libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-02-21

bolovanos_de-facto, "Pandemrix was found to be associated with narcolepsy from observational studies, increasing the risk of narcolepsy by 5-14 times in children and 2-7 times in adults. The increased risk of narcolepsy due to vaccination in children and adolescents was around 1 incident per 18,400 doses.[5]00:07
bolovanos_The British Medical Journal obtained adverse event report data from GSK and conducted an analysis of that data, which showed that Pandemrix was associated with adverse events much more frequently than the two other GSK H1N1 vaccines. The risk of adverse events after Pandemrix was more than five times higher than the risk after the other two GSK H1N1 vaccines. Vaccination had continued after the figures that allowed this analysis became00:07
bolovanos_available. In the Irish parliament, TD Clare Daly commented that, “The Health Service Executive (HSE) decided to purchase Pandemrix and continued to distribute it even after they knew it was dangerous and untested, and before most of the public in Ireland received it.”[7] "00:07
bolovanos_but still not sure if it is that case00:08
bolovanos_https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemrix00:08
bolovanos_" The reports concern children 12 to 16 years old, whose symptoms occurred one to two months after vaccination."00:08
de-factowasnt it a adjuvant or such? vaccines are very diverse in terms of how they function to stimulate the immune system00:12
LjLi don't know about that incident, however i wonder, in case a "vaccine platform" is blanket-approved by the FDA/EMA to cover coronavirus variants... let's say the platform itself is safe. but what happens if the spike protein acquires mutations that make it similar enough to a human antigen (dunno, ACE2 itself) that immunity to it means auto-immunity? this might be a bit far-fetched, but you could get "instant approval" of something quite bad00:13
de-factoidk about that, since the s-protein would need to fit as the *counterpart* of hACE2, so it cant be similar to that itself then00:14
bolovanos_de-facto, that pasted was adjuvant vaccine, but I do not think that I have found the one I am looking for00:15
de-factoLjL, would be different if the vaccination would target an antigen that would try to mimic some human cell structure to camouflage of the virus itself00:16
bolovanos_LjL, yes - that is concerning - and that is partly reason why am I searching for it00:16
de-factoi would be more worried about immunity also building up against the vaccine platform itself (e.g. adenovirus vector or LNPs for mRNA)00:17
de-factobecause that might prevent re-use of the same vaccine platform for updating immunity against new variants of the antigen (s-protein)00:18
bolovanos_that is for sure problem - agree00:18
LjLde-facto, sorry then, not ACE2, whatever the natural respective of ACE2 is00:19
de-factoafaik both the adenovirus vector (AstraZeneca, J&J etc) as well as the mRNA (BioNTech/Pfizer, Moderna, Curevac) dont use any adjuvants00:19
LjLwell i'm definitely worried about adenovirus ones losing efficacy, i hadn't thought about developing sensitivity to the lipids until you mentioned it the other day00:19
de-factoi dont know if that is a thing though, but afaik antibodies can be developed against all sorts of molecular surfaces00:20
LjLi think there are some vaccines listed on covidvax that use an adjuvant, including... what was the one that used two different adjuvants in two different trials? but probably wasn't one that's already approved00:20
bolovanos_for me it is also new info00:20
BrainstormUpdates for France: +13932 cases (now 3.6 million) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +4777 cases (now 2.4 million) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +2248 cases (now 844150), +45 deaths (now 21617) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +4217 cases (now 1.1 million) since 22 hours ago00:21
bolovanos_btw is that "n the case of the COVID-19 vaccine, both the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech versions of the vaccine use the mRNA encoding the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the protein that the virus uses to get into cells." - https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/lipid-nanoparticles-in-covid-19-vaccines-the-new-mercury-to-antivaxxers/00:21
de-factoLjL, yeah i think the vaccines that use either inactivated SARS-CoV-2 itself or just the s-protein (itself not the RNA or DNA recipe for it) use adjuvants00:21
bolovanos_whole spike protein?00:21
LjLde-facto, i don't seem to be finding it now, but i remember a study using "synthetic ____ (whatever binds to ACE2 receptors)" as a possible COVID-19 treatment, i.e. bind a lot of stuff to ACE2 receptors so that the virus can't00:21
bolovanos_LjL, that sound crazy - it would block ACE2 rec. functionality, wouldn't it?00:22
LjLde-facto, in that case Novavax could be one? which is actually an effective vaccine it would seem00:22
de-factobolovanos_, yes its the whole s-protein trimer stabilized in its prefusion configuration (such as it would occur on the virion itself) by two point mutations00:22
LjLbolovanos_, yeah, i guess. it would be nice if i remembered more keywords to find it again00:22
de-factoLjL, yes the Novavax uses an adjuvant (their saponin based matrix thingy) to expose the correct orientation for the s-proteins (that adhere to it)00:24
de-factoLjL, maybe you meant that they tried to use hACE2 (itself) to saturate the spikes on SARS-CoV-2 (and therefore make them incapable to dock to cells)00:25
LjLoh! no, i have it the other way around00:25
LjLyes00:25
LjL"decoy" ACE2 receptors00:25
LjLi realized while grepping channel logs, as well as because you said it :P00:25
de-factoidk about their status though00:27
LjLnote to self for grep: it's "synthetic" or "fake" or "decoy" ACE2 *receptors* that were tried as a therapy to saturate the spike protein, not whatever binds to ACE200:27
de-factosame about those nano-bodies that also dock to s-protein on SARS-CoV-2 (similar to monoclonal antibodies, but without the antibody tail functionality)00:27
LjLde-facto, i don't know either. i think some concerns were raised (i mean maybe just here, or the other channel) that they might cause people issues issues because... whatever normally binds to ACE2 could bind to those instead...? which brings me back to: what binds to ACE2? is it a number of different things? surely it is *something* that gives the receptor a reason to exist00:28
de-factoso they dock to it and just are very sticky hence block their further functionality00:28
LjLi should probably know this from learning it many times in the past year but apparently i don't ;(00:28
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: [Pfizer] Vaccine prevents 98.9% of COVID deaths, Israel's Health Ministry data shows - 99.2% protective against serious illness, reduces chance of hospitalization by 98.9% → https://is.gd/8PWrGu00:30
LjLi think maybe it was proposed as prophylaxis, so like, in infected people, okay, but if you use it in e.g. healthcare workers to stop them from getting sick (this was before we had vaccines, of course), there is a question of side effects00:30
de-factoah yeah good point, ACE2 is there for providing some natural function as a receptor, so there must also be something that binds to it (normally in absence of SARS-CoV-2) that also would be saturated by flooding the body with hACE200:30
de-factohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renin%E2%80%93angiotensin_system00:32
ubLIX[m]ACE2 converts (enzymatically?) AT-II into AT-1,7, which cause vasodilation and reduces inflammation; blockading ACE2 (via sars2 or otherwise) should be expected to drive up inflammation00:33
bolovanos_yes that is probably why people with hypertension have problem00:34
bolovanos_some hypertension medicaments aims ACE200:35
ubLIX[m]from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vZDVbqRhyM00:35
ubLIX[m]"Coronavirus Pandemic Update 37: The ACE-2 Receptor - The Doorway to COVID-19 (ACE Inhibitors & ARBs)" video from way back in March 2020, if you fancy hearing about ACE2 in video form00:35
de-factoyet one would not block ACE2 receptors but rather saturate their natural counterpart in the body (at the same time as the intended saturation of the s-protein in SARS-CoV-2)00:37
de-factothem not getting stimulated then may have a similar effect though00:38
LjLubLIX[m], the opposite of vasodilation is vasoconstriction, which isn't very good for your thrombi if it happens when it shouldn't, right? which means... if you have a virus filling up all the ACE2, you might get undesired vasoconstriction?00:40
bolovanos_that last youtube video  is bit old, but I cannot help my self but I have some article in hand which compared risk factor of people with high blood pressure treated (with ace2 aimed meds.)and not treated and those treated had lower morbidity00:42
bolovanos_but do not take it as granted - one of many articles - who know where it is, what was it etc...00:42
bolovanos_what a outcome - I am bit tired and text box for writing has space for few words00:44
bolovanos_gn00:44
ubLIX[m]LjL: yes, the above linked introduction to ACE2 says that it's the fused combination of ACE-2/ATR-I which converts AT-II to AT-1,7  -  high levels of AT-II split apart this fusing, leading to vasoconstriction, high blood pressure, and increased vascular permeability; the splitting also opens the ACE2 to SARS2 invasion; the speaker remarks that to a degree this is supposition but I think that was referring to the00:49
ubLIX[m]significance of the opening to SARS2 invasion00:49
LjLubLIX[m], well at that time there was a lot of talk of ACE2 blockers vs inhibitors vs similar, and whether they could fight COVID, or conversely make it worse. i think most of that discussion seems to have died out?00:55
dTalwhatever happened to "smoking is a prophylactic"?00:55
ubLIXi guess that video was a bad offering for the point that ACE2 is a significant actor in control of inflammation (since that point featured only slightly in the video)00:56
ubLIXbut that was the point i had in mind when thinking that blockading ACE2 is something you just wouldn't want to do00:57
ubLIX[m]unless you found some way of blockading it with something that facilitated its role in the production of AT-1,701:04
LjLoh cool01:16
LjL<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A large Sahara dust storm is forecast to spread across Europe, reaching into UK and Scandinavia. It will be followed by early spring warm weather through the rest of February and might extend into early March as well → https://is.gd/MyUjqP01:16
LjLthis should help with the lungs clearing01:16
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid vaccine: All UK adults to be offered jab by 31 July - PM: Boris Johnson says there will be "no let up", as he prepares to set out his plan to ease lockdown. → https://is.gd/jKi3SM01:31
BrainstormUpdates for Mayotte: +1300 cases (now 15792), +3 deaths (now 92) since 2 days ago — Somalia: +257 cases (now 5889), +15 deaths (now 194) since a day ago01:42
LjLi don't know whether to envy the UK or hope we postpone so as to get as little AZ as possible ;(01:56
LjLbut i mean, medical people are already getting AZ here, so i guess i lean on "i envy the UK"01:57
LjLthere are things to be said, like their questionable choice of "dealying" the second shot (i use scarequotes because i suspect it will be delayed sort of indefinitely for many)01:57
LjLbut still01:57
pwr22Oh god I was trying to catch up on the history but in the end I've just skipped to the end02:00
pwr22Due to all that conspiracy griefing02:00
LjLpwr22, and i deleted much of it, at that!02:05
LjLthere's basically the beginning, and the end left02:06
BrainstormUpdates for France: +10701 cases (now 3.6 million), +514 deaths (now 84147) since 23 hours ago02:50
de-facto.title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo2QQTmbECQ talks about an interesting study about vaccinations in Israel02:52
Brainstormde-facto: From www.youtube.com: Encouraging Israeli vaccine data - YouTube02:52
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1?fbclid=IwAR1mnoVZiabuYtzRCsJhwDGmiOeT2yKfbHLbF6b2kx7tWPwQiDEMEGViTtI02:53
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel | medRxiv02:53
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1.full-text without the tracking garbage02:53
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel | medRxiv02:53
de-factothey even give vaccine effectiveness per day after first dose as a curve02:55
de-factoDr. John Campbell got the BNT162b2 shot (because he was called in for excess shots usage)03:30
de-factolucky guy03:31
de-factohe says it might be good to have a decent vitamin D level, good nutrition and sleep status as well as taking it easy with sports and no alcohol in the time the immune response to the vaccine takes place03:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel Secretly Agrees to Fund Vaccines for Syria as Part of Prisoner Swap → https://is.gd/Lw58pd04:52
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Effectiveness results of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine from data collected in Israel up to 13.2.21 (83 votes) | https://www.gov.il/he/departments/news/20022021-01 | https://redd.it/loljxz05:55
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 722: More coronaviruses in the pipeline: The entire TWiV team assembles to discuss resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, discovery of SARS-CoV-2 related viruses in bats in Southeast Asia, and increased Ct values after administration of mRNA vaccine. → https://is.gd/3nDaQh06:19
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia won't advertise COVID-19 vaccine on Facebook but vows publicity → https://is.gd/RPVJQp07:08
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +2640 cases (now 752379), +28 deaths (now 21887) since a day ago — Germany: +71 deaths (now 68189) since 19 hours ago07:17
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Herd immunity is the end game for the pandemic, but the AstraZeneca vaccine won’t get us there (88 votes) | https://www.uwa.edu.au/news/article/2021/february/herd-immunity-is-the-end-game-for-the-pandemic | https://redd.it/lokv4a07:25
BrainstormUpdates for Lima, Peru: +9777 cases (now 582007), +167 deaths (now 19540) since a day ago — Loreto, Peru: +459 cases (now 29569), +10 deaths (now 1136) since a day ago — Lombardy, Italy: +3019 cases (now 576766), +37 deaths (now 28008) since 20 hours ago — United Kingdom: +10432 cases (now 4.1 million), +445 deaths (now 120479) since 20 hours ago07:29
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Kuwait Puts Citizens Before Expats as Vaccine Push Stirs Anger - BNN Bloomberg → https://is.gd/L3vfZz07:45
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK's Sunak to raise business tax to pay for COVID-19 support: The Sunday Times → https://is.gd/y8XcD408:33
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Israel secretly agrees to fund vaccines for Syria as part of prisoner swap → https://is.gd/L0gjDw08:46
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 21, 2021: The World Health Organization maintains up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. You can find answers to frequently asked questions about Covid-19 and vaccines in our FAQ . → https://is.gd/J8hKeX09:10
lazysundaydreamsde-facto saw just yesterday that you're watching CZ closely.. makes sense in Germany09:22
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Germany, once a model, is swamped like everyone else by pandemic’s second wave → https://is.gd/kyU7hg09:47
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid vaccine: All UK adults to be offered jab by 31 July - PM: Boris Johnson says there will be "no let up", as he prepares to set out his plan to ease lockdown. → https://is.gd/jKi3SM10:24
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Pulse oximeters, widely used in Covid fight, may yield inaccurate results, warns FDA → https://is.gd/gPO5IL11:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Palestinians accuse Israel of blocking vaccines to Gaza → https://is.gd/1TgQ8j12:39
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus: Latest data shows vaccine reduces transmission - Hancock → https://is.gd/23xHui12:51
BrainstormNew from The Atlantic: When 60,000 COVID-19 Hospitalizations Count as Good News: Editor’s Note: The Atlantic is making vital coverage of the coronavirus available to all readers. Find the collection here . → https://is.gd/3oKLxK13:29
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO panel to recommend deeper probe into farms that supply wet markets in Wuhan → https://is.gd/zCBXtw13:54
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'It was the most nerve-racking hour of my career,' says pilot who flew Covid-19 vaccines to M'sia → https://is.gd/k7cXfU14:06
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +73 deaths (now 68191) since 19 hours ago14:06
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan Discovers New Coronavirus Variant → https://is.gd/QK0Ik714:19
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: COVID infections dropped 95.8% after both Pfizer shots - Israeli Health Ministry (10011 votes) | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine/covid-infections-dropped-95-8-after-both-pfizer-shots-israeli-health-ministry-idUSKBN2AK0NC?il=0 | https://redd.it/lodwi814:28
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 21FEB21 → https://is.gd/RHHitL15:21
BrainstormNew from NPR: U.K. Moves To Speed Up Vaccinations, With Goal Of 1st Dose For All Adults By July 31: Under a new target announced by the British government on Sunday, adults would be vaccinated one month earlier than initially planned. → https://is.gd/zihKLJ15:59
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +6820 cases (now 2.4 million), +78 deaths (now 68196) since 22 hours ago16:23
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: USA now vaccinating more people against COVID-19 in one day than Canada has in total → https://is.gd/jDr3No16:24
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: 'Vaccinegate' in Argentina: Alberto Fernández removes Minister of Health | 19FEB21 → https://is.gd/VyUhih16:37
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK speeds up vaccinations: All adults get first coronavirus shot by July 31 → https://is.gd/bkHaLg17:14
BrainstormNew from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: For a wonderfully told and well-explained piece on the #SQ677 variants and the troubles of #SARSCoV2, I can't recommend this brilliant 5 minute listen by @Elana_Gordon of @TheWorld enough! 🐦🦜🦉Featuring myself, @macroliter @PaulBieniasz & @vscooper!https://www.pri.org/file/2021-02-19/naming-coronavirus-variantshttps://is.gd/JQYkq017:27
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tanzania’s president admits country has COVID-19 problem → https://is.gd/1JKmjA17:39
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nations Pay Wildly Different Prices For Vaccines → https://is.gd/sgPvJW17:52
pwr22Is it just me or does wearing surgical masks for a while cause them to pick up leads of moisture from your breath?18:07
blkshpDepends how cold it is.18:09
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: France's 'out of control' Nice braces for new COVID curbs: The French Riviera city of Nice was on Sunday preparing to face a new set of local restrictions against COVID-19 to combat an outbreak described as out of control and spreading much faster than elsewhere in France. → https://is.gd/L5buUM18:16
ArsaneritIs it possible to test everyone every day (or at least anyone going to work, shop, school, or other public place which includes other people)?18:19
LjLWith rapid antigenic test, maybe. I'd say certainly not save gargantuan efforts with PCR18:23
LjLpwr22: it can... It's worse with FFPx18:24
pwr22Oh man, maybe my masks are just bad18:24
pwr22After a trip to the shops it was so unpleasant when I came out the shop that I took it off when outside18:25
ArsaneritCould that be an effective alternative to the proposed "zero covid" shutdown? https://zero-covid.org/language/en/18:27
LjLpwr22: Surgical masks are meant to have a have a hydrophilic material that absorbs your moisture inside, while having a hydrophobic material outside to stop droplets coming from outside from seeping it (and a filtering material in the middle)... But while I don't know about there, here a lot of things are now falling into the umbrella term of "surgical" masks that wouldn't have been considered such before the pandemic18:27
ArsaneritSurgical masks in Europe have to meet EN 14683?18:32
LjLArsanerit: maybe they do, but it's a mess in Italy, they made emergency laws that provide definitions for type I, II and III masks that I'm not really sure match the ones in EN 14683 either in theory or practice... Even if they do in theory, they've given emergency authorization to produce masks to a number of companies that were producing other things, and I've seen apparent quality vary widely even among masks with similar ratings/certifications printed out18:35
LjLAlso, funny... I didn't know this, but it also doesn't seem to show up on Google outside this "featured snipped" on the mobile version of Google:18:36
LjL"Polypropylene is a naturally hydrophobic polymer, meaning it “fears water” and causes water to bead up on its surface. ... When this angle is >90° the material is considered hydrophobic, and the closer it is to 180° the easier the drop will roll off, much like a drop of water on a windshield. Most importantly, this means any viruses and bacteria hitching a ride on airborne droplets will not stick to your mask!"18:37
LjLIt's supposed to come from nanoscience.com but if I search for portions of that text all I find is a page on LinkedIn instead18:37
LjLO.o18:38
LjLMaybe I should grab a computer, one not in phone format18:38
LjLokay from a computer, i could easily find it at https://www.nanoscience.com/applications/medical/why-your-surgical-mask-orientation-matters-how-we-use-wettability-to-our-advantage/ (don't ask me what google is doing with mobile pages, or whether i did something stupid)18:48
ArsaneritI wear FFP2 usually18:59
LjLArsanerit, "actual" FFP2, or KN95 recertified as FFP2? (the latter is what's common here, and similar to the "surgical" ones, it's... dubious whether it actually meets the certification, especially fit-wise)19:00
ArsaneritLjL: FFP2NR CE 2834 EN 149:2001 + A1:2009 Regulation(EU) 2016/42519:04
ArsaneritLjL: I don't know if that actual FFP2 or KN95 recertified as FFP2.  How do I tell?19:06
LjLArsanerit, i don't know any particular tricks, but in my experience KN95 masks are usually labelled "KN95" on the mask itself (carved in, or printed) with the FPP2 stuff printed on the box instead19:07
LjLArsanerit, re rapid tests: i think it would be good to have frequent rapid tests for workers and students, but i don't think it would get use anywhere near "zero covid"19:10
ArsaneritLjL: It says FFP2 on the masks themselves too.19:10
ArsaneritLjL: I was thinkngi "zero covid except with negative test", maybe "except with negative test or vaccine".19:11
Arsaneriti.e. close industry, schools, etc. for all except for those with a recynt negative test (or vaccine)19:11
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @EricTopol: RT by @Dereklowe: The good news is that South Africa is back to its pre-B.1.351 baseline in covid cases. There's no proof this variant is more infectious. Its immune evasion is enough to explain how it took off. And the descent occurred without vaccines. → https://is.gd/6KxdIx19:19
BrainstormNew from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: I was honoured to be included in Sonntags @Blickch's list of "10 Swiss #SARSCoV2 Heros" with a great interview by @fabiennekatrinI recommend reading the other interviews too!Also see the article for a glimpse of the desk where all my work [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/k0iZve19:31
LjLthe fact that it has enough immune evasion to re-infect people who had COVID before is not something i'd call good news :\19:32
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Germany urges 'caution' as COVID infections climb again: German Health Minister Jens Spahn urged caution on Sunday in the face of rising coronavirus infection numbers, just as schools across the country prepare to reopen. → https://is.gd/tNupF819:44
de-factogrmbl exactly what i am worried about19:47
de-factoopening schools is a gigantic mistake.19:48
generadoes anyone recognize the echocancelling microfone in the hodcroft link?19:49
de-factowhich one?19:50
generayep Fußball is open and already doing clashes with the police, icecream shops are open and i saw more people in the city than mon-fri, and then for good measuere, Schools19:51
generahttps://nitter.eu/pic/media%2FEuxUSCDWQAEI3EK.png%3Fname%3Dsmall19:51
de-factohmm no idea @ mic, maybe you could ask in ##hardware ?19:53
generaheh19:54
de-factoif incidence does not go down further its due to containment being insufficient, obviously we need the contrary of opening then: more strict lockdown to bring down daily new infections.19:54
BrainstormNew from NPR: White House: China And WHO Need To 'Step Up' On Investigation Into Origin Of Pandemic: National security adviser Jake Sullivan says he has concerns over the data China has provided to the World Health Organization regarding the origins of the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/tr2s7119:56
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/PUHpvLU https://i.imgur.com/2WLqJSf.png source: https://corona.rki.de/19:58
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Daily new infections by reporting date - Album on Imgur19:58
generathere has been no bund länder konferenz recently so who decided to open?19:58
de-factoso clearly the last two weekly peaks are at the same level, hence the desired decline stopped.19:59
generaeven the CWA says 7000 ++ cases and R 1.0719:59
de-factoyeah, we *urgently* need more containment, B.1.1.7 will take over and contribute the majority in begin or early March, if not contained incidence will explode right into our face20:00
de-factoi really had hoped for a better start in 2021, but unfortunately now we have to deal with this.20:00
de-factoreports for Germany (i am sure its not too different in all the other EU countries) https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Berichte-VOC-tab.html20:02
de-factobtw its not only B.1.1.7 (22.8%), its also B.1.351 (1.3%) and P.1 (0.1%) thanks to those lovely tourists being tolerated to travel around and import all the newest variants of concern.20:03
de-factoso 6 months before i even have any chance to get a vaccine the escaping variant already is at 1.3%. Lovely. Thanks a lot for that.20:05
LjLI'm fairly bummed. Lombardy has stopped distinguishing between the cases in Milan city and Milan province. And just today there was a big crowd around the Milan stadium for a stupid football match (they can't enter the stadium but apparently that doesn't stop them from crowding outside)... So like, best time to make such a choice20:05
de-factoif football matches lead to that they should be made illegal to stop this.20:06
de-factoalso people doing private party at home watching football and drinking, the classic cliche. i dont have any data but i am sure it happens even if its illegal to gather at home with friends.20:08
de-factohence why not address the cause of such problems: without any football matches, no people gathering to watch them or celebrate them.20:08
de-factofootball matches are a bad example anyhow, they give people the false impression everything is normal and there is not need to distance, the contrary is the case unfortunately.20:10
de-factoif people cant behave themselves (gathering at football matches, traveling into regions with VOCs to bring them back) such things should be made completely illegal, no traveling, no football, no gatherings at all.20:12
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +13450 cases (now 2.8 million), +232 deaths (now 95718) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +9297 cases (now 4.1 million), +215 deaths (now 120580) since 19 hours ago — Netherlands: +4637 cases (now 1.1 million) since 19 hours ago — Germany: +7175 cases (now 2.4 million), +85 deaths (now 68203) since 23 hours ago20:13
de-factoi can be 100% sure i did not import new VOCs (because I did not travel at all, stayed withing 10km of my home for over a year) and that i also did not (unknowingly) acted as a super spreader because i did not participate in any group meetings of people since the start of the pandemic20:15
de-factohence i get really angry at the problems caused by other people not sticking to sanity working together to prevent the known problems and contain the problems20:16
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: USA now vaccinating more people against COVID-19 in one day than Canada has in total (10242 votes) | https://www.cp24.com/news/usa-now-vaccinating-more-people-against-covid-19-in-one-day-than-canada-has-in-total-1.5317891 | https://redd.it/loxr8820:36
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Coinfection with influenza A virus enhances SARS-CoV-2 infectivity (82 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-021-00473-1 | https://redd.it/lp06xr20:48
gottspeedno jab no job20:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Contract between AstraZeneca and the UK has been released: It was signed AFTER the EU's one and it also contains the 'best reasoanble effort' clause that came to fame following vaccine provision delays. → https://is.gd/vIb95d20:58
de-factooh who would have thought that?21:06
gottspeedthought wha21:07
gottspeedwhat21:07
de-factoAZ contract of UK singed after EU and also with best effort clause21:08
gottspeedthe only vaccine drama im interested in centers on whether or not ill be forced to take it because the dull heaving masses deem a 99% recovery rate unacceptable.21:10
de-facto99% recovery rate cant be true if InfectionFatalityRate[age] = Exp[ Log[2] age / 5.75] / 186000 or ~ 1/6 for 85 year olds21:15
de-factoalso the impact on economy from long covid is unclear so far21:16
gottspeedPretty obvious the numbers we're getting are dubious at best.21:16
gottspeedWith stats its garbage in garbage out.21:17
de-factowe always have to work with what we get i guess, do our best from what we have21:17
gottspeedFlu is slightly worse this year, so instead of waiting it out and letting humanity adapt to a new virus, we're going to drag it out forever and rush vaccines to market that will be outdated due to weaker variants by the time the old vax rolls out.21:18
gottspeedWhen I extrapolate forward I'm not convinced that this approach is sustainable.21:18
gottspeedI mean it is if you want to live at the end of the needle every time a new virus shows up, but most people would rather take their chances if they aren't being coerced into it by relentless propaganda. Anyway that's just my opinion.21:19
de-factoi am not sure what you mean with flu, here it did not take off at all due to lockdown21:19
de-factothat humanity wont "adapt" to the new virus easily can be seen by the second severe wave of new infections happening in Manaus/Amazonas, herd immunity from natural recovery does not seem to work21:20
de-factoi agree that we probably need vaccine updates to address the problems of those new variants of concern emerging from places where high numbers of new infections are tolerated21:21
gottspeedHow many injections do you think are acceptable for you to be able to live your life?21:22
de-factowell obviously it was already tried to loosen restrictions to a point where healthcare systems almost came to their capacity at the peak points, hence just ignoring the problem does not solve it for the majority it seems21:22
gottspeedOne per year? Two? There is still no effective vaccination for the cold or influenza.21:23
de-factono infections of unknown origin are acceptable with this pathogen in my opinion21:23
de-factoand because people wont accept to agree on containment it still is present and causing problems21:24
bree33if wed been willing to just let a lot of people die we could have not shut down21:25
de-factoother countries with more strict and aggressive containment already have open bars and clubs because if there are no infections with unknown origin containment also is not necessary anymore21:25
gottspeedI fear that soon people won't be able to choose what goes in their bodies anymore. 50 years ago we had doctors saying smoking was good for you, so I kind of look at this like a big global "teenager complex" wherein people think they have it all figured out and there is nothing left to learn.21:25
bree33but yeah that too we could have had stricter lockdowns and then strict travel restrictions21:25
gottspeedScience doesn't understand how to cure my benign vertigo. Don't have the inner ear figured out.21:25
de-facto50 years ago there would not be such antivax movements, people would see it as self explanatory to get vaccinated as soon as offered21:26
gottspeedI rest my case21:27
bree33strict lockdowns and then strict travel restrictions was the best path21:27
bree33that would have been bitter medicine but then people could have lived their lives after a few months21:28
de-factoin my opinion really strict lockdowns and the most aggressive containment with complete stop of traveling would be the best approach, because it would minimize the time of impact on peoples life and economy as well by maximizing the speed by which containment brings down incidence by ending infection chains.21:30
bree33exactly21:31
de-factoi have to say Germany for example wasted a whole 2 months of time, money and resources in the winter by not having strict enough lockdown, resting at a endemic reproduction of R ~ 1 is the most stupid strategy imaginable21:31
bree33the people were resisting tho thats why21:31
de-factothe compromise always is in favor of viral reproduction, hence also against the people and economy that would have to suffer longer time under the restrictions21:32
bree33yeah no doubt21:32
bree33better leadership would have made this case well21:33
de-factothe sad thing is many countries already have demonstrated how to solve it (by strict and aggressive containment) and there still is discussion going on21:33
bree33bitter medicine21:33
de-factoobviously our compromise "lockdown light" strategy does not work, otherwise we would not deal with the problem still after one year21:33
bree33better than nothing?21:34
de-factowell no containment at all leads to even more suffering in economy and health, hence the change of strategy should go towards the proven to be successful zero-covid and zero-tolerance strategy imho21:35
bree33wut bout the 'just let a bunch of people die' strategy21:36
de-factoChina, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, etc21:37
de-factoChina had economic growth over all of 2020 even21:38
de-factowhat did our "compromise lockdown light, tolerate individualism" approach gave us? economic decline during 2020, even two digit precentages for some countries21:39
bree33as is often true of compromises it was the worst of both worlds21:39
generanight curfew doesnt sound like tolerate individums to me21:39
de-factounfortunately, it was worth a try, but at some point we would need to be honest and look at the failure of our strategy and change it accordingly21:40
bree33this could have been treated like a war and people could have been sent supplies in the mail while they stayed home21:40
bree33the thing is tho that the will of the people is not a strict lockdown and these and democracies21:41
de-factoi know it sounds unrealistic, but just think of one (theoretical) scenario: for a maximum of N people living in one household every infection chain should end after a maximum of N generation times (serial time ~ 5.2 days) or less if several household members get infected at the same time21:42
bree33right21:42
bree33what do the people with dogs do tho?21:42
de-factofor transmission a human to human contact is necessary (if its not transmitted over contaminated surfaces etc, which probably is only a very small contribution)21:44
bree33yeah but like would people be allowed to walk their dog?21:44
de-factobut in reality people not even want to step back from airtraveling into holidays even in areas with known variants of concern21:44
bree33oh yeah well that shit was nuts right21:45
bree33no reason to travel outside of one's neighborhood really21:45
de-factoi mean how come we have 1 in 100 infections in Germany with the South African variant?21:45
bree33air travel should be all but shut down21:46
de-factowe even have the Brazilian variant here in some sequences21:46
de-factoi mean i would really wish for not having the necessity to restrict people anymore but the only way i see out of this is to bring down infections to a point where no community transmission of unknown origin takes place anymore21:49
de-factoand so far the only way to do that seem to be non pharmaceutical measures, the more strict the more effective (and fast) their effect, and maybe in future up-to-date vaccinations, but that may take many months still it seems21:50
stinkpotwhy is fomite transmission negligible with coronavirus but substantial with herpes?21:53
stinkpotor i should say "why does it appear to be negligible..."21:54
de-factoidk maybe because so many more infections with SARS-CoV-2 occur via aerosol than via fomite transmissions?21:55
de-factoe.g. HSV does not transmit via aerosol hence the part transmitted via contaminated surfaces is the main contribution?21:55
stinkpothah hah maybe21:56
stinkpotbut have there been studies comparing how long herpes lives on surfaces compared to coronaviruses?21:56
de-factoafaik it was estimated by CDC that for some respiratoy diseases absolute stellar hand hygiene only reduced transmissions by ~16% or such21:56
bree33stinkpot: im reading that herpes also doesnt spread through surfaces21:57
de-factobut then if all local new infections are under control (hence no community transmissions taking place anymore) even imports from contaminated surfaces probably play a role (well as they would do for variants when human traveling stopped)21:57
stinkpotbree33: i think i was reading about a different virus now that i think about it21:58
stinkpotsorry21:58
bree33import good could be quarantined before distribution21:58
bree33import goods*21:58
stinkpotde-facto: it's probably still important to use hand sanitizer21:59
de-factobut yeah SARS-CoV-2 unfortunately seems to be quite stable on flat surfaces (such as metal etc), may remain infectious from days to weeks depending on conditions and contamination level21:59
de-factoyes absolutely21:59
de-factoits about closing all possible transmission paths, if the most probable (e.g. droplets and aerosol) are closed (e.g. my proper masks, distancing, air exchange) the main contributions would originate from the transmission paths still left open (e.g. surface contamination etc)22:01
de-factoso of course it makes sense to close all of the transmission paths at the same time to get out the most effect22:02
bree33muricans were not going to lock down like that idk bout euros22:02
de-factoto me it seems that the introduction of FFP2 masks and nighttime curfews really had an impact here in my local city, i dont have data to support that but the timelikes suggest something like that22:04
de-factoat soon as they were lifting the nighttime curfew incidence began to rise again (just 4 days later)22:05
de-factoevery store got a hand sanitizing place where people can put some alcohol on their hands, yet i am not sure if the majority uses them, i do it everytime22:06
de-factoalso mandatory FFP2 masks are a really good idea and id say almost everyone uses them now22:06
de-factobut i think its not enough, national incidence stopped its decline and local incidence already is on the rise again22:07
bree33hardly anyone wears those here22:07
de-factounfortunately :(((22:07
bree33people wear cloth or surgical masks22:08
bree33very rarely a tight sealing mask22:08
de-factohere surgical masks are also allowed, but in my city the majority seems to wear FFP2 (or N95 in US standards)22:08
LjLIt's a wholly mixed bag here22:08
bree33yeah only people working at a store might wear those22:08
de-factocotton community masks are not allowed anymore22:09
bree33even workers often just wear a cloth mask22:09
de-factoyeah indeed now that you mention it, i think more of the employees are wearing surgical for some reason22:09
bree33huh22:09
LjLUnfortunately single-use masks are causing tremendous pollution especially of the seas. Well, or people disposing of them improperly are. But being real, in Italy, even if you dispose of things properly, at least in some places, chances are high they'll somehow end up just into the sea anyway22:10
de-factoat my work the employer also only gave out surgical masks, but all employees bought FFP2 privately22:10
stinkpotnighttime curfews appear to have made things worse here, but they also coincided with the holiday season so it's hard to say22:10
de-factolet me make you a graph for our local city22:11
bree33i heard hospitals are still rationing n95s which is just wut22:13
stinkpotwtf22:15
stinkpoti'm getting tired of the US medical system22:16
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/9fUbi2h https://i.imgur.com/PQsSUsQ.png this is my local city of ~160k citizens, i made a red line at 2021-02-11 where nighttime curfew ended, incidence began to rise already from 2021-02-15 onwards unfortunately22:17
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 weekly Incidence per 100k citizens, nighttime curfew ended at 2021-02-11 - Album on Imgur22:17
de-factonow they are talking about opening the schools again, what could possibly go wrong with that?!22:18
stinkpoti'm not sure you can draw any conclusions from that22:19
stinkpotpeople have gained more confidence because of the vaccine rollout22:19
stinkpotwhich could temporarily spread the virus more, before herd immunity is reached22:20
de-factoi personally know of people going for party again as soon as curfew ended they went ahead and met their friends and got drunk22:20
de-factopeople that were sticking to the rules in curfew22:20
stinkpotyes, i know of stories like that too, but i also think curfews actually encouraged large family gatherings22:20
stinkpotat least where i live, i have a few anecdotes like that22:21
stinkpotwell, the curfews may have lengthened the family gatherings that were already going to happen22:21
stinkpotde-facto: i agree that opening schools now is premature22:22
de-factothe problem is that if people go for party they do crosslink all the social bubbles by potential cluster spread events when they meed group1 today and group2 tomorrow etc22:22
stinkpotand the worrisome thing is that big cities in the US seem to be taking cues from your country22:23
de-factook generic lockdown with curfew is a capitulation in terms of not knowing anything better to do, but then they should work on more transmission paths research for replacing lockdowns by more targeted measures that have similar impact on reproduction22:24
stinkpotyes de-facto , the potential for cluster spread events is absurdly higher at 'house parties' or whatever you call them22:24
kevin-oculusso whats the best for school strategy22:25
de-factoand tbh i am quite disappointing that we still are not there after one year, we had so many opportunities to do research on transmission paths and situations to avoid that we should be smarter than having to lock down everything because we just dont know how to do it any better22:25
stinkpotwhat we need is a mask order *AT HOME*22:26
kevin-oculuswell the lockdown are okay for public sector they can drink a beer and stil have the job but the private sector is going disaster22:26
stinkpotwe need politicians to make people wear masks around their housemates/family members and also social distance at home22:26
de-factoidk about best strategy for schools because there are no proper studies about school transmissions other than opening them leads to increase in reproduction by the order of ~24%22:26
stinkpoti know that sounds extreme but i know anecdotally of so many home spreading events among people that have large households22:27
de-factoimho testing could help, but then in a proper pattern of biweekly everyone or such? just speculating here22:27
de-factoyet we still dont have enough testing capacity to do that22:27
de-factoyeah right now with closed schools probably most of the transmission happen at hope, in the own social bubble but also i am sure a LOT of them happen at work22:28
stinkpoti wish we had gotten the order to socially distance with our housemates at home, while doing absolutely nothing outside the house22:28
stinkpotbut that would have never been ordered22:29
de-factoin open offices for example or where many workers share the same room22:29
de-facto(just speculating here, because i dont know about any proper data being collected for that)22:30
de-factosometimes i almost get the impression that people dont want data to be collected at their places (be it schools or working environments etc) just so that they would not have to deal with additional restrictions22:30
stinkpotoh yeah, i'm pretty sure big businesses around here tried to hide that data. the government collected it but i suspect that big businesses tried to keep it secret. but eventually a newspaper subpoena'd the data and forced the government to tell us that there was a lot of transmission at some grocery stores22:32
de-factoafaik now they want to open schools without any more proper concepts or studies compared to the moment where they had to close them due to too much incidence22:32
pigzuuuhttps://science.slashdot.org/story/21/02/21/0222252/pfizer-biontechs-covid-19-vaccine-just-got-a-lot-easier-to-distribute22:33
stinkpotde-facto: i think at this moment we are putting too much faith in the vaccine (and the vaccine rollout) and not respecting the virus variants enough22:35
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 9887) since 22 hours ago22:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: White House: China And WHO Need To 'Step Up' On Investigation Into Origin Of Pandemic → https://is.gd/PvW6aL22:37
de-factostinkpot, unfortunately i have to agree with you on that22:37
de-factoits never a good strategy to have all the eggs in one basket22:37
stinkpotde-facto: your city or country really silenced the virus in May-July22:37
de-factoyeah it was like that in all of Germany during the summer22:38
de-factoits weird but the curve for our little city there is almost exactly the same as for all of Germany22:38
de-factoidk why, maybe lots of traveling?22:39
stinkpotgermans are homogenous (?)22:40
stinkpotthat is rather curious22:40
stinkpotmaybe germans are very controlled by the media. that could explain how city charts look like country charts22:40
stinkpothomogeneous*22:41
de-factoits only the case for our city here, in general there were quite some differences, for example the east was not so much affected in the first wave but severely in the second wave etc22:41
de-factoi think here in my university city quite a lot of students are traveling around, so maybe that imports incidence from a big (representative) area?22:42
LjL%title https://github.com/google/exposure-notifications-internals/issues/2722:46
BrainstormLjL: From github.com: Update for version 1.8 · Issue #27 · google/exposure-notifications-internals · GitHub22:46
LjL(The person posting is the one who implemented exposure notifications in microG, well and the author of microG to begin with)22:47
de-factohmm does that mean google does not release updates to their exposure notification api?22:49
LjLWell at least some of them22:49
LjLThey didn't release the source code to the whole notifications thing when they released the thing to the public in the first place22:49
LjLThey only made a github repo later22:49
de-facto15 commits last one on Oct 2nd of 202022:49
ArsaneritExposure notifications in microgravity?  To use on the ISS?22:53
LjLO.o22:53
LjL%wik microG22:53
BrainstormLjL, from English Wikipedia: MicroG (typically styled as microG) is a free and open-source implementation of proprietary Google libraries that serves as a replacement for Google Play Services on the Android operating system. It is maintained by German developer Marvin Wißfeld. MicroG allows mobile device users to access Google mobile [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroG22:53
ArsaneritLjL: I see, thank you :)22:54
de-factoµ1e100 = 1e94 ? :P22:56
de-factobtw another question: if now BioNTech/Pfizer allow storage of their 30µg modRNA doses at higher temperatures, how does that translate to the storage time? some model of RNA length, portion of intact RNA and decay rates by Arrhenius equation (dependent on temp) giving a time estimate?23:00
de-factoe.g. decay rate ~ Exp[ E / ( kb T) ] with E being the lowest bond energy in the RNA molecule or such?23:02
stinkpotlol23:05
stinkpotdamn de-facto are you a physicist or chem engineer?23:05
de-factono comment :P23:06
stinkpotwhat is the shelf life of the biontech vax at it's recommended storage temp?23:08
stinkpotits*23:08
stinkpotis it a few days?23:09
de-factoid guess if the length of the RNA molecule doubles the probability of one defect occuring in the same window of time also doubles, hence decay rate ~ length Exp[ E / k T ] then23:09
de-facto.title https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-covid-19-vaccine-stability-data23:11
Brainstormde-facto: From investors.biontech.de: Pfizer and BioNTech Submit COVID-19 Vaccine Stability Data at Standard Freezer Temperature to the U.S. FDA | BioNTech23:11
stinkpotThe vaccine can be stored for five days at refrigerated 2-8°C conditions.23:13
de-factobefore it was 6 months at -80ºC and -60ºC (-112ºF to ‑76ºF) now the update is at -25°C to -15°C (-13°F to 5°F) for two weeks23:14
de-facto"Before mixing with a saline diluent, the vaccine may also be refrigerated for up to five days at standard refrigerator temperature, between 2⁰C and 8⁰C (36⁰F and 46⁰F)." <-- that did not change hence remained the same23:16
LjLWhat does not change does tend to remain the same23:20
BrainstormUpdates for France: +14948 cases (now 3.6 million) since 23 hours ago23:37
de-factoso yeah that makes sense if an Arrhenius model is to be employed there should occur a constant for Log[t1] T1 ~ Log[t2] T2 which is the case for above data23:54
de-factowasnt there some data in the leaked hacks from EMA about RNA decay rates?23:57

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