libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-01-24

DocScrutinizer05moin! what's the news of the day?00:11
LjLDocScrutinizer05: AstraZeneca will give the EU -60% vaccines in the first quarter, unless you already heard of that yesterday00:16
DocScrutinizer05AZ allegedly has troubles with one of the suppliers of basic matwerial00:16
LjLAlso Portugal is spiking and based on the distribution of nextstrain sequences, it makes sense in that they have a lot of UK variant00:16
DocScrutinizer05so yes, they announced a 60% cut00:16
DocScrutinizer05LjL: oh, thanks for the latter, completely missed that00:17
LjLde-facto said he heard in Tagesschau that, somehow, the AZ shortages will affect the EU but not the UK00:17
DocScrutinizer05o.O00:17
LjLthere's a lot of allegations of vaccine manufacturers prioritizing the countries that paid more for it00:17
LjLSo maybe the fact the EU "got good deals" when contracting as a block is kinda backfiring00:18
DocScrutinizer05possible, such contracts are complex and this could be one of the pitfalls00:18
DocScrutinizer05also while Bolsonaro is a jackass, when he said >>when you turn into a crocodile, nobody cares<< was pretty much to the point. They didn't negotiate liability for side effects with manufs, unlike EU00:22
DocScrutinizer05media twisted that into a >>Bolsonaro said: vaccination will turn you into a crocodile<< which is also BS00:23
DocScrutinizer05people forgot how to discuss a topic in a reasonable manner00:26
LjLDocScrutinizer05: so wait, do you mean the EU makes manufacturers liable, or that it doesn't? (What I knew was that it did, unlike for example the US, but that was in general, I don't know how the COVID negotiations ended up shaping the situation)00:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: European countries are growing increasingly frustrated with delays in the delivery of COVID-19 vaccinations. Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca told EU officials that production problems will result in a 60% cut in deliveries of its Oxford vaccine to the bloc during the first quarter of this year. → https://is.gd/COxZqk00:57
gigasu_shidalol DocScrutinizer05 00:58
DocScrutinizer05LjL: I think EU negotiated full liability with/at the manufs01:24
LjLDocScrutinizer05, that's what i thought they were bound to do as well, since i read it was an EUCJ ruling that established manufacturer liability, so in theory they can't just override that01:24
DocScrutinizer05I don't kniow details. I heard it been a topic of negotiations in several countries and the EU has manufs liable contracts01:26
DocScrutinizer05my point actually just was: contracts are a lot more complex than I originally thought for a short first moment01:27
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The U.K. variant of COVID-19 is behind a devastating outbreak that has torn through an Ontario long-term care home, killing 32 and infecting all but two residents. 84 workers have become sick. → https://is.gd/8Pus5f01:35
DocScrutinizer05so, a >>the AZ shortages will affect the EU but not the UK<< might wellbe one of the results of that complexity01:51
LjLDocScrutinizer05, de-facto: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/l3ea9e/autumn_covid19_surge_dates_in_europe_correlated/gken4j6/  (the comment, not [just] the study! ;)01:54
LjLthere are also a bunch of critical comments that seem to make good points01:57
LjL(why only northern hemisphere; why only 18 countries; what about Arizona and Florida; what if it has nothing to do with vitamin D but everything to do with UV killing the virus in air)01:57
BrainstormUpdates for Nigeria: +2464 cases (now 120602), +12 deaths (now 1502) since a day ago — France: +17801 cases (now 3.1 million), +230 deaths (now 72877) since 23 hours ago — Barbados: +144 cases (now 1341) since 9 hours ago — Netherlands: +4174 cases (now 947908), +66 deaths (now 13519) since 23 hours ago02:34
DocScrutinizer05>>It is more likely this correlation is primarily UV inactivating the virus somehow.<<  hmm, I seem to recall I said pretty much same thing02:49
dTalIf that panned out as an explanation, I would feel really stupid for not even suspecting that *highly obvious* correlation02:56
LjLwell it's been brought up before02:57
LjLit's plausible, but other things are plausible too02:57
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia's child vaccination rates exceed 95 per cent target → https://is.gd/a1cuEX03:00
p1gasssuseems like temperature checks aren't very helpful, smell test would be better 03:32
izi think fever is still better, percentage-wise; https://healthnewshub.org/the-top-7-covid-19-symptoms-ranked/03:39
p1gasssuyes but seems those are for those with symptoms, doesn't mention smell ?03:46
LjLwell it's definitely less than 83-99% for anosmia, though03:47
p1gasssusorry I see they added smell, but was reading this https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/world/stinky-strips-of-paper-could-in-theory-help-drive-down-virus-transmission.html03:47
LjLbut it's tricky because if articles like that were written before it was recognized that anosmia was a frequently ignored symptom... it's looking only at the non-anosmic portion of the people with symptoms03:47
LjLskewing all the numbers03:47
p1gasssu Studies have found that about 50 to 90 percent of people who test positive for the coronavirus experience some degree of measurable smell loss,03:48
LjLthat's a large range03:49
p1gasssuIn contrast, only a minority of people with Covid-19 end up spiking a temperature. Fevers also tend to be fleeting, while anosmia can linger for days.03:49
LjLoh anosmia can linger for...ever03:49
LjLor at least, there are people who have "recovered" since months but still have it to some extent03:49
p1gasssuyes, have read about those cases03:50
LjLhow would you devise an anosmia test, anyway? you need to take into account people lying, because these tests are usually done to screen people who *want* to travel by air or similar things03:50
LjLi guess you'd have to have them smell something, and guess what it is03:50
LjLbut smells are hard to describe even for people with no anosmia03:51
p1gasssuhave a look @ the Jan 20 nyt write up, if interested , fever screens are used in a lot of places now , schools hospitals restaurants03:51
BrainstormUpdates for Togo: +91 cases (now 4636) since a day ago03:55
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Quebec researchers say they have found an effective drug to fight COVID-19 → https://is.gd/GTUMjK04:22
LjLp1gasssu, if it covers different categories of smells and tackles the issue of people being able to lie, it may be a decent tool04:22
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +7 cases (now 2283) since a day ago04:26
de-facto.title https://www.icm-mhi.org/en/pressroom/news/colchicine-reduces-risk-covid-19-related-complications04:40
Brainstormde-facto: From www.icm-mhi.org: Colchicine reduces the risk of COVID-19-related complications | Montreal Heart Institute04:40
bittersweetsymphwhat does the [m] mean after people's names?04:41
raccoon_dogbittersweetsymph: They're using Matrix. https://matrix.org/04:42
bittersweetsymphoh thanks raccoon_dog :)04:42
raccoon_dogCheers.04:43
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Positive community COVID-19 case in New Zealand → https://is.gd/3vHbTl04:46
de-facto.title https://www.drugs.com/pro/colchicine.html05:09
Brainstormde-facto: From www.drugs.com: Colchicine - FDA prescribing information, side effects and uses05:09
de-factoquite interesting substance but also a bit worrisome with its mitosis inhibition leading to damaged cells05:10
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: New Zealand health officials probe probable community COVID-19 case → https://is.gd/EQsmEU05:10
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Russia’s Sputnik vaccine close to approval for use in Pakistan → https://is.gd/Zl7oZZ05:23
bittersweetsymphWhat are people's opinions on how each vaccines would rank against each other. Not sure if I should think about it because whenever one finally becomes available i might have little choice over which one i get anyway05:27
bittersweetsymphI think I will probably be given the option eventually to get astra-zenica which apparently might only be 62% effective well I heard a range of 62-90%05:27
bittersweetsymphWe will see...however I also heard that some scientists are concerned it might not actually protect against the South African strain05:31
LjLthat may be true of any vaccine05:31
LjLcurrently, i would want to see better numbers and a better-run trial before just taking AstraZeneca05:32
LjLalthough if i knew i had no alternative (i won't be offered Pfizer or Moderna no matter what happens), then taking AZ is probably not going to be vastly harmful05:32
bittersweetsymphSome protection is better than none05:32
bittersweetsymphany measure is excellent compared to nothing05:32
LjLyeah, just, "meh"05:32
LjLas you said we'll likely not have the luxury to pick our vaccine05:33
bittersweetsymphwhich country are you in that you will not get those two?05:33
raccoon_dogI was going to ask the same.05:34
bittersweetsymphnot the magic prevention i had hoped for maybe05:34
LjLno, it was a hypothetical05:34
LjLcurrently, Pfizer is being used here05:34
LjLbut i'm definitely not a priority for vaccination, and AZ is cheaper, and i assume AZ and/or J&J and/or even Sanofi will be used for the majority of the population, because they're cheaper and simpler to transport05:35
raccoon_dogAre they effective, though?05:35
LjLwe don't know that yet05:35
LjLso far, Sanofi has postponed their set dates because in their trial, people over 55 were not adequately protected05:36
raccoon_dogI don't quite follow. Have they not done any trials for any of them yet?05:36
LjLso that doesn't send out great vibes05:36
raccoon_dogO.O05:36
LjLthey have done phase 1/2 trials, which are mainly about safety and dosing05:36
raccoon_dogRight.05:36
LjLphase 3 is about efficacy, and those are currently still ongoing05:36
raccoon_dogYeah.05:36
LjLfor Janssen, we have some phase 2 information that tells me the side effects are a little uncomfortable05:37
LjL(to say the least, but i don't want to trigger de-facto by calling them "severe" :P)05:37
LjLso really what we have that is actual, finished, not final but finished in their own right phase 3-based papers are on Pfizer and Moderna, and... some stuff on AZ that isn't too clear05:38
LjLbut i take it for granted that the other vaccines *will* be used, in some capacity, simply because i don't think the mRNA ones can cover all the people that need to be covered05:38
LjLbut i'm known to be a pessimist05:38
raccoon_dogAll I can say is, best of luck. The new administration here is providing a much-needed boost, but I'm surrounded by too many idiots. Some of them are known to not even believe the pandemic to be a real thing.05:40
LjLthe EU is not doing a good job of actually securing vaccines. vaccination rate in this country is going *down*, and that definitely shouldn't be the long-term trend05:44
raccoon_dogo.o05:44
LjLand these new variants are honestly all sorts of "concerning"05:44
de-facto.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32137-1/fulltext05:44
Brainstormde-facto: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives05:44
raccoon_dogYeah. There's apparently a South African variant that purportedly resists immunization in 50% of cases or something.05:44
de-facto"SARS-CoV-2 immunity: review and applications to phase 3 vaccine candidate"05:45
LjLraccoon_dog, that figure is kinda of drawn from a hat, really. but... they are more infectious, the UK one at least may also be more lethal with semi-decent evidence for it (maybe), and the SA and Brazilian variants do seem to evade some antibodies05:47
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Spain military commander forced to resign after jumping line for Covid-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/7C061s05:48
raccoon_dogLjL: I see. Yikes.05:48
LjLthe real amount of those effects isn't really known with any precision, but i'd say at this point it's known they are actual effects05:48
de-factoLjL, also heard about it in podcasts, seems the experts also are quite concerned about E484K et al05:49
LjLde-facto, more than most of them want to say to the public, apparently05:49
LjLi don't have a good feeling. but i never have good feelings so it doesn't count05:50
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Fauci: Single dose vaccine likely only two weeks away from FDA application (10041 votes) | https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/fauci-single-dose-vaccine-likely-only-two-weeks-away-from-fda-application-99904070001 | https://redd.it/l3joeu05:50
LjLargh, it's a video05:52
de-factoif production capacity is massively scaled up maybe we could have a shorter delay between sequencing and immunity updates by vaccines that include the new variants of concern05:52
de-factobut we would need many orders of magnitude more production capacity for such a thing05:52
LjLi assume he must be talking about J&J but i need to watch him talk to know05:53
de-factotbh i still dont understand why they would not put wartime priority effort into scaling production, no matter what it costs05:53
LjLde-facto, we aren't even meeting the original, modest goals05:53
de-factoindeed05:53
LjLyes, it's J&J05:54
de-facto"one dose"05:54
gigasu_shidaljl who is 'we'?05:54
LjLgigasu_shida, everyone, really, but... the EU05:55
gigasu_shidaoh ...yah i see05:55
raccoon_dogIt also doesn't help that even if production is decent, a significant proportion of the population blatantly refuses to get vaccinated.05:56
raccoon_dogThat is the situation here.05:56
de-factomaybe vaccines would need a "semantic" expiry date according to the S-protein variant that it uses at some point?05:56
spybertDarwin award candidates05:56
python476just when I join05:57
python476I feel personally attacked05:57
python476:p05:57
gigasu_shidawhere r u raccoon_dog ?05:57
python476hi05:57
raccoon_dogThe US.05:57
gigasu_shidaoh right05:57
raccoon_dogLOL05:57
gigasu_shidasounds about right05:57
raccoon_dogI like how you said "oh right"05:57
raccoon_dogThe world knows how fucking stupid some of us are.05:57
raccoon_dogThat depresses me.05:57
LjLraccoon_dog, that will be a worry i guess but right now i'm not even thinking much about the anti-vax people. we barely have enough doses to vaccinate some of the few who really need it05:57
python476quebec announced a new molecule (chlocinine ?) that reduced illness gravity05:57
spybertIs there much vaccine avoidance outside the US ?05:57
LjLyes05:58
spybertJust curious05:58
gigasu_shidaraccoon_dog: a couple months back i said i saw a bunch of people not wearing masks in a karate dojo and everyone immediately knew i was from the US05:58
LjLItaly has had outbreaks of measles due to refusal to vaccinate children05:58
raccoon_doggigasu_shida: Yeah ........05:58
spybertDarn, I thought it was just a US thing.  Too bad :-(05:58
de-factoi wonder how it correlates with usage of social media05:59
raccoon_dogLjL: That's true. Though over here that's kind of the norm. Some people refuse to self-isolate. They do not wear masks. If you ask them, politely, to not come close, they get violent and start screaming about "First Amendment" rights.05:59
python476I think we're in a natural cycle .. when people just lost faith in whatever and reject everything05:59
python47650 years ago people would run to be first in line for a vaccine06:00
spybertOn the other side of our gated community someone decided to have a kids birthday party.  15+ kids with not a mask in sight.06:00
spybertSome people just don't get the message06:02
LjLhaving "gated communities" itself i see as a very american lifestyle that, while probably not the cause, is a symptom of much of what is wrong there06:03
de-factoi think there is a lot of sabotage to community success to contain transmission by brainwash from some social media conspiracy theorist influencers06:05
spybertLjL: I think it's orthogonal to the other problems.  It's a response to the unwillingness of local governments to provide good law enforcement.  This is definitely a multi-ethnic community, too.06:05
raccoon_dogLjL: Unfortunately, some regions do not have appropriate law enforcement, so it is up to communities to fend for themselves. So, yeah, indeed.06:06
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +2583 cases (now 691854), +51 deaths (now 20726) since 23 hours ago06:06
gigasu_shidagood question de-facto . social media makes people dumber i'm convinced06:06
LjLit just makes it easier for dumb people to talk to other dumb people06:07
gigasu_shidayeah pretty much, good point06:07
LjLit also makes it easier for smart people to talk to other smart people, but it seems like the smart people end up being more divided and argumentative than the dumb ones, lately06:07
raccoon_dogI just mostly avoid social media.06:08
de-factoits a self amplifying effect, confirmation bias in terms of feeling normal in the cozy semantic topic bubble together with other that follow such groups, imho a gigantic problem of our time06:08
raccoon_dogEspecially since half of everyone I knew ended up blocking me for political reasons in November.06:09
LjLraccoon_dog, i like to say that technically, there's nothing that distinguished IRC from social media, except being born before that term was06:09
raccoon_dogYeah, heh. It's why I did say "mostly." ;)06:10
raccoon_dogI avoid the fancy ones -- Snapchat, Instagram, Facebook, Twitter.06:10
raccoon_dogThat sort of stuff. Feh.06:10
LjLi use Twitter a bit because it's essential to my bot's earthquakey stuff06:10
raccoon_dogAh, I see.06:11
raccoon_dogI guess there's useful APIs there.06:11
LjLyes, although they like to change them with little advance notice, or need06:11
raccoon_dogUgh, yeah. That happens a lot.06:11
raccoon_dogSo annoying.06:11
LjLsoon enough my bot might not be workable anymore, as they are limiting free use of their streaming API (and changing how they work)06:11
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: South African Hindu priests accused of ‘overcharging’ for funerals of COVID victims → https://is.gd/dUVjgc06:12
raccoon_dogOuch.06:13
de-factoalthough i get furiously angry when i meet such people i think its very important to do everything to re-integrate them hence work actively against separation and polarization of society (they should not remain trapped in those brainwash bubbles), its hard but important to be open minded and not emotionally opposed to such views but rather try to understand them and try to find a way to make them understand the current consensus in a polite 06:15
de-factoand inviting way06:15
de-factoafter all we sit in one boat with this, so everyone in society is mandatory part of a concept06:16
de-factofor that reason i think its absolutely important to have very transparent and understandable falsifiable high quality information publicly discussed and available06:17
de-factook maybe right now vaccine production is the shortage, but being optimistic assuming that will be solved at some point (its a technical problem after all), we should already think about the next challenge that is in the future and at some point that might be vaccination participation06:19
de-factohence imho this needs to be addressed now already (and already is to some extend)06:19
LjLI am convinced at some point, when there actually is enough for everyone, most countries will make the vaccine mandatory, either directly, or by pervasive restriction of activity on unvaccinated people06:20
LjLEither that or we'll have revolutions and something entirely different will happen06:20
de-factoi am not sure if making it mandatory is such a good idea, it might even play in the hands of those opposed to it 06:21
raccoon_dogde-facto: I've tried doing that for the past four years, and it only ended with decades-long friendships ending with a block on every social media platform last November, so you have to understand, I'm tired of sitting down and negotiating with people.06:21
de-factoimho it should be achieved with a very good and honest information campaign 06:21
de-factoraccoon_dog, i hear you, i have experienced the same, still i think its important to try to work towards re-integration and cohesion somehow06:23
raccoon_dogYeah, I totally understand.06:23
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: UK to quarantine visitors from nations with high COVID-19 risk: Report → https://is.gd/niaDg506:49
gigasu_shidalol de-facto 'reintegrate them'06:49
raccoon_dogXD06:50
gigasu_shidabtw de-facto where you said "the shortage" we would probably usually say "the bottleneck"06:58
de-factoyeah i am not a native English speaker, i meant the insufficient production rates (doses per time) to fulfill the demand, no saturation effect observable in demand07:01
gigasu_shidaoh ok sorry07:16
BrainstormUpdates for Los Lagos, Chile: +847 cases (now 37489), +7 deaths (now 351) since 23 hours ago — Morelos, Mexico: +643 cases (now 16268), +27 deaths (now 1726) since 23 hours ago — France: +23932 cases (now 3.1 million), +230 deaths (now 72948) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +33598 cases (now 3.6 million), +1349 deaths (now 97423) since 23 hours ago07:20
de-facto.title https://pastebin.com/wvdG7Crm <-- LjL, interesting comment from Alexander Kekule (virologist and epidemiologist) on the SA variants immune escapes, the papers we discussed here few days ago07:23
Brainstormde-facto: From pastebin.com: COVID-19 SA Escaping Mutant - Pastebin.com07:23
de-factooriginal in German Language (audio) i tried to auto-translate with Google07:23
de-factoquite neat that the experts discuss the same papers we discuss here independently :)07:28
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: A year after Wuhan lockdown, China reports small rise in COVID-19 cases → https://is.gd/UCumQx08:52
euod[m]LjL: the way it works in australia is a policy called "no jab no pay", which means you can't get any payments from the government if you don't have a vaccination report (not for covid yet obviously). turns out that works really well. 08:58
euod[m]I'd expect to see something like that in other countries at some point. the cost of people not being vaccinated is too high. 08:59
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 24, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/JXaBhJ09:04
raccoon_dogThat'll be one way to force it, but that'll get backlash here in the US for sure.09:09
raccoon_dogAnd the NWO conspiracy theories will be trotted out, like the figurative dead horses they are and be beaten, ad nauseam.09:10
g2`Is it possible to have an oder covid-19 with one of the newer variants like b117 simultaneously10:16
g2`Since both require separate vaccines10:16
g2`Wouldn't seem so10:19
g2`Since both are covid-1910:19
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam: England's deputy chief medical officer urges those who have had the jab to stick to lockdown rules. → https://is.gd/RMbjMD10:29
\mSgMy understanding is existing vaccines will work against b117 varient. I imagine they could coexist in somebody but they'd be competing for the same resources (ace-2 receptor) and I wouldn't imagine it was cause any differencne in the disease outcomes as they seem on para with each other.10:41
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Portugal chooses a president amid a severe pandemic surge → https://is.gd/qboyaa10:41
DocScrutinizer05Germany buys 200k doses *mab  for 400mio €11:07
python476france about to relockdown rumor has it11:11
python476whack-a-mole, covid edition11:11
bittersweetsymphwhen I looked at France's wiki page they have a graph that shows living density seeming to increase excess deaths. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France#Statistics11:15
python476meh .. my opinion, french caught the same 'anti' mania as US, slightly less but that's the main reason why propagation occured11:16
python476mask were a plot against freedom, secret parties, people moving in the country.. also religious gatherings11:17
bittersweetsymphtrue and a lot of people living in a small country doesn't help, I hadn't heard about the backlash in France though 11:20
python476where you at ? 11:26
python476I guess it's true that for places like russia australia or most of the US .. space helps11:26
python476lockdown is less harsh when you live in a ranch 11:26
bittersweetsymphAustralia11:28
python476heh11:28
bittersweetsymphwhat about u11:29
python476france11:29
bittersweetsymphI wish you the best11:30
bittersweetsymphI wonder what it is like there11:30
bittersweetsymphare people going about life as usual or mostly trying to stay home/away from each other11:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Dems Urged Not to ‘Waste a Second’ Negotiating as Republicans Back Away From COVID Relief → https://is.gd/AwFMXK11:30
python476i was never a really social guy so I can't really say how people are 11:31
python476but based on france subreddit people are starting to express emotional issues 11:32
python476it's becoming regular11:32
python476also many resent government for subpar planning/scheduling 11:32
bittersweetsymphhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ i am just looking at the statistics there now11:35
bittersweetsymphit would be a very hard job there because it's all land borders and such a densely populated area11:35
bittersweetsymphwell not all but some land borders11:36
bittersweetsymphunlike here11:36
bittersweetsymphEveryone is wearing masks now?11:36
bittersweetsymphWhen was the last lockdown11:36
python476cant even recall.. summe r?11:36
python476time is fuzzy11:36
bittersweetsymphI heard to take vitamin D and zinc might help a little11:36
python476we were under partial curfew since11:36
python476yeah a lot of people say that11:36
python476I took supplements11:36
python476some study said that people in low light latitudes had higher covid scores11:37
python476some say vitd only matters for some ethnic groups..11:37
python476in any case boosting the immune system is good I guess11:37
bittersweetsymphyes i think with a darker skin tone people are more prone to vitamin D deficiency 11:39
bittersweetsymphhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ oh that's France11:40
bittersweetsymphgee France right next door's situation is pretty tough also11:40
bittersweetsymphin Spain11:40
bittersweetsymphI hope you and your family/friends will be ok 11:41
bittersweetsymphmy uncle had it he survived, had just a very mild case and he was over 70 too11:42
python476we had zero casualties luckily11:45
python476a niece got it but it didn't do any harm, a cousin got it but it was mild11:45
bittersweetsymphAre you able to get a vaccine?11:50
python476hi11:52
python476internet dropped11:52
python476bittersweetsymph: 11:52
python476vaccine not sure yet, not eager too11:52
bittersweetsymphI was just reading this https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Covid-vaccines-France-Key-details-appointments-documents11:52
python476I'll wait to see the side effects11:52
bittersweetsymphfirst priority to over 75s i think11:53
python476also that11:53
bittersweetsymphFrom Monday, January 18, all over 75s and everyone at high risk of a serious form of Covid-19 due to existing conditions will be eligible to receive the Covid-19 vaccination.11:53
python476and since I'm only working 3 mornings a week I dont get too much interactions, risk is mild11:53
bittersweetsymphwonder when everyone else would get it11:53
bittersweetsymphWhat is your job?11:54
python476jobless11:54
python476i volunteer at a charity food warehouse 11:54
python476helping to unpack the cans at local distribution sites11:54
python476it's mentally very light, perfect for me11:55
bittersweetsymphyou're a good person to do that11:55
python476not really IMO11:55
bittersweetsymphmaybe very needed at this time11:55
python476I have motives to go there11:55
python476I'm still suffering from depression, my house is toxic, so it gives me a reason to get out of bed 11:56
bittersweetsymphi think when everyone panics making sure everyone has enough food becomes a problem maybe so doing that is a very important job right now11:56
python476yeah it is of social value that's for sure11:56
python476slight anecdote, the other day, a young girl started to rant about the food she was given. not enough apparently. She said she'd write a letter to complaint to the boss11:56
python476quite an attitude right11:57
bittersweetsymphoh11:57
python476bittersweetsymph: I hate the job market, and most jobs are toxic to my soul. I worked at a court room last summer it was near the most dreadful place I ever landed foot in11:57
python476people were all sad, slow, limited, mean11:58
bittersweetsymphyeah i can imagine it would be a sad place11:58
python476so I don't have the force to find new jobs11:58
python476the charity is kind of a trick 11:58
python476I get state money monthly.. so at least I give something back to society :)11:59
bittersweetsymphI can understand where you are coming from11:59
python476what do you do ?11:59
bittersweetsymphUberEats11:59
python476oh 11:59
python476by bike ?11:59
bittersweetsymphbut a year ago I was working in an Accountant office..similar to you really11:59
python476(I forgot if it's mandatory)11:59
bittersweetsymphin my car11:59
python476aight11:59
python476you like it ?11:59
bittersweetsymphyeah I like driving around11:59
python476yeah it's quite peaceful to be on your own on the road12:00
python476I did deliver food at night last year12:00
python476undeclared gig for a guy cooking special burgers at his house12:00
python476I loved it12:00
python476you know I'm a software engineer .. but I stopped giving a fuck about tech12:00
python476and this ubereats like gig.. was near peak life for me12:01
python476like paid tourism :)12:01
bittersweetsymphSoftware engineer I thought you might be a lawyer if you worked in a court room12:02
bittersweetsymphI volunteered in a food back in the past also12:04
bittersweetsymphwell charity for the poor food supermarket thing12:04
bittersweetsymphstacking their shelves like you12:04
bittersweetsymphIt's probably not that good to be doing UberEats in a pandemic and maybe people look down on me for it but *shrug*12:06
bittersweetsymphit's good for the people i drop food to though12:06
bittersweetsymphlol12:06
bittersweetsymphAnyway I hope you go well12:07
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: No Europe deaths directly tied to Covid jabs: experts: Despite dozens of deaths of people shortly after they were vaccinated against coronavirus, scientists say the evidence available so far does not incriminate the new anti-COVID vaccines. → https://is.gd/4GKB8G12:07
python476the courtroom was a temporary clerk gig, no skills required12:08
bittersweetsymphoh 12:16
bittersweetsymphYou have done many different jobs also12:17
python476since Im not bedridden I tried a few ones12:17
python476truck disassembler12:18
python476newspaper delivery, ~ubereats12:18
python476newspaper delivery was harder than truck disassembly mind you12:18
python476I was shocked12:18
python47665 customers per hour, for 2 hours, too stressful12:18
python476boy this was so long before covid12:19
bittersweetsymphyeah newpaper or pamphlet delivery seriously sucks i did that too12:19
bittersweetsymphin the summer heat and humidity of AU it was tough12:19
bittersweetsymphand had very low pay also12:19
bittersweetsymphwell others might do well with it but the heat and humidity gets to me12:20
bittersweetsymphin a colder climate might not be as bad...never disassembled a truck though12:21
bittersweetsymphthat sounds like hard work12:22
bittersweetsymphbut interesting maybe12:22
bittersweetsymphWere you bedridden?12:24
DocScrutinizer05>>scientists say the evidence available so far does not incriminate the new anti-COVID vaccines<< ORLY12:25
python476bittersweetsymph: well I only staeyed 2 weeks at the truck shop12:36
python476but I found it a bit fun (it's interesting to see how the trucks are made)12:36
python476and it was hard but just right12:36
python476It was a bit like warming up12:37
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: New warning on vaccine supplies sparks EU concern: A warning from AstraZeneca that initial supplies of its COVID vaccinations to Europe will be lower than expected has sparked fresh concern over the rollout of inoculations, forcing some countries to plan for a sharp drop in deliveries. → https://is.gd/LMXA6W12:43
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: The stakes for choosing the right FDA commissioner couldn’t be higher: As a weary and uncertain America faces the likelihood of needing continual rollout of new coronavirus treatments in the years to come, the stakes for President Biden's choice for FDA… → https://is.gd/VEwpIQ13:08
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam: England's deputy chief medical officer urges those who have had the jab to stick to lockdown rules. → https://is.gd/RMbjMD13:20
bittersweetsymphhopfeully everyone stays home as much as possible python until more can get vaccinated. i hope you will be ok13:28
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +3579 cases (now 277955), +9 deaths (now 792) since a day ago13:58
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Rioters destroy coronavirus testing facility in Dutch village → https://is.gd/N2v1Jz14:21
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 24JAN21 → https://is.gd/4GKHjt14:33
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany made additional agreements with vaccine producers for extra 30M doses, technically violating the European Commission’s vaccination strategy. It's the only EU country acting this way. → https://is.gd/mQgIwZ15:23
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +14 deaths (now 9064) since 12 hours ago15:25
BrainstormNew from NPR: New Zealand Records First Suspected COVID-19 Community Case Since November: A 56-year-old woman who had traveled to Spain and the Netherlands for work late last year has tested positive for COVID-19. It's New Zealand's first probable community transmission in months. → https://is.gd/q7WSUN16:12
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID would have been dealt with better if key decisions weren't all made by men, says Labour frontbencher → https://is.gd/MZDKE016:25
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +11866 cases (now 2.1 million) since 22 hours ago16:27
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As COVID surges in Canada, workers ‘can’t afford to get sick’ → https://is.gd/cZp74616:49
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Do an Altered Gut Microbiota and an Associated Leaky Gut Affect COVID-19 Severity? (84 votes) | https://mbio.asm.org/content/12/1/e03022-20 | https://redd.it/l3wu7e17:01
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Vaccine disparities raise alarm as Covid variants multiply → https://is.gd/wdZTtO17:14
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +3199 cases (now 745195) since 22 hours ago17:23
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: US passes the 1 Million vaccinations in a day mark (10339 votes) | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-19-vaccination-doses?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World | https://redd.it/l3yjcc17:49
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK records 30,004 new COVID-19 cases, 6.3 million people have had first vaccine dose → https://is.gd/Lp768j18:04
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Rioters set fire to Dutch coronavirus testing centre as new curfew comes into effect → https://is.gd/UhZRqo18:16
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israeli health minister says not country’s job to give vaccine to Palestinians in occupied territory → https://is.gd/Zzrjow18:29
Peasant65Just want to add something to that dutch headline ^^. The youth that set fire to that testing centre, throw riots about a lot of things. Not just covid. 18:29
Peasant65They just like riots. 18:30
LjLubLIX[m]: 16:01 CoronaBot posted another study (at least I think it's not the same one) linking microbiota dysfunction with long COVID18:41
LjLde-facto: thanks for the transcription. Not everything is entirely clear to me, it seems German has a lot of expressions that Google translates in odd ways18:41
Jigsy%cases UK18:41
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 3.6 million confirmed cases (5.5% of the population) and 97423 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 11 hours ago. 67.2 million tests were performed (5.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.18:41
LjLPeasant65: the reddit comments on it are mostly throwing shade at the locality where it happened18:43
Peasant65Yes true LjL. It's a regular thing for the youth in Urk (place)  18:44
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +18306 cases (now 3.6 million), +376 deaths (now 97799) since 11 hours ago — Italy: +11628 cases (now 2.5 million), +299 deaths (now 85461) since a day ago — Netherlands: +3785 cases (now 951693), +46 deaths (now 13565) since 16 hours ago18:50
LjLSunday numbers18:53
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: N-Acetylcysteine to Combat COVID-19: An Evidence Review (81 votes) | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7649937 | https://redd.it/l3tpvn19:20
LjLubLIX[m], ↑19:20
LjLnot a whole lot of evidence reviewed in my cursory look at it, but19:24
DocScrutinizer05wait! ACC? yet another one I already got on my daily meds plan. Why do I worry about that virus at all? ;-D19:33
DocScrutinizer05HUH?  >>However, the vaccine has shown limited benefit in the elderly, suggesting an age-dependent immune response<<19:34
generano, NAC. not ASS19:34
generaoder19:34
DocScrutinizer05ACC not ASS, aka NAC19:34
generai saw NAC mentioned somewhere. maybe during the first wave?19:35
DocScrutinizer05https://www.husten.de/acc-produkte.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIjNPYgpu17gIVA7p3Ch1fkgh-EAAYASAAEgLKDPD_BwE19:35
LjLDocScrutinizer05, that sentence is quite bad for sure. if anything, some of the vaccines have shown limited immune response on the elderly, which still does not necessarily mean they will be less effective since immunity is complicated. i don't think there's any evidence from phase 3 trials of older people actually being more likely to contract COVID after being vaccinated19:38
LjLSanofi seems to work quite poorly on people over 55, but that's why they are delaying it, they aren't just going ahead... and it is one vaccine out of several19:38
LjLspeaking of which, TV suggested today that the EU is looking at Sputnik V and Sinovac to make up for the lower delivery of Pfizer and AZ :\ i'm not thrilled19:39
LjLthese vaccines don't have phase 3 results out, they were developed less than transparently, and Sinovac has had very inconsistent results across countries19:40
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: People who have received a Covid-19 vaccine could still pass the virus on to others and should continue following lockdown rules → https://is.gd/euSJWP19:43
DocScrutinizer05LjL: I wonder why the authors are elaborating on vaccines at all, in a "study" about ACC. Sounds a bit like propaganda19:43
LjLand the paper only has two authors19:44
DocScrutinizer05are they by any chance employees of a pharma concern producing NAC/ACC?19:45
LjLnot according to the COI statement19:45
LjLanyway, NAC is not new in the landscape of things that may help with COVID19:45
LjLthat's why i puted ubLIX[m] to it, because he's kinda followed that19:45
ubLIX[m]one of the reasons NAC hasn't been subject to extensive testing wrt covid is that there is no money in it. generic medicine as old as the hills. it is the standard treatment for acetaminophen poisoning, and has also long been used as a mucolytic. it just happens also to be a potent antioxidant. and is a thrombolytic. it'd quite odd if it didn't have some therapeutic value for covid.19:54
raccoon_doghttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html19:56
raccoon_dogThis is interesting.19:56
LjLthe estimates may be on the ball for the US, if they can keep the current vaccination pace20:09
DocScrutinizer05the real challenge of NAC is for the flavor designers to somehow mitigate that taste of burnt rubber20:15
LjLuhm, it just tastes very mildly sulfuric to me20:17
de-facto[m].title https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-close-ben-gurion-airport-to-all-arrivals-amid-mutation-fears/20:27
Brainstormde-facto[m]: From www.timesofisrael.com: Israel to almost completely shut Ben Gurion Airport for week amid mutation fears | The Times of Israel20:27
DocScrutinizer05LjL: it's difficult to describe that taste, but it's sort of disgusting to me20:28
de-facto[m]Question: why are passenger flights still not illegal in other countries?20:29
DocScrutinizer05and it seems to change chameleonesque with any other flavor you mix in20:30
DocScrutinizer05de-facto[m]: we threw 9 BILION at lufthansa, how could we declare flying illegal :-o  >:-(20:31
BrainstormNew from NPR: U.S. Tops 25 Million Cases Of The Coronavirus: The devastating news comes almost one year to the day after the first case of the virus was detected in the country, and as officials warn the situation will only grow worse before it gets better. → https://is.gd/BCDGdI20:32
de-facto[m]They should convert their entire fleet to cargo transport, imho passenger flights never should be allowed ever again.20:37
de-facto.title https://www.iaa.gov.il/en/airports/ben-gurion/notifications-and-updates-during-covid-19/20:50
Brainstormde-facto: From www.iaa.gov.il: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string')20:50
de-facto"As a result of the outbreak of the coronavirus, many changes have been made in operating processes at Ben-Gurion International Airport. The services provided to passengers at Ben-Gurion International Airport have been significantly restricted, as have movements by passengers and aircraft."20:50
dTalI see the snake behind the curtain20:50
LjLSometimes you scare me a little de-facto20:51
dTalIsrael have vaccinated 25% of their population already apparently20:51
dTalby an amazing coincidence, 0% of them are Palestinian20:52
dTalde-facto: banning all passenger flights forever is just silly20:54
de-factoPassenger flights were how SARS-CoV-2 spread initially and undercover by asymptomatic international (business?) travelers, yet instead of learning from it air travel is still allowed. D614G spread internationally exactly the same way. Now probably also N501Y, do we realy want also to have E484K worldwide? 20:56
BrainstormNew from StatNews: ‘I’m not looking to be vindicated,’ Deborah Birx says in televised interview: Deborah Birx said she waited to give an interview about her experiences as the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force until after President Joe Biden’s inauguration. → https://is.gd/ElD1eq20:56
LjLno, we don't, but it's a big leap from that to going "forever"20:57
LjLmaybe you're right that we should ban it "forever", because of other reasons including climate20:57
de-factoWhat about another pathogen that might be even more lethal in the future? Why would it not behave similar to the dynamics we have observed with this pandemic?20:57
LjLi read a pretty grim-sounding article yesterday https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending20:57
dTalI don't expect viral spread mitigations to last forever20:57
dTalit's a century-event20:58
dTalthese things happen20:58
LjLbut it's a hard pill to swallow that i just will never be allowed, for example, to meet many of the people i talk to on the internet. a "look but don't touch" world where technology lets us see places but never actually be there...20:58
LjLdTal, well, except we're doing things to the environment that are accelerating at a very worrisome pace20:58
de-factothere always will be new pathogens circulating and for many of them reaction to ban travel simply is not fast enough to contain them if its possible to fly around the globe in days and directly walk in the crowds20:58
LjLso i wouldn't take it for granted that we're not in for a *sequence* of epidemics20:58
dTaloh I thought we were having a pandemic conversation not a climate change conversation20:59
dTalclimate-wise we are so, so boned20:59
LjLdTal, i do not believe they are unconnected20:59
dTalI think we've already triggered the clathrate gun, in the past few years20:59
dTalwe are in for a ride20:59
de-factoif passenger airtravel really really has to continue then only with mandatory quarantine until its absolutely clear that no unknown disease is transported with the passenger. If air traveling requires 1 month of quarantine maybe people would think about if it really is necessary to do that21:00
LjLthat article i linked doesn't focus on flying, but does mention in passing that the "theoretical" solutions to climate change involve things we most likely won't do, like virtually shutting down all transport infrastructures worldwide21:00
dTalwe can't shut down transport infrastructure, the world would starve21:01
dTalI mean yeah, kiling everyone is a solution to climate change, but it's kinda throwing out the baby with the bathwater21:01
de-factocargo transport can be made safe much easier than passenger transport21:01
de-factowhy would we need passenger transport?21:01
LjLdTal, indeed the article concludes we're fucked, that's why it's titled "what if we stopped pretending". then it gives you a philosophical view that we should have hope for today since we can't have it for the far future, where, anyway, we're condemned to be dead forever since we were born21:01
LjLde-facto, i don't know how to answer that question except with "..."21:02
LjLi really don't21:02
LjLi admit that you may be right21:02
LjLbut it's like you're throwing a giant stone on everyone's way of life without recognizing it's a loss21:03
LjLwe had passenger transport for a variety of reasons that improved people's quality of life21:03
dTalI don't think the virus, or fear of future viruses, is a reason to shut down transport infrastructure21:03
LjLit may make it worse long-term, or if there's a pathogen around, and i recognize that21:03
LjLbut, woah, try to recognize the OTHER loss too21:03
de-factoi recognize its a huge loss, but i also cant ignore the observation on how dynamics depend on air traveling passengers during this pandemic21:03
dTalmaybe temporarily, now, but not permanently21:03
LjLotherwise you keep talking about "getting the deniers on board", but this way even i start to become a denier21:04
dTalit's like never leaving the house without a flak jacket and bowie knife, because you got mugged once21:04
dTalit's not an acceptable tradeoff21:04
LjLbesides, why air travel in particular? yes, it's the fastest way we have to move around, but Europe has been investing a lot of money into creating high-speed rail, specifically for passenger transports and while freeing up existing railways for cargo21:05
LjLso should we scrap that too?21:05
dTalThe correct way to deal with this is a robust track and trace system21:05
LjLwhat travelling distance is "too long"?21:05
LjLshould i not be allowed to leave my municipality not just until the next revision of the lockdown laws, but forever?21:05
de-factono we would need to have compartmentalized zones for traveling freely, such as schengen in EU or such21:06
dTallive your life normally, detect new breakout pathogens early, agressive track and trace (and maybe local lockdowns)21:06
LjLde-facto, based on what science? Schengen's size and contents are based on political considerations, not at all on epidemiological ones21:06
de-factobut traveling between such zones would have to be only possible with a delay time (quarantine) between having contacts to local communities that ensures no unknown pathogens are transported21:07
dTalyou're acting like this hasn't happened before21:07
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +4486 cases (now 747812) since 22 hours ago — France: +135 deaths (now 72982) since 22 hours ago21:07
dTaldeadly pandemics are a thing, and we haven't deemed it a worthwhile tradeoff to stunt global trade21:07
dTaland we won't21:07
dTalthis conversation is academic really because it won't happen21:07
de-factothe new variants simply wont be contained unless passenger airtravel is banned internationally21:07
dTalthey will not be contained21:08
dTalthere's no attempt to contain them21:08
de-factoit probably already spread on Christmas traveling21:08
LjLokay de-facto but this is about the current pandemic and these variants21:08
LjLlet's not keep jumping between "stop flights for now" and "stop flights forever"21:08
dTalat some point the pandemic will end21:08
LjLthey are two very different propositions21:08
p1gasudTal, sadly test& trace isn't going to work with 100k / day new cases21:08
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Fecal microbiota transplantation for COVID-19; a potential emerging treatment strategy (86 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306987720333673 | https://redd.it/l4350a21:08
dTalp1gasu: we are talking about future putative pandemics21:09
LjLi can agree with stopping passenger flights for now, although i'm not sure it will be exceedingly helpful since i suspect all the variants have already taken seed pretty much everywhere21:09
LjLdTal, we are, except when de-facto goes back to arguing about the new variants :P21:09
dTalyes21:09
de-factoLjL, well the only difference is that we know for sure that flights spread the new variants right now but without a known pandemic already ongoing the mechanism is exactly the same, it originated from somewhere and would not have spread internationally when international airtravel would not have allowed this to happen21:10
LjLthere are a number of things that were done wrong21:10
LjLin a very obvious way that we have observed and fumed about here many times21:10
de-factoand until we stop doing those things wrong it will happen again and again21:11
LjLit is not obvious that we couldn't have stopped the pandemic simply by doing those things right, without killing air travel21:11
LjLChina had air travel. China is now more or less COVID-free.21:11
dTalWe're not gonna stop all passenger air travel21:12
dTalain't happening.21:12
p1gasulast I heard LAX had 600 flight/day 21:13
de-factoi know its not going to happen, its not even happening during the pandemic right now21:13
de-factobut i think if we just look at the observed evidence for transmission (e.g. initial spread, variants etc) banning international air-travel (unless accepting quarantine for 1 month) would be the appropriate consequence to prevent this from happening again in the future with some unknown new pathogen21:15
de-factobecause local measures for containment only can be raised after the pathogen already arrived and was studied, that is too late 21:16
de-factoand tbh i really dont see any reason for the necessity of international passenger air-travel, sure its nice to meet business contacts in person or to be entertained by foreign countries and cultures on holidays, but imho its not necessary at all for the essential functions even in a globalized world21:19
de-facto(sorry thats my honest opinion on this)21:19
de-factoand on another topic: I read China is extracting 2nd level contacts to cases tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 into separate isolation facilities to prevent community spread, that is whole other class of containment compared to telling cases tested positive for a new variant of concern to "please isolate at home" and trusting that no community transmission occurs from that21:27
de-factook still after the fact of knowledge but shows how much more dedicated they are to effective containment21:28
mmtsuchi[m]<de-facto "but i think if we just look at t"> Yeah, it is a good idea to stop propagation of virus **but** many countries deadly depends of aerial imports. So we couldn't do that... too many consequences on "local" economy, "local" subsistence.21:32
de-factothats why i said they should try to make cargo air-transport safe by a proper bio-security concept21:33
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Beijing tests for COVID-19 using anal swabs, where virus may survive longer: experts → https://is.gd/JwgSJm21:33
de-factoi agree that we need international shipment of goods with short delay times, yet it should be much easier to prevent contamination on goods that are non-replicating for the pathogen in contrast to living beings that can get infected, transport it while replicating already in their incubation period and then spread it in uncontrollable ways in the community on arrival21:35
de-factowe simply cant trust the "word" or "intention" of  passenger when the health and biosecurity of a whole travel compartment such as a country or a conglomerate of free travel zone is at stake21:37
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Democratic lawmakers slam Israel for not vaccinating Palestinians in occupied West Bank → https://is.gd/vs1VCk21:45
dTalde-facto there are lots of things we could do to prevent this from ever happening in the future21:49
dTalwe could euthanize everyone, for example21:49
dTalOr we could lock ourselves in isolated pods and have all material goods transported by drone21:50
dTalWe could manufacture 7 billion FFP3 respirators and mandate their use in public at all times, forever21:51
dTal(this last option would arguably have less economic cost than nuking the air travel industry)21:51
dTalthe point is, it is unreasonable to prevent this from happening again "at any cost"21:52
dTalthere is a cost to the pandemic but it is not infinite21:53
dTalor even that large, compared to some things21:53
de-factoyes hence it would make sense to think about benefit-cost ratios, if we want to have as few local restrictions as possible we would need to have compartmentalized zones and restrict transmission (of yet unknown pathogen) between them. Imho that would be the best compromise because it could lower the probability of unknown spread to just one of those compartments while the other would stay free of it when transmission by traveling between 21:58
de-factothem is prevented by mandatory quarantine (e.g. at east 1 month or such)21:58
dTalor, you know, no restrictions at all22:00
dTalbecause it's not worth it for a century event22:00
de-factowell then it will happen exactly like we have observed it now again, potentially with a more dangerous pathogen22:00
de-factoits only a question of time22:01
dTalwell let's be clear that there's a large middle ground between "handle the pandemic as poorly as we have" and "forever lockdown because never again, never again, never again"22:01
de-factoand since world population follows an exponential growth curve and international transport never was used this frequently before its not comparable to 100 years ago at all, it will happen more often now22:02
dTalthere are some really obvious wins to be had22:02
dTalwe will already be more prepared for the next pandemic, for a while anyway22:02
de-factoi did not say forever lockdown, i just said that international passenger travel via flights is extremely stupid as we do it right now. it simply cant continue like this anymore22:03
BrainstormUpdates for Malawi: +956 cases (now 19395), +38 deaths (now 508) since 16 hours ago22:03
de-factoin fact i meant in order to lift local lockdown (after this pandemic was dealt with) we need to think about proper and absolute strict bio-security concepts for international travel, otherwise we cant afford to lift lockdown again (obviously as we could observe from this pandemic), that is if we have the intention of preventing such a thing to happen again in the future22:06
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Dutch police clash with anti-lockdown rioters in two cities → https://is.gd/XJZewO22:10
DocScrutinizer05>>imho passenger flights never should be allowed ever again  <de-facto> Passenger flights were how SARS-CoV-2 spread initially<<   well... Actually I think *breathing* is what spreads the virus, so it should be outlawed. - Honestly, more constructive approaches would do a better job at shaping our future. 22:21
de-factothat does not make any sense, your try to compare breathing with passenger flights22:22
de-factoi never heard of anyone dying from not being allowed to fly, yet i hear the rumor that breathing might be essential for survival (maybe its not true?)22:23
DocScrutinizer05honestly you're sounding silly22:34
de-factohonestly to me comparing breathing with air-travel sounds silly22:35
DocScrutinizer05nad ignorant about >>i never heard of anyone dying from not being allowed to fly<<22:35
DocScrutinizer05I even KNOW people that only live because of passenger flights22:35
DocScrutinizer05and suggesting a new GDR to fight *potential* future pandemics is really I mindset I don't feel like discussing any longer22:36
de-factothen dont22:36
DocScrutinizer05how about YOU simply never again leave your home? problem solved22:37
de-factoi am sorry to tell you that you dont make any sense22:38
DocScrutinizer05I'm pretty sure there's no special issue with passenger flights that can't get solved by much much MUCH milder and particularly infinitely smarter means than "never again allow passenger flights, ever"22:39
DocScrutinizer05tbh it's prolly the most idiotic thing I heard since end of last year22:40
de-factohow does it spread internationally? did it spread before we knew about its presence?22:41
DocScrutinizer05and if ... lemme count... 4(?) people tell you that you don't make sense, maybe it's not a smart approach to tell them that THEY all don't make sense and you were totally reasonable22:42
de-factoso it does not make sense that passenger air-travel spread it internationally? 22:43
DocScrutinizer05so it does not make sense that having any other human within vicinity is spreading it *everywhere*?22:43
de-factoof course the spread it from human to human, but if it only would spread locally and be contained to a compartment it could be contained there and not become an international pandemic again22:45
DocScrutinizer05an epidemiologist told me in his studies a task was to find out how to stop bird flew from spreading. The most efficient solution: kill all birds22:45
de-factowe are talking about human to human spread not bird flu22:46
DocScrutinizer05of course it spreads internationally by flights among other paths, but if nobody would meet anybody closer than 100m or within closed rooms, it would NOT spread AT ALL22:47
DocScrutinizer05de-you need a break, honestly22:47
de-factosure, but its not realistic alt all, what are the impacts on daily routine way of life from 1) always keeping distance 100m to anyone else 2) not being able to freely travel via airplane at all or without going into mandatory quarantine ?22:48
de-factoyou are trying to compare apples with pears22:49
DocScrutinizer05no, you are not seeing how your arguments against my silly suggestion apply to yours 100% exactly the same22:54
DocScrutinizer05btw your >>or without going into mandatory quarantine<< is an afterthought you prolly brought up when you realized your original suggestion just was too extreme22:55
DocScrutinizer05and my concern isjust sou sound extremly silly and not honest with such statements. Which isn't a problem for me as long as it was just about your reputation, but the results are like >><LjL> otherwise you keep talking about "getting the deniers on board", but this way even i start to become a denier<<22:57
DocScrutinizer05and _that_ doesn't help anybody22:58
LjLWoah woah woah22:59
LjLYou know what I see as an actual big problem with ending up doing the right things22:59
LjLThe "deniers" (using the term very generally) have a tendency to get together on their silly ideas22:59
DocScrutinizer05re >>mandatory quarantine<< I got news for you: we GOT mandatory quarantine for flight passengers from risk zones. It's in the news this very moment23:00
LjLWhile the more rational people end up fighting and disagreeing on everything23:00
LjLIf we don't calm down nothing good will come23:01
LjLI'm the first in line who doesn't calm down and gets angry and flips out23:01
LjLI know23:01
LjLBut... It isn't doing me any favors, trust me23:01
DocScrutinizer05>><LjL> If we don't calm down nothing good will come<< couldn't have put it better23:02
DocScrutinizer05hoing shutdown extremist won't result in a better world. Definitely23:03
raccoon_dogYou explain to me how to "calm down" when people around you refuse to wear masks, some of whom don't even believe the virus to be real.23:03
raccoon_dogIt's easy to say in some parts of the world. Not here.23:03
DocScrutinizer05raccoon_dog: do you think "shoot them all" will result in a more admirable mood at your place?23:04
raccoon_dogI want a thing to happen which does not involve bloodshed or violence.23:05
raccoon_dogViolence is not acceptable.23:05
de-factoi stay 100% with what i said, i dont want to repeat it all again23:05
DocScrutinizer05can't tell you how much relief I feel for you saying THAT23:06
DocScrutinizer05I prolly couldn't take it yet another time23:07
raccoon_dogThanks, though I'm guessing you've run across people who think otherwise. :/23:07
raccoon_dogWhich is depressing.23:07
LjLvirus to be real.23:08
LjL14,99[23:03] 99,99 12,99raccoon_dog:99,99 It's easy to say in some parts of the world. Not here.23:08
LjLOkay, since you wanted to know23:08
LjLI'm in Milan, Lombardy, Italy23:08
LjLIt is not easy to say23:09
LjLNevermind do23:09
raccoon_dogThat's not a good place for this, but let me ask this: are people there taking it seriously?23:09
raccoon_dogAs in, is everyone wearing a mask, they keep away, etc.?23:09
raccoon_dogSelf-isolating, all that.23:09
LjLBut I am saying it's necessary because if even DocScrutinizer05 and de-facto of all people end up fighting, we have no hope of any sort of united front like they'd like23:09
LjLNo23:09
LjLMany are, many are not23:09
raccoon_dogIt doesn't matter if many are -- the problem is the ones who are *not*. That is not good. :S23:10
LjLThe US isn't absolutely unique and thinking that it is (both in good and bad ways) is often something that is a flaw in how people there reason23:10
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Mexico's death toll from COVID-19 set to pass grim milestone of 150,000 → https://is.gd/5XVx2j23:11
raccoon_dogI don't know what to tell you. I don't know the rationale for some people there not wearing masks, but the disturbing part here is the disproportional amount of people who don't even think the virus is real.23:12
raccoon_dogNow *that* specific thing I am led to believe is almost uniquely an American thing.23:12
LjLWell, it's not23:14
raccoon_dogI don't know if that's good news or bad news.23:14
LjLI've seen people deny, or report of other people denying, the evidence of coffins piling up despite it happening right next to them23:15
raccoon_dogo.o23:15
LjLI've seen that from all over the world23:15
raccoon_dogYeah, that's the kind of denial I'm talking about here.23:15
raccoon_dogA kind of denial that borders on genuine delusion.23:15
raccoon_dogAnd if you politely tell an anti-masker to stay away, the response is almost always negative.23:17
DocScrutinizer05my approach I try to always follow - though sometimes I fail on following - is: don't shout >>we need to forbid X, ideally forever<< but rather ask >>what do we need to change, so we can allow X and make it even better while avoiding all the obvious downsides it has now?<<23:20
raccoon_dogI have a hard time following your >> << notation. Are those like quotes?23:20
DocScrutinizer05yes. OK you're the first one to tell me, I'll consider changing this habit23:21
LjLYes, German quotation marks except expressed in ASCII23:21
LjL»like this«23:22
raccoon_dogSome languages do use symbols like that for quotation marks (guillemets)23:22
raccoon_dogRigh. Those things.23:22
raccoon_dogDocScrutinizer05: No, it's fine. Just asking to make sure.23:22
LjLYes but German uses them in a mirrored way compared to «French»23:22
raccoon_dogOr Spanish.23:22
raccoon_dogThat's what confused me.23:22
raccoon_dogiirc German also uses ,,something like this''23:22
LjLIt also uses „quotstion ... Yes23:23
raccoon_dogRight.23:23
DocScrutinizer05I'm used to use them for direkt citation of verbatim speech, while I use "this" to mark "symbolic" terms or sort of irony23:23
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Blue envelope plan for Scottish jab dates delayed: The first tranche of vaccination appointments for over 70s in Scotland will be sent in white envelopes. → https://is.gd/5tZ7Xp23:23
raccoon_dogI see.23:23
blkshpBob: "this is how we use quotes"23:28
blkshp"shutup" said Caroline. Though she'd had some beers she was 'sober'.23:29
blkshphaha :D23:29
LjLThere is yet another way to report direct speech, which is used in Italian (perhaps decreasingly commonly, though) and I think maybe in Spanish and French23:30
LjL– Hi, how are you?23:30
LjL– I have COVID, and you?23:30
blkshpSpecifically with an em dash?23:30
LjLIt's amenable to be used for dialogues, where you want to skip the whole "and then she said", " and he replied" dance23:31
LjLYes23:31
LjLEm dashes are otherwise unused in Italian, at least we don't use them for parentheticals23:31
blkshpI havve never used one in my life23:32
LjLIt's a matter of style in English, but you see them often (sometimes reduced to just hyphens though when people are simply typing on their keyboards)23:32
blkshpMy keyboard has a hyphen, no dash or em dash so I don't use them.23:33
LjLWell if you ever use hyphens (or the -- or --- trick) to indicate parentheticals, you are effectively using the em dash convention within the restrictions of ASCII, similarly to how Doc uses >> and << to "emulate" » and «23:34
LjLIncidentally I'm on my phone right now so this is all sorts of fun to type, I mean tap23:35
blkshpTo be honest, im not really sure wat you mean by parentheticals23:35
blkshpProgramming thing?23:35
raccoon_dogEn dashes are also used, with spaces, in British English. For parentheticals, I mean, and as punctuation in general.23:35
raccoon_dogLike em dashes are in American English.23:35
raccoon_dogOh. Ugh. Never mind. I saw blkshp and though this was another channel.23:36
raccoon_dogDisregard.23:36
raccoon_dogs/though/thought23:36
DocScrutinizer05LjL: this is a tad non-compatible with longer lines that also have parts that aren't direct speech23:36
gigasu_shidalol ljl can't help turning #covid into #linguistics or #english momentarily23:36
blkshpSorry, we are a little off topic for here! :D23:36
blkshpSorry!23:36
raccoon_dogXD23:36
LjLDocScrutinizer05: yes, we also use "quotation marks". It depends on the use case23:37
LjLgigasu_shida: I probably can't, it's true23:37
LjLI only know a couple of things and two of them have to do with language23:37
gigasu_shidalol23:38
DocScrutinizer05I appreciate imroving my english. I mean, where do you learn *correct* enhlish once you left school?23:39
blkshpEnglish*23:40
gigasu_shidaonce you've left school*23:40
LjLThe internet, with some judicious application of discernment and consciousness about different registers23:40
DocScrutinizer05I'm afraid my English gets worse rather than better, every year23:40
raccoon_dogDocScrutinizer05: The common way is to consume English-language media and interact with native speakers.23:40
LjLDocScrutinizer05: I have that feeling too lately, I suspect it has to do with aging ;(23:40
raccoon_dogThat's a general thing, yeah.23:41
gigasu_shidasome ppl reach a plateau and never get better beyond a certain point, some people (like ljl) go beyond perfection and begin teaching natives how to write better in english23:41
DocScrutinizer05raccoon_dog: my problem is I usually can't even tell apart native speakers from those who got worse english skills than I do23:41
raccoon_dogOh, yeah. I was going to say -- there are quite a few mistakes made by even educated native speakers. 23:42
raccoon_dogDocScrutinizer05: The most common way, unfortunately, is via spoken language. The accent gives it away.23:42
raccoon_dogI say "unfortunately" because that's not easy to do nowadays because of, well, you-know-what.23:42
blkshpraccoon_dog and I will activate ultra correction mode.23:42
DocScrutinizer05english, even23:42
blkshpEnglish*23:42
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +24864 cases (now 3.6 million), +516 deaths (now 97939) since 16 hours ago — Switzerland: +15 deaths (now 9065) since 21 hours ago23:42
raccoon_doglol @ blkshp 23:43
blkshp:D23:43
DocScrutinizer05well, I write all lowercase even in german. That's actually a pathetic habit23:43
raccoon_dogMy understanding is that German requires all nouns, even nonproper ones, to be capitalized, though ... ?23:44
blkshpI've been known to annoy people out of bad habits.23:44
gigasu_shidawriting in all lowercase is good23:44
blkshpWell* German* habit.*23:44
DocScrutinizer05raccoon_dog: yep23:44
blkshpgigasu_shida: No, not good. Poor.23:44
blkshpI will shutup when people get bored ;)23:45
LjLgigasu_shida: "beyond perfection" is ridiculous, get over worshipping me, you should have had ample opportunity by now to notice I'm quirky in a number of way. A friend likes (to my chagrin) to list short English words that rhyme or that look like they rhyme but don't, and quizzes me on the pronunciation and/or meaning. Then he's surprised that I don't know many of the ones he considers simple or even trivial. But for the most part, those are words you can 23:45
LjLhear in casual spoken language much more frequently than you read them in written language or hear them in a prepared YouTube speech. So I think the fact that my words tend to be Latinate or so makes native speakers assume that I must know the "simpler" words. But those are a different category23:45
blkshpPlay the auto-antonym game23:46
DocScrutinizer05on topic: can anybody tell me why here in germany everybody is haunting like bad for the new variants? What would change when they find a case of B1.1.7? Isn't the supposed procedure all the same?23:46
DocScrutinizer05like mad, too23:47
gigasu_shidai didn't start worshipping you until you became a virologist btw23:47
LjLI think sequencing and following the variants is crucial to keeping (or forming) a decent idea of what is going on23:47
gigasu_shidahaunting?23:47
LjLgigasu_shida: I never "became a virologist" though23:47
raccoon_dogWell, what one considers "simple" or "trivial" is kind of just that person's opinion. If you're used to digesting highbrow literature that uses more obscure, recondite words, you may subconsciously absorb them and think they are "normal".23:47
gigasu_shidaok, an armchair virologist23:48
MKVA51-hope all are doing well?23:51
DocScrutinizer05LjL: well, the idea for the scientific thrill, yes. The measures are all the same, no matter if we had zilch or 100% VoC ratio23:51
DocScrutinizer05no?23:51
LjLraccoon_dog: there is a baseline to what native speakers tend to perceive as more everyday, though. It tends to be Germanic words, short ones, and phrasal verbs. English is very much a "dual vocabulary" language (even more than two if we dissect the stratification, but let's make it two). There are probably a bunch of meanings of "get" combined with some adverbs that I don't grasp or at least don't use naturally, while at the same time surprising people with 23:51
LjLwords like "refractory" that they have to look up. That is due to my native language having a partial match with English lexicon23:51
raccoon_dogLjL: Yeah, I hear you. People who've studied Latin and Classic Greek are also at an advantage for that very reason. I'm guessing your first language is Italian -- a Romance language, so it shares a lot of things with Latin, which then in turn helps with English.23:52
LjLDocScrutinizer05: many things done for the "scientific thrill" turn out to have very practical applications that weren't initially obvious, and I think science would be a much lesser thing if it didn't research things just for the sake of knowing. But anyway, given there are tensions about the vaccination strategy to use, I'd wager whether we have strong presence of a variant that spreads faster and/or is more lethal will change policymakers' opinions on which 23:53
LjLto use23:53
DocScrutinizer05re "English": you know when 5 people have a business meeting and exactly one of them is a native English speaker, then after the meeting exactly 4 made their point in the discussion and 4 wonder what was the message of the fifth ;-D23:53
DocScrutinizer05LjL: ((vaccination strategy)) very valid point indeed23:55
raccoon_dogAnd, yeah ."Refractory" is one of those obscure words, I guess.23:55
DocScrutinizer05see? ;-) yet another proprietary punctuation23:55
LjLDocScrutinizer05: also, we have many variables and many confounders, and we must fight to reduce them. Is the curve going up/down because the NPIs are/aren't working, or because a different variant is taking hold? Are deaths and hospitalizations going up/down because we've gotten better/worse at treating, or because a different variant is around? That is important23:55
DocScrutinizer05yetg one more very valid point. Thanks a lot23:56
DocScrutinizer05once again I been too focused on the mere basics: R_eff23:57
DocScrutinizer05which seems nailed by nine inch nails to 0.923:58
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: Trial By Error: Game-Changing Articles in The Guardian and The New York Times: By David Tuller, DrPH The relationship between what is being called long-Covid and ME/CFS (and its variants) is complex. The conditions overlap in ways that are poorly understood, and the mechanisms through which they produce such significant [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ToZACh23:59

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