libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-01-31

whytek	Does anbody know if this information is available elsewhere without the goddam google captcha?	00:10
whytek	https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm	00:10
DocScrutinizer05	>>Tehran expects to receive the first batch of Moscow's Sputnik V<< wait, didn't they tell the world to go get lost and they will do THEIR OWN IRANIAN ACME VACCINE?	00:11
LjL	whytek, i don't know of a page like that, except https://reopen.europa.eu/en/map/DEU/5006 but that's limited to the European Union	00:16
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, 20% enriched vaccine?	00:17
LjL	i knew of some places that track restrictions in each country, not specifically travel restrictions but in general, but even then, i've kind of lost track of which they were :(	00:18
DocScrutinizer05	whytek: try cookies _cloud=ddd711566676d816e617519e71fc8e55a1612048473 and PHPSESSID=khj2en6a9p1bednsmlu1qu262r	00:19
Brainstorm	New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add IATA travel page → https://is.gd/Lu3ACu	00:23
de-facto	imho it does not make sense that EU countries do their own travel restrictions yet have open borders in Schengen then, they should stop all traveling outside EU in order to let the borders open inside EU	00:27
de-facto	but i read it may already be too late, N501Y spreading fast and also some cases of E484K already (was it in Portugal too)	00:27
de-facto	they now thing about banning flights from Brazil, way too late :(	00:27
DocScrutinizer05	may enter: unmarried partners of Germans. They must have written signed invitation, copy of passport of german partner, aaaaand... (BOOM-TZZZ) they must be able to present proof of their relationsship --- THAT my friends IS GERMANY	00:30
Brainstorm	Updates for Sri Lanka: +848 cases (now 63293), +8 deaths (now 313) since a day ago	00:30
de-facto	so maybe they should let airtravel passengers sign that they assure and really really promise by heart that they dont import E484K or similar, problem solved :(((	00:32
de-facto	https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?c=gt-S_484	00:33
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto: it's a pathetic and embarrassing obvious fact that germany isn't capable to establish a proper testing and quarantine frontier management	00:34
de-facto	but hey maybe those that would sign such a confirmation despite importing E484K et al may be held responsible for paying the vaccine developers for their update? and the economic losses for further lockdowns?	00:35
de-facto	just give them the bill, there is no problem :(((	00:35
DocScrutinizer05	gosh,this negativism all the time... unless ultimately declaring "this is unacceptable!!" and demanding stuff that obviously can't get established or accomplished	00:36
de-facto	interestingly such strains start to spread around the big airports, such as London, so who knows it N501Y even originated in UK...	00:37
DocScrutinizer05	pretty likely not	00:39
de-facto	because this could also explain the unsteady jump for it in the graph of mutations over time, maybe it was just imported from who-knows-where	00:40
de-facto	adn then first time was sequenced in London because of their surveillance program	00:41
DocScrutinizer05	did new zealand ever lock frontiers? or did they always "just" enforce strict quarantine?	00:41
de-facto	i mean this Figure 2 in https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563	00:42
de-facto	(the first post about B.1.1.7)	00:42
DocScrutinizer05	well, it got sequenced in UK because one of three factors - a surplus one only used in UK - of their tests didn't register. So they had freak test results and thus started sequencing	00:43
de-facto	yeah the S-gene blackout, its pretty nice technique now because it immediately could distinguish variants with primers specifically designed for that mutation	00:44
LjL	right now they're still just using that particular test because of that fortuitous feature	00:44
de-facto	sequencing would take much longer than only to do a RT-PCR with a set of primers about the most common variants of concern	00:44
LjL	couldn't new tests be designed with the ability to do this on demand in mind?	00:44
de-facto	yes	00:45
DocScrutinizer05	the great sequencing coverage of UK being the reason they found B1.1.7 is just an urban legend	00:45
LjL	as in, the moment a new variant is identified, you start producing tests that identify that variant, and you make it much cheaper than sequencing	00:45
de-facto	LjL, i mean yes ofc for every known variant of concern on their radar they should be able to design a primer in such a way that it indicates a specific mutation	00:45
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, well they also do sequence much more, though. it may not be the reason but it's true	00:45
DocScrutinizer05	yes	00:45
DocScrutinizer05	but it's not exactly like UK was smart enough to do "the right thing" and we were not	00:46
LjL	i think sequencing a lot is the right thing :P	00:47
LjL	even if it's not what let them catch the variant, it's still a good thing to do	00:47
LjL	and we (almost) aren't doing it	00:47
DocScrutinizer05	yes, and that's why everybody starts doing it now, even UK	00:47
LjL	sometimes with the help of the UK	00:48
DocScrutinizer05	they readjust sequencing to haunt mutants	00:48
de-facto	.title https://covidcg.org/?tab=global_sequencing	00:48
Brainstorm	de-facto: From covidcg.org: COVID CG	00:48
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nipah virus in China with up to 75 pct fatality rate could be next pandemic: Report → https://is.gd/CyZKnW	00:48
LjL	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#New_Variant_Assessment_Platform	00:48
LjL	On 26 January 2021, the British government said it would share its genomic sequencing capabilities with other countries in order to increase the genomic sequencing rate and trace new variants.[65] As of January 2021, more than half of all genomic sequencing of COVID-19 was carried out in the UK.[66]	00:48
LjL	uhm i don't like this new paragraph https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#mRNA_vaccine_effectiveness it's based on a preprint and claiming "there is only minor, at most, reduction of effectiveness" seems like original research since serum neutralization may not correspond with real life effectiveness	00:50
LjL	the paper never uses the term "at most"	00:50
DocScrutinizer05	and my point still stands that testing >>> sequencing. We wouldn't change a lot from knowing how much of B1.1.7 or any other mutant was around	00:50
de-facto	we to be fair the new variant also is a great thing to put the blame onto for failed containment by the management	00:50
de-facto	LjL, yeah thats why i think the Manaus paper is so important, thats a real life situation there	00:52
de-facto	title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext	00:53
de-facto	.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext	00:53
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence - The Lancet	00:53
de-facto	"Published:January 27, 2021"	00:53
de-facto	well or its a comment, not a full blown paper	00:54
de-facto	what does that mean for peer review?	00:54
de-facto	i mean it listing the possible causes for the observation seems like the intend to start a important discussion about this right now	00:55
de-facto	btw I find it quite interesting, we talked about the possibility that new variants could cause the peak raising in all over Europe and i was sure they did not had a proper mutation radar back then, now we see how bad the surveillance really was (and still is) in many countries (with few exceptions) in terms of sequencing	00:59
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Paris protests over privacy law boil over amid anger at coronavirus restrictions → https://is.gd/7Nw7Gr	01:00
de-facto	we really do need sequencing, because we will see many more variants with (partial) immune evasion and if we have them on the radar early enough vaccine developers could integrate updates to a polyclonal version of their vaccines	01:01
de-facto	therefore its also important to understand the dynamics of the new variants spreading to be able to develop strategies to stay ahead of them	01:02
de-facto	without representative sequencing all this is not possible	01:03
de-facto	and if new variants spread all over the world in weeks rather than months it will be much more challenging to stay ahead of them in terms of "updated immunity" in the local population	01:04
DocScrutinizer05	I think there's no reason to assume the new variants had any other dynamics than the original one. They are just more efficient some of them	01:19
DocScrutinizer05	they will still spread on the same occasions, in the same places, and defeated by the same NPI	01:20
DocScrutinizer05	and even _if_ there were slight differences, it's not like we knew faintly enough about the original virus to be able to notice any such differences	01:23
DocScrutinizer05	of course vaccine manufs shall already start producing a next version colloquially dubbed "booster shot"	01:26
DocScrutinizer05	anyway >>For my money, if symptomatic infection doesn’t lead to severe disease, we’re home free, new variants or no<< from a comment in one of Lowe's blogs	01:27
DocScrutinizer05	for now all that really counts it getting into spring without running into a mega disaster. For that we need to bring down incidences to <<50/100k7d, and we have to do this by "simply" applying and complying with the well known basic measures. No vaccine will help us, no closed frontiers will be a replacement for this	01:33
de-facto	well yeah the transmission paths will remain the same more or less, but if its a new variant it has some new properties or increased abilities, its spread dynamics also will change, e.g. it being more contagious, causing more severe disease, different spectrum of symptoms, evade some tests, evade immunity etc	01:33
de-facto	maybe also concentrate on different organs at some point	01:34
DocScrutinizer05	get the incidences down and you'll hardly see many mutations	01:35
DocScrutinizer05	simple as that	01:35
de-facto	yes full ack	01:35
de-facto	its the only way to prevent new variants	01:36
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19 reduces fertility in men, study suggests → https://is.gd/U0jxjO	01:37
de-facto	the problem is that incidence would have to be forced down globally and synchronously, otherwise traveling will spread newly breads all around as we observe for over one year now	01:39
de-facto	and if they are immune escape variants even vaccination will only partly protect us from those, the better their ability to evade immunity the sooner it may spread again even in a population that was immunized for a previous variant	01:41
DocScrutinizer05	>>traveling will spread newly breads all around<< not when strict quarantine and tests get enforced	01:43
de-facto	tests cant catch all of the imports	01:44
DocScrutinizer05	huh? why not?	01:44
DocScrutinizer05	quarantine, one test at day4 and one at day10	01:44
de-facto	because there are false negatives	01:44
de-facto	only one evasion is enough to import a new variant	01:45
de-facto	i mean one false negative	01:45
de-facto	and that is not too uncommon et all	01:45
DocScrutinizer05	no, you need TWO false negative PCR with this scheme	01:45
de-facto	no problem with normal variants if prevalence is still high, but with new variants the perspective is like the very first import case	01:45
de-facto	yeah does not really matter for that	01:45
de-facto	its just not secure enough	01:46
DocScrutinizer05	plus an asymptomatic case	01:46
DocScrutinizer05	no doubt forbidding travel is more safe... NOT	01:46
de-facto	yes of course its more safe	01:47
DocScrutinizer05	when you forbid travel, you get a thousand times more illegal tzravelers than you may find double false negative plus asymptomatic case	01:48
de-facto	right now in Germany they have a slowly (delayed) updated list of high risk origins and require a test before traveling, well that can still be negative for a fresh infection of course	01:48
de-facto	and leaving people out of quarantine at day 5 with a simple antigen test is INSANE imho	01:48
DocScrutinizer05	I'm not even mentioning this	01:48
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nearly 50 million COVID-19 vaccine doses distributed in U.S., almost 30 million administered - CDC → https://is.gd/FUPCxE	01:49
DocScrutinizer05	when you want to go tangential once I made a point, well...	01:49
de-facto	having a whole country potential lockdown at risk from a single swab taken from a throat is just not proportional	01:49
DocScrutinizer05	I'm out	01:50
de-facto	I 100% stay with this, passenger air travel should stop completely.	01:50
DocScrutinizer05	you don't need me to do monologues. I said TWO tests in quarantine	01:51
de-facto	two tests are not nearly safe enough, not at all	01:51
Brainstorm	Updates for Lebanon: +351 deaths (now 3031) since 5 hours ago — Netherlands: +4307 cases (now 979460), +71 deaths (now 13970) since 22 hours ago	01:51
de-facto	there are cases that become positive again after two negative tests	01:51
de-facto	there are cases that test positive for more than 14 days	01:52
de-facto	there are always exceptions to the rule	01:52
DocScrutinizer05	[31 Jan 2021 00:36:47] <DocScrutinizer05> gosh,this negativism all the time... unless ultimately declaring "this is unacceptable!!" and demanding stuff that obviously can't get established or accomplished	01:52
de-facto	it does not matter for the normal variants because then some sort of compromise can be made when incidence is high anyhow	01:52
LjL	strict quarantine is not enough either because it can be broken in a variety of ways, and if you have people doing surveillance on the quarantined people in hotels or something, those people can get infected, like in New Zealand	01:52
LjL	everything is about probabilities in this, you can't make it into a black or white situation	01:52
de-facto	but not with import of new variants, then its like a "virgin" country with immunological naive population (well in the very worst thinkable case of total immune evasion, thankfully we have NOT seen that yet)	01:53
LjL	i think DocScrutinizer05's point that when you shut down all legal ways to travel, then there will be more illegal ways employed, without any testing or any quarantine at all then, is a valid point. risks and balances, and always being mindful of what the unintended consequences of an action can be	01:55
de-facto	imho the only way is 1) restrict mobility of new emerging variants very very strictly (hence no traveling) 2) bring incidence down globally at the same time by NPIs while collecting sequences all over the world and ramping up vaccine production 3) vaccinate everyone with a polyclonal vaccine that integrated all the newest variants with the maximum possible vaccination rate synchronously	01:55
LjL	you've been saying these things for days. we can parly agree, wholly agree, partly disagree... but we aren't the ones making these decisions anyway. doesn't mean you shouldn't say these things of course, but honestly you've been a bit on a loop lately :(	01:56
de-facto	LjL, yes its a valid point that traveling might go underground if no legal way is there anymore, but with airplane passenger travel this can be controlled to quite some big extend	01:56
LjL	yes, with air travel it's mostly controllable	01:57
LjL	i can agree with you that flights should be stopped for now (i don't really agree with "forever", but let's save that for another day)	01:58
de-facto	honestly my suspicion is that much of the spread of the new variants happened on Christmas, many did fly from overseas to their parents home to spend holidays with them	02:00
de-facto	(i know several such cases in my social bubble, yet none of them were tested positive, still they thought their traveling for Christmas could not be postponed to next year or such)	02:01
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China gene firm providing worldwide COVID tests worked with Chinese military → https://is.gd/EfEaVz	02:01
dzho	it might just be apophenia but it sure looks to me like we have peaks after halloween, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas	02:01
de-facto	its also how they suspect that the new variants arrived in Portugal	02:02
DocScrutinizer05	no, evidently much of the spread is from people who came from UK and they would simply have taken the train if you stop flights. Or they fly from london to Hungary and then drive by train from there to Germany	02:02
de-facto	they had a very strict and successful lockdown before, brought incidence down and then opened again prior to Christmas, now they have all the lovely new variants circulating	02:02
de-facto	(Portugal)	02:03
de-facto	yeah thats why i think there need to be agreement on synchronized travel bans in all free travel zones such as EU and external borders need to be closed	02:04
de-facto	of course it does not make sense to ban airtravel in Germany if passengers could just land in a neighboring country and take the train from there	02:05
de-facto	if there will be no synchronized strategy we will see closed borders in EU again	02:06
LjL	the variant arose in the UK which just semi-fortuitously happens to be outside of Schengen. what if you have a variant in a Schengen country? it's not like Schengen is a magic bubble where viruses don't mutate	02:06
de-facto	good point, Schengen might be just too big for a free travel zone indeed	02:06
LjL	but then if you reduce it further, the issue that illegal travel will happen via land borders arises again, you can forget about air travel bans being effective on their own	02:08
LjL	and we functionally have no border posts at many Schengen borders (and i would have hoped we'd never get them again)	02:08
de-facto	as long as incidence is high and viral replication can now potentially take place under selective immune pressure new variants will occur, so in every such free travel zone incidence would have to be brought down synchronously	02:08
DocScrutinizer05	"haette haette fahradkette" as some german politician says. You won't establish worldwide, not even EU wide synchroniized measures of _any_ kind. If one thing became obvious during last 12 months then this	02:10
de-facto	thats why i think incidence should be brought down by NPIs not by vaccinations, because NPIs unspecifically target transmission paths that are the same even if spread dynamics changed due to new properties	02:11
de-facto	i think it is possible to successfully fight SARS-CoV-2, if we dont even try we will stay in this state forever	02:12
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, well on the other hand something has to change. we can't stay in this state until 2030 or whenever it is that the vaccination is projected to be completed at this pace	02:14
LjL	we can't because the virus will definitely mutate many times, and we can't because you can't keep everyone "NPI"'d for years without everyone going insane	02:14
de-facto	and if we allow holiday airtraveling it means that we dont really try to do all we could think of in terms of fighting COVID	02:14
DocScrutinizer05	I'd be happy to stay in exactly this state which is: incindeces go down 25% per week. Wait no, I'd insist in spring coming in three months the latest	02:15
de-facto	yes wrestling it down via NPIs, but some federal states in Germany already stay at R~1 again, so for what reason? (afaik the over all national R decline is due to the very high incidence states like Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringa etc)	02:17
de-facto	it very well could be that it will get much more difficult now with the N501Y already imported multiple times	02:17
DocScrutinizer05	so what's changing is seasons and number of incidences. I hope for both moving faster but if it keeps moving at exactly this speed it will all be fine unless we catch one of those damn VOC	02:17
LjL	we've already "caught" the VOCs	02:18
LjL	they simply aren't all that prevalent yet	02:18
de-facto	and that is not the worst possible variant on the horizon, i really hope we wont see soon a E484K all over the country,	02:18
LjL	(except in Portugal and possibly other places)	02:18
LjL	can you really believe that they won't spread when they are already all over our countries, even if in smaller numbers?	02:18
LjL	we can delay it, maybe	02:19
de-facto	well maybe now would be better than in two months because it would mean that vaccines could be adjusted to include E484K then	02:19
DocScrutinizer05	I simply am fed up with "waaah we must stop flights forever!! nevermind the van drivers bringing vax and voc from UK, they don't fly"	02:20
de-facto	and tbh i am not so optimistic about E484K if it already appears on nextstrain it must have spread for quite some while from the initial imports	02:20
de-facto	well then the van drivers should change on the border and their working place decontaminated	02:21
de-facto	whatever is necessary to contain he spread	02:21
LjL	DocScrutinizer05, yes i understand that you are. that's why i told de-facto that he's going a bit in a loop lately. he may be right, he may be wrong, but we don't make these policies anyway so just hearing this all the time doesn't help. but i'm sure you understand it's frustrating to feel like you know how to improve the situation but you can't actually make someone who matters listen to it	02:21
de-facto	those are all details, the only thing that matters is to restrict the mobility of the variants	02:21
DocScrutinizer05	bring down incidences, establish proper quarantine (enforced, with tests), and hope for spring. When we bring down incidences fast enough, we got chances to not only spot and contain but even sequence every single cluster	02:22
de-facto	yes	02:22
LjL	i'm afraid that when incidence goes down, governments (at least mine, assuming i still have one) will go "oh, it's gone! yay! let's do nothing now for a while" again, like last summer :\	02:23
de-facto	and also restrict mobility as much as possible (at least for long traveling distances)	02:23
LjL	and incidentally no, we still have no clear government ahead	02:23
de-facto	yes they are making already the people looking forward when talking about "reopening and back to normal" for reaching their incidence goal of weekly 50/100k	02:24
de-facto	then in the very best case it will stabilize at that level, just breading new variants a bit slower	02:24
de-facto	hence imho our goal needs to be zero cases (yes i know it sounds very hard, but it is the only sane goal)	02:25
de-facto	those countries that stayed with that goal right from begin are the only ones with success	02:26
de-facto	the good thing is that it gets easier and easier to bring down incidence once new infections become rarer	02:28
de-facto	because then much more resources can be invested into tracing down clusters and doing super strict localized containment etc	02:29
ubLIX[m]	i really wanted that to be the way, de-facto	02:31
ubLIX[m]	but.. planet earth.. disparate nations, populations..	02:32
DocScrutinizer05	now on that last posts since my last post I can agree completely, alas all of them. LjL not only your government	02:32
ubLIX[m]	not forbidden by the laws of physics doesn't imply not forbidden by the laws of human behaviour	02:33
de-facto	ubLIX[m], yes i cant say i disagree, yet i still think we need to think about the best way to fight it down and do so with a globally synchronized strategy	02:36
de-facto	its not like its hopeless or such, many countries demonstrated they have found their way to stay ontop of it	02:37
DocScrutinizer05	like we contained nukes and ended all wars?	02:37
ubLIX[m]	between us and global synchronisation lies a speciation event	02:37
DocScrutinizer05	oh wait, we already did such global coordinated effort: global warming	02:38
ubLIX[m]	ever evolving vaccine tech getting us to the point that the illness is mild or therapeutically manageable seem like the probable path to me right now	02:39
de-facto	but it would have to be with global synchronized strategic sharing of resources such as medications, personal protection equipment and vaccinations of course	02:39
de-facto	we need massive increase in vaccine production rates and share them with everyone for free (at least with the ones that cant afford to pay for it)	02:41
de-facto	how else could we ever hope for synchronized vaccinations for the current VOCs in countries where people struggle to pay for their food or such	02:41
DocScrutinizer05	[28 Jan 2021 12:48:22] <DocScrutinizer05> what I didn't hear at all yet: how many of the 2nd infections actually develop severe and possibly lethal symptoms. Maybe we must live with covid returning each year like flu, but when you're either vaccinated or suffered a covid episode already, you're maybe not very prone to severe harm	02:43
de-facto	i have a bit of a bad feeling about us fighting about who gets the first shots when of an already rolling vaccination campaign when there are countries that did not see any vaccination imports	02:43
ubLIX[m]	the anarchic or somewhat civilised market of resource distribution is a far cry more realistic than globally synchronised lock down and dovetailing of multilayered NPI	02:44
de-facto	DocScrutinizer05, obviously in Manaus the hospitals are overfull again, so its not like most of them would be mild or such, they ran out of oxygen and probably dont give that to people that would not require it	02:44
de-facto	some even claim the VOC make more severe infections (reinfections?), but i guess we need more data on that	02:44
DocScrutinizer05	it's not like in Manaus everybody been vaccinated	02:44
de-facto	no but the majority may have even had recovered from a real infection, hence their immune system should know the virus even better than from vaccination	02:45
DocScrutinizer05	no, vaccination is evidently and proven-fact way more effective than infection	02:46
de-facto	yes vaccination may induce higher antibody levels and maybe also targeted only on the S-protein, that may be an advantage in some circumstances	02:46
de-facto	but if they see reduced efficiency for vaccinations e.g. to 60% in SA from normally 90% or such it is concerning (was it Novavax data or such?)	02:47
de-facto	yeah https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3	02:49
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK says it expects no vaccine interruption from EU; Brussels admits Irish 'blunder' → https://is.gd/vKAkK4	02:50
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO investigators meet Wuhan hospital leaders on day two of Covid-19 mission – but afternoon will be spent ‘visiting museums’ → https://is.gd/j7QSLn	03:01
LjL	"day two"	03:10
LjL	is this even real	03:10
LjL	de-facto, yeah too bad we haven't actually bought any Novavax	03:10
Brainstorm	New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: More details (good ones) on the J&J vaccine: → https://is.gd/E7sHgY	03:14
de-facto	all fatalities in the placebo group	03:24
LjL	yeah, although the vaccine group had some "severe" cases, but which apparently did not require hospitalizations	03:25
LjL	comments sound perplexed on that - those "severe" cases are defined as oxygen going below a threshold, and it's strange those people weren't hospitalized	03:26
LjL	anyway i guess it's good news	03:26
LjL	a bit paradoxically, when a vaccine doesn't have a great efficacy rate (so, say 60% instead of 95%) you can get more reliable data on severe cases among the vaccinated	03:26
LjL	if only 5 people in the verum group got COVID, you really cannot say anything reliable on severe cases	03:26
LjL	but if 50 people did, then you can	03:26
de-facto	its always somewhere between perfect and useless, so as long as its leaning towards helping we need to find a way to make use of it, and imho most of the vaccines we have seen so far looked extremely good	03:27
LjL	i disagree with "extremely good", but i see your point	03:28
LjL	and considering the slow pace at which they're being produced, yeah, i don't feel great saying it, but the more the merrier, even if they aren't super-effective	03:28
LjL	but there could be a bad psychological effect too: people who get the vaccine will, to some extent, behave as if they're immune. even if you tell them not to.	03:29
LjL	if a vaccine has 95% efficacy rate, it's not a big deal. they pretty much can do that and it will be okay	03:29
de-facto	what was the avg efficiency of the flu vaccine? like 40%-60% or such	03:29
LjL	if it has 60% efficacy rate, not so much	03:29
LjL	who cares about the flu vaccine, this is not the flu, it has different characteristics and very different risks	03:30
de-facto	yes indeed	03:30
de-facto	just saying the results we have seen are not so bad at all	03:30
LjL	fair enough	03:30
LjL	i just think... when we have a 95% efficacy... shouldn't we find ways to concentrate productions of that vaccine? instead of messing around with ones that are 60%?	03:31
LjL	just because every country's big pharma company wants to show off, is not a good reason to use vaccines that are "good" but "not as good"	03:32
de-facto	yeah well i cant disagree but we also need to have multiple vectors against it and also multiple delivery platforms etc	03:33
de-facto	multiple templates and so on	03:33
de-facto	diversity against diversity so to say	03:33
de-facto	and also have some solution that fits every scenario even when its just "trival" problems such as delivery and supply chain	03:34
de-facto	i think its essential to make the best out of everything we have	03:34
de-facto	we just cant afford to abandon any approach since they are not mutually exclusive	03:34
LjL	no, but like, Sanofi saying they will help produce Pfizer - we can debate about why it takes until August, but i want to see more of that sort of cooperation	03:36
de-facto	yes i fully agree	03:38
de-facto	also other branches of industry should be investigated if they could help	03:38
de-facto	for example the chemical industry, how far can they go into biochemical production etc	03:38
de-facto	some of them already partnered with some vaccine producers that are still in the process of studies and approval	03:39
dTal	LjL, Pfizer is logistically difficult to distribute, it's not just about production	03:50
dTal	and also there's tremendous value in not putting all your eggs in a single basket, as it were	03:50
Brainstorm	New from NPR: EU Reverses Move To Restrict Export Of COVID-19 Vaccines To Northern Ireland: The EU backtracked after a move to restrict the movement of vaccines between Ireland and Northern Ireland drew condemnation. → https://is.gd/CDd7j9	03:51
dTal	especially on the basis of trial data which certainly doesn't tell the wohle story in real-world conditions	03:51
dTal	and also when the vaccines are all brand new and may yet present unforeseen problems	03:51
dTal	for example I've recently read that the Pfizer vaccine occasionally provokes an allergic reaction	03:52
de-facto	yeah maybe people develop antibodies against PEG in the BioNTech/Pfizer or Moderna vaccines just as they develop immunity against the viral delivery vector in the ones from AstraZeneca, Janssen, Sputnik, you name it...	03:57
de-facto	i think its very important to have diversity	03:58
LjL	dTal, the allergic reaction is very occasional (Moderna causes it too, but even less often), we're talking less than 10 anaphylaxis episodes every million vaccines, which was confirmed in Israel. Israel also confirmed an efficacy of around 92% (which is within Pfizer's confidence interval)	04:00
LjL	that said, i find it inexcusable that severely allergic people were excluded from the trials, and yet, countries vaccinated them anyway	04:01
de-facto	afaik the adverse reactions increased with the booster shot	04:02
de-facto	in the mRNA vaccines	04:02
LjL	so it seems	04:03
LjL	although i bet anaphylaxis happened right away, when it did happen	04:03
de-facto	yeah i am talking about generic effects from using a vaccine platform	04:04
de-facto	if multiple platforms are available the choice for a different one each time may mitigate those	04:04
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Lessons in antiviral immunity (81 votes) \| https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6528/464.full \| https://redd.it/l8v4ca	04:06
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: 17β‐estradiol reduces SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in vitro (89 votes) \| https://physoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.14814/phy2.14707 \| https://redd.it/l8ym4g	05:25
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid: EU and UK 'reset' relations after NI vaccine row: Ministers said they are confident that the EU will not block vaccines entering the UK. → https://is.gd/SE5k5u	05:28
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Macron defends decision not to order third lockdown as third wave spreads → https://is.gd/LL9PMV	05:52
de-facto	btw about those very rare anaphylactic reactions, they seem to be IgG mediated (not lgE like a real allergy), so their correlation is not necessarily and btw if vaccination is done in a medical center they can be treated immediately, i think they did everything perfectly correct	06:14
de-facto	afaik one of the suspected mechanisms is that those that react that way may have developed antibodies (IgG) against some of those lipid components, first suspect would be PEG (that is in many cosmetics for exterior use, but maybe some got internal contact with it for some reason hence developed antibodies against it)	06:16
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: After 10 months with zero community transmission, a quarantine hotel worker tests positive for COVID in Western Australia → https://is.gd/YWOJzD	06:16
de-facto	at least that was the stand of the information last time i checked (admittedly quite some time ago)	06:16
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +2717 cases (now 707837), +48 deaths (now 21066) since a day ago	06:24
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: WHO teams visits Wuhan food market in search of virus clues → https://is.gd/3J899U	06:40
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Study By Dr. Steven Quay Concludes that SARS-CoV-2 Came from a Laboratory → https://is.gd/1tVt71	07:05
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Iran says its COVID-19 vaccine effective against UK virus variant → https://is.gd/gYrMxx	07:29
Brainstorm	Updates for Lima, Peru: +9239 cases (now 507596), +213 deaths (now 17927) since 2 days ago — Junin, Peru: +1085 cases (now 34917), +34 deaths (now 1145) since 2 days ago — Callao, Peru: +910 cases (now 48365), +33 deaths (now 2141) since 2 days ago — Pasco, Peru: +197 cases (now 7786), +5 deaths (now 185) since 2 days ago	07:51
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Parts of WA including Perth go into snap lockdown after quarantine hotel security guard infected → https://is.gd/Ol9nxW	08:18
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Faced With a Vaccine Emergency, the EU Made an Enemy of Everyone → https://is.gd/cj8zDL	08:55
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread \| January 31, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/m1EB0o	09:07
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Just 0.04% of Israelis caught COVID-19 after two shots of Pfizer vaccine → https://is.gd/Zsg5Wl	09:55
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bolsonaro says his government has no responsibility to provide oxygen to states where people are dying from Covid due to lack of oxygen. → https://is.gd/u4AIuQ	10:32
Brainstorm	Updates for El Salvador: +977 cases (now 54966), +9 deaths (now 1623) since 22 hours ago	10:38
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): I'm fed up.: I'm fed up of nothing being open and being restricted to local area. I'm fed up of a simple trip to the shops being emotionally exhausting. I'm fed up of not seeing people at work. I'm fed up about not seeing family. → https://is.gd/bbCb7U	11:22
g2`	I posted here over a week ago	11:50
g2`	Thursday I think	11:50
g2`	My sense of smell has returned :)	11:50
genera	yay	11:50
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel to give 5,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine to the Palestinians to immunize front-line medical workers → https://is.gd/dp13gZ	11:59
Arsanerit	so generous	12:09
DocScrutinizer05	https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/l951yr/after_10_months_with_zero_community_transmission/glgq4c2/	12:35
darsie	Are 5000 doses 5000 or 2500 immunizations?	12:55
DocScrutinizer05	the latter I guess	12:56
darsie	Are the first and second dose the same?	12:56
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Australia records 14 consecutive days of 0 locally acquired coronavirus cases for the first time since February 2020 (10139 votes) \| https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-31/coronavirus-australia-live-news-covid-sa-border-open-with-sydney/13106264#live-blog-post-1197762000 \| https://redd.it/l93jc4	12:57
Brainstorm	New from Ars Technica: Policy: Why kids matter in the quest to stamp out COVID-19 → https://is.gd/cglOQg	13:00
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Single virus case sends Australia's Perth into snap lockdown: The Australian city of Perth will begin a snap five-day lockdown after a security guard at a quarantine hotel tested positive for COVID-19, authorities announced Sunday. → https://is.gd/XLcrvC	13:12
DocScrutinizer05	For Americans it seems like freedom is kinda that thing where you say "I'm going to swing my arms like this and if you get hit it's your own fault". https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/l951yr/after_10_months_with_zero_community_transmission/glgq4c2/	13:23
DocScrutinizer05	^^^ quote	13:24
DocScrutinizer05	darsie: yes, for BNT it's 30/30 iirc	13:25
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +9 deaths (now 9378) since 19 hours ago	15:23
zutt	%cases sweden	15:46
Brainstorm	zutt: In Sweden, there have been 566957 confirmed cases (5.5% of the population) and 11591 deaths (2.0% of cases) as of 2 days ago. 5.1 million tests were performed (11.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data.	15:46
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +10405 cases (now 2.2 million) since 22 hours ago	15:54
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazilian government 'deliberately allowed Covid to spread' → https://is.gd/T91CLp	15:57
rpifan_	welcome to trump landia	16:14
rpifan_	wow we are still getting 10k cases per day?	16:14
de-facto[m]	Yes containment barely achieves R = 0.9X in many federal states not even that, imho its not sufficient	16:25
de-facto[m]	For Germany	16:26
de-facto[m]	Half life t = t_serial ln(1/2) / ln(R) = 5.2 ln(0.5) / ln(0.9) = 34.2 days	16:34
Brainstorm	New from Baric Lab: @Baric_Lab: Big ups to this crew for a great collaboration with translation to #COVID19. We need better #therapeutics for #SARSCoV2 → https://is.gd/nDN0vq	16:35
de-facto[m]	So over a month to achieve half the daily new infections in Germany	16:35
DocScrutinizer05	the numbers don't support that? 2021/01/127davg:20019 -> 2021/01/29 7davg:10795	16:42
DocScrutinizer05	so we're at a ~R_eff(4d)~=0.9	16:43
Brainstorm	Updates for Guernsey: +46 cases (now 539) since 20 hours ago	16:44
DocScrutinizer05	an yes, sorry. Those were yesterday's numbers, still not very stable for last 4 days and particularly 29th. Still the curve fits	16:49
DocScrutinizer05	see [29 Jan 2021 14:58:36] <DocScrutinizer05> /nick nostradamus; /msg Germany will hit 50/100k7d in 3 weeks. Around that time shit will hit the fan regarding reverting of NPI like curfew and home office and SCHOOLS. If Germany acts like usual, this won't have effect until 2 more weeks later and in 6 weeks (with one week inertia) the incidences will reach 25/100k7d. UNLESS - most likely - the VOC beast eats us until then	16:50
DocScrutinizer05	we had a massive excursion of R_eff(now/-4d) from 01-06 until 01-12 which sipposedly was recovery from reporting flaws during holidays, since then we're pretty much nailed down to R_eff=~0.9	17:02
DocScrutinizer05	for serial length 4d	17:02
DocScrutinizer05	http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm	17:03
rpifan	de-facto[m], you think we are gonna go on lockdown into summer?	17:03
DocScrutinizer05	blue line = avg7d of incidences (left Y), green = R_eff serial4 based on avg7d	17:04
DocScrutinizer05	(right Y scale)	17:05
DocScrutinizer05	damn sure I had hoped we see at least some effect on R_eff from latest "tightening" of NPI, since even a halftimeof 3 weeks is still way too long and a 4d-based R_eff=0.9 much too high to defeat the B1.1.7 monster. We need an R_eff<0.7 for this	17:15
DocScrutinizer05	and R_eff doesn't change :-( So THAT is our basic immediate problem - our R_eff is too high to defeat VOC and it seems it's not coming down any time soon	17:17
DocScrutinizer05	I hope R_eff in total will go down a lot once we're at 25/100k7d so the authorities can track&contain&sequence every single cluster again	17:18
DocScrutinizer05	and that we're not eaten by the monster before we get there	17:19
DocScrutinizer05	so instead of focusing on fubar air travel I rather focus on fubar home office and supermarkets and schools, since those are the dials we may turn (but seems we don't) to bring down R_eff now and massively	17:22
Brainstorm	New from NPR: 10 Senate Republicans Plan To Detail Slimmed-Down COVID-19 Counteroffer: The senators are asking to work with President Biden on a coronavirus relief package they believe could be approved "quickly by Congress with bipartisan support." → https://is.gd/SDgKUX	17:25
de-facto	1st Jan 18k cases -> 29th Jan ~11k, hence 11k/18k = 0.61 hence R = 0,61^(5,2÷29) = 0.92 hence exactly what i said above	17:26
de-facto	i take a serial interval of t_serial = 5.2 days	17:27
DocScrutinizer05	1st jan is bogus and you know that	17:27
DocScrutinizer05	and you know in Germany everybody is doing serial interval = 4d according to RKI	17:28
de-facto	take any other interval its the same	17:28
DocScrutinizer05	sigh just look at my cited dates above. can you do the math?	17:28
de-facto	i do my math	17:29
DocScrutinizer05	look at http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm if in doubt	17:29
de-facto	i dont have any doubts about what i said, i stay with every claim	17:29
DocScrutinizer05	well your math just doesn't fit the official numbers	17:29
de-facto	it fits them exactly	17:30
DocScrutinizer05	aha	17:30
de-facto	https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Jan_2021/2021-01-31-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile	17:32
DocScrutinizer05	so what? you still take 4.2 instead the 4 they use	17:33
DocScrutinizer05	just to start with	17:33
DocScrutinizer05	5.2 even	17:33
de-facto	yes because its more correct	17:35
de-facto	https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/Nowcasting.html	17:35
DocScrutinizer05	sigh	17:35
DocScrutinizer05	>>they are reporting they earn 400€ a week, but I take that as 400€/month as that's the more common way to report income here<<	17:36
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands protest in Vienna as far-right march on COVID measures banned → https://is.gd/GMMQXJ	17:38
Brainstorm	Updates for United Kingdom: +21088 cases (now 3.8 million), +587 deaths (now 106158) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3861 cases (now 981767), +56 deaths (now 14022) since 19 hours ago	17:46
de-facto	http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/	17:54
de-facto	shows R based in 5.2 days serial time worldwide	17:55
de-facto	btw damn whats going in the Thailand/Vietnam region there	17:55
de-facto	i thought they had it under control for so long	17:55
DocScrutinizer05	again: based on RKI official numbers, 7d average on 2021/01/12 was 20019 (yesterday's numbers), a 17 days later on 2021/01/ it was 10795 (again yesterdays numbers). Taking into account numbers for last 4 days will increase a little (today it's 11413 not 10795) we can safely assume a half time of 3 weeks. And that's same result for any interval within 01-12 till now	17:57
DocScrutinizer05	both based on avg7d as well as foldedphase	17:58
DocScrutinizer05	as well as TV reported "daily new reported, compared to last week's value" which is constantly around -20% per week	17:59
de-facto	i think we can agree that its way too long half life, if we multiply R by 130%-150% we would be in exponential growth	18:00
DocScrutinizer05	yourmath won't turn taht into 34 days	18:00
de-facto	(to take into account the B.1.1.7 spread)	18:00
DocScrutinizer05	yes, absolutely	18:01
DocScrutinizer05	it will explode right into our face as soon as B1.1.7 takes pace	18:01
DocScrutinizer05	we need an R_eff (my interpretation of it) of <0.7 and any imported variant will naturally extinguish	18:02
DocScrutinizer05	in your metrics that would be 0.7^(4/5.2) if my math doesn't fail on me temporarily	18:04
de-facto[m]	So lockdown us insufficient to contain the spread of newly imported variants right now	18:04
DocScrutinizer05	meh, 5.2/4	18:05
Brainstorm	Updates for Italy: +11249 cases (now 2.6 million), +237 deaths (now 88516) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4387 cases (now 777897), +128 deaths (now 19978) since 23 hours ago	18:05
DocScrutinizer05	>>lockdown us insufficient to contain the spread of newly<< yes, absolutely	18:05
de-facto[m]	The ones in contry will exponentially reproduce right now	18:05
DocScrutinizer05	yes	18:06
DocScrutinizer05	and we already _do_ have them, definitely	18:06
de-facto[m]	more efficiently one can not teplace the old variant dying out exponentially while the new variant increases expinentially	18:07
DocScrutinizer05	and note please how finding them won't change a jota in the situation	18:07
LjL	And here we're relaxing the lockdown, yay! Thanks to our mathematical model that no one understand and that shouldn't really matter anyway when you have known new factors such as the variants, which the model doesn't consider	18:08
DocScrutinizer05	me?	18:08
DocScrutinizer05	oh, "our" nor "your"	18:08
LjL	Yes	18:09
DocScrutinizer05	de-facto[m]: yes, exactly	18:10
DocScrutinizer05	closing frontiers and flights does help a little to not seed more of them, but we already have them and they are already about to grow exponentially	18:11
DocScrutinizer05	we just didn't see them yet. So we are all like "wjere is the cat? search Fido SEARCH! where is the nasty cat?!" while not even pondering how that knowledge would leave us any wiser	18:12
DocScrutinizer05	and meanwhile lockdown lingers on in week ForgotTocount with an R_eff of 0.9 to 1 and everybody arguing about tangential or even sabotage topics, while we URGENTLY NEED R_eff <<0.7	18:17
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Spain set to pilot four-day week as response to coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/0kp8RY	18:17
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel Health Ministry: "More people died in two weeks of peace with Dubai than in 70 years of war with them", referring to dozens of covid cases onboard flights returning from Dubai to Tel Aviv → https://is.gd/dW47Qx	18:29
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein in the Urine of COVID-19 patients (82 votes) \| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250637v1 \| https://redd.it/l9edhi	18:29
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Macron gambles by saying 'non' to lockdown: French President Emmanuel Macron has gambled by not imposing a third national lockdown to contain COVID-19—against expectations and the advice of senior scientific advisers. → https://is.gd/ocfZku	18:42
Brainstorm	Updates for Sri Lanka: +864 cases (now 64157) since 18 hours ago	18:48
de-facto	well yeah the UK variant definitely is already spread all over EU, yet i am sure we will see many more variants emerging (and if they do emerge they have some property for which we definitely dont want to have them), so the import of those should be prevented by restricting international travel	18:51
DocScrutinizer05	if we assume we got a "humble" 10 of B.1.1.7(undetected) cases toady, then in 3 weeks when we're supposed to hit 5000/d we get a 10/d new B.1.1.7. In 6 weeks when we're supposed to reach 2500/d we get 40/d of the new variant. (not as bad as I thought, and disclaimer again "if my math doesn't fail on me"). In 9 weeks - if nothing changes - we're at 1300/d with a 130/d VOC	18:52
de-facto	https://covariants.org/per-country	18:52
de-facto	.title	18:52
Brainstorm	de-facto: From covariants.org: CoVariants	18:52
de-facto	beware those are number of sequences, not cases	18:53
DocScrutinizer05	now assume we got 100 today, numbers change accordingly	18:54
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Captain Sir Tom Moore in hospital with Covid 19 → https://is.gd/P6RHXK	18:54
DocScrutinizer05	we'd be at 2500 in 9 weeks, with half of them being the monster	18:55
rpifan	apparently portugal is fucked	19:04
DocScrutinizer05	and I think this shows a) we of course want to keep VOC out b) we need R_eff <0.7 now c) to fight VOC by vaccination is a delusion	19:06
DocScrutinizer05	I'm particularly pissed about c) and how politicians constantly claim the opposite	19:07
DocScrutinizer05	so everybody goes "we need more vaccine drug, NOW!"	19:08
rahmend[m]	what's voc?	19:09
rahmend[m]	this, Variant of Concern 202012/01?	19:09
DocScrutinizer05	absolute self-deceit, no matter what of all faintly possible futures arrives regarding vaccination, it simply won't help us out during next 3 months	19:09
DocScrutinizer05	yes, this and others rahmend[m]	19:10
DocScrutinizer05	the more infectious variants	19:10
Arsanerit	what monster?	19:11
DocScrutinizer05	the same	19:12
DocScrutinizer05	the more infectious variants	19:12
rahmend[m]	any new ideas on why korea/japan/new zealand/etc are doing so well atm? They all have the new variant	19:14
Arsanerit	islands	19:15
rahmend[m]	uk is an island	19:15
Arsanerit	island + competent rule	19:18
DocScrutinizer05	vaccination only makes sense IF we could vaccinate, like, 50% within 8 weeks. Clearly delusional	19:19
Arsanerit	South Korea is not geographically an island but for practical purposes it is.	19:19
Arsanerit	DocScrutinizer05: what do you propose?	19:19
DocScrutinizer05	get R_eff down to <0.7 NOW	19:20
rahmend[m]	<Arsanerit "island + competent rule"> ah yes	19:20
DocScrutinizer05	whatever it takes. I'd start at home office and schools	19:20
Arsanerit	DocScrutinizer05: Aren't we doing home office and home schools already?	19:21
rahmend[m]	are public use of temperature guns helpful in like restaurants at the front door?	19:21
DocScrutinizer05	HAH!	19:21
DocScrutinizer05	last I checked we were at 15% honme office. And schools, don't get me started	19:21
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Record day for UK vaccinations as total nears 9m: Almost 600,000 people received their first Covid jab on Saturday, government figures show. → https://is.gd/KAmLhR	19:22
rpifan	american news is really ridiculous	19:22
DocScrutinizer05	we need a "schools closed. PERIOD. office closed. PERIOD. if you want you may arrange home office, or do holiday"	19:22
Arsanerit	DocScrutinizer05: that would implies airports closed, because weather forecasters can't all work from home and if weather service closes, airports aren't allowed to remain open	19:23
LjL	I'd bring up air traffic control but there have been actual examples of them working from home...	19:24
DocScrutinizer05	of course there are system critical positions which need allowance in writing to continue	19:24
DocScrutinizer05	but FIFTEEN PERCENT? c'mon that's a pathetic joke, no lockdown	19:25
Arsanerit	we're at about 75% home office in my workplace	19:26
Arsanerit	(which is the German weather service)	19:26
LjL	If you look back at Italy's initial lockdown which did mandate that only essential jobs could continue in person, you'd find that jobs deemed essential were quite a lot, though, and when you think about it they really are. Probably not 85% though	19:26
Arsanerit	German industry argues (maybe not entirely unreasonably) that such a lockdown should be EU-wide, because if you do it only in Germany, international customers may move to suppliers in other EU countries and not come back after.	19:27
LjL	Arsanerit, it's very possible that you're a good example among many other bad examples. I do think that unless working from home is mandated, in many cases it just won't happen. My aunt got COVID because her workplace just straight out refused to let them work from home, and it WOULD have been possible	19:28
LjL	Only realistic chance to see it EU-wide is after the variants have created a spike so big that we all agree it's nearly unstoppable, I'm afraid	19:29
DocScrutinizer05	Arsanerit: arguments by industry didn't make sense since day one of the pandemic	19:30
LjL	Anyway Italy, France and Spain, AFAIK, have all had a lockdown like that during the first wave, and I guess it's very possible German industry benefited from it, so I wouldn't look at the economy so pettily	19:30
DocScrutinizer05	they may be right, just they are only in their little world, outside/beyond the limits of that little merchant world, they're moot	19:30
Arsanerit	LjL: Apparently German federal government is itself doing well with work from home (I work for the German federal government), but regional and local governments are mostly doing poorly (although reportedly it varies a lot).	19:31
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO: Vaccine Hoarding Would Be A "Catastrophic Moral Failure" That Keeps "Pandemic Burning" → https://is.gd/mjiwEG	19:35
LjL	Arsanerit: well, here, the public sector are the only ones who have a mandate for x% work from home. The private sector are just "encouraged". So the overall situation may be similar	19:37
DocScrutinizer05	to put it with de-facto's favorite phrase: it's just not acceptable that in this second - arguably more important and essential - lockdown, germany performs massively sub-par compared to the first ignorantly done one	19:41
DocScrutinizer05	we didn't learn, we got more stupid within 12 months	19:41
DocScrutinizer05	for reference: in first lockdown there were a few days where we actually reached R_eff<0.7	19:43
LjL	You were "lucky" during the first wave. I'm not sure if the level of stupidity has changed.	19:43
DocScrutinizer05	now we're not even close to that	19:43
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: yep, prolly	19:43
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +226 deaths (now 75975) since 22 hours ago	19:44
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: then, iirc home office was at ~30% or more during first lockdown	19:45
DocScrutinizer05	now that's "not possible"	19:45
LjL	Well, I don't know if it's not possible, but in theory it makes some sense that now the economy (meaning mainly people's ability to survive, not the corporation) couldn't stand it a second time. Every time there are more people below the poverty threshold here.	19:47
DocScrutinizer05	it seems however that those ~15% making the difference to first lockdown are not those poor ones but the employees of quite wealthy mid-tier companies that simply have bosses which are.. don't know, too lazy or not feeling comfortable with home office and the lack of "kick their asses" this provides	19:53
LjL	Yeah, could well be	19:54
DocScrutinizer05	quote (paraphrased) >>but but... the servers.. it's they got... we don't... there isn't the server capacity. And the regulations which can't get fullfilled... it's just impossible<<	19:55
DocScrutinizer05	bastards	19:56
DocScrutinizer05	then lock down your damn office, jackass. Maybe use those 4 weeks full lockdown to build up the server capacities you knew you were missing, since fabruary 2020!	19:59
DocScrutinizer05	>>4 WEEKS HOLIDAYS!<< /me pushes the fire alarm	20:00
LjL	so in Italy we're already seeing images of masses of people going back to get food and drinks, even though we've not even "re-opened" officially yet (but we will tomorrow)	21:02
LjL	at the same time, commissioner Arcuri (which is the guy who has the most power in managing the epidemic right now, since we have no prime minister, and which personally i can't stand) is saying that we have to accept that we're going to have a MUCH lower number of vaccines than expected in the first trimester	21:03
LjL	so how can we possibly be re-opening just based on an algorithm?	21:03
LjL	the algorithm doesn't have the knowledge that variants are coming in it	21:03
Brainstorm	New from NPR: Protesters Block COVID-19 Vaccination Site In LA: Dozens of protesters temporarily blocked the entrance to one of the nation's largest mass-vaccination sites. People in hundreds of cars, waiting in line for hours, had to wait even longer. → https://is.gd/NG0D47	21:08
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +3868 cases (now 981774) since 23 hours ago	21:36
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): COVID-19 in RSA: submitted by /u/MirkoConte to r/CoronaVirus_ITALIA → https://is.gd/wyiqzB	22:15
DocScrutinizer05	LjL: I completely agree	22:25
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The UK reached record number of 598389 vaccination per day → https://is.gd/dkVNc2	22:27
Brainstorm	Updates for Cuba: +1012 cases (now 26686), +1 deaths (now 214) since a day ago	22:32
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK vaccinates almost 600,000 people in single day for first time → https://is.gd/HYt6sD	23:29
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: UK reaches record number of daily vaccinations - 598,389 received their first dose on Saturday (10159 votes) \| https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55876866 \| https://redd.it/l9fmlm	23:37
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Britain to give Ireland priority in any sharing of Covid vaccines → https://is.gd/Jogv5h	23:41

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