:52
LjLkara[m], Sweden's also (i just checked, hadn't for a while). interesting because it wasn't a staircase last spring22:53
LjLde-facto, i can't really explain it. Milan was relatively spared even though some towns, like in the area of Lodi, were hit hard which are towns where many people commute daily with Milan, many on crowded trains22:54
kara[m]the usa test data seems to be incomplete. I know we suck, but offloop we tested 0 from aug to sep22:55
LjLde-facto, could it be down to people in cities being generally wealthier and with higher education meaning they perceived the risk and hunkered down earlier, while countryside tended to be more "oh come on, this can't be anything"? sorry if this hypothesis sounds offensive, i'm just brainstorming, in the US for instance the countryside is all red and the cities are all blue, you know22:55
kara[m]but offlopp said** we22:55
LjLkara[m], well yeah there could be better places to look it up maybe, i only know the one for italy, i can't keep track of every other site so i just resort to offloop22:56
kara[m]italy's testing graph looks pretty reasonable22:57
de-factoLjL actually now when you mention it i think i observed the same with our city here: we did relatively well in the first wave and now cases raise like crazy22:57
de-factomaybe people think it cant happen in our city hence put less effort into containment?22:58
LjLde-facto, but the first time they thought it could happen?22:59
kara[m]de-facto, what country r u in?22:59
de-factoGermany23:00
de-factoyes the first wave everyone was very careful, lots of uncertainty23:00
LjLde-facto, it seems silly to think it "can't" happen in cities... if anything it's surprising it didn't at first23:01
kara[m]afaik, nyc was hit pretty hard wave 1, but it could have been country folks were being driven in to the nyc hospital23:01
LjLafter all it *started* in a very big city23:01
LjLnah it was mostly NYC23:01
de-factoi think (reverse) psychology plays a big role in dynamics because it got a big impact on peoples behavior23:02
kara[m]within china, wuhan might not count as a big city, but i digress23:02
de-factoand since containment only is a good as its leaks cohesion and solidarity is of paramount importance23:03
kara[m]<de-facto "i think (reverse) psychology pla"> yea i was thinking this is how sweden did better than usa... plus not having trump23:05
BrainstormUpdates for US: +187647 cases (now 11.0 million), +1336 deaths (now 249739) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +5752 cases (now 436837) since 21 hours ago23:06
kara[m]my theory about east asian countries doiing well:23:06
kara[m]they're collectivist countries iirc. Western nations and individualistic23:06
kara[m]they're collectivist countries iirc. Western nations r** individualistic23:07
LjLmy theory after reading yesterday's paper:23:07
LjLthey didn't mostly get D614G23:07
de-factopeople have to understand the consequences of their actions and the importance of agreement about cohesion since containment is only as good as its leaks23:07
kara[m]anyone have any theories about why east asian countries did well?23:08
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Trump says coronavirus vaccine won't be delivered to New York right away: President Donald Trump said Friday that the U.S. government would not deliver a coronavirus vaccine to New York if and when one is available. → https://is.gd/T6IMJF23:12
kara[m]which paper?23:12
rpifanlol23:12
ryoumar**?23:15
derpadminit's okay, he'll be out by then23:16
ryoumaare * and * standing for something?23:17
ryoumaanyway there is no country near nyc.  just suburbs.23:17
ryoumaactually idk what is to the w of nyc but i doubt it is country23:18
kara[m]<LjL "they didn't mostly get D614G"> wo seeing the paper, id' think it can be. D614G should get over to east asia via a tourist eventually23:19
ryoumakara[m]: some theories:23:21
ryoumamore concern for others, mask wearing habit, previous outbreaks, different strain, different corruption structure, heard from neighboring countries earlier23:21
BrainstormUpdates for Massachusetts, US: +2906 cases (now 183095), +23 deaths (now 10265) since 23 hours ago — US: +192106 cases (now 11.0 million), +1362 deaths (now 249765) since 23 hours ago23:21
kara[m]LjL: wo seeing the paper, id' think it can't** be. D614G should get over to east asia via a tourist eventually23:23
kara[m]S rank typos over here, sorry!23:23
ryoumathe first lockdown i remember outside of china was the entire island of hokkaido.  20,000 chinese and russian tourists.  it seemed like a really harsh measire and indication that it was really serious.  in retrospect it was a brilliant move by the prefectural governor and the right thing to do.  afaik there were no protests.23:23
kara[m]ryouma: are23:25
ryouma?23:25
ryoumawhat does s rank stand for?  special?23:26
LjLkara[m], well, then why is it not widespread there yet?23:26
ryoumaare you in .jp?23:26
LjLChina is pretty airtight to foreigners now afiak23:26
kara[m]i'm thinking we might be able to make a formula for countries that handle covid well, ignoring possible D614G luck.23:27
ryoumathat would be quite interesting, but i am always skeptical of not-really-objective measures like questionnaires and such23:29
LjLwe haven't even found a site that summarizes measures taken in every country with a timeline and granularity of type of measures that is not too coarse but still lets one compare them23:30
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: A cost-effective program to fight COVID-19 in resource-challenged countries: A public health strategy that combines contact tracing and community-based screening with isolation and quarantine centers can substantially reduce infections, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 while being cost-effective in [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mMCvZL23:31
ryoumayeah it would be really good to have some attempt to collect and classify measures taken23:32
ryoumawith timelines23:32
BrainstormUpdates for US: +194037 cases (now 11.0 million), +1392 deaths (now 249795) since 23 hours ago23:35
kara[m]i guess 0. having enough money for hospitals, ventilators, ppe etc23:36
ryoumait might also be that different countries have different ventilation or predilection for being outdoors etc.23:37
ryoumaalthough asia (really subjectively) seems to be quite crowded in the big cities to me23:37
kara[m]am i missing anything? or have the order wrong?23:37
ryoumaborders, lockdowns, masks23:38
kara[m]ryouma: won't all countries get the same dominate strains eventually?23:39
ryoumait doesn't seem to be too sunlight-related23:39
ryoumanot obviously anyway23:39
LjLkara[m], that seems all very arbitrary to me23:44
LjLand also most IRC users are probably not going to click on a link to a multi-line message, just so you know :P23:44
LjLyour list doesn't include the obvious: "lockdown"23:44
kara[m]<ryouma "what does s rank stand for?  spe"> It's a school grade afaik. S, A+, A, A-, B+ etc. from animes23:46
kara[m]<LjL "kara, well, then why is it not w"> did not know this. Is D614G in australia or new zealand?23:49
kara[m]ryouma: i don't think previous outbreaks help that much. but let me fact check myself first23:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Researchers identify promising new compounds to potentially treat novel coronaviruses: Researchers at the University of Maryland School of Medicine (UMSOM) and School of Pharmacy (UMSOP) have discovered new drug compounds to potentially treat the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The compounds disrupt the functioning of a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/EA8YoK23:50
kara[m]ryouma: usa23:50
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +23184 cases (now 772822), +227 deaths (now 12503) since a day ago — US: +194743 cases (now 11.0 million), +1420 deaths (now 249823) since a day ago — Canada: +5253 cases (now 286701), +67 deaths (now 10826) since 23 hours ago23:50
ryoumawhat would you do to determine that previous outbreaks do not help much?  .tw is cited as an example of such.  political will existed.23:52
ryoumaif you have correlations for the largest 100 countries or so then great i guess23:53
kara[m]i assume israel must have mers trouble, but it's deaths / Mill is like top 30 globally (298.9)23:53
ryoumaseems like lots of variables23:53
kara[m]fun fact mers still killed some ppl as of 201823:54
kara[m]<ryouma "it doesn't seem to be too sunlig"> i heard vitamin D reduces covid hospitalization. Lots of countries have fortified foods already23:55
kara[m]irc doesn't have multi lines?23:56
ryoumaone line per message.  client wraps.23:57
kara[m]<LjL "your list doesn't include the ob"> i think lockdowns might not work in the long run - the population starts protest/rioting and might then resist other measures like social distancing and masks, or elect antiscience polititicans23:59
LjLkara[m], i couldn't find an up-to-date map so i actually spent some time figuring out how to use Nextstrain... https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=gt-S_614  it seems the G strain is prevalent worldwide now, but Asia still has a sizable amount of D while Europe barely so. this map looked quite different last spring23:59

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