Brainstorm | Updates for US Virgin Is: +75 cases (now 1613) since 5 days ago | 00:05 |
---|---|---|
DocScrutinizer05 | euod[m]: it annoys me to no end how we waste everybody's time and money and berves here in Germany with a fake lockdown that meanwhile proves the 4th week that it doesn't work the way it's supposed to | 00:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | even comedians meanwhile argue PRO hard lockdown | 00:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | but our politicians are such a pathetic washout | 00:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | s.berves.nerves. | 00:13 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Uruguay: +276 cases (now 6731) since 23 hours ago | 00:22 |
euod[m] | DocScrutinizer05: it's for similar reasons too. politicians have a generally very short outlook. | 00:45 |
euod[m] | keeping people "happy" and not locked down is therefor preferable. | 00:45 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: Education Dept. Extends Student Loan Payment Freeze Through January: Congress hit pause on federal student loan payments in the CARES Act. The latest extension of this relief will last until after President-elect Joe Biden takes office. → https://is.gd/jH4Thu | 00:56 |
Brainstorm | New preprint: A “Clinician’s Probability Calculator” to convert pre-test to post-test probability of COVID-19 , based on method validation from each laboratory by Zoe Brooks et al, published on 2020-12-04 at https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202012.0094/v1 [... want %more?] | 01:01 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2032195 | 01:09 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2032195 | 01:10 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Durability of Responses after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273 Vaccination | NEJM | 01:10 |
de-facto | so this shows the longterm immunity from the mRNA vaccines of Moderna | 01:10 |
de-facto | https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/0/nejm.ahead-of-print/nejmc2032195/20201202/images/img_xlarge/nejmc2032195_f1.jpeg | 01:10 |
de-facto | i wonder what that means in terms of immunity for transmissibility versus immunity for severe progressions | 01:13 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +72 deaths (now 5293) since 13 hours ago | 01:22 |
Skunny | a friend called and asked if I wanted to go to an escape room tomoorow | 01:27 |
Skunny | O.O | 01:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Panama: +2388 cases (now 173607), +13 deaths (now 3154) since 23 hours ago | 01:36 |
rmonten[m] | DocScrutinizer05: seems like the Bundesländer put their foot down against Frau Merkel and the federal government in opposition of a strong lockdown, so now they can't add further restrictions without losing face | 01:45 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canadian premier of Manitoba criticizes plan to make COVID-19 vaccine available to vulnerable Indigenous communities | "Manitoba’s premier turns to racist dog whistle politics as his approval ratings nosedive over his mishandling of the pandemic" → https://is.gd/1jdi6E | 01:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | rmonten[m]: indeed | 01:46 |
LjL | Italy added restrictions for around Christmas time but at the same time they're also downgrading most regions so there is no lockdown, and letting shops be open until 21 and giving financial incentives for buying from physical stores | 01:46 |
LjL | 21 as in 9pm i mean | 01:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: this shows the longterm immunity from the mRNA vaccines<< well... it's about neutralizing antibodies concentration and only a 90 days after second shot. >>Serum neutralizing antibodies continued to be detected in all the participants at day 119<< So not much except "works excellent with no indication of quick vanishing of the protection" can be concluded from this. Particularly it doesn't even look at cellular immune | 01:56 |
DocScrutinizer05 | system at all, which is the reallocation of "immune system long term memory" | 01:56 |
de-facto | yes but they did pseudovirus neutralization assays | 01:58 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the real location* - not re-allocation ;-D | 01:58 |
de-facto | but indeed t-cell immunity was not really considered it seems | 01:58 |
de-facto | btw afaik 100µg is also the dose that showed sterilizing immunity of the Moderna mRNA vaccine in monkey trials in the nasal and upper rrespiratory tracts | 02:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ooh, that's good to hear | 02:00 |
de-facto | in contrast to 10µg that was only sufficient to prevent lower respiratory tract infections | 02:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto[m]: ? | 02:01 |
euod[m] | LjL: quebec did something more sensible. massive lockdown before and after christmas. | 02:04 |
euod[m] | oh no wait, that's been canceled now. lockdowns all through, no christmas. | 02:05 |
euod[m] | https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.5196612!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_960/image.jpg | 02:05 |
euod[m] | it did look like this. | 02:05 |
euod[m] | 24th through 27th not in lockdown for the periode de festivites, but yeah that's not happening at all because things are more fucked than when that was planned. | 02:06 |
euod[m] | .cases quebec | 02:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +12102 cases (now 2.3 million) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +5803 cases (now 545453), +59 deaths (now 9634) since 21 hours ago | 02:07 |
Brainstorm | euod[m]: In Quebec, Canada, there have been 146532 confirmed cases (1.8% of the population) and 7155 deaths (4.9% of cases) as of 19 hours ago. 126771 tests were performed (115.6% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Quebec for time series data. | 02:07 |
euod[m] | was going to say, if the numbers brainstorm posted for "france" was in response to the quebec query, damn that's cold. | 02:07 |
de-facto | hence my curiosity about where that threshold may lay in the declining antibody levels, e.g. how long it takes from preventing transmission capability of exposed vaccinated to only prevent severe progressions | 02:08 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2024671 | 02:08 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Evaluation of the mRNA-1273 Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Nonhuman Primates | NEJM | 02:08 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, ^^ | 02:09 |
de-facto | "Viral replication was not detectable in BAL fluid by day 2 after challenge in seven of eight animals in both vaccinated groups. No viral replication was detectable in the nose of any of the eight animals in the 100-μg dose group by day 2 after challenge, and limited inflammation or detectable viral genome or antigen was noted in lungs of animals in either vaccine group." | 02:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ta | 02:10 |
de-facto | Figure 3: https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.383.issue-16/nejmoa2024671/20201009-01/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2024671_f3.jpeg | 02:11 |
de-facto | so i am curious a) if there is also such an effect in humans that may prevent transmission significantly b) how long that effect on inhibition of replication in the nasal region lasts (according to that decline data in humans above) | 02:13 |
de-facto | Their Figure 3B shows that there is a difference between 10µg and 100µg doses, hence there also might be a difference emerging from a threshold in decline of ab titers (well assumed 10µg and 100µg do not trigger completely different mechanisms) | 02:15 |
LjL | euod[m], is that more sensible? the idea here is to slightly loosen things *around* christmas (to try to give the economy a bit of a boost i guess) but on christmas day and the days around it and around new year's, nobody can move to another municipality and the curfew is extended. basically they're trying to stop christmas and new year's reunions, and i think that makes sense, even though it's sad | 02:16 |
euod[m] | LjL: yeah well it's just outright banned now. you can not do christmas. | 02:17 |
euod[m] | my personal circle has gone from "lets do christmas but like, outside and distanced" to "nope" in the past week, I'm happy about that. | 02:18 |
LjL | someone interviewed on tv said something like "since it's forbidden to move on the 25th, we'll do christmas on the 24th, but mind, lunch only! no dinner" | 02:18 |
LjL | as if that's sensible just because she's dodging the laws | 02:18 |
euod[m] | as a general thing COVID19 has mostly revealed to me how many people have a room temperature IQ. | 02:19 |
LjL | (although i thought the 24th was also off limits, not sure) | 02:19 |
LjL | heh | 02:19 |
LjL | damn that's worse in celsius | 02:19 |
euod[m] | there's loads of people who try to justify to me that they're technically within the restrictions, where it's like, that's not the fucking point. | 02:19 |
euod[m] | we're two meters apart but sharing a lollipop, yeah that meets the restrictions so it's "safe" right? | 02:20 |
LjL | only if you're eating it through a hole in your mask | 02:20 |
de-facto | If Reproduction Number R = Transmissibility * ContactRate * DurationOfInfectiousness then each of those can be reduced independently and smoothly: 1) Transmissibility by viral load (initial infection dose, level of immunity) as well as non-pharmaceutical measures (masks, distance, hygiene etc) 2) ContactRates by Lockdown and reduction to the minimum necessary 3) DurationOfInfectiousness may be reduced even with no perfect immunity hence | 02:21 |
de-facto | also depend on level of immunity | 02:21 |
euod[m] | it's just idiotic. I simply didn't realise how stupid the general population is until I watched them try to handle basic pandemic safety. | 02:21 |
Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First COVID-19 and Flu Combination Test for use with home-collected samples → https://is.gd/lf2hKh | 02:22 |
euod[m] | genuine conversation I overheard in a medical setting "I'm wearing gloves" "yes but you're also using them to eat [a sandwich]" | 02:23 |
de-facto | So essentially vaccination might bring down both Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness hence introduce an efficiency factor like (1 - v * e) into that R = R0 * (1 - v * e) hence 100% susceptible minus proportion of vaccinated people v multiplied by the vaccines efficientcy e to reduce Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness | 02:25 |
de-facto | Hence the proportion of vaccinated would be given by v = (R0 - 1) / (e * R0) | 02:27 |
de-facto | essentially what i want to say is that its not black and white, every efficiency e > 0 already helps to bring down Reproduction Number R | 02:28 |
de-facto | but since it a product e * v it means that the threshold for endemic transition can be missed by both, either too low vaccination participation v or even be impossible if efficiency e is too low for a given R0 | 02:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | euod[m]: where is that? sounds much like USA | 02:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | though in some european places, you likely find a very similar mindset | 02:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5550 cases (now 402593) since 19 hours ago — New Zealand: +9 cases (now 2078) since a day ago | 02:50 |
de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/OL0hPtD https://i.imgur.com/glXCa4A.png | 03:11 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: VACCINATION: Endemic State R = R0 (1 - v e) for vaccinated v with efficiency e - Album on Imgur | 03:11 |
de-facto | slight correction (naming) | 03:17 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Doctor who refused to wear mask has medical license suspended (10746 votes) | https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/anti-mask-doctor-who-spoke-at-pro-trump-rally-medical-license-suspended/283-26b7d46b-67d9-4371-a8f8-771069ca93f1 | https://redd.it/k6uxog | 03:17 |
de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/povdb5p https://i.imgur.com/ADFDXMN.png | 03:17 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: VACCINATION: Endemic State R = R0 (1 - v e) = 1 for vaccinated v with efficiency e with R0 = 2.0 ... 5.0 in steps of 0.1 - Album on Imgur | 03:17 |
de-facto | Finally they should suspend many many more medical licenses | 03:18 |
de-facto | hmm ok to be fair the biggest majority of medical doctors act sane, but for that minority that swims against the flux of consensus sabotaging the efforts of the colleagues to prevent harm there should be consequences | 03:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yeah | 03:25 |
LjL | i heard some pretty terrible things about how COVID patients were treated in a hospital in Calabria | 03:26 |
LjL | i hope it's an isolated incident but... doctors and nurses are under stress, and unlike most patients, COVID patients can't decide to leave the hospital even if they feel they would be better off at home | 03:27 |
LjL | so reportedly this one person was denied water, called his daughter to tell her and that he wanted to go home because he wasn't taken care of in the hospital, the result was that next time the daughter tried to call, some nurse or doctor picked up the phone and rudely told her that her father was "not cooperating", and later than he'll probably be dead in ten minutes, and ten minutes later "he's dead, told you so" | 03:28 |
LjL | that's her story anyway | 03:28 |
LjL | presumably the "dead in ten minutes" was said in the patient's presence, since he said he was "here and conscious" | 03:29 |
de-facto | just watched the yt video from the king5 article above, absolutely unbelievable how such people can get medical licenses | 03:32 |
de-facto | well yet also the big majority of medical personal are absolute heroes saving a lot of lives from being lost to COVID-19 | 03:37 |
de-facto | i have to say that i have the biggest respect from those working in such jobs currently | 03:37 |
de-facto | before too but especially right now they perform extremely good under great pressure even risking their own health | 03:38 |
de-facto | i think they also deserve, if they want, to get access to the vaccines first right next to the high risk groups like the elderly | 03:39 |
de-facto | quite some time ago i was making my community service in a medical hospital and i remember that some older people sometimes are quite confused due to the change in environment and their health problems, so they react with going into some sort of opposition, even when caring about them in the most compassionate ways they sometimes are opposed to the whole situation and tell horror stories that were not true in the case that i have | 03:44 |
de-facto | observed there | 03:44 |
de-facto | I ended up having to search for them in the whole hospital because they also tried to "flee" going home by foot or such | 03:45 |
de-facto | then i had to convince them back again | 03:46 |
de-facto | Since of course it was not allowed to lock them into their rooms, we put metal bowls on the doorknobs so that we could hear the metal falling when they left their room against medical advice and we could go and talk to them, make them feel comfortable again and bring them out of their horror fantasies again with convincing them that we help them | 03:49 |
de-facto | So i really dont know if something like that was the case there too LjL, i just wanted to mention that older people in unfamiliar environment with worrying medical conditions can go "into opposition" and quite some effort may be needed to convince them that its the best for them to stay | 03:53 |
LjL | de-facto, this hospital has had several report and is under investigation now. not everybody is a hero, and we're not always talking about very old people with dementia or such. this man was 78 and lucid. | 03:55 |
LjL | i've heard horror stories especially about nursing homes in italy, and some have been proven true by hidden camera footage and such. i don't mean to blame the majority of doctors and nurses who are surely great | 03:56 |
LjL | but whenever you are somewhere kind of against your will there is a risk that someone will abuse their position | 03:56 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, assholes are to be found literally everywhere, in a pretty much precise average statistical percentage | 03:56 |
de-facto | yes of course and it has to be taken seriously, i just wanted to also mention the other possibility too to open the full field of possibilities | 03:57 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 100% with you on that | 03:57 |
LjL | anyway, you don't tell a relative (nevermind in the presence of the patient) "i bet he'll die in ten minutes" | 04:00 |
LjL | no matter what the man was doing or opposing | 04:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I tend to doubt that detail the most | 04:00 |
de-facto | yes thats absolutely not tolerable behavior | 04:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it might have a true seed, but... | 04:01 |
LjL | well we may see how the investigation goes, but i doubt there can be found much evidence of anything | 04:01 |
LjL | unless everybody is like me and records their phonecalls | 04:01 |
LjL | the other accusation was that for several patients who died, their belongings were stolen | 04:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | relatives in a deep angry sorrow often blame everybody for the wildest bizarre deeds, kicking around them to fight the pain | 04:02 |
LjL | it's all just a kind of situation that i have come to expect from "healthcare" places mostly in southern italy, tbh | 04:02 |
de-facto | oh afaik in Germany one would have to ask the other party prior to doing that (btw quite a good tactic to pressure for flawless behavior when doing some inquiry or such) | 04:03 |
de-facto | recording phone calls i mean | 04:03 |
LjL | i probably don't have to ask, but anyway, i don't care | 04:03 |
LjL | the recordings will stay with me unless there's something outrageous that needs to end up in court | 04:04 |
de-facto | yeah but at least here in .de one could get a huge fine for doing that without consent (probably different in other countries though) | 04:05 |
de-facto | but i agree in general it would be a good thing if such things were recorded hence the blames could be based on the original conversations | 04:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | then otoh, when your are a nurse and come home from hospital/job after 4 days with virtually no sleep, you find a "PISS OFF!" note on your door left there by "friendly" neighbors, then 3 hours later you go back to work and maybe sometimes that person thinks they deserve more reward for the job they do, and they can't deal with phonecalls anymore, and they start acting weird. not unheard of | 04:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and then there are thieves that always acted like "hmm, this is easy prey" | 04:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | actually I'm surprised how few of those seem to work in medical care | 04:09 |
de-facto | i remember a lot was stolen at the hospital, they even had a safe for the patients most valuable belongings in each room | 04:09 |
de-facto | like for their watches or phones etc | 04:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | phone in safe, that's a win-win. ;-D it won't get stolen and nobody will call in | 04:32 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.K. Will Start Immunizing People Against COVID-19 On Tuesday, Officials Say → https://is.gd/w66ZOR | 04:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2582 cases (now 587439), +109 deaths (now 17142) since a day ago | 04:50 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Biden urges broad action on coronavirus aid after ‘grim’ jobs report → https://is.gd/lDMTCc | 05:27 |
LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: In two Danish regions, 25% of new covid-19 cases are frrom mink mutations. → https://is.gd/9wyzpm | 05:34 |
LjL | so much for eradicated? | 05:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: In two Danish regions, 25% of new covid-19 cases are frrom mink mutations. → https://is.gd/pUK24t | 05:39 |
de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/TgCYXds https://i.imgur.com/c1oThry.png | 05:43 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Test Cap, Test Queue, Tests, Positivity, Cases, ICU beds - Album on Imgur | 05:43 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, made a plot do you think any saturation effects can be seen in this (your statement about R~1 suspiciously precise)? | 05:44 |
de-facto | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v2 | 06:32 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020 | medRxiv | 06:32 |
de-facto | " Rapidly generated viral genome sequences have allowed the spread of the virus to be tracked via phylogenetic analysis (Hadfield et al., 2018; Pybus et al., 2020; Worobey et al., 2020). While the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced, allowing continent-specific variants to emerge." | 06:32 |
de-facto | "However, within Europe travel resumed in the summer of 2020, and the impact of this travel on the epidemic is not well understood. Here we report on a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20A.EU1, that emerged in Spain in early summer, and subsequently spread to multiple locations in Europe, accounting for the majority of sequences by autumn." | 06:32 |
de-facto | " We find no evidence of increased transmissibility of this variant, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel across Europe, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant’s success. Despite travel restrictions and quarantine requirements, we estimate 20A.EU1 was introduced hundreds of times to countries across Europe by summertime travellers, likely undermining local effort | 06:32 |
de-facto | s to keep SARS-CoV-2 cases low." | 06:32 |
de-facto | "Our results demonstrate how genomic surveillance is critical to understanding how travel can impact SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes." | 06:32 |
de-facto | "20A.EU1 most probably rose in frequency in multiple countries due to travel and difference in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. There is no evidence that it spreads faster." | 06:32 |
de-facto | "There are currently no data to evaluate whether this variant affects the severity of the disease." | 06:32 |
de-facto | "While dominant in some countries, 20A.EU1 has not taken over everywhere and diverse variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to circulate across Europe. 20A.EU1 is not the cause of the European ‘second wave.’" | 06:33 |
de-facto | https://github.com/emmahodcroft/cluster_scripts | 06:34 |
de-facto | %title | 06:34 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - emmahodcroft/cluster_scripts: Scripts to investigate the SUKS cluster | 06:34 |
KREYREEN | What's the rating on filters beyond FFP3? x.x | 06:53 |
KREYREEN | i am looking at gas masks and they have ABE1, K1, A2, A1.. | 06:54 |
KREYREEN | i guess different usecase as they seem to put the FFP3 on top of these O.o | 06:54 |
KREYREEN | where the ABE1 and so on seems to be carbon-based~ | 06:55 |
de-facto | i think for gas masks particle filter P3 is equivalent to FFP3 | 06:59 |
KREYREEN | de-facto, ye seems that way | 07:00 |
KREYREEN | i am looking if i can overkill it even more atm~ | 07:00 |
KREYREEN | without impeding the breathability as i am using that while driving and stuff x.x | 07:01 |
de-facto | i think the European Norm is EN 149:2001+A1:2009 | 07:01 |
KREYREEN | it's very comfy~ :3 | 07:01 |
KREYREEN | checking | 07:01 |
de-facto | hmm or is it EN 143:2000+A1:2006 ? | 07:03 |
KREYREEN | no idea x.x | 07:04 |
de-facto | e.g. https://www.srsafety.com/products/filter-2440/sr-510-particle-filter-p3-r-h02-1312.html | 07:04 |
KREYREEN | ye i need filters for bayonet mount (the 3M mounting port) | 07:05 |
KREYREEN | x.x | 07:05 |
de-facto | oh thats another system interface (physically) | 07:07 |
KREYREEN | o.o | 07:07 |
de-facto | dont they provide some filters for their interface? | 07:08 |
KREYREEN | there are so many filters x.x | 07:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +15970 cases (now 1.2 million) since 17 hours ago — Henan, China: +3 cases (now 1295) since a day ago | 07:08 |
KREYREEN | de-facto, afaik the bayonet is standard mount | 07:08 |
KREYREEN | it seems to have too many filters when you look at it on the web x.x | 07:09 |
de-facto | yeah there is a standard indeed but the Sundström have their own system and not follow that standard | 07:09 |
KREYREEN | o.o | 07:09 |
KREYREEN | So whaddya do if i get placed in a room of 50 people coughing like psychopaths with confirmed covid assuming eyes handled~ | 07:09 |
de-facto | confirmed covid? id prefer not to go there... | 07:10 |
KREYREEN | de-facto, have to if i want to be a doctor~ | 07:11 |
KREYREEN | bcs school~ | 07:11 |
KREYREEN | n me no trust in covid vaccine yet~ | 07:13 |
de-facto | whats bcs schools? | 07:13 |
KREYREEN | because school~ | 07:14 |
KREYREEN | i have to go there on january | 07:14 |
KREYREEN | bcs gov are retarded >.> | 07:14 |
de-facto | i see, well how about going with those masks that medical personal wears on COVID-19 stations? | 07:14 |
KREYREEN | de-facto, ain't safe enough for meh~ | 07:15 |
de-facto | at least for those you know how many infected appeared from statistics | 07:15 |
KREYREEN | and less comfy compared to my gas mask~ | 07:15 |
de-facto | (not surgical masks, those FFP2 or FFP3 masks they use in combination with their face shields) | 07:15 |
KREYREEN | i hate face shields~ | 07:15 |
de-facto | well then find the correct filter for your gas mask | 07:16 |
KREYREEN | and usually these are outside doing the covid testing and they use like 8 L of desinfection per day so i don't see these as valid benchmark | 07:16 |
KREYREEN | de-facto, which one though i hate the FFP3 and i want to add the carbon-based on them x.x | 07:17 |
KREYREEN | ABEK1 seems to highest to filted 10 picometers but covid can be 1 picometer O.o | 07:17 |
KREYREEN | aldo just reduced exposure would be enough with current | 07:17 |
KREYREEN | but i like overkill dammit | 07:17 |
de-facto | you dont need filters for chemicals and acid gases etc | 07:17 |
de-facto | thats not for viruses | 07:17 |
de-facto | read the standards | 07:18 |
KREYREEN | makes me feel safer though~ and it aparently can help agains virus | 07:18 |
KREYREEN | also people put perfumes on them and i see great opportunity to avoid these | 07:18 |
KREYREEN | the one my teacher's using always makes me head spin | 07:18 |
de-facto | ABEK1 is not correct at all | 07:19 |
KREYREEN | how so | 07:19 |
de-facto | its for chemicals | 07:20 |
KREYREEN | why does that matter | 07:20 |
de-facto | omg read about it | 07:20 |
KREYREEN | :c | 07:20 |
de-facto | filters are desinged for specific functions | 07:20 |
KREYREEN | so i need those adapters to combine them together~ | 07:20 |
de-facto | its not like "one catches all" they have functionality and mechanisms e.g. neutralizing chemicals, condensing organic vapors, filtering particles etc pp | 07:21 |
de-facto | they even need to be stacked in a specific order | 07:21 |
KREYREEN | whaddya suggest i get for my M3 7500 series mask then | 07:21 |
de-facto | if you know the contamination choose the correct standard and filters to protect against exactly that | 07:22 |
KREYREEN | https://www.3mcesko.cz/3M/cs_CZ/company-ctl/all-3m-products/?N=5002385+8709322+8711017+8711405+8720539+8720550&rt=r3 there is a lot to choose from x.x | 07:22 |
KREYREEN | de-facto, i don't but i assume room full of covid particles | 07:22 |
de-facto | so particles it is then | 07:22 |
KREYREEN | which based on principal saying "covid is hoax" is likely scenario | 07:22 |
de-facto | yeah sounds not like its going to be specifically prevented then | 07:23 |
KREYREEN | they said that they won't do more then gov requires them to do | 07:23 |
KREYREEN | which is how my last school got closed after hosting super spreader event for student tests~ | 07:24 |
de-facto | yeah people are stupid | 07:24 |
KREYREEN | natural selection works with these so the overall IQ should rise so me happy about that at least | 07:24 |
de-facto | well not really, because the young in the school bring it home to the vulnerable elderly who die from it then | 07:25 |
de-facto | infection fatality ratio is an exponential of age | 07:25 |
KREYREEN | in czechia the elderly seems to have sense mostly.. e.g. my grandma saying to shoot me if i come anywhere near her during pandemic | 07:25 |
KREYREEN | she doesn't have a gun though so i should be fine | 07:25 |
de-facto | IFR(age) = 100% Exp[ Ln[2] age / 5.75 years ] / 1820 | 07:25 |
de-facto | but i am also thinking about how to travel for Christmas my old parents want me to visit them, hence i somehow have to quarantine before and travel with a FFP3 Mask or such | 07:27 |
KREYREEN | i hate christmas and family always forces me to attend it.. but now that it's covid i can stay home so i am quite happy about that | 07:27 |
de-facto | to be honest i am feeling quite uncomfy about it, yet its their wish, so i have to think about how to make it safe or decline their wish | 07:30 |
KREYREEN | i would decline~ | 07:30 |
KREYREEN | rather angry parents then dead parents imho | 07:31 |
KREYREEN | aldo i hate mine so~ | 07:31 |
de-facto | btw about filter letters there is a table at wiki https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fde.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAtemschutzfilter | 07:33 |
de-facto | KREYREEN, yeah good point hmm :| | 07:34 |
KREYREEN | de-facto, i still have no idea which one to get x.x | 07:35 |
de-facto | the particle filter one i think | 07:36 |
KREYREEN | but that's what you put at the end of these anyway >.> | 07:36 |
de-facto | "P" for particles filter | 07:36 |
de-facto | so i think (no guarantee) a P3 filter should be fine for this | 07:37 |
KREYREEN | i already have these >.> | 07:37 |
de-facto | yeah but there are no chemical vapors in addition to dried droplet cores particles and virions | 07:38 |
KREYREEN | i am more concerned about those airborne~ | 07:38 |
de-facto | not the protection filter but the super fine particle filters themselves | 07:38 |
de-facto | yeah but those are particles not molecules | 07:39 |
KREYREEN | says EN 143:2000 P3 R x.x | 07:39 |
de-facto | (i am no expert though, just guessing) | 07:39 |
de-facto | yeah R for reusable | 07:39 |
KREYREEN | ye~ | 07:40 |
de-facto | https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fde.m.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAtemschutzmaske | 07:41 |
KREYREEN | aaaaaaaa | 07:41 |
KREYREEN | https://www.probez.cz/component.php?cocode=catalogue&icid=628&itid=1111599 i guess these are still the best~ | 07:42 |
de-facto | oh btw since i read about the electrostatic charging of PP fibers in those filters i am not so convinced thermal disinfection is the best idea anymore (it destroys the charges at some temp) | 07:42 |
KREYREEN | noted O.o | 07:42 |
de-facto | hmm at least in their image they shoe EN143:2000 P3 something | 07:46 |
de-facto | maybe look at 3M website for the correct documents and certs? | 07:46 |
de-facto | like 3M 6035 P3 | 07:46 |
de-facto | idk i am no expert in this | 07:46 |
de-facto | basically its all about getting the maximum filter effect (hence protection) out of the cost of air resistance (thats the price to pay for filtering) | 07:53 |
de-facto | hence the necessity to choose exactly the right filter system for the estimated contamination | 07:54 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: San Francisco mayor orders strict new lockdowns as pandemic spirals → https://is.gd/llJbS9 | 08:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany: +3375 cases (now 162388), +59 deaths (now 2978) since a day ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +1223 cases (now 115694), +33 deaths (now 2193) since a day ago — Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine: +1106 cases (now 34721), +10 deaths (now 337) since a day ago — Brandenburg, Germany: +796 cases (now 22569), +23 deaths (now 448) since a day ago | 08:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia: +5450 cases (now 158154), +37 deaths (now 1462) since a day ago | 08:22 |
euod[m] | de-facto: pity none of the nice 3M masks support filtering the output. | 08:41 |
euod[m] | the half mask I have is so ridiculously comfortable when I'm like, setting stuff on fire. | 08:41 |
jacklsw | which studies say that you can run while wearing facemask | 08:42 |
jacklsw | which facemask type that can be used when running | 08:42 |
jacklsw | you'll get suffocated when the facemask is drenched with sweat | 08:43 |
euod[m] | I don't see why you'd ever have to | 08:43 |
euod[m] | don't like, run near people. easy. | 08:43 |
jacklsw | true | 08:43 |
jacklsw | some studies nowadays are not really intensive | 08:43 |
jacklsw | maybe intensive is not the right word | 08:44 |
jacklsw | if the studies are done in a small sample size, they shouldn't claim it like globally applicable | 08:44 |
euod[m] | that's always going to be the case though. | 08:45 |
euod[m] | down to like, blood groups vary wildly per country and we know that has a huge impact on infection rates. | 08:45 |
jacklsw | ok then i'm gonna lower my expectation on the word 'studies' | 08:45 |
jacklsw | only more convincing if they write it 'proven' | 08:46 |
jacklsw | even 'proven' might not be a strong convincing word too | 08:46 |
EricGrahamMacEac | !cases USA | 08:49 |
CovBot | In United States there have been a total of 14,772,535 cases as of 2020-12-05 07:19:00 UTC. Of these 5,828,103 (39.5%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 8,658,882 (58.6%) have definitely recovered and 285,550 (1.9%) have died. | 08:49 |
gigasu_shida | hi de-facto | 08:54 |
gigasu_shida | blood groups vary wildly by country? | 08:55 |
euod[m] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_type_distribution_by_country | 08:55 |
gigasu_shida | euod[m]: which countries seem to be more immune to the virus? | 08:55 |
euod[m] | 75% O+ in Ecuador, 34.5% in Albania | 08:56 |
euod[m] | * 75% O+ in Ecuador, 34.5% O+ in Albania | 08:56 |
gigasu_shida | has enough data been collected to say that certain countries are naturally more immune? | 08:56 |
euod[m] | well, no. there is evidence to suggest O blood group is appreciably less susceptible. some countries have more O group people than others, therefor it logically follows. | 08:57 |
euod[m] | I messed up there, Pakistan is the lowest at 26% O+. | 08:58 |
gigasu_shida | oh ok | 08:58 |
gigasu_shida | but ecuador and peru got hammered on a percapita basis | 08:58 |
gigasu_shida | so i guess the largest factor is just the social behavior of a country | 08:58 |
euod[m] | I posit that the effect should be observable on some level, not that it's a driving force or anything. | 08:58 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 102-year-old woman beats COVID-19 twice → https://is.gd/17QNY8 | 09:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +28782 cases (now 2.4 million), +508 deaths (now 42684) since 23 hours ago | 09:08 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China conducting biological tests to create super soldiers | Flash News → https://is.gd/qSJvBN | 09:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +236364 cases (now 14.8 million), +2700 deaths (now 285610) since 18 hours ago | 09:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Estonia: +561 cases (now 14500), +1 deaths (now 126) since 23 hours ago | 09:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 98.5% success rate: Just 273 of over 20,000 volunteers for Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine trials have subsequently caught Covid-19 → https://is.gd/z6NSBS | 10:20 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: China doing biological tests to create ‘super soldiers’, says US intelligence chief → https://is.gd/YVoPdx | 10:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lithuania: +2848 cases (now 72430), +21 deaths (now 611) since a day ago | 10:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Once hospitalized, Black patients with COVID-19 have lower risk of death than white: While multiple research studies show that Black and Hispanic patients are more likely to test positive for COVID-19, a team of investigators at NYU Langone Health has found that once hospitalized, Black patients (after controlling for other [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/MOOvSy | 11:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: States submit vaccine orders as coronavirus death toll grows: States faced a deadline on Friday to place orders for the coronavirus vaccine as many reported record infections, hospitalizations and deaths, while hospitals were pushed to the breaking point—with the worst feared yet to come. → https://is.gd/PPrSvv | 11:20 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Moscow starts inoculating vulnerable workers against coronavirus: Moscow on Saturday began vaccinating workers at high risk of becoming infected with the coronavirus at newly opened clinics across the city. → https://is.gd/iD034y | 11:32 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Canada COVID surge sees 100,000 new cases in two weeks: Canada's second wave of COVID-19 infections has led to 100,000 new cases reported in just the last two weeks, data compiled by public broadcaster CBC showed Friday. → https://is.gd/KLRyLN | 11:44 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: Matthew Perry launches ‘Chandler Bing’ merchandise collection for COVID-19 charity → https://is.gd/wHrY5S | 12:21 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Argentina has passed a new tax on its wealthiest people to pay for medical supplies and relief measures amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/adRylD | 12:44 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: First Opinion: Opinion: Women’s perspectives and voices need more inclusion in Covid-19 media coverage → https://is.gd/xEq9cb | 13:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +237930 cases (now 14.8 million), +2758 deaths (now 285668) since 22 hours ago | 13:36 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Coronavirus: Russia rolls out COVID vaccination in Moscow → https://is.gd/04y0qZ | 13:46 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: Avocados are the ‘pandemic-proof’ crop in lockdown health craze → https://is.gd/K3CSeA | 13:58 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Denmark: +1853 cases (now 88858), +11 deaths (now 878) since 6 hours ago — Switzerland: +71 deaths (now 5314) since 23 hours ago | 14:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Sudan: +661 cases (now 19196), +19 deaths (now 1290) since a day ago | 14:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Global COVID Cases For 05DEC20: Summary As Of: 05DEC @ 12:34 GMT Countries 218 + 2 Cases Cases Deaths Deaths Recovered Rcvrd Active Cases 18,638,758 Countries reporting new cases in this update: 69 Countries reporting new deaths in this update: 49 w/Active cases w/No Active cases w/All cases rcvrd Cntry’s 211 2 5 Cases [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ftuiMY | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +6521 cases (now 550445) since a day ago | 14:36 |
atsbomb | %cases singapore | 14:42 |
Brainstorm | atsbomb: In Singapore, there have been 58255 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 29 deaths (0.0% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 5.9 million tests were performed (1.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Singapore for time series data. | 14:42 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 5 dicembre 2020: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. Modifica dellaclassificazione delle Regioni Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia,Marche, Puglia e Umbria. (20A06783) → https://is.gd/8PRZTT | 14:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +1896 cases (now 145279), +8 deaths (now 1198) since a day ago | 14:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - December 05 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/BKsy6C | 15:00 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Virginia, US: +3793 cases (now 251173), +37 deaths (now 4197) since a day ago — Germany: +391 deaths (now 18719) since a day ago | 15:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> DocScrutinizer05, made a plot do you think any saturation effects can be seen in this<< actually nope, my naive glance at it doen't give me ideas. Looks like R=~1 since we hit the bulls eye with our NPI | 15:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | It's hardly imaginable how a complete nation could keep R_eff=1 for almost 5 weeks but seems we really did | 15:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | there's sort of "automatic negative feedback" e.g. in the different hotspot thresholds )50, 100, 200, I forgot, /100k7d) which may auto-stabilize R at a certain level | 15:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | since this is a proprtional feedback with a little bit integral and differential component of a PID feedback regulation, it might work pretty well to keep the input gain at exactly 1 | 15:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | alas it also means it is completely inapt to bring R_eff to <1 | 15:56 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Iran's coronavirus deaths surpass 50,000 - health ministry → https://is.gd/6jysOA | 16:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +846 cases (now 42148), +19 deaths (now 889) since a day ago | 16:22 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 54% of Americans know someone who has died or been hospitalized: Survey → https://is.gd/p4HAaF | 16:26 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Moldova: +1728 cases (now 115557), +19 deaths (now 2403) since 23 hours ago | 16:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we got a closed loop regulation system, with a loop gain named R_eff. In a closed loop regulator with only proportional feedback (attenuation = incindeces * NPI-efficiency-constant) the total loop gain will _always_ get regulated to exactly 1 | 16:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | in other words, the 100k7d incidences will adjust to a level where the resulting interventions cause the total loop gaion R_eff to be exactly 1 | 16:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | s.gaion.gain. | 16:44 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c | 16:51 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: NHS rapid test use defended amid accuracy concerns: The tests introduced in England's tier-three areas are a "game-changer", a senior NHS adviser says. → https://is.gd/pw1Wzv | 17:03 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c | 17:16 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +15539 cases (now 1.7 million), +397 deaths (now 61014) since 23 hours ago | 17:22 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Bryan Cranston says he still hasn’t recovered sense of taste or smell after coronavirus (10458 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/bryan-cranston-coronavirus-taste-smell-recovery-b1766673.html | https://redd.it/k762ua | 17:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for South Carolina, US: +3222 cases (now 229235), +21 deaths (now 4517) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +7066 cases (now 406462), +104 deaths (now 12564) since 23 hours ago | 17:36 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: NHS rapid test use defended amid accuracy concerns: The tests introduced in England's tier-three areas are a "game-changer", a senior NHS adviser says. → https://is.gd/pw1Wzv | 17:53 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Higher viral loads in asymptomatic COVID-19 patients might be the invisible part of the iceberg (80 votes) | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s15010-020-01548-8 | https://redd.it/k6xbt2 | 17:53 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: THE THERAPEUTIC POTENTIAL OF IVERMECTIN FOR COVID-19: A REVIEW OF MECHANISMS AND EVIDENCE (80 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.30.20236570v1 | https://redd.it/k76dnp | 18:29 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US accounts for one-third of global daily coronavirus cases → https://is.gd/obQLzu | 18:42 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Arizona, US: +6799 cases (now 358900), +40 deaths (now 6925) since a day ago | 18:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Nevada, US: +3205 cases (now 165628) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +21052 cases (now 1.7 million), +662 deaths (now 59514) since a day ago | 19:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Moscow opens dozens of coronavirus vaccination centers: Thousands of doctors, teachers and others in high-risk groups have signed up for COVID-19 vaccinations in Moscow starting Saturday, a precursor to a sweeping Russia-wide immunization effort. → https://is.gd/PxvPqL | 19:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: first sketchy draft https://tinyurl.com/yyh7t2ma | 19:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | :-D | 19:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, to see the actual hotspot threshold values you got to doubleclick the schmitt trigger that highlights when you hover over the sliders | 19:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you may consider voltage levels as 1mV=1incidence/100k7d, or any other scaling factor you like | 19:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the "masks", "social distancing" and "hotspot1" elements are all "attenuators" aka NPI and with the sliders you adjust their total effectiveness | 19:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mali: +124 cases (now 5062) since 20 hours ago | 19:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | with a total loop gain aka R_eff aka R_0 * NPI1 (masks) * NPI2 (distancing) * average_NPI3 (HS1) of >1 the system runs into saturation (15V here). with <1 it decays to a very low level determined by "import cases". In a certain range the negative characteristics of the hotspot element will adjust the total loop gain aka R_eff to exactly 1 and the voltage level aka incidences stay at a steady high level | 19:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | s/ negative characteristics / inverting nonlinearity / | 19:44 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c | 19:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | improved https://tinyurl.com/y5semv5f | 20:05 |
de-facto | heh thats an interesting approach to model that, i wish politicians would stick to their own rules as physics does though | 20:09 |
de-facto | like all of them simply just ignored thresholdslike 50/100k weekly for lockdown etc | 20:09 |
de-facto | yet even having such incidence thresholds is a flawed concept as it encourages all regions to aim for a 50/100k weekly incidence, otherwise they would not be "optimal" | 20:15 |
de-facto | this is complete nonsense actually when thinking bout it one would need a relative metric that always encourages containment of transmission | 20:15 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Jersey: +91 cases (now 1261) since a day ago | 20:22 |
de-facto | interesting to play around with http://www.shodor.org/featured/DiseaseModel/JavaScript | 20:30 |
de-facto | i also know there are some other online platforms to model epidemics but i dont remember their hostname anymore | 20:31 |
de-facto | something that looked a bit like GNURadio | 20:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cyprus: +369 cases (now 12181) since 20 hours ago | 20:36 |
de-facto | dang i wish i had saved that URL back then | 20:39 |
Brainstorm | New from "COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark" on Wikipedia: Simuliid: /* Statistics */: Statistics ← Previous revision Revision as of 19:31, 5 December 2020 Line 213: Line 213: {{-}} {{-}} + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark new cases chart}} − {{Graph:Chart + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark new deaths chart}} − |type=rect − [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/58UIK3 | 20:44 |
Brainstorm | Updates for West Virginia, US: +1400 cases (now 53572), +30 deaths (now 829) since a day ago | 20:50 |
de-facto | also interesting https://idmod.org/tools https://covid.idmod.org/#/Covasim | 20:52 |
Brainstorm | New from "COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark" on Wikipedia: Simuliid: /* Statistics */: Statistics ← Previous revision Revision as of 19:54, 5 December 2020 Line 183: Line 183: {{-}} {{-}} {{-}} {{-}} + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark cases by age chart}} − {{Graph:Chart + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark deaths by age chart}} − [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/58UIK3 | 20:56 |
de-facto | another this time client-server based simulator http://www.gleamviz.org/simulator/client/ | 20:56 |
de-facto | https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-11-37 | 20:58 |
de-facto | another in JS https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html | 20:59 |
de-facto | that one is really neat ^^ LjL | 21:01 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mauritania: +178 cases (now 9359), +2 deaths (now 184) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +5605 cases (now 406839), +113 deaths (now 12583) since 21 hours ago | 21:08 |
derpadmin | %cases us | 21:15 |
Brainstorm | derpadmin: In US, there have been 14.9 million confirmed cases (4.5% of the population) and 287221 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 11 minutes ago. 203.6 million tests were performed (7.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 21:15 |
euod[m] | 0.0956% of the population for the US now. | 21:16 |
euod[m] | well, 0.0875 if I use the real population number without rounding up. | 21:17 |
euod[m] | * well, 0.0875 if I use the real population number without rounding down. | 21:17 |
derpadmin | small percentages on big numbers = big numbers | 21:18 |
derpadmin | it is sad | 21:18 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Niger: +107 cases (now 1789) since 23 hours ago | 21:22 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: much more improvement, https://tinyurl.com/y37o9b2w try the "masks" slider" and the "hotspot1 threshold" slider | 21:25 |
de-facto | neat :) | 21:27 |
de-facto | quite a creative approach to model this, even could be done with real HW that way :)) | 21:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>incidence thresholds is a flawed concept as it encourages all regions to aim for a 50/100k<< well actually the way hotspots establish harder NPI as soon as the threshold gets tripped already DOES ensure that the incidence will self-adjust to that level plus a few | 21:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | that's the whole point of my sim | 21:28 |
de-facto | yes i know so its flawed already *if* politicians would honor their own "red traffic light" they agreed upon | 21:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | technically what we got is a proportional regulator system. What we NEED is an integral regulator system, or even a PID (proportional integral differential) system | 21:31 |
de-facto | derpadmin, euod[m] estimates for the "dark number" for USA (meaning the infected that were not detected with tests and reported to end up in official numbers) suggest up to 8-fold the incidence hence may mean like 33% of US population or such https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 | 21:32 |
de-facto | %title | 21:32 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From academic.oup.com: Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020 | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic | 21:32 |
derpadmin | seems plausible | 21:33 |
euod[m] | de-facto: that's why I was focusing on the deaths number, which doesn't need as much care in reporting. there's obviously people not being reported as a COVID death, but it's better than the number for infections. | 21:33 |
derpadmin | I am pretty sure I got it asymptomatic | 21:33 |
de-facto | its pretty crazy that would mean like 100M may have had it already in US | 21:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘If you don’t think Covid is real, you’re an idiot,’ says Canadian politician → https://is.gd/zXX4Tk | 21:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PID_controller | 21:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Using proportional control alone will result in an error between the setpoint and the actual process value, because it requires an error to generate the proportional response. If there is no error, there is no corrective response.<< | 21:58 |
DocScrutinizer05 | in our case, this error are a 20000 new infections every day | 21:58 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Covid-19 deaths could nearly double by April despite rollout of vaccines, report warns: Health researchers said that the expected vaccine rollout only reduces the death toll by 9,000 before April 1 and said a rapid rollout targeting high-risk people could save 14,000 more lives. → https://is.gd/8imKTX | 22:01 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +31 deaths (now 5324) since 20 hours ago | 22:08 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c | 22:15 |
Jigsy | 3>To my understanding, the vaccine won’t prevent you from getting covid 19 or even spreading it, it works to prevent symptoms from the infected individual. | 22:22 |
Jigsy | Eh? | 22:22 |
de-facto | afaik even the mRNA vaccines are hoped (with reasons from animal trials) but not guaranteed to create sterilizing (preventing transmission) immunity | 22:49 |
Jigsy | So basically it's meant to make it harmless? | 22:55 |
Jigsy | E.g. "You'll still get it, but you won't die." | 22:55 |
de-facto | no its meant to prevent infections as well as transmissions too | 23:07 |
de-facto | animal trials give hope that will be possible %title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2024671 | 23:08 |
de-facto | %title | 23:09 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Evaluation of the mRNA-1273 Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Nonhuman Primates | NEJM | 23:09 |
de-facto | If Reproduction Number R = Transmissibility * ContactRate * DurationOfInfectiousness then each of those can be reduced independently and smoothly: 1) Transmissibility by viral load (initial infection dose, level of immunity) as well as non-pharmaceutical measures (masks, distance, hygiene etc) 2) ContactRates by Lockdown and reduction to the minimum necessary | 23:10 |
de-facto | 3) DurationOfInfectiousness may be reduced even with no perfect immunity hence also depend on level of immunity | 23:10 |
de-facto | So essentially vaccination might bring down both Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness hence introduce an efficiency factor like (1 - v * e) into that R = R0 * (1 - v * e) hence 100% susceptible minus proportion of vaccinated people v multiplied by the vaccines efficientcy e to reduce Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness | 23:11 |
de-facto | Hence the proportion of vaccinated would be given by v = (R0 - 1) / (e * R0) | 23:11 |
de-facto | essentially what i want to say is that its not black and white, every efficiency e > 0 already helps to bring down Reproduction Number R | 23:11 |
de-facto | but since it a product e * v it means that the threshold for endemic transition can be missed by both, either too low vaccination participation v or even be impossible if efficiency e is too low for a given R0 | 23:11 |
de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/povdb5p https://i.imgur.com/ADFDXMN.png | 23:11 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: VACCINATION: Endemic State R = R0 (1 - v e) = 1 for vaccinated v with efficiency e with R0 = 2.0 ... 5.0 in steps of 0.1 - Album on Imgur | 23:11 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19—Lessons Learned and Questions Remaining (80 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1654/5940148 | https://redd.it/k7bpte | 23:12 |
de-facto | also the time evolution of immunity might play a significant role on long term | 23:14 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2032195 | 23:14 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Durability of Responses after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273 Vaccination | NEJM | 23:14 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pandemic has Canadian nurses, PSWs suffering high COVID infection rate, job stress | "We now find in the midst of one of the worst occupational health and safety disasters in modern memory, that these workers have been systematically denied the most basic protections and their legal rights" → https://is.gd/NUpylC | 23:57 |
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