| ubLIX[m] | %title https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n303 | 00:20 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | ubLIX[m]: From www.bmj.com: What went wrong in the global governance of covid-19? | The BMJ | 00:20 |
| ubLIX[m] | ^ editorial, "What went wrong in the global governance of covid-19?", relates to the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response | 00:21 |
| LjL | "everything"? | 01:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +2921 cases (now 1.0 million), +88 deaths (now 14610) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +9246 cases (now 2.3 million), +708 deaths (now 63979) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4035 cases (now 815083), +93 deaths (now 20998) since 23 hours ago | 01:45 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants (80 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03324-6#article-info | https://redd.it/lgvaxv | 02:41 |
| pigzuu | china hasn't had a covid death since last spring? | 02:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for St. Martin: +174 cases (now 1408) since 13 days ago — St. Barthelemy: +95 cases (now 455) since 13 days ago | 03:00 |
| pigzuu | https://shop.demetech.us/collections/n95-respirator-masks $2 / mask | 03:28 |
| pigzuu | oh wait, $4/per nyt has article on them | 03:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +9780 cases (now 4.0 million) since 20 hours ago | 03:43 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add Nature article about in vitro reduction of activity of mRNA vacci… ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/9d05377b1ff6f7584398fc3e0a30fe6e2086d6b5 ) | 03:55 | |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: Fully vaccinated people can skip Covid quarantines, CDC says (10063 votes) | https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/10/health/covid-vaccinated-quarantine-cdc-guidance/index.html | https://redd.it/lh6p27 | 06:12 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the Bronx enables clinical and epidemiological inference by J. Maximilian Fels et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-10 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.02.08.21250641 [... want %more?] | 07:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for St Martin, France: +174 cases (now 1408) since 13 days ago — France: +12018 cases (now 3.4 million) since 10 hours ago — United Kingdom: +6290 cases (now 4.0 million), +370 deaths (now 114959) since 13 hours ago — Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada: +53 cases (now 510) since a day ago | 08:10 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: by MPs do you mean Members of Parliament (Bundestagabgeordnete) or Minister-Präsidenten der Länder? | 11:18 |
| Arsanerit | I don't think Ministerpräsidenten are elected by people, rather by Landstag? | 11:19 |
| Arsanerit | There was a viorologist in de ARD Extra last night who seemed to question the empirical evidence for the higher rate of infection for B117 with cases in Ireland going down. | 11:20 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- WHO Disease Outbreak News: Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo ( http://www.who.int/entity/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/index.html ) | 11:56 | |
| zutt | corona has probably changed my thinking, but now ebola sounds much worse than it did back when it originally started spreading some years ago | 12:14 |
| zutt | :s | 12:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Antigua and Barb.: +31 cases (now 381) since a day ago — Turks and Caicos: +2 deaths (now 12) since 9 hours ago | 12:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | moin | 13:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Timor-Leste: +14 cases (now 100) since 2 days ago | 13:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I was too optimistic, as usual :-( [29 Jan 2021 14:58:36] <DocScrutinizer05> /nick nostradamus; /msg Germany will hit 50/100k7d in 3 weeks. Around that time shit will hit the fan regarding discussion about reverting of NPI like curfew and home office and SCHOOLS. If Germany acts like usual, this won't have effect until 2 more weeks later and in 6 weeks (with one week inertia) the incidences will reach 25/100k7d. UNLESS - most | 13:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | likely - the VOC beast eats us until then | 13:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | should have known shit hits the fan much earlier | 13:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | news: Bavaria lifts night curfew completely for zones <100/100k7d and modifies it from 20:00- to 22:00- for the rest | 14:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | in effect from next monday | 14:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | oops sorry, 21:00 was now, 22:00 from next monday | 14:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | zutt: ebola is "a loser" virus, it kills too fast to be successful on large scale | 14:07 |
| zutt | DocScrutinizer05: yeah | 14:07 |
| zutt | my boss said the same thing when we spoke about this for a minute | 14:07 |
| zutt | but, its still scary thing | 14:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it sure is. But thing we learned: virus with long presymptiomatic transmission timespan is nasty, imagine ebola had that property, mankinf would be doomed | 14:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +9284 cases (now 2.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +1356 cases (now 539474), +17 deaths (now 9716) since 23 hours ago | 15:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de <DocScrutinizer> petschge: was kann man daraus schlussfolgern wenn trotz zwischenzeitlich eingefuehrter FFP2 maskenpflicht und trotz sich inzwischen vermutlich auf schon 15~20% steigernden mutantenanteils Rt seit 6 wochen wie festgenagelt twischen 0.85 und 0.9 schwankt? | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: petschge: what can be concluded from this if, despite the FFP2 mask requirement that has been introduced in the meantime and despite the mutant proportion Rt, which has now probably increased to 15 ~ 20%, has fluctuated between 0.85 and 0.9 for the last 6 weeks? (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 16:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de <petschge> dass Rt vorallem von der angst der bevölkerung nachgeregelt wird, unabhängig von den offiziellen regeln | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: that Rt is readjusted primarily by the fear of the population, regardless of the official rules (MyMemory) — that Rt is readjusted mainly by the fear of the population, regardless of the official rules (Google) — That *Rt *vorallem from this *angst this *bevölkerung *nachgeregelt will, independently from this official regulate (Apertium) | 16:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de <petschge> (das haben wir ja auch schon vorher gesehen. R fiel immer schon ne woche vor neuen massnahmen, weil die diskussion um "lage scheise, brauchen wir neue massnahmen?" die angst hochgetrieben hat) | 16:09 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: (We have already seen that before. R always fell a week before new measures because the discussion about "situation shit, do we need new measures?" raised the fear) (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 16:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de <petschge> (deswegen retten fahrradhelme auch keine leben. weil das niedrigere verletzungsrisko dann durch schnelleres fahren, weniger abstand und andere risiken wieder kompensiert wird) | 16:09 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: (That's why bike helmets don't save lives either. Because the lower risk of injury is then compensated for by riding faster, less distance and other risks) (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 16:10 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Does Prior Exposure to Coronaviruses Protect You? (80 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/10/does-prior-exposure-to-coronaviruses-protect-you | https://redd.it/lh01v3 | 16:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +4010 cases (now 1.0 million), +75 deaths (now 14678) since 22 hours ago | 16:52 |
| Arsanerit | If closing stuff brings down R only due to indirect effects that doesn't mean closing isn't necessary. | 16:56 |
| LjL | Arsanerit: I don't think the above is saying its because of indirect effects from the closure... It's saying it's just from changes in the way population naturally behaves when they're more fearful due to the virus being more widespread or dangerous at a given time | 17:25 |
| pwr22 | I seem to have a sore throat and a slight cough today | 17:54 |
| pwr22 | Don't quite feel 100% | 17:54 |
| pwr22 | Hopefully not covid 😀 | 17:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saint Lucia: +110 cases (now 2137), +3 deaths (now 22) since 2 days ago — Canada: +63 deaths (now 21014) since 23 hours ago | 18:07 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Tocilizumab reduces deaths in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 (81 votes) | https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/recovery-press-release-tocilizumab_final.pdf | https://redd.it/lhml8f | 18:11 |
| LjL | pwr22, maybe it's just SARS | 18:23 |
| kreyren | Is it sane to take a blood plasma from a covid-19 survivor with 8.57 IgG and inject it to myself when i have covid-19 early symptoms? | 18:24 |
| kreyren | afaik that's how trump was treated no? | 18:25 |
| pwr22 | LjL: 😀 | 18:43 |
| de-facto | if they want to increase contact rates by opening schools they must restrict it somewhere else instead then | 18:57 |
| de-facto | overall we need to reduce contact rates to more than 1/1.44 = 0.69 of current contact rates | 18:58 |
| de-facto | from observation and modeling we need to reduce to 69% of what we currently have, they instead may increase it to 124% with opening schools? | 18:59 |
| de-facto | (the paper about reopening schools increasing reproduction by 24%) | 18:59 |
| de-facto | and that paper was without the VOCs | 19:00 |
| de-facto | i dont even know anymore what to say about their "strategy" | 19:00 |
| LjL | kreyren, i thought Trump got the Regeneron antibody cocktail, not donor plasma | 19:02 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext | 19:03 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives | 19:03 |
| de-facto | "...although the increase was significant only for school reopening (R ratio 1·24, 95% CI 1·00–1·52) and lifting bans on public gatherings of more than ten people (1·25, 1·03–1·51)..." | 19:03 |
| de-facto | "Published:October 22, 2020" | 19:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/1qsiZOF https://i.imgur.com/LWdR8pW.png src: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/coronavirus-mutante-b117-daten-1.5197700 | 19:07 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Denmark: Incidence of VOC B.1.1.7 vs Classic SARS-CoV-2 - Album on Imgur | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: difference between full school reopening and Wechselunterricht? | 19:09 |
| de-facto | hence containing B.1.1.7 requires 144% of the efforts for reduction of reproduction hence the 1/1.44 = 0.69 of what we currently do to achieve R ~ 0.8 < 1 with the "classic" variant | 19:09 |
| Arsanerit | Who was this virologist in ARD Extra yesterday who said that empirical evidence from Ireland, UK, Switzerland did not seem to support the view that B117 is as infectious as modelling suggests? | 19:09 |
| Arsanerit | And France where schools and shops are apparently open? | 19:10 |
| de-facto | well they might say many things, i want to see the data, otherwise i dont believe them | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | 90% drop in new infections in Ireland? | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | Ireland had R=0.7 despite having B117? | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | Also big decrease in new cases in UK? | 19:12 |
| de-facto | well yeah in Portugal and Ireland they had B.1.1.7 outbreaks and had to drastically reduce contact rates i assume, how else would their incidence go down (assuming they do similar amount of testing) | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | Did they reduce contact rates that much more than Germany? Much stricter lockdowns? | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | I'm just confused. | 19:13 |
| de-facto | if the portion of B.1.1.7 seems to consistently raise in many locations i would assume the most probable explanation would be that it does have more efficient reproduction under the same conditions relative to the "classic" variants | 19:13 |
| de-facto | i.e. if the reproduction of the "classic" variants measure how current contact rates (allowing their transmission) are, the increase relative to the "classic" incidence by the new variants should measure how much more efficient the replication of the new variant takes place under more or less the same conditions | 19:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kuwait: +1048 cases (now 175031), +5 deaths (now 985) since a day ago — Italy: +15137 cases (now 2.7 million), +391 deaths (now 92729) since a day ago | 19:15 |
| de-facto | hence my fit fo the portion of B.1.1.7 relative to "classic" SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark from the data provided by sueddeutsche.de | 19:16 |
| Arsanerit | but if total number is low enough for contact tracing? | 19:17 |
| LjL | the more we learn the less we know | 19:19 |
| de-facto | that hopefully will help us with more efficient containment, yet it cant prevent the more efficient spread of the new variants | 19:19 |
| de-facto | if we are extremely lucky and the majority of contacts can be traced and isolated it might help a bit with the required 69% ~ 1/144% of current reproduction once the new variant took over | 19:21 |
| de-facto | its not a question if it will happen but when, with 144% in the first (exponential) takeover the portion of B.1.1.7 will double each 9.88 days = 5.2 days Ln(2) / Ln(1.44) | 19:23 |
| de-facto | but yeah as you said its good to know that Portugal and Ireland as well as UK managed to bring incidence down even with B.1.1.7 around | 19:26 |
| de-facto | it just requires appropriately more effort if its more contagious, but ofc its possible | 19:27 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add Lancet meta-analysis finding no transmissible virus after 9 days ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/95f2404fb3a287e145dbba8b3d146ac670a4bc3a ) | 19:31 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Remove covidvax.news entirely, it seems to be gone for good ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/6f635e1f6e7de5274b55b1310bfdcba8a6823402 ) | 19:41 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +10941 cases (now 4.0 million), +678 deaths (now 115529) since 16 hours ago | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +17853 cases (now 3.0 million), +513 deaths (now 64217) since 23 hours ago — France: +22601 cases (now 3.4 million), +338 deaths (now 80732) since 23 hours ago | 20:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China bans BBC World News after criticizing pandemic and Xinjiang coverage → https://is.gd/dmxcuu | 20:58 |
| LjL | everyone's banning everyone else | 20:58 |
| LjL | India's banning Twitter and sometimes the whole internet | 20:58 |
| LjL | bleh | 20:58 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add one more paper about D614G increasing infectiousness ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/65a38f27a14528cf54961c6241ff204875913380 ) | 21:06 | |
| LjL | 15% of cats likely infected in Wuhan https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1817796 - i really would like to know if cats can infect humans back... unlikely as it may be | 21:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add one more paper about D614G increasing infectiousness → https://is.gd/mDcQ80 | 21:10 |
| LjL | this is a FAQ from an italian paper, Google translated... i found it pretty interesting, it answers questions without skirting and trying to say everything's fine, and links to studies (preprints too) for its assertions https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/covid-19-scienza/ | 21:15 |
| LjL | de-facto, DocScrutinizer05 ubLIX[m] ↑ lots of questions (at least tentatively, but with studies) answered here | 21:16 |
| LjL | obviously the "updated" date is wrong | 21:16 |
| LjL | one thing i found on it that i didn't know is they found a *wild* mink in Utah with the virus | 21:17 |
| LjL | also the stuff above about cats is from there | 21:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID deaths in Africa jump 40% in one month: WHO: Deaths from COVID-19 in Africa surged by 40 percent over the last month, the World Health Organisation said Thursday, as the continent's toll approaches 100,000. → https://is.gd/JGZm2W | 21:23 |
| LjL | known* deaths | 21:28 |
| LjL | who knows what the hell is actually going on in all corners of africa | 21:28 |
| LjL | we barely know it here | 21:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Disabled people account for six in 10 deaths in England last year - ONS → https://is.gd/n1p4fX | 21:47 |
| Arsanerit | The WHO page on COVID-19 vaccines has not been updated since 12 December :-/ https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid in Wales: Vaccine supply to fall as four centres temporarily close → https://is.gd/XLHKjB | 22:12 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, maybe we'll do like with the contact tracing apps, just stop talking about them and hope everyone forgets they were even attempted | 22:28 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: The German one was improved recently. | 22:29 |
| rpifan | wwas it? | 22:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: @tvinar Tomas Vinar: B.1.258∆, a SARS-CoV-2 variant with ∆H69/∆V70 in the Spike protein circulating in the Czech Republic and Slovakia → https://is.gd/jDHea0 | 22:37 |
| de-facto | s-gene dropout eye brow raiser? | 22:42 |
| LjL | btw the bot was offline (my mistake) earlier today and last night, so it didn't post anything it usually does | 22:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Los Angeles forced to suspend vaccine centers over dire shortage: Facing a severe vaccine shortage, Los Angeles moved to temporarily close five major inoculation centers including its giant Dodger Stadium site Thursday, even as California this week topped the nation's pandemic death toll. → https://is.gd/0NBUEv | 23:03 |
| Arsanerit | rpifan: yes, it now has some extra features showing current stats, as well as a logbook people can use to do their own logging of who they had contact with, plus it apparetly works on older iphones | 23:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: thanks | 23:09 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, they may have gotten ideas from other open source software maybe: microG's implementation of exposure notifications has statistics, and then someone made a "Corona-Warn-App Companion" that gets the database and shows even more statistics, and F-Droid contains an app or two to keep a manual log of contacts | 23:19 |
| LjL | IOW open source is good | 23:19 |
| LjL | but still, here, even TV has stopped showing the periodic PSAs about installing the app | 23:19 |
| LjL | downloads have stopped at around 10 million and don't seem to be going up much | 23:19 |
| LjL | %fdroid corona | 23:20 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Corona-Info v1.3 (com.corona_info) in https://f-droid.org/repo: show current number of Corona cases in local district (Germany) - updated 2020-04-01, see https://github.com/devasworski/Corona-Info/releases | 23:20 |
| LjL | %fdroid corona contact tracing | 23:20 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: no application with that name was found! | 23:20 |
| LjL | liar | 23:20 |
| LjL | actually this is in F-Droid and is a fully free fork of Germany's CWA | 23:21 |
| LjL | %fdroid contact diary | 23:22 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Contact Diary 1.4.1 (com.apozas.contactdiary) in https://f-droid.org/repo: Keep track of the people you have recently been with - updated 2021-01-09, see https://github.com/apozas/contactdiary/releases | 23:22 |
| LjL | this is the "manual" one i had in mind | 23:22 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: probably, I think the hope is that by adding such features more people will use the corona-warn-app | 23:27 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: Fauci: Vaccines for Kids as Young as First Graders Could Be Authorized by September (10020 votes) | https://link.propublica.org/click/22912653.255948/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucHJvcHVibGljYS5vcmcvYXJ0aWNsZS9mYXVjaS12YWNjaW5lcy1raWRzP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9c2FpbHRocnUmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bWFqb3JpbnZlc3RpZ2F0aW9ucyZ1dG1fY29udGVudD1mZWF0dXJl/5f636d21d242e74796151f5bBaf23a9eb | https://redd.it/lhkggb | 23:31 |
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