libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2020-12-05

Brainstorm	Updates for US Virgin Is: +75 cases (now 1613) since 5 days ago	00:05
DocScrutinizer05	euod[m]: it annoys me to no end how we waste everybody's time and money and berves here in Germany with a fake lockdown that meanwhile proves the 4th week that it doesn't work the way it's supposed to	00:11
DocScrutinizer05	even comedians meanwhile argue PRO hard lockdown	00:12
DocScrutinizer05	but our politicians are such a pathetic washout	00:12
DocScrutinizer05	s.berves.nerves.	00:13
Brainstorm	Updates for Uruguay: +276 cases (now 6731) since 23 hours ago	00:22
euod[m]	DocScrutinizer05: it's for similar reasons too. politicians have a generally very short outlook.	00:45
euod[m]	keeping people "happy" and not locked down is therefor preferable.	00:45
Brainstorm	New from NPR: Education Dept. Extends Student Loan Payment Freeze Through January: Congress hit pause on federal student loan payments in the CARES Act. The latest extension of this relief will last until after President-elect Joe Biden takes office. → https://is.gd/jH4Thu	00:56
Brainstorm	New preprint: A “Clinician’s Probability Calculator” to convert pre-test to post-test probability of COVID-19 , based on method validation from each laboratory by Zoe Brooks et al, published on 2020-12-04 at https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202012.0094/v1 [... want %more?]	01:01
de-facto	%title https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2032195	01:09
de-facto	%title https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2032195	01:10
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Durability of Responses after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273 Vaccination \| NEJM	01:10
de-facto	so this shows the longterm immunity from the mRNA vaccines of Moderna	01:10
de-facto	https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/0/nejm.ahead-of-print/nejmc2032195/20201202/images/img_xlarge/nejmc2032195_f1.jpeg	01:10
de-facto	i wonder what that means in terms of immunity for transmissibility versus immunity for severe progressions	01:13
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +72 deaths (now 5293) since 13 hours ago	01:22
Skunny	a friend called and asked if I wanted to go to an escape room tomoorow	01:27
Skunny	O.O	01:27
Brainstorm	Updates for Panama: +2388 cases (now 173607), +13 deaths (now 3154) since 23 hours ago	01:36
rmonten[m]	DocScrutinizer05: seems like the Bundesländer put their foot down against Frau Merkel and the federal government in opposition of a strong lockdown, so now they can't add further restrictions without losing face	01:45
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canadian premier of Manitoba criticizes plan to make COVID-19 vaccine available to vulnerable Indigenous communities \| "Manitoba’s premier turns to racist dog whistle politics as his approval ratings nosedive over his mishandling of the pandemic" → https://is.gd/1jdi6E	01:45
DocScrutinizer05	rmonten[m]: indeed	01:46
LjL	Italy added restrictions for around Christmas time but at the same time they're also downgrading most regions so there is no lockdown, and letting shops be open until 21 and giving financial incentives for buying from physical stores	01:46
LjL	21 as in 9pm i mean	01:47
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: this shows the longterm immunity from the mRNA vaccines<< well... it's about neutralizing antibodies concentration and only a 90 days after second shot. >>Serum neutralizing antibodies continued to be detected in all the participants at day 119<< So not much except "works excellent with no indication of quick vanishing of the protection" can be concluded from this. Particularly it doesn't even look at cellular immune	01:56
DocScrutinizer05	system at all, which is the reallocation of "immune system long term memory"	01:56
de-facto	yes but they did pseudovirus neutralization assays	01:58
DocScrutinizer05	the real location* - not re-allocation ;-D	01:58
de-facto	but indeed t-cell immunity was not really considered it seems	01:58
de-facto	btw afaik 100µg is also the dose that showed sterilizing immunity of the Moderna mRNA vaccine in monkey trials in the nasal and upper rrespiratory tracts	02:00
DocScrutinizer05	ooh, that's good to hear	02:00
de-facto	in contrast to 10µg that was only sufficient to prevent lower respiratory tract infections	02:00
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto[m]: ?	02:01
euod[m]	LjL: quebec did something more sensible. massive lockdown before and after christmas.	02:04
euod[m]	oh no wait, that's been canceled now. lockdowns all through, no christmas.	02:05
euod[m]	https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.5196612!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_960/image.jpg	02:05
euod[m]	it did look like this.	02:05
euod[m]	24th through 27th not in lockdown for the periode de festivites, but yeah that's not happening at all because things are more fucked than when that was planned.	02:06
euod[m]	.cases quebec	02:07
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +12102 cases (now 2.3 million) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +5803 cases (now 545453), +59 deaths (now 9634) since 21 hours ago	02:07
Brainstorm	euod[m]: In Quebec, Canada, there have been 146532 confirmed cases (1.8% of the population) and 7155 deaths (4.9% of cases) as of 19 hours ago. 126771 tests were performed (115.6% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Quebec for time series data.	02:07
euod[m]	was going to say, if the numbers brainstorm posted for "france" was in response to the quebec query, damn that's cold.	02:07
de-facto	hence my curiosity about where that threshold may lay in the declining antibody levels, e.g. how long it takes from preventing transmission capability of exposed vaccinated to only prevent severe progressions	02:08
de-facto	%title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2024671	02:08
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Evaluation of the mRNA-1273 Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Nonhuman Primates \| NEJM	02:08
de-facto	DocScrutinizer05, ^^	02:09
de-facto	"Viral replication was not detectable in BAL fluid by day 2 after challenge in seven of eight animals in both vaccinated groups. No viral replication was detectable in the nose of any of the eight animals in the 100-μg dose group by day 2 after challenge, and limited inflammation or detectable viral genome or antigen was noted in lungs of animals in either vaccine group."	02:10
DocScrutinizer05	ta	02:10
de-facto	Figure 3: https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.383.issue-16/nejmoa2024671/20201009-01/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2024671_f3.jpeg	02:11
de-facto	so i am curious a) if there is also such an effect in humans that may prevent transmission significantly b) how long that effect on inhibition of replication in the nasal region lasts (according to that decline data in humans above)	02:13
de-facto	Their Figure 3B shows that there is a difference between 10µg and 100µg doses, hence there also might be a difference emerging from a threshold in decline of ab titers (well assumed 10µg and 100µg do not trigger completely different mechanisms)	02:15
LjL	euod[m], is that more sensible? the idea here is to slightly loosen things around christmas (to try to give the economy a bit of a boost i guess) but on christmas day and the days around it and around new year's, nobody can move to another municipality and the curfew is extended. basically they're trying to stop christmas and new year's reunions, and i think that makes sense, even though it's sad	02:16
euod[m]	LjL: yeah well it's just outright banned now. you can not do christmas.	02:17
euod[m]	my personal circle has gone from "lets do christmas but like, outside and distanced" to "nope" in the past week, I'm happy about that.	02:18
LjL	someone interviewed on tv said something like "since it's forbidden to move on the 25th, we'll do christmas on the 24th, but mind, lunch only! no dinner"	02:18
LjL	as if that's sensible just because she's dodging the laws	02:18
euod[m]	as a general thing COVID19 has mostly revealed to me how many people have a room temperature IQ.	02:19
LjL	(although i thought the 24th was also off limits, not sure)	02:19
LjL	heh	02:19
LjL	damn that's worse in celsius	02:19
euod[m]	there's loads of people who try to justify to me that they're technically within the restrictions, where it's like, that's not the fucking point.	02:19
euod[m]	we're two meters apart but sharing a lollipop, yeah that meets the restrictions so it's "safe" right?	02:20
LjL	only if you're eating it through a hole in your mask	02:20
de-facto	If Reproduction Number R = Transmissibility * ContactRate * DurationOfInfectiousness then each of those can be reduced independently and smoothly: 1) Transmissibility by viral load (initial infection dose, level of immunity) as well as non-pharmaceutical measures (masks, distance, hygiene etc) 2) ContactRates by Lockdown and reduction to the minimum necessary 3) DurationOfInfectiousness may be reduced even with no perfect immunity hence	02:21
de-facto	also depend on level of immunity	02:21
euod[m]	it's just idiotic. I simply didn't realise how stupid the general population is until I watched them try to handle basic pandemic safety.	02:21
Brainstorm	New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First COVID-19 and Flu Combination Test for use with home-collected samples → https://is.gd/lf2hKh	02:22
euod[m]	genuine conversation I overheard in a medical setting "I'm wearing gloves" "yes but you're also using them to eat [a sandwich]"	02:23
de-facto	So essentially vaccination might bring down both Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness hence introduce an efficiency factor like (1 - v * e) into that R = R0 * (1 - v * e) hence 100% susceptible minus proportion of vaccinated people v multiplied by the vaccines efficientcy e to reduce Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness	02:25
de-facto	Hence the proportion of vaccinated would be given by v = (R0 - 1) / (e * R0)	02:27
de-facto	essentially what i want to say is that its not black and white, every efficiency e > 0 already helps to bring down Reproduction Number R	02:28
de-facto	but since it a product e * v it means that the threshold for endemic transition can be missed by both, either too low vaccination participation v or even be impossible if efficiency e is too low for a given R0	02:47
DocScrutinizer05	euod[m]: where is that? sounds much like USA	02:48
DocScrutinizer05	though in some european places, you likely find a very similar mindset	02:50
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +5550 cases (now 402593) since 19 hours ago — New Zealand: +9 cases (now 2078) since a day ago	02:50
de-facto	%title https://imgur.com/a/OL0hPtD https://i.imgur.com/glXCa4A.png	03:11
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: VACCINATION: Endemic State R = R0 (1 - v e) for vaccinated v with efficiency e - Album on Imgur	03:11
de-facto	slight correction (naming)	03:17
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Doctor who refused to wear mask has medical license suspended (10746 votes) \| https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/anti-mask-doctor-who-spoke-at-pro-trump-rally-medical-license-suspended/283-26b7d46b-67d9-4371-a8f8-771069ca93f1 \| https://redd.it/k6uxog	03:17
de-facto	%title https://imgur.com/a/povdb5p https://i.imgur.com/ADFDXMN.png	03:17
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: VACCINATION: Endemic State R = R0 (1 - v e) = 1 for vaccinated v with efficiency e with R0 = 2.0 ... 5.0 in steps of 0.1 - Album on Imgur	03:17
de-facto	Finally they should suspend many many more medical licenses	03:18
de-facto	hmm ok to be fair the biggest majority of medical doctors act sane, but for that minority that swims against the flux of consensus sabotaging the efforts of the colleagues to prevent harm there should be consequences	03:24
DocScrutinizer05	yeah	03:25
LjL	i heard some pretty terrible things about how COVID patients were treated in a hospital in Calabria	03:26
LjL	i hope it's an isolated incident but... doctors and nurses are under stress, and unlike most patients, COVID patients can't decide to leave the hospital even if they feel they would be better off at home	03:27
LjL	so reportedly this one person was denied water, called his daughter to tell her and that he wanted to go home because he wasn't taken care of in the hospital, the result was that next time the daughter tried to call, some nurse or doctor picked up the phone and rudely told her that her father was "not cooperating", and later than he'll probably be dead in ten minutes, and ten minutes later "he's dead, told you so"	03:28
LjL	that's her story anyway	03:28
LjL	presumably the "dead in ten minutes" was said in the patient's presence, since he said he was "here and conscious"	03:29
de-facto	just watched the yt video from the king5 article above, absolutely unbelievable how such people can get medical licenses	03:32
de-facto	well yet also the big majority of medical personal are absolute heroes saving a lot of lives from being lost to COVID-19	03:37
de-facto	i have to say that i have the biggest respect from those working in such jobs currently	03:37
de-facto	before too but especially right now they perform extremely good under great pressure even risking their own health	03:38
de-facto	i think they also deserve, if they want, to get access to the vaccines first right next to the high risk groups like the elderly	03:39
de-facto	quite some time ago i was making my community service in a medical hospital and i remember that some older people sometimes are quite confused due to the change in environment and their health problems, so they react with going into some sort of opposition, even when caring about them in the most compassionate ways they sometimes are opposed to the whole situation and tell horror stories that were not true in the case that i have	03:44
de-facto	observed there	03:44
de-facto	I ended up having to search for them in the whole hospital because they also tried to "flee" going home by foot or such	03:45
de-facto	then i had to convince them back again	03:46
de-facto	Since of course it was not allowed to lock them into their rooms, we put metal bowls on the doorknobs so that we could hear the metal falling when they left their room against medical advice and we could go and talk to them, make them feel comfortable again and bring them out of their horror fantasies again with convincing them that we help them	03:49
de-facto	So i really dont know if something like that was the case there too LjL, i just wanted to mention that older people in unfamiliar environment with worrying medical conditions can go "into opposition" and quite some effort may be needed to convince them that its the best for them to stay	03:53
LjL	de-facto, this hospital has had several report and is under investigation now. not everybody is a hero, and we're not always talking about very old people with dementia or such. this man was 78 and lucid.	03:55
LjL	i've heard horror stories especially about nursing homes in italy, and some have been proven true by hidden camera footage and such. i don't mean to blame the majority of doctors and nurses who are surely great	03:56
LjL	but whenever you are somewhere kind of against your will there is a risk that someone will abuse their position	03:56
DocScrutinizer05	well, assholes are to be found literally everywhere, in a pretty much precise average statistical percentage	03:56
de-facto	yes of course and it has to be taken seriously, i just wanted to also mention the other possibility too to open the full field of possibilities	03:57
DocScrutinizer05	100% with you on that	03:57
LjL	anyway, you don't tell a relative (nevermind in the presence of the patient) "i bet he'll die in ten minutes"	04:00
LjL	no matter what the man was doing or opposing	04:00
DocScrutinizer05	I tend to doubt that detail the most	04:00
de-facto	yes thats absolutely not tolerable behavior	04:00
DocScrutinizer05	it might have a true seed, but...	04:01
LjL	well we may see how the investigation goes, but i doubt there can be found much evidence of anything	04:01
LjL	unless everybody is like me and records their phonecalls	04:01
LjL	the other accusation was that for several patients who died, their belongings were stolen	04:02
DocScrutinizer05	relatives in a deep angry sorrow often blame everybody for the wildest bizarre deeds, kicking around them to fight the pain	04:02
LjL	it's all just a kind of situation that i have come to expect from "healthcare" places mostly in southern italy, tbh	04:02
de-facto	oh afaik in Germany one would have to ask the other party prior to doing that (btw quite a good tactic to pressure for flawless behavior when doing some inquiry or such)	04:03
de-facto	recording phone calls i mean	04:03
LjL	i probably don't have to ask, but anyway, i don't care	04:03
LjL	the recordings will stay with me unless there's something outrageous that needs to end up in court	04:04
de-facto	yeah but at least here in .de one could get a huge fine for doing that without consent (probably different in other countries though)	04:05
de-facto	but i agree in general it would be a good thing if such things were recorded hence the blames could be based on the original conversations	04:06
DocScrutinizer05	then otoh, when your are a nurse and come home from hospital/job after 4 days with virtually no sleep, you find a "PISS OFF!" note on your door left there by "friendly" neighbors, then 3 hours later you go back to work and maybe sometimes that person thinks they deserve more reward for the job they do, and they can't deal with phonecalls anymore, and they start acting weird. not unheard of	04:06
DocScrutinizer05	and then there are thieves that always acted like "hmm, this is easy prey"	04:08
DocScrutinizer05	actually I'm surprised how few of those seem to work in medical care	04:09
de-facto	i remember a lot was stolen at the hospital, they even had a safe for the patients most valuable belongings in each room	04:09
de-facto	like for their watches or phones etc	04:10
DocScrutinizer05	phone in safe, that's a win-win. ;-D it won't get stolen and nobody will call in	04:32
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.K. Will Start Immunizing People Against COVID-19 On Tuesday, Officials Say → https://is.gd/w66ZOR	04:37
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +2582 cases (now 587439), +109 deaths (now 17142) since a day ago	04:50
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Biden urges broad action on coronavirus aid after ‘grim’ jobs report → https://is.gd/lDMTCc	05:27
LjL	<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: In two Danish regions, 25% of new covid-19 cases are frrom mink mutations. → https://is.gd/9wyzpm	05:34
LjL	so much for eradicated?	05:34
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: In two Danish regions, 25% of new covid-19 cases are frrom mink mutations. → https://is.gd/pUK24t	05:39
de-facto	%title https://imgur.com/a/TgCYXds https://i.imgur.com/c1oThry.png	05:43
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Test Cap, Test Queue, Tests, Positivity, Cases, ICU beds - Album on Imgur	05:43
de-facto	DocScrutinizer05, made a plot do you think any saturation effects can be seen in this (your statement about R~1 suspiciously precise)?	05:44
de-facto	%title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v2	06:32
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020 \| medRxiv	06:32
de-facto	" Rapidly generated viral genome sequences have allowed the spread of the virus to be tracked via phylogenetic analysis (Hadfield et al., 2018; Pybus et al., 2020; Worobey et al., 2020). While the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced, allowing continent-specific variants to emerge."	06:32
de-facto	"However, within Europe travel resumed in the summer of 2020, and the impact of this travel on the epidemic is not well understood. Here we report on a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20A.EU1, that emerged in Spain in early summer, and subsequently spread to multiple locations in Europe, accounting for the majority of sequences by autumn."	06:32
de-facto	" We find no evidence of increased transmissibility of this variant, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel across Europe, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant’s success. Despite travel restrictions and quarantine requirements, we estimate 20A.EU1 was introduced hundreds of times to countries across Europe by summertime travellers, likely undermining local effort	06:32
de-facto	s to keep SARS-CoV-2 cases low."	06:32
de-facto	"Our results demonstrate how genomic surveillance is critical to understanding how travel can impact SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes."	06:32
de-facto	"20A.EU1 most probably rose in frequency in multiple countries due to travel and difference in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. There is no evidence that it spreads faster."	06:32
de-facto	"There are currently no data to evaluate whether this variant affects the severity of the disease."	06:32
de-facto	"While dominant in some countries, 20A.EU1 has not taken over everywhere and diverse variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to circulate across Europe. 20A.EU1 is not the cause of the European ‘second wave.’"	06:33
de-facto	https://github.com/emmahodcroft/cluster_scripts	06:34
de-facto	%title	06:34
Brainstorm	de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - emmahodcroft/cluster_scripts: Scripts to investigate the SUKS cluster	06:34
KREYREEN	What's the rating on filters beyond FFP3? x.x	06:53
KREYREEN	i am looking at gas masks and they have ABE1, K1, A2, A1..	06:54
KREYREEN	i guess different usecase as they seem to put the FFP3 on top of these O.o	06:54
KREYREEN	where the ABE1 and so on seems to be carbon-based~	06:55
de-facto	i think for gas masks particle filter P3 is equivalent to FFP3	06:59
KREYREEN	de-facto, ye seems that way	07:00
KREYREEN	i am looking if i can overkill it even more atm~	07:00
KREYREEN	without impeding the breathability as i am using that while driving and stuff x.x	07:01
de-facto	i think the European Norm is EN 149:2001+A1:2009	07:01
KREYREEN	it's very comfy~ :3	07:01
KREYREEN	checking	07:01
de-facto	hmm or is it EN 143:2000+A1:2006 ?	07:03
KREYREEN	no idea x.x	07:04
de-facto	e.g. https://www.srsafety.com/products/filter-2440/sr-510-particle-filter-p3-r-h02-1312.html	07:04
KREYREEN	ye i need filters for bayonet mount (the 3M mounting port)	07:05
KREYREEN	x.x	07:05
de-facto	oh thats another system interface (physically)	07:07
KREYREEN	o.o	07:07
de-facto	dont they provide some filters for their interface?	07:08
KREYREEN	there are so many filters x.x	07:08
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +15970 cases (now 1.2 million) since 17 hours ago — Henan, China: +3 cases (now 1295) since a day ago	07:08
KREYREEN	de-facto, afaik the bayonet is standard mount	07:08
KREYREEN	it seems to have too many filters when you look at it on the web x.x	07:09
de-facto	yeah there is a standard indeed but the Sundström have their own system and not follow that standard	07:09
KREYREEN	o.o	07:09
KREYREEN	So whaddya do if i get placed in a room of 50 people coughing like psychopaths with confirmed covid assuming eyes handled~	07:09
de-facto	confirmed covid? id prefer not to go there...	07:10
KREYREEN	de-facto, have to if i want to be a doctor~	07:11
KREYREEN	bcs school~	07:11
KREYREEN	n me no trust in covid vaccine yet~	07:13
de-facto	whats bcs schools?	07:13
KREYREEN	because school~	07:14
KREYREEN	i have to go there on january	07:14
KREYREEN	bcs gov are retarded >.>	07:14
de-facto	i see, well how about going with those masks that medical personal wears on COVID-19 stations?	07:14
KREYREEN	de-facto, ain't safe enough for meh~	07:15
de-facto	at least for those you know how many infected appeared from statistics	07:15
KREYREEN	and less comfy compared to my gas mask~	07:15
de-facto	(not surgical masks, those FFP2 or FFP3 masks they use in combination with their face shields)	07:15
KREYREEN	i hate face shields~	07:15
de-facto	well then find the correct filter for your gas mask	07:16
KREYREEN	and usually these are outside doing the covid testing and they use like 8 L of desinfection per day so i don't see these as valid benchmark	07:16
KREYREEN	de-facto, which one though i hate the FFP3 and i want to add the carbon-based on them x.x	07:17
KREYREEN	ABEK1 seems to highest to filted 10 picometers but covid can be 1 picometer O.o	07:17
KREYREEN	aldo just reduced exposure would be enough with current	07:17
KREYREEN	but i like overkill dammit	07:17
de-facto	you dont need filters for chemicals and acid gases etc	07:17
de-facto	thats not for viruses	07:17
de-facto	read the standards	07:18
KREYREEN	makes me feel safer though~ and it aparently can help agains virus	07:18
KREYREEN	also people put perfumes on them and i see great opportunity to avoid these	07:18
KREYREEN	the one my teacher's using always makes me head spin	07:18
de-facto	ABEK1 is not correct at all	07:19
KREYREEN	how so	07:19
de-facto	its for chemicals	07:20
KREYREEN	why does that matter	07:20
de-facto	omg read about it	07:20
KREYREEN	:c	07:20
de-facto	filters are desinged for specific functions	07:20
KREYREEN	so i need those adapters to combine them together~	07:20
de-facto	its not like "one catches all" they have functionality and mechanisms e.g. neutralizing chemicals, condensing organic vapors, filtering particles etc pp	07:21
de-facto	they even need to be stacked in a specific order	07:21
KREYREEN	whaddya suggest i get for my M3 7500 series mask then	07:21
de-facto	if you know the contamination choose the correct standard and filters to protect against exactly that	07:22
KREYREEN	https://www.3mcesko.cz/3M/cs_CZ/company-ctl/all-3m-products/?N=5002385+8709322+8711017+8711405+8720539+8720550&rt=r3 there is a lot to choose from x.x	07:22
KREYREEN	de-facto, i don't but i assume room full of covid particles	07:22
de-facto	so particles it is then	07:22
KREYREEN	which based on principal saying "covid is hoax" is likely scenario	07:22
de-facto	yeah sounds not like its going to be specifically prevented then	07:23
KREYREEN	they said that they won't do more then gov requires them to do	07:23
KREYREEN	which is how my last school got closed after hosting super spreader event for student tests~	07:24
de-facto	yeah people are stupid	07:24
KREYREEN	natural selection works with these so the overall IQ should rise so me happy about that at least	07:24
de-facto	well not really, because the young in the school bring it home to the vulnerable elderly who die from it then	07:25
de-facto	infection fatality ratio is an exponential of age	07:25
KREYREEN	in czechia the elderly seems to have sense mostly.. e.g. my grandma saying to shoot me if i come anywhere near her during pandemic	07:25
KREYREEN	she doesn't have a gun though so i should be fine	07:25
de-facto	IFR(age) = 100% Exp[ Ln[2] age / 5.75 years ] / 1820	07:25
de-facto	but i am also thinking about how to travel for Christmas my old parents want me to visit them, hence i somehow have to quarantine before and travel with a FFP3 Mask or such	07:27
KREYREEN	i hate christmas and family always forces me to attend it.. but now that it's covid i can stay home so i am quite happy about that	07:27
de-facto	to be honest i am feeling quite uncomfy about it, yet its their wish, so i have to think about how to make it safe or decline their wish	07:30
KREYREEN	i would decline~	07:30
KREYREEN	rather angry parents then dead parents imho	07:31
KREYREEN	aldo i hate mine so~	07:31
de-facto	btw about filter letters there is a table at wiki https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fde.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAtemschutzfilter	07:33
de-facto	KREYREEN, yeah good point hmm :\|	07:34
KREYREEN	de-facto, i still have no idea which one to get x.x	07:35
de-facto	the particle filter one i think	07:36
KREYREEN	but that's what you put at the end of these anyway >.>	07:36
de-facto	"P" for particles filter	07:36
de-facto	so i think (no guarantee) a P3 filter should be fine for this	07:37
KREYREEN	i already have these >.>	07:37
de-facto	yeah but there are no chemical vapors in addition to dried droplet cores particles and virions	07:38
KREYREEN	i am more concerned about those airborne~	07:38
de-facto	not the protection filter but the super fine particle filters themselves	07:38
de-facto	yeah but those are particles not molecules	07:39
KREYREEN	says EN 143:2000 P3 R x.x	07:39
de-facto	(i am no expert though, just guessing)	07:39
de-facto	yeah R for reusable	07:39
KREYREEN	ye~	07:40
de-facto	https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fde.m.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAtemschutzmaske	07:41
KREYREEN	aaaaaaaa	07:41
KREYREEN	https://www.probez.cz/component.php?cocode=catalogue&icid=628&itid=1111599 i guess these are still the best~	07:42
de-facto	oh btw since i read about the electrostatic charging of PP fibers in those filters i am not so convinced thermal disinfection is the best idea anymore (it destroys the charges at some temp)	07:42
KREYREEN	noted O.o	07:42
de-facto	hmm at least in their image they shoe EN143:2000 P3 something	07:46
de-facto	maybe look at 3M website for the correct documents and certs?	07:46
de-facto	like 3M 6035 P3	07:46
de-facto	idk i am no expert in this	07:46
de-facto	basically its all about getting the maximum filter effect (hence protection) out of the cost of air resistance (thats the price to pay for filtering)	07:53
de-facto	hence the necessity to choose exactly the right filter system for the estimated contamination	07:54
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: San Francisco mayor orders strict new lockdowns as pandemic spirals → https://is.gd/llJbS9	08:07
Brainstorm	Updates for Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany: +3375 cases (now 162388), +59 deaths (now 2978) since a day ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +1223 cases (now 115694), +33 deaths (now 2193) since a day ago — Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine: +1106 cases (now 34721), +10 deaths (now 337) since a day ago — Brandenburg, Germany: +796 cases (now 22569), +23 deaths (now 448) since a day ago	08:08
Brainstorm	Updates for Georgia: +5450 cases (now 158154), +37 deaths (now 1462) since a day ago	08:22
euod[m]	de-facto: pity none of the nice 3M masks support filtering the output.	08:41
euod[m]	the half mask I have is so ridiculously comfortable when I'm like, setting stuff on fire.	08:41
jacklsw	which studies say that you can run while wearing facemask	08:42
jacklsw	which facemask type that can be used when running	08:42
jacklsw	you'll get suffocated when the facemask is drenched with sweat	08:43
euod[m]	I don't see why you'd ever have to	08:43
euod[m]	don't like, run near people. easy.	08:43
jacklsw	true	08:43
jacklsw	some studies nowadays are not really intensive	08:43
jacklsw	maybe intensive is not the right word	08:44
jacklsw	if the studies are done in a small sample size, they shouldn't claim it like globally applicable	08:44
euod[m]	that's always going to be the case though.	08:45
euod[m]	down to like, blood groups vary wildly per country and we know that has a huge impact on infection rates.	08:45
jacklsw	ok then i'm gonna lower my expectation on the word 'studies'	08:45
jacklsw	only more convincing if they write it 'proven'	08:46
jacklsw	even 'proven' might not be a strong convincing word too	08:46
EricGrahamMacEac	!cases USA	08:49
CovBot	In United States there have been a total of 14,772,535 cases as of 2020-12-05 07:19:00 UTC. Of these 5,828,103 (39.5%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 8,658,882 (58.6%) have definitely recovered and 285,550 (1.9%) have died.	08:49
gigasu_shida	hi de-facto	08:54
gigasu_shida	blood groups vary wildly by country?	08:55
euod[m]	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_type_distribution_by_country	08:55
gigasu_shida	euod[m]: which countries seem to be more immune to the virus?	08:55
euod[m]	75% O+ in Ecuador, 34.5% in Albania	08:56
euod[m]	* 75% O+ in Ecuador, 34.5% O+ in Albania	08:56
gigasu_shida	has enough data been collected to say that certain countries are naturally more immune?	08:56
euod[m]	well, no. there is evidence to suggest O blood group is appreciably less susceptible. some countries have more O group people than others, therefor it logically follows.	08:57
euod[m]	I messed up there, Pakistan is the lowest at 26% O+.	08:58
gigasu_shida	oh ok	08:58
gigasu_shida	but ecuador and peru got hammered on a percapita basis	08:58
gigasu_shida	so i guess the largest factor is just the social behavior of a country	08:58
euod[m]	I posit that the effect should be observable on some level, not that it's a driving force or anything.	08:58
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 102-year-old woman beats COVID-19 twice → https://is.gd/17QNY8	09:08
Brainstorm	Updates for Russia: +28782 cases (now 2.4 million), +508 deaths (now 42684) since 23 hours ago	09:08
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China conducting biological tests to create super soldiers \| Flash News → https://is.gd/qSJvBN	09:20
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +236364 cases (now 14.8 million), +2700 deaths (now 285610) since 18 hours ago	09:36
Brainstorm	Updates for Estonia: +561 cases (now 14500), +1 deaths (now 126) since 23 hours ago	09:50
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 98.5% success rate: Just 273 of over 20,000 volunteers for Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine trials have subsequently caught Covid-19 → https://is.gd/z6NSBS	10:20
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: China doing biological tests to create ‘super soldiers’, says US intelligence chief → https://is.gd/YVoPdx	10:32
Brainstorm	Updates for Lithuania: +2848 cases (now 72430), +21 deaths (now 611) since a day ago	10:36
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Once hospitalized, Black patients with COVID-19 have lower risk of death than white: While multiple research studies show that Black and Hispanic patients are more likely to test positive for COVID-19, a team of investigators at NYU Langone Health has found that once hospitalized, Black patients (after controlling for other [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/MOOvSy	11:08
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: States submit vaccine orders as coronavirus death toll grows: States faced a deadline on Friday to place orders for the coronavirus vaccine as many reported record infections, hospitalizations and deaths, while hospitals were pushed to the breaking point—with the worst feared yet to come. → https://is.gd/PPrSvv	11:20
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Moscow starts inoculating vulnerable workers against coronavirus: Moscow on Saturday began vaccinating workers at high risk of becoming infected with the coronavirus at newly opened clinics across the city. → https://is.gd/iD034y	11:32
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Canada COVID surge sees 100,000 new cases in two weeks: Canada's second wave of COVID-19 infections has led to 100,000 new cases reported in just the last two weeks, data compiled by public broadcaster CBC showed Friday. → https://is.gd/KLRyLN	11:44
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: Matthew Perry launches ‘Chandler Bing’ merchandise collection for COVID-19 charity → https://is.gd/wHrY5S	12:21
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Argentina has passed a new tax on its wealthiest people to pay for medical supplies and relief measures amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/adRylD	12:44
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: First Opinion: Opinion: Women’s perspectives and voices need more inclusion in Covid-19 media coverage → https://is.gd/xEq9cb	13:09
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +237930 cases (now 14.8 million), +2758 deaths (now 285668) since 22 hours ago	13:36
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Coronavirus: Russia rolls out COVID vaccination in Moscow → https://is.gd/04y0qZ	13:46
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: Avocados are the ‘pandemic-proof’ crop in lockdown health craze → https://is.gd/K3CSeA	13:58
Brainstorm	Updates for Denmark: +1853 cases (now 88858), +11 deaths (now 878) since 6 hours ago — Switzerland: +71 deaths (now 5314) since 23 hours ago	14:08
Brainstorm	Updates for Sudan: +661 cases (now 19196), +19 deaths (now 1290) since a day ago	14:22
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): Global COVID Cases For 05DEC20: Summary As Of: 05DEC @ 12:34 GMT Countries 218 + 2 Cases Cases Deaths Deaths Recovered Rcvrd Active Cases 18,638,758 Countries reporting new cases in this update: 69 Countries reporting new deaths in this update: 49 w/Active cases w/No Active cases w/All cases rcvrd Cntry’s 211 2 5 Cases [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ftuiMY	14:23
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +6521 cases (now 550445) since a day ago	14:36
atsbomb	%cases singapore	14:42
Brainstorm	atsbomb: In Singapore, there have been 58255 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 29 deaths (0.0% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 5.9 million tests were performed (1.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Singapore for time series data.	14:42
Brainstorm	New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 5 dicembre 2020: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. Modifica dellaclassificazione delle Regioni Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia,Marche, Puglia e Umbria. (20A06783) → https://is.gd/8PRZTT	14:48
Brainstorm	Updates for Belarus: +1896 cases (now 145279), +8 deaths (now 1198) since a day ago	14:50
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - December 05 \| Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/BKsy6C	15:00
Brainstorm	Updates for Virginia, US: +3793 cases (now 251173), +37 deaths (now 4197) since a day ago — Germany: +391 deaths (now 18719) since a day ago	15:08
DocScrutinizer05	>><de-facto> DocScrutinizer05, made a plot do you think any saturation effects can be seen in this<< actually nope, my naive glance at it doen't give me ideas. Looks like R=~1 since we hit the bulls eye with our NPI	15:37
DocScrutinizer05	It's hardly imaginable how a complete nation could keep R_eff=1 for almost 5 weeks but seems we really did	15:38
DocScrutinizer05	there's sort of "automatic negative feedback" e.g. in the different hotspot thresholds )50, 100, 200, I forgot, /100k7d) which may auto-stabilize R at a certain level	15:41
DocScrutinizer05	since this is a proprtional feedback with a little bit integral and differential component of a PID feedback regulation, it might work pretty well to keep the input gain at exactly 1	15:43
DocScrutinizer05	alas it also means it is completely inapt to bring R_eff to <1	15:56
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Iran's coronavirus deaths surpass 50,000 - health ministry → https://is.gd/6jysOA	16:02
Brainstorm	Updates for Albania: +846 cases (now 42148), +19 deaths (now 889) since a day ago	16:22
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 54% of Americans know someone who has died or been hospitalized: Survey → https://is.gd/p4HAaF	16:26
Brainstorm	Updates for Moldova: +1728 cases (now 115557), +19 deaths (now 2403) since 23 hours ago	16:36
DocScrutinizer05	we got a closed loop regulation system, with a loop gain named R_eff. In a closed loop regulator with only proportional feedback (attenuation = incindeces * NPI-efficiency-constant) the total loop gain will _always_ get regulated to exactly 1	16:41
DocScrutinizer05	in other words, the 100k7d incidences will adjust to a level where the resulting interventions cause the total loop gaion R_eff to be exactly 1	16:43
DocScrutinizer05	s.gaion.gain.	16:44
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c	16:51
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid: NHS rapid test use defended amid accuracy concerns: The tests introduced in England's tier-three areas are a "game-changer", a senior NHS adviser says. → https://is.gd/pw1Wzv	17:03
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c	17:16
Brainstorm	Updates for United Kingdom: +15539 cases (now 1.7 million), +397 deaths (now 61014) since 23 hours ago	17:22
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Bryan Cranston says he still hasn’t recovered sense of taste or smell after coronavirus (10458 votes) \| https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/bryan-cranston-coronavirus-taste-smell-recovery-b1766673.html \| https://redd.it/k762ua	17:23
Brainstorm	Updates for South Carolina, US: +3222 cases (now 229235), +21 deaths (now 4517) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +7066 cases (now 406462), +104 deaths (now 12564) since 23 hours ago	17:36
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid: NHS rapid test use defended amid accuracy concerns: The tests introduced in England's tier-three areas are a "game-changer", a senior NHS adviser says. → https://is.gd/pw1Wzv	17:53
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Higher viral loads in asymptomatic COVID-19 patients might be the invisible part of the iceberg (80 votes) \| https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s15010-020-01548-8 \| https://redd.it/k6xbt2	17:53
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: THE THERAPEUTIC POTENTIAL OF IVERMECTIN FOR COVID-19: A REVIEW OF MECHANISMS AND EVIDENCE (80 votes) \| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.30.20236570v1 \| https://redd.it/k76dnp	18:29
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US accounts for one-third of global daily coronavirus cases → https://is.gd/obQLzu	18:42
Brainstorm	Updates for Arizona, US: +6799 cases (now 358900), +40 deaths (now 6925) since a day ago	18:50
Brainstorm	Updates for Nevada, US: +3205 cases (now 165628) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +21052 cases (now 1.7 million), +662 deaths (now 59514) since a day ago	19:08
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Moscow opens dozens of coronavirus vaccination centers: Thousands of doctors, teachers and others in high-risk groups have signed up for COVID-19 vaccinations in Moscow starting Saturday, a precursor to a sweeping Russia-wide immunization effort. → https://is.gd/PxvPqL	19:19
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: first sketchy draft https://tinyurl.com/yyh7t2ma	19:26
DocScrutinizer05	:-D	19:27
DocScrutinizer05	sorry, to see the actual hotspot threshold values you got to doubleclick the schmitt trigger that highlights when you hover over the sliders	19:28
DocScrutinizer05	you may consider voltage levels as 1mV=1incidence/100k7d, or any other scaling factor you like	19:33
DocScrutinizer05	the "masks", "social distancing" and "hotspot1" elements are all "attenuators" aka NPI and with the sliders you adjust their total effectiveness	19:34
Brainstorm	Updates for Mali: +124 cases (now 5062) since 20 hours ago	19:36
DocScrutinizer05	with a total loop gain aka R_eff aka R_0 * NPI1 (masks) * NPI2 (distancing) * average_NPI3 (HS1) of >1 the system runs into saturation (15V here). with <1 it decays to a very low level determined by "import cases". In a certain range the negative characteristics of the hotspot element will adjust the total loop gain aka R_eff to exactly 1 and the voltage level aka incidences stay at a steady high level	19:41
DocScrutinizer05	s/ negative characteristics / inverting nonlinearity /	19:44
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c	19:55
DocScrutinizer05	improved https://tinyurl.com/y5semv5f	20:05
de-facto	heh thats an interesting approach to model that, i wish politicians would stick to their own rules as physics does though	20:09
de-facto	like all of them simply just ignored thresholdslike 50/100k weekly for lockdown etc	20:09
de-facto	yet even having such incidence thresholds is a flawed concept as it encourages all regions to aim for a 50/100k weekly incidence, otherwise they would not be "optimal"	20:15
de-facto	this is complete nonsense actually when thinking bout it one would need a relative metric that always encourages containment of transmission	20:15
Brainstorm	Updates for Jersey: +91 cases (now 1261) since a day ago	20:22
de-facto	interesting to play around with http://www.shodor.org/featured/DiseaseModel/JavaScript	20:30
de-facto	i also know there are some other online platforms to model epidemics but i dont remember their hostname anymore	20:31
de-facto	something that looked a bit like GNURadio	20:36
Brainstorm	Updates for Cyprus: +369 cases (now 12181) since 20 hours ago	20:36
de-facto	dang i wish i had saved that URL back then	20:39
Brainstorm	New from "COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark" on Wikipedia: Simuliid: /* Statistics */: Statistics ← Previous revision Revision as of 19:31, 5 December 2020 Line 213: Line 213: {{-}} {{-}} + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark new cases chart}} − {{Graph:Chart + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark new deaths chart}} − \|type=rect − [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/58UIK3	20:44
Brainstorm	Updates for West Virginia, US: +1400 cases (now 53572), +30 deaths (now 829) since a day ago	20:50
de-facto	also interesting https://idmod.org/tools https://covid.idmod.org/#/Covasim	20:52
Brainstorm	New from "COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark" on Wikipedia: Simuliid: /* Statistics */: Statistics ← Previous revision Revision as of 19:54, 5 December 2020 Line 183: Line 183: {{-}} {{-}} {{-}} {{-}} + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark cases by age chart}} − {{Graph:Chart + {{Template:COVID-19 pandemic data/Denmark deaths by age chart}} − [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/58UIK3	20:56
de-facto	another this time client-server based simulator http://www.gleamviz.org/simulator/client/	20:56
de-facto	https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-11-37	20:58
de-facto	another in JS https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html	20:59
de-facto	that one is really neat ^^ LjL	21:01
Brainstorm	Updates for Mauritania: +178 cases (now 9359), +2 deaths (now 184) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +5605 cases (now 406839), +113 deaths (now 12583) since 21 hours ago	21:08
derpadmin	%cases us	21:15
Brainstorm	derpadmin: In US, there have been 14.9 million confirmed cases (4.5% of the population) and 287221 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 11 minutes ago. 203.6 million tests were performed (7.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.	21:15
euod[m]	0.0956% of the population for the US now.	21:16
euod[m]	well, 0.0875 if I use the real population number without rounding up.	21:17
euod[m]	* well, 0.0875 if I use the real population number without rounding down.	21:17
derpadmin	small percentages on big numbers = big numbers	21:18
derpadmin	it is sad	21:18
Brainstorm	Updates for Niger: +107 cases (now 1789) since 23 hours ago	21:22
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: much more improvement, https://tinyurl.com/y37o9b2w try the "masks" slider" and the "hotspot1 threshold" slider	21:25
de-facto	neat :)	21:27
de-facto	quite a creative approach to model this, even could be done with real HW that way :))	21:28
DocScrutinizer05	>>incidence thresholds is a flawed concept as it encourages all regions to aim for a 50/100k<< well actually the way hotspots establish harder NPI as soon as the threshold gets tripped already DOES ensure that the incidence will self-adjust to that level plus a few	21:28
DocScrutinizer05	that's the whole point of my sim	21:28
de-facto	yes i know so its flawed already if politicians would honor their own "red traffic light" they agreed upon	21:29
DocScrutinizer05	technically what we got is a proportional regulator system. What we NEED is an integral regulator system, or even a PID (proportional integral differential) system	21:31
de-facto	derpadmin, euod[m] estimates for the "dark number" for USA (meaning the infected that were not detected with tests and reported to end up in official numbers) suggest up to 8-fold the incidence hence may mean like 33% of US population or such https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389	21:32
de-facto	%title	21:32
Brainstorm	de-facto: From academic.oup.com: Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020 \| Clinical Infectious Diseases \| Oxford Academic	21:32
derpadmin	seems plausible	21:33
euod[m]	de-facto: that's why I was focusing on the deaths number, which doesn't need as much care in reporting. there's obviously people not being reported as a COVID death, but it's better than the number for infections.	21:33
derpadmin	I am pretty sure I got it asymptomatic	21:33
de-facto	its pretty crazy that would mean like 100M may have had it already in US	21:34
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘If you don’t think Covid is real, you’re an idiot,’ says Canadian politician → https://is.gd/zXX4Tk	21:46
DocScrutinizer05	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PID_controller	21:54
DocScrutinizer05	>>Using proportional control alone will result in an error between the setpoint and the actual process value, because it requires an error to generate the proportional response. If there is no error, there is no corrective response.<<	21:58
DocScrutinizer05	in our case, this error are a 20000 new infections every day	21:58
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Covid-19 deaths could nearly double by April despite rollout of vaccines, report warns: Health researchers said that the expected vaccine rollout only reduces the death toll by 9,000 before April 1 and said a rapid rollout targeting high-risk people could save 14,000 more lives. → https://is.gd/8imKTX	22:01
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +31 deaths (now 5324) since 20 hours ago	22:08
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Covid is killing more than 2,000 people a day in the U.S. as infections and hospitalizations hit records → https://is.gd/q0Ci1c	22:15
Jigsy	3>To my understanding, the vaccine won’t prevent you from getting covid 19 or even spreading it, it works to prevent symptoms from the infected individual.	22:22
Jigsy	Eh?	22:22
de-facto	afaik even the mRNA vaccines are hoped (with reasons from animal trials) but not guaranteed to create sterilizing (preventing transmission) immunity	22:49
Jigsy	So basically it's meant to make it harmless?	22:55
Jigsy	E.g. "You'll still get it, but you won't die."	22:55
de-facto	no its meant to prevent infections as well as transmissions too	23:07
de-facto	animal trials give hope that will be possible %title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2024671	23:08
de-facto	%title	23:09
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Evaluation of the mRNA-1273 Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Nonhuman Primates \| NEJM	23:09
de-facto	If Reproduction Number R = Transmissibility * ContactRate * DurationOfInfectiousness then each of those can be reduced independently and smoothly: 1) Transmissibility by viral load (initial infection dose, level of immunity) as well as non-pharmaceutical measures (masks, distance, hygiene etc) 2) ContactRates by Lockdown and reduction to the minimum necessary	23:10
de-facto	3) DurationOfInfectiousness may be reduced even with no perfect immunity hence also depend on level of immunity	23:10
de-facto	So essentially vaccination might bring down both Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness hence introduce an efficiency factor like (1 - v * e) into that R = R0 * (1 - v * e) hence 100% susceptible minus proportion of vaccinated people v multiplied by the vaccines efficientcy e to reduce Transmissibility and DurationOfInfectiousness	23:11
de-facto	Hence the proportion of vaccinated would be given by v = (R0 - 1) / (e * R0)	23:11
de-facto	essentially what i want to say is that its not black and white, every efficiency e > 0 already helps to bring down Reproduction Number R	23:11
de-facto	but since it a product e * v it means that the threshold for endemic transition can be missed by both, either too low vaccination participation v or even be impossible if efficiency e is too low for a given R0	23:11
de-facto	%title https://imgur.com/a/povdb5p https://i.imgur.com/ADFDXMN.png	23:11
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: VACCINATION: Endemic State R = R0 (1 - v e) = 1 for vaccinated v with efficiency e with R0 = 2.0 ... 5.0 in steps of 0.1 - Album on Imgur	23:11
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: COVID-19—Lessons Learned and Questions Remaining (80 votes) \| https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1654/5940148 \| https://redd.it/k7bpte	23:12
de-facto	also the time evolution of immunity might play a significant role on long term	23:14
de-facto	%title https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2032195	23:14
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Durability of Responses after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273 Vaccination \| NEJM	23:14
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pandemic has Canadian nurses, PSWs suffering high COVID infection rate, job stress \| "We now find in the midst of one of the worst occupational health and safety disasters in modern memory, that these workers have been systematically denied the most basic protections and their legal rights" → https://is.gd/NUpylC	23:57

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