libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2021-04-14

diofantozclotting and low amounts of blood palets00:00
de-factothe AZ seems to be, JJJ is still investigated but MAY have similar issues, yet we dont know if the frequency is elevated in a vaccinated cohort compared to an unvaccinated control cohort00:00
finely[m]<de-facto "younger as in not elderly"> That may be an artifact of countries giving Pzifer vaccine to older populations (as it confers immunity faster) and AZ to younger populations.00:01
diofantozi thought autoimmune was when the immune system attacked a certain organ / cell type00:01
diofantozfor whatever, *unknown* reason00:02
de-facto.title https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-362354/v100:04
Brainstormde-facto: From www.researchsquare.com: A Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenic Disorder Resembling Heparin-Induced Thrombocytopenia Following Coronavirus-19 Vaccination | Research Square00:04
diofantozi guess some will be more suceptible ny chance00:04
de-facto.title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa210488200:04
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nejm.org: Thrombosis and Thrombocytopenia after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccination | NEJM00:04
de-factohttps://gth-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GTH-Statement-AstraZeneca_englisch_3-29-2021.pdf00:04
diofantozbut pinpointing it to an age group could be a start00:05
de-factothats for AZ00:05
finely[m]* Why does it need to be a company if almost all basic science research is publicly funded? Why not an NGO? Why should we pay for anything above the cost of inputs and amortised machine manufacture/maintenance?00:06
finely[m]If we have already paid for the research needed to build the technology out if our taxes, why are we granting a patent (monopoly) to a company at all?00:06
de-facto.title https://b-s-h.org.uk/about-us/news/guidance-produced-from-the-expert-haematology-panel-ehp-focussed-on-syndrome-of-thrombosis-and-thrombocytopenia-occurring-after-coronavirus-vaccination00:09
Brainstormde-facto, the URL could not be loaded00:09
de-factohttps://b-s-h.org.uk/media/19530/guidance-version-13-on-mngmt-of-thrombosis-with-thrombocytopenia-occurring-after-c-19-vaccine_20210407.pdf00:09
de-factowhut where did it goooo?00:10
de-facto.title https://b-s-h.org.uk/about-us/news/uk-switches-covid-vaccine-strategy-in-under-30s-after-thrombosis-risks-assessed/00:10
Brainstormde-facto: From b-s-h.org.uk: UK switches COVID vaccine strategy in under-30s after thrombosis risks assessed | British Society for Haematology00:10
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: North Korea could resume nuclear tests this year as a way to force President Joe Biden's administration to enter into dialogue, US intelligence experts said. "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may take a number of aggressive and potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security" → https://is.gd/5TkOi700:15
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Physical inactivity linked to more severe COVID-19 infection and death: Physical inactivity is linked to more severe COVID-19 infection and a heightened risk of dying from the disease, finds a large US study published online in the British Journal of Sports Medicine. → https://is.gd/j6cD8V00:36
de-facto.title https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/bundesweite-notbremse-188898201:03
Brainstormde-facto: From translate.google.com: Google Translate01:03
LjLde-facto: so should we expect some German equivalent of Sicily counterfeiting its numbers to stay below the threshold?01:06
kreyrenhttps://youtu.be/8cWPDeGyfXM US regulators are calling for a total pause on using johnson and johnson covid-19 due to blood cloths (reported by david pakman)01:18
kreyrenallegedly one women died and second is hospitalized in critical condition01:19
kreyrenhow can even such thing pass clinical trials?01:20
kreyreneven though it's rare01:20
kreyren6 out of 7M vaccinations01:20
BrainstormNew from ProPublica: Lessons From Bessemer: What Amazon’s Union Defeat Means for the American Labor Movement: by Alec MacGillis ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. This story was co-published with The New Yorker and is not subject to our Creative [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/jVX82901:27
LjLkreyren: uh, you answered your own question, can't you see that?01:30
kreyrentrue, but i though that clinical trials are required to be done on people of various demographics and states to ensure the safety of these no?01:31
kreyrenassuming it being for women at 18~45 it's probably something unique on them where i would think that the symptoms would be very obvious in clinical tests?01:32
LjLNo01:32
kreyrenassuming it being cerebral venous sinus thrombosis as reported01:32
kreyren(based on what i found on wiki that would be very obvious during clinical trials?)01:32
LjLIf it were something unique to women in that age range that you could see in a trial of 20000 to 40000 people, then you would have tons of women dying from this all over the place, not 1 in a million01:33
kreyrenwhat do you assume it is then?01:33
kreyrensomething on bases like drug users?01:34
LjLI don't assume anything01:35
LjLBut... like, I can't even understand what *your* reasoning is based on, sorry. Does Wikipedia say that trials find *all* rare adverse events? Are you suggesting that *all* women between 18 and 45 have something special about them, and if so, why aren't all the ones who took J&J dead? Do you think that just targeting "all demographics" is a magic wand? Everyone is an individual with a unique clinical history including their own unique genome01:37
LjLRare side effects may be *associated* with being a woman in a certain age range or whatever but it's very definitely not a 1:1 relationship01:37
LjLNote that men have been affected with AZ (I don't really know about J&J data yet)01:38
LjLTake COVID itself, we know a lot of associated factors to morbidity and mortality yet we also have young athletes dying sometimes (and old people with diabetes and hypertension surviving)01:39
LjLAlso, I just took a very common drug that is used for colds and other things that has "death" as a warning on its leaflet. I'm not concerned because what it really is about is death from excess water intake of you take it in very large doses as an antidote to paracetamol overdose... But in pretty sure some people reading "death" on it won't understand that and be worried, and that's also true for other drugs that *have* been known to rarely cause death, and01:42
LjLnot from water. And I'm not surprised because I know there's a ton of that. When they say everything is a risk/benefit calculation they mean it. You can't judge something "100% safe" for you just because you aren't in any of the known at-risk demographics. You just deem it "safe enough".01:42
LjLBtw, I don't think the US would have suspended the vaccine at this stage, with so few cases, if it weren't for the fact that the cases just look suspiciously similar to the ones with AZ, which are "much" more frequent (still very rare but a 10x-ish factor)01:57
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Moderna and Novavax vaccines to be tested in mixing vaccines trial: The Moderna and Novavax covid-19 vaccines will be added to a trial that is investigating the effect of mixing vaccines.The Com-Cov study launched in February 2021 with participants receiving... → https://is.gd/e2AAJr01:58
finely[m]<kreyren "how can even such thing pass cli"> Rare side effects could slip past trials with hundreds of thousands of people by chance.02:08
kreyrenLjL: To clarify: Based on available informations i came to the conclusion my best guess would be that people with a pre-existing thrombosis are a concern for fatality and/or issues and i find it unethical to not include more people in the trials (which based on available info were not part of the trial or were not enough) with these conditions assuming that we know that COVID-19 vaccines are causing blood cloths to some02:45
kreyrenextent.02:45
kreyrenTaking that conclusion based on informations reported about AZ's blood clot issue as well O.o02:45
LjLi had no idea the cases were people with pre-existing thrombosis.02:45
LjLthat would strike me as weird given recommendations here about AZ are to give it irrespective of thrombosis conditions02:45
kreyrenfinely: ^02:46
kreyren<LjL "i had no idea the cases were peo"> i am not saying that to be the case as the info is not available, but i was told that it was the case for AZ fatalities in CZ and SK02:47
LjLwell there are informations on cases in Austria and Germany in published studies02:47
LjLand Norway02:47
kreyrenthat are inconclusive last time i checked?02:48
LjLhttps://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa210488202:48
LjLhttps://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa210488202:48
LjLgreat i fucked up the links, i have a link to the same study twice02:48
LjLkreyren, so they are *not* conclusive that the patients had pre-existing thrombosis?02:49
LjLsorry why would you believe that you were "told" that about cases in CZ and SK over published studies that don't reach a conclusion?02:49
LjLalso i don't know how many people can sanely be managed in a trial but ~20000 seems like a lot to me02:50
LjLyou will never have enough people to encounter all possible rare side effects, unless you enroll everyone on the planet02:50
kreyrenLjL: doesn't seem conclusive to me in a sense that they do not investigate patients with thrombosis to make a decision that can be taken as factual beyond reasonable doubt..02:50
kreyrenBut i am not aware of the source you've provided.. reading02:50
kreyren> ~20000 seems like a lot to me02:51
kreyrenWould argue for 100000+ for a vaccine that is going to be taken by milions.. 20000 seems unethical to account for these rare scenarios to me02:51
LjLi've given you the Norwegian study, the German study is on more people, but i need to find the link again since i got the same link twice02:52
kreyren<LjL "sorry why would you believe that"> i don't believe what i was told i get presented data and i try to make my own conclusion02:52
* kreyren is still reading the provided paper02:52
LjLthat's just five cases though02:52
kreyren3 from those that i was studying02:53
kreyrentwo of which had pre-existing thrombosis.. that said the info is not very accurate02:54
kreyrenthe source linked is interesting02:57
kreyrenLjL: your source disproves my hypothesis unless these are obese or have some kind of blood restriction caused by X which makes them to be more likely for fatal thrombosis from the blood clots caused by the vaccine02:59
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Majority of Brazil COVID-19 ICU patients aged 40 years or younger - report → https://is.gd/wAZFu702:59
LjLkreyren, this is the bigger german study https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa210484002:59
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Fix German study link to AZ bloodclots ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/9feeae22b3950746847b297b9bd7b3f03bff6234 )03:02
kreyrenLjL: also disproves my hypothesis i don't see any relation to the pre-existing blood cloths or any condition that would make the patiens in question more likely to have fatal outcome from a blood cloth at a wrong place03:04
kreyren\>.<03:04
LjLkreyren, i didn't think so, because what they get is such a different condition from "run of the mill" blood clots...03:05
kreyrenunless there are more factors causing these symptoms, but ig it's better to vaid for CDC and stuff x.x03:05
kreyrenLjL: elaborate?03:05
LjLkreyren, the blood clotting with simultaneous low platelet count. usually they are nearly opposite conditions03:06
LjLthere is a study where they look into Pfizer and/or Moderna and find low platelet count, too, which was linked on Reddit by someone who was like "why don't they say the same about Pfizer!? they have it too!" but then the study only talked about cases of low platelet count *without* thrombosis. thrombosis or blood clotting were never mentioned03:07
LjLso instead, people who have both have blood clots *and* hemorrhages, which is quite devastating03:07
LjLand if you try to cure one, you worsen the other03:07
* kreyren is reading the study03:08
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : Fix German study link to AZ bloodclots: I had linked to the Norwegian study twice instead → https://is.gd/nPnq0Z03:10
kreyrenLjL: like internal bleeding or hemorrhage in what sense ?03:11
LjLinternal bleeding, often in the brain03:11
kreyrenhemorrhage caused by what? I am either blind or the study doesn't mentiones the cause03:13
kreyrenit seems to suggest that the hemorrhage is caused by blood clot blocking a vein that has a high amount of blood flowing causing it to burst ?03:14
LjLkreyren, pathologically low platelet count would easily lead to hemorrhage03:15
kreyreni see, didn't know that03:16
LjLat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heparin-induced_thrombocytopenia which is perhaps the closest known thing to what's happening with AZ, it says "Transfusing platelets is discouraged, as a theoretical risk indicates that this may worsen the risk of thrombosis; the platelet count is rarely low enough to be the principal cause of significant hemorrhage.[9]"03:17
LjLbut my understanding is internal bleeding has occurred in at least some of the AZ cases03:18
kreyreni am not sure whether the low paletet count measured at the time reported is relevant to the hemorrhage, the way it's reported makes me think that it's people with low paletet count having a higher risk for blood cloths that then cause hemorrhage which seems to be the cause of fatality?03:20
kreyrenso not low-paletet induced hemorrhage i don't think?03:21
kreyrenas that would indicate that the vaccine is causing lower paletet count?03:21
* kreyren can feel his brain stopping to work due to the sleep deprevation and goes to sleep before he says something stupid x.x03:24
LjLkreyren, low platelet counts (thrombocytopenia) normally isn't a cause of thrombosis. in fact it means you don't *have* enough of the things in the blood that can cause thrombosis (but which are also the things that let your blood clot when actually needed, meaning anything can turn into a dangerous hemorrhage)03:25
LjLthey don't normally have a higher risk of blood clot at all03:25
LjLif anything it's lower, except they have higher risk of bleeding03:25
LjL%tell de-facto: "And then Gamaleya is a two-shot regimen, one with Ad5 and the other with Ad26, with the Spike mutations. Update: it’s not clear, actually, if that one does, so for the time being we’ll assume that it’s just wild-type Spike. (Both mRNA vaccines have the stabilizing mutations as well, for the record)." (Derek Lowe)03:26
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass de-facto your message when they are around.03:26
kreyrenLjL: The study says that those are "immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia mediated by platelet-activating antibodies" so i think that this is just particle encased by white blood cells with a layer of blood clot as a cover which would make me think that the risk of hemorrhage would be lower unless the patient has a condition that is causing him micro-internal bleeding that the body can't repair as a result of the vaccine?03:32
kreyrenBut that doesn't make sense assuming that wiki says that emergency treatment is below 50 000 so all of the patients with thrombocytopenia (assumed that being <50 000 mm3) has the risk of fatal hemorrhage ?03:32
kreyrenso does that mean that the covid vaccine lowers the platelet count to these dangerous levels of was that pre-existing ?03:32
kreyrenas i don't see in the research mentioned patients having any kind of medication on thrombocytopenia -> it's caused by the vaccine?03:33
LjLthrmnbocytopenia can be symptomless03:33
LjLwe don't really know if it's caused by the vaccine, but so far i think that has been the working hypothesis03:33
kreyrenah tehre is not treatment to thrombocytopenia03:33
kreyrenx.x03:33
kreyrenah there are immunosuppressants?03:33
LjLsure there is, give them platelets03:34
kreyren<LjL "we don't really know if it's cau"> i see03:34
LjLimmunosuppressants?03:34
kreyrenyes according to the wiki?03:34
LjLwhich thrombocytopenia are you talking about? HIT is not the same as "regular" thrombocytopenia03:34
LjLthrombocytopenia means having not enough platelets in your blood03:35
LjLit can be for a number of reasons03:35
kreyrentbh from things that i found on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrombocytopenia as i am not too familiar with thrombocytopenia03:35
LjLin the case of HIT, and in the case of the AZ side effect, it's due to an antibody that shouldn't normally be around03:35
kreyreni see03:35
LjL(which is what the German and Norwegian researchers found, we didn't know this before)03:35
LjLso that's the similarity with HIT, both are caused by the body unexpectedly producing an antibody that doesn't play well with platelets03:36
* kreyren is even more confused about what hypothesis to make03:36
kreyrenSo the antibody reacts with platelets that is causing lower count of them?03:37
LjLprobably03:37
LjLmy understanding is we get an "artificially" lower count, because platelets are binding to these antibodies, and activating03:38
LjLso while, normally, a low platelet count means your blood doesn't clot *enough*03:38
LjLin this case (both HIT and AZ side effects) you're not seeing platelets because they're bound to these antibodies, and, uh, busy clotting your blood03:38
kreyrenso can we cut into a people who had J&J in the last week and see if their blood colagulates ?03:38
LjLthey've looked at several hundreds (at least) suspect cases with AZ. i expect the same to be in progress with J&J03:39
LjLi'm sure the minimum they do is a coagulation test03:39
kreyrenhttps://youtu.be/qa5Ypf_OmKk?t=141 interesting03:39
LjLkreyren, yes, he's describing the same thesis that the German and Norwegian researchers made. PF4 is the targeted thing03:41
kreyrenyep03:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil digging graves around the clock as it faces possible worst month yet of COVID crisis → https://is.gd/kmRCXj03:51
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @CarolynBertozzi: RT by @Dereklowe: Check out this piece on N1-Me-pseudouridine, the C-glycoside that made mRNA vaccines possible. Thanks to Kellie Nance and @doc_jlmeier for this contribution @ACSCentSci and congrats to Jordan on 2021 Eli Lilly Award! → https://is.gd/9jFjcl04:32
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Brazil Senate pushes forward with probe of Bolsonaro’s COVID-19 response → https://is.gd/kQKcEV04:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US pauses use of J&J vaccine over rare blood clots, rollout delayed in Europe → https://is.gd/5VRTVm05:24
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US FDA to scrutinize vaccine design behind COVID-19 shots linked to blood clots → https://is.gd/vP3Vy705:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘A tsunami of cases’: desperation as Covid second wave batters India → https://is.gd/HZp1Lo06:05
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: UK trial on switching COVID-19 vaccines adds Moderna and Novavax shots → https://is.gd/J6ewaK06:48
finely[m]<kreyren "so does that mean that the covid"> The expert interviewed in the first 15 minutes of this podcast describes the platelets being used up (leading to low levels) and becoming more sticky.07:18
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Did spotlighting a rare potential vaccine side effect put more at risk? → https://is.gd/hyapXr07:19
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Some children with COVID-related syndrome develop neurological symptoms → https://is.gd/kHrY6h08:21
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | April 14, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/w3YpSC09:02
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Physical inactivity linked to more severe COVID-19 infection, death: Study → https://is.gd/1KAvB509:23
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Germany to give different second jab to AstraZeneca recipients under 60: People aged under 60 who have been given a first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine in Germany will receive a different jab for their second dose, federal and regional health ministers agreed Tuesday. → https://is.gd/bEy3Kw09:44
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Clot questions over AstraZeneca and J&J vaccine: The AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines have come under suspicion of causing very rare but serious blood clots in a handful of cases among the millions vaccinated in the drive to bring the pandemic under control. → https://is.gd/ALowfp09:54
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Quarter of [UK] Covid deaths not caused by virus, new figures show → https://is.gd/QYUJOH10:14
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Looking back at 15 years of sharing viral genomes to forge ahead: Covid-19 could become the perfect justification to maximize the potential of the data we are generating to discover novel interactions that can support real-time decision-making. These discoveries can also serve… → https://is.gd/qh1ERO10:45
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Event: Public stakeholder meeting: approval, safety monitoring and impact of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, Virtual meeting, 13:00 - 15:15 (CET), from 26/03/2021 to 26/03/2021 → https://is.gd/14qfUY11:15
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India's new coronavirus cases hit record; Mumbai prepares for lockdown → https://is.gd/0ce11611:47
kreyren> <@finely:matrix.org> The expert interviewed in the first 15 minutes of this podcast describes the platelets being used up (leading to low levels) and becoming more sticky.12:07
kreyren> https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct1ytz12:07
kreyrennoted thanks12:07
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: How AstraZeneca lost the vaccine PR war: Hailed as a “vaccine for the world” with its low price and easy storage requirements, AstraZeneca’s vaccine candidate has faced a string of setbacks in 2021 with questions over effectiveness,... → https://is.gd/Vdfqe212:08
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Is the second wave of COVID affecting more children? Find out here → https://is.gd/5EmKK312:29
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Czech Republic: Obesity is big factor in fight against COVID-19 → https://is.gd/SXo5LI12:50
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Veterinary medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Enteroporc Coli, Neonatal piglet colibacillosis vaccine (recombinant, inactivated), Date of authorisation: 06/01/2021, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/e9oHwP13:00
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine - media → https://is.gd/8QmDIl13:21
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country: The downloadable data file is updated daily and contains the latest available public data on COVID-19. Each row/entry contains the number of new cases and deaths reported per day and per country in the EU/EEA. → https://is.gd/tBASDi13:42
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: Johnson & Johnson Vaccine and Blood Clots: Reports of blood clots with the J&J vaccine are very similar to AstraZeneca, with a similar dilemma. The post  first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/bqms5n14:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Denmark to permanently stop using AstraZeneca vaccine → https://is.gd/4XZj5c14:24
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 12 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-12/16611 )14:25
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Air pollution may affect severity and hospitalization in COVID-19 patients with respiratory disease: Patients who have preexisting respiratory conditions such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and live in areas with high levels of air pollution have a greater chance of hospitalization if they contract [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cBT6I614:45
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Patients of women doctors more likely to be vaccinated against the flu: New UCLA research suggests that elderly patients of female physicians are more likely than those of male physicians in the same outpatient practice to be vaccinated against the flu. → https://is.gd/ByuBLa15:38
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: How to help nursing homes recover from COVID-19 fears: Two weeks after the first U.S. case of COVID-19 was identified in Snohomish County, Washington, in early 2020, my dad had a stroke at his home just across Puget Sound. More COVID-19 cases were about to surface at a nearby skilled nursing facility, marking the beginning of a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xN8m1H15:59
BrainstormNew from ScienceNews: A coronavirus epidemic may have hit East Asia about 25,000 years ago: An ancient viral outbreak may have left a genetic mark in East Asians that possibly influences their responses to the virus that causes COVID-19. → https://is.gd/HWTfFJ16:10
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Millions Flock To Hindu Festival Amid Coronavirus Spike - Almost 3 million Hindu pilgrims have bathed in the Ganges River as part of this year's Kumbh Mela festival, raising concerns that the festival could become a super spreader event. → https://is.gd/WM7ncW16:30
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Global COVID-19 wrap: Denmark ditches AstraZeneca shot; Putin receives second vaccine jab → https://is.gd/P7Zdvh16:41
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): A Randomized, Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multiple Ascending Dose Phase 2a Study of SLV213 in Ambulatory Individuals Positive for COVID-19 → https://is.gd/WVd5DR17:03
de-factoLjL, this paper says Sputnik employs native "wuhan" style spike-glycoprotein without the two prefusion stabilizing point mutations https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.31.21254660v217:26
Brainstormde-facto: At 2021-04-14 01:26:59 UTC, LjL told you: "And then Gamaleya is a two-shot regimen, one with Ad5 and the other with Ad26, with the Spike mutations. Update: it’s not clear, actually, if that one does, so for the time being we’ll assume that it’s just wild-type Spike. (Both mRNA vaccines have the stabilizing mutations as well, for the record)." (Derek Lowe)17:26
de-factouhm correction: preprint17:27
de-factoi guess its pretty clear now that the SA variant B.1.351 will be the breakthrough VoC that will remain after current vaccination campaigns are completed17:29
de-factowhy are vaccines not updated right now, before we have outdated signatures in everyones immunity?17:32
de-factothe vaccination campaign in Europe pretty much did not reach any significant numbers yet, so if we would not switch to an updated signature it may be prevented that B.1.351 will be the next winters strain17:33
de-factoDidnt they have in the contract that vaccine doses delivered must be effective? well if we know they are not effective against B.1.351 why cant manufacturers be FORCED to update their vaccines?17:34
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 Subcutaneously and Orally Administered Supplemental Vaccine Boost to Enhance T Cell Protection in Those Who Have Already Received EUA S-Based Vaccines → https://is.gd/8YVYgk17:35
LjLde-facto: no, I don't think they did. They were *saying* they would try to put that in *new* contracts. Also it's not really true that the vaccination campaign hasn't reached significant numbers... It's lagging behind for sure but more than 13 million people have received a dose in Italy, and importantly (almost) all over 80s have and a significant number of over 70, which is very significant since they were the bulk of hospitalizations17:42
de-factoyes, what i mean is that we still have a long way to herd immunity levels of immunization hence my wish to do so with up-to-date antigen-signatures17:44
weeep[m]"The Amish have achieved 90% herd immunity with no masks, no vaccines, and no lock downs" https://www.fox29.com/news/amish-community-in-lancaster-county-reaches-herd-immunity-from-covid-19-medical-center-says17:44
weeep[m]you do not need vaccines for herd immunity. source: observable reality17:45
de-factoi thought manaus brazil was the counter-example17:45
weeep[m]if you re-forumulate the vaccine, all the trial data becomes worthless.17:45
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/TxaZ6s17:45
de-factonot really, because for example the platform itself did not change17:47
de-factothe problem with natural herd immunity is that immunity levels vary wildly and may wane off quite quickly, so its not nearly as predictable as with vaccinations, but the immunity by natural recovery itself may be "broader" in a sense of also including immune response against other parts of the virus than only the s-protein17:48
de-factoyet its the immunity against the s-protein that prevents the virions from infecting cells17:48
weeep[m]the problem with highly experimental gene therapies that have zero long term data and no FDA approval is the latest studies show it actually makes you more susceptible to adverse outcomes vs unvaccinated people17:49
weeep[m]https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/ccp-virus-variant-affects-vaccinated-people-more-than-unvaccinated-people-study_3770982.html17:50
de-factoso possibly natural immunity may wane off quicker but be broader (less specific) than immunity by vaccinations, if that means more or less immunity against new mutations may not only depend on point of time for re-challenge with a new mutation of the pathogen17:50
de-factoits not gene therapy, the vaccines do NOT change any genes17:50
weeep[m]it's not a vaccine.17:51
de-factothey only *temporarily* instruct a cell to produce the version of antigen (s-protein) that they encode, after a few hours to a few days the mRNA is all removed17:51
weeep[m]it does not confer immunity17:51
de-factosure it does, as can be seen in the trials17:51
weeep[m]a vaccine would be an immunzation, which would confer immunity.17:51
de-factoso what do they measure with efficacy in the trials?17:52
weeep[m]the trials merely showed it COULD reduce the most severe symptoms17:52
de-factoany symptoms, especially severe ones17:52
de-factoand there are also newer studies showing that for the variants without the evasive mutations vaccinations also prevent infection without symptoms pretty efficiently17:53
de-factowe will observe now what happens when they reopen in Israel17:55
weeep[m]have you checked the funding section of the studies?17:55
de-factomy guess would be that vaccinations prevent reinfeciton/transmission/asympt. infection with the variants that have similar s-protein, but possibly not so well for evasive mutations such as south african B,1,351 VoC17:56
LjL"CCP virus variant"17:56
LjLwant to be shown the door or can you find it on your own?17:56
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): ACTIV-3b: Therapeutics for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 → https://is.gd/c2DASa17:56
weeep[m]don't like epochtimes? ok. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/11/covid-variant-from-south-africa-was-able-to-break-through-pfizer-vaccine-in-israeli-study.html17:57
weeep[m]here you go17:57
weeep[m]can you remind me which news sources are approved in this channel?17:58
LjLthat's a completely different claim from "it actually makes you more susceptible to adverse outcomes vs unvaccinated people"17:58
LjLit lets the virus through more17:58
LjLit is less effective17:58
de-factobtw they did not read that paper properly, vaccination did reduce infection with ALL variants, but for some variants more than for others17:58
LjLit doesn't make you any *worse* from it than you would normally have17:58
LjLa news source that calls the virus "CCP virus" is definitely not approved, and using it, as well as the rest of your tone, just makes you not approved17:59
weeep[m]nice, so what do you call the spanish flu in this server?17:59
de-factothat means that the proportions for each variant contribution to breakthrough infections change, the evasive VoCs therefore are much less reduced than the variants without evasive mutations17:59
LjLwe call it the weeep flu18:00
LjLalso as you surely know, it didn't originate in spain18:00
LjLso let's be done with bad faith arguing18:00
weeep[m]no one is arguing. just looking for an education on the correct naming conventions, since there seems to be some double standards being applied.18:01
de-factoofficial name is SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19.18:01
bin_bashthere are no dounle standards at this time18:01
LjLcalling the vaccines "gene therapies" and denying that they're vaccines (it's true, the original trials only looking at symptoms, but that doesn't rule out lessened infectiousness at all, and that is in fact being reinforced more and more by later observations) is also not okay here18:02
LjLbut i don't have a full list of what is not okay here18:02
weeep[m]thanks for the tips. I was under the impression naming a newly discovered viral pathogen using the name of country that is the first to go public with a case is ok. guess times change18:02
LjLnor do i intend to hold people like you who are just full of it by hand18:03
bin_bashweeep[m]: yes, times changed about 20 years ago.18:03
LjLweeep[m], in 1918 there was no internet, so let me help you here, but not before giving you a present that made me smile a little <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pentagon reveals microchip under skin that detects Covid before symptoms show → https://is.gd/S3GJSa18:03
bin_bashThere's been pushback against called the Spanish FLu such for many years. Granted, I still call it that and I still sometimes jokingly say WuFlu but like that's not the real or appropriate name18:03
LjLalso i suspect nobody cares much anymore whether it's called spanish flu because it's not like we're still actively blaming spaniards for it18:07
bin_bashyeah18:08
bin_bashthat said, i think it is important to actually consider the chinese origin18:09
bin_bashi know it isnt politically correct but... i dont really care18:09
bin_bashthere are new viruses being discovered in that area right now constantly18:09
LjLbin_bash, some older viruses also came from that area, like the plague, afaik. there could be many reasons for it, but i would say in general i'd concentrate on any country or area (think Brazil) where nature is being very quickly and very aggressively eradicated18:11
LjLas to China, i think it's pretty ridiculous to dance around the fact it probably came from their lab the way the WHO does18:11
LjLbut i don't think this weeep individual was here for anything but a veeeeery political agenda18:12
bin_bashoh agreed18:12
bin_bashim not defending weeep in any way18:12
bin_bashbut yeah, my issue is with the way the WHO is handling things and their political nature18:12
bin_bashthey have no credibility anymore18:12
LjLit's always the same hallmarks: CCP, vaccine = gene therapy, then diverting the attention from such assertions by saying something unrelated instead of elaborating on *how* it is gene therapy when someone tells you what it really does and how it is not... asking "what are approved news sources" when i never even indicated i had a problem with the source (although i do) but only with it ridiculously calling it a "CCP virus"18:13
LjLlots of stuff that's just more of the same18:13
bin_bashyup18:13
bin_bashit's tiring18:13
LjL<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Denmark becomes 1st European nation to completely shun AstraZeneca COVID vaccine → https://is.gd/IzfjpC18:16
BrainstormNew from Trevor Bedford: @trvrb: R to @trvrb: On one hand, convergence would suggest that in ~1-2 year's time SARS-CoV-2 will have arrived at its destination having stacked up all the relevant mutations that are currently emerging. 13/15 → https://is.gd/WwkCU518:17
LjLde-facto, the thread above is sort of related to some of the things you've been wondering18:20
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid jab could be required for England care home staff: Nearly half of all older adult care homes do not meet recommended vaccine thresholds, the government says. → https://is.gd/Uy4yor18:28
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Russia says Sputnik V vaccine does not cause blood clots: The developer of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine said Wednesday its jab did not cause blood clots, a potential side effect that has disrupted rollouts in several Western countries. → https://is.gd/6CmD4R18:39
LjLah okay, whew, if they say that, despite using the same adenovirus as J&J... i feel much better now18:40
de-factoi wish we had the sequences18:43
de-factoLjL, yeah interesting twitter thread above, indeed its the question where those antigenic drifts converge towards and at which speed. its hard to estimate i guess with a highly dynamic interplay of evasive mutations provoking new immune responses and vise versa18:46
de-factoi guess the closer the antigen-signatures in the vaccines reflect the currently circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2 the smaller the probability of some breakthrough evasive mutants surviving a recovery and transmit to the next host for a new iteration of their optimization18:49
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Racial/ethnic disparities vary in COVID-19 hospitalization: (HealthDay)—Geographic and temporal differences were identified in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 hospitalization levels during 2020, according to research published in the April 12 early-release issue of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/10EJFN18:49
de-factobtw what are paperpile.com links? they seem all to end up in a dead end forme18:51
de-factoi hate such platforms18:51
de-factoseems like another attempt to profit on public funded research18:52
LjLit looks like something similar to Zotero18:52
LjLexcept probably not open source18:52
de-factojust reading the paper i linked about sputnik and it got a lot of paperpile.com references, when i click on them its a dead end, they want me to install an extension (which i did) yet it does not work18:53
de-factoi hate that, why cant they just link to the proper dois18:53
de-factohttps://paperpile.com/c/qmAci5/ZRoS "You cannot view or change the references of this document" well THANKS paperpile.com BS18:54
LjL:\18:55
de-factonote to myself: never ever use paperpile its a pay-trap.18:56
LjLespecially when there is zotero18:56
DrMarcellusGold[The Great Reset is real and it is coming. I am speaking fact and I am speaking truth. By 2030, the entire world will be changed. The WEF dictatorship will dictate what you get to do and what you don’t get to do. This is all being planned. SARS COV-218:57
DrMarcellusGold[Is an excuse.18:57
DrMarcellusGold[Thank you.18:57
DrMarcellusGold[-Dr Gold, PhD18:57
de-factolol18:58
LjLgroan19:02
ketasare you in pain19:05
LjLpsychologically19:05
finely[m]<LjL "it's always the same hallmarks: "> Almost like they are working off a script in a troll farm?19:09
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: One good way to help beat COVID-19: Exercise: (HealthDay)—Exercise guards against a host of chronic diseases that can plague people as they age, but can it also protect against severe cases of COVID-19? → https://is.gd/rRnwH119:10
LjLfinely[m], i don't necessarily think that. think "memes" (in the more psychological theory term way)19:11
finely[m]<de-facto "just reading the paper i linked "> Shit, don't do that. The internet research agency uses bait links to install malware as part of their disinfo campgains.19:12
finely[m]<LjL "finely, i don't necessarily thin"> Whether someone is directly working for a disinfo campaign or just repeating the campaigns talking points, the result is the same - bad ideas spread and they harm people.19:15
de-factoyeah i meant a chrome extension, it should be sandboxed19:15
de-factobut still you are right, i will just go a way when i see paperpile in the future19:16
finely[m]Glad you have some protection at least. Probably best not to rely on browser sandboxing too much.19:17
de-factoyeah19:17
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Il Presidente Draghi avvia i primi incontri sul PNRR ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/il-presidente-draghi-avvia-i-primi-incontri-sul-pnrr/16613 )19:20
LjLhttp://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil;Italy&byPopulation=yes  would you guess something is happening in Brazil other than just hospital resource exhaustion?19:31
LjLit's tracking Italy's amount of infection, but the deaths are another story (and Italy already tends to have more deaths per case than many other countries)19:32
de-factowell Brazil got its new P.1 and P.2 VoCs spreading fast, afaik all over south america, hence probably global19:41
de-factonot sure but i think I have seen P.1 in Italy too in some datasets, but probably not nearly as much contribution to new infections as in south america19:41
de-factoi guess in all of Europe its B.1.1.7 until vaccinations dampen its spread down, then the other VoCs will come up, namely B.1.351 and P.119:42
de-factothe graphs looking similar in cummulative mode just means they share the same slope, hence their daily incidence is about the same level http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil;Italy&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes19:45
LjLyes, same incidence, but not at all same incidence of *deaths*19:48
LjLthat is my point... so is P.1 or P.2 more fatal?19:48
de-factoyeah i think i have read they have increased mortality too, but its always very difficult to make direct comparison19:50
de-factoincidence depends on testing, hospitalizations and fatal outcomes on medical system load19:51
DunceCotusskincreased motility19:51
LjLand yet we often see incidence "merging" in disparate countries, when there is not an obvious spike or an obvious flattening19:51
LjLthat's something i've noticed a few times19:51
LjLDunceCotus, hmm?19:51
DunceCotusskincidence19:52
LjLmeaning?19:52
DunceCotusmoaning19:52
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Deaths outpace births in some Brazilian cities, as Covid-19 resurges → https://is.gd/zgATbB19:52
de-factoso i would assume Italy and Brazil numbers are not directly comparable in those numbers as in being different countries, having different testing strategies and medical systems19:53
de-factoincidence patterns matching might mean either a lot of exchange between two countries or both being under the influence of same cofactors of epidemiological relevance such as seasonality or new mutations etc19:55
de-factoi doubt that either would be the case for Italy on northern hemisphere and Brazil on southern hemisphere, both having different VoCs etc19:56
de-factoi mean what would Italy and Brazil have in common?19:56
LjLi don't know19:58
LjLand yet after ~19 December, their curves go up and down together19:58
de-factobtw is there a lot of traveling between Italy and South America?19:59
de-factoi was a bit surprised that P.1 was found in Italy20:00
LjLtraveling from Brazil is not allowed at this time, but it was allowed for enough time while the variant was breeding20:00
de-factono idea about the prevalence though, are there representative numbers for contributions by VoCs in Italy?20:01
LjLno20:01
de-factoso the P.1 could just have been a cluster or really some sort of background variant20:01
de-factohttps://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=P.120:02
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 in combination with hemorrhagic stroke doubles death risk: COVID-19 and hemorrhagic stroke are a deadly combination, increasing the risk of death up to 2.4 times among patients who have this pairing compared to those who only had hemorrhagic strokes, according to a nationwide study led by University of Utah Health [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/VAL1H220:03
de-factohttps://imgur.com/a/8sXfUpp https://i.imgur.com/BbTfY8s.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-04-14.pdf?__blob=publicationFile20:19
de-facto.title20:19
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany 2021: Incidence Contribution by Pangolin Lineage over time - Album on Imgur20:19
de-factoThe big red B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2-VoC is the UK mutant dominating all other variants (their contribution shrinks)....20:21
de-facto...except...20:21
de-factothe small green stripe that also grows, its the B.1.351 SARS-CoV-2-VoC that is the South African mutant20:22
de-factosince vaccinations seem to be effective against B.1.1.7 its contribution to new infections probably will slowly decline in the summer20:23
de-factobut not for B.1.351 for which the current gen vaccinations are much less effective (but still limit its spread to some degree)20:23
de-factohence i would expect that with approaching herd immunity with the old vaccines we will see B.1.351 dominating20:24
de-factowhich is not so good news20:25
de-factodo we know the stats about the severity of progressions of breakthrough B.1.351 in fully vaccinated?20:25
de-factohopefully B.1.351 will only make mostly mild infections in fully vaccinated?20:26
BrainstormNew from NPR: Denmark Drops AstraZeneca Vaccine, Citing Rare Side Effects, Epidemic 'Under Control': The Danish Health Authority said it will continue its vaccination campaign without the shot made by AstraZeneca, but said its benefits outweigh the risks for those who do get it. → https://is.gd/tu7cFy20:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's P1 coronavirus variant mutating, may become more dangerous: study → https://is.gd/7ijr1620:54
LjLde-facto, "On Tuesday, France suspended all flights to and from Brazil in a bid to prevent the variant’s spread as Latin America’s largest economy becomes increasingly isolated."20:56
LjLas usual, it's not very useful if Italy has no flights with Brazil, but France does20:56
LjL(or did until a week ago)20:56
LjL<CarlSagan_> [Ars Technica - Science] The very common vaccine ingredient at the center of J&J, AstraZeneca drama https://arstechnica.com/?p=1756985 2021-04-14T18:30:2121:03
de-factowell its never too late to inhibit the spread of mutants, the fewer imported the better they can be contained21:14
LjLsure21:15
LjLexcept no one is attempting to contain anything21:15
LjLQuoting myself elsewhere:21:16
LjLThis idiot who is the president of Campania wants to override the national vaccine priorities (i.e. old people) and vaccinate everyone in the touristy islands instead "because otherwise we'll just give away tourists to Spain and Greece, is it so hard to get?"21:16
LjLand meanwhile we get vaccinated with adenoviruses, which have already been shown to problematically make the matter worse if you're already immune to them21:18
LjLi'm really not a fan of any of this21:18
de-factomaybe they should try sniffing the adenovirus as its "natural" for it to cause respiratory diseases instead of injecting it?21:25
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 13 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-13/16622 )21:25
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 13 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-13/16623 )21:25
BrainstormNew from Politico: EU picks vaccine sides for future pandemic fight: The EU technically now has enough doses to vaccinate the whole adult population roughly 6.5 times. → https://is.gd/AC4ChS21:46
kreyrenhttps://youtu.be/GIfzd_lJDhU21:48
kreyrenUK doctor doing a vlog about the J&J vaccine with this findings21:48
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: More COVID state shutdowns unlikely, despite CDC suggestion: When one of the nation's top health officials this week suggested states dealing with a spring spike of coronavirus cases should "shut things down," the remark landed with a thud. → https://is.gd/wHJ2bR22:07
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: The Brazil variant: what we know: The "Brazil variant"—a more contagious mutation of the coronavirus that emerged in the Amazon late last year—is fueling fears the pandemic could flare anew, leading several countries to suspend flights from Brazil. → https://is.gd/lbSTCt22:17
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Most young people eager for COVID-19 vaccine, poll shows: As older teens and young adults become eligible for COVID-19 vaccination across the country, and younger teens await their turn, new survey data suggest a strong readiness that has grown since fall. → https://is.gd/DFqQyT22:37
finely[m]Maybe the confusion about vaccines = gene therapy come from that fact an adenovirus has been used in a failed gene therapy attempt.22:49
finely[m]https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04/the-very-common-vaccine-ingredient-at-the-center-of-jj-astrazeneca-drama/22:49
de-factohmm if using the Ad26 vector for SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations now, would that make it ineffective for usage of by https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-european-commission-approval-for-janssens-preventive-ebola-vaccine  ?23:20
de-factoi mean if antibodies against Ad26 are already present in a big part of a population, would such an Ebola vaccine even be effective anymore?23:20
de-factoid guess not really23:20
LjLfinely[m]: intentional confusion, if anything, especially since the accusation is most often directed towards mRNA vaccines... as presumably people already understands them as some sort of magical genome insertion23:21
LjLde-facto: they'll just have to find another adenovirus, make it a bit more expensive due to the additional research, and hope they didn't pick just the wrong adenovirus that will cause bad immune reactions23:25
de-factoyeah of course, i just meant it in the light of their recently received approval23:27
de-factofrom the arstechnica article23:29
de-facto"Still, Ertl has some doubts about these hypotheses. “Adenoviruses are extremely common and we have more than 50 serotypes that can infect humans,” she notes to Ars. “Most humans get adenoviruses over and over and over.” In all of her research and literature searches, she found no references of these blood clots after natural adenovirus infection. “So that makes me wonder about this particular explanation… Why on23:29
de-facto Earth does this only happen after you give it as a vaccine, but not after a natural infection?”"23:29
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Every adult is vaccinated in Fair Isle, the UK's remotest island community → https://is.gd/JFG06323:30
de-factowell would adenovirus ever be expected to be found in blood during its natural infection e.g. respirator or gastro-intestinal tract?23:30
de-factowhat if small amounts would enter the blood stream during vaccination and trigger platelet activation or such?23:31
de-factoor maybe in very rare cases also non-small amounts? (not sure thats speculation, yet still i would like to know what speaks against that suspicion)23:31
de-factowhat would happen if the the current form of adenovirus vector vaccines would be sprayed into the nose?23:41
de-factoi know crazy idea, but i am curious, would it provoke any immune response?23:41
de-factothe adenoviruses normally would cause some form of mild cold or such23:41
de-factoso why should they not be able to infect the mucus membrane in the nasal and pharyngeal region and force cells to produce the s-protein just like sars-cov-2 would do?23:42
de-factomaybe that even would be more effective because it would place immune response in the same entry region where also sars-cov-2 would enter?23:42
de-factoand maybe it also would not cause any blood clot issues or thrombocytopenia or such?23:43
de-factoi know a lot of speculation, i wonder if any trials were made, e.g. with apes and adenovirus vectors23:44
de-factoor even humans23:44
de-factoprobably not too dangerous if the same adenovirus would only cause a common cold when it was non-replication-deficient23:45

Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!