libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2021-01-28

de-facto.title https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/3/398/htm00:08
Brainstormde-facto: From www.mdpi.com: JCM | Free Full-Text | “Go To Travel” Campaign and Travel-Associated Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases: A Descriptive Analysis, July–August 2020 | HTML00:08
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: New coronavirus variants spreading across U.S., White House experts say: (HealthDay)—New and more infectious coronavirus variants are beginning to appear in the United States, but all have remained vulnerable to the two vaccines now being distributed to Americans, the White House COVID-19 Response Team said Wednesday. → https://is.gd/r2f1HH00:08
de-facto"The Japanese government initiated the Go To Travel campaign on 22 July 2020, offering deep discounts on hotel charges and issuing coupons to be used for any consumption at travel destinations in Japan.00:15
de-facto"00:15
de-facto"The incidence of travel-associated COVID-19 cases during the tourism campaign was approximately three times greater than the control period 22 June to 21 July 2020 and approximately 1.5 times greater than the control period of 15 to 19 July."00:15
de-facto"The incidence owing to tourism was approximately 8 times and 2–3 times greater than the control periods of 22 June to 21 July and 15 to 19 July, respectively."00:15
de-facto"Although the second epidemic wave in Japan had begun to decline by mid-August, enhanced domestic tourism may have contributed to increasing travel-associated COVID-19 cases during 22 to 26 July, the early stage of the Go To Travel campaign."00:15
de-factoOf course that is the expected result, increasing contact rates of traveling, potentially infected people from a foreign region with (anonymous) transmission to local regions is pretty much the worst thing imaginable00:17
de-factoand they did not even look at variants00:17
de-factowe will observe this now globally with N501Y and unfortunately also with E484K (that makes vaccines more ineffective)00:18
de-facto.title https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-risk-assessment-spread-new-variants-concern-eueea-first-update00:20
Brainstormde-facto: From www.ecdc.europa.eu: Risk related to the spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the EU/EEA – first update00:20
de-facto"The overall risk associated with the introduction and community spread of variants of concern is therefore assessed as being high/very high."00:22
de-facto"In order to slow down the importation and spread of the new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, ECDC recommends that non-essential travel should be avoided."00:23
de-facto" In addition to recommendations against non-essential travel, and restrictions on travel for those infected, travel measures such as the testing and quarantining of travellers should be maintained, in particular for travellers from areas with a higher incidence of the new variants."00:23
de-facto"If sequencing is inadequate to exclude the possibility of a higher incidence of the new variants, as per ECDC guidance on genomic sequencing, proportionate travel measures should also be considered from areas where there is a continued high level of community transmission."00:24
de-factotbh i dont understand why airports are still open for passenger travel at all00:24
de-factowhats so essential with those lovely travelers that its worth risking 1) the containment success (e.g. with importing more transmissible variants) 2) treatment success (e.g. with importing more resistant variants to treatments like monoclonal antibodies, mark my words...) 3) risking vaccination success (with importing (partly) evasive mutants) either long term (threshold of vaccination protection may be reached earlier) or even short term 00:28
de-facto(the more evasive variants also may escape earlier as seen in SA and Manaus etc)00:28
LjLdzho: I am not sure about the state of NY in particular and not even about any exact statistics, but I am under the understanding that in-household transmission, i.e. just people who live in the same place, is usually found to be by far the most prevalent way of transmission. Sort of obvious maybe. Can there be any interventions for that? Sure, you could in theory take the infected person to an hotel, which is theoretically done here in cases where the place 00:34
LjLis not large enough to "self-isolate at home", but I'd say more importantly, quarantine the whole household, not just the one person. That may also be obvious but I'm not sure it's always done...00:34
de-factohttps://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501?c=gt-S_50100:38
de-factohttps://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?c=gt-S_48400:38
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Comment] Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence: After initially containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many European and Asian countries had a resurgence of COVID-19 consistent with a large proportion of the population remaining susceptible to the virus [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/jAtwOQ00:44
de-factohttps://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.H69-?c=gt-S_69,501,45300:46
de-factoi wonder how future generations will think about this if they read in the history that governments paid tourism industry and passenger flights with taxpayers money to support the spread and import of new more problematic variants of concern of a pathogen that brings their healthcare system on the edge of collapse and potentially makes the only effective measures such as vaccinations or highly specific therapies like monoclonal antibodies 00:52
de-facto(partly) ineffective00:52
de-factothere oh there just another link about this from Brainstorm above00:53
de-facto.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext?rss=yes00:53
Brainstormde-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence - The Lancet00:53
BrainstormUpdates for Antigua and Barb.: +14 cases (now 215) since 2 days ago00:54
LjLde-facto: what is site 69 about?00:55
de-factoi think its also related to evasive potential, either by its own or in synergy with other mutations00:55
de-facto.title https://github.com/hodcroftlab/covariants/blob/master/README.md#sh69-00:56
Brainstormde-facto: From github.com: covariants/README.md at master · hodcroftlab/covariants · GitHub00:56
de-facto"The estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Manaus would be above the theoretical herd immunity threshold (67%), given a basic case reproduction number (R0) of 3."00:57
de-facto"In this context, the abrupt increase in the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions in Manaus during January, 2021 (3431 in Jan 1–19, 2021, vs 552 in Dec 1–19, 2020) is unexpected and of concern"00:57
de-facto"After a large epidemic that peaked in late April, 2020, COVID-19 hospitalisations in Manaus remained stable and fairly low for 7 months from May to November, despite the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures during that period "00:57
LjLYes, great news01:01
de-factonow they are standing in the queue to get their oxygen gas flasks refilled to try to save the life of their family members at home because hospitals are full01:03
de-factoits not good at all there, we urgently need to get incidence down and vaccines updated01:04
de-factoand as much as i hate to repeat it, traveling should stop01:04
de-facto.title https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-5567031801:08
de-facto"Covid-19: Brazil hospitals 'run out of oxygen' for virus patients"01:08
de-facto.title https://www.npr.org/2021/01/22/959567446/coronavirus-crisis-gets-even-worse-in-brazilian-amazon-city-of-manaus?t=161179241178001:08
de-facto"Coronavirus Crisis Gets 'Even Worse' In Brazilian Amazon City Of Manaus"01:08
de-factobtw thats also the reason why we need to coordinate and synchronize vaccination campaign globally and do as many vaccinations in as short time as possible01:18
Brainstormde-facto: From www.bbc.com: Covid-19: Brazil hospitals 'run out of oxygen' for virus patients - BBC News01:18
Brainstormde-facto: From www.npr.org: NPR Cookie Consent and Choices01:18
de-factowhat good would be vaccination in one country when a new evasive mutant is allowed to emerge in another country and then imported by air-travel?01:19
de-factothis is also the reason why vaccines such as the AstraZeneca one are so important, not all country have the infrastructure to deliver vaccine doses to all of their citizens with a cold chain suitable for current gen mRNA vaccines01:20
de-factowe need to stale production up massively and also make the vaccines accessible to as many as possible 01:20
de-facto*we need to scale up production01:21
LjLde-facto: honestly if the Brazilian variant escapes existing antibodies as much as that paper suggests, I seriously doubt that a vaccine like AZ that seems really not all that effective even without the variant will work very well. If Pfizer and Moderna barely work, to the point they are working on boosters...01:27
de-factowell to be honest we only have in vitro data afaik, so only a hint but not real hard data in vivo01:27
de-factoyet that peak in prevalence in Manaus really is worrysome01:28
de-factoand i expect all of the vaccine manufacturers to test their vaccine against the new variants (hopefully with the full live virus) in the lab to compare the neutralization titers with the normal non-mutated variants (that come closest to the mutants)01:29
de-factonot easy but id assume they have an interest in their vaccine to remain effective also in future, hence work on an update early on to get approval 01:30
de-factoyet it depends on scaling up production too, imho still a technical problem to be solved01:31
DocScrutinizer05seroprevalence is a fuzzy term. Immunity from infection is significantly inferior to that achieved by (mRNA) vaccination, I heard01:34
DocScrutinizer05I'd like to hear more (any?) details about the state and daily progress in joint efforts to spot and establish/convert further fabs. Like, even if it takes 9 months it's still worth it, no? And who knows maybe they can find a lucky coincidence where they can cut corners01:38
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +38360 cases (now 2.7 million) since 23 hours ago — France: +24528 cases (now 3.1 million) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +5325 cases (now 965885), +81 deaths (now 13753) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +3505 cases (now 761815) since 23 hours ago01:50
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: Thorwald: /* New Variant Assessment Platform */ date fmt to match rest of article: New Variant Assessment Platform: date fmt to match rest of article ← Previous revision Revision as of 00:46, 28 January 2021 Line 241: Line 241: ==New Variant Assessment Platform== ==New Variant Assessment Platform== − On [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z02:08
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: 'Virus going in right direction but not fast enough' → https://is.gd/499W1O02:33
LjLshould it go FASTER?02:34
dTalI think "the right direction" is "away" and yes it should go that way faster02:37
raccoon_dogIf "right direction" there means "away from this clusterf*ck of a pandemic", yes, it should go in that direction at lightspeed.02:38
dTalthat's what I said02:40
LjLwell if by "right direction" they mean "away from us", then sure02:40
dTalalmost word for word02:40
raccoon_dogYes.02:41
BrainstormUpdates for Sint Maarten: +40 cases (now 1807) since a day ago02:58
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Decrying vaccines, Tanzania leader says 'God will protect' from COVID-19 → https://is.gd/sPnRdO03:23
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Vaccination Against the New Variants: Real-World Data (81 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/27/vaccination-against-the-new-variants-real-world-data | https://redd.it/l685dy03:23
BrainstormUpdates for Bolivia: +2866 cases (now 208074), +62 deaths (now 10167) since a day ago — Switzerland: +56 deaths (now 9260) since 8 hours ago03:35
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +4 cases (now 2299) since 23 hours ago04:18
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @matthewherper: RT by @Dereklowe: Hey doctors. It occurs to me that if our system worked, people would be asking you their Covid vaccine and antibody questions, not me. → https://is.gd/oL1E6c04:24
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese cities using anal swabs to screen COVID infections → https://is.gd/ESRZ6504:49
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: ScrupulousScribe at 03:48, 28 January 2021: ← Previous revision Revision as of 03:48, 28 January 2021 Line 165: Line 165: ===N501Y=== ===N501Y=== N501Y denotes a change from [[asparagine]] (N) to [[tyrosine]] (Y) in [[amino-acid]] position 501. {{cite report [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z05:01
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Cancer Drug Shows Potent Activity in the Lab Against SARS-CoV-2, Including B.1.1.7 Variant (81 votes) | https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/01/419686/cancer-drug-shows-potent-activity-lab-against-sars-cov-2-including-b117-variant | https://redd.it/l6ktid05:36
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +3020 cases (now 699662), +54 deaths (now 20933) since 23 hours ago06:10
whytekde-facto, I read a lot of your message with interest. but I often wonder, so I will ask what is your training or experience etc? Of course feel free to not ansser or PM06:14
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 712: Deutscher Virus Wahnsinn: Gisa, Steffi, and César join TWiV to discuss their careers, their research, and the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. → https://is.gd/VUwWfV06:14
whytek*answer06:14
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: COVID-19: 1 in 3 adults anxious, depressed: COVID-19 has led to psychological distress among one in three adults, systematic review and meta-analysis reveals. → https://is.gd/9LZKMw06:26
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence (81 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext | https://redd.it/l6izbc06:42
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Entrepreneurs benefit more from emotional intelligence than other competencies, such as IQ: Running a successful business has its challenges, but the COVID-19 pandemic has required many owners to pivot and look for new ways to operate profitably while keeping employees and consumers safe. Research from the Indiana University [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Oov2hh06:51
BrainstormUpdates for Cundinamarca, Colombia: +2349 cases (now 92446), +66 deaths (now 2345) since a day ago — Nuevo Leon, Mexico: +1473 cases (now 103796), +77 deaths (now 6445) since a day ago — Boyaca, Colombia: +967 cases (now 40444), +32 deaths (now 848) since a day ago — France: +26937 cases (now 3.1 million), +257 deaths (now 74528) since 10 hours ago07:12
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Backlash grows for ‘selfish millionaire’ who got vaccine meant for Indigenous people | Canada → https://is.gd/SSuFEg07:15
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Taiwanese man fined $35K for breaking home quarantine 7 times → https://is.gd/eSpG2807:28
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Inequitable distribution of coronavirus vaccines risks exacerbating financial vulnerabilities: IMF → https://is.gd/eSdOLX07:40
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: HueMan1: /* New Variant Assessment Platform */: New Variant Assessment Platform ← Previous revision Revision as of 06:50, 28 January 2021 Line 168: Line 168: ==New Variant Assessment Platform== ==New Variant Assessment Platform== − On 26 January 2021, the British government said it would share its [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z07:52
PoonFly%cases vietname08:42
BrainstormPoonFly: Sorry, vietname not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.08:42
PoonFly%cases vietnam08:43
BrainstormPoonFly: In Vietnam, there have been 1553 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 35 deaths (2.3% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 1.5 million tests were performed (0.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Vietnam for time series data.08:43
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 28, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/YM3aT309:06
jacklswvietnam remains relatively covid-free09:26
PoonFlyI'm sure, because there are some new cases this morning and Tet is coming, people will travel a lots09:28
PoonFly*I'm not sure09:31
jacklswmalaysia is not doing so good after the 3rd wave09:32
jacklsw:(09:32
de-factowhytek, my training or experience should not really matter (as i could tell anything and nobody could verify anyhow), yet i tell you anyhow my expertise is in an empirical science, yet my interest in molecular biology, virology and epidemiology just began last year due to the pandemic09:32
de-factoalso i am no medical expert or immunologist, but in my social circle there are some 09:34
BrainstormUpdates for Turks and Caicos: +75 cases (now 1387) since a day ago09:35
PoonFlyjacklsw Are you from Malaysia?09:35
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Pfizer vaccine only slightly less effective against key South African mutations: study (10101 votes) | https://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_2_MOLT/idUSKBN29W31M | https://redd.it/l6iiyv09:43
jacklswyes i'm from malaysia09:44
jacklsw2nd round of pseudo-lockdown09:45
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: Yadsalohcin: Check/ expand ref; w/l x2; rmv duplicate word: Check/ expand ref; w/l x2; rmv duplicate word ← Previous revision Revision as of 08:57, 28 January 2021 Line 168: Line 168: ==New Variant Assessment Platform== ==New Variant Assessment Platform== − On 26 January 2021, the British government [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z10:08
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO team in Wuhan departs quarantine for COVID origins study → https://is.gd/sDPq5J10:20
ArsaneritAre data from Vietnam reliable?10:24
python476good question10:27
ArsaneritI tend to distrust data from one-party states with limited or no freedom of the press.10:30
python476I always found their number and management very noble10:30
python476but anything too good should be read with caution10:30
jacklswcan't deny they are doing better than most of the world10:31
ArsaneritAuthoritarian systems do have an advantage in the effectivity of imposing and enforcing lockdowns.10:32
python476true10:33
python476a lot of western countries fought for their 'freedom' but it was mostly immature and backfiring10:33
python476it's good for the history book industry10:33
ArsaneritWhose freedom?10:34
python476nobody10:34
python476it was a mobthink reaction10:34
ArsaneritAre you referring to the Vietnam War for "freedom" or to the 19th and 20th century revolutions and other changes in Europe?10:34
python476nope10:34
python476just USA/France/Others recent manifestations against wearing masks10:35
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: New coronavirus variants call for intensified surveillance, control, and vaccination efforts: In a globalized world, no country is protected until all countries are protected. All need to unite and establish effective governance to combat the global threat from the novel #coronavirus… → https://is.gd/jM5Yc010:45
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: EU and AstraZeneca seek to resolve vaccine supply crisis → https://is.gd/ru6XhZ11:22
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: when ever again I start commenting daily reporting numbers, please tell me "shut up"11:34
DocScrutinizer05on that topic: we're still at R_eff=0.912:00
DocScrutinizer05in D12:03
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: WHO team leaves Wuhan quarantine to start COVID probe → https://is.gd/k7ua1J12:06
solsticedhiver[mhi. do you have more news than that https://science.slashdot.org/story/21/01/27/2247243/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil12:12
DocScrutinizer05sure12:13
DocScrutinizer05see /topic12:14
DocScrutinizer05https://covid19.specops.network/12:15
DocScrutinizer05search for "variant"12:16
DocScrutinizer05well, maybe not much about the "bolsonaro variant" yet.12:18
DocScrutinizer05solsticedhiver[m: just stay tuned, news emerging several a day12:23
solsticedhiver[myes.12:25
DocScrutinizer05solsticedhiver[m: also prolly useful:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-212:26
DocScrutinizer05https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Lineage_P.1   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.1.24812:26
solsticedhiver[mDocScrutinizer05: thank you12:28
DocScrutinizer05yw12:28
DocScrutinizer05the dominant notion is "it's the variant with highest potential for immune escape"12:30
DocScrutinizer05everybody is waiting anxiously for better studies12:31
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +3966 cases (now 293052), +8 deaths (now 819) since 13 hours ago — Lesotho: +95 cases (now 8142), +14 deaths (now 160) since a day ago12:41
BrainstormNew from NPR: COVID-19 Infections Surge In Europe As Vaccines Lag: Local officials in Madrid suspended its vaccination program for two weeks because of a lack of doses. → https://is.gd/mSB3zG12:42
DocScrutinizer05what I didn't hear at all yet: how many of the 2nd infections actually develop severe and possibly lethal symptoms. Maybe we must live with covid returning each year like flu, but when you're either vaccinated or suffered a covid episode already, you're maybe not very prone to severe harm12:48
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Stories from a Past Pandemic: Telephone operator wears protective gauze during 1918’s flu pandemic. → https://is.gd/RWCSOV12:54
solsticedhiver[mYes. that's what I believe already, even without evidence or scientific data13:02
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: It's Time to Consider Vaccine Mandates in High-Risk Settings: Leaving vaccination to individual choice is unacceptably high in places like nursing homes, long-term care facilities and prisons -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/IrF88Z13:06
DocScrutinizer05I mean, not even vaccination provides a 100% protection against infection and we know that recovering from infection doesn't yield the same level of protection as vaccination. So a certain percentage of thosw who had covid _are_ expected to suffer a second infection. That's not anything special or new13:08
DocScrutinizer05the point rather being that afaik 100% of vaccinated were protected against *severe* covid13:09
DocScrutinizer05this last one is very much handwaving, I have no good data and source for this, only casual mentioning during interviews etc13:11
DocScrutinizer05people still way to much are within a model of black and white thinking. Either you catch the virus and die or you get vaccinated and are 100% immune. Neither is correct13:13
DocScrutinizer05there most certainly also won't be a 100% sterile immunity, or if then only in a very small percentage of vaccinated people. Most people still will replicate the virus though massively reduced amoount13:14
DocScrutinizer05and without many symptoms13:15
solsticedhiver[mok. interesting13:24
rpifanhi13:28
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Data on country response measures to COVID-19: This downloadable data file contains information on non-pharmaceutical interventions (or response measures)  that countries in the EU/EEA have reported to date. → https://is.gd/6BvFYG13:29
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: The pandemic paradox, hope and hardship in equal measure: Vaccines, on the one hand, offer remarkable hope. On the other hand, newly emerging variants of concern are presenting greater uncertainty and risk. In the face of new, more transmissible variants of the virus, we will need to keep our guard up. This is the time we must draw [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/D0iVrm13:42
Haley[m]%cases France13:49
BrainstormHaley[m]: In France, there have been 3.1 million confirmed cases (4.7% of the population) and 74528 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 42.5 million tests were performed (7.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data.13:49
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Event: Press briefing on EU recommendation for COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, Virtual meeting, from 29/01/2021 to 29/01/2021 → https://is.gd/ZZBJ5J14:07
dTalDocScrutinizer05: I think that every time I hear someone say "we don't know if the vaccine prevents transmission"14:13
dTalI'm pretty sure we have a very good idea about broadly what the vaccine does14:13
dTalvaccinated people still sometimes get sick even, so they can certainly transmit virus14:14
Arsanerit"the vaccine"?  There are many...14:29
rpifanyes14:29
BrainstormNew from The Atlantic: Two Weeks of Quarantine Is a Tennis Pro’s Worst Nightmare: In the spring, after my beloved, overpriced New York exercise studios closed one grim “In these unprecedented times” email after another, I did what any aspiring workout enthusiast with a little cash to burn might do: I got out my credit card and I bought monthly [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/AXhacd14:30
ArsaneritThe AstraZeneca vaccine in Germany is only recommended for below-65-year olds.14:32
Arsanerithttps://www.tagesschau.de/inland/stiko-astrazeneca-101.html14:33
rpifanhm14:34
ArsaneritI thought that was EMAs decision tomorrow so I'm a bit confused about the responsibilities now.14:34
dTalArsanerit: any vaccinre14:42
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China Is Now Requiring COVID-19 Tests Taken by Anal Swab → https://is.gd/vbMAD414:43
DocScrutinizer05STIKO decides on strategy, EMA approves the product. EMA may approve without restriction for >65 as long as there's no concern about adverse effects in that cohort. still STIKO may recommend to use other vaccines on >6514:44
DocScrutinizer05actually STIKO suggests *german* strategy, while EMA approves for whole EU but doesn't suggest strategy usually14:46
DocScrutinizer05my take on it14:47
DocScrutinizer05the mere efficiency allone (~70%) of AZ suggests you rather should use the ~95% effective mRNA vaccines for elderly who suffer a particularly high risk for severe covid when catching it14:50
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +15817 cases (now 2.2 million) since 23 hours ago14:51
DocScrutinizer05some prof yesterday put it like this: in a group of 200 in a care home hit by the virus, without vaccination a 50 will get sick. When all get vaccinated with AZ, a 15 will. With BNT it's 314:53
DocScrutinizer05I'm parroting without thoroughly having checked the numbers. They look plausible though14:54
generabut that would apply to e.g. a fire brigade too14:56
DocScrutinizer05yes14:56
DocScrutinizer05but in a fire brigade a maybe 0.2% of infected will die, un care home maybe 20% (attention, those numbers are completely made up just to show the principle)14:58
generanot really. an infected fire brigade is in quarantäne 100% of them15:00
DocScrutinizer05hmm?15:01
DocScrutinizer05how's that related?15:01
generai want the fire brigade protected too. not only .. others15:02
DocScrutinizer05I assumed the fire brigade is maybe 30 years younger average than care home15:02
generaand if one of them tests positive, the rest goes into quarantäne15:02
DocScrutinizer05so their risk to die from covid is lower without vaccination than the risk in care home is with vaccination15:02
generawhen they are in quarantäne, no one is coming to fight fire15:03
DocScrutinizer05I don't see how quarantine has a role in this model15:03
generayou are argueing, that everyone below 65 can die because only somedie15:04
DocScrutinizer05you completely lost me except I can tell for sure you're quoting me incorrectly15:05
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +1699 cases (now 519404), +82 deaths (now 9286) since 20 hours ago15:10
DocScrutinizer05again: attacked cohort size 200; without vaccination you get 50 infected, with AZ 15, with BNT 3. If the cohort average age is >70 you see 100 times more fatalities than when average age < 4515:10
DocScrutinizer05there's no quarantine, no fire brigae and no other assumptions in this15:11
DocScrutinizer05and again, all those numbers are not confirmed and some even ballpark figures15:12
DocScrutinizer05with AZ I'd guess you still might see 2 or 3 fatalities in the 200 care gome cohort. *WITHOUT* vaccine you'll most certainly see not a single fatality in the middle age fire brigade cohort15:15
DocScrutinizer05and honestly, musing about fire brigade situation and quarantine, I think if THOSE can't manage to comply with effective NPI and compartmentalization of shifts, then who else could15:22
Raf[m]what do you think is the most promising treatment for COVID now, ivermectin?15:46
Arsaneritprevention > cure16:15
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Virtual event: Preventing a black market for Covid-19 vaccines: STAT convenes a panel of experts to discuss the ethics of Covid-19 vaccine distribution how to make sure shots get to where they need to go. → https://is.gd/h9FozN16:54
DocScrutinizer05Raf[m]: there's still no really reliably working tested treatment for covid. "Promising" I don't dare to speculate. Is a single dose of monoclonal antibodies that costs 2000€, given as early as "umm, there's a positive test" really promising?17:10
DocScrutinizer05if you can afford this and can get unapproved protomeds then by all means, this is your remedy17:11
Raf[m]> prevention > cure17:11
Raf[m]Agreed17:11
BrainstormUpdates for St. Martin: +88 cases (now 1234) since 7 days ago — St. Barthelemy: +60 cases (now 360) since 7 days ago17:14
DocScrutinizer05for us mere mortals odds rather are we don't even get a test, not thinking about the result, in time for that antibody treatment to be effective17:14
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: Benbest: 300,000 with citation: 300,000 with citation ← Previous revision Revision as of 16:25, 28 January 2021 Line 3: Line 3: {{redirect|New coronavirus variant|recent species of coronavirus|Novel coronavirus|and|Coronavirus}} {{redirect|New coronavirus variant|recent species of coronavirus|Novel [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z17:28
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US jobless claims drop; still at 847,000 as pandemic rages → https://is.gd/ai20sG17:51
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: In Vitro Studies Demonstrate Pfizer and BioNTechCOVID-19 Vaccine Elicits Antibodies that Neutralize SARS-CoV-2 with Key Mutations Present in U.K. and South African Variants (82 votes) | https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2021-01/Preprint_UK_SA_Key_Mutations_Statement.pdf | https://redd.it/l6vs1t18:24
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: Black over-80s 'half as likely' to have been vaccinated: A unique study of millions of patient records identifies "substantial" differences in vaccine coverage. → https://is.gd/d0Ftxh18:25
BrainstormUpdates for Portugal: +16432 cases (now 685383), +303 deaths (now 11608) since a day ago — Albania: +887 cases (now 75454), +11 deaths (now 1350) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +23389 cases (now 3.7 million), +1140 deaths (now 103126) since 11 hours ago — Canada: +3626 cases (now 763837) since 23 hours ago18:34
LjLDocScrutinizer05: I bought one FFP2 3M Aura (no valve) to try but I'm not so happy to be honest. The rubber bands seem *extremely* flimsy and so tight it's hard to put it on and it feels like they're about to snap at any time... Then well subjectively the fact there is a good fit, but without a valve, I feel *immediately* like it's getting warm and wet inside the mask, even though I just tried it at home without even moving. My mom would go panic attack-y 18:37
LjLimmediately.18:37
LjLThe very first FFP2 we bought... I don't know what brand it was really, it was a valved mask, but it had a back-of-the-head band system I never saw in other masks: it was just one long elastic band (but not "elastic" as in rubber, some sturdy but flexible fiber) and the mask had holes at the side to let this band slide freely. So it was easy to put it on because you'd just slide the band so that it would be very wide, out it on with the band on your neck, then 18:40
LjLslide the band again putting the rest of it to the back of your head18:40
LjLWhile this 3M just has two bands attached to the mask via metal staples18:41
dTalI mean... getting warm and wet inside the mask is the *point*18:46
dTalthat moisture is potentially covid-laden18:46
python476o/18:46
dTalwhich is not to diminish your mom's panic attacks, just saying that that's inherent to any functional, valveless mask18:47
dTalit's the entire reason they started putting valves on masks18:47
BrainstormNew from NPR: South Carolina Reports 1st Known U.S. Cases Of Variant From South Africa: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the variant, known as B 1.351, has been found in South Carolina. → https://is.gd/f3ltgN18:49
DocScrutinizer05LjL: I wish I could have tested one18:50
DocScrutinizer05the elastic band you describe is exactly my Draeger masks18:51
DocScrutinizer05yay, 29919:01
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus: Germany set to limit AstraZeneca jab to under-65s: German vaccine officials say there is not enough data about the jab, which is widely used in the UK. → https://is.gd/8QBzef19:02
Joerg-Neo900300! :-D19:02
DocScrutinizer05re "Germany set to limit AstraZeneca jab to under-65s" I wonder which regime they seek to certify now, the 100|100 or the supposedly much more effective 50|10019:06
DocScrutinizer0518 kids caught SA variant in Freiburg. BW MP Kretschmann reverts his special handling of opening kindergardens and schools next week. OHMY Kretschmann, didn't we tell you?19:12
DocScrutinizer05Some politicians... :-x  No Words19:14
LjLDocScrutinizer05, do you mean the 3M style, or the fancier style i described? unfortunately i have no way of finding out what brand that mask was... i threw it away when it started getting moldy, and wasn't thinking enough to note down its name19:18
DocScrutinizer05the latter19:19
DocScrutinizer05a "clothes elastic vand" loop through holes19:20
DocScrutinizer05https://i.imgur.com/36PZ1pa.png  Draeger X-Plore 173019:24
DocScrutinizer05LjL: ^^^19:30
LjLDocScrutinizer05, right. mine was a different mask for sure, but same concept19:30
LjLi have considered buying a Dräger but it's just that a 3M was available on Amazon, a Dräger wasn't...19:31
DocScrutinizer05I had bought the 3M but only the Draeger were available ;-D19:32
DocScrutinizer05there's a 3M Aura with valve and cover over the valve so it counts as valveless since it filters exhale too. Unobtainium, sadly19:33
DocScrutinizer05a very few shops list it on backorder, and usually costs more than gold19:36
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +14360 cases (now 2.5 million), +492 deaths (now 87381) since a day ago — Botswana: +635 cases (now 21293), +10 deaths (now 134) since 3 days ago19:36
DocScrutinizer05tangential: LjL what do you think of the table colors in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Summary ?19:37
LjLi don't see anything wrong with that19:42
LjLexcept that it's not very up to date19:42
LjLi'd say south african antigenicity is more than just "undergoing investigation", but last time i looked we only had a preprint to establish it19:43
LjL(they don't accept preprints on wikipedia)19:43
DocScrutinizer05LjL: I swapped the colors so red now means "look here!"19:51
DocScrutinizer05compare https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2&oldid=1003368979#Summary19:52
LjLDocScrutinizer05, oh, yes, i think your way makes more sense19:54
LjLhttps://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/l74lva/german_officials_say_astrazeneca_vaccine_shouldnt/gl4o1ke/?context=3  (see comment also, not just article)19:55
LjL%vax curevac19:58
BrainstormLjL, mRNA is a RNA-based vaccine developed in Germany by CureVac, which began its testing on humans on date Jun 18 with 36500 healthy volunteers aged 18+ → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/CureVac19:58
LjLde-facto, is this one you had on your radar?19:59
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Policy: State reps try to ban Comcast data cap and price hikes until pandemic is over → https://is.gd/jwfJTq20:00
DocScrutinizer05LjL: last gossip from TV interviewing renowned virologists has it AZ ran some studies with "young" and "elderly" and the results shown no difference between both groups20:00
LjLyeah20:00
DocScrutinizer05I stillwonder how they *accidentally* managed to use a 50% first shot20:02
LjLi don't know, a lot about the AZ data seems a bit sketchy imo20:04
LjLby the way, i bought the 3M mask partly for my mom since she was going to get her hair done today (i know... but it's been months)20:05
LjLbut i completely failed to realize when i bought it that that's one case where you definitely need ear loops!20:05
LjLthe bands that go behind your head, well, that won't work :P20:05
bourbonwoo20:10
bourbonhere's how the US will make sure there's enough vaccine to go around: get everyone infected, first20:10
de-factoLjL, oh yeah20:12
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Early anticoagulation may not up survival in severe COVID-19: (HealthDay)—Early therapeutic anticoagulation does not appear to affect survival among critically ill adults with COVID-19, according to a study published online Jan. 26 in the Annals of Internal Medicine. → https://is.gd/Vqnv7C20:13
LjLbourbon, to be fair the US is vaccinating much faster than the EU is, at this time20:13
DocScrutinizer05LjL: gaffa tape ;-D20:15
DocScrutinizer05FSCK, it's raining and I'm short on food supply, and next shop 3km away20:17
de-factoLjL, havent seen data from them yet or publications hence my curiosity and also that they seem to use very low doses of only 12µg mRNA (non-nucleotide modified)20:18
DocScrutinizer05>>—Early therapeutic anticoagulation does not appear to affect survival<< !!???  :-/20:19
LjLde-facto, i have something here https://www.curevac.com/en/2021/01/11/curevacs-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-cvncov-demonstrated-efficient-protection-of-non-human-primates-during-sars-cov-2-challenge-infection/ (which contains a link to a biorxiv paper) and here https://www.curevac.com/en/2020/12/14/curevac-commences-global-pivotal-phase-2b-3-trial-for-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-cvncov/20:20
LjLDocScrutinizer05, i think the whole blood clotting problem is much trickier to solve than "give them a blood thinner" :(20:20
DocScrutinizer05obviously20:21
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Debunking the Covid deniers who enter hospitals: A man making false statements about Covid-19 tried to remove a sick patient from hospital. → https://is.gd/slZHS820:25
bourbonmy parents and inlaws got hit by covid a couple weeks ago20:38
bourbonalong with brother and BiL20:38
bourbononly ones left in my family at this point are me and the grandparents20:38
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Discovery stops testing Remdesivir against Covid-19 for lack of evidence of its efficacy (80 votes) | https://presse.inserm.fr/en/discovery-stops-testing-remdesivir-against-covid-19-for-lack-of-evidence-of-its-efficacy/42034/ | https://redd.it/l70mno20:38
bourbonvarious states20:38
bourbonthat's like 90% reduction in required doses in my family alone20:39
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: ScrupulousScribe: /* mRNA vaccine effectiveness */: mRNA vaccine effectiveness ← Previous revision Revision as of 19:25, 28 January 2021 Line 164: Line 164: ==mRNA vaccine effectiveness== ==mRNA vaccine effectiveness== − A preliminary study by [[Pfizer|Pfizer, Inc.]] has indicated that there is, at [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z20:59
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +46550 cases (now 2.7 million), +515 deaths (now 57806) since 19 hours ago — France: +232 deaths (now 74619) since 23 hours ago21:16
de-factoLjL, sorry was on phone long time, thanks for the link that looks very interesting indeed, i will look into that21:24
de-factointeresting only 8µg mRNA in primates21:25
gigasu_shidahi de-facto 21:25
de-factoi wonder why their doses are that low in comparison to Moderna (100µg) and BioNTec (30µg)21:26
de-factogigasu_shida, hey :)21:26
LjLubLIX[m], de-facto: i've listened to the first part of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrTvpBUdmHI (Campbell) which references https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/characteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19inengland27january2021 and unfortunately i feel that the difference in symptoms points more to the symptoms that are 21:26
LjLcharacteristic of long COVID (fatigue), and is definitely compatible imo with the UK variant being more deadly :\21:26
gigasu_shidai used to say that this virus hit a real sweet spot in terms of deadliness, such that it's just not quite deadly enough that people take it seriously and therefore wind up spreading it more. but the worst is when you start with a variant that ppl don't take too seriously such that it anchors there psychology with a certain level of deadliness, but then mutates to become far more deadly whilst people maintain the belief that they're 21:31
gigasu_shidastill dealing with the same beast as in the beginning21:31
gigasu_shidatheir*21:31
raccoon_dogThat's even assuming they believe the pandemic, the virus, is real in the first place.21:32
raccoon_dogI just had ... an interaction with a family member that's pretty much turned my life around.21:32
de-factogigasu_shida, yeah that makes sense unfortunately21:34
whytekde-facto, thanks21:34
de-factotbh i never understood why everyone expects that the virus would mutate towards some variant that is a) more transmissible but at the same time b) less severe because why cant it be c) more severe? 21:35
de-factoit looks like that might be the case with the UK variant that it may be a little bit more severe21:35
de-factonot dramatically or such, but a little bit21:35
gigasu_shidawell that's just the thing raccoon_dog , that's part of the magic of this virus. it just isn't deadly enough to even get everyone to believe it exists21:36
gigasu_shidait's actually very impressive21:36
gigasu_shidait really hit the perfect sweet spot21:36
LjLde-facto, yeah there's no reason the virus would try to become less severe unless it helps it to spread better. but you can have a severe infection, with, for example, a long pre-symptomatic period where it's very infectious, then it just becomes very deadly. we have other viruses like this, even in dramatic ways, like HIV21:37
gigasu_shidaadd to that its long incubation period, and it's quite sinister21:37
de-factohttps://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/data-hint-b-1-1-7-could-be-more-deadly-than-thought-6838321:37
de-facto.title21:37
Brainstormde-facto: From www.the-scientist.com: Data Hint B.1.1.7 Could Be More Deadly Than Thought | The Scientist Magazine®21:37
gigasu_shidaremember that evolution happens as a random walk. it doesn't just monotonically go in the direction that aids the virus' survival21:38
gigasu_shidawhich is why it become randomly very sinister even if it's detrimental to the long term survival of the virus21:38
de-factoLjL, exactly if there is a correlation between infectiousness and severeness it would have to be in the early (infectious) period, not in the late (symptomatic) period where people already are isolated or even hospitalized and inventions are actively prevented21:39
gigasu_shidai don't know if that's true for viruses that are mostly asymptomatic de-facto 21:39
de-factoi think if most of the infections happen in the presymptomatic or even asymptomatic phase of the disease there is no correlation necessary between severeness and infectiousness 21:41
gigasu_shidaoh i see what you're saying now21:43
LjLviruses that are mostly asymptomatic are by definition not very severe/deadly gigasu_shida... unless you mean "asymptomatic most of the time, and then eventually symptomatic"21:44
LjLwhich is like HIV21:44
de-factobtw the B.1.1.7 variant seems to be cause more infections even when it also causes more symptoms (and fatality), hence assuming people would isolate warned by the symptoms the increased rate of infections must have happened before the onset of the symptoms appeared21:45
de-factoand that would be consistent with a more efficient viral replication on cellular level (e.g. due to advantages by those mutations)21:45
LjLright. viruses are severe/deadly mainly because if they want to reproduce a lot, they end up disrupting the host organism (us)21:46
gigasu_shidaoh so asymptomatic implies less malevolent21:46
LjLthen there has to be a balance between that, and killing people on the spot before it has a chance to spread21:46
LjLgigasu_shida, asymptomatic means you don't get symptoms, so if it *stays* asymptomatic all the time, it's basically not a disease.21:47
de-factothat more efficient replication would lead to a bigger viral population (hence more viral shedding) in the presymptomatic phase and therefore infect more susceptible people in the proximity of an unaware (presymptomatic) carrier21:47
gigasu_shidalol i see21:47
de-factoi think in the virology lectures of Vincent Racaniello (host of TWIV) he mentioned several viruses that infect almost everyone but noone gets symptoms from them, hence most people never even heard about them21:49
de-factobasically because they dont cause any disease we directly know about21:49
de-facto.title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3NhPgOoX4&list=PLGhmZX2NKiNldpyRUBBEzNoWL0Cso1jip <-- btw very very interesting virology lectures by Vincent Racaniello, highly recommended21:50
Brainstormde-facto: From www.youtube.com: Virology Lectures 2020 #1: What is a Virus? - YouTube21:50
BrainstormNew from NPR: Investigation: Cuomo Team Undercounted N.Y. COVID-19 Nursing Home Deaths: A report issued by Attorney General Letitia James concluded the New York State Department of Health numbers fell short by "as much as 50%." → https://is.gd/jmjpeC22:12
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: CUA 27: /* Summary */: Summary ← Previous revision Revision as of 21:18, 28 January 2021 Line 114: Line 114: |- |- |{{Flag|United Kingdom}} |{{Flag|United Kingdom}} − | October 2020 + | September 2020 |[[B.1.1.7]] |[[B.1.1.7]] |VOC-202012/01, 20B/501Y.V1 |VOC-202012/01, 20B/501Y.V1 |N501Y, 69–70del, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z22:24
Jigsy...22:44
LjLJigsy, what's the matteer?23:09
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Listen: J&J’s imminent vaccine data, CRISPR’s confusing boom, and navigating scientific misinformation: When are we getting more Covid-19 vaccine data? Is CRISPR having a dot-com moment? And how do separate disinformation from healthy dissent? Find out on the latest episode of "The… → https://is.gd/TAOSSz23:09
LjLde-facto, i think there's also some converging evidence lately (as in the past several years) that many very common viruses are the cause of various cancers, or at least, without those virusees around, those cancers don't happen. but the connection is far from obvious23:10
dzhoHPV is the one that comes to mind there23:11
LjLyeah, with that one the connection is pretty clear at this point23:13
LjLthere is a lot of speculation about EBV connecting it to virtually everything also23:13
LjLand given the way it stays around, i would wager that HSV isn't particularly innocuous aside from the obvious annoyances it creates23:14
JigsyLjL: It was that weird spam from Brainstorm.23:17
de-factoyeah it seems there is a whole spectrum of effects caused by viral infections, some are even advantageous for the infected host, i think Vincent Racaniello talks about one case of plant viruses (in a fungus infecting a plant) that enables that plant to survive in hot climate up to 50 °C or such23:17
LjLJigsy, yeah i'll probably remove the Wikipedia feed and move it to ##covid-ticker like i've done with other ones. it's just that at the present time that wikipedia article is good to keep an eye on23:18
de-factoviruses are a lot more than only diseases, they seem to be a whole universe of genetic diversity in the RNA world that was there even before first occurrence of DNA23:19
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +48 deaths (now 9308) since 19 hours ago — Netherlands: +3290 cases (now 969175), +72 deaths (now 13825) since 21 hours ago23:20
de-factoi bet they are a big impact on genetic evolution of DNA today also in terms of transmitting fragments of DNA from one host to another etc23:20
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: Yadsalohcin: Seq zero in S/A clades: Seq zero in S/A clades ← Previous revision Revision as of 22:18, 28 January 2021 Line 5: Line 5: [[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2]] (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes [[coronavirus disease 2019]] (COVID-19), has many [[Variant (biology)|variants]]; [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z23:22
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: Yadsalohcin: Merge refs; transmiss and lethality of B117 into body of text: Merge refs; transmiss and lethality of B117 into body of text ← Previous revision Revision as of 22:27, 28 January 2021 Line 103: Line 103: |first9=Andrew |last9=Rambaut |first9=Andrew |last9=Rambaut |first10=Jeff |last10=Barrett [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z23:34
LjLokay, i'll (re)move it23:34

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