| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Canada PM calls for redoubling of efforts in Covid-19 fight as cases spike: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called on Canadians Friday to redouble efforts to slow the spread of Covid-19, citing a record number of new cases and projections the count could soon double. → https://is.gd/P0zxLo | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | kara[m], well you may think that, but that's why i said your list was arbitrary. there is no way we can answer if the order is right or wrong and whether you're including the right or the wrong thing since you wrote it entirely subjectively | 00:00 |
| LjL | kara[m], vitamin D is associated with poor outcomes for a lot of diseases, but there is little evidence that this correlation is actual causation, in other words: people who are more frail will tend to have less vitamin D, and also fare worse with diseases, but the two things may be consequences of the same thing without one causing the other. for instance, older, more vulnerable people on average will see less sun | 00:01 |
| LjL | that said, there are some interesting papers about vitamin D with respect to COVID. but just don't get overenthusiastic | 00:02 |
| kara[m] | i'd be interested in reading a lockdown study about it's effectiveness per region. Ex, might work in collectivist countries, might make things worse in usa. | 00:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Colorado, US: +6439 cases (now 154038), +36 deaths (now 2504) since 23 hours ago — US: +207730 cases (now 11.1 million), +1509 deaths (now 249912) since a day ago | 00:05 |
| kara[m] | <ryouma "what would you do to determine t"> israel prob had mers, but still didn't do very well with covid. new zealand didn't have mers but did very well with covid. i don't have a study unfortunately, so just what i noticed | 00:07 |
| ryouma | it worked in one of hte most insane us states, az. for the duration that it existed. whether they will all go around shooting one another with another lockdown is another question. but it is possible in principle that americans in general are surprisingly ok with correctly done lockdowns if they are presented right. | 00:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Oregon and New Mexico order lockdowns, other states resist: The governors of Oregon and New Mexico ordered near-lockdowns Friday in the most aggressive response yet to the latest wave of coronavirus infections shattering records across the U.S., even as many of their colleagues in other states show little appetite for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/LFx0yX | 00:09 |
| ryouma | topica | 00:09 |
| ryouma | l | 00:09 |
| LjL | ryouma, did Biden win in AZ eventually, i forget | 00:09 |
| yuriwho | yep, he also won PA and GA | 00:10 |
| kara[m] | LjL: heck that website is hard to use | 00:10 |
| LjL | kara[m], it's easy to use compared to the hardcode genome crunching tools :P | 00:10 |
| kara[m] | i'll just take your word on nextstrain lmao | 00:11 |
| LjL | yuriwho, i just brought myself to figure out how to get Nextstrain to show me a map of D614G, since other sites just had outdated maps, and G is very prevalent everywhere now. so maybe i have to take it back that it explains why Asia is faring better | 00:11 |
| yuriwho | kara[m]: nextstrain.org is designed by scientists for scientists.... it's very data heavy | 00:12 |
| yuriwho | LjL: yes it seems to be dominant where ever the virus is circulating now | 00:12 |
| ryouma | this is really really obvious but the irony is that 1) there is probably a positive correlation between those protesting measures and those who support restrictions on freedom 2) govs are /reluctant/ to take measures; lockdowns and mask orders have not ratchet-effectedly reduced freedoms | 00:13 |
| kara[m] | LjL: yea my list is mostly opinion. But i think it covers all the basics, like testing and contact tracing being important | 00:15 |
| ryouma | the exceptions are unnoticed and are not being protested. these might include such things as fema or others diverting ppe, emergency powers legislation, and triage rules. especially the last. those are the things to watch wrt, literally, life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. | 00:15 |
| de-facto | makes sense if D614G really means a faster initial replication in the upper respiratory tract even if not more severe at later stages that the implied raise in initial viral shedding upon carriers environment means a significant advantage for its transmission hence replication and dominance over the other strains | 00:15 |
| ryouma | but the motherfuckers who protest fucking mask orders don't care about those. they are anti-freedom. | 00:15 |
| yuriwho | it's very hard to stop people from socializing.... masks are mandatory in public indoor spaces here but covid cases are rising now in Canada after Thanksgiving and Haloween | 00:16 |
| ryouma | (i basically never swear) | 00:16 |
| LjL | yuriwho, we had the same experience here. mandatory masking, for a while it seemed we were faring better than other EU countries, but then "whoops" | 00:16 |
| LjL | masks are just a bit of help | 00:16 |
| LjL | i think it was misleading to tell people (i've seen a few articles about this) that if 90% or so of people wore masks, the epidemic would basically end | 00:17 |
| LjL | we didn't know that. we still don't, but the answer is probably no | 00:17 |
| kara[m] | what is D and G on nextstrain? | 00:17 |
| ryouma | thanksgiving in the usa is really a concern | 00:17 |
| LjL | kara[m], they are amino acids. the D614G mutation means that in position 614 (of the Spike protein), D mutated into G | 00:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New York fights virus resurgence as global daily deaths top 10,000: New York battled to fend off a second wave of coronavirus infections with new restrictions on bars and restaurants Friday, as the pandemic rages across the US and global daily deaths topped 10,000 for the first time. → https://is.gd/xvMX7d | 00:18 |
| LjL | https://molbiol-tools.ca/Amino_acid_abbreviations.htm | 00:18 |
| LjL | kara[m], so G is the amounts of sequences with the mutation, D without | 00:18 |
| kara[m] | <LjL "kara, so G is the amounts of seq"> ohhh | 00:19 |
| yuriwho | kara[m]: D614G is a mutation in the virus that appears to increase transmission of the virus. D stands for the amino acid Aspartic acid at position 614 of the spike protein that has been changed by mutation into a Glycine. | 00:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +208436 cases (now 11.1 million), +1516 deaths (now 249919) since a day ago | 00:21 |
| ryouma | yuriwho: are we lucky that more strains have not already emerged? | 00:22 |
| kara[m] | okay i'm using nextstrain a bit better now! | 00:22 |
| ryouma | given previous outbreaks etc. | 00:22 |
| kara[m] | so D614G is basically on evy country | 00:22 |
| yuriwho | ryouma: I doubt we will see any new simple mutations... given the rate of mutation and the number of viral replication cycles I expect most easy mutations have been sampled.... I worry about situations like with the mink where the virus jumps from humans to an animal and back as those are situations where a drastic combination of mutations can occur. | 00:25 |
| kara[m] | if D614G kills more ppl, then wave 2/3 might rock asians countries pretty hard then since its more recently there | 00:26 |
| yuriwho | D614G is not more lethal.... just more easily spread | 00:26 |
| ryouma | yuriwho: interesting. but is this virus particularly slow at mutating? or is it about normal? | 00:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Italy extends partial lockdown as Naples hospitals struggle: The regions of Italy that include the cities of Naples and Florence were declared coronavirus red zones Friday, the latest signals of the dire condition of Italian hospitals struggling with a surge of new admissions. → https://is.gd/FxCWmj | 00:27 |
| ryouma | or, particularly free of potential mutations caused in humans per se | 00:28 |
| LjL | "the regions that include Naples and Florence" lest anyone learn that those are called Campania and Tuscany! i mean who'd care to know about Tuscany | 00:28 |
| ryouma | all i know is it looks like a boot with a football | 00:28 |
| LjL | one of the few certainties we have in life | 00:29 |
| yuriwho | ryouma: this virus is slow to mutate compared with most common viruses.... but given the massive spread and reproduction, all simple point mutations and combinations of those have likely already been sampled.... however when the virus jumps from one species to another, hypermutation and selection happens rapidly that can cause big changes rapidly | 00:29 |
| ryouma | because of high selection pressure in new hosts i presume. so are humans just too close to animals? | 00:30 |
| kara[m] | :pinched_finger: emoji | 00:30 |
| LjL | yuriwho, what is the thing that makes it slow at mutation? i've heard people say it has some proofreading mechanism or such, but only in passing and i have no idea whether it's true and if so what it's based on | 00:30 |
| kara[m] | you guys don't have graphical emojis right? | 00:30 |
| kara[m] | 🤌 | 00:30 |
| ryouma | box | 00:30 |
| LjL | kara[m], sadly we do, our fonts are like your fonts | 00:30 |
| LjL | well except for ryouma | 00:30 |
| yuriwho | also the most dangerous mutations typically happen in bats where the bat may be infected with hundreds of viruses and new genes can be swapped from one virus to another | 00:30 |
| ryouma | i could install them | 00:30 |
| Skunny | 🤤 | 00:31 |
| ryouma | ugh | 00:31 |
| yuriwho | LjL: the virus has a proofreading exonuclease that increases the fidelity of RNA polymerase by removing mutations | 00:31 |
| de-facto | afaik approximately every two weeks there appears a new mutation in SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree that is able to survive, so around 24 per year | 00:31 |
| kara[m] | <LjL "kara, sadly we do, our fonts are"> good, u saw my stereotypical italian hand gesture lol | 00:32 |
| LjL | i wouldn't call that good, but yes | 00:32 |
| yuriwho | afk dinner | 00:32 |
| kara[m] | <yuriwho "also the most dangerous mutation"> maybe this is why vampires are based on bats and not mosquitos | 00:32 |
| kara[m] | Skunny: thxs lol | 00:33 |
| LjL | ryouma, there is a way to scale CJK chars? | 00:35 |
| kara[m] | <de-facto "afaik approximately every two we"> but 1 vaccine to kill them all still right? | 00:35 |
| LjL | i always thought japanese is unreadable at the point size i use for latin | 00:35 |
| LjL | well, or hardly readable | 00:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +195947 cases (now 11.1 million), +1444 deaths (now 249928) since a day ago | 00:35 |
| ryouma | when i use proportional fonts, and i scale text, some cjk scale and some do not. all ascii scales. when i use monospace, everything scales i think. so whatever i use for proportional perhaps does not include some font for some chars. | 00:36 |
| LjL | kara[m], probably. it becomes less certain with things like the mink mutations where you have multiple mutations some of which may be "escaping" antibodies | 00:36 |
| LjL | ryouma, oh, i see. i was thinking more making kanji bigger than regular latin letters | 00:36 |
| ryouma | that could be useful, but i was just thinking make all text bigger | 00:37 |
| ryouma | i agree they are pretty small at ascii sizes | 00:37 |
| ryouma | but sometimes they are ok | 00:38 |
| LjL | depends on the kanji | 00:38 |
| LjL | some are just ridiculous, they are so dense it's basically a black box | 00:38 |
| ryouma | yeah idk if natives can distinguish that or not | 00:38 |
| de-facto | kara[m], well thats a very good question actually: the immune system produces antibodies that fit specific surface regions (epitopes) of the spike protein for example. now if a mutation occurs in exactly such a region of the RNA recipe those antibodies would not fit properly anymore hence such a mutation could "escape" immunity. that may have partly happened with the cluster 5 in mink farms in netherlands and denmark where the Y453F may | 00:40 |
| de-facto | partly evade some immunity in the lab at least | 00:40 |
| ryouma | i wonder if emacs can make cjk bigger than ascii. will try to find out. | 00:40 |
| de-facto | if that also is the case in human bodies (in vivo) is not clear yet | 00:40 |
| ryouma | why are we not talking t cells? is it he same answers? | 00:42 |
| LjL | ryouma, i think it's mainly because we have no clue how they contribute | 00:43 |
| de-facto | Dr Emma Hodcroft tweets about all the newest mutations on her account https://twitter.com/firefoxx66 | 00:43 |
| LjL | i think the first time i linked to her i found her statements perplexing | 00:44 |
| LjL | if i'm not getting confused with someone else | 00:44 |
| kara[m] | basically humans are playing with fire | 00:45 |
| LjL | hmm it was probably someone else | 00:47 |
| de-facto | normally a human immune system would build a whole spectrum of slightly various antibodies to fight a pathogen invader, some antibodies fit very well and may neutralize most of it, others may not fit so well or not at all, now if a random mutation occurs (or reinfects the carrier after recovers or vaccination) the one type of antibody that neutralized it very well at the first time may not fit but another one that did not fit well before | 00:49 |
| de-facto | may take its role and neutralize the new mutation because it fits this exact strain | 00:49 |
| de-facto | so its a bit like shooting with a shotgun (broad variety of antibodies) to make sure at least some of the antibodies will hit and neutralize | 00:49 |
| de-facto | thats also the reason there are several clones of monoclonal antibodies in such a treatment cocktail of monoclonal antibodies to catch escape mutations | 00:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Hampshire, US: +454 cases (now 13929), +3 deaths (now 498) since 4 hours ago — US: +196404 cases (now 11.1 million), +1454 deaths (now 249942) since 23 hours ago | 00:51 |
| de-facto | there also is another mutation | 00:55 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1 | 00:55 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: The circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike variant N439K maintains fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity | bioRxiv | 00:55 |
| de-facto | so with time the phylogenetic tree (the graph on nextstrain) is spreading more and more increasing variety of SARS-CoV-2 strains | 00:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Oregon orders two-week 'freeze' across state amid 'alarming spike' in Covid cases and hospitalizations → https://is.gd/dKZb6G | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +190815 cases (now 11.1 million), +1431 deaths (now 249944) since 23 hours ago | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +192857 cases (now 11.1 million), +1435 deaths (now 249948) since a day ago | 01:21 |
| Skunny | damn | 01:28 |
| Skunny | The result of your COVID-19 Nasal RT-PCR test that was administered on 11/11/2020 is Positive. | 01:28 |
| Skunny | this is crazy | 01:28 |
| Skunny | it's beeen 14 days | 01:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +4478 cases (now 436972), +50 deaths (now 8367) since 21 hours ago | 01:35 |
| de-facto | uuf good that you still isolated then | 01:36 |
| de-facto | how are you feeling? | 01:37 |
| Skunny | I been fine for days | 01:37 |
| Skunny | I don't think im contagious | 01:38 |
| Skunny | work still wants me back monday | 01:38 |
| de-facto | with a positive test result? thats crazy | 01:38 |
| Skunny | said the 10 days has passed according to CDC Im fine | 01:38 |
| Skunny | I setup a test for tomorrow | 01:38 |
| Skunny | My wifes going bananas lol sleeping alone | 01:38 |
| Skunny | ;-) | 01:39 |
| de-facto | the pcr test indeed does not determine if its infectious, it just shows that the virus RNA is present, but every such RNA once was a fully functional virus particle so... be careful and continue isolating | 01:39 |
| Skunny | for sho | 01:39 |
| de-facto | you did everything perfectly fine, and im glad to hear that you feel fine symptom wise | 01:40 |
| Skunny | I just deep cleaned too today lol | 01:40 |
| de-facto | if everyone was that responsible we would not have such a severe problem anymore probably | 01:40 |
| Skunny | yeah I'm super cautious | 01:41 |
| Skunny | but I wanna have sex LOL | 01:41 |
| de-facto | haha of course still be careful and isolate | 01:43 |
| de-facto | did they say anything about the result or was it just an electronic notice? | 01:44 |
| de-facto | where did they take the sample? | 01:45 |
| de-facto | the problem with those 10 days or 14 days or whatever duration is that those are average values, so the real individual cases have a distribution around those, like those normal gaussian probability distributions "bell curve" | 01:47 |
| de-facto | so even when most are in the median (where such curves have their maximum) some are distributed on each side | 01:47 |
| de-facto | so for some it takes longer for others shorter times than the median value in the middle | 01:48 |
| Skunny | it was nose swap | 01:48 |
| de-facto | so only the nose and not the pharyngeal region (down the throat)? no coughing or such? | 01:49 |
| Skunny | never cough | 01:49 |
| de-facto | is your taste already back? | 01:49 |
| Skunny | I say it's 45% | 01:49 |
| de-facto | or sense of smell? | 01:49 |
| Skunny | can taste and smell | 01:49 |
| Skunny | food is enjoyable | 01:50 |
| de-facto | at least that is already back then :)) | 01:50 |
| de-facto | was it completely gone? | 01:50 |
| de-facto | im curious, cant imagine how that feels | 01:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +191756 cases (now 11.1 million), +1428 deaths (now 249973) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4383 cases (now 287327), +56 deaths (now 10841) since 23 hours ago | 01:50 |
| Skunny | oh yeah, like alight switch...gone! | 01:50 |
| Skunny | I woke up in the moring and did the #2 and was like... hrm this shit should stink lol | 01:51 |
| Skunny | then I went to fridge to grab some yogurt and was like ... FUUUUCK | 01:51 |
| de-facto | whoot that must be really strange if it goes away like with a switch | 01:51 |
| Skunny | yeah it's scarey for sure | 01:51 |
| Skunny | not like a stuffy nose cold | 01:52 |
| Skunny | but like no stuffy no taste | 01:52 |
| de-facto | not a sign of it on the evening before | 01:52 |
| Skunny | maybe | 01:52 |
| Skunny | but was stuffy | 01:52 |
| Skunny | so I assume now that it's coming back the virus is not attacking me no more | 01:52 |
| Skunny | like my body is rebuilding | 01:53 |
| de-facto | yes probably makes sense | 01:53 |
| de-facto | i mean you obviously have capabilities to fight it | 01:54 |
| Skunny | one thing I am having trouble smelling is car exhaust | 01:54 |
| de-facto | interesting, so you dont smell that one? | 01:55 |
| Skunny | my son and I got take out today there was an old classic car and he said "God damn that car stinks" | 01:55 |
| de-facto | i think those nerve cells in the nose need time to regenerate | 01:57 |
| de-facto | or even regrow | 01:57 |
| de-facto | on the olfactory bulb inside the nose | 01:58 |
| de-facto | did they provide a Cycle Threshold (Ct) value for your PCR test? | 01:59 |
| de-facto | like how many amplification cycles were required for the positive result to be detected? | 02:00 |
| de-facto | anyhow still be careful and isolate from other people until result is negative | 02:01 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Short term, high-dose vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 disease: a randomised, placebo-controlled, study (SHADE study) (81 votes) | https://pmj.bmj.com/content/early/2020/11/12/postgradmedj-2020-139065.full | https://redd.it/jtllxq | 02:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5054 cases (now 287998), +61 deaths (now 10846) since 23 hours ago — US: +191815 cases (now 11.1 million) since a day ago | 02:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +192900 cases (now 11.1 million), +1421 deaths (now 249974) since a day ago | 02:21 |
| Skunny | de-facto not really | 02:27 |
| Skunny | just says positive | 02:27 |
| Skunny | Ill link you to it | 02:27 |
| Skunny | I was trying to pm you | 02:28 |
| Skunny | but cannot due some services or something | 02:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +193193 cases (now 11.1 million) since a day ago | 02:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: ‘No rhyme or reason’ why Mississippi governor reversed statewide mask mandate, says Jackson mayor: Jackson, Mississippi does not have one ICU bed left. The city's mayor updates on the severity of coronavirus in his community and what he thinks needs to be done. → https://is.gd/m5zq03 | 02:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +193230 cases (now 11.1 million), +1417 deaths (now 249975) since a day ago | 02:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +3 cases (now 1998) since a day ago | 03:05 |
| LjL | https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/jte3cu/who_warns_life_will_not_return_to_normal_until/gc602nx/ | 03:21 |
| LjL | look at the votes there various respective comments have also | 03:21 |
| LjL | when even redditors are sick and tired of "restrictions", i think restrictions won't last for much longer intact... | 03:22 |
| LjL | de-facto, Skunny: for some people smell and taste only come back partially (at least for several months, this experiment is clearly still in progress...). but chances are in the course of a few days it'll mostly come back. but indeed it's described as weird: being able to smell some things but not others, or even certain things having completely the "wrong" smell | 03:26 |
| de-facto | afaik it comes back for the majority though | 03:26 |
| de-facto | maybe some type of cells is affected more than the other creating some kind of imbalance for sensing specific categories of smells? | 03:27 |
| LjL | who knows, it's probably neurological | 03:29 |
| LjL | does it really help though when the WHO keeps insisting life won't go back to normal, before it was until 2022, now it's until 2022 "at the earliest"... i mean, it's true, but does it help to state it upfront? i don't want them to lie either (they already did that with the masks, that didn't go well) but instead of highlighting various important medical facts do they really need to hammer on the pessimism string | 03:31 |
| de-facto | how could they know? | 03:32 |
| de-facto | it depends on so many things, e.g. if vaccinations are playing out etc | 03:32 |
| de-facto | its like with weather forecast, quite accurate in short term but error bars explode for long periods | 03:33 |
| LjL | well, vaccines realistically won't be enough to cover the entire population before 2022 | 03:33 |
| LjL | i guess what the tired redditors don't get is that it will be downhill from when the vaccines start being around | 03:34 |
| de-facto | i mean its probably not an error to expect to have to live with it for a while, if things get resolved earlier, well prefect, if not we wont be too surprised | 03:34 |
| LjL | de-facto, but if you go by the responses and votes on that reddit thread, when you face people with "you'll have to expect to live with it for a while, until 2022 or so at least" they will be like "what? i can't make it like this until 2022, fuck that bullshit, i'll be broke and crazy by then" | 03:35 |
| de-facto | also i wonder if its not possible to cover all of worlds population with vaccinations in a short period of time (on the scale of mutations evading the new immunologic pressure by all those immune people around) if we need many vaccinations until everyone got one and the pathogen itself it wrestled down | 03:35 |
| LjL | and honestly i can kind of share their feeling, i'm not that emotionally strong, and i'm lucky enough to be financially safe somewhat, many people have that going against them too | 03:35 |
| LjL | de-facto, i don't know if it's possible (seems like a really gargantuan effort to me) but it's not what they are going for. they have already secured early dose for healthcare workers and others | 03:36 |
| LjL | and even more realistically, some countries will not get it for a while, during the time the more affluent countries can pay more for their doses | 03:37 |
| LjL | i think this is extremely unlikely not to happen | 03:37 |
| de-facto | i mean right now there is not much immunologic pressure because there is not much immunity, so the pathogen more or less can stay in its niche, but what if there is considerable immunologic pressure that promotes escape mutations? i think that will influence mutation rates because of different natural selection | 03:37 |
| LjL | i think this is the sort of thing we have to live day by day and try not to think of how long the realistic timeframe is. at least for many people, including me, i freak out a little if i think how long it's going to be until 2022, and even then it's just "at the earliest" | 03:38 |
| LjL | de-facto, well that's why yuriwho thinks this will stay around forever uh? | 03:38 |
| de-facto | its not going to be like it is right now though | 03:38 |
| rpifan | i think yea | 03:40 |
| rpifan | we'll be with this until 2022 | 03:40 |
| rpifan | ut things will never be the same | 03:40 |
| rpifan | and thats good | 03:40 |
| de-facto | well fair point, obviously biosecurity requirements were ignored for too long | 03:42 |
| de-facto | thankfully SARS-CoV-2 is not as fatal as Nipah or such | 03:43 |
| LjL | %title https://inews.co.uk/news/health/disability-rights-covid-19-pandemic-shortage-scope-757277 | 03:43 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From inews.co.uk: Disabled man asked to give feeding tubes to the NHS for Covid-19 patients - but he can't survive without them | 03:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +1673 cases (now 438494), +16 deaths (now 8380) since 8 hours ago — Canada: +2951 cases (now 288227) since 8 hours ago — Belize: +119 cases (now 4715), +10 deaths (now 85) since a day ago | 04:06 |
| ryouma | those who have been bedridden (and in many cases persecuted for being sick) since e.g. 1990 or 1950 are trying really hard to sympathize with those who are having trouble with obeying lockdown orders that are there to keep virus under control | 04:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry to be the partypooper, but a) seems we got no sterile immunity from the known and tested vaccines so far, and for sure we won't extinguish that virus. It will become endemic | 04:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and b) for sure... | 04:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and a bright c) the vaccine and improved treatments will mitigate the situaten earlier than 2022 | 04:26 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, wait where do you get the fact that we get no sterile immunity? i know it's widely theorized, because of upper respiratory tract etc, but do we have evidence? | 04:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm pretty sure I heard about it in some reports of the BNT162B2(?), but can't recally exactly where and when | 04:34 |
| de-facto | hmm i did not hear of any vaccination trial that did test the upper respiratory tract of their participants every few days for pathogen concentration, but maybe i just did not find it? | 04:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the question is if the initial replication until immune response kicks in will actually suffice to make a person contagious | 04:37 |
| de-facto | yep exactly | 04:38 |
| de-facto | i would guess that nasal spray vaccination would be required for those instead of injection into the muscle | 04:39 |
| LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Vaccine_candidates might actually be better than covidvax, far as i can tell | 04:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | obviously that's a "fuzzy logic" question | 04:39 |
| de-facto | oh btw just discovered RKI did made another briefing since long time (in German language) streamed on 12th of Nov | 04:40 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJv5QwPeYMA | 04:40 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: PK: Robert Koch-Institut zur aktuellen Corona-Lage in Deutschland - YouTube | 04:40 |
| de-facto | First time they enter the room in masks | 04:41 |
| de-facto | yeah wikipedia got really good and current infos on topics of public interest | 04:42 |
| de-facto | there they say it too, its unclear if the raise in incidence slowed down due to incidence or overwhelming of lab capacity | 04:46 |
| de-facto | exactly my suspicion the whole time | 04:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I can't help but gut feeling err my neuronal wetware network pattern matcher says it's _not_ a saturation effect as that must look different than what we see | 04:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there might be a bit of artifact in the amount of the trend we see, but definitely not all | 04:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +4619 cases (now 525012), +215 deaths (now 14106) since a day ago | 04:50 |
| de-facto | i think its both | 04:51 |
| de-facto | 1) saturation in tracing and testing | 04:51 |
| de-facto | 2) impact from non-pharmaceutical containment | 04:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | strong indicator: a saturated system filters out stuff like that annoying 7 day repeating artifact. We don't see any attenuation in the amplitude of this signal | 04:51 |
| de-facto | why would it do that? people dont work at weekends even when system saturates | 04:52 |
| de-facto | it just continues to behave as it did before too | 04:52 |
| yuriwho | this virus is about to go exponential in much of the western world in the northern hemisphere..... with cooler temps (virus lives longer), less sunlight (less direct UV sterilization, less natural vit D from sunlight) lower humidity (more airborn spread due to shrinking dropets) and people huddled indoors...... mark my words | 04:52 |
| de-facto | is about to go? its exponential for months in Europe already | 04:53 |
| ryouma | quite concerned. also holidays. | 04:53 |
| de-facto | just look about for how long most of the countries got R>1 | 04:53 |
| ryouma | and exponential in us | 04:53 |
| de-facto | http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 04:53 |
| ryouma | yuriwho: you think vit d is not merely correlative, then? good news. | 04:54 |
| de-facto | i am taking 2000 I.E. since months | 04:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and ASS | 04:54 |
| yuriwho | I'm saying it will get worse over the next 2-3 months | 04:54 |
| de-facto | yeah unfortunately that is to be expected indeed :( | 04:54 |
| ryouma | ass? | 04:54 |
| de-facto | Aspirin | 04:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: watch out, this is too much. May cause severe side effects, blood hypercalcification (spelling?) et al | 04:55 |
| de-facto | i take 100mg too | 04:55 |
| ryouma | that's supposed to help? | 04:55 |
| ryouma | i am taking 5kiu vit d. i do not go outdoors. | 04:55 |
| yuriwho | I take 1000 i.u/day of vit D | 04:55 |
| ryouma | plus k2 for severe teeth issues and dry a 10kiu | 04:55 |
| yuriwho | ryouma: I assume you have consulted with your Doctor on this? | 04:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 1000 units is considered abs max without close plasma concentration monitoring | 04:56 |
| ryouma | hmm i thought that was supposed to be 4k | 04:57 |
| ryouma | yuriwho: no, i should, and will make a note, but ther eare issues with talking with my doctor. i have in the past (6y ago or so) taken such amounts and it did not raise my levels by much. was even told to increase d3 at that time. | 04:58 |
| yuriwho | I personally think 2K i.u/day is safe without medical advice depending on your personal lvl's | 04:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | actually my pills say 500IU (half pill) per day "normal", 1000IU (full pill) with monitoring only | 04:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | colecalciferol | 04:59 |
| yuriwho | yea, bone related issues are the major side effect and that also relates to your calcium and phospate lvl's | 05:00 |
| ryouma | what would it do to your bones? i have severe bone loss according to dentist. | 05:01 |
| ryouma | (exact quote) | 05:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | anyway it builds up literally over months of constant dosage | 05:01 |
| de-facto | %title https://pmj.bmj.com/content/early/2020/11/12/postgradmedj-2020-139065.full | 05:02 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From pmj.bmj.com: Short term, high-dose vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 disease: a randomised, placebo-controlled, study (SHADE study) | Postgraduate Medical Journal | 05:02 |
| yuriwho | ryouma: speak to your doc regarding bone health and get tested for for your vitamin lvl's | 05:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I think it's doing harm to veins, kidneys... | 05:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>Short term, high-dose<< empgassis on every single word | 05:04 |
| yuriwho | many vitamins can be toxic at high lvl's with Vit C being the exception | 05:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | emphasis* | 05:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +2957 cases (now 288233) since 9 hours ago | 05:06 |
| ryouma | i am really reluctant to allow a phlebotomist in here as i don't know if their precautions are sufficient | 05:10 |
| ryouma | so i ahve not gotten any blood tests since before the pandemic | 05:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | anyway, re "extinguish the virus". Won't happen, but we will get much much better at controlling it, by vaccination, by sewage tests with increasing resolution of granularity from city-wide possibly down to the block, with quick tests, smarter management (e.g.by finally getting *working* apps) etc. I'd bet my ass on we won't see any national lockdowns after april 2021 in Germany and prolly europe | 05:14 |
| de-facto | the only thing that really matters is if people finally understand it and change their behavior | 05:15 |
| ryouma | that is an unknown | 05:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | oh, and while we're at betting: I put a 2 cent on today (saturday) RKI 25300 new cases being the highest number in whole 2020. I'm eagerly waiting for update of dashboard to at least check the number for now | 05:17 |
| robs_second_choi | n | 05:17 |
| de-facto | we are MUCH too slow and we just dont take it serious enough, the virus is always two steps ahead | 05:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes at both | 05:18 |
| de-facto | its because there are always compromises made, like keeping the kids happy in school etc | 05:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | DUH! + 22,461 | 05:20 |
| de-facto | its even known how to beat it, many countries have demonstrated it: aggressive and strict containment without any compromises or exceptions | 05:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 840 high | 05:20 |
| de-facto | %cases Germany | 05:21 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: In Germany, there have been 772822 confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 12503 deaths (1.6% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 25.0 million tests were performed (3.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 05:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | wait, nope, 2900 high :-O | 05:21 |
| de-facto | RKI Germany Infections: +22461 (773556 total), Fatalities +178 (12378 total) | 05:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I rarely ever was so happy to have missguessed that much | 05:23 |
| de-facto | but wait does that mean RKI is as fast as JHU? | 05:23 |
| de-facto | what exactly did they update today? | 05:24 |
| de-facto | or was that yesterday? | 05:24 |
| de-facto | they displaced a warning that services would be down due to maintenance | 05:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: South Korea COVID cases above 200, as face mask fines imposed → https://is.gd/gq3MdZ | 05:28 |
| de-facto | JHU Germany Infections 785093, Fatalities 12404, hence JHU - RKI: Infections +11537, Fatalities +26 | 05:30 |
| de-facto | so both differences positive hence JHU is still ahead | 05:31 |
| de-facto | RKI said that they suspect the dark number of incidence is decoupling since a few weeks already from detected cases back in the days it was the 4-5-fold of detected cases, today probably quite a lot more | 05:37 |
| de-facto | and hospitalizations are two weeks behind | 05:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | we'll see. graybeard engineer, never seen a system getting saturated without quite noticeable increase in signal distortion, often even in the form of clipping | 05:41 |
| de-facto | well if you associate such effects with it then dont call it saturation | 05:42 |
| de-facto | maybe decoupling of testing from real incidence is a better description? | 05:42 |
| de-facto | it just continues to look as it did before, but the part of real cases that are reflected by it declines in the background | 05:43 |
| de-facto | they simple dont get tested at all | 05:43 |
| de-facto | no tracing, no testing, no reporting => dark number raises | 05:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | we'll see. when numbers go _down_ I want to hear the next explanation :-) | 05:45 |
| de-facto | and even RKI said themselves answering the question if they expect their adjusted targeting to reflect in case numbers, that they desire to see an effect of that in testing numbers since they hope that their advise is followed by the medical personal | 05:46 |
| de-facto | i hope daily new hospitalizations go *down*, thats a hard indicator that we are on track | 05:47 |
| de-facto | but thats two weeks behind so actually too late for real steering | 05:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | we gotta wait another 2 or 3 weeks for first signs in hospitalizations | 05:49 |
| de-facto | yes unfortunately | 05:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I know it's supposed to be shorter but I don't buy that | 05:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorta depressing: numbers of Berchtesgaden, which are 2 weeks ahead and had a _real_ lockdown | 05:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the impact was not what I had hoped for | 05:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it worked but just as slow and little as we had hoped for the germany-wide lockdown-lite to do | 05:53 |
| de-facto | hey now we have lockdown light, so we still have lockdown medium, and lockdown for motivated until we may finally realize we have to go for the real thing and have something that might actually lock the contagion down by enforcing a real reduction in contact rates | 05:55 |
| de-facto | sorry for the slightly sarcastic tone, i really get mad at how not serious its taken here right now | 05:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm pretty sure we _will_ see a reduction, we already are R_eff<1 (unless you prove me wrong and you right with that saturation). Alas it will be way too sloooow compared to what we'd need | 05:57 |
| de-facto | numbers are exploding exponentially and we are discussing about if containment measures are strictly nessecary (e.g. closing schools, completely ban traveling or visiting, allowing for any type of gathering etc) | 05:57 |
| de-facto | its just stupid, im sorry. | 05:58 |
| de-facto | keep in mind that nothing about all this is static | 05:58 |
| de-facto | for example chances for transmission will increase even more in the winter | 05:58 |
| de-facto | resouces will be overwhelmed even more and then our hospitals will already be full | 05:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's worse: schools supposed to do "hybrid" 50/50 presence/remote according to RKI and they can't even do THAT! idiots | 05:59 |
| de-facto | with high incidence onslaught | 05:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yep | 06:00 |
| de-facto | mark my words: every compromise works in favor of the viral reproduction, hence as long as we are making compromises the virus will reproduce. If we want that, fine. If we dont want that, we have to get rid of compromises. | 06:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well... Spahn: >>this is EXPONENTIAL! so when after 10 days ICU is half filled, then after another 10 days it's 100% filled. That's what exponential means<< NO SUCKER, THAT's LINEAR! | 06:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so no surprise they can't mange it | 06:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | clueless fools | 06:02 |
| de-facto | well politicians cant be experts for everything, but they can *hire* experts on everything and they should do that | 06:04 |
| de-facto | for some economic projects they always do that outsourcing, why not for such things too? | 06:04 |
| de-facto | well actually they do but cite their experts wrong | 06:05 |
| de-facto | otherwise they would not know about 10 days | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +2965 cases (now 288241) since 10 hours ago | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Elon Musk said he tested positive and negative for Covid-19—here's what you need to know about the different tests → https://is.gd/rcXzdg | 06:05 |
| de-facto | the problem is: politicians are the ones making compromises hence promote viral reproduction | 06:05 |
| de-facto | but the virus has no concept such as compromise or such, it just takes every opportunity and resource to reproduce | 06:06 |
| de-facto | thats why it has to be contained with the most aggressive measures possible, but people dont understand that | 06:07 |
| de-facto | so here we are. | 06:07 |
| de-facto | we need to reduce contacts DRASTICALLY. like at least 75% less contacts | 06:13 |
| de-facto | but humans want to meet their friends, have fun together and be entertained. | 06:13 |
| de-facto | as long as such things have higher priorities (hence also the viral reproduction) than containment by contact reduction it will more or less continue like it does right now | 06:14 |
| de-facto | for example: why is traveling allowed at all? | 06:15 |
| de-facto | its not necessary for anything useful. | 06:15 |
| de-facto | or partying? or events? or gatherings of any kind? | 06:16 |
| de-facto | its not necessary. | 06:17 |
| de-facto | all indications that we dont take it serious, we make stupid compromises and the virus takes every opportunity to reproduce. of course it does, what else to expect from it? | 06:17 |
| de-facto | that list could go on forever btw and thats a statement on its own already. | 06:19 |
| de-facto | to be honest its quite embarrassing how stupid most of the western world and the people in it behave | 06:20 |
| de-facto | there are still people believing its all a conspiracy and stuff like that and go demonstrate against containment | 06:22 |
| de-facto | how astronomically stupid is that? | 06:22 |
| de-facto | then they come with their so called experts like it was a religion and the only thing that matters is believe in them. Prof XYZ is a known expert for whatever, well i dont care if he is talking nonsense | 06:26 |
| de-facto | they completely got rid of fundamental human capabilities such as using their own mental capacity and rather rely on outsourcing that to their conspiracy theorists, becomes quite obvious when they are being asked a question that requires transfer of knowledge beyond repetition of their mantras, then they get big eyes and dont know that to say | 06:28 |
| de-facto | ah whatever, good night :((( | 06:28 |
| de-facto | (sorry for the rant, im frustrated) | 06:29 |
| ryouma | you will get no arguments here | 06:34 |
| ryouma | just nitpicks. scientists need to travel sometimes. :) | 06:35 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Chemists discover the structure of a key coronavirus protein - The protein, which acts as an ion channel, could be a target for new drugs against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. (88 votes) | https://news.mit.edu/2020/chemists-discover-structure-key-coronavirus-protein-1112 | https://redd.it/jtuns5 | 06:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia to spend $500 million on coronavirus vaccines for Southeast Asian and Pacific neighbours → https://is.gd/F6neki | 06:42 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID mink analysis shows mutations are not dangerous — yet (81 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03218-z | https://redd.it/jtp2dl | 06:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Before Biden inauguration, 70,000 more could die from COVID-19 in the U.S → https://is.gd/ZOWXxj | 07:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ukraine: +12053 cases (now 527808), +182 deaths (now 9604) since a day ago — Germany: +19132 cases (now 785093) since 11 hours ago — Northwest Territories, Canada: +4 cases (now 15) since 2 days ago — Northern Territory, Australia: +4 cases (now 46) since 2 days ago | 07:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: ‘Matrix 4’ cast, crew host party disguised as film shoot to bypass Covid rules in Germany: Report → https://is.gd/xVPTKe | 07:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Veneto, Italy: +7169 cases (now 94506) since 14 hours ago — Lazio, Italy: +5611 cases (now 78665) since 14 hours ago — Piedmont, Italy: +5258 cases (now 117312), +61 deaths (now 4964) since 11 hours ago — Emilia-Romagna, Italy: +4785 cases (now 83068) since 14 hours ago | 07:20 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: One in every 378 people in the U.S. tested positive for COVID-19 over the past week. (10234 votes) | https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/13/934566781/the-pandemic-this-week-8-things-to-know-about-the-surge | https://redd.it/jtrzmb | 07:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More than 1 in 5,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with severe coronavirus → https://is.gd/gMZN4R | 07:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia: +3504 cases (now 76658), +33 deaths (now 669) since 12 hours ago — Antigua and Barb.: +1 deaths (now 4) since 12 hours ago | 08:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Italy extends partial lockdown as Naples hospitals struggle → https://is.gd/HkcAga | 08:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +22702 cases (now 1.9 million), +391 deaths (now 32834) since 13 hours ago | 09:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Measles cases hit 20-year high as Covid disrupts vaccinations → https://is.gd/o2Rl0t | 10:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Super-rich buying up 'Downton Abbey estates' to escape pandemic → https://is.gd/4DuNxu | 11:05 |
| scorpion2185[m] | <LjL "scorpion2185, who is the "world "> and all the others doctors? I also heard abotu plasma cures. Do you have the source of these reliable papers? | 11:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus: 184,000 new US cases shatters record set day before → https://is.gd/M9Q1GF | 11:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +1849 cases (now 73429), +19 deaths (now 946) since 15 hours ago | 11:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +48 deaths (now 3342) since 17 hours ago | 13:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: We’ll need more than one vaccine to beat the pandemic: All Covid vaccine candidates work in different ways; none will be perfect for all. → https://is.gd/ZWJy3L | 13:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +75 deaths (now 12506) since 17 hours ago | 13:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +5637 cases (now 442458), +79 deaths (now 8443) since 18 hours ago | 14:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: It’s Time to Hunker Down: The end may be near for the pestilence that has haunted the world this year. Good news is arriving on almost every front: treatments, vaccines, and our understanding of this coronavirus. → https://is.gd/NOLJLQ | 14:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 14 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/e6czMv | 15:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +1248 cases (now 112870), +6 deaths (now 1039) since 19 hours ago — US: +147535 cases (now 11.1 million), +1166 deaths (now 250014) since 19 hours ago — Germany: +76 deaths (now 12507) since 19 hours ago | 15:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Next two weeks 'crucial' for ending lockdown: People must not become complacent due to a potential vaccine, a government scientist says. → https://is.gd/7w2Q2Y | 15:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +149913 cases (now 11.1 million), +1182 deaths (now 250030) since 19 hours ago | 15:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Serbia: +3822 cases (now 81086), +17 deaths (now 989) since 19 hours ago | 15:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +150061 cases (now 11.1 million), +1183 deaths (now 250031) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +92 deaths (now 12523) since 20 hours ago | 16:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 13 novembre 2020: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. (20A06292) → https://is.gd/5lA1vs | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Maryland, US: +2321 cases (now 164090), +20 deaths (now 4293) since 20 hours ago — West Virginia, US: +1153 cases (now 32792), +9 deaths (now 574) since 20 hours ago — US: +153535 cases (now 11.1 million), +1212 deaths (now 250060) since 20 hours ago | 16:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +155576 cases (now 11.1 million), +1229 deaths (now 250077) since 20 hours ago | 16:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | moin | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +156546 cases (now 11.1 million), +1236 deaths (now 250084) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +113 deaths (now 12544) since 20 hours ago | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Moldova: +1411 cases (now 88772), +19 deaths (now 2006) since 21 hours ago — Italy: +37249 cases (now 1.1 million), +544 deaths (now 44683) since 21 hours ago — US: +158016 cases (now 11.1 million), +1257 deaths (now 250105) since 21 hours ago | 17:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +3116 cases (now 411055), +92 deaths (now 11418) since 21 hours ago — Arizona, US: +3476 cases (now 273053), +43 deaths (now 6300) since 21 hours ago — US: +161492 cases (now 11.1 million), +1300 deaths (now 250148) since 21 hours ago | 17:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: As you wish: Users have requested an FAQ. What questions would you like to see included? → https://is.gd/XkgGPC | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +26860 cases (now 1.3 million), +462 deaths (now 51766) since 21 hours ago — US: +165888 cases (now 11.1 million), +1347 deaths (now 250195) since 21 hours ago | 17:35 |
| LjL | moron https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/jte3cu/who_warns_life_will_not_return_to_normal_until/gc99ivt/?context=3 | 17:40 |
| euod[m] | LjL: glad to see you're still around. hope you're doing well. | 17:40 |
| LjL | thanks, i'm okay, for a definition of okay that revolves around feeling pretty bleh all around, yet at least not having COVID | 17:41 |
| euod[m] | I'm glad, unfortunately we're all sort of in the same boat here. | 17:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | full lockdown in Austria - seems they are always 4 weeks ahead of Germany | 17:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +167801 cases (now 11.1 million), +1356 deaths (now 250204) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +3698 cases (now 288974), +38 deaths (now 10854) since 21 hours ago — Germany: +127 deaths (now 12558) since 21 hours ago | 17:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also they already question the >>schools are no hotspots<< mantra | 17:50 |
| euod[m] | that's a new all time high for the US | 17:50 |
| LjL | euod[m], don't take it too uncritically, i'm experimenting with a 24h window in the bot, which means at minimum that its numbers will not match official daily numbers, because like California updates its number *many* times a day, and every time, the bot will output a new US-wide number which considers the past 24 hours | 17:59 |
| LjL | earlier the bot would just post updates like "+n since 2 hours ago" i.e. since whenever it was updated last, but people complained that didn't mean much to them | 17:59 |
| euod[m] | offloops daily is also a ATH so I didn't worry about that. | 18:00 |
| Arsanerit | Count from midnight to midnight? Local time or UTC? | 18:01 |
| euod[m] | their daily number is 184514. | 18:01 |
| scorpion2185[m] | https://gbdeclaration.org/ | 18:01 |
| LjL | The Great Barrington Declaration was authored by Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University.[1] It was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian think tank that is part of a Koch-funded network of organizations associated with climate change denial.[14][15] | 18:05 |
| LjL | and with that, scorpion2185[m], your warnings have run out | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for North Dakota, US: +2270 cases (now 62872), +19 deaths (now 726) since 21 hours ago — US: +170611 cases (now 11.1 million), +1392 deaths (now 250240) since 22 hours ago — Wyoming, US: +540 cases (now 21881), +17 deaths (now 144) since 18 hours ago | 18:05 |
| LjL | you haven't even engaged in any discussion. you just spit out links to propaganda material | 18:06 |
| LjL | no i have no willingness to PM right now. i will remove the mute in a day or so and you can try engaging with the channel in a different way | 18:07 |
| euod[m] | at some point I get to make the rather nasty decision of, is going to my scheduled medical care covid-19 risky enough to refuse it? | 18:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Minnesota, US: +8689 cases (now 216028), +35 deaths (now 2930) since 22 hours ago — Indiana, US: +8322 cases (now 244887), +25 deaths (now 4888) since 21 hours ago — US: +194354 cases (now 11.1 million), +1511 deaths (now 250359) since 22 hours ago | 18:21 |
| euod[m] | the US is deeply, deeply in trouble. if you project the graphs following the trend to any degree a month away is dire. | 18:23 |
| LjL | euod[m], we're already pondering that wrt the flu shot | 18:23 |
| euod[m] | yeah, I would have to be entering a hospital. | 18:24 |
| Arsanerit | My employer offered to vaccinate against flu all employees who want to in the workplace, but the vaccins didn't arrive. | 18:28 |
| LjL | what makes me made is we were all recommended to get a flu shot earlier than usual, in october | 18:29 |
| LjL | when in reality we won't even have vaccines for november | 18:29 |
| LjL | and the usual way to get a vaccine (from your GP) has collapsed | 18:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | another fsckup by politicians | 18:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +197435 cases (now 11.1 million), +1535 deaths (now 250383) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +5077 cases (now 290353), +57 deaths (now 10873) since 22 hours ago | 18:36 |
| euod[m] | huh, musk probably has covid19 | 18:40 |
| euod[m] | > During their conversation for an episode published Monday, Swisher asked the Tesla CEO whether he or his family would get a COVID-19 vaccine once one became available, to which Musk said he wouldn't because he was "not at risk for COVID, nor are my kids." | 18:40 |
| euod[m] | > There is no evidence Musk or his family are any less susceptible to the highly contagious virus that has killed more than 200,000 Americans of all ages. | 18:40 |
| euod[m] | no shit. turns out money doesn't mean you don't have ACE receptors. | 18:40 |
| LjL | ridiculous! i just heard from TV that Ireland's contact tracing app had a "glitch" where 700 students and 30 teachers were told to quarantine. but it wasn't a "glitch", it worked as intended, except it was later deemed excessive. so now "one option" will be instructing people to "put their app on pause when they are wearing a surgical masks". and then we're here trying to clarify that masks aren't magical! | 18:42 |
| LjL | euod[m], iirc Musk took a rapid antigen test repeatedly and was found twice positive, and twice negative | 18:43 |
| LjL | so he's trying to discredit the whole thing... except uh, we *know* that antigen tests aren't as accurate as PCR | 18:44 |
| LjL | it's not a discovery. he should stick to cars and rockets imo | 18:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +201979 cases (now 11.1 million), +1582 deaths (now 250430) since 22 hours ago | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | Why would it be excessive if 700 students and 30 teachers quarantine? | 18:51 |
| LjL | i don't know | 18:53 |
| LjL | i don't think there should be university students attending classes in presence to begin with | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | not if it's just lectures in any case | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | labs in small groups with masks and distancing, maybe, if they don't live in a hotspot | 18:55 |
| Arsanerit | And I find language classes in particular highly limiting online, when learning a language it's hard enough as it is, it's even harder with a poor connection. | 18:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Turkey's COVID-19 deaths returns to April levels: Turkish health ministry statistics show 93 people died in one day of COVID-19 amid a surge in infections, bringing the daily death toll to numbers last seen in April. → https://is.gd/f7SaUO | 18:56 |
| rpifan | well im staying german online now | 18:57 |
| rpifan | since i ogt in a fight with my physical teacher | 18:57 |
| rpifan | and they didnt have any other spaces | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | My wife tried to continue her learning of German online, but found the quality of the online course so bad that she quit. | 18:57 |
| rpifan | well i alreayd paid for it | 18:58 |
| rpifan | and yea honestly its not a very good course | 18:58 |
| rpifan | buttt | 18:58 |
| rpifan | the issue is not so much the course but the students, i thnk the teacher is dcent | 18:58 |
| rpifan | but the students refuse to participate | 18:58 |
| rpifan | and i dont wanna speak all the time, i try to measure myself so an arab dude takes up 80 percent of the time | 18:58 |
| rpifan | as you can see i can easily take up 110 percent of class time | 18:59 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: I don't think the concept of "small groups if they're wearing masks" is acceptable at all. wearing a mask protects you somewhat in the cases of incidental contact. if you're spending more than a couple of minutes around someone who is covid positive it's not going to help you. | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: With distancing, in a well-ventilated room if not outside? | 19:01 |
| euod[m] | unless you're wearing like, a full face p95/p100 respirator. | 19:01 |
| euod[m] | absolutely. there's no such thing as a room well ventilated enough for it to be a safe thing to be doing, and it certainly doesn't justify the end goal of learning. | 19:02 |
| euod[m] | coming into winter in the northern hemisphere especially, well ventilated spaces are going to be harder to come by, and outdoors is impossible in many places. | 19:02 |
| Arsanerit | The balance is risk vs. education. | 19:02 |
| euod[m] | yeah? fuck your education, basically. it's not worth it. | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | That is one point of view. | 19:03 |
| rpifan | where are you ppl saying coming into winter | 19:03 |
| LjL | the balance is risk vs degree of education. it's not like you can't have *any* education | 19:03 |
| rpifan | we've had winter in berlin | 19:03 |
| rpifan | since september | 19:03 |
| rpifan | its been cold as shit | 19:03 |
| rpifan | and grey | 19:03 |
| rpifan | and awful | 19:03 |
| euod[m] | ok, in north america. | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | Indeed, risk vs. degree of education. | 19:03 |
| LjL | in my shitty university in Italy we basically never had labs in the first place | 19:03 |
| euod[m] | oh come on berlin is pretty in the winter. | 19:03 |
| rpifan | pretty shit | 19:03 |
| rpifan | its actually always shit | 19:03 |
| rpifan | in the usmmer is too cold | 19:03 |
| rpifan | in the winter its too cold | 19:03 |
| rpifan | in the summer there are almost 20 hours of daytime | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | Berlin reached over 35°C two summers in a row. | 19:04 |
| rpifan | and in the winter less then 5 | 19:04 |
| rpifan | one or two days | 19:04 |
| rpifan | thats hardly summer | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | Weeks. | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | They were still having heatwaves in October. | 19:04 |
| rpifan | no | 19:04 |
| rpifan | thats not true | 19:04 |
| rpifan | ive been here for 2 years now | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | They still haven't recovered from the drought in 2018. | 19:04 |
| rpifan | it rains non stop | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | I was in Brandenburg in October 2018 and the grass was still yellow from the summer. | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | Berlin is really dry. | 19:04 |
| euod[m] | I was in berlin 2 years ago towards the end of summer, it was glorious. got to weird out our german hosts to not end by setting up a satellite dish in that square where they burned all the books. | 19:04 |
| rpifan | yea | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | Certainly Berlin is drier than anywhere I've ever lived. | 19:05 |
| rpifan | thats because 2 year sago | 19:05 |
| rpifan | was the best summer theyve ever had here | 19:05 |
| rpifan | everyone always says 2 summers ago was perfect | 19:05 |
| euod[m] | Bebelplatz. | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | I've been there several times in 2019 and 2020. | 19:05 |
| rpifan | i was here in october of 2018 and it was still nice | 19:05 |
| rpifan | this winter has been milder then last | 19:05 |
| rpifan | but still shitty | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: 'Don't give up': German hospital in for virus long haul: No matter if a viable vaccine is coming on the market soon or not, Germany's Aachen hospital already knows there will still be a marathon to run when it comes to treating patients worst hit by the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/stEsyi | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | When was the last time Berlin had a normal winter? 2010? | 19:05 |
| rpifan | idk | 19:05 |
| rpifan | ive only been here 2 years | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | Come back when the Spree freezes solid. | 19:06 |
| euod[m] | eh, you're just being too german, Berlin is beautiful :) | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nevada, US: +2269 cases (now 119006), +15 deaths (now 1908) since 23 hours ago — US: +204248 cases (now 11.1 million), +1597 deaths (now 250445) since 23 hours ago | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | I don't know what your reference is, but Berlin is a warm and dry city. | 19:06 |
| rpifan | it really not | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | rpifan: Where did you grow up? | 19:06 |
| euod[m] | you'd have to have grown up in like, spain or something for berlin to be unacceptably gray. | 19:07 |
| rpifan | i grew up in nyc | 19:07 |
| euod[m] | my only complaint was that I couldn't pronounce a single one of the street names. | 19:07 |
| rpifan | but | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | tbf quite a few Berliners were born in the Mediterranean or Middle East. | 19:07 |
| rpifan | i spent most of life in subtropical places | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | NYC winters are much colder than Berlin winters. | 19:07 |
| rpifan | those are the non german berliners | 19:07 |
| rpifan | yes | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | And much snowier in particular. | 19:08 |
| rpifan | but the summer are much warmer | 19:08 |
| rpifan | muccch warmer | 19:08 |
| rpifan | summer is so much nicer | 19:08 |
| rpifan | berlin has one season Fall | 19:08 |
| rpifan | thats it | 19:08 |
| rpifan | the whole year round | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | At least Berliners don't have A/Cs that they put 15°C colder than the outdoor temperature, like Americans do. | 19:08 |
| euod[m] | where are you? at the bar on stallschreiberstraße. which is just as impossible to pronounce as every single road in Berlin :P | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | What's wrong with pronouncing Stallschreiberstraße? | 19:09 |
| euod[m] | if you're not comfortable with germanic languages they all sound like tongue twisters | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | It's pretty much pronounced the way it's written, unlike, say Gloucester, or Loughborough. | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | IMHO no English have the right to complain about pronunciation of German placenames ;) | 19:10 |
| euod[m] | mostly I kept getting given verbal directions and wondering how the heck you're supposed to spell them based on how it sounded. | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | rpifan: Eternal september is what I experienced in England. At least in Berlin there are detectable seasons. | 19:11 |
| rpifan | barely | 19:11 |
| rpifan | still | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | Winter isn't cold enough, but it's noticeable colder than summer. | 19:11 |
| rpifan | even barcelona isnt tha tgreat | 19:11 |
| blkshp | Eternal september, what's that supposed to mean? | 19:11 |
| rpifan | ive been comparing the charts | 19:11 |
| rpifan | and athens is much nicer | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | blkshp: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September | 19:12 |
| LjL | Stallschreiberstraße is a bit of a tonguetwister for me | 19:12 |
| rpifan | athens had 80f temps way into october | 19:12 |
| rpifan | thats real summer | 19:12 |
| rpifan | its easy | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | It's not supposed to be summer in October. | 19:12 |
| rpifan | shtalshraib strase | 19:12 |
| rpifan | tada | 19:12 |
| rpifan | yea it is | 19:12 |
| rpifan | thats called | 19:12 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: to be fair, german has nothing on dutch. | 19:12 |
| rpifan | mediterarane | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: I don't know what "german has nothing on dutch" means. | 19:12 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, he means that the pronunciation of Dutch is much harder/crazier than that of German | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | I used to live in northern Sweden, in Toronto, and in Iowa. In Northern Sweden I cycled to work at -40°C once, that's winter. | 19:13 |
| blkshp | 2017 was it? | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Stalschrijverstraat? | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | (I'm Dutch.) | 19:14 |
| rpifan | Arsanerit, r u a refugee | 19:14 |
| rpifan | oh | 19:14 |
| rpifan | your dutch | 19:14 |
| rpifan | why would u go to sweden then | 19:14 |
| ChineseMan | do you eat stroopwafels? | 19:14 |
| LjL | ... | 19:14 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: er, as a foreigner dutch locations are harder to read than german ones. I realise they're very similar but dutch tends to add a whole lot of extra vowels. | 19:14 |
| Arsanerit | rpifan: I'm a migrant, but not a refugee. I went to Sweden because (1) I wanted to live in a place with lots of nature around, and (2) I did most of my Master and all of my PhD there. | 19:14 |
| rpifan | the dutch dont usually go north | 19:14 |
| Arsanerit | True, there were almost no Dutch there. | 19:15 |
| Arsanerit | I think we were two Dutch people in Kiruna and two in Luleå. | 19:15 |
| LjL | rpifan, i need to ask you to press Enter a little less liberally. you dominate the scrollback even though the full sentences come from others, mostly. also, why he was in Sweden is probably his business, what sort of thing to say is "are you a refugee" because someone has lived somewhere?! | 19:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Greece shuts down all schools as deaths cross 1,000: Greece on Saturday announced the closure of primary schools, kindergartens and daycare centres as coronavirus deaths crossed a thousand. → https://is.gd/09TkV5 | 19:15 |
| Arsanerit | Most Dutch people in Sweden don't make it north of Värmland, which is about the furthest you can drive in two days. I was well north of the Arctic Circle. | 19:15 |
| rpifan | becuase sweden is full of refugees and latinos | 19:15 |
| rpifan | and im latino | 19:15 |
| euod[m] | why would the dutch ever leave? food in the netherlands is completely amazing, I've never had as much fun eating out as in amsterdam and de hague. | 19:15 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: The experience of a visitor is different from the experience of a resident. I could tell you why I am happy I left, but not now because I need to start cooking, and it would be a bit of a long story. | 19:16 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: heh I realise as a visitor it's different, but it's a beautiful country. | 19:16 |
| euod[m] | meeting dutch people abroad is always super pleasant as well. | 19:17 |
| Arsanerit | I felt more at home in Sweden and I feel more at home in Germany, I don't like flat landscapes, and there are aspects of Dutch culture I dislike. | 19:17 |
| Arsanerit | But thank you. | 19:17 |
| ChineseMan | you do eat stroopwafels then? | 19:18 |
| Arsanerit | Stroopwafels, not much. Not the rare ones I can buy in Germany because really their quality is very bad. | 19:18 |
| euod[m] | my favorite cafe in the world is in amsterdam, haarlemmerbuurt. I've visited the country before almost exclusively just to go there. | 19:18 |
| Arsanerit | I do really like boterkoek though. | 19:18 |
| ChineseMan | is german equivilent of strropwafel lebkuchen? | 19:19 |
| euod[m] | boterkoek is amazing, I find stroopwaffel to be a bit much. | 19:19 |
| Arsanerit | No. | 19:19 |
| Arsanerit | We do have some sinterklaas food comparable to Lebkuchen, bit stroopwafel and boterkoek have no equivalent in Germany afaik. | 19:19 |
| Arsanerit | Boterkoek is easy enough to bake at home. | 19:19 |
| ChineseMan | i am hungry now | 19:19 |
| Arsanerit | It's basically butter, flour, egg, and sugar. | 19:19 |
| euod[m] | when things are normal again, haarlemmerbuurt will be the first place I go. | 19:20 |
| Arsanerit | ...and the Amsterdam residents will long back for the time they weren't drowning in tourists for a while... | 19:21 |
| euod[m] | I'd like to think that I don't bother the locals too much. | 19:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +206103 cases (now 11.1 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +5286 cases (now 290562), +62 deaths (now 10878) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +130 deaths (now 12561) since 23 hours ago | 19:21 |
| Arsanerit | My parents live in Amsterdam but have stopped visiting the city centre years ago, it's too crowded there, only tourists. I think it will get poorer and worse after the pandemic is over, reportedly some capitalists have been buying struggling souvenir shops this year, branding them to be all identical. | 19:22 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: No, hopefully you don't vomit in flowerpots in people's garden after having visited the red light district while being both drunk and stoned. | 19:22 |
| euod[m] | I don't do the touristy things, I try to use french/dutch as much as possible, I don't stay in the city itself. people always ask me for directions thinking I'm a local. | 19:22 |
| Arsanerit | People have approached me in English offering me directions thinking I was a tourist :| | 19:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New York closes bars to curb virus resurgence as deaths top 1.3 mn: A swathe of new restrictions to cut off a second wave of coronavirus infections came into force in European nations on Saturday after New York closed bars and the global death toll climbed above 1.3 million. → https://is.gd/4dPoF4 | 19:24 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: the souvenir shop thing has been going on for a while. I've noticed over the last few years that there's a huge number of very identical souvenir shops selling the exact same junk, the entire of damrack and the surrounding streets look identical. | 19:24 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, someone approached me offering directions when i was in London. it was an unexpected experience. i mean i was obviously kinda lost (i was staring at the bus station map) but i don't think over here many people would spontaneously *offer* help. if asked, many would of course provide it. but just stop someone and be like "hey, do you need directions?", no, i can't picture that happening | 19:24 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: there are suspicions of money laundering during the pandemic now | 19:24 |
| euod[m] | yeah the pandemic caused a bunch of money laundering to break down. it's hard to pretend your cash came from tourism or something when there's no tourists. | 19:25 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: I was looking at a train departure board at the time. Old-skool, as opposed to just following my app. | 19:25 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, if someone *offered* me directions here i'd immediately think they have ulterior motives of some sort and try to get away :< | 19:26 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: But it's also a good time for people with cash to buy up small shops... suppose you run a small struggling tourism shop, someone comes in with a bag of money (perhaps literally) to buy it from you... that's attractive right now. | 19:26 |
| Arsanerit | The Dutch are mostly friendly, but I don't find them as tolerant as people (including Dutch) believe them to be, and there is a certain arrogance and individualism, the latter is causing serious problems in the pandemic right now. | 19:27 |
| Arsanerit | People want the pandemic to be over, but they all seem to think it's just other people, not them, that need to change their behaviour. | 19:27 |
| Arsanerit | "I'm not sick, so why should I self-isolate?" | 19:28 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: absolutely. I don't blame anybody for the state of amsterdam, and how it's going, but the sort of obtuse tourism is very obviously harming the city. I don't know how people in the netherlads are handling it, but I imagine it's made a lot harder already by the size of everything being so much smaller. | 19:28 |
| Arsanerit | The city is trying to come up with strategies how to handle it. I guess the pandemic offers a welcome break during which they can do a step back and think things over again. | 19:28 |
| euod[m] | yeah. I really hope all of my favorite places still exist whenever it makes sense to go there again. | 19:29 |
| euod[m] | I think all of them were just small local businesses. | 19:29 |
| euod[m] | all of the coffee shops can just fuck off though. I'd be happy to see them gone. | 19:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: More than 1.3 mn coronavirus deaths worldwide: More than 1.3 million people have been killed by the novel coronavirus worldwide, according to a tally from official sources compiled by AFP. → https://is.gd/d9vDWC | 19:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +218557 cases (now 11.1 million), +1796 deaths (now 250644) since 23 hours ago | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Virus curbs tighten in Europe as global deaths top 1.3 mn: A swathe of new restrictions to curtail a second wave of coronavirus infections were announced or came into force from Austria to Greece, Italy to Portugal on Saturday as the global death toll climbed above 1.3 million. → https://is.gd/AVU9he | 19:43 |
| de-facto | i dont know how accurate these modeling projections are, but if they where at least somewhat accurate their predictions are quite scary, they allow for adjusting the parameters for different non-pharmaceutical containment: https://covid19.healthdata.org/global | 19:51 |
| de-facto | %title | 19:51 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covid19.healthdata.org: COVID-19 | 19:51 |
| LjL | de-facto, they weren't really great last time i used them, but i last used them... a fair amount of time ago | 19:51 |
| LjL | they were particularly bad about knowing the amount of ICU beds available | 19:52 |
| LjL | they had some pretty bogus values for that | 19:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: BioNTech's founders: scientist couple in global spotlight: Progress on a COVID-19 vaccine has propelled the modest husband-and-wife team behind German firm BioNTech into the global limelight, with attention inevitably focussing on their background as the children of Turkish immigrants. → https://is.gd/dGi1rl | 19:52 |
| de-facto | LjL hmm ok and what about their numbers for incidence etc? | 19:53 |
| LjL | i don't know de-facto, i should have kept track of their previous predictions and then checked how true they ended up being, but i didn't do that :P and they have changed their models since | 19:53 |
| LjL | anyway, they are important because aiui they are the models that inform the US government | 19:54 |
| LjL | i have other ones here! https://covid19.specops.network/#models | 19:54 |
| de-facto | oh neat :) | 19:55 |
| de-facto | yeah actually its REALLY hard to do very longterm predictions | 19:57 |
| de-facto | i mean for short term like 1-2 weeks models may be quite accurate, but for longterm they are more useful to see the worst case scenarios, e.g. those SEIR models | 19:59 |
| LjL | people are such utter morons incapable of logical communication. https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/jte3cu/who_warns_life_will_not_return_to_normal_until/gc9ynv3/?context=3 | 19:59 |
| de-facto | i like this short term forcast here, it should be pretty accurate https://renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epidemic-Forecasting/ | 20:03 |
| rpifan | so | 20:05 |
| rpifan | does that mean germany will start to level out in the next few days? | 20:05 |
| tinwhiskers | I thought it already was | 20:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Montana, US: +1713 cases (now 45886), +37 deaths (now 514) since a day ago — France: +32095 cases (now 2.0 million), +354 deaths (now 44246) since a day ago — US: +220199 cases (now 11.1 million), +1833 deaths (now 250681) since a day ago | 20:06 |
| LjL | de-facto, i checked it out. like other models, when i test it on Italy, it has a macroscopic shortcoming (not entirely its fault, but it's a shortcoming nonetheless): it's using cases to predict future cases, without any regard to the amount of testing. | 20:07 |
| rpifan | oh | 20:07 |
| LjL | in the past few days, Italy *has* "leveled out" somewhat, if you look at cases/tests. not if you just look at cases, but that's actually a good thing, it means testing is being ramped up | 20:08 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm. bit hard to say but it's been roughly around 25,000 per day for the last 2 weeks, which is better than climbing like it was for the three weeks prior to that. | 20:08 |
| de-facto | yeah i guess it assumes that current parameters dont change too much for its shortterm predictions, and thats a reasonable assumption in most cases imho | 20:08 |
| de-facto | well unless there is a fundamental change in testing strategy or such, but for such most (any?) model forecasting fails | 20:09 |
| LjL | de-facto, why does there have to be a change? testing is going up. cases are also going up. but not when normalized by testing. what is happening? simple, more testing. | 20:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | re Amsterdam my last visit was around 1985+-5 and though scheduled for 1 week I did stay only 23h and then ran away, "screaming" | 20:10 |
| LjL | i did that sort of thing once in Sicily | 20:10 |
| de-facto | LjL, well for example when the capacity for testing is maxed out and they have to use "triage" for targeting tests to the more important cases, hence change their decision guidelines about whom to give a test | 20:12 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes, sure, but i'm saying, in Italy's case now, i think the short-term projections are *wrong*, because why there isn't a change in testing criteria, there simply is more testing that goes with more cases: if one looks at the proportion, what seems to be happening is a flattening of the new cases curve, while they predict a further rise | 20:13 |
| LjL | (not that a further rise is impossible... it probably *will* rise further sadly, but their model is just not keeping the changes in amount of testing into account at all, and IMO they need to be, even when testing strategies aren't changing) | 20:13 |
| de-facto | so you are saying that you expect a decline in the factor of infections/detected ? | 20:15 |
| de-facto | and that such a factor is not taken into account in their forecasts? | 20:16 |
| de-facto | not sure if I got you | 20:16 |
| LjL | de-facto, i don't expect a decline, in fact i expect a further rise, just slower than before. but that is because of subtler factors that i am mentally taking into account | 20:17 |
| LjL | de-facto, i can only just keep showing you the usual graph, even though apparently it doesn't load in your browser and you have to hunt for it... | 20:18 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/#box_6 the black line is tapering off | 20:19 |
| LjL | roughly | 20:19 |
| LjL | cases are still growing, but not as much as tests are | 20:19 |
| LjL | if yesterday we tested 1000 people and found 100 positives, and today we tested 1500 people and found 150 positives, would you guess we have more *actual* positives, or roughly the same? | 20:20 |
| de-facto | which is the box6? | 20:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, "New daily tests and confirmed cases" | 20:20 |
| de-facto | thx | 20:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hmm https://renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epidemic-Forecasting/_w_ef8d5c84/?tab=ecdc_pred&country=Germany seems quite a bit off | 20:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +201239 cases (now 11.1 million), +1640 deaths (now 250695) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +118 deaths (now 12564) since 23 hours ago | 20:21 |
| euod[m] | yikes. | 20:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>[14 Nov 2020 20:06:03] <tinwhiskers> I thought it already was<< yep, exactly | 20:21 |
| de-facto | LjL, hmm good question | 20:22 |
| tinwhiskers | If I'm not mistaken it drooped off pretty much the same day as lockdown measures were introduced, so it's a bit suspicious. | 20:22 |
| LjL | de-facto, i know it's unanswerable because it depends on the details of testing. but if that's the only information you have, *my* provisional conclusion is that the cases should be roughly the same amount | 20:22 |
| tinwhiskers | like maybe less people going out to get tested or something like that rather than the numbers *really* flattening off. | 20:23 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i'll quote a briton i know: "we plateaued before lockdown started. THE LOCKDOWN IS A LIE" | 20:23 |
| tinwhiskers | it just seemed to happen far too quickly. | 20:23 |
| LjL | i *think* he was at least 65% joking | 20:23 |
| tinwhiskers | lol. right. | 20:23 |
| blkshp | .3 | 20:23 |
| de-facto | LjL, yes thats what i thought too, but then i asked myself why there were more tests, e.g. was there a reason that more people were asking to get tested? | 20:23 |
| euod[m] | LjL: nah. I know people personally who keep denying that COVID19 even meaningfully exists, so they're off running conferences, weddings, traveling to different countries to go visit their friends, you name it. | 20:24 |
| LjL | de-facto, if you look at the graph i gave you, it seems that testing roughly follows new cases. there was an exponentially higher number of new cases, there was also an exponentially higher number of testing. they were just doing what they were supposed to do: test all contacts etc. | 20:25 |
| euod[m] | at least in the US, testing is highly biased because you have a huge number of people denying it, who are almost certainly either positive or will end up positive. | 20:25 |
| LjL | de-facto, try clicking also on "Trend persone testate", that's information that many other countries don't provide. instead of total number of tests, you get total number of tested *individuals*, so it excludes repeated testing on the same person | 20:25 |
| euod[m] | the people getting tested as the ones paying attention and following the guidelines. | 20:26 |
| LjL | de-facto, there, the exponential growth in the cases/tests ratio is even more pronounced. but there also, it tapers off recently. | 20:26 |
| LjL | euod[m], yes, cases from testing are never going to be representative of "real" cases | 20:26 |
| tinwhiskers | My guess is the reason Germany flattened off was because Germans are smart enough to freak out at the numbers that were happening and started taking measures into their own hands a couple of weeks prior to the formal restrictions. | 20:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm still estimating we seen peak_newcases in germany yesterday | 20:27 |
| LjL | euod[m], de-facto always insists that we should allocate 1% of the tests to test random samples of the population, that way we'd have real information about the prevalence | 20:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | for 2020 | 20:27 |
| de-facto | LjL, i mean if tests were initiated by a screening like people were *asked* to participate in testing it would make sense: test 1k get 100, test 1.5k get 150, conclude its 10%, but what if people ask to get tested because they assume they got infected and testing capacity can be provided to them, then 50% more people got such a reason | 20:27 |
| euod[m] | LjL: absolutely. even if it's just walking to 1000 people a day, selected completely at random and doing PCR tests which aren't invasive nasal swabs, that would produce better data than what we have now. | 20:28 |
| LjL | de-facto, well you can rest assured there is not much "excess" testing capacity in italy :P | 20:28 |
| tinwhiskers | PCR tests use nasal swabs | 20:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yesterday I thought it was today but it turns out we're already "around the corner" today | 20:28 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, they don't have to, there are papers claiming a saliva swab works fine (and others saying it doesn't) | 20:29 |
| tinwhiskers | (they don't actually need to use nasal swabs but that has been the standard protocol since the start) | 20:29 |
| tinwhiskers | umm. exactly | 20:29 |
| euod[m] | functionally it doesn't matter if your PCR test has a 50% false anything rate. so long as you do it consistently. | 20:29 |
| tinwhiskers | nevertheless, PCR tests *do currently* use nasal swabs | 20:29 |
| euod[m] | an increase in noisy data is still an increase. | 20:29 |
| euod[m] | sure, find a test that is noisy and doesn't involve poking someone's brain with a swab :) | 20:30 |
| LjL | euod[m], tinwhiskers, but anyway, you don't necessarily need to worry about people who will say "no thanks, i'll pass, i don't want a scary nose swab!" - you can get a random sample anyway by having "backup" individuals selected using certain criteria... it's similar to how the seroprevalence studies were done: there were certainly going to be many people who refuse it, but the statisticians can account for that, at least unless it's more than a certain | 20:30 |
| LjL | expected number of non-responders | 20:30 |
| euod[m] | one of my close friends did the nasal swab thing and, god damn she did not enjoy that. | 20:30 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 20:30 |
| LjL | it has been pretty much universally reported as very non-enjoyable | 20:31 |
| LjL | Skunny, how did you like your tests | 20:31 |
| de-facto | afaik in Austria they also let people gargle with a saline solution and let them spit that into a testing tube for an RT-PCR test | 20:31 |
| euod[m] | LjL: you then have a bias though to account for. doesn't make it useless but it adds a bias against people who think they're not positive. | 20:31 |
| tinwhiskers | de-facto: nice | 20:31 |
| LjL | yes i don't think they *necessarily* *currently* involve a nasal swab | 20:31 |
| LjL | the world is big, different places do different things | 20:31 |
| LjL | euod[m], what i'm saying is that while i can't get into details because *i* am not a statistician, they select their sample (and their "backup sample") to counteract those biases | 20:32 |
| tinwhiskers | I was merely responding to "and doing PCR tests which aren't invasive nasal swabs" - they overwhelmingly are. | 20:32 |
| LjL | well that's probably why he specified that condition :P | 20:32 |
| de-facto | i think it may be quite a good solution because people can do that themselves and essentially the sample is taken from a much bigger surface of mucus, hence may have less concentration jitter | 20:32 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I see... | 20:32 |
| de-facto | but thats only a guess | 20:32 |
| LjL | you just like the word jitter | 20:33 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Efficacy and Safety of Ivermectin for Treatment and prophylaxis of COVID-19 Pandemic (86 votes) | https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-100956/v1 | https://redd.it/ju2hv2 | 20:33 |
| tinwhiskers | I read it as saying PCR tests are not nasal swabs | 20:33 |
| de-facto | yes most of the PCR tests use nasal swabs afaik | 20:33 |
| tinwhiskers | right. Then I agree. it's about time we started using non-nasal swab PCR tests more. | 20:33 |
| de-facto | i think even those new antigen-quicktests use nasal swabs, at least its described like that in their manual | 20:34 |
| tinwhiskers | We always have some ivermectin in the fridge back home. when I get home I'll certainly be keeping that handy. | 20:34 |
| de-facto | which is... suboptimal because it requires medical personal to take such sample deep in the nose, in contrast to gargling that easily could be done at home at some point | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +4280 cases (now 290596), +67 deaths (now 10888) since 22 hours ago | 20:36 |
| de-facto | so why dont they gain their experience with medical personal with a procedure (e.g. gargling) that can be done without medical personal at some point? | 20:36 |
| de-facto | well maybe they will adjust for that in the next iteration, never miss any opportunity to waste time :/ | 20:37 |
| tinwhiskers | In places where testing is below capacity like NZ and Australia they should be taking nasal swabs and a gargle/saliva test so we can compare the results without reducing the tests available where they are needed. | 20:38 |
| de-facto | yes that would be a very good idea | 20:39 |
| de-facto | but also some prevalence is needed for that | 20:39 |
| tinwhiskers | fair | 20:40 |
| tinwhiskers | we do get a number of cases coming into quarantine though | 20:40 |
| de-facto | yes of course but rare effects need quite a big number of samples to accumulate enough statistic for a significant statement | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 20:41 |
| de-facto | hence they test vaccines in high prevalence regions for example | 20:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>because it requires medical personal to take such sample deep in the nose<< actually there's an irritating amount of TV reports showing supposedly trained medical personal in full protective suits taking "nasal swab" like 4 to 5mm deep "in" the nose. WTF?! | 20:43 |
| de-facto | when i did that they were taking the sample deep inside the nose like idk 150mm or such? | 20:44 |
| de-facto | still its a tiny cotton ball that has to touch the correct surface enough to get a decent sample, i would assume a proper gargling procedure may be more reproducible, yet i am not sure if taking a sample from within the nose may be positive earlier if replication begins there | 20:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: U.S. Adds 184,000 Coronavirus Cases In One Day, With No End In Sight: The country set another record for daily infections. America is the world leader in COVID-19 fatalities. President-elect Joe Biden expressed alarm and urged the Trump administration to take action. → https://is.gd/q21mt7 | 20:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | makes me want to shout at them >>when you still can SEE the cotton ball of the cotton-swab you DID IT WRONG stupid!<< | 20:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +176216 cases (now 11.2 million), +1492 deaths (now 250781) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4814 cases (now 291130), +71 deaths (now 10892) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +94 deaths (now 12582) since 23 hours ago | 20:50 |
| de-facto | hmm what if its dry or super stuffy though? | 20:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | even >>first apply 5 hits of this sea water rhino spray, _then_ blow your nose into this special tissue<< | 20:54 |
| de-facto | yeah why not, would be interesting to compare such approaches to the traditional ones | 20:55 |
| de-facto | essential being that people could do it themselves at home and then either analyze samples with a testing solution and florescence readout, paper quicktest strip at home or have a sample transported to a local lab for performing some PCR et al | 20:56 |
| de-facto | imho this would make a big difference if it would scale | 20:57 |
| de-facto | but people really would have to do it themselves without reliance on any central capacity other than producing tests with the least consumable parts possible (e.g. only testing solution or such) | 20:58 |
| de-facto | solutions scale when they are implemented on a distributed basis, not requiring any central capacities | 20:58 |
| de-facto | i mean if quicktests already are at 7 euro, why not below 1 euro with less consumable parts? | 21:00 |
| de-facto | they dont have to be absolutely perfect, just available for cheap and really scalable | 21:01 |
| de-facto | easily accessible for everyone like toilet paper in the supermarket | 21:01 |
| de-facto | i mean just imagine one could buy a tiny device for 30 euro that would readout testing samples via two wavelengths just as pulse oximeters or such | 21:03 |
| de-facto | and then buy a antigen testing solution and a cleaner solution for the probe glasses or such | 21:03 |
| de-facto | then all scaling could be done on an industrial scale with producing those and not require any personal for taking the tests because people would do those at home before brushing their teeth | 21:04 |
| de-facto | something like that but its wishfull thinking even 8 months into the pandemic | 21:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Utah, US: +5352 cases (now 151141), +9 deaths (now 710) since 23 hours ago — Himachal Pradesh, India: +825 cases (now 29008), +12 deaths (now 423) since a day ago — US: +174218 cases (now 11.2 million), +1458 deaths (now 250843) since 23 hours ago — South Dakota, US: +53 deaths (now 621) since an hour ago | 21:05 |
| de-facto | but hey maybe it requires someone like Elon Musk to do such things | 21:07 |
| Skunny | <LjL> Skunny, how did you like your tests | 21:15 |
| Skunny | it was fin | 21:16 |
| Skunny | fine | 21:16 |
| Skunny | nothing crazy | 21:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +192471 cases (now 11.2 million), +1602 deaths (now 250987) since a day ago | 21:21 |
| de-facto | Skunny, how deep inside the nose did they take the sample? | 21:24 |
| Arsanerit | My mother said it hurt her when she was tested due to symptoms (her result was negative). | 21:29 |
| de-facto | for me it was a bit inconvenient but did not hurt, so it was fine | 21:32 |
| tinwhiskers | I friend back home had it and said it was extremely unpleasant but not really painful. | 21:32 |
| de-facto | id do it again without hesitation, imho nothing to worry about | 21:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +183341 cases (now 11.2 million), +1558 deaths (now 250990) since a day ago — Germany: +14552 cases (now 787374), +101 deaths (now 12604) since 21 hours ago | 21:36 |
| de-facto | except that it requires such a huge effort of medical personal with personal protection equipment and all that | 21:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from CDC (old): Cases in the U.S.: CDC COVID Data Tracker - Cases and Deaths by State → https://is.gd/yJtqEF | 21:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +168635 cases (now 11.2 million), +1492 deaths (now 251000) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4999 cases (now 291316) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +9 deaths (now 3351) since 8 hours ago | 21:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Suicide claimed more Japanese lives in October than 10 months of COVID → https://is.gd/fXu2YJ | 22:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mali: +62 cases (now 3868) since 23 hours ago — US: +1452 deaths (now 251001) since 23 hours ago | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +167826 cases (now 11.2 million), +1539 deaths (now 251113) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +15920 cases (now 788742), +115 deaths (now 12618) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +72 deaths (now 10898) since 22 hours ago | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +168189 cases (now 11.2 million), +1534 deaths (now 251126) since 23 hours ago | 22:36 |
| de-facto | Trump said he would not lockdown US, so i guess thats it for the winter then | 22:37 |
| euod[m] | at this point he's probably right. | 22:46 |
| euod[m] | lockdowns are for when contract tracing and other methods fail. | 22:46 |
| euod[m] | there's so many cases in the US now that contract tracing is pointless. | 22:47 |
| euod[m] | asking people in the US to lockdown will simply be ignored. | 22:47 |
| euod[m] | everybody will ignore any protections for thanksgiving, and new years, and christmas. | 22:48 |
| euod[m] | deaths seem to lag cases by about 19 days on average. I wouldn't be surprised if we see at least another 100k deaths in the US before the new year. | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +163581 cases (now 11.2 million), +1393 deaths (now 251132) since 23 hours ago | 22:51 |
| euod[m] | the current death rate is 1k per day. if this continues with no change we would expect 50k deaths by the 31st of december. | 22:52 |
| euod[m] | maybe 100k is too conservative. | 22:54 |
| de-facto | no increase in fatalities? | 22:57 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Estimation of US Children’s Educational Attainment and Years of Life Lost Associated With Primary School Closures During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic (80 votes) | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2772834 | https://redd.it/ju5y35 | 22:57 |
| Arsanerit | There are people still considering family gatherings at Thanksgiving in the USA? | 22:58 |
| de-facto | they do raise too, so maybe the same fit function than for new infections could be applied to fatalities with a delay of maybe 2 weeks or such and also of course scaled down by CaseFatalityRatio | 22:59 |
| euod[m] | <Arsanerit "There are people still consideri"> yes, I personally know people booking flights to go home to their families. | 22:59 |
| de-facto | people want to have fun and be entertained, if its more important to them than risking the lives of their loved ones its their priorities, i cant understand that though | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +166212 cases (now 11.2 million), +1404 deaths (now 251143) since a day ago — Canada: +4772 cases (now 291473) since 23 hours ago | 23:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Massachusetts, US: +3047 cases (now 186142), +28 deaths (now 10293) since a day ago — US: +165295 cases (now 11.2 million), +1377 deaths (now 251172) since 23 hours ago | 23:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kentucky, US: +3293 cases (now 136137), +11 deaths (now 1658) since a day ago — US: +167971 cases (now 11.2 million), +1360 deaths (now 251183) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +16077 cases (now 788899), +116 deaths (now 12619) since 23 hours ago | 23:35 |
| euod[m] | de-facto: neither. I wasn't justifying the behavior at all. I think it | 23:44 |
| euod[m] | is fucking insane. | 23:45 |
| de-facto | i also suspect no informed decision behind such choices but rather just ignoring facts and reality, but heh maybe thats just me | 23:45 |
| euod[m] | welll part of it is that people "following the rules" don't actually understand them. | 23:46 |
| euod[m] | staying 2 meters away from someone doesn't make an activity safe, it's a distance where your risk is reduced. if you sit 2 meters from a bunch of people all day long, you will get infected no matter what you're doing. | 23:46 |
| de-facto | oh thats a very good point, people have to understand the rationale behind the rules to proactively implement the idea rather than just "following the rules" without thinking | 23:47 |
| euod[m] | right. there's a lot of people stringently following what they think are rules which will keep them absolutely safe, where the rules are minimum guidelines. | 23:48 |
| euod[m] | stay 2 meters apart if you can't avoid contact, else avoid contact. etc. | 23:48 |
| de-facto | but that requires that people are not driven into opposition but rather understand that we all sit on one boat with this and containment of the infection is in the interest of everyone (economy as well) yet only as good as it weakest points where new infections happen because of leaks in containment | 23:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +169159 cases (now 11.2 million), +1371 deaths (now 251194) since a day ago | 23:51 |
| de-facto | to be honest i dont even know all the rules, its pages and pages of them and a lawyer is required to understand all of them, but i try to be as cautious as possible and avoid risk situations, think about possible contagion paths etc. any rule i knew of i already implemented in advance before other people were even talking about it | 23:51 |
| de-facto | for example wearing masks in public stores | 23:51 |
| de-facto | or distancing | 23:51 |
| de-facto | or suspecting aerosol transmission | 23:52 |
| de-facto | i was opening windows already in the march fighting with other people about it | 23:52 |
| euod[m] | heh, at the start of February I'd already left my city. | 23:52 |
| de-facto | i did not travel ever in 2020 | 23:53 |
| de-facto | i never ever used public transport | 23:53 |
| de-facto | i was in the city two times only and always was wearing ffp3 mask | 23:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Microsoft says hackers from Russia and North Korea attacked COVID-19 vaccine makers → https://is.gd/sgTzDR | 23:54 |
| de-facto | i measure my temp daily and also blood oxygen and generally stay away from other people | 23:54 |
| de-facto | well i have to admit i enjoy to have a proper reason for that :P | 23:54 |
| LjL | Lol, I have my revenge https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-b2a8af0ef10063605bac14b6a7a46414 | 23:55 |
| de-facto | lool | 23:56 |
| euod[m] | bet the germans have a great word for that. | 23:56 |
| LjL | Kautschkartoffel | 23:57 |
| LjL | de-facto: do you usually have 98-99% sat | 23:57 |
| Zalyssa | verrückt? | 23:58 |
| de-facto | well sometimes 96-98% sometimes even 99% now | 23:58 |
| de-facto | it gets better with time i think | 23:58 |
| de-facto | since i am ex-chainsmoker only for 8 months yet | 23:58 |
| LjL | de-facto: with time? | 23:58 |
| LjL | Ah, right | 23:58 |
| de-facto | yes | 23:59 |
| LjL | de-facto: have you checked it while you're in bed, like right after waking up, is it any different | 23:59 |
| de-facto | and it even depends if i opened a window sometimes i think | 23:59 |
| LjL | Also what model of oximeter do you have | 23:59 |
| de-facto | yeah but it never goes below 96 | 23:59 |
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