| de-facto | cheap one from supermarket | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | Uh why would it do that O.o | 00:00 |
| LjL | It goes down to 94% for me sometimes :( | 00:00 |
| LjL | And worse when I was in the alps | 00:00 |
| LjL | 91-92% sometimes | 00:00 |
| de-facto | SPO18 from Sanitas | 00:01 |
| de-facto | its dirt cheap one but its alright, does its job | 00:01 |
| LjL | Sanitas makes some other things I've heard of | 00:01 |
| LjL | A scale maybe | 00:01 |
| de-facto | yeah they do such things | 00:02 |
| de-facto | *produce | 00:02 |
| de-facto | wow its double what i paid for on amazon now | 00:02 |
| de-facto | LOL | 00:03 |
| de-facto | yeah its alright, i just want to know my "normal levels" so i can see if anything changes | 00:03 |
| ryouma | are those attacks to destroy or attacks to find out what the compatnies are doing? | 00:04 |
| ryouma | riussia and nk | 00:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +161787 cases (now 11.2 million), +1303 deaths (now 251215) since a day ago — Canada: +4405 cases (now 291732), +61 deaths (now 10902) since 22 hours ago | 00:06 |
| metreo1 | .cases Canada | 00:10 |
| Brainstorm | metreo1: In Canada, there have been 291732 confirmed cases (0.8% of the population) and 10902 deaths (3.7% of cases) as of 5 minutes ago. 10.2 million tests were performed (2.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. | 00:10 |
| the-wes | .cases vatican | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | the-wes: In Vatican, there have been 27 confirmed cases (3.4% of the population) and 0 deaths (0.0% of cases) as of 28 days ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Vatican for time series data. | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +161908 cases (now 11.2 million), +1290 deaths (now 251218) since 23 hours ago | 00:20 |
| ryouma | that was 100k just a few d ago | 00:22 |
| ryouma | per day | 00:23 |
| de-facto | even reproduction number raises | 00:31 |
| de-facto | R=1.2 few days ago, now its R=1.23 | 00:31 |
| de-facto | http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +163995 cases (now 11.2 million), +1296 deaths (now 251238) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4604 cases (now 291931) since 22 hours ago | 00:35 |
| ryouma | yavapai az and penobscot me are doubling every 6 days | 00:44 |
| euod[m] | de-facto: unfortunately I'm sure these are lower bounds. | 00:44 |
| ryouma | that is cases per day are doubling every 6d i think | 00:44 |
| euod[m] | the US is certainly significantly under reported. | 00:45 |
| euod[m] | all of africa I imagine is severely under reported. | 00:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: U.S. Surgeon General Blames 'Pandemic Fatigue' For Recent COVID-19 Surge: U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams says people are tired and aren't taking mitigation measures as seriously as before. → https://is.gd/NsIICB | 00:49 |
| ryouma | euod[m]: do you mean under-tested? | 00:51 |
| euod[m] | under reported as a consequence of under testing | 00:51 |
| ryouma | beaverhead county mt is doubling every 3-4d | 01:03 |
| de-facto | so basically Rt for USA did raise since 2020-10-01 from R=1 to R=1.22 on 2020-11-13 in 43 days more or less linear with time: R(t) = 1.0 + 0.22 t / 43 | 01:03 |
| de-facto | with t from 2020-10-01 | 01:03 |
| de-facto | or from yesterady then R(t) = 1.22 + 0.22 t / 43 | 01:04 |
| de-facto | source https://github.com/lin-lab/COVID19-Viz/blob/master/01_download_rt.sh | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +164734 cases (now 11.2 million), +1298 deaths (now 251242) since a day ago | 01:06 |
| ryouma | so if the formula is (/ t-serial (log rt 2)) then this gives the doubling period for new cases per day, right? | 01:06 |
| de-facto | yeah t_double = t_serial Ln(2) / Ln(R(t)) | 01:08 |
| de-facto | i think they use t_serial = 5.2 days | 01:08 |
| de-facto | yeah | 01:09 |
| de-facto | "The input parameter values of the distribution of the disease serial interval: We used a Gamma distribution with a mean of 5.2 days and a standard deviation of 5.1 days (He, X., et al, 2020)." | 01:09 |
| ryouma | oh not 4d for t serial? good | 01:10 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy (83 votes) | https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755 | https://redd.it/juabvy | 01:16 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/3iLOxIZ https://i.imgur.com/PT011iX.png | 01:16 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID19 USA Reproduction Rt from 2020-10-01 linear approx. - Album on Imgur | 01:16 |
| de-facto | ryouma, ^^made a graph | 01:17 |
| de-facto | yeah sometimes 4d are used for serial time, other times they use 5.2 days | 01:17 |
| de-facto | it is important to always use the corresponding pairs and not mix them | 01:17 |
| de-facto | so for those Rt values calculated with 5.2 days serial_time never should be used with 4 days serial time then | 01:18 |
| de-facto | so it seems the linear approximation is quite good since 2020-10-01 | 01:18 |
| de-facto | for Rt | 01:19 |
| ryouma | de-facto: what are the headers for that shell script data? | 01:19 |
| ryouma | so which does the shells cript data use and which does 16:32 <de-facto> http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ use? | 01:20 |
| de-facto | i think its the same data | 01:20 |
| ryouma | and they both use 5.2 then? | 01:21 |
| de-facto | but i did not confirm that | 01:21 |
| de-facto | yes always 5.2 days | 01:21 |
| de-facto | for that source | 01:21 |
| ryouma | there is also rt.live | 01:22 |
| de-facto | so incidence would be like N(t) = N(t0) * (1.0 + 0.22 * t / 43) ^ (t / 5.2) with t0 = 2020-10-01 and t starting from t0 in days | 01:23 |
| de-facto | nice | 01:23 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: The Dakotas are 'as bad as it gets anywhere in the world' for COVID-19 (10133 votes) | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/11/14/covid-19-north-south-dakota-masks-kristi-noem/6237635002/ | https://redd.it/ju2itm | 01:28 |
| spybert | yeah, they're at almost an 8% infection rate now | 01:32 |
| de-facto | hmm N(t) = 45000 * (1.0 + 0.19 * t / 43) ^ (t / 5.2) with t starting from 2020-10-01 fits better for some reason | 01:33 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/jte3cu/who_warns_life_will_not_return_to_normal_until/gca4rxm/?context=3 "this bizarre type of sadism that seems to be popular with pro-lockdown types" | 01:40 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/OU4cq1e https://i.imgur.com/5yS2Nts.png | 01:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID19 USA Incidence and Reproduction approximation - Album on Imgur | 01:43 |
| de-facto | so that seems to fit pretty good then | 01:43 |
| de-facto | well with sane people there would be no requirement for lockdown, obviously people behave very stupidly so they need to be forced to act sane by a lockdown | 01:45 |
| LjL | de-facto, what do you respond though to his example of Singapore, Thailand and NZ | 01:45 |
| de-facto | they acted very early and strictly, so they never got into such a situation | 01:46 |
| de-facto | and afaik they have much more aggressive containment than most countries in Europe | 01:46 |
| de-facto | like with mandatory quarantine etc | 01:46 |
| de-facto | idk i dont want to get into ranting mood again, its the people allowing for infection here | 01:47 |
| LjL | i wonder if it's the same category of people who consider "pro-lockdown types" sadists | 01:48 |
| spybert | It's the power of Fox News propaganda stream | 01:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | R_eff based on 4 days serial length = R_eff based on N days serial length * constantfactor_for_N | 01:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, that's not exactly mathematically correct, anyway 1 = 1 for any serial length base of R_eff | 01:51 |
| spybert | de-facto: In this case you have an authority figure whom most people have no reason not to trust, the president, telling them that masks are totally unnecessary | 01:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid cases rising, Austria plans lockdown beginning Tuesday → https://is.gd/kEvFNx | 01:55 |
| spybert | Most Americans unless informed otherwise would have no reason to suspect that the president is a Russian asset put in place to damage the country as much as possible. | 01:55 |
| spybert | The death toll is so high, 245000 at this point, that some type of retaliation against Russia is justified. | 02:01 |
| tinwhiskers | o.O say what?! | 02:21 |
| tinwhiskers | I take it that's some sort of joke. | 02:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | R_eff based on 4 days serial length = R_eff based on N days serial length ^ constantfactor_for_N | 02:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's the correct math | 02:22 |
| LjL | spybert, don't be ridiculous | 02:22 |
| LjL | and don't suggest retaliating against a country or people in this channel | 02:23 |
| LjL | also you speak as if the 245000 deaths were all due to the president | 02:23 |
| LjL | many countries with presidents who are not Donald Trump have had high death tolls | 02:24 |
| ChineseMan | but they are shithole countries | 02:24 |
| ChineseMan | US should be btter than that | 02:24 |
| LjL | okay, don't call countries "shithole countries" either | 02:24 |
| ryouma | a slightly different topic is 1) cyber attacks by foreign countries on certain countries (perhaps, but maybe not, most notably usa), whatever that means (disruption vs. espionage per se) 2) disruption via e.g. amplification of morons on social media, basically agents-provocateur. 1) is apparently unsettled law and custom wrt such things as act of war status, for which retaliation has been proposed or discussed, alo | 02:30 |
| ryouma | ng the lines of tit-for-tat cyber attacks and such. 2) might be too new to even have the kind of development 1) has in diplomatic/military/policy circles. | 02:30 |
| ryouma | i believe russia has attacked europe also | 02:31 |
| LjL | do we know the reverse isn't happening? | 02:32 |
| ryouma | at least, it has been claimed | 02:32 |
| ryouma | it could be for all i know | 02:32 |
| ryouma | to me, that the pandemic would be used more or less as a weapon, indirectly or directly, as mainstream reports seem to indicate, is fundamentally abhorrent at the human rights and basic sanity level. that e.g. the "maskholes" (tinwhiskers) are stirred up by a foreign power is something i would not have predicted a year ago. | 02:39 |
| ryouma | but then i would not have predicted them in the first place. that, i should have. | 02:39 |
| tinwhiskers | o.O | 02:40 |
| ryouma | idk what kind of stuff occurred in the cold war; you would think you could map some of that onto 2) | 02:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: ‘It’s traumatizing’: Coronavirus deaths in US are climbing once again → https://is.gd/SXJH2i | 02:42 |
| ryouma | i wonder if those pandemic conferences talked at all about the possible role of partisan intra-country politics OR the role of foreign powers | 02:44 |
| ryouma | possible* | 02:44 |
| ryouma | but yes, i am concerned about possible war with russia or china and such. the world seems unpredictable to me. perhaps others have a firmer grasp of what the trajectories are. | 02:47 |
| jacklsw | there are already smaller wars around the world | 02:48 |
| ryouma | related to pandemic? | 02:48 |
| ryouma | i am also* (as in i am also concerned about statements of justification for retalliation and such) | 02:48 |
| jacklsw | wars are pretty much for somebody's gain | 02:49 |
| jacklsw | armenia-azerbaijan now | 02:49 |
| ryouma | does not seem pandemic related | 02:55 |
| ryouma | https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54324772 | 02:55 |
| ryouma | or at least not overtly | 02:55 |
| jacklsw | ok maybe pandemic related there's none | 03:01 |
| jacklsw | but there are mini-wars regardless of pandemic | 03:01 |
| ryouma | haven't there been forever? more specifically ethnic/religious/etc since cold war ended? | 03:03 |
| spybert | LjL: It is true that Trump is not responsible for all the covid-19 deaths in the US, but rather most of them. But I will respect your wishes and not discuss issues related to retaliation in this channel. | 03:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | thanks | 03:08 |
| euod[m] | <euod[m] "yes, I personally know people bo"> I take that back, the person I was referring to there is now covid positive. | 03:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Study: Temperature checks, symptom screenings not very effective in detecting COVID-19 infections (10352 votes) | https://abc13.com/temperature-checks-covid-coronavirus-symptoms-screenings/7922615/ | https://redd.it/ju9roi | 03:10 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, R1^ tserial2 = R2 ^ tserial1 with corresponding pairs { R1(tserial1), tserial1 } and { R2(tserial2), tserial2 } hence it should be R1 = R2 ^ (tserial1 / tserial2) and R2 = R1 ^(tserial2 / tserial1) | 03:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yep | 03:12 |
| de-facto | as example, tserial1 = 4 days, tserial2 = 5.2 days or such | 03:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | see R_eff_1d in http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 03:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ($C34/$C33)^4 | 03:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://i.imgur.com/6oxd2iv.png | 03:16 |
| de-facto | well but thats slighty different N(t) = N(t0) * Reff(t) ^ ((t - t0) / tserial) hence Reff(t) = (N(t) / N(t0)) ^ (tserial / (t - t0)) | 03:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 03:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | t - t0 = 1; 4/1 = 4 | 03:19 |
| de-facto | yep | 03:19 |
| de-facto | if you choose tserial = 4 | 03:19 |
| ryouma | tinwhiskers: i thought that was your word :) | 03:22 |
| de-facto | why do journalists never tell their sources e.g. the papers they are writing about? are they afraid that people might find out they misunderstood things? | 03:30 |
| de-facto | in my opinion this is very unprofessional and demonstrates that their competence is not worth any trust | 03:30 |
| de-facto | ie. for me it means they are incompetent on the field they are writing about | 03:31 |
| ryouma | they usually are incompetent in science i think | 03:32 |
| ryouma | just read even a science news magazine and look at the articles closest to your own field. my guess is you will find many errors. | 03:33 |
| de-facto | so for above article it would be https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717 | 03:34 |
| de-facto | %title | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Marine Recruits during Quarantine | NEJM | 03:34 |
| de-facto | ryouma, indeed | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Elon musk has covid-19 → https://is.gd/1paFuT | 04:13 |
| de-facto | hmm Elon musk tweeting nonsense. not so good :/ | 04:23 |
| cloud69 | hmm | 04:47 |
| ryouma | what is the term for that? key person risk? | 05:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ Open: Knowledge level and factors influencing prevention of COVID-19 pandemic among residents of Dessie and Kombolcha City administrations, North-East Ethiopia: a population-based cross-sectional study: Objective In Ethiopia, community-level knowledge about the current COVID-19 pandemic has not been well studied. This study is aimed to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/EUlRzz | 05:18 |
| tinwhiskers | The mysterious COVID-19 case reported on Thursday [In Auckland, NZ] has now been genomically linked to the Defence Force cluster, but contact tracing has not revealed a link and there is concern this may mean there are more unknown cases spreading in the community. | 06:07 |
| tinwhiskers | I suppose we may be selecting for variants that have a tendency to be more asymptomatic. | 06:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Not sure if that would be good or bad. | 06:09 |
| ryouma | de-facto: what nonsense? | 06:13 |
| ryouma | or maybe i don't care, nm | 06:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 681: Crowley, coats, and cross-reactive antibodies: Daniel Griffin provides a clinical report on COVID-19, Kathleen Crowley explains the role of Environmental Health & Safety departments, update on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in farmed mink, and the presence of pre-existing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in unexposed individuals. → https://is.gd/c1f1po | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus features causing COVID-19 using primate model: Features of the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19, which could be useful for developing vaccines and treatment strategies, were identified using a nonhuman primate model developed at the Korea Research Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology(KRIBB). → https://is.gd/XqC4py | 06:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Stop anti-vaccination fake news online with new law says Labour → https://is.gd/lCsjqY | 06:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: It took a century to open a Mosque in Athens. Then came the pandemic → https://is.gd/ngtwKd | 07:02 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Review of the Emerging Evidence Supporting the Use of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19 (80 votes) | https://osf.io/wx3zn/ | https://redd.it/ju7hmr | 09:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indian acting legend Soumitra Chatterjee dies aged 85 from Covid-19 complications → https://is.gd/4iQXIA | 09:39 |
| cloud69 | hmmm | 10:42 |
| cloud69 | how is Brainstorm getting news from reddit? is it scraping it? | 10:42 |
| jacklsw | someone here writes the script cloud69 | 11:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germans should brace for 4-5 months of severe COVID-19 measures, minister says → https://is.gd/dYJ3mA | 11:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Pandemic holds few lessons for European chefs, mostly misery → https://is.gd/sNIUtM | 12:08 |
| cloud69 | jacklsw: yp i know | 12:19 |
| cloud69 | the twitter streaming part i get, but not reddit as i hear their api is BS and the only way to get info from them is by scraping it yourself | 12:20 |
| cloud69 | LjL: ping <3 | 12:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Normal life back next winter, says vaccine creator: The impact of a new coronavirus vaccine will not kick in until summer, says Prof Ugur Sahin. → https://is.gd/AT0AXR | 12:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 15 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/e5jowH | 14:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Top Biden health advisor says national lockdown to contain Covid surge is ‘measure of last resort’ → https://is.gd/cLlp7x | 17:35 |
| LjL | fun, amazon is all out of pulse oximeters again | 18:00 |
| LjL | %tell cloud69: Brainstorm has no special knowledge of Reddit, it just uses its RSS feeds (just add .rss to a subreddit URL for the simple version, but it can also RSS-ize searches and stuff) | 18:01 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass cloud69 your message when they are around. | 18:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Virtual Reality and the COVID Mental Health Crisis: Depression and anxiety have risen amid the pandemic; immersive therapeutics can help -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/5vE1MM | 18:13 |
| LjL | %tr <it Dagli studi sui primati sembra che il vaccino Pfizer (ed il suo simile della Moderna) abbia una forte capacità di ridurre l’infezione non solo a livello polmonare ma anche a livello nasale, mentre quest’ultimo effetto sembra assente per il vaccino Oxford/Astra Zeneca. | 18:33 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: From studies on primates it seems that the Pfizer vaccine (and its similar from Moderna) has a strong ability to reduce infection not only in the lungs but also in the nose, while the latter effect seems absent for the Oxford / Astra vaccine. Zeneca. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 18:33 |
| LjL | anyone heard this claim? yuriwho? | 18:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ukraine: +12785 cases (now 540593), +202 deaths (now 9806) since a day ago — Iran: +12543 cases (now 762068), +459 deaths (now 41493) since a day ago — Parana, Brazil: +10491 cases (now 238314), +81 deaths (now 5691) since a day ago — Turkey: +3223 cases (now 414278), +89 deaths (now 11507) since a day ago | 18:37 |
| tinwhiskers | Sounds like nonsense | 18:41 |
| Groar | %cases spain | 18:45 |
| Brainstorm | Groar: In Spain, there have been 1.5 million confirmed cases (3.2% of the population) and 40769 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of a day ago. 19.4 million tests were performed (7.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data. | 18:45 |
| Groar | %cases Basque Country | 18:45 |
| Brainstorm | Groar: In Basque Country, Spain, there have been 17513 confirmed cases (0.8% of the population) and 1483 deaths (8.5% of cases) as of 3 months ago. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected) and less than 11.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Basque%20Country for time series data. | 18:45 |
| Groar | nice | 18:45 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Assessing the effectiveness of using various face coverings to mitigate the transport of airborne particles produced by coughing indoors (84 votes) | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02786826.2020.1846679 | https://redd.it/juk60i | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Fauci says Trump administration should start working with President-elect Biden on coronavirus response → https://is.gd/Aur2E7 | 18:59 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah a bit, i've no idea why there would be a difference on the upper respiratory tract, but otoh yuriwho repeatedly said he'd rather get one of the mRNA vaccines over the adenovirus or the other ones | 19:01 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, the mRNA ones seem to have the best chance of long term immunity and least risk but I'm skeptical that the Oxford vaccine would not "reduce infection" in the nose. It sounds like propaganda or something. | 19:04 |
| tinwhiskers | The adenovirus approach seems to have some problems though. | 19:05 |
| LjL | this is accurate... and it was downvoted. https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/jte3cu/who_warns_life_will_not_return_to_normal_until/gc98tqd/ this whole reddit thread gives me a good sense of how deluded people are | 19:06 |
| tinwhiskers | If we're going to need a booster once a year (or every six months) the adenovirus approach may not be very useful at all if we gain immunity to the vaccine vector itself. | 19:07 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah, although there's more than one adenovirus around, but still, it does seem like a concern | 19:07 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, the slightly scary thing is that we'll almost inevitably end up taking multiple, different vaccines at different times, depending on what's available in our country when our turn comes. so we're going to have combinations that were never tested | 19:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, probably | 19:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Although I don't think vaccine interactions are something to worry too much about compared to drug interactions. | 19:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Austria plans 'mass tests' to help exit virus lockdown: Austria is planning "mass testing" for coronavirus to help a chart a way out of the second lockdown coming into force next week, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said on Sunday. → https://is.gd/ZHeZcn | 19:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Germany warns months more virus curbs as Mexico tops 1 mn cases: Germany warned Sunday that its anti-coronavirus measures were likely to last four or five more months, as Greece announced a new ban on gatherings and Mexico surpassed one million infections. → https://is.gd/DSakij | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Covid-19: As lab execs sell shares worth millions, questions arise: Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax: executives at several American laboratories developing COVID-19 vaccines have recently pocketed millions of dollars by selling shares in their companies—raising questions about the propriety of such a move in the midst of a national [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Y2GYBI | 19:46 |
| Skunny | Germany hails couch potatoes as heroes of coronavirus pandemic | 20:07 |
| rpifan | yea | 20:10 |
| de-facto | so mRNA needs -80°C cooling, how come ssRNA is more stable (is it?) in virions? what kind of transport vehicles do those mRNA vaccines use? could they also have something like a nucleocapsid protein? | 20:14 |
| rpifan | im happy to be locked down | 20:15 |
| rpifan | but the german govt should come out iwth a law protecting peoples jobs | 20:15 |
| rpifan | and to ensure ppl wont get fired | 20:16 |
| de-facto | they should go for a proper lockdown, one that clearly goes *far* beyond "light" | 20:17 |
| de-facto | we will see tomorrow | 20:18 |
| de-facto | i hope they go for something like Austria and also close schools | 20:18 |
| de-facto | i doubt it though | 20:18 |
| lurgi[m] | Why should germany Lockdown like Austria? Doesnt make sens, the Problem is not the ill people. If 3% of PCR tested people get really ill and the other not, you have to search other methods for diagnosting. Has been there weeks ago. They will be on the Street like in italy spain or uk. | 20:38 |
| tinwhiskers | lurgi[m]: the people who don't get ill still spread it. The whole point is to stop it spreading so 3% of Germans don't die. | 20:49 |
| the-wes | inb4 "but only 4% of people who die are from covid!" | 20:50 |
| tinwhiskers | o.O | 20:52 |
| blkshp | 4% more than needs to be then surely. | 21:01 |
| LjL | %title https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755 would seem to add up with the finding of SARS-COV-2 RNA in the sewage. of course since i cannot access the full test of this, they could have used unreliable antibody tests or whatnot. | 21:08 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From journals.sagepub.com: Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy - Giovanni Apolone, Emanuele Montomoli, Alessandro Manenti, Mattia Boeri, Federica Sabia, Inesa Hyseni, Livia Mazzini, [...] | 21:08 |
| LjL | the comments at https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/juabvy/unexpected_detection_of_sarscov2_antibodies_in/ seem skeptical | 21:09 |
| LjL | but "The authors verified the results of the antibody test with a second microneutralization assay. This is the lab-based assay government disease control authorities and militaries use, performed at either a university or a government biocontainment facility, which as they are observational essentially cannot produce 'false readings' (since the technician actually sees the spread of the viral body in naive tissue)." | 21:12 |
| LjL | "The microneutralization assay confirmed 6 samples from 3 different months and 4 different regions. Knowing this, the likelihood of this data representing misleading findings is exceedingly low." | 21:13 |
| LjL | but the response is, predictably perhaps, | 21:13 |
| LjL | "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You know, like the superluminal neutrino case. Even if you double-checked everything, it still might be wrong." | 21:13 |
| LjL | so basically you can double check any sort of extraordinary evidence and it won't be extraordinary enough anyway | 21:13 |
| LjL | i *agree* that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, but the bar for that evidence shouldn't be "infinity, if it's a claim i don't believe in to begin with" | 21:14 |
| LjL | https://np.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/juabvy/unexpected_detection_of_sarscov2_antibodies_in/gcbtq6i/ | 21:18 |
| LjL | someone else: "Its an error of some kind, period." oh okay, i thought science didn't work like that, but okay | 21:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus has been circulating in Italy since September last year, scientists say based on analysis of blood samples from lung cancer screening. → https://is.gd/a81y7g | 21:19 |
| tinwhiskers | How does Brainstorm always read minds? | 21:21 |
| LjL | it tells me that i have set it up somewhat properly even though there's always someone periodically complaining the worldnews posts are irrelevant etc | 21:21 |
| tinwhiskers | well I'm still in the "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence camp" on that one too. Someone do a damned sequence. | 21:24 |
| tinwhiskers | If it were cycling back in September we should have been seeing more cases present in hospitals. | 21:24 |
| tinwhiskers | If it made sense I'd be inclined to believe it but it doesn't make sense. | 21:26 |
| tinwhiskers | and it not making sense is what makes it an extraordinary claim. | 21:28 |
| tinwhiskers | even though there have been various reports of such findings there may be some systemic problem with matching other coronaviruses or something (which wouldn't bode well for our current testing data, but might explain these extraordinary findings). | 21:30 |
| yuriwho | LjL: tinwhiskers | 21:34 |
| tinwhiskers | hi yuriwho | 21:34 |
| yuriwho | regarding the nasal vs. lung immunity of the Moderna vaccine. The data is presented in this talk by Kizzmekia Corbett of the NIH: https://youtu.be/xpqfdr9FPWM?t=1870 I have time stamped where she talks about it... I have not reviewed similar data from the other vaccines | 21:35 |
| yuriwho | but it does appear to produce neutralizing antibodies to a MUCH higher degree than natural infection and it stops viral replication in the nasal epithelia as well as the lung. | 21:37 |
| tinwhiskers | yuriwho: so you think it's a real effect; the difference in "nasal vs. lung immunity"? | 21:37 |
| tinwhiskers | ah | 21:37 |
| yuriwho | oh yes, it definitely an important distinction especially with regard to the question: "If I am vaccinated, can I still get infected and be an asymptomatic carrier?" | 21:38 |
| yuriwho | for herd immunity to work, vaccinated individuals need not to be just protected from disease but also protected from getting infected and spreading the disese | 21:40 |
| tinwhiskers | I guess I may have a misconception about how viruses infect people. I thought they are systemic but become concentrated in area with receptors, but from what you're saying they actually remain fairly localised? | 21:40 |
| yuriwho | this coronavirus infects your nasal epithelia first, then lungs and gastrointestinal tract.... your infectivity to others primarily correlates with upper respiratory infection, disease correlates with lung infection | 21:42 |
| tinwhiskers | so they don't spread (much?) via the blood system? | 21:43 |
| yuriwho | the nasal infection does not do much permanent damage beyond loss of smell/taste | 21:43 |
| yuriwho | they do spread via blood to white blood cells after the blood cells travel to the nose/lung and then circulate back into blood and lymph | 21:44 |
| tinwhiskers | so how come you would expect immunity in the lungs but not nasal immunity from this vaccine? | 21:47 |
| tinwhiskers | (or less nasal immunity rather) | 21:47 |
| yuriwho | blocking nasal viral growth in vaccinated individuals that get inoculated with SARS-CoV-2 again is a really big deal for establishing herd immunity via vaccines | 21:47 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, but why the difference in this vaccine? | 21:48 |
| yuriwho | IgG's are fairly well known to not be effectively circulated in the nasal passages. I think this is due to the absolute lvl's of neutralizing antibodies produced. | 21:49 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, ok. So that would be a general thing and not specific to this particular vaccine? | 21:49 |
| yuriwho | more neutralizing IgG's overall, more in the nose | 21:49 |
| yuriwho | correct | 21:49 |
| tinwhiskers | ok, well that answers that :-) | 21:50 |
| tinwhiskers | It sounded like they were saying it was a problem specific to this vaccine. | 21:50 |
| de-facto | are there differences for vaccine concepts in their ability to suppress initial replication in upper respiratory tract (hence likelihood of ending infection chains)? | 21:51 |
| yuriwho | if you look at kizzy's data, the lower does of the Moderna vaccine do not protect the nasal epithelia, just the higher doses | 21:52 |
| ryouma | just to confirm, lower igg in nose /because/ more neutralizing antibodies? i.e. negative feedback? | 21:52 |
| yuriwho | de-facto: I think we are still learning about this | 21:53 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. ok. interesting. | 21:53 |
| tinwhiskers | but there's no reason to think that bias is specific to the Moderna vaccine at this stage? | 21:53 |
| yuriwho | ryouma: no, IgG's are generally lower in the nose.... boost the overall lvl's and it also goes up in the nose | 21:54 |
| tinwhiskers | ah | 21:54 |
| yuriwho | tinwhiskers: I do not believe there is a bias | 21:54 |
| tinwhiskers | "the lower does of the Moderna vaccine do not protect the nasal epithelia" but they still protect the lungs <- that bias. | 21:55 |
| de-facto | i mean it would be very good news it current first gen vaccines really posses the ability to suppress the status of being infectious to the environment after being challenged with the wild type | 21:55 |
| yuriwho | you might expect that a nasal oral vaccine might produce more immunity in the upper respiratory tract due the method of inoculation, but we do not have any hard data on that for this virus yet | 21:55 |
| yuriwho | I have to AFK, picking up my son | 21:56 |
| tinwhiskers | ok. later | 21:56 |
| de-facto | thanks for the insight | 21:57 |
| ryouma | comments on the italy thing i read was that it was serology without pcr confirmation so not really trustable | 21:57 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, I was hoping to hear yuriwho's opinion on that one too | 21:58 |
| tinwhiskers | but there have also been several PCR confirmed studies along the same lines even if that one wasn't. | 21:59 |
| tinwhiskers | in fact most of them have been PCR confirmed afaik | 21:59 |
| tinwhiskers | that's part of what makes it so puzzling | 21:59 |
| de-facto | the italy thingy? | 22:00 |
| de-facto | this here? https://sci-hub.se/10.1177/0300891620974755 | 22:00 |
| tinwhiskers | de-facto: yeah, that and several other studies involving sewerage, etc. | 22:01 |
| tinwhiskers | and just for the record, again, I'm not saying they are wrong but it's very puzzling that we did not see enough severe cases to notice anything. | 22:02 |
| de-facto | yeah i remember we talked about it some time ago | 22:02 |
| de-facto | exactly | 22:02 |
| de-facto | btw LjL your link is accessible like above if you did not find access to it yet | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Boris Johnson self-isolating after being in contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19 → https://is.gd/blAYz8 | 22:05 |
| ryouma | i think doctors are quite capable of missing stuff in most diseases anyway. maybe they are ok with acute viral infections'? | 22:14 |
| ryouma | but if it was highly contagious then you'd wonder why it lay dorman | 22:14 |
| ryouma | t | 22:14 |
| tinwhiskers | There may be several explanations: A) it was circulating in Italy and there were severe cases but they were not identified as a new disease, B) it was circulating but was a less severe form and became more severe in the variant that arrived in Wuhan, C) it wasn't circulating in Italy but both the PCR primers were detecting a similar but different variant, and neutralising antibodies for SARS-Cov2 were also somewhat effective against | 22:17 |
| tinwhiskers | that variant. | 22:17 |
| de-facto | in an unaware and fully susceptible population the full R0 would have to be assumed for replication, if enough clusters were active that it could have been seen in the sewer, why would not explode as it did later on then? | 22:18 |
| tinwhiskers | err, in C) I mean a different coronavirus, not a different variant. | 22:19 |
| tinwhiskers | de-facto: yes, that's why I *really really* want to see a sequence. That would be very compelling. | 22:19 |
| de-facto | yet they only provided those fragments we linked to last time we discussed it | 22:20 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 22:20 |
| tinwhiskers | It's a fascinating puzzle either way, and I can't wait to see some sequences to put the story together. | 22:24 |
| de-facto | indeed | 22:26 |
| de-facto | hopefully we will see full sequences one day | 22:26 |
| kreyren__ | %cases usa | 22:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +131947 cases (now 11.3 million), +591 deaths (now 251717) since 23 hours ago — France: +27228 cases (now 2.0 million), +302 deaths (now 44548) since a day ago — Arizona, US: +2383 cases (now 275436), +2 deaths (now 6302) since a day ago — Canada: +4054 cases (now 295370), +52 deaths (now 10950) since a day ago | 22:28 |
| Brainstorm | kreyren__: In US, there have been 11.3 million confirmed cases (3.4% of the population) and 251717 deaths (2.2% of cases) as of 9 minutes ago. 166.7 million tests were performed (6.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 22:28 |
| ryouma | are there relevant bats in both places? | 22:31 |
| ryouma | (not that it couldn't be any place) | 22:31 |
| de-facto | well there is always traveling of (asymptomatic) human carriers also to be taken into consideration | 22:32 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, there are bats in Italy and yeah, they also have coronaviruses, but as you say if it was circulating that long ago it may not have come from Italy. | 22:32 |
| LjL | de-facto, tinwhiskers: "why would it not explode in a naive population" - i see a bit of a conflicting aspect of your thoughts on the matter here, honestly. on the one hand you sometimes say you're thoroughly puzzled by the way this virus mostly stopped replicating at the same time in wide areas of Europe, and then started replicating again, again at the same time. so that is to say, we *don't understand* why and how the R changes. but then on the other | 22:32 |
| LjL | hand you are extremely skeptical on these studies because you *assume* there had to be strong, sustained replication from the start. if we know that we don't know, then why should we act as if we knew? | 22:32 |
| LjL | if these antibodies were tested with an ELISA assay they aren't going to be antibodies against something else, incidentally | 22:33 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't act like I know. On the other hand you seem convinced it it true. | 22:33 |
| tinwhiskers | despite the obvious puzzle it presents | 22:33 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, no, i am not *convinced* it is true, you get this impression because of the backlash i give to the fact you, and now tons of people on reddit, seem convinced it can't be true | 22:34 |
| tinwhiskers | In my three possible explanations, two of them say, yes it could have been happening. | 22:34 |
| LjL | and that seems irrational, and when someone says "extraordinary claims blah blah" but then puts the evidence bar at "i will accept basically nothing", i wonder a bit | 22:34 |
| tinwhiskers | I will accept sequences. | 22:34 |
| bolovanos | hithere - sry for jumping directly in - can I have discussed link? | 22:34 |
| ryouma | well why did they not do sequences | 22:34 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, yes, and as to A), i *told* you that doctors here have said (since a long time already) that we *did* have many unexplained and atypical pneumonias at least in december | 22:35 |
| LjL | we just have a shitty reporting system, evidently | 22:35 |
| tinwhiskers | well, that may be it | 22:35 |
| LjL | since doctors pointed this out later but at the time nobody did anything about it | 22:35 |
| de-facto | LjL, yeah i dont understand the dynamics, all I am asking is if we know from the outbreak in 2020 how it would explode in a naive population, why would it not have done back then if enough carriers were present to show up in sewer samples | 22:35 |
| euod[m] | I don't think there's really any reporting systems to speak of, right? if I showed up to my doctor with an unexplained illness I highly doubt that's reported anywhere else. | 22:35 |
| LjL | de-facto, maybe we don't know how it explodes in a naive population, but we only know how it explodes *after* it's been there for a while. | 22:35 |
| LjL | i think that's the scientifically important possibility | 22:35 |
| ryouma | ...................... i don't buy it | 22:36 |
| LjL | since as you often said, we don't are if it's china's "fault" or italy's "fault" or whatever. but it would be important to know if the virus has a "silent" phase | 22:36 |
| tinwhiskers | We know in countries that it arrives in that it explodes straight away | 22:36 |
| tinwhiskers | Unless it was different then it doesn't stack up. | 22:36 |
| ryouma | the one we know about enters coutnries and immediately explodes. or can. | 22:36 |
| LjL | ryouma, in the sewage study, THEY SEQUENCED | 22:36 |
| euod[m] | we have the genetic tracing to prove where things came from, too. | 22:36 |
| de-facto | if we understood an answer to that question it would be beneficial since if we knew why it would have fuzzled away the first time we might employ that knowledge in containment strategies | 22:36 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: no, they didn't | 22:36 |
| LjL | before i said THEY SEQUENCED, y'all were like "oh but they did not sequence, invalid" | 22:36 |
| LjL | then i'm like, look, they sequenced a portion | 22:36 |
| LjL | and you were like "oh but they did not sequence the whole genome" | 22:37 |
| ryouma | i like your ghetto accent | 22:37 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm not sure why you're so rabid about the possibility it may not be real. | 22:37 |
| bolovanos | link pls :) | 22:38 |
| tinwhiskers | considering the obvious epidemiological issues that appear if *this* variant was cycling in September. | 22:38 |
| LjL | i'm rabid about the fact i am apparently unable to explain why it seems so obvious to me that you're requiring an unreasonable amount of evidence | 22:38 |
| de-facto | bolovanos, https://sci-hub.se/10.1177/0300891620974755 | 22:38 |
| LjL | but i should stop being rabid because i just ate and i already feel like i'm failing at digestion | 22:38 |
| ryouma | are we saying there is sufficient evidence? | 22:38 |
| LjL | so let's do something | 22:38 |
| LjL | 7close | 22:38 |
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