libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-01-03

LjLperhaps because for now they have some (if not enough) Pfizer but not really any AZ yet. i don't really know. like i said it's hearsay anyway (namely: my dad read it somewhere), so take it with a grain of salt, maybe it's not even true00:00
LjLi'll just say i don't find it beyond belief that the UK would do something incredibly stupid... i'll leave it at that00:00
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Mutations arising in SARS-CoV-2 spike on sustained human-to-human transmission and human-to-animal passage:  Robert F. Garry1,2 1Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University Medical Center, 1430 Tulane Avenue, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112 USA; E-Mail: rfgarry@tulane.edu 2Zalgen Labs, LLC, Germantown, MD, USA [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/0mPluB00:19
de-factoexperimenting on humans with unproven vaccination schemes in unethical imho. they should stick *absolutely* strictly to the schemes for which their vaccines have been approved.00:43
de-factowhy would they even consider such a thing?00:43
de-factotheir first priority should be to force incidence down absolutely strictly. their second priority should be to scale up production of vaccines somehow. then go with the tested protocol by evidence based science.00:47
de-factoUK did so well in terms of scientific approaches, why would they throw it now all overboard and begin with wildly experimenting? this all would be beyond crazy. they MUST adhere to the proven schemes, also NOT omit the second shot in exactly the correct time. there wont be enough vaccines for everyone, so they should give second shots the absolute highest priority ensuring all of them can be given in time. omit first shots if necessary.00:50
LjLde-facto, well apparently they are already more-than-considering giving the booster shot later, even in the case of Pfizer, where that wasn't tested...00:53
LjLadmittedly that's a far cry from mixing vaccines, but it's still not what the protocol did00:53
de-factowhy on earth would they do that? i mean why having any trials at all and approving vaccines if later they just would go ahead and improvise about everything?00:54
de-factoi cant believe they really would do that, i think UK got good scientists that would not allow for that00:55
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Larry King has been hospitalized with Covid-19 → https://is.gd/hGmsad00:56
de-factojust imagine they would loose trust of the public and finally when vaccines would be available for everyone noone wants them anymore?00:56
de-factothat would be catastrophic, hence they should do everything to ensure its safe, and the best thing imho is to stick to the statistically proven shemes00:56
de-factoschemes00:56
de-factoi mean if they want to establish new schemes, fine why not? but then go ahead with a phase III trial for exactly that scheme and get it approved with just the same process that other vaccines also required00:58
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +25 deaths (now 7729) since 21 hours ago01:10
LjLi think you have a slightly idealized view of the UK government and its relation with science there01:29
LjLduring the first wave they were *this* close to "doing it the Sweden way"01:29
de-factohmm but they got so many really good approaches, like those screening studies etc01:31
de-factoalso the AZ trial design was one of the best, if they only had sticked to their protocols and not started to improvise at some point01:32
LjLsure, it would have been great if it hadn't been so bad01:33
LjLanyway, Oxford/AstraZeneca aren't the UK gov01:33
LjLwhat are the screening studies you're referring to, anyway?01:34
de-factoREACT for example01:34
de-factoor was it REACT2?01:35
de-factoalso their sequencing01:35
de-factoat least it looks very good from outside01:35
LjLREACT2 is run by Imperial College. i think Imperial College has mostly come up with good things01:36
LjLbut i think there may be a stark difference between programs that are run, and actual decisions that are made01:37
LjLof course, to run programs you also need to make a decision to run them, granted01:37
LjLbut then there are the bigger political decisions (which you might argue should be scientific rather than political, but well, usually, they aren't)01:37
de-factoyeah you are probably right, RKI also does a great job in Germany, not so much the govermnent01:44
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pharmacist arrested after deliberately destroying 500 doses of COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/pyg3Yc02:21
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Talk show host Larry King hospitalized with COVID-19 → https://is.gd/jF6Phh04:11
Mark_for like a week already, right?04:36
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +19 cases (now 2181) since 3 days ago04:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese vaccine’s arrival in Turkey delayed, as Ankara is forced to agree to extradite Uighurs to China → https://is.gd/rtPxL504:47
scheidegg[m]There is no Virus05:01
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +880 cases (now 649169), +63 deaths (now 19644) since 23 hours ago05:37
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Some covid survivors haunted by loss of smell and taste → https://is.gd/kpPRbc05:49
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak → https://is.gd/xmO9Ur06:01
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 702: Year of the Pandemic: For this first episode of 2021, the complete TWiV team reviews compelling virology stories of 2020, and thanks the multitude of guests who have helped us to navigate the pandemic, and our many listeners who turn to us for scientific facts. → https://is.gd/NdM28R06:14
whytekUnrelated to that last line, but I just had a conversation with a bordering on denier...06:17
whytekWhile I tried to bring it all down to earth with, well "neither of us can do more that speculate....", a couple of questions came up for me.06:18
whytekWhat is the actual recovery rate?06:18
whytekWhat is this speculation that people may be unlikely to return for second shot due to highly unpleasant symptoms after first shot. 06:19
whytekIt was proposed to me that this is a concern... hence wasting all those 1st shots.06:19
whyteks/symptoms/feeling of being unwell06:20
whytekLooks to me like press blew that out of proportion in November due to some North American making a video.06:23
whytekYeah, ok.. so most media had headlines of "volunteerS" plural... but then only go out to quote that one guy.06:24
whytek*on06:25
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +11011 cases (now 1.8 million) since 16 hours ago06:26
ubLIX[m]whytek: all you can do is read, watch, and research in a discriminating way. why detain yourself with the ebb and flow and froth of every unsubstantiated musing06:31
ubLIX[m]for example, the 'most credible' article indirectly linked above by Brainstorm is from the Daily Mail. if there is any substance to the story, it will be picked up by more credible sources. if nothing more credible appears, forget it.06:33
whytekHmm. I am not seeing Brainstorm 06:36
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A nursing home in Belgium had a holiday party. It led to 27 coronavirus deaths. → https://is.gd/J9bYqR06:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China clamps down in hidden hunt for coronavirus origins → https://is.gd/eHyYhf07:02
BrainstormUpdates for Florida, United States: +31518 cases (now 1.4 million), +217 deaths (now 21890) since 2 days ago — Tennessee, United States: +17330 cases (now 604132), +63 deaths (now 6970) since 2 days ago — Ohio, United States: +14293 cases (now 714673), +55 deaths (now 9017) since 2 days ago — Illinois, United States: +11963 cases (now 975352), +236 deaths (now 18214) since 2 days ago07:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China is guarding ancient bat caves against journalists and scientists seeking to discover the origins of the coronavirus → https://is.gd/yEzFK207:39
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US distributes over 13.07 mln doses of COVID-19 vaccines; 4.2 mln administered → https://is.gd/MZ4dJz08:03
BrainstormUpdates for Anguilla: +2 cases (now 15) since 5 days ago08:05
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Growing body of evidence’ shows COVID-19 leaked from Chinese lab: US official → https://is.gd/ySn4Lw08:16
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China blockades bat caves where scientists hope coronavirus clues lie → https://is.gd/AYGl0O08:40
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 03, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/ol4Gsn09:05
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: India approves vaccines from Bharat Biotech and Oxford/AstraZeneca → https://is.gd/yN2RdG09:54
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +11510 cases (now 1.8 million) since 20 hours ago10:03
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: COVID-19: Indonesia adds 7,203 cases in single day | 03JAN21 → https://is.gd/z3JqKa10:30
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: BBC News: Primary schools: Send children to school on Monday, says PM → https://is.gd/L1TXgb11:07
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Growing body of evidence’ shows COVID-19 leaked from Chinese lab: US official → https://is.gd/hMjZPz11:31
MartinStenzel[m]<Brainstorm "New from r/WorldNews: worldnews:"> Never trust statements from U. S. officials, remember the Iraq war lie (one of a thousands of examples)?11:36
MartinStenzel[m]<MartinStenzel[m] "Never trust statements from U. S"> The U. S. Americans are great in creating the "most horrible enemy" - be it the Soviet, the Russian, the Chinese, the East European, the ...11:38
elchupacabra420[Same as tschaina, russia, pp. Just trust no one.11:39
MartinStenzel[m]Hi there, one "simple" question to the room members: In Germany, as today, vaccination is started exclusively in the elderly persons, not the medical staff. Is this the same as in YOUR country? Wishes!11:46
elchupacabra420[Well do you know which country has highest vaccsrate till now? guess who 😅11:53
MartinStenzel[m]<elchupacabra420[ "Well do you know which country h"> Tell us!11:54
elchupacabra420[Rather not...11:55
MartinStenzel[m]<elchupacabra420[ "Rather not..."> This morning I had a great discussion with my wife regarding injustice in this world...11:56
generahttps://www.hessenschau.de/gesellschaft/corona-impfung-in-hessen-reibungslos-angelaufen,impfung-bilanz-100.html11:58
MartinStenzel[m]<genera "https://www.hessenschau.de/gesel"> das ist wohl wieder einmal Sache der Bundesländer!? In NRW sind die Mediziner wohl erst einmal "außen vor".12:01
generai dont know. i have just remembered a picture of this nurse but not this pic12:01
generahttps://www.hessenschau.de/gesellschaft/corona-impfungen-in-hessen-gestartet,impfstart-100.html12:05
generai almost faint12:05
elchupacabra420[Martin Stenzel: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=latest..latest12:10
elchupacabra420[But the country where vacc was invented at first  mystically "forgot " to pre-order.12:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sweden crisis worsens after its anti-lockdown stance proven a failure → https://is.gd/euvUWJ12:32
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Palestinians excluded from Israeli Covid vaccine rollout as jabs go to settlers - Human rights groups accuse Israel of dodging obligations to millions in occupied territories who may wait months for vaccination → https://is.gd/2tG5Me12:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Hospitals begin receiving doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine → https://is.gd/UjoOCa13:20
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort → https://is.gd/t34tLR13:33
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +11513 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago13:40
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Palestinians excluded from Israeli Covid vaccine rollout as jabs go to settlers → https://is.gd/cklme413:45
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China reports 24 new COVID-19 cases vs. 22 a day earlier → https://is.gd/EvVjwY13:57
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +20 deaths (now 7745) since 22 hours ago14:11
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: ^^^ >>Palestinians excluded from Israeli Covid vaccine...<< I guess the statistics from Israel need a reconsideration14:20
de-factohow you mean that?14:33
de-factoVaccinations Germany per 100k citizens: Baden-Württemberg: 180.58; Bayern: 297.19; Berlin: 358.01; Brandenburg: 127.64; Bremen: 255.58; Hamburg: 164.68; Hessen: 394.25; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 714.74; Niedersachsen: 49.35; Nordrhein-Westfalen: 185.96; Rheinland-Pfalz: 168.49; Saarland: 336.01; Sachsen: 98.23; Sachsen-Anhalt: 536.32; Schleswig-Holstein: 274.26; Thüringen: 37.97; Gesamt: 226.7214:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Most Healthcare Professionals in the US Refuse to Get the COVID-19 Vaccine → https://is.gd/1sUZJ414:47
de-factoVaccinations Germany per 100k citizens (indication by age, medical or elderly care home): Baden-Württemberg: 123.23; Bayern: 173.89; Berlin: 506.44; Brandenburg: 17.76; Bremen: 156.19; Hamburg: 133.71; Hessen: 279; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 310.3; Niedersachsen: 49.57; Nordrhein-Westfalen: 120; Rheinland-Pfalz: 91.16; Saarland: 385.25; Sachsen: 23.98; Sachsen-Anhalt: 458.81; Schleswig-Holstein: 251.81; Thüringen: 30.23; Gesamt: 160.6914:49
de-factoVaccinations Germany per 100k citizens (indication by profession): Baden-Württemberg: 55.72; Bayern: 148.57; Berlin: 90.45; Brandenburg: 118.76; Bremen: 59.89; Hamburg: 92.19; Hessen: 230.28; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 409.36; Niedersachsen: 26.33; Nordrhein-Westfalen: 66; Rheinland-Pfalz: 77.33; Saarland: 33.95; Sachsen: 81.53; Sachsen-Anhalt: 262.44; Schleswig-Holstein: 161.51; Thüringen: 13.92; Gesamt: 104.2414:51
de-factoMartinStenzel[m], ^^ there you can see the stats by the indications for vaccination in Germany14:53
de-factosource: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquotenmonitoring14:54
MartinStenzel[m]<de-facto "Vaccinations Germany per 100k ci"> Thank you for the information!14:54
de-factothose are the numbers from yesterday you can get percentage if you divide by 1000 hence 226.72 per 100k would be 0.22672% of population14:57
de-factothat would be roughly ~ 1/441 having received the first dose of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine14:59
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Four COVID-19 patients die in Egypt due to alleged lack of oxygen → https://is.gd/o2eq4K14:59
DocScrutinizer05sucks! we completely lost insight into what's going on, since 14 days https://i.imgur.com/8b9tjmG.png15:20
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: New UK COVID-19 vaccine recommendations say 'it is reasonable' for people to mix and match different shots, even though there's not yet evidence that works → https://is.gd/EMR4Ep15:24
DocScrutinizer05well, if UK recommends it, how could it be wrong¿¡  Gosh15:25
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canadian federal government (Justin Trudeau) ready to compensate all non essential travelers 1000$ for 2 weeks quarantine. → https://is.gd/6IO9Vy15:37
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Egypt approves Chinese Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine: Egypt has approved the use of a COVID-19 vaccine developed by Chinese pharma giant Sinopharm with its rollout to start later in January, the health minister said. → https://is.gd/PufqWc15:49
ArsaneritDocScrutinizer05: All Palestinians or Palestinians in occupied territories?  There are many Palestinians in Israel proper too.w15:57
Arsaneritde-facto: what is your source for the sub-national vaccination rates in Germany per Bundesland?15:58
de-factoArsanerit, https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquotenmonitoring15:58
Arsaneritde-facto: thanks15:59
de-factocombined with https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsstand/Tabellen/bevoelkerung-nichtdeutsch-laender.html16:00
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: UK's Johnson warns of more lockdown measures as virus soars: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Sunday that more onerous lockdown restrictions in England are likely as the country reels from a new coronavirus variant that has pushed infection rates to their highest recorded levels. → https://is.gd/PHbTgJ16:01
de-factoArsanerit, also if you want population by state and age groups: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2020/12/PD20_N082_122.html16:03
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: yeha, no idea. I shouldn't have commented16:04
generathat xlsx has 0 for NRW/RLP/Saar for medical professionals??16:04
generaand in Sachsen: 116:04
DocScrutinizer05reporting prolly more fubar than the campaign itself16:05
de-factoafaik Israel encouraged its arabic citizens to also go for vaccinations with their religious leaders being example and getting it first (i read in some newspapers if i remember correctly)16:07
ArsaneritI would expect that there are relatively more jews rejecting vaccinations for religious reasons than muslims.16:08
ArsaneritI might be wrong.  It strikes me as an idea consistent with orthodox religions.16:08
DocScrutinizer05yep, absolutely16:10
Arsaneritalthough it seems the majority of those currently not willing to be vaccinated do so because they fear side effects, not for principled/religious reasons.16:11
DocScrutinizer05or chips ;-P16:11
DocScrutinizer05those sissis! back when we had to roll up the 8" floppies before inserting themn rectally16:12
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Lockdowns, curfews, alcohol bans as nations fight resurgent virus: Countries across the world tightened restrictions on their populations Saturday to fight a resurgence in the coronavirus, as the European Union offered to help drug companies expand vaccine production to improve distribution "bottlenecks". → https://is.gd/9ygZKm16:14
DocScrutinizer05then, I still wonder which OS is running that chop mass control. WINDOWS????16:14
DocScrutinizer05chip*16:14
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: I wonder if those folks are aware that the virus itself will cause exactly same plus then some side effects16:16
DocScrutinizer05well, there's exactly one side effect that's unique to vaccine and not shared by virus: allergic reaction from lipids. Gosh, I'd get the shot even if I was guaranteed to get an allergic reaction16:20
DocScrutinizer05applies to the mRNA vaccines ^^^16:21
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Regional rules 'probably going to get tougher', says Boris Johnson → https://is.gd/XlJDye16:38
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +75156 cases (now 2.6 million), +599 deaths (now 74910) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +7810 cases (now 822525), +43 deaths (now 11628) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4051 cases (now 590359), +54 deaths (now 15715) since 22 hours ago17:11
Jigsyhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5552158017:19
Jigsy%title17:19
BrainstormJigsy: From www.bbc.co.uk: Primary schools: Send children to school on Monday, says PM - BBC News17:19
JigsyCases today? 54,000ish.17:19
de-factowhat could possibly go wrong with that?17:19
JigsyI know, right?17:20
de-factoMaybe parents should organize a combined refuse to send their children to school unless local incidence is below a reasonable level17:20
elchupacabra420[Yeah they could bring them to their grandparents instead so theyre able to go out for work.17:21
elchupacabra420[Oh. Wait.17:21
Mark_isnt it parents that are insisting they have a place to send their kids?17:21
Mark_schools as babysitters?17:21
Mark_dont most places have a virtual option?17:21
Mark_local governments are being dumb but its citizens are complicit17:22
de-factoimho it would be a good investment to establish a fully remote digital school and give the children the devices and competence to participate17:22
de-factobut yeah fair point with the parents needing someone to take care of their kids, so why not pay them for employing babysitters that register to a static social bubble and dont change that?17:24
JigsySend the kids to work and the parents to school.17:24
de-factosurely its not all of them in need for that17:24
Jigsy3>It does mildly boil my piss that advice on parenting is being dispensed by someone who can't even accurately count their children.17:25
elchupacabra420[pay them? With what exavtly? And didnt they already paid with taxes for exactly that already?17:25
DocScrutinizer05Jigsy: could you please refrain from using color codes?17:26
elchupacabra420[Childcare and education, at least if youre not in 3rd world.17:26
JigsyI don't mind, but why?17:26
DocScrutinizer05to start with, for legibility aka contrast17:27
elchupacabra420[de-facto: Most your thoughts seem to be extremely ivory-towerd to me 17:28
DocScrutinizer05then, it doesn't add any info to the post17:28
elchupacabra420[Like a silver spooned child of academical upper class17:29
JigsyFair enough.17:29
elchupacabra420[:)17:29
de-factoelchupacabra420[, what alternative would you suggest to reopening schools then?17:32
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israeli mother injured in Palestinian stone attack on way to COVID test → https://is.gd/3hoMqJ17:39
elchupacabra420[there arent many options, this year would be as lost as the last for students anyway. Dividing classes onto smaller groups,2-shiftsystem, block class, masks and disinfection to maintain a minimum emergency shooling. And even that is ridiculous given the state of these institutions beforehand 17:43
elchupacabra420[in the whole still remembers nearly to middle of last century... 17:45
elchupacabra420[Well they suspended whipping and added some fancy overheadlrojectors mid80s.17:48
de-factowell imho for aged that would not need to be under surveillance by adults anymore the digital classes would be the best alternative. and afaik its those ages (not very young) that are suspected to generate most additional incidence17:49
de-factoi agree that there would have to be some sort of emergency care for young children of parents that could not take care of their own children due to their professions or such17:50
de-factoyet i still think putting them together in big groups is a bad idea, even with the good concepts you mentioned above17:50
generanot sure they really suspended17:51
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Regional rules 'probably going to get tougher', says Boris Johnson → https://is.gd/XlJDye17:52
JigsyUnless they start executing people who go outside, I don't possibly see how.17:55
JigsyThey're not doing anything now.17:56
euod[m]  life ruiningly large fines would be fun. 18:09
euod[m]go to a party? $100k, undismissable lean on your income.18:09
elchupacabra420[Pretending vacc works as expected it would cost us another year.18:13
elchupacabra420[we should consider a lockdown "extra spicy " wuhanstyle.18:14
elchupacabra420[No one leaves his rooms for 2w, everyone except 18:17
elchupacabra420[Medical, police and secuity outside will be detained in camps. Mandatory negati etest whoever wants to get back then. No exceptions.18:17
ubLIX[m]food deliverers. you forgot food deliverers18:19
elchupacabra420[By military or such direct delivery of staplefood18:20
elchupacabra420[No such things like dogwalking, let them poo inside18:21
elchupacabra420[Maybe we could reboot till march that way18:22
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +14245 cases (now 2.2 million), +347 deaths (now 75332) since 23 hours ago18:26
ubLIX[m]doing that in a city of 11 million is one thing. but can the logistics possibly scale for an uncontrolled epidemic in a small country of tens of millions, or countries with hundreds of millions18:26
ubLIX[m]Wuhan's effort required the influx of vast resources from unaffected outside regions18:27
ubLIX[m]how will this requirement for outside resources be met when there is no outside18:27
euod[m]it's not like western "lockdowns" have done much though.18:27
LjLuh, i would say they have18:27
euod[m]everyone still goes about their day as usual. 18:27
LjLsure, with a police form filled18:28
LjLwhich hopefully isn't lying18:28
euod[m]huh?18:28
euod[m]right, some people are doing it better.18:28
LjLi cannot go outside without printing and filling in a form that explains why (and it has to be an "accepted" reason)18:28
LjLwell, Italy, France and Spain have done it that way18:28
LjLso maybe instead of saying western "lockdowns" just say bad lockdowns18:28
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brain damage of patients with Covid-19 → https://is.gd/IB5krp18:28
LjLour lockdowns have done more or less what they intended to18:28
LjLthey "paused" new cases, then a while after they ended, the cases surged again18:29
LjLwhich was predicted by that old Imperial College paper, so it was expected18:29
LjLthe idea was to massively prepare for the next surge18:29
LjLinstead the obvious mistake was going "oh, we have few cases now, let's ignore the whole thing again"18:29
LjLif you look at, say, Italy vs Sweden, it's not really so different when things add up. the difference is in the *shape* of the curve, with Italy having the long "pause" after the lockdown. so if one expected the lockdown to make a long-term difference without anything else, then it failed. if one simply expected the lockdown to buy a decent amount of time to react (which wasn't done properly), then the lockdown succeeded per se18:31
LjL%fdroid Attestation18:31
BrainstormLjL, Attestation de déplacement 3.5.0 (com.poupa.attestationdeplacement) in https://f-droid.org/repo: Generates the PDF attestation file required by the French government to go out. - updated 2020-12-18, see https://github.com/AdrienPoupa/AttestationDeplacement 18:31
BrainstormLjL, Last time I checked, not all indexes could be downloaded! 18:31
LjL(example of police form for going out)18:31
elchupacabra420[Its like trying to take out a major fire but going home before you purge out all hotspots. Wont work too good.18:32
elchupacabra420[or we could surfride from wave to wave this decade bebause that beast is a life form and evolves.18:36
ubLIX[m]i think the end goal has to be NZ style mandatory 14 day quarantines in secure residential facilities for all incoming travellers (i am thinking of the UK here), which is of course of no value except where in-country epidemic is effectively controlled. so in the meantime, months of build up to logistical capacity for nationwide food deliveries to 60 million people. when the logistics are in place, nationwide 24/7 marshal18:43
ubLIX[m]law for at least 14 days, or until covid is all but eradicated. then onto pedestrian and clipboard contact tracing and maintenance of travellers 14 day quarantines indefinitely.18:43
ubLIX[m]to the extent this program is impossible for a country as inept and corrupt as the UK, we are doomed to the petri dish of escape mutation18:43
euod[m]hey my plan of buying a cabin in the woods doesn't sound so terible now.18:47
LjLubLIX[m], yesterday i read an article about Brexit-related difficulties UK citizens who are Spanish resident faced when boarding planes back to Spain. which is unrelated to COVID, but i realized there was no mention at all of quarantines once in Spain. in Italy, we don't allow people from the UK to enter, but if the rest of Schengen does it differently, that's not much use.18:49
ubLIX[m]LjL: i just saw another commenter report Spanish authorities declared such returning expats now have no right of entry18:51
ubLIX[m]oops18:52
LjLubLIX[m], uh, the article i read said that the embassy (which embassy? i forget) said "that shouldn't happen". but i guess it was specifically about their papers not being accepted by the airlines, not whether they were allowed back in the first place...18:52
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus vaccine: PM expects 'tens of millions' of jabs by April → https://is.gd/TeiB8h18:53
ubLIX[m]the commenter i cite almost certainly gleaned this from the Daily Mail, so.. further research is needed18:57
euod[m]that anybody is flying anywhere is sort of confusing.18:59
Mark_what about vaccinated people19:00
euod[m]Mark_: vaccinated does not mean immune.19:01
Mark_sure, but good enough for air travel?19:01
Mark_whats the goal posts?19:02
ubLIX[m]the question on vaccination programs is how long will it take to produce a population wide effect, and will they remain effective throughout this span of time19:05
de-factoimho air travel should be illegal for passengers until incidence goes down and herd immunity by vaccination proved to be effective in holding it down 19:07
de-factobut people dont understand, they want to be entertained, socialize with friends and have fun, some even go for party etc19:09
de-factoor holidays etc as if we would not know the effects from that 9 months into this19:09
generaFür die Einrichtung gilt seitdem ein Besuchsverbot. Die Sieben-Tage-Inzidenz in der Statd Lollar war auf 1.196 gestiegen.19:11
genera(small town, maybe 5000, and one senior residence, and about half of them tesing positive)19:15
de-factowow.19:23
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Palestinians excluded from Israeli Covid vaccine rollout as jabs go to settlers | Israel transports batches of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine deep inside the West Bank. But they are only distributed to Jewish settlers, and not the roughly 2.7 million Palestinians living around them who may have to wait → https://is.gd/37qSmF19:29
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add press release about final primary endpoint data for Sputnik V → https://is.gd/CwKspR19:54
de-factoRKI Germany COVID-19 2021-01-03 (weekend and new years rep.?): Weekly Incidence 139.6/100k, Infections +10315 (1765666 total), Fatalities +312 (34272 total), COVID@ICU 5759(incl. 3177 on ventilator)20:06
BrainstormUpdates for Ireland: +4961 cases (now 101887), +7 deaths (now 2259) since 23 hours ago20:11
LjLde-facto, "In conclusion, we have shown that the authentic SARS-CoV-2 virus, if constantly pressured, has the ability to escape even a potent polyclonal serum targeting multiple neutralizing epitopes."  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.424451v120:16
LjLlooks like an italian study20:16
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: SARS-CoV-2 Escape in Vitro from a Highly Neutralizing COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma → https://is.gd/8Y5TVN20:18
de-factodamn20:23
de-factoLjL, imho those convalescent plasma therapies are a very bad idea: 1) either they not neutralizing (because the antibodies contained were raised against another variant of the S-protein) hence applying non-neutralizing selection pressure to train viral generations to escape such varieties of antibody populations 20:28
de-factoor 2) even antibody populations that are highly neutralizing may not catch all the virions and since the immune pressure by such convalescent plasma therapies are "static" in a sense that they can not adapt their "direction" by feedback of the current infection strains their targeting of the antigen would deteriorate with time by the antigen mutating away under the selection pressure20:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Teachers in England ‘scared’ and ‘frustrated’ as schools are told to reopen → https://is.gd/fGofo420:30
LjLbut... it might well save the person undergoing the treatment20:31
de-factoand afaik stats for treatment did not look promising at all20:31
LjLit might be bad population-wise20:31
LjLbut it's probably an ethical dilemma for doctors, if they do save people20:31
de-factoim not sure if there are statistically significant results that really underline the assumption that mortality can be lowered by convalescent plasma20:32
de-factomaybe in some rare immuno-compromised cases or such?20:32
de-factoi think the success from the immune response comes from it constantly adapting a "army" of various antibodies spreading with greater variety around the spread of the phylogenetic tree of the initial infection variant20:34
de-factohence every mutant constantly would be surrounded by an army of antibodies following its "mutation trajectory" with time (via feedback) and because the response would be "smoothed" (in epitope binding) it would catch potential escaping mutants with having them in the "middle" of variety20:38
generait means you can still use reconvalescent plasma but you need to put the patient under quarantine for a long time. maybe.20:38
de-factoa convalescent plasma would not have the ability to "follow" such mutation trajectories and as soon as the mutant "goes" to the side arms of the variety of antibodies it would "fall down the hill" by selection pressure, completely out of balance20:39
de-factothat is assuming it was balanced by choosing exactly the correct convalescent plasma for fighting that variant of SARS-CoV-2 antigen20:42
de-factoprobably in the majority of cases the convalescent plasma would already start with an asymmetric variety of neutralizing capability around a given SARS-CoV-2 variant hence give it directional selection pressure (away from the median of the variety) right from beginning20:43
de-factothat is my interpretation, so personal speculation20:44
de-factowhich raises an interesting question: what would happen if they mix up all the convalescent plasma from many many different recoveries, i.e. have a very large variety of antibodies20:49
bn_mobileHas anyone come up with a good durable solution to the cheap rubber bands that keep breaking on N95 masks?  I've already modified to reorient the bands so they loop over the ears vs. the head but one side has gradually gotten shorter as the band & now (thick) staple have broken from repeated repairs (I tried replacing it with 1, then 2, normal staples but it's too thin & keep tearing off).  Any thoughts? 20:50
de-factoi tried to repair some masks with snapped off rubber bands with a stapler20:51
de-factothey did hold so far (because the metal clamp would not snap off so easily)20:51
bn_mobileI was thinking some sort of rope/twine but am uncertain of its comfort level over extended use20:52
de-factoidk maybe the cheap rubber bands could be replaced with more quality (textile containing) ones from tailors store?20:52
bn_mobileOr whether the staples would hold them in. 20:52
de-factoimho the bands going around the head are more convenient over long time periods because after some time pulling behind the ears may hurt20:53
bn_mobilede-facto: do you have an image of these textile type of bands?20:53
de-factoyeah staple them from inside so the metal could not scratch the skin20:53
bn_mobilede-facto: I found the over mounting annoying to take on /off + they stretched the bands more reducing its life20:54
de-factono but i thought such that would be used to build clothes (yet use the thinnest because otherwise the pulling force would be too strong)20:54
bn_mobiles/over/over-head/20:55
de-factoyeah everyone probably got different preferences in that regard, from my experience the ones over head turned out to be more comfy for me to wear long time (e.g. 8h a day or such=20:55
bn_mobilede-facto: oh, you mean for like undergarments & such?20:56
de-factoyeah but the thinnest of such20:57
de-factoprobably might have better quality because meant for more longterm usage even including washing etc20:57
de-factoyet if it got flat and not circular cross section it might be more easy to fix it  on the mask20:58
de-factoand also be more comfy to wear20:59
de-factothough i have to admit i did not experiment with those myself, i only fixed the ones that shipped with the mask itself20:59
de-factoi read some of the more expensive 3M N95 masks would have more high quality rubber bands (probably mitigating the main reason to throw away masks, even if they are meant for only one time usage officially)21:00
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Palestinians excluded from Israeli Covid vaccine rollout as jabs go to settlers → https://is.gd/5gYMJl21:07
bn_mobileI just found some overstretched elastic-ish twine for an old mask that no longer stays up, maybe if I cut a piece out, I could solve two problems at once, lol21:08
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: "This saddens me" - Pope condemns travelling abroad to escape coronavirus lockdowns → https://is.gd/LcXDk321:19
BrainstormUpdates for France: +91 deaths (now 65002) since 23 hours ago21:44
LjLubLIX[m], https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/theprevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications21:48
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pope 'saddened' that people are vacationing to flee COVID-19 lockdowns → https://is.gd/0qJk9122:09
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Palestinians excluded from Israeli Covid vaccine rollout as jabs go to settlers → https://is.gd/Ayr6fh22:21
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Fauci: Vaccinations are ramping up in a 'glimmer of hope': The U.S. ramped up COVID-19 vaccinations in the past few days after a slower-than-expected start, bringing the number of shots dispensed to about 4 million, government health officials said Sunday. → https://is.gd/kcIpp522:46
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: South Africa hopes to begin virus vaccinations next month: South Africa, which has been hard hit by a second wave of coronavirus cases, hopes to obtain its first vaccine doses next month, the health minister announced Sunday. → https://is.gd/02Vqtg22:58
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add ONS page about long COVID estimates → https://is.gd/cuCOgb23:23
BrainstormUpdates for Chad: +44 cases (now 2213) since a day ago — Germany: +5115 cases (now 1.8 million) since 16 hours ago23:23
BrainstormUpdates for Grenada: +1 deaths (now 1) since 4 days ago23:54

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