| Brainstorm | Updates for Slovakia: +3707 cases (now 130794), +26 deaths (now 1148) since a day ago | 00:06 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Country singer Charley Pride dead from coronavirus at 86 → https://is.gd/YGwLJ9 | 00:29 |
| ryouma | angioedema would be considered a severe (life-threatening, minutes to live) reaction, and i have it, and it is triggered by substances in most cases in my case, but i don't know if it is considered an allergy per se. and i don't know if that applies to the vaccine. | 00:57 |
| ryouma | and i don't know who to ask, and i don't know if my doctor knows who to ask | 00:59 |
| ryouma | on the .au news, is producing hiv false positives a problem in all cases? couldn't there be a place for that vaccine? | 00:59 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/mhJOXdX https://i.imgur.com/6vuyUOx.jpeg | 01:01 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine - Album on Imgur | 01:01 |
| de-facto | After dilution, vial contains 5 dose of 0.3 ml. For intramuscular use. Contains no preservation. For use under Emergency Use Authorization. DILUTE BEFORE USE. Discard 6 hours after dilution when stored at 2 to 25 °C (35 to 77°F). Dilution date and time: | 01:03 |
| de-facto | so if each dose contains 30µg mRNA a vial would contain 150 µg of mRNA then | 01:06 |
| de-facto | Probably looks a bit like a whitish emulsion after dilution with saline water | 01:06 |
| ryouma | not to mention, could it be useful as an hiv vaccine at all if it produces antobodies? | 01:10 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine.html | 01:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nytimes.com: How the Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Works - The New York Times | 01:10 |
| de-facto | nice graphics illustrating it :) | 01:10 |
| de-facto | actually its a really nice summary | 01:15 |
| LjL | ryouma, i'm not sure if they know yet *why* it's causing HIV tests to return positive. they'd have to look at what antibodies are actually being produced. but anyway even if HIV-specific antibodies were being produced, HIV being a retrovirus could still make them useless i guess. | 01:16 |
| LjL | <CoronaBot> /r/coronavirus: If you need proof that masks/social distancing/hand sanitiser work, Ireland has had no recorded cases of flu yet this season. (1010 votes) | 01:16 |
| LjL | <CoronaBot> https://www.thejournal.ie/winter-flu-cases-ireland-2020-5296226-Dec2020/?fbclid=IwAR0Dgolwpddm8eNriq4fJ71hM8PM5srYxjRk07oFdCwqGk2xmgH0Net-H2s | https://redd.it/kbv1gt | 01:16 |
| LjL | given this being true... i wonder if it really is a good idea for my parents to go to a clinic and get a flu shot | 01:17 |
| metreo | .cases canada | 01:17 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: In Canada, there have been 454392 confirmed cases (1.2% of the population) and 13339 deaths (2.9% of cases) as of an hour ago. 12.4 million tests were performed (3.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. | 01:17 |
| LjL | in late december, and not at their GP's (because she won't have enough doses) | 01:17 |
| LjL | i wonder how the chances of fending off a bad flu balance out with the chances of getting COVID in the process | 01:17 |
| ryouma | i can guess that antibodies would not work against hiv but why because it is a retrovirus. i am aware of retrovirus replication. just don't see why antibodies would a priori not work. | 01:18 |
| LjL | ryouma, i said "i guess", i didn't say they would not work a priori. but the reason i have in mind is that as soon as the virus infects a few cells, those cells will keep making more virus, and if they're allowed to replicate, *those* cells will also produce more virus, so... you'd have to have aggressive-enough antibodies that they would get rid of the virus *entirely* when you come in contact with it. all of it, and quickly | 01:19 |
| ryouma | are the lipids in the vaccine or vaccines known to be food-related at all? if so, which foods? | 01:19 |
| de-facto | according to the rki we had like 25 flu cases per week on Germany? https://survstat.rki.de/Content/Query/Select.aspx | 01:20 |
| LjL | also, i know inactivated HIV is used for a number of clinically useful things. if an HIV vaccine can work, why not just inject that? i just assume a naive approach to HIV vaccination doesn't work, or it would be working | 01:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, that doesn't sound like a lot for December | 01:20 |
| ryouma | i was thinking of the case where one is infected and because the native and antibodies are there, the virus doe snot get to infect any cells that don't get dealt with by the immune system. or if it does, it keeps the infection down. | 01:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Panama: +2806 cases (now 190585), +22 deaths (now 3331) since a day ago | 01:20 |
| ryouma | just curious why specifically it would not be useful | 01:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +6890 cases (now 2.4 million) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +6819 cases (now 604032), +43 deaths (now 10035) since 22 hours ago — Switzerland: +16 deaths (now 5976) since 14 hours ago | 01:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: >>i wonder if it really is a good idea for my parents to go to a clinic and get a flu shot i wonder how the chances of fending off a bad flu balance out with the chances of getting COVID in the process<< consider this: the protection against covid and the protection against flu by NPI go hand in hand. And the risk to catch covid in a clinic is probably lower than anywhere else, at least it *ought* to be. So if you're concerned | 01:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | about covid you should probably get a flu shot since you'll either catch both or none, potentially | 01:48 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, NPI? also, my sister went to a clinic for unrelated reasons, and they had one entrance and one waiting room for people doing a COVID test, and for everyone else | 01:49 |
| LjL | so i wouldn't place my bets on "ought to be" | 01:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yeah, that's basically a total nogo | 01:50 |
| LjL | and yet she couldn't really have known that beforehand | 01:50 |
| LjL | not easily anyway | 01:50 |
| LjL | i mean, right now, for all i know, COVID is much more common than the flu | 01:51 |
| LjL | and last year the flu *stayed* uncommon through lockdown | 01:51 |
| LjL | (by last year i mean 2020 anyway) | 01:51 |
| de-facto | Influenza got really low incidence still and afaik similar reproduction number (or even lower on average, there always can be exceptions by mutations) than SARS-COV-2, so as long as vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 would not allow for lifting most NPI containment measures i would expect the Influenza to not really spread this year. But i may be wrong on that, its just my speculation | 01:57 |
| de-facto | So if the same NPI would hold Influenza endemic at that low incidence probability of infection might be quite low this winter | 01:58 |
| de-facto | %title https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1741-7015-7-30 | 02:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com: Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1) | BMC Medicine | Full Text | 02:00 |
| de-facto | "The R 0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R 0 estimated for the 1918–1919 pandemic strain (mean R 0~2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R 0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R 0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1)" | 02:00 |
| LjL | so... it's not crazy influenza but it *is* normal influenza? | 02:01 |
| LjL | also is that an estimate of R0 with NPI or R0 in a population going about their normal business | 02:02 |
| de-facto | So if R0_influenza < R0_sars-cov-2 and both use the same transmission paths with high incidence of SARS-CoV-2 requiring more than enough NPI to contain also Influenza, how could it ever reproduce this winter? | 02:02 |
| de-facto | That paper was from 2009, just to illustrate the range of R0 for INfluenza | 02:03 |
| LjL | oh | 02:03 |
| LjL | anyway, i guess i'm unlikely to change my parents' mind | 02:04 |
| LjL | and it would be quite a responsibility to, as well | 02:04 |
| de-facto | not sure what the reproduction number of this years influenza strains would be, but i would expect them to be in a similar range | 02:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: LjL: I agree regarding "sync" between covid and flu incidences and NPI. A flu shot is a brilliant idea nevertheless as long as you take no higher than usual risk at all for getting it | 02:05 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, well, going to a clinic is by definition higher risk than just staying at home | 02:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | depends. "Satying at home" is probably not an option for anybody. As long as the risk at clinic is not higher than that in grocery, I'd go for it by all means | 02:06 |
| de-facto | and of course all this is probabilistic, so getting a flu shot really does lower the probability to die from *flu* yet that would have to be balanced against getting infected with SARS-COV-2 indeed | 02:06 |
| de-facto | cant they wear a gas mask or some really good protection? | 02:07 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, well i'm not talking about anybody, i'm talking about my parents. and they don't shop for groceries, they order it online. | 02:07 |
| LjL | de-facto, lol... no. | 02:07 |
| de-facto | like assuming in advance they WILL get exposed to SARS-CoV-2 aerosol there? | 02:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | then they probably are better off staying at home | 02:07 |
| LjL | i'm more likely to convince them not to go at all than to wear something they'd find absurd | 02:07 |
| de-facto | my parents got their flu shot a month ago or such, they said they had to wait outdoors at their normal doctors place | 02:08 |
| de-facto | not in the hospital | 02:08 |
| LjL | and the only "normal" protection we have available are these really lousy KN95 masks, maybe, *maybe*, i can convince them to wear a surgical mask over it, but last time i mentioned that they got mad | 02:08 |
| de-facto | there was a huge queue outdoors and they were freezing, but finally after some hours they got their shot | 02:08 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes, but for a change, Lombardy fucked up, and they haven't bought enough flu shots for the normal doctors, and last time my parents called the normal doctor, she said she felt ashamed of herself having to tell her patients that she can't give them the usual flu shot | 02:09 |
| LjL | well at least our normal doctors would have given them an appointment, IF she had had the vaccine :P | 02:10 |
| de-facto | hmm | 02:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's what I assumed: normal doctor of your trust | 02:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry to hear the situation is so fubar at your place | 02:11 |
| LjL | well our normal doctor doesn't operate in a clinic, she operates in her apartment | 02:11 |
| LjL | well her office | 02:11 |
| LjL | but it's an apartment | 02:11 |
| de-facto | last time I insisted to wait outdoors because they refused to open windows in their waiting rooms at my normal doctors | 02:12 |
| de-facto | they were a bit annoyed, well me too acutally | 02:12 |
| LjL | you mentioned | 02:13 |
| LjL | they may probably have issues with the people who live in the building if they have people waiting outdoor and it's an apartment building | 02:13 |
| de-facto | but im a weirdo, i dont care what they think about me | 02:13 |
| de-facto | yeah indeed but then they always can have a proper air hygiene concept installed instead then | 02:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the risk to catch flu sems damn low recently. So it's not worth taking any risk for it. The risk for your life WHEN you catch a flu right now is rather high ebven without immediate concurent covid, since... treatment, bla etc, so if you can get a flu shot without taking significant risk during this procedure, by all means try to get it | 02:14 |
| LjL | to be honest, if i had a doctor in my building, with people queuing outside waiting for their flu shot... well i'd probably say nothing, but i wouldn't be very happy | 02:14 |
| LjL | i think i'll try to convince them to wear double mask | 02:15 |
| LjL | KN95+surgical | 02:15 |
| de-facto | FFP2/3 with really right fit might suffice | 02:16 |
| LjL | de-facto, when i went to the dentist the other day, the metal strip in my "FPP2" almost came off | 02:16 |
| LjL | that's the quality of the stuff we get | 02:16 |
| de-facto | the tight fit is of stellar importance though, no beard allowed on the skin where it could prevent airtight fit | 02:16 |
| LjL | only way to get a tight fit would be to glue it | 02:16 |
| LjL | yeah my dad has a beard too | 02:17 |
| de-facto | so he must shave for tight fit | 02:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: would you want to mail order proper FFP3? | 02:17 |
| LjL | but i really can't imagine *these* masks we have providing an airtight fit, beard or no beard | 02:17 |
| de-facto | without airtight fit the protection could not work | 02:18 |
| de-facto | at least not up to the level that it is expected to perform with its filter capabilities | 02:18 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, not currently. during december our postal system is completely unreliable the closer we get to christmas | 02:18 |
| LjL | it's more likely for things to NOT get delivered than to get delivered | 02:19 |
| de-facto | wow. | 02:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I still ponder how to DIY improve the "airtight seal" of my FFP3. Maybe gluing some elastic foam tape or whatever along the rim | 02:19 |
| LjL | "foam" may let air through | 02:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: let me know when it improves again. I could even get you some FFP3 and send it to you per mail, once this works again at your side | 02:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, anyway i'm sure you've seen these KN95 masks that come folded. there is really no sensible way of shaping the nose strip so that it's actually airtight. maybe in theory, in a perfect environment, with lots of patience... you can get it fit enough for certification. not in real life. | 02:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: >> "foam" may let air through<< depends on the type of foam | 02:21 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, alright, thanks for the offer | 02:21 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, yes, i guess so. i'm just thinking foam is a porous material so beware of air getting through. but if you know you're getting something that will work, then i'll say nothing | 02:22 |
| de-facto | LjL, I have some FFP3 that fold like this, they got a foam "sponge" at their inside of the nose part to make a comfortable and tight fit | 02:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | got me those https://www.telle.de/arbeitsschutz/persoenliche-schutzausruestung/atemschutz/produkt/detail/draeger-partikelfiltrierende-halbmasken/ Dräger X-plore 1730 FFP3 NR D bestellnummer 39 51 086 -verpackungseinheit:20 €121,74 incl MwSt | 02:22 |
| LjL | another thing about FPP2 masks is they don't work well (or at all) when they get wet, i'm told, but... 1) i can't stop rain 2) unless i always walk very calmly and slowly, well, last time i wore one, eventually it was humid inside and almost dripping | 02:22 |
| LjL | 20 for €120? that's well not cheap | 02:23 |
| LjL | also, they have a valve? that's not allowed in a few places here | 02:23 |
| de-facto | thats why the ones with vent may prevent too fast buildup of humidity | 02:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's kinda normal price these days. The 3M auro are 3 times this | 02:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | nope, no valve | 02:24 |
| de-facto | I bought 12 FFP3 masks "single use" but i still use the first of that package :P | 02:24 |
| de-facto | yeah not correct but it works still fine | 02:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | same here | 02:25 |
| de-facto | i never touch the fabric and just hang it on my shelve to dry | 02:25 |
| LjL | i hang them on the balcony | 02:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | iirc the vented version is 17xx+, I got the 1730 without + | 02:26 |
| LjL | but sometimes i touch the fabric. i try to touch the part above the nose that likely never gets any real air inflow, but i find it unavoidable to avoid touching it altogether. | 02:26 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, alright, i just based it on the pictures on the site | 02:27 |
| LjL | i've got nothing against masks with valves personally, i think banning them is a bit overzealous... but well, clinics and hospitals may sometimes insist that you wear a surgical mask, nothing else, and definitely nothing with a valve :\ | 02:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | xx10|20|30 is FFP1|2|3, the + means "with valve" | 02:28 |
| de-facto | i also send my parents a pack of 12 FFP3 masks, i hope they will wear them, acutally they complained about their "too tight" fit, i cant force them, but at least they are there and they can use them | 02:28 |
| de-facto | FFP3 with valves | 02:29 |
| de-facto | pretty similar to the ones DocScrutinizer05 linked but with valve | 02:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 3M auro has a vented FFP with additional fabric covering the valve | 02:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | alas cost more than gold, like 25€ per mask | 02:30 |
| de-facto | crazy | 02:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | with hologram to prove genuine certified stuff etc. And the auro is the rolls royce, still it's insane for a disposable mask | 02:31 |
| de-facto | my father also got a beard, i urged him into shaving it for tight fit, but i dont know if he did it actually | 02:33 |
| de-facto | i cant force him | 02:34 |
| ryouma | you can tape the valve. i wonder if doctors would accept that. | 02:35 |
| ryouma | you can also tape the mask to your face | 02:35 |
| de-facto | how to confirm, everyone could just state "yeah relax its taped inside, i just cant show you right now" | 02:35 |
| de-facto | tape on a beard? well good luck with that ... | 02:36 |
| ryouma | you tape the outside of the valve | 02:37 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, thats not airtight then | 02:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the tightness is an issue left and right of the nose. And only there | 02:38 |
| de-facto | with shaved i mean the mask "lip" or "edge" sitting on skin | 02:38 |
| de-facto | does it have a foam inside? | 02:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 02:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | but I think this could be thicker and all around the rim of complete mask | 02:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I manage to fit the mask airtight, but it's annoying effort and it presses on my node when it's tight, so my nose also tends to be "tight" | 02:40 |
| de-facto | hmm maybe one can improve that with some soft but closed pores foam to glue it onto the right places? | 02:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | s.node.nose. | 02:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's exactly my idea, yes | 02:41 |
| de-facto | yet afaik the airtight fit is part of the certification process, so it should be possible for a shaved standard face to get a somewhat airtight fit with the stock state | 02:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it is possible but annoying and uncomfortable | 02:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | even with short beard it's possoble | 02:42 |
| de-facto | i doubt that it really can be airtight with short beard but ok | 02:42 |
| de-facto | that is on the mask edge, inside the mask it does not matter of course | 02:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | one of the "tricks" you need to know it unbending the "fold" in the metal tab on the node, nobody has a V-shaped cross section nose, like a roof | 02:43 |
| de-facto | yep makes sense | 02:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | beard hair is what, a 0.02mm thick? and will get pressed into the skin surface. It's no problem | 02:44 |
| LjL | i'm not sure about FFP2/3, but with N95 the fit is *not* part of the certification process | 02:44 |
| LjL | eh maybe 0.2mm? | 02:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | FFP3 cerrt includes leakage | 02:45 |
| de-facto | but depending on the pressure and amount if beard hairs it may prevent the mask edge to reach the skin surface for airtight fit all together | 02:45 |
| de-facto | we are not talking about one hair, but a full face beard or such | 02:45 |
| de-facto | and that really probably would prevent the mask edge to touch the skin for airtight fit just because of the amount or number of hairs | 02:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, I test each mask until it fits airtight, and this works when I finally managed to make it fit | 02:46 |
| de-facto | how do you know if its airtight? | 02:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you follow the test procedure as given in the mask instruction paper | 02:47 |
| de-facto | hmm which would be? | 02:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | on masks without valve, you breathe out air rapidly and check for any "air jets" | 02:48 |
| de-facto | like in a smoky room or such? | 02:48 |
| de-facto | how could you see leakage if not by movement of particles? | 02:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | or outside, using glasses and see if they get steamed | 02:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | or, if you got sensible fingers, you even can feel it | 02:50 |
| de-facto | of course major leakage could be recognized by air-jets or steamed glasses, but what about not so localized yet still present leakage (across beard hairs for example)? | 02:50 |
| de-facto | wet fingers well yeah but that also only would recognize major leaks | 02:51 |
| de-facto | i still think shaving off a beard on the edge of a mask for airtight fit is required | 02:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +4 cases (now 2096) since a day ago | 02:52 |
| ryouma | medical silicone half faceplate masks can have multiple flanges that are useful | 02:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you're free to think and do that, and you're in line with the operation manual that requires it. I for my personal use found it's not necessary for *my* beard, which is 5mm short and thin hairs | 02:55 |
| de-facto | sure, its everyone's own decision (as is which type of mask to choose) | 02:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | pro tip: the manual requires covering the mask during blowing into/through it to check for leaks, but that's a tad tricky to do with your hands like instructed by manual. So a fitting patch of plastic foil from those ultra thin plastic bags placed inside the mask for test will come in very handy | 02:58 |
| de-facto | oh thats a very good idea indeed | 02:58 |
| de-facto | (i have to admit i did not read the manual, as i never do, not even for meds) | 02:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | a plastic foil patch, unlike your hands, will not add mechanical force pressure to the mask which forces it more to your skin | 02:59 |
| de-facto | yep and plastic foil is airtight, so one should be able to estimate tightness of fit purely by the amount of air that is able to go out | 03:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it will even reduce the pressure force by elastic string when you blow, so you can detect leaks pretty good | 03:00 |
| de-facto | yep thats a really good idea | 03:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | thanks :-) | 03:01 |
| de-facto | btw on another topic: fatalities reported by the RKI, they have those daily new cases of ~500 or such | 03:02 |
| de-facto | now when i distribute their data similar to the positive testing i got a max peak of 389 at Nov 18th | 03:02 |
| de-facto | the total sum matches the one from RKI portal | 03:03 |
| de-facto | does that simply mean those ~500 end up raising all days in the distribution by scattering over all more recent days? | 03:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | oooh, I intended to add this to my statistics but been too lazy so far. Very interesting | 03:03 |
| de-facto | i am a bit confused about this, always thinking i might have done something wrong | 03:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and now I remember why I didn't add it from beginning: it's unclear how "fatality" record is date-stamped | 03:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it was back then at least, to me | 03:06 |
| de-facto | so my data adds up fatalities to 21466 (exactly as the total from corona.rki.de) | 03:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | to give an example, I don't know for sure if one of the dates for the fatality record is referring to the date of death or the date of diagnosis of disease | 03:07 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/F3uZ4rL https://i.imgur.com/0gqq4SG.png | 03:07 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Fatalities - Album on Imgur | 03:07 |
| de-facto | but why does it look like this then? | 03:07 |
| de-facto | i think i did use exactly the same booleans as for cases | 03:08 |
| de-facto | brb | 03:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hmm, that's like... don't know, delay from first symtoms to death? | 03:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the curve would be absolutely plausible if the timestamp used is diagnose date, nit repporting or death date | 03:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | not* | 03:10 |
| snake | my dr's office is closing | 03:12 |
| snake | i had the best doctor ever and now i have to find a new one | 03:12 |
| LjL | :( | 03:23 |
| de-facto | I think i use Meldedatum | 03:23 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, hmm so Referenzdatum or Meldedatum? | 03:31 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/f5VWucK https://i.imgur.com/Knr9s05.png | 03:35 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: fatalities from Refdatum - Album on Imgur | 03:35 |
| de-facto | ^^this is Refdatum instead of Meldedatum (as in the post before) | 03:35 |
| de-facto | looks more or less the same (with tiny time differences) | 03:36 |
| de-facto | https://paste.gg/p/anonymous/c574b44d65c94cf799286aadf529a724 | 03:38 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, ^^ | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Korea: +1030 cases (now 42766), +2 deaths (now 580) since a day ago | 04:06 |
| de-facto | I dont get it why they would not make presence lectures in schools completely illegal until daily incidence goes down to under 1000 per day in Germany (with a hard Lockdown). Instead of wasting money on holding the epidemic endemic on *very* high incidence levels (hence wasting money on buying nothing but time), why not buy every child a nice linux laptop for home schooling and go for a maximum hard lockdown? | 04:06 |
| de-facto | That would be a win-win: enable a hard lockdown with closed schools, yet have the kids at digital home schools and even invest into the IT competence of a whole generation with giving them something nice and open source like linux | 04:07 |
| de-facto | then invested money would buy 1) decline in daily new infections 2) establishing a new modern infrastructure for learning and IT competence of a whole generation | 04:08 |
| de-facto | right now the billions are completely wasted since the time that is bought by them is not used to do anything useful at all | 04:09 |
| de-facto | i would BET once they close schools the case numbers come down | 04:10 |
| de-facto | mark my words. | 04:10 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker | 04:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.raps.org: COVID-19 vaccine tracker | RAPS | 04:32 |
| de-facto | LjL, ^^ | 04:32 |
| de-facto | another covid vaccine tracker details with clicking on the (+) in front of the entries | 04:33 |
| de-facto | https://www.raps.org/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-authorized-vax2-craven.csv https://www.raps.org/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-vax-candidates-Craven.csv | 04:39 |
| de-facto | LjL, maybe that could be useful for the details scraping? | 04:41 |
| de-facto | not sure about the quality of that data though | 04:41 |
| de-facto | %tell LjL maybe worth a look: https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker https://www.raps.org/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-authorized-vax2-craven.csv https://www.raps.org/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-vax-candidates-Craven.csv | 04:42 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, I'll pass LjL your message when they are around. | 04:42 |
| LjL | de-facto, i already have the site itself in the list | 04:46 |
| LjL | %link raps | 04:46 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, <pre><code>* [Therapeutics](#therapeutics)</code></pre> [... want %more?] | 04:46 |
| LjL | boo | 04:46 |
| LjL | %link raps.org | 04:46 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker (RAPS COVID-19 vaccine tracker) | 04:46 |
| LjL | those csv's hmm... they are easy to parse obviously but contain some html cruft and not as much detail as covidvax has | 04:47 |
| LjL | so i prooobably still want to scrape the individual covidvax pages | 04:47 |
| de-facto | ah nice, i just found it mentioned in MedCram | 04:47 |
| de-facto | yeah true, i have to admit i did not look into the details of the content, just thought its nice to have it in csv format because its easy to parse, yet html probably also is easy enough to parse with bs4 | 04:48 |
| LjL | yes i'm adding the URLs to the api+feeds section anyway | 04:49 |
| de-facto | they contain a lot of urls though, might be useful | 04:49 |
| de-facto | i guess the urls will change with date (I just got them from devtools JS/XHR request) | 04:50 |
| LjL | ah right | 04:51 |
| LjL | that's a bit of a bummer for the list | 04:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add RAPS vaccine CSVs to feeds section → https://is.gd/vfq209 | 04:54 |
| de-facto | LjL, the URLs can be scraped from the HTML e.g. like wget -qO- 'https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker' | grep '\.csv' | sed "s/^[^']*'\([^']*\)'.*/https:\/\/www.raps.org\1/g" | 04:59 |
| de-facto | the JS in the HTML got two lines | 05:00 |
| de-facto | var vax_tracker_path = '/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-vax-candidates-Craven.csv'; | 05:00 |
| de-facto | var auth_tracker_path = '/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-authorized-vax2-craven.csv'; | 05:00 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jwBxZMWrng <-- really nice description of the BioNTech vaccine | 05:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Coronavirus Update 116: Pfizer COVID 19 Vaccine Explained (Biontech) - YouTube | 05:10 |
| de-facto | exactly one month ago | 05:11 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOq8-FR8s1E | 05:21 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Coronavirus Update 118: AstraZeneca DNA COVID 19 Vaccine Explained (vs. Pfizer / BioNTech, Moderna) - YouTube | 05:21 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZvsqBCvB00 | 05:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Coronavirus Update 117: Moderna vs. Pfizer COVID 19 Vaccine (mRNA vaccines) - YouTube | 05:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazil government outlines plan for coronavirus vaccinations → https://is.gd/eXLVJE | 05:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Pfizer’s Covid vaccine ships within hours. Here's how the U.S. plans to deliver it: The FDA just cleared the first Covid vaccine for emergency use. Within hours, FedEx and UPS will begin shipping 2.9 million doses across the country. → https://is.gd/ZCAzZp | 06:07 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/articles/2020/developing-versatile-immunisation-programmes-against-covid-19-through-potential-vaccine-combinations.html | 06:08 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.astrazeneca.com: Developing versatile immunisation programmes against COVID-19 through potential vaccine combinations | 06:08 |
| de-facto | "The UK government recently announced that it will begin a clinical trial combining adenovirus vaccines with mRNA technology vaccines. AstraZeneca is also considering how it can assess heterologous combinations of different vaccines, working with industry partners, governments and research institutions around the world, and will soon begin exploring with Gamaleya Research Institute in Russia to understand whether two adenovirus-based | 06:08 |
| de-facto | vaccines can be successfully combined." | 06:08 |
| de-facto | %title https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/astrazeneca-will-test-using-component-of-russia-s-sputnik-v-in-clinical-trials-of-its-own-vaccine-ag/ | 06:08 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From sputnikvaccine.com: AstraZeneca will test using component of Russia’s Sputnik V in clinical trials of its own vaccine against coronavirus | Official website vaccine against COVID-19 Sputnik V. | 06:08 |
| de-facto | "AstraZeneca accepted the proposal by RDIF and the Gamaleya Center to use one of the two vectors of the Sputnik V vaccine in additional clinical trials of its own vaccine, which will commence before the end of this year." | 06:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Historic US COVID vaccine campaign launches with convoy of trucks → https://is.gd/vK3jY2 | 06:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +2962 cases (now 178272) since a day ago — Germany: +21792 cases (now 1.3 million) since a day ago — Saskatchewan, Canada: +274 cases (now 11749), +11 deaths (now 86) since a day ago — Heilongjiang, China: +5 cases (now 956) since 2 days ago | 07:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Wales, United Kingdom: +2493 cases (now 100725), +31 deaths (now 2849) since a day ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +1393 cases (now 126377), +35 deaths (now 2442) since a day ago — Odessa Oblast, Ukraine: +1357 cases (now 57071), +24 deaths (now 782) since a day ago — Brandenburg, Germany: +1019 cases (now 28302), +17 deaths (now 559) since a day ago | 07:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ Open: Protocol on a multicentre statistical and economic modelling study of risk-based stratified and personalised screening for diabetes and its complications in India (SMART India): Introduction The aim of this study is to develop practical and affordable models to (a) diagnose people with diabetes and prediabetes and (b) identify those [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zDz9xy | 07:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2807 cases (now 605966), +110 deaths (now 17902) since 22 hours ago | 08:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid 19 coronavirus: Sweden running out of intensive care beds as cases soar → https://is.gd/X2DucA | 08:33 |
| darsie | Synapsestorm: define Mb | 08:34 |
| darsie | How are Earthquakes related to covid? | 08:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Relaxing restrictions 'could trigger third wave', NHS bosses warn → https://is.gd/vky7PC | 08:57 |
| de-facto | darsie, i am curious about the successful lockdown in Austria, what parts of schools are still open and which ones closed? | 09:07 |
| darsie | idk | 09:08 |
| darsie | Case number decline stopped. | 09:08 |
| de-facto | oh did they open again? | 09:09 |
| darsie | I don't think so. | 09:09 |
| darsie | Maybe just a glitch. | 09:09 |
| de-facto | whats the official portal? | 09:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | December 13, 2020: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/6IImhk | 09:10 |
| de-facto | or dashboard? | 09:10 |
| de-facto | damn looks like increase since Dec 7th again? | 09:11 |
| darsie | Schools till 14 yo are open, above closed. Kindergarten/daycare is open. | 09:11 |
| de-facto | hmm but wait Nov 30th was the last minimum so maybe its just the weekly periodicity? | 09:11 |
| darsie | https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus/Coronavirus---Aktuelle-Ma%C3%9Fnahmen.html | 09:11 |
| de-facto | darsie, thats smart since most of the infections happen for that age or above | 09:12 |
| de-facto | thanks | 09:12 |
| darsie | https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/ https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus/Neuartiges-Coronavirus-(2019-nCov).html | 09:13 |
| de-facto | ooh but they opened schools since 7th of Dec again? | 09:14 |
| darsie | idk | 09:14 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Kindergärten und Pflichtschulen nehmen den Regelbetrieb wieder auf, ab dem Alter von 10 Jahren gilt eine Maskenpflicht auch im Unterricht. Oberstufen und Universitäten werden weiter im Fernunterricht betrieben. Für MaturantInnen wird der Regelbetrieb wieder aufgenommen. | 09:14 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: Kindergartens and compulsory schools resume regular operations; from the age of 10, a mask is also required in lessons. Upper schools and universities continue to be operated by distance learning. Regular operations will be resumed for high school graduates. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 09:14 |
| de-facto | hopefully that is not the cause of a stopping decline | 09:15 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see that in a week or such when it could not be explained by periodicity anymore | 09:15 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Austria&cumulative=no | 09:16 |
| de-facto | darsie, nice they just published the results today it seems | 09:23 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.bmbwf.gv.at/Themen/schule/beratung/corona/gs.html | 09:23 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.bmbwf.gv.at: Die „Gurgelstudie“ an Schulen | 09:23 |
| de-facto | https://www.bmbwf.gv.at/dam/jcr:d6d79057-cb7a-459d-8612-bf9a8ddc27ba/gs_abstract.pdf | 09:24 |
| de-facto | https://www.derstandard.de/story/2000121673318/gurgeltest-studie-viel-mehr-corona-infizierte-in-benachteiligten-schulen | 09:27 |
| de-facto | %tr <de In Schulen findet ein relevantes Infektionsgeschehen statt, und dieses wird auch aus den Schulen in die Familien getragen. Dies hat auch eben der Präsident des deutschen Robert-Koch-Instituts, Lothar Wieler, für Deutschland bestätigt. Das Narrativ, dass Kinder unter zehn Jahren wesentlich seltener infiziert seien, stimmt zumindest für Österreich ganz offensichtlich nicht, und es besteht auch keine Veranlassung, Kinder di | 09:29 |
| de-facto | eser Altersstufe beim Testen oder den Quarantäneregelungen anders zu behandeln als Erwachsene. Unsere Daten zeigen interessanterweise auch keinen signifikanten Unterschied bezüglich des Anteils infizierter Personen zwischen Lehrern und Schülern. | 09:29 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: A relevant infection process takes place in schools, and this is also carried from the schools into the families. The President of the German Robert Koch Institute, Lothar Wieler, has just confirmed this for Germany. The narrative that children under ten years of age are much less likely to be infected is clearly not true, at least for Austria, and [... want %more?] | 09:29 |
| de-facto | me let me try that again | 09:30 |
| de-facto | %tr <de In Schulen findet ein relevantes Infektionsgeschehen statt, und dieses wird auch aus den Schulen in die Familien getragen. Dies hat auch eben der Präsident des deutschen Robert-Koch-Instituts, Lothar Wieler, für Deutschland bestätigt. | 09:30 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: A relevant infection process takes place in schools, and this is also carried from the schools into the families. The President of the German Robert Koch Institute, Lothar Wieler, has just confirmed this for Germany. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 09:30 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Das Narrativ, dass Kinder unter zehn Jahren wesentlich seltener infiziert seien, stimmt zumindest für Österreich ganz offensichtlich nicht, und es besteht auch keine Veranlassung, Kinder dieser Altersstufe beim Testen oder den Quarantäneregelungen anders zu behandeln als Erwachsene. | 09:30 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: The narrative that children under ten years of age are much less likely to be infected is clearly not true, at least for Austria, and there is also no reason to treat children of this age group differently than adults when testing or following quarantine regulations. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 09:30 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Unsere Daten zeigen interessanterweise auch keinen signifikanten Unterschied bezüglich des Anteils infizierter Personen zwischen Lehrern und Schülern. | 09:31 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: Interestingly, our data also show no significant difference in the percentage of infected people between teachers and students. (MyMemory, Google) — Our dates show also interestingly enough no significant difference regarding the #share *infizierter persons between teachers and students. (Apertium) | 09:31 |
| de-facto | so if they conclude that children in schools are infected quite the same amount as other adults then how can they allow them to gather in large groups in classrooms connecting all the social bubbles of the families? | 09:32 |
| de-facto | so this will be interesting | 09:33 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Volksschüler, Schüler der Oberstufe und Mittelschulen, sowie Maturanten und Abschlussklassen anderer Schultypen haben ab Montag wieder Präsenzunterricht. Schülerinnen und Schüler müssen ab der Sekundarstufe im Unterricht Maske tragen. | 09:33 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: Elementary school students, high school and middle school students, as well as high school graduates and graduating classes from other types of schools will have face-to-face classes again from Monday. From secondary school onwards, pupils must wear masks in class. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 09:33 |
| de-facto | with Monday they meant 2020-12-07 | 09:34 |
| de-facto | so lets see how that impacts incidence in Austria... | 09:34 |
| de-facto | hopefully that was not too early opening schools (i think this might have been a mistake, lets look at the effect on incidence from it like 10-14 days after 2020-12-07) | 09:39 |
| de-facto | hmm actually might start to impact incidence one incubation time after reopening schools | 09:40 |
| de-facto | like the very earliest would get infected on the same day when school opens, then half of the symptomatic cases would occur before median incubation time of 5.2 days, that would have been yesterday 2020-12-12 | 09:41 |
| de-facto | so maybe we are already seeing first effects of this? hard to tell | 09:42 |
| de-facto | btw very nice portal, even with csv download :D | 09:44 |
| de-facto | yeah i think its too early to tell this, we need to wait a little more datapoints maybe next week or such | 09:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Bahrain approves Chinese COVID-19 vaccine for use → https://is.gd/KkcR2j | 10:47 |
| ubLIX[m] | the beast must be fed? - https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/12/the-failure-of-the-public-health-establishment.html | 10:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Relaxing restrictions 'could trigger third wave', NHS bosses warn → https://is.gd/vky7PC | 11:10 |
| Arsanerit | NB: Deepl Translate provides better quality translations than Google Translate (https://www.deepl.com/translator) | 11:16 |
| Arsanerit | Why is that after all those months they appear to be still taking decisions in a seemingly panic mode, rather than having a clearly defined inventory with all the possible measures rated by their effectiveness (from science) and (societal) cost, along with criteria/thresholds relating to key figures that decide when what measure is implemented or lifted? | 11:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Latvia: +629 cases (now 25675), +25 deaths (now 349) since 23 hours ago | 11:37 |
| de-facto | very good question | 11:38 |
| cordelia | hi | 11:39 |
| de-facto | Hi cordelia :) | 11:39 |
| cordelia | nice to see a coronavirus chat room in here, lol. | 11:39 |
| cordelia | I'm from one of the worst countries about covid positive people. | 11:40 |
| de-facto | we have bots in here reporting newest case numbers and also news from all around the world | 11:42 |
| de-facto | %cases world | 11:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: In World, there have been 72.6 million confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 1.6 million deaths (2.2% of cases) as of 10 minutes ago. 1.2 billion tests were performed (6.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 11:43 |
| de-facto | %papers BNT162b2 | 11:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, 2 papers: A prefusion SARS-CoV-2 spike RNA vaccine is highly immunogenic and prevents lung infection in non-human primates by Annette Vogel et al, published on 2020-09-08 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.09.08.280818 [... want %more?] | 11:43 |
| de-facto | %vax BioNTech | 11:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, Trial start: Apr 20, Researcher: BioNTech + Pfizer, Country: Germany + USA, Participants: 44866, Vaccine: mRNA BNT162b2, Stage: Testing on humans | 11:44 |
| de-facto | %cases Turkey | 11:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: In Turkey, there have been 1.8 million confirmed cases (2.2% of the population) and 16199 deaths (0.9% of cases) as of 18 hours ago. 20.9 million tests were performed (8.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey for time series data. | 11:44 |
| de-facto | also lots of quite knowledgeable people from all around the world are idling here | 11:45 |
| de-facto | there is quite a big collection of links accumulated over time on https://covid19.specops.network | 11:46 |
| de-facto | usually the channel is more active at evening and night time in Europe, many of the regulars are insomniacs :) | 11:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Over 100 Scientists, Doctors, & Leading Authorities Call For Increased Vitamin D Use To Combat COVID-19 → https://is.gd/1DRNuo | 11:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vitamin D Deficiency in COVID-19 Quadrupled Death Rate → https://is.gd/lQZ1NG | 12:11 |
| Arsanerit | Germany now appears to have the lowest doubling time in Europe apart from Turkey, but Turkish data appear to have an artefact. | 12:16 |
| cordelia | Brainstorm are you from Turkey? | 12:18 |
| Arsanerit | German numbers for new infections are lower in the weekend, which is an artefact I understand, but number of deaths is also lower on the weekend, which I don't understand. | 12:20 |
| cordelia | I think I was trying to talk with a bot) | 12:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +4451 cases (now 175874), +39 deaths (now 1922) since 22 hours ago | 12:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Public must think carefully about Christmas risk, NHS bosses warn → https://is.gd/vky7PC | 12:59 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Over 100 Scientists, Doctors, & Leading Authorities Call For Increased Vitamin D Use To Combat COVID-19 (89 votes) | https://vitamind4all.org/letter.html | https://redd.it/kc89zs | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: ‘It’s peace of mind’: Covid-19 vaccines can’t arrive soon enough for many frontline health workers: Front-line medical workers, exhausted by the pandemic and the many risks they’ve taken to care for Covid-19 patients, say the vaccines can’t come soon enough. → https://is.gd/QRpuz2 | 14:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +254522 cases (now 16.6 million), +2326 deaths (now 305088) since 23 hours ago | 14:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +14 deaths (now 5984) since a day ago | 14:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +9600 cases (now 613487) since 22 hours ago | 14:37 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: people die less on weekends. | 14:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so next wednesday finally full lockdown in whole fermany | 15:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Germany too | 15:30 |
| euod[m] | why pre announce that? | 15:32 |
| euod[m] | just means there's going to be huge panic and more infetins | 15:32 |
| Wood | hello | 15:35 |
| Wood | help | 15:36 |
| jacklsw | are you in emergency Wood? | 15:37 |
| jacklsw | you should call real help | 15:37 |
| Wood | YEAH | 15:40 |
| Wood | how to call real help the goverment wasnt help us out | 15:40 |
| jacklsw | what help do you need? | 15:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | euod[m]: we think that the panic will come with unannounced lockdown | 15:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | frankly I think nobody would obey an unannounced lockdown | 15:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also some 60% are already miffed that the lockdown didn't come already. Why not tell them "stay calm, official lockdown in 4 days"? | 15:50 |
| euod[m] | DocScrutinizer05: so do what australia did | 15:56 |
| euod[m] | on the spot fines for anyone disobeying. | 15:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you suggest we lock schools on day-X and every pupil that hits the locked door in the morning since nobody told them to stay at jome get fined?,akes no sense | 16:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | honestly, we are more reasonable and common sense here than you seem to assume | 16:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | how do you think an unannounced lockdown will get implemented? stealth military action in the morning 04:00? welding closed each door they can reach? | 16:06 |
| euod[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 "how do you think an unannounced "> er same way everyone else does? send a presidential alert. | 16:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and then chalk for those who die from starving in their locked down flats? | 16:07 |
| euod[m] | yes you don't have that in DE, but everyone's equipment supports it. | 16:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, nope. Completely inappropriate measure, with no benefit | 16:08 |
| euod[m] | why? it tells everyone what's going on in an instant. | 16:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | here is no panic from announced shutdown | 16:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so we don't need all that nonsense | 16:09 |
| euod[m] | you're telling me it being announced didn't cause millions of people to go to lidl? | 16:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | they do every day | 16:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so no, it didn't CAUSe this | 16:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Lidl stays open anyway | 16:10 |
| euod[m] | weird, in just about every other country it caused a huge influx of people to run to walmart or whatever in a panic to buy the shelves clear of everything. | 16:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so not even a reason to mass-rush to Lidl | 16:10 |
| euod[m] | well same everywhere else. | 16:10 |
| euod[m] | you're expecting the general population to act in a sane way. | 16:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no, we *see* | 16:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | people are idiots, but not THAT idiotic | 16:11 |
| euod[m] | that's why everyone loves germany, such an efficient place so long as it doesn't involve language or beer :) | 16:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also thanks to our government not doing idiotic things like unannounced lockdown | 16:12 |
| euod[m] | maybe your population is smarter than the average bear | 16:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, we also had that toilet paper shortage in april, but that's it | 16:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and noodles iirc | 16:14 |
| euod[m] | I can't get cheese balls at the moment, that's about my only issue. | 16:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | most people laughed at those idiots | 16:14 |
| euod[m] | and the postal system fucking sucks. | 16:14 |
| euod[m] | I'm actually currently waiting on DHL to get their shit together funnily enough. | 16:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Snow leopards are the latest cats to be infected with the coronavirus → https://is.gd/1lCBHa | 16:15 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>send a presidential alert<< can't even get donw, neither our president nor our chancelor has the authority for that. We are a federal union of states | 16:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Merjel and 17 federal prime ministers afreed on the lockdown today, been expected since almost 2 weeks | 16:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +249605 cases (now 16.6 million), +2205 deaths (now 305109) since 23 hours ago | 16:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Merkel* | 16:23 |
| euod[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 ">>send a presidential alert<< ca"> I mean, "presidential alert" is the name of the system in the US | 16:24 |
| euod[m] | it's a blind message sent by cellphone towers. | 16:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, and it doesn't work like this here | 16:24 |
| euod[m] | hm? the technical system absolutely does even if you have no law to handle it. | 16:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | nobody will give a shit about some weird SMS on their phone | 16:25 |
| euod[m] | heh you've never seen these things have you? | 16:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I *developed* smartphones | 16:26 |
| euod[m] | it makes every cellphone scream with a klaxon, at maximum volume, regardless of any settings. it can not be disabled. | 16:26 |
| euod[m] | it's not "some weird sms" | 16:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | doesn't matter | 16:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | my smartphone has no authority to order anything to me | 16:26 |
| genera | we have NINA. that is much scarier. even the name! | 16:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | KATWARN freaked out last week | 16:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | NINA worked | 16:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I think a 2 million have either of both installef | 16:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | BIBA *almost* wake me up ;-P | 16:29 |
| Arsanerit | 14:47:28 < euod[m]> Arsanerit: people die less on weekends. | 16:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | NINA* | 16:29 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: really? why? | 16:29 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: just as a general hospital thing, risky procedures don't fall on sundays usually unless it's an emergency. | 16:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | because... they don't want to die on weekends? | 16:30 |
| Arsanerit | euod[m]: hmm, and that even affects death from covid-19? | 16:31 |
| Arsanerit | that's interesting | 16:31 |
| euod[m] | Arsanerit: for covid-19 specifically I'm just speculating, but it's true for normal hospital operations, especially births. c-sections that are scheduled tend not to be on a weekend. | 16:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | covid has a reporting noise signal with a strict 7d periodicity, in all reports | 16:37 |
| euod[m] | that too, but I'd wager that some of it is legitimate | 16:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Pfizer’s Covid vaccine is now shipping. Here's how the U.S. plans to deliver it: The FDA just cleared the first Covid vaccine for emergency use. Within hours, FedEx and UPS will begin shipping 2.9 million doses across the country. → https://is.gd/ZCAzZp | 16:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | euod[m]: >>my smartphone has no authority to order anything to me<< look, our gvmt also doesn't announce stuff via twitter ;-D | 16:41 |
| genera | #Neuland | 16:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hahaha | 16:41 |
| genera | für uns alle ! | 16:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | genera: amazon christmas gifts this year? ;-D | 16:46 |
| genera | sigh | 16:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | or did you already bail out of the habit, or buy your gifts months ahaed? | 16:47 |
| genera | i v been told i get a copy of a CWA and that is all | 16:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | CWA? | 16:48 |
| Arsanerit | DocScrutinizer05: for reporting infections I understand that due to testing centra, for reporting deaths I find it more surprising. | 16:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the reporting system itself is introducing it | 16:49 |
| genera | https://f-droid.org/en/packages/de.corona.tracing/ DocScrutinizer05 | 16:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +17937 cases (now 1.8 million), +484 deaths (now 64520) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +3917 cases (now 456529), +58 deaths (now 13366) since 23 hours ago | 16:51 |
| Arsanerit | Why do they use the word lockdown when all they do is closing shops without actually locking people down in their home (apart from at night in Bavaria and some districts outside Bavaria)? | 16:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hmm TLS handshake to f-droid timed out | 16:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>at night in Bavaria<< is a misconception too | 16:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | they mostly lock down shops | 16:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and gathering of more than 2 people | 17:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and you're *supposed* to not leave home unless you need to | 17:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | things have to get much worse before we enter "warn level military green" | 17:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Arizona, US: +5853 cases (now 408442), +35 deaths (now 7357) since 23 hours ago | 17:05 |
| snake | my doctor got covid, his wife says he is doing better but still in the hospital | 17:13 |
| snake | the office is closing | 17:14 |
| snake | and i need to find a new doctor | 17:14 |
| snake | it sucks | 17:14 |
| snake | what if my new doctor doesnt care as much as this one? | 17:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +18447 cases (now 1.8 million), +144 deaths (now 64170) since 22 hours ago | 17:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Public must think carefully about Christmas risk, NHS bosses warn → https://is.gd/vky7PC | 17:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | (un*/(announced lockdown)) >> [6 Dec 2020 06:49:54] * DocScrutinizer05 affords the luxury to maintain faint hope for a hard lockdown starting in a week or so<< well, it became 10 days instead a week now | 17:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: you somewhat "happy" now? Do you think we will succeed with those measures? | 17:54 |
| the-wes | define succeed | 18:02 |
| the-wes | will zero people die? no | 18:02 |
| the-wes | will less people die than if we did nothing | 18:02 |
| the-wes | ? yes | 18:02 |
| LjL | Any clue what is going to happen to Google/Apple exposure notifications? Unless something has changed, they were slated to be phased out in 2021 "no matter what". I've basically stopped hearing about our country's app entirely | 18:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://i.imgur.com/3pdXvtK.png per federal state / Land is quite "interesting" timelines, on covid.rki.de | 18:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Previously removed due to opinion so opinion removed. Factually: AstraZeneca-Oxford and Johnson & Johnson have pledged to sell the Covid-19 vaccine at a price that just covers their costs (AZ/Oxford for just $4-$8 per dose) whereas Pfizer-BioNTech will make a profit selling at $18-$19. → https://is.gd/XT8Tc8 | 18:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: EXPLAINER: How much COVID-19 vaccine will be shipped in US: COVID-19 vaccines have begun shipping in the U.S. after getting emergency authorization, setting off the nation's biggest ever vaccination push. But supplies are expected to be limited for some time. → https://is.gd/zcSgQo | 18:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><the-wes> define succeed<< well, even while that's a widely criticized lack by politics to not officially define it, the consensus seems to be "reach an incidence os < or << 50/100k7d | 18:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | of* | 18:43 |
| the-wes | absolutely, weasel words are the bread and butter of politics | 18:46 |
| Arsanerit | should the measure be "people dying" or years of life lost? | 18:46 |
| the-wes | that is certainly a factor, however the same measures cause the same change in both measures | 18:47 |
| the-wes | er. the same ... measures cause the same change in both... metrics? | 18:48 |
| the-wes | english ftw? | 18:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: South Korea hits new daily record for COVID cases: South Korea reported 1,030 new coronavirus cases Sunday, a record high for a second day in a row as the country struggles to tackle a third wave of infections. → https://is.gd/a5z3ba | 18:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | IANAP, *my* wording, please don't tweak my words to use them in a debate about politics | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | I thought South Korea was doing relatively well | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | 1030 cases in a day isn't too bad in comparison to some other countries | 18:54 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: ‘Indiana is on fire’: Gov. Eric Holcomb orders hospitals to delay elective surgeries as COVID-19 overwhelms health care system (10155 votes) | https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/ct-ptb-covid-indiana-hospital-cancel-surgeries-st-1210-20201209-ue3zumvnbjgbfldlxgsvojr5gi-story.html | https://redd.it/kc3ylq | 18:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | anyway s/Do you think we will succeed/Do you think it will suffice/ and I'm sure de-facto understands me | 18:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><the-wes> define succeed / will zero people die? no / will less people die than if we did nothing? yes<< is quite obvious and not really leading anywhere | 18:57 |
| the-wes | and where was your question leading? | 18:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | to a conversation with de-facto who never got tired to demand for lockdown and I been interested if he thinks our measures are appropriate or still too weak | 19:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | if you think you got to bash me for that, please be more explicit | 19:01 |
| the-wes | I have no intention of bashing you at all | 19:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: are you into flagging biased inappropriately citing headlines in https://old.reddit.com ? >>Previously removed due to opinion so opinion removed. Factually: AstraZeneca-Oxford and Johnson...<< https://is.gd/XT8Tc8 | 19:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +236 deaths (now 22254) since 22 hours ago | 19:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | %title https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55170756 is the original | 19:21 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05: From www.bbc.com: Covid vaccines: Will drug companies make bumper profits? - BBC News | 19:21 |
| LjL | %vax sputnik | 19:43 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Adeno-based - Sputnik V is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in Russia by Gamaleya Research Institute, which began its testing on humans on date Jun 17 with 43848 participants → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/Gamaleya | 19:43 |
| LjL | de-facto ↑ | 19:43 |
| de-facto | %vax biontech | 20:03 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, mRNA BNT162b2 is a RNA-based vaccine developed in Germany + USA by BioNTech + Pfizer + Fosun Pharma + University of Rochester Medical Center (URMC) + Rochester Regional Health (RRH), which began its testing on humans on date Apr 20 with 44866 participants → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/BioNTech-Pfizer | 20:03 |
| de-facto | whoa thats awesome, so you scrape the details page now? | 20:03 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/997532/1827366/69441fb68435a7199b3d3a89bff2c0e6/2020-12-13-beschluss-mpk-data.pdf | 20:04 |
| de-facto | This is the official statement "Beschluss" about the comming containment measures in Germany (in German language) | 20:05 |
| de-facto | https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/997532/1827366/69441fb68435a7199b3d3a89bff2c0e6/2020-12-13-beschluss-mpk-data.pdf | 20:05 |
| LjL | de-facto, i do. there is a limitation in that for the *search*, only the main list page is used (i don't want to download *all* the subpages every time), so for example | 20:07 |
| LjL | %vax astrazeneca | 20:08 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, no such vaccine found. Try checking https://covidvax.org | 20:08 |
| LjL | %vax oxford | 20:08 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, AZD 1222 is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in UK by Jenner Institute (University of Oxford) + Cobra Biologics + Oxford Biomedica + Merck KGaA + Halix BV + Pall Corporation + SGS + India's Serum Institute + AstraZeneca + Catalent Biologics + CSL Limited, which began its testing on humans on date Apr 23 with 47444 participants → [... want %more?] | 20:08 |
| LjL | because in the list page, only "Oxford" is mentioned | 20:08 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Auch an den Schulen sollen im Zeitraum vom 16. Dezember 2020 bis 10. Januar 2021 die Kontakte deutlich eingeschränkt werden. Kinder sollen dieser Zeit wann immer möglich zu Hause betreut werden. Daher werden in diesem Zeitraum die Schulen grundsätzlich geschlossen oder die Präsenzpflicht wird ausgesetzt. | 20:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: Contacts at schools are also to be significantly restricted between December 16, 2020 and January 10, 2021. During this time, children should be cared for at home whenever possible. For this reason, the schools are generally closed or compulsory attendance is suspended during this period. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 20:10 |
| LjL | hurray | 20:10 |
| de-facto | finally something that makes sense | 20:10 |
| LjL | while at the same time, we are reopening them | 20:11 |
| de-facto | Austria too, i am curious about the effect from that | 20:11 |
| de-facto | like they party reopened them on 2020-12-07 | 20:11 |
| LjL | but really i can't fathom how they consider Italy's situation "under control", just because we've *barely* stabilized the number of new daily cases | 20:12 |
| de-facto | thats really neat that smart %vax command providing all the details, i love it :)) | 20:12 |
| LjL | good. the other thing i'd like to do is to use that ox.ac.co.uk site (or one of the others, but that one had the best-looking API and completeness) to not only query restrictions in a given country, but also give announcements like "From today, schools are open in Germany" | 20:13 |
| de-facto | seems they found more or less similar incidence in teachers and children https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bmbwf.gv.at%2Fdam%2Fjcr%3Ad6d79057-cb7a-459d-8612-bf9a8ddc27ba%2Fgs_abstract.pdf&sandbox=1 | 20:14 |
| LjL | but maybe i shouldn't say what i want to do because i may not end up doing it :P it's already been a while and i haven't even added those sites to the list | 20:14 |
| de-facto | Brainstorm is getting better with every update :) | 20:15 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Gottesdienste in Kirchen, Synagogen und Moscheen sowie die Zusammenkünfte anderer Glaubensgemeinschaften sind nur unter folgenden Voraussetzungen zulässig: Der Mindestabstand von 1,5 Metern wird gewahrt, es gilt Maskenpflicht auch am Platz, der Gemeindegesang ist untersagt. | 20:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: Church services in churches, synagogues and mosques as well as meetings of other religious communities are only permitted under the following conditions: The minimum distance of 1.5 meters is maintained, a mask is required on the site, and congregational singing is prohibited. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 20:17 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Bei Zusammenkünften, in der | 20:17 |
| de-facto | Besucherzahlen erwartet werden, die zu einer Auslastung der Kapazitäten führen | 20:17 |
| de-facto | könnten, ist ein Anmeldungserfordernis einzuführen. | 20:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: At meetings in which (MyMemory, Google) — Near appointments, in this (Apertium) | 20:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Fauci says he fears healthcare workers will be 'hesitant' to get the coronavirus vaccine → https://is.gd/U1XL7l | 20:18 |
| de-facto | err lemme try that again | 20:18 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Bei Zusammenkünften, in der Besucherzahlen erwartet werden, die zu einer Auslastung der Kapazitäten führen könnten, ist ein Anmeldungserfordernis einzuführen. | 20:18 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: A registration requirement is to be introduced for meetings at which visitor numbers are expected which could lead to capacity utilization. (MyMemory) — A registration requirement must be introduced for meetings at which visitor numbers are expected that could lead to capacity utilization. (Google) [... want %more?] | 20:18 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Für Alten- und Pflegeheime sowie mobile Pflegedienste sind besondere Schutzmaßnahmen zu treffen. Der Bund unterstützt diese mit medizinischen Schutzmasken und durch die Übernahme der Kosten für Antigen-Schnelltests. Neben dem Tragen einer FFP2-Maske ist in der aktuellen Phase hoher Inzidenz fast im ganzen Bundesgebiet das Testen des Pflegepersonals wichtig. | 20:19 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: Special protective measures must be taken for retirement and nursing homes as well as mobile care services. The federal government supports this with medical protective masks and by assuming the costs for rapid antigen tests. In addition to wearing an FFP2 mask, in the current phase of high incidence, testing of nursing staff is important in almost [... want %more?] | 20:20 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Die Länder werden zudem eine verpflichtende Testung mehrmals pro Woche für das Personal in den Alten- und Pflegeeinrichtungen anordnen. Solche regelmäßigen Tests sind ebenso für das Personal in mobilen Pflegediensten angezeigt. | 20:20 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: The federal states will also order mandatory testing several times a week for the staff in the elderly and care facilities. Such regular tests are also indicated for staff in mobile care services. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 20:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5821 cases (now 458804), +80 deaths (now 13406) since 23 hours ago | 20:21 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Bund und Länder betonen erneut, dass über die gemeinsamen Maßnahmen hinaus gemäß der Hotspotstrategie in allen Hotspots ab einer Inzidenz von 50 Neuinfektionen pro 100.000 Einwohnern pro Woche sofort ein konsequentes Beschränkungskonzept regional umgesetzt werden muss. | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: The federal government and the federal states emphasize once again that in addition to the joint measures in accordance with the hotspot strategy, a consistent regional restriction concept must be implemented immediately in all hotspots with an incidence of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 20:22 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Bei besonders extremen Infektionslagen mit einer Inzidenz von über 200 Neuinfektionen pro 100.000 Einwohnern pro Woche und diffusem Infektionsgeschehen sollen die umfassenden allgemeinen Maßnahmen nochmals erweitert werden, um kurzfristig eine deutliche Absenkung des Infektionsgeschehens zu erreichen. | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: In particularly extreme infection situations with an incidence of over 200 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week and a diffuse infection rate, the comprehensive general measures should be expanded again in order to achieve a significant reduction in the number of infections in the short term. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 20:23 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Bund und Länder appellieren eindringlich an alle Bürgerinnen und Bürger in der Zeit bis 10. Januar von nicht zwingend notwendigen Reisen im Inland und auch ins Ausland abzusehen. | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: The federal and state governments urge all citizens to refrain from traveling in Germany and abroad that is not absolutely necessary in the period up to 10 January. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 20:24 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Sie weisen nachdrücklich darauf hin, dass bei Einreisen aus ausländischen Risikogebieten die Pflicht zur Eintragung in die digitale Einreiseanmeldung verpflichtend ist, und dass eine Quarantänepflicht für einen Zeitraum von 10 Tagen nach Rückkehr besteht. | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: They expressly point out that when entering from foreign risk areas, the obligation to enter in the digital entry registration is mandatory and that there is an obligation to quarantine for a period of 10 days after return. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 20:24 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Eine Beendigung der Quarantäne nur durch einen negativen Test möglich, der frühestens am 5 Tag nach der Einreise abgenommen wurde. | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: The quarantine can only be ended with a negative test, which was taken at the earliest on the 5 day after entry. (MyMemory) — The quarantine can only be ended with a negative test, which was taken at the earliest on the 5th day after entry. (Google) [... want %more?] | 20:25 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Die Bundeskanzlerin und die Regierungschefinnen und Regierungschefs der Länder werden im Lichte der weiteren Infektionsentwicklung am 5. Januar 2021 erneut beraten und über die Maßnahmen ab 11. Januar 2021 beschließen. | 20:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: The Federal Chancellor and the heads of government of the federal states will be discussed again in the light of the further development of the infection on January 5, 2021 and will decide on the measures from January 11, 2021. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 20:26 |
| de-facto | Finally i think this might work, it will be a hard fight to bring down incidence but with closed schools (FINALLY :), hopefully restricting church services (im still skeptical about those), mandatory screening test in retirement and nursing homes (this is ESSENTIAL), sticking to the goal of bringing down the weekly incidence below 50/100k (so control via contact tracing may become accessible again, still probably more decline than that | 20:30 |
| de-facto | is needed) and quarantine from traveling returnees | 20:30 |
| de-facto | this finally makes sense | 20:31 |
| LjL | holy flood | 20:31 |
| de-facto | we have to achieve -75% of contact rates and -40% of mobility | 20:31 |
| de-facto | LjL, sorry i was trying to summarize the key points from todays decision from German government | 20:33 |
| de-facto | its complete now :) | 20:33 |
| de-facto | so with 83M citizens to achieve a average weekly incidence of 50/100k we need to come down to 50*830/7 = 5928 | 20:35 |
| LjL | i went out briefly today to load a pass on a public transport card, i think i saw more people not wearing their masks properly than people who were | 20:36 |
| LjL | they were either not wearing it at all, had it down (often smoking), or had the nose out | 20:37 |
| LjL | at least the metro station was empty | 20:37 |
| de-facto | so if we now have a daily incidence of ~30k and want to come down to ~6k it would be 5x too high hence 2.3 halflives, if we would target for 1000 daily new infections it would be 30x too high hence 4.9 halflifes | 20:44 |
| de-facto | so assuming the absolute best case, incidence coming down as fast as it did rise, what were the doubling times in its steepest slope like? was it like 10 days or such in Germany? | 20:45 |
| de-facto | hence that would mean 23-49 days to of lockdown to come down to 6000-1000 daily new infections | 20:46 |
| de-facto | so from Wednesday 2020-12-16 it would be 23 days till Friday 2021-01-08 (possibly reaching 6000 daily new infections hence weekly 50/100k) and 49 days till Wednesday 2021-02-03 (possibly approaching 1000 daily new infections). | 20:49 |
| de-facto | that is the very best case scenario though, so maybe unrealistically fast decline assumed | 20:50 |
| de-facto | so it seems their goal of reaching 50/100k maybe barely reachable with them targeting 2021-01-10 with reevaluation on 2021-01-05 | 20:52 |
| de-facto | it looks like they got some modelers calculating these dates for them | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +9645 cases (now 613536) since 23 hours ago | 20:53 |
| de-facto | thats good news them finally hearing to their scientific consultations | 20:53 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, what do you think, is a half-life of around 10 days realistic at all? | 20:54 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Millisecond-scale molecular dynamics simulation of spike RBD structure reveals evolutionary adaption of SARS-CoV-2 to stably bind ACE2 (81 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.11.422055v1 | https://redd.it/kcequf | 21:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: half-life... hmm, after initial onset delay it will be probably even shorter | 21:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | for initial timespan until 50%, yes 10d seems on the optimistic realistic side | 21:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | counting in the obedient germans which already do lockdown even 3 days ahead of it getting started, I'm optimistic | 21:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | let me put it this way: if we don't see a very clear effect around xmess, I start to really worry what else we need and can do | 21:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | plaim math tells me we need a reduction by factor 500. With a R_eff=0.5 we will reach this in (2^) 9*4 days | 21:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so prepare for a 40 day lockdown | 21:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | if everything pans out and our goals won't rot again | 21:41 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Trucks Carrying Pfizer COVID Vaccine Met by Cheering Onlookers in Kalamazoo (10431 votes) | https://www.newsweek.com/people-cheer-trucks-carrying-pfizer-vaccine-1554403 | https://redd.it/kcdkqh | 21:56 |
| de-facto | assumed a half life of 10 days is somewhat realistic i would estimate a lockdown duration of 23-49 days that would be an average of 36 days or such | 21:56 |
| de-facto | hence pretty much similar then | 21:56 |
| de-facto | 36 days would be Thursday 2021-01-21 | 21:57 |
| de-facto | again assuming this all goes well, the most optimistic case | 21:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, realistically we have to see we got a R_eff minimum of 0.63 on 2020/04/14 and we only can hope our better knowledge now will allow us reaching 0.5. This is mere wishful thinking by me | 22:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | my prognosis though is: around 2021-01-10 we will have reached a maybe 1000 or 2000/10k7d and everybody starts crying >>END THAT LOCKDOWN **NOW**<< | 22:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | s./10k./100k. | 22:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I really miss ONE clear statement from politics that we will bring down the incidences to <<50 now, no matter how long and what it takes | 22:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and we'll KEEP IT THERE | 22:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | since this is the root sin: nobody cared when we went from 8/100k7d to 10, 15, 20, 35... | 22:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | not even at 50 the alarm bells rang | 22:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>... oh, a 65? well... let's ... maybe make masks mandatory indoors in mun ivipal buildings. Don't you think that might suffice?<< IDIOTS | 22:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | municipal* | 22:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>municipal health offices are on their knees? meh, we'll send some soldiers to help them waste their time<< | 22:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | wow, Schwesig (of al politicians) is the first I hear saying >>only when we're <<50 we can think about relaxing NPI again<< | 22:31 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, i dont see a weekly indicidence of 1000/100k on 2021-01-10 but rather on 2021-02-03 | 22:34 |
| de-facto | or later | 22:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | while Laschet et al still ride their apologetic narrative of >>lockdown light would have sufficed if only everybody would have complied. We did nothing wrong<< I hate it when politicians blame their people for the failures they made themselves | 22:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Tennessee, US: +11352 cases (now 454305), +62 deaths (now 5462) since 23 hours ago | 22:35 |
| de-facto | most people will follow public containment measures, its entirely the fault of the management | 22:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: don't quote me on that, you're prolly closer than me on what we'll see. But you _may_ call me out on bitching starting at 2021-01-10 no matter what the numbers | 22:35 |
| de-facto | of course those voices already can be heard right now id bet, surely much louder on 2020-01-10 and even more loud when vaccinations started | 22:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and I do even one more prophecy: it will be "the schools" (or their "supporters") to start that bitching | 22:37 |
| de-facto | at the end i have to say such longterm predicitons are relying on that the conditions can be estimated to be somewhat static and that assumption almost always is wrong | 22:37 |
| de-facto | hence its just an extrapolation based on the static assumption, reality probably will differ from that because its all dynamic systems with auto-reaction (e.g. with feedback loops etc) | 22:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | but... you can reasonably assume that dec and jan will get worse regarding seasonal modulation of R | 22:38 |
| de-facto | yes very much so | 22:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and prolly feb even worse | 22:39 |
| de-facto | if it behaves similar to HKU1 it will be the worst time in those months | 22:39 |
| de-facto | %title https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224 | 22:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From smw.ch: Swiss Medical Weekly - Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic | 22:39 |
| de-facto | old paper but still relevant imho | 22:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and the next one I hear >>mimimi we followd all rules, and now we get punished<< gets a kick in the balls by me >:-( or at least I'd like to | 22:40 |
| de-facto | so that has to be taken into account when comparing Reff to the summer | 22:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | your diagram about that other corona virus was very enlightening. I think it doesn't need any more than that to understand what's going on | 22:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Italy surpasses UK for worst COVID-19 death toll in Europe: Italy on Sunday eclipsed Britain to become the nation with the worst official coronavirus death toll in Europe. → https://is.gd/IkYR2u | 22:44 |
| LjL | an exciting race | 22:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Laschet >>FFP2 masks, quick tests, all that became available only very recently and we immediately provide and roll out them now<< LIE!!! FFP2 masks were always available no problem | 22:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | quicktests also are not a yesterday's invention | 22:47 |
| de-facto | i thought Belgium would be the worst hit country in Europe | 22:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there waere FFP2 shortages in march and april iirc | 22:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | were* | 22:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: >>worst COVID-19 death toll<< is a very fuzzy term | 22:49 |
| de-facto | yeah Belgium is 1.5-fold the deaths than Italy per capita | 22:50 |
| de-facto | i hope they did not compare absolute numbers not normalized to population | 22:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | total number, /100k, /100k7d, per 1000 infections? | 22:50 |
| de-facto | lol they compared totals | 22:51 |
| de-facto | omg thats embarrasing for them | 22:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's media | 22:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | as long as the headline sells... | 22:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | look, they made you click it ;-) | 22:52 |
| de-facto | yeah and why not sell quicktests in the supermarket | 22:53 |
| de-facto | but wait, then people could test prior to Christmas visiting their families, that should not be possible... | 22:54 |
| de-facto | a negative quicktest may give somewhat safety of almost a day or such, so if everyone could test on everyday during Christmas it would be a bit win, yet only MDs can buy those tests LOL | 22:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the problem is much more trivial and typically german: tests for "meldepflichtige krankheiten" are not legal for non-medical personal users. They made one excemption in the past for AIDS tests. Now for corona but >>ONLY for teachers [quote: my pharmacy]<< See buzzword "Aerztevorbehalt" | 22:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's driving a sane person nuts | 23:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I was just too pissed to ask my pharmacy how the heck they will *verify*/check if I'm a teacher or not | 23:02 |
| de-facto | i dont care about the law, they should make it happen, give the tests in the hands of the people | 23:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I just mumbled >>then I got this wrong with "Aerztevorbehalt aufgehoben" - nevermind, in internet you can order them any time in any quantity<< | 23:03 |
| de-facto | yeah but many people cant order in the internet, i was astonished when someone was asking me where i bought my mask and i told in the internet they were like uhm i dont have a computer | 23:04 |
| de-facto | they should sell them in the supermarket, maybe even with subvention by the govermnent | 23:05 |
| de-facto | make them dirt cheap, like 1€ per test or such | 23:05 |
| de-facto | make them print warnings on it that they cant guarantee safety and only can estimate about a day or such | 23:06 |
| de-facto | just like with cigarettes | 23:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>they were like uhm i dont have a computer<< umm I don't have paypal, neither a credit card | 23:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, I completely agree tests SHALL be available locally, whether in pharmacy or supermarket I don't care. But... see above, it's GERMANY :-S | 23:13 |
| de-facto | yeah they think they want to evaluate the tests then slowly release them into the hands of the people | 23:13 |
| de-facto | in general that would be a good approach, it only has one problem: its TOO slow | 23:13 |
| de-facto | right now we need more like: DO IT then think later about how to address those problems that arise from it not being perfect | 23:15 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yeah, until politics and bureaucracy agree on the mandatory wording of the warning on the test package, we got the next pandemia already | 23:15 |
| de-facto | something like that (well hopefully not) but it really is frustrating how slow the management reacts | 23:16 |
| de-facto | IMHO it should be done in DAYs not months | 23:16 |
| de-facto | same for vaccinations, and all what is needed for it, buy it now and put it into storage, pile it up so as soon as there is approvement, in the same hour they should start giving it to people | 23:17 |
| de-facto | then vaccinate as many as possible in as short time as possible | 23:18 |
| de-facto | not slowly start, doing it over years and years | 23:18 |
| de-facto | nope it should be done within a months or such | 23:18 |
| de-facto | *within one month | 23:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +9 deaths (now 5985) since 21 hours ago | 23:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: with vaccine there's a very pragmatic supply issue. I think we'll not slow down vaccination deliberately | 23:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | BioNTech/Pfizer started production of the vaccine ahead of tests already, in the hope it will be a success story | 23:33 |
| LjL | when doing that there's always the risk that they'll do whatever it takes to make it a success story (i.e. not to make their vaccines go to waste). i'm not saying that's happening but i think it's something that should be paid very close attention to with all these vaccines | 23:33 |
| LjL | r/covid19 can ban me all they want, but just being >50% and meeting initial FDA requirements should *not* be enough to be approved | 23:34 |
| LjL | and then some people warn about the adverse reactions with the Pfizer vaccine. well, i don't know if they are as bad as these people claim, and these people are likely to be anti-vax. but i think it shouldn't be dismissed at all as a concern. we're basically going to have phase 4 trials on just random people. at the very least, they should be monitored as closely as possible (which is different from just writing on approval papers that they should be | 23:35 |
| LjL | monitored) | 23:35 |
| de-facto | afaik they do exactly that, continue monitoring people, not only from the phase III trials, they follow them up to 2 years or such | 23:37 |
| de-facto | so they constantly keep an eye on all emerging issues etc | 23:37 |
| de-facto | honestly i would go for an mRNA vaccination right now if i was give then opportunity | 23:38 |
| de-facto | btw thats why they call it "emergency authorization", its not like a normal authorization | 23:39 |
| LjL | i'm talking about the people who get vaccinated in the general population, not those in the trials | 23:39 |
| LjL | are they going to follow everyone up individually for two years? | 23:39 |
| LjL | yes, sure, it's an emergency authorization; there should also be emergency monitoring (meaning more than usual, of course, not less than usual) | 23:40 |
| de-facto | yeah i know, well obviously they cant follow up everyone, but afaik they continue with collecting data and keep a close eye on all emerging adverse reactions and side effects | 23:40 |
| de-facto | yes i think they actually are doing that (emergency monitoring) | 23:40 |
| LjL | Bell's palsy, they simply do not know in any meaningful sense whether it's related to the vaccine. i think in normal times they'd run another trial to find out, instead they'll just be finding out on the people who receive the vaccine outside of the trials | 23:40 |
| de-facto | yeah, they are going to watch very closely for such cases | 23:41 |
| de-facto | and many other possible "worst case" endpoints | 23:41 |
| de-facto | that does not mean at all that those are going to happen, it only means they are paying close attention to specific scenarios | 23:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | your're supposed to report generally *all* adverse reactions you experience. That's not even a new thing with covid or new remedies. It's a permanent best practice in Germany at least | 23:42 |
| LjL | who is "they", though? Pfizer may be paying attention, but if i complain of a symptom to my GP, my GP should refer it higher up the chain... but... wait... my GP doesn't even answer the phone! (actually she does, but there's been TON of people in Italy denouncing that their GPs aren't answering the phone anymore) | 23:43 |
| de-facto | the EMA and PEI in Germany for example | 23:43 |
| de-facto | they constantly are asking the manufacturers for providing more data | 23:44 |
| de-facto | and probably also the vaccination centers and clinics | 23:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | initial phase of vaccine rollout is targeted at medically non-ignorant health care personal and closely monitored care home elderly. The "free to public" phase is supposed to be run in regular medical doctor offices and the doctors _will_ (or shall) do monitoring | 23:45 |
| de-facto | i think they are not clear yet if they want to let normal doctors do those vaccinations, at least not in the short term | 23:45 |
| de-facto | afaik their strategy targets vaccination centers | 23:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I said "free to everybody" phase (2) | 23:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | vaccination centers are for phase 1 | 23:46 |
| de-facto | yes the mass vaccinations | 23:46 |
| de-facto | im not sure if that is the case, id assume they target to scale | 23:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | nope, not the info I got so far | 23:47 |
| de-facto | i mean vaccination centers obviously are not for elderly care homes, also not for medical personal (they can do it locally in their clinics etc), hence they target the general population | 23:47 |
| LjL | de-facto, the vaccination centers may *do* the vaccinations, but are they also going to be the ones monitoring the vaccinated people? calling them on the phone and asking them if they experience any side effects one or two months later, for example? | 23:48 |
| de-facto | and that would make sense not only because of coldchain supply but also to bundle experienced vaccinators in such centers (e.g. they know what happens when they give the vaccine) and also to ensure that no MDs give out "fake vaccination certs" etc | 23:49 |
| genera | https://www.bfarm.de/DE/Arzneimittel/Pharmakovigilanz/RisikenMelden/NebenwirkungsmeldungBuerger/_node.html not sure what Bundesopiumstelle is | 23:49 |
| de-facto | LjL, good question, probably not, would make more sense to give that task to the "house doctors" that know their patients history | 23:49 |
| de-facto | nice link genera thanks :) | 23:51 |
| genera | its on most Beipackzettel | 23:51 |
| de-facto | thats exactly how reporting is going to happen i guess, from the "house doctors" of the people via such internet forms to BfArM and Paul-Ehrlich-Instituts (PEI) | 23:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: it might be not already decided upon, anyway https://www.nuernberg.de/internet/stadtportal/corona_impfung.html and they have a max 1000/d there and plan to dismantle the center at 30. Juni 2021 , so if they would run at full load and counting in weekends and the remote teams in buses, we would maybe get a 399k vaccination for a 150k individuals until then, in a town with 550k citizens | 23:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | s.399.300. | 23:55 |
| de-facto | hmm why would they dismantle the center when everything goes very well and efficiently though? | 23:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I think the medical doctor office approach is highly plausible once they solved the -80°C issue | 23:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Tony Hsieh's last months are a tragic reminder of how Covid isolation can worsen mental health — here's how to help → https://is.gd/F07qIQ | 23:57 |
| de-facto | i am not so sure if that is the best idea in the light of some MDs doing suspicious stuff like attesting not to wear masks etc | 23:57 |
| de-facto | the majority of them would do it well though id assume | 23:58 |
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