| DocScrutinizer05 | https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/coronavirus-mutante-b117-daten-1.5197700 | 00:02 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Education Dept. Launches First Federal Effort To Track School Reopening: For the first time since the pandemic began, the U.S. Education Department will begin tracking where schools have reopened and just how unequal the access to learning has been. → https://is.gd/to1yKr | 00:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | wow they edited the article :-o | 00:06 |
| lazysundaydreams | %cases Russia | 00:09 |
| Brainstorm | lazysundaydreams: In Russia, there have been 3.9 million confirmed cases (2.7% of the population) and 75732 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 13 hours ago. 103.7 million tests were performed (3.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Russia for time series data. | 00:09 |
| lazysundaydreams | %cases Ukraine | 00:09 |
| Brainstorm | lazysundaydreams: In Ukraine, there have been 1.3 million confirmed cases (3.0% of the population) and 23898 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 13 hours ago. 6.3 million tests were performed (19.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Ukraine for time series data. | 00:10 |
| lazysundaydreams | %cases India | 00:10 |
| Brainstorm | lazysundaydreams: In India, there have been 10.8 million confirmed cases (0.8% of the population) and 154823 deaths (1.4% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 199.9 million tests were performed (5.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 00:10 |
| genera | edited? | 00:11 |
| lazysundaydreams | ? | 00:11 |
| lazysundaydreams | %cases USA | 00:12 |
| Brainstorm | lazysundaydreams: In United States, there have been 27.0 million confirmed cases (8.2% of the population) and 463398 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of now. 318.7 million tests were performed (8.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20States for time series data. | 00:12 |
| genera | <DocScrutinizer05> wow they edited the article :-o | 00:12 |
| genera | gut the article is still online | 00:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | first version https://i.imgur.com/0K566Nr.png edited version https://i.imgur.com/ep9JHIU.png | 00:16 |
| genera | that is not even the same article anymore )) anyway, time to sleep | 00:19 |
| de-facto | i think its a very well written article in sueddeutsche | 00:23 |
| de-facto | interesting website, got a lot of data also for example this https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-vaccine-pfizer-effects | 00:38 |
| de-facto | .title | 00:38 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covid.joinzoe.com: Hereâs what we know so far about the after effects of the Pfizer COVID vaccine | 00:38 |
| LjL | "We found that previous exposure to coronavirus makes it more likely that someone will experience systemic effects after vaccination." | 00:44 |
| LjL | on the one hand, that's not surprising given there are also more effects after then 2nd jab | 00:44 |
| LjL | but on the other hand it could make the decision to vaccinate people who have been infected questionable | 00:45 |
| LjL | i forget who it was that strongly argued against doing that...? | 00:45 |
| LjL | also saying people should be given an antibody test to decide whether they receive the jab, to save vaccine | 00:45 |
| LjL | just yesterday or so i was talking about that, and i already don't remember :\ | 00:47 |
| pigzuu | how long do people test positive using standard PCR cycles | 00:47 |
| bin_bash | LjL: hm yeah that makes me think they need to be doing antibody tests before vaccinating | 00:47 |
| LjL | pigzuu, on average i'm not sure, i know in some cases people go on testing positive for a long time | 00:49 |
| de-facto | well i think it makes perfect and kind of confirms the vaccination shots are working: if the desired effect is to induce an immune reaction against the antigen (S-protein of SARS-CoV-2) of course the vaccination provoking the immune system with exactly that would have increased reactogenecity if the immune system already is primed against that antigen (either due to recovery or previous booster vaccination) | 00:49 |
| de-facto | in addition to that also (unwanted) immune reaction against the vaccination platform might occur, in case of viral vectors against the adenovirus "transport vector" or in case of the mRNA vaccines possibly also against the lipids in those nanoparticle delivery systems | 00:50 |
| de-facto | the second point underlining again the importance to have many independent vaccination platforms ready at the same time | 00:51 |
| LjL | also, sorry Zoe but i won't log my symptoms on a proprietary app ;( (aside from the fact i'm not in the UK, but anyway) | 00:51 |
| de-facto | bin_bash, antibody tests hopefully would show like 98% positive after primer shots and prior to booster shots? | 00:52 |
| de-facto | or similar percentage (that just was a guess by me) | 00:52 |
| de-facto | its like refreshing immunity levels (and potentially also updating against new variants in the future) | 00:53 |
| bin_bash | de-facto: i mean if there's concerns about getting the vaccine if someone has had covid, then it seems critical to test if someone has had covid prior to vaccinatging them | 00:59 |
| de-facto | its probably not even possible to test this now, e.g. if i had (asymptomatic) covid a year ago, it probably wont show up on the more common ELISA tests | 01:00 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Binding Profile Assessment of N501Y: a More Infectious Mutation on the Receptor Binding Domain of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein by Yuzhao Zhang et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-05 at https://api.figshare.com/v2/articles/13710961 | 01:01 |
| de-facto | also i dont think its critical concerns, it would be more about vaccine dose distributions, giving the vaccines to those that dont have any protection yet | 01:01 |
| bin_bash | de-facto: i'm talking about the systemic effects from the vaccine | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Global Initiative To Start Shipping Vaccines To Africa, Where Supplies Are Low: Dr. Katherine O'Brien of the World Health Organization says poor countries are able to get their populations vaccinated — they just need the doses. → https://is.gd/PYCHBW | 01:03 |
| de-facto | yes of course | 01:03 |
| bin_bash | if the effects are severe or long-term, then previously infected people probably shouldnt get it | 01:04 |
| de-facto | the immune system is alarmed by the occurrence of the antigen it already knows about from previous experience | 01:05 |
| LjL | de-facto, bin_bash: the thesis here (by whoever it was) was, if you antibody test *everybody* who's going to take the vaccine with a rapid test, it won't be very sensitive, but at least in areas of high COVID prevalence, it will save a few doses of vaccine that those people don't really need | 01:05 |
| bin_bash | LjL: right, I'm just thinking about the other angle as well | 01:06 |
| de-facto | bin_bash, i dont see reasons for assuming longterm effects from the vaccinations though | 01:06 |
| bin_bash | I agree with that but I'm wondering what the systemic effects were and if they could be long-term | 01:06 |
| de-facto | yes increased immunity (like the booster shots) id guess | 01:06 |
| de-facto | but i dont see reasons to assume something unwated like longcovid or such from vaccinations | 01:07 |
| bin_bash | oh no i wasnt assuming that | 01:07 |
| bin_bash | jsut postulating, sorry if it was not clear | 01:08 |
| de-facto | i remember to have read somewhere that antibody levels in those that had covid prior to vaccinations may be like an order of magnitude higher (i am not sure where i have read that though) | 01:09 |
| de-facto | but would make sense i think, the mechanism is similar to a booster shot | 01:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>just yesterday or so i was talking about that, and i already don't remember<< don't worry, you would make me worry too ;-D | 01:10 |
| LjL | what? did i say that? when? o.o | 01:11 |
| LjL | oh right | 01:11 |
| LjL | wait, what? i forgot | 01:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> its probably not even possible to test this now, e.g. if i had (asymptomatic) covid...<< you know how they test if you are ill with TBC? Tuberkulin pricktest | 01:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>antibody levels in those that had covid prior to vaccinations may be like an order of magnitude higher<< yep, I remember that too | 01:19 |
| de-facto | hmm interesting idea | 01:19 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, not sure if that is possible with S-protein, but it would be quite interesting to investigate that | 01:20 |
| de-facto | can it be exposed in the right orientation and prefusion stabilized conformation in such a Prick test? | 01:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | maybe relevant factoid: my PD told me that my old TBC vaccination would _nit_ cause a false positive | 01:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | whatever the relevance | 01:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +28294 cases (now 3.3 million) since 23 hours ago | 01:23 |
| de-facto | maybe similar to those Novavax vaccines, to have the prefusion stabilized S-protein stick out of a saponin matrix molecule or such in order to expose the correct surfaces for the immunologic provocation? | 01:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>can it be exposed in the right orientation and prefusion stabilized conformation...<< whatever that means, there are vaccines that simply inject the Spikes and an adjuvans | 01:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | iirc | 01:24 |
| de-facto | hence novavax | 01:25 |
| de-facto | %vax novavax | 01:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, NVX-CoV2373 Recombinant glycoprotein is a Protein subunit vaccine developed in USA by Novavax + Emergent BioSolutions + FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies + Serum Institute of India, which started testing on humans initially on May 6, currently employing 30000 healthy volunteers aged 18+ → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/Novavax | 01:25 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novavax_COVID-19_vaccine | 01:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies -LOL SCNR | 01:26 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, Fujifilm are actually the ones behind Tamiflu | 01:27 |
| LjL | they don't just make film, surprisingly enough :P | 01:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | lolol | 01:27 |
| LjL | at least i think it was Tamiflu, in any case one of the antivirals that for a while was touted as potentially helpful for COVID | 01:27 |
| LjL | (but then i think studies disproved that, also Fujifilm has quite limited production capacity) | 01:27 |
| LjL | anyway Novavax has around 90% efficacy per their study and their South Africa arm brings that down a lot, so against "plain" D614G they actually have the highest efficacy of any vaccine, iirc | 01:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yeah, those asian companies. Samsung, Honda (makes modified starch for food)... | 01:28 |
| LjL | of course not all studies are conducted identically so that doesn't mean much, except, it's probably a pretty decent vaccine | 01:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +4267 cases (now 1.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 01:35 |
| de-facto | the interesting takeaway from that comparison in the Novavax study (probably generic, since all the current vaccines are based on Wuhan variant of S-protein) is the reduced protection from symptomatic COVID in the SA variant, hence escaping | 01:37 |
| LjL | unfortunately :( | 01:38 |
| LjL | but still apparently protective against severe diseease iirc | 01:39 |
| LjL | although that's hard to determine very solidly i think | 01:39 |
| de-facto | VaccineEfficiency = (AttackRateUnvaccinated - AttackRateVaccinated) / AttackRateUnvaccinated = E = (U - V) / U hence V2 / V1 = U2 / U1 (1 - E2) / (1 - E1) = U2 / U1 (1 - 0.6) / (1 - 0.4) = U2 / U1 * 4 | 01:44 |
| de-facto | so if U2/U1 is the ratio of attack rates (infection per population) for unvaccinated people of new variant compared to old variant, the same ratio for vaccinated V2 / V1 is 4-times higher then | 01:45 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_efficacy | 01:47 |
| de-facto | correcting a typo: V2 / V1 = U2 / U1 (1 - E2) / (1 - E1) = U2 / U1 (1 - 0.6) / (1 - 0.9) = U2 / U1 * 4 with E2 = 60% and E1 = 90% | 01:49 |
| de-facto | i think this also depends on how much more immunity is derived from a vaccination than what is required to protect from symptomatic disease | 01:55 |
| de-facto | example: if a vaccination induces just barely enough immunity to protect from symptomatic disease with the classic variant, and the protection efficiency may be reduced like 4-6 fold for a new evasion mutant, it may not suffice to protect efficiently from that anymore | 01:57 |
| de-facto | yet if a vaccination induces like 10-fold the necessary immunity for protecting from symptomatic disease, the reduction by 4-6 still cant bring it under the protection threshold then | 01:58 |
| de-facto | and since protection levels probably are like exponentially decaying with time each 10 fold over protection threshold in antibody levels roughly would be equivalent to ln(10) ~ 2.3 fold longer protection time | 02:00 |
| de-facto | with the last statement i am not entirely sure, since in vivo its dynamic and not static neutralization as one would assume to see in vitro in static neutralization assays | 02:02 |
| de-facto | but since immunization seems to be able to "fade off" for sure there is something like such an effect, hence probably also can be extrapolated into the other direction as in "reserve immunity" (over protection threshold) from vaccination to protect against possible new evasion variants | 02:04 |
| de-facto | (unless there is a full evasion, yet i think the is near to impossible, all of them will be partial evasive only) | 02:05 |
| de-facto | (at least the virus also has to stay functional in terms of being able to use its S-protein RBD to bind to hACE2 receptors on the cells and the later dont change) | 02:06 |
| pigzuu | de-facto, looks like just mild headache day 2, 2nd shot of shingles was worse for me | 02:06 |
| de-facto | interesting, how would you say are the side effects for the BNT162b2 for 2 days after booster shot compared to 2 days after the primer shot? more or less, others or same? | 02:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Parenting during lockdown is exhausting, says Kate Middleton → https://is.gd/wZQeNx | 02:12 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- WHO Disease Outbreak News: Influenza A (H3N2) variant virus – United States of America ( http://www.who.int/entity/csr/don/05-feb-2021-influenza-a-usa/en/index.html ) | 02:21 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Italy's hardest-hit Covid-19 region to become 'hydrogen valley'. The area will become home of new hydrogen trains supported by new production facilities → https://is.gd/oKMRaa | 02:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +18674 cases (now 3.9 million), +1014 deaths (now 111264) since 23 hours ago — Burundi: +1 deaths (now 3) since 5 hours ago | 02:43 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to 8 months after infection (83 votes) | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6529/eabf4063.full | https://redd.it/ldj06f | 02:51 |
| de-facto | VOC B.1.351 (the SA variant incl E484K) outbreak Austria/Tyrol? | 03:07 |
| de-facto | will their ski-sport be a second Ischgl? | 03:08 |
| de-facto | dangit :((( | 03:08 |
| LjL | de-facto, unless we quickly form a new government and they fix this stuff, ski resorts will reopen in most of italy soon :( | 03:12 |
| LjL | well, except near Tyrol, probably, because South Tyrol is doing pretty badly and is basically the only region that's still not "yellow", i think | 03:12 |
| de-facto | i read B.1.351 is in NRW too, its probably also too late for that one | 03:13 |
| de-facto | FUCK. | 03:13 |
| de-facto | unfortunately it looks like B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 are all over Europe already | 03:14 |
| de-facto | in community transmission | 03:14 |
| de-facto | not sure about P1 | 03:14 |
| de-facto | why are people allowed to do ski-sports and travel freely around? | 03:16 |
| de-facto | this is beyond stupid. | 03:16 |
| de-facto | we need to massively increase lockdown in all of EU | 03:17 |
| de-facto | about my NonLinearModelFit for B.1.1.7 in Denmark having an increased Rb117 = 1.44 Rclassic earlier, here is the graph | 03:31 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/1qsiZOF https://i.imgur.com/LWdR8pW.png src: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/coronavirus-mutante-b117-daten-1.5197700 | 03:31 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Denmark: Incidence of VOC B.1.1.7 vs Classic SARS-CoV-2 - Album on Imgur | 03:31 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, ^^ | 03:31 |
| de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_05022021.pdf?__blob=publicationFile "Bericht zu Virusvarianten von SARSCoV-2 in Deutschland, insbesondere zur Variant of Concern (VOC) B.1.1.7" | 03:34 |
| de-facto | i think this is a late Christmas present for Europe | 03:39 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/MqN0UVw https://i.imgur.com/DZhjlMr.png | 03:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: VOC B.1.1.7 prevalence - Album on Imgur | 03:43 |
| de-facto | they will test for B.1.1.7 VOC every two weeks now to get a time trend for it | 03:45 |
| de-facto | i fear it will be a perfect exponential | 03:45 |
| de-facto | if Rb117 = 1.44 Rcassic the ratio of the B.1.1.7 VOC to the classic SARS-CoV-2 will double each t = 5.2 Ln(2) / Ln(1.44) = 9.88 days | 03:58 |
| de-facto | so if we now only have 5.8% B.1.1.7 in Germany in roughly a month or 30.7 days we will have to deal with 50% B.1.1.7 VOC | 04:02 |
| de-facto | great :( | 04:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I guess 3 weeks | 04:08 |
| de-facto | yeah 3-4 weeks something like that | 04:08 |
| de-facto | this is bad news, dangit | 04:08 |
| de-facto | i think in UK it was another month and then it was over 90% B.1.1.7 | 04:10 |
| de-facto | so one month from 0 to 50% another month from 50% to 90% | 04:10 |
| de-facto | (the exponential takeover will saturate in the second month) | 04:11 |
| de-facto | (but for the first month it should be pretty accurate) | 04:11 |
| de-facto | .title https://virological.org/t/tracking-the-international-spread-of-sars-cov-2-lineages-b-1-1-7-and-b-1-351-501y-v2/592 | 04:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From virological.org: Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351/501Y-V2 - nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology - Virological | 04:24 |
| de-facto | https://github.com/cov-lineages/lineages-website | 04:25 |
| de-facto | .title https://cov-lineages.org/ | 04:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From cov-lineages.org: PANGO lineages | 04:25 |
| de-facto | https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.1.7.html | 04:27 |
| de-facto | https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.351.html | 04:27 |
| de-facto | https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_P.1.html | 04:27 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (B.1.1.7) (80 votes) | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3779160 | https://redd.it/ld821h | 04:27 |
| de-facto | oh that sounds interesting ^^ | 04:32 |
| de-facto | there is a lot of really interesting data in that paper there | 04:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Climate change may have had 'key role' in pandemic: study → https://is.gd/xUYuVK | 05:03 |
| LjL | "Virus neutralisation activity by vaccineinduced antibodies was 9-fold lower against the B.1.1.7 variant than against a canonical non B.1.1.7 lineage." :( | 05:05 |
| LjL | but similar symptomatic outcomes | 05:05 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add paper on efficacy of Oxford/AstraZeneca on UK variant ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/57b21922653fc6aeca5539cc39c918cd6cc9b87b ) | 05:10 | |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add paper on efficacy of Oxford/AstraZeneca on UK variant → https://is.gd/lobFeg | 05:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2585 cases (now 721432), +35 deaths (now 21295) since a day ago | 06:39 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Could the new COVID-19 mutant strain undermine vaccination efforts? A mathematical modelling approach for estimating the spread of the UK mutant strain using Ontario, Canada, as a case study by Matthew Betti et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-05 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.02.02.21251039 [... want %more?] | 06:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India donates half a million doses of vaccine to Sri Lanka → https://is.gd/cAA07A | 07:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico City, Mexico: +8742 cases (now 497070), +535 deaths (now 23451) since a day ago — Morelos, Mexico: +1312 cases (now 20948), +41 deaths (now 1930) since a day ago — Queretaro, Mexico: +1021 cases (now 49470), +75 deaths (now 2953) since a day ago — San Luis Potosi, Mexico: +860 cases (now 52325), +106 deaths (now 3947) since a day ago | 07:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India to donate 10 million vaccine doses to Africa and 1 million to UN health workers. → https://is.gd/tk2ktp | 07:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ Open: Development and psychometric evaluation of a Positive Health measurement scale: a factor analysis study based on a Dutch population: Objectives The My Positive Health (MPH) dialogue tool is increasingly adopted by healthcare professionals in the Netherlands as well as abroad to support people in their health. Given this trend, the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JrvBOQ | 08:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 06, 2021: The World Health Organization maintains up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. You can find answers to frequently asked questions about Covid-19 and vaccines in our FAQ . → https://is.gd/ay4kxk | 10:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazil drugmaker seeks contract, regulatory OK for Russian vaccine next week → https://is.gd/EujTDR | 10:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Italy's births plunge, busting lockdown baby boom expectations → https://is.gd/WA7mVP | 10:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Coronavirus: Vaccine chief 'optimistic' about over-50s May target: Dr Clive Dix adds that the UK is "ahead of the game" in terms of anticipating coronavirus variants. → https://is.gd/UMWvIe | 10:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: Why Opening Restaurants Is Exactly What the Coronavirus Wants Us to Do: Caroline Chen ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. On Jan. 29, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was promoting “marital bliss” at a coronavirus news conference. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RruqYk | 11:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): 06/02/21 - ZOE COVID-19 Study Update: 353,380 people are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID-19 in the UK, down by 17,277. Yesterday was 370,657. → https://is.gd/ooDByu | 13:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: China gives approval for broader use of Sinovac vaccine → https://is.gd/R1Eu5b | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +671 deaths (now 61556) since 23 hours ago | 14:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wuhan residents remember coronavirus 'whistleblower' doctor a year after his death → https://is.gd/nxdVBM | 14:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Climate change may have influenced emergence of coronavirus, says study → https://is.gd/5OfZ5D | 14:17 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: 'It is getting better': The United States is making vaccine progress on several fronts, and experts are encouraged (10074 votes) | https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/05/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html | https://redd.it/ldkb68 | 14:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://www.msn.com/de-de/nachrichten/coronavirus/dieser-wettlauf-ist-l%C3%A4ngst-verloren-alles-andere-entspringt-wunschdenken/ar-BB1dqz7n?ocid=msedgntp | 14:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .title | 14:39 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05: From www.msn.com: „Dieser Wettlauf ist längst verloren. Alles andere entspringt Wunschdenken“ | 14:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de Dieser Wettlauf ist längst verloren. Alles andere entspringt Wunschdenken | 14:39 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: This race is long lost. Everything else comes from wishful thinking (MyMemory, Google) — This race is #long ago gone. #All #another *entspringt wishful thinking (Apertium) | 14:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Politicians must be held to account for mishandling the pandemic → https://is.gd/G9zFHK | 15:19 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Study found that both infection- and vaccine-induced antibodies were effective at neutralizing the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant. (83 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.02.21250799v1 | https://redd.it/ldwkhb | 15:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Retraction Watch: Weekend reads: A Holocaust studies misconduct finding; Nature investigating majorana paper; nepotistic journals: Before we present this week’s Weekend Reads, a question: Do you enjoy our weekly roundup? If so, we could really use your help. Would you consider a tax-deductible donation to support Weekend Reads, and our [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/jAtovd | 15:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +19 deaths (now 9603) since 20 hours ago | 15:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Brainstorm: how did that last one sneak in? | 15:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 716: COVID-19 clinical update #48 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #48, Daniel Griffin reviews effect of spike amino acid changes on neutralization with monoclonal antibodies, Sputnik V safety and efficacy results, increased reactogenicity after a single vaccine dose in seropositive individuals, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/b0ytAh | 16:22 |
| aloe[m]1 | %cases Turkeu | 16:22 |
| Brainstorm | aloe[m]1: Sorry, Turkeu not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 16:22 |
| aloe[m]1 | * %cases Turkey | 16:22 |
| aloe[m]1 | %cases Turkey | 16:22 |
| Brainstorm | aloe[m]1: In Turkey, there have been 2.5 million confirmed cases (3.0% of the population) and 26577 deaths (1.1% of cases) as of 21 hours ago. 30.3 million tests were performed (8.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey for time series data. | 16:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +2815 cases (now 1.0 million), +41 deaths (now 14352) since 23 hours ago | 16:53 |
| M7361[m] | https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf | 17:04 |
| M7361[m] | Concerning.... | 17:04 |
| M7361[m] | Why should I comply with one of the largest medical experiments orchestrated to date. | 17:04 |
| de-facto[m] | .title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 | 17:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto[m]: From www.nejm.org: Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine | NEJM | 17:22 |
| de-facto[m] | There are the results of that study 7ᴴ36ᴿ1ᴺᴰ | 17:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +3989 cases (now 799810), +104 deaths (now 20623) since 23 hours ago | 17:25 |
| pigzuu | de-facto[m], no difference | 17:25 |
| de-facto[m] | so only sore injection site and a bit headache for both primer and booster of BNT162b2 for you then? | 17:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Saturday 06 February 2021 Update → https://is.gd/rTv0vm | 17:48 |
| pigzuu | yeah, and that was just day 1-3, nothing now | 18:04 |
| de-facto | nice thats how its supposed to be i guess | 18:06 |
| pigzuu | ya was bit uncertain how to think about his vaccine, if it is unique amongst others, i get the annual flu vac, but otherwise not common for adults to get vaccines | 18:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: Whose Underlying Conditions Count for Priority in Getting the Vaccine? → https://is.gd/0CUyut | 18:12 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Jamaica: +328 cases (now 16841) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +18569 cases (now 3.9 million), +890 deaths (now 111887) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +385 deaths (now 91003) since 23 hours ago | 18:33 |
| Arsanerit | unless they travel from mid-latitudes to the tropics | 18:34 |
| pigzuu | At the current rates of vaccination, only about 10% of the world would be inoculated by the end of the year and 21% by the close of 2022, according to estimates by UBS. Just 10 countries are on track to vaccinate more than one-third of their population this year. | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada’s Largest Meatpacking Facility Is on Trial for Endangering Its Workers During the Pandemic → https://is.gd/0i62Ju | 18:36 |
| LjL | M7361[m], what in particular do you find concerning about that protocol? | 18:45 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Sinovac Announces Phase III Results of Its COVID-19 Vaccine (80 votes) | http://www.sinovac.com/?optionid=754&auto_id=922 | https://redd.it/ldwam6 | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Survey taken after France's first COVID-19 wave indicates almost one-third of working-age people could reject a vaccine: Nearly one in three working-age adults in France (29%) surveyed in July 2020—when lockdown restrictions had been eased—were outright opposed to being vaccinated against the virus, according to new [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mTX5Rm | 19:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Unwilling to wait, poorer countries seek their own vaccines: With coronavirus cases still climbing, Honduras got tired of waiting to get vaccines through a United Nations program, so the small Central American country struck out on its own, securing the shots through a private deal. → https://is.gd/egLKyR | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Calls grow for US to rely on rapid tests to fight pandemic: When a Halloween party sparked a COVID-19 outbreak at North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, school officials conducted rapid screening on more than 1,000 students in a week, including many who didn't have symptoms. → https://is.gd/yK5qFn | 19:49 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: 1 year after the first known US coronavirus death, over 450,000 families will never see a loved one again (10328 votes) | https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/06/health/us-covid-deaths-1-year/index.html | https://redd.it/ldy2f5 | 19:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Yankees stadium becomes vaccination site for New York's poor: Defying the cold and rain, hundreds of people bundled up in thick coats came to get vaccinated Friday in the famous Yankees baseball stadium in the Bronx, a New York borough that has been particularly badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/8a38b5 | 20:02 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 20:02 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data | 20:02 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, interesting, now BioNTech says they could scale with more investments in their production facilities https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/biontech-staatsgeld-101.html | 20:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | wow | 20:10 |
| IndoAnon | >now | 20:11 |
| IndoAnon | 😂 | 20:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, did you see this? <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Confidential European Commission documents seen by a German media team show a majority of EU member states wanted "traditional" vaccines and were "very little interested" in new-type jabs from BioNTech-Pfizer and Moderna → https://is.gd/SYCo93 | 20:14 |
| LjL | (not sure if it was even posted here, i got it earlier) | 20:15 |
| de-facto | yes i have seen that | 20:15 |
| de-facto | its because of all the critics on EU, i dont really care too much about the past, i think its much better to invest time in the near and far future | 20:16 |
| de-facto | i mean sure it should be learned from the past, but right now we should think about how to scale all vaccine production capacities for the near future | 20:17 |
| de-facto | hence also consider approval of Sputnik etc | 20:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm not convinced all that vaccine production scaling does earn us much | 20:17 |
| de-facto | i think its very important because we might need updates and for that we might need to scale for a third shot (possibly, its not clear yet) | 20:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +1130 cases (now 84212), +13 deaths (now 1446) since a day ago — Netherlands: +4174 cases (now 1.0 million) since 22 hours ago | 20:18 |
| LjL | de-facto, i don't like the way Sputnik used as a control arm the same ingredients as their actual vaccine, just without the adenovirus. i think it's worse than the "similar" approach Oxford took by using a meningitis vaccine as control: the meningitis vaccine had a known profile, so you were comparing a new vaccine to one that's known to be safe. but here, you are comparing the full thing against itself minus the vaccinating part | 20:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | either we get the VOC contained and then profit from T&C and springtime seasonal effects, then we got "all the time" to follow a reasonable vaccination plan already agreed upon. Or we do NOT contain the VOC and then the virus will do all the "vaccination" for us | 20:19 |
| de-facto | imho vaccination production rates scaling basically decides how soon we are able to take back lockdown measures, until we have the majority immunized we need strict NPIs to control the spread | 20:20 |
| LjL | i don't think it's feasible to contain the VOC at this point | 20:20 |
| de-facto | well i am pretty sure we wont contain the VOC it will explode until we reach something like 50% vaccination | 20:23 |
| de-facto | i dont think people would accept a hard curfew, hence case numbers will raise significantly and exponentially again | 20:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | as I said above, we won't be as fast with immunization of population as the VOC will be, in 6 weeks. So rather than worrying about ramping up vaccination speed, I meanwhile decided to focus on prepping | 20:24 |
| de-facto | we need to do both at the same time | 20:24 |
| de-facto | yes we wont be able to vaccinate in 6 weeks, no chance for that | 20:24 |
| de-facto | why? because production capacity did not scale to that level by lacking orders of magnitude | 20:25 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add DW aricle about "confidential documents" showing most EU states w… ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/2b57caba3b5d57fd4f51ee6bfc02a237dcb7a2cf ) | 20:25 | |
| DocScrutinizer05 | when shit hits the fan, nobody will ask for "more vax doses" since those will not even help if administered the same day. We'll reach herd immunity naturally, sooner than we thought we could, alas with a harsh toll to pay | 20:26 |
| de-facto | yet i still think incidence should be brought down with NPIs rather than vaccinations anyhow, and be hold down with then fast vaccination of as many as possible | 20:26 |
| de-facto | natural herd immunity does not work at least not like in Manaus | 20:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add DW aricle about "confidential documents" showing most EU states w… → https://is.gd/CetjC0 | 20:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://www.msn.com/de-de/nachrichten/coronavirus/dieser-wettlauf-ist-l%C3%A4ngst-verloren-alles-andere-entspringt-wunschdenken/ar-BB1dqz7n?ocid=msedgntp | 20:27 |
| de-facto | sure vaccinations cant stop this third wave in Germany now | 20:28 |
| de-facto | only a tightening of NPIs could | 20:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | isn't that what you call "cognitive dissonance"? | 20:29 |
| de-facto | instead they are talking about taking back restrictions | 20:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ^^^ | 20:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | :-S | 20:29 |
| de-facto | talking about how to open schools, about how holidays could be possible in the summer etc | 20:30 |
| de-facto | imho that is beyond stupid, it provokes false hopes in the people | 20:30 |
| de-facto | hence the only result from that are conflicts because of unrealistic expectations against necessary containment | 20:31 |
| de-facto | https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2021-01/no-covid-strategie.pdf https://smallpdf.com/shared#st=36f21c90-3abf-48ed-8522-d6b8f58751c5&fn=no-covid-strategie.pdf&ct=1612638406525&tl=share-document&rf=link | 20:31 |
| de-facto | that is what we really need | 20:31 |
| de-facto | imho we need a much much more aggressive strategy | 20:32 |
| LjL | i think there is *no* chance that what you think should happen will happen, unless governments feel pressured, and that also includes, in my opinion, a prominent debate on the mistakes that were made, including that thing that was released about EU countries not wanting mRNA vaccines | 20:37 |
| LjL | as long as you keep saying "i don't care about the past now, let's focus on the future", they will keep making the same sort of mistakes, because they see their past ones did not backfire for them | 20:37 |
| LjL | it irks me that this has to be a "confidential document" that DW somehow managed to see, instead of being an open discourse | 20:38 |
| LjL | few thing about this pandemic should be confidential and only seen by politicians, since it doesn't kill just politicians, but also the rest of us | 20:38 |
| de-facto | ak i agree with that | 20:40 |
| de-facto | pandemic situations are most successfully dealt with honesty and open minds and informations | 20:41 |
| de-facto | hence also transparency about the past is important and yes government should expect that their decisions also have consequences for which they are held responsible | 20:41 |
| de-facto | i meant it more like prioritizing to solve the challenges of near and far future hence also analyze and learn from the past in a constructive way that helps with doing it better in the future | 20:43 |
| de-facto | a prominent debate about the mistakes of the past can be helpful if the intention is to improve processes and prevent making the same mistakes again (actually that is extremely important) | 20:44 |
| de-facto | with constructive way i mean that goal of improvement rather than a blame game (that some politicians tend to love just too much) | 20:45 |
| LjL | i think just the fact it needs to be prominent would be helpful. if it's just the people in this channel (obviously more really, but still too few) reading up about the mistakes that were done, the debate will be tiny and most importantly, politicians will feel no pressure. they need to feel pressure from people knowing they made mistakes, and knowing that those mistakes became publicly clear. if this doesn't happen, they'll always "play it safe" (which is | 20:46 |
| LjL | doing as little as possible) | 20:46 |
| LjL | if it's a prominent debate, then sometimes it will be constructive, sometimes not. it would be all over TV and social media, so it can't always be constructive | 20:47 |
| LjL | but it needs to be *there* | 20:47 |
| de-facto | i think its fine (and even good they are willing to take some risk) to make some mistakes as long as it was not clear in advance, what really is important is not repeating the mistakes again, hence learn how to improve from analyzing them | 20:48 |
| de-facto | we need to take some risks in order to have an aggressive and successful strategy implemented that enables us to have some power in the fight against the pandemic | 20:48 |
| de-facto | so i dont blame them for taking risks, but i would blame them for repeating mistakes | 20:49 |
| de-facto | i would even like them to take more risks, e.g. in terms of investments etc | 20:50 |
| de-facto | of course not with things like vaccine safety in approval processes, there we need to play the safe card and wait for the trial results | 20:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>they need to feel pressure from people knowing they made mistakes<< Scheuer, anybody? We got a Minsiter who a) gor an own term named after him: "beScheuert" b) wasted 500some million with idiotic insiting on signing contracts which everybody know would fail and get penalty payments c) guess what! Is still a minister | 20:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and don't get me started about BoJo and Trump. "Pressure from people"? LOL | 21:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The world is on the precipice of a global vaccine war that could wreck the fight against COVID-19 → https://is.gd/w9cqpw | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +14705 cases (now 3.3 million), +281 deaths (now 78716) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +10301 cases (now 2.3 million), +666 deaths (now 61629) since 23 hours ago | 21:08 |
| de-facto | and btw i think it actually is discussed in the media in a public way, politicians get asked the difficult questions quite often even in a suggestive way that implies some blame on their decisions but also get a chance to answer on that (which I think is the only fair way, criticize them while giving them the opportunity to explain themselves). Quite often the suggestive questions also are asked in a way that opens a potential future | 21:14 |
| de-facto | scenario hence in a constructive way to get a statement about new possibilities and collaborations etc | 21:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and more often than not they do this age old politicians' thing: "when you don't like to answer a question about A, simply answer to B instead, nevermind nobody asked that" | 21:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | supplemental quastion: >>but, what about *A*?<< Answer: >>I think I already answered that! next question please!<< | 21:22 |
| de-facto | yeah some do that, yet i think then its obvious they dont feel competent enough to answer the real question | 21:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | or the new style: >>YOU are FAKE NEWS!<< | 21:23 |
| de-facto | na they dont do that here at least not the normal ones | 21:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | not yet | 21:23 |
| de-facto | that would be AfD style, noone takes them serious anymore | 21:23 |
| de-facto | asked about A and answering with B actually is "press speaker style" hence not having the authority to actually speak about A, if a politician does that it means either lack of confidence or power to do a statement about A. Of course they know the less they say the lower the risk of being held responsible for something, but also it means they are irrelevant in that regard then, more or less | 21:27 |
| de-facto | being asked about A is the opportunity to be relevant about A | 21:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | in an ideal world, yes | 21:33 |
| de-facto | hmm anything known about the Johnson & Johnson production facilities? | 22:05 |
| de-facto | do they have the ability to produce their full vaccine *outside* of the USA, e.g. in EU (Belgium?) or such? | 22:06 |
| de-facto | because afaik the USA has strict export restrictions in place in regards to vaccines and products required to produce them | 22:06 |
| de-facto | same question about Novavax | 22:07 |
| de-facto | Do export restrictions also apply to vaccine production facilities outside US, e.g. if Novavax AB in Uppsala (Sweden) could produce, would it be allowed to deliver to the EU? | 22:12 |
| de-facto | or Novavax Praha, Czechia | 22:13 |
| de-facto | how is that with Johnson & Johnson owned Janssen Pharmaceutica N.V. in Belgium or Janssen-Cilag GmBH in Neuss? | 22:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saint Lucia: +257 cases (now 1813) since 2 days ago — Switzerland: +3 deaths (now 9606) since 6 hours ago | 22:16 |
| de-facto | %vax novavax | 22:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, NVX-CoV2373 Recombinant glycoprotein is a Protein subunit vaccine developed in USA by Novavax + Emergent BioSolutions + FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies + Serum Institute of India, which started testing on humans initially on May 6, currently employing 30000 healthy volunteers aged 18+ → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/Novavax | 22:17 |
| de-facto | %vax janssen | 22:18 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, Ad26 alone or with MVA boost is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in Belgium + USA by Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) + Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Harvard Medical School) + Emergent BioSolutions + Catalent, which started testing on humans initially on Aug 11, currently employing 60000 healthy volunteers aged 18+ → [... want %more?] | 22:18 |
| de-facto | does anyone know about the legal challenge to get vaccines delivered from US companies outside the US (either via export or via production outside of US but by US owned companies)? | 22:21 |
| de-facto | (maybe its not a problem at all, i just want to know how realistic the delivery is once they make contracts with them) | 22:22 |
| de-facto | i mean obviously its possible somehow, yet Moderna seems to deliver only very small amounts | 22:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bill Gates Warns That a Next Pandemic Could Be 10 times Worse → https://is.gd/RBTxtq | 22:41 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Newborn antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 detected in cord blood after maternal vaccination (84 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.03.21250579v1 | https://redd.it/le5vhn | 23:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +18262 cases (now 3.9 million), +828 deaths (now 112092) since 21 hours ago | 23:56 |
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